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62
Politics & Religion / WSJ: India isn't the new China yet
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2024, 04:03:08 PM »


India’s Economy Isn’t the New China (Yet)
Its ascent is evident, but its per capita GDP is only a little more than half of Indonesia’s.
Sadanand Dhume
May 8, 2024 12:32 pm ET



Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers remarks in New Delhi, April 24. PHOTO: PIB /PRESS INFORMATION/ZUMA PRESS
Is India on the cusp of a long-awaited economic takeoff? America’s corporate titans appear to think so. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for having “done an unbelievable job.” Tim Cook, on whose watch Apple began making iPhones in India, called the country “an incredibly exciting market.” Warren Buffett said India holds “unexplored” opportunities for Berkshire Hathaway. Elon Musk said he looks forward to visiting India later this year.

How justified is the hype? First, the glass-half-full story: The International Monetary Fund estimates that India’s economy grew a robust 7.8% in the fiscal year that ended March 31. When Mr. Modi first took office in 2014, India was the world’s 10th-largest economy by gross domestic product at market exchange rates. It’s now the fifth-largest economy, behind only the U.S., China, Germany and Japan. The IMF estimates that by 2027 India will become the world’s third-largest economy, after the U.S. and China.

India has also dramatically reduced poverty over the past two decades. At a conference on the Indian economy at George Washington University last month, Oxford economist Sabina Alkire estimated that 415 million people in India exited poverty between 2005 and 2021. In 2015-16, 27.7% of Indians were poor, according to the United Nations Development Program’s Multidimensional Poverty Index, which measures health, education and living standards. By 2019-21 this had fallen to 16.4% of the population.

The World Bank takes an even more optimistic view of poverty reduction, estimating that in 2021, despite the pandemic, only 12.9% of India’s population was living on $2.15 or less a day, the global benchmark for extreme poverty. Indian economists Surjit Bhalla and Karan Bhasin wrote this year that “India has eliminated extreme poverty.” Regardless of whom you believe, there’s no doubt that the extreme deprivation with which India was once synonymous has diminished greatly and is on track to disappear entirely.


There are other reasons for optimism. The Modi government has presided over a large infrastructure buildout. Economists Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman estimate that India has built 34,000 miles of national highway since 2014, and that India’s infrastructure—including ports and airports—“has been transformed.” A combination of widespread internet access, the proliferation of cellphones, and a massive rollout of bank accounts has also improved the government’s ability to deliver welfare payments to the needy.

India’s service exports have continued to boom. Messrs. Subramanian and Felman estimate that India’s share of global highly skilled services nearly doubled, from around 3% in 2005 to 5.8% in 2022. JPMorgan Chase now employs about 60,000 people in India. Toss in a youthful workforce—the median Indian is 28—and a surge in companies seeking alternative investment destinations to China, and the case for India’s impending takeoff is complete. In a speech at George Washington University, India’s chief economic adviser, V. Anantha Nageswaran, described achieving a near-term 10% annual growth rate in dollar terms as “not particularly daunting.”

Despite this progress, India still faces many challenges. Here’s the glass-half-empty version of the story: India’s economic performance looks much less impressive when contrasted with that of other countries. India’s per capita GDP ($2,730) is about 1/30th of America’s ($85,370) and about one-fifth of China’s ($13,140). Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, estimates that at current growth rates it will take 75 years before per capita GDP in India reaches a quarter of the U.S. figure.

And there’s no guarantee this will happen. According to World Bank research, most poor countries hit a wall at 10% of U.S. per capita GDP. At current growth rates, it could take decades for India simply to catch up with Indonesia, which has a per capita GDP of $5,270.

China benefited during a period of Western openness to trade. The global environment is much less benign now, and India has made it harder for its companies to become part of global supply chains by choosing to remain outside large trade blocs such as the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Nimbler Asian rivals such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore are part of both. Mr. Modi has failed to solve India’s central economic challenge: moving tens of millions of subsistence farmers to more productive factory jobs.

