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Politics & Religion / Re: Politics by Lawfare, and the Law of War
« on: Today at 11:50:03 AM »
The jurors have not been sequestered.
6
Politics & Religion / WSJ: The upcoming election
« on: Today at 11:47:08 AM »Could Mexico’s Election Spring a Surprise?
AMLO’s ruling party is trying to demoralize supporters of the opposition candidate and convince them to stay home.
Mary Anastasia O’Grady
May 26, 2024 2:36 pm ET
The “Pink Tide” demonstrations that swept Mexico on May 19 weren’t a popular cry for socialism, as the name might imply. Quite the opposite. The hundreds of thousands who turned out in urban plazas across the nation were part of a nonpartisan movement fighting to preserve the independence of the National Electoral Institute. The INE, as it is known, referees political campaigns and elections. The Mexico City government estimated the crowd in the capital’s main square at 95,000.
The citizen drive to support INE autonomy is pushback against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has been trying to bring the electoral body under control of the executive and stifle its impartiality. The INE’s signature shade is pink. So movement organizers appropriated the color as a marketing tool. Of note is how those marches also turned into rallies for opposition presidential candidate Xochitl Gálvez, who will square off against Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of Mr. López Obrador’s Morena party, on June 2.
Ms. Sheinbaum was handpicked by the president, who is known as AMLO, and is a symbol of continuity with his agenda. Her threats to use executive power to crush pluralism and grab control of the Supreme Court frighten Mexican democrats. If she succeeds, the country could revert to a one-party state, as it was during the 71-year rule of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.
Ms. Gálvez is the undisputed underdog in this race. Since before the campaign officially began, Mr. López Obrador has been running up the fiscal deficit, using government programs to throw money at voters and the economy. He also has used his bully pulpit to campaign for Ms. Sheinbaum, in violation of electoral law.
To win, Ms. Gálvez needs voter turnout in the mid-60% range, which is why the government wants to paint a picture that the race is over and going to the polls is a waste of time for her supporters. Some polling companies, allegedly financed by Morena or its supporters, happily assist by producing household surveys that show the challenger 20 points behind with no chance.
Skepticism is in order. Even if pollsters don’t have bias, it’s important to keep in mind that while household surveys are traditionally a good measurement, today they are notoriously unreliable because the middle class generally refuses to participate.
Meantime, daily polls released by the polling company Massive Caller last week showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with around 12% undecided. Massive Caller uses a technique of random dialing that has been much more accurate than traditional polling methods in recent state elections. The polling company Mexico Elige, which uses social media, also has the race within the margin of error.
Debates over polling methodology remain unsettled. But another way to sniff out voter intention is to look at top priorities. In a national survey published by Mexico Elige earlier this month, nearly 27% of respondents said the No. 1 problem facing the country is public safety. The second most popular response to the question was corruption, and the third was violence. In fourth place was narcotics trafficking. Together these four issues, all dependent on the rule of law, made up 72% of responses. This suggests wide dissatisfaction with how the government has handled one of its most important roles and an appetite for change.
A lack of trust on the part of voters that pollsters will keep their responses confidential may also distort polling results. Mr. López Obrador remains personally popular. Going against him, or his intended successor, is politically incorrect in some quarters. Mexicans who receive subsidies from the government are likely to be more fearful than others that by expressing an intention to vote for Ms. Sheinbaum’s rival, they could get cross-ways with the local Morena chieftain and lose their benefits. A significant shy vote that turns out on election day could be part of a Gálvez surprise.
In 2018, when Mr. López Obrador won with 53% of the vote, low turnout played a big role in his victory. He was helped by the split in the opposition vote between center-right candidate Ricardo Anaya from the National Action Party and the PRI candidate, Jose Antonio Meade. But when the incumbent PRI government threw mud at Mr. Anaya late in the race, alleging that he was corrupt, voters became discouraged. In many places in northern Mexico, which would have benefited from Mr. Anaya’s agenda of free trade and the rule of law, turnout hovered in the low 50% range. A rerun of voter malaise, this time because Ms. Gálvez is given up as a lost cause, would help Ms. Sheinbaum.
That’s what happened in the race for governor in the very important state of Mexico last year. Poll aggregators showed a 15-percentage-point lead for the Morena candidate, suggesting a blowout. Yet Morena won by only 8, sparking speculation that the overly grim forecast had pushed down participation (49%) and created a self-fulfilling prophecy.
If that psychology prevails in the presidential race, and voter turnout is low, it will be good for Ms. Sheinbaum and Morena. But not so good for Mexico.
8
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Statin drugs vs. Vit. D laying foundation for Wuhan Virus?
« on: May 27, 2024, 01:34:32 PM »12
Politics & Religion / Re: Politics at the State & Municipal level
« on: May 27, 2024, 08:12:07 AM »
Important Tenth Amendment questions lurking here.
13
Politics & Religion / Re: Biden Transition and Administration
« on: May 27, 2024, 06:30:41 AM »
ZANG!!!
14
Politics & Religion / WSJ: What was Fauci's top aide hiding
« on: May 27, 2024, 06:17:48 AM »
What Was Anthony Fauci’s Top Aide Hiding?
‘I learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear,’ David Morens wrote in one email.
Allysia Finley
May 26, 2024 6:09 pm ET
Peter Daszak is sworn in during a House Select Subcommittee hearing in Washington, May 1. PHOTO: ANDREW HARNIK/GETTY IMAGES
The Covid pandemic wasn’t government’s finest hour, not least because of a persistent lack of transparency. Emails released last week by the U.S. House reveal how Anthony Fauci’s former top adviser worked to keep the public in the dark and thwart investigations into Covid’s origins.
