Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Looks like BTC is doing BTC things (going up suddenly). BTC goes up, when the US $ goes down. At some point the USD will go down again after its current strengthening phase and that is when BTC will rise.

In the meantime the Biden admin is back to its old playbook of supporting Pak with arms. Trump stopped it in 2018, Biden restarted it, to a country which harbored Bin Laden. 9/11 is now a distant memory.
I suppose its payback for India buying oil from Russia, but this is the exact reason why the India-US relationship remains transactional. Everytime there is a step forward, sooner or later it slides back.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-approves-450-million-f-16-fleet-sustainment-programme-to-pakistan-101662610278368.html

For long Russia threatened that Ukr joining NATO would be a red line...Kamala harris said Ukr should join Nato, next day Russia invaded. Then Russia said, oil pipelines would be shut down, after 6 months Nordstream 1 is shut down. Now Russia is threatning to use cryptocurrencies (BTC) for oil payments (see below), this too will happen at some point. Once they start pricing oil in BTC, that could be the end of the petrodollar. Oil is currently indirectly priced in gold as the rouble is linked to the price of gold. Similarly, any trade in Yuan is freely convertable to gold at the Shanghai exchange (from what I read).

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/russia-legalize-use-cryptocurrency-international-trade-report

I dont follow Indian stocks...but today India became the 5th largest economy in the world, displacing its colonial master UK. I would not invest abroad, due to the strength of the US $. One must wait, until the Fed pivots or cuts rates.

Yes, the strength of the US$ is destroying the emerging markets as well as developed markets. In the meantime, India records a 13.5 % GDP for the quarter.

https://yourstory.com/2022/08/india-gdp-expands-135-pc-in-first-quarter-2022/amp

This is an amazing podcast, around 70 min gets better over time. Worth a listen as to what's happening to the US $.

https://youtu.be/hDwdximds_0

Very important Zoltan..

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5amR-YP34-V&t=-1e4y7st99l5d0a0be21hgr5ht

ETH is undergoing a move from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, around Sept 15, the so called merge. Looks like BTC has topped at 69K this cycle. This was the first cycle top, when there was no blow-off top, and one could assume the next cycle top is in 2025, per the halving schedule. As more people learn of BTC and buy into it, it is possible that there will no longer be blow-off tops, similarly the pull backs will be less pronounced, previous pullbacks were around 85 %, this time it was around 78%.

ETH is more volatile, dont expect it to ever become money or a store of value. It is a centralized coin, controlled by a few rich people. BTC is completely decentralized and the supply is fixed at 21 million.

I would like to leave an important read, below.

https://lookingglasseducation.com/whats-a-debt-spiral-and-is-the-us-already-in-one/

I found this gem in an unrelated video “That probably would include Australia, but it would certainly include India, and the Indian factor is one which Beijing does not wish to discuss openly. Even in the current war game posture against Taiwan, the PLA started moving additional forces down into the Tibetan plateau to be ready for an Indian response there. The Indian response would be massive. India has a similar force capability in many respects to the People’s Republic of China, and could move the entirety of its forces against the PRC, both on the Tibetan plateau and in the Eurasian context, but also in the Indian Ocean in a naval context,” he added."

https://youtu.be/lG0phJFEvZY

Here's one more thing.
https://www.deccanherald.com/national/after-pelosi-s-visit-to-taiwan-now-india-snubs-china-on-tibet-deploys-military-chopper-to-fly-dalai-lama-in-ladakh-1135009.html
Modi also wished the Dalai Lama Happy Birthday, an activity frowned upon by China. Now the D.Lama getting to fly on military choppers!

- I will add, that Rajnath Singh, India's Defense Minister recently gave a speech (albeit in a War memorial Setting),  with certain religious allegories that POK will be India's soon. The story has been consistent from various cabinet ministers, timing likely to be before 2024 elections. Now with the strong dollar causing havoc even in India, it might give the politicians an incentive to start a war. Pak is essentially bankrupt, populace is angry and suffering, they too need a diversion.  Its been a while that Pak has not created a big terror incident in India. So if China or Pak would please do the honors...

- This year the govt has started a new scheme  to encourage people to have a flag in every home for Independence day (Aug 15), particularly in Kashmir. There are plenty of videos with Kashmiri adults and young kids singing Indian songs and allegiance to India. This has not happened before, infact Kashmiris only raised Pak flags in the past. All of this is to create an image for POK to join India. The Govt has also spent a ton of money to improve the situation in Kashmir, with jobs and development, violence has almost disappeared. The people of POK must support the merger and the govt is doing everything it can to show a contrast with Pak, who currently manages POK (disastrously).

I will keep documenting such changes...hopefully am reading the tea leaves correctly..

Over time, I expect Taiwan will be taken over by China. Proximity to China does not work in Taiwan's favor. Same as for Hong Kong.

Re: Aircraft carriers being susceptible to missiles, China has claimed that their DF 21 missiles can do the job. I have also read elsewhere, not withstanding their claims, its not a simple job as AC have defenses. The same issue was brought up re: India's aircraft carriers and the Indian Navy are asking for a third AC. Apparently, the Indian navy thinks its not straight forward to down an AC. I agree the risk remains.

To down a US AC means full fledged war, which China will not win.

New Chinese video out https://twitter.com/i/status/1554086730067738624
Same playbook as with India. Probably same result too. i.e. China gets egg on its face. The US military, perhaps to get more funding has painted China as a powerful threat. While they are powerful, they are no military match. She Gin Ping needs a distraction, same as Biden. Win-Win.

Having seen previous China huffing and puffing wrt India, am not concerned. If things go awry, the Military takes over and Biden will just go along with them. China is very weak, IMHO.

Dont worry about the US military going woke, check out this supposed NATO meeting.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1551824119842357248

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-needless-death-and-misery

Nice write up by Arthur Hayes on the European situation
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/excalibur-44b2822dc4e6

"Not your keys, not your coins", Hardware wallets solve that.

Interesting article on China Taiwan
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/taiwan