Fire Hydrant of Freedom

If Trump is winning, there is going to be a lot of ticket splitting as a check on power.

This isn't a campaign for Trump or against Biden.  This is a fight over direction of the country.  Ticket splitting won't change the direction of the country and we need to sell hard against that.  Must persuade people that Dem policies are wrong and hurting everyone.  Their policies failed and they refused to change course.  These are our policies and they are proven to work. 

We need to sweep and it will still be hard to save the country.  Divided government isn't a win.

Best House poll is probably the generic congress poll and it is basically even.  We need to do better than that.  (The leadership crises in the House don't help.)
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

Where is the Contract with America, 2024?

... because we don't have enough trouble right now?

Biden also looking to bring in the Mexicans, the Hondurans, Guatamalans, Salvadorans, Venezuelans, Haitians and the Somalians, did I miss any?

Did he get the ones already here assimilated?  'E Pluribus Unum'?

Not really off-topic, "Somalian-Americans" pulled off the greatest fraud known so far of all the Covid free money:  70 defendants, almost all Somalian, $250 million stolen.  Fed millions of meals to starving children - except they didn't.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/feeding-our-fraud-goes-to-trial.php

https://frontline.news/post/kill-switch-to-be-mandated-in-cars-by-2026-with-software-deciding-if-you-re-too-impaired-to-drive

If you're too impaired to drive ... also if you're too conservative to drive or going somewhere not approved by the regime.

How many programs start small and innocent and then become monstrous?  All of them, always.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/huge-majority-americans-support-israel-instead-hamas-poll

80% of Americans support Israel instead of Hamas: Harris Poll

The report by the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll found older voters supported Israel more than younger voters, with over 90% of voters older than 54 claiming they support Israel over Hamas. Among voters aged 45 to 54, 85% said they support Israel, and three quarters of the next bracket down said the same. But among younger voters aged 18-24, just 57% said they support Israel, and 64% of voters 25 to 34 said the same.

The majority of Americans (61%) only want a cease-fire if Hamas is removed from power and the hostages it took are freed. However, 39% support an unconditional cease-fire.

[Doug]  The more recently they've been in a public school classroom, the more anti-Israel they tend to be.

Still it's an 80/20 issue that has Republicans on the right side.

If Trump wins Minnesota, formerly the most liberal state, this is officially a landslide.

Left site "538" reports Survey USA poll, likely voters, from earlier this month:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/
April 3-7
608   LV   
SurveyUSA
KSTP-TV (St. Paul, Minn.), KAAL-TV (Austin, Minn.), WDIO-DT (Duluth, Minn.)   Biden   44%
Trump  42%
Biden   +2

Not a reliable poll but the trend is Trump.

This is a big part of the push for EVs.

Like the Left said under Trump,  RESIST!

I wouldn't mind driving an electric car.  But not as my only vehicle and not one that connects to the internet or can be controlled or hacked remotely.

https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/29/majority-of-voters-still-back-border-wall-stiff-immigration-controls-ii-tipp-poll/

The poll gave respondents a choice of five options:

1. Build a wall, and rigidly enforce all other existing border laws;

2. Build a wall, rigidly enforce all other existing border laws, and deport those who have come here illegally, especially those with criminal records;

3. Tighten the border somewhat, but remember that “America is a nation of immigrants” and we can’t deport all of those who are here illegally;

4. We’re a nation of immigrants, open the border to all who want to come in;

5. Not sure.

The overall most popular response was also the toughest. That was No. 2, chosen by 42%. No. 1, which similarly called for a crackdown on border crossings and a border wall but didn’t include deportation as a possibility, garnered 16% of all responses.

That’s a 58% majority favoring at minimum a wall and more border enforcement, and a plurality of 42% favoring deportations to go along with the increased border controls.

Answer No. 3 picked up 27% support.

When you total it all up, 85% of Americans want greater enforcement of border laws, though to varying degrees. Just 6% agreed with the “open border” response, 8% said they were “not sure.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/all-the-data-shows-inflation-isnt-going-away-making-things-tough-on-fed.html
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[Doug]  If the Fed tries to stimulate the economy for the election with rate cuts in the middle of way over target inflation, they will lose what little credibility they have left.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cars-obey-speed-limits-automatically-134437613.html?guccounter=1

"When fitted, the technology will send a warning beep or the steering wheel will vibrate when drivers pass the speed limit. If the driver does not take action, the accelerator will ease up, reducing the speed to keep in line with the limit."