The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic has been investigating the National Institutes of Health’s funding of the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, some of which flowed to scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology doing risky experiments with coronaviruses. The committee earlier found that the NIH and EcoHealth failed to monitor properly the Wuhan experiments.
Subpoenaed private emails from Dr. Fauci’s senior adviser, David Morens, now show how NIH officials and EcoHealth President Peter Daszak sought to conceal their lapses. After the Trump administration in April 2020 suspended funding for EcoHealth, Dr. Morens rallied to Mr. Daszak’s defense.
“There are things I can’t say except Tony [Fauci] is aware and I have learned there are ongoing efforts within NIH to steer through this with minimal damage to you, Peter, and colleagues, and to nih and niaid,” Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on April 26, 2020. “I have reason to believe that there are already efforts going on to protect you.” (NIAID is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which Dr. Fauci directed from 1984 through 2022.)
Dr. Morens led the Daszak protection program. His subpoenaed emails show that he helped edit EcoHealth’s press releases and worked to get its funding restored. He also sought to thwart Freedom of Information Act requests by outside groups regarding the EcoHealth grant.
On Feb. 24, 2021, Dr. Morens wrote to Boston University scientist Gerald Keusch: “I learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am fioa’d [sic] but before the search starts, so i think we are all safe. Plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail.”
Safe from what? Public scrutiny?
Note that Dr. Morens and Dr. Keusch collaborated on a September 2020 article that claimed “theories about a hypothetical man-made origin of SARS-CoV-2 have been thoroughly discredited by multiple coronavirus experts.” Their article advocated more funding for groups like EcoHealth “to prevent this tragic history from repeating itself.”
Dr. Morens noted in another email to Dr. Keusch: “I learned the tricks last year from an old friend, Marg Moore, who heads our FOIA office and also hates FOIAs.” FOIA productions are burdensome, but government officials are required by law to preserve their emails and to conduct government business on government accounts.
Dr. Morens didn’t, and his emails suggest Dr. Fauci might also have used private addresses in this manner. Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on April 21, 2021: “PS, i forgot to say there is no worry about FOIAs. I can either send stuff to Tony on his private gmail, or hand it to him at work or at his house. He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.”
The next day, Dr. Morens wrote to Dr. Keusch: “If i had to bet, i would guess that beneath Tony’s macho I-am-not-worried reaction he really is concerned. And whatever the case he should be very concerned about what happened to Peter, to our research portfolio in an extremely important area, and to scientific independence.”
In other words, NIH officials worried about losing public support if their EcoHealth records were made public. Was this why the Health and Human Services Department in May 2021 blocked FOIA document releases related to EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology?
Mr. Daszak thought so. “On a cynical note, I suspect HHS is doing this because they feel that Tony Fauci & Francis Collins [then head of NIH] are under pressure, and they don’t want more mud to be slung around,” he wrote to Dr. Morens. The halt on FOIA releases may also have given NIH officials more time to clean out their emails.
Dr. Morens wrote to another outside collaborator, Baylor College of Medicine’s Peter Hotez, on June 28, 2021, that he had deleted all his emails related to the Covid origin “when the s— started hitting the fan.” “I feel pretty sure Tony’s was too. The best way to avoid FOIA hassles is to delete all emails when you learn a subject is getting sensitive.” In other words, Dr. Morens believed that Dr. Fauci’s emails with Mr. Daszak were also deleted to avoid public disclosure.
Amid increasing scrutiny from House Republicans of the EcoHealth grant, Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on Oct. 25, 2021: “Peter from Tony’s numerous recent comments to me, and from what Francis [Collins] has been vocal about over the past 5 days, they are trying to protect you, which also protects their own reputations.”
Dr. Morens’s emails showcase how government officials circled the wagons to protect themselves. Dr. Morens, who is currently on administrative leave owing to the committee’s revelations of his potential federal records law violation, told lawmakers last week that his FOIA avoidance was “wrong” but denied knowledge that his emails constituted federal records under the law. Regardless, he was clearly trying to conceal the Daszak grant background.
In related news, HHS moved last week to bar Mr. Daszak from federal programs, citing EcoHeath’s “improper conduct.” Dr. Keusch in a statement called Mr. Daszak’s punishment “really dangerous to science, for scientists, and for national security.” The real danger to science is lack of candor by health officials.
The House investigation is another illustration of why Americans have lost trust in public-health institutions. Members of Congress might consider cutting funding for the NIH as punishment for employees’ obfuscations.
‘I learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear,’ David Morens wrote in one email.
Allysia Finley
May 26, 2024 6:09 pm ET
Peter Daszak is sworn in during a House Select Subcommittee hearing in Washington, May 1. PHOTO: ANDREW HARNIK/GETTY IMAGES
The Covid pandemic wasn’t government’s finest hour, not least because of a persistent lack of transparency. Emails released last week by the U.S. House reveal how Anthony Fauci’s former top adviser worked to keep the public in the dark and thwart investigations into Covid’s origins.
The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic has been investigating the National Institutes of Health’s funding of the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, some of which flowed to scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology doing risky experiments with coronaviruses. The committee earlier found that the NIH and EcoHealth failed to monitor properly the Wuhan experiments.
Subpoenaed private emails from Dr. Fauci’s senior adviser, David Morens, now show how NIH officials and EcoHealth President Peter Daszak sought to conceal their lapses. After the Trump administration in April 2020 suspended funding for EcoHealth, Dr. Morens rallied to Mr. Daszak’s defense.
