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Politics & Religion / Brennan and Clapper are back!
« on: Today at 11:09:00 AM »
"James Clapper and John Brennan"?!? The Axis of the Deep State and the Controligarchs burrows in deeper yet:
=========================
Forward Observer
(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.
Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.
=========================
Forward Observer
(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.
Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.
4
Politics & Religion / Re: The Way Forward for the American Creed
« on: Today at 10:59:34 AM »
I used to subscribe to Recoil. Maybe I need to renew , , ,
5
Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« on: Today at 10:58:22 AM »
Thank you.
6
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Sweden enlistment very strong
« on: Today at 10:56:45 AM »Many Armies Struggle for Recruits. In Sweden They Turn Them Away.
U.S. and European militaries are straining to reinforce their ranks to deter Russia. Sweden’s answer is to conscript only the brightest.
A military exercise in Revingehed, Sweden.
By Sune Engel RasmussenFollow
\ Photographs by Åsa Sjöström for The Wall Street Journal
Updated May 20, 2024 1:46 am ET
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REVINGEHED, Sweden—Deep in the Scandinavian forest, Elin Forsberg’s face is planted in the grass, her arms pinned to her back by two soldiers in mock arrest.
The 19-year-old high achiever is one of the newest members of Sweden’s armed forces and a product of its fiercely competitive conscription process.
“It’s a privilege,” Forsberg says of being chosen for military service—less than 10% make the cut. In this exercise, she is playing an enemy intruder at an arms depot with her new regiment, which later this year will send forces to Latvia as part of Sweden’s first international mission as a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member.
To confront and deter an expansionist Moscow, the U.S. and many of Russia’s near neighbors are struggling to attract enough recruits to reinforce their militaries. Not so in Sweden, where each year the armed forces turn thousands of young men and women away.
Conscript Elin Forsberg undergoes a mock arrest during training.
As the newest member of NATO, Sweden is betting that the best way to bolster its defenses against Russian aggression is to stack its military with the country’s top performers. Conscription under the Swedish model now functions as a filter, not a dragnet.
All young men and women in Sweden must enlist, but rigorous testing sorts the best from the rest. That has created a virtuous recruitment circle where military service, lasting up to 15 months depending on the role, is regarded as prestigious and conscripts compete for spots. Afterward, they join the country’s reservists for 10 years, or until they turn 47.
The system has proved so successful at nurturing talent that former conscripts are headhunted by the civil service and prized by tech companies. It could provide a model for the U.S., which in 2022 had its toughest recruitment year in almost five decades, dragging on America’s military might. As a proportion of its population, Sweden’s annual armed-forces recruitment rate now tops that in the U.S.
For months, Forsberg trained for the conscription tests by lifting weights and braving the blistering cold to run along the seafront in her hometown of Kungsbacka.
“I’ve always wanted to be part of it,” Forsberg said of the army. “If someone says they’re in the military, you look up to them.”
Less than 10% of Swedish military enlistees are chosen for compulsory military service.
Today, Sweden can mobilize around 66,000 uniformed personnel.
Becoming battle ready
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has abruptly reawakened Europe to the necessity of maintaining sizable, battle-ready armies. European intelligence officials say Russia anticipates a conflict with NATO within the next decade, and aims to raise a standing army of 1.5 million by the end of 2026. Russia’s military superiority over Ukraine will continue to grow, “unless Western countries quickly step up,” one intelligence official said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed warnings of a potential Russian attack on NATO members as “complete nonsense.” In early 2022, the Kremlin used similar language to ridicule American warnings that Russia planned to invade Ukraine.
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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that Europe should prepare for possible war with Russia by the end of the decade. He also has called Germany’s abolition of conscription in 2011 a mistake, adding earlier this month that it should be reintroduced.
Comprehensive conscription was common throughout Europe in the 19th century when countries such as France and Germany manned their armed forces mostly with men from lower classes; Russia often employed a coercive version. During the American Civil War, both sides had drafts, but the U.S. only reintroduced it, along with Britain, during the two World Wars. After the Cold War, most countries abandoned the practice.
Number of forces
Active armed forces
Estimated reservists
300,000
NATO members
100,000
1,500,000
FINLAND
1,100,000
NORWAY
RUSSIA
U.K.
North Sea
BELARUS
POLAND
GERMANY
UKRAINE
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
FRANCE
ROMANIA
Black Sea
ITALY
SPAIN
TURKEY
GREECE
Mediterreanean Sea
Note: Iceland is a NATO member but maintains only a coast guard service. NATO members U.S. and Canada not shown.
Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies
Emma Brown/THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
But Sweden, apart from a brief gap during the 2010s, has relied on conscription for more than a century to populate its army. This year, out of about 100,000 young Swedes who had to enlist, just 6,200 made the cut for conscription, an annual increase of slightly more than 10%. The country aims to reach 8,000 conscripts next year, and 10,000 soon after that.
Selection is based on physical and mental fitness, IQ tests and motivation to serve. Health issues such as allergies, asthma or eczema can rule recruits out.
Forsberg did so well on her tests that the army picked her to train for the highly-skilled role of artillery observer for a company of Combat Vehicle 90s in the South Scanian Regiment.
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She began in March, an hour before the blue NATO flag with its white compass was hoisted on the base in Revingehed, marking the country’s accession to the alliance.
Not everyone who meets the military’s requirements wants to serve, and the armed forces have traditionally weeded out such people, to ensure that its soldiers are not just skilled, but also highly motivated. But to further increase its intake, the military might start insisting more of them join up, Swedish officials say. Evading the draft is punishable by a fine or up to a year in prison.
From left, conscripts Elin Forsberg and Emma Jonsson are 19 years old and Ida Carlsson is 20.
Long wars
While Western nations don’t have to match Russia soldier for soldier, the brutal war of attrition in Ukraine has shown that mass armies still matter, particularly in yearslong wars, said Jan Joel Andersson, senior analyst and expert on rearmament at the European Union Institute for Security Studies.
“NATO has far too few trained and equipped coherent units, or force packages, to fight a major war,” he said.
During a recent nine-day military exercise involving 1,000 soldiers and 200 officers, the South Scanian Regiment trained conscripts in Leopard battle tanks and Combat Vehicle 90s, both used by other European militaries, one of several ways Sweden is dovetailing with fellow NATO member states.
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From a hill overlooking the training area’s rolling fields, a group of engineers from the Swedish defense contractor Saab guided a Martlet MI-2 drone above the canopy of a forest, shooting lasers at a CV90 below. The soldiers returned laser fire, hitting the drone, which high-tailed to the hill, lights blinking. Re-creating Ukrainian battlefield conditions, the scenario was meant to give conscripts a taste of modern warfare, where enemy attacks come by land and from the sky.
The U.S. reintroduced compulsory conscription during the two World Wars. Men in New York City registering for the draft in 1917. PHOTO: LIBRARY OF CONGRESS, PRINTS & PHOTOGRAPHS DIVISION
Shrunken forces
After the Cold War, European nations cut their forces to the bone and replaced large conscription armies with smaller professional forces. Aging populations and expensive social welfare states meant that manning even small armies became difficult.
At the same time, focus shifted from territorial defense to new threats such as terrorism, and support for international missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, which along with advances in weapons technology lessened the need for mass armies.
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From 1990 to 2015, Germany—enlarged by reunification—shrank its combat battalion numbers from 215 to 34, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. In the same period, other European nations followed suit. Italy’s battalion numbers fell by 67% and France’s dropped by almost as much. British battalions were cut by almost half.
The U.S. struggles, too. In 2022, the U.S. Army had its toughest recruiting year since the advent of the all self-enlisted military in 1973, missing its recruitment goal by 25%. After lowering its target from 65,000 to 55,000 recruits, the Army is optimistic about meeting the mark this year. The Navy, however, anticipates a shortfall of about 6,700 on its ambition to recruit 40,000 sailors, the second year in a row that it will undershoot.
Potential Swedish conscripts must undergo psychological and physical testing.
Large-scale demilitarization
When the Berlin Wall fell, Sweden dismantled huge parts of its military infrastructure and reduced its troop strength by more than 90% from its peak in the 1960s. The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces sounded the alarm in 2013, saying the country would only be able to defend itself against an armed aggressor for a week.
Today, Sweden can mobilize around 66,000 uniformed personnel, including some 12,000 reserves and over 20,000 home guards, compared with 850,000 men and women during the height of the Cold War in the 1960s. The aim is to increase the number of active forces to more than 100,000 by 2030.
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“Sweden has gone from being a huge organization in the 1980s with a regiment in every town and city, to an anorexic organization in the mid 2000s,” said Johan Österberg, expert on military conscription with the Swedish Defence University. Rebuilding a military takes more than recruits, and even with sufficient numbers, “we don’t have buildings for them to sleep in,” he said.
