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Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities => Politics & Religion => Topic started by: ccp on June 07, 2013, 09:41:19 PM

Title: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 07, 2013, 09:41:19 PM
too early to ask? :-D

Do the revelations about this WH hurt or help the liar in chief in waiting - aka Hillary?

We all know how the lib media and political crowd will go all out to surround her with moats, booby traps, mines, concrete bunkers and a division of lawyers armed with AK 15 assault rifles (it's politically correct to  use these weapons to protect a major liberal  :lol:).
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 11, 2013, 08:56:46 AM
Aaaaccckkk!!!
Aaarrrggghh!!!

Carry on , , , :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 11, 2013, 09:36:49 AM
I have said from the beginning, Hillary will lose to Hickenlooper. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6-QRiU4HRU   Jobs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T92eNrU5Y4o   Fracking

A good friend of mine says the R ticket will most certainly be Jeb Bush and Chris Christy.

I will save people the trouble of typing:

Aaaaccckkk!!!
Aaarrrggghh!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 18, 2013, 03:01:45 AM
Of course Hillary will be less brash but this is what 2016 will be about.
Women can break through ceilings.....

****Gender war backfires as men ditch Australia PM

Australia's Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, pictured in Sydney, on April 4, 2013. Gillard's attempt to marginalise the opposition by claiming it would change abortion rights and sideline women has backfired with a poll on Monday showing male voters are deserting her.
Australia's Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, pictured in Sydney, on April 4, 2013. Gillard's attempt to marginalise the opposition by claiming it would change abortion rights and sideline women has backfired with a poll on Monday showing male voters are deserting her.

Australian opposition leader, Tony Abbott, pictured in Nowra on the south coast of New South Wales state, on January 9, 2013. PM Julia Gillard, the country's first female leader, last week reignited a simmering gender war by saying in a speech that government would be dominated by "men in blue ties" should Abbott assume office in September elections.
Australian opposition leader, Tony Abbott, pictured in Nowra on the south coast of New South Wales state, on January 9, 2013. PM Julia Gillard, the country's first female leader, last week reignited a simmering gender war by saying in a speech that government would be dominated by "men in blue ties" should Abbott assume office in September elections.



AFP - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's attempt to marginalise the opposition by claiming it would change abortion rights and sideline women has backfired with a poll on Monday showing male voters are deserting her.

Gillard, the country's first female leader, last week reignited a simmering gender war by saying in a speech that government would be dominated by "men in blue ties" should opposition leader Tony Abbott assume office in September elections.

"It's a decision about whether, once again, we will banish women's voice from the core of our political life," said the embattled prime minister in the speech, desperate to shore up waning support.

"We don't want to live in an Australia where abortion again becomes the political plaything of men who think they know better."

But the ploy has backfired with a poll in Fairfax Media showing male voters are abandoning Gillard and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and there is little sign of more women getting behind her.

The telephone poll of 1,400 voters found that since the last survey a month ago Labor's standing has continued to slide, led entirely by a seven percent exodus of men.

Under a two-party vote, the conservative opposition would romp home in the September 14 elections with 57 percent (up three points) to 43 percent (down three points) for Labor.

Labor's primary vote, which strips out the support of minor parties, has slumped to just 29 percent with the opposition at 47 percent -- a huge lead which would wipe out 35 Labor MPs, the poll showed.

Pollster John Stirton said the swing against Labor occurred only among men.

"Labor's primary vote was down seven points among men and up one point among women. The ALP two-party vote fell 10 points among men and rose two points among women,'' he said.

But the poll, taken between Thursday and Saturday, showed that if Gillard's arch-rival Kevin Rudd was returned as Labor leader, their primary vote would be a much more competitive 40 percent to the opposition's 42 percent.

Rudd was ruthlessly ousted by Gillard in a 2010 leadership coup but he remains hugely popular.

The Sydney Daily Telegraph reported Monday that Rudd has told colleagues he will not challenge Gillard again unless key cabinet ministers support the move after he failed in a bid to unseat her in 2012.

The unmarried Gillard has often been the subject of jibes about her gender, clothing and private life and she won global acclaim last year for comments on misogyny, claiming she was sick and tired of dealing with alleged sexism from Abbott and the opposition.****
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: bigdog on June 18, 2013, 04:55:09 AM
I've already seen "Clinton/Warren '16" bumper stickers.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 18, 2013, 05:46:54 AM
 :-o :-o :-o

Quite the pair of forked tongues!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 23, 2013, 03:40:32 PM
I must confess that there is quite a lot I like about Mike Huckabee and the way he handles himself on his talk show on FOX.

I'm sensing Marco Rubio to be too young.

Rand Paul seems to be maturing and has my attention, but may still be too much the bomb thrower and too unelectable.

Ted Cruz has my attention.  High IQ and a precise mind from his superb legal background enable him to make his case without glitches in logic and consistency.  Unfortunately there does not seem to be any executive experience, and a lot of his life was in the law which can generate a very incomplete sense of how the world works.




Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on June 23, 2013, 03:55:40 PM
I really like Cruz.
Title: Politico: What if Hillary did not run?
Post by: DougMacG on July 02, 2013, 11:17:44 AM
In almost hysteria, a politco journalist asks, what if Hillary did not run?  This is a rare admission on the left that the Dem bench is empty.

“We would be at sea in a lifeboat with no food, no water, and no land in sight,” said one veteran Democratic operative who has worked on presidential campaigns, and who, like most people interviewed for this story, asked for anonymity to speak candidly about the former first lady. “There is no Plan B.”
...
"Such assessments wouldn’t sit well with Democrats who are looking at 2016 as the understudies to Clinton – Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, Vice President Joe Biden, to name a few."

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/hillary-clinton-2016-democrats-93637.html#ixzz2XueYaaWZ

I already said Hillary will lose to Hickenlooper.
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2419.msg72880#msg72880

Speaking of yellow state governors, how come Andrew Cuomo isn't making the lib journalist short lists?






Title: Chris Christie
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 25, 2013, 10:20:18 PM
http://reason.com/blog/2013/07/25/chris-christie-attacks-this-strain-of-li
Title: Paul v. Christie
Post by: bigdog on August 01, 2013, 04:21:25 AM
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/314911-paul-cries-uncle-offers-christie-beer

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2013, 06:26:53 AM
Psychologically this is very interesting.
Title: McCain: Rand or Hillary is a "tough choice"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2013, 07:48:38 AM
second post

http://www.westernjournalism.com/john-mccain-on-hillary-clinton-or-rand-paul-tough-choice/

 :roll: :roll: :roll:
Title: Re: Paul v. Christie
Post by: DougMacG on August 01, 2013, 08:59:36 PM
http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/314911-paul-cries-uncle-offers-christie-beer

Beer summit.  :-)    Further commentary: 

DENNIS MILLER: "Rand Paul and Chris Christie, I hate to see Fat Man and Little Boy quibble like this. I mean, as Roger Ailes says, you can not shoot inside the tent. And when the 400 pound guy is telling you you bring home too much bacon, you know it's gone absolutely mad. And yeah, if they're going to keep shooting inside the tent like this, you ought to just get the fur-like pantsuit ready for Hillary, because Big Mama is going to be in that inaugural parade, and Huma Abedin is going to be the next chief of staff. And ironically, chief of staff is the name her old man is using on the internet this week."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/08/01/dennis_miller_on_the_feud_between_rand_paul_and_chris_christie.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 12, 2013, 12:21:19 PM
AMES, Iowa—Iowans this past weekend had their pick of corn dogs, pork chops, Rick Santorum or Ted Cruz.

The first two offerings were popular delicacies at the state fair. The others are Republicans already jockeying over what is expected to be a wide-open 2016 presidential race, barely nine months after the latest one concluded and more than two years before any party primaries would start.
Iowa Early Birds

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Associated Press

First-year U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), making his second trip to Iowa this summer, addressed a forum of evangelicals in Ames, Iowa, Saturday.

Mr. Cruz, a first-year U.S. senator from Texas, on Saturday made his second trip to Iowa this summer. He and Mr. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, addressed a forum of Iowa evangelicals here. They were joined by real-estate developer turned reality-television star Donald Trump. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, a fellow Republican, was in Des Moines a week earlier to attend an event organized by a prominent GOP donor in the state.

Democrats looking to 2016 aren't advertising their intent as openly because President Barack Obama has more than three years left in his term, and because prospective candidates are waiting for a decision from the putative front-runner, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who hasn't made her intentions known. That said, Vice President Joe Biden caused a stir late Sunday when a representative confirmed he will speak next month at Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry, a traditional platform for White House hopefuls.

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Associated Press

Former Sen. Rick Santorum addressing a forum of evangelicals over the weekend in Ames, Iowa.

Meanwhile, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who had made overtures to the Iowa delegation during last year's Democratic National Convention, will be headlining a fundraiser for the North Iowa Democrats later this week, making her the first potential Democratic candidate to visit the state this year. Ms. Klobuchar has played down her interest in the race but hasn't dismissed the prospect of a bid entirely.

The 2016 race really is in full swing, as presidential contenders and activists from both parties swarmed into Iowa over the weekend. Patrick O'Connor has more. Photo: AP.

Iowa, traditionally the first state to hold a presidential contest, often receives early visits from hopefuls, but even some veteran operatives are surprised by what is under way. Mitt Romney, after losing his bid for the Republican nomination in 2008, didn't return to Iowa until March 2010, roughly a year before declaring his intent to be the GOP's 2012 nominee. Likewise, Mr. Obama's first major Iowa appearance didn't come until September 2006 at the Harkin steak fry, several months before he officially announced his presidential campaign.

Both parties will have open nominating races in 2016 that could determine their overall direction. The emerging GOP field is set for a spirited debate over core issues such as national security and social policy. The Democratic race, meanwhile, could become an implicit test of whether Mrs. Clinton can reclaim the party from a younger generation.

"We always get candidates who come out early to dip their toe in the water, but it's nothing like the intensity this time around," said Chuck Laudner, a prominent Iowa conservative who shuttled Mr. Santorum around the state ahead of last year's caucuses. "The conversation about 2016 has already started."

For the candidates, these early courtship rituals aren't meant to lock in support but rather to signal interest in the race and start talks with the activists and officials whose support represents the scaffolding on which presidential campaigns are built. Scott Brennan, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, said potential candidates don't need to be in the state now, given the broader party dynamics at play. But "people will start coming," he said. Mr. Biden accepted the invitation to speak at the Harkin event after he was unable to attend last year, the Biden representative said.

While Mrs. Clinton keeps Democrats waiting, Republicans can barely conceal their eagerness to run. The prospect of a crowded field has some potential candidates already working to carve out an identifiable network of supporters.

"We're talking to folks," said Mr. Santorum at the end of a three-day swing through the state, more than a year after his unsuccessful bid in the GOP nomination battle eventually won by Mitt Romney. "If you're going to have a decision to make, you've got to do some things in preparation for making that decision, and we're certainly doing those things."

In Iowa, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, another Republican pondering a bid, would inherit a robust network of support built by his dad, former Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, including top officials in the state Republican Party.

"This is all an existing infrastructure," said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the state party who runs the popular website, theiowarepublican.com. "There is really no other place for those people to go."

Other potential candidates have steered clear of Iowa and early primary states. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio headlined a fundraiser for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad shortly after the 2012 election but hasn't been back this year.

Mr. Cruz's appearance Saturday, by contrast, was his second in a matter of weeks. He will be back in October to headline a fundraiser, an aide said, and will head to New Hampshire, the site of another traditional early contest, later this month. During his first trip to Iowa earlier this summer, the Texan addressed an influential group of pastors and met with other activists and operatives in the lobby of the Des Moines Marriott, a standard hotbed of political activity. He was scheduled to meet with a group of top donors at the state fair this past weekend, but travel delays forced him to cancel.

His top competition for applause may have been his father, Rafael Cruz, a pastor who stirred up the audience with tales of coming to the U.S. from Cuba in the wake of that country's Communist revolution.

Asked by reporters about his frequent trips to Iowa, the younger Mr. Cruz joked that he traveled north because "it's hot in Texas right now." Pressed further, he said, "I am traveling the country, working to build a grass-roots army" to help with his goal of cutting funding for Mr. Obama's new health-care law.

Mr. Santorum, who won last year's Iowa caucus and is making his first visit to the state since last year's election, has made no secret of his interest in another White House run. "I'm open to it," the former senator told reporters over the weekend.

Mr. Santorum's Iowa travels carried echoes of his 2012 effort. He again toured the state in Mr. Laudner's Ram Truck and even had lunch at a Pizza Ranch, the local chain where he held countless meet-and-greets during his previous race. In Ames, he sounded a familiar blue-collar theme, prodding Republicans to shower more attention on middle-class workers and not "just celebrate the job creators."

Many Iowans in attendance, which included many activists, seemed unfazed by this early positioning. "That's just part of the game," said Syvilla Hewitt, 85, of Fredericksburg, who supported Ron Paul in 2012.
Title: Accomplisment
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 15, 2013, 07:49:21 AM
How to beat Hillary: Nominate someone who has accomplished things
Published by: Dan Calabrese

Exploding the myth.

If you read this column at all, you're familiar with my core theme concerning Hillary Clinton. Her entire political persona is a fraud, the notion of her as a plausible president of the United States exposed as mythical when you look for actual accomplishments on her record and find that there simply isn't anything there. Hillary's resume appears impressive until you realize a) she didn't achieve anything of note in the positions she held; and b) she only got them in the first place for the purpose of positioning herself to run for president.

Disagree if you like, but I think it should work like this: First you accomplish things in other positions, then you look at what you've done at realize that maybe you could be an effective president too, so you run. In Hillary's case, it was: I want to be president so I will position myself to do this by attaining other positions and then I will toss out my resume and I cannot be denied!

If the Republican Party can see this for what it is, you would think that would not be terribly difficult to run against. All you do is continually hammer home the truth that the image is false and the substance is non-existent. (I'm going to avoid the emperor/clothes metaphor in this case because for all I know you just ate.) From there, it shouldn't be hard to add in the history of dishonesty and self-serving tripe, but it really starts with the fact that this is a woman who has never done anything that would recommend her as a candidate for president of the United States.

But if the GOP wants to take that tact, and it should, there's potentially a very big problem: You can't attack Hillary for never having achieved anything if you nominate someone about whom you can say much the same.

There is more than one faction within the Republican Party that seeks nominees solely on the basis of ideological expression, which is to say, I agree with what that person "stands for" so that's who I support. Senator X supports spending cuts, tax cuts and border security, so I support Senator X. It may be solely based on things Senator X has said, in spite of the fact that Senator X has never done anything to make any of this happen. If you nominate someone like that because you're satisfied he/she is a "true conservative" and that's all that matters to you, you just made it a lot more difficult to stand there and say to Hillary, "I've accomplished A, B, C and D for the people in my career in public service, and here are the tangible benefits of these achievements. What have you ever done?"

And that's a problem, because that is exactly how you beat Hillary. You have to attack her weakness, and her weakness is that her entire career has been about resume-building for the purpose of running for president, and not about accomplishing anything for the public.

If you were to nominate, say, former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (and I could name any number of current or former Republican governors, but Daniels is the example I randomly chose), he could tout the successful implementation of tax and budget policies, as well as things like the passage of a right-to-work law, and demonstrate clearly how much Indiana residents have benefited. You could do the same with Scott Walker in Wisconsin or Bobby Jindal in Louisiana. You could do it with Rick Perry in Texas if people didn't get so worked up about a momentary brain freeze he had in a debate.

(That raises another issue, by the way: When we make Perry's brain freeze, or Jindal's poorly delivered State of the Union response, more important than what they've accomplished in office, we play right into the hands of people who create successful candidates via mythical images, because they elevate political performance art above real achievement, and that is the very thing that has created the Hillary myth.)

By the way, in a half-term as a Alaska governor, Sarah Palin could tout far more achievement than Hillary has ever had.

Nominating a truly accomplished public servant, and setting up the campaign as My Achievements vs. Your Myth, would not only resonate with the public, but given what we know about Hillary, it would probably inspire a series of laughable claims on her part - claims that could easily be disproven and thus do even more to shatter the myth.
This is the best way to run against her because it attacks her greatest weakness. But it can only work if the Republican nominee is a person of real achievement, not just someone who says the things you like but has never done any of them.

A new edition of Dan's book "Powers and Principalities" is now available in hard copy and e-book editions. Follow all of Dan's work, including his series of Christian spiritual warfare novels, by liking his page on Facebook.
Title: Christie makes his case, I am unpersuaded
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 16, 2013, 06:38:24 AM
Christie Lays Out His Plan for GOP Revival
Sounding Like a 2016 Candidate, New Jersey Governor Advocates a Pragmatic Form of Conservatism

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BOSTON—Gov. Chris Christie, building on the impression that he is giving a serious look at a run for the White House, used a speech to leaders of the Republican Party on Thursday to argue that his electoral success in New Jersey offers the GOP a model for how to win support from women, minority and blue-state voters.

Mr. Christie told the Republican National Committee, in a private address punctuated often by laughter and applause, that GOP candidates should hew to conservative economic themes and the promise of pragmatic governance. That argument comes as the party is debating how central a role its opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage should be within the party.

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Associated Press

Gov. Chris Christie told a GOP gathering that his New Jersey success is a model for the party's future. An attendee paraphrased him: 'I'm going to run in 2016, and I've demonstrated a winning formula. And if you want to win and don't care about ideology, I'm your candidate.'

The one-term governor, who is up for re-election this year, pointed to polls and some recent endorsements to show he is winning support among women and certain Latino and African-American groups, all constituencies that have tilted heavily toward Democrats in national elections.

"You don't have to sacrifice your base voters to win Latino votes," he said, according to a recording of the closed-door speech reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. "You don't have to sacrifice your base voters to win a share of the African-American vote."

He contrasted his long-running feuds with the state's public-sector unions with his friendliness toward the private-sector unions, noting that he had won the endorsement of 24 building-trade unions.

"We have an opportunity as a party to drive a wedge in the union movement," he said. "And the laboratory where that is happening right now is in my state."

At the same time, the governor made subtle jabs at some in his party, including Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who told the RNC last year that the GOP had to "stop being the party of stupid."
video 
Christie in 2016: Will He or Won't He?
3:54

Gov. Chris Christie used a speech to leaders of the Republican Party on Thursday to argue that his electoral success in New Jersey offers the GOP a model for how to win support from women, minority and blue-state voters. Neil King has more. Photo: Getty Images.

"I am not going to be one of those people who are going to call our party stupid," Mr. Christie said. "I'm not going to be one of those people who are navel gazing. It's nine months now since the national election. Time to get over it."

Last month Mr. Christie also poked at Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and other libertarian Republicans who have criticized the expanding scope of the federal surveillance programs. In his July remarks, he dismissed the criticism as both "dangerous" and part of an "esoteric, intellectual" debate within the party.

Speaking in Boston, where the GOP's national brass have gathered for their summer meeting, Mr. Christie told the party that it had to eschew needless debates and do all it could to win elections.

"I think we have some folks who think we have to be college professors," he said. "For our ideas to win we have to govern. And if we don't win we don't govern."

"I am going to do anything I need to do to win," he said, exhibiting impatience with debates within the party over foreign policy, social issues and legislative tactics.

Some in the audience took exception to the view that the RNC shouldn't promote policies or take stances on issues. Steve Scheffler, a social conservative committeeman from Iowa, said it remains "an important role for the RNC to put national congressmen and politicians on notice as to what the grass-roots is thinking."

Mr. Christie has held leads of 30 points or more in multiple surveys over his Democratic challenger in this year's election, state Sen. Barbara Buono.

The governor was essentially tied with Ms. Buono among Hispanic voters in a Quinnipiac University poll this month, after losing Hispanics by a 2-to-1 margin in 2009, when he was first elected. Ms. Buono held a large lead among black voters in the survey, though Mr. Christie appeared to have made substantial gains among those voters since 2009.

Mr. Christie, who took no questions either from the audience or from a group of reporters outside the ballroom, made no direct reference to whether he is looking to run for president in 2016. But several in attendance felt he left no doubt on that score.

Steve Munisteri, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, boiled Mr. Christie's remarks down to this: "I took all that to mean, 'I'm going to run in 2016, and I've demonstrated a winning formula. And if you want to win and don't care about ideology, I'm your candidate.' "

Linda Ackerman, the GOP committeewoman from California, said Mr. Christie's "speech today was much more impressive" than the one he delivered last August at the party's convention in Tampa.

"There is nothing wrong with our party," Mr. Christie said. To a loud outburst of applause he urged the RNC to focus entirely on the mechanics of "electing Republicans."

"We are not a debating society," he told the crowd of several hundred in the ballroom. "We are a political operation that wants to win."
Title: Re: Christie makes his case, I am unpersuaded
Post by: DougMacG on August 16, 2013, 08:21:25 AM
I am also unpersuaded by Christie but he certainly is one of the ones to watch.  A case I made last time around was to look for a two term Governor - of a purple state.  That didn't lead us to any great candidates but it was a former Governor who won the nomination.  Most of the other  candidates of current interest, who are perhaps better on the issues, lack executive experience, as did our current President.

In his feud with Rand Paul, Christie was perhaps right on the policy of security first but tone deaf I thought on the liberty and privacy concerns involved.

In that feud and with his hurricane courtship with Obama, there is an ego involved, putting himself first.  That can be good and bad in politics.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, compare and contrast
Post by: DougMacG on September 05, 2013, 09:06:45 AM
Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, compare and contrast
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/09/marco-rubio-and-rand-paul-compare-and-contrast.php

(This is from a conservative, Paul Mirengoff on Powerline, who ripped Sen. Rubio endlessly on immigration.)

Marco Rubio and Rand Paul both questioned John Kerry and his sidekicks during yesterday’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on Syria. Rubio was very skeptical about the president’s idea of attacking the Assad regime; Paul was adamantly opposed to it.

They were coming from different places. Rubio said he favors taking out the Assad regime, though he acknowledged the risks of doing so. Paul wants a “hands off of Syria.”

But the contrast I want to discuss is the contrast in presentation.

Rubio was organized and analytical — more so, probably, than any other Committee member — laying out our three broad options for proceeding. Paul was all over the place, asking one rhetorical question after another in a rapid fire manner.

Moreover, Rubio had a clear position on each of the options he laid out. Paul had no answers to his own questions. He claimed the answers are “unknowable.”

His was argument by throwing up hands — since there’s so much uncertainty, we shouldn’t act. The obvious fallacy is that we also don’t “know” what the result of inaction will be.

If Rubio and Paul seek the presidency, they will be debating each other in about a year. I won’t vote for either, but my money in the debates will be on Rubio.

Paul’s act will appeal to his father’s base, and probably a bit further than that. But unless Paul becomes more of a match for Rubio when it comes to organization and analysis, the Republican rank-and-file probably will be considerably more impressed by the Senator from Florida than by his rival from Kentucky.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 05, 2013, 10:07:53 AM
I too find substantial elements of intellectual sloppiness in Paul e.g. his claim that the Constitution requires approval for what Baraq proposes here-- what about the War Powers Act?  I'm not saying that I have the answer here, I don't, but I think he should address the point.

Rubio continues to impress me as too young, and susceptible to getting rolled (e.g. immigration "reform"), but I am glad to read of your account of his preparation and comportment here.

I would also draw attention to Cruz.  Amongst the three of them, he has impressed me the most with expressing good guiding principles without making sloppy, inadvertent, or over the top comments that can later come back to bite him as sound bit.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 07, 2013, 10:33:32 AM
I too find substantial elements of intellectual sloppiness in Paul e.g. his claim that the Constitution requires approval for what Baraq proposes here-- what about the War Powers Act?  I'm not saying that I have the answer here, I don't, but I think he should address the point.

Rubio continues to impress me as too young, and susceptible to getting rolled (e.g. immigration "reform"), but I am glad to read of your account of his preparation and comportment here.

I would also draw attention to Cruz.  Amongst the three of them, he has impressed me the most with expressing good guiding principles without making sloppy, inadvertent, or over the top comments that can later come back to bite him as sound bit.

Agree on all points. 

Rand Paul will be the anti-interventionist of the group and that view will likely have quite a bit of appeal coming into 2016 depending on events and what stumbles the others make.

It is an open question as to whether Rubio can recover with conservatives from his immigration reform debacle.  I think he can, and has the most charisma, best communication skills and most crossover appeal of those likely to run.

Ted Cruz would arguably be the President of the group, if elected.  Principled, fearless, and as you say, not prone to sloppy, over the top comments.

Add Paul Ryan to the group and we have an impressive amount of talent with no executive experience.  Chris Christie has that (and Jindal, and perhaps others).

George Will ripped Chris Christie for being Chris Christie today:

He should heed another politician who had a flair for fighting. “Being powerful,” Margaret Thatcher said, “is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren’t.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-clinton-christie-promise-2016-follies/2013/09/06/d440b3d6-1660-11e3-804b-d3a1a3a18f2c_story.html
Title: Rep. King to run
Post by: ccp on September 08, 2013, 10:20:05 AM
Rep. Peter King Announces 2016 Run For President

King Is First Republican To Toss Hat In Ring

September 8, 2013 8:26 AM




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Rep. Peter King

Rep. Peter King. (file/credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)



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2016 election, Congress, Long Island, New Hampshire, presidential run, Rep. Peter King   
 
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – Long Island Congressman Peter King has thrown his hat in the 2016 presidential ring.

King is the first Republican to announce he’s running.



The congressman currently serving his 11th term announced his candidacy on a New Hampshire radio station on Friday during a visit to the state.

New Hampshire historically holds the first primary in the nation.
Title: Re: Rep. King to run
Post by: DougMacG on September 08, 2013, 10:39:31 AM
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – Long Island Congressman Peter King has thrown his hat in the 2016 presidential ring.

A good addition to the field.  Rep. Peter King was Chairman of the United States House Committee on Homeland Security, has served 20 years in the House.  If you are Republican from NY, the next step up for elected office is President.

(On first read, I had him confused with Rep Steve King, a leader in anti-amnesty, who declined to run for the open Senate seat in Iowa.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Mike Pence
Post by: DougMacG on September 12, 2013, 05:43:39 AM
http://dailycaller.com/2013/09/10/pence-and-the-revolution-five-reasons-he-might-be-the-2016-dark-horse-to-watch/2/

Five reasons he might be the 2016 dark horse to watch

Current Governor of Indiana, a widely respected conservative with executive and congressional experience.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 12, 2013, 07:14:29 AM
Thanks Doug.  I'll pay more attention to Pence.

Rep King was on Hannity yesterday and they had a knock down ground pummel fight over the strategy of a military response to Assad's use of chemical weapons.  I don't necessarily agree with King's conclusion that in the long run we should act militarily but I love his speaking style.  He is a gentleman and speaks coherently convincingly and projects commitment to the interests of Americans and not just partisan spin.

Time will tell if he has what it takes.  I am not sure about his domestic economic philosophy as much since we usually hear him speak of security issues.

I was not happy with the way he railed against the Republican house when they balked at the NJ - NY hurricane Sandy bill shoved to the Feds - similar to Christie.   OTOH one can certainly argue it is his job to fight tooth and nail for his constituency.
Title: Karl Marx for President
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 13, 2013, 10:16:18 AM
http://www.westernjournalism.com/obama-supporters-sign-karl-marx-president-petition/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on October 07, 2013, 09:19:51 AM
The results of the reelection attempts of Governors John Hickenlooper, Democrat in Colorado and Scott Walker, Republican in Wisconsin, will play a role in determining what cast of characters will be competing for high office in 2016.  Chris Christie will presumably be a second term Governor in a politically divided state by then as well.

This piece discusses Scott Walker who perhaps fills a space in between Chris Christie and the names that come up out of congress.   http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/10/scott-walker-blames-washington-and-defies-it.php
Title: The case for Ben Carson
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 10, 2013, 04:21:00 PM
Dear Friend,
You and I must win the White House in 2016! That’s why I implore you to sign the petition urging Dr. Ben Carson to run for President of the United States.
Please sign right now. Why? Here are 3 reasons...
•   Ben Carson will win. In fact, when I explain, you’ll understand why he is the only candidate who is sure to win.
•   Ben Carson will heal America. As President he will heal America and unite us as one people working together to achieve the American dream.
•   Ben Carson is a Tea Party conservative. He has supported the Tea Party since it began and he has practical, commonsense solutions to the problems that plague our land.

Why is Ben Carson Sure to Win?

In 2011, internal polls showed that Republican Presidential candidate Herman Cain was backed by 40% of black Americans.
Mr. Cain was well liked, but Dr. Carson is a national hero in the black community.

If Herman Cain could poll 40% of the black vote running against a black candidate, just imagine what percent of the black vote Dr. Ben Carson would receive running against Hillary Clinton or any other far left white Democrat!

I believe Ben Carson will win more than 50% of the African American vote.

But, if Ben Carson receives just 20% of the black vote, no Democrat candidate for President, black or white, can win the White House.

That’s right, just 20% of the black vote!

And, the Democrats know it. They know that their grasp on power is hanging by the thread of the lie that all conservatives are racists.

The election of Ben Carson would create a sea change in American politics. It would permanently dismantle the Democrat coalition that gives them victory year after year.
The end of far left Democrat Party dominance...

In a head-to-head contest with Hillary Clinton, there’s just no way that Ben Carson will receive less than 40% of the black vote.

But, the Republican establishment is uncomfortable with Dr. Carson because he is a conservative, Tea Party Republican. They want another establishment Republican as their presidential nominee.

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The nomination of Dr. Ben Carson is our sure path to victory in 2016.

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•   National Debt. Cut government spending by 10% each year, across the board, until the budget is balanced!
•   Obamacare. Repeal it! Replace it with a free market health savings account.
•   Taxes. Make it flat and make sure that everyone has skin in the game. Everyone pays.
•   Abortion. End it now! It is barbaric.
•   Illegal Immigration. Listen to the American people, secure our borders. End it.
•   Redistribution of Income. Stop it. It’s un-American.
•   Welfare. It not only encourages self-destructive behavior, it is a trap. Replace it with a truly compassionate, free market approach that enables those on welfare to gain prosperity through employment and entrepreneurship.
•   Judges. Appoint judges committed to the US Constitution.
•   Political Correctness. It is dangerous. It hinders progress and divides our nation.
•   Right to Keep & Bear Arms. It’s a vital part of the our Bill of Rights! End of story!
•   Democrats and Republicans. Both have been part of the problem. America first!

The most important reason to support Ben Carson...

Dr. Carson is the only man who can heal and unite Americans - black, white, Hispanic; men, women; employer, employee; young, old.
Only once before, during the Civil War, were Americans as divided as they are today.

Dr. Carson will end the rancor, the distrust, the divide that has been crassly exploited by the leftists who control the Democratic Party. He will unite us as one great nation.
And, Ben Carson is a proud and unrepentant American!

"...there is no country I’d rather be a citizen of and call home than America. Where else but in this land of opportunity are people given so much freedom to pursue their dreams, with the potential to bring out the best in everyone?”

Ben Carson is a winning candidate! But, will he run?

Almost certainly! He has made it clear he will run if asked, if drafted...

This is what he said to a New York Times reporter when asked if he was considering a run for President...

“Certainly if a year and a half went by and there was no one on the scene and people are still clamoring, I would have to take that into consideration. I would never turn my back on my fellow citizens.”

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Let Dr. Carson know that you want him to run for President in 2016.

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Please sign your petition today!

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Early dollars are critical to success!

Your early support of $35 or $50 or $100 or even $1,000 or more is worth multiples of that amount next year.

Don’t forget, the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee is a Super PAC and that means we can accept contributions of any amount from individuals, partnerships and corporations.

Establishment Republicans are already running hard and they have deep financial pockets. They are nice people, but they are not conservatives like you and me. Their nominee lost the last two elections for President and they are sure to lose again.

And, of course, Hillary Clinton is trying her best to match Barack Obama’s billion dollar campaign.

But, you and I can nominate and elect a man the Founders would be proud of, a man dedicated to the US Constitution and to fiscal responsibility. You and I must put our efforts and our dollars behind Ben Carson.

Won’t you please strike a blow for victory in 2016, and for freedom, by donating to the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee today?
Sincerely,
 
John Philip Sousa, IV
National Chairman
P.S. Don’t just sit back and let the Republican Establishment pick the next GOP nominee! You can change the future. My great-grandfather was proud to be an American and I can guarantee you that he would be among the first to put his name on the petition that clamors for Ben Carson to run for President. That’s why I hope and pray that you will join this crusade to save America by signing the Run, Ben, Run! petition, and by donating at least $35 to this crucial draft effort. God bless you and God bless America!


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Washington Post. Nov 2013, top 10 Republicans
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2013, 11:30:42 AM
Not great analysis, but not much worse than anyone else's picks.  Tomorrow is Chris Christie Day.  Marco Rubio's stock is currently down because of the immigration fiasco.  (I would not rule him out!) The attacks on Ted Cruz perhaps help Rand Paul to look more electable.  I don't see Scott Walker as Presidential but if he wins tomorrow it will be a third win in a deeply divided, heartland state.  Santorum did not make their list. 

(My list today would keep Pence and Walker as the dark horses, and Christie, Cruz, Rubio and Rand Paul as the contenders.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ranking-the-republican-presidential-contenders-for-2016/2013/11/03/eea61722-449e-11e3-bf0c-cebf37c6f484_story.html

Below we rank the 10 candidates most likely to wind up as the Republican presidential nominee in three years’ time. Enjoy!

10. Mike Pence: Looking for a dark horse? Try the Indiana governor. He’s a gifted communicator, liked by social and fiscal conservatives and not part of the Washington establishment.

9. Paul Ryan: There appears to be a significant dialing back of Ryan’s interest in a presidential run from even a few months ago. And, as several Republicans noted to us, the Wisconsin congressman’s really not doing much to build the beginnings of a presidential bid.

8. John Kasich: The Ohio governor needs to win reelection before he or his people will seriously entertain the possibility of another run for president. But let’s say Kasich wins. He’s a two-term governor of a Midwestern swing state who spent time in Washington — a long time ago — in Congress as the head of the House Budget Committee. That’s not a bad starting place.

7. Bobby Jindal: Several people we talked to suggested that we drop the Louisiana governor below Kasich in our rankings. But Jindal has the next year to continue to organize a presidential bid, while Kasich needs to keep both eyes on his reelection. That’s enough for us to give Jindal a slight edge. Jindal is quite clearly trying to position himself as the “ideas guy” in the field, also known as the Newton Leroy Gingrich Memorial Slot.

6. Marco Rubio: The problem for the senator from Florida is that his work to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill through the Senate has damaged him within the party base — and, because the legislation remains mired in the House, he has nothing to show for it. Sign of the times? A poll by WMUR in New Hampshire showed Rubio in sixth place in the state’s primary field, tied with Rick Santorum. Oomph.

5. Jeb Bush: The holding pattern continues. If he runs, Bush may replace Christie as the Clinton figure in the field. But no one knows what he is going to do — and he isn’t talking much about it.

4. Scott Walker: The Wisconsin governor is in a similar position to Kasich. He has a very strong case to make for 2016 if he can get through his 2014 reelection race. Walker has proved himself — in his 2010 election and his 2011 recall election — to be a very able politician, so we have our doubts about Democratic claims that he may be vulnerable next November.

3. Ted Cruz: If the Iowa caucuses were held today, the senator from Texas would win. But they won’t be held today. Therein lies the fundamental question at the heart of Cruz’s increasingly likely candidacy: Can he sustain the energy and passion that the tea party base of the GOP has for him over the next two-plus years?

2. Rand Paul: Cruz’s ascension as the face of the tea party movement may actually make it more likely that the senator from Kentucky winds up as the nominee. If Cruz is seen as the most ideological of the top tier of candidates, Paul can cast himself as the most electable hybrid conservative — someone whom conservatives can feel good about and who can expand the GOP’s shrinking electoral map.

1. Chris Christie: No one has had a better 2013. The only question for Christie is whether the power center of the party has moved so far toward the tea party that — with his focus on pragmatism over principle and winning over all else — he simply cannot be its choice.
Title: Cruz-Carson
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 04, 2013, 08:44:45 PM
http://www.conservativeactionalerts.com/2013/11/cruz-and-carson-in-2016/
Title: Hillary's numbers dropping
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2013, 08:22:23 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/10/31/hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-keep-dropping/?wpsrc=AG0002957
Title: Three’s a crowd
Post by: bigdog on November 18, 2013, 04:51:41 AM
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/190510-threes-a-crowd

From the article:

... the Clintons have their own agenda and it is not identical to Obama’s.
Title: Colorado and Wisconsin Governor races will affect 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 18, 2013, 08:03:53 AM
The elections of 2014 will affect the elections of 2016, IMHO.

John Hickenlooper's (D-Colo) job rating plunged below 50 percent
Colorado a microcosm of the country
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/11/15/colorado_a_microcosm_for_american_politics_120669.html

Scott Walker (R-Wisc), polls show him in a tougher race this time around
"the nominee needs to be a Governor or former Governor".
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/190497-scott-walker-2016-gop-nominee-should-be-a-governor
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 20, 2013, 07:29:54 PM
I have a dream.

The mainstream Republicans - the half asses - actually get behind someone like, well, Cruz.  And instead of tearing him down they start pile driving timbers as groundwork under him behind the scenes.

Work with him; groom him; he could be our chosen spokesperson. 

But alas I turn on the tube and I see Rove.  I hear Jeb Bush.  I hear the ridiculous nonsense about Christie (who could be more selfish then Clinton).  (At least Clinton was more or less a dedicated Democrat - what has Christie done for Republicans?).  These guys are not the answer.   What great ideas has Bush ever come up with?   Christie is not a big idea guy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 20, 2013, 08:18:04 PM
Sen. Rand Paul was on the hot seat on the Bret Baier Special Report a day or two ago.  Still struggling with foreign affairs a bit (the balance between libertarian idealism and reality sort of stuff e.g. wrt Iran) but overall not bad.  He does rather well with health care, speaking as he can as having been a practicing physician, and comes across young and hip better than Cruz.  Don't get me wrong, I like Cruz a lot, but I'm not sensing him doing well against Hillary.  RP is still not quite ready for a presidential campaign IMHO, but he should not be written off yet.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 21, 2013, 10:02:03 AM
I agree with ccp on Christie and with Crafty on Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.
 
There are things I don't like about Christie but he does comes across as ready to run, win and govern.  As always, don't be fooled by the kid glove, media treatment that the more moderate candidates always get in the early going: McCain, Romney, and Christie now.  The media won't be helping him in the general election.

I prefer executive experience on the resume but still like Marco Rubio for many reasons.  I believe he can overcome his battle wounds with conservatives from the immigration debate and turn that into a political asset in 2016.  He will be older and wiser in 2016 than he was in 2010 and 2012.  In terms of charisma or whatever we choose to call it, he did win a swing state by a million votes with a Reagan-like message. 

From my point of view the question is, who is the most conservative and the most articulate in advancing economic freedom while coming across as positive, non-threatening, even inspiring to moderates and swing voters. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 21, 2013, 10:10:32 AM
Rubio seems too young and too easy to get rolled to me.  I doubt his ability to handle himself in the clinches, not agile enough in the thrust and parry of hardball politics.
Title: from the history thread with '16 comparison
Post by: ccp on November 22, 2013, 08:51:51 AM
BTW,

Dick's radio show is excellent.   I am not sure if it is national.  He pissed me off with his dead wrong prediction for the '12 election.  Yet he is extraordinarily insightful and does have very interesting talking points which I do not see or hear anywhere else.   I think we should continue to listen to him.

Interesting history lesson on how Truman got elected.  The democrats today are going to try the EXACT same strategy.   Balkanize the country pull on female heart strings, play up the rights issue for Latinos Gays and all the rest.  Then pass as many bills in the Senate.  Maybe as Harkin calls change the rules to all legislation in the Senate, then sit back and call Congress the "do nothing Congress" as the economy flounders.   All the while The grafter Clinton crew will be all over the media map drumming into our heads like the mediocre pop songs today over and over again how she is for getting things done and working with the other side.   Bill will be out there reminding us how the economy was better (thanks to a boom in tech - all which crashed just months after he left) and how he crossed the aisle to fix Medicaid (he was kicking and screaming and did so only when the polls instructed him to).

Perhaps the Truman '48 election is the going to be redacted in '16.   I am also going to post this on the 2016 thread where I think the analogy is quite strong.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 22, 2013, 09:00:25 AM
In response, to Doug and Crafty on Cruz and Rubio and Cristie...

I actually like Jindal though we noted how poor his performance of the State of the Union rebuttal a couple of years ago was .

But he might get better.   If Cruz is as smart as reported he could improve.   As for Paul he lacks something.  He is just to clinical for me.  He seems like a one trick guy.  The debt the debt the debt.  True as to its paramount importance but He can't seem to appeal beyond that.   Yes he went to a Black College and was given a little credit for trying.  His presentation to them was less than what even I could have done.

Rubio is very good.  But he has to figure out how to deal with ruthless Democrats.  Like obnoxious Schumer who stated he was "fond" of Rubio in a subtle condescending put down.  (like he was speaking of his grandson).

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 22, 2013, 09:47:15 AM
"I actually like Jindal though we noted how poor his performance of the State of the Union rebuttal a couple of years ago was.  But he might get better."

The criticism there was only about delivery.  His handlers tell him he talks too fast, so he slowed it down too much.  He IS better than that and has executive experience as a two term governor.  Is a little bit underwater right now with his approval rating but that is coming up as good results start to come from his policies.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Executive Experience?
Post by: DougMacG on November 29, 2013, 08:27:09 AM
A successful, two term or more, conservative Governor of a swing state would be a nice qualification for a Republican nominee.  One might argue that Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio is almost a Reagan, but lacks the 8 years experience actually governing our largest state, a crucial distinction.  Obama had no executive experience and look what happened.  But on the other hand, now he has nearly 5 years real experience as President, Commander in Chief, Leader of the free world, and is still a disaster.  Perhaps aimed at current front runner Chris Christie, Marc Levin points out that Lincoln had no executive experience and argues we should take a larger measure of the person:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/11/27/mark_levin_republican_nominee_in_2016_doesnt_need_executive_experience.html

"Lincoln is considered our greatest, if not our second greatest president by most. He was never a governor. He was never a senator. He was an extraordinary man, and he was a public man, and people knew much about him. The Lincoln-Douglas debates -- and those weren't the only debates! He gave some magnificent speeches too. But again, all that aside. My point is to categorize and say we have to have a person who's served as governor because they make executive decisions. Okay great.

