Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Many $hitcoins are going to Zero this time, Luna, Hex and Celsius are a few examples. They are not coming back. History repeats.

BTC needs some time to mature, note what is happening to the BTC supply, very little supply will come over the next few years. Infact after 8 years, practically speaking no more new supply and anything new that is available, will likely be balanced by people losing their keys!. Patience is the name of the game. Several billionaires like Michael Saylor and Bill Miller in the US, Ricardo Salinas in Mexico and others have significant BTC holdings. OTOH, BTC demand is increasing world wide, with many jurisdictions making it legal tender. When demand increases and supply cannot meet it, prices go up. That is the reason you are seeing BTC hold its price around 29K, while the $hitcoins are going to zero. BTC could still go down to 22K, but it has never in its history gone below a previous all time high (20K). So, I wait and buy more, anytime I have some spare cash.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1530506101774376960

Martin Armstrong is anti-Crypto and is misinformed on BTC. But this is an important wide ranging interview and where we are headed, along with Ukr, Putin, Neocons, Money and how to handle the next few years. Not sure which thread would fit this..so here.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/interview-food-shortages-economic-collapse-the-failing-great-reset-how-to-prepare/

Slowly, then suddenly. Hyperbitcoinization will happen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/russia-reportedly-mulls-allowing-crypto-international-payments

Dotted pink/yellow areas are recent Russian advances

There is only one king...The $hitcoins are puking. Happens every cycle. Many will go to zero and a new crop of coins will be peddled to noobs, and the cycle of life begins again. See my previous chart on altcoin longevity. LTC is the longest living altcoin, but its lost its place too.

Why one should not buy $hitcoins

Ukraine could have held a referendum in Donbas (Minsk agreement) and agreed to Crimea as Russian territory. Its too late now. Russia is focussed on getting the whole of Donbas, once that is done, Odessa will be challenged and after that a land bridge to Transnystria. Over the longer term, Russia has more resources and potent weapons and will win.

The loss of the nazi Azov battalion was a big psychological victory for Russia and a loss for Ukr. After their surrender, Russia has been gaining territory and Zelensky is starting to talk peace.

Sometimes we tend to think, oh if only I had known about BTC earlier. The reality is most that held BTC early on sold a 20-30 % rally. It is really hard to hold BTC during the bear markets, which until recently have been 85 % pull backs several times. Today is BTC Pizza day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-pizza-day-time-regret-and-fantasy

Speculation is that Chinese govt is mining the coins for their treasury as a store of value (like gold), while the population is not allowed to use BTC, for it competes with their CBDC. There is this intetresting report about how Jack Dorsey, ex CEO Twitter plans to bring BTC mining to the people.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/block-investor-day-2022-talks-bitcoin

International game theory in action..El Salv Prez says 32 Central banks from developing countries and 44 country representatives attending. Sort of like, when one US state made marijuana legal, they all have to (otherwise lose tax revenue).

Probably nothing..

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1526029996787216387

I'm on the edge of cashing out at substantial loss (fortunately I limited how much I put in)

GBTC
BTC
ETH

I kinda thought an important part of the premise was that crypto protected against inflation and political uncertainty , , ,

Hope you are still in....while nothing is guaranteed...the long term (4 year) trend is up.

Russia is using some hardcore bombs...might be illegal.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525850300187258883

If anyone is invested in Celsius, time to get out...they had a large investment in Terra/Luna. The downstream effects of investors in LUNA may start to show up.

Important read on monetary policy and crypto by zoltan

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=54t3-WTBd-V

Yesterday BTC touched 25.5 K, and that was stressing to many including myself. A few random thoughts.
- While no one can predict the bottom, BTC is unlikely to go below 22K. Seehttps://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/if-the-price-changes-so-does-the?s=w
- I have over 4-5 years experience. Started by buying BTC and altcoins, over time I learnt that altcoins are all scams, did some trading and quickly focussed on BTC.
- I have never sold any BTC thro all the ups and downs, only added to my position.
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I am convinced that BTC will NOT go to zero, there are too many large companies and countries invested in it. It has survived everything thrown against it for the last 10 years. I have spent a lot of time and effort learning about it to have this conviction, which is what allows me to hold on when the going gets tough. Remember, even the US govt has never said they are going to ban BTC, infact the govt holds BTC (confiscated). So far, any 4 year holding period has been very profitable, but it comes with volatility, which is upward. Everyone should look at a BTC log chart on a weekly and monthly time frame. If the main premise of the bet is right, these minor fluctuations will not matter in the next 5 years.

So Hodl on...and never invest so much that you get sleep less nights.

So Kherson is about 10,900 sq miles, Donetsk is 3400 sq miles, Luhansk 3200 sq miles, plus a huge ton of other territory...40, 000- sq miles. Good time for Russia to quit, while ahead. Water supply to Crimea has been protected. I am still not understanding how Russia has lost ?., is it western media not reporting the truth, or perhaps I am missing something. Their dreams of taking Odessa and land bridge to Transnystria might have to wait.

If Finland and Sweden apply to join Nato...plans could change.

Overall, BTC is volatile enough. No need to buy Altcoins, 99% of which will go to zero. If BTC is expensive, think in terms of Satoshis. 0.1 BTC is not daunting to buy.
Altcoins are a crap shoot, but cycle wise they go up, after BTC has peaked. At this time it is not clear if BTC has peaked or is consolidating. I think its consolidating in a wide range.

With some luck the bottom is in, around 30 K for BTC.

What happens after bear markets is that BTC comes back, but many of the 8000 altcoins never come back. Every year the top 20 coins change, but BTC remains on top.

Next week Finland and Sweden decide if they submit their application to join Nato. Interesting times. Finland lost a significant chunk of land (Karjala) the last time they went to war with Russia.

I have been monitoring Ukr/Russia war progress. The only place where Ukr is making progress is around Kharkiv in the North East. This could be real progress, or that Russia has decided taking on Kharkiv the second largest city may be difficult and they are pulling back to defensible positions (from where they still shell Kharkiv). The middle sector, Russia is making small advances. Kherson, near Mykolaiv/Odessa is at a standstill for now. I think they will activate that front, once Mariupol is settled, in the meantime they regroup and replenish supplies etc. My hunch is Russia will make atleast one attempt for Odessa, because that land locks Ukraine, all other major ports are in Russian hands.

Inspite of all the neg news on Russia (poor morale, logistics etc), on the ground situation is still in Russia's favor. My back of the envelope visual math suggests Russia now occupies about 28,000 sq miles, not counting Crimea. Crimea is itself around 10,000 sq miles...so total about 40,000 sq miles in round numbers. Dont think Putin will return anything.

BTC is not yet in the clear, but a trend of higher lows. It would help if the US $ pulls back, but that may not happen if the Fed continues tightening for a few more times.

So who is buying Russian stuff. Note: the USA buys more than India and Europe buys a lot. Yet they pressure India to stop buying!