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Messages - Crafty_Dog

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1
From the Deep State thread a few days ago-- guess who is behind this play?

"James Clapper and John Brennan"?!?  The Axis of the Deep State and the Controligarchs burrows in deeper yet:
=========================
Forward Observer

(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.

DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.

Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.

2
Politics & Religion / Re: Anti-semitism & Jews
« on: Today at 03:53:57 PM »
Nice work.

3
About 20 miles from our home:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/special-operations-soldier-under-investigation-in-deadly-shooting-of-accused-trespasser-in-north-carolina/ar-BB1mV91J

This is about three weeks old, but Jennifer Griffin had a major piece on this tonight on Bret Baier.  Can someone find it and post it here please?


4
"Upon further reading, Locke and his philosophical progeny understood the "laws of nature" are the moral law that God plainly reveals to all of humanity and can be discerned through reason, and without religious observance."

From a pleasant conversation on another forum.   The reference to "the Laws of Nature" is from our Declaration of Independence's phrase "the laws of Nature and of Nature's God".

5
Interesting  8-)

Reminds me of the observatory on the mountain top at Picacho del Diablo in Baja Calif ornia.   Badly out of date now, but the starting principle of altitude in an area of low human light pollution is in play.

6
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Science
« on: Today at 02:49:25 PM »
OOOOOOHHH!!! 

I think I like this!!!

 :evil: :evil: :evil:

Who judges?

Who pays?

How is the amount to be paid calculated?

And to whom does it go?

7
Am I correct to assess that this passage is quite congurent with Lorenz's work?

==================


With extensive imaging of the brain, neuroscientists today agree that consciousness emerges from the brain’s wiring and activity. But multiple theories argue about how electrical signals in the brain produce rich and intimate experiences of our lives.

Part of the problem, wrote the authors, is that there isn’t a clear definition of “consciousness.” In this paper, they separated the term into two experiences: one outer, one inner. The outer experience, called phenomenal consciousness, is when we immediately realize what we’re experiencing—for example, seeing a total solar eclipse or the northern lights.

The inner experience is a bit like a “gut feeling” in that it helps to form expectations and types of memory, so that tapping into it lets us plan behaviors and actions.

Both are aspects of consciousnesses, but the difference is hardly delineated in previous work. It makes comparing theories difficult, wrote the authors, but that’s what they set out to do.

Meet the Contenders

Using their “two experience” framework, they examined five prominent consciousness theories.

The first, the global neuronal workspace theory, pictures the brain as a city of sorts. Each local brain region “hub” dynamically interacts with a “global workspace,” which integrates and broadcasts information to other hubs for further processing—allowing information to reach the consciousness level. In other words, we only perceive something when all pieces of sensory information—sight, hearing, touch, taste—are woven into a temporary neural sketchpad. According to this theory, the seat of consciousness is in the frontal parts of the brain.

8
That was super interesting for me.

Konrad Lorenz's "Behind the Mirror" has been of deep influence to me in this regard:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behind_the_Mirror

Behind the Mirror

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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Behind the Mirror

Cover of the first edition
Author   Konrad Lorenz
Original title   Die Rückseite des Spiegels
Country   Austria
Language   German
Published   1973
Media type   Print (hardcover)
Pages   261

Behind the Mirror: A Search for a Natural History of Human Knowledge (German: Die Rückseite des Spiegels, Versuch einer Naturgeschichte menschlichen Erkennens) is a 1973 book by the ethologist Konrad Lorenz.[1] Lorenz shows the essentials of a lifetime's work and summarizes it into his very own philosophy: evolution is the process of growing perception of the outer world by living nature itself. Stepping from simple to higher organized organisms he shows how they benefit from information processing. The methods mirrored by organs have been created in the course of evolution as the natural history of this organism. Lorenz uses the mirror as a simplified model of our brain reflecting the part of information from the outside world it is able to "see". The backside of the mirror was created by evolution to gather as much information as needed to better survive. The book gives a hypothesis how consciousness was "invented" by evolution.

One of the key positions of the book included the criticism of Immanuel Kant, arguing that the philosopher failed to realize that knowledge, as mirrored by the human mind is the product of evolutionary adaptations.[2]

Kant has maintained that our consciousness[3] or our description and judgments about the world could never mirror the world as it really is so we can not simply take in the raw data that the world provides nor impose our forms on the world.[4] Lorenz disputed this, saying it is inconceivable that - through chance mutations and selective retention - the world fashioned an instrument of cognition that grossly misleads man about such world. He said that we can determine the reliability of the mirror by looking behind it.[2]

Summary
Lorenz summarizes his life's work into his own philosophy: Evolution is the process of growing perception of the outer world by living nature itself. Stepping from simple to higher organized organisms, Lorenz shows how they gain and benefit from information. The methods mirrored by organs have been created in the course of evolution as the natural history of this organism.

In the book, Lorenz uses the mirror as a simple model of the human brain that reflects the part of the stream of information from the outside world it is able to "see". He argued that merely looking outward into the mirror ignores the fact that the mirror has a non-reflecting side, which is also a part and parcel of reality.[5] The backside of the mirror was created by evolution to gather as much information as needed to better survive. The picture in the mirror is what we see within our mind. Within our cultural evolution we have extended this picture in the mirror by inventing instruments that transform the most needed of the invisible to something visible.

The back side of the mirror is acting for itself as it processes the incoming information to improve speed and effectiveness. By that human inventions like logical conclusions are always in danger to be manipulated by these hardwired prejudices in our brain. The book gives a hypothesis how consciousness was invented by evolution.

Main topics

Fulguratio, the flash of lightning, denotes the act of creation of a totally new talent of a system, created by the combination of two other systems with talents much less than those of the new system. The book shows the "invention" of a feedback loop by this process.

Imprinting, is the phase-sensitive learning of an individual that is not reversible. It's a static program run only once.

Habituation is the learning method to distinguish important information from unimportant by analysing its frequency of occurrence and its impact.

Conditioning by reinforcement, occurs when an event following a response causes an increase in the probability of that response occurring in the future. The ability to do this kind of learning is hardwired in our brain and is based on the principle of causality. The discovery of causality (which is a substantial element of science and Buddhism) was a major step of evolution in analysing the outer world.

Pattern matching is the abstraction of different appearances into the identification of being one object and is available only in highly organized creatures

Exploratory behaviour is the urge of the highest developed creatures on earth to go on with learning after maturity and leads to self-exploration which is the base for consciousness.