And that'll be the strength of that candidate, should that candidate run. But thats not the test. The test is to get the right person. And the right person will make mostly the right decisions. Take a measure of the person. So if you have somebody who has been a governor, or just a garden variety Republican. Whether they're a big-government Republican or a RINO. I don't care if they've been a governor or not. I'm not interested. They have to come to the office or seek the office with a certain set of a principles and value that we share. Someone who is intelligent, confident, and articulate and knowledgeable, and has a capacity for the office. They've been governor, great. If they haven't, fine."
Title: ‘Bizarre behavior’ could be risk to Christie White House run
Post by: bigdog on December 02, 2013, 10:21:50 AM
http://nypost.com/2013/12/02/christies-bizarre-behavior-could-undermine-presidential-chances/

From the article:

Gov. Chris Christie’s “bizarre behavior’’ in refusing to say he’ll support a possible GOP challenger to Gov. Cuomo next year could derail his chances to become president, state and national GOP insiders have told The Post.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Scott Walker continued
Post by: DougMacG on December 02, 2013, 11:43:10 AM
I haven't seen him speak very much.  I assume he has governing competence but not much charisma.  This is his 'Face the Nation' appearance yesterday.  I think he is quite steady, decisive and articulate.  Definitely a serious candidate to contend with if he wins reelection and enters the Presidential race, IMHO.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/12/01/scott_walker_republicans_need_an_optimistic_message_for_2014.html

Coincidentally, George Will on Scott Walker:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-scott-walker-wisconsins-action-governor/2013/11/29/6057663c-577d-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html

Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s action governor

By George F. Will, Published: November 29 2013
MILWAUKEE

In 2011, thousands of government employees and others, enraged by Gov. Scott Walker’s determination to break the ruinously expensive and paralyzing grip that government workers’ unions had on Wisconsin, took over the capitol building in Madison. With chanting, screaming and singing supplemented by bullhorns, bagpipes and drum circles, their cacophony shook the building that the squalor of their occupation made malodorous. They spat on Republican legislators and urinated on Walker’s office door. They shouted, “This is what democracy looks like!”

When they and Democratic legislators failed to prevent passage of Act 10, they tried to defeat — with a scurrilous smear campaign that backfired — an elected state Supreme Court justice. They hoped that changing the court’s composition would get Walker’s reforms overturned. When this failed, they tried to capture the state Senate by recalling six Republican senators. When this failed, they tried to recall Walker. On the night that failed — he won with a larger margin than he had received when elected 19 months earlier — he resisted the temptation to proclaim, “This is what democracy looks like!”

Walker recounts these events in “Unintimidated: A Governor’s Story and a Nation’s Challenge” (co-authored by Post columnist Marc Thiessen). Most books by incumbent politicians are not worth the paper they never should have been written on. If, however, enough voters read Walker’s nonfiction thriller, it will make him a — perhaps the — leading candidate for his party’s 2016 presidential nomination.

Act 10 required government workers to contribute 5.8 percent of their salaries to their pensions (hitherto, most paid nothing) and to pay 12.6 percent of their health-care premiums (up from 6 percent but still just half of what the average federal worker pays). Both percentages are well below the private-sector average. By limiting collective bargaining to base wages, Act 10 freed school districts to hire and fire teachers based on merit, and to save many millions of dollars by buying teachers’ health insurance in the competitive market rather than from an entity run by the teachers’ union. Restricting collective bargaining to wages ended the sort of absurd rules for overtime compensation that made a bus driver Madison’s highest paid public employee.

Act 10’s dynamite, however, was the provision ending the state’s compulsory collection of union dues — sometimes as high as $1,400 per year — that fund union contributions to Democrats. Barack Obama and his national labor allies made Wisconsin a battleground because they knew that when Indiana made paying union dues optional, 90 percent of state employees quit paying, and similar measures produced similar results in Washington, Colorado and Utah.

Walker has long experience in the furnace of resistance to the looting of public funds by the public’s employees. He was elected chief executive of heavily Democratic Milwaukee County after his predecessor collaborated with other officials in rewriting pension rules in a way that, if he had been reelected instead of resigning, would have given him a lump-sum payment of $2.3 million and $136,000 a year for life.

To fight the recall — during which opponents disrupted Walker’s appearance at a Special Olympics event and squeezed Super Glue into the locks of a school he was to visit — Walker raised more than $30 million, assembling a nationwide network of conservative donors that could come in handy if he is reelected next year. Having become the first U.S. governor to survive a recall election, he is today serene as America’s first governor to be, in effect, elected twice to a first term. When he seeks a second term, his opponent will probably be a wealthy rival who says her only promise is to not make promises. This is her attempt to cope with an awkward fact: She will either infuriate her party’s liberal base or alarm a majority of voters by promising either to preserve or repeal Act 10.

Walker is politely scathing — a neat trick — of Mitt Romney’s campaign, especially of Romney’s statement that “I’m not concerned about the very poor” because “we have a very ample safety net.” The imperative, Walker says, is to “help them escape the safety net.”

“Outside the Washington beltway,” he says pointedly, “big-government liberals are on the ropes.” No incumbent Republican governor has lost a general election since 2007. Since 2008, the number of Republican governors has increased from 21 to 30, just four short of the party’s all-time high reached in the 1920s. He thinks Republican governors are in tune with the nation. If reelected, he probably will test that theory.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Thomas Sowell on Wisc. Gov. Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2013, 06:50:30 AM
Highly respected conservative historian and economist Thomas Sowell concludes his Christmas book recommendation column today (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/365862/gift-clarity-christmas-book-list-thomas-sowell) with this high praise of Scott Walker:

"With so many people already speculating as to who might be the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker’s new book, Unintimidated, may be especially worth reading. It shows a man of real depth, and with an impressive track record that ought to overshadow the rhetoric of others, especially among the Washington Republicans.  Unlike the Washington Republicans, Governor Walker has been tested and has come through with flying colors. His ending the labor unions’ sacred-cow status in Wisconsin — in spite of union thuggery in the capitol and death threats to himself, his wife, and his children — tells us what kind of man he is."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Christie declines to defend N.J. gun laws
Post by: DougMacG on December 31, 2013, 08:41:10 AM
Christie declines to defend N.J. gun laws
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/chris_christie_declines_to_defend_nj_gun_laws_sparking_criticism.html#incart_river

The court upheld both laws anyway, finding that New Jersey has a "well-established record" of policing firearms and can place strict requirements on people seeking permits to carry concealed handguns.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 31, 2013, 08:48:25 AM
Interesting.

A tangential observation:  some/most of us here disapproved when Obama failed to defend the DOMA.   What say we now with this?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 31, 2013, 01:56:25 PM
Interesting.

A tangential observation:  some/most of us here disapproved when Obama failed to defend the DOMA.   What say we now with this?

Good question.  Our more centrist poster might see hypocrisy.  I say criticize but play under one set of rules, theirs if they won't play under ours.  NJ law was upheld without his support.  DOMA was (partly) struck down without Obama-ites making insincere arguments in its defense.

This is the beginning of positioning for 2016.  The anti-legal-gun-rights argument is not selling.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 14, 2014, 06:04:08 AM
Don't agree with all of this.  Few good points.  OTOH the Dems only have Clinton.  Once she is out of the way the Dems will also have to find new blood for the national scene.



****Who But Christie Can Beat Hillary?

By Myra Adams 3 hours ago The Daily Beast
   
As a Republican hoping that my party will retake the White House in 2016, I watched with intense interest as New Jersey Governor Chris Christie talked and talked and talked his way out of ”Bridgegate.”

The general consensus is that Christie did a decent job bemoaning his circumstances and keeping his cool, considering that the damaging political/ legal issues have only just begun.

But it was Christie’s "I am not a bully" persona that reminded me just how truly weak the entire bench of Republican presidential hopefuls is for 2016.

Sure, before “Bridgegate” and just after Christie’s victory in New Jersey there were a few national polls that showed Christie either tied or slightly leading Hillary Clinton. Indeed, dealing with Bridgegate could even make Christie a stronger candidate. However, national polls mean nothing three years before a general election. (Just ask the 2006-2007 presidential “front runner” Rudy Giuliani how that early status worked out for him.)

The problem for the GOP in 2016 goes so much deeper than whether Christie can overcome his first big crisis. (Sorry, unlike some Republicans I do not count Christie’s embrace of President Obama during the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 as a hurdle that he needs to overcome.)

But what I am referring to is the Herculean task set before Christie of winning the 2016 Republican nomination given that the conservative wing and primary-controlling base voters are ferociously anti-Christie for numerous political and policy reasons, among them Medicaid expansion and gun control just for starters.

Here is a representative comment written by your average right-leaning Republican on RedState, the influential conservative website, in response to this negative piece about Christie’s prospects in 2016:

We don't need another McCain/Romney that's what Christie is in fact, he's further to the left than either of them. If Christie is the nominee then its time for a 3rd party because the base of the party isn't being represented.

Thus, here are the some possible Christie scenarios for 2016:

Christie manages to win the nomination and the GOP civil war officially begins.

Christie’s nomination launches a breakaway third party.

Christie’s nomination is the reason the base stays home.

Therefore, you can add “and Hillary wins” to the end of each sentence.

So if Christie runs and fails to get the nomination or decides against running at all who is left (I mean right) who can defeat Hillary?

The first name that comes to mind is Senator Rand Paul.

He has been working non-stop gaining national stature, dropping hints about running in 2016, but he is only a freshman senator and is also up for reelection in 2016. (Red flag alert: Freshman senator running for president.)

Under Kentucky state law Senator Paul can not run for both the U.S. Senate and president. Therefore, he must make a decision whether to run for president no later than early in 2015 -- in order to give another GOP Senate candidate time to launch a bid. But then, if things don’t work out on the presidential primary trail, Senator Paul –rather Dr. Paul— will be back practicing medicine under Obamacare.

A safer bet would be for Senator Paul to run for reelection, build up his “brand” both in the Senate and across the nation and then wait another four or eight years.

Then there is Ted Cruz of Texas, who won his Senate seat in 2012 and not up for reelection until 2018.

Cruz, although a laughing stock in the mainstream media, is extremely popular among primary base voters. So conceivably he could win the nomination and then the Democrats would likely “Cruz” to a Johnson vs. Goldwater-style landslide. 

We’re not through with Texas yet because the word is Governor Rick Perry is planning on making a serious run for the 2016 nomination (at least more serious than his abysmal 2012 campaign.

Do not underestimate Governor Perry, because he has a record to run on that sings a real song of hope, change, and job creation. You can’t help but admire Perry as he touts his big Texas economic success story. However, my 2016 forecast for Perry is cloudy with a 10% chance of winning.

And what about former Arkansas Governor turned Fox News host, Mike Huckabee? He hinted late in 2013 that he might run again in 2016. But will he be willing to forsake his lucrative gig at Fox News to grind it out on the campaign trail? Probably not, but even talk about running is good for his ratings.

Don’t forget about Wisconsin congressman and former 2012 vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan. He is the one who many in the party believe has the best chance of defeating Hillary. Well, they can keep dreaming because Ryan probably has his eye on a bigger job in the House.

Finally, you can forget about former golden boy, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida running for president in 2016. Rubio too is up for reelection that year and cannot be on the same ballot twice.

So back to my original question, “Who does the GOP really have who can lead the charge against Hillary in 2016?” (Who won’t tear apart the GOP in the process.) The answer did not appear in recent piece by Keith Koffler entitled: The GOP Needs a Conservative in 2016.  Where Koffler makes the case why the GOP needs a conservative in 2016 but neglects to put a name to the need. Unfortunately the word “conservative” cannot appear on the ballot opposite Hillary Clinton.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 14, 2014, 06:45:37 AM
Also worth noting is that, like Obama, both Paul and Cruz utterly lack in executive experience.

Huckabee may be worth keeping an eye on.  His demeanor is soothing and he can sound quite calm and reassuring as he articulates his conservatism.  His gig at FOX has given him a lot of practice at articulating his thoughts on a wide range of issues.  
Title: Slate: 'The Democrat most likely to challenge Hillary', Brian Schweitzer
Post by: DougMacG on January 14, 2014, 08:39:12 AM
It won't be Hillary so we might as well start looking at the other Dems.  I suggested Hickenlooper (Colo) but he will first be bogged down in a reelection contest.  Enter two term Governor of Montana Brian Schweitzer, he turned down the chance to run for an open Senate seat and headed to Iowa.  Move this guy up on the Hillary enemy list.

Two interviews, first a video on Iowa public tv: http://www.iptv.org/iowapress/episode.cfm/4116/video

Second is slate: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/01/brian_schweitzer_interview_the_former_montana_governor_is_the_most_likely.html

I just don’t think his administration [Pres. Obama] has been very good at doing things, about organizing things. It’s not just about the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. As governor I had four years to work with the Bush administration and four years to work with the Obama administration, and they’re just not good at getting things done.

Q: And how did Bill Clinton rank? Do you have any worries about the economic team than ran the place at the end of the ’90s, for example—about them coming back?

Clinton had a very good run. It was eight years of peace and prosperity. But do you recall what the music was, blaring, after they were elected?  Fleetwood Mac, “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow.” So what do we play next time? The Beatles, “Yesterday”? In England, a baby’s born and they know he’ll grow up to be king someday. We’re not England. We’re America.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: bigdog on January 14, 2014, 09:36:04 AM
I am pretty excited about the run to Iowa and NH, for both parties. For real.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 15, 2014, 07:00:28 AM
Crafty,

It seems most people in NJ agree with you.  The believe Christie.  Some people I spoke to think, "he couldn't be that dumb" to have known this.   I guess that is the new defense now.   Unless new information ties him to this he will now come even stronger.   The establishment will point to this as another credential on his resume for the RNC controlled run for 16:

http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/despite-bridgegate-christies-approval-new-jersey-still-59
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, MSNBC Brian Schweitzer (continued)
Post by: DougMacG on January 15, 2014, 09:44:55 PM
Maybe he is only flavor of the week, but the sudden media obsession is interesting.  This piece, aimed at liberals, mostly sets a tone of ripping him for not only being the anti-Hillary, he is the anti-Obama.

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/dem-thinks-he-can-win-the-anti-obama
Title: The Beck Four
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 16, 2014, 09:07:27 PM
http://youngcons.com/glenn-beck-unveiled-his-top-4-choices-for-president-in-2016-do-you-agree/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 22, 2014, 10:18:28 AM
The left MSM blitz/tsunami on girl power like the gay infatada before it is going to badger us like no tomorrow.  All in setup for their hero - Hillary.

To think they glamorize a filthy mouth like Sarah Silverman just further goes to show us how demeaned our culture has become:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywood/2014/01/21/pbs-women-honors-sarah-silverman-dunham
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 23, 2014, 07:46:40 AM
Nation’s Largest Liberal ‘Super PAC’ to Support Potential Clinton Presidential Run
The largest liberal “super PAC” in the country has begun raising money to elect Hillary Rodham Clinton president, formally aligning itself with Mrs. Clinton’s undeclared presidential ambitions more than two years away from the election.
The group, Priorities USA Action, which played a pivotal role in helping re-elect President Obama, also named new directors to steer the organization, appointments that will both cement the group’s pro-Clinton tilt and thrust veterans of Mr. Obama’s political and fund-raising operation into the center of the post-Obama Democratic Party.
The move marks perhaps the earliest-ever start to big-dollar fund-raising in support of a nonincumbent presidential candidate, providing a fund-raising portal for wealthy Clinton supporters eager to help her White House prospects — and to the legions of others eager to ingratiate themselves with Mrs. Clinton and her inner circle.
READ MORE »
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/24/us/politics/biggest-liberal-super-pac-to-fund-possible-clinton-bid.html?emc=edit_na_20140123

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 26, 2014, 09:36:43 AM
Crafty has suggested we keep Huckabee in mind.  I like this concept from Mike.  The RNC really has NO clue what they are doing.

https://news.yahoo.com/mike-huckabee-wants-republicans-to-fight-back-on--war-on-women--rhetoric-215125924.html
Title: 2016 Presidential: CNN's S.E. Cupp covers Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on January 31, 2014, 08:53:46 AM
I highly recommend this article, and especially for those thinking about not voting because of lousy, muddled choices.  Walker is winning (for Governor) in a state that has not gone Republican since 1984.  He won his state by 7.5% just before Obama won it 7%.  "What we found is, to win the center, which is the key to winning states like Wisconsin, you don't have to move to the center. That's the misnomer [in Washington] that suddenly you've got to change your core principles and move more to the center. It's just the opposite with voters who are independents or swing voters or undecided, persuadable voters. "They want leadership."

On whether Republicans need a woman on the 2016 ticket:  "Susana Martinez has done a wonderful job in a state that's clearly a blue state. Nikki Haley's doing a great job in South Carolina. Mary Fallin is doing a super job out there [in Oklahoma]. So I don't think you have to, but the beauty of any of those three names is that none of them would be token. They'd be three proven reformers and governors."

I think Walker would be a controversial VP pick.  Better at the top of the ticket.  He has moved recently from dark horse to contender for the Republican Presidential nominee.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/30/opinion/cupp-scott-walker-2016/index.html
A Republican with a message for 2016
By S.E. Cupp    Thu January 30, 2014

    S.E. Cupp: Republicans should give Scott Walker a serious look for 2016
    He says the candidate needs to build campaign around reform, not austerity
    Walker says Romney wrongly tried to win by focusing on what's wrong with incumbent
    Wisconsin governor says voters are looking for leaders who have a plan

(CNN) -- "The reason why Republicans I think sometimes get in trouble is ... they talk about cutting things. Too many people in our party talk about austerity and not about reform. There's a difference."

That was what Wisconsin's Republican Gov. Scott Walker told me this past weekend when I sat down with him at a Washington hotel restaurant to discuss a broad range of topics, including the path forward for the GOP. Whether talking about entitlement reform, food stamps, unemployment benefits or social programs, his one word mantra? Emphasize "reform."

"The mistake I think we often make is," he continued, "if we're the party of no, and we're the party of austerity, the people of this country want more. The difference is, the left offers them more government, more benefits, more assistance. We should offer them more freedom, more opportunity, more prosperity."

Over the course of our interview, the word "reform" came up dozens of times -- in his assessment of Mitt Romney, his support for Chris Christie, his praise for Paul Ryan and his advice to Republican 2016 contenders. In fact, the advice was free-flowing all around. And why not?

Walker's frequently discussed in conservative circles as a 2016 contender himself, and after winning a bruising collective bargaining dispute and surviving a vicious recall effort in 2012, he's earned a reputation as a fighter -- and the political capital that comes along with it.

According to the most recent polling, 51% approve of his job as governor, in a blue state that hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

"We are, like most Midwestern battleground states, very evenly divided among parties. I won with 7.5% of the vote in the recall election. A few months later, Barack Obama carried the state by about the same margin, about 7 points."

What he calls the "Walker/Obama" voter might sound like a creature out of political mythology, but he believes it's the key to a Republican winning in 2016.

"What we found is, to win the center, which is the key to winning states like Wisconsin, you don't have to move to the center. That's the misnomer [in Washington] that suddenly you've got to change your core principles and move more to the center. It's just the opposite with voters who are independents or swing voters or undecided, persuadable voters.

"They want leadership. We've shown that the same people who voted for me, there's a significant number of those middle-of-the-road voters who then turned around and voted for Obama." (President Obama is visiting Wisconsin on Thursday as part of his post-State of the Union tour.)

And even though he disagrees with almost all of Obama's policies, he believes Republicans could stand to take a page from his book.

"The one thing I'll give him his due on, he's a committed liberal. He's leading, he's got big, bold ideas, Obamacare being a prime example. I think that's bad policy, but at least I won't fault him for leading."
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker says the Republican message should be \
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker says the Republican message should be "reform."

After inheriting a $3.6 billion budget deficit in 2011, Walker now sits comfortably on a gross general fund balance of more than $1 billion, with $279 million in a rainy day fund. He's helped lower the unemployment rate to 6.2% from 7% in 2011, and this year he is proposing to give Wisconsinites $800 million back in income and property tax cuts and withholding changes. Personal income grew 4.4% over the past year.

"If you put more money back in the hands of the people, the hard-working taxpayers of your state, they will fuel the economy. If you put more and more of it in the hands of government, they'll take it in the opposite direction."

Despite his reputation among progressives as a union-busting "bully," who was often greeted by signs comparing him to Hitler during recall protests in Madison, Scott Walker is soft-spoken and unassuming.

In a crowded room, you might not notice the 47-year-old sitting governor, sipping hot tea as he was on Saturday. He's wonky and fluent with figures but speaks affably and quickly with a wide Wisconsin accent. "Get me going on the Packers or motorcycles and I can go all day," he says.

But when he believes a policy is deleterious, he doesn't labor to couch his rhetoric in polite Midwestern niceties.

On raising the minimum wage: "It is a cheap political stunt that may be well-intentioned by some, but it has an incredibly buzz saw type effect on the economy. And it's nothing more than a photo-op to pretend that people are doing something about creating jobs."

On Obamacare: "It's been a huge wet blanket that the federal government's thrown on employers who should otherwise be starting to hire more people."

On food stamps: "Last year, I proposed and have since done a program that says if you're an adult in my state without kids and you want to get food stamps, I'm not going to give you food stamps unless you're employed part time or enrolled in one of my employment training programs."
You can't win elections just by being against the other guy.
Scott Walker

It's this straight-forward, principled approach to economic issues that makes Walker a darling in many right-wing circles looking for a conservative candidate for 2016 whose vision is clear-eyed and concrete, unlike what some would say was Romney's confused message.

Walker readily admits Romney wasn't clear enough on his principles.

"I'm not telling tales here because I told him this for months. ... I think [Romney's] a good man, would have been a good president. But you can't win elections just by being against the other guy. You can't win elections with the premise that it's a referendum on your opposition.

"You've got to tell people why the country would be better under your leadership. Both my [recall] opponent and Mitt Romney said, 'My opponent's awful, he's a bad guy, you shouldn't vote for him.' The winners were the ones who actually told people where they were going."

But Walker also concedes there's a fine line between no-nonsense straight talk and the kind of undisciplined and undernuanced rhetoric that's gotten some other Republicans in trouble, especially when it comes to social issues.

Walker says he "obsesses" on fiscal issues because that's what voters elected him to do. He's principled and conservative on abortion and marriage, but hey says social issues simply aren't the centerpiece of his agenda. And he blames the media and Democrats for trying to make them the centerpiece of every Republican's agenda.

"The reason the left wants to talk about those other issues and obsess about those issues is because they can't cut it when it comes to the economy and fiscal issues. They want any sort of distraction to get off-topic, off-message to go on some tangent out there to have people be distracted from what the real issues are."

His advice to fellow conservatives is to talk less about social issues and, if forced to, "it's just a simple answer and move on."

"What I try to tell Republicans is, don't take the bait. Don't change your positions -- nobody in the center wants people to flip-flop just based on whatever they think conventional wisdom is at the time. They respect people who have deeply held convictions. But what they don't want is people going off on tangents on things that don't relate to what concerns them."

As for 2016, he not surprisingly prefers two governors on the Republican ticket. What might be surprising is the model for success he thinks Republicans can channel.
Why not send two proven reformers to Washington to shake things up and take on the establishment...
Scott Walker

"Kind of like Bill Clinton and Al Gore were a little unconventional in '92, but what they said that worked was, we're young, we're dynamic, we're the next generation and we're ready to go. And in this case why not send two proven reformers to Washington to shake things up and take on the establishment that Hillary Clinton's been a part of almost her entire adult life?"

One nongovernor he does like? He's partial to a young congressman from Janesville, Wisconsin.

"Paul Ryan to me is one of the few exceptions out there. I think here in D.C., he's someone that thinks like a governor. He pushes reform, he's bold and aggressive."

If Republicans looking to run in 2014 or 2016 need advice, they may want to listen to Walker, whose message of "reform" certainly has a nicer, smarter ring to it than "blame Obama." And they might want to obsess a little more over fiscal issues, despite the desire of the liberal media to make abortion and same-sex marriage a 24-hour news story.

Similarly, if voters are looking for a candidate in 2016 with proven executive experience, principled leadership and a simple mission to reform unruly and broken bureaucracy, they may just want to pay attention to Walker, too.

+++

Here is Walker on some other key issues that have been making news:

On whether Chris Christie should step down from heading the Republican Governors Association:

"No, I think in the end, he'll be fine. He's going to have his hands full in the next few months. But I talked to him the day that he had his press conference, what two hours almost? Everything that was reported there he had told me privately. So I don't hear a different message.

"And assuming, obviously a qualifier, but I have every reason to believe what he's telling me is accurate, assuming that continues, any of us, not just in a situation like this, but any of us who are pushing big, bold reform, are going to be under attack. I get attacked all the time. Other governors get attacked. I think Chris is perfectly capable of handling that."

On whether Republicans need a woman on the 2016 ticket:

"Susana Martinez has done a wonderful job in a state that's clearly a blue state. Nikki Haley's doing a great job in South Carolina. Mary Fallin is doing a super job out there [in Oklahoma]. So I don't think you have to, but the beauty of any of those three names is that none of them would be token. They'd be three proven reformers and governors."

On legalizing marijuana:

"From my standpoint, I still have concerns about making it legal. I understand from the libertarian standpoint, the argument out there. I still have concerns. I'm not, unlike the President, I still have difficulty visualizing marijuana and alcohol in the same vein.

"I've never experienced this, but I can't imagine people socially smoking the way people have a beer or two at a wedding reception. There's a huge difference out there. So in the end, I understand why people make that argument, but in our state, I don't think we're ready for that."

On an Obamacare alternative:

"The better answer to me is go the reverse direction, to a patient-centered concept, where it's market-driven and patients are the ones in charge and the tax incentives offered by states and the federal government don't discriminate between those who have employer-paid insurance or people who choose to buy it individually or choose to use it for things like health savings accounts.

"Make it the same tax incentive across the board. And in the end, you can make this about controlling cost by people making decisions based on their own health and wellness and not about the mechanical bureaucratic system and trying to reign in costs."

On raising the minimum wage:

"What it really is is dumping a so-called fresh idea off of the heap of 20 or 30 years of bad ideas of the past. And sometimes because a poll here shows people are for it a lot of politicians are afraid to take it on. I say, if you explain it to people it's not hard for people to get. It's not enough to just say 'No, I'm not for the minimum wage.'

"The better answer is to say we should be promoting pro-growth policies that make it easier for employers to not only create more jobs but grow income."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 03, 2014, 08:08:24 AM
I do not favor Huckabee. I note that Glenn Beck doesn't like him either.

Jindal would be fine with me.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 03, 2014, 08:18:22 AM
For the record, I don't "favor" Huckabee, merely that we put him on our radar screen.  I skim his show on FOX on Saturdays most weeks and FWIW since mentioning him here I have been rather underwhelmed.

Jindal handled the SOTU rebuttal for the Reps a few years ago and IMHO did a rather poor job-- this is my only observation of him in action.  Lots of interesting things in his record, but no national stature yet on national issues,  nor int'l.   Seems too young to me too.
Title: pessimistic
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2014, 07:09:07 AM
"Don't think Hillary will try to have it both ways.  She will position herself as a champion to all these interest groups while trying to distance herself from the Brock as someone who is a champion for America."

I meant don't think Hillary will *not* try to have it both ways.  I can see her outrunning the stupid ass Republicans even now.  The repubs will be claiming her policies will be a threat to America.   She will be way ahead of them and play she is the champion of American not this globalization thing.  But a version of  American that plays into all the lefts identity politics thing where women of people of color sexual orientation, religion can have equal opportunity etc., etc.   

She will outrun the Republicans.  The repubs always play chess with the Clintons one step behind.  They will criticize them for something and the next day the Clintons have their media machine out in public twisting it all around to negate or neutralize the opposition.  And the adoring media allows them to do this.  And the Repubs just look stupid.

We right just doesn't have the wise political strategists the left does. 

I can already see the RNC failing to really prepare for this. 

Folks it is hopeless unless some unexpected event occurs to change the dynamic.

And Christie was never the answer.   We don't have one so far. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2014, 07:32:51 AM
One major point on how Clintons always come away winning the media argument.  It is rather simple:

Their political people anticipate ahead of time the Repubs moves and have plans in place to rapidly hit the MSM willing airways to swipe away the "right's jump shot" before it even goes to a downward trajectory.

The right NEVER from what I have witnessed since following politics (at least since we were stuck with the Bushes) ever does the same.  The repubs are always flat footed, too late, and too little.  Always.  Only Reagan in my lifetime was able to control this.  Yet he made mistakes too.  Witness immigration.  The debt exploded under him too.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2014, 08:25:30 AM
I would focus our self-analysis on the courage of our convictions, vel non.  Again and again Reps (McCain, Romney, etc) flinch in front of race-baiting and class warfare.  In a very pleasant way (see Reagan, Dr. Ben Carson?) we need to forthrightly and aggressively assert what we are for.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2014, 05:37:58 PM
"Again and again Reps (McCain, Romney, etc) flinch in front of race-baiting and class warfare."

So do the Bush's, so do the Boehner's, etc.

"I would focus our self-analysis on the courage of our convictions, vel non.  Again and again Reps (McCain, Romney, etc) flinch in front of race-baiting and class warfare.  In a very pleasant way (see Reagan, Dr. Ben Carson?) we need to forthrightly and aggressively assert what we are for."

The Clintons will pretend they are for the same convictions.  Remember "the era of big government is over?"

We have to explain why "they are wrong" why and how "they deceive us" and why "our way is better".

And We have to explain why we are not favoring the wealthy.  The wealthy don't deserve loopholes anymore then those at the bottom deserve a free ride.

Ideology alone will not trump cold hard cash when people are struggling.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2014, 06:57:08 PM
The America of Carter was a desperate place too, yet Reagan spoke of opportunity, growth, and how to get there.  It worked.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2014, 07:32:15 PM
We only had 3 million illegals now there are probably more than five times that.

"The America of Carter was a desperate place too, yet Reagan spoke of opportunity, growth, and how to get there."

Don't kid yourself.  The Clintons will use the same lines. 

So did and does the Brock.  And he won twice.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2014, 09:39:43 PM
Ummm , , , no.   Reagan spoke quite differently from them.
Title: I rest my case
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 06, 2014, 09:59:00 AM
A Time for Choosing

Given as a stump speech, at speaking engagements, and on a memorable night in 1964 in support of Barry Goldwater's presidential campaign. This version is from that broadcast.

1964

I am going to talk of controversial things. I make no apology for this.

It's time we asked ourselves if we still know the freedoms intended for us by the Founding Fathers. James Madison said, "We base all our experiments on the capacity of mankind for self government."
Reagan as Governor

This idea -- that government was beholden to the people, that it had no other source of power -- is still the newest, most unique idea in all the long history of man's relation to man. This is the issue of this election: Whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the American Revolution and confess that a little intellectual elite in a far-distant capital can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.

You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man's age-old dream--the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order -- or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path. Plutarch warned, "The real destroyer of the liberties of the people is he who spreads among them bounties, donations and benefits."

The Founding Fathers knew a government can't control the economy without controlling people. And they knew when a government sets out to do that, it must use force and coercion to achieve its purpose. So we have come to a time for choosing.

Public servants say, always with the best of intentions, "What greater service we could render if only we had a little more money and a little more power." But the truth is that outside of its legitimate function, government does nothing as well or as economically as the private sector.

Yet any time you and I question the schemes of the do-gooders, we're denounced as being opposed to their humanitarian goals. It seems impossible to legitimately debate their solutions with the assumption that all of us share the desire to help the less fortunate. They tell us we're always "against," never "for" anything.

We are for a provision that destitution should not follow unemployment by reason of old age, and to that end we have accepted Social Security as a step toward meeting the problem. However, we are against those entrusted with this program when they practice deception regarding its fiscal shortcomings, when they charge that any criticism of the program means that we want to end payments....

We are for aiding our allies by sharing our material blessings with nations which share our fundamental beliefs, but we are against doling out money government to government, creating bureaucracy, if not socialism, all over the world.

We need true tax reform that will at least make a start toward restoring for our children the American Dream that wealth is denied to no one, that each individual has the right to fly as high as his strength and ability will take him.... But we cannot have such reform while our tax policy is engineered by people who view the tax as a means of achieving changes in our social structure....

Have we the courage and the will to face up to the immorality and discrimination of the progressive tax, and demand a return to traditional proportionate taxation? . . . Today in our country the tax collector's share is 37 cents of every dollar earned. Freedom has never been so fragile, so close to slipping from our grasp.

Are you willing to spend time studying the issues, making yourself aware, and then conveying that information to family and friends? Will you resist the temptation to get a government handout for your community? Realize that the doctor's fight against socialized medicine is your fight. We can't socialize the doctors without socializing the patients. Recognize that government invasion of public power is eventually an assault upon your own business. If some among you fear taking a stand because you are afraid of reprisals from customers, clients, or even government, recognize that you are just feeding the crocodile hoping he'll eat you last.

If all of this seems like a great deal of trouble, think what's at stake. We are faced with the most evil enemy mankind has known in his long climb from the swamp to the stars. There can be no security anywhere in the free world if there is no fiscal and economic stability within the United States. Those who ask us to trade our freedom for the soup kitchen of the welfare state are architects of a policy of accommodation.

They say the world has become too complex for simple answers. They are wrong. There are no easy answers, but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right. Winston Churchill said that "the destiny of man is not measured by material computation. When great forces are on the move in the world, we learn we are spirits--not animals." And he said, "There is something going on in time and space, and beyond time and space, which, whether we like it or not, spells duty."

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children's children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 09, 2014, 05:55:39 PM
I just don't get it.  Do these ex military types really believe this?  Or are they anticipating big pay offs joining the Clinton industrial complex?  There is so much money to be made through supporting her me thinks.


****Ex-Gen. David Petraeus says Hillary Clinton would ‘make a tremendous President’

The former commander and CIA Director made the laudatory comments in the new book, ‘HRC: State Secrets and the Rebirth of Hillary Clinton,’ to be released Tuesday.
Comments (16)
By Adam Edelman  / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

Sunday, February 9, 2014, 4:31 PM.

Former Gen. David Petraeus shakes hands with then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2008. The two grew close, a new book alleges, during Clinton’s time as Secretary of State.


Former Gen. David Petraeus shakes hands with then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2008. The two grew close, a new book alleges, during Clinton’s time as Secretary of State.

Former Army Gen. David Petraeus , who has traditionally stayed away from political endorsements, appears to be eager to support a Hillary Clinton candidacy, a new book alleges.

“She’d make a tremendous President,” the former commander and CIA director reportedly says in the new book “ HRC: State Secrets and the Rebirth of Hillary Clinton,” by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes.

RELATED: PETRAEUS TRIED TO DOWNGRADE WAR HERO’S AWARD

“Like a lot of great leaders, her most impressive qualities were most visible during tough times,” Petraeus adds.

Former CIA director and retired four-star general David Petraeus has typically stayed away from praising or bashing political candidates and office-holders.
Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Former CIA director and retired four-star general David Petraeus has typically stayed away from praising or bashing political candidates and office-holders.

The comments mark an interesting departure for Petraeus, who, when it comes to politics, has typically remained quiet.

The book, to be released Tuesday, alleges that the unlikely pair forged a friendship while Clinton was Secretary of State.

According to excerpts of “HRC,” obtained by ABC News, Clinton, soon after taking office, invited Petraeus to her Washington home to drink wine and discuss Middle East issues. The night was so enjoyable that she invited him over again the next night to continue their chat****


Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ex-gen-david-petraeus-hillary-clinton-tremendous-president-article-1.1607801#ixzz2sscBwnCL
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2014, 07:49:42 AM
WTF?!?   :cry: :cry: :cry:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Hillary -Petraeus alliance
Post by: DougMacG on February 10, 2014, 08:34:50 AM
WTF?!?   :cry: :cry: :cry:

Is she attracted to adulterers, lol.  Very strange bedfellows, so to speak.  Hillary is a known commodity, so this tells us more about Gen. Petraeus.  What exactly, I don't know.  He was a brilliant tactician, but also walked into a pretty stupid personal scandal and lost his job and career over it.  http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-deemed-petraeus-affair-part-criminal-intel-probe/story?id=17696177  Perhaps they did become friends as she tried to make up for her other friends running "General Betray Us" ads. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CckxcVZpO  Perhaps she would be a stronger President on military matters and foreign affairs than Barack Obama.  She voted for the Iraq war for example.  (In 2016, will America be looking for a hawk or a dove?)

There are zero degrees of separation between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the domestic and economic issues.  They served in the Senate Majority together,starting at 4.6% unemployment as they worked to take this economy down.  

Tell me something, General, where was Hillary Clinton when the 3am phone call came in?  And where were you?!

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/02/112890-benghazi-cover-continues-smoking-gun-former-cia-director-morrell-editing-talking-points/
Hillary Campaign Adviser Lied About CIA's Role Editing Benghazi Talking Points

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/02/benghazi-cia-libya_n_2062131.html
The Journal's report placed the blame for many of the missteps in Benghazi specifically on CIA director David Petraeus
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, McClatchy Poll, Feb 2014
Post by: DougMacG on February 12, 2014, 07:28:43 PM
Being frontrunner too early may be bad luck and lousy timing (Pres. Giuliani?) but I take note that my own favorite , Marco Rubio, is only a point out of first place in the latest poll:  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Huckabee 13, Christie 13, Rubio 12, Ryan 9, Rand Paul 9, Jeb Bush 8, Walker 7, Cruz 5. 
Title: Bobby Jindal comes out swinging
Post by: bigdog on February 26, 2014, 06:44:43 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kathleen-parker-bobby-jindal-waves-war-flag/2014/02/25/4ee4a9ce-9e5d-11e3-a050-dc3322a94fa7_story.html

From the article:

Of course he’s running for president in 2016. He hasn’t said so, but he clearly is. His actions speak far louder than his words. Given this obvious fact, Jindal can’t start too soon demonstrating his older, wiser, more experienced persona. He has to be aggressive to convince the Republican base that he’s a stand-up guy willing to jump in the ring with Apollo Creed. Okay, so maybe with Dannel Malloy.

This isn’t such an easy sell for the slightly built Rhodes scholar who became the nation’s youngest governor. And though Jindal is a Catholic convert — and he speaks with the natural lilt of his birth state of Louisiana — he is not visually “one of us” in the way some Republicans have demonstrated they’re most comfortable. To the birther sensibility, if President Obama was born in Kenya, then Jindal could be from Punjab. In fact, he was conceived there but born in Baton Rouge.
Title: Re: Bobby Jindal comes out swinging
Post by: DougMacG on February 26, 2014, 07:14:29 AM
"he is not visually “one of us” in the way some Republicans have demonstrated they’re most comfortable."

Conservatives and Republicans are thrilled to draw leadership (and rank and file) from other than older white males.  They gave Herman Cain a good, close look.  They liked having Bachmann on the stage, and they like Rubio's authentic, fluent Spanish.  Mia Love was the star of the last convention.  Asian Americans are anther group conservatives need to start reaching.  This will come down to merit, experience, positions on issues and ability to communicate a clear message - to all.

Bobby Jindal has the smarts and experience to be a great President.  He will win the nomination if he is seen as the best at conveying the message and getting things done.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 26, 2014, 07:18:47 AM
"he is not visually “one of us” in the way some Republicans have demonstrated they’re most comfortable. To the birther sensibility, if President Obama was born in Kenya, then Jindal could be from Punjab. In fact, he was conceived there but born in Baton Rouge."

So how could he have been elected governor of a Southern Republican state if so many are uncomfortable with him?

The usual left wing media hit job.

And what is that racist comment about brownies?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 26, 2014, 08:11:21 AM
"The usual left wing media hit job."

The Washington Post author is Kathleen Parker, somewhat conservative and 2010 Pulitzer Prize winner for Commentary.  She does however work for the Post.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 26, 2014, 06:24:34 PM
Doug, thanks.  Maybe I misread the article of have misunderstood Parker and

I have not made political persuasion a study but I always saw her as leftist:

http://www.conservativehq.com/node/14524
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 27, 2014, 07:33:12 AM
Doug, thanks.  Maybe I misread the article of have misunderstood Parker and
I have not made political persuasion a study but I always saw her as leftist:
http://www.conservativehq.com/node/14524

Maybe she is a faux-conservative, along the lines of David Brooks.  The line of hers you identified was leftist.

"he is not visually “one of us” in the way some Republicans have demonstrated they’re most comfortable.

Not just leftist but bad journalism.  Where is the supporting evidence to make such a bold claim?  They give out those Pulitzers  like they are just Nobels.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 27, 2014, 02:58:24 PM
Heh. America's credit rating isn't the only thing downgraded the last five years.
Title: 2016 Presidential: Pence, Walker, Bush, Rubio, Jindal
Post by: DougMacG on April 10, 2014, 03:50:50 PM
The name (Gov) Mike Pence comes up again:
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/JebBush-HillaryClinton-BillKristol/2014/04/08/id/564309/

Gov. Scott Walker attended Marquette Univ. 4 years, did not graduate.  He is looking at finishing now through correspondence, 'not for political reasons':  http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/getting-a-degree-would-encourage-others-scott-walker-says-b99244173z1-254559581.html

Jeb Bush not really running, just clearing a path for Marco Rubio...
http://www.splicetoday.com/politics-and-media/the-importance-of-jeb-bush

'Reason' asks, Can Bobby Jindal's Health Plan Get the Republican Party on Track?
The Louisiana governor's proposal could be a turning point for the party.
Jindal’s plan was a challenge to his fellow Republicans to take health policy more seriously, to reckon with the tradeoffs it requires, and to begin the process of unifying around an alternative. It was a declaration, of sorts, that Republicans and the right could—and should—be wonky and policy focused too.
http://reason.com/archives/2014/04/08/can-bobby-jindal-change-the-republican-p
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 10, 2014, 05:45:57 PM
I could swear I saw Huckabee's name appear at the top of a poll cited on FOX the other day , , ,
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 11, 2014, 08:12:31 AM
I could swear I saw Huckabee's name appear at the top of a poll cited on FOX the other day , , ,

I think that was for Iowa.

