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Messages - ya

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501
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: October 08, 2022, 01:42:29 PM »
Some people think Putin is the moderate, if he is taken out,  a hawk could replace him. I am puzzled why Russia is not doing much (looks like the Ukis are advancing everywhere). Something is afoot. A small tactical nuke always remains a possibility.

502
https://nypost.com/2022/10/07/us-buys-290m-in-anti-radiation-drugs-amid-nuke-fears/

it is NOT an "anti radiation" drug

I believes it is used to stimulate platelet production to reduce bleeding

not clear to me if it would even work after radiation exposure
Radiation kills the platelets..this will stimulate platelet production.

503
Politics & Religion / Fresh ideas from the Space Force
« on: October 05, 2022, 06:30:29 PM »
jason lowery is in the US space force, some fresh ideas if you have the time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikPnr23h7qg

504
Re: Nepal and Chinese attempts to woo them, India has a special relationship with Nepal. While the article talked about Lumbini the birthplace of Buddha being in Nepal, there is another relationship, God Ram (one of the main God's of Hinduism), his wife Sita was from Nepal. There are many other temples etc related to hinduism in nepal. Nepalese are allowed to work in India, without visas, India also takes the Gorkhas from Nepal into the Indian army. The top Indian army General also has a corresponding title in the Nepalese army and vice-versa. Its very difficult for the Chinese to break into this arrangement, though corrupt politicians ofcourse have to be discounted. The relationship is described as Roti-Beti, which is hard to translate, but essentially its a marriage where the bride is from nepal, who provides the food to the family (husband).

505
Lots of rumors about Credit Suisse going down...contagion ? Fed Emergency meeting tomorrow.

506
Politics & Religion / The War Has Just Begun
« on: October 02, 2022, 08:04:27 AM »
This is a very interesting read, what Russia may be planning.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-has-just-begun

508
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 28, 2022, 05:27:30 PM »

509
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 27, 2022, 12:51:08 PM »
I suspect the Ukrainians or the US did it. No one else would have the guts and motivation to do it.

510
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 27, 2022, 12:31:38 PM »
Annexation of 4 Russian speaking Uki states complete. Now, they will be fighting Russia. Assuming that the NS-1/2 pipelines were not blown up by Russia, stronger retaliation is coming.

511
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 27, 2022, 08:03:10 AM »
So with NS-1 and NS-2 blown up...qui bono ?. US ? Ukr ?responsible ? Germany definitely in recession. Putin loses a negotiation tool.

512
Politics & Religion / Re: Gen Keane
« on: September 25, 2022, 04:03:08 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-losing-war-ukraine-forcing-annexation-referendum-secure-political-victory-keane-says?fbclid=IwAR3VGK1D8NF4D8wcyDs7xOJXkYb0B8iuYmdnL1ZoCByml2t8Ns95GyB0B0s

What if Putin were to nuke Odessa as response to Ukes going to retake Donbas, which he is now about to assert IS part of Russia?

Odessa is mostly Russian speaking...he has designs on it, nuking it would not make sense. Perhaps some part of Ukr with few Russians, or some part of Ukr closer to Europe.

514
Latest rumor

515
So whats happening in China...lots of rumors

https://twitter.com/i/status/1573322602784980993

517
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: September 24, 2022, 06:18:53 AM »
The amount that can be transported over the seas is huge and at very low costs.

518
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 23, 2022, 05:08:46 AM »
Does the Kharkiv withdrawal make sense now...Ukrainians were jubilant, that Russia was losing...


519
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 22, 2022, 04:47:21 AM »
Putin will hold a referendum in Donbass etc, they will become Russian Territory. Any future fight by Ukr will therefore be against the Russian federation. That will allow Putin to use more force and perhaps even partially mobilize.

After the referendum, Russia annexes the Donbass + region and declares cease fire, just in time for winter. I dont see any EU support for waging war against Russia, for Russians they are now defending mother Russia, as opposed to being an attacking force in Ukraine. Checkmate.

520
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 20, 2022, 07:48:53 PM »
Putin will hold a referendum in Donbass etc, they will become Russian Territory. Any future fight by Ukr will therefore be against the Russian federation. That will allow Putin to use more force and perhaps even partially mobilize.

522
Politics & Religion / Re: California
« on: September 18, 2022, 05:07:43 PM »
Kalifornians in TX
https://youtu.be/HlDWzN6TW5Y

523
Politics & Religion / Re: ether shift proof of work to proof of stake
« on: September 17, 2022, 01:13:48 PM »
https://time.com/nextadvisor/investing/cryptocurrency/ethereum-merge-complete-what-investors-should-know/

seems to have been a sell on the news
but OTOH
everything is down

so timing bad
for the traders of which I am not
I do own ether

Ether is now a Proof of Stake coin...i.e. centralized coin. This means Vitalik Buterin can be called in for a congressional hearing...

