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Messages - ya

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701
I have not purchased ETH in years...but folks are talking about thousands in fees...

702
ETH fees, below.  BTC is a few cents.


703
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:28:03 PM »
If we keep sending weapons, a tactical weapon, perhaps an EMP device above Kiev is a distinct possibility. The USA is not likely to do much.

704
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:59:28 AM »
Pl. see this map and tell me how is Russia losing the war. The purple color is Russian speaking area before the invasion and the red pink is after the invasion. The red/pink areas will not be returned. Secondly, Russia has occupied the land mass adjacent to Crimea up to the Dnieper river, such that Ukr can no longer shut down the water supply to Crimea (which they did in the past). Yes, one can argue that its taking time, but Russia does care about public opinion and will not level everything.


705
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:36:13 AM »
There is a lot of discussion in the western press, that Russia is losing, mostly because it has not yet achieved its goals. It should have won as even Stratfor above says the expectation was "if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly".

The criteria for winning a war is to meet objectives and not necessarily timelines set up by the west. While the west keeps harping that Russia withdrew from Kyiv, could it be that was just a feint to draw Ukrainian troops to Kyiv while it gobbled up the south and east. Ukraine is a large country, its near impossible to maintain supply lines up to Kyiv, what Russia can do is capture and keep all the south and east Russian speaking areas and that is what they are doing. They are still expanding near Kherson with a goal to move towards Odessa and threaten Mykolaiv. I also see that Russians are starting to pull back from the Kharkiv region (North east), which was meant to draw Ukrainian forces and keep them busy. Might even make a land bridge to Moldova (Russian speaking area of Transnystria).

Russia has energy and food security. I dont see Putin backing down. If pushed, he will use more force, which means Ukraine will be destroyed into rubble for decades. The wise thing for Ukr was to have elections in the Russian speaking areas and let them align with Russia. I see no scenario where Russia gives back captured territories. May 9 is victory day in Russia.

706
This man is the saviour of some.


707
CAR (Central African Republic) adopts BTC as currency. El Salv was first. Slowly then suddenly...

708
We need the $ to pull back and up goes BTC. These days BTC also correlates to SP500.

709
ETH 2.0 is postponed as expected. Fall 2022 is the next date. To know when it will really go live, study Rube Goldberg contraptions.

710
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: April 11, 2022, 04:20:19 PM »
We have to give him some time. I dont have high hopes.

711
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: April 11, 2022, 05:49:23 AM »
Future PM of Pak. Pakis need to be emotional.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1512889808670314496

Now the PM of Pak. Pakis are too predictable.

712
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 10, 2022, 04:51:40 PM »
May 9 is Russia's Victory Day parade...they need to show a clear victory.

714
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: April 09, 2022, 01:32:50 PM »
Future PM of Pak. Pakis need to be emotional.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1512889808670314496

716
Ground breaking news from the Miami BTC conference.

1. Independent Portuguese island, Madeira has allowed use of BTC.
2. Prospera, Honduran city is doing same.
3. Mexico is considering BTC as legal tender., meetings planned with Mexican president.
4. Lugano, SWISS city already accepts BTC for everything. El Salvador uses BTC as legal tender (old news).
--------------------------------------------------

Biggest News:
 Jack Mallers CEO of Strike, about whom I have talked before, has set up Lightning Payments with the 3 major payment venders. This means that you can pay with BTC at almost every shop, from Walmart to Lowes. There will be no 3-4 % commissions that the credit cards charge, transactions will be final. Payment can be in fiat currency or BTC, but over the 2nd layer BTC blockchain. I think we are moving to 1 Billion users pretty quick.

717
By linking the Ruble to gold, if Ruble goes down (strengthens), gold must go up and vice versa. This would bankrupt a lot of paper gold traders who artificially keep the gold price down.


719
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: April 03, 2022, 05:54:59 AM »
Imran Khan and Bajwa having a power struggle....something must give.
The time has come for Imran Khan to go....

Its April...Inshallah, tomorrow.

So the signs have been there for long. In the banana republic that is Pak, Imran Khan (IK) has lost the majority and yesterday a no-confidence motion was not allowed to be presented by the speaker. So the govt has now been dissolved and new elections will be needed. No PM in Pak has completed a full 5 year term and IK is no exception. Military-Imran relations have not been good. In recent times, IK made a Russia trip to butter up Putin, whereas the Military has decided that China no longer serves their interests and the US is being buttered up. The Chinese Belt and Road initiative (CPEC) has collapsed due to all the corruption, and Pak needs to pay the Chinese a huge debt.
Pak is also taking advantage of India's neutral position in the Ukraine conflict, which irks the USA. Last week Daleep Singh, deputy US NSA came to India and basically threatened India, PM Modi did not meet him. Being of Indian origin, he missed a huge opportunity to connect with Modi, instead he behaved just as India fears, with threats. Several other state representatives from European countries also made a bee-line to New Delhi re: Ukraine, and Modi did not meet anyone, incl. the Chinese Foreign Minister. But when Russian FM, Lavrov came calling the body language was very friendly and Modi met Lavrov.

