Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities => Politics & Religion => Topic started by: DougMacG on June 08, 2007, 10:00:56 AM

Title: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on June 08, 2007, 10:00:56 AM
I didn't see an English language thread for Venezuela, so I hope this can be a place to exchange information and views.

It's nice to see Denny (captainccs) post.  I remember his wisdom on investing and life posted elsewhere.  I was concerned for his safety when I saw a gap between posts of Chavez dissent on his site at softwaretimes.com. 

I wonder what people in Venezuela can or should do to get their country back, and I wonder what people in the U.S. and other countries can or should do to help.

Here is a Reuters (English) version of the Douglas Barrios story since I can't read the Spanish version. Click on the link to include the protest photo with the story.

http://en.epochtimes.com/news/7-6-7/56241.html

Students Take TV Fight to Venezuela Congress

Reuters,     Jun 07, 2007

Thousands of students and university rectors and professors march for freedom of expression in Caracas. (Photo)

CARACAS—Students took their 11-day-old protest over President Hugo Chavez's shutdown of the last nationwide opposition television station to Venezuela's Congress on Thursday, in a rare appearance by the opposition in the legislature.

Addressing the 167-member body, where there have been no opposition lawmakers since 2005, student leader Douglas Barrios said daily demonstrations against the closure of RCTV would continue.

"Today our classes are in the street," he said in remarks that were broadcast nationally.

At one point, Barrios took off his T-shirt in the signature red of Chavez, saying Venezuelans could refuse to wear the government uniform—a reference to the opposition's charge that Chavez intimidates people into displaying support for him.

The closing has become the rallying cry for a nascent pro-democracy student movement that critics of the president hope can help fill a void left by a weak opposition in the polarized OPEC nation.

Congress, which has granted Chavez the power to rule by decree, organized a debate over the station's closure between pro- and anti-government students and the government required all Venezuelan television and radio to broadcast the session.

The anti-Chavez students—part of a mainly middle-class movement that has at times drawn tens of thousands onto the streets—walked out after the first pro-government speech, complaining the event was politicized.

They were escorted past Chavez supporters outside by security forces with anti-riot shields. Some were driven off in a troop carrier.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: rogt on June 08, 2007, 01:02:44 PM
From what I understand, all that's happened here is that RCTV's broadcast license expired and the Venezuelan government chose not to renew it.  Under Venezuelan law, the government is empowered to grant or deny a private broadcast corporation the right to use public airwaves to the extent that such use benefits the public.  RCTV has not been disbanded, it's directors have not been arrested or jailed, and it's equipment/assets have not been seized.  The station is still free to broadcast on cable or satellite, and retains the right to broadcast on it's two radio stations.  I can understand disagreeing with the decision, but IMO it clearly doesn't qualify as a threat to free expression.

It's also worth noting the Chavez government's official, stated reason for the decision, which was RCTV's direct support for an illegal coup attempt back in 2002.  First, they  deliberately broadcast a report stating that gunfire that claimed the lives of at least 18 people and wounded another 150 was the work of pro-Chavez thugs (this was actually used as the pretext for the coup), when in fact the people who'd been shot and wounded (by snipers) were actually Chavez supporters trying to defend the presidential palace against the opposition demonstration.  Second, they reported that Chavez had voluntarily resigned, when in fact he had been kidnapped and was being held prisoner at a military base.  Then when it turned out that the coup had almost no popular support (evinced by hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans demonstrating in opposition to it and demanding that Chavez be reinstated), RCTV just stopped broadcasting news altogether and instead showed cartoons and old movies.

Two other major private broadcasters in Venezuela, Venevision and Globovision, were considered more or less equally supportive of the 2002 coup.  Globovision was the Venezuelan affiliate of CNN, which in April 2002 turned over its airwaves to Admiral Hector Ramirez, then chief of the Venezuelan navy, to broadcast an appeal to all military personnel to join the coup.  Both of them retain their broadcast licenses.

Also FWIW, two of our allies in the "war on terror", Pakistan and Peru, have similarly ordered transmissions blocked and/or revocation of broadcast licenses from TV stations for purely political reasons (in Pakistan it was a station's criticism of Musharraf's decision to remove the Chief Justice, in Peru it was a station's support for a labor strike), and this evoked no comment whatsoever from the same Bush administration.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on June 08, 2007, 04:38:55 PM
The key phrase to me was not the news in the news story, that the opposition was voicing opposition, it was the background information that concerns me:

"Congress, which has granted Chavez the power to rule by decree..."

I will look into the points you made and I hope others will post, especially Denny, who is there.  By his cartoon post that shows Chavez speaking on all channels, I don't think he agrees with you, but hopefully we will get a first-hand account in his own words.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: rogt on June 08, 2007, 06:04:13 PM
Yeah, I won't say I love Chavez or "rule by decree", but I believe in being honest.  Simply refusing to renew RCTV's broadcast license sounds like something the government was well within it's authority to do and does not constitute an attack on free speech.

I too look forward to any comments ccp may have about this.

Rog
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 08, 2007, 06:06:01 PM
I've emailed Denny about the existence of this thread.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on June 08, 2007, 07:42:32 PM
Hi guys, reporting from Caracas:

A very concise timeline reply to rogt about the April 11, 2002 events:

1.- There was a peaceful march that was not supposed go to Miraflores, our White House
2.- Somehow the crowd changed its mind and headed for Miraflores
3.- The Plan "Avila" designed by Chavez included firing on the civilians by the military
4.- When the march reached Puente Llaguno, the bolivarian circles fired on the crowd. A photographer friend of mine was there and I have his first hand eye witness account.
5.- Chavez ordered the National Guard to fire on the civilians
6.- The National Guard refused to follow the order and the military arrested Chavez and asked for his resignation, which he gave.
7.- The Opposition committee (Carmona et al) moved into Miraflores and was sworn in as the "government"
8.- Carmona read the most ridiculous decree that I have ever heard in my life dissolving all constituted authority and changing the country's name back to what it had been before Chavez changed the constitution.
9.- Hearing such idiocy, the military backtracked and brought Chavez back.

This was a terrible waste of a great opportunity to be rid of Chavez but the opposition really, really messed up. Over the next four years the political opposition to Chavez made the Keystone cops look good. Totally incompetent for the job at hand (removing Chavez), corrupt as always and wanting to split a pie that was not theirs to split. "We, the people" didn't want Chavez and we didn't want the opposition political parties either. A boat without direction is the best way to describe the opposition at the time.

In the poorer sections of the population there was quite a bit of support for Chavez, not so much because he was good but because returning to the old political parties was even worse.

Things were moving along without much hope for the opposition and with Chavez tightening the screws. You might remember the show he put on in the United Nations where he did not get his way. But he did buy a lot of international support by giving away our wealth. Socialists like Lula of Brazil and Kirchner from Argentina, who benefitted handsomely from his handouts, were stalwart supporters.

About the closing of RCTV:

Over the last 5 or 6 years, Chavez has been threatening business giving them the choice to sell out half to Chavez backers or to be shut down. Most complied. You have to understand Venezuelan history to understand why most businesses accepted. In a way it is very similar to how the German businesses buddied up to Hitler, better half a business than none at all.

Marcel Granier refused to cut a deal with Chavez and Chavez did not allow his license to be renewed. How legal as it? Legal on he surface in a country where the military, the executive, the legislative and the judicial powers all kowtow to Chavez. BTW, Chavez also nationalized the only private electric utility we had and the major telco. You might also have read about what has been happening to the foreign oil companies operating here.

The real question is why the students are protesting the closing of this business while they didn't protest the closing of other businesses. RCTV happens to be the major source of popular and free entertainment in Venezuela. All of a sudden all the soap operas are gone. Overnight all your favorite comedy shows are gone. All of a sudden they wake up to reality: This is a dictatorship and they want to Cubanize Venezuela. Think of this like you might think about the Boston Tea Party.

So what is different this time?

That the opposition is not the tired old political parties. It is a virgin force of young people who want to smell the roses. The speech at the National Assembly was absolutely spectacular. The way the students avoided the trap that the National Assembly set for them was incredibly masterful. The students had asked for the right to address the National Assembly. The Assembly granted the request but changed the rules, they organized a debate between the opposition students and the Bolivarian students. The opposition students refused the debate in the National Assembly. They told the Assembly that they would be most happy to debate but on their own terms: on the streets, in the barrios, in the universities, but not in the National Assembly.

Those of you who speak Spanish, I urge you to listen to the speech, it's on the index page of my website:

http://softwaretimes.com/

I have no idea where this will lead but the student body has been magnificent. Compared to the old opposition and compared to the people in government, their intellectual level, their smarts, is proving to be superior. There are a lot of Venezuelans in exile. All the old PDVSA professionals have gotten jobs all over the world. A great many journalists are living in exile to avoid being jailed (yes, this is a dictatorship). There is a web-radio in Miami where people can call in and I listen to it all the time. The mood has changed. While 3 and 4 years ago people were afraid for their lives and the lives of their children, now there is more defiance and less fear. Three or four years ago the opposition was mostly middle class even if all anti Chavez Venezuelans were victimized. Now everyone can see the situation more clearly. You are either with Chavez or you are going to have a very hard time.

To listen to the radionexx use Windows Media Player

mms://72.34.34.3/radionexx
mms://209.160.33.173/radionexx
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 09, 2007, 03:54:12 PM
Denny:

I found that very helpful in putting together data that for me was previously unconnected.  Thank you.

Marc
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on June 09, 2007, 07:37:11 PM
Rogt,

Is there ANY leftist totalitarian you aren't willing to defend? Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Castro? Anyone?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: milt on June 09, 2007, 08:19:17 PM
Rogt,

Is there ANY leftist totalitarian you aren't willing to defend? Mao, Stalin, Pol Pot, Castro? Anyone?

Sticking to the merits of the arguments, I see.

-milt
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on June 10, 2007, 06:39:17 PM
It's a simple question. What's your problem with me asking it?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: milt on June 11, 2007, 08:28:53 AM
It's a simple question. What's your problem with me asking it?

This particular thread is about Venezuela.

-milt
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on June 15, 2007, 11:31:17 PM
Getting back to what Denny (Captainccs) wrote, thank you very much for the first hand explanation.  Your recap of recent history is very helpful. 

My understanding and recollection is that the recall vote was going against Chavez 40-60 in exit polls but tht Chavez vote won by 60-40on the state count,a 40 point swing.  International observer Jimmy Carter declared the results good to go.  Then-Secretary of State Colin Powell quickly recognized the result. 

Curious what your take on that was and wondering if anyone has seen Powell express any second thoughts.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 16, 2007, 12:59:20 AM
Good question.  Denny?

On another front, I see that Chavez says he's buying 5 Soviet diesel subs?!? :-o
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on July 17, 2007, 10:16:44 AM
Chavez losing popularity:

http://www.miamiherald.com/583/story/170406.html

Proposals for the unlimited reelection of President Hugo Chávez, the possibility of establishing a Cuba-like political system and the ''violent'' clash with Washington are rejected by most Venezuelans, according to a new poll unveiled Friday.

The poll by Hinterlaces, a Caracas think tank that carries out surveys and analysis for private clients, also showed that Chávez's popularity has dropped 13 points since November, from 52 percent to 39 percent.

Hinterlaces' figures indicated that the average Venezuelan is increasingly rejecting Chavismo's ideological agenda in key areas such as the rights of private property and the country's shift toward Cuban-style socialism.

''More than a revolution, what Venezuela is living is a process of democratic maturation and the remodeling of its political culture,'' said Oscar Schemel, president of Hinterlaces, which correctly predicted Chávez's landslide reelection in December.

The political interests of today's Venezuelans are ''the opposite of extremist speeches'' not only by Chávez, but also by his radical opposition, Schemel added.

He said Chávez's radical stances ''seem to run counter to the key ideas and meanings of the sociopolitical culture of Venezuela'' and are generating resistance among Venezuelans.

The latest Hinterlaces poll, which consulted 990 people in five major Venezuelan cities in May and June, showed the following results:

• 63 percent rejected unlimited presidential reelection.

• 47 percent opposed the establishment of socialism.

• 85 percent opposed Cuban-style socialism.

• 86 percent rejected the idea that ``to be rich is bad.''

• 87 percent supported private property.

• 75 percent rejected the ''violent and rude'' confrontation with Washington.

• 81 percent said the country needs new leaders.

Since his December reelection the leftist Chávez has stepped up his efforts to move Venezuela toward ''21st century socialism'' and pushed for a constitutional change to allow unlimited presidential reelection.

Hinterlaces first asked respondents whether they supported unlimited reelection in February, obtaining a 61 percent negative response. Other polling companies have obtained similar results.

The rejection of Chávez's ideological agenda shown in the polls ''has been consistent in the nine years of Chávez government,'' said Carlos Escalante, director of the Miami-based Inter-American Center for Political Management.

Escalante added, however, that he found it paradoxical that ``people don't want to look like Cuba, and prefer private property and keeping their freedom, yet each day the positive evaluation of Chávez remains high.''

The poll's release came one day after the pro-Chávez president of the national legislature, Cilia Florez, attacked what she called an attempt to ''manipulate the proposal for presidential reelection,'' saying it was not for indefinite reelection but rather ''continuous'' reelection.

''If a president has been running a country correctly and the people are satisfied with that rule, we cannot take away their opportunity to reelect that president,'' Florez said at a news conference.

 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 07, 2007, 06:30:08 AM
The grave has been dug

This week oil experts agreed on one point: a favorable outcome of the 
crisis Venezuela’s state-owned oil company is going through is far 
from certain.

It looks as though the absence of trained technical and management 
staff, the lack of planning and the politicization of the business, 
added to widespread corruption, will push PDVSA into bankruptcy 
sooner rather than later.

The symptoms are already apparent: PDVSA is not meeting its 
production expectations, the refineries are in a calamitous state, a 
large number of wells have been shut down, there is a deficit of some 
120 drilling rigs, and production barely reaches 3,300,000 b/d 
(according to inflated official figures), a far cry from the 
production goal of 5,800,000 b/d.

Added to this is the fact that Venezuela is apparently on the 
threshold of an international lawsuit with ConocoPhillips and 
ExxonMobil, if the clear contradictions between statements by John 
Lowe, ConocoPhillips’ Exploration and Production Executive Vice-
president, and Energy and Oil Minister Rafael Ramírez are anything to 
go by.

This Wednesday Lowe stated that ConocoPhillips had agreed with the 
Venezuelan government that compensation for its shares in Petrozuata 
and Hamaca would be based on their “market value” and that 
negotiations were still being conducted to determine that “value.” 
Then, on August 30, Minister Ramírez declared that Venezuela would 
only pay compensation based on the “original book value.”

According to estimates by analysts with investment banks in New York, 
the difference between the two values is considerable. The “original 
book value” of the four upgraders is around $17 billion, whereas the 
“fair market value” would be in the order of $33 billion.

Although ExxonMobil has not said whether it has reached an agreement 
similar to ConocoPhillips’, it is to be assumed that it did.

ConocoPhillips and Exxon have already declared losses for the second 
quarter of some $5.25 billion (ConocoPhillips $4.5 billion and Exxon 
(Cerro Negro) $750 million). If these losses reflect the “original 
book value,” then the “market value” could be in the order of $10 
billion, at least. Venezuela does not have that amount available and 
what is most likely is that Chávez will not accept paying such a high 
sum to oil companies of the empire.

And to complicate things still further for PDVSA, the most important 
of its deals with China and Brazil are apparently falling through. 
What is more, Chávez’ promises to build refineries all over the place 
are on the way to becoming empty words owing to the lack of funds, 
unless he sells off other assets, Citgo for example, in order to be 
able to make good his promises.

Unfortunately, the only things that do seem to be functioning at 
PDVSA are communist proselytism led by Ramírez and corruption at the 
highest levels, which has been extensively reported by journalists 
who support the regime and revealed in the scandal of the briefcase 
with nearly $800,000 confiscated in Buenos Aires.

http://veneconomia.com/site/index.asp?idim=2

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 18, 2007, 06:16:18 AM

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297134,00.html
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Threatens to Take Over Private Schools

Monday, September 17, 2007
 
E-MAIL STORY
PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION
CARACAS, Venezuela — President Hugo Chavez threatened on Monday to take over any private schools refusing to submit to the oversight of his socialist government, a move some Venezuelans fear will impose leftist ideology in the classroom.
All Venezuelan schools, both public and private, must submit to state inspectors enforcing the new educational system. Those that refuse will be closed and nationalized, Chavez said.
A new curriculum will be phased in during this school year, and new textbooks are being developed to help educate "the new citizen," added Chavez's brother and education minister Adan Chavez in their televised ceremony on the first day of classes.
Just what the curriculum will include and how it will be applied to all Venezuelan schools and universities remains unclear.
But one college-level syllabus obtained by The Associated Press shows some premedical students already have a recommended reading list including Karl Marx's "Das Kapital" and Fidel Castro's speeches, alongside traditional subjects like biology and chemistry.
The syllabus also includes quotations from Chavez and urges students to learn about slain revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara and Colombian rebel chief Manuel Marulanda, whose leftist guerrillas are considered a terrorist group by Colombia, the U.S. and European Union.
/**/
Venezuelan officials defend the program at the Latin American Medical School — one in a handful of state-run colleges and universities that emphasize socialist ideology — as the new direction of Venezuelan higher education.
"We must train socially minded people to help the community, and that's why the revolution's socialist program is being implemented," said Zulay Campos, a member of a Bolivarian State Academic Commission that evaluates compliance with academic guidelines.
"If they attack us because we're indoctrinating, well yes, we're doing it, because those capitalist ideas that our young people have — and that have done so much damage to our people — must be eliminated," Campos said.
Now some critics worry that primary and secondary schoolchildren will be indoctrinated as well.
Chavez's efforts to spread ideology throughout society is "typical of communist regimes at the beginning" in Russia, China and Cuba — and is aimed at "imposing a sole, singular vision," sociologist Antonio Cova said.
But Adan Chavez said the goal is to develop "critical thinking," not to impose a single philosophy.
More than eight years after President Chavez was first elected, the curriculum at most Venezuelan schools remains largely unchanged, particularly in private schools commonly attended by middle- and upper-class children.
Anticipating criticism, Chavez noted that a state role in regulating education is internationally accepted in countries from Germany to the United States.
Chavez said all schools in Venezuela must comply with the "new Bolivarian educational system," named after South American liberation leader Simon Bolivar and Chavez's socialist movement.
Discussing the new curriculum, he said it would help students develop values of "cooperation and solidarity" while learning critical reflection, dialogue and volunteer work.
Previous Venezuelan educational systems carried their own ideology, Chavez said. Leafing through old texts from the 1970s during his speech, he pointed out how they referred to Venezuela's "discovery" by Europeans.
"They taught us to admire Christopher Columbus and Superman," Chavez said.
Education based on capitalist ideology has corrupted children's values, he said. "We want to create our own ideology collectively — creative, diverse." Chavez said Venezuelans — not Cubans as opponents suggest — have been drawing up the new curriculum, but added that Venezuela could always accept Cuban help in the future.
Venezuela has more than 160 universities and colleges, most of which maintain their independence. Leftist ideology is already part of the curriculum at seven different state universities. But encouraging students nationwide to read up on Guevara, Castro and Friedrich Engels' speech before Marx's tomb would be something new entirely.
About 20 of the 400 foreign pre-med students have dropped out of the Latin American Medical School near Caracas. Among them was Gabriel Gomez Guerrero, 22, of Colombia, who was shocked that the syllabus counts Marulanda among "important Latin American thinkers" to be studied. The head of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia is his government's public enemy No. 1.
"They aren't going to introduce that man to me as a 'Latin American thinker,'" Gomez said. "They may brainwash other people, but not me."
School director Sandra Moreno said nobody is being brainwashed — the idea is simply to provide a foundation in Latin American affairs. And Ana Montenegro, a program coordinator who helped create the syllabus, said it was a mistake to describe Marulanda that way, but that the course program will continue to evolve and improve.
Many of the remaining students describe themselves as socialists and say no one is pressuring them.
"They don't impose what we have to learn," said Roberto Leal, a 30-year-old Brazilian. "If we don't agree with something, we express our opinion."
/**/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2007, 10:49:14 AM
Venezuela: Security Takes a Backseat
stratfor
The new Italian ambassador to Venezuela made headlines this week after he put President Hugo Chavez on the spot by expressing concern about the country's poor security situation. The same day, Chavez also met with incoming U.S. Ambassador Patrick Duddy, who urged greater bilateral cooperation on combating drug traffickers operating in the country.

Given that Venezuela has a large Italian expatriate population and that approximately half of the drugs shipped through the country are destined for the United States, both Rome and Washington have a strong interest in Venezuela's security situation. The country's violent trends have little chance of reversing, however, unless the government makes a more serious effort to intervene.

Although Chavez rarely publicly discusses the country's soaring crime rates and official statistics on crime are closely guarded, the Venezuelan capital has become extremely violent. Indeed, recent estimates of its homicide rate -- if accurate -- would place Caracas among the most dangerous cities in the world. These estimates are speculative, however, since the Venezuelan government stopped releasing official homicide rates in 2003 -- after the number of killings reached nearly 12,000 countrywide that year. Unofficial estimates for 2006 put the number of homicides in Caracas alone at 6,000 -- more than 100 slayings per 100,000 inhabitants. (By comparison, in 2006 there were 47.3 slayings per 100,000 inhabitants in Detroit, the U.S. city with the highest homicide rate.)

And the homicide rate is just one of Venezuela's security problems. Since the government curtailed its cooperation with foreign governments on counternarcotics, South American drug traffickers face less police scrutiny in Venezuela than they do in other countries. Venezuela, for example, suspended its cooperation with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in 2005 after Caracas accused the agency of spying on behalf of the United States. International cooperation is crucial in dealing with issues such as drug trafficking, given that illegal shipments pass through multiple borders on their way from production to market.

Compounding the problems is the country's endemic corruption, which in the law enforcement realm extends from police on the street to the courts. In an October interview, Venezuelan Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez tried to downplay claims that the country's judicial system is incapable of effectively dealing with drug traffickers, though he acknowledged corruption among security forces, prosecutors and judges.

Security is not much better outside the capital, especially along Venezuela's extensive land border with Colombia, where guerrilla groups have been known to move freely between the two countries. The U.S. government, in fact, has warned Americans not to travel within a 50-mile area along the entire Venezuelan-Colombian border. Official corruption is a particular problem in this area as well, considering that one of the most notorious Venezuelan groups linked to Colombian guerrillas -- the Cartel of the Suns -- allegedly is run by Venezuelan National Guard generals. (The group's name comes from the insignia worn on the officers' uniforms.) According to DEA estimates, the group moves up to 5 tons of illegal drugs per month from Colombia into Venezuela. Venezuela has long been used as a transshipment hub for narcotics smuggling and as a gateway in the Americas for illegal aliens attempting to reach the United States from Asia and the Middle East.

In addition to drug trafficking, organized crime groups in Venezuela have found kidnapping to be an increasingly lucrative business. According to the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, more than 1,000 kidnappings were reported from August 2006 to August 2007, and at least 45 foreigners were kidnapped during the first eight months of 2007. This is a particular threat in a country where foreign energy companies have a large presence, though kidnapping gangs do not appear to target one business sector over another. Any company that likely carries kidnapping and recovery insurance on its employees is considered a choice target. Several high-profile kidnapping incidents in recent years have led to demonstrations by citizens demanding greater security. One of the most widely reported cases among Venezuela's Italian community -- and reportedly an incident that the Italian ambassador discussed with Chavez -- was the March 2006 abduction and killing of a prominent Italian businessman. The incident was followed just a few days later by the killing of three Canadian-Venezuelan children who had been kidnapped in February. The children were slain when their family was unable to pay the multimillion-dollar ransom demanded by the kidnappers.

There also is a political aspect to kidnapping cases, as the wealthy victims are often viewed as capitalists -- people considered at odds with the goals and ideals of Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution. Because of this, victims and their families often do not receive sympathetic treatment from the authorities when such crimes are reported.

So far, the Chavez government's efforts to counter the trends of violence throughout the country have been minimal. Investigation of such crimes has been characterized by the U.S. Embassy as "haphazard and ineffective." In the case of high-profile killings, authorities reportedly round up suspects quickly, but rarely produce evidence linking any of the detainees to the crime. Only a small percentage of criminals is ever tried and convicted. Moreover, violent crimes frequently occur during daylight hours and even in public areas such as Caracas' Maiquetía Airport and in popular tourist attractions, such as the Avila National Park.

Further complicating matters are reports that security forces and parts of the judicial system have become increasingly politicized as a result of the government's practice of keeping and promoting officials for their loyalty to Chavez's Bolivarian ideals rather than their interest in, or their ability to fight, crime. These politicized officials also have hesitated to root out police corruption or crack down on criminals in poor areas -- where most of them live and operate -- because such areas are bastions of Chavez supporters. Additionally, the recent crackdowns on student protesters suggest the government is heavily focused on using security forces to quell its opposition rather than to fight crime. In July, Chavez chided student groups protesting constitutional reforms aimed at consolidating his power, calling the students patsies of the United States. On Nov. 1, police dispersed student demonstrators with tear gas and water cannons. Should the protests continue, the government will dedicate even more of its security forces to this area.

Many of Venezuela's security problems are not unique in Latin America. Police corruption, drug trafficking and kidnapping are prevalent elsewhere, particularly in Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico. However, the government's weak response to date and its focus on suppressing any opposition suggest the security environment in Venezuela will continue to deteriorate.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 09, 2007, 09:59:15 AM
Venezuela: Protests, Chavez and the Constitutional Referendum
Summary

Venezuelan college students continued their protests Nov. 8 despite armed attacks on protesters at various universities ahead of a controversial referendum Dec. 2. Though the protests show little sign of letting up and enjoy support from the Roman Catholic Church and at least some military elements, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is in a good position to deal with the threat to his rule.

Analysis

University students in Caracas protested Nov. 8 against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, just one day after masked gunmen attacked students in the Venezuelan capital returning from a demonstration, injuring at least eight people. The Central University of Venezuela (UCV) would not confirm whether anyone had died. Five students were also injured during protests by plainclothes gunmen in the northwestern city of Barquisimeto on Nov. 7. The Nov. 7 shootings were not the first of their kind. At least one female student died and two others were seriously injured at the University of Zulia on Nov. 2 when armed men fired from a moving vehicle upon a group of protesting students. A deadly shooting also occurred Nov. 2 at the University of Lara, according to an unconfirmed report.

Chavista elements aiming to quell student protests through intimidation tactics likely carried out these attacks. And though the protests probably will continue and could appeal to a wider audience, Chavez has had a long time to prepare for just this sort of situation.

The tactics have met with varying levels of success. While some major student groups like the Federation of Student Centers at UCV have called off protest marches in the interest of protecting students in the wake of the shootings, others have continued to hold marches and to face off with government troops.

Overall, the protests against Chavez still show little sign of easing as the country heads towards an extremely controversial Dec. 2 referendum. At stake are a slew of constitutional reforms that would reinforce Chavez's grip on power, including provisions for the elimination of presidential term limits, for curbs on press freedoms and for extraordinary arrests during emergency rule in the name of the "Bolivarian Revolution."

Though Chavez's constitutional reform campaign has galvanized the country's university students, prompting them to take to the streets despite threats of violence, the protest movement still lacks enough heft to challenge the Chavez regime seriously. For regime change to take place in Caracas, the student activists need the support of the Roman Catholic Church and the poor -- who comprise a majority in Venezuela -- to break through Chavez's lines of defense. The church has joined the students. But the impoverished masses still lack an incentive to join the opposition -- and with oil prices soaring, Chavez has enough cash to buy their political support.

That leaves the military's loyalties as the remaining question. Some sparks from the military establishment flew over Chavez's reforms Nov. 6 when retired Defense Minister Gen. Raul Isaias Baduel called on Venezuelans to vote "no" to the Dec. 2 referendum. Chavez subsequently branded Baduel a traitor. Baduel is an old friend of Chavez who helped restore the Venezuelan president to power after a brief coup in 2002. For a member of Chavez's inner circle to break so publicly with the Venezuelan leader is a worrying sign for Chavez's ability to hold things together. But Chavez has long prepared for such eventualities with the buildup of his personal militias, and so far it does not look as if Baduel has enough support within the military to turn the tide against Chavez.
stratfor
Title: Anti-Globalization Global Crime Haven
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on November 14, 2007, 05:59:04 AM
Hugo Chavez's criminal paradise

Under the anti-globalization president, Venezuela has become a haven for global crime.
By Moises Naim
November 10, 2007
While President Hugo Chavez has been molding Venezuela into his personal socialist vision, other transformations -- less visible but equally profound -- have taken hold in the country.

Venezuela has become a major hub for international crime syndicates. What attracts them is not the local market; what they really love are the excellent conditions Venezuela offers to anyone in charge of managing a global criminal network.

A nation at the crossroads of South America, the Caribbean, North America and Europe, Venezuela's location is ideal. Borders? Long, scantly populated and porous. Financial system? Large and with easy-to-evade governmental controls. Telecommunications, ports and airports? The best that oil money can buy. U.S. influence? Nil. Corrupt politicians, cops, judges and military officers? Absolutely: Transparency International ranked Venezuela a shameful 162 out of 179 counties on its corruption perception index. Chavez's demonstrated interest in confronting criminal networks during his eight years in power? Not much.

While this situation has so far been rather invisible to the rest of the world, it is patently clear to those in charge of fighting transnational crime. Anti-trafficking officials in Europe, the United States, Asia and other Latin American countries are paying unprecedented attention to Venezuela. These officials are not particularly interested in Venezuelan politics or in Chavez's policies. All they care about is that the tentacles of these global criminal networks are spreading from Venezuela into their countries with enormous power and at great speed.

The numbers speak volumes: About 75 tons of cocaine left Venezuela in 2003; it is estimated that 276 tons will leave the country this year. Before, the main destination was the United States; now, Europe is increasingly the target. Italy and Spain are two new important and lucrative end-user markets, and earning in euros is undeniably better than getting paid in dollars these days.

A senior Dutch police officer told me that he and his European colleagues are spending more time in Caracas than in Bogota, Colombia, and that the heads of many of the major criminal cartels now operate with impunity, and effectiveness, from Venezuela. The cartel bosses aren't exclusively Colombians -- there are Asians (especially Chinese) and Europeans too. Caracas' most posh neighborhoods are home to important kingpins from around the world, including some from Belarus, a country that Chavez notably has visited several times.

Venezuela appears near the top of lists compiled by the anti-money-laundering authorities as well. Money moves in and out, and not just through electronic inter-bank transfers. The combination of private jets, suitcases full of cash and diplomatic immunity has opened up new possibilities. Recently, one Venezuelan member of the boliburguesía -- the new mega-rich -- was caught carrying at least one suitcase full of money. He was discovered by a customs officer in Buenos Aires but not arrested. Turns out he was traveling on an executive jet with senior members of the government of Argentina's president, Nestor Kirchner.

In Uruguay, an outraged legislator dropped this bombshell a few weeks ago: A group of Venezuelans had engineered the sale of Iranian arms and munitions to his country, using Venezuelan companies as a cover to bypass the U.N. embargo on Iran's arms trade. Likewise, the guerrillas in Colombia seem to have no trouble acquiring weapons -- many of which come through Venezuela-based arms dealers.

Diamond traders are doing equally well. "Venezuela is allowing massive smuggling of diamonds," stated a recent report by Global Witness and Partnership Africa, two respected nongovernmental organizations. They recommended that Venezuela be expelled from the Kimberley Process, the U.N.-sponsored mechanism designed to combat the smuggling of "blood diamonds" -- the gems sold to fund military conflicts around the world.

And as if diamonds, guns, drugs and tainted money weren't enough, human traffickers have made their way to Venezuela as well. The country has become a haven for human traffickers because its laws offer so little protection to their victims, especially women. It is also a major stopover for illegal immigrants from China, the Middle East and other parts of Latin America who are on their way elsewhere. They can obtain a Venezuelan passport in a matter of hours.

The great paradox of this terrible story is that, despite Chavez's constant denunciations of globalization, he hasn't protected Venezuela from its worst consequences. His nation has been globalized -- by criminal gangs. And they import and export corruption, crime and death. And that may be more critical in shaping Venezuela's future than any of Chavez's political experiments.

Moises Naim is the editor of Foreign Policy magazine and the author of "Illicit: How Smugglers, Traffickers and Copycats Are Hijacking the Global Economy."

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-naim10nov10,0,1470504.story?coll=la-opinion-center
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on November 25, 2007, 10:58:37 AM
Referendum date is Dec. 2.  Yes vote will enact make 69 revisions to Venezuela charter that expand the power of Chavez, including unlimited re-election.  Chavez says: Only a 'Traitor' Will Vote No: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8T3M1P00&show_article=1

Reuters reports independent poll that has the referendum down by 49% 'traitors to 39% Chavez enablers: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSN2333983120071124?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=22&sp=true
Links courtesy of Drudge Report.  I really haven't seen this covered yet in the mainstream media.  Chavez attempting to become a permanent leader with dictator powers and cheating in elections is hardly news in their opinion.
--
I predict the ten point no-vote lead is not good enough.  In a previous referendum independent reports had Chavez losing by 60-40% in the exit polls but the official Chavez voting machines tallied it up as a Chavez win at 60-40%, so exit polls were off by down 20 to up 20 - a 40% swing.  "International observer" Jimmy Carter instantly verified the results and then-Secretary of State Colin Powell quickly gave it the U.S. stamp of approval.  Oh well.
Title: Military fires warning shot across Chavez's bow
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 29, 2007, 02:58:41 PM
stratfor

VENEZUELA: Venezuela's armed forces might join citizens in opposing President Hugo Chavez's constitutional changes if their approval in a Dec. 3 referendum causes violence, Bloomberg reported, citing an interview with retired Venezuelan army officer Joel Acosta Chirinos published by Brazil's O Globo newspaper. Chirinos added that the possibility of the armed forces taking up arms cannot be ruled out.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 04, 2008, 04:30:01 AM
Desperado
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
February 4, 2008; Page A14

In 1981, Argentine inflation topped 130%, and by the early months of 1982 the situation was rapidly deteriorating. A web of price controls designed to compensate for monetary mischief at the central bank only made things worse. Confidence had collapsed and civil unrest was growing.

The military government's decision to lay claim to Britain's South Georgia Island on March 19, 1982, and later the Falklands, was dictator Leopoldo Galtieri's last-ditch effort to boost the nation's sense of strength, and to distract it from the reality that it was caught in an economic maelstrom.

 
Fast forward to 2008 and Venezuela, where the parallels cannot be ignored. The military government of President Hugo Chávez is engaging in provocations against a foreign power that would seem to have little purpose other than getting news of the crumbling economy off the front pages and ginning up nationalism.

In a speech before the national assembly last month, Mr. Chávez dropped a bombshell, proclaiming that Venezuela now recognizes the Colombian rebel group known as the FARC as a legitimate political actor. He went on to ask that European and South American governments remove the group from their terrorist lists. A day earlier his special envoy for FARC relations went public with his own fondness for the Colombian rebels, and with the news that the Venezuelan government stands ready to help them.

This was more than Mr. Chávez playing footsie with the FARC, which he has long been doing. This was a statement of official support for a band of outlaws who seek the destruction of the Colombian democracy. The news shook both nations. It suggested that Colombia is not only at war with the rebels, but also with a neighboring state.

Mr. Chávez probably doesn't really want war with the militarily superior Colombia anymore than Galtieri wanted to battle it out with Britain. But by poking his neighbor in the eye, he was undoubtedly hoping for some kind of a reaction, to which Venezuela naturally would be obliged to respond. Amid an escalation of tensions between the two countries, a nationalist outcry to defend Venezuelan honor might dwarf the many troubles at home.

Colombia's president didn't take the bait. Instead of getting in a spitting match with Venezuela, Álavaro Uribe went to Europe shortly after Mr. Chávez's FARC speech to shore up support for his anti-terrorist agenda. He came home with backing from E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and even Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, who is notorious for his admiration of Latin American leftists. Mr. Chávez thus suffered yet another humiliation, only six weeks after he lost his bid to rewrite the country's constitution.

Hubris aside, Mr. Chávez had to know that his defense of the FARC was a long shot. But desperate times call for desperate measures. As the deterioration of the Venezuelan economy accelerates, Mr. Chávez is fast becoming a desperado with no better idea of how to get out of his jam than did Galtieri.

Central to his troubling circumstances is inflation. With Venezuelan crude oil around $80 per barrel, the local currency known as the bolivar ought to be strong. But the central bank has lost its independence and now acts as an arm of the Chávez government. As such it has shown little interest in defending the value of the currency.

Instead, it uses the gusher of oil dollars coming into the country as a reason to print up new bolivars to be put into circulation through government spending. This has pushed up demand and sent prices skyrocketing.

Just what Venezuelan inflation is now is anybody's guess. The government figure for 2007 is 22.5% but that number is derived from a basket of goods that includes price-controlled items, which are difficult to actually buy. In real life, when Venezuelans go shopping they have to pay market prices if they want to come home with the goods. This means that the cost of living is higher than the official rate.

Price controls haven't held down inflation but they have produced shortages of the goods they cover. Milk, rice, cooking oil, chicken, beef, pork, sugar, black beans and eggs are all hard to find and Venezuelans say that grocery shopping now requires stops at five or six stores. The most reliable sources of price-controlled items are street vendors, who charge two and three times the legal limit but tend to have stock.

Even Mr. Chávez recognizes that the shortages are real and not about to go away. And despite what appears to be a primitive understanding of economics, he may even have figured out the connection between prices and supply. This would explain why, as dire milk shortages became undeniable in recent months, he finally decreed an increase in the regulated price.

But don't hold your breath for further signs of enlightenment. Control of the oil industry has been the main reason Mr. Chávez has been able to squelch democracy. His own warped logic suggests that he needs to control other key sectors if he wants to keep his grip on power. If he can strangle the private sector, he can starve his adversaries.

This is why he is promoting government-owned food processors and has put a full-court press on private-sector agribusiness. Price controls now apply not only to the retail market but also to business transactions. This is designed to stop, for example, dairy farms from diverting raw milk to the production of cheese and yogurt, which have no price controls. Anyone caught violating price controls or selling products across the border in Colombia risks expropriation.

All of this is being policed by the army. With its monopoly on the use of force, the government can indeed destroy the private sector. But as Galtieri found out, it cannot decree that supply meets demand. As shortages become more acute, don't be surprised to see the Venezuelan desperado picking more fights.

WSJ
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 07, 2008, 05:42:55 PM

Exxon to freeze $12B in Venezuelan assetsHigh Court of England grants 
U.S. oil company the right to freeze assets belonging to the 
country's recently nationalized oil company.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) -- ExxonMobil Corp. has secured court orders 
to freeze more than $12 billion in worldwide assets of Venezuela's 
state-owned oil company, as it prepares to dispute the 
nationalization of a multibillion-dollar oil project.

The move limits Petroleos de Venezuela's room to maneuver as it fends 
off challenges from major Western oil companies over President Hugo 
Chavez's 2007 decision to nationalize four heavy oil projects in the 
Orinoco Basin, one of the richest oil deposits in the world.

Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (COP, Fortune 500) opted 
to walk away from the contracts rather than stay on in a minority 
role. Both have filed arbitration proceedings with the World Bank 
seeking compensation and Conoco "continues to discuss an amicable 
resolution specific to the assets that were expropriated in 
Venezuela," Conoco spokesman Bill Tanner said.

ExxonMobil has so far been the most aggressive in fighting back. The 
Irving, Texas-based oil major's legal action essentially seeks to 
ring-fence Venezuelan assets ahead of any decision by the arbitration 
panel.

According to documents filed last month in the U.S. District Court in 
Manhattan, Exxon Mobil has secured an "order of attachment" on about 
$300 million in cash held by PdVSA. A hearing to confirm the order is 
scheduled in New York for Feb. 13. Exxon also filed documents with 
the New York court showing it had secured a freeze on $12 billion on 
PdVSA's worldwide assets from a U.K. court.

"On Jan. 24, the High Court of England and Wales was satisfied that 
there is a real risk that PdVSA will dissipate its assets and 
accordingly entered a Worldwide Freezing Order ex parte," Exxon said 
in the filing to the New York court. The order prohibits PdVSA from 
"disposing of its assets worldwide up to a value of $12 billion 
whether directly or indirectly held."

Further hearings on the $12 billion freeze are scheduled on Feb. 22, 
according to Exxon's filing.

In a statement, Exxon Mobil spokesperson Margaret Ross confirmed the 
court filings. She added that the company "has obtained attachment 
orders from courts in the Netherlands and Netherlands Antilles 
against PdVSA assets in each of these jurisdictions up to $12 
billion." Exxon said the orders are subject to further review by the 
courts. "We will not comment further on legal proceedings," she said.

In a filing, PdVSA disputed the need for a freeze. In a Jan. 24 
response disputing orders of attachment from Dec. 27 and Jan. 8, 
PdVSA said Exxon Mobil "has failed to sustain its burden of 
establishing that any arbitration award it obtains may be rendered 
ineffectual without provisional relief." A PdVSA spokesman declined 
to comment.

Exxon's move signals an aggressive response to the trend of resource-
rich countries flexing their muscle over the large oil majors. Since 
oil prices began skyrocketing earlier in the decade, oil-producing 
nations have grown bolder in their dealings with publicly traded 
companies active on their territories by demanding larger stakes in 
existing projects and raising taxes.

Venezuela will pay two European oil companies that were partners in 
other Orinoco heavy oil projects less than half the estimated market 
value of their stakes, according to a copy of the compensation 
agreement reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires.

That agreement offers an inkling of what ExxonMobil and 
ConocoPhillips could be expecting as they carry on compensation talks 
with PdVSA.

Exxon shatters profit records
Title: Venezuela troops to Colombian border
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 03, 2008, 08:29:49 AM
Venezuela: Chavez Asks for Troops at the Colombian Border
Stratfor Today » March 3, 2008 | 0019 GMT

ORLANDO SIERRA/AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelan President Hugo ChavezSummary
After Colombia’s cross-border raid into Ecuador on March 1 that resulted in the death of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s second-in-command, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez warned March 2 that if Colombia launched any such action on Venezuelan soil, it would be cause for war. Chavez then closed the Venezuelan Embassy in Bogota and ordered 10 battalions to the Venezuelan-Colombian border. The Venezuelan military is no match for Colombia’s larger, better-funded and more experienced forces.

Analysis
Following a March 1 Colombian cross-border raid into Ecuador that resulted in the death of the No. 2 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) commander, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on March 2 warned Bogota against launching any similar operation on Venezuelan soil. The same day, during his weekly radio address, Chavez announced that he would be closing the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota. He added that he had asked his defense minister to send 10 battalions — including tank battalions and military aviation — to the Venezuelan-Colombian border.

Venezuela’s armored formations (with tanks that include a smattering of old French AMX and British Scorpion designs) are based on the outskirts of Caracas, but an infantry brigade is based at San Cristobal near an important border crossing, and another at Maracaibo. Some tanks appear to be regularly stationed on the border. Unless this move has been premeditated, it would likely take several days — at the very least — to get an armored unit stationed outside Caracas spun up and on the road toward the border.

This road is the one most capable of sustaining heavy logistical trains from the capital. In fact, except for the northernmost 300 miles, the border is covered by dense rainforest and does not appear to have particularly heavy transportation infrastructure. The roads from Caracas to San Cristobal and Maracaibo appear to be the path of least resistance and thus, logistically speaking, are the paths a military mobilization is likely to take.

Much of this northern sector of the border runs along a mountain ridgeline, so while there is decent road infrastructure to get there, it would literally be an uphill battle for Venezuelan forces to move across the border there, as they would be ceding the high ground to Colombia.

Further north along the coast, a major road crosses flat coastal lowlands above Maracaibo, which offers Venezuelan troops the option of attempting to cut off the majority of the low-lying La Guajira peninsula — though there does not appear to be much of value there. Beyond the La Guajira Department lies the Magdalena Department, which contains Colombia’s highest peak, the 18,000-foot Pico Cristobal Colon.

Meanwhile, there is the very serious issue that the Venezuelan military is unpracticed at the fine art of logistics and is not known for its acumen for maintaining vehicles in depot, much less those that are deployed. Stratfor is skeptical of Venezuela’s ability to project and sustain forces meaningfully beyond its borders, especially regularly organized units and the tank battalions Chavez has requested.

Colombia’s military is larger, better funded and more operationally experienced — each by a factor of 10 — than Venezuela’s. U.S. funding and the prosecution of the counternarcotics war have given Colombia one of the most noteworthy military machines in the region. In addition, Bogota’s military is well-disposed on its side of the border to counter any offensive move by Caracas. Though Venezuelan forces moving quickly might be able to achieve some short-lived localized superiority, there is little to suggest that they would be capable of consolidating that gain before Colombia’s military came down upon them.

Thus, the metrics of a Chavez on the warpath are not thus far holding up to scrutiny. But Stratfor continues to monitor the situation closely. The Venezuelan president has been losing ground domestically of late and no doubt could benefit from stirring up some nationalist sentiment.

Meanwhile, Stratfor will be watching the movement of Venezuelan troops to see whether 10 battalions are moved to reinforce the ones already on the border and, if so, how quickly. Should these reinforcements — especially armored battalions from Caracas — arrive in short order, it would suggest that Chavez’s announcement was premeditated, rather than an off-the-cuff reaction to the March 1 FARC raid.

And there is always the outlying concern that Chavez’s cultivation of relations with FARC was not because he wanted leverage over the organization for solely political purposes, but because he might attempt to use them as a militant proxy.

Title: Chavez's War Drums
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 04, 2008, 07:17:49 AM
Chávez's 'War' Drums
March 4, 2008; Page A16
Colombia's military scored a major antiterror victory this weekend by killing the second in command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and 16 other FARC guerrillas. Venezuelan President and FARC ally Hugo Chávez has reacted by threatening war against Bogotá. But the real news is that the raid produced a laptop computer belonging to the expired comandante that reveals some of Mr. Chávez's secrets.

The raid that killed FARC big Raúl Reyes shocked the terrorists because it happened in Ecuador -- about a mile across the border from Colombia. The guerrillas are used to operating inside Colombia, only to escape to safe havens in Ecuador and Venezuela when Colombia's military is in hot pursuit. This time Colombian officers kept going, and for legitimate reasons of self-defense. (We doubt the U.S. would stop its troops at the border if terrorists were bombing sites in Texas from havens in Mexico.)

 
AP 
Mr. Chávez rushed to insist that Ecuador's sovereignty had been violated, even before Ecuador did. On his weekly television show on Sunday, the Venezuelan bully called the death of Reyes a "cowardly assassination" and observed a moment of silence. He closed the Venezuelan embassy in Bogotá, ordered 10 battalions with tanks to the Colombian border, and warned of war if the Colombian army staged a similar raid inside Venezuela.

Such a conventional war isn't likely. Colombia today has a superior military force, thanks in part to Mr. Chávez's purge of his own officer corp as a way to minimize risks of a coup d'etat against him. The war bluster is especially phony because Mr. Chavez is already waging his own guerrilla campaign against Colombia through his support for the FARC. The FARC's "foreign minister," Rodrigo Granda, was nabbed three years ago by bounty hunters in Caracas, where he was living comfortably, and a former Venezuelan military officer told us years ago that the army was instructed not to pursue the FARC in the Venezuelan jungle.

What may really have upset Mr. Chávez is the capture of Reyes's laptop. According to Colombia's top police official, General Oscar Naranjo, the computer contains evidence supporting the claim that the FARC is working with Mr. Chávez. General Naranjo said Monday that Reyes's laptop records showed that Venezuela may have paid $300 million to the FARC in exchange for its recent release of six civilian hostages. Mr. Chávez had spun those releases as a triumph of his personal mediation.

General Naranjo said the laptop also contains documents showing that the FARC was seeking to buy 50 kilos of uranium, and the Colombian newspaper El Tiempo has reported that the records revealed the sale of 700 kilograms of cocaine valued at $1.5 million. The general added that the military found a thank-you note from Mr. Chávez to the FARC for some $150,000 that the rebels had sent him when he was in prison for his attempted coup d'etat in 1992.

Ecuador, an ally of Mr. Chávez, was slow to express outrage at the Colombian raid but eventually came around. Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa said that the rebels were "bombed and massacred as they slept, using precision technology." He is right about that -- which is why the FARC's friends are so angry.

WSJ
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 05, 2008, 08:12:19 AM
Venezuela is moving what its military commander calls 10 tactical battalions to the Colombian border, especially toward the Venezuelan states of Zulia, Tachira and Apure, El Universal reported March 5, citing Gen. Jesus Gregorio Gonzalez Gonzalez, chief of the armed forces’ strategic command. The battalions comprise equipment and personnel from the navy, air force and national guard. Gonzalez said about 90 percent of the units President Hugo Chavez requested March 3 had already been mobilized.

stratfor
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 17, 2008, 03:23:12 AM
Student Power
By MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY
March 17, 2008; Page A16

At the tender age of 23 years, Yon Goicoechea is arguably President Hugo Chávez's worst nightmare.

Mr. Goicoechea is the retiring secretary general of the university students' movement in Venezuela. Under his leadership, hundreds of thousands of young people have come together to confront the strongman's unchecked power. It is the first time in a decade of Chávez rule that a countervailing force, legitimate in the eyes of society, has successfully managed to challenge the president's authority.

The students' first master stroke came in the spring of last year, when they launched protests against the government's decision to strip a television station of its license. The license was not restored but the group was energized. In June it began six months of demonstrations -- one with as many as 200,000 people -- to build opposition to a referendum on a constitutional rewrite that would have given Mr. Chávez dictatorial powers. When Mr. Chávez was defeated in the referendum, many observers attributed it to those marches and to student oversight at the polls, which reduced voter fraud.

Yet in an interview with me in Washington last week, the baby-faced Mr. Goicoechea, slumped on a sofa in blue jeans and a rumpled shirt, insisted that the shifting political winds have little to do with him. "We have generated a consciousness in the youth that doesn't depend on me. I could be dead or living in another county and it would go on. We have already won the future."

The revelation two weeks ago, that Mr. Chávez is working with the Colombian terrorists known as the FARC, sent chills up the spines of democrats throughout the hemisphere. Yet Mr. Chávez is likely to remain in power until Venezuelans themselves decide he should go. That is probably not going to happen until the electorate is offered something other than going back to the corrupt rule that existed before Mr. Chávez came to power. This is why Mr. Goicoechea, despite the self-effacing manner, attracts so much attention from his compatriots.

Mr. Chávez won the presidency in 1998 largely because Venezuelans were fed up with the ruling political and economic elite. Over 40 years of so-called democracy, the traditional parties had manipulated the law to grant themselves privilege and loot state coffers. When voters gambled on Mr. Chávez, it seems to have been more about rejecting the status quo than embracing the fiery newcomer.

No one understands this reality better than Mr. Goicoechea. He agrees that the country needs a new direction. "The chavistas are not wrong when they complain about exclusion," he told me. "To deny that these problems exist is to deny that there is a President Chávez, and to deny that he is a product of what came before him."

This may seem obvious, but until now it has not been the language of most of the Venezuelan opposition. Instead, the political debate largely has been a screaming match about power. Mr. Goicoechea takes a different stance, stressing reconciliation. He speaks about understanding the grievances of the disenfranchised, and looking for common ground that can give rise to solutions. The student leader says that two ideals hold his movement together: liberty and democracy, both of which he says have been absent in Venezuela for a long time. "Populism is not democracy."

I ask him if he wants to restore the country's institutions. "No, we want to build institutions. To say that we are restoring institutions would be to say that we had democracy before President Chávez, and I don't think so. We may have had an independent Supreme Court, but the poor had no access."

Mr. Goicoechea sees the current state of affairs as a continuation of the past, with different players. "Mr. Chávez says that his government serves the lower-income classes, but the reality is that the system still only serves those in the middle and high-income classes." That resonates with people.

Ensuring access to legal institutions, so that all Venezuelans are guaranteed the protections of the state, is for Mr. Goicoechea the path to "social justice." As an example he cites Petare, a notoriously poor Caracas barrio. "Private property rights protection does not exist there," he says. "No one owns their own land, even though the laws say that you earn that right if you live there for a certain number of years. We will have a true revolution in Venezuela when we have strong, liberal institutions that defend the rights of the people."

It is perhaps a sign of Mr. Goicoechea's effectiveness that he has received "all kinds of threats" against himself and his family. Last year he and a group of students were the targets of a small explosion set off at a public forum. At the same event, an attendee who disagreed with his ideas snuck up behind him and, when he turned around, punched him in the nose. "It's not important that they broke my nose," he says, but that the incident highlights the problem of intolerance. He says that his high profile mostly protects him, but ordinary people don't enjoy such protection. For them, violence and intimidation mean they cannot express themselves.

This is why the student movement is so important. It doesn't pretend to provide a political alternative, but its critical mass and organization now give voice to many who had come to fear expressing dissent under chavismo. This is a crucial step toward what many young Venezuelans hope will some day be a free society.

So what's next on the students' agenda? One issue they will raise this year is the government's ruling that disqualifies some 400 Venezuelans -- adversaries of chavismo -- from running for office in the November elections. This, Mr. Goicoechea points out, is a violation of the political rights of all Venezuelans. He insists that the students are not trying to defeat the president, and that they respect his office. "But the president of Venezuela is not more than me. He must respect that we are citizens too."

WSJ
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 21, 2008, 07:16:35 AM
Venezuela: The United States Turns the Screws
Stratfor Today » June 19, 2008 | 2236 GMT

EVARISTO SA/AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department on June 17 accused a Venezuelan diplomat and head of the Caracas-based Shia Islamic Center of giving Hezbollah financial support. The United States, which is targeting other Venezuelan nationals suspected of involvement with Hezbollah, is working to increase the pressure on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who is already weakening under the weight of domestic problems.

Analysis
The U.S. Treasury Department on June 17 accused Ghazi Nasr al-Din, a Venezuelan diplomat and president of a Caracas-based Shia Islamic center, of giving financial assistance to Hezbollah. The United States has also targeted Fawzi Kanan and two Venezuelan-based travel agencies that he allegedly owns or controls. Although the United States has made accusations of involvement with Hezbollah before, in taking the step to target Venezuelan nationals, the United States is ramping up pressure on already-weakened Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

The most recent set of accusations against Chavez’s government were released by U.S.-based Venezuelan reporter Patricia Poleo in a report that gave detailed accounts of Hezbollah, al Qaeda and other Arab movements in Venezuela. The report alleged that Venezuela is hosting at least five camps in various parts of the country where Venezuelan and Lebanese Hezbollah members learn to use munitions, and that those members plan to use Venezuela as a launching point for attacks on the United States. The report is suspiciously detailed in its descriptions of alleged terrorist training activities in Venezuela’s jungles. The information would have been very hard to come by without the aid of a sophisticated intelligence agency.

Washington has long been concerned about security threats originating in Venezuela. A well-known transit point for illegal drugs and arms, Venezuela also poses a serious risk to U.S. security because of its lax visa regulations and rampant corruption. Furthermore, Venezuela has been the most significant port of entry for illegal immigrants from the Eastern Hemisphere since before Chavez took control of the country.

Although Stratfor has no direct evidence that Hezbollah is operating in Venezuela, it would not be much of a surprise. In fact, Venezuela’s close relationship with Iran makes it almost inevitable. Most of Venezuela’s “joint” programs with Iran — such as a recently announced joint bank — make little sense because, depending on the project, Venezuela and Iran lack the cash, technology and/or organic market to launch them. Both countries are exporters of oil, with very little other economic strength, so trading between the two is largely superfluous. But helping Iran by supporting Hezbollah only requires some land in the jungle and lax security with passports — two things Venezuela has in spades.

What Venezuela would get out of such a partnership is not entirely clear. A core part of Chavez’s domestic security strategy has been to develop local militias that he can call on to support him in case the Venezuelan military turns against him. But harboring terrorist training camps in one’s backyard is like painting a big bullseye on one’s country and inviting the U.S. Air Force to take their best shot. But it is possible Iran is worth the risk, whether it is able to offer money or political favors in return.

Whether or not it is true that Venezuela is helping Hezbollah, the possibility for such cooperation has existed for several years. But the timing of this asset seizure poses some interesting possibilities, as it coincides with some dramatic shifts in Chavez’s behavior. These shifts include an apparent decision to deny public support to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and a move to revise a key intelligence law that would have strengthened his authoritarian control over Venezuela.

Chavez’s support of the FARC has been unpopular in Venezuela; in an April poll by Venezuelan polling firm Datanalisis, more than 70 percent of Venezuelans expressed disapproval of the FARC. This fact no doubt played a large part in his decision to reverse support for the group. With support for a second terrorist organization coming to light, Chavez’s credibility will only suffer more.

At the same time, Chavez is experiencing serious challenges on other fronts.

Inflation in Venezuela is skyrocketing, in part because of monetary inflation partially driven by massive government spending. Coupled with rising global food prices, the inflation has made life measurably harder for Venezuelans (especially poor Venezuelans), and dissatisfaction with Chavez’s policies is increasing.

Furthermore, Chavez’s social programs that service his support base rely on funding from Venezuelan state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) — and things are not looking so good for PDVSA. Burdened with the financial responsibilities of the entire state, the company is at risk of not being able to maintain its oil production, much less increase it to meet rising fiscal needs. And all this is with oil at $130 per barrel; any price drop and Chavez immediately will have to choose who not to give subsidies to.

Demands on PDVSA will not slacken soon, either. With local elections approaching, Chavez is under pressure to bring his party — the United Socialist Party of Venezuela — under his control. Designed to unite all leftist parties in Venezuela under one banner, the party is not as united as Chavez would like it to be. The upcoming November elections have exposed deep disagreements among party members and have provoked Chavez to go so far as to kick prominent figures out of the party. The elections will test his ability to hold the country together, and Chavez will need all the help he can get from his costly social programs to secure public support.

The bottom line is that Chavez is vulnerable like never before. With food prices soaring, local elections approaching and criticism of his policies mounting, the implication that Chavez’s government is aiding a second terrorist organization is well-timed to take advantage of his already-declining popularity.

The kind of moves the United States is making to undermine Chavez’s popular support are well in line with Stratfor’s projection that outside forces — including the United States — are supporting the unity of the Venezuelan opposition. What remains to be seen is where exactly the break point is for Chavez’s supporters, and whether or not the military will support Chavez in the face of a concerted attempt by the opposition to throw a revolution.
Title: WSJ: the former Mrs. Chavez
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 29, 2008, 08:33:19 AM
Political Diary
June 26, 2008
Chávez Meets His Match
It's not been a good month for Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez. He had to do an about-face and call on the Marxist guerrilla group FARC to stop trying to overthrow the government of neighboring Colombia, lay down its arms and release its 700 hostages. But that head fake came only after evidence surfaced that Mr. Chávez had actually offered FARC leaders $300 million to support their terrorist operations and had even given them their own nameplate on an office in Venezuela's Pentagon.

 
Now Mr. Chávez has trouble on the domestic front. Marisabel Rodríguez, the former first lady of Venezuela whom Mr. Chávez divorced in 2004, announced she will run for mayor of one of Venezuela's most important cities in November local elections. She will run as an opposition candidate because she wants to "change the face and way of doing politics in this city and this country," she told reporters.

The candidacy of Ms. Rodríguez, a public relations executive, will no doubt revive stories about the couple's messy divorce. She is apparently a past master at psychological warfare against her ex-husband. "Marisabel doesn't hesitate to talk about Chávez on TV while holding their daughter, and that is the kind of tactic the opposition likes because to fight a media figure like Chávez you need to shock people in some way," says Arturo Serrano, a political scientist, told Britain's Guardian newspaper.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 05, 2008, 10:35:45 AM
Venezuela: The Significance of Russian Flankers
Stratfor Today » August 4, 2008 | 2126 GMT

ALEX GUZMAN/AFP/Getty Images
Russian Su-30MK “Flankers” conduct a demonstration in Venezuela in 2006Summary
Russia has completed delivery of two dozen Russian-built Sukhoi “Flanker” fighter jets to Venezuela, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Aug. 3. One of the earliest and most prominent deliveries in connection with a series of Russian arms deals that now amount to some $4.4 billion since 2003, these planes could affect the regional military dynamic.

Analysis
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the completion of delivery of two dozen Sukhoi “Flanker” fighter jets Aug. 3. Though not the newest Sukhoi model, the Su-30MK series jets are widely considered to be among the most advanced fighter aircraft currently available on the world market. Part and parcel of the arms deals between Caracas and Moscow since 2003 that now amount to some $4.4 billion, the aircraft could affect the regional military dynamic.

Chavez’s focus on arms purchases stems partly from a desire to play to nationalist fervor and in part from real fear. He has concertedly attempted to paint Washington as an interminable foreign enemy to focus domestic attention abroad and garner support for his rule. And although an actual invasion of Venezuela by the United States is not in the cards, the two states have had a hostile relationship since Chavez came to power in 1999. It is no secret that U.S. funds were used to help finance a 2002 coup attempt — something Chavez in particular has not forgotten. (And it is worth noting that in the wake of this coup, Chavez purged the military of most of its competent officers.)

From a military perspective, the Venezuelan air force has suffered since 2001 when the breach with Washington resulted in an end of the delivery of parts and supplies for the Venezuelan air force’s U.S.-built F-16s — the country’s premier fighter aircraft. Maintenance crews have reportedly been able to keep a few air-worthy (a point of institutional pride), but most remain on the ground. Despite this, Venezuela’s best pilots reportedly get a respectable amount of airtime annually, though the degree of their proficiency remains unclear.

Related Link
Venezuela: Chavez’s Move For More Control
The transition from Venezuela’s long-standing use of Western military equipment to Russian hardware will inherently present difficulties and perhaps entail significant delays. U.S. and Russian equipment is built to different standards of quality with largely independent design heritages. Electronic systems especially will take a great deal of effort to learn and integrate. Indeed, even after the transition to the new hardware, the air force will then have to learn how to best exploit the aircraft’s newfound capabilities and integrate that utility into its operational doctrine. And while both Russian pilots and maintenance reportedly are in Venezuela training their counterparts, Moscow’s reputation for after-market service and sustainment is notoriously poor. The ultimate quality and durability of Russian training and support in the Venezuelan case is yet to be seen — but remains in doubt.

But in the mean time, some of the first airframes to arrive (delivery began in December 2006) are already considered in service with the air force, and reportedly even launched ordnance in June. Caracas’ pilots (how many are Russian or former Soviet republic expatriates is unclear at this time) have a good chance of being able to operate at least a few of the new Sukhoi aircraft in basic mission profiles in the near future. If Venezuelan pilots prove capable — and that is no small if — Chavez’s investment in Russian hardware could begin to represent a meaningful military capability.





(click image to enlarge)
These planes have a combat radius in excess of 500 nautical miles — more than either the Venezuelan F-16s or their older French-built Mirage III brethren. This is enough to reach the Panama Canal, the U.S. Naval Station at Guantanamo Bay and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico as well as all of Colombia — Caracas’ main regional rival. Though it is unclear exactly which ordnance was part of the deal, a broad-spectrum kit would include everything from air-to-air missiles to ground attack munitions and potentially even air-launched anti-ship missiles. The Su-30MK series is highly maneuverable and capable of simultaneously engaging two airborne targets.

Competently operated, the Su-30MKV’s — the Venezuelan Su-30MK variant — would be, hands-down, the most capable multirole fighter jets in Latin America and the first instance of “Flanker” proliferation in the Western Hemisphere (it has been rampant in East Asia). Though they would not stop a concerted assault by the United States, the jets are something Venezuela’s neighbors — especially Colombia — will have to work to establish a new counter against.
Title: Chavez Cements Socialism
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on August 20, 2008, 06:20:57 PM
Chavez's Big Grab

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Wednesday, August 20, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Socialism: Venezuela's seizure of Cemex assets Monday is more than a typical nationalization of resources. Its vindictive manner has much to do with the firm's Mexican headquarters. It's a message to others in the region.

Like a quasi-military conquest, Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez marched in troops to "take back" four Cemex cement plants in the dead of night as part of his nationalization of cement announced in April. "It was time," he said Tuesday, calling it one of his "steps toward socialism."

Chavez then popped out fireworks as red T-shirted mobs, judges and politicians headed to the plants and cheered their "victory."

Why was Cemex "defeated"? Because last April, Mexico's Cemex told Chavez its plants were worth $1.3 billion, based on standard norms of value. Chavistas said no dice, and after driving their stock price down in Caracas trade, offered $800 million tops.

The Venezuelans, of course, had the last word, and moved into their clownish conquest even before Chavez's 90-day negotiation period expired.

For Latin Americans, this is something of a wake-up call. No longer will Latin American companies be exempt from Chavez's power plays. In fact, a Latin American company might now expect even worse treatment than the western ones Chavez has grabbed.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, no stranger to public quarrels with Chavez over free markets, complained that Chavez's takeover amounted to discrimination against the Mexican company. He noted that Venezuela had paid two other cement firms — Holcie of Switzerland and Lafarge of France — fair prices for their assets. So the Mexican company was ripped off, which "we cannot understand," Calderon said, calling for more talks.

The sooner Mexico recognizes the obvious, the better.

Chavez's vindictive treatment of a Mexican company has more to do with his loathing of Mexico, and the capitalist development path it has pursued, than it does with price. Successful Latin American companies ought to expect particularly harsh treatment from Chavez if they succeed. There already are many signs of this.

For one, the last time Chavez made a show of troops and flags was when he seized Exxon Mobil's assets in 2007. Like Exxon, Cemex is a foreign company, and the amounts expropriated — about $1 billion in Exxon's case and $1.3 billion in Cemex's — are comparable.

Second, like Exxon, Cemex is a big company that has resisted being kicked around by a petty dictator. Cemex reportedly has told Chavez that it would see him in international court.
As global companies, both Exxon and Cemex know their responses to Chavez are being watched closely by other dictators. They must defend their shareholders, an alien notion to Chavez.
Still, it goes even beyond that. Mexico's Cemex, like U.S.-based Exxon, is known for its advanced technology, state of the art operations, fiscal transparency and high profitability. For any company this is remarkable. But for a Mexican company it is especially so.

Chavez not only cannot stand Mexico, he also cannot stand the idea of a successful, world-class Latin American company like Cemex providing an example to the region. Rather than leave them alone, he's not only trying to rub their presence out with nationalization, he's also tricked up bogus charges of tax evasion and environmental damage — something no nationalized firm has avoided.

Chavez has nationalized telecommunications, electricity, farms, iron, steel, oil and banks over two years in a bid to end private property and turn Venezuela into Cuba. All of the nationalized firms have since gone from profitability to losses.

The prosperity and better life Cemex's jobs represent for its 67,000 workers as well as the superior product it delivers to its customers directly challenges Chavez's claim to ideological dominance in the region.

As we said, Cemex likely will defend itself in court. But Mexico's government will have to toughen up and prepare to confront a predator challenging the success of its private sector on more than just this front. Chavez's wrath against Mexico is particularly strong.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=304125139898165#
Title: Venezuela plot
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 12, 2008, 04:13:15 PM
Summary
The Venezuelan daily newspaper El Universal is reporting that a tape played on a Venezuelan state television show allegedly depicts the voice of a former Venezuelan admiral plotting to overthrow President Hugo Chavez. It is possible the allegations are true — the military has reasons to be worried about Chavez. In any case, the president will try to use the alleged plot to his benefit.

Analysis
A possible plot to oust Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been uncovered, El Universal reported Sept. 11. The alleged coup was revealed in a voice recording said to be that of former Venezuelan Vice Adm. Carlos Millán and played by Chavez ally Mario Silva on his television show the evening of Sept. 10. Whether or not the accusations are true, they serve to create a sense of embattlement for the Chavez government and will be used as a rallying cry for Venezuelan nationalism.

Citing an unnamed source, Silva played the tape on which a man’s voice said: “Here there is only one objective: We will take the Miraflores Palace…. The objective can only be one thing, that is to say, all of the forces must be where [Chavez] is. If he is in Miraflores, that is where all the forces will be.” In addition to Millán, Chavez has named former army Gen. Wilfredo Barroso Herrera and former air force Gen. Eduardo Báez Torrealba as co-conspirators. In response, Chavez supporters have issued a call to march Sept. 15 in protest of the conspiracy, and Chavez has announced that unnamed individuals have been detained. In addition, Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro accused the United States of sponsoring the plan.

The accusation adds to the list of former military officials whom Chavez has accused of various misdeeds or who have spoken out against the president. One of the most prominent of the officials is former Venezuelan Defense Minister Gen. Raul Isaias Baduel, who is embroiled in a legal battle with the Venezuelan government, and recently survived a half-baked assassination attempt.

It is quite possible that the coup allegations are true. It would not be the first time the military has been involved in undermining Chavez — indeed, portions of the military became involved in a 2002 coup attempt that briefly removed Chavez from power.

At this point, given the deteriorating security situation in the country, skyrocketing inflation and the slow downward spiral of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, the military has a great number of reasons to be concerned about Chavez’s rule. Indeed, Baduel and other military leaders have been especially opposed to Chavez’s policies that have attempted to alter or challenge the structure of the military. This includes a controversial plan to create pro-Chavez civilian militias as a new branch of the military.

Regardless of whether the coup allegations are true, they serve an important purpose for Chavez by increasing the public’s sense that the government is embattled. With municipal and state-level elections approaching in November, Chavez has been fighting a domestic battle for support as he attempts to undermine the opposition and strengthen his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Chavez, like former Cuban President Fidel Castro before him, holds power through constant brinksmanship behavior. (An excellent example of this phenomenon are the recent tensions with Colombia; Venezuela moved troops to the border and threatened war — despite the relative weakness of his military and Colombia’s refusal to engage.)

In fostering a sense of impending doom from the outside — be it from the United States or scheming oligarchs — Chavez (usually successfully) attempts to rile up nationalistic support for his sagging regime.
Title: WSJ: Chavez (Dodd)
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 17, 2008, 09:24:12 AM
Hugo Chávez's threat last week to bring tanks to the streets if his side does not win key states in Sunday's gubernatorial elections is chilling. But it is not surprising. It is only the next logical step in what is the Venezuelan president's drive to seize all power and silence all dissent.

 
Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez.
Despite numerous setbacks for Venezuelan democracy, many still believe that they can rid themselves of Mr. Chávez democratically. Their expectations were raised last year when voters defeated a referendum in which Mr. Chávez attempted to rewrite the constitution to strengthen his authoritarian powers. Now they hope to deliver another setback by voting in anti-Chávez governors in at least three and maybe more than 10 of the country's 23 states. The top post in the capital district of Caracas is also up for grabs.

There are currently at least 18 states with pro-Chávez governors, and despite deteriorating living standards, Mr. Chávez's United Socialist Party of Venezuela is expected to be returned to power in a good number of them.


Mary Anastasia O'Grady speaks with James Freeman. (Nov. 17)
One reason is that the cards are stacked against the opposition. The government is using state funds for pro-Chávez candidates and has dramatically outspent the competition. The National Electoral Council is dominated by pro-Chávez representatives. Scores of individuals who are popular were declared "ineligible" to run. The government has refused to release the voter rolls so that the opposition can ensure that they are clean. On election day, lines are expected to be long and the widespread assumption that the government will use tricks to win could dampen opposition turnout.

Yet even these odds are not enough for Mr. Chávez. In recent weeks he has begun threatening to use the military against his own population in states where his municipal and gubernatorial candidates are defeated. On a trip to the state of Carabobo last week, for example, he told voters, "If you let the oligarchy return to government then maybe I'll end up sending the tanks of the armored brigade out to defend the revolutionary government." Just as troubling are the president's declarations that in states where his candidates are not elected, he will withhold federal funding.

The Americas in the News
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.
Venezuelans saw this coming. From his earliest days as president in 1999, Mr. Chávez began working to destroy any checks on his power. On April 11, 2002, after weeks of street protests against this effort, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans marched again in Caracas. Nineteen people were shot dead in the streets by government supporters. When Mr. Chávez asked the military to use force against the crowd, the generals refused and instead told him he had to step aside.

One might think that all Americans would have supported the demand to stop the bloodshed. But Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd threw a fit over Mr. Chávez's removal. The self-styled Latin America expert insisted that since Mr. Chávez had been initially "democratically elected" in a fair vote, he should have been immune from challenges to his power, no matter the abuses. To this day the senator calls the event a U.S.-backed coup, even though a State Department Inspector General's report found that the charge was false. Even the Organization of American States accepted the change in power.

Of course it wasn't a coup, U.S. backed or otherwise, as witnessed by the fact that while Mr. Chávez was removed from power, he was allowed to keep his cell phone, chat with Havana and negotiate his future. With the inadvertent help of the opposition, which acted incompetently, Mr. Chávez was back in office days later.

Today in Opinion Journal
REVIEW & OUTLOOK

Spitzer as VictimThe $639 Million LoopholeChina's News Concession

TODAY'S COLUMNISTS

The Americas: Dodd's 'Democrat' Tightens His Grip
– Mary Anastasia O'GradyInformation Age: Markets Declare Truce in Copyright Wars
– L. Gordon Crovitz

COMMENTARY

Why Bankruptcy Is the Best Option for GM
– Michael E. LevineTo Prevent Bubbles, Restrain the Fed
– Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr.Democrats Shouldn't Rush on Labor Legislation
– Ariella BernsteinThe circumstances of Mr. Chávez's political resurrection are still debated, but what is not in question is the reason Venezuelans had massed in the streets that day: They opposed the strongman's consolidation of power, which they warned would lead to dictatorship.

Fast forward six and a half years, and it turns out that the protestors were right.

Nearly all economic, judicial, electoral and congressional power in Venezuela is now in the hands of Mr. Dodd's "democratically elected" Chávez. Cuban doctors and teachers blanket the country, indoctrinating the poor. Cuban intelligence personnel are always on hand to support the Bolivarian Revolution while neighborhood gangs do the grass-roots work of enforcement. Political prisoners are rotting in Venezuelan jails without trials.

Being identified as a political opponent of the revolution is a ticket to the end of the unemployment line. Private property has zero protection under the law and the economy's private sector has been all but destroyed.

Mr. Chávez appears surprised that after a decade of repression, Venezuelans are still struggling to regain their liberty. But he is just as determined to retain control, and has made it clear he will not accept defeat at the polls. This is your "democratically elected" president, Sen. Dodd.

Write to Mary Anastasia O'Grady at O'Grady@wsj.com
Title: Market Forces Chavez's Hand
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on January 14, 2009, 09:08:57 PM
Chávez reopens oil bids to West as prices plunge
By Simon Romero
Thursday, January 15, 2009
CARACAS: President Hugo Chávez, buffeted by falling oil prices that threaten to damage his efforts to establish a Socialist-inspired state, is quietly courting Western oil companies once again.

Until recently, Chávez had pushed foreign oil companies here into a corner by nationalizing their oil fields, raiding their offices with tax authorities and imposing a series of royalties increases.

But faced with the plunge in prices and a decline in domestic production, senior officials here have begun soliciting bids from some of the largest Western oil companies in recent weeks — including Chevron, Royal Dutch/Shell and Total of France — promising them access to some of the world's largest petroleum reserves, according to energy executives and industry consultants here.

Their willingness to even consider investing in Venezuela reflects the scarcity of projects open to foreign companies in other top oil nations, particularly in the Middle East.

But the shift also shows how the global financial crisis is hampering Chávez's ideological agenda and demanding his pragmatic side. At stake are no less than Venezuela's economic stability and the sustainability of his rule. With oil prices so low, the longstanding problems plaguing Petróleos de Venezuela, the national oil company that helps keep the country afloat, have become much harder to ignore.

Embracing the Western companies may be the only way to shore up Petróleos de Venezuela and the raft of social welfare programs, like health care and higher education for the poor, that have been made possible by oil proceeds and have helped bolster his popular support.

"If re-engaging with foreign oil companies is necessary to his political survival, then Chávez will do it," said Roger Tissot, an authority on Venezuela's oil industry at Gas Energy, a Brazilian consulting company focusing on Latin America. "He is a military man who understands losing a battle to win the war."

While the new oil projects would not be completed for years, Chávez is already looking beyond the end of his current term in 2012 by putting forward a referendum, expected as early as next month, that would let him run for indefinite re-election.

In recent years, Chávez has preferred partnerships with national oil companies from countries like Iran, China and Belarus. But these ventures failed to reverse Venezuela's declining oil output. State-controlled oil companies from other nations have also been invited to bid this time, but the large private companies are seen as having an advantage, given their expertise in building complex projects in Venezuela and elsewhere in years past.

The bidding process was first conceived last year when oil prices were higher but Petróleos de Venezuela's production decline was getting impossible to overlook. Still, the process is moving into high gear only this month, with the authorities here expected to start reviewing the companies' bidding plans on new areas of the Orinoco Belt, an area in southern Venezuela with an estimated 235 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Altogether, more than $20 billion in investment could be required to assemble devilishly complex projects capable of producing a combined 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

Chávez's olive branch to Western oil companies comes after he nationalized their oil fields in 2007. Two companies, Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, left Venezuela and are still waging legal battles over lost projects.

But Venezuela may have little choice but to form new ventures with foreign oil companies. Nationalizations in other sectors, like agriculture and steel manufacturing, are fueling capital flight, leaving Venezuela reliant on oil for about 93 percent of its export revenue in 2008, up from 69 percent in 1998 when Chávez was first elected.

In the past year, with higher oil prices paving the way, Chávez also vastly expanded Petróleos de Venezuela's power, inextricably linking it to his political program. He directed the oil company to build roads, import and distribute food, build docks and shipyards and set up a light-bulb factory. He even expanded it into areas like milk production, soybean farming and the training of athletes after a weak performance at the Beijing Olympics.

One of the oil company's ventures sells subsidized food and extols Chávez's leadership at its stores across Venezuela. At one frenzied store in eastern Caracas, posters hung from the ceiling last Saturday showing Chávez arm in arm with children beneath the heading, "fortifying agrarian socialism."

Petróleos de Venezuela has also carried out nationalizations in other industries, absorbing companies like Electricidad de Caracas, the utility serving this city of five million. Top executives like Eulogio del Pino, the Stanford-educated vice president of exploration and production, spent much of 2008 negotiating unfinished deals like the takeover of a cement company.

But all the while, Petróleos de Venezuela has faced its own difficulties. It claimed it produced about 3.3 million barrels a day throughout most of 2008. But other sources like OPEC, of which Venezuela is a member, place the figure closer to 2.3 million and show a fall of about 100,000 barrels a day from a year earlier. When Chávez rose to power a decade ago, Venezuela was producing about 3.4 million barrels a day.

Rafael Ramírez, the energy minister and president of Petróleos de Venezuela, did not respond to requests for an interview. But energy executives here with contacts within Petróleos de Venezuela said Ramírez, a confidant of Chávez, has been waging a struggle within the company to refocus operations toward producing more oil.

After weathering the turmoil of recent years, Western oil companies here are loath to speak publicly about their plans. "We don't elaborate on bidding processes beyond the fact that we evaluate every opportunity and our decisions will be based on economics and other factors," said Scott Walker, a spokesman for Chevron.

But energy executives here speak with restrained optimism. Nineteen companies paid $2 million each last month for data on areas open for exploration, twice what such data costs elsewhere.

Oil companies say they recognize the risk of investing in Venezuela, given the country's abrupt shifts in the past. But they focus on the long-term potential of its petroleum reserves. Venezuela poses little risk in the search for oil since geologists have known for years where it lies in the Orinoco Belt.

Venezuela also differs from top oil nations like Saudi Arabia and Mexico, where national oil companies have monopolies. Petróleos de Venezuela let private companies remain as minority partners after the nationalizations, despite Chávez's often aggressive anticapitalist stance.

Moreover, foreign oil services companies like Halliburton, which has done business in Venezuela for 70 years, have even expanded their activities in the country as Petróleos de Venezuela grew more dependent on contractors to help extract oil from aging wells.

Still, doubts persist over the chances that the new bids, which are set to conclude in June, will ultimately result in finished oil projects. Risks of operating here were underscored again last week when Venezuela ordered new production cuts along with other OPEC members, impacting ventures with private partners.

Under the current bidding rules, the onus for financing the new projects lies with the foreign companies, even though Petróleos de Venezuela would maintain control. Banks might balk at such a prospect. Distrust also lingers in dealing with Petróleos de Venezuela.

"An agreement on a piece of paper means nothing in Venezuela because of the way Chávez abruptly changes the rules of the game," said a Venezuelan oil executive who has had dealings with oil companies from China, Russia and other countries.

"In 10 years, not one major oil project has been built in Venezuela," said the oilman, who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. "Chávez has left his so-called strategic partners out to dry, like the Chinese, who have been given the same treatment as Exxon."

But the severity of the drop in oil prices may ultimately dictate the terms on which Venezuela re-engages with foreign oil companies.

"Chávez is celebrating the demise of capitalism as this international crisis unfolds," said Pedro Mario Burelli, a former board member of Petróleos de Venezuela. "But the irony is that capitalism actually fed his system in times of plenty," he said. "That is something Chávez will discover the hard way."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/15/america/15venez.php
Title: Southern Satellite Saga
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on May 20, 2009, 05:59:48 AM
This tale reminds me of Soviet efforts to keep up with the technical Jones' back during the Cold War.

May 20, 2009
The Mystery of the Venezuelan Satellite

By Adolfo Fabregat
Venezuela's "socialist satellite" is mostly a no-show when it comes to television broadcasts. Bad news for Hugo Chavez, and worse news for the Chinese, whose space program supplied it.

During the May 10th broadcast of his weekly show Aló Presidente, Hugo Chávez made a number of references to the show being broadcast via the "Satélite Simón Bolivar."  Superimposed on the screens at home,  Venezuelans saw the graphic "En Vivo Satélite Simón Bolivar".

But there was one problem; satellite watchers in Venezuela and Brazil noticed that the satellite was not broadcasting anything,  let alone Aló Presidente.  Where were the ground stations getting their signal from?  A similar situation happened in the broadcast of the show the week before, May 3rd, so this time the watchers were ready.  They scanned the neighbor satellite NSS806, the one normally used by most Venezuelan TV Stations, and there it was, the show was being broadcast the same way it had most Sundays for the last 10 years.   The U$400 million satellite known in technical circles as VENESAT-1was a no-show as it has been since its launch by China October 29th 2008.

Satellite watchers, in what is known as the FTA Community (Free To Air or unencrypted broadcasts), is a fast growing group of amateurs scanning the geo synchronous satellites visible above their horizon, excited to find such varied programming as soccer games from Argentina, news from Iran or bullfights from Spain, in a way reminiscent of police scanners or ham radio operators.

The FTA Community gathers in internet forums mostly organized around the geographical areas of the satellites they can receive, to share information about what satellites may be broadcasting and to help each other troubleshoot reception problems.

It is in these forums that questions about the satellite operation began to emerge.  One can follow a history of excitement early on when the VENESAT-1went live back in January to disappointment currently with the lack of any regularly available programming.   Because the VENESAT-1 is not broadcasting with any regularity or quality, there isn't much commentary.  Most of what is posted  is about the, somewhat incomprehensibly, the only regularly schedule broadcast from the satellite: a Brazilian network on a backup transponder with no audio. Any broadcasts from Venezuelan networks are usually short, with pixilated images and of very low quality.  Here is a sample of the comments:

Quote
Sadoun.net

Jose47: m getting VENESAT-1signal @60% Quality on trasnponder 11380 H 23030. I get five channels but only one has picture and no sound. I do not know why I can't get sound. Anyways, I live in West Palm Beach Fl.

BYX: Most of the times with some feeds palying in a loop the China olympics, last time I checked they had a brasilian channel with no audio.

FTA Testers

CarlosRamos: Hello friends, I've been trying since yesterday to tune to any signal  in the ku band and can't get anything, in the C band i get VTV and ANTV and a Brazilian channel in the backup, I would like to know if anyone has tune any other channels.

[Hola amigos tengo desde el dia de ayer intentando sintonizar alguna señal en la banda ku y no capto nada, en la banda C se sintoniza VTV y ANTV y un canal brasilero en el Backup, quisiera saber si han recibido otro canal.]

FTA Chile

I get it occasionally here in Acapulco y got it just by luck and yes there is only 5 channels of the backup 1 to 5 y at least I don't get any with audio or video. Regards

[Pues a de ser de a ratos aca en acapulco lo pesque de pura suerte y si asi es solo aparecen 5 canales del backup 1 al 5 y al menos yo no vi ninguno con audio o video. Saludos.]

TV Digital Satélite

Brazilian: What is going on with the Venezuelan satellite VENESAT-11 ??

[América Do Sul: O Que Se Passa Com O Satélite Venezuelano VENESAT-11 ??]

But no one has been more dedicated to following the operation of VENESAT-1 as Venezuela's own Juan Perdomo Guerrero (email) who has been documenting his findings in a forum in the very popular Noticiero Digital newsite/forum.   His post regarding the operation-condition of VENESAT-1 has become the most viewed ever, with over 350 thousands views, and the most commented with over 800 comments in little over 5 months.

Mr. Perdomo has recently edited the first page of the post to reflect a summary of all his findings because a large number, if not the majority, of the 800+ comments were insults directed at Mr. Perdomo from Chávez supporters who make a very political response to what is in essence a technical question, the satellite either works or it doesn't.

Unquestionably there is a political dimension to the condition of the satellite and that was made by Mr. Chávez and members of his administration who, like then Minister of Science and Technology Nuris Orihuela declared to the most influential Spanish newspaper, El País, that VENESAT-1is  "a socialist satellite" , or as reported in Venezuela's state news agency ABN, the satellite will   "serve for the construction of socialism" or that it proves the superiority of the socialist revolution as in this speech by Chávez himself and reported in his own TeleSur network:

Quote
If it wasn't for the socialist Revolution, China wouldn't have achieved the scientific  and technological advances it posses today.  China is a clear example that you do not need an empire to be a power.

["Si no fuese por la Revolución socialista, China no hubiera logrado el adelanto científico y tecnológico que obstenta hoy en día. China es la muestra clara de que no hace falta ser un imperio para ser una potencia"]

The satellite either works or it doesn't.

For the average TV viewer at home it does not matter one bit whether the image is coming from a satellite or not, much less what specific satellite is being used.  With now thousands of satellites in orbit and hundreds being launched every year, satellite failures no longer command front page news.  But in the growing and competitive satellite industry, involving billion dollar investments in launch services, manufacturing services and ground equipment, it is a big deal to know if satellites have operational difficulties.  So it is highly significant that no one in the industry has detected and reported problems with VENESAT's condition.  There is a lot circumstantial evidence that the VENESAT-1 is not where it should be at this stage of it operational life.

A depreciating asset.

Beyond all the grand "socialist" objectives planned for VENESAT-1, one thing is certain, a satellite is a depreciating asset.

According to Minister Orihuela, described in this document of the Ministry of Science and Technology as also the Presidenta del Centro Espacial Venezolano,  VENESAT-1 has a planned life of 12-15 years (180 months on the outside) and required an investment of U$240 million in manufacture and launch -- paid to China Great Wall Industry Corp. and another U$150 million in infrastructure like technical training and ground equipment in Venezuela. 

Every month the VENESAT-1 depreciates some U$2.5 million, so one would expect that the proprietors of the satellite, the Venezuelan government, would want to make as productive use of those 180 months as possible.    Ms. Orihuela herself in the previously linked interview describes the ongoing costs of Venezuela satellite for 24 state TV stations, 24 state radios, infocenters and national libraries as exceedingly high.   Yet seven months after its launch very little visible use of the satellite has been detected, except for the TV graphics every time Mr. Chávez is on TV.  An interesting comparison can be made with the satellite Star One C2, launched for Brazil last year by the European Space Agency on April 18th.  By June 2nd, only six weeks after its launch, the Star One C2 was fully operational to the point that it totally replaced the ageing BrasilSatB4 in "the task of broadcasting the main Brazilian TV network channels". 

LyngSat.com is an excellent Scandinavian operation that collects information from FTA satellite watchers around the world about what they find being broadcast in orbiting satellites in its different transponders and frequencies.   It operates much like a Wikipedia but for FTA aficionados.  In the case of VENESAT-1, lyngsat reports three TV stations, a frequency from the Ministry of Education and a couple of feeds.  Even assuming that these were regularly produced broadcasts and not FTA reports intended to manipulate the public  information, it is fair to say that is a very weak grid compared to dozens of stations in the aforementioned Star One C2 launched only a few months earlier.

To reinforce the point, assuming the lyngsat information about the VENESAT-1 is accurate, lyngsat still reports most Venezuelan TV stations broadcasting through NSS806.

The promises of VENESAT

The business site goliath.excnext.com links to a press release  (full article by registration only) from CANTV, the state owned telephone, television and internet provider with the following digest:

Quote
Venezuela-based state-owned telecom service provider CANTV commenced its services through the nation's Simón Bolivar (Venesat-1) satellite on January 10, according to a government statement. CANTV will deliver high-speed Internet, satellite-based telephony, and television services to remote regions. The government...

The article is dated January 1st.  As far as anyone knows none of these services are in currently in operation.

On January 7th 2009, CANTV published in its website (still there as of this writing) this report about the upcoming (January 10th) transfer of control of the VENESAT-1from Chinese technicians to Venezuelan.

The most striking aspect of the report is that the two officials mentioned and pictured , Minister of Science and Technology Nuris Orihuela and Minister of Telecomunications and Information Socorro Hernández have both been relieved of their duties, Ms Orihuela on April 9th and Ms Hernández  just last week, May 13th

Except for the linked article, the CANTV website appears to have been purged of any references to the VENESAT.

Commenting on the recent changes of personnel within the administration, the widely popular and respected Venezuelan web site The Devil's Excrement on May 15th described  VENESAT-1as "...the worthless Chinese satellite, ..."

What about Uruguay?

Because Venezuela's assigned orbital slot could not reach as many potential users as he wanted, Chávez negotiated with Uruguay, whose assigned slot at 78 degrees west could provide coverage from the Eastern US all the way down to the top portion of Argentina, to cede its slot in exchange for 10% of the available use of the satellite.

The agreement, signed during a meeting of Mercosur countries in Montevideo in December 2005, requires Venezuela to pay all the costs related to the transfer of property of the orbital slot with the International Telecommunications Union  and to pay for all the infrastructure costs in Uruguay including a ground station in the town of Manga, in the outskirts of Montevideo, as well as the training of technical operators.

For Uruguay, that otherwise could not afford to make use of its orbital slot, the deal seemed to make sense, as it could bring significant savings in satellite services.   The deal was approved by Uruguay's Congress, but not without a number of voices of concern from members of the opposition parties that did not fully trust Chávez would use the satellite solely for the advertised intended purposes.

Four years after the agreement was signed and seven months after the satellite was launched there is nothing to show for in Uruguay and not even significant mentions of the satellite in the press.

There was however, this report from El Observador on May 10th under the curious headline "Uruguay will start to utilize its satellite by the end of the year", while at the same time reporting that the initiation of the U$500 thousand ground station could not be celebrated "con bombos y platillos" (fanfare) during Chávez visit to the region on May 15th because the work is "delayed", although no reason is given as to why or for how long.  Even more intriguing the article alludes to the imminent visit to Montevideo of Minister Socorro Hernández to begin the process, but if there is one thing we can really be certain of is that Socorro Hernández will not be visiting Montevideo any time soon.

The checkered history of the DFH4

VENESAT-1 was launched on October 29th 2008; fourteen days later, November 12th, China Great Wall Industry Corp. confirmed that the NIGCOMSAT-1, a satellite that shared the same core technology known as DongFangHong-4 (DFH4) with VENESAT-1 and launched 18 months earlier on behalf of the government of Nigeria, was completely lost.

VENESAT-1 and NIGCOMSAT-1 also share the same DFH4 technology with SINOSAT-2, launched in 2006, ostensibly to provide additional communications capabilities for the 2008 Peking Olympics.  The SINOSAT-2 was confirmed totally lost within a couple of weeks after its launch. Gunther's Space Page reports of the 10 launched or planned DFH4 based satellites, nine were either lost, cancelled or delayed with VENESAT accounting for the tenth.

Satellite journalist Peter J. Brown concludes, in this thorough and exhaustive analysis of the impact of the loss of NIGCOMSAT to the Chinese satellite industry, if the loss of the NIGCOMSAT-1 had occurred a couple of weeks earlier, the launch of the VENESAT-1 would most likely had been postponed.

Both lost satellites appeared to have suffered electrical problems caused by failed or damaged solar arrays and this is what Mr. Perdomo, who has been monitoring and recording his findings, thinks also has happened to VENESAT.  In an email from Venezuela he shares this opinion:

Quote
"When VENESAT-1 deployed its solar panels it must have lost control because it took more than four months to reach its operational position.  Then they started putting channels in the satellite on C band and feeds on Ku band that were reported to Lyngsat and registered, 3 channels on C band, and feeds on Ku (never reconfirmed), they also started some testing for C band internet and sensor reading on Ka band for PDVSA [Venezuela's Oil Company], by then they were trying to get whatever they could from it to keep the deception as long as possible. They changed the story in the official media, avoiding any reference to the services they could no longer offer specifically DBS (direct to home broadcasting on the Ku band) and telemedicine, education act, that originally were the justification for the program. Uruguay must have known about these problems and postponed the investment for a useless control center.

The Venezuelan channels should be on the VENESAT-124/7 like they are now on NSS 806.  The Aló Presidente transmissions you mention are just fakes to keep the lie, this is proven beyond any doubt. At the moment not even feeds are there, just the spurious signal in the backup transponder from the Brazilian station meant for satellite Star One C2 that although 8 degrees away shares the same frequencies.  The intent to produce transmissions deteriorated the satellite beyond any hope of recovery, and this is the situation since April 9.  This stage could last for months; I have no way of predicting exactly how long, NIGCOMSAT still has some juice during the day."

How will this story unfold?

No one wants to see a communications satellite that could provide so many beneficial services fail. On the other hand it is fair to say that so far VENESAT-1 has been a less than stellar performer and the track record of the DFH4-based satellites does not inspire much confidence that it will improve in the future.

If there were absolutely no problems with the satellite, why it is taking so long to come up to speed?

But if there are problems, the implications for both the Chinese and Venezuelan governments are immense.

For Mr. Chávez the humiliation that the object that represents the superiority of his revolution failed is going to be a hard pill to swallow.  For the Chinese, the stakes are even higher: the reputation of their satellite program, a commercial enterprise with national security implications.

Page Printed from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/the_mystery_of_the_venezuelan.html at May 20, 2009 - 08:53:04 AM EDT
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 20, 2009, 07:10:52 AM
I don't launch satellites but I do fix my plumbing when it leaks. I have always liked to do minor repairs around the home. A coupe of years ago I had a problem with my kitchen sink. To solve the problem I bought some Chinese made galvanized pipe fittings at a local hardware store. I didn't bother to examine the fittings at the store, after all, what could possibly be bad about them, regular, conventional, low tech galvanized pipe, no big deal.

Until I tried to use them, that is. What CRAP! Utter CRAP! The galvanized finish utterly destroyed by the careless use of a pipe wrench and the thread so badly cut that it was impossible to make a watertight connection. I threw them in the trash bin and went out to buy some non-socialist pipe fittings probably made by the Empire.

If the Chinese can't even make low tech pipe fittings and if they poison babies with melamine in the edible products, it is not strange at all that they can't make a functional satellite.

Chavez and his 21st Century Socialism is destroying my country, there is no doubt about it.  I don't really care if the satellite works or not, it is used to disseminate socialist lies and to spread the hate that Chavez uses to remain in control. But Chavez has destroyed PDVSA, the source of 80% of our foreign currency. While he is willfully destroying private enterprise, he is also killing the goose that used to lay Venezuela's golden eggs. He is destroying the source of his own funding. Only an utter idiot would do something like that. All that he has left is the gift of the gab.

Denny Schlesinger
 

Title: Hallelujah, 21st. Century Socialism is finally paving my street
Post by: captainccs on May 20, 2009, 11:09:17 AM
Hallelujah, 21st. Century Socialism is finally paving my street


Mind you, the previous supposedly democratic governments didn't pave my street either. It had grown so full of potholes that you could almost do slalom practice by trying to avoid them. The holes got to be so famous that we have them names, the names of current office holders, of course.

A curious phenomenon happens with Latin American Governments. After they've been in power some time they discover that a good way to earn bribes is by handing out contracts for the building or repair of infrastructure. Not only that, it gives them an excuse to put up huge billboards telling us how marvelous they are, building for democracy, socialism or whatever happens to be in vogue. These billboards often tout the amount of money being spent for our benefit. Of course, they never says that its our money in the first place.   :-D

You got to love the Perfect Latin American Idiots. (http://www.amazon.com/Guide-Perfect-Latin-American-Idiot/dp/156833236X)
Title: More Opposition Harassment
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on May 24, 2009, 07:34:20 AM
Is Silence Consent?
The Obama administration's 'engagement' policy is convenient for Hugo Chávez's latest crackdown.
Sunday, May 24, 2009

WHILE THE United States and Venezuela's neighbors silently stand by, Hugo Chávez's campaign to destroy his remaining domestic opposition continues. On Thursday night state intelligence police raided the Caracas offices of Guillermo Zuloaga, the president of the country's last independent broadcast network, Globovision. They claimed to be looking for evidence of irregularities in the car dealership that Mr. Zuloaga also runs. In fact this was a thinly disguised escalation of an attack that Mr. Chávez launched this month against Globovision. The channel has been officially accused of "inciting panic," based on its accurate reporting of a mild May 4 earthquake in Caracas; under the regime's draconian media control law it could be shut down. Few doubt that that is Mr. Chávez's intent: Two years ago he revoked the license of the country's most popular television network after a similarly trumped-up campaign.

To recap: In February Mr. Chávez eliminated the limit on his tenure as president after a one-sided referendum campaign that included ugly attacks on Venezuela's Jewish community. Since then he has imprisoned or orchestrated investigations against most of the country's leading opposition figures, including three of the five opposition governors elected last year. The elected mayor of Maracaibo, who was the leading opposition candidate when Mr. Chávez last ran for president, was granted asylum in Peru last month after authorities sought his arrest on dubious tax charges. The National Assembly, controlled by Mr. Chávez, is considering legislation that would eliminate collective bargaining and replace independent trade unions with "worker's councils" controlled by the ruling party. Another new law would eliminate foreign financing for independent non-government groups.

This is hardly the first time that a Latin American caudillo has tried to eliminate peaceful opponents: Mr. Chávez is following a path well worn by the likes of Juan Perón and Alberto Fujimori -- not to mention his mentor, Fidel Castro. But this may be the first time that the United States has watched the systematic destruction of a Latin American democracy in silence. As Mr. Chávez has implemented the "third phase" of his self-styled revolution, the Obama administration has persisted with the policy of quiet engagement that the president promised before taking office.

"We need to find a space in which we can actually have a conversation, and we need to find ways to enhance our levels of confidence," Assistant Secretary of State Thomas A. Shannon Jr. said two weeks ago, echoing earlier remarks by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. We have no objection to dialogue with Mr. Chávez. But isn't it time to start talking about preserving independent television stations, opposition political leaders, trade unions and human rights groups -- before it is too late?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/23/AR2009052301527.html
Title: Because I say so
Post by: captainccs on May 25, 2009, 06:31:47 AM
Editorial
www.AlertaVenezuela.com

Because I say so

[05-22-09] Venezuelan politics never seems to touch bottom. This time, it might have. Venezuela has lived through so many ups and downs since Hugo Chavez came to power ten years ago that such tribulations no longer matter much. What does truly matter is the conviction, increasingly held today in and out of Venezuela, that Hugo Chavez has ignominiously betrayed the hope he once inspired in many. He appears to command still enough allegiance as to keep up appearances. Yet, the increasingly evident truth for friend and foe is that he has turned out to be a fraud, such as Venezuela had left behind several generations ago and had hoped would never witness again.

Where did Hugo Chavez fail? In retrospect, it might be said that he tried to change Venezuela in too many ways, in too short a time, and in a far too unilateral manner. It can be said that he tried to do so for the wrong reasons and in pursuit of the wrong goals. It could be said that he had a golden chance to give Venezuela a badly needed new opportunity on the strength of extravagantly high revenues. Yes. But today it can also be said that the simple truth is that he missed such an opportunity and that all that is left is the unfulfilled hopes created by his unbridled demagoguery, blatant disregard of the common will and misguided believes in a personal Utopia.

Furthermore, as Venezuela begins to understand the scale of the disaster it will have to deal with when the dust settles, it can already be said that Hugo Chavez willfully ruined a nation in his unrepentant ambition to shape Venezuela’s history and destiny according to the delusions of his delirious mind.

But that is not all. As the symptoms of a systemic crisis loom large over Venezuela’s political, social and economic prospects, Hugo Chavez has increasingly taken refuge in the ultimate subterfuge of failed politicians and erratic would-be tyrants: his will is the law. His convictions must per force be those of every Venezuelan, and dissent must be ignored, hidden or quashed.

What others might say or think is no longer of any consequence. What Venezuelans might believe, wish or cherish, is of no significance. The only destiny worthy of Venezuela is Hugo Chavez’s will. The ‘Bolivarian Revolution’ is simply his will. Is Venezuela to follow him blindly? As current events show, hopes and frustrations as large as those Hugo Chavez has given life to cannot coexist together for long. Judging by the Venezuelan president’s recent statements – of which we present a selection in our Video Section “Hugo Chavez in his Own Words” - he feels confident that the powers he holds and the numbness created by widespread corruption will settle the issue in his favor and that he will continue to be able to sow misery under the banner of a Utopia only he can lead the way to. Time will tell.

http://english.alertavenezuela.com/editorial/detalle.php?ediid=51

Spanish language version (http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=727.msg28734#msg28734)

Title: Many Aren't Fooled
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on May 29, 2009, 02:04:49 PM
“We Don’t Want Venezuela to Become a Totalitarian Communist State”

Posted by Ian Vasquez

“We don’t want Venezuela to become a totalitarian communist state,” declared Peruvian novelist Mario Vargas Llosa yesterday in Caracas at the opening of a major conference organized by the market-liberal think tank, CEDICE. I’m in Venezuela this week with my Cato colleagues Juan Carlos Hidalgo and Gabriela Calderon to participate in the event and to run a seminar for 60 students and young leaders from Venezuela, which took place earlier this week.

Vargas Llosa’s concern is not about some remote possibility. Nor is it the opinion of an isolated intellectual detached from reality. His comments received sustained applause from the over-flow crowd of the 600 people in attendance and he has been mobbed by the press since he arrived here yesterday. Venezuela is not yet a full fledged dictatorship, evidenced by the fact that we are meeting here with leading liberal intellectuals from the region. But the environment of intolerance, arbitrary rule, and state vilification of anybody who disagrees with Hugo Chavez’s march toward socialism has worsened at an alarming rate in recent months.


Already, Chavez has centralized economic and political control to a degree unmatched anywhere in the hemisphere outside of Cuba. He controls the legislature, the supreme court, the military, the central bank, the national electoral council, much of the media, the state oil monopoly and thus virtually all government spending, and exerts tremendous influence over the private sector through regulatory measures, most especially capital controls.

Freedom of speech is coming under renewed attack. Wednesday was the two-year anniversary of the government’s decision to shut down the independent RCTV (by refusing to renew its license)—until then the country’s largest television station. It was the closing of RCTV that sparked mass protests led by the Venezuelan student movement that culminated in the defeat in December 2007 of Chavez’s proposed constitutional referendum that would have turned the country into a socialist state. Since then, the opposition has won major victories in leading cities and states and Chavez has had to deal with the steep drop in the price of oil, the source of his astronomical spending. Chavez´s response has included the marginalization of elected opposition politicians by depriving them of most of their funding and appointing parallel officials to carry out local government functions with full funding; the imposition by law of many of the measures rejected in the constitutional referendum; a rash of further nationalizations and land confiscations; and threats to close Globovision TV, the only remaining independent television station in the country.

The extent and technological sophistication of state propaganda here is impressive and chilling. Numerous state television stations operate 24 hours a day, relying on a diversity of formats (talk shows, music videos, interviews, “news” programs, congressional “debates,” etc.), praising the Chavez regime, and attacking the private sector. The programming is not just pro-government. It is explicitly Marxist through and through. There is endless talk about the effort to create a “new socialist man.” Those of us who have come to defend basic freedom in Venezuela have been individually and institutionally labeled on state television as imperialists and agents of the CIA. Currently and ironically, there is a government campaign against the “hegemony” of the private press and “media terrorism”—otherwise known in civilized countries as freedom of the press. The state intellectuals are discussing the lack of social responsibility of the private press and one channel carries congressional debates on the subject. The other day the government raided the house of the president of Globovision and accused him of violating the law in business dealings unrelated to the television station. This is being used as further proof of the existence of a vast “mafia” led by the “oligarchy.” Last night Mario Silva, the Goebbels of Venezuela, openly called on his television show for the closing of Globovision on the grounds that the station has misled and insulted the Venezuelan people for far too long and that enough is enough. I could go on but you get the picture. And this is only TV. The government finances marches, concerts and rallies, and pro-Chavez party propaganda on billboards, government buildings, public squares, etc. throughout the city and the country.

As was posted earlier, we co-sponsored a three-day Cato seminar on classical liberal thought for 60 Venezuelan students earlier this week with CEDICE that the national guard, an education ministry official and state TV interrupted in an effort to shut the event down. Their reasons for doing so were ludicrous—they accused us of setting up a university without permission. When we explained that it was a seminar that only uses the name university in the title, they then said we were engaging in false advertising and thus were still breaking the law. Fortunately, we had immediately called Globovision who immediately began reporting the incident as it occurred. I think Globovision’s role played no small part in pressuring government officials to leave. The government tried to intimidate us and provoke us into reacting aggressively, which we did not do. (Ironically, my Argentinean colleague, Professor Martin Krause, was giving a lecture at our seminar on the importance of civil society at the time of the government’s harassment.) For weeks, state media had been reporting that we were setting up a camp to train young Venezuelans in subversive tactics to overthrow the Chavez regime. This has then been discussed at length on state television by commentators, intellectuals, etc. Later I watched on Mario Silva’s program how they covered the incident showing footage that supposedly showed how we were openly flouting Venezuelan law in a number of ways. Later the same day, the authorities detained Peruvian intellectual Alvaro Vargas Llosa for three hours upon his arrival at the airport as he was headed to the Cato-CEDICE seminar, finally letting him go and informing him that he could not discuss political issues. Here again Globovision played a key role. It began reporting the events at airport as they happened, which were in turn immediately reported throughout the Latin American press.

This is an increasingly polarized and tense society. But it is also true that Chavez must rely extensively on force and deception to promote his socialist project. His personal popularity has sunk under 50 percent in recent weeks (support for his policies are even lower) and he is becoming more radical. The CEDICE conference has been filled with especially inspiring and moving speeches, particularly from the Venezuelans. Some of them–like RCTV president Marcel Granier or Oscar Garcia Mendoza, president of a leading bank that has never done business with government—are heroes of freedom, putting their own fortunes and personal liberty at risk in openly challenging the regime. They have the admiration of all freedom lovers here. They deserve all the support they can get in a battle that is only going to get tougher.

Ian Vasquez • May 29, 2009 @ 4:03 pm

http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/05/29/we-dont-want-venezuela-to-become-a-totalitarian-communist-state/
Title: Chavez's Deadly Star Turn In Venice
Post by: captainccs on September 08, 2009, 06:05:04 PM
Chavez's Deadly Star Turn In Venice

By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Tuesday, September 08, 2009 4:20 PM PT

Global Security: Radical chic hit its zenith in Europe Monday as Venezuelan despot Hugo Chavez strolled the red carpet to adoring crowds at the Venice Film Festival — just as he was plotting with Iran to destroy the West.


It was the thuggish Venezuelan dictator's moment of glory, just two days after thousands of Latin Americans bitterly marched against him in "No Mas Chavez" demonstrations on Friday.

The humiliation of that was over when the film industry crowds at the Venice premiere of Oliver Stone's "South of the Border" heaved forward to touch his clothes and the paparazzi begged him for his autograph. Not since the days of the Beatles has slavering from the thousands gone on like this.

See, Hugo's a movie star now, with Stone creating a propaganda film in his honor, just as Leni Riefenstahl did for Adolf Hitler.

Based on the film's trailer and Stone's own statements, the film emphasizes that the public has it all wrong about the clowning Chavez being a threat to the West. It's merely an image problem he has, brought on by unjust demonization from George W. Bush.

Security threat? What security threat? Pay no attention to those Middle Eastern and Colombian terrorists with Venezuelan passports — Hugo Chavez, after all, has created day care centers.

It's a particularly dangerous line of propaganda to be spewing these days. Outside Chavez's appearance in Venice, one wonders if the film crowds realized that Chavez is also on what he calls an "axis of evil" tour, forging deadly links with regimes as brutal as his own — or worse. As he smiled and waved to the Venetian crowds, playfully kissing a reporter after borrowing her camera, he was taking action on more serious fronts to try to take the West down.

A day earlier in Tehran, Chavez announced a "strategic" move to sell $800 million in gasoline to Iran, vowing to ship 20,000 barrels a day in exchange for Iranian "tractors." Sound innocuous? It isn't.

Chavez knows exactly what he's doing. Iran imports 40% of its gasoline and is vulnerable to sanctions on that vital commodity. For all the oil Iran produces, it lacks refinery capacity and must make up for its internal shortage with imports. Shutting off the gasoline spigot from the West is the mullahs' worst fear, given the damage it would do to Iran's economy as well as their grip on power.

That means gasoline is the one of the few points of leverage the West has over the Iranian regime as it seeks to check Iran's nuclear program. If Chavez's scheme succeeds, the West will have a potential economic weapon removed. Chavez's gasoline means the mullahs in charge should have nothing to fear from a shut-off.

This will give Tehran room for a more aggressive push to develop nuclear weapons to threaten the West. Amazingly enough, the first target for nuclear blackmail will likely be Europe, where Chavez once strode the red carpet to applause in Venice.

We should all be concerned. A nuclear-armed Iran will be the one with leverage. Once it gets the bomb, the West will have two choices: accept it and the resulting spread of nuclear know-how to terrorist groups and rogue states, including Venezuela; or go to war.

By his move to supply Iran with gasoline, Chavez ends the peaceful middle ground of gasoline sanctions.

Chavez plainly stated that this was his aim — over the weekend, he said Iran had "a right" to develop its nuclear program and that all the talk about Iran building a bomb should be discounted because there was "no proof."

If radical chic, which Tom Wolfe wrote of in the 1970s, was the self-destructive propensity of the privileged elites to sidle up to predators trying to kill them, what went on in Venice amounts to an intensified modern version of that very same decadence.

Tragedy will come of it.



http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?secid=1501&status=article&id=337302748931762&secure=1&show=1&rss=1

Title: The Emerging Axis of Iran and Venezuela
Post by: G M on September 09, 2009, 08:15:23 PM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203440104574400792835972018.html?mod=rss_opinion_main#printMode

SEPTEMBER 8, 2009, 7:27 P.M. ET.

The Emerging Axis of Iran and Venezuela
The prospect of Iranian missiles in South America should not be dismissed.

By ROBERT M. MORGENTHAU
The diplomatic ties between Iran and Venezuela go back almost 50 years and until recently amounted to little more than the routine exchange of diplomats. With the election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005, the relationship dramatically changed.

Today Mr. Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez have created a cozy financial, political and military partnership rooted in a shared anti-American animus. Now is the time to develop policies in this country to ensure this partnership produces no poisonous fruit.

Signs of the evolving partnership began to emerge in 2006, when Venezuela joined Cuba and Syria as the only nations to vote against a U.N. Atomic Energy Agency resolution to report Iran to the Security Council over its failures to abide U.N. sanctions to curtail its nuclear program. A year later, during a visit by Mr. Chávez to Tehran, the two nations declared an "axis of unity" against the U.S. and Ecuador. And in June of this year, while protesters lined the streets of Tehran following the substantial allegations of fraud in the re-election of Mr. Ahmadinejad, Mr. Chávez publicly offered him support. As the regime cracked down on political dissent, jailing, torturing and killing protesters, Venezuela stood with the Iranian hard-liners.

View Full Image
Associated Press Hugo Chávez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad meet in Tehran, Sept. 5.
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Meanwhile, Iranian investments in Venezuela have been rising. The two countries have signed various Memoranda of Understanding on technology development, cooperation on banking and finance, and oil and gas exploration and refining. In April 2008, the two countries also signed a Memorandum of Understanding pledging full military support and cooperation. United Press International reported in August that Iranian military advisers have been embedded with Venezuelan troops.

According to a report published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in December of last year, Venezuela has an estimated 50,000 tons of unmined uranium. There is speculation in the Carnegie report that Venezuela could be mining uranium for Iran.

The Iranians have also opened International Development Bank in Caracas under the Spanish name Banco Internacional de Desarrollo C.A., an independent subsidiary of Export Development Bank of Iran. Last October the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control imposed economic sanctions against both of these Iranian banks for providing or attempting to provide financial services to Iran's Ministry of Defense and its Armed Forces Logistics—the two Iranian military entities tasked with advancing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

My office has been told that that over the past three years a number of Iranian-owned and controlled factories have sprung up in remote and undeveloped parts of Venezuela—ideal locations for the illicit production of weapons. Evidence of the type of activity conducted inside the factories is limited. But we should be concerned, especially in light of an incident in December 2008. Turkish authorities detained an Iranian vessel bound for Venezuela after discovering lab equipment capable of producing explosives packed inside 22 containers marked "tractor parts." The containers also allegedly contained barrels labeled with "danger" signs. I think it is safe to assume that this was a lucky catch—and that most often shipments of this kind reach their destination in Venezuela.

A recent U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) study reported a high level of corruption within the Venezuelan government, military and law enforcement that has allowed that country to become a major transshipment route for trafficking cocaine out of Colombia. Intelligence gathered by my office strongly supports the conclusion that Hezbollah supporters in South America are engaged in the trafficking of narcotics. The GAO study also confirms allegations of Venezuelan support for FARC, the Colombian terrorist insurgency group that finances its operations through narcotics trafficking, extortion and kidnapping.

In a raid on a FARC training camp this July, Colombian military operatives recovered Swedish-made anti-tank rocket launchers sold to Venezuela in the 1980s. Sweden believes this demonstrates a violation of the end-user agreement by Venezuela, as the Swedish manufacturer was never authorized to sell arms to Colombia. Venezuelan Interior Minister Tareck El Aissami, a Venezuelan of Syrian origin, lamely called the allegations a "media show," and "part of a campaign against our people, our government and our institutions."

In the past several years Iranian entities have employed a pervasive system of deceitful and fraudulent practices to move money all over the world without detection. The regime has done this, I believe, to pay for materials necessary to develop nuclear weapons, long-range missiles, and road-side bombs. Venezuela has an established financial system that Iran, with the help of Mr. Chávez's government, can exploit to avoid economic sanctions.

Consider, for example, the United Kingdom bank Lloyds TSB. From 2001 to 2004, on behalf of Iranian banks and their customers, the bank admitted in a statement of facts to my office that it intentionally altered wire transfer information to hide the identity of its clients. This allowed the illegal transfer of more than $300 million of Iranian cash despite economic sanctions prohibiting Iranian access to the U.S. financial system. In January, Lloyds entered into deferred prosecution agreements with my office and the Justice Department to resolve the investigation.

In April, we also announced the indictment of a company called Limmt, and its manager, Li Fang Wei. The U.S. government had banned Limmt from engaging in transactions with or through the U.S. financial system because of its role in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to Iran. But our investigation revealed that Li Fang Wei and Limmt used aliases and shell companies to deceive banks into processing payments related to the shipment of banned missile, nuclear and so-called dual use materials to subsidiary organizations of the Iranian Defense Industries Organization. (Limmt, through the international press, has denied the allegations in the indictment.) The tactics used in these cases should send a strong signal to law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and military commands throughout the world about the style and level of deception the Iranians' employ. Based on information developed by my office, we believe that the Iranians, with the help of Venezuela, are now engaged in similar sanctions-busting schemes.

Why is Hugo Chávez willing to open up his country to a foreign nation with little shared history or culture? I believe it is because his regime is bent on becoming a regional power, and is fanatical in its approach to dealing with the U.S. The diplomatic overture of President Barack Obama in shaking Mr. Chávez's hand in April at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago is no reason to assume the threat has diminished. In fact, with the groundwork laid years ago, we are entering a period where the fruits of the Iran-Venezuela bond will begin to ripen.

That means two of the world's most dangerous regimes, the self-described "axis of unity," will be acting together in our backyard on the development of nuclear and missile technology. And it seems that terrorist groups have found the perfect operating ground for training and planning, and financing their activities through narco-trafficking.

The Iranian nuclear and long-range missile threats, and creeping Iranian influence in the Western Hemisphere, cannot be overlooked. My office and other law-enforcement agencies can help ensure that money laundering, terror financing, and sanctions violations are not ignored, and that criminals and the banks that aid Iran will be discovered and prosecuted. But U.S. law enforcement alone is not enough to counter the threat.

The public needs to be aware of Iran's growing presence in Latin America. Moreover, the U.S. and the international community must strongly consider ways to monitor and sanction Venezuela's banking system. Failure to act will leave open a window susceptible to money laundering by the Iranian government, the narcotics organizations with ties to corrupt elements in the Venezuelan government, and the terrorist organizations that Iran supports openly.

Mr. Morgenthau is the Manhattan district attorney. This op-ed is adapted from a speech yesterday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 11, 2009, 05:26:06 AM
A serious ten minute discussion in Spanish of the growing Iranian-Venezuelan nuclear connection.  Is Chavez trying to go nuclear?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qb9N5RrXpHA&feature=player_embedded

Hat tip to our man in Venezuela who first posted this on the Islamo Fascismo thread on the Spanish language forum.

Title: Re: Venezuela - water rationing
Post by: DougMacG on November 03, 2009, 08:34:29 AM
This could have gone in the water thread but looked to me like it exposes more weaknesses of the ruler and his governing competence.  I thought that under fascism-socialism you give up your freedoms but the trains run on time.  Solution is easy - ration service, blame the rich.  Sounds familiar.  Speaking of rich, I wonder if the Presidential 'Palace' has its water service rationed...

Water rationing for Venezuela's capital city
Nov 2 02:13 PM US/Eastern
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ad409ca172435301fb479b62661e070f.361&show_article=1

Residents Face Cuts in Water Service for as Much as 48 Hours per Week

Residents of the Venezuelan capital face cuts in water service for as much as 48 hours per week, after the government imposed rationing to stem a 25 percent shortfall in the city's supply, officials said Monday.

Officials said cuts in water service were to be staggered throughout Caracas through the duration of the current dry season, which is not expected to end until May 2010.

Weather forecasters blame the "El Nino" weather phenomenon, saying the periodic weather system has markedly reduced rainfall and created drought conditions.

Others blame the shortage on poor government management of the country's water resources, while President Hugo Chavez faulted the excesses of capitalism.

"What will the rich fill their swimming pools with?" the country's leftist leader asked recently.

"With the water that is denied inhabitants in the poor neighborhoods," he said, blaming the lack of sufficient water on "capitalism -- a lack of feeling, a lack of humanity."

The government recently created a ministry of electricity to help conserve the use of power, which also is in short supply.

Officials also urged the public to employ better conservation practices, like shorter showers and the use of less water when brushing teeth.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on November 04, 2009, 04:42:07 AM
Quote
"What will the rich fill their swimming pools with?" the country's leftist leader asked recently.


Evian. It's not fit for drinking but it's good enough for a swim.   :evil:


Embalse La Mariposa is Caracas's nearest water reservoir and as empty as our president's promises of a better life:

http://espanol.groups.yahoo.com/group/censo2005gdpa/attachments/folder/786149368/item/1274814776/view

Title: Re: Venezuela, water rationing
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2009, 08:49:36 PM
Amazing photos, Denny.  I wondered what part of this is natural disaster - drought - and what part is failed public leadership.  My thought is that poor countries often lack safe drinking water, but Venezuela is/was oil rich in a time of record oil prices.  If they did not build sufficient water infrastructure with their confiscated wealth, whether it should have been more reservoirs, rain capturing, purification, pipelines or desalination, then it was human failure. 

FYI for Chavez, swimming pools do not actually destroy water, nor do showers or toilets.

Al Gore has a company with waterless urinals.  Chavez could look into that.  Maybe their mutual friend Obama could hook them up. 

Obama in this situation would blame it on Bush, but Chavez with his endless term-stretching has no predecessor to blame anymore.
Title: Re: Venezuela, water rationing
Post by: captainccs on November 05, 2009, 01:14:55 AM
Amazing photos, Denny.  I wondered what part of this is natural disaster - drought - and what part is failed public leadership.  My thought is that poor countries often lack safe drinking water, but Venezuela is/was oil rich in a time of record oil prices.  If they did not build sufficient water infrastructure with their confiscated wealth, whether it should have been more reservoirs, rain capturing, purification, pipelines or desalination, then it was human failure.


Lack of water has been a perennial problem for Caracas. I'm not an expert on the subject but it seems to me that the Caracas valley is too small to catch enough rainwater for the current population. La Mariposa reservoir is just one of several that service Caracas. I believe there are two or three "systems" that bring water from further south. The water that reaches our homes is drinkable having been treated and chlorinated but it does have a lot of silt at times.

In Venezuela we have a dry season and a wet season. Officially the wet season is May to November so it is hard to blame the season for the lack of water. Our problem is quite clear, lack of maintenance, which is not exclusive to the waterworks but present in every government initiative. To be fair, this is not a novelty with Mr. Chavez, lack of maintenance has been emblematic of ALL our governments far back as I can remember. We build but we do not keep things up.

The most dramatic failure to keep things up led to the collapse of one of the bridges on the main road to the airport. See Viaduct Number 1 Is Falling Down (http://www.softwaretimes.com/files/viaduct%20number%201%20is%20fallin.html)

But let's not be too harsh on ourselves. Tough commute likely after Bay Bridge rod snaps (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091028/ap_on_re_us/us_bay_bridge_cable_snaps)

We have lots of water but in the wrong places: Lake Guri (http://kkypartners.com/29501.html)

Search for Lake Guri (http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&rls=en&um=1&newwindow=1&sa=1&q=guri+lake&btnG=Search+images&aq=f&oq=&aqi=&start=0)
Title: Water has been a long time problem for Caracas
Post by: captainccs on November 05, 2009, 03:07:18 AM
According to Esther Elena Marcano in her 1993 book La crisis del agua en Caracas: elementos para el análisis de la política urbana (http://books.google.com/books?id=Faoe-JVXiHMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=La+crisis+del+agua+en+Caracas:+elementos+para+el+análisis+de+la+pol%C3%ADtica+urbana#v=onepage&q=&f=false) the water crisis is 380 years old. The book is copyright five years before Chavez took power.


Here is the latest project "Tuy IV" (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/archive/index.php/t-900322.html)

The idea is to bring water from Rio Cuira, see the map

(http://proyectotuy4.com/img/Esquema.jpg)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on November 05, 2009, 10:08:40 AM
Denny, that was all very helpful.  Besides the bay bridge issues, I was thinking of New Orleans and Katrina, and we had a bridge collapse here with design failure, I-35 Mpls that I drove over twice the day it fell.  For 'safety' our highway dept had an automatic spraying system of corrosive salts onto under-designed gusset plates.  (Soon they will also run health care.)  So it is very fair to say public infrastructure problems are not unique to Chavez, but also fair to note that in all his power and wealth confiscation he did not successfully address the most obvious, crucial, 380 year old problem during his time.

I live where water is plentiful, but heat required to live here year round is threatened by a government that simultaneously thwarts nuclear energy while declaring all other real sources a pollutant.


Title: WSJ: Venezuela-Iran
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 15, 2009, 11:44:54 AM
Here's one from the Department of We Are The World: Hugo Chávez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will address the U.N.'s climate summit in Copenhagen. Say what you will about these two gentlemen—the support for terrorists, the Holocaust denial, the suppression of civil liberties—at least nobody can accuse them of being global warming "deniers."

On the contrary, the two leaders, who met in Caracas last month for at least the 11th time, have been nothing if not cooperative when it comes to environmentally friendly and carbon-neutral technologies. Bicycles, for instance: In 2005, Chávez directed his government to "follow seriously the project of manufacturing Iranian bicycles in Venezuela." An Iranian dairy products plant (no doubt ecologically sensitive) also set up shop hard on the Colombian border, in territory controlled by Colombia's terrorist FARC.

Ahmadinejad and Chávez: A new document sheds light on this radioactive relationship.

Then there was the tractor factory Iran built in Ciudad Bolivar. In January, the Associated Press reported that Turkish authorities had seized 22 containers going to Venezuela from Iran labeled "tractor parts." What they contained, according to one Turkish official, "was enough to set up an explosives lab."

But perhaps the most interesting Iranian venture is a supposed gold mine not far from Angel Falls, in a remote area known as the Roraima Basin. The basin straddles Venezuela's border with neighboring Guyana, where a Canadian company, U308, thinks it has found the "geological look-alike" to Canada's Athabasca Basin. The Athabasca, the company's Web site adds, "is the world's largest resource of uranium."

In 2006, Chávez publicly mocked suspicions of nuclear cooperation with Iran, saying it "shows they have no limit in their capacity to invent lies." In September, however, Rodolfo Sanz, Venezuela's minister of basic industries, acknowledged that "Iran is helping us with geophysical aerial probes and geochemical analyses" in its search for uranium.

The official basis for this cooperation seems to be a Nov. 14, 2008 memorandum of understanding signed by the two countries' ministers of science and technology and given to me by a credible foreign intelligence source. "The two parties agreed to cooperate in the field of nuclear technology," reads the Spanish version of the document, which also makes mention of the "peaceful use of alternative energies." Days later, the Venezuelan government submitted a paper to the International Atomic Energy Agency on the "Introduction of a Nuclear Power Programme." (Online readers can see the memoranda for themselves in their Farsi and Spanish versions. One mystery: The Farsi version makes no mention of nuclear cooperation.)

Iran would certainly require large and reliable supplies of uranium if it is going to enrich the nuclear fuel in 10 separate plants—an ambition Ahmadinejad spelled out last month. It would also require an extensive financial and logistical infrastructure network in Venezuela, not to mention unusually good political connections. All this it has in spades.

OpinionJournal Related Stories:
Mary O'Grady: Revolutionary Anti-Semitism
Robert M. Morgenthau: The Emerging Axis of Iran and Venezuela
Warren Kozak: The Missiles of October
.Consider financing. In January 2008, the Bank of International Development opened its doors for business in Caracas. At the top of its list of its directors, all of whom are Iranian, is one Tahmasb Mazaheri, former governor of the central bank of Iran. As it turns out, the bank is a subsidiary of the Export Development Bank of Iran, which in October 2008 was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for providing "financial services to Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics."

Or consider logistics. For nearly three years, Venezuelan airline ConViasa has been flying an Airbus 340 to Damascus and Tehran. Neither city is a typical Venezuelan tourist destination, to say the least. What goes into the cargo hold of that big plane is an interesting question. Also interesting is that in October 2008 the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, also sanctioned by Treasury, announced it had established a direct shipping route to Venezuela.

Finally, there are the political connections. What do Fadi Kabboul, Aref Richany Jimenez, Radwan Sabbagh and Tarek Zaidan El Aissami Maddah have in common? The answer is that they are, respectively, executive director for planning of Venezuelan oil company PdVSA; the president of Venezuela's military-industrial complex; the president of a major state-owned mining concern; and, finally, the minister of interior. Latin Americans of Middle Eastern descent have long played prominent roles in national politics and business. But these are all fingertip positions in what gives the Iranian-Venezuelan relationship its worrying grip.

Forty-seven years ago, Americans woke up to the fact that a distant power could threaten us much closer to home. Perhaps it's time Camelot 2.0 take note that we are now on course for a replay.
Title: Venezuela: Devaluation
Post by: captainccs on January 09, 2010, 08:58:16 AM
Hugo Chavez’ has his own economic Red Friday as he devalues the currency 63.7%
January 9, 2010


As usual it was an irresponsible and perverse performance by Hugo Chavez. The President that likes to go on nationwide TV to announce the most trivial things, from phantom death threats against him to handing out fake loans to people, did not dare to do the same  to announce a dramatic devaluation which is a consequence of his own irresponsible policies. But he even dared to call Venezuela’s foreign exchange controls “efficient”, despite the fact that he was taking this dramatic step and that the exchange controls have been not only the biggest corruption racket in the country’s history, but also represented a perverse subsidy to the rich, via preferential rates for travel and the import of some luxury goods.

And as if the old system was not bad enough, Chavez announced a dual Government exchange rate, triple if you take into account the swap rate, devaluing the official rate of Bs. 2.15 per dollar to Bs. 2.6 per dollar, a 20.9% devaluation, which will be applied only to foodstuffs, medicines, machinery and certain remittances abroad. The remainder of imports will suffer a 100% devaluation to Bs. 4.3 per US$, including supposedly travel allowances and airline tickets, although this was not included in the formal announcement.

Based on last year’s imports of goods, this implies that 45.9% of the goods imported will have a price increase of 20.9%, while 54.1% will have a price increase of 100%, for a weighted average of 63.7% for the increase in price of all of the country’s imports. Thus, the inflationary impact of the devaluation will be very high, much higher than the irresponsible estimate by the Minister of Finance that this will only represent a 3-5% increase to the CPI. It is my understanding that technical people in the Ministry of Finance were not even asked to calculate the impact of the devaluation, another demonstration of the primitive nature of this administration.

And as if the devaluation itself was not the result of the irresponsible economic policies of the last few years, the Government guaranteed that this will be only the first of such announcements to come, as it announced that the Central Bank will transfer US$ 7 billion of the country’s international reserves to the development fund Fonden, leaving reserves at US$ 28 billion, while monetary liquidity stands at a record Bs. 236 billion. Just to give you some perspective, the last time the official rate was devalued in 2005, M2 stood at Bs. 46 billion and international reserves were at US$ 24 billion. Thus, at the time there were practically 2 Bolivars per dollar of international reserves with the official rate at Bs. 2.15 to the dollar, while today there are Bs. 8.42 to the dollar with the lowest official rate at Bs. 2.6. (Although the weighted average of imports stands at Bs. 3.51 per dollar)

This is simply unsustainable, you can not increase monetary liquidity (M2) by a factor of 5, while maintaining international reserves constants and expect inflation to go down or the exchange rate to be sustainable at current levels. The laws of economics can be stretched but not violated (or raped really).

Given that inflation was already going to top 30% in 2010 and if we assume that the import component of goods consumed in Venezuela is almost at 50%, then one would expect an additional 30% spike on inflation from the announced devaluation. Not a pretty picture. The impact of the devaluation may be slightly smaller on the poor quantitatively, because since most food imports are done at the lower rate, and the poor spend more of their income on food, they will feel it less, even if still a huge effect.

There is, of course, a third rate, the swap parallel rate, which people think will actually jump on Monday. The Government said it will intervene in that market and that the Central Bank will be allowed to do so. With PDVSA selling dollars at Bs. 4.3, there is less pressure on the oil company to sell dollars in the swap market. But Chavez also said something like “the Government will control (or monitor?) imports with dollars from company’s own resources”. This seems to suggest that the Government may be planning to limit imports that are not made with CADIVI dollars. Just the initial confusion on this issue may actually lower demand in the swap market initially. (But the policy would be suicidal as shortages would soar) Thus, I would epexct a drop at first and then the swap rate is likely to rise, not only because there are more Bolivars out there and less dollars, but because the Government has practically approved the swap rate as a third rate, when it says the Central Bank will intervene, which should give more confidence to those that are still hesitant to buy dollars aggressively at the swap rate.

But additionally, there is the effect of the sharp drop in demand induced by the 60-plus increase in the price of imports. For the first few months, this should relieve some of the pressure in the swap rate as importers are more cautious on how much to import and the consumer contracts.

Combine the effect of the devaluation with that of the banking crisis and the already high levels of inflation and economic contraction and you now have stagflation on steroids and a very difficult political year for the Government. Hugo Chavez who based his popularity on the delay of implementations of realistic economic policies, has met his own Red Friday. Unfortunately, he is once again attacking the consequences and not the origin of the problems. Even worse, he is exacerbating them once again by removing US$ 7 billion from international reserves.

While it is true that this improves the ability of Venezuela’s industry to export, such exports were down 50% last year and the inflationary impact of the measure itself may block any ability to compete. Recall that many of these exporters, like the Government’s industrial complex, are forced to sell their dollars at the official rate, now Bs. 2.6 per $, while enduring the high levels of inflation of the country.

Finally, about the only positive aspect that this creates is that the country’s debt is likely to enjoy a huge rally in the upcoming days, as foreign investors perceive that the ability of the country to fulfill its international commitments has improved dramatically with the devaluation. And it has indeed. With this devaluation, PDVSA and the Government will have much more Bolivars, which relieves the pressure on the dollars the Government has, as well as on the need to issue new debt, which is music to the eras of foreign investors. Most investors find Venezuela’s debt quite attractive at even higher levels than these, but it is the specter of the Government issuing new debt constantly that has kept them away from it in the recent past. This eases this concern, at least until the end of the year.

Not a pretty picture for the Government, particularly because this is only a short term solution. Once again, if oil prices do not go up significantly, a year from now, we may be witnessing a similar performance of a new adjustment to the exchange rate. Amazingly, it is incredible that these same measures were not undertaken in September so that their inflationary spike would have been felt last year and not in 2010, an electoral year. The Government now has more money in its hands, but the people will have less, by the end of the year the same distortions and needs of the Government of a month ago, will once again be present.


http://devilsexcrement.com/2010/01/09/hugo-chavez-has-his-own-economic-red-friday-as-he-devalues-the-currency-63-7/

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 09, 2010, 07:14:10 PM
A WSJ NEWS ROUNDUP
CARACAS -- President Hugo Chávez said he ordered two F-16 jets to intercept a U.S. military plane that twice violated Venezuelan airspace on Friday in what he called the latest provocation in the South American nation's skies.

Brandishing a photo of the plane, which he described as a P-3, Mr. Chávez said the overflight was the latest incursion in Venezuelan skies by the U.S. military from its bases on the Netherlands' Caribbean islands and from neighboring Colombia.

There was no immediate response from the U.S. Defense Department or the White House.

Mr. Chávez said the F-16s escorted the U.S. plane away after two incursions lasting 15 and 19 minutes each.

The perceived threat of U.S. intervention has become a central element of Mr. Chávez's political discourse and a rallying cry for his supporters.

Foes say the president is hyping the idea of a foreign threat to distract Venezuelans from domestic problems such as a recession and inadequate public services. Mr. Chávez surprised the diplomatic world in December when he accused the Netherlands of abetting potential offensive action against his government by granting U.S. troops access to its islands close to Venezuela.

The Dutch government says the U.S. presence is only for counternarcotics and surveillance operations over Caribbean smuggling routes.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 10, 2010, 02:10:39 AM
In Venezuela the situation is getting worse by the day. No water, no electricity, high inflation (over 35% a year since 1984), dropping oil production, scarcity of many food items, VERY HIGH crime rate, kidnappings, a banking scandal with Chavista families at the center. List goes on and on.

Venezuela is and has always been very president centric. The president is seen as the Messiah who solves everything. One would think that by this time Chavez's popularity rating would be nil but the fact is that he has been successful at handing off the blame, left and right, to foreign powers and to "incompetent underlings." It's almost as if he had studied the screen play of 1984 where Big Brother is always cooking up foreign wars to distract the people.

This weekend, rumor has it that the devaluation was done to distract the people from the huge failure in water and electric management. I posted a long piece about the devaluation by Miguel Octavio of "The Devil's Excrement." He seems to have forgotten entirely about the water and electric problem. Attention span from 5 minutes to maybe two or three day!

The Caribbean Sea has been patrolled by the US Coast Guard for decades. Sailors should  be happy because piracy has declined considerably since the patrolling started. Let's not forget that, in the world view, the Caribbean Sea is the American back yard  as much an the Ukraine and Georgia are part of the Russian back yard and Tibet is part of China's back yard. As much as we might dislike this back yard concept, those are the facts on the ground. An expert politician can exploit these things to his personal advantage and Chavez does so masterfully.

Just a few days ago, a Colombian journalist, who sees through the ruse, accused Chavez of confusing Santa's sled with airplanes. And the game goes on.

Denny Schlesinger
 


Title: Venezuelan vice president resigns
Post by: captainccs on January 25, 2010, 07:13:40 PM
Venezuelan vice president resigns
Tue, 26 Jan 2010 02:42:07 GMT

Venezuelan Vice President Ramon Carrizalez has left the government, reportedly citing personal reasons.

"The President of the Republic… accepted the resignation that was presented for strictly personal reasons by Vice President Ramon Carrizalez," Communications Minister Blanca Eekhout said in a statement on state television, Reuters reported.

The vice president, who also held the defense ministry portfolio, stepped down from that post as well.

Carrizalez previously served as infrastructure minister and housing minister.

State-backed news network Telesur said Carrizalez's wife, Environment Minister Yuviri Ortega, had also stepped down, but the network claimed there was no link between the decision and any differences she had with the government.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117051&sectionid=351020704

See also

How Hugo Chavez's revolution crumbled (http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1556.msg34814#msg34814)

Title: Twitter #FreeVenezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 25, 2010, 09:59:02 PM
To follow the events in Venezuela via Twitter, use the hashtag #FreeVenezuela (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23FreeVenezuela)


Title: Police Fire Tear Gas At Anti-Chavez Protesters
Post by: captainccs on January 28, 2010, 04:55:00 PM
Venezuelan Protests: Police Fire Tear Gas At Anti-Chavez Protesters

FABIOLA SANCHEZ | 01/28/10 06:28 PM |

CARACAS, Venezuela — Police fired tear gas to chase off thousands of students demonstrating in the capital Thursday, a fifth day of protests against President Hugo Chavez for pressuring cable and satellite TV providers to drop an opposition channel.

Some of the protesters threw rocks at police in riot gear when officers moved to break up the rally outside the offices of the state-run electricity company.

While charging that the government is trying to curb criticism, the students also used their demonstration to call attention to electricity shortages plaguing much of Venezuela and other pressing domestic problems like double-digit inflation.

University students have taken to the streets daily since Sunday, after government pressure led cable TV services to drop Radio Caracas Television International, which has long been a critic of Chavez's socialist policies.

"We are not going to allow continued shutdowns of media outlets that tell the truth, and we are not going to allow ineptitude and inefficiency to continue," said Nizar El Sakih, a student leader.

Critics of the government say Chavez is responsible for domestic problems ranging from double-digit inflation to violent crime to rolling power blackouts.

The government says RCTV was removed for refusing to comply with a new rule requiring media outlets to televise mandatory programming, including Chavez's speeches.

Chavez accused students of trying to stir up violence as a means of destabilizing his government.

"There are some attempting to set fire to the country," Chavez said in a televised address Thursday. "What are they seeking? Death."

He said unidentified assailants armed with assault rifles shot at National Guard troops Wednesday in the city of Merida, where two soldiers suffered gunshot wounds. A military barracks in the city of Barquisimeto was also attacked, he said.

Chavez vowed to crack down on street demonstrations that turn violent.

"We cannot permit this," he said. "The state and the government must impose authority."

Ten students were accused of fomenting public disorder Thursday in the eastern city of Barcelona – a day after they led protests that ended in clashes with police, Fortunato Herrera, a lawyer representing the students, told the local Globovision TV channel.

Student leader Jonathan Zambrano told Globovision that 22 protesters were arrested in the city of Barinas. The students were released, Zambrano said, after university groups agreed to call off street demonstrations.

Two youths were killed in Merida on Monday – a day after the protests began. Dozens of people have been injured during the week's demonstrations.

___

Associated Press Writer Christopher Toothaker contributed to this report.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/28/venezuelan-protests-polic_n_441098.html

Title: PDVSA in Curacao
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 01, 2010, 09:11:01 AM
Venezuela: PDVSA Hints at Withdrawal from Curacao Refinery
Stratfor Today » February 27, 2010 | 2318 GMT



JORGE SANTOS/AFP/Getty Images
View of a state-owned PDVSA gas station in Caracas Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA may withdraw from the 320,000 barrel-per-day Isla refinery it operates in Curacao in protest of U.S. military “provocations” on the Dutch Caribbean island, Ultimas Noticias newspaper reported Feb. 27, citing an interview with Venezuela’s oil minister Rafael Ramirez. The Isla refinery, which processes sulfur-heavy crude from Venezuela’s Lake Maracaibo, is operated by PDVSA under a lease the firm has with the government of Curacao. PDVSA has long been trying to negotiate the purchase of the refinery from the Curacao government, but PDVSA is also in a severe financial crunch. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s heavy reliance on the state oil firm’s revenues to support his government programs and maintain popular support have stressed PDVSA operations, resulting in a decline in production and strain on Venezuelan refining operations. The Isla refinery in particular has developed into a financial liability for PDVSA since a Curacao court ruling in June 2009 decreed that PDVSA would have to pay roughly $3 million for violations in sulphur dioxide emissions, and $300,000 per day for further violations.

Venezuela is already facing serious refining problems due to mismanagement and a significant drop in foreign investment. Exacerbating matters is a growing electricity crisis that has had a significant impact on crude oil processing. The problems have turned critical enough that Venezuela, despite being a major oil producer and refiner, had to increase fuel purchases from abroad in Sept. 2009 to keep up with domestic demand. The Venezuelan government heavily subsidizes gasoline to maintain political support among the population, a policy that cuts further into PDVSA’s bottom line. Chavez has spoken frequently about the threat of U.S. military invasion of Venezuela, and his oil minister now appears to be using this pretext as a way to alleviate PDVSA’s financial obligations by withdrawing from its contract. The development does not speak well for PDVSA’s financial solvency and thus Venezuela’s overall political stability.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 01, 2010, 09:24:53 AM
Shell and Creole (EXXON) operated two of the world's largest refineries in Aruba and Curaçao as a way to avoid taxation in the producing country (Venezuela) and in the consuming country (USA). When Venezuela changed it's tax law these tax havens lost their appeal and the refineries were shut down with serious impact on the islands' economies. Eventually PDVSA would reopen one of the refineries as a measure of good will to our neighbor. I seriously doubt if these refineries ever had any value except as tax havens.

Now oil is becoming a weapon and therein lies danger.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Iranian Quds Force in Vz.
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 23, 2010, 09:54:25 AM
Iran: Quds Force in Venezuela
April 22, 2010 | 2253 GMT
 Text Resize:   



AFP/Getty Images
Iranian Revolutionary Guard special forces participate in military exercises in 2006Summary
A recently published U.S. Department of Defense report claims that members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (IRGC-QF) currently are operating in Venezuela. STRATFOR sources claim that the relatively limited number of IRGC-QF in Venezuela are focused on intelligence operations, paramilitary training for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and security assistance for the government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Though the IRGC-QF presence brings certain benefits to the Venezuelan government, Chavez also has an interest in keeping their proxy militant focus on Colombia.

Analysis
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates submitted a report to Congress in April on the current and future military strategy of Iran. Included in the report is a claim that the Quds Force, the overseas operations arm of Iran’s elite military force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has developed a significant presence in Latin America, particularly in Venezuela. STRATFOR sources connected to this Iranian military unit have confirmed a small but notable presence in Venezuela. Though IRGC-QF members in Venezuela are believed to be providing some security assistance to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan leader does not appear interested in incurring reprisals from the United States and is consequently trying to direct the anti-U.S. activities of the IRGC-QF toward neighboring Colombia.

As the Pentagon report states, IRGC-QF members usually are stationed in foreign embassies, charities and religious or cultural institutions as intelligence officers to develop ties with the Shiite diaspora and other potential allies. The U.S. military even has labeled incoming and outgoing Iranian ambassadors to Iraq as IRGC-QF members. On a more narrow scale, the IRGC-QF arms, funds and trains various paramilitary groups as an extension of Iran’s well-developed militant proxy arm. The IRGC-QF is believed to have worked with proxies to orchestrate major attacks against U.S. and U.S.-allied targets, including the 1994 attack on the AMIA Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia and a number of insurgent attacks targeting U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. By keeping this elite unit in reserve in various pockets of the globe, Iran has the ability to carry out attacks under plausible deniability. The reality of Iran’s retaliatory options — made possible by the IRGC-QF — has factored heavily into U.S. war-gaming exercises against Iran.

Joined by their mutually hostile relationship with the United States, Iran and Venezuela have grown to be close allies in the past several years. A good portion of this relationship consists of rhetoric designed to grab the attention of Washington, but significant forms of cooperation do exist between the two countries. STRATFOR sources have indicated many of the inflated economic deals signed between Iran and Venezuela and the establishment of the Banco Internacional de Desarrollo (an Iranian banking subsidiary headquartered in Caracas) are designed to facilitate Iran’s money laundering efforts while providing the Venezuelan government with an additional source of illicit revenue.

The Iranian-Venezuelan relationship also extends into the militant proxy world. Though this information has not been confirmed, STRATFOR sources claim the current IRGC-QF presence in Venezuela is limited to roughly 300 members. This estimate could well be on the high side, considering the likelihood that it includes all IRGC-QF paramilitary trainers and personnel working under diplomatic, business and religious cover. Many of these IRGC-QF members are focused on developing relationships with Venezuelan youth of Arab origin, who are viewed as potential intelligence and militant recruits. Some of these recruits are brought to Iran for training, and STRATFOR sources claim that several Hezbollah trainers are included among the IRGC-QF personnel. However, these efforts remain limited given the relatively small size of the Shiite community in Venezuela, believed to be less than one percent of Venezuela’s Muslims, which comprise roughly four percent of the population.

A portion of IRGC-QF members are believed to interact with militants belonging to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Colombia’s largest paramilitary group. The Chavez government is widely believed to provide direct support for FARC rebels and smaller Colombian paramilitary groups, but the Venezuelan president also appears wary of the IRGC-QF interaction with these groups. A STRATFOR source has indicated that IRGC-QF links with FARC are designed to give Iran the option of targeting U.S. interests in Colombia should the need for retaliation arise (for example, in the event of a U.S. military strike on Iran). The source says the IRGC-QF does not have a presence in Colombia but supports FARC from the paramilitary group’s sanctuary along the Venezuelan border. While it remains highly doubtful that Iran would be able to exert the necessary influence over FARC to direct their attacks against U.S. targets, simply having FARC as the main culprit for attacks in Colombia could provide Iran with the plausible deniability it seeks in such attacks.

The Venezuelan government appears to be benefiting in part by hosting the IRGC-QF, but, like Iran, wants to ensure some level of plausible deniability. A STRATFOR source claims that some IRGC-QF members have been integrated into Venezuela’s National Guard and police force, where they provide assistance to the Chavez government in containing the opposition. IRGC-QF and Hezbollah personnel also are believed to be involved in irregular warfare training for some Venezuelan army units, in addition to FARC. Chavez has publicly endorsed the concept of “asymmetric warfare” in his restructuring of the Venezuelan army to guard against potential military threats from Colombia and the United States.

That said, Chavez also is wary of IRGC-QF activities directed at the United States. According to the source, Chavez has strongly cautioned Iran against allowing IRGC-QF to target U.S. interests in Venezuela itself. Despite his heated rhetoric against the United States, the Venezuelan president does not wish to invite a strong U.S. reprisal and would rather keep their militant focus on Venezuela’s main regional rival, Colombia.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Freki on April 25, 2010, 02:38:16 PM
Emotional response = Monroe Doctrine....while Iran is not European...they are worse!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine)
Title: 25% for 2nd class citizens. 40% for the military.
Post by: captainccs on April 25, 2010, 02:53:31 PM
Chavez ordered a 25% across the board salary increase except for the military. They get 40%. Such is XXI Century Socialism. You buy whatever you need, not with your own money but with the country's resources. Venezuela is being run as if it were Chavez's private farm.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Rarick on April 26, 2010, 12:45:45 AM
Sigh, these brainless.........  We do not need the monroe docterineto act, have some Sog command guys make a bunch of Iraqis dissappear in the jungle..........  Economic use of force, remaining small enough tio be deniable, and if it goes sour, use the same game they use- deny and counter charge. 

Has the global crankiness or threat board ever been this high/full?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Freki on April 26, 2010, 05:30:52 AM
I was unclear. I guess.  My point in bringing up the monroe doctrine was for the US to ....."have some Sog command guys make a bunch of Iraqis disappear in the jungle"  In the past we used battleships and marines or cia, read the book bitter fruit, and have done so for a century or more.  My emotional response was...it is time to do it again :evil: :-D  The best response might be economic but we have to put a stop to this sort of thing before it escalates and causes some real problems.
Title: Hugo Chavez's Expropriation Binge
Post by: captainccs on May 17, 2010, 05:24:40 PM
Hugo Chavez's Expropriation Binge

Posted 07:06 PM ET

(http://www.investors.com/image/ISS0518_ph100517_640x480.jpg.cms)

It was everybody into the pool after Hugo Chavez took over the ranch of a former U.N. Security Council president who's been critical of the dictator.



Socialism: After 12 years in power and $960 billion in oil earnings, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is down to stealing private swimming pools to bring the good life to Venezuela's "poor." It's a new milestone on his road to ruin.

Acting like Robert Mugabe on cocaine, Venezuela's dictator went on a shopping spree over the weekend, confiscating one farm and industry after another.

First, a flour factory run by Mexican multinational Gruma was plundered, followed by the nationalization of a bauxite unit of U.S.-based NorPro. After that, a steel subsidiary of Luxembourg-based Tenaris called Matesi was taken, along with a group of transport companies.

Unsated, Chavez then announced — via Twitter — the takeover of the private University of Santa Ines in Barinas state. And for good measure, he launched new exchange controls, another form of expropriation.

One taking stood out, however — a 370-acre ranch in Yaracuy state that grows oranges and coffee and raises cattle with 38 shareholding farm workers. The scenic property on an otherwise desolate stretch of highway is owned by Diego Arria, Venezuela's former president of the U.N. Security Council. It's been in his family since 1852.

Arria had spoken out against Chavez, so Chavez got personal. "If he wants to farm now, he will have to topple Chavez, because this now belongs to the revolution," El Presidente pronounced.

Arria told IBD he's been pressured for two years with acts of vandalism and the kidnapping of farmhands. A month ago, Chavista Ministry of Culture operatives approached him in Norway, demanding that he quit criticizing the Chavez regime. If he didn't "play ball," he'd lose the ranch, Arria was warned. "But I never negotiate with thugs," he said.

Chavez's red-shirts finally acted over the weekend, opening the farm to "the masses" in a show of class warfare. Chavista leaders from the National Institute of Lands headed first to Arria's living quarters, rolling over his bed, pawing through his wife's clothing and desecrating a chapel dedicated to the Arrias' late daughter.

For their big photo spectacular, they hauled in 300 or 400 children to swim in Arria's swimming pool, ride the ranch horses and tour the main house — encouraging the kids to take "souvenirs." Chavez said it was all proof he was "socializing happiness."

In reality, the attack on Arria's farm was proof of Chavez's own failures. Unable to create any prosperity, even after 12 years in power and a trillion dollars in oil cash, Chavez still resorts to crude medieval plunder to bring any spoils to his supporters.

It would be logical to think Venezuela's oil earnings would be sufficient to build swimming pools for the children of Yaracuy. But Chavez's destruction of property rights and rule of law from these confiscations — now numbering 500 or so, have ended any prospect of prosperity coming to the country's poor.

Not a single expropriated property in Venezuela produces what it produced when it was privately owned. In a year Arria's ranch will be a wasteland, and Venezuela will find itself importing even more than the 76% of its food it now imports.

With disrespect for property rights goes disregard for human rights, as the confiscation of the Arria ranch attests.


http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=534341


Title: Re: Venezuela, road to ruin
Post by: DougMacG on May 17, 2010, 09:38:54 PM
Denny,  That's quite a photo and a story.  It must be fun to steal other people's wealth and destroy it but like the story says, it is a "road to ruin".  Why would anyone ever invest and create wealth again?  For some reason the socialists think wealth destruction is a good thing.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2010, 10:14:04 PM
Denny:

At some point one suspects that the laws of gravity and of supply and demand will re-assert themselves.  What do you think happens then?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 18, 2010, 05:26:12 AM
Denny:

At some point one suspects that the laws of gravity and of supply and demand will re-assert themselves.  What do you think happens then?

Rationing (http://tweetphoto.com/22844424)
Violent protest (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/05/protests_turn_deadly_in_thaila.html)

But  Cubans have lived under Castro's dictatorship for over 50 years and I don't know how long North Korea has been going on.  Most dictators die of old age in their own bed. As long as a totalitarian regime is ruthless it can hold on forever. Only the weak fail.

People hate me for saying this but: All rights derive from the use or the threat of the use of force. Americans didn't get their freedom with a ballot box, it took a revolution and a war of independence. This is essentially what Diego Arria has been saying and it cost him his farm.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 22, 2010, 02:54:44 PM
Denny:

At some point one suspects that the laws of gravity and of supply and demand will re-assert themselves.  What do you think happens then?

Crafty:

I live two blocks from where I grew up. I used to walk to school. Yesterday I retraced my boyhood walk. It used to be a nice neighborhood. Now it's a bit run down and the sidewalks are now an open market. I bought some fruit and vegetables. The stalls are manned by urban poor. They don't look any different from what they looked like years ago except that you see many more red shirts. They are just as polite as ever, as if nothing were happening in Venezuela. Of course, I did not talk politics with anyone so I don't know what they might be thinking. My impression is that these people were doing what people all over the world do. They were busy surviving.

When I go on Twitter I think I'm meeting mostly middle class folks and so called political leaders. The Venezuelans on Twitter are bitterly opposed to Chavez. It's as if I lived in two different countries, the anti Chavez middle class and the urban poor who don't have time for politics, who are too busy surviving.

What happens when we run out of supplies? People will go on surviving as best they can because that's the only alternative. In Thailand, when the government finally had its fill of demonstrators, they used live ammo on their own people. 80 or 100 dead? Who cares. Bury them and life goes on. It seems to me that in many places life is not as sacred as it might be in America. Remember Stalin or Mao, how many million did they kill? I don't mention Hitler because he was not killing his own like Stalin or Mao did.

What I do believe is that dictators can only be removed by force. In Thailand the opposition didn't have enough force, they didn't manage to win the military to their side as the people of Rumania did to get rid of Nicolae Ceauşescu. In Venezuela, Perez Jimenez fled when the military stages a coup, a counter revolution. Most dictators die in bed of old age. The only thing they cannot do is go soft. That is the end for a dictator.

Chavez is now 55. If he lives to 80...

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 22, 2010, 05:50:57 PM
Well, THAT was cheery , , ,

I remember reading , , , Barrington Moore I think it was in my last year at Penn and he wrote of revolutions due to rising expectations and revolutations due to falling expectations.  When the food and the money run out , , ,
Title: In Focus: Venezuela Militia
Post by: captainccs on May 22, 2010, 06:53:08 PM
Maybe it's this that has me depressed...


In Focus: Venezuela Militia
Posted May 10, 2010

A 54-year-old housewife fires a machine gun for the first time, lets loose a thunderous burst of gunfire and beams with satisfaction. A boot camp instructor shouts, “Kill those gringos!”

Thousands of civilian volunteers in olive-green fatigues train at a Venezuelan army base, where they learn to crawl under barbed wire, fire assault rifles and stalk enemies in combat. Known as the Bolivarian Militia, this spirited group of mostly working-class men and women – from students to retirees – are united by their militant support for President Hugo Chavez and their willingness to defend his government.

Chavez has repeatedly warned of potential threats: the United States, U.S.-allied Colombia and the Venezuelan “oligarchy,” as he labels opponents. He has called on recruits to be ready to lay down their lives if necessary to battle “any threat, foreign or domestic,” even though Venezuela has never fought a war against another nation.

1 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia03.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
The militia "is a personal army, a Praetorian Guard," said retired Rear Adm. Elias Buchszer, a Chavez opponent. He said despite Chavez's talk about repelling a U.S. invasion, the militia is really aimed at maintaining control, keeping him in power, and "making the country fear that if anything is done the militiamen are going to come out." A member of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia takes cover during military training in Charallave, Venezuela. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

2 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia01.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
A member of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia points her rifle during firing practice at a shooting range in Charallave, Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez has made a priority of building up the militia and has repeatedly warned of multiple potential threats: the United States, U.S.-allied Colombia and the Venezuelan "oligarchy," as he labels opponents. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

3 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia02.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia march during military training in Charallave, Venezuela. The militia is a practical tool for Chavez to engage his supporters, rally nationalist fervor and intimidate any opponents who might consider another coup like the one he survived in 2002. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

4 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia07.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
Most seem gung-ho for marching in the sun and getting their uniforms sweaty and dirty. Some cover their faces with black dust from the charred earth left by forest fires. They also enjoy the camaraderie, saying they spent one night hiking and watching a Chinese film. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

5 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia04.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
A member of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia puts on lip stick before a swearing in ceremony led by Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez in Caracas. Members of the volunteer force range from the unemployed to electricians, bankers and social workers. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

6 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia05.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
As part of the training, members line up at a firing range aiming decades-old, Belgian-made FAL rifles at red bull's-eyes on paper targets 80 yards away. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

7 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia06.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
Instructors, including both experienced militia troops and army officers, say one objective is to ready the militia for a war of resistance against an occupying force. They allude to insurgents battling U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

8 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia08.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561637)
Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia shouts slogans in support of President Hugo Chavez prior to their swearing in ceremony led by Chavez in Caracas. "We aren't here because anyone forced us to be. We're here because we're patriots," said Maria Henriquez, an unemployed 44-year-old who emerged covered with dust after crawling through a trench under barbed wire. As for Chavez, she said, "We'd give our lives for him." (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

9 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia09.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia gather in the dust after firing an anti-tank canon during military training in Charallave, Venezuela. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

10 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia10.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia run during military training in Charallave, Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez has made a priority of building up the militia and has repeatedly warned of multiple potential threats: the United States, U.S.-allied Colombia and the Venezuelan "oligarchy," as he labels opponents. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

11 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia11.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
The militia practice reacting to an ambush in the forest, camouflaged with mud-smeared faces and with dry grass stuck in the collars of their uniforms. They crouch for cover behind a pig pen and fire blanks into an abandoned building in a mock raid on hostage-takers. Spent shells clink onto the concrete as shots echo through the building, and one man shouts "all clear!" (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

12 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia12.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia celebrate after an artillery exercise during military training in Charallave, Venezuela. Some who belong to the militia say Venezuelans have nothing to fear, that their only purpose is to protect the country and that their guns are locked away in military depots when not in use. They also carry out missions including standing guard at state-run markets, and say they would be prepared to respond in earthquakes or other disasters. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

13 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia13.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez salutes members of his Bolivarian Militia in Bolivar Avenue shortly before the group's swearing in ceremony in Caracas. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

14 (http://denverpost.slideshowpro.com/albums/001/496/album-110615/cache/militia14.sJPG_950_2000_0_75_0_50_50.sJPG?1274561638)
Members of Venezuela's Bolivarian Militia shout in Spanish "Yes I swear" prior to their swearing in ceremony on Militia Day in Caracas. One of the militia's guiding principles is constantly drilled into the group as they salute in unison shouting: "Socialist homeland or death! We will be victorious!" (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)


http://blogs.denverpost.com/captured/2010/05/10/in-focus-venezuela-militia/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dp-blogs-captured+%28Denver+Post%3A+Blogs%3A+Captured+Photo+Blog%29&utm_content=Google+Reader


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 22, 2010, 08:37:10 PM
I can see why , , ,
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Rarick on May 25, 2010, 04:58:34 AM
Venezuela is "red booking", bad thing.  Monroe docterine just died.  Who is buying the Venezuelan oil that is financing all this?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 25, 2010, 05:34:49 AM
Who is buying the Venezuelan oil that is financing all this?


Uncle Sam and China. China is buying up resources all over the world as if there is no tomorrow. They need it to keep up the pace of their economic expansion and a bit of Red never did bother them.

From what I gather, with regard to Venezuela the US only seems to be worried about the drug trade and money laundering. The current US administration is ideologically aligned with world wide socialism, they only hit hard at true allies like Israel. Go figure. From the Arizona brouhaha it seems that the administration is more inclined to help your southern neighbors than American citizens.

With Obama in power America's enemies are rejoicing. Look at how Iran is thumbing its nose at America. The North Koreans happily sink a South Korean ship and test-fire missiles. Hamas and Hezbollah build up their rocket arsenals. Brazil and Venezuela have a nuclear deal with Iran. Never has America looked as weak as it does today, not for lack of military power but for lack of will, because the Democratic party is all in favor of UN style world government. You would be right back to taxation without representation.

Come November I hope you guys start  "kicking out the bums."

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Rarick on May 26, 2010, 02:51:52 AM
Hmmm, <insert rant> about how, once again this oil addiction thing is crippling our ability to act internationally according to our founding principles <enough said>  Iran also working to spread nukes,  welcome to a more dangerous worls kids.  Too bad we are all stuck in the same basket. 

I thought Venezuela was pretty average/stable for a country until this happened.  someone took their eyes off the ball during the Clinton years due to peace breaking out, and now we have these various messes to deal with.  Too many of them in our backyard..........
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on May 26, 2010, 07:20:32 AM
Rarick, "welcome to a more dangerous world"  - I agree.  What a shame for world peace and prosperity to not have a free and functional friend and ally in the space occupied by Chavez and his forces.

"this oil addiction thing is crippling our ability to act internationally according to our founding principles"

  - But this oil addiction thing to me is synonymous with freedom.  Freedom requires mobility and mobility uses oil.  A gallon of gas is the most safe, compact, stable, efficient, and still affordable form of transportable energy that we have.  Our refusal to produce our own that creates the import addiction and the current oil spill will set that even further back indefinitely.  You could drive a short distance in a form of an electric golf cart and I am fascinated by the transportation capabilities of homegrown compressed natural gas, but nothing else so far matches the performance of a gallon of gas.

"someone took their eyes off the ball during the Clinton years"

  - I have seen no indication that South Americans want U.S. intervention no matter how bad things get.  The low point I observed (from my secure midwest location) was under Bush and then Sec. State Colin Powell in August 2004.  The American diplomats did not know how to tell self-appointed observer Jimmy Carter to take a hike and send in real election observers (and Chavez would not have accepted real observers).  The polls were 40-60 against Chavez while he won 60-40, a 40 point swing.  Carter quickly signed on to the result, putting the Bush administration in a bad situation of either recognizing the result or rejecting it based on no evidence.  The appeasement did us no good as the anti-Bush anti-US rhetoric and relations from Chavez only increased.  Had we rejected the referendum result, we would have the same reality - an illegitimate leader running Venezuela.  Personally I am more taken aback by the 40% who favor this type of rule (same in the U.S.) than I am by the electoral cheating.
-------
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110005586
REVIEW & OUTLOOK  Wall Street Journal (from 2004)
Conned in Caracas
New evidence that Jimmy Carter got fooled in Venezuela.