Since 2017, about 100,000 Swedes each year must fill out an online questionnaire for the armed forces from which about 20% are selected to undergo psychological and physical testing. Around one-third of them are picked as conscripts.
A military exercise in Revingehed, Sweden.
Sweden has proved so successful at nurturing military talent that former conscripts are headhunted by the civil service and prized by tech companies.
In high school, “I dreamed about doing conscription,” said Ida Carlsson, who arrived at the South Scanian Regiment in March and was selected to become its first female reconnaissance platoon commander in 13 years. “I was very impatient.”
Norway has a similar conscription model to Sweden. Of about 60,000 young Norwegians, the armed forces each year select about 40% for tests and pick about 10,000 to serve. The Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany and Denmark also are looking at introducing or updating their conscription programs.
Because Swedish military service attracts the best in class of any generation, civilian employers value former conscripts. After 14 months of military service as a Persian interpreter, Anders Fridén completed a tour to Afghanistan and went straight into a job at the Swedish Embassy in Tehran. The foreign service explicitly advertised for applicants who had done military service, Fridén said.
Since then, he has worked as a management consultant in the U.S., and is now at a tech company in Zurich. The 35-year-old said all his employers had valued the skills his military service had taught him.
“I think there is a recognition in society that this is a useful thing to do,” he said.
Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at sune.rasmussen@wsj.com
7
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Crypto PACs
« on: Today at 10:45:40 AM »The Crypto Industry Is Trying to Elect Political Allies. The Stakes Couldn’t Be Higher.
Coinbase, Kraken and others are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown
ALEXANDRA CITRIN-SAFADI/WSJ; ISTOCK
By Caitlin Ostroff and Vicky Ge Huang
May 21, 2024 8:00 am ET
Crypto companies are fighting for survival after a regulatory crackdown. Their latest strategy: spending big on this year’s elections.
The industry has amassed a formidable war chest and is working to elect politicians it sees as allies and defeat those who are critical. A trio of super political-action committees has together raised more than $85 million, one of the largest amounts among PACs engaged in the 2024 elections.
Fairshake, along with two affiliated super PACs, raised the funds from an industry A-list, including crypto exchange Coinbase COIN 1.18%increase; green up pointing triangle Global and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest. The push is being powered by a surge in crypto prices.
“This is the first time we’ve really had all the pieces in place,” said Kristin Smith, chief executive of the Blockchain Association, an industry group.
Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association. PHOTO: ERIC LEE/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Wealthy investors and big companies have long used campaign donations and lobbyists to win influence in Washington. What sets the crypto industry’s push apart this year is that its ability to keep operating in the U.S. is at stake. With regulators filing civil lawsuits alleging that the industry is running afoul of securities laws and prosecutors unsealing criminal indictments, some companies have been looking overseas for growth or relocating entirely.
Earlier this month, former President Donald Trump was asked what he would do if re-elected to stop crypto companies from leaving the U.S.
“If we are going to embrace it, then we have to let them be here,” Trump said in support of the industry at Mar-a-Lago, his social club and part-time residence in Florida.
Fairshake hasn’t yet weighed in on the presidential election.
Previous attempts by crypto advocates to influence elections haven’t been as well-funded. In 2022, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried contributed to a PAC that ultimately raised $12 million. A federal judge sentenced Bankman-Fried to a quarter-century in prison on several counts of fraud earlier this year.
This cycle is different. The industry has banded together after a string of lawsuits from the Securities and Exchange Commission. Crypto firms have brought on more lobbyists, working to convince lawmakers that Bankman-Fried’s FTX isn’t indicative of the industry.
Fairshake, launched late last year, has been leading the efforts. The group brings together the major players in crypto, including the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Financial.
The efforts so far have focused on Congress. The industry is supporting legislation that would regulate issuers of stablecoins, or dollar-pegged cryptocurrencies, which make it easier to trade in and out of the market. The legislation would set rules for issuers, including requiring that tokens are completely backed by reserves.
Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase Global, spoke at a Stand With Crypto rally in March. PHOTO: MARK ABRAMSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Fairshake built its war chest through both cash and cryptocurrency donations. Phil Potter, the former chief strategy officer at crypto exchange Bitfinex, donated 33 bitcoins to the PAC last summer, equivalent to about $1 million. Those tokens were sold for cash, a Fairshake spokesman said.
To date, Fairshake said it has spent $25 million in the current election cycle. Earlier this year, it unleashed its biggest spending spree to date, aimed at defeating Katie Porter, a California congresswoman who launched a Senate bid. The group deployed $10 million on ads against Porter, a beloved figure among many liberals and a critic of how much energy consumption bitcoin requires.
The ads by Fairshake focused on topics that resonate with voters more widely, claiming Porter took cash from “big banks, big pharma and big oil,” not on Porter’s crypto stance. Porter later lost the primary.
Porter said that Fairshake isn’t engaging in genuine dialogue with candidates, and that the group is just trying to scare elected leaders into accepting their agenda.
It is unclear to what degree Fairshake’s efforts affected the outcome of the race. But the crypto industry is increasingly open about its desire to influence campaigns.
Stand With Crypto, a nonprofit spun off from Coinbase, recently announced the creation of its affiliated PAC. It also grades various politicians. President Biden, whose administration has waged a crackdown on crypto, got an “F.”
Meanwhile, presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. won better marks after calling crypto a “bulwark against government and corporate expansion” at a conference last year. His grade from the group: an “A.”
9
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: Today at 10:26:18 AM »
Quite the tale!
And yes I sometimes forget how annoying many non-lawyers find being subjected to Socratic lines of questioning whereas for me it is simply a search for getting to definition of terms and clarity in what is being asserted.
In addition to my various misadventures in interaction with law enforcement (nowhere near those of your brother!) I regularly work with law enforcement during which I am exposed quite a bit to what the world looks like from an LEO perspective.
I do not deny the potency of your argument, but in equal measure as a general principle I find it quite implausible to suggest that police need to be as subject to lawsuits as anyone just walking around. I could be mistaken, but it seems like that is where you are or are heading.
It's not a justice system, it is a legal system.
Even when one "wins" litigation is a significant emotional event with high costs in emotion, time, energy, and money. The plaintiff gets his lawyer with a contingency agreement, but someone must pay for the defendant's representation.
And yes I sometimes forget how annoying many non-lawyers find being subjected to Socratic lines of questioning whereas for me it is simply a search for getting to definition of terms and clarity in what is being asserted.
In addition to my various misadventures in interaction with law enforcement (nowhere near those of your brother!) I regularly work with law enforcement during which I am exposed quite a bit to what the world looks like from an LEO perspective.
I do not deny the potency of your argument, but in equal measure as a general principle I find it quite implausible to suggest that police need to be as subject to lawsuits as anyone just walking around. I could be mistaken, but it seems like that is where you are or are heading.
It's not a justice system, it is a legal system.
Even when one "wins" litigation is a significant emotional event with high costs in emotion, time, energy, and money. The plaintiff gets his lawyer with a contingency agreement, but someone must pay for the defendant's representation.
10
Politics & Religion / Re: Argentina Milei
« on: Today at 10:14:22 AM »
A good and bright friend recently sent me some clippings, a few of which were from The Economist. I used to read it back in the 70s and 80s, but the bias you describe oozes from its all-knowing aura of condescension.
11
Politics & Religion / GPF: The rift between Iran and Syria
« on: Today at 10:10:48 AM »
May 21, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF
The Rift Between Iran and Syria
There is a desire shared by many to get Tehran out of Damascus.
By: Hilal Khashan
Syrian President Bashar Assad has reason to distance himself from his erstwhile ally Iran. It’s true that Iran helped stabilize the government in Damascus and was instrumental in putting down a rebel uprising, but its continued presence on Syrian territory is a threat to Assad – not least because it invites occasional strikes from Israel. Assad sees Israeli pressure as an opportunity to get rid of Iran for good, and to that end he has signaled an interest in meeting with the United States, which sees ousting Iran as a necessary step in rehabilitating the Syrian regime. Given the escalation between Iran and Israel, it is unlikely that Assad would have made such signals if he were not sincere in his desire to draw closer to the U.S. and further from Iran.
A Worn-Out Welcome
Although Iran still has significant influence in Damascus, Assad's government is no puppet state. Like all Syrian rulers before him, Assad wants political autonomy, giving priority to the preservation of his regime. He admits that Iran and Hezbollah helped his government survive, but he had hoped they would withdraw after defeating the rebels. Instead, Iran has intensified its military and intelligence presence without Assad's consent and against his plans to retake parts of the country controlled by radical Islamic movements. Iran's strategic project is to consolidate its presence in Syria regardless of who occupies the presidency. After taking control of so much Syrian territory, Assad no longer needs Iran, and he has no problem getting rid of it. Assad understands that Iran's presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria's reconstruction, and their absence will allow Tehran to retrieve the vast resources that it expended to shore up the regime. Assad knows that Iran is ready to abandon him and work with his successor if it reaches an agreement with Washington to achieve its ambitions in the Middle East.