=======================

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Konrad-Lorenz

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Article History
Konrad Lorenz
Konrad Lorenz
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Born: Nov. 7, 1903, Vienna, Austria
Died: Feb. 27, 1989, Altenburg (aged 85)
Awards And Honors: Nobel Prize (1973)
Subjects Of Study: aggressive behaviour animal behaviour evolution imprinting
Konrad Lorenz (born Nov. 7, 1903, Vienna, Austria—died Feb. 27, 1989, Altenburg) was an Austrian zoologist and the founder of modern ethology, the study of animal behaviour by means of comparative zoological methods. His ideas contributed to an understanding of how behavioral patterns may be traced to an evolutionary past, and he was also known for his work on the roots of aggression. He shared the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine in 1973 with the animal behaviourists Karl von Frisch and Nikolaas Tinbergen.

Lorenz was the son of an orthopedic surgeon. He showed an interest in animals at an early age, and he kept animals of various species—fish, birds, monkeys, dogs, cats, and rabbits—many of which he brought home from his boyhood excursions. While still young, he provided nursing care for sick animals from the nearby Schönbrunner Zoo. He also kept detailed records of bird behaviour in the form of diaries.

Mushrooms growing in forest. (vegetable; fungus; mushroom; macrofungi; epigeous)
Britannica Quiz
Science at Random Quiz
In 1922, after graduating from secondary school, he followed his father’s wishes that he study medicine and spent two semesters at Columbia University, in New York City. He then returned to Vienna to study.

During his medical studies Lorenz continued to make detailed observations of animal behaviour; a diary about a jackdaw that he kept was published in 1927 in the prestigious Journal für Ornithologie. He received an M.D. degree at the University of Vienna in 1928 and was awarded a Ph.D. in zoology in 1933. Encouraged by the positive response to his scientific work, Lorenz established colonies of birds, such as the jackdaw and greylag goose, published a series of research papers on his observations of them, and soon gained an international reputation.

In 1935 Lorenz described learning behaviour in young ducklings and goslings. He observed that at a certain critical stage soon after hatching, they learn to follow real or foster parents. The process, which is called imprinting, involves visual and auditory stimuli from the parent object; these elicit a following response in the young that affects their subsequent adult behaviour. Lorenz demonstrated the phenomenon by appearing before newly hatched mallard ducklings and imitating a mother duck’s quacking sounds, upon which the young birds regarded him as their mother and followed him accordingly.

In 1936 the German Society for Animal Psychology was founded. The following year Lorenz became coeditor in chief of the new Zeitschrift für Tierpsychologie, which became a leading journal for ethology. Also in 1937, he was appointed lecturer in comparative anatomy and animal psychology at the University of Vienna. From 1940 to 1942 he was professor and head of the department of general psychology at the Albertus University at Königsberg, Germany (now Kaliningrad, Russia).


From 1942 to 1944 he served as a physician in the German army and was captured as a prisoner of war in the Soviet Union. He was returned to Austria in 1948 and headed the Institute of Comparative Ethology at Altenberg from 1949 to 1951. In 1950 he established a comparative ethology department in the Max Planck Institute of Buldern, Westphalia, becoming codirector of the Institute in 1954. From 1961 to 1973 he served as director of the Max Planck Institute for Behaviour Physiology, in Seewiesen. In 1973 Lorenz, together with Frisch and Tinbergen, was awarded the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine for their discoveries concerning animal behavioral patterns. In the same year, Lorenz became director of the department of animal sociology at the Institute for Comparative Ethology of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Altenberg.

Lorenz’s early scientific contributions dealt with the nature of instinctive behavioral acts, particularly how such acts come about and the source of nervous energy for their performance. He also investigated how behaviour may result from two or more basic drives that are activated simultaneously in an animal. Working with Nikolaas Tinbergen of the Netherlands, Lorenz showed that different forms of behaviour are harmonized in a single action sequence.

Lorenz’s concepts advanced the modern scientific understanding of how behavioral patterns evolve in a species, particularly with respect to the role played by ecological factors and the adaptive value of behaviour for species survival. He proposed that animal species are genetically constructed so as to learn specific kinds of information that are important for the survival of the species. His ideas have also cast light on how behavioral patterns develop and mature during the life of an individual organism.

In the latter part of his career, Lorenz applied his ideas to the behaviour of humans as members of a social species, an application with controversial philosophical and sociological implications. In a popular book, Das sogenannte Böse (1963; On Aggression), he argued that fighting and warlike behaviour in man have an inborn basis but can be environmentally modified by the proper understanding and provision for the basic instinctual needs of human beings. Fighting in lower animals has a positive survival function, he observed, such as the dispersion of competitors and the maintenance of territory. Warlike tendencies in humans may likewise be ritualized into socially useful behaviour patterns. In another work, Die Rückseite des Spiegels: Versuch einer Naturgeschichte menschlichen Erkennens (1973; Behind the Mirror: A Search for a Natural History of Human Knowledge), Lorenz examined the nature of human thought and intelligence and attributed the problems of modern civilization largely to the limitations his study revealed.

9
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: FDA vs. medical freedom
« on: Today at 02:28:12 PM »
"prove cold treatment"

"proveN cold treatment"?

10
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Natural Law
« on: Today at 02:22:07 PM »
"Upon further reading, Locke and his philosophical progeny understood the "laws of nature" are the moral law that God plainly reveals to all of humanity and can be discerned through reason, and without religious observance."

From a pleasant conversation on another forum.   The reference to "the Laws of Nature" is from our Declaration of Independence's phrase "the laws of Nature and of Nature's God".

11
Cool story!

Cool footage!

13
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Chinese vs America Naval Power
« on: May 22, 2024, 03:40:29 PM »


China’s Sea Power Leaves U.S. Adrift
With Beijing pursuing global supremacy across the oceans, America must rebuild its maritime sector.
By Mike Waltz and Mark Kelly By
Updated May 22, 2024 6:06 pm ET





In his 1890 book, “The Influence of Seapower Upon History,” Alfred Thayer Mahan identified a crucial factor in the British Empire’s rise to global dominance: a battle fleet. A strong force could protect a nation’s merchant marine and maritime commerce, which could finance national power. Mahan subsequently exhorted the U.S. to build such a fleet and reap the rewards.

