Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Heh heh 

Could Mexico’s Election Spring a Surprise?
AMLO’s ruling party is trying to demoralize supporters of the opposition candidate and convince them to stay home.
Mary Anastasia O’Grady
May 26, 2024 2:36 pm ET


The “Pink Tide” demonstrations that swept Mexico on May 19 weren’t a popular cry for socialism, as the name might imply. Quite the opposite. The hundreds of thousands who turned out in urban plazas across the nation were part of a nonpartisan movement fighting to preserve the independence of the National Electoral Institute. The INE, as it is known, referees political campaigns and elections. The Mexico City government estimated the crowd in the capital’s main square at 95,000.

The citizen drive to support INE autonomy is pushback against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been trying to bring the electoral body under control of the executive and stifle its impartiality. The INE’s signature shade is pink. So movement organizers appropriated the color as a marketing tool. Of note is how those marches also turned into rallies for opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Gálvez, who will square off against Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of Mr. López Obrador’s Morena party, on June 2.

Ms. Sheinbaum was handpicked by the president, who is known as AMLO, and is a symbol of continuity with his agenda. Her threats to use executive power to crush pluralism and grab control of the Supreme Court frighten Mexican democrats. If she succeeds, the country could revert to a one-party state, as it was during the 71-year rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

Ms. Gálvez is the undisputed underdog in this race. Since before the campaign officially began, Mr. López Obrador has been running up the fiscal deficit, using government programs to throw money at voters and the economy. He also has used his bully pulpit to campaign for Ms. Sheinbaum, in violation of electoral law.

To win, Ms. Gálvez needs voter turnout in the mid-60% range, which is why the government wants to paint a picture that the race is over and going to the polls is a waste of time for her supporters. Some polling companies, allegedly financed by Morena or its supporters, happily assist by producing household surveys that show the challenger 20 points behind with no chance.

Skepticism is in order. Even if pollsters don’t have bias, it’s important to keep in mind that while household surveys are traditionally a good measurement, today they are notoriously unreliable because the middle class generally refuses to participate.

Meantime, daily polls released by the polling company Massive Caller last week showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with around 12% undecided. Massive Caller uses a technique of random dialing that has been much more accurate than traditional polling methods in recent state elections. The polling company Mexico Elige, which uses social media, also has the race within the margin of error.

Debates over polling methodology remain unsettled. But another way to sniff out voter intention is to look at top priorities. In a national survey published by Mexico Elige earlier this month, nearly 27% of respondents said the No. 1 problem facing the country is public safety. The second most popular response to the question was corruption, and the third was violence. In fourth place was narcotics trafficking. Together these four issues, all dependent on the rule of law, made up 72% of responses. This suggests wide dissatisfaction with how the government has handled one of its most important roles and an appetite for change.

A lack of trust on the part of voters that pollsters will keep their responses confidential may also distort polling results. Mr. López Obrador remains personally popular. Going against him, or his intended successor, is politically incorrect in some quarters. Mexicans who receive subsidies from the government are likely to be more fearful than others that by expressing an intention to vote for Ms. Sheinbaum’s rival, they could get cross-ways with the local Morena chieftain and lose their benefits. A significant shy vote that turns out on election day could be part of a Gálvez surprise.

In 2018, when Mr. López Obrador won with 53% of the vote, low turnout played a big role in his victory. He was helped by the split in the opposition vote between center-right candidate Ricardo Anaya from the National Action Party and the PRI candidate, Jose Antonio Meade. But when the incumbent PRI government threw mud at Mr. Anaya late in the race, alleging that he was corrupt, voters became discouraged. In many places in northern Mexico, which would have benefited from Mr. Anaya’s agenda of free trade and the rule of law, turnout hovered in the low 50% range. A rerun of voter malaise, this time because Ms. Gálvez is given up as a lost cause, would help Ms. Sheinbaum.

That’s what happened in the race for governor in the very important state of Mexico last year. Poll aggregators showed a 15-percentage-point lead for the Morena candidate, suggesting a blowout. Yet Morena won by only 8, sparking speculation that the overly grim forecast had pushed down participation (49%) and created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If that psychology prevails in the presidential race, and voter turnout is low, it will be good for Ms. Sheinbaum and Morena. But not so good for Mexico.

"Two lawyers on the jury.  Will they or someone else have sway on the rest?"

In an honest justice system one would think they would exonerate DJT.
The fact they are lawyers (most are crats) AND NY lawyers (most NY residents are crats)
makes me think they will vote against Trump.

Megan Kelly's opinion , FWIW is that the fix is surely in and she predicts the jury will GET Trump.
I don't know.

We only need one juror to vote for DJT
Can anyone imagine the pressure on that one juror.

Closing arguments today and maybe into tomorrow. Instructions to the jury, and then jury deliberation.  What will happen next?

Jury was not sequestered during the trial. Jury was not allowed to hear in court a legal expert tell how ridiculous this theory is. Did they find that viewpoint on their own elsewhere, when they weren't supposed to be looking?  Two lawyers on the jury.  Will they or someone else have sway on the rest?  In which direction? Will TDS prevail or will this come down to very specific legal requirements of the alleged series of crimes, knowledge and intent?  Will we the country get to hear the defense closing argument? Presumably yes on that, through the lawyers, won't everyone be free to talk once the verdict is in?

What will the verdict be? What will happen next if it is a hung jury?  What happens next if found guilty?  Incarceration while awaiting appeal??  They want the handcuff photo, but what point is overreach at this point?  Seems impossible he will be found not guilty, but that would be monumental in the fight against deep state and lawfare persecution.

Apparently there is a fast path to appeal.  This could go all the way to the US Supreme Court - before the election. What do they think of all this? Defective instructions to jurors and defective rulings all the way through is grounds for that. It takes just a certain number to want to hear the case.

But being overruled by a so-called Trump Supreme Court is not full political vindication of a jury verdict, certainly not to Democrats.  Just as a Manhattan jury verdict is not conclusive proof of a crime to Republicans.

What a strange political year. Speaking of politics, how long does the judge have to wait to make this year's contribution to Biden and the Democrat Party?
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Did the jury read this?  Did ONE of them read this or anything not in line with the prosecution and judge? 
https://nypost.com/2024/05/27/opinion/heres-why-the-case-against-trump-should-end-in-not-guilty/