Adding to my previous: Huckabee is thinking of running.  Hillary is thinking about running.
Title: WSJ endorses Sen Rand Paul for president , , , not
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 15, 2014, 10:12:34 AM
Rand Paul for President
Because what the GOP needs is a humbling landslide defeat.
By Bret Stephens


April 14, 2014 7:03 p.m. ET

Republicans, let's get it over with. Fast forward to the finish line. Avoid the long and winding primary road. It can only weaken the nominee. And we know who he—yes, he—has to be.

Not Jeb Bush, who plainly is unsuited to be president. He is insufficiently hostile to Mexicans. He holds heretical views on the Common Core, which, as we well know, is the defining issue of our time. And he's a Bush. Another installment of a political dynasty just isn't going to fly with the American people, who want some fresh blood in their politics.

Unless the dynasty is named Clinton. Or Kennedy. Or Nunn. Or Carter. Or, come to think of it, Paul. In that case, dynasties are just fine, thank you.

Chris Christie is also unfit to be president. His aides caused a traffic jam in the service of a petty political vendetta. The New Jersey governor may not have known about it, but it doesn't matter because the mere taint of scandal makes him unfit to be the Republican nominee, much less the president.


Unlike, say, the impeached former president. In 1999 Bill Clinton was cited for contempt of court by a federal judge. In 2001 he had his law license suspended for five years by the Arkansas Supreme Court. His post-presidential charitable work, the New York Times NYT +2.06% reported last year, is "a sprawling concern, supervised by a rotating board of old Clinton hands, vulnerable to distraction and threatened by conflicts of interest." A "taint of scandal," perhaps? In Bill's case, it's more like eau de cologne, irresistible to the ladies.

No, what we need as the Republican nominee in 2016 is a man of more glaring disqualifications. Someone so nakedly unacceptable to the overwhelming majority of sane Americans that only the GOP could think of nominating him.

This man is Rand Paul, the junior senator from a state with eight electoral votes. The man who, as of this writing, has three years worth of experience in elected office. Barack Obama had more political experience when he ran for president. That's worked out well.

Mr. Paul was in New Hampshire last weekend, speaking to conservative activists at the Freedom Summit, emphasizing the need for Republicans to do a better job of reaching out to Hispanics and African-Americans.

It's a fine message. Or rather, it would be a fine message if it weren't for Mr. Paul's long political association with Jack Hunter, aka the "Southern Avenger," a former radio shock jock who co-wrote Mr. Paul's 2011 book "The Tea Party Goes to Washington." On April 14, 2004—the 139th anniversary of Abraham Lincoln's assassination—Mr. Hunter wrote a column titled " John Wilkes Booth Was Right." He also lamented that "whites are not afforded the same right to celebrate their own cultural identity" as blacks and Hispanics.

Mr. Hunter remained a member of Mr. Paul's staff until last July, when the Washington Free Beacon broke the story. Afterward, Mr. Hunter recanted his views and pleaded amnesia. As for Mr. Paul, he defended his former aide, saying he had merely been "stupid," that he had been "unfairly treated by the media," and that "he got along fine with everybody in the office, treated everyone fairly, regardless of race or religion."

So can we now, um, switch the subject?

Yes, we can. Let's move on to a YouTube video of Mr. Paul in April 2009, offering his insights to a college group on foreign policy. Channeling Dwight Eisenhower, the future senator warned "we need to be so fearful of companies that get so big that they can actually be directing policy."

"When the Iraq war started, Halliburton got a billion-dollar no-bid contract. Some of the stuff has been so shoddy and so sloppy that our soldiers are over there dying in the shower from electrocution."

Then he gets to his real point: Dick Cheney, who opposed driving all the way to Baghdad when he was defense secretary in the first Bush administration, later went to work for Halliburton. "Makes hundreds of millions of dollars, their CEO. Next thing you know, he's back in government and it's a good thing to go into Iraq."

Mr. Paul's conclusion: "9/11 became an excuse for a war they already wanted in Iraq."

Cui bono—to whose benefit? It's the signature question of every conspiracy theorist with an unhinged mind. C heney. Halliburton. Big Oil. The military-industrial complex. Neocons. 9/11. Soldiers electrocuted in the shower. It all makes perfect sense, doesn't it?

If Mr. Paul wants to accuse the former vice president of engineering a war in Iraq so he could shovel some profits over to his past employer, he should come out and say so explicitly. Ideally at the next Heritage Action powwow. Let's not mince words. This man wants to be the Republican nominee for president.

And so he should be. Because maybe what the GOP needs is another humbling landslide defeat. When moderation on a subject like immigration is ideologically disqualifying, but bark-at-the-moon lunacy about Halliburton is not, then the party has worse problems than merely its choice of nominee.

Write to bstephens@wsj.com
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Bret Stephens, Rand Paul
Post by: DougMacG on April 15, 2014, 12:04:42 PM
I wonder what any Rand Paul supporters here think of the specific points made by Stephens, such as this one:

Dick Cheney, who opposed driving all the way to Baghdad when he was defense secretary in the first Bush administration, later went to work for Halliburton. "Makes hundreds of millions of dollars, their CEO. Next thing you know, he's back in government and it's a good thing to go into Iraq."  Mr. Paul's conclusion: "9/11 became an excuse for a war they already wanted in Iraq."

Let's dissect that a little.  The circumstances for not going into Baghdad a decade earlier were different - a misleading and empty comparison. The reasons to want to go into Iraq prior to 9/11/01 were lengthy including the violation of all agreements made in the original ceasefire, supporting terrorists - yes, nuclear inspection refusals and shooting daily at American aircraft.  To focus on the Halliburton profit take is to join and validate the shameful left, in my view.  The Ron Paul view , and Rand Paul too if he embraces it, is that we shouldn't have been there in the first place enforcing those agreements, leaving him/them again with only the strange bedfellows of the far-left.

Let's accept that we all have different views on foreign policy.  People including Bill Krystal (and Crafty) heavily faulted Rumsfeld and Bush for staying too long with a failed strategy in Iraq.  But that is VERY different from the statement above which attacks the motive of the American - Republican Vice President, not just the strategy of the people who disagree with him, even on his own team.

Besides rejecting the winning concept of peace through strength, needlessly attacking your own side below the belt is not exactly Reaganesque.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on April 15, 2014, 01:17:13 PM
Gov. Scott Walker up by 16 with 59% job approval in yellow state Wisconsin.

https://www.snc.edu/sri/docs/2014/201404frequencies.pdf
Wisconsin Public Radio / Wisconsin Survey

Title: Santorum: I like his ideas
Post by: ccp on April 26, 2014, 06:01:16 PM
AP Interview: Santorum undecided in 2016 bid

Associated Press
By PHILIP ELLIOTT 6 hours ago
 
Former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., poses for a portrait in his publishers office Wednesday, April 23, 2014 in Washington, before an interview about his recently released book titled "Blue Color Conservative." The once and perhaps future presidential candidate has lots of policy ideas for fellow Republicans seeking public office. He's just not sure he’ll be one of those hopefuls ever again. "Yeah, I don’t know if I can do this. It’s just tough," Santorum said about another White House run. In the interview, Santorum said the GOP will struggle to win races unless candidates came up with policies that help working Americans. (AP Photo/J. David Ake)

WASHINGTON (AP) — The once and perhaps future presidential candidate Rick Santorum has lots of policy ideas for fellow Republicans seeking public office.

He's just not sure he'll be one of those hopefuls ever again.

"Yeah, I don't know if I can do this. It's just tough," Santorum said about another White House run.

The former Pennsylvania senator tells The Associated Press in an interview that he isn't ruling out a 2016 candidacy.

But, he says, there are plenty of reasons why he wouldn't do it.

He is enjoying a second career as a movie studio executive. His daughter's health remains a concern.

And, Santorum writes in a new book, he can help shape his party's future from offstage.

In the interview, Santorum said the GOP will struggle to win races unless candidates came up with policies that help working Americans.

Victories will be tough, he said, unless elected officials stop being obstructionists.

Santorum said the libertarian streak running through his party distorts the definition of freedom, and that politicians wrongly look to President Ronald Reagan's policies to address today's challenges.

Then there's Santorum's slap at Republicans who demonize social welfare programs.

"Do Republicans really care less about the person at the bottom of the ladder than Democrats do? To be painfully honest, I would have to say in some ways 'yes,'" Santorum writes in his book, "Blue Collar Conservatives: Recommitting to an America That Works."

The tough talk raises questions about Santorum's viability in what could be a crowded 2016 primary field.

Also, he's not rushing to camp out in early nominating Iowa or New Hampshire again.

"A while. A year at least, probably," he said of his timeline to decide on a 2016 bid.

Santorum ran an upstart campaign in 2012, surviving long enough to be Mitt Romney's last remaining rival. He struggled to raise money or support among establishment-minded Republicans, but his socially conservative profile drew enough backing for Santorum to pick up victories in 11 states.

Even in victory, his disorganized campaign cost him, including failing to qualify for the ballot in Virginia.

"We cannot run the campaign we ran last time if we run this time," Santorum said.

How Republicans win is the focus of Santorum's latest book, to be released Monday.

Santorum offers ideas on energy, education, the economy and health care. It comes across as part think tank policy paper, part campaign playbook and part communications advice on how to connect with working-class voters.

For instance, Republicans should not focus exclusively on business leaders and "job creators" and should speak to employees, Santorum said.

Anxiety among those voters remains high, and Republicans have for too long talked to the top earners and not the workers.

"A rising tide lifts all boats — unless your boat has a hole in it. A lot of Americans, we've got holes in our boats," Santorum said. "Millions and millions of Americans (are) out there who want good lives but have holes in their boats. ... They just see the water level going up and their boat sinking."

That's why, he argues, candidates need to put forward policies to help those voters.

"I'm looking at 2014 and I'm thinking the Republican Party is heading toward No-ville, which is 'we're against this, we're against that, we're against this.' We're not painting a positive vision for America," Santorum said in the interview.

After the 2012 campaign, he signed on as CEO of EchoLight Studies, which produces movies rooted in faith and family.

"I saw an opportunity to do something in the space where we need to have movies that have a faith message in them that are better than the movies that have been done," Santorum said.

At home, 5-year-old daughter Bella keeps Santorum busy. She has a genetic disorder, Trisomy 18, which causes brain, heart and internal organ developmental abnormalities. Almost all children die within the first year of life.

Bella turns 6 in May and the senator is at work on a book about his daughter. Her difficult nights have sometimes kept Santorum at her bedside.

Santorum said family issues would drive his decision to run or not, and Bella would be a key factor.

His other six other children, Santorum said, are "all very open to dad doing this again."

But Santorum isn't rushing into anything. A primary might feature the libertarian wing of the party, led in part by two prominent tea partyers, Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas.

"There's a strain within the Republican Party now that smacks of the no-government conservatism," Santorum said. "That wasn't Ronald Regan. It wasn't Teddy Roosevelt. It wasn't Abraham Lincoln. It wasn't any Republican that I'm aware of. It wasn't Calvin Coolidge. And yet there seems to be this creation of this strain of conservatism that has no basis in conservatism."

Santorum said Republicans should respect Reagan, but he doubted the former president would offer the same policies today that he did during the 1970s and 1980s.

Santorum also includes plenty of incendiary rhetoric in his book that he acknowledges could haunt him should he run again.

In addition to the sentence about Republicans and social safety nets, Santorum writes that poor voters "took their lie about sex without consequences as gospel" and calls climate change a "hyped-up crisis."

___

Follow Philip Elliott on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/philip_elliott
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential: Mike Pence
Post by: DougMacG on April 28, 2014, 09:23:11 AM
Fox News Sunday, meet Gov. Mike Pence R-Indiana.  10 minutes with Chris Wallace.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/04/27/gov_mike_pence_on_gun_control__ukraine.html

As Joe Biden might say, he is clean, bright and articulate!
Title: Hillary Clinton: 66-year-old child...
Post by: objectivist1 on April 30, 2014, 04:30:20 AM
Hillary Clinton’s Problem Isn’t Age, It’s Experience

Posted By Daniel Greenfield On April 30, 2014 @ frontpagemag.com

The problem with Hillary Clinton’s candidacy isn’t that she would take office at the age of 69. An older and more mature president is not a bad thing. It’s how little she has done in that time.

After 2008, when Hillary was beaten by an even more inexperienced candidate, most people forgot just how little experience she has holding elected office.

Hillary Clinton only won one political office and she did so in her fifties. Despite winning two elections, her Senate career only covered the period from January 2001 to January 2009.

It’s more time than Obama spent in the Senate, but that’s not saying much.

JFK was considered young and inexperienced after spending 14 years in Congress. Hillary Clinton isn’t young, but her experience in elected office at the age of 69 will be less than his was at the age of 44.

Hillary’s supporters will argue that she has plenty of experience in public life. Unfortunately it’s the wrong kind of experience.

Like Elizabeth Warren, a slightly younger and more left-wing Hillary clone, she spent a good deal of time in the corrupt intersection between leftist non-profits, corporate boards and politically connected legal positions. The bad lessons those posts taught her are evident from Whitewater and HillaryCare.

Hillary Clinton embodies the corrupt culture of Washington D.C. whose cronyism and nepotism she has far too much experience with as the other half of a power couple notorious for personal and political corruption.

When they left, Bill and Hillary trailed illegal pardons and stolen property behind them.  As recently as 2008, Bob Herbert of the New York Times wrote, “The Clintons should be ashamed of themselves. But they long ago proved to the world that they have no shame.”

Back in 2001, he had suggested that the Clintons might one day be “led away in handcuffs”.

That’s Hillary Clinton’s real experience and it’s not policy experience or foreign policy experience. It’s the politics of political corruption. Hillary Clinton’s track record doesn’t consist of policy achievements. It’s in the people she knows and owes favors to, the legion of corrupt associates of Clintonworld and the millionaires and billionaires who fund her unscrupulous political ambitions with their dirty money.

If Hillary’s last name were still Rodham, no one would have even proposed her for Senate. There is absolutely nothing in her record or her ideas that recommends her for higher office.

Not only is she inexperienced and inept, despite her many makeovers she is a colorless figure with the speaking style and fashion sense of a college registrar, and a bureaucrat’s cagey instinct for pre-emptive cover-ups that only make her look more suspicious even when she didn’t actually do anything wrong.

Hillary Clinton did nothing of note either as Senator or Secretary of State. The reason why her time in the Senate is remembered on the left for her Iraq War vote and her time as Secretary of State is remembered on the right for Benghazi is that there isn’t anything else to remember her for.

The high points of her national career are negative; terminated from Watergate after unethical behavior, a failure on government health care as First Lady, an Iraq War vote that she spent five years lying about and the abandonment of Americans in Benghazi as Secretary of State.

And a track record of trying to blame her decisions on everyone else.

Despite voting for the Iraq War, Hillary blamed Bush for a “rush to war” and for “triggering” the conflict. Few on the left have forgotten that she had even more positions on the Iraq War than John Kerry and that her positions changed completely based on what was going on in America and Iraq at the time.

When it came to Benghazi, other people took the fall for a horrifying failure that she claimed to be accepting responsibility for, while her own pet committee shifted the blame onto others.

Hillary Clinton accused Obama of being unready for a 3 A.M. phone call, but does anyone believe that she would take a 3 A.M. phone call and make a quick decision in a crisis? Is there anything in her track record in the Senate or as Secretary of State that suggests that she is bold and decisive?

Anything at all?

Hillary Clinton carefully avoided a track record. In the Senate, she invariably went with the least controversial position on every issue until she began overcompensating on Iraq to win back the left.

In the Senate, she was for a ban on flag burning, Cap and Trade, nuclear power, for Israel, for  Palestine, for abortion, against abortion, for harsh criminal penalties, against harsh criminal penalties, for No Child Left Behind, against No Child Left Behind, for gay marriage, against gay marriage, for medical marijuana and against medical marijuana.

If the polls opposed gay marriage, she was against it. If the polls supported it, she was for it. The same went for everything else.

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton staked out a bold position in favor of visiting other countries and shaking hands with their leaders.

This is not a woman who takes 3 A.M. phone calls. Not without polling them first and issuing a non-definitive statement in the vaguest possible language that she can’t be held accountable for in any way.

This isn’t a record that speaks of experience. It’s the record of a woman working hard to avoid ever having an experience, a position or a conscience.

JFK came into the White House having seen combat and having come close to dying many times. He had spent almost a decade and a half in Congress and taken positions on important issues.

Hillary Clinton may be almost 70 at that same point, but without a fraction of his experience, and she has tried to make up for it with childish lies like claiming to have come under sniper fire in Bosnia, claiming to have negotiated open borders for refugees in Kosovo and  claiming to have been instrumental in the Irish peace process.

It’s no wonder that the chief counsel to the House Judiciary Committee in Watergate said of her, “She was a liar.”

Hillary’s experience is as imaginary as her work bringing peace to Northern Ireland. The issue isn’t her age; it’s her lack of principles and her lack of courage. Hillary Clinton compensates for a mediocre career of political cronyism with ridiculous lies in an act of neurotic insecurity.

Hillary Clinton isn’t too old to be president. She’s too adolescent, untried and immature. She has made too few decisions that matter, taken too few risks and even less responsibility and lives an imaginary Walter Mitty life of death-defying adventures that only exist in her mind and her press releases.

Hillary isn’t just incompetent, corrupt or a liar. Like too many of her peers, she’s a 66-year-old child.
Title: The Clintons
Post by: ccp on May 04, 2014, 05:09:23 AM
Sorry Doug.  As much as I wish you are right I beg to differ......

"And Geffen, who gave Obama his first big Hollywood fund-raiser in 2008 and broke with the Clintons because he felt they lied “with such ease, it’s troubling,” now says he will “absolutely” support Hillary in 2016, calling her “an extraordinary, smart, accomplished woman.”

This country is so screwed.  Barring an unforeseen event or events the Republican party which by the way also does NOT represent me, but is closer to my values, has NO chance of defeating this *machine*.  The machine is far greater than the Clintons themselves.  It truly is remarkable how all Crats consistently fall into line when needed.  Just remarkable.
Any semblance of honesty or ethics is right out the window.  Lock step Jack footed boots; in lock step, and marching forward:

****Maureen Dowd

42 and 45 Overpower 44
MAY 3, 2014

Maureen Dowd  
WASHINGTON — THE First Family is all over the news, discussing the management of the economy, income inequality, raising the minimum wage, the vicissitudes of press coverage and the benefits of healthy eating.

Everywhere you look, the Clintons rule.

Bill popped up on the front page of The Times giving a speech at his alma mater, Georgetown University, in which he defended his economic policies and chastised the press for its tendency to create a “storyline” that doesn’t match reality. (Sort of like the storyline the Clintons created about Monica Lewinsky being a delusional stalker.)

Hillary’s Apache dance with the press is detailed in the new issue of Politico Magazine, a piece that got a lot more buzz than the news the White House was excited about on Friday: a sharp drop in the unemployment rate.

Chelsea is serenely smiling from the cover of Fast Company for a story on how “the product of two of the most powerful brands in the world” is “carving out her own identity — by joining the family business,” as vice chair in charge of shaping up the tangled finances of the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation. Her impending baby is being treated with enormous fanfare and exhaustive political analysis, like America’s answer to Britain’s bonny Prince George.

Obamaworld was even paranoid that Hillaryland would hijack the B-list festivities associated with the annual White House Correspondents Dinner this weekend.

The former and future Democratic regime is clearly itching to get back in the saddle and relieve a president who is stalled on every front, and who never really got any joy from working the joystick of power or appreciated the value of the carrot-stick approach that helped Lincoln and L.B.J. bend history.

Both President Obama and Hillary have recently referred to leadership as a relay race. And if a fatigued and fed-up Obama looks ready to pass the baton early, the ravenous and relentless Clintons look ready to grab it — and maybe give him a few whacks over the head with it.

Obama’s reign has become increasingly bloodless, and while the Clintons are not new blood, they do convey more vitality than the formerly electrifying politician in the White House.

Things have now reached the point where it feels as though 42 and 45 have already taken over the reins of Washington power from 44, who is fading Snapchat-fast.

The Clintons now have Obama, as one top Democrat said, “totally at their mercy” because they “take the oxygen out of the room.”

Hillary’s stock is so high — almost as high as her speaking fees — that in The Daily Beast, Tina Brown urged the front-runner to skip the campaign and simply go straight to becoming “post-President.”

Just to make the Clintons feel completely at home as they ramp up to the restoration, there is even a congressional investigation spurred by the vast right-wing conspiracy.

House Speaker John Boehner announced Friday that he would call a vote to set up a select committee to look into the Benghazi debacle, and whether Congress was misled by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others in the Obama administration.

As Slate’s Dave Weigel tweeted, “The nice thing about having a Benghazi select committee is you can roll it over into the Hillary presidency.”

Many of those who aroused the Clintons’ opprobrium and well-known taste for vengeance by supporting the rookie Barack Obama in 2008 thought they were headed to a fresh era in politics, moving past the gnarly braiding of the personal and political that led to chaos in the Clinton era.

But the Clinton machine, once described by David Geffen as “very unpleasant and unattractive and effective,” has a Rasputin resilience. And now those who broke away are in the awkward position of having to make nice with the woman they helped vanquish.

Samantha Power recently said that she regretted calling Hillary a “monster” and offered her new view: “She just brings such rigor and conviction to everything she touches.”

Claire McCaskill, who endorsed Obama in 2008 and said she didn’t want her daughter near Bill Clinton and confided to a friend that she was nervous to be alone in an elevator with Hillary, announced in June that she is “Ready for Hillary.”

Caroline Kennedy, whose endorsement in 2008 comparing Obama to her father was pivotal, told NBC’s Chuck Todd: “I would like to see her run if that’s what she wants to do. I think she would be great.”

The will take a 42 and 45 anytime over a 41, 43 and 45.
There's just enough time for Barry to resign, make Joe president and show Bill and Hill he door.
 
Geffen might note the Clinton's still lie at ease, but next to Obama, they sound like saints. Come to think of it, Richard Nixon was a saint...
 
 And Geffen, who gave Obama his first big Hollywood fund-raiser in 2008 and broke with the Clintons because he felt they lied “with such ease, it’s troubling,” now says he will “absolutely” support Hillary in 2016, calling her “an extraordinary, smart, accomplished woman.”

Elizabeth Warren, who criticized Hillary in a 2003 book for an unprincipled stand on a bankruptcy bill, siding with the big banks she needed to bankroll her political career, lets Hillary off the hook in her new book.

Leon Panetta, who served as chief of staff for Bill Clinton and secretary of defense for Obama, told The Times that Obama had not yet defined America’s 21st-century role in the world.

“Hopefully, he’ll do it,” Panetta said, “and certainly, she would.”

The president who dreamed of being “transformative” seems bummed, and that’s bumming out Americans.

But when you talk about batting singles, you’re just asking to be overshadowed by the next big draft pick. If you’re playing small ball and you’re articulating your diminished expectations, it’s only natural that someone is going to fill the void.

Some Obama aides get irritated when Hillary distances herself from Obama and when her advisers paint her as tougher than Obama, someone who wouldn’t be afraid to drop the hammer and sickle on Vladimir Putin.

And some in Obamaworld think she could have skipped her $200,000-plus speeches to Goldman Sachs and helped the stumbling president make his push on health care, given that the push was focused on moms and kids, an area of interest for the woman who would be the first woman president.
Continue reading the main story  239Comments
But they were hoisted on their own petard. It was the lone-cat President Obama who ignored the usual practice in politics — dancin’ with those who brung ya and dismantling your bitter rival’s machine — and encouraged the view of Hillary as the presumptive nominee over his unfailingly loyal vice president, Joe Biden. Three of his key political advisers — Jim Messina, Jeremy Bird and Mitch Stewart — have gone to super PACs supporting Hillary.

David Plouffe, the president’s former top political adviser, said Hillary could call him for advice and told Bloomberg’s Al Hunt that “there’s very little oxygen” for another Democrat to challenge her.

As Obama has learned, to his dismay, there’s now very little oxygen for him, too.
 
A version of this op-ed appears in print on May 4, 2014, on page SR1 of the New York edition with the headline: 42 and 45 Overpower 44. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 04, 2014, 10:23:33 AM
(http://cdn.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Hilary2016-bumper-sticker.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Rubio grades HRC
Post by: DougMacG on May 12, 2014, 10:38:42 AM
One potential matchup for 2016 is Marco Rubio vs. Hillary Clinton.  Compare the passion is Rubio's recent Senate rant against tyranny with Hillary Clinton's record of refusing to name Boko Haram terrorist, and saying - still - of Benghazi: What difference, at this point, does it make?
--------------------------------

JONATHAN KARL, ABC NEWS: How big a problem is this going to be for Hillary Clinton? How much of this can be used against her?

RUBIO: Well, I'm sure she's going to go around bragging about her time in the State Department. She's also going to have to be held accountable for its failures, whether it's the failed reset with Russia, or the failure in Benghazi that actually cost lives...

KARL: So what grade do you give her as secretary of state?

RUBIO: I don't think she has a passing grade. In fact, if you look at...

KARL: You think she's an F?

RUBIO: Yes. Because if you look at the diplomacy that was pursued in her time in the State Department, it has failed everywhere in the world. So here's what I would say, if she is going to run on her record as secretary of state, she is also going to have to answer for its massive failures.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/05/11/rubio_i_am_ready_to_be_president_hillary_gets_an_f_as_secretary_of_state.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Jay Cost thinks Hillary will win Dem nomination
Post by: DougMacG on May 29, 2014, 07:06:10 AM
I predicted the opposite.  Jay Cost knows more than me and has excellent analysis here.  I will stick with my prediction.

Jay Cost:  "None of this is to claim that Clinton is an objectively strong candidate. She manifestly is not..."

Note that he is only predicting the Dem nomination.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/frontrunner_793500.html?nopager=1

The Frontrunner
Hillary’s Democratic challengers are likely to fall short.
JUN 2, 2014, VOL. 19, NO. 36 • BY JAY COST

Hillary Clinton is back in the news, facing questions about her health and lingering doubts about what exactly happened in the aftermath of the Benghazi terror attack. Meanwhile, some Democrats—Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont most notable among them—have been making noises about challenging Clinton for the Democratic nomination. In light of the fact that Clinton was the overwhelming frontrunner at this point in the 2008 cycle, such events cannot be overlooked. It’s a fair question to ask: Is Clinton really as strong as she appears for the 2016 Democratic nod?


GARY LOCKE

In a word: yes. While she’s unlikely to go unchallenged, the landscape favors her overwhelmingly.

The rules of the two parties’ nominations systems are virtually identical, but since their coalitions are different, the dramas play out differently. On the Republican side, voters tend to be demographically similar, and the main question is ideological, with candidates squaring off over economic, foreign, and cultural issues. On the Democratic side, there are substantial demographic differences, and the interplay of race, gender, and socioeconomic status has often been determinative.

So to get an early read on the 2016 Democratic battle, one can start by looking at the groups that make up the Democratic party. Who are they, and whom might they support? First, the party has a substantial and growing minority population. Barack Obama’s coalition in 2012 was 45 percent nonwhite, compared to 35 percent in 2008 and 27 percent for Bill Clinton in 1996. Within the nonwhite population, Latino and African-American voters have been known to back different candidates.

Then there is the socially upscale, usually white liberal vote: university professors, government and nonprofit workers, college students, and so on, who are very interested in causes like abortion and environmentalism.

Next, there are a class of voters whom we might call the “Robert Rubin Democrats.” Well-heeled, culturally and economically influential, their votes do not matter as much as their checkbooks.

Finally, there is the so-called white working class. Socioeconomically downscale whites have been trending Republican since the 1960s, but this bloc remains important in Democratic presidential politics, especially in the Ohio River Valley.

In the 2008 battle with Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton won Latinos and the white working class overwhelmingly. She lost black voters overwhelmingly and liberal whites by a good margin. She split the unions and the Robert Rubin Democrats. Importantly, her coalition was probably large enough to win, had she run a better campaign. Obama’s victory among pledged delegates was a scant 127 out of a total of 3,424. His entire margin of victory rested upon his superior organization of low-turnout caucus states like Idaho and Maine, where Clinton’s potential coalition was probably stronger. So, assuming that Team Clinton learns the rules of its own party this time around, a would-be challenger will actually have to build a bigger coalition than Obama’s.

Moreover, recent polling on the race has indicated that African Americans are inclined to support Clinton in 2016. Furthermore, the moneyed party donors look pretty well unanimous. For instance, Hollywood bigshot David Geffen supported Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in 2008, but this time around looks set to go with Clinton.

So where do the potential Clinton challengers stand in relation to the Democratic electorate? Can any of them hope to cobble together a coalition that can challenge Clinton’s? Let’s take each in turn.

A Beltway fixture for more than 40 years, Vice President Joe Biden lacks much of an electoral bond with any Democratic constituency group. He could poach some of Clinton’s white working-class vote and raise some cash from Wall Street, but it is hard to see him breaking through.

Senators Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont could both play effectively to upscale white liberals; as a woman, Warren might attract some of the voters Clinton would otherwise win for identity-based reasons. Still, both would scare the bejesus out of Wall Street, where Democrats go to subsidize their anti-Wall Street demagoguery. And it is hard to see how either would have appeal for minority voters.

Former senator Jim Webb of Virginia and former governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana might attract the white working class, but the power of Bill Clinton to appeal to these voters cannot be overestimated. It is hard, too, to see how they would win over minority voters or raise substantial sums from wealthy Democrats.

What about Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York? He might raise substantial money, but who in the Clinton coalition would bolt for him? Ditto Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland.

That leaves two primary concerns for Team Clinton. The first is Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick. As an African American, he would be a threat to Clinton with the black vote, which would virtually guarantee a real race. And he might be able to raise substantial money; it is no coincidence that in the last 26 years, Massachusetts has supplied 3 of the 10 nonincumbent major party nominees.

The other concern for Team Clinton would be an interactive effect amongst these candidates. Suppose, for instance, that Schweitzer, Patrick, and Warren all attracted significant support from their electoral bases, at Clinton’s expense. That scenario might be chaotic, and thus jeopardize Clinton’s path to the nomination. This would not be unprecedented in Democratic politics; something similar happened in 1976, 1988, and 1992, although in none of those instances was a candidate as strong a frontrunner as Clinton will probably be.

In the end, Clinton’s greatest advantage might be the continued political weakness of Obama. History is not on the side of the Democrats as they try to win the White House for a third consecutive term. A party has only done so once in the postwar era—in 1988, when Ronald Reagan’s job approval was in the mid-50s by Election Day. Currently, Obama’s is mired in the mid-40s. Yet Clinton has a personal reputation that might transcend Obama’s unpopularity, and she polls extremely well at the moment. So long as that continues, risk-averse Democrats of all demographic stripes might be inclined to put aside their internecine battle to prevent a Republican victory, something they all equally oppose.

None of this is to claim that Clinton is an objectively strong candidate. She manifestly is not; otherwise she would be president right now. But objectivity does not matter when you are battling for the nomination. Everything is relative to where your party stands in the public mind and where you stand in relation to the other candidates seeking nomination. Right now, both of these factors conspire to make Hillary Clinton the odds-on favorite for 2016.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 29, 2014, 08:25:03 AM
"It won't be Hillary"

Doug,

I propose a bet.  I think it will be Hillary.

 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 29, 2014, 08:27:35 AM
Just to be perfectly clear, are we talking the nomination or the presidency here?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on May 29, 2014, 08:42:00 AM
If Trey Gowdy is allowed to do his job effectively as chairman of this select committee on Benghazi, Hillary will be destroyed as a potential candidate.  We can only hope.
Title: The 2016 presidential candidate we need
Post by: bigdog on May 29, 2014, 07:03:11 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-the-2016-presidential-candidate-we-need/2014/05/23/77d599ae-e202-11e3-9743-bb9b59cde7b9_story.html?wprss=rss_george-will

From the article:

So, sensible voters might embrace someone who announced his 2016 candidacy this way:

“I am ambling — running suggests unseemly ardor — for president. It is axiomatic that anyone who nowadays will do what is necessary in order to become president thereby reveals character traits, including delusions of adequacy and obsessive compulsive disorder, that should disqualify him or her from proximity to powers concentrated in the executive branch. Therefore, my campaign will initially consist of driving around the Obnoxiously Entitled Four — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — trying to interest their 3.8 percent of America’s population in a minimalist president.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 30, 2014, 04:18:15 AM
"Just to be perfectly clear, are we talking the nomination or the presidency here?"

I meant the Democratic nomination.

As for the Presidency, at this point there is no one on the right who appears to have what it will take to beat her. 

And the Republicans party as a whole is wandering in the wilderness.   I fear we will have another Dole, McCain, or Romneyesque like underwhelming candidate.

Compare the Republican party hodgepodge patchwork to the Democrat/Clinton machine.

She will win big the women vote.  Don't believe that then think Black vote and Obama.  No matter how bad Obama is the Blacks are married to him.  Same for the gals and Hillary.  Especially most younger women and definitely ***all*** single mothers.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Gov. Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on June 16, 2014, 05:51:09 PM
My favorite political reporter, Eliana Johnson, covering Scott Walker's visit with donors:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/380452/scott-walker-gets-ready-eliana-johnson

JUNE 16, 2014 4:00 AM
Scott Walker Gets Ready
The Wisconsin governor meets donors — in Chris Christie’s territory.
By Eliana Johnson

Scott Walker is already thinking about how to defeat Hillary Clinton. “You gotta move it from a personality race, because if it’s a personality race, you got a third Clinton term,” the Wisconsin governor told a lunchtime crowd of about 30 last Tuesday assembled at the Lakewood, N.J., home of Rich Roberts, one of his biggest financial backers. “The only way we win that election is to transform her personality to Washington versus the rest of us. Senator Clinton is all about Washington, everything about her is all about Washington.”

Walker is up for reelection in November — his third time on the ballot in four years, he likes to point out — but it is almost certainly his presidential ambitions that brought him to the Orthodox Jewish enclave of Lakewood, where he toured the town’s yeshiva and lunched with Roberts and his friends. Roberts has always donated to Republicans, but after selling his pharmaceutical company for $800 million in 2012, he began pouring a lot more money into the coffers of GOPers, including Walker, Senator Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Senator Rand Paul (Ky.), and former Florida congressman Allen West.

With Walker at his side, Roberts recounted receiving threatening e-mails after donating $50,000 to ward off Walker’s recall from the governorship. “With three days to go until the election, now I’m receiving all these threats, so what am I going to do? I wired him another $50,000,” Roberts said to laughter and applause.
As Walker shook hands, posed for pictures, and spoke to the group gathered in Roberts’s dining room and an adjoining room — men and women separated by a wall, as is sometimes customary among Orthodox Jews — the broad outlines of a campaign platform were clear. In a 20-minute speech and a question-and-answer session that followed, he touted his expansion of school vouchers to religious institutions, cited his victory on tort reform, and recounted staring down Wisconsin’s public-sector unions and the protesters who stormed the state on their behalf.

You could see him taking subtle shots at his potential rivals. The governor took a swipe at his friend Chris Christie on Christie’s home turf, touting his own success reducing property taxes in Wisconsin after a decade of steady increases. New Jersey’s astronomical property taxes are notorious, and Christie, who has a full-blown budget crisis on his hands right now, has done little to address the problem.

On foreign policy, Walker positioned himself firmly in the establishment camp, dismissing arguments that Republican voters want to see the United States reduce its engagement with the world. “I don’t believe that,” he said. Without naming him specifically, he rejected the idea that Kentucky senator Rand Paul has captured the hearts and minds of Republican voters on matters of foreign policy. “I believe fundamentally the reason why many young voters are suspect about foreign policy and the wars and many things like that is that they just haven’t been properly administered,” he said.

Walker also threw some elbows at Washington Republicans, criticizing them for harping on issues like the debt and the deficit without offering a positive vision for the future. “We have to be optimistic,” he said. He pointed to a particular senator who “constantly talks about how horrible the debt is.” Walker said that, while he shares the sentiment, the issue has limited popular appeal. At times, he said that listening to the senator harping on it makes him “want to slit my wrists because I’m just like, ‘My God, this is so awful, I cannot believe this.’”

The Obama administration, of course, came in for the harshest judgments. Walker accused the president of relying on his “​political shop”​ to make decisions of national and global import. He cited the release of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl in exchange for five high-profile Taliban prisoners: “I think what happened with the exchange — remember that movie years ago, Wag the Dog?” He fears, he said, that Obama’s political advisers — trying to cope with the political flak over the ongoing scandal at the Department of Veterans Affairs — jumped at the opportunity to make the exchange happen, without clearing the decision with the secretaries of state and defense, who would have put the brakes on such a deal.

As Walker was garnering applause from the lunch crowd, the aides he had in tow were getting less positive feedback. Though operating on friendly turf, they acted skittish, guarded, and unfriendly. An event organizer complained that the governor’s team was dismissive and difficult to deal with, and that she found it nearly impossible to get Walker on the phone with his host.

Since Walker rose to national prominence when he faced down the unions in 2011, Republican donors have admired his steeliness, his calm, and his quiet resolve. But they have privately wondered whether he has the star power and political judgment necessary to succeed on the presidential level. This event offered a small sample size, but maybe the donors also need to wonder about his team. After all, Walker was less than 40 miles from Trenton, where the man who just six months ago seemed to have an inside track for front-runner status in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination had his fortunes reversed by his own aides.

Walker brought a national message to this gathering at a top donor’s home, an indication of the seriousness of his presidential ambitions.​ For the time being, Hillary Clinton is sucking up all the media oxygen. For three days last week, the Drudge Report featured a photograph of a pregnant Chelsea Clinton in leather pants over a headline about the $600,000 salary she earned at NBC News. The low-key Wisconsin governor is a stark contrast to that flashiness, and he is hoping a wholesome Midwesterner becomes Hillary Clinton’s worst political nightmare.

— Eliana Johnson is a political reporter for National Review Online.
Title: AP/ Washington Post Debunked! Prosecutors: Gov. Walker part of criminal scheme
Post by: DougMacG on June 20, 2014, 09:02:52 AM
Prosecutors: Gov. Walker part of criminal scheme
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/prosecutors-gov-walker-part-of-criminal-scheme/2014/06/19/6b8de66c-f7db-11e3-8118-eae4d5b48c7d_story.html?wpisrc=al_comboPN_p

Debunked:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/06/the-latest-scott-walker-smear-debunked.php

POSTED ON JUNE 19, 2014 BY JOHN HINDERAKER
THE LATEST SCOTT WALKER SMEAR, DEBUNKED
Democrats are giddy over the unsealing of “secret” documents that charge Scott Walker’s recall campaign with illegal coordination with outside conservative groups. To name just a few: USA Today: “Prosecutors: Wis. Gov. Scott Walker in criminal scheme.” Associated Press: “Prosecutors: Gov. Walker part of criminal scheme.” Washington Post: “How the State of Wisconsin alleges Scott Walker aides violated the law, in 1 chart.”

If you didn’t know better, you might think this is a big story, highly damaging to one of America’s most successful governors. In fact, the current frenzy merely demonstrates the laziness and bias of reporters who don’t understand the events they write about.

Here is what is going on: a group of partisan local prosecutors launched a never-ending “John Doe investigation” into essentially every conservative group in the state of Wisconsin. The “investigation” is a scandal, a naked effort to shut down conservative speech. Federal Judge Rudolph Randa described how the investigation proceeded in an Order dated May 6, 2014:

Early in the morning of October 3, 2013, armed officers raided the homes of R.J. Johnson, WCFG advisor Deborah Jordahl, and several other targets across the state. ECF No. 5-15, O‘Keefe Declaration, ¶ 46. Sheriff deputy vehicles used bright floodlights to illuminate the targets‘ homes. Deputies executed the search warrants, seizing business papers, computer equipment, phones, and other devices, while their targets were restrained under police supervision and denied the ability to contact their attorneys. Among the materials seized were many of the Club‘s records that were in the possession of Ms. Jordahl and Mr. Johnson. The warrants indicate that they were executed at the request of GAB investigator Dean Nickel.

On the same day, the Club‘s accountants and directors, including O‘Keefe, received subpoenas demanding that they turn over more or less all of the Club‘s records from March 1, 2009 to the present. The subpoenas indicated that their recipients were subject to a Secrecy Order, and that their contents and existence could not be disclosed other than to counsel, under penalty of perjury. The subpoenas’ list of advocacy groups indicates that all or nearly all right-of-center groups and individuals in Wisconsin who engaged in issue advocacy from 2010 to the present are targets of the investigation.

The case in which Judge Randa ruled was brought by the Club For Growth and Eric O’Keefe. Plaintiffs alleged that the purported investigation was in reality an unconstitutional infringement of their First Amendment rights, intended to deter the expression of conservative speech. Judge Randa agreed. In his May 6 Order, he found that the partisan “investigation” had no legal basis:

The defendants are pursuing criminal charges through a secret John Doe investigation against the plaintiffs for exercising issue advocacy speech rights that on their face are not subject to the regulations or statutes the defendants seek to enforce. This legitimate exercise of O‘Keefe‘s rights as an individual, and WCFG‘s rights as a 501(c)(4) corporation, to speak on the issues has been characterized by the defendants as political activity covered by Chapter 11 of the Wisconsin Statutes, rendering the plaintiffs a subcommittee of the Friends of Scott Walker and requiring that money spent on such speech be reported as an in-kind campaign contribution. This interpretation is simply wrong.

Judge Randa analyzed the law as it relates to campaign finance. He noted that the conservative groups denied any coordination, and their denials appear to be well-founded. But, in any event, their activities were constitutionally protected and cannot be the basis of a criminal investigation:

It is undisputed that O‘Keefe and the Club engage in issue advocacy, not express advocacy or its functional equivalent. Since § 11.01(16)’s definition of “political purposes” must be confined to express advocacy, the plaintiffs cannot be and are not subject to Wisconsin‘s campaign finance laws by virtue of their expenditures on issue advocacy.