America today faces its most significant great-power threat since the end of the Cold War, especially on the seas. China has learned Mahan’s lessons well. Its international shipbuilding industry and expansive merchant marine, combined with its growing navy, pose a comprehensive threat to American prosperity and security.

China uses the world’s oceans to pursue global supremacy, employing coercion and economic intimidation against weaker nations. In the South China Sea it has seized more than a dozen islands in waters claimed by its neighbors. China is using the islands as military outposts, which serve to choke off the region’s economic and natural-resources lifelines. Beijing’s games of chicken with foreign ships contravene international law, risk dangerous escalation, and deny freedom of navigation to American allies and partners.

Yet the Communist Party’s reach and intentions extend beyond regional waters. China has become the world’s top shipbuilder. It controls one of the world’s largest shipping companies and boasts the largest navy. It has built these capabilities with the help of massive state subsidies.

By flouting international standards of fair market behavior, China has secured nearly half the world’s shipbuilding market as well as control over port and shipyard infrastructure around the world.

In shipbuilding, according to a conservative analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Security, China offered $132 billion in subsidies to the shipbuilding and shipping industries between 2010 and 2018. These industries are buttressed by policies like debt forgiveness, low-interest bond issuance, equity infusions and barriers to foreign competition.

Functionally, China’s shipbuilding industry is state-owned and leveraged to accelerate military-vessel construction. China has also invested nearly $60 billion into port projects around the world, including in such countries as Peru. Beijing makes the vast majority of cranes in these ports, including 80% in U.S. ports. Predatory lending practices enable it to gain control over facilities when poor nations can’t pay their debts, as happened in Sri Lanka in 2017.

Meanwhile, America’s commercial maritime industry has faltered. At the end of World War II, the U.S. boasted a fleet of more than 5,000 ships, which made up more than 40% of the world’s shipping capabilities. Today there are only about 90 U.S.-flagged ships involved in international trade, owing to increased international competition and scant support for the commercial maritime sector at home. At the same time, America’s maritime industrial base is shrinking.

The U.S. doesn’t subsidize commercial shipbuilders. Partially as a result, the U.S. lost 300 shipyards between 1983 and 2013. Today, only 20 U.S. shipyards can produce oceangoing vessels. Most of them, moreover, exclusively produce vessels for the U.S. Navy. The U.S. trade representative is currently investigating potentially unfair trade practices by China in shipbuilding, shipping and maritime logistics sectors, but such inquiries won’t rebuild the U.S. merchant fleet or production capabilities.

Since the end of the 1970s, the U.S. has increasingly relied on other nations to conduct trade. Today, 98% of America’s trade is done via foreign-flagged ships. Such reliance has left America less able to guarantee free access to the world’s economy. Mahan’s dictums hold true. A lack of competitiveness in maritime trade not only jeopardizes America’s ability to ensure its economic interests but also diminishes its capabilities to sustain its military power.

The U.S. must change course urgently. In our Congressional Guidance for a National Maritime Strategy—and with the support of a bipartisan alliance of maritime officials, industry leaders and lawmakers—we encourage our nation and its leaders to address our pressing maritime challenges.

Our framework proposes investment across the maritime sector to rebuild America’s ability to create and sustain a merchant fleet and industry. It offers proposals that will strengthen the U.S.-flagged international shipping fleet, domestic shipbuilding, and our maritime workforce. It also encourages private-sector investments and streamlines burdensome regulations.

America is flanked on both sides by oceans, making our economy dependent on trade and the vessels that enable commerce. We must ensure the safe passage of U.S. exports and imports that fuel our economy.

The next step is for Congress to codify our bipartisan guidance into the National Maritime Strategy, and for the president to adopt it. That will set a course for securing America’s edge at sea, recognizing the innovative and competitive spirit of the American people.

China’s threat over the oceans and how we respond to it will shape our economic and national security for decades. As former service members, we know that the oceans ensure our path to prosperity and security, today no less than a century ago.

Mr. Waltz, a Republican, represents Florida’s Sixth Congressional District. Mr. Kelly, a Democrat, is a U.S. senator from Arizona.

17
A key concept, well articulated.

20
Apparently the authorization is SOP, but given the Secret Service protection, SOP was highly inappropriate.

22
Feel free to double post this in the Deep State thread too.

29
Politics & Religion / Brennan and Clapper are back!
« on: May 21, 2024, 11:09:00 AM »
"James Clapper and John Brennan"?!?  The Axis of the Deep State and the Controligarchs burrows in deeper yet:
=========================
Forward Observer

(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.

DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.

Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.

30
Politics & Religion / Re: Iran
« on: May 21, 2024, 11:00:55 AM »
Operation Appeasement rolls on , , ,

31
Politics & Religion / Re: The Way Forward for the American Creed
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:59:34 AM »
I used to subscribe to Recoil.  Maybe I need to renew , , ,

32
Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:58:22 AM »
Thank you.

33
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Sweden enlistment very strong
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:56:45 AM »


Many Armies Struggle for Recruits. In Sweden They Turn Them Away.
U.S. and European militaries are straining to reinforce their ranks to deter Russia. Sweden’s answer is to conscript only the brightest.

A military exercise in Revingehed, Sweden.
By Sune Engel RasmussenFollow
 \ Photographs by Åsa Sjöström for The Wall Street Journal
Updated May 20, 2024 1:46 am ET

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REVINGEHED, Sweden—Deep in the Scandinavian forest, Elin Forsberg’s face is planted in the grass, her arms pinned to her back by two soldiers in mock arrest.

The 19-year-old high achiever is one of the newest members of Sweden’s armed forces and a product of its fiercely competitive conscription process.

“It’s a privilege,” Forsberg says of being chosen for military service—less than 10% make the cut. In this exercise, she is playing an enemy intruder at an arms depot with her new regiment, which later this year will send forces to Latvia as part of Sweden’s first international mission as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member.

To confront and deter an expansionist Moscow, the U.S. and many of Russia’s near neighbors are struggling to attract enough recruits to reinforce their militaries. Not so in Sweden, where each year the armed forces turn thousands of young men and women away.


Conscript Elin Forsberg undergoes a mock arrest during training.
As the newest member of NATO, Sweden is betting that the best way to bolster its defenses against Russian aggression is to stack its military with the country’s top performers. Conscription under the Swedish model now functions as a filter, not a dragnet. 