Mr. Modi says he wants India to be a developed economy by 2047, when the country will celebrate 100 years of independence. Is it possible? The jury remains out on that question.

63
Science, Culture, & Humanities / The Ratchet Effect & the TSA
« Last post by Body-by-Guinness on May 09, 2024, 03:55:01 PM »
Just another bloated agency unable to work effectively due to political sensitivities and bureaucratic buffoonery.

TSA Failure

The Beacon / by Randall G. Holcombe / May 2, 2024 at 9:35 PM

I’ll admit up front that one reason I’m writing this is that I am a disgruntled TSA customer. My tax dollars pay for the “service” I get from the TSA, and I’m not happy with the service. I don’t want to have to take off my shoes as a prerequisite for boarding an airliner. Travelers from European airports don’t have to and don’t seem more at risk because of it. I’ve been harassed by TSA employees that I’m sure fit the definition of sexual assault. Also, I’ve missed more than one flight because the TSA lines were backed up. (OK, I’ve missed a total of two, but that’s still too many.) If you are happy with the service you get from TSA, feel free to add a comment.

The TSA was established to prevent terrorists from boarding commercial aircraft preventing a repeat of September 11, 2001. Public policy is always aimed at preventing past crises rather than future threats. It’s an example of the ratchet effect popularized by Robert Higgs. When a crisis occurs, the government ratchets up in response, and once the crisis has passed, it doesn’t ratchet back down to its former level.

A repeat of September 11 is very unlikely because once that threat is revealed, passengers are motivated to take action to stop it rather than sit passively as the government previously told them to do. That’s why the fourth hijacked airliner on September 11 didn’t make it to the terrorists’ destination. People learn fast when their lives are at stake.

TSA has been around now for two decades, and it has yet to uncover any terrorists trying to board aircraft. (Yes, I’ve heard the argument that they are not trying because TSA is there to deter them.)

What prompted me to write today is a series of recent articles reporting on Americans who have been detained in Turks and Caicos for trying to board aircraft while carrying ammunition. Some of those stories are here, here, and here.

I’ll set aside whether those who have been detained are being threatened with too severe a punishment for what they claim are innocent mistakes to focus on the fact (noted in the news coverage) that those people carried that same ammunition through the US TSA checkpoints to board their flights to Turks and Caicos.

You’ve heard stories about TSA failures to detect illegal materials when the system has been tested. Why can screening at Turks and Caicos detect illegal material that screening in the US cannot?

One problem is TSA’s “one size fits all” screening. (The existence of Pre-Check makes it two sizes fit all.) We’re using way too many resources to screen people who are very unlikely to be terrorists, which dilutes the resources we use to screen those who are more likely threats.

Had TSA been doing its job, those people caught with ammunition at Turks and Caicos would not have been able to get that ammunition out of the US. I think the TSA excessively screens most people, but that’s its mandate, and in this case, it failed, not just once but multiple times.

The post TSA Failure appeared first on The Beacon.

https://blog.independent.org/2024/05/02/tsa-failure/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tsa-failure
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Politics & Religion / WSJ: Custodian Union looking to sue Columbia?
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2024, 03:52:53 PM »
The Columbia Protest Could Go to Court
The custodians mobbed at Hamilton Hall might get a union lawsuit.
By The Editorial Board
May 9, 2024 5:46 pm ET

Here’s another warning about the risks for colleges that indulge a campus protest mob: The union for about 725 staff at Columbia University now says it’s “exploring legal action” against the school for its failure to protect workers, “including two Custodians held against their will, when protesters stormed and occupied Hamilton Hall.”

TWU International President John Samuelsen is unsparing in a letter to Columbia President Minouche Shafik. “There is no doubt that the university was aware that outside agitators were operating on campus and posed an increased risk to university employees, yet the university continued to assign their work routines as if it was ‘business as usual,’” he writes. “Your negligence as an employer is largely responsible for the dangerous situation and debacle which unfolded.”