Thursday, September 9, 2004 12:01 A.M. EDT

Both the Bush Administration and former President Jimmy Carter were quick to bless the results of last month's Venezuelan recall vote, but it now looks like they were had. A statistical analysis by a pair of economists suggests that the random-sample "audit" results that the Americans trusted weren't random at all.

This is no small matter. The imprimatur of Mr. Carter and his Carter Center election observers is being used by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to claim a mandate. The anti-American strongman has been steering his country toward dictatorship and is stirring up trouble throughout Latin America. If the recall election wasn't fair, why would Americans want to endorse it?

The new study was released this week by economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and Roberto Rigobon of MIT. They zeroed in on a key problem with the August 18 vote audit that was run by the government's electoral council (CNE): In choosing which polling stations would be audited, the CNE refused to use the random number generator recommended by the Carter Center. Instead, the CNE insisted on its own program, run on its own computer. Mr. Carter's team acquiesced, and Messrs. Hausmann and Rigobon conclude that, in controlling this software, the government had the means to cheat.

"This result opens the possibility that the fraud was committed only in a subset of the 4,580 automated centers, say 3,000, and that the audit was successful because it directed the search to the 1,580 unaltered centers. That is why it was so important not to use the Carter Center number generator. If this was the case, Carter could never have figured it out."

Mr. Hausmann told us that he and Mr. Rigoban also "found very clear trails of fraud in the statistical record" and a probability of less than 1% that the anomalies observed could be pure chance. To put it another way, they think the chance is 99% that there was electoral fraud.

The authors also suggest that the fraud was centralized. Voting machines were supposed to print tallies before communicating by Internet with the CNE center. But the CNE changed that rule, arranging to have totals sent to the center first and only later printing tally sheets. This increases the potential for fraud because the Smartmatic voting machines suddenly had two-way communication capacity that they weren't supposed to have. The economists say this means the CNE center could have sent messages back to polling stations to alter the totals.

None of this would matter if the auditing process had been open to scrutiny by the Carter observers. But as the economists point out: "After an arduous negotiation, the Electoral Council allowed the OAS [Organization of American States] and the Carter Center to observe all aspects of the election process except for the central computer hub, a place where they also prohibited the presence of any witnesses from the opposition. At the time, this appeared to be an insignificant detail. Now it looks much more meaningful."

Yes, it does. It would seem that Colin Powell and the Carter Center have some explaining to do. The last thing either would want is for Latins to think that the U.S. is now apologizing for governments that steal elections. Back when he was President, Mr. Carter once famously noted that the Afghanistan invasion had finally caused him to see the truth about Leonid Brezhnev. A similar revelation would seem to be in order toward Mr. Chavez.
Title: Unsustainable
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 05, 2010, 09:44:30 AM
Despite being a major energy exporter, Venezuela is currently mired in economic recession and suffering from record-high levels of inflation, a dismal condition known as “stagflation.” As the country’s economy deteriorates on a number of fronts, the government continues to struggle with an electricity crisis and worsening food shortages that are threatening to undermine support for the ruling party in the lead-up to September legislative elections. The Venezuelan government has tried to impose a range of currency controls, from currency devaluations to parallel market crackdowns, in an effort to resuscitate the economy. But the country’s distortionary and unsustainable currency regime not only is forcing more of the economy underground (leading to higher inflation and shortages of basic goods), but it is also catalyzing an elaborate money-laundering scheme that now appears to be spiraling out of control, thereby weakening the regime’s grip on power.

Analysis

From the energy and food sectors to banks and steel mills, Venezuela has been on an aggressive nationalization drive over the past four years in order to draw more money into state coffers while increasing the number of Venezuelan citizens who are politically (and economically) beholden to the state for their livelihoods. While this policy has brought a number of short-term benefits to the government, it has come at the cost of gross inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption, leading to an overall decline in Venezuelan productivity. In an attempt to redress the extreme macroeconomic imbalances, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was forced to make a substantial adjustment to the country’s fixed peg to the U.S. dollar. On June 8, the Venezuelan government devalued the bolivar against the dollar by 17 percent and 50 percent, simultaneously creating a dual exchange-rate regime.


The Currency Regime

An exchange rate of 2.15 bolivars per dollar was established for “essential goods,” such as food and medicine, while all other items used a weaker rate of 4.3 bolivars per dollar. The parallel market that used to exist in tandem (and where, unregulated, the dollar recently cost upward of 8 bolivars) is now strictly regulated by the Venezuelan government in a trading band of 4.2 to 5.4 bolivars per dollar, making the parallel market the third official exchange rate. For all intents and purposes, that parallel market was the closest thing to a genuine exchange rate that the country had because the other two rates were subsidized and access to them was restricted by the government.

Clearly there are problems with the current arrangement. Although dual or multi-tiered exchange rate regimes do provide the government with the ability to impose tighter capital controls, address economic imbalances and make imported goods more affordable, they are inefficient and difficult to manage. In most economic systems, the cost of capital is the single most important factor for determining growth and development, and when the cost of capital has three different values, entire sectors shift (and even disappear). For example, the ability to import food for a third of the real market price via the “essential” exchange rate largely destroys incentives to produce food locally. Unsurprisingly, countries with such regimes most often experience lower growth and much higher inflation than countries with a single, unified exchange rate. To mute the very high reported inflation (about 32 percent annually, according to Venezuela’s central bank), the government has militantly enforced price repression, which is beginning to cause shortages of even the most basic goods (since it makes more financial sense for businesses to stop producing altogether than be able to sell only at artificially low prices).



(click here to enlarge image)

Second, since the parallel rate was upward of 8 bolivars per dollar before the government began regulating the market, even the weakest possible official rate — the 5.4 at the weakest end of the official trading band — would still be overvalued. With dollars becoming harder to obtain in the regulated markets, more of the economy is being driven underground, and it is probably only a matter of time before another black market emerges (assuming that such a market has not already emerged). The existence of another parallel currency market would bring the total number of foreign exchange rates in Venezuela to four — the subsidized rate, the petrodollar rate, the now-regulated parallel rate and a new black-market rate — the consequences of which would be dizzying.

Moreover, because multi-tiered exchange-rate regimes skew the value of money, they also reward particularly creative individuals and companies who can figure out ways to shuffle goods back and forth through the exchange regime (for example, by placing an import order for a good at one rate, importing it at another and selling it at a third). The various and intricate incentives that arise from distortionary currency regimes invariably lead to spiraling corruption and fraud. Venezuela’s currency regime is no exception, especially since practically all public-sector entities have the ability to import via the most subsidized rate by virtue of their being public enterprises.


The Gaming Process

Conspicuously enough, warehouses have recently been discovered in Venezuela containing mountains of rotting food, expired medications and unusable electricity-generating equipment — at a time when Venezuela is ostensibly suffering from severe food and power shortages. However, there’s a very logical reason why the warehouses are filled with “essential” goods. The most apparent is that the mismanagement of state entities responsible for the purchasing and distribution of these goods renders them unable to keep up with the logistical demands of their trade. The state-run entity Bolipuertos (of which the Cuban government holds a significant stake) that runs Venezuela’s ports, for example, is years behind on its repair schedule. As a result, goods arriving at Venezuelan ports will often sit for weeks and months without the necessary electricity and refrigeration to preserve them. But the less obvious — and more nefarious — reason is that many of the ports are also mafia-run, and Venezuela’s state-owned companies and their subsidiaries are exploiting their privileged access to the subsidized exchange rate in order to enrich themselves. Simply put, there may be deliberation behind many of these shortages.

Before the government began regulating the parallel market, which more accurately reflected the forces of supply and demand (and thus the bolivar’s genuine value), private Venezuelan companies would finance anywhere from 30 to 40 percent of their imports through a dollar/bolivar rate of about 8. However, all state-owned enterprises can exchange just 2.6 bolivars for one U.S. dollar, provided that the dollar goes toward importing a good on the government-determined list of essential goods. So, the game is this: maximize the bolivar amount exchanged at the subsidized rate, minimize the dollar amount that has to be spent on importing the goods and pocket the difference.

Overstating the price, or intended amount, of goods to be imported — be they actually essential or simply deemed essential for the sake of participating in this racket — would provide the importer with extra U.S. dollars, as would directing the import business to friends in return for cash or favors.

For the importers to earn the “inefficiency premium” they charge on this process, they would want to be careful not to kill their golden goose by actually meeting the market demand for goods. So long as there exists a “shortage” of that particular good, the importers can make a strong argument for why they need to import even more of the goods — hence the “inexplicable” warehouses of essential goods containing unusable power-generating equipment and rotting food.


The Food Example

While any item on the government’s essential goods list is a potential candidate for the scam, food is perhaps the best “vehicle” simply because it is perishable, people have to eat and there will always be demand. The drawback to food as the vehicle, from the government’s point of view, is that bare shelves in food markets can quickly present an insurmountable challenge for even the most resilient of regimes. Venezuela imports about 70 percent of its food, most of which now comes from the United States, Brazil and Argentina (Caracas has sustained a de facto trade embargo on Colombian food imports over the past year). Since 2003, the government has placed heavy price controls on foodstuffs and has steadily harassed private food companies with charges of speculation and fraud to justify the state’s unwavering nationalization drive.

In Venezuela, the state-owned energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) — the country’s main revenue stream — is also responsible for much of the country’s food distribution network, a primarily cash-based business that makes tracking transactions all the more difficult. PDVSA subsidiaries work to restrict food supply in the country, thereby increasing demand and increasing their own profit when they turn around and sell food on the black market. Those that have squirreled away vast amounts of food can, for a hefty profit, supply the overwhelming demand for food on the black market. The fact that PDVSA is responsible for much of the country’s food distribution makes it much easier for those subsidiaries to corner the food market — they can both create the shortage (by hoarding food) and be there to satisfy the pent-up demand (with the food they’ve hoarded).

The two main PDVSA subsidiaries that operate in this particular money-laundering scheme are PDVAL and Bariven. PDVAL was created in January 2008 with a stated goal to correct the speculation of food prices through its own distribution network. Bariven, the acquisition arm of PDVSA, is tasked with obtaining materials for oil exploration and production, but it is also involved in managing inventories for PDVSA, a responsibility that extends into the food sector. From its headquarters in Houston, Bariven will place an order for food imports from American exporters in Texas and Louisiana. PDVSA Bank, a murky new entity whose creation was announced in the summer of 2009, was set up to facilitate banking agreements between PDVSA and Russian state energy giant Gazprom, and is believed to provide loans for such food-import transactions. (Bariven is also known to secure loans from major U.S. banks and is one of a select few state entities that has preferential access with the Commission of Foreign Exchange Administration in Venezuela to trade bolivars for dollars to facilitate these exchanges.) Bariven will then sell the food to PDVAL at a hefty discount, yet will report an even transaction on the books. The food will then sit on the docks until it is close to its expiration date, thus restricting supply in the state-owned markets and building up demand. When the food is already rotting (or close to it), it is sold on the black market for a profit (it’s no good to sell the food to the normal government distribution network, where the price of food is tightly controlled). Since PDVAL is the entity that collects all the revenue from state food distributors, the bolivar-denominated proceeds from its food sales can then be discreetly recycled back into PDVSA Bank, where the bolivars can be used again to place ever-increasing orders that will require more dollars and more imports.

The orders have increased to the point that the distributors are throwing out thousands of tons of rotting food. This is the root of a scandal that broke in Venezuela in May, when state intelligence agents began investigating the theft of powdered milk and found between 30,000 and 75,000 tons (estimates vary between state and opposition claims) of food rotting in warehouses in Puerto Cabello, La Guaira, Maracaibo and other major ports.
Title: unsustainable -2
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 05, 2010, 09:45:16 AM
Has the Scheme Run its Course?

The above example describes how the money-laundering scheme is playing out in the food distribution sector, but the same concept can be applied to the electricity, medicine and energy sectors. The priority of many officials working in the state-owned electricity company EDELCA is to enrich themselves through a similar money- laundering scheme in which they can exploit and arbitrage the exchange-rate regime, place exorbitant orders for parts, airbrush their books and then pocket the difference. Unlike the engineers working on the power plants, state electricity officials ordering parts lack technical knowledge and have no interest in consulting the engineers when placing the orders. The result is a mishmash of parts and equipment collecting dust in warehouses while power rationing continues across the country. Even more alarming is the fact that Brazilian engineers for Eurobras, a Brazilian-German-Venezuelan consortium, abandoned their work on Venezuela’s Guri dam in May after having failed to receive their paychecks from EDELCA. The work they were doing — the implementation of larger and more efficient hydroelectric turbines — was highly specialized and crucial to Venezuela maintaining its electricity output. Yet EDELCA, having already reaped its profits from placing the contract orders for the parts, apparently had little motivation to come up with the funds to allow these workers to finish the job. This is why, despite better-than-expected rainfall over the past couple months, Venezuela remains mired in an electricity crisis since the dilapidated electricity infrastructure is incapable of keeping up with demand.

The money-laundering scheme is prevalent in many strategic sectors, but the food sector brings especially unique benefits to the money launderers while raising the stakes for the Venezuelan leadership. Since food is perishable, it readily lends itself to hoarding and “screw ups” when it goes rotten, requiring more orders, more dollars and more imports. By contrast, while one can still make money by importing a dozen hydroelectric turbines or an expensive new oil rig, there are only so many excuses for having ordered the wrong piece of equipment, and the black market for such equipment is not nearly as good as the black market for food (which, again, is essential for survival).

While this elaborate racket has kept a good portion of state officialdom financially content, the warehouses full of rotten food, expired medicine and unused electricity equipment, along with the gross neglect and disrepair of the Guri dam — a vital piece of the country’s electricity infrastructure — indicate that the state is losing control over the “essential” sectors. In short, this racket has become so prevalent that it is now threatening the core stability of the state. This is why, despite the obvious political risk of exacerbating food shortages and basic supplies by increasing the costs for importers, the Venezuelan regime has put most of its effort in the past month into cracking down on the “speculators” in the parallel market. The cost of not doing something about these speculators has proved to be higher than the cost of alienating political supporters in the lead-up to legislative elections in September.

When the food scandal recently broke, the government was quick to name its scapegoat: former PDVAL President Luis Pulido, who, along with several other officials, has been arrested and put on trial for corruption. The Chavez regime is using PDVAL as an example to others who have taken the money-laundering scheme to dangerous levels. Many of those who are most deeply entrenched in the racket and have been less conscious of the long-term risk to the state are the more radical officials within the Chavez government, who are now being sought out by Cuban intelligence services working in league with the upper echelons of the Venezuelan regime. But these efforts could be too little too late. Cracking down on speculators who are operating outside the state’s jurisdiction may alleviate part of the problem and provide the state with a cover to expand its control over key sectors, but what of the vast numbers of speculators working within the state, particularly those higher up the chain who could pose a real threat to the regime’s hold on power?

Indeed, the government’s most recent attempts to rein in this food scandal are already showing signs of floundering. A June 26 ban on unregulated food sales passed in the wake of news about the scandal was revoked shortly thereafter by the president himself, who called on authorities to target the “food mafias” behind the gaming scheme as opposed to the sellers on the streets. The problem with such a directive is that those involved in the food mafias are likely to involve members high up in the regime, which makes the likelihood of enforcement questionable. The government is also introducing new legislation that aims to sideline speculators from the gaming process by changing the currency-for-food transactions altogether. The draft legislation, entitled the Organic Law for the Promotion and Development of the Community Economic System, calls for food in local communes to be “bought” and “sold” primarily through bartering. For exchanges of non-equal value, the legislation calls on communes to create their own currencies (independent of the bolivar) to buy and sell food on the local level. The local communes’ strategy is encompassed in a package of legislation dubbed “People Power,” which aims to undermine state and city governments while augmenting the power of community councils (220 local communes have been listed by the government thus far.) The majority of members of these communes would come from the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV,) thereby providing the regime with direct access to small, local governing bodies that will stay loyal to PSUV interests.

Though the idea of sidelining money launderers from the cash-based food industry makes strategic sense from the point of view of a government trying to reverse the crippling side-effects of this gaming scheme, a number of pitfalls can already be seen in this legislation. Introducing dozens of alternative currencies for a specific sector will further complicate the already-complicated two-tiered currency exchange regime that differentiates between essential and non-essential foods, while undermining an already-weak bolivar by cutting the local currency out of the food trade. A proliferation of local currencies also means additional layers of bureaucracy will be necessary to manage and implement the new law, and more bureaucracy in Venezuela means more potential for corruption. The local food currency would also eventually have to be transacted into bolivars, and deep-seated corruption in the higher levels of the institutions responsible for such large-scale transactions could end up greatly undermining the primary objective of the plan to root out speculation. In short, the government is still treating the symptoms, and not the cause, of this money laundering scheme and the proposals made thus far to rein in speculators look to have a number of shortcomings.


The Legal Battle

A crackdown within the regime’s inner circle to rein in this racket could turn politically explosive, especially when senior members of the Chavez government already appear to have piles of evidence stacked against them in U.S. courts. In mid-May, Chavez publicly warned in a speech broadcast on state television station Venezolana de Television that a U.S. district judge in Miami may soon be ordering the arrest of Chavez, Vice President Elias Jaua, Minister of Planning and Finance Jorge Giordani and other members of the president’s inner circle, “instead of the real culprits.” Chavez’s unusual warning is yet another manifestation of how the state’s money-laundering scheme has grown too large and too loud for the regime to manage. Venezuelan businessman and banker Ricardo Fernandez Barrueco, for example, was a close associate of Venezuelan political elites like Public Works and Housing Minister Diosdado Cabello and the president’s older brother, Adan Chavez. Barrueco is believed to have used his main business front, the Proarepa Group, to open a number of offshore accounts in the Caribbean, Lebanon, Europe and elsewhere to store funds looted from the state oil firm and its subsidiaries. Barrueco’s operation eventually got too exposed and he became a liability for the regime, leading to his reported arrest in November 2009. But silencing Barrueco alone will not assuage the regime’s concerns over the evidence sitting in courts in Miami and New York that could implicate senior members of the Chavez regime.


Other Beneficiaries

Considering the prevalence of the black market, it would appear logical that the country’s unsustainable currency arrangement is benefiting a number of other illicit actors. For those state entities experiencing cash-flow problems, local drug dealers (who have expertise swapping currency at multiple rates in multiple places) are believed to be providing local currency to at least some of these firms and thus filtering their drug money through the exchange-rate regime. The drug revenues are also strongly believed to form the basis of Venezuela’s financial support for U.S.-designated terrorist groups like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) — allegations which are now regaining steam following Colombia’s recent decision to release new evidence of Venezuelan support for FARC and ELN rebels.

Driving the U.S. interest in this issue is the connection between Venezuela’s money- laundering scheme and Iran. In recent years, in an effort to escape the heavy weight of economic sanctions, Iran has turned to Venezuela to facilitate Iran’s access to Western financial markets. Banco Internacional de Desarrollo (EBDI) is a financial institution based in Caracas that operates under the jurisdiction of the Export Development Bank of Iran, designated as a sanctions violator by the European Union as recently as July 27 and by the U.S. Treasury Department in October 2008 for providing financial access to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a major force in the Iranian economy and the prime target of the U.S. sanctions campaign. Though the extent to which Iranian money is funneled through Venezuelan channels is unclear, evidence has been building in the United States that reveals murky transactions among IRGC-owned companies, a Caracas-based EBDI subsidiary, PDVSA entities in Europe and the Caribbean and even banks in Lebanon. And with the U.S. sanctions effort accelerating in Washington, any state willing to enforce the sanctions and crack down on IRGC-affiliated entities can shut down these financial loopholes at any point. STRATFOR cannot quantify the Iranian-Venezuelan money-laundering connection, but any such connection to the IRGC would be a red flag for U.S. Treasury officials looking to fortify sanctions against Iran.

Combined with the developing money-laundering and drug-trafficking cases in Miami that threaten to implicate senior members of the Venezuelan regime, the Iranian link is yet another tool that Washington could use to pressure the Venezuelan government should the need arise. Putting the significant enforceability issues of such court cases aside, the district court attorneys preparing these cases against the Chavez government would not be able to launch them without the permission of the Obama administration, given the diplomatic fallout that could follow. So far, there are no indications that the administration is looking to pick this fight with Chavez, but the mere threat that Washington is now able to hang over the Chavez regime’s head is enough to make the Venezuelan leader nervous, hence his public warning to his constituents that Washington is preparing a grand conspiracy against him. The nightmare scenario for Caracas is one in which the White House chooses to expose the charges against the regime and use the evidence to justify a temporary cutoff of the roughly 12.5 percent of U.S. crude oil imports (47 percent of Venezuelan crude exports) that the United States receives from Venezuela for just enough time to crack the regime. Though Venezuela is far down on the U.S. foreign-policy priority list, making such a scenario extremely unlikely for the moment, Venezuela’s vulnerability to Washington’s whims is increasing with each day that this money- laundering scheme shows signs of unraveling.

In addition to the money-laundering scheme explained above, the Venezuelan economy is currently dealing with a rash of other problems:

The devaluation has only been partly effective and the short-term benefits have largely run their course. Devaluing helps recalibrate the bolivar by bringing it closer to its true (lower) value, but it does not address the underlying causes of continued bolivar weakness. Therefore the bolivar remains overvalued and the supply of foreign exchange (U.S. dollars) to the market is still restricted. Cracking down on the parallel market and regulating it will likely lead to the emergence of another black market. Consequently, the fixed exchange rate will again become overvalued, which will eventually require further devaluation (most likely after the September elections), which will generate more inflation.
These problems are forcing the government to take increasing control of and/or regulate large sectors of the economy, while state-owned companies that control the most strategic sectors are having cash-flow problems and are unable to manage these sectors.
The currency regime has given rise to widespread fraud and corruption; the scheme described above is just the most visible one. There is undoubtedly more corruption and fraud permeating the system, exacerbated by the multi-tiered exchange rate and the government’s restricting access to it.
The economy is becoming increasing reliant on PDSVA oil revenues while the non-oil economy buckles. Venezuelan non-commodity exports are too expensive, and the government must increase its imports of goods to make up for domestic production shortfalls. This makes the economy increasingly reliant on the dollar revenues generated by the state-owned oil company, which has experienced declining production for almost a decade.
All these problems combined are raising the political stakes for the Venezuelan government. The government’s response to the crisis has been to bolster its control of the economy — particularly its control over the most strategic sectors — in an effort to slow the economic decline. The government has shut down or nationalized hundreds of businesses in the wake of January’s devaluation for various stated reasons, including price gouging, hoarding and speculation. More recently, the government made sweeping changes to the mandate of the Venezuelan Central Bank to vastly expand its influence over the real economy. And in an effort to both clean the books and root out the speculators, hundreds of brokerage firms have been shut down by the state. Without the technical skills and basic logistical ability to manage enlarged state enterprises, however, the state is exacerbating the very symptoms it is trying to treat. Venezuela still has dollars to draw from the central bank and the state development fund Fonden to delay its day of reckoning, but it can no longer conceal the unsustainability of this economic regime.


Title: Killing Fields of Caracas and a brave, silent protest of Chavez
Post by: DougMacG on August 26, 2010, 08:59:34 AM
Maybe this brave and articulate young Venezuelan could carry the flag forward in the next election...

(http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/tt114/dougmacg/Venezuelaflag.jpg)

IBD Editorial

 The Killing Fields Of Caracas
 08/25/2010

Socialism: Quick, what's the murder capital of the world: Kabul? Juarez? Try Caracas, Venezuela, a city whose dictator, Hugo Chavez, has made murder a means of extending his control.

The silent protest at Monday night's Miss Universe Pageant in Las Vegas was invisible to nearly everyone — except Venezuelans. On her final catwalk, the ranking Miss Universe, Stefania Fernandez, suddenly whipped out a Venezuelan flag in a patriotic but protocol-breaking gesture.

Fernandez waved her flag for the same reason Americans waved theirs after 9/11 — to convey resolution amid distress. Her flag had seven stars, significant because Chavez had arbitrarily added an eighth, making any use of a difficult-to-find seven-star banner an act of defiance.

Fernandez's countrymen went wild with joy on bulletin boards and Facebook, showing just how worried they are about their country. Their greatest fear is violent crime.

Ever since Chavez became president in 1999, Venezuelan cities have become hellholes in which murder rates have more than quadrupled. At 233 per 100,000, or one murder every 90 minutes, the rate in Caracas now tops that of every war zone in the world, according to an official National Statistics Institute study released Wednesday.

In fact, crime is the defining fact of life in today's Venezuela. About 96% of all murder victims are poor and lower-middle class, the very people Chavez claims to represent. "Don't venture into barrios at any time of the day, let alone at night," warns the Lonely Planet guide to Venezuela to hardy adventure travelers.

By contrast, the murder rate in cartel-haunted Juarez, Mexico, is 133 per 100,000, with Mexico's overall rate 8 per 100,000, about the same as Wichita, Kan. Colombia, fighting a narcoterror war since 1964, has an overall rate of 37 per 100,000, slightly higher than Baltimore at 36.9. The overall U.S. rate is 5.4.

Make no mistake, a murder rate like Caracas' is a crime against humanity. The absence of personal security renders all other human rights moot. By coincidence, that's just what Chavez seeks to eliminate as he turns his country into a Cuba-style socialist state. Instead of Castroite firing squads or Stalinesque gulags, Chavez outsources the dirty work of socialism to criminals while throwing dissidents in jail and threatening to censor newspapers.

He may try to suppress the Dante-like photos of corpses piled high at the Caracas morgue from the El Nacional newspaper, but the hard fact is that Chavez is responsible for what's going on.
Title: September 26, election day
Post by: captainccs on September 25, 2010, 10:38:30 AM
Tomorrow, September 26, is election day in Venezuela. We will be voting for members to the National Assembly, our version of Congress. After difficult and prolonged haggling, the opposition managed to agree on a unity slate. I wonder just effective this will be. In our system, half the candidates are elected by name, just like in the USA but the other half are elected by party list and I have no idea who might be on those lists. These lists could have a very strong dilutive effect on the results. In any case, this is the best chance we have had in a long time to take back the legislative body now controlled entirely by Chavez through his puppets.

The voting process is entirely mechanized and really well organized. We all have a national ID card. Enter your "Cédula" (the ID number) and you'll get all the info about your polling station.

http://votojoven.com/vota/

You don't have a number to enter? Try this one:  22642082

The gentleman is Henry Castellanos Garzón alias "ROMAÑA." He will not  be voting tomorrow because he is dead! He was killed by the Colombian military in the recent raid that killed "Mono Jojoy" the second in command in the narco-terrorist FARC.

El abatido jefe de secuestros del 'Mono Jojoy' era militante del PSUV de Hugo Chávez (http://noticiascentro.com/noticias/detalle/4317)

These are the Chavez allies!

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 25, 2010, 07:23:00 PM
Captain:

Good to have you with us again.  Your reports are always appreciated.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on September 26, 2010, 07:08:37 AM
Miguel Octavio of the The Devil’s Excrement blog is on election duty and he is reporting live from his polling station via his cell phone. If you want a minute by minute update, follow him at:

A day in the life of an electoral worker in Venezuela (http://devilsexcrement.com/2010/09/25/a-day-as-an-electoral-worker-in-venezuela/)
September 25, 2010
Title: Gerrymandering: How to "legally" steal an election
Post by: captainccs on September 27, 2010, 08:32:13 AM
Chavismo brags about having the most modern electoral system in the world, it's all computers and telecommunications and the data arrives at the CNE just as soon as the voting stations are tallied. Even Iran can report results in two or three hours but it took the Venezuelan CNE about eight to give "partial" results. Think what you will, I think data massage, not even Chavistas can be this incompetent. Maybe I'm over estimating them.

The National Assembly seats 165 deputies. Anyway, with 52% of the popular vote the opposition only gets 62 seats vs. 94 for Chavismo which leaves 9 undecided. The frightening aspect of this balance is that Chavismo retains 2/3 majority which they can use to pass "major" laws (leyes organicas) which they have used to further the expansion of XXI Century Socialism.


Frankly, I tire of politics. I tire of TV. I haven't had a TV set in my home for about 17 years.  If you want to add days to your life, I recommend you get rid of yours, it frees up time to live a life and not waste away as a couch potato. These days I keep up with the news via the WWW and the email I get from a select group of friends. Since I'm not as up to date as I could or should be with our political parties I had to study the voting card to see what was happening.

Can you believe there were 56 political parties represented in my district? It's mind boggling that such a system could ever produce a working government except through hour long haggling in smoke filled back rooms where the pork is cut up and parceled out. How can anything good for the country come from that? The opposition through the so called "Unity Table" (Mesa de Unidad MUD) and primary elections, managed to pick a single set of candidates backed by well over 95% of the opposition parties. Considering the distorted results achieved through gerrymandering against a united front, think what the results would have been against a divided opposition. Curiously, it was Chavismo that was divided, one or two Chavista parties broke ranks and fielded their own candidates. But even that does not seem to have helped the opposition in the final tally.


Sorry for the over long introduction but some background was necessary. I studied the 56 cards trying to figure out who was what. The Chavista parties were easy enough to single out (and discard) but that still left about 40 opposition parties. Can you believe it, there is not a single right wing party in the whole lot! Miguel Octavio of The Devil's Excrement fame, a banker, is voting for Causa R because he likes their leader. Causa R (what's left of it) happens to be a left wing party born of the Labor Union movement. What the  heck is a banker doing backing the Labor Movement just because this party is currently opposed to Chavez?

Do you see the muddle we are in?

When Venezuelans go to the poll we are offered three choices:

XXI Century Socialism
XX Century Socialism
IXX Century Socialism

Hard to tell which is worse. We know the XXI Century Socialism is the Road to Ruin. IXX Century Socialism led to communism and the failed Soviet Union. F. A. Hayek famously called XX Century Socialism The Road to Serfdom. Has Venezuela gone mad? Maybe not.

When the land is not overly bountiful Man has to work to make a living. As societies grow in size, the work of individuals has be organized and no better way has been found than Adam Smith's "invisible hand" of the market and free markets imply capitalism. When the land is oversupplied with wealth, there is much less need of work, just reach up and grab a banana or drill down and find oil. Since no work is required, the mechanism of wages is not available to spread the wealth. Instead, you distribute the wealth through government programs and subsidies.  This is not what socialism was supposed to be but it is what socialism has become.

There are hundred of "reasons" to give people subsidies: because they are old, or young, or students, or pregnant, or invalid, or out of work, or sick, or any other reason you care to come up with. All of a sudden, healthcare and food are "human rights" which they were not when we had to work for them.

One can live in a socialistic society like Venezuela has been for decades provided that your economic freedom is not impaired, as long as government is willing to let a free market coexist with government run socialism. During the 40 years between General Marcos Perez Jimenez and Lieutenant Colonel Hugo Chavez we had eight more or less pragmatic socialist governments and life was mostly good, at least initially. Socialism or mismanagement eventually wore the economy down and social unrest brought our current despot to power. But the problem with Chavez is not that he is a socialist. The problem is that he is an idealist who thinks that only His way should be allowed. His inferiority complex is ruining my country!

Denny Schlesinger


Causa R (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_Cause)

The Road to Serfdom: Fiftieth Anniversary Edition (http://www.amazon.com/Road-Serfdom-Fiftieth-Anniversary/dp/0226320618) F. A. Hayek (Author), Milton Friedman (Introduction)
Title: Venezuela: Chavez fails to reach critical two-thirds majority
Post by: DougMacG on September 27, 2010, 01:30:38 PM
Thank you Denny for firsthand accounts.  The whole Chavez story is very sad for the people.  I hope you will tell us what you think the U.S. can do to help; I assume it is nothing.  Here we seem to be headed down a similar road.  Now we have an uprising, the tea party, and maybe a shift in one body of congress.  After that I fear we will head further down the same road, what you call 21st century socialism, forced redistributionism and a dismantling of the freedoms and pillars that used to make this a great place.
-----------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/27/AR2010092702257.html

Chavez fails to reach critical two-thirds majority in Venezuelan assembly
   
By Juan Forero
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, September 27, 2010; 10:51 AM

Voters in Venezuela have stopped President Hugo Chavez from obtaining the two-thirds majority the Socialist leader said he needed in the National Assembly to effortlessly pass what he calls critical reforms.

According to incomplete returns released Monday, Chavez's United Socialist Party on Sunday won at least 94 of 165 seats, while his most ardent foes took 60. The rest of the votes had either not been determined or went to a small leftist party...
Title: Re: Venezuela vote
Post by: DougMacG on September 28, 2010, 11:17:39 AM
Rough translation (freetranslation.com) of one paragraph of Denny's last Spanish post:

Opposition wins same number of votes to Chavez party but they win 37 fewer seats.  Why is that? No answer, attack the questioner.
--------------
More than a question, was "the" question:  "The difference among the votes obtained by its party, the Socialist Party United of Venezuela (PSUV), and the ones that has achieved the Table of the Democratic Unit (MUD) is of barely 100,000.  And it is difficult to understand that having obtained almost the same number of votes, the opposition have reached 37 seats less than the PSUV [finally would be from 33 the difference].  I ask me if would be being confirmed the thesis of the opposition that maintains that the redistribution of the electoral circuits was done with the intention of favoring to the PSUV or that perhaps the vote of the PSUV is worth for two. ..”.  What responded him Chávez?  Nothing.  Did not it know that to respond him and, faithful to its style, attacked against her. 
Title: Re: Venezuela: Chavez fails to reach critical two-thirds majority
Post by: captainccs on September 28, 2010, 12:14:59 PM
Thank you Denny for firsthand accounts.  The whole Chavez story is very sad for the people.  I hope you will tell us what you think the U.S. can do to help; I assume it is nothing.  Here we seem to be headed down a similar road.  Now we have an uprising, the tea party, and maybe a shift in one body of congress.  After that I fear we will head further down the same road, what you call 21st century socialism, forced redistributionism and a dismantling of the freedoms and pillars that used to make this a great place.


The only thing I wish from America would be for Obama and various Democrats and Hollywood types to stop backing Chavez. Unfortunately, Socialism is a world wide movement. They don't deny it, on the contrary, that is one more way they seek power. Not only that, they have co-opted the UN

Quote
On 20 September the Socialist International held the annual meeting of its Presidium with the participation of Heads of State and Government at the United Nations Headquarters.

http://www.socialistinternational.org/viewArticle.cfm?ArticleID=2072


XXI Century Socialism is the official Chavez slogan for his movement. He has publicly called himself a Marxist.

Countries have to relearn forgotten principles. America in great measure has discarded the principles of the Founding Fathers but maybe through the Tea Party movement, a true grass roots movement, there will be a revival of these principles. Yes, there are a lot of similarities between Chavez and Obama. The one big difference is that Chavez was able to rewrite the Constitution and to rearrange all the forces in Venezuela so as to take absolute control of the country. He has also committed treason by letting Cuba run the place. He even forced the Armed Forces to adopt the Cuban slogan: "Patria, Socialism o Muerte"  (Homeland, Socialism or Death).

Denny Schlesinger
 




Title: Venezuela-Columbia-FARC
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 08, 2010, 09:12:30 AM
Summary
There are a number of indications that the Venezuelan government has expanded its cooperation with Colombia to include possible intelligence sharing and restricting the movement of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia rebels in Venezuelan territory. This cooperation will help strengthen a shaky rapprochement between Bogota and Caracas and sheds light on the growing vulnerabilities of the Venezuelan regime.

Analysis
STRATFOR sources within the Colombian security apparatus recently indicated that during the past two months, the Venezuelan government has taken steps to undermine a safe haven for members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) along Venezuela’s border with Colombia. The sources claim Venezuelan military officials did not encounter substantial resistance when they quietly told the FARC leaders to pack up their camps. Colombia was already making steady progress in its offensive against the FARC, but once FARC members were flushed across the border back into Colombia, the Colombian military had fresh targets and leads to pursue. The most notable recent success for Colombia was the Sept. 22 killing of FARC deputy and senior military commander Victor Julio Suarez Rojas (aka Jorge Briceno and El Mono Jojoy) in a long-planned military operation in the La Macarena region of Meta department in central Colombia. Though it is unclear whether Venezuelan cooperation had anything to do with the operation, Suarez Rojas was apparently concerned about a drop in Venezuelan support in the days leading up to his death.

Prior to the Sept. 22 operation, Suarez Rojas allegedly wrote an e-mail acquired by the Colombian government attempting to elicit support from members of the Union of South American Nations, in which he claimed responsibility on behalf of FARC for an Aug. 12 vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack on the Radio Caracol headquarters in Bogota. In the e-mail, which was read to the press by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos on Oct. 2, Suarez Rojas said the FARC’s autonomy in its operations had “angered the Cubans, Chavez and company. For this reason, they are disrespectful and at times joined the ideological struggle of the enemy (i.e. the Colombian government) to fight us.”

If the intercepted e-mail was, in fact, written by the slain FARC commander, the message is highly revealing of the tensions that have been building between the rebel group and the Venezuelan regime. Though Venezuela continues to deny the claims, Colombia has presented evidence that FARC members have for some time operated freely in the porous borderland between Venezuela and Colombia. The Venezuelan armed forces are believed to provide tacit support to these rebels, along with the Cuban advisers present throughout the Venezuelan security apparatus, and the FARC and military together benefit from the rampant drug trade along the border. The Venezuelan government shares a leftist ideology with the FARC that is often cited as the main factor linking the two. But in reality, just as Pakistan has backed Kashmiri militants against India and Iran backs Hezbollah against Israel, Venezuela’s support for the FARC is primarily designed to constrain its main regional adversary — and thus distract Bogota from entertaining any military endeavors that could threaten Venezuela’s territorial integrity, particularly the resource-rich Lake Maracaibo region. Venezuela’s fears of Colombia are also amplified to a large degree by the close defense relationship Bogota shares with Caracas’ other key adversary: the United States.

But a strategy to back the FARC also comes with risks, as Venezuela was reminded in mid-July when Colombia unveiled to the Organization of American States what it called irrefutable photographic evidence of Venezuela harboring FARC rebels. Though Venezuela vehemently denied the claims and painted the Colombian move as a power struggle between then-outgoing Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez and incoming Santos, there appears to have been real concern among the upper echelons of the Venezuelan regime that Colombia had a smoking gun to justify hot-pursuit operations and preemptive raids against the FARC in Venezuelan territory.

Generally, Venezuela will exploit the threat of a Colombian attack to rally the population around the regime and distract Venezuelans from the domestic economic turmoil and rampant violent crime. This time, however, the Venezuelan government publicly downplayed the threat and apparently made concrete moves to cooperate with the Colombians against the FARC. That decision is revealing of the regime’s insecurity, as it is already afflicted by a deepening economic crisis fueled by rampant corruption schemes in state-owned sectors. Following the Sept. 26 legislative elections in which the ruling party lost its two-thirds supermajority, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is now scrambling to get legislation passed that would augment his executive power before January 2011, when more seats in the National Assembly will be filled by the opposition. Rather than gamble that Colombia would refrain from military action, the Venezuelan government has instead offered its cooperation to keep Bogota at bay.

The extent and sustainability of that cooperation remains unclear, however. Venezuela is exercising caution in how it deals with Colombia for now, but the country’s internal conflicts are expected to grow. The weaker Venezuela becomes, the more anxious it will be about its rivals’ intentions. Moreover, Venezuela will want to avoid inviting a backlash by FARC rebels who are now feeling abandoned by their external patron. The Venezuelan regime will thus try to strike a balance, offering as much cooperation as necessary to keep relations steady with Colombia, while holding on to the FARC card as leverage for rougher days to come.
Title: Rogt/milt
Post by: G M on October 08, 2010, 09:25:12 AM
How's the socialism work out for you?

Thank you Denny for firsthand accounts.  The whole Chavez story is very sad for the people.  I hope you will tell us what you think the U.S. can do to help; I assume it is nothing.  Here we seem to be headed down a similar road.  Now we have an uprising, the tea party, and maybe a shift in one body of congress.  After that I fear we will head further down the same road, what you call 21st century socialism, forced redistributionism and a dismantling of the freedoms and pillars that used to make this a great place.


The only thing I wish from America would be for Obama and various Democrats and Hollywood types to stop backing Chavez. Unfortunately, Socialism is a world wide movement. They don't deny it, on the contrary, that is one more way they seek power. Not only that, they have co-opted the UN

Quote
On 20 September the Socialist International held the annual meeting of its Presidium with the participation of Heads of State and Government at the United Nations Headquarters.

http://www.socialistinternational.org/viewArticle.cfm?ArticleID=2072


XXI Century Socialism is the official Chavez slogan for his movement. He has publicly called himself a Marxist.

Countries have to relearn forgotten principles. America in great measure has discarded the principles of the Founding Fathers but maybe through the Tea Party movement, a true grass roots movement, there will be a revival of these principles. Yes, there are a lot of similarities between Chavez and Obama. The one big difference is that Chavez was able to rewrite the Constitution and to rearrange all the forces in Venezuela so as to take absolute control of the country. He has also committed treason by letting Cuba run the place. He even forced the Armed Forces to adopt the Cuban slogan: "Patria, Socialism o Muerte"  (Homeland, Socialism or Death).

Denny Schlesinger
 





Title: Chávez's Secret Nuclear Program
Post by: DougMacG on October 09, 2010, 07:09:45 AM
Note: Readers here knew this from Denny's posts since at least Oct.8 2009 http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1090.msg31922#msg31922 and  May 25 2010 above: "Brazil and Venezuela have a nuclear deal with Iran."

The consequences from the U.N. or the Obama Administration will be what?

------------------------
http://www.realclearworld.com/2010/10/06/hugo_chavezs_secret_nuclear_program_115986.html

Chávez's Secret Nuclear Program
It's not clear what Venezuela's hiding, but it's definitely hiding something -- and the fact that Iran is involved suggests that it's up to no good.
BY ROGER F. NORIEGA | OCTOBER 5, 2010

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez admitted last week that his government is "carrying out the first studies" of a nuclear program. He attempted to portray it as an innocuous program designed solely for peaceful purposes.

On Sept. 21, I held a briefing for journalists and regional experts where I revealed for the first time information about Chavez's nuclear program and his troubling and substantial collaboration with Iran. This research -- conducted during the past 12 months by a team of experts who analyzed sensitive material obtained from sources within the Venezuelan regime -- paints a far darker picture of Chavez's intentions.

Chávez has been developing the program for two years with the collaboration of Iran, a nuclear rogue state. In addition to showing the two states' cooperation on nuclear research, these documents suggest that Venezuela is helping Iran obtain uranium and evade international sanctions, all steps that are apparent violations of the U.N. Security Council resolutions meant to forestall Iran's illegal nuclear weapons program.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 09, 2010, 07:33:13 AM
The article goes on to discuss that it looks like Iran is getting Venezuelan uranium and more.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on October 09, 2010, 07:35:01 AM
The consequences from the U.N. or the Obama Administration will be what?

**The same China faces for seizing Japanese islands. The same Iran faces for building nuclear weapons to use on Israel and the US.**
Title: Network Intel
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 26, 2010, 09:41:20 AM
Venezuela - Chávez announces purchase of Russian missile system



Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced the purchase of the Russian S-300 missile
system on 17 October 2010. Experts speculate Chávez may buy two Antónov 74 planes as
well. Iran previously attempted to buy the same missile system but was rejected in
accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1929.


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on October 26, 2010, 11:14:41 AM
Buying missiles is a great way to fight poverty... in Russia!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 26, 2010, 05:38:37 PM
As well as give the nervous willies to anyone thinking of doing an Osirak on a budding Venezuelan nuke program.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 16, 2010, 09:42:15 AM
Hat tip to BBG, this from the WOD thread

A Gangster With Oil
 
Posted 11/15/2010 06:57 PM ET

Colombian police escort suspected Venezuelan drug lord Walid Makled Garcia in Bogota last August. He says Hugo Chavez protected his drug empire. AP View Enlarged Image

Geopolitics: Years ago, Americans worried about Venezuela's leftist Hugo Chavez becoming a new Castro — with oil. It happened. Now he's filling his cabinet with drug lords, and the threat morphs into something creepier.

Last week, Chavez promoted Major General Henry Rangel Silva to general-in-chief, the top position in the Venezuelan military command.

It was a rogue act because, in 2008, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control named Rangel and two other Chavez loyalists as "Tier II Kingpins" for material support of drug trafficking.

The U.S. designation came of an administrative process so strict and thorough the U.S. government could indict someone if it's right — and be sued if it's wrong. There have been no lawsuits.

Rangel is said to provide material support for Colombia's FARC communist terrorists, who control 60% of Colombia's cocaine production, pushing it into Mexico and other destinations.

With Mexico endangered by local cartels' trade with Venezuela's government-linked suppliers, the link to Mexico's drug war is very real. And it's a national security problem for the U.S. — a big one.

The promotion shows Chavez is surrounding himself with drug lords. Most leaders would expel someone with those credentials. Not Chavez. He almost seems to be flaunting Rangel and others like him. One can only conclude that Venezuela is now a narcostate.

With seven other Chavez loyalists also on the Treasury's list (but not yet announced) the rot is far deeper than the U.S. wants to admit. The only real question left is what will we do about it?

It's important because drug lords have turned Mexico a battlefield. Violence on the U.S.-Mexico frontier began in 2005, the same year Chavez stopped cooperating with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. In 2006, Mexican President Felipe Calderon began his six-year term by declaring war against the drug cartels. So far, it has cost 30,000 lives, and the war's now spilling over our borders.

Two Fridays ago, Mexican marines killed Antonio Cardenas, the chief of the Gulf Cartel, in a shootout that shut the U.S. border with Mexico down. Cardenas' war was fueled by people like Rangel.

Now, there are even people who can prove it. Last August, Colombian forces captured a major Venezuelan drug lord named Walid Makled-Garcia, who'd had a falling out with Chavez.

Makled was so high-ranking the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration last week declared him the "King of Kingpins" after his indictment in New York. Until this summer, Makled commanded Venezuela's air and seaports. His gigantic jetliners loaded with tons of cocaine flew from "the presidential ramp" headed for Mexico.

Makled says he kept records and tapes of his encounters with Rangel, and other top Venezuelan military and intelligence leaders, bribing them to let his drug jets take off. He made $1.4 billion from his work — about the same amount as Chapo Guzman, Mexico's richest cartel chief, whom Forbes magazine estimates is worth $1 billion.

In 2006, Makled's records show, a DC-9 loaded with five and half tons of cocaine crashed in Mexico. It was discovered by Mexican police before it could reach its "buyer" — who happened to be the Sinaloa drug lord Guzman, known for his shootouts in Juarez.

There's also a political aspect emerging in that Mexican war: In recent news item about a child assassins turning up in Mexico, Mexican police report that these gangs are being protected by Chavez's leftist political ally in Mexico, the PRD Party. If PRD continues in this way, it may soon become a leftist drug insurgency, like FARC.

It all pushes the question of what to do about Chavez to a new level of urgency. Right now, Colombia must decide whether to extradite Makled to the U.S. to tell everything he knows about Chavez, or to send him to Venezuela, where he is likely to be killed.

Chavez asked for Makled first, and the murders he's charging him with are graver than the U.S.' cocaine-smuggling charges. Chavez badly needs to silence him to promote his generals.

The Obama administration has its own dilemma — does it want Makled to talk, or does it just want to sweep him and his shocking revelations under the rug as war continues to rage in Mexico?

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/553849/201011151857/A-Gangster-With-Oil.aspx
Title: Venezuela to become base for Iranian missiles?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 09, 2010, 03:31:14 AM


http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezuela#_ftn1
Title: Venezuela: Hugo Chavez 'Critical Condition'
Post by: DougMacG on June 25, 2011, 07:10:35 PM
Too bad about him spouting off about the USA and bragging about Cuban Healthcare.  Other foreign leaders prefer the Mayo Clinic in Rochester Minnesota, but if he likes Havana healthcare, good luck.
------------------
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/06/25/report-hugo-chavez-in-critical-condition-in-cuba/#ixzz1QJt1dSw9
http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/25/967505/en-estado-critico-la-salud-de.html
Report: Hugo Chávez in Critical Condition In Cuban Hospital

By Adrian Carrasquillo  June 25, 2011
AP

Jun 17: Hugo Chávez poses for a photo with Fidel and Raul Castro from his hospital room in Cuba.

Hugo Chávez extended stay in a Cuban hospital is because he is in critical condition, according to a report in El Nuevo Herald.

The Venezuelan president, who was last seen in public June 9 and last heard from on June 12, on a phone call with Venezuelan state television, was said to have been treated for a pelvic abscess in Cuba.

During the call Chávez said that medical tests showed no sign of any "malignant" illness.

But according to the report in El Nuevo Herald, Chávez finds himself in "critical condition, not grave, but critical, in a complicated situation."

The Miami newspaper cited U.S. intelligence officials who wished to remain anonymous.

Chávez silence has led to chatter and speculation in Venezuela that the socialist leader is actually suffering from prostate cancer. Intelligence officials could not confirm a diagnosis of prostate cancer...

Photo Fidel, Hugo Raul:
(http://a57.foxnews.com/latino.foxnews.com/static/managed/img/fn-latino/news/396/223/chavez%20castros%20crop.jpg)
Title: WSJ: To die or not to die?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2011, 10:36:21 AM
As Venezuela's Hugo Chávez convalesces in a Havana hospital, his condition is shrouded in secrecy. The party line is that he had emergency surgery on June 10 for a pelvic abscess. But he has not been seen in public for more than two weeks and speculation is rampant that he is battling something more serious.

His critics ought to be careful what they wish for. While conventional wisdom holds that the demise of Mr. Chávez would set Venezuela free, it may instead make the country more repressive. If there is any justice in the world, he will return to Venezuela to marinate in his own stew—the economic disaster he has created over the past 12 years. A serious illness that takes him out of play would leave Venezuela haunted by the ghost of chavismo much as Peronism has haunted Argentina for the past half-century.

Some Venezuelans think they smell a rat. With living standards steadily declining in their country and popular discontent rising, these skeptics say that Mr. Chávez is looking for a way to revive his image. A triumphant return to Caracas, after he was believed to be near death in Cuba, might do the trick. If his "resurrection" coincides with the July 5 celebration of the nation's bicentennial anniversary, for which a Soviet-style military extravaganza is planned, it would be even more spectacular.
 
For the half or more of the population that opposes the Venezuelan strongman, even the thought of such a comeback is unbearable. They detest his never-ending decrees and manipulation of the law. But what rankles most among those who oppose him are his theatrics, like seizing the airwaves several times a day to sing songs and deliver demagogic rants. A hero's return is likely to heighten this narcissistic behavior. It is also true that he has said he will not leave power even if he loses the election next year.

Still, it is worth considering the alternative outcome. Because Mr. Chávez has destroyed institutions in order to foster a cult of personality, his mortality implies sheer chaos—as well as opportunity for the violent and ambitious. The bloodbath for power would not be between democrats and chavistas. It would be between the many armed factions that he has nurtured. Once victorious the winner will try to inherit his power by insisting that the nation worship his memory. Since none of his likely successors shares his charisma, repression is likely to get worse.

Cuba will be ready to help. The Castro brothers have long provided the security and intelligence apparatus that Mr. Chávez uses to stifle dissent. In exchange, Mr. Chávez funnels at least $5 billion annually to the island regime. The survival of that symbiotic relationship would be a top priority for the Cuban military dictatorship.

That a recovered Mr. Chávez would organize a welcoming committee for himself there is no doubt, and he might even get a bump in the polls from it. But he will also have to take responsibility for a host of Bolivarian-made problems.

For starters, he will have to confront the heavily armed mob that has taken over the El Rodeo prison in the state of Miranda, and the families of nearly 2,000 inmates whose lives are at risk. These are his constituents and he has promised to make the prison system more just. But things have only gotten worse during his presidency.

The Americas in the News
Get the latest information in Spanish from The Wall Street Journal's Americas page.
.The nongovernmental organization, Venezuelan Prison Observatory (OVP), estimates that facilities built for 14,000 inmates now hold more than 49,000. It also says that almost 46% of those detained are in "judicial limbo" and do not know "the status of their case." According to the OVP, there was a 22% increase in prison deaths in the first quarter of this year over the same period last year. Since 1999 over 4,500 inmates have died.

El Rodeo is emblematic of a wider problem for Mr. Chávez: The most vulnerable Venezuelans are still waiting for him to deliver on his promises of a better life. Until now he has bribed them with subsidies and rhetoric. But near 30% inflation is destroying their income and his words are getting old.

The 30,000 families who lost their homes in the floods last fall were supposed to be a priority for his government. But they are still without shelter, and their protests are growing louder. Mr. Chávez has pledged to build 153,000 new homes this year, but in the first quarter only 1,600 were completed.

Add to this food shortages, electricity blackouts, capital flight and one of the worst crime rates in the hemisphere, and it's not surprising that the economic outlook is so bleak. Oil and drug trafficking have kept the military satisfied until now. But the patience of the masses will one day hit its limit. When it does, they ought to have the opportunity to direct their wrath at the architect of their misery.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on June 27, 2011, 11:36:59 AM
Quote
But the patience of the masses will one day hit its limit. When it does, they ought to have the opportunity to direct their wrath at the architect of their misery.

Let's see...

It took the USSR 70 years and a weak government for it to collapse.
Castro is in power after more than 50 years of misery.
The Red Chinese Communist party is still in power after more than half a century
Gaddafi is in power after 43 years and is stalemating NATO

I wonder what the WSJ reporter smokes? It must be THE BEST SUFF. There are some prerequisites for dictators to fall. A weak government like Gorbachev's that does not have a stomach for killing civilians. Weapons in the hands of the oppressed. This can happen if the military turns coat as happened in some Balkan states after Tito. A foreign invasion like Iraq. Absent one or more of the above, the dictator is likely to die of natural causes while still in power.

The rest of the article is pretty good. I believe that if Chavez dies there will be wars of succession on the Chavista side and possibly in the oppo side as well. I have become convinced that the revolution is about the drug trade. Evo Morales is a "former" drug cartel capo. The Colombian FARC is about drug trade. Adan Chavez, Hugo's brother, is the reputed Venezuelan Drug Chief. Whoever gains power gains immense wealth and influence as well. The drug wars in Mexico point out that killing competitors, like the Mafia used to do (or still does) pays huge dividends. That's the motivation on the Chavista side for a war of succession. The Venezuela oppo has been highly fragmented each contender going after a piece of the pie that is not theirs for the taking. Only after multiple electoral failures did the oppo manage to come up with "unity" candidates who did OK. If they now perceive a less charismatic Chavista candidate, a candidate easier to defeat, they are likely to go back to fragmentation and lose again.

BTW, there are plenty Chavistas out there meaning that if the fighting spills to the streets, it could get really ugly.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 28, 2011, 12:43:03 AM
The Perils of Succession in Venezuela

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez called a number of his closest advisers Monday from Cuba, where he is reportedly recovering from emergency surgery. Chavez was visiting Cuba on June 10 when a sudden pain in his abdomen reportedly required his immediate hospitalization and surgery. STRATFOR sources close to the Cuban medical team say Chavez has prostate cancer. Chavez has refused to delegate power even temporarily during his absence, an indication of how little he trusts his closest advisers and allies in the government. Although Chavez seems likely to hold onto power in Caracas despite the current complications, the crisis in the country raises important questions about the future of the Venezuelan state, whose government and power structure have been built around a single, iconic figure.

“It remains plausible that a political transition would allow Venezuela the space to reconsider and potentially realign both its political and economic positions— whether the presidency goes to a Chavez loyalist or a representative of a new faction of power brokers.”
A regional precedent for the current predicament can be found among Chavez’s ideological brethren. Former Cuban President Fidel Castro suffered a medical complication in 2008 and was forced to step down, abdicating power to his slightly younger brother, Raul Castro. Fidel ruled Cuba for nearly 50 years and was the linchpin of the country’s governing strategy. In 2008, Fidel stepped into the background, allowing Raul to pioneer changes to the economy that have begun to bring Cuba closer to finding compromise with its neighbor, the United States.

Castro had the option to step down because he trusts his brother. It is not clear to whom Chavez can turn in the event he finds himself incapacitated. Although his brother Adan Chavez appears to be positioning to take over, Chavez has so thoroughly split power among all possible successors that any would-be ruler will have to fight to maintain control.

Nevertheless, Castro’s example shows us that even the most iconic leader must eventually hand over authority.

We do not know whether Chavez will have to make this choice now. It remains plausible that a political transition would allow Venezuela the space to reconsider and potentially realign both its political and economic positions— whether the presidency goes to a Chavez loyalist or a representative of a new faction of power brokers.

Venezuela must deal with a handful of fixed economic realities. Oil remains at the center of everything, from growth and investment to politics. With all capital concentrated in the oil sector, development without a redistributive model is very difficult. Venezuela’s efforts to develop agricultural self-sufficiency struggle against a mountainous geography and a tropical climate. A high reliance on imports for basic foodstuffs means that inflation will always be a present danger.

Some economic and political characteristics of the Chavez administration could undergo serious changes following a power transition. Since the failed 2002 coup, in which he perceived U.S. involvement, Chavez has been working hard to diversify fuel exports away from the United States and toward partners like China and Europe as a way of reducing his vulnerability to the U.S. market. However, not only is the United States the largest oil consumer in the world, it is also geographically close to Venezuela. Diverting oil exports to other markets — let alone markets on the other side of the planet — costs the Venezuelan oil industry. With oil at over $100 per barrel, there is room to maneuver, but when every dollar gained through oil exports is needed to satisfy populist demands at home, the opportunity costs of walking away from Venezuela’s largest natural market become apparent..

This practice and other economic policies have left the Venezuelan economy in a fragile state. Oil production is declining, the electricity sector is failing, inflation is perennially high, and the government’s debts are climbing higher. This month may not be the moment for change in Venezuela, but Chavez’s sickness highlights the vulnerabilities of a country that relies so heavily on the dictates of a single leader. Ironically, the system of dividing power among competing factions guarantees Chavez’s unchallenged control while he is healthy. However, it makes it exceedingly difficult for him to delegate power to a trusted second in this hour of need.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on June 28, 2011, 08:13:42 AM
It is good to hear from Denny S on the scene even though the message isn't exactly optimism: "It took the USSR 70 years and a weak government for it to collapse."

"I have become convinced that the revolution is about the drug trade."

Interesting take.  It always looks like the theme is Marxism, which really is some form of Stalinism.   Too many people for reasons unknown to me are willingly transferring what power they had over to tyrants to rule them. 

We do it on a different scale here in the U.S., but we are always devising programs and giving away rights in ways that can't be easily undone in the next election.
Title: Venezuela Oil
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 30, 2011, 09:32:13 AM
Vice President of Analysis Peter Zeihan examines the challenges faced by the Venezuelan oil industry regardless of who holds political power in Caracas.


Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.

Oil production is typically an extraordinarily capital intensive industry. It uses a high amount of skilled labor, very specialized infrastructure and the type of facilities that are required are extremely expensive. This is triply so in the case of Venezuela. The Venezuelan oil patch is one of the most difficult in the world: the crude is low-quality, the deposits are complex, and the sort of infrastructure that is required is just lengthy. Very few of the oil fields are very close to the coast, so you also have an additional disconnect between getting the crude to market that requires even more infrastructure. They have to use a lot of steam injections sometimes just to melt the deposits and a lot of the crude comes up such low quality that they actually have to add higher quality crude to it, mixing it, sort of partially refining it before they even put it into the refineries and then take it to the coast.

Even then most of Venezuela’s crude production is of such low quality that only very specific refineries that have been explicitly modified or built to handle the crude can handle it. One of the great misconceptions in the global oil industry is that oil is oil. There is actually considerable variety between the various crude oil grades and most refineries prefer to get their crude from a single source, year after year after year, and typically there are only a couple dozen sources that might be able to meet their specific needs. Oil is not a fungible commodity and Venezuelan crude is one of the more exceptional grades in terms of just being unique. As such, PDVSA [Petroleos de Venezuela], the state oil company of Venezuela, has had to be a very sophisticated firm in order to manage all of these capital, infrastructure, staffing, technological and economic challenges.

The problem that the Chavez government had in the early years is when you have this large of a nucleus of skilled labor — these are intelligent people who are used to thinking through problems, they have opinions, they have political opinions — PDVSA became the hotbed of opposition to Chavez, culminating ultimately in the coup attempt in April 2002. Chavez, regardless of what you think of his politics, had a very simple choice to make: he could leave these people ensconced in their economic fortress of PDVSA, allowing them to plot against them at will, or he could gut the company of its political activists. He chose the latter option and that has solidified his rule but has come at the cost as a slow degradation of PDVSA’s energy capacity. As a result, ten years on, output is probably at a third below where it was at its peak.

With Chavez in Cuba recovering from surgery, the question naturally is, is he on his death bed, is he about to go out, is there about to be a transition to a different sort of government? From an energy point of view this is all way too preliminary because of the nature of the Venezuelan oil company. Let’s assume for a moment that Chavez dies tomorrow and that the next government is even worse than him: horrible managers that don’t understand the energy industry — a lot of the charges that have been brought against the Chavez government. You’d have no real change for the next six months. There is only so much that you can do differently in the oil industry if you want to keep it operational, and whoever the new government is has a vested interest in keeping the money flowing. So the slow, steady degradation of capacity that we’ve seen for the last 10 years? No reason to expect that that would change at all.

On the flip side, let’s assume for the moment that after Chavez’s death we have a new government that is remarkably pro-American and remarkably pro-energy. Again, for the first six months you’d probably not see much change. The capital investment to operate the Venezuelan industry is so huge that you’d probably need tens of billions of dollars applied simply to handle the deferred maintenance issues that have built up over the last ten years. Ultimately you’re going to be looking at years of efforts and tens of billions of dollars of new capital investment if you’re going to reverse the production decline. That’s something that you shouldn’t expect any meaningful progress in anything less than a two-year time frame.

Suffice it to say, Venezuelan oil is going to be a factor of life in global politics and American politics for the foreseeable future. But because of the sheer scope of the problems that face the Venezuelan oil industry, independently of anything that is related to Chavez’s political needs, the market is up against a problem of inertia. It takes years — honestly, a decade — if you want to make a meaningful change in the way that Venezuela works. The oil patch is just that difficult.

Title: Tragic
Post by: G M on July 04, 2011, 04:10:15 AM
http://jammiewearingfool.blogspot.com/2011/07/heartbreaking-best-friend-chomsky-turns.html

When you've lost Chomsky.....
Title: Chavez returns to V.
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 05, 2011, 02:08:09 PM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made a surprise return to Caracas early Monday morning just in time for his country’s bicentennial celebrations on Tuesday. Chavez’s medical condition appears to be quite serious and his extended recovery will continue to fuel speculation over the future stability of the regime.

Chavez appeared in his military fatigues on Monday to deliver a speech from the balcony of the Miraflores Palace. This 30-minute speech — along with the 15-minute speech he gave January 30th from Cuba — were pretty uncharacteristic for the usually loquacious and charismatic president. In both speeches, Chavez appeared a lot thinner, a lot weaker. He was reading from a script in both instances. Overall, he appeared to be in pretty bad medical shape, yet does not appear to be in a life-threatening condition by any means.

Chavez has admitted publicly that he has been treated for a cancerous tumor, but that that recovery will take time. Specifically, Chavez said in his speech Monday that “I should not be here very long, and you all know the reasons why.” That was an indication that this recovery is going to take some more time and that that time could be spent in Cuba.

It was very revealing that Chavez was both capable and sufficiently motivated to make an appearance on July 5th for the bicentennial celebrations. This is a highly symbolic event for the head of state and there was a lot riding on Chavez’s appearance, especially as speculation has run rampant on whether the president’s medical condition would cut his political career short. Chavez, of course, wanted to short-circuit a lot of that speculation and remind his allies and adversaries alike that he very much remains in the political picture.

What’s been most revealing about this whole episode is just how little trust Chavez has placed in his inner circle. By design, Chavez is the main pillar of the regime and he’s done an extremely good job of keeping his friends close and his enemies even closer. Close ideological allies like the president’s brother Adan, or Vice-President Elias Jaua, simply don’t have that support within the regime or outside to sustain themselves independent of Chavez. The same goes for military elites like the head of Venezuela’s strategic operational command, Gen. Henry Rangel Silva.

We expect that Chavez will be making some changes to his Cabinet very soon to manage the internal rifts within this regime. This is something I like to refer to as “rats in the bag management.” If you have a bag of rats and you shake them up enough you can prevent any one rat from gnawing their way out of the bag. When Chavez shakes up his Cabinet this time around, we expect him to keep potential rivals like Gen. Silva extremely close, while boosting more trusted allies like Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro to manage day-to-day affairs.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, we expect that Chavez will be able to manage his regime pretty tightly, even during his medical leave. But given the apparent seriousness of his medical condition, and the potential for relapse in the lead-up to the 2012 presidential election, this also serves as a very good opportunity to identify those regime elites that Chavez has to worry about most in trying to manage the day-to-day affairs of the state most importantly and trying to manage any potential rivals within his inner circle.

Title: Venezuela: Chavez heading to Brazil for Chemo?
Post by: DougMacG on July 15, 2011, 02:08:51 PM
A Venezuela update and a healthcare story in one. One might recall that Cuba has the best doctors - or not.  Actually I think it is the US that highest the highest survival rate of the afflictions we are most likely to get like prostate cancer.  So Hugo is going to Brazil rather that eat his pride.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/americas/2011/07/201171423752327834.html

Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, will travel to Brazil for cancer treatment, a source in the Brazilian government has told Reuters news agency.

The Venezuelan President will come to Brazil's Sirio-Libanes hospital, but no timeline has been set for his arrival, the source said on Thursday.

There was no immediate confirmation from Venezuelan government. Asked if Chavez would go to Brazil for treatment, a high-ranking government official said: "I don't know."

Last week Chavez said he may have to receive chemotherapy.

The Sirio-Libanes hospital is considered one of the best in Latin America and is renowned for its cancer treatment centre.

Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo had cancer treatment there and Brazilian Vice President Jose Alencar was treated there for years before he died earlier this year.

Earlier this month, the Venezuelan leader admitted in a television address that he had a tumour but had undergone a successful operation in Cuba to extract the cancerous cells.

This was his first televised speech to the nation, weeks after he was hospitalised in the Cuban capital, Havana, sparking widespread speculation about his health.

"They confirmed the existence of a tumourous abscess, with the presence of cancerous cells, which required another operation to extract the tumour completely," he had said.

Barely two days after the speech from Cuba, Chavez arrived at Maiquetia airport outside Caracas as the country was preparing to celebrate the 200th anniversary of its independence from Spain.

Addressing his supporters from the balcony of his presidential palace, Chavez vowed to win the battle to regain his health.

He thanked Fidel Castro, the iconic Cuban leader, saying that the veteran leader has been practically his "medical chief" while recovering in Cuba. He said he will "win this battle for life."

Chavez's announcement that he had cancer shocked the country of 29 million people and upended the OPEC nation's politics, which he has dominated for 12 years.

It raised questions about whether Chavez will be able to run for re-election next year.

Last month, Venezuela's government postponed a regional summit, citing President Hugo Chavez's health.

Ever since the 56-year-old leader was rushed into emergency surgery in Cuba on June 10, news about his health has been a matter of great speculation, and even his close aides have little clue about the seriousness of his disease.
Title: Gustavo Coronel: Three Scenarios for Venezuela's Future
Post by: captainccs on July 21, 2011, 05:07:50 AM
Gustavo Coronel is quite knowledgeable about Venezuela having been a government bureaucrat and an employee of government owned enterprises most of his life.

While Gustavo Coronel is one of the "good guys" he still represents socialism in a country that has practically no private enterprise, now even less that when Colonel was in government. The entrepreneurs who wanted to survive under Chavez had to kowtow to him and in effect they cease to be legitimate businessmen becoming part of a government influenced Mafia.

In the best scenario Coronel paints, the new "liberal democratic" government that replaces Chavez quickly loses favor with the population as it is incapable of creating an instant gratification solution not only to the thirteen years of Chavez mismanagement but also to the previous forty years of corruption and populism that led to Chavez in the first place.

The one thing Coronel does not talk about is the emergence of a charismatic leader. Like it or not, if the country is run by faceless bureaucrats and lackluster politicians, chaos is even more likely. Think back to the darkest days of America and Britain. It was forceful leaders who energized the people to supreme effort and to supreme sacrifice. How do you do that with a "give me" culture when you have run out of gifts to give? Since 1958 Venezuelans have been trained not to work for a living but to beg for a living: government handouts everywhere, a.k.a. Socialism - Populism. So far, I have not seen an opposition leader capable of taking charge. The young are lacking in experience and the old -- the old guard ousted by Chavismo -- many of us don't want back in power. Catch-22!

The future looks uncertain, more than usual.

Denny Schlesinger



Gustavo Coronel: Three Scenarios for Venezuela's Future

With President Hugo Chavez already having had two emergency operations for cancer and having had to return to Cuba for chemotherapy, Venezuela expert Gustavo Coronel pontificates on what an ill Chavez means for Venezuela with three possible scenarios for the country's future.

By Gustavo Coronel

For the last five years I have been giving lectures and talks in about 20 cities of the U.S. -- including several think tanks and universities in Washington DC -- and in 10 Latin American countries, about the Venezuelan political and social situation and the impact of the Hugo Chavez regime on hemispheric stability, including U.S. national security. Rather than employing a scenario approach to the political future of the Hugo Chavez regime I have been "predicting" to my audiences that Hugo Chavez will not survive politically beyond his current term, if that much.

My "prediction" has been based on what I see as the significant weakening of Chavez's regime during this period of time, illustrated by the financial chaos experienced by his administration, the increasing collapse of national public services, the lack of food and other essentials in the markets, the intense disarray prevailing in the key state owned companies, PDVSA and CVG, (energy and raw materials sectors), the significant loss of domestic popularity due to reduced direct handouts to the poor, the noticeable internal power struggle within the government's party, the increasing loss of control over his Latin American allies, Correa, Kirchner and Lula/Roussef and the increasingly uncertain Cuban political situation.

Now a new and formidable challenge threatens Chavez: cancer. This health problem, recently detected, certainly could not have been predictable. In the best of cases it would probably render Chavez incapable of conducting the intense political activity he would require to be re-elected.

When all of these ingredients are analyzed, three main political/social scenarios for Venezuela suggest themselves for the short term.

   1.   Chavez either abandons the presidency in the next few months, or is defeated in December 2012, trying to be re-elected;
   2.   A military/revolutionary coup d'etat maintains chavismo, with or without Hugo Chavez, in power;
   3.   Hugo Chavez is "cured" and survives politically in good form, winning the 2012 presidential elections on the strength of his emotional link with much of the people.

Of course, there are many other possible scenarios but they might all be variations on one of the three mentioned above.

In the first scenario (45% probability) the medical condition of Hugo Chavez forces him to abandon his quest for a new term. This probably would mean that the presidential election is brought forward. Or, alternatively, he can run a campaign but would be defeated by the opposition candidate, given his uncertain medical condition and the continued deterioration of the country. A democratic, liberal government would take over and would introduce many policy changes in the country but it would have to face the enormous material and spiritual ruin left by 13 years of Chavez's disastrous regime.

In the second scenario (25% probability), Adan Chavez, the older brother of Hugo Chavez and the military officers connected with drug trafficking and the FARC, stage a successful coup d'etat in order to impose a military-socialist dictatorship in the country. This scenario could materialize in the short term but, most probably, it would not be long lasting due to the backlash generated at home and abroad.

In the third scenario (30% probability), Chavez wins a new term but both his health and the deterioration of the country become progressively worse. In this case his tenure would most probably be short-lived.

Paradoxically, the first scenario, where a democratic government replaces Chavez and he becomes the leader of the opposition would probably be the better one for him in the longer term. The new government would suffer severe loss of popularity due to the harsh economic and social measures they will have to take to put the country back on its feet. Because of this, the people, having a very short memory, would probably vote a relatively "healthy" Chavez back in power in 2017, just as they voted Carlos Andres Perez back into power in the 1990's, trying to recapture the "good old times" when money ran abundantly on the streets of Venezuela, corruption be damned.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=408644&CategoryId=13303
Title: The mystery of the “Narco Avioneta” captured in Western Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 14, 2011, 08:27:22 PM
Earlier I posted (somewhere) that running Venezuela by now had very little to do with politics or ideology. It now revolves around who controls the drug trade. I think this article proves that I was right on target



The mystery of the “Narco Avioneta” captured in Western Venezuela
August 14, 2011


(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/elaissami-narcoavioneta-yv25311.jpg?w=514&h=385)


The bizarro world that Venezuela has become allows for everything, there are no longer surprises, least of all if our military is involved. The same military that has been talking openly about staging a coup, should Venezuelans choose a leader different than Chavez in the 2012 elections.

But the military does not seem to answer to anyone anymore in Chavezlandia. The latest bizarre episode already has a leading hashtag in Twitter: #narcoavioneta. You see, a small plane was captured in Falcon state full of drug, some 1,400 kilograms of cocaine was found in it.

Website lapatilla.com has raised numerous (here, here, here) questions about this case, including the fact that it is supposedly not registered in Venezuela, despite having a registration number painted on it and freely and liberally flying around the country.

Now, I don’t know much about the case and its details, whether it was or not registered, where the drug was loaded onto it, whether the two people killed were involved or not.

What I do know, is that according to all reports, the plane took off from the La Carlota airport.

Now, it used to be, up to 2005, that private planes could fly in and out of the La Carlota military base in Caracas. This was stopped in 2005, unless, of course, you were a revolutionary or related to one, or had a connection to one, as I showed in 2006.

So, how could this supposedly unregistered plane, take off from the La Carlota military base, with or without drugs last Friday? Who allowed it? Who approved it? Who was involved?

Oh, I know, it was someone high up in the military, but like Makled and so many other cases, we will never know. No wonder these guys are so nervous that the Government could change in 2013 via the ballot box, who do you think will be fired first and investigated?

The same ones that protect and benefit from the mysterious “Narco Avioneta”. Bet on that!


http://devilsexcrement.com/2011/08/14/the-mystery-of-the-narco-avioneta-captured-in-western-venezuela/


La noticia en español
Aterrizó avioneta con una tonelada de droga en Falcón y tiroteo dejó 2 muertos y un herido (http://www.panorama.com.ve/13-08-2011/avances/droga.html)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 14, 2011, 09:04:57 PM
Some people are speculating that it is this plane:

Honduras investiga si avioneta está en Belice

La coordinadora de fiscales en San Pedro Sula, Marlene Banegas, dijo hoy viernes que las investigaciones están en curso porque la aeronave encontrada en Belice es muy similar a la robada en Honduras, la única diferencia sería el color

http://www.laprensa.hn/Sucesos/Ediciones/2011/05/20/Noticias/Honduras-investiga-si-avioneta-esta-en-Belice
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 15, 2011, 03:04:37 AM
Thanks for following up on this and keeping us informed Denny. 

With Chavez's apparently serious health issues, the growing military and nuclear connections with Iran, and Baraq at the helm here, it looks like Venezuela is going to be appearing on a lot more people's radar screens here in the next year or two; readers of the DB forum will be a step ahead of the curve once again:  :-)
Title: Analysis - Chavez seeks to contain voter angst over economy
Post by: captainccs on August 15, 2011, 09:00:28 AM
To solve the self-created foreign exchange problem, the Chavez government issues dollar denominated bonds that can be purchased with bolivars by the locals. There is a quota per account or per person that banks manage but their favored clients wind up with the bulk of the dollars. The "parallel" (black market) rate has been around Bs.F 8.50 per dollar. When the latest bond issue was announced, it was priced so that buyers would get an effective exchange rate 5.50 or so, below that black market rate but above the official rate. This paralyzed the black market for a couple of week until the bond buyer got theirs. Now that the bond rate is gone, the black market rate is back to Bs.F 8.50 per dollar.

It is "illegal" to even talk about exchange rates but the black market rates are published on the Internet.

http://www.liberal-venezolano.blogspot.com/



Analysis - Chavez seeks to contain voter angst over economy
By Louise Egan

CARACAS | Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:35pm BST

(Reuters) - Venezuela's economy is plagued by shortages, high inflation and crippling currency controls, but a massive spending spree by President Hugo Chavez will likely keep an incipient recovery alive, at least until a 2012 vote.

Polls show support for the charismatic leftist leader has edged up since he announced in June he had cancer. But unless he can generate as much sympathy for his economic stewardship, his re-election bid could be at risk.

In the short term, Chavez can paper over underlying problems with subsidies, price controls and ramped-up spending on his flagship health and housing programs for the poor.

But eventually, falling oil production by the OPEC nation combined with mounting debt will make it harder to finance his socialist "revolution," analysts say, leading to sub-par growth and possibly another painful currency devaluation.

"We expect Venezuelan growth to lag behind the rest of Latin America over the coming years," said David Rees, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London.

"Of course Chavez, current health concerns aside, will try to pump the economy ahead of next year's presidential election with strong government spending."

Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves, according to OPEC. Yet it was the last in Latin America to pull out of recession, returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The recovery advanced at a healthy clip in the first half of this year and is on track for 4.5 percent annual growth, the U.N.'s regional economic body ECLAC predicts.

High oil prices and public spending are powering the expansion. Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has nationalized large swaths of the economy, scaring off foreign investors and slowing domestic manufacturing, farm and even oil production as companies are reluctant to bet on new projects.

The 57-year-old former soldier's illness has slowed him, but he has made an effort to show he remains in charge, displaying his characteristic flair during regular phone calls to state television programs. He has undergone two chemotherapy sessions in Cuba as Fidel Castro's guest and says he is recovering well.

Oil prices may continue to work in Chavez's favour, rallying since a sharp sell-off last week over the U.S. and European debt crises and fears of another global downturn.

"Even if we see a Lehmann-style sell-off like we saw in 2008 ... as long as oil stays above $70 (42.69 pounds) a barrel, they're in pretty good shape," said Russ Dallen, head of Caracas Capital Markets.

"IT'S BUYING TIME"

Perhaps the biggest wrench in the economy is the mind-boggling set of rules limiting the amount of foreign currency businesses can obtain. The result is a dollar drought that hangs like a curse over a country that imports 90 percent of its needs and where basic items like milk and cooking oil are in short supply.

Annual inflation hit 25.1 percent in July, the highest in the region, but may not constrain growth as long as Chavez' redistribution of oil wealth provides stimulus.

"The main thing that the government needs to do is to maintain adequate levels of aggregate demand, to maintain growth and increase employment. said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Washington-based Centre for Economic Policy Research.

"This it can do through spending on public works projects, including housing," he said.

But the system puts huge strains on the bolivar currency, seen as substantially overvalued at the official rate of 4.3 to the dollar and 5.3 for the central bank's SITME rate.

Still, few believe the government will devalue the currency again anytime soon but rather will seek stop-gap measures to increase the dollar supply. It devalued the bolivar twice last year in an attempt to make local businesses more competitive.

"It's buying time, the postponement of tough policy adjustments until the post-electoral period," said Angel Garcia, analyst at local think-tank Econometrica.

It is all a far cry from the oil boom days of the 1970s when the bolivar was one of Latin America's strongest currencies, letting middle-class Venezuelans enjoy foreign travel and cheap shopping at plush Miami malls.

To soften the blow of price hikes and shortages, the government introduced more price controls last month and said it was boosting local production of goods like cement and food.

Dollar-denominated bonds are one way authorities try to supply dollars to businesses, which buy the notes in bolivars before selling them abroad for hard currency. The $4.2 billion sovereign bond issued in July, however, shut out much of the private sector.

The opposition says these are temporary measures that further distort an already dysfunctional economy and look to the 2012 ballot as their best chance of stopping Chavez and luring back investment.

"If there's a regime change in Venezuela, this country is wide open for investment and the turnaround will be incredible. It will be like a Wild West stampede," said Dallen.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/15/uk-venezuela-economy-idUKTRE77E3BU20110815
Title: WSJ: Venezuelan 3 Card Monte: Where's the money?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 16, 2011, 09:57:37 PM
By JOSé DE CóRDOBA And EZEQUIEL MINAYA
CARACAS—Venezuela plans to transfer billions of dollars in cash reserves from abroad to banks in Russia, China and Brazil and tons of gold from European banks to its central bank vaults, according to documents reviewed Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal.

The planned moves would include transferring $6.3 billion in cash reserves, most of which Venezuela now keeps in banks such as the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and Barclays Bank in London to unnamed Russian, Chinese and Brazilian banks, one document said.

Venezuela also plans to move 211 tons of gold it keeps abroad and values at $11 billion to the vaults of the Venezuelan Central Bank in Caracas where the government keeps its remaining 154 tons of bullion, the document says.

Venezuelan officials were tight-lipped. Representatives of the ministry of finance and the central bank said there was no official comment, and no one was authorized to address the issue.

Lately, senior Venezuelan officials have criticized Venezuela's dependence on the dollar. Last Saturday, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro said the world's financial system, based on the dollar, "had entered into a crisis of uncertainty and we are planning to construct a new international monetary system, and especially in South America, protect ourselves from this situation," he said.

The Bank of England recently received a request from the Venezuelan government about transferring the 99 tons of gold Venezuela holds in the bank back to Venezuela, said a person familiar with the matter. A spokesman from the Bank of England declined to comment whether Venezuela had any gold on deposit at the bank.

A spokesman for the Bank for International Settlements where Venezuela keeps $3.7 billion of its cash reserves, and 11.2 tons of gold, Venezuela values at $544 million, according to the document, also declined to comment.

Analysts said the planned move made little economic or financial sense, since Venezuela would be taking its money out of secure banks in safe countries and putting it in countries that are not as safe and perhaps in currencies such as the Chinese yuan or the Russian ruble, which are not reserve currencies. "It's a big risk," said José Guerra, a former official at Venezuela's central bank. Mr. Guerra said he also had heard about the documents whose authenticity was confirmed to him by Central Bank officials.

Mr. Guerra said one possible reason for the planned moves could be that Venezuela is afraid it could be compelled to pay billions of dollars in compensations to foreign companies that have gone to court to recover damages for companies Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has nationalized. Another reason could be that China may have asked for collateral for billions of dollars it has loaned Venezuela, Mr. Guerra said.

Venezuela faces a sizable bill from arbitration but it's difficult to pin down a reliable estimate.

"It's a wide range from $10 billion to $40 billion and beyond," says Tamara Herrera, chief economist of Síntesis Financiera, an economic consulting firm based in Caracas. "There are many ongoing negotiations; the major ones of course are with oil companies."

One of the documents outlining the moves appears to have been drafted by Jorge Giordani, Venezuela's planning and finance minister, in conjunction with Nelson Merentes, the central bank president, for Mr. Chávez's approval. It calls for the transfer of the cash and gold reserves as of Aug. 8 in a maximum of two months.

Another document prepared by Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro for Mr. Chávez's approval calls for Messrs. Giordani and Merentes to prepare a plan to safeguard Venezuela's international reserves given "the recent U.S. debt crisis and its impact on the dollar as a world reserve currency."

The crisis, the document says, "has lit all the alarm signals as to whether it's convenient to maintain our reserves in that currency."

The document also notes that "the powers of the North" have "pillaged" Libya's international reserves as a result of the sanctions applied to Libya. "That makes us reflect on the need to elaborate a plan to monitor and secure the funds that the Republic maintains in international banks to meet its commitments abroad.

For some analysts, the reference to Libya signaled a possible political motive. The charismatic Mr. Chávez, who has said he will run again for president next year's elections, is being treated with chemotherapy for cancer in Cuba. Neither Mr. Chávez's type of cancer nor Mr. Chávez's prognosis has been made public. Moving the reserves may signal that Mr. Chávez and his associates could be preparing some drastic political moves—such as canceling elections—that could incur international condemnation and perhaps trigger sanctions.

"It doesn't augur well for Venezuela," says Roger Noriega, a former high-ranking state department official during the Bush administration.

Opposition congressman Julio Montoya said he received leaked copies of the proposal to move the funds from concerned officials of the finance ministry.

"We don't know if (Chávez) has signed it," Mr. Montoya said during a press conference Tuesday. The congressman from Zulia state criticized what he called the "secretive" nature of the president's deliberation over the measure.

Mr. Montoya said that the proposal raised the question if Venezuela was being pressured into transferring its reserves because of its growing ties with China and Russia.

To fund the country's large-scale social programs, Mr. Chávez has turned to resource-hungry China for assistance on everything from financing to housing and machinery. Last year, Venezuela received a $20 billion credit line from the China Development Bank for housing, which it is paying back with oil shipments.

While China has been Venezuela's largest creditor in recent years, Russia has been a major arms supplier to the South American nation.

Most recently, Venezuela announced it was finalizing agreements for two additional credit lines of $4 billion each with Russia and China, with a portion of the Russian funds earmarked for the Venezuelan military. Venezuelan officials have also said they have recently reached an agreement with Brazil for a $4 billion line of credit.

Title: Special report: Pension scandal shakes up Venezuelan oil giant
Post by: captainccs on August 17, 2011, 05:54:38 AM
Half a billion dollars embezzled
Venezuela under Chavez has become "a moral cesspool."



Special report: Pension scandal shakes up Venezuelan oil giant
By Marianna Parraga and Daniel Wallis | Reuters – August 8, 2011


CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela received an enviable honor last month: OPEC said it is sitting on the biggest reserves of crude oil in the world -- even more than Saudi Arabia.

But the Venezuelan oil industry is also sitting atop a well of trouble.

The South American nation has struggled to take advantage of its bonanza of expanding reserves. And a scandal over embezzled pension funds at state oil company PDVSA has renewed concerns about corruption and mismanagement.

Retired workers from the oil behemoth have taken to the streets in protest. Their beef: nearly half a billion dollars of pension fund money was lost after it was invested in what turned out to be a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme run by a U.S. financial advisor who was closely linked to President Hugo Chavez's government.

The fraud case centers on Francisco Illarramendi, a Connecticut hedge fund manager with joint U.S.-Venezuelan citizenship who used to work as a U.S.-based advisor to PDVSA and the Finance Ministry.

Several top executives at PDVSA have been axed since the scandal, which one former director of the company said proved Venezuela under Chavez had become "a moral cesspool."

Pensioners are not the only ones still wondering how such a large chunk of the firm's $2.5 billion pension fund was invested with Illarramendi in the first place.

The question cuts to the heart of the challenges facing PDVSA, one of Latin America's big three oil companies alongside Pemex of Mexico and Brazil's Petrobras.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries issued a report last month showing Venezuela surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest holder of crude oil reserves in 2010.

PDVSA is ranked by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly as the world's fourth largest oil company thanks to its reserves, production, refining and sales capacity, and it has been transformed in recent years into the piggy-bank of Chavez's "21st Century Socialism."

The timing of the scandal is not good for Chavez: the charismatic, 57-year-old former coup leader underwent cancer surgery in Cuba in June and is fighting to recover his health to run for re-election next year. He needs every cent possible from PDVSA for the social projects that fuel his popularity.

MULTI-TASKING

The company does a lot more than pump Venezuela's vast oil reserves. Tapped constantly to replenish government coffers, PDVSA funds projects ranging from health and education to arts and Formula One motor racing. From painting homes to funding medical clinics staffed by Cuban doctors, the restoration of a Caracas shopping boulevard and even a victorious team at the Rio carnival, there's little that PDVSA doesn't do.

Jeffrey Davidow, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela who now heads the Institute of the Americas at the University of California, San Diego, points to the occasion when PDVSA senior executives turned down invitations to a regional energy conference at the last minute back in May, saying they were too busy because of PDVSA's leading role in the government's "Gran Mission Vivienda" project. It aims to build two million homes over the next seven years.

"In poorly-managed societies, national oil companies tend to be the most efficient organizations, so the government gives them more work to do, instead of letting them focus on being better oil companies," Davidow told industry executives in the ballroom at a luxurious La Jolla hotel.

That's the kind of criticism that Chavez, who has nationalized most of his country's oil sector since he was elected in 1999, says is rooted in a bankrupt "imperial Yankee" mind-set.

He purged perceived opponents from PDVSA's ranks in response to a crippling strike in 2002-2003 that slashed output, firing thousands of staff and replacing them with loyalists. Since then, the company has endured one controversy after another.

There was the "maleta-gate" affair in 2007, so-called after the Spanish word for suitcase, when a Venezuelan-American businessman was stopped at Buenos Aires airport carrying luggage stuffed with $800,000 in cash that U.S. prosecutors said came from PDVSA and was intended for Cristina Fernandez's presidential campaign in Argentina. Both Fernandez and Chavez denied the charge.

There have also been persistent allegations by industry experts and international energy organizations that Venezuela inflates its production statistics -- which PDVSA denies -- and a string of accidents, including the sinking of a gas exploration rig in the Caribbean last year and a huge fire at a giant oil storage terminal on an island not far away.

In a big blow to its domestic popularity, tens of thousands of tons of meat and milk bought by PDVSA's importer subsidiary, PDVAL, were left festering in shipping containers at the nation's main port last year, exacerbating shortages of staples on shop shelves. Opposition media quickly nicknamed the subsidiary "pudreval" in a play on the Spanish verb "to rot" - "pudrir".

In an apparent damage-limitation exercise after the pension scandal, five members of the PDVSA board were relieved of their duties in May, including the official who ran the pension fund. They were replaced by Chavez loyalists including the country's finance minister and foreign minister.

Gustavo Coronel, a former PDVSA director in the 1970s and later Venezuela's representative to anti-graft watchdog Transparency International, said the fraud had been going on right under the noses of the PDVSA board.

"What this scandal shows is that Venezuela has become a moral cesspool, not only restricted to the public sector but to the private sector as well," he wrote on his blog.

"Money is dancing like a devil in Venezuela, without control, without accountability. Those who are well connected with the regime have thrown the moral compass by the side Venezuelan justice will not move a finger. Fortunately, U.S. justice will."

SHOW ME THE MONEY

U.S. investigators say Illarramendi, the majority owner of the Michael Kenwood Group LLC hedge fund, ran the Ponzi scheme from 2006 until February of this year, using deposits from new investors to repay old ones. He pleaded guilty in March to multiple counts of wire fraud, securities and investment advisor fraud, as well as conspiracy to obstruct justice and defraud the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He could face up to 70 years in prison.

By those outside the circles of power in Venezuela, Illarramendi was seen as one of the "Boli-Bourgeoisie" -- someone who was already wealthy but grew much richer thanks to the "Bolivarian Revolution," named by Chavez after the dashing 19th century South American independence hero Simon Bolivar. In one widely-circulated image, Illarramendi is seen overweight and balding, wearing a dark blue overcoat and clutching a blue briefcase as he left federal court in Bridgeport, Connecticut after pleading guilty.

An ex-Credit Suisse employee and Opus Dei member in his early 40s who lived in the United States for at least the last 10 years but traveled frequently to Venezuela, Illarramendi is on bail with a bond secured on four U.S. properties he owns.

He was close to PDVSA board members and Ministry of Finance officials, but is not thought to have known Chavez personally. The son of a minister in a previous Venezuelan government, Illarramendi did enjoy some perks -- including using a terminal at the capital's Maiquetia International Airport normally reserved for the president and his ministers, according to one source close to his business associates.

His sentencing date has not been set yet, but a receiver's report by the attorney designated to track down the cash is due in September. In June, SEC regulators said they found almost $230 million of the looted money in an offshore fund.

That was just part of the approximately $500 million Illarramendi received, about 90 percent of which was from the PDVSA pension fund, according to the SEC.

PDVSA has assured its former workers they have nothing to worry about, and that the money will be replaced. But what concerns some retirees are allegations the company may have broken its own rules for managing its pension fund, which should have provided for more oversight by pensioners.

A representative of the retirees should attend meetings where the use of the fund is discussed, but no pensioners have been called to attend such a meeting since 2002.

PDVSA's investment in capitalist U.S. markets may seem to be incongruous given the president's anti-West rhetoric, but the scale of such transfers is not known, and the investment options for such funds at home in Venezuela are sharply limited, not least by restrictive currency controls.

Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told Reuters that Illarramendi only had an advisory role with PDVSA, and that it ended six years ago. So quite how he came to be managing such a big chunk of the pension fund is a hotly debated topic. Ramirez said the pension fund had been administered properly, and that the losses were of great concern to the company.

In July, PDVSA boosted pension payments to ex-employees by 800 bolivars a month, or about $188. The government also allocated nearly half the income from a new 2031 bond issue of $4.2 billion to the company's pension fund -- probably to replenish deposits lost in the scandal.

Still, ex-PDVSA worker Luis Villasmil says his monthly stipend barely meets the essentials for him, his wife, a diabetic son and a niece. One morning in April, he rose early and met several dozen other PDVSA retirees to march in protest to the company's local headquarters in Zulia, the decades-old heartland of Venezuela's oil production.

"I never thought we would be in this situation," the 65-year-old told Reuters with a sigh. "I think PDVSA should show solidarity with the retirees and pay their pensions whatever happens because it is responsible. But that's not the heart of the issue, which is to recover the money if possible."

Ramirez, who once proclaimed that PDVSA was "rojo rojito" (red) from top to bottom, says the firm's 90,000 staff have nothing to worry about. "Of course we are going to support the workers," he told Reuters in March. "We will not let them suffer because of this fraud. We have decided to replace it (the lost money) and to make ourselves part of the lawsuit (against Illarramendi)."

ORINOCO FLOW

The latest scandal comes at a time when observers are focused on the future of PDVSA, given Chavez's uncertain health, next year's election and OPEC's announcement on reserves.

The producer group said in July that Venezuela leapfrogged Saudi Arabia last year to become the world's no.1 reserves holder with 296.5 billion barrels, up from 211.2 billion barrels the year before.

"It has been confirmed. We have 20 percent of the world's oil reserves ... we are a regional power, a world power," Chavez said during one typical recent TV appearance, scribbling lines all over a map to show where planned refineries and pipelines to the coast would be built.

The new reserves were mostly booked in the country's enormous Orinoco extra heavy belt, a remote region of dense forests, extraordinary plant life and rivers teeming with crocodiles and piranhas.

And there lies the rub. Not only is the Orinoco crude thick and tar-like, unlike Saudi oil which is predominantly light and sweet, it is also mostly found in rural areas that have little in the way of even basic infrastructure. It costs much more to produce and upgrade into lighter, more valuable crude.

So hopes now rest on a string of ambitious projects that Venezuela says will revitalize a declining oil sector, eventually adding maybe 2 million barrels per day (bpd) or more of new production to the country's current output of about 3 million bpd, while bringing in some $80 billion in investment.

The projects are mostly joint ventures with foreign partners including U.S. major Chevron, Spain's Repsol, Italy's Eni, Russian state giant Rosneft and China's CNPC, as well as a handful of smaller companies from countries such as Japan, Vietnam and Belarus. Even after the nationalizations of the past, investors clearly want a seat at the Orinoco oil table.

In June, Ramirez announced new funding for Orinoco projects this year of $5.5 billion through agreements with Chinese and Italian banks.

The question remains: will PDVSA have the operational capacity required as the lead company in each project, and will it be able to pay its share?

"Processing that extra heavy crude requires a lot of capital and equipment, and the climate is not good for that at the moment," said one regional energy consultant who has worked with PDVSA and asked not to be named.

There may be billions of barrels in the ground, but the pension scandal will only underline the risks going forward for foreign companies with billions of dollars at stake.

(Additional reporting by Emily Stephenson in Washington; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne, Claudia Parsons and Michael Williams)

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-pension-scandal-shakes-venezuelan-oil-giant-121244065.html
Title: Aircraft used in drug trade
Post by: captainccs on August 18, 2011, 08:36:14 AM
November 15, 2010

High Profile Officials Detained in Cocaine Drug Bust/Plane Discovered in Southern Highway (http://ambergristoday.com/content/stories/2010/november/15/high-profile-officials-detained-cocaine-drug-bustplane-discovered-s)


(http://www.ambergristoday.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/page_full/image/drug_plane_cocaine_drug_bust_headline2.jpg)


- Press Release, Belize Police Department, Press Office - On Saturday, November 13, 2010 at about 2:00a.m. Independence Police (ISF) received information of an aircraft suspected to have landed somewhere in Bladden Village. As a result, ISF police proceeded to the area where a white van was seen coming through the area.

With the assistance of Belize Special Assignment Group (B-SAG), the van was intercepted at the San Juan Bus Stop. On board the van were the following persons: Renel Grant, a 33 year old Corporal of Police attached to Traffic Branch in Belize City, as driver; Nelson Middleton, a 39 year old  Corporal of Police  and Driver assigned to the Govenor General who is a resident of Camalote  Village; Lawrence  Humes, a 38 year old Sergeant of Police presently attach to Belmopan Police Station of #2 Grapefruit  Street in Belmopan; Jacinto Roches, a 42 year old Sergeant of Police attached to the Internal Affairs Desk in Belmopan and a resident of #22 Tangerine Street in Belmopan; and Harold Usher a 36 year old Boatman of the Customs Department from Finca Solana in Corozal Town.

All of the van passengers were detained and escorted to the Independence Police Station along with the van. At the station, a thorough search was conducted on the van resulting in the discovery of the following items: Several BDU’s with ADU markings, several wet clothing, 2 car size batteries Atlas brand, muddy jungle boots and tennis, can food, empty sausage cans, a licensed 9mm for Harold Usher. The said van has been processed by Scenes of crimes and Forensic. All items found have been labeled as exhibit.

ASP Alton Alvarez, Officer-in-charge for Independence Police sub formation, along with other police officers left en route to Bladden Village where between miles 56 and 57 they met BDF/B-SAG personnel. At the scene, they secured a white, twin engine, beech craft aircraft 300-FA 137; Black, Red and White in color with number N786B Super King Air 200. The aircraft was processed for finger prints. Also found at the scene was an Atlas brand car battery with 2 pieces of board that had three lights attached on both sides.

Further checks between miles 59 and 60 led to a small white container truck with VIN# JDAMEO8J2RGF75162 that contained twenty three, 17-gallons, plastic containers; three tank with about 500 gallons of aviation fuel and 3 fuel pumps. A total of 12 pine logs were also found in the area.

Searches by the police in the Hicatee Area about 5-10 yards inside some bushes led to the discovery of a GPS Garmin brand, a Iridium Satellite phone, four Hand Held radios, two RAYOVAC Flashlights, a Colt .223 semi-automatic rifle with Sr. No. 007865, a magazine containing five .56 rounds and 2 pairs of camouflage jackets. At around 5:00pm, as a result of further searches in the area conducted by Police, on a road at mile 65 near the Genus Saw Mill at about ¼ mile in led to the discovery of 80 Bails of suspected COCAINE and 17 loose packs of suspected Cocaine. The drugs have since been secured by a police and are being processed by Forensic personnel. (www.police.gov.bz) (pictures by Patrick E. Jones/ PGTV)

http://ambergristoday.com/content/stories/2010/november/15/high-profile-officials-detained-cocaine-drug-bustplane-discovered-s]

----------------------------------------------------

The above aircraft was "cloned" for the Venezuelan deal:


Venezuela’s Drug Plane; is it the same one from the Southern Highway?

On Saturday, media reports in South America linked a major drug bust in Venezuela to Belize. According to the newspaper, La Patilla, a Super King Air was busted with millions of dollars worth of cocaine. Several law enforcement officers were implicated in the bust and two of them were shot during the incident. But that is not where the only coincidence lies with the last year’s largest narco-trafficking bust in the Jewel. The newspaper was claiming that the plane, when its registration was checked on airframes.org, linked to Belize. It claimed that the drug plane was the same one that landed on the Southern Highway in Belize on November tenth, 2010. The website furnished pictures of the Belize incident and also alleged the plane was sold to a company in Florida and consequently resold to owners in Venezuela. But News Five spoke to Belize Defense Force Chief of Staff who refutes the allegation.

Lieutenant Colonel David Jones, B.D.F. Chief of Staff David Jones

“What I can tell you from the time that aircraft was in the drug bust on the Southern Highway. From the time that aircraft was flown into the Philip Goldson and then subsequently held by the Belize Defence Force, we still have that aircraft. That aircraft is currently at our B.D.F. air wing. And it is going to remain there until we get further direction from our government. As far as to the reports, I don’t know where they got their information, but we still have that aircraft—it hasn’t move sicne and it’s not going to move now.”

Jose Sanchez

“What they did was that they linked it through information received from different websites that track VIN numbers and they were saying that the aircraft was exported from Belize to the U.S. and back to Venezuela. So it is not the same aircraft?”

Lieutenant Colonel David Jones

“It must be a different aircraft because we still have the aircraft we captured on the highway. We still have it in custody and it is going to remain there.”

Jose Sanchez

“The minister of police says that the aircraft will in the future belong to the B.D.F. for future use. Will it be part of your air wing?”

Lieutenant Colonel David Jones

“That has been in discussion that possibly it will go to the Belize Defence Force. If it does go to us, then it will be part of our air wing. But that hasn’t been finalized as yet with the government so we are not sure of that yet. But that is the plan if it does happen and of course the B.D.F. would love to have it at the air wing.”

http://edition.channel5belize.com/archives/59582
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2011, 04:12:01 AM


Venezuela - Chávez meets with Russian Minister; produces action plan for bilateral cooperation

On 24 August 2011 Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergery Lavrov to produce a Plan of Action outlining the two nations’ bilateral cooperation efforts through 2014. Discussions centered on a US$4 billion loan to equip the National Armed Forces and improve Venezuelan defense capabilities, including a modern air-defense system based on Russian technology. Also discussed was the expansion of the joint Venezuelan-Russian bank to finance bilateral socioeconomic development projects with allies as a counterpart to the World Bank.

MARC:  Perhaps this sheds some light on recent moves by Chavez to move Venezuelan reserves , , ,  Note a word from our State Dept or the White House about Russian military sales in the western hemisphere , , , perhaps the fact that we no rely upon Russia to get the majority of our supplies to our troops in Afghanistan has something to do with this?

Venezuela – Iran; Venezuela begin construction of petrochemical complex in Iran

On 21 August 2011, The Managing Director of the National Iranian Petrochemical Organization Abdolhossein Bayat stated that Iran and Venezuela began construction of a petrochemical complex in Bushehr, Iran, pursuant to an agreement signed in October 2010. The agreement stipulates that Venezuelan oil company PDVSA will be able to participate in the Iranian South Pars natural gas field. The two countries are discussing a similar construction project in Venezuela
Title: Medical Evaluation of Hugo Chavez
Post by: captainccs on August 31, 2011, 06:05:02 PM
Medical Evaluation of Hugo Chavez:

What follows are comments about the health of Hugo Chavez. I don't know the qualifications of the writers but the picture they paint sounds plausibe. To look at the pictures, please visit The Devil's Excrement (http://devilsexcrement.com/2011/08/30/hugo-chavez-physical-evolution-part-ii-july-17th-to-august-28th/)



JMA commented on Hugo Chavez' Physical Evolution part II, July 17th. to August 28th.

Miguel:

It is difficult to ascertain what is going on with the gorilla, because he gives too much contradictory information about his health. I even doubt that he had surgery. If he is really ill, he may be experiencing Hodgkin’s Lymphoma or an early stage of Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. If chemotherapy is needed to treat these tumors, the regimen would include a steroid, which can cause cataracts, e.g.: decreased visual acuity. But, the other drugs in the regime can also cause ocular toxicity. Finally, if he used to wear contact lenses, then he had to stop using them to prevent an infection.

With the info that he has provided, it is very unlikely (if it is true that he has cancer) that he is experiencing any other type of malignancy. Based on what he has said and the treatment he is receiving, the only possible conclusion is that he has an advanced stage cancer.

Having said that, colon or rectal cancer seem pretty off the table. First, the surgery is really hard on the patient. If he had an abscess as he said or a rectal cancer, it would have most certainly required a colostomy. Let me tell you. When this happens to you, your life changes radically. I have seen it first hand in a most beloved family member. You LOSE weight, and I mean lots of it. The cancer’s chemical mediators, its feeding on the patient, and the anorexic effects of chemotherapy make sure that happens. Plus, if the Cubans extracted a tumor the size of a baseball, like he said, well, that is stage IV colon cancer, with metastases to peritoneum (only God can save you from that) and liver, for starters.

Renal cancer does not get treated with chemo. You take the mass out, and then give radiotherapy. They respond very nicely to it.

Bladder CA does not get steroids. Ever. So, you don’t get bloated like a pig.

Prostate CA: there is some blatant ignorant mumbling some words about it in an above comment. Suffice it to say that if you get into a stage in which you need chemo, you are basically dead. The pain from the bone metastases is unbearable almost all the time, and your bone marrow gets infiltrated so you have all kinds of blood disorders (like having leukemia). Pathologic fractures are less likely since these patients are bedridden. So, again, for the ignorant above, no, prostate CA does not produce osteoporosis, it’s osteomalacia with its attendant pathologic fractures if any, and, no, your height is not reduced, because as I said these patients stay in bed because of pain, avoid fractures of the vertebral spine, and thus its height is preserved. I have yet to meet a stage IV prostate cancer patient walking. That would indeed be a miracle.

So, for the reasons above, I will say that if the gorilla has anything it would be a Lymphoma. If it is Hodgkin’s disease, it is very treatable and he is likely to survive. If it is a NHL, his chances are not good, but still he may survive.

Finally, regarding his freaking eyes, a decreased visual acuity could be the result of malignancy, chemotherapy, or radiotherapy.

However, don’t ever underestimate the lengths to which a malignant narcissistic-psychopath would go to reach his goals. I know you don’t have to be versed on this, but let me tell you it is hair-raising knowledge. The books of Dr. Robert Hare come to mind. Read them, and your perception of life in this planet changes completely.

A very good night to all of you guys!

---------------------------------------------------

Roberto N commented on Hugo Chavez' Physical Evolution part II, July 17th. to August 28th.

For what it’s worth, I translated JMA’s comment by Franzel Delgado Senior into English because it was so interesting. Any mistakes in translation are mine.

Franzel Delgado Senior reaffirms that universal statistics demonstrate that the majority of sociopathic personalities, in which president Chavez is classified, come to a tragic end. The psychiatrist believes the president is biologically and irrevocably designed for conflict. “To pretend he will change is to wait for his eyes to change from brown to blue”

“I have no interest in disqualifying anyone. I simply believe that, without the contribution of psychiatry, it will not be possible to understand the complex scenario in which Venezuela has entered.”

The thesis of assasination is recurrent in president Chavez. Is there a psychological explanation for the fact that the president constantly refers to this in his discourse?

The president has, as does every human being, a personality configuration. This process that feeds the construction of the personality ends, on average, at age 21 in all people. After age 21, it is not modifiable. When the personality loads are well distributed, we can speak of a normal personality. But when this process of structuring happens inadequately and ends with unbalanced loads (many loads of one sort and few of others), then the personality configures itself pathologically. And this pathologic configuration is for life.

Is there a pathologic configuration in the case of the Head of State?

There are very clear characteristics that allow, without great difficulty, to pose a personality structure of a sociopathic and narcissistic type. Sociopathic personality disorders are defined in the universal classifications of psychiatry. These are people that are biologically designed to violate norms; they do not exercise loyalty; they do not act with truth; they have affective lives that are very unstable; there is no sensibility in their structures; there are no regrets; they always have to live in conflict; they cannot live in peace with others and are very manipulative.

And the narcissistic personality?

In the case of narcissism, the perception that the person has of him/herself is not real; it is exaggerated; it has the conviction of being unique; he or she is above the rest. Any bad action is possible to satisfy these narcissistic necessities of the personality. Because narcissists believe they are pre-destined for special situations, it is perfectly understandable that they could hold the fear that there are people interested in eliminating them. The fear of the President of that magnicide is absolutely justified. If we examine universal statistics, we find that a very significant proportion of people with sociopathic disorders end up dead. Because they are aggressive, conflictive, violate the rights of others and at some point in their life, someone gets even.

Can you classify the President’s personality even though he has not been your patient?

I cannot diagnose as a physician, because he has never been my patient, but we psychiatrists can aver that the observable behaviors of the President correspond to those types of personality disorders that I mention. Aside form those characteristics, I believe that Chavez is a person with a very basic intellect; a man with little culture; to go to bed Catholic and wake up Evangelical 8 hours later is a great example of this.

But intelligent

He could be intelligent. What happens is that sometimes a person’s intelligence fools you. For too long, international classifications showed that one of the characteristics of sociopathic personalities was intelligence. But, over time, this criterion was revised, because it began to be apparent that it wasn’t so much intelligence, but the ability to manipulate the others that made them appear to be intelligent. To believe that the President will change is to pretend that his brown eyes become blue.

But couldn’t he change even by some feat of genetic engineering?

You cannot act on personality. We cannot expect peace while Chavez is the president of Venezuela. It’s not that Chavez doesn’t want to be different, it’s that he can’t be different. He is designed biologically to do what he does. Not even if he wanted to could he be any different. While we fail to understand this, we will fail to understand why we are declaring war on the US, or why we are buying one hundred thousand rifles form Russia or why he destabilizes life and peace in Latinamerica.

The idea of magnicide is also mentioned recurrently by Fidel Castro, who keeps count the number of times the US has tried to assassinate him.

Chavez and Castro, although intellectually different (the first is the warrior, the second the oracle), must have similar personalities. To be a dictator for over 40 years, Castro must have, without doubt, a sociopathic structure. If there is no sociopathic structure, you cannot be a dictator because to be a dictator is to violate the rights of others, the disrespect of limits; conflictivity; cruelty. And that, a healthy personality cannot gloss over. No person that does not have a narcissistic component, that does not believe they are superior to others, can be dictator. Because, precisely, the dictator looks for power, for submission, to subjugate eternally.

---------------------------------------------------

JMA commented on Hugo Chavez' Physical Evolution part II, July 17th. to August 28th.

And, that is the point my dear friend: don’t ever underestimate what this guy would be capable to do. He would burn the whole country if he thought that was what was needed. But, don’t just take it from me, because I am not a psychiatrist. Here I will present you with some pearls from Dr. Franzel Delgado Senior, one of the best psychiatrists in Venezuela (My apologies for our non-Spanish speaking friends):

Franzel Delgado Sénior recuerda que las estadísticas universales demuestran que la mayoría de las personalidades sociopáticas, en cuya clasificación incluye al presidente Chávez, tienen un final trágico. El psiquiatra cree que el mandatario está biológica e irrevocablemente diseñado para el conflicto. “Pretender que cambie es como esperar que sus ojos pasen de marrones a azules”

‘Yo no tengo ningún interés en descalificar a nadie. Simplemente creo que, sin el aporte de la psiquiatría, no va a ser posible comprender el escenario tan complejo en el que ha entrado Venezuela.

La tesis del magnicidio es recurrente en el presidente Chávez. ¿Tiene alguna explicación psicológica el hecho de que el mandatario apele a esta constante en su discurso?

El Presidente tiene, como todo ser humano, una configuración de la personalidad. Ese proceso que nutre la construcción de la personalidad cierra, en promedio, a los 21 años en todas las personas. Y, después de los 21 años, no es modificable. Cuando las cargas de la personalidad están bien repartidas, podemos hablar de una personalidad normal. Pero cuando ese proceso de estructuración se produce de manera inadecuada y cierra con cargas desproporcionadas (muchas cargas de un tipo y pocas de otra), entonces la personalidad se configura patológicamente. Y esa configuración patológica es vitalicia.

¿Hay alguna configuración patológica en el caso del jefe de Estado?

Existen características muy claras que permiten, sin mayor dificultad, plantearse una estructura de personalidad de tipo sociopática y narcisista. Los trastornos de personalidad sociopáticos están definidos en las clasificaciones universales de la psiquiatría. Se trata de personas que están diseñadas biológicamente para violar las normas; no ejercen la lealtad; no actúan con la verdad; tienen vidas afectivas sumamente inestables; en su estructura no hay sensibilidad; no hay arrepentimientos; tienen que vivir permanentemente en el conflicto; no saben vivir en paz con los demás; y son muy manipuladoras.

¿Y la personalidad narcisista?

En el caso del narcisismo, la percepción que la persona tiene de sí misma está fuera de la realidad; es exagerada; tiene la convicción de ser única; se siente por encima de los demás. Cualquier mala acción es posible para satisfacer esas necesidades narcisistas de la personalidad. Como los narcisistas se creen predestinados para una situación muy especial, perfectamente es factible que puedan abrigar el temor de que hay gente interesada en eliminarlos. El temor del Presidente ante un magnicidio es absolutamente justificable. Si revisamos las estadísticas universales, encontramos que una proporción muy significativa de personas con trastornos sociopáticos termina muerta. Porque son agresivas, son conflictivas, violan los derechos de los demás, y, en algún momento de su vida, alguien les cobra.

¿Usted puede clasificar la personalidad del Presidente sin que él haya sido su paciente?

Yo no hago un diagnóstico como médico, porque él nunca ha sido mi paciente, pero los psiquiátras podemos precisar que las conductas observables del presidente de la república se corresponden con este tipo de trastornos de la personalidad que menciono. Aparte de estas características, creo que Chávez es una persona con un grado intelectual muy básico; un hombre con muy poca cultura; acostarse católico y despertarse a las 8 horas evangélico, es una muestra fehaciente de ello.

Pero inteligente.

Podría ser inteligente. Lo que pasa es que a veces la inteligencia de una persona engaña. Durante mucho tiempo, las clasificaciones internacionales señalaban que una de las características de las personalidades sociopáticas era la inteligencia. Pero, con el tiempo, ese criterio se revisó, porque se comenzó a percibir que no era tanto la inteligencia, sino la habilidad para manipular a los demás lo que los hacía aparecer como inteligentes. Esperar que el Presidente cambie es pretender que sus ojos marrones pasen a ser azules. No es posible.

¿Pero no podría cambiar ni siquiera apelando a un trabajo de ingeniería genética?

Sobre la personalidad no se puede actuar. Aquí no podemos esperar paz mientras el presidente de la República sea Chávez. Porque Chávez no es que no quiera ser distinto, es que no puede ser distinto. Biológicamente está diseñado para hacer lo que está haciendo. Y ni que él se lo propusiera pudiese ser distinto. Mientras no entendamos eso, no vamos a comprender por qué le estamos declarando la guerra a los Estados Unidos, o por qué un gobierno que habla de paz anda comprando cien mil fusiles a Rusia o porqué desajusta la vida y la paz en Latinoamérica.

La idea del magnicidio también la asoma recurrentemente Fidel Castro, quien ha inventariado la cantidad de veces que Estados Unidos habría intentado asesinarlo.

Chávez y Castro, aunque intelectualmente son diferentes (el primero es el guerrero y el segundo el oráculo), deben tener personalidades muy parecidas. Para ser un dictador durante más de cuarenta años, Castro debe tener, sin duda, una estructura sociopática. Si no hay una estructura sociopática, no se puede ejercer la dictadura, porque la dictadura es violación de los derechos de los demás; el irrespeto de los límites; conflictividad; es crueldad. Y eso una personalidad sana no lo puede cohonestar. Ninguna persona que no tenga un componente narcisista, creerse superior a los demás, puede ser dictador. Porque precisamente el dictador lo que busca es poder; sumisión; subyugar eternamente.

I hope this helps understand how his mind works, and what is he capable of.
Title: Stratfor: Venezuela's search for economic security
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2011, 07:51:53 AM
The Venezuelan government has announced four key policy moves designed to enhance the country’s economic security. The first is the transfer of $6.3 billion in currency reserves to banks in Russia, China and Brazil. In the second move, Venezuela announced that it would transfer $11 billion worth of gold, mostly held abroad in Swiss banks, back home to the Venezuelan Central Bank. Third, was the nationalization of Venezuela’s gold sector, and fourth, was the creation of joint ventures between Venezuelan state firm PDVSA [Petroleos de Venezuela] and state mining firms.

The Venezuelan Central Bank lists its currency reserves at $6.5 billion and its gold reserves at $18 billion. A whopping 60 percent of Venezuela’s reserves are thus distributed in gold, while the rest are distributed in bonds and cash. Many in the investor world have written off these moves as irrational moves by Chavez’s economic team that will only enhance investors’ skittishness in Venezuela. In our view, the moves make good political sense for the Chavez regime but are also extremely revealing of the government’s growing vulnerabilities.

We pointed out at the beginning of the year that the rising level of economic decay, runaway corruption and growing political uncertainty in Venezuela would make the Venezuelan regime more reliant on its allies, particularly China and Russia. But both Russia and China have become increasingly skittish over the rising level of political uncertainty in Venezuela. Both of these countries have deep insight into the state of PDVSA’s financial disarray, and they both can see very clearly that there is no clear successor to Chavez who would be able to manage the regime as tightly as he has. For that reason, every time Venezuelan delegations go to Beijing and Moscow asking for larger installments on these loans, the Chinese and the Russians are coming back asking for greater collateral. And this likely explains Venezuela’s decision to transfer its currency reserves to Russian and Chinese banks. This allows Venezuela to draw larger amounts from these loans, but it also gives Russia and China the option, theoretically, to block Venezuelan reserves down the line should they feel the need to insulate themselves against a potential Venezuelan default.

Now, Chavez has had a lot of reasons for trying to insulate his country’s reserves. More recently, Chavez has likely been unnerved by the West’s freezing of assets of his close friend and ally, Moammar Gadhafi. There is also a very active sanctions lobby in Washington D.C. that has been spending a lot of time highlighting the links between PDVSA and IRGC-linked companies in Iran that is putting Venezuela on the sanctions radar. Another likely reason behind this move has to do with pending arbitration disputes on Venezuela’s nationalization decrees. Venezuela has a number of lawsuits now exceeding up to $30 billion with Conoco Phillips, Exxon Mobil, among other major firms.

Now, the Venezuelan move to transfer the majority of its gold assets back home and nationalize the gold sector likely have a lot to do with PDVSA’s increasing cash flow problems. In trying to address this problem of improving PDVSA’s efficiency as well as the efficiency of key mining companies, the Venezuelan government has announced a policy to create joint ventures between PDVSA and mining firms in the country. Theoretically, this type of consolidation could lead to greater efficiency, but if you look at the history of PDVSA’s nationalizations, the company’s expanded portfolio has led to greater inefficiency and not less.

Given the rising political uncertainties of the day especially given that Chavez is his sick with cancer, the Chavez government cannot afford to see its social development projects held back by PDVSA’s cash flow problems. Those projects are crucial to the regime’s political support and with elections slated for 2012 and the potential for those elections to be moved up sooner depending on Chavez’s health, you can see why the government is so eager to have reserves at home, and that is the gold assets back home, so it can draw on its reserves more easily and thus have the cash flow to support these politically crucial development projects. And the Chavez government made the nationalization move at a time when gold prices are at an all-time high. Nationalizing the gold industry allows Venezuela to add more gold to its existing reserves while reducing its exposure to the dollar while relying on local resources. In other words, Venezuela can sell oil abroad in dollars and then transfer its currency reserves to gold, which will now be much more accessible at home. Venezuela can then issue bonds at much lower rates, offering its gold as collateral, thus getting the cash it needs to support these politically crucial social development programs.

Title: Hugo Chavez is very sick
Post by: captainccs on September 25, 2011, 04:48:00 PM
Rumor has it that Hugo Chavez is terminally ill with cancer. The rumors are based on published photographs which are then interpreted by people who pose as medical doctors or otherwise experts on the subject. On the web it's hard to know who is who so it has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The linked blog entry has a recent picture of Chavez with Raul Castro. The blogger, Gustavo Coronel, is a well know and trusted fellow (he's not the one diagnosing Hugo's condition). Chavez certainly looks sick:

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ypcYzvLRcSY/Tn9zB2RrPGI/AAAAAAAAFDc/ozqK_mpnB1Q/s320/x2_872dda8.jpg)

http://lasarmasdecoronel.blogspot.com/2011/09/hit-parade-de-la-cursileria.html


Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Hugo Chavez terminally ill
Post by: captainccs on September 25, 2011, 04:54:54 PM
Here is a comment by "JMA" who is supposed to be a medical doctor. His web posts sound credible but I don't know the guy from Adam:

Quote
JMA commented...

Up to some point in time, the changes that he underwent were perhaps not sufficient to really believe that he was very sick. But, Jesus! he now looks almost terminally ill.

The fact that worries me is that from this point on anything can happen to him. He could die suddenly from a myriad of acute complications that would be too long to post here, or from a longer protracted course lasting no more than several weeks or a few months. After seeing that photo, I have trouble believing that come December he will still be alive. If my above speculation proves correct, then the origin of his cancer does not matter anymore. I’ll bet his doctors would be now trying to avoid or treat the wide variety of complications caused by metastatic disease.

In light of these considerations, it may very well be possible that shortly the country is plunged into a severe crisis.



Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Chavez is terminally ill
Post by: captainccs on September 27, 2011, 05:10:45 AM
All the secrecy is falling away. The guy is not long for this world. I wonder what preparations the opposition has made. They better be prepared to battle the Chavistas. When Carmona and other oppo leaders arrived in Miraflores -- our White House -- in April 2002, they were CLUELESS. They acted so poorly that the military brought back Chavez. This time, when the opportunity comes, I hope they are better prepared to take the day. A military-drug-cartel dictatorship by brother Adan Chavez would be as bad as North Korea and even worse than Cuba.

From the same thread as above:

Quote
It’s a bit late in this thread, but nobody commented on this:

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/07/13/cancer-stricken-chavez-attends-mass-to-pray-for-recovery/ (http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/07/13/cancer-stricken-chavez-attends-mass-to-pray-for-recovery/)

I believe it’s quite relevant since during this ceremony (mass actually), HCh received last rites from Monsignor Mario Moronta, while not exactly the ones for somebody that will die in the next 15 minutes (there are several within this sacrament), but last rites nevertheless, the type usually given to very sick people. So the NY official and pompous church prayer service was actually not the first one.

Now, Deanna commented towards the beginning of this thread “that some Venezuelan prelates (example Msgr. Mario Moronta)” support Chaves. I have information from a 100% reliable source that Mario Moronta does NOT support HCh, or in other words MM is not a Chavista. He also wrote an essay “Jesus was no socialist…), see: http://tinyurl.com/4yavx49 (http://tinyurl.com/4yavx49).

They have known each other from before HCh was president and now Monsignor Moronta supports him in the function of a PRIEST which is his duty. And Chavez for some reason trusts him.

As a result of the absolution that goes with the application of this last rites or “Anointing of the Sick” sacrament, it was conditioned to him freeing some of the ill political prisoners, which he reluctantly did.


Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela post Chavez
Post by: DougMacG on September 27, 2011, 08:01:41 AM
I would much rather see Hugo Chavez leave power defeated in elections by the Venezuelan people than to die prematurely as a pretend national hero, but I can't say I will be actively  praying for his health or recovery.   In one of the elections he stole IIRC the polls showed him losing 40-60 and his election apparatus put him winning 60-40.  Where I live the margin and theft for Obama's 60th senate vote, Al Franken, was just a few hundred votes.  Different facts, same lesson IMO, the margin of victory or loss matters.

Wishing you a peaceful and successful transition to more freedom, less government and better government than these last dozen years.  What happens in Venezuela matters throughout the hemisphere and the world.
Title: Chavez rushed to hospital due to emergency kidney failure
Post by: captainccs on September 29, 2011, 05:26:19 AM
Chavez rushed to hospital due to emergency kidney failure:

http://st26.net/fcbmyh (http://st26.net/fcbmyh)

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on September 29, 2011, 01:28:03 PM
A rough translation from the espanol thread:

It is unfortunate that the popularity of this thread is due to the wickedness of our leaders, especially that of Hugo Chavez.

The story these last 12 years could have been how the Venezuelan voters rejected Chavez and moved instead boldly in the direction of individual liberty and private enterprise and transformed a nation of oil wealth, high literacy rates and strategic location into one of the freest and fastest growing economies on the planet.  Can't change history but how about from here forward...
Title: Eva Golinger, Chavez dis-information mouthpiece, in NYC
Post by: captainccs on October 08, 2011, 05:42:31 PM
Is Chavez medding with the Empire?


Are foreign state employees agitating in New York?

To the embarrassment of the Left, it appears that protesters are being paid to protest on Wall Street. The presence of Eva Golinger is particularly notable.

Written by The Commentator on 7 October 2011 at 8am

Over the past several days, anarchists, anti-capitalists, environmentalists, communists, and probably several other varieties of left-wing crackpots have converged in small numbers on New York to protest against Wall Street.  

In the United States, these types of protests are common; to an extent, they’re welcome manifestations of democracy. To be sure, not everybody agrees with the messages portrayed on the streets of Manhattan today, but there is general consensus that it is the people’s right to protest peacefully.

But to the embarrassment of the left-wing Twitterati, details have emerged of cash passing hands from labour unions to protesters. That’s right; a protest supposedly organised against the capitalist system is being run on supply and demand.

But it’s not only trade unions funding pinko activists to kick up a stink.

The presence of Eva Golinger should also be noted. Ms. Golinger has said the aim of her group, the Venezuela FOI Info, is 'to save Chavez'. For this amongst other actions she has been referred to as a key Chavez propagandist.  According to Golinger’s own twitter feed, she has been actively participating in the operation #OccupyWallStreet (that's Twitter-talk for those unfamiliar) while feeding inaccuracies and untruths back to Venezuelan media – mainly through VTV, Venezuela’s state owned channel.  

As an editor of Correo del Orinoco, a Venezuelan state run newspaper, she is an employee of President Chavez. 

The irony, however, is not lost on the careful observer. In Venezuela, Ms. Golinger has made a name for herself by leading a virulent, if relatively unsuccessful attack against Venezuelan civil society organizations.  

She is on Venezuelan government TV several times a week naming Venezuelan citizens who have dared to advocate for human rights or democracy in their country. Her main scapegoats, it would seem, are the National Endowment for Democracy and the United States Agency for International Development; two U.S. government organisations that provide support to civil society in monitoring Venezuela’s democratic collapse; a collapse in which Ms. Golinger is, of course, actively involved. 

Ms. Golinger’s presence in New York is not illegal – although as an employee of the Government of Venezuela, technicalities could emerge regarding the Foreign Agent Registration Act. 

Be that as it may, for Ms. Golinger the inconsistencies are risible. Condemning civil society organizations who receive international cooperation in Venezuela – something that is a mainstream, accepted, common practice for NGO’s everywhere – while serving as an employee of the Government of Venezuela and participating in anti-government protests in New York serves to expose the double standard inherent in Caracas.

Thankfully, the world seems to be losing patience with the antics of Chavez and his “revolutionary” employees. And new revelations that Venezuela is, in fact, a narco-state serve to wrest what little legitimacy remained from the Venezuelan government.  

Add this to the fact that President Chavez appears to be critically ill, and a power struggle has erupted among his inner circle over succession and it would appear that Ms. Golinger should enjoy her last few moments in the sun.  

She may very well find herself shortly unemployed; looking to the US government, who she condemns at every turn, for a welfare check.   

You can follow The Commentator on Twitter at  @CommentatorIntl (http://twitter.com/#!/CommentatorIntl)

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/510/are_foreign_state_employees_agitating_in_new_york_ (http://www.thecommentator.com/article/510/are_foreign_state_employees_agitating_in_new_york_)

Title: Venezuela Missile Crisis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 24, 2012, 05:47:38 AM
The tone here tends towards hypervenitlating, but the question presented is important.

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/01/24/the-venezuelan-missile-crisis/
Title: Stratfor: Chavez dying?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 23, 2012, 07:53:15 AM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez met with key administration officials Wednesday to discuss how to run his re-election campaign and manage the country during his recovery from an upcoming surgery. In a public appearance Tuesday and then in a telephone interview with Venezuelan state TV channel VTV, Chavez confirmed that he has a 2-centimeter (approximately 0.8-inch) tumor that will have to be surgically removed no later than this coming weekend. Chavez will undergo the surgery in Havana, Cuba, with the same medical team that removed a cancerous tumor from his body in June.

This confirmation follows months of rumors and leaked reports about Chavez's worsening health. In this week's announcements, Chavez was careful to omit all but the barest details of his illness and of his plan to be absent from politics for several weeks. However, what he did say appears to confirm a January report by Spanish newspaper ABC that claimed a tumor had reappeared in Chavez's abdomen. According to the report, Chavez refused medical recommendations to seek treatment in the wake of his diagnosis. Without the treatment, his doctors had reduced his life expectancy to 9-12 months.

In the short term, the announcement raises questions about the stability of the Chavez regime. Chavez is an integral player in the vast majority of political and technocratic decisions in Venezuela. He also has no clear successor. Although a circle of prominent elites surrounds him, not one of those "Chavistas" has the public legitimacy to be his successor. At this point, the political power struggle that arose when Chavez first announced his illness appears to have settled. In January, Chavez appointed two men who maintain significant support among the military, Diosdado Cabello and Henry Rangel Silva, to be president of the National Assembly and minister of defense, respectively. With this move, it became clear that the more pragmatic and militarily connected -- but not necessarily politically popular -- faction had risen to the fore.

The political mechanics behind the appointments are not entirely clear. Cabello and Rangel Silva are both powerful in their own right but are largely dependent on Chavez's political legitimacy to maintain the regime. Combined with persistent factionalism within the military, this dependence on Chavez makes a coup d'etat unlikely as long as Chavez is alive. Considering that Chavez's life expectancy without treatment is less than a year, his decision to undergo surgery may actually lower the potential for a crisis within the Chavez regime ahead of the Oct. 7 presidential election.

But stability among the Chavistas does not diminish the potential impact that news of a recurrence of cancer could have on Chavez's prospects for re-election. The opposition in Venezuela recently selected Henrique Capriles Radonski to oppose Chavez in the presidential election, and Capriles is counting on the public's uncertainty about Chavez's longevity and the Chavistas' lack of a clear succession plan to inspire voters to support the opposition in October.

With Chavez's earlier claims of being completely cured having been proved incorrect, events seem to be working to Capriles' favor. Chavez must choose whether he can risk holding office for one more term under such uncertain health circumstances or if he should choose a successor. With no one in Chavez's inner circle possessing significant charisma or influence, it's not entirely out of the question that Chavez could accept a transfer of power to Capriles.
Title: Venezuela: After Chávez, the Narcostate (?)
Post by: DougMacG on April 15, 2012, 02:49:48 PM
I wonder what Denny S thinks will be coming next to Venezuela?  I wonder if the Obama administration preparing a U.S. contingency to a military situation in the faux-democracy?

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/11/after_chavez_the_narcostate

After Chávez, the Narcostate
There are powerful men in Venezuela who are far worse than Hugo Chávez. And if Obama keeps "leading from behind" in Latin America, that's who we very well might get.
BY ROGER F. NORIEGA | APRIL 11, 2012

Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez has tried for 10 months to conceal the fact that he is losing his bout with cancer, determined to appear in command of his revolutionary regime and the nation's future. This past Holy Week, however, television cameras captured him pleading for his life before a crucifix in his hometown church, his mother looking on without the slightest glint of hope on her face. Chávez's raw emotion startled his inner circle and led some to question his mental health. As a result, according to my sources inside the presidential palace, Minister of Defense Gen. Henry Rangel Silva has developed a plan to impose martial law if Chávez's deteriorating condition causes any hint of instability.

Pretty dramatic stuff. So why isn't anyone outside Venezuela paying attention? Some cynics in that country still believe Chávez is hyping his illness for political advantage, while his most fervent followers expect him to make a miraculous recovery. The democratic opposition is cautiously preparing for a competitive presidential election set for Oct. 7 -- against Chávez or a substitute. And policymakers in Washington and most regional capitals are slumbering on the sidelines.

In my estimation, the approaching death of the Venezuelan caudillo could put the country on the path toward a political and social meltdown. The military cadre installed by Chávez in January already is behaving like a de facto regime determined to hold onto power at all costs. And Havana, Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing are moving to protect their interests. If U.S. President Barack Obama were to show some energetic engagement as Chávez fades, he could begin to put the brakes on Venezuela's slide, reverse Chávismo's destructive agenda, and reclaim a role for the United States in its own neighborhood. But if he fails to act, there will be hell to pay.

Sources close to Chávez's medical team tell me that for months, his doctors have been doing little more than treating symptoms, trying to stabilize their workaholic patient long enough to administer last-ditch chemo and radiation therapies. In that moment of Chávez's very public prayer for a miracle, he set aside his obsession with routing his opposition or engineering a succession of power to hardline loyalists. Perhaps he knows that his lieutenants and foreign allies are behaving as if he were already dead -- consolidating power, fashioning a "revolutionary junta," and plotting repressive measures.

One of them is longtime Chávista operator and military man Diosdado Cabello, who was installed by Chávez to lead the ruling party as well as the National Assembly in January. Cabello's appointment was meant to reassure a powerful cadre of narcomilitares -- Gen. Rangel Silva, Army Gen. Cliver Alcalá, retired intelligence chief Gen. Hugo Carvajal, and half a dozen other senior officers who have been branded drug "kingpins" by the U.S. government. These ruthless men will never surrender power and the impunity that goes with it -- and they have no illusions that elections will confer "legitimacy" on a Venezuelan narco-state, relying instead on billions of dollars in ill-gotten gain and tens of thousands of soldiers under their command.

Chavismo's civilian leadership -- including Foreign Minister Nicolás Maduro, Vice President Elías Jaua, and the president's brother, Adán Chávez, the governor of the Chávez family's home state of Barinas -- are eager to vindicate their movement's ideological agenda at the polls this fall. Maduro is extraordinarily loyal to the president, and is considered by Venezuelan political observers as the most viable substitute on the ballot. Above all, these men crave political power and will jockey to make themselves indispensable to the military leaders who are calling the shots today.   - More at the link...
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 16, 2012, 06:12:43 PM
Good find Doug.  (Someone please remind me to reach out to Denny S. for his input when I get back)

As best as I can tell the narcostate cancer is already mestastizing so the article's speculation rings true for me (haven't clicked on the URL yet). 

I would remind us of the growing connections with Iran and that China is now beginning to make moves into the Carribean. (Do not ask me for specifics, I am working from memory here)

Lets start tracking this more closely.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on April 16, 2012, 06:26:07 PM
From memory, the Cuban DGI has had "former" officers working for various drug cartels since at least the 80's and Castro sold access rights to drug smugglers to cross Cuban waters/airspace enroute to Estados Unidos. After the Soviets fell, China bought their massive listening post located in Cuba.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 16, 2012, 06:28:51 PM
IIRC the Chinese bought a company located at the mouth of the Panama Canal (the implication being a listening post) when Carter gave it back to the Panamanians too, but what I am trying to remember was reported in the last few weeks.
Title: Growing Venezuela-Iran alliance
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2012, 08:49:17 AM


http://www.dickmorris.com/iran-shipping-missiles-to-chavez-that-can-hit-us-screwed-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/

Please watch and discuss.
Title: Re: Growing Venezuela-Iran alliance
Post by: bigdog on May 17, 2012, 09:35:09 AM
This appears to be an exaggeration.  He claims that the Shahaab 3 could hit Florida, Texas and Washington, DC.   However, this seems unlikely.  The Shabaab 3 has a maximum range of 2100km (http://mapsof.net/map/shahab-3-range;http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8278026.stm).  That's a lot.  But, Caracas to Miami is 2152 (http://www.mapcrow.info/Distance_between_Caracas_VE_and_Miami_US.html).  I realize that is close, and the missles might not be placed in or near the capital.  However, to hit Texas the missles would need 50% more range (http://www.distance-calculator.co.uk/world-distances-caracas-to-texas_city.htm).  And DC is about the same (
http://www.freemaptools.com/how-far-is-it-between-Caracas_Venezuela-and-Washington-Dc_Usa.htm).  Therefore, Morris seems to be exaggerating the threat. 


Morris also claims that the US is the only market for Venezuelan oil.  I don't think this is true.  For example, "[Chavez] provides oil at a preferential price to many countries in the Caribbean through the Petrocaribe initiative" (http://www.cfr.org/economics/venezuelas-oil-based-economy/p12089).  Morris is right that Venezuela's oil is heavy, "[a]s a result, much of Venezuela’s oil production must go to specialized domestic and international refineries" (http://www.eia.gov/cabs/venezuela/oil.html).  In fact, according to Wikipedia (for whatever that is worth, "n 2005, PDVSA opened its first office in China, and announced plans to nearly triple its fleet of oil tankers in that region. Chávez has long stated that he would like to sell more Venezuelan oil to China so his country can become more independent of the United States. The United States currently accounts for 65 percent of Venezuela's exports."  So, not only is it NOT true that only the US buys the oil, if the US stopped buying the oil, it might strengthen the ties between Chavez and China.  That seems counterproductive. 


All of that said, Hezbollah in the Americas seems to be a genuine threat.  "Hugo Chávez in Venezuela and other radical anti-American populists have made common cause with Iran and Hezbollah in waging asymmetric warfare against the United States" (http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/regional/latin-america/the-mounting-hezbollah-threat-in-latin-america/; http://homeland.house.gov/hearing/subcommittee-hearing-hezbollah-latin-america-implications-us-homeland-security).  There is some disagreement with even this point, however.  A Christian Science Monitor report questions the AEI report linked about, stating "this support is largely financial, and Hezbollah is not believed to actively direct criminal enterprises in the region. Instead, the group likely obtains donations from individuals who are sympathetic to the cause of spreading Islamic revolution....[T]here is scarce evidence for allegations that the group is developing its political connections in the region" (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2012/0113/Hezbollah-in-Latin-America-an-over-hyped-threat). 



http://www.dickmorris.com/iran-shipping-missiles-to-chavez-that-can-hit-us-screwed-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/

Please watch and discuss.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2012, 10:00:33 AM
I readily grant that DM feels unrestrained to staying within his areas of competence and often hyperventilates, and acknowledge the possibility that moving his book sales can play a role.

That said, given the quite active Iranian missile development program and its trajectory of rapidly increasing range capabilities, I put little weight on the fact that currently the capabilities are a couple of hundred miles short-- its not like we are getting to inspect what is there and keep it limited to stuff than can't reach us!.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: bigdog on May 17, 2012, 10:33:38 AM
But the missles he is talking about are the ones that fly short.  It imight become a problem in future missle purchases, but as of now it isn't.  He is also wrong about the oil purchases and refining capacities, and seems to ignore the role of China with Venezuela and growing in the region.  

It should also be pointed out that he is shilling his book, in which he makes this false arguments. 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2012, 10:35:57 AM
It makes more sense to me to draw a bright line with regard to missiles.

Title: Re: Venezuela - Hugo Chávez ruthlessly consolidates his power
Post by: DougMacG on July 31, 2012, 04:05:51 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/facing-election-hugo-chavez-ruthlessly-consolidates-his-power/2012/07/26/gJQA7YPKCX_story.html

The Post’s View
Facing election, Hugo Chávez ruthlessly consolidates his power

By Editorial Board, Published: July 26  Washington Post

Having the caudillo at the top of the ticket makes a big difference: While most polls show Mr. Chávez leading opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski, they also indicate that the opposition would trounce any of Mr. Chávez’s potential successors. The president’s personal popularity lingers with some Venezuelans, who do not fault him for the soaring inflation, power and food shortages and world-beating murder rate that have emerged during his 13 years in office.

Mr. Chávez, however, is leaving little to chance. He is pouring tens of billions of dollars, much of it borrowed from China, into the economy, producing a preelection boomlet. More significantly, he is employing all the leverage of a legal system and mass media that he has politicized and subordinated to his personal control. Just how far that process of corruption has advanced is illuminated in a report by Human Rights Watch, which concludes that “the accumulation of power in the executive, the removal of institutional safeguards, and the erosion of human rights guarantees have given the Chávez government free rein to intimidate, censor and prosecute Venezuelans who criticize the president or thwart his political agenda.”


Title: Chavez’ Nationwide Address Interrupted, As Guayana Workers Protest
Post by: captainccs on August 20, 2012, 08:11:18 PM
Venezuelan presidential election is on October 7
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2012 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2012)

Tonight was bad news for Chavez.

Chavez’ Nationwide Address Interrupted, As Guayana Workers Protest

Tonight, Chavez nationwide address was interrupted when Guayana workers broke into the stage and started protesting. Chavez tried to go into the Hornest Nest, but it did not work well. Guayana workers are tired of promises. Is this a turning point in the campaign?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8U16nDLaWE&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

And this was the preamble to the protest: Mr. President, we haven’t had a collective contract for three years. And one more thing…!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo0Fo1P8FMk&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/20/chavez-nationiwde-address-interrupted-as-guyana-workers-protest/ (http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/20/chavez-nationiwde-address-interrupted-as-guyana-workers-protest/)

Title: Refinery gas leak blast kills 7
Post by: captainccs on August 25, 2012, 04:40:21 AM
In Venezuela we don't need terrorists to blow up things, we have our government that does it just as well. The lack of maintenance in many government run operations has been throughly documented over the years. Just a week ago a bridge on the main highway east of Caracas broke in two:

(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/cupira.jpg)

http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/19/venezuelan-infrastructure-suffers-from-fourteen-years-of-chavismo/ (http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/08/19/venezuelan-infrastructure-suffers-from-fourteen-years-of-chavismo/)

Not too long ago it was the electric infrastructure falling to pieces. There have been plenty warnings about the lack of maintenance and dire predictions of the consequences but they have fallen on deaf ears until the inevitable accident occurs. Then denial and crisis management kick in.

I just hope this is a wake-up call for our voters. We need to kick Chavez out come October 7th.


Blast rocks Venezuela's largest refinery, kills 7

By Sailu Urribarri | Reuters – 2 hrs 15 mins ago
2 hrs 34 mins ago

PARAGUANA, Venezuela (Reuters) - A large gas explosion shook Venezuela's biggest refinery, the 645,000-barrels-per-day Amuay facility, in the early hours of Saturday, killing seven people, authorities said.

Another 48 people were injured by the blast, which originated in a gas leak and caused damage both within the facility and to nearby houses, the local governor said.

Based in the west of the South American OPEC nation, Amuay is part of the Paraguana Refining Center, one of the biggest refinery complexes in the world with an overall capacity of 955,000 bpd.

"There was a gas leak," Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told state TV. "A cloud of gas exploded ... it was a significant explosion, there are appreciable damages to infrastructure and houses opposite the refinery."

Emergency workers were at the scene, where smoke and flames could be seen over the facility.

Local Falcon state governor Stella Lugo said the situation was, however, under control several hours after the explosion at about 1 a.m. local time.

"There's no risk of another explosion," she told state TV. "Right now, we're attending to the injured."

Amuay is operated by state-owned PDVSA which has struggled with repeated refinery problems in recent years, affecting its production figures and ability to fulfil ambitious expansion plans.

Power faults, accidents and planned stoppages for maintenance have hit deliveries from South America's biggest oil exporter.

Ivan Freites, a union leader at PDVSA, said foam was being used to control the fire.

(Reporting by Sailu Urribarri and Deisy Buitrago; Writing by Andrew Cawthorne, Editing by Rosalind Russell)


http://news.yahoo.com/gas-explosion-rocks-venezuelas-largest-refinery-080240565--finance.html (http://news.yahoo.com/gas-explosion-rocks-venezuelas-largest-refinery-080240565--finance.html)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 25, 2012, 07:51:26 AM
Glad to have you with us again CCCS.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 26, 2012, 04:03:08 AM
Glad to have you with us again CCCS.

Crafty Dog, if one were to pay attention continually to politics one would lose one's mined! My interest remains constant but my attention to detail (and reporting) waxes and wanes as events unfold, specially events that can change the direction of the country like a election.

BTW, the refinery explosion toll had risen to 24 dead and 80 wounded by noon yesterday.
Title: Death toll rises to 39
Post by: captainccs on August 26, 2012, 04:21:46 AM
Many of the victims were national guard. Now they realize that the barracks were "too close" to dangerous installations. So much for planning!


Explosion kills 39 at Venezuela's biggest refinery
By Sailu Urribarri and Marianna Parraga | Reuters – 10 hrs ago

PARAGUANA/CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - An explosion tore through Venezuela's biggest refinery on Saturday, killing at least 39 people, wounding dozens and halting operations at the facility in the worst accident to hit the OPEC nation's oil industry.

Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez told Reuters no production units at the Amuay refinery were affected and that there were no plans to halt exports, a sign that the incident will likely have little impact on fuel prices.

Photographs taken shortly after the pre-dawn blast showed wrecked vehicles, flattened fences and giant storage tanks buckling and crumpling as flames lit the night sky. A National Guard building in the area was shattered and officials said a 10-year-old child was among the dead.

A gas leak caused the explosion and most of those killed were National Guard troops who were providing security for the 645,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) facility, Ramirez said, adding that the fire was under control.

"There was a National Guard barracks near the explosion. ... The installation was too close to the operations," Ramirez told Reuters in an exclusive telephone interview, adding that production could resume at Amuay within two days at most.

"We need to boost production at other refineries and look for floating storage near the complex," he said.

The incident follows repeated accidents and outages during the last decade across installations run by state oil company PDVSA that have limited output and crimped expansion plans.

Amuay has partially shut operations at least twice this year due to a small fire and the failure of a cooling unit.

Those problems have spurred accusations of inept management by the government of President Hugo Chavez, who is running for re-election on October 7.

Acrimony over the explosion could spill over into an already bitter campaign, but s unlikely to overtake larger political concerns such as crime and the economy.

"I want to convey the deepest pain that I've felt in my heart and soul since I started to get information about this tragedy," Chavez said in phone call to state TV. He declared three days of mourning.

FIRE UNDER CONTROL

Venezuela has traditionally been a big supplier of fuel to the United States and the Caribbean, but refinery shutdowns have become so common that they rarely affect market prices.

Traders told Reuters the docks at the refinery were shut, and tankers were anchored offshore waiting. They said this would cause delays to some of the country's exports.

The explosion broke windows at homes in the area, a peninsula in the Caribbean sea in western Venezuela, as well as at Amuay's main administrative building.

The blast was also felt out at sea in the Paraguana bay, where some crew members on moored tankers were knocked off their feet by the shockwave, one shipping source said.

Ramirez said the fire that started after the explosion had only affected nine storage tanks holding mostly crude oil and some processed fuels including naphtha.

Officials said two tanks were still burning off residual fuel, and a Reuters witness at the scene said large black clouds of smoke still hung above the area.

Ramirez said existing fuel stocks around the country were sufficient to guarantee 10 days of exports and local sales. PDVSA has no plans to invoke force majeure, he said, which lets companies stop shipments due to accidents or extreme weather.

Amuay, together with a neighbouring facility, forms part of the Paraguana Refining Center, the second-biggest refinery complex in the world, with an overall capacity of 955,000 bpd.

In 2010, there was a massive fire at a PDVSA fuel terminal on the Caribbean island of Bonaire, then a blaze at a dock at the Paraguana complex that halted shipping for four days.

Also in 2010, a natural gas exploration rig, the Aban Pearl, sank in the Caribbean. All 95 workers were rescued safely.

(Additional reporting by Deisy Buitrago, Marianna Parraga and Andrew Cawthorne in Caracas; Writing by Daniel Wallis; Editing by Kieran Murray, Sandra Maler and Todd Eastham)

http://news.yahoo.com/explosion-kills-39-venezuelas-biggest-refinery-010335034.html (http://news.yahoo.com/explosion-kills-39-venezuelas-biggest-refinery-010335034.html)


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 14, 2012, 06:11:53 AM




Text Size
 



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Summary
 


STR/AFP/GettyImages
 
Men hurl objects before a Sept. 12 campaign stop by opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela
 


Supporters of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez fought with supporters of opposition candidate Miranda state Gov. Henrique Capriles Radonski on Sept. 12 in the biggest instance of political violence so far in Venezuela's presidential campaign. Voters will go to the polls Oct. 7 to determine whether Chavez will serve a fourth consecutive term as president. Over the course of the next three weeks, more violent political clashes can be expected throughout the country.
 


Analysis
 
It is unclear how the Sept. 12 clashes started, but the altercation occurred after an advance team from the Capriles campaign arrived at the airport in Puerto Cabello, Carabobo state, about 122 kilometers (75 miles) west of Caracas. Dozens of Chavez and Capriles supporters threw rocks at one another, several vehicles were reportedly set on fire, and more than a dozen people sustained minor injuries.
 





.
 
The campaigns have traded accusations about whose supporters instigated the incident. United Socialist Party of Venezuela members have accused the Capriles campaign of starting the clash. Puerto Cabello Mayor Rafael Lacava said Capriles collaborated with Carabobo state Gov. Henrique Salas Feo to hire mercenaries to generate anxiety in the crowd, thus bringing about the clashes. Capriles' supporters have made similar accusations against the Chavez campaign. Tomas Guanipa, the head of Capriles' Justice First party, claims to have a document generated by the Chavez campaign directing party members to incite "hatred and violence." During an earlier incident on Sept. 2 in western Venezuela, opposition politician Vicente Bello from the New Era party, which is supporting Capriles in the election, claimed that Chavez supporters shot into a crowd of opposition supporters during a voting drill, injuring four.
 
These developments have created an atmosphere of tension and likely presage more violent incidents at political events throughout the country. Even before the recent clashes, Venezuela had been experiencing increased volatility. Throughout early 2012, the government's internal stability was threatened by Chavez's illness. While Chavez appears well enough to stand for election, questions about his health remain. During the campaign, Chavez and members of his administration have said they believe civil war will erupt if the opposition wins the election. While this is obviously intended to scare voters away from voting for the opposition, it could also be a warning to Chavez's fractious inner circle, which the Venezuelan president has taken several measures to keep under his control.
 
In 2007, Chavez announced the creation of Bolivarian militias that would report to Chavez and whose mission was to support the ideological goals of the administration. These and other pro-Chavez armed groups exist today and serve as an insurance policy of sorts for the Chavez administration. By forming an armed force that can instigate chaos in the event of a coup, Chavez made any attempt to depose him directly or destabilize his government more risky. The existence of these armed groups, the plethora of small arms trafficking in South America and the extreme political polarization in Venezuela all lend credence to Chavez's warnings of conflict, if not outright civil war, in the event of an opposition victory. But the militias also serve as a bulwark against any elements within the military or political elite who see a future for Venezuela that does not include an ailing Chavez.
 
The main purpose of the increasingly forceful rhetoric is to generate enthusiasm for the election. While polls are inconsistent and unreliable in Venezuela, there are some indications that Capriles may be gaining against the still quite popular Chavez. Possibly as a result of these perceived advances, the Chavez campaign is being extremely aggressive. Throughout Venezuela, loudspeakers on main streets have been playing Chavez speeches and issuing calls to support the government, adding to the sense of uncertainty and tension surrounding the upcoming elections.
 
The occasional violent confrontation is not unusual for political events in Venezuela, and clashes can be expected in Venezuela in the remaining three weeks before the elections. After 13 years in power, the stakes are high for Chavez and his inner circle. Chavez's election in 1999 unseated Venezuela's previous political elite. In the time since, Chavez and his associates have become the new political elite, and they can be expected to take assertive measures to retain that status.


Read more: Venezuela's Stability at Risk Ahead of Election | Stratfor
Title: A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate
Post by: captainccs on September 14, 2012, 06:23:04 AM
This article has lots of good pictures, I suggest you go read the original at:

A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate (http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/09/12/a-day-in-the-life-of-the-venezuelan-opposition-candidate/)



A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate
September 12, 2012

Most days, the Capriles campaign tries not to pre-announce where they are going, in order to avoid Chavista thugs from trying to boycott the opposition campaign. This can not be done when he is going to a large city, where preparations are more complex, particularly in terms of security. A couple of weeks ago, Chavistas closed the Ciudad Bolivar airport to stop him from holding a rally that took place anyway. Today, it was Puerto Cabello´s turn.
From the early hours of the morning Chavista bands were blocking the roads and the airport, some arriving in Government owned vehicles. This is a picture of the main road to Puerto Cabello from the airport:

Is not a great picture, but you can see the red shirts blocking the road. this was not accidental, one of the Chavista organizers had tweeted it early in the morning:

“Today at 7 AM, in front of the Bartolome Salom airport the working people of Puerto Cabello say “no” to the fascist who sucks up to the Empire” said @denniscandanga, shown on the right pane as he participated in the violent actions of the day today.
And here is the picture of the airport:

where you can see how violent they got, and there is more in the following picture, where you see some action by the pro-Chavez thugs in the highway leading to the airport:

Of course, it was the property of the Capriles campaign that was damaged. This is what was left of the sound truck:

This is the truck that suffered less damage, the other one was not so lucky:

shown burning in the above picture and then later after it had been incinerated:

But it did not matter, candidate Capriles pressed on, arriving in Puerto Cabello by boat:

And holding the planned rally, which I am sure was much larger than expected as news of the aggression spread around Puerto Cabello (Although a third day of blackouts I am sure helped):

Of course, as Daniel reports, after the events, Government media said the injured were Chavistas and the aggressors were the opposition in the upside down world of Chavismo.

But Capriles did not let himself be intimidated, he pressed on and had a very successful day.

Just a day in the life of the opposition candidate in Venezuela.
(Who is the fascist here?)
Title: Chavez can no longer walkj
Post by: captainccs on September 15, 2012, 09:05:51 PM
Hugo Chavez: “As You Know, I Can No Longer Walk”
September 15, 2012


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5E_hSJg9lQ&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

An emotional and weeping  Chavez confesses that he can no longer walk at a rally in Apure. Slip of the tongue or once again appealing to pity?


http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/09/15/hugo-chavez-as-you-know-i-can-no-longer-walk/
Title: Another refinery fire
Post by: captainccs on September 22, 2012, 09:36:27 AM
Lightning supposedly set ablaze two storage tanks in the El Palito refinery, the old Mobil Oil refinery. Mercifully no one was hurt.

That part of Venezuela has the most awesome electrical storms I have ever seen, the night lights up almost like day but with an erie blue amid terrifying crashes of thunder. But a properly protected installation should not fall victim to lightning and it hadn't for decades. I can only assume that it is part of the lack of maintenance on the part of our national oil company, PDVSA.


Crews extinguish fire at Venezuela's El Palito refinery

(http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2012-09-22T150300Z_1_CBRE88L15T600_RTROPTP_2_CNEWS-US-VENEZUELA-REFINERY.JPG)

CARACAS (Reuters) - Firefighters extinguished a blaze in a fuel storage tank at Venezuela's El Palito refinery, state oil company PDVSA said on Saturday.

The fire was started by a lightning bolt during a storm Wednesday night, but the 146,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) El Palito facility continued operating. Two tanks were initially set alight, but the fire in one was put out within hours.

In a statement, PDVSA said the blaze in the second storage tank was completely extinguished late on Friday.

No one was hurt in Wednesday night's lightning strike.

The second refinery accident in a month has increased concerns about state oil company PDVSA's safety record and practices ahead of an October 7 presidential election.

In August, PDVSA halted almost all output at the country's biggest refinery, Amuay, for six days after a gas leak caused an explosion that killed 42 people.

PDVSA has suffered a string of accidents, outages and unplanned stoppages for maintenance across its refinery network in recent years, hurting the OPEC nation's vital fuel exports.

http://news.yahoo.com/crews-extinguish-fire-venezuelas-el-palito-refinery-150300187.html

Title: Re: Venezuelan elections this Sunday, Time to retire Chavez
Post by: DougMacG on October 04, 2012, 02:07:46 PM
I don't know how Chavez could lose if he still controls the counting of votes, but let us hope...

Looking forward to first hand reporting on the forum.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 04, 2012, 02:10:14 PM
We are fortunate to have captainccs reporting for us.
Title: Re: Venezuelan elections this Sunday, Time to retire Chavez
Post by: captainccs on October 04, 2012, 02:43:49 PM
I don't know how Chavez could lose if he still controls the counting of votes, but let us hope...


He does and he doesn't. Each polling place is divided into "tables" depending on the number of voters assigned to the place. To vote you first check in then you vote on a voting machine which is connected to the CNE (Consejo Nacional Electoral) which is in charge of elections. That does give the government an advantage in that they can monitor the progress of the vote in real time. But the electronic results are not the official results. After you vote, the machine gives you a ticket with your choices printed on it. You deposit this ballot in a box. The vote is then manually counted at each table. Since there are members of most parties as witnesses at most tables, the opposition can easily tally the vote by sending the results by cell phone to the opposition headquarters. There are likely to be differences but they cannot be extreme. The opposition does need a resounding victory because if it is "too close to call" we'll lose.

The most recent trustworthy poll had Capriles wining by 3%. Pundits are hedging which is probably a good thing. Here is the latest:


Win or lose, Capriles may win in Venezuela

By Andres Oppenheimer

Anything is possible in Venezuela’s elections Sunday, but there is a good chance that opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski will do better than any of his predecessors in the polls, and that — win or lose — he will put President Hugo Chavez’s 14-year-old regime against the ropes.

There is a plausible scenario that even if Capriles loses by a narrow margin, a good showing in Sunday’s election will allow him to keep the opposition unified, and to become a viable alternative to a president who may have terminal cancer, and who has no successor who could beat Capriles.

Under Venezuela’s constitution, if the president dies within the first four years of his term, new elections must be held within 30 days. If Capriles emerged as a strong opposition leader from this election, he would have a good chance of becoming the next president before Chavez’s term expires.

Many analysts see change in the air. In a Sept. 26 report entitled “Now or in a little while,” Barclays bank told its clients that “even in the event of a Chavez victory, we think that given the signs of his weak health conditions, if not now, political change could come in just a little while.”

While Chavez looks better than a few months ago and says that he is free from cancer, there are serious doubts that he has fully recovered. There are some reasons to believe that he now looks better not because he is cured from cancer, but because he has interrupted his treatment.

A study of Chavez’s daily public appearances by ODH, a Venezuelan consulting firm, shows that the president’s average daily television appearances during the first three weeks of September were significantly shorter than during the same period in August, and also shorter than his public appearances during the same period before the 2006 elections.

That would be hard to explain unless Chavez is ill: It doesn’t make sense for him to reduce his public appearances in the final stretch of the campaign. And it doesn’t make sense for him to have campaigned much harder in 2006 — when he enjoyed a huge lead in the polls — than nowadays.

As for Sunday’s vote, Chavez enjoys a clear advantage thanks to a combination of slanted electoral rules, intimidation of opposition voters, massive use of government petrodollars and a virtual control of television time.

As Capriles told me in a recent interview, “this is a fight of David versus Goliath, where I’m running against all of the state’s resources” and “against a government that controls all the institutions, and plays dirty.” Still, Venezuelans are suffering from Latin America’s highest inflation levels, record crime rates, food shortages and power outages, and are eager for change, he said.

Several polls give Chavez a 10-point lead, although a recent poll by the respected Consultores 21 and others show Capriles winning by a 3 percent margin.

But most pollsters agree that they have never seen the Venezuelan opposition as energized as today. While in the 2006 presidential elections Chavez won 63 percent of the vote and opposition leader Manuel Rosales got 37 percent, most expect a much closer result on Sunday.

Barring a Capriles upset victory — much like happened in Chile in 1989 or in Nicaragua in 1990, where the opposition won despite facing equally unfair election conditions — he is likely to get closer to 50 percent of the vote. If he gets close to that, he will be seen by many as a president-in-waiting.

Skeptics say the “Capriles now-or-a-little-later” scenario is too optimistic, because Capriles has generated so much enthusiasm among his followers that a defeat on Sunday would demoralize them, paralyze the opposition and perhaps even divide it. Millions of anti-Chavez Venezuelans would conclude there was fraud, and that there is no hope for democratic change, the argument goes.

My opinion: I’m somewhat more optimistic. If Capriles gets close to 50 percent of the vote, he will play his cards well, and will not allow his political momentum to evaporate.

He is not likely to cry fraud if he loses by a margin that he can’t dispute, because doing so would encourage a widespread perception within the anti-Chavez movement that Venezuela’s elections are rigged, and that would lead many to stay at home for the December 16 governors’ elections, and for the April 2013 mayoral elections.

The odds are against Capriles, but he has better chances than any previous opposition leader to succeed Chavez. Win or lose on Sunday, he could still win in the end.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/03/3033066/win-or-lose-capriles-may-win-in.html#storylink=cpy
Title: Security Message for U.S. Citizens: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on October 04, 2012, 02:50:50 PM
Received via email:


Security Message for U.S. Citizens: Venezuela
 
Presidential elections in Venezuela will be held this Sunday, October 7. While the electoral campaign to date has been generally peaceful, incidents of violence have occurred. Demonstrations by supporters of the two main candidates may occur in coming days, particularly in the vicinity of polling centers and traditional gathering points. In addition to previous guidance provided to U.S. citizens, we offer the following recommendations for Sunday October 7, and prudentially, for Monday, October 8:
 
Minimize being out in public.
Keep cellular telephones charged.
Where possible, avoid polling stations and other large public gatherings.
 
 We wish to remind U.S. citizens that even demonstrations intended to be peaceful can turn confrontational and possibly escalate into violence. American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations if possible, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations. Since the timing and routes of marches and demonstrations are always subject to change, American citizens should monitor local media sources and the Embassy’s website, through the American Citizens’ “Demonstrations” link, for new developments.
 
 
Please review your emails for subsequent updates on the situation during the next few days.
For the latest security information, U.S. citizens traveling abroad should regularly monitor the Department's Internet web site at http://travel.state.gov where the current Worldwide Caution Public Announcement, Travel Warnings and Public Announcements can be found. Up to date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the United States, or, for callers outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays). To receive the latest security information American citizens traveling or residing overseas are encouraged to enroll in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) at https://travelregistration.state.gov.
 
The U.S. Embassy in Caracas is located on Calle F con Calle Suapure, Lomas de Valle Arriba. The telephone number during business hours (8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.) is (011) 58-212-975-6411. For after-hours emergencies use (011) 58-212-907-8400. The fax is (011) 58-212-907-8199. Please check the Embassy website for additional information at http://caracas.usembassy.gov.
Title: Stratfor: Possible change
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 05, 2012, 07:50:11 AM
The Implications of Possible Regime Change
October 5, 2012 | 1046 GMT

Summary

Venezuela is at a crossroads in history. Should he win the Oct. 7 vote, presidential challenger Henrique Capriles Radonski would be constrained greatly by the policies and systems left by President Hugo Chavez's administration. But a change in leadership could transform Venezuela and its regional role, possibly to the extent that Cuba could seek reconciliation with the United States.
 