All young men and women in Sweden must enlist, but rigorous testing sorts the best from the rest. That has created a virtuous recruitment circle where military service, lasting up to 15 months depending on the role, is regarded as prestigious and conscripts compete for spots. Afterward, they join the country’s reservists for 10 years, or until they turn 47.

The system has proved so successful at nurturing talent that former conscripts are headhunted by the civil service and prized by tech companies. It could provide a model for the U.S., which in 2022 had its toughest recruitment year in almost five decades, dragging on America’s military might. As a proportion of its population, Sweden’s annual armed-forces recruitment rate now tops that in the U.S.

For months, Forsberg trained for the conscription tests by lifting weights and braving the blistering cold to run along the seafront in her hometown of Kungsbacka.

“I’ve always wanted to be part of it,” Forsberg said of the army. “If someone says they’re in the military, you look up to them.”


Less than 10% of Swedish military enlistees are chosen for compulsory military service.

Today, Sweden can mobilize around 66,000 uniformed personnel.
Becoming battle ready
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly reawakened Europe to the necessity of maintaining sizable, battle-ready armies. European intelligence officials say Russia anticipates a conflict with NATO within the next decade, and aims to raise a standing army of 1.5 million by the end of 2026. Russia’s military superiority over Ukraine will continue to grow, “unless Western countries quickly step up,” one intelligence official said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed warnings of a potential Russian attack on NATO members as “complete nonsense.” In early 2022, the Kremlin used similar language to ridicule American warnings that Russia planned to invade Ukraine.

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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that Europe should prepare for possible war with Russia by the end of the decade. He also has called Germany’s abolition of conscription in 2011 a mistake, adding earlier this month that it should be reintroduced.

Comprehensive conscription was common throughout Europe in the 19th century when countries such as France and Germany manned their armed forces mostly with men from lower classes; Russia often employed a coercive version. During the American Civil War, both sides had drafts, but the U.S. only reintroduced it, along with Britain, during the two World Wars. After the Cold War, most countries abandoned the practice.


Number of forces

Active armed forces

Estimated reservists

300,000

NATO members

100,000

1,500,000

FINLAND

1,100,000

NORWAY

RUSSIA

U.K.

North Sea

BELARUS

POLAND

GERMANY

UKRAINE

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

FRANCE

ROMANIA

Black Sea

ITALY

SPAIN

TURKEY

GREECE

Mediterreanean Sea

Note: Iceland is a NATO member but maintains only a coast guard service. NATO members U.S. and Canada not shown.

Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Emma Brown/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
But Sweden, apart from a brief gap during the 2010s, has relied on conscription for more than a century to populate its army. This year, out of about 100,000 young Swedes who had to enlist, just 6,200 made the cut for conscription, an annual increase of slightly more than 10%. The country aims to reach 8,000 conscripts next year, and 10,000 soon after that.

Selection is based on physical and mental fitness, IQ tests and motivation to serve. Health issues such as allergies, asthma or eczema can rule recruits out.

Forsberg did so well on her tests that the army picked her to train for the highly-skilled role of artillery observer for a company of Combat Vehicle 90s in the South Scanian Regiment.

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She began in March, an hour before the blue NATO flag with its white compass was hoisted on the base in Revingehed, marking the country’s accession to the alliance.

Not everyone who meets the military’s requirements wants to serve, and the armed forces have traditionally weeded out such people, to ensure that its soldiers are not just skilled, but also highly motivated. But to further increase its intake, the military might start insisting more of them join up, Swedish officials say. Evading the draft is punishable by a fine or up to a year in prison.




From left, conscripts Elin Forsberg and Emma Jonsson are 19 years old and Ida Carlsson is 20.
Long wars
While Western nations don’t have to match Russia soldier for soldier, the brutal war of attrition in Ukraine has shown that mass armies still matter, particularly in yearslong wars, said Jan Joel Andersson, senior analyst and expert on rearmament at the European Union Institute for Security Studies.

“NATO has far too few trained and equipped coherent units, or force packages, to fight a major war,” he said.

During a recent nine-day military exercise involving 1,000 soldiers and 200 officers, the South Scanian Regiment trained conscripts in Leopard battle tanks and Combat Vehicle 90s, both used by other European militaries, one of several ways Sweden is dovetailing with fellow NATO member states.

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From a hill overlooking the training area’s rolling fields, a group of engineers from the Swedish defense contractor Saab guided a Martlet MI-2 drone above the canopy of a forest, shooting lasers at a CV90 below. The soldiers returned laser fire, hitting the drone, which high-tailed to the hill, lights blinking. Re-creating Ukrainian battlefield conditions, the scenario was meant to give conscripts a taste of modern warfare, where enemy attacks come by land and from the sky.


The U.S. reintroduced compulsory conscription during the two World Wars. Men in New York City registering for the draft in 1917. PHOTO: LIBRARY OF CONGRESS, PRINTS & PHOTOGRAPHS DIVISION
Shrunken forces
After the Cold War, European nations cut their forces to the bone and replaced large conscription armies with smaller professional forces. Aging populations and expensive social welfare states meant that manning even small armies became difficult.

At the same time, focus shifted from territorial defense to new threats such as terrorism, and support for international missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, which along with advances in weapons technology lessened the need for mass armies.

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From 1990 to 2015, Germany—enlarged by reunification—shrank its combat battalion numbers from 215 to 34, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. In the same period, other European nations followed suit. Italy’s battalion numbers fell by 67% and France’s dropped by almost as much. British battalions were cut by almost half.

The U.S. struggles, too. In 2022, the U.S. Army had its toughest recruiting year since the advent of the all self-enlisted military in 1973, missing its recruitment goal by 25%. After lowering its target from 65,000 to 55,000 recruits, the Army is optimistic about meeting the mark this year. The Navy, however, anticipates a shortfall of about 6,700 on its ambition to recruit 40,000 sailors, the second year in a row that it will undershoot.



Potential Swedish conscripts must undergo psychological and physical testing.
Large-scale demilitarization
When the Berlin Wall fell, Sweden dismantled huge parts of its military infrastructure and reduced its troop strength by more than 90% from its peak in the 1960s. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces sounded the alarm in 2013, saying the country would only be able to defend itself against an armed aggressor for a week.