“There are things I can’t say except Tony [Fauci] is aware and I have learned there are ongoing efforts within NIH to steer through this with minimal damage to you, Peter, and colleagues, and to nih and niaid,” Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on April 26, 2020. “I have reason to believe that there are already efforts going on to protect you.” (NIAID is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which Dr. Fauci directed from 1984 through 2022.)
Dr. Morens led the Daszak protection program. His subpoenaed emails show that he helped edit EcoHealth’s press releases and worked to get its funding restored. He also sought to thwart Freedom of Information Act requests by outside groups regarding the EcoHealth grant.
On Feb. 24, 2021, Dr. Morens wrote to Boston University scientist Gerald Keusch: “I learned from our foia lady here how to make emails disappear after i am fioa’d [sic] but before the search starts, so i think we are all safe. Plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail.”
Safe from what? Public scrutiny?
Note that Dr. Morens and Dr. Keusch collaborated on a September 2020 article that claimed “theories about a hypothetical man-made origin of SARS-CoV-2 have been thoroughly discredited by multiple coronavirus experts.” Their article advocated more funding for groups like EcoHealth “to prevent this tragic history from repeating itself.”
Dr. Morens noted in another email to Dr. Keusch: “I learned the tricks last year from an old friend, Marg Moore, who heads our FOIA office and also hates FOIAs.” FOIA productions are burdensome, but government officials are required by law to preserve their emails and to conduct government business on government accounts.
Dr. Morens didn’t, and his emails suggest Dr. Fauci might also have used private addresses in this manner. Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on April 21, 2021: “PS, i forgot to say there is no worry about FOIAs. I can either send stuff to Tony on his private gmail, or hand it to him at work or at his house. He is too smart to let colleagues send him stuff that could cause trouble.”
The next day, Dr. Morens wrote to Dr. Keusch: “If i had to bet, i would guess that beneath Tony’s macho I-am-not-worried reaction he really is concerned. And whatever the case he should be very concerned about what happened to Peter, to our research portfolio in an extremely important area, and to scientific independence.”
In other words, NIH officials worried about losing public support if their EcoHealth records were made public. Was this why the Health and Human Services Department in May 2021 blocked FOIA document releases related to EcoHealth and the Wuhan Institute of Virology?
Mr. Daszak thought so. “On a cynical note, I suspect HHS is doing this because they feel that Tony Fauci & Francis Collins [then head of NIH] are under pressure, and they don’t want more mud to be slung around,” he wrote to Dr. Morens. The halt on FOIA releases may also have given NIH officials more time to clean out their emails.
Dr. Morens wrote to another outside collaborator, Baylor College of Medicine’s Peter Hotez, on June 28, 2021, that he had deleted all his emails related to the Covid origin “when the s— started hitting the fan.” “I feel pretty sure Tony’s was too. The best way to avoid FOIA hassles is to delete all emails when you learn a subject is getting sensitive.” In other words, Dr. Morens believed that Dr. Fauci’s emails with Mr. Daszak were also deleted to avoid public disclosure.
Amid increasing scrutiny from House Republicans of the EcoHealth grant, Dr. Morens wrote to Mr. Daszak on Oct. 25, 2021: “Peter from Tony’s numerous recent comments to me, and from what Francis [Collins] has been vocal about over the past 5 days, they are trying to protect you, which also protects their own reputations.”
Dr. Morens’s emails showcase how government officials circled the wagons to protect themselves. Dr. Morens, who is currently on administrative leave owing to the committee’s revelations of his potential federal records law violation, told lawmakers last week that his FOIA avoidance was “wrong” but denied knowledge that his emails constituted federal records under the law. Regardless, he was clearly trying to conceal the Daszak grant background.
In related news, HHS moved last week to bar Mr. Daszak from federal programs, citing EcoHeath’s “improper conduct.” Dr. Keusch in a statement called Mr. Daszak’s punishment “really dangerous to science, for scientists, and for national security.” The real danger to science is lack of candor by health officials.
The House investigation is another illustration of why Americans have lost trust in public-health institutions. Members of Congress might consider cutting funding for the NIH as punishment for employees’ obfuscations.
16
Politics & Religion / Re: The Cognitive Dissonance of the Republicans
« on: May 27, 2024, 05:54:01 AM »
Potent.
17
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Open Borders produced the Biden economic boom?!?
« on: May 27, 2024, 05:51:33 AM »
Much to disagree with here, but some important questions raised.
===============================================
Open Borders Produced the Biden Economic Boom
Why doesn’t he get credit for strong growth? In part because he can’t defend his immigration policies.
By Donald L. Luskin
May 24, 2024 4:35 pm ET
Migrants trying to enter the U.S. cut barbed wire fencing at the border with Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, May 13. PHOTO: AFP CONTRIBUTOR#AFP/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Supporters of President Biden wonder why he gets such low ratings on the economy despite strong growth and low unemployment. The conventional answer is persistent inflation, and there’s truth to that. But an underappreciated factor is that Mr. Biden has achieved his economic successes via a politically unpalatable and ultimately unsustainable means: the uncontrolled influx of immigrants into the U.S. across the southern border. It’s a catastrophe of lawlessness and maladministration. But it appears to have contributed to a strong labor market and to economic growth.
Consider the 3.2 million increase in the foreign-born adult population in the U.S. in the 21 months since July 2022. We start at that date because it gives us a clean slate, free from the effects of the pandemic lockdown and reopening. And this period captures the full effect of the Biden administration’s loose border policies.