New PM will likely be Shahbaz Sharif, brother of Nawab Sharif ex PM, who is exiled in the UK.

721
"But given the paramount scarcity of BTC, why has its price been trading in a range between $30,000 and $60,000 over the past year?

The Bitcoin price in U.S. dollars can be thought of as a lagging indicator of humanity’s understanding of the technology and its innovative value proposition. Currently, only a small percentage of the world’s population truly grasp the unique concepts of programmatically decentralized and scarce money, so while the Bitcoin price might trend to infinity over the long term, that won’t likely become a reality until most of the global population – or most of the world’s capital – starts understanding that. When they do, a sharp supply shock might ensue as an unlimited amount of money flows into a limited amount of bitcoin."

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/19-millionth-bitcoin-has-been-mined-why-it-matters

722
Pl. be careful out there...Received this email. Never click on emails, go to a pre-bookmarked website.

Dear xxx,

 

We regret to inform you that Trezor has experienced a security incident involving data belonging to 106,856 of our customers, and that the wallet associated with your e-mail address (xxxxx) is within those affected by the breach.

 

Namely, on Saturday, April 2nd, 2022, our security team discovered that one of the Trezor Suite administrative servers had been accessed by an unauthorized malicious actor.

 

At this moment, it's technically impossible to accurately assess the scope of the data breach. Due to these circumstances, if you've recently accessed your wallet using Trezor Suite, we must assume that your cryptocurrency assets are at risk of being stolen....

723
I dont have a good understanding of how Russia has linked the Ruble to Gold..what is clear is that following the move, the $ to Ruble rate is back to pre-invasion levels. From what I am reading, this has the potential to roil gold markets.

724
History never repeats...but rhymes. Might explain a few things.


725
The Lightning network has more capacity than anything else on the planet, to handle money transfers, faster and with finality. VISA/Mastercard are toast, unless they accept Lightning network.
Hopefully, over the next 3-4 days, we will hear about Apple's foray into this. They do have 2 billion customers and that might give BTC a bit of a push.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1456088664132440069

726
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: April 02, 2022, 06:21:15 AM »
The time has come for Imran Khan to go....

Its April...Inshallah, tomorrow.

727
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 02, 2022, 05:46:37 AM »
Not sure, who's winning. Looks like Russia might have an edge.


730
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: March 30, 2022, 03:47:37 PM »
Putin is ex KGB, I would not underestimate him. Remember he is competing with Biden!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/opinion/ukraine-war-putin.html?smid=tw-share

731
Looks like Apple will allow instantaneous payment over the Bitcoin network using the Strike app. I am speculating this might be announced at the Miami BTC conference ?. That would be big, as it opens up the BTC network to the world. A big announcement is usually made at the conference...lets see what that turns out. A week to go...

732
Worth a read from ZH. Looks like the petro dollar will go away in due time..give it 10 years. The world has seen that the dollar can be sanctioned, Putin has said so in speech himself. Freedom has been tasted. Watch the Ruble, its now almost back to pre-sanction levels. I listen to Bloomberg and they are not talking about it!, whereas they were all over it, when the ruble was falling.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/gotgoldorrubles-did-russia-just-break-back-west

734
ETH 2.0 coming soon :-D :-D


735
Russian energy minister saying oil can be priced in gold or BTC. The beginning of the end....

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russia-open-selling-natural-gas-bitcoin-gold

737
Hows everybody feeling...if you held BTC thro 32K :-)

739
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: March 23, 2022, 06:50:28 PM »

740
Nik Bhatia writing on BTC...

"In bitcoin’s first year, barely anybody knew what it was. But by age 4, bitcoin had a massive underground popularity, hilariously and perfectly captured by the Reddit wizard drawing and moniker “magic internet money.” And that is exactly what it was. Bitcoin was internet money, and it was magical because it worked without any central issuer or company—something that had never existed before. It survived off an elegant set of rules and SHA256 encryption. It reached a market cap of $10 billion by 2013, purely by being magic internet money.