Today, Sweden can mobilize around 66,000 uniformed personnel, including some 12,000 reserves and over 20,000 home guards, compared with 850,000 men and women during the height of the Cold War in the 1960s. The aim is to increase the number of active forces to more than 100,000 by 2030.

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“Sweden has gone from being a huge organization in the 1980s with a regiment in every town and city, to an anorexic organization in the mid 2000s,” said Johan Österberg, expert on military conscription with the Swedish Defence University. Rebuilding a military takes more than recruits, and even with sufficient numbers, “we don’t have buildings for them to sleep in,” he said.

Since 2017, about 100,000 Swedes each year must fill out an online questionnaire for the armed forces from which about 20% are selected to undergo psychological and physical testing. Around one-third of them are picked as conscripts.


A military exercise in Revingehed, Sweden.

Sweden has proved so successful at nurturing military talent that former conscripts are headhunted by the civil service and prized by tech companies.
In high school, “I dreamed about doing conscription,” said Ida Carlsson, who arrived at the South Scanian Regiment in March and was selected to become its first female reconnaissance platoon commander in 13 years. “I was very impatient.”

Norway has a similar conscription model to Sweden. Of about 60,000 young Norwegians, the armed forces each year select about 40% for tests and pick about 10,000 to serve. The Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Denmark also are looking at introducing or updating their conscription programs.

Because Swedish military service attracts the best in class of any generation, civilian employers value former conscripts. After 14 months of military service as a Persian interpreter, Anders Fridén completed a tour to Afghanistan and went straight into a job at the Swedish Embassy in Tehran. The foreign service explicitly advertised for applicants who had done military service, Fridén said.

Since then, he has worked as a management consultant in the U.S., and is now at a tech company in Zurich. The 35-year-old said all his employers had valued the skills his military service had taught him.

“I think there is a recognition in society that this is a useful thing to do,” he said.

Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com

34
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Crypto PACs
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:45:40 AM »


The Crypto Industry Is Trying to Elect Political Allies. The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher.
Coinbase, Kraken and others are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown

ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ; ISTOCK
By Caitlin Ostroff and Vicky Ge Huang
May 21, 2024 8:00 am ET




Crypto companies are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown. Their latest strategy: spending big on this year’s elections.

The industry has amassed a formidable war chest and is working to elect politicians it sees as allies and defeat those who are critical. A trio of super political-action committees has together raised more than $85 million, one of the largest amounts among PACs engaged in the 2024 elections.

Fairshake, along with two affiliated super PACs, raised the funds from an industry A-list, including crypto exchange Coinbase COIN 1.18%increase; green up pointing triangle Global and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest. The push is being powered by a surge in crypto prices.

“This is the first time we’ve really had all the pieces in place,” said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, an industry group.


Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association. PHOTO: ERIC LEE/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wealthy investors and big companies have long used campaign donations and lobbyists to win influence in Washington. What sets the crypto industry’s push apart this year is that its ability to keep operating in the U.S. is at stake. With regulators filing civil lawsuits alleging that the industry is running afoul of securities laws and prosecutors unsealing criminal indictments, some companies have been looking overseas for growth or relocating entirely.

Earlier this month, former President Donald Trump was asked what he would do if re-elected to stop crypto companies from leaving the U.S.

“If we are going to embrace it, then we have to let them be here,” Trump said in support of the industry at Mar-a-Lago, his social club and part-time residence in Florida.

Fairshake hasn’t yet weighed in on the presidential election.


Previous attempts by crypto advocates to influence elections haven’t been as well-funded. In 2022, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried contributed to a PAC that ultimately raised $12 million. A federal judge sentenced Bankman-Fried to a quarter-century in prison on several counts of fraud earlier this year.

This cycle is different. The industry has banded together after a string of lawsuits from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Crypto firms have brought on more lobbyists, working to convince lawmakers that Bankman-Fried’s FTX isn’t indicative of the industry.

Fairshake, launched late last year, has been leading the efforts. The group brings together the major players in crypto, including the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial.

The efforts so far have focused on Congress. The industry is supporting legislation that would regulate issuers of stablecoins, or dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, which make it easier to trade in and out of the market. The legislation would set rules for issuers, including requiring that tokens are completely backed by reserves.


Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase Global, spoke at a Stand With Crypto rally in March. PHOTO: MARK ABRAMSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Fairshake built its war chest through both cash and cryptocurrency donations. Phil Potter, the former chief strategy officer at crypto exchange Bitfinex, donated 33 bitcoins to the PAC last summer, equivalent to about $1 million. Those tokens were sold for cash, a Fairshake spokesman said.

To date, Fairshake said it has spent $25 million in the current election cycle. Earlier this year, it unleashed its biggest spending spree to date, aimed at defeating Katie Porter, a California congresswoman who launched a Senate bid. The group deployed $10 million on ads against Porter, a beloved figure among many liberals and a critic of how much energy consumption bitcoin requires.

The ads by Fairshake focused on topics that resonate with voters more widely, claiming Porter took cash from “big banks, big pharma and big oil,” not on Porter’s crypto stance. Porter later lost the primary. 

Porter said that Fairshake isn’t engaging in genuine dialogue with candidates, and that the group is just trying to scare elected leaders into accepting their agenda.

It is unclear to what degree Fairshake’s efforts affected the outcome of the race. But the crypto industry is increasingly open about its desire to influence campaigns.

Stand With Crypto, a nonprofit spun off from Coinbase, recently announced the creation of its affiliated PAC. It also grades various politicians. President Biden, whose administration has waged a crackdown on crypto, got an “F.”

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won better marks after calling crypto a “bulwark against government and corporate expansion” at a conference last year. His grade from the group: an “A.”

36
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:26:18 AM »
Quite the tale!

And yes I sometimes forget how annoying many non-lawyers find being subjected to Socratic lines of questioning whereas for me it is simply a search for getting to definition of terms and clarity in what is being asserted.

In addition to my various misadventures in interaction with law enforcement (nowhere near those of your brother!) I regularly work with law enforcement during which I am exposed quite a bit to what the world looks like from an LEO perspective.

I do not deny the potency of your argument, but in equal measure as a general principle I find it quite implausible to suggest that police need to be as subject to lawsuits as anyone just walking around.  I could be mistaken, but it seems like that is where you are or are heading.

It's not a justice system, it is a legal system. 