524
Silver is now below $20 and Gold is now below $1700.  Both of them moving down during the rising inflation of the past year is not what I would expect to see.

Yes, and previously, Bitcoin has not held up as the new gold - hedge against inflation. 

Also I would add real estate is not poised to hold up against new inflation, because it is overpriced already and
the interest rate hikes (in reaction to high inflation) and resulting economic decline and real wage decreases are bound to bring it down.

We are screwed.

This gets solved only at the ballot box.  Vote out these people and these policies.  Or if a fair and free election cannot be held, then only a more aggressive approach that cannot be mentioned on open internet is left.

The current state of BTC suggests, its a hedge against  Fed QE, and not directly an inflation hedge. In the long run QE will continue and hence BTC will always go up. We have to wait for the USD to start coming down and QT to end.

526
BTC hash rate keeps going up, price has been down. At some point this will correct.


529
Note the rate of change (trajectory). At this rate and with the Ukr crisis, India will overtake Germany in a few years.


530
Well, it was a very mild rebuke, if at all. Below you can hear the actual video of Putin (in english) speaking to Modi, and Modi in hindi (no translation offered).
https://youtu.be/_aEzYTtPjKQ

531
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 16, 2022, 05:31:43 PM »
Luke Gromen tweeted this.  Something I was not aware off.
Putin's Paradox:

The higher the USD goes against every currency in the world (except the RUB), the greater the incentive every  nation in the world will have to buy oil from Russia in non-USD, just to survive (thereby de-dollarizing their oil imports.)

532
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 15, 2022, 05:09:47 AM »
"Putin is certainly aware that the internal front is under some pressure. He refuses even partial mobilization. A perfect indicator of what may happen in winter is the referenda in liberated territories. The limit date is November 4 – the Day of National Unity, a commemoration introduced in 2004 to replace the celebration of the October revolution (it already existed in imperial times).

With the accession of these territories to Russia, any Ukrainian counter-offensive would qualify as an act of war against regions incorporated into the Russian Federation. Everyone knows what that means."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-kharkov-game-changer


534
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 15, 2022, 04:57:13 AM »
Is Russia losing ?
Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/is-russia-losing/

The above scenario seems to be playing out ?. Power grid, dams, food supply.....

535
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 13, 2022, 05:52:28 PM »
Ummm , , , point taken I suppose, but if so, why are they buying from the Norks?  How is troop morale?  The Chechen general apparently is pist off too.

Apparently as Zeihan predicted, the Ukes have scored a shitload of Russki weaponry.

I'm guessing Uke morale is pretty strong right about now.
First, what's wrong with buying from the Norks, is Ukr not getting weapons from multiple EU countries and the USA. Second, I have a hard time believing the mainstream media, their track record is not stellar, for a long time they kept saying that Russia was losing, but it turned out that Russia ended up taking 20 % of Ukr. I would be concerned if Putin is deposed, but apart from that this withdrawal from Kharkiv was a strategic withdrawal, as opposed to a defeat in war. If Putin gives up Donbass/Kherson, that would be a forced withdrawal. Re:Kharkiv, I have been monitoring that area for a while, the Russians initially occupied the border areas, they lost/withdrew, then came back and occupied the whole area and have now withdrawn again. Its possible its a hard area to defend.

536
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 13, 2022, 04:53:33 AM »
YA:

What did you make of the Zeihan clip above?

===================================



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-front-line-in-kharkiv-collapses-in-major-victory-for-ukraine/ar-AA11FTVd?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=03b824e7e3cc424892959e9bd56fc246
Occam's razor says that Russian forces are spread thin and they have regrouped to where they have more ethnic Russians in the population. It is difficult to defend a frontline stretching thousands of miles from Kharkiv to Kherson, which are at the extreme ends of the front line. Russia just does not have a large enough army.  My guess is they will focus on acquiring depth as opposed to breadth. It would be the wrong conclusion that Russia is falling apart, or that they cannot manufacture artillery shells and rockets in quantity. Russian weapons are much cheaper than western ones, and while these weapons may not have all the bells and whistles that American weapons have, they kill effectively, especially when used in large quantities.