In truth, Syrian-Iranian relations have been deteriorating for some time. Trust and common purpose have been replaced by disagreements and suspicion, especially over Iran’s propensity to dictate terms of Syrian policy concerning the Gulf Cooperation Council. Then there is the simple matter of resentment. Even before Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel, the Syrian theater was responsible for a significant amount of Iranian attrition. Hezbollah lost some of its most able commanders in Syria – in part to rebels, in part to Israel, and in part to Syrian forces themselves, with whom they repeatedly clashed over suspicious deals with the president’s brother, proceeds from illicit smuggling and general distrust. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who appreciated what Iran did for their country, the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to deteriorate.
Arab states, and particularly Arab Gulf states, also want to see Iran leave Syria. They have even made demands to that end, and given that they will be the ones to finance Syria's reconstruction, it’s not a demand Assad can ignore. Over the past year, Damascus has thus resumed diplomatic relations with several Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and regained its seat in the Arab League. Assad also participated in the Arab summit in Jeddah for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011. Notably, Assad exchanged congratulatory messages with many Arab heads of state on the advent of Ramadan, while Syrian and Iranian media were unusually quiet about similar exchanges between Assad and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
Iran suspects that the Syrian government is ready to make a deal with the West. After the Israeli airstrike that destroyed its consulate, Iran decided to move the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the suburbs of Damascus to areas near Lebanon – a move made out of concern that Assad was not interested in ensuring the safety of Iranian officers. Over the past year, Iranian officials have visited Syria more than ever because no Syrian personnel reporting directly to Tehran remain in positions of influence. These structural changes confirm that Assad began moving long ago to eliminate Iranian influence gradually.
In September 2020, for example, Assad moved to expel Arab fighters from the National Defense Forces, an Iranian-controlled group of militias formed in 2013 that included fighters from Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries. Despite Iranian penetration into the Syrian army, Assad has recently worked to limit Tehran's influence, especially regarding its use of militias to create parallel security structures not affiliated with his regime. As a first step, Assad authorized military intelligence to deal directly with Iranian-backed militias, Hezbollah and the notorious auxiliary forces. Assad wanted to organize combat forces on the ground under the supervision of military intelligence to limit Iran's control.
The Politics of Distrust
The rapport of the past years between Damascus and Tehran has disappeared and been overshadowed by mounting disagreements and suspicion, especially with Iran's increasing pressure on the Syrian government out of its desire to impose restrictions on Assad's regime to prevent it from engaging the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Even before Hezbollah's decision to open a secondary front against Israel last October, Hezbollah was suffering from a shortage of well-trained field commanders. Those of them who received advanced training from the IRGC are no longer around, systematically eliminated by the rebels or members of other regime militias. Hezbollah lost in Syria its most able commanders, who gained great military experience during its wars with Israel. However, its involvement in the war mafias and suspicious deals with the president's brother eliminated most of these officers. The lack of trust between the Syrian regime and its Hezbollah-led Shiite allies caused violent confrontations between them due to recurring disputes over the sharing of drug smuggling proceeds. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who cooperated with Iran, the strength of the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to fade.
Russia, another Syrian ally, is on board with ousting a potential competitor like Iran too. Maher Assad, the commander of the Fourth Division, which is the strongest in the regime's army and whose mission is to protect Damascus, deliberately got rid of Hezbollah fighters in collaboration with a certain Russian unit that monitored the movements of Hezbollah's personnel and informed the Fourth Division of their whereabouts. Sometimes, the Fourth Division provided the rebel forces with classified information about Hezbollah's commanders to ambush them.
Iran is concerned that Russia, which intervened on Assad's side with decisive air power in 2015, may compete with it for postwar reconstruction contracts. These concerns escalated in 2016, when Damascus agreed to give Russia priority in reconstruction contracts, and in 2019, when Assad granted Russia exclusive rights to operate Syria's hydrocarbon fields. Recent bilateral agreements between Syria and Russia have further heightened Iran's concerns about its interests in postwar Syria. Assad’s extending such privilege to Moscow has alarmed Tehran, which believes, given its financial and economic contributions to Damascus and direct participation in the war, that it deserves commensurate compensation without competing with Moscow. For Assad, Moscow's influence counters Tehran's desire to make Syria a client state. In the long term, Iran poses a threat to Russia's military and political intentions in Syria. While Moscow prefers Syria to be a secular, federal state capable of maintaining its coastal military bases, Tehran is interested in expanding its regional influence through a fragmented and sectarian Syria.
Regardless of Assad's preference to get rid of Iran's influence, replacing it with Russia might not be more appealing since Arab countries that worked with Soviet leaders in the 1950s and 1960s had difficulty communicating with them or getting them to honor mutual agreements. Even before the 2011 Syrian uprising, Iran was actively laying the ground for permanently positioning itself in the country. Even though Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been working on rehabilitating Assad's regime in the Arab region, he still has doubts about them. In a speech delivered in 2006, Assad described the GCC rulers as "half men," viewing them as "indentured slaves" of the United States.
It’s unclear how the U.S., for its part, feels about a possible rapprochement with Syria. It would relish any opportunity to isolate Iran, but it is also leading the charge in opposing normalization between Syria and the Arab world. Still, the war in Gaza has accentuated some of the differences between Iran and Syria such that Damascus believes there is now an opportunity to make its move.
Syria is an improbable country, severely divided along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines. In the 1950s, it was an arena for regional power competition. Bashar’s father, Hafez Assad, used excessive repression to control and transform it into a modest regional power. The Assads are minority rulers, and many see Bashar as paranoid and conspiracist. Even so, Bashar allowed Iranian influence in the country after he pulled out the Syrian army from Lebanon in 2005. Despite the rift between the Assad regime and Iran, the odds are that postwar Syria will reemerge into a weak state dominated by other countries, including Iran, which will be one of several states meddling in its domestic affairs.
We value your though
View On Website
Open as PDF
The Rift Between Iran and Syria
There is a desire shared by many to get Tehran out of Damascus.
By: Hilal Khashan
Syrian President Bashar Assad has reason to distance himself from his erstwhile ally Iran. It’s true that Iran helped stabilize the government in Damascus and was instrumental in putting down a rebel uprising, but its continued presence on Syrian territory is a threat to Assad – not least because it invites occasional strikes from Israel. Assad sees Israeli pressure as an opportunity to get rid of Iran for good, and to that end he has signaled an interest in meeting with the United States, which sees ousting Iran as a necessary step in rehabilitating the Syrian regime. Given the escalation between Iran and Israel, it is unlikely that Assad would have made such signals if he were not sincere in his desire to draw closer to the U.S. and further from Iran.
A Worn-Out Welcome
Although Iran still has significant influence in Damascus, Assad's government is no puppet state. Like all Syrian rulers before him, Assad wants political autonomy, giving priority to the preservation of his regime. He admits that Iran and Hezbollah helped his government survive, but he had hoped they would withdraw after defeating the rebels. Instead, Iran has intensified its military and intelligence presence without Assad's consent and against his plans to retake parts of the country controlled by radical Islamic movements. Iran's strategic project is to consolidate its presence in Syria regardless of who occupies the presidency. After taking control of so much Syrian territory, Assad no longer needs Iran, and he has no problem getting rid of it. Assad understands that Iran's presence will discourage Western countries from contributing to Syria's reconstruction, and their absence will allow Tehran to retrieve the vast resources that it expended to shore up the regime. Assad knows that Iran is ready to abandon him and work with his successor if it reaches an agreement with Washington to achieve its ambitions in the Middle East.
In truth, Syrian-Iranian relations have been deteriorating for some time. Trust and common purpose have been replaced by disagreements and suspicion, especially over Iran’s propensity to dictate terms of Syrian policy concerning the Gulf Cooperation Council. Then there is the simple matter of resentment. Even before Hezbollah opened a new front against Israel, the Syrian theater was responsible for a significant amount of Iranian attrition. Hezbollah lost some of its most able commanders in Syria – in part to rebels, in part to Israel, and in part to Syrian forces themselves, with whom they repeatedly clashed over suspicious deals with the president’s brother, proceeds from illicit smuggling and general distrust. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who appreciated what Iran did for their country, the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to deteriorate.