Over that period, foreign-born employment has increased 1.8 million—meaning that roughly 56% of the 3.2 million new foreign-born adult population became employed. Setting aside the political matter of how much of this employment is legal, the stereotype that immigrants don’t or can’t work appears to be false.
These numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly jobs report. They are collected in the Current Population Survey—the so-called household survey—which is used to calculate the national unemployment rate. It’s an old-fashioned door-to-door census of 60,000 households in which respondents are asked, among many questions, whether they are native-born or foreign-born. They aren’t asked if they are in the country illegally, and no doubt some are. But illegal aliens may be harder to find and less likely to answer a knock on the door, so the BLS probably undercounts them.
Even undercounted, the foreign-born represent 80% of the 4.1 million U.S. adult population increase since July 2022, and they account for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs. All else equal, without the new foreign-born workers, total job growth in the economy would have been about 86,000 less every month—only 724,000 over the period, not 2.52 million.
Considering that population and employment growth are the most important variables in economic growth, it would seem that without the present immigration surge the economy would have grown less than a third as much as it actually has in a series of strong quarters since July 2022, across which annual real GDP growth averaged 2.8%—compared with the Federal Reserve’s estimate of growth potential at only 1.8%.
That wouldn’t be true if the new immigrants were parasitically taking jobs that the native-born would have gotten otherwise. Since July 2022, the native-born adult population grew by 821,000, and its employment grew by 724,000, which is to say that 88% of them found jobs. It would seem that the problem for new native-born adults is that there are so few of them, not that they can’t get work.
It is likely the case that the new foreign-born adults are diluting the productivity of the U.S. economy by arriving with few skills and with language and education deficits. But the economy needs many low-skill workers, and they rapidly acquire skills on the job, so they will surely contribute to productivity growth in the future.
Yes, new immigrants put incremental demands on roads, hospitals, schools and other resources. But so do new native-born citizens. For either population, the question is what they produce as well as what they consume. The evidence shows that the foreign born are more likely to be producers than the native-born. In total, the foreign-born employment-to-population ratio is 63.4%. For the native-born, it is only 59.6%. By hook or by crook, legal or illegal, new immigrants are working.
It would seem that in purely economic terms, and at least for the moment, the Biden administration’s loose border policy is a feature, not a bug. But politically it’s a loser this election year, and it’s no surprise that the Biden administration isn’t bragging about it.
In a February Pew poll, 77% of Americans said that the southern border is either a “crisis” or a “major problem.” Even 62% of Democrats agreed. People see the bug, not the features, because the boom in job growth from immigration is, by definition, experienced by people most Americans here already don’t know—and, presumably, who won’t be able to vote this November. And even with his own political base, it would be awkward for Mr. Biden to argue that he has produced economic growth via laissez-faire deregulation at the border.
Such a policy is unsustainable in any case. Under capitalism, economic growth depends on trust—on the ability of economic participants to rely on others’ adherence to a set of defined and stable rules. The ad hoc lawlessness of the Biden border policy undermines that, and unless it can be stabilized it will be corrosive to long-term growth prospects. On the other hand, a border crackdown such as Donald Trump has proposed could end up leading to slower growth. Whoever is president in 2025 will need to take great care in balancing these urgent interests.
Mr. Luskin is CEO of TrendMacro.
===============================================
Open Borders Produced the Biden Economic Boom
Why doesn’t he get credit for strong growth? In part because he can’t defend his immigration policies.
By Donald L. Luskin
May 24, 2024 4:35 pm ET
Migrants trying to enter the U.S. cut barbed wire fencing at the border with Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, May 13. PHOTO: AFP CONTRIBUTOR#AFP/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Supporters of President Biden wonder why he gets such low ratings on the economy despite strong growth and low unemployment. The conventional answer is persistent inflation, and there’s truth to that. But an underappreciated factor is that Mr. Biden has achieved his economic successes via a politically unpalatable and ultimately unsustainable means: the uncontrolled influx of immigrants into the U.S. across the southern border. It’s a catastrophe of lawlessness and maladministration. But it appears to have contributed to a strong labor market and to economic growth.
Consider the 3.2 million increase in the foreign-born adult population in the U.S. in the 21 months since July 2022. We start at that date because it gives us a clean slate, free from the effects of the pandemic lockdown and reopening. And this period captures the full effect of the Biden administration’s loose border policies.
Over that period, foreign-born employment has increased 1.8 million—meaning that roughly 56% of the 3.2 million new foreign-born adult population became employed. Setting aside the political matter of how much of this employment is legal, the stereotype that immigrants don’t or can’t work appears to be false.
These numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly jobs report. They are collected in the Current Population Survey—the so-called household survey—which is used to calculate the national unemployment rate. It’s an old-fashioned door-to-door census of 60,000 households in which respondents are asked, among many questions, whether they are native-born or foreign-born. They aren’t asked if they are in the country illegally, and no doubt some are. But illegal aliens may be harder to find and less likely to answer a knock on the door, so the BLS probably undercounts them.
Even undercounted, the foreign-born represent 80% of the 4.1 million U.S. adult population increase since July 2022, and they account for 71% of the 2.5 million new jobs. All else equal, without the new foreign-born workers, total job growth in the economy would have been about 86,000 less every month—only 724,000 over the period, not 2.52 million.
Considering that population and employment growth are the most important variables in economic growth, it would seem that without the present immigration surge the economy would have grown less than a third as much as it actually has in a series of strong quarters since July 2022, across which annual real GDP growth averaged 2.8%—compared with the Federal Reserve’s estimate of growth potential at only 1.8%.