Analysis
 
The run-up to the election has been tumultuous. A little more than a year ago, Chavez was diagnosed with cancer, for which he received several surgeries. The past year has been rife with rumors of his impending death and although questions about his health remain, Chavez insists he is strong enough to stand for another six-year term amid collapsing infrastructure and increasing unrest.
 






.
 

Chavez's opponent, Capriles, is the young governor from Miranda state. Capriles' campaign relies on emphasizing Chavez-like redistributive policies while promising reforms designed to attract foreign investment, increase oil production and solve Venezuela's profound economic problems.
 
Though it is not accurate to say that governance in Venezuela is synonymous with "Chavismo" -- Chavez's political ideology -- the Venezuelan president has decisively changed the nature of Venezuelan politics. Chavez is deeply influential in every aspect of government. Moreover, he has set a precedent that will force future Venezuelan politicians to prioritize populism and income redistribution.
 
When Chavez came to power in 1999, it was in the wake of more than a decade of profound public dissatisfaction with a shaky economy amid regional economic instability. Despite decades of exorbitant oil profits flowing into Venezuela, the management of that wealth by two main parties who took turns in power -- the Democratic Action Party and the Christian Democratic Party -- left millions of Venezuelans in poverty and created stark socioeconomic divisions.
 
Chavez's populist policies were predictable. Venezuela's political and economic elite maintained power by controlling oil resources and the government. Chavez came to power by promising to address the country's poverty and to use the government to give Venezuelans a share of the country's oil wealth. With enormous popular support, Chavez uprooted the elite and established his own inner circle. In 2002, when a coup attempt supported by the managerial staff of Petroleos de Venezuela attempted to unseat Chavez, the president cut the national oil company's staff and took control of the country and its many resources. In doing so, Chavez crippled Petroleos de Venezuela's production capacity. By breaking the national oil company, Chavez also broke the country's elite -- the kind of populist policy that was a natural evolution of Venezuelan politics.
 
Since then, his management style -- ad hoc consolidation of the economy -- has led to rising inefficiencies across numerous sectors. The electricity sector that was aged when he came to office is now falling apart. Transportation infrastructure is literally collapsing, and prisons are overcrowded with heavily armed gangs, many of whose members have been incarcerated for years without ever being tried.
 
These problems would face Capriles just as they have faced Chavez. Capriles will be able to make some changes, but he will encounter profound difficulties. Open questions remain about the loyalties of the military, which is deeply involved in the drug trade. Moreover, Capriles will not be able to drastically reduce social spending without facing significant social unrest, which means that large portions of the central government and Petroleos de Venezuela budgets will be locked in place, reducing fiscal flexibility. His main policy and key hope will be attracting foreign investment to increase oil production and national revenues.
 
Venezuela's International Reputation
 
During Chavez's presidency, Venezuela's external influence has expanded greatly, and international relations have become more important to the administration. Because of suspicions that the United States was at least peripherally involved in the 2002 coup attempt, that event was for Chavez what the failed Bay of Pigs invasion was for Cuban leader Fidel Castro: a trigger for a strategic repositioning away from the United States. But where Castro was able to form an alliance with the Soviet Union, Chavez has spent the past decade building a foreign policy around establishing piecemeal relationships with countries whose relationships with the United States are strained. Without a clear global power to serve as a political ally, Chavez has established himself as a symbol of international resistance to U.S. global domination.
 
Nevertheless, Venezuela's independence has largely remained in the realm of symbolism and rhetoric. The United States is still far and away Venezuela's largest trading partner. Efforts to diversify away from the United States as an oil export market have resulted in a complex trade and financing relationship with China that has almost certainly required Venezuela to accept a lower market price for its oil -- a likely factor in domestic cash flow problems.
 
However, in its immediate region, Venezuela has found opportunities for partnership and some influence with many governments with similar aims. Countries like Ecuador and Nicaragua, whose leaders have pursued strategies largely independent of U.S. influence, have benefited from Venezuela's oil expertise and oil exports. Argentina, though largely focused on its own domestic challenges, has found Venezuela to be a willing and convenient trade partner (Argentina has an advantage in food production, which has declined in Venezuela). For these countries, a change in leadership in Venezuela may mean cooler relations, but a change in Venezuela's policy toward these countries will have a relatively limited impact.
 
Two Countries to Watch
 








VIDEO: Evolving U.S.-Colombian Relations (Dispatch)
.The two most important relationships for Venezuela are with Colombia and Cuba. Venezuela and Colombia are strategic rivals and will remain so regardless of who holds power in Caracas. Nevertheless, a Venezuelan government that is more open to U.S. influence could benefit Colombia, whose fight against international drug trafficking groups is critical for economic development prospects. Venezuela's lack of domestic enforcement hinders Colombia's efforts, so a shift in Caracas' domestic law enforcement priorities could help Bogota, which is betting on peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia to stabilize the volatile security environment and allow sustained economic growth in Colombia.
 
Cuba's relationship with Venezuela has been a key element of both Venezuela's role in the region and the geopolitical tensions in the Caribbean Basin. Venezuela's deliveries of around 100,000 barrels per day of petroleum products to Cuba are a lifeline for the island nation. Outside of tourism, Cuba's development prospects without significant reforms historically have been limited, and after the social and economic chaos of the 1990s that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union, Cuba turned to Venezuela to keep the island's economy afloat.
 
A change in government in Caracas would not necessarily mean an immediate abrogation of that relationship. However, Capriles has made it clear that he will reconsider the relationship. Even if Chavez is re-elected, Cuba is vulnerable to any challenges to Venezuela's economic stability. With this in mind, Cuban planners have been slowly implementing reforms to the domestic economy.
 
The big question is when Cuba will reconcile its relationship with the United States. If Capriles is elected, Caracas may accelerate these considerations, removing the guarantee of Venezuelan subsidies, pushing Havana to make the concessions necessary for the United States to lift the embargo and speeding up economic reforms. Depending on the results of the U.S. elections, political dynamics in Washington could evolve enough to make this move in tandem with Cuba.
.

Read more: Venezuela: The Implications of Possible Regime Change | Stratfor
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on October 05, 2012, 08:48:18 AM
Quote
Moreover, he has set a precedent that will force future Venezuelan politicians to prioritize populism and income redistribution.

Not really. Populism has been the centerpiece of all governments since 1958. What has changed is that Chavez is more anti business than his predecessors. It has been a see-saw.

Rómulo Betancourt, the first democratic president, unlike Chávez, was a real communist, but a pragmatic politician. When he started out he put an end to the so called "white elephants" -- grandiose public projects by General Marcos Pérez Jiménez. He soon realized that oil is what brings in foreign exchange but being capital intensive it employs few people. Construction, on the other hand, is labor intensive. Being pragmatic, Betancourt soon started up new public infrastructure projects. It took Chavismo almost a decade to start working seriously on infrastructure projects.

With successive governments the labor laws were made ever more labor friendly until production faltered badly. Then the governments reversed gears. Same with price controls, CAP instituted them during his first government and eliminated them in his second. Raising the price of gas at the pump cost him his job.

I've said it before and I say it again, Venezuela has never had a right of center government since 1958 nor is it likely to have one in the visible future, not until the private productive capacity matches the fossil fuel wealth, an unlikely scenario considering that Venezuela has one of the largest oil deposits in the world for a relatively small population.

To get a better understanding of Venezuela, Stratfor should read Los Amos de Valley (The Owners of the Valley, the valley being where Caracas is located), a humorous novel based on history. Venezuela has always had an "elite" but one that changes over time. The original elite was composed of conquistadors. Over time old members disappeared and new ones rose. The new ones came from distant places, the USA, Germany, the Canary Islands, Lebanon, Bohemia. Venezuela is as much a melting pot as the USA. What has happened now is that Chavistas have displaced some of the incumbent Owners of the Valley.

There is no revolution in Venezuela, no matter how loudly Chávez claims one. All that has happened is a "coup d'etat" or as we like to say: "quítate tu pa' ponerme yo" (let me have your place). Chávez is just a question of time. He is charismatic any wily. But he is as mortal as the rest of us.

It's a fun read! Los amos del valle (Spanish Edition) (http://www.amazon.com/Los-amos-valle-Spanish-Edition/dp/8428603367)  by Francisco J Herrera Luque (Author)

Denny Schlesinger
Title: The Oligarchy of Money
Post by: captainccs on October 05, 2012, 10:33:30 AM
Would you build your capitalist marketing plan on a communist tract?

We did when we set up our management consulting business in Caracas. We had to decide who to market to. We identified three markets:

1.- Government
2.- Local subsidiaries of multinational companies
3.- Venezuelan private enterprise

We decided on the third group, but, ¿Who to attack first? We figured we should go after the most prominent business groups because, if we succeeded with them, it would be easy to sell to smaller groups. The next question was ¿Who are they?

The answer was provided by a notable communist professor of the Universidad Central de Venezuela (our main communist hatchery, like UC Berkeley?), Doming Alberto Rangel. His 1971 book "la oligarquía del dinero" (The Oligarchy of Money), mapped the then current Owners of the Valley:

 1.- Vollmer-Zuloaga (then the richest group in Latin America)
 2.- Mendoza (Old man died, group broke up)
 3.- Banco Unión (Bank group broke up)
 4.- Boulton
 5.- Polar (Going stronger than ever)
 6.- Delfino
 7.- Neuman
 8.- Phelps
 9.- Sosa Rodriguez
10.- Blohm
11.- Tamayo
12.- Dominguez

Several groups have disappeared and current powerhouses like Cisneros (not on the list) were just upstarts. Vollmer caved in to Chavez to survive.

La oligarquía del dinero (http://books.google.co.ve/books/about/La_oligarqu%C3%ADa_del_dinero.html?id=bbhOMAEACAAJ&redir_esc=y) by Doming Alberto Rangel

Denny Schlesinger
 


Title: Back from voting
Post by: captainccs on October 07, 2012, 11:42:54 AM
I walked  from Los Caobos to Altamira, a leisurely one and a half hour walk. There was a big turnout al all the polling stations I went past but one. Despite being "3a edad" (senior citizen) it took me from 9:30 to 12:00 noon (2.5 hours) to vote. They were applying "operación morrocy" (delaying tactics). Only four fingerprint machines (capta huella) were working and getting past them was snail paced. The actual voting was quite fast. Early on the picture of your candidate took a long time to show up and if you pressed the vote button before the picture was complete you vote was null. The notice spread quickly. For me the picture of the candidate appeared instantly. Earlier there were stories about the picture taking for ever.

The delay at the fingerprint machines was so bad that they had to allow people (at least senior citizens) to go past them but to do that you first had to find out the book and page where you are listed. There was only one set of lists and the crowding and shoving was quite disagreeable.

Why they had the fingerprint machines when you had to use a second fingerprint machine to vote is quite beyond me. Either bureaucratic stupidity or purposeful delaying tactics. During the several days leading up to Sunday it had rained and my gut feeling is that the government was trying to get the opposition to go home without voting. Today was a beautiful sunny day in Caracas. When the process got to be very slow people started chanting "we want to vote!" I'm not sure if that had any effect on the "authorities" but it did get me past the fingerprint machines.

Turnout was strong at all the polling stations I went past but one but that one never seems to have a lot of people. People were happy and determined to vote. I think we will have a good turnout.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Electoral Tourism In Caracas
Post by: captainccs on October 07, 2012, 11:52:30 AM
Electoral Tourism In Caracas (http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/10/07/electoral-tourism-in-caracas/) (visit the link)
Title: Chavez's socialist rule at risk as Venezuelans vote
Post by: captainccs on October 07, 2012, 02:07:01 PM
It's 4:30 VE (local time) and the weather is holding up just fine which is good news as people won't need to flee the rain.



Chavez's socialist rule at risk as Venezuelans vote

By Daniel Wallis and Todd Benson | Reuters – 14 mins ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelans lined up for hours in searing tropical heat on Sunday to vote in the biggest electoral test yet to President Hugo Chavez's socialist rule from a young rival tapping into discontent over crime and cronyism.

Henrique Capriles, a centrist state governor, narrowed the gap with Chavez in final polls thanks to a vigorous campaign that generated widespread enthusiasm, giving the opposition its best chance in 14 years to unseat the popular president and take the reins of South America's leading oil exporter.

Chavez has used record oil revenue to support ideological allies around the world while preaching a fiercely anti-American line, so the election is being watched eagerly from the United States and Cuba to Belarus and Iran.

Thousands of Chavez supporters lined the streets to welcome him as he arrived at the school in a Caracas hillside slum where he cast his vote. Some handed him flowers, and one elderly woman serenaded the president with a folk song in his honor.

"Today is a day of joy, a day of democracy, a day for the fatherland," Chavez said, adding that a massive turnout meant that voting could take longer than expected.

In a show of vigor, Chavez - who underwent grueling cancer treatment in the past year - shadow-boxed with U.S. actor Danny Glover, who was on hand with some other celebrity fans of the Venezuelan leader to watch him vote.

In poor neighborhoods, where Chavez draws his most fervent following, supporters blew bugles and trumpets in a predawn wake-up call. In the run-down center of Caracas, red-clad loyalists shouted "Long live Chavez!" from the back of trucks.

Despite his remarkable comeback from cancer, Chavez, 58, could not match the energy of past campaigns - or the pace set by his 40-year-old basketball-loving opponent.

Capriles, who showed up to vote in his lucky shoes, struck a conciliatory tone, urging Venezuelans resolve their differences at the ballot box.

"Whatever the people decide today is sacred," he said to screaming applause from supporters. "To know how to win, you have to know how to lose."

In wealthy enclaves of the capital, Capriles supporters geared up for the vote by banging pots and pans overnight.

"Today I'm doing my bit to build a new Venezuela," said Francesca Pipoli, 26, walking to vote with two friends in the city's upscale Sebucan district. "Capriles for president!" all three sang in the street. "Henrique, marry me!" said one.

In the United States, Venezuelan expats flocked to New Orleans to vote - mostly for Capriles - after Chavez closed the country's consulate in Miami earlier this year.

NO FORMAL ELECTION OBSERVERS

Most well-known pollsters put Chavez in front. But two have Capriles just ahead, and his numbers have crept up in others.

Some worry that violence could break out if the result is contested. There are no formal international observers, but a delegation from the UNASUR group of South American nations is in Venezuela to "accompany" the vote.

Local groups are also monitoring the election and both sides say they trust the electronic, fingerprint voting system. The opposition deployed witnesses to all of the 13,810 polling centers, from tiny Amazon villages to tough Caracas slums.

In a politically polarized country where firearms are common and the murder rate is one of the world's highest, tensions have risen in recent weeks as both campaigns used harsh rhetoric. Three Capriles activists were shot and killed by alleged Chavez loyalists on September 29 at a campaign rally in rural Venezuela.

After voting, Chavez pledged to respect the election results and called on the opposition - who he suggested could cry foul if he comes out on top - to do the same. Some opposition activists fear Chavez could refuse to step down if he loses.

A Capriles victory would unseat the most vocal critic of the United States in Latin America, and could lead to new deals for oil companies in an OPEC nation that pumps about 3 million barrels a day and boasts the world's biggest crude reserves.

OBSTACLES TO ANY TRANSITION

Capriles wants to copy Brazil's model of respect for private enterprise with strong social welfare programs if he is elected - but he would face big challenges from day one. For starters, he would not take office until January 2013, meaning Chavez loyalists could throw obstacles in the way of the transition.

He would also have to develop a plan to tackle high inflation, price distortions and an overvalued currency, while surely butting heads with the National Assembly, judiciary and state oil company PDVSA - all dominated by "Chavistas."

Another big task would be to figure out the real level of state finances. Last month, a Reuters investigation found that half of public investment went into a secretive off-budget fund that is controlled by Chavez and has no oversight by Congress.

The president has denounced his foes as traitors and told voters they plan to cancel his signature social "missions," which range from subsidized food stores to programs that build houses and pay cash stipends to poor women with children.

Tens of thousands of new homes have been handed over this year, often to tearful Chavez supporters at televised events.

If Chavez wins, he would likely consolidate state control over Venezuela's economy and continue backing leftist governments across Latin America such as communist-led Cuba, which receives Venezuelan oil at a discount.

Any recurrence of Chavez's cancer would be a big blow to his plans, however, and could give the opposition another chance.

Investors who have made Venezuela's bonds some of the most widely traded emerging market debt are on tenterhooks.

"There is a perception that a tight electoral outcome may trigger social and political unrest and market volatility," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Voting runs from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. (1030-2230 GMT), although polls will stay open later if there are still queues. Results are due any time starting late on Sunday evening.

The electoral authority says it will only announce the results once there is an "irreversible trend" and parties are barred from declaring victory in advance of that announcement. (To follow us on Twitter: @ReutersVzla) (For multimedia coverage, go to http://reut.rs/QzUtvN)

(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo, Liamar Ramos and Girish Gupta; Editing by Doina Chiacu)

http://news.yahoo.com/chavezs-socialist-rule-risk-venezuelans-vote-050439730.html
Title: It's official, Venezuela lost.
Post by: captainccs on October 07, 2012, 08:10:11 PM
It's official, Venezuela lost.

Very high turnout, less than 20% abstention. First bulletin with about 90% of the votes counted:

Chavez 54.44%
Capriles 44.97%
Others 0.60%

Denny Schlesinger


Hugo Chávez Reelected With More Than One Million Votes (http://devilsexcrement.com/2012/10/07/hugo-chavez-reelected-with-more-than-one-million-votes/)

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 08, 2012, 12:23:00 AM
So very sorry to hear that Denny.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on October 09, 2012, 09:16:44 AM
So very sorry to hear that Denny.

Likewise.  This is a very bad thing for the people of the world and a really really bad thing for the people of Venezuela.

I wonder what to think of exit polls that showed Capriles leading narrowly.  I would think exit polls understate his support.  I didn't notice if we sent Jimmy Carter again to 'certify' the vote.

Interesting is the idea that if/when there is a demise of Chavez that Capriles from the opposition could be the next leader instead of some hand picked successor.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on October 09, 2012, 09:41:06 AM
Quote
I wonder what to think of exit polls that showed Capriles leading narrowly.  I would think exit polls understate his support.  I didn't notice if we sent Jimmy Carter again to 'certify' the vote.


It should not be surprising because the vote is very polarized. Where I voted you can be sure it was 80% for Capriles. In other places surely it's 80% Chavez. In the US Republicans and Democrats might live side by side. Here adecos and copeyanos (people voting for the former two major parties) would also live side by side but not so for chavistas and anti-chavistas although the chavistas who have enriched themselves are moving out of the barrios and into the upscale neighborhoods.

I visited my beach condo two weeks ago. It's full of chavistas. I was told that the apartment sold to the local mayor fetched more than the owner thought she would get. Prices are back up to US$1,000 a square meter. They had been as low as $375 around 2004. Nothing has changed, only we have new "Amos del Valle."

If Jimmy Carter came likely he would be lynched -  the weasel. As far as I know there were no foreign observers, for all the good they did in the past, I certainly didn't miss them.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: The Death Watch Continues
Post by: captainccs on January 04, 2013, 01:38:03 AM
Yesterday I was struck by the headline: "The Post Chavez Era Is Here." In our highly regulated news industry, papers are not allowed to print what the government does not want people to see. If this headline was allowed it must mean that the government wants the people to get ready for a transition. Maduro, the bus driver turned vice president, has said that Chavez's condition was delicate. There are only six days to go to Chavez's inauguration. There has been talk about inaugurating Chavez on his sick bed in Havana, a truly preposterous idea but inline with Chavista opportunism.

This arrived by email:

Quote
Venezuela: Chavez In Coma - Report
January 2, 2013 | 0049 GMT

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's health continued to deteriorate Jan. 1, Colombia's Caracol Radio reported, citing a report from Spanish newspaper ABC. The report said Chavez is in a medically induced coma with weak vitals and that a biopsy during a Dec. 11 operation to extract 43.1 centimeters of his small intestine that left him unable to ingest solid food revealed cancerous cells in his intestinal wall and bladder. The report also said Chavez's cancer had spread to his spinal cord, the treatment of which requires a bone marrow transplant that he is unable to undergo because of respiratory complications.

Comments? Send them to responses@stratfor.com

http://us4.campaign-archive2.com/?u=74786417f9554984d314d06bd&id=9abafcf8af&e=90672325cd
Title: The Death Watch Continues
Post by: captainccs on January 04, 2013, 01:48:12 AM
Spanish Newspaper Says Hugo Chávez Is In A Coma And On Life Support
Matthew Boesler    | Jan. 2, 2013, 10:58 AM | 3,177 | 8

Sources told Spanish newspaper ABC that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez is in an induced coma and being kept alive on life support in a Cuban hospital following emergency cancer surgery on December 10.

UPI has more details from the report:

Sources told ABC Chávez was breathing through mechanical ventilation and being fed intravenously and rectally, and Russian doctors treating him said his kidneys were failing.

The doctors were considering ending the life support, the newspaper said.

However, Venezuelan Vice President Nicolás Maduro denied the report, saying that Chávez was in a conscious state.

Chávez recently named Maduro as his chosen successor should he be unable to serve his third term as president following his re-election in October. While Chávez has battled cancer for a while now, never has he taken the step of naming a successor, making the announcement significant.

Chávez is well known for his socialist government and economic policies. Investors have bid up both Venezuelan stocks and bonds this year (Venezuela was the world's best performing stock market in 2012) on hopes that the end of Chávez's rule in Venezuela will mean an end to those socialist policies and usher in a more business-friendly government.

Today, yields on Venezuelan government bonds are falling toward multi-year lows. The move reverses a climb upward in recent weeks after the Venezuelan government downplayed fears that Chávez's December 10 surgery didn't go well.

The yield on the Venezuelan 15-year government bond has fallen 40 basis points today.

Torino Capital CEO Jorge Piedrahita told Bloomberg News, "There is a clear correlation between the price of Venezuela’s debt and Chávez's health."

Today's report from ABC cites anonymous sources inside the hospital. Although it's been refuted by Maduro, it appears as if it's been enough to re-ignite investor speculation.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/report-chavez-in-coma-on-life-support-2013-1#ixzz2GzxNvsUO
Title: Re: Venezuela - new election by Feb. 10?
Post by: DougMacG on January 04, 2013, 10:01:57 AM
If coma reports reports are true, then?

The constitution says Chávez, who in October won re-election to a new six-year term, is supposed to be sworn in a week from today, on Jan. 10. But his condition would appear to preclude that happening. So here’s what Article 233 says:

"When an elected President becomes permanently unavailable to serve prior to his inauguration, a new election … shall be held within 30 consecutive days.”

http://world.time.com/2013/01/03/hugo-chavezs-constitution-is-a-muddled-map-out-of-venezuelas-crisis/#ixzz2H1wp6xrq
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 04, 2013, 10:20:51 AM
Quote
"When an elected President becomes permanently unavailable to serve prior to his inauguration, a new election … shall be held within 30 consecutive days.”


That is the crux of the matter. If Chavez can be sworn in Maduro becomes president. If not, chavistas have a good chance of losing the presidency. We fear that chavismo will go to any trickery to get Chavez sworn in, dead or alive.

Six days to go.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: The DIRTY TRICKS Continue
Post by: captainccs on January 05, 2013, 04:19:47 AM
The chavista Venezuelan Supreme Court is not an independent body. The court is populated with Chavez pupets and it acts like a rubber stamp. Now Maduro wants to use the rubber stamp to delay the swearing in of the president which it totally illegal.

I never doubted the dirty tricks were coming, the only unknown was the form they would take.


Chavez swearing-in can be delayed: Venezuelan VP

By Andrew Cawthorne and Deisy Buitrago | Reuters – 9 hrs ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - President Hugo Chavez's formal swearing-in for a new six-year term scheduled for January 10 can be postponed if he is unable to attend due to his battle to recover from cancer surgery, Venezuela's vice president said on Friday.

Nicolas Maduro's comments were the clearest indication yet that the Venezuelan government is preparing to delay the swearing-in while avoiding naming a replacement for Chavez or calling a new election in the South American OPEC nation.

In power since 1999, the 58-year-old socialist leader has not been seen in public for more than three weeks. Allies say he is in delicate condition after a fourth operation in two years for an undisclosed form of cancer in his pelvic area.

The political opposition argues that Chavez's presence on January 10 in Cuba - where there are rumors he may be dying - is tantamount to the president's stepping down.

But Maduro, waving a copy of the constitution during an interview with state TV, said there was no problem if Chavez was sworn in at a later date by the nation's top court.

"The interpretation being given is that the 2013-2019 constitutional period starts on January 10. In the case of President Chavez, he is a re-elected president and continues in his functions," he said.

"The formality of his swearing-in can be resolved in the Supreme Court at the time the court deems appropriate in coordination with the head of state."

In the increasing "Kremlinology"-style analysis of Venezuela's extraordinary political situation, that could be interpreted in different ways: that Maduro and other allies trust Chavez will recover eventually, or that they are buying time to cement succession plans before going into an election.

Despite his serious medical condition, there was no reason to declare Chavez's "complete absence" from office, Maduro said. Such a declaration would trigger a new vote within 30 days, according to Venezuela's charter.

RECOVERY POSSIBLE?

Chavez was conscious and fighting to recover, said Maduro, who traveled to Havana to see his boss this week.

"We will have the Commander well again," he said.

Maduro, 50, whom Chavez named as his preferred successor should he be forced to leave office, said Venezuela's opposition had no right to go against the will of the people as expressed in the October 7 vote to re-elect the president.

"The president right now is president ... Don't mess with the people. Respect democracy."

Despite insisting Chavez remains president and there is hope for recovery, the government has acknowledged the gravity of his condition, saying he is having trouble breathing due to a "severe" respiratory infection.

Social networks are abuzz with rumors he is on life support or facing uncontrollable metastasis of his cancer.

Chavez's abrupt exit from the political scene would be a huge shock for Venezuela. His oil-financed socialism has made him a hero to the poor, while critics call him a dictator seeking to impose Cuban-style communism on Venezuelans.

Should Chavez leave office, a new election is likely to pitch former bus driver and union activist Maduro against opposition leader Henrique Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state.

Capriles lost to Chavez in the October presidential election, but won an impressive 44 percent of the vote. Though past polls have shown him to be more popular than all of Chavez's allies, the equation is now different given Maduro has received the president's personal blessing - a factor likely to fire up Chavez's fanatical supporters.

His condition is being watched closely by Latin American allies that have benefited from his help, as well as investors attracted by Venezuela's lucrative and widely traded debt.

"The odds are growing that the country will soon undergo a possibly tumultuous transition," the U.S.-based think tank Stratfor said this week.

(Additional reporting by Marianna Parraga; editing by Christopher Wilson)

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-vp-says-chavez-swearing-delayed-011654991.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 05, 2013, 10:28:18 AM
Chavez cronies addressing the inauguration question make the coma rumor look true.  I know nothing but it seems to me that cancer in the very late stages is a one way street.  The one saying otherwise is VP Maduro, as his one big shot at the Presidency may be slipping away.  "Chavez was conscious and fighting to recover", said Maduro.  If so, then what is the question about inauguration on schedule as required?

I would hope the opposition start right in with their campaign on Jan. 11 no matter what 'ruling' comes down.
Title: Chavez's Health and Schrodinger's Cat
Post by: captainccs on January 07, 2013, 09:32:31 AM
Received by email

Chavez's Health and Schrodinger's Cat

It is not often that we get to discuss quantum mechanics in relation to Venezuela, although my colleague Miguel does have a PhD from Harvard in physics, so over the years sitting on a trading desk next to each other you get to speak about almost everything as the days roll on.  (By the way, did you know that Venezuela had an experimental nuclear reactor -- the first in Latin America -- fifty years ago?  That came to light in one of our riffs back in 2008 when Venezuela President Hugo Chavez was promising to build a nuclear reactor with Russia in oil-rich Zulia state.
 http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=320618 ) 
 
But I could have never foreseen that we would be able to allude to Austrian physicist Erwin Schrodinger in this missive.  Yet, Chavez has become Schrodinger's cat.  In that theoretical experiment (for you cat-lovers out there, no actual cats were injured), a cat is in a sealed box and may be alive or dead. Or both, in theoretical quantum mechanics.  Likewise, we don't know if Chavez is alive or dead. Some reports say Chavez is basically in a coma or being kept alive on life support. The government keeps saying that his situation is 'delicate' and that he will return 'sooner rather than later.' But the fact is that we have neither seen nor heard from Chavez in almost four weeks since December 10 and we don't know what his real situation is.  Nobody is letting us see inside the box in Cuba and everyone (including Chavez) is lying or obfuscating the truth.  And yet, people are trying to continue to rule in his name, even bending the Constitution to allow them to stay in power after the Constitutional term ends.  And worse, because Chavismo controls the legislature, the courts and all the other governing institutions of the country, there is no place for the Opposition to go to resolve it.   As Opposition Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma put it "Our President has been kidnapped" and we don't even have a "proof of life." This could get messy.

Russ Dallen
Title: Chavismo Takes The Path Of Maximum Illegallity In Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 08, 2013, 05:27:43 PM
Why am I not surprised?

Chavismo Takes The Path Of Maximum Illegallity In Venezuela

January 8, 2013

Chavismo and the Venezuelan National Assembly have today decided to follow the path of maximum illegality when they announced that Hugo Chávez will not show up on Thursday and will be sworn in a some time in the future by the Venezuela Supreme Court. At the same time, the National Assembly approved that President Chávez can take an unlimited leave of absence, something that it is unconstitutional and illegal.

The whole show is a bizarre and unnecessary twist to the problem of what to do with Chávez’ inability to be sworn in due to his illness, as this is simply a break with the laws and the Constitution that is likely to have repercussions beyond what Chavismo apparently believes.

The whole sequence of events is bizarre to say the least:

-It all starts by a letter by Vice-President Maduro, the person with the largest conflict of interest in all this, as his tenure as Vice-President clearly ends on Jan. 10th. with Chávez’ six year term. Moreover, there is not even the pretense of having Chávez sign the letter. If Chávez is doing better and will be able to be sworn in sometime soon, why didn’t he even sign the letter? Maduro clearly has no legal right to make this request for the Venezuelan President.

-As if this was not enough the National Assembly approves a spurious resolution, giving Chávez an unlimited leave and without even following what the law requires for a President, which is a medical committee giving an opinion and the Assembly approving the recommendation of such a committee. Only the Supreme Court could approve that you can extend to Art. 233 of the Constitution a President-elect, but under no circumstance could the Court or the Assembly grant Chávez an unlimited leave.

-In the case of a temporal absence, the Vice-President would become President, but since Chávez has not been sworn in, it is absolutely unconstitutional for current Vice-President Nicolás Maduro to extend his Vice-Presidency into the next term. Since Chávez has not been sworn in yet, and it Maduro says he will not be for a while, then the only legal solution is for the President of the National Assembly to become President until the situation is resolved with the approval of the Venezuelan Supreme Court (Which may still happen before Jan. 10th.)

What is scary about this whole situation is that if it does extend into Jan. 10th. Chavismo (And not Chávez! We do not know his opinion!) will be taking the country on a path of piling up one illegality on top of the other. This could take years to unravel, as someone has to run the country, but all decisions after Jan. 10th. will lack any legality and could be challenged some day. This could have dire consequences for the stability of the country medium and long term. Moreover, once someone decides to bypass the Constitution, all sorts of demons are unleashed among all of those aspiring for power.

I wonder if those demons are what is already causing these bizarre situation.

The question remains why this path has been chosen. Either Chavismo does not want or does not trust Diosdado Cabello as President or Chavismo (and the Cubans) have decided to turn the country into a Dictatorship, the Constitution be damned. The question is in the former case is why would Diosdado follow Maduro on this?

And as one analyst asked me yesterday: Will these guys even hold elections if Chávez dies?

You have to start wondering…

For the last few days, I have believed that a Constitutional crisis would be avoided when push came to shove. Right now, I can only sit here and hope that the Supreme Court will say something tomorrow, before Venezuela is taken into an unknown path packed with instability.

After Jan. 10th. anyone that sides with Chavismo and this foolishness will be on the side of illegality and and a coup. Remarkably, not one person on the Chavismo side has yet raised a voice of concern.

They have less than two days to speak up or side with those breaking with Venezuela’s Constitution.

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/01/08/chavismo-takes-the-path-of-maximum-illegallity-in-venezuela/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 08, 2013, 06:40:05 PM
Denny S. post already states this but CNN also reporting Chavez will not be coming to inauguration.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/08/world/americas/venezuela-chavez/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Looks to me like it is all over midnight Thursday and the 30 day campaign begins.
-----------

IBD opins, among others regarding Chavez and the Cuban cancer treatments, that "it didn't have to happen this way."  The cancer may have been treatable at the Sirio-Libanese Hospital in Sao Paulo in Brazil.  (Chavez could have swallowed his socialist, anti-American pride and visited the Mayo clinic where other world leaders go.)
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/010713-639640-castrocare-in-cuba-responsible-for-chavez-demise.htm
Hugo Chavez Hit By Cuba's Surgical Strike
Title: Re: Venezuela - Inauguration Day Came and Went without Chavez
Post by: DougMacG on January 11, 2013, 10:00:25 AM
Looking forward to our reports from Denny S.

"But in a telling sign of the severity of his illness, Mr. Chávez apparently sent no greeting to the crowds wishing him well. There was no message from him read to the tens of thousands of followers who attended the rally in front of the presidential palace. There was no video or recording from the once-omnipresent president, who has not been seen or heard from directly in a month.  There was not even any mention that Mr. Chávez might be watching the televised broadcast of the huge get-well rally held in his honor."  http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/world/americas/a-celebration-that-accentuated-chavezs-absence.html

They had their celebration anyway - with a cardboard cutout of Chavez.

NY Times continued: "On Wednesday the Supreme Court ruled that Mr. Chávez could be sworn in at a later date — but set no time limit." ...  "The opposition has called for a team of medical experts to go to Havana to evaluate his condition."

Venezuela does not have a President, the old term is over and the new term didn't start.  The constitution requires a new election in less than a month.  Both sides should get busy with their campaigns. 
Title: Russ Dallen on Venezuelan Supreme Court decision
Post by: captainccs on January 14, 2013, 08:14:55 AM
Received via email:


Good morning from Washington, D.C.  I have attached our latest BBO Report on Venezuela in which we take a look at the Venezuela Supreme Court's decision last week to interpret the Constitution to allow President Hugo Chavez to take the oath of office at a "later time and place" by being sworn in before the Supreme Court using the innovative new legal theory they introduced of "continuity."
 
I was fascinated to see that the Venezuelan Supreme Court reached all the way back to the one example in US history where a US Vice President was sworn in on foreign soil -- late and in Cuba, at that!
 
In 1852, Franklin Pierce had won the presidency and was sworn in on March 4, 1853, but his Vice President, Alabama Senator William R. King had developed tuberculosis (TB) and was in Cuba for the winter to get the warm air on his lungs to ease his symptoms.  TB was usually a death sentence in those days and he missed the presidential inauguration and in sympathy, his friends in Congress passed a law allowing him to be sworn in as Vice President from Cuba so that he might die with that title, and on March 24, 1853, 20 days late and on foreign soil, he took the oath of office.  Most ominously for Chavez, King returned to the US and died a few weeks later on April 18,1953.  Interestingly -- and confirming FDR Vice President John Nance Garner's comment that "the vice presidency is not worth a pitcher of warm spit" -- Pierce never filled the Vice President position for the rest of his term.
 
Of course, inaugurations took place later in the calendar in the 1800s, but Washington is all spiffed up and getting ready for Barack Obama's second inauguration on January 20.  In the spirit, I finally got to see Steven Spielberg's/Daniel Day Lewis's "Lincoln" at the movies.  Brilliant movie and you can see why it has 12 Academy Award nominations -- and why it is the first time Hollywood has voted for a Republican President in a long time!
                                                                                                                                                   
I am in D.C. because I, along with former US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro, former Senior
Advisor to the White House Special Envoy for the Americas Eric Farnsworth, and Chris Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief of the Americas Quarterly, will be speaking about Venezuela and our predictions and prognosis for what will happen there at the Carnegie Endowment today at 11 here in Washington, D.C.  You can watch the session on C-Span on your TV or online here: http://www.as-coa.org/events/venezuelas-uncertain-future
 
As always, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance.

                                                                                                                     -Russ
Title: Venezuelans wonder how long they can go without a president
Post by: captainccs on January 15, 2013, 07:52:51 AM
If the president is Hugo I can do without him for ever.  :-D

Venezuelans wonder how long they can go without a president 

President Hugo Chávez is in power but incommunicado and the Supreme Court says he can stay that way indefinitely. But how long can Venezuela go on without a president?

BY JIM WYSS
JWYSS@MIAMIHERALD.COM

CARACAS -- Huddled in a doorway outside the pink and red presidential palace, Alexis León said he has faith that its tenant, ailing President Hugo Chávez, will be home soon.

Government officials insist that Chávez is alert and speaking to his family as he recovers from cancer surgery in Cuba. But in Caracas — where he hasn’t been seen or heard from in more than a month — there’s little to do but worry and wait.

“If he was my family member, I would also keep him from making any public appearances until he was completely recovered — anything for his health,” said León, 51, a theater professor. “He’ll be back; we just have to give him time.”

But many wonder how long Latin America’s fourth-largest economy can function with its leader in absentia and incommunicado.

On Monday, the coalition of opposition parties, known by its Spanish acronym MUD, released letters sent to the Organization of American States and the Mercosur trade group asking them to weigh in on what they see as a violation of the constitution that could “affect the stability of the region.” The coalition also asked to make its case before the permanent council of the OAS.

Despite Chávez’s frail health, the Supreme Court insists he is still in charge. That means that Vice President Nicolás Maduro does not have the power to appoint ambassadors or cabinet members or sign international treaties, legal experts said.

“How long do we have to wait for the president?” asked Miriam Berdugo de Montilla, an opposition lawmaker. “Who can tell us where the president is? What condition is he in? Where are they keeping him? Nobody really knows.”

The government says Chávez is in Havana being treated by an international team of experts for an undisclosed form of cancer that he’s been battling since at least June 2011. On Sunday, officials said he was alert and reacting “favorably” to treatment for a severe respiratory infection that has plagued his recovery.

But there are reasons for concern. Last week, Chávez purportedly sent a letter to congress asking for permission to miss his Jan. 10 inauguration. But the letter was signed by Maduro, not the president. And when tens of thousands of Chávez followers crammed downtown Caracas to mark his new six-year term, there were no recorded messages from Havana, as many were hoping.

“Imagine President Barack Obama not being touch, not even a picture or proof of life for 35 days,” Russ Dallen, a Caracas-based investor and journalist told a panel in Washington, D.C. on Monday. “It’s an amazing, amazing scenario.”

To complicate matters, the Supreme Court has turned down requests to send a medical team to Havana, and no doctors or independent observers have commented on his status. When a Brazilian diplomat visited earlier this month he called the president’s condition “grave,” but provided no details. Argentina’s Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Bolivia’s Evo Morales have also been recent visitors, but have remained mum about his condition.

The fact that the only people talking about the president’s health have a vested interest is suspicious, said Nelson Madrid, a 59-year-old music teacher who has lost confidence in the government reports.

“We need to hear from our president,” he said. “I really don’t know what’s going to happen we just have to hope it’s not bad.”

If Chávez were to die or step down, it should trigger new elections within 30 days. Before he traveled to Cuba, the president asked the nation to rally behind Vice President Maduro if he were sidelined by the illness. That would likely pit Maduro — a long time foreign minister — against Miranda Gov. Henrique Capriles, who lost to Chávez in October.

But none of the president’s followers have openly acknowledged life after Chávez. And the Supreme Court ruling presumes not only that he’s in charge but will return to be sworn in.

The opposition argues that Chávez’s absence on inauguration day required the president to be declared temporarily absent and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, also another Chávez loyalist, to take charge until the president returns.

“The most troublesome part is that the [Supreme Court] has, astonishingly, declared President Chávez is not absent and is in full control of his functions even though he’s been out of the country for more than a month and not even in condition to sign an official communiqué,” the MUD wrote to Mercosur, the influential trade group, which Venezuela joined in July.

For its part, the administration has called the Supreme Court decision a victory for democracy in a nation that overwhelmingly supported Chávez in the Oct. 7 presidential race.

The ruling has left the opposition with little room for legal maneuvering, but they have called for a peaceful march on Jan. 23 in defense of the constitution.

The government seems prepared for a showdown. Shortly after the protest was announced, Maduro called on security forces to be vigilant and shutdown opposition attempts to instigate violence.

“They’re trying to stain our politics and the victories this nation is conquering every day,” Maduro said of the protest.

For the moment, the constitutional debate has caused few international ripples. More than 20 international delegations were in Venezuela last week to mark Chávez’s new six-year term. And the Organization of American States and the U.S. State Department, among others, have said they respect the high court’s ruling.

But the longer the president is absent, the less tenable the situation will be, said Gregorio Gaterol, an opposition lawmaker.

“This Supreme Court sentence is a straightjacket for the opposition,” he said. “But over time, they’re going to get tied up in this decision also.”

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/01/14/v-fullstory/3182668/venezuelans-wonder-how-long-they.html
Title: Council of the Americas roundtable on Venezuela's choices
Post by: captainccs on January 15, 2013, 09:56:56 AM
The Council of the Americas hosted a roundtable discussion on Venezuela's choices as it faces a potential political transition.

Experts on the country discussed the uncertainty created by the potential transition, the prospects for change, the implications for Venezuela’s economy and how the U.S. and other countries will respond.

Participants included:
 •Charles Shapiro, President, Institute of the Americas, former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela
 •Russell Dallen, President and Editor-in-Chief, Latin American Herald Tribune, Caracas
 •Christopher Sabatini, Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly and Senior Director of Policy, Americas Society/Council of the Americas
 •Eric Farnsworth, Vice President, Americas Society/Council of the Americas
 
You can watch the High-Def C-Span feed, which they carried live, here:
 http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/FutureofVene

Or the Council of the Americas Website stream here
(skip the first 16 minutes, just the backs of the heads of the audience):
http://www.as-coa.org/events/venezuelas-uncertain-future

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 15, 2013, 11:44:10 AM
Ambassador Charles Shapiro hit the bulls-eye when he said (in reply to Gustavo Coronel) that it must be the Venezuelans who solve their political issues. I agree entirely but people are not really interested in ideology, the interest is in making a living. As we say "redondear la arepa." The way to weaken the government is by dropping the price of oil but this hurts the people as much as it hurts the regime.

All in all I would give the panel high marks.

Denny Schlesinger

 
Title: Stratfor: Venezuela food shortages
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 22, 2013, 08:52:13 AM







Text Size
 













Summary
 


LEO RAMIREZ/AFP/Getty Images
 
Posters of food prices in Caracas
 


Venezuela's worsening food shortages should be manageable through raising fixed prices on goods and decreasing the value of the country's currency, but these efforts will likely lead to more political pressure on the new government. Overall scarcity has reportedly reached its highest level in four years and comes at a time when President Hugo Chavez may be near death and uncertainty surrounds the next government. If the economy deteriorates, the public's support for the Venezuelan government is likely to do the same.
 


Analysis
 
According to the Venezuelan Central Bank, the overall scarcity index in Venezuela -- which relies on regular checks of store shelves to document when stores run out of basic goods, such as corn flour and cooking oil -- was reportedly 16.3 percent in December 2012. The actual scarcity index in December 2012 may have been as high as 20 percent, according to statements by the chief of Datanalysis, a reputable but opposition-oriented economic analysis firm. The average rate of scarcity between 2007 and 2012 was 14.2 percent. The worst scarcities were recorded in January 2008, when the scarcity index registered 24.7 percent. For comparison, during the period before Chavez's rule, from 1994 to 1999 the scarcity index averaged 4.34 percent.
 
Traffic disruptions may be responsible for some of the recent shortages. According to transportation groups, potholes in roads and other infrastructure deterioration have lengthened the amount of time it takes to transport goods to the degree that what had previously been one-day trips now take two or three. These traffic problems have been exacerbated by a decree in October that barred heavy trucking on holidays (including around the elections) and on weekends. The decree has been lifted, so this aspect may begin to improve. Public holidays may also have led to decreased production at state companies responsible for food products.
 
However, these logistical challenges are not likely to provide a full explanation for the shortages. For one thing, shortages have primarily affected the products that have the strongest price controls, like chicken, milk, sugar, flour and cooking oils. A few factors contribute to these shortages. First, stores may not be able to afford to sell at regulated prices if input costs experience inflationary pressure, which would increase costs for the store. Indeed, according to Venezuela's Central Bank, the price of agricultural products in Venezuela rose 35 percent in 2012, and farmers report that transportation and fertilizer costs have increased and can be difficult to secure. Rising input costs for price-controlled goods reduce profit margins, which could force producers to go out of business. Shortages caused by this process will prod the government to raise fixed prices once again, but continued inflationary pressure will shrink profit margins on goods even with the new price.
 
The second factor contributing to shortages is that people likely are moving goods out of the government-regulated market into black-market sales to get a better price. Though it is difficult to verify the degree to which this is occurring, the government has accused people of hoarding food to manipulate the market. Two such incidents have occurred in the past several days, including the seizure of 900 metric tons of powdered milk, announced by Venezuela's Bolivarian National Guard on Jan. 11. In an earlier case, Venezuelan officials arrested four employees of transportation and logistics firm TBC in the El Soco Industrial Zone in La Victoria, Aragua state, on charges of hoarding about 8,900 metric tons of refined sugar. TBC and PepsiCo Inc. protested the move, claiming that the sugar was legally imported in accordance with the processes of the central bank for the purpose of making soda. In total, the government claims to have confiscated 46 metric tons of foodstuffs in recent weeks that were stored for more than a week.
 






.
 

Scarcities are exacerbated by an active black market, particularly on Venezuela's border. The controlled prices in Venezuela are as low as one-third of the price of basic staples in Colombia. As a result, Colombians living along the border with Venezuela frequently travel over the border to buy cheaper -- and in many cases subsidized -- goods. This has long been true for gasoline, which is sold at far below the cost of production throughout Venezuela. It is also true for basic foodstuffs, and the additional demand cannot help but place additional strain on supplies. To the extent that Venezuelan producers are government-subsidized, this is also a drain on public resources. Nevertheless, cross-border purchases have a limited impact. The border of Venezuela and Colombia is lightly populated, and the bulk of the populations in both countries live farther into the interior. This distance and the difficulties associated with traveling in the Colombian countryside naturally limit the black- and gray-market exchanges between Colombia and Venezuela.
 
Perhaps the biggest challenges, and those most likely to affect Venezuela's economic stability in the long term, are issues associated with the country's import-export systems and the availability of hard currencies to the private sector. The application process for importing anything into Venezuela is inefficient, and companies frequently report delays in processing that disrupt commerce. In the final quarter of 2012, delays in licensing caused three bulk maritime shipments of wheat to sit at the dock in Puerto Cabello, resulting in wheat shortages, according to a report from Venezuelan newspaper El Universal. This is a case where, like in the hoarding instances mentioned above, the long-term storage of foodstuffs can flood the market once released. In some cases, food spoils because of these delays.
 
Imports are also limited by dollar availability, which is strictly controlled by the branch of the Venezuelan Central Bank that controls currency exchange. The central bank must be careful about its allocation of dollar reserves, since the bank is also responsible for financing a range of government activities, from transferring bulk funds to government slush funds like Fonden, or directly financing struggling state-owned industries.
 
Because the unofficial value of Venezuela's currency, the bolivar, has fallen to near 20 bolivares per U.S. dollar over the past two months and the central bank needs to hold the official exchange rate around 4-to-1, there is huge pressure on the central bank to devalue the official rate of the bolivar. Doing so would also relieve pressure on Venezuela's $29 billion in foreign exchange reserves, which would immediately cause inflation, forcing the Venezuelan population to accept a lower purchasing power for imports of consumable goods. This would surely have negative political consequences, but it would not be the first time Venezuela has had to devalue its currency. The government can be expected to react in other ways as well. Seizures of productive facilities cannot be ruled out, and the government may attempt to exert greater control over imports, as it has attempted to do previously.
 
Ultimately, as long as oil prices are high, Venezuela's macroeconomic picture will remain relatively stable. The political management of oil flows and the management of an increasingly state-dominated economy will be the test for a post-Chavez government. Changes such as exchange rate shifts that were made under Chavez's leadership may be more difficult without him present. From Vice President Nicolas Maduro's perspective, these difficult economic choices add to concerns about an erosion of support from the Venezuelan armed forces, government and populace. Chavez commanded the loyalty of all these groups, but a new government not led by the ailing Venezuelan president may lose public confidence if the economy continues to deteriorate.
 
Editor's Note: An earlier version of this report misstated the time frame for the rate of scarcity.
.

Title: Re: Venezuela - Chavez statement??
Post by: DougMacG on January 29, 2013, 11:40:38 AM
Odd story:  Chavez allegedly released a statement to a international summit meeting in Chile yesterday.  Odd that he has not communicated to his own country yet and odd that the only person saying he is well and coming back and now providing and reading his alleged statement is the VP who would become President if Chavez ever gets inaugurated and has to step down.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47b3b854-6973-11e2-9246-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JLEhWLdU

"Chávez calls for Latin American unity"
Title: Re: Venezuela - Chavez statement??
Post by: G M on January 29, 2013, 03:38:15 PM
Odd story:  Chavez allegedly released a statement to a international summit meeting in Chile yesterday.  Odd that he has not communicated to his own country yet and odd that the only person saying he is well and coming back and now providing and reading his alleged statement is the VP who would become President if Chavez ever gets inaugurated and has to step down.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47b3b854-6973-11e2-9246-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JLEhWLdU

"Chávez calls for Latin American unity"

How do you say "Weekend at Hugo's" in Spanish?
Title: Stratfor: Venezuela begins controversial economic reforms
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 03, 2013, 06:52:02 AM
Venezuela Begins Its Controversial Economic Reforms
January 31, 2013 | 1130 GMT

Summary
 


With Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez out of the country to receive medical treatment, Vice President Nicolas Maduro is leading the Venezuelan government's push to implement critical and overdue economic reforms. The government plans to address a number of challenges, including adjusting the currency exchange system, boosting the government's oil revenue and possibly even raising fuel prices, a maneuver that has led to massive unrest in the past. If mismanaged, the reforms could destabilize the country, but Caracas believes it must act now to keep the economy from deteriorating further.
 


Analysis
 
Uncertainty has surrounded Venezuela's leadership since Chavez arrived in Cuba on Dec. 11 for treatment after his cancer came back. Despite concerns that infighting among Chavez's inner circle might weaken the government in Chavez's absence, a team of ministers including National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello and Foreign Minister Elias Jaua appears to have overcome internal differences for now. A series of events in recent days and weeks has underlined the ministers' determination to deal with a number of economic problems that the government has long acknowledged but felt were not politically feasible to tackle until after the Oct. 7 elections.
 
Economic Troubles
 
Food shortages have hit the capital and a shortage in dollars has sent the parallel (gray market) exchange rate to new lows. The Venezuelan government's levels of subsidization, which were already high, grew steadily throughout 2012 as the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela campaigned for Chavez's reelection. These expenditures -- many of which are directly controlled by Venezuelan state energy company Petroleos de Venezuela -- have strained government resources, sending international borrowing up throughout the year. Although these fiscal expenditures reportedly declined in the wake of the October election, the government still has a serious cash flow problem despite high oil revenues.
 
The biggest immediate problem is pressure on the reserves at the Venezuelan Central Bank. The bank is struggling to meet demand for foreign currency while simultaneously transferring billions of dollars to the state's general fund. Changes made this week to laws regulating how Petroleos de Venezuela transfers windfall oil revenues to the government will see the Central Bank receive an additional $2.47 billion in 2013, and government officials are using that influx of cash to assure Venezuelans that dollars will soon become more available to facilitate the import of a range of basic consumer goods.
 
The move comes amid a national debate about the possible devaluation of the country's currency. The parallel market in Venezuela is selling dollars for 18-20 bolivars. The low value on the parallel market drives up demand for dollars at the cheaper official rate of 4.3 bolivars to the dollar and makes it imperative for the Central Bank to release only limited amounts of foreign currency to avoid draining its reserves. If the additional funds do not satisfy this demand, the government may have no choice in the near term but to devalue the bolivar.
 
Venezuelan Economy and Finance Minister Jorge Giordani has publicly opposed devaluation out of fears that it could increase inflation, the official rate of which decreased to around 20 percent in 2012 but has run as high as 30 percent in previous years. In addition to increasing the amount of revenue it hopes to pull from the energy sector, the government might require gold mining companies to sell gold to the government, according to reports from Venezuelan newspaper El Nacional on Jan. 28. On that same day, Ramirez announced the opening of three additional gold blocs for exploration.
 
Perhaps most startling is a report from the website Runrun.es, which frequently reports leaked information from the regime's inner circle, alleging that the government is concerned enough about the country's economic situation to seriously consider raising the domestic price of gasoline. With enormous pressure on Petroleos de Venezuela to subsidize government economic activities, it makes a great deal of financial sense to raise the price of gasoline. Petroleos de Venezuela has a limited ability to absorb the costs associated with a very low domestic price of gasoline, which is sold for around 2 U.S. cents per liter. While a reasonable option in financial terms, the move could pose serious political challenges.
 
The State Oil Company's Role
 
For better or worse, Petroleos de Venezuela plays a pivotal role in the Venezuelan economy. Since the early 20th century, when commercial exploitation of Venezuelan oil began, the oil sector has absorbed nearly all investment into the country. Likewise, government revenue has depended on the national oil company, which has over the past century experimented with a variety of ways to manage the resource. The belief that the country's oil wealth should be spread among its citizens is widespread in Venezuela. That sentiment has for decades driven populist policies, including austere price controls on refined petroleum fuels.
 
Some small adjustments to the price of gasoline have occurred over the years, most recently in 2000. The most significant attempt to raise the price of gasoline came in 1989, at the end of a decade of economic turmoil and at a point when the government could no longer afford to absorb the cost of subsidizing fuels. In one of his first acts as president, Carlos Andres Perez announced an austerity package created in partnership with the International Monetary Fund. The changes included drastic reductions in state subsidies on a range of goods, including transportation and most notably fuel. Further changes included currency devaluation and raising interest rates to 35 percent.
 
The changes were deemed necessary because, under the leadership of Perez's predecessor, Jaime Lusinchi, social spending policies had drained government coffers and eroded the oil industry's ability to subsidize the country. The elimination of fuel and other subsidies sparked riots that lasted several days, left several hundred people dead and injured thousands. Known as the "Caracazo," the Caracas riots of 1989 left a lasting impression on the Venezuelan public and continue to serve as a warning to Venezuelan politicians regarding the potential costs of unpopular economic choices.
 
The situation leading up to the 1989 reforms was not terribly different from the challenges facing the Venezuelan government today. In this context, any report that Venezuela's top leadership might seriously consider raising gasoline prices is notable. But today's politicians know how real the possibility of violence is. Consequently, if the government is indeed serious in considering these reforms, any major cuts in spending or changes in the subsidization of fuel and other basic goods will be done in a gradual and targeted manner.
 
Chavez is reportedly recovering, but his role in governing is unclear and likely limited. Still, the Maduro-led government will be able to use the ailing president, even in absentia, to minimize public opposition to these gradual changes. Venezuela is already dealing with significant food shortages and deteriorating infrastructure, and the risk of domestic unrest should not be underestimated. Some sort of leadership transition over the course of the next year still appears likely, and Maduro and his allies, in order to use Chavez's popularity to support the moves, will try to enact these economic reforms before Chavez is removed from the political stage.
 
The current changes under way demonstrate the Venezuelan government's belief that it can secure additional resources. Its options also include foreign direct investment or loans from friendly countries like China and Russia. Indeed, Caracas announced Jan. 30 that Russian oil firm Rosneft will invest $10 billion over eight years in Venezuela's Junin 6 oil block, where Rosneft will take the lead in a consortium, partnering with PDVSA. But relying on foreign direct investment and on the potential for future increases in oil and gold income is a long-term strategy. In the meantime, the government will likely be pushed to make changes to currency exchange rates and boosting revenue within the next several months.
.

Read more: Venezuela Begins Its Controversial Economic Reforms | Stratfor
Title: Total apathy
Post by: captainccs on February 05, 2013, 04:05:43 AM
February 4 is the anniversary of the failed Chavista coup that left over 100 people dead. Yesterday, total apathy!

I was out running errands yesterday, February 4. Nobody gives a damn. Not about the coup, not about the revolution, not about Chavez, not about the opposition. Everyone is busy surviving. The revolutionary speeches blare from radios, I comment out loud that these were assassins. People smile and go about their business. The grocery store owner has time enough to say: “They will do anything to hang on to power” and turns to take care of the next customer.

Total apathy.


Nothing To Celebrate In Venezuela, Twenty One and Fourteen Years Later

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/02/04/nothing-to-celebrate-in-venezuela-twenty-one-and-fourteen-years-later/

Title: Venezuela Devalues Bolivar by 32% Amid Shortage of Dollars
Post by: captainccs on February 08, 2013, 02:16:30 PM
I have yet to see these Bloomberg news confirmed in the local press.

Last June the parallel exchange rate was around 9 per dollar. Today it is 20 per dollar. See: El Liberal Venezolano (http://www.liberal-venezolano.blogspot.com/)


Venezuela Devalues Bolivar by 32% Amid Shortage of Dollars

By Charlie Devereux & Jose Orozco - Feb 8, 2013 5:04 PM GMT-0430

Venezuela devalued its currency for the fifth time in nine years as ailing President Hugo Chavez seeks to narrow a widening fiscal gap and reduce a shortage of dollars in the economy.

The government will weaken the exchange rate by 32 percent to 6.3 bolivars per dollar, Finance Minister Jorge Giordani told reporters today in Caracas. Companies with operations in Venezuela, including Colgate-Palmolive Co., Avon Products Inc. and MercadoLibre Inc., fell on the announcement.

A spending spree that almost tripled the fiscal deficit last year helped Chavez, 58, win a third six-term term. The devaluation can help narrow the budget deficit by increasing the amount of bolivars the government receives from oil exports. Chavez ordered the move from Cuba, where he is recovering from a fourth cancer surgery, Giordani said.

“Any tackling of the massive economic distortions, even if far more is required, is positively viewed by markets,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, a strategist at Bulltick Capital Markets, said in an interview from Miami. “We expected more and more is indeed needed to correct fiscal imbalances and adjust economic distortions, but this is something and there may be more to come.”

Yields Fall

The yield on Venezuela’s dollar bonds maturing in 2027 fell 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage points, to 8.70 percent at 4:43 p.m. local time. Venezuelan bonds have returned 39 percent over the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBIG index.

While a weaker currency may fuel annual inflation of 22 percent, it may ease shortages of goods ranging from toilet paper to cars.

In the black market, the bolivar is trading at 18.4 per dollar, according to Lechuga Verde, a website that tracks the rate. Venezuelans use the unregulated credit market because the central bank doesn’t supply enough dollars at the official rates to meet demand.

Venezuela’s fiscal gap widened to 11 percent of gross domestic product last year from 4 percent in 2011, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The government will keep the currency at 4.3 per dollar for certain imports that were ordered before Jan. 15, he said. The new exchange rate will begin operating Feb. 13, central bank President Nelson Merentes said.

The central bank-administered currency market known as Sitme that traded at 5.3 bolivars per dollar will be eliminated, Merentes said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Charlie Devereux in Caracas at cdevereux3@bloomberg.net; Jose Orozco in Caracas at jorozco8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at asoliani@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-08/venezuela-devalues-currency-from-33-to-6-30-bolivars-per-dollar.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 08, 2013, 05:12:37 PM
A currency doing worse than the US$ is in trouble.

How is inauguration going?  No news for almost a month?
Title: Re: Venezuela - Chavez undergoing more treatments?
Post by: DougMacG on February 14, 2013, 01:22:34 PM
Still no public appearance of Hugo Chavez.  The updates come only from the VP.  Has anyone else heard from him?

Chavez undergoing "delicate" cancer treatment: Venezuela's vice president
Reuters

    Venezuelan Vice President Nicolas Maduro (C) and National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello (R) stand next to a painting of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez as they attend the commemoration of the 21st anniversary of Chavez's attempted cuop d'etat in Caracas February 4, 2013. REUTERS/Jorge SilvaView Photo

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is undergoing "complex" alternative treatments more than two months after having cancer surgery in Cuba, his vice president said on Wednesday.

The 58-year-old socialist leader has not been seen in public since he went to Havana for the operation on December 11, his fourth surgery for cancer in 18 months.

Vice President Nicolas Maduro did not give details of the alternative treatments the president was receiving. Chavez has never said what type of cancer he is suffering from, and critics accuse the government of excessive secrecy over his condition.

"Today our commander is undergoing alternative treatments ... they are complex and difficult treatments that must, at some point, end the cycle of his illness," Maduro said in comments on state TV.

The government, which rejects allegations it has not been transparent about Chavez's health, says he has completed a difficult post-operative period and has started a "new phase" of his recuperation. It has not given details of this new phase.

Any new vote in South America's top oil exporter would probably pit Maduro, Chavez's heir apparent, against Henrique Capriles, the 40-year-old governor of Miranda state, who lost to Chavez in last October's presidential election.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 14, 2013, 02:50:41 PM
The "alternative treatment" is likely to be embalming so he doesn't stink up the place too badly!
Title: Students Chain Themselves In Front Of Cuban Embassy In Caracas And Other Stories
Post by: captainccs on February 15, 2013, 05:54:04 AM
I was out and about the streets of Caracas for  good part of the day yesterday. If I hadn't read the news I would never have known that thing were that bad around here. There is a huge disconnect between the political activists and the ordinary people who just want to go about living their lives.

That is not to say things are "normal" [whatever normal might mean]. Recently there was a shortage of some of the drugs I use on  regular basis, metformin, the one controlling my type two diabetes, being a critical one. That does not mean I had run out of the drug. We know that with price controls shortages are the norm, not the exception, so we stockpile critical items: drugs, powdered milk, olive oil, rice, toilette paper. Some people stockpile frozen meat in industrial size freezers...

http://softwaretimes.com/files/el%20congelador.html

I could not get the slow release version, instead I was pleasantly surprise that the pharmacy bill came to only BsF 80.00 (US$3.65 at the parallel rate) for 50 days worth of metformin, 60 days worth of another drug and a jar of Tums (75 tablets). A closer look at the bill revealed:

Metformin (50 days): BsF.8.74 (US$0.40) -- about the price of 4 bananas
Allopurinol (60 days): BsF.13.52 (US$0.61) -- about the price of 3 heads of garlic
Tums (75 tablets): BsF.58.18 (US$2.65) -- probably more in line with US prices

I said above "pleasantly surprised" because the controlled release version of Metformin, which is not price regulated, would have cost closer to BsF. 200.00 (US$9.00), 23 times the price of the regulated drug.

This tinkering with prices kills any economy which is why socialist countries tend to suffer shortages. With us this is not a new Chavista phenomenon, it has been the norm ever since we had price controls.

Powdered milk, usually absent from grocery stores, is a case in point. Our cows don't seem to make enough milk and we import the powdered milk, not that you would know it from the tins which never mention any country other than Venezuela. The other day I saw a pile of 100 pound sacks of powdered milk from New Zealand in a delivery truck. I asked where they were delivering the milk. They replied that it was charcoal. It seems the sacks get recycled, good show! But the powdered milk is imported, nonetheless.

BTW, Miguel, the author of the following article, is safely in Miami. He used to work for the government a long time ago as head of one of our better research labs. He quit because politics was getting in the way but that was a long time before Chavez. I mention it only to show that the Chavez show is not all that different from our previous "demodesgracia" (demo disgrace), our pseudo democracy. It's mostly that there is a new set on "ins" and the old "ins" who are now "outs" are mad as hell.



Students Chain Themselves In Front Of Cuban Embassy In Caracas And Other Stories
by moctavio

Today there were protests by Venezuelan students in front of the Cuban Embassy in Caracas. The National Guard decided to repress and seven students were jailed (later freed). Some students went to where the others were being held, while twenty six of them chained themselves in front of the Cuban Embassy, where there is a sot of Mexican stand off at this time.

(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/bdhp3xdccaesp5h_large.jpg?w=380&h=285)

Meanwhile, the Government no longer knows how to explain the devaluation. Maduro says that it is a speculative attack by the private sector, in a country with draconian foreign exchange controls. Jaua says that the "people" were not benefiting from the "cheap" dollars. Giordani says that they have screwed up all along, that SITME was "genetically perverted", that Venezuelans have a "dollarized nymphomania" and he knows all about the tricks to get CADIVI dollars illegal but has done nothing about it. Merentes gives Globovision a rambling non-sensical interview. (As a former scientist, I loved (cringed?) at his statement that scientists never rule out anything. Really Nelson?)

Meanwhile, Jaua cancels his visit to Peru to go to Cuba in the middle of rumors that Chavez is back in intensive care, while Marquina (@Marquina04)  says "La razón de la falla respiratoria es sin duda las metástasis a nivel pulmonar e invasión del drenaje linfático" (The reason for the respiratory failure is without any doubt the metastasis at the lung level and invasion of the lymphatic fluid"

A normal day elsewhere in Venezuela. Historian Napoleon Pisani, a fellow blogger,  was killed in a robbery at a museum, while a former national water polo champion was killed in a robbery.

Something seems to be reaching boiling point in Caracas.

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/02/14/students-chain-themselves-in-front-of-cuban-embassy-in-caracas-and-other-stories/
Title: Chavez is dead
Post by: captainccs on March 05, 2013, 01:59:45 PM
Live signal from Globovision:

http://www.globovision.com/envivo.htm
Title: Re: Chavez is dead
Post by: G M on March 05, 2013, 02:14:53 PM
Live signal from Globovision:

http://www.globovision.com/envivo.htm

Yes!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 05, 2013, 02:30:54 PM
I can't rejoice about anyone being dead as glad as I am that Chavez is gone. It is eerily quiet in Caracas. When the announcement was first made I heard a couple of kids shouting the news, that's how I found out. But the kids were quickly silenced.

Back in 2004 I said that Chavez would die of natural causes while still in office. I got that right.

Now the fun begins, can Chavismo survive without the charismatic leader? It's not a question of politics but one of immense wealth from oil, from drugs, from kickbacks.
Title: Dems mourn for Hugo
Post by: G M on March 05, 2013, 04:52:14 PM
http://hotair.com/archives/2013/03/05/breaking-hugo-chavez-is-dead/

Breaking: Hugo Chavez is dead; Update: Democratic rep mourns; Update: So does Jimmy Carter
posted at 5:21 pm on March 5, 2013 by Erika Johnsen

Well, that’s that: Chavez’s lieutenants have been insisting for months that the Venezuelan president would be making a full recovery from his cancer-related operations and that Venezuelans had no cause for alarm — but they’ve been getting notably less vociferous about the whole thing recently, and that charade is officially over. The Associated Press is reporting that the longtime socialist-Marxist leader died on Tuesday afternoon:

Vice President Nicolas Maduro, surrounded by other government officials, announced the death in a national television broadcast. He said Chavez died at 4:25 p.m. local time. …

Chavez underwent surgery in Cuba in June 2011 to remove what he said was a baseball-size tumor from his pelvic region, and the cancer returned repeatedly over the next 18 months despite more surgery, chemotherapy and radiation treatments. He kept secret key details of his illness, including the type of cancer and the precise location of the tumors. …

Two months after his last re-election in October, Chavez returned to Cuba again for cancer surgery, blowing a kiss to his country as he boarded the plane. He was never seen again in public. …

After a 10-week absence marked by opposition protests over the lack of information about the president’s health and growing unease among the president’s “Chavista” supporters, the government released photographs of Chavez on Feb. 15 and three days later announced that the president had returned to Venezuela to be treated at a military hospital in Caracas.
Update: So, what’s next for Venezuela now that their corrupt, destructive, America-hating, socialist leader is no more? Either Vice President Nicolas Maduro or National Assembly leader Diosdado Cabello will become interim president for thirty days while the country engineers a special election — and without Chavez to figurehead his “Chavismo” movement, the outcome isn’t necessarily a sure thing.

[A]lthough his cronies and their Cuban handlers are maneuvering to hold on to power, a Chavista succession is neither stable nor sustainable. With more audacious leadership among Venezuela’s democrats and intelligent solidarity from abroad, Chávez’s legacy might be buried with him.

The foundations of Chavismo are being shaken by an impending socioeconomic meltdown, a faltering oil sector, bitter in-fighting in his own movement, complicity with drug-trafficking and terrorism, rampant street crime, the inept performance by Chávez’s anointed successor, and growing popular rejection of Cuban interference, corrupt institutions, and rigged elections. Beset by these challenges and with Chávez no longer at the top of the ballot, the regime will use every advantage to engineer a victory in a special election to choose a new president.
Update (AP): Speaking of Maduro, he’s a low-rent anti-American populist crank from the same mold as his former boss. If you thought that Chavez shoving off might make way for detente between the U.S. and Venezuela, think again:

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was infected with cancer by “imperialist” enemies, his No. 2 alleged on Tuesday, adding that the socialist leader was suffering his hardest moments since an operation three months ago…

“We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.

“The old enemies of our fatherland looked for a way to harm his health,” Maduro said, comparing it with allegations that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who died in 2004, may have been poisoned by Israeli agents.
Read this old Hitchens piece from 2010 about seeing Chavez’s crankery up close. Even his lackey Sean Penn couldn’t break through the wall of paranoia, which included skepticism about the moon landing.

Update (AP): The main plot right now is Chavez’s death and the subplot is creepily affectionate reminiscences from some of his fellow travelers on the left. (John Sexton notes on Twitter that Chavez ultimately proved too tyrannical even for Noam Chomsky.) Soon, though, as the shock of the news about his demise recedes, those two will reverse positions. Here’s your early leader for useful idiot of the day. He’s a congressman, of course:

Jose E. Serrano ✔ @RepJoseSerrano 
Hugo Chavez was a leader that understood the needs of the poor. He was committed to empowering the powerless. R.I.P. Mr. President.


Update (AP): No surprise here:

George Galloway @georgegalloway 
Farewell Comandante Hugo Chavez champion of the poor the oppressed everywhere. Modern day Spartacus. Rest in Peace.

Update (AP): David Frum points to this piece from a few years ago estimating that the Man of the People had amassed a private fortune of $2 billion.

Update (AP): Michael Moynihan’s acidic obit at Newsweek is the one you’ll want to read. As he reminds us, there was no monster Chavez wasn’t willing to hug in the name of anti-American camaraderie. He was a proud supporter of Saddam, Mugabe, Qaddafi, and of course Bashar Assad, not because they overlapped much philosophically beyond authoritarianism but because they were all antagonists of the United States. That was Chavez’s core shtick — anti-colonialist vaudeville at the expense of the west’s superpower.

Update (AP): You outdid yourself on this one, Jimbo. I want to say “unbelievable,” but no, it’s quite believable.

Statement From Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter on the Death of Hugo Chavez

Rosalynn and I extend our condolences to the family of Hugo Chávez Frías. We met Hugo Chávez when he was campaigning for president in 1998 and The Carter Center was invited to observe elections for the first time in Venezuela. We returned often, for the 2000 elections, and then to facilitate dialogue during the political conflict of 2002-2004. We came to know a man who expressed a vision to bring profound changes to his country to benefit especially those people who had felt neglected and marginalized. Although we have not agreed with all of the methods followed by his government, we have never doubted Hugo Chávez’s commitment to improving the lives of millions of his fellow countrymen.

President Chávez will be remembered for his bold assertion of autonomy and independence for Latin American governments and for his formidable communication skills and personal connection with supporters in his country and abroad to whom he gave hope and empowerment. During his 14-year tenure, Chávez joined other leaders in Latin America and the Caribbean to create new forms of integration. Venezuelan poverty rates were cut in half, and millions received identification documents for the first time allowing them to participate more effectively in their country’s economic and political life.

At the same time, we recognize the divisions created in the drive towards change in Venezuela and the need for national healing. We hope that as Venezuelans mourn the passing of President Chávez and recall his positive legacies — especially the gains made for the poor and vulnerable — the political leaders will move the country forward by building a new consensus that ensures equal opportunities for all Venezuelans to participate in every aspect of national life.
Title: The Race is On!
Post by: captainccs on March 10, 2013, 08:22:53 PM
Venezuela's Capriles joins race, tussles with Chavez heir
By Andrew Cawthorne and Marianna Parraga | Reuters – 43 mins ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition leader vowed on Sunday to fight late Hugo Chavez's preferred successor for the presidency next month and the pair quickly locked horns in an angry war of words.

Henrique Capriles, a 40-year-old state governor, will face election favorite and acting President Nicolas Maduro. The pair must register their candidacies for the April 14 vote on Monday.

The election will decide whether Chavez's self-styled socialist and nationalist revolution will live on in the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves.

"I am going to fight," Capriles said at a news conference. "Nicolas, I am not going to give you a free pass. You will have to beat me with votes."

Former Vice President Maduro, 50, a husky one-time bus driver and union leader turned politician who echoes Chavez's anti-imperialist rhetoric, is expected to win comfortably, according to two recent polls.

Maduro pushed for a snap election to cash in on a wave of empathy triggered by Chavez's death Tuesday at age 58 after a two-year battle with cancer. He was sworn in as acting president on Friday to the fury of Capriles.

"You have used the body of the president for political campaigning," Capriles said of Maduro on Saturday, triggering an angry rebuke.

Maduro accused Capriles of sowing hate.

"You wretched loser!" Maduro said of Capriles in a televised speech. "You have shown your true face - that of a fascist."

Capriles, the centrist Miranda state governor who often wears a baseball cap and tennis shoes, lost to Chavez in October. But he won 44 percent of the vote - the strongest showing by the opposition against Chavez.

Capriles has accused the government and Supreme Court of fraud for letting Maduro campaign without stepping down.

Opposition supporters were trying to raise their spirits despite the odds.

"There's no reason to think that the opposition is condemned to defeat," Teodoro Petkoff, an anti-government newspaper editor, said on his Sunday talk show.

MADURO RAILS AGAINST CAPRILES, IMPERIALISM

Maduro has vowed to carry on where Chavez left off and ratify his policy platform. He acknowledged he has big shoes to fill.

"I am not Chavez - speaking strictly in terms of the intelligence, charisma, historical force, leadership capacity and spiritual grandeur of our comandante," he told a crowd on Saturday.

Chavez was immensely popular among Venezuela's poor for funneling vast oil wealth into social programs and handouts.

The heavy government spending and currency devaluations have contributed to annual inflation of more than 20 percent, hurting consumers.

"Maduro's success will depend on if he can fix the economy and its distortions," said a former high-level official in the Chavez government who declined to be named. "If he does that, he could emerge as a strong leader instead of one who is an heir."

Maduro's first official meeting on Saturday was with officials from China, whom Chavez courted to provide an alternative to investment that traditionally came from the United States.

He has adopted his mentor's touch for the theatrical, accusing imperialists, often a Chavez euphemism for the United States, of killing the charismatic but divisive leader by infecting him with cancer.

Emotional tributes were paid at a religious service at the military academy housing Chavez's casket on Sunday. Several million people have visited his coffin so far and his remains will be moved on Friday to a museum where a tomb is being built to show his embalmed corpse.

He may be moved later to another site next to the remains of his hero: 19th century liberator Simon Bolivar.

Chavez scared investors with nationalizations and railed against the wealthy. In heavily polarized Venezuela some well-to-do citizens toasted his death with champagne.

If elected, Capriles says he would copy Brazil's "modern left" model of economic and social policies.

Given the state resources at Maduro's disposal and the limited time for campaigning, Capriles faces an uphill battle.

"If the opposition runs, they'll lose. If they don't run, they lose even more!" tweeted Andres Izarra, who served as information minister under Chavez.

The opposition rank-and-file is heavily demoralized after losing last year's presidential race and getting hammered in gubernatorial elections in December, stoking internal party divisions.

"There's no doubt that it's an uphill race for Capriles," local political analyst Luis Vicente Leon said. "The trouble is that given the race is so close to Chavez's death, emotions get inflamed and the candidate probably continues to be Chavez rather than Maduro."

(With reporting by Ana Isabel Martinez, Simon Gardner, Terry Wade, Pablo Garibian, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo and Enrique Andres Pretel; Editing by Stacey Joyce and Cynthia Osterman)

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-opposition-leader-joins-presidential-race-004657986.html
Title: The Devil comments on Capriles candidacy
Post by: captainccs on March 11, 2013, 06:50:51 AM
Capriles Accepts Challenge Against Nicolas In Venezuela’s Election
March 11, 2013

A forceful Henrique Capriles went on TV last night and accepted the challenge to run against Venezuela’s interim President Nicolas Maduro, in a speech that quickly proved what I suggested on Saturday: Politics is back in Venezuela now that Chavez is absent.

Capriles was extraordinary in a very strong speech, which was carefully thought out. At all times, Capriles was very respectful of Hugo Chavez and fairly dismissive of Nicolas Maduro, whom he referred to as Nicolas or “Nicolas, chico” all the time. In one of his best lines, Capriles said, “Nicolas is not Chavez and you all know it, even Chavez complained about those that surrounded him and those are the people that want to govern you”

He noted that the Government and Nicolas had been lying to the people and he was very inclusive, saying he was not running for himself or to get power, but because he wanted Venezuela to do better. He offered a Government for all.

On the lying, he suggested that Chavez had been dead a while, asking how come all of the t-shirt and flags were ready for the funeral and support for Nicolas.

He blasted the Minister of Defense, not only for his illegal support of Nicola’s candidacy, but also he told him he was a disgrace, finishing next to last in his military class.

He had very unkind words for the Head of the Electoral Board, who wore a revolutionary arm band at Chavez’ funeral an asked her for respect, not for him, but for the Venezuelans who are not Chavistas and for the law.

By being forceful and confrontational, Capriles was not only re-energizing the voters, was clearly choosing a different campaign strategy than the one against Chavez. He knew then he had to be respectful of Chavez and he is ever more respectful now, but now he is completely critical of Nicolas and his cohorts. Capriles also seems to recognize that politics changed in Venezuela when Hugo Chavez passed away on March 5th.

And that this is the case was proven immediately, when Nicolas could not wait and had to respond to Capriles within the hour, something Chavez would have never done. Nicolas came and tried to blast Capriles, but his speech was too forced. And in a clear sign that Chavismo is worried about participation in the upcoming election, Nicolas announced that on the same day there will be a referendum to change the Constitution so that Chavez can be buried in the Panteon Nacional immediately. This was clearly a ploy to have the Chavista rank and file more involved in the upcoming election, but Capriles and the opposition can simply bypass the issue by backing the referendum and saying that if the people want it, it should be done.

But more importantly, Nicolas’ speech demonstrated what a weak candidate and poor politician he is. The campaign is too short for Capriles to overcome the abuse of power of Chavismo and the sympathy vote, but it seems as if Capriles had given the whole thing a lot of thought. And in the opening moments of the campaign, score one for the challenger.

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/03/11/capriles-accepts-challenge-against-nicolas-in-venezuelas-election/


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on March 11, 2013, 09:40:34 AM
Looks like Capriles is off to good start.  No pressure, but what Venezuela does in the next 30 days may determine their future for the rest of our lifetimes.
Title: Re: Venezuela, AP - Chavez was a religious figure?
Post by: DougMacG on April 02, 2013, 07:32:25 AM
Looking forward to our first-hand reports.  This story is sickening.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130330/DA5BL3VG1.html

Chavez's legacy gains religious glow in Venezuela
 Email this Story

Mar 30, 4:58 PM (ET)

By JACK CHANG

(AP)In this March 8, 2013 file photo released by Miraflores Press Office, Venezuela's acting President Nicolas Maduro stands in front of a portrait of Venezuela's late President Hugo Chavez...

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Holding a Bible in her arms at the start of Holy Week, seamstress Maria Munoz waited patiently to visit the tomb of the man she considers another savior of humanity.

The 64-year-old said she had already turned her humble one-bedroom house into a shrine devoted to the late President Hugo Chavez, complete with busts, photos and coffee mugs bearing his image. Now, she said, her brother-in-law was looking for a larger house to display six boxes' worth of Chavez relics that her family has collected throughout his political career.

"He saved us from so many politicians who came before him," Munoz said as tears welled in her eyes. "He saved us from everything."

Chavez's die-hard followers considered him a living legend on a par with independence-era hero Simon Bolivar well before his March 5 death from cancer. In the mere three weeks since, however, Chavez has ascended to divine status in this deeply Catholic country as the government and Chavistas build a religious mythology around him ahead of April 14 elections to pick a new leader.

(AP) In this July 4, 2011 file photo, Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez kisses a crucifix as he...

Chavez's hand-picked successor, Nicolas Maduro, has led the way, repeatedly calling the late president "the redeemer Christ of the Americas" and describing Chavistas, including himself, as "apostles."

Maduro went even further after Argentine Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio became Pope Francis earlier this month. Maduro said Chavez had advised Jesus Christ in heaven that it was time for a South American pope.

That comes as Maduro's government loops ads on state TV comparing Chavez to sainted heroes such as Bolivar and puts up countless banners around the capital emblazoned with Chavez's image and the message "From his hands sprouts the rain of life."

"President Chavez is in heaven," Maduro told a March 16 rally in the poor Caracas neighborhood of Catia. "I don't have any doubt that if any man who walked this earth did what was needed so that Christ the redeemer would give him a seat at his side, it was our redeemer liberator of the 21st century, the comandante Hugo Chavez."

Chavistas such as Munoz have filled Venezuela with murals, posters and other artwork showing Chavez in holy poses surrounded by crosses, rosary beads and other religious symbolism.

(AP) In this March 5, 2013 file photo, candles, placed by mourner demonstrators, burn in front of...

One poster on sale in downtown Caracas depicts Chavez holding a shining gold cross in his hands beside a quote from the Book of Joshua: "Comrade, be not afraid. Neither be dismayed, for I Will be with you each instant." The original scripture says "Lord thy God," and not "I," will accompany humanity each instant.

The late leader had encouraged such treatment as he built an elaborate cult of personality and mythologized his own rise to power, said Carolina Acosta-Alzuru, a University of Georgia media studies scholar who hails from Venezuela.

She said Chavez's successors are clearly hoping that pumping up that mythology can boost Maduro's presidential campaign, which has been based almost entirely on promises to continue Chavez's legacy. The opposition candidate, Gov. Henrique Capriles, counters that Maduro isn't Chavez, and highlights the problems that Chavez left behind such as soaring crime and inflation.

"They're fast-tracking the mythification," Acosta-Alzuru said of the government. "Sometimes I feel that Venezuelan politics has become a big church. Sometimes I feel it has become a big mausoleum."

Teacher Geraldine Escalona said she believed Chavez had served a divine purpose during his 58 years on earth, including launching free housing and education programs and pushing the cause of Latin American unity.

(AP) In this March 8, 2013 file photo, supporters of Nicolas Maduro watch on a giant screen...

"God used him for this, for unifying our country and Latin America," the 22-year-old said. "I saw him as a kind of God."

Such rhetoric has upset some religious leaders and drawn the reproach of Venezuela's top Roman Catholic official, Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino, on the eve of the Easter holidays.

"One can't equate any hero or human leader or authority with Jesus Christ," Urosa warned. "We can't equate the supernatural and religious sphere with the natural, earthly and sociopolitical."

Chavez, in his days, crossed paths frequently with Venezuela's church, which sometimes accused the socialist leader of becoming increasingly authoritarian. Chavez described Christ as a socialist, and he strongly criticized Cardinal Urosa, saying he misled the Vatican with warnings that Venezuela was drifting toward dictatorship.

Emerging this week from a church on the outskirts of Caracas, Lizbeth Colmenares slammed politicians from both sides for using derogatory language in the campaign, particularly during Holy Week.

(AP) In this March 5, 2012 file photo, a mural imitating the religious painting The Last Supper covers a wall of a popular housing complex, showing from left to right, Fidel Castro, Ernesto 'Che' Guevara, Mao Tse-tung, Vladimir Lenin, Karl Marx, Jesus Christ, Simon Bolivar, Venezuelan rebel fighters Alexis Gonzalez and Fabricio Ojeda and Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez in Caracas, Venezuela...

"They are not following the words of Christ," said Colmenares, a 67-year old retiree who was holding palm fronds woven into the shape of the Holy Cross. "They should be more humble and they shouldn't be attacking each other that way."

Of course, politics and religion have long mixed in Latin America, starting with the Spanish conquest of the New World, which Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes famously said was carried out "between sword and cross."

In the 20th century, Argentine first lady Eva Peron helped start a leftist Latin American pantheon after her untimely death in 1952. She's since become a veritable saint for millions in her homeland, with pictures of her angelic face still commonly displayed in homes and government offices. Like Chavez, Peron was worshipped as a protector of the poor as well as a political fighter.

Chavez tied his own legacy to Bolivar, incessantly invoking his name and delivering hundreds of speeches with Bolivar's stern portrait looming over his shoulder. Chavez renamed the whole country "The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela" and ordered a giant mausoleum built to house Bolivar's bones.

A short animated spot shown repeatedly on state TV this month makes clear that Chavez has already become a political saint for millions. It shows Chavez, after death, walking the western Venezuelan plains of his childhood before coming across Peron, Bolivar, the martyred Chilean President Salvador Allende and Argentine revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara, among others.

(AP) In this March 19, 2013 file photo, kiss marks left by supporters of Venezuela's former...

"We know that in Argentina we have a Peronism that is very much alive," said Acosta-Alzuru. "And there are other examples in Latin America where a leader, a caudillo, tries to be everything for the country. What Maduro and Chavez's followers are doing is trying to keep Chavez alive."

Some Chavez supporters waiting to visit his tomb on a hill overlooking Caracas said their comandante is with them in spirit - and for that reason they planned to vote for Maduro, confident that Chavez was guiding his hand.

Reaching the marble tomb means first walking through an exhibit celebrating Chavez's life and military career, with photos and text exalting a seemingly inevitable rise to immortality.

"He's still alive," said 52-year-old nurse Gisela Averdano. "He hasn't died. For me, he will always continue."
Title: It's a Circus
Post by: captainccs on April 04, 2013, 08:18:21 AM
It's a Circus.

You have to wonder if humans are all that rational after all. If they were, religions would be all dead.


Tales From Maduro’s Mind: Chavez’ Little Bird Apparition
April 2, 2013

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFbPo_5pyrI&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

You can’t make this corny, stupid, silly stuff up. Interim President Maduro says that this morning he went to a small chapel made out of wood (Where? Made out of wood. Really Nicolas? He was also alone, praying, sure Nicolas, we believe you) and a little bird came in and chirped at him (Maduro repeats the sounds and everything) and he whistled back the same pretty chirp. And then comes the jump into the mystical, it was Chavez, he felt the spirit, blessing the campaign, yada yada yada…

Really, hard to make this stuff up. Hard to even think of saying such things.

Chigüire Bipolar gives up making jokes, says it is really hard to make things up after Maduro saying this.

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/04/02/tales-from-maduros-mind-chavez-little-bird-apparition/

Title: Venezuela Raids Local Brokerage of Oppenheimer
Post by: captainccs on April 06, 2013, 03:35:11 PM
No comment necessary but it does make life more difficult...

Wall Street Journal: 
Venezuela Raids Local Brokerage of Oppenheimer
By Kejal Vyas

CARACAS — Venezuelan authorities late Thursday raided the home and office of what they say is a local representative of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., the brokerage subsidiary of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc., OPY -1.19% for allegedly violating foreign-exchange regulations.

Venezuela's national intelligence agency, or Sebin, seized documents from Caracas brokerage Brisbane, Mendes de Leon, Pettus & Asociados that it says point to alleged buying and selling of dollars, according to a statement Friday from the Attorney General's office. Such activity would be prohibited in the South American country unless done through the government. The statement identified the company as a local representative of Oppenheimer & Co.

New York-based Oppenheimer did not respond to calls seeking comment.

The move comes as interim President Nicolas Maduro increases his calls for combating currency speculation in Venezuela, where a shortage of hard currency filtering through government channels has led to a spike in dollar demand on the black market. In recent speeches, Mr. Maduro has talked of cracking down on the illegal trade, which he says is run by "bourgeois" opponents engaged in economic sabotage against the ruling socialist party.

Authorities also "seized dollars, euros and firearms" from the house of brokerage owner John Gayle Pettus, the statement said. Calls to the office of Brisbane, Mendes de Leon, Pettus & Asociados and to employees went unanswered Friday, and they couldn't be reached for comment.

The Venezuelan government said it began a probe into the local brokerage on March 23 after it was notified of alleged "irregularities" at the company. The Attorney General's office said it found evidence allegedly linked to dollar exchanges at the site.

An Information Ministry statement earlier Friday indicated that Mr. Pettus, a Venezuelan citizen, had been detained, but it wasn't immediately clear if he was still being held or facing any charges.

Mr. Pettus couldn't be reached for comment. Spokesmen at the Information Ministry, as well as the Interior and Justice Ministry, said they had no further comment.

The U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority lists Mr. Pettus as a broker registered with Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.'s Venezuela office since 1993. A 2012 edition of Standard & Poor's directory shows Oppenheimer as the only U.S. broker listed with a Venezuelan affiliate.

Russ Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, who was a partner at Mr. Pettus' brokerage until 2007, said he received calls from employees informing him of the raid Thursday afternoon.

Many economists blame the leftist regime's currency controls, implemented by the late president Hugo Chavez in 2003 to prevent capital flight, for the lack of dollars in the economy which has led to a sharp depreciation of the bolivar on the black market. The government has set a fixed exchange rate of 6.3 Venezuela bolivar per dollar, but dollars are traded at nearly 23 bolivar on the black market.

A scarcity of dollars has also led to widespread shortages of food and consumer goods, as companies in this import-heavy economy complain they lack access to the dollars they need to purchase products from abroad.

In 2010, Venezuela's government cracked down on a large parallel currency market and imprisoned several brokerage directors for allegedly violating currency controls. Four former directors of Econoinvest Casa de Bolsa CA, which was once Venezuela's biggest brokerage firm, were released in December after spending more than two years in prison. The directors have said they never violated exchange laws. Their trial is continuing.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324600704578404920108132756.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

 
Title: Circus & Corpses
Post by: captainccs on April 06, 2013, 03:43:16 PM
Today has been a god damn circus! The government must have pressed thousands of CDs with political music and they keep playing it over and over again. Getting the election over is going to be a big relief. The central theme is that Chavez lives and will never die, "Viva Chavez." They seem to have only corpses to adore: Bolivar, Che, Chavez. People voting for these corpses, do they think corpses can govern? Madness!

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: And the winners are...
Post by: captainccs on April 07, 2013, 04:29:35 PM
The winners are the guys selling T-shirts, caps, flags and banners, they must have sold hundreds of thousands by the number of people I saw wearing them.

Last night the political music went on until quite late. Today it started at around 11 in the morning but they quit by 6 PM. What a relief. Hearing the same broken record over and over again is truly a PITA!

Around noon I left the house to walk to the produce market (open Tuesday to Sunday). I saw a fair number of Chavistas in "getting out the vote" mode but only a few were activists. I saw about six or eight Caprilistas (you recognize them by the T-shirts and caps) walking toward an opposition march. Instead of going home by the same route, I decided to take the Metro back. Where i got off I was met by a river if Caprilistas! It was the closest I have been to a political march in my 74 years of existence.

Seeing so many opposition people marching changed my mood for the better.  The Chavistas have been very good at  capturing their political base. Chavez was what we call a chameleon, changing his coloring to fit the mood. Over the past three or four years they dropped the public "like Cuba" stance which never did sit well with most Venezuelan. Instead they created an image of a loving Chavez - a  "Corazón de mi pueblo" image. I was quite surprised when a few week ago our concierge declared for Chavez (a change of heart?) saying that the Chavistas were protecting the working classes. The concierge has been with us for over 20 years and I don't ever recall having any serious labor related problem with her. Still, the Chavistas won her over.

There can be no doubt that the Chavistas have a solid following and politically they have outmaneuvered the opposition by a wide margin. Seeing so many opposition marching today tells me that we are truly divided, maybe close to a 50-50 split. What worries me more is the economic situation, specially the exchange controls.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: #LaAvenidaBolivarSeQuedóPequeña
Post by: captainccs on April 07, 2013, 06:49:14 PM
#LaAvenidaBolivarSeQuedóPequeña is the first in the WORLDWIDE trending topic list. WOW / es el primero en la lista de treding topics MUNDIAL

#LaAvenidaBolivarSeQuedóPequeña (https://twitter.com/search?q=%23LaAvenidaBolivarSeQued%C3%B3Peque%C3%B1a&src=tren)

Title: Cats get special electoral treatment
Post by: captainccs on April 10, 2013, 02:25:50 PM
An email to our marina manager:

Quote
Good Afternoon Carlos,
Regarding the marina cats.  We use approx. 8 kilos a week of cat food.   Omar has been buying two 3 Kilo bags.  Dellisa (Black girl feeding the cats) has been supplementing the cat food out of her personal stock (she has 2 cats).
Would you please ask Omar to buy 8 kilos of cat food a week.  Omar will need to buy 4 kilos twice a week.
Regarding Monday (Day after election), we are concerned that there may be businesses closed or problems with traffic.  Would you please ask Omar to buy double the cat food on this Friday so that we don't have a problem on Monday.     So this Friday we will need 8 kilos (Friday's regular 4 kilos and Monday's -4 kilos).  So on Monday- he will not need to buy food.  He will buy cat food again- 4 Kilos on Friday.   
 
Thanks for your attention to this matter.
 
Diana
Zephyrus
Title: Miami Herald: Venezuela's chance to move forward
Post by: DougMacG on April 12, 2013, 01:34:54 PM
Good luck Denny S. !

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/11/3339119/venezuelas-chance-to-move-forward.html

The Miami Herald | EDITORIAL
Venezuela’s chance to move forward

Sunday’s election in Venezuela promises to open a tumultuous new chapter in the history of that South American country. For the first time in 15 years, Hugo Chávez’s name is not on the ballot, but his presence is everywhere. This election is all about him and the legacy of a decade-and-a-half of misrule.

Under normal circumstances, in any democratic country, the electorate would be ripe for a change after 15 years of upheaval that have brought misery for many and created an exodus among those who could leave, many settling in South Florida.

Chronic power outages, food shortages, devaluations, rampant crime, corrupt government aided by communist Cuba — this is the legacy of Hugo Chávez.

For Venezuelans, the choice is clear: They can move forward, restoring the democracy that Venezuela once was, or they can watch their country continue to deteriorate under a Chávez apprentice like the official candidate, Nicolás Maduro, the hand-picked political heir and current vice president.

Not surprisingly, the betting is that Mr. Maduro will win, and for that the candidate can thank his late mentor. Over the course of prolonged tenure, Mr. Chávez created a political machine that sharply curtailed the possibility that the official presidential candidate could lose.

The way Mr. Chávez won election three times and consolidated his grip on Venezuela is no secret. He controlled all the levers of political power, including the council that makes the electoral rules, counts the votes and settles disputes. He used the government’s money and power to promote his candidacy in a way that no opposition political figure could possibly match.

He stifled the independent news media and systematically dismantled the independent institutions that could restrain his power, including the judiciary.

A onetime paratrooper and frustrated coup-plotter, Mr. Chávez stacked the military leadership with loyalists and carefully watched over the ranks to ensure that no one would try to topple him from power by force of arms, as he once tried to overthrow a democratic government in 1992.

Finally, he made sure to woo the country’s large underclass by inducements such as free housing and by lavishing political attention on them, though he failed to create a path to prosperity for anyone except his political cronies, who got rich off government contracts.

All of this poses a virtually insurmountable challenge for Henrique Capriles Radonski, an opposition governor and leader of the political front arrayed against the forces of the government. Hundreds of thousands have shown up at his rallies, attesting to the underlying hunger for change.

Clearly, the playing field is slanted in favor of the Maduro ticket. In an implicit admission of potential ballot chicanery, the government has pointedly rejected any role for international election observers, such as the OAS.

But even if he wins, success promises to be short-lived.

The 50-year-old former bus driver and union leader does not possess Mr. Chávez’s rhetorical gifts, wit or political skills. His limited ability will be put to the test as the economy continues to deteriorate and Venezuelans of all stripes become more restless.

Under this scenario, the political situation could degenerate swiftly. The United States and other democratic countries in the region should stand ready to denounce government abuses and support the advocates of democracy as Venezuela enters a dangerous period.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 12, 2013, 04:07:03 PM

"Under this scenario, the political situation could degenerate swiftly. The United States and other democratic countries in the region should stand ready to denounce government abuses and support the advocates of democracy as Venezuela enters a dangerous period."

Good luck with that.  Remember what Baraq and Hillary did to Honduras.  (Use the search function here and you will find it)
Title: It's a beautiful day
Post by: captainccs on April 14, 2013, 08:35:47 AM
Sunny with just a hint of haze. It's 11:00 local time and I'm taking off for a walk to my voting station. I'll report any news on my return.

The feeling here is that abstention will decide the vote. If you don't vote the other guy wins. There is the belief among the opposition that Maduro cannot get out the vote. During the week I heard on the Metro a woman with a loud voice say: "lo que viene no sirve" (what is coming is no good). From other things she said it was clear that she was a Chavez devotee. If for her Maduro is as useless as Capriles, why bother voting? On the other side, in my building a lady is organizing transport for senior citizens to get them to vote.

If the vote is close the chavistas will steal it. Let's hope the difference is large enough that they cannot steal it.

There existed a very powerful economic group in Venezuela set up by an immigrant from the Canary Islands. Mendoza started out with a hardware store which he built into a construction supply empire including cement, ceramics, paint (Sherwin Williams),  construction materials and even a mortgage bank. In addition the group made paper and paper products, and his daughter set up a foundation to treat bones for young invalids (Ortopédico Infantil), and even an art gallery. Grupo Mendoza was one of the most successful Venezuelan conglomerates ever. The old man never groomed a successor. His managers lived in constant political infighting. I know a lot of this from personal experience. Several of their companies were my clients while I was with IBM and later when I was an independent management consultant. These positions gave me access at the highest levels (excluding Mendoza himself). I got a chance to meet Mendoza personally when a painting sold by my mother in one of their auctions had a bad ending. But that is a story for another day. Today's story is that on his death, the Grupo Mendoza disintegrated quickly because there was no capable successor to carry on.

Chavez picked Maduro to be his vice-president because Maduro was the least threatening person he could find, a veritable lap-dog. I though there would be more infighting among Chavistas for the presidency. Some said that the president of the National Assembly should have been legally the presidential candidate. Diosdado Cabello is not all that popular in Chavista circles and he lost the gubernatorial election for Miranda State to Capriles.

Time to go. Talk to you guys later.

Denny  Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 14, 2013, 01:50:40 PM
I got home at 3:30 after a 4 and a half hour walk from Los Caobos to Altamira and back. I talked to a lot of people, no queues anywhere. Voting was quick. Capta-huella (finger print analyzer) was used only once not twice as last time. There seemed to be no delaying tactics by the government. Opposition people were very optimistic. I ran into some youth that I would not have thought were anti-Chavez.

A Maduro truck is going by my house this minute, totally illegal.

Let’s see how they steal the vote this time.

Another report:

Tour of Caracas On Voting Day: No Lines, Some Abuses
April 14, 2013

Update 1:47PM: I am told by reliable people that at 1 PM the percentage of voters that had cast their vote was running 10% behind the same number in October.

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/04/14/tour-of-caracas-on-voting-day-no-lines-some-abuses/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on April 14, 2013, 03:22:38 PM
Good luck Denny.  The free world could really use a win right now.
Title: We lose again
Post by: captainccs on April 14, 2013, 09:22:33 PM
We lose again but by a smaller margin. Not the final count: Maduro 50.66% Capriles 49.07%, about 200,000 votes difference.

Miguel calls it a huge victory for the opposition. How is losing a victory if it means 6 more years of the same crap?

One electoral board member suggested a physical recount of the ballot. They would not be doing that if they had to fudge the results, I don't think.

The next step is hoping Maduro implodes.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on April 15, 2013, 07:10:39 AM
Very sad and disappointing.  

"One electoral board member suggested a physical recount of the ballot. They would not be doing that if they had to fudge the results, I don't think."

A recount would be nice anyway to establish trust in the vote count and put would-be cheaters on notice for the future.

"Miguel calls it a huge victory for the opposition. How is losing a victory if it means 6 more years of the same crap?"  ... " The next step is hoping Maduro implodes."

Doesn't seem important now, but margin of victory matters in governing, and so does the approval rating after the election.

Interesting that opposition to socialism/fascism wins 49% support in Venezuela but only 27% support of Latin Americans in the US:  http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/09/politics/latino-vote-key-election
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 08:26:41 AM
Don't let the term "hispanic" blind you. Obama is "un negrito," OIbama is "mi color." On the whole Venezuelans are a lot less racist than Americans but this also allows us to talk freely of color, nationality and other personal traits without being accused of racism. Chavez tried to bring race to the table but that essentially failed,  only the very young, who didn't know better, fell for it. It should not come as a surprise that color and nationality are attractors even for people who would not be considered racist.

Second, the vote here was not about socialism vs, capitalism at all. Capriles is best described as a "Lula da Silva" style socialist. Even if he were if he were a capitalism at heart (I have no way of knowing but he certainly has capitalists in his lineage), he would not be able to turn Venezuela on a dime. It is important to remember that CAP was impeached mainly because he tried to bring economic freedoms to Venezuela (eliminate price controls, privatize state enterprises) some of which were not kindly received in great measure because he never prepared people for the transitory pain these changes bring. Raising the price of gas at the pump broke the camel's back and he was fired.

One can live with socialism and populism provided one's basic economic freedoms remain intact, specially the right to own property. One doesn't particularly care if the government is misspending oil income but one sure cares if one's home or business is taken away. Milton Friedman put it very nicely.

Quote
A final personal note: it is a rare privilege for an author to be able to evaluate his own work forty years after it first appeared. I appreciate very much having the chance to do so. I am enormously gratified by how well the book has withstood time and how pertinent it remains to today's problems. If there is one major change I would make, it would be to replace the dichotomy of economic freedom and political freedom with the trichotomy of economic freedom, civil freedom and political freedom. After I finished the book, Hong Kong, before it was returned to China, persuaded me that while economic freedom is a necessary condition for civil and political freedom, political freedom, desirable though it may be, is not a necessary condition for economic and civil freedom. Along these lines, the one major defect in the book seems to me an inadequate treatment of the role of political freedom, which under some circumstances promotes economic and civil freedom, and under others, inhibits economic and civil freedom. [emphasis added]

I analyzed the above in light of the Venezuela experience at Software Times  Venezuela 2011 (http://softwaretimes.com/files/venezuela+2011.html).

Title: WSJ: The Cuban vote in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 15, 2013, 10:03:33 AM
Venezuela held a presidential election on Sunday to replace left-wing populist Hugo Chávez, whose death was announced on March 5.

The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) put up Nicólas Maduro, a Cuba-trained ideologue and the man the cancer-stricken Chávez anointed as his heir in December. Facing off against him was Justice First candidate Henrique Capriles, governor of the state of Miranda and the first politician since the 1998 advent of chavismo who has been able to unify the opposition.

As we went to press, returns were not yet in. But the opposition was calling on supporters to demand proof of the vote count at local polling stations. Tensions were rising.

If Mr. Capriles prevailed it would be a major upset. A Maduro victory was more likely not only because of the sympathy vote for the late Chávez. The chavistas have been using state power to cheat, intimidate and spend themselves first across the finish line for more than a decade. International observers were prohibited from sending missions to Venezuela and Mr. Capriles was denied access to almost all television and radio stations during the campaign.

Then there was the Cuba factor. The Castro regime has become a big player in Venezuelan politics and had a big stake in the outcome—namely the threat by Mr. Capriles that if he won he would curtail the shipment of some $4 billion in oil annually to the regime. As such Havana made sure it held considerable sway over the outcome.

Last month the Spanish newspaper ABC reported that the regime "is sending a detachment of agents for electoral control that could reach 2,500 officers, according to intelligence information that came out of the island." Havana admits that there are already some 46,000 Cubans serving the "revolution" in Venezuela. These are supposedly medical personnel, teachers and trainers, but a former high-ranking chavista who didn't want to be identified told ABC that "all of that is a cover to hide the control that Cuba has in Venezuela."

That comment was supported by the declaration by Cuba's chief of missions in Venezuela that the missions are there "to ensure our commitment; if until now we have been giving our all, [we] now are ready to give even our lives, our blood, if it were needed for this revolution."'

In 2005, while hosting a visit from Chávez in Havana, Fidel Castro proclaimed Venezuela and Cuba one country and its people "Venecubans." In 2010, the Economist magazine reported on an "apparently . . . long stay" in Caracas of Castro intelligence heavyweight Ramiro Valdés, "whose responsibilities at home include policing Cuban's access to the Internet."

The story also noted Cuban involvement in the operation of "Venezuela's ports, telecommunications, police training, the issuing of identity documents and the business registry" and that in 2005 it received "a contract to modernize [Venezuela's] identity card system."

In a fair fight, the 40-year-old Mr. Capriles might have won easily. Inflation for the first quarter of this year was well over 30% annualized. Currency weakness and price controls are causing shortages of many staple foods that now have to be imported because the agricultural sector has been destroyed by nationalizations and capital flight. The poor are also those who most suffer the effects of the soaring murder rate. Electricity blackouts have become routine.

The Maduro campaign relied heavily on emotion to counteract potential apathy for its candidate. The image of Chávez, whose death stirred thousands to weeping hysterically in the streets only five weeks ago, was never far from Mr. Maduro as he stumped on television or in person. He even claimed that Chávez returned to see him in the guise of a little bird.

Yet the chavistas and the Castro regime weren't willing to depend on the ghost of Chávez for victory. Last month, during the auditing of voting machines, the opposition uncovered evidence that the PSUV had in its possession pass codes that gave it the ability to sabotage the voting process on election day. The head of the opposition coalition said that this would not affect vote tallies, but it could be used to slow the process.

This might explain why in past elections at polling stations where the opposition vote was strong, waiting times often ran for many hours, leading many potential voters to skip the exercise altogether. The government-controlled electoral council denied the charges and the matter has not been rectified.

Electronic voting machines provide plenty of other opportunities for shenanigans. In past elections, Bolivarian enforcers executed a late-day roundup in poor neighborhoods of anyone who was a no-show at the polls. Many Venezuelans believe that because finger prints and identity numbers are taken at voting station, the vote is not secret. Fear of punishment either by getting fired from one's job or being denied state aid is real.

The upshot here is that Sunday's election told us very little about the real preferences of the Venezuelan electorate.

Write to O'Grady@wsj.com
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 11:09:44 AM
Of course the vote is not secret if they don't want it to be. The process:

You hand in your ID card and they find your name on the printed lists
They input your ID number into an online computer
You verify your ID number with your fingerprint
Then you vote.

Who just voted? The guy who just sent in his fingerprint.

Denny Schlesinger
  
Title: Capriles press conference
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 12:22:05 PM
Capriles just wound up a press conference with the international press corps present, asking for a recount of the vote.

It seems the government wants to rush through the proclamation of Maduro without doing the recount. Capriles has asked publicly that people go to the state level electoral offices asking for a recount saying it's a local responsibility to do so. Should the recount not happen then he is calling for people to go to the national offices of the electoral body (CNE) to ask for the recount. In addition, he has asked people to join a cacerolazo (pot banging) tonight at 8 PM should there e no response from the CNE by then.

This is the closest call I have heard not to civil disobedience but to a public demand for a recount. Will the CNE accept? Will they call out the riot police to stop the people from asking for their rights? This could turn ugly quickly.

Capriles made the point that at least a million votes changed from Chavez in October to Capriles yesterday, proof that even Chavistas have had enough.

Capriles is a pretty good speaker. This isn't over as I feared yesterday. The game of chicken is now in force. Who will blink first?



I believe this is earlier news:

Henrique Capriles Wants Vote Recount in Venezuela Elections

(http://a.abcnews.com/images/ABC_Univision/GTY_Venezuela_Dispute_wg.jpg)

By MANUEL RUEDA (@ruedareport)
April 15, 2014
Henrique Capriles, has refused to accept the results of Sunday's presidential election in Venezuela until votes are fully audited.

According to Venezuela's National Electoral Council, Capriles, the opposition candidate, obtained 49 percent of the votes this weekend. That means he lost to government candidate Nicolas Maduro by just 1.5 percentage points.

Capriles claimed there had been hundreds of violations at voting stations across Venezuela on Sunday and asked for a full recount of the votes before he would accept defeat.

http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/News/venezuela-elections-henrique-capriles-vote-recount/story?id=18948330#.UWxRHkZzrOk
Title: Coverage of the press conference
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 12:24:50 PM
Capriles refuses to concede Venezuela presidential election, demands recount

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/04/15/Production/WashingtonPost/Images/2013-04-15T053251Z_01_TBR100_RTRIDSP_3_VENEZUELA-ELECTION-CAPRILES.jpg)

By Juan Forero, Monday, April 15, 12:52 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela - Nicolas Maduro, the longtime loyal lieutenant of the late President Hugo Chavez, celebrated his apparent narrow victory in the presidential contest Monday, even as opponent Henrique Capriles refused to concede and demanded a recount, citing 3,200 irregularities on the day of the vote.

Instead of the resounding victory that many pollsters predicted for Maduro, who had the sympathy vote after Chavez died last month following a battle with cancer, his government begins on a shaky foundation with a questionable mandate. The margin of victory was just 235,000 votes.

“I want to say to the candidate of the government, the loser today is you,” Capriles said in an emotional press conference called moments after Maduro declared victory at the presidential palace where Chavez had given rousing speeches celebrating election wins.

He said that Maduro had benefitted from a vast state get-out-the vote machinery that included last minute tactics to bring voters to polls – including reopening closed polling stations.

“We are not going to recognize the results until each vote of the Venezuelan people is counted, one by one,” said Capriles, 40, an energetic lawyer and governor of economically important Miranda state. The Venezuelan electoral system is automated, but each vote also produces a paper receipt that can be counted by hand, according to electoral regulations.

One of the rectors of the National Electoral Council, Vicente Diaz, had called for a hand count after the results of the election were released. And in his victory speech, Maduro said, “We’re going to do it.”

“We’re not afraid – let the boxes talk,” said Maduro, 50, referring to the cardboard boxes that hold ballots. “That the truth be told.”

Still, on a tense Monday in which many businesses were shuttered, it remained unclear if a recount would take place.

The government continued with plans for a ceremony on Monday afternoon in which Maduro would be proclaimed the winner, to be followed days later by a swearing in ceremony. And the electoral council – which has five members, the majority of whom are allies of the government – had not said whether a recount would take place.

“These are the irreversible results that the Venezuelan people have decided with this electoral process,” Tibisay Lucena, the head of the council, said late Sunday as she read the results.

According to the council, voters gave Maduro 50.6 percent of the vote to 49.1 for Capriles, with 99 percent of the vote counted. It was unclear, though, if the Venezuelan vote from outside of the country – which analysts say is overwhelmingly opposed to Chavez – were included in that total.

In Washington, White House spokesman Jay Carney called Capriles’s request for an audit of votes an “important, prudent, and necessary step” to ensure that Venezuelans have trust in the election results.

The narrow margin was a letdown for many in Chavismo, the radical movement that Chavez founded, with the goal of turning Venezuela into a socialist state.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/capriles-refuses-to-concede-venezuela-presidential-election-demands-recount/2013/04/15/4db19c9e-a5eb-11e2-a8e2-5b98cb59187f_story.html

Title: Venezuelan opposition calls for protests to demand recount
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 01:46:48 PM
Venezuelan opposition calls for protests to demand recount
By Marianna Parraga and Todd Benson | Reuters – 38 mins ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - Opposition leader Henrique Capriles on Monday called on Venezuelans to take to the streets and peacefully demand a vote recount if election authorities formally proclaim Hugo Chavez's chosen successor as the next president.

The day after Venezuela's election board declared acting President Nicolas Maduro winner of Sunday's presidential vote by a tight margin, Capriles insisted the opposition's own count showed he was the victor.

"We think we won the election. The other side thinks they won and we're both within our rights," Capriles, a 40-year-old state governor, said in a televised news conference.

"All we're asking is that our rights be respected, that the will of the people be respected, and that every single vote be counted, every little piece of paper, that paper isn't for recycling, it's proof."

The request appeared to fall on deaf ears.

Shortly after Capriles spoke, senior ruling party official Dario Vivas told Reuters the proclamation ceremony would go ahead and accused Capriles of trying to "destabilize" the country.

Conscious of Venezuela's long history of turbulent protests, Capriles urged his supporters to resist temptations to resort to violence. He called for Venezuelans to bang pots and pans in protest on Monday night if Maduro is formally proclaimed winner.

If the stalemate continues, Capriles asked his followers to gather in protest on Tuesday in front of election board offices around the nation. If there is still no sign of a recount by Wednesday, Capriles pledged to lead a peaceful march through the streets of Caracas to the election board's headquarters.

UNCERTAIN FUTURE

The controversy around Venezuela's first presidential election without Chavez on the ballot in two decades ushered in new uncertainty in the oil-rich country.

It also raised doubts about the future of "Chavismo," Chavez's self-proclaimed socialist movement, without its charismatic founder, who died from cancer on March 5.

Before dying, Chavez named his longtime protégé Maduro as his preferred successor, giving the former bus driver a huge boost heading into Sunday's election.

But the endorsement was not enough to ensure an easy victory for Maduro, who edged out Capriles with 50.7 percent of the votes, according to election board returns.

Capriles took 49.1 percent, just 235,000 fewer votes, according to the official count. Opposition sources told Reuters their count showed Capriles won by more than 300,000 votes.

A sense of normalcy reigned in Caracas on Monday despite the election tensions, with businesses open and traffic flowing, although there were some isolated protests.

About 200 pro-opposition students protested in an upscale district, trying to enter a hotel where unofficial foreign election observers were meeting. Outside the opposition's campaign headquarters, some protesters shouted "No more fraud."

Maduro, 50, said he would accept a full recount, even as he insisted his victory was clean and dedicated it to Chavez. Senior government officials, on state television and Twitter, ridiculed the opposition as sore losers and praised Venezuela's election system as foolproof.

"It's impossible to manipulate the election result," Jorge Rodriguez, Maduro's campaign chief, said on state TV.

The U.S. government backed the call for a full audit of the results and the Organization of American States offered to send election auditors to help. Chavista allies such as Russia and Cuba, which receives generous aid and subsidized oil from Venezuela, immediately congratulated Maduro.

Venezuela's election board is no stranger to controversy. Over the years, the opposition has repeatedly accused it of turning a blind eye to the blatant use of state resources in favor of pro-Chavez candidates. Critics say four of its five members are openly pro-government.

"The next few hours are critical," Pedro Benitez, a senior member of the opposition coalition, told Reuters. "The opposition has to get access to the ballot boxes, which are under custody of the (military)."

A similar situation gripped Mexico in 2006, when a leftist opposition candidate alleged fraud after losing a tight presidential race to Felipe Calderon. A partial recount followed and Calderon's victory was upheld.

(Additional reporting by Eyanir Chinea and Mario Naranjo; Writing by Todd Benson; Editing by Kieran Murray, Jackie Frank and Bill Trott)

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelans-vote-future-chavista-socialism-000101418.html
Title: Government nor backing down
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 01:57:10 PM
They are about to proclaim Maduro president.

Cacerolazo going full blast.
Title: One member missing
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 02:13:00 PM
One of the five members of the electoral board (CNE) is missing from the ceremony. I wonder if its the one who yesterday called for the recount. Didn't catch the names.

Title: Re: One member missing
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 06:50:43 PM
One of the five members of the electoral board (CNE) is missing from the ceremony. I wonder if its the one who yesterday called for the recount. Didn't catch the names.


Yes, Vicente Diaz.
Title: The Devil Reports
Post by: captainccs on April 15, 2013, 06:53:49 PM
One solid hour of cacerolazo.



Venezuela Tense, As Electoral Board Rushes Maduro Proclamation
by moctavio

So, the story is like this:

Yesterday, Maduro's team was telling diplomats and reporters that at 1:00 PM Maduro was ahead by 2% of the votes. At that time, it looked as if abstention was going to be more like 30% of the total number of voters. In the next couple of hours, participation increased dramatically, but the increase was higher in traditionally more pro-opo centers than in pro-Chávez centers. However, by 4 PM Chavismo was projecting a victory by 1-2% of the vote.

Meanwhile in Capriles' camp, all that was being counted at that point was participation. They had the same 30% abstention projection at 1 PM, but then it accelerated and they began projecting 22-23% abstention at the end of the day. But they could see the details and the participation by 4 PM in the more pro-opo centers was 75% (top 50% pro-opo centers) versus 69% in the pro-Chávez centers.

When the Actas began arriving, the opposition counting center began seeing a virtual tie from the time it had 20% of the tallies. Essentially, within the error of the tally, it was impossible to predict who was winning. If you added the international votes, then they would get a Capriles victory.

This continued and the Capriles team was hearing that Chavismo was saying that Maduro had an advantage of a quarter of a million votes. As the night went on, Capriles decided to call Maduro and told him that his numbers were saying the race was too tight and any announcement should be held off. Maduro told Capriles that he had to check (??) and never called back. Within twenty minutes CNE made the announcement.

Meanwhile, at the CNE, Vicente Diaz had argued that no announcement should be made and they should wait to reconcile the numbers. Vicente Diaz also suggested that the CNE itself shoudl call for an audit, something it can do. He was voted down and the announcement was made.

Today, Vicente Diaz went to CNE where there was supposed to be a meeting and instead found that Maduro would be proclaimed as the winner, while the meeting in which he was going to formally propose that a complete counting of the ballots and tallies be made, was not going to take place.

Thus, Vicente Diaz decided not to go to the proclamation.

At which point I ask: Why the rush? Why make the announcement if things were not clear or there were doubts? Why rush to proclaim Maduro if he was not planned to be sworn in until Thursday?

That is the big "if", Maduro who alraedy stars weak with a very small victory, makes himself more illegitimate by trying to be proclaimed early and while he claims he wants to count the boxes, the suggestion is this may not happen.

Meanwhile, Capriles was calling for people not to go out and protest, but instead participate in a pot banging tonight at 8 PM, as well as marches in all regional CNE's tomorrow and one on Wednesday to the CNE to formally request a complete recount of all the ballots and comparison with tallies and the voting notebooks.

But students had a mind of their own and began protesting in many parts of the country. In Caracas, near Plaza Altamira and the Autopista, students gathered to protest. Chavista motorcycles began showing up and there appeared that there would be confrontations. Then opposition motorcycles showed up and Chavistas fortunately left.

Meanwhile, the Government sent out the National Guard, who used tear gas to disperse the crowd away from the Autopista. I managed to get a little close at that time. Here are some protesters:

And here is the National Guard holding strong to stop students from going down to the Autopista:

And here is a picture of the fires the students built to stop the National Guard from going through:

And in the only gesture of peace and conciliation of the last 24 hours, Maduro ordered tonight that the National Guard withdraw from Alatamira and the Autopista.

Things are tense. Very Tense. Falcon said some Generals have been detained because they disagreed with decision to announce the results. Others tell me they are searching for Capriles' Minister of Defense "in pectore". The European Union, OAS, US and other UNASUR countries have sent the message they will not recognize Maduro until votes are counted again.

Stay tuned...

But I just don't believe any votes will be recounted and ballot boxes found in at elast eight places around the country, either being dispose of or being burned suggest I will be right. Fraud is the only word that comes to mind...

http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/04/15/venezuela-tense-as-electoral-board-rushes-maduro-proclamation/

Title: WSJ: The mess in Caracas
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 16, 2013, 05:12:42 AM
The Mess in Caracas
The close election is a repudiation of chavismo. .
 
Hugo Chávez spent 14 years ruining Venezuela, and the mess seems likely to get worse after Sunday's contested presidential election. His anointed heir, union leader Nicolás Maduro, claimed victory with 50.7% of the vote, but the narrow margin amounts to a repudiation of chavismo considering all of the obstacles thrown at the opposition.

Challenger Henrique Capriles is demanding a full recount and has refused to concede, and rightly so. The U.S., European Union and the even the left-leaning Organization of American States all came down on Mr. Capriles's side. Mr. Maduro at first said he'd go along with a recount, but Monday before we went to press the National Electoral Council declared him the winner. There are also reports that ballot boxes that were supposed to be under the eye of the National Guard have begun to disappear.

It's remarkable that Mr. Capriles came within 235,000 votes in the official count given that Chávez had put out of business every independent radio and television broadcaster. Mr. Capriles was banned from all state media and most of the few private airwaves that still exist. That meant that he literally had to be seen in person to be heard. Mr. Maduro by contrast enjoyed hours of television appearances daily.

Mr. Capriles was also up against an army of Cuban functionaries on hand to defend their investment in their oil-rich political client. Havana, which gets at least $4 billion annually in subsidized oil from Venezuela, now runs all of the government's information systems and document control.

For years Chávez refused to allow a pre-election audit of the voter rolls, making it impossible to know how many non-citizens have voter ID cards. The government treasury doles out favors to political allies, and the state-owned oil company controls the fate of thousands of workers. Many Venezuelans have said that they don't believe the vote is secret.

Chávez built his political success on a cult of personality that Mr. Maduro isn't able to match. The protégé tried to play up the sympathy vote for Chávez, who died in March of cancer, even claiming that the dead dictator had appeared to him as a little bird.

But Mr. Maduro also had to defend Venezuela's sinking economy, which is plagued by corruption and an annual inflation rate of more than 30%. Oil prices have been falling, and the national currency, the bolivar, is trading at nearly four times less than its official rate. That's despite an official devaluation in March.

The close, contested vote means that even if he bullies his way into the presidential palace, Mr. Maduro is unlikely to have democratic legitimacy. Mr. Capriles is now a national symbol of resistance and on Monday he asked his supporters to go to the streets to protest the declaration of a Maduro victory.

The Cubans and chavistas are no doubt anticipating that their strongarm tactics will once again prevail, and that the protests will fizzle. And maybe they will. But sometimes countries have arisen in mass peaceful protests to reclaim their democracy when a dictator tries to steal it. That was the lesson of the Philippines in 1986 with Corazon Aquino, the Ukraine's Orange revolution in 2004, among others. The only way Venezuelans will end chavismo is with such a popular uprising.
Title: Venezuela: An Election That Reeks Of Fraud
Post by: captainccs on April 16, 2013, 08:06:03 AM
Venezuela: An Election That Reeks Of Fraud
Posted 04/15/2013 07:01 PM ET

Latin America: Venezuela's election on Sunday, which saw bus driver Nicolas Maduro declared the winner by a razor-thin margin, reeked of electoral fraud. Kudos to challenger Henrique Capriles for calling it out.

Fraud is a strong word but, yes, it's the clearest conclusion from Venezuela's election Sunday to pick a successor to the late socialist dictator Hugo Chavez.

Chavez's hand-picked successor "won" Venezuela's election Sunday, with what Chavez's anything-but impartial CNE electoral body declaring he'd gotten 50.6% of the vote, while his challenger, Miranda state governor Henrique Capriles Radonski garnered 49.07% — a gap of just 235,000 votes. That's suspicious right there, given the structural advantages and Chavez "sympathy votes" Maduro had yet couldn't turn into a victory.

Polls — every one of them — showed that Capriles had crossed over to a tie or lead in the last week of the campaign, while the size of his spirited million-strong rallies — the largest since 2002 — told the same story.

Capriles says he had enough evidence amid a stream of down-ballot irregularities — from Chavista motorcycle goons intimidating voters to ballot boxes strewn across the Barinas state — to believe he had won.

Yet Maduro, a wooden candidate almost totally lacking in charisma, somehow was the people's choice.

His angry victory speech threatening voters was an odd thing, given his razor-thin margin of victory and presumed need to unify the country to govern.

Obviously, he was trying to hold together his base, which in fact is crumbling as his Chavista political rivals now call for "self criticism." That's not a good sign.

What's more he wasn't able to buy votes this time. Banker Russ Dallen of BBO Financial Services in Caracas points out that amid the shambles of Venezuela's public finances, Maduro didn't even have cash to dole out goodies to buy votes.

Perhaps the biggest reality that can't be ignored is that Chavez's, and by extension Maduro's, socialist record is one of massive failure.

Venezuela, with the world's largest oil reserves, is deeply in debt, has 30% inflation, repeated currency devaluations, empty store shelves, capital controls, crumbling infrastructure, and the world's worst crime and corruption.

The only place we've seen comparable results has been in Mexico during the PRI "perfect dictatorship" era of Mario Vargas Llosa's description, where a losing candidate in a stacked election would win by a small margin instead of a big one to preserve credibility.

As we go to press, tanks have been dispatched to the streets of the middle-class district of Altimira in the capital, a sign of the instability that comes of an election with zero credibility that couldn't even be disguised by Chavez's corrupt Chicago-style political machine.

Capriles has called for a recount and the White House, to its credit, has asked for an audit. They're unlikely to happen, given that the game of the Chavista machine is to hold on to power at any price.

They'll hold onto power with military tanks as the facade of Venezuelan democracy crumbles.


http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/041513-651977-maduro-victory-in-venezuela-stinks-of-fraud.htm#ixzz2QddWYeO5

Title: Venezuelan rivals rally supporters, four people reported dead
Post by: captainccs on April 16, 2013, 09:36:00 AM
Venezuelan rivals rally supporters, four people reported dead
Reuters/Reuters - Supporters of opposition leader Henrique Capriles demonstrate for a recount of the votes in Sunday's election, in Caracas, April 15, 2013. REUTERS/Tomas Bravo

By Brian Ellsworth and Andrew Cawthorne

CARACAS (Reuters) - Violent clashes over Venezuela's disputed presidential election have killed four people, the state news agency said on Tuesday, as both sides in the stand-off planned rival demonstrations.

The deaths occurred when hundreds of protesters took to the streets in various parts of the capital, Caracas, and in other cities on Monday, blocking streets, burning tires and clashing with security forces, in some cases.

The AVN news agency said two people were killed in Miranda state, which includes part of Caracas, one in Tachira state on the border with Colombia, and another in western Zulia state. It gave no further details.

In one of the confrontations, police fired tear gas and rubber bullets in a running battle with masked, rock-wielding opposition supporters in a wealthy district of Caracas.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles is demanding a recount of the votes from Sunday's election after official results showed a narrow victory for ruling party candidate Nicolas Maduro, the acting president.

Capriles said his team's figures show that he won the election and he has called his supporters into the streets for peaceful demonstrations.

The National Electoral Council refused to hold a full recount, saying a 54 percent audit of the widely respected electronic vote system had already been carried out.

The election was triggered by the death of socialist leader Hugo Chavez last month after a two-year battle with cancer. He named Maduro as his successor before he died and his protege won the election with 50.8 percent of the vote against Capriles' 49.0 percent.

Both sides have urged their supporters to hold peaceful demonstrations nationwide on Tuesday, raising fears of more unrest in the oil-exporting nation of 29 million people, which has seen plenty of political turbulence in the last few decades.

"Imagine if I went crazy and called the people and armed forces onto the street? What would happen in this country? How many millions would pour onto the street?" Maduro said late on Monday, blaming Capriles for the violence.

"We're not going to do it. This country needs peace. Where are the opposition politicians who believe in democracy?"

The unrest in Caracas included demonstrations outside the offices of state television channel VTV and the home of the head of the election authority.

Capriles, the governor of Miranda state, hopes to highlight the weakness of Maduro's mandate and stir up opposition anger over his charge that the electoral council is biased in favor of the ruling Socialist Party.

The strategy could backfire if demonstrations turn into prolonged disturbances, such as those the opposition led between 2002 and 2004, which sometimes blocked roads for days with trash and burning tires and annoyed many Venezuelans.

A return to prolonged trouble in the streets could renew questions about the opposition's democratic credentials on the heels of their best showing in a presidential election, and just as Capriles has consolidated himself as its leader.

LEGAL MOVE AGAINST CAPRILES?

Senior government figures have raised the possibility of legal action against Capriles.

"Fascist Capriles, I will personally ensure you pay for the damage you are doing to our fatherland and people," National Assembly head Diosdado Cabello said on Twitter, requesting that state prosecutors open a criminal investigation.

But the opposition leader says he will fight on.

"We are not going to ignore the will of the people. We believe we won ... we want this problem resolved peacefully," Capriles told a news conference.

"There is no majority here, there are two halves." Opposition sources say their count showed Capriles won by more than 300,000 votes.

His team says it has evidence of some 3,200 election day irregularities, from voters using fake IDs to intimidation of volunteers at polling centers. It wants an exhaustive check of the paper-ballots printed at the time of casting a vote.

The focus of Monday's protests in the capital was the Plaza Altamira, which was often site of opposition demonstrations during Chavez's polarizing 14-year rule. Burned-out debris and glass lay strews on the ground on Tuesday morning.

"We will protest for as long as it takes. We will not give up the streets," said Carlos Cusumano, a 20-year-old student who took part in the protest.

Wearing T-shirts wrapped around their faces, some demonstrators threw sticks and stones at the ranks of police, who wore body armor and carried shields.

Maduro, who had initially said he was open to a recount, called on his supporters to demonstrate all week. The official results showed him winning by 265,000 votes.

"Maduro won and the people have proclaimed him," said dental technician Alicia Rodriguez, 38. "Learn to lose!" she added in reference to the opposition's stance.

The head of the electoral authority, Tibisay Lucena, shot down the opposition leader's call for a recount, saying "threats and intimidation" were not the way to appeal its decisions.

She also accused the U.S. government and Organization of American States of trying to meddle in Venezuelan affairs after they backed the idea of a vote audit.

The controversy over Venezuela's first presidential election without Chavez on the ballot in two decades raised doubts about the future of "Chavismo" - the late president's self-proclaimed socialist movement - without its towering and mercurial founder.

Chavez named Maduro as his heir in an emotional last public speech to the nation before his death, giving the former foreign minister and vice president a huge boost ahead of the vote.

But Maduro's double-digit lead in opinion polls evaporated in the final days as Capriles led an energetic campaign that mocked Maduro as a non-entity and focused voters on daily problems ranging from crime to inflation and creaking utilities.

Maduro's margin of victory raises the possibility he could face future challenges from rivals in the leftist coalition that united around Chavez, who won four presidential elections.

At his last election in October, the former soldier beat Capriles by 11 percentage points even though his battle with cancer had severely restricted his ability to campaign.

(Additional reporting by Diego Ore and Girish Gupta; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and David Storey)


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-rivals-rally-supporters-four-people-reported-dead-150350204.html

Title: Capriles blinked, we lose again
Post by: captainccs on April 17, 2013, 08:10:38 AM
Capriles blinked, we lose again

Capriles blinked first, we lose again. There is this incredibly naive belief that dictators can be dethroned by voting, history to the contrary. In 2002 I did a survey of the life expectancy of a number of well known dictators, from our very own Juan Vicente Gomez and including such notables as Mao, Hitler, Stalin, Franco, Oliveira Salazar, Castro, Saddam Hussein, Chapita (Rafael Trujillo) and a few others.

These were ousted or killed outright

Allende
Bishop
Chapita
Hitler
Noriega
Mussolini
Saddam

all but one (Chapita) was done in by a foreign power. These died of natural causes:

YearsName
1908-193527Juan Vicente Gomez
1924-195329Joe Stalin
1932-1968 (1970)36Antonio Oliveira Salazar
1938-197537Francisco Franco
1949-197627Mao Tse Tung
1959-? ? ?54Fidel Castro
1998-201315Hugo Chavez Frias

Based on these observation I forecast that Chavez would die of natural causes while still in power. i was spot on even if I didn't figure he'd go early victim of cancer. It's hard to tell this early if Maduro will grow into the job but so far he is playing the dictator perfectly. To stay in power you have to be ruthless and the other side has to blink, which it did.


Quote
Canceling the march “was a responsible thing to do because
you cannot win the battle when Maduro has all the guns and
tanks,” Dallen said in a phone interview from Caracas. “But
this is not the end of it at all.”

Not the end but another six years of Chavista dictatorship.

----------------------------------------------------------

Received by eamil:

Capriles Calls Off Protest After Venezuela Threatens Crackdown
2013-04-17 03:30:01.0 GMT
By Charlie Devereux and Corina Pons

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles Radonski took a step back from the brink of a mounting confrontation with the government by calling off a march planned for today to protest the results of the April 14 presidential election.

Capriles acted after Nicolas Maduro, proclaimed the winner by the national electoral council, vowed to come down with a “firm hand” on opposition supporters and seven people died in political violence, according to the public prosecutor. Capriles urged supporters to bang pots and pans at home to avoid violence. Maduro responded by telling his followers to drown out the protest with fireworks and music.

“We know that your agenda in the government is to try to get the country into a situation of confrontation and violence,” Capriles, 40, told reporters yesterday in Caracas. “Tomorrow we won’t mobilize.”

Tensions have escalated in Venezuela after a close result in an emergency election following the death of President Hugo Chavez March 5. While Capriles’ gesture averts the likelihood of bloodshed for now, Maduro’s response points to a protracted conflict, said Gregory Weeks, head of the department of political science at the University of North Carolina in Charlotte.

“This eases the tension, but I don’t know for how long,” Weeks, former director of Latin American studies at the university, said in a phone interview. Maduro’s response “is in many ways a provocation.”

Dollar Bonds

Venezuela’s dollar-denominated bonds fell the most in almost 15 years yesterday as traders anticipated political instability will undermine the economy. Inflation accelerated to 25 percent in March, the fastest official rate in the region. The central bank’s scarcity index, which measures the amount of goods that are out of stock in the market, rose to a record high of 20.4 percent in January.

Maduro will be sworn in on April 19 even as the opposition insists irregularities affected about 300,000 votes, enough to overturn the result. Capriles said he believed he had won the election and is ready to concede defeat if a recount confirms Maduro’s victory.

Maduro said he didn’t recognize Capriles as the governor of Miranda state. Capriles, who the electoral council said took 49 percent of the votes, temporarily stepped down as governor to run for president. Maduro won the race with 50.8 percent of the votes, the council said.

“I’m going to take legal measures, because you have violated the constitution and assassinated the people,” Maduro said, referring to the opposition leader, after the march was called off.

Nationwide Protests

The nationwide protests also left 61 injured and led to the arrest of 135 people, Public Prosecutor Luisa Ortega Diaz said. Opposition protesters have attacked health centers and local offices of the ruling socialist party, Maduro said.

“You won’t go to downtown Caracas to fill it with blood and death,” Maduro, 50, said yesterday in comments broadcast on state television. “This is a chronicle of a coup foretold.”

Capriles, in an interview with CNN’s Spanish-language channel yesterday, said “the government wants violence. We are calling for peace.”

In 2002, Chavez was overthrown for two days after opposition street protests in Caracas turned violent. A decade earlier, Chavez became a national figure by leading military rebels in a failed coup against President Carlos Andres Perez.

Protests should die down in the coming days or weeks after the march was canceled, said Francisco Rodriguez, senior Andean economist at Bank of America Corp. Rodriguez said he thinks Capriles doesn’t have enough evidence to overturn the result.

Busted Bonds

The country’s bonds due in 2027 dropped 6.89 cents to 91.22 cents on the dollar yesterday, the biggest decline since August 1998. The yield rose 95 basis points, or 0.95 percentage point, to 10.44 percent, the highest since November.

Bonds will continue to fall as the future of Venezuela remains unclear amid the political dispute and the potential of violence remains high, said Russell Dallen, the head trader at Caracas Capital Markets.

Caracas was flooded with music, fireworks and the sound of pots and pans being banged last night for more than an hour as supporters from both sides showed loyalty to their leaders.

Chavez, who tapped the world’s biggest oil reserves to reduce poverty, left the country polarized as he nationalized more than 1,000 companies or their assets and implemented currency and price controls that created food shortages and fueled inflation.

Canceling the march “was a responsible thing to do because you cannot win the battle when Maduro has all the guns and tanks,” Dallen said in a phone interview from Caracas. “But this is not the end of it at all.” 

Title: Now Maduro Blinked
Post by: captainccs on April 20, 2013, 06:35:05 PM
Venezuela is in total confusion. After the vote Capriles asked for a recount and Maduro accepted. Then Maduro did an about face. A couple of days later Maduro accepts an audit but the CNE, the election board does not go along and wants to send the mess to the supreme court, a bunch of hand picked Chavista judges.

The opposition is banging on pots and the Chavistas are firing unending barrages of fireworks. If there is an alien civilization near by, they will pick up planet Earth by our noise. I don't have a cue how this will end.

Historically tyrannical governments that don't let go of the iron grip are very hard to remove but at any sign of weakness they can quickly cave in. I mentioned the other day that was was coming was a game of chicken but tis is ridiculous. First Maduro blinks then about turns. Then Capriles takes a hard stand but blinks when threatened with violence. Now Maduro blinks again but the CNE takes a hard stand. How can anyone make heads or tails of it?

Yesterday Miguel had this to say:


Maduro Blinks, Recount Will Take Place » Madurosilla

Despite all the bravado, all the refusal to recount and even Luisa Estela’s opinion, the CNE spent a full nine hours yesterday discussing the possible recount and magically. an hour before UNASUR was to recognize Maduro but strongly request a recount, the CNE announced that the 46% of ballot boxes would be audited.

You have to realize that the other 54% was not 100% audited and that an audit is truly a recount, as votes, machines and voting notebooks have to match in detail.

So, what happened? Simply, Maduro was forced to blink. It was not only UNASUR, but also the Venezuelan military that exerted its pressure and force the acceptance of the recount that Maduro had backtracked on. And opposition radicals can claim what they want, but 46% is statistically VERY significant. Any discrepancy, any irregularity, any inconsistency will certainly come out in this audit.

Maduro may look really bad after this recount…

What Maduro and his cronies did not realize is how sensible a recount sounds no matter how partisan you may be. Thus, internationally, Maduro accepting the recount only to “recular” (go back) the next day, looked certainly suspicious to say the least.

For Capriles, this is a win-win situation. He knows the hundreds of irregularities in the voting and his team will focus on it. Any ballot box not present, any inconsistency and those votes will be subtracted from Maduro’s lead. Add Capriles 57,000 international votes and Maduro’s lead of 270,000 could easily melt into the 100,000 lead.

And make him look even weaker.

And what do you say at that point? If all irregularities add up to something significant, the road ahead could be quite difficult.What happens if Maduro’s lead is reduced to 100 thousand or even less? Do they audit the remainder votes?

Nobody knows…

But it could get tricky as soon as next week, when the audit begins and Capriles’ team asks for international observers and the CNE refuses them. Or Tibisay says in this audit no actual ballots will be counted. The road will not be easy or simple.

But I am told the military knows what happened in detail on April 14th.Thus, Maduro blinked, but not only because of UNASUR, but because the military knew what was happening on Sunday. The Government claimed all afternoon that Maduro was ahead by as much as 10%, only to announce a small (<2%) victory at the last minute and rushing the proclamation of Maduro, and event that has always taken two or three days to take place.

And the military is divided. Yes, they have opinions, but leadership, true leadership, is nowhere to be seen on either of the two sides. Or maybe they are afraid to show their true colors.

But in the meantime, Maduro blinks and backtracks, Tibisay goes back on her words and Luisa Estela is made to look like the obeying fool everyone knows she is.

The whole thing is more volatile than most people imagine. Maduro was weak, even if he won. But his performance since has weakened him even further, while many of his comrades wonder why Hugo picked Nicolas, if they are so much better than him.

Things could change so fast, that I can’t predict a month, let alone a year. And as I had suggested before the election, politics is a new game in Venezuela. Chavez dominated politics and the agenda for fourteen years, but Capriles has lead the first political fight of the post-Chavez ear and he seems to have won resoundly.

In fact, Maduro may want to sound tough, but in reality nobody fears him, after all, Capriles and others already made him blink…


http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/04/19/maduro-blinks-recount-will-take-place/

Title: Opposition, election body differ on Venezuela vote audit
Post by: captainccs on April 20, 2013, 09:38:47 PM
Opposition, election body differ on Venezuela vote audit
By Daniel Wallis and Deisy Buitrago | Reuters – 2 hrs 10 mins ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition and electoral authority expressed on Saturday widely differing expectations for an audit of the contested April 14 presidential election, a day after Nicolas Maduro was sworn in to succeed the late Hugo Chavez.

Opposition leader Henrique Capriles, who says there were thousands of irregularities, wants a manual recount of all ballots cast in the vote, but has accepted the electoral body's decision to carry out a more limited electronic audit.

That move by the National Electoral Council's (CNE), the night before Maduro's inauguration, helped calm tensions after the government said opposition-led protests killed eight people and both sides accused the other of potting more violence.

The opposition said on Saturday that the audit, which is expected to take a month, must examine all aspects of the vote.

Official results showed Maduro winning by less than 2 percentage points in a much closer race than had been expected for the presidency of the OPEC nation with the biggest oil reserves in the world.

"This is going to be a long process ... and our people have to stay alert," Carlos Ocariz, national director of Capriles' team, told a news conference. "We want to know the truth. Once we see what happened last Sunday, a new phase can begin."

Ocariz said an opinion poll showed a majority of Venezuelans supported the call for a manual vote-by-vote recount, a more comprehensive review than the authorities agreed to conduct.

He also denounced what he said were cases of state employees being persecuted over suspicions they voted for the opposition.

Meanwhile, the CNE sought to temper the hopes of Capriles supporters that the audit will produce a different outcome.

"We will not let something that aims to verify whether the system worked be turned into a sort of public impeachment that tries to question the results," CNE rector Sandra Oblitas told reporters at the council's headquarters.

"As always, when the CNE announces results to the country, it is because they are irreversible."

The body's president, Tibisay Lucena, has also cautioned against anyone raising "false expectations" from the audit.

On Thursday, the electoral authority said it would widen to 100 percent an audit of electronic votes from a previous audit on election day that reviewed 54 percent of the machines.

Venezuelans vote electronically, but the machines also print out paper receipts of each vote that are kept in boxes. The audit involves counting the paper ballots at some stations to ensure they are consistent with the machine-tallied results.

MADURO SWORN IN

Maduro, a burly former bus driver whom Chavez named as his preferred successor before dying from cancer last month, was sworn in on Friday at a ceremony in Caracas attended by heads of state including the leaders of Brazil, Argentina, Cuba and Iran.

In his first speech as president, Maduro paid homage to his late boss, and at times seemed to reach out to the opposition. "I'm ready to talk even with the devil," he said.

At other times, the 50-year-old revived his combative language from the campaign trail, condemning his rivals as fascists who wanted chaos and had tried to unseat him in a coup.

As well as welcoming high profile guests such as Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff to his inauguration, Maduro has also received the backing of South America's Unasur bloc of nations, whose leaders met in Peru the night before the ceremony.

Among the presidents who flew on to Venezuela after debating the post-election dispute was Argentina's Cristina Fernandez, who on Saturday visited the hilltop military museum in Caracas where the marble sarcophagus of her close friend and ally Chavez is on display.

"I felt a knot in my stomach and my eyes filled with tears," she said on Twitter, describing how loudspeakers in the museum played a recording of Chavez singing the national anthem.

Fernandez's vocal support for Maduro brought a sharp response from Capriles, who says Chavez frittered away Venezuelans' birthright by "gifting" oil revenue to political allies through subsidized fuel supplies and other aid.

"Has Argentina's president brought a check for the millions of dollars she owes the Venezuelan people?" he asked on Twitter.

"It is the people who funded Senora Cristina's election campaign ... To those who are visiting Venezuela and owe us, we ask you to PAY! Those resources belong to the people."

(Additional reporting by Pablo Garibian; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Paul Simao)

http://news.yahoo.com/opposition-election-body-differ-venezuela-vote-audit-022307880.html
Title: Analysis: Rough start to post-Chavez era augurs badly for Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 21, 2013, 04:51:09 AM
Analysis: Rough start to post-Chavez era augurs badly for Venezuela
By Andrew Cawthorne | Reuters – 6 hrs ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - About the only tranquil place in Caracas over the last few days is a hilltop military museum housing the remains of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez.

Visitors tip-toe around his marble sarcophagus, reprimanded by guards if their voices rise above whispers.

Outside, a shell-shocked nation is still reeling both from Chavez's death from cancer last month and a week of violence and recriminations over the disputed election to succeed him.

Nightly protests - government supporters launch fireworks, opponents bang pots and bans - have been shaking the capital Caracas and most other major cities in the South American nation of 29 million people.

The beginning of Venezuela's transition into the post-Chavez era could hardly have been more raucous or controversial.

The dispute over Chavez protégé Nicolas Maduro's narrow presidential vote win led to the deaths of at least eight people.

It has also deepened the near 50-50 split in a nation polarized by Chavez's socialist policies, shown the fragility of Maduro's grip on the "Chavismo" movement, and left a raft of fast-accruing economic and social problems on the back burner.

"If we're at war among ourselves, everyone suffers," said construction worker Elias Simancas, 61, sitting on a bench in a square where police clashed with masked and rock-throwing protesters during riots after last Sunday's vote.

"We just want a country in peace," he said, expressing an oft-repeated sentiment by the less vocal but majority voices on both sides of the country's political conflict.

As well as longing for some quiet and normality after 14 years in the global spotlight under Chavez, Venezuelans also want plenty more tangible things on their street corners.

First on their wish list is an end to murders, kidnappings and violent robberies that rival the world's worst crime spots and leave many Venezuelan towns and cities eerily quiet at night.

Beyond that, most Venezuelans of all political creeds want an end to runaway price rises, shortages of basic products, power cuts, potholes, cronyism in politics, and the insulting rhetoric between politically divided neighbors and families.

"I'm sick of it. I want out. How can I bring up kids in this country?" said Manuel Pereira, a 39-year-old businessman who has seen his electronics importing company collapse due to lack of access to foreign currency under government controls.

Debating Venezuela's future with middle-class friends on Saturday morning as their children held weekend soccer training - instead of a local league match, canceled due to the unrest - he said he was going to use his Spanish roots to try and emigrate this year.

CHAVEZ'S SHOES IMPOSSIBLE TO FILL

Just as during Chavez's two-year battle with cancer, his re-election last year, and his death on March 5, ideological disputes rather than grassroots issues fill the headlines and dominate government and opposition agendas.

Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles' decision to contest Maduro's election victory - by less than 2 percent, or 265,000 of nearly 15 million votes - uncorked passions and resentments built up during Chavez's rule.

The day after the election, Venezuela teetered on the edge of all-out crisis as pro-opposition hard-liners took to the streets in protests that turned violent and, according to the government, killed eight and injured many more.

Capriles publicly distanced himself from the bloodshed - blaming government instigators for the violence and accusing officials of exaggerating and exploiting the trouble - and called off a march in Caracas that may have turned violent.

The election board then agreed to audit the result, helping to take more heat out of the immediate situation.

Longer-term, the political standoff remains unresolved.

Though safely sworn-in, endorsed by his peers in South America and very unlikely to see his win overturned by the audit, Maduro cannot hide from some obvious conclusions after the vote.

Clearly he failed to replicate Chavez's popularity despite presenting himself as his devoted "son" and deploying much of the state apparatus at his service for an emotion-charged election just five weeks after Chavez's death.

Lacking the charisma and iron grip of his mentor, and with a weaker mandate at the polls, Maduro may now struggle to keep the ruling Socialist Party together given its competing interests and factions ranging from socialist ideologues to military chiefs and businessmen.

There have already been a handful of calls from within the movement for a period of soul-searching and for improving social services to win back the more than half-a-million 'Chavistas' who defected to Capriles during the election campaign.

"Let what needs correcting be corrected and what needs rectifying be rectified," said Foreign Minister Elias Jaua.

Furthermore, though Maduro condemns his opponents as "fascists" and "ultra-right," almost half of Venezuelans voted against him and question his legitimacy given opposition leaders' claims of thousands of irregularities on polling day.

Many Venezuelans are deeply frustrated that their OPEC nation is not doing better economically despite being rich in natural resources from abundant rivers for hydropower to the world's largest oil reserves.

OPPOSITION WAITING GAME

Opposition supporters are downhearted at having come so close to the prize but just missed out.

The Democratic Unity coalition is also a disparate and fragile mix of right- and left-wing parties and competing egos.

Capriles' surprisingly strong showing - most opinion polls before the vote had left him for dead - has cemented his standing as the undisputed opposition flag bearer and reduced the probability of what many had anticipated would be an opposition implosion after a comfortable Maduro win.

But Capriles faces public vilification by Maduro, possible legal charges against him over the violence, and a potential move to debar him from the governorship of Miranda state, where he is serving a second four-year term.

"They should get rid of him and find a proper democrat to run the opposition," said Andrea Lopez, a government supporter in Caracas' largest slum, Petare, saying Capriles should be put behind bars for the week's events.

"Some of my 'Chavista' neighbors even voted for him. They were deceived by his lies. Now they have seen the wolf in sheep's clothes. If he had won, we would have lost everything," she added, listing the health, education and other welfare projects that sprung up in her neighborhood under Chavez.

With Maduro in a tricky situation and the economy slowing, Capriles will likely look to consolidate an image as Venezuela's president-in-waiting.

"This is unfolding chapter by chapter," Capriles said. "The whole system is collapsing. It is a castle built on sand."

The awkward economic backdrop adds to Maduro's challenges, especially if the gloom-and-doom predictions of most Wall Street and private analysts are to be believed.

They see economic growth slowing from 5.6 percent in 2012 to perhaps half of that or even lower this year, inflation heading for 30 percent, bottlenecks in dollar supply for businesses, and shortages of basics from flour and sugar to medicine and tampons.

"Time is on the opposition's side as the economic and likely also political dynamics may contribute to weaken the government," said Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Ramos.

He predicts just 2.2 percent growth in 2013 and a minimum 25-percent currency devaluation in 2014 or earlier.

Balancing that, economic naysayers have exaggerated Venezuela's economic woes in the past, and the billions keep pouring in from the nation's oil production.

All the signs so far are that Maduro will stay faithful to Chavez's economic policies, including costly fiscal strategies to maintain and expand the social welfare "missions" that were the cornerstone of his late boss's popularity.

In the immediate aftermath of Chavez's death, Maduro, a burly former bus driver who became foreign minister, was seen in many quarters as an affable and experienced diplomat who could be a potential reformer and bridge-builder.

There was talk of possible free-market economic tweaking, rapprochement with the United States, dialogue with the opposition and amnesty for political prisoners.

But his need to imitate Chavez's rhetoric during the campaign, then the post-election dispute, have seen him looking every bit the hard-liner in public.

That may be exacerbated by his dependence on the support of tough-talking National Assembly head Diosdado Cabello, the country's second most powerful official, who had been seen as a candidate for the top job before Chavez gave his blessing to Maduro.

Cabello showed his teeth last week, banning opposition legislators from speaking unless they recognized Maduro's win.

"Capriles wants chaos," said Cabello, a former military comrade of Chavez who keeps strong ties with the security forces and is seen as the muscle in government behind Maduro.

"But we're not idiots! There is no weakness. We swear to defend Chavez's legacy."

(Additional reporting by Girish Gupta, Deisy Buitrago, Mario Naranjo, Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Daniel Wallis, Kieran Murray and Xavier Briand)


http://news.yahoo.com/analysis-rough-start-post-chavez-era-augurs-badly-050622851.html
Title: Lindsey Lohan scenario
Post by: captainccs on May 06, 2013, 12:01:15 PM
Good morning, I have attached our Report on Venezuela to this email, in which we cover the eventful first three weeks of the administration of Nicolas Maduro.  I call it the Lindsey Lohan scenario -- it's not as hot as it was (9 people were killed in election-related violence the first week), but it is still WAY out-of-control!

This weekend marks one month that my former Oppenheimer investment bank partner Johnny Pettus has been detained without bail in jail at the SEBIN secret police headquarters Heliocoide, when the government raided and closed down the Oppenheimer office in Caracas, along with simultaneously raiding Johnny's home for "illicit foreign currency trading." ( http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=737339 ).  I owned half the Oppenheimer investment bank franchise in Venezuela until mid-2007, when I sold my half to my then-partner Johnny.  Sadly, this may make that sale the best trade of my life.  In May of 2010, the government also raided our BBO offices in Caracas along with those of our largest competitor Econoinvest.  Though the government arrested no one from our office, 4 people from Econoinvest were held for 2 years and 7 months without ever being convicted before they were released on bail on the last day of December last year.  Their trial is still ongoing....

With that said, things continued to be Lindsey Lohan crazy in Caracas. Maduro's government arrested another American (Johnny is a US citizen as well), Tim Tracy, an actor and film-maker, and charged him as a spy.  Obama denied that this weekend, but Venezuela doubled-down on the charge.  I do not believe Tracy is a spy -- the closest he ever comes to working for the government is in an episode of the Geena Davis/Donald Sutherland series Commander-in-Chief when he plays a low-level White House administrative aide (you can watch the video here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=760043 , as well as the trailer for another movie called Senseless where he plays a gay boyfriend.  Given where he is, if the government or fellow prisoners believe either of these movies is reality, these two roles are probably not helpful).

Several clients have asked me for my thoughts on the Tracy incident.  Personally, I believe that the government arrested Tracy to get his videos.  He has been filming the conflicts and student movements against Chavez and now Maduro for most of last year. He has in depth interviews with the various student leaders as well as behind-the-scenes protest and fight footage.  If they got all his video, it was a treasure trove of information for the government.  As I have noted in this weekly email before, the students are the violent wild-card in this battle with the government.  http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/04/15/guest-post-venezuelans-wake-up-to-economic-realities/#axzz2SWWXHx5x

Shortly after Tracy's arrest, the Government used some of Tracy's footage to arrest Antonio Rivero, a retired General who had gone into Opposition against the government and even showed an edited version of some of Tracy's tape at the announcement following the arrest.

Then, the day before the opposing Capriles and Maduro May Day marches, 7 opposition deputies -- including a woman, beautiful svelte Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado -- were brutally attacked and beaten in the National Assembly.  The clash was a wake-up call, and march routes of the opposing camps were changed to avoid any further violence on May 1.  The Government then blamed the National Assembly attack on the Opposition lawmakers (in which no one from the government was injured, but left Machado and Borges with fractures) and made a tape to try (and badly fail) to prove it, complete with an ominous soundtrack from Call of Duty 4 (kid you not, you can Shazam it as it plays). (Government video is here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=13303&ArticleId=768218  and shots from cell phones that prove the Opposition delegates were attacked here http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=767095 ).

That would be enough for this missive for the week, but the week was still not over. The Opposition has dispatched members around Latin America to make their case for a recount (see my email from last week or request it again if you missed it) and expose the actions of the government.  Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez led a mission to Peru, where the Peru Foreign Minister is the UNASUR spokesman on the elections in Venezuela issue.  The Peruvian Foreign Minister Rafael Roncagliolo came out and said:

“Peru is promoting that Unasur pronounce itself in asking for dialogue and tolerance in Venezuela…the second element of the Unasur declaration consists in asking that there be in Venezuela a climate of dialogue and tolerance, request that we maintain, request that I reiterate," said Roncagliolo. "It seems fundamental to us for both Venezuelans and the region that such a climate of dialogue, tolerance and mutual respect can be established.”

In a knee-jerk response to that tame diplomatic statement, Maduro recalled the Venezuelan Ambassador to Peru, saying

 “You may be Peru’s Foreign Minister, but you can not give opinions about Venezuela. I do not accept that lack of respect towards the political process that Venezuela is living. I don’t accept it…But to involve yourself with Venezuela’s problems to give us advice, please, don’t," said Maduro. "You made a mistake Peruvian Foreign Minister, you have made the mistake of your life”

Then, in response to the recall of the Ambassador, the Vice President of the Congressional Foreign Affairs committee Lourdes Alcorta said that it was clear in Venezuela that there is no President, but that there is a monkey holding office who has stolen the powers of the people.  (Video here:  http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=769672 ).

Never a dull moment in this Telenovela!

Until next week's chapter, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance. (PDF attached).

                                                                                                                    -Russ


Received by email
Title: Venezuelan Bank Official Charged in U.S. With Two in Bribe Plot
Post by: captainccs on May 08, 2013, 06:22:49 AM
Venezuelan Bank Official Charged in U.S. With Two in Bribe Plot
Bob Van Voris and Patricia HurtadoMay 08, 2013 12:01 am ET

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- An official with Venezuela’s state- owned economic development bank directed its bond-trading business to a New York brokerage in exchange for bribes from two of its employees, U.S. prosecutors said.

Maria Gonzalez, 54, vice president of finance at Banco de Desarrollo Economico y Social de Venezuela, Tomas Alberto Clarke Bethancourt, 43, and Jose Alejandro Hurtado, 38, were charged in a criminal complaint unsealed yesterday in federal court in New York.

Prosecutors said Clarke was a senior vice president and Hurtado an employee in the Miami office of the brokerage, which was identified in a lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as Direct Access Partners LLC, or DAP.

“These latest charges certainly highlight the widespread corruption throughout the Venezuelan government and the immense sums of money available with no Venezuelan oversight,” Russ Dallen, head bond trader at Caracas Capital Markets, said yesterday in an e-mailed response to questions.

U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara in Manhattan said that the three defendants engaged in a conspiracy to pay bribes to Gonzalez in exchange for her directing the bank’s financial trading business to DAP. All three were arrested by agents with the Federal Bureau of Investigation on May 3 and presented in federal court in Miami on May 6.

Intermediary

The SEC said Hurtado, who lives in Miami, was the intermediary between DAP and Gonzalez. The Venezuelan government has a majority ownership interest in the bank, known as BANDES, and provided it with substantial funding, according to the SEC.

Henry Bell, a lawyer for Clarke, had no comment on the charges. Frank Rubino, who represents Hurtado, and Jane Moscowitz, a lawyer for Gonzalez, didn’t immediately return phone messages yesterday seeking comment on the allegations.

Phone calls to DAP’s offices yesterday after regular business hours weren’t answered.

From April 2009 through June 2010, Clarke, Hurtado and Gonzalez participated in a conspiracy in which Gonzalez directed trading business which she controlled to DAP and in return, agents and employees of the broker-dealer split the more than $60 million in mark-ups and mark-downs from trading with BANDES, the U.S. alleged.

Split Commissions

Clarke and Hurtado allegedly devised a scheme with Gonzalez to split commissions which BANDES paid the broker-dealer, and the government said Gonzalez received monthly kickbacks from DAP and its employees which prosecutors said “were frequently in the six-figure amounts.”

Gonzalez, who was in charge of overseas trading for BANDES, made at least $3.6 million in kickbacks from the scheme according to prosecutors. In exchange, Gonzalez allegedly directed bank business to DAP. Hurtado and his wife made millions from DAP in salary, bonuses and finder’s fees in connection with the BANDES business, prosecutors said. Millions more went to a foreign entity controlled by Clarke, which then transferred some of the money to a Swiss account for Gonzalez’s benefit, according to the government.

In addition to generating money on mark-ups and mark-downs, Clarke caused DAP in January 2010 buy and sell the same bonds for BANDES on the same day.

“The result of such trades was that BANDES was left with the same bond holdings as before the trades, except that it had paid the broker-dealer approximately $10.5 million in mark-ups in the course of the two round-trip transactions,” the U.S. government said in its complaint.

Wife, Relative

The SEC’s lawsuit against Clarke and Hurtado includes as defendants Haydee Leticia Pabon, 33, who is Hurtado’s wife, and Iuri Rodolfo Bethancourt, 40, a resident of Panama. According to the SEC, Clarke and Bethancourt are “apparent relatives.”

Bharara’s office yesterday filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit seeking control of bank accounts used in the alleged scheme and Miami-area properties that Hurtado allegedly bought with his proceeds.

“The defendants’ arrests lay bare a web of bribery and corruption in which employees of a U.S. broker-dealer allegedly generated tens of millions of dollars through transactions in order to fund kickbacks to a Venezuelan government official in exchange for her directing the Venezuelan economic development bank’s financial trading business to their employer,” Bharara said yesterday in a statement. “The defendants also engaged in international money laundering to carry out their corrupt scheme.”

Charges

A BANDES press official, who declined to be identified because of bank policy, declined to comment on the charges. An official in Venezuela’s finance ministry, who declined to be identified because of ministry policy, also declined to comment. A representative of the Information Ministry, who couldn’t be identified because of ministry policy, declined to comment.

Gonzalez is charged with conspiracy to violate the Travel Act, violation of the Travel Act, money laundering and money laundering conspiracy. Clarke and Hurtado are each charged with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, violation of the FCPA, Conspiracy to violate the Travel Act, violation of the Travel Act, money laundering and money laundering conspiracy.

The money laundering and money laundering conspiracy charges carry maximum prison terms of 20 years.

The case is U.S. v. Clarke, 13-mag-00683, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). The SEC case is Securities and Exchange Commission v. Bethancourt, 13- cv-03074, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York.

--With assistance from Nathan Crooks in Caracas and Joshua Gallu in Washington. Editors: Michael Hytha, Peter Blumberg


http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-MMG3TS6S972D01-69H9N3AN7OB7HBKH6RMMSPND4K

Title: Opposition Challenges Results In Over Five Thousand Ballot Boxes
Post by: captainccs on May 08, 2013, 09:47:14 AM
Opposition Challenges Results In Over Five Thousand Ballot Boxes
May 8, 2013

As you may have noticed, I have been traveling the last few days. But my friends keep me informed by sending all sorts of information which I read and file, but was not thinking of posting. Then yesterday I got the note on the second challenge to the April 14th. vote and thought I would mention it.
The opposition is challenging the results in 5,720 tables or boxes, which comprise 21,562 tallies. Each table challenged includes some form of irregularity which is documented in the challenge. The opposition is requesting that the vote be redone in all these, which comprises of 2.3 million votes.
Separately, the fingerprint analysis shows a large number of inconsistencies. But the most significant one is that 20% of he voters had no fingerprint on file, including over four hundred thousand new voters, all of which were supposed to have their prints on file.
 
This challenge to the election votes is separate from the first one, which was based on irregularities associated with violations of the electoral laws,such as assisted voting, propaganda and abuses, not with the details of the voting process and the results. Both include recusing those magistrates that have expressed an opinion on the case or are related to Government officials.
 
http://devilsexcrement.com/2013/05/08/opposition-challenges-results-in-over-five-thousand-ballot-boxes/

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 08, 2013, 03:16:45 PM
Denny:

Any chance of this getting some traction?
Title: ¿Traction?
Post by: captainccs on May 08, 2013, 03:41:07 PM
Crafty Dog:

I don't know. The fact that the opposition is still at it and has not run for Costa Rica or some other safe haven like the previous opposition leaders did is a good sign. They need the backing of international bodies.