Feature will be offered as an "option".  Driver can switch it on and off.  Sure.  Here we go again with Lucy and the football.  How many things were sold to us that way?

Is anyone here a golfer?  When you rent a golf cart today, they might tell you to stay on the cart path. Don't get close to the green or tees. Then if you do, the GPS senses it and shut's off your vehicle. It only allows you to switch to reverse and back out. 

The central planners want central control of your vehicle, all vehicles.

A friend made fun of the age of my car.  I didn't think to tell him, I prefer vehicles built before they had a government shutoff switch.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/04/28/watch_police_use_force_while_arresting_green_party_presidential_candidate_jill_stein_at_pro-palestinian_protest.html

There is a video interview at the link.  Getting arrested might be her big break.  For a radical, she sounds quite reasonable.  Democrats, especially young Democrats, the 50% that support Hamas should take a look at her.  (I hope she divides the party and the Left vote.)

She isn't going away.  She isn't going to endorse Joe Biden in the end.

Like Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000, he said (paraphrasing), 'I didn't cost Al Gore the election.  Those weren't his votes I took.  They were my votes.'

This anti Israel movement is anti Netanyahu and equally anti Biden.

It's dangerous and sad for the country but division could be helpful in ending the reign of the Left.  Radicals and normal Democrats shouldn't be in the same party.  If Joe tries to be more centrist to win the center he will lose the Left.  They ca start saying 'uniparty'.

Recall how we watched the Republicans (in the House for example) struggle to keep  their members in line while Democrats all lined up behind Nancy Pelosi.

This threatens all that.

She rips into RFK as well, no ally there.

Jewish heritage, (Israel hater).  Way more articulate than Bernie Sanders.  Now she has an audience and an anti-war cause, speaking up against the crackdown on the college 'protests'.

https://en.wikipedia.org//wiki/Jill_Stein
In 1973, Stein graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, where she studied psychology, sociology, and anthropology.[7] She then attended Harvard Medical School and graduated in 1979.[7] Stein practiced internal medicine for 25 years[8] at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Simmons College Health Center, and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, which are all located in the Boston area. She also served as an instructor of medicine at Harvard Medical School.[9]

https://samf.substack.com/p/escalation-red-lines-risk-and-the

Read in entirety.  Not fair to excerpt, but here is a current observation:

"Even if Trump wins the presidential election in November, that does not guarantee Putin a satisfactory outcome. Trump will want to push his peace plan but, from what has been reported, Putin will find the details as unacceptable as will Zelenskyy. Having publicly boasted for the past six months that Russia had seized the initiative in the war, Putin must now contemplate the possibility that it might yet again swing towards Ukraine."

Mohamed El-Erian is economist for Allianz, the world's largest insurance company and writes for major publications.  I think he tries to analyze without bias but being a centrist puts him a ways to the Left.  For the most part he sees and acknowledges both sides.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127470/mohamed-elerian-explains-how-recalibrate-expectations-face-yet-another-forecasting

He comments here on blown forecasts and factors affecting outlooks for the near term.

I hate to excerpt because there are other important point, but...

" It is easy to imagine how today’s “stable disequilibrium” could give way to a more volatile disequilibrium, which would then fuel financial instability."
...
"I put the chance of a US soft landing at around 50%; the probability of a (misleadingly named) “no landing” – higher growth with no additional inflationary pressures and genuine financial stability – at around 15%; and the chance of recession and new threats of financial instability at 35%."
...
(From earlier in the article)
"Sticky inflation combined with slower growth will put the Fed between a rock and a hard place. Faced with growth uncertainties and the new global paradigm of insufficiently flexible aggregate supply, the Fed will need to decide whether to stick with its 2% inflation target or allow for a slightly higher one, at least for now."

  - He's right but a higher inflation target is not acceptable.

"Many advanced economies have embarked on a transition from a world of deregulation, liberalisation, and fiscal prudence to one oriented around industrial policy, renewed regulation, and sustained budget deficits on a scale that would have been unthinkable previously."

  - (Doug) There's the problem.

(Doug continued)  Inflation (price level) has to do with the ratio of the supply of money to the amount of goods and services produced.  The emphasis goes to the tools of the Fed like interest rates but not to the other side of the equation, the anti-growth policies stifling production of goods and services.

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/01/12/reflecting-on-obamas-presidency/obamas-embrace-of-drone-strikes-will-be-a-lasting-legacy

Who would have been the loudest voice opposing this - if he wasn't the commander in chief ordering it.

