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Messages - ya

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651
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 26, 2022, 05:32:29 PM »
Look like mainstream media has started to show that things may not be going all that well for Ukr. They have lost a lot of territory in the Donbas.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

652
There is only one king...The $hitcoins are puking. Happens every cycle. Many will go to zero and a new crop of coins will be peddled to noobs, and the cycle of life begins again. See my previous chart on altcoin longevity. LTC is the longest living altcoin, but its lost its place too.


653
Biden's QUAD meeting


654
Why one should not buy $hitcoins


656
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 22, 2022, 02:50:03 PM »
Ukraine could have held a referendum in Donbas (Minsk agreement) and agreed to Crimea as Russian territory. Its too late now. Russia is focussed on getting the whole of Donbas, once that is done, Odessa will be challenged and after that a land bridge to Transnystria. Over the longer term, Russia has more resources and potent weapons and will win.

The loss of the nazi Azov battalion was a big psychological victory for Russia and a loss for Ukr. After their surrender, Russia has been gaining territory and Zelensky is starting to talk peace.

657
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 21, 2022, 04:19:24 PM »
In the last 72 h, the battle has been moving Russia's way. From the Azov battalion surrender (2400 soldiers), to many areas in the Donbass region. Something has changed.

658
Sometimes we tend to think, oh if only I had known about BTC earlier. The reality is most that held BTC early on sold a 20-30 % rally. It is really hard to hold BTC during the bear markets, which until recently have been 85 % pull backs several times. Today is BTC Pizza day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-pizza-day-time-regret-and-fantasy

659
If the $ (DXY)pulls back, expect BTC to go up.

660
Speculation is that Chinese govt is mining the coins for their treasury as a store of value (like gold), while the population is not allowed to use BTC, for it competes with their CBDC. There is this intetresting report about how Jack Dorsey, ex CEO Twitter plans to bring BTC mining to the people.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/block-investor-day-2022-talks-bitcoin

661
This is how BTC behaves...when you least expect it. BTC has been ranging for a while at the 30 K level.


662
International game theory in action..El Salv Prez says 32 Central banks from developing countries and 44 country representatives attending. Sort of like, when one US state made marijuana legal, they all have to (otherwise lose tax revenue).

Probably nothing..

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1526029996787216387

663
Terra/Luna sold 80,000 BTC during last week to defend the peg. A lot of selling was absorbed.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/luna-foundation-sold-80000-bitcoin-amid-ust-crash

664
I'm on the edge of cashing out at substantial loss (fortunately I limited how much I put in)

GBTC
BTC
ETH

I kinda thought an important part of the premise was that crypto protected against inflation and political uncertainty , , ,

Hope you are still in....while nothing is guaranteed...the long term (4 year) trend is up.

665
Marty Armstrong has been saying this for a long time. Basically they want to increase debts so much, that everything crashes and burns, then there will be a debt amnesty and as the WEF says "You will own nothing and be happy".

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/new-interview-martin-armstrong-on-the-hrvoje-moric-show/

666
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 15, 2022, 07:50:07 AM »
Russia is using some hardcore bombs...might be illegal.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525850300187258883

667
Watch the long term arc of history. Drawdowns are no fun....but...


668
If anyone is invested in Celsius, time to get out...they had a large investment in Terra/Luna. The downstream effects of investors in LUNA may start to show up.

669
I have previously posted about the fantastic business that Jack Mallers of Strike is building. This is one company I would invest in, if it went public. One more anecdote as to why BTC will not go to zero, though it could go lower for a short while.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1525179602234134528

671
July 6, the SEC will let them know, if they can convert to ETF. If that happens the premium will increase and is off to the races. They plan to sue the SEC, if they object  because the SEC allows several futures ETF but not spot ETF. It's a matter of time....that they will convert to an ETF.

672
Yesterday BTC touched 25.5 K, and that was stressing to many including myself. A few random thoughts.
- While no one can predict the bottom, BTC is unlikely to go below 22K. Seehttps://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/if-the-price-changes-so-does-the?s=w
- I have over 4-5 years experience. Started by buying BTC and altcoins, over time I learnt that altcoins are all scams, did some trading and quickly focussed on BTC.
- I have never sold any BTC thro all the ups and downs, only added to my position.
-----------------------------------

I am convinced that BTC will NOT go to zero, there are too many large companies and countries invested in it. It has survived everything thrown against it for the last 10 years. I have spent a lot of time and effort learning about it to have this conviction, which is what allows me to hold on when the going gets tough. Remember, even the US govt has never said they are going to ban BTC, infact the govt holds BTC (confiscated). So far, any 4 year holding period has been very profitable, but it comes with volatility, which is upward. Everyone should look at a BTC log chart on a weekly and monthly time frame. If the main premise of the bet is right, these minor fluctuations will not matter in the next 5 years.

So Hodl on...and never invest so much that you get sleep less nights.

673
Always a hard question. All I can say is unlike stocks, BTC has had several 85 % declines, it's a feature not a bug.

674
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 12, 2022, 04:42:12 AM »
So Kherson is about 10,900 sq miles, Donetsk is 3400 sq miles, Luhansk 3200 sq miles, plus a huge ton of other territory...40, 000- sq miles. Good time for Russia to quit, while ahead. Water supply to Crimea has been protected. I am still not understanding how Russia has lost ?., is it western media not reporting the truth, or perhaps I am missing something. Their dreams of taking Odessa and land bridge to Transnystria might have to wait.

If Finland and Sweden apply to join Nato...plans could change.