Time will tell.
Title: WSJ: Why Venezuela offers Snowden asylyum
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 08, 2013, 07:58:56 AM
Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to Snowden
President Nicólas Maduro sends a message of his loyalty to Iran.

    By
    MARY ANASTASIA O'GRADY



Edward Snowden, the former U.S. government contractor wanted for leaking sensitive national intelligence, is a victim of "persecution" by "the world's most powerful empire," Venezuelan President Nicólas Maduro said on Friday.

Mr. Maduro offered asylum to the fugitive, who was running out of prospects. Nicaragua and Bolivia have chimed in with similar offers. What plans are afoot to spirit Mr. Snowden from his Moscow airport sanctuary—assuming he accepts refuge in Latin America—are of course secret.



(L to R) presidents of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro; from Argentina, Cristina Fernández; from Bolivia, Evo Morales, and from Ecuador, Rafael Correa.

Mr. Maduro would have us believe that his gesture is a demonstration of Venezuela's commitment to free speech and its fierce opposition to withholding information from the public. He also wants the world to know that he disapproves of secret government intelligence-gathering operations. Funny that.

Venezuela has expressed no such righteous indignation about information suppression by allies. Take Argentina, which has recently refused to allow its special prosecutor Alberto Nisman to travel to Washington and brief a U.S. congressional committee about intelligence collected on Iranian and Hezbollah terror cells in the Western Hemisphere. Mr. Nisman's 500-page report on the subject is public but in a July 1 letter to the U.S. Congress he said that by order of the Argentine attorney general he has been "denied the authorization to testify before the honorable parliament."

Mr. Maduro's lack of concern about Argentina's information suppression deserves attention.

His offer of refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to distract Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic grind and get them to rally around the flag by putting a thumb in Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else.

Venezuela has reason to fear increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent. This makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a leader as committed to the anti-American cause as was his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, who had a strong personal bond with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place in South American politics.

Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a message to the world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement with Caracas last month, post-Chávez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation deteriorates, Mr. Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an even more loyal geopolitical ally and strategic partner of Russia and Iran.

Mr. Maduro's presidency is still viewed as illegitimate by roughly half of the Venezuelan electorate, who voted for challenger Henrique Capriles in April. The official rate of the currency known as the "strong bolívar" is 6.3 to the dollar. But a shortage of greenbacks has forced importers into the black market where the currency trades at somewhere between 31 and 37. There are price controls on just about everything, producing shortages of food and medicine. Even so, inflation is now hovering at around 35%, which means that some vendors are skirting government mandates.

In a free society with competitive elections, economic chaos generally prompts a government response designed to mitigate hardship. Venezuela needs liberalization. But that would threaten the profits of the military, which is largely running the country. When the nation ran out of toilet paper in the spring, it was the perfect metaphor for the failed state. But Mr. Maduro's foreign minister, Elias Jaua, responded by scolding Venezuelans for materialism, asking, "Do you want a fatherland or toilet paper?"

If the government is saying that it doesn't give a damn about the economic death spiral, this is because it believes it has the nation in a head lock. State control of information—by a president who has now become the world's foremost defender of Mr. Snowden—is almost complete. The last large independent cable television station was finally sold in April and the independent print media market is shrinking.

Another tool of repression, which Mr. Snowden supposedly abhors, is the ability to spy on citizens. Chávez had no compunction about recording the conversations of adversaries, and the practice continues under Mr. Maduro. Competing factions inside the government may even be getting into the act. Two recent high-profile cases—one involving a well-known government insider alleging crimes by members of the government in a conversation with the Cuban military, and another targeting an opposition politician—have increased the feeling among citizens that there is no such thing as a private conversation.

Yet even a government that locks down the press and spies on its own citizens without answering for it needs allies. No nation can survive in full isolation, especially when its economic power collapses.

Latin despots get this. Argentina is depositing goodwill in its account with Iran by blocking Alberto Nisman's trip to Washington. Venezuela, by offering refuge to Edward Snowden, is undoubtedly making a similar offering to the enemies of its enemies.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 19, 2013, 10:09:51 AM
Just as the Soviet Union suffered something like 75 years of “bad weather” on its farms following the revolution, much the same is happening in tropical Venezuela:

    U.S. Rice Farmers Cash in on Venezuelan Socialism: U.S. Exporters Benefit as Production Falls in Latin American Country

    STUTTGART, Ark.—Steve Orlicek, a rice farmer here, is living the American dream. He owns a thriving business; he vacations in the Bahamas.

    His good fortune springs from many roots, including an unlikely one: He is a prime beneficiary of the socialist economic policies of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s late president and critic of what he called U.S. “imperialism.”

    It is a paradoxical legacy of Mr. Chávez’s self-styled socialist revolution that his policies became a moneymaker for the capitalist systems he deplored. During his 14 years in power, he nationalized large farms, redistributed land and controlled food prices as part of a strategy to help the poor. But these policies turned Venezuela from a net exporter to a net importer of rice—from farmers like Mr. Orlicek. “The rice industry has been very good to us,” Mr. Orlicek said, sitting in his newly renovated home, appointed with a baby grand piano played by his wife, Phyllis.

    It isn’t just rice. Production of steel, sugar and many other goods has fallen in Venezuela, leading to occasional shortages. Until recently, Venezuela was largely self-sufficient in beef and coffee. Now it imports both.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/another-epic-fail-for-socialism.php
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323681904578640291651501034.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 19, 2013, 10:36:57 AM
Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded — here and there, now and then — are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.
 
This is known as “bad luck.”-Robert A. Heinlein





Just as the Soviet Union suffered something like 75 years of “bad weather” on its farms following the revolution, much the same is happening in tropical Venezuela:

    U.S. Rice Farmers Cash in on Venezuelan Socialism: U.S. Exporters Benefit as Production Falls in Latin American Country

    STUTTGART, Ark.—Steve Orlicek, a rice farmer here, is living the American dream. He owns a thriving business; he vacations in the Bahamas.

    His good fortune springs from many roots, including an unlikely one: He is a prime beneficiary of the socialist economic policies of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela’s late president and critic of what he called U.S. “imperialism.”

    It is a paradoxical legacy of Mr. Chávez’s self-styled socialist revolution that his policies became a moneymaker for the capitalist systems he deplored. During his 14 years in power, he nationalized large farms, redistributed land and controlled food prices as part of a strategy to help the poor. But these policies turned Venezuela from a net exporter to a net importer of rice—from farmers like Mr. Orlicek. “The rice industry has been very good to us,” Mr. Orlicek said, sitting in his newly renovated home, appointed with a baby grand piano played by his wife, Phyllis.

    It isn’t just rice. Production of steel, sugar and many other goods has fallen in Venezuela, leading to occasional shortages. Until recently, Venezuela was largely self-sufficient in beef and coffee. Now it imports both.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/08/another-epic-fail-for-socialism.php
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323681904578640291651501034.html
Title: WSJ: Venezuela inflation
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2013, 05:54:14 AM
Hyperinflation and political witch hunts seem to go together. Just ask the Venezuelan opposition.

With the bolivarcollapsing and prices spiraling higher, the government alleged this month that its No. 1 adversary, former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, is linked to a prostitution ring that was using minors in the state of Miranda, where he is governor.

Lest that not be enough to turn Venezuela's socially conservative working-classes against the popular Mr. Capriles, a leading congressman from the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) used gutter talk on the floor of the national assembly to accuse the governor of homosexuality.
Related Video

Does the collapsing “bolivar fuerte” really make opposition politicians more sinful? Photo: Associated Press

Don't suppose for a minute that this mudslinging is merely about destroying Mr. Capriles. The ruling chavistas, led by President Nicolás Maduro, need a circus because there is no bread—and that's not a metaphor. At times in Venezuela, there really is no bread. Earlier this year there was, for a time, no toilet paper. Mr. Maduro knows he is in trouble.

The "proof" of the allegations against Mr. Capriles's chief of staff, who is accused of running the sex ring, cannot be shown to the public, according to Mr. Maduro. He says that the "videos and photos" that the government confiscated in a raid are of "un-publishable orgies." Venezuelans will have to use their imaginations while trusting the courts—now controlled by the military government—and the government itself to get to the bottom of it all. Developments will be reported on television, which is almost exclusively state-controlled and where most Venezuelans get their news.

Mr. Capriles has said that the allegations are an attempt to distract the population from the real problems in the country. The charges are certainly well timed. An official 46% devaluation in April took the bolivar-to-dollar exchange rate to 6.3 from 4.3. Those who actually need dollars are unlikely to get them at that rate. Instead they have to go to the black market, where one greenback costs as much as 38 bolivars, up from 22 in March.

The government forecasts that inflation will hit 40% this year. But Johns Hopkins University economist Steve Hanke, director of the Cato Institute's Troubled Currency Project, says that the soaring cost for the bolivarin the market translates into an implied annual inflation rate of more than 250%.

Earlier this month Caracas-based economist José Manuel Puente described the perfect storm to the Los Angeles Times this way: "The slowdown in economic growth, high and persistent inflation and high levels of scarcities [of basic foodstuffs] will combine to make Venezuela's the worst-performing economy on the continent, despite the extraordinary oil boom that the country is still benefiting from."

Enlarge Image
image
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European Pressphoto Agency

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro

A mid-July survey by the Venezuelan polling company IVAD, posted on the website lapatilla.com, suggests Mr. Maduro is having no luck dodging the blame like his predecessor Hugo Chávez did so deftly. Asked what are the principal problems facing the country, almost 82% of respondents named crime. More than 53% also pointed to shortages. The scarcity is caused by the price controls that the government is using to try to hold down inflation. Those controls could explain why only 31% named "the high cost of living."

But more than 65% said the economic situation was worse or much worse than one year ago, and more than half blamed either the national government or Mr. Maduro for the country's problems.

Because the allegations against Mr. Capriles by the PSUV included a pejorative term for a homosexual, gay-rights groups took offense. But Venezuela's homosexuals needn't feel special. Hate speech as a political tool has been common practice in Venezuela's military government for more than a decade. Catholics, Jews, entrepreneurs and the bourgeoisie have all been on the receiving end.

Mr. Maduro, coached as he is by Fidel Castro, immediately recognized that gay rights are a priority for many members of the international left. So in the aftermath of the impolitic comments by his colleague in Congress, he quickly seized a gay-pride flag to wave while he continued his verbal assaults against Mr. Capriles.

Political nonconformists regularly singled out by chavista politicians for ridicule and acrimony won't get off so easily. This week Mr. Maduro is expected to try again to force through congress an "enabling law" that will allow him to rule by decree.

Opposition Congressman Richard Mardo has already been stripped of his congressional immunity and is slated for trial on corruption charges. Other opponents are being investigated. The Venezuelan daily El Nacional reported this month that more than one third of congressional sessions in the first half of the year were spent "harassing the opposition," including with physical violence.

The goal is to drum up mass hysteria against opponents. Apparently Mr. Maduro has decided that if inflation cannot be contained, Mr. Capriles and his allies will be
Title: Venezuela Expels Top US Diplomat, 2 Others
Post by: captainccs on October 01, 2013, 03:42:43 AM
Maduro went to China hoping to get a $5 billion loan but returned empty handed. At home things continue to deteriorate, recently we have had various blackouts, the dollar is sky high, over the last few months we have had the highest inflation rate I remember. The outcome is the expected one, blame the empire! What an asshole!



(VIDEO) Venezuela Expels Top US Diplomat, 2 Others (VIDEO)
Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro says they were meeting with the country's "right wing" saying “Out of Venezuela! Yankee, go home! Enough with the abuse!”


CARACAS - Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro announced the expulsion of 3 US diplomats during a live speech to Venezuela soldiers commemorating 200 years since the day when Atanasio Girardot died fighting for Venezuela's independence.

(http://www.laht.com/Photos/Venezuela/2013/1309/Nicolas%20Maduro%20-%2055.jpg)

Maduro asked Foreign Minister Elias Jaua to expel the 3 US diplomats, giving them 48 hours to leave the country.

Maduro accused the 3 US diplomats of meeting with the country's "right wing" to plan economic and electricital system sabotage.

“We have sufficient evidence collected of the hostile, illegal and interventionist attitude of the officials,” Maduro said. “Out of Venezuela. Yankee, go home! Enough with the abuse.”

He did not provide any evidence but identified the diplomats as Kelly Keiderling, who is the charge d'affaires and the top US diplomat in the country, Elizabeth Hunderland and David Mutt. The U.S. Embassy says it has not yet been officially informed of the expulsions.

Keiderling has been the US Deputy Chief of Mission and Chargé d’Affaires since July 2011. She joined the State Department in 1988 and has had a long and varied list of appointments, including in Ethiopia, Zambia, Botswana, Kyrgyzstan, Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Back in Washington, she has served as Senior Panama Desk Officer in the Office of Central American Affairs, Public Diplomacy Desk Officer for the Caribbean, Acting Deputy Director of Central American Affairs, and Chief of Staff of the Iraq Office.

Venezuela has been plagued by electricity shortages as well as shortages of water and basic foodstuffs despite having the largest known oil reserves in the world.

Venezuela-watchers point out that Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez, who died in March, often blame the US "imperialist gringos" for the country's problems, despite being in power for over 15 years.

On that theme, the leader of the Opposition, Miranda Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski, tweeted that "Nobody believes the alerts from Miraflores. Pure smoke to cover that he cannot run the country! Maduro has no plan for the country and does not know how to solve the problems facing our people!"

Capriles narrowly lost a controversial and disputed special election to Maduro in April in the wake of the death of Chavez.


The last time Venezuela expelled U.S. diplomats was on March 5, when it ejected two military attaches on similar allegations. That move came several hours before Maduro announced that longtime President Hugo Chavez had died of cancer.

Despite the fact that the US is the largest customer for Venezuela oil and Venezuela is the fifth largest supplier of oil to the US, the two countries have not had ambassadors in each others countries since former Venezuela President Hugo Chavez expelled US Ambassador Patrick Duddy in 2008 in "solidarity with Bolivia" and failed to approve his nominated successor in 2010.

The US reciprocated by expelling Venezuela Ambassador to the US Bernardo Alvarez after Chavez publicly said that Venezuela would reject the newly designated US Ambassador Larry Palmer in late December 2010.

“I don’t care what actions Barack Obama’s government may take," Maduro told the soldiers today. "We’re not going to allow an imperial government to bring money and see how they shut down the basic industries, how they turn off electricity to black out all Venezuela. What is that?”

Maduro called on national soldiers and all those who feel proud of belonging to the fatherland set free by Simon Bolivar to "continue hoisting the flag of independence, revolution and socialism."

"I'm so proud of having the homeland we have, we should be so proud of feeling and being Venezuelans and continue raising the flag of independence here," Maduro said.

"An independent Venezuela endured difficulties, betrayal, defeats, painful losses as that of Atanasio Girardot, setbacks, hesitation, but its flag was always raised, there was someone to raise it and feel proud of it," Maduro stressed. "Soldiers, we only have our life to give it to our Republic, if necessary, to keep it alive, for independence to be strengthened."

Atanasio Girardot (May 2, 1791 – September 30, 1813) was a Latin American revolutionary leader who fought beside Simón Bolívar in the Campaña Admirable and other battles. He died during the Battle of Bárbula, trying to plant the republican flag on Bárbula Hill.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvXznVxAV9Q&feature=player_embedded
[/youtube]

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1049644&CategoryId=10717
Title: Venezuela: Expelling Bad and Playboy Too
Post by: captainccs on October 01, 2013, 06:15:52 AM
Received by email"


From: "RUSS DALLEN (BBO FINANCIAL SERVIC)" <rdallen1@bloomberg.net>
Date: October 1, 2013 8:27:12 AM GMT-04:30
Subject: Venezuela: Expelling Bad and Playboy Too
Reply-To: "RUSS DALLEN" <rdallen1@bloomberg.net>


Good morning,


Well, it's October 1 and we now know how the Third Quarter of 2013 ends, how Breaking Bad ends, and how the Federal Government ends.  And after yesterday's expulsion of 3 US diplomats by Venezuela, including the top US diplomat in Caracas -- who was just a Deputy Chief of Mission, since the Ambassador had already been expelled, along with a host of others -- we now know how the Venezuela relationship with the US ends.  Last one out of the US Embassy in Caracas please turn out the lights.

The last time Venezuela expelled U.S. diplomats was on March 5, when it ejected two US military attaches. Despite the fact that the US is the largest customer for Venezuela oil and Venezuela is the fifth largest supplier of oil to the US, the two countries have not had ambassadors in each others countries since former Venezuela President Hugo Chavez expelled US Ambassador Patrick Duddy in 2008 in "solidarity with Bolivia" and then failed to approve his nominated successor in 2010.  The US reciprocated by expelling Venezuela Ambassador to the US Bernardo Alvarez the day after Chavez publicly said that Venezuela would reject the newly designated US Ambassador Larry Palmer in late December 2010.

We can expect that the Venezuelan charge d'affaires in Washington, Calixto Ortega, will be back in Caracas by the end of the week in the tit-for-tat strategy that the State Department has for dealing with the nettlesome Venezuelans.
 
And to say that the reason for the expulsions was wafer-thin is to insult wafer-makers all over the world:  Maduro said it was because they were meeting with the "right wing" and making "economic war" on Venezuela and "sabotaging the electrical grid."  He said he had evidence, but of course, did not provide any.  Straight out of the Cuban playbook, which seems to be more of a one-pager these days than an actual binder.   Sadly, this is all circus in this Bread and Circus satire, as there is not enough bread to go around as shortages and inflation continue ravaging the Venezuela economy.  http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1049644&CategoryId=10717
 
Speaking of expulsions, you may remember Tim Tracy, the US film-maker/actor who got arrested, jailed and held as a US spy by Maduro back in April before being expelled in June.
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=760043

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/u-s-helmer-jailed-in-venezuela-moved-to-notorious-prison-1200490807/
http://www.laht.com/article.asp?CategoryId=10717&ArticleId=797837
I spent several hours with Tim last week, chatting about his ordeal (in Miami, not Caracas, for obvious reasons).   He is busy working on his documentary and showed me a bit of what he has so far, which was pretty interesting and which he hopes to enter into the Sundance Film Festival.  This month's Playboy has a piece on his adventure titled "Inside El Rodeo", which is one of Venezuela's most notorious prisons where he ended up. Now you have an excuse to really read it for the articles!
http://www.playboy.com/playground/view/tim-tracy-filmmaker-venezuela-prison
 
I have attached our latest Weekly Report on Venezuela (attached pdf), in which we cover the continuing travails of the economy, including going into further analysis of the Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro's China trip and more.
 
As always, please don't hesitate to let me know if we can be of any assistance. (PDF attached).

-Russ

P.S. By the way, you can make sure that you get these and other Latin headlines (including the best Picture and Cartoon of the day) delivered to your email inbox FREE every morning by signing up for headlines from the Latin American Herald Tribune. Sign up here: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=381843&CategoryId=35316
You can also join our 100,000 followers on Twitter to get real-time headlines: @lahtonline

And on Facebook by friending us at: http://facebook.com/LatinAmericanHeraldTribune
Russell M Dallen Jr
Managing Partner
Caracas Capital Markets
Title: About ExPatria
Post by: captainccs on October 01, 2013, 07:46:18 AM
ExPatria

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hN9AFCzwuSI[/youtube]
Title: U.S. defends diplomats expelled from Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on October 01, 2013, 02:49:48 PM
U.S. defends diplomats expelled from Venezuela

By Brian Ellsworth and Deisy Buitrago | Reuters – 3 hrs ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - The U.S. Embassy in Venezuela on Tuesday defended three diplomats expelled by President Nicolas Maduro, rejecting charges they were involved in espionage and accusations Washington is trying to destabilize the OPEC nation.

In the latest spat between the ideological foes, Maduro on Monday ordered out three U.S. diplomats including Kelly Keiderling, temporarily in charge of the mission.

He alleged they had been meeting with "right wing" opposition leaders and encouraging acts of sabotage against the South American nation's electricity grid and economy.

The expulsions throw a wrench into cautious efforts this year to restore full diplomatic ties that were frayed for most of the 14-year rule of late socialist leader Hugo Chavez.

The U.S. government was evaluating its response and may take reciprocal action in accordance with the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations, a statement from the embassy said.

"We completely reject the Venezuelan government's allegations of U.S. government involvement in any type of conspiracy to destabilize the Venezuelan government," it added.

"We likewise reject the specific claims against the three members of our embassy."

In an address to the nation, Maduro repeated his accusations on Tuesday, saying the three Americans had been handing over money and stirring up plots in southeastern Bolivar state.

"You can see the hand of the gringo conspiracy ... they talk of a Benghazi," Maduro said, referring to the cradle of revolt against late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Maduro showed a video of the three in a special TV broadcast all local channels were obliged to show live.

To a backdrop of dramatic music, the video showed images of diplomatic vehicles, a flight manifest and the three diplomats entering and departing what appeared to be offices of pro-opposition groups in Bolivar.

"Until the U.S. government understands it has to respect Venezuela as a sovereign nation, quite simply there will be no cordial relations, nor cordial communications," Maduro said.

The U.S. Embassy statement said the diplomats were in Bolivar state on entirely "normal" business.

"We maintain regular contacts across the Venezuelan political spectrum," it said.

"This is what diplomats do. Venezuelan diplomats in the United States similarly meet with a broad range of representatives of our society."

Maduro, who is Chavez's successor and part of a Latin American leftist alliance including Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Ecuador, named a new acting head of Venezuela's U.S. diplomatic mission shortly after his April election.

Many took that as a sign of warming relations.

That official may now face expulsion in the tit-for-tat style retaliation that has characterized similar incidents in the past.

Chavez in 2008 expelled Ambassador Patrick Duddy over what he called Washington's involvement in violent protests in Bolivia. In 2010, he blocked the nomination of diplomat Larry Palmer over comments that there were "clear ties" between members of Chavez's government and leftist Colombian rebels.

Venezuela's opposition says Maduro is continuing a Chavez-era tactic of inflating and inventing diplomatic crises to distract attention from economic and social problems affecting the nation's 29 million people.

(Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Cynthia Osterman)

http://news.yahoo.com/u-defends-diplomats-expelled-venezuela-165321484.html


Title: Maduro repeals law of gravity
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 15, 2013, 06:50:18 PM

Summary

At a time of furious rhetoric surrounding the "economic war" in Venezuela, the government has demonstrated its willingness to upset the public order. According to reports, Venezuelan officials arrested dozens of people accused of economic speculation in an economic crackdown targeting retail stores across the country. Security officials have inspected 1,400 stores over the past week, and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Nov. 14 that 100 people have been arrested in the process. Reports are conflicting and suggest that some of those in custody may be accused of looting. At least 50 in custody are accused of speculation and usury, according to Miguel Rodriguez Torres, the minister of interior relations, justice and peace. Maduro recognizes the dangers of the current course but has decided to forge ahead to show that he is in control.
Analysis

The Venezuelan government has tried before to rein in prices, but this is by far the most invasive effort, particularly if the reports of arrests are true. Former President Hugo Chavez implemented a system of indexation to control prices on a range of goods early in his administration. More recently, in 2011 Chavez established the Superintendency of Costs and Prices in an attempt to control prices all along the supply chain. Despite these efforts, prices have continued to rise and scarcities of basic goods are a constant reality for Venezuelans. On its current trajectory, inflation will reach 50-60 percent by the end of the year, up from an average annual rate of 30 percent in previous years.

Security forces have been used periodically to enforce price controls, but the ongoing crackdown is unprecedented. Some storeowners have refused to open their stores, according to local news reports, and others are lowering prices pre-emptively to avoid government sanctions. In at least one case, an entire electronics store was looted under the supervision of the National Guard. According to one local nongovernmental organization, there were 39 attempted lootings between Nov. 9 and Nov. 12, nine of which were successful.

Venezuelan Government Seizes Electronics Stores

Maduro's long-term goal in this process is to force retailers to adhere to a new policy of establishing profit margins of 15-30 percent. The government-proposed formula will take into account a range of factors, including whether retailers are importing goods based on the official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars to the dollar or whether they are using the black market, which has reached more than 60 bolivars to the dollar. The new calculations would theoretically also take into account other costs, including taxes and overhead, to try to ensure a fair profit margin while reining in inflation.

However, it is very unlikely that the government will be able to implement an effective system of price controls in every retail sector in the country. If nothing else, the new system will create a range of opportunities for graft and speculation and will push goods onto the black market.

At the same time that the government is cracking down on retailers, the National Commission on Telecommunications has opened investigations into Internet service providers hosting websites providing information on the black market currency trading rate. The government is accusing the websites -- which include Dolar Today, TuCadivi and Lechuga Verde, among others -- of disrupting the peace and tranquility of the Venezuelan public.

Controlling information about the black market could help control the plummeting exchange, but it, too, is highly unlikely to succeed. Despite Venezuela's large volume of oil exports, the country is experiencing a serious cash crunch, and central bank reserves have fallen to $21 billion. Independent estimates put just over $1 billion of that in cash and the rest in gold.

There is no question that Venezuela has seen many instances of price speculation and corruption that have affected prices of goods or exploited the distorted currency markets for profit. However, the government's ability to determine which retailers are exploiting the system and which are scraping by is suspect, and there is a real danger that this crackdown will put many out of business, potentially worsening the country's scarcity problems. Even more concerning is the precedent of government-supported looting of stores that are thought to be gouging prices. The situation could spin out of control quickly.

Maduro realizes the risks of the current approach. The crackdown, as well as efforts to pass the enabling law, seems to be his attempt to prove that he is in control. Maduro faces a divided political base and is struggling to gain the respect and standing of his predecessor. He and his allies appear to have chosen to push forward with the economic policies of Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution.

Read more: Venezuela: Maduro's Gamble to Fight Inflation | Stratfor

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on November 18, 2013, 11:14:30 AM
Maduro hasn't a chance of curbing inflation just as all the presidents who predated him since the oil embargo didn't. If you get a huge amount of money from oil and you give it to people to spend but curb production in the name of ideology or other failed economic policy you get too much money chasing too few good, the perfect recipe for inflation.

Maduro's new policy of clamping down on retailers is nothing new. I was an Apple reseller when Black Friday hit in 1983 when all this mess started, or when the mess got out of hand. I was forced to sell my old inventory at old prices. I could charge
Bs. 10,000 for an Apple II but the new ones cost me Bs.14,000. Quite simply the government stole my working capital and my business went broke. What Maduro is doing in 2013 was already done in 1983 (30 years and they learned nothing).

Denny Schlesinger



Viernes Negro (Venezuela)
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viernes_Negro_(Venezuela)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on November 18, 2013, 11:43:22 AM
Hugo Obama has us not far behind you...
Title: Iran, Russia, Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2013, 08:47:58 PM
Check out the comments from about 02:00 until the end:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mf0LGPCfpw
Title: WSJ: Things getting ugly in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 17, 2014, 04:36:02 AM


Updated Feb. 16, 2014 9:18 p.m. ET

It's getting ugly in Venezuela. Three people were killed in anti-government protests on the streets of Caracas on Wednesday. The killers haven't been identified, but Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro is using the deaths to justify a government crackdown on growing civic unrest directed at his leadership and a deteriorating economy.

Mr. Maduro was Hugo Chávez's hand-picked successor, and one of Chávez's Cuban-influenced legacies was politicizing the armed forces and the police and developing an informal militia that still roams cities and towns on motorcycles to intimidate political opponents. Today, Caracas is one of the most dangerous cities in the world.

Chávez also strangled independent television and radio outlets. On Wednesday the government blocked the signal of NTN television based in Bogota, Colombia. The only independent media left are newspapers, but the central bank won't sell them the dollars they need to import newsprint and they too are trying to survive.

The Venezuelan economy is in a downward spiral. The central bank admits an annual inflation rate of 56%, though it's probably much higher, and there is a shortage of foreign exchange. The bank's "scarcity index" reports that 28% of basic food stuffs are unavailable. Hospitals are running out of medicines and supplies and can't get dollars to import more. Inventories of car batteries and spare parts are run down and cannot be replenished. Last week Toyota 7203.TO -0.34% and General Motors GM +2.13% announced they would shutter assembly plants indefinitely, because without dollars they can't import manufacturing components. An estimated 12,000 jobs are affected.

In November, using a simple majority in the national assembly, Mr. Maduro won the power to rule by decree for a year. Now his hand is getting heavier. On Wednesday he blasted the organizers of anti-government protests as "coup-plotters." He also announced a prohibition on street demonstrations, closing down the last public space for dissent. Arrest warrants went out for at least two Maduro adversaries.

The opposition has vowed it won't surrender its right to gather in public spaces. The big question now is whether all the armed forces would follow a Maduro order to move against a big anti-government protest. Some likely would. Venezuela is also thick with Cuban intelligence operatives who trained the armed and dangerous militia. They are now calling the shots in Caracas as much as Mr. Maduro is, and the latest unrest is becoming another excuse to increase repression.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 17, 2014, 05:01:48 AM
Quote
The killers haven't been identified,

Yes, they have. they were recorded on amateur video tape.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmHEEO_MpII[/youtube]

(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/bgoipiscaaas0vl.jpg?w=380&h=416)


While Government Tries To Blame Lopez For Deaths, Paper Shows Otherwise
February 16, 2014

Ever since last Wednesday’s student March which left two dead, the Government has tried to say that former Presidential candidate Leopoldo Lopez and Congresswoman Maria Corina Machado, who led the protest, were responsible for the the deaths right after the demonstration ended. But, usually pro-Government paper Ultimas Noticias, has done an extraordinary investigation of videos and pictures and what it has found is a carefully orchestrated withdrawal of the police, which were replaced by Intelligence police officers and plainclothesmen, who were wearing and used guns against running students.Having guns near a demonstration is illegal, Government officers murdering people at a demonstration is a crime against humanity by them and their superiors.

What this investigation shows is the power of the smartphone, as the evidence came mostly from amateur tapings (note that one of them, the person making the video is hiding under a car)

Here is the text and the video

and here is a summary of the text for those that do not speak Spanish. I recommend watching the video (at the end) after reading the text:

“It was at 3:13 PM when Bassil Alejandro Dacosta fell. The line of fire was in the hands of individuals identified with unirforms, plates and vehicles of the Bolivarain Intelligence Service (Sebin) accompanied by others dressed as civilians. They had taken over between the Tracabordo and the Ferrenquin corners of La Candelaria, after the Bolivarain National Police withdrew its troops

Here is the reconstruction: A group of students tries to go up from Monroy to Tracabordo. The march was over. Those left were screaming at police. They advanced towards a Sebin motorcycle, knocking it to the ground. The Sebin and civilians move forward and start shooting pistols rifles. The students withdraw. Others, among which was Bassil Dacosta, cross to a lateral street. It is not clear why they decide to trun around 12 seconds later, they cross the line of fire. Dacosta falls. At no point does the shooting stop.

Dacosta is the next to last of  a line of students that crosses trying to escape the bullets. His buddies pick him up and carry him away”

Witneeses say the corner ahd been taken over by men and women in motorcycles, like “those you see in TV”. All dressed as civilains. Some with helmets and t-shirts. Some with their faces covered. They were shooting at the protesters in the Monroy corner. “They would shoot with their arms out and then hide”. In the wall of a City office there are at least 10 tarces of bullet impacts.

The civilians talked to the Sebin officers and withdrew. Sebin officers occupied their places.

At the head of the group came a  Kawasaki Versys 1000 motorcycle with another large guy with kaki shirt and jeans with a short wave radio in his hand. He seems to be the leader. After Dacosta falls, he gestures towards a man in gray camouflage clothes.

At the instant of Dacosta’s death a photographic sequence shows at least seven men wielding their weapons. Five are shooting standing up, one is shooting in the air and four are shooting at the protesters. Two wear uniforms.

One of them wears a white shirt, green military pants, helmet and blck lenses, He moves in a motorcycle with official palate 2-177. The other wears a long sleeved black shirt, jeans and black shows. No helmet or glasses. The civialisn were acting in coordination with those in uniform.

One of the shooters picks up the motorcycle overthrown by the students. Two pick up the shells from the bullets, they get on their motorcycles and leave.

Questions: Maduro said those responsible had been identified, a day later the scientific police was still studying the scene?

Why did the National withdraw from the scene?

Why were weapons used to repress the protest?

Why were there civilians with uniformed Sebin officers repressing the march?

From the video: Why did the motorcycles easily cross between the students and the police?

Why did the guy jump over the police only to be seen shooting later?”

Here is the video:


Here are a few pictures of the guy in white from three different angles, one of them while shooting:



Meanwhile the investigative police last night went to Leopoldo Lopez’ parents’ home and his home reportedly to arrest him, in part for being responsible for the death of Dacosta. . He was not there. Maduro called him a coward for not turning himself in.

Tonight Lopez distributes this video, upping the ante in these protests calling for a march to the Prosecutors office to demand a number of things and to turn himself in for crimes he has not committed. He is asking everyone to wear white, as a sign that this is a peaceful movement.


For the Government this represents a quandary. Jailing Lopez will only ignite things even more, but it was Maduro who accused him of crimes, nobody knows specifically which ones. Will the Prosecutor obey Maduro and jail Lopez? Will a Judge sign the order to capture him?

Can the Prosecutor accuse Lopez while Ultimas Noticias has shown clear evidence that it was police and civilians in official motorcyles who were shooting at that instant at the students. Will they go after those responsible for Dacostas’s death?

It is certainly an interesting week to be here.

Note added at 9:21 PM Sunday Feb. 16th. : This work is having an effect, President Maduro said tonight on nationwide TV that he had order all Sebin officers to stay at their barracks!!!


http://devilsexcrement.com/2014/02/16/while-government-tries-to-blame-lopez-for-deaths-paper-shows-otherwise/
Title: Una voz por Venezuela ante Associated Press
Post by: captainccs on February 17, 2014, 06:35:26 AM
Una voz por Venezuela ante Associated Press

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDdOFRdQ5jc[/youtube]
Title: Censorship vs. Social Media
Post by: captainccs on February 18, 2014, 07:35:24 AM
The press is heavily censored in Venezuela and the only way to get the real news is through social media like Twitter. Here is a sampler of the popular protest ongoing at this time that will not be reported by the press (pictures):

Protesta de estudiante en este momento frente en la defensoria del pueblo (https://twitter.com/anderxavier3/status/435460617768427520/photo/1)

Intentan Impedirnos el paso señores (https://twitter.com/belycar89/status/435776081216286720/photo/1)

Aaahh. Pa esto si hay funcionarios a patadas Pero para el Hampa NO. (https://twitter.com/rcadavieco/status/435778634591514624/photo/1)

Fuerte despliegue de la GNB y PNB en Chacaíto (Fotos) (https://twitter.com/superconfirmado/status/435773479023943681/photo/1)

9:41 am. Sigue llegando gente a la Plaza Brion de Chacaito a pesar del piquete de la PNB (https://twitter.com/AleLopezR/status/435780355447332864/photo/1)

9:02 am La ballena y equipos Antimotin ya están en chacaito, dicen no permitirán la concentración (https://twitter.com/360UCV/status/435769151827611648/photo/1)


Denny Schlesinger

Title: It's all about the Benjamins.
Post by: captainccs on February 18, 2014, 07:37:26 AM
Received via email:


Good morning,

In the immortal words of the artist formerly known as Puff Daddy, "It's all about the Benjamins."

In this week's weekly report on Venezuela (attached PDF), we cover the protests racking Venezuela, as rampant crime, an inflation rate officially over 56%, a bolivar currency that is virtually unconvertible (except in the black market where it has fallen to a fourth of its value in one year after falling to a third of its value the year before), and widespread shortages of everything from bread, flour and meat to toilet paper drive people out into the streets.

At the same time, the protestors are being put-down by well-armed state security forces and since the domestic television industry is now totally dominated and controlled by the Government, there is very little live coverage being reported.  As I noted in a mid-week update to you last week, Colombian TV station NTN24 and CNN en Espanol have stepped up their coverage in that deficit, in addition to social media reports, pictures and video on Facebook and Twitter.  Not happy that their "communicational hegemony" was being overcome,  the Venezuela government took NTN24 off the air in Venezuela and blocked its internet feed.  And learning from the failures of dictators in the Arab Spring, Venezuela even blocked Twitter -- which Twitter confirmed last week.  In comparison to trusted news sources, the problem that we are also finding with new media like Twitter and Facebook is the reliability of the posts:  while some of the information is good and current, other people put up old video and pictures, and some can be doctored, which confuses things and hurts its believability (the mistakes of which the government points out).

I spent some time on the weekend news shows talking about what is going on in Venezuela -- which has just kicked out 3 more American diplomats (third time in a year!).  China, which has loaned Venezuela over $40 billion, is especially interested in what is going on there and you can see my interview on China's dominant broadcaster CCTV here: http://laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1620461&CategoryId=10718 

But in the end, many of the problems -- the inflation, the shortages, the crime, the collapsing currency -- are all about the Benjamins (as in Benjamin Franklin who appears on the $100 bill).  After the first of the larger size SICAD sales of $220 million was cancelled earlier this month, Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro promised the next one would be for $440 million. He lied, as only $216 million was announced on Friday (and the paper starved newspaper industry -- one of the last few outlets for opposition viewpoints -- was given nothing).

Here is the problem.

When oil prices crashed in late 2008 and into 2009, Chavez hit the capital markets to fund his spending.  Beginning in May of 2009 (when they also expropriated and nationalized the oil service providers they could not pay), Venezuela and PDVSA began issuing massive amounts of US dollar bonds, for a 5 year total of $46.3 billion in new dollar debt, mostly at high interest rates (these are just bonds and does not include the $40 billion in loans from the China), essentially doubling the country's indebtedness.

Interest payments on those bonds are paid semi-annually (every six months) and this month alone Venezuela will pay out $732.5 million in coupon payments on its dollar bond debt -- which is essentially one week's worth of Venezuela oil exports, assuming 1.3 million barrels a day in real cash oil exports.

Throw in 4 weekly SICAD distributions of $220 million a week for $880 million and you are down another week of oil export earnings. That doesn't include the $80-90 million that CADIVI was providing weekly at 6.3, for another half a week of earnings.  In the end, that doesn't leave much for paying the airlines the over $3.3 billion they are now owed, paying food companies the $2.43 billion they are owed, much less the billions owed to oil partners and service providers, workers, government employees, to say nothing of bread, chicken, flour or toilet paper.

It's all about the Benjamins -- or the lack thereof.

As always, please don't hesitate to let me know if you would like to speak further or if we can be of any assistance. The PDF of the weekly is attached, which touches on more of the these issues, or you can read it here online: http://www.scribd.com/doc/207729464/Venezuela-Report-18-February-2014

Thanks again for your continued readership and business.

                                                                                                              -Russ
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 18, 2014, 03:06:22 PM
How do you live, invest or run a business in an annual inflation rate of 56%("probably much higher")?  At what point does it just spiral into nonsense...

Why aren't we more careful to manage our own economy when we know the consequences of mis-management are so real?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on February 18, 2014, 03:16:33 PM

"Why aren't we more careful to manage our own economy when we know the consequences of mis-management are so real?"

Who is this "we" you are speaking of?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on February 18, 2014, 03:27:58 PM
Doug wrote:
"Why aren't we more careful to manage our own economy when we know the consequences of mis-management are so real?"
GM asked:
Who is this "we" you are speaking of?
I respond:
 :lol:
Title: Beauty queen the latest victim in Venezuela unrest
Post by: captainccs on February 19, 2014, 04:55:30 PM
There is an ongoing protest about two blocks from my house


Beauty queen the latest victim in Venezuela unrest

 By Tomas Sarmiento and Deisy Buitrago

14 minutes ago

CARACAS (Reuters) - A local beauty queen died of a gunshot wound on Wednesday in the fifth fatality from Venezuela's political unrest, as imprisoned protest leader Leopoldo Lopez urged supporters to keep fighting for the departure of the socialist government.

Tensions have risen in Venezuela since Lopez, a 42-year-old Harvard-educated economist, turned himself in to troops on Tuesday after spearheading three weeks of often rowdy protests against President Nicolas Maduro's government.

The latest included college student and model Genesis Carmona, 22, who was shot in the head at a protest on Tuesday in the central city of Valencia. She died later in a clinic.

"How long are we going to live like this? How long do we have to tolerate this pressure, with them killing us?" a relative, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.

"She only needed one more semester to graduate," he added of Carmona, who had been studying tourism and had won the 2013 Miss Tourism competition in her state.

Three people were shot dead in Caracas after an opposition rally a week ago, and a fourth person died after being run over by a car during a demonstration in the coastal town of Carupano. There have been scores of arrests and injuries.

State TV channel VTV said the mother of one its employees died while being rushed to hospital in Caracas. VTV said she suffered a heart attack while the ambulance carrying her was stuck in gridlock due to opposition supporters blocking roads.

'LET'S FIGHT'

Lopez has urged his supporters to keep fighting for the departure of Maduro's socialist administration.

"Today more than ever, our cause has to be the exit of this government," he said, sitting by his wife in a pre-recorded video that was to be released in the event he was jailed. (http://t.co/uJGiXVm0AV)

"The exit from this disaster, the exit of this group of people who have kidnapped the future of Venezuelans is in your hands. Let's fight. I will be doing so."

There was sporadic trouble across Venezuela again on Wednesday. Rival groups scuffled outside the Caracas court where Lopez was due, while student demonstrators also blocked a highway in the capital, burning trash.

In western Tachira state, security forces and protesters fought in the streets for about two hours, with two students injured, various vehicles damaged or destroyed, and local monuments charred, witnesses said.

In southern Puerto Ordaz city, pro- and anti-government marchers fought in the street, witnesses said, with police firing teargas to quell the trouble.

Three government supporters were injured in the melee when shots were fired, and both sides faced off with sticks and stones, the witnesses said.

The demonstrators are calling for Maduro's resignation over issues ranging from inflation and violent crime to corruption and product shortages.

Maduro, who was narrowly elected last year to replace Hugo Chavez after his death from cancer, says Lopez and others in league with the U.S. government are seeking a coup.

Street protests were the backdrop to a short-lived ouster of Chavez for 36 hours in 2002, before military loyalists and supporters helped bring him back.

Though tens of thousands joined Lopez on the streets when he turned himself in on Tuesday, the protests have so far been much smaller than the wave of demonstrations a decade ago.

Neither is there any evidence that the military, which was the decisive factor in the 2002 overthrow, may turn on Maduro now.

'FREE LEOPOLDO!'

Lopez was being held on Wednesday at the Ramo Verde jail in Caracas, and was due at a first court hearing.

Hundreds of his supporters waved banners saying "Free Leopoldo!" in the city center on Wednesday as a line of soldiers stood in front with riot shields. "We're prepared to give our lives," said pensioner Juan Marquez, 68.

Police held back a rival demonstration by several hundred 'Chavistas', some of them striking the protesters and chanting "Leopoldo, off to Tocoron" in a reference to a notoriously overcrowded provincial jail.

In an intriguing twist to the drama, Maduro said his powerful Congress head Diosdado Cabello, seen by many Venezuelans as a potential rival to the president, personally negotiated Lopez's surrender via his parents.

Cabello even helped drive him to custody in his own car given the risks to Lopez's life from extremists, Maduro said.

With local TV providing minimal live coverage of the street unrest, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook have become the go-to media for many Venezuelans desperate for information.

However, many social media users are indiscriminately tweeting images without confirming their origin, leading to manipulation and gaffes including footage of unrest in Egypt and Chile being passed off as repression in Venezuela.

Old photos from past protests are also doing the rounds.

Detractors call Lopez a dangerous and self-serving hothead. He has frequently squabbled with fellow opposition leaders, and was involved in the 2002 coup, even helping arrest a minister.

"I've hardly been in office for 10 months and for 10 months this opposition has been plotting to kill me, topple me," Maduro said. "For how long is the right wing going to hurt the nation?"

Though the majority of demonstrators have been peaceful, a radical fringe have been attacking police, blocking roads and vandalizing buildings. Rights groups say the police response has been excessive, and some detainees say they were tortured.

In a nation split largely down the middle on political lines, 'Chavistas' have stayed loyal to Maduro despite unflattering comparisons with his famously charismatic predecessor. Many Venezuelans fear the loss of popular, oil-funded welfare programs should the socialists lose power.

(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne and Diego Ore in Caracas; Javier Farias in Tachira; German Dam in Puerto Ordaz; Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Ken Wills)


http://news.yahoo.com/beauty-queen-latest-victim-venezuela-unrest-003036908.html


Title: In Venezuela Opposition Leader Leopoldo Lopez Turns Himself In
Post by: captainccs on February 19, 2014, 05:18:38 PM
This is from yesterday, I didn't get a chance to post it earlier.

The reason I find it significant is because Leopoldo Lopez turned himself in. Previous "opposition leaders," facing similar situations, went into hiding or exile leaving the opposition leaderless. This could evolve into making Lopez the true leader of the opposition, something that until now has ben sorely lacking.


In Venezuela Opposition Leader Leopoldo Lopez Turns Himself In

February 18, 2014

It was certainly a day to remember. Despite the Government banning the opposition march and prohibiting marches, Leopoldo Lopez turned himself in in a demonstration which was simply massive. His handover was perfectly choreographed, leaving images that have a highly emotional content and guaranteeing that this day, whatever may happen was a victory for the Voluntad Popular leader.

I mean, there are very few things missing from a picture like this one:

(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/bgx-qwtigaaenb5.jpg?w=494&h=329)

Lopez being pushed into the National Guard tank, white flowers in one hand, flag in the other and screaming at his supporters. Really, can it get any more dramatic than this?

And this was after Lopez had given a fiery speech to his supporters hanging on the statue of Jose Marti in Plaza Brion of Chacaito at the end of which his wife was lifted up by the crowd to say goodbye to him right before he turned himself in. How can anyone not be moved by this image?:

(http://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/bgyfox-iyaax5qk.jpg?w=494&h=744)

And it was Lopez who, from the inside of the military vehicle, used a megaphone to ask people to move aside to let the vehicle through. Lopez was calma calm and at times it seemed as if the guardsman taking him looked more scared than he did.

And the show of support was nationwide, as students organized protests in all major cities, all of them with huge crowds, all ending at the Palaces of Justice of each State with the students handing in their demands.

I went to the march, leaving somewhat late, but was surprised when a couple of Kilometers away from the march, the street was still full of people walking towards Chacaito. And when I got to Chacaito it became difficult to get through because it was so crowded. Once in the intersection with the main Country Club Avenue, I was surprised by the sea of people coming down from that direction. It turns out it was the people from the West of Caracas, who, because the march was not allowed beyond Chacaito, had to come via Libertador Avenue to where Lopez turned himself in. From there, we turned South towards Las Mercedes, went under the Autopista and then climbed back on it, only to find that the students had not only blocked it, but occupied it all the way to the Cienpies Distributor. There were people everywhere, in front, below, above. And there was lots of police and guardsman, but they they were clearly given the order to do nothing, despite our fears that we could be gassed any minute.

This is an overall picture from above, two blocks away from where Leopoldo Lopez turned himself in:

[Lots of pictures in the original post: http://devilsexcrement.com/2014/02/18/in-venezuela-opposition-leader-leopoldo-lopez-turns-himself/]

And at this time, 7:37 PM , students are still out in the streets blocking the way

I am still surprised the Government went ahead and jailed Lopez. To accuse him of being a terrorist, when there are pictures showing that it was the Government’s intelligence police who shot the students on Feb. 12th. is somewhat dumb. By jailing him, not only does he become a martyr, elevating his stature within the opposition, but also creating another political prisoner and another reason for the students to fight.

Maduro also loses credibility, when it was him that suggested Lopez was responsible for the deaths of the students, not the Prosecutor, raising doubts, once again, abut the separation of powers in Venezuela. To make matters even worse, it was the Head of the National Assembly, Diodado Cabello, who took Lopez to his arraignment. What is Cabello doing there? He does not belong to any of the braches of Government that should be involved. The Government later said it was to protect Lopez’ life from the “right wing”, a silly excuse, more so, given that Lopez is also labelled as “right wing”.

Because while all this was going one, Maduro was holding his own march, despite his ban on demonstrations, where he said Lopez was being taken directly to jail (Ughh?) by helicopter, showing the President does not even understand legal procedures. In his speech, Maduro rambled, attaching President Piñera of Chile and Santos of Colombia, for involving themselves in Venezuelan affairs.

But more importantly, you just don’t go jail an opposition leader like Lopez on trumped up charges, without raising suspicions that this is simply autocracy at work. Lopez now becomes a hot potato for Maduro: Keep him in jail he becomes a symbol, release him, you look weak (and somewhat dumb!). He will actually be charged with murder, a silly charge if there ever was one.

Lopez seems to have scored a victory sooner than he thought when he started going out to try to gather the protests under his wing. Even Capriles went to the demonstration, as all opposition politicians showed up at the demonstration to show their support.

For now, the students remain on their own, a random band of disorganized protesters that have kept the Government in check for ten days. They will not go easily away and now they have one more prisoner to defend.


http://devilsexcrement.com/2014/02/18/in-venezuela-opposition-leader-leopoldo-lopez-turns-himself/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 20, 2014, 08:11:04 AM
It is inspiring to see that many of the popular uprisings across the globe, Ukraine, Iran 2009-2010 and Venezuela in this case, are in a pro-freedom and anti-oppressive government direction.

Once again, wishing you the best and wishing there was something we could do to help.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 20, 2014, 08:35:26 AM
Thanks!

Send in the cavalry!    :-D
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 20, 2014, 08:41:06 AM
With our current CiC you could not be sure in who's favor they would be riding.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on February 20, 2014, 09:12:14 AM
With our current CiC you could not be sure in who's favor they would be riding.


Good point.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 21, 2014, 06:39:01 AM
http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/02/20/the-game-changed/  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFS6cP9auDc

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 22, 2014, 03:55:11 PM

Summary

Venezuelans gathered in the streets in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, Feb. 22, in the third major protest in 10 days. Demonstrations are ongoing in Caracas and throughout the country, including in San Cristobal, Valencia and Maracaibo. The list of grievances is long, but there is no single unifying theme behind the protests beyond a staunch rejection of the status quo in Venezuela. The country's leadership appears to be holding on, but it is showing signs of stress.

Analysis

The high-velocity Venezuelan rumor mill is filled with reports that Cuban troops have arrived in the country to help manage the protests, but such rumors are sketchy at best. Several photos of Venezuelan-owned Shaanxi Y-8 aircraft with troops offloading have been published in social media. The first such image was posted Feb. 16, and the most recent may show troop movements as recently as Feb. 21. The photos show the troops carrying substantial baggage, as if prepared for a long stay. There is nothing in the photos that clearly indicates that the soldiers are Cuban as opposed to Venezuelan, but the arrival of Cubans to aid the Venezuelans would not be out of the realm of expectation. The two militaries cooperate closely, and Cuba maintains a strong interest in the stability of the Venezuelan regime.
Venezuela's Protests Could Mark a Turning Point

What is clear at this point is that though the unrest is generally loosely organized, anger is widespread and intense enough to mobilize a broad swath of Venezuelans. But in a country as polarized as Venezuela, even the continuous appearance of tens of thousands of protesters is not a clear indication of widespread loss of support. The base of voters who supported the election of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in many cases have little in common with the opposition, and most have benefited in some way from the redistributive policies of the populist government. So these protests in no way prove that the government has lost control. Nonetheless, the persistence of the unrest could cause problems that cannot be dismissed.

Scarcity of basic goods is already a major challenge in Venezuela, and where protesters are disrupting traffic, delivery of essentials could be further threatened. Although acts of vandalism have been widespread, they have mostly targeted subcritical government-owned assets such as vehicles, stores and regional offices. Venezuelan protesters have not yet attempted to take over government buildings. Major infrastructure disruptions have been limited to road and highway blockages, including one on the Francisco Fajardo Highway in Caracas. Most of Venezuela's energy infrastructure is located far from the major urban centers and unlikely to be disrupted by regular protests.

Military deployments have so far been limited to San Cristobal, a city where the opposition managed to significantly disrupt commerce and transport. If the geographic spread or violence of the protests increases and the police and national guard become stretched thin, further military deployments could deemed necessary.

Still, the Venezuelan government is showing signs of stress. Maduro has blamed the U.S. government for sponsoring the protests, yet he has also called on U.S. President Barack Obama to send a high-level emissary to negotiate with the Venezuelans in order to end the crisis. Such a negotiation seems unlikely, since the United States has thus far attempted to refrain from public intervention in Venezuela's internal affairs. The Catholic Church has offered to negotiate, but there has not been a sign that it will be allowed to do so.

At this point, the crisis does not seem to have reached a critical peak, and the protests seem likely to intensify going forward. The government likely will not reach a breaking point until parts of Maduro's support base join the protests. However, the fact that essentially none of the issues that sparked the protests have been addressed indicates that Venezuela may be headed in that direction.

Read more: Venezuela: Mass Protests Continue to Intensify | Stratfor

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 25, 2014, 06:15:51 AM
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/2014/02/24/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on February 25, 2014, 07:44:01 AM
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/2014/02/24/

Heh.
Title: Venezuela on the brink of civil war
Post by: captainccs on March 06, 2014, 12:56:55 PM
Not since 2002 has there been so much political violence on the streets. Back then it was led by the PDVSA employees upset that Chavez had fired their CEO. Later Chavez said he did it to incite them to have an excuse to fire them which he did. This time around the protest is much more grass roots, led by students. Back then threatened opposition leaders quickly went to exile. Now they are staying and defying the state to arrest them. Back then the protest were peaceful. Now there are burning barricades. Back then the Chavista militia were called Circulos Bolivarianos, now they are called "colectivos," the same armed thugs on state supplied motorcycles. When they fire on protesters the Bolivarian police and the Bolivarian national guard just watch. Venezuelans never lose their sense of humor.

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/las3desgracias.jpg)

Today the violence was at a high point. Even though the press is censored there are plenty news and pictures on Twitter. Today every citizen with a cell phone is a reporter. If you follow me on Twitter @captainccs you'll get to see a lot of them. I retweet them as often as I can.

Follow @captainccs (https://twitter.com/intent/follow?original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fsoftwaretimes.com%2F&region=follow_link&screen_name=captainccs&tw_p=followbutton&variant=2.0)
Title: 2 dead as Venezuelans clash at protest barricades
Post by: captainccs on March 06, 2014, 06:54:55 PM
There is another report of the same news by Reuters and it says the exact opposite of what happened. Not strange at all. Reuters published doctored photos during the Israeli Palestinian confrontations to show Israelis to be baby murderers. Don't ever trust Reuters, they are highly biased.


2 dead as Venezuelans clash at protest barricades

 By JORGE RUEDA and EZEQUIEL ABIU LOPEZ

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — A National Guardsman and a civilian were killed Thursday as gangs of government supporters on motorcycles rode into east Caracas neighborhoods to remove street barricades placed by opposition protesters.

The pitched battle in a mixed industrial and residential district heightened tensions on the same day the Venezuelan government expelled foreign diplomats for the second time in a month.

More than 100 men on motorcycles carrying pipes and rocks swarmed Los Ruices in the incident, trying to force their way into some buildings. Residents screamed "murderers, murderers" from rooftops and the motorcyclists taunted them from below, urging them to come down and fight.

Venezuelans fed up with food shortages and unchecked violence have been staging nearly daily street protests since mid-February, snarling traffic with barricades of garbage, furniture and burning tires. At least 21 people have been killed in related violence, by government count, in the country's worst unrest in years.

President Nicolas Maduro's administration shows no signs of crumbling from several weeks of nearly daily demonstrations, but the country appears in a stalemate. Protesters are mostly from the middle and upper classes although they do include poorer Venezuelans who don't protest in their home districts for fear of pro-government paramilitaries.

Sucre Mayor Carlos Ocariz said residents of Los Ruices reported hearing gunshots after motorcyclists began dismantling the barricades. Some apartment dwellers began banging pots and raining down bottles to express their anger, he said. In the melee, a 24-year-old motorcycle taxi driver was shot dead.

"I'm not going to be irresponsible and accuse anyone," Ocariz said. "I condemn the violence and the shots must be investigated, but I also reject the brutal repression" of security forces.

When National Guardsmen arrived to secure the area, a 25-year-old sergeant was shot through the neck and killed. Ocariz said that according to district police, who report to him, in both cases the men's wounds seemed to indicate the shots came from above.

Pro-government motorcycle gangs who reside in slums served as street-level enforcers for the late President Hugo Chavez and continue to menace opponents of the ruling socialists. The opposition claims they are bankrolled by the government.

Maduro, meeting with U.S. actor Danny Glover, said on state TV that the slain motorcyclist, Jose Gregorio Amaris, used his motorcycle as a taxi and was clearing debris in order to do his job.

He called those who build street barricades "vandals who hate the people" and said a second motorcyclist was seriously injured.

Among opposition demands is that the government disarm the motorcycle-riding paramilitaries, called "colectivos."

A day after Maduro said he was breaking diplomatic relations with Panama over its push for Organization of American States-sponsored mediation in the crisis, his government expelled Panama's ambassador and three other diplomats, giving them 48 hours to leave.

Last month, Venezuela expelled three U.S. diplomats, accusing them of conspiring with the opposition, a claim that Washington denied.

Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said Venezuela also had suspended debt negotiations over $1 billion owed to Panamanian exporters.

In the latest development affecting what the opposition calls a full-scale government assault on freedom of expression, a newspaper critical of the government said it was the target of a criminal defamation suit filed by National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello.

Editor Teodoro Petkoff wrote in the paper, TalCual, that the Caracas judge overseeing the case had ordered him and three other executives as well as columnist Carlos Genatios not to leave the country without permission.

Cabello accused the newspaper of printing something he claimed never to have said: That if people don't like crime they should leave the country.

A conviction would carry a prison sentence of two to four years.

___

Associated Press writer Christopher Sherman and cameraman Marko Alvarez contributed to this report.


http://news.yahoo.com/2-dead-venezuelans-clash-protest-barricades-015253136.html

Title: Oliver Stone caricature by Rayma
Post by: captainccs on March 08, 2014, 09:14:24 AM
Oliver Stone caricature by Rayma

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BiN6sRXIAAAL7n5.jpg)

https://twitter.com/raymacaricatura/status/442332089544105984/photo/1

Title: Biden says Venezuela 'concocting' bogus stories
Post by: captainccs on March 09, 2014, 07:31:38 PM
Biden says Venezuela 'concocting' bogus stories
 By FRANK BAJAK
23 minutes ago

(http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ap_webfeeds/010b4f456f6dd0094d0f6a7067009f14.jpg)
Demonstrators lie on the ground holding statistics about the people murdered in the 14 years of Chavista government, at a protest in Caracas, Venezuela, Friday, March 7, 2014. Venezuela is coming under increasing international scrutiny amid violence that most recently killed a National Guardsman and a civilian. United Nations human rights experts demanded answers Thursday from Venezuela's government about the use of violence and imprisonment in a crackdown on widespread demonstrations. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)



CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — U.S. Vice President Joe Biden calls Venezuela's situation alarming in remarks published Sunday, suggesting its government is using "armed vigilantes" against peaceful protesters and accusing it of "concocting false and outlandish conspiracy theories" about the United States.

Biden's remarks, issued in writing to a Chilean newspaper in response to questions, drew an angry rebuke from Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

"We reject their aggression," President Maduro told supporters at a rally the socialist-led government held at the presidential palace. "They were defeated in the OAS and now they want revenge."

The U.S. had strongly objected to a declaration of solidarity for Venezuela issued by the Organization of American States on Friday night.

Washington said the declaration contradicted the OAS charter, in part, by stressing non-intervention in Venezuela over guaranteeing that human rights and free speech are respected there. Twenty-nine states voted in favor of Friday night's declaration with only the United States, Canada and Panama objecting.

"The situation in Venezuela reminds me of previous eras, when strongmen governed through violence and oppression; and human rights, hyperinflation, scarcity, and grinding poverty wrought havoc on the people of the hemisphere," Biden told El Mercurio.

"The situation in Venezuela is alarming," he wrote. "Confronting peaceful protesters with force and in some cases with armed vigilantes; limiting the freedoms of press and assembly necessary for legitimate political debate; demonizing and arresting political opponents; and dramatically tightening restrictions on the media" is not what Washington expects from a signatory to international human rights treaties.

Rather than engaging the opposition in a "genuine dialogue," Biden added, "Maduro has thus far tried to distract his people from the profound issues at stake in Venezuela by concocting totally false and outlandish conspiracy theories about the United States."

Maduro claims student-led protests that ignited Feb. 12, mostly peaceful but including almost daily street clashes with security forces, are an attempt by the extreme right to overthrow him.

The demonstrations have been joined mostly by middle-class Venezuelans fed up with inflation that reached 56 percent last year, chronic shortages of some food staples, and one of the world's highest murder rates. But some poorer Venezuelans, students in particular, are taking part. The government says 21 people have died.

On Sunday afternoon in eastern Caracas, about 100 demonstrators threw rocks at police, who responded with tear gas and water cannon. Some protesters tore a bus kiosk from the sidewalk and set it ablaze, providing authorities with an opportunity to repeat on state media its accusation that anti-government activists are vandals.

Despite a growing body of evidence to the contrary, Maduro on Sunday denied that armed paramilitary supporters of the government have employed violence against protesters.

"The only violent armed groups in the street are those of the right," he told the crowd.

In a statement issued by the presidency, Maduro also accused the opposition was "receiving financing from the United States" to undermine "a solid democracy that has had the popular backing in 18 elections over 15 years." He offered no evidence.

The statement said Venezuela was nevertheless interested in renewing" full diplomatic relations with the United States based on "mutual respect" and "non-intervention."

The two nations have been without ambassadors since 2010 and Venezuela has expelled eight U.S. diplomats in the past 13 months for alleged meddling.

Maduro, the hand-picked successor of the late Hugo Chavez, later met at the presidential palace with actor-activist Sean Penn and Haiti's prime minister. Penn is an ambassador-at-large for Haiti, where he runs a nonprofit aid group. He was shown on state television and made no public comments.

Biden and Maduro are both scheduled to attend Tuesday's swearing-in of Michelle Bachelet as Chile's president.

Bachelet, who was also Chile's president in 2006-10, recently said her administration will support Maduro's government and the Venezuelan people so they can "search for the democratic means to social peace."

___

Associated Press writers Fabiola Sanchez in Caracas, Josh Lederman in Washington and Luis Andres Henao in Santiago, Chile, contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/biden-says-venezuela-concocting-bogus-stories-232842054.html

Title: Protests and talks widen rifts in Venezuela opposition
Post by: captainccs on March 10, 2014, 05:30:42 AM
For the record, this is not yet the time for talks - Denny Schlesinger.


Protests and talks widen rifts in Venezuela opposition
By Daniel Wallis

CARACAS (Reuters) - As violent protests in Venezuela alienate moderates in the opposition and show no signs of toppling President Nicolas Maduro, the socialist leader's call for talks is deepening divisions between his rivals.

The country's worst civil unrest in a decade has killed at least 20 people, including supporters of both sides and members of the security forces, since early last month.

Day after day, thousands of opposition supporters march peacefully in cities around the nation, demanding political change and an end to high inflation, shortages of basic foods in stores, and one of the highest murder rates in the world.

Then every night, hooded opposition militants emerge around a square in eastern Caracas brandishing rocks and Molotov cocktails, clashing with riot police and turning one of the capital's most affluent neighborhoods into a battlefield.

The violence is fueling tensions inside the opposition, with moderates scared it could spin further out of control and tarnish the cause of peaceful political change in the future.

Maduro appears to have weathered the worst of the demonstrations on the streets for now and is repeatedly offering talks, creating a new dilemma for opposition leaders.

So far, they have put tough conditions on any discussions, saying they refuse to be part of a "photo opportunity" and that they fear the government has no intention of addressing issues such as corruption, impunity and political prisoners.

The Democratic Unity opposition coalition said on Friday it would only sit down for dialogue with Maduro if the meeting were mediated by someone "of good faith" - and broadcast live.

"We're sick of violence. Everyone is being attacked," it said in a statement. "We're showing our hand to the public ... (We want) true dialogue, a clear agenda, and equal conditions."

But with pleas for talks coming from as far afield as the White House, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Pope Francis, the refusal to attend any discussions to date has drawn criticism, including from within the coalition's ranks.

Opposition lawmaker Hiram Gaviria quit his party Un Nuevo Tiempo (A New Time) and the coalition on Friday over its ban on attending talks at the Miraflores presidential palace.

Gaviria blamed the unrest on the government, which he said had imposed a broken social and economic model and used 15 years of "hate speech" to undermine its opponents.

But he said he would meet anyone, anywhere, to try to avoid more violence, even if dialogue stood little chance of success.

"How many more deaths must there be before we talk and find understanding?" asked the legislator from central Aragua state. "There has to be dialogue."

The opposition was deeply divided for years until it showed remarkable cohesion ahead of the 2012 presidential election and again last year when a new vote was called to succeed socialist leader Hugo Chavez after his death from cancer.

The current protests, however, have reopened old rifts between those who advocate street action to force the president from power, and others with a slow-boil strategy of building support in the cities and states they govern while letting the dysfunctional economy weaken the government.

'VERY DANGEROUS'

Maduro's critics, some of whom have vowed to stay in the streets until he resigns, are demanding the release of political prisoners, justice for victims of what they call repression, and the disbandment of armed pro-government militant groups that are accused of attacking opposition protesters.

Another opposition lawmaker, Ismael Garcia, said the majority of Democratic Unity were in favor of serious talks.

"Nobody has rejected dialogue, but there have to be very clear rules to the game, and we must work together," he said.

But it is not clear how opposition leaders want to handle the demonstrations. Though Maduro's opponents condemn the violence by a small but vocal minority, they continue to support street mobilizations that often lead to such clashes.

Plaza Altamira, site of the nightly battles with riot police, once enjoyed its reputation as one of the capital's nicest spaces. Now the street corners are piled with burnt trash and charred wires, broken bricks and shattered glass.

The barricading of roads by demonstrators has led to fist-fights, fatal shootings, more teargas, and incensed cries of "repression" from more shrill voices in the opposition.

While they understand the frustration, others disagree.

"Rejecting the barricades doesn't mean one supports the government," said local political analyst Luis Vicente Leon.

Maduro appears to have survived the short-term challenge to his rule. Coinciding with the emotional anniversary of Chavez's death, the protests have even given him a chance to unite the ruling Socialist Party against a common threat.

At an event to mark International Women's Day on Saturday, Maduro consoled the sobbing wife of a pro-government actor who described how they were screamed at in a Caracas restaurant by dozens of opposition supporters who walked in banging pots and pans and yelling that her husband was a murderer.

Maduro offered again to sit down with the opposition.

"If you want, we'll do a closed-door session first and tell each other everything we need to say, and then we'll speak to the country together," he said in a nationally televised speech.

He was worried, he said, that the opposition's leadership was crumbling and creating an unpredictable power vacuum.

"I don't say this as a joke ... it's very dangerous. Anyone could take over who has violent plans, and that would be worse."

In a sign of increasing confidence, an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour that many in the opposition had hoped would prove to be a disaster for Maduro, pleased the president so much that state TV has re-run it in its entirety two nights running.

The answer which most outraged his foes in the opposition: when Amanpour asked Maduro what kept him awake at night, and he replied that he slept "peacefully, like a child."

"It was a very good interview, forgive my immodesty," he told Saturday's rally. "But any of you, if you sat with Amanpour, would answer as well or better than me, because it's the truth of the people, the true story of Venezuela."

(Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Kieran Murray and Eric Walsh)

http://news.yahoo.com/protests-talks-widen-rifts-venezuela-opposition-050600262.html
Title: World Bank's ICSID Rejects Venezuela "Appeal" over ConocoPhillips
Post by: captainccs on March 13, 2014, 04:27:23 AM
World Bank's ICSID Rejects Venezuela "Appeal" over ConocoPhillips


CARACAS -- In a 2-1 decision, the World Bank's arbitration panel, the International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), has rejected Venezuela's request for "reconsideration" of ICSID's September 2013 finding that it had jurisdiction and that Venezuela was liable for the expropriation of ConocoPhillips' investments in the Latin American nation.

ConocoPhillips originally brought the biggest case to date against Venezuela in December of 2007, seeking $30 billion in compensation for stakes in two Orinoco projects - Petrozuata and Hamaca - and two joint venture exploration agreements in the Gulf of Paria, all of which Venezuela expropriated in 2007.

After years of briefs and hearings -- including an attempt by Venezuela to disqualify one of the 3 arbitrating judges and the death and replacement of another -- on September 3, 2013, ICSID ruled that it had jurisdiction to hear the claim and that Venezuela had indeed breached its obligations under the Netherland's Bilateral Investment Treaty "to negotiate in good faith" to compensate ConocoPhillips for the expropriation and was therefor liable to pay damages for the expropriation.

In an unusual move that the majority of the panel ruled was not allowed, Venezuela sought to have the panel "re-consider" the jurisdiction and liability decision, after writing a letter 5 days after the decision, on September 8, 2013 (below), and claiming that new evidence had come to light via a U.S. Embassy cable leaked by Wikileaks that Venezuela had not stopped negotiating.

After examining the ICSID treaty and past rulings, "the majority of the Tribunal concludes that it does not have the power to reconsider the Decision of 3 September 2013," the majority made up of Judge Kenneth Keith, President, and L. Yves Fortier, CC, QC, wrote. "Section 3 of Part IV of the ICSID Convention sets out the Powers and Functions of the Tribunal, with nothing among its provisions even hinting at such a power."

The judge appointed by Venezuela, Egyptian Professor Georges Abi-Saab, dissented.

Abi-Saab, who replaced English barrister Sir Ian Brownlie after Brownlie died in 2009, has a law degree from Cairo University, an MA in Economics from the University of Paris, an MA in Economics from the University of Michigan, a Masters of Law (LLM) and SJD from Harvard Law School, and Doctor of Political Science from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, according to his biography.

"A strong case can be made for the existence of a general power of reconsideration by an ICSID tribunal of its interlocutory decisions (within certain limits or under certain conditions all the same) in a case still pending before it," wrote Abi-Saab in his lone dissent, that contained many typographical and grammatical errors. "However, if the answer to the question whether such a power exists or not were to be in the negative, there remains the possibility ... that the Tribunal possess a specific power for dealing with requests based on a particular or certain particular legal grounds."

The ICSID panel then ordered Venezuela and ConocoPhillips to move on to arguing over how much the award should be. ConocoPhillips, which says it invested over $4.6 billion in the oil ventures starting in the 1990s, is now reportedly seeking $6.5 billion for the siezed assets. Venezuela has offered $2.3 billion.

ConocoPhillips is to file their damages brief ("Memorial on Quantum") by May 19, with Venezuela's damages brief due 10 weeks later. After that, both sides will have another 8 weeks in which each will file Reply Briefs, with ICSID fixing a hearing for oral arguments after that.

Another U.S. oil giant, Exxon Mobil Corp, has been seeking up to $10 billion at ICSID also for the expropriation in 2007 of a large heavy crude project in the Orinoco region. In February of 2012, Venezuela was ordered to pay ExxonMobil about $908
million in compensation by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in lost contractual earnings because of the expropriations (decision below).

"The ICSID decision on the actual losses suffered by ExxonMobil from Venezuela's expropriation is expected soon," says Russ Dallen, an international lawyer and banker who follows the cases and studied under ICSID judge Sir Ian Brownlie at Oxford University. "Venezuela and ExxonMobil filed their final post-hearing briefs almost 2 years ago in May of 2012."

In the ConocoPhillips case, Venezuela may keep stalling for time, says Dallen. "Apparently, Venezuela now intends to try to disqualify the 2 judges that ruled against them on the panel -- even after they had already challenged one and lost."

In October of 2011, Venezuela filed a challenge to Canadian Judge L. Yves Fortier, QC, who had been appointed by ConocoPhillips. A tribunal heard the challenge and ruled against Venezuela 4 months later in February of 2012.


http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1756923&CategoryId=10717
Title: To Those That Think Maduro Is Not A Dictator:
Post by: captainccs on March 15, 2014, 06:00:19 AM
Narrated in Spanish but the images need no translation. In America a video such as this would have a warning label.

I'm amazed that it has taken some people fifteen years to realize that peaceful elections is not the practical solution to dictatorship any more than prayers are the cure for cancer.  Cancer is fought with deadly force, surgery and chemotherapy. Dictatorship is a social cancer that needs to be destroyed with deadly force.

Denny Schlesinger


To Those That Think Maduro Is Not A Dictator: ¿Qué Pasa en Venezuela? by Foro Penal Venezolano
March 14, 2014

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgu_mCT-wgY[/youtube]

I am still amazed by the number of people that are still saying we should wait for elections, bla, bla bla. The video above proves beyond any doubt that Nicolas Maduro has become the Dictator of Venezuela. He has to go. Period.

And if you still have doubts, read Gustavo Coronel’s article “Approaching the Unthinkable” about Venezuela importing oil and you will realize that indeed, under Chavismo, all that oil underground will always stay there.


http://devilsexcrement.com/2014/03/14/to-those-that-think-maduro-is-not-a-dictator-que-pasa-en-venezuela-by-foro-penal-venezolano/#respond




Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2014, 09:33:45 AM
Denny,

Didn't you used to post on the infamous Gilder Tech Board yrs ago?

Do you ever feel in danger in Venezuela?

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 15, 2014, 11:40:50 AM
Denny,

Didn't you used to post on the infamous Gilder Tech Board yrs ago?


I most certainly did!


Quote
Do you ever feel in danger in Venezuela?


No more than elsewhere if you know how to stay out of unnecessary trouble. But on occasion one does feel a terrible pressure of not being in control. You have to remember that good news is not news and sells no papers. The lost Malaysian plane is getting hundreds of headlines but the thousands of flights that arrive safely get none at all.

Life goes on.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 15, 2014, 02:51:07 PM
BTW Denny,  I want you to know, and I think I speak for the collective effort here, that your posts are greatly appreciated. I would chalk up the rather small number of rejoinders to the fact that we do not have much to add-- but note that the read to post ratio on the Venezuelan threads (about 150/1 on this one) is quite strong. 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2014, 04:55:00 PM
"your posts are greatly appreciated"

Agreed.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 16, 2014, 07:08:07 AM
BTW Denny,  I want you to know, and I think I speak for the collective effort here, that your posts are greatly appreciated. I would chalk up the rather small number of rejoinders to the fact that we do not have much to add-- but note that the read to post ratio on the Venezuelan threads (about 150/1 on this one) is quite strong. 


When one is not in the trenches or in the command post there is not much one can say beyond reporting what one perceives as the facts specially if the news are about a distant land. I'm not expecting replies to my posts, I'm quite happy that in a small way I'm able to overcome the tyrant's censorship. If the members of this forum were to rebroadcast these news to other forums and social networks, that would be highly appreciated.

Marc, I appreciate your continued friendship.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Resolution condemning Human Rights violations in Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 16, 2014, 07:19:04 AM
I just got this email:

Quote
I just signed this petition -- will you join me?

United Nations: Issue a resolution condemning Human Rights violations in Venezuela
To: To The Office of The United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights, Ms. Navanethem Pillay

The petition is really important and could use our help. Click here to find out more and sign:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/petition/To_The_Office_of_The_United_Nations_High_Commissioner_of_Human_Rights_Issue_a_resolution_condemning_Human_Rights_violati/?kOUtfhb

Thanks so much,

The link

United Nations: Issue a resolution condemning Human Rights violations in Venezuela (https://secure.avaaz.org/en/petition/To_The_Office_of_The_United_Nations_High_Commissioner_of_Human_Rights_Issue_a_resolution_condemning_Human_Rights_violati/?kOUtfhb)

Post it to your favorite social network!



Title: The death of ‘Chavismo’ in Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 25, 2014, 08:36:58 PM
Many in the opposition were wishing Chavismo would disappear with the death of Chavez. They may get their wish. Chavez was a smooth and charismatic operator, something which Maduro most certainly is not. Last year while riding on the subway I heard  a Chavista lady saying that Maduro would be  disaster because he was not like Chavez, whom she adored. Her words are turning out prescient. Many of us figured that the succession wars inside Chavismo would weaken the regime. I don't recall anyone predicting the violent protests that are taking place. I don't recall ever seeing urban warfare in Venezuela with Molotov cocktails. Never before had a judge admitted being pressured to jail a political opponent (it went viral on Twitter). While I would not bet on "The death of ‘Chavismo’" the odds are growing.


The death of ‘Chavismo’ in Venezuela

Under Nicolas Maduro, student protests against the late Chávez’s policies have boiled over into violent street battles

by David Agren

(http://www.macleans.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/MAC12_VENEZUELA_CAROUSEL01.jpg)
Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters


Caracas-based bond trader Russ Dallen looks for small signals with which to gauge Venezuela and its economy. He found one last year when he ran out of toilet paper and searched for it unsuccessfully in three stores. “I found this great Argentine wine,” he recalls, but no toilet paper. The government subsequently ordered 50 million rolls of the stuff, including some from Costco, which, according to Dallen, it bought retail in the U.S. and imported—all of which sold out in short order.

Such shortages are common in Venezuela, and spark discontent in the long lines that form at supermarkets running low on everything from paper products to corn flour to cooking oil. Inflation, meanwhile, registered at 56 per cent last year, among the highest rates in the world, although the unofficial tallies reach the triple digits.

For the past five weeks, anger has boiled over into deadly street protests, with 25 lives lost and the government cracking down hard. In one instance this month, a group of armed men on motorcycles fired into a crowd of protesters, killing three.

The backlash started with a protest over an attempted rape on a college campus in the city of San Cristóbal. Police forcibly broke up the protest and jailed a handful of students in faraway prisons, which provoked even more protests throughout the country. The situation quickly spiralled beyond outrage over a sexual assault and into a fight for the future of Venezuela and the consequences of 15 years of “Chavismo,” the political and economic policies of the late president, Hugo Chávez.

Students see limited opportunities in a country with a state-controlled economy and increased insecurity. “It’s about students realizing that for them it’s a very difficult path after university,” says Carlos Cárdenas, deputy head of Latin America forecasting with IHS in London. Protesting law student Agnly Veliz recently told Reuters, “What’s the point of graduating while the country is in chaos?”

President Nicolás Maduro, who won a tight 2013 election and claims Chávez has appeared to him in prayer as a “little bird,” has dismissed the protests as an attempt to overthrow his government and called the students “Nazi fascists.” But he sees a growing threat in the student protests to the “chavista” system and he has used the unrest as an excuse to censor the media. He pulled the plug on Colombian cable news channel NTN. Many Venezuelans took to Twitter, only have the Internet cut and the site allegedly blocked.

The regime Maduro inherited from Chávez, who succumbed to cancer last year, appears to be teetering after years of mismanagement. Chávez promoted “21st-century socialism” and showered money on the poor from what was treated as a bottomless barrel of petrobucks. He also gave oil to allies in the region—allowing them repay with beans, if they bothered to repay at all. “Chavismo is durable because it tapped into a deep history of economic divide in Venezuela,” says Eric Farnsworth, vice-president of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas. “But the model is financially unsustainable.”

State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA’s output is down by nearly a million barrels per day since Chávez took office in 1999. Venezuela sells fewer barrels to the United States, which pays more than other customers but has needed less oil from Venezuela due the growth in North American production. Venezuela has borrowed some $40 billion from China since 2008, says Dallen—with some of the money going toward providing poor households with Chinese-made appliances on the eve of elections. Venezuela now sends the country 650,000 barrels per day as repayment—half of which are sold at steep discounts. “Venezuela borrowed beyond its ability to pay,” Dallen says, adding that enormous amount of refined petroleum products are consumed domestically, with gasoline selling for just pennies a litre.

Maduro’s response to the protests has reinforced the former bus driver and union boss’s reputation as a brute—unlike Chávez, who maintained his own popularity (to the point there are St. Hugo shrines) while keeping the opposition off balance. “There were things that kept Chávez from being so overly authoritarian and openly violent: his rhetorical prowess and money,” says Francisco Toro, a Montreal-based author of the Caracas Chronicles blog. But with Venezuela’s troubles worsening fast, “it’s obvious that Maduro isn’t going to have either.”

The political opposition is split between hardliners supporting the students and those encouraging dialogue. Chávez could manipulate the opposition: “He knew how to push our buttons,” Toro says. But with Maduro, the crackdown may be a sign of what’s to come. “The point of increasing the pressure, from the government’s point of view, has been to create a new normal,” Toro says. “If you go out and protest, you will be repressed and thrown in jail.”

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/worldpolitics/the-death-of-chavismo-in-venezuela/


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 01, 2014, 09:50:50 PM
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-01/venezuela-wants-to-spread-the-suffering
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on April 01, 2014, 10:00:22 PM
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-04-01/venezuela-wants-to-spread-the-suffering

Andrez needs to explain to the Venezuelian people that marxism is scientific!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 02, 2014, 11:15:24 AM
Dismembering frogs to find out what makes them tick is scientific.

Yesterday I almost found myself in a protest being dispersed by government assassins using tear gas and other means of violence. The protest had started out peacefully enough, the violence was started by the government assassins sadly misnamed Bolivarian National Guard and Bolivarian National Police. Clearly Bolivarian means wicked.

On the way home I passed a group of some six open trucks of Bolivarian National Guards waiting for their turn to crack skulls. They were smiling and apparently having a good time. If you take the time to have a good look you see that their  vehicles are brand new as are their uniforms and weapons. There is no lack of dollars to buy protection for the illegitimate state but not enough to buy food for the people they swore to serve.

Machiavelli states that an unpopular Prince will tumble. Not if he has enough violence on his side which clearly the illegitimate Venezuelan state has. Some ten or twelve years ago several soldiers were killed with flame throwers during "exercises." It was claimed to be an unfortunate accident and the killers were never tried. In my opinion it was part of an indoctrination campaign to scare the soldiers into unquestioning obedience under threat of torture and death. At higher levels officials are allowed to commit crimes but these are zealously recorded. Should in time an officer refuse to follow orders the evidence against him is used for blackmail. Just recently a judge confessed to her childhood friend that she ordered Leopoldo Lopez jailed under order to do so and under threat to lose her job if she didn't.

One has to question where such well oiled machinery of repression came from. Did the local Chavistas dream it up or was it imported from Russia, Cuba and China? Again a bit of history is illuminating. In his early years as president a globe trotting Chavez visited every long lived tyrant he could find including Mugabe, Gadaffi, Saddam Hussein not to mention his dearly beloved Castro brothers. What was Chavez looking for? What had these failed states to offer? One must be naive to think anything besides how to stay in power come hell or high water.

A regime based solely on the ideology of staying in power cannot be removed with flower power and peaceful marches. Socialism in Venezuela is a red herring but there is not enough time and space  here for a full discussion. As martial arts practitioners you must realize that the time comes to counter force with force. Against well armed military and police that means bloodshed, bloodshed that does not guarantee success, only suffering. A dozen years ago I didn't want foreign help but the realization that the tyranny in Venezuela has global roots, global backers, has made me change my mind. A little bit of help from our friends would be appreciated. Not that it's likely to come from the OAS or the UN which are dominated by petty tyrants.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 02, 2014, 06:11:59 PM
Denny says,

"the tyranny in Venezuela has global roots, global backers"

Besides Sean Penn who are these global roots and backs?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on April 02, 2014, 06:50:54 PM
http://www.latimes.com/la-fg-obama-americas20-2009apr20,0,1717554.story

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 03, 2014, 03:22:31 PM
Sorry for the delay in replying but I'm breaking in my new Mac and it's taking up a lot of my time. I have to buy new version of just about all my software and get used to all the changes.


Denny says,

"the tyranny in Venezuela has global roots, global backers"

Besides Sean Penn who are these global roots and backs?

In LatinAmerica the socialist governments of Cuba, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Nicaragua at a minimum. In Africa, Mugabe. Putin loves to replace America in arms sales. China loves to buy our oil. Belarus is erecting the "dignified housing" projects in Caracas (their workers are transported in luxury air conditioned busses). Iran set up car and bicycle factories that so far have produced nothing but it is rumored that they are buying our uranium, there is a lot of traffic between our two countries. The countries that are getting cheap Venezuelan oil. And just about any nation that loves tweaking America's nose. Many American Democrats have recanted their support for the Venezuelan regime but Jimmy Carter is not one of them.

Socialism, as opposed to nationalism, is an international movement. There is very much of that "new age" idea of world government of world order. In Europe you see it in the huge powers Brussels has collected for itself. The guys in Brussels mostly are not elected but appointed (like the most powerful person in America the Fed chair[wo]man). Just imagine what the UN would to the the USA if it were not for the veto power. Countries can put criminals in jail but the UN won't sanction most criminal nations. How do you put North Korea in jail?

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 05, 2014, 05:47:36 AM
Thanks Denny.

With regards to the New Age World Government it does seem Obama is a true believer.

Wikipedia's One World Government history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_government

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 05, 2014, 05:14:34 PM
New Age World Government is about the Elite (a self selected group of people) lording it over the rest of us for our own good. It is not only the Socialists who think this way. To a lesser extent, the Founding Fathers didn't trust the electorate and created the Electoral College to make sure no "mistakes" were made. And, of course, they didn't thrust women, poor people and other substandard specimens of Man to vote at all.

If you haven't already, you might want to read

The Vision of the Anointed: Self-Congratulation as a Basis for Social Policy (http://www.amazon.com/The-Vision-Anointed-Self-Congratulation-Social/dp/046508995X) by Thomas Sowell 

Sowell presents a devastating critique of the mind-set behind the failed social policies of the past thirty years. Sowell sees what has happened during that time not as a series of isolated mistakes but as a logical consequence of a tainted vision whose defects have led to crises in education, crime, and family dynamics, and to other social pathologies. In this book, he describes how elites—the anointed—have replaced facts and rational thinking with rhetorical assertions, thereby altering the course of our social policy.
 

Democracy has its limits and its dangers but for all that I would not replace it by a tyranny of the Elite. Yet some people welcome such tyrannies. Some are so stupid as to become suicide killers or martyrs for some celestial spaghetti monster. Or they go to their death like the ones did with "revered" Jones in Guyana. It does have a plus side, stupid dead genes don't reproduce. ;)

The most capitalist group is not immune. The Fed is an unelected Elite of Rich Bankers. Read The Creature from Jekyll Island : A Second Look at the Federal Reserve (http://www.amazon.com/The-Creature-Jekyll-Island-Federal/dp/0912986212) by G. Edward Griffin

Or watch the video. If you want to skip the Fed part and see the New World Order part, skip to 1:30

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J93k[/youtube]

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 06, 2014, 01:09:48 AM
Health Care "policy" is all about the elites as well.
Title: Anglo American Files Suit Against Venezuela at ICSID
Post by: captainccs on April 12, 2014, 05:37:04 AM
Not the best way to attract foreign investors...

Nor the best way to improve the country...

Lomas de Niquel as apparently not fared well under its new management. An investigation last year by former planning minister Teodoro Petkoff's newspaper Tal Cual found that, after one year of government management, Lomas de Niquel's furnaces were "operating at minimum capacity for lack of electrode paste, an important input to produce nickel," that they were unable to sell the nickel abroad "because it does not meet international standards," that "heavy equipment stood idle due to lack of oil and filters," and that "the purchase of supplies, spare parts and raw materials is paralyzed by lack of money."



Anglo American Files Suit Against Venezuela at ICSID
Venezuela now has 28 cases pending against it – the most of any nation in the world. Argentina, which had previously held the number one spot, now has only 24 cases listed as pending.

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Global mining company Anglo American PLC has become the latest corporation to file suit against Venezuela over its treatment of investors.

The World Bank’s International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) has accepted a request for arbitration against Venezuela filed by Anglo American’s lawyers, powerhouse law firms Baker & McKenzie and Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer.

According to the ICSID docket, Venezuela now has 28 cases pending against it – the most of any nation in the world -- after a rash of expropriations and nationalizations by Venezuela's late firebrand President Hugo Chavez. Argentina, which had previously held the number one spot after defaulting on $100 billion in debt, now has only 24 cases listed as pending.

Anglo American, one of the world’s largest diversified miners, had held a 91.4% share in the Loma de Niquel mine in Venezuela until 2012 when the Chavez government cancelled 13 concessions and refused to renew 3 others. “Despite attempts to enable a continuation of operations, our last application for renewal was refused and the concessions and permits granted by the government expired on 10 November 2012,” the company explains. “As of 10 November 2012, therefore, Anglo American’s mining and production activities at Loma de Niquel ceased permanently.”

Loma de Niguel had accounted for 13,400 metric tons of Anglo’s 29,100 tons of nickel production in 2011. The mine’s proved and probable ore reserves totaled 4.6 million metric tons at the end of 2011, Anglo American said in 2011's annual report, adding that it took an $84 million charge “mainly arising” from the Venezuelan concessions.

“The accelerated depreciation charge at Loma de Níquel has arisen due to ongoing uncertainty over the renewal of three concessions that expire in 2012 and over the restoration of 13 concessions that have been cancelled,” the company said at the time.

Anglo American, which had revenue of $33.063 billion last year, had been the largest investor in Venezuelan mining. In 2010, Anglo sold its 25.5% ownership in Carbones del Guasare S.A. which operates the Paso Diablo Mine to Peabody Energy. Paso Diablo is a surface operation in northwestern Venezuela that produced thermal coal for export primarily to the U.S. and Europe.

Lomas de Niquel as apparently not fared well under its new management. An investigation last year by former planning minister Teodoro Petkoff's newspaper Tal Cual found that, after one year of government management, Lomas de Niquel's furnaces were "operating at minimum capacity for lack of electrode paste, an important input to produce nickel," that they were unable to sell the nickel abroad "because it does not meet international standards," that "heavy equipment stood idle due to lack of oil and filters," and that "the purchase of supplies, spare parts and raw materials is paralyzed by lack of money."

Venezuela had been a member of ICSID since 1993, but Chavez formally removed the country from ICSID jurisdiction in January of 2012, saying he would not accept any further rulings from the arbitration court. However, clauses in bilateral investment treaties and individual contracts continue to give ICSID jurisdiction to hear cases against Venezuela.

Other companies with pending ICSID arbitrations against Venezuela include Gold Reserve Inc., Rusoro Mining Ltd., Tidewater Inc., Williams Cos. Inc., Koch Industries Inc., Owens-Illinois Inc., Tenaris SA, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil.

ICSID is an autonomous international institution established in 1965 under the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States (the ICSID or the Washington Convention) with over one hundred and forty member States. The Convention sets forth ICSID's mandate, organization and core functions. The primary purpose of ICSID is to provide facilities for conciliation and arbitration of international investment disputes.


http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=1926189&CategoryId=10717


Title: We Protest In Style!
Post by: captainccs on April 19, 2014, 06:59:44 AM
We Protest In Style!

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/protest-04-17-14.jpg)
Title: Chavez's Farming Utopia Withers as Pet Projects Abandoned
Post by: captainccs on April 29, 2014, 05:35:58 AM
Chavez's Farming Utopia Withers as Pet Projects Abandoned
By Anatoly Kurmanaev  Apr 28, 2014 11:11 AM GMT-0430


(http://www.bloomberg.com/image/i34LwqndG1WI.jpg)
Photographer: Meridith Kohut/Bloomberg
Rows of new farm equipment, imported from Belarus, sit unused at the "William Lara" agro-industrial commune in the... Read More


The harvesters imported to overcome food shortages are gathering cobwebs near a burnt corn field in central Venezuela. A short distance away is the shell of a fertilizer plant and rows of empty red-roofed bungalows.

This is the William Lara agricultural commune, the first of five such projects that former President Hugo Chavez said were going to reverse a 11-year rise in food imports and put products back on the nation's shelves. One year after his death, the last 30 workers on the site are removing equipment, surrounded by 4,300 soccer fields-worth of cleared land baking in the savanna heat.

"The president dies and the project dies with him," Eumir Perez, William Lara's former coordinator, said in an interview in Calabozo, a town in Guarico state 60 miles (97 kilometers) from the project. "The government is too busy staying in power, fighting against the capitalists' economic war. No one dreams big anymore."

The $300 million commune is one of the many projects on which the government has squandered the $50 billion Venezuela receives each year from oil exports, said Anabella Abadi, an analyst at public policy consultancy ODH Grupo Consultor. The national comptroller office's 2013 annual report says there are 4,381 unfinished public infrastructure projects in Venezuela, a quarter of them started before 2006.

The projects include 100 kilometers of an elevated train line from Valencia, Venezuela's third biggest city, to Cagua that was halted in 2010, and Steel City -- a town with houses, shops and steel plants in Bolivar state, which remains flatland.

No Water

Work on William Lara, the rural version of the Steel City, stopped last year after about $120 million was spent on clearing the land and building the first 176 houses.

The construction will resume after the government figures out a way of bringing water to the site 125 miles south of Caracas, Agriculture Minister Yvan Gil said.

"This is a technical problem, that our specialists are working to resolve," Gil, 41, said in an interview in his Caracas office on April 10. "The project is advancing."

Perez said construction began without checking water availability and now a dam would have to be dug to make the project viable.

Spokesmen for Maduro's office and the Information Ministry declined to comment on project delays in Venezuela.

Chavez set up off-budget funds that are not subject to parliamentary oversight to finance infrastructure projects. The funds have spent $112 billion since 2005, including the resources for the William Lara project, according to the Finance Ministry's annual report.

Broken Promises

"These are part of this government's unfulfilled promises," Abadi said in an interview in Caracas.

Ribbon-cutting ceremonies at new housing blocks and playgrounds helped Chavez's hand-picked successor Nicolas Maduro win election in April 2013, while failing to revive industry, said Abadi. Non-oil exports fell to 4 percent of the total in the first nine months of 2013 from 19 percent 10 years earlier, according to central bank.

The decline of local industry and dollar shortages pushed inflation to 59 percent in March and emptied shelves of basic goods such as milk and soap, fueling two months of protests that have left at least 41 people dead.

Venezuela's dollar bonds trade at the highest risk premium in the world, with investors demanding 10.41 extra percentage points to own the country's notes instead of U.S. Treasuries. The country's bolivar slumped 88 percent against the dollar when the government opened a new currency market last month to ease trading restrictions.

Belorussian Communes

Chavez's plans for agricultural communes began with a visit to Belarus in 2007, when his counterpart Aleksandr Lukashenko took him on a tour of projects dating from the Soviet Union's 1930s collectivization, said Perez, who now advises the president of Venezuela's state agriculture fund.

Belarus shares similar economic problems with Venezuela. The country, which former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the "last dictatorship in Europe," has seen its currency weaken 70 percent against the dollar since 2011 and has the world's third fastest inflation after Venezuela and Iran, according to its central bank.

Belorussian construction company BelZarubezhStroy, known as BZS, began work on William Lara in 2011 and was scheduled to complete the project by the end of 2012, according to the Agriculture Ministry's annual report for that year. The plan envisaged 500 houses, a school, grain silos, sports grounds, shops, a power substation, a milk factory and a slaughterhouse. The project is named after a Guarico governor and Chavez ally who died in 2010 when he drove his car into a river.

Setting an Example

The commune would "set the example for the development of agro-industry of Venezuela," Chavez said in July 2012 after meeting a Belorussian delegation.

Farmers from the nearby towns of Calabozo and El Sombrero never came to the project amid the water and funding shortages. Meter-high dry grass now covers acres of fields cleared of stones and spindly dwarf trees, as new gravel roads snake across the featureless terrain. Some corn fields were burnt to chase away rodents because local workers weren't sure how to use the Belorussian machines to harvest the crop.

Agriculture and food supply were at the heart of Chavez's poverty reduction campaign during his 14 years in power, including land redistribution, farm credits and investment in rural infrastructure, Agriculture Minister Gil said.

Grains and corn production has doubled in the past 15 years as a result, he said. "Very few countries in the world can say this."

Food Security

Higher grains volumes have failed to make up for the stagnant production of more expensive products such as milk and beef, said Alejandro Gutierrez, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of the Andes in Merida. Venezuela imports 70 percent of its food today, compared with about 50 percent in the late 1990s, according to the National Agriculture Industry Association, known as Fedeagro.

"Production hasn't kept up with demand, pushing the country's food security to critical levels," Gutierrez said by telephone on April 21.

A decade of price controls on basic goods has exacerbated the situation. A kilogram of meat costs 8 bolivars (12 U.S. cents at the black market rate) and rice is 3 bolivars a kilogram in the Mercal state supermarket chain, fueling hoarding and smuggling to neighboring Colombia and leaving shelves bare.

More than one in four basic goods was out of stock in Latin America's fourth-largest economy in January, the most since records began, according to the central bank. The bank stopped publishing up-to-date scarcity data last month.

"The legacy of this government is a very low rate of execution," Jose Guerra, economics professor at the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas, said by phone April 21. "They have tried to do too many things at the same time, causing inefficiency and waste."

To contact the reporter on this story: Anatoly Kurmanaev in Caracas at akurmanaev1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at asoliani@bloomberg.net; Philip Sanders at psanders@bloomberg.net Philip Sanders

 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-28/chavez-food-utopia-withers-as-development-plans-left-unfulfilled.html




Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 29, 2014, 06:00:25 AM
"Perez said construction began without checking water availability and now a dam would have to be dug to make the project viable."

We here of government project over runs here too.  I don't know the statistics but we here all the time of defense cost "overruns" on basically every single project.

Stadiums always cost more to build then "projected".  I don't understand why we don't have contracts that limit the amount available and the entity that accepts the contract must meet those limits.  Or they borrow money privately and then pay the overdrawn balance back.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 29, 2014, 06:25:28 AM
I don't understand why we don't have contracts that limit the amount available and the entity that accepts the contract must meet those limits.


You would wind up with a lot of unfinished projects and bankrupt contractors. The solution is to go back to basics, get government out of where it does not belong. As Ayn Rand suggested, the proper roles for government are limited to security, defense and the arbitration of disputes.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 29, 2014, 07:10:03 AM
Governments are the same the world over, inefficient because the people who work there have no incentives to be frugal, quite the contrary. Take American public education, where did all the loan money go? To teachers? No, to school administrators. Yesterday I read about Japan, same thing. It's all about the Tragedy of the Commons.


Things That Make You Go Hmmm... by Grant Williams

“Everything makes sense once you realize Japan is a communist country.”

Aki Wakabayashi’s book Komuin no Ijona Sekai (The Bizarre World Of The Public Servant) sprang from her 10 years working at a Labour Ministry research institute and lifted the lid on some of the peccadilloes of Japan’s civil service.

Wakabayashi told of being scolded for saving her department ¥200 million, as her effort put that amount in jeopardy for the following year’s budget allocation; of senior managers taking female subordinates on first-class, round-the-world trips to “study labour conditions in other countries”; and of the mad dash by all departments to spend unused budget before year-end — the collective result of which saw monthly total expenditures by government agencies jump from ¥3 trillion in February to ¥18 trillion in March.

The facts unearthed by Wakabayashi are remarkable:

(Japan Times): The national average annual income of a local government employee was ¥7 million in 2006, compared to the ¥4.35 million national average for all company employees and the ¥6.16 million averaged by workers at large companies. Their generosity to even their lowest-level employees may explain why so many local governments are effectively insolvent: Drivers for the Kobe municipal bus system are paid an average of almost ¥9 million (taxi drivers, by comparison, earn about ¥3.9 million).

School crossing guards in Tokyo’s Nerima Ward earned ¥8 million in 2006. (Such generosity to comparatively low-skilled workers may explain why in the summer of 2007 it was discovered that almost 1,000 Osaka city government employees had lied about having college, i.e., they had, but did not put it on their resumes because it might have disqualified them from such jobs!) Furthermore, unlike private sector companies, public employees get their bonuses whether the economy is good or bad or, in the case of the Social Insurance Agency, even after they lose the pension records of 50 million people (2008 year-end bonuses for most public employees were about the same as 2007, global economic crisis notwithstanding).

In addition to their generous salary and bonuses, public servants get a wealth of extra allowances and benefits. Mothers working for the government can take up to three years’ maternity leave (compared to up to one year in the private sector, if you are lucky). Some government workers may also get bonuses when their children reach the age of majority, extra pay for staying single or not getting promoted, or “travel” allowances just for going across town. Perhaps the most shocking example Wakabayashi offers is the extra pay given to the workers at Hello Work (Japan’s unemployment agency) to compensate them for the stress of dealing with the unemployed.

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/gyver-guffin

Title: Shortages
Post by: captainccs on April 30, 2014, 04:50:31 PM
Shortages

The shortage problem is not universal as the following picture shows:

(http://www.reuters.com/resources/assets/?d=20140424&t=2&i=PXP02&w=&cmb=&fh=410)

That truck is full of locally grown produce, generally of good quality, that farmers are free to sell with no price regulation. Prices swing wildly, last December a kilo of white onions was selling at close to BsF. 100 and earlier this year it had dropped to BsF. 35. The shortages exist in regulated wares such as coffee. But the coffee shortage was easily solved by rebranding the coffee "Gourmet" (it's the exact same coffee) which sells for BsF. 87 for a half kilo vs. the non existent regulated coffee at BsF. 26 for half a kilo. Regulated plain white rice is nowhere to be found but you can get plenty of parboiled and flavored varieties at prices well above the regulated stuff. Most of what is scarce are industrialized products like milk, flour, vegetable oil, and toilette paper because often the regulated price is below cost or because it is made or imported by the government. There are also shortages of imported goods for which the government is not willing to sell regulated dollars.

I've lost track, I think we have three oficial exchange rates plus the black market. To figure out the black market price you look at a Colombian website which shows their rates for dollars, euros and bolivars. There is a new exchange but it is so complicated and the government wants so much information that many people are quite willing to pay 20% more in the black market.

Some examples: There used to be a good local brand of canned tuna which was taken over by Chavistas. I bought a can of it made under the new management and it was a kind of paste, not "chunky" which is what you expect. For a while there was a Cuban brand of rice but it cooked into such an ugly mush that not even the poorest people were willing to buy it. There is no wheat flour but there is plenty of bread and pasta -- figure that one out! After 15 years of Chavismo I have finally run out of powdered milk and now I make home made soybean milk. Oh well.

Some good news, razor blades are back!

I just got this email today. Water shortages in the East where my marina is:

Quote
Interesante a ver que el problema del agua esta afectando a todos

LECHERÍA 29 DE ABRIL DE 2014
CONVOCATORIA
 
Se convoca a los propietarios y residentes del Parque Residencial Villamar Lecheria Barcelona a Reunión Extraordinaria que tendrá lugar el Sábado 3 de Mayo de 2014.
 
LUGAR: Oficina de Administración
 
PUNTOS A TRATAR:
 
1. Problemas con el suministro de agua por parte de Hidrocaribe
2. Vigilancia

Hora:   10:30 A.M:
 
Junta de Condominio



Queues, shortages hit Venezuela's homeless and hungry
Reuters By Carlos Rawlins
April 29, 2014 7:32 AM


(http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2014-04-29T113232Z_1_CBREA3S0W2C00_RTROPTP_2_VENEZUELA-HOMELESS.JPG)
A voluntary worker gives a bowl of soup to a man at the Mother Teresa of Calcutta eating center in Caracas .


CARACAS (Reuters) - Huge queues at supermarkets and shortages of basic products have become the norm in Venezuela over the last year - and the most needy are increasingly at the sharp edge.

Workers at soup kitchens for the homeless and hungry face an ever-more difficult task to find rice, lentils, flour and other staples to provide a free daily hot meal.

"I queue for hours every day because you can only get one thing one day, another the next," said Fernanda Bolivar, 54, who has worked for 11 years at the church-supported "Mother Teresa" soup kitchen in a back-street of downtown Caracas.

"The situation's got terrible in the last year," she said, in a dingy kitchen at the center named for the Roman Catholic nun who helped the poor and dying in India.

Inspired to help because of her own experience of going hungry a decade ago, Bolivar cooks lunch every day for the 50 or so people who sit on long concrete tables inside the dimly-lit refuge that often gets flooded during the rainy season.

To get the ingredients, like many other Venezuelan shoppers, she rises at 4 a.m. to start queuing - normally for several hours - at a supermarket nearby with hundreds of others. A number marking her place in the queues is scrawled on her hand.

Opponents of President Nicolas Maduro's government say the queues are a national embarrassment and symbol of failed socialist economics similar to the old Soviet Union.

But officials say businessmen are deliberately hoarding products as part of an "economic war" against him. They point to popular social welfare programs, and a halving of poverty levels since Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez came to power in 1999, as evidence that Venezuela's poor are better cared for than ever.

The government this month began an ID system that tracks shoppers' purchases at subsidized prices in state-run supermarkets. Officials say that will thwart hoarders and guarantee an equitable distribution of cheap food to those who need it, but critics are decrying it as a Cuban-style ration card that illustrates the shocking state of the economy.

Venezuela's government runs a network of shelters and feeding centers known as the Negra Hipolita mission, which operate alongside church institutions like the Mother Teresa center under a bridge in the San Martin district of Caracas.

There on a recent day, some of those eating a free lentil soup grumbled that there was no meat - but still gratefully wolfed down several bowls of food each.

"I've been coming every day for years, I'm one of the family here," said jobless Vladimir Garcia, 56, taking his time over a large bowl of soup.

Garcia has been helping organizer Bolivar to queue for the center's food. "Maybe socialism has done a lot for Venezuela, but we never had these huge long lines for everything before. Nor this scarcity of food products," he said.

"It's madness for such a rich nation."

(Writing and additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Brian Ellsworth and Kieran Murray)

http://news.yahoo.com/queues-shortages-hit-venezuelas-homeless-hungry-113232960--business.html

Title: Venezuela currency woes hit Herbalife and other US consumer brands
Post by: captainccs on April 30, 2014, 05:30:19 PM
Venezuela currency woes hit Herbalife and other US consumer brands

Venezuela's convoluted currency exchange system – which has one 'official' rate for the government and another for importers of non-essential goods – has hurt foreign companies.
Christian Science Monitor By Stephen Kurczy
8 hours ago
 
The actions of the Venezuelan government are undermining earnings for foreign companies and the positions of US investors.

The latest example came Monday evening when the nutritional-supplements maker Herbalife reported that first-quarter profit fell 37 percent due to a foreign-exchange loss tied to the devaluation of Venezuela’s bolívar. The loss was a hit to Herbalife’s 17 percent owner Carl Icahn, the activist investor who has in recent months taken to defending Herbalife from accusations that it’s a pyramid scheme.

Herbalife’s first quarter earnings, however, suggest that Mr. Icahn might have been wise to watch Venezuela more closely.

“I don’t think US Investors are exactly itching to get involved,” says our correspondent in Caracas. “What I’m taking away from all this is that US companies that are still here are in it for the long run. They’re willing to incur these losses as they weather out the storm that is ‘21st Century Socialism’ as they likely posses a huge market share.”

Herbalife, which competes with Weight Watchers International, Nutrisystem, and Medifast, has benefited from a focus on emerging markets such as Venezuela and its well-known “Miss” culture, says our correspondent in Caracas, referring to beauty pageants, such as Miss Venezuela and Miss Universe.

“Herbalife is very popular down here,” our correspondent says.

But Venezuela’s convoluted currency exchange system has hurt foreign companies, which was forewarned last year by US hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management LP’s William Ackman.... For the rest of the story, continue reading at our new business publication Monitor Global Outlook.


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-currency-woes-hit-herbalife-other-us-consumer-155051214.html

Title: Hilarious Slide Perfectly Demonstrates Corporate America's Venezuela Strategy
Post by: captainccs on May 01, 2014, 07:08:02 PM
This Hilarious Slide Perfectly Demonstrates Corporate America's Venezuela Strategy
 SAM RO   
MAY 1, 2014, 10:36 AM    1,815 2

Emerging market economies offer fantastic growth opportunities for multinational corporation.

But conducting business in these markets comes with all sorts of risk. They tend to experience high inflation rates and volatile currency swings.

In February, Venezuela undertook a massive currency devaluation that instantly wreaked havoc for companies doing business in the country. In Q1, Coca-Cola took a $247 million charge because of Venezuela's bolivar.

Most of the companies that dodged this were probably quietly celebrating.

The executives at Church & Dwight — the owner Arm & Hammer, OxiClean and Trojan — celebrated quite vocally during the CAGNY Conference earlier this year.

"I wanna talk about our entry strategy into Venezuela," teased Matt Farrell, Church & Dwight's CFO. "Come on! We're not doing it! What're you stupid?!"

"I'm writing a letter to the president of Venezuela to thank him for all of the pain and suffering and distraction he's causing all of my major competitors," he said.

Farrell said that Church & Dwight would not be going into Venezuela in his lifetime.

Here's the blunt slide Farrell used to communicate his sentiment.

(http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/536257f6ecad04095ae33b51-962-548/screen%20shot%202014-05-01%20at%209.26.32%20am.png)
Venezuela

Church & Dwight


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/church-and-dwight-venezuela-map-2014-5#ixzz30WI1SJ00
Title: Venezuelan official arrested on a U.S. warrant
Post by: captainccs on July 26, 2014, 06:08:23 AM
Sometimes one needs a break but I'm still here


Venezuela official seeks immunity in Aruba ruling
Associated Press By DILMA ARENDS GEERMAN and JOSHUA GOODMAN
14 hours ago
 
ORANJESTAD, Aruba (AP) — A judge in Aruba was expected to rule Friday on whether the highest-ranking Venezuelan official ever arrested on a U.S. warrant will remain behind bars pending an extradition request on drug charges.

Hugo Carvajal, a former head of Venezuelan military intelligence and close confidant of the late president Hugo Chavez, was arrested Wednesday upon arriving at Aruba's airport. U.S. authorities allege he's one of several high-ranking Venezuelan military and law enforcement officials who provided a haven to major drug traffickers from neighboring Colombia and helped them export large quantities of U.S.-bound cocaine through Venezuela.

Carvajal's surprise arrest is casting a spotlight on what's known in Venezuela as the "Cartel of the Suns," a reference to rogue, high-ranking military officers believed to have grown rich from drug-running. Top Venezuelan officers wear sun insignia on their uniforms.

Together with the unsealing Thursday of a drug indictment against two other Venezuelan officials, Carvajal's arrest is likely to ratchet up tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela's socialist government, which frequently accuses Washington of conspiring against it and using the drug war to exert pressure on Latin America.

"Carvajal's only option to avoid going to jail for a long, long time is going to be to cooperate, and that is going to be devastating for a lot of senior Venezuelan officials," said Frank Holder, a Miami-based expert on narcotics trafficking who is chairman for Latin America of FTI Consulting, a business advisory firm.

President Nicolas Maduro has already threatened to retaliate against Aruba, just 15 miles off Venezuela's coast, unless Carvajal is freed. The president likened Carvajal's arrest to an "ambush" and "kidnapping" that violates international law because he had been appointed the country's consul to the Caribbean island. Prosecutors in Aruba say that while Carvajal was carrying a diplomatic passport he isn't entitled to immunity because he was not yet accredited by the Netherlands, which runs foreign affairs for its former colony.

"We won't let our honor or that of any Venezuelan be sullied by campaigns orchestrated from the empire," Maduro said in a speech Thursday night.

On Friday afternoon, judge Yvonne van Wersch emerged from the hearing to announce that she would take several hours to decide whether Carvajal had immunity.

"I want to make my own decision," she said.

Carvajal, who earned Chavez's trust as a military cadet in the early 1980s, has long been a target of U.S. law enforcement.

In 2008, he was blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury along with two other senior military officials for allegedly providing weapons and fake Venezuelan identity papers to Marxist rebels in Colombia so they could travel easily across the border. The U.S. has classified the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, as a terrorist organization and has indicted its top leadership on narcotics charges.

While Chavez always denied that officials in his government were aiding the FARC, material retrieved from a computer belonging to a senior rebel commander and seized by Colombian forces in a 2008 air raid seemed to place Carvajal front and center in what appears to have been a fluid relationship between the rebels and Venezuela's military.

In one communication from January 2007, the rebel leader known by his alias Ivan Marquez recounts for fellow commanders how he met with Carvajal and another army general and was promised delivery of 20 "very powerful bazookas."

The indictment against Carvajal doesn't discuss ties to the FARC. Instead, it focuses on payments he and other senior military officials allegedly received from Wilber Varela, one of Colombia's biggest kingpins before his 2008 murder in Venezuela.

Carvajal's attorney Chris Lejuez told The Associated Press on Friday that his client denies all charges against him and will seek diplomatic immunity from extradition. Even if freed, a final ruling on the U.S. extradition request could take several days.

Carvajal was being held in the central town of Santa Cruz in Aruba. Heavily armed officers were posted outside the police station where Friday's hearing will take place, due to security concerns. A reporter noted what appeared to be a sniper on the roof.

Carvajal's arrest follows the unsealing in southern Florida this week of an indictment against two other Venezuelan officials for allegedly working to protect another Colombian drug trafficker.

According to a criminal complaint, police officer Rodolfo McTurk was serving as the director of Interpol in Venezuela when he confronted an unnamed trafficker arrested in February 2009. After negotiations, the trafficker allegedly agreed to pay McTurk $400,000 in cash immediately and $75,000 a month to be released and allowed to continue his activities.

Three traffickers told a special agent with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration that the operations could not have continued without McTurk's help.

Each month, McTurk allegedly went to the home of the trafficker and received $75,000 in cash, once demanding payment in the form of armor-plated SUVs.

The Colombian trafficker was later arrested again and extradited to the U.S.

McTurk is believed to be residing in Venezuela. But his co-defendant, Benny Palmeri-Bacchi, was arrested last week trying to enter the U.S. with his wife and 5-year-old son for a two-week vacation at Disney World, his attorney, Edward Abramson, told The Associated Press. A former judge and attorney, Palmeri-Bacchi pleaded not guilty at a Thursday hearing. His attorney declined further comment on the allegations against his client.

A spokeswoman for the Miami U.S. Attorney's Office declined to comment.

___

Associated Press writer Joshua Goodman reported this story from Bogota, Colombia, and Dilma Arends Geerman from Oranjestad, Aruba. AP writers Christine Armario in Miami, Hannah Dreier in Caracas and Danica Coto in San Juan, Puerto Rico contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-official-seeks-immunity-aruba-ruling-174006174.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DDF on July 26, 2014, 06:46:56 AM
"Carvajal's only option to avoid going to jail for a long, long time is going to be to cooperate, and that is going to be devastating for a lot of senior Venezuelan officials,"


Or... the Venezuelan government could grow a pair, invade Aruba on grounds of hostility toward Venezuelan citizens, and tell the US to pound sand.

The US does use the drug war to push their agendas and influence in other countries, and as an employee to one of the parties, I can say, many view US intrusion as unwlecome, and not always due to corruption either... sometimes it's just called minding your own business and taking care of problems that actually have to do with one's own citizens.


My two cents.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on July 26, 2014, 07:48:26 AM
DDF:

American "intrusion" is both welcome and not welcome, depending on what it is and depending on who minds and who does not mind.  In any case, The US is losing LatAm with Obama's extreme "flexibility."


One day's Yahoo Latin-America headlines:

Japanese PM opens LatAm tour with Mexico energy deals

Chinese president ends regional tour in cradle of Cuban Revolution

Chinese leader signs accords, wraps up Cuba visit

Chinese president backs Cuba's economic reforms

China, Venezuela deepen economic ties during visit

Cuba hopes for more investment as Chinese president arrives

China, Russia leaders seek South American inroads

Chinese leader woos Latin America with deals

Brazil, China sign several trade, business deals

Russia set to reopen Soviet-era spy post on Cuba: source

China seeks to build railways in Brazil to ship out commodities

BRICS meet South American leaders after bank deal

Putin, Kirchner seek 'multipolarity' in Argentina visit

China's leader Xi departs for South America tour

Putin signs nuclear energy deal with Argentina

Putin in Argentina, building Russian ties

Putin in Cuba, Nicaragua to rekindle Latin America ties

BRICS to launch bank, tighten Latin America ties

Putin kicks off Latin America tour with Cuba stop

Putin pledges to help Cuba explore for offshore oil

Putin in Cuba to rekindle Latin America ties

http://news.yahoo.com/latin-america/



Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DDF on July 26, 2014, 09:32:17 AM
DDF:

American "intrusion" is both welcome and not welcome, depending on what it is and depending on who minds and who does not mind.  In any case, The US is losing LatAm with Obama's extreme "flexibility."

Obama is a chump. I can't state the disdain I have for him.
Title: Aruba releases Venezuelan diplomat sought by US
Post by: captainccs on July 27, 2014, 06:22:55 PM
Too bad Aruba ket the guy go.  :(

Aruba releases Venezuelan diplomat sought by US
Associated Press By JOSHUA GOODMAN and DAVID McFADDEN
22 minutes ago
 
BOGOTA, Colombia (AP) — A former Venezuelan general detained in Aruba on U.S. drug charges was released by the Dutch Caribbean island and sent home Sunday night, authorities said.

Venezuela's government said Hugo Carvajal was flying to Caracas with Deputy Foreign Minister Calixto Ortega.

Earlier in the day, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua read parts of what he said was a letter from the Netherlands' ambassador in Caracas agreeing with Venezuela's position that Carvajal's detention violated international law because he had been sent to Aruba as Venezuela's consul and was carrying a diplomatic passport.

Authorities in Aruba had argued previously that Carvajal didn't have immunity from arrest because he had yet to be accredited by the Netherlands, which manages the foreign affairs of its former colony that sits off the coast of Venezuela.

But at a hastily called news conference in Aruba's capital, the island's justice minister said Carvajal was being let go under a decision Sunday by the Dutch government. Dowers said Dutch Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans had decided Carvajal did have immunity but also declared him "persona non grata" — a term used by governments to remove foreign diplomats.

"The fact is that Mr. Carvajal was granted diplomatic immunity, but he is also considered persona non grata. He has to abandon our territory as soon as possible," Dowers told reporters at a news conference in Oranjestad that was streamed live on the Internet.

Aruba's justice minister and Chief Prosecutor Peter Blanken stressed that Carvajal had no accreditation to serve as a diplomat locally on the island so officials had decided to comply with the detention request from Washington based on an international treaty between the U.S. and the Dutch Kingdom.

"But that information changed today based on what Minister Timmermans of the Netherlands said. And Aruba has to follow instructions," Dowers said.

He said U.S. officials were "very disappointed" with the decision to free Carvajal.

Carvajal served for five years until 2009 as the late President Hugo Chavez's head of military intelligence. The two met in the early 1980s at the military academy in Caracas and later took up arms together in a failed 1992 coup that catapulted Chavez to fame and set the stage for his eventual rise to power.

His arrest Wednesday and possible extradition to the United States had threatened to further damage already fractious relations with Washington.

Carvajal was the highest-ranking Venezuelan official ever arrested on a U.S. warrant. In 2008, he was one of three senior Venezuelan military officers blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury for allegedly providing weapons and safe haven to Marxist rebels in neighboring Colombia.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia are classified a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. U.S. prosecutors have indicted all of the movement's top leadership, including senior commanders with whom Carvajal purportedly conspired, on charges of smuggling large amounts of cocaine.

Carvajal has denied any wrongdoing on those counts as well as charges unsealed this week in southern Florida that he was an associate of Wilber Varela, a major Colombian drug trafficker who was murdered in Venezuela in 2008.

The U.S. warrant has rallied supporters of Maduro's socialist government, who regularly accuse the United States of conspiring against it.

Maduro this week condemned Carvajal's arrest as a "kidnapping" orchestrated by the U.S., while Jaua on Sunday said the former general's only crime "is having defended the life of ex-president Chavez during 15 years."

___

Associated Press writer Joshua Goodman reported this story in Bogota, Colombia, and David McFadden reported from Kingston, Jamaica.


http://news.yahoo.com/aruba-releases-venezuelan-diplomat-sought-us-005342920.html


Title: Venezuela's Faltering Oil Sector
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 27, 2014, 07:50:18 AM
 Venezuela's Faltering Oil Sector Could Drag Down Petrocaribe
Analysis
August 27, 2014 | 0414 Print Text Size
Venezuela's Faltering Oil Sector Could Drag Down Petrocaribe
The Petrocaribe summit in Managua in June 2013. (INTI OCON/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary

The decline of the Venezuelan oil sector could have wider effects in Central America and the Caribbean. Venezuela supplies crude oil and refined fuel shipments at reduced cost to 15 countries in the region under the Petrocaribe pricing mechanism. Some of these countries depend on Venezuelan supplies for most of their energy use. Caracas has so far been able to maintain fuel supplies to these states because their low energy demands do not strain Venezuela's refining capacity. However, as Venezuela's energy sector declines -- and public finances deteriorate -- Venezuela eventually could change its terms for financing such shipments or reduce them altogether.
Analysis

The Petrocaribe oil financing scheme began in 2005 under former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Petrocaribe was conceived as a means of securing political allies among Caribbean and Central American states that depend heavily on fossil fuel imports. From the start of Petrocaribe, Venezuela offered financing that varied according to the international price of Venezuelan crude oil. The amount financed by Venezuela drops as the price of oil falls and rises as the price increases. For example, when Venezuelan oil prices equal or exceed $80, the buying nation pays 50 percent of the total cost of each oil shipment agreed upon, and the remainder is payable over 25 years at a 2 percent yearly interest rate. Under the current terms of Petrocaribe financing, member states must pay 40 percent of each shipment's cost up front, and 60 percent can be paid off over 25 years. Venezuela has accepted food, services and goods as payment for the oil, leading to undisclosed accumulated debts from pending payments.
Venezuela's Export Priorities

Overall, Petrocaribe is a small part of Venezuelan oil exports. In 2013, the outflow of oil products to Cuba, Petrocaribe and an additional preferential deal with Argentina totaled only about 240,600 barrels per day of the country's 2.1 million bpd of overall exports. Petrocaribe that year accounted for nearly 112,000 bpd. Because many Petrocaribe client nations lack the refinery capacity to effectively process Venezuela's heavy crude oil, more than half of products shipped to Petrocaribe countries are more expensive refined products such as fuel oil, diesel or gasoline. Since 2002, Venezuela has maintained an agreement with Cuba that currently provides the island with 99,000 barrels of oil and refined products per day -- more than half the country's oil consumption. The energy relationship with Cuba is crucial to the security of the Venezuelan government and is a higher priority than the Petrocaribe shipments. Unlike Petrocaribe, most of what Cuba receives is crude oil. In 2012, 85,000 of the 91,000 bpd that Cuba received were crude oil.
Venezuela Oil Production
Click to Enlarge

Venezuela continues to supply oil and refined fuels under the Petrocaribe scheme because those shipments do not significantly burden state-owned energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela, which is known by its Spanish acronym, PDVSA. However, Venezuela's depleted public finances and declining energy production have cast some doubt over the company's future willingness and ability to continue providing these shipments. Because of the fear of public backlash, Venezuela is unlikely to take decisive economic measures to alleviate the financial pressure on the energy sector anytime soon. Venezuela likely will continue Petrocaribe for as long as it can but will not hesitate to raise prices or reduce shipments if they threaten supplies to Cuba or its domestic market.
Domestic Financial Difficulties and Petrocaribe

The Venezuelan government's growing need for cash could eventually force Caracas to decide on the future of Petrocaribe shipments. Venezuela's reduced public finances mostly resulted from the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela's using Petroleos de Venezuela to fund high levels of social spending. This has placed significant pressure on the company, which has increasingly required transfers from the central bank to plug gaps in its finances. Despite reducing direct social spending from $30 billion in 2011 to $13 billion in 2013 and having Venezuelan oil prices steady at around $100 per barrel for most of 2013, the company still required assistance from the Venezuelan central bank. For 2013, the company posted a $15.8 billion net profit, of which about $12 billion appeared to be a direct transfer from the central bank.

Petroleos de Venezuela President Rafael Ramirez has promoted a series of economic reforms to turn around the company's deteriorating finances, one of which is cutting down on cash transfers to off-budget funds. However, the government has shied away from implementing more decisive measures, largely because of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's reduced popularity, caused by rampant inflation and growing food shortages. For several months, Ramirez has promoted economic adjustments, such as raising the price of subsidized gasoline, which costs Petroleos de Venezuela about $12.5 billion yearly. However, key members of the country's economic Cabinet -- such as Vice President Jorge Arreaza, Foreign Minister Elias Jaua and Central Bank President Nelson Merentes -- oppose major decisions because of their potential to cost the party public support ahead of the December 2015 legislative elections. With no decisive economic measures on the horizon, reductions in Petrocaribe shipments could free up cash to benefit the public sector.

The most immediate impact of a reduction in Petrocaribe shipments would be energy supplies rapidly becoming more expensive for small states. Because of their extreme dependence on Petrocaribe for energy, Nicaragua, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Haiti likely would be the most affected by such a measure. Of the four countries, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica appear to be the best positioned to withstand a reduction or cutoff of Petrocaribe shipments. The Dominican Republic relies on Petrocaribe supplies for about 23 percent of its imports, and Jamaica relies on the discounted energy from Venezuela for about 32 percent of its imports. The other two receive more than 90 percent of supplies from Venezuela. In case of changes to Petrocaribe financing or volumes, these countries would be able to procure oil from the United States, although it would be at full price.

In the case of Nicaragua, the removal of Petrocaribe pricing or supplies would likely result in the loss of a significant source of off-budget funds. The ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front relies on Petrocaribe to fund Albanisa, a joint venture held by Petroleos de Venezuela and the government of Nicaragua. In 2013, Nicaragua paid Venezuela $1 billion for imports of crude oil and refined products and received half that payment back in the form of a direct transfer to Albanisa. Under the terms of Albanisa, 40 percent of this total can be employed directly by Nicaragua, and the remainder is used for projects approved by Petroleos de Venezuela. This arrangement likely left Nicaragua with at least an additional $200 million in 2013, and with Nicaraguan budget expenditures for 2013 at $2 billion, the infusion of cash from Petrocaribe likely provided the ruling party with an additional financial cushion. The loss of this financing would force Nicaragua to finance public spending using government revenue and the undisclosed amounts saved in Albanisa accounts.

Petroleos de Venezuela likely will continue supplying Petrocaribe energy supplies under the current terms for as long as it can. A reduction in Petrocaribe shipments probably is not imminent but will become more plausible if the Venezuelan government does not relieve the financial burden on Petroleos de Venezuela. Some of the financial measures under consideration, such as moving dollars from off-budget funds to the country's foreign reserves, could give Petroleos de Venezuela room to continue Petrocaribe, but such moves will not have a decisive effect on Venezuela's overall decline. If Venezuela experiences problems in maintaining oil exports under its political agreements, it is likely to reduce supplies to Petrocaribe members before it chooses to reduce similar shipments to Cuba.

Read more: Venezuela's Faltering Oil Sector Could Drag Down Petrocaribe | Stratfor
Title: Venezuela Will Be The First Domino To Fall With The Price of Oil (?)
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2014, 08:42:45 PM
It looks like Stratfor has already covered this.  I wonder what Denny S. sees happening there.  Does this weaken the regime or just make things worse?

http://dailycaller.com/2014/12/10/venezuela-not-russia-will-be-the-first-domino-to-fall-with-the-price-of-oil/
Venezuela, Not Russia, Will Be The First Domino To Fall With The Price of Oil

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2014/12/10/venezuela-us-flooding-market-with-fracking-produced-oil/
Venezuela: U.S. flooding market with fracking-produced oil
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 11, 2014, 07:43:29 AM
Thanks for asking. Let's start with the basics:

African saying: When elephants fight the grass gets trampled. At the OPEC meeting Saudi Arabia and its Sunni allies carried the day.

Nicholas Maduro is a bus driver and you can expect bus driver wisdom from him.

Oil prices are set at the margin but that is not the price at which the bulk of oil is sold. Spot is the speculators' price. Most real buyers and sellers have hedged their trades. Notice that the Fox article correctly talks about average selling price.

The Daily Caller article is a political commentator doing his job, speculating on worst case scenarios.

The power play: The purpose of cartels is to exert control, in the case of OPEC to control oil prices. The power to do so comes from the capacity to flood the market. For decades the Saudi's had that power specially with full OPEC backing. Iran is an OPEC member but Russia is not. For all practical purposes, while an important player, Russia is not and has not been a key player. That role belonged to OPEC and within OPEC to Saudi Arabia. I use the past tense because fracking upset the equilibrium.

On a side note: I have been advocating American energy independence for years and when fracking came online I predicted both the recovery of the American economy and a lessening of the power of the oil exporters (without predicting any details). When everyone was predicting the demise of the US dollar, my position was that if the dollar failed the whole world would plunge into chaos (for a while). I also commented that trying to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency would have dire consequences. Saddam Hussein wanted to sell oil in euros, he ended, soon after, hung. Coincidence? Maybe.

The current situation, as I see it, is that Saudi Arabia and its Sunni OPEC allies are trying to give US frackers a "good sweating" to use a Rockefeller phrase. It is important to note that while the Arab oil producers are monarchies the US producers operate in a free market where collusion is illegal. It's not equal combat, the Arabs stand as a block, the Americans as a swarm. the outcome will be interesting! In any case, Russia and Venezuela are bit players of little consequence despite their large output. Should the Arabs win, the situation goes back to the previous state. Should the Arab "good sweating" fail, it will be the US frackers, turn to give the Arabs a "good sweating." That could break OPEC's power. I'm not making any predictions except to say that in price wars the "arms suppliers" and the consumers are the beneficiaries. Economists will worry about deflation but it is good deflation.

------------------------------------

The question was about Venezuela.

First, during Chavismo Venezuela has not received the full price for its oil. The discounts and special deals with Cuba and PetroCaribe to buy international votes is well known. What special concessions the Chinese got is less well known. Chavismo has a slogan:  "Venezuela es de todos" referring to the oligarchy. In truth now  "Venezuela es de los nica, de los cubanos y de todos los amigos del chavismo."

Second, at the current black market exchange rate it costs 3 US cents to fill the tank of my Toyota Corolla, tip included. Some Chavista factions wanted to raise the price of gas as part of the crisis management. Maduro nixed it. He is a bus driver, not an economist.

Third, from Black Friday, February 18, 1983, to Maduro, the bolivar/dollar exchange rate increase by 30 to 35% annually. Over the past 5 or 6 months it doubled! Inflation is presumably running at 70%.

A Short Note On My Hyperinflated Arepa Index

(https://devilsexcrement.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/cpi.jpg?w=501&h=307)

Two weeks ago, as I left Caracas on Nov. 22nd. to be precise, I wrote about the cost of a breakfast which I found expensive for Venezuelans, which included cheese arepas. As I returned to Caracas two short weeks later, I went to have a single cheese arepa at the same place. Imagine my surprise when I found that the Bs. 120 cheese arepa of fifteen days ago, now costs Bs. 156.

That is a 30% increase in two weeks. A year ago I would eat two for Bs. 120.

Thus, I will keep reporting on the hyperinflated arepa in the future.

BTW, they are still delicious…

http://devilsexcrement.com/2014/12/07/a-short-note-on-my-hyperinflated-arepa-index/

Fourth, in Chavista ideology, small farmers are good while industrialists (capitalists) are bad. This has consequences. Fresh fruit and farm produce including fresh eggs are abundantly available but packaged good are not, specially price controlled ones. While rice is price controlled and nowhere to be seen but you can buy parboiled or flavored varieties at several times the controlled price. Pasta you can generally find both price controlled and market priced varieties. Price controlled cleaning products are scarce and there are no "fancy" ones. But you can buy them from scalpers (black market) at four times the controlled price.

All sorts of things appear and disappear: toilette paper, car batteries, roasted coffee, medicines, spare parts as price controls and dollar availability cause scarcity and crisis management by Maduro temporarily solves the problems.

Fifth, The above is what you can see on the street. What happens inside Chavismo and the balance of powers in government I'm not privy to. But you get some glances: A drug dealer is named ambassador or something to Aruba, the US tries to get him but the Dutch let him go home.

Netherlands Says Venezuelan Detained in Aruba Has Immunity

http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/netherlands-says-venezuelan-detained-in-aruba-has-immunity/

Then Hugo Carvajal is rumored dead, the government denies it:

http://noticiasvenezuela.org/2014/09/alcaldesa-de-cedeno-desmiente-muerte-de-hugo-carvajal/

Since then Carvajal has dropped out of the news. On to the next crisis.

Cuba and North Korea are just two example that show that economic collapse does not mean the government must fall, that depends on the ruthlessness of the government. I have often said that Venezuela is a democracy by the consent of the military. The military is entrenched in Venezuela and they are given free rain to run drugs or any other money making scheme or scam. That was partly the basis of Hugo's hold on power.

Venezuela has a serious cash flow problem which will be made worse by the falling oil prices. Maduro's envoy to China begging for more loans was sent packing. In fact, the Chinese are pissed off that Venezuela is giving other loans preference over the Chinese debt. Venezuela started selling PetroCaribe bonds to Goldman Sachs at half par value. But with a bus driver in charge, who can tell what foolishness will follow?

Beer is back! Hurrah!

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 08, 2015, 10:06:33 AM
Rough translation (through google) of Denny's Spanish language post today:

Maduro was humiliated in Russia

DolarToday / Jan 6 , 2015 @ 7:00 a.m.

Nicolas Maduro was humiliated in Russia when received by an official of third rank of the Putin administration , Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation , Sergey Ryabkov Alexeevich.

Despite the humiliation received, Maduro expressed " solidarity with the government of President Putin to claim destabilizing USA ", he said the minister.

The Minister for Communication and Information, Jacqueline Faria, reported that this visit of Venezuelan president to Russia is a pre-destined for an international tour that will take work to China and nations of OPEC (OPEC).

" Technical stop in Moscow at the top of this presidential tour of China, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Algeria ," he wrote in his JacquelinePSUV account , which also published photos of the game , which can be seen participating in the meeting Minister for Economy , Finance and Public Banking, Rodolfo Marco Torres, and Chancellor Delcy Rodríguez .

Maduro began Sunday trip to the People's Republic of China to strengthen bilateral cooperation relations diplomatic, economic and commercial character with this nation.

During his visit to China , Maduro will meet with President Xi Jinping and also participate in the first China - ministerial forum Community of Latin American and Caribbean States ( CELAC) which will be held on 8 and 9 January in Beijing.

Later, he will tour countries of the OPEC in order to address the issue of falling oil prices.

Title: Defying U.S., Cuba stands by Venezuela on eve of regional summit
Post by: captainccs on April 08, 2015, 08:25:18 PM
Defying U.S., Cuba stands by Venezuela on eve of regional summit
Reuters By Nelson Acosta
38 minutes ago

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba said on Wednesday it would remain steadfast by Venezuela even as it seeks to improve ties with the United States, criticizing Washington's Venezuela policy before a summit meeting where the U.S. and Cuban leaders will meet face-to-face.

Cuban Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel chastised Washington over its decision last month to declare Venezuela a national security threat and order sanctions against seven Venezuelan officials.

"Nobody could think that in a process of re-establishing relations, which we're trying to move forward on with the United States, Cuban support for Venezuela could be made conditional," Diaz-Canel, the heir apparent to Cuban President Raul Castro, told reporters in Havana.

"If they attack Venezuela, they're attacking Cuba. And Cuba will always be on Venezuela's side above all things," he said.

Under late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, Venezuela became Cuba's closest ally and its most important benefactor.

When Raul Castro and U.S. President Barack Obama announced in December that the longtime enemies would restore full diplomatic relations and seek to improve trade, the move was widely applauded by Latin American governments.

But the praise of Obama's policy shift was tempered when the United States imposed the Venezuela sanctions on May 9, and the controversy now hangs over the Summit of the Americas in Panama this week.

Ahead of the meeting, the U.S. government has tried to persuade Latin American leaders that declaring Venezuela a security threat was a prerequisite for the sanctions, not a signal of U.S. aggression.

"The wording ... is completely pro forma," Ben Rhodes, a national security advisor to Obama, told reporters on Tuesday. "This is a language that we use in executive orders around the world. So the United States does not believe that Venezuela poses some threat to our national security."

Thomas Shannon, a top aide to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, was in Caracas on Wednesday to meet with senior Venezuelan leaders in an effort to ease tensions.

(Reporting by Nelson Acosta; Writing by Daniel Trotta; Editing by Kieran Murray)

http://news.yahoo.com/defying-u-cuba-stands-venezuela-eve-regional-summit-022934119.html

----------------------------------

Quote
Under late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez, Venezuela became Cuba's closest ally and its most important benefactor.
Not ally, exploited colony! While Venezuela is broke we still give away our oil to our Imperal Masters, the Cubans.

Title: Bolivar crumbles
Post by: captainccs on May 22, 2015, 03:35:49 PM
The rate at which the bolivar is falling is unprecedented. Today the parallel market is quoted at Bs 423.39 to the dollar is down in just a week from 285 or so. That's a 33% drop in a week or ten days. This is getting really scary!


Currency tumbles as Venezuelans look to offload bolivars
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
3 hours ago

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — A staggering plunge in the free market value of Venezuelan currency sent people scrambling to sell off their depreciating bolivars Friday.

The widely followed website DolarToday, which tracks exchanges along the Colombian border, reported that the South American country's currency lost a quarter of its value over the last eight days.

The site's app has become so ubiquitous that everyone in smartphone-obsessed Caracas seemed to find out about the crash through 400 to the dollar at the same instant, as DolarToday sent out a series of alerts announcing the new numbers under the headline "hyperinflation!"

Venezuelan currency was trading at 415 bolivars per dollar Friday, according to the site. That's down from 300 bolivars per dollar on May 14. It stood at 173 when the year started.

While many black market dealers paused transactions until the rate stabilizes, some Venezuelans said they had changed money at the 400 bolivar rate Friday.

It was not immediately clear what prompted the sudden drop, though a Barclay Capital Inc. report issued Friday described the underlying cause as government expansion of the money supply.

"We do not see any signal of change from the authorities but these risks should make them reconsider their policies," it said.

Barclays projected the Bolivar could dip as low as 600 to the dollar this year.

The administration of President Nicolas Maduro keeps tight control over the legal exchange of bolivars, using a byzantine three-tier system. It is meant to subsidize crucial imports, but has led to widespread corruption and speculation.

The strongest rate is 6.3 bolivars per dollar. The weakest official rate, which was billed as an alternative to the black market when it was rolled out earlier their year, has inched up to 200 bolivars per dollar. The fact many are willing to pay double that price for black-market dollars indicates the supply is limited.

The Maduro administration has been hoarding dollars as it grapples with falling oil prices. That has contributed to shortages and other economic distortions.

DolarToday is openly hostile to the socialist government and carries news stories attacking it. But the site insists its exchange rate reports are based on actual trades at exchange houses on the Colombian side of the border and are not manipulated to undercut the government.

In April, Maduro repeated his assertion that the site's shadowy managers, whose identities are not public, are collaborating with the speculators and opposition leaders he blames for the country's problems. He accused them of purposely sowing chaos and promised to have them arrested.

"We're going to put those people at DolarToday who are waging an economic war against Venezuela behind bars, sooner rather than later" he said.

The site, which is sometimes blocked within Venezuela, responded with a cheeky video documenting its popularity set to the club hit "Turn Down for What."


http://news.yahoo.com/currency-tumbles-venezuelans-look-offload-bolivars-161058938.html

Title: The switch to dollars in socialist Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 26, 2015, 06:53:51 AM
When exchange controls were introduced holding dollars or trading in dollars were made illegal, a move as stupid as banning drugs or alcohol in the USA. It does not work! Not even the Bank of England could protect the pound sterling against market forces, instead it made George Soros rich. Prohibition made the Mafia and Canadian distillers rich. The War on Drugs is making drug cartels, including Venezuelan officials, rich.

Because it did not work, the government set up bond trading schemes that effectively bypassed the bans. Until recently inflation/devaluation was held to around 30 to 35% annually but with the falling oil prices, rising dollar and Maduro's falling popularity (not that he ever was popular even with Chavistas), the bolivar has crumbled and there is nothing that the government can do about it.

I have long held that Venezuela's salvation was bankruptcy, the inability of government to buy votes. That is now coming to pass. The danger is that the uprising can be cruelly violent as was the case of the French Revolution.


Businesses quietly switch to dollar in socialist Venezuela
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
18 hours ago

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — It's still possible to buy a gleaming Ford truck in Venezuela, rent a chic apartment in Caracas, and snag an American Airlines flight to Miami. Just not in the country's official currency.

As the South American nation spirals into economic chaos, an increasing number of products are not only figuratively out of the reach of average consumers, but literally cannot be purchased in Venezuelan bolivars, which fell into a tailspin on the black market last week.

Businesses and individuals are turning to dollars even as the anti-American rhetoric of the socialist administration grows more strident. It's a shift that's allowing parts of the economy to limp along despite a cash crunch and the world's highest inflation. But it could put some goods further out of reach of the working class, whose well-being has been the focal point of the country's 16-year-old socialist revolution.

The latest sign of an emerging dual-currency system came earlier this month when Ford Motor Co. union officials announced the company had reached a deal with officials to sell trucks and sports utility vehicles in dollars only.

A few weeks earlier, American Airlines said it had stopped accepting bolivars for any of its 19 weekly flights out of Venezuela. Customers must now use a foreign credit card to buy the tickets online. Virtually all other foreign carriers have made the same switch with the government's consent, according to the Venezuela Airlines Association.

Driving the shift is the crumbling value of the bolivar, which has lost more than half its value this year, plunging to 400 per dollar on the free market as Venezuelans scramble to convert their savings into a more stable currency. Desperate, people are selling bolivars for a rate 60 times weaker than the strongest of country's three official exchange rates.

It's a politically uncomfortable situation for President Nicolas Maduro, who regularly leads chants of "gringo go home" and says currency speculation is one of the main tools used by enemies to try to sow chaos and force him from power.

It's not just businesses chasing greenbacks. Real estate contracts are still drafted in bolivars to satisfy a requirement imposed by late President Hugo Chavez, but in upscale neighborhoods most owners operate outside the law and sell and rent in dollars only. A group of realtors in tony eastern Caracas has established a password-protected website for listings in dollar prices.

Analysts say the administration likely sees a limited dollarization as the only way to prevent multinationals from leaving the county altogether, as Clorox did last year, citing problems brought about by decade-old currency controls, supply shortages and inflation that hit 68 percent last year, and economists believe is now well into the triple digits.

Production at Ford has fallen by 90 percent as the company struggles to gain access to dollars needed to import parts. Customers will now transfer Ford dollars in advance to pay for the import of the parts needed to assemble the cars in Venezuela, according to union officials.

Foreign airlines made their switch to dollars after the government refused to let them convert and repatriate $4 billion in ticket sales held in the country.

Meanwhile, inflation is racing so fast that ATMs have failed to keep pace. Many deliver a maximum of just $1.50 worth of bolivars per transaction. Some shoppers stay away from cash altogether, according to reports in local media, leaning more heavily on credit cards so they can pay for purchases later, when they'll cost less in dollar terms thanks to inflation.

Decade-old price controls make staple items ridiculously cheap for all Venezuelans. A bottle of vegetable oil costs 20 cents at the black market rate, a package of rice costs half that, and a sack of sugar costs even less.

Still, many working-class Venezuelans are looking for ways to accumulate their own stockpile of the U.S. currency by offering services to wealthy or foreign clients.

"It's the only way we can try to stay ahead," said one gym teacher who supplements his $25 a month salary by offering personal training to clients who can pay in dollars. The teacher, who asked that his name not be used to protect his safety, keeps his bills hidden around his home until a friend or obliging client can deposit them in his Miami bank account.

The move toward currency substitution doesn't sit well with hardcore government supporters, many of whom cut their political teeth listening to Chavez's tirades against the "dictatorship of the dollar."

"How is it possible that in the face of the U.S. effort to sabotage the revolution, we are allowing transnational companies to conduct business with the imperialist dollar in our country?" wrote Omar Hernandez, an engineer who works for Chavista community programs, on the influential pro-government website Aporrea.

But outside economists say Maduro would be wise to embrace the dollar outright.

Steve Hanke, a Johns Hopkins University economist who has long advised governments facing currency crises, says replacing the bolivar with the dollar would nip Venezuela's inflation problem almost overnight and become an anchor of economic stability, though it could also force austerity measures. He points to the example of Maduro ally Rafael Correa in Ecuador, who has railed against the U.S. during his eight years in office but has so far shown no desire to bring back the old national currency, which the country did away with in favor of the dollar.

At the Ford factory, workers are optimistic that the new deal will save their jobs, according to union leader Gerardo Troya. In fact, they have an idea for more dollarization: They'd like to be paid in U.S. currency now too, starting at $8 a day.

http://news.yahoo.com/businesses-quietly-switch-dollar-socialist-venezuela-040219420.html
Title: Re: The switch to dollars in socialist Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on May 26, 2015, 09:38:01 AM
"I have long held that Venezuela's salvation was bankruptcy, the inability of government to buy votes. That is now coming to pass. The danger is that the uprising can be cruelly violent "


For even a town to be too dependent on one industry often leads to demise.  And I would argue that having the government sell off the natural resources does not fully count as production or industry.

With a 6 year term, it is 2019 before voters can knock Maduro out?

It is much like our problems here only so much worse.  Very frustrating that people can't just vote in the policies that would address and correct the known ills even when they finally do have the chance.  Maduro, I assume, governed essentially the way people knew he would.  He and his supporters were just badly mistaken about the results of those policies.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 26, 2015, 10:18:20 AM
The first thing to know is how and why Maduro came to power. My background as a management consultant helped me figure out local power structures. Often owners trust certain people more than they trust checks and balances which results in trusted but not necessarily competent people in key posts. I saw it often in business.

Maduro was the most harmless lackey Chavez could find to fill the post of vice president. When Chavez died Maduro took his place. For the next election there was a lot of strange maneuvering, probably some of it illegal, to make Maduro the official candidate. During the campaign I heard loyal Chavistas declare that Maduro would be a total failure. Maduro is imitating Chavez but he does not have his organizing skills. In any case, it is hard to know where power really sits, most likely in Havana. But while Cuba is opening up the the US, Maduro is sticking with anti-imperialism as his political motif.

The other thing to consider is that drug running is big business which does not benefit the country but it sure enriches the drug barons. These are the people running the country. The US would be a big help in defusing the world's problems if they abandoned the totally useless, worse, counterproductive, war on drugs.

The next election coming up is for the National Assembly and it's supposed to be this year but the dates have not been announced. The consensus is for the opposition to win a majority but my prediction is the opposite, not based on the vote count but on fraud. In any case, amazing as it may seem, Chavismo still has a lot of popular support because the official propaganda has been able to pin the failure on capitalist greed. If economists don't understand economics, what can you expect of ordinary people?

Title: Venezuela Running ‘On Fumes’ As Bolivar Weakens
Post by: captainccs on May 26, 2015, 01:35:52 PM
May 26, 2015, 10:50 A.M. ET
Venezuela Running ‘On Fumes’ As Bolivar Weakens
By Dimitra DeFotis

Even though Venezuela tapped the International Monetary Fund in recent weeks to keep itself afloat, shoring up its currency is another matter.

The low price of oil has crushed the energy exporter’s budget. Russ Dallen, who contributes to a newsletter for investors, and writes about Latin America, writes today that “Venezuela’s situation continues to unravel at increasing speed as the bolivar tumbled 30% over just the last week, while the country’s international reserves simultaneously hit a new 12-year low, closing at $17.5 billion.” He says the weak currency and decline in reserves means the country is “essentially running on fumes.” He writes:

“Venezuela’s reserves have now fallen 21% since the beginning of the year, but more importantly $6.7 billion from their high just 2 months ago – a high that not only included $2.8 billion from mortgaging Citgo, $1.9 billion from the selling of $4 billion of oil receivables from the Dominican Republic, and the transfer of previously unreported China Fonden funds into the reserves.”

By tapping roughly $385 million in “Special Drawing Rights” (SDR) from the International Monetary Fund in recent weeks, for the first time in years, Venezuela has more financial liquidity and may have reduced its 2015 debt default risk. See our recent post on the subject: ”Venezuela Default Still Possible Despite IMF Money, Moody’s Says.”

Dallen et al explain SDRs in their weekly newsletter.

“The IMF created SDRs as an international reserve asset in 1969 to supplement all members’ reserves. Members are allowed to count the SDRs as part of their reserves and Venezuela is able to borrow those assets at an extremely favorable rate of interest (currently 0.05%, which frankly is much better than the over 30% that Venezuela is paying on some of its bonds). In 2009 as countries around the world were reeling from the worldwide economic crisis, the IMF decided to provide member nations a total of $250 billion in SDRs to shore up international liquidity. At that time, the IMF gave Venezuela 2.543 billion SDRs, which works out to about $3.578 billion in U.S. dollars (The SDR value floats against a basket of the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound, with one U.S. dollar currently worth 0.710769 SDR). Thus, the 276.6 million in SDR chips that Venezuela borrowed last month is worth approximately $385 million.”

Also see our September 2014 post, “Will Venezuela Default? Ask Hedge Funds” and this recent post: “Cheap Oil & Emerging Markets: India, Turkey Win; Venezuela Most At Risk.“

The iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) is down 1.6% today. The leveraged Direxion Daily Latin America Bull 3X Shares ETF (LBJ) is down 4.3%. The iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) is down nearly 0.3%, while the Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (ESD), a closed-end fund, was down 0.1% in recent trading.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Diosdado Cabello, president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, is among those being investigated by the United States on drug trafficking allegations. See the WSJ story, “Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub.”


http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/05/26/venezuela-running-on-fumes-as-bolivar-weakens/

Title: Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub
Post by: captainccs on May 26, 2015, 01:52:52 PM
Is the US finally turning the screws on Chavismo?



Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub
U.S. probe targets No. 2 official Diosdado Cabello, several others, on suspicion of drug trafficking and money laundering
By JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA and  JUAN FORERO
May 18, 2015 3:36 p.m. ET

U.S. prosecutors are investigating several high-ranking Venezuelan officials, including the president of the country’s congress, on suspicion that they have turned the country into a global hub for cocaine trafficking and money laundering, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the probes.

An elite unit of the Drug Enforcement Administration in Washington and federal prosecutors in New York and Miami are building cases using evidence provided by former cocaine traffickers, informants who were once close to top Venezuelan officials and defectors from the Venezuelan military, these people say.

A leading target, according to a Justice Department official and other American authorities, is National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello, considered the country’s second most-powerful man.

“There is extensive evidence to justify that he is one of the heads, if not the head, of the cartel,” said the Justice Department official, speaking of a group of military officers and top officials suspected of being involved in the drug trade. “He certainly is a main target.”

Representatives of Mr. Cabello and other officials didn’t return phone calls and emails requesting comment. In the past, Venezuelan authorities have rejected allegations of high-ranking involvement in the drug trade as an attempt by the U.S. to destabilize the leftist government in Caracas.

In an appearance on state television Wednesday, Mr. Cabello said he solicited a court-ordered travel ban on 22 executives and journalists from three Venezuelan news outlets that he has sued for publishing stories about the drug allegations earlier this year. “They accuse me of being a drug trafficker without a single piece of evidence and now I’m the bad guy,” Mr. Cabello said. “I feel offended, and none of them even said they’re sorry.”

The Obama administration isn’t directing or coordinating the investigations, which are being run by federal prosecutors who have wide leeway to target criminal suspects. But if the probes result in publicly disclosed indictments of Mr. Cabello and others, the resulting furor in Venezuela would likely plunge relations between the two countries into their most serious crisis since the late populist Hugo Chávez took office 16 years ago.

“It would be seismic,” said a U.S. official, of the expected Venezuelan reaction. “They will blame a vast right-wing conspiracy.”

U.S. authorities say they are far along in their investigations. But they say any indictments that may result might be sealed, making them secret until authorities can make arrests—something that would be difficult if not impossible unless the suspects travel abroad.

The investigations are a response to an explosion in drug trafficking in the oil-rich country, U.S. officials say. Under pressure in Colombia, where authorities aggressively battled the drug trade with $10 billion in U.S. aid since 2000, many Colombian traffickers moved operations to neighboring Venezuela, where U.S. law-enforcement officials say they found a government and military eager to permit and ultimately control cocaine smuggling through the country.

“Most of the high-end traffickers moved to Venezuela in that time,” said Joaquín Pérez, a Miami attorney who represents key Colombian traffickers who have acknowledged operating out of Venezuela.

Venezuela doesn’t produce coca, the leaf used to make cocaine, nor does it manufacture the drug. But the U.S. estimates that about 131 tons of cocaine, about half of the total cocaine produced in Colombia, moved through Venezuela in 2013, the last year for which data were available.

Prosecutors aren’t targeting President Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power since Mr. Chávez’s death two years ago. U.S. law-enforcement officials say they view several other Venezuelan officials and military officers as the de facto leaders of drug-trafficking organizations that use Venezuela as a launchpad for cocaine shipments to the U.S. as well as Europe.

‘A Criminal Organization’
“It is a criminal organization,” said the Justice Department official, referring to certain members of the upper echelons of the Venezuelan government and military.

Mildred Camero, who had been Mr. Chávez’s drug czar until being forced out abruptly in 2005, said Venezuela has “a government of narcotraffickers and money launderers.” She recently collaborated on a book, “Chavismo, Narcotrafficking and Militarism,” in which she alleged that drug-related corruption had penetrated the state, naming more than a dozen officials, including nine generals, who allegedly worked with smugglers.

Law-enforcement officials in the U.S. said that they have accelerated their investigations in the past two years, a period that has seen Venezuela’s economy worsen dramatically. Rampant crime has spiked, making Venezuela the continent’s most violent country and spurring people to emigrate.

The deepening crisis has made it easier for U.S. authorities to recruit informants, say those working to enlist people close to top Venezuelan officials. Colombian and Venezuelan drug traffickers have also arrived in the U.S., eager to provide information on Venezuelan officials in exchange for sentencing leniency and residency, U.S. officials say.

“Since the turmoil in Venezuela, we’ve had greater success in building these cases,” said a federal prosecutor from New York’s Eastern District who works on Venezuelan cases.

In January, U.S. investigators made a major catch when naval captain Leamsy Salazar defected and was brought to Washington. Mr. Salazar, who has said he headed Mr. Cabello’s security detail, told U.S. authorities that he witnessed Mr. Cabello supervise the launch of a large shipment of cocaine from Venezuela’s Paraguaná peninsula, people familiar with the case say.

Mr. Cabello has publicly railed against his former bodyguard, saying he didn’t head his security detail and calling him “an infiltrator” who has no proof of his involvement in drug trafficking. “Our conscience is totally clear,” he said in a radio interview.

Rafael Isea is another defector who has been talking to investigators, people familiar with the matter say. A former Venezuelan finance minister and governor of Aragua state, Mr. Isea fled Venezuela in 2013. People familiar with the case say Mr. Isea has told investigators that Walid Makled, a drug kingpin now in prison, paid off former Interior Minister Tarek El Aissami to get drug shipments through Venezuela.

Almost a year after leaving the country, Mr. Isea was accused of committing “financial irregularities” during his days as governor by Venezuela’s attorney general, and by Mr. El Aissami, who succeeded him as governor of Aragua.

“Today, Rafael Isea, that bandit and traitor, is a refugee in Washington where he has entered a program for protected witnesses in exchange for worthless information against Venezuela,” Mr. El Aissami said recently on Venezuelan television.

Mr. Isea has rejected the accusations as false, politically motivated and meant to discredit him.

In addition to Mr. El Aissami, other powerful officials under investigation include Hugo Carvajal, a former director of military intelligence; Nestor Reverol, the head of the National Guard; Jose David Cabello, Mr. Cabello’s brother, who is the industry minister and heads the country’s tax collection agency; and Gen. Luis Motta Dominguez, a National Guard general in charge of central Venezuela, say a half-dozen officials and people familiar with the investigations.

Calls and emails seeking comment from several government ministries as well as the president’s office went unanswered. Some officials have taken to social media to ridicule the U.S. investigations. A Twitter account in the name of Gen. Motta Dominguez earlier this year said: “We all know that whoever wants his green card and live in the US to visit Disney can just pick his leader and accuse him of being a narco. DEA tours will attend to them.”

Recruiting Defectors
To build cases, U.S. law-enforcement officials work with Venezuelan exiles and others to locate and recruit disaffected Venezuelans.

“We get people out of Venezuela, and we meet with them in Panama, Curaçao, Bogotá,” said a former intelligence operative who works with U.S. officials to recruit and debrief Venezuelans who have evidence of links between Venezuelan officials and the drug trade.

Former Venezuelan military officers and others living outside the country provide help by contacting their former comrades and urging them to defect, the recruiter said. If the defector can provide useful information, the recruiter said, he is flown to the U.S. and a new life.

“What does the U.S. want?” said the recruiter, who has been working Venezuelan cases since 2008. “The U.S. wants proof, evidence of relations between politicians, military officers and functionaries with drug traffickers and terrorist groups.”

Recently, at Washington’s posh Capital Grille restaurant, a few blocks from Congress, a Venezuelan operative working with a U.S. law enforcement agency took a call from a middleman for a high-level official in Caracas seeking to trade information for favorable treatment from the U.S.

“Tell him I’ll meet him in Panama next week,” said the operative, interrupting a lunch of oysters and steak.

The biggest target is 52-year-old Mr. Cabello, a former army lieutenant who forged a close link in the military academy with Mr. Chávez when the two played on the same baseball team. When Mr. Chávez launched an unsuccessful 1992 coup, Mr. Cabello led a four-tank column that attacked the presidential palace in downtown Caracas.

Mr. Cabello has been minister of public works and housing, which also gave him control of the airports and ports, as well as minister of the interior and vice president. He was also president for a few hours in April 2002 when Mr. Chávez was briefly ousted in a failed coup.

Many analysts and politicians in Venezuela say they believe Mr. Cabello’s power rivals that of Mr. Maduro and is rooted in his influence among Venezuela’s generals.

Julio Rodriguez, a retired colonel who knows Mr. Cabello from their days at Venezuela’s military academy, says that of 96 lieutenant colonels commanding battalions in Venezuela today, Mr. Cabello has close ties to 46.

The stocky and bull-necked Mr. Cabello, who often sports the standard Chavista uniform of red shirt and tri-color windbreaker in the red, yellow and blue of the Venezuelan flag, is host of a television program, “Hitting With the Sledge Hammer,” on state television, in which he uses telephone intercepts of opponents to attack and embarrass them. Mr. Rodriguez said he believes Mr. Cabello will never make any kind of a deal with the U.S. “Diosdado is a kamikaze,” he said. “He will never surrender.”

U.S. investigators have painstakingly built cases against Venezuelan officials by using information gathered from criminal cases brought in the U.S. In Miami, people familiar with the matter say a key building block in the investigations involved a drug-smuggling ring run by Roberto Mendez Hurtado. A Colombian, Mr. Mendez Hurtado moved cocaine into Apure state in western Venezuela and, according to those familiar with his case, had met with high-ranking Venezuelan officials. The cocaine was then taken by boat or flown directly to islands in the Caribbean before reaching American shores.

Mr. Mendez Hurtado pleaded guilty in Miami federal court and received a 19-year prison term in 2014. People close to that investigation say that Mr. Mendez Hurtado and his fellow traffickers wouldn’t have been able to operate without paying off a string of top military officers and government officials.

“The involvement of top officials in the National Guard and in the government of Venezuela in drug trafficking is very clear,” said a former Venezuelan National Guard officer who served in intelligence and in anti-narcotics and left the country last year frightened by the overwhelming corruption he saw daily.

“Everyone feels pressured,” he said. “Sooner or later everyone surrenders to drug trafficking.”

In another case, in Brooklyn, prosecutors have learned about the intricacies of the drug trade in Venezuela after breaking up a cocaine-smuggling ring led by Luis Frank Tello, who pleaded guilty, court documents show. The cocaine was brought in across the border from Colombia and, with the help of National Guard officers, shipped north, sometimes from the airport in Venezuela’s second-largest city, Maracaibo.

The U.S. investigations of Venezuelan officials have been going on for years, though investigators have sometimes been thwarted by politics.

In 2008, the U.S. Treasury Department put three top aides to then-President Chávez on a blacklist and froze any assets they might have in the U.S. Among the three was Mr. Carvajal, known as “El Pollo,” or the Chicken, then the head of military intelligence. The U.S. acted after extensive evidence surfaced earlier that year in the computers of a dead Colombian guerrilla commander of burgeoning cocaine-for-arms exchanges between the rebels and top Venezuelan generals and officials, according to the U.S. and Colombian governments.

In 2010, Manhattan prosecutors unsealed the indictment of Mr. Makled, the Venezuelan drug dealer accused of shipping tons of cocaine to the U.S. through the country’s main seaport of Puerto Cabello, which he allegedly controlled. Mr. Makled, who had been captured in Colombia, boasted of having 40 Venezuelan generals on his payroll.

“All my business associates are generals,” Mr. Makled said then to an associate in correspondence seen by The Wall Street Journal. “I’m telling you we dispatched 300,000 kilos of coke. I couldn’t have done it without the top of the government.”

DEA agents interviewed Mr. Makled in a Colombian prison as they prepared to extradite him to New York. But instead, Colombia extradited him in 2011 to Venezuela, where he was convicted of drug trafficking. This February, he was sentenced to 14 years and six months in jail.

Last July, American counter-drug officials nearly nabbed Mr. Carvajal, who had been indicted in Miami and New York on drug charges and detained in Aruba at the American government’s behest. But Dutch authorities released him to Venezuela, arguing that he had diplomatic immunity.

Upon Mr. Carvajal’s release, President Maduro praised the former intelligence chief as a dedicated anti-drug fighter who had set a worlds’ record capturing drug capos.

The U.S. is also gathering information from bankers and financiers who handle the money for top Venezuelan officials. Since last year, people familiar with the matter say the U.S. government has revoked the visas of at least 56 Venezuelans, including bankers and financiers whose identities haven’t been made public. Some have sought to cooperate with investigators in order to regain access to the U.S.

“They are flipping all these money brokers,” said a lawyer who is representing two Venezuelan financiers who have had their visas revoked. “The information is coming in very rapidly.”

—Christopher M. Matthews in New York contributed to this article.

Write to José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com and Juan Forero at Juan.Forero@wsj.com


 Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fvenezuelan-officials-suspected-of-turning-country-into-global-cocaine-hub-1431977784&ei=W9xkVfOaMuSOsQTx8YKYBA&usg=AFQjCNGdKzKzhU7XvCLr1pTyKZyeTkjP4g&sig2=0sXOIjicU5rSW8Kd4h0i0Q&bvm=bv.93990622,d.cWc)


Title: Shopping Revolution Style
Post by: captainccs on June 28, 2015, 07:03:15 PM
https://youtu.be/wErsKMUbCUE (https://youtu.be/wErsKMUbCUE)

The news in Spanish:
http://yusnaby.com/ocurre-nuevo-saqueo-en-venezuela-tolerado-por-la-policia/
Title: Stratfor: V's problems run deep
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 04, 2015, 06:25:04 AM
Summary

Old strategies are no longer yielding results for Venezuela. Nevertheless, in 2016, the Venezuelan government will continue prioritizing foreign debt payments and reinvestment into the energy sector at the expense of imports. So far, this strategy has allowed it to maintain oil production and avoid a disorderly default on its foreign debt. But challenges will arise as inflation frustrates voters and public funds become depleted.

