Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - ya

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 32
1
Watch the inflows. Things are moving again


2
I didn't quite follow PR's discussion of Stablecoins.

See above

3
We had discussed that after April, the filings would show who's buying BTC ETF's.

Here's a thread by Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1790885903084216627

4
"Now that the pension fund manager of the State of Wisconsin has disclosed its $162m #Bitcoin allocation, it's only a matter of time before every single state pension fund makes the same move.

Then every university endowment.
Every family office.
Every wealth manager.
Fund manager.
Every corporate treasury."

6
Paul Ryan on Stablecoins. This makes sense.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1790540747466223921

At this time the US is concerned that many bond auctions are not going well, i.e. people are not buying US treasuries. Many countries like China are selling, Japan wants to sell, and others are worried about holding, because the US govt can confiscate them. Yet the more money we print (which is necessary to pay off our debt in cheaper dollars), the more the value of the $ declines and people want to buy less US $/treasuries.

The USDT (Tether) stable coin is most popular because it is backed by US Treasuries, and that has been audited. USDT can be printed at will, but the twist here is that they buy an equal number of US Treasuries. tether has now become one of the very large holders of US treasuries (i.e. a new demand source), it is international and not a US company. 1 USDT=1 US$, this makes it very useful for purchasing crypto, particularly outside the US as the exchange risk of the $ declining in local currency is no longer there. USDT can also be moved across crypto exchanges very easily, while the $ is cumbersome with reporting requirements and delays.

Paul Ryan is pointing out a new demand source worth Trillions, who will buy US Treasuries, there are other stable coins too, some from the US (less popular). this solves the immediate problem of the US finding buyers of Treasuries. I think this is a great source of new demand, but ultimately the US will overprint and no one will buy USDT! either. At that time, the US will be ready to move to a Bitcoin Standard, which cannot be overprinted. I think things are moving along well.

7
Now the US changes its tune on India. First, India was villified for buying Russian oil, now the US claims, they wanted India to buy Russian oil all along. Apparently India is a loyal country to America.
American Amb Garcetti
https://twitter.com/i/status/1789536197657641184

8
Now that April is over, there are multiple reports of this fund or that adding BTC to their portfolios. The most interesting one is below from Europe. These UCIT funds are 12 Trillion Euros in assets, even a percentage or two, could have massive effects. HK is discussing with China to allow mainland chinese to buy BTC ETF's. Things are moving, just slowly.

https://twitter.com/paddi_hansen/status/1788877780215591137

9
Mr.Dhume is a well known India basher, sort of like a democrat who cant stand Republican achievements.

"Despite this progress, India still faces many challenges. Here’s the glass-half-empty version of the story: India’s economic performance looks much less impressive when contrasted with that of other countries. India’s per capita GDP ($2,730) is about 1/30th of America’s ($85,370) and about one-fifth of China’s ($13,140). Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, estimates that at current growth rates it will take 75 years before per capita GDP in India reaches a quarter of the U.S. figure.

And there’s no guarantee this will happen. According to World Bank research, most poor countries hit a wall at 10% of U.S. per capita GDP. At current growth rates, it could take decades for India simply to catch up with Indonesia, which has a per capita GDP of $5,270."

There is much that can be discussed re: this passage of his. Fair to say, India will be the 3rd largest economy within the next 3 years, ahead of Germany and Japan. Thats good enough for the present.

11
Please see projected baseline  monthly returns for BTC. We are in the 5th epoch. Note the Standard Deviation too. The full article can be read here. BTC follows the power law, will post it  later. Per the article, the CAGR is 35 %/year for the next 4 years. This jives with the calculator that I posted earlier. https://substack.com/home/post/p-144303111


13
Here are the demographics of India vs China. In the long run, India will beat China


14
GBTC had its first 63 mill inflow today (after approx 80 days of outflows).


15
Biden just insulted India and Japan, said their economy is stagnating because they dont take in immigrants and are xenophobic.

fact: India has the fastest growing economy in the world. US had made adverse comments when India gave citizenship to non-muslims from Pak and Afghanistan!. India gets a lot of illlegal immigration from Bangladesh & Myanmar (muslim Rohingyas).


17
Watch for decentralized ID. MSTR is the company and BTC is the medium. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/dids-built-on-bitcoin-fix-the-web

18
Note the newly added HK ETF's, pretty good accumulation for 1 day


19
This interesting tweet on the Yen and BTC. Please read it carefully. There is no out, just one of two bad outcomes for Japan and soon for the USA.

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1785592330377896205

20
This is a fantastic read, the yen is breaking down. Currency crisis is cooking. Will the US govt weaken the $, to save the Yen...which is positive for BTC.

https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/tokyo-drifting-into-a-currency-crisis

21
Politics & Religion / Re: Gov. Kristi Noem
« on: April 28, 2024, 08:00:23 AM »
She shot her puppy, and her foot.

22
This model will blow your mind. use model 4 or 6, see explanations. It uses end of last years price to keep the model conservative. At the very least it talks about the expected CAGR. All models can be wrong!!

https://bitcoincompounding.com/


23
Hong Kong ETF goes live next week, its a smaller market than the US. Consolidation for now.

26
I personally expect around 200 K, but who knows.  This time the institutions are on board and things could get wild. In a week the Hong Kong ETF goes live, this will have some impact, but not as much as the US ETF's. There are multiple funds now starting to report their holdings of the ETF's. Overall, things are looking good.