Even when one "wins" litigation is a significant emotional event with high costs in emotion, time, energy, and money.   The plaintiff gets his lawyer with a contingency agreement, but someone must pay for the defendant's representation.

37
Politics & Religion / Re: Argentina Milei
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:14:22 AM »
A good and bright friend recently sent me some clippings, a few of which were from The Economist.  I used to read it back in the 70s and 80s, but the bias you describe oozes from its all-knowing aura of condescension.

38
Politics & Religion / GPF: The rift between Iran and Syria
« on: May 21, 2024, 10:10:48 AM »
May 21, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF

The Rift Between Iran and Syria
There is a desire shared by many to get Tehran out of Damascus.
By: Hilal Khashan

Syrian President Bashar Assad has reason to distance himself from his erstwhile ally Iran. It’s true that Iran helped stabilize the government in Damascus and was instrumental in putting down a rebel uprising, but its continued presence on Syrian territory is a threat to Assad – not least because it invites occasional strikes from Israel. Assad sees Israeli pressure as an opportunity to get rid of Iran for good, and to that end he has signaled an interest in meeting with the United States, which sees ousting Iran as a necessary step in rehabilitating the Syrian regime. Given the escalation between Iran and Israel, it is unlikely that Assad would have made such signals if he were not sincere in his desire to draw closer to the U.S. and further from Iran.

A Worn-Out Welcome

Although Iran still has significant influence in Damascus, Assad's government is no puppet state. Like all Syrian rulers before him, Assad wants political autonomy, giving priority to the preservation of his regime. He admits that Iran and Hezbollah helped his government survive, but he had hoped they would withdraw after defeating the rebels. Instead, Iran has intensified its military and intelligence presence without Assad's consent and against his plans to retake parts of the country controlled by radical Islamic movements. Iran's strategic project is to consolidate its presence in Syria regardless of who occupies the presidency. After taking control of so much Syrian territory, Assad no longer needs Iran, and he has no problem getting rid of it. Assad understands that Iran's presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria's reconstruction, and their absence will allow Tehran to retrieve the vast resources that it expended to shore up the regime. Assad knows that Iran is ready to abandon him and work with his successor if it reaches an agreement with Washington to achieve its ambitions in the Middle East.

In truth, Syrian-Iranian relations have been deteriorating for some time. Trust and common purpose have been replaced by disagreements and suspicion, especially over Iran’s propensity to dictate terms of Syrian policy concerning the Gulf Cooperation Council. Then there is the simple matter of resentment. Even before Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel, the Syrian theater was responsible for a significant amount of Iranian attrition. Hezbollah lost some of its most able commanders in Syria – in part to rebels, in part to Israel, and in part to Syrian forces themselves, with whom they repeatedly clashed over suspicious deals with the president’s brother, proceeds from illicit smuggling and general distrust. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who appreciated what Iran did for their country, the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to deteriorate.

Arab states, and particularly Arab Gulf states, also want to see Iran leave Syria. They have even made demands to that end, and given that they will be the ones to finance Syria's reconstruction, it’s not a demand Assad can ignore. Over the past year, Damascus has thus resumed diplomatic relations with several Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and regained its seat in the Arab League. Assad also participated in the Arab summit in Jeddah for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011. Notably, Assad exchanged congratulatory messages with many Arab heads of state on the advent of Ramadan, while Syrian and Iranian media were unusually quiet about similar exchanges between Assad and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

Iran suspects that the Syrian government is ready to make a deal with the West. After the Israeli airstrike that destroyed its consulate, Iran decided to move the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the suburbs of Damascus to areas near Lebanon – a move made out of concern that Assad was not interested in ensuring the safety of Iranian officers. Over the past year, Iranian officials have visited Syria more than ever because no Syrian personnel reporting directly to Tehran remain in positions of influence. These structural changes confirm that Assad began moving long ago to eliminate Iranian influence gradually.

In September 2020, for example, Assad moved to expel Arab fighters from the National Defense Forces, an Iranian-controlled group of militias formed in 2013 that included fighters from Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries. Despite Iranian penetration into the Syrian army, Assad has recently worked to limit Tehran's influence, especially regarding its use of militias to create parallel security structures not affiliated with his regime. As a first step, Assad authorized military intelligence to deal directly with Iranian-backed militias, Hezbollah and the notorious auxiliary forces. Assad wanted to organize combat forces on the ground under the supervision of military intelligence to limit Iran's control.

The Politics of Distrust

The rapport of the past years between Damascus and Tehran has disappeared and been overshadowed by mounting disagreements and suspicion, especially with Iran's increasing pressure on the Syrian government out of its desire to impose restrictions on Assad's regime to prevent it from engaging the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Even before Hezbollah's decision to open a secondary front against Israel last October, Hezbollah was suffering from a shortage of well-trained field commanders. Those of them who received advanced training from the IRGC are no longer around, systematically eliminated by the rebels or members of other regime militias. Hezbollah lost in Syria its most able commanders, who gained great military experience during its wars with Israel. However, its involvement in the war mafias and suspicious deals with the president's brother eliminated most of these officers. The lack of trust between the Syrian regime and its Hezbollah-led Shiite allies caused violent confrontations between them due to recurring disputes over the sharing of drug smuggling proceeds. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who cooperated with Iran, the strength of the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to fade.

Russia, another Syrian ally, is on board with ousting a potential competitor like Iran too. Maher Assad, the commander of the Fourth Division, which is the strongest in the regime's army and whose mission is to protect Damascus, deliberately got rid of Hezbollah fighters in collaboration with a certain Russian unit that monitored the movements of Hezbollah's personnel and informed the Fourth Division of their whereabouts. Sometimes, the Fourth Division provided the rebel forces with classified information about Hezbollah's commanders to ambush them.

Iran is concerned that Russia, which intervened on Assad's side with decisive air power in 2015, may compete with it for postwar reconstruction contracts. These concerns escalated in 2016, when Damascus agreed to give Russia priority in reconstruction contracts, and in 2019, when Assad granted Russia exclusive rights to operate Syria's hydrocarbon fields. Recent bilateral agreements between Syria and Russia have further heightened Iran's concerns about its interests in postwar Syria. Assad’s extending such privilege to Moscow has alarmed Tehran, which believes, given its financial and economic contributions to Damascus and direct participation in the war, that it deserves commensurate compensation without competing with Moscow. For Assad, Moscow's influence counters Tehran's desire to make Syria a client state. In the long term, Iran poses a threat to Russia's military and political intentions in Syria. While Moscow prefers Syria to be a secular, federal state capable of maintaining its coastal military bases, Tehran is interested in expanding its regional influence through a fragmented and sectarian Syria.