As protesters took over Hamilton Hall in the wee hours of April 30 and began setting up barricades, the two custodians cleaning the building asked to be let out. In Mr. Samuelsen’s telling, the workers were rebuffed by a “smarmy, sanctimonious, elitist” occupier who said that “there was no chance of leaving because ‘this moment is bigger than you.’” The custodians “had to courageously fight their way towards one of the exits.”

Mr. Samuelsen’s letter adds that a female security officer “remains shaken by her encounter with the occupying protesters (aka privileged kids) who verbally attacked her in a very aggressive and extremely offensive manner.”

The union wants a meeting with Ms. Shafik, as well as access to the security footage from Hamilton Hall and “the names of the occupiers arrested,” since it’s also weighing legal action against them.

College presidents don’t want to inflame the anti-Israel protesters, yet coddling agitators who break the rules carries its own perils. TWU might or might not have a legally meritorious lawsuit, but what if the scuffle in Hamilton Hall had ended with a custodian tumbling down a flight of stairs and cracking his head? Although the workers at Columbia weren’t seriously injured, it isn’t hard to imagine how someone could have been.

Perhaps there’s also some political danger here for Democrats and President Biden. TWU International has endorsed Mr. Biden, but Mr. Samuelsen’s members don’t have to follow his lead on Election Day.

Young voters and union workers are both longtime Democratic constituencies. But the more the left panders to mobs at Ivy League schools where tuition runs well into five figures, the more out of touch it looks to the working man.
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Politics & Religion / WSJ: Magoo's arms embargo and its consequences
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2024, 03:47:22 PM »
Striking Back at Biden’s Arms Embargo Against Israel
A draft Senate resolution denounces the weapons betrayal. How will Democrats vote?
By The Editorial Board
Updated May 9, 2024 6:14 pm ET


Democrats hammered Republicans for months to pass U.S. military aid for America’s friends abroad. Now only weeks after the bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, President Biden is holding up the weapons Israel needs to prevail in a war for survival. So credit to the Republicans lining up against Mr. Biden’s weapons embargo.


South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham on Thursday rolled out a measure condemning the Administration’s decision to halt weapons deliveries to Israel. All Senate Republicans joined the measure except for Rand Paul of Kentucky.

“I want the Republican Party in the Senate—and I think the House will follow—to firmly state that we believe Israel is a rule of law nation,” Sen. Graham told us. “That they have an ethical, well-regulated military,” that “the weapons that we’re providing to them are necessary for their continued survival, that you have Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran, all dedicated to the destruction of Israel, not the uplifting of the Palestinian people.”

The resolution rehearses the Biden Administration’s many promises of ironclad support to Israel. Yet among other weapons, the measure notes that “since January 2024 the Biden Administration has effectively paused the sale of up to 6,500 Joint Direct Attack Munitions.” These kits offer GPS directions to bombs so they are accurate within approximately 10 feet. They are exactly the precision weapons that reduce civilian casualties in urban warfare. Mr. Biden’s supposed moral stance will make the Israeli operation in Rafah more bloody and costly.

Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will probably try to deny the measure a floor vote. But the House could force Mr. Biden to at least pay some political price for his policy choices. Sen. Graham says he and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine are also looking at ways to push back through the appropriations process.

Mr. Biden’s threat to pull the plug on the main U.S. ally in the Middle East is a watershed moment that will radiate across the world. Other allies will wonder what they’re risking if they cast their lot with the U.S.

“Nations on the fence,” as Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said on the floor Thursday, “will look elsewhere for their own security. And our enemies will be emboldened.” An apt summary of Mr. Biden’s foreign policy.
66
No need for a new thread:  "Political Economics" will do nicely.  :-)
67
Politics & Religion / Re: Argentina Milei
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2024, 03:27:55 PM »
Scott Grannis tells me he was in Argentina for three weeks last month and is helping organize a CATO shindig there to celebrate Milei.
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2nd post. Jeepers, if you spend more than you earn by a significant margin, at some point your interest payment subsumes all. Who knew, besides everyone with a modicum of fiscal integrity.