At some point more CO2 has little or no additional warming effect.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666496823000456

[Far Left] They're getting the [George Floyd riots] band back together with another phony, wrong headed cause.

If it succeeds, it will tear apart the Democrat Party.

Do you think any of these kooks will come to Chicago for the convention?

In the George Floyd riots, they [the Far Left and everyone who joined them] were fighting Democrat power as well, Democrat-run cities and police departments.

No Republican-run cities were affected (because there aren't any).

Interesting to get a beginning sense of where we stand as a people on this.

It's going to be very contentious but interesting to see 42% are not in synch with their party on this.

Posted previously, places like Whitewater Wisconsin are border towns now, not just NYC.

Trump won on this issue in 2016 and it's WAY worse now.

The mechanics of mass deportation have not been visualized.  I would start by looking at the welfare rolls and the arrest records.  Let's get the most costly ones out first and the most productive ones out last, if at all.

The start of deportations will slow the flow inward.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/jon-stewart-skewers-the-medias-trump-coverage.php

It's year 10 of the Trump Presidential race coverage.  I assume his studio audience is filled with liberals and for the first time they actually laugh at themselves and their fascination with everything that is not the issue on trial.

This is a breakthrough in media IMHO.  CNN ran an antisemitism article on Columbia.  Bill Maher said abortion is murder but it's ok.  NPR is exposed for what it is.

Maybe we are at some kind of inflection point.  What if salt of the earth Democrats heard both sides of stories instead of just Narrative News?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/opinions/columbia-university-protests-greenblatt/index.html

ccp:  we are doing better then all other countries in the world
not mentioned no we are not:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/01/oecd-gdp-growth-bounceback/
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Plus, that wasn't the bar.  We're supposed to be leader of the free world.

Where are we leading them?

Global Debt was 226 trillion in Biden's first year, 2021.
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion

Global Debt hits record 307 trillion in Biden's 3rd year, Sept 2023.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-debt-hits-record-307-trillion-debt-ratios-climb-iif-2023-09-19/

This is while the world is climbing out of Covid shutdowns.

Global debt hits new record high of 313 trillion, Feb 2024.
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-debt-hits-new-record-high-313-trillion-iif-2024-02-21/

If we are leading the world, it is downward. 

Bidenomics  =  Debt -onomics

Biden's going to pay off student loans?  No he's not.  He's not paying off anything.  He's taking us further and further down a debt hole.  Why do young people let him lie to them?

We used to joke the motto on our business card was: 'We're no worse than our competitors', to see if that would sell.

Biden's line is, 'you may be screwed by real wages falling for 4 years, but we're no worse than the rest of the world, Zimbabwe, Haiti and so on'.

'We're willing to pay out trillions of dollars of your future years' wages for your vote today.'



https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/what-is-global-debt-why-high/

NYT Today!

Boston University Law Professor Jed Handelsman Shugerman:

About a year ago, when Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, indicted former President Donald Trump, I was critical of the case and called it an embarrassment. I thought an array of legal problems would and should lead to long delays in federal courts.

After listening to Monday’s opening statement by prosecutors, I still think the Manhattan D.A. has made a historic mistake. Their vague allegation about “a criminal scheme to corrupt the 2016 presidential election” has me more concerned than ever about their unprecedented use of state law and their persistent avoidance of specifying an election crime or a valid theory of fraud.  (Source: nytimes.com)


Exactly what WE said.

https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922/

It's worse than just the highest rate EVER on capital investment.

From the link:

Biden’s proposed capital gains tax hike will also hit many families when parents pass away. Biden has proposed adding a second Death Tax (separate from and in addition to the existing Death Tax) by taking away stepped-up basis when parents die. This would result in a mandatory capital gains tax at death — a forced realization event.

As previously reported by CNBC:

“When someone dies and the asset transfers to an heir, that transfer itself will be a taxable event, and the estate is required to pay taxes on the gains as if they sold the asset,” said Howard Gleckman, senior fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

Biden’s proposal to take away stepped-up basis has already been tried, and it failed: In 1976 congress eliminated stepped-up basis but it was so complicated and unworkable it was repealed before it took effect.

As noted in a July 3, 1979 New York Times article, it was “impossibly unworkable.”