Regardless of Assad's preference to get rid of Iran's influence, replacing it with Russia might not be more appealing since Arab countries that worked with Soviet leaders in the 1950s and 1960s had difficulty communicating with them or getting them to honor mutual agreements. Even before the 2011 Syrian uprising, Iran was actively laying the ground for permanently positioning itself in the country. Even though Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been working on rehabilitating Assad's regime in the Arab region, he still has doubts about them. In a speech delivered in 2006, Assad described the GCC rulers as "half men," viewing them as "indentured slaves" of the United States.

It’s unclear how the U.S., for its part, feels about a possible rapprochement with Syria. It would relish any opportunity to isolate Iran, but it is also leading the charge in opposing normalization between Syria and the Arab world. Still, the war in Gaza has accentuated some of the differences between Iran and Syria such that Damascus believes there is now an opportunity to make its move.

Syria is an improbable country, severely divided along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines. In the 1950s, it was an arena for regional power competition. Bashar’s father, Hafez Assad, used excessive repression to control and transform it into a modest regional power. The Assads are minority rulers, and many see Bashar as paranoid and conspiracist. Even so, Bashar allowed Iranian influence in the country after he pulled out the Syrian army from Lebanon in 2005. Despite the rift between the Assad regime and Iran, the odds are that postwar Syria will reemerge into a weak state dominated by other countries, including Iran, which will be one of several states meddling in its domestic affairs.

We value your though

39
Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« on: May 20, 2024, 03:58:03 PM »
Twitter is not posting for me, but I think myself sufficiently informed as to the point to heartily agree.  Witness e.g. what they have done to John Eastman.

40
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 20, 2024, 03:56:16 PM »

I draw your attention to this:

"Your passion on this issues seems to not notice the word "qualified"-- so far neither of us have engaged on the parameters of that qualification."

In other words, I am not holding myself out as better than you. 

I do not propose a definitive answer precisely because IMHO one is not possible. 

42
Politics & Religion / WSJ on the Mexican Election
« on: May 20, 2024, 07:55:19 AM »


The Election Stakes in Mexico
The big question: Will the ruling Morena party get a large enough legislative majority to rewrite the constitution?
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
May 19, 2024 4:57 pm ET

Mexicans vote to elect a new President on June 2, not that you’d know it from the lack of American media coverage of our southern neighbor. But the stakes are high, and the biggest question is whether the ruling Morena party of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be able to move closer to his vision of a one-party state.

AMLO, as the President is known, is term limited and won’t be on the ballot. But his handpicked Morena successor, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, is leading in the polls and pledges to continue his agenda of leftwing nationalist economics and eliminating constitutional checks and balances.

Opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez is a former National Action Party (PAN) senator. She’s running on an ideologically diverse coalition ticket that includes the leftwing Party of the Democratic Revolution, the centrist PRI and the center-right PAN. The parties have united in concern about a Sheinbaum presidency that could have AMLO pulling the political strings behind the throne.

Entrepreneurship, business competition, strong property rights and open markets are Gálvez campaign themes that set her apart from Ms. Sheinbaum and AMLO. Ms. Gálvez wants Mexico to live up to its free-trade commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and insists the U.S. do the same. On a visit to the Journal in February, she said that as president she would seek closer cooperation with the U.S. on economic and security matters. Ms. Gálvez’s Mexico would be an ally of the West.

This would break with Mr. López Obrador’s foreign policy. He’s been using migration as a bargaining chip with the Biden Administration to ward off U.S. action under USMCA to force Mexico to stop discriminating against foreign energy investors.

AMLO’s Mexico is an ally of Venezuela and Cuba and home to large numbers of Russian intelligence agents, according to U.S. Northern Command in 2022. He claims to follow a policy of not intervening in other countries, but three of his ambassadors have been declared persona non grata for meddling in support of the left in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador.

Cartel violence and extortion have long scarred Mexico, but they have spiked under AMLO. Mexico isn’t a failed state, at least not yet, but narcos now control large swaths of the country. The AMLO government has used financial investigations and confidential tax records against political adversaries. All of this has undermined the rule of law.

One irony is that AMLO is popular because Mexico has benefited from freer trade and the market reforms of his predecessors. Investment has flowed in as manufacturers seek to set up plants to serve the huge North American market. The Mexican peso has strengthened to nearly 17 to the U.S. dollar from more than 20 in 2018. Real wages are up and job creation is robust.

But AMLO’s policies put this economic progress at risk. The government forecasts a fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP this year despite a growing economy. It hopes to cut the deficit in half by 2025 with spending cuts that could easily turn out to be unrealistic. Pro-growth policies aren’t part of the Morena agenda, which favors heavy government spending and national corporate monopolies.

Mr. López Obrador is hoping that Ms. Sheinbaum wins with a big enough margin to carry Morena to two-thirds majorities in both legislative chambers. That would clear the way to amend the constitution and reverse the 2014 opening of Mexico’s energy markets, erode the independence of the Supreme Court and electoral authorities, and eliminate independent regulators. Morena now has simple majorities in both chambers and AMLO has used them to gradually change the Supreme Court.

High voter turnout would help Ms. Gálvez, who is trailing in most polls by double digits. AMLO’s government is using its media allies to claim the election is already over. But sampling bias and the potential of a large hidden vote could still produce a surprise. The future of Mexican democracy may depend on maintaining a check on AMLO’s designs

44
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 20, 2024, 04:56:10 AM »
A bit of a personal attack saying "I have no problem etc". 

I'm well aware that police sometimes act quite badly; indeed many years ago I was arrested and the officers lied on the stand but my attorney was able to put doubt as to their testimony in the judge's mind.   As the only white member of a nine man band, I''ve been roused roughly by police etc.

Your passion on this issues seems to not notice the word "qualified"-- so far neither of us have engaged on the parameters of that qualification.   