https://blog.independent.org/2024/04/16/interest-on-national-debt/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=interest-on-national-debt
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Politics & Religion / Biden Takes a Hit on Unemployment
« Last post by Body-by-Guinness on May 09, 2024, 02:49:15 PM »
What’s that you say? Bidenomics doesn’t work and you have the stats to prove it?

https://www.westernjournal.com/weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-shoot-worrisome-level/

Perhaps it’s time for an employment thread?
70
Politics & Religion / Michael Yon: You will see , , ,
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2024, 02:46:26 PM »

Europe, “Israel,” Food, Panama, Jabs, More
You Will See
MICHAEL YON
MAY 9

 




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Taipei, Taiwan — area of coming war

Mind-dump, Sans Edit

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Incredible…out of ALL the companies in the world to visit, Masako Ganaha and I travelled to BASF in Ludwigshafen, Germany. Twice we travelled to BASF before Nordstream attack. We asked during our second trip what happens to BASF if Nordstream flow stops. And then BOOM…Nordstream. That was literally like Predicting 9/11 before the attack. Precision prediction far in advance. We knew BASF was on the menu. Likewise with Groningen Gas field in Netherlands. I was there at Groningen before it was shut down warning it would be shut.

I warned about the tuberculosis and screwworms and numerous other key items far in advance. And that Darien Gap would become major invasion route. Darien is now wide open. Nicaragua is also growing as invasion hub. These are accurate, intercontinental sniper shot on a moving target from a moving platform.

“Israel” will be lucky to survive. You will see.

Texas will be lucky to survive. You will see.

Many of these plays are amazingly obvious far in advance. You just have to study and travel to key places with key players seven days per week for years on end.

And there are little things…such as spotting the road being built through Darien Gap. Now it’s big news. I found the new bridge by following new mud tracks at end of PanAm highway in Darien. When I saw the tracks, I followed…and found the new bridge being secretly built. And now everyone knows. You cannot learn these things by reading other people’s reports who are reading other people’s reports. We will go into massive famines. Long flash to bang. They are coming.

The manufactured famines will create massive HOP — Human Osmotic Pressure — pushing hundreds of millions of people into Europe, America, Japan, Australia, and more. Many invaders will use the new road I discovered on a trip alone into Darien. The road is being built through Darien Gap.

@annvandersteel and @ganaha_masako and I took reporters down there from @EpochTimes and also @BretWeinstein and @chrismartenson and @LauraLoomer and @realmuckraker and @rangerholton and @Oscarelblue and more.

And now millions of people realize the bridge is being built and Darien will become massive invasion route to USA — even as Gaza is emptied. Which we predicted immediately after the obvious Gleiwitz attack on 07 October in “Israel.” A person has to be a serious vaxx-denier not to see the 07 October attack was coordinated using Hamas terrorists as useful idiots. Israeli forces and intelligence — allegedly the “best in the world” — did not seriously counterattack for about 8 hours despite startup time for a Blackhawk helicopter is only about 4 minutes. Cold bird to wheels up should be no more than 6 minutes even for a slow crew. They fly about 180 miles per hour. Israel is small. The should have been slinging bullets and smashing Hamas within 20-25 mins. Max. People with significant special operations experience see through this bullshit. Ask a Green Beret or Delta Force operator, or someone who flies special operations birds. They know. They will not bullshit you.

Ann; .Vandersteel and I were literally talking about this in the jungle in Darien Gap on about 08 October. That Gaza would be cleared out and come to the West.

Masako Ganaha saw it clearly. The path through Darien Gap, and other routes, are being fortified and built-up.

Genocides unfold.

And the remainder are barcoded, fungible, monkey-man-slaves for globalists.

Millions of Americans still believe in a “Tooth Fairy”. “If we can just get Tooth Fairy back into office, Tooth Fairy will fix everything!”

Tooth Fairy was not even strong enough to HOLD the ground he already was standing on. The price for stupidity and weakness is infinite. Bloodlines are being extinguished after entire families death-jabbed. You Are At War

H/t @HealthRanger

https://rt.com/russia/597186-russian-company-german-chemical-subsidiary/

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