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Politics & Religion / WSJ: SCOTUS gerrymander decision
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on Today at 01:45:24 PM »
The Supreme Court on Racial Gerrymandering
In a South Carolina case, the Justices clarify the high bar required for judicial intervention to overrule legislatures.
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May 27, 2024 3:44 pm ET




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Sen. Dick Harpootlian, D-S.C., compares his proposed map of House districts drawn with 2020 Census data to a plan supported by Republicans on Jan. 20, 2022, in Columbia, S.C. PHOTO: JEFFREY COLLINS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Supreme Court, in a 6-3 ruling last week, upheld a U.S. House map in South Carolina that lower judges had rejected as an illegal racial gerrymander. On the facts of the case, it’s a good call. Even better is that the majority opinion by Justice Samuel Alito explains principles that set a high bar before judges intervene in the inherently political process of redrawing district lines.

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After the last census, Republicans in South Carolina wanted to shore up their advantage in the First District, which they lost to a Democrat in 2018 before GOP Rep. Nancy Mace won it in 2020. The Legislature’s map raised the district’s Republican vote share to 54% from 53%. As the Supreme Court held in Rucho v. Common Cause (2019), partisan gerrymandering is nonjusticiable, meaning federal courts can’t police it. But the state NAACP argued that South Carolina’s map was a racial gerrymander, which the High Court has said judges can adjudicate.

The trick is telling the difference, given racially polarized voting patterns. Was the First District drawn to exclude more Democrats, who happen to be black? Or was it drawn to exclude more black voters, who happen to be Democrats? The map’s creator testified that he relied “one hundred percent” on partisan data. But a three-judge panel in district court, based on circumstantial evidence, said it believed “race was the predominant factor.”

Justice Alito, joined by the rest of the Court’s conservatives, has a rebuke in Alexander v. S.C. Conf. of NAACP. The plaintiffs had “no direct evidence of a racial gerrymander, and their circumstantial evidence is very weak,” he writes. “None of the facts on which the District Court relied to infer a racial motive is sufficient to support an inference that can overcome the presumption of legislative good faith.”

It’s a strong directive for future disputes. “If either politics or race could explain a district’s contours, the plaintiff has not cleared its bar,” Justice Alito says. If it were otherwise, litigants could circumvent Rucho. Anyone who opposes a politically unfavorable map could “reverse-engineer the partisan data into racial data,” and then file a racial lawsuit instead.

Justice Elena Kagan, writing in dissent for the three liberals, complains that the trial court is owed more deference, and its finding of a racial gerrymander was “reasonable.” She says Justice Alito’s standards are meant to derail these lawsuits. “This Court has prohibited race-based gerrymanders for a reason,” she argues. “They divide citizens on racial lines to engineer the results of elections.”

Yet isn’t that what federal courts are doing now? Justice Clarence Thomas, in a solo concurrence, cites a case from Washington state. “A District Court recently concluded that Hispanic voters in a majority-Hispanic district lacked an opportunity to elect the candidate of their choice, even though the district elected a Hispanic Republican,” he writes. “The court later purported to correct the lack of Hispanic opportunity by imposing a remedial map that made the district ‘substantially more Democratic,’ but slightly less Hispanic.”

Justice Thomas would extend Rucho’s logic and find racial gerrymandering nonjusticiable as well, since it turns “on questions that cannot be answered through the kind of reasoning that constitutes an exercise of the ‘judicial Power.’” Redistricting involves trade-offs: Cohesive communities can sprawl into odd shapes, and uniting one might mean splitting another. Whether map makers “packed” voters or simply aimed for compact districts, Justice Thomas says, is “too often in the eye of the beholder.”

Gerrymandering complaints are as old as the Republic, they may never end, and there’s no panacea. But the majority is right: Judges being asked to override elected lawmakers should require stronger evidence of racial motivation than was present in South Carolina, or in most such lawsuits.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Media, Ministry of Truth Issues
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on Today at 12:31:05 PM »
Heh heh  :-D
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Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on Today at 11:50:03 AM »
The jurors have not been sequestered.
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Politics & Religion / WSJ: The upcoming election
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on Today at 11:47:08 AM »


Could Mexico’s Election Spring a Surprise?
AMLO’s ruling party is trying to demoralize supporters of the opposition candidate and convince them to stay home.
Mary Anastasia O’Grady
May 26, 2024 2:36 pm ET


The “Pink Tide” demonstrations that swept Mexico on May 19 weren’t a popular cry for socialism, as the name might imply. Quite the opposite. The hundreds of thousands who turned out in urban plazas across the nation were part of a nonpartisan movement fighting to preserve the independence of the National Electoral Institute. The INE, as it is known, referees political campaigns and elections. The Mexico City government estimated the crowd in the capital’s main square at 95,000.

The citizen drive to support INE autonomy is pushback against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been trying to bring the electoral body under control of the executive and stifle its impartiality. The INE’s signature shade is pink. So movement organizers appropriated the color as a marketing tool. Of note is how those marches also turned into rallies for opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Gálvez, who will square off against Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of Mr. López Obrador’s Morena party, on June 2.