46
Politics & Religion / FO
« on: May 19, 2024, 02:19:23 PM »
1) CHINA CYBER HEARING: BLEAK PICTURE BEYOND BLINKING RED: During a House hearing on Chinese cyber threats, Oversight Cybersecurity Subcommittee Chair Nancy Mace (R-SC) said, “General Nakasone has stated that if a nation-state decided to attack our critical infrastructure, I would say that is above the threshold-level of war.”
Former Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center William Evanina said China’s recent actions, including the Volt Typhoon hacking campaign, strategic land purchases, maritime port threats, and fentanyl smuggling are “a bleak picture that is beyond blinking red.”
“The inability or unwillingness to look behind China, the curtain they provide, and deal with the existential threat is no longer an option for the Congress,” Evanina added.
Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal said Chinese hacking groups are more sophisticated and clandestine today, and their advanced tradecraft has made it incredibly difficult for organizations when Chinese hackers have compromised them.
Why It Matters: Chinese intrusion into U.S. networks, including defense and critical infrastructure, is very likely more extensive than publicly reported. The hearing witnesses echo previous statements from Biden officials that these intrusions by groups like Volt Typhoon are in preparation for a conflict, and the U.S. is not effectively deterring Chinese cyber activities. Cyber deterrence is an unanswered question at this point, and a gap remains between low-level cyber crime activities and cyber threats above the threshold of armed conflict. – R.C.

47
Politics & Religion / Re: Michael Yon
« on: May 19, 2024, 01:54:53 PM »
There have been whiffs of it previously, (that super hot blonde ex 60 Minutes reporter who was running with him a year or so ago) but some post 10/7 comments have left no doubt.

There has also been his association with , , , , wuzhizname, the one with the "Sandy Hook was a hoax" schtick , , ,

48
Politics & Religion / More Guns, Less Butter
« on: May 19, 2024, 01:51:17 PM »
The ‘Uniparty’ Is Real—but It Isn’t What You Think
Democrats and Republicans aren’t overzealous about foreign intervention. They’re feckless about American leadership.
By Dalibor Rohac
May 19, 2024 3:43 pm ET


From Ralph Nader to Steve Bannon, self-styled populists and outsiders have disparaged Washington’s “uniparty.” When this critique turns to foreign policy, the uniparty is accused of groupthink and militarism—dragging the U.S. into unnecessary and endless wars while neglecting the concerns of regular Americans.

While the epithet is often overstated and used in bad faith, it contains a kernel of truth. Foreign-policy experts from both parties agree on a lot, and that consensus can lead to poor decisions. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as America’s geopolitical competition with China, expose a bipartisan problem of this sort that critics of U.S. foreign policy frequently miss.

Today’s uniparty isn’t defined by a zeal to export democracy and launch ill-advised wars against governments that don’t threaten us. Rather, it is defined, on both the Democratic and the Republican side, by a lack of initiative and an urge to do things on the cheap and halfheartedly, to manage crises instead of resolving them. It is also fundamentally dishonest, as it suggests that peace and security can be sustained without major sacrifices.

On Oct. 10, when it was perfectly clear that Israel could no longer tolerate living side by side with Hamas and that this terrorist organization would have to meet the same fate as ISIS, President Biden promised that he would “make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself and respond to this attack.” Today, when support for the Jewish state has become a political liability for Mr. Biden in Michigan, his support for Israel is wobbly at best.

Ukraine is a similar story. Ukrainians are fully aware that “for as long as it takes” means until the end of 2024, when a new supplemental appropriation bill will be necessary. And whatever assistance the Biden administration has provided has come with strings attached. The U.S. is denying important weapons systems to Kyiv or restricting its use of them.

The problem is bipartisan. As Israel divides Democrats, Ukraine divides Republicans. Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s manifesto for the next Republican administration, admits as much, offering only the faint hope “that next conservative President” will seize “a generational opportunity to bring resolution to the foreign policy tensions within the movement.”

The list goes on. Unlike in the early 19th century, when the U.S. successfully defeated the Barbary pirates and their sponsors, freedom of navigation hasn’t been restored to the Red Sea, as Houthi rebels continue to control what is normally one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Even on China, there are few signs that the sudden centrality of Beijing’s threat has been translated into effective action, or that it would be under a second Trump administration. As the China archhawk Elbridge Colby tweeted recently, “Americans are war-weary and more skeptical of military interventions. Taiwan matters a great deal to Americans. But it’s not existential and it’s remote to most.”

In short, as the world burns and new conflagrations loom, our uniparty pretends that business as usual is adequate—or, worse yet, that ignoring the world will somehow enable us to address problems at home. It is an illusion. If you’re concerned about the southern border, our asylum system being overrun, or about the fentanyl crisis, you have to care about the political stability and security of America’s neighbors to the south—a subject on which both political parties remain largely silent.

The U.S. needs to adjust to a more dangerous world. It is past time to prioritize hard power over other areas of government spending—in other words, more guns and less butter—and plug the holes left by decades of enjoying the “peace dividend.” Yet keeping the existing entitlement schemes intact even as they head for bankruptcy remains a central tenet of America’s uniparty—a rare point of domestic bipartisan consensus in a polarized time.

As the eras of World War II and the Cold War illustrate, the U.S. can lead the world. That requires political leadership capable of defeating the complacent, feckless, and shortsighted uniparty.

Mr. Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

50
BTC’s big new HODLer is … Wisconsin?!

After a week of lower volatility, crypto prices spiked on Wednesday as new U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures showed inflation easing slightly. One key index, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy costs, hit its lowest rate since April 2021.

As markets of all kinds got a boost, BTC climbed toward $65,000 and ETH approached $3,000.

Meanwhile, the BTC ETF category saw weekly inflows return for the first time in a month and futures markets continue to suggest a bullish path for BTC, with many traders betting on a new all-time high north of $75,000 by the end of June.

Here are three more crypto stories to know this week.

1. Wisconsin reveals $160 million crypto portfolio

The spot BTC ETFs that began trading in January were created in part to make crypto a more viable option for big-money institutional investors like pension funds.

According to a new SEC filing, that promise is already coming true. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board — which manages state-employee retirement funds among other assets — disclosed that as of the end of March, it held around $160 million in spot BTC ETFs (split between BlackRock’s and Grayscale’s funds).

Those weren’t the board’s only crypto-related investments. According to the Block, “shares of other cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Block, Cipher Mining, Cleanspark and MicroStrategy were also in the Board's portfolio.” 

Follow the leader... According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, other big institutional investors are likely to follow in Wisconsin’s footsteps. “Normally you don't get these big fish institutions … for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity),” he noted, “but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds.”

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