NYT wrote:

“Almost immediately, however, the new law touched off a flood of complaints as unfair and impossibly unworkable. So many, in fact, that last year Congress retroactively delayed the law’s effective date until 1980 while it struggled again with the issue.“

As noted by the NYT, intense voter blowback ensued:

“Not only were there protests from people who expected the tax to fall on them — family businesses and farms, in particular — bankers and estate lawyers also complained that the rule was a nightmare of paperwork.“


Larger point is:  People create wealth in order to leave it to the next generation, to leave each generation better off than we were.  [When they create the wealth for themselves it's called consumption.]

All these people want to leave the next generation is failed socialism and debt.

The Left wants that whole concept of leaving the next generation better off destroyed.  They don't want just the majority dependent on the government; they want ALL dependent on the government.

Fine, but if all ride in the wagon, who pulls the wagon?

And back to the first point, these policies don't bring in more money to pay for the government - exposing their real vulnerability, they don't care about paying for the government.  If they wanted government paid for, they would have to spend less.

She could have been top of the ticket on the 'No Labels" non-party.  She declined because, my read, she would have lost and caused Trump and the Republicans to lose and it would have been career ending in the sense of wanting to be President.  Being the first woman elected President is something for the history books.

Assuming she wants to be President in the worst way and that can only happen through the Republican party and she is committed to the Republican party having given up the only other path, the path runs through Trump.

My guess is she will jump on board and maybe wait for the latest, most dramatic moment to do that, likely in the convention keynote, a coveted spot she only gets if she comes through for him.

And if the above is correct, she will come through and come through big, why not make her VP?  I hope he doesn't, but she might help him the most to win and he wants/needs to win.

Trump is strongly liked by 50-60% of the R party, that's only 25-30% of the electorate.  Biden is weakly liked by a similar number.  Other than ballot harvesting tricks, this election will be won either by 'reluctant' Trump voters or by Trump haters who don't like Biden but will vote to stop Trump. 

As you say, Trump should be up by 10 or more but he isn't.  Haley could tip that balance.
-------------------
Otherwise the VP slot is almost unsolvable.  It should go to whoever would best follow Trump as President or nominee, whether he wins or loses.  To me, that is DeSantis but he can't.  If not Haley, the next in line from this race is Vivek who is not widely liked but could be a fireball on the campaign and would govern conservatively and smartly if the top job became his.  I prefer Vivek but I also prefer winning.

The largest of the swing groups I think is white suburban women voters.  Win them and you've won Minnesota.  Win MN and you've won a landslide.  Haley might be the best way to reach them, not Vivek, not Trump.
-------------------
I know moderates, 2020 Biden voters, who say they would vote Republican if the nominee was Haley, or someone like that.  Putting her on the ticket puts them on the spot. It would still be a Trump Presidency.  It would at least make them more tempted.

OTOH she came out as a hawk in general and on Ukraine in particular.  Right now that seems to be the fight on the right, very unpopular with some.  Her nomination would piss a number of people off.  Wasn't she weak on illegal immigration as well? Does the far right vote Trump anyway?  Yes but who needs that fight.

Definitely a conundrum.

Local company having trouble getting ransomwarers to keep their word.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/04/23/UnitedHealth-Group-cyberattack-blackcat/3951713899108/

They REQUIRE us to do business with one of these giant firms, require us to give them our social security numbers, birthdays, address, and everything else down to our blood sugar count and next of kin.  Then THIS happens and all our alphabet agencies are too busy targeting conservatives on trumped up charges to give a rip.

In this ever polarizing world, why don't we go after these areas where we can all agree?  But no...

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/us-gdp-economy-first-quarter-2024-1675df05

3+ years of chopping away at the foundations of growth and growth slows.

Did ANYONE see this coming.

Slow growth (or none) but inflation lives on, eating up all gains.  65% say we're on the wrong track.  Majority prefer the challenger to better handle the economy.

Reminds me of another one term President.

Policies have consequences.  EVERY policy of this administration is a hindrance to private sector growth. They choose policies that poll well, but the resulting stagflation does not poll well at all.

------------

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-q1-2024-increased-at-a-1point6percent-rate.html

The 'experts estimate for growth was 50% higher.

BIG disappointment.

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1783184198477508785

It took me a while to figure out just how dumb this guy is, whether he's losing his marbles or not.

He's reading the card, starts the crowd favorite, "four more years", then reads aloud the word "pause". 

Tell me this is AI.  No one is that dumb, dementia or not.

How many months left on the campaign trail, May, June, July, August, September, October and part of November? Trump is silenced and Biden gets to go out everyday on the campaign trail.  Who does this favor?