675
- That is why it is said, Not your keys not your coins. Dont store coins on an exchange..they can be rehypothecated.
- While I DONT advise this, it may be a good time to buy LUNA in case it makes a comeback. This would be a high risk, almost certain way to lose money, but if someone is looking for a lottery ticket...
- Australia launches its BTC ETF...should improve BTC price.

677
"UST broke the peg and is at 0.79, so there is a possibility that it goes to 1$, an easy 20 % gain....or it goes kaput  :-D"
Luna...

678
Overall, BTC is volatile enough. No need to buy Altcoins, 99% of which will go to zero. If BTC is expensive, think in terms of Satoshis. 0.1 BTC is not daunting to buy.
Altcoins are a crap shoot, but cycle wise they go up, after BTC has peaked. At this time it is not clear if BTC has peaked or is consolidating. I think its consolidating in a wide range.

679
UST broke the peg and is at 0.79, so there is a possibility that it goes to 1$, an easy 20 % gain....or it goes kaput  :-D

680
With some luck the bottom is in, around 30 K for BTC.

681
ETH will remain #2 for the present. It may even pump more % than BTC. Previous years top coins like BCH, BSV, LTC are floundering.

682
What happens after bear markets is that BTC comes back, but many of the 8000 altcoins never come back. Every year the top 20 coins change, but BTC remains on top.

684
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 08, 2022, 09:40:49 AM »
Next week Finland and Sweden decide if they submit their application to join Nato. Interesting times. Finland lost a significant chunk of land (Karjala) the last time they went to war with Russia.

685
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 08, 2022, 08:57:16 AM »
At some point the world will realize the media is lying...Ukr could lose more territory. We will fight to the last Ukrainian.

688
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 07, 2022, 06:27:45 PM »
I have been monitoring Ukr/Russia war progress. The only place where Ukr is making progress is around Kharkiv in the North East. This could be real progress, or that Russia has decided taking on Kharkiv the second largest city may be difficult and they are pulling back to defensible positions (from where they still shell Kharkiv). The middle sector, Russia is making small advances. Kherson, near Mykolaiv/Odessa is at a standstill for now. I think they will activate that front, once Mariupol is settled, in the meantime they regroup and replenish supplies etc. My hunch is Russia will make atleast one attempt for Odessa, because that land locks Ukraine, all other major ports are in Russian hands.

Inspite of all the neg news on Russia (poor morale, logistics etc), on the ground situation is still in Russia's favor. My back of the envelope visual math suggests Russia now occupies about 28,000 sq miles, not counting Crimea. Crimea is itself around 10,000 sq miles...so total about 40,000 sq miles in round numbers. Dont think Putin will return anything.


689
Interesting piece by Martin Armstrong. We really need to think what is the end game...how much debt can the US and EU tolerate.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/basic-concepts/the-fed-the-collapse-of-socialism/

690
BTC is not yet in the clear, but a trend of higher lows. It would help if the US $ pulls back, but that may not happen if the Fed continues tightening for a few more times.


691
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: May 06, 2022, 04:10:21 AM »
All those Stingers arriving in Ukraine, could also end up elsewhere..say Europe. There are reports, that weapons are disappearing from Ukraine. Something to keep a watch on.

692
So who is buying Russian stuff. Note: the USA buys more than India and Europe buys a lot. Yet they pressure India to stop buying!


693
I have not purchased ETH in years...but folks are talking about thousands in fees...

694
ETH fees, below.  BTC is a few cents.


695
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:28:03 PM »
If we keep sending weapons, a tactical weapon, perhaps an EMP device above Kiev is a distinct possibility. The USA is not likely to do much.

696
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:59:28 AM »
Pl. see this map and tell me how is Russia losing the war. The purple color is Russian speaking area before the invasion and the red pink is after the invasion. The red/pink areas will not be returned. Secondly, Russia has occupied the land mass adjacent to Crimea up to the Dnieper river, such that Ukr can no longer shut down the water supply to Crimea (which they did in the past). Yes, one can argue that its taking time, but Russia does care about public opinion and will not level everything.


697
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 30, 2022, 04:36:13 AM »
There is a lot of discussion in the western press, that Russia is losing, mostly because it has not yet achieved its goals. It should have won as even Stratfor above says the expectation was "if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly".

The criteria for winning a war is to meet objectives and not necessarily timelines set up by the west. While the west keeps harping that Russia withdrew from Kyiv, could it be that was just a feint to draw Ukrainian troops to Kyiv while it gobbled up the south and east. Ukraine is a large country, its near impossible to maintain supply lines up to Kyiv, what Russia can do is capture and keep all the south and east Russian speaking areas and that is what they are doing. They are still expanding near Kherson with a goal to move towards Odessa and threaten Mykolaiv. I also see that Russians are starting to pull back from the Kharkiv region (North east), which was meant to draw Ukrainian forces and keep them busy. Might even make a land bridge to Moldova (Russian speaking area of Transnystria).

Russia has energy and food security. I dont see Putin backing down. If pushed, he will use more force, which means Ukraine will be destroyed into rubble for decades. The wise thing for Ukr was to have elections in the Russian speaking areas and let them align with Russia. I see no scenario where Russia gives back captured territories. May 9 is victory day in Russia.

698
This man is the saviour of some.


699
CAR (Central African Republic) adopts BTC as currency. El Salv was first. Slowly then suddenly...

700
We need the $ to pull back and up goes BTC. These days BTC also correlates to SP500.

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