Arab states, and particularly Arab Gulf states, also want to see Iran leave Syria. They have even made demands to that end, and given that they will be the ones to finance Syria's reconstruction, it’s not a demand Assad can ignore. Over the past year, Damascus has thus resumed diplomatic relations with several Arab countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and regained its seat in the Arab League. Assad also participated in the Arab summit in Jeddah for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in 2011. Notably, Assad exchanged congratulatory messages with many Arab heads of state on the advent of Ramadan, while Syrian and Iranian media were unusually quiet about similar exchanges between Assad and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.
Iran suspects that the Syrian government is ready to make a deal with the West. After the Israeli airstrike that destroyed its consulate, Iran decided to move the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the suburbs of Damascus to areas near Lebanon – a move made out of concern that Assad was not interested in ensuring the safety of Iranian officers. Over the past year, Iranian officials have visited Syria more than ever because no Syrian personnel reporting directly to Tehran remain in positions of influence. These structural changes confirm that Assad began moving long ago to eliminate Iranian influence gradually.
In September 2020, for example, Assad moved to expel Arab fighters from the National Defense Forces, an Iranian-controlled group of militias formed in 2013 that included fighters from Egypt, Tunisia and other Arab countries. Despite Iranian penetration into the Syrian army, Assad has recently worked to limit Tehran's influence, especially regarding its use of militias to create parallel security structures not affiliated with his regime. As a first step, Assad authorized military intelligence to deal directly with Iranian-backed militias, Hezbollah and the notorious auxiliary forces. Assad wanted to organize combat forces on the ground under the supervision of military intelligence to limit Iran's control.
The Politics of Distrust
The rapport of the past years between Damascus and Tehran has disappeared and been overshadowed by mounting disagreements and suspicion, especially with Iran's increasing pressure on the Syrian government out of its desire to impose restrictions on Assad's regime to prevent it from engaging the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Even before Hezbollah's decision to open a secondary front against Israel last October, Hezbollah was suffering from a shortage of well-trained field commanders. Those of them who received advanced training from the IRGC are no longer around, systematically eliminated by the rebels or members of other regime militias. Hezbollah lost in Syria its most able commanders, who gained great military experience during its wars with Israel. However, its involvement in the war mafias and suspicious deals with the president's brother eliminated most of these officers. The lack of trust between the Syrian regime and its Hezbollah-led Shiite allies caused violent confrontations between them due to recurring disputes over the sharing of drug smuggling proceeds. With Israel's liquidation of many senior Iranian officers who fought in defense of the Syrian regime and Assad's dismissal of ranking Syrian security and military personnel who cooperated with Iran, the strength of the Syrian-Iranian relationship began to fade.
Russia, another Syrian ally, is on board with ousting a potential competitor like Iran too. Maher Assad, the commander of the Fourth Division, which is the strongest in the regime's army and whose mission is to protect Damascus, deliberately got rid of Hezbollah fighters in collaboration with a certain Russian unit that monitored the movements of Hezbollah's personnel and informed the Fourth Division of their whereabouts. Sometimes, the Fourth Division provided the rebel forces with classified information about Hezbollah's commanders to ambush them.
Iran is concerned that Russia, which intervened on Assad's side with decisive air power in 2015, may compete with it for postwar reconstruction contracts. These concerns escalated in 2016, when Damascus agreed to give Russia priority in reconstruction contracts, and in 2019, when Assad granted Russia exclusive rights to operate Syria's hydrocarbon fields. Recent bilateral agreements between Syria and Russia have further heightened Iran's concerns about its interests in postwar Syria. Assad’s extending such privilege to Moscow has alarmed Tehran, which believes, given its financial and economic contributions to Damascus and direct participation in the war, that it deserves commensurate compensation without competing with Moscow. For Assad, Moscow's influence counters Tehran's desire to make Syria a client state. In the long term, Iran poses a threat to Russia's military and political intentions in Syria. While Moscow prefers Syria to be a secular, federal state capable of maintaining its coastal military bases, Tehran is interested in expanding its regional influence through a fragmented and sectarian Syria.
Regardless of Assad's preference to get rid of Iran's influence, replacing it with Russia might not be more appealing since Arab countries that worked with Soviet leaders in the 1950s and 1960s had difficulty communicating with them or getting them to honor mutual agreements. Even before the 2011 Syrian uprising, Iran was actively laying the ground for permanently positioning itself in the country. Even though Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been working on rehabilitating Assad's regime in the Arab region, he still has doubts about them. In a speech delivered in 2006, Assad described the GCC rulers as "half men," viewing them as "indentured slaves" of the United States.
It’s unclear how the U.S., for its part, feels about a possible rapprochement with Syria. It would relish any opportunity to isolate Iran, but it is also leading the charge in opposing normalization between Syria and the Arab world. Still, the war in Gaza has accentuated some of the differences between Iran and Syria such that Damascus believes there is now an opportunity to make its move.
Syria is an improbable country, severely divided along sectarian, ethnic and regional lines. In the 1950s, it was an arena for regional power competition. Bashar’s father, Hafez Assad, used excessive repression to control and transform it into a modest regional power. The Assads are minority rulers, and many see Bashar as paranoid and conspiracist. Even so, Bashar allowed Iranian influence in the country after he pulled out the Syrian army from Lebanon in 2005. Despite the rift between the Assad regime and Iran, the odds are that postwar Syria will reemerge into a weak state dominated by other countries, including Iran, which will be one of several states meddling in its domestic affairs.
We value your though
12
Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« on: May 20, 2024, 03:58:03 PM »
Twitter is not posting for me, but I think myself sufficiently informed as to the point to heartily agree. Witness e.g. what they have done to John Eastman.
13
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 20, 2024, 03:56:16 PM »I draw your attention to this:
"Your passion on this issues seems to not notice the word "qualified"-- so far neither of us have engaged on the parameters of that qualification."
In other words, I am not holding myself out as better than you.
I do not propose a definitive answer precisely because IMHO one is not possible.
15
Politics & Religion / WSJ on the Mexican Election
« on: May 20, 2024, 07:55:19 AM »The Election Stakes in Mexico
The big question: Will the ruling Morena party get a large enough legislative majority to rewrite the constitution?
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
May 19, 2024 4:57 pm ET
Mexicans vote to elect a new President on June 2, not that you’d know it from the lack of American media coverage of our southern neighbor. But the stakes are high, and the biggest question is whether the ruling Morena party of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will be able to move closer to his vision of a one-party state.
AMLO, as the President is known, is term limited and won’t be on the ballot. But his handpicked Morena successor, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, is leading in the polls and pledges to continue his agenda of leftwing nationalist economics and eliminating constitutional checks and balances.
Opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez is a former National Action Party (PAN) senator. She’s running on an ideologically diverse coalition ticket that includes the leftwing Party of the Democratic Revolution, the centrist PRI and the center-right PAN. The parties have united in concern about a Sheinbaum presidency that could have AMLO pulling the political strings behind the throne.
Entrepreneurship, business competition, strong property rights and open markets are Gálvez campaign themes that set her apart from Ms. Sheinbaum and AMLO. Ms. Gálvez wants Mexico to live up to its free-trade commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement and insists the U.S. do the same. On a visit to the Journal in February, she said that as president she would seek closer cooperation with the U.S. on economic and security matters. Ms. Gálvez’s Mexico would be an ally of the West.
This would break with Mr. López Obrador’s foreign policy. He’s been using migration as a bargaining chip with the Biden Administration to ward off U.S. action under USMCA to force Mexico to stop discriminating against foreign energy investors.
AMLO’s Mexico is an ally of Venezuela and Cuba and home to large numbers of Russian intelligence agents, according to U.S. Northern Command in 2022. He claims to follow a policy of not intervening in other countries, but three of his ambassadors have been declared persona non grata for meddling in support of the left in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador.
Cartel violence and extortion have long scarred Mexico, but they have spiked under AMLO. Mexico isn’t a failed state, at least not yet, but narcos now control large swaths of the country. The AMLO government has used financial investigations and confidential tax records against political adversaries. All of this has undermined the rule of law.
One irony is that AMLO is popular because Mexico has benefited from freer trade and the market reforms of his predecessors. Investment has flowed in as manufacturers seek to set up plants to serve the huge North American market. The Mexican peso has strengthened to nearly 17 to the U.S. dollar from more than 20 in 2018. Real wages are up and job creation is robust.
But AMLO’s policies put this economic progress at risk. The government forecasts a fiscal deficit of 5.9% of GDP this year despite a growing economy. It hopes to cut the deficit in half by 2025 with spending cuts that could easily turn out to be unrealistic. Pro-growth policies aren’t part of the Morena agenda, which favors heavy government spending and national corporate monopolies.