To make matters worse, the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela's (PSUV's) potential loss of its legislative majority in Dec. 6 elections could diminish the government's firm control over the legislative branch. Moreover, renewed protests by the opposition in 2016 are likely to be more threatening than the wave of unrest that occurred in 2014, simply because the economy is in much worse condition. As the economy deteriorates and unrest mounts, the government's unity will be tested, and deeper splits could develop between the major political factions running the country.
Analysis

In the coming year, the Venezuelan government will continue relying on a strategy it has long used to avoid deeper economic turmoil. Since 2013, Venezuela's central government, which has a near monopoly on the legal disbursement of foreign currency in the country, has cut imports in an attempt to safeguard its dwindling stock of dollars. (In 2015, Venezuela slashed imports by about 25 percent from the year before.) Its goal is to maintain access to its limited foreign lenders at all costs, even though its strategy will spur inflation and exacerbate shortages of food and consumer goods.

This approach is unsustainable in the long run. Venezuela's high levels of public spending, combined with declining investments into the energy sector, the loss of foreign lending and severe economic distortions that encourage the arbitrage of currency and Venezuelan-produced fuel, have all sapped the country's public finances. These problems have only worsened since global oil prices began declining in 2014. Consequently, economic reform is politically unpalatable in Venezuela at the moment. Instead, the government has chosen to hope for the best and wait for oil prices to creep back up while it settles on a method of dealing with impending unrest and potential financial default.

Two events could challenge the government's wait-and-see approach to managing Venezuela's considerable economic difficulties. The first is the Dec. 6 legislative elections. If the opposition wins by a significant margin, it could gain enough political power to weaken the PSUV's unchallenged 15-year hold over the three branches of government. The second is the possibility of renewed political unrest from sections of the political opposition or even from disgruntled former supporters of the ruling party. With inflation in 2015 likely to exceed 200 percent compared with the previous year, a significant portion of the population is feeling the effects of rapid price increases and food scarcity. Although protests related to inflation have been limited in size and impact, inflation is set to increase in 2016 and could eventually lead to more frequent and sizable demonstrations largely from the urban and rural poor, the ruling party's largest support base.

The election poses the most immediate threat to the ruling party. If the opposition wins the election by a wide margin, it could wield considerable influence. A three-fifths majority (101 of the 167 legislative seats) would give the opposition the power to remove the vice president and Cabinet ministers. A supermajority of 112 legislators would allow the opposition to designate members of the crucial National Electoral Council, Venezuela's highest electoral body. It would also potentially empower the opposition to call for a Constitutional Assembly, which can be used to heavily modify the constitution. In the worst-case scenario, the legislative vote poses an existential threat to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, albeit one that it cannot simply cancel for fear of giving opposition forces a rallying point for protests.

But barring a supermajority for the opposition, the Venezuelan government has some measures it can rely on to keep the opposition in the legislature in check. It can still use the presidential veto or the Supreme Court's constitutional chamber to overturn legislative decisions. Using these bodies, in combination with selective concessions to the multiple factions within the opposition coalition, Maduro could create enough disruptions to limit the influence of an opposition-led National Assembly. Such an outcome would lead to greater political conflict between segments of the opposition and the government amid a deepening economic crisis that the government can do little to address.

Renewed opposition-led protests in 2016 will also threaten the government. In 2015, the promise that a legislative victory was within the opposition's grasp likely kept coordinated protests against the state in check. But next year, there will be no such limitations, and sections of the opposition such as the Voluntad Popular party and student organizations could ramp up their demonstrations against the government. With inflation and shortages far worse than those seen during the wave of protests that swept the country in 2014, renewed demonstrations pose a real risk to the government. The demands of any demonstrations could include Maduro's resignation; starting next year, Maduro can be legally recalled via referendum. If the unrest becomes severe enough, it could also force splits among the factions of the PSUV as members of the party's elite seek to safeguard their stakes in the national political system.

Meanwhile, the lack of an economic cushion for public finances will keep the risk of financial default alive next year. Meeting foreign debt payments has been an essential part of the ruling party's strategy to maintain access to Venezuela's limited foreign lending. During Maduro's tenure, the government began reducing imports to keep meeting those payments and lower the government's overall spending. But the PSUV and the government are in a difficult spot. About $16 billion in foreign debt payments is due in 2016, including interest payments. The government has already eaten through $7.2 billion in foreign reserves (32 percent of its total reserves) this year, and off-budget funds that previously bolstered additional spending, such as the National Development Fund, are likely heavily drawn down because of the reduced availability of dollars from oil exports. With few additional sources of revenue outside of state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela's income, default in the coming year is plausible. At this point, Caracas' likely options are to delay default by conducting a voluntary Petroleos de Venezuela bond swap or to sell its increasingly limited assets, although the success of such measures is highly dependent on investors' and bondholders' perceptions of the country.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 04, 2015, 09:11:03 AM
The discontent is palpable on the street, the queues when something arrives are endless, yet things aren't bad enough for people to take to the streets to protest. People still believe the election will produce some favorable change in the legislature. I'm not that sanguine, I believe the government will find ways to win by fraud. The OAS is not being allowed to monitor the election. What do they have to hide? Fraud, what else?

Those of us with dollars can buy stuff via Amazon. There is an old rule still in place that exempts packages under $100 from duties and VAT tax which can increase the cost by one third. Unbelievable as it may seem I've brought in deodorant, bath soap, face towels, socks, and briefs, everyday items you guy don't even have to think about. Fresh vegetables and fruit are plentiful and very inexpensive by US standards. It's the manufactured goods that are scarce. Two weeks ago eggs disappeared when they were regulated at half the going rate. Then, as if by magic, they reappeared yesterday and huge queues ensued for people to get them. With the election set for Sunday, one has to wonder...

Yesterday I had an acrylic filling replaced. Total cost $20.00 at free market rates. 10 to 15% of US rates. A decent haircut was 75 cents! It's the poor who are getting screwed.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on December 04, 2015, 09:37:04 AM
"Two weeks ago eggs disappeared when they were regulated at half the going rate. Then, as if by magic, they reappeared yesterday and huge queues ensued for people to get them. "

   - And we in the US want to copy the centrally planned and controlled economies.

Good luck in the election Denny.  I love getting the first-hand reports without the travel.   )
Title: OPEC Maintains Crude Production as Group Defers Output Target
Post by: captainccs on December 04, 2015, 10:03:34 AM
Despite pleading, begging, and groveling by the Maduro government, OPEC keeps pumping up the volume. Take that Maduro!


OPEC Maintains Crude Production as Group Defers Output Target
December 4, 2015 — 12:09 PM EST

- Group to wait until June meeting to confirm output ceiling
- Nigeria minister says OPEC to keep output at 31.5 million b/d

OPEC will maintain production at current levels and refrained from setting an official output target, a continuation of the Saudi Arabian-led policy that’s driven prices to a six-year low.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to retain production at 31.5 million barrels a day, group President Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu told reporters on Friday, after a meeting of OPEC ministers in Vienna. OPEC will wait until its next meeting in June to confirm its output target, said Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri.

“Effectively it’s ceilingless,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on Friday, after returning from the meeting with his OPEC counterparts. “Everyone does whatever they want. I think there will be a decision about how to act on the market in the second quarter of 2016.”

Guided by its biggest producer Saudi Arabia, OPEC has maintained output to force higher-cost producers to scale back their operations. The group also needs to prepare for increased shipments from Iran when international sanctions are lifted. OPEC has pumped more than its previous collective target of 30 million barrels a day the past 18 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The volume maximizing strategy goes on for OPEC,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG Zurich. “It’s at least better to give up a useless ceiling. The burden to adjust supply remains on non-OPEC producers.”

OPEC pumped 31.5 million barrels a day in November, Zanganeh said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/opec-maintains-crude-production-as-group-defers-output-target-ihryzilb
Title: Venezuela On Edge On The Eve Of The December 6th.
Post by: captainccs on December 06, 2015, 01:20:11 AM
Venezuela On Edge On The Eve Of The December 6th.



Arrived only a few hours ago on Saturday and all I can say is that people are on the edge tonight wondering what will happen tomorrow. The cockiness of three weeks ago is not as blatant. Yes, the opposition will get a majority, but after 16 years of Chavismo people (and rumors) are rampant about possible tricks and maneuvers by the government.

This was not helped by the fact that there were Internet blackouts in many parts of the country today. The Head of Conatel, the telecom regulator denied this, but friends tell me that if you tried to call CANTV to report the problems, they were not even answering the phone.

The result is an atmosphere of mistrust and skepticism about what may or may not happen tomorrow. Or the day after, for that matter…

On the positive news front, the Electoral Board announced that witnesses for the opposition outnumbered those of Chavismo’s PSUV by 2,000, a clear indication of the inability of Chavismo to mobilize people like it used to. Many friends also reporting that numerous polling stations have seen no presence of pro-Government members, leading to the installation of the process without them.

Meanwhile, as the international media is harassed as they arrive in Venezuela and also as they try to cover the elections, Chavismo is selling it as a campaign against the country, even citing the number of positive (380), neutral (75) and positive (24) news items about the country. Which according to Chavismo, reflects this campaign and not reality.

Never mind that many reporters have had heir equipment confiscated at the airport and many have been told they can not take pictures of mundane events and their media has been erased.

Meanwhile visiting former Presidents managed to obtain a promise from the Government that political prisoners would be allowed to vote (They were not going to), while the opposition has created a parallel system of observation of the electoral process by foreign dignitaries, as well as social media tools to denounce problems tomorrow with the voting process.

Meanwhile, some pollsters claim to have seen a Maduro resurgence (!!!!), while others say that the result will depend on what Chavismo and now lukewarm Chavistas do. If the latter decide to stay home, the opposition will squeak by, but if they decide to go and express their unhappiness the opposition could enjoy a huge victory, even if short of the super majority.

I am sticking to my guns of a simple majority, roughly 55-58% of Deputies, hoping that former Chavistas are so disenchanted that they prove me wrong. I like the fact that Chavistas are outnumbered by the opposition witnesses and that they have been absent from the installations of the polling stations. But I just wonder if they will they be absent from voting too…

Abstention will be key and pollsters have little confidence that they have a handle on their number. Add proportionality, gerrymandering, fraud and tricks and numerical predictions are really hard to make.

I will do my usual scan throughout Caracas and report solid news, if such an animal exists before midnight tomorrow.

Best of luck to Venezuela from the Devil!

http://devilexcrement.com/2015/12/05/venezuela-on-edge-on-the-eve-of-the-september-6th-parliamentary-vote/

---------------------------------------------------

3 Responses to “Venezuela On Edge On The Eve Of The December 6th. Parliamentary Vote”

Morpheous Says:

December 6, 2015 at 12:07 am
Here I quote some content from the link at the bottom:

But analysts said Venezuela’s vote on Sunday will be less decisive, and potentially volatile, since opposition parties have little in common beyond their disdain for Maduro.

His term as president runs until 2019, unless the opposition wins a big enough majority to force him out by constitutional means.

If the opposition wins a smaller majority, Maduro could manipulate the result in his favor or just rule by presidential decree, said analyst Luis Vicente Leon, head of Datanalisis.

“The assembly could seek to impeach the president, but he could try to dissolve the congress,” said Leon.

Another senior opposition figure, Henrique Capriles, warned opposition radicals against taking to the streets after Sunday’s vote.

“Venezuela is a bomb ready to explode,” he told AFP.

http://news.yahoo.com/oil-rich-cash-poor-venezuela-tense-election-015243351.html

Reply

IslandCanuck Says:

December 6, 2015 at 12:45 am
We lost CANTV ABA around 3.30 pm here in Isla Margarita but I just woke up and checked it and it’s working again (1 am).

It’s going to be a very interesting day and evening.
Everyone vote early and often.

Reply

Dean A Nash Says:

December 6, 2015 at 3:21 am
Stay safe and good luck. My two cents (worth much less) is that the cheating will be massive enough to be obvious, but not odorous enough to cause an outright breakdown of order. Backup prediction: Massive cheating so obvious it changes the winner and causes the breakdown of order (this would all be part of the plan) in order for the government to step in and restore order (i.e. take away more freedom.)

Six one way, half a dozen the other. The end result remains the same: a clueless dictatorship dragging the country further down the rabbit hole. Hope I’m wrong.

Reply
Title: The Weather on Election Day
Post by: captainccs on December 06, 2015, 02:27:27 AM
05:56
The Sun is coming out as usual but the clouds promise rain later in the day. Will report when I get from voting.

07:00
Left the house to go vote. The morning is cool and overcast, perfect for walking without breaking into a sweat. My polling station is about 5 Kms the way the crow flies. The first polling station I come to has a long queue but it has yet to open. I buy fresh turmeric (cúrcuma) on the way.

08:27
I arrive at my polling station. There are hardly any queues, a bad sign. It takes about 15 minutes to vote.

11:20
I arrive back home. That takes care of half my weekly walking. I took a different route to go past other polling stations. There is nothing unusual to report, just people going about their business. The siege mentality of previos elections is gone but there are plenty rumors going around. The first two polling stations I went past on the way home didn't have any visible queues. As I continued west to slightly lower middle class I found two very long queues.

Here is a report from "The Devil." Nothing much to report either.

http://devilexcrement.com/2015/12/06/venezuelan-2016-parliamentary-elections-are-here/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 06, 2015, 08:39:35 AM
Denny:

Good to have your reports and you with us once again.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 06, 2015, 08:42:50 AM
Crafty:

I'm updating my previous post to keep it all together. Nothing much to report, really.
Title: The Slow Death of Chavismo
Post by: captainccs on December 06, 2015, 12:33:09 PM
Quote
As the hand-picked successor of Hugo Chávez, the country’s longstanding former leader, Maduro inherited one of the most innovative and successful propaganda models in the world, developed by Chávez between 1998 and 2002. Why hasn’t Maduro been able to use it?

If one has to grant Chavez an ability it was charisma. Two people who were not Chavistas but who had the opportunity to meet the man in person told me personally about his magnetic personality. One told me about the back stage happenings at an Aló Presidente where Chavez would greet workers by name and ask about their problems. Maduro, by contrast, was the most inept person he could find for the job of vice president. As a management consultant I discovered that the qualifications for high management position in Venezuela is trustworthiness. Owner want someone who they can trust not to defraud them. In politics they want someone who won't take their power away from them. Maduro was such a choice, bus driver and body guard! I recall riding the subway before the election that made Maduro president. A Chavista woman was saying out loud, for all to hear, that Maduro would be a disaster. Her words were prophetic.


The Slow Death of Chavismo

Foreign Policy Magazine   
Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez
December 6, 2015

Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, seems to be stumbling towards electoral defeat in the country’s legislative elections today, potentially triggering a long goodbye for the country’s seventeen-year-old socialist revolution. Polls show that, while Venezuelans may differ somewhat when assigning blame for their country’s ongoing economic collapse, discontent is nearly universal and only about 20 to 25 percent approve of the president himself. As the hand-picked successor of Hugo Chávez, the country’s longstanding former leader, Maduro inherited one of the most innovative and successful propaganda models in the world, developed by Chávez between 1998 and 2002. Why hasn’t Maduro been able to use it?

Hugo Chávez’s 14-year stint at the helm of Venezuela’s revolutionary government produced many uncertainties for its population: a new constitution, radical reforms, soaring inflation, and a veritable boom in street crime and urban violence, to name but a few. But for most of that time, one thing was certain. Every Sunday, viewers could watch Chávez’s television talk-show Aló Presidente, an eclectic mix of variety show, televangelical preaching, real-time government, and musical extravaganza. Chávez used his show, which was broadcast on the state television channel, to share his views on matters ranging from baseball to geopolitics, answer phone calls from the populace, share personal anecdotes, or spout his trademark ideological pedagogy, liberally peppered with outbursts of song.

On the show, Chávez would expropriate businesses, renounce Venezuela’s membership in international associations, and expel ambassadors; he might even indulge in mobilizing troops to the Colombian border or announce modifications to the flag, currency, and other national symbols. For many Venezuelans, Aló Presidente represented a window into national events and decisions, taking place in real time — a reality show which affected the lives of its viewers. Chávez also used the show to reward his supporters with gifts and patronage with the dramatic beneficence of a Caesar in a coliseum — deciding, if not matters of life and death, then at least the destinies of individual citizens, by doling out everything from scholarships and jobs to cooking supplies, all to thunderous applause.

For Venezuelans, Aló Presidente became a ready reminder of the benefits of working with the regime — and Chávez’s largesse contrasted with threats, invectives, and even arrest orders against those who broke rank. When ministers were regularly chastised, fired, and replaced on air, viewers received a clear message: the government’s many failures were due to poor execution of Chávez’s otherwise infallible plans by incompetent minions. He claimed, for example, that an important bridge had been felled by El Niño (not lack of maintenance); that periods of scarcity were the fault of hoarders or speculators (not economic mismanagement); and that the lights went out in several cities because an iguana had somehow got loose in the electrical mainframe. Conspiratorial scare tactics likewise abounded: shadowy opposition intrigues were alleged; CIA cabals brandished “cancer injections” and “earthquake rays”; Coke Zero (but not other Coca-Cola products) was accused of being poisonous. There were even cautionary tales such as the story of a once-thriving civilization on Mars brought low by the adoption of capitalism.

Ironically, while excoriating capitalism, Chávez’s state media empire learned to wield its best-known commercial and marketing tricks in pushing its main product: Chávez himself. Foreign heads of state and left-leaning international celebrities, such as Naomi Campbell, Danny Glover, and Sean Penn, would appear on the show, lending their star power to the Chávez brand of permanent revolution.

Aló Presidente represented the perfect populist vehicle: it kept Chávez in the public eye, helped define his political agenda, and drove the media conversation during any given week. When the Sunday afternoon format proved too limiting, Chávez became heavily reliant on cadenas, a type of broadcast permitted under Venezuelan law that gives presidents a constitutional prerogative to seize airtime on every radio and TV station for use in emergencies, or to broadcast major events such as the Venezuelan equivalent of the United States’ yearly State of the Union speech. Undeterred by convention, Chávez began serially invoking the law to deliver multi-hour speeches, meticulously timed to moments when opposition leaders were speaking elsewhere.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/slow-death-chavismo-174114479.html
Title: Landslide Victory! 68% ~ 32%
Post by: captainccs on December 06, 2015, 09:51:30 PM
The National Assembly has 165 deputies and three levels of majority for approving different types of legislation. The opposition has gained absolute control. Maduro has conceded.

Total                   165 diputados
1/2 mayoría simple       83 diputados
3/5                      99 diputados
2/3 mayoría calificada  110 diputados

When the announcement was made the opposition had won 99 deputies, the Chavistas 46 and 20 were still undecided. The opposition estimates to have won a total of 113 which would give them absolute control of the legislature.

To tell the truth, I was not a believer in such a landslide victory.
Title: Now comes the hard part
Post by: captainccs on December 07, 2015, 04:01:24 AM
Taking over the legislature by winning an election was the easy part. For a dictatorship to stay in power it has to be ruthless. Chavismo was not ruthless enough for its own good. Initially it relied on Chavez's charisma something that Maduro tried to imitate but failed to deliver. Defection from Chavismo at the top has been ongoing. A large number of Chavistas were socialist ideologues who left the party as they became disillusioned with how the country was being run. This has been ongoing for well over a decade. Just yesterday I met one such defector, a historian who had helped write the 1999 constitution and who was in the seat of power. He quit the party on ideological grounds. At the other end of the scale, there is the economic defector and their number is large enough to swing elections by landslides:

Quote
"I used to be a proud Chavista," said Rodrigo Duran, a 28-year-old security guard who switched allegiance in his vote on Sunday. "But how can I carry on when my salary doesn't allow me to feed my children? They deceived us."

The great difficulty is to bring the country back to economic health. Setting price controls is comparatively painless but it introduces terrific economic distortions. Just last week I paid $0.75 for a haircut. For the country to get back to economic sanity prices have to fit into the globalized economy. Our haircuts don't have to be priced at the same rate as in Los Angeles or Miami but they have to be high enough to allow the barber to buy products whose prices are globally set or at least influenced by global commerce. This adjustment, eliminating price controls, can be very painful, certainly much more painful than setting price controls in the first place. This pain was the reason a previous president, Carlos Andrés Pérez, was indicted (on trumped up charges) and removed from office.

Some countries, like Red China, managed the transition quite well. Others, like Russia, did not. How well will Venezuela cope?

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Now comes the hard part
Post by: G M on December 07, 2015, 05:39:35 AM
Taking over the legislature by winning an election was the easy part. For a dictatorship to stay in power it has to be ruthless. Chavismo was not ruthless enough for its own good. Initially it relied on Chavez's charisma something that Maduro tried to imitate but failed to deliver. Defection from Chavismo at the top has been ongoing. A large number of Chavistas were socialist ideologues who left the party as they became disillusioned with how the country was being run. This has been ongoing for well over a decade. Just yesterday I met one such defector, a historian who had helped write the 1999 constitution and who was in the seat of power. He quit the party on ideological grounds. At the other end of the scale, there is the economic defector and their number is large enough to swing elections by landslides:

Quote
"I used to be a proud Chavista," said Rodrigo Duran, a 28-year-old security guard who switched allegiance in his vote on Sunday. "But how can I carry on when my salary doesn't allow me to feed my children? They deceived us."

The great difficulty is to bring the country back to economic health. Setting price controls is comparatively painless but it introduces terrific economic distortions. Just last week I paid $0.75 for a haircut. For the country to get back to economic sanity prices have to fit into the globalized economy. Our haircuts don't have to be priced at the same rate as in Los Angeles or Miami but they have to be high enough to allow the barber to buy products whose prices are globally set or at least influenced by global commerce. This adjustment, eliminating price controls, can be very painful, certainly much more painful than setting price controls in the first place. This pain was the reason a previous president, Carlos Andrés Pérez, was indicted (on trumped up charges) and removed from office.

Some countries, like Red China, managed the transition quite well. Others, like Russia, did not. How well will Venezuela cope?

Denny Schlesinger
 


Hopefully it will look to lessons learned from Chile and other countries.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_Chile
Title: Venezuela opposition wins supermajority in National Assembly
Post by: captainccs on December 09, 2015, 03:28:06 AM
Opposition Wins 2/3rds Supermajority

The number of seats is 167, not 165 as I reported earlier and 2/3rds of 167 is exactly 112. There are three levels of majority to approve different kinds of laws and appointments. Earlier the discussion was about wether maduro could stifle a simple majority by the opposition but the supermajority sweeps away those fears. Having the supermajority means that the opposition can start dismantling the rubber stamp supreme court which has been one of the enforcers of the Chavista dictatorship. The Chavista dictatorship tried hard to wear sheep's clothing and in many ways it succeeded. That is now over.

I worry when any party has absolute majority in all three powers, executive, legislative and judiciary. It's a recipe for extremism and abuse. Our democracy started to go wrong when AD controlled both the presidency and the legislature. Not only was it a rubber stamp congress but it went so far as to give the president powers to rule by decree thereby taking congress (themselves) out of the game. The result was a poor presidency that ended with Carlos Andres Perez (CAP) being removed on trumped up charges. From there to Chávez was just continual decline as people got fed up with the so called democrats who, by the way, were also socialists.

When Chávez got the National Assembly to give him the same powers congress had given CAP, the opposition cried foul. But the example had been set by the so called democratic powers decades earlier. In fact, many of the things Chávez did which the opposition criticized, had already been done during the democracy. My friends hated me for pointing this out.

I'm not defending Chávez in any way, I'm condemning democracy without working separation of powers. I love split governments, gridlock, it's safer that way.

The election and the aftermath has been very quiet. The Chavista thugs (Círculos Bolivarianos) didn't take to the street. Maduro recanted on his previous threat to take power by force if they lost the election. Evidently electoral fraud was minimal or non-existent. Yesterday I was talking to an ex-sergeant of the national guard who had been dismissed early in the Chávez years when Chávez was padding the military in his favor. He commented that someone must have put the fear of god into top government people for this to happen. I really don't know how things happen at those levels and rumors are as abundant as flies.

My hope is that many of the Chavista mismanagements, to give them a kinder name, will be reversed, like selling under-priced oil to other socialist governments, we can't afford it and we don't need to buy their votes at the UN or at the OAS. That was Chávez's motivation. But I also hope that it does not turn into a witch hunt. We all must live in the same house.

Julio Borges, the fellow pictured below, is a good candidate for president of the National Assembly. He ran for the presidency of the republic but he just does not have the public personality to create enough of a following.




Venezuela opposition wins supermajority in National Assembly

Associated Press   
JOSHUA GOODMAN
December 8, 2015

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/julio-borjes.jpg)
Opposition lawmaker Julio Borges, who was reelected to Congress, gives thumbs up as he arrives for a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela, Monday, Dec. 7, 2015, one day after congressional elections. Venezuela's opposition won control of the National Assembly by a landslide in Sunday's election, stunning the ruling party and altering the balance of power 17 years after the late Hugo Chávez was elected president. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's opposition won a key two-thirds majority in the National Assembly in legislative voting, according to final results released Tuesday, dramatically strengthening its hand in any bid to wrest power from President Nicolas Maduro after 17 years of socialist rule.

More than 48 hours after polls closed, the National Electoral Council published the final tally on its website, confirming that the last two undecided races broke the opposition coalition's way, giving them 112 out of 167 seats in the National Assembly that's sworn in next month. The ruling socialist party and its allies got 55 seats.

The publication ends two days of suspense in which Maduro's opponents claimed a much-larger margin of victory than initially announced by electoral authorities, who were slow to tabulate and release results that gave a full picture of the magnitude of the Democratic Unity opposition alliance's landslide.

The outcome, better than any of the opposition's most-optimistic forecasts, gives the coalition an unprecedented strength in trying to rein in Maduro as well as the votes needed to sack Supreme Court justices and even remove Maduro from office by convoking an assembly to rewrite Hugo Chávez's 1999 constitution.

Although divided government should foster negotiations, Maduro in his first remarks following the results showed little sign of moderating the radical course that voters rejected.

Even while recognizing defeat, the former bus driver and union organizer blamed the "circumstantial" loss on a right-wing "counterrevolution" trying to sabotage Venezuela's oil-dependent economy and destabilize the government.

On Tuesday, Maduro visited Chávez's mausoleum in the 23 of January hillside slum where the government suffered a shock loss in Sunday's vote. Accompanied by members of his top military command, he accused his opponents of sowing discrimination and class hatred, cautioning workers who voted for the opposition that they would regret their decision to abandon support for the government.

"The bad guys won, like the bad guys always do, through lies and fraud," said Maduro. "Workers of the fatherland know that you have a president, a son of Chávez, who will protect you."

Hardliners in the notoriously fractious opposition seem similarly inflexible, preferring to talk about ending Maduro's rule before his term ends in 2019 rather than resolving Venezuela's triple-digit inflation, plunging currency and the widespread shortages expected to worsen in January as businesses close for the summer vacation.

Moderates however are calling for dialogue to give Maduro a chance to roll back policies they blame for the unprecedented economic crisis. But with most Venezuelans bracing for more hardship as oil prices, the lifeblood of the economy, hover near a seven-year low, even they recognize the window for change is small and closing fast.

"If Maduro doesn't change we'll have to change the government," Gov. Henrique Capriles, who lost to Maduro in 2013 presidential elections, told The Associated Press. "But the opposition's response to the economic crisis right now can't be more politics."

___

Joshua Goodman in on Twitter: twitter.com/apjoshgoodman. His work can be found at http://bigstory.ap.org/journalist/joshua-goodman


https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-opposition-wins-supermajority-national-assembly-232112702.html
Title: Venezuelan officials accused of taking drug pay-offs in U.S. indictment
Post by: captainccs on December 16, 2015, 06:31:05 PM
The Venezuelan National Guard is corrupt to the core.



Venezuelan officials accused of taking drug pay-offs in U.S. indictment
Reuters By Nate Raymond
1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two senior Venezuelan officials facing U.S. drug trafficking charges are accused in an indictment of taking payments from narcotics traffickers and alerting them to drug raids, according to a person with knowledge of the case.

Nestor Reverol, the head of Venezuela's National Guard, and Edylberto Molina, a former deputy head of the anti-narcotics agency and currently a military attache posted in Germany, are named in the indictment that prosecutors are preparing to unseal, people familiar with the case told Reuters.

In addition to tipping traffickers off about raids, the two are charged with taking other steps to hinder anti-narcotics investigations, the person told Reuters on Wednesday.

Reverol, the former head of Venezuela's anti-narcotics agency, would be one of the highest-ranking Venezuelan officials to face U.S. drug charges. He could not be reached for comment.

He has previously rejected U.S. accusations that Venezuela has failed to curb illicit drug shipments and has touted the National Guard's success in cracking down on the flow of cocaine from neighboring Colombia.

Venezuela’s embassy in Berlin did not respond to an email requesting contact information for Molina. The diplomat has been a general in the National Guard, which is the branch of the armed forces that controls Venezuela's borders.

A National Guard official did not immediately respond to a voice mail seeking comment. An Information Ministry official said the ministry had no comment on Reverol.

The indictment pending in federal court in Brooklyn, New York, which the people said was expected to be unveiled in January, comes as the United States investigates the suspected involvement of senior Venezuelan officials in the cocaine trade.

The National Guard issued a series of Tweets in Reverol's defense on Tuesday night using the hashtag #NestorReverolSoldierOfTheFatherland and saying he should be praised for capturing more than 100 drugs bosses.

In televised comments on Wednesday, Socialist Party leader Jorge Rodriguez accused the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) of drug trafficking in Venezuela and said the accusations were an "aggression" against the country's armed forces.

“There are two countries, one that produces drugs and another that shoves it up its nose. One produces and the other consumes, and neither of those two countries is Venezuela," he said, referring to Colombia and the United States respectively.

The U.S. Justice Department and the DEA have declined to comment on the case.

U.S. prosecutors have unsealed indictments charging at least five former Venezuelan officials with drug trafficking crimes over the past four years, according to records from Florida and New York district courts.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro dismisses charges of official involvement in drug trafficking as an international right-wing campaign to discredit socialism in Venezuela.

Two other former officials with the National Guard have been indicted on U.S. drugs charges in recent years.

One of them, former captain Vassyly Villarroel Ramirez, was indicted in 2011 on cocaine-trafficking charges. The U.S. Treasury put Villarroel on its drug "kingpin" list in 2013, and Venezuela arrested him in July on drug trafficking charges.

Lawyers for Villarroel could not be reached for comment.

Two nephews of Venezuelan first lady Cilia Flores were arrested in Haiti last month and indicted in federal court in Manhattan on cocaine trafficking charges. They are scheduled to next appear in court on Thursday.

(Additional reporting by Julia Harte in Washington and Brian Ellsworth in Caracas; Editing by Stuart Grudgings)

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelan-officials-accused-taking-drug-pay-offs-u-003335054.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 16, 2015, 06:47:20 PM
Corruption, corruption everywhere.


Venezuela's soccer chief fighting extradition to US
Associated Press
2 hours ago

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's longtime soccer chief is fighting his extradition to the U.S. from Switzerland and asking to be judged in his home country on charges of corruption at soccer's governing body.

Lawyers for Rafael Esquivel told Venezuelan newspaper El Universal Wednesday that they've asked prosecutors to request his extradition.

Esquivel was arrested in May in Zurich as part of the U.S. and Swiss investigations into corruption at FIFA. In seeking his extradition to Venezuela his lawyers may be betting that the 69-year-old could benefit from his political connections in the socialist administration of President Nicolas Maduro or receive a more lenient punishment such as home arrest if he pleads guilty.

Venezuela's soccer federation, which Esquivel led since 1988 until the time of his arrest, declined to comment.


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelas-soccer-chief-fighting-extradition-us-235353831.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on December 16, 2015, 08:45:43 PM
"Corruption, corruption everywhere."

Denny,

Do you still invest in stocks?   I recall you had a lot of good recommendations back in the Gilder days.


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 17, 2015, 01:51:17 AM
George Gilder was/is a brilliant fellow but he is no investor and the Gilder Days ended badly because he didn't have an exit strategy and I was too green to know that one need such a strategy. Yes, I'm still investing and learning but now I'm entirely self directed so I have no one but myself to blame or congratulate for my results. I post about investing as captainccs at The Motley Fool. Investing is a fascinating world!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on December 17, 2015, 05:55:48 AM
Yes Gilder is brilliant.   He saw the wave coming.   But no one can predict when it will crash against the rocks and what will rise up from the debris.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 17, 2015, 07:22:02 AM
Following Gilder made me money at first and then lost me far more. 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on December 17, 2015, 09:15:03 AM
Same here...
Title: Venezuela opposition: Court blocking of 4 lawmakers a 'coup'
Post by: captainccs on January 02, 2016, 03:25:00 AM
Government dirty tricks in the open, they are trying to block the opposition's 2/3 rd. supermajority by preventing three or more deputies from taking their seats. The so called Supreme Court is nothing but a Chavista rubber stamp having been stuffed with Chavista acolytes. One of the aims of the supermajority was to clean up the Supreme Court.

While I understand the desire of the winners to get their rewards I don't think that supermajority is a good idea either. Too much power makes any and all governments dangerous, precisely the reason the Founding Fathers insisted on separation of powers, checks and balances. I love gridlock, it keeps rulers in check.
 

Venezuela opposition: Court blocking of 4 lawmakers a 'coup'
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
December 31, 2015 9:56 AM

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's opposition is calling a Supreme Court decision that bars four recently-elected lawmakers from taking their seats in the National Assembly part of a "judicial coup" and has vowed to uphold the voters' will when a new session starts next week.

The high court released a decision late Wednesday suspending the inauguration of four of the lawmakers declared winners after the opposition swept Dec. 6 legislative elections. Three are anti-government and one is a member of the ruling socialist party. The ruling comes in response to a challenge filed by supporters of the socialist party. The court did not explain the legal justification behind its decision.

The ruling could undermine the opposition's newly won two-thirds legislative "super-majority" and limit its power.

Opposition leaders are pledging that the barred lawmakers will attend the first session of the new congress on Jan. 5. Lawmaker Julio Borges, one of two favorites to be the next assembly president, said President Nicolas Maduro could not be allowed to overturn the will of the people.

"The National Assembly represents the sovereignty of the people, and the president is trying to violate that using a biased court," he wrote on Twitter. "On Jan. 5, we will swear in the National Assembly and preserve that sovereignty as the Venezuelan people and international observers look on."

The opposition won a landslide victory earlier this month, taking control of congress for the first time in more than a decade. The coalition captured 112 of 167 seats, giving it a crucial two-thirds majority by one seat. That super-majority would allow government critics to censure top officials and could open the door to recalling Maduro or even rewriting the constitution.

Opposition coalition spokesman Jesus Torrealba released an open letter Wednesday asking international bodies including the United Nations and the European Union to help stop the government from stealing back control of the legislature.

"The country, the region and the world face a judicial coup d'état attempt against the decision the Venezuelan people made at the ballot box," he wrote.

The ruling has not provoked popular unrest in the middle of weeks-long winter vacations. In Caracas, the streets were unusually empty, save for groups of people launching fireworks and drinking rum in anticipation of the new year.

But Tuesday's swearing in ceremony could be a tinderbox. Government supporters have promised to rally outside the National Assembly, and the opposition is calling for government critics to join all 112 elected deputies in a march to the building.

The hardline members of the opposition who led a wave of bloody 2014 street protests are calling for a show of force.

"The best response to this moribund regime is to show in the streets how many of us there are on Jan. 5," opposition leader Freddy Guevara said.

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-opposition-court-blocking-4-lawmakers-coup-140858177.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 02, 2016, 10:08:25 AM
" I don't think that supermajority is a good idea either. Too much power makes any and all governments dangerous, precisely the reason the Founding Fathers insisted on separation of powers, checks and balances."


Great point.  I don't want to be ruled by the elite either, or by majorities or even by super majorities.  I don't want to be ruled by anyone.  We need some basic rules of conduct in a civilized society that leaves people with all their basic freedoms intact.  We need a public sector that is only used for the things that need to  be done by a public sector.   In business, the government should be the impartial referee, not your supplier, teammate or competitor.
Title: Wrong man for the job
Post by: captainccs on January 04, 2016, 04:40:20 AM
Chavez was very much the product of the terrible mismanagement of our two old mainline parties AD and COPEI that ruled the country for half a century. Now they've elected an old combative ADECO to lead the opposition in the National Assembly. Big mistake.

The irony is that during all those years I voted for AD as the lesser evil. This old article of mine might be of interest:

Quote
August 6, 2006
Uslar Pietri, Venezuelan Democracy's Undertaker

Arturo Uslar Pietri was considered one of the leading Venezuelan intellectuals of the 20th century. He certainly was entertaining and educational on TV where he addressed his "invisible friends." He was also a failed politician who ran for president and lost badly. Carlos Andrés Perez (CAP) was of the opinion that, having failed to reach power via elections, Uslar Pietri was trying to reach a position of power through machination.

http://softwaretimes.com/files/uslar%20pietri,%20venezuelan%20d.html


Combative Venezuela opposition leader will head congress
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
10 hours ago
 
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — An outspoken opposition leader known for embracing confrontation was chosen Sunday to head Venezuela's new congress when it opens in two days as a counterweight to the socialist administration.

The newly elected opposition majority voted to make Henry Ramos Allup the president of the National Assembly when it is seated Tuesday. The new session will be the first time foes of the administration have had control of any government institution in more than a decade.

Ramos, 72, is a divisive figure that government supporters love to hate as much for his acerbic tongue as for his leadership in the once-hegemonic Democratic Action party that co-governed Venezuela for decades before the late President Hugo Chavez won power in 1998 and began his leftist program.

Ramos' rival for the legislative presidency was Julio Borges, 46, a member of the Justice First party, a newer, moderate movement that won the biggest bloc of opposition seats.

Although Ramos hasn't joined in street protests against the government, he won with the help of opposition hard-liners who favor such demonstrations and other confrontation with President Nicolas Maduro's administration. Borges' party advocates a focus on negotiation and elections.

Ramos said the new National Assembly will show Venezuelans a more democratic way forward.

"We ask the people to watch us, to demand more of us, and keep an eye on what we do to make sure that we honor our commitment," he said.

Ramos' supporters praise him as an experienced operative well-positioned to wrangle the dozens of parties that make up Venezuela's opposition coalition and stand up to what is sure to be an offensive by the administration.

Skeptics say Ramos is too prone to spouting off and plays into the government's attempts to paint the opposition as entitled snobs nostalgic for the days when elites ran Venezuela.

The opposition won a crucial two-thirds legislative "super-majority" by a single seat in the Dec. 6 elections and it will need to corral every lawmaker to get through the most dramatic policies.

But policy and strategy disagreements within the opposition will make it hard to get the most high-stakes votes through, said R. Evan Ellis, a professor of Latin American studies at the United States Army War College Strategic Studies Institute.

"I suspect that the government will also use a combination of personal inducements and legal intimidation to try to coopt some of the members of the new congress," he said.

The opposition has long been split between moderates and hard-liners, and the two sides have exchanged barbs since their coalition's landslide victory over the socialists.

Even as the scale of the victory was still settling after polls closed, some opposition members began talking jubilantly about taking steps to remove Maduro and rewrite the constitution while others cautioned that the voters wanted economic reforms rather than a political fight.

Justice First leader Henrique Capriles, a governor who narrowly lost to Maduro in the last presidential election in 2013, called the opposition's legislative victory a vindication of his party's focus on building electoral support district by district. His party won 33 of the opposition's 112 seats in the new congress.

In recent weeks, Capriles has lambasted opposition leaders who have advocated street activism, particularly a wave of protests that shut down parts of Venezuela in 2014 and resulted in dozens of deaths.

Carpriles said that if the opposition had continued to pursue open confrontation in the streets, the coalition would never have won congress. The street protest movement "must be named among our greatest national failures," he told the Venezuelan weekly Tal Cual.

Supporters of Capriles' chief rival, the imprisoned hardline opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez, angrily rejected that criticism. Lopez's father, Leopoldo Lopez Gil, tweeted that he was glad Capriles is a governor and doesn't have a seat in the "new, brave congress." He also backed Ramos' leadership bid.

Lopez has been sentenced to more than a decade in prison in connection with his leadership of the 2014 protests, and he consistently polls as one of the nation's most popular leaders along with Capriles.

The government has so far showed few signs of willingness to negotiate. The outgoing congress filled the Supreme Court with newly appointed judges, and the court last week barred three opposition lawmakers from being sworn in.

Ramos on Sunday reiterated the opposition's pledge that all 112 lawmakers would take their seats despite the ruling, setting the stage for a showdown. Both the opposition and supporters of the administration are promising to convene at the National Assembly building Tuesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/combative-venezuela-opposition-leader-head-congress-234439264.html
Title: Venezuela opposition sets out to oust government
Post by: captainccs on January 06, 2016, 04:13:43 PM
They got rid of the Chavez portraits. Demagoguery is no way to run a modern country. Maduro has done a great job of discrediting Chavismo.


Venezuela opposition sets out to oust government
AFP By Maria Isabel Sanchez
27 minutes ago

Caracas (AFP) - Venezuela's opposition laid claim Wednesday to a big legislative majority that could empower it to oust President Nicolas Maduro.

The opposition has vowed to find a way to get rid of Maduro within six months.

It has taken control of the National Assembly for the first time since 1999, the year the late socialist leader Hugo Chavez came to power.

At its first regular legislative session on Wednesday, the opposition-controlled assembly swore in three anti-government lawmakers, defying Maduro who had secured a court injunction to suspend them.

The three extra deputies boost the total number of opposition seats in the legislature to a two-thirds "supermajority" that could enable them to remove Maduro by constitutional means.

The government side vowed to charge the opposition with contempt of court.

The number two in Maduro's leadership, former assembly speaker Diosdado Cabello, said the swearing-in of the suspended deputies "flagrantly violated the constitution."

- Removing Chavez's portrait -

Opposition leaders earlier had portraits of the socialist government's hero Chavez removed from the assembly building.

"I don't want to see portraits of Chavez or Maduro. Take all this stuff away to the presidential palace, or give it away," the new speaker, Henry Ramos Allup, told workmen who were removing the portraits, in a video released by his staff.

He said his side would within six months propose a way "to change the government by constitutional means."

Maduro responded: "I will be there to defend democracy with an iron hand. They will not make me give ground or waver."

But on Wednesday, he announced a reshuffle of his government.

In elections on December 6, the opposition MUD coalition won a majority in the assembly for the first time in nearly 17 years.

Under Venezuelan law, with a two-thirds majority, the opposition could from next April launch measures to try to force Maduro from office before his term ends in 2019.

But it was not clear whether they will succeed in pushing ahead at odds with the court injunction.

The government side insisted any legislation passed with the votes of the suspended deputies would be null.

Cabello said the government would "paralyze" the assembly by withholding its budget from the treasury.

"No change of government is easy. Everything will depend on the situation in the country in a few months," said Juan Manuel Rafalli, an expert in constitutional law.

"I foresee great social conflict and enormous pressure for change."

- US 'interference' -

One of the first measures the opposition wants to pass is an amnesty for some 75 political prisoners, but Maduro has vowed to veto that move.

The US State Department backed the call for political prisoners to be released, with spokesman John Kirby calling Tuesday for a "transparent" resolution of the dispute.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez rejected that as "interference," in a Twitter message.

December's election result was widely seen as a protest by voters over the state of Venezuela's economy.

It threw up the toughest challenge to the president's authority and Chavez's socialist "revolution" since Maduro took over from his late mentor in 2013.

Venezuela has the world's biggest known oil reserves but has suffered from a fall in the price of the crude on which its government relies.

It is in deep recession, with citizens suffering shortages of basic goods and soaring inflation. Now they face the uncertainty of a political conflict.

"If the government uses its institutional control in a focused way, it could get its way in the short term," said analyst Luis Vicente Leon, head of polling firm Datanalisis.

"While the Chavistas and the opposition get involved in a political debate, the people will feel a great lack of solutions to their main problems."


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-congress-defiantly-swears-barred-lawmakers-203947017.html

Title: A Bright And Hopeful Day For Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 06, 2016, 04:33:55 PM
A Bright And Hopeful Day For Venezuela


(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/byebyechavez.jpg)
Workers remove Chavez’ giant poster from National Assembly building


While I am far away, I could not help but be glued to the events in Caracas today. While it was certainly not a smooth day, it was a great day for Venezuela. A day of hope and possibilities, a bright day for the future of democracy in the country. A very important day for Venezuela’s history and the image above clearly shows that change is in the air. The statues have yet to fall, but it’s coming. The beginning is here, let’s see how long it takes to get to a good point.

I will start with the most important signs of the day:

More at:  http://devilexcrement.com/2016/01/06/a-bright-and-hopeful-day-for-venezuela/
 
Title: An Ominous Opening for Venezuela’s New Parliament
Post by: captainccs on January 07, 2016, 11:12:36 AM
The government deputies walk out, the press is allowed in. I love this part:

Quote
The opposition also opened the doors of the assembly to dozens of independent journalists, who had been barred from the legislature for years. In a scene few Venezuelans are accustomed to, one of them asked the unsuspecting First Lady (and elected legislator) Cilia Flores a question about two of her nephews, who are facing drug charges in a U.S. jail. Like other chavistas, who never take questions from independent media outlets, Flores seemed perplexed by the journalist’s gall, refusing to answer while fixing him with a malevolent glare.


An Ominous Opening for Venezuela’s New Parliament
Foreign Policy Magazine By Juan Cristóbal Nagel
23 hours ago

The building that houses Venezuela’s single-chamber legislature, the National Assembly, is a small, gold-domed capitol built in the late nineteenth century. The hall where the debates take place is just big enough to fit the 163 legislators who were sworn in on Tuesday for a five-year term. Following a landslide win last December, a large majority of them belong to the opposition.

But 45 minutes after taking their oaths, the pro-government minority decided the quarters were too cramped, and promptly left the building. (Oddly, lawmakers from the ruling party hadn’t found anything objectionable about the chamber while they were still in the majority.)

The excuse was an alleged breach in the rules governing the debate, but it was the overall atmosphere that forced them to go for fresh air. For the first time in the 17 years since the late Hugo Chávez swept into power, the opposition has firm control of one of the branches of government. This proved too much for the chavista legislators to handle, and their walkout foreshadows the tensions ahead.

The ceremony itself was part pageantry, part Venezuelan soap opera. The building was surrounded by three rings of military personnel who briefly blocked opposition legislators’ access to their new workplace. Several Metro stations around the capitol were closed to the public. Chavista paramilitary gangs had threatened to block access to the building in order to “protect the Revolution.”

Once inside, the new majority quickly began enacting symbolic changes. One of the first was to take down giant pictures of Chávez and of President Nicolás Maduro that had presided over the main debate hall since the former’s death and the latter’s subsequent election.

The opposition also opened the doors of the assembly to dozens of independent journalists, who had been barred from the legislature for years. In a scene few Venezuelans are accustomed to, one of them asked the unsuspecting First Lady (and elected legislator) Cilia Flores a question about two of her nephews, who are facing drug charges in a U.S. jail. Like other chavistas, who never take questions from independent media outlets, Flores seemed perplexed by the journalist’s gall, refusing to answer while fixing him with a malevolent glare.

The incoming president of the assembly, Henry Ramos Allup, was respectful of his colleagues in the minority, giving each side their turn. This was a striking departure from previous practice. In the previous chavista-dominated legislature, some opposition legislators were physically assaulted, others arbitrarily deprived of their parliamentary immunity. On several occasions, parliamentary leaders stripped opposition members of their speaking rights.

Ramos, a bookish 73-year-old and one of the few Venezuelan politicians with roots in the pre-Chavez political era, struck a conciliatory tone. He urged lawmakers to bring the country together and find solutions to pressing economic problems. But he also vowed to push the government to implement urgent reforms.

The government is in no mood for dialogue. In the last few weeks, it has stacked Venezuela’s top court with party loyalists. These new judges promptly moved to trim the opposition’s two-thirds majority by blocking the swearing-in of three legislators pending the resolution of an election dispute in the Southern state of Amazonas. (The deputies in question did not attend yesterday, and it is unclear what consequences this will have on the opposition’s ability to exercise its supermajority) The court’s ruling was based on shaky evidence, as demonstrated by the fact that even the chavista-controlled election commission certified the two-thirds majority. However this particular conflict is resolved, efforts by government-friendly judges to undermine its opponents will continue.

Moreover, on Monday, the government stripped the incoming National Assembly of any oversight over the Central Bank, taking away its power to nominate candidates to the bank’s board and to force directors to reveal economic or financial information. Crucially, the government also gave the Central Bank freedom to finance the executive branch, thus allowing Maduro to bypass the legislature to fund his massive budget deficit.

Despite all this, the opposition is determined to press ahead. It has pledged to pass an amnesty law that will free political prisoners. It has also vowed to cut Maduro’s term short via some sort of referendum in case the government does not cooperate. The chavista courts will likely have something to say about all of this.

A clash between the two forces seems inevitable. The legislature can pass all the laws it wants, but the institutions who implement them – the courts and the executive branch – are all firmly in chavista hands.

This means that Venezuela is in the throes of a full-blown constitutional crisis. Nobody can predict how it will play out, but if history is any guide, the military will play an important role in the outcome.

In the meantime, the country’s economy is in freefall. As the two sides bicker, Venezuela suffers from the world’s deepest recession and its highest inflation rate. The price of oil, the country’s top export, is tanking. And the Maduro administration has no idea what to do.

Watching Venezuela is seldom boring, and the swearing-in of the new National Assembly proved it. But the entertaining theater makes it easy to forget that this is a country of 30 million people living through an economic maelstrom, a president with no answers, and now, a divided government. The showdown in the National Assembly suggests the Venezuelan tragedy has a few more acts before it finds its resolution.

In the photo, opposition legislators argue with pro-government legislators during the new Venezuelan parliament’s swearing-in ceremony in Caracas on January 5, 2016.

http://news.yahoo.com/ominous-opening-venezuela-parliament-185655165.html
 
Title: Young socialist hardliner will lead Venezuela's economy TO UTTER RUIN
Post by: captainccs on January 07, 2016, 11:27:43 AM
I can live with a pragmatic socialist but clueless ideologues are dangerous.


Young socialist hardliner will lead Venezuela's economy
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
1 hour ago
 
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Nicolas Maduro is doubling down on his existing economic policies with the appointment of a young leftist hardliner to head the country's cratering economy, setting up a potential confrontation between the ruling socialist party and the newly powerful opposition.

Luis Salas, the new 39-year-old vice president for the economy, has scant administrative experience, but champions the same theories of price and currency controls that have defined Venezuela's leftist economic policy for 17 years.

Like Maduro, Salas says the country is suffering from the world's worst recession and triple-digit inflation because business interests are colluding with the U.S. to sabotage the economy.

He even goes further than Maduro in arguing that many of the country's problems are the result of being too capitalist.

A professor at the Bolivarian University, an institution created by the late president Hugo Chavez, Salas was relatively unknown before this week. But he has outlined his economic philosophy in a large collection of open letters and pamphlets.

"Inflation doesn't exist in real life," he wrote last year.

He added that prices go up not because of scarcity, but because of "capitalist economies that are driven by the desire for personal gain through the exploitation of others; by selfishness."

Along with shortages, inflation has become the No. 1 concern among Venezuelan voters, many of whom spend hours each week waiting in line for goods that are increasingly impossible to afford.

After the opposition swept Dec. 6 legislative elections, Salas wrote an open letter in which he attacked as "pragmatists" those people within the socialist camp who were floating the possibility of devaluation, a move that outside economists agree is a necessary first step for righting the economy.

Disbelief at the president's choice for a new economic czar echoed in opposition circles Wednesday night, with some speculating Maduro might be trying to drive the economy into the ground.

Since its landmark victory, the opposition coalition has been split between those who favor negotiation with the government and those who want to start to remove Maduro from office. The new appointment and the socialists' combative rhetoric since the new congress was seated Tuesday could silence opposition voices favoring dialogue.

Socialist supporters have supported appointment of the new economic czar. Some pro-government people rallied in downtown Thursday morning to protest the opposition leadership's removal of portraits of Chavez from the gold-domed capitol building.

Maduro named other hardliners to top spots Wednesday as part of a larger cabinet reshuffle he says is intended to protect the revolution during a new political era.

He also created a new urban agriculture ministry and announced that he and first lady Cilia Flores had taken up urban farming themselves.

"Cilia and I keep 50 chickens at our home. It's time to start building a new culture of production," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/young-socialist-hardliner-lead-venezuelas-economy-150648513.html
 
Title: Re: Young socialist hardliner will lead Venezuela's economy TO UTTER RUIN
Post by: G M on January 07, 2016, 12:23:21 PM
No such thing as a pragmatic socialist.
 
I can live with a pragmatic socialist but clueless ideologues are dangerous.


Young socialist hardliner will lead Venezuela's economy
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
1 hour ago
 
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — President Nicolas Maduro is doubling down on his existing economic policies with the appointment of a young leftist hardliner to head the country's cratering economy, setting up a potential confrontation between the ruling socialist party and the newly powerful opposition.

Luis Salas, the new 39-year-old vice president for the economy, has scant administrative experience, but champions the same theories of price and currency controls that have defined Venezuela's leftist economic policy for 17 years.

Like Maduro, Salas says the country is suffering from the world's worst recession and triple-digit inflation because business interests are colluding with the U.S. to sabotage the economy.

He even goes further than Maduro in arguing that many of the country's problems are the result of being too capitalist.

A professor at the Bolivarian University, an institution created by the late president Hugo Chavez, Salas was relatively unknown before this week. But he has outlined his economic philosophy in a large collection of open letters and pamphlets.

"Inflation doesn't exist in real life," he wrote last year.

He added that prices go up not because of scarcity, but because of "capitalist economies that are driven by the desire for personal gain through the exploitation of others; by selfishness."

Along with shortages, inflation has become the No. 1 concern among Venezuelan voters, many of whom spend hours each week waiting in line for goods that are increasingly impossible to afford.

After the opposition swept Dec. 6 legislative elections, Salas wrote an open letter in which he attacked as "pragmatists" those people within the socialist camp who were floating the possibility of devaluation, a move that outside economists agree is a necessary first step for righting the economy.

Disbelief at the president's choice for a new economic czar echoed in opposition circles Wednesday night, with some speculating Maduro might be trying to drive the economy into the ground.

Since its landmark victory, the opposition coalition has been split between those who favor negotiation with the government and those who want to start to remove Maduro from office. The new appointment and the socialists' combative rhetoric since the new congress was seated Tuesday could silence opposition voices favoring dialogue.

Socialist supporters have supported appointment of the new economic czar. Some pro-government people rallied in downtown Thursday morning to protest the opposition leadership's removal of portraits of Chavez from the gold-domed capitol building.

Maduro named other hardliners to top spots Wednesday as part of a larger cabinet reshuffle he says is intended to protect the revolution during a new political era.

He also created a new urban agriculture ministry and announced that he and first lady Cilia Flores had taken up urban farming themselves.

"Cilia and I keep 50 chickens at our home. It's time to start building a new culture of production," he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/young-socialist-hardliner-lead-venezuelas-economy-150648513.html
 

Title: Venezuela President Gets Rare Live TV Criticism
Post by: captainccs on January 16, 2016, 11:31:56 AM
The truth shall set you free!

The government has lost control over the press. Independent reporters are now allowed into the National Assembly (parliament) and can report what happens. The two thirds landslide victory shows that people have had enough of the revolution and now they can get the juicy details as well. The end of Chavismo is now only a question of time.


Venezuela President Gets Rare Live TV Criticism
By HANNAH DREIER, ASSOCIATED PRESS
CARACAS, Venezuela — Jan 15, 2016, 10:44 PM ET

In a stunning display of Venezuela's tense new political order, President Nicolas Maduro suffered through a long scolding from the head of the country's new opposition Congress Friday after presenting his state of the nation address.

Congress leader Henry Ramos wagged his finger inches from the embattled president's head in a rebuttal that was broadcast live across the South American country — unprecedented media access for an opponent of the country's socialist revolution.

It had already been a night of firsts. Neither Maduro nor his predecessor the late President Hugo Chavez ever had to contend with a hostile audience for their state of the nation speeches. Critics of the administration took control of the institution last week for the first time in 17 years.

Maduro himself had mostly bad news to share.

Hours earlier, the Central Bank released key economic data for the first time in more than a year, showing an economy in shambles and for the first time acknowledging what analysts have long said: That annualized inflation has surged into triple digits.

Maduro described the numbers as "catastrophic" and devoted most of his three-hour speech to what he called a "monstrous attack" on the economy by business owners and other foes of the leftist government.

In his rebuttal, Ramos took a professorial tone as he laid out the opposition's view that Maduro himself is responsible for the crisis.

"If you don't want to hear this, close your ears or leave," he warned as Maduro sipped from a coffee cup and checked his watch in the next chair.

"If you give in to the desire to have more and more bolivars with the same number of dollars, your bolivars are going to lose value," Ramos said, referring to the country's plummeting currency.

The sight of an opposition leader lecturing the president on a live television feed all networks were required to carry shocked even ardent supporters of the sharp-tonged new congressional leader. Maduro rarely exposes himself to questions from independent reporters, much less questioning from political opponents. And few broadcast networks carry opposition events.

Maduro had taken an unusually conciliatory tone in his address, calling for dialogue even as he warned the opposition that it could easily get overconfident and lose the next election. He also vowed to block one of its key initial projects: Giving people who live in government housing the title to their homes.

"No, no and no, we will not permit it," Maduro said during one of the most dramatic moments of his speech. "You'll have to get rid of me first."

The opposition has pledged to do just that, issuing a six-month deadline to hold a recall election.

Maduro mentioned in passing that his newly appointed Vice President Aristobulo Isturiz had spoken this week with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden and a high-ranking U.S. diplomat.

Ahead of his speech, Maduro declared an economic emergency giving him 60 days to unilaterally enact sweeping reforms. He later hand-delivered the decree to the head of Congress to be debated next week, but it's not clear that the government will wait for approval to enforce it.

Venezuela, which has the world's largest oil reserves, has suffered enormously as the price of oil has crashed from above $90 a barrel two years ago to just $24 today. Analysts say that means Venezuela is dangerously close to just breaking even on the oil it produces, which accounts for 95 percent of export earnings.

The country's economy contracted by 7.1 percent during the quarter that ended in September 2015, and inflation reached 141.5 percent, according to the new Central Bank data.

Maduro echoed many Venezuelans' fears Friday when he said he hoped the coming year would see peace, "not senseless violence that could lead anywhere."

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/venezuelas-president-declares-economic-emergency-36315983

Title: IMF: Venezuelan inflation to reach 720%
Post by: captainccs on January 24, 2016, 09:52:42 AM
Quote
The debate took place against the backdrop of more grim economic news as the International Monetary Fund predicted that inflation in Venezuela would more than double in 2016, reaching 720 percent.

Venezuela congress nixes Maduro request for emergency powers
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
January 22, 2016 5:58 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's opposition-led congress on Friday rejected President Nicolas Maduro's request for emergency powers amid a plunging national economy, the depths of which were dramatized by an IMF estimate that inflation this year will top 700 percent.

Ruling party and opposition lawmakers accused each other of trying to run the country into the ground in the first major congressional debate Venezuela has seen in more than a decade. Critics of the socialist revolution kicked off by late President Hugo Chavez took control of congress last month for the first time in 17 years.

Maduro had proposed an economic emergency decree that would give him expanded authority for 60 days. In the past, when it was dominated by first Chavez's and then Maduro's allies, congress made a habit of approving these kinds of exceptional powers.

The opposition argues that Maduro is responsible for raging inflation and chronic shortages dogging daily life here, and is promising to oust him within six months.

The debate took place against the backdrop of more grim economic news as the International Monetary Fund predicted that inflation in Venezuela would more than double in 2016, reaching 720 percent.

The South American nation already suffers from the world's highest inflation and a crushing recession. The IMF estimates that prices rose 275 percent last year in Venezuela, while the economy contracted by 10 percent.

Ahead of the final vote on his decree, Maduro announced he had approved a change that will allow the country's small export sector to use a more favorable currency exchange rate. He scolded opposition activists for "turning their back on the country."

"They're bent on the politics of sterile confrontation," he said as state television began promoting the slogan "irresponsible opposition."

Opposition leaders rejected the decree as a trap intended to make them look intransigent and unwilling to fix the economy.

"We're not closing any doors. On the contrary, today we opened the door to a serious discussion," majority leader Julio Borges said. "We're not looking to double down on the same policies that got us into this crisis. What we need is real change."

http://news.yahoo.com/imf-venezuela-inflation-surpass-700-percent-142019388--finance.html
Title: Re: IMF: Venezuelan inflation to reach 720%
Post by: G M on January 24, 2016, 10:01:23 AM
Good thing that could never happen here.

Quote
The debate took place against the backdrop of more grim economic news as the International Monetary Fund predicted that inflation in Venezuela would more than double in 2016, reaching 720 percent.

Venezuela congress nixes Maduro request for emergency powers
Associated Press By HANNAH DREIER
January 22, 2016 5:58 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's opposition-led congress on Friday rejected President Nicolas Maduro's request for emergency powers amid a plunging national economy, the depths of which were dramatized by an IMF estimate that inflation this year will top 700 percent.

Ruling party and opposition lawmakers accused each other of trying to run the country into the ground in the first major congressional debate Venezuela has seen in more than a decade. Critics of the socialist revolution kicked off by late President Hugo Chavez took control of congress last month for the first time in 17 years.

Maduro had proposed an economic emergency decree that would give him expanded authority for 60 days. In the past, when it was dominated by first Chavez's and then Maduro's allies, congress made a habit of approving these kinds of exceptional powers.

The opposition argues that Maduro is responsible for raging inflation and chronic shortages dogging daily life here, and is promising to oust him within six months.

The debate took place against the backdrop of more grim economic news as the International Monetary Fund predicted that inflation in Venezuela would more than double in 2016, reaching 720 percent.

The South American nation already suffers from the world's highest inflation and a crushing recession. The IMF estimates that prices rose 275 percent last year in Venezuela, while the economy contracted by 10 percent.

Ahead of the final vote on his decree, Maduro announced he had approved a change that will allow the country's small export sector to use a more favorable currency exchange rate. He scolded opposition activists for "turning their back on the country."

"They're bent on the politics of sterile confrontation," he said as state television began promoting the slogan "irresponsible opposition."

Opposition leaders rejected the decree as a trap intended to make them look intransigent and unwilling to fix the economy.

"We're not closing any doors. On the contrary, today we opened the door to a serious discussion," majority leader Julio Borges said. "We're not looking to double down on the same policies that got us into this crisis. What we need is real change."

http://news.yahoo.com/imf-venezuela-inflation-surpass-700-percent-142019388--finance.html

Title: Venezuela lawmakers to reject economic crisis plan
Post by: captainccs on January 24, 2016, 10:09:34 AM
Why is the government team afraid of the media all of a sudden?
Quote
Maduro's economic team pulled out at the last minute saying they would only participate if it was closed to the media, Ramos said.


Venezuela lawmakers to reject economic crisis plan
AFP By Ernesto Tovar
January 22, 2016 2:16 PM

Caracas (AFP) - Venezuelan opposition lawmakers vowed to reject on Friday President Nicolas Maduro's bid to decree a state of economic emergency, deepening a political crisis in the oil-rich nation.

Friday is the deadline for the opposition-controlled National Assembly to vote on Maduro's decree, which would give him special powers to intervene in the economic crisis.

A refusal to pass it will prolong a tense political standoff in the volatile South American state, where citizens are suffering shortages of food and goods.

The opposition speaker of the congress, Henry Ramos Allup, accused Maduro's government of failing to adequately inform lawmakers of the details of the decree so they could debate the plan.

"It would be totally irresponsible for the National Assembly to blindly approve a decree of such magnitude, scope and implications, without having any information because the government itself refused to provide it," he said on television.

He said earlier that lawmakers suspended a session of the assembly in which the government was due to defend the decree because the ministers did not show up.

Maduro's economic team pulled out at the last minute saying they would only participate if it was closed to the media, Ramos said.

Senior pro-government officials accused the center-right opposition, which this month took control of the assembly for the first time in 17 years, of trying to turn the session into a "media show."

View galleryThe chairs for the ministers summoned to a parliamentary&nbsp;&hellip;
The chairs for the ministers summoned to a parliamentary session to explain the emergency decree rem …
The decree, issued a week ago, would give Maduro 60 days of extraordinary powers to combat a deep recession and triple-digit inflation.

It allows for the administration to commandeer private companies' resources, impose currency controls and take "other social, economic or political measures deemed fitting."

The opposition as well as some businesses and unions have warned it is a threat to free enterprise and jobs.

- Tense political standoff -

Announcing the decree last week, Maduro admitted Venezuela was in a "catastrophic" economic crisis.

He called on the assembly to approve the decree and "help me navigate this crisis."

But he vowed to resist any shift towards what he called "neoliberal" policies.

View galleryVenezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (L) speaks with&nbsp;&hellip;
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (L) speaks with the president of the opposition controlled Natio …
"You will have to come and overthrow me if you want to pass a privatization law. No, no and no!"

The same day Venezuela's central bank released its first economic growth and inflation statistics in more than a year.

The figures showed the economy shrank 4.5 percent in the first nine months of 2015.

Annualized inflation in September hit a painful 141.5 percent, fueled by crippling shortages.

Maduro said his emergency plan would allow the government to shore up its health, housing, education and food services.

He vowed to overhaul the country's system of production to shift it away from the oil revenue on which his social spending programs have relied.

Venezuela has the world's biggest known crude oil reserves but the price of oil has plunged over the past year and a half, slashing its revenues.

The opposition has branded the socialist policies of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez a failure.

It wants to scrap government's price and currency controls.

The head of the congressional commission examining the decree, lawmaker Jose Guerra, said the opposition would make its own economic proposals to the government.

"Our interest is in resolving the crisis, but it is not going to be resolved through the government's policies," he said Friday on television channel Globovision.

The commission opened a session about 1530 GMT on Friday to discuss the decree. The full assembly was due to convene later.

Analysts say the political deadlock threatens to worsen the hardship that drove voters to hand the opposition a landslide election victory last month.

They have warned of the risk of a repeat of violent street clashes that left 43 people dead in 2014.


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-lawmakers-reject-economic-crisis-plan-191645530.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on January 24, 2016, 06:28:23 PM
Perhaps it is non of my business but why do you live in Venezuela?    :?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 24, 2016, 07:45:19 PM
Perhaps it is non of my business but why do you live in Venezuela?    :?

It's my country and a lovely place it is!


What are sailors saying about Venezuela? I stopped collecting these stories in 2008 because Chavismo had practically destroyed the cruising industry long with everything else. It seems we are getting our country back.

http://bahiaredonda.com/ip/cruising-logs-2008.php
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on January 25, 2016, 06:26:21 AM
Thanks for response.  I am glad you like it.  I was just wondering if it is safe there and one hears about the turmoil because of the drop in oil as in other OPEC countries that cannot afford low prices as can the Arab countries.
 

Went to Marguerite Island once and a day trip to Angel Falls but wrong time of year and falls were only a trickle.  I never saw such large ants as in the Amazon we walked through! 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 25, 2016, 07:11:37 AM
Is Paris safe? Are American schools safe? The excessive worry about safety is paralyzing. Americans have lost their freedom to government security agencies like the ones guarding airports. There was a time when no one could ask you for an ID in America. No longer. Now you are not you but whatever a piece of plastic says you are. Humans have domesticated themselves. What a pity.

A long time ago my mom was knocked down by a purse snatcher in Caracas. She was mad as hell and she decided she no longer wanted to live in such a savage country. Maybe Canada. A week later she got a letter from her niece in Montreal with the news that she had been robbed!

The world is so safe and bland that now people jump out of airplanes without a parachute to get some excitement back in their lives.

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=people+jump+out+of+airplanes+without+a+parachute&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=MzqmVrenLYWf-AXXo4GYDg
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2016, 09:29:38 AM
Amen.
Title: WaPo: Venezuela on brink of collapse
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 31, 2016, 07:30:57 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/29/venezuela-is-on-the-brink-of-a-complete-collapse/
Title: From Energy and Capital
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2016, 01:52:29 PM
OPEC Stands on the Brink
By Keith Kohl | Friday, February 5, 2016

Although the media headlines today are dominated by Russia, Saudi Arabia, speculation on China's slowing demand growth, and the tight oil drillers in the lower-48 states, it really was only a matter of time before other OPEC members reached a breaking point.

And that's precisely where Venezuela finds itself today.

What you might not know is that Venezuela actually has a very long history of oil exports.

Not many people know that the first barrel of Venezuela oil was shipped abroad about 320 years before Col. Drake's famous well struck black gold along the banks of Oil Creek, Pennsylvania.

It's true.

Just after the Spaniards conquered the area, there were rumors that oil could be used to cure gout, which led to a barrel of crude being shipped overseas to Emperor Charles V (it's a shame it didn't help with malaria).

But historical tangents aside, you have to ask yourself just how desperate Venezuela is over the potential collapse of its oil industry.

A State on the Brink

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not a huge fan of Venezuela.

Any time you need to physically hit your president in the head with a piece of fruit to get his attention, that might be your first clue that something is wrong.

I guess he has other things on his mind, especially considering that his oil industry is on the brink of collapse.

But just how desperate is the Venezuelan oil industry? Let's just say that it's been pushed far enough to go over Saudi Arabia's head. Just this week, the country sent its new oil minister on a mission to visit both OPEC and non-OPEC producers and plead with them to cut production.

His travels included stops in Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, and Russia.

Now, we've always known that Venezuela has been one of OPEC's biggest price hawks — yet it's for good reason.

While the country reports a staggeringly massive amount of oil reserves — 299 billion barrels at last count — don't let it fool you.

To say Venezuela's supply is of poor quality would be a gross understatement. We're talking about some of the dirtiest, heaviest, most expensive oil to extract in the world.

Nearly 80% of those proven reserves, or 235 billion barrels, are found in the Orinoco Belt.

Few countries have a higher break-even price than Venezuela. The IMF reported last October that Venezuela's fiscal break-even price was $117.50 per barrel.

Personally, I don't know any oil bulls that believe crude prices will surge that much.

It gets worse for them, too. Things are so bad now that Venezuela is forced to import light crude oil from the United States in order to help refine its heavy oil.

Pleading its case to the world's largest producers, however, may not work out the way it's hoping, considering Venezuela's biggest enemy is Saudi Arabia itself.

Don't believe me? Just read on...



OPEC's Internal War

So you really want to know how bad things have gotten for Venezuela?

When the House of Saud declared war on oil prices more than 18 months ago, it wasn't just on the tight oil companies in the United States.

It was also on fellow OPEC members like Venezuela.

Remember, oil ministers from Saudi Arabia have consistently argued that their main priority is to preserve the nation's market share — no matter who's in their way.

Over the last decades, Venezuela's oil exports to the United States have fallen by more than 46%. Of course, you should also bear in mind that almost 90% of this oil was shipped to refineries along the Gulf Coast.

And let's be clear here: the Gulf Coast is a crucial region for Venezuela's oil due to the fact that it's where most of the United States' heavy crude processing capacity is located.

The problem is that Venezuela is quickly losing ground to its OPEC brethren.

More than half of the oil that is shipped to the Gulf Coast comes from an OPEC member, and three-quarters of those OPEC exports consist of crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

In fact, six out of every 10 barrels that the Saudis export to the United States end up going to the Gulf Coast.

Now, considering that tight oil plays have almost single-handedly pushed U.S. oil output to over 9 million barrels per day over the last nine years, it's clear that the Gulf Coast has become a fierce battleground for foreign exporters.

And if the situation is grim enough for Venezuela to send its oil minister around the world begging for a meager 5% output cut across the board, you can imagine how close its oil industry is standing to the brink.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl Signature

Keith Kohl
Title: Venezuela imposes gasoline hike, currency devaluation
Post by: captainccs on February 17, 2016, 05:21:06 PM
This I got to see to believe. CAP was kicked out of office when he raised the price of gas. At $0.95 a liter at the new official rate of BsF 10 per dollar, filling the tank will cost between BsF 400 and a BsF 1000 compared to today's 4 to 10 range. Although it's certainly the right economic move I doubt it will help raise Maduro's popularity.

For comparison, a kilo of potatoes (2.2 pounds) costs BsF 500.



Venezuela imposes gasoline hike, currency devaluation
AFP
34 minutes ago

Caracas (AFP) - Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro said Wednesday he would raise the price of gasoline and devalue the bolivar currency, as he faced growing pressure to ease an economic crisis.

The socialist leader said he would raise the pump price of premium gasoline from its current super-low level of $0.01 per liter to the equivalent of $0.95 at the fixed official exchange rate.

The move risks sparking protests in a country where citizens are struggling with soaring inflation and shortages of basic foods and goods.

"This is a necessary action, for which I take responsibility," Maduro said in a televised address.

Venezuela has the biggest known oil reserves in the world, but has suffered from the plunge in world oil prices over the past year and a half.

With the previous subsidies, a Venezuelan could fill a car with gasoline for the equivalent of less than a dollar at the state-fixed exchange rate.

A similar gasoline price hike in 1989 sparked deadly riots in the volatile nation.

Maduro also said the government would "simplify" the country's complex exchange rate regime from Thursday.

The current three-tier system of exchange rates will be slimmed down.

From Thursday there will be just two rates: a protected official rate for food and medicine imports and a parallel "floating" rate for other transactions.

Under the rate for food and medicine, the bolivar will weaken by 37 percent from 6.3 to 10 bolivars to the dollar.

Analysts will be watching closely to see what levels the bolivar reaches against the dollar at the floating rate.

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-announces-first-gasoline-hike-20-years-224043881.html

Title: Venezuela replaces hardline economic czar after 1 month
Post by: captainccs on February 17, 2016, 05:55:20 PM
Salas, a teacher with no practical experience, is a voodoo economist. Right after the election Maduro doubled down but since someone has told him to mend his ways. I wonder who the power behind the throne is, Cuba? China?


Venezuela replaces hardline economic czar after 1 month
Associated Press
February 16, 2016 10:28 AM

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's President Maduro has replaced his economic czar just five weeks after appointing the hardline leftist as the country grapples with increasingly bleak economic indicators and fears of default.

Maduro said Monday Luis Salas is leaving his post as vice president for the economy for family reasons.

He will be replaced with a more business-friendly figure, Miguel Perez, who had been serving as commerce minister. Perez previously led a business chamber and has said that Venezuela must simplify its byzantine exchange rate system.

Salas had sparked concern among the opposition by blaming the Venezuela's mounting economic problems on sabotage. Salas said the country was suffering from the world's worst recession and triple-digit inflation because business interests are colluding with the U.S. to sabotage the economy.

Critics of the socialist administration blame inflation on government spending without sufficient revenues, flooding the economy with currency.

Shortages and inflation have become top concerns among Venezuelan voters, many of whom spend hours each week waiting in line for goods that are increasingly impossible to afford.

Local media had reported in recent days that Salas favored suspending Venezuela's payments to foreign creditors.

Maduro, who recently secured decree powers to make economic policy, said he would deliver further news in the coming days. Rumors have been swirling for weeks that the government is about to make a major announcement like raising gasoline prices or formally devaluing the currency.

http://news.yahoo.com/venezuela-replaces-hardline-economic-czar-141147762.html
Title: Maduro’s Miniscule Adjustment
Post by: captainccs on February 17, 2016, 06:27:18 PM
Criticism is never far behind...


Maduro’s Miniscule Adjustment
February 17, 2016

Almost two years and ten months to the date of his election in 2013 and two months and 11 days after leading his party to an embarrassing defeat, Nicolas Maduro announced the first real economic measures of his almost three year old administration.

But the measures turned out to be miniscule…

In fact, what the Venezuelan President announced today was likely insufficient in April of 2013, when he was sworn in, when the parallel rate of exchange stood at Bs. 25 per US$, but may have had a bigger impact on the distortions in 2013 than it will have now. Chavismo continues to be trapped in its own distortion field, fearing adjusting the economy, but at the same time implementing a very meek adjustment which will likely be received badly by the population. If Maduro was going to take the blame for an adjustment, he should (and could!) have gone further than he did and the population would have not been able to measure the difference in impact on inflation and problems than this softer adjustment will have.

It took the Venezuelan President four hours of rambling to get to the real measures he proposed. He talked about the Economic War, created Productive (!!) Councils for each State in Venezuela and talked about a “new” Venezuela, as if Chavismo had recently been elected.

Some of the announcements had leaked, as Venezuela’s and PDVSA’s bonds, which had been strong in the morning, soared right before the speech, gaining as much as 12% in price for the day before the market closed, but before the detailed announcements had been made. Maybe it will be a matter of “buy on the leak, sell on the news”, now that the details have been revealed.

The first important announcement by Maduro was the first increase in the price of gasoline since Chávez was first elected in 1998. In fact, then candidate Chávez asked President Caldera to hold off on scheduled increases until after the election. Thus, the price of gasoline in Venezuela has stayed constant for over 17 years. While the rate of exchange has gone from Bs. 0.57 per US$ to Bs. 1,045 per US$, the price of gasoline had been kept constant at Bs. 0.097 per liter (US$ 0.000097 per liter or US$ 0.0004268 per gallon). So you get it, in this post in 2014, I filled my car in Caracas in 2014 with about 10 gallons of gas and paid the equivalent today of barely 4.2 cents in US$ for the ten gallons to fill up.

So, today Maduro increased the price of 95 octane gasoline from Bs. 0.097 per liter to Bs. 6 per liter, a 6,000-plus percent increase, but in the end:

Venezuela went today from having the cheapest gasoline in the world, to having the cheapest gasoline in the world.

How cheap? Well, if you consider a standard 14 gallon gas tank, at Bs. 6 per liter, you will be paying to fill up the tank a total of US$ 0.37 or all of 37 cents in US$. That is how cheap it will continue to be.

Obviously, this is a positive, but whatever positive there was in the announcement, was erased rather quickly with the announcement that the difference between the old and the new price will be placed in a “new” fund to support social programs. Thus, PDVSA will not benefit from the increase, the money will go into a non-transparent fund run by Maduro and the increase will likely be used in new expenditures, doing little to close the fiscal deficit.

And to top it all off, the 91 octane gasoline, was only increased to Bs. 1 per liter (one tenth of a cent). This gas has lead in it and currently 70% of the gasoline consumed in Venezuela is the higher  no-lead grade, since it is basically free. Thus, I see two problems: One, people may start using the cheaper grade to save pennies, but damaging their car and creating more pollution. Two, the difference in cost of manufacturing the two gasoline types is small, so it makes little sense to have such a difference, if what you want is to get back some of the cost of producing it.

In the end, Maduro could have gone higher in both prices and made the two prices closer and the “people” would not have minded or would have blamed him for inflation as much as they will anyway. He would have also reduced the incentives for smuggling gas to Colombia, which remain quite high. (A liter of gas in Colombia runs around 1 US$, versus 0.6 US$ cents in Venezuela)

Next, Maduro announced that he will “simplify” the current foreign exchange system. He said there will be only two rates (There will be three, he ignored the parallel rate), eliminating one of the three “official” rates currently in effect. Thus, Maduro announced the devaluation of the Bs. 6.3 per US$ rate to Bs. 10 per US$ rate for essentials (food and medicine), while moving everything else to a floating (floating not free) which he said would start at the current Simadi rate (Bs. 202.9 per US$ today). In the end, all this does, is move the absurd travel allowance rate from Bs. 12 to Bs. 202.9 per US$, where it will continue to be a perverse subsidy for the rich that can travel.

This is probably the worst of the announcements made. With the parallel rate of exchange at Bs. 1,045 per US$ today, it simply reduces the profit of the arbitrageurs from Bs. 1,038 per US$ to Bs. 1,035 per US$, maintaining and sustaining the reasons for the huge  corruption surrounding the foreign exchange office CENCOEX and the contraband of goods to Colombia and to a lesser extent Brazil and the Caribbean. This racket is dominated by the Venezuelan military.

Finally, Maduro announced a minimum salary increase of 20% from Bs. 11,557 to Bs. 13,720. (Divide by 1000 and you will gulp!) What can I say, people really need it, but in an environment of extremely high inflation and with no measures to really stop the process, in two months, another increase will be needed. And another one…

And the people will still be even further behind that they are today.

I could talk about the other non-announcements Maduro made, but by now, you have been as patient with me, as I was with Maduro today.

And that would be the antonym of miniscule. Which is that you have been enormously patient to get here! Thanks!

(Maduro also made a very vague announcement of a debit card for poor families, which sounded like Manuel Rosales’ Mi Negra card in the 2006 Presidential election, but he gave very few specifics of how much it will involve in Bolivars and who would be eligible and why)

http://devilexcrement.com/2016/02/17/maduros-miniscule-adjustment

Title: Are Venezuelans at the Breaking Point?
Post by: captainccs on February 19, 2016, 08:00:47 PM
Queues, queues, queues, people stand in line for hours not to go to a show or buy an iPhone but to buy basic necessities that are in short supply. To make matters worse, the government has implemented various types of rationing which forces people to go shopping more often.

Two things the article does not mention: 1) scalpers, "bachaqueros." The bachaco is a large ant that can be seen carrying leaves and twigs bigger than they are to their nest. These scalpers become street vendors with customers who don't wish to waste their life in queues. They charge a very large markup because they are buying at ridiculously low controlled prices. 2) While there certainly are shortages, more every day, people willing and able to pay full price don't have to queue up. The queues are for controlled price items.

But clearly the people have spoken giving the opposition a 2/3 super-majority in the National Assembly. Belatedly the government is realizing that the situation is ready to blow up, not that they can do much about it having destroyed industry, having wasted and stollen fortunes, having ignored maintenance, and with oil at record low prices.


Are Venezuelans at the Breaking Point?
Foreign Policy Magazine By Daniel Lansberg-Rodríguez and Francisco Marquez Lara
February 18, 2016 5:14 PM

There was a time when the word “Venezuela” conjured up oil wealth, beauty queens, and baseball players. Today all those things are overshadowed by flag-themed tracksuits, histrionically ranting leaders, and, above all else, lines, lines, lines. The dramatic collapse of the economy, thanks to chronic mismanagement and plunging oil prices, has made queues — las colas, as they are locally known — the most visible symptom of the country’s failed revolution. And they’ve gotten far worse under President Nicolás Maduro.

Since coming under government control in 2014, Ultimas Noticias, one of Venezuela’s highest circulating national newspapers, has become a wellspring of rosy observations. Last week, it published an article that succinctly sums up the tragic surrealism of everyday life in what was once South America’s wealthiest country. Noting that waiting in long lines has become an unavoidable part of everyday life (“whatever the reason”), and duly asserting that “life wasn’t made solely to satisfy our tastes, wants and preferences,” the author offered a series of helpful tips to make the best of queue-standing:

“Try to stay cheerful, friendly, and make fun conversation with those next to you in line as well as behind and ahead; read; make sure to bring an umbrella and a snack; do breathing exercises; meditate and focus creative energy on the general good…”

And if those suggestions weren’t uplifting enough, the author added a bit of advice on how to improve one’s relationship with the supernatural: “For those who are religious or philosophical, it’s a marvelous moment to take stock and gauge the advancement of your spirituality.”

Venezuela’s vigorous manufacture of such banalities is, of course, nothing new. A few years back, a well known pro-government blog argued that waiting in line is actually beneficial, because it makes people value their goods and protects them against impulsive purchases. That the tone has since changed from extolling hidden opportunity to counseling weary patience is telling: the public’s rising frustration has become impossible for the government to shrug off.

That hasn’t kept it from trying, and high-ranking regime officials increasingly struggle to manage the citizens’ exasperations. Urban Agriculture Minister Lorena Freitez recently offered a reminder that “[before socialism] we had full supermarkets but empty refrigerators” — the implication being that current shortages must be a kind of progress, if everyone has an equally limited access to food. For any Venezuelans unmoved by such interpretations, Congresswoman Jacquelin Farías from the ruling United Socialist Party responds with a call to stoicism. “Just leave your house with your little bag, and you go buy what you need, then go home,” she declared recently. “That’s revolution, and it’s what our president has asked of us, so let’s just enjoy these exquisite lines.”

Readers may be forgiven for finding hints of Kafka in such statements, but for those who actually have to stand in the lines, the situation is more reminiscent of Dante. And it’s not just the lines — the most basic services that underpin any modern society have fundamentally broken down. Even in the coddled national capital, Caracas, trash collection has been severely limited, electricity and water are heavily rationed (and often unavailable), and food and medicine are increasingly difficult to find even for those who do brave the interminable queues. Every day, social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook are peppered with desperate pleas for help in acquiring medications: often from anguished parents for their children. (Needless to say, Health Minister Luisana Melo’s recent conjecture that Venezuelans “use more medicine than anywhere else in the world,” and that scarcity could readily be solved if Venezuelan were to curb their “irrational” lust for pharmaceuticals, has not been warmly received.)

Lissette García belongs to what was once the Caracas middle class. The 48-year-old single mother of two has a steady job, but she worries she may lose it given the amount of time she spends in line each week. “Sometimes you wait in line for many hours only to find they don’t have the products you need,” she says. “It’s humiliating.” Increasingly she’s been asking her mother, 77, to spell her in the queues — though she worries about her mom braving the tropical sun, not to mention the company. “It’s frightening,” Garcia says. “You’re massed together with strangers from every part of the city, at all hours, and anything can happen.” She doesn’t just mean those standing in line with her. Caracas is, after all, one of the world’s most crime-ridden cities, and citizens stuck in slow-moving lines that stretch for blocks sometimes prove sitting ducks for the city’s many motorcycles gangs.

Aracelis Ibarra, a 74-year-old cancer survivor from a low-income part of town, has become the person sent to brave the lines for her family. “[The authorities] don’t respect one’s age in most places, so you wait there like everyone else,” Ibarra says. She worries that as scarcity has become more acute, and lines longer, people have become more aggressive. “People sell their spaces to others,” she complains, referring to the new cottage industry of professional queuers that has cropped up. These entrepreneurs sometimes even advertise their services in local newspapers. “[Other times people] cut in line or attempt to buy all the products, and that’s when fights break out,” Ibarra says. In the chaos that results from such situations, businesses are sometimes sacked and would-be shoppers injured, interactions that are sometimes caught on cell phone cameras and uploaded to YouTube.

Such frustrations represent a dangerous prospect for the government. Back in 2014, the country saw a rash of larger public disturbances that paralyzed much of the capital but were nonetheless primarily contained to middle class areas. The last large-scale citywide civil strife, known as the Caracazo riots, took place in 1989, when public resentment of IMF-backed economic reforms exploded in a burst of anarchy and looting that lasted a week, and killed many hundreds. The current government’s mismanagement of the economy and country’s subsequent economic collapse have made new reforms, similar to those that preceded the Caracazo, appear increasingly unavoidable. Given the vast supply of grenades, Kalashnikovs, pro-government paramilitaries, and narco-trafficking gangs in today’s Caracas, the damage and death toll of a new outbreak of mass violence would likely be even worse.

Meanwhile, in some ways, the misery of standing in line — which afflicts both the middle and lower classes — is uniting Venezuelans against their government. Since a particularly sought-after good may become ephemerally available on short notice anywhere in the city, desperate shoppers are often forced far outside their familiar neighborhoods. In this way las colas are bringing people from different social classes like García and Ibarra together, both physically and in shared frustration. Polls taken just before December’s legislative elections, when Venezuela’s opposition gained a congressional supermajority, showed that “scarcities” and “lines” represented the first and third highest ranked “national problems” (sandwiching “crime”) among potential voters.

So despite the government’s herculean efforts to mollify Venezuela’s frustrated people and keep class divisions high, time spent waiting in lines — useful though it may be for improving one’s spirituality — may also be forging an ever stronger and more unified consensus against an inept ruling party on its last legs.


http://news.yahoo.com/venezuelans-breaking-point-221434859.html
Title: The Last Days of Nicolas Maduro
Post by: captainccs on February 22, 2016, 05:29:54 PM
Few, if any, will mourn his departure


The Last Days of Nicolas Maduro
Foreign Policy Magazine By Peter Wilson
10 hours ago

CARACAS — On Feb. 14, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro warned his countrymen that the economic crisis they’ve been suffering through for months could last through 2017. He spoke not long after the supreme court approved his declaration of economic emergency, justifying his need for special powers.

What many doubt, however, is whether Maduro himself will be in power to witness an economic turnaround, as the pressures mount for him to step down or be pushed aside. “Maduro is facing a crisis encompassing economic, political, social and cultural factors,” said Caracas-based political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas. “It’s a perfect storm.”

And the president seems at a loss. A former bus driver who rose to become the country’s foreign minister and then vice president before succeeding the late Hugo Chávez in 2013, Maduro is beset by infighting within his own cabinet and divisions within his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) that have left him scrambling to survive politically.

Maduro also faces a revitalized opposition calling for his resignation, soaring crime, a possible debt default, and now, water and power rationing exacerbated by El Nino. “The government is at the helm of a sinking ship, refusing to change course, and the opposition is content to stand by and let it happen,” says David Smilde, a sociology professor at Tulane University who has studied Venezuela for over 20 years.

Even though the president raised domestic gasoline prices 60-fold on Feb. 17 while devaluing the country’s currency by 37 percent, he also raised the country’s minimum wage and pledged to revise prices on goods and services set by the government. But he forecast no easing of government control over the economy, hinting that it would only increase. Those measures “will do nothing to resolve Venezuela’s problems,” Luis Oliveros, an economist at the Central University in Caracas, said in an interview. “They will cause more inflation, and more distortions.”

Maduro has only himself to blame. For the past two years, he has promised to overhaul his government’s economic policies to deal with crushing shortages that have turned toilet paper and hand soap into luxuries, and soaring inflation that has given Venezuela the dubious honor of boasting the world’s highest inflation rate.

It all could have turned out differently. On March 15 of last year, the outgoing assembly, where the PSUV held a majority, granted Maduro the power to rule by decree, effectively allowing him to implement new laws without congressional approval. But Maduro failed to enact any economic changes, fearful of the political repercussions that a currency devaluation or cutbacks in social spending would unleash. That inaction led voters to punish Maduro and his party in December, when the opposition won a crushing victory in legislative elections, giving them control of the National Assembly for the first time in nearly 17 years.

Hoping to blunt opposition initiatives, Maduro asked the new assembly to grant him emergency powers to right the economy. Its members refused, but their decision was overturned last week by the Supreme Court, where PSUV partisans hold a majority. That body ruled that Maduro didn’t need legislative approval to declare an emergency. And so emergency it is.

Maduro now has 60 days to take steps to right the economy. Oliveros and others maintain that the only way to resolve the country’s economic woes is to dismantle state control over prices, foreign exchange rates, and to cut subsidies and social spending, all of which Maduro refuses. Instead, he seems to opt for greater state control.

“We have to regain this country and remake its production, distribution, and retail systems,” Maduro said in a televised address on Feb. 12, arguing that greater government control was essential to blunt an “economic war” allegedly being waged against his government by the country’s business elite, and exiles in Miami and Spain.

Almost everyone agrees that Venezuela, which has been unable to develop what are the world’s largest oil reserves, is in deep trouble. Economists forecast that inflation could top 700 percent this year, and that the economy could shrink by an additional 8 percent after last year’s 10 percent contraction.

The country’s currency, the strong bolivar, now trades at more than 1,045 to the dollar on the black market, in stark contrast to the official exchange rate of 10 bolivars to the dollar. Production of crude — which accounts for about 95 percent of the country’s hard currency revenue — continues to fall, and the state oil company is slashing investments to save funds. And staring the country in the face is more than $13 billion in debt payments this year that have raised fears of a default that would cut Venezuela off from capital markets.

Angela Munoz, a 52-year-old housewife in the town of El Consejo, has had enough of Maduro and his promises. She wakes up at 4 a.m. every morning to be among the first in line outside her neighborhood supermarket in hopes of buying hard-to-find items like corn meal, flour, laundry detergent, or coffee. She often wakes up to find the water to her apartment has been cut off, thanks to Venezuela’s ongoing drought.

After spending her day looking for food, she hurries home before 6 p.m. to avoid the thugs who live in her neighborhood. She and her neighbors only have police protection until late afternoon, when the security forces withdraw. The police claim that they can’t defend themselves, let alone the community, against better-armed gangs.

Munoz can no longer find medicine for her 75-year-old mother, who suffers from hypertension and diabetes. Now, she fears that the government has done nothing to confront an outbreak of the Zika virus in her town. Her husband can’t use his motorcycle because he can’t find spare parts.

“Just when I think life can’t get any worse, it does,” Munoz moaned. “I had hoped things would get better when the opposition won control of the assembly. I thought that Maduro would have to work with them to find solutions. It’s obvious that he only wants to stay in power, and we have to suffer the consequences until he is replaced.”

Venezuela’s opposition coalition, the Democratic Unity Round (MUD), has set a deadline of six months to force Maduro peacefully from office, either by a recall referendum or constitutional amendment that would shorten his term, which is currently due to end in 2019. “There is a huge majority who want change,” opposition leader and Miranda State Governor Henrique Capriles Radonski warned on Feb. 17. “This is a crisis that is accelerating each day and the government doesn’t want to do anything to change it. Our only option is to change the government.” Capriles, who lost narrowly to Maduro in a special election in 2013, says the opposition should pursue both routes — the amendment and the recall, both — to ensure Maduro’s removal.

But the MUD has moved carefully, especially after the Supreme Court ruled that three opposition legislators couldn’t take their seats, while it studied allegations of voter fraud.

Those three lawmakers would have given the opposition a two-thirds majority, sufficient to rewrite laws, replace ministers, and recall Maduro. The court hasn’t said when it will make a final ruling on the trio. In the meantime, they are waiting to see what the court rules, and may have to run again in a special election.

While the court dithers, the assembly has been concentrating on smaller projects: granting property rights to recipients of government housing, raising pensions and benefits, and freeing political prisoners, while pressing the government to advance its economic proposals. The opposition is letting “the government stew in its own juices,” Smilde said. “The opposition is essentially letting the government spend what political capital it has resisting change, in order to push for an end to Maduro’s presidency.”

The fear of a social explosion may result in an internal coup against Maduro, as PSUV activists and the military high command seek to protect their positions and the riches they have accumulated under 17 years of chávismo, the social, political, and economic movement created by Chavez that sought to redistribute the country’s oil wealth but according to the government’s dictates. “Maduro may be offered up as a sacrificial lamb, [replaced by a] new leader put in place by the PSUV,” Yorde said. “A new government then might try to work with the opposition in a unity government.”

Whatever happens, change can’t happen too soon for Munoz.“I can’t imagine any changes being worse than what we have right now,” she said. “It’s time to turn the page.”

http://news.yahoo.com/last-days-nicolas-maduro-143821462.html

Title: Venezuela Imposes 2 Day (public sector) Work Week
Post by: DougMacG on April 27, 2016, 10:46:47 AM
Pretty soon we can merge our Venezuela and America under Leftism threads, same content.  Public employees will now be taking Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays off.  "Full salaries will still be paid despite the two-day week."  - They won't use water or electricity at home?

Venezuela Imposes 2 Day Work Week

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-energy-2-day-work-week_us_5720bb05e4b01a5ebde403ce

The country, which is going through a recession, is also suffering from water shortages and electricity cuts.

President Nicolas Maduro had already given most of Venezuela’s 2.8 million state employees Fridays off during April and May to cut down on electricity consumption.

“From tomorrow, for at least two weeks, we are going to have Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays as non-working days for the public sector,” Maduro said on his weekly television program.

President Nicolas Maduro had already given most of Venezuela’s 2.8 million state employees Fridays off during April and May to cut down on electricity consumption.

“From tomorrow, for at least two weeks, we are going to have Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays as non-working days for the public sector,” Maduro said on his weekly television program. ... Full salaries will still be paid despite the two-day week.
...
Drought has reduced water levels at Venezuela’s main dam and hydroelectric plant in Guri to near-critical levels. The dam provides for about two-thirds of the nation’s energy needs.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It would seem to me they have a freedom and prosperity shortage and just looking at the symptoms.  Hydro electric is great, but safe, clean, reliable electricity today requires state of the art nuclear facilities.  Nuclear is less susceptible to El Niño.  Is it hard to attract private investment after confiscating and nationalizing all the previous ones?  

A country located on a rising ocean might not have a water shortage but insufficient desalination capacity.

Combustion of hydrocarbons around the world releases more H2O than CO2.  By now we should be swimming in it.
Title: Re: Venezuela, Opposition leader assassinated?
Post by: DougMacG on May 09, 2016, 05:05:03 PM
Venezuela, Opposition leader assassinated, shot in the head.  I saw this headline over the weekend.  I thought this is a huge, terrible and startling development.  Now I see almost nothing on it.  A search mostly brings up a previous assassination of an opposition leader.

[Why are we following Venezuela's lead on policies and in returning the Clintons to the White House?]

Looking forward to reports from Denny.

Leader of opposition party in Venezuela assassinated,    May 07, 2016
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2016/05/06/leader-opposition-party-in-venezuela-assassinated/

Venezuelan Opposition Leader Assassinated Days After 1.8 Million Sign Petition To Oust Maduro
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-08/venezuelan-opposition-leader-assassinated-days-after-18-million-sign-petition-oust-m

Venezuela opposition politician Luis Manuel Diaz killed   (26 November 2015)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34929332
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 09, 2016, 06:21:59 PM
There are lots of headlines but no real news about the killing.

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=German+Mavare&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=ZykxV-zbMoqw8webgrbYDA

I suspect that it is of little interest to the press outside the country and inside there is quite a bit of censorship to keep real news off the air. I know for certain that CANTV blocks certain IP addresses and with the frequent power cuts the local DNS service is extremely slow. About a month ago I reset the DNS IP addresses in my computer to stop using the local service and instead use a public DNS service in the USA. My Internet quality of service has improved and I can access Dollar Today, blocked by CANTV, directly, no problem: https://dolartoday.com

I signed the recall petition on April 29. The man on the street does not know who will replace Maduro if recalled and does not seem to care. If Maduro is recalled then the VP takes charge and that is another Chavista so there really is no change. I don't see what the opposition thinks it will gain with the recall.

There is a lot of discontent on the street but it does not go beyond a lot of muttering. People are busy trying to make ends meet. Strange as it may seem, life goes on. For over a quarter of a century no one dared increase the price of gas. The price I now pay has gone up over ten fold and nothing has happened. To me it feels like a lack of leadership. Despite the 2/3rd supermajority in the National Assembly (AN) the opposition is powerless. The supreme court is packed with Chavistas and it blocks the AN at every turn.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on May 10, 2016, 06:31:15 AM
 "The man on the street does not know who will replace Maduro if recalled and does not seem to care."

This to me seems remarkable. Propaganda and censorship really does work I guess.

If people start to lack food than it may be as Michael Savage has suggested that is when they start to riot in the streets.

Title: Re: Venezuela, Opposition leaders assassinated
Post by: DougMacG on May 10, 2016, 07:29:25 AM
Thanks Denny.

I see similarities to Saddam's Iraq.  It's hard to organize a take to the street movement when they shoot opposition leaders in the head - openly in public, ignore it on the news and then there is barely any news of it anywhere else either.  Where is Venezuelan election observer Jimmy Carter on this?  Whether you get 99% support in elections under threat of death or lose 2/3rds and stay in power anyway is the same result.  Elections don't matter; it is rule by force.  Sometimes regime change support can only come from the outside and nobody ever seems to want that. 

American colonist revolutionaries had help from the French, Spanish, the Dutch and others and would not likely have succeeded without all of that.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 10, 2016, 08:14:40 AM
Quote
Where is Venezuelan election observer Jimmy Carter on this?

That SOB was bought by Chavez. The Colombian observer (Gaviria?) wanted to make a statement and he was made to shut up. Later Carter praised the election as "fair" after an interview with Chavez.
Title: Venezuela finding out how socialism doesn't work
Post by: G M on May 15, 2016, 02:10:02 AM
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/maduro-orders-seizure-of-closed-venezuela-factories-jailing-of-owners/ar-BBt3bLI

But, but, it's scientific!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on May 15, 2016, 07:48:22 AM
 Carter

Every time he opens his mouth on the topic of politics I am reminded of what a progressive fool he was and still is.

He is no longer the best post President in our lifetime.

he won't be missed once the melanoma takes him to where we all go in the end.
Title: Re: Venezuela and the US socialism analogy (Cognitive dissonance of the left)
Post by: DougMacG on May 16, 2016, 06:19:27 AM
We consider our states to be 50 laboratories of democracy.  We can try different polices and see how they work.  That is my fascination with Venezuela as well.  

There are a ton of stories about Venezuela recently and over the weekend.  Terrible scarcities, chaos, assassination, coup speculation, inflation and so on.

Recalling the Jimmy Carter fiasco, my understanding is that he was our election, see-no-evil, observer during a Chavez recall election when Chavez was losing 40-60 and the official government cheating made that into a 60-40 victory.  My own shock wasn't the expected cheating but the fact that 40% still supported policies of economic failure.  The cheating would have been harder to hide if that support had been closer to zero.

This Saturday in Venezuela:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/maduro-orders-seizure-of-closed-venezuela-factories-jailing-of-owners/ar-BBt3bLI?ocid=iehp
Maduro orders seizure of closed Venezuela factories, jailing of owners
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday ordered authorities to seize factories that have stopped production and jail their owners, a day after declaring a state of emergency to combat the country's economic crisis.
"We must take all measures to recover productive capacity, which is being paralyzed by the bourgeoisie," he told a rally in Caracas.
"Anyone who wants to halt (production) to sabotage the country should get out, and those who do must be handcuffed and sent to the PGV (Venezuelan General Penitentiary)," he said

It would be an exaggeration to say that these are the policies young people here in the US at Sanders and Clinton rallies are supporting, but effectively, these are the economic policies we are pursuing and they are supporting and we know they don't work.  Minimum wage is just one example, government mandates what the private sector must do whether is makes economic or business sense or not.  Even the Trump side wants to take your assets if you try to close or leave.  How is that working in places that are further along wih it?

https://panampost.com/panam-staff/2016/05/14/venezuela-is-on-the-brink-of-social-collapse-national-guardsman/
Shortages Cause Daily Looting, Energy Crisis Worsens as National State of Emergency Approaches, May 14, 2016

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-concern-grows-over-possible-venezuela-meltdown-officials-022241019.html?nhp=1   Reuters: "an unraveling socialist economy"

Is there some other kind?

Title: Maduro “Announces” New Emergency Powers Decree
Post by: captainccs on May 16, 2016, 09:18:00 AM
Local analysis by The Devil (Miguel Octavio):


Maduro “Announces” New Emergency Powers Decree
May 15, 2016

Last Friday, President Maduro announced that he would extend the economic emergency powers decree (The same one that the National Assembly did not approve, but the Supreme Court said it did not matter) and announced that he would also decree a state of exception to “neutralize and defeat the external aggression against our country”

Now, you would think that given the importance of such a decree, the Government would have distributed a copy by now, but, no such luck, the details of the decree are unknown. Maduro will apparently issue it taking advantage of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the prior economic power decree, in which the “High” Court simply scratched part of the Constitution (Art. 339 of the Constitution, for example)  saying the Assembly did not have to approve the decree.

Some people are calling this a “coup”. I disagree. You can’t have a coup when you already staged one. I can’t even recall when this happened and one could argue when it was. It may have been when Chávez was never sworn in in Jan. 2013, as Chavismo suggested this was simply a “formality”. Or it may have been when Maduro took over from Chávez for the new term, despite the fact that the VP is named by the President and there is no proof that Chávez was even conscious at the time. Or it may have been when the Supreme Court twisted and violated the Constitution dozens of time, just to have the Government get its way.

So many coups and nobody has been counting them, but this was not it!

And the funny thing is that just last week, the Venezuelan Foreign Minister went to the UN to say there was no crisis in Venezuela, no emergency. Funny, no? the President not only extends the economic emergency decree, but also expands it to include a state of emergency.

And it just so happens that during a state of emergency, there can be no public gatherings like those the opposition has been promoting to protest the recurrent delays in the processing of the request for a recall referendum vote against none other than President Nicolas Maduro. Each step of the process has been delayed, over-interpreted and postponed, using vaporous interpretations by the Government-controlled Electoral Board. Which, of course has everything to do with trying to delay a recall vote until after Jan. 10th. 2017, when if Maduro is recalled, his personally-chosen active Vice-President would replace him and complete his term until Jan. 2019.

And thus, the threat is not from the outside, as Maduro wants you or someone to believe, but from the inside: the fear that the opposition will increasingly take to the streets to force a recall vote before the fateful date of Jan. 10th. 2017.

Thus, the guessing game begins as to who the VP will be in January. Opposition lore will have it be current VP Aristobulo Isturiz, “someone we can talk to”. Forget it! Aristobulo does not have the red credentials, nor the trust of Chavismo, precisely because the opposition can talk to him. It will likely be someone who is in the Cabinet, someone Maduro trusts. Perhaps Marco Torre, a loyal former military a perennial Cabinet member. Perhaps better a civilian, Jorge Rodriguez, loyal to Chávez and Nicolas. But who knows? There is still a lot of time before January and maybe not enough people will show up for a recall after that date*.

Stay tuned.

*Maybe I placed too much emphasis on who will replace him, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that there will not be much motivation to change Maduro for someone else. Remember that the opposition needs to get more votes to recall than Maduro got in his Presidential election.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 16, 2016, 09:31:24 AM
 :-o :-o :-o
Title: What can be learned from the crisis in Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on June 01, 2016, 08:45:48 AM
I hope Denny is well and has a plan in place to get through this, and I wish the best for all who have to deal with the man-made tragedy of the Venezuelan economy

Venezuela is facing a human tragedy.  People can't buy basic things, according to so many reports.  They are facing a near total breakdown of all things economic.  The crisis brings immediate questions, what can be done right now to survive this, and longer view questions, why did this happen?

"Maybe they went too far."  [with socialism and statism]  That is the best answer I have heard from the left here as to why socialism failed Venezuela (yet we keep pursuing same or similar policies here.)

If economic freedom is the engine of propulsion, then social programs, centralized authority and cronyism are the brakes.  When the brakes are stronger than the engine, the system halts.  There is a limit to how badly you can cripple your private economy without stalling it and there is a limit to how heavy of a load it can carry.  Don't cripple production and weigh down the load at the same time, but isn't that the way these things go?

Zero growth, like we have in the US, is not the limit of dysfunction.  Zero production is.  In a closed system, zero production means death, literally.  Venezuela doesn't have zero production, but they have real qand significant decline that has the potential to spiral further downward.  When you don't have electricity, water, gas, food or even rule of law, you can't produce if you want to. 

In the US, we have the contention of a formerly dynamic private economy fighting against the weight of an ever-growing public burden.  The corporate tax rate is the highest in the world, and that is just one of the burdens slwoing activity and chasing out capital.  The number of people on food stamps doubled in recent years, and that is just one indicator that the weight of the load is increasing.  We have a some economic freedom left and some rule of law remaining.  After you are quadruple taxed and quadruple taxed again, you are free to keep the remaining fruits of your labor, and keep your factory open if you pay overtime healthcare and the like.

The strength remaining in our weakened private economy is about equal to the weight of the anchor we carry in this period of zero growth.  Our anchor will pull us all the way down if we add more weight to it or lose another ounce of strength.  We don't have any more room to do things any worse and not face collapse and crisis.


In Venezuela, they did all those things we hypothesize about in the heated talk about income or wealth inequality.  They cut out the capitalists, gave the money to the people [and to government and to the cronies], right up until they ran out of people to take from.  As Margaret Thatcher correctly observed and predicted, they ran out of other people's money.  Now we see how well a central authority replaces a free market. 

This time, as always, Socialism failed.
Title: Re: What can be learned from the crisis in Venezuela
Post by: G M on June 01, 2016, 08:47:53 AM
But, but, it's scientific!

I hope Denny is well and has a plan in place to get through this, and I wish the best for all who have to deal with the man-made tragedy of the Venezuelan economy

Venezuela is facing a human tragedy.  People can't buy basic things, according to so many reports.  They are facing a near total breakdown of all things economic.  The crisis brings immediate questions, what can be done right now to survive this, and longer view questions, why did this happen?

"Maybe they went too far."  [with socialism and statism]  That is the best answer I have heard from the left here as to why socialism failed Venezuela (yet we keep pursuing same or similar policies here.)

If economic freedom is the engine of propulsion, then social programs, centralized authority and cronyism are the brakes.  When the brakes are stronger than the engine, the system halts.  There is a limit to how badly you can cripple your private economy without stalling it and there is a limit to how heavy of a load it can carry.  Don't cripple production and weigh down the load at the same time, but isn't that the way these things go?

Zero growth, like we have in the US, is not the limit of dysfunction.  Zero production is.  In a closed system, zero production means death, literally.  Venezuela doesn't have zero production, but they have real qand significant decline that has the potential to spiral further downward.  When you don't have electricity, water, gas, food or even rule of law, you can't produce if you want to. 

In the US, we have the contention of a formerly dynamic private economy fighting against the weight of an ever-growing public burden.  The corporate tax rate is the highest in the world, and that is just one of the burdens slwoing activity and chasing out capital.  The number of people on food stamps doubled in recent years, and that is just one indicator that the weight of the load is increasing.  We have a some economic freedom left and some rule of law remaining.  After you are quadruple taxed and quadruple taxed again, you are free to keep the remaining fruits of your labor, and keep your factory open if you pay overtime healthcare and the like.

The strength remaining in our weakened private economy is about equal to the weight of the anchor we carry in this period of zero growth.  Our anchor will pull us all the way down if we add more weight to it or lose another ounce of strength.  We don't have any more room to do things any worse and not face collapse and crisis.


In Venezuela, they did all those things we hypothesize about in the heated talk about income or wealth inequality.  They cut out the capitalists, gave the money to the people [and to government and to the cronies], right up until they ran out of people to take from.  As Margaret Thatcher correctly observed and predicted, they ran out of other people's money.  Now we see how well a central authority replaces a free market. 

This time, as always, Socialism failed.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 01, 2016, 09:26:05 AM
Denny:

How are YOU doing?  Anything we can do to help?

If your prefer, email me at craftydog@dogbrothers.com

Marc
Title: Re: What can be learned from the crisis in Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on June 01, 2016, 11:59:13 AM
I hope Denny is well and has a plan in place to get through this, and I wish the best for all who have to deal with the man-made tragedy of the Venezuelan economy

Denny is very well, thank you very much. Denny has had a plan in place for over 30 years!


Viernes negro, black Friday, February 18, 1983.

I returned from a visit to the US the next day and discovered that the government had devalued the bolivar from 4.50 to 14.00 to the dollar. There was also a privileged exchange at 7 or 8 to the dollar, I don't remember which. Along with the devaluation came decrees to protect the poor from gouging capitalists like myself. I was selling Apple computers. We got them from the distributor at Bs. 7,000. The list price was Bs. 10,000 and we sold them with a 15% discount at Bs. 8,500. A 21.4% mark-up. The decree that bankrupted my business required me to sell my inventory at old prices, Bs. 10,000, the list price. There was no need to protect capitalists from capitalists, the distributor was under no obligation to sell old inventory at old prices. Do the math: 7000/4.5*14 = 21,778. I don't recall the price we were offered but it was higher than what I could my inventory for. Quite simply black Friday stole my working capital.

What I did to overcome the crisis is a long story but the stress finally got to me and I wound up in the hospital with a heart problem in 1984 or 85. Luckily insurance covered it. When my partners came to visit I told them that the government sons of bitches would not kill me. That's when the plan was born.

Venezuela has been officially socialist since January 23, 1958, the day Marcos Pérez Jiménez was deposed by the navy in combination with several socialist political movements that had been outlawed during the dictatorship.

Humans are gregarious and thrive best in a society that competes, trades and cares for the needy -- as far as possible. Neither extreme capitalism nor extreme socialism work. Somewhere in between we do best. I call this midpoint "pragmatic socialism." Pragmatic socialism has social safety nets but if everyone is in the net there is no one left to hold it up.

But there is a fly in the ointment! As Joseph Schumpeter wrote over 70 years ago (1942) in Capitalism, Socialism and  Democracy, the book where he coined the phrase "creative destruction," liberal democracy is not about governing as much as it is about winning elections. You only get to govern if you win the election or if you buy the elected.

While pragmatic socialism is OK, the safety net becomes an instrument to buy votes. The end is calamity. The right is not exempt, their safety net is for the banks and the wealthy, the so called "corporate socialism."


Denny has a plan

The issue is access to hard currency. Those who have it are doing fine. Those who don't depend on government handouts. And that is the game plan, subject the people to beneficence of the government. Mendoza didn't get dollars to import barley and Polar had to shut down. Cisneros got dollars and his brewery is doing just fine. The Cisneros have been buying politicians as far back as I remember, right, left, or center makes no difference, no ideology, just power and wealth matter.

With multiple exchange rates the government and its friends have access to hard currency which comes from the export of oil which is a government monopoly. The rest of us have to rely on converting our soft money into hard money in what is called "capital flight." That means investing outside your country which, in turn, means cutting investments in your own country. This is exactly what I proposed to do back in 1984 or 85, never again to invest in Venezuela, a country that has been good to me and my family and a people I like very much. But survival comes first.


The reality on the ground

There is so much more I could write but I'll cut it short showing how inexpensive Venezuela has become for those who have hard currency. The similarity with Weimar Germany is striking.

Some things are, indeed, in short supply. Amazon to the rescue! Packages under $100 come in duty free. So far I have used Amazon for Fruit of The Loom briefs and socks, underarm deodorant, bath soap, baking soda, Tums, fish oil and other supplements. People have been growing beards for lack of razors. Amazon has disposables at 70 cents a unit. Orders over $49 ship free. Orders under $100 are duty free. Figure expenses at 30%. Resell @ $2.00. Just a capitalist thinking out loud :evil:

My 19 year old GE washer dryer had a problem, the cycle selector switch jammed. I took out the switch and had it repaired. Labor $3.00. Parts $3.90. The fellow worked on it for about 15 minutes. Labor $12.00 an hour! This fellow is the owner of his repair shop. Had the rear brake linings changed on my Toyota Corolla. Parts and labor $21.00. Had the car washed, $2.35.

Last Friday I bought fruit from a street vendor: 7 bananas, 2 Kg (4.4 lbs); 5 hybrid mangos, 1 Kg (2.2 lbs); 6 smallish tangerines, 0.5 Kg (1.1 lbs). Total $1.60.

Soy sauce, 10 fluid ounces: $0.32
Worcestershire sauce, 10 fluid ounces: $0.20
Curry, 2 ounces, $0.65
Avocados $1.20 per kilo
Potatoes $0.90 per kilo
Chicken $3.25 per kilo

These prices are terrible for someone making the minimum $15 MONTHLY wage! If you have hard currency you are in the 1%.
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on June 01, 2016, 12:39:40 PM
Denny,

What would be the best thing to  happen to turn the situation around in Venezuela at this point?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on June 01, 2016, 02:34:23 PM
Quote
What would be the best thing to  happen to turn the situation around in Venezuela at this point?

Someone give me a magic wand and I redo Venezuela the way I like it.  8-)


Pragmatists have to replace the idealists. The road back is very painful. Internally the country has to become more productive and only private enterprise can do that. But LatAm capitalists need to be firmly regulated. In one of my prior lives (1965-75) I was a management consultant with very high access at BoD level. It was capitalism run amuck in 9 out of 10 cases. Dismantling price controls is very painful because prices rise faster than wages. Externally, the country has to adapt to the world economy to trade effectively. What should happen without delay is cutting the oil subsidies Venezuela gives many neighbors starting with Cuba..

There are fantastic amounts of money in play, not just the exchange control scam and the commissions from all the government contracts but also from the drug trade. Presumably the Venezuelan military is the largest drug cartel in the world and prime conduit of cocaine from Colombia to Europe. They are not going to give that up easily.

Exchange controls should be dropped entirely or eased out over a period of a year or less.

I don't particularly care who runs the country provided whoever it is takes a pragmatic view. I don't see the current opposition as capable of much leadership. For the past 17 years they have been outfoxed at every turn.

Support for Chavismo has been drying up locally and internationally. The government is slowly realizing that they have to generate income and cut subsidies if they are to survive. They see the Arab OPEC members doing the same thing. They raised the price of gas but it is still ridiculously low, now it costs me about 20 cents to fill the gas tank of my Toyota Corolla instead of just half a cent. I don't use my ISP's mail service which yesterday exploded with SPAM, all paid ads. It seems like CANTV is selling SPAM space (or their filters broke down). There is a lot more merchandise on the street which seems to indicate fewer controls. There seem to be more ships in Puerto Cabello, the main entry point for imports. The government announced LOUDLY that they were paying the interest on PDVSA bonds. One recently named Minister of the Economy who is an academic economist with zero practical experience but lots of harebrained theories was replaced by a more pragmatic person.

This might sound strange but it would be advantageous for the opposition if Maduro stayed in power until 2019 and was forced to improve economic conditions by removing price and exchange controls. The anger would be directed at Maduro and his follower would have an easier time completing reforms.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on June 01, 2016, 04:25:27 PM
Wow. no simple fix.
thanks for the informative response.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on June 02, 2016, 08:48:38 AM
Quote
It seems like CANTV is selling SPAM space (or their filters broke down).

The SPAM I'm getting via CANTV is all from top level domain .TOP and all the different domains are throw away domains created the day the SPAM was sent. Also, they all have a subdomain format (sub.domain.top) where the domain itself does not have an IP address. The accredited .TOP registrar is an outfit apparently in China.

Maybe CANTV's filters did break down or maybe China is collecting via SPAM

Quote
.Top domain apparently using spam to get to the Top
BY ANDREW ALLEMANN — FEBRUARY 18, 2015 POLICY & LAW 8 COMMENTS

New TLD registry sends spam to people who have registered other new TLDs.

[Update: See statement from the .Top registry below.]

How do you get attention for your new top level domain name in a crowded field? One new top level domain name company has apparently resorted to sending lots of unsolicited email — and likely scraping Whois to do it.

.Top is currently ranked #9 in terms of registrations, surely helped by a 99 cent price tag at some registrars. The company behind it, Jiangsu Bangning Science & Technology Co., Ltd., is also raising awareness by sending spam to people who own other domain names.
http://domainnamewire.com/2015/02/18/top-domain-apparently-using-spam-to-get-to-the-top/


Quote
Email Spammers Are Using Cheap .Top & .Pro Domains
Konstantinos Zournas  February 16, 2016

I checked the last 50 spam emails I received to see what domain names the spammers are using.

I have to say that this is not a scientific study in any way and maybe these spammers that are targeting me are using different domains than what other spammers are using. Nevertheless the results were impressing.

The domain names I found were used for the email address and the majority were also used for the websites the links in the email were pointing to.

So here are the results from 50 domains I checked:

.Top: 22 domains
.Pro: 15 domains
.Download: 6 domains
.XYZ: 2 domains
.me: 2 domains
.Net: 1 domain
.Biz: 1 domain
.Ru: 1 domain

http://onlinedomain.com/2016/02/16/opinions/email-spammers-are-using-cheap-top-pro-domains/


99 cent domain names are a mouth watering offer for spammers
Title: Re: Venezuela - forced labor, the government ran out of other peoples' money
Post by: DougMacG on August 01, 2016, 08:34:25 AM
From the US political point of view, how come liberals say they care about others but won't talk about the economic crisis just across the gulf from us?  Why are we pursuing their policies?

Venezuela's new decree: Forced farm work for citizens
by Patrick Gillespie, Rafael Romo and Osmary Hernandez   CNNMoney
July 29, 2016: 3:31 PM ET   
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/29/news/economy/venezuela-decree-farm-labor/

Venezuelans cross into Colombia to get food
A new decree by Venezuela's government could make its citizens work on farms to tackle the country's severe food shortages.

That "effectively amounts to forced labor," according to Amnesty International, which derided the decree as "unlawful."

In a vaguely-worded decree, Venezuelan officials indicated that public and private sector employees could be forced to work in the country's fields for at least 60-day periods, which may be extended "if circumstances merit."

"Trying to tackle Venezuela's severe food shortages by forcing people to work the fields is like trying to fix a broken leg with a band aid," Erika Guevara Rosas, Americas' Director at Amnesty International, said in a statement.

President Nicolas Maduro is using his executive powers to declare a state of economic emergency. By using a decree, he can legally circumvent Venezuela's opposition-led National Assembly -- the Congress -- which is staunchly against all of Maduro's actions.
According to the decree from July 22, workers would still be paid their normal salary by the government and they can't be fired from their actual job.

It is a potent sign of tough conditions in Venezuela, which is grappling with the lack of basic food items like milk, eggs and bread. People wait hours in lines outsides supermarkets to buy groceries and often only see empty shelves.

Venezuela once had a robust agricultural sector. But under its socialist regime, which began with Hugo Chavez in 1999, the oil-rich country started importing more food and invested less in agriculture. Nearly all of Venezuela's revenue from exports comes from oil.
With oil prices down to about $41 a barrel from over $100 about two years ago, Venezuela has quickly run out of cash and can't pay for its imports of food, toilet paper and other necessities. Neglected farms are now being asked to pick up the slack.

Maduro's actions are very similar to a strategy the communist Cuban government used in the 1960s when it sought to recover sugar production after it declined sharply following the U.S. embargo on Cuban goods. It forced Cubans to work on sugar farms to cultivate the island's key commodity.

It's important to note that Maduro has issued decrees before and they often just languish. In January, his government published a decree that put in place mechanisms to restrict the access and movements to the money in the accounts. In other words, a kind of bank freeze. However, that hasn't happened yet.

The National Assembly is expected to discuss the decree on Tuesday. But it would largely be symbolic: under Venezuelan law, the Assembly can't strike down a decree.
This latest action by Maduro may also be a sign that at least one other leader may be calling the shots on this issue. Earlier in July, Maduro appointed one of the country's defense ministers, Vladimir Padrino, as the leader of a team that would control the country's food supply and distribution.
Related: Venezuela's health care crisis
It's powerful role, especially at a time of such scarcity in Venezuela.
"The power handed to Padrino in this program is extraordinary, in our view, and may signal that President Maduro is trying to increase support from the military amid a deepening social and economic crisis," Sebastian Rondeau, an economist at Bank of America, wrote in a research note.
Venezuela is the world's worst economy, according to the IMF. It's expected to shrink 10% this year and inflation is projected to rise over 700%. Beyond food shortages, hospitals are low on supplies, causing many patients to go untreated and some to die.
The country's electoral authorities are still reviewing the petition, which Maduro strongly opposes.
CNNMoney (New York)
First published July 29, 2016: 2:06 PM ET




Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 01, 2016, 08:42:17 AM
How do you say "Gulag" in Spanish?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 01, 2016, 08:59:04 AM
How do you say "Gulag" in Spanish?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulag


I am going to guess the word is Venezuela.
Title: Venezuela's socialism creates wealth!
Post by: G M on August 14, 2016, 10:20:43 PM

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/9993238/Venezuela-the-wealth-of-Chavez-family-exposed.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3192933/Hugo-Chavez-s-ambassador-daughter-Venezuela-s-richest-woman-according-new-report.html

Title: Re: Venezuela's socialism creates wealth!
Post by: DougMacG on August 15, 2016, 10:37:09 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/9993238/Venezuela-the-wealth-of-Chavez-family-exposed.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3192933/Hugo-Chavez-s-ambassador-daughter-Venezuela-s-richest-woman-according-new-report.html

I didn't notice how attractive she is until I saw the $4.5 billion.

The US should follow Venezuelan precedent, empty those accounts, give the money to American agriculture and send food to the Venezuelan people.
Title: Maduro sells out to Capitalism!
Post by: captainccs on August 17, 2016, 05:52:05 AM
Every time Socialism fails they sell out to Capitalism or die.


Maduro says Venezuela signs $4.5 bln in deals that include Canadian and U.S. miners

Reuters   August 16, 2016
(Adds nationalities of companies, background)

CARACAS, Aug 16 (Reuters) - President Nicolas Maduro said on Tuesday that Venezuela had struck $4.5 billion in mining deals with foreign and domestic companies, part of plan to lift the OPEC nation's economy out of a deep recession causing food shortages and social unrest.

Maduro said the deals were with Canadian, South African, U.S. and Venezuelan companies, but did not specify whether contracts had been signed or just initial agreements.

The socialist leader, whose popularity hit a nine-month low in a survey published this week, said he expected $20 billion in mining investment contracts to be signed in coming days and that 60 percent of the income Venezuela received would be spent on social projects.

Maduro hit back at critics from the left who accuse him of riding roughshod over environmental rules and indigenous rights in the Orinoco mineral belt in Venezuela's south in his rush to shore up his government's precarious finances.

Venezuela has rich veins of gold and exotic minerals like cobalt, but the reserves have mostly been extracted until now by wildcat miners because of a long history of failed ventures and government intervention in the industry.

Venezuela recently settled a long-standing dispute with Canadian miner Gold Reserve over the country's giant Las Cristinas and Las Brisas concessions.

(Reporting by Diego Ore; Writing by Frank Jack Daniel; Editing by Sandra Maler and Peter Cooney)


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/maduro-says-venezuela-signs-4-010428247.html

Title: Venezuela desetroying guns and counting ammo
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 18, 2016, 12:06:38 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-crime-idUSKCN10S2I9
Title: Toma de Caracas
Post by: captainccs on August 31, 2016, 09:23:07 PM
The opposition has prepared a major demonstration in Caracas for today, September 1, 2016. It's not on the world news yet so I don't have English language links but for Spanish speakers...

Toma de Caracas

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=toma+de+caracas&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=gqjHV-WGH6TI8Aeyk4KgCA (https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=toma+de+caracas&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&gfe_rd=cr&ei=gqjHV-WGH6TI8Aeyk4KgCA)

Pictures of security forces supposedly on the alert

http://www.maduradas.com/culillo-a-mil-asi-esta-plaza-venezuela-a-pocas-horas-de-la-toma-de-caracas-fotos/ (http://www.maduradas.com/culillo-a-mil-asi-esta-plaza-venezuela-a-pocas-horas-de-la-toma-de-caracas-fotos/)

 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2016, 09:27:29 AM
This should be interesting!  Please keep us posted!
Title: Toma de Caracas
Post by: captainccs on September 01, 2016, 03:34:14 PM
The oppo read a speech.

Everyone went home.

It's raining cats and dogs.

So ends another day in Revolutionary Venezuela.

Yawn...
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2016, 08:31:11 PM
 :lol:
Title: Toma de Caracas
Post by: captainccs on September 02, 2016, 09:34:12 AM
A lot of people took to the streets but Maduro is still firmly in power. How to get rid of him?

PHOTOS: Venezuelans Take To The Streets In Protest Against The Government (http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/01/492260941/photos-venezuelans-take-to-the-streets-in-protest-against-the-government?sc=tw)
Title: Maduro chased by angry protestors
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 03, 2016, 10:36:08 PM
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/world/americas/venezuelan-president-is-chased-by-angry-protesters.html?_r=1&referer
Title: A socialist internet friend proffers this
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 04, 2016, 11:42:21 AM
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-and-venezuela-decades-of-defeats-and-destabilization/5434884
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on September 04, 2016, 12:30:59 PM
Sorry, I can't read that much crap in one sitting. But I do have an observation, I like the flag the article is flying, it's our true flag with seven white stars representing the seven provinces that made up Venezuela during our war of independence. Not that piece of crap that Chavez created adding an extra star supposedly for Cuba and making the horse on the national seal look forward instead of back.

Well, the guy is dead and soon his crap revolution will be dead too.

BTW, it's long been the view south of the border that the Monroe Doctrine was not "America for the Americans" but all of America, from pole to pole, for the United States Americans. When the Argentineans invaded the Falkland Islands, Reagan didn't protect the Americans of Argentina but helped the British from across the sea. Realpolitik is here to stay. Empire is empire. Not recognizing that reality is naive. But, as I told my friends in the 1960s, we have to chose between SOBs and I'd rather deal with the Americans than with the Russians. The Cubans chose Russia and they got half a century of penury. As soon as Chavez took us down that road Venezuela collapsed. It has nothing to do with imperialism and everything to do with markets. Remember what happened when Richard Nixon regulated gasoline in response to the Arab oil embargo? Long lines and plenty of violence.

Empires protect their backyards.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 04, 2016, 09:21:28 PM
I brought your comments to his attention.  Looking  forward to his response  :evil:
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on September 04, 2016, 09:57:28 PM
Sorry, I can't read that much crap in one sitting. But I do have an observation, I like the flag the article is flying, it's our true flag with seven white stars representing the seven provinces that made up Venezuela during our war of independence. Not that piece of crap that Chavez created adding an extra star supposedly for Cuba and making the horse on the national seal look forward instead of back.

Well, the guy is dead and soon his crap revolution will be dead too.

BTW, it's long been the view south of the border that the Monroe Doctrine was not "America for the Americans" but all of America, from pole to pole, for the United States Americans. When the Argentineans invaded the Falkland Islands, Reagan didn't protect the Americans of Argentina but helped the British from across the sea. Realpolitik is here to stay. Empire is empire. Not recognizing that reality is naive. But, as I told my friends in the 1960s, we have to chose between SOBs and I'd rather deal with the Americans than with the Russians. The Cubans chose Russia and they got half a century of penury. As soon as Chavez took us down that road Venezuela collapsed. It has nothing to do with imperialism and everything to do with markets. Remember what happened when Richard Nixon regulated gasoline in response to the Arab oil embargo? Long lines and plenty of violence.

Empires protect their backyards.


China along with Russia will fill the vacuum left by the US. People will miss the Yanquis.
Title: Re: A socialist internet friend proffers this - to excuse socialist failure
Post by: DougMacG on September 04, 2016, 10:35:34 PM
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-and-venezuela-decades-of-defeats-and-destabilization/5434884

About the author:  
http://fresnozionism.org/2011/11/dr-james-petras-yet-another-antisemitic-professor/
"Israel’s continued annexation and ethnic cleansing of Palestinian territory precludes any diplomatic process;"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-age-of-imperial-wars/5470957


It's quite a stretch to tie Venezuela's problems to anything other than the policies of Chavez and Maduro.  This is a case study in leftist economics.  In terms of policies, Venezueal is a leftist's dream come true.  Now the economic results speak for themselves.

Compare Chile's policies and results with Venezuela.  (Below)  Venezuela was the world's 10th freest economy in 1975 and dropped to world's least free economy in 2013 (on a list that excludes North Korea for lack of data).  Now people can't buy food.

From the article:
"The US relaunched a multi-pronged offensive to undermine and overthrow the newly elected Nicolas Maduro regime."

Absurd on its face that Obama was trying to overthrow the socialists in Venezuela.  Going back in time, it was Bush who trusted Colin Powell who trusted "observer" Jimmy Carter to 'certify' the fraudulent, failed recall of Hugo Chavez in 2004.

WSJ Sept 9, 2004, "Conned in Caracas"
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB109468774383413097

--------------------------------------
http://reason.com/archives/2016/05/24/5-ways-capitalist-chile-is-much-better-t

5 Ways Capitalist Chile is Much Better Than Socialist Venezuela

The story of Chile’s success starts in the mid-1970s, when Chile’s military government abandoned socialism and started to implement economic reforms. In 2013, Chile was the world’s 10th freest economy. Venezuela, in the meantime, declined from being the world’s 10th freest economy in 1975 to being the world’s least free economy in 2013 (Human Progress does not have data for the notoriously unfree North Korea).

1. As economic freedom increased, so did income per capita (adjusted for inflation and purchasing power parity), which rose from being 31 percent of that in Venezuela to being 138 percent of that in Venezuela. Between 1975 and 2015, the Chilean economy grew by 287 percent. Venezuela’s shrunk by 12 percent.

2. As its economy expanded, so did Chile’s ability to provide good health care for its people. In 1975, Chile’s infant mortality rate was 33 percent higher than Venezuela’s. In 2015, almost twice as many infants died in Venezuela as those who died in Chile.

3. With declining infant mortality and improving standard of living came a steady increase in life expectancy. In 1975, Venezuelans lived longer than Chileans. In 2014, a typical Chilean lived over 7 years longer than the average citizen of the Bolivarian Republic.

4. Moreover, more Chileans of both sexes survive to old age than they do in Venezuela. As they enter their retirement, the people of Chile enjoy a private social security system that was put into place by Cato’s distinguished senior fellow Jose Pinera. The system generates an average return of 10 percent per year (rather than the paltry 2 percent generated by the state-run social security system in the United States).

5. Last, but not least, as the people of Chile grew richer, they started demanding more say in the running of their country. Starting in the late 1980s, the military gradually and peacefully handed power over to democratically-elected representatives. In Venezuela, the opposite has happened. As failure of socialism became more apparent, the government had to resort to ever more repressive measures in order to keep itself in power—just as Friedrich Hayek predicted.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on September 04, 2016, 10:57:54 PM
Amazing how skilled those who conspire to make socialism collapse are. It's like a 100% success rate!
Title: Re: A socialist internet friend proffers this - to excuse socialist failure
Post by: captainccs on September 05, 2016, 04:58:51 AM
Quote
The story of Chile’s success starts in the mid-1970s, when Chile’s military government abandoned socialism and started to implement economic reforms. In 2013, Chile was the world’s 10th freest economy. Venezuela, in the meantime, declined from being the world’s 10th freest economy in 1975 to being the world’s least free economy in 2013 (Human Progress does not have data for the notoriously unfree North Korea).

Last week I watched Thom Hartmann talk about "The Crash of 2016." In the Q&A he was asked about libertarians. As part of his response he cited the deaths caused by the Chicago Boys! He is either completely ignorant about Chile, which I doubt, or a great liar. Chile was one of the few great economic successes in LatAm in the last half century. Listen to his distortions at 56:05 (last question)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=039Zh9KBCqY

--------------------------

In his own hand Thom Hartmann documents how bad he is at predicting things. Less that 120 days left for the 

The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America--and What We Can Do to Stop It
Hardcover – November 12, 2013
by Thom Hartmann  (Author)

https://www.amazon.com/Crash-2016-Plot-Destroy-America/dp/0446584835
 
Title: Re: Venezuela, "Conned in Caracas", WSJ 2004, "The fraud was centralized."
Post by: DougMacG on September 05, 2016, 06:51:41 AM
I'm sure we had this posted at the time but amazing how difficult it was for me through the should be unbiased google to find anything to back up my memory of the election fraud in Hugo Chavez' recall election.

"This is no small matter", they wrote then.  Look at what it means for the Venezuelan people now.  None of this had to happen.  Your socialist friend has his conspiracy theory backwards. 

Conned in Caracas

WSJ lead editorial, Sept. 9, 2004

Both the Bush Administration and former President Jimmy Carter were quick to bless the results of last month's Venezuelan recall vote, but it now looks like they were had. A statistical analysis by a pair of economists suggests that the random-sample "audit" results that the Americans trusted weren't random at all.

This is no small matter. The imprimatur of Mr. Carter and his Carter Center election observers is being used by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to claim a mandate. The anti-American strongman has been steering his country toward dictatorship and is stirring up trouble throughout Latin America. If the recall election wasn't fair, why would Americans want to endorse it?

The new study was released this week by economists Ricardo Hausmann of Harvard and Roberto Rigobon of MIT. They zeroed in on a key problem with the August 18 vote audit that was run by the government's electoral council (CNE): In choosing which polling stations would be audited, the CNE refused to use the random number generator recommended by the Carter Center. Instead, the CNE insisted on its own program, run on its own computer. Mr. Carter's team acquiesced, and Messrs. Hausmann and Rigobon conclude that, in controlling this software, the government had the means to cheat.

"This result opens the possibility that the fraud was committed only in a subset of the 4,580 automated centers, say 3,000, and that the audit was successful because it directed the search to the 1,580 unaltered centers. That is why it was so important not to use the Carter Center number generator. If this was the case, Carter could never have figured it out."

Mr. Hausmann told us that he and Mr. Rigoban also "found very clear trails of fraud in the statistical record" and a probability of less than 1% that the anomalies observed could be pure chance. To put it another way, they think the chance is 99% that there was electoral fraud.

The authors also suggest that the fraud was centralized. Voting machines were supposed to print tallies before communicating by Internet with the CNE center. But the CNE changed that rule, arranging to have totals sent to the center first and only later printing tally sheets. This increases the potential for fraud because the Smartmatic voting machines suddenly had two-way communication capacity that they weren't supposed to have. The economists say this means the CNE center could have sent messages back to polling stations to alter the totals.

None of this would matter if the auditing process had been open to scrutiny by the Carter observers. But as the economists point out: "After an arduous negotiation, the Electoral Council allowed the- -OAS [Organization of American States] and the Carter Center to observe all aspects of the election process except for the central computer hub, a place where they also prohibited the presence of any witnesses from the opposition. At the time, this appeared to be an insignificant detail. Now it looks much more meaningful."

Yes, it does. It would seem that Colin Powell and the Carter Center have some explaining to do. The last thing either would want is for Latins to think that the U.S. is now apologizing for governments that steal elections. Back when he was President, Mr. Carter once famously noted that the Afghanistan invasion had finally caused him to see the truth about Leonid Brezhnev. A similar revelation would seem to be in order toward Mr. Chavez.
Title: After 24 Years, I Am Leaving the Disaster Venezuela Has Become
Post by: G M on October 31, 2016, 05:20:58 PM


http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/27/an-elegy-for-a-broken-country-the-venezuela-i-am-leaving-behind/

After 24 Years, I Am Leaving the Disaster Venezuela Has Become

And my heart grieves for my friends and neighbors, who are stuck there — for worse is yet to come.

    By Peter Wilson
    October 27, 2016
   

After 24 Years, I Am Leaving the Disaster Venezuela Has Become

CANTON, Ohio — The question never varied during my last four years in Venezuela. It could pop up when I was waiting in a long line for the chance to buy bread or toilet paper, or while being interviewed by immigration officials when I renewed by residency permit.

Policemen always asked me when they did traffic checks, as did the woman at my post office.


“You can leave this disaster; why don’t you?” Depending on the questioner, I might laugh or smile before launching into my reasons for staying in Venezuela.

The people, the weather, the food and drink, the music and dance, the culture — all were part of my stock responses. If the questioner seemed interested, I might add that I had bought a house 80 minutes outside Caracas and had fallen in love with my village and its breathtaking views. Or how I loved to wake up to the calls of a band of howler monkeys and soft grunts of emerald-green toucans. People were always surprised that I grew my own coffee, as well as many of the fruits and vegetables I ate. They were just as surprised when I told them that I taught English for free at the two elementary schools and was a member of many of the late Hugo Chávez’s social experiments aimed at reducing poverty and creating a more just society.

But after 24 years in the country, I decided last month to do what all of my questioners thought I should have done years ago: I left Venezuela. It was perhaps the most difficult decision in my life, even after a wave of armed robberies in my village and mounting shortages of food, medicine, and spare parts that have made lives a constant struggle for survival.

Sometimes it seemed to me that only President Nicolás Maduro and I would remain in the country, which has seen 1.5 million inhabitants flee to seek better lives abroad since Chávez’s swearing-in as president in 1999. The exodus shows no sign of easing. In fact, it will probably get worse.

    Venezuela is on the edge of a political crisis that could push it into a protracted and violent conflict along the lines of Colombia’s civil war.

Venezuela is on the edge of a political crisis that could push it into a protracted and violent conflict along the lines of Colombia’s civil war. That possibility grew last week when a lower court in the country suspended a recall campaign against Maduro that is being led by the country’s opposition. Protests and rallies are set for this week, aimed at forcing Maduro from office. But with the government apparatus in his corner, as well as the leaders of the country’s armed forces and security services, Maduro may be difficult to topple, even if polls suggesting that 80 percent of the country’s 30 million inhabitants want him gone.

Even if he leaves office, Venezuela will need years to recuperate from the damage wracked by the socialist revolution spearheaded by Chávez and carried on by Maduro. The economy is in shatters, a victim of mass expropriations of local businesses and industries. Twelve years of price and foreign exchange controls, state giveaways, and rampant corruption have pauperized Venezuela.

Venezuela’s economy is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to contract by 10 percent this year, following a 6.2 percent contraction in 2015. Inflation is set to be the world’s highest for a fourth consecutive year, with the IMF projecting 480 percent for 2016; other estimates go far higher. One dollar buys 10 strong bolivars at Venezuela’s official exchange rate; on the black market, one U.S. dollar fetches more than 1,200. And despite the government’s rhetoric, Venezuela’s economy has for all intents and purposes become dollarized given the shortage of foreign currency.

When I arrived in 1992, Venezuela — which has the world’s largest oil reserves — was among Latin America’s richest countries. Today, the monthly minimum wage is barely $20 (at the black market exchange rate), less than Haiti’s. Extreme poverty and infant mortality — both of which dipped in the first years of Chávez’s presidency — are again rising. Oil production has fallen by nearly 25 percent since Chávez took office and decried foreign participation in the country’s energy sector; he milked the state oil company dry to pay for his social initiatives and his own political campaigns. Today, the state oil company is warning that it may default on its bonds. Production at the state steel company has fallen by nearly 70 percent since its nationalization. The power grid, under state control, suffers constant outages and service disruptions. Venezuela, which once exported electricity to Brazil and Colombia, had to ration power earlier this year.

Food production has cratered. In my largely agrarian village, my neighbors don’t have seeds, fertilizers, or pesticides. The government took control of the country’s largest agricultural goods company years ago, promising to make it more responsive and make Venezuela self-sufficient in food. The result has been just the opposite. Today, Venezuela is a nation waiting in line to buy scarce items such as bread, rice, pasta, and sugar; buyers now queue at stores the night before, hoping that hard-to-find items might appear.

Hunger stalks my village as well. My neighbors were innovative as we went on the Maduro diet. In lieu of cornmeal, they began cooking green bananas or yucca roots to make a dough which they then turned into the ubiquitous arepas. Beef and poultry were replaced by what they could hunt in the cloud forest by the village:


Opossums, sloths, porcupines, kinkajous, monkeys, and chacalacas all found their way into their cooking pots.

A few of us started a soup kitchen for the village’s most needy, asking our overseas friends for donations to buy food. Within days, we were serving meals for 90 people, up from the 30 or so we initially forecast. Still, that wasn’t enough for some: One elderly man died of malnutrition. Others began gathering up a paste made of chicken by-products such as guts and bones which one woman used to bring to the village for stray dogs. With a little onion and rice it was palatable, they said.

Medicines are almost nonexistent. Aspirin has become a luxury for many; diabetics, people stricken with cancer, and those with high blood pressure are out of luck. The public health system — which Chávez vowed to make the region’s finest — has been gutted. Those needing operations face waits measuring months, and the cost can be astronomical.

Chávez promised a people’s revolution, a finer form of democracy. Instead, Venezuela is now facing political repression. Under Chávez, the country’s institutions — from the courts to the military to the legislature — lost whatever autonomy they once had. All became appendages of the Bolivarian socialist revolution. Under Chávez, it wasn’t strange for the supreme court to open one of its sessions by warbling a pro-Chávez ditty. Or for the head of the National Electoral Commission to show up at Chávez’s funeral in 2013, wearing the armband of Chávez’s political movement.

Today, Venezuela’s jails are filled with political prisoners: people locked up for their beliefs and opposition to the government. Many faced trumped-up charges; many are still awaiting trial. The persecution continues: Maduro and his cohorts continue to strip opposition mayors of their posts, charging them with corruption. And though the government clearly has the resources to arrest those who disagree with it, they apparently lack the resources to tackle common crime.

This year, about 30,000 people in a country of 30 million will be murdered. In 92 percent of the cases, their killers will never be arrested. By contrast, about 13,000 Americans will lose their lives to crime this year — but that’s with a population 11 times that of Venezuela. Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, now has the world’s highest murder rate. And seven other Venezuelan cities are in the world’s top 50.


In December 2015, I became a victim, like thousands of others, of an “express kidnapping.” I was held at gunpoint for several hours while my captors debated whether they could get more money for me, or for my car. In the end, they decided that I would pay more to have my car returned than my neighbors would pay for me. I knew then it was only a matter of time until I left. I have tried to be optimistic about Venezuela’s future but I see few solutions to this slow-moving train wreck — and none that a reporter and a part-time teacher can affect.

Maduro and his backers refuse to accept that they are in the minority, and that their government and its policies have led to one of the great economic meltdowns in recent history. They have no intention of sharing power with the majority of Venezuelans who want them gone, or to put policies in place that might stop the bleeding and bring this country back together. Instead, they have used whatever means necessary to silence the opposition and remain in power, from jailing protestors to colluding with armed gangs and drug traffickers.

I suspect and fear that Venezuela’s political crisis will only be resolved with bloodshed. In such an outcome there will be many innocent victims, and I left because I didn’t want to be one of them. But my friends, my neighbors, and most Venezuelans unfortunately don’t have that option.

**Good thing that can't happen here!**
Title: Re: Venezuelans Now Weighing Their Cash Instead of Counting It
Post by: DDF on October 31, 2016, 07:55:52 PM
Supporting what GM just posted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-31/tired-of-counting-piles-of-cash-venezuelans-start-weighing-them
Title: Stratfor on recent developments in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 01, 2016, 12:04:41 AM
Editor's Note: Venezuela is one of Latin America's most dynamic and troubled countries. It had been relatively stable during the administration of President Hugo Chavez, but when he died, stability died with him. His successor, Nicolas Maduro, is now being challenged not only by Venezuelan citizens, who are angry as they struggle to obtain the most basic living staples and foodstuffs, but also by politicians inside and outside his own political party. The following piece provides updates to this crisis in real time.
Oct. 31: A Prominent Family Flees

As Venezuela's government and political opposition begin moving toward a political dialogue, at least one Venezuelan government official may be hedging against future risk. On Oct. 30, according to Stratfor's sources, three family members of Aragua state Gov. Tareck El Aissami departed from Caracas to Sao Paulo Guarulhos International Airport, Brazil, aboard a United States-registered GIV charter aircraft. Two of the three family members appear to be El Aissami's parents Zaidan and Mai El Aissami. There was no confirmation as to whether this was a temporary trip or a permanent departure.

The departure of an individual Venezuelan political official's family is not necessarily a significant item. But considered in the context of political events in Venezuela, it offers some insights into how the political leadership may view the coming months in Venezuela. The opposition and government began a political dialogue Oct. 30 under the supervision of the Vatican. The talks, from the government's standpoint, are an attempt to defuse the opposition's pressure on it. The opposition coalition was planning a protest at the presidential palace on Nov. 3, which could cause violence if anti-government protesters, security forces and pro-government citizens clash. Consequently, the government drew members of some of the opposition's major political parties, such as Accion Democratica, Primero Justicia, and Un Nuevo Tiempo into the negotiation, which is set to continue Nov. 11. Demands such as the release of political prisoners are expected to be discussed in future meetings.

But the uncertainty surrounding the dialogue and Venezuela's immediate future may be behind the El Aissami family's departure. El Aissami was one of the Venezuelan governors who aided in halting the recall referendum against President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month. Finding a compromise that satisfies the interests of an opposition determined to reach the presidency and of incumbents (such as El Aissami) determined to resist the opposition's incursions into the political arena will be extremely difficult, if not impossible. The negotiations could eventually fail, and major demonstrations might ensue. The next year also looks similarly bleak, as state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) may default on foreign debt payments — something that would result in an even sharper decline in imports over the next few years and a rise in social unrest and general lawlessness.

Therefore, the Aragua state governor's decision to send members of his family out of the country makes sense, given what the next few months in Venezuela potentially hold. If the dialogue fails, the opposition could call for further demonstrations, given that such protests are the coalition's last major tool to influence the government into accepting a referendum request or simply resisting retribution from the government. Given the stakes, such protests could drive a second wave of unrest not dissimilar to the one in 2014. Even without opposition-led demonstrations, a potential PDVSA default would complicate the government's ability to manage the country's economic decline over the next couple of years — becoming an even greater blow to the administration's attempts to win the 2019 presidential election.
Oct. 20: A New Roadblock to a Recall Referendum Emerges

The Venezuelan government's political future may be murky, but its immediate priority is clear: to block the opposition's attempt to recall President Nicolas Maduro. On Oct. 20, three governors belonging to the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) announced that the penal courts of their respective states had determined that the opposition had pursued its referendum movement illegally. Courts in Apure and Monagas states quickly followed suit. The judicial rulings against the referendum, though confined to the state level for now, could jeopardize the national movement if the Supreme Court upholds the lower circuits' decisions. Venezuelan opposition figures, fearing this might be the case, have accused the Supreme Court of preparing to halt the recall vote in its tracks. 

Two of the governors in question — Carabobo state Gov. Francisco Ameliach and Aragua state Gov. Tareck El Aissami — are longtime allies of former National Assembly speaker Diosdado Cabello, who is angling for the vice presidency. (The position would enable Cabello to eventually assume the presidency, should Maduro resign in 2017.) Though Cabello and Maduro have often been at odds with each other, they have found common ground in stonewalling the recall vote, at least until next year. Cabello, for his part, likely hopes that by averting a presidential upset, he himself can avoid being imprisoned in Venezuela or extradited to the United States, which is currently investigating drug-trafficking allegations against him.

But despite the two men's unity on this matter, the PSUV does not appear to be acting as a single, cohesive party. In the past few days, the Venezuelan government has made several seemingly contradictory decisions. On Oct. 17, the National Electoral Council announced that gubernatorial elections set for the fourth quarter of 2016 would be delayed until mid-2017 — a decision that poses a great risk to many PSUV governors, since voters may turn against the party at the polls as backlash over inflation and food shortages spreads.

Meanwhile, Maduro has been holding a series of meetings with former Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and U.S. officials on opening a dialogue between Caracas and the Venezuelan opposition. Several factions other than the Maduro administration, however, are exerting influence over the talks — including a group led by Cabello and his allies. Though Cabello and Maduro both seek protection from incarceration or persecution by any future administration headed by the opposition, that appears to be where their shared interests end, and the two are reportedly conducting completely separate negotiations with U.S. officials and political rivals. Likewise, the five governors may be acting on the orders of Cabello and his allies, independently of the president's wishes.

Should the Supreme Court uphold the state courts' decisions, the opposition is unlikely to get the legal approval needed to hold its recall referendum without gaining the cooperation of other government institutions. (Given the PSUV's near-exclusive control over these institutions, such support would not be forthcoming.) If the vote is canceled, it will raise an important question as to whether major political figures will approve of Cabello's role in the matter. With the country under mounting economic strain, and state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela inching closer to default, Cabello's attempts to deflect threats to his own power may do little to solve the country's — and ruling party's — deeper underlying problems.
Oct. 5: President Gets His Priorities in Order

Venezuela's leaders are still looking for a way out of the crises surrounding them. On Oct. 5, President Nicolas Maduro said that holding elections is not a priority for him. The statement refers not only to the recall referendum that the country's opposition has been pushing for — and that the government has been avoiding — but also to the gubernatorial vote that was scheduled to take place in November. Under mounting pressure from the opposition and from the United States, the president cannot defer elections indefinitely. Nonetheless, postponing the votes, or at least threatening to, could buy the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) some time.

Even as U.S. lawmakers call to increase sanctions on Venezuela, Maduro's administration has more to lose in allowing the recall referendum and gubernatorial elections to go on. The country's dire economic problems have cost the PSUV and its leaders popularity among the public. If the gubernatorial elections were held in November as planned, the party would likely fare poorly. Likewise, if Maduro were recalled this year, the PSUV could well lose power in the new presidential election. Although many PSUV governors blame Maduro for their waning support, they would rather protect their positions — and that of the party — by postponing the elections and the recall referendum.

In addition, several high-level figures in the party are under investigation by the United States for offenses such as drug trafficking and money-laundering. Maduro likely hopes to use their talk of suspending the votes to exact concessions from the Unites States with regard to the criminal charges or sanctions. Washington has already opened a dialogue with Caracas, sending U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to meet with Maduro in Colombia on Sept. 26. Still, it is unclear how the United States will respond to Maduro's comment about elections, since Washington has little to gain from negotiating with Caracas.

Either way, elections in Venezuela will have to resume at some point. As much as the ruling party stands to lose in a referendum this year, it can little afford the domestic unrest and international isolation that pushing the vote off indefinitely could bring. In the meantime, the PSUV will be working to figure out its next move.
Sept. 29: The Ruling Party Tries to Secure Its Future

As Venezuela's political opposition keeps pushing for a referendum to recall President Nicolas Maduro, the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is trying to secure its position in power. On Sept. 28, Carabobo state Gov. Francisco Ameliach said that if the recall vote moves forward, Maduro will probably appoint Diosdado Cabello, a former National Assembly leader and close ally of Ameliach, to the vice presidency. At the same time, there has been speculation — especially since the 2015 legislative elections — that the post would go to Cabello's longtime rival, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez. Either way, the rumors suggest an effort by Maduro's administration to ensure the party's continued influence in the country and to protect its interests in the event of a successful referendum.

Ameliach's comments may be little more than an attempt to ruffle the Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), Venezuela's opposition coalition. Cabello's appointment would stir up controversy in and beyond Venezuela. Over the years, the U.S. Justice Department has indicted several members of the PSUV government, including Interior Minister Nestor Reverol, the former head of the National Guard. Though Cabello does not currently face charges, he is close to the indicted officials and is generally perceived to be corrupt. In May, The Wall Street Journal published an article alleging that Cabello was under investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors for money laundering and drug trafficking. (Cabello, in turn, sued the newspaper for libel.)

Nonetheless, the conjecture over his appointment reflects the difficult position that the ruling party has found itself in. So far, the PSUV has managed to deflect the opposition's demands for a recall referendum, which the ruling party hopes to defer until at least 2017 to avoid early elections. As Venezuela's economic situation continues to deteriorate, however, the Maduro administration's future looks more and more uncertain. If the party is forced into holding a referendum after this year and Maduro is recalled, his vice president will take over until 2019, when the next presidential vote is scheduled to take place. Both of the possible candidates to assume the vice presidency seem to agree that a referendum this year should be avoided. After all, if the opposition rises to power in the wake of Maduro's recall, it could enact laws that would allow some fallen PSUV officials to be extradited to face charges in the United States.
Sept. 26: The Chances of a 2016 Presidential Recall Grow Slimmer

The Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), Venezuela's sole opposition coalition, has refused to accept the government's terms for a referendum to recall President Nicolas Maduro. On Sept. 25, the party's executive secretary said MUD would reject the National Electoral Council's requirement that the opposition collect signatures from 20 percent of registered voters in each state in order for the vote to be held. Rather than meet the council's high bar, the MUD called on Sept. 26 for Venezuelans to provide their signatures Oct. 26-28, indicating that the opposition intends to gather support only from 20 percent of voters nationwide. The coalition also advocated daily protests and announced plans for a demonstration to be held across the country on Oct. 12.

That Maduro's administration was able to extend the 20 percent benchmark mandated by the constitution to all Venezuelan states is, in itself, significant. It signals that despite the ruling party's internal divisions, all of its leaders appear willing to support the president's efforts to put off the referendum until 2017, if not indefinitely. Their backing puts the Maduro government on more stable ground by reducing the risk of an immediate recall vote. Should Maduro successfully delay the referendum until next year, a decision to remove him from office — the president's worst-case scenario — would still leave fellow party member and Vice President Aristobulo Isturiz in power.

Though MUD will continue to push for the referendum to be held in 2016, it is unlikely to be successful on its own. Maduro's administration controls enough of the political establishment to delay the vote past the end of the year. Resorting to disruptive protests, such as those seen in 2014, is not an ideal option for the opposition either since the government's security forces could shut down any demonstrations quickly. Protests would also risk dividing the coalition, since some of its factions likely would not support inciting widespread unrest.

The bigger challenge for MUD lies beyond December. The government appears to be united in its attempt to shut down the referendum movement this year, and possibly the next. Should it succeed, MUD's effort to position itself as a viable alternative to the ruling party ahead of Venezuela's 2019 elections will be made all the more difficult. Unless social unrest stemming from Venezuela's economic deterioration boosts the opposition coalition's popular support base, its hopes of forcing a recall referendum in 2016 are unlikely to be realized.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on November 01, 2016, 04:44:59 AM
Stratfor is talking bullshit!

Should the Supreme Court uphold the state courts' decisions,

It's a given that the rubber stamp court will do the government's bidding. It's a given that talks with the government only help the government, remember Jimmy Carter talking with Chavez after the election he came to observe? It's been 18 years that the so called opposition leaders have been totally useless. Forget about a political change in government, the buggers are going to die of old age like the Castro brothers and most other dictators.

Chamberlain talked, Nero fiddled, and neither solved the problems. We have 18 years of experience in the opposition's impotence.

BTW, did Stratfor mention the the pope is a Peronista or at last a sympathizer? Hitler also made a pact with the Vatican....

People might be sick and tired of the government but the people are not willing to rise up to gain their independence. Just last week I had a talk with a mother who said exactly the same thing that a mother said to me in 2004, "I don't want my children killed." Ask Crafty Dog why he took up martial arts. It was the need to use force in dire circumstances!

PDVSA just paid their bonds. The government knows who needs to be appeased and it's not the people. On the other hand, the formal economy disrupted by the Chavistas is being replaced by an informal one. Branded coffee is nowhere to be seen but homemade coffee is to be had in many places. Branded household products like detergents are not to be seen but a store near my home sells all manner of them, just bring your own container. During the Weimar Republic my family was selling wine wholesale in Berlin, just bring your own bottle. What else is new?

The government is letting the economy work well enough that the people are not ready to take up arms. And soldiers on the streets are dressed in very clean, shiny and brand new uniforms -- just in case. Make no mistake, this is a military dictatorship and, at least in my view, Maduro and his gang are just puppets.
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DDF on November 01, 2016, 07:39:40 AM
FTR, I too take issue with Stratfor's citing of a confidential informant as their source in knowing that ISIS is here in Mexico.

Also, it's good to have a firsthand account of what is happeneing in Venezuela captianccs, thank you. It interests me a great deal, because here too, there have been things that have been going on, and Mexico is socialist in nature, and I'm not certain that we're not all that far behind you, especially with the American elections looming, the importance of the American economy here in Mexico... strange days indeed.

I am curious though, are people as a whole, accustomed to violence in Venezuela, as far as having become desensitized to it, as with here?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on November 03, 2016, 07:45:22 AM
Also, it's good to have a firsthand account of what is happeneing in Venezuela captianccs, thank you. It interests me a great deal, because here too, there have been things that have been going on, and Mexico is socialist in nature, and I'm not certain that we're not all that far behind you, especially with the American elections looming, the importance of the American economy here in Mexico... strange days indeed.

Show me a country in America (pole to pole) that's not socialist/populist to some point or other. It's just that some are more to the left than others but all recur to markets to save them when they have screwed the economy sufficiently.  :lol:


Quote
I am curious though, are people as a whole, accustomed to violence in Venezuela, as far as having become desensitized to it, as with here?

What I know about Mexican violence is what I read in the news and good news is not news. From what I have read it seems to me that Mexican violence is mostly drug cartel wars and who the hell cares if they kill each other? Venezuelan news are highly censored, it's a crime to speak badly about the Glorious Revolution (shades of the former Soviet Union?). Based on what I observe, it seems to me that Venezuelan violence is more petty crime related although there is a lot of it.

BTW, when I read American news on Yahoo it seems that all white cops do is kill blacks and all men do is grope and rape women.

I make it a practice to walk the streets of Caracas, of "MY PART" of Caracas and to ride the subway. During the years I have been doing it I have not had any major incident. My cousin keeps telling me how dangerous it is. I learned a long time ago that this is not a city where you want to be ostentatious. And the people I meet during my walks are mostly rather pleasant. I don't think this headline would be of interest:

Old Man Walks the Streets of Caracas and No Harm Comes to Him.

Denny Schlesinger
Title: Re: Young socialist hardliner will lead Venezuela's economy TO UTTER RUIN
Post by: DougMacG on January 09, 2017, 05:33:35 PM
My heart goes out to all in Venezuela, especially to those who did not vote for this mess.  But that said, my fascination with their failed policies has to do with calling out liberals here in the US for their support for failed poolicies for us.  It's all Cognitive Dissonance of the Left, to me, wherever they live.

Venezuela boosts minimum wage by 50 percent
AFP   AFPJanuary 8, 2017
https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-boosts-minimum-wage-50-percent-235730192.html

Wealth through legislation and mandate.  With more than a little sarcasm, that ought to fix it! 
Title: WSJ approves Trump tweet
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 19, 2017, 08:12:41 AM
 Donald Trump’s Twitter habits often get him into trouble, but the President has outputted no better tweet than this one Wednesday: “Venezuela should allow Leopoldo Lopez, a political prisoner & husband of @liliantintori (just met w/ @marcorubio) out of prison immediately.”

This was one Trump tweet that didn’t make the front pages, but it might make a difference for the people of Venezuela, who have suffered immensely under the faux democratic dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro.

Leopoldo López was the leader of the Venezuelan opposition party Popular Will until Mr. Maduro railroaded him into a 13-year prison sentence two years ago.

The media have reported on Venezuela’s descent into status as an economic basket case, including shortages of basic foodstuffs and medical supplies. The Maduro government’s survival strategy has been to tough out criticism and let the Venezuelan catastrophe fade from international view.

Taking no chances of anyone noticing, the Maduro government on Wednesday shut down CNN En Español, the nation’s last remaining source of independent news.

But President Trump noticed. That tweet demanding the release of Leopoldo López belies Mr. Trump’s reputation for being soft on authoritarian leaders. On Monday the Trump Treasury Department put Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami on its sanctions list for allegedly aiding drug traffickers.

What a contrast this is to the help and support Venezuelans got from Barack Obama and John Kerry. Which is to say, essentially none, notably on the issue of recalling the despised Maduro government in a popular referendum. Last year the government-controlled national election council slow-walked a decision to permit the referendum, which never happened. International pressure, led by the Obama government, would have helped. It never came.

Credit is due the Trump Presidency for picking up this badly dropped ball.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 19, 2017, 08:18:55 AM
It sure is a refreshing change to see the US stand for good and against evil.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 19, 2017, 08:29:59 AM
Is it any wonder that the people who hate Trump love Obama and Clinton?