However, the defendants argue that issue advocacy does not create a free-speech “safe harbor” when expenditures are coordinated between a candidate and a third-party organization. Barland at 155 (citing Fed. Election Comm’n v. Colo. Republican Fed. Campaign Comm., 533 U.S. 431, 465 (2001)); see also Republican Party of N.M. v. King, 741 F.3d 1089, 1103 (10th Cir. 2013). O‘Keefe and the Club maintain that they did not coordinate any aspect of their communications with Governor Walker, Friends of Scott Walker, or any other candidate or campaign, and the record seems to validate that assertion. However, the Court need not make that type of factual finding because — once again — the phrase “political purposes” under Wisconsin law means express advocacy and coordination of expenditures for issue advocacy with a political candidate does not change the character of the speech. Coordination does not add the threat of quid pro quo corruption that accompanies express advocacy speech and in turn express advocacy money. Issue advocacy money, like express advocacy money, does not go directly to a political candidate or political committee for the purpose of supporting his or her candidacy. Issue advocacy money goes to the issue advocacy organization to provide issue advocacy speech. A candidate‘s coordination with and approval of issue advocacy speech, along with the fact that the speech may benefit his or her campaign because the position taken on the issues coincides with his or her own, does not rise to the level of “favors for cash.” Logic instructs that there is no room for a quid pro quo arrangement when the views of the candidate and the issue advocacy organization coincide.

Judge Randa concluded that the Club For Growth was likely to prevail on the merits, and he issued an order directing the partisan prosecutors to cease their unconstitutional investigation:

Therefore, for all of the foregoing reasons, the plaintiffs are likely to succeed on their claim that the defendants’ investigation violates their rights under the First Amendment, such that the investigation was commenced and conducted “without a reasonable expectation of obtaining a valid conviction.” Kugler v. Helfant, 421 U.S. 117, 126 n.6 (1975); see also Collins v. Kendall Cnty., Ill., 807 F.2d 95, 101 (7th Cir. 1986); Wilson v. Thompson, 593 F.2d 1375, 1387 n.22 (5th Cir. 1979).

Judge Randa’s conclusion is politely phrased, but understand what he is saying: the partisan prosecutors are so obviously wrong on the law that they could not have had a reasonable expectation of convicting anyone of anything. Their so-called investigation was in fact mere harassment, intended to chill the exercise of First Amendment rights by conservatives.

The next stage involved procedural maneuvering that I won’t try to explain. The prosecutor defendants appealed to the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals and argued that Judge Randa lacked jurisdiction to order them to terminate their faux investigation. The Court of Appeals issued an order to the effect that Judge Randa would need to make a finding that the defendants’ appeal was frivolous in order to retain jurisdiction. That resulted in another Order, dated May 8, 2014, in which Judge Randa described the discredited prosecutors’ appeal as “the height of frivolousness.” He continued:

To be clear, the Court is absolutely convinced that the defendants’ attempt to appeal this issue is a frivolous effort to deprive the Court of its jurisdiction to enter an injunction.

An appellate judge has now ordered certain pleadings in the case to be unsealed, an order to which the Club For Growth did not object. The hysterical accusations against Scott Walker that the Associated Press, the Washington Post and others are now gleefully celebrating are simply the unfounded assertions that the prosecutors made in a failed effort to justify their partisan investigation. They are precisely the allegations that have been resoundingly rejected by the federal judge who has presided over the case and who has found the defendants’ investigation to be a naked violation of the conservative groups’ constitutional rights.

So the reporters who are now trumpeting the discredited prosecutors’ assertions either have no understanding of the case, or they are part of the partisan witch hunt that gave rise to the unconstitutional investigation in the first place.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on June 20, 2014, 09:18:22 AM
The fact that the Republican Party leadership is NOT trumpeting Scott Walker's spectacular success story re: Wisconsin's budget speaks volumes.  The Republican leadership is interested only in the status quo in Washington.  Walker's success ought to be shouted from the mountaintops at every opportunity by every nationally-prominent Republican as a model of the success of conservative fiscal policy.

It isn't being done.  Not by Paul Ryan - John Boehner - Cantor (good riddance) - and certainly not by the new majority leader Kevin McCarthy, who is nothing more than another disgusting sycophant for Boehner.  It' not only the left that wants to destroy Walker and his reputation - it's his own party.  Smaller government is fundamentally opposed by the leadership of both parties now.  It threatens their personal interests.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 22, 2014, 10:32:41 AM
Agree 100%.  The control of the Party by the establishment financed by lobbyists and the Rove crowd is on stage for all to behold.

I agree we need candidates who can win but that doesn't mean win by being a Democrat on many issues.  What good is that?   We need good mouthpieces.  Right now few of the leaders are able to articulate meaningfully.   I don't know why they can't get it.   The answer is they are bought and paid for.

Batt who beat Cantor has a good mouthpiece.  I am impressed by him and I see potential in him.

Rubio is coming back.  Yet he has to do a better job of reaching the middle group more.  Can't be done just with platitudes.

Not when up against cold hard cash bribes.
Title: Golderberg: Operation Weak-Sphinctered Orangutan Commence!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2014, 02:34:13 PM


Elizabeth Warren: A Clarification

So the other night before Special Report Charles Krauthammer sang "Rapper's Delight" perfectly. He did say that while he loves the old-school hip hop, his real passion is for GWAR. But none of that is important right now, and besides, what happens in the green room stays in the green room.

That same night, I went on a bit of a rant about Hillary Clinton and how she's a pretty awful politician. I then concluded by saying something I wish I could re-phrase. I said: "And if I were Elizabeth Warren, I would jump in the race today because she is an authentic, truth-telling kind of politician and it would cause utter panic in the Clinton camp."

In response to this my Twitter feed exploded. At the Cleveland talk, the last question was a dyspeptic inquiry into why on earth I would compliment someone like Warren. Michael Graham drove all night from Boston just so he could set fire to a bag of Tom Friedman columns on China (if you know what I mean) on my doorstep.

So look. Here's the deal. I stand by what I said, but I wish I'd said it better. Yes, Liz Warren speaks with a forked tongue about her noble Indian heritage. Yes, I have
huge problems with her. But my point is that she would create more problems for Hillary — and that would be awesome. Indeed, that's what my column is about today.
If Warren jumped into the race, it would mess up the Clinton's delicate plans like a drunk orangutan with irritable bowel syndrome in a wedding-gown shop. The whole feminist argument behind Hillary's campaign would come apart like something that comes apart in a really funny way ("Dude, how hungover are you?" — The Couch). She would get all kinds of money from left-wing fat cats and the hardcore grassroots crowd. An early Warren candidacy would force Hillary to get in the race earlier than planned if she's going to run. Hillary couldn't stay a "private citizen" above the fray and simultaneously criticize Warren. If she criticizes Warren, she gets into a mess similar to the one she got into when she tried to criticize Obama in 2008. The base loves Warren -- perhaps not as much as they loved Obama, but enough so that Hillary attacks their hero at her peril. Criticizing Warren also exposes Hillary for what she really is. And the sooner Hillary is seen as what she is — a (bad) politician — the sooner her poll numbers go down. Moreover, according to game theory (or maybe not, I just think that sounds cool), a Warren candidacy will have the added incentive of encouraging other Democrats to enter into the race. The moment Warren gives her announcement speech on C-SPAN, aides to Joe Biden will run into his office and shout "Mr. Vice President, I think you should put down your crayons and see this." Andrew Cuomo will stop midway through cutting off the head of Bill de Blasio's favorite horse and have to decide if he's going to get in. Every candidate who gets in encourages more candidates and soon what was supposed to be a Hillary coronation ceremony becomes the Democratic-party equivalent of the fight scene from Anchorman. It's ragnarok, baby!

Now, it's true, I'm being a bit Leninist here. I want to heighten the contradictions, and I do think worse is better when it comes to the Democrats. But that doesn't mean my column or my comments are, in the words of one Twitter follower, a "false-flag operation." I do think Warren taps into a very real populist trend. And while she's probably to the left of Clinton on many issues, I have to say in my gut, I'd rather Warren as president than Clinton. The good news, however, is that I think Warren would be a bad candidate and would lose handily in the general election. So, where's the downside?

Operation Weak-Sphinctered Orangutan Commence!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 01, 2014, 10:19:24 AM


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/381344/elizabeth-warren-obama-2016-jonah-goldberg
Title: 2016 Presidential - Five Dems who should run (against Hillary), National Journal
Post by: DougMacG on July 03, 2014, 07:11:27 AM
Warren, O'Malley, Schweitzer and Hickenlooper didn't make this list.  The list is every bit as good (or bad) as other recent years, Kerry, Gephart, Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, Howard Dean, etc.  Some of these are a little weak (Claire McCaskill?), but the point is, there are always names out there and someone rises to the challenge.
BTW, who says Hillary is running?  Lol.
--------------------------------------------------------
5 Democrats Who Should Run Against Hillary Clinton
The former secretary of State could be vulnerable in a Democratic primary, but only if qualified candidates decide to challenge her.

By Josh Kraushaar
July 2, 2014
It's been remarkable to see how quickly the Democratic Party has coalesced around Hillary Clinton as its expected 2016 nominee, despite clear vulnerabilities she's telegraphed during her book tour. Clinton brings undeniable assets to the table—she'd be the first female president, the Clinton brand is still strong, her fundraising is unmatched—but her recent exposure on the book tour has demonstrated her political limitations as well.

I've outlined some of them in past columns: She's not a particularly good campaigner; she's skilled at staying on message but tone-deaf to the way comments about her wealth could backfire among an economically anxious public. With the threat of terrorism rising and increased turbulence in Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq, Clinton could find that her record as secretary of State is a major vulnerability in an election where foreign policy is looming as a major issue. Most important, she tied herself to President Obama by accepting his offer to run State, assuming that his coattails would be awfully valuable down the road. Now, with Obama's approval ratings tanking, scandals abounding, and a new Quinnipiac poll showing a plurality of voters consider him the "worst president" since World War II, Clinton knows she needs to keep some distance from Obama while maintaining the excitement of his base. That's not a great place to be.

Her biggest asset is the fact that the entire Democratic Party infrastructure is behind her, seemingly resigned to her vulnerabilities but hopeful about her potential. Even progressives who are nervous about her Wall Street connections are merely hoping to nudge her leftward, and not aggressively challenge her with an actual candidate. With a lackluster Democratic bench, it's hard to find many alternatives even willing to throw their names out there. And let's be clear: Former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer, whose loose lips would sink a campaign before it launched, and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, throwing in his name as a protest candidate, don't qualify.

That doesn't mean there aren't credible candidates who, on paper, could mount a serious challenge. With anti-Washington sentiment running high, this is a promising opportunity for an outsider to run and surprise. True, they don't seem to want to run, whether from fear of the Clinton machine, a desire to avoid challenging someone who might make history, or simply an assumption that 2016 isn't a great year for Democrats.
But the candidates exist. Here are some prospects who would normally be touted for higher office but have acquiesced to Hillary Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 election.

1. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia

Kaine was one of the first Democratic officials to jump on the Obama bandwagon, and he has a resume that normally would be the envy of his fellow pols: swing-state governor; Democratic National Committee chairman; senator elected on Obama's coattails against a former GOP presidential prospect, George Allen. Kaine was on the very short list of potential Obama running mates. If this were the resume of a Republican candidate, it would vault him to the top of the list of 2016 front-runners.

But instead, Kaine took the unusual step in May of endorsing Clinton before she even announced her candidacy, perhaps angling for a Cabinet post over pursuing any possible national ambitions. Maybe being a white man in the Democratic Party is now a vulnerability in the Obama era, but Kaine certainly could score chits as an early Obama supporter who helped swing his state the president's way. And his Midwestern roots, authentic personality (in sharp contrast to Clinton), and executive experience would all be strong selling points to a national audience.

2. Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

One of the obvious, yet underappreciated, factors in Obama's upset of Clinton was how powerful a role race played in the 2008 presidential primaries. Clinton had close ties to the African-American community from her days in the White House, but once it became clear that Obama was a serious challenger, he overwhelmingly carried the black vote in nearly every primary state where it mattered.

Why couldn't that dynamic repeat itself in 2016? Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is leaving office, and he is a close ally of Obama's. (Obama even touted him as a prospective candidate.) Unlike the 2008 version of Obama, Patrick boasts executive experience as a two-term governor who had to deal with one of the biggest crises during the Obama presidency—the Boston Marathon bombings. Unlike Mitt Romney before launching his first presidential campaign, Patrick scored solid approval ratings in his last year in office (53 percent in a January 2014 MassINC poll).

Patrick recently said he worries about how Clinton is being viewed as the inevitable nominee, but he hasn't made any moves of his own to suggest he's running. But if he could put a credible team together, he'd be a much more threatening challenger than, say, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

3. Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri

In a normal year, a female media-savvy, red-state prosecutor who defied the odds to win a second term in the Senate would be at the top of many Democratic wish lists. But like Kaine, this early Obama supporter was one of the first elected officials to sign up with Clinton's nascent campaign, taking herself out of the conversation. Part of her motive was to ingratiate herself with Team Clinton, who placed McCaaskill on Hillary's "enemies list" after she said she didn't want her daughter near the former president in a Meet the Press interview (as an Obama surrogate).

Instead of sucking up to the Clintons, why not challenge Hillary? Representing a populist state, McCaskill would be well positioned to challenge Clinton on her wealth, ties to corporations, and perceived disconnect from the middle class. Plus, McCaskill's long-term prospects in the Senate aren't great, assuming she doesn't face Todd Akin again in 2018.

4. Former Sen. Russell Feingold of Wisconsin

Where have you gone, Russ Feingold? The former Wisconsin senator and campaign finance reform scold has virtually disappeared from the political arena. Like Clinton, he's now serving in the State Department—as the special envoy for the African Great Lakes region and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Like Elizabeth Warren, Feingold would be able to rally progressives around his campaign but he could potentially have more appeal to male voters, a demographic where the party has gotten crushed in the Obama era. Unlike Clinton (and Warren), Feingold took a lone stand for same-sex marriage in 2006, when most elected Democrats opposed such legislation. He's been a longtime critic of outside groups' campaign spending, which has been a rallying cry for liberal Democrats in the age of the super PAC.

Feingold has always marched to the beat of his own drum, and it would be hard to see him prevailing over the better-organized Clinton. But he could persuasively assert he was ahead of the curve on the issues animating today's Democratic Party, a powerful argument for the grassroots base. Indeed, he'd be in a situation similar to that of another reform-minded former Democratic senator, Bill Bradley, who challenged a sitting vice president and nearly won the New Hampshire primary.

5. Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon

Winning two terms in an increasingly Republican red state—he ran 9 points ahead of Obama in 2008 and 11 points ahead in 2012—Nixon is one of the most accomplished Democratic governors in the country. The Kansas City Star's Steve Kraske dubbed Nixon the "Teddy Roosevelt of Missouri—vigorous, a champion of the outdoors, constantly touring all corners of the state more than any chief executive in state history." He worked with Republicans to pass comprehensive jobs legislation, cut spending, and passed ahead-of-the-curve legislation incentivizing college graduates to specialize in high-demand health care fields. Nixon won high praise for his handling of the aftermath of the tornadoes that devastated Joplin. And he's won over some social conservatives by allowing restrictions on late-term abortions and reducing the age for residents to purchase a concealed-weapons permit. But he's also expanded Medicaid and focused on boosting spending for education.

In short, his positions on social issues would probably be untenable in today's Democratic Party, where moderates are becoming as extinct as their counterparts in the Republican Party. And Nixon has shown no interest in national office, knowing the near-insurmountable challenges he'd face in a primary.

In 1992, when Democrats nominated a centrist Southern governor as their presidential nominee, it was a move born out of weakness, with party leaders desperately seeking to moderate their image and initially holding little hope they could oust the sitting president. At the onset of the primary, the field was wide open, with the party's biggest-name contenders (Mario Cuomo, Al Gore) opting not to run. The situation could well be reversed in 2016: Democrats acting like they're in a stronger position than the reality, opting for a coronation instead of a contested primary, and ignoring the political logic of nominating an electable moderate outsider who can expand the party's coalition. In 1992's more ideologically diverse Democratic Party, Nixon would be at the top of many Democratic wish lists. But we're still stuck in Clintonworld.
Title: 2016 Presidential, Obamas and Valerie Jarrett back Elizabeth Warren, not Hillary
Post by: DougMacG on July 07, 2014, 03:59:36 AM
http://nypost.com/2014/07/06/this-means-warren-obama-backs-challenger-to-hillary/

Ed Klein, author of Blood Feud.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 07, 2014, 05:28:04 AM
...when the next presidential election rolls around, Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory will be as long ago as D-Day was at that time.

http://theweek.com/article/index/264270/rand-paul-marco-rubio-and-the-new-era-of-conservative-policy-ideas
Title: Morris: Lessons to learn from Romney's nomination
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 26, 2014, 11:30:16 AM


http://www.dickmorris.com/ended-nominating-romney-lessons-learn-dick-morris-tv-history-video/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: prediction
Post by: ccp on July 26, 2014, 03:44:36 PM
Nominees for the Democratic ticket will be:

Hillary for Prez
Elizabeth Warren for V Prez

Can only one imagine the liberal and their MSM hoopla over this?

They will trumpet this as the seminal turning point in human civilization.
Title: Re: prediction
Post by: DougMacG on July 27, 2014, 03:02:25 PM
Nominees for the Democratic ticket will be:

Hillary for Prez
Elizabeth Warren for V Prez

Can only one imagine the liberal and their MSM hoopla over this?
They will trumpet this as the seminal turning point in human civilization.

Very possibly right. So many campaign slogans are possible with those two, perhaps "unify by polarizing".  I am still betting against Hillary being the nominee, but it occurs to me that if nominated she might pick Biden!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: MikeT on August 02, 2014, 11:15:38 AM
Amended from the Ben Carson Thread...

I think Carson could be a good candidate but I'd rather see him as surgeon general...?  I think he and Paul are both *potentially* weak on FP, at least looking at experience, but that fact by itself may make them attractive to Dem's/ Indepedents.  Carson is so damn *reasonable* sounding in a dispassionate way.

Nobody is asking, but my Dream Team for the Fantasy Election League at present would be a Cruz-Paul ticket with Allen West as Sec Def, Maybe Condi Rice back as Sec of State if she would do it (or even VP, saving Rand Paul as majority leader).  Gowdy or Gohmert for AG, or Gowdy for Ag.  Mike Lee for Speaker.  Sec. of State, that's a tough one... the world is a mess right now and it would be a tough thankless job.  Romney as Secretary of Commerce.  I'm not sure who on the conservative side of the field has the most FP experience... Dare I say McCain?  ON second thought Romney would be pretty good at Sec State.

Hey look, that's like a 60% plus minority ticket...   Only because I'm white and 'hate' minorities.

Any body care to offer a differnet line-up?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2014, 12:36:31 PM
Carson lacks political, foreign policy, and executive experience.  Those are three big gaps!  He might be good though as a vice-presidential candidate with an assignment of taking on Obamacare.

Foreign policy remains a minefield for all TP/conservatives/Reps.  We criticize the limpness of Obama but to run on strength is to be rejected as sounding like Bush.  If we run on isolationist tendencies (RP) then we have surrendered both America in the world , , , and a political weakness in the Dems.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: MikeT on August 04, 2014, 12:03:37 PM
I think you're right.  I confess I have been somewhat puzzled by Carson's meteoric rise on that basis.  I think he is highly, highly intelligent and has both a future role with the conservative movement and serious **potential**.    I don't know if he's 'presidential' or if he would not merely be a 'conservative's' version of Obama, i.e. an Ideologue with (in our case) the 'right' ideology but virtually no governing, diplomatic, or legislative experience.  But at this point, I also confess that I am starting to see that somehwat as a 'plus' at least from the Conservative side.  I also think it's precisely that 'non-government' association that is at least partly behind the initial Obama-phenomena, at least and especially with independents.  

Carson has at least made clear that be both 'knows' and would abide by  the Constitution.  Which is saying something.

Cruz-Carson?

The FP gap is a definitive problem though, with the state of the world...  on the other hand, if we were merely to reasert our 'leadership' role in the world, I think (rather 'hope') things would sort of revert back to the natural order of things in teh Pre-Bush world.  The war is 'over' (at least 'for now', and at least 'as far as the American people, and our allies appear to be concerned').  So, the next president will have, I believe, at least **the opportunity** to reassert some sort of 'leader of the free world' role.   To what end, I'm not sure.

Regardless, I am solidly in the camp that believes it is high time for conservatives to stop pussy-footing around, and to run constructively on our strengths and values, and not on who is merely the closest-thing-we-have-to-a-Democrat.  Philosophically, it is a question of if you are trying to 'play for the middle' (Romney, McCain, Bush II, even, at least first term) or if you instead believe that conservatism can resonate with people (Reagan) and not simply be off-putting to enough of the populace to matter (Goldwater).

What I believe was the central 'kernel' that made Reagan 'great' was that he was a conservative at heart and a believer in conseervatism, but one who was walso illing to make senisble compromises in order to put the country first.   Personally, I think that is a central problem of our moment-- both sides, but especially the left have stopped playing 'for country' and only play for 'party' and 'power' nowadays-- which translates tactically into DIVIDING the country and playing one group against the other.

Can you imagine even a Tip O'Neil or Teddy Kennedy supporting an open border of the variety we have today?  I can't... maybe Kennedy.  I think they would have been run out on a rail by their constituents.  By which I mean the WWII-era (generationally) Kennedy Democrats (politically) who also (I believe) put country above party and who knew the ills of socialism and communism first hand.

The 'problem' with today's left is it that the party has been hijacked by hardcore socialists.  Of course, they say the same things about us.  But in my own life and experience, the Tea Party came AFTER (and therefore 'in response to') the country's most recent generational flirtation with the notion of 'free stuff for all'.  i.e. Speaking only for myself, my own politicization and graviation toward the Tea Party has been most especially a reaction AGAINST what I see as the increasingly emergent hardcore ideological socialism of the left.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential: Is Jim Webb running?
Post by: DougMacG on September 08, 2014, 07:50:40 AM
I'm sure everyone will say no, he can't mount a credible challenge, because Hillary is inevitable.  lol

A challenge from the right and from the left within the Democratic party would be good for Hillary, good for the party and good for the nation, IMHO.  Jump in Jim!

Any early endorsements?
http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2112.msg50643#msg50643

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-07/could-jim-webb-mount-credible-challenge-to-clinton

Jim Webb could be Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare.

The former one-term Virginia senator and Vietnam War veteran is making sounds about running for president as a Democrat. He was in Iowa last month; a New Hampshire trip may be in the offing, and he's giving a major speech at the National Press Club in two weeks.

He seems an improbable candidate. He has taken illiberal positions, was President Ronald Reagan's Navy secretary, has few relationships within the Democratic Party, and has no serious fundraising network.

What he does possess is a long-held and forceful opposition to U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya, and potentially Syria, as well as solid anti-Wall Street credentials. In Democratic primaries, these may be Clinton's greatest impediments to rallying a hard-core activist base.

In 2002, Webb warned of the perils of invading and occupying Iraq; he has been proven right by the violence and sectarian strife of the post-Saddam Hussein era. As a senator, Clinton voted for the war and supported it for years. She recently acknowledged she had been wrong.

As secretary of state, Clinton was the chief advocate in the Barack Obama administration for intervening against Muammar Qaddafi. When the Libyan dictator was toppled and killed in 2011, she thought it would be her signature foreign-policy achievement.

Webb, then a senator, adamantly opposed this venture. The U.S. has since withdrawn its personnel from Libya, and radical jihadists now occupy a compound belonging to the U.S. embassy.

Clinton recently said she disagreed with Obama's decision not to intervene in the Syrian civil war. Webb warns that the Syrian opposition includes not only elements friendly to the U.S., but also the radical Islamic State forces that have wreaked mayhem there and in Iraq, murdering thousands and beheading two American journalists. Syria, he has warned, is "Lebanon on steroids."

Clinton has close ties to Wall Street, a source of campaign funds for her and the Clinton Foundation. Since leaving office, she has received large speaking fees from hedge funds, private-equity companies and big banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Webb, 68, has long taken a populist, anti-Wall Street stance. In 2007, he delivered the Democratic response to President George W. Bush's State of the Union address. Webb declared that the health of American society should be measured "not with the numbers that come out of Wall Street, but with the living conditions that exist on Main Street."

He pushed a measure to slap a special tax on big bonuses paid out by Wall Street companies that received government assistance during the financial crisis. When it failed, he complained that Democrats, beholden to Wall Street, killed it.

If Webb decides to run -- fearlessness and unpredictability are his trademarks -- there's plenty of ammunition against him. He's against gun control, and he has made comments that angered feminists, many of whom consider Clinton a cause as well as a candidate, and environmentalists. He also has been involved in numerous personal controversies.

In a recent Virginia Senate debate, Republican Ed Gillespie sought to paint the moderate Democratic incumbent, Mark Warner, as too left, citing occasions when he didn't join Webb in voting along a more conservative line.

The maverick lawmaker had a few notable successes, passing a major veterans' education bill, putting criminal justice reform on the agenda, and calling for a pivot to Asia before Obama was elected. He has criticized executive overreach by both Bush and Obama.

A decorated war hero -- he received the Navy Cross for "extraordinary heroism" -- and author of nine books, he would run principally on the issues most likely to cut Clinton: opposition to an interventionist-centered foreign policy and softness toward Wall Street. He would bring more authenticity to these two issues than any other would-be Clinton challenger. In Iowa, he made no secret of his criticism of Clinton's tenure at State.

Clintonites will dismiss the Webb threat by pointing to his political weaknesses. But here's a safe bet: They will closely monitor his Sept. 23 Press Club speech.
Title: The Hill: 2016 Republican dark horses, Pence, Kasich, Carson, Bolton
Post by: DougMacG on September 08, 2014, 08:02:50 AM
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216862-the-2016-republican-dark-horses

1. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence
2. Ohio Gov. John Kasich
3. Dr. Ben Carson
4. Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton

Read about all four at the link. Kasich fizzeld quickly in 2000.  Their comments on Carson are similar to ours.  I think John Bolton is better suited to advise than be the lead voice.  Here is what they wrote about Indiana Gov. Mike Pence

PROS: Pence has left the door open to a potential run and could quickly become a fast rising favorite if he joins the fray.

He has a long track record of both social and fiscal conservatism, leading fights against abortion rights and government spending dating back to his time in Congress. The Indiana governor is well-known in Washington, with a solidly conservative record, while his time as governor gives him distance from the unpopular town.

“The most interesting of the [dark horse] candidates right now is Mike Pence,” said the Indiana-based Savage. “People are talking about him very seriously.”

CONS: GOP strategists privately say Pence isn’t sparkling on the stump and lacks a signature achievement as governor. Plus, it’s harder to generate headlines or build a national fundraising base from a mid-sized Midwestern state like Indiana. He’d also have to choose between running for president and running for reelection.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rock solid and un-flashy with chief executive governing experience might be just what we are looking for after the first 4 or 5 twists and turns in the Republican endorsement contest.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential: Meet the Dems, Martin O'Malley
Post by: DougMacG on September 16, 2014, 08:24:23 AM
Beating Hillary looks like a distraction to me.  Another 'fresh face' is going to pop out and haunt us with even more liberalism if the conservative side does not get its act together soon.

Wash Post covers the Gov of Maryland:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/if-he-runs-for-president-in-2016-martin-omalley-will-again-be-an-underdog/2014/09/15/d67dccce-39f0-11e4-bdfb-de4104544a37_story.html

O’Malley is stumping for fellow Democrats in battleground states and boning up on foreign policy at a time when no other Democrats are talking as openly about a White House bid.
Title: 2016 Presidential, Mike Huckabee
Post by: DougMacG on September 16, 2014, 08:27:40 AM
I'm no fan of Mike Huckabee for reasons stated last time around.  But it looks like he is running and will be a factor in the race.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/mike-huckabee-gears-up-for-2016-run/article/2553425
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 16, 2014, 09:11:28 AM
May I ask you to briefly restate your objections to him?  My impression from his FOX show is that he has much to recommend him, though I think he would lose against Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on September 16, 2014, 09:25:58 AM
May I ask you to briefly restate your objections to him?  My impression from his FOX show is that he has much to recommend him, though I think he would lose against Hillary.


http://michellemalkin.com/2009/11/29/violent-felon-granted-clemency-by-huckabee-now-sought-in-lakewood-wa-police-ambush/

Why I would never vote for him.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Huckabee
Post by: DougMacG on September 16, 2014, 12:05:54 PM
May I ask you to briefly restate your objections to him?  My impression from his FOX show is that he has much to recommend him, though I think he would lose against Hillary.

In general, I am looking for, and we desperately need, someone who comes from the right and can reach successfully to the center with our message and philosophy presented optimistically and persuasively.  Someone with core conservative values, especially on economic issues, who will be the voice and teacher of those to the center and to the country and the world.  My view of Huckabee is that he will lose because he is perceived as too conservative while in fact he is not conservative enough.  I think he would be a stronger conservative on the social issues, a southern preacher, at a time when most of the social issues are lost and we so need desperately to right our economic ship before it sinks.

GM gave an example of leniency turned fatal and blame shifting.  If we forgive one mistake or two, he still has an economic record. 

Cato beats him up pretty badly here: http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/huckabee-biggest-biggovernment-conservative

"If you liked George W. Bush’s brand of big-spending, big-government conservatism, you’ll love Mike Huckabee. ... As governor of Arkansas, Huckabee dramatically increased state spending. During his two-term tenure, spending increased by more than 65 percent — at three times the rate of inflation.  The number of government workers increased by 20 percent, and the state’s debt services increased by nearly $1 billion. Huckabee financed his spending binge with higher taxes. Under his leadership, the average Arkansan’s tax burden increased 47 percent, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, including increases in the state’s gas, sales, income, and cigarette taxes. He raised taxes on everything from groceries to nursing home beds."

There is no such thing as a big government conservative, and the federal government does not have the built-in constraints that a state has.

I think his support for the Fair Tax shows political naivete.  We can't get enough votes right now to even slow the rate of new tax increases, but we are going to suddenly get supermajorites in the House, Senate, and states to REPEAL the income tax amendment?  That is a strategy, repeal all taxes on all incomes, even billionaires?  It isn't going to happen.  That is loose talk for a pundit and out of bounds for a nominee, IMHO. 

Executive experience is on my wish list, but in spite of Bill Clinton winning in 1992, being Governor of Arkansas doesn't alone bring all the experience, clout and respect that is needed.  Also it was a while ago with no further executive experience since then.

I never saw him on Fox so I have missed out on his good qualities.  My sister lived in Arkansas while he was Governor and loved him.  He talks a good conservative game.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 16, 2014, 05:56:41 PM
Thank you for fleshing that out.

Title: Why Nice Guys Finish Last in Politics...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 17, 2014, 05:45:33 AM
Why Nice Guys Finish Last in Politics

Posted By David Horowitz On September 17, 2014 @ frontpagemag.com

To order David Horowitz’s new book, Take No Prisoners, click here.

Reprinted from Washington Times.

Republicans are going to dominate the midterm elections, but it would be a foolish gamble to count on them to win the 2016 presidential contest. Why is that? Democrats are now a party of the left (no more John Kennedys, no more Joe Liebermans). That means they are driven by ideology and not the pragmatic outlook that used to be the two-party norm.

Ideology soon disconnects you from reality, which is why Democrats will lose in November — that’s the downswing. During the upswing, though, ideological passion provides a sense of mission and hope that can win over gullible majorities.

In 2008, when Barack Obama promised to turn back the tides and fundamentally transform America, he took enough of the American people with him to become the 44th president of the United States. It was a baseless, deceptive, empty-headed hope that made him seem the answer to so many unfounded prayers. Mr. Obama was a lifelong anti-American radical and a world-class liar. He was not going to lead Americans into a post-racial bipartisan future as he promised. It has taken years for a majority of the American people to realize that.

Republicans will win the midterms because six years of radical policies have brought this country low — the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression; the worst unemployment and greatest expansion of people on the dole; an ongoing disaster to the health care system; the destruction of America’s borders; and a global power vacuum deliberately created by a leftist commander in chief, which has been filled by the greatest threat to American security since the onset of the Cold War.

Accordingly, in this election cycle the American people are fed up, and they’re going to turn out the party responsible. That is just this round, though, and there are two years until the next one — a lifetime, politically speaking. Mr. Obama is not an aberration, but a culmination of what has been happening to the Democratic Party during the last four decades. If Mr. Obama is prepared to lie to conceal his real agenda, so is the leadership of the Democratic Party. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a longtime advocate for America’s retreat, has suddenly emerged as a hawk on the Islamic State, as has Hillary Clinton, who presided over America’s catastrophic retreat. While Mr. Obama struggles to make the two sides of his mouth look like one, both Ms. Warren and Mrs. Clinton rush to disassociate themselves from his cowardly retreats. You can expect the Democrats to reposition themselves on many other fronts as well.

Going into the 2016 election, you can count on Republicans to stay “positive,” to emphasize policy, and above all, not to hit the Democrats where it hurts. You can also count on Democrats to do just the opposite. Because they always do.

Mike Tyson once said, “Everyone has a game plan until you punch them in the mouth.” Democrats have a massive punch in the mouth for Republicans, and it’s always the same punch. Republicans are painted as racists, sexists, homophobes, anti-poor people, selfish and uncaring. Note that this is a moral indictment. It defames the character of Republicans like the corporate predator and dog-abuser Mitt Romney.

The only answer to an attack like this is to attack Democrats with an equally potent indictment of their moral character. For example, Democrats are actually the party of racists — supporters of the lynch mob in Ferguson, Mo.; controllers of America’s inner cities; enemies of poor black and Hispanic children trapped in the public schools they control; and so forth. No Republican to my knowledge has ever called Democrats racists, yet the latter send their own kids to private schools while denying children who are poor, black and Hispanic the right to do so. How racist is that? Al Sharpton is the president’s chief adviser on race. Republicans will never lay a glove on him for these obscenities.

I have just published a book, “Take No Prisoners: The Battle Plan for Defeating the Left,” using these principles. I’m not holding my breath that any Republicans will listen, though. They are too intent on telling positive “stories,” proposing workable policies and pretending that people will give them a fair hearing despite the fact that their opposition is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to portray them as racists, women haters and enemies of the poor. How difficult is it to understand this: If you are perceived by voters as racist or even just selfish and uncaring, they are not going to have the same interest in your policy advice, as Mr. Romney found out in 2012.

Here is what Republicans need to understand to win: Politics is a street war, and there are no referees to maintain the rules — and the ones that infrequently pop up (such as CNN’s Candy Crowley during one of the last presidential debates) are there to bury you. Attack your opponents before they attack you. Attack them with a moral indictment; if well-executed, it will win the day.

And remember that even if you fail to do this to them, they will certainly do it to you. You can count on that.
Title: Jindal is a genius
Post by: ccp on September 17, 2014, 11:36:56 AM
He is several thoughts ahead of everyone else in the room.   Clift of course means this to disparage him but instead it gets her attention. 

Eleanor Clift on Bobby J:

Eleanor Clift

POLITICS  09.16.14
Bobby Jindal vs. ‘Science Denier’ Obama
The likely 2016 Republican White House hopeful says it’s liberals who get science wrong. But will anyone buy it?
Among the GOP’s presidential hopefuls for 2016, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal scores near the bottom, with just 3 percent support from New Hampshire voters in a CNN poll. But his poor showing is not for lack of trying, and the red meat he now tosses to the base is at least of a novel variety. On Tuesday, for example, he accused the Obama administration of being “science deniers,” a charge more commonly leveled at, rather than by, conservatives like Jindal.

As vice chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Jindal’s been traveling to key states, including Iowa and New Hampshire. He’s also been systematically unveiling policy proposals, like the shiny 47-page pamphlet on “Making America an Energy Superpower,” which graced every seat at a Tuesday breakfast in Washington where Jindal took questions from reporters.

A boy genius who graduated from Brown University at age 20 and turned down offers from Harvard Medical School and Yale Law School to pursue political science at Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar, the 43-year-old Jindal still has plenty of time to peak in his storied career. He says he’ll decide after November whether to run for president, and with that in mind, his facile mind and his agility with words were tested at the breakfast organized by The Christian Monitor.

Jindal called the Obama administration “science deniers” in his opening remarks. “Let the scientists debate and figure that out,” Jindal said when challenged to say where he stands on climate change, preferring to turn the question back on the administration for, in his view, denying science by refusing to green-light the Keystone Pipeline.

Asked if he personally believes the climate is changing, and Earth is warming, and human activity is at least partially responsible, Jindal resorted to the verbal gymnastics that characterized his responses to most questions. “The climate is always changing, it’s not controversial to say that,” he said. But he again wanted to “let the scientists decide” what’s causing those changes, adding that he hopes human activity is “not contributing” an increase in temperatures. In any event, he’s for “leaving it to the scientists.”

On the other hand, he agrees with conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer that “one doesn’t have to be a believer or a denier to say we should control emissions.” But he opposes the U.S. taking unilateral action and would withdraw from the United Nations Kyoto Protocol governing climate change. He points out that the U.S. exports 10 percent of the country’s coal production, which means that coal is getting burned somewhere.

“Simply exporting coal to other countries doesn’t do anything,” he said, concluding with his new favorite mantra: “Let the scientists debate and figure that out.”

The scientists are going to be plenty busy if there’s a Jindal administration.
The scientists are going to be plenty busy if there’s a Jindal administration. In the meantime, asked if he personally believes the theory of evolution explains the presence of life, he ducked, saying local schools should make the decision about what’s taught in their classrooms.

“As a father, I want my kids to be taught about evolution,” he said, while insisting that local schools should decide what kind of science or biology should be taught. In an exchange immediately after the breakfast, Jindal told The Daily Beast that his opposition to Common Core education standards is based on the same kind of thinking, that the federal government should not be imposing standards from Washington. Once an avid promoter of the Common Core, he has said it’s been “hijacked” by the Obama administration.

Whether Jindal is sincerely searching for alternative policies, or he’s engaging in the double talk common in politics, is hard to say. Maybe he’s doing both. As one of the GOP’s younger activists, he pioneered an idea that is gaining currency on the campaign trail among Republicans: advocating for the sale of over-the-counter birth control. “I do see this as becoming more common,” he said, noting that Republican candidates in tight races for the senate in Colorado and North Carolina have embraced the position. “The fact that the left reacted so loudly” told him it was working, Jindal said.

With control of the Senate up for grabs in November, this newfound support among Republicans for contraceptive access could blunt Democratic allegations that the GOP is in a “war on women.” Democrats counter that if contraceptives are sold over the counter, insurance companies would no longer have to cover the cost, which for some amounts to $600 a year for birth control pills. Jindal said all he’s doing is following the recommendations of doctors and medical associations, which say this is a safe product that can be offered over the counter without a prescription.

“It doesn’t stop a woman from getting a prescription from the doctor and insurance covering it,” he said. “This is giving an additional option, not taking it away.” He predicted that insurance companies would respond to market forces and the pressure from consumers to continue their coverage. He said it would be “cheaper” for insurance companies to cover contraceptives bought over the counter than having to pay for doctor visits and births.

A convert from Hinduism to Christianity, Jindal is making the issue of religious freedom a centerpiece of his appeal to the Republican primary electorate. He lauded the Hobby Lobby decision by the Supreme Court and said he and other social conservatives were “shocked” at the recent National Prayer Breakfast “to hear [Obama] talk about what’s happening overseas while ignoring what’s happening here at home.”

Jindal will have to elbow others aside in the crowded GOP space for those who argue religion has been sidelined, a belief that’s become almost a given in the current GOP. A better use of his political talents might be in the verbal gymnastics he’s so good at, and in squaring the circle of a Republican Party seeking a future when it is so divided on how it sees the present.
Title: 2016 Presidential: John Podhoretz on Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on November 19, 2014, 07:44:31 AM
Republican primary voters want "someone who reflects their values and beliefs, who’ll stand up for conservative principles — and who has proved he can win.
Walker appears to hit this trifecta."

Scott Walker was elected three times in a state Barack Obama carried twice.

He is the preferred choice mostly of people who have read about him and not seen or heard him.

Podhoretz:  "He has kept a relatively low national profile, appearing infrequently on TV. And for those who have heard him speak, the experience is not exactly transporting: He’s colorless and unexciting to watch."   http://nypost.com/2014/11/18/a-walker-16-boom-he-looks-great-on-paper/
------------------------------------------

I wish Walker had Rubio's charisma or that Rubio had Walker's executive experience.  Walker is just fine in front of the camera, articulate and business-like.  Is that what people will want?  Or will they want the Greek, styrofoam towers again?  The coming primary season is going to involve difficult choices and trade-offs.

We want to win the next election, and win on and with our principles, not win an election by running away from principles.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2014, 09:23:28 AM
Whoever it is must have what it takes to beat the Hillary, her machine, the Pravdas, and women voters who will vote for her because she is a woman.

Bland, competent, white male with good record will NOT be enough.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on November 19, 2014, 09:32:39 AM
Scott Walker is anything but bland.  He has produced SPECTACULAR results in Wisconsin, of all places - the bluest of blue states.  The Republican leadership ought to be crowing about his successes non-stop as a way to promote conservatism - which would win in a landslide against Hillary's same old failed BS policies that got us where we are today.

But - the Republican Leadership are a bunch of ball-less wonders who don't really care about the Constitution or conservative principles - only their continued careers and influence-peddling in Washington.  So they don't talk about these things because they don't care - and the voter remains uneducated because the case for conservative principles is never made to them.  It's infuriating, and it's completely reversible if the message is simply presented confidently and with the obvious and abundant evidence - irrefutable - that conservatism works every time it's tried.  Screw the Mitt Romneys, Karl Roves, and Paul Ryans of the world.  Inside-the-beltway establishment, clueless hacks - all of them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2014, 09:36:38 AM
Bland, competent, white male with spectacular record will NOT be enough.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 19, 2014, 10:20:59 AM
Whoever it is must have what it takes to beat the Hillary, her machine, the Pravdas, and women voters who will vote for her because she is a woman.

Bland, competent, white male with good record will NOT be enough.

Back to Carson and Rubio who I think could reach more people and break that stereotypes, but have no real executive experience?  I think you just knocked out almost every other mentioned Republican name.  I guess Chris Christie is not bland and Bobby Jindal isn't white.  As I said, there are going to be difficult trade-offs.