Mr. López Obrador is hoping that Ms. Sheinbaum wins with a big enough margin to carry Morena to two-thirds majorities in both legislative chambers. That would clear the way to amend the constitution and reverse the 2014 opening of Mexico’s energy markets, erode the independence of the Supreme Court and electoral authorities, and eliminate independent regulators. Morena now has simple majorities in both chambers and AMLO has used them to gradually change the Supreme Court.
High voter turnout would help Ms. Gálvez, who is trailing in most polls by double digits. AMLO’s government is using its media allies to claim the election is already over. But sampling bias and the potential of a large hidden vote could still produce a surprise. The future of Mexican democracy may depend on maintaining a check on AMLO’s designs
17
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 20, 2024, 04:56:10 AM »
A bit of a personal attack saying "I have no problem etc".
I'm well aware that police sometimes act quite badly; indeed many years ago I was arrested and the officers lied on the stand but my attorney was able to put doubt as to their testimony in the judge's mind. As the only white member of a nine man band, I''ve been roused roughly by police etc.
Your passion on this issues seems to not notice the word "qualified"-- so far neither of us have engaged on the parameters of that qualification.
I'm well aware that police sometimes act quite badly; indeed many years ago I was arrested and the officers lied on the stand but my attorney was able to put doubt as to their testimony in the judge's mind. As the only white member of a nine man band, I''ve been roused roughly by police etc.
Your passion on this issues seems to not notice the word "qualified"-- so far neither of us have engaged on the parameters of that qualification.
19
Politics & Religion / FO
« on: May 19, 2024, 02:19:23 PM »
1) CHINA CYBER HEARING: BLEAK PICTURE BEYOND BLINKING RED: During a House hearing on Chinese cyber threats, Oversight Cybersecurity Subcommittee Chair Nancy Mace (R-SC) said, “General Nakasone has stated that if a nation-state decided to attack our critical infrastructure, I would say that is above the threshold-level of war.”
Former Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center William Evanina said China’s recent actions, including the Volt Typhoon hacking campaign, strategic land purchases, maritime port threats, and fentanyl smuggling are “a bleak picture that is beyond blinking red.”
“The inability or unwillingness to look behind China, the curtain they provide, and deal with the existential threat is no longer an option for the Congress,” Evanina added.
Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal said Chinese hacking groups are more sophisticated and clandestine today, and their advanced tradecraft has made it incredibly difficult for organizations when Chinese hackers have compromised them.
Why It Matters: Chinese intrusion into U.S. networks, including defense and critical infrastructure, is very likely more extensive than publicly reported. The hearing witnesses echo previous statements from Biden officials that these intrusions by groups like Volt Typhoon are in preparation for a conflict, and the U.S. is not effectively deterring Chinese cyber activities. Cyber deterrence is an unanswered question at this point, and a gap remains between low-level cyber crime activities and cyber threats above the threshold of armed conflict. – R.C.
Former Director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center William Evanina said China’s recent actions, including the Volt Typhoon hacking campaign, strategic land purchases, maritime port threats, and fentanyl smuggling are “a bleak picture that is beyond blinking red.”
“The inability or unwillingness to look behind China, the curtain they provide, and deal with the existential threat is no longer an option for the Congress,” Evanina added.
Mandiant CTO Charles Carmakal said Chinese hacking groups are more sophisticated and clandestine today, and their advanced tradecraft has made it incredibly difficult for organizations when Chinese hackers have compromised them.
Why It Matters: Chinese intrusion into U.S. networks, including defense and critical infrastructure, is very likely more extensive than publicly reported. The hearing witnesses echo previous statements from Biden officials that these intrusions by groups like Volt Typhoon are in preparation for a conflict, and the U.S. is not effectively deterring Chinese cyber activities. Cyber deterrence is an unanswered question at this point, and a gap remains between low-level cyber crime activities and cyber threats above the threshold of armed conflict. – R.C.
20
Politics & Religion / Re: Michael Yon
« on: May 19, 2024, 01:54:53 PM »
There have been whiffs of it previously, (that super hot blonde ex 60 Minutes reporter who was running with him a year or so ago) but some post 10/7 comments have left no doubt.
There has also been his association with , , , , wuzhizname, the one with the "Sandy Hook was a hoax" schtick , , ,
There has also been his association with , , , , wuzhizname, the one with the "Sandy Hook was a hoax" schtick , , ,
21
Politics & Religion / More Guns, Less Butter
« on: May 19, 2024, 01:51:17 PM »
The ‘Uniparty’ Is Real—but It Isn’t What You Think
Democrats and Republicans aren’t overzealous about foreign intervention. They’re feckless about American leadership.
By Dalibor Rohac
May 19, 2024 3:43 pm ET
From Ralph Nader to Steve Bannon, self-styled populists and outsiders have disparaged Washington’s “uniparty.” When this critique turns to foreign policy, the uniparty is accused of groupthink and militarism—dragging the U.S. into unnecessary and endless wars while neglecting the concerns of regular Americans.
While the epithet is often overstated and used in bad faith, it contains a kernel of truth. Foreign-policy experts from both parties agree on a lot, and that consensus can lead to poor decisions. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as America’s geopolitical competition with China, expose a bipartisan problem of this sort that critics of U.S. foreign policy frequently miss.
Today’s uniparty isn’t defined by a zeal to export democracy and launch ill-advised wars against governments that don’t threaten us. Rather, it is defined, on both the Democratic and the Republican side, by a lack of initiative and an urge to do things on the cheap and halfheartedly, to manage crises instead of resolving them. It is also fundamentally dishonest, as it suggests that peace and security can be sustained without major sacrifices.
On Oct. 10, when it was perfectly clear that Israel could no longer tolerate living side by side with Hamas and that this terrorist organization would have to meet the same fate as ISIS, President Biden promised that he would “make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself and respond to this attack.” Today, when support for the Jewish state has become a political liability for Mr. Biden in Michigan, his support for Israel is wobbly at best.
Ukraine is a similar story. Ukrainians are fully aware that “for as long as it takes” means until the end of 2024, when a new supplemental appropriation bill will be necessary. And whatever assistance the Biden administration has provided has come with strings attached. The U.S. is denying important weapons systems to Kyiv or restricting its use of them.
The problem is bipartisan. As Israel divides Democrats, Ukraine divides Republicans. Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s manifesto for the next Republican administration, admits as much, offering only the faint hope “that next conservative President” will seize “a generational opportunity to bring resolution to the foreign policy tensions within the movement.”
The list goes on. Unlike in the early 19th century, when the U.S. successfully defeated the Barbary pirates and their sponsors, freedom of navigation hasn’t been restored to the Red Sea, as Houthi rebels continue to control what is normally one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Even on China, there are few signs that the sudden centrality of Beijing’s threat has been translated into effective action, or that it would be under a second Trump administration. As the China archhawk Elbridge Colby tweeted recently, “Americans are war-weary and more skeptical of military interventions. Taiwan matters a great deal to Americans. But it’s not existential and it’s remote to most.”
In short, as the world burns and new conflagrations loom, our uniparty pretends that business as usual is adequate—or, worse yet, that ignoring the world will somehow enable us to address problems at home. It is an illusion. If you’re concerned about the southern border, our asylum system being overrun, or about the fentanyl crisis, you have to care about the political stability and security of America’s neighbors to the south—a subject on which both political parties remain largely silent.
The U.S. needs to adjust to a more dangerous world. It is past time to prioritize hard power over other areas of government spending—in other words, more guns and less butter—and plug the holes left by decades of enjoying the “peace dividend.” Yet keeping the existing entitlement schemes intact even as they head for bankruptcy remains a central tenet of America’s uniparty—a rare point of domestic bipartisan consensus in a polarized time.
As the eras of World War II and the Cold War illustrate, the U.S. can lead the world. That requires political leadership capable of defeating the complacent, feckless, and shortsighted uniparty.
Mr. Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Democrats and Republicans aren’t overzealous about foreign intervention. They’re feckless about American leadership.
By Dalibor Rohac
May 19, 2024 3:43 pm ET
From Ralph Nader to Steve Bannon, self-styled populists and outsiders have disparaged Washington’s “uniparty.” When this critique turns to foreign policy, the uniparty is accused of groupthink and militarism—dragging the U.S. into unnecessary and endless wars while neglecting the concerns of regular Americans.
While the epithet is often overstated and used in bad faith, it contains a kernel of truth. Foreign-policy experts from both parties agree on a lot, and that consensus can lead to poor decisions. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as America’s geopolitical competition with China, expose a bipartisan problem of this sort that critics of U.S. foreign policy frequently miss.
Today’s uniparty isn’t defined by a zeal to export democracy and launch ill-advised wars against governments that don’t threaten us. Rather, it is defined, on both the Democratic and the Republican side, by a lack of initiative and an urge to do things on the cheap and halfheartedly, to manage crises instead of resolving them. It is also fundamentally dishonest, as it suggests that peace and security can be sustained without major sacrifices.