Last night I watched Trump's press conference. It was the first time I saw a POTUS taking on the press no holds barred. Trump is a breath of fresh air in Washington.
Title: average Venezuelan has lost 19 pounds
Post by: ccp on February 21, 2017, 01:44:38 PM
What is going to happen?  How long can this go on and how can this end?

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/02/20/maduro-diet-3-4-venezuelans-lost-19-pounds-2016/
Title: Denny, are you OK?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 30, 2017, 10:41:02 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-takes-power-from-legislature.html?emc=edit_ta_20170330&nl=top-stories&nlid=49641193&ref=cta
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on March 31, 2017, 05:43:14 AM
Crafty Dog, I'm fine, thanks for asking! Yesterday I went for a medical checkup (doing OK) and only found out about our new troubles in the evening when I heard a very loud "cacerolazo" (people banging on pots and pans to signal their opposition to the government).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGplI-IQEso[/youtube]
The NYT article you linked is correct as far as it goes. I haven't had a TV set in 25 years and my last radio broke down some four or five years ago. My source of information is the WWW but Venezuelan news are censored and muzzled so it takes some doing to find out what is really happening. I chanced upon the live broadcast of the President of the National Assembly explaining the issues from the opposition side's point of view. The truth is that everyone pussyfoots around the core of political reality in Venezuela,

A democracy by the consent of the military.

For a democracy to work all parties have to be willing to accept the rules of the game. A most telling example is that the British call (or called?) the opposition "Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition." The elephant in the china shop is the military, a good reason for the secretary of defense and the commander in chief to be civilians. In Venezuela both rules are broken. Some sixty years ago the then leader of the majority party asked his followers who their most dangerous enemy was. He got a chorus of standard replies: the Yankees, the capitalists, etc. "Wrong! Our biggest danger comes from the military" was his reply. From that meeting sprang up the policy known as "el bozal de arepa" (the bread muzzle). Politicians would allow the military to buy as many toys as needed to keep them happy and in their forts. In Venezuela the secretary of defense has always been a general and this separations of powers broke down completely when Chavez, a military commander, won the presidency. Venezuela has been a de-facto military dictatorship since 1998.

Why am I making the above emphasis? Because the President of the National Assembly last night practically begged the military to side with the opposition. The fly in the ointment is that the "el bozal de arepa" has been made so extensive that the military now controls the most lucrative activities in Venezuela from drug trafficking to food imports. When Maduro needed a "Tzar" to turn around the economy he didn't call on our most successful businessman but on a general.

The dismantling of the democracy started as early as 1998 when civilian gun permits were revoked in the name of public safety but with the real purpose of eliminating armed resistance by the people. A second and even more powerful blow was the packing of the Supreme Court with Chavez acolytes. The method was simple, they doubled the number of magistrates and appointed friends to the new posts. Now there was a new balance of power, a seemingly democratic one but dictatorial in practice.

This latest coup d'état was orchestrated with the help of the illegally packed supreme court and it will be enforced by the military. The mood in the streets is mostly how to survive another day. People have lost faith in both government and opposition.
 

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2017, 09:09:38 AM
WOW.

Keep us posted please, including your own adventures too should you wish.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on April 01, 2017, 10:18:58 AM
"The dismantling of the democracy started as early as 1998 when civilian gun permits were revoked in the name of public safety but with the real purpose of eliminating armed resistance by the people. A second and even more powerful blow was the packing of the Supreme Court with Chavez acolytes. The method was simple, they doubled the number of magistrates and appointed friends to the new posts. Now there was a new balance of power, a seemingly democratic one but dictatorial in practice."

Good thing that could never happen here!

Title: Maduro backs down!
Post by: captainccs on April 02, 2017, 06:45:21 PM
Back from the brink? Venezuela reverses its congressional ‘coup’ but tensions remain

BY JIM WYSS

CUENCA, ECUADOR

Venezuela’s Supreme Court on Saturday reversed a controversial decision that had stripped congress of all its powers, sparked fears of a coup and brought an anvil of international pressure down on the beleaguered socialist administration.

President Nicolás Maduro praised the court’s decision and said the “controversy had been overcome,” but the whiplash changes left many in the region uneasy — particularly since the theoretically independent court seemed to be following the president’s orders.

During an emergency meeting of the Mercosur bloc of countries Saturday, the foreign ministers of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay issued a statement asking Venezuela to follow its own constitution and guarantee “the effective separation of powers.”

Opposition governor and former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles went further, saying the court couldn’t undo the damage by issuing “clarifications.”

“You can’t resolve this coup with a ‘clarification’,” he wrote on Twitter. “Nothing is resolved.”

The firestorm began Wednesday, when the Supreme Court — stacked with ruling-party figures — declared that it was assuming all legislative functions under the premise that the opposition-controlled congress was illegitimate for being in contempt of previous court decisions.

The move raised alarms around the region as it drew comparisons to former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori’s 1992 decision to dissolve that nation’s congress. The Organization of American States has scheduled an emergency meeting Monday, several Latin American countries recalled their ambassadors and the opposition took to the streets.

The decision even opened divisions within Maduro’s usually lock-step administration, with cabinet members and high officials saying the move was a violation of the constitution.

The backlash prompted Maduro in a late-night speech to ask the courts to review their decision in order to “maintain constitutional stability.”

On Saturday, the Supreme Court complied, publishing two “clarifications” of its rulings.

Supreme Court President Maikel Moreno in a press conference Saturday reaffirmed that the court would not strip the National Assembly of its functions or deny legislators their parliamentary immunity.

However, the courts still don’t recognize the legitimacy of congress, and the administration is likely to keep ignoring lawmakers as its done since the opposition took control of the body in 2016. 

Wednesday’s contentious decision that sparked the troubles was embedded in a narrower ruling that allows the executive to sign joint-venture petroleum contracts without congressional approval.

By all accounts, the cash-strapped government needs foreign financing to make interest payments and stay afloat, and congress had threatened to block new debt. According to local media, that part of the ruling was maintained. (The Supreme Court’s website where the decisions were initially published, was offline Saturday.)

Opposition leaders celebrated their victory, transforming their planned morning protest into an outdoor political rally welcoming the move. Hundreds of people joined them at their gathering in a wealthy area of eastern Caracas.

Several high-profile opposition lawmakers cut international trips short to participate in the impromptu celebration.

But the tensions are unlikely to subside any time soon. Lawmakers have threatened to retaliate by encouraging street protests and demanding the impeachment of judges who participated in the ruling.

Late Friday, Maduro suggested the entire mess was part of a larger plot, saying the country was the victim of a “political, media and diplomatic lynching.”

“Dark forces,” he said, “want to get their hands on our Fatherland.”

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS CONTRIBUTED TO THIS REPORT.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article142133004.html
Title: Why is this country starving?
Post by: ccp on April 22, 2017, 06:38:57 PM
This is crazy when you see this:

http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-world-s-largest-oil-reserves-by-country.html
Title: Why is this country starving?
Post by: captainccs on April 22, 2017, 08:13:08 PM
Why is this country starving?

Because minerals underground are not wealth.   :-(
Title: Re: Why is this country starving?
Post by: G M on April 23, 2017, 07:24:59 AM
This is crazy when you see this:

http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-world-s-largest-oil-reserves-by-country.html

There is nothing socialism can't fcuk up.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 26, 2017, 10:14:26 AM
Venezuela threatens to leave OAS over possible meeting



2017-04-25 | Venezuela | Politics — Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez stated on 25 April 2017 that if the Organization of American States (OAS) convenes a meeting of its foreign ministers, Venezuela will leave the organization. Seventeen member countries requested a meeting scheduled for 26 April to debate calling a session of the bloc's foreign ministers to discuss the situation in Venezuela (Tal Cual). Rodríguez specified that if the OAS approves such a meeting without Venezuela's approval, President Nicolás Maduro has instructed her to initiate Venezuela's withdrawal from the OAS (El Nacional). Globovisión noted that eighteen votes, an absolute majority of the OAS' 35 members, are needed to call a meeting of the group's foreign ministers. Argentina, the Bahamas, Barbados, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, the United States, and Uruguay requested the meeting.


Venezuelan government publishes opposition leaders' home addresses



2017-04-25 | Venezuela | Security — Venezuelan opposition Deputies José Guerra and Tomás Guanipa on 25 April 2017 demanded that the Public Prosecutor's Office investigate the government's Plan Zamora and the release of the Manual del Combatiente Revolucionario, which includes photos, personal details, and home addresses of opposition leaders. President Nicolás Maduro launched Plan Zamora on 18 April, labeling it as a civic-military plan to maintain internal order but not offering further details (El Nuevo Herald). PSUV Vice President Diosdado Cabello promoted the release of the manual on his television program on 19 April as part of Plan Zamora, commenting that government supporters must go where they need to go (Tal Cual). The manual contains personal information about opposition leaders such as Lilian Tintori and Deputies Henry Ramos Allup, Freddy Guevara, and Tomás Guanipa. In a statement, Guanipa urged the the Public Prosecutor's Office to open an investigation into Plan Zamora and the manual, which he described as instruments of repression and assault against Venezuelans that think differently (El Nuevo Herald).


PDVSA pays off US$237 million in debt



2017-04-21 | Venezuela | Energy — Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami announced on 21 April 2017 that state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) made US$237 million in debt payments. According to El Aissami, PDVSA has paid US$2.819 billion of the US$3.2 billion it owes, taking into account a recent payment of US$2.5 billion and an upcoming payment during the week of 1 May (El Nacional). El Aissami assured that future payments are guaranteed and added that President Nicolás Maduro has honored the country's debt payments without diminishing Venezuela's international reserves (Globovisión).


Title: May Day Alert
Post by: captainccs on April 29, 2017, 05:06:09 PM
Monday is May Day, International Labor Day, typically a day for parades by workers and speeches by labor unions and politicians. My cousin showed me a video taken today by friends of hers of a dozen or so 18 wheelers hauling field hospitals marked "Humanitarian Aid" on the freeway through Caracas.

Are they expecting something or is this psychological warfare?

My cousin used to work for Polar. Her retirement plan includes a monthly basket of food products made by Polar. She got a call warning her that the basket will be delayed this month because the Bolivarian Circles (Chavez brown shirt thugs) vandalized their warehouse trashing what they could not haul away.

I've been saying for over a decade that we won't be rid of these vandals until there is blood in the streets. It could happen any time, the pressure is getting to be unbearable.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 30, 2017, 04:28:15 AM
Not universally popular but talks show Michael Savage made a point by saying there will be blood in the streets when there is starving.  He said this when one of his callers was speaking about the second US civil war.

Sounds like your at that point.  Based on what we see in the news it seems like a charismatic leader can start organizing something - no?

Who will be the eventual hero of it all to emerge?

BTW, do you mean Polar beverages?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 30, 2017, 05:48:12 AM
Polar started out making beer but has since diversified into all sorts of foods one of the most popular being Harina  P.A.N., precooked corn meal for making arepas. They now export the stuff made in Colombia. Lorenzo Mendoza, the current head of Polar is probably the most successful Venezuelan businessman but no friend of the government. I doubt he would lead a revolt but he would probably accept an economic post in a new government.

(http://www.maxglobo.com/tienda/1004-thickbox_default/harina-pan-maiz-blanco-x-500-gr.jpg)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/Birra_Polar_001.JPG/200px-Birra_Polar_001.JPG)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on April 30, 2017, 06:36:37 AM
This must be different from the Polar beverage I know that makes the best chocolate diet soda:
http://www.polarbev.com/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on April 30, 2017, 08:32:24 AM
Earth has at least two poles so why not two Polars?

Founded 1941

Wikipedia - Empresas Polar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empresas_Polar)

Polar website (http://empresaspolar.com/)
Title: Venezuela news live
Post by: captainccs on May 01, 2017, 08:02:59 AM
A group of government supporters just went by my house (11 AM local time) and they were greeted by pot-banging. There were not enough of them to fill a city block!
Title: Re: Venezuela news live
Post by: DougMacG on May 01, 2017, 09:42:08 AM
A group of government supporters just went by my house (11 AM local time) and they were greeted by pot-banging. There were not enough of them to fill a city block!

I hope they don't know where you live.
Title: Re: Venezuela news live
Post by: captainccs on May 01, 2017, 10:37:57 AM
I hope they don't know where you live.

No need to be paranoid!  :-D

Some rich places are dangerous but I live in a middle class area. Thanks!
 
Title: Re: Venezuela, Maduro boosts minimum wage by 60%
Post by: DougMacG on May 02, 2017, 07:42:09 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39768671

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has ordered a 60% increase in the country's minimum wage, effective from Monday.

Including food subsidies, the worst-paid workers will now take home about 200,000 bolivars a month - less than $50 (£38) at the black market rate.

The pay rise is the third this year from Mr Maduro, and aims to benefit government workers and the military.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Hard to say what the wage increases are when inflation is running at 800%/yr!  The state of affairs in Venezuela is a human tragedy.  I also look at it for an economic model for us.  These policies are also proposed here and supported by roughly/nearly half the voters.  What has happened in Venezuela can't happen here (US)?  Why not?  Venezuela was the richest country in South America.  Venezuela right now is rated as having the world's largest oil reserves.  And they are broke, dysfunctional and hungry.  Why?  Bad policies have bad consequences.  That can't happen here?  It already is - in some places, to some degree.  It will happen here for certain - if we don't continuously choose a different path.
Title: Re: Venezuela, Maduro boosts minimum wage by 60%
Post by: G M on May 02, 2017, 07:50:42 AM
The US was built on magic soil. No lessons from outside the US apply here. Debt doesn't matter!


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39768671

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro has ordered a 60% increase in the country's minimum wage, effective from Monday.

Including food subsidies, the worst-paid workers will now take home about 200,000 bolivars a month - less than $50 (£38) at the black market rate.

The pay rise is the third this year from Mr Maduro, and aims to benefit government workers and the military.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Hard to say what the wage increases are when inflation is running at 800%/yr!  The state of affairs in Venezuela is a human tragedy.  I also look at it for an economic model for us.  These policies are also proposed here and supported by roughly/nearly half the voters.  What has happened in Venezuela can't happen here (US)?  Why not?  Venezuela was the richest country in South America.  Venezuela right now is rated as having the world's largest oil reserves.  And they are broke, dysfunctional and hungry.  Why?  Bad policies have bad consequences.  That can't happen here?  It already is - in some places, to some degree.  It will happen here for certain - if we don't continuously choose a different path.
Title: How Venezuela ruined its oil industry
Post by: DougMacG on May 09, 2017, 06:20:56 AM
Heavy oil has production challenges and it turns out that capitalism is capital intensive.  Jimmy Carter also tried to put 'excess profits' into social programs instead of into oil production machinery and expertise.  Chavez was more successful at it.

Now the Venezuelan oil sits in the ground and people starve.

Greed (self-interest) for Chavez and Maduro would have been to let the Venezuelan oil industry become the the biggest and the best in the world, instead of killing​ it.
--------------
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/05/07/how-venezuela-ruined-its-oil-industry/#7e6bb6d47399
Title: Re: How Venezuela ruined its oil industry
Post by: G M on May 09, 2017, 06:51:17 AM
Heavy oil has production challenges and it turns out that capitalism is capital intensive.  Jimmy Carter also tried to put 'excess profits' into social programs instead of into oil production machinery and expertise.  Chavez was more successful at it.

Now the Venezuelan oil sits in the ground and people starve.

Greed (self-interest) for Chavez and Maduro would have been to let the Venezuelan oil industry become the the biggest and the best in the world, instead of killing​ it.
--------------
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2017/05/07/how-venezuela-ruined-its-oil-industry/#7e6bb6d47399

Wait, you are suggesting that socialism might not work as advertised?
Title: Re: How Venezuela ruined its oil industry
Post by: captainccs on May 09, 2017, 07:49:41 AM
Wait, you are suggesting that socialism might not work as advertised?


The problem with altruism is that it is not self supporting.
Title: Re: How Venezuela ruined its oil industry
Post by: G M on May 09, 2017, 07:51:36 AM
Wait, you are suggesting that socialism might not work as advertised?


The problem with altruism is that it is not self supporting.

I have been told that marxism is scientific.
Title: Re: How Venezuela ruined its oil industry
Post by: captainccs on May 09, 2017, 08:02:04 AM
I have been told that marxism is scientific.


Scientific or not it is not self sustaining. Funny thing, Marx said that capitalism wasn't self sustaining.  :roll:

Title: Venezuela Boils
Post by: G M on May 10, 2017, 09:21:53 AM
http://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=29975

Venezuela Boils

The problem with reporting on the slow-motion trainwreck that is Venezuela is the “slow-motion” part. Things fall apart, children die, people starve, but it’s hard to gauge the rate at which the ship of state is slipping under the iceberg of reality due that giant gash of socialism in its side.

The crisis has now reached the “regular riots and soldiers shooting protesters in the street” phase:

An economy in shambles, lethal street crime, dungeons packed with political prisoners, and South America’s worst refugee crisis — it’s hard to find a misery that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government hasn’t visited on his compatriots in his four years in office. But by calling for a new constitution (Venezuela has had 26) as he did this week, Latin America’s ranking strongman may well have trumped his own dismal record.

On May 1, with the streets of Caracas and other major cities teeming with anti-government protests, Maduro announced a plan to convoke a constituent assembly to write a new constitution. As anti-climactic as that sounds, this was an autocratic milestone even for the country that has turned political and economic fiat into a science. In a single flourish, the Venezuelan leader proposed not just to bend the rules, as he has done repeatedly since coming to power in 2013, but also to junk the latest constitution — which his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, fashioned into a tyrant’s toolbox — and cherry-pick a Bolivarian dream team to deliver what will presumably be an even more authoritarian one.

If the proposal stands, as virtually all of Maduro’s decrees have stood to now, the new law in turn would bury the cherished trope among contemporary Latin American strongmen that their word, no matter how arbitrary, is still anchored in democratic process. “Maduro’s proposal was not just flagrantly unconstitutional. It was the most radical move in more than 17 years of Chavismo,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, chief political risk analyst at IHS Markit, a London-based business consultancy.

Brazilian foreign minister Aloysio Nunes went further, labelling Maduro’s proposal a “coup” and a breach of democratic civility. “Maduro chose to radicalize,” Nunes told me in an interview. “This proposal is incompatible with the democratic process, slams the door on dialogue, and is a slap in the face to the Pope’s appeal for a negotiated solution.”

Even the Secretary General of the Organization of American States has recognized that Venezuela no longer even pretends to be a democracy:

There are elements of dictatorships that are unmistakable. Today I must refer to one more in Venezuela: the passing of civilians to military justice.

Venezuela´s civic-military regime represents the worst of every dictatorship. That includes tyrannical control over political freedoms and the basic guarantees of the people, the elimination of the powers of the branches of government of popular representation, political prisoners and torture, starting with the armed collectives, a kind of fascist blackshirts, with orders to attack civilians during protests.

The accusations of military prosecutors to civilians is absolute nonsense in juridical terms.

In Venezuela, the rule of law does not exist even in appearance.

The accusations of crimes of vilification and instigation to rebellion, as well as other categories of a similar nature, are part of a reactionary discourse devoid of legal grounds applied against demonstrators. The reality is that they simply serve the purpose of depriving peaceful protesters of their freedom.

When a government considers that its people are a threat to its continuity it is because it is a government whose strategy is to continue without the people and on the basis of the use of force.

This constitutes a new violation of the Constitution, which in its article 261 says clearly that:

“The commission of common crimes, human rights violations and crimes against humanity shall be judged by the courts of the ordinary jurisdiction. Military courts jurisdiction is limited to offenses of a military nature.”

More scenes from the disintegration of Venezuelan society over the last few months:

More classic commie moves: arrest opposition leaders and charge them with plotting a coup, in this case Gilber Caro.
They also banned opposition leader Henrique Capriles from holding political office for 15 years.
Another opposition leader, Leopoldo Lopez, has just disappeared in prison. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
Though his wife Lilian Tintori has evidently seen him, and says that he wants the opposition to continue protesting. (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
“Last year, the average Venezuelan living in extreme poverty lost 19 pounds amid mass food shortages largely created and then exacerbated by government price controls—60 percent of Venezuelans said they had to skip at least one meal a day. Maduro joked that the ‘Maduro diet,’ as the government-induced starvation has been called, was leading to better sex, to the applause of government workers and party loyalists but few others. There have been shortages of food as well as goods like toilet paper, deodorants, condoms, and even beer.”
“Venezuela military trafficking food as country goes hungry.” (Hat tip: Ace of Spades HQ.)
“Facing a bread shortage that is spawning massive lines and souring the national mood, the Venezuelan government is responding this week by detaining bakers and seizing establishments.”
Eight Venezuelans were actually electrocuted trying to loot a bakery.
“Venezuelans are fleeing to Brazil for medical care…A spiraling economic crisis and hyperinflation have cleaned Venezuelan hospitals of needles, bandages and medicine. Desperate for care and often undocumented, patients are overwhelming Brazilian emergency rooms as they turn up by the thousands.” (Hat tip: Dwight.)
“Consumer prices in Venezuela soared by 741% year-over-year in February 2017.”
That hyperinflation was so bad that Venezuela outlawed their own currency. “In mid-December, the Venezuelan government surprised its citizens by withdrawing from circulation the 100-bolívar note, its largest and most used bill, with only 72 hours’ warning.” (Hat tip: The Other McCain.)
Statue of Hugo Chavez torn down by protesters.
“The Venezuelan government is investigating alleged corruption in a $1.3 billion contract between the state oil company and a private contractor co-founded by a Saudi prince, according to law-enforcement officials and related documents.” Usual WSJ hoops apply.
In Venezuela, the prisoners are literally running the prisons. (Hat tip: Director Blue.)
“Why is it that reporters keep scratching their heads about Venezuela’s descent into extreme poverty and chaos? The cause is simple. Socialism. End it and you will end the misery.”
“Chavista Socialism Has Destroyed 570,000 Businesses in Venezuela.”
Fracking means Venezuela will run out of money sooner rather than later. “A country like Venezuela, which was on the edge even before prices fell from $100 a barrel, well they’re running out of foreign exchange reserves, they’ve fallen from $66 to about $15 billion. And they’re collapsing and they’re running out of the ability to import food and other materials, and so there you’re dealing with almost societal instability, and order is being maintained by folks with guns.” (Hat tip: Stephen Green at Instapundit.)
Venezuela’s oil tankers are too dirty to be allowed to dock in foreign ports.
The regime’s useful idiots among the American left remain strangely silent as the country they once held up as a shining example of the success of socialism collapses:
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 NIRP Umbrella @NIRPUmbrella
Michael Moore:

In 2013, the American filmmaker tweeted the following about #Venezuela 🇻🇪...

This tweet has aged horribly...
6:56 AM - 9 May 2017
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 Feisty☀️Floridian @peddoc63
Bernie thinks American Dream move apt to be realized in #Venezuela
Would you like to retract that sentence @SenSanders ? #morningJoe
3:43 AM - 9 May 2017
Title: Re: Venezuela - Maybe they went too far (with socialism)
Post by: DougMacG on May 11, 2017, 08:27:15 AM
'[Marxism] is not self sustaining.'

Even the good parts of government or public sector functions are not self sustaining - without a healthy, vibrant PRIVATE sector.

I asked an honest liberal, a Bernie Sanders supporter at the time, why Venezuela failed.  They were doing the same things there that liberals wanted to do here and they destroyed the economy.  She said:

"Maybe they went too far."

Yes, exactly.  All countries and economies have some socialism in them, common defense, post office, roads, safety net for the poor, government encroachments on private sector activities, etc.  In Venezuela under Chavez-Madura, they went too far!
Title: Re: Venezuela - Maybe they went too far (with socialism)
Post by: G M on May 11, 2017, 08:29:14 AM
Parasites cannot afford to kill the host.

'[Marxism] is not self sustaining.'

Even the good parts of government or public sector functions are not self sustaining - without a healthy, vibrant PRIVATE sector.

I asked an honest liberal, a Bernie Sanders supporter at the time, why Venezuela failed.  They were doing the same things there that liberals wanted to do here and they destroyed the economy.  She said:

"Maybe they went too far."

Yes, exactly.  All countries and economies have some socialism in them, common defense, post office, roads, safety net for the poor, government encroachments on private sector activities, etc.  In Venezuela under Chavez-Madura, they went too far!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on May 11, 2017, 08:29:36 AM
Doug writes:

" an honest liberal"

isn't that an oxymoron?   :wink:
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on May 11, 2017, 08:41:17 AM
Doug writes:

" an honest liberal"

isn't that an oxymoron?   :wink:

No, it's what is more accurately referred to as a "useful idiot" by those who seek power via socialism.
Title: Re: Venezuela - Maybe they went too far (with socialism)
Post by: captainccs on May 11, 2017, 09:11:42 AM
All countries and economies have some socialism in them,

Voluntary cooperation is very useful in a well functioning society but that's not socialism. It's more in line with the original form of anarchism which was overthrown by people who though that strong leadership was required to implant socialism. Marx highjacked anarchism -- a very interesting bit of history that is mostly forgotten.

Voluntary cooperation is also aligned with altruism.

The problem with socialism is that a small group of self anointed elites tries to tell -- nay, force -- the rest of us to do as they say.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on May 11, 2017, 03:56:18 PM
"an honest liberal"  isn't that an oxymoron?  ... "useful idiot" by those who seek power via socialism.

I meant honest liberal in the optimistic sense.  Honest liberal is a temporary state.  A cognitive dissonant.
  An unstable compound.  The more honest you are - and curious and informed, the less liberal (meaning leftist) you will be.  So much of capitalism and conservatism is counter intuitive.  Acting in your own self interest like starting a business helps others, for example. So much of leftism is wrong in terms of policies and results.  Stealing capital from the rich didn't help the poor, for example.  Venezuela proved it.

The Venezuela experience gives us a time machine look at our (US) own future, following their path.

The 2% inflation target is a destructive force here over time.  Imagine 800% inflation!  And that isn't the central problem, just one of the symptoms.
Title: The Venezuela Diet!
Post by: G M on May 13, 2017, 12:15:33 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBf66wAMpVQ

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBf66wAMpVQ)

Good thing America was founded on magic soil that prevents such things from happening here!
Title: WSJ: Riot police looking for exit
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 18, 2017, 01:23:56 PM
By Anatoly Kurmanaev
Updated May 17, 2017 5:52 a.m. ET
266 COMMENTS

CARACAS, Venezuela—When Ana, a five-year veteran of the national police, finishes her night shift patrolling this city’s dangerous slums, she often arrives home only to pick up her riot gear and head out again to confront rollicking protests against Venezuela’s embattled government.

On those front lines, she and her colleagues use tear gas and rubber bullets against increasingly desperate protesters armed with stones, Molotov cocktails and even bags of feces. The showdowns take place in scorching heat, and she says the authorities provide her with no food, water or overtime pay.

Ana, who along with others cited in this article asked that her last name not be used for fear of official retribution, is one of about 100,000 Venezuelan security officers, mostly in their 20s, shielding the government of increasingly unpopular President Nicolás Maduro from escalating unrest.

She and many of her exhausted colleagues say they are wavering as protests enter a seventh week with no end in sight.

“One day I will step aside and just walk away, blend into the city,” she said. “No average officers support this government anymore.”

The security forces’ once fierce loyalty to Mr. Maduro’s charismatic predecessor Hugo Chávez has largely given way to demoralization, exhaustion and apathy amid an economic collapse and endless protests, said eight security officers from different forces and locations in interviews with The Wall Street Journal.

Most of them say they want only to earn a steady wage amid crippling food shortages and a decimated private sector. Others say fear of a court-martial keeps them in line.

“We’re just trying to survive,” said Caracas police officer Viviane, a single mother who says she shows up for protest duty so she can feed her 1-year-old son. “I would love to quit but there are no other jobs.”

(Opposition supporters using a giant slingshot to throw a ‘Poopootov’—a bottle filled with feces—during a rally last week against President Nicolás Maduro. Photo: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)

A full-time Venezuelan police officer or member of the National Guard, the country’s militarized police in charge of riot control, makes the national minimum wage of about $40 a month at the black-market exchange rates, the same as a cafe waiter.

“The security forces suffer the same as the rest of society from the economic crisis,” said retired Maj. Gen. Miguel Rodríguez Torres, who commanded national police in the last wave of anti-government unrest in 2014.

The current round of protests, triggered in late March by an attempt by judges allied to Mr. Maduro to dissolve the congress, have led to 43 deaths so far, mostly of protesters. Thousands of demonstrators have been arrested and hundreds are being tried in military courts for treason.

The epicenter of the protests has been the line where downtown Caracas meets the opposition-run eastern boroughs of the capital. Both sides view control of the city center as vital. The last large anti-government march that managed to reach the presidential palace there led to a short-lived coup in 2002 against Mr. Chávez. The opposition says the increasingly isolated government is scared of losing control if a rally breaches its stronghold.

“This is a war of attrition,” said Luis García, a student activist who has been at the forefront of the protests. “Whoever tires first will lose.”

Most days follow the same pattern: An initially peaceful demonstration disintegrates into violence as security forces fire tear gas and rubber bullets to block the protesters’ advance. The bulk of the demonstrators then flee, leaving the field to hundreds of hooded youths who call themselves the Resistance, build barricades and battle officers into the night.

“I don’t fear death, because this life is crap,” said Agustín, a 22-year-old Resistance member who blames Mr. Maduro for the collapse of education and job opportunities for young people.

Most guardsmen in Caracas have been confined to barracks since the protests erupted in late March, without seeing their families, according to several guardsmen interviewed.

“I feel exhausted from it all: the lack of sleep, the constant barrage of stones and Molotovs,” said Gustavo, a 21-year-old national guardsman, adding he has to keep performing riot duty despite a leg injury from a broken bottle thrown by a protester. “We’re being used as cannon fodder.”

Officers stopped giving time off in Gustavo’s barracks after 18 guardsmen deserted during the last break last month, he said.

Guardsman Juan, 21 years old, said he has been getting up at 4 a.m. daily in his barracks outside Caracas for the past month. He gets a boiled carrot or a potato for breakfast and is sent out to protest duty, sometimes until near midnight. Back at the barracks, dinner sometimes consists of a plain corn patty known as an arepa. On a lucky day, there will be butter, Juan says.

Riot duty is sometimes followed by emergency nighttime shifts to contain looting outbreaks. Guardsmen and policemen can increasingly be seen napping on Caracas’s streets in the mornings before protests gather pace.

As the unrest drags on, both sides are escalating violence to try to break the deadlock. Videos on social media have shown policemen and soldiers firing tear-gas canisters directly at protesters at close range, running them over with armored vehicles and beating them with shotgun butts.

Some protesters throw Molotov cocktails at National Guard vehicles to try to set them ablaze and others aim for soldiers’ heads when they launch rocks from giant makeshift slingshots.

    ‘I’m ashamed to say I’m a police officer. God willing, this government will fall soon and this will end.’
    —Ana of Venezuela’s national police

Armed pro-government paramilitaries add to the chaos, driving their motorbikes into protests to disperse them. Shots fired by paramilitary gangs have hit both protesters and policemen, according to opposition leaders and security officers.

The violence is driven by adrenaline, fear and self-preservation instincts rather than hatred, say both security officers and Resistance members interviewed by the Journal.

“These are my countrymen, I cannot hate them,” said protester Agustín of the guardsmen. “But when [gas] bombs start falling, what is there left to talk about?”

Police officer Ana says she no longer wears her uniform on the way to or from work to avoid being spit on or insulted by passersby.

“I’m ashamed to say I’m a police officer,” she said. “God willing, this government will fall soon and this will end.”

—Sheyla Urdaneta in Maracaibo and Maolis Castro in Caracas contributed to this article.

Corrections & Amplifications
Ana, who along with others cited in this article asked that her last name not be used for fear of official retribution, is one of about 100,000 Venezuelan security officers, mostly in their 20s, shielding the government of increasingly unpopular President Nicolás Maduro from escalating unrest. An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the number of security officers. (May 17)

Write to Anatoly Kurmanaev at Anatoly.kurmanaev@wsj.com

Appeared in the May. 18, 2017, print edition as 'Venezuelan Riot Police Tire of Front-Line Duties.'
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on May 18, 2017, 04:23:53 PM
The "Poopootov" is a terrific non-lethal highly demoralizing weapon. Imagine the poor officer having to wait for hours to clean up. And tomorrow expect more "Poopootov!" Do you really want to go to work?

It's a war of attrition and we are not running low on "Poopootov" ammunition.  :evil:
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 18, 2017, 05:30:23 PM
I make the tangential observation that the Venezuela thread on the Spanish Language forum is about to hit 300,000 reads.  Wonder who our readers are?
Title: Venezuela opposition condemns Goldman Sachs debt deal
Post by: DougMacG on June 01, 2017, 06:29:41 AM
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40101931
Protesters demonstrate outside Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York, May 30,

Opposition leaders in Venezuela have strongly criticised the investment bank Goldman Sachs for buying $2.8bn (£2.1bn) of government bonds.

Opponents of embattled President Nicolas Maduro say the move has given his government a financial lifeline.

The New York-based investment bank is reported to have bought the bonds at a heavily discounted rate.
Goldman Sachs said it bought the debt on the secondary market and did not deal directly with the government.

But the opposition has threatened that a future government would refuse to repay the debts to the bank.

The opposition-controlled Congress also voted on Tuesday to ask its US counterpart to investigate the deal.

"Goldman Sachs' financial lifeline to the regime will serve to strengthen the brutal repression unleashed against the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans peacefully protesting for political change in the country," said Julio Borges, head of Venezuela's Congress, in a letter to Goldman Sachs president Lloyd Blankfein.

"Given the unconstitutional nature of Nicolas Maduro's administration, its unwillingness to hold democratic elections and its systematic violation of human rights, I am dismayed that Goldman Sachs decided to enter this transaction."

He said he intended to recommend to "any future democratic government of Venezuela not to recognise or pay on these bonds".
Protesters clash with police during an opposition protest in Caracas, Venezuela

The Venezuelan capital Caracas is the scene of regular anti-government protests
BBC economics correspondent Andrew Walker says it is likely that the price was deeply discounted and, if the debts are paid on time, it would make the bonds a very lucrative investment.
However, the economic crisis in Venezuela means that a default is a real possibility, he adds.

The bonds were issued by Venezuela's nationalised oil company, PDVSA.
In a statement, Goldman Sachs said it made the purchase in the expectation that the political situation in Venezuela would improve.

"We are invested in PDVSA bonds because, like many in the asset management industry, we believe the situation in the country must improve over time," it said.

"We recognise that the situation is complex and evolving and that Venezuela is in crisis. We agree that life there has to get better, and we made the investment in part because we believe it will."
Venezuela is grappling with regular anti-government demonstrations and dozens of people have died in protest-related violence since April.
Title: Venezuela-- protestors burn Supreme Court building
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 14, 2017, 11:17:14 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/06/14/venezuela-protesters-burn-supreme-court-building/

It is Breitbart, so read with care.
Title: Constitutional Assembly
Post by: captainccs on July 06, 2017, 04:32:47 AM
A constitutional assembly is the latest ploy by Maduro to perpetuate himself and his military backers in power. The linked PDF by Caracas Capital Markets is the best analysis I've seen showing how Maduro is trying to thwart the will of the people. I have no ties to Caracas Capital Markets beyond the fact that Russ Dallen was my stock broker some 15 years ago.

Please give this document the widest circulation. It shows how a dictatorship can masquerade as a democratic regime by keeping up the appearance but thwarting the intent of democratic institutions.

Maduro’s “Hydrogen Bomb”

In the simplest Dantesque terms, Venezuela is entering a new circle of hell. For anyone concerned about Venezuela, what is now going on in Caracas represents the most important paradigm shift in the country since Chavez and sets in motion a coming inflection point and clash that is destined to become much more violent. While we have made allusions to Dante in these reports over the last year, Venezuela is now moving toward a new inflection point and into a new level of hell more closely associated with the late 18th century of Robespierre’s France rather than the 14th century of Dante’s Italy.

http://softwaretimes.com/files/venezuela+2017.pdf

Title: captainccs -question
Post by: ccp on July 06, 2017, 04:40:59 AM
what do you think is the end game here?

any way to predict?
Title: Re: captainccs -question
Post by: captainccs on July 06, 2017, 05:06:39 AM
what do you think is the end game here?

any way to predict?

Sadly, the safe bet is for the status quo to continue. I hope I'm wrong. Next to a true civilian uprising, which I see as unlikely, the other factor that could topple the government is national bankruptcy which is likely with oil under $50 a barrel. A more remote possibility is an uprising of "young turks" in the military.

March 31, 2017
Democracy by Consent of the Military

For a democracy to work all parties have to accept the rules of the game. A most telling example is that the British call (or called?) the opposition "Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition." The elephant in the china shop is the military, a good reason for the secretary of defense and the commander in chief to be civilians. arepaArepa, the Venezuelan cornmeal breadIn Venezuela both rules are broken. Some sixty years ago the then leader of the majority party asked his followers who their most dangerous enemy was. He got a chorus of standard replies "The Yankees, the capitalists.!" "Wrong! Our biggest danger comes from the military" was his reply. From that meeting sprang up the policy known as "el bozal de arepa" (the bread muzzle). Politicians would allow the military to buy as many toys as needed to keep them happy and in their forts. In Venezuela the secretary of defense has always been a general and this separations of powers broke down completely when Chavez, a military commander, won the presidency. Venezuela has been a de-facto military dictatorship since 1998.

Why am I making the above emphasis? Because the President of the National Assembly last night practically begged the military to side with the opposition. The fly in the ointment is that the "bozal de arepa" has been made so extensive that the military now controls the most lucrative activities in Venezuela from drug trafficking to food imports. When Maduro needed a "Tzar" to turn around the economy he didn't call on our most successful businessman (the CEO of the company that makes the Harina P.A.N. shown in the illustration) but on a general.

The dismantling of democracy started as early as 1998 when civilian gun permits were revoked in the name of public safety but with the real purpose of eliminating armed resistance by the people. A second and even more powerful blow was the packing of the Supreme Court with Chavez acolytes. The method was simple, they doubled the number of magistrates and appointed friends to the new posts. Now there was a new balance of power, a seemingly democratic one but dictatorial in practice.

This week's self-coup d'état was orchestrated with the help of the illegally packed supreme court and it will be enforced by the military. The mood in the streets is mostly how to survive another day. People have lost faith in both government and opposition.

Denny Schlesinger

http://softwaretimes.com/files/democracy+by+consent+of+th.html
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 06, 2017, 09:28:43 AM
Denny:

May I ask you to keep this thread current as well?

http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=727.400

Thank you,
Marc

PS:  How are YOU doing in the midst of all this?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on July 06, 2017, 04:45:12 PM
Denny:

May I ask you to keep this thread current as well?

http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=727.400

Thank you,
Marc

PS:  How are YOU doing in the midst of all this?

The other board is in Spanish and it's hard to find Spanish language news because there is a lot of local censorship.

I'm doing just fine. Having hard currency makes it easy to keep up with inflation and having lived most of my life in Caracas I know my city well and I know where to go and where not to go. My dad bought a house near where I live back in 1948, almost 70 years ago. I live in a middle class development that is of little interest to politicians and thieves so it's kind of quiet but quite close to the action. The political activity is fairy well localized to certain streets and buildings but it could erupt into more general mayhem. It will have to happen sooner or later because these guys are not going to go quietly.
Title: Maduro storm troopers attack congress
Post by: captainccs on July 06, 2017, 04:48:45 PM
The link to this article (at the bottom) has a video of the violence.


Maduro Supporters Storm Venezuela's Congress and Attack Opposition Lawmakers

Joshua Goodman / AP

Jul 05, 2017

(CARACAS) — Pro-government militias wielding wooden sticks and metal bars stormed congress on Wednesday, attacking opposition lawmakers during a special session coinciding with Venezuela's independence day.

Four lawmakers were injured and blood was splattered on the neoclassical legislature's white walls. One of them, Americo de Grazia, had to be removed in a stretcher while suffering from convulsions.

"This doesn't hurt as much as watching how every day how we lose a little bit more of our country," Armando Arias said from inside an ambulance as he was being treated for head wounds that spilled blood across his clothes.

The unprecedented attack, in plain view of national guardsmen assigned to protect the legislature, comes amid three months of often-violent confrontations between security forces and protesters who accuse the government of trying to establish a dictatorship by jailing foes, pushing aside the opposition-controlled legislature and rewriting the constitution to avoid fair elections.

Tensions were already high after Vice President Tareck El Aissami made an unannounced morning visit to the National Assembly, accompanied by top government and military officials, for an event celebrating independence day. The short appearance at the congress by top officials who have repeatedly dismissed the legislators as a band of U.S.-backed conspirators was seen by many as a provocation.

Standing next to a display case holding the founding charter, El Aissami said global powers are once again trying to subjugate Venezuela.

"We still haven't finished definitively breaking the chains of the empire," he said, adding that President Nicolas Maduro's plans to rewrite the constitution — a move the opposition sees as a power-grab — offers Venezuela the best chance to be truly independent.

After he left, dozens of government supporters set up a picket outside the building, heckling lawmakers with menacing chants and eventually invading the legislature themselves. The siege only lifted after seven nerve-wracking hours when police set up a corridor to allow the hundreds of people trapped inside the legislature, including lawmakers and journalists, to leave.

The brazen attack on one of the symbols of Venezuela's already limping democracy drew widespread international rebuke.

"This violence, perpetrated during the celebration of Venezuela's independence, is an assault on the democratic principles cherished by the men and women who struggled for Venezuela's independence 206 years ago today," U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said.

Despite the violence, lawmakers approved a plan by the opposition to hold a symbolic referendum on July 16 that would give voters the chance to reject Maduro's plans to draft a new political charter.

Later Maduro condemned the violence, but complained that the opposition doesn't do enough to control "terrorist attacks" committed against security forces by anti-government protesters.

"I will never be an accomplice to acts of violence," said Maduro during a speech at a military parade.

The clash followed Tuesday's appearance of two short videos by a former police inspector who allegedly stole a helicopter and fired on two government buildings last week.

Oscar Perez, repeating a call for rebellion among the security forces, said that he was in Caracas after abandoning the helicopter along the Caribbean coast and was ready for the "second phase" of his campaign to free his homeland from what he called the corrupt rule of Maduro and his "assassin" allies.

Perez gave no other details but pledged to join youth who have been protesting on the streets the past three months against Maduro.

"Stop talking. Get on the streets. Take action. Fight," he said in the video, sitting before a Venezuelan flag and with what looks like an assault rifle by his side. He also denounced Maduro's plan to rewrite the constitution.

"If this constitutional assembly goes through, Venezuela will cease to exist because we'll have given away the country to the Cubans," he said.

Hours later, another video appeared in which he urged Venezuelans to march on a Caracas military base, not the presidential palace, to locate and remove Maduro along with the ruling elite.

The bold though largely harmless June 27 attack shocked Venezuelans who had grown accustomed to almost-daily clashes since April between often-violent youth protesters and security forces that have left more than 90 people dead and hundreds injured.

Perez apparently piloted the stolen police helicopter that sprayed 15 bullets toward the Interior Ministry and dropped at least two grenades over the supreme court building.

While Maduro claimed Perez had stolen the helicopter on a U.S.-backed mission to oust him from power, many in the opposition questioned whether the incident was a staged by the government to distract attention from the president's increasingly authoritarian rule.

Adding to the intrigue is Perez's colorful past.

In 2015, he produced and starred in a film called "Suspended Death," and several photos show him in fatigues, scuba diving while toting an assault rifle, skydiving and standing in action poses with a German shepherd by his side. In his political debut, he read a manifesto in which he claimed to be part of a group of disgruntled members of Venezuela's security forces determined to save the country's democracy.Perez said in the video that the strike produced no casualties because he had taken care to avoid them. Neither of the buildings he attacked suffered damage. The helicopter he stole was found 24 hours later, abandoned in a verdant valley near the Caribbean coastline outside Caracas.

http://time.com/4846542/venezuela-government-supporters-opposition-lawmakers-attack/
 
Title: Leopoldo Lopez released to House Arrest
Post by: captainccs on July 08, 2017, 05:11:18 AM
This is a surprise move. I wonder what's behind it. Putting a kinder, gentler face on the tyrant?

Venezuela Releases Political Prisoner Leopoldo Lopez to House Arrest after 3.4 Years

CARACAS -- Venezuela has released political prisoner Leopoldo Lopez to house arrest according to the nation's Supreme Court and Spain's President Rajoy.

The Venezuelan political prisoner Leopoldo López has left the prison of Ramo Verde . López, who has been detained since February 2014, has been placed under house arrest and has been at home since Saturday morning, as confirmed by Spanish Javier Cremades, one of his lawyers. The Venezuelan opponent has returned to his home without accepting any conditions for his return, reports Cremades. The new measure - which in Venezuela is known as "house by prison" - coincides with three months of intense protests against the regime of Nicolás Maduro in which 89 people have died.
López, leader of the Popular Will (VP) party and exalcalde of the municipality of Caracas Chacao, arrived at his house at 4:00 am local time. His release has come as a surprise, even for his family. On several occasions he had expressed, through his wife, Lilian Tintori, that the condition to leave the prison was the departure of all political prisoners. López was sentenced in 2015 to 13 years, 9 months, 7 days and 12 hours in jail, to be served at Ramo Verde military prison. Judge Susana Barreiros found him guilty of participating and instigating the 2014 demonstrations, which killed 43 people and injured hundreds.
Title: Re: Leopoldo Lopez to House Arrest
Post by: captainccs on July 08, 2017, 05:17:51 AM
A different version at the same link....

Venezuela Releases Political Prisoner Leopoldo Lopez to House Arrest after 3.4 Years

CARACAS -- Venezuela has released political prisoner Leopoldo Lopez to house arrest according to the nation's Supreme Court and Spain's President Rajoy.

The Venezuelan political prisoner Leopoldo López has left the prison of Ramo Verde.

López, who has been detained since February 2014, was released Saturday morning and has been placed under house arrest.

Venezuela's Supreme Court said that he was released for health reasons.

The new measure - house arrest - coincides with three months of intense protests against the regime of Nicolás Maduro in which 89 people have died.

López, leader of the Popular Will (VP) party and exalcalde [former mayor] of the municipality of Caracas Chacao, arrived at his house at 4:00 am local time. His release has come as a surprise, even for his family. On several occasions he had expressed, through his wife, Lilian Tintori, that the condition to leave the prison was the departure of all political prisoners. López was sentenced in 2015 to 13 years, 9 months, 7 days and 12 hours in jail, to be served at Ramo Verde military prison. Judge Susana Barreiros found him guilty of participating and instigating the 2014 demonstrations, which killed 43 people and injured hundreds.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2439677&CategoryId=10717
 
Title: Stratfor: US and Russia almost agree on Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 13, 2017, 12:37:43 PM
The U.S. and Russia Almost See Eye to Eye on Venezuela
Protesters run from tear gas during an anti-government demonstration on during February in Caracas, Venezuela. A confrontation between government elites and a dissident faction of the ruling party is threatening to balloon into a wider conflict.
(JOHN MOORE/Getty Images)
Connections

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The political interests of Russia and the United States intersect in nations across the world, and Venezuela is no exception. Both global powers want political stability in the country, although for different reasons. The United States wants to avoid an escalation of violence there, and the Russians, as well as the Chinese, want to protect oil investments and the repayment of loans. And Washington and Moscow have ample reason to be concerned about Venezuela’s stability. A confrontation between government elites and a dissident faction of the ruling party is threatening to balloon into a wider conflict. Opposition-led protests have lasted more than 100 days, and unrest spurred by food shortages, inflation and deep dissatisfaction with the government is spreading. And because of the growing risk of a coup, middle-ranking officials in the armed forces are under increased surveillance. To further complicate matters, oil prices remain low and Venezuela's public finances are depleted, meaning that an economic recovery will take decades. In short, there is no simple way out of the crisis.
 
However intractable the country's long-term economic problems are, Russia or Cuba – a security ally to Caracas — may eventually provide some relief for Venezuela's immediate political problems through an offer of political asylum. Venezuela's deeply unpopular president, Nicolas Maduro, risks losing his office in an election scheduled for November 2018. The country’s ruling elites see this potential loss of power as an unacceptable risk to their political privileges and personal safety. In response, Maduro and political and military elites are pushing to rewrite the country’s constitution and purge dissenters from their ranks in an effort to cling to power. However, reports from Stratfor sources indicate that Maduro has also explored seeking political asylum. For more than a year, Stratfor has received persistent reports that he has considered asking for refuge in Russia or Cuba. He may have sweetened his request to Russia with offers of mineral concessions. But even if Maduro eventually secures an exile deal with Russia or Cuba, other military and political officials at risk of arrest in Venezuela or extradition to the United States will rely on the constitutional rewrite to improve their chances of political survival.
 
The talks on asylum appear to be part of larger discussions in which the interests of the United States, Cuba, Russia and China converge. According to a Stratfor source, Cuba is a key part of indirect talks between Russia and the United States on Venezuela. The government of Raul Castro conveys Russian and Chinese positions (as well as Maduro's) to the United States. And former Spanish prime minister and mediator Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero represents U.S. interests. Maduro ordered the release of opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez from prison on July 8 after months of negotiations involving Cuba and Zapatero. His decision, an apparent concession to the United States and the opposition, did not include input from key Venezuelan leaders like Vice President Tareck el Aissami or Diosdado Cabello, leader of the ruling party. Lopez's transfer to house arrest – a minor move compared to the larger forces affecting Venezuela — was likely intended to soften street protests. Lopez's release could also help Cuba curry favor with Venezuela's opposition. Given Cuba's reliance on access to Venezuelan fuel, Havana may hope that Lopez's release will help it curry favor with Venezuela’s opposition in case the Maduro government falls and the opposition finds itself in control.
 
For Moscow, its desire for a peaceful resolution in Venezuela likely lies in its vested interest in the country's resources. Russian oil company Rosneft owns stakes in joint ventures with the Venezuelan government in the Orinoco Belt. Separate reports from Stratfor sources suggest that the Russian government would like additional mineral concessions, although their nature and location are unclear. And an asylum deal may also have strategic implications. Brokering the departure of Maduro may give the Russians leverage in their broader negotiations with the United States on other contentious topics, such as Syria, Ukraine or the European borderlands. On the other hand, China is willing to work with any government in Caracas, as long as it respects China’s investments and repays loans made to the Venezuelan government, according to a source.
 
In contrast, specific U.S. interests in Venezuela are far clearer than those of the Russians. Although Venezuela is a secondary issue for Washington, a peaceful resolution is better than a violent confrontation. The United States would also like to see timely, fair elections in Venezuela, and the drug trafficking conduit through the country is also a continuing concern. However, Washington has few policy tools with which it can directly influence the political confrontation in the country. Aside from indirect discussions with Venezuela, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be relying on the limited avenues its predecessors used. In February 2017 the Department of the Treasury sanctioned Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami for his suspected role in cocaine trafficking to the United States. Additional sanctions may be implemented against individual Venezuelan political leaders. The Trump administration is still deciding whether to adopt a more aggressive stance, and the possibility of sanctions against the oil sector have been floated as a means of pressuring the government to hold free elections. The White House has also moved to tighten sanctions on Cuban entities controlled by its armed forces. In the near term, that move will drive the Cubans to continue to support the Maduro government.
 
A negotiated transition from the Maduro government — in which power passes to the vice president — could temporarily reduce confrontation between the opposition and the government. However, it is no guarantee of long-term political stability. According to a Stratfor source, the Russian or Cuban governments would be willing to accept the president and his wife, Cilia Flores, but not other political figures. Cuba may be willing to take in Maduro and his entourage, but large numbers of Venezuelan political figures could become a liability, given the potential for U.S. demands for extradition. In the absence of a political solution that protects their interests, vulnerable officials, who include El Aissami, Cabello, Interior Minister Nestor Reverol and members of the Francisco de Miranda Front, will keep pushing for an assembly to rewrite the constitution. And barring a drastic event, such as a successful military coup, this drive will move forward and remain a trigger for unrest. So, despite U.S. and Russian hopes, there is no easy way out of the turmoil in Venezuela.
Title: Venezuelans Rebuke Their President by a Staggering Margin
Post by: DougMacG on July 17, 2017, 05:51:26 AM
CARACAS, Venezuela — Millions of Venezuelans signaled their disapproval of President Nicolás Maduro’s plan to hold a constituent assembly by casting ballots on Sunday in a vote unlike any other in this nation’s history.

More than 98 percent of voters sided with the opposition in answering three yes-or-no questions drafted with the aim of weakening Mr. Maduro’s legitimacy days before his constituent assembly is expected to convene. Opponents see the assembly as a power grab by an increasingly unpopular leader and fear he may use it to do away with democratic elections.

Sunday’s exercise, known as a popular consultation, was organized by a slate of opposition parties that dominate Venezuela’s National Assembly.

Voters were asked whether they rejected the effort to hold a constituent assembly that has not been approved by voters; whether they wanted the country’s armed forces to uphold the current Constitution and the decisions of the opposition-run National Assembly; and whether they wanted free elections to pick a new “national unity government.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/16/world/americas/venezuelans-vote-on-measures-devised-to-weaken-maduro.html
Title: Stratfor: Washington weighs sanctions
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 22, 2017, 01:27:12 PM
As the United States considers what sanctions to levy against Venezuela, measures on financial transactions could be the most effective, Reuters reported July 22. Targeting financial transactions gives Washington the ability to drastically increase pressure on Caracas by threatening punishment of any U.S. firm doing business with state oil firm PDVSA or U.S. banks processing any of its transactions in dollars. The measures under discussion are similar to those imposed against Tehran, which halved Iran's oil exports and prevented top crude buyers from paying for Iranian oil. If enacted, such a move could be a crippling blow to the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, effectively starving the government coffers.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on July 22, 2017, 02:19:39 PM
Quote
The measures under discussion are similar to those imposed against Tehran

which did NOT topple the Teheran government, they just made people suffer more.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on July 22, 2017, 02:24:32 PM
Quote
The measures under discussion are similar to those imposed against Tehran

which did NOT topple the Teheran government, they just made people suffer more.


So, what should the US do?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on July 22, 2017, 02:35:45 PM
Quote
So, what should the US do?

Legalizing and regulating drugs (like alcohol and tobacco) would be a good start. It would bankrupt the Venezulean military, the word's leading drug cartel.

Prohibition didn't work and neither does the war on drugs. It just makes bad people rich.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on July 22, 2017, 05:41:57 PM
Quote
So, what should the US do?

Legalizing and regulating drugs (like alcohol and tobacco) would be a good start. It would bankrupt the Venezulean military, the word's leading drug cartel.

Prohibition didn't work and neither does the war on drugs. It just makes bad people rich.


The tangible real world effects of marijuana legalization seen firsthand aren't exactly as benign as promised.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on July 22, 2017, 06:59:11 PM
Quote
The tangible real world effects of marijuana legalization seen firsthand aren't exactly as benign as promised.

Neither is smoking tobacco or drinking alcohol. That's not the point. The point is that the war on drugs is pointless. As pointless as Prohibition was but some people just never learn. Anyone who expects humanity to be a bunch of saints is plain crazy. The best we can expect is to keep these things moderately under control.

The current state of the war on drugs is that it is not working because addicts still can buy the stuff, distribution is out of control, jails are full, and the bad guys are making a killing. What's to like? The war on drugs is an UTTER FAILURE. Typical political solution, if it does not work do more of it until it does. Like body count in Vietnam.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on July 22, 2017, 07:10:11 PM
Quote
The tangible real world effects of marijuana legalization seen firsthand aren't exactly as benign as promised.

Neither is smoking tobacco or drinking alcohol. That's not the point. The point is that the war on drugs is pointless. As pointless as Prohibition was but some people just never learn. Anyone who expects humanity to be a bunch of saints is plain crazy. The best we can expect is to keep these things moderately under control.

The current state of the war on drugs is that it is not working because addicts still can buy the stuff, distribution is out of control, jails are full, and the bad guys are making a killing. What's to like? The war on drugs is an UTTER FAILURE. Typical political solution, if it does not work do more of it until it does. Like body count in Vietnam.

We have a war on drugs thread. I don't want to drift that into this thread.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 24, 2017, 09:01:06 AM
Venezuela's Predominate Source of Revenue Could be in the Crosshairs

Washington has drawn a red line on Venezuela. If the government in Caracas moves forward with elections on July 30 to elect members of a Constitutional Assembly to rewrite the country's constitution, the Trump administration will likely implement some sort of sanctions against it. The effect those sanctions will have on the political confrontation between the government, opposition, and dissident members of the ruling party largely depends on their severity. Individual sanctions targeting Venezuelan politicians will likely have little effect. But if the United States implements sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil sector, it would have an immediate and drastic impact on the country, especially given that Venezuela depends on oil for virtually all its export revenue. If Venezuela's energy sector is sanctioned, it could rapidly reduce oil production because the state-run energy company PDVSA depends heavily on the U.S. market, as well as on U.S. companies for services and crude oil imports to blend with its own oil. Sanctions would, however, also lead to a sharp reduction in food imports, a wider migration of Venezuelans abroad and greater political instability in the country.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 27, 2017, 07:16:20 PM
The U.S. Department of State has ordered family members of government employees at the embassy in Caracas to leave Venezuela because of the worsening security situation, AFP reported July 27. The voluntary departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees has also been authorized. U.S. citizens are also advised to avoid traveling to Venezuela because of social unrest, violent crime, and pervasive food and medicine shortages.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 28, 2017, 02:56:05 AM
second post

Venezuela's political and economic crises may soon go from bad to drastically worse. Within weeks, the U.S. government could implement sanctions against Venezuela's vital oil sector to prevent the government in Caracas from formally starting down the path to a one-party state. In their most severe form, the sanctions would wreck Venezuela's ability to export oil to the United States by denying the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) access to the U.S. financial system. And U.S. companies would also be barred from doing business with the PDVSA. That would lead to a quick and steep drop in Venezuela's already declining oil production. In turn, imports would contract sharply and inflation would skyrocket, spurring the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans. But the United States could also resort to lesser sanctions limited to individuals in the Venezuelan government. Either way, the unrest in Venezuela will continue.
 
The government's approval of an assembly to rewrite the Venezuelan Constitution would immediately trigger heavy sanctions. The assembly election is set for July 30. But this is just the latest in a series of security solutions the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has used to try to hold on to political power amid rising discontent from citizens. In other moves, the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began in 2015 to expand the size of civilian paramilitary units (known colloquially as colectivos) controlled by the ruling party elite. The government also increased internal surveillance of midranking military officers, for fear that they could mobilize troops against the government. And Maduro also began planning for a new paramilitary force drawn from the ranks of party supporters — although this initiative has yet to materialize.
Long-Ranging Effects
The president and his allies are pushing for the constitutional rewrite to cement their hold on power. Amending the document could allow them to create a one-party state in which the ruling PSUV eliminates formal avenues for opposition dissent. According to a Stratfor source, the assembly originally had been intended as a way to delay the 2017 regional elections and 2018 presidential elections. Diosdado Cabello, a potent figure within the ruling party, saw the assembly process as a way to expand his political power. So what began as a makeshift solution to delay elections has now turned into a trigger for sanctions that would most likely push the PDVSA into financial default.
 
The assembly vote could also affect events outside Venezuela. If the drive for a constitutional assembly advances, Cuba could lose a key source of leverage it has over the United States. Heretofore, Havana has used its intelligence-gathering capabilities in Venezuela, as well as its influence with the Maduro government, as a way to shape talks with the Washington over lifting the U.S. embargo against Cuba. Cabello and his faction — who have opposed Cuban influence on the government — could try to use the assembly to expand their control over government offices while shutting Cuban supporters out of key positions. For their part, the Cubans are trying to place Maduro's wife, Cilia Flores, in a position to lead the constitutional assembly to keep them from being sidelined later. However, serious U.S. sanctions could threaten either Flores or Cabello's ability to control the country.
 
In Washington, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has at least two reasons to oppose the constitutional assembly. Politicians such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey who oppose the Cuban government (and, by extension, Venezuela's) have heavily lobbied for the administration to take a firmer stance against the measure. But the White House's opposition to the assembly likely rests on the long-term implications of a one-party Venezuelan state. Even if the constitution is changed, the opposition would continue its protests, and dissent within the armed forces could threaten to boil over into a coup attempt. Those developments could potentially prove to be bloody and spark a lengthy armed confrontation among different factions of the government. So in deciding on the oil sanctions, Washington likely would be weighing an authoritarian state against a bloody coup.
Many Avenues of Pressure
The Maduro government is facing pressure from too many parts of society to effectively defend itself. Domestic resistance in Venezuela is strong, and it is not motivated solely by the political opposition, which is generally ideologically opposed to the government. Since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, Venezuela's population has turned increasingly against the administration because of rising inflation and food shortages. Social unrest has been persistent and widespread over the past four months, even in areas where the opposition has traditionally held less sway. This unrest raises the possibility that neither Maduro nor a substitute from the ruling party could win the next presidential election.
 
The second source of pressure comes from former allies of the government, whether in the military or civilian sides of the party. These former supporters don't like the thought of losing power and have turned against the state. Individuals such as Attorney General Luisa Ortega form part of this front, which is pressing for a change of government.
 
The third source is the armed forces themselves. Some commanders have an interest in maintaining the status quo because they receive relatively high wages and profit from criminal activities, such as drug trafficking or gaming the country's currency controls. But the threat of action by the military is a crucial risk. A military rebellion would likely be motivated by the belief that regime change would help ease the immediate hardships faced by the people, whose resistance and dissatisfaction are only growing. Although Venezuela's armed forces are notoriously opaque, the government's concerns can be seen in its response to military dissent since the start of the year. Counterintelligence authorities have heavily monitored potential troublemakers and arrested more than 100 members of the military.
 
The United States is the fourth — and most important — source of pressure. Severe sanctions from the U.S. government represent an existential threat. Harsh measures by Washington could cause Venezuela's oil production, estimated by OPEC at about 2 million barrels per day, to decline, possibly by hundreds of thousands of bpd, denying the country vital oil export revenue. Washington is considering sanctions that would block Caracas' ability to process oil payments through the U.S. financial system and that would effectively end U.S. private sector cooperation with the PDVSA. Within a matter of months, these restrictions would cause significant cash-flow problems for the PDVSA and eat into the country's imports.
The Downward Spiral
As the sanctions kicked in, shipments to U.S. refiners, which amount to 750,000 bpd, would be rapidly disrupted, and Venezuela would have to find new buyers for its oil, leading to lasting damage. U.S. services businesses such as Halliburton Co. and Schlumberger Ltd. would pull out of Venezuela, and the government would have to quickly find substitutes to prevent a sharper production decline in the long run. U.S. refiners would cease exports of fuel, as well as the oil that Venezuela blends with its own crude for refining. And the PDVSA would have to try to sell oil that was bound for U.S. refiners at a discount elsewhere, further cutting its revenue. With less oil revenue, food imports would drop sharply and prices would spike, possibly driving millions of Venezuelans to abandon the country. The refugees would arrive first in Brazil, Colombia and the Caribbean islands near the Venezuelan coast, such as Trinidad and Tobago. And with the long-term decline of the economy, Venezuelans could be pushed even farther away, with some resorting to traveling along smuggling routes through Colombia to eventually reach the United States.
 
For now, Maduro's government is committed to the constitutional assembly vote as its last line of defense. But if the government elites around him try to hold on despite an oil sanctions package, a major, violent confrontation between them and ruling party dissidents could follow. The constitutional assembly could also turn into a political dead end and lead government elites to the negotiating table with their foreign and domestic opponents under the threat of sanctions. And if Maduro gives in to U.S. pressure, the ruling party will likely fragment further between those who see the constitutional assembly as a safeguard and those who seek to coexist with the political opposition. But, in the end, it's not clear that the United States or the government's political opponents can reach a deal that satisfies the elites trying to hold on to power. What is clear is that U.S. sanctions could make Venezuelan politics take a turn for the worse.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2017, 10:15:33 AM
If Venezuela Were Stable
Aug 2, 2017

 
By Allison Fedirka
It’s easy to understand why the crisis is Venezuela gets more attention than it deserves. The country is spiraling out of control, and every time it appears to reach its tipping point, it spirals further downward, defying expectations on just how far it could sink before the crisis ended.

The most recent protests concern the vote over the constituent assembly, which would have the power to change the constitution, dismiss officials and dissolve institutions. These protest won’t be what makes or breaks the country – that honor belongs to the security forces. But the political, economic and social problems that plague Venezuela won’t continue in perpetuity. Few things in geopolitics do. The Soviet Union dissolved. China ascended. The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union.

The Venezuela crisis will pass too. A parallel government run by the political opposition is taking shape. Some countries are no longer recognizing the actions of President Nicolas Maduro. The Venezuelan economic model is unsustainable. Anti-government protests are unrelenting. Something has to give and, according to our 2017 forecast, it will be the Maduro government.

A Marginal Power

It wasn’t so long ago that Venezuela was stable, and its stability, along with ample oil reserves, made it wealthy. But even the richest country in South America is hamstrung by the fact that it is in South America, which is at best a marginal power in geopolitics.

No South American country can dominate the continent, but Venezuela is particularly ill-suited to do so. It has a population of just 31.5 million people. According to the World Bank, it has a gross domestic product of $371 billion – roughly 20 percent the size of South America’s largest economy, Brazil. Only about 25 percent of the country’s land is suitable for agriculture (the world average is roughly 36 percent). It has had to import food to sustain its population.
 
(click to enlarge)

But even under improved socio-economic conditions, Venezuela would struggle to reach greater heights, so broken is it by its own geography. The country can be divided into four main regions. In the northwest, a lowlands region surrounds an inlet of the Caribbean Sea, on which sits the city of Maracaibo, the heart of the Venezuelan oil industry. East of the lowlands is the northern coast, along which the tail end of the Andes Mountains runs to nearly the westernmost reaches of the country. The capital of Caracas is in this region. Central Venezuela is a thinly populated area known as the Llanos. It consists of flat plains through which the Orinoco River flows and was used primarily for ranching before oil was discovered there. Last, the Guiana Highlands in the south is marked by dense, tropical jungles.

The country’s geography discourages mass settlement in the central and southern regions, so the vast majority of Venezuelans live along the northern coast or in valleys within its mountain ranges. It creates areas along Venezuela’s borders that are difficult to pass through (with some exceptional points along the border with Colombia). And though the combination of these barriers has prevented instability from spilling over the borders, it would also prevent Caracas from projecting power throughout the region. Assuming that Venezuela does reclaim stability, it wouldn’t change the balance of power in South America.

Tempered Expectations

Nor would it change the balance of power in the Caribbean. The security of the Caribbean is a vital interest to the United States, which would be exposed to the south in the presence of a foreign power. At the turn of the 20th century, Venezuela played an important role in making sure that never happened.

This is why the U.S. sided with Venezuela in 1895 during a territorial dispute with the United Kingdom. Pursuant to the Monroe Doctrine, which discouraged foreign involvement in the Western Hemisphere, Washington funded a commission that would ultimately establish new borders and pressure the U.K. into accepting international arbitration that upheld them. This is also why the United States provided support when, in 1902, Venezuela was blockaded to force payments of debt it owed to Italy, Germany and the U.K. The United States dispatched a naval fleet to Venezuelan waters and convinced the Europeans to participate in an arbitration resolution hosted by Washington. At the time, this move was as much in Venezuela’s interests as it was in the United States’. The young, post-colonial nations all feared European attempts to regain their claims or influence over former colonies in the Americas. The U.S. could not allow a foreign power to have a foothold in a place like Venezuela. But the country is no longer as important to Caribbean security because the probability of its occupation by a foreign power is practically nonexistent and the U.S. has one of the most powerful navies in the world.

Venezuela’s major link to the global system is its oil, and even here it does not hold as much influence as it used to. Venezuela is a member of OPEC, but over the past few decades producers such as Russia and the United States have diminished the prestige OPEC membership once had. OPEC currently puts Venezuela’s proven crude oil reserves at 302.25 billion barrels. Its production levels, however, have steadily declined because of bad management, poorly maintained infrastructure and a political and economic environment that discourages investment. In 2009, Venezuela produced 3 million barrels of oil per day. Today, production is closer to 2.1 million barrels per day. Low oil prices have compounded the problem by lowering government revenue. Better management and heavier foreign investment in technologies that could extract Venezuelan oil more efficiently is never a bad thing, and it’s possible that the added revenue could help stabilize the country in the long term. But more immediately, it would not appreciably affect the global oil market, which has largely already factored in Venezuelan instability for the last couple of years.

Venezuela will not be in disarray forever. But given that geopolitics is the study of how nations behave, and how their behavior shapes the global dynamics of power, the study of Venezuela is a study in tempered expectations.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 02, 2017, 11:07:06 AM
If Venezuela Were Stable
Aug 2, 2017

By Allison Fedirka

Sorry, Crafty_Dog, Allison Fedirka is lame and should get her head out of her geopolitical hole.

Try this for size:

Why was Venezuela the most prosperous and stable country of Latin America during the 50s, 60s, and 70s?
5 Answers
Juan Pérez, Forty happy years in Venezuela - then 10 more around the world
Answered Aug 21, 2016
I’m glad you’ve asked this question!

For people under 40’s or whom never heard or read about Venezuela in the 50’s, 60’s or 70´s (or simply have just forgotten) it might difficult to imagine that Venezuela was on those years the BEST country to live in all South America - and even better than many European countries. You can see for example a spectacular photo reportage by American photographer Cornell Cappa from LIFE magazine in 1953 in Caracas - then known as “the capital of the opportunities in South America”: FOTOS | Así de hermosa era la Caracas de 1953 según LIFE.

(https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-05940a5a289e7dd54f9616d157b0deb1-c)

More, MUCH MORE, at  https://www.quora.com/Why-was-Venezuela-the-most-prosperous-and-stable-country-of-Latin-America-during-the-50s-60s-and-70s


I arrived in Venezuela in 1946 and I'm an eyewitness to much of this story. I even had a part to play in the nationalization of the Orinoco deepwater channel which was operated by US Steel. The story about Arturo Uslar Pietry is incomplete. Here is the rest of it:

August 6, 2006
Uslar Pietri, Venezuelan Democracy's Undertaker

Arturo Uslar Pietri was considered one of the leading Venezuelan intellectuals of the 20th century. He certainly was entertaining and educational on TV where he addressed his "invisible friends." He was also a failed politician who ran for president and lost badly. Carlos Andrés Perez (CAP) was of the opinion that, having failed to reach power via elections, Uslar Pietri was trying to reach a position of power through machination.

More at http://softwaretimes.com/files/uslar%20pietri,%20venezuelan%20d.html
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2017, 11:39:32 AM
Agree.

When I was at U of PA in the mid 70s there were many Venezuelans in Wharton going for MBAs etc. 

One couple and I drove down to Florida on spring break.  This was in the era of 55 Speed Limit.  On I-95 my friend got us pulled over by a big Florida trooper while doing 88.  Trooper was unhappy. 

My friend point to the I-95 sign and said "What is the problem?  I was only doing 88!"

Trooper explained that was the number for the road.

"Oh, so sorry.  I am from Venezuela and get confused by kilometers per hour and miles per hour."

This did not fly and the trooper went to take payment right there via credit card.  My friend thought he was asking for a bribe and began to haggle.

This was not well-received.

He paid the fine, but as the trooper helped push us out of the sand that was the shoulder, the rear tires sprayed sand all over the trooper.
Title: WSJ/O'Grady: The Guns of Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 07, 2017, 07:57:56 AM
The Guns of Venezuela
Castro is calling the shots in Caracas. Sanctions have to be aimed at him.
Cuban President Raúl Castro with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, March 5.
Cuban President Raúl Castro with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, March 5. Photo: carlos garcia rawlins/Reuters
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
Aug. 6, 2017 4:56 p.m. ET
183 COMMENTS

In a video posted on the internet Sunday morning, former Venezuelan National Guard captain Juan Caguaripano, along with some 20 others, announced an uprising against the government of Nicolás Maduro to restore constitutional order. The rebels reportedly appropriated some 120 rifles, ammunition and grenades from the armory at Fort Paramacay in Valencia, the capital of Carabobo state. There were unconfirmed claims of similar raids at several other military installations including in Táchira.

The Cuba-controlled military regime put tanks in the streets and unleashed a hunt for the fleeing soldiers. It claims it put down the rebellion and it instructed all television to broadcast only news of calm. But Venezuelans were stirred by the rebels’ message. There were reports of civilians gathering in the streets to sing the national anthem in support of the uprising.

Note to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson: Venezuelans want to throw off the yoke of Cuban repression. They need your help.

Unfortunately Mr. Tillerson so far seems to be taking the bad advice of his State Department “experts.”

The same bureaucrats, it should be noted, ran Barack Obama’s Latin America policy. Those years gave us a rapprochement with Havana that culminated with the 44th president doing “the wave” with Raúl Castro at a baseball game in 2016. Team Obama also pushed for Colombia’s surrender to the drug-trafficking terrorist group FARC in a so-called peace deal last year. And it supported “dialogue” last year to restore free, fair and transparent elections in Venezuela. The result, in every case, was disaster.

Any U.S.-led international strategy to liberate Venezuela must begin with the explicit recognition that Cuba is calling the shots in Caracas, and that Havana’s control of the oil nation is part of its wider regional strategy.

Slapping Mr. Maduro’s wrist with sanctions, as the Trump administration did last week, won’t change Castro’s behavior. He cares only about his cut-rate Venezuelan oil and his take of profits from drug trafficking. To affect things in Venezuela, the U.S. has to press Cuba.

Burning Cuban flags, when they can be had, is now practically a national pastime in Venezuela because Venezuelans understand the link between their suffering and Havana. The Castro infiltration began over a decade ago when Fidel sent thousands of Cuban agents, designated as teachers and medical personnel, to spread propaganda and establish communist cells in the barrios.

As I noted in this column last week, since 2005 Cuba has controlled Venezuela’s citizen-identification and passport offices, keeping files on every “enemy” of the state—a k a political opponents. The Venezuelan military and National Guard answer to Cuban generals. The Venezuelan armed forces are part of a giant drug-trafficking operation working with the FARC, which is the hemisphere’s largest cartel and also has longstanding ties to Cuba.

These are the tactical realities of the Cuba-Venezuela-Colombia nexus. The broader strategic threat to U.S. interests, including Cuba’s cozy relationship with Middle East terrorists, cannot be ignored.

Elisabeth Burgos is the Venezuelan ex-wife of the French Marxist Regis Debray. She was born in Valencia, joined the Castro cause as a young woman, and worked for its ideals on the South American continent.

Ms. Burgos eventually broke free of the intellectual bonds of communism and has lived in Paris for many years. In a recent telephone interview—posted on the Venezuelan website Prodavinci—she warned of the risks of the “Cuban project” for the region. “Wherever the Cubans have been, everything ends in tragedy,” she told Venezuelan journalist Hugo Prieto. “Surely we have no idea what forces we face,” Mr. Prieto observed—reflecting as a Venezuelan on the words of Ms. Burgos—because, as she said, there is “a lot of naiveté, a lot of ignorance, about the apparatus that has fallen on [Venezuelans]: Castroism.”

Cuban control of citizens is as important as control of the military. In Cuba this is the job of the Interior Ministry. For that level of control in Venezuela, Ms. Burgos said, Mr. Maduro must rely on an “elite of exceptional experts” Castro grooms at home.

Cuba, Ms. Burgos said, is not “simply a dictatorship.” For the regime it is a “historical political project” aiming for “the establishment of a Cuban-type regime throughout Latin America.” She noted that along with Venezuela the Cubans have taken Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, and are now going after Colombia. “The FARC, turned into a political party and with all the money of [the narcotics business], in an election can buy all the votes that it wants.”

Mr. Tillerson is forewarned. Castro won’t stop until someone stops him. To get results, any U.S.-led sanctions have to hit the resources that Havana relies on to maintain the repression.

Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Title: Stratfor: Is the Army beginning to turn?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 07, 2017, 04:46:16 PM
    By itself, the theft of arms from Fort Paramacay won't be the downfall of the Venezuelan government.
    The incident does indicate, however, that parts of the military could be turning against Maduro.
    The possibility of a coup isn't the only threat to the government. Steady military defiance could weaken it against the opposition and complicate its efforts to rewrite the constitution.
    But the Maduro government won't go down without a bitter fight.

Something big happened at Venezuela's Fort Paramacay military base early Aug. 6, but the only clear thing about the event is that it's significant. Piecing together information from the Venezuelan government and independent media reports, we can gather that around 5 a.m. local time a group of people entered Fort Paramacay in Valencia. It's unknown how the individuals gained access to the base, but according to government reports they made their way to the armory and stole more than 90 AK-103 rifles and four rocket-propelled grenades. Security forces responded, and two of the intruders were killed in a shootout. Eight people, whom the government accused of being involved, were presented to the press later the same day.

At first it was unclear whether the event actually took place or whether it was merely a government public relations stunt. (All initial reports came from the embattled, increasingly authoritarian administration of President Nicolas Maduro.) However, as the day wore on, it became clear that a theft did occur at Fort Paramacay, and the central question became: What does it mean?

The obvious threat at the top of Venezuelan security planners' minds is the possibility that the stolen weapons will be used against loyalist forces. But by itself this wouldn't be enough to truly threaten the government's hold on power. Widespread military disloyalty, however, would. It's unclear how the group got into the base, but government reports say a first lieutenant at the base colluded with the raiders. And if this means broader dissent within parts of the military, the Venezuelan government is in trouble.

It's a critical time for the Maduro government. Already-rough conditions in Venezuela are rapidly deteriorating even further. The government could soon default, the United States is mulling sanctions on the country's oil sector, and at current rates, inflation could reach 4,000 percent year on year by 2020. As inflation worsens, an increasing number of military members and their families will experience food shortages and economic difficulty. Higher-ranking officials in the armed forces are insulated from the economic crisis, but thousands of lower-ranking members and their families are not. This decline in their standard of living raises the risk that they might openly defy the government, which would undermine the its ability to rule without taking popular opinion or its political opponents into account.

And it couldn't be a worse time for the Venezuelan government. Maduro's loyalists are trying to plan a National Constituent Assembly meeting to rewrite the constitution in their favor and to delay elections — partly in the hope that oil prices will rise and provide the economy (and therefore the government) a needed boost. And the government is counting on the military's support. If enough members of the military become disillusioned, the possibility of a coup cannot be ruled out. However, that's not the only threat posed by a disloyal military. Instead of a sudden coup, groups of military dissenters lacking the ability to remove the government outright could begin a lengthy process of attrition, either through attacks or acts of defiance.

The Maduro government has shown that it intends to cling to power however it can, despite low approval ratings. But it has been able to do so this long only because of the military. Over the past year and a half, the government has successfully fended off an attempt to hold a recall referendum against the president and has virtually ignored the demands of the opposition-controlled congress. It has also pushed forward on a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution and effectively turn Venezuela into a one-party state. But without the support of the military, Maduro will be unable to make progress with the assembly without risking rebellion. Put simply: The Venezuelan government needs a critical mass of loyalty from the military to survive.

Still, even if members of the military turn on Maduro and his government, the government will not abandon the constituent assembly without a fight. Challenges from the military will be met with force by parts of the military that remain loyal. And if enough dissidents pit themselves against the government, there could be a prolonged and possibly violent standoff. It's important to recognize that military dissidents would not necessarily be guided by or aligned with the political opposition, and their disloyalty could create a tangle of politically motivated violence that would have to be unraveled before the country's substantial economic problems could even begin to be addressed.
Title: lots of oil
Post by: ccp on August 08, 2017, 01:18:39 PM
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/04/22/this-opec-country-has-the-largest-proven-oil-reser.aspx
Title: lots of oil
Post by: captainccs on August 13, 2017, 09:46:15 PM
About the "faja petrolifera del orinoco," the Washington Times quote is not very accurate:

Quote
Unlike light and sweet crude from Saudi Arabia, oil from Orinoco is tarlike. It is laced with metals and sits beneath deep jungles. Getting to the oil field means building roads, electrical-power grids and other major infrastructure. Once the oil is extracted from the ground, it is technically difficult to process.

It's not "deep jungles" but "tropical grassland plain."

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1nBSwM20iUwD9M_DpUJz-hfQUt_I&hl=en&ll=8.336279895769088%2C-64.87012262500002&z=7

Conventional oil has been produced for over 50 years north of the Orinoco belt between the towns of Anaco and El Tigre and shipped north to Puerto La Cruz by pipeline for processing and export. The additional challenges of the Orinoco belt are extraction and processing, not access.

Quote
Los Llanos in Venezuela

Los Llanos (Spanish pronunciation: [ˈʎanos], locally [ˈʝanos], "The Plains") is a vast tropical grassland plain situated to the east of the Andes in Colombia and Venezuela, in northwestern South America. It is an ecoregion of the flooded grasslands and savannas biome.

The Llanos' main river is the Orinoco, which forms part of the border between Colombia and Venezuela and is the major river system of Venezuela.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Llanos_(South_America)
Title: Venezuela’s PDVSA Profit Disappears
Post by: captainccs on August 13, 2017, 09:51:25 PM
Venezuela’s PDVSA Profit Disappears as Oil Output Drops Amidst Chaos

Six weeks past the deadline and late on a Friday night, Venezuela's state oil company releases devastatingly bad financial results

By Vanessa Dezem in Sao Paulo
& Michelle F. Davis in Mexico City

Profit at state oil giant Petroleos de Venezuela SA plummeted almost 90 percent last year amid declining output and a drop in oil prices, a new blow for a country rocked by political and economic chaos.

Net income declined 88.7 percent to $828 million in 2016 as production fell 10 percent to 2.57 million barrels per day, according to PDVSA’s annual financial statement published on its website. Average oil prices in Venezuela declined to $35.15 per barrel from about $45 per barrel in 2015.

Venezuela and PDVSA are under intense scrutiny from investors as U.S. sanctions against key government officials and a power grab by President Nicolas Maduro threaten to disrupt financial flows. Prices for government and PDVSA bonds have tumbled in recent weeks amid concerns that Maduro’s actions will trigger more severe measures against the oil-producing nation that may choke off its ability to repay debt.

The profit slump was "quite a dramatic fall," said Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets. “PDVSA was the golden goose of Venezuela and what these financials tell us is that these guys are killing it."

Petroleos de Venezuela SA’s $1.1 billion of dollar-denominated bonds that mature in November of this year fell 1.1 percent to 86.8 cents on the dollar Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Press representatives for PDVSA didn’t immediately respond to a phone call and email seeking comment outside of normal business hours.

Oil Prices

PDVSA was obligated under rules for its bonds due in 2020 to provide audited financial reports for last year by the end of June, but asked bond investors for a temporary waiver from the requirements until Aug. 11.

PDVSA’s exports slumped 9.7 percent to 2.2 million barrels per day. Maduro’s regime has set a $3.2 billion plan to boost output by 250,000 barrels a day within 30 months.

Faced with persistently low oil prices, Venezuela -- which has the world’s largest reserves and depends on crude sales for 95 percent of its export revenue -- has been plagued with shortages of everything from toilet paper to antibiotics and food. With the government running out of money to pay for imports and interest payments on foreign debt, it has turned, in part, to asset sales to raise whatever cash it can.

The nation is also dealing with increasing tensions with the U.S, which has imposed a series of sanctions on people associated with Maduro, freezing their assets in the U.S. and blocking anyone in the U.S. from doing business with them. On Friday, Trump said he’s considering a military option in response to the political and economic crisis in Venezuela.

The latest numbers give bondholders more clarity on the gravity of the state oil company’s financial situation. PDVSA has $3.2 billion in bond principal and interest payments due for the rest of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

PDVSA may struggle to cover that, Dallen said. “They’re going to have to either borrow more money from the Russians or the Chinese or sell assets." Bloomberg

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2441695&CategoryId=10718
Title: Armed Venezuelan soldiers caught in Guyana begging for food
Post by: captainccs on August 16, 2017, 06:18:59 PM
Armed Venezuelan soldiers caught in Guyana begging for food
BY JIM WYSS
jwyss@miamiherald.com
AUGUST 15, 2017 3:31 PM

BOGOTA, COLOMBIA
A handful of Venezuelan soldiers — armed and in uniform — were caught in neighboring Guyana last week begging for food, local police reported, another sign of Venezuela’s deepening hunger crisis.

Guyanese Police Inspector Christopher Humphrey said he’d gone to the border along the Amacuro river, which divides the two nations, to investigate reports that the Venezuelan military was stealing food from locals. But the three soldiers he encountered — two carrying military assault rifles — said they had come to beg for meals and hadn’t harmed anyone.

Humphrey said the men had crossed into Guyana on a wooden raft and seemed genuinely hungry.

“They were desperate,” he told the Miami Herald. “They were here for some time and they showed me a can of sardines and the place where they had cooked it over a fire.”

Hunger is on the rise in Venezuela, amid triple-digit inflation and the government’s inability to import basic goods. And neighboring Colombia, Brazil and Guyana have seen a spike in Venezuelans looking for food.

Venezuela’s armed forces — which are key to propping up the Nicolás Maduro administration — have always been perceived to have easier access to basic goods. Lately, though, there have been growing but uncorroborated reports of soldiers going hungry, particularly at far-flung border outposts.

Venezuela’s military is under intense scrutiny for signs that its support for Maduro might be eroding. In July, a rogue police inspector lobbed grenades onto the Supreme Court from a helicopter, which did not result in injuries.

And on Aug. 6, former National Guard Capt. Juan Caguaripano announced he was launching a military revolt named “Operation David” to “rescue the country from total destruction.” A week later, authorities said they had detained him and other “ringleaders.”

That soldiers would cross into Guyana is telling. The two nations have been locked in a centuries-old border dispute over a swath of Guyanese territory known as the Esequibo and are not on good terms. In 2015, as tensions escalated, Venezuela sent troops and antiaircraft missiles to the border.

Humphrey said he thinks the men learned that they can’t count on crossing the border for food.

“But that doesn’t mean some other set [of soldiers] won’t come back,” he said.

FOLLOW JIM WYSS ON TWITTER @JIMWYSS

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article167335697.html

Title: US Court Throws Out Venezuela's Diosdado Cabello Lawsuit Against WSJ
Post by: captainccs on August 16, 2017, 06:26:09 PM
BREAKING: US Court Throws Out Venezuela's Diosdado Cabello Lawsuit Against Wall Street Journal

NEW YORK -- A Federal Judge in Manhattan has dismissed a libel lawsuit brought by Venezuela political leader Diosdado Cabello against the Wall Street Journal.

Cabello, a Venezuela political leader and former military leader, is one of the most powerful politicians in Venezuela. He has served as Vice President, President of the country's parliament as well as in a variety of other positions. Cabello participated with Hugo Chavez in the failed coup d'état of February 1992, leading four tanks to attack Miraflores, the Presidential Palace. He was jailed for two years before being released after President Rafael Caldera pardoned him.

"Cabello alleges that Dow Jones published a defamatory article in the Wall Street Journal entitled "Venezuelan Officials Suspected of Turning Country into Global Cocaine Hub," wrote U.S. Federal District Court Judge Katherine B. Forrest, dismissing the suit. "For the reasons set forth below, Cabello has failed to adequately plead material falsity as to most challenged statements and actual malice as to all challenged statements."

"Plaintiff has failed to make out a prima facie case of libel and his second amended complaint is therefore DISMISSED. The Clerk of Court is directed to close the motion ... terminate this action," concluded Forrest.


The Wall Street Journal "caused, and continues to cause, enormous damage to Mr. Cabello's reputation and good name, both personally and in his capacity as a key member of Venezuela's National Assembly," the suit filed in May 2016 alleged, adding that Cabello suffered "substantial economic damages" as a result of the article's publication.

The story was part of an attack by "North American imperialism" against Venezuela, Cabello claimed.

Cabello's lawsuit claimed that he was a "devout husband and father of four," a "distinguished Venezuelan politician," and "high-ranking member of the military."


Earlier this week, after journalists began noticing increased security personnel around U.S. Senator Marco Rubio over the last month, The Miami Herald reported that law enforcement had intelligence indicating that Cabello had allegedly initiated an assassination plot against Rubio.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=2441851&CategoryId=10717

Title: Prohibited Imports
Post by: captainccs on August 20, 2017, 04:56:52 PM
I need your help. Please report the list below to blogs and the news outlets to let the world know how cruel and absurd the Maduro regime really is:

Prohibited Imports

Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof wests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projetiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc.

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don't have an issue with the riot police, I'm CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service. It would be wonderful if you made it available to blogs and the American press.

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)

Carriers have to make sure these items are not shipped in, NO EXCEPTIONS.

This is an abuse of human rights!

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Re: Prohibited Imports
Post by: G M on August 20, 2017, 05:19:04 PM
Well, Doug has published things on a blog with national viewership.



I need your help. Please report the list below to blogs and the news outlets to let the world know how cruel and absurd the Maduro regime really is:

Prohibited Imports

Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof wests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projetiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc.

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don't have an issue with the riot police, I'm CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service. It would be wonderful if you made it available to blogs and the American press.

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)

Carriers have to make sure these items are not shipped in, NO EXCEPTIONS.

This is an abuse of human rights!

Denny Schlesinger
 

Title: Re: Prohibited Imports
Post by: captainccs on August 20, 2017, 05:34:46 PM
Well, Doug has published things on a blog with national viewership.

That would be great, thanks!
Title: Re: Prohibited Imports
Post by: G M on August 20, 2017, 05:38:24 PM
Doug? Now that I have volunteered you...   :-D


Well, Doug has published things on a blog with national viewership.

That would be great, thanks!
Title: Prohibited Imports in Venezuela, August 21, 2017
Post by: DougMacG on August 20, 2017, 09:09:02 PM
Thank you.  I will do my best to get this published and circulated.  Will link and keep you informed.  Secondly, please let us know by private message what we can send under what labeling to you.
-------------------------------------------------
Prohibited Imports in Venezuela, August 21, 2017, from verified, local, first-hand source:

"(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof wests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projetiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc.

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don't have an issue with the riot police, I'm CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service. It would be wonderful if you made it available to blogs and the American press."

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)

Carriers have to make sure these items are not shipped in, NO EXCEPTIONS.

This is an abuse of human rights!
Title: Re: Prohibited Imports in Venezuela, August 21, 2017
Post by: DougMacG on August 20, 2017, 09:50:34 PM
Thank you.  I will do my best to get this published and circulated.  Will link and keep you informed.  Secondly, please let us know by private message what we can send under what labeling to you.
-------------------------------------------------
Prohibited Imports in Venezuela, August 21, 2017, from verified, local, first-hand source:

"(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof wests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projetiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc.

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don't have an issue with the riot police, I'm CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service. It would be wonderful if you made it available to blogs and the American press."

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png)

Carriers have to make sure these items are not shipped in, NO EXCEPTIONS.

This is an abuse of human rights!


Can someone please try to convert the image to text.  I would like to translate the list to English for distribution in the US.
Title: Looks like there has already been media coverage on this
Post by: G M on August 21, 2017, 06:53:20 AM
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/medicines-supplies-grounded-u-s-after-venezuela-tags-them-war-n767346

Medicines, Supplies Grounded in U.S. After Venezuela Tags Them ‘War Material’
by CARMEN SESIN

MIAMI — After four years of sending monthly shipments of medicine and food for hospitals and needy people in Venezuela, Move Org, a non-profit based in Miami, abruptly stopped three weeks ago.

"We stopped because we are seeing that boxes and containers are being opened and searched in Venezuela. We don't want problems," said Hilda Marina Alcalá, the Florida vice-president of the non-profit.

Move Org had been sending up to five to seven pallets of donations monthly to help alleviate the burden that the economic and political crisis gripping the South American nation has had on its people.
Title: Re: Prohibited Imports in Venezuela, August 21, 2017
Post by: DougMacG on August 21, 2017, 08:51:22 AM
I reached Pat at Spartareport.com and he is putting it together for story to publish tomorrow.  Once published, I will see how many other blogs and sites we can get to point to it.

I think it would still help to get this image converted (OCR) to a readable and translatable text, but my computer has been unable to do that.  http://softwaretimes.com/pics/prohibited-items.png
Title: I think this was everything
Post by: G M on August 21, 2017, 09:30:22 AM
Estimado Cliente MBE:
Debido a las nuevas regulaciones aduaneras en nuestro país, queda terminantemente prohibida la importación de los siguientes productos. Esta restricción es obligatoria, sin excepción.

ARTÍCULOS PROHIBIDOS
-   Máscaras antigás
-   Chalecos de protección antibalas
-   Pistolas de aire, de balines,
de pintura y municiones relacionadas con este tipo de artículos
-   Resorteras de cualquier tipo
-   Gas pimienta
-   Porta gas pimienta
-   Pistolas eléctricas paralizantes (pistolas de electroshock)
-   Bolas de metal
-   Metras
-   Artículos que contengan gas/aire comprimido
-   Cuchillos de cualquier tipo (incluye machetes y hachas)
-   Garrotes de policía
-   Artículos deportivos de protección
-   Artículos de camuflaje
-   Cascos de cualquier tipo
-   Protectores de tórax


-   Bates y pelotas de baseball
-   Máscaras
-   Protectores faciales
-   Rodilleras
-   Coderas
-   Plomos de pesca
-   Arcos y flechas
-   Lentes de seguridad
-   Globos inflables
-   Productos de
PRIMEROS AUXILIOS
-Antiácidos
-   Gasas
-   Cremas para Quemaduras
-   Vendas
-   Colirios
-   Bicarbonato -ETC
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 21, 2017, 09:55:10 AM
Thanks GM.

From Google translate:

Dear Customer:
Due to the new customs regulations in our country, the importation of the following products is strictly prohibited. This restriction is mandatory, without exception.

PROHIBITED ARTICLES
- Gas masks
- Bulletproof vests
- Air guns, ball guns, of paint and ammunition
related to this type of articles
- Sling shot of any type     
- Pepper spray
- Pepper gas holder
- Paralyzing electric pistols (electroshock guns)
- Metal balls
- Meters, guages
- Articles containing gas / compressed air
- Knives of all kinds (including machetes and axes)
- Police clubs
- Protective sports goods
- Camouflage articles
- Helmets of any type
- Chest protectors
- Bats and baseballs
- Masks
- Facial Protectors
- Kneepads
- Elbow pads
- Fishing leads
- Bows and arrows
- Safety glasses
- Inflatable balloons

Products of FIRST AID
- Antacids
- Gauze
- Creams for Burns
- Salts
- Eye Drops
- Bicarbonates
- Etc.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 21, 2017, 11:37:38 AM
Quote
Secondly, please let us know by private message what we can send under what labeling to you.

DougMacG

Thanks but shipments are searched twice, once by the shipper in the USA so they don't get into trouble with the law and by the authorities when it arrives. The stuff would be confiscated. "Legal" stuff I usually order from Amazon.

Thanks for all the help. Public opinion needs to be turned against Maduro after it was turned in favor of Chavez by American fellow travelers

Quote
Fellow traveler
One who supports the aims or philosophies of a political group without joining it. A “fellow traveler” is usually one who sympathizes with communist doctrines but is not a member of the Communist party. The term was used disparagingly in the 1950s to describe people accused of being communists.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/fellow-traveler
Title: Remember all those left-wing pundits who drooled over Venezuela?
Post by: G M on August 21, 2017, 11:57:16 AM
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-kirchick-venezuela-pundits-20170802-story.html

Remember all those left-wing pundits who drooled over Venezuela?
 
The majority of Venezuelans oppose the assembly and the new charter it will draft, fearing it will give Maduro dictatorial powers.
James Kirchick
“Pundits should have fixed terms,” left-wing author Naomi Klein recently told the BBC. Awarded “jobs for life,” most professional commentators — whether opining in newspaper columns like this one or blathering on television — suffer no consequence for making predictions that turn out “spectacularly wrong.” Klein’s (partly tongue-in-cheek) solution? Hold our pundits to account by making them reapply for their sinecures every four years, banishing those whose prognostications prove most wide of the mark.

The socialist Klein’s embrace of market forces, however selective, is welcome. Might I offer the unfolding horror in Venezuela as the first litmus test of her proposal?

On Sunday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in a referendum designed to rewrite the country’s constitution and confer on him dictatorial powers. The sham vote, boycotted by the opposition, was but the latest stage in the “Bolivarian Revolution” launched by Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez. First elected in 1998 on a wave of popular goodwill, Chavez’s legacy is one of utter devastation.

Thanks to Chavismo’s vast social welfare schemes (initially buoyed by high oil prices), cronyism and corruption, a country that once boasted massive budget surpluses is today the world’s most indebted. Contraction in per capita GDP is so severe that “Venezuela’s economic catastrophe dwarfs any in the history of the U.S., Western Europe or the rest of Latin America” according to Ricardo Hausmann, former chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank. Transparency International lists Venezuela as the only country in the Americas among the world’s 10 most corrupt.

Left-wing economic populists are enjoying a resurgence in mainstream credibility by railing against free trade and “neoliberals.” This is a scandal.
Socialist economic policies — price controls, factory nationalizations, government takeovers of food distribution and the like — have real human costs. Eighty percent of Venezuelan bakeries don’t have flour. Eleven percent of children under 5 are malnourished, infant mortality has increased by 30% and maternal mortality is up 66%. The Maduro regime has met protests against its misrule with violence. More than 100 people have died in anti-government demonstrations and thousands have been arrested. Loyal police officers are rewarded with rolls of toilet paper.

The list of Western leftists who once sang the Venezuelan government’s praises is long, and Naomi Klein figures near the top.

In 2004, she signed a petition headlined, “We would vote for Hugo Chavez.” Three years later, she lauded Venezuela as a place where “citizens had renewed their faith in the power of democracy to improve their lives.” In her 2007 book, “The Shock Doctrine,” she portrayed capitalism as a sort of global conspiracy that instigates financial crises and exploits poor countries in the wake of natural disasters. But Klein declared that Venezuela had been rendered immune to the “shocks” administered by free market fundamentalists thanks to Chavez’s “21st Century Socialism,” which had created “a zone of relative economic calm and predictability.”


Chavez’s untimely death from cancer in 2013 saw an outpouring of grief from the global left. The caudillo “demonstrated that it is possible to resist the neo-liberal dogma that holds sway over much of humanity,” wrote British journalist Owen Jones. “I mourn a great hero to the majority of his people,” said Oliver Stone, who would go on to replace Chavez with Vladimir Putin as the object of his twisted affection.

On the Venezuelan regime’s international propaganda channel, Telesur, American host Abby Martin — who used to ply her duplicitous trade at Russia Today — takes credulous viewers on Potemkin tours of supermarkets fully stocked with goods. It would be inaccurate to label the thoroughly unconvincing Martin, who combines the journalistic ethics of Walter Duranty with the charm of Ulrike Meinhof, a useful idiot. She's just an idiot.


Most of Chavismo’s earlier adherents have maintained a conspicuous silence in the face of the Venezuelan calamity. Those who do speak up, rather than apologize for getting things so wrong, blame collapsing oil prices for the country’s fate. Yet the decline in the value of petroleum has not led to rioting on the streets of Oslo. The tragedy of Venezuela is the predictable result of what happens when a strongman wages, in Chavez’s own words, “economic war on the bourgeoisie owners,” cracks down on media, prints money with reckless abandon and implements all manner of harebrained socialist schemes.

In the age of Trump, Brexit and a wider backlash against globalization, left-wing economic populists are enjoying a resurgence in mainstream credibility by railing against free trade and “neoliberals.” This is a scandal. For in the form of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the world has a petri dish in which to judge the sort of policies endorsed by Jones, Klein, British Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, homegrown socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders and countless other deluded utopians.

There, the ghastly failures of their ideas are playing out for everyone to see; a real-time rebuke, as if another were needed, to socialism. That these people are considered authorities on anything other than purchasing Birkenstocks, much less running a country, is absurd.

So yes, let’s put term limits on pundits. And let’s start with anyone who praised the Venezuelan model.

James Kirchick is filling in for Doyle McManus. He is a visiting fellow with the Brookings Institution and author of “The End of Europe: Dictators, Demagogues and the Coming Dark Age.” Follow him on Twitter @jkirchick.
Title: Stossel on Hugo's useful idiots
Post by: G M on August 21, 2017, 12:04:20 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHTe2Pn7ACg

But, but, Chomsky has CREDENTIALS!
Title: Re: Venezuela and The Left, Coercive 'Paternalism' vs freedom with inequality
Post by: DougMacG on August 21, 2017, 02:57:48 PM
On the right, what went wrong in Venezuela is a stupid question, too obvious for words.   On the left, it is the missing question.

(As just noted), Chavez was the hero of the American (US) left.  Some were explicit; others just argued we should implement all the same policies here.

A year ago I asked my closest then-leftist confidant the question? 

If socialism is so great, how do you explain what is happening in Venezuela?

For background, I even included the following background information: 
abandoned socialism and started to implement economic reforms. In 2013, Chile was the world’s 10th freest economy. Venezuela, in the meantime, declined from being the world’s 10th freest economy in 1975 to being the world’s least free economy in 2013
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1307.msg98285#msg98285

She answered with the best explanation possible:  Maybe they (the socialists) went too far.
I agree and would add at least two exclamation points, They went too far!!

Coercive Paternalism versus Income Inequality

No one on the right supports zero public sector or zero safety net, but we want to limit the powers of government and enlarge the liberties of the individual.  In a freer, market-based economy, income inequality is a fact - a feature, not a bug.  Some people make more money than others.  Some work harder, smarter, longer hours or more than one job chasing a dream.  Some keep making more and more over the working lifetime as they get smarter, more experienced and have more invested. Others hang out on discussion boards...  The fruit of our labor is one reason why labor gets done, goods produced and services provided.  The fruit of our investment, too.  Without fruit of your labor, goods don't get produced and services don't get provided.  It's not rocket science but we keep steering away from what is known to work best.

Coercive Paternalism is the ideal of The Left.  http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2013/03/07/its-your-own-good/  I kid you not! You don't want or need free choice when 'smart-planners' can do that for you and do it better.  http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1518.msg71031#msg71031 

But you don't get to equality without coercion. Big powerful government is a feature not a bug in real world socialism.

In Venezuela, they pursued the policies and dreams of the American Left.  We should thank them and pay them for their experiment.  They took from the rich and they gave to the people, well actually the government, on behalf of the people (actually the government).  But private sector capitalism requires private sector capital and they chased it away.  Ironically, Public sector investment also requires a vibrant private sector to support it - and they chased it away.  It's a fact, not a cliche, that eventually you run out of other people's money [Margaret Thatcher].

Among the endless ironies of the left is that as you pursue equality and grow poorer, inequality worsens anyway.  Compare Chavez' daughter with median income or see President Obama's record in the US.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/10/iron-fisted-socialism-benefited-hugo-chavezs-daughter-to-the-tune-of-billions-reports-say/
http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=AD783798-ED07-E8C2-4405996B5B02A32E
https://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/26/during-obamas-presidency-wealth-inequality-has-increased-and-poverty-levels-are-higher/

Who knew?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 21, 2017, 04:09:15 PM
"Our" article is up on Sparta Report.  Now make it go VIRAL...

https://www.spartareport.com/2017/08/venezuela-banning-imports-products-used-opposition/
https://www.spartareport.com/

Venezuela Banning Imports Of Products That Could Be Used By Opposition

Maduro increasing his control of Venezuela
COMMENTARY
By Patrick Pulatie  Last updated 5:44 PM Aug 21, 2017 

With the Charlottesville riots, the Barcelona terror attack, and the relentlessness of the media challenging President Trump, the Venezuela situation has faded into the background. But Venezuela remains the tinder box that it has been for many years.

President Nicolas Maduro continues to put the clamps on the opposition party and the people of Venezuela. His current efforts involve preventing the opposition from obtaining the resources needed to prevent an uprising of the people.  He has done this by imposing strict new import restrictions. Here is a message from a source in Venezuela.

Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof vests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projectiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don’t have an issue with the riot police, I’m CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service (of banned items.)
Dear Customer:
 
Due to the new customs regulations in our country, the importation of the following products is strictly prohibited. This restriction is mandatory, without exception.

PROHIBITED ARTICLES

– Gas masks

– Bulletproof vests

– Air guns, ball guns, of paint and ammunition related to this type of article

– Sling shot of any type

– Pepper spray

– Pepper gas holder

– Paralyzing electric pistols (electroshock guns)

– Metal balls

– Meters, gauges

– Articles containing gas / compressed air

– Knives of all kinds (including machetes and axes)

– Police clubs

– Protective sports goods

– Camouflage articles

– Helmets of any type

– Chest protectors

– Bats and baseballs

– Masks

– Facial Protectors

– Kneepads

– Elbow pads

– Fishing leads

– Bows and arrows

– Safety glasses

– Inflatable balloons

 FIRST AID PRODUCTS

– Antacids

– Gauze

– Creams for Burns

– Salts

– Eye Drops

– Bicarbonates

– Etc.

Medical supplies are tagged as “war materials”
The crackdown on imports that could be used by the people to defend against the Maduro regime only serves strengthen the control of the government over the people. Where it ends is unknown right now, but it does not look good for the people.

 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 21, 2017, 04:28:54 PM
If only this were somehow Trump's fault, the MSM would be all over this....


"Our" article is up on Sparta Report.  Now make it go VIRAL...

https://www.spartareport.com/2017/08/venezuela-banning-imports-products-used-opposition/
https://www.spartareport.com/

Venezuela Banning Imports Of Products That Could Be Used By Opposition

Maduro increasing his control of Venezuela
COMMENTARY
By Patrick Pulatie  Last updated 5:44 PM Aug 21, 2017 

With the Charlottesville riots, the Barcelona terror attack, and the relentlessness of the media challenging President Trump, the Venezuela situation has faded into the background. But Venezuela remains the tinder box that it has been for many years.

President Nicolas Maduro continues to put the clamps on the opposition party and the people of Venezuela. His current efforts involve preventing the opposition from obtaining the resources needed to prevent an uprising of the people.  He has done this by imposing strict new import restrictions. Here is a message from a source in Venezuela.

Now under Maduro we have a new prohibition, importing anything that protects against riot police such as gas masks, bullet proof vests, metal balls and marbles (could be used as projectiles), knives, sports padding gear, helmets, etc

But it goes even further: Banned first aid stuff:

Antacids, gauze, cream to treat burns, bandages, eye drops, bicarbonate, etc.

I asked a drug importer to bring me milk of magnesia. Sorry, antacid, banned article! I don’t have an issue with the riot police, I’m CONSTIPATED. Tough! Eat prunes.

Here is the list from my courier service (of banned items.)
Dear Customer:
 
Due to the new customs regulations in our country, the importation of the following products is strictly prohibited. This restriction is mandatory, without exception.

PROHIBITED ARTICLES

– Gas masks

– Bulletproof vests

– Air guns, ball guns, of paint and ammunition related to this type of article

– Sling shot of any type

– Pepper spray

– Pepper gas holder

– Paralyzing electric pistols (electroshock guns)

– Metal balls

– Meters, gauges

– Articles containing gas / compressed air

– Knives of all kinds (including machetes and axes)

– Police clubs

– Protective sports goods

– Camouflage articles

– Helmets of any type

– Chest protectors

– Bats and baseballs

– Masks

– Facial Protectors

– Kneepads

– Elbow pads

– Fishing leads

– Bows and arrows

– Safety glasses

– Inflatable balloons

 FIRST AID PRODUCTS

– Antacids

– Gauze

– Creams for Burns

– Salts

– Eye Drops

– Bicarbonates

– Etc.

Medical supplies are tagged as “war materials”
The crackdown on imports that could be used by the people to defend against the Maduro regime only serves strengthen the control of the government over the people. Where it ends is unknown right now, but it does not look good for the people.

 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 21, 2017, 05:37:31 PM
Posted to Twitter and The Motley Fool.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 21, 2017, 09:14:55 PM
Posted to Twitter and The Motley Fool.

I posted it on Free Republic:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3579489/posts

And I sent it to Powerlineblog, Steven Hayward, and Wall Street Journal, Best of the Web.
Title: Venezuela totally kicking ass on income inequality!
Post by: G M on August 22, 2017, 10:46:47 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5KUadzyV9A

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5KUadzyV9A [/youtube]

This is why you never give up your guns.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 23, 2017, 04:51:56 AM
Quote
#Invalid YouTube Link#

Why invalid link? It worked or me.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 23, 2017, 07:29:23 AM
Invalid link just means the embed video tool doesn't work anymore with youtube. Must click on the link.

Income equality is first level thinking, right out of our schools and colleges.  The Venezuela experiment proves it is the wrong approach.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 23, 2017, 08:33:46 AM
Invalid link just means the embed video tool doesn't work anymore with youtube. Must click on the link.

Income equality is first level thinking, right out of our schools and colleges.  The Venezuela experiment proves it is the wrong approach.

And yet the obvious failure doesn't deter them or cause them to rethink their position.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 23, 2017, 05:34:36 PM
Where did Ami Horowitz pick up the idea that in Venezuela we have income equality? Not true.

Income equality is not an economic issue but a morality/policy issue. Left to its devices wealth distribution follows a power law distribution which is what creates the 80-20 and the 99-1 distribution of wealth. Just as the young people interviewed by Horowitz have no clue about it neither do most investors. The Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model uses the normal distribution when it should be using a power law distribution. These guys were Ph.D.s.

I didn't get it either until quite recently because it is not intuitive, we are familiar with normal distributions but not with power law distribution although much in nature follows power law distribution, earthquakes, for example: many little one and a few large killer ones.

An easy to replicate economic experiment is to watch people play poker. Start the game with the same kitty for each player. Play long enough and there will be one winner and all others will be losers. Try this game:

http://softwaretimes.com/pareto.php

In the stock market people are convinced that fund managers are clueless since 75% of them underperform the market indexes. They are not clueless, the systemic nature of the stock market is to follow a power law distribution. I wrote an article about it:

Quote
February 20, 2011
Why Does the Average Mutual Fund Underperform?

It has often been stated that the average mutual fund underperforms the market but I have never seen an adequate explanation. I used to believe in a simplistic reason: Since mutual funds make up the average, if you deduct their management fees, their results will be that amount below the average. While this holds true, it is not the real reason. For an explanation we have to look at the Pareto Distribution of wealth.

https://softwaretimes.com/files/why+does+the+average+mutua.html

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on August 23, 2017, 06:16:44 PM
The point of my last post is that you don't need to take a political right/left position with respect to the economy. It has its way of doing things and we can bend it a bit (right or left) but bend it too far and we break it.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 23, 2017, 09:25:25 PM
quote author=captainccs:
"Where did Ami Horowitz pick up the idea that in Venezuela we have income equality? Not true."

Socialism (in the US at least) is sold as the promise of greater equality - at the expense of all other things, like keeping the fruits of your own labor and investment, having a positive incentive-based economy or rising the tide that lifts all boats.  They screw up everything else and then fail to make gains on equality as well.



Title: You saw it here first...
Post by: G M on August 26, 2017, 11:30:42 AM
http://www.dailywire.com/news/20027/watch-woke-millennials-say-theyd-prefer-venezuelas-james-barrett#

WATCH: 'Woke' Millennials Hilariously Say They'd Prefer Venezuela's Food Lines Over America's Income Inequality
Venezuela's "a lot like the rest of the world, which is a lot more dignified than us."
Screenshot: Ami Horowitz

ByJAMES BARRETT August 21, 2017  209.1k views
In a new video, Ami Horowitz hits the streets to find out what’s rattling around in the younger generation’s collective mind on the hot button millennial topics of income inequality and socialism — particularly, the socialist utopia Venezuela, which is experiencing economic collapse, prompting crisis-level food shortages and the eruption of violence on the streets.

Horowitz ended up finding what anyone paying any attention to the Democratic presidential primary last year will not be surprised to learn: the generation which adores “Democratic socialist” Bernie Sanders hates income inequality so much that they’d be glad to stand in Venezuelan-style food lines so others could have as little as them.


Horowitz begins with the general question of "how important is income equality for you?"

"It’s extremely important," says one girl.

"Pretty important — I work for the working families," says a guy with a beard and a bandana.

"100%. I think that it’s really important and something that has to be taken care of," says another young lady.

"It’s really important, of course," says one young social-minded woman, who’s almost insulted by the question. "Right, it seems like a trick question," her friend adds.

One millennial guy in glasses waxes poetical on the issue: "Income inequality is definitely one of those issues from which everything else sort of stems off of. ... Other issues will perpetuate it — when you want to talk about climate change, and that sort of thing ..."

Horowitz then asks the interviewees, all of whom no doubt are "still feeling the Bern," if they think that we should model ourselves on another country that promises "income equality": Venezuela, which, he explains, is in the midst of an economic death spiral to the point where it is experiencing dire food shortages and frequent violence between citizens and police forces. Despite the hellish reality of Venezuela’s failed socialist state, all of his interviewees still thought Venezuela’s day-long food lines would be preferable to the United States’ selfish, "undignified" capitalistic system.


“Even though there’s some downside, there’s some violence there and some food lines," Horowitz says to bandana guy, "but still everyone has to do the same thing — they wait in line equally."

Though the young man appears to be quite knowledgeable about Venezuela, nodding and agreeing with Horowitz' description of its crisis situation, he still agrees with Horowitz that it’s better to "wait in line equally."

"That is, I think, a fair system," says Horowitz.

"I agree," says bandana guy emphatically.

Interviewee after interviewee agrees that modeling ourselves after Venezuela is a great idea because America is just too unfair and "undignified."

"If you gotta wait in line for stuff, we should all wait in line together," says Horowitz.

"Right," says one student. "Essentially," says another.

"A lot like the rest of the world, which is a lot more dignified than us," says one young woman, who has clearly internalized exactly what her Multiculturalism class was designed to teach her.


Watch below:


An October 2016 survey by the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation found that 45% of millennials would vote for an open socialist and 21% said they would vote for a communist. A majority, 53%, said that capitalism "works against me." Nearly a third, 32%, thought George W. Bush was responsible for the deaths of more people than Josef Stalin, while only a quarter of them “knew that communism is responsible for the slaughter of over 100 million people." That's liberal education at work.

As for Venezuela, if you haven't been following the tragedy playing out there, here's The Washington Post's urgent call from this summer for people to realize that "Venezuela's hunger crisis is for real," and here's CNN Money's explanation of "how a rich country collapsed." Finally, here's The Daily Wire's Michael Qazvini recent piece on the ways socialism destroyed the country.
Title: Hyperinflation
Post by: captainccs on September 08, 2017, 05:58:03 AM
This week I got my first billion bolivar check, Bs. 1,850,000,000.00 to be exact. I've come a long way from my first monthly paycheck of Bs. 800.00! Or have I? Let's do the math.

Back then, 1960, the exchange rate was Bs. 3.35 per US dollar.
The Chavistas knocked three zeros off the new bolivar fuerte (BsF).
The exchange rate on Wednesday was 19,490, I got 18,500.

   Bolivares       Rate  US dollar
      800.00       3.35     238.80
1,850,000.00  18.500.00     100.00


The country has run out of cash and the government can't afford to print new bills, they don't have the money or the credit to pay for them! This has forced the banks to limit the cash withdrawals to BsF. 30,000 per day (some banks less), which is all of $1.50 per day. Were it not for credit/debit cards and bank transfers commerce would be paralyzed. I need the cash mostly to buy stuff from street vendors some of whom have yet to get a point of sale device. One third of yesterday's BsF. 30,000 went to pay for a 2 Kg. papaya. Yesterday I made nine debit card purchases, mostly food, for BsF.128,256.00, on average less that a dollar each purchase.

Hyperinflation is just plain crazy! It's hard to imagine the details until you are in the midst of it.
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 08, 2017, 07:07:52 AM
 :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o

Write a book Denny!
Title: Re: Hyperinflation
Post by: G M on September 08, 2017, 09:55:06 AM
We will be getting this firsthand at some point.



This week I got my first billion bolivar check, Bs. 1,850,000,000.00 to be exact. I've come a long way from my first monthly paycheck of Bs. 800.00! Or have I? Let's do the math.

Back then, 1960, the exchange rate was Bs. 3.35 per US dollar.
The Chavistas knocked three zeros off the new bolivar fuerte (BsF).
The exchange rate on Wednesday was 19,490, I got 18,500.

   Bolivares       Rate  US dollar
      800.00       3.35     238.80
1,850,000.00  18.500.00     100.00


The country has run out of cash and the government can't afford to print new bills, they don't have the money or the credit to pay for them! This has forced the banks to limit the cash withdrawals to BsF. 30,000 per day (some banks less), which is all of $1.50 per day. Were it not for credit/debit cards and bank transfers commerce would be paralyzed. I need the cash mostly to buy stuff from street vendors some of whom have yet to get a point of sale device. One third of yesterday's BsF. 30,000 went to pay for a 2 Kg. papaya. Yesterday I made nine debit card purchases, mostly food, for BsF.128,256.00, on average less that a dollar each purchase.

Hyperinflation is just plain crazy! It's hard to imagine the details until you are in the midst of it.
 
Title: Re: Venezuela - the rabbit plan
Post by: DougMacG on September 14, 2017, 08:19:35 AM
We tried cash for clunkers and they tried the rabbit plan.

Has anybody ever tried ... entrepreneurial capitalism?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41265474

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has devised a "rabbit plan" to counter the economic war he says is being waged against his government by "imperialist forces".

Making Kim Jung Un sound sane, mainstream.
Title: Canned sardines plan
Post by: captainccs on September 14, 2017, 09:13:00 AM
This week I made an interesting discovery. Pork for stewing (no bones) is BsF. 40,000.00 per kilo, chicken breast (no bones) is around BsF. 36,000.00 while a can of sardines in vegetable oil, 119 gr. drained weight, is BsF. 2,250.00, that's BsF. 18,907.00 per kilo.

Not only are the sardines healthier, they are half the price of equivalent chicken and less than half the price of equivalent pork. Fresh sardines are among the cheapest fish but they are a pain to clean and cook.

BTW, sardines make a good pasta sauce.
Title: Re: Venezuela - the rabbit plan
Post by: G M on September 14, 2017, 08:13:03 PM
When they came for the rabbits...


We tried cash for clunkers and they tried the rabbit plan.

Has anybody ever tried ... entrepreneurial capitalism?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41265474

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has devised a "rabbit plan" to counter the economic war he says is being waged against his government by "imperialist forces".

Making Kim Jung Un sound sane, mainstream.
Title: Maduro's finaces continue to unravel
Post by: captainccs on September 20, 2017, 03:08:25 PM
News via email from Caracas Capital Markets

Venezuela's oil production continued to fall in August.

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/opec-crude-production.jpg)

According to OPEC, Venezuela production fell 31,900 barrels per day (bpd) from July and is now 1.918 million bpd.  That is 52,000 bpd below Venezuela's OPEC quota.  Venezuela's rig count fell to 48 last month -- a low it also touched last year but the lowest rig count since the PDVSA strike of 2002.


India Withdraws Support for Joint Venture

India's state oil company ONGC Videsh has abandoned plans to raise funds for the $1.3 billion Petrolera Indovenezolana SA (PIVSA) joint venture project in Venezuela. ONGC had been seeking to syndicate a $304 million loan to fund PIVSA which it holds 40% of.  Venezuela had even been trying to entice India into buying another 10%.


Russia & Rosneft Riding to Venezuela's Rescue? (Part 1)

(http://softwaretimes.com/pics/bill-of-lading.jpg)

As you can see from our above Bill of Ladings data, in early August we began noticing a surge in Venezuela oil exports to the USA that were being paid to Rosneft (TNK is owned by Rosneft and operates out of the exact same Swiss address).  Now there are a whole host of things about this development that bothered the heck out of us.

The second thing that bothered us was that we were essentially paying sanctioned Russians for the sanctioned Venezuelans so that the sanctioned Russians could continue helping the sanctioned Venezuelans, enabling them both to continue subverting U.S. efforts to help clean up the Venezuelan mess.


Venezuela Misses Payment on Venezuela 9.25% of 2027

I am sorry to report that as of this morning, this $185 million interest payment that was due on September 15 has still not been received by bondholders.  Our inquiries to ONCP have received conflicting and confusing answers, but basically the conclusion we have been able to draw is that this $185 million interest payment on $4 billion of the oldest of Venezuela's bonds (issued pre-Chavez and re-tapped by Chavez) has not been paid as of Wednesday, September 20.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on September 20, 2017, 04:22:57 PM
Denny,

So what did you think of Trump's mention of Venezuela in UN speech?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on September 21, 2017, 04:15:16 PM
Denny,

So what did you think of Trump's mention of Venezuela in UN speech?

I think it was a terrific speech specially after the last two jokers the Americans had for president. The Venezuelan mention got one of the three applauses but I fail to see what a foreign country can do when the mischief is inside a country. Iran and North Korea are public menaces but Venezuela is only a menace to itself.

BTW, Venezuela's problem is not socialism, that was tried and it failed several years ago. What we have now is a military dictatorship whose sole aim is to enrich the military and keep it in power. The government is firing workers because it can't afford them but I have never seen so many military types on the streets of Caracas ever before. Some of the supposed "police" wear camouflage and carry long guns, military gear not police gear.

Venezuela is back to the age of the caudillo, the all knowing, all powerful leader, disguised as a democracy.
Title: Trump and Castro on Venezuela?
Post by: ccp on September 21, 2017, 07:04:23 PM
It is the NYT : 

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/opinion/trump-castro-venezuela.html?mcubz=1
Title: GPF: Venezuela default coming on Nov 3?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 24, 2017, 11:22:54 AM
•   Venezuela:  Venezuela has entered the grace period for $321 million worth of coupon payments tied to the debt incurred by PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, that were due to be canceled on Oct. 12. The government has until Oct. 27-Nov. 2 to pay roughly $2.3 billion in debt. The total amount of debt owed in the fourth quarter is $3.5 billion. There is increasing concern over a potential default. What happens if Caracas defaults?
Title: Venezuela: Beleaguered Maduro regime kills guilty, innocent alike in poor barros
Post by: DougMacG on December 21, 2017, 10:51:21 AM
The young men had already been tortured at an army base when soldiers piled them into two jeeps and transported them to a wooded area just outside the Venezuelan capital.

Stumbling in the dark, with T-shirts pulled over their faces and hands tied behind their backs, they were steered to an open pit. Soldiers then used machetes to deliver blow after blow to the base of their necks. Most suffered gaping wounds that killed them before they hit the ground.

Others, bleeding profusely but still alive, crumpled into the shallow grave as their killers piled dirt over their bodies to hide the crime.

“We think they were alive a good while as they died from asphyxia,” said Zair Mundaray, a veteran prosecutor who led the exhumation and investigation that pieced together how the killings unfolded. “It had to be a terrible thing.”

For Mr. Mundaray and his team of investigators, the massacre in this area east of Caracas in October 2016 was the most bloodthirsty of killings by security forces in a country riven by unspeakable violence.

Prosecutors, criminologists and human-rights groups say it was only one of many recurring and escalating lethal attacks carried out by police or soldiers.

The full scope of the alleged atrocities is beginning to surface publicly now.

WSJ excerpt from PJmedia: https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/283971/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-brutal-crime-crackdown-executions-machetes-and-8-292-dead-1513792219

Title: Re: Venezuela: Beleaguered Maduro regime kills guilty, innocent alike in poor barros
Post by: G M on December 21, 2017, 06:21:41 PM
The young men had already been tortured at an army base when soldiers piled them into two jeeps and transported them to a wooded area just outside the Venezuelan capital.

Stumbling in the dark, with T-shirts pulled over their faces and hands tied behind their backs, they were steered to an open pit. Soldiers then used machetes to deliver blow after blow to the base of their necks. Most suffered gaping wounds that killed them before they hit the ground.

Others, bleeding profusely but still alive, crumpled into the shallow grave as their killers piled dirt over their bodies to hide the crime.

“We think they were alive a good while as they died from asphyxia,” said Zair Mundaray, a veteran prosecutor who led the exhumation and investigation that pieced together how the killings unfolded. “It had to be a terrible thing.”

For Mr. Mundaray and his team of investigators, the massacre in this area east of Caracas in October 2016 was the most bloodthirsty of killings by security forces in a country riven by unspeakable violence.

Prosecutors, criminologists and human-rights groups say it was only one of many recurring and escalating lethal attacks carried out by police or soldiers.

The full scope of the alleged atrocities is beginning to surface publicly now.

WSJ excerpt from PJmedia: https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/283971/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-brutal-crime-crackdown-executions-machetes-and-8-292-dead-1513792219



Marxists murdering people in pursuit of eutopia? I think this may have happened a time or two before...

Title: Russia and China in Venezuela, losing
Post by: DougMacG on January 18, 2018, 07:18:00 AM
https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2018/01/15/venezuela_maduro_chavez_russia_china_112682.html
Title: Re: Venezuela, they kicked out the capitalists
Post by: DougMacG on January 18, 2018, 08:05:52 AM
Oil production and revenues are declining - right when they really need the cash.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-oil-industry-takes-a-fall-1516271401

Venezuela’s Oil Production Is Collapsing
Sharp drop in output increases the odds of a debt default, worsens economic crisis
----------'

But they did get rid of the capitalists and the greedy oil companies.
Title: Stratfor: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2018, 07:29:10 AM
After the turn of the millennium, Venezuela enjoyed a windfall thanks to high oil prices that bankrolled massive public spending. Fast-forward a decade, however, and the situation is bleak: An insolvent central government and high inflation are impoverishing a whole generation of Venezuelans. The current situation will likely force any new administration to attempt major structural reforms to stabilize the economy over the next decade, beyond the current stopgap measures of slashing imports and printing more bolivars.

In the short term, the overriding political question centers on whether embattled President Nicolas Maduro will step aside to allow others to begin addressing the crisis. But even after any immediate solution to Venezuela's political impasse, the country's leaders will face the difficult task of fixing a broken economy. Venezuela's leaders may succeed in taming inflation within the decade, but they are likely to bequeath a country that is deprived of much of its energy revenue, professional talent and political stability.

A Long To-Do List for Reformers

Inflation is rising ever more quickly in the country, putting food and medicine beyond the reach of ordinary Venezuelans. In 2017, year-on-year inflation was 2,600 percent, according to estimates by the opposition-controlled legislature. The figure, however, is likely to rise throughout 2018, because a drop in imports, reduced access to foreign currency and the rapid expansion of the country's monetary base through the printing of new bolivars will all spur faster inflation. According to the International Monetary Fund, year-on-year inflation in 2018 could exceed 4,500 percent. Such high levels of inflation will continue to drive people to emigrate, will discourage foreign direct investment and other economic activity, and will lead to greater security problems, such as more looting and armed robberies. In fact, the country's economic catastrophe could evolve into a full-blown humanitarian crisis as increasing numbers of citizens seek a better life in neighboring states and as food becomes scarcer and more expensive.

If Maduro vacated his position, a new president and government would likely impose corrective measures to resolve the country's economic imbalances. Any solution to its inflationary woes will include measures to balance the country's budget (the budget deficit is running at approximately 20 percent of gross domestic product) and to downsize its overstaffed public sector. Another key task that awaits prospective economic reformers is the elimination of currency allocation mechanisms. The government's policy of strictly controlling the distribution of foreign currency has driven up the value of the dollar on the black market and consumer prices for food, medicine and other essential items. Authorities have so far hesitated to terminate the controls, probably because they provide an important source of profit for officials. The government has likewise been loath to slow the printing of bolivars because any such action would necessitate a heavier austerity program, which would result in mass public sector layoffs and would shrink the federal budget.
The Oil Well Runs Dry

But even if Venezuela succeeds in dampening hyperinflation, the country will find itself in the unenviable position of attempting economic recovery with a diminished energy sector. Oil production — which paid for everything from imported luxury goods to periodic handouts to the poorest citizens for decades — will likely continue to drop below its current lows. Venezuela produces about 1.9 million barrels of crude oil per day (almost half of what it produced in the late 1990s), and that output is expected to decline in the coming years, although the exact figure will depend on the amount of financing the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), can obtain and the degree to which global oil prices recover. Declining oil production is a side effect of the social policies pursued by the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) in the early and mid-2000s, when the party effectively created the conditions for the state and private citizens to spend the oil windfall of the era, setting aside little for a rainy day. Currency control mechanisms, which were originally designed to exercise greater control over the flow of foreign currency to businesses and private citizens, became gateways to mass corruption due to the misallocation of government revenue. According to one estimate, corrupt individuals who fraudulently obtained dollars misappropriated approximately 28 percent of all oil revenue between 2003 and 2012. Instead of being used to finance imports, the money was embezzled.

Venezuela's serial loan defaults will also create a problem for any new government; ultimately, Caracas may have to settle with creditors on billions of dollars in outstanding debt, including the Chinese government and private bondholders. Settling these debts will entail years of legal battles and negotiations between the government and its creditors. Outside of oil production, Venezuela has historically pursued few economic activities that can fund high levels of government spending. Accordingly, by the time the country is back on the path to recovery, it will find itself eking out an existence with the lowest prospective oil revenue in several decades to fund such services as security, electricity, sanitation and roadwork. Investment in such public works as roads, electricity and sanitation will also trail the standards set by its neighbors. At the same time, any new government is likely to attempt to impose stricter conditions on the use of PDVSA revenues for social spending.

Even as Venezuela drags itself out of recession, it will have relatively few economic opportunities to offer its citizens.

Even as Venezuela drags itself out of recession, it will have relatively few economic opportunities to offer its citizens. Oil and natural gas will remain by far the largest source of foreign revenue, though growth in that sector will directly benefit few Venezuelans. Even if the country's extremely low salaries (the monthly minimum wage currently amounts to $3 at the black market exchange rate) attract some investment, such problems as poor transportation networks, rampant crime and an unreliable electrical grid will deter all but the most determined new investors in low-end manufacturing, retail and services. Larger foreign companies that have remained in the country throughout the crisis (such as auto manufacturers and food producers) will slowly recover, but the likelihood of continued endemic poverty will limit their ability to sell more valuable products, such as cars, to consumers in the country.
The Political Pushback that Awaits

Political tumult is also likely to accompany Venezuela's period of economic stabilization. The country's opposition is too weak to force Maduro from power, so any departure will depend on the president negotiating a deal with the U.S. government or a military coup by dissidents within the armed forces. If Maduro leaves power in the coming years, a new government will likely feature a hodgepodge of opposition and PSUV figures grafted on to a bureaucratic structure heavily linked to individuals within the current ruling party. Such a government would seek to implement economic recovery measures, but reversing the course on specific measures is likely to ignite great controversy. Any moves to fire nonessential government staff from the large public sector will likely spark protests and become fodder for the PSUV in an attempt to roll back the reforms. PSUV officials could also resist the elimination of well-oiled mechanisms for corruption, such as the currency allocation mechanisms. And because such graft has become so deep-rooted, any robust reforms to end such activity could fail.

Hyperinflation, violence, economic mismanagement and political turmoil are all likely to drive many of Venezuela's best and brightest overseas and impoverish those who stay in the decades to come. Acknowledging that the only way to go is up will compel any new government to implement painful reform measures to improve the perilous state of the economy, but the harmful consequences of today's inflation will live long into the future, relegating Venezuela's coming generations to a worse standard of living — regardless of any government's best efforts.
Title: Re: Stratfor: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 25, 2018, 09:59:42 AM
Kind of a long silence from Denny S.  I hope all is well.

We were looking for the failure of socialism as a way to rid the country of these tyrants and their policies through the ballot box.  We got the former without the latter.

Maduro thugs are (still) using murder to stay in power:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-venezuela-suffers-1516566034

At what point the US offers aid, and how?  It would seem to me that starvation is the breaking point and we are there, yet the dictator and his thugs keep pushing forward (backward).

Venezuelan Entropy - A closed system tends to disorder.  Looting and stealing food from markets destroys the incentive for the merchant to re-stock food, for example. The hyper-inflation is a losing spiral.  I don't see a solution from the inside that is fast enough to save the country without outside help. 

For the US to act, we would need:
1. Clear confirmation that the people want that.
2. A new, free election that removes Maduro and all thugs from power.
3. Full free market reforms that reverse socialism and make the assistance temporary.
4. Is the above even possible and is the chaos reversible?

If we don't act, Russia or China will?  Or no one will?  Where is the rest of Latin America on this?  Broke or immersed in their own problems?  If US private charities (or governments) send food and assistance without conditions, does that bolster the regime - guaranteeing more of the same?

Hyper-inflation: Is it really inflation or just a failed currency?  The US$ retains its purchasing power in Venezuela.

We hear silence from Trump so far, but what did the Obama administration do in 8 years other than prop up the regime?

Trump is a businessman and Venezuela is rich in resources.  Is there a way to help without fleecing our taxpayers and our own budget.  Foreign aid is not high on Trump's agenda but a win-win solutions should be.

Venezuela's source of outside currency is the oil they aren't producing.  The US is now the world's number one producer of oil.  If we could prop up their oil industry in a global market it would be to the detriment of ours?

Does someone see a way forward?  Stratfor frames the problem but not the solution.
Title: Ricardo Hausmann calls for military intervention
Post by: captainccs on January 25, 2018, 11:22:26 AM
Denny is fine, thank you! Just tired of talk, talk, talk and no action. The Venezuelan opposition has been utterly useless. Maduro is NOT in charge, he is a puppet of the military. Chavez named him vice president because he was the safest, tamest, least dangerous lackey he could find. The military are in control, not Maduro. In the attached article Ricardo Hausmann says as much.

In an about face Ricardo Hausmann is calling for military intervention in Venezuela, something I was and still am against in principle. Ricardo Hausmann is no light weight!

Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, is Director of the Center for International Development at Harvard University and a professor of economics at the Harvard Kennedy School.

D-Day Venezuela
Jan 2, 2018 RICARDO HAUSMANN

As conditions in Venezuela worsen, the solutions that must now be considered include what was once inconceivable. A negotiated political transition remains the preferred option, but military intervention by a coalition of regional forces may be the only way to end a man-made famine threatening millions of lives.

CAMBRIDGE – The Venezuelan crisis is moving relentlessly from catastrophic to unimaginable. The level of misery, human suffering, and destruction has reached a point where the international community must rethink how it can help.

Two years ago, I warned of a coming famine in Venezuela, akin to Ukraine’s 1932-1933 Holomodor. On December 17, The New York Times published front-page photographs of this man-made disaster.

In July, I described the unprecedented nature of Venezuela’s economic calamity, documenting the collapse in output, incomes, and living and health standards. Probably the single most telling statistic I cited was that the minimum wage (the wage earned by the median worker) measured in the cheapest available calorie, had declined from 52,854 calories per day in May 2012 to just 7,005 by May 2017 – not enough to feed a family of five.

Since then, conditions have deteriorated dramatically. By last month, the minimum wage had fallen to just 2,740 calories a day. And proteins are in even shorter supply. Meat of any kind is so scarce that the market price of a kilogram is equivalent to more than a week of minimum-wage work.

Health conditions have worsened as well, owing to nutritional deficiencies and the government’s decision not to supply infant formula, standard vaccines against infectious diseases, medicines for AIDS, transplant, cancer, and dialysis patients, and general hospital supplies. Since August 1, the price of a US dollar has added an extra zero, and inflation has exceeded 50% per month since September.

According to OPEC, oil production has declined by 16% since May, down more than 350,000 barrels a day. To arrest the decline, President Nicolás Maduro’s government has had no better idea than to arrest some 60 senior managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA and appoint a National Guard general with no industry experience to run it.

Rather than taking steps to end the humanitarian crisis, the government is using it to entrench its political control. Rejecting offers of assistance, it is spending its resources on Chinese-made military-grade crowd-control systems to thwart public protests.

Many outside observers believe that as the economy worsens, the government will lose power. But the organized political opposition is weaker now than it was in July, despite massive international diplomatic support. Since then, the government has installed an unconstitutional Constituent Assembly with full powers, deregistered the three main opposition parties, sacked elected mayors and deputies, and stolen three elections.

With all solutions either impractical, deemed infeasible, or unacceptable, most Venezuelans are wishing for some deus ex machina to save them from this tragedy. The best scenario would be free and fair elections to choose a new government. This is Plan A for the Venezuelan opposition organized around the Mesa de la Unidad Democratica, and is being sought in talks taking place in the Dominican Republic.

But it defies credulity to think that a regime that is willing to starve millions to remain in power would yield that power in free elections. In Eastern Europe in the 1940s, Stalinist regimes consolidated power despite losing elections. The fact that the Maduro government has stolen three elections in 2017 alone and has blocked the electoral participation of the parties with which it is negotiating, again despite massive international attention, suggests that success is unlikely.

A domestic military coup to restore constitutional rule is less palatable to many democratic politicians, because they fear that the soldiers may not return to their barracks afterwards. More important, Maduro’s regime already is a military dictatorship, with officers in charge of many government agencies. The senior officers of the Armed Forces are corrupt to the core, having been involved for years in smuggling, currency and procurement crimes, narco-trafficking and extra-judicial killings that, in per capita terms are three times more prevalent than in Rodrigo Duterte’s Philippines. Decent senior officers have been quitting in large numbers.3

Targeted sanctions, managed by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), are hurting many of the thugs ruling Venezuela. But, measured in the tens of thousands of avoidable deaths and millions of additional Venezuelan refugees that will occur until the sanctions yield their intended effect, these measures are too slow at best. At worst, they will never work. After all, such sanctions have not led to regime change in Russia, North Korea, or Iran.

This leaves us with an international military intervention, a solution that scares most Latin American governments because of a history of aggressive actions against their sovereign interests, especially in Mexico and Central America. But these may be the wrong historical analogies. After all, Simón Bolívar gained the title of Liberator of Venezuela thanks to an 1814 invasion organized and financed by neighboring Nueva Granada (today’s Colombia). France, Belgium, and the Netherlands could not free themselves of an oppressive regime between 1940 and 1944 without international military action.1

The implication is clear. As the Venezuelan situation becomes unimaginable, the solutions to be considered move closer to the inconceivable. The duly elected National Assembly, where the opposition holds a two-thirds majority, has been unconstitutionally stripped of power by an unconstitutionally appointed Supreme Court. And the military has used its power to suppress protests and force into exile many leaders including the Supreme Court justices elected by the National Assembly in July.

As solutions go, why not consider the following one: the National Assembly could impeach Maduro and the OFAC-sanctioned, narco-trafficking vice president, Tareck El Aissami, who has had more than $500 million in assets seized by the United States government. The Assembly could constitutionally appoint a new government, which in turn could request military assistance from a coalition of the willing, including Latin American, North American, and European countries. This force would free Venezuela, in the same way Canadians, Australians, Brits, and Americans liberated Europe in 1944-1945. Closer to home, it would be akin to the US liberating Panama from the oppression of Manuel Noriega, ushering in democracy and the fastest economic growth in Latin America.2

According to international law, none of this would require approval by the United Nations Security Council (which Russia and China might veto), because the military force would be invited by a legitimate government seeking support to uphold the country’s constitution. The existence of such an option might even boost the prospects of the ongoing negotiations in the Dominican Republic.

An imploding Venezuela is not in most countries’ national interest. And conditions there constitute a crime against humanity that must be stopped on moral grounds. The failure of Operation Market Garden in September 1944, immortalized in the book and film A Bridge Too Far, led to famine in the Netherlands in the winter of 1944-1945. Today’s Venezuelan famine is already worse. How many lives must be shattered before salvation comes?

Ricardo Hausmann

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/venezuela-catastrophe-military-intervention-by-ricardo-hausmann-2018-01
 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2018, 12:20:28 PM
 :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o

Glad to hear you are well Denny!
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 25, 2018, 01:24:09 PM
"Glad to hear you are well Denny!"

Likewise!

If the military is in charge and Maduro is the puppet, and that makes sense to me, then his resignation or a free election alone doesn't change anything. 

From the RICARDO HAUSMANN piece:
"Rather than taking steps to end the humanitarian crisis, the government is using it to entrench its political control. Rejecting offers of assistance, it is spending its resources on Chinese-made military-grade crowd-control systems to thwart public protests."

"...it defies credulity to think that a regime that is willing to starve millions to remain in power would yield that power in free elections."

"the National Assembly could impeach Maduro and the OFAC-sanctioned, narco-trafficking vice president, Tareck El Aissami, ...and constitutionally appoint a new government, which in turn could request military assistance from a coalition of the willing, including Latin American, North American, and European countries. ...  According to international law, none of this would require approval by the United Nations Security Council (which Russia and China might veto), because the military force would be invited by a legitimate government seeking support to uphold the country’s constitution."


This is the first, real solution I have seen.  I like this plan because it involves assistance and force by legitimate invitation and would not be the US acting alone when we aren't directly threatened.  I hope they do it soon before the military closes the assembly.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on January 25, 2018, 04:07:39 PM
I believe one is duty bound to vote in a democracy. Until Chavez took power I had never missed an election. I even voted in the primary of a party I don't belong to (I never have been a party member). I abstained in one election when the opposition advised abstaining which turned out to be a mistake. Last year I didn't vote because elections are openly rigged, candidates are banned, gerrymandering has been raised to an art form giving some people two votes, and to top it all, the opposition is feckless.

A curious incident happend on a corner near where I live. A street vendor was selling home made ice cream. A group of street walkers bought some but failed to pay. Half a block away were stationed some soldiers supposedly to keep order. The ice cream vendor asked them for help. They made fun of him and sided with the street walkers. This happened across the street from a tire shop I have been using for over 25 years and they gave me these details.

There are no police on the streets, they are patrolled by various military groups whose mission is not to protect the people but to protect the government from the ire of the people. On one such military outpost there is a slogan that says "Socialist Justice." Is there more than one kind of justice? It's all sloganeering. The theft of a country. I've been saying since 2012 that the only way to remove these gangsters is by force and it will come to that, sooner or later. Ricardo Husmann's turnabout is a clear sign that this idea is finally taking root.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Stratfor: Would Venezuela invade Guyana?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 08, 2018, 03:34:12 PM
 
       

Feb 8, 2018 | 20:54 GMT
5 mins read
Would Venezuela Invade Guyana?
According to an unconfirmed report, a Brazilian government delegation plans to meet with Guyana and Suriname about a possible Venezuelan military incursion into Guyana.
(BEYHANYAZAR/iStock)



    According to an unconfirmed report, a Brazilian government delegation plans to meet with Guyana and Suriname about a possible Venezuelan military incursion into Guyana.
    For Venezuela, entering Guyanese territory could delay an International Court of Justice border ruling and even grant Caracas a bargaining chip in amnesty negotiations with the United States.
    The incursion would come with great risks for Caracas, as it may invite a harsh response from Washington.

A Brazilian delegation's quick trip to Guyana and Suriname suggests things are moving beneath the surface of the border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. On Feb. 7, Brazilian President Michel Temer approved a trip by Defense Minister Raul Jungmann, Justice Minister Torquato Jardim and Institutional Security Cabinet Chief Sergio Etchegoyen to Guyana and Suriname. According to Agencia Estado, the visit's purpose is to discuss border security with the Guyanese and Surinamese governments. However, an unconfirmed report in Brazilian paper O Antagonista claimed the real reason behind the visit was to share information that Brazil's intelligence services had learned about Venezuela considering a military incursion into Guyana.

Venezuela has claimed ownership over the Guyanese territory west of the Essequibo River since 1962. But recently, the U.N. Secretary General referred the border dispute issue to the International Court of Justice, which may issue a binding decision on the matter within the next several years. According to the O Antagonista report, Brazil's information claims that the Venezuelan government is considering siezing that territory. On Feb. 8, the Brazilian ministers visited their country's Roraima state, an area bordering Guyana and Venezuela that has seen tens of thousands of Venezuelan refugees pour across the border in recent months as unrest in the country grows.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 09, 2018, 05:50:00 AM
When in trouble, make war!  :evil:
Title: Gatestone Institute: Iran, Russia, and China's Role in Venezuela Crisis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 17, 2018, 11:12:17 AM
 




Iran, Russia, and China's Central Role in the Venezuela Crisis
by Joseph M. Humire
Gatestone Institute
February 14, 2018
http://www.meforum.org/7206/iran-russia-and-china-central-role-in
Share:   

 U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson just completed, by most accounts, a successful visit to Latin America. He began his five-nation tour by invoking the Monroe Doctrine and suggesting the Venezuelan military could manage a "peaceful transition" from the authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro. This reminded several regional observers of President Trump's suggestion last year of a possible "military option" for Venezuela, hinting at possible U.S. or multilateral intervention to stop the country's collapse.
Any party in the Western Hemisphere seeking to undertake military intervention in Venezuela— including Venezuela's own military—must take into account the role Iran, Russia and China have played in the crisis. Russia and China were prominently mentioned by Tillerson during his visit to the region; Iran, however, was notably absent from his remarks.

Most regional analysts will likely agree that Venezuela has become a Cuban-occupied country. With more than 30,000 Cubans embedded in Venezuela, many of whom are part of the intelligence and security apparatus, it's clear that the Castro brothers played an integral role in the country's collapse. However, this narrative of Cuban intervention misses two key points. First, it fails to identify precisely Cuba's role in Venezuela, and, secondly, it ignores the presence and influence of other key extra-regional actors.

External support from China, Russia, and Cuba has contributed significantly to propping up the Venezuelan government during the last decade.

Of these, Russia and China are perhaps the two most visible. As in Syria, and, historically, in Central America, Russia is the primary supplier of military aidand technical support to the Venezuelan armed forces. Venezuela represents 75% of Russia's total foreign military sales in the region, accounting for more than $11 billion in arms sales.

Additionally, the Russian state-owned energy firm, Rosneft, has provided Venezuela with an estimated $17 billion in financing since 2006. Moscow has leveraged its collateral deals to acquire expanded stakes in Venezuela's oilfields—specifically, the heavy-crude Orinoco belt—providing Russia greater control of Venezuela's strategic energy assets.
Russia is not alone in translating Venezuelan debt into strategic assets. According to the International Institute of Finance, China holds more than $23 billion in Venezuela's foreign debt, making it the country's largest creditor. Through these credits and loans, Beijing is the primary benefactor and principal banker to the South American nation, yielding enormous leverage over the state.

Chinese energy companies are also gaining an increasing share of Venezuela's most lucrative oil field, the Faja Del Orinoco (FDO). China secured a 25-year land grant to the FDO. In exchange, China has used its checkbook to fund many of the nation's social programs, such as subsidized housing and free medical clinics.
 
Pictured: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro visits Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Iran on October 22, 2016.

External support from China, Russia, and Cuba has buoyed the Venezuelan government during the last decade. Cuba's robust counterintelligence and human intelligence networks, which permeate Venezuela's highest political and military levels, are indispensable to China and Russia because of their operational knowledge of Russian-supplied equipment, along with their longstanding ties to communist clandestine networks.

In this context, it is hard to imagine a strategy that would remove Havana's presence from Venezuela without first passing through Moscow or Beijing. Iran, on the other hand, can operate independently in Venezuela because it taps into a separate, more robust clandestine network that has been developing in Latin America for more than half a century.

Approximately 60% of the population of the city of As-Suwayda in southwestern Syria (pop. 139,000, according to the 2004 census) are Venezuelan-born dual citizens. Many more have arrived since 2009. The district of As-Suwayda (same name as the city) has been dubbed "Little Venezuela." Estimates indicate that upwards of 300,000 Syrians from the As-Suwayda Governorate currently live halfway around the world in Venezuela. According to the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, more than a million Syrians reside there. This Syria-Venezuela connection could represent a clandestine network managed by Iran and critical to the advancement of Chavez's "Bolivarian revolution."

As in the Syria conflict, Iran's primarily role is preparing the Venezuelan battlefield through a range of operations in irregular warfare, using non-state actors and surrogates to gain influence over the population. Its influence is often not visible on the ground, but it was evident when Iranian-trained forces helped repress anti-regime protestors in 2017. During anti-Maduro demonstrations, the motorcycle-riding members of the Venezuelan civilian militias known as Collectivos were clearly modeled on and trained by Iran's paramilitary Basij militia. The role of the Basij in crushing Iran's Green Revolution in 2009 provided lesson for dealing with anti-regime protestors half a decade later in Venezuela.

Strong evidence suggests that Venezuela used its immigration agency (SAIME) to provide Venezuelan identities and documents to several hundred, if not thousands, of Middle Easterners.

The extent of Iran's influence in Venezuela has long been a source of debate among U.S. and regional security analysts. In many ways, Iran has positioned itself in Venezuela to capitalize on China's economic clout and Russia's military footprint. For instance, Iran's Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) used a variety of joint projects with Venezuela's military industry (CAVIM), as well as Russian and Chinese oil contracts with PDVSA, to shield it from international sanctions.
Iran's most salient expertise, however, is in the development of clandestine structures through surrogate forces and proxy networks. Its most prominent proxy force, Lebanese Hezbollah, is known to deploy to global hotspots on behalf of Iran. Meanwhile, the Qods Force (the extra-territorial arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps - IRGC) works with Hezbollah to increase social pressure in these hotspots to exacerbate conflicts. The Hezbollah and IRGC-QF cooperation is an important component of the Syrian civil war.

In Venezuela, long-standing clandestine networks from Syria, Lebanon and the Middle East are playing a similar role behind the scenes in shaping the narrative and ultimately directing the actions of the country's key players. These networks have provided the Venezuelan regime with the know-how to control the population and propagate its narrative. Their influence is evident from the prominence of Arabs in the Venezuelan government.
 
Protesters have taken to Venezuela's streets to condemn unprecedented levels of oppression.

The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela began with severe shortages of food and medicine, prompting a a popular uprising last year. Syria faced a similarly severe drought before its civil war that contributed to the violent uprisings that began in 2011. As in Syria, Venezuela faces a humanitarian crisis that exacerbates refugee outflows with serious counterterrorism concerns and a strong Russian and Iranian presence. Unlike Syria, however, this crisis rests much closer to U.S. shores.

Strong evidence suggests that Venezuela used its immigration agency (SAIME) to provide Venezuelan identities and documents to several hundred, if not thousands, of Middle Easterners. Unless our regional allies have proper vetting and verification measures in place, as well as a high degree of counterintelligence support, they will not know if the Venezuelan refugees spilling across their borders are legitimate refugees or members of a transregional clandestine network between Latin America and the Middle East.

As Secretary Tillerson calls upon regional allies to increase support to resolve Venezuela's humanitarian crisis and apply more pressure to the Maduro regime, it would also make sense for the Trump administration to help U.S. allies by enhancing their counterintelligence and counterterrorism capabilities against Iran and Hezbollah in the Western Hemisphere. It appears that some of this cooperation is already beginning to take place, as evidenced by a new agreement between the U.S. and Argentina to tackle Hezbollah's illicit financing in the Southern Cone.

Dealing with the tragedy that has transpired in Venezuela over more than two decades will require a better public understanding of the central role of extra-regional actors, particularly Iran, in the country's crisis.

Any intervention in Venezuela -- military, humanitarian or otherwise -- will not work unless it is aimed at removing the external influences, especially Iran, Russia and China, that have turned Venezuela into the Syria of the Western Hemisphere.

Joseph M. Humire is the executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society (SFS) and a fellow at the Middle East Forum. This article has taken excerpts from a forthcoming special report by Mr. Humire on "Venezuela's Crisis: A New Global Paradigm." You can follow him on Twitter at: @jmhumire.
Related Topics:  Joseph M. Humire



Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: captainccs on February 19, 2018, 09:40:12 AM
This is the most accurate narrative of the current Venezuelan situation I have yet read. Many of the topics covered have been circulating for years but have not been covered by the US mainstream media which covers only the superficial "shelves are empty and people are starving" that any idiot can see with his own two eyes. The US mainstream media isn't worth the paper it's printed on and much less the screens it's displayed on.

I want to comment on the Arab presence in Venezuela because if you don't know anything about it the article might give you the wrong impression.

Venezuela has a very large Arab presence that goes back a very long time. I don't have an explanation for it but it is a historical fact. This is a well integrated community in no way related to Islamic extremism. There is a sector in downtown Caracas, El Silencio, where Arabs and Jews (collectively called Turks by the locals) have retail businesses side by side in perfect harmony. Some of the most polite shop keepers in Caracas are Arabs. In the aftermath of the Six Day War there was a comment circulating in Venezuela that captures perfectly the spirt of our melting pot culture. "Had Golda Meir and Gammel Abdel Nasser shared a cup of coffee in El Silencio, there would not have been a Six Day War." That war happened in 1967, more than 30 years before the assent of Chavez. To drive the point home, let me add that a friend of mine had a furniture factory with lots of Arab shops for customers. For a time I helped him out by selling and delivering the furniture which gave me the opportunity to interact with these people and I have the highest regard for them based on that personal experience.

None of the above has changed except that it is the perfect cover for Iran's ambitions in Venezuela. I have not spoken to these people about this subject as I keep my relation with them on a strictly non-political basis. What I do know is that Arab shopkeepers, like all other Venezuelan shopkeepers, are very unhappy with the economic situation.

Denny Schlesinger
 
Title: Pravda on the Potomac weighs in
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 24, 2018, 07:25:35 AM
By Editorial Board  Washington Post




February 23 at 6:40 PM   

THE LONG-RUNNING crisis in Venezuela, which has undergone a catastrophic economic collapse even as its authoritarian regime has consolidated power, has now spread across its borders. The president of neighboring Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, said this week that his country’s most serious problem could be the mass influx of desperate Venezuelan refugees: More than 600,000 are now in the country, and thousands more are arriving every day. Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have swamped the Brazilian Amazon city of Boa Vista, 140 miles from the border. More than 60,000 have asylum appeals pending in the United States.

This human outflow, which the United Nations says amounts to more than 1.1 million people, is the largest displacement of people in Latin American history. But Venezuela’s refugees are attracting far less attention or international aid than those fleeing Burma or Syria. That needs to change.

The reason for the exodus is simple: Once proud citizens of the richest nation in Latin America, Venezuelans now are starving. A social survey released this week  showed that more than 90 percent say they do not have the means to buy sufficient food, and 61 percent say they go to bed hungry. Though it controls the world’s largest oil reserves, the regime founded by Hugo Chávez has wrecked not just oil production but the economy as a whole, leaving stores empty of food and hospitals deprived even of common medicines. Inflation is skyrocketing above the 2017 rate of 2,600 percent, and rampant homicide has made Caracas one of the most dangerous cities in the world.




Compounding the crisis is the refusal of the Chavista government, now headed by Nicolás Maduro, to accept humanitarian aid, which it describes as a means for foreign invasion. Rather than take basic steps to feed people or stabilize the economy, Mr. Maduro, steered by Cuban advisers, is preparing to stage a rigged election for every office in the country in April, which would allow for the elimination of all formal political opposition. The regime already put down a pro-democracy uprising last year with mass repression that led to more than 120 deaths.

Latin American nations that for years avoided addressing the collapse of democracy in Venezuela now are reaping the consequences in a very human form. Foremost is Colombia, which for years pandered to the Chavista regime and now finds its border cities overrun with desperate refugees, some of whom are reduced to sleeping in parks and begging on the streets. In an effort to stem the tide, Mr. Santos suspended border passes for 1.5 million Venezuelans and deployed 2,000 troops to block informal entry routes into the country. That may slow the refu­gee arrivals but at the cost of denying relief to hungry people.


Mr. Santos said his government is ready to accept international aid. But though the United Nations’ refu­gee agency is on the ground in Colombia and Brazil, the response has been nothing like that devoted to servicing refugees from Syria or Burma. Many Venezuelans are finding shelter with family or friends in other nations, but as Mr. Santos said, “the number of people that need to be attended to is growing exponentially, and no state has the capacity to absorb it.” With no solution to the crisis inside Venezuela in sight, it’s time for the United States and other nations to do more to mitigate its external impact.
Title: emigration
Post by: ccp on February 25, 2018, 07:37:15 AM
https://spectator.org/millions-flee-socialist-paradise-of-venezuela-straining-neighbors-brazil-and-colombia/
Title: VERY long article: POTH: Can Venezuela be Saved?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 02, 2018, 10:43:59 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/magazine/can-venezuela-be-saved.html?emc=edit_ta_20180302&nl=top-stories&nlid=49641193&ref=cta

Since the publication of this article, armed guards from the Venezuelan intelligence service have raided and occupied the residence of Leopoldo López. Members of the Venezuelan National Assembly gathered in front of the house, along with local media and citizens, to protest the invasion and threats by the Venezuelan government that López will be returned to military prison.

There’s a page in a book in a stack on the floor at the house of Leopoldo López that I think about sometimes. It’s a page that López revisits often; one to which he has returned so many times these past few years, scribbling new ideas in the margin and underlining words and phrases in three different colors of ink and pencil, that studying it today can give you the impression of counting the tree rings in his political life.

The book is not set out in a way to invite this kind of attention. Almost nobody is allowed to enter the López house, for one thing, being surrounded all day and night by the Venezuelan secret police; but also, for all his flaws and shortcomings, López just isn’t the sort to dress up his library for show. Pretty much every book in the house is piled up in a stack like this one — row upon row of stacked-up books rising six to eight feet from the dark wood floors, these gangly towers of dog-eared tomes, some of them teetering so precariously that when you see one of the López children run past, you might involuntarily flinch.

The particular book I have in mind is a collection of political essays and speeches. It was compiled by the Mexican politician Liébano Sáenz, with entries on the Mayan prince Nakuk Pech and the French activist Olympe de Gouges. The chapter that means the most to López begins on Page 211, under the header “Carta a los Clérigos de Alabama.” This is a mixed-up version of the title you know as “Letter From Birmingham Jail,” which was written by the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in 1963. King was in Birmingham to lead nonviolent protests of the sort that everybody praises now, but it’s helpful to remember that in 1963, he was catching hell from every quarter. It wasn’t just the slithering goons of the F.B.I. wiretapping his home and office or the ascendant black-nationalist movement rolling its eyes at his peaceful piety, but a caucus of his own would-be allies who were happy to talk about civil rights just as long as it didn’t cause any ruckus. A handful of clergymen in Birmingham had recently issued a statement disparaging King as an outside agitator whose marches and civil disobedience were “technically peaceful” but still broke the law and were likely “to incite to hatred and violence.”
Photo
Leopoldo López last July. He had been released to house arrest on the condition that he keep silent. Credit Carlos Becerra

On the page in the book at the López house, King fires back. Writing from a cramped cell without a mattress or electric light, he scrawled a response on scraps of paper for his cellmate to smuggle out. Near the top of the page, López has underlined a passage in pencil where King condemns the complacency of “the white moderate” and the suggestion that peaceful protesters are responsible for the violent response of others. “We who engage in nonviolent direct action are not the creators of tension,” he writes in a passage López marked with green: “We merely bring to the surface the hidden tension that is already alive.” King then compares civil disobedience to the lancing of a boil, before culminating in a passage that López has flagged at least half a dozen times — with some words underlined in red, others highlighted pink, a handful of phrases boxed in green and three large arrows drawn into the margin beside the words: “Injustice must be exposed, with all the tension its exposure creates.”
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As a migrated Venezuelan - in my case I was able to do it via corporate relocation - reading this article makes me think of so many things...
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At a certain level, it’s unremarkable when a politician studies King, and among the people López tries to emulate, I wouldn’t put King at the top. He is more directly influenced by the former Venezuelan president Rómulo Betancourt or, for that matter, by his own grandfather Eduardo Mendoza, who was Betancourt’s adviser. But when you consider the path that López has followed these past few years in prison, the choices he’s made, the compromises and blunders, the price he has paid to speak his mind and the price now of his silence, if you want to understand the impact of four years in captivity and nine months in solitary confinement, the message from King in Birmingham is a very good place to start.

López was arrested in February 2014 after leading a public protest that turned violent. Prosecutors acknowledged in court that López was technically peaceful, but they accused him of inciting others to hatred and violence. Before his arrest, he was among the most prominent and popular opposition leaders in Venezuela. Polling suggested that he could defeat President Nicolás Maduro, the unpopular successor to Hugo Chávez, in a free election. At trial, he was sentenced to 13 years and nine months in prison. Since then, he has become the most prominent political prisoner in Latin America, if not the world. His case has been championed by just about every human rights organization on earth, and he is represented by the attorney Jared Genser, who is known as “the extractor” for his work with political prisoners like Liu Xiaobo, Mohamed Nasheed and Aung San Suu Kyi. The list of world leaders who have called on the Venezuelan government to release López includes Angela Merkel of Germany, Emmanuel Macron of France, Theresa May of Britain and Justin Trudeau of Canada; it is that rarest of political causes on which Barack Obama and Donald Trump are in agreement. In Venezuela, López has become a kind of symbol. His name and face are emblazoned on billboards, T-shirts and banners — but there’s widespread disagreement on precisely what he represents. The Venezuelan government routinely disparages him as a right-wing reactionary from the ruling class who wants to reverse the social progress of chavismo and restore the landed aristocracy; the Venezuelan right, meanwhile, considers López a neo-Marxist, whose proposal to distribute the country’s oil wealth among the people would only deepen the chavista agenda.

For three and a half years in prison, López refused to let anyone speak for him. Though he was prohibited from granting interviews or issuing public statements and was often denied access to books, paper, pens and pencils, he managed to scribble messages on scraps of paper for his family to smuggle out, and he recorded a handful of covert audio and video messages denouncing the Maduro government. From time to time, he could even be heard screaming political slogans through the bars of the concrete tower in the military prison where he was kept in isolation.

López was released to house arrest last July on the condition that he fall silent. He promptly climbed the fence behind his house to rally a gathering crowd, then issued a video message asking his followers to resist the government. Three weeks later, he was back in prison; after four days, he was released again. Ever since, to the great bewilderment of his supporters, he has vanished from public view. While the country descends into an unprecedented crisis — with the world’s highest rate of inflation, extreme shortages of food and medicine, constant electrical blackouts, thousands of children dying of malnutrition, rampant crime in every province, looting and rioting in the streets — López has said nothing.
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Photo
Venezuelan families forced to leave their homes because of economic conditions now live in Colombia under a bridge that connects to Venezuela. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

Today his critics include not just the hard-line left and right but much of the Venezuelan majority that once saw him as a future president. They don’t understand what López is doing inside that house, tucked away on that leafy street in the wealthy suburbs of Caracas, but they suspect that he has grown comfortable there, reunited with his wife and children; that his family’s wealth insulates him from the economic crisis; that the secret police who surround his home protect him from rising crime; and they can’t help wondering if Leopoldo López has finally given up. They know, as he knows, that if he issued a public statement or released another video message, if he climbed the fence behind his house to address his followers again, the secret police would swoop in to haul him back to prison. But López never let the risk of prison stop him before. He would have at least one chance to speak, and they wonder why he hasn’t.