Bitcoin’s second price regime came after bitcoin didn’t die by 2015 following a massive 80% crash. It started receiving mainline attention, namely from CME and Fidelity, both which bet millions on R&D, convinced that bitcoin was indeed digital gold. This collective realization from the sophisticated investment universe can be thought of as the “5% probability that bitcoin will one day replace gold” era, allowing bitcoin to reach a market cap of over $300 billion.

The most recent price regime was the “post-pandemic, work-from-home, global digital economy, universal basic income” phase, in which bitcoin is settling in around the $1 trillion market cap. While the price swings have been large, bitcoin has consolidated around this impressive valuation for well over a year. The valuation is an acceptance that bitcoin is a mainstay in our society and will always have demand. During this phase, the “bitcoin is either going to $1 million or to $0” crowd ditched the mantra in realization it was likely to be the former.

I believe we are entering bitcoin’s next price regime, one that can be labeled “the risk models are broken” phase, in which bitcoin takes on an immediate strategic importance for institutions of all types around the world. This is the phase when countries, companies, and organizations political or geopolitical realize that a zero-bitcoin position is a strategic blind spot, one that must be covered with a purchase, or at the very minimum an investment in bitcoin education and infrastructure. Let’s look at where the price could go."

741
Greg Foss has been doing some serious writing on Bonds. TL;DR stay out of Bonds.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-insurance-for-bond-risks-contagion


742
The wise people use ETH to trade and make profits to buy BTC on pull backs, since in a bull market ETH usually appreciates more than BTC. In the coming bull market, ETH will likely gain more than BTC, that would be the time to sell. Several years ago, when ETH was < 100 $, I sold all. I personally dont believe in ETH, though there is a whole army of ETH believers out there.

BTC is a long term hold, not to be traded, like Gold, where one bets that inflation and money printing is a constant going forward.

743
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: March 20, 2022, 06:15:34 AM »
The time has come for Imran Khan to go....

745
ETH is a Rube Goldberg contraption. Hopefully, it will be delayed again. For HIVE they will need to move off ETH to something else. My guess is the BTC miners from Intel. There could be some volatility, if ETH succeeds, or more likely HIVE will not appreciate as much in a BTC rally. Proof of Stake consumes less energy and so the green lobby loves it. However, it is more centralized and Vitalik can be pulled before Congress., so ETH will never be a store of money, but may form the base layer for smart contracts and other applications.


747
Willy Woo
Top level summary for 18th Mar 2022 (current price $40.9k):

Structural summary: Demand continues to come in from futures markets backing up what we have been seeing on-chain. Fundamental signals now point to BTC being in an accumulation zone which typifies the end of bear markets.

Price action expectation: The countdown for a bullish break out of the bear market is now in effect, my best guess from price stability data is we are within a 1-2 weeks of this happening, but it could even be sooner.

Price action conviction: high

ETH Notes: ETH on-chain demand is at all-time-highs and the technical picture looks strong against BTC. I expect it to outperform BTC in coming weeks.

749
Willy's latest
Top level summary for 14th Mar 2022 (current price $38.9k):

Structural summary: Demand has returned on-chain but this has not yet been reflected on futures markets. Some metrics are inconclusive and some are conflicting. This tends to happen during structural changes in the market (for example going from macro bearish to bullish). Volatility remains quite choppy this suggests a large price breakout is NOT imminent yet. There is some evidence that a capitulation event has not yet taken place; normally we look for these events to signal a bottom.

Price action expectation: Sideways and reducing volatility over coming weeks before volatility and demand re-engages into the market. This may take a month or two from here (based on the timing signatures of prior bear markets).

Personal opinion: I think the market has started reversing, this will take some time to complete, and often it takes a sudden capitulation event to reactivate buying. It’s inconclusive whether that this has happened yet, I feel like we’re in a region similar to the 2018 bear market where price consolidated at $6k before a final capitulation before real demand came in. However in the present situation, if such a capitulation happens, I don’t think a downside move would be as dramatic, $30k-35k presents solid support.

750
The casacius coin looks genuine, the unfunded/funded link is scammy.

Willy Woo update:
Top level summary for 11th Mar 2022 (current price $39.1k):

Structural summary: Institutions and large holders continue to sell down.

Price action expectation: Bearish until we see signs of demand coming back into the market.

Personal opinion: There’s no question we are in a bear market due to the duration of the sell-off. There’s never been a bottom of a bear market in BTC without a capitulation event, so I think there is a high probability that this region breaks down and we test lower lows before accumulation takes place to setup for the next bull cycle.

Willy is stopping his newsletter service, he says its getting difficult to properly do the on-chain analysis.

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