On Oct. 10, when it was perfectly clear that Israel could no longer tolerate living side by side with Hamas and that this terrorist organization would have to meet the same fate as ISIS, President Biden promised that he would “make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself and respond to this attack.” Today, when support for the Jewish state has become a political liability for Mr. Biden in Michigan, his support for Israel is wobbly at best.
Ukraine is a similar story. Ukrainians are fully aware that “for as long as it takes” means until the end of 2024, when a new supplemental appropriation bill will be necessary. And whatever assistance the Biden administration has provided has come with strings attached. The U.S. is denying important weapons systems to Kyiv or restricting its use of them.
The problem is bipartisan. As Israel divides Democrats, Ukraine divides Republicans. Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s manifesto for the next Republican administration, admits as much, offering only the faint hope “that next conservative President” will seize “a generational opportunity to bring resolution to the foreign policy tensions within the movement.”
The list goes on. Unlike in the early 19th century, when the U.S. successfully defeated the Barbary pirates and their sponsors, freedom of navigation hasn’t been restored to the Red Sea, as Houthi rebels continue to control what is normally one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Even on China, there are few signs that the sudden centrality of Beijing’s threat has been translated into effective action, or that it would be under a second Trump administration. As the China archhawk Elbridge Colby tweeted recently, “Americans are war-weary and more skeptical of military interventions. Taiwan matters a great deal to Americans. But it’s not existential and it’s remote to most.”
In short, as the world burns and new conflagrations loom, our uniparty pretends that business as usual is adequate—or, worse yet, that ignoring the world will somehow enable us to address problems at home. It is an illusion. If you’re concerned about the southern border, our asylum system being overrun, or about the fentanyl crisis, you have to care about the political stability and security of America’s neighbors to the south—a subject on which both political parties remain largely silent.
The U.S. needs to adjust to a more dangerous world. It is past time to prioritize hard power over other areas of government spending—in other words, more guns and less butter—and plug the holes left by decades of enjoying the “peace dividend.” Yet keeping the existing entitlement schemes intact even as they head for bankruptcy remains a central tenet of America’s uniparty—a rare point of domestic bipartisan consensus in a polarized time.
As the eras of World War II and the Cold War illustrate, the U.S. can lead the world. That requires political leadership capable of defeating the complacent, feckless, and shortsighted uniparty.
Mr. Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
23
Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: May 19, 2024, 06:08:36 AM »
BTC’s big new HODLer is … Wisconsin?!
After a week of lower volatility, crypto prices spiked on Wednesday as new U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures showed inflation easing slightly. One key index, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy costs, hit its lowest rate since April 2021.
As markets of all kinds got a boost, BTC climbed toward $65,000 and ETH approached $3,000.
Meanwhile, the BTC ETF category saw weekly inflows return for the first time in a month and futures markets continue to suggest a bullish path for BTC, with many traders betting on a new all-time high north of $75,000 by the end of June.
Here are three more crypto stories to know this week.
1. Wisconsin reveals $160 million crypto portfolio
The spot BTC ETFs that began trading in January were created in part to make crypto a more viable option for big-money institutional investors like pension funds.
According to a new SEC filing, that promise is already coming true. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board — which manages state-employee retirement funds among other assets — disclosed that as of the end of March, it held around $160 million in spot BTC ETFs (split between BlackRock’s and Grayscale’s funds).
Those weren’t the board’s only crypto-related investments. According to the Block, “shares of other cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Block, Cipher Mining, Cleanspark and MicroStrategy were also in the Board's portfolio.”
Follow the leader... According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, other big institutional investors are likely to follow in Wisconsin’s footsteps. “Normally you don't get these big fish institutions … for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity),” he noted, “but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds.”
After a week of lower volatility, crypto prices spiked on Wednesday as new U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures showed inflation easing slightly. One key index, “core inflation,” which removes food and energy costs, hit its lowest rate since April 2021.
As markets of all kinds got a boost, BTC climbed toward $65,000 and ETH approached $3,000.
Meanwhile, the BTC ETF category saw weekly inflows return for the first time in a month and futures markets continue to suggest a bullish path for BTC, with many traders betting on a new all-time high north of $75,000 by the end of June.
Here are three more crypto stories to know this week.
1. Wisconsin reveals $160 million crypto portfolio
The spot BTC ETFs that began trading in January were created in part to make crypto a more viable option for big-money institutional investors like pension funds.
According to a new SEC filing, that promise is already coming true. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board — which manages state-employee retirement funds among other assets — disclosed that as of the end of March, it held around $160 million in spot BTC ETFs (split between BlackRock’s and Grayscale’s funds).
Those weren’t the board’s only crypto-related investments. According to the Block, “shares of other cryptocurrency firms such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Block, Cipher Mining, Cleanspark and MicroStrategy were also in the Board's portfolio.”
Follow the leader... According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, other big institutional investors are likely to follow in Wisconsin’s footsteps. “Normally you don't get these big fish institutions … for a year or so (when the ETF gets more liquidity),” he noted, “but as we've seen these are no ordinary launches. Good sign, expect more, as institutions tend to move in herds.”
24
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Intelligence and Psychology, Artificial Intelligence
« on: May 19, 2024, 04:00:24 AM »
Well the latent wit in some of the Subject headings may confuse e.g. The Cognitive Dissonance of His Glibness for Baraq Obama 
25
Science, Culture, & Humanities / And subject to the jurisdiction thereof
« on: May 19, 2024, 03:57:46 AM »27
Politics & Religion / North Carolina Senate approves bill making it a crime to wear a mask in public
« on: May 18, 2024, 12:42:30 PM »29
Politics & Religion / Paul DeSisto
« on: May 18, 2024, 07:06:49 AM »
The charts will not print, but hopefully the commentary is worthy:
===============
Weekly Market Update May 17, 2024
Paul M. DeSisto, CFA
May 17, 2024
Fed Funds 5.25% - 5.5%, US Ten Year 4.422%, Oil $79.99
Inflation figures reported this week showed a very slight reduction in the inflation rate, which nonetheless further energized a May rally in stocks being led by Artificial Intelligence-oriented technology stocks. The April 3.4% CPI rate, down a tenth of a point from March, was enough to remove the threat of a hike in Fed Funds and increase the chance of a rate cut in September to 67%.
There is market adage, “Sell in May, and Go Away,” based on stocks’ historical lethargy as the summer begins and market participants go on vacation. While not foolproof, it has been true often enough to warrant attention. Stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves and could be due for a significant correction. One useful study is to compare the yield on stocks to that of bonds. A stock’s yield is simply the inverse of its price earnings ratio. According to FACTSET, as of May 10th the forward P/E of the S&P 500 is 20.4 times. A P/E of 20.4 gives an earnings yield of 4.9%. That is higher than the ten-year treasury yield’s 4.42%, the first time since the dot.com crash of 2000 that the earnings yield has topped the ten-year. An earnings yield higher than the bond yield is one sign of an overpriced market. It deserves mentioning that the 20.4 P/E is above the 5-year average (19.1) and above the 10-year average (17.
.
The run-up in stocks this month suggests a momentum-driven market. To measure momentum, market technicians may use the Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally the RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. The Dow Jones Industrial, Standard and Poor’s 500, and NASDAQ Composite are all pushing up against the 70 level. (Unsurprising, given last week’s Weekly Market Update that discussed the weakness of small cap stocks, the Russell 2000 is not so overbought.) The indices may go even higher for a while, but there will be a correction.
Despite the euphoria that came out of the inflation report, inflation has merely cooled. Prices are still rising, even if at a slower rate. Things cost more than they used to and will cost still more next year. It does not mean that things are getting better, just that they are getting worse more slowly. Higher prices have required Americans to spend more of their savings to maintain their lifestyle. The national savings rate has declined to 3.2%, the lowest in 17 years. The consumer seems to have been “tapped out,” with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to a six-month low on inflation and unemployment fears. With a stock market correction becoming more likely, and with short-term bonds offering real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) of 2%, it makes sense for even the most aggressive investor to maintain a portfolio of short-term fixed income investments within their accounts.
================
I would add that from a peak of 19 (which is not a super high number, upper 20s would be in my mental map) it is back down to 13. From 86 oil is now 79. After fading from 2400 to 2300, Gold is back above $2400.
Silver, which I had sort of laughed at through the years of silver ads on FOX, continues to move strongly up-- working from memory, silver meandered in the low to mid 20s, but now is over 31.