There’s a flicker onscreen whenever López connects, then a blur of pixelated color as his face comes into view. On different days, at different times, he can look very different. There are mornings when he turns up in an old sweatshirt with unkempt hair and a weary smile, and others when he appears in a pressed oxford shirt with parted hair and black-rimmed glasses that do nothing whatsoever to obscure the haunted air of a sleepless night.

I think of a Saturday in October. It was a few minutes after noon. I was out for a walk with my kids when a message from López popped on my phone. “The situation is very delicate,” he wrote. “I may be on the borderline of going back to prison.” Scrambling home, I opened my laptop and after a minute, he appeared onscreen. López is 46, 5-foot-10 and fit. He was sitting at the desk in his living room with his hair poking off at angles, and the cast of his expression was an admixture of fear, fatigue and fury.

When the audio clicked on, I asked what was happening. López took a deep breath. He propped an elbow on the desk and rested his head in his hand. “Last night around 7:30, they came to my house — more than 30 officers of the political police,” he said. “They had more than 10 cars. They closed the entire street. And then they came into my house.” For more than a decade, López has employed a private security detail, as political opponents stormed his events with masks and guns, sprayed his car with bullets and murdered one of his bodyguards. Under house arrest, he is allowed to maintain a small guard outside. During the raid, López said, the police took his chief of security into custody, and no one had heard from him since. “There was absolutely no reason, legally, they could take him, and they have not allowed any lawyers to go in to see him,” López said. He looked down at his desk and shook his head. “So that’s the situation,” he said quietly. “And I wanted to tell you that I’m willing to go forward with this, what we’re doing.”

At that point, we had a very different sense of what we might be doing. We had been in contact for only a few weeks. I first reached out to López through an intermediary in August, not long after his return to house arrest, and by September we were talking a couple of times a week, usually for a couple of hours at a time. This was a clear violation of his release. An order from the Venezuelan Supreme Court specifically forbid him to speak with the news media, and we didn’t expect to get away with it. At a minimum, it was safe to assume that his house was bugged for sound, but there were probably hidden cameras as well, and his computer was surely hacked and his internet activity monitored.

The world is full of byzantine methods to communicate through encrypted channels, but most of them are obviated for a person who is trapped in a digital glass house and surrounded by the state security of an authoritarian regime. We did what little we could to be discreet, knowing it wasn’t much. Rather than connect on Skype or FaceTime, we used an obscure video service, which seemed at least marginally less likely to be a platform the police had practice hacking. Whenever we spoke, López wore a pair of headphones, so a conventional audio bug would only pick up his side of the conversation, and we adopted the general posture of old friends catching up. This was not as much of a stretch as it may seem. López is three years older than I am and a graduate of Kenyon College, where we briefly overlapped but never met. From time to time, one of us would mention the school or someone we both knew there, and our kids would periodically wander onscreen to wave hello.

All of this seemed hopelessly primitive in the face of state surveillance, but then again, it seemed as if it might be working. Once in a while a big white van would appear in front of his house and the connection would go dark, but within an hour or two, the van would leave and we’d get back online. Neither of us could explain why, if government agents were listening, they hadn’t shut us down or come inside to arrest him. There was every reason to believe that they would. In our conversation that day in October, López mentioned that the agents raiding his home had given just one reason: They believed he was talking to a reporter and recording a video message. This led to a curious moment in our conversation, as the recording system on my end of the interview captured his denial. “It’s not true,” he said to anyone listening. “I’ve had no contact with any journalist!”

I don’t mean to make light of the situation, but the truth is, we often did. Venezuela was coming off a summer that promised change. In July, the opposition movement sponsored a nonbinding referendum on the government’s plan to rewrite the Constitution. With more than seven million ballots cast, 98 percent of voters opposed the government. Soon after that, emissaries from the government approached opposition leaders to begin a formal negotiation, with a primary focus on the release of political prisoners. Even as we spoke that day in October, the country was preparing for regional elections in which opposition candidates were expected to win by a landslide.

There were contradictory signals, of course, but the trajectory was toward transition. This was a time when headlines everywhere predicted a “turning point” for Venezuela, and I think on some unspoken level, López was counting on it. It was a gamble to speak publicly, but it wasn’t crazy to imagine that by the time this article appeared, the political landscape could be transformed — that the opposition, which already held a supermajority in Congress, could win a similar proportion of governorships; that a regional victory would carry into the municipal campaign in December; that they would enter this year’s presidential race with momentum against a deeply unpopular president, polling at 25 percent; that the negotiation for political prisoners might even allow López to challenge Maduro himself. Polls at one point suggested he could win the presidency by a margin of 30 percent.

This was the conversation that I think we expected to have last summer: a look at the next chapter for Venezuela and the role he might play. Instead, with each passing day, the possibilities grew more slender. When voting began on the morning after that October call, nothing went as expected. The polling places for more than 700,000 citizens had mysteriously moved, in some cases so far that it would take hours for them to travel on crowded buses. Even so, by evening, officials were reporting overwhelming turnout and a breathtaking upset: Candidates from the ruling party had swept all but five of the governor’s races. Amid a global outcry of fraud, several opposition parties withdrew from the municipal elections — and the government responded by invalidating those parties. The scheduled negotiation with opposition leaders began in November. In January, the talks collapsed. In February, officials dissolved the whole coalition of opposition parties.

Political leaders of every stripe were being detained by the secret police. The second-ranking member of Congress went into hiding at the Chilean Embassy, and about a dozen mayors fled the country. The state, the economy and the social fabric were unraveling all at once. Everywhere, people were leaving Venezuela any way they could. They piled into ramshackle boats and died at sea. They walked the highway toward Brazil, collapsing in heat and sun. They poured into Colombia, tens of thousands each day, a refugee crisis comparable in number to the flight of the Rohingya to Bangladesh. It seemed that every time I spoke with López, another friend had taken sanctuary in an embassy, gone to prison or fled.
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Venezuelans crossing into Colombia in February. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

I asked him one day recently how he was managing the pressure. The secret police had just returned to his house with another order to arrest him, and he was saying goodbye to his wife, Lilian, who was eight months pregnant, when one of the agents received a phone call to suspend the arrest. It wasn’t clear when they might return.

“How are you feeling?” I asked.

“It’s tough,” he said. “It’s tough after what happened. Every day I think is the last day I have to be with my kids.”

I asked if he ever thought about trying to escape. “Most people tell me that I should,” he said. “But I believe a commitment to the cause means that I need to take the risk.” As he spoke, I realized that what we had actually been talking about all these months, what he had been trying to communicate through this portal from his silence, was never really about the future of Venezuela or the role he hoped to play, and it wasn’t about political ambition or the next chapter in history. It was something fundamental that kept coming up in offhand remarks. It was something that he learned in prison about the history we’re always in.

The line of people waiting to leave Venezuela begins to form an hour before dawn. Migrants drift through unlit streets in the border town of San Antonio to gather at the foot of the Simon Bolívar Bridge, where they wait beneath a huge red banner that reads, “Don’t speak ill of Chávez.” When the checkpoint opens at 6 a.m., they push forward, moving shoulder to shoulder down the two-lane highway into Colombia. There will be no tapering off through the day; there is no end to the people coming. Some have traveled more than a week to get here. It only takes a glance to see what sort of people they are: every sort, of every age, from every profession and social stratum — young families and older couples and clusters of itinerant boys and solitary young women looking several weeks overdue. If you stop for a moment on your way across the bridge, you can almost feel the deflating wind of the Venezuelan exodus at your back.

Historians have come up with all sorts of arguments about the arc of Venezuelan history and how things went so wrong. A couple of points strike me as indispensable to any case: Venezuela is the birthplace of Latin American independence and sits on the largest proven reserves of oil in the world. How you interpret the role of these factors in any given historic event is a matter of personal politics and granular debate, but you can’t have a serious discussion about Venezuela without taking both into account. For most of the past century, the country has whipsawed between political movements that court and reflect and sometimes renounce the legacy of anti-imperialism and the towering glut of riches.

Like most of its neighbors, Venezuela endured a succession of caudillo strongmen in the early 20th century and responded with a radical leftist movement in the 1950s and ’60s. Unlike its counterparts in neighboring countries, the Venezuelan left didn’t get very far. Some of them took up arms in the mountains and limped through a series of gunfights, but by the end of the ’60s, most had returned to a marginal place in conventional politics. One of the few who stayed in the fight was a guerrilla named Douglas Bravo, who called his nationalist political ideology “Bolívarianism.” Bravo finally settled in Caracas in the 1980s, where he developed inroads with disaffected citizens and soldiers in the Venezuelan Army. Two of the acolytes he courted were the brothers Adán and Hugo Chávez, who welcomed the idea of leading a Bolívarian coup.

It took about a decade of recruitment and planning, during which time the Venezuelan establishment seemed to be doing everything possible to help them. For decades, the two major parties essentially passed the presidency back and forth in a power-sharing agreement that gave little heed to the country’s swollen underclass. Venezuela’s economic fault lines had become so fraught that in 1989 a rise in bus fares helped trigger deadly riots. By the time the Chávez brothers were ready to attempt their coup in 1992, a lot of Venezuelans were just happy to see the establishment take a hit. Although the coup failed and Chávez spent two years in prison, he emerged as a minor celebrity. By 1998, he was running for president.
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Gas smugglers from Venezuela on one of the dozens of rural routes that connect Venezuela and Colombia by crossing the Táchira River. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

It’s easy now, with the country in turmoil, to dismiss the whole project of chavismo. But the election of Chávez in 1998 coincided with a groundswell of social and political movements for whom Chávez, with his energy and outrage, pledging to crack down on corruption and raise the minimum wage, seemed a natural ally. Whatever else Chávez became, he delivered on many of his promises. During his tenure, unemployment fell by half, the gross domestic product more than doubled, infant mortality dropped by almost a third and the poverty rate was nearly halved. You can chalk this up to other factors, like a tenfold increase in the price of oil that showered his administration with revenue, and you can argue that Chávez failed miserably to anticipate the next downturn in oil prices, but you can’t really accuse him of making promises to the poor and then delivering to the rich, or keeping all the money for himself. Under his watch, income inequality dropped to one of the lowest levels in the Western Hemisphere. Chávez didn’t have to steal elections. He was wildly popular among the poor and put his proposals up for election almost every year. He introduced touch-screen voting, with thumbprint recognition and a printed receipt, an electoral system that Jimmy Carter described as being, among all the countries he had monitored, “the best in the world.”

Chávez also possessed an autocratic impulse that was jarring from the start. Over the course of 14 years in office, he dismantled the country’s democratic institutions one by one. There’s an interesting debate among political theorists about what to call a leader who destroys a democracy with democratic support. It’s possible to think of Chávez as a totalitarian or a tyrant for suppressing his opponents while rejecting the term “dictator” to describe a popular president. Chávez made no secret of his contempt for the country’s extant political system; he couldn’t even get through his first inauguration without ad-libbing, in the middle of the swearing-in ceremony, a promise to rewrite the Constitution — which he promptly did, consolidating power over the Legislature and the courts.

Any limit that Chávez might have been willing to accept on his power vanished in April 2002, when a junta of military officers and right-wing leaders tried to oust him in a coup. For about 36 hours, they installed as president a man named Pedro Carmona, who was the director of Venezuela’s primary business consortium. Carmona’s government proceeded to undermine institutions at a clip that would make even Chávez blush. In the single day of his presidency, he dissolved the Legislature, the Supreme Court and the Constitution and began to cleanse the Venezuelan military of anyone loyal to Chávez. This was too much even for critics of chavismo. The streets of Caracas exploded in protest, and crowds descended on the presidential palace. Soon Chávez was back in office, consolidating power more quickly than ever. He persecuted rivals and stacked the courts and levied so many restrictions on industry that the private sector essentially disappeared.

You can think of the decade between the coup and his death in 2013 as a gradual process of bleeding out public resources for public consumption. At a basic level, Chávez just wasn’t very good at managing an economy. His budget spent the revenue from skyrocketing oil prices, and his control of the state oil company proved disastrous. Chávez believed that because oil reserves are a finite resource, it made sense to limit production and drive up the price of every barrel. This way of thinking is widely disputed, if not debunked. Producers are constantly developing new ways to find and access oil; between the American shale revolution and rising competition from alternative energy, most oil companies today want to pump as much oil as quickly as they can.

When Chávez took power in Venezuela, the state oil company was producing about 3.4 million barrels per day. Its leadership planned to almost double the volume. Instead, through a combination of Chávez’s misguided theories and a general failure to invest in the company and installing his personal henchmen to run it, production of Venezuelan oil has fallen by nearly half. Oil prices have also dropped considerably over the past few years, but the country has little else to sell. According to the most recent data, oil accounts for about 95 percent of Venezuelan export earnings. Much of that oil is being shipped to Russia and China in exchange for help with the national debt, giving both countries expansive claims on Venezuelan production. The more desperate the Maduro regime becomes, the more these countries stand to gain.

What you’ve got then is a domino cascade: less and less oil, at lower and lower prices, with nothing else to sell, and a dependence on foreign money at the expense of future income. The final chip in the cascade has been Venezuela’s currency. As national revenue plunged, leaving a gap in the annual budget, Chávez and Maduro turned to the central bank to print more money. The number of Venezuelan bolívars has grown exponentially in recent years. When Maduro took power in 2013, the country’s monetary base was about 250 billion bolívars. Today, it’s more than 60 trillion. For a sense of scale, imagine if you had $5,000 yesterday, and today it was $1.2 million. I don’t mean to suggest any meaningful comparison between your savings account and a national economy, but it’s not difficult to imagine how a huge increase in money distorts the way people spend it.

Most countries around the world produce official inflation reports. The Venezuelan government has essentially stopped. One of the world’s leading experts on hyperinflation is a professor at Johns Hopkins University named Steve Hanke, who has advised governments around the world on runaway inflation, including Venezuela in 1995 and ’96. Hanke has been tracking the Venezuelan economy closely for the past five years, producing a daily estimate of the country’s annual inflation. As I write this, his most recent estimate was 5,220 percent. The International Monetary Fund has predicted that inflation in Venezuela will reach 13,000 percent this year.
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A Venezuelan gas smuggler. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times
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Joint operations between the police and the Colombian military try to stop smuggling. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

This is what you see in the faces of the people on the bridge leaving Venezuela. You see people trying to escape a country where basic supplies are nearly impossible to find and prohibitively expensive, where the price you paid for a car a few years ago won’t buy a loaf of bread today. You see families with roll-aboard luggage and no plans to go back, and children who are crossing just for the day with nothing but a bunch of bananas. They will sell the bananas for a pittance in Colombian pesos, then return home to convert the cash into a small fortune of Venezuelan currency — at least for a few days, when their money will be worthless again.

López was born to privilege in the wealthy enclaves of northeastern Caracas. His father, Leopoldo López Gil, was the head of an international scholarship program who sat on the editorial board of a center-left newspaper. His mother, Antonieta Mendoza, was a distant relative of the first president of Venezuela, Cristóbal Mendoza, and of Simon Bolívar. Each side of the family had long traditions of political activism and dissent. López grew up hearing about his great-grandfather’s 17 years in prison and his grandfather’s role in the underground resistance. “We always heard those stories,” his sister Diana told me. “I think it was always in Leo’s memory.” López said he relished the history in part because it felt so alien, snapshots of a country that he couldn’t quite imagine. “I saw it as a faraway past of black-and-white pictures,” he told me. “I never thought that in the 21st century, my own reality could be similar.”

The Venezuela that López inhabited was the wealthiest country in Latin America. It welcomed tens of thousands of immigrants every year and had been a democracy since 1958. Skateboarding, swimming, crazy for girls, López at 13 was largely removed from the country’s systemic inequities. He was on a school trip to the rural state of Zulia, passing through the region’s oil fields, when he found himself unexpectedly moved by the destitution around him. “I was shocked by the poverty level,” he recalled, “and the fact that below these very humble barrios and dramatic poverty, we had huge potential.” Diana told me that López began making trips into western Caracas “to try to understand the dynamics of the city.” At school, he immersed himself in student leadership, becoming vice president of the student government and captain of the swimming team.
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After college, López briefly enrolled at Harvard Divinity School but left after one semester to enroll in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard. He completed a master’s thesis on the legal and economic framework of oil production in Venezuela and traveled through Nicaragua and Bolivia to study the impact of microloans. In 1996, he returned home for a job in the strategic planning office of the state oil company.

Watching the ascent of Chávez in 1998, López was unimpressed. “Ever since the establishment of the Venezuelan republic in 1830, for the most part we’ve had military in the government,” he told me. “And that has created a militaristic way of governing.” I asked López if there was ever a point when he reconsidered his opinion of Chávez. “For one day,” he said with a laugh. “When he spoke about microcredits to the poor.”

As Chávez took office and began making plans to rewrite the Constitution, López campaigned for a seat in the constitutional convention. He lost that election but rallied with two other failed candidates to create a new political party, then he entered the 2000 campaign for mayor of the city’s most affluent borough. He won with 51 percent of the vote.

Over the next eight years, López gained international attention as mayor of Chacao. He began by raising business taxes while offering incentives for companies to move into the district. With revenue up, he commenced a series of public works, building health clinics and schools, a theater, a public market and a recreation center. Still unmarried and in his early 30s, he was comically hands on, forever rolling up his sleeves at groundbreaking ceremonies and appearing, in Cory Booker fashion, at predawn crime scenes to consult with detectives in the blinking red light. In a city notorious for crime, he implemented policing measures that were popular in the United States — think “zero tolerance” and “broken windows” and “compstat” multivariate analysis. His platform, then, was a heterodox mash-up of initiatives that span the political spectrum, from lefty measures like raising corporate taxes to conservative models of policing. Residents loved it. In 2004, he was re-elected with 81 percent of the vote, and during his second term he met and married a prominent television personality named Lilian Tintori. In 2008, López left office with 92 percent approval and a ranking from the City Mayors Foundation as the third-best mayor in the world.

Skimming this résumé, you can see why people often regard López in a gauzy half-light, but even as he thrived as mayor of Chacao, he was becoming a polarizing figure. By the end of his second term, he was one of the most promising young politicians in Venezuela and one of the least capable of getting along with others. Within the opposition movement, López represented a radical wing. The word “radical” is often used about López in a misleading way. He favors a mixed economic model of expansive social services in health care, education and housing, offset by a large private sector of manufacturing and industry. On the spectrum of American politics, he would probably land in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party.

Where you can describe López as a radical is the way he approaches political activity. He believes that a relentless campaign of street demonstrations and civil disobedience is essential to challenge an authoritarian government. On any given day in 2002, a person walking through Caracas had a good chance of spotting the mayor of Chacao standing on a bench in some public park, bellowing at a crowd through a megaphone. How useful this was to the project of building a mature political party with governing potential was a matter of opinion, but López believed that the movement would get nowhere by relying on decorous party mechanics.

One way to measure the success of a strategy is to study its response. López became a frequent target of physical and administrative attacks. From 2002 to 2006, there were three major attempts on his life, one of which left him cradling a bodyguard dying of a gunshot meant for López. During his tenure as mayor, he was accused by the comptroller’s office of paying municipal expenses from the wrong part of his budget and barred from seeking public office until 2014. López appealed the decision and prepared to run for mayor of Caracas. He was leading with 65 percent of the vote when the Supreme Court upheld the comptroller’s decision. The Inter-American Court of Human Rights ruled the ban illegal and ordered Venezuela to let López run, but the government ignored the order and López has been forbidden to hold public office ever since.

By 2008, he was also clashing with other opposition leaders. He left the party he helped found, joined another and soon had issues with its leadership as well. In August, that party expelled him, and he began making plans to create yet another. American diplomats in Caracas weren’t sure what to make of López. A classified cable to Washington described his “much-publicized rebelliousness,” noting that López “will not hesitate to break with his opposition colleagues to get his way.” Another referred to him as “a divisive figure” who was “often described as arrogant, vindictive and power-hungry.”
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Venezuelan migrants in Cúcuta. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

In 2012, still barred from running for office, López threw his support behind an opposition candidate in the presidential election. Chávez beat that candidate by a 10-point margin but died soon after, opening the door for a repeat campaign against Maduro. When the electoral board announced that Maduro had won by a single percentage point, López suspected fraud. He pushed for the opposition movement to stage a public demonstration. Most of the other opposition leaders dismissed the idea, but in January 2014, López called for his supporters to take the streets.

By February, protests were springing up in every province. On Feb. 12, López rallied thousands of students at the edge of a park in Caracas. After his speech, they marched to the office of the attorney general a mile away. Some of the protesters began throwing rocks at the building. Security officers emerged, and two protesters were shot. Though López was gone before the violence began, officials accused him of being the “intellectual author” of the skirmish, and the attorney general issued a warrant for his arrest.

López and Tintori took refuge that night in a friend’s apartment. They recorded a video message for the public. “I want to say to all Venezuelans that I do not repent,” López said. He spent a few days in hiding, then recorded another video asking his supporters to gather at a downtown plaza on Feb. 18, dressed in white as a sign of peace, to bear witness as he turned himself in.

That morning, he climbed on a motorcycle and rode into the city. A large crowd was gathering, and the police had set up checkpoints to intercept him. López tried to find a way around the checkpoints but couldn’t. He finally rode up to a cluster of police officers from the Chacao district and removed his helmet. The officers recognized him, saluted and waved him through. López saw the crowd extending in every direction. Thousands upon thousands of people had come dressed in white. He waded through them to a statue of the Cuban independence hero José Martí and climbed the pedestal to look over the sea of faces. Someone handed him a megaphone, and he raised it. “If my imprisonment helps to awaken a people,” he called out, “then it will be worth the infamous imprisonment imposed on me.”

After a short speech, he climbed down from the pedestal, where soldiers were waiting to arrest him. They pulled him inside an armored vehicle, but the crowd pressed in, rocking it. Minutes passed, then half an hour. The truck was trapped by the crowd. Someone gave López a handset connected to the vehicle’s outside speakers. He called to the crowd that he was safe and that they should clear a way for the truck to get through. Slowly, almost grudgingly, they parted the path for López to prison.
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An opposition demonstration in Caracas in February. Credit Carlos Becerra for The New York Times

Officials placed López in a concrete tower on a military base outside the city, charging him with terrorism, arson and homicide. Amnesty International condemned his prosecution as “an affront to justice” and “a politically motivated attempt to silence dissent.” For his initial arraignment, he was taken from his cell in the middle of the night and marched outside to face a judge on a bus. The rest of the proceedings took place at the Palace of Justice in Caracas, a five-story edifice that sprawls across 1.5 million square feet downtown. Over the next 19 months, he traveled there nearly 100 times, in a motorcade of armored S.U.V.s, wearing a bulletproof vest, with his hands shackled together, wedged between two guards armed with machine guns and two more behind him. Each time López appeared in court, the Palace of Justice shut down.

The trial hinged on speech. No one accused López of being violent himself. Prosecutors scaled back the charges, arguing that he inspired violence in others. They brought in a linguistic expert to examine transcripts of his speeches and claimed that his message of peaceful protest disguised a “subliminal” call to violence. They introduced more than 100 witnesses, some of whom testified that they had received the subliminal messages. López tried to introduce his own witnesses, but the judge wouldn’t allow it.

A few words about the judge who signed his arrest warrant and a lead prosecutor and attorney general: They all repent. The judge who signed the warrant later admitted that she had been forced to do so. The lead prosecutor, after fleeing the country, denounced the case against López as “a farce,” saying “100 percent of the investigation was invented.” The attorney general, Luisa Ortega, escaped to Colombia last summer and says that the vice president of Maduro’s party instructed her to pursue López. I tracked Ortega down a few weeks ago, and we met for coffee in Bogotá. When I asked her about the criminal charges against López, she shook her head in dismay. “Without a doubt,” she said, “Leopoldo López is a political prisoner.”

Ortega told me it had been illegal to hold a civilian like López in a military prison. Over the course of three years, his conditions grew progressively worse. In the early stage, he was allowed to read and write, and a local university devised a program of study. He read Venezuelan poets, Ralph Waldo Emerson, the diary of Ho Chi Minh and a biography of Nguyen Van Thuan. He was consuming several volumes a week, until officials began to restrict what he could read. Eventually, they prohibited everything except the Bible. He read it from Genesis to Revelation. Then they took the Bible, too.
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A migration center run by the Catholic Church in Cúcuta. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times
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Outside the refuge in Cúcuta, Colombia. Credit Sebastián Liste/NOOR, for The New York Times

He was moved to a new cell, then another. He spent months in solitary confinement in a room that was six feet by 10 feet. He would sit in silence trying to pray or meditate and summon any possible reason for gratitude: that he could feel himself breathing; that his wife and children were safe; that through the window he could hear the commotion of the outside world — a passing truck, a twisting wind, some emphatic bird.

Without his books, he reflected on those he had read. He remembered biographies of nonviolent leaders and the Birmingham letter from King, and he began to wonder if what they had in common wasn’t just a commitment to resistance but some deeper observation about the character of history. This came through most clearly in King. His goal was never just to provoke or confront. It was to locate the elusive fulcrum between conflict and mediation — to produce an onslaught of pressure that forced officials to react while preserving an almost irrational faith in their capacity for good will.

“I had an illumination moment,” López recalled. “One night, I couldn’t sleep, and I was tossing from one side of the bed to the other, thinking about the son-of-a-bitch director of the prison. I was very, very angry, and I woke up the next morning, and I said: ‘What am I doing? This guy is taking away my tranquillity, my sleep.’ ” He realized that the buildup of anger threatened to distort his thinking. He began trying to separate his outrage from his fury. He continued to defy the arbitrary rules of prison — composing and smuggling a stream of subversive messages to the outside — but when the guards would charge into his cell to look for contraband, shouting and tearing through his things, he searched for calm. He would stand back, lifting his hands in a posture of self-defense and say in the most measured tone he could muster that he would protect himself if necessary. In the hours between, the interminable stretches of solitude, he tried to be honest with himself about what anger had cost him. It wasn’t just a threat to his state of mind but to his politics, his movement and the way he conceived the future.

“In the past, I was in confrontation with different views,” he told me. “Now I understand that everybody is needed in order to reach a way out of this disaster.” He thought of books he had read on postwar Europe and the South African emergence from apartheid, and he realized that Venezuela would never find stability if it were cleaved into disparate sectors. It would be necessary to forge, like Mandela with F.W. de Klerk or King with Lyndon Johnson, some tentative confianza between the opposition and supporters of chavismo. “A lot of people in the opposition have resentment, and I understand that,” he told me. “But I think our responsibility is to move beyond the personal resentment. Four years in prison have given me the possibility of seeing things a different way, of putting rage in its perspective.”

A few nights ago, I was speaking with López a little before midnight. His family was asleep, and in the quiet hours he was bracing for the possibility that appearing in these pages could trigger his return to prison. This was something we had talked about many times. His eldest daughter was a toddler when he first went to prison and is now a little girl. His son had been less than a year old and was just now getting to know his father. At the end of January, López and Tintori had a second daughter, and it troubled him to think that years could pass before he saw any of his children again.

“It’s not easy,” he said quietly. “It’s not easy, but I have the responsibility to speak my mind. I’ve been in prison four years now because of speaking my mind, and if I self-censor, I’m beaten by the dictatorship.” López said he still believed that with the right leadership, Venezuela could rebound. He thought of postwar Japan and South Korea and Europe. He knew that stabilizing the bolívar could be accomplished by attaching its value to a foreign currency, and that under a new government, the private sector would return. He believed the country’s oil production would recover under good management, and he had been working for nearly a decade on a plan to convert the national oil company into a kind of Social Security trust, with investment shares assigned to the public for retirement, education and emergencies.
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López with his children, Manuela (left) and Leopoldo, at home in January. Credit Diana López for The New York Times

The challenge was to reach a point where any of that work could begin. As the crisis in Venezuela deepened, the path to a transition seemed more obscure than ever. Politicians, historians, think-tank pontificators — everyone had some sort of proposal, but the problem, if you studied each of them, was that none had very much chance of happening, or of working.

Start with the Trump administration, which has lately suggested a military coup. Speaking in February, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson mused that in a situation like Venezuela’s, “it’s the military that handles that,” to which Senator Marco Rubio later added on Twitter that the Venezuelan military should “restore democracy by removing a dictator.” Apart from the obvious fact that removing a dictator is no guarantee of democracy, there aren’t many people in Venezuela who consider a coup likely. A few weeks ago, I met up with the leader installed by the last military coup, Pedro Carmona, who told me the military has been purged of dissent, with senior officers monitored for ideological purity by the Cuban intelligence service. “The G2 has a facility in Caracas, spying on the Venezuelan military,” he said. “So on the military side, the best I could hope would be for them not to repress the people.”

Pressure from outside Venezuela has also been slow to coalesce. Critics accuse the members of the Organization of American States of failing to constrain the Maduro government, which showers oil bounty on several member nations. A smaller coalition of Latin American countries has joined with Canada to create the Lima Group, whose vociferous condemnation of the political repression has not converted to much concrete action. American sanctions have been steadily tightening in recent years. After a protracted debate between the National Security Council and the State Department, the Obama administration imposed limited sanctions in 2015, primarily targeting the financial assets of individual Venezuelan leaders. Mark Feierstein, who assumed responsibility for N.S.C. policy in the Western Hemisphere later that year, told me the administration had missed a critical opportunity to influence a 2016 negotiation between the Maduro government and the opposition. “The N.S.C., or at least I, was inclined to move more quickly,” he said, “and I think the negotiations largely failed because pressure was taken off.” The Trump administration has expanded the sanctions program, but how far to deepen sanctions, or expand them, or restrict the import of Venezuelan oil, is a brutal calculation about how much of the burden would be carried by the Venezuelan people, and whether adding to their misery is more likely to inspire an uprising or simply worsen the humanitarian disaster.

In recent months, there has also been rumbling about war. Trump has made oblique suggestions of a “military option” in Caracas, and even relatively moderate voices have begun to fantasize about cavalry. In January, the Harvard scholar Ricardo Hausmann, who served as Venezuela’s minister of planning from 1992 to 1993, published a proposal suggesting that the Legislature invite a multilateral invasion force to help support a new government, making a comparison to the liberation of Europe. I spoke with several opposition leaders who welcome this idea, but this might say more about the country’s desperation than the wisdom of the proposal. It’s difficult to imagine Russia and China, after years of propping up the Venezuelan economy in exchange for oil, allowing a foreign invasion to threaten their investment. An even greater concern is internal: Maduro is polling at about 30 percent approval in a devastated economy, but nothing would rally former chavistas to his side like an occupying army. Venezuela is a heavily armed society and increasingly violent. To invite a military intervention is to welcome civil war.

A few months ago, it was possible to imagine an electoral path to change, but today nearly all the opposition parties have been disqualified from running. On the evening of Feb. 15, Maduro took this a step further, interrupting television and radio broadcasts to announce that the party López founded in 2009 is not a political organization but a “violent fascist group” operating “outside the law.” When I spoke with López the next morning, he said that 87 party leaders were already in prison. Those who remained were preparing to convert the party into a “clandestine organization.” Soon, he said, they could be reduced to secret meetings and tossing pamphlets on street corners from unmarked vans.

But even as conditions spiraled down, I watched López try to incorporate what he learned in prison to daily life. Unable to speak publicly, he developed a network of private channels — reconnecting with leaders of the political parties from which he’d split, making inroads with members of the Maduro government and with foreign ministers and heads of state. During the recent negotiation between opposition leaders and the government, López was in contact with all sides; even after his party withdrew from the dialogue, he continued to consult with leaders who remained at the table. When disputes spilled over among them, he provided a back channel, an invisible hub to which it seemed as if all spokes connected.

López was also flexible in his thinking about transition. Through most of our conversations, he strongly opposed the idea of military action, but when we spoke late the other night, he said he was beginning to think differently. An unwelcome mechanism can bring welcome change.

“In 1958, there was a military coup that began the transition to democracy,” he said. “And in other Latin American countries, there have been coups that called elections. So I don’t want to rule anything out, because the electoral window has been closed. We need to go forward on many different levels. One is street demonstrations; a second is coordination with the international community. But this is how I’m thinking now: We need to increase all forms of pressure. Anything, anything that needs to happen to produce a free and fair election.”

If it was jarring to hear this from López, it was matched by another development. For several months, the secret police had been coming to his front door about four times a day to photograph him with a copy of the day’s newspaper. Lately, López had begun to invite the agents in. He had recently spoken with one for more than two hours, offering him a slice of cake from his daughter’s birthday and talking about the inflation crisis and the recent massacre of a small rebel group. “We’ve developed — I wouldn’t say a good relationship, but a relationship,” he said.

Thinking about these developments together, it seemed to me that López was trying to strike an increasingly difficult balance. He was willing to entertain proposals that he found abhorrent six months ago, but he was also making a greater effort to open the door for dialogue. The struggle he faced was a heightened version of the tension in all history. It was to locate the elusive fulcrum between his rage and faith.

Wil S. Hylton is a contributing writer for the magazine. His last story was about Breitbart News.

A version of this article appears in print on March 4, 2018, on Page MM30 of the Sunday Magazine with the headline: Can Venezuela Be Saved?. Today's Paper|Subscribe
Title: Venezuela: Children dying from starvation
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 05, 2018, 07:26:42 AM

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/17/world/americas/venezuela-children-starving.html
Title: Venezuela is holding US (Citgo) hostages??
Post by: DougMacG on March 21, 2018, 09:00:01 AM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/white-house-former-citgo-executives-are-hostages-in-venezuela

http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-detains-four-u-s-citizens-for-alleged-corruption-1511361280
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on March 21, 2018, 09:09:23 AM
Bringing this idea forward.
------------------------

As solutions go, why not consider the following one: the National Assembly could impeach Maduro and the OFAC-sanctioned, narco-trafficking vice president, Tareck El Aissami, who has had more than $500 million in assets seized by the United States government. The Assembly could constitutionally appoint a new government, which in turn could request military assistance from a coalition of the willing, including Latin American, North American, and European countries. This force would free Venezuela, in the same way Canadians, Australians, Brits, and Americans liberated Europe in 1944-1945. Closer to home, it would be akin to the US liberating Panama from the oppression of Manuel Noriega, ushering in democracy and the fastest economic growth in Latin America.2

According to international law, none of this would require approval by the United Nations Security Council (which Russia and China might veto), because the military force would be invited by a legitimate government seeking support to uphold the country’s constitution.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/venezuela-catastrophe-military-intervention-by-ricardo-hausmann-2018-01
Title: STratfor: Between Bad and Worse
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 06, 2018, 01:32:40 PM
Highlights

    Venezuela's government will try to use the U.S. citizens in its custody as leverage in talks with Washington.
    If Washington chooses to seriously engage in negotiations with Caracas, it will probably try to steer the crisis in Venezuela away from a potentially violent military coup or to address the regional effects of emigration from the country.
    Domestic factors, such as opposition in the White House and among voters in Florida, could prevent the talks from even starting.

An answer to the pressing question of what to do about Venezuela may be starting to take shape. U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions traveled to Venezuela for an unannounced meeting with President Nicolas Maduro on April 5. The day before, Sen. Dick Durbin quietly met with unspecified members of the Venezuelan government and opposition on a trip to the country. A former U.S. official — a Cuba expert in President George W. Bush's administration who had previously negotiated with Venezuelan officials in the wake of an attempted coup in 2002 — visited Venezuela to meet with Maduro in February. The same month, the governor of Carabobo state, a close confidant of Maduro, came to the United States and delivered a message to U.S. lawmakers that Venezuela was willing to discuss freeing Joshua Holt, a U.S. citizen in its custody. The reason for the series of meetings is clear: Caracas is trying to begin substantive negotiations with Washington, starting with Holt's release.

But it will be difficult for the United States to broach the subject of his return (or that of several other U.S. citizens held in Venezuela) without the Venezuelan government making its own demands. Caracas, for example, could ask Washington to remove the sanctions against it or try to get the United States to promise not to implement heavier restrictions on its oil sector. The United States, meanwhile, is unlikely to agree to a deal that would leave Maduro in power, since keeping him in office will do nothing to address the country's political standoff or resolve its economic crisis. Any discussion between the United States and Venezuela will eventually come around to what it will take to get Maduro out of power.

The Big Picture

Venezuela's crisis is a festering regional problem, and the United States and its allies in Latin America see President Nicolas Maduro's administration as the main impediment to solving it. A recent series of meetings between U.S. and Venezuelan officials suggests that Caracas is ready to talk. But as we noted in our 2018 Second-Quarter Forecast, even if the United States persuades Maduro to leave power, members of his administration will ensure that a "candidate of their choosing" takes his place.
See Americas section of the 2018 Second-Quarter Forecast

See Venezuela's Unraveling

For Maduro to give up the presidency — for instance in the election slated for May 20 — the United States would, paradoxically, have to agree to drop its demands for a free and fair vote. Washington has long backed the Democratic Unity Roundtable — the opposition political coalition that Maduro in December barred from running — and has demanded that the Venezuelan government allow it to contest the election. Now the United States would have to acquiesce to Venezuela's holding the election with Henri Falcon as the only opposition candidate in the running, and holding it in such a way that he could stand a chance of winning. The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) would rather Maduro slowly turn power over to a known quantity such as Falcon than lose his office suddenly and leave the administration at the mercy of the opposition and the United States. A delay in the election would be a likely signal that discussions along these lines are underway.

If the United States goes through with the talks, however, it may well open up a Pandora's box of competing interests that would hamstring the negotiations. Maduro is pursuing talks probably because of pressure from members of his own administration, but plenty of other Venezuelan officials may want to attach themselves to the discussions, too, to see what they can get. Immunity from criminal prosecution — whether in Venezuela or in the United States — would be at the top of the list. Maduro himself also may bring demands to the talks that would delay a resolution. He could, for example, demand his nephews' release from the United States on cocaine smuggling charges. And Washington would try to insist that the Venezuelan government recognize the opposition and involve it in policymaking.

The negotiations' complexity, the changes in the U.S. administration's foreign policy team and the realities of domestic politics will all work against a resolution. Arranging a transition away from Maduro, after all, would require Washington to sideline the Democratic Unity Roundtable. Doing so may not sit well with hawkish foreign policy officials such as incoming national security adviser John Bolton, and it definitely won't sit well with Cuban-American politicians such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Unlike Barack Obama, who undertook his controversial outreach to Cuba during his last term in office, President Donald Trump has his re-election campaign to think about. Trying to negotiate with the Maduro administration would risk alienating voters in Florida, a battleground state in the next presidential race.

Allowing the PSUV to undertake a slow transition away from Maduro and toward political coexistence with the opposition may be the safest and most expedient way to curb Venezuela's chaos.

For these voters, U.S. government officials and Venezuelan opposition members, the main sticking point with such a negotiation is that it would leave the PSUV in power. Separating Maduro from the government would be an elegant way to stop the party's oppression of opponents and its inaction on the economy. But the PSUV would still control the country's most powerful institutions, such as the military, the government bureaucracy and the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela. As a result, the United States would have a hard time squaring the outcome with its stated intent to remove Maduro's administration from power.

Nevertheless, the Trump administration may resort to this solution, for want of a better one. Washington has few options to effect political change in Venezuela without deepening the plight of the population and driving more Venezuelans into Colombia and Brazil. At the same time, if Maduro simply stays in power, a violent nationwide coup could unfold. Allowing the PSUV to undertake a slow transition away from the president and toward political coexistence with the opposition may be the safest and most expedient way to curb the country's chaos.

The obstacles to reaching a deal are numerous. What's more, the Venezuela crisis is still a low enough priority for Washington that it won't have to engage in a negotiation with Maduro's government if it doesn't want to take the risk. Caracas' attempt at dialogue with the United States may fail, but the Maduro administration is trying all the same.
Title: The Bloody Grab for Gold in Venezuela’s Most Dangerous Town
Post by: captainccs on April 09, 2018, 09:48:00 AM
The U.S. Army has 315 General Officers. Generals (O-7 to O-10) comprise 0.06% of the Army. There is 1 General for every 1600 Soldiers.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-generals-are-there-in-the-US-...

The above is for perspective.

Maduro has promoted hundreds of officers since he became president in 2013 — there are now some 1,300 generals and admirals. High-ranking members of the military control legitimate industries, black markets and the nation’s security, creating a “perverse relationship,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, an Americas analyst at IHS Markit, a London consultant.


The Bloody Grab for Gold in Venezuela’s Most Dangerous Town
With free rein from Maduro, the military cuts a violent swath through the failing state. Dispatches from ground zero, El Callao.

By Andrew Rosati
April 9, 2018, 7:00 AM GMT-4

In Venezuela’s gold capital, national guardsmen block the roads. Military convoys and motorcycles circle while soldiers keep wary watch behind sandbag checkpoints or patrol with faces covered by balaclavas and rifles in hand.

The military has been fighting for months to master El Callao, the dangerous nation’s most dangerous town, and a beachhead in efforts to develop a mineral-rich region the government calls the Arco Minero del Orinoco. President Nicolas Maduro granted the army the handsome prize, a move that helps ensure the unpopular autocrat’s power. But the takeover has been punctuated by blood and bullets as soldiers raid neighborhoods and clandestine mines across 70,000 square miles from Colombia to Guyana, asserting themselves over gang lords and claiming revenue both legal and illicit.

On Feb. 10, the army seized weapons,  burned vehicles and killed 18 civilians — including a woman and a youth — in one of the deadliest clashes since the project’s inception. Many victims were shot in the head and face, according to police photos and death certificates obtained by Bloomberg.

Soldiers “know that they can benefit from the uniform they’re wearing,” said Miguel Linares, 31, a trucker who ran gasoline to mines — and whose 34-year-old brother, Tigue, and close friend Carlos Alfredo Brito were among the dead.

“You have to pay,” he said. “They can put you in jail.”

Maduro faces a May 20 election with support from only about a fifth of the population and he is turning over swathes of the economy to the 160,000-member military, the strongest power in a failing state. Active and retired officers hold 14 of 32 cabinet posts. Soldiers have replaced many of the 80 state oil company leaders whom Maduro has imprisoned since August. The ports have been militarized and the Defense Ministry oversees the hungry nation’s food supply.


The Arco Minero is another lucrative franchise granted by Maduro.

“It’s an incentive for loyalty,” said Rocio San Miguel, president of the Control Ciudadano watchdog group in Caracas. “It’s indicative of where the forces of power lie in Venezuela. Military power is hegemonic and in control of everything.”

Maduro has promoted hundreds of officers since he became president in 2013 — there are now some 1,300 generals and admirals. High-ranking members of the military control legitimate industries, black markets and the nation’s security, creating a “perverse relationship,” said Diego Moya-Ocampos, an Americas analyst at IHS Markit, a London consultant.

In El Callao, years of dwindling oil revenue and failed statist policies have the government craving gold deposits it claims total as many as 8,000 tons, which would be the world’s second-largest behind Australia. The Arco Minero produced 8.5 tons in 2017, while Maduro hopes to raise production to 24 tons by year-end, according to mining minister Victor Cano. Venezuela needs it desperately. The nation's gross domestic product is projected to fall about 15 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, a cumulative drop of almost half in five years.

Gold processing ground to a halt amid neglect and mismanagement after late President Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry in 2011, and gangs imposed themselves over illegal miners who descended by the thousands. Official production fell to a single ton in 2016, according to the CPM Group, a commodities researcher. But that year, Maduro granted the armed forces wide-ranging security powers and let them create a company that would provide mining services. He invited 150 companies to exploit diamonds, gold and coltan in the region, but few partners materialized.

Now, shootouts regularly erupt among soldiers and rival gangs. The miners are extorted by all sides, but still they flock to muddy pits and hand-dug shafts to pick and pan.

In a gang-run mine tunnel hundreds of feet below the outskirts of El Callao, Gregorio Aguilar was working a 36-hour shift lugging sacks of rocks and rust-colored soil. Weeks earlier, he had been bagging what few groceries there were in nearby Puerto Ordaz.

“You’re in God’s hands here,” said Aguilar, 28. “What’s the alternative? We came to survive.”

Many don’t. El Callao last year ranked as the country’s most-violent municipality, according to the Venezuelan Violence Observatory, which estimated a homicide rate of 816 per 100,000 residents.

El Callao sits amid mountainous jungle along the Yuruari River, and gold brokers, jewelry and tool shops line its thoroughfares. Paved roads quickly give way to dirt tracks, where makeshift camps and tarp-covered tunnels are around every bend. Businesses cater to miners: Open-air bars stocked with cold beer are within walking distance of the pits, stacks of speakers blare salsa music and prostitutes ply the streets. In a country where cash is scarce, residents carry brick-sized wads of bills to bodegas and markets that offer meats, milk and imported pasta.

At the apex of this isolated economy sits the national guard. The force manages the flow of gasoline for generators and water pumps, and controls commerce. In the almost 120 mile (190 kilometer) drive from Puerto Ordaz to El Callao, there are more than a half-dozen military and police checkpoints.

“They control the territory, they control the legal system — the rules — and they have the guns,” said San Miguel of Control Ciudadano. “It’s an area that functions in a completely feudal sense.”

Low-ranking soldiers shake down individual miners and smugglers, while officers extract tributes from armed groups for the right to do business. Those gangs in turn extort anyone wishing to work.

Then, there’s the official business: The Venezuelan central bank purchases gold in El Callao from select brokers, mill associations and groups of registered miners, dubbed “mining brigades.” State gold processor Minerven melts the ore into bars, which military aircraft take to airbases around Caracas. Soldiers unload the riches into armored vehicles bound for the central bank.

The bank is selling off gold to keep the country afloat, drawing down its reserves of the metal to $6.6 billion from almost $20 billion at the beginning of 2012, according to a report from investment bank Caracas Capital Markets. “Venezuela has been running on fumes for years and hoping the reserve tank would get them to safety,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner of the bank.

When the gold arrives in Caracas, it is presented — sometimes to Maduro himself — in ceremonies broadcast on state television. The president, who has said he plans to launch a bullion-backed cryptocurrency, was shown kissing a bar with his eyes shut. Such ardor belies the brutal struggle in the Arco Minero. Over the past year, local news outlets have reported dozens of killings by state forces in El Callao and surrounding areas.

The Feb. 10 army raid that killed the civilians happened at a mine called Cicapra, about 25 miles from El Callao, according to a military communique seen by Bloomberg.

Carlos Alfredo Brito, 27, had recently begun delivering gasoline to wildcatters along with the Linares brothers. He had been making a pittance hauling vegetables, livestock and furniture but needed money to buy epilepsy medicine for his mother.

“I begged him to just go to Peru just like all the other young people in Venezuela,” said his mother, Petra Rodriguez, a 52-year-old from the small town of Soledad.

Brito’s last trip was a gamble, said Miguel Linares, who negotiated the deal with a gang leader for 20 barrels but returned home before the attack. The group of six would be paid in gold. They traveled in an SUV and two trucks, stopping repeatedly to repair a balky clutch and selling some of the gasoline to buy parts.

Brito’s mother last heard from her son Feb. 8. She had texted Brito to let him know she had managed to find 11 boxes of medicine and hoped God would watch over him.

“Amen, mommy!” Brito responded. “What relief. You have no idea how happy this makes me. I love you.”

The group stayed at the mine after night fell Feb. 9, surrendering their cell phones to the gangsters. The army arrived in the small hours.

After the violence, soldiers recovered assault rifles, pistols and grenades, according to the internal communique, which didn’t explain why the army came to the mine. It said the victims were resisting authority, but the families insist they were slaughtered.

A Ministry of Defense spokeswoman declined to comment on the killings. “They’re not going to make any statement, and there are no statements on the matter,” Kariandre Rincon said.

Cano, the mining minister, said in an interview the armed forces respect human rights, but miners must put themselves on the right side of the law. “If they’re doing criminal activities, they can’t be expected to be treated like saints.”

On Saturday, Feb. 10, Brito’s mother texted him, “God bless you, son! How are you? What are you doing?” No reply. The family heard of his death later that day.

By then, the army had delivered his body to a police station in southern Bolivar state, victims’ relatives said. From there, the remains were taken to an overheated morgue near Puerto Ordaz, where families came to collect them. The naked corpses were stacked head to toe on metal trays, with numbers taped to their chests.

Brito had been shot repeatedly in the chest. His family buried him that Monday in Soledad. The date was written with a finger on his concrete slab.

— With assistance by Fabiola Zerpa, Ben Bartenstein, Danielle Bochove, Luzi-Ann Javier, and Noris Soto

Lots of pictures in the orignal
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-04-09/the-bloody-grab-for-gold-in-venezuela-s-most-dangerous-town
 
Title: Stratfor: $2B ruling against Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 14, 2018, 09:43:09 AM
    Foreign creditors and companies will try to seize Venezuelan oil assets, including export terminals and refineries, as compensation for arbitration claims and missed payments.
    The seizure of certain Venezuelan energy export assets will cause the country's oil production and export revenue to plummet quickly.
    Venezuela's tenuous political position will worsen, and some ruling party officials might consider a heavier anti-corruption purge at the state-owned oil company or a negotiation with the United States for a transition of power as ways out of the rising instability.

Old disputes over the nationalization of its oil industry 11 years ago are coming back to haunt Venezuela and further threaten its political stability. In April, an arbitration panel at the International Chamber of Commerce ruled that state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) owed ConocoPhillips $2 billion for seizing the U.S. company's assets in 2007. Complicating matters for Venezuela's energy company, other creditors and private companies are also looking for compensation, including Canadian energy contractor SNC-Lavalin, which has sued PDVSA for missing a $25 million payment.
The Big Picture

Venezuela is in the middle of a major economic decline. The country depends almost entirely on oil for export revenue. Three and a half years of low oil prices and more than a decade of financial mismanagement have effectively destroyed the country's foreign currency reserves. Now, the country faces a new threat: A U.S. company to which it owes $2 billion may soon seize its key oil export terminals in the Caribbean.
See Commodities: A Cautionary Tale
See Venezuela's Unraveling

To prod PDVSA into paying the $2 billion it owes, ConocoPhillips sought court orders from Dutch authorities to freeze assets, including crude oil, at Caribbean export facilities owned by PDVSA. Courts with jurisdiction over Bonaire and St. Eustatius enforced two of the orders; a Curacao court has authorized a third order, according to reports on May 12. The move disrupted Venezuelan activity on the three Caribbean islands administered by the Netherlands, and PDVSA directed tankers away from them for fear that Dutch authorities would seize their cargoes.

The court orders eventually may allow ConocoPhillips to take control of key PDVSA assets in the Caribbean. The facilities include the Isla refinery on Curacao and storage facilities on St. Eustatius and Bonaire. Together, the refinery and terminals account for about 25 percent of Venezuelan crude oil and refined product exports.
A map shows the locations of PDVSA assets at risk of seizure

ConocoPhillips does not necessarily intend to keep the refinery and terminals. Instead, the U.S.-based company likely is exerting legal pressure to get compensation from PDVSA sooner rather than later. PDVSA is strapped for cash, and its oil production has declined by nearly 500,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd over the past year. Oil exports, which account for nearly all of the country's export revenue, will continue to drop. As a result, ConocoPhillips intends to be the first in line to get what PDVSA owes it before other creditors and companies seeking compensation from defaulted bonds or payments awarded by arbitration panels pile up.

But ConocoPhillips' aggressive approach may have domestic repercussions in Venezuela. If courts allow ConocoPhillips to take ownership of those Caribbean assets, PDVSA and the politicians who depend on its diminishing revenue to keep Venezuela stable will be in a bind. PDVSA's production already is declining because of labor shortages (caused by a decadelong brain drain and runaway inflation), extreme levels of graft, low foreign investment and a shortage of foreign financing. Losing assets at even one of the three Caribbean facilities would push PDVSA's export numbers even lower.

Such a loss would quickly turn into a major political problem for Venezuela. The government of President Nicolas Maduro is a confederation of officials interested in one thing: remaining in power. So far, the decline has been manageable for them. But a seizure of assets would exacerbate the country's economic crisis. In such a case, the most significant pressure on Caracas would be from its elites, not voters. Venezuelan leaders are not particularly responsive to the impact of the crisis on voters. Elections have been manipulated, and thousands of potential voters leave the country each month as the economic collapse worsens. But the prospect of rising, violent unrest among citizens losing access to food and basic utilities will be a concern. Losing access to oil revenue, both to line their own pockets and to keep political allies happy, will also be a risk some officials consider unacceptable.
A chart shows Venezuelan oil production

If ConocoPhillips successfully seizes Venezuelan oil export assets, confrontations between elites in the country likely will grow. Corruption through fraudulent imports and outright theft have sapped PDVSA of billions of dollars in revenue since the United Socialist Party of Venezuela began ruling. The prospect of governing over an increasingly unstable country with rapidly falling oil production may drive the government to try to purge PDVSA of egregiously corrupt officials. Unless such a purge is carefully coordinated and backed by the threat of incarceration or even violence, it will drive major internal political conflict.

Support may also grow among some ruling party officials for a negotiated settlement with the United States for a transition of power. This approach would allow Venezuelan officials to avoid heavier sanctions that would make the oil sector's recovery more difficult down the line. Some governing party figures may also feel they would benefit from a transition, since cutting a deal with Washington would be preferable to ruling a unstable, dilapidated state. But such talks would be complicated and involve dozens of key Venezuelan officials. And once started, there's no guarantee they would be fruitful.

Caracas faces a difficult path ahead. Instead of attempting politically dangerous anti-corruption purges or a complex negotiation, the government may opt to continue to rule over a declining country in an increasingly authoritarian manner. It's hardly the most favorable option — the crisis will only get worse before it gets better. But it's also the path of least resistance for the Maduro administration, and it may prove preferable to picking a fight with the elites who support his rule.
Title: Venezuelan Election this Sunday, May 20, 2018
Post by: DougMacG on May 18, 2018, 12:44:25 PM
From Denny S post: "Maduro faces a May 20 election with support from only about a fifth of the population and he is turning over swathes of the economy to the 160,000-member military, the strongest power in a failing state. Active and retired officers hold 14 of 32 cabinet posts. Soldiers have replaced many of the 80 state oil company leaders whom Maduro has imprisoned since August. The ports have been militarized and the Defense Ministry oversees the hungry nation’s food supply."

My recollection of a Chavez election some years ago that Jimmy Carter "observed" and George W Bush "certified" was that he had 40-60 support and 'won' 60-40.  If Maduro has 20% support, he will probably declare an 80-20 'win' - with a little back office tally manipulation. (?)

Or is whoever is in charge, the military, going to actually hold an honest election?

We already know the answer to that is no.  "Officials from the United Nations, the U.S., the European Union and Venezuela's neighbors have already denounced Caracas' forthcoming presidential election as a sham."
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/18/venezuela-election-heres-everything-you-need-to-know.html

George Bush was nowhere to be found then, will Trump speak up now?  Does anyone there want anyone from the outside to do something?  Is there anything that anyone can do to make the real vote count?
-------------
I will dedicate my life to fixing the economy of this country .. ” Maduro told a crowd of red-shirted supporters at his rally, saying he had been loyal to Chavez’s legacy during his first term.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-election/venezuelas-maduro-gets-support-from-erdogan-maradona-ahead-of-vote-idUSKCN1II2LX

You WHAT?!  What does a "fix" look like to a socialist destructionist?
-------------
Odd bedfellows.  Our wonderful (sarc) NATO ally Erdogan is endorsing Maduro.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-election/venezuelas-maduro-gets-support-from-erdogan-maradona-ahead-of-vote-idUSKCN1II2LX

No mention of whether he endorses him to win or to cheat?
------------
Looking forward to our on-the-scene update...
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 18, 2018, 01:40:52 PM
World's largest oil reserves under socialist control in action , , ,   :cry: :cry: :cry:
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on May 18, 2018, 02:26:53 PM
World's largest oil reserves under socialist control in action , , ,   :cry: :cry: :cry:

Any comment from Bernie Sanders on this? Perhaps he could explain what went wrong.
Title: Re: Venezuela "Election"
Post by: DougMacG on May 21, 2018, 09:18:22 AM
The US through Pompeo and Pence called it a sham.  
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-elections-nicolas-maduro-dismissed-by-us-donald-trump-admin-as-sham/

Opposition leaders are in jail or left the country?  Opposition voters boycotted?  I predicted a false 80-20 win.  Declared result was 68-21.  I don't get the strategy of either side there.  As Denny S says, it's just military rule.  1300 Generals if I recall correctly.  But what's the fun of ruling rather than re-building?  Was no write in allowed?  Was the name Henri Falcón on the ballot worse than Maduro?  Did he really win and they lie?  No one wants US intervention or help from anywhere else or it's not possible?  Another 6 year term for Maduro.

If we could put aside the humanitarian disaster, this would just serve as proof of the disaster of these economic policies - "in what was once Latin America's wealthiest nation". Confiscation of capital investments failed. Equality failed. Wealth is gone.  Poor and working people hurt hardest.  Freedom is gone, replaced by coercion.  Now democracy is gone.

But we can't put the humanitarian disaster aside.  People are hungry and people are fleeing, destabilizing other countries.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/28/world/americas/venezuela-brazil-migrants.html
https://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2018/03/13/fleeing-crisis-venezuelans-seek-refuge-neighboring-countries/

There is nothing anyone on the inside or the outside can do?  Even though they hold Americans?  #JoshHolt
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/17/josh-holt-american-in-venezuela-prison-riot-pleads-for-help-in-video/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.42d702a32a6a

My two cents to the Venezuelan opposition, the US did not free itself from non-consensual rule without assistance from the outside.

My take on the cold war in Poland, five Popes taught how to find inner strength under oppression.  Then one Polish Pope stepped up and played a role standing up to the oppressors.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28398-2005Apr5.html
Venezuela is 71% Catholic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Venezuela  Latin American Pope Francis is silent or impotent?  Too preoccupied with fighting capitalism and global warming?
(https://www.americamagazine.org/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_750_x_503_/public/main_image/venezuela_pope.jpg.png?itok=mL02oIOU)
https://www.catholicculture.org/commentary/otn.cfm?id=1234

Leftists here still favor the Venezuelan model?
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-down-on-socialist-failure

Or do our Leftists favor the benevolent kind of socialism and oppression, the fictional kind?  Not where it leads every time it's tried in the real world - to tyranny and economic failure.
http://oll.libertyfund.org/quote/273
Title: Maduro and Cuba
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 21, 2018, 12:43:52 PM
http://www.aei.org/publication/ahead-of-sham-elections-maduro-favors-cuba/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWTJVeVpEUTJPRFl6T1dWbCIsInQiOiJ4ZHlqV3N6dkpqUEdGVHFIeUZUU0FpUlFYdEg4TDFBVnZENHI3T1ExXC9JcngzZ2hGWGNQNnhEUWNLV0R0NTBqV1wvdnBZNTdzNzhzSzRPdHdaWkZoaGR6UzVrdHY5RnpFMlRzbDE0dDlVcXFRRXd0ZHJ6UTNQSU0yN0tVU011eGlFIn0%3D
Title: GPF: Why Venezuela can't be more like Colombia
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 22, 2018, 10:52:49 AM
Why Venezuela Can’t Be Like Colombia
May 22, 2018
By Allison Fedirka

In 2013, Nicolas Maduro succeeded Hugo Chavez as president of Venezuela. In the ensuing five years, Maduro relied on populism, much like his predecessor did, while driving Venezuela’s economy to ruin. And yet he secured a second term over the weekend.

Just next door is Colombia, a country that stands out in South America for not having had a left-wing populist leader in over three decades. It also has an economy poised to challenge Argentina as the second-largest on the continent. With all that Colombia and Venezuela share, geographically and historically, this divergence is striking.

The Paradox of Plenty

The Colombia-Venezuela border is one of the few places in South America without geographic barriers delineating national boundaries. To the north, they share a sliver of lowlands. Both have expansive shores along the Caribbean Sea. Just south, the Andes extend from Colombia into Venezuela. Below that, the Orinoco Basin stretches from southeastern Colombia into central Venezuela. Their geographic similarities create an expectation that they would have similar natural advantages and disadvantages.
 
(click to enlarge)

Except that Venezuela has a lot of oil. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that at 307 billion barrels, Venezuela has the most reserves in the world. It funded the country’s economic development in the 20th century and into the 21st century. The oil business was so profitable that by the end of the 1920s, less profitable activities – even essential ones like agriculture – started to wither away. Today, the government depends on oil for about half its revenue.

More than that, the government depends on oil for its own popularity. When oil prices are high, as they were early in Chavez’s presidency, populist measures like high welfare spending are manageable. But when prices crash, they can bring down governments. The low prices of the ‘80s necessitated the austerity of the ‘90s, which Chavez capitalized on just as prices were rebounding. In mid-2014, just over a year after Chavez’s death (Maduro was his vice president), oil prices started to fall, and Venezuela has been unstable ever since.

Colombia was not blessed with Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves (though it has modest reserves of its own), something that forced the country to diversify. To help industrialize the country, the government resorted to import substitution, a policy in which the government heavily subsidizes and protects domestic industries from more advanced foreign competition so that they can grow. Industrialization and, later, services became a large part of the Colombian economy, but unlike in Venezuela, they didn’t drown out other economic activities. In addition to its modest oil reserves, Colombia has some of the largest coal deposits in the world and arable land capable of growing cash crops like coffee. Furthermore, oil didn’t become lucrative for Colombia until the 1980s. The absence of major discoveries in recent years has kept oil an important part of Colombia’s economy but never induced the government to abandon a more balanced approach to economic development.

Experiences With Colonialism

Besides their differences in natural resources, Colombia and Venezuela had vastly different experiences under Spanish colonialism, which shaped their respective visions for independence. Both Venezuela and Colombia were part of Spain’s New Granada colony. (And then, for a little over a decade, present-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama formed the independent country of Gran Colombia.) In the latter half of the 18th century, Spain decided to divide its American holdings into smaller organizational territories to more efficiently govern and exploit the colonies. Venezuela was given more autonomy and military authority. And because Venezuela’s location makes it one of the first major points of contact with incoming ships on the Atlantic, it had more contact with Europe than other colonies. Colombia, meanwhile, was primarily used as a source of gold and other commodities bound for Spain. Its riches were heavily exploited, its outside interactions were more limited, and it had less autonomy than its neighbor to the east.

The initial fight for independence began with a military junta in Caracas and revolved around Simon Bolivar’s vision for a pan-American state. Bolivar’s political model combined monarchy, republicanism and federalism in an attempt to find the right balance between control, stability and unity. He feared that introducing too much liberty to uneducated masses would result in anarchy and thus believed in the necessity of a strong central authority. These were the views of a man raised in the Caracas elite. On the flip side, Colombia generally favored federalism immediately after independence, calculating that centralized control was too similar to the central control of Spain.
After independence, Colombia endured more than a century of disruptive competition between its liberals and conservatives. During a period known as La Violencia (1946-1958), political violence displaced the rural poor, who took up arms to try to defend themselves from constant aggression. These initial rural uprisings gave way to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and started a domestic conflict that would last over 50 years. Since then, the Colombian government has focused primarily on bringing peace to the country. This is a cause that transcends political parties and therefore has stifled extremism and prevented left-wing populists from arising.
Venezuela was living with its own kind of violence. In its first decades of independence, various strongmen fought for the right to rule. This culminated in the dictatorship of Juan Vicente Gomez from 1908 until his death in 1935. The next 15 years featured a series of coup attempts as political activists tried to introduce democracy to the country. Democracy was finally established in Venezuela in 1958, and since then, the staying power of any government has been intricately linked to the performance of the economy, which essentially means oil prices.

Despite their comparable geography and similar origins, forces guided both Caracas and Bogota toward economic management and political structures that are very different from one another. Venezuela has been set in a cycle of boom or bust with its problems buried too deep – both in its history and quite literally underground. Meanwhile, Colombia’s need to bring about domestic political stability after decades of infighting and to seek a more measured approach to economic development has created a comparatively less volatile political and economic system.

The post Why Venezuela Can’t Be Like Colombia appeared first on Geopolitical Futures.

Title: Venezuela's Economic Collapse Is Linked to Its Socialist Policies
Post by: DougMacG on June 08, 2018, 01:40:00 PM
Venezuela's Economic Collapse Is Linked to Its Socialist Policies
https://fee.org/articles/venezuelas-economic-collapse-is-linked-to-its-socialist-policies/

[Yes, what else could it have been?]

The "Wrong Turn" Started Before Chávez
--------------------
"The insight that price controls lead to shortages is GCSE-level economics. The insight that a predatory government, which randomly confiscates private property, deters economic activity, is not even economics at all—it is just common sense. Nor does it take a lot of imagination to see that a rapid expansion of public spending programs increases the scope for corruption, patronage, and nepotism."
...
The problems started before oil prices crashed:
Chavismo created constant shortages of consumer goods, including basic essentials. As early as 2007, when the oil boom was in full swing, the Washington Post reported:  "Meat cuts vanished from Venezuelan supermarkets this week, leaving only unsavory bits like chicken feet, while costly artificial sweeteners have increasingly replaced sugar…Chavez’s administration blames…unscrupulous speculators, but industry officials say government price controls […] are responsible."

Shortages have sporadically appeared with items from milk to coffee since early 2003, when Chavez began regulating prices for 400 basic products.
Title: How Venezuela Struck it poor
Post by: DougMacG on July 24, 2018, 04:28:00 AM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/16/how-venezuela-struck-it-poor-oil-energy-chavez/

For those who think all businesses should be non-profit and not for profit, this is a great story?
Title: POTB (WaPo) From lawyer to prositute
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2018, 10:19:14 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/world/wp/2018/07/27/feature/as-venezuela-crumbles-its-fleeing-citizens-are-becoming-latin-americas-new-underclass/?noredirect=on
Title: Re: POTB (WaPo) From lawyer to prositute
Post by: DougMacG on August 03, 2018, 06:40:31 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/world/wp/2018/07/27/feature/as-venezuela-crumbles-its-fleeing-citizens-are-becoming-latin-americas-new-underclass/?noredirect=on

Washington Post, I hate to say it, this is great reporting.  Horrible story!! And it is ongoing, only going to get worse.

I would like to send an American team down there, Sanders, Warren,  Ocasio, Ellison, Harris. One way.

From the article: "They include victims like Luz — who said she lost one of her three children in April after the hospital in her Venezuelan town ran out of medication to treat her daughter’s bacterial infection."

Socialized Medicine. Literally.  Group mentioned above include Venezuela in the countries that have better health care that us.  Really?
Title: WSJ: Monetary chaos in Caracas
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 20, 2018, 07:13:13 AM
Monetary Chaos in Caracas
Maduro’s decrees and devaluation produce a financial meltdown.
A man counts money to buy popsicles during a protest of healthcare workers in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 16.
A man counts money to buy popsicles during a protest of healthcare workers in Caracas, Venezuela, Aug. 16. Photo: miguel gutierrez/epa-efe/rex/shu/EPA/Shutterstock
74 Comments
By The Editorial Board
Aug. 19, 2018 6:45 p.m. ET

This promises to be quite a week in Venezuela. President Nicolás Maduro is rolling out his economic recuperation plan, which is supposed to rescue the once-wealthy nation from the economic damage that socialism has delivered. But on the evidence of the plan Mr. Maduro announced Friday, Venezuela could be in for a monetary meltdown.
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The main feature of the Maduro plan is a giant devaluation. The new fixed rate for what he calls the “strong bolivar” is 6,000,000 to the dollar. The preferential price from the central bank had been 4,000,000 to the dollar. If all those zeros make your head spin, fear not. On Tuesday the government will launch a new currency, the “sovereign bolivar.” It will contain five fewer zeros, so it will be pegged at 60 to the dollar.

As monetary face-lifts go, this looks like a back-alley job. Venezuela is in the throes of a hyperinflation that economist Steve Hanke says has surged to another all-time high of 61,463% on an annual basis. The International Monetary Fund says inflation could reach 1,000,000% this year. The new bolivar rate, which is closer to the black market rate, is an attempt to stop the price spiral and restore confidence in the currency.

The problem is that the same people will be running the central bank, and they’ll still answer to Mr. Maduro, who on Friday also decreed an increase in the minimum wage of 6,000%. For those holding the ID card of Mr. Maduro’s United Socialist Party, the government will pay a bonus equivalent to 600,000 old bolivars. Perhaps the money to pay for the bonus will come from printing more bolivars.

Mr. Maduro also declared that there will be a nationwide price freeze, date uncertain. Venezuelan businesses have been laboring under price controls for years, but there have been mechanisms for small adjustments. It isn’t clear how strict the new price controls will be, but good luck to businesses trying to pay the new minimum wages when they can’t raise prices.

Even Mr. Maduro seems to understand that this is a problem, so he has declared that the government will pay the wage increases for small- and medium-size businesses for 90 days. Some of that cash will come from raising the value-added tax in September to 16% from 12%, if there’s much of anything left of the economy beyond the black market.

Not surprisingly, hyperinflation has led to an acute shortage of cash to perform even basic transactions. Gasoline stations, buses and many informal markets require cash, but small change is difficult to find. Adjustments under the new currency using old bills will mean sharp price increases for everyday business.

All of this adds up to a full-blown financial panic and the breakdown of economic order. Mr. Maduro has destroyed confidence in the country’s institutions and currency, and his new plan will make it worse. The only way to stop the descent into chaos might be to dollarize the economy. Meantime, be prepared for the worst as the people and capital of a degraded nation flee the wages of socialism.
Title: GPF
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 20, 2018, 11:04:07 AM
second post of the day

•   Brazil deployed soldiers and extra police to quell riots in Brazil against Venezuelan refugee camps, while Ecuador attempted to stem the tide of Venezuelan migrants by enforcing new entry requirements.
Title: Re: Venezuela, now it's dry taps
Post by: DougMacG on August 28, 2018, 08:45:29 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-27/life-without-water-sweaty-smelly-and-furious-in-caracas

I can't help but think of Denny S there when I read reports of deteriorating conditions.  Hope you are well. Always appreciate your thoughts and observations.
---------------'
Does anyone know what the political path is out of this?  Is there any new clarity in hindsight?  These policies cause these results. We already knew that, right?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on August 28, 2018, 09:20:50 AM
"Does anyone know what the political path is out of this?  Is there any new clarity in hindsight?  These policies cause these results. We already knew that, right?"

well everyone not connected to the military could simply leave and then they would not have their slaves to their bidding

or other S American countries could arm the refugees who might then go back and blast the slave owners out of power.

I don't know that we should arm them like Brock and Billiary did in Libya.

Of course if the refugees start making their way up to our border (likely) we may have to
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2018, 07:39:43 AM
Given the spectacular collapse of Venezuela, the question of "What next?  What to do?" is front and center.

What should America do?


Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on August 31, 2018, 03:51:00 PM
Given the spectacular collapse of Venezuela, the question of "What next?  What to do?" is front and center.

What should America do?

As long as they don't want our help the answer is do nothing. Watch it burn. That is morally wrong to me.

If they want our help, it would have been nice to get that request a long time ago when it would have cost much less.

What we should not do is throw our money into their failure. It has to be total reform with a plan for success.

We should issue a very public offer  out of the Heritage Freedom index ratings. You restore individual freedoms Etc and we offer some kind of a bridge through this catastrophe. Maybe Castro or Putin can offer refuge for Maduro and his thugs and the G7 can put together a financing package.

As things stand, they aren't going to accept any offer from us other than kleptocracy cash.

If I understand Denny correctly, the military runs the country. If so, make the offer to them, here are all the hoops you'll need to jump through and at the end of it you Will Survive, begin to prosper and be a US ally in good standing.

None of this solves the underlying problem. The rulers aren't going to give up power just because the subjects are suffering, and we have no justification to go to war. The human tragedy goes on...
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 31, 2018, 04:33:07 PM
Given the spectacular collapse of Venezuela, the question of "What next?  What to do?" is front and center.

What should America do?

As long as they don't want our help the answer is do nothing. Watch it burn. That is morally wrong to me.

If they want our help, it would have been nice to get that request a long time ago when it would have cost much less.

What we should not do is throw our money into their failure. It has to be total reform with a plan for success.

We should issue a very public offer  out of the Heritage Freedom index ratings. You restore individual freedoms Etc and we offer some kind of a bridge through this catastrophe. Maybe Castro or Putin can offer refuge for Maduro and his thugs and the G7 can put together a financing package.

As things stand, they aren't going to accept any offer from us other than kleptocracy cash.

If I understand Denny correctly, the military runs the country. If so, make the offer to them, here are all the hoops you'll need to jump through and at the end of it you Will Survive, begin to prosper and be a US ally in good standing.

None of this solves the underlying problem. The rulers aren't going to give up power just because the subjects are suffering, and we have no justification to go to war. The human tragedy goes on...

This is what they voted for. Let them burn.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2018, 05:00:48 PM
I wonder about MILLIONS of refugees streaming north , , , 
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on August 31, 2018, 05:34:02 PM
I wonder about MILLIONS of refugees streaming north , , , 

The wall. Land mines can fill the gap until it’s completed.

Title: GPF: Deep Dive on Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 07, 2018, 07:15:53 AM
Coping With Venezuelan Migration
Sep 6, 2018
By Allison Fedirka

Summary

For years there have been stories from Venezuela about food shortages, import cuts and dwindling international reserves. The Venezuelan economy has crumbled before our eyes. President Nicolas Maduro’s downfall has been a question of when, not if. We’re still waiting for the collapse, but Venezuela has finally reached a tipping point.
Initially, when the formal market failed, an informal market appeared to fill the void. Where bartering and the black market couldn’t meet basic needs, people would cross into other countries like Colombia to buy what they needed before crossing back. As goods became scarcer and income fell, people stopped coming back. Many opted to go to Colombia, while those with the will and the means frequently opted for faraway places like the United States or southern Europe.

In the past year, the informal market has apparently started to fail too. A June 2018 survey by Venezuela’s Consultores 21 found that Venezuelans of every social standing and political persuasion want to leave the country. It found that 54 percent of the upper-middle class and 43 percent from the lower class want to emigrate, as well as 66 percent of Chavistas, 63 percent of supporters of the Democratic Unity Roundtable opposition coalition and 58 percent of other opposition supporters. Even 17 percent of Maduristas, the president’s loyalists, expressed a desire to leave. Leaving is no longer just for the opposition or the wealthy.

Venezuelans’ hope for their country’s future is fading too. A strong opposition majority elected to the National Assembly in December 2015, combined with massive protests and rallies throughout 2016, failed to affect real change. Protests still occur, but not of the same magnitude as before. Since 2015, approximately 2.3 million people (7 percent of the population) have emigrated, according to an International Organization for Migration report, and most of those left in the past year. What matters now isn’t what this means for Venezuela – the answer to that question has been obvious for some time – but what it means for the South American countries now trying to cope with Venezuela’s migration crisis.

This Deep Dive will identify the countries experiencing the greatest disruption and explain how their governments are responding. It will then examine the broader problems affecting all affected countries – health risks, the job market, the costs of government responses and the political repercussions of mass migration. Finally, it’ll provide an overview of the challenges ahead. Ultimately, we aren’t optimistic about the abilities of these governments to coordinate a response, and though some will fare better on their own than others, every country for itself isn’t a recipe for a stable region in the future.

Regional Impact

International Organization for Migration data shows that of the 697,500 Venezuelans who left the country in 2015, 73 percent went to the U.S., Canada or southern Europe (Spain, Italy or Portugal). These were the ideal destinations for people who could afford to get there. But in the past two years, as the situation has reached a breaking point and the profile of those wanting to get out has broadened, the acceptable destinations have gotten much closer – putting South America at the center of the migration crisis.

Of the 1.64 million Venezuelans who left the country in 2017, 53 percent stayed in South America. The advantages of South American countries are their proximity, the relatively low cost of travel, their common language (save Brazil), their lower cost of living compared to the U.S. or Europe, and the fact that they have large informal economies, enabling immigrants to jump immediately into work.

But the South American countries suddenly facing an influx of Venezuelan migrants were overwhelmed. Over the past few years, the regional rhetoric against the Maduro regime has increased, but little concrete action was taken. Critics feared making things worse inside the country and the dangerous precedent that would come with supporting the removal of another leader in the region. But the flood of Venezuelans into other South American countries is putting a large political and economic strain on those countries that cannot be ignored.

Colombia

At the start of Venezuela’s economic downturn, neighboring Colombia was a place for struggling Venezuelans to go to buy goods that were scarce at home. People would cross the border for the day or the weekend into towns like Cucuta and then return home. As the situation worsened, they stopped returning home.

Colombia is now the largest destination for Venezuelan migrants and is a transit country along the way to South America’s west coast. The government has started sounding the alarm bells. The problem is the sheer volume of immigrants. Colombia’s director of migration reported that at the end of 2017, the country had more than 550,000 Venezuelans. Just six months later, he said the figure had risen to 870,093, accounting for 1.7 percent of Colombia’s population.
 
(click to enlarge)

By 2016, the Colombian government was already taking administrative measures such as a wildly unsuccessful border mobility card system to track the movement of Venezuelans. By 2017, Bogota had installed new border control checkpoints and introduced a Special Permit of Permanence, or PEP system, to help normalize the legal status of Venezuelans entering the country. Once they have legal status, Venezuelan migrants can work and access social services. In July, about 381,700 had some type of legal status. Just before leaving office in August, President Juan Manuel Santos signed a decree to normalize an additional 442,000 Venezuelans and bring them into the PEP system. Though Colombia is coping, the foreign minister made it clear that his country can’t take the lead on a migration crisis and that Colombia would seek help from the international community.

Brazil

Brazil is a melting pot of immigrants, but even it was unprepared for the recent flood of Venezuelans. What started as a trickle into the state of Roraima around 2015 became a deluge in 2017. That year, the number of Venezuelans entering Roraima increased sevenfold to 35,000. From Jan. 1 to June 22, 2018, the Brazilian Federal Police received 16,953 applications for refugee status. Of those, 16,523 – more than 97 percent – were from Venezuelans. This is more than 20 percent higher than the total number of requests from Venezuelans for all of 2017 (13,583). Brazil’s Federal Police estimate that there are now at least 50,000 Venezuelans in Brazil. Half of them are in Roraima’s capital, Boa Vista, where they represent 7.5 percent of the city’s 332,000 inhabitants.
 
(click to enlarge)

In need of a government response, Brazil’s National Council of Immigration issued a resolution in March 2017 that permitted Venezuelans to apply for two-year temporary residency and eliminated migratory fees for people in need. In February 2018, President Michel Temer declared Roraima to be in a state of vulnerability because of immigration and increased the number of border guards to 170. In April, the government implemented its acclimation and relocation program, which provides legal status for Venezuelans in the country as well as medical exams, vaccinations, access to public health care, schooling for children, language courses and job training. In August, the government started trying to limit the entrance of Venezuelans through visa checks and additional military deployments to the border.

Peru

Peru, which boasts one of the most stable economies in South America, is an increasingly popular destination among Venezuelans. Many enter in the northwest through Ecuador and stay, while others continue on to Chile. In 2015, there were only 433 requests for refugee status in Peru. In 2016 and 2017, the government received a total of around 34,000 requests. And 2018 is on pace to rocket past those figures – to date, there are an average of 14,000 applications per month. In July 2018, the country’s National Superintendence of Migration reported that there were 368,000 Venezuelans in Peru and that as many as 46,000 had entered the country in 2018 alone. The foreign minister said at the end of August that there were now over 400,000 Venezuelans in the country.

The Peruvian government has had to move quickly to catch up with the influx of immigrants. In August 2017, the National Superintendence of Migration announced that it would activate a hotline to organize the issuance of temporary permits of permanence (a program started in January) to Venezuelans who had entered the country. The measure allowed Venezuelans to normalize their legal status, work legally, access social services, get a tax ID number and integrate into the tax system. This proved inadequate, and over the past year officials set up extra facial and fingerprint recognition systems along the border, revamped websites related to immigration services, and set up screening and processing modules throughout Lima, with plans to add 10 more throughout the country. Finally, on Aug. 25, the government said a passport would be required for entry in the hope that it will help stem the flow of immigrants.

Ecuador

Located between Peru and Colombia, Ecuador has mostly been used as a transit country. Since 2016, however, there has been a marked increase in Venezuelans living in the country’s central provinces. The National Secretariat of Communication reported that from January through August this year, 641,353 Venezuelans entered Ecuador. Of those, 525,663 left for other South American destinations. In other words, 115,690 – just under 20 percent – remain in Ecuador.
 
(click to enlarge)

Ecuador’s government was not prepared for more Venezuelans to stay in the country. Ecuadorian law provides temporary residence for those who can prove economic solvency and come from a member of the Union of South American Nations, meaning that Venezuelans with the means can automatically stay for two years. The government has now started taking steps to control the flow of Venezuelans. It has organized bus trips to bring Venezuelans from their point of entry down south to Peru. The government also tried changing the law so that Venezuelans would need to show passports to enter – currently, they need only to show national IDs – but that was overruled by a court. Ecuador has not ruled out instituting some type of quota system.

Common Challenges

The sudden arrival of hundreds of thousands of desperate people poses unique challenges for each South American country, but some challenges are shared. The health risks that accompany mass migration rank as the most immediate concern among these governments. Basic sanitation is a serious issue. Many of the cities around entry points to these countries were not built to handle an influx of tens of thousands of people. The Ecuadorian and Peruvian governments declared localized states of emergency in areas of high migration to facilitate the allocation and delivery of government resources to these areas. Brazil has been sending extra doctors to Roraima since 2017. A secondary concern is the potential for disease to spread. Earlier this year, there was a measles outbreak in Venezuela. The Pan American Health Organization’s July update for measles said there are now 2,472 confirmed cases, up 45 percent from June, in 11 American countries. Venezuela accounts for 1,613 of the cases, and Brazil ranks second with 677. These two countries also accounted for over 92 percent of the new cases reported. Governments risk backlash from local populations if they are seen as being unresponsive to major health risks in the general populace.

There are also potential economic consequences. The biggest concern is labor. Informal labor markets are large in these countries: They serve as major revenue sources for the local population, but they also account for 70 percent of the work that Venezuelans find upon arrival in a new country, according to the International Organization for Migration. Job competition in the informal market is a concern, as is the suppression of wages in formal employment sectors. Many Venezuelan emigrants have university degrees or technical training. Though these concerns exist throughout the region, they are especially pronounced in Peru.

Another economic concern for governments is the cost of supporting mass immigration. Even basic operations such as providing security, administrative processing and sanitation measures at border crossings are expensive. Relocation programs, job training and health care for tens of thousands of people is even more so. Brazil still has not fully recovered from its 2015-16 recession, and the government has been struggling for the past two years to reduce spending. Ecuador is in the midst of recovering from low oil prices and transitioning the economy from high levels of government intervention to more open market conditions. And with so few resources to go around, governments must answer tough questions from voters about why so much is being spent on Venezuelans when the native poor populations have so much need for financial sustenance.
 
(click to enlarge)

Finally, there are the domestic political questions, which will vary for each country. Immigration is by nature a divisive issue. In the case of Venezuelan immigration, anti-immigrant sentiment and political instability will start in border locations with high concentrations of immigrants. Venezuelan immigration has had a huge impact on Brazilian politics, made stronger by the fact that there are elections in October. Tensions were already high between Roraima and the federal government. The state believes the federal government has not provided enough assistance. It also resents the fact that the courts denied its request to close the border with Venezuela. And the immigration debate ties into the national debate about the role of the military in society.

Courses of Action

For the affected countries, the solution involves managing the migration flow rather than trying to bring about regime change in Venezuela. In the short term, regime change would have the opposite of the desired effect. It’s a messy affair when governments fall – transition periods are chaotic, and there is always the rebuilding phase. Regime change would motivate people to leave and wait for stability to be restored before returning home. Moreover, are reluctant to use force to depose a leader out of fear that it would set a precedent that could one day turn against them. And the affected countries lack the spare resources and public support for such action anyway. For now, at least, governments will pursue solutions on the domestic level first.

Before taking any decisive measures, one major challenge must be overcome: figuring out the size and scope of the migration issue. Massive amounts of data need to be processed to track who enters and exits – often at different locations. In the case of irregular migration, it may take several months to estimate those figures. Many of the national institutions charged with this task were not designed to deal with issues of this magnitude. Peru’s immigration services are still processing temporary permits of permanence from 2017. Colombia and Peru exchanged basic data on registered Venezuelans, only to discover that some individuals were registered in both countries and reaping the benefits from both. All four countries have resorted to executive decrees to expedite the status of migrants, deploy security forces and/or free up other resources related to humanitarian aid.

Affected countries met on Tuesday to exchange ideas and assess the problem. They called for countries to find means to continue accepting Venezuelans, but joint statements won’t solve the problem. Each country has very different capacities to absorb new populations. Brazil is a huge country capable of accepting large numbers of people and with a long track record of integrating foreigners. This is not the case for Ecuador, which is about 30 times smaller than Brazil and has one-eighth the population. And the lack of any existing regional framework severely limits the ability to take a regional approach toward addressing Venezuelan migration. The urgency of the situation does not allow for time to be spent crafting such a framework.

Most important, each country will put its national interests ahead of regional cooperation. No country in the region can single-handedly absorb all the Venezuelan emigrants, nor is there a country that can foot the bill for supporting programs in neighboring countries. Cooperation will occur where it suits national interests, provided it doesn’t bind countries to specific courses of action. Where it will be easy for the region to find common ground is in the call for international support – ideally from a multilateral group like the United Nations – and aid to help mitigate the effects of the migration wave.

The post Coping With Venezuelan Migration appeared first on Geopolitical Futures.





Title: GPF: Coping with Venezuelan Migration
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 16, 2018, 07:39:08 AM

Coping With Venezuelan Migration

South American countries are ill-prepared to deal with the influx of more people.
Deep Dive

Allison Fedirka |September 6, 2018

Summary

For years there have been stories from Venezuela about food shortages, import cuts and dwindling international reserves. The Venezuelan economy has crumbled before our eyes. President Nicolas Maduro’s downfall has been a question of when, not if. We’re still waiting for the collapse, but Venezuela has finally reached a tipping point.

Initially, when the formal market failed, an informal market appeared to fill the void. Where bartering and the black market couldn’t meet basic needs, people would cross into other countries like Colombia to buy what they needed before crossing back. As goods became scarcer and income fell, people stopped coming back. Many opted to go to Colombia, while those with the will and the means frequently opted for faraway places like the United States or southern Europe.

In the past year, the informal market has apparently started to fail too. A June 2018 survey by Venezuela’s Consultores 21 found that Venezuelans of every social standing and political persuasion want to leave the country. It found that 54 percent of the upper-middle class and 43 percent from the lower class want to emigrate, as well as 66 percent of Chavistas, 63 percent of supporters of the Democratic Unity Roundtable opposition coalition and 58 percent of other opposition supporters. Even 17 percent of Maduristas, the president’s loyalists, expressed a desire to leave. Leaving is no longer just for the opposition or the wealthy.

Venezuelans’ hope for their country’s future is fading too. A strong opposition majority elected to the National Assembly in December 2015, combined with massive protests and rallies throughout 2016, failed to affect real change. Protests still occur, but not of the same magnitude as before. Since 2015, approximately 2.3 million people (7 percent of the population) have emigrated, according to an International Organization for Migration report, and most of those left in the past year. What matters now isn’t what this means for Venezuela – the answer to that question has been obvious for some time – but what it means for the South American countries now trying to cope with Venezuela’s migration crisis.

This Deep Dive will identify the countries experiencing the greatest disruption and explain how their governments are responding. It will then examine the broader problems affecting all affected countries – health risks, the job market, the costs of government responses and the political repercussions of mass migration. Finally, it’ll provide an overview of the challenges ahead. Ultimately, we aren’t optimistic about the abilities of these governments to coordinate a response, and though some will fare better on their own than others, every country for itself isn’t a recipe for a stable region in the future.

Regional Impact

International Organization for Migration data shows that of the 697,500 Venezuelans who left the country in 2015, 73 percent went to the U.S., Canada or southern Europe (Spain, Italy or Portugal). These were the ideal destinations for people who could afford to get there. But in the past two years, as the situation has reached a breaking point and the profile of those wanting to get out has broadened, the acceptable destinations have gotten much closer – putting South America at the center of the migration crisis.

Of the 1.64 million Venezuelans who left the country in 2017, 53 percent stayed in South America. The advantages of South American countries are their proximity, the relatively low cost of travel, their common language (save Brazil), their lower cost of living compared to the U.S. or Europe, and the fact that they have large informal economies, enabling immigrants to jump immediately into work.

But the South American countries suddenly facing an influx of Venezuelan migrants were overwhelmed. Over the past few years, the regional rhetoric against the Maduro regime has increased, but little concrete action was taken. Critics feared making things worse inside the country and the dangerous precedent that would come with supporting the removal of another leader in the region. But the flood of Venezuelans into other South American countries is putting a large political and economic strain on those countries that cannot be ignored.

Colombia
At the start of Venezuela’s economic downturn, neighboring Colombia was a place for struggling Venezuelans to go to buy goods that were scarce at home. People would cross the border for the day or the weekend into towns like Cucuta and then return home. As the situation worsened, they stopped returning home.

Colombia is now the largest destination for Venezuelan migrants and is a transit country along the way to South America’s west coast. The government has started sounding the alarm bells. The problem is the sheer volume of immigrants. Colombia’s director of migration reported that at the end of 2017, the country had more than 550,000 Venezuelans. Just six months later, he said the figure had risen to 870,093, accounting for 1.7 percent of Colombia’s population.

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By 2016, the Colombian government was already taking administrative measures such as a wildly unsuccessful border mobility card system to track the movement of Venezuelans. By 2017, Bogota had installed new border control checkpoints and introduced a Special Permit of Permanence, or PEP system, to help normalize the legal status of Venezuelans entering the country. Once they have legal status, Venezuelan migrants can work and access social services. In July, about 381,700 had some type of legal status. Just before leaving office in August, President Juan Manuel Santos signed a decree to normalize an additional 442,000 Venezuelans and bring them into the PEP system. Though Colombia is coping, the foreign minister made it clear that his country can’t take the lead on a migration crisis and that Colombia would seek help from the international community.

Brazil

Brazil is a melting pot of immigrants, but even it was unprepared for the recent flood of Venezuelans. What started as a trickle into the state of Roraima around 2015 became a deluge in 2017. That year, the number of Venezuelans entering Roraima increased sevenfold to 35,000. From Jan. 1 to June 22, 2018, the Brazilian Federal Police received 16,953 applications for refugee status. Of those, 16,523 – more than 97 percent – were from Venezuelans. This is more than 20 percent higher than the total number of requests from Venezuelans for all of 2017 (13,583). Brazil’s Federal Police estimate that there are now at least 50,000 Venezuelans in Brazil. Half of them are in Roraima’s capital, Boa Vista, where they represent 7.5 percent of the city’s 332,000 inhabitants.

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In need of a government response, Brazil’s National Council of Immigration issued a resolution in March 2017 that permitted Venezuelans to apply for two-year temporary residency and eliminated migratory fees for people in need. In February 2018, President Michel Temer declared Roraima to be in a state of vulnerability because of immigration and increased the number of border guards to 170. In April, the government implemented its acclimation and relocation program, which provides legal status for Venezuelans in the country as well as medical exams, vaccinations, access to public health care, schooling for children, language courses and job training. In August, the government started trying to limit the entrance of Venezuelans through visa checks and additional military deployments to the border.

Peru

Peru, which boasts one of the most stable economies in South America, is an increasingly popular destination among Venezuelans. Many enter in the northwest through Ecuador and stay, while others continue on to Chile. In 2015, there were only 433 requests for refugee status in Peru. In 2016 and 2017, the government received a total of around 34,000 requests. And 2018 is on pace to rocket past those figures – to date, there are an average of 14,000 applications per month. In July 2018, the country’s National Superintendence of Migration reported that there were 368,000 Venezuelans in Peru and that as many as 46,000 had entered the country in 2018 alone. The foreign minister said at the end of August that there were now over 400,000 Venezuelans in the country.

The Peruvian government has had to move quickly to catch up with the influx of immigrants. In August 2017, the National Superintendence of Migration announced that it would activate a hotline to organize the issuance of temporary permits of permanence (a program started in January) to Venezuelans who had entered the country. The measure allowed Venezuelans to normalize their legal status, work legally, access social services, get a tax ID number and integrate into the tax system. This proved inadequate, and over the past year officials set up extra facial and fingerprint recognition systems along the border, revamped websites related to immigration services, and set up screening and processing modules throughout Lima, with plans to add 10 more throughout the country. Finally, on Aug. 25, the government said a passport would be required for entry in the hope that it will help stem the flow of immigrants.

Ecuador

Located between Peru and Colombia, Ecuador has mostly been used as a transit country. Since 2016, however, there has been a marked increase in Venezuelans living in the country’s central provinces. The National Secretariat of Communication reported that from January through August this year, 641,353 Venezuelans entered Ecuador. Of those, 525,663 left for other South American destinations. In other words, 115,690 – just under 20 percent – remain in Ecuador.

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Ecuador’s government was not prepared for more Venezuelans to stay in the country. Ecuadorian law provides temporary residence for those who can prove economic solvency and come from a member of the Union of South American Nations, meaning that Venezuelans with the means can automatically stay for two years. The government has now started taking steps to control the flow of Venezuelans. It has organized bus trips to bring Venezuelans from their point of entry down south to Peru. The government also tried changing the law so that Venezuelans would need to show passports to enter – currently, they need only to show national IDs – but that was overruled by a court. Ecuador has not ruled out instituting some type of quota system.

Common Challenges

The sudden arrival of hundreds of thousands of desperate people poses unique challenges for each South American country, but some challenges are shared. The health risks that accompany mass migration rank as the most immediate concern among these governments. Basic sanitation is a serious issue. Many of the cities around entry points to these countries were not built to handle an influx of tens of thousands of people. The Ecuadorian and Peruvian governments declared localized states of emergency in areas of high migration to facilitate the allocation and delivery of government resources to these areas. Brazil has been sending extra doctors to Roraima since 2017. A secondary concern is the potential for disease to spread. Earlier this year, there was a measles outbreak in Venezuela. The Pan American Health Organization’s July update for measles said there are now 2,472 confirmed cases, up 45 percent from June, in 11 American countries. Venezuela accounts for 1,613 of the cases, and Brazil ranks second with 677. These two countries also accounted for over 92 percent of the new cases reported. Governments risk backlash from local populations if they are seen as being unresponsive to major health risks in the general populace.

There are also potential economic consequences. The biggest concern is labor. Informal labor markets are large in these countries: They serve as major revenue sources for the local population, but they also account for 70 percent of the work that Venezuelans find upon arrival in a new country, according to the International Organization for Migration. Job competition in the informal market is a concern, as is the suppression of wages in formal employment sectors. Many Venezuelan emigrants have university degrees or technical training. Though these concerns exist throughout the region, they are especially pronounced in Peru.

Another economic concern for governments is the cost of supporting mass immigration. Even basic operations such as providing security, administrative processing and sanitation measures at border crossings are expensive. Relocation programs, job training and health care for tens of thousands of people is even more so. Brazil still has not fully recovered from its 2015-16 recession, and the government has been struggling for the past two years to reduce spending. Ecuador is in the midst of recovering from low oil prices and transitioning the economy from high levels of government intervention to more open market conditions. And with so few resources to go around, governments must answer tough questions from voters about why so much is being spent on Venezuelans when the native poor populations have so much need for financial sustenance.

(click to enlarge)

Finally, there are the domestic political questions, which will vary for each country. Immigration is by nature a divisive issue. In the case of Venezuelan immigration, anti-immigrant sentiment and political instability will start in border locations with high concentrations of immigrants. Venezuelan immigration has had a huge impact on Brazilian politics, made stronger by the fact that there are elections in October. Tensions were already high between Roraima and the federal government. The state believes the federal government has not provided enough assistance. It also resents the fact that the courts denied its request to close the border with Venezuela. And the immigration debate ties into the national debate about the role of the military in society.

Courses of Action

For the affected countries, the solution involves managing the migration flow rather than trying to bring about regime change in Venezuela. In the short term, regime change would have the opposite of the desired effect. It’s a messy affair when governments fall – transition periods are chaotic, and there is always the rebuilding phase. Regime change would motivate people to leave and wait for stability to be restored before returning home. Moreover, are reluctant to use force to depose a leader out of fear that it would set a precedent that could one day turn against them. And the affected countries lack the spare resources and public support for such action anyway. For now, at least, governments will pursue solutions on the domestic level first.

Before taking any decisive measures, one major challenge must be overcome: figuring out the size and scope of the migration issue. Massive amounts of data need to be processed to track who enters and exits – often at different locations. In the case of irregular migration, it may take several months to estimate those figures. Many of the national institutions charged with this task were not designed to deal with issues of this magnitude. Peru’s immigration services are still processing temporary permits of permanence from 2017. Colombia and Peru exchanged basic data on registered Venezuelans, only to discover that some individuals were registered in both countries and reaping the benefits from both. All four countries have resorted to executive decrees to expedite the status of migrants, deploy security forces and/or free up other resources related to humanitarian aid.

Affected countries met on Tuesday to exchange ideas and assess the problem. They called for countries to find means to continue accepting Venezuelans, but joint statements won’t solve the problem. Each country has very different capacities to absorb new populations. Brazil is a huge country capable of accepting large numbers of people and with a long track record of integrating foreigners. This is not the case for Ecuador, which is about 30 times smaller than Brazil and has one-eighth the population. And the lack of any existing regional framework severely limits the ability to take a regional approach toward addressing Venezuelan migration. The urgency of the situation does not allow for time to be spent crafting such a framework.

Most important, each country will put its national interests ahead of regional cooperation. No country in the region can single-handedly absorb all the Venezuelan emigrants, nor is there a country that can foot the bill for supporting programs in neighboring countries. Cooperation will occur where it suits national interests, provided it doesn’t bind countries to specific courses of action. Where it will be easy for the region to find common ground is in the call for international support – ideally from a multilateral group like the United Nations – and aid to help mitigate the effects of the migration wave.
Title: North Dakota passes up Venezuela in oil production
Post by: DougMacG on September 20, 2018, 09:43:33 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mark_J_Perry/status/1042247609023381505/photo/1

This proves an important economic point. The splitting up a fixed pie premise of socialism does not take into account, among other things, the incentive to innovate.
Title: WSJ: Cuba holds the keys to Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 15, 2018, 08:25:13 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-holds-the-keys-to-venezuela-1539546540
Title: Re: WSJ: Cuba holds the keys to Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on October 18, 2018, 09:51:14 AM
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-holds-the-keys-to-venezuela-1539546540

More here:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-opposition-fernando-alban-prison-death-not-suicide/

Estimates for the total revolutionary infiltration run as high as 100,000 (Cubans intervening in Venezuela). Cuba also controls tens of thousands of trained and armed Venezuelan gang members who terrorize the population with impunity.
“Cuba’s intervention in Venezuela” by Maria C. Werlau

Did anyone else notice a difference in press coverage?  That this dissident leader in custody jumped from the 10th floor on his own is as likely as Jamal Khashoggi putting himself in the bone saw.

The difference:  Saudi is a Trump/US ally.  Maduro/Chavez/Castro butchers are US liberal elite allies.
Title: Stratfor: Venezuela Power Struggle
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 20, 2018, 11:57:19 AM
Stratfor Worldview
WORLDVIEW HOME

    

snapshots

Nov 20, 2018 | 19:53 GMT
3 mins read
Venezuela: Socialist Party Leader Loses Clout as Rivals Jockey for Power
(Stratfor)

The Big Picture

Since the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013, a loose conglomerate of occasionally competing political elites have ruled Venezuela. But oil revenue is shrinking, inducing greater competition among political elites looking to secure their share from the embezzlement of government income. As the number of rivalries increases, President Nicolas Maduro will try to keep some of the more powerful figures in check by curtailing their control over key government institutions.
See Venezuela's Unraveling
What Happened

Venezuelan news website Noticiero Digital published a report on Nov. 16 claiming that military authorities had arrested or detained Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez, the former director general of the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (SEBIN), Venezuela's domestic and foreign intelligence agency. According to the report, the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence in Caracas had already been holding Gonzalez Lopez for several days before Nov. 16.
Why It Matters

The apparent arrest of a key former official is the latest sign of a brewing power struggle within Venezuela's political hierarchy that underscores the waning power of Diosdado Cabello, a leading figure in Venezuela's United Socialist Party. Until his removal as SEBIN director in late October, Gonzalez Lopez, who was also interior minister from 2014 to 2016, was Cabello's most influential ally in the country's domestic security services. With Cabello's clout now seemingly diminished, Economic Vice President and Industries Minister Tareck El Aissami — a powerful official feuding with Cabello — will find it easier to sideline the man once considered Venezuela's most powerful political figure behind President Nicolas Maduro. Cabello's lack of direct control over SEBIN will limit his ability to challenge his political rivals more directly for political power and, possibly, the presidency. Cabello's reduced influence will also hamper his ability to compete for a share of increasingly scarce government revenues.

The key question is what will happen next to Cabello. The Maduro government may try to simply sideline him for the time being to thwart his political ambitions. However, Cabello's loss of power raises the possibility that Maduro will eventually arrest him and use his potential extradition as a bargaining chip to launch negotiations with the United States in an attempt to delay sanctions against Venezuela's government.
Background

According to a 2017 report received by Stratfor, El Aissami has been helping Maduro erode Cabello's influence within the government. El Aissami sees Cabello as a potential rival for political power. By staying close to the higher echelons of power, El Aissami and his allies can continue to enrich themselves and maintain control of the levers of power so they do not face imprisonment in Venezuela or the risk of extradition to the United States on U.S. criminal charges. Such competition for power will worsen as oil revenue continues to shrink and the United States raises political pressure on Caracas in 2019. For example, Washington is considering designating Venezuela's government a state sponsor of terror. The designation would likely discourage companies from investing in Venezuela's oil sector, causing its oil production to fall further and increasing the incentives for the country's elites to grab a share of declining government income before it's too late.
Title: Venezuela-- oil leaking everywhere
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 10, 2018, 10:31:29 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-11-24/venezuela-is-leaking-oil-everywhere-and-making-a-dangerous-mess?fbclid=IwAR00XCF0s3ZVNiLZB2klbirAVzBS6HPoGTeK2B3ad6inxRbZEr49VQp7MRQ
Title: GPF: Tracing the Origins of Venezuela's Crisis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 13, 2018, 07:24:45 AM

Tracing the Origins of Venezuela’s Crisis

The country’s current predicament was centuries in the making.

Allison Fedirka |December 6, 2018

Summary

Just over a month from now, on Jan. 10, Nicolas Maduro is scheduled to be sworn in again as president of Venezuela. The occasion won’t be without controversy – some 50 countries failed to recognize the elections in May that set Maduro up for another term in office – raising familiar questions about his government’s staying power. For the past year, Maduro’s administration has appeared to be hanging on by a thread, and Venezuela’s various crises show no sign of abating.

It is, by now, an all too familiar story, that of the country’s seemingly inexorable slide deeper and deeper into chaos. Low oil prices are the scapegoat most commonly assigned to the country’s recent decline. The narrative explains how the economy can now be on the brink of collapse after flourishing for years under high oil prices, but it fails to account for all of Venezuela’s problems. The price of oil does little to explain, for example, the degradation of the country’s institutions, the tenacity of its despotic leadership or the lack of a united opposition despite the public’s resounding rejection of the government. To understand these phenomena, one must first understand the structural design that has been in place since the earliest days of modern Venezuela’s existence. The centralized power, military presence, weak institutions and economic overreliance on commodities that characterize current government are not unique to it. Rather, they are rooted in Venezuela’s colonial past and early years of independence. This Deep Dive examines the interplay between these factors that has dictated the behaviors and actions of governments past and present.

A Strongman’s Game

Venezuela’s precedent for totalitarian rule long predates Maduro or his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. In fact, in its nearly two centuries of existence, Venezuela has functioned as a modern, Western-style democracy for only 40 years, from 1959-1999. (Though Chavez won power in democratic elections in 1998, his presidency brought a decisive end to the period of democracy.) More often, the country has operated under a strong central government led by a single individual empowered through a patronage network, an idea that traces back to the caudillo system in the colonial period.

Caudillos were affluent men who owned or oversaw production on land and rejected Spanish rule. Because they were too few in number to fight on their own, they used their elite social status to enlist the help of the lower classes, whom they organized and led as militias against Spanish troops. The tradition continued even after Venezuela won its war for independence. Without their Spanish overlords or a reliable national government to provide security, local landowners established patronage systems and local fighting forces, which they used to seize control of assets, such as customs houses, and territory. The most successful caudillos became generals in their militias and could project power beyond their region to compete on a national level.

The caudillo system reinforced the need for a strong centralized government in Venezuela and gave rise to the dozen or so revolutions in the country’s history. The constant jostling for ascendancy made the caudillos in power, and those aspiring to it, vulnerable to attack. At the same time, the system’s emphasis on regionalism made it difficult for leaders in one area to secure buy-in elsewhere in the country. Maintaining power required a firm hand. Still, schisms and shifts in allegiance were common, and when an opposition group wanted to challenge the government for power, a revolution broke out. Strongmen rulers rose and fell in this way, for much of the country’s history. (A push for decentralized power among the caudillos led to civil war in the mid-19th century, followed by a brief period of federalism in the 1860s.) Even Venezuela’s first attempts at democracy began with an uprising, known as the October Revolution of 1945. Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution in 1999 built on this tradition – and today Maduro draws on that legacy through his rhetoric and invocations of the now-idolized late president.

Institutional Deficiencies

With this kind of turnover in the government, Venezuela has struggled to build firm and enduring institutions. Many dictators have managed it during their tenures, but usually by exerting strong influence over government institutions, which, as a result, were not accountable to the public. Furthermore, these institutions typically have lasted only as long as the government that put them in place. It became the norm in Venezuela that a revolution or major political transition would usher in a new constitution engineered by the new administration to suit its aims. Since independence, the country has had 27 different constitutions, the most recent of which came about in 1999, under Chavez. What institutions have emerged in Venezuela have rarely had a chance to take root, much less flourish.

Part of the challenge is the patronage system that has underpinned nearly all of Venezuela’s rulers, from the caudillos to Maduro. Throughout Venezuela’s history, leaders have incentivized loyalty among their constituents and officials by offering them various rewards. The practice has made corruption a rampant problem in the country. It has also made organizing political movements around issues difficult, since people are accustomed to looking not for the candidates who best represent their beliefs or concerns but for those who can give them the best deals. In the latter half of the 20th century, those deals centered on agrarian reform, public works in poor urban neighborhoods and military funding. Maduro has adapted to Venezuela’s current economic difficulties by offering followers preferential access to food and U.S. dollars and by allowing pro-government armed groups to operate in the country. The trouble, of course, is that if government revenue drops off and the country’s leaders don’t have enough money to subsidize their supporters, their fortunes can quickly turn.

Hooked on Commodities

And in Venezuela, government income depends largely on commodities prices – its economy has centered on commodities exports from the very start. Colonies like Venezuela served two purposes for the Spanish crown: to provide raw materials to feed nascent industry back home and to buy up Spain’s finished goods. To ensure that its needs were served, Spain restricted colonial trade, first limiting the colonies to trade with only Spain and then permitting them to trade with one another as well. So it was that coffee, cacao, sugar, tobacco and leather became the mainstays of Venezuela’s economy.

The pattern continued even after Venezuela won its independence, only with new trade partners. The United Kingdom and other European powers, eager to hasten the Spanish Empire’s decline, had funded Venezuela’s efforts against Spain, offered it flexible financing to promote economic recovery in the conflict’s aftermath, and opened trade with Venezuela. But the basis of their trade was the same exchange of raw materials for finished goods that Venezuela had had with Spain. In addition, the foreign financial assistance put Venezuela into debt, which continued to grow because of servicing costs and rollovers, along with the country’s attempts to modernize its agricultural sector. When commodity prices dropped – particularly for coffee as Brazil increased production – they set off Venezuela’s first major debt crisis in 1903. The discovery of oil reserves in the country a decade or so later alleviated its debt problem and gave Caracas a robust new source of revenue. In other words, the government found a new commodity to hitch the economy to.

Commodity price fluctuations have plagued Venezuela ever since, causing recurring debt crises. When oil prices are low, the government borrows to cover its costs; then in more prosperous times, it devotes much of its revenue to paying down its debts and fortifying its pillars of support. (During an oil boom in the 1970s, for example, Caracas focused its public spending on educational programs related to the oil industry.) This leaves the government with little money to invest in developing other areas of the economy, thereby perpetuating the cycle.

The combination of low commodity prices and mounting debt has been the downfall of numerous administrations over the years. Commodity dependence makes any government vulnerable to market forces beyond its control. But that goes double for the Venezuelan government, since it derives much of its legitimacy from the patronage system. A crash in coffee prices in the 1830s and 1840s brought down the administration of President Jose Antonio Paez, a hero of Venezuela’s war for independence. A similar fate befell President Rafael Caldera in the 1990s, when lower oil prices and higher debt levels sapped the popular support that had won him a second term in office, paving the way for Chavez’s rise to power. And today, Maduro – who assumed the presidency in 2013, just a year before global oil prices tanked – finds himself in the same position. Languishing oil prices, coupled with high debt, will eventually be his undoing.

(click to enlarge)

Defending the Government

In the meantime, Maduro is drawing on his ties with the military to maintain his grip on power – a time-honored tradition among Venezuela’s leaders. The bond between the country’s government and military, like its commodity dependency, also goes back to colonial times. Having conquered local forces and rival powers for control of Venezuela, Spain crafted a military-centric administrative structure for the territory to defend it and its resources against the many foreign competitors in the surrounding area. High-ranking generals took control of the territory in 1777, when Venezuela gained autonomy as a captaincy, and, after independence, the military continued to play a prominent role in the country. Most caudillos had at one time been commanding officers in the armed forces. Since then, plenty of leaders have turned to the military to help keep or restore order. Gen. Juan Vicente Gomez Chacon, for instance, depended on security forces to suppress the roughly 20 armed domestic rebellions he faced while in power. President Romulo Betancourt, likewise, had to rely on the military to repel attacks from leftist guerrilla groups even during Venezuela’s democratic phase. And Chavez came to power after a career in the military.

Though Maduro never served in the military, he has aligned himself with it and stayed close to it. He selected Vladimir Padrino Lopez, an officer loyal to Chavez, as his defense minister on taking office and has made sure to share the spoils of power with the security forces to ensure its support for his government. Over the course of his administration, Maduro has extended the military’s reach by giving it prominent roles in areas such as the energy sector and food distribution programs. He also has turned a blind eye to its illicit activities, including drug trafficking. In return, Maduro has used the military’s intelligence branch to imprison opposition leaders and suspected dissidents among the security forces. If the president’s favor hasn’t been enough to eliminate dissent in the armed forces, it has at least kept the military largely invested in the Maduro administration’s survival.

What Comes Next

Even so, the end of Maduro’s tenure is inevitable. Geopolitics tells us that, based on the forces and realities the president is up against, his days are numbered – at this point, even a sudden spike in oil prices wouldn’t necessarily save him. When and how his government meets its end is harder to say, but history may serve as a guide. Venezuela’s past is replete with examples of fallen governments and the many causes of their demise.

(click to enlarge)

Civilian-military coups have spurred government transitions on multiple occasions. Indeed, in 2017, brewing dissent in the security forces prompted the government to crack down on military personnel who broke rank. But Venezuela’s opposition is too divided to overthrow the government, despite its efforts to unify, thanks to infighting and institutional defeats. Each party in the opposition, like any other coalition, has its own views on the government’s ideal end state and is reluctant to subjugate them to those of another group. The daylight between conservative and liberal factions in the opposition has led to power vacuums and political chaos in the wake of even successful coups, such as the ouster of the Monagas brothers in 1858. The opposition in contemporary Venezuela, moreover, has struggled to wrest power from Maduro under better circumstances – like when it won a majority in the National Assembly in late 2015. (Parliament, after all, is only one of five branches of Venezuela’s government, and the rest are still firmly under the president’s control.) Having run itself ragged with public protests and fruitless dialogue with Maduro and his supporters, the opposition took a break over the past year to regroup. It’s expected to resume its protests in January, and if it pulls together, it may yet be able to push for a democratic transition.

Otherwise, any number of contingencies could bring Maduro down. Someone could seize power while he’s out of the country, for example, though the president’s several recent trips abroad suggest he’s not sweating that possibility. Direct foreign intervention also seems unlikely. And while Colombia and the United States will continue to increase pressure on the Venezuelan government through sanctions, doing so probably won’t be enough to cause its collapse, unless they take direct aim at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela. Instead, the eventual power transition in Caracas is liable to be a domestically driven affair. There is even the possibility that the current administration eventually comes around to orchestrate its exit and set the stage for a new government, as longtime Spanish dictator Francisco Franco did before his death and as the Brazilian military junta did before ceding power in 1986.

When a new government does take over in Venezuela, it will have its work cut out. The next administration will need to rebuild from the ground up, a task that may prove an opportunity to break the patterns that have shaped Venezuela’s government for most of its history. That it spent four decades as a democracy – the result of various political factions uniting to overthrow an authoritarian government and to rule instead by coalition – suggests Venezuela is not predestined for dictatorship. Breaking old habits and establishing new ones isn’t easy, but neither is it impossible, as countries such as South Korea, which managed to industrialize its economy decades after major Western countries had done so, can attest.

Institutions wax and wane over time. Even those that seemed infallible at one point in history, like the English monarchy or the Argentine military, invariably give way to others. These processes take time and effort, of course, and just as many countries fail at them as succeed. Nevertheless, these are the big pictures issues that will help determine Venezuela’s future.
Title: 1,000,000+% inflation
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 17, 2018, 11:14:42 AM


https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-million-hyperinflation-losing-lives-everyday-1256630
Title: Re: 1,000,000+% inflation
Post by: DougMacG on December 17, 2018, 11:20:07 AM
https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-million-hyperinflation-losing-lives-everyday-1256630

The s-word SOCIALISM not mentioned as the cause.

Maybe it just sort of happened.
Title: Venezuela Excrement hits fan for entire region
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 02, 2019, 09:44:20 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/world/political-infection-how-venezuela-crisis-threatens-to-unravel-the-whole-region?fbclid=IwAR1UlFDg5Wk7C6YhifAb41gE0uqiaO0j-4sIE4Ak_Ulq5LktdTo4CRVTSko
Title: Foreign Policy: How Venezuela Struck it Poor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 06, 2019, 01:39:12 PM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/16/how-venezuela-struck-it-poor-oil-energy-chavez/?fbclid=IwAR0RlYvIvWA-4aZc2sOZrphLhe_tPxi0NXLpIF7asdfhkjwqDVKADl2gMiY
Title: Re: Foreign Policy: How Venezuela Struck it Poor
Post by: DougMacG on January 07, 2019, 06:01:38 AM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/16/how-venezuela-struck-it-poor-oil-energy-chavez/?fbclid=IwAR0RlYvIvWA-4aZc2sOZrphLhe_tPxi0NXLpIF7asdfhkjwqDVKADl2gMiY

Great article.  Bears repeating.   :wink:
https://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1307.msg111794#msg111794

Socialists there and here still don't know, even the oil business requires capital.

"Venezuela was considered rich in the early 1960s: It produced more than 10 percent of the world’s crude and had a per capita GDP many times bigger than that of its neighbors Brazil and Colombia — and not far behind that of the United States. "
...
"he started siphoning off billions of dollars in PDVSA revenue to pay for his social programs, including housing, education, clinics, and school lunches. While this strategy may have paid off politically in the short term, it was extremely dangerous: for the more cash the government took out of PDVSA, the less money the oil company had to invest in maintaining production or finding new resources."
...
 “During the highest oil boom in history, when every other country in the world increased investment, Venezuela [without reinvestment of profits] did not, and production kept declining,”
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 24, 2019, 06:57:46 PM
Socialism in Venezuela under Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro ended as socialism always ends: Chavez family members and cronies became billionaires (in some cases, multi-billionaires) while most other Venezuelans starved.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/01/u-s-russia-back-competing-venezuelans.php

Russia still backs the tyrant: 

Mr Putin “expressed support to the legitimate government of Venezuela amid the acute political crisis that has been provoked from the outside”, the Kremlin said.

The “outside” means the U.S. government.
Title: Re: Foreign Policy: How Venezuela Struck it Poor
Post by: G M on January 25, 2019, 01:36:37 AM
What amazed me about the article is the word "socialist" actually appeared 4 times.


https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/16/how-venezuela-struck-it-poor-oil-energy-chavez/?fbclid=IwAR0RlYvIvWA-4aZc2sOZrphLhe_tPxi0NXLpIF7asdfhkjwqDVKADl2gMiY

Great article.  Bears repeating.   :wink:
https://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1307.msg111794#msg111794

Socialists there and here still don't know, even the oil business requires capital.

"Venezuela was considered rich in the early 1960s: It produced more than 10 percent of the world’s crude and had a per capita GDP many times bigger than that of its neighbors Brazil and Colombia — and not far behind that of the United States. "
...
"he started siphoning off billions of dollars in PDVSA revenue to pay for his social programs, including housing, education, clinics, and school lunches. While this strategy may have paid off politically in the short term, it was extremely dangerous: for the more cash the government took out of PDVSA, the less money the oil company had to invest in maintaining production or finding new resources."
...
 “During the highest oil boom in history, when every other country in the world increased investment, Venezuela [without reinvestment of profits] did not, and production kept declining,”

Title: Stratfor: Military intervention would not be easy
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2019, 04:08:12 PM


Trouble Awaits Any Military Intervention in Venezuela
Military troops during a ceremony at the Fuerte Tiuna Military Complex in Caracas on Jan. 10.
(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)
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Highlights

    Many lower-level Venezuelan military personnel could desert their positions if ordered to crack down on opposition demonstrators.
    At the same time, the country's armed forces could quickly muster a hasty defense to resist any outside intervention intent on overthrowing the government.
    Any intervening force would face numerous challenges, including difficult terrain, logistical issues, guerrilla attacks and the prospect of fighting beleaguered but well-equipped Venezuelan forces.

With the United States and much of Latin America recognizing Venezuela's opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president — declaring President Nicolas Maduro's government as "illegitimate" in the process — it appears that the country is heading toward a chaotic, violent transition of power. As the stakes rise, so does the possibility that Venezuela could witness an external military intervention (an option that Washington has so far refused to take off the table in its desire to see the back of Maduro), particularly if Caracas responds with mass violence against opposition protesters. But despite the weakened state of Venezuela's armed forces, any military intervention in the country is unlikely to be a simple and seamless affair.
The Big Picture

Venezuela's crisis appears to be approaching a head, especially after numerous regional states recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of the country. As countries such as the United States, Brazil and Colombia consider how they could force President Nicolas Maduro from power, the prospect of an external armed intervention in Venezuela remains on the table. Several factors, however, suggest that any outside force would experience great difficulty in intervening militarily in the country.
See Venezuela's Unraveling
A Military That Mirrors the Country

There is no denying that the Venezuelan military finds itself in a significantly weakened state following years of domestic economic trials and tribulations. The Maduro government may retain the loyalty of Venezuela's top military officers, but it cannot depend on support across all ranks. The men and women of the armed forces, after all, reflect wider Venezuelan society, which is deeply divided. If the government orders the military to conduct a violent and large-scale crackdown on anti-government protesters, many soldiers would likely desert, or even defect, in droves. In fact, concerns over the loyalty of the rank and file are likely discouraging Caracas from ordering troops to repress demonstrators, forcing the government to instead rely on more ideologically loyal paramilitary formations such as the National Guard.

The military also suffers from a spate of other problems, many of which existed well before Venezuela entered its crisis. Training, for instance, has never been a particular strength of the armed forces, but it is now a glaring problem because of the current dearth of food and fuel, which has largely kept military units idle in their barracks. Corruption, nepotism and cronyism have also eaten away at the overall efficiency of the armed forces. Increased factionalism exacerbates these shortcomings, which have begun to hinder command and control and cooperation among service branches. All things considered, the Venezuelan military might appear to be one of Latin America's strongest, but its deep-seated problems mean that it is in little position to defend the country effectively from a serious external attack; instead, it is far more likely to splinter under serious pressure.
The Challenge That Awaits

Nevertheless, there are several reasons why an external military intervention in Venezuela would be no cakewalk. For one thing, even if sizable portions of the armed forces might balk at turning their weapons on fellow citizens, an invasion could galvanize them to circle their wagons against an external aggressor. And in contrast to Libya's military on the eve of the 2011 intervention that ultimately toppled Moammar Gadhafi, Venezuela's armed forces are much better equipped and enjoy much more advantageous terrain. What's more, Venezuela could receive increased external support from allies such as Russia, which could further complicate plans for an intervention.

Any external military action against Venezuela would, in all likelihood, involve a significant air campaign whose first and foremost goal would be to gain air supremacy over the skies. The only country equipped to conduct such a campaign is the United States. Colombia and Brazil — two regional heavyweights that are staunchly opposed to the Maduro government — lack the aircraft necessary to neutralize the Venezuelan Air Force and its air defenses independently. And even if Venezuelan pilots lack the skills of their Brazilian and Colombian counterparts, they boast an advantage thanks to their superior combat aircraft, especially the Russian-made Su-30MK2. Brazil, for example, will only begin to address this technological imbalance this year, when the country acquires its first batch of Swedish JAS 39E Gripen fighters.

A military intervention could quickly snowball into one of the largest worldwide military operations since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

A U.S. air campaign would undoubtedly decimate the Venezuelan air force, but it would require a considerable effort to also suppress and destroy the country's surface-to-air missile batteries on the ground. This would be a complicated endeavor, particularly as Venezuelan air defense units, unlike Gadhafi's forces, would benefit from the mobility of their systems and the abundance of dense urban and jungle terrain. Furthermore, the Venezuelan army as a whole is very large — even before adding in various paramilitary formations — and relatively well-equipped with light and heavy weapons. With such forces also able to benefit from the same dense urban and jungle terrain, it would require an extended air campaign to grind them down if they were to continue active resistance.
Logistical Nightmares

Unless an intervention triggered a mass uprising that quickly toppled the government, any effort to accelerate the campaign with a ground invasion would face its share of problems as well. Given Venezuela's sheer size and population, an intervening country or countries would require a sizable military force. Such an army would then need to confront the problem of choosing a route into Venezuela. A direct intervention by sea is inherently risky because amphibious operations are one of the most complicated and dangerous military maneuvers. Overland invasion routes from Colombia or Brazil also face difficult terrain, complicated logistics and extended supply lines that would be vulnerable to guerrilla attack. In effect, a military intervention could quickly snowball into one of the largest worldwide military operations since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

All of these constraints highlight how a military intervention in Venezuela is not comparable to previous interventions in the region, such as Grenada (1983), Haiti (1994-1995) or Panama (1989-1990). Nor is it particularly similar to the 2011 intervention in Libya. Venezuela's size, population, terrain, and weaponry ensure that a long military campaign would be almost inevitable if the initial action doesn't quickly topple Maduro's government or trigger a collapse in the armed forces. And even if an attacking force were successful, the leaders of a military intervention would be faced with a very messy aftermath in which they would have to suddenly shift from offensive operations to propping up the new government and support its efforts to rebuild a broken economy and food distribution system — to say nothing about the prospect of dealing with possible attacks from disenfranchised Chavista forces in a protracted insurgency. And then there are other pressing issues, such as forced migration, the effect of conflict on the energy market or the potential proliferation of weapons and violence. Simply put, overthrowing Maduro through external intervention is unlikely to provide a shortcut to resolving Venezuela's myriad problems.
Title: Stratfor updates
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 26, 2019, 02:47:13 PM
By GPF Staff


Daily Memo: The Struggle in Venezuela, Confusion From Iran, Kurdish Protest in Northern Iraq


All the news worth knowing today.


Here are some updates on the situation in Venezuela from the week:
•   Two people are claiming to be Venezuela’s president, and neither seems ready to back down. Opposition leader Juan Guaido, who recently proclaimed himself acting president, says that President Nicolas Maduro must that amnesty may be an option if he cooperates. Maduro, meanwhile, has remained defiant, even saying in a live broadcast that he was willing to talk directly with U.S. President Donald Trump and to travel to the U.N. Security Council meeting in New York to argue his case. He also told military commanders to prepare to defend the country and announced nationwide military exercises to take place Feb.10-25.
•   The Wall Street Journal reported late yesterday morning that, according to a senior official in the Trump administration, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence spoke with Guaido on Tuesday evening, the night before Guaido declared himself acting president. Pence reportedly called to assure him of the United States’ support if he seized control of the government. If the account is true – and considering what has happened, it seems probable – the U.S. played an active role in orchestrating the current opposition to Maduro.
•   Russia continues to support Maduro and to criticize the United States’ posture toward Venezuela. The Russian foreign minister described U.S. policy as “destructive,” and a spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry accused Washington of repeating its interventionist policies. In addition, Russia’s ambassador to Mexico told a Mexican newspaper that Russia “appreciated very much” Mexico’s noninterference in Venezuelan political affairs and its continued recognition of Maduro’s administration, a position that puts Mexico City at odds with Washington. Finally, Reuters reports that private Russian military contractors have arrived in Venezuela to protect Maduro’s personal safety. The Russian and Venezuelan governments deny having any information about the story, and the contracting company in question, the Wagner Group, has not made a statement about it.
•   The Trump administration has named Elliott Abrams as special envoy to oversee U.S. policy toward Venezuela. Abrams is best known for pleading guilty in 1991 to two misdemeanor charges for withholding information from Congress during the Iran-Contra affair. (President George H.W. Bush pardoned him in 1992.) Back in 2002, the Guardian reported that Abrams had approved a Venezuelan coup attempt against Hugo Chavez under President George W. Bush. This isn’t the place to adjudicate Abrams’ past, nor is the man himself consequential. But his appointment, and U.S. statements on and policy toward Venezuela, suggests Washington increasingly using moral and ideological justifications in its foreign policy.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 27, 2019, 07:30:43 PM
Venezuela's Friends and Foes Square Off Over Maduro
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, left, meet at the Revolution Palace in Havana on April 21, 2018.
(ERNESTO MASTRASCUSA/AFP/Getty Images)


    Russia, China and Cuba will attempt to keep Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in office while the United States and its allies in Venezuela's political opposition ratchet up pressure to hasten his departure.
    Havana and Moscow will become directly involved in trying to safeguard or prolong Maduro's rule.
    Brazil and Colombia will work to force Maduro from power, but their ability to pressure Caracas will be limited compared to that of the United States.
    Events on the ground, as well as Maduro's ability to keep Venezuela's armed forces on his side, will determine whether the leader stays in place or soon leaves power.
    A formal negotiation period could delay Maduro's removal, so the opposition will try to win over as many military commanders and soldiers as possible in the short term.

The widespread international recognition of Juan Guaido as the legitimate interim successor to Nicolas Maduro as president of Venezuela has raised the stakes for Venezuelans — as well as nations with an interest in the troubled South American country. Those nations, chief among them the United States, Russia, China, Cuba, Brazil and Colombia, are sharply split between those that favor Maduro's rapid departure and those that — for largely financial and economic reasons — would prefer him to remain in place. Whatever their respective reasons, both camps will endeavor to mold events in Venezuela in their favor. For its part, the United States will rely on a combination of sanctions pressure and opposition demonstrations to turn key members of the armed forces against Maduro. But countries that have close ties with the current government will do everything in their power to delay — if not outright avert — Maduro's departure from power.

The Big Picture

The political crisis in Venezuela is domestic in origin but global in importance. Though Venezuela's geopolitical significance has declined in recent decades, it remains key to countries with specific interests in it — for financial, energy or security reasons. Some of these countries, such as Cuba, Russia and China, would prefer that President Nicolas Maduro remain in power. A new government would affect Moscow, Havana and Beijing, as a change could upset oil shipments and loan repayments. Russia and Cuba will seek to prolong Maduro's tenure for as long as possible to protect their interests.

Fighting to Delay Maduro's Exit

The nation with the strongest short-term motivation for keeping Maduro in power is Cuba, which wants to maintain the status quo in Caracas to safeguard its own future political stability. After all, Cuba's gradual transition away from highly personalistic communist rule is going to be difficult enough without losing access to free Venezuelan fuel and crude oil shipments. Cuba currently receives about 50,000 barrels per day of fuel and crude oil from Venezuela — a figure that accounts for about a third of the island's consumption. The threat of losing these shipments is a serious one, as any new government in Caracas trying to maximize its oil export revenue and attract more foreign direct investment would likely reduce or entirely cease oil shipments to Cuba.

The Cuban government has significant military and intelligence assets at its disposal to keep Maduro in power. For nearly two decades, the Cuban government has assisted the Venezuelan state in military training and intelligence sharing on foreign and domestic targets. Venezuela's internal security services work closely with Cuba to closely monitor domestic political opponents. Though Havana may have already determined that Maduro's exit from power is just a matter of time, the island will make it its mission to delay that departure. To accomplish this, it might choose to deploy additional security forces to bolster the Venezuelan government's military and intelligence gathering capabilities. Nevertheless, Cuba is a comparatively small actor in Venezuela, meaning it will be powerless to turn the tide if key officials who head Venezuela's geographical military districts turn their guns on Maduro.

Russia also has no desire to see Maduro go quickly, though for far less immediate reasons. Like the oil gifted to Cuba, Venezuela's opposition does not view Caracas' loan agreements with Russia and China as legitimate, suggesting that a new government would significantly reduce or end oil-for-loan programs as part of reforms in the energy sector. As it is, Venezuela's current government has fallen far behind on payments to Russian lenders like Rosneft and others, with the former's CEO even rebuking Maduro privately two months ago because Caracas had failed to repay less than half of the total 380,000 barrels per day of crude oil that it owes to Russia. China, by contrast, was receiving about 460,000 barrels per day, or 60 percent of what Caracas owes to Beijing.

Maduro's fall would rob Moscow of an ally it can use to increase strategic pressure on the United States.

Aside from the possibility of a new Venezuelan government defaulting on Russian loans, Moscow has a strategic interest in the country. Venezuela fits neatly into Russia's global strategy of using even geopolitically minor conflicts to maintain strategic pressure on the United States. For nearly a decade, Russia flirted with the idea of establishing a more permanent strategic bomber presence in Venezuela. Maduro's fall would rob Moscow of an ally it can use to increase strategic pressure on the United States, meaning steps to keep the president in power will become a growing priority for Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to a report on Jan. 25, more Russian private military contractors have made their way to Caracas, possibly to increase personal security for Maduro. By using its forces to directly bolster the government, Moscow would complicate the Venezuelan military's attempts to overthrow Maduro and could even use the troops as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States on other strategic issues.

But of all the foreign powers with an interest in Venezuela, China likely faces the most financial exposure to the collapse of the Maduro government. Venezuela still owes China around $23 billion in loans that it is paying back with crude oil exports. At present, more than half of Venezuela's daily crude oil production goes directly toward repaying Chinese and Russian loans — making it likely that a new government would default on these agreements in its search for ways to bolster government revenue through oil exports. The rise of a pro-U.S. government in Venezuela would naturally cloud the prospects of Chinese military sales to Venezuela. Much of Caracas' military equipment comes from China, but a Venezuelan alliance with the United States would slowly shift the government's military procurement focus toward Washington. Still, the Chinese government is far less likely to directly intervene in Venezuela than Cuba or Russia, as such a step would hurt its trade relations with the United States at a delicate time and fly in the face of Beijing's overarching diplomatic focus on non-interference.

Fighting to Hasten Maduro's Exit

Arrayed against Cuba, Russia and China are Brazil and Colombia, two of Venezuela's neighbors that will adopt an ever-increasing role to tilt the country's balance of power away from Maduro. Brasilia and Bogota's interests in handing Venezuela to opposition rule are clear: Maduro's rule precipitated a food crisis that has forced millions of Venezuelans to seek relief in Colombia and Brazil. Caracas' support for illicit activities, such as militancy, drug trafficking and illegal mining, have also strengthened criminal groups in both countries. Thus, as Washington raises pressure on Caracas, Bogota and Brasilia are likely to do the same. The two neighbors, however, have less leverage over Caracas because they consume virtually no oil or refined products from Venezuela, while they possess almost no international clout that would allow them to impose punishing sanctions without assistance from the United States. Accordingly, they will likely follow the United States' lead in the coming weeks and months as they seek to achieve their aims.

In the near future, Venezuela's political situation will evolve largely in accordance with events on the ground. The United States and its opposition allies will try to raise pressure on military forces to switch sides against the government — if Washington doesn't engage in direct military intervention.

As the opposition tries to persuade military units and commanders to turn on the president, offers of amnesty will be crucial. As head of the National Assembly, Guaido can press his claim to the presidency by negotiating and offering to approve amnesty legislation toward blanket pardons or some sort of amnesty mechanism. The existence of such proposals — backed by guarantees that the United States will not enforce extradition requests against certain military commanders and political elites — will make it more likely that Venezuelan elites could consider a transition of power. Such an approach may bring enough commanders to the opposition's side to swiftly oust Maduro, but the incumbent still wields enough political and military influence to resist. He is likely to use any negotiations to buy time to stake his claim to the presidency (indeed, his foreign allies are likely to advise it). Such delays may keep him in power longer, but they could also intensify the violence of the protests and persuade dissidents in the armed forces to mount their own challenges.

Given Venezuela's tailspin, the likelihood of Maduro making an orderly departure is low. His exit, instead, is more likely to be violent and chaotic, as he has no desire to abandon power and his key domestic and foreign allies wish to delay the inevitable for as long as possible. Even if the opposition and government agree to formal offers to negotiate, the former will want to sit down for such talks with as strong a hand as possible. It's also a case of once bitten, twice shy: Maduro has previously roped his opponents into fruitless negotiations, so his opponents will be wary of any entering any new negotiations. For such talks to succeed, or even advance beyond the initial stages, they would require strong backing from key military officials or from the defense minister himself. Without their support, the situation in Venezuela will slide toward open insurrection, raising the prospect of more violence as Maduro's opponents square off against security forces intent on maintaining his rule.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on January 28, 2019, 06:08:05 AM
Former Supreme Allied Commander, retired Admiral James Stavridis said this morning he sees two out of three chance Maduro goes and that this could unfold quickly. 
http://www.hughhewitt.com/admiral-james-stavridis-usn-ret-former-allied-supreme-commander-of-nato-and-commander-of-u-s-southern-command-on-venezuelanspring/
Stavridis was also former combatant commander for Southern Command, that part of the American military that includes the Caribbean, Latin and Central and South America, including Venezuela.

"...Russia and China and their play in this. They are going to what they can to support Maduro, but I think they are coming to realize they don’t have a strong hand of cards."

#VenezuelanSpring

Safe haven for Maduro in Cuba.  Amnesty for Generals who switch sides.

I wonder what Denny S is seeing.
Title: Rumint
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 28, 2019, 04:36:55 PM


https://special-ops.org/49145/russian-private-military-contractors-reportedly-operating-in-venezuela/?fbclid=IwAR36oOTQact8X4gnuHnePqXnlzTjgfUPpwn2LrEB6YG0avSN2sYP9hj91-I
Title: Re: Rumint
Post by: G M on January 28, 2019, 04:41:37 PM


https://special-ops.org/49145/russian-private-military-contractors-reportedly-operating-in-venezuela/?fbclid=IwAR36oOTQact8X4gnuHnePqXnlzTjgfUPpwn2LrEB6YG0avSN2sYP9hj91-I

I don't doubt it.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 28, 2019, 05:38:00 PM
Could just as easily be the Russkis trying to look important.
Title: Bolton's "leak" planned
Post by: ccp on January 30, 2019, 06:35:07 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/john-bolton-apos-notes-indicate-004437589.html

John had to know this would get out.
I strongly suspect he knew someone would see this and it was a planned message thru the Left MSM

I mean come on did he really have to write this down to refresh his memory  ?
Title: Re: Bolton's "leak" planned
Post by: DougMacG on January 30, 2019, 07:03:48 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/john-bolton-apos-notes-indicate-004437589.html

John had to know this would get out.
I strongly suspect he knew someone would see this and it was a planned message thru the Left MSM

I mean come on did he really have to write this down to refresh his memory  ?

Yes, he had to be sending a message to Maduro.

Maduro:  "I’m ready to talk to U.S. President Donald Trump. I would like it to be a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro," he said in a state TV channel broadcast on Tuesday, Russian news agency Tass reported.  [Unreliable source.]  https://www.newsweek.com/maduro-wants-face-face-meeting-trump-1139446

Maduro should focus on his escape and personal survival.  He ran out of ideas to get his country out of this crisis and he wasn't legitimately reelected.  Power needs to shift to the new interim President.  New, fair elections need to be held.  With Maduro out and real reforms coming, humanitarian aid could come in quickly.
Title: Leaving on a jet plane , , , for Russia?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 30, 2019, 12:11:55 PM


https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-plane-in-venezuela-takes-20-tons-of-gold-flies-to-unknown-location-lawmaker-claims?fbclid=IwAR2cr9qigqGq9r1z_VC5tIXNfQltCZ2iwY3p8P5Y9QcZ6YzzILIhjXLQDN4
Title: Why Russia and China are messing with US in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 31, 2019, 10:27:55 AM
https://www.foxnews.com/world/why-russia-china-are-fighting-us-push-against-venezuelas-maduro?fbclid=IwAR19tDRbkOb_14cM1NkA5bqKBuTbNwr_nwLaYcOS7EPgvkpiBxL2V_B1cxU
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 01, 2019, 07:28:53 AM
Venezuela Opposition Leader Outlines Plan to Revive Nation
Juan Guaidó, recognized by Washington as the rightful leader, said he would sell state assets and invite private investment in the energy industry
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó spoke at a university in Caracas on Thursday about how he hoped to revive the country’s battered economy.
Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó spoke at a university in Caracas on Thursday about how he hoped to revive the country’s battered economy. Photo: Marco Bello/Getty Images
0 Comments
By Ryan Dube and
Kejal Vyas
Jan. 31, 2019 6:22 p.m. ET

CARACAS—Juan Guaidó, the 35-year-old opposition leader recognized by Washington as Venezuela’s rightful leader, laid out a plan Thursday to reverse President Nicolás Maduro’s economic polices and address Latin America’s worst humanitarian crisis in decades.

Speaking in an auditorium packed with supporters at a Venezuelan university, Mr. Guaidó said a new government could quickly stabilize an economy that was once one the region’s richest but that now suffers from widespread food and medical shortages and the world’s highest inflation.

“We have to create confidence in the country,” Mr. Guaidó said to a raucous crowd with supporters yelling “God bless you” to the tall and slim politician. “This isn’t a problem of left or right, but a humanitarian problem.”

Mr. Guaidó got a fresh boost on Thursday when the European Parliament recognized him as interim president. The European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said the EU was ready to raise pressure on Mr. Maduro by recognizing Mr. Guaidó as president unless the government called new presidential elections.

Mr. Guaidó said his plan called for seeking financial aide from multilateral organizations, tapping bilateral loans, restructuring debt and opening up Venezuela’s vast oil sector to private investment. It includes privatizing assets held by state enterprises derided by the opposition as corrupt and incompetent and eliminating currency controls. Mr. Guaido said he would guarantee access to basic public services for Venezuelans who have long endured a lack of running water and power outages. He also said he’d end wasteful state subsidies and take steps to revive the private sector.

“Here, no one wants to be given anything,” he said to cheers. “We are going to clean up this economic crisis and create jobs.”
A demonstrator held a picture of late president Hugo Chávez on Thursday as workers from Venezuela's state oil company participated in an ‘anti-imperialist’ march in Caracas that was promoted by the government to support Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
A demonstrator held a picture of late president Hugo Chávez on Thursday as workers from Venezuela's state oil company participated in an ‘anti-imperialist’ march in Caracas that was promoted by the government to support Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Photo: yuri cortez/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Venezuela’s once demoralized opposition has been revitalized in recent weeks as Mr. Maduro faces the greatest test yet to his grip on power. Another large protest is planned for Saturday. Mr. Guaidó’s parallel government has been recognized by the U.S., Canada and much of Latin America.

The U.S. this week tightened the screws on Mr. Maduro in a bid to force him from power by freezing Venezuela’s oil assets in the U.S. and sanctioning state oil company PdVSA, the country’s top exporter and source of nearly all its hard currency income. Washington pledged to give Mr. Guaido’s group some of that cash.

“I wish Nicolas Maduro and his top advisors a long, quiet retirement, living on a nice beach somewhere far from Venezuela,” White House national security adviser John Bolton wrote on Twitter Thursday.

Ms. Mogherini also said Thursday that EU foreign ministers had backed the creation of an International Contact Group to join a mix of European and Latin American countries—including Spain, Britain, Italy, France, Germany, Ecuador, Uruguay, Bolivia and Costa Rica—to guide Venezuela towards elections and help avoid a violent outcome.

Mr. Maduro, the handpicked successor of the late Socialist President Hugo Chávez, blames the U.S. and domestic opposition for orchestrating a coup to get their hands on the country’s oil.

Speaking to PdVSA workers wearing red hard hats on Thursday, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez issued a patriotic call for oil employees to ramp up production. But it’s unclear how that could happen. Output has fallen to 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, compared with 3.5 million in 1998 when Mr. Chávez was elected.

“We are the revolutionary PdVSA,” she said. “We are the anti-imperialist PdVSA. They don’t want to understand that.”

Highlighting the uncertainty here, Mr. Guaidó ended his speech at the university after alleging that four members of the Special Action Forces, a division of the National Police, had showed up at his apartment asking for his wife. He then invited supporters in the crowd to follow him to his apartment, where he briefly spoke to journalists outside his building. The National Police chief denied the allegation.

The Trump administration has issued thinly veiled threats against Mr. Maduro not to arrest Mr. Guaidó.

In recent weeks, Mr. Guaidó has tried to win over military and police officers still loyal to Mr. Maduro by promising them amnesty if they support his transitional government.

But Mr. Guaidó told The Wall Street Journal in a brief interview earlier this week that members of certain security units that are accused of committing human rights abuses as well as extrajudicial killings wouldn’t be able to receive those same benefits. He singled out the Special Action Forces, whose black-clad officers are often seen on Caracas’s streets with ski masks and shotguns.

The government says it uses the forces to root out kidnappers and other criminal groups that run amok in the crime-ridden country. The Venezuelan rights group Provea blames the Special Action Forces for more than 200 killings in 2018.

“This is the government’s death squad,” said Marco Ponce, a rights activist.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 08, 2019, 05:36:13 PM


https://tribunist.com/news/venezuelan-army-releases-video-of-intense-training-to-scare-off-u-s-military-forces-it-fails-video/?fbclid=IwAR1iiFzPFSxEUbRdqTAC-iCdOBg5jjfsuuE9mPJjpo0bSkukGp2X9ybpL8A
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on February 08, 2019, 06:50:18 PM
Crafty ,

The color of their faces 

could not have been lost on you.

"https://tribunist.com/news/venezuelan-army-releases-video-of-intense-training-to-scare-off-u-s-military-forces-it-fails-video/?fbclid=IwAR1iiFzPFSxEUbRdqTAC-iCdOBg5jjfsuuE9mPJjpo0bSkukGp2X9ybpL8A"

The black faces of the Venezuelan military would result in death by shame in the US .  When here
here the Left goes crazy over 35 yr old photos and even a black turtleneck sweater that has Don Lemon clarifying for us "make no mistake about this is black face ":

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/07/692314950/gucci-apologizes-and-removes-sweater-following-blackface-backlash

just show these pics to the US libs and the Venezuelan army will all be destroyed within seconds by shame within  on twitter NYT WP CNN and viral pics and videos and verbal   nuclear blasts.
Title: WSJ: O'Grady: Power & Money in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 12, 2019, 09:14:08 AM

Power and Money in Venezuela
Some opponents of Nicolás Maduro remain supporters of socialism.
46 Comments
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
Feb. 10, 2019 3:02 p.m. ET

Nicolás Maduro’s decision to block humanitarian aid to the starving Venezuelan people is no surprise. It’s already well-established that the dictator and his Cubans backers are tyrants.

What really matters politically is the effect of new U.S. Treasury rules mandating that payments for Venezuelan oil go to an escrow account for the government of interim President Juan Guaidó. As the Journal’s Kejal Vyas and Bradley Olsonreported Feb. 4, the restrictions “are making it difficult for the Maduro regime to secure payment for the oil.”

A severe cash-flow disruption increases the odds that Mr. Maduro will have to move out of the presidential palace. Even so, democracy advocates had best not get ahead of themselves. Many risks would remain even if Mr. Maduro retires.

From the earliest days of Hugo Chávez’s rule, oil money has been the key to power in Venezuela. Chávez tightened his grip at first not by executing opponents but by buying them off. This is why friends of the region’s hard left are wringing their hands and crying that the Treasury rules will hurt the Venezuelan people.

The Venezuelan people are already destitute, and anything that accelerates Mr. Maduro’s demise is good for them. But what happens next?

Many analysts are overlooking the problem of the army of political operatives who were part of the breakdown of the country over the past two decades and now oppose Mr. Maduro.

These include die-hard chavistas like Rafael Ramírez. From 2004 to 2014, Mr. Ramírez was president of PdVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, which is in ruins. Also in the opposition are career bandits of the political class, who have shared for years in the spoils of corruption no matter who was at the helm. The list includes but is not limited to some members of Venezuela’s infamous Democratic Action Party.

These characters have broken with Mr. Maduro but not with the socialism that made them rich. They seek impunity for their crimes and a place at the feeding trough in the next government. Their strategy is to demand “power sharing” and to threaten to split the opposition if they aren’t dealt in. These self-interested opportunists have support from ideologues in places like the Vatican, which has been an advocate of appeasing Mr. Maduro.

The horrendous toll on humanity from two decades of Venezuelan socialism can’t be overstated. Food and toilet-paper shortages and malnutrition are getting the most attention. But an article in the journal Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease described Venezuela as “an epicenter of the resurgence of multiple vaccine-preventable, vector-borne, and zoonotic diseases with numerous ongoing, co-occurring epidemics.”

Malaria is a particular problem, the authors write, in part because of a large migration to illegal mining areas, a deterioration in the medical infrastructure and “above all, lack of political will.”

This is the legacy not only of Hugo Chávez but also those who embraced socialism, whether because of ideology or greed. He used his early popularity to rewrite the constitution, get the Venezuelan congress to give him the power to rule by decree, confiscate large farms, and attack entrepreneurs from the bully pulpit. He also cracked down on the free press. A few years later, when he trampled the rights of workers at PdVSA and packed the supreme court, the public was uninformed and there was little criticism from abroad. He could do it, the argument went, because he was still winning elections—though electoral institutions were already corrupted.

By 2007 price and capital controls were destroying the country’s productive capacity and harming businesses that sold imports. It was already difficult to find routine foodstuffs like milk, cooking oil, bread and pork. But Chávez had control of PdVSA and was flush with cash. No one could stop him.

Oil money greased every sector of society—from the government, military, business and media to nongovernmental organizations including religious groups. Most important, Chávez used it to bribe and corrupt members of other political parties.

These sycophants, along with the anti-Maduro chavistas, are now worried. They have no ethics and they don’t want Mr. Guaidó to succeed if it means the end of the gravy train—and the power that comes with it. That’s why they want to brand the interim president as a radical right-winger who is pulling off a coup with Washington’s help.

Enemies of democracy, including Cuba and Iran, will try to hold on to their power in Venezuela even if it means a bloodbath. In preparing for this possibility, Mr. Guaidó doesn’t have to worry only about Mr. Maduro’s supporters but also about the weasels who want to seize control of the opposition movement.
Title: GPF: Russia wavering?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 18, 2019, 10:47:30 AM


Is Russia wavering on Maduro? Russia has been one of the most important, stalwart supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. But over the weekend, an unnamed Gazprombank source told Reuters that the lender has frozen the accounts of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA to avoid running afoul of U.S. sanctions. Moscow hasn't officially said anything about it, and PDVSA strongly denied the report, calling it right-wing American propaganda. At this point, it's difficult to verify the report itself, but if true, the potential implications of the report are significant for the Maduro government’s future. One of the main ways the U.S. has been working to buttress opposition leader and self-declared president Juan Guaido has been to cut off the Maduro government's sources of income. It also may suggest a basis for some kind of understanding or negotiations between the U.S. and Russia. That’s all mostly speculation at this point, but there's enough smoke here to begin asking questions.
Title: Trump speech in Miami on Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 19, 2019, 06:46:12 PM
30 minutes. Important.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2019/02/trump-the-twilight-hour-of-socialism.php
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 20, 2019, 08:14:22 AM
Tangentially I note this bodes well for the Trump's support with a substantial portion of the Latino vote in general and the Florida vote in particular in 2020.

The wider chattering class consciousness tends to see all Latinos as lefty disposed Mexicans.  Reality is quite a bit more complicated than that.

Maybe this has something to do with Trump's surge to above 50% support among Latinos.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 20, 2019, 08:36:40 AM
Tangentially I note this bodes well for the Trump's support with a substantial portion of the Latino vote in general and the Florida vote in particular in 2020.

The wider chattering class consciousness tends to see all Latinos as lefty disposed Mexicans.  Reality is quite a bit more complicated than that.

Maybe this has something to do with Trump's surge to above 50% support among Latinos.

Right.  Note that he went to Miami to deliver the speech.  In this particular case, doing the right thing is good politics.  The Sanders and AOCs of the Left are way out of step, "on the wrong side of history", on this.

IF Trump doubles the black Republican vote and approaches 50% with Hispanics, Dems are in deep trouble.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 20, 2019, 10:00:57 AM
Rubio is not stupid about Latin American affairs, and many Venezuelans have been setting up in Florida for many years now.  Combined with the Cuban vote, and if the felon vote is not strong, we may yet win Florida.
Title: Gatestone
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 25, 2019, 10:19:32 PM
How the Trump Administration Should Counter Putin's Policies in Ukraine and Venezuela
by Jiri Valenta  •  February 25, 2019 at 5:00 pm
             
   If Nicolás Maduro is removed from office in Venezuela, Putin might act as he did when a popular revolution overthrew Yanukovych in Ukraine, in 2014: with a surprise invasion of the Crimea. This time, Putin may launch a surprise naval and land attack on Mariupol, set up a land bridge from Crimea to Russia and continue intensifying his attempt to strangle Ukraine's economy in order to subjugate Ukraine to Russia. Trump needs to take immediate preemptive measures to prevent Putin from doing that by increasing naval aid to Kiev.
   So far, Putin seems to have been counting on a lack of American resolve regarding Venezuela, and has just succeeded in getting China to support him.
   If America abdicates its role in Venezuela, you can bet Russia will eventually build intelligence facilities there. Russia has also been providing Nicaragua with "sophisticated weaponry," including "T-72 tanks, war boats, warplanes, and powerful bombs."
   Above all, President Trump must continue as he is doing now, to work towards liberating the Venezuelan people. Any hesitation will be counterproductive.
Title: Woolsey Tump should invade Venezuela like Reagan invaded Grenada
Post by: ccp on March 08, 2019, 07:33:09 PM
 :-o :-o  not sure I agree here.  Venezuela is not a small island of 100,000 people.

I remember watching our helicopter get shot out of the sky from a hilltop from a missile fired from an old fort

the destroyer responded by firing at the fort which shook and shuddered and rumbled.
smoke then oozed out the windows.
from then on the fort was 100% silent

but i digress:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/woolsey-venezuela-grenada-cuba/2019/03/08/id/906150/
Title: Re: Woolsey Tump should invade Venezuela like Reagan invaded Grenada
Post by: G M on March 08, 2019, 08:19:43 PM
:-o :-o  not sure I agree here.  Venezuela is not a small island of 100,000 people.

I remember watching our helicopter get shot out of the sky from a hilltop from a missile fired from an old fort

the destroyer responded by firing at the fort which shook and shuddered and rumbled.
smoke then oozed out the windows.
from then on the fort was 100% silent

but i digress:

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/woolsey-venezuela-grenada-cuba/2019/03/08/id/906150/

We need to lose one war at a time.
Title: Re: Venezuela, Socialism Dies in Darkness - pj media
Post by: DougMacG on March 10, 2019, 01:35:15 PM
Nicolás Maduro, FORMER President of Venezuela, TAKE THE DEAL.  I believe he was offered free passage out of Venezuela.  Add some amnesty to the deal and take it.  You have nothing left to offer your former country. You already destroyed it and have no more wealth to confiscate and no other way out.  [My view]
--------------------------------

https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/socialism-dies-in-the-darkness/

[Power grid down] [Critics of Maduro say]:  insufficient investment by the government is the cause, following the 2007 nationalization of the electricity sector.

BTW, We should nationalize all the industries they did - and expect a different result!
Title: Stratfor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 14, 2019, 12:44:00 PM
What Happened

According to a Reuters report released March 12, partially recognized interim President Juan Guaido is preparing new legislation for Venezuela's oil and gas sector that would allow companies other than the country's state-owned energy company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), to operate oil and gas fields. The proposed reforms, which Guaido's allies are presenting at an energy conference in Houston this week, are expected to be released for debate in Venezuela's National Assembly in the coming days.

Guaido's reforms would dismantle PDVSA's monopoly over Venezuela's oil and gas sector by no longer requiring its involvement in every project. In doing so, the laws would fundamentally reverse the country's highly nationalistic regulatory environment in place since former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry more than a decade ago.
Why It Matters

By proposing ambitious energy reforms, Guaido is ensuring Venezuelans that he has a rescue plan for the country's recovery should he gain more power. Venezuela's oil and gas sector is the main generator of revenue for the government, and its revitalization is thus paramount to address other factors plaguing Venezuela's recovery, such as its overseas debt obligations and decaying infrastructure.

There is a fair chance Guaido's reforms will pass the National Assembly, which is currently controlled by parties that support his campaign to unseat Maduro. Actually implementing the plan, however, will be a challenge so long as President Nicolas Maduro continues to control the military and, by proxy, the oil sector.

Venezuela's oil sector will still be an expensive and high-risk investment for foreign suitors, especially if they don't already have an established presence in the country.

Even if a transition from Maduro occurred and the new plan for Venezuela's oil sector went into effect, jump-starting investment into the sector — which has seen production collapse in recent years amid the country's ongoing economic and political crisis — would be no easy feat for Maduro's successor, whether that be Guaido or someone else. The country's oil and gas fields have long been neglected, and the heavy oil fields in the Orinoco Basin are also expensive to produce. After suffering years of underinvestment, some of the reservoirs are likely damaged and in need of costly repairs and upgrades to allow the conversion of heavy oil into a more easily transported form. This will make Venezuela an expensive and high-risk investment for foreign suitors, especially if they don't already have an established presence in the country.

And even if enacted, questions over how long the proposed reforms — which are modeled off of Colombia's and Mexico's energy reforms introduced over the last two decades — would remain in effect would give investors pause. While Colombia's reforms have been consistently backed by successive pro-business presidents, new Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's efforts to reverse Mexico's energy reforms show that if the political winds shift in a Latin American country prone to left-wing and populist movements — like Venezuela is — energy reforms may not last.
Title: Russian troops in Venezuela?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 24, 2019, 03:11:23 PM


https://taskandpurpose.com/russian-troops-arrive-venezuela?utm_content=bufferd376a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer&fbclid=IwAR04LhQj9PpHjOj0gWbghudVizEEON-kAa3Ms49Uvv88ZMvlDHiev_LN1b4

The site seems to have credibility:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/task-and-purpose/
Title: POTH: Cuban Doctors withheld treatment to compel Maduro votes
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 25, 2019, 01:20:30 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/17/world/americas/venezuela-cuban-doctors.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR0jYrxvinkc6hKZ03wIoQDSTIwLyNGzhB9WJLyq90V97Qw9R-QiihndfQA
Title: WSJ: Calls on President Trump to act
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 25, 2019, 04:45:39 PM
second post

The stakes for American interests keep rising in Venezuela, as Vladimir Putin is now moving his little green men to keep dictator Nicolás Maduro in power. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called his Russian counterpart Monday after Russian air force planes carrying about 100 troops arrived in Caracas Saturday.


“The continued insertion of Russian military personnel” risks “prolonging the suffering of the Venezuelan people who overwhelmingly support” interim President Juan Guaidó, the State Department said in a statement. It added that Mr. Pompeo called on Russia to “cease its unconstructive behavior and join other nations” that want a better future for Venezuela.

This isn’t Ukraine next to Russia, or Syria in the Middle East. This Russian military provocation is in America’s backyard, and the Trump Administration will have to do more in response than issue statements or phone calls of disapproval. The Maduro regime’s fortress socialism is spreading millions of refugees and havoc throughout the region. President Trump needs to decide if he is going to let Mr. Putin get away with it.
Title: Stratfor: Is Russia throwing in with Maduro?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 25, 2019, 10:39:36 PM
 

Is Russia Throwing Its Lot in With Maduro?

What Happened

Russia is seemingly upping the stakes in Venezuela's standoff — for friend and foe alike to see. In a deliberately visible event, two Russian aircraft reportedly landed at Simon Bolivar International Airport in Caracas on March 22. One plane arrived with 100 Russian military personnel, including the chief of staff of the ground forces, Gen. Vasily Tonkonshkurov, while the other landed with 35 tons of unspecified military equipment. According to an unnamed Venezuelan military official, the Russian forces are there as part of an agreement to assist the South American country in military training and engage in cooperation.

The Big Picture
________________________________________
Its economy in tatters, Venezuela falls further into the abyss with each passing day. Because of the country's deep economic crisis and international pressure, President Nicolas Maduro could be forced to abandon his position, yet and he and his supporters — including key international backers like Russia — are trying to delay his departure for as long as possible. Now, Russia has reportedly upped the ante in the country by deploying more troops, possibly with the aim of prolonging Maduro's stay in power.
________________________________________
Venezuela's Unraveling
Why This Matters

The Russian soldiers could be the first wave of additional troops that will arrive and remain in Venezuela. A greater Russian deployment would raise the stakes of a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, as the use of military force to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro could ignite a direct confrontation with Russian military forces — something that Moscow could bank on the United States wishing to avoid.

Naturally, a semi-permanent Russian deployment could complicate U.S. efforts to oust Maduro, but it would allow Moscow to make strategic inroads into Washington's near abroad and deprive foreign energy companies the prospect of greater investment opportunities in the short term. But given Venezuela's importance to the United States, especially due to its geographic proximity, Washington could seek to counter Russia's actions in Venezuela with a more forceful reaction.

Russia's Calculations

If Russia does deploy even more forces to Venezuela, it would have to consider the size of the force. Realistically, Moscow's options run the gamut from a token force to a larger-scale mission along the lines of its intervention in Syria.

A larger deployment would enable the country to bolster the Maduro government more effectively against internal threats, such as a military coup or a significant armed revolt. It would also allow Russia to spread its forces around the country, potentially deterring a U.S. intervention under the assumption that the United States would hesitate to launch military operations in Venezuela if it feared Russian casualties. In effect, Russia is calculating that the United States is unlikely to risk a wider war with Russia just to topple Maduro's government. Indeed, there is a precedent for such Russian behavior, as Moscow's increased presence in Syria restricted the United States' ability to strike and, ultimately, oust President Bashar al Assad.

The prospect of a larger Russian deployment could even spur the United States to move early to intervene before Russia can entrench itself militarily.

While a larger deployment would offer Russia greater ability to pursue its objectives in the country, it would also present some significant drawbacks, with cost being the most obvious concern. Yet another Syrian-sized deployment would place additional strain on Russia's ability to project force, especially since Venezuela is much farther away than the Levant. A larger, more visible deployment could also ensconce Russia in a potential quagmire, exposing its forces to more dangers and threats in the event that security worsens in the country. But there are potentially graver concerns for Moscow as well: An enhanced Russian military presence in Venezuela might not actually deter the United States from acting against Maduro. What's more, the prospect of a larger Russian deployment could even spur the United States to move early to intervene before Russia can entrench itself militarily.

A smaller deployment would offer Moscow less room to maneuver, but it would not expose Russia to as much risk. A more limited deployment would be less expensive and offer Russia greater flexibility, as it could withdraw its forces much more rapidly in the event that Venezuelan security deteriorates. And while a smaller deployment is likely to present less of an impediment to the United States, it would also put fewer Russian troops in harm's way, thereby decreasing the chances of a wider military conflict.

What to Watch For

So far, Russia has sent few forces to Venezuela, and even then, most of these troops have been on temporary missions. The deployments include Wagner Group mercenaries, rotations of heavy bombers and the latest arrivals on March 22. Accordingly, we will be looking for indications that Russia is preparing to upgrade its presence in Venezuela by deploying troops for longer periods and preparing more forces and materiel for missions to the country. If the Russian government seriously intends to bolster Maduro, it is likely to deploy military forces in and around Caracas, as well as near oil production and export infrastructure.

Of course, the U.S. reaction to this latest Russian move will also be on our radar. Thus far, there is no major indication that the United States is mulling a serious military intervention to preempt greater Russian activity in the country, but this could change if the Maduro government — emboldened by Russian reinforcements — conducts a bloody crackdown on its opponents.
A smaller deployment would offer Moscow less room to maneuver, but it would not expose Russia to as much risk as a larger deployment.

The U.S. strategy so far has been to focus on economic coercion to cripple the Venezuelan government and encourage military defections at the same time as it collaborates with Colombia and Brazil to contain the fallout. The United States will also evaluate the longer-term implication that Russia could establish a military foothold in the Caribbean basin, as that would undermine the core tenets of the Monroe Doctrine, complicating the U.S. imperative to prevent foreign powers from interfering in what it perceives to be its geopolitical domain.

For the moment, the threat of U.S. military intervention has hampered the Venezuelan government's attempts to crack down on growing internal dissent. Indeed, Maduro's government is reluctant to arrest or exile the partially recognized interim president, Juan Guaido, for fear of kick-starting a potential U.S. military intervention.