That wouldn’t be true if the new immigrants were parasitically taking jobs that the native-born would have gotten otherwise. Since July 2022, the native-born adult population grew by 821,000, and its employment grew by 724,000, which is to say that 88% of them found jobs. It would seem that the problem for new native-born adults is that there are so few of them, not that they can’t get work.
It is likely the case that the new foreign-born adults are diluting the productivity of the U.S. economy by arriving with few skills and with language and education deficits. But the economy needs many low-skill workers, and they rapidly acquire skills on the job, so they will surely contribute to productivity growth in the future.
Yes, new immigrants put incremental demands on roads, hospitals, schools and other resources. But so do new native-born citizens. For either population, the question is what they produce as well as what they consume. The evidence shows that the foreign born are more likely to be producers than the native-born. In total, the foreign-born employment-to-population ratio is 63.4%. For the native-born, it is only 59.6%. By hook or by crook, legal or illegal, new immigrants are working.
It would seem that in purely economic terms, and at least for the moment, the Biden administration’s loose border policy is a feature, not a bug. But politically it’s a loser this election year, and it’s no surprise that the Biden administration isn’t bragging about it.
In a February Pew poll, 77% of Americans said that the southern border is either a “crisis” or a “major problem.” Even 62% of Democrats agreed. People see the bug, not the features, because the boom in job growth from immigration is, by definition, experienced by people most Americans here already don’t know—and, presumably, who won’t be able to vote this November. And even with his own political base, it would be awkward for Mr. Biden to argue that he has produced economic growth via laissez-faire deregulation at the border.
Such a policy is unsustainable in any case. Under capitalism, economic growth depends on trust—on the ability of economic participants to rely on others’ adherence to a set of defined and stable rules. The ad hoc lawlessness of the Biden border policy undermines that, and unless it can be stabilized it will be corrosive to long-term growth prospects. On the other hand, a border crackdown such as Donald Trump has proposed could end up leading to slower growth. Whoever is president in 2025 will need to take great care in balancing these urgent interests.
Mr. Luskin is CEO of TrendMacro.
19
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Newsweek: Water Safety-state by state
« on: May 26, 2024, 05:41:47 AM »20
Politics & Religion / Re: Political Rants & interesting thought pieces
« on: May 25, 2024, 04:38:54 PM »
And let's snatch and save it for ourselves if and when we do find it!
22
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Science
« on: May 25, 2024, 09:02:59 AM »
"Don’t let the practical gum up the elegant, damn you! 
"
"If there was a will a way would be found"
Well?
""If there was a will a way would be found"
Well?
24
Science, Culture, & Humanities / PP: the campaign to discredit SCOTUS
« on: May 25, 2024, 08:53:31 AM »NYT Scoop: Alito Is an 'Insurrectionist'
The Supreme Court justice has faced attacks over a couple of flag displays at his homes.
Nate Jackson
Democrats need to delegitimize the Supreme Court so they can eventually pack it with loyal leftists. Keep that in mind every time they attack Clarence Thomas over a vacation or Samuel Alito over a flag.
The latter justice has been the subject of leftist consternation for the last week or so, ever since The New York Times put a team of crack journalists on the case of a couple of flags flown by the Alito family.
First up was a breathless story drawing a straight line from Justice Alito to January 6. "At Justice Alito's House, a 'Stop the Steal' Symbol on Display," read the Times headline, followed by the teaser, "An upside-down flag, adopted by Trump supporters contesting the Biden victory, flew over the justice's front lawn as the Supreme Court was considering an election case."
The story didn't use the word "insurrectionists" (or, as Joe Biden recently called them, "erectionists"), but the Times insists the connection was clear: "The upside-down flag was aloft on Jan. 17, 2021, the images showed. President Donald J. Trump's supporters, including some brandishing the same symbol, had rioted at the Capitol a little over a week before."
Never mind that Alito was on the losing side of that election case, meaning the flag had no bearing on the outcome of the case.
More importantly, "I had no involvement whatsoever in the flying of the flag," Justice Alito said in an emailed statement to The Times. "It was briefly placed by Mrs. Alito in response to a neighbor's use of objectionable and personally insulting language on yard signs."
Shannon Bream of Fox News shares what the Times didn't tell you:
I spoke directly with Justice Alito about the flag story in the NYT. In addition to what's in the story, he told me a neighbor on their street had a "F*** Trump" sign that was within 50 feet of where children await the school bus in Jan 21. Mrs. Alito brought this up with the neighbor. According to Justice Alito, things escalated and the neighbor put up a sign personally addressing Mrs. Alito and blaming her for the Jan 6th attacks.
So, where did the "Stop the Steal" connection come from? An "expert" cited by the Times called an upside-down flag "the equivalent of putting a 'Stop the Steal' sign in your yard."
Oh, so it's a dog whistle for "experts."
The truth is that an upside-down flag has long been understood as a sign of distress.
A few days later, the Times put three journalists on another story about a "provocative flag" flown by the Alitos: "The justice's beach house displayed an 'Appeal to Heaven' flag, a symbol carried on Jan. 6 and associated with a push for a more Christian-minded government." The Times spends much of its word count in both articles discussing ethics rules for jurists, though none of those rules apply to spouses.
This flag appeared at the Long Beach Island house in 2023, but it, too, sounded the same dog whistle for "Stop the Steal."