Ms. Sheinbaum was handpicked by the president, who is known as AMLO, and is a symbol of continuity with his agenda. Her threats to use executive power to crush pluralism and grab control of the Supreme Court frighten Mexican democrats. If she succeeds, the country could revert to a one-party state, as it was during the 71-year rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.

Ms. Gálvez is the undisputed underdog in this race. Since before the campaign officially began, Mr. López Obrador has been running up the fiscal deficit, using government programs to throw money at voters and the economy. He also has used his bully pulpit to campaign for Ms. Sheinbaum, in violation of electoral law.

To win, Ms. Gálvez needs voter turnout in the mid-60% range, which is why the government wants to paint a picture that the race is over and going to the polls is a waste of time for her supporters. Some polling companies, allegedly financed by Morena or its supporters, happily assist by producing household surveys that show the challenger 20 points behind with no chance.

Skepticism is in order. Even if pollsters don’t have bias, it’s important to keep in mind that while household surveys are traditionally a good measurement, today they are notoriously unreliable because the middle class generally refuses to participate.

Meantime, daily polls released by the polling company Massive Caller last week showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with around 12% undecided. Massive Caller uses a technique of random dialing that has been much more accurate than traditional polling methods in recent state elections. The polling company Mexico Elige, which uses social media, also has the race within the margin of error.

Debates over polling methodology remain unsettled. But another way to sniff out voter intention is to look at top priorities. In a national survey published by Mexico Elige earlier this month, nearly 27% of respondents said the No. 1 problem facing the country is public safety. The second most popular response to the question was corruption, and the third was violence. In fourth place was narcotics trafficking. Together these four issues, all dependent on the rule of law, made up 72% of responses. This suggests wide dissatisfaction with how the government has handled one of its most important roles and an appetite for change.

A lack of trust on the part of voters that pollsters will keep their responses confidential may also distort polling results. Mr. López Obrador remains personally popular. Going against him, or his intended successor, is politically incorrect in some quarters. Mexicans who receive subsidies from the government are likely to be more fearful than others that by expressing an intention to vote for Ms. Sheinbaum’s rival, they could get cross-ways with the local Morena chieftain and lose their benefits. A significant shy vote that turns out on election day could be part of a Gálvez surprise.

In 2018, when Mr. López Obrador won with 53% of the vote, low turnout played a big role in his victory. He was helped by the split in the opposition vote between center-right candidate Ricardo Anaya from the National Action Party and the PRI candidate, Jose Antonio Meade. But when the incumbent PRI government threw mud at Mr. Anaya late in the race, alleging that he was corrupt, voters became discouraged. In many places in northern Mexico, which would have benefited from Mr. Anaya’s agenda of free trade and the rule of law, turnout hovered in the low 50% range. A rerun of voter malaise, this time because Ms. Gálvez is given up as a lost cause, would help Ms. Sheinbaum.

That’s what happened in the race for governor in the very important state of Mexico last year. Poll aggregators showed a 15-percentage-point lead for the Morena candidate, suggesting a blowout. Yet Morena won by only 8, sparking speculation that the overly grim forecast had pushed down participation (49%) and created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If that psychology prevails in the presidential race, and voter turnout is low, it will be good for Ms. Sheinbaum and Morena. But not so good for Mexico.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« Last post by DougMacG on Today at 08:15:36 AM »
They face pressure in deliberations from each other, but jurors also have to live with their verdict.  Which result is easiest to say forever, 'hey that was the right decision'?

Speaking of living with the decision, the politics of the spouse (of the juror and of politicians in general) is underestimated in these things.  "YOU VOTED TO ACQUIT HIM??!!"

You can hate Trump, want him to lose and never be President and still vote not to convict if that's what you see.  There are liberal commentators who have doubts about this feeble case.  Democrats can see that the persecution strategy is not been working to put him down. In fact it has helped him.

For both sides of it, can you (each juror) explain in a sentence or two why he is guilty or why the prosecution didn't fully make the case? It looks like he maybe had sex with a porn star lady doesn't do that.  Proving crime tied to an underlying, proven beyond a reasonable doubt crime, did credible testimony do that?  Pretty easy to say no.  It hinged on the word of a convicted liar and no underlying crime was really pinpointed.

Can and will 1, 2 or 3 of them who don't fully buy it hold out and stand their ground to the end? You would think yes but other political jury verdicts in NY and DC indicate no.  The (hate) politics of it will prevail is the betting line, I believe.

And then we have a "convicted felon" at the top of the ticket, even if overturned, like they wanted all along, and everyone will have their own opinion, like the OJ verdict - in reverse.

'Republicans don't accept election results. They don't even accept jury verdicts.'
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Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« Last post by ccp on Today at 07:49:58 AM »
"Two lawyers on the jury.  Will they or someone else have sway on the rest?"

In an honest justice system one would think they would exonerate DJT.
The fact they are lawyers (most are crats) AND NY lawyers (most NY residents are crats)
makes me think they will vote against Trump.

Megan Kelly's opinion , FWIW is that the fix is surely in and she predicts the jury will GET Trump.
I don't know.

We only need one juror to vote for DJT
Can anyone imagine the pressure on that one juror.

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