But if Maduro begins repressing the political opposition and other internal dissenters because he believes Russian forces have effectively eliminated the threat of a U.S. intervention, Venezuela's crisis will develop along two broad possible paths. On one hand, Maduro's opponents may perceive the Russian deployment as a sign they must act against the government sooner, rather than later. Depending on the extent of the plans to unseat Maduro, dissidents within the armed forces may attempt a coup before extensive Russian military deployments or a severe crackdown make that option impossible. On the other hand, the threat of a greater backlash from the government could convince officers sitting on the fence to swing back to the president's camp, making a coup much more difficult to carry out. Whatever the case, the prospects of a greater Russian presence on the shores of the Caribbean is likely to reshuffle the deck on Venezuela.
Title: Lefty stupidities about Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 01, 2019, 02:13:56 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/opinion/contributors/venezuela-us-hands-off-joanna-hausmann.html?fbclid=IwAR16N55vBZ2Rdycytka6Av8XGKEGrsZ5Fkm4lCZSW5IyTRs-egbKUbAtQ_s
Title: Cubans behind Maduro
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 01, 2019, 02:25:01 PM
second

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/maduro-survived-lots-help-cuban-100000745.html?fbclid=IwAR07yJTD2T07MCwfeYVWv1Gs3BWlBT75iP6ugnhICeb36vYfVRt0OWroKZU
Title: Stratfor: Tide is turning on the opposition
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 17, 2019, 06:08:56 AM


In Venezuela, the Tide Is Turning on the Opposition
A citizen shows his support for Venezuela's current president, Nicolas Maduro, (pictured in the poster on the left), as well as former President Hugo Chavez.
(FEDERICO PARRA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

    The continued allegiance of high-ranking military officials remains the main obstacle to opposition efforts to unseat Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. 
    Encouraging officers to desert Maduro and support opposition leader Juan Guaido will be difficult, given the government's ability to threaten or bribe them into remaining loyal.
    To expedite Maduro's exit, the United States will increase sanctions against his government and directly dissuade foreign energy companies from doing business in Venezuela. 
    Maduro's government has also begun laying the foundation for Guaido's arrest, which would complicate and potentially stall the opposition and U.S. push for regime change.

For the first time since opposition leader Juan Guaido announced his bid to unseat President Nicolas Maduro in January, efforts at regime change in Venezuela face the real risk of failure. Though Guaido is free to move about the country and rally crowds against Maduro, there are still no signs he has the support of the key military commanders needed to initiate a prompt and relatively peaceful political transition, despite the United States and the opposition's best efforts. As long as his military remains loyal, Maduro's government will remain in Caracas — leaving Guaido, as well as other prominent opposition figures in Venezuela, vulnerable to a crackdown that could end his bid for power altogether.

The Big Picture

Venezuela's resurgent political opposition has been working to oust President Nicolas Maduro for nearly three months — but so far, to no avail. Despite rising sanctions pressure and the threat of military intervention from the United States, Maduro's government and his military's loyalty remain intact. And as a result, the chances that Venezuela's left-wing government can delay its departure for months, or potentially longer, are rising.

The Loyalty of the Military

The continued allegiance of high-ranking officials in the military remains the chief hurdle to opposition efforts to overthrow Maduro. The opposition's efforts at creating a military schism have so far failed. Commanders did not quickly desert Maduro in the wake of severe U.S. sanctions in January as the United States had hoped for. Instead, they have remained by his side, likely convinced by a combination of threats and financial incentives.

To seriously threaten Maduro, the opposition needs enough military commanders to come to its side, likely by convincing them that the new government will allow them to keep their privileges, power and — in some cases — ill-gotten gains. Any such amnesty agreement would, in theory, allow them to leave power without facing greater repercussions of arrest, imprisonment or extradition to the United States. However, it's unlikely that opposition negotiations will yield a quick political transition. Financial incentives for military officials to remain in power are too great, and the Maduro government will continue to intimidate, bribe or arrest officers perceived to be talking with the opposition.

In addition, the recent arrest of former military intelligence chief Hugo Carvajal has cast a cloud over opposition efforts to sway military officials. Nearly two months after declaring his allegiance to Guaido, Carvajal was arrested April 13 in Spain under a U.S. warrant on cocaine trafficking charges. His successful extradition to the United States would likely have a chilling effect on other military officers thinking about defecting to the opposition — especially since some commanders are involved in trafficking activities that could also land them in a U.S. prison.
Tightening the Noose of U.S. Sanctions

In an attempt to accelerate Maduro's exit, the United States will turn up the sanctions heat by implementing secondary sanctions that prohibit other countries' companies from doing business with Venezuela's state-run energy sector. Signs that Washington might also decide to pressure specific European energy companies to reduce their business ties with Caracas' natural gas sector have emerged following the recent meeting between the U.S. special representative for Venezuela and officials at the Spanish company Repsol. Repsol and Italian company Eni own stakes in an offshore natural gas joint venture that accounts for roughly 15 percent of Venezuela's total gas production. Since Venezuela reinjects natural gas into wells to keep pumping oil, if Repsol and Eni were to reduce their presence in Venezuela, the latter's oil production would plummet even more sharply.

But military commanders' loyalty to Maduro has so far withstood the increasing weight of U.S. sanctions, and will likely continue to hold strong despite these new threats from Washington — even as the country's economy and infrastructure crumble around it.

With Guaido in jail, military dissidents cowed into submission and commanders willing to repress political opponents, Maduro could remain in power for months if not years.

On April 2, the government took the first step to justify Guaido's arrest by stripping the opposition leader of his legal immunity. Maduro had been reluctant to go directly after Guaido — likely in fear of heavier sanctions or military intervention from the United States, and the resulting threat this would pose to the unity of his military commanders. Thus, such a bold move signifies that Maduro and his inner circle are gambling they can mitigate the effect of heavier sanctions on military unity by cracking down on key opposition figureheads, such as Guaido and those close to him, and dissident military forces. With Guaido in jail, military dissidents cowed into submission, and military commanders willing to repress political opponents, Maduro's government could remain in power for at least several more months, if not years.

The looming 2020 presidential election in the United States could also play a role in determining when and how soon Maduro makes his exit. Incumbent President Donald Trump has prioritized regime change in Venezuela. Should Trump fail to secure a second term in 2020, his successor might be less willing to bet on an opposition bid.

Of course, just because a delayed Maduro departure is becoming more likely doesn't make it inevitable. A covert push by lower-ranking military officers to remove Maduro could still prove successful, as could the opposition's efforts to sway higher-ranking commanders to join their side. And the country's increasingly dire economic situation and rapidly crumbling infrastructure — which recently manifested in a monthlong series of nationwide blackouts — could also fuel more riots and crackdowns in poorer neighborhoods and, in turn, spur certain military commanders to split from the government.

But as it stands, what seems most certain is that Maduro's government is gearing up for a crackdown that could possibly result in Guaido's arrest or extradition. Absent a viable opposition figure to seize the presidency, Maduro's armed forces will be even less likely to leave his side. And as a result, the United States will find its path to removing the Venezuelan president largely blocked off — that is, barring direct military intervention
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 19, 2019, 07:12:32 AM
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/04/despite-threatening-it-trump-keeping-military-out-venezuela/156416/?oref=defenseone_today_nl
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: G M on April 19, 2019, 12:22:16 PM
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/04/despite-threatening-it-trump-keeping-military-out-venezuela/156416/?oref=defenseone_today_nl

He should keep us out of the eutopia the Venezuelan people wanted.

Title: Venezuelans regret allowing themselves to be disarmed
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 30, 2019, 04:08:17 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuelans-regret-gun-prohibition-we-could-have-defended-ourselves?fbclid=IwAR29OJD-xiVFMUQGm8K7QAElbqZ5FGhp9MezGiXTGEb8jyyZy-6B-FiQ7TM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/apr/30/venezuela-national-guard-armoured-vehicle-drives-into-protesters-video?fbclid=IwAR38F3w4uZtcAmfbOL2CgdGxDNoll-9sVy1EU3FhlVIye4S8RcPYk6_i1h0

Also, today on Cavuto, Gen. Keane spoke of several hundred Russian military (including 400 of the Wagner group, of which we last heard when Mattis killed 200 of them in Syria) propping up Gordito Maduro, aided and abetted by Cuban military/security folk.  Should they succeed in propping up Gordito, Keane spoke of Russia (and China and Iran) establishing a beachhead there similar to the Russia-Syrian relationship.

Title: Re: Venezuelans regret allowing themselves to be disarmed
Post by: G M on April 30, 2019, 09:48:08 PM
https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuelans-regret-gun-prohibition-we-could-have-defended-ourselves?fbclid=IwAR29OJD-xiVFMUQGm8K7QAElbqZ5FGhp9MezGiXTGEb8jyyZy-6B-FiQ7TM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2019/apr/30/venezuela-national-guard-armoured-vehicle-drives-into-protesters-video?fbclid=IwAR38F3w4uZtcAmfbOL2CgdGxDNoll-9sVy1EU3FhlVIye4S8RcPYk6_i1h0

Also, today on Cavuto, Gen. Keane spoke of several hundred Russian military (including 400 of the Wagner group, of which we last heard when Mattis killed 200 of them in Syria) propping up Gordito Maduro, aided and abetted by Cuban military/security folk.  Should they succeed in propping up Gordito, Keane spoke of Russia (and China and Iran) establishing a beachhead there similar to the Russia-Syrian relationship.

(https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Screen-Shot-2019-04-30-at-20.43.04.png)
Title: Venezuela uprise through social media crackdown
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 01, 2019, 06:30:38 AM
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/04/maduros-media-crackdown-fails-protests-overwhelm-caracas/156662/?oref=defenseone_today_nl
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 01, 2019, 06:32:41 AM
Apparently Gordito Maduro is hanging out at a military base staffed by Cubans.  I'm hearing there are 20-25k Cuban security forces in the country and some 400-500 Russians and that inflation is well over 1,000,000 percent.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on May 01, 2019, 03:18:15 PM
Apparently Gordito Maduro is hanging out at a military base staffed by Cubans.  I'm hearing " and that inflation is well over 1,000,000 percent.

"inflation is well over 1,000,000 percent."
Have we won the argument yet that the Venezuelan way is no way to run an economy?
At some point can't we just say they don't have a local currency?

"there are 20-25k Cuban security forces in the country and some 400-500 Russians"

The US is not supposed to militarize the conflict with any forces but our enemies already did.  Just thinking aloud but maybe we should send 25k "security forces" to the Presidential Palace in Havana to discuss this and maybe close off the Russian UN delegation in NY until they exit the Venezuelan conflict. 
Title: Michael Moore on Venezuela 2013
Post by: G M on May 01, 2019, 11:13:01 PM
https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screen-Shot-2019-05-01-at-23.18.57.png

(https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screen-Shot-2019-05-01-at-23.18.57.png)

Title: Re: Michael Moore on Venezuela 2013
Post by: DougMacG on May 02, 2019, 06:22:39 AM
https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screen-Shot-2019-05-01-at-23.18.57.png

(https://static.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Screen-Shot-2019-05-01-at-23.18.57.png)

This captures it. The left tells us they don't want the Venezuelan type of socialism, but they do. They want those policies and different results.  They want the forced equality without the coercion.  It doesn't work that way.  Now that Venezuela imploded they say they want the Danish type of socialism, but Denmark is not socialist.

I went back in our threads to the posts at the time of the Michael Moore tweet, at the time of Chavez' death and a new election.  One post shows that the left was 100% with Chavez. Here is another describing all that is wrong in Venezuela, crime, hunger and financial collapse, were well known at that time:. That is of no matter to Michael Moore and the left.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/04/11/3339119/venezuelas-chance-to-move-forward.html

The Miami Herald | EDITORIAL
Venezuela’s chance to move forward

Sunday’s election in Venezuela promises to open a tumultuous new chapter in the history of that South American country. For the first time in 15 years, Hugo Chávez’s name is not on the ballot, but his presence is everywhere. This election is all about him and the legacy of a decade-and-a-half of misrule.

Under normal circumstances, in any democratic country, the electorate would be ripe for a change after 15 years of upheaval that have brought misery for many and created an exodus among those who could leave, many settling in South Florida.

Chronic power outages, food shortages, devaluations, rampant crime, corrupt government aided by communist Cuba — this is the legacy of Hugo Chávez.

For Venezuelans, the choice is clear: They can move forward, restoring the democracy that Venezuela once was, or they can watch their country continue to deteriorate under a Chávez apprentice like the official candidate, Nicolás Maduro, the hand-picked political heir and current vice president.

Not surprisingly, the betting is that Mr. Maduro will win, and for that the candidate can thank his late mentor. Over the course of prolonged tenure, Mr. Chávez created a political machine that sharply curtailed the possibility that the official presidential candidate could lose.

The way Mr. Chávez won election three times and consolidated his grip on Venezuela is no secret. He controlled all the levers of political power, including the council that makes the electoral rules, counts the votes and settles disputes. He used the government’s money and power to promote his candidacy in a way that no opposition political figure could possibly match.

He stifled the independent news media and systematically dismantled the independent institutions that could restrain his power, including the judiciary.

A onetime paratrooper and frustrated coup-plotter, Mr. Chávez stacked the military leadership with loyalists and carefully watched over the ranks to ensure that no one would try to topple him from power by force of arms, as he once tried to overthrow a democratic government in 1992.

Finally, he made sure to woo the country’s large underclass by inducements such as free housing and by lavishing political attention on them, though he failed to create a path to prosperity for anyone except his political cronies, who got rich off government contracts.

All of this poses a virtually insurmountable challenge for Henrique Capriles Radonski, an opposition governor and leader of the political front arrayed against the forces of the government. Hundreds of thousands have shown up at his rallies, attesting to the underlying hunger for change.

Clearly, the playing field is slanted in favor of the Maduro ticket. In an implicit admission of potential ballot chicanery, the government has pointedly rejected any role for international election observers, such as the OAS.

But even if he wins, success promises to be short-lived.

The 50-year-old former bus driver and union leader does not possess Mr. Chávez’s rhetorical gifts, wit or political skills. His limited ability will be put to the test as the economy continues to deteriorate and Venezuelans of all stripes become more restless.

Under this scenario, the political situation could degenerate swiftly. The United States and other democratic countries in the region should stand ready to denounce government abuses and support the advocates of democracy as Venezuela enters a dangerous period
Title: Re: Venezuela, The Left embraces anti-freedom
Post by: DougMacG on May 02, 2019, 08:43:37 AM
Heritage index of Economic Freedom, the last 3:
...
178  Cuba
179  Venezuela
180  North Korea

How to make a nation richer or poorer is not a mystery.
-----------------------------------------------

Socialism started in the ballot box, but people thought they were only voting to take away other people's rights, the rich, the capitalists, and they did.   

How did they take the rest of the freedoms?
https://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1307.msg117063#msg117063
Nothing says freedom like "give us all your guns".

And now it's lights out, water not running, food shelves empty, the currency is worthless and your free health care can't buy a band aid.  All that remains is the continuing admiration of the American Left.  Capitalism is out, mission accomplished.
Title: Venezuela and the Monroe Doctrine
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 03, 2019, 05:06:28 PM
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14178/venezuela-monroe-doctrine
Title: FP: Venezuela is armed to the hilt
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 06, 2019, 01:19:16 PM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/02/venezuela-is-armed-to-the-hilt/?fbclid=IwAR2GbVdQw9HM6HTjl4kJVPhDOYIJgb6T_sXVVndgZ2AxT_slmwJ61waQzYA
Title: George Friedman on Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 11, 2019, 06:21:29 PM


It’s time to take a break from my search for the meaning of the nation and turn my focus to specific countries. I will start with Venezuela, which has been experiencing a political and economic crisis for several years.

I spent a good deal of time in Venezuela in the 1990s. The reason for my being there was not clear, then or now, but it gave me some perspective on what’s happening in the country today. My first flight into Maiquetia airport was at night. On the approach, I could see a mountain, all lit up with what appeared to be lights lining the streets of the capital, Caracas. As we landed and deplaned, I realized that it was not Caracas at all that I was looking at.

It turned out that I was quite a distance from the capital, and the marvelous city I thought I had been watching was actually a shantytown, or a barrio. The mountain was actually a hill and the lights were lining the jagged paths between the settlements. They were powered by stolen electricity, as hundreds of illegally attached cables hung from electrical wires, running into the barrio randomly scattered. The possibility of catastrophic fire seemed a certainty, yet the residents managed to live their lives, diverting water in pipes and handling sewage the best they could. The barrios housed the unemployed and criminals, but it was also the place where working stiffs raised families. They mingled with the rest of the city during the day and then went back to the barrio and their families at night.

(click to enlarge)

On occasion, I was invited to have lunch at one of the most beautiful places I have been in my travels. It was an exclusive club, historic and meticulously maintained, that overlooked the city. The men and women were dressed to perfection in a way that spoke of old money. I was told that this was the club of the “owners of the valley.” I was also told that Caracas had once belonged to only a few families. On my visits, I could see business being conducted at one table, politics at another, and the next generation being introduced to each other at the third. I remember the hush that enveloped the club. There were no loud voices, nor any tension to be seen. It was a place of casual power.

I also had the opportunity to visit the state-run oil company, PDVSA, which was the engine powering the Venezuelan economy. The facility was well-maintained. The people who worked there were engineers, marketers, financial managers and public affairs personnel. But when I spoke with the people at the top, the illusion of technocracy vanished. These were not the owners of the valley or inhabitants of the barrio. They were tough, smart politicians who knew surprisingly little about the petroleum business but a great deal about how PDVSA fit into the rough-and-tumble world of Venezuelan politics. That was why they were there. A few floors down you could talk to a petroleum engineer who graduated from Texas A&M. On the top floor were what I would call the well-connected “hard men” who ran the company.

Some were clearly part of the established elite, but others had muscled their way to the top in alliance with the elite, an alliance that was clearly tilting to the hard and not particularly quiet men. But the entire edifice was built on two foundations. One was the experts who kept the oil flowing. The other were those living in the barrio, needed for the grunt work of the economy but excluded from any of the pleasures.

There is much more to Venezuela, from Lake Maracaibo to the deep jungle that covers much of the country. But in the 1990s, the barrios, the descendants of the owners of the valley, the hard men who controlled PDVSA, and the technocrats who kept it running seemed to me its center. But the center couldn’t and didn’t hold.

Hugo Chavez became president through the support of the people of the barrios. But the barrios had their own political leaders – the heads of the gangs that controlled the neighborhoods. Chavez couldn’t win the support of the barrios without the approval of the gang leaders, and so Chavez had no choice but to deal with them.

The people of old money were beyond Chavez’s reach. Much of their wealth was in the United States, where they also had citizenship. Many of them worked with Chavez; having gone through many chapters of Venezuelan history, they saw Chavez as just another chapter.

Chavez, however, had trouble bridging the gap between political promises and social reality. He came to power speaking for the barrios, but his debt to the powers in the barrios was substantial. They wanted money, and they wanted it now. Chavez didn’t fully trust the military command structure (he blamed them for not preventing the 2002 coup). He therefore needed the barrio toughs, who would support him only to the extent that he funneled aid to them. A new ecosystem emerged, dominated by the alliance of Chavez and the rulers of the barrios. The problem for Chavez was getting money to maintain this system.

Gutting the old money that remained had to be done gently. It maintained the all-important international financial relationships Venezuela had always relied on, so Chavez had to turn to the same source that the old political elite used, PDVSA. But Chavez’s need for money was more intense than in the old regime. He had to keep the barrios happy, and that was expensive.

Chavez started diverting more and more money from PDVSA, and in so doing, he cut into the standard of living of its employees. They were at first hopeful about Chavez, then resigned to more of the same, then frightened by the empowered barrios and the people sent to squeeze PDVSA. There was a vast diaspora of PDVSA employees, who can now be found in oil companies around the world. The problem this left for Chavez was that without PDVSA’s professionals, the company declined. The harder Chavez squeezed, the less he got. His supporters expected rewards he increasingly could not deliver.

The barrios were restless, and the middle class and the old money had fled. Enter the Cubans. In exchange for discounted oil, Cuba acted as a bodyguard for Chavez’s regime. The Cuban operatives were tough, trained and not eager to be obvious. And so, his regime, now led by Nicolas Maduro, survives to this day, supported by the Cubans and those in the barrios who still expect to be rewarded for their loyalty.

In the end, the barrios of today are similar to those I saw when I first arrived. The owners of the valley now sit in clubs in California or France, having timed their exits wisely. It was the deterioration of PDVSA that did the regime in. But Chavez had no choice. He was elected by promising more than he could deliver to men who didn’t like to be disappointed.

Perhaps the best ending in this story is the tale of the hard men at PDVSA and their political allies. In 2002, they arranged a coup d’etat against Chavez. Chavez was held on an island off the Venezuelan coast, until he suddenly showed up back at Miraflores Palace. The story goes that the coupsters had been arguing over what cabinet positions they would take. They didn’t make certain Chavez was safely under guard, so Chavez got back onto the plane and had himself flown back to the capital. The coup failed, and Chavez continued to rule until his death in 2013.

And that story tells us a great deal about the realities of Venezuela
Title: GPF: Brazil and Colombia respond to Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 11, 2019, 06:34:13 PM
second post

Brazil and Colombia: Responses to the Venezuelan Crisis

As countries that share borders with Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil are most vulnerable to the fallout from the crisis.
By
Allison Fedirka -
May 9, 2019   
Download this article as PDF

Summary

Colombia and Brazil have adopted similar approaches to Venezuela and likely will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Both countries have followed the United States’ lead in opposing the Maduro government but for different reasons. Their responses to the crisis stem from their individual interests and the geopolitical forces driving their behavior.

Venezuela has been mired in an economic and political crisis for years. Hyperinflation, corruption, oil sector mismanagement and plummeting energy exports have spelled disaster for the country’s economy. The U.S. has led the international response against President Nicolas Maduro, but two of Venezuela’s neighbors – Brazil and Colombia – have been critical partners in the campaign to remove Maduro from office. Their role in opposing his government stems from the fact that they are the most vulnerable to the mass migration and general instability resulting from the crisis. They have approached the issue in similar fashion so far, calling for Maduro’s removal but rejecting military intervention.

But what’s really driving their responses to the crisis? And why have they been among the region’s most vocal opponents of the Maduro government? Before we can answer these questions, we need a geopolitical basis for understanding South America’s place in the world and Brazil’s and Colombia’s most pressing geopolitical interests. South America is a region that gets little attention in geopolitical discussions, in part because the continent lies on the edge of the global system. It interacts with major geopolitical players but generally doesn’t drive major shifts, disruptions and developments. This doesn’t mean, however, that the basic rules of geopolitics aren’t at play in South America. In fact, they can help us identify the interests of neighboring countries and foreign powers in a country like Venezuela and, therefore, how they may respond to the unfolding crisis. Using models developed by some of the top geopolitical theorists, this Deep Dive will lay out a framework for understanding South America’s connection to the global system and the Brazilian and Colombian reactions to the upheaval in Venezuela.

South America’s Model Behavior

Geopolitically, South America is part of the periphery of the global system. Located in the Southern Hemisphere, which accounts for roughly one-third of the world’s landmass and one-tenth of its population, the continent is fairly removed from the rest of the world. It’s separated from the Eastern Hemisphere by the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and connected to Central America by a short 140-mile (225-kilometer) border between Colombia and Panama.

In analyzing the behavior of South American nations, there are two common pitfalls. First, many tend to dismiss events on the continent as unimportant based on the erroneous belief that the periphery doesn’t matter. Second, there is a tendency to overemphasize politics and political leaders and treat them as geopolitically relevant. To avoid these pitfalls, we need to look at how some of the founding fathers of geopolitical theory – Alfred Thayer Mahan, Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman – framed South America in the global context.

As a former U.S. naval officer, Mahan believed that if a country could dominate the world’s oceans, it could dominate the world. This view served as the basis for the expansion of U.S. interests across the Western Hemisphere at the turn of the 20th century – which included the creation of a security perimeter that stretched into the Caribbean. The first step in this project was to reduce Spanish influence in the Caribbean so that the U.S. could emerge as the dominant power there, which was accomplished in part through the Spanish-American War. The second was to control the Isthmus of Panama, a strategic land bridge between the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean. The U.S. supported construction of a canal at the isthmus, which opened in 1914, so that it could control transit between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, a power that had enormous economic value.

(click to enlarge)

In contrast, English geographer Mackinder took a more European approach to geopolitics. He focused on land power rather than sea power as the determinant of a nation’s global status. Mackinder formulated the heartland theory, which defined the center of Eurasia as the world’s heartland and argued that the dominant global power would come from this region. Its coastal areas – much of Europe, the Middle East and East Asia – were seen as secondary powers and areas beyond Eurasia, including the entire Western Hemisphere, as largely irrelevant. Mackinder updated his model following the two world wars, elevating North America and the North Atlantic to a status almost equivalent to that of the heartland. South America, however, still played a minimal role in Mackinder’s updated model.

Spykman believed that Mackinder overemphasized the importance of the heartland and instead posited that the center of global power was in the rimland, the coastal areas around Eurasia. He viewed the Caribbean Sea and surrounding areas as the American Mediterranean because of their central location in the Western Hemisphere. He also believed that the dividing line between north and south in the Western Hemisphere was not the Isthmus of Panama but the northern edge of the Amazon. According to Spykman, then, the northern part of South America, including Colombia and Venezuela, was essentially part of North America and included in the American Mediterranean. He believed the U.S. needed to dominate the Caribbean to establish regional security and that the construction of the Panama Canal further increased the importance of the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean in U.S. strategy. For Spykman, the U.S. faced few challenges in the Western Hemisphere, but any threat to its domination of the hemisphere come from the southern cone.

There are two important takeaways from these three models. First, the Caribbean, which includes the northern coast of South America, plays a key role in U.S. maritime security. This explains why the U.S. has intervened in Caribbean conflicts and why developments in South America can be critical to U.S. interests. Second, the northern nations of South America represent a borderland between North and South America. Conflicts and instability in this region threaten to draw in countries from both continents, and the Venezuelan crisis is one key example of this.

Brazil’s Territorial Integrity

Geographically, Brazil is defined by three key features: its large size, its natural boundaries and its north-south divide. Brazil is the fifth-largest country in the world by landmass and has long faced the challenge of filling and controlling that space. Portugal was forced to colonize northeast Brazil (rather than use it as a trading post) and move south for both security and economic reasons. Shortly after the Portuguese arrived in the Americas, other European powers followed. While it had an agreement with Spain on how to divide their respective territories, no such deal existed with the U.K., France and the Netherlands – all three of which challenged Portuguese claims in the New World. The colony also needed land, labor and resources. Portuguese pioneers therefore pushed west for land on which to grow sugar cane and to find indigenous populations for enslavement.

Natural geographic barriers, however, limited Portuguese expansion beyond Brazil’s current borders. But in terms of security, its geography actually worked in its favor. Natural barriers insulated the country from the rest of South America and protected it from external threats. In the north, the Amazon’s dense forest and vast size prevented major military incursions from Venezuela, Colombia and Peru. Farther south, the massive Pantanal swamp fortified borders with Bolivia and Paraguay. In the east, the Atlantic Ocean protected Brazil from outside powers. The one area of geographic vulnerability is its flat southern border, though Uruguay provides some strategic depth there as a buffer state.

(click to enlarge)

Brazil’s north-south divide is a result of its climate, unevenly distributed natural resources and river systems. The south, which has a more hospitable climate than the northeast, is the location of the country’s major population centers and the vast majority of its wealth. Its two major river systems – the Parana River and the Amazon River – split the country between north and south. The Amazon system passes through dense jungle and flows into the North Atlantic, while the Parana system generally flows south where it merges with the Rio de la Plata, though some of its tributaries flow directly into the South Atlantic. The two systems do not cross paths and have fostered their own economic and population centers with little connection between them.

(click to enlarge)

These geographic features play critical roles in the models developed by the pioneers of Brazilian geopolitical theory, Carlos de Meira Mattos, General Golbery do Couto e Silva and Therezinha de Castro, in the mid-20th century. All three theorists emphasized the importance of territorial integrity – which is most at risk in the sprawling Amazon basin – and Brazil’s control over the South Atlantic.

This is where the Venezuelan crisis could have implications for Brazil’s broader geopolitical imperatives. Venezuela is just north of the Amazon, one of the most poorly integrated regions of Brazil. In fact, Roraima state isn’t even connected to Brazil’s electrical grid and gets its power from Venezuela. If Venezuela’s political crisis leads to military conflict or foreign military intervention, it could result in foreign forces pushing against Brazil’s borders. Any spillover into Brazilian territory could destabilize the area and disrupt connections to ports, making it even harder to reach and control this region. In the past, Brazil has opposed foreign involvement in management of the Amazon and permitted development and mining projects there because the government wants to maintain control over the whole region that falls within Brazil’s borders. This strategy helps Brazil repress any potential internal rebellion and provides strategic depth should an attack or blockade be waged on coastal areas.

Venezuelan migrants fleeing the crisis are also a challenge for Brazil. The flow of migrants toward and across the Brazilian border risks creating a borderland between the two countries that could pull the outer reaches of Brazil further away from its core. Another concern is that migrants who settle along the Brazilian border will compete with Brazilians for resources and jobs. Thus, early relief efforts involved flying Venezuelan migrants to areas farther south and settling them in larger cities. Brazil is also wary of delivering foreign humanitarian aid to Venezuelans from Brazilian territory, concerned that it could invite other kinds of external involvement in regional affairs. Brazil has therefore refused to deliver humanitarian supplies from other countries (including the United States) to Venezuela, insisting on providing only its own support.

Trade is another issue. Brazil has direct access only to the Atlantic Ocean, but its top trade partner, China, is a country that can be reached by sea only through the Pacific. To access the Pacific, therefore, it depends on sea lanes that run past Venezuela and the Caribbean to the Panama Canal. Any potential disruptions in this route – as a result of a conflict in Venezuela or a blockade to further isolate Maduro – could have major implications for the Brazilian economy.

Colombia’s Geographic Constraints

Unlike Brazil, Colombia is a bicoastal nation, meaning it has access to both the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. But this status is not nearly as advantageous as one might expect. When the Panama Canal opened in 1914, it became the most important corridor between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans in the Western Hemisphere. Colombia never developed into a good alternative to the canal because its various mountain ranges dissect the country, making overland transportation between coasts difficult. In addition, the vast majority of Colombia’s exports and imports transit through the Atlantic Ocean, so Pacific ports and infrastructure have been relatively neglected.

(click to enlarge)

Colombia’s two defining geographic features are the Andes Mountains and the Magdalena River. The Andes comprise roughly half of Colombia’s territory. (The other half is composed of the Amazon and Orinoco basins.) Just beyond the country’s Atlantic and Pacific coastlines, three distinct ranges of the Andes run across the entire length of the country’s territory, stretching from Ecuador to Venezuela. The majority of its population resides in different mountain valleys, which are poorly connected by land. The Magdalena River, however, helps integrate these disjointed parts of the country. An estimated 70-80 percent of the population lives near this river or one of its tributaries. It also facilitates the transport of goods between the interior and the Caribbean port cities of Barranquilla and Cartagena, both of which are relatively close to the Venezuelan border.

(click to enlarge)

Colombia has several geographic constraints that are difficult to overcome despite the country’s strategic location. According to leading Colombian geopolitical thinker Julio Londono Paredes, it was South America’s general disjointedness and difficult terrain that gave North America a substantial power advantage over its southern neighbor. Londono Paredes believed the formation of five confederations including Gran Colombia – which united present-day Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador into one entity from 1819 to 1831 – were necessary to ensure peace in South America.

But without such a union, Colombia remains weak in relation to other large Caribbean countries, particularly Mexico and Venezuela. Both countries have influence over the region in ways that Colombia does not. Mexico has historical ties to Central America (many Central American nations belonged to the same viceroy as Mexico during colonial times) and has used these links to help protect its interests on the western edge of the Caribbean. Venezuela’s islands in the southern Caribbean Sea give the country strategic depth and influence over sea lanes. Venezuela is also situated farther east along the Caribbean coast, giving it greater access to the sea and beyond.

Colombia has overcome some of these challenges by aligning with the United States on a number of issues, including how to handle Venezuela. The U.S. welcomes Colombia as a close ally in a region where it has had few in the past, and Colombia’s alignment with the U.S. gives it a boost in the regional power balance.

It’s an advantage Colombia needs given that it shares borders with five different countries and has three three-country borders. Colombia has had territorial disputes with each of its neighbors in the past, but tensions have run deepest with Venezuela, whose disputes over land and sea borders with Colombia have focused on resource-rich areas. The Venezuelan crisis threatens to reignite these tensions. Mass migration has forced Colombian authorities to dedicate more resources to border security, though thus far, it hasn’t prevented irregular crossings. For the most part, Colombia has welcomed the migrants, but it has also struggled to cope with the sheer number of Venezuelans, about 1.5 million in total, who have fled across the border. In fact, the influx has cost Colombia 0.5 percent of gross domestic product (or roughly $1.5 billion) per year, according to Colombian President Ivan Duque. Organized crime and drug trafficking are also concerns as groups involved in illicit activities operate more or less with impunity along the Colombia-Venezuela border, raising the possibility of military involvement from both sides. The country’s two major ports, Barranquilla and Cartagena, are close to the Venezuelan border, so any spillover violence or instability could disrupt some of Colombia’s most important trade hubs.

Considering all these variables, it makes sense that Colombia has taken the strongest stance against Maduro of any country in the region. It has joined the U.S. and several other nations, including Brazil, in recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president. Bogota doesn’t want the crisis to escalate into a full-blown civil war, but unlike other countries in the region, it can’t completely rule out military intervention because of the history of border disputes between the two countries, as well as the risk that the violence might spill over into Colombian territory.

Colombia needs U.S. support to protect its interests. Brazil, on the other hand, doesn’t have that same dependency on the U.S. For now, however, both Brazil and Colombia will cooperate with U.S. efforts to orchestrate Maduro’s departure because it aligns with their own national interests.
Title: O'Grady: Squeeze the Cubans
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 12, 2019, 03:14:56 PM
How to Liberate Venezuela
The free world needs to squeeze the power behind Caracas’s police state: Cuba.
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
May 12, 2019 3:20 p.m. ET
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro speaks in Havana, Dec. 14, 2016 Photo: yamil lage/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Venezuela’s fearsome intelligence service struck another blow against the democratic opposition last week by arresting Edgar Zambrano in Caracas. In detaining the vice president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, the thugs surrounding presidential pretender Nicolás Maduro not only put another hostage in their dungeon but also thumbed their noses at U.S. ultimatums to respect the rights of the opposition—or else.

They know that while the U.S. says the use of force is on the table, President Trump is loath to use it. With the rest of the region opposed to military intervention, Mr. Maduro’s minions feel safe from outsiders. They would feel far less secure if the international community put pressure where it belongs: on their homeland, Cuba.

Interim President Juan Guaidó remains free, but the regime now holds some 870 political prisoners, according to the Venezuelan nongovernmental organization Foro Penal. Since a failed uprising April 30, Mr. Maduro’s henchmen have doubled down on repression. The opposition is powerless to respond. Mr. Guaidó said Saturday he would seek U.S. military support.

Rescuing Venezuela starts with the recognition that the country is occupied. Russian military support is troubling—as is the Venezuelan-Iranian relationship, which I wrote about in November 2014. Tehran has likely planted sleeper cells throughout the country.

Yet it is Havana that has the most to lose if Mr. Maduro goes down. And it is Havana that is executing an aggressive daily ground game to protect him. This must first be acknowledged by the democracies that have recognized Mr. Guaidó as the rightful chief executive under the Venezuelan constitution. Then, to follow through, they need a strategy to squeeze the Cubans.

Cuban-born writer Carlos Alberto Montaner described the secret behind Mr. Maduro’s survival in a May 5 column for Miami’s El Nuevo Herald. “Loyalty and obedience emanate from respect or fear and Maduro is neither respected nor feared,” Mr. Montaner wrote. “Not only is this the attitude of the opposition. It is shared by military leaders, the regime’s apparatchiks and those people who serve them. That’s why Maduro only trusts ‘the Cubans.’ They made him the heir of the ‘eternal Commander’ ”—Hugo Chávez—“and they keep him in power.”

The main levers of power Cuba wields in Venezuela are its sophisticated intelligence apparatus and its crack military counterintelligence. The former head of the Venezuelan intelligence service, Manuel Christopher Figuera, trained and worked closely with Cuba. It was a mark of Cuban power that after he turned against Mr. Maduro during the April 30 showdown with Mr. Guaidó, he was forced to flee for his life and now is in hiding.

Cuba is thoroughly invested in Mr. Maduro’s survival because it needs Venezuelan subsidies. The money-grubbing Castros have wrecked the Cuban economy. What hasn’t been stolen has been destroyed through decades of brutal repression.

As Cuban-American economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago observed in March, Castro’s Cuba has been a dependency for 60 years. The Soviet Union poured $65 billion into the island from 1960-90. With the dissolution of the Soviet empire, aid to Cuba dried up and the 1990s were an extremely difficult period. But Venezuela picked up the subsidy slack when Chávez came to power in 1999. “At its peak in 2012, Venezuelan aid, subsidies and investment amounted to $14 billion, or close to 12% of gross domestic product,” Mr. Mesa-Lago wrote.

“Cuba is now facing its worst economic crisis since the 1990s,” Mr. Mesa-Lago explained. It refuses to reform its sclerotic economy—because economic power gives way to political power. Now its Venezuelan sugar daddy is cutting back on aid. Oil shipments to the island have been halved in recent years, and Caracas no longer has unlimited resources to pay the Castro regime for the tens of thousands of Cuban doctors, teachers, sports trainers and managers of ports and airports—not to mention security forces—in Venezuela.

Things will go from bad to worse for Havana if Mr. Guaidó is allowed to hold elections. This is why the Cubans are ruthlessly cracking down on the opposition while making the absurd proposal to the Lima Group that Havana ought to mediate a compromise solution. As if the fox ought to decide the fate of the hens. Defectors repeatedly testify that Cubans are behind the Venezuelan police state. It’s why the U.S. and its allies must shift their focus to Havana.

The Trump administration has been adding sanctions against the Cuban regime. Ships that carry oil from Venezuela to Cuba can no longer enter U.S. ports; Americans can now sue in U.S. courts over property confiscated by Cuba; and the ceiling on remittances from the U.S. has been reduced. Havana is feeling some heat. But it isn’t enough.

To persuade Cuba to exit Venezuela, the price of staying has to be higher than any benefits it still receives. That’s a hemispheric project, and it’s the best way to liberate Venezuela from tyranny.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on May 14, 2019, 07:04:53 AM
"Cuba is the main player in Venezuela.  Anyway, if we want to discuss, let's take it to the Venezuela thread."

yes they have thousands of troops there
I hope we don ' t militarily intervene in V because we are worried about kooba

that said Russia and China may be supporting Kooba as proxies to stir up trouble
and protect investments in V

just surmising
otherwise except for the humanitarian travesty thanks to Maduro and mafia soldiers and his Kooban mafia allies I am trying to figure why the heck we are considering our intervening militarily.

Another possibllity is the military option is just a bluff to pressure Maduro to hide in the mountains looking on how to escape to a villa in Switzerland or something

To me the murderous drug cartels south of our border are a far bigger threat.
I wish we could send in the tanks and drones to blast them to hell where they belong for what they do to us and the South of the border countries peoples
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 14, 2019, 08:24:42 AM
My understanding is that there are 20-25,000 Cuban troops/intel officers etc and that without them Gordo Maduro would be gone in a matters of days.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: ccp on May 14, 2019, 09:31:40 AM
"My understanding is that there are 20-25,000 Cuban troops/intel officers etc and that without them Gordo Maduro would be gone in a matters of days."

So do we invade Kooba?
Title: President Trump threatens embargo of Cuba over Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 14, 2019, 10:12:24 AM

https://apnews.com/8a18145f858e41e88475360b9a7decee
Title: US commander says Maduro is a mafia
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 23, 2019, 06:05:36 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/international/445127-top-us-commander-says-maduro-mafia-poses-threat-beyond-venezuela
Title: Re: US commander says Maduro is a mafia
Post by: DougMacG on May 23, 2019, 06:24:46 AM
https://thehill.com/policy/international/445127-top-us-commander-says-maduro-mafia-poses-threat-beyond-venezuela

As it turns out, Cuba helping to enforce the tragedy in Venezuela, was also a threat beyond their own borders.  Of course the communist, socialist, militarist oppressionists are a threat beyond their own borders.  Good to see people in high places recognizing real threats.
Title: cuba part of Venezuela mafia?
Post by: ccp on May 23, 2019, 07:38:05 AM
you mean Kooba still stirring up trouble?

but the Nobel prize winner (for peace) told us this just wasn't so that all we need to do is be friends?

I just don't get it.    :wink:
Title: GPF: Russia in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 03, 2019, 10:07:53 AM


Russia in Venezuela. Russia is withdrawing key defense advisers from Venezuela and Russian state defense contractor Rostec has cut its staff in Venezuela from 1,000 to just a few dozen, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The report also suggested that, after Rostec had completed construction of a helicopter training center in March, other projects such as the construction of a Kalashnikov production facility had been put on hold because the company doubted the Maduro government’s ability to pay up. Rostec told Interfax news agency on Monday that there was no truth to the report – that its presence in the country hadn’t changed. Russia’s ambassador to Venezuela also said the story was unfounded, telling RIA Novosti there had been no talk of backing out of commitments or cutting back Russian personnel. In the absence of reliable information either way, we would add that it would not make sense for Russia to withdraw in this manner now, especially considering the resilience the Maduro regime has exhibited in recent months.
Title: Stratfor: Corruption lies at the heart
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 25, 2019, 07:48:30 AM
Corruption Lies at the Heart of Venezuela's Chaos
By Eduardo Salcedo-Albaran
Board of Contributors

Numerous people wearing caps in the colors of the Venezuelan flag take part in a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro on Venezuela's day of independence.
(RAFAEL BRICEÑO SIERRALTA/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise.

Highlights

    Venezuela is suffering from unique humanitarian, economic and institutional crises, but the common root of all three problems is the country's widespread corruption.
    Officials in President Nicolas Maduro's government have absconded with billions of dollars from the public budget by abusing the official exchange rate.
    As the links between the humanitarian disaster and graft become more evident, it will increasingly become harder to stabilize Venezuela in the long run.

It's a humanitarian, economic and institutional crisis that has grabbed the world's attention. According to the United Nations refugee agency, more than 4 million Venezuelans left their country between 2015 and June 2019, seeking refuge in Colombia, Peru and Brazil. In the economic field, the International Monetary Fund projects that Venezuela's hyperinflation will reach a whopping 10 million percent this year. And in terms of institutions, the country has had two presidents since January: Nicolas Maduro, who is supported by the Venezuelan security forces but lacks diplomatic recognition from most of the West, and Juan Guaido, who enjoys Western support but lacks local military support.

But lost amid Venezuela's dire humanitarian, economic and institutional crises is the underlying cause that is fueling the country's chaos: corruption. Deeply ingrained at all levels of Maduro's government, corruption is devouring Venezuela's wealth as it exacerbates Caracas' other problems and complicates the prospect that the country will overcome its woes for some time to come.

Bringing Up the Rear

Since 2015, Venezuela has plumbed the depths of Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index (CPI), ranking 168 out of 180 countries and scoring no more than 17 or 18 points out of 100. By way of comparison, Burundi — whose long-time president has drawn criticisms for hanging on to power and clamping down on the opposition — ranked higher than Venezuela, earning 22 points in 2017.

In last year's CPI, in fact, Venezuela had Afghanistan (16 points), South Sudan (16) and Chad (19) to share for company. All three are countries that are characterized by weak and small economies, and none of them boast massive oil reserves — unlike Venezuela.

High levels of opaqueness, egregious public mismanagement, legal uncertainty, an overconcentration of power in Maduro's hands and a profound lack of checks and balances lie at the root of Venezuela's low CPI. Today, the country provides the perfect institutional conditions to foster graft on a macro scale unseen anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere. Even so, Venezuela's CPI score doesn't reflect the magnitude of the country's situation and the scandalous sums of money that have gone missing from the budget during the past decade. Indeed, no other country in the Americas has witnessed such a convergence between massive injections of cash due to booming oil prices and cases of money laundering, corruption and drug trafficking involving high-level officials.

Today, Venezuela provides the perfect institutional conditions to foster graft on a macro scale unseen anywhere else in the Western Hemisphere.

In a recent report, the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International reviewed cases of corruption and money laundering against Venezuelan officials and businesspeople in the United States, Colombia, Andorra and other countries in which Maduro's government has used the financial system to channel and launder profits gained through corruption.

And because of Maduro's extensive powers, the Venezuelan judiciary focuses on partial prosecutions that benefit the regime, meaning that real cases of graft involving the government never make it before a judge. As a result, it is only foreign jurisdictions that prosecute money laundering cases related to corruption in Venezuela.

Absconding With Billions

Brazil's "Lava Jato" (Car Wash) scandal, one of the biggest cases of transnational corruption ever recorded anywhere, drew international attention because of the huge bribes that changed hands — some of which reached $100 million. The Brazilian case, however, pales in comparison to what has happened in Venezuela.

To understand the magnitude of Venezuelan corruption, consider the amount of the public budget that went missing when authorities manipulated and abused official exchange rates to overpay loans to privileged companies involved in corruption. In one scheme that occurred in December 2014 and May 2015, Venezuela's national oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), acquired a loan of $41 million — corresponding to 7.2 billion Bolivars — from a certain firm before paying it back for a huge markup of $600 million, according to an indictment at the Southern District of Florida. According to the prosecution, payments like these went to companies that then used other fictitious firms to channel the money to friends and conspirators of officials inside PDVSA and Maduro's government. Ultimately, the shady dealings allowed officials in the national oil company and the government to abscond with $1.2 billion from the Venezuelan public budget as part of two loans.

But this is just one case. In another that the Southern District of Florida is also hearing, officials allegedly engaged in improper conduct that cost the budget more than $2.4 billion. Together, these two cases account for $3.6 billion in lost funds for Venezuela's public budget.

As the Democratic Republic of the Congo has shown, the convergence of massive corruption and abundant natural resources will almost inevitably degenerate into a situation in which people are victimized on a widespread scale. With Venezuela's crisis set to deepen — to the extent that it might result in famine and send millions of refugees streaming into the country's neighbors — the spotlight will soon fall more on the causal links between the humanitarian catastrophe and unprecedented corruption. Such a perfect storm of endemic corruption and humanitarian disaster will throw formidable obstacles in the way of any stabilization effort in the country or the region — thereby hindering even further the chances of a regime change promoted by the United States.

Eduardo Salcedo-Albaran is the director of Scientific Vortex Foundation Inc., a transnational research group and nonprofit that develops concepts, methodologies and inputs for public policy under integrative science principles. He is currently developing transdisciplinary research on transnational criminal networks in Colombia, Peru, Guatemala and Mexico.
Title: Re: Venezuela, China, Russia, Cuba, but no foreign intervention?
Post by: DougMacG on August 19, 2019, 11:52:45 AM
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/14/venezuela_china_russia__oh_my_110466.html
Extend  the waivers indefinitely.
-------------------------------------
Denny S, Hope all is well, please check in with us.
-------------------------------------
American reporting of Venezuela has been relatively quiet as at least 20 Democrats propose various elements of the Venezuela plan for the US economy.
-------------------------------------
How rich did they used to be?
"By 1950, as the rest of the world was struggling to recover from World War II, Venezuela had the fourth-richest GDP per capita on Earth. The country was 2x richer than Chile, 4x richer than Japan, and 12x richer than China!"
https://money.visualcapitalist.com/richer-poorer-venezuela-economic-tragedy/
Title: Re: Venezuela, China, Russia, Cuba, but no foreign intervention?
Post by: G M on August 19, 2019, 07:45:25 PM
You can vote your way into socialism, but you usually have to shoot your way out. This is why they disarmed Venezuela and want to disarm Americans now.


https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2019/08/14/venezuela_china_russia__oh_my_110466.html
Extend  the waivers indefinitely.
-------------------------------------
Denny S, Hope all is well, please check in with us.
-------------------------------------
American reporting of Venezuela has been relatively quiet as at least 20 Democrats propose various elements of the Venezuela plan for the US economy.
-------------------------------------
How rich did they used to be?
"By 1950, as the rest of the world was struggling to recover from World War II, Venezuela had the fourth-richest GDP per capita on Earth. The country was 2x richer than Chile, 4x richer than Japan, and 12x richer than China!"
https://money.visualcapitalist.com/richer-poorer-venezuela-economic-tragedy/
Title: Russia-Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 02, 2019, 08:14:22 AM


Oct. 2, 2019


What Moscow Really Wants From Venezuela


Russia has both economic and domestic political reasons for supporting the Maduro government.


By Ekaterina Zolotova


Throughout Venezuela’s ongoing political crisis, Russia has been among its staunchest supporters. Last week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, hoping for some reassurances of the Kremlin’s continued support for his administration amid the ongoing turmoil in his country and international pressure for him to step down. In September, the United States imposed new sanctions (against four shipping companies registered in Cyprus and Panama) aimed at stopping Venezuelan oil exports headed for Cuba. The U.S. also promised last week to provide the Venezuelan opposition with $52 million in aid. The European Union, meanwhile, introduced sanctions against seven members of the Venezuelan security and intelligence forces. Russia, however, hasn’t wavered in its support for Venezuela. Indeed, Moscow has not only foreign policy reasons to maintain strong relations with Caracas but domestic ones, too.
The two countries are long-time allies, but their ties peaked around 2012. Moscow considered Venezuela among its main strategic partners, provided generous loans and supplied a wide range of goods. Several Russian companies were involved in the development of Venezuelan oil fields, Russian-made KAMAZ trucks were in wide supply, and Russia participated in a pro-government housing construction program in Venezuela. But geopolitical tensions, as well as tough sanction policies against both Russia and Venezuela, significantly complicated Russia-Venezuela relations. High inflation and the risk of default in Venezuela also affected the willingness of Russian investors and exporters to do business with Venezuela and the ability of Venezuelan companies to sell their goods to foreign customers.
Nonetheless, the Kremlin has chosen to seek greater cooperation with Caracas for several reasons. First, from an economic perspective, Russia and Venezuela have much to gain from maintaining close ties. Both have large markets and production potential.


 

(click to enlarge)


Trade between the two has fluctuated over the years, however. When it comes to oil, Russian companies of course have an interest in Venezuela – the country, after all, has the largest oil reserves in the world, exceeding 300 billion barrels, according to OPEC. Some Russian oil companies have therefore invested in the Venezuelan energy sector. But in recent years, many Russian oil companies have left Venezuela, put off by the political uncertainty, security risks and general low quality of Venezuelan oil, not to mention the threat of sanctions. Yet a small group of companies, including Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, remains, despite U.S. threats to impose new penalties. In early September, for example, Washington said it was considering sanctions against Rosneft for its involvement in the Venezuelan oil sector; Rosneft, however, continues to purchase oil and develop fields in Venezuela.
Russia also sees Venezuela as a potential market for Russian wheat (wheat exports to Venezuela in 2018 increased by 33 percent year over year), mechanical engineering products and medical supplies. Such products could provide some relief from the scarcity issues plaguing Venezuela since the crisis began. For its part, Venezuela sees Russia as a potential buyer of its agricultural products. Russia already buys food products from other Latin American countries – these tend to be cheaper than Russian food products despite logistical costs and tariffs. In fact, Uruguay and Argentina account for 7 percent and 5 percent respectiely of Russian dairy imports. In addition, Argentina is the second-largest supplier of cheese to Russia after Belarus.
The Kremlin also has domestic political reasons for wanting to increase cooperation with Venezuela. It sees an opportunity to boost its approval rating by backing the Maduro government because Russian public opinion tends to be favorable toward Venezuela, and Latin America in general. A survey released in February by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center found that 57 percent of respondents were interested in current events in Venezuela. It also found that 20 percent of Russians see the deteriorating political and economic situation in Venezuela as a result of actions by other countries, particularly the United States. When it comes to the Venezuelan opposition and anti-government protesters, 15 percent said they felt indifferent, 12 percent felt distrust and 11 percent condemned them. Thus, if Moscow were to refuse to help Maduro, it might experience some backlash from the Russian public. Moreover, the amount of support Russia has provided – food supplies and a small number of troops for nonmilitary support – doesn’t carry a huge financial burden for Moscow anyway. Considering that it, too, has seen a recent wave of anti-government protests, it has been inclined to help Caracas in its time of need.


 

(click to enlarge)


In addition, Russia has an interest in increasing its presence in the Western Hemisphere, in the United States’ own backyard. It has done so primarily by getting close to Cuba – given its proximity to the U.S. – a country the Russian prime minister is scheduled to visit later this week for the first time since 2013. But maintaining strong relations with Venezuela could also help the Kremlin boost relations with Cuba. It has been difficult for Russia to gain a substantial foothold in Venezuela, partly because the U.S. would react strongly to any Russian military involvement in the country. For this reason, not to mention the expense and logistical requirements, it’s extremely unlikely that Russia would set up a military base in Venezuela, but it did send roughly 100 troops there in March, and a group of Russian military personnel arrived in Venezuela a week ago to carry out maintenance on Russian-made equipment.
Venezuela used to be one of the largest buyers of Russian weapons; it had purchased Russian tanks, Grad multiple rocket launchers, Pechora-2M missile systems, S-300 air defense systems and many others. But today, Venezuela is no longer considered a major market for Russian arms. In the past, these goods were purchased mainly using Russian loans, and Moscow can no longer rely on Caracas to pay back its debts given the state of its economy. Moscow too is short on funds and reluctant to offer loans it can’t be sure will be paid back. Thus, Russia’s defense-related activity in Venezuela today is limited mostly to fulfilling old contracts and maintaining assets that have already been delivered under previous agreements.
Russia has unquestionable long-term economic and geopolitical interests in Venezuela. But its ability to increase its presence there is limited, in part by its own economic obstacles, which include falling oil prices, reduced federal budget revenue and deteriorating living conditions for the Russian people. Still, Moscow will continue to make gestures of increased cooperation with an eye toward strengthening ties in the long term, not only because of the potential economic benefits but also because the Kremlin knows this is a popular policy position at home.
Title: WSJ: Putin outfoxes Trump in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 27, 2020, 09:54:21 PM

By Jessica Donati, Andrew Restuccia and Ian Talley
Jan. 27, 2020 10:22 am ET

The Trump administration’s bid to replace Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro hit a roadblock after a meeting with Russian officials in Rome last year—and has never recovered.

U.S. envoy Elliott Abrams arrived at the Westin Excelsior hotel hoping to persuade Russia to withdraw its support for Mr. Maduro and to recognize Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov instead demanded the U.S. back down from military threats and lift the economic sanctions intended to force Mr. Maduro’s hand.


Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in September. PHOTO: SERGEI CHIRIKOV/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

In the months that followed, the U.S. campaign spiraled into a foreign-policy debacle, thwarted by familiar adversaries, Russia and Cuba, as well as allies, Turkey and India—all countries that one way or another helped Venezuela sidestep U.S. sanctions, according to current and former U.S. officials and Venezuelan opposition activists. The European Union watched from the sidelines.


The Trump administration, confident Mr. Maduro would fall, didn’t foresee Russia leading the way for other countries to eclipse the sanctions. In turn, administration reluctance to impose sanctions on Russian enterprises and others kept Venezuela’s oil and gold flowing to buyers.

This month, in a sign of how much the opposition is floundering, Venezuela security forces blocked Mr. Guaidó from entering the National Assembly building, where he was seeking re-election as leader. Mr. Guaidó, in a blue suit, tried and failed to scale the spiked iron fence.

Russia now handles more than two-thirds of Venezuela’s crude oil, current and former administration officials said, including helping to conceal export destinations. The lifeline has helped Mr. Maduro slow the economy’s free fall, consolidate his grip on power and weaken the opposition.

Almost half of the $1.5 billion in Venezuelan crude exported to India in the nine months after the U.S. sanctions was purchased by an Indian joint venture with Russia’s oil giant, Rosneft, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by trade database Import Genius.

The United Arab Emirates has imported around $1 billion in gold from Venezuela since gold sanctions were imposed in late 2018, according to Venezuela trade records. U.S. intelligence officials say the actual amounts are far higher, based on evidence that Venezuelan gold is leaving the country masked as originating from Colombia, Uganda and elsewhere. The exports land in Turkey, the U.A.E. and other gold-trade hubs.

The Turkish Embassy in Washington denied any oil or gold trade with Venezuela that breached U.S. sanctions. “The allegations do not reflect the facts, and they are only speculative and hearsay,” a spokesman said.

The Russian Embassy in Washington declined to comment. It referred to past foreign-ministry statements criticizing the U.S. for interfering in Venezuela’s affairs. Officials from India and the U.A.E. didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Administration officials acknowledge President Trump’s frustration and say the White House continues to press for Mr. Maduro’s ouster. Mr. Trump, pointing to America’s superior economy and military, suggested in a recent interview with the Journal that the U.S. had the resources to outlast Mr. Maduro. “We have a lot of options,” the president said.

Yet with an election, impeachment and attention turned to the Middle East, Venezuela has for now moved to a back burner, an administration official said.

The stalemate allows Mr. Maduro to take a star turn as David to America’s Goliath. He makes speeches and appearances nearly every day to show he remains comfortably in charge. He chided Mr. Abrams and other U.S. officials, saying they misled Mr. Trump that a regime change would be easy.

“They’re trying to save their jobs because Trump is furious with the lies they’ve fed him on Venezuela,” Mr. Maduro said in a recent address. “They failed, and Venezuela triumphed.”

Mr. Maduro’s hold on the presidency has been costly for what was once Latin America’s most-prosperous economy. Hyperinflation, high infant mortality rates and a shortage of medical supplies contribute to the humanitarian crisis there. Food, electricity and water shortages have driven an exodus of 4.5 million people.

Mr. Abrams, the U.S. envoy, acknowledged this month that the yearlong U.S. effort to remove Mr. Maduro hit unexpected obstacles. “We underestimated the importance of the Cuban and Russian support for the regime,” he said. “The Russian role in the economy, particularly the oil economy, is larger and larger.”


Elliott Abrams, the U.S. envoy to Venezuela. PHOTO: ERIK S LESSER/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK
Mr. Guaidó, in an interview, sounded a similar note. “I think we did underestimate things,” he said. He called on countries to help block gold exports from Venezuela. “You have to try to bring pressure on those who support the regime,” he said. “Sanctions today are the only real tool we have.”

Mr. Guaidó’s approval rating had fallen by more than 20 points to 38%, according to Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis. Allegations against opposition members, including accepting bribes from Maduro cronies, have eroded confidence.

Despite the setbacks, administration officials said there are no plans to abandon Mr. Guaidó. Vice President Mike Pence last month summoned senior administration officials to a meeting in the White House’s Situation Room. U.S. officials later hosted a conference with opposition leaders to try to reinvigorate them, people familiar with the gathering said.

Mr. Guaidó’s backers see Russia as their principal obstacle and want the U.S., Europe and other allies to take a harder line on sanctions loopholes.

“Russia in my view has become the most important partner of Maduro,” said Carlos Vecchio, the Venezuela ambassador to the U.S. for Mr. Guaidó. “A multilateral approach on sanctions is critical.”

The EU hasn’t introduced sanctions or prevented Maduro officials from traveling to the eurozone to raise money and support.


Charles Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela who is now president of the nonpartisan think tank World Affairs Council of Atlanta, said the Trump administration’s predicament showed the difficulty of regime change without military force.

“And if you use military force,” he said, “there are all sorts of other problems.”

The U.S. has warned officials in Russia, Turkey, the U.A.E. and India about sanctions violations in private meetings, U.S. officials said, but hasn’t moved to blacklist companies or individuals suspected of breaking the sanctions.

Policy options have split the administration. Some officials believe sanctions on Russia’s oil firm Rosneft and other companies doing business with intermediaries could close loopholes that have allowed Mr. Maduro to survive.

Others say they could undermine U.S. interests elsewhere, including Iran. India agreed to stop importing Iranian crude as part of Washington’s pressure campaign against Tehran, but it continues to import Venezuelan oil. India pays for the deliveries in gasoline, a trade that the nation says doesn’t violate U.S. sanctions.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hasn’t ruled out negotiations with Mr. Maduro.

“We will continue to tweak our policy to get the strategy just right, but we’ve seen no evidence that Maduro is remotely interested in having free and fair elections,” Mr. Pompeo said recently about direct talks. “As far as our strategy, the tack we’ll take, I’m sure that will change over time.”

Long road
Mr. Guaidó, 36 years old, was virtually unknown in Mr. Trump’s circles before he came to Washington with a delegation in December 2018. Administration officials and opposition leaders made a plan to put Mr. Guaidó in charge, and Mr. Pence was given a central role.

Administration officials targeted Venezuela, in part to punish Cuba and win support among Cuban Americans, a potent Republican voting bloc in Florida. Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Mauricio Claver Carone, the National Security Council’s head for Latin American affairs, had roles in forging Venezuela policy.
Title: Wild Capitalism in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 07, 2020, 02:52:29 PM
I thought Guaido looked very uncomfortable at the SOTU.

I've also wondered how things have held on so long given the reports of hyperinflation, no drinking water, people rooting through garbage and the like:

February 7, 2020   View On Website
Open as PDF



    ‘Wild Capitalism’ in Venezuela
By: Allison Fedirka

In a development that would have been unheard of just a few years ago, the government in Caracas is slowly and quietly loosening its control over the Venezuelan economy. Markets are opening, regulations are being relaxed, and foreign countries are participating in its flailing state oil company. Various Venezuelan media have dubbed this unexpected period of transition “wild capitalism” and “chaotic capitalism,” but whichever name sticks, the strategy of the government is clear: adapt or die. It’s a fairly pragmatic response to the actions of the U.S., which hoped that economic pressure, widespread public protests and international support would bring an end to the Maduro administration. Instead, Caracas has simply become more creative and resourceful as it seeks to remain in power – this time by integrating its informal economy with its formal one.

Economic Pressure

For nearly 20 years, the United States has opposed the Venezuelan government on political and security grounds. But Washington grew more impatient as the Venezuelan economy tanked, thanks largely to low oil prices, high social welfare spending and economic mismanagement. The social instability that followed was a perfect opportunity for the U.S. to tackle what it saw as a security threat head on to try to facilitate regime change. It employed a strategy of heavy economic pressure for three reasons. First, U.S. military intervention in Latin America is risky, unpopular and historically counterproductive. Second, the strategy corresponds with a broader shift in national strategy away from military action as the force to bring about change. Third, the U.S. is the largest economy in the world and formerly Venezuela’s single biggest customer, so changes in trade patterns would disrupt the Venezuelan economy.

Initially, things went according to plan. Increasingly heavy sanctions aggravated the underlying weaknesses of the country’s economy. Working conditions and quality of life went from bad to worse for the vast majority of Venezuelans as hyperinflation, power outages and food shortages became commonplace. The economy has contracted for the past six years, losing roughly two-thirds of its gross domestic product from 2013 to 2019, according to the International Monetary Fund. Projections for 2020 remain bleak as GDP is expected to contract by another 10 percent.

Emigration – particularly among oil industry experts – was a problem even during the Chavez administration, but economic decay over the past two years has accelerated the trend. As of this year, an estimated 4.7 million people – out of a population of 28.4 million – have fled the country.
 
(click to enlarge)

Washington also enacted a political strategy of supporting Maduro’s enemies to capitalize on public discontent and usher in a new government, culminating with Juan Guaido, the president of the opposition-led National Assembly, declaring himself the president in 2019. For a brief moment, it seemed that pressures were aligning such that the U.S. would deliver the intended results.

Except it didn’t. Economic restrictions and lack of availability of goods expanded a robust parallel market that became essential for procurement of basic public goods. Before the U.S. levied its sanctions, economic hardship taught Venezuelans the value of acquiring and saving strong foreign currency, namely the U.S. dollar. Those who could established bank accounts in the U.S. Meanwhile, early expatriate Venezuelans, many of whom were educated and/or wealthy enough to find work abroad, provided a steady flow of U.S. dollars directly to their fellow Venezuelans. Indeed, remittances to Venezuela have risen sharply since 2016, totaling an estimated $3.7 billion-$4 billion in 2019, according to Ecoanalisis. (The increase owes to both the number of transactions and value of transactions.) According to a Consultores 21 survey, some 40 percent of the population has received remittances at some point in time and another 32 percent receive remittances on a regular basis. When government restrictions made it harder to get or use U.S. dollars, more informal or electronic means were employed to get dollars into the country. This rendered the local bolivar essentially worthless as bartering and foreign currencies have become the preferred choice for commercial transactions.
 
(click to enlarge)

Rather than fight the dollarization of the economy, the Maduro government embraced it. It relented on some currency controls and allowed a freer circulation of dollars because doing so would help to normalize the economy. After all, a recent Ecoanalitica report estimated that over half of the country’s transactions occur in U.S. dollars and that there are likely more dollars circulating in the country than bolivares. Changes in fiscal policy now allow for some purchases of foreign currency with a 25 percent value-added tax. This allows for fees and goods to be purchased and sold in foreign currency on a larger scale, making them more accessible to those with foreign currency. Businesses have also resorted to dollar-denominated transactions. Over the past few months, banks have begun to offer custodial services for holding billions of U.S. dollars and euros in cash for businesses that want to avoid ties with the government and thus evade sanctions. This may not be much help to those without access to dollars, but it has lowered inflation in the dollar-denominated economy while giving more access to more people for basic goods.

The Maduro government has eased off other areas of the economy too. It has let imports in and lifted restrictions on certain exports. Goods can now be shipped out of Cabello Port in Carabobo without the requisite red tape. Price controls have also been lifted on many goods, and companies have been allowed to invest what small funds they have.

But the most notable changes pertain to state-run oil company PDVSA. The lack of funds to repair dilapidated equipment, improve production and support business operations like refining has led PDVSA to look for support from foreign oil players, particularly Rosneft, to conduct its business. The government is also in talks with Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s ENI on how to partner or take a share in the company in exchange for capital and assistance in a scheme of virtual privatization.

Saving Face

All these measures demand a certain political flexibility to mitigate whatever risks they could pose, considering they fly in the face of Maduro’s previous policies. By allowing for reform, he has tacitly admitted that those policies have failed.

Caracas has made sure to sell the changes without losing face. In some cases it downplayed them. In others, such as dollarizing the economy, it simply passively allowed it to happen. The government has also attempted to employ traditional revolutionary rhetoric when publicly speaking of the changes, framing them as measures necessary to help the poor in Venezuela and respond to economic attacks. (The regime’s roots are buried deep in Hugo Chavez’s legacy; echoing him lends Maduro some legitimacy.)

Still, Venezuela is long past the point where it can downplay or ignore its plight. When Maduro opened the judiciary session this year, he acknowledged that the U.S. isn’t entirely to blame for everything wrong in the country – a pretty significant rhetorical departure for him – adding that more work was needed to transform the country. He received a standing ovation.

But Maduro still has to tread carefully. He shares a delicate balance of power with Diosdado Cabello, the head of the Constituent Assembly (the pro-government legislature) and current #2 in the governing PSUV party, and Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the minister of defense. (Economic liberalization would be particularly galling to a dyed-in-the-wool Chavista such as Cabello.) There are also two competing legislatures that would be involved in whatever economic change is made into law.

Which is to say that Maduro’s hold on power is still precarious. “Wild capitalism” hasn’t solved any problems – things are still very expensive, and not everyone benefits from access to foreign currency – and Maduro risks alienating his supporters by seemingly turning his back on the legacy of Chavismo. This means he is still vulnerable to losing power and opening a path for a more moderate Chavista to step in, rather than someone like Guaido who marked a complete departure from the regime. This is the opposite of what the U.S. had in mind.   




Title: Lock him up!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 26, 2020, 12:21:50 PM
U.S. Charges Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro With Drug Trafficking
Trump administration charged more than a dozen other current and former Venezuelan officials with money laundering and other offenses; $15 million reward

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro speaking at a news conference in Caracas on March 12.
PHOTO: MANAURE QUINTERO/REUTERS
By Aruna Viswanatha, José de Córdoba and Ian Talley
Updated March 26, 2020 12:50 pm ET
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U.S. authorities charged Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro with drug trafficking and offered a $15 million reward for information leading to his arrest, in a sweeping set of actions that targeted more than a dozen current and former Venezuelan officials and escalated the Trump administration’s effort to unseat the leftist regime.

Prosecutors unsealed a series of criminal cases in New York, Florida and Washington on Thursday that they described as the product of a decadelong investigation and accuse Mr. Maduro and others of coordinating with a Colombian drug-trafficking guerilla group to flood the U.S. with tons of cocaine for the past 20 years.

Attorney General William Barr described the Venezuelan regime as “plagued by criminality and corruption,” saying that it was dominated by a “system constructed and controlled to enrich those at the highest levels of the government.” He spoke at a Thursday press conference held online because of the coronavirus pandemic.

While Mr. Maduro remains in control of Venezuela, the U.S. and nearly 60 countries last year recognized the then-president of the country’s national assembly, Juan Guaidó, as the country’s legitimate president.

The Venezuelan government didn’t have an immediate reaction to the indictments. In the past, Venezuela has rejected any U.S. accusations of drug trafficking, corruption or support for terrorist groups as part of a U.S. plot to destabilize the Maduro government.

The indictment comes at a time when Venezuela and the Maduro government are reeling from the global collapse of oil prices and U.S. economic sanctions that have shriveled the country’s crucial oil shipments.

The country, already five years into a depression that last year saw economic growth contract by 35%, also faces the threat of the global coronavirus pandemic amid a collapsed health-care system and a population suffering from widespread malnourishment.

In another case, filed in federal court in Miami, prosecutors accused the sitting chief justice of Venezuela’s Supreme Court, Maikel José Moreno Pérez, with taking millions of dollars in bribes related to cases he was overseeing and spending the funds on luxury goods and real estate in southern Florida.

The case against Mr. Maduro is the first time that the U.S. has charged a sitting head of state since Florida prosecutors indicted Panamanian strongman General Manuel Noriega in 1988 on drug trafficking and money-laundering charges. The U.S. invaded Panama the following year.

Mr. Noriega was tried in Miami and convicted of drug trafficking and money laundering. He served a long prison sentence in the U.S. before being extradited to Panama, where he died in 2017.

Mr. Maduro is unlikely to ever be in U.S. custody and face the charges inside a U.S. courtroom, but the Justice Department uses such “name and shame” cases to publicize allegations of wrongdoing that prosecutors believe they can prove to the standard of criminal cases—beyond a reasonable doubt.

U.S. officials said Thursday they remained optimistic that they would be able to eventually prosecute some of the officials, who could face arrest if they travel overseas.
Title: GPF: Russia anally raped in Venezuela oil play
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 30, 2020, 08:33:51 PM


•   On March 28, Russian state oil company Rosneft announced the end of its operations in Venezuela. The company said it will receive a liquidation payment worth 9.6 percent of its capital.
Title: WSJ: Eliot Abrams: A New Path to Venezuelan Democracy
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2020, 04:31:16 AM
A New Path to Venezuelan Democracy
The U.S. State Department proposes Maduro and Guaidó both step aside and make way for free elections.
By Elliott Abrams
March 31, 2020 5:00 am ET

As the coronavirus spreads around the world, it’s easy to forget the Venezuelan people’s suffering at the hands of Nicolás Maduro’s regime. The Trump administration hasn’t. Today we are announcing a Democratic Transition Framework to help Venezuelans escape from the national crisis that falling oil prices and the coronavirus have now deepened.

We present this framework as a path for Venezuela to emerge from years of repression and political conflict. It proposes that both Mr. Maduro, the former president who has clung to power, and Juan Guaidó, the interim president, step aside so that the elected members of the National Assembly from both sides can create a Council of State to serve as the transitional government, which would hold free and fair presidential elections. In last year’s negotiations, the team representing Mr. Guaidó and the National Assembly proposed this path forward toward the restoration of democracy.

Democracy isn’t only about elections. A new, balanced and independent National Electoral Council is also critical, and an independent Supreme Court must replace the current one, which is but an arm of the Maduro regime. A vibrant democracy also demands a free and independent media with an end to the regime’s pervasive censorship.

The U.S. doesn’t support any particular political party in Venezuela. We support a return to democracy and believe that every party—including the regime’s party, the PSUV—should be able to compete on a level playing field in free and fair elections. This means an end to the unjust prosecutions that have left dozens of members of Parliament in exile, four in prison, and many more barred from running for office—including Mr. Guaidó, who would continue as president of the National Assembly until new parliamentary and presidential elections. The U.S. will recognize the results of a free and fair election, no matter which party wins; what we oppose is the abuse of state power that enables one party to rule indefinitely.

For the Maduro regime, the deep cuts in income due to falling oil prices compound the crisis of a medical system that it pushed into slow collapse over two decades. U.S. pressure hasn’t prevented food or medicine from reaching Venezuelans. The purpose of sanctions is to deprive the regime of the income it uses for repression—or steals through vast corruption—and force the regime to agree to presidential elections. Mr. Maduro has never negotiated in good faith about that central issue. National Assembly elections alone do not constitute a political solution.

The military will play an essential role in bringing about peaceful change and shaping Venezuela’s future. Venezuelan soldiers, along with police officers, are suffering as civilians are; they can barely afford to feed their families and can’t afford medical care or medications. Venezuela faces a great security challenge from drug traffickers, terrorist groups and criminal gangs, and it needs security forces that are better paid, trained and equipped to secure the nation’s borders and maintain peace. The military and police must abandon the role the Maduro regime has forged for them—carrying out the repression of the Venezuelan people. The military must also join in expelling the Cuban intelligence agents who spy on them and all citizens and serve as the regime’s true shield. The armed forces’ support of the Democratic Transition Framework would be a key step in this direction.

Free and fair presidential elections are the path out of Venezuela’s crisis. Because Mr. Maduro cannot be trusted to organize them, establishing the Council of State is an essential step. We are prepared to work with all Venezuelans and with other nations and lift sanctions when the necessary conditions are met. The Democratic Transition Framework paves the best path to a restoration of democracy through fair participation of all parties, and an end to the brutality, repression and political turmoil that have marked Venezuela’s recent past.

Until that objective is achieved, our pressure will strengthen. We look forward to the day when elections have been held, a new democratic government is in place, and sanctions can be lifted. We look forward to restoring once-close Venezuela-U.S. relations, to helping Venezuelan migrants and refugees displaced by the crisis return to their beloved country, and to seeing Venezuela’s children able to share again in their country’s natural bounty.

Mr. Abrams is special representative for Venezuela at the U.S. State Department.

Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 01, 2020, 11:14:32 AM
In Venezuela, the U.S. Offers Sanctions Relief for a Power-Sharing Deal
4 MINS READ
Apr 1, 2020 | 17:46 GMT
HIGHLIGHTS
In a notable shift from its hardline anti-Maduro rhetoric, Washington has called on both sides of Venezuela's political battle to step aside for a new transitional government and free elections....

The Big Picture

The U.S. State Department has called on both sides of Venezuela’s ongoing political battle to stand down and make way for a new transitional government and democratic elections, marking a notable shift from Washington’s more hardline, pro-opposition rhetoric. But the United States' primary goal of undermining elite support for President Nicolas Maduro nonetheless remains in place.

See Venezuela's Unraveling

What Happened

To break Venezuela’s ongoing political stalemate, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a plan on March 31 that outlines a path to a power-sharing framework and free elections in exchange for the potential removal of U.S. sanctions. Dubbed the "Democratic Transition Framework," the proposal specifically calls for both President Nicolas Maduro and U.S.-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido to step aside for the formation of a new “inclusive transitional government acceptable to the major factions” without either leader. Elected by the country’s opposition-controlled National Assembly, this transitional government would remain in power until it oversees free elections, ideally held in six to 12 months.

To put the plan into motion, the United States has offered the quick removal of sanctions on individuals who resign from their posts within the Maduro regime. The removal of broader U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and state-owned energy company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), however, are contingent on Maduro himself leaving office, as well as the withdrawal of all Cuban and Russian forces currently deployed in the country. In a separate statement, the U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela, Elliot Abrams, notably added that the proposal does not have a mechanism to reject the U.S. Department of Justice’s recently announced indictment of Maduro and other Venezuelan officials over so-called "narco-terrorism" charges.

Why It Matters

The fact that the new proposal is less overtly Guido-centeric marks a notable shift in tone for the United States, and could indicate that Washington has concluded that its former hardline rhetoric against the Maduro regime has failed to quickly oust the leader from office as intended. But the core of the White House’s strategy in Venezuela is still the same — that is, driving a wedge between Maduro and his loyalists in both the United Socialist Party and the military so that they eventually turn on the leader in some fashion. The U.S.-led push to oust Maduro was always going to inherently require a transitional government; this plan just formally plots the course to reach that end.

However, Washington’s move to indict a number of Maduro’s allies less than a week ago — and that the newly proposed transition plan does not include dropping those charges — could backfire on this goal by hardening solidarity among the regime’s top indicted officials who now all find themselves in the same boat. It will thus be critical to monitor whether non-indicted officials begin to come out against Maduro in response to the new U.S. plan, and if those who do have enough political sway to encourage other officials to follow suit.

While the proposed power-sharing deal marks a notable shift in tone, Washington's primary goal of undermining elite support for President Nicolas Maduro nonetheless remains the same.

There’s also a chance Maduro would still be eligible to run in the new elections: While Pompeo stressed Maduro would "never again" rule Venezuela in his statement, Abrams also noted that he could "theoretically run." Indeed, there is significant concern among Venezuela hawks in the United States that the new proposal could effectively pull the rug out from Guaido’s feet, and it remains unclear whether there's a different opposition figure who could replace him to challenge Maduro.

What’s Next

The U.S. offer for a transition will entice some non-indicted officials to turn against Maduro, but those pathways have always been there. So far this year, Maduro’s security forces also have continued to successfully block attempts by Guaido’s opposition movement to access the National Assembly building. Stratfor thus maintains its assessment that Maduro’s government will remain in power through the end of 2020, despite the mounting financial strain brought on by U.S. sanctions, the collapse in oil production and now coronavirus-related drops in global oil prices and demand. The more likely timetable for those fissures to metastasize into pushing out Maduro is 2021 or 2022, with the long-term health of Venezuela’s oil industry and oil prices still the most important force that could eventually result in a government transition.
Title: Cruise ship sinks Venezuelan Navy patrol boat
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 02, 2020, 04:44:31 PM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32853/this-venezuelan-patrol-ship-sunk-itself-after-ramming-a-cruise-liner-with-an-reinforced-hull?xid=fbshare

https://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-law-of-gross-tonnage-applies.html?spref=fb
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 04, 2020, 03:52:25 PM
   
    Rosneft Leaves Venezuela
By: GPF Staff
 
(click to enlarge)
Russian oil company Rosneft announced last week that it would cease all its operations in Venezuela. The decision was not a surprise; the U.S. had imposed sanctions against two Rosneft subsidiaries – TNK Trading International and Rosneft Trading – for continuing to buy oil from Venezuela despite sanctions against such purchases. The move could, however, negatively affect the company's image as well as its performance. Moscow remains heavily dependent on oil sales, and the recent fluctuations in oil prices have hit the country's finances hard.

But Russia isn't leaving Venezuela completely. Rosneft's Venezuelan assets have been sold to a Russian state-owned company, which will acquire shares in the Petromonagas, Petroperija, Boqueron, Petromiranda and Petrovictoria oil fields as well as Rosneft's trading operations. Venezuela is one of Russia's few remaining partners in Latin America, so Moscow was prepared to buy up Rosneft's assets to help support the Maduro regime. Moscow also owns a 49.9 percent stake in U.S.-based Citgo, giving it some leverage in future talks with Washington.   



Title: Ex Green Beret led failed attempt to oust Maduro
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 03, 2020, 04:48:38 PM
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/01/ex-green-beret-led-failed-attempt-to-oust-venezuelas-maduro/
Title: Re: Ex Green Beret led failed attempt to oust Maduro
Post by: DougMacG on May 04, 2020, 06:39:48 AM
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/01/ex-green-beret-led-failed-attempt-to-oust-venezuelas-maduro/

Too bad to bungle this.  Failed overthrow attempts probably make Maduro stronger.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 04, 2020, 09:33:38 AM
I'm not getting how he is still in power.  Weren't we told many months ago that inflation was over 1,000,000%?
Title: Career info on the former Green Berets involved in the debacle
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 06, 2020, 07:36:08 PM
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/heres-the-career-info-for-the-former-green-berets-involved-in-venezuela-raid-debacle/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Army%20DNR%205.6.20&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Army%20-%20Daily%20News%20Roundup
Title: Re: Career info on the former Green Berets involved in the debacle
Post by: DougMacG on May 07, 2020, 06:31:34 AM
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/06/heres-the-career-info-for-the-former-green-berets-involved-in-venezuela-raid-debacle/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Army%20DNR%205.6.20&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Army%20-%20Daily%20News%20Roundup

This is unbelievably sad and tragic.  It answers one of my biggest questions in life.  In the Soviet Union, in Saddam's Iraq, in Communist China, in Cuba, in North Korea, in Venezuela, why don't the people rise up and throw out the thugs?  And then 60 well armed, well trained people do that and fail.  Now you are either dead or captured for trying and have made the next attempt even less possible to succeed.

It reminds me of: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dujail_Massacre
Title: More on the attempted coup
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 07, 2020, 07:37:06 AM
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33322/breaking-down-the-absolutely-batshit-botched-coup-attempt-against-venezuelas-maduro
Title: More on the attempted coup 2.0
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2020, 02:33:45 PM
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/05/08/ex-green-beret-pitched-venezuela-plot-to-colorado-investors-last-year-claiming-links-to-trump-insider-and-dc-consultants/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Army%20Times%205.8.20&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Army%20-%20Daily%20News%20Roundup
Title: Cuban spies foil efforts to overthrow Maduro
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2020, 08:39:29 AM
How Cuba’s Spies Keep Winning
They’ve infiltrated another attempt to unseat Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
May 10, 2020 3:40 pm ET

The failed landing on a rugged stretch of Venezuelan coastline last week by a band of mercenaries hoping to unseat Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is another tragedy for the beleaguered nation.

The predawn mission was meant to capitalize on the element of surprise. But the irregular soldiers were immediately confronted by Venezuelan troops because their operation had been thoroughly penetrated by Cuban-backed Venezuelan intelligence. Some were killed in the fighting and more may have been executed. Among the captured are two Americans.

The debacle is demoralizing for an enslaved nation suffering dire privation and brutal repression. It is also an opportunity to reflect on Cuba’s asymmetric-warfare capabilities and the sophistication of its intelligence apparatus, which over more than a half-century has run circles around the U.S. Beyond the killing, the fiasco will deepen suspicion and distrust among the members of the opposition—particularly of “friends” who claim to have broken with the dictatorship.

The U.S. government has said it had no “direct involvement” in the seaborne operation. Jordan Goudreau, a former Green Beret who was the ring leader of the plot, did receive some interest in his services from advisers to U.S.-backed interim Venezuelan President Juan Guaidó. But Mr. Guaidó’s communications team has put out a statement insisting that the interim president never agreed to launching the operation.

Mr. Goudreau, who heads the U.S.-based security firm Silvercorp, apparently planned to provoke a military uprising, detain Mr. Maduro, and put him on a plane to the U.S.

There is near universal agreement that it was a reckless endeavor. Yet it is only the latest in a string of desperate attempts to try to bring down the dictatorship. And while the methods have varied, the common denominator in all the quashed uprisings has been how effectively Cuban-led intelligence has disrupted the plans. In some cases the plots may even have originated with state-security agents, who recruited eager patriots and mercenaries and set them up to be killed. This also reinforces a sense of futility among would-be rebels.

Whether it’s inside the military or among the ranks of the opposition, many Venezuelans now conclude that Cuban moles are everywhere and it’s too risky to put confidence in anyone. This is key to Havana’s control strategy in Venezuela. It is also standard practice on the island.

The struggle to liberate Venezuela is a proxy war between the U.S. and Cuba, which is backed by its allies Russia, Iran and China. The conflict drags on because Cuba has the edge where it matters.

When it comes to traditional military capabilities, the U.S. soars above its adversaries. But Havana dominates in deception, human intelligence and propaganda. It’s been that way from the early days of the Cuban dictatorship. “The Cubans were underestimated for more than a quarter of a century,” former CIA Cuba analyst Brian Latell wrote in his 2012 book, “Castro’s Secrets.” The U.S. thought it was dealing with “bush-league amateurs” until Florentino Aspillaga Lombard, a highly decorated Cuban agent, defected in 1987. That’s when the U.S. began to understand that Castro’s Cuba had “developed a foreign intelligence service that quickly rose into the ranks of the half dozen best in the world.” Moreover, “in some covert specialties, particularly in running double agents and counterintelligence,” over decades, Mr. Latell wrote, “Cuba’s achievements have been unparalleled.”

It’s a mistake to think this is only about people like high-ranking Pentagon intelligence analyst Ana Belén Montes, who was exposed as a Cuban spy in 2001 after some 16 years working for the enemy. Cuba has myriad ways of spreading disinformation, combating critics, and widening its influence. Return access to the island for journalists and academics, for example, is denied when there is unfavorable coverage, which is presumably why yours truly cannot get a visa.

Blackmail is another method of manipulation. I have twice interviewed a Cuban defector who told me it was his job in Cuba to retrieve videocassettes from hidden cameras in hotel rooms and official residences where visiting dignitaries were staying. The goal was to capture on film compromising behavior that could be used to extort political favors or, for example, force a resignation. With heavy political and diplomatic traffic to the island from Europe and Washington, it’s a safe bet that at least a few have been compromised in this way.

The Guaidó team now says it balked at the Goudreau plan in part because it did not trust former Venezuelan General Cliver Alcalá, whose brother is Mr. Maduro’s ambassador to Tehran but who claimed to have switched sides. Mr. Alcalá was taken into custody in the U.S. on drug-trafficking charges in March. But that he got close to the Guaidó team in the first place is another credit to Cuba’s intel network—most likely in this case with a lot of help from Iran.

Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Title: GPF: Why Maduro isn't worse off than he is
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 19, 2020, 09:19:38 AM


May 19, 2020   View On Website
Open as PDF



    Why Venezuela's Maduro Isn’t Worse Off Than He Is
By: Allison Fedirka

The past few months have been a nightmare for economies that rely on oil. After the coronavirus pandemic sent prices plummeting, finance ministries had to triage planned revenue, major social and infrastructure projects were put on hold or aborted altogether, and the public started to lose its temper. All available evidence would suggest that oil-dependent Venezuela is, once again, on the brink of collapse. Yet President Nicolas Maduro finds himself in a comparatively stronger position now than when oil prices collapsed in early March. Since then, he has managed to navigate through extensive U.S. actions meant to cripple the Venezuelan economy and has weathered three key external events — the pandemic, the oil crash and a farcical coup attempt involving two Americans — maintaining his power however precariously.

Venezuela is strategically important to the U.S., at least within the parameters of hemispheric security and control of the Caribbean Sea, and it’s no secret that the Trump administration would like to see Maduro fall. Hence Washington’s general low-cost, low-effort policy of slowly tightening an economic vise around the country, which keeps its interests in play while waiting for the Maduro government to self-destruct or for the opposition to take over. The fall of the price of oil, however, gave Washington an opportunity to pitch new transition talks to Maduro and his opponents. On March 31, the U.S. State Department issued its proposed Democratic Transition Framework for Venezuela, in which it offered to begin lifting parts of the sanctions if members of Maduro’s United Socialist Party of Venezuela formed an interim government without Maduro to transition to new elections. Unsurprisingly, Maduro publicly rejected the plan.

He could afford to. Low oil prices didn’t damage the Venezuelan economy as badly as expected. Mostly that’s because the economy, particularly its hydrocarbon sector, was already in ruins. Food shortages have been rampant since at least 2012, the currency been in a state of hyperinflation since 2016, power shortages occur regularly and many citizens depend on the black market for survival. U.S. sanctions targeting high-level politicians and key business activities made things only worse. Oil production has been in decline since 2016 and has fallen dramatically since 2018. Most of the oil Venezuela does produce is sold at a discount and used to pay off debts or for domestic consumption. These problems were such that the drop in oil prices hurt the economy but not as badly as the drop hurt healthier economies.
 
(click to enlarge)

When it became clear the transition proposal was dead on arrival, the Trump administration called on Chevron, the only U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela, to leave or give up its shares in its operations. It was meant to be retaliatory but in fact did little to hurt Maduro. Chevron produced only 34,000 barrels per day in 2019 — a drop in the bucket for a country that produces under 1 million bpd (and falling) in a bad year — and so it made sense for it to halt operations, which it did. However, Chevron kept its shares in joint ventures with state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, meaning the company will keep its foot in the door in Venezuela, which has been the company’s only purpose in the country for the past couple of years. The truth is that the Chevron decision did little to undercut Maduro or hurt the Venezuelan oil sector writ large.
 
(click to enlarge)

The biggest danger to Venezuela is the price of domestic duel, which skyrocketed around the same time prices fell as supplies ran low. The shortages are due primarily to poor refining capacity. At the beginning of 2015, Venezuela refined 915,000 bpd of crude. By the start of 2020, it was refining just 135,000 bpd. Now, refining has never been Venezuela’s strong suit; it generally relied on U.S. facilities. But low gasoline prices were a fixture of Venezuela for decades, and raising the price is politically dangerous.

Thus Venezuela turned to Iran, a country with lots of experience and little to lose from angering the United States. In exchange for about $900 million worth of gold, Iran sent input chemicals for refining, pledged help to repair refineries and dispatched five tankers to delivery emergency fuel to Venezuela. That is a hefty sum of money for a country with few reserves, but solving the fuel crisis is necessary for Maduro to remain in power.

There are two other factors that explain why Maduro is relatively safe behind his heightened security. The first and most obvious is that the coronavirus pandemic discouraged people from protesting in public, and gave the military an excuse to patrol the streets and take control of the distribution of health equipment and food. The second was the May 3 “coup attempt,” if you can call it that. Dozens of people — including two Americans — launched an amphibious assault, only to be immediately snuffed out by authorities. The incursion was never a real threat to Maduro’s power, but since the alleged orchestrator was an American mercenary with a company based in Florida, Maduro had more than enough reason to publicly villainize the U.S., increase security even more and portray the government from a position of strength. Most important, it gave Caracas two U.S. prisoners who can be used in future negotiations.

The U.S. is in no rush to re-engage Venezuela. It’s written off Juan Guaido, the so-called other president of Venezuela who failed to serve his purpose of ushering in a new government. Washington is content to wait until it can capitalize on its reconstruction once there is a new government in place. Reconstruction comes down to who has the most money to pour into Venezuela, and to no surprise the U.S. was for the past few months the most well-suited to do so. Now, with low oil prices, a global recession and record-level unemployment in the U.S., Washington has no will and limited ability to fund Venezuela's reconstruction.

And so Maduro occupies his post relatively uncontested for now. The economy is still a mess, but time seems again to be on his side.   


Title: Venezuela dollarization
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 18, 2020, 06:35:35 PM
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/finally-maduro-is-listening/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NR%20Daily%20Monday%20through%20Friday%202020-11-18&utm_term=NRDaily-Smart
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on November 24, 2020, 05:09:47 AM
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/11/23/starving-venezuelan-prisoners-kill-eat-prison-directors-rottweiler/

https://www.infobae.com/america/venezuela/2020/11/22/presos-venezolanos-mataron-a-un-perro-para-comerselo-los-familiares-denuncian-que-los-reos-se-estan-muriendo-de-hambre/

Should go in the Biden admin thread?
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2020, 08:44:01 AM
No, this is the right thread.
Title: Hyperinflation Pushes Venezuela to Print 1,000,000-Bolivar Bills
Post by: DougMacG on March 08, 2021, 07:38:30 AM
This one should go in the (US) Monetary Policy thread since we seem bound and determined to follow them.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/hyperinflation-pushes-venezuela-to-print-1000000-bolivar-bills/ar-BB1ei8Dj

Hyperinflation Pushes Venezuela to Print 1,000,000-Bolivar Bills

(Bloomberg) -- Venezuela said it will introduce new large-denomination bolivar notes as hyperinflation renders most bills worthless, forcing citizens to turn to the U.S. dollar for everyday transactions.
Title: China & Russia collaborating in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 19, 2021, 07:56:48 AM
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us-military-official-china-and-russia-may-be-collaborating-south-of-us-border_3738033.html?utm_source=morningbrief&utm_medium=email&email=craftydog@earthlink.net&utm_campaign=mb-2021-03-19
Title: GPF: Russia in Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 22, 2021, 02:47:55 PM
March 22, 2021
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When Influence Reaches a Tipping Point
Russia in Venezuela is a great example of what we mean when we talk about “influence.”
By: Allison Fedirka

“Influence” and “presence” are among the most misused and overused words, even by us, in geopolitical analysis. We all know what they mean, and yet they don’t mean much if they aren’t properly explained. Influence can mean mutually beneficial business interests between two countries, or it could mean the infiltration of one country’s intelligence operatives by the intelligence agencies of another. Breadth and depth of “influence” matter, as does the strategic value of the area or industry influenced. Dominating a country’s military supply chain is not the same as dominating the culinary scene.

It’s therefore critical to understand when “presence” and “influence” reach a point where they spur a country to action. Russian influence in Venezuela is a case in point, especially because it will play a role in how the United States crafts its security relations with Colombia.

Venezuela has maintained strong ties with Russia for decades. Over the past few years, though, Russia has changed the way it engages with Venezuela, de-emphasizing its economic relationship (joint ventures and other energy-related projects) and prioritizing, albeit subtly, its security relationship. Growing U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, depressed oil prices, mounting domestic instability and financial difficulties for the Russian government meant Russia had to take a more pragmatic approach to its business ventures. (Hence, the departure of Rosneft in 2019.) Rather than abandon Venezuela’s energy sector, Russia shifted its engagement style. Russia maintained control of its Venezuelan assets by creating Roszarubezhneft, a parent company that took control over the security company Chop RN-Okhrana-Ryazan, which holds Russian energy assets in Venezuela through its 80 percent share in the National Petroleum Consortium. Russia also leveraged its energy expertise to install its people and its business practices in the highest levels of PDVSA management, giving Moscow the ability to shape the decisions and strategy of the Venezuelan state-owned oil company. This has helped Russia facilitate the sale of Venezuelan crude despite U.S. sanctions.

Changes are underway on the military front too. In the late 2000s and early 2010s, Russia was heavily engaged in financing Venezuela’s purchase and modernization of military hardware, including the iconic S-300 air defense systems and Su-30 fighter jets. Financial constraints facing both countries and deteriorating stability within Venezuela put an end to major hardware modernization initiatives. Russia could no longer ensure the safety of its equipment under the Maduro regime or, worse yet, in the event that pro-U.S. groups succeeded in replacing the regime.

Now Russia takes a more subtle, though still important, approach with Venezuela and military cooperation. Over the past three years, the Russian military has sent several strategic military planes to Venezuela for visits, including the nuclear-capable Tu-160 Blackjack bombers, AN-124 cargo plane and Il-62 passenger plane. More recently, at the end of 2020, it was reported that a Tu-154, which is registered to the FSB intelligence service, entered Venezuelan airspace. Its whereabouts are unconfirmed. More, some 100 Russian troops arrived in Venezuela back in 2019 – a size suitable for advisory activities rather than kinetic fighting. This year, there have been reports that Russia has provided anti-terrorist and insurgent training for the Venezuelan armed forces. And last October, President Nicolas Maduro announced the formation of a science and technology military council that included Cuban, Russian, Iranian and Chinese advisers.

Russian engagement with Venezuela is all the more relevant in light of the conditions and crises faced by the Maduro government. Maduro lacks the charisma and natural leadership demonstrated by his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez. Maduro has instead constructed – sometimes deliberately, sometimes inadvertently – a governance structure that disseminates power to different groups, cohered by mutual dependence, to maintain power. This has created conditions in which Russian contributions and activities play critical roles in keeping Maduro in power. Russia’s work in the energy sector gives it control over one of the government’s most valuable assets, even if it is in disarray. Its assistance in exports also helps funnel in U.S. dollars to the Venezuelan government despite U.S. sanctions. Russia’s military training will equip Venezuela’s domestic forces with the skills needed to help better prevent and quell mounting internal unrest over deteriorating living conditions and general discontent with the government. With the military flights, Russia has demonstrated that it can move military personnel and equipment in and out of Venezuela with ease. (There have been suggestions that this cooperation could include an intelligence component as well.)

In short, the deterioration inside Venezuela allowed Russia to assume a more prominent role in keeping Venezuela’s economy afloat, its military prepared, and its intelligence informed. It controls the strategic assets and markets on which the government depends. Moscow doesn’t outright pull Venezuela’s strings, but it clearly has enough influence to affect outside actors.

Enter Colombia and the United States. Like many of its neighbors, Colombia started to modernize its military some time ago. The country’s defense industry has made some advances toward developing indigenous equipment like unmanned aerial vehicles, air-defense systems, patrol boats and amphibious ships. However, domestic production remains inadequate for its needs, so Bogota relies heavily on foreign imports. Its military and security forces face capability gaps due to outdated legacy systems and insufficient amounts of strategic equipment. Given the long-standing security relationship between the U.S. and Colombia, and the fact that the U.S. has been a major weapons supplier to Colombia in the past, a substantial U.S. role in Colombia’s modernization effort would be a natural fit.

The decision to purchase military systems and fleets comes with a host of domestic and international considerations. Given Russia’s influence in Venezuela, the reaction to potential U.S. arms sales needs to be factored in to the decision-making calculus since it could provoke a retaliatory response. In the case of Colombia, most of its security efforts focus on counterinsurgency and counter-narcotics operations. More recently, containment of any spillover effect from Venezuela’s instability has also been included in defense strategies. To do this effectively, Colombia must be able to reach and control remote areas of its porous borders, particularly with Venezuela, where these illicit groups and activities occur. Currently, the Colombian government plans to acquire a new fleet of fighter jets to support these efforts, and the U.S. is a frontrunner in the bidding. Follow-on deals for improved radar systems and air-defense are also likely in the future.

Colombia's Air Command Bases
(click to enlarge)

The acquisition of this equipment and capability by Colombia will likely aggravate Russia. Any reconnaissance or radar equipment risks making its low-profile military activities more visible. A new fighter jet fleet, depending on the defense contractor, could also make Russia and Venezuela feel more threatened. For example, Moscow would view the selection of F-16 Block 70 jets as a greater threat than the Gripen NG, which it believes to be an inferior aircraft to its Su-30s. Any perception that the U.S. is moving in to secure a stronger military posture with the Colombians – which the sale of F-16’s would do – could be grounds for a Russian reaction. The concern for the U.S. on this front is what that potential reaction would look like. Washington does not want to risk sparking a military spending spree with Russia in Latin America; nor does it want to see Moscow reinforce or send new security deployments to counter U.S. interests in sensitive areas overseas.

The U.S. has already subtly demonstrated its need to factor the Russian presence into its response to its Venezuela strategy. U.S. security officials have repeatedly warned this year that Russia and Iran are destabilizing Latin America and mentioned Colombia by name. They also noted actors based in Venezuela and Cuba as having a secondary role (Russia was cited among the primary culprits) in meddling with U.S. 2020 elections. These are low-level commentaries that signal a clear message that Russia’s place in Venezuela is noticed and seen as increasingly problematic. Russian activity in Venezuela is strong and in strategic areas such that it can affect decisions made not only by the Venezuelan government but also outside players like the U.S. and Colombia. Russian presence in Venezuela is making the U.S. and Colombia think more cautiously about how they will pursue military and defense ties in the future.
Title: GPF: Russia in Venezuela 2.0
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2021, 05:23:11 PM
   
By: Geopolitical Futures


Russia is back in Venezuela. Russia and Venezuela signed 12 cooperation agreements covering things like finance, energy, the military and medicines. The signings took place Wednesday during a visit by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov to Caracas to meet with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

Title: GPF: Venezuela-Colombia
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 07, 2021, 07:26:51 AM
April 7, 2021
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Venezuela Passes a Security Test, for Now
Caracas can’t allow fighting among Colombian guerrilla groups to rage on inside its borders.
By: Allison Fedirka

Venezuelan soldiers started flooding into Apure, a state along the border with Colombia, just over two weeks ago. The deployments aimed to tamp down fighting among guerrilla groups from Colombia and regain control. The operations have so far destroyed at least nine guerrilla camps and resulted in dozens of detentions and dozens of deaths, including eight dead Venezuelan soldiers. Though the fighting seems to have quieted down for the moment, the strong military presence is likely to continue in the short term. The Venezuelan government will allow – even encourage – some degree of illicit activity by Colombian guerrilla groups on its territory. The spoils from such activities help to keep its military in line. But at a time when its authority is already being seriously questioned, Caracas can’t allow fighting among the guerrilla groups to rage on inside its borders.

Fractured Alliance

What’s unique about this wave of border violence is that the Venezuelan authorities are responding at all. Normally, the government turns a blind eye to activities by former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) or National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrillas in hard-to-govern parts of the country like Apure. In fact, over the past few decades the Venezuelan government has preferred to work with guerrilla and criminal groups in the border area to advance common interests. Ideologically, the FARC had much in common with the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and his Bolivarian Revolution. Both championed revolutionary socialism, and both were hostile to the Colombian government. The Venezuelan government sheltered the FARC from Colombian security forces, and in return it gained leverage over the Colombian government. Over time their shared political interests grew to include economic and security interests as well.

But what’s left of the FARC is not the same as the FARC of the early years. After more than 50 years of fighting and multiple failed peace talks, the Colombian government and the FARC finally signed a peace deal in 2016. Many FARC fighters, however, refused to put down their weapons, preferring to continue participating in the lucrative drug trade, fuel smuggling and illegal mining.

The Road to a FARC-Colombia Peace Agreement
(click to enlarge)

The remnants of the group tried to reconstitute it in 2017. By mid-2019, two distinct factions were jostling for position along the Venezuelan border. One is called Second Marquetalia (sometimes referred to as New Marquetalia) and is led by Jesus Santrich and Ivan Marquez, a former member of the FARC Secretariat and the group’s second-in-command at the time of its demobilization. Second Marquetalia consists of multiple “fronts” and runs operations primarily in Colombia’s Caribbean region as well as northern Antioquia and parts of the Venezuelan border. The other faction, sometimes called the 1st Front Dissidence, also consists of multiple fronts and is led by Ivan Mordisco and Gentil Duarte and operates primarily in eastern Colombia.

The leaders of both groups aspire to unite the factions, but neither side is willing to submit to the other. Yet they did manage to come to an understanding for a while, through an agreement that also involved the ELN, a long-standing player along the border, and the Venezuelan government. Eventually, however, their accord broke down because of disputes over the distribution of income and territory. Based on the recent Venezuelan operations, it appears Marquez and Santrich’s Second Marquetalia has come out on top, due in large part to its ability to keep the ELN and the Venezuelan government on its side.

Necessary Evil

The Maduro government has been working for months to stop or contain the escalation of fighting between the ex-FARC factions. In September 2020, Venezuelan forces attacked three camps belonging to the 10th front – part of the Mordisco-Duarte faction – in three sectors of Paez municipality in Apure state. At the end of January – a day after reported skirmishes between the two factions – the armed forces launched another operation, code named Jiwi 2021, against dissident FARC camps in Venezuela. Less than a week later, on Feb. 5, participants in Jiwi 2021 clashed with FARC elements near Puerto Ayacucho in Amazonas state. A third operation occurred Feb. 11 in the Pedro Camejo municipality of Apure state, during which eight guerrilla camps were destroyed as well as eight runways used by drug traffickers. In all of this fighting, including the most recent bout beginning March 21, the Venezuelan government has carefully chosen its words in describing its targets. Reports indicate that the target group is the 10th front and affiliated members – all part of the Mordisco-Duarte faction. Presumably, Caracas wants a return to the original framework led by Marquez and Santrich, thus preserving the relationship among the Venezuelan forces, the ELN and Second Marquetalia.

The government’s strong response reveals the scale of the threat that the infighting poses to the Maduro regime. The Chavez regime laid the foundation for strong ties between the government, the security forces and Colombian guerrillas like the FARC and ELN. Over the years, these parties have engaged in mutually beneficial black market activities. These activities in turn have become critical to the Maduro regime, which takes its share of the revenues and stays in the military’s good graces by letting it do the same. The nexus between these groups would be difficult to map out precisely, but there was enough evidence for the U.S. Justice Department in March 2020 to indict Maduro, several current and former Venezuelan officials, and members of the FARC’s leadership on narco-terrorism charges.

Besides the need to keep the money flowing, Caracas must use this moment to prove it can control its territory. The recent offensive comes as the public is seriously questioning, if not outright rejecting, the legitimacy of the regime. The economic situation in the country is precarious, and there have been multiple attempts – by regime critics and the U.S. – to sow divisions within the military’s ranks. The territory in question is remote and difficult to secure, but if the government fails to rein in the problematic FARC faction and show it can maintain control, it would severely damage the credibility of the government and the military. (Arguably, the fact that the government and military depend on relationships with foreign guerrillas and criminal gangs in the first place is evidence enough of a lack of government control, but an acceptance of criminal activity is not quite the same as anarchy.)


(click to enlarge)

To that end, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez announced on April 5 the creation of special defense operation zones in three municipalities of Apure state. The government also sent in the Special Action Force of the Bolivarian National Police (FAES), which human rights groups consider to be a death squad. The mission of the FAES is unknown, but it likely includes intelligence collection, supporting the other forces, serving as the eyes and ears of Miraflores Palace, and of course brutal suppression. The heavy-handed response is proportionate to the risk the Maduro regime seeks to eliminate.

The Bigger Picture

All this instability serves the interest of the U.S. and Colombian governments. Indeed, on several occasions the Maduro government has claimed without evidence that Washington and Bogota are behind the fighting. However, U.S. efforts to usher in regime change have flopped. Washington failed to inspire civil-military action in early 2019, when opposition figure Juan Guaido claimed the title of interim president, and sanctions have weakened the regime but have not brought it down. Neither the U.S. nor Colombia has the political or economic capital to support a military offensive to depose Maduro, nor is it necessarily in their interest for the country to slide into civil war, or descend far enough into chaos that the U.S. felt a need to get involved militarily. The potential for the struggle within the remnants of the FARC to weaken the regime by eroding confidence and exposing fissures between the government and the armed forces is the best scenario for regime change outside of the recent U.S. efforts.

For now, it appears the Maduro regime and the Venezuelan armed forces have regained control of the territory and settled the dispute between the ex-FARC groups. But if attacks by the FARC groups resume, in Venezuela or Colombia, it could indicate an unraveling of the status quo and trouble for the regime. Another sign of trouble would be if Russia, which has a vested interest in the Maduro regime’s survival, increased its support, particularly militarily. Finally, Colombia’s response must be monitored. To date, the Colombian government has sent some military reinforcements to areas where people fleeing the violence have crossed the border, but it has steered clear of direct intervention. Any moves by the guerrillas or missteps by the Venezuelan military into Colombia that necessitate a response from Bogota could also upset the balance.
Title: Venezuela subtracts six zeros from currency, second overhaul in three years
Post by: DougMacG on October 08, 2021, 12:05:24 PM
Could we just put this in our Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden US economic policy preview thread:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-subtract-six-zeros-currency-second-overhaul-three-years-2021-10-01/

Venezuela subtracts six zeros from currency, second overhaul in three years
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"It can't happen here."   - That's what they said there.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/01/key-inflation-gauge-watched-by-the-federal-reserve-hits-another-30-year-high.html

Just getting started...
Title: GPF: Venezuela, Russia, US
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 26, 2022, 04:59:08 AM
January 26, 2022
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Venezuela Could Be the Next Front in the US-Russian Standoff
The real danger isn’t that Moscow will deploy forces but that low-level proxy conflicts will get out of hand.
By: Allison Fedirka

When elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers. Few understand this better than Latin America, which has been drawn into disputes between great powers in North America and Eurasia before, and might again. The focal point of the latest standoff between the U.S. and Russia is Ukraine, in Russia’s own front yard, but Moscow sees an opportunity to level the playing field by supporting destabilizing forces in Latin America. Russian diplomats in recent weeks have talked up the possibility of deploying weapons in the region, but the likelier danger is that violence along the Colombian-Venezuelan border could escalate and draw in Moscow and Washington.

Shades of the Cold War

Russia and Venezuela have for years found kinship in their mutual disdain for the United States. Recently, however, there has been a clear shift, particularly from Russia, from a loose friendship to a closer alliance with bellicose undertones. It started when Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, proposed deploying military infrastructure to Venezuela and Cuba. Two weeks later, Russia's ambassador to Venezuela again raised the issue of Russian-Venezuelan military cooperation. Venezuela’s constitution prohibits the hosting of foreign bases, the ambassador noted, but it doesn’t rule out collaboration at ports. (He also compared the Venezuelan government’s 2019 political crisis to the sorts of color revolutions witnessed in Russia’s near-abroad, while Venezuela’s defense minister complained – without evidence – that NATO is gaining ground in Latin America and using Colombia – which is only an observer in the alliance and thus does not influence discussions or operations – as a pawn.) The Kremlin has also made it a point to draw attention to high-level talks between the two countries, including a call last week between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro.

This shift has not gone unnoticed in the U.S. and Colombia. Though neither has advocated a joint response to Russia’s moves, both have made clear that they reject the Kremlin’s influence in Venezuela’s affairs. Colombia, which closed its border with Venezuela over Caracas’ alleged support for Colombian guerrillas in the border area, said it would not be blackmailed by Russia into reopening the border. For its part, the U.S. said it would respond decisively if Russia deployed military hardware to the area, as Ryabkov suggested. It also warned in December about foreign interference in Colombia’s 2022 presidential election – a favorite Russian tactic. But otherwise, Washington’s response has been subdued. Immediately after Ryabkov’s remarks, the U.S. Air Force flew a reconnaissance aircraft over the Caribbean, but Washington did not widely publicize the move. Similarly, Washington has preferred not to put too much emphasis on Russian activities and collusion with the Venezuelan government and guerrilla groups, instead letting unofficial figures do most of the talking.

It’s all very reminiscent of the Cold War. Ryabkov’s remarks in particular called up memories of the Cuban Missile Crisis. But the idea of Russia moving significant military assets to Venezuela is impractical and should be considered a reminder of American vulnerabilities rather than a specific threat. This kind of deployment would require substantial funding and logistical capabilities that are already tied up in Russia’s near-abroad. Further, Venezuela’s general volatility discourages Russia (or anyone else) from placing major valuable assets there.

But Moscow doesn’t need to deploy major military assets to draw Washington’s attention to dangers closer to home. During the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis was the exception. Most of the Soviet Union’s moves in Latin America involved supporting radical left-wing political and guerrilla movements – the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, the Tupamaros in Uruguay, and the original Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) – that threatened U.S. interests in the region. The strategy was extremely effective, even leading the U.S. on several occasions to sponsor coups in the region to bring pro-American governments to power.

Russia is more likely to repeat this strategy of supporting guerrillas and criminals in Latin America than it is to deploy major military assets. Both would divert U.S. attention and resources and give Russia leverage in negotiations, but the former involves far lower costs and risk.

Simmering Conflict

With that in mind, recent clashes near the Venezuelan border between Colombian guerrilla groups, and between those guerrillas and the Venezuelan military, take on new significance. Smuggling and crime is a mainstay of the Colombian-Venezuelan border area. Occasional struggles over territory have been known to occur. But since the start of 2022, the neighboring states of Apure, Venezuela, and Arauca, Colombia, have seen a notable increase in violence. In January alone, Colombia’s Arauca department has registered armed clashes in the municipalities of Saravena, Tame, Fortul, Arauquita and Arauca (as well as Cubara municipality in neighboring Boyaca department). The fighting has left at least 34 people dead and has displaced nearly 1,000 more. In the most notable incident, a car bomb detonated on Jan. 20 in Saravena in an attack the Colombian defense minister blamed on a dissident FARC group. The bombing was planned in and financed by Venezuela, he said.

Tension Areas Along the Colombia-Venezuela Border
(click to enlarge)

Besides the challenge the guerrillas themselves pose, the Colombian government faces the added difficulty of distinguishing them from the Venezuelan government. Several of the groups have direct ties to Maduro’s government, and many of them profit from illicit trade along the porous border and seek refuge from law enforcement in Venezuela. The National Liberation Army (ELN) has resided in Venezuela for decades and was strengthened by the dismantling of the FARC after its 2016 peace deal. With an estimated 2,500 members, the ELN has a stronghold in Apure and the support of the Maduro government, which not only ignores ELN activities but even supports the group directly via military operations. Former FARC members who rejected the 2016 deal are also still active, numbering about 5,200, and are split between three main groups: Gentil Duarte’s 10th Front, the 28th Front and Ivan Marquez’s Second Marquetalia. According to Colombia’s defense minister, the ELN and Second Marquetalia have aligned in a war against Duarte’s 10th Front and the 28th Front for control of territory and drug routes.

Why does this matter? First, because of the risk that the skirmishes could balloon into a proxy battle between great powers. In March 2021, a Russian soldier was reportedly involved in a Venezuelan military operation against a dissident FARC group in Apure, Venezuela. There are also unconfirmed reports that Russian private military contractors have trained Venezuelan troops. On the other side, the ELN claims that the 10th and 28th fronts are coordinating with Colombian and U.S. authorities, including the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. In November, the U.S. designated both the Second Marquetalia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia-People's Army – which includes the 10th and 28th fronts – as terrorist groups, but from Cold War history we know this doesn’t preclude the possibility of collusion.

Military Operations Against Ex-FARC Factions | Venezuela
(click to enlarge)

A second concern is the nature and targets of the violence. Last June, a dissident FARC group attacked Colombian President Ivan Duque’s helicopter with small arms fire at Camilo Daza Airport in Cucuta. Earlier that month, the group detonated a car bomb inside a military base in Cucuta, injuring 36 people, including a few U.S. advisers. In both cases the Colombian government said funding and plans for the attacks originated in Venezuela. But even in the wake of the Cucuta car bombing, the U.S. took no major overt action; its only public response was to send the FBI to support the investigation. Months later, in September, Colombia arrested two Venezuelan soldiers on its territory. Bogota also raised the alarm about Venezuela violating its airspace – a fairly common occurrence.

And yet, both Venezuela and Colombia have kept their emotions in check. The reason is that neither is interested in a larger conflict with the other right now. The most notable action so far came when Colombia decided in October to send 14,000 security personnel to the border, primarily the Norte Santander department. Smaller security reinforcements were more recently dispatched to Arauca. Similarly, Venezuela has deployed more military assets in Apure department to support its allies among the Colombian guerrillas and to quell its opponents. Bogota and Caracas have endured periods of extreme domestic violence and instability, during which the neighboring country proved to be a good recourse for people in search of safety (and economic opportunity). A war would mean rupturing this mutually beneficial arrangement.

Moreover, direct conflict risks drawing in the U.S. and Russia. And while Bogota and Caracas value their relationships with Washington and Moscow, respectively, neither wants to enter a conflict where they would be at the mercy of their more powerful sponsors. Instead of a Colombia-Venezuela issue, it could transform into a new frontline between the U.S. and Russia. This unstable arrangement works for now, but the risk of a proxy conflict grows the longer the Venezuelan-backed guerrilla groups remain active in Colombia and U.S.-Russian relations remain tense.
Title: Iran acquires 2.5M acres of Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 21, 2022, 02:45:48 PM
Iran Acquires 2.5 Million Acres of Venezuela
by Lawrence A. Franklin  •  September 21, 2022 at 5:30 am

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The land grant will ostensibly be used to grow staple crops... allowing water-starved Iran to better feed its population... Iran's current use of Venezuela, however... combined with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), raise the possibility that Iran and its surrogate terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, might be using the vast acreage for military and terrorist operations.

The Maduro regime has apparently been so welcoming to Iranian intelligence agents that some of Hezbollah's long-established Latin American network at the tri-border nexus of Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay has been overtaken by Hezbollah activities on Venezuela's Margarita Island [a tourist area northeast of the country's mainland].

Iran, along with the Chinese Communist Party, is in the process of strengthening Venezuela's military against the US, for instance by deliveries of military drones, which are also considered a threat by Columbia.

Iran's alliance with Venezuela most importantly provides Tehran with opportunities to target US interests in Latin America and potentially the southern United States.

China, Russia and Iran were reported to be running military drills in Latin America last month. According to the Center for a Secure Free Society, this is a "strategic move that seeks to preposition forward deployed military assets in Latin America and the Caribbean."

Iran, along with Venezuela, seems to be using its influence with other Latin American governments to develop an anti-US coalition in America's backyard. In addition, Iran sent a destroyer, the Sahand, and a support vessel -- the intelligence-gathering Makran -- to Venezuela in the spring of 2021. The Makran set sail on the mission "with seven high-speed missile-attack craft strapped to its deck."

Iran's massive interference in Venezuela's affairs should raise concerns about the hemisphere's democracies and whether Caracas is still sovereign.

Iran and Venezuela also appear to have established an air bridge between Tehran and Caracas. The flights are manned by Iranian crews and enable both regimes to maintain secrecy in the possible global transport of weapons and terrorist operatives.

Tehran's cooperation with Venezuelan intelligence agencies, although less visible, is also intense. The Islamic Republic's support for Hezbollah terrorist operations is pervasive throughout Latin America.

Occasionally Iranians have been apprehended by US border guards illegally crossing America's long, porous border with Mexico. These illegal aliens could be fulfilling passive missions such as manning Iran's Hezbollah cells in the US, while others could be commissioned to execute intelligence or terrorist-support operations.

Latin America's Iranian Hezbollah network appears poised to strike democratic interests throughout the hemisphere.


Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meets with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Tehran on June 11, 2022. (Image source: khamenei.ir)

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro this June during a visit to Iran signed a multidimensional, 20-year cooperation treaty. The pact includes agreements on science and technology as well as deals on agriculture, communications, culture and tourism. The Maduro regime's startling provision of one million hectares (roughly 2.5 million acres; nearly 4,000 square miles) of farmland to Iran was kept under wraps until Iranian agrarian economist Ali Revanizadeh disclosed it to the Venezuelan media.

The land grant will ostensibly be used to grow staple crops, such as corn and soy beans, allowing water-starved Iran to better feed its population. Iran's current use of Venezuela, however (here, here and here ), combined with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), raise the possibility that Iran and its surrogate terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas , might be using the vast acreage for military and terrorist operations.
Title: GPF: Mending ties with Venezuela? Latin America?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 19, 2022, 02:22:39 AM
Have not read this closely, but initial read does not impress

ober 17, 2022
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An Opportunity for the US and Venezuela

The political costs of mending ties with otherwise estranged regimes have rarely been lower.
By: Allison Fedirka

The COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the current energy crisis and the looming economic recession are disrupting the geopolitical world order, even in places like the Western Hemisphere that were once thought to be comparatively immutable. Driving the process is, unsurprisingly, the United States, whose interests there remain unchanged but whose strategy for pursuing them has become more flexible. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Venezuela. Rumors of sanctions relief are circulating among U.S. policymakers, think tanks and investors, and White House officials claim new policies are under review, even as they insist no changes are in the offing.

The U.S. understands that it needs to revitalize its relationships in the Western Hemisphere. Geography dictates that U.S. security and prosperity depend largely on the relative well-being of its neighbors, an interdependent system predicated on the notion that hemispheric stability enables Washington to project power globally. The inroads U.S. competitors such as China and Russia have made in Latin America over the past few decades threaten to upend that stability. The U.S. National Security Strategy released last week acknowledged as much, so it only makes sense for Washington to reassess its ties with a country like Venezuela, which has been estranged from Washington for much of the 21st century and under the influence of China and Russia accordingly.

Incentives

Of course, Latin America has been experiencing political and ideological changes of its own. For a generation after the Cold War, the region was characterized by a fairly simple political alliance system: Democratic, free-market governments continued to align with the U.S. while governments with a more populist approach to governance and economic policy aligned with more autocratic regimes like Russia and China. Citizens and governments alike eventually concluded that this failed to meet their needs, so a new political blueprint emerged, one that allowed governments to pursue a more pragmatic economic policy and a foreign policy divorced from political ideology.

The circumstances within and without Latin America mean that the political costs for mending ties with otherwise estranged regimes have rarely been lower, while the incentives for new partnerships are all in place: for the U.S., a weak China and Russia, a need to stem northbound migration, the urgency of near-shoring for supply chain security, and greater cooperation in energy and food security; for many Latin American countries, a strong strategic partner in these trying and potentially more difficult economic times.

Washington’s success will depend partly on how flexible it is willing and able to be. For most of its history and especially since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has approached Latin America ideologically, seemingly prioritizing things like democratic values and moral obligation – which has limited who it engages in the region and how it engages them. But a newfound sense of flexibility has opened for Washington and the Cuban regime to reengage on select issues of common interest, and there is evidence that something similar is slowly and measuredly underway with Venezuela. Earlier this year, certain sanctions were eased to facilitate Chevron’s relationship with state-owned oil company PDVSA (even if nothing drastically changed Venezuela’s access to and engagement in international markets). In September, the Maduro government handed over wanted criminals to the U.S., while Washington cut a $367 million check to the Maduro government to help aid migrant flows. But perhaps the most telling development came early this month, when Venezuela released seven imprisoned U.S. citizens in exchange for two Venezuelans held in the U.S. Their release occurred roughly three months after the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, Jorge Rodriguez, received a U.S. delegation that included its chief hostage negotiator, Roger Carstens.

Alignment

There are other potential areas of cooperation. One is the current energy crisis. The Maduro government needs to rescue its economy. It can’t do that without rehabilitating its oil industry, it can’t rehabilitate the oil industry without greater access to investment and international markets, and it can’t get access to either if it is still an American adversary. The U.S. government needs more reliable energy partners down the road. Demand for oil isn’t going down, and Washington has learned time and again the dangers of having Saudi Arabia and Russia be the arbiters of energy markets.

Another is hemispheric security. Colombia – a stalwart U.S. ally in the region – figures prominently in U.S. hemispheric security, thanks to its location along the southern rim of the Caribbean basin. Colombia’s most pressing national interests – stemming the flow of Venezuelan migrants and reducing insecurity caused by guerrilla groups – require the Colombian government to improve its relationship with Venezuela. Colombia thus reopened its border with Venezuela and requested President Nicolas Maduro to serve as guarantor in peace talks between Bogota and anti-government rebels. Maduro agreed. (Caracas’ buy-in is essential because Venezuela often shelters many of the rebel groups Bogota needs to make peace with.) Put simply, if the U.S. wants to maintain ties with Colombia, it needs to get on board with the Colombia-Venezuela rapprochement.

ELN and Other Guerrilla Presence in Colombia and Venezuela
(click to enlarge)

A third is immigration. The pandemic wreaked havoc on Latin American economics, and the return of almost-normal travel patterns resulted in an influx of migrants along the U.S.-Mexican border. Though the exodus of Venezuelans did not affect the U.S. initially, there has since been a notable increase in the number of Venezuelans reaching U.S. borders, many by land routes through Central America and Mexico. From October 2021 to August 2022, U.S. border officials picked up over 150,000 Venezuelans, more than three times higher than in the previous year. Unsurprisingly, the status of Venezuelans has recently been integrated into U.S.-Mexico cooperation mechanisms for migration border enforcement. (Notably, Mexico has said easing sanctions on Venezuela would do more to fight immigration than mere border enforcement.)

Venezuelan Migration Through Central America
(click to enlarge)

Naturally, this apparent alignment of interests between the U.S. and Venezuela has called into question the standing of the Venezuelan opposition. Over the past four years, Washington has softly backed away from its support for opposition forces led by Juan Guaido. Since declaring a parallel government in early 2019, the opposition has failed to gain control of government institutions and economic centers and has lost the faith of many public supporters. These days, the U.S. has been dangling the prospect of sanctions relief to both the government and the opposition to encourage them to break their political impasse and find a way to hold free and fair elections. (This looser backing of the Venezuelan opposition also puts the U.S. in closer alignment with other regional players like Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and to a lesser extent Brazil and Ecuador that do not support the inclusion of Venezuelan opposition groups in formal regional affairs.)

Immigration and hemispheric security may not be major concerns for Venezuela, but they are pressure points for the U.S. that could compel Washington to rethink its stance on Venezuela. There's also a clear shared interest on the energy issue and a common desire for improved economic conditions. One way of laying the groundwork for these conditions is by lifting sanctions, which would have an obvious economic benefit for Venezuela and, for the U.S., could discourage illicit activities and migrants from heading to its southern border. Given the alignment of interests and geopolitical incentives for both the U.S. and the Maduro regime, the prospect of the U.S. easing sanctions on Venezuela in the coming weeks or months is not unreasonable
Title: Re: GPF: Mending ties with Venezuela? Latin America?
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2022, 07:16:43 AM
Strengthening Venezuela with Madura in charge is a no-win situation.  And since when is this administration concerned with who comes across our southern border?  Did the arrival of illegals on Martha's Vineyard get their attention?

Examine the Biden logic.  Shut down a pipeline from Alberta Canada, tank the Canadian dollar, then help the oppressive, totalitarian regime of Chavez-Maduro rebuild the wealth and strength of the regime.  What could go wrong.


(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.chartoasis.com%2Fcharts%2Fcad-usd-2-years-chart-desktop.png&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=8b0cdf007fe4509e87c2c4ab9bf8323abcbc64c976fbad322332878fd4de1119&ipo=images)
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 29, 2022, 04:51:54 PM
Venezuela Seeks to Leverage U.S. Energy Needs to Free Iran's Super-Influencer
by Maria Zuppello
Special to IPT News
November 29, 2022

https://www.investigativeproject.org/9290/venezuela-seeks-to-leverage-us-energy-needs-to
Title: GPF: Venezuela-Iran
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 09, 2023, 08:44:29 AM
Iran and Venezuela. Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi met with Venezuela’s new ambassador to Tehran. As Washington moves toward a rapprochement with Caracas, Raisi said the U.S.’ aim is to gain access to Venezuela’s energy resources and wealth. Iran and Venezuela have significantly increased bilateral cooperation over the past year, but Venezuela’s willingness to normalize relations with the U.S. may hinder attempts at further consolidation.
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2023, 12:06:37 PM
March 31, 2023
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Colombia’s Interest in Ending the Venezuelan Crisis
Resolution of the crisis could improve Bogota’s regional standing.
By: Allison Fedirka

Venezuelans will have an opportunity to resolve their country’s political crisis during the 2024 presidential election. However, several things would need to go right. The Colombian government is hard at work to make sure that they do.

Colombia has a fundamental interest in Venezuela’s stability and economic well-being. Declining living conditions in Venezuela have sparked a mass emigration to Colombia, or through it en route to other destinations. At immense financial, administrative and security costs to itself, Colombia, a country with a population of a little over 50 million, hosts nearly 2.5 million Venezuelans. Others enter Colombia to buy cheaper goods, which they then consume or resell in Venezuela, leading to shortages of some goods in border towns. And the pervasive lawlessness has propped up Colombian militant groups, most notably the National Liberation Army (ELN).

At the same time, Colombia wants to reap the rewards of being Washington’s preferred partner in the U.S.’ Caribbean strategy. Bogota worries that a U.S.-Venezuela rapprochement would divert U.S. aid to support humanitarian and reconstruction efforts in Venezuela, while private investors could sideline Colombia for new opportunities across the border.

To ensure that it has a place at the table, Colombia is positioning itself as a regional leader and the protector of other Latin American states impacted by the Venezuelan crisis. When President Gustavo Petro took office last year, he immediately restored diplomatic ties with Venezuela, opening a direct line to the Maduro government. He plans to host a meeting in April of U.S., Latin American and European officials to discuss Venezuela, with the goal of establishing a working group to outline a technical and political roadmap for sanctions relief. Informally, Washington has said it will attend the event, which it has helped coordinate.

The end goal is to get the Venezuelan government and opposition back to the negotiating table so that they can agree on how to conduct next year’s elections and end the political gridlock. Previous talks in Mexico stalled after both sides insisted on preconditions. The Maduro government (and the opposition) wanted the lifting of sanctions on the state oil company, PDVSA, which Washington rejected. The opposition demanded that the government release political prisoners and hold fair elections. Colombia is offering itself as an interlocutor that can break the stalemate. It understands the importance of getting U.S. and European buy-in for a reset, since they will need to recognize the legitimacy of any election and they will be critical sources of investment for Venezuela’s reconstruction.

Colombia also stands to improve its standing with other South American countries hosting Venezuelan refugees. Colombia has been hardest hit, but others have also incurred extra expenses from providing for the influx of refugees and migrants. Despite their best efforts, Latin American governments have not received significant funding from international organizations to help with the refugee and migrant flow. The crisis has also damaged some bilateral relationships, such as between Peru and Ecuador, and Chile and Bolivia. If Colombia can claim credit for helping to resolve the Venezuelan crisis, and ending the migration problem, then its reputation among its neighbors will get a boost.

Venezuelan Immigrants in Latin America
(click to enlarge)

Historic Migration Episodes
(click to enlarge)

There are also signs that Bogota is working to link the Colombian and Venezuelan energy sectors. This would ensure Colombia’s direct involvement in reconstruction efforts and keep it from being completely bypassed for future investments. Both governments have recently talked about the need to boost natural gas production, where energy-rich Venezuela has a key role to play. Colombia’s Ecopetrol has asked the U.S. to waive sanctions to allow it to negotiate with PDVSA. Colombia is also studying purchases of gas from Venezuela and considering buying the Monomeros fertilizer plant from PDVSA. Finally, Ecopetrol also has an advisory contract to export and distribute natural gas from Colombia. In the past, Venezuela was a major oil supplier to Central American and Caribbean nations heavily dependent on energy imports. Though it will take years and billions of dollars in investment to restore Venezuela’s oil and gas production potential, now is the time to start envisioning such projects.

Venezuela's Crude Oil Production and Exports
(click to enlarge)

For its part, the Maduro government has taken some steps to justify the lifting of oil sanctions. Earlier in March, the government announced that it had uncovered a major corruption scandal involving the disappearance of between $3 billion and $5 billion from PDVSA. The sum represented 12 percent of 2022 revenue and led to the dismissal of several officials, as well as the resignation of Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami. President Nicolas Maduro immediately ordered PDVSA’s restructuring and announced the reorganization of the country's National Superintendence of Cryptoassets. In addition to needing all the funding it can get, the Maduro government is eager to portray itself as trustworthy and transparent so that sanctions might be eased.

Colombia’s intentions and strategy are clear, but execution requires it to overcome two main challenges that are beyond its control. First, it needs Venezuela to reduce its involvement with rebel groups like the ELN. This is hard for Caracas to do, given the financial and strategic benefits of the relationships. Second, it needs the U.S. to agree to lift sanctions. On March 27, Colombian Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva met with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to coordinate plans related to the upcoming summit on Venezuela. (He also said that Colombia would not pull any surprises and that Maduro may be present.) Some members of the U.S. government remain skeptical of the Colombian strategy given the ELN’s relationship with drug trafficking and the Maduro regime, while others said sanctions will be lifted only once democracy is restored in Venezuela. In any case, Colombia is setting itself up to lead the crisis resolution effort, and it stands to reap economic benefits associated with Venezuela’s eventual reconstruction.
Title: GPF: Venezuela-Iran
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 16, 2023, 03:46:44 PM
Allies. Iran and Venezuela signed 19 agreements on mining, petrochemistry, transport and agro-industry during Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s visit to Caracas. Raisi is on a tour of Latin America that will also include stops in Nicaragua and Cuba. 
Title: MY: Venezuela-Guyana
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 03, 2023, 06:33:07 AM
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/4948608/alert
Title: Guyana
Post by: ccp on December 03, 2023, 09:05:38 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana

interesting only ~ 800K population one of the least populated on Earth

official language is English

reading through the Wikipedia just noticed the libs will
point out :

don't say gay in Guyana!

border dispute is mentioned in the Wikipedia info.

Title: MY: Venezuela-Guyana 90% chance of war
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 04, 2023, 09:16:02 AM
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/4953063/based-on-my-knowledge-of-situation-global-relations-etc-am-guessing-90-chance-this-eventually-g
Title: WSJ: Venezuela breaks another promise
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 04, 2023, 09:42:53 AM
second

enezuela Breaks Another Promise
It misses a deadline to release prisoners and reinstate the opposition under a deal that eased U.S. sanctions.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Dec. 3, 2023 6:11 pm ET




Well, that was predictable. On Nov. 30 the Maduro regime in Venezuela ignored the U.S. deadline to lay out a process to reinstate opposition candidates for a 2024 presidential election. Will the Biden Administration take it lying down?

In return for that Maduro promise, made Oct. 17 with the democratic opposition, the Biden Administration eased sanctions for six months on the export of Venezuelan oil and new investment in the country. The U.S. also lifted bans on dealing with the government-owned mining company and on trading some Venezuelan securities.

At the time Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. had “conveyed our expectation and understanding that” by Nov. 30 Venezuela would “define a specific timeline and process for the expedited reinstatement of all candidates” who had been banned from running. He added that opposition candidates had the right to run on “a level electoral playing field” that includes “freedom of movement” and guarantees of “their physical safety.”

He also said that Venezuela had to “begin the release of all wrongfully detained U.S. nationals and Venezuelan political prisoners.” Mr. Blinken warned that “failure to abide by the terms of this arrangement will lead the United States to reverse steps we have taken.”

The Blinken deadline passed on Thursday. Venezuela released five political prisoners in October but it still holds some 270, including three Americans that the State Department deems wrongfully detained. The regime also hasn’t reinstated banned presidential candidates, including the popular Maria Corina Machado.

Instead, on Thursday the Maduro government issued a statement, along with the official opposition, that instructed banned candidates to solicit the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court between Dec. 1 and Dec. 15 for a reversal of the prohibition on their right to run. The regime’s statement reminded applicants that they are censored and must not be disrespectful toward the state.

The weak opposition may feel it has no choice other than to go along with this game-playing by Mr. Maduro. But the U.S. has no such excuse. The State Department statement late Friday called sending banned candidates to beseech a politicized court “an important development,” without elaboration. The statement said it is “deeply concerned” by the regime’s failure to release prisoners, and it promised to say more in the coming days.

But there have to be consequences for the regime’s failure to meet its commitments. Venezuelan democrats deserve better than more statements in the coming days.


Title: WSJ: Venezuela covets Guyana's oil
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 04, 2023, 09:46:16 AM
third

Venezuela Covets Guyana’s Oil Fields
Would Biden stop the Maduro regime from invading a much weaker neighbor?
Mary Anastasia O’Grady
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady


Sunday’s referendum in Venezuela asked the electorate if it agrees that two-thirds of Guyana actually belongs to Venezuela. The dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro sought a “yes” vote and thought it had a lay-up.

Guyana was a British colony in 1899 when a Paris tribunal ratified its dominion over the Essequibo region. Caracas has long disputed the ruling. From early childhood Venezuelans marinate in the doctrine that the land was stolen from them. So approval on all five referendum questions—including one that proposed the creation of a new Venezuelan state—was the heavy favorite.

Late Sunday morning, the regime claimed robust turnout; by afternoon, the opposition posted photos of empty polling stations and reported high abstention. As we went to press, official results weren’t in. But it almost doesn’t matter. The failing Mr. Maduro seems intent on picking a fight with a neighbor. The only questions are how far he will go and what it will cost him.

The referendum was a call to Venezuelans to rally ’round the flag, which is the oldest trick in the tyrant’s manual for what to do when things are going badly. And they are.

The economy has collapsed since Mr. Maduro took office in 2013. Venezuelan living standards, once the envy of South America, are in the tank. Some 7.5 million people, or a quarter of the population, have emigrated, tearing families apart. Pressure is increasing on the dictatorship to lift the ban on the 2024 presidential candidacy of popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

The other reason Mr. Maduro held the referendum is that the disputed Guyanese land corresponds to what is believed to be enormous oil reserves off its coast. Venezuela’s incompetence and corruption mean it can’t even extract the oil it has within its own borders. But Mr. Maduro sees the nation next door getting rich and reflexively needs to object. Envy, after all, is the mother of communism.

In 2015 Exxon Mobil made the first crude discovery in the Stabroek Block in Guyanese waters. The “gross recoverable resource,” according to the company, “is now estimated to be more than eight billion oil equivalent barrels” from more than a dozen successful wells. In all there are an estimated 11 billion oil equivalent barrels in Guyanese waters, and at least five other international oil companies are working in the area.

In September Guyana received bids for exploration and exploitation of eight new blocks. But unlike the existing wells, where Exxon, its partners, and some competitors are already bringing up crude, the oil resources in the recently auctioned blocks are off the coast of the Essequibo region. Mr. Maduro wants them.

In 1966 Venezuela and Guyana agreed to disagree about the territory in the Geneva Agreement. In March 2018 the United Nations used the authority provided by that accord to assign the case to the International Court of Justice in The Hague, which is expected to rule on the matter early next year.


Sunday’s referendum suggests that Venezuela, which more than once has asserted that the court has no jurisdiction to rule on the dispute, doesn’t like its odds and is prepared to take matters into its own hands. Last week a token number of Venezuelan military were rumored to have moved close to the border. Brazil put its military on high alert in the region. U.S. Army special forces leadership met with its Guyanese counterparts last week, but U.S. Southern Command declined to comment on Friday. The State Department didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The invasion of the Falkland Islands might have bought unpopular Argentine dictator Leopoldo Galtieri some support in 1982—if British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher hadn’t been so determined to wave the Union Jack.

Perhaps Mr. Maduro has that Galtieri adventure in mind since there is no Thatcher equivalent these days. Deterrence, particularly from the U.S., seems to be lacking.

Military aggression against a smaller sovereign nation won’t go over well, even among the usual Maduro allies. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacío “Lula” da Silva is a supporter of both the Cuban and Venezuelan military dictatorships. But he’s also an advocate of the peaceful resolution of cross-border disputes using international courts.

Nor can Mr. Maduro count on Havana to back him. Cuba has long leaned on the English-speaking Caribbean for support at the U.N. and in other international forums. Their first allegiance is to Guyana. Even China, which is making oil investments in Guyanese waters, doesn’t want an invasion.

Finally, one of the most important tests of jurisdiction is the self-determination of the local population. It’s unlikely that the Guyanese living in the Essequibo want to become Venezuelans.

Yet despite widespread disapproval of what the world seems to have already judged as a provocation against a peaceful neighbor, it would be unwise to underestimate the desperation building up in Caracas. If Mr. Maduro finds he has painted himself into a corner, desperate measures won’t be out of the question. Cuba, Brazil and China are unlikely to stand on principle.

Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Title: Venezuela exploits Biden weakness
Post by: DougMacG on December 06, 2023, 05:38:31 AM
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/venezuela-exploits-bidens-weakness
Title: GPF: Venezuela-Gyuana-US
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 18, 2023, 06:46:31 AM
December 18, 2023
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A Border Dispute Pits US Interests Against Each Other
The repercussions from the Guyana-Venezuela standoff will be hemispheric.
By: Allison Fedirka
The leaders of Venezuela and Guyana met on Dec. 14 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines for talks meant to ease tensions along their shared border. Though the rhetoric was pleasant enough, the talks did little to improve their respective security postures. The Venezuelan legislature did, however, delay the approval of a law that would annex Esequiba, the resource-rich territory that is the source of the current standoff.

The dispute itself is hardly new. It dates back to the 1897 Treaty of Washington, which initially demarcated Venezuela’s and Guyana’s borders. (The boundaries wouldn’t be finalized until 1899.) In 1962, Venezuela stopped recognizing the border and asserted new territorial claims. The International Court of Justice is hearing those claims, but Caracas has said it would not honor any court decision that sides with Guyana. For Venezuela, this isn’t just a matter of national pride; it’s a geostrategic issue that could make or break the country’s direct access to the Atlantic Ocean and provide much-needed oil revenue to the government.

Guyana's Disputed Resources

(click to enlarge)

Even so, there are other factors that gave Caracas a new sense of urgency. President Nicolas Maduro is in talks with the United States and his own political opposition over democratic concessions that would weaken his hold on power but would, in theory, help the country through a longstanding political deadlock and revive its stagnant economy. The Esequiba issue is a way Maduro can improve his negotiating position by trumping up national interest without vilifying the United States and without violating the terms of the Barbados Accord, which laid the groundwork for elections in 2024. Adhering to the accord will go a long way toward the continued easing of U.S. sanctions. Washington has been easing sanctions against Venezuela for over a year now, and the results are starting to show in the country’s oil industry; the government has seen notable gains in production levels and revenue from export sales. This is why, on Dec. 3, Venezuela held a non-binding referendum that reasserted its sovereignty over Esequiba.



(click to enlarge)



(click to enlarge)



(click to enlarge)

Venezuela’s claim is also meant to remind the U.S. of its long-term business interests in Venezuela. The complaint emphasizes an agreement between Guyana and Exxon Mobile for oil exploration and production in the Stabroek block, which is believed to be one of the most promising offshore areas but parts of which fall directly off the coast of disputed territories. Guyana has been awarding concessions and accepting bids in waters that have not been established as its own. The government was able to continue so long as Venezuela didn’t challenge it. Guyanese crude production has increased, and exploration investments are expected to rise after the latest licensing round for eight offshore blocks. Put simply, Caracas knows that instability and uncertainty will threaten the bottom lines of Guyana and the U.S. companies it does business with.

Meanwhile, the Maduro government has approached Western energy companies to recommence operations at dormant offshore natural gas projects and exploration for new blocks on the Deltana Platform, near its maritime border with Guyana. These companies include BP, Chevron and Melbana Energy. Other potential candidates include Repsol, Eni and Maurel & Prom. Venezuelan officials have also traveled to Moscow, almost certainly to discuss energy trade and cooperation.

The signal is clear: While Maduro is open to working with the West, he isn’t afraid to pressure U.S. companies, nor is he unwilling to work with Russia. All of this has put the U.S. in a complicated position.

The Venezuela-Guyana border standoff also pits one U.S. interest against another. On the one hand, Washington wants to compel a political transition in Venezuela. Its end goal is to install a new and preferably pro-U.S. government in Caracas, stabilize the country to stem the flow of immigrants and create a safe economy for Western energy investment. Achieving all these goals would directly or indirectly help create a more secure Western Hemisphere for the United States.

On the other hand, the U.S. cannot support Venezuela if it is threatening to annex lands that are not considered Venezuelan territory under international law. And neither can Washington allow Venezuelan threats toward that end to go unchecked. Thus, on Dec. 7, Washington conducted flyovers in Guyana under the pretext of military drills to communicate to Caracas that it would not tolerate any military action. It was mostly a formality; Venezuela knows that an offensive move would force Guyana to seek the support of powerful allies like the U.S. and jeopardize the sanctions relief it has received and the regional political ties it has forged since 2019.

Washington’s response to the dispute may be an indication of how it will manage future Western Hemispheric affairs. The Monroe Doctrine, which essentially asserts Washington’s right to oppose forays into the Americas, is now 200 years old. Though its eponymous president likely never intended one of his Congressional speeches to be the bedrock of American foreign policy, it has remained in force in various iterations over the years and has been the foundation of U.S.-Latin American security ties since the beginning of the 20th century. But it is in dire need of an overhaul. New political paradigms require new political frameworks. Economics has replaced security as the driver of hemispheric relations; China, Russia and Iran don’t pose as big a security threat to the American mainland as do their commercial interests in Latin America.

Washington understands that its policies ought to reflect as much. It needs to decide how (and whether) it will intervene when two Western Hemispheric countries disagree; how to answer economic security threats from rivals like China; and how it will engage other members of the hemisphere.

For now, a Venezuelan military incursion into Guyana seems unlikely. But if things come to a head, the repercussions will be hemispheric, especially as the Global South becomes more important.
Title: WSJ: Maduro plays Biden for a sucker
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 29, 2024, 06:48:27 PM
enezuela’s Maduro Tricks Biden—Again
Caracas reneges on its vow to let an opposition leader run for president.
By
The Editorial Board
Follow
Jan. 29, 2024 6:35 pm ET


The world is full of surprises, but not in Venezuela. The country’s declaration Friday that popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado can’t run for president was predictable to everyone except the Biden Administration.

Nicolás Maduro, a dictator who took office when Hugo Chávez died in 2013, is supposed to face an election this year. Ms. Machado, who won the opposition’s primary in October with some 90% of the vote, would be a heavy favorite in a fair election given the way Mr. Maduro has destroyed the economy. Which is why the government is blocking her run this year and for the next 15 years.


In October the Maduro government and the opposition signed the Barbados Agreement, a pledge to work toward a free presidential election. The dictatorship made no concessions, but the Biden Administration immediately lifted Trump-era oil and gas sanctions for six months. It also warned that Venezuela had a Nov. 30 deadline to show progress toward removing the government’s ban on opposition candidates, including Ms. Machado.

The regime has since done nothing but harass the opposition and especially members of Ms. Machado’s team. Last Wednesday State Department assistant secretary for the Western Hemisphere Brian Nichols described Caracas foot-dragging as an “extremely difficult moment” and called the harassment “extremely worrying.”

On Thursday Venezuela’s president of the national assembly said Ms. Machado won’t be allowed to run. The next day Mr. Maduro’s hand-picked Supreme Court echoed that declaration, upholding the ban, with charges that she had engaged in conspiracies against the regime. The only “conspiracy” is that she opposes the regime.

On Saturday the State Department said the ruling is “inconsistent with the commitment” made in Barbados. No kidding. State noted that Ms. Machado “neither received a copy of the allegations against her nor was afforded the opportunity to respond to those allegations.” It said the U.S. is “reviewing our Venezuela sanctions policy, based on this development and the recent political targeting of democratic opposition candidates and civil society.”

There isn’t much to review. Mr. Maduro learned his politics from Fidel Castro and isn’t about to step aside. The U.S. was naive to think he’d allow a free election, and the only realistic response is to restore the sanctions.

Title: WSJ: Sen. Rubio: Biden goes flaccid on Maduro
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2024, 05:30:29 PM
Biden Goes Soft on Nicolás Maduro
Venezuela’s dictator promised a free election, then banned his leading opponent.
By Marco Rubio
Feb. 5, 2024 5:54 pm ET


‘They’re not getting a free pass for actions they take that are in contradiction to the commitments that they’ve made to move toward free and fair elections.” So said Secretary of State Antony Blinken of Venezuela’s narco-regime when I questioned him in October about President Biden’s decision to lift sanctions on Caracas. I’ll hold Mr. Blinken to his words: We must restore sanctions on Venezuela immediately.


Dictator Nicolás Maduro told Mr. Biden in October that he would permit a free and fair presidential election this year. Instead, Mr. Maduro has banned his leading opponent, María Corina Machado, from running for the next 15 years, while his thugs have persecuted her team and vandalized her campaign headquarters.

Mr. Biden has responded by restoring sanctions only on Venezuela’s state-owned gold-mining company. He’s waiting until April to restore sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, allowing Mr. Maduro to spend two months shoring up his tyranny. Even after the April deadline, the dictator would be free to sell some sanction-free natural gas and trade off his regime’s debt.

This is an outrageously weak response from a president. For one, this sanction doesn’t help the people of Venezuela. The meager growth that Venezuela’s economy experienced last year has been more than offset by the empowerment of its oppressive regime. There are more political prisoners in Venezuela’s jail cells than before the Biden administration initiated its negotiations.

Mr. Biden’s decision embarrasses the U.S. The more we fail to enforce red lines, the more our adversaries are likely to attack. Our weakness in the Middle East has cost the lives of three Americans, with many more injured. We must re-establish our international credibility, and fast. If emboldened, Mr. Maduro might invade nearby Guyana, which could jeopardize the security of America’s oil and bauxite supply chains.

We have a lot to lose from strengthening such a dangerous regime. Venezuela is one of the main points for U.S. adversaries, including Iran, Russia and China, to enter our hemisphere. The country provides a stronghold for narco-terrorists who produce drugs and spread violence.

So why the inaction? Mr. Biden is hamstrung by socialist sympathizers in his party who believe the Venezuelan migrant crisis is the result of sanctions, not Mr. Maduro’s repressive regime and America’s open border. Mr. Biden must decide whose interests he will serve. Those of the American people or those of his party’s ideologues?

If we continue to appease Mr. Maduro, our hemisphere will become more dangerous and more anti-American. Restoring sanctions would be no silver bullet, but it would be a step in the right direction. I urge Mr. Blinken to hold fast to the commitments he made last October. If not, I will ask him to come before Congress to explain the reason for Mr. Biden’s unconscionable delay.

Mr. Rubio, a Republican, is a U.S. senator from Florida.
Title: Ignore Our Lies or We'll Flood Your Borders
Post by: Body-by-Guinness on February 06, 2024, 04:59:48 PM
Perhaps this is why Biden is such a squish where Venezuela is concerned:


How Venezuela’s dictatorship is weaponizing the US border crisis
The Hill News by Arturo McFields, Opinion Contributor / Feb 6, 2024 at 10:55 AM//keep unread//hide

The Venezuelan dictatorship, with 25 years in power, continues to bet on increasing forced migration as a useful strategy for blackmailing President Biden's administration against reimposing sanctions against the regime.

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has threatened to immediately revoke migrant repatriation flights and review any existing bilateral cooperation mechanism in the even that sanctions return. The threat comes from a regime that took the most prosperous economy in Latin America and forced more than 7 million of its own citizens to emigrate in abject poverty and desperation.

Over the last year, the U.S. had relaxed many of the sanctions against Venezuelan gold, gas and oil in a bid to ensure free elections and help stabilize the nation's deteriorating economy. It seemed like a reasonable proposal, but the dictatorship is not willing to risk two decades of Chavismo and the resultant ill-gotten gains.

Last month, the Supreme Court of Justice, controlled by the regime of Nicolas Maduro, banned the main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, from running for office for 15 years. The ruling closed the doors to any possibility of democratic change and reignited a desire among its 28 million citizens to emigrate.

The weaponization of migration has been part of the old Marxist toolkit since the days of Fidel Castro and the Mariel boatlift. In 1977, President Jimmy Carter tried to promote dialogue and democracy in Cuba, easing sanctions with good faith. All the while, Fidel Castro increased repression and corruption in the Caribbean nation.

This story seems to be repeating itself.

Last year, the communist regimes of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela carried out massive joint operations to promote irregular emigration to the U.S. Cuba provided the migrants, Venezuela the Conviasa airline and Nicaragua the gateway to begin the northward journey toward the U.S. border.

Although this immigration scheme was scaled back due to a timely U.S. response, the Nicaraguan dictatorship has opened other routes to take migrants to the border. Even last December, a charter flight headed to Nicaragua was caught trafficking 276 Indian nationals at an international airport in France.

Manuel Orozco, a researcher at the Inter-American Dialogue, has said that Nicaraguan dictator Daniel Ortega wanted to open the immigration valve for 100,000 people, obtaining millions each month in income taxes on remittances. This is a risky but profitable business.

All around the world, the communist model has been a resounding failure. But migrants fleeing communist systems have generated resounding success. In Nicaragua, during the first six months of 2023, the Ortega regime collected more than $2 billion in remittances. The worse the tyrant, the better forced emigration is for his economy.

In Venezuela, it is clear that the migratory hemorrhage requires something more than walls to stop. A foreign policy and security strategy is needed to address the weaponization of immigration by dictatorships like those of Cuba, Nicaragua or Venezuela, but actions are also needed to prevent the emergence of new tyrannies or failed states like Haiti.

We recently saw an extraordinary example of leadership in Ecuador. The country has not yet emerged from the crisis caused by drug trafficking and gangs, but it is receiving timely international cooperation to avoid a total disaster. Even a divided U.S. Congress presented a bipartisan statement .

Another positive example was the immediate response to the governance crisis in Guatemala. Corrupt power groups wanted to prevent the transfer of leadership to the new president, Bernardo Arevalo. Strong international pressure and the leadership of the U.S. prevented a tragedy there. These have been good recent examples of what can be done to prevent new migration crises.

If we limit ourselves to believing that the migration crisis is solved at the border, we are only addressing part of the problem — the symptoms, but not the disease. Dictatorships, narco-states and corruption are issues that require an urgent and comprehensive response. It is critical for the U.S. to take care of its so-called backyard, promoting democracy, security and prosperity. This is not an expense, but an investment.

Arturo McFields Yescas is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan Ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former volunteer in the Peace Corps of Norway.

https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4443814-how-venezuelas-dictatorship-is-weaponizing-the-us-border-crisis/
Title: Re: Venezuela
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 06, 2024, 05:05:05 PM
I had not thought of that angle.

Good find.
Title: WSJ: Biden appeases Venezuela too
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 12, 2024, 06:05:44 AM
Maduro Plays the Migrant Blackmail Card
Venezuela dares the U.S. to reimpose oil and gas sanctions. Will Biden give in?
Mary Anastasia O’Grady
WSJ
Feb. 11, 2024 3:52 pm ET


Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela’s vice-dictator, warned Washington on Jan. 30 that her government will refuse to accept deported migrants if the U.S. reimposes oil and gas sanctions: “If they make the mistake of intensifying the economic aggression against Venezuela . . . repatriation flights for Venezuelan migrants will be immediately revoked as of Feb. 13.”

This is an act of desperation on the part of an illegitimate government and it’s been complemented by Venezuelan saber-rattling on the Guyanese border. Caracas is feeling the heat from the international community—including left-of-center democracies—to hold a free and fair election this year. Unfortunately, given President Biden’s record of giving in to criminal regimes, there’s reason to fear that the threats will achieve their intended outcome of more sanctions relief. But there’s also a slim margin of hope that they won’t. It depends on whether Mr. Biden is serious about democracy for Venezuela.

Mr. Biden’s timid foreign policy telegraphs trepidation to despots who want to harm America. The president’s January 2022 suggestion that Russia might get away with a “minor incursion” into Ukraine is one example. More recently, there’s his unwillingness to respond effectively to Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. assets. Isolationist Republicans are part of the problem.

Russia, China and Iran also smell U.S. weakness in the Western Hemisphere. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping hold sway over Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. The government promised a competitive vote in 2024 when it signed an October agreement—brokered by Norway—with the opposition at a meeting in Barbados. No one thought Venezuela was serious, except perhaps the Biden administration. The ink wasn’t dry when the U.S. announced that for six months it would lift sanctions on oil and gas investments and sales from Venezuela. Those sanctions had been in place since the Trump administration. Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave Caracas until the end of November to set a “timeline” to reinstate banned presidential candidates and free political prisoners.

When Venezuela blew through that deadline, the U.S. gave it a pass. Days of delay turned into weeks and months. In January the U.S. got its answer: Mr. Maduro’s hand-picked Supreme Court disqualified popular opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado with absurd allegations of conspiracy against her country. The regime has also arrested members of her team.

Ms. Machado won the opposition’s primary last year with more than 90% of the vote and is the heavy favorite to beat Mr. Maduro in a level contest. If the regime can eliminate her candidacy, it hopes a multicandidate field will emerge, fragmenting the opposition. This is an age-old tyrant’s trick to hold on to power while claiming victory at the ballot box. Meantime, Venezuela hasn’t yet issued a campaign calendar. Until it does, international observer teams are unable to organize their missions or launch exploratory visits ahead of the vote.

The good news is that the State Department said in January it is prepared to reimpose the sanctions in April on Venezuelan oil and gas. The bad news is that it said this will happen “absent progress” by Caracas toward a legitimate election. Those words, coming from a U.S. administration that has a history of making excuses for the regime, don’t boost confidence.

Caracas is so used to bullying Mr. Biden and watching him back down that it is trying again with Ms. Rodríguez’s warning on migrants. But blocking entry of Venezuelans into their own country would be a violation of international law. It might give Mr. Maduro a brief feeling of righteous revenge but that’s unlikely to last if the U.S. responds by ending flights between American and Venezuelan airports. Mr. Maduro’s self-imposed isolation from the largest economy in the world would reaffirm Venezuela’s reputation as a rogue state. The right response is to call his bluff.

If Mr. Biden sees an opportunity to throw some crumbs to Washington oil lobbyists in an election year, he could renew the sanctions relief and blame Ms. Rodríguez. But he’d be going against world opinion. On Thursday the European Parliament passed a resolution (446-21) saying it won’t recognize the election if Ms. Machado isn’t allowed to run. The European Union also wants sanctions on Venezuela’s Supreme Court and its security forces for abuses of power against government opponents.

Last week the website of Brazil’s pro-Cuba President Inácio Luiz “Lula” da Silva announced Brazil’s continuing support for implementing the Barbados agreement. Even Juan González, President Biden’s lefty National Security Council adviser for Latin America, said last week that “all candidates must be eligible to compete.” He added that Ms. Machado is “the opposition candidate.”

Yet if that generated any optimism among the Venezuelan opposition it evaporated when Mr. González suggested from Bogotá that Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former left-wing terrorist, play the role of mediator between the Venezuelan dictatorship and the opposition. Apparently Raúl Castro isn’t available.
Title: Venezuela doing a Putin on Guyana
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 15, 2024, 03:54:51 PM
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/5271290/coming-soon

All as Biden gives Wall Street the right to buy Venezuelan bonds, a half million work permits to V'n illegals, V. refuses to take back V. illegals, and breaks promise about elections by blocking opposition candidate.
Title: GPF: Venezuela's "transition"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 19, 2024, 01:39:54 PM
Could benefit from a goodly dose of cynicism , , ,

February 19, 2024
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Open as PDF

Washington Remains Committed to Venezuela’s Transition
But its resolve isn’t absolute.
By: Allison Fedirka

It’s no secret that the United States wants regime change in Venezuela. Since 2019, Washington has intensified its efforts toward that end by boosting support for the political opposition, backing a parallel government and employing sanctions against the state’s most lucrative businesses. But none of these efforts has produced Washington’s desired result – and any future ones will likewise encounter strict limitations.

Washington’s interest in Venezuela lies in its interest in securing the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela’s position in the Caribbean basin, its ties to Cuba, its anti-U.S. alignment and its status as a major drug trafficking country make it uniquely suited to potentially disrupt hemispheric security. For the U.S., a secure Caribbean engenders maritime trade, reduces illicit business flows and keeps adversaries at a comfortable distance. Instability in Venezuela, then, threatens vital U.S. interests. Under the government of President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela has grown markedly less stable, and it shows no sign of stabilizing – not with the U.S. sanctions regime against it, and not with its few allies financially unable to assist it. The status quo will continue to spur emigration, social unrest, nationalist sentiment and political radicalization, so Washington wants to make sure whoever replaces Maduro isn’t indifferent or hostile to U.S. considerations.

Sanctions have been Washington’s tool of choice for forcing Caracas’ hand. The U.S. first employed them in 2014 to target high-profile individuals. In 2018, Washington added state-run companies such as oil firm PDVSA and various financial transactions to the list. This latter round proved particularly costly to the Venezuelan economy, so the next year the U.S. began to allow select energy companies to conduct business with Venezuela under specific conditions. It was not until October 2023 that the U.S. government issued a six-month suspension of all sanctions against Venezuelan state-owned companies and financial transactions – a result of a political agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition known as the Barbados accords, which also called for free and fair elections. Yet at the beginning of 2024, Maduro disqualified the candidacy of the winner of the opposition's primary, calling into question his fealty to the Barbados accords. In response, the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Minerven, the state-run gold company, and threatened to reimpose sanctions on the oil industry by April 18 if no conclusive progress has been made.

Notably, American businesses are against the sanctions. Heavyweights like Chevron, Fidelity Investments, T. Rowe Price and Greylock Capital have much to gain in Venezuela and have thus advocated easing sanctions, arguing that it’s in Washington’s best interest that private U.S. firms are free to counter foreign competitors.

Last year, for example, Russian prospecting company RosGeo signed an agreement with PDVSA that develops technical advising, vocational training and geophysical prospecting for oil and gas deposits. This opens the door for Russian ships to conduct studies off the Venezuelan coast in the Caribbean basin. Certain Wall Street financial firms warned that investors from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Cyprus – all places known for funneling Russian money – had purchased billions of dollars worth of Venezuelan bonds. In response, the U.S. government allowed bond purchases to continue instead of sanctioning them again with the gold mining licenses.

Also factoring into Washington’s Venezuela policy is the need to preserve other relationships in the region. ExxonMobil, for example, has said it plans to drill in Guyana this year. And though it said it would do so in uncontested waters (Venezuela disputes the ownership of some offshore oil wells) the announcement nonetheless triggered Venezuela to again deploy a small number of troops to Guyana’s border. Washington is all but forced to side with Guyana, but it has no interest in a military intervention, which would alienate Washington from the rest of Latin America. To help share the responsibility of stabilizing Venezuela, Washington turned to Colombia and Brazil. Brasilia led talks at the start of this year to help reduce border tensions between Venezuela and Guyana. And Colombian politics, not to mention its close ties with both the U.S. and Venezuela, makes Bogota a key player in facilitating a political resolution in Venezuela.

This latter point is particularly important because Venezuela’s domestic political landscape is among the biggest constraints to improving bilateral ties with the U.S. The Maduro government came to office as the hand-picked successor of Hugo Chavez. Maduro still holds a grip on power through a series of economic, illicit, political and security networks, and he still controls virtually the entire state apparatus. But the country’s dramatic economic decline created political fissures within the once-united Chavista camp centered on Maduro supporters, traditionalists and reformers. Maduro supporters agree with the government’s more aggressive foreign policy and are generally content to turn a blind eye to the domestic crackdowns that have occurred to keep political support in line. Traditional Chavistas criticize Maduro for corruption and mismanagement. They favor a return to the political and economic structures that are consistent with Chavez’s original intentions. This camp finds its support largely among the military and lower classes. The reformists support a more pragmatic approach. Many of them studied overseas and come from the middle class and business class in Venezuela. Their pro-business stance leads to a more pragmatic and technocratic approach to governance.

Then there is the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado. She presents as a technocrat in that she studied finance and public policy both domestically and overseas, but her activism took off in 2013 after Chavez’s death. She is a harsh critic of Maduro and traditional Chavismo. Her political platform calls for systematic reform by reducing the role of state companies, lowering welfare payments, promoting the private sector and weakening the executive’s power. In terms of political capital, she has no rival in the opposition. Her hardline stance has endeared her to the public but has made her a target for the regime.

If the U.S. wants to engage Venezuela, it needs to engage all three groups. It can’t afford to completely circumvent those who control state institutions, nor can it ignore the institutional reformists who, along with the pro-democracy open-economy opposition, would be the vanguard of a political transition, which needs to find a way to allow Maduro to save face. Machado’s rhetoric indicates that she understands Maduro’s position and that there is a greater need to move forward than to retaliate.

All these moving pieces will weigh on Washington’s decision on whether it will renew sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector come April 18. As the political drama unfolds, the U.S. will adjust its calculus – for instance, by determining if it will punish Venezuela for imprisoning political activists and expelling U.N. human rights officials. Washington remains committed to a political transition in Venezuela that includes allowing opposition candidates to run for office, announcing electoral calendars and formally inviting election observers from the European Union. But its resolve is not absolute; even the U.S. must operate within its constraints.
Title: Bidenomics in Venezuela
Post by: DougMacG on February 26, 2024, 06:34:40 PM
If you converted a million dollars into bolivars in 2013 — when Nicolás Maduro first came to power — and left it in an interest-accruing Venezuelan bank for the past decade, your current balance would be about 3 cents.

These policies have these consequences.

Don't let anyone here say what Venezuelans said then, it can't happen here.  Yes it can.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/venezuelas-currency-is-so-worthless-theres-no-point-hiding-pins-zrd7xrjxf