Senator Dick Durbin called it part of "the Court's ongoing ethical crisis." Senator Mazie Hirono wailed, "We have an out-of-control Supreme Court majority." Clearly, the real game here is to delegitimize the Court. Senator Jeff Merkley literally said it: "Frustration with the Court in the sense that it is illegitimate is extremely high."
The long-term objective is delegitimizing the Court, but the short-term aim is winning a couple of cases. "Alito must recuse himself immediately from cases related to the 2020 election and the January 6th insurrection," Durbin insisted. He didn't say it, but these hit pieces are also retribution for Alito having written the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
The Democrats attempt to smear and discredit every originalist, and they have been doing so since Ted Kennedy made a sick sport out of "borking" nominees to the bench. Alito was the victim of that same vile tactic in 2006, which left Mrs. Alito in tears at the time.
Furthermore, call me crazy, but it's pretty rich for leftists to be outraged about flags. They burn the American flag, for one thing, in addition to kneeling instead of saluting it during the national anthem. Spare me the outrage over flying it upside down.
They also plaster rainbow flags over almost literally everything (including the American flag) for large parts of the year, especially "Pride Month," which — I appeal to heaven! — starts in a few days. Last year in June, Joe Biden flew the garish transgender flag from the White House itself — while some dude flashed his prosthetic breasts on the lawn, I might add. Biden's State Department flies the rainbow flag at its facilities all over the world (except in Muslim countries).
"The Constitution provides that the government shall not establish any official religion," opined Senator Brian Schatz, but the rainbow flag is arguably a symbol of the Left's state religion. But the Times reporters have their knickers in a twist over a Revolutionary-era flag.
The "Appeal to Heaven" flag, by the way, originates with an important American named George Washington. Maybe the Times reporters have heard of him. He specifically commissioned it in 1775, and it was designed by his personal secretary, Colonel Joseph Reed. In a sense, it was the symbol of a real insurrection — the one against the British tyrants who overtaxed and tried to disarm American colonists. Come to think of it, that sounds familiar...
25
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Constitutional Convention
« on: May 25, 2024, 08:45:44 AM »
I disagree with this due to lack of present day talent and doubts about ability to prevent runaway horseshit, but share it here in the interest of convesation:
file:///C:/Users/craft/Downloads/ConventionofStatesSummary.pdf
file:///C:/Users/craft/Downloads/ConventionofStatesSummary.pdf
26
Politics & Religion / Re: Memorial Day
« on: May 25, 2024, 08:42:01 AM »Note the Navajo Funeral Montage on our front page at the moment, then watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKc3w1Y17XQ&t=46s
28
Politics & Religion / Congressman Dan Bishop's SAVE Act bill
« on: May 25, 2024, 07:54:58 AM »
The Fight for Election Integrity
A critical bill to protect our federal elections will soon receive a vote on the House floor – the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which I am a proudly cosponsoring.
Only Americans should vote in our federal elections. This should be simple, noncontroversial, and enforced rigorously. Sadly, that’s not currently the case. While current law makes it illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, states are not required to verify U.S. citizenship before an individual registers to vote.
Essentially, our federal elections are run on the honor system, trusting that illegal immigrants will not simply check a box when registering to vote saying they are U.S. citizens. Even the Associated Press admitted this week that illegal aliens have been found voting in our elections. Many jurisdictions, including Washington D.C., want to explicitly allow them to vote in local elections so they can then use that as a launching pad to allow it on the federal level.
This is shameful and un-American. Combatting this nefarious practice is more important than ever, as Biden has orchestrated a mass invasion of our borders. Millions of illegal aliens have entered, with more arriving daily. It’s long past time that we stop this madness. The SAVE Act will require individuals to prove citizenship when registering to vote and ensuring states remove non-citizens from their existing voter rolls.
A critical bill to protect our federal elections will soon receive a vote on the House floor – the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which I am a proudly cosponsoring.
Only Americans should vote in our federal elections. This should be simple, noncontroversial, and enforced rigorously. Sadly, that’s not currently the case. While current law makes it illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, states are not required to verify U.S. citizenship before an individual registers to vote.
Essentially, our federal elections are run on the honor system, trusting that illegal immigrants will not simply check a box when registering to vote saying they are U.S. citizens. Even the Associated Press admitted this week that illegal aliens have been found voting in our elections. Many jurisdictions, including Washington D.C., want to explicitly allow them to vote in local elections so they can then use that as a launching pad to allow it on the federal level.
This is shameful and un-American. Combatting this nefarious practice is more important than ever, as Biden has orchestrated a mass invasion of our borders. Millions of illegal aliens have entered, with more arriving daily. It’s long past time that we stop this madness. The SAVE Act will require individuals to prove citizenship when registering to vote and ensuring states remove non-citizens from their existing voter rolls.
30
Politics & Religion / GPF: Argentina Milei: The State of the Transformation
« on: May 25, 2024, 05:55:15 AM »Geopolitical Futures
May 24, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF
The State of Argentina’s ‘Transformation’
Milei’s government has been more pragmatic than it said it would be.
By: Allison Fedirka
Argentine President Javier Milei will not be commemorating his country’s revolution on May 25 as originally planned. At the beginning of the year, he intended to use the holiday as an occasion to sign the Pacto de Mayo, a 10-point declaration meant to establish a new social contract and economic order for the country, one that he hoped would receive the support of political leaders from all parties and provinces. Instead, he will be in the city of Cordoba to give his state of the union address and oversee more modest ceremonial celebrations.