537
Germany next...India moving upwards. With the current situation, it could happen quickly.


538
But  that could lead to a potential blockade of any China traffic thro the Malacca Straights. If I was She Gin Ping, to make it worth the risk, I would invade Taiwan and bear the consequences. In a few years the blockade will be lifted and we get back to business. China is too big to sanction forever. That will be his calculation, same as Putin's wrt Ukraine. The future markets are in Asia and Africa. Dont think the Dragon-Bear thinks they have a long term future with the west.

539
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 11, 2022, 06:46:17 PM »
Is Russia losing ?
Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/is-russia-losing/

540
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: September 09, 2022, 07:21:16 PM »
Something odd going on in Ukr. They are capturing lots of territory near kharkiv, with minimal Russian pushback. Almost as if no one is defending those areas.

541
I am not an expert on Taiwan issues, but does anyone know what might be a good season for a Chinese assault on Taiwan. If India was to make a move on POK, Nov-May can be snow bound and not convenient from an India point of view. So perversely, from a Chinese POV, thats the best time for an assault.

542
Important news, India-China pull back from point of contact. This is huge news. After 2 years of a tough Indian stance, both sides have agreed to essentially go back to their original positions and dismantle new structures. The Chinese realized the futility of their stance, which I can say they very rarely do, unless forced. The interesting question is why now ?.
- Taiwan  in the works ?
- Just as the US tried to drive a wedge between Russia and China and draw Russia to the west, could the Chinese be interested to draw India into the Dragon-Bear relationship and drive a wedge with the USA ?.
- Modi is planning to meet Xi quite soon



543
Looks like BTC is doing BTC things (going up suddenly). BTC goes up, when the US $ goes down. At some point the USD will go down again after its current strengthening phase and that is when BTC will rise.

544
Yesterday WH released their crypto report. Many aspects of it are BTC friendly. People are realizing that it may be the greenest technology on earth, with the potential to save the climate (if you believe in that narrative). Once the environmental groups understand it. BTC will be heavily marketed. BTC is energy friendly for several reasons.

1. It can utilize flared CH4 (methane) and make money!, which is 80x worse than Co2. There are thousands of oil wells world wide flaring CH4.
2. It can use stranded energy, hydroenergy, geothermal energy, and is stabilizing the power grid in TX. At times of peak load, in TX they shut of the miners, and in low loads, they mine.
3. CH4 released from abandoned oil wells, as well as the thousands of land fills all release CH4. This can be monetized, while cleaning the environment.

https://twitter.com/Vespene_Energy/status/1567956516300537858/photo/1

In other parts of the report, they are more threatning (good luck with arresting the CEO of BTC)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcI9FAJXoAAJqpj?format=png&name=900x900

545
In the meantime the Biden admin is back to its old playbook of supporting Pak with arms. Trump stopped it in 2018, Biden restarted it, to a country which harbored Bin Laden. 9/11 is now a distant memory.
I suppose its payback for India buying oil from Russia, but this is the exact reason why the India-US relationship remains transactional. Everytime there is a step forward, sooner or later it slides back.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-approves-450-million-f-16-fleet-sustainment-programme-to-pakistan-101662610278368.html

546
A few interesting coincidences happening with the passing of Queen Eliz II, signifying the end of an era.

- India passes the UK as the 5th largest economy.
- India installs the statue of Bose a patriot, where the statue of King George V used to reside in New Delhi. @ an important site in the capital.
- Rajpath "Highway of kings" named after the british monarchs and which is the major road in New Delhi, was renamed with an Indian name.
- The Indian Navy flag has had the King George cross on it for the last 75 years, it was replaced with another national emblem.

547
Politics & Religion / Russia mulling pricing oil & gas in BTC
« on: September 05, 2022, 04:26:24 PM »
For long Russia threatened that Ukr joining NATO would be a red line...Kamala harris said Ukr should join Nato, next day Russia invaded. Then Russia said, oil pipelines would be shut down, after 6 months Nordstream 1 is shut down. Now Russia is threatning to use cryptocurrencies (BTC) for oil payments (see below), this too will happen at some point. Once they start pricing oil in BTC, that could be the end of the petrodollar. Oil is currently indirectly priced in gold as the rouble is linked to the price of gold. Similarly, any trade in Yuan is freely convertable to gold at the Shanghai exchange (from what I read).

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/russia-legalize-use-cryptocurrency-international-trade-report

549
I dont follow Indian stocks...but today India became the 5th largest economy in the world, displacing its colonial master UK. I would not invest abroad, due to the strength of the US $. One must wait, until the Fed pivots or cuts rates.

550
In the last few decades, the curves have become steeper, takes about 10 yrs for full saturation. BTC is ready for adoption.

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