27
Politics & Religion / Coinbase BTC ad.
« on: April 22, 2024, 04:56:43 AM »
BTC ad. Coinbase has always been anti BTC, because they made their money from $hitcoins. But now even they are changing.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1782231740368507218

28
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 21, 2024, 08:00:07 PM »
Martin Armstrong has been saying war is coming for months. His Socrates arrays and other models point to May 7 for something big. Thats also the day Putin is sworn in office. This is a big projection...so lets see how it goes.

29
To confiscate Russian assets, the bill must be approved in the Senate too.

30
If this is approved, thats likely the end of the US $ as global reserve currency. Why would any nation hold US $/Treasuries if it can be confiscated. The world already lost trust, when we kicked Russia from transacting on SWIFT. This is good for BTC and gold.


31
Wokeness is destroying America., will leave it at that!.

32
ETF flows have been consolidating.



33
This presents a different angle. Choose your number, as to how how high BTC goes this cycle. Blue, Red or Green line (previous BTC runs after the halving). This time we have the institutions joining in, Hong Kong going live with in kind BTC ETF this month for capturing Eastern money flows, countries starting to buy/mine BTC.


34
BTC is supposedly not going up fast enough, but we were at 8.5K at the last halving, this time we were nearly at 64 K. No one who has held BTC for 4 years has been at a loss.



35
Politics & Religion / Alexander Dugin on India
« on: April 20, 2024, 04:27:31 AM »
I was impressed with the understanding of India by Alexander Dugin, a Russian thinker close to Putin. His understanding of things is very close to that of the Indian mind. Have not seen any other Western commentator, and definitely no American commentator with this level of accuracy. Dugin by the way says Russia should side with China!, which may be the correct response for Russia.

https://twitter.com/Agdchan/status/1781435242865123423



36
Politics & Religion / No BRICs currency
« on: April 19, 2024, 04:51:29 AM »

38
The pullback at this time, close to the halving is a well known phenomenon (15-30 %). Happened the last 3 times. It takes a few months for the reduction in supply to have an effect.
https://youtu.be/i1RGsduLxJ4

40
Are others seeing the images I just posted ?. Looks like a browser problem, because the images look fine to me.

41
I posted 2 images, nothing critical.

43
The BJP released their 2024 Election Manifesto. No direct mention of POK (but that would not be a good idea, as it would give the timing away). The below national defense related items were listed.

1.Continuing Zero Tolerance towards Terrorism: This is directed at Pak. They remind the readers of 2 previous surgical strikes against Pak.
2. Theaterization of Military Commands: For better efficiency. This will help in the next big war, and is China oriented. They have to be prepared for a two front war with Pak-China, along the NW borders, Eastern borders and in the sea.
3. Robust Infrastructure along the borders. They specifically  refer to India-Pak, India-China and India-Myanmar borders.
4. Reinforcing fight against drugs: This is Pak oriented, who sends a lot across their border.
5. Implementing the new Indian Penal Code: India used the old British rules, these have been updated to present times to deal with Terrorism and anti-national elements.
6.Implementation of the CAA: This is the new Citizenship act, where minorities (non muslims) of previous Indian territories (Pak, Afgh, Bangladesh) who sought shelter in India are given citizenship in India.
7. Enhance capabilities of armed forces and central armed forces (police) to deal with any threats.
8.National Forsensics Mission: To speed up crime related decisions.
9. To protect India's (Bharat) security interests in the Indian Ocean. This is China focussed.
10. Safeguarding India's Digital Sovereignty: This relates to internet based threats. India has low tolerance for misuse of FaceBook etc. Tik-Tok and tons of Chinese apps are banned.
11. Developing Robust Cybersecurity Policies.

Overall, all this is needed before we can fight China, but should the opportunity arise POK will be taken. Modi and the defense minister have said that many times. When the people of POK start demanding to merge with India, we will know its time.


45
aka, US shot itself in the foot. Who's winning now ?. The rise of gold portends lack of confidence in govt.



and then see how BTC does wrt to Gold


46
Politics & Religion / The Yen, US Bond Rates, and BTC
« on: April 11, 2024, 04:31:26 AM »
Here's a good explanation of why the Yen is important for US Bond rates and BTC.

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1778359505601908930

47
Hong Kong BTC ETF expected to trade by end of this month. This will bring a lot of Chinese money.

https://cryptonews.com/news/hong-kong-poised-to-unveil-first-spot-bitcoin-etfs-on-april-15.htm

48
This is just an attempt to needle India and keep it focussed on the land border, away from the Indo-Pacific which is China's weak point.

49
Each time BTC has closed for 2 months over the upper Bollinger band, it has doubled over the next few months. Interesting times ahead


50
With the election season heating up in India, everyone is waiting for the BJP (Modi's party) to issue their manifesto. The important thing is that they have completed about 90 % of the major promises made in the previous 2 election manifestos. Everyone is waiting to hear comments about POK. A second hot topic is to register all citizens (NRC bill). This would be key to preventing illegal immigration from Pak, Bangladesh, Myanmar border etc. Infact the NRC might be a pre-requisite to taking back POK, because of all the jihadis who will be trying to come in.

If anyone is interested, the 2019 manifesto is https://www.bjp.org/manifesto2019 page 11-12 has the national security aspects (all done).  They talk about the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Bill) which has irked the US for no reason. This is where they give citizenship to non-muslim refugees (Indians) from India before it was partitioned (Afghanistan Pak, Bangladesh), after 75 years of independence!. Removal of article 370/35 A from Kashmir, which was thought to be "permanent" and a source of corruption and Paki interference. Since the removal of article 370, there is now peace in Kashmir, violence has died down and development is proceeding at a rapid pace.

In election rallies, Modi speaks of his "guarantee" that he will do what he says.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 32