The government still has every intention to pursue the Pacto de Mayo, but Milei publicly pre-conditioned the deal’s signing on the passage of the Bases Law and certain tax reforms. These have been passed by the lower house of the Argentine legislature but still need to be approved by the upper. Put simply, Milei’s reforms are not advancing as quickly as he would like, pitting him against growing social pressure amid difficult economic conditions. Yet his government has proved more pragmatic than expected, so Milei may have more time to execute his changes.
One of the public’s biggest complaints is the decline of purchasing power, which owes to inflation brought on by the government’s decision to lift market controls. Private employees fared significantly better than public employees, with respective decreases of 11.2 percent and 21.3 percent. More concerning is that in the past six months, the country’s minimum wage has lost 29 percent of its purchasing power, pushing more people into poverty. Argentina’s Pontifical Catholic University estimates that the poverty rate now stands at 57 percent. While better insulated from economic shock, even the country’s upper class has started to feel the pinch as inflation outpaces favorable exchange rates and a sharp decline in disposable income.
Purchasing Power Decline
(click to enlarge)
Despite the Milei government’s extreme adherence to libertarian economic principles, it has shown a willingness to be less rigid in strategic moments and fairly responsive to social pressure. At the beginning of his term, for example, Milei allowed prices on all items to rise unchecked, only to later slow inflation by reducing the rate of subsidy cuts and putting price caps on certain items amid public backlash. In April, university students – a demographic that strongly supported Milei’s presidential candidacy – protested against what they saw as insufficient government funding and resources; weeks later, the government raised the functional budget for national universities by 270 percent. One of Milei’s first acts as president was to present a series of decrees meant to overhaul the economy and political system. When met with fierce opposition in the legislature and the judiciary, the government toned down its proposals in the more palatable Bases Law proposal currently making its way through the legislature. (The new version would still enable Milei to move forward with many of his desired reforms but requires less political sacrifice.)
Monthly and Annual Inflation Rates
(click to enlarge)
In fact, the Bases Law shows that the administration is capable of taking its time to advance reforms if doing so translates to more political support. Major components of the proposal call for the partial-to-full privatization of a handful of state-run companies and the scaling down of private companies to make them more efficient. Naturally, this upset Argentine unions, so the government is studying each case and entering negotiations with corresponding unions to make the proposal more palatable.
By insisting that the Pacto de Mayo remains on the agenda, the Milei administration has signaled its near-term plans to continue with reforms once the Bases Law is passed. Among the pact’s priorities are the schemes through which Buenos Aires funds the provinces, a renewed interest in provincial commitment to promote resource extraction, and the opening of the economy to international trade and commerce. The government also plans to reduce taxes on foreign currency exchanges, agriculture exports and financial transactions. It believes it will benefit from the planned cuts. The forex tax will support the elimination of the parallel exchange market, and the export tax will encourage exports and win favor among farmers, a large and influential group in the country. Unlike with the Pacto de Mayo, however, the government conditioned these moves on a resumption of economic growth rather than a particular deadline, thereby reducing the risk of embarrassing itself for taking longer than expected to deliver on plans.
Argentina | Exchange Rates
(click to enlarge)
Critics of Milei argue that the government is touting false progress and that deteriorating economic conditions are just the beginning of the country’s troubles. The government has trumpeted its success in no longer running a public deficit and reducing monthly inflation to a single digit. The counterargument is that annual inflation remains high, and recession and lower purchasing power abated inflation, not the government. Critics also argue that it’s easy to reduce a deficit when the government simply stops spending any money – a charge that isn’t without merit. Other concerns are the reforms’ knockoff effects, which include potentially increased unemployment and security problems. Emerging anecdotal evidence – such as construction workers being laid off due to less government-funded public works projects and a police strike in Misiones province – feed these concerns.
Argentina's Public Spending
(click to enlarge)
The problem with Milei’s approach to reform – which he has called “shock therapy” – is that it assumes and plans for the economy to get worse before it gets better. It is predicated on high risk and high reward. The Argentine economy appears in worse shape now than when Milei took office. However, under the shock therapy strategy, the economy would look this bad as a matter of course – even if it were successful.
At this point, economic health alone isn’t a reliable indicator of the potential success or failure of Milei’s planned overhaul. A more subtle look at the government’s response to political and social pressures shows that it may be adept enough to keep reforms moving forward. If that’s the case, the next big challenge will be fine-tuning the new economic model so that the changes stick.
35
Politics & Religion / A final indignity to the arsenal of democracy
« on: May 25, 2024, 04:16:55 AM »36
Politics & Religion / Re: I was told I could promote my book so here...
« on: May 25, 2024, 04:14:41 AM »A timely reminder. I just posted it on my FB page.
42
Politics & Religion / Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« on: May 23, 2024, 04:53:57 PM »
Heh heh!
44
Politics & Religion / Re: The Goolag, Facebook, Youtube, Amazon, Twitter, Gov censorship via Tech Octopus
« on: May 23, 2024, 03:57:07 PM »
From the Deep State thread a few days ago-- guess who is behind this play?
"James Clapper and John Brennan"?!? The Axis of the Deep State and the Controligarchs burrows in deeper yet:
=========================
Forward Observer
(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.
Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.
"James Clapper and John Brennan"?!? The Axis of the Deep State and the Controligarchs burrows in deeper yet:
=========================
Forward Observer
(2) DHS RESTARTS INTEL ADVISORY BOARD AFTER COURT LOSS: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced it will establish the Homeland Intelligence Advisory Board, which will mirror the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group.
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas disbanded the Homeland Intelligence Experts Group earlier this month to resolve a lawsuit brought by America First Legal, which argued that DHS did not follow the law when it established the group.