===============
Weekly Market Update May 17, 2024
Paul M. DeSisto, CFA
May 17, 2024
Fed Funds 5.25% - 5.5%, US Ten Year 4.422%, Oil $79.99
Inflation figures reported this week showed a very slight reduction in the inflation rate, which nonetheless further energized a May rally in stocks being led by Artificial Intelligence-oriented technology stocks. The April 3.4% CPI rate, down a tenth of a point from March, was enough to remove the threat of a hike in Fed Funds and increase the chance of a rate cut in September to 67%.
There is market adage, “Sell in May, and Go Away,” based on stocks’ historical lethargy as the summer begins and market participants go on vacation. While not foolproof, it has been true often enough to warrant attention. Stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves and could be due for a significant correction. One useful study is to compare the yield on stocks to that of bonds. A stock’s yield is simply the inverse of its price earnings ratio. According to FACTSET, as of May 10th the forward P/E of the S&P 500 is 20.4 times. A P/E of 20.4 gives an earnings yield of 4.9%. That is higher than the ten-year treasury yield’s 4.42%, the first time since the dot.com crash of 2000 that the earnings yield has topped the ten-year. An earnings yield higher than the bond yield is one sign of an overpriced market. It deserves mentioning that the 20.4 P/E is above the 5-year average (19.1) and above the 10-year average (17.
.The run-up in stocks this month suggests a momentum-driven market. To measure momentum, market technicians may use the Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between zero and 100. Traditionally the RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30. The Dow Jones Industrial, Standard and Poor’s 500, and NASDAQ Composite are all pushing up against the 70 level. (Unsurprising, given last week’s Weekly Market Update that discussed the weakness of small cap stocks, the Russell 2000 is not so overbought.) The indices may go even higher for a while, but there will be a correction.
Despite the euphoria that came out of the inflation report, inflation has merely cooled. Prices are still rising, even if at a slower rate. Things cost more than they used to and will cost still more next year. It does not mean that things are getting better, just that they are getting worse more slowly. Higher prices have required Americans to spend more of their savings to maintain their lifestyle. The national savings rate has declined to 3.2%, the lowest in 17 years. The consumer seems to have been “tapped out,” with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to a six-month low on inflation and unemployment fears. With a stock market correction becoming more likely, and with short-term bonds offering real yields (yields adjusted for inflation) of 2%, it makes sense for even the most aggressive investor to maintain a portfolio of short-term fixed income investments within their accounts.
================
I would add that from a peak of 19 (which is not a super high number, upper 20s would be in my mental map) it is back down to 13. From 86 oil is now 79. After fading from 2400 to 2300, Gold is back above $2400.
Silver, which I had sort of laughed at through the years of silver ads on FOX, continues to move strongly up-- working from memory, silver meandered in the low to mid 20s, but now is over 31.
30
Politics & Religion / Re: Subversion: Antifa-BLM, SJW warriors, gender warriors , Hamasholes, satanism
« on: May 17, 2024, 11:52:54 AM »
31
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 17, 2024, 11:49:28 AM »
Regarding paying for defense lawyers, we don't get to say the accused is guilty before he gets a trial and therefore the legal fees fall on him.
With regard to QI, as I understand it, the gist of QI theory is that by the nature of police work, an officer is abnormally likely to be accused by the people he is policing. If he has to worry about getting sued all the fg time, we will not have many people willing to do the work.
With regard to QI, as I understand it, the gist of QI theory is that by the nature of police work, an officer is abnormally likely to be accused by the people he is policing. If he has to worry about getting sued all the fg time, we will not have many people willing to do the work.
32
Politics & Religion / Re: Sex (as in Male and Female) Gender, Gay, Lesbian
« on: May 17, 2024, 11:42:26 AM »
They were seeking a preliminary injuction, yes?
34
Politics & Religion / Ohio
« on: May 16, 2024, 04:57:45 PM »
Read the small print. Serious barriers to real cleansing.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/ohio-orders-purge-of-ineligible-voters-from-state-voter-rolls-after-finding-137-non-citizens-registered-to-vote-5650040?utm_source=Goodevening&src_src=Goodevening&utm_campaign=gv-2024-05-16&src_cmp=gv-2024-05-16&utm_medium=email&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYvAqcwcVzc7PzLYPrHFRB710wA0AIj31kx5JTWZu9FddhEg4S8RP
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/ohio-orders-purge-of-ineligible-voters-from-state-voter-rolls-after-finding-137-non-citizens-registered-to-vote-5650040?utm_source=Goodevening&src_src=Goodevening&utm_campaign=gv-2024-05-16&src_cmp=gv-2024-05-16&utm_medium=email&est=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYvAqcwcVzc7PzLYPrHFRB710wA0AIj31kx5JTWZu9FddhEg4S8RP
35
Politics & Religion / Expeditionary Intelligence: Political Violence Mexico all time high for election
« on: May 16, 2024, 04:56:54 PM »The Americas
Brodie Kirkpatrick, Expeditionary Intelligence
Political Violence in Mexico at Historical High as Elections Draw Closer
As Mexico prepares for a general election next month, political violence has plagued the nation at all levels. Many candidates have been killed, injured, otherwise threatened, or withdrawn from their races.
Introduction
Throughout the month of May, multiple media outlets reported that violence in Mexico leading up to this June’s general election is the highest it has been in recent history. More than two dozen candidates for various offices have been killed leading up to the June 2 vote; hundreds have dropped out of races. Additionally, hundreds of others have asked the federal government for security details. The goal of armed groups is to install corrupted or coerced leaders in local offices so they can better exploit Mexican communities.
Once largely focused on shipping drugs to the United States, the cartels now also smuggle migrants, extort businesses, and win contracts for firms they control.
Cartels have focused most of their efforts on local politics in influential states vying to control things like municipal police, public works, and many other essential departments of state and local governments. This strategy makes controlling mayoral offices crucial, however, despite the large focus on local municipalities, candidates for governor and senate seats are also at high risk. Cartels have targeted candidates from all of Mexico’s major parties. In Maravatío, a municipality of 80,000 in the central state of Michoacan, three candidates for mayor have been killed; two from Morena, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador party, and one from the opposition National Action Party, or PAN. Carlos Palomeque, head of the PAN in Chiapas, says nearly two dozen mayoral candidates from the party have dropped out of their races. It used to be that the cartels bought off voters, he says. Now, “they force candidates from the race. It’s cheaper.”
López Obrador accuses the opposition and media of exaggerating the violence in states across Mexico to discredit his efforts against organized crime. Yet even López Obrador’s protégé, presidential front-runner Claudia Sheinbaum, was stopped by masked men last month in a region of the state controlled by the Sinaloa cartel. The men warned her to “remember the poor people” and waved her through their checkpoint.
Can President Lopez Obrador End Mexico's Drug War?
Despite AMLO’s claims of exaggeration, just in the past 45 days, front-running mayoral candidates in influential states such as Guanajuato, Chiapas, Puebla, and Tabasco have been killed by gunmen. The most notable of those killed was Carlos Narvaez Romero, a member of the Grupo Tabasco, a collective of politicians and influential Mexican business owners closely aligned with President AMLO such as Adán Augusto López, former Secretary of the Interior, Octavio Romero Oropeza, general director of Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), Javier May, Morena candidate to the governorship of said entity, as well as Rafael Marín Mollinedo, Mexico's ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO), who was also head of the National Customs Agency. Romero was slated to succeed the former head of customs who was killed in 2022.
Analyst Comment
While political violence is nothing new for Mexico, this election season has proven to be the most violent in recent history. Despite having high political violence, Mexico’s non-state actors vying for influence are not stoking the violence to eventually conduct a coup. Adversely, the cartels want control and to be able to operate behind the scenes with impunity without being thrust into the spotlight of the international stage. Traditionally, cartels have paid off, blackmailed, or coerced officials. However, the recent uptick in violence may signal a change in the modus operandi while also highlighting the lack of control the government has over the situation. To further cement this, cartels have consistently proven to the public that if they speak out against the violence they will likely be tracked, kidnapped, tortured, and/or killed without recourse from authorities as there are multiple accounts of this. Beyond the uptick in violence, the profile of the individuals murdered such as Carlos Romero who was slated to be the next head of customs for the entirety of Mexico has also raised much concern of whether an end to this violence is in sight or if this will be the normal for upcoming elections. Going into the June elections the possibility for violence remains extremely high and is likely to worsen.
36
Politics & Religion / Islam in Nigeria killing Christians
« on: May 16, 2024, 04:40:20 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hunting-of-nigerias-christians-massacre-mass-abduction-de2d7d37?mod=opinion_lead_pos11
"Some local leaders call the attacks genocide. That isn’t implausible, says Robert Destro, a former State Department official. “Massacres by themselves do not constitute genocide, but systematic attacks to get rid of people can be.” The attacks are doing exactly that, squandering blood, treasure and Africa’s rich ethnic heritage.