Your view of Hillary's status and political strength is different than mine.  

If it is Hillary, or Elizabeth Warren, and maybe even if it isn't, someone on the R ticket needs to be female.  Here we go again with the Palin type VP choice, this time Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte, Susana Martinez?  (I googled those 3 names and it was hard to find a 4th.  Maybe Mary Fallin, Gov of Oklahoma?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u37tG8fo6VA  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOxtdMHDV2g
---------------------------------------------------

For the record, I am not conceding Scott Walker is bland.  Just passing on what is being said.  I think he will run and we will see.  

I lean toward Rubio at the start for the reasons Crafty is suggesting.  He puts excitement into the idea of freedom in a way that no one since Reagan could.  He looks white and with Cuban descent does not share common heritage with most US Hispanics, but he speaks fluent and passionate Spanish and has a chance to make our case to a lot of people.

Crafty, Who do you see that is ready, and not white, male and bland?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2014, 10:24:25 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/2015-debates-threaten-hillarys-candidacy-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Jim Webb
Post by: DougMacG on November 21, 2014, 09:38:09 AM
He is not my choice, but wouldn't it be nice if Democrats offered a choice who had the best interests of the country in mind. 

Jim Webb is in - if enough people put forward enough financial support.

14 minute introductory video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV3RnBaXIlk
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 21, 2014, 11:35:22 AM
" and women voters who will vote for her because she is a woman"

Absolutely.   Just ask all the women around you what they think.  If they are honest many will say they are excited about this babe thing.  It is no different then voting for nonsense like "hope and change".

Many did not even consider what that meant.  It was exciting to them to vote for this creep.  Honesty, socialism they couldn't care less.  It was all emotional based on class/ gender, ethnic, and race warfare.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Elizabeth Warren 67 in 2016, should wait her turn?
Post by: DougMacG on November 24, 2014, 07:59:44 AM
" and women voters who will vote for her [Hillary Clinton] because she is a woman"

Same for Elizabeth Warren?  She is the current rock star of the left.  The energy in the Dem party, if there is any, is on the left.  Should Elizabeth Warren wait because this is Hillary's turn?   Warren will be 67 (1/2) in Nov 2016 (Hillary is 67 now).  And then 71 and 75 in the next two go-arounds.  Good luck with that.  In both parties, all potential candidates have to figure that this is their best chance.

I think it's almost certain Warren runs if Hillary doesn't.  (I fear Warren more than Hillary.)  Is Warren too good a friend to run against Hillary?

Warren said of Hillary in People magazine's gushing spotlight:   “We have talked. It’s not much more than that. Not much more,”
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/elizabeth-warren-2016-hillary-clinton-ticket
Title: Baraq is damaging Hillary's chances
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2014, 02:23:01 PM

WSJ
Obama Is Damaging Hillary’s Chances
Mrs. Clinton’s popularity has plunged, and she is increasingly trapped by her former boss’s record.
By Douglas E. Schoen and Patrick H. Caddell
Nov. 23, 2014 5:00 p.m. ET


President Obama ’s high-risk immigration gamble may have severe consequences for Washington, the country and the Democratic Party, most of all Hillary Clinton .

Mrs. Clinton’s putative bid for the Democratic presidential nomination is already running into trouble. The national exit poll from the recently completed midterm elections showed her with less than a majority of voters (43%) saying she would make a good president. When pitted against an unnamed Republican candidate, Mrs. Clinton lost 40% to 34%.

Those grim numbers followed on a September WSJ/NBC poll showing a plunge in Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating, to 43%, from 59% in 2009.

And that was before President Obama launched a defiant post-midterm campaign discarding political compromise and unilaterally doubling down on his unpopular policies. As a candidate, Mrs. Clinton would likely inherit a damaged party—and as a former member of his administration, she would struggle with the consequences of Mr. Obama’s go-it-alone governance.

The latest indication of the president’s politically damaging approach was his move on Thursday to unilaterally grant amnesty to an estimated five million illegal immigrants. A Rasmussen poll released Nov. 18 found that 53% of likely voters opposed the amnesty without congressional approval, while 34% approved. Moreover, 62% of those polled said that the president lacks the legal authority to take the action without congressional approval, and 55% said Congress should challenge the executive order in court.

That’s a problem for Democrats, who will be asked to defend the president, as they have had to do with other Obama policies, like the Affordable Care Act, that lack the support of most Americans.

Another source of trouble for Democrats: The proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which is enormously popular—59% of Americans are in favor, 31% against, according to a Pew poll this month. With the project so heavily favored, the president could score an easy win by backing the pipeline, but instead he has aligned himself with the elitist, environmentalist left led by billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer.

Mr. Obama’s willingness to disregard the public’s wishes will hurt Mrs. Clinton in particular. The president’s former secretary of state is already struggling to forge an independent identity without disowning the president. It will be almost impossible for Mrs. Clinton to directly oppose him over the next two years, though she will certainly continue to try to distance herself from Mr. Obama, as she did during her summer book tour. But if the president continues to lose the support of Democrats and moderates—as Mrs. Clinton has—she might have no alternative but to shelve her presidential ambitions.

If she does run, Mrs. Clinton could face a challenge from liberal populist Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Mrs. Clinton has struggled to adopt a populist mantle. The challenge was nowhere more in evidence than when she appeared in Massachusetts with Ms. Warren in October, awkwardly urging the crowd: “Don’t let anybody tell you that, you know, it’s corporations and businesses that create jobs.” She later explained that the line hadn’t come out right.

Mrs. Clinton will have to work harder than that to dispel the impression among liberal Democrats that she is, as the line goes, the “candidate from Goldman Sachs , ” having numerous ties to the institution. The threat to a Clinton campaign from a Democratic rival running to her left, as Mr. Obama did in 2008, increased last week when populist former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb announced he is setting up an exploratory committee for a 2016 presidential bid.

Mrs. Clinton will also have to contend with her role as the architect of “HillaryCare” in the 1990s, a clear forerunner to the Affordable Care Act, which was not popular with Americans when it was passed and now has the approval of only 37%, according to a recent Gallup poll.

It appears that Mrs. Clinton is trying to have it both ways on immigration by supporting President Obama but saying that the only lasting solution is congressional action. And on Keystone, she has been missing in action.

And if that weren’t enough, foreign policy—which should be a selling point for the former secretary of state—will be a minefield. The president seemingly has no coherent strategy to deal with Islamic State terrorists in Iraq and Syria, no coherent strategy for dealing with Russian President Vladimir Putin ’s bellicosity in Eastern Europe, and no coherent strategy for dealing with the Iranian nuclear program. Regardless of whatever news emerges from the Nov. 24 deadline for a nuclear deal with Iran, this story will drag on for ages, as the mullahs would prefer.

All of these foreign-policy dead zones have roots in Mrs. Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state, when she logged hundreds of thousands of miles without alighting on any significant successes. The Republican takeover of the Senate may bring fresh attention to her role in the deadly debacle in Benghazi, Libya, with victims that included U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

With President Obama now courting a constitutional crisis over his unilateral action on immigration reform, the Democratic Party is losing popularity by the day. The pressure is on Mrs. Clinton to separate herself from the partisan polarization and dysfunction in Washington while not alienating the liberal Democrats who dominate turnout in presidential primaries. She needs to distance herself from Mr. Obama without alienating his strongest supporters, but she also needs to develop a clear reason and logic for why she should be elected president—a logic that six years after she first declared her candidacy remains more elusive than ever.

Barack Obama could end up beating Hillary Clinton yet again.

Mr. Schoen, who served as a pollster for President Bill Clinton, is the author, with Melik Kaylan, of “The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership” (Encounter Books, 2014). Mr. Caddell served as a pollster for President Jimmy Carter .
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 26, 2014, 08:28:02 AM
Mike Huckabee Defies Assumptions About GOP 2016 Field
by Patrick O'Connor
WSJ

   
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been something of an afterthought in the early coverage of the emerging Republican presidential field.  That might be a little shortsighted, according to the results of a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released last week.  Mr. Huckabee, who defied expectations in 2008 by winning the Iowa caucuses, is viewed more positively by fellow Republicans than nine potential rivals, including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

The numbers alone aren’t enough to nudge the former Arkansas governor into the top-tier of Republicans considering a bid, but they do serve as a reminder that many assumptions about the GOP field are dangerously premature. The Republicans generating the most headlines aren’t necessarily the ones who excited GOP primary voters.
More In 2016

    Democrats Pick 3 Finalists for 2016 Convention Host City
    Six GOP Governors on Running for President in 2016
    Hillary Clinton Supporters See an Especially Tight Race in 2016
    GOP's 2016 Hopefuls Walk Tricky Line on Immigration
    Jim Webb Forms Exploratory Committee for 2016 Presidential Bid

Govs. John Kasich of Ohio and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, for example, created plenty of buzz by winning re-election in a pair of Rust Belt swing states, but the poll found that more Republicans know (and like) Ben Carson, the retired pediatric neurosurgeon whose criticism of President Barack Obama and the 2010 health law won a devoted following of conservative activists.

Support for all three is bound to fluctuate once the race gets under way – provided each runs – because half of the country doesn’t know them. In fact, at this point, the emerging field can be divided into three tiers: Republicans most Americans know, Republicans Americans are still getting to know and Republicans Americans are meeting for the first time.

Mr. Huckabee counts himself among the first group. Roughly four-of-five American adults know the former Arkansas governor well enough to form an opinion about him. Overall, 25% viewed him positively, on par with the 24% who viewed him negatively.

These early reviews improve dramatically when opinions are limited to Republicans. Some 52% had a favorable opinion of Mr. Huckabee, who traded his career in elected office for lucrative gigs hosting a nationally syndicated radio show and a weekend talk show on Fox News. Just 8% expressed negative views.

Compare those numbers to Messrs. Bush and Christie, and Mr. Huckabee starts looking even more formidable. One-in-five Republicans view Mr. Christie negatively, about half as many Republicans who view him positively. For Mr. Bush, 12% of Republicans express dim views of the former Florida governor, while 44% view him favorably.

(Mr. Paul has solid support, garnering positive reviews from 48% of self-described Republicans and negative reviews from just 6% of those Republicans polled.)

Almost six years after his surprise victory in Iowa, Mr. Huckabee continues to lead his would-be rivals in most of the early polls of Republicans in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

Those levels of support are drawing attention to a guy who has been largely out of the spotlight since he first played spoiler in 2008.

“I’m just surprised that his numbers are as strong as they are,” said Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct the Journal poll with Republican Bill McInturff. “That tells you something about the Fox viewership.”

It also begs the broader question: What other surprises are in store heading into a wide-open Republican nominating fight in which an under-the-radar candidate enters the race in a better position than other potential candidates generating more chatter?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Why Gallup poll signals trouble for Hillary
Post by: DougMacG on November 28, 2014, 07:59:30 AM
With all the focus on chasing Black and Hispanic votes, sometime they forget to pursue the other demographics, like white, working people. 

(http://4-ps.googleusercontent.com/x/www.powerlineblog.com/i2.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/admin/ed-assets/2014/11/xA7178F7FA1514F51ACAD1ABA8D656895.png,qresize=474,P2C319.pagespeed.ic.wK3gUOa42P.png)

"Obama’s approval rating has dropped 13 points among college-educated whites, but a remarkable 21 points among the non-college educated. Why the difference?

(We aren't talking about people who hate Obama and all Democrats, we are talking about people who initially supported him.)

The Obama administration has been bad for higher-income Americans, but not disastrous. Quantitative easing has re-inflated the stock market, and middle-aged “knowledge workers” have suffered less than other groups. But for the working class, there is nothing good to be said about Obamanomics: high unemployment, a scarcity of full-time work, skyrocketing prices of food and fuel, more expensive health care, anemic economic growth, and wage decline caused in part by competition with unprecedented numbers of legal and illegal immigrants. What’s to like? Nothing."

When Hillary runs in 2016 as the heir of Obama’s liberal economic and immigration policies, she will not have [Obama's] built-in advantage with minorities. There is no reason why any substantial number of working-class people, white or minority, would wish for another four years of Obama’s policies. Nor–to put it delicately–is there anything about Hillary’s persona that will endear her to the majority of such voters.

...expect a backlash against Obama’s economic and immigration policies in 2016 that will take pundits–not to mention Hillary–by surprise."

John Hinderacker, Powerline
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/11/why-the-gallup-poll-means-deep-trouble-for-hillary.php
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 28, 2014, 08:15:54 AM
Obama is working at reducing the numbers of all working people.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 28, 2014, 08:45:41 AM
Obama is working at reducing the numbers of all working people.

True.  That cuts both ways politically.  People may want to vote to protect benefits, but may want to vote for better opportunities for their offspring.  Obama couldn't run on his agenda again - now that it is fully exposed.  Decreasing workforce opportunities isn't what made Bill Clinton appear successful.  Quite the opposite.  I fail to see how some old, white, rich Grandma is going to excite minorities, young people, or working whites about their prospects for the future continuing the same, failed policies.

If you and your family really are dependent on government benefits, you should vote for the side that will grow the economy and revenues that fund our support system.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, T. Sowell on Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on December 01, 2014, 07:48:38 AM
Written just before the election:

"Except for Congressional elections, the most important election this year is the close race for governor of Wisconsin. Governor Scott Walker has shown that he has substance and guts, rather than image and rhetoric, by opposing the government employee unions that have been bleeding the taxpayers. He would make a far better Republican presidential candidate in 2016 than Congressional phrase-makers or a retreaded candidate who lost in 2012."
   - Thomas Sowell,  Oct 28,2014
http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell102814.php3#CUTfI7rIZKDtAPwD.99

[Walker won the so-called blue state by nearly 6%]
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on December 01, 2014, 07:56:27 AM
Obama is working at reducing the numbers of all working people.

True.  That cuts both ways politically.  People may want to vote to protect benefits, but may want to vote for better opportunities for their offspring.  Obama couldn't run on his agenda again - now that it is fully exposed.  Decreasing workforce opportunities isn't what made Bill Clinton appear successful.  Quite the opposite.  I fail to see how some old, white, rich Grandma is going to excite minorities, young people, or working whites about their prospects for the future continuing the same, failed policies.

If you and your family really are dependent on government benefits, you should vote for the side that will grow the economy and revenues that fund our support system.

Every dem voter I talk to says the government will just make more money. I wish I was joking.
Title: Cowardly evasions
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 02, 2014, 08:36:01 AM
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/1/2016-hopefuls-sidestep-ferguson-furor-leave-policy/
Title: 2016 Presidential, Hillary is the Underdog, Sean Trende, RCP
Post by: DougMacG on December 03, 2014, 08:53:05 PM
Projecting the economy and the (dis)approval of the incumbent:

"At 2.8 percent growth and using Obama’s current job approval, the model forecasts a Democratic loss of 4.6 points"

"... these models probably can give us a rough sense of what would happen under various fundamentals for 2016.  They point to a reasonably close election; they do not suggest that the Democratic nominee should be considered the favorite at this point."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/12/03/economy_doesnt_make_clinton_a_favorite_in_2016_124832.html#ixzz3KtxFOg9p
Title: Analogy to 1968
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 06, 2014, 09:13:13 AM


http://www.dickmorris.com/hillarys-1968-problem-dick-morris-tv-history-video/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: POTH love fest with Warren
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 16, 2014, 06:04:58 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/16/opinion/david-brooks-elizabeth-warren-can-win.html?emc=edit_th_20141216&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193
Title: Jeb-fever! Catch it!
Post by: G M on December 16, 2014, 01:38:10 PM
 :roll:

This is where I vote 3rd party or don't even bother.
Title: Re: Jeb-fever! Catch it! John Ellis Bush
Post by: DougMacG on December 17, 2014, 07:50:33 AM
:roll:

This is where I vote 3rd party or don't even bother.

That is why he is announcing this so early - to give us more time to recover from the initial stomach emptying reaction.  He is not my candidate.  But, ...  He was a successful, two term governor, an otherwise divided state,  the only Republican to ever serve two full four-year terms as Governor of Florida.  Many of the better policy oriented candidates have no executive experience.  He was considered the most conservative of the 3 Bushes in politics.  His record in Florida was more conservative than Reagan's was in California (they say).  This will be a long, substantive campaign (I think).  He will be known for his own strengths and weaknesses more than family name by the end of it.  Support for "Common Core" and amnesty look like his big obstacles to me.   
-----------------------------

John Hinderacker has an anyone but jeb Bush column out.  He admits that his current favorite is Marco Rubio

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/12/anyone-but-jeb-bush-pretty-much.php

"Hillary Clinton ... can be had by someone younger: a fresh face, a new voice, someone who changes the dynamic. Pretty much anyone but a Bush, in other words.
...
Polling data suggest that there are more conservatives in the U.S. than there are Republicans. There certainly are plenty of conservatives to put a Republican presidential candidate over the top. But they need a strong candidate to rally behind. This cycle, I think there are a number of Republicans who could fit that description–Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio (my current favorite), maybe Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal or John Kasich, maybe Chris Christie if he can define himself as a conservative. There are others who could jump into the race, both plausible candidates (John Thune) and less plausible (Ben Carson)."


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, deep Republican bench, Gov. Mike Pence
Post by: DougMacG on December 17, 2014, 08:09:41 AM
Add one more name, Mike Pence has both congressional and executive experience.
http://townhall.com/columnists/calthomas/2014/12/15/gov-mike-pence-national-government-is-not-the-nation-n1932189

If success at the state level were enough to recommend someone for president of the United States, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana would be among the frontrunners for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.

...last year's 5 percent income tax reduction, the largest state tax cut in Indiana history." In addition, the state corporate tax rate was reduced from 6.5 percent to 4.9 percent, making it the third lowest in the country and contributing to Indiana's increase in the labor force

He served for 10 years as a congressman

Pence's education agenda includes a goal of taking children in underperforming schools and putting them in good schools...largest education voucher program in America.

Title: Re: Jeb-fever! Catch it! John Ellis Bush
Post by: G M on December 17, 2014, 01:27:55 PM
1.We fought wars to avoid hereditary rulers.

2. Jeb called illegal immigration "an act of love". He can go perform an act on himself as far as I am concerned.

:roll:

This is where I vote 3rd party or don't even bother.

That is why he is announcing this so early - to give us more time to recover from the initial stomach emptying reaction.  He is not my candidate.  But, ...  He was a successful, two term governor, an otherwise divided state,  the only Republican to ever serve two full four-year terms as Governor of Florida.  Many of the better policy oriented candidates have no executive experience.  He was considered the most conservative of the 3 Bushes in politics.  His record in Florida was more conservative than Reagan's was in California (they say).  This will be a long, substantive campaign (I think).  He will be known for his own strengths and weaknesses more than family name by the end of it.  Support for "Common Core" and amnesty look like his big obstacles to me.   
-----------------------------

John Hinderacker has an anyone but jeb Bush column out.  He admits that his current favorite is Marco Rubio

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/12/anyone-but-jeb-bush-pretty-much.php

"Hillary Clinton ... can be had by someone younger: a fresh face, a new voice, someone who changes the dynamic. Pretty much anyone but a Bush, in other words.
...
Polling data suggest that there are more conservatives in the U.S. than there are Republicans. There certainly are plenty of conservatives to put a Republican presidential candidate over the top. But they need a strong candidate to rally behind. This cycle, I think there are a number of Republicans who could fit that description–Ted Cruz, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio (my current favorite), maybe Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal or John Kasich, maybe Chris Christie if he can define himself as a conservative. There are others who could jump into the race, both plausible candidates (John Thune) and less plausible (Ben Carson)."



Title: Carly Fiorina Hiring for 2016 Presidential Campaign
Post by: DougMacG on December 19, 2014, 07:06:18 PM
I hate to say it, but we could use a little gender (and other) diversity on the debate stage.  She has executive experience and I assume her own set of ideas and has a much right to it as anyone else to court our support.  I also assume she is from the so called moderate wing of the Republican.  I hope all the moderates get in and split that vote.  It looks like all the conservatives are getting in.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/carly-fiorina-hiring-for-presidential-campaign-20141218
Carly Fiorina Hiring for Presidential Campaign
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 19, 2014, 09:22:31 PM
Oy vey.  She was distinctly unimpressive when she ran here in CA (Senate IIRC).  This is a non-event.
Title: Rubio vs. Paul on Cuba
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 21, 2014, 09:01:36 AM


http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/20/marco-rubio-strikes-back-rand-paul-adopting-obamas/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 24, 2014, 10:04:30 AM
I'm sure we here have noticed the dust up between Sen. Rand Paul and Sen. Marco Rubio over Baraq's move with Cuba.  IMHO the implications run deep and go to the point I have been making here on this forum about the absence of a guiding paradigm for US foreign policy for several years now.

The implications for the 2016 race of the Paul-Rubio dust up are deep.

Does not Paul come closer to the current mood than Rubio?  Does he not score a telling point when he accuses Rubio of backing Hillary's policies with regard to Libya, the MB in Egypt and so forth?  The implications here for a Paul-Hillary match-up are quite intriguing.  Do any of us here want to follow Hillary in foreign affairs?  I surely would not want my son serving her in harm's way-- how can I ask such of others as she empathizes with evil-doers, and, with Huma Abedin at her elbow, supports the MB?  Do any of us trust any of the people under consideration to effectively act in the Middle East?

Pair this with Paul's clarion call against the Orwellian State that is taking form as we watch and for a return to the Rule of Law and Freem Inds and Free Markets, and we may see many assumptions about political coalitions shatter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 24, 2014, 10:12:20 PM
Crafty:
"I'm sure we here have noticed the dust up between Sen. Rand Paul and Sen. Marco Rubio over Baraq's move with Cuba.  IMHO the implications run deep and go to the point I have been making here on this forum about the absence of a guiding paradigm for US foreign policy for several years now.

The implications for the 2016 race of the Paul-Rubio dust up are deep.

Does not Paul come closer to the current mood than Rubio?  Does he not score a telling point when he accuses Rubio of backing Hillary's policies with regard to Libya, the MB in Egypt and so forth?  The implications here for a Paul-Hillary match-up are quite intriguing.  Do any of us here want to follow Hillary in foreign affairs?  I surely would not want my son serving her in harm's way-- how can I ask such of others as she empathizes with evil-doers, and, with Huma Abedin at her elbow, supports the MB?  Do any of us trust any of the people under consideration to effectively act in the Middle East?

Pair this with Paul's clarion call against the Orwellian State that is taking form as we watch and for a return to the Rule of Law and Freem Inds and Free Markets, and we may see many assumptions about political coalitions shatter."
------------------------------

Very odd dust up indeed.  Too bad to see otherwise allies bloodying each other.  Paul called Rubio an isolationist.  An odd bit of flippant humor applied to a pretty serious situation.  Rubio is anything but isolationist. 

I agree that the current mood is tempted to follow the Rand Paul / Barack Obama foreign policy (as Rubio called it) which is a mix of a little talk with doing mostly nothing.  People seem to know this is not working, and current mood doesn't mean that the right answer.  That is why we hopefully have leaders.  What is happening around the world?  Russia-Ukraine, Iran going nuclear, North Korea running the US, China doing an accelerated build on their Navy and passing us economically, Europe imploding to Islamists, and worst of all I think, Islamic State is consolidating its gains by exterminating all opposition.  Cuba is harmless to us?  I don't think so.  No, it is a communist dictatorship.  All tourist revenue goes to the regime, and from there to carry out oppression.  They are friend to all our enemies.  They are the third largest spying regime against the US.  They are still allies of powerful adversaries in a very dangerous world.

Maybe this will help clarify Rubio's view, a 14 minute interview with John Hinderaker yesterday:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/12/marco-rubio-on-cuba.php

Rubio is FOR the opening up to Cuba.  He is for linking it to them taking steps forward toward democratization.  The Castro brothers are old and will die.  There is going to be a transition.  We would like to see it go toward freedom and self determination.  Normalization is what they want.  It is our only policy lever.  Obama gave it away and got nothing in return for it.  Now he won't ever again hold that lever.  Rand Paul supports all that.  His reason is because that might open up freedom in Cuba?  But how?  The money goes to the regime.  Didn't every other country already do that and it didn't work?  Haven't we done that since 1972 with China.  But China has a transition process.  Cuba doesn't.

Rubio previously on Cuba and Venezuela:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_wKhXurFyI

A Cuban exile writes in the Washington Post today:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/12/22/as-a-cuban-exile-i-feel-betrayed-by-president-obama/

Recent News:  Cuban Government Sinks Boat Carrying 32 Refugees, Including Children
The boat, said González, was carrying 32 people, including seven women and two children. One of the two children was her 8-year-old son.  Her husband is still missing.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article4711515.html
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2014/12/23/cuban-government-sinks-boat-carrying-32-refugees-including-children/
Did anyone see that story?

When Marco Rubio speaks passionately and in great detail about just how awful the Cuban regime is, is anyone saying that any of it is not true??

No.  We are just tired of taking a stand. 

Free trade is something you do with free people.  Enriching enemies of the United States with either money or technology was illegal when I was in the export business.  I fully support free trade but understand that caveat.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 25, 2014, 11:08:44 AM
Doug:  Some excellent sources there-- please post them on the Cuba thread as well.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 26, 2014, 07:13:07 PM
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/shock-poll-jeb-bush-is-choice-of-conservatives-romney-is-establishment-pick/article/2557867?utm_campaign=Washington%20Examiner:%20Top%205%20PMI&utm_source=Washington%20Examiner:%20Top%205%20PMI%20-%2012/25/14&utm_medium=email
Title: I challenge anyone To watch this, and if they can, debunk half of what it says.
Post by: DDF on January 04, 2015, 11:07:00 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwLUE2Xe8N0

I posted it here, because to me, it should influence who we all vote for.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 05, 2015, 08:55:52 AM
Two hours and forty minutes?

That is one helluva a time investment.  How about a decent outline of what it is saying to help determine whether one should watch?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 07, 2015, 02:59:16 PM
Chris Christy has taken a number of hits lately.  Today's news says that more people are leaving NJ than any other state.  Comments from our man on the scene?

http://articles.philly.com/2013-01-09/news/36239709_1_migration-study-michael-stoll-keystone-state
http://www.businessinsider.com/people-are-fleeing-new-jersey-2014-1
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 08, 2015, 09:55:13 AM
From Jeb Bush thread:
I am so sick of the republican structure pushing democrat-lite candidates. I will not vote for them again. I will worry about local issues and ignore the national goat rope.

If we want to compete with Rinos on the Republican side who are already charging forward, we will have to do that same work on our side too.  The establishment has donors and networks.  Where are ours?  Our side better get started, organize, choose a leader and raise money.  It is time to start naming names.  Too often we sit back and take defeat by default. 

To everyone, unless you want lousy choices handed to you later, pick a leader.  Go to Youtube, search their name, hear them speak.  Read the backgrounds, find their positions.  There are 17-20 Republican choices available:

Jeb Bush -  Too Rino?
Chris Christie -  Too Rino? or whatever else?
Mitt Romney - Too Rino, blew it last time, can't articulate certain things, and will never escape Romneycare.

Marco Rubio - Too young?  Too new?  (Looks good to me.)
Ben Carson -  No political experience? But raising grass roots money. (Worth a try?)
Ted Cruz - Too divisive?  (or just what is needed?)
Bobby Jindal - Not exciting?  (So what.)
Rand Paul - Wrong on foreign policy? 
Rick Perry - Blew it last time.  3 term governor of the largest, Republican-led state.
Rick Santorum - Unelectable.
Mike Pence -  Has both congressional and executive experience.  (The adult in the room?)
Scott Walker - Questionable national appeal?  (Or maybe just right.)

Carly Fiorina - Too Rino, no political experience.
Mike Huckabee - No.
Kelly Ayotte -  Too new, too Rino?
Susana Martinez - Not yet on the national stage.
Nikki Haley -   same?
Who did I miss -  ?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 08, 2015, 02:18:50 PM



Jeb Bush -  Too Rino?

I'm hearing good things about his record in FL, let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.  Let's find out more.

Chris Christie -  Too Rino? or whatever else?

Ego maniac, half the streets in town are named after him "One Way".  Remember his speech nominating Romney at the convention?  It was all about himself.  Remember his betrayal of Romney by sucking up to Obama at Sandy Hook's aftermath?  Recent record in NJ is not too good, and lots of people are now leaving NY.  We know NOTHING of his instincts on foreign affairs.  Plus he could keel over with a heart attack.

Mitt Romney - Too Rino, blew it last time, can't articulate certain things, and will never escape Romneycare.

Fair enough, but I think the man has deepened from his reflections on his loss and what has happened since then.  He has earned a credibility and a respect that he did not have before due to his various prescient calls.

Marco Rubio - Too young?  Too new?  (Looks good to me.)

Good man in many ways, but too young, NO executive experience, good call for VP

Ben Carson -  No political experience? But raising grass roots money. (Worth a try?)

Ultimately his lack of ANY experience in ANY aspect of governance is a huge gap, but I hope he garners much attention in the early campaign.  He is a very good man with much to offer-- and a temperament that will resonate very well with many.  He should be the one leading the charge on Obamacare and should we win, should become Sec. of HHS.

Ted Cruz - Too divisive?  (or just what is needed?)

All intellect, his entire life has been the law.   Fg tone deaf to human emotion.  As a candidate he would be a disaster. 

Bobby Jindal - Not exciting?  (So what.)

How would he give women a reason to vote against Hillary?  No track record on foreign affairs.

Rand Paul - Wrong on foreign policy?

Well, he's wrong in some ways, and quite right in others.  Which candidate would you trust to be your son's commander in chief while serving in the middle east?  Guys, we need to remember that the country as a whole is quite distrustful AND UNDERSTANDABLY SO of our government's competence in this regard.   A decent case can be made for regrouping.  Rand truly stands for many superb things on the domestic front when it comes to economic and personal freedom and cutting the government.  He also appears to have a genuine feeling for redefining to which groups the Reps appeal.   Don't write him off yet.

Rick Perry - Blew it last time.  3 term governor of the largest, Republican-led state.

Will always be seen as a Dan Quayle.  That he is very good on Tenth Amendment issues is a very good thing, but that is FAR FAR FAR from being a campaign.

Rick Santorum - Unelectable.

Quite good on Obamacare but Libs already razz him for being the only candidate with a plank in his platform about anal sex.  He will always be portrayed as a sexual busybody. 

Mike Pence -  Has both congressional and executive experience.  (The adult in the room?)

Boring white guy.

Scott Walker - Questionable national appeal?  (Or maybe just right.)

Boring white guy.

Carly Fiorina - Too Rino, no political experience.

And ran a crummy campaign for Senate here in CA.  Run her against Hillary?  Pathetic.

Mike Huckabee - No.

There is much I like about the man and he has a good temperament, but too many doubts about his record in AK.  I'm willing to give a listen, but at the moment I don't think it will go much further than that.

Kelly Ayotte -  Too new, too Rino?

Seems like a decent Senator, but other than that , , , so what? 

Susana Martinez - Not yet on the national stage.

Exactly.

Nikki Haley -   same?

Yep.

Who did I miss -  ?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 08, 2015, 04:56:14 PM
Thanks for the detailed response. 

Romney has learned a lot I'm sure.  I agree he earned credibility on calling some things right, that his economic plan would have worked and the people wish he had won last time in hindsight.  But some of the key part I think we need is not in him.  In a nutshell, he opposed Reagan, expanded government when he had the chance, and couldn't defend capitalism or his own work in the free enterprise system when pressed.  I will vote for him again if that's all there is, but he is not the leader that will change minds of millions or bring a new generation over to our side.  I will not forget that he choked and backed off when Candy Crowley (wrongfully) stepped into the debate.   Why was he making that (valid) accusation against the President of the United States in a scheduled debate if he was ready, willing and able to back it up?  He lacked the fire in the belly then and is likely to have even less now.  Speaking of Christy at the convention, what happened to Romney there?  They had a week of free media and gained nothing from it.  He mostly played defense.  He is a good man.  Too bad he didn't step up when he had the chance.

Rand Paul.  "Which candidate would you trust to be your son's commander in chief while serving in the middle east?"  - I would trust him to have the least casualties in foreign lands, but also to make us the least secure at home.  ISIS has captured strategic territory, revenue sources, weapons, and is breeding a new generation of terrorists through gender slavery and rape.  Time for us take a little breather?

Does boring white guy (Pence, Walker) mean ruled out because they are unelectable? 

I didn't know white male was a disqualifier. :wink:  And aren't they all boring to the general electorate when they talk about key issues, taxes, spending, entitlements, regulations, budgets, security, foreign entanglements, monetary policy, judiciary philosophy, etc.  That's why they turn to boxers, briefs and what's in your playlist.  For Obama, it was Greek columns and speeches full of nothingness.   If we don't choose Carson, Bachmann, Fiorina, or Jindal, Cruz, Rubio, Ayotte, Haley... then might we have to get behind a boring white guy??

One other observation.  No names were added to the list (so far).  With almost all ruled out, we are down to very few good choices.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 08, 2015, 08:39:37 PM
"and couldn't defend capitalism or his own work in the free enterprise system when pressed."

That is a zinger!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on January 09, 2015, 06:07:56 AM
Ted Cruz or bust.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 09, 2015, 08:06:46 AM
I am quite glad he is in the Senate, but as a Presidential candidate he would suck and our next President will be Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 09, 2015, 09:50:09 AM
GM: "Ted Cruz or bust."
Crafty: "as a Presidential candidate he would suck and our next President will be Hillary."

And I was hoping we would reach consensus by now.  :-)

My view on Cruz is in between these two.  He is a high risk choice, but maybe one worth taking.  Like Gingrich last time, he is one guy you wish was there on the stage when our candidate has no answer to lying liberalism.

Ted Cruz will be accused of shutting the government down.  17% of it for 16 days.  But, on the ticket and in the media, he can answer that.  He didn't shut it down, Barack Obama and Harry Reid did.  The Republican budget funded everything except the exact part they were sent there to stop. 

He will be accused of being the far, extreme right.  But is he also the guy that makes sense of those conservative positions to the persuadable?  Hillary, if she runs and is nominated, will be candidate of the status quo.  Cruz would be new guy on the stage arguing for change.  That said, I don't think he can win the nomination.

Waiting to hear from obj, ccp, and others!

We want someone a) who can win, and b) who can turn this country around.  If you can't win, you can't turn the country around.  If you win but govern Dem-lite and can't defend good policies, then you set the stage for failure, like last time.

One of these people, we hope and pray, is the next leader who can connect, persuade, move the debate and the people.  Who is that?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 09, 2015, 12:03:15 PM
I lived in Florida while Jeb was governor.  However I don't follow politics a lot at the state level.  I don't recall any particular criticisms about him overall.   He is definitely an appeaser though.

I enjoyed going to a rally In Orlando when his brother W was running for President.   We got to see him and his brother and even more importantly Bo Derek.

Now I am in NJ.  Christy did take on the teachers unions which is no less of a big deal here as it is in Wisconsin with what Walker did.  Yet I don't see much else happening here in NJ that gives us much relief. 

We still are at the top of all lists for taxes in the nation.   Pension plans are still out of control.  The government employees unlike historically are now doing better than the majority of private sector workers.

I cannot say Christy's personality is not a problem.  He turns me off as well as my conservative Republican sister who as a teacher *was* very supportive of him (unlike all the other "let the rich pay for it crowd of Democrat teachers).   We don't like narcissists. 

I have a nephew who is chief of staff for Bobby Jindal.  I like him a lot.  He is a genius I here and always several thoughts ahead of everyone around him as well as a true type A workaholic.   And a genuine *nice" guy.  My sister had several personally guided tours at the Loiusianna "white house".

None of the candidates are ideal at this point in time for me personally as well as  haveinga great shot at appealing to the "masses".

There is a growing problem of entitlement mentality in the US as well Europe.  We all know this.

Perhaps it is good to have everyone jump in and let the best man (no woman yet) win.   

I am quite pessimistic that we will get one who is a great conservative with a great mouthpiece have a good shot to win a national election. 
Title: Christie and business
Post by: ccp on January 10, 2015, 06:35:45 PM
We must be talking big business which is absolutely booming near me.  Endless popular chain restaurants, Dunkin Donuts, Walmarts.   I don't know too many small business people who are thrilled.    The big businesses have the ability to pay people to figure out all the regulations, IT requirements, and lobby.    This is how it is occurring in health care.   Wall Street has taken over just as much as government.   

57% (who was surveyed I am not sure)  of businesses approve of CC:

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2014/12/25/survey-says-new-jersey-business-is-big-on-governor-christie/

Yet most people otherwise give him a so so rating and most in the State do not even consider him a good candidate for President as per one survey.

For many of us his fanship of the NY Giants arch enemy Dallas Cowboys is enough to warrant removal from office.  Could anyone imagine Rick Perry saying his favorite team is the NY Giants?   I mean common really!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 11, 2015, 10:16:17 AM
Great comments by ccp.  Jeb did a good job with Florida as Governor.  He had good circumstances, Republican legislature, Marco Rubio Speaker, no income tax etc.  He wasn't run by his father or big brother, was his own man.  He has a couple of issue problems to resolve if he wants conservative support and he doesn't seem to want to do that.

Like Walker,  Chris Christie stood up to unions.  Unlike Walker, he didn't turn the rest of the problems in the state around. Maybe couldn't have because it is a Dem state, but didn't.  NJ is not either his fault nor his accomplishment.  He has a medium record, upset a lot of R's with his 2012 Obama embrace, has a controversial personality and like most governors has no real record on foreign policy.

With Jeb and Mitt maybe in, Chris Christie is one more Rino to split the moderate-establishment wing vote, so we should hope all of those get in - and lose.    :-)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 11, 2015, 06:31:59 PM
"With Jeb and Mitt maybe in, Chris Christie is one more Rino to split the moderate-establishment wing vote, so we should hope all of those get in - and lose"

Pleasant thought.  Would be nice. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 13, 2015, 05:48:56 PM
Paul Ryan is out.

Romney is in.  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-30799373

Elizabeth Warren now says she will not run.  (Assuming Hillary is in.)

This is starting up early!

Stealing the photo from Crafty's post, how do we compete with the accomplishments, good looks and charisma of this woman?
(https://scontent-a-lax.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xap1/v/t1.0-9/1004841_440565419409975_1071170480_n.jpg?oh=dcf35b663ccd7de8a07099ca69f9ebb9&oe=5525C7BC)
Title: Morris on Romeny vs. Bush
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 16, 2015, 10:37:30 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/romney-beat-bush-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 22, 2015, 05:13:28 AM
Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush to Meet, Raising Speculation on Presidential Race
Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are scheduled to meet privately in Utah this week, raising the possibility that the two former governors will find a way to avoid competing presidential campaigns that would split the Republican establishment next year, two prominent party members said Wednesday night.
The meeting was planned before Mr. Romney’s surprise announcement two weeks ago to donors in New York that he was considering a third run at the White House.
Mr. Bush initiated the meeting, according to one of the party members familiar with the planning.
READ MORE »
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/22/us/politics/romney-and-jeb-bush-to-meet-raising-speculation-on-presidential-race.html?emc=edit_na_20150121

Title: Clinton machine is going to overwhelm media with a blitzkreig
Post by: ccp on January 22, 2015, 07:29:23 AM
I wouldn't necessarily believe a Wash Post ABC poll since the people running are most likely connected to the Clinton machine complex but she will come out of the gate with a huge lead and she will be shoved through like no tomorrow.   Her focus on the middle class is interesting as is the Republicans new finding that this is the golden key to power.

I've posted for years that no one was really addressing this especially the right.  Well now they are.

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/01/in_2016_face-off_clinton_handily_defeats_christie.html?from_TBM_site=Lead
Title: Doug's prediction looking better every day
Post by: G M on January 26, 2015, 03:31:11 PM
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/01/26/hillary-clintons-numbers-quietly-crumble/
Title: 2016 (Vice) Presidential: Carly Fiorina
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2015, 08:25:58 AM
Crafty, previously:  "She was distinctly unimpressive when she ran here in CA"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This speech was perhaps the biggest surprise in the recent event in Iowa - the contest to selected as Rubio's running mate.   :wink:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/01/26/carly_fiorina_to_hillary_clinton_flying_is_an_activity_not_an_accomplishment.html

It is possible that she choked in her recent Senate race because she knew these views did not fit with that audience, the California electorate.  Still she only lost 52-42 in a far left state.

She makes very powerful and persuasive points about government getting too big.  For wherever her candidacy leads, it is a very positive thing for the process to have a sharp and experienced woman up on the stage making the conservative case.

She has met Putin, knows Netanyahu, understand cyber-warfare and the Chinese policy supporting theft of our technology.  She explained beautifully how big businesses can hire lawyers to deal with over-regulation while small businesses cannot.

And she didn't wear a pant suit.

Fiorina has degrees from Stanford and MIT.  Breast cancer survivor.  Worked as a secretary out of college, worked her way up at AT&T/Lucent.  She was named Fortune magazine's most powerful woman in business prior to being chosen CEO at HP.  She led the world's largest technology company 5 years through troubled times with mixed results.  

She was quite comfortable taking on Hillary Clinton directly.  Took a jab at the Putin reset button, said I'll tell you what difference it makes regarding Benghazi, and asserted that flying is an activity, not an accomplishment.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 27, 2015, 09:25:41 AM
"Doug's prediction looking better everyday"

Well she is clearly not the BS mouthpiece Bubba is yet I still say never underestimate the depravity of the Clinton machine.
The entire left will rally behind her and be quite happy to fill in for her personal and policy deficits with fanciful story lines galore.


So far no Republican clearly has what it takes at this time (IMHO).   I liked some of Bush's rant on Drudge but his take on illegals which is essentially to pardon 15 or 20 million of them and thus more will come till be have 75 million in the US (California whose population has exploded was reported to be well over 50% Latin - not all illegal of course but a substantial portion yes) does not sit well with me.  I don't care if the illegal is from Israel.  Go back to your country and apply through legal channels.

He has clearly done a mea culpa and seems to think we can win their hearts and minds over while the left stuffs stolen money into their pockets.   Good luck with that.

While I rather agree with Jindal's religious morality ideals I don't think that would be a big seller outside the Christian right.

Sure I like Rubio but I am not sure if he has already peaked.   Not sure.