Why It Matters: This is an additional data point supporting the likely increase in coordination between federal agencies and online platforms to censor political speech in the fight against “misinformation” and “election interference.” James Clapper and John Brennan, as part of the new advisory board and members of the disbanded experts group, signed a letter ahead of the 2020 election claiming media coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had the hallmarks of Russian disinformation operations.” This is likely to result in more censorship of online political speech and media coverage of stories that could negatively impact Biden’s reelection. – R.C.
46
Politics & Religion / Strange shooting in Carthage NC
« on: May 23, 2024, 03:52:55 PM »
About 20 miles from our home:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/special-operations-soldier-under-investigation-in-deadly-shooting-of-accused-trespasser-in-north-carolina/ar-BB1mV91J
This is about three weeks old, but Jennifer Griffin had a major piece on this tonight on Bret Baier. Can someone find it and post it here please?
PS: Our local paper:
https://sandhillssentinel.com/sheriff-provides-update-on-dowd-road-shooting/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/special-operations-soldier-under-investigation-in-deadly-shooting-of-accused-trespasser-in-north-carolina/ar-BB1mV91J
This is about three weeks old, but Jennifer Griffin had a major piece on this tonight on Bret Baier. Can someone find it and post it here please?
PS: Our local paper:
https://sandhillssentinel.com/sheriff-provides-update-on-dowd-road-shooting/
47
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Issues in the American Creed (Constitutional Law and related matters) SCOTUS
« on: May 23, 2024, 02:59:51 PM »
"Upon further reading, Locke and his philosophical progeny understood the "laws of nature" are the moral law that God plainly reveals to all of humanity and can be discerned through reason, and without religious observance."
From a pleasant conversation on another forum. The reference to "the Laws of Nature" is from our Declaration of Independence's phrase "the laws of Nature and of Nature's God".
From a pleasant conversation on another forum. The reference to "the Laws of Nature" is from our Declaration of Independence's phrase "the laws of Nature and of Nature's God".
48
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Astronomy and Outer Space
« on: May 23, 2024, 02:54:26 PM »
Interesting 
Reminds me of the observatory on the mountain top at Picacho del Diablo in Baja Calif ornia. Badly out of date now, but the starting principle of altitude in an area of low human light pollution is in play.
Reminds me of the observatory on the mountain top at Picacho del Diablo in Baja Calif ornia. Badly out of date now, but the starting principle of altitude in an area of low human light pollution is in play.
49
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Science
« on: May 23, 2024, 02:49:25 PM »
OOOOOOHHH!!!
I think I like this!!!
Who judges?
Who pays?
How is the amount to be paid calculated?
And to whom does it go?
I think I like this!!!
Who judges?
Who pays?
How is the amount to be paid calculated?
And to whom does it go?
50
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Re: Intelligence and Psychology, Artificial Intelligence
« on: May 23, 2024, 02:47:47 PM »
Am I correct to assess that this passage is quite congurent with Lorenz's work?
==================
With extensive imaging of the brain, neuroscientists today agree that consciousness emerges from the brain’s wiring and activity. But multiple theories argue about how electrical signals in the brain produce rich and intimate experiences of our lives.
Part of the problem, wrote the authors, is that there isn’t a clear definition of “consciousness.” In this paper, they separated the term into two experiences: one outer, one inner. The outer experience, called phenomenal consciousness, is when we immediately realize what we’re experiencing—for example, seeing a total solar eclipse or the northern lights.
The inner experience is a bit like a “gut feeling” in that it helps to form expectations and types of memory, so that tapping into it lets us plan behaviors and actions.
Both are aspects of consciousnesses, but the difference is hardly delineated in previous work. It makes comparing theories difficult, wrote the authors, but that’s what they set out to do.
Meet the Contenders
Using their “two experience” framework, they examined five prominent consciousness theories.
The first, the global neuronal workspace theory, pictures the brain as a city of sorts. Each local brain region “hub” dynamically interacts with a “global workspace,” which integrates and broadcasts information to other hubs for further processing—allowing information to reach the consciousness level. In other words, we only perceive something when all pieces of sensory information—sight, hearing, touch, taste—are woven into a temporary neural sketchpad. According to this theory, the seat of consciousness is in the frontal parts of the brain.
==================
With extensive imaging of the brain, neuroscientists today agree that consciousness emerges from the brain’s wiring and activity. But multiple theories argue about how electrical signals in the brain produce rich and intimate experiences of our lives.
Part of the problem, wrote the authors, is that there isn’t a clear definition of “consciousness.” In this paper, they separated the term into two experiences: one outer, one inner. The outer experience, called phenomenal consciousness, is when we immediately realize what we’re experiencing—for example, seeing a total solar eclipse or the northern lights.
The inner experience is a bit like a “gut feeling” in that it helps to form expectations and types of memory, so that tapping into it lets us plan behaviors and actions.
Both are aspects of consciousnesses, but the difference is hardly delineated in previous work. It makes comparing theories difficult, wrote the authors, but that’s what they set out to do.
Meet the Contenders
Using their “two experience” framework, they examined five prominent consciousness theories.
The first, the global neuronal workspace theory, pictures the brain as a city of sorts. Each local brain region “hub” dynamically interacts with a “global workspace,” which integrates and broadcasts information to other hubs for further processing—allowing information to reach the consciousness level. In other words, we only perceive something when all pieces of sensory information—sight, hearing, touch, taste—are woven into a temporary neural sketchpad. According to this theory, the seat of consciousness is in the frontal parts of the brain.