"The Biden administration’s response has bewildered experts. While attacks worsen, the State Department in 2021 removed Nigeria from its list of “countries of particular concern”—nations persecuting religious believers that can be subjected to sanctions and penalties."
"Some local leaders call the attacks genocide. That isn’t implausible, says Robert Destro, a former State Department official. “Massacres by themselves do not constitute genocide, but systematic attacks to get rid of people can be.” The attacks are doing exactly that, squandering blood, treasure and Africa’s rich ethnic heritage.
"The Biden administration’s response has bewildered experts. While attacks worsen, the State Department in 2021 removed Nigeria from its list of “countries of particular concern”—nations persecuting religious believers that can be subjected to sanctions and penalties."
37
Politics & Religion / In my neighborhood
« on: May 16, 2024, 12:50:59 PM »https://sandhillssentinel.com/board-of-elections.../
In my neighborhood:
"According to Howell, the mistake was an easy one to make. “The system is fairly complex; the machines, the paperwork, the processes, the technology that support it in order to safeguard the integrity of our elections is rather involved,” he explained.
"Director Towanna Dixon followed Howell to explain what, by her account, happened. According to Dixon, the issue stemmed from a mix-up of “media sticks,” otherwise known as flash drives, used to record and upload the vote totals. The results for Carthage were recorded on the drive labeled for Pinehurst B2 and vice versa. This mislabeling caused the data to be reported incorrectly."
The ease of this error is not reassuring. Imagine were bad faith to be involved!!!
39
Politics & Religion / Re: US Foreign Policy & Geopolitics
« on: May 16, 2024, 09:08:40 AM »
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Scylla-and-Charybdis
Some ancient history profs think this may be a mythic referall to the waters between Italy and Sicily. IIRC these played a key role in denying the Spartacus uprising a move to Sicily.
Some ancient history profs think this may be a mythic referall to the waters between Italy and Sicily. IIRC these played a key role in denying the Spartacus uprising a move to Sicily.
41
Politics & Religion / Re: 2024
« on: May 16, 2024, 06:49:35 AM »
AGREE!!!
Trump was an hubristic asshole in the first debate and set himself up for the mike cutoff demand now.
Trump was an hubristic asshole in the first debate and set himself up for the mike cutoff demand now.
44
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 16, 2024, 05:23:22 AM »
Nope, not arguing that at all AND my question remains 
45
Politics & Religion / RIP Stephen Browne
« on: May 16, 2024, 05:20:04 AM »
A Sad Howl:
I am grateful for a quality phone conversation with him in the hospice about a week before he passed. His spirit was strong.
As evinced on these pages and elsewhere, he was a good man with a fine, fine mind.
"The wood is consumed but the fire burns on."
I am grateful for a quality phone conversation with him in the hospice about a week before he passed. His spirit was strong.
As evinced on these pages and elsewhere, he was a good man with a fine, fine mind.
"The wood is consumed but the fire burns on."
47
Politics & Religion / Re: Law Enforcement
« on: May 15, 2024, 07:18:25 PM »
" qualified immunity does not attach to acts that are criminal, grossly negligent, our outside the bounds of department policy and academy training."
Not sure I am following. Forgive the smartassery, but guilt is established after a trial, yes? So, does the officer get his lawyer paid for or not?
Not sure I am following. Forgive the smartassery, but guilt is established after a trial, yes? So, does the officer get his lawyer paid for or not?
48
Politics & Religion / Re: The Russian conspiracy, Comey, Mueller, Durham, Mar a Lago and related matters
« on: May 15, 2024, 06:55:57 PM »
BBG brought up the possibility of a sweetheart deal for Cohen when he pled guilty in order to bootstrap the predicate for what we see now.
I mentioned that IIRC his lawyer was Lanny Davis, crony to the Clintons so just now I began digging a bit.
1)
https://forward.com/news/408703/5-things-to-know-about-lanny-davis-michael-cohens-jewish-lawyer/
2) CNN
12:06 p.m. ET, February 27, 2019
Cohen says his lawyer is representing him for free (for now)
Michael Cohen, responding to questions about who is paying his lawyer Lanny Davis, said he is working for free.
Rep. Jody Hice asked if liberal activist Tom Steyer is paying for Davis to represent Cohen.
"Not that I'm aware of," Cohen responded.
Here's how the rest of the exchange went down:
Hice: "Who is paying Lanny Davis?
Cohen: "At the moment, no one."
Hice: "He is doing all this work for nothing?"
Cohen: "Yes, sir, and I hope so."
Later, Rep. Jim Jordan asked if Cohen plans to pay Davis in the future.
"When I start to earn a living," Cohen responded.
Jordan said he has "never known a lawyer to wait three years to get paid."
3) Getting warmer:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/michael-cohen-sentencing/index.html
4) IIRC the campaign finance violation guilty plea was horseshit, and with Lanny Davis at his side smelled to me at the time as a way to lay a predicate for going after Trump in return for lenient sentencing and gratitude from the Clinton and Obama machines.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics/michael-cohen-plea-deal-talks/index.html
I mentioned that IIRC his lawyer was Lanny Davis, crony to the Clintons so just now I began digging a bit.
1)
https://forward.com/news/408703/5-things-to-know-about-lanny-davis-michael-cohens-jewish-lawyer/
2) CNN
12:06 p.m. ET, February 27, 2019
Cohen says his lawyer is representing him for free (for now)
Michael Cohen, responding to questions about who is paying his lawyer Lanny Davis, said he is working for free.
Rep. Jody Hice asked if liberal activist Tom Steyer is paying for Davis to represent Cohen.
"Not that I'm aware of," Cohen responded.
Here's how the rest of the exchange went down:
Hice: "Who is paying Lanny Davis?
Cohen: "At the moment, no one."
Hice: "He is doing all this work for nothing?"
Cohen: "Yes, sir, and I hope so."
Later, Rep. Jim Jordan asked if Cohen plans to pay Davis in the future.
"When I start to earn a living," Cohen responded.
Jordan said he has "never known a lawyer to wait three years to get paid."
3) Getting warmer:
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/michael-cohen-sentencing/index.html
4) IIRC the campaign finance violation guilty plea was horseshit, and with Lanny Davis at his side smelled to me at the time as a way to lay a predicate for going after Trump in return for lenient sentencing and gratitude from the Clinton and Obama machines.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/21/politics/michael-cohen-plea-deal-talks/index.html
49
Politics & Religion / Search systems other than Google
« on: May 15, 2024, 03:28:42 PM »
Google is so powerful that it "hides" other search systems from us. We just don't know the existence of most of them.
Meanwhile, there are still a huge number of excellent searchers in the world who specialize in books, science, other smart information.
Keep a list of sites you never heard of.
www.refseek.com - Academic Resource Search. More than a billion sources: encyclopedia, monographies, magazines.
www.worldcat.org - a search for the contents of 20 thousand worldwide libraries. Find out where lies the nearest rare book you need.
https://link.springer.com - access to more than 10 million scientific documents: books, articles, research protocols.
www.bioline.org.br is a library of scientific bioscience journals published in developing countries.
http://repec.org - volunteers from 102 countries have collected almost 4 million publications on economics and related science.
www.science.gov is an American state search engine on 2200+ scientific sites. More than 200 million articles are indexed.
www.base-search.net is one of the most powerful researches on academic studies texts. More than 100 million scientific documents, 70% of them are free.
Meanwhile, there are still a huge number of excellent searchers in the world who specialize in books, science, other smart information.
Keep a list of sites you never heard of.
www.refseek.com - Academic Resource Search. More than a billion sources: encyclopedia, monographies, magazines.
www.worldcat.org - a search for the contents of 20 thousand worldwide libraries. Find out where lies the nearest rare book you need.
https://link.springer.com - access to more than 10 million scientific documents: books, articles, research protocols.
www.bioline.org.br is a library of scientific bioscience journals published in developing countries.
http://repec.org - volunteers from 102 countries have collected almost 4 million publications on economics and related science.
www.science.gov is an American state search engine on 2200+ scientific sites. More than 200 million articles are indexed.
www.base-search.net is one of the most powerful researches on academic studies texts. More than 100 million scientific documents, 70% of them are free.
50
Politics & Religion / GPF: Brits to expand navy
« on: May 15, 2024, 03:15:05 PM »Sea power. The British Royal Navy is boosting its capabilities following recent operations in the Red Sea against Yemen’s Houthi rebels and in the Black Sea related to the Ukraine war. It will buy up to six new multirole support ships that can carry aircraft, vehicles, insertion craft and unmanned systems, U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said. In addition, its new Type 26 and 31 frigates will have the ability to attack land-based targets. In total, the Ministry of Defense plans to commission 28 new ships to beef up its fleet.