Paul is out for me.  He is just not appealing.   Too analytical.

Walker I don't know if he has the charisma.

Romney we know has no charisma.

Christi's policies are suspect and I just don't really like him personally.

We will see.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Rubio
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2015, 02:06:37 PM
ccp:  "Sure I like Rubio but I am not sure if he has already peaked.   Not sure."

Look at the skill he exhibits in his first sentence in the Megan Kelly interview on broken families that Crafty posted (Rubio thread):

"So let's be clear from the beginning, there are courageous single parents out there that are raising their children in less than ideal settings, and they're doing a great job and those kids are going to succeed.  But statistically speaking..., (we know, that children that are raised in a home with two parents do better)."  

This is without notes, teleprompters or handlers as far as I can tell.  His is prepared and knows what he wants to say.  He presents core conservative ideas and principles in a non-threatening way, intelligently and intuitively, and with passion!  Compare that with Romney 2012 (or whoever).  When Romney was caught in his 47% comment, he couldn't find the words to defuse that in days that followed, while Rubio has defused potentially similar criticisms of single families in his prefacing remark.

Any one of them might implode at anytime, but he has already gone out there and exposed himself on all the key issues, and always seems ready for the reaction he gets from his detractors.

Immigration is supposedly the one thing he can't overcome, except that:  he sees both sides of the issue, he truly favors a secure border, he has already tried engaging up close and personal with the duplicitous left on this and failed.  He is less threatening to independent voters who have a friends or relatives living "in the shadows" than the rest of would be, and he is more likely to get a good outcome on immigration than a perfectly conservative position that would not win in a general election.

You don't think he would look good, look sharp, hold his ground standing next to Hillary and offer a better alternative, a better future that people in the middle and non-political can relate to?  Appeal to young voters, women voters, Hispanics, even gain ground with blacks?  Without losing ground with the base, conservatives, whites and males?  I do.

The Rubio agenda reads something like the Heritage Index of Economic Freedom where we now rank out of the top ten, behind New Zealand, Estonia and Mauritius, among others.  I ought to be a no-brainer to support moving up on this list - in the direction of restoring our freedoms, but most can't or won't articulate that.

It is the Governors who have the executive experience.  But they will be tripped up when they can't name the leaders of India, China, Japan and the UK, etc.  Hillary is loving the idea of telling us about her last dinner with each of them (while Bill was at the camp for old timers and underage nubiles).  Mike Pence has both congressional and executive experience.  But will he create this kind of excitement?  Do people want to hear about the business successes in Indiana (Orville Redenbacher is what he came up with)?  Probably not.  They want to hear about the shining city on the hill and visualize their families doing well there.  Otherwise they will take whoever offers them the biggest safety net.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2015, 02:06:54 PM
I am pretty excited about the run to Iowa and NH, for both parties. For real.

Bigdog, You are missed here!  Your thoughts on the current scene?  Let me know if you wold like to meet up at an Iowa political event.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on January 27, 2015, 02:09:53 PM
I could go for Rubio as vp. Cruz/Rubio could work.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 27, 2015, 03:03:39 PM
Reflect upon this:

Hillary's running mate will be Bill Clinton.
Title: Reminder, this is the electorate
Post by: G M on January 27, 2015, 03:06:28 PM
http://io9.com/80-of-americans-support-mandatory-labels-on-foods-cont-1680277802?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_facebook&utm_source=io9_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

Why bother?
Title: Re: Reminder, this is the electorate
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2015, 10:19:38 PM
http://io9.com/80-of-americans-support-mandatory-labels-on-foods-cont-1680277802?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_facebook&utm_source=io9_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

Why bother?

Yes, and the dangers mentioned of di-hydrogen monoxide.  People immersed in it are dying, yet no one will ban it.  http://www.dhmo.org/facts.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 30, 2015, 07:29:20 AM
from another forum:

"I'm all-in for Rand Paul and think he's got what it takes to win the general vs. Hillary in a LANDSLIDE. He actually is better than Hillary on a lot of issues that matter to people on the left and independents with issues like war policy, drug policy, privacy, etc... but yet he's still awesomely pro-gun, pro-life, small government. But most importantly we're headed into major financial trouble with our debt/deficits and I think he's the best person to correctly articulate how out of control our spending is across the board and how corrupt our government is, and apply the correct remedies. Who is talking about the Federal Reserve bank and monetary policy right now? Only him. Rand is like the best parts of his dad, minus the crazy parts. I'm going to support Rand 100% during Primary season and encourage you all to take a hard look at him."
Title: Romney out
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 30, 2015, 08:31:01 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/mitt-romney-2016-presidential-election.html?emc=edit_na_20150130&nlid=49641193&_r=0
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 30, 2015, 09:52:19 AM
Yes, Romney is out.  Now I like him again, a politician listening to his constituents!

ccp who lives in NJ nailed it on Chris Christie.  His ratio of popularity to name recognition is lousy.  (Same with Palin.)  See the 538 site.  He lacks the story of a turnaround in his state compared with his potential contenders, Walker, Kasich, Jindal, Jeb, Rick Perry, etc.  I don't think many people even want to hear about a good story of a turnaround in a different state.

Huck is aiming only at southerners, having some fun with the process, and not running to win.

Nice post below by a Rand Paul supporter: "he's got what it takes to win the general vs. Hillary in a LANDSLIDE. He actually is better than Hillary on a lot of issues that matter to people on the left and independents with issues like war policy, drug policy, privacy, etc... but yet he's still awesomely pro-gun, pro-life, small government."

But that doesn't make any sense.  Hillary will win the liberal vote unless she is challenged from the left.  What part of the fact they don't want small government, pro-life, pro-gun does he not understand?  He may win over some people previously non-political, but not a liberal.  This will be a landslide only if one contender falls on his or her face, not because we (or they) are that good.

Rand's problem is that his foreign policy views do not fit the timing of accelerating threats around the globe.  He will run a good, grass roots race but not win the nomination.

Pundits and professional journalists are calling Rubio's book tour "well-timed".  Rubio allegedly getting early donor support:  http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/koch-donors-marco-rubio-2016-114673.html  The book is also well-named, American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone.  I also like the name of Jeb's campaign, Right to Rise.  Same theme: let's expand upward mobility.

I heard Krauthammer clarify his bet on Marco Rubio.  The question, he said, was how would he bet $100 if he was in Vegas today.  He went the highest on Rubio because of having the best chance of winning relative to his longshot odds, not because of having the highest likelihood of winning.

Ruthless assessment by Jay Cost in the Weekly Standard today of the Democratic field.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/democratic-bench-shockingly-weak_830664.html
The Democrats appear institutionally incapable of offering more than one person worthy of consideration.
 
Hillary is reportedly delaying her launch to July while hired aides work on a message for her.  Good grief.  That gives me a little more time to save up for the nice dinner I will owe ccp.

More dropouts expected as potential candidates see how hard this is.  Donors don't give up money easily and delegates don't commit support easily.  Some like Santorum won't care and will fight anyway.  Many surprises to come.  I'm still waiting to hear from Hickenlooper!  Warren is in the moment Hillary admits she isn't.  Besides me, Obama, Warren and Clinton may already know that.  See Wash Post:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/01/30/what-if-hillary-doesnt-run/




Title: Transcript: Rubio, Cruz and Paul debate, Freedom Partners conference
Post by: DougMacG on January 30, 2015, 10:20:42 AM
75 minutes if you can find the video.  I plan to read this fairly long transcript:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/transcript-freedom-partners-forum-ted-cruz-rand-paul/story?id=28491534&singlePage=true

Rand Paul supports Obama's approach on Iran. 
Marco Rubio says the threat of a nuclear Iran is so great that no option should be off the table.  (Read at the link to find out Ted Cruz' views...)

In a straw poll of attendees, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida came out ahead of four other would-be GOP presidential candidates who had been invited.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/koch-donors-marco-rubio-2016-114673.html#ixzz3QKX74q2T
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 30, 2015, 12:04:15 PM
Thanks for the URL of the transcript Doug.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Rubio, Paul, Cruz
Post by: DougMacG on January 30, 2015, 11:43:29 PM
Thanks for the URL of the transcript Doug.
Again, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/transcript-freedom-partners-forum-ted-cruz-rand-paul/story?id=28491534&singlePage=true

You're welcome.  Sorry I don't have the video link.  Transcripts from voice recognition make some errors so it took some effort to go through it. 

The discussion was mostly on economic policy, then drifted into some foreign policy.  On the economic side the debate was the 'mainstream' questioner versus the three of them.  Each had a turn saying they disagreed with the false premise of the question.  The contest between the three I think was to see who could express our principles best.

I selectively cut and pasted some here, shortened and chopped.  The full transcript is much longer.
------------------------
Jonathon Karl, ABC:  7 million new jobs, oil prices down... why should voters ever trust Republicans again

Ted Cruz:  The top 1% earn a higher share of our income nationally than any year since 1928. The simple truth is with big government those with resources are doing well.  We have today the lowest labor force participation since 1978. Ninety-two million Americans aren't working. And you wanna talk about what's making life hard for working men and women, wage stagnation. Median wages today are equal to what they were in 1996, for 20 years.

Rand Paul: the reason I would say the economy's getting better is despite the president and despite the president's policies. One of the things that has led the resurgence is oil and gas boom. The oil and gas boom's being done on private land, not public land. We're not allowed to drill on public land. This president should take no credit for any kind of recovery we have.

Marco Rubio:  One of the significant reasons why the unemployment rate has gotten lower is 'cause less people are looking for work. ... this is not a cyclical downturn that we went through simply. It is a massive structural change in the very nature of the economy. ... we are increasingly less globally competitive for investment and for innovation because of taxes, because of regulation. And quite frankly, because of anti-business rhetoric from Washington. ... There are better jobs that could potentially take their place. But they're either not being created in this country because of tax policy, regulatory policy, the national debt, Obamacare, or too many of our people don't have the 21st century skills they need for that. ... wage stagnation is happening at a time when the cost of everything is going up dramatically.

Karl: ...increasing gap between rich and poor, is it the job of government to try to lessen that gap?

Cruz:  We should be fighting for the little guy who has dreams and hopes and desires.  ...   in the last six years that income mobility has gotten harder and harder for people to achieve.

Rubio:   income inequality is a symptom of a bigger problem. Opportunity inequality. ... we have safety net programs that don't cure poverty. ... if you are a major corporation or a very wealthy multi-national company you might not like big government but you can afford to deal with it.  If you're trying to start a business out of the spare bedroom of your home, you can't do any of that.

Rand Paul:  income inequality, Interestingly, worse in states led by Democrats, in cities led by Democrats and in countries led by Democrats. ...   if you're an ordinary person in our country and you're trying to save to get ahead you put your money in the bank and it gets zero.  It's because of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rate low. Why do we keep it low? Because we have this massive debt that we've gotta pay off with new money, with cheap money. And so it's all intertwined. And it's-- income inequality is indirectly, if not directly, related to big government.

Cruz:  government has two important levers to facilitate job creation and create an environment where the private sector can create jobs. And those two levers are tax reform and regulatory reform. And every single time in our history that we have simplified taxes, reduced the burden, reduced the compliance cost, simplified regulation so that small businesses which create two-thirds of all new jobs can do that. We've seen an economic boom, we've seen people climb out of poverty into prosperity. That was true in the 1920s, it was true in the 1960s, it was true in the 1980s. We know how to fix this.

Paul:  government has a role and a safety net but it needs to be transitory and it needs to be a step towards a job. ...  We have to have government for certain things that the private world can't do. But we should minimize what government does, maximize the productive sector. And you'll get more jobs created.

Minimum Wage

Cruz:  I gave a floor speech on the Senate floor with three simple charts, $10.10, the proposed Obama minimum wage. And then the next chart Marco just referenced was $0.00 which is the real Obama minimum wage because when you have the lowest labor force participation since 1978 to the millions of Americans who have lost their jobs under the Obama economy that's their minimum wage.  And then let me tell you the third number I had up there was $46.98. $46.98 is the average hourly wage of an oil and gas worker in North Dakota. And what I wanna see is an awful lot more people making $40 and $50 and $60 an hour and an awful lot less people making zero dollars a week. ...let me give you an example of this increase to $10.10 that Obama was urging. The Congressional budget office estimated up to one million people would lose their jobs. And the people who would lose their jobs are low-income,

PAUL: The minimum wage is only harmful when it's above the market wage. Okay, so when it's above the market wage it causes unemployment.

RUBIO: I'm not calling to repeal the minimum wage. I'm not saying to get rid of it as a practical matter. I think it is what it is and we don't-- that's a disruption that we don't need with all so many other disruptions happening.   ...all this focus that the president has on the minimum wage is a cure-all for the, you know, the problems being faced by working Americans is not only a waste of time, I think it shows how un-serious he really is about dealing with the challenges of our time.

Karl:  Paul Ryan had put out this plan as you all know to address the issue of poverty. And what he has proposed is an expansion of the earned income tax credit financed by closing tax loopholes. And he has specifically mentioned-- closing, you know, ending tax benefits to the oil and gas industry. And using the revenue saved there, estimates are $4 billion to $7 billion a year-- to pay for an expansion of the earned income tax credit.  do you agree with that principle of expanding federal spending on anti-poverty programs but doing them Ryan would say in a smarter way using it by closing some tax loopholes.

PAUL: When you look at the earned income tax credit, it has about a 25% fraud rate. We're looking at $20 billion to $30 billion. ... If you want to help people who are of lower wage income, working class folks, I think the better way, rather than giving something that's refundable is to give them a deducting against their social security tax so they're working and you get the deduction for work.

I'm for 100% expensing in the first year of everything you spend on your business because then you spend more and you'd buy more and your business would grow.

Rubio:  I've worked with, for example, scholars at American Enterprise Institute on a concept called wage enhancement.  It would replace the earned income tax credit instead with something called a wage enhancement, people between $15,000 and $40,000 a year... And here's why that's better. First it's tied to your paycheck as opposed to simply your tax return. As Rand just alluded to a moment ago there was significant amount of fraud in the earned income tax credit program because people will file on the return, claim that they are supporting children, some of which sometimes don't even live in the United States, some of which are not their children, they're nephews and nieces and cousins.And there is significant fraud in the EITC program. A wage enhancement would be directly tied to what you're making.  it's the same funds but you're delivering it through a different mechanism tied directly to work.

CRUZ: [Tax Reform] Yes, even revenue neutral. Though I'll tell you the fixation on revenue neutral is somewhat misguided in Washington because at least up 'till now they've used static scoring instead of dynamic scoring. So they don't look at the growth effects.

But the benefits of tax reform, if you're number one, simplifying the tax code, you reduce the compliance that cost the hundreds of billions of dollars of deadweight loss that is lost every year in tax compliance. Number two, if you do that, if you broaden the base and lower the rates, the top marginal rate is what affects the next marginal action.

But number three, look, the biggest value of tax reform is it disempowers politicians.

Cruz:  Since World War II our economy has averaged 3.3% growth.  There were only two four-year periods where growth was less than 1%, 1979 to 1982, coming out of Jimmy Carter, and 2008 to 2012. You want to turn around the deficits and debt. Let's get back to historic levels of 3%, 4%, 5% growth. That's how you turn around the deficit and debt.

Defense budget

Rubio:  every time you cut research and development in the military are eliminated options for a future commander in chief in the battlefield. We can never lose the technological edge.

Cuba

Cruz:  my aunt, my father's kid sister, was thrown in jail and tortured by Castro's goons. The human rights abuses there--it is a cruel, horrible, totalitarian regime.

When Soviet Union collapsed Venezuela stepped in as the benefactor keeping the Castros in power. right now oil prices have collapsed, Venezuela's economy is in free-fall. And at the exact moment when Cuba is reeling, this administration steps in with an economic lifeline.

In Cuba every foreign investment goes through the government, every foreign currency goes directly to the government. They pay the Cubans in pesos which means this will result in billions of dollars more for the Castro regime.   this deal will keep the Castros in power and it makes it less likely that when Fidel and Raul die they will move to a free society.

Iran: 

Rubio:  let me just add this on Iran, I think there's a distinction between Russia and Iran, The Soviet Union was terrible. It was a communist government. But it was a traditional nation state that made decisions on the cost benefit analysis of the nation state. Iran is run by radical Shia cleric who doesn't view himself as the leader of Iran. He views himself as the leader of global Islam. And he views it as his obligation to bring the whole world under the flag of Islam.

Paul:  ... try the diplomatic option as long as we can.

Cruz:  I think the threat of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capability is the single greatest national security threat facing the United States today I believe we are repeating the mistakes of the Clinton administration in the 1990s with respect to North Korea.

when you have religious leaders who glorify death or suicide, ordinary cost benefit doesn't work. Cost benefit prevents a lot of people from wrapping dynamite around their chest and walking into a mall. But the problem is if Iran ever acquired nuclear weapons I think the odds are unacceptably high that it would use those nuclear weapons

Paul:  Are you ready to send ground troops in Iran? Are you ready to bomb 'em? Are you ready to send 100,000 troops? Are you ready to send them into Iraq? Do you want 'em in Syria? Do you want 'em in Libya?

Rubio:  let me tell you about negotiations, it is a tactic that Iran is using and here's why, in 2003 the world told Iran, "You cannot have any enrichment capability." Then it became, "Okay, you can enrich but only up to 20%."

Then it became, "Okay, you can enrich over 20% but you have to ship it overseas." Now it's, "Okay, you can enrich it 20% but you can only use it to a research reactor." At this pace in five years we're gonna build the bomb for them. I mean, that's the direction this is going. They use negotiations as a tactic. And they are trying to buy as much time as possible to acquire the capability of being able to build a weapon. And once they do, they don't even have to build a weapon. They just have to prove that they have a delivery system, which they're continuing to develop, unabated and untouched by the sanctions, a weapon design that they can easily buy from multiple people around the world and the last is the enrichment capability. And if you can enrich at 3%, you can enrich at weapon grade. It's the same equipment, it just takes a little longer.

JONATHAN KARL: But Senator Paul, ask the question, so what do you want, you wanna bomb Iran?

RUBIO: I think there's a risk of a nuclear Iran is so high that nothing should ever be off the table.

Cruz:  ... Either they will cease or we will stop them.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Romney exit benefits Rubio
Post by: DougMacG on February 02, 2015, 08:05:31 PM
Without much supporting evidence, this CNN contributor says the Romney exit benefits Rubio. 
http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/30/opinion/navarrette-rubio-rising/index.html
Title: JIndal
Post by: ccp on February 04, 2015, 06:05:29 AM
Doesn't look like he can count on the Indian vote.  This is the second negative article on Jindal written by an Indian.  I think around 80% of Indians like most other Asians are Democrats.   Not like Obama who can count on the Black vote no matter what.


****Health-Care Reform
Jindal Shows How Not to Replace Obamacare

Ramesh Ponnuru
comments icon435 time iconFeb 3, 2015 12:35 PM EST
By  Ramesh Ponnuru   

It's no secret that Republicans are divided both about how to replace Obamacare and about the urgency of coming up with an alternative plan. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has just escalated that internal debate -- and shown why his side should lose it.

None of the potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates has thought more about the Affordable Care Act than Jindal, and none of the others has come up with a plan as detailed as his. Jindal's key provision is to eliminate the tax break for employer-provided health coverage and instead offer a deduction with which people could buy insurance in the individual market.

The great flaw in Jindal's plan is that it would cause millions of people to lose their coverage. Deductions are more valuable to those in high tax brackets, and they wouldn't provide much help for the lower-income people whom Obamacare allowed to enroll in Medicaid. Many of the people now covered under Obamacare's exchanges would also lose their coverage. And some of those now covered by their employers would find their plans threatened as younger and healthier employees used the new deduction to leave those plans for the individual market.

In a new op-ed, Jindal suggests that his plan has some advantages over other Republican alternatives. His target, though he doesn't name it, is a proposal outlined last year by Senators Richard Burr, Tom Coburn, and Orrin Hatch. That proposal would enable many more people to get coverage than Jindal's plan would, because it would offer tax credits instead of deductions. And it would leave most people in employer-provided coverage safe because people could use the credit to buy individual coverage only if they didn't have access to an employer plan.

Jindal identifies two defects in the higher-coverage plan, which he calls "Obamacare Lite." It would be more costly than his proposal. The way he puts it is that it would repeal only some of Obamacare's taxes instead of all of them. And it would discourage work. The credits shrink with income, so people wouldn't reap the full rewards for working longer or getting raises.

He's right about the potential effects on work, which suggests that the senators' plan should be modified: The credit should stay the same size regardless of income. If that adjustment were made, the plan would also be a bigger tax cut and thus Jindal's other concern would be addressed.

Jindal suggests that an upcoming Supreme Court case, King v. Burwell, is a reason for Republicans to put forward their own health-care plan, and he's also right about that. The court may well rule that Obamacare's subsidies for millions of people's health-insurance plans are illegal. That decision, as Jindal says, could cause "disruption."

But replacing Obamacare with Jindal's plan wouldn't do much to ameliorate that disruption, because the deduction wouldn't be an adequate replacement for the vanished subsidies. It would even increase the disruption because of its treatment of employer-provided coverage. A response based on the senators' plan would do much more to solve the problem.

Jindal is right to say that the Supreme Court case raises the stakes for Republicans trying to devise a replacement for Obamacare. It also highlights the unsuitability of his proposed solution.

To contact the author on this story:
  Ramesh Ponnuru   at rponnuru@bloomberg.net
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 09, 2015, 06:03:54 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/david-brock-resigns-priorities-usa-action-115028.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Clinton fatigue, Warren delusions
Post by: DougMacG on February 10, 2015, 08:56:00 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/david-brock-resigns-priorities-usa-action-115028.html

Who could have seen Democrat infighting coming?  This early, lol!

This could go under media issues.  They collectively support or can turn on politicians when they feel like it and turn events. 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-may-look-inevitable-but-some-iowa-democrats-are-ready-for-warren/2015/02/09/1f0063fe-b083-11e4-854b-a38d13486ba1_story.html

Democrats suffering from Clinton fatigue say they’re ready for Warren

“I’m utterly tired, tired of the Clintons and the whole establishment,” said Carol Brannon, 71, a retired nurse.

Anne Kinzel, 57, a former health-care lawyer, nodded sympathetically.

“The hacks think Hillary is entitled to be president,” Kinzel said. “I think she is one of those people who has lost the sense of why they are in politics.”

...there is unease among progressives about her largely uncontested ascent.

(Maybe if they subscribed to the forum, they would others who agree with them, and alternative solutions.  Now back to liberal drivel...)

Seeking an alternative to the juggernaut, this restless Sunday gathering at the Ames public library and others like it are popping up around the country — all part of an effort to draft populist Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) into the race...

Eight years after Obama first drew enormous crowds in Iowa on his way to the White House, these Democrats feel disappointed by his presidency and what they described as his lackluster attempts to champion economic populism.

In Warren, they sense they’ve found a fighter and a refreshing departure from the way Obama and Clinton have addressed the rising gap between the rich and poor.


(Wouldn't that be great for the gap between rich and poor, to hire a multi-millionaire professor who lied to get that position, was elected once in the most liberal state, derides all economic success, whines about unfairness, did nothing positive to earn her wealth, and will either continue or accelerate the same failed policies.  Truly Refreshing - if you are an Iowa Democrat who just watched your liberal icon Tom Harkin's Senate seat go to the pork castration party.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 10, 2015, 09:04:13 AM
Doug,

Before we get jubilant over the Crats who are "tired" of Clinton remember it is because she is not publicly liberal enough!  When the time comes for the Hill to go up against the Repubs they will all rally 'round her.

These people are not suddenly becoming Tea Party or Republicans or Independents.  They are hard core Crats. 

Hillary will almost surely be their candidate.  (I am not sure I want anyone else than her because anyone else will only be worse.)

Far more likely her than Bush is ours (GOD forbid!!!)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 10, 2015, 12:52:42 PM
ccp:  "Before we get jubilant over the Crats who are "tired" of Clinton remember it is because she is not publicly liberal enough!  When the time comes for the Hill to go up against the Repubs they will all rally 'round her.  These people are not suddenly becoming Tea Party or Republicans or Independents.  They are hard core Crats."    - Very true!  I was partly pointing out what morons they are, just having handed their asses to them in the Senate race.  And Barone pointing out that they didn't choose policies that work for the electorate when they did govern.

"Hillary will almost surely be their candidate."   - Also true.   :-(   I should have have held out for big odds and dollar menu payoffs on our bet!

I am not sure I want anyone else than her because anyone else will only be worse.

  - This is right also.  Rush was on the today.  She is not at all unbeatable and we don't need them to pick another slippery newcomer for us to try to pin down with no record.
--------------------------

Bringing this forward, Hillary, "I remember landing under sniper fire", "ran with our heads down".  "That was just sleep deprivation, or something."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZHO1vo762c

Funny thing is that the CBS reporter exposing her falsehood is Cheryl Attkisson! 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 10, 2015, 05:20:33 PM
" I should have have held out for big odds and dollar menu payoffs on our bet!"

Well, if she wins I won't have an appetite for more than bread and water mixed with lots of Maalox and Compazine.

Title: How not to run for President
Post by: DougMacG on February 11, 2015, 08:52:53 AM
An interesting look back at mistakes by category of failed candidacies of the past that no doubt applies today.  He touches on Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Bill Bradley, Wesley Clark, Rudy Giuliani, and Hillary Clinton 2008.  Getting in too late, quitting too soon, not willing to fight, wrong strategies, and other errors.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/how-not-to-run-for-president-20150206
Title: George Will: Why Indiana’s Mike Pence deserves the trust of conservatives
Post by: DougMacG on February 13, 2015, 09:04:00 PM
Don't rule out Mike Pence:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-pence-paradox/2015/02/11/e80788f8-b147-11e4-827f-93f454140e2b_story.html
Title: Stephen Hayes, Weekly Standard, Handicaps the 2016 GOP presidential Field
Post by: DougMacG on February 16, 2015, 04:02:50 PM
In reverse order—from least likely to most likely-- starting with Donald Trump, you'll never guess how this ends.   :wink:  "The case for ***** is simple: He is the most talented communicator in politics today. He is a visceral conservative who makes the case for limited government and American greatness better than anyone in the Republican field—better than anyone, anywhere.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/author/stephen-f.-hayes
A Herd of Elephants
Handicapping the 2016 GOP field
FEB 23, 2015, VOL. 20, NO. 23 • BY STEPHEN F. HAYES

It’s still two years before the next president takes the oath of office, but the contest that will determine who raises his right hand that day started in earnest last month for Republicans, with a grassroots gathering in Iowa and a meeting of high-dollar donors in California.

With that, it’s time for my highly anticipated ranking of the Republican primary field. Okay, okay—that might be a stretch. These are probably unanticipated rankings. But with the Iowa caucuses less than a year away Republicans across the country are already abuzz about the possibilities. The assessments below are based on dozens of conversations with grassroots conservatives in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina; with Republican officeholders at virtually every level of government; with national Republican strategists, fund-raisers, and operatives; with advisers and consultants to the emerging campaigns; and in several cases with the candidates themselves.

So in reverse order—from least likely to most likely—here’s a look at the prospective GOP nominees.

Donald Trump. Trump seems convinced that there is a groundswell of support for a Trump White House. And he seems confident, well, about pretty much everything. “Over the years I’ve participated in many battles and have really almost come out very, very victorious every single time,” he once said. “I’ve beaten many people and companies, and I’ve won many wars. I have fairly but intelligently earned many billions of dollars, which in a sense was both a scorecard and acknowledgment of my abilities.” Clown show.

Paul Ryan. The Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee has taken himself out of the race. He still has a better chance of being the nominee than Donald Trump.

George Pataki/Bob Ehrlich. Former Maryland governor Bob Ehrlich lost to Martin O’Malley by 14 points in 2010, a very favorable year. Any thought that Maryland was simply unwinnable for a Republican was invalidated in 2014, when a relatively unknown GOP activist named Larry Hogan defeated heavily favored Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown 51-47. It’s unclear what George Pataki, another former governor, could possibly be thinking.

Lindsey Graham/John Bolton. If Lindsey Graham decides to run, he will do so largely to ensure that a hawkish, internationalist approach to national security issues remains part of the debate. The same is true for John Bolton. They are different kinds of hawks. Bolton is harder-edged and less taken with democracy promotion than Graham, a more eager soft-power interventionist. They differ on other issues, too (interrogation, immigration, and gay marriage, to name a few). Neither man will be the nominee, but if either one appears in debates next fall, his presence will be sure to boost the foreign policy content of the proceedings.

Carly Fiorina. The former Hewlett-Packard executive in 2010 lost her bid to serve as senator from California, an unfriendly state to Republicans even in a good year for the party. She’s highly intelligent and has a lot of money but little chance of catching a wave. This feels like a play to make sure (a) Republicans have a smart woman in the debates, and (b) Fiorina is considered for a top position in a future GOP administration.

Rick Santorum. The 2012 Iowa caucuses went to Santorum for two reasons: His social conservatism was attractive to like-minded voters, particularly in the northwest part of the state, and he wasn’t Mitt Romney. Santorum is still not Mitt Romney, but with several viable candidates in the field this time, that won’t take him nearly as far as it did in 2012. As a champion of social conservatism, Santorum will be competing with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee for the same political space. If Santorum couldn’t win the nomination in 2012 with a very weak field, it’s hard to see how he wins in 2016.

Ben Carson. The accomplished neurosurgeon is wildly popular with the conservative grassroots. As Fred Barnes reported in these pages, Carson’s book outsold Hillary Clinton’s Hard Choices by nearly 100,000 copies. He talks to voters like a normal person and emphasizes a kind of everyday common sense that is in short supply in Washington. But his main asset may also prove to be his main liability. A little political incorrectness can be refreshing, but only a little. Carson has said that living in the United States under Barack Obama is “very much like Nazi Germany.” No, it’s not. But when he was asked whether he stood by his assessment, Carson wouldn’t back down.

Mike Huckabee. The former Arkansas governor consistently polls near the top of potential Republican candidates. He’s well known and has an easygoing, aw-shucks personality that makes him appealing. Huckabee showed in 2008 that he can be a very effective debater, and he is one of most entertaining and engaging speakers in politics today.

If he runs, Huckabee will emphasize middle-class economics. So will everyone else in the race, of course, but it’s a theme Huckabee has been hitting for years—the divide between “Wall Street and Main Street.” In an NBC News debate in October 2007, a full year before the economic crisis, Huckabee chastised his fellow Republicans for happy-talk about the economy under George W. Bush.

Voters are “going to hear Republicans on this stage talk about how great the economy is, and, frankly, when they hear that, they’re going to probably reach for the dial. I want to make sure people understand that for many people on this stage, the economy’s doing terrifically well, but for a lot of Americans it’s not doing so well. The people who handle the bags and make the beds at our hotels and serve the food, many of them are having to work two jobs, and that’s barely paying the rent.”

Huckabee doesn’t speak for long without dropping a corny cliché. “Voters want inspiration, not just information,” he told me last March. A successful candidate is someone who “plans your work and works your plan.” The problem with Mitt Romney in 2012: “Nobody cares how much you know unless they know how much you care.”

If he sounds a bit like someone hawking natural remedies for diabetes or who wants to warn you about “Seven Things That Activate Alzheimer’s in Your Brain,” it’s because he’s doing just that. Although he left his Fox News show to explore a presidential run, Huckabee is still sending out spammy emails to his political list to raise money. And, as Andrew Ferguson wrote in these pages last week, “Huckabee seems to want to cement his image in the public mind not as a successful governor of an unsuccessful state but as a preacher and a talk show host. It is a deadly combination.”

Bobby Jindal. The Louisiana governor has a well-deserved reputation as a policy wonk and an equally well-deserved reputation as an eager and ambitious politician who is relentlessly on message. Among the main questions for Jindal: Can he make Republican primary voters want to have the proverbial beer with him or will they mostly look to him as a guy who gives a great PowerPoint presentation on the complexities of Medicaid funding mechanisms? He’s surrounded himself with a first-rate team. If they can’t manufacture a Jindal surge, no one can.

Rand Paul. Rand Paul is probably the best organized candidate in the Republican field. He has a vast network of eager employees and volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada—the first four contests next year. He has quietly secured endorsements from more than a dozen Republicans in Congress, and he is aggressively pressuring others to commit to him now. His events draw large crowds that often look more like a campus diversity rally than a typical county Republican chicken dinner. He deserves—and receives—credit for his outreach to groups that seldom vote Republican. Media coverage of Paul as a prospective candidate is often filled with praise for this outreach, and so are Paul’s own speeches.

Time recently put Paul on its cover and declared him “the most interesting man in politics.” That alone is probably enough to get him generally positive media coverage. And the fact that many of his arguments reinforce media stereotypes of Republicans—that they’re arrogant in the conduct of foreign policy, that they’re closed-minded about minorities, that they’re priggish about morality—ensures that such favorable coverage will likely continue.

But as Paul learned recently with the dust-up over his comments on vaccines (he suggested a link between vaccines and “profound mental disorders”)—and might have learned a while back amid controversy over comments about the 1964 Civil Rights Act—thinking out loud as a presidential candidate is very different from debating with college buddies between bong hits. In both cases, Paul was forced to issue clarifications in which he claimed not to have said what he had plainly said. Beyond that, some of the very things that win Paul praise from the media put him at odds with Republican primary voters. Shortly before Russia began its annexation of Crimea, Paul scolded hawks for failing to show enough “respect” to Vladimir Putin. He has supported Obama policy on Iran and Cuba, and when he criticizes the president on national security, he usually does so from the left.

But Paul’s biggest problem may be that he’s not yet a very good candidate. In late January, he appeared onstage at a Koch brothers seminar in California alongside Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The format of the panel discussion, moderated by Jonathan Karl of ABC News, allowed candidates to respond to one another and to give longer answers than a typical TV interview or debate. Paul bombed. His answers—sometimes short and snide, sometimes long and incoherent—were met with widespread disapproval from the audience. And the response to a speech he gave was even worse. Paul wandered around the stage in jeans and blazer as he spoke about—well, it was hard to tell.

Paul inherits many of his father’s backers and, with his determined effort to appear less crazy than his father, will expand on that base of support. In a contest with the number of candidates potentially reaching double digits, Paul will be a player. And his combination of fundraising ability and vanity ensures that he’ll probably remain in the field for a long time.

The biggest question: Will he consider an independent bid for the White House when he loses the Republican nomination?

Chris Christie. It wasn’t too long ago that Chris Christie was considered a top candidate—maybe the frontrunner—for the 2016 nomination. In November 2013, with Republicans still smarting from the Obama reelection, Christie was reelected in blue New Jersey with more than 60 percent of the vote, winning every county but Essex and Hudson. Executives at the major news networks liked Christie, who seemed to take as much joy in poking Republicans in the eye as he did Democrats. He famously hugged Barack Obama shortly before the 2012 elections and then, in the fight over emergency funding for Hurricane Sandy, repeatedly blasted Republicans in Washington for their spending concerns. He didn’t necessarily love journalists but he seemed to thrive on the attention they lavished on him. It wasn’t hard to imagine Christie running for the Republican nomination on the McCain model, winning praise from the media for taking on Republicans even as he asked Republicans for their support.

But the so-called Bridgegate controversy ended that. The mainstream media treated the story as if it were a national scandal, with regular updates on network newscasts and morning shows and saturation-coverage in national newspapers. (For an instructive look at media priorities, compare the excessive national media coverage of Christie’s “Bridgegate” and the negligible coverage of the Obama administration’s IRS scandal.) While the coverage overplayed Christie’s culpability, it nonetheless did real damage to one of his main selling points: electability. Christie is now better known than most of his rivals and thought of less favorably than all of them.

It’s hard enough for a strong conservative to get a second look in a Republican primary (ask Rick Perry), but it’ll be even harder for the man perceived as the most moderate in the field. Ask a group of conservative activists about him and among the first things you’ll hear is complaints about “the hug.” That’s usually followed by a litany of policy complaints, including Christie’s decision to expand Medicaid under Obamacare. It’s not just that Christie expanded Medicaid, but that he did so not long after scolding Washington politicians, including Republicans, for being afraid to tackle big problems. In that speech at the American Enterprise Institute, Christie portrayed himself as a brave truthteller, willing to talk about reforming entitlements when others won’t. “If we’re not honest about these things,” he thundered, “we’re on the path to ruin.” Medicaid in particular, he said, is “not only bankrupting the federal government, it’s bankrupting every state government.”

Still, Christie remains popular with some donors, and his style could be very effective in debates, especially if he’s willing to be the guy who launches the toughest attacks on Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

John Kasich. On paper, Ohio governor John Kasich is a first-tier candidate. He’s got a strong record as a budget hawk in a time of record deficits. He has D.C. experience but he’s not “of Washington.” He’s well known to Fox News viewers from his days hosting a popular weekend show. He can claim that he straightened out Ohio’s finances and brightened its economic outlook. And, crucially, he decisively won reelection last year in what is arguably the most important presidential swing state, with nearly double the votes of his Democrat opponent. And yet Kasich will be something of a long shot if he runs.

Why? On key issues for many GOP primary voters, he’s on the unpopular side: He favors citizenship for undocumented immigrants, Common Core, and he is a passionate defender of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare. Rhetorically, his self-assurance can slip into cockiness. His default stance often seems to be defensiveness. He answers even routine questions as if he’s being attacked. As a consequence, Kasich comes across as “holier than thou.”

Kasich justified his decision to expand Medicaid under Obamacare by suggesting that those with a different approach are un-Christian. “When you die and get to the meeting with St. Peter, he’s probably not going to ask you much about what you did about keeping government small, but he’s going to ask you what you did for the poor.” Suggesting that morality is gauged by a willingness to spend other people’s money is a perfect way to anger conservatives, and he’s done so regularly. It’s compassionate conservatism with an added layer of condescension. When asked about Kasich’s claim, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who did not expand Medicaid, had a sharp response. “My reading of the Bible finds plenty of reminders that it’s better to teach someone to fish than to give them fish if they’re able. .  .  . Caring for the poor isn’t the same as taking money from the federal government to lock more people into Medicaid.”

Walker himself may present the biggest obstacle to Kasich. If Republican primary voters want a reform-minded governor from the Midwest, Walker is likely to be the first choice.

Rick Perry. Rick Perry’s biggest challenge in 2016 is Rick Perry in 2012. Perry charged into that race as a successful governor who would present the biggest challenge to Mitt Romney. He left it amidst stories of harsh infighting between his top advisers and as a punchline for late-night comedians. The mere mention of Perry’s name at a gathering of Republicans today elicits laughter and shouts of “oops.” It’s hard to recover from that.

But Perry is trying and making some headway. Ask grassroots conservatives in Iowa and New Hampshire which potential candidate has worked hardest over the last year to build relationships and set himself up for the contest next year and you hear Perry’s name as often as any other. He is a good retail politician and a strong fundraiser. Good enough to replace the memories of 2012? That’s the question.

Mike Pence. Like John Kasich, Pence left a position of prominence among Republicans in the House of Representatives for the governor’s mansion of his home state. But unlike Kasich, Pence didn’t replace a Democrat. He took the job from popular and successful Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. So Pence didn’t have the clean-up job that Kasich (or Walker) had upon taking office. Pence’s charge was to build on the reforms Daniels had implemented, and he’s done that, moving quickly to cut taxes and expand school choice.

Pence is a movement conservative and a talented communicator. He’s an old-school, Reagan-style conservative—hawkish on national security, unwavering on issues of importance to social conservatives, and a consistent economic conservative. If he runs, he will have an opportunity to appeal to grassroots conservatives without scaring establishment and big-money Republicans.

The early betting was that Pence would seek the chairmanship of the Republican Governors Association. When he didn’t, many Washington Republicans took his decision as a sign that he would run. Sources with ties to three rival campaigns say they expect Pence will pass on the race. Pence won’t make a decision until after the state’s legislative session adjourns in April.

Ted Cruz. The junior senator from Texas doesn’t have many friends in Washington. He’s hated by Democrats and loathed by many Republicans, too. These are reasons to believe he will outperform expectations as a presidential candidate. In just two years, Cruz has managed to position himself as the loudest and most unrelenting opponent of the Washington political establishment. The conventional wisdom is that this inability to play well with others makes his presidential ambitions almost delusional. In reality, Cruz is in a pretty good place, with approval of Congress at 16 percent and faith in public institutions lower than post-Watergate lows.

Cruz will be the most conservative candidate in the field. He knows what he believes and why he believes it. And he’s smart. His challenge will be to show that his antagonism is directed at Washington and not a character trait. He will need to be smart without seeming pleased by his own intelligence. He’ll need to talk to voters without appearing to lecture them—and he’ll need to do a lot of listening.

Cruz gave a solid speech at the recent GOP gathering in Iowa. But several attendees complained that he blew in like a political celebrity, with an outsized entourage and little time to spend with voters. In some cases, the same voters who nodded in approval with Cruz’s call for a new order in Washington were shaking their heads at his unapproachability in Des Moines.

Still, few names generate more enthusiasm among the conservative grassroots than Ted Cruz. That’s a huge advantage if he can capitalize on it.

Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush has made clear that he will run an unorthodox campaign, deploying social media in innovative ways. He is making public volumes of email from his tenure as Florida governor. He is telling people that his campaign will reimagine the traditional roles of advisers and staff—even of the candidate himself. And he has said that he wants to win in the primaries by running as a general election candidate.

Bush’s early entry and aggressive pitch to contributors (he’s asking for big bucks and often a pledge of donor exclusivity) were intended to scare off or intimidate would-be challengers. There’s no doubt it played a major role in Mitt Romney’s decision not to run, despite his eagerness to mount a third bid. And Bush certainly impressed the shapers of conventional wisdom in the political media—who immediately bestowed upon him the designation “frontrunner.” Bush may end up the nominee, but he’s far from the shoo-in that money Republicans (and the reporters who listen to them) seem to believe.

Many movement conservatives are hostile to the idea of another Bush in the White House. They still remember George H. W. Bush’s broken “no new taxes” pledge and the orgy of spending that ended George W. Bush’s administration (the culmination of years of profligacy). They blame the last Bush administration for giving us the Obama administration. They focus on the two issues where Jeb Bush is at odds with the party base—immigration and Common Core—and they talk about Jeb as if he will fill the Mitt Romney/establishment moderate slot in the 2016 Republican primary.

Some of this is unfair. Jeb is the most conservative of the three Bushes. As Florida governor, he pushed aggressively for conservative reforms and wasn’t afraid to challenge moderate Republicans in the legislature and the business community. He calls himself a conservative because he regards himself as a conservative, not because consultants tell him it’s what voters want to hear, and he usually describes his conservatism without unnecessary qualifiers like “compassionate” or “severe.”

The skepticism between Jeb Bush and the GOP base is mutual. If conservatives are wary of a Bush candidacy, it’s at least in part because he has made them so. Conservatives focus on Bush’s views on Common Core and immigration because Bush focuses on them. There’s no doubt he pushes as hard as he does because he believes deeply that he’s right. But after emphasizing issues on which he differs from many Republicans, Bush shouldn’t be surprised that many Republicans regard him as something of a renegade.

The challenge for Bush is not primarily that he has these differences with the GOP base, it’s that he sometimes talks about these differences in a tone that suggests those who disagree are either backward or bigoted. During an RNC fundraiser in Ohio last summer, Bush participated in a discussion with contributors. One donor asked Bush about the Common Core “curriculum.” According to several sources in the room, Bush angrily chastised the questioner for his failure to understand the issue and noted that Common Core isn’t a curriculum but a set of standards. His tone was harsh enough that it caused more than one attendee to conclude that Bush wasn’t running for president.

Bush has said that it’s important for a candidate to be willing to “lose the primary to win the general without violating your principles”—a comment that many took as a declaration that he will not pander to conservatives in order to win the Republican nomination. There’s a delicate balance between refusing to pander (positive) and showing disdain for the base (counterproductive).

In February 2014, as he was touring a schoolhouse near Miami, Bush was asked whether he would run for president. Among the most important questions he would have to answer, Bush said, was: “Can I do this joyfully?”

For the final two: It’s a coin toss. If I were betting on the likely GOP nominee today, I’d put the same amount on Walker and Rubio (with a chunk on Jeb, too).

Scott Walker. If Scott Walker’s early success has surprised some Washington-based political reporters, it didn’t surprise many in the conservative grassroots or those familiar with his political career in Wisconsin. The question was never whether Walker would be a first-tier candidate, it was how quickly he would become one and whether he could remain there once he did. With Walker at or near the top of polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire, we have an answer to the first question, and the answer to the second may well determine whether Walker is the nominee.

Walker’s case is a simple one: I fight on behalf of conservative principles and I win. This is true electorally and substantively. According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the 47-year-old governor has run in more elections than any other candidate in the field, and he’s won more than any other candidate in the field.

Walker served in the state assembly before he was rather improbably elected Milwaukee county executive in 2002. Milwaukee is a heavily Democratic county, but Walker ran as the man who would clean up after a worse-than-Hollywood pension scandal that featured, among other things, officeholders secretly voting themselves huge raises in the middle of the night. As county executive, Walker implemented a series of cost-cutting measures designed to bring the local government to heel. Democrats and their backers in the public sector unions fought Walker’s every move. He was reelected anyway.

Walker gained national prominence in 2011, his first year as governor, during the fight over his budget reforms and the subsequent attempt by unions and Democrats to recall him. His reforms passed, and he wiped out a $3.6 billion biennial deficit. The 2012 recall failed, and last year Walker was elected to a second term as governor. Immediately after his recall victory, Walker publicly urged Mitt Romney to change strategy, from his cautious attempt to win a referendum on Barack Obama to a bold, reform-minded insurgent’s campaign to change the country. Romney largely rejected Walker’s advice. But Walker, who received a four-minute standing ovation at the 2012 Republican convention before he started his speech, was clearly onto something.

Walker has moved quickly to start his presidential bid. He put in place an experienced team to run his exploring-in-name-only effort, including former RNC political director Rick Wiley and veteran GOP strategist Ed Goeas. Last week, Wiley supervised the opening of an Iowa office for Walker’s presidential PAC. Goeas, meanwhile, quietly started making the rounds on Capitol Hill, seeking to open lines of communication between conservatives in Congress and Walker. “I was just doing due diligence,” Goeas told The Weekly Standard.

Walker will run a positive campaign, sticking closely to Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment forbidding attacks on fellow Republicans. In part, that’s because Walker has had good relationships with several other competitors. He consulted Jeb Bush regularly for advice on politics and governance and developed a friendship with Chris Christie. (Walker’s wife, Tonette, a sharp political observer in her own right, became friends with Christie’s wife, Mary Pat.)

Walker faces two main challenges: maintaining support from conservatives as he details his views on issues and presenting himself as a steady hand on foreign policy and national security matters. Republican primary voters know Walker primarily for his fight against the unions. On other issues, voters assume Walker will be with them. He’s a full-spectrum conservative, so in most instances these voters will be right. But the details will matter. Walker opted not to mount a big fight on gay marriage, disappointing some evangelicals. He’s for a middle path on immigration reform, something that won’t satisfy either hardcore restrictionists or open-borders libertarians.

On national security, Walker faces the dilemma of any governor running for president. He spends his days and nights focused on Wisconsin-specific domestic policy issues and consequently won’t know the details of, say, the make-up of ISIS or tensions with Russia in the same way that a senator on the Intelligence Committee might. He’s studying—Walker met recently with Henry Kissinger and George Shultz and will be seeing General Jack Keane for briefings in March—but he’s got a state to run.

Walker’s instincts are hawkish. In a recent interview on ABC’s This Week, Martha Raddatz pushed Walker on the proper U.S. response to ISIS. When he said it has to be more “aggressive,” she pushed back, asking how he could say that a campaign of some 2,000 airstrikes wasn’t aggressive. Walker didn’t back down, but he didn’t dispute her very questionable claim. (The United States and its allies conducted 10,000 airstrikes in Kosovo over just 78 days, so, no, 2,000 over six months isn’t actually an “aggressive” campaign.) Walker said that America would have to consider ground troops in Syria if ISIS continued to develop as a threat. It is not only a defensible answer; it’s the right one. But Walker was short on details, and reporters will soon begin to demand them.

Marco Rubio. The conventional wisdom about a Rubio for president campaign has swung wildly over the past two months. In the weeks after the 2014 midterms, commentators mused about a Rubio bid as if it were a sure thing. But when Jeb Bush made clear that he was likely to run, the peddlers of conventional wisdom were sure Rubio wouldn’t challenge his mentor. Last week, Rubio hired well-regarded New Hampshire political strategist Jim Merrill, and the commentariat quickly concluded that he was in. Interviewed by Hugh Hewitt, Rubio said: “I wouldn’t be running against Jeb Bush. If I ran, I would run because I believe I’m the right person for the right time in our country’s history.” The reality is that very few people know if Rubio will run, but unless something changes his thinking, he is far more likely to run than not. His wife is supportive, his team is prepared, and a decision is imminent.

As for Walker, the case for Rubio is simple: He is the most talented communicator in politics today. He is a visceral conservative who makes the case for limited government and American greatness better than anyone in the Republican field—better than anyone, anywhere. And he has used his short time in Congress to make himself a leading Republican voice on national security and foreign policy, serving on both the Foreign Relations and Intelligence committees.

At the Koch Forum where Rand Paul bombed, Rubio stood out. On the panel discussion with Paul and Cruz, Rubio was, at turns, funny and thoughtful. His quick wit elicited laughter from the audience several times over the 90-minute conversation. The second half of the discussion focused on national security, and Rubio took the opportunity to demonstrate his fluency on the subject matter, offering detailed analyses of the country’s problems and solutions that made clear he’d spent a considerable amount of time on them.

Rubio’s best moment came the following day, however, when he addressed the group about the promise of America. Rubio spoke for 30 minutes without notes and captivated the crowd with stories of his grandfather and his parents. Rubio’s speeches often convey a sense of humility and wonder that he’s risen to a place where he might influence the direction of the American experiment in self-governance. Rubio manages to tell convincingly the kinds of only-in-America stories that might come off as hackneyed and manipulative from other politicians. Maybe that’s because they’re often personal for him. Maybe he’s just a better story-teller than most. Whatever the explanation, Rubio can drown skepticism about America’s future with reminders about the country’s past and, in the process, give goosebumps to a cynic.

When I sat in on Rubio’s debate-prep sessions for a profile I wrote in 2010, I was blown away by his ability to think on his feet. Rubio routinely came up with memorable one-liners that other candidates would pay consultants thousands of dollars to imagine. He wasn’t as conversant on foreign policy back then, but he spoke with great authority on the issues that he had worked on at the state level.

Because of their youth, their speaking ability, and their similar career paths, Rubio frequently draws comparisons to Obama. If this was once a compliment, that’s no longer the case. Team Rubio pushes back hard against the parallels. Obama was a nonentity in the Illinois state senate, they argue, avoiding controversial issues by voting present and devoting considerable time to boosting his future prospects. Rubio, by contrast, held leadership posts for eight of his eight and a half years in the legislature, including stints as majority whip and majority leader before becoming speaker of the Florida house at the age of 35. He spent his time advancing the agenda of the legislature’s Republicans and Governor Jeb Bush.

Like Bush, Rubio was a proponent of comprehensive immigration reform and worked toward a solution as part of the Gang of Eight in the Senate. Rubio said at the time that he thought it better to participate in those negotiations and attempt to shape the outcome than to sit it out and risk a bad law. It’s an issue that has made a segment of the Republican base suspicious of his conservative bona fides.

Another potential obstacle for Rubio is his friendship with former Rep. David Rivera. Rubio and Rivera co-owned a house in Tallahassee while they served in the legislature and have been friends for years. Rivera is a shady figure whose fundraising and campaign practices have gotten him in legal trouble over the years. If Rubio runs, his opponents will doubtless seek to highlight their friendship and link Rubio with Rivera’s misdeeds.

The conventional wisdom suggests Rubio will have trouble raising money with Jeb Bush in the race. Perhaps. But Rubio won the straw poll of attendees at the Koch seminar in January, and he’s been a strong fundraiser over his time in the Senate.

The 2016 GOP field has strengths and weaknesses, good candidates and bad ones. And maybe Donald Trump. The recent history of presidential contests suggests Republicans will have a hard time winning the White House. The demography-is-destiny crowd will tell you it’ll be nearly impossible.

But Barack Obama’s attempt to make big government popular again has resulted instead in greater skepticism of government. And if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, she’ll have to answer a very difficult question: What does the party of government do when fewer and fewer people believe in government?

And how will Clinton explain her role in an administration that saw American overreach as a greater threat than radical Islam or Russian aggression or Iranian nuclear weapons? The world is a mess, and it’s abundantly clear that so-called smart power has left America weaker and at greater risk than at any time in recent memory. That’s not just the view of Republicans or administration critics, but of top administration officials themselves. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel says the “world is exploding all over.” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper says: “Looking back over my more than half a century in intelligence, I have not experienced a time when we have been beset by more crises and threats around the globe.”

These issues will matter. And so will the candidates who discuss them. I like Republican chances.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 16, 2015, 05:20:40 PM
A thoughtful piece Doug.
Title: Morris: GOP's Electoral Cliff
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 18, 2015, 04:15:27 PM

GOP's Electoral Cliff
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on February 17, 2015
The 3.9 percentage point margin by which President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 clouds the challenge the Republicans face in 2016. Unless they are able to improve their standing by 5 to 6 points in the key electoral states, they cannot win.

Romney got 206 electoral votes (carrying his closest state, North Carolina, by only 2.2 points). To add to this total, much less to bring it up to the 270 needed to win, Republicans must carry a number of states where they lost by 5 or more points in 2012.

Here are the closest states that went for Obama in 2012:

• Florida: 29 votes; margin 0.9 points

• Ohio: 18 votes; margin 1.9 points

• Virginia: 13 votes; margin 3.0 points

• Colorado: 9 votes; margin 4.7 points

• Pennsylvania: 20 votes; margin 5.2 points

• Iowa: 6 votes; margin 5.6 points

• New Hampshire: 4 votes; margin 5.8 points

• Nevada: 6 votes; margin 6.6 points

• Wisconsin: 10 votes; margin 6.7 points

Note how sharply Obama's margins increase as we scroll down the list to marginal states he carried in 2012. Taking Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, combined with the ones Romney carried, would suffice to reach a majority. A tall order, indeed.

If the 2016 Republican candidate were merely to close the gap in the popular vote -- and this were reflected in the swing states -- he would still lose, getting only 268 of the 270 he needs to win. He has to do better to win. If the vote in swing states reflected the overall national vote, the GOP nominee in 2016 would need to win by 2 points in order to eke out a bare electoral majority. A George W. Bush 2000 performance would not cut it (Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore by 0.5 percentage points). Even the 2004 margin by which Bush defeated John Kerry, 2.4 points, would prove only barely adequate, representing a 5.4-point swing.

The results of 2014 give Republicans hope as they contemplate the electoral map. They carried Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Ohio and came very close in Virginia. So scaling the electoral mountain is quite possible for a Republican.

In this context, we Republicans must look for a candidate who brings an electoral vote edge with him. In a sense, the criterion that normally governs the selection of a vice president must now intrude into our choice for president.

Jeb Bush brings with him obvious strength in Florida, where he served as a popular governor for two terms. Similarly, Sen. Marco Rubio would have an edge in that state. But any Republican has got to win Florida to have a chance, and just winning Florida would leave him far behind nationally.

Similarly, John Kasich's edge in Ohio simply helps a Republican win a state he has to carry but that would still leave him shy of the 270 he needed (assuming he carried both Florida and Ohio).

Only Scott Walker of Wisconsin appears to offer the chance for a decisive shift in the electoral vote. Having won election twice and survived a statewide recall vote, his ability to carry a state Romney lost is pretty well established. Were Walker able to carry Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin, he would need only seven more electoral votes to win, which he could pick up in Virginia or Colorado.

Viewed another way, a Hispanic Republican candidate would give the party a much better shot at Colorado's nine votes and Nevada's six, in addition, of course, to Florida's 29.

But without Wisconsin or Hispanic candidate, the electoral challenge is daunting, indeed.
Title: Re: Morris: GOP's Electoral Cliff
Post by: DougMacG on February 19, 2015, 08:57:43 AM
In 2016, we aren't going to be running the 2012 election scenario again.  1) Obama's amazing hold on the black vote and historic turnout of same is over.  2) Obama's claim of foreign policy success is over.  3) Obama's power of incumbency is over, and most certainly a negative for Hillary or whoever.  4) Romney's inability to land a punch (see Candy Crowley debate), his inability to defend the free enterprise system, and his inability to bring out millions of conservative voters will also (hopefully) not be on the ballot.  5) The Republican nominee will most likely not be someone he can be easily painted as a fat cat who doesn't care about people like me.  

2016 will not be the year of the resume.  Republicans are going to run (I predict) a vision of freedom and the American Dream against the decaying stagnation of big government statism.  If not the candidate I've pointed out, then someone else who can do that as well or better.

There are factors offsetting the demographic gains that Democrats are allegedly winning with the increasing numbers of "non-whites" in "swing states".  The electorate is getting older. (http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016-20150218)  Dems are losing even more white voters. (http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-america/newsdesk/the-most-valuable-voters-of-2016-20150218)  Dem and leftist economics failed its core constituents.  Working class wages are stagnant.  Facts are stubborn things.  So-called blue collar workers are turning Republican.  (http://www.npr.org/2015/01/02/374511123/democrats-problem-white-working-class-voters) Minorities are unemployed and underemployed, and income disparity, their main economic argument, widened under their watch.  With Obama off the ballot, their share of black voters and the phenomenal turnout drops substantially.  (See 2010, 2014:  http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2014/11/where_did_all_the_black_voters_go_on_election_day.html)  The presumed Dem candidate has no idea how to embrace Obama's personal  political victories and retain his voters while rejecting the failures of his policies, which by the way were identical to her policies.  (http://www.factcheck.org/2008/01/peas-in-a-pod/)

The idea that a state like Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada or New Hampshire could not swing the other way with the right candidate and the right message might be disputed by people like Jodi Ernst, Scott Walker, Cory Gardner, Brian Sandoval and Kelly Ayotte.  In a wave election, Republicans take all of these with decent margins, just as Obama did in 2008.  Govern well and you hold the Presidency through to 2025.  Easy or automatic?  No.  Possible?  Yes.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 02, 2015, 11:16:26 AM
All other things equal, I like the background preference to have a two term governor be President and have sufficient public sector executive experience coming into he first day.  Yet I don't put that above getting it right on policy and possessing the ability to connect, communicate, persuade people and lead.

The problem with Barack Obama is not his relatively young age nor is it his lack of executive experience.  His biggest problem is that he is headed in the wrong direction.

Truman didn't have a college degree and Lincoln didn't have executive experience.  Healthcare.gov didn't crash because of Obama's short tenure in the Senate.  His programs are failing because they are wrongheaded, IMHO.  This is not a competence election coming up.  We are not looking for who can best manage our giant status quo of bureaucracy.  This is a change-of-direction election.  We are looking for who has the best vision and detailed plans to turn this around and who can connect, change minds and lead people to get it down.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 10, 2015, 02:47:32 AM

By
Patrick O’Connor
Updated March 9, 2015 11:35 p.m. ET
86 COMMENTS

The two most recognizable figures in the 2016 presidential race start off in very different positions within their own parties, and with Americans overall feeling more positive toward Hillary Clinton than Jeb Bush .

Those findings in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll reinforce the view that while the Democrats’ nominating contest now looks like a foregone conclusion, provided Mrs. Clinton enters the race, the Republican contest appears to be wide open, with no clear front-runner.


The survey found that 86% of likely Democratic primary voters say they are open to supporting Mrs. Clinton for the party’s nomination, and 13% said they couldn’t. Those polled view the former secretary of state more favorably than unfavorably, with 44% holding positive views and 36% with negative views of her.

Mr. Bush, an early favorite for the Republican nomination among GOP donors, faces more resistance within his party. Some 49% of people who plan to vote in GOP primaries said they could see themselves supporting Mr. Bush and 42% said they couldn’t, the survey found. Poll participants view him more negatively than positively, with 34% seeing him in an unfavorable light and 23% viewing him favorably.
More than 40% of GOP primary voters could not picture supporting Jeb Bush as the Republican nominee, a new WSJ/NBC News poll finds. WSJ's Patrick O'Connor explains. Photo: Getty

The Journal/NBC poll of 1,000 adults was conducted March 1 through 5, a period when news reports surfaced disclosing Mrs. Clinton’s exclusive use of a private email account to conduct official business as secretary of state. Critics and some fellow Democrats have said the disclosures raise questions about Mrs. Clinton’s commitment to transparency in public office.

The two Republicans who begin the race on the strongest footing in the poll are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. More than half of GOP primary voters said they were open to supporting Messrs. Rubio or Walker, compared with 49% who said so of Mr. Bush.

Resistance within the party to Messrs. Rubio and Walker is far lower than for Mr. Bush: Some 26% said they couldn’t see themselves supporting Mr. Rubio, and 17% said so of the Wisconsin governor.

The good news for Mr. Bush is that he has nearly a year to reshape his image before voting begins, and none of his likely rivals shows signs of running away with the race.
Poll Methodology

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll was based on nationwide telephone interviews of 1,000 adults, including 350 respondents who use only a cellphone. It was conducted from March 1-5, 2015, by the polling organizations of Bill McInturff at Public Opinion Strategies and Fred Yang at Hart Research Associates. Individuals were selected proportionate to the nation’s population in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all landline telephone numbers, listed and unlisted, an equal chance to be included. Adults age 18 or over were selected by a systematic procedure to provide a balance of respondents by sex. The cellphone sample was drawn from a list of cellphone users nationally. Of the 1,000 interviews, 350 respondents were reached on a cellphone and screened to ensure their cellphone was the only phone they had. In addition, 36 respondents were reached on a cellphone but reported also having a landline. The data’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sample tolerances for subgroups are larger.

In fact, he would begin the 2016 campaign in much the same place that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney began the 2012 race in which he locked up the nomination after a long primary slog. Mr. Romney was viewed positively by 43% of GOP primary voters and negatively by 12% about a year before primary voting began, about the same as Mr. Bush is viewed among GOP primary voters today.

“He still has room to change his image,” Mr. Yang, the Democratic pollster, said of Mr. Bush. He noted that 43% of the public is still on the fence about Mr. Bush or doesn’t know him well enough to form an opinion.

Messrs. Rubio and Walker are the two most acceptable candidates across different segments of the GOP, including very conservative voters and those moderate-to-liberal Republicans who say they would vote in a GOP primary. Of the two, Mr. Walker remains more of an unknown; more than half the country—including a quarter of Republican primary voters—said they didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

“We should be cautious about how unformed this race is,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democrat Fred Yang.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would start the race in a deep hole, the new survey found, with 57% of likely GOP primary voters saying they couldn’t see themselves supporting his candidacy, compared with the 32% who said they could. Only Donald Trump , the businessman and reality television star, fared worse, with three out of four primary voters doubtful they could support him.

Mrs. Clinton would enter the 2016 race enjoying widespread support across just about every slice of the potential Democratic electorate, with 80% or more of every sub-group-men, women, liberals, centrist, whites and non-whites among them-saying they could see themselves voting for her.

“Sen. Clinton’s numbers are just extraordinary,” said Mr. McInturff. “She is like one of those large naval ships. It will take more than one torpedo to sink the boat.”

One attribute of both Mr. Bush and Mrs. Clinton—their membership in prominent political families—seems to weigh on them to varying degrees. Some 59% of those polled say they are looking for a presidential candidate “who will bring greater changes” over one who is “more experienced and tested.”

Some 51% view Mrs. Clinton, a former first lady and New York senator, more as a return to the past than a candidate for the future, compared with the 44% who say the reverse, according to the new poll.

For Mr. Bush, 60% of the country sees the first-time White House hopeful—the son and brother of the last two Republican presidents—as a figure representing the past, compared with the 27% who agreed with the statement that he would bring “new ideas and vision the country will need for the future.”

“We just seem to be stuck in this rut—the Clintons and the Bushes,” said Isabel Sovocool, a 43-year-old preschool teacher from Quakertown, Pa., who voted for Mr. Bush’s brother, former President George W. Bush, and his father, former President George H.W. Bush, but has no desire to vote for the former Florida governor. “It just seems to go around in circles. And I don’t think things are getting all that better.”

The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.1%, but higher for the Republican and Democratic primary voters.

The survey pointed to a challenge for Republicans in addressing middle-class economic anxieties. Nearly half of all respondents, some 47%, said the GOP doesn’t represent the values of the middle class “very well,” compared with the 33% who said that about Democrats. Similarly, Mrs. Clinton scored much higher on the question than Mr. Bush.

Additionally, those polled are more likely to see improvements in the economy than they were a year ago. Almost half, some 47%, credited President Barack Obama for those gains.

The survey also found that Americans are willing to adopt a war footing against Islamic State. Some 55% of the country would look more favorably on a candidate who supports the use of combat troops to battle the Islamic militants. That includes roughly three-out-of-four Republicans and a plurality of liberal Democratic primary voters.
Popular on WSJ


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 14, 2015, 06:08:39 PM
Every time Bush says he is the grown up in the room I feel like he is insulting me and others who would consider themselves conservative

I think he should be careful who he insults.   He will not get a vote from me if he keeps this up.

I will sit out '16.   
Title: 2016 Presidential - 21 Democrats who could maybe take Hillary Clinton's place
Post by: DougMacG on March 17, 2015, 12:10:58 PM
This list doesn't add much to what is already posted in this thread.  Hard to take serious anyone listed behind Bernie Sanders, Terry McAuliffe, and others.  But who knows?
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/21-democrats-who-could-maybe-take-hillary-clintons-place-in-2016/article/2561521
...
Here, in roughly ascending order of feasibility, are 21 prominent or semi-prominent Democrats who could step up for a 2016 presidential run:

Dannel Malloy
Malloy was supposed to be headed for a tough 2014 re-election race for governor of Connecticut, but he ended up winning easily. A spokesman said he was not interested in the Oval Office — but also indicated the Washington Examiner is not the first publication to ask. "As the Governor has said repeatedly, he loves his current job as Governor of Connecticut and has no interest in running for President," Malloy's office said. "He believes that should Secretary Clinton become a candidate for President, she has the outstanding credentials, experience and record to be a very strong candidate."

Tom Udall
The son of a Kennedy-era secretary of the interior and nephew of a powerful Arizona congressman, Udall won a senate seat in New Mexico in 2009. He brings no youth at age 66, but he hails from American royalty. Udalls have had starring political roles in the American Southwest for more than a century. Is it time for a President Udall? Udall declined to comment.

Bernie Sanders
Vermont's junior senator is the most prominent (out of the closet) socialist in American politics, a status that makes him a favorite with reporters (because he gives good copy) and the Democratic base (because he's a socialist). Strangely, the usually forthright and garrulous Sanders has turned coy about his previous 2016 talk. Sanders told Politico Friday he was not eager to run "a poor campaign" that was "not well funded," adding that he had not raised much money. The 73-year-old did not respond to Examiner requests for comment.

Jay Nixon
For better or worse, the Ferguson riots made the governor of Missouri a national figure, and he declined to give a flat "No" when Politico asked him about being a potential Hillary replacement in February — before the email story broke. Nixon did not respond to requests for comment.

Bill Nelson
At 72 years young, the senior senator from Florida is a reliable liberal who occasionally finds common ground with Republicans on defense and intelligence votes. He would also be America's first spaceman president, having traveled into the vacuum as a payload specialist on space shuttle Columbia in 1986. A Nelson spokesman told the Examiner his 2016 answer "is a no."

Martin Heinrich
That New Mexico boasts two Democratic senators is a rare success story for the party. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3-to-2 ratio in the Land of Enchantment, Democrat hold large majorities in both chambers of the state house, and Republican Gov. Susana Martinez runs moderate to liberal on the GOP spectrum. Nevertheless, Heinrich — though he toes the party line on abortion and environmentalism — is careful to shore up conservative appeal. While he now supports gay marriage, the epiphany that brought his deeply held beliefs into compliance with Democratic Party norms came very late — in 2012 — and only when a primary opponent attempted to flank him on the issue. He opposes the federal "assault weapons" ban. He is just about as handsome and untested as Barack Obama was in 2008. Heinrich declined to comment.

Tom Wolf
A one-time forklift operator with a Ph.D., Wolf successfully ran his family's York-based building materials company for 30 years, before spending a generous chunk of his fortune on a successful 2014 campaign for governor of Pennsylvania. He has assumed office at a time when the Keystone State has nowhere to go but up. GDP growth was anemic under Republican predecessor Tom Corbett, and the city of Chester boasts the second-highest violent crime rate in the country. None of that may add up to a presidential profile for the 66-year-old, but Democrats could use a candidate who has not spent his life seeking one political office after another. Wolf did not comment.

Steve Beshear
Governor of Kentucky since 2007, Beshear has followed a familiar economic-management pattern, with predictable results: A scheme to lure manufacturing of environmentally correct Zap cars went nowhere, as have his efforts to get the Bluegrass State a bigger share of the declining casino gambling business. Kentucky has nevertheless enjoyed reasonable prosperity during his administration, and with two of the Republican Party's most prominent senators, it's the kind of state Democrats need to know how to win. Beshear will be 71 next year, and while fans frequently propose him as a prospective Hillary Clinton running mate, he declined to comment for this article.

Al Gore
What Democrat can ever forget that Al Gore beat George W. Bush in the popular vote in 2000? Like many folks on this list, the two-term vice president is of a certain age. But he has not been idle in his 66 years, having amassed a fortune estimated at $200 million. Various media have quoted anonymous sources saying Gore — whose work history includes honorable service in Vietnam and employment as a journalist, senator and knockabout presidential candidate even before environmentalism made him a Nobel laureate – is interested in a 2016 run. Gore did not respond to requests for comment.

Amy Klobuchar
The senior senator from Minnesota can't quite boast of having appeal in a battleground state: Her colleague Al Franken, also on the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party ticket, snoozed his way to re-election last November. A Republican wave across the great lakes region has failed to reach the Gopher State, where the DFL still holds the governor's office and one house of the legislative branch. Which means at this point, big labor may need a Minnesotan, and Klobuchar does her part, most recently lamenting U.S. Steel's decision to close a major plant by noting that she's in contact with Local 2660 about the matter. She declined to comment and remains an outside bet at best.

Joe Manchin
If the Democrats are interested in again finding the center of American politics, they could ask West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin the way. Republicans have repeatedly tried to lure him to switch parties. Crucially, he is untainted by Obamacare, having come into office after the Affordable Care Act was enacted, and he is generally pro-gun and pro-coal. Although he'd be running from the Senate, Manchin has executive experience as governor of West Virginia. So far he has made no 2016 moves. Nor has he ruled out the possibility of a run. "I'm not serious about running," Manchin told a West Virginia CBS affiliate. "On a national ticket, it would be a pretty far reach probably for me."

John Hickenlooper
The governor of Colorado could put together a coalition of labor, hipsters and louche libertarians. A secession movement during Hickenlooper's administration went nowhere. A concentrated backlash against his extremely broad gun control law cost several Centennial State Democrats their jobs, but Hickenlooper is still around. He declined to comment.

Rahm Emanuel
Emanuel combines the vices of Andrew Cuomo (unions hate him) and Terry McAuliffe (clinging Clinton odor). On the plus side, Chicago's GDP has grown 10.5 percent since he assumed office, and despite widely reported murder spikes, the city's violent crime rate has declined on his watch, according to a database of violent crime statistics from all law enforcement agencies in cities with populations more than 25,000. Wealth in Chicago is highly concentrated, and Emanuel is highly connected there and in Los Angeles. He declined to comment to the Examiner.

Cory Booker
Booker's passion for retail politics gave him a national profile even before he became mayor of Newark, N.J., in 2006 (the 2005 documentary "Street Fight" details his first, unsuccessful attempt to beat the Sharpe James machine). He ran the Brick City with a penchant for colorful — usually unverifiable — tales of hands-on constituent service. Since joining the Senate in 2013, Booker has more than once found common ground with likely Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul of Kentucky. He declined to comment on the 2016 election.

Jerry Brown
A fixture of California politics since the time of Zorro, Jerry Brown will be 77 next year. But he is an American original whose idiosyncratic career includes a serious challenge to candidate Bill Clinton in the 1992 primary (Brown ran on a flat-tax platform) and a lifelong desire to become president. Now in the second term of his second tenure as California governor, Brown has arguably been a more conservative executive than his Republican predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger. He's also remarkably popular, though claims of a broad California recovery don't bear scrutiny. But he says he's no longer eyeing the Oval Office. "Running against Hillary is like running against Jerry Brown in California," Brown told the Washington Post Friday. "In the Democratic Party, it's not going to happen."

Terry McAuliffe
A gleefully political animal, the current governor of Virginia had the good fortune of following Republican Bob McDonnell, whose recent conviction on corruption charges softens McAuliffe's own reputation for pushing the limits (of good taste if not political ethics). McAuliffe is a longtime Clinton crony, but intriguingly, he said last year he has no intention of helping her campaign. "I've done that," McAuliffe told Richmond's NBC affiliate. "It's been a great part of my life, but to be honest with you, I'm past the politics, I'm now into governing."

Andrew Cuomo
Cuomo wouldn't comment to the Examiner about his presidential thoughts, but he is one of the Democratic Party's most effective fundraisers, and he's the governor of the not-inconsiderable state of New York. The Empire State's dire finances sometimes put him at odds with the labor unions essential to all Democrats. Idealistic leftists — who will be crucial in the primaries — have no passion for him. Last year unnamed Cuomo associates told the New York Post the son of Mario Cuomo is keeping his powder dry for 2020.

Jim Webb
Webb has one of the most impressive résumés in America: Vietnam veteran with a Silver Star, two Bronze Stars and two Purple Hearts; Reagan administration secretary of the Navy; Emmy-winning journalist; inspired author of both fiction and non-fiction; and former Virginia senator who chose to leave office after one term. He told Politico last year he could run a "first-class campaign" reminiscent of his upset over Republican Sen. George Allen. Webb is a Jacksonian Democrat, a type of populism with potentially broader appeal than Warren's professorial jabs at inequality. That could also be his Achilles heel: The Democratic base has moved steadily leftward, and Webb's Scots-Irish candor and emotional patriotism make him a tough sell in the primaries.

Martin O'Malley
O'Malley completed two terms as Maryland governor this year, and his legacy is mixed at best. In a very surprising upset, Old Line State voters elected a Republican over his chosen successor, and painful memories of his "rain tax" and other schemes linger. But he is on record as wanting to run, and "Vote for M.O'M" is a campaign slogan that writes itself. On MSNBC this week he criticized Clinton over the email scandal and said he would decide this spring whether to run.

Joe Biden
The vice president is one of a handful of Democrats who have expressed verbal interest in running for president next year. "There's a chance, but I haven't made my mind up about that," he told ABC in January. "We've got a lot of work to do between now and then. There's plenty of time." Biden is hamstrung by his age, a strong habit of putting his foot in his mouth, and an even stronger habit of putting his hands on uncomfortable-looking women during photo ops. But he is the Democrats' sort-of-lovable uncle, and his current job is a natural — though far from guaranteed — springboard to a presidential run.

Elizabeth Warren
The freshman senator from Massachusetts provided much of the intellectual firepower for Obama-era innovations like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. More than any other potential candidate (Clinton included), she speaks to the hard economic Left that provides most of the party's grassroots energy these days. When Democrats look in their hearts, it's Elizabeth Warren they see. Warren repeatedly disclaims any interest in a 2016 run, a stance she has maintained through Clinton's current troubles and repeated when asked by the Examiner.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, George Will on Ohio Gov. John Kasich
Post by: DougMacG on March 19, 2015, 07:52:03 AM
We have kind of ignored John Kasich here.  However, he is a two term Governor of a major state and also with big-time Washington experience, especially on the budget. 

Kasich isn't going to go out and compete with Jeb Bush and others for the big donors, but he is sitting there in Columbus with all his ideas, ready to serve.

He is not my first choice, but could be a very acceptable choice.  Goes to show what a deep bench this is for just one side.

Read George Will today:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/415612/kasich-waits-wings-george-will
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 20, 2015, 12:07:28 PM
Kasich is a very good man and I concur on the depth and quality of his congressional experience with regard to budget issues.

That said, intuitively I do not see him resonating well with many major voting blocks or exciting much passion.  The case for him would perforce be rather wonky.

Title: The Left's Ted Cruz Freakout...
Post by: objectivist1 on March 24, 2015, 05:49:47 AM
This man represents our last, best hope of beginning the hard work of restoring this nation.  The Left is simply telegraphing its abject fear of Cruz with its snarky commentary.  I don't believe anyone is able to avert an inevitable economic collapse at this point, and we may be in for another massive terrorist attack on American soil before long thanks to Obama and Congress's inaction, but I don't see anyone as qualified - let alone better qualified - to take over the helm at this point of crisis than Ted Cruz.  The Left ought to be afraid.  Cruz is the crucifix to the Dracula that they represent.

The Left’s Ted Cruz Freakout

Posted By Matthew Vadum On March 24, 2015 @ frontpagemag.com

Much of the political world went into full freakout mode yesterday as crusading conservative Ted Cruz became the first candidate from either of the major parties to formally announce he is running for president in 2016.

The ritual denunciations of Cruz, the junior Republican senator representing Texas, from all across the fruited plain quickly piled up. Since he assumed office in January 2013, Cruz has come under intense fire from the Left and from a few corners in the GOP. Some of the criticism is well thought out but much of it doesn’t rise above the level of schoolyard taunts. Some consider it a negative that Cruz, like Barack Obama, began running for president soon after becoming a U.S. senator.

His willingness to buck members of his own party –and to openly criticize other Republicans– when his conservative principles require it has won him legions of admirers across America, but few friends in official Washington. GOP leaders don’t like him because he questions what they stand for, tries to force them to honor their promises, calls them “squishes,” and works to derail their legislative priorities. He has even tried to engineer mini-rebellions in the House by whipping House members to vote against GOP leadership. Finding sympathetic lawmakers is like shooting fish in a barrel because Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) disappoints conservatives nearly every day.

To some, Cruz’s strengths are really weaknesses. His brash air of rectitude is arrogance. His eloquence is unctuousness. His unquestioned brilliance is viewed with suspicion.

Cruz put his oratorical gifts to use yesterday. In a moving, headline-grabbing speech at Liberty University in Virginia, unaccompanied by a teleprompter, Cruz talked about “reigniting the promise of America.”

“For so many Americans, the promise of America seems more and more distant. What is the promise of America? The idea that — the revolutionary idea that this country was founded upon, which is that our rights don’t come from man. They come from God Almighty. And that the purpose of the Constitution, as Thomas Jefferson put it, is to serve as chains to bind the mischief of government. The incredible opportunity of the American dream, what has enabled millions of people from all over the world to come to America with nothing and to achieve anything. And then the American exceptionalism that has made this nation a clarion voice for freedom in the world, a shining city on a hill. That’s the promise of America. That is what makes this nation an indispensable nation, a unique nation in the history of the world.”

To the delight of the conservative audience, Cruz promised to repeal Obamacare, abolish the Internal Revenue Service, oppose immigration amnesty, respect First and Second Amendment rights, fight for traditional marriage, repeal Common Core and embrace charter schools, combat Islamic terrorism, and steadfastly support Israel. “I believe in you,” Cruz said.

“I believe in the power of millions of courageous conservatives rising up to reignite the promise of America, and that is why today I am announcing that I’m running for president of the United States. It is a time for truth. It is a time for liberty. It is a time to reclaim the Constitution of the United States. I am honored to stand with each and every one of you courageous conservatives as we come together to reclaim the promise of America, to reclaim the mandate, the hope and opportunity for our children and our children’s children. We stand together for liberty. This is our fight. The answer will not come from Washington. It will come only from the men and women across this country, from men and women, from people of faith, from lovers of liberty, from people who respect the Constitution.”

The speech was well-received, even by many of Cruz’s detractors who acknowledge the former debating champion’s speaking skills.

It is no surprise that Democrat-turned-Republican political strategist Mark McKinnon has dubbed Cruz “the Republican Barack Obama.”

In 2013 Democratic strategist James Carville called him “the most talented and fearless Republican politician I’ve seen in the last 30 years.” Cruz is “perhaps the most influential freshman senator in American history. He’s going to run for president, and don’t be fooled — he is going to wreck [sic] havoc for years to come.”

The reaction to Cruz’s announcement largely mirrored reactions to Cruz’s first few months in the Senate — intense and overwhelmingly negative.

The media and other left-wingers spent all day yesterday mocking Cruz. At least one Republican office holder joined the ridicule fest.

On CNN Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.), who himself is considering running for president, blasted Cruz, calling him a “big mouth” who “basically led the Republican Party over the cliff.”

“We have very, very complex issues facing the country today, and he goes out of his way to oversimplify,” the congressman said of Cruz. “Ted Cruz may be an intelligent person, but he doesn’t carry out an intelligent debate. He oversimplifies, he exaggerates … he doesn’t provide leadership and he has no real experience.”

King released a separate statement on Cruz’s famous talkathon in which he held the Senate floor for 21 hours in a long-shot bid to defund Obamacare.

“Shutting down the federal government and reading Dr. Seuss on the Senate floor are the marks of a carnival barker not the leader of the free world,” King wrote.

Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, a fellow Texas Republican, didn’t badmouth Cruz but made it clear he won’t be supporting him, at least not initially.

“You know, we’ve got a lot of Texans who are running for president, so I’m going to watch from the sidelines,” said Cornyn when asked if he would get behind Cruz. Cornyn, a member of the GOP establishment Cruz loves to hate, may have been referring to Rick Perry, a former Texas governor, who is also thinking about running for the presidency again.

Cornyn, who has amassed a huge campaign war chest, said “nope,” when asked if he would help Cruz financially. “You got a lot of people involved, and I don’t see any benefit to them or to me.”

A pro-amnesty, open borders group assailed Cruz, going as far as questioning his authenticity as a Latino.

“We reject Ted Cruz, which is sad, because while he is the first Latino to declare his candidacy, he may be the most anti-immigration candidate on stage during the debates,” said Cesar Vargas and Erika Andiola, co-directors of the Dream Action Coalition. “While Ted Cruz has a Latino name and immigration in his past, that’s where the similarities between him and the Latino community end.”

Jonathan Bernstein of Bloomberg News dismissively compared him to the late Sen. Joe McCarthy and labeled Cruz “a loudmouth loser.”

“Fortunately, Tailgunner Ted’s chances of winning the Republican nomination are extremely slim at best,” he wrote.

“The bottom line: Opposition from Republicans who care about winning in 2016 will doom the chances of a senator whose tactics (his role in the 2013 government shutdown, for example, and the recent Homeland Security funding fight) have established him as a loudmouth loser. They might look past the loudmouth part, but not the losses.”

On TV’s “The View,” guest co-host Michelle Collins declared herself a “Ted Cruz birther” and demanded to “see the birth certificate.” Cruz “was not born in America. He was born in Canada. So how can he run — how can he run for president? I actually don’t get it. I know he has to go to court.”

At the New Republic, Danny Vinik ridiculed the Texas senator in a piece titled “Ted Cruz Cannot Be Serious.”

“His positions, regardless of where they fall within the Republican Party, are ill-conceived fantasies,” he wrote.

Then Vinik engaged in what the Internet-savvy call “concern-trolling,” offering dubious campaign advice. Cruz wants to repeal the Obamacare law “and then basically see what happens … [this is] unacceptable as a presidential candidate’s health care agenda,” he pontificated. Repeal and replace is the only sensible route to take, he counseled.

Vinik pilloried Cruz for promising to abolish the IRS and not providing a detailed plan to reporters like him on the very first day of his official campaign. “A Cruz government would eliminate the agency but it would still collect taxes—somehow. Cruz has never said how that would work.”

Well, that’s what a campaign is for.

In a snotty column, John Cassidy of the New Yorker, called Cruz the “Texan terror” and wrote off his candidacy.

“The conventional wisdom is that Cruz hasn’t got a chance, and, as far as the Presidency goes, it’s probably accurate. To many Americans, he is the uppity loudmouth who, in the fall of 2013, less than a year into his first term as a senator, helped bring the federal government to a halt. Noted for railing against President Obama and denying the existence of climate change, he holds views that, according to an analysis by the Web site FiveThirtyEight, make him ‘more conservative than every recent G.O.P. nominee, every ’12 contender and every plausible ’16 candidate.'”

At Gizmodo, Adam Clark Estes implied Cruz was an idiot because he didn’t believe in the leftist fantasy known as manmade global warming.

“‘Ted Cruz is a climate change denier?’ you ask. Yes, he sure is. (Ted Cruz is also, very unfortunately, the overseer of NASA.) And just because the loud-mouthed Texan thinks he’s fit for the nation’s highest office doesn’t mean he’s going to yield his absurdly misled beliefs about the planet Earth.”

A New York Times article knocked Cruz’s performance as senator.

“Cruz has not been much of a law maker: He sponsored or co-sponsored 112 pieces of legislation, only one of which became law. Rather, he has made his mark trying to undo or gut administration policies with which he disagrees.”

But in a column on the same newspaper’s website, Jonathan Martin opined that Cruz has a serious shot at winning the presidency.

“By virtue of his strong rhetorical skills, biographical appeal and uncompromising conservatism, Mr. Cruz is the most logical nominee in a party that has turned sharply to the right. In a general election, fatigue toward the Obama years and the difficulty any party has in holding the White House for three consecutive terms could vault him to victory.”

Washington Post leftist Greg Sargent was amazingly restrained and thoughtful.

“But how different is Cruz from other Republicans on the issues themselves? How much of an outlier is Cruz in today’s GOP? Those are not rhetorical questions. A Cruz run will be a good thing, because it will bring clarity to them,” Sargent wrote.

“It’s good that Cruz is running,” he concluded. “We’ll hopefully find out soon enough how much of a conservative outlier Cruz really is in today’s Republican Party.”

It was just two years ago that Sargent was calling Cruz a demagogic nutjob.

Cruz “keeps untold numbers of base voters in a state of perpetual delusion,” he wrote soon after Cruz was sworn in as a member of the Senate.

He does this with “the hints about creeping socialism, the suggestions that Dems are anti-American, the notion that Obama’s modest executive actions reveal him as an enemy of the Constitution, etc.”

One of the co-founders of the modern American conservative movement, Richard A. Viguerie, chairman of ConservativeHQ.com, cheered Cruz’s early entry into the presidential contest.

The rest of the candidates will have to “move right to respond to Cruz, or be left behind by a grassroots conservative electorate fed-up with Republican candidates who are merely principle-free messengers for an out of touch Washington elite.”

Is America really ready for a swing to the right, Ted Cruz-style?

After eight years of Obama’s catastrophic presidency, voters just might be.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 24, 2015, 06:59:58 AM
I like Cruz too.  He was very good on Hannity last night. 
Title: Interesting Morris analysis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 25, 2015, 03:33:42 PM
Dick gets back in his lane and is the better for it:  :lol:

Who Is Jeb's Main Rival?

By DICK MORRIS

Published on TheHill.com on March 24, 2015

Though the GOP nominating process for 2016 is just beginning, CNN/ORC issued a poll
this week that sheds light on how it is unfolding. The survey tested the GOP
candidates in a head-to-head match-up, and with only 14 percent undecided, it shows
the beginning of the makeup of the Republican field.

Jeb Bush garnered 16 percent in the poll, leading the field, with Scott Walker (13
percent) and Rand Paul (12 percent) following closely behind. Mike Huckabee came in
next with 10 percent, and Ben Carson won 9 percent. Chris Christie and Marco Rubio
tied at 7 percent support and were followed by Ted Cruz and Rick Perry, both at 4
percent. Bringing up the rear were John Kasich (2 percent), Rick Santorum (1
percent) and Bobby Jindal (1 percent).

To understand what's going on, you need to put yourself in the place of the typical
Republican primary voter. And the first thing you need to do is decide if you are
for or against Bush.

The former Florida governor been anointed by the media as the front-runner -- he is
the best-known and has the most money. The most notable fact is that Bush is only at
16 percent of the vote in this poll. His name, resources, Florida base and broad
appeal should put him much higher. Among GOP donors and elites, he likely runs much
better. But 84 percent of the primary electorate isn't buying him right now and
wants an alternative. While Bush has not declared, there is no doubt that he is
running. And even though he has not projected his credentials and ideas nationally,
his lack of appeal, despite full name recognition, should be troublesome for his
backers.

Next, you look down the list of candidates and see if there is anyone else you would
vote for -- or, on the other hand, can't support. Paul stands out. You either
support the Kentucky senator's novel brand of economic libertarianism, social
liberalism and neo-isolationism or you don't. Because Paul isn't likely to change
his views or persuade national security or evangelical voters to change theirs, he
is not likely to move up.

Huckabee faces a similar problem. The former Arkansas governor is trapped in an
ecclesiastical ghetto -- he beats the hell (or heck) out of Santorum, but to grow,
he needs to wage a secular campaign on issues like income inequality, Wall Street
deceit and other topics that grow out of his spirituality. He might just do that,
but hasn't done it yet.

Christie, the embattled New Jersey governor, needs Bush to fall for him to gain. Not
very likely.

Setting aside the poll's stragglers, we have to view the candidacies of Walker,
Rubio, Carson and Cruz as a unit, together getting 33 percent of the vote. Some
voters may prefer one or the other, but their support is, at the moment, likely
interchangeable. The winner of this four-way contest will emerge to challenge Bush
-- and the former Florida governor is vulnerable.

Which candidate that will be requires a more subtle calculation.

Walker has a big lead in financial support, seeming to be the favorite of Charles
and David Koch and their allies. But the Wisconsin governor has not yet shown the
depth and grasp of issues necessary for the national stage.

Rubio has a positive image but has flip-flopped on immigration and hasn't motivated
anyone to storm the barricades ... yet. The Florida senator's public appearances
have been too milquetoast and too biographic. He needs to use issues to win.

Cruz turned people off with his stridency on the Senate floor in October of 2013 but
may be capable to motivating the greatest positive passion among the bunch. He's
probably the brightest and best informed. The Texas senator knows how to use issues,
and is currently is the darling of the Tea Party.

Carson is a first-time candidate in an era in which, after our experience with
Barack Obama, we distrust ingenues. He still has to prove himself.

Of course, none of these defects are lethal and all can be overcome. Any of the four
could do it. (And don't count Huckabee out. He's the most likable and articulate of
them all.)
Title: Re: Interesting Morris analysis
Post by: DougMacG on March 25, 2015, 10:00:16 PM
Interesting, and mostly right, I think.  Morris is a pollster so I presume this is a pretty good poll for this point in time.  That still means + or - 3 or 4% for all of them.  I like that my pick Rubio is being careful not to peak too early, lol.  He keeps getting just enough support to stay relevant.

The Morris bracket framework of quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals fits the Republican path to the Presidency pretty well this time around.  The nomination will most likely be wrapped up about 11 months from now unless it goes to the convention.  That leaves some time but it's not that far off either.

Morris' first test, that you are either for or against frontrunner Jeb Bush is a valid one, except that most people don't really know Jeb yet.  He is more likable and more politically skilled than people think so that number should go up some.  And, as mentioned, he will have the money to do that.

I think Morris reads Rand Paul's support correctly.  His fans already know him.  There are a good number of them.  They won't leave him easily, if ever.  Nor will he gain much as the process unfolds.

Scott Walker perhaps is peaking too early.  Based on the 2012 experience with Newt, Michele Backmann, Hermann Cain and others all having big surges that fizzled, it is easy to think that with the scrutiny of being front and center too early, Walker may eventually stumble.  However, he also is an underestimated politician and we don't know how far he can go. 

Morris wrote:  "Setting aside the poll's stragglers, we have to view the candidacies of Walker,
Rubio, Carson and Cruz as a unit, together getting 33 percent of the vote. Some
voters may prefer one or the other, but their support is, at the moment, likely
interchangeable. The winner of this four-way contest will emerge to challenge Bush
-- and the former Florida governor is vulnerable."

Add Kasich and Jindahl's support to that and that bracket reaches 36%, which could become a winner take all.

Of that group, I still see Rubio as the one emerging to challenge Bush and Paul.  Walker is the successful governor of the group, but now they argue his results are no better than the bordering states.  I will refute that, but can he, and can he hold his own on foreign policy and all kinds of other issues that don't come up as Governor of Wisconsin?  Walker appeared on Hugh Hewitt (radio) today and was questioned hard on foreign policy.  He did surprisingly well and will only get better.  He did have to say a couple of times that I agree with Rubio on that.  http://www.hughhewitt.com/governor-scott-walker-talks-foreign-policy/

Carson is great and I wish he was ready for this but he isn't.  No one can be in that short of a time. 

Cruz is Cruz.  He is great but he has crossed too many people to suddenly become well liked.  This is partly a popularity contest, not just how good would you be if elected.  Ted Cruz didn't shut down the government but he did take the rap for it.  It's supposed to work just the opposite, you build up favors and cash in chips to win the nomination.  A groundswell of hundreds of thousands of conservatives won't push Cruz over the top.  He needs tens of millions.

It's going to be exciting; I hope we pick the right one this time.

Bigdog, if you are out there, I am ready to meet up with you in Iowa. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Charles Krauthammer
Post by: DougMacG on March 28, 2015, 01:28:16 PM
CK made some remark like that and the warning is fair, we should be careful to pick someone ready for the job.  But those with the longest, widest and deepest experience (Kasich?) are not necessarily best for the job either. 

The column I was teeing off on was this one at the Federalist (Cruz thread):
http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/25/9-reasons-ted-cruz-is-exactly-like-barack-obama/
------------------------------------------------

Charles redeems himself here I think.  This is a first look at what he thinks will happen.  He is right that Cruz is a long shot, may break out - especially in the debate setting.  He pick Rubio first, also a first termer and also a long shot at this point.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-gop-racing-form-first-edition/2015/03/26/2c050b4c-d3cc-11e4-a62f-ee745911a4ff_story.html

The GOP racing form: First edition
By Charles Krauthammer  March 27

With Ted Cruz announcing and Rand Paul and Marco Rubio soon to follow, it’s time to start handicapping the horses and making enemies.

No point in wasting time on the Democratic field. There is none. The only thing that can stop Hillary Clinton is an act of God, and He seems otherwise occupied. As does Elizabeth Warren, the only Democrat who could conceivably defeat her.

On to the GOP.

First Tier

1. Marco Rubio. Trails badly in current polls, ranking seventh at 5 percent, but high upside potential.

Assets: Foreign policy looms uncharacteristically large in this election cycle, and Rubio is the most knowledgeable and fluent current contender on everything from Russia to Cuba to the Middle East. The son of Cuban immigrants, he can break into flawless Spanish (so can Jeb Bush) and speak passionately about the American story in a party that lost the Hispanic vote by 44 points in 2012.

Liabilities (in the primaries): His Gang of Eight immigration apostasy, though his current enforcement-first position has wide appeal. Second, after Barack Obama, will voters want another first-term senator with no executive experience? (Same for Cruz and Paul.)

Major appeal: Fresh, young, dynamic persona is a powerful counterpoint to Clinton fatigue.

Goes out at 3-1.

2. Jeb Bush. The consensus favorite (though I remain a bit skeptical). Solid, soft-spoken, serious, with executive experience and significant achievements as governor. What he lacks in passion, he makes up for in substance. And he has shown backbone in sticking to his semi-heretical positions on immigration and Common Core.

Obvious liability: His name. True, it helps him raise tens of millions of dollars, but it saddles him with legacy and dynastic issues that negate the inherent GOP advantage of running a new vs. old, not-again campaign against Hillary.

Odds: 7-2.

Cruz announces 2016 run for president(2:07)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) announced his intention to run for president in the 2016 election during a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va. (AP)
3. Scott Walker. A fine record of conservative achievement. Has shown guts and leadership in taking on labor unions and winning three elections (five if you count proxy elections) against highly energized Democrats.

Good, rousing speech in Iowa, but has stumbled since, flubbing routine questions on evolution and patriotism, then appearing to compare the Islamic State to Wisconsin demonstrators. Rookie mistakes, easily forgotten — if he learns from them.

Pandered on ethanol and fired a staffer who complained about Iowa’s unwarranted influence. Sure, everyone panders to Iowa, but Walker’s calling card is standing up to pressure.

Most encouraging sign: ability to maintain altitude after meteoric rise. Numbers remain steady. And his speeches continue to impress.

Odds: 4-1.

Second Tier

4. Chris Christie. Some politicians have their one moment. Christie might have missed his in 2012 when his fearless in-your-face persona was refreshingly new. Over time, however, in-your-face can wear badly. That plus Bridgegate cost him traction and dropped him out of the first tier. Biggest problem: being boxed out ideologically and financially by Jeb Bush for the relatively-moderate-governor-with-cross-aisle-appeal slot. 12-1.

5. Ted Cruz. Grand, florid campaign launch with matching rhetoric. Straightforward base-oriented campaign. Has developed a solid following. Could break out, especially in debate. 15-1.

6. Mike Huckabee. Great name recognition, affable, popular. But highly identified with social/cultural issues — how far can that carry him beyond Iowa and evangelicals? 15-1.

7. Rand Paul. Events have conspired against him. Obama’s setbacks and humiliations abroad have created a national mood less conducive to Paul’s non-interventionism. His nearly 13-hour ­anti-drone filibuster would not fly today. Is trying to tack back, even signing the anti-Iran-deal letter of the 47 senators. Strong youth appeal, though outreach to minorities less successful thus far. Bottom line: High floor of devoted libertarians; low ceiling in today’s climate. 30-1.

Longer Shots

8. Carly Fiorina. Getting her footing. Given current societal taboos, she is best placed to attack Hillary and has done so effectively. Can she do a Huckabee 2008 and, through debates, vault to the first tier? Unlikely. But because she’s talented and disciplined, not impossible. 50-1.

9. Ben Carson. Polling high, but is a novice making cringe-worthy gaffes, for example, on the origins of Islam and on gay choice (“a lot of people who go into prison go into prison straight, and when they come out, they’re gay”). And not knowing that the Baltic states are in NATO. Truly good man, brilliant doctor, great patriot. But not ready for the big leagues. Chance of winning? Zero.

Others

Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and John Kasich — still below radar. If they surface, they’ll be featured in the next racing form
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 07, 2015, 12:27:15 PM
On the Ted Cruz thread, George Will observes correctly that we need someone who can break the electoral ice.  The question is not who is most conservative but who reaches out best from the conservative side to draw new people in?
------------------
Bill Clinton, according to the Times, views [Jeb] Bush — as well as Florida senator Marco Rubio — as the most daunting GOP challenger to his wife.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/hillary-clinton-2016-campaign.html

Of those two, the Bush surname helps Hillary to neutralize Clinton fatigue, and Jeb would have more trouble getting the base to turn out.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential Carly Fiorina interview
Post by: DougMacG on April 09, 2015, 10:57:26 PM
http://www.hughhewitt.com/carly-fiorina-on-iran-deal-president-obama-and-hillary-clinton/

She is WAY better at this than I expected.  I wouldn't be surprised if she moves up to a top tier candidate during the process.  She would make a great VP choice, but also would be a better top of the ticket candidate and better President than Hillary.

There's a transcript at the link, but I would recommend hearing the audio link.  I would prefer to see it, but this is a radio interview.  She doesn't exude excitement but sounds thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable, well-prepared and experienced.

My take at this point is that she was too conservative for California so she didn't know how to present herself to a far left state.  She seems more comfortable competing for the Republican nomination and taking on Pres. Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 09, 2015, 11:23:57 PM
With the little I've seen so far, I can picture her as a VP candidate; she'd make a very good "pit bull with lipstick" going after Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 10, 2015, 05:19:08 AM
" I can picture her as a VP candidate; she'd make a very good "pit bull with lipstick" going after Hillary"

She would be better than Palin who has no depth beyond what we saw in her Republican Convention speech.
Title: The Arabian Candidate...
Post by: objectivist1 on April 10, 2015, 06:23:54 AM
The Arabian Candidate

Posted By William Kilpatrick On April 10, 2015 @ frontpagemag.com



In The Manchurian Candidate, the son of a prominent right-wing politician is captured by the Soviets and brainwashed in a secret Manchurian location. His task is to assassinate a presidential candidate, thus ensuring the election of the demagogic vice-president. Hence, the title “Manchurian Candidate.”

The film has several parallels to current events. The main difference is that in those days, Americans had to be brainwashed into serving enemy interests by psy-ops teams. Nowadays, they come self-brainwashed with some indoctrinative assist from the American educational system.

In the film, a scary lady with leftist sympathies who looks vaguely like Hillary Clinton manipulates her husband into high political office. In real life, a scary lady with leftist leanings who looks vaguely like Angela Lansbury (only scarier) manipulates herself into high political office.

In her case, teams of brainwashers are not required, since she has brainwashed herself into believing that foreign governments are dumping truckloads of cash into her family foundation because she’s such a charming and intelligent woman. And also because Arab sovereigns like nothing better than to do their part to improve the lives of the poor, the hungry, the environmentally underserved, and kids who need braces—in short, the very causes for which the foundation was founded.

Another similarity is that in the film, the Angela Lansbury character has some sort of hypnotic power over her son, the unwitting assassin. Whenever it begins to dawn on him that something funny is going on, she flashes a Queen of Diamonds playing card and he falls into a catatonic state of complete obedience. In the present situation the Angela Lansbury look-alike has merely to flash the gender card and, presto, skeptical voters fall back into line.

There are parallels to other movies as well. Today’s Queen of Diamonds has a secret server in her home so that her exchanges with foreign dono—I mean “diplomats”—can’t be traced. I’m not sure if the server takes up only one room of the palatial house, or a whole suite of rooms. And who knows what’s in the cavern-like basement? It’s all faintly reminiscent of those James Bond thrillers in which the villain’s remote island estate sits atop a vast underground military-industrial complex.

At some point the analogy breaks down. You could still convince a sixties audience that leftists were willing to sell out the country. We, on the other hand, have convinced ourselves that we live in a brave new world where such things never happen—at least, not in modern Western societies. No one would dare to pull a fast one on us because we’re just too smart. We’ve grown up watching CSI, we went to schools that taught critical thinking, and our history texts were written by Howard Zinn. We’ve also been nurtured on relativism, so if it were discovered that Arabs controlled the White House, we would shrug our shoulders and say, “at this point, what does it matter?”

The Clinton-Arab connection actually goes back to the time when Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas and worked to secure a hefty Saudi contribution to a Middle-Eastern studies program at the University of Arkansas. But let’s skip all that and fast forward to relatively recent times when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appointed her longtime aide Huma Abedin as Deputy Chief of Staff at the State Department. When it was discovered that Abedin’s family was deeply involved in the Muslim Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia, very few eyebrows were raised. After all, even President Obama had relatives in the Muslim Brotherhood. So it would have been silly to make something of it.

It’s probably just a coincidence that while working for the Clintons, Huma herself was the assistant editor of the Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs which—you guessed it—is a Muslim Brotherhood journal. Before that, and while still interning at the White House, she was an executive board member of the Muslim Student Association (MSA) at George Washington University. The MSA was the first Muslim Brotherhood organization in the United States and George Washington was the first Muslim president. Well, the latter hasn’t yet been firmly established, but it’s just a matter of time until those Saudi-funded Mid-East studies professors at the University of Arkansas and the Saudi-funded professors at Georgetown (Bill’s alma mater) discover the prayer rug in the attic at Mount Vernon. It’s also probably a coincidence that, like her boss, Huma conducted State Department business using her own personal e-mail address, connected, one supposes, to the same master server that served her master so well… er, mistress.

Abedin also worked until recently for the Clinton Foundation. Again, this is no doubt a pure coincidence and, as the old saying goes, it has nothing to do with Islam. Although CSI investigators would have a field day with such coincidences, today’s government officials seem curiously lacking in curiosity. In 2012, Michelle Bachmann and four other House members wrote letters to the Inspector Generals of several government agencies asking them to conduct an investigation into Muslim Brotherhood penetration of the government. They were particularly concerned about Human Abedin in view of her family connections and influential position. They noted [1] that the Clinton State Department had “taken actions recently that have been enormously favorable to the Muslim Brotherhood and its interests.”

The request was dismissed by numerous congressmen and senators as “offensive,” “insensitive,” and even “hurtful.” By that time the machinery of the “Islamophobia” industry was already in high gear and it was deemed prudent even by Republicans to defend Abedin and to damn her accusers as McCarthyites.

Still, the case for an inquiry seemed strong. As one McCarthyite, former federal prosecutor Andy McCarthy [2], observed, even if Abedin was innocent of any wrongdoing, the State Departments own guidelines about foreign family connections would disqualify her for a security clearance for such a sensitive position.

But then, again, a lot of people in sensitive positions don’t seem to qualify for a security clearance. For example, if all your closest relatives were leftists or communists, if your chief mentors were, respectively, a member of the Communist Party and a radical left-wing preacher, and if you used to hang out with known terrorists, you probably couldn’t get a job as a night watchman at an auto parts warehouse. On the other hand, if someone with the same background throws his hat into the presidential ring, he can become Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Navy, and get to set foreign policy.

He also gets to appoint Secretaries of State. It shouldn’t be any surprise if they turn out to be the kind of people who can’t be bothered with security checks. Such people seem to live in an ethereal realm that puts them above suspicion and above conflicts of interest. Normally, when a Secretary of State receives tens of millions in donations from countries that support the spread of a radical ideology, it would be a sign that something is terribly wrong. For an analogy, ask yourself if you would keep someone on at your firm if she had access to sensitive trade secrets and yet received huge gifts from rival corporations while conducting company business on her private server.

You would probably get rid of her pronto. But that’s only if you apply the normal rules of logic—which apparently don’t apply to Secretaries of State appointed by President Obama. If you applied such logic, you might also think there was something awkward about the fact that current Secretary of State John Kerry’s daughter is married to an Iranian who has extensive family ties in Iran. As Kenneth Timmerman [3] points out, the FBI usually won’t grant security clearance to “individuals who are married to nationals of an enemy nation or have family members living in that country, for fear of divided loyalties or, more simply, blackmail.” Of course, you would have to be some kind of conspiracy nut to think that having vulnerable in-laws in Iran would in any way compromise Secretary Kerry’s negotiations with the representatives of a country whose leaders routinely indulge in “death to America” rhetoric.

Undoubtedly, the President consulted with his senior adviser Valerie Jarrett about the matter. Since Jarrett was born in Iran and spoke Persian as a child, she would, by current standards of expertise, be assumed to have deep insight into the Persian mind. She could have assured the president that “Great Satan” and “Death to America” are typical of the rhetorical exuberance that characterizes the rich and vibrant Iranian culture. Moreover, she could have allayed any concerns about blackmail. Anyone who has studied “Cliff Notes on Islam” knows that blackmail runs counter to the deeply held beliefs of the mullahs.

Jarretts’ family left Iran when she was five, but apparently those five years were enough to qualify her as an expert on Iranian affairs. According to Discover the Networks [4], it was revealed in 2012 that for several months, Jarrett “had been leading secret negotiations with representatives of Iran’s Supreme leader… in an effort to normalize relations between the U.S. and Iran.”

The mind spins at the –what’s the word?—the audacity of it all. But the curious thing is not that there are people in high places willing to put self-interest ahead of the national interest. Such people are always with us. The curious thing is that the American people and the American press accept it with such equanimity. During the Obama-Clinton-Kerry-Jarrett-Abedin years, Russia seized the Crimea, ISIS seized large parts of Iraq and Syria, the Taliban re-established itself in Afghanistan, allies stopped trusting us, enemies were emboldened, the Middle East was set on fire, and the Army was drastically reduced. Oh, and the way was cleared for Iran to have nuclear bombs. Future generations—if there are any—will wonder what we were thinking.

What we were thinking, they may discover, goes something like this (in shorthand brain language): “Mustn’t think that! Mustn’t say that! Not nice! What will people think!” You’d have to go back to the Victorian era to find another society with so much concern for propriety of thought and speech. Thomas Sowell put his finger on the phenomenon in a recent editorial [5]. When it comes to matters of survival, he observed, we have “put questions of etiquette above questions of annihilation.”

He’s right. A sort of suicidal etiquette that chokes off common sense has grown up in our society. Under the rules of the new etiquette, we aren’t allowed to say that the Emperor has no clothes. We dare not even point out that the Emperor and his ministers appear to be throwing open the gates to the enemy.

Let’s see: The people of the United States elect as president a man they know very little about. When it becomes obvious that he has deep leftist sympathies combined with deep Islamist sympathies, they elect him again. He, in turn, appoints one Secretary of State who is beholden to Arab largesse, and then, after she steps down, he replaces her with a man who practices folk-song diplomacy and has close family ties with Iran.

The Manchurian Candidate? On one level, the current situation is so full of farce, that a serious drama like The Manchurian Candidate couldn’t do it justice. If you were to make a movie of the current mandarin mess, it might be better to play it for laughs—an Austin Powers-type spoof or something along the lines of Abbott and Costello meet the Manchurian Candidate.

On another level, the situation is so fraught with apocalyptic dangers that only a deadly serious doomsday film—something along the lines of Fail Safe—could bring home the enormity of our current folly. In any event, there’s a title ready made for it. If the first Obama election could be called Death Wish I, and his re-election, Death Wish II, then the election of Hillary Clinton would deservedly merit the title, Death Wish III—The Final Chapter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 10, 2015, 11:41:56 AM
" I can picture her as a VP candidate; she'd make a very good "pit bull with lipstick" going after Hillary"

She would be better than Palin who has no depth beyond what we saw in her Republican Convention speech.

Palin had the mis-match of her political views not matching the top of the ticket. That McCain needed to reach to the right in the general election was HIS fault.  (DOle/Kemp had this problem too.)  She was not ready but had far more depth than the candidate won that seat. 

She was unprepared for a simple question, what do you read, that she didn't want to answer.  She was probably reading wolf hunter's weekly and a few right wing sites that she didn't want to mention.  She didn't want to embellish and get caught on the followup, so she had a Rick Perry moment instead.  Most of the rest of what was leveled against her was false.  Palin was the most powerful woman in her state before she was governor as head of the energy commission in an energy state. She performed flawlessly in her own gubernatorial debate, highly knowledgeable and articulate on all state-level issues.

But ccp's main point is true.  Carly is showing up readier and with more depth, discussing large concepts and fine details of foreign policy and other things tight out of the gate.  She doesn't have to match her view with a McCain or anyone else. We may not know yet what Carly's blind spots will be.  Her record as CEO of HP was not that highly regarded but she seems able to defend it.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on April 10, 2015, 12:29:53 PM
I can confirm that Fiorina was NOT well-regarded as CEO of Hewlett-Packard.  She did not lead the company well at all.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 11, 2015, 09:07:26 AM
"Her record as CEO of HP was not that highly regarded but she seems able to defend it."

I share this sentiment.

Also, I was not at all impressed with her as a Senate candidate her in CA.

That said:

a) Presumably she learned from her Senate campaign

b) Being a woman, she can go after Hillary unafraid of feminazi claptrap-- a point which she seems to have grasped quite well.  Thus, regardless of her ultimate merits (and I think she comes up quite short) having her in the race at this point is a big plus for beating Hillary.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 14, 2015, 10:34:43 AM
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/gops-plan-attack-hillary-clinton-as-mitt-romney-116943.html?ml=tl_5
Title: Hillary the Racist
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 14, 2015, 12:11:11 PM
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/clinton-campaigns-highest-suggested-donation-2700-english-only-250-spanish_918942.html
Title: Hillary: Topple the 1%!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 22, 2015, 01:58:14 PM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/21/hillary-clinton-calls-for_0_n_7108026.html
Title: Now here's a ticket!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 23, 2015, 01:15:22 PM
Just put Rubio, instead of Walker and it sounds pretty good to me!


This GOP presidential ticket tells liberals to go to hell
Posted on April 23, 2015 by Wayne Allyn Root
Hi, I’m Wayne Allyn Root for Personal Liberty. The GOP keeps bringing a knife to a gun fight. The result is we’re getting killed. We’re getting defeated and humiliated even after we won the most historic landslide in modern history. It’s time to change strategy.
The media tells us to play nice, be “gentlemen” and compromise. Look where it’s gotten us: a bankrupt country with over $18 trillion in debt and income taxes at about the same level as bankrupt, socialist Greece. Worse, the labor force participation rate is at all-time lows. And for the first time in history more businesses fail each day than open.
We are facing the end of the America dream and death of the greatest middle class in world history because we have played nice, acted like gentlemen and compromised. We’re standing around acting like “gentlemen” while Barack Obama turns America into Detroit. Like in that movie “Network,” it’s time to open our window and scream: “I’m not going to take it anymore!”
It’s time for a GOP dream team of street fighters to take on the evil that is destroying America by making us all dependent on big government. It’s time to kick ass and take no prisoners. It’s time to stand up to the evildoers and tell them to go to hell.
It’s time to get behind one nominee and then name our entire team and announce what that team will do to save the U.S. economy, the middle class and the American dream.
It’s time to inspire passion and enthusiasm by showing we stand for something. That something includes smaller government, lower taxes, less spending, paying down the debt and giving more power to the citizens. Let the liberal media try to call that “extreme.” The American people will vote for that vision.
Liberals and the media told us we’d lose if we ran an “extremist” like Ronald Reagan. Instead, he won in two historic landslides. Since then, every milquetoast moderate we’ve run — George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney — lost.
The key to victory is the passion, energy, intensity and enthusiasm of your base, combined with inspiring independents and undecided voters by painting a picture of hope, prosperity and patriotism. You have to get people excited. Being “moderate” doesn’t excite anyone. Although it’s a little early for me to endorse anyone, here is a look at a potential GOP dream team.
Scott Walker as the GOP presidential nominee
Here’s a man from the Midwest, without a college degree and with a blue-collar mentality. Here’s a man who fought the money and manpower of every union in America and won — not once, not twice, but three times in blue-state Wisconsin. He didn’t do it with kindness. Despite death threats against his wife and children, Scott Walker never gave an inch. He turned a $3 billion deficit into a billion-dollar surplus, and then handed the money back to the taxpayers. That’s a fighter. That’s courage. That’s a leader with a spine, who won’t fold when the biased-liberal media tries to slander and destroy him. Walker’s a man bringing a bazooka to a gun fight.
His choices for vice president are plentiful. The GOP bench is fantastic and diverse, from Latino men like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, to women like Carly Fiorina, Gov. Susanna Martinez and Gov. Nikki Haley, to libertarian heroes like Rand Paul, to a brilliant African-American brain surgeon like Dr. Ben Carson, to a genius policy wonk like Gov. Bobby Jindal. The list is long.
We’ve been governed by inept political hacks for far too long. It is time for a dream team of experienced, committed adults who will kick ass and never fold when the going gets tough. The GOP presidential nominee needs to name his entire dream team.
Do that and we’ll put the fear of God into liberals and the media. Here is how we differentiate ourselves, paint a picture of hope and inspire our base! Here is how we win 270 electoral votes.
Name our dream team from top to bottom
Attorney General Ted Cruz: Let’s put a true defender of the Constitution in a place where he can do just that. Can you imagine the fear we’ll drive into the heads and hearts of law-breaking liberals and Marxists? No compromise, no mercy.
Treasury Secretary Rand Paul: Put a libertarian in charge of the economy, taxes and the IRS. Watch the U.S. economy enjoy the greatest expansion in history with a true, free-market libertarian in charge. Rand Paul is a fighter. No compromise, no mercy.
Defense Secretary Allen West. Here’s the man born to stand up for the honor of the military and defend the greatest nation in world history. No compromise, no mercy.
Secretary of State (you’re going to love this one) Donald Trump: Rather than weaklings afraid of their shadows, turn the world’s greatest, pit bull negotiator loose on our adversaries like China and Russia. Let him negotiate the nuclear deal with Iran. No compromise, no mercy.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ron Paul: The first father-son cabinet team will stand up to, audit and rein in the Fed before the Fed destroys our economy. Ron Paul’s entire life has been preparation for this. No compromise, no mercy.
Homeland Security Secretary Trey Gowdy: Protect our borders with a pit bull, not a pussycat. No compromise, no mercy.
ICE Director Joe Arpaio: Need I say more?
Health And Human Services Secretary Ben Carson: Here’s the guy born to dismantle Obamacare. No compromise, no mercy.
Labor Secretary Darrell Issa: Here’s a street fighter who will stand up for America’s workers, not union bosses. No compromise, no mercy.
Energy Secretary Sarah Palin. You want jobs? Take off the shackles and drill, baby, drill! No compromise, no mercy.
Commerce Secretary Herman Cain. Here’s a brilliant businessman and unabashed capitalist who will get American working again. No compromise, no mercy.
Special Economic Advisers Mitt Romney, Jack Welsh, Steve Wynn, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump (doing double duty): Put politics aside and put people who understand business in charge of the economy. No compromise, no mercy.
Education Secretary Bobby Jindal. Here’s the brightest guy in the room, bar none. Put him in charge of taking on the teachers unions with creative ideas to turn around our failing education system. No compromise, no mercy.
(Now, a personal plug) Wayne Allyn Root, in charge of the Small Business Administration: Small business is the economic engine of America. I know how to motivate, inspire and empower the millions of mom and pop businesses on Main Street, not Wall Street. I stand for giving power to small business, not the welfare state or illegal aliens. No compromise, no mercy.
This is how you win an election — by exciting and inspiring Americans with an experienced, all-star GOP dream team that actually stands for something: America first!
And this is how you tell liberals to go to hell.
http://personalliberty.com/this-gop-presidential-ticket-tells-liberals-to-go-to-hell/
******
Title: WSJ Why the stales are so high
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 23, 2015, 04:59:08 PM
second post


By
Fred Barnes
April 22, 2015 7:06 p.m. ET
356 COMMENTS

The importance of a presidential election depends on what’s at stake. In 1980, a lot was. The economy was stuck with double-digit inflation and interest rates, and Soviet communism was advancing in Africa, Asia and South America. Ronald Reagan was elected president.

Now, as the 2016 presidential race unfolds, the stakes are even higher than 36 years ago. Not only is the economy unsteady but threats to American power and influence around the world are more pronounced and widespread. And those problems are only part of what makes next year’s election so critical.

Like it or not, the next president must deal with the world President Obama leaves behind. It won’t be easy. A Republican president will be committed to reversing a significant chunk of Mr. Obama’s legacy, as most GOP candidates already are. That’s a gigantic undertaking. A Democratic president, presumably Hillary Clinton, will be forced to defend Mr. Obama’s policies, since they reflect the views of her party. That will leave little time for fresh Democratic initiatives.

The most immediate issues confronting the new president are strategic and military. The U.S. role in the world is in retreat. Allies such as Israel and Poland have been alienated. American leadership against Russian intervention in Ukraine and Iran’s dominance of neighboring countries in the Middle East was fleeting. Mr. Obama’s promise of a foreign-policy “pivot” toward Asia turned out to be merely rhetorical.

Ashamed of past American policies, Mr. Obama began his presidency with an apology tour. When the next president takes office a tour of reassurance may be required, along with an effort to persuade the world of America’s intention to stand up to Russia, Iran, China and Islamic terrorists.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military has shrunk to pre-World War II levels in troops and arms. “Our leaders have painted a fictional picture of the state of our military,” said former Texas governor and likely GOP presidential candidate Rick Perry in a speech in early April. “Our armed forces are depleted, our military infrastructure is aging, and our technological advantages are being severely challenged.”

Mr. Perry did not exaggerate. But a military buildup as massive as Mr. Reagan’s in the 1980s would be expensive, take years to complete, and face political opposition. The Democratic Party no longer has a hawkish, internationalist faction. “There is no Scoop Jackson wing,” former United Nations ambassador John Bolton said at a Republican gathering in New Hampshire last Friday. “There isn’t even a Joe Lieberman wing.”

Next in line of importance is the economy, which has not experienced annual economic growth of more than 3% since 2005. Like the diminished military, this has weakened America’s ability to project power and influence outside U.S. borders. Rejuvenating the economy is necessary. Without it, the country will suffer. Politically speaking, so will the president elected next year.

Entitlements—Medicare, Social Security and Medicaid—are eating up the federal budget. Reform is crucial to curbing debt and improving economic growth. Republicans are divided, though, and Democrats want to increase entitlement spending. The new president may be hogtied on this issue.

But a Republican won’t be blocked from altering the ideological balance on the Supreme Court. It’s very much at stake in the 2016 election. Four justices are 76 or older. Two, Ruth Bader Ginsburg (82) and Stephen Breyer (76), are liberals. Antonin Scalia (79) is a conservative. And Anthony Kennedy (78) is a swing vote. The next president’s nominees, assuming there are several, will be pivotal.

And that leads us to the toughest issue of all for a Republican president: rolling back or overhauling Mr. Obama’s policies from ObamaCare to student loans to executive orders protecting up to five million illegal immigrants from deportation and opening diplomatic relations with Cuba. This is a high priority for the entire GOP. But “it will take some time,” says James Capretta of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank. It will require patience and tenacity.

The history here is not encouraging. When President Dwight Eisenhower arrived at the White House in 1953, he was expected to begin dismantling the New Deal. But some New Deal policies were popular, and the task of uprooting programs in place for nearly two decades was daunting. The New Deal survived almost wholly intact.

That won’t happen with a Republican president and Congress. “If a Republican wins, he’ll almost certainly have both houses of Congress,” says University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. But “GOP ranks in the Senate won’t be at or even near 60 due to the seats that are up for grabs in ’16. Still, it’s an end to extreme gridlock.”

ObamaCare will be first on the chopping block, as well it should, and Republicans have adequate plans to replace it that most Americans will likely welcome. Curbs on oil and natural gas production can be eased or eliminated. Executive orders can be promptly rescinded.

It is the rest of Mr. Obama’s legacy that will be tricky to undo. Should every overreaching initiative of the Environmental Protection Agency be axed? Should the Federal Communications Commission be packed to cancel net neutrality? What about Dodd-Frank, the stepped-up regulation of financial markets? Should it be repealed entirely or just stripped of some of its new rules?

When attacking eight years of Obama policies, Republicans would be wise not to treat Democrats the way Democrats treated them. Mr. Obama did himself no favors by shunning Republicans when ObamaCare, the economic stimulus and Dodd-Frank were passed. Democrats had large majorities in the House and Senate at the time. They spurned even a hint of bipartisanship.

This has come back to haunt Mr. Obama and Democrats. If ObamaCare had been passed with a sprinkling of Republican votes, it would not be as unpopular as it is today. The same is true for executive orders. They were used specifically to deny Republicans a role.

This touches on a tacit but important issue in the 2016 election: the possibility of a “new normal” in the way Washington works. The parties are deeply divided. They don’t like each other. Mr. Obama made things worse. With Mr. Obama and Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid gone, the next president can improve relations. It won’t require an executive order.

Mr. Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard, is a Fox News commentator.
Popular on WSJ



Title: Senator Barasso wrote a warning to Obama
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 24, 2015, 06:40:26 AM
The Clinton Foundation Is the Democratic Party . . . and Arguably, the U.S. Government As Well
Jonathan Chait comes to terms with the obvious:
When you are a power couple consisting of a former president and a current secretary of State and likely presidential candidate, you have the ability to raise a lot of money for charitable purposes that can do a lot of good. But some of the potential sources of donations will be looking to get something in return for their money other than moral satisfaction or the chance to hobnob with celebrities. Some of them want preferential treatment from the State Department, and others want access to a potential future Clinton administration. To run a private operation where Bill Clinton will deliver a speech for a (huge) fee and a charity that raises money from some of the same clients is a difficult situation to navigate. To overlay that fraught situation onto Hillary’s ongoing and likely future government service makes it all much harder.
And yet the Clintons paid little to no attention to this problem . . .
The Obama administration wanted Hillary Clinton to use official government email. She didn’t. The Obama administration also demanded that the Clinton Foundation disclose all its donors while she served as Secretary of State. It didn’t comply with that request, either.
The Clintons’ charitable initiatives were a kind of quasi-government run by themselves, which was staffed by their own loyalists and made up the rules as it went along.
This explains a bit about why the 2016 cycle could turn out to be another battle between a Clinton and a Bush. (For what it’s worth, I don’t think it will shake out this way.)
The presidency dominates American political life, making every ex-president the former boss of just about every middle-management or rising star figure in his party. If you’re in politics, if you haven’t worked for a president, chances are you’re one degree of separation away from someone who worked for one.
(This was one of the things that made Barack Obama’s win over Hillary in the 2008 primary so improbable -- she had all the veteran national-campaign staffers, pollsters, strategists, etc.)
George W. Bush casts a long shadow on the 2016 Republican field, far beyond his brother. Among those who worked for George W. Bush: Ted Cruz, who worked on the Bush 2000 campaign and in the Federal Trade Commission; Bobby Jindal, who was an assistant secretary of Health and Human Services from 2001 to 2003; Chris Christie, who Bush appointed U.S. Attorney for New Jersey; Rick Perry was Bush’s lieutenant governor in 1999 and 2000; and arguably Carly Fiorina, who served on CIA and State Department advisory committees during the Bush years.
The Clintons, Inc., make up a big slice of the professional class of the Democratic party. And the Bush Family, Inc., makes up a big slice of the professional class of the Republican party.
And as we’ve seen . . . who in the party can tell a former president what he can and can’t do? Who in the Democratic party was willing to put his foot down and tell the Clintons “no”?
There were people who were trying to say “no” . . .
Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., where Uranium One’s largest U.S. operation was, wrote to President Obama, saying the deal “would give the Russian government control over a sizable portion of America’s uranium production capacity.”
. . . but they were ignored.
Last night on Greta Van Susteren’s program, Barrasso said, “We tried to throw the penalty flag early on . . . We were very concerned from the standpoint of energy security for our country, and national security. Now you see Vladimir Putin owning 20 percent of American uranium, controlling that and we know Russia sends uranium to countries that are not our friends, that are our enemies, including Iran.”
He said he received a letter, three months later, from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission that said the commission would keep an eye on the deal. He said that based on his discussions with “people on the ground,” American uranium has left the country and gone overseas, without the company getting the necessary special permissions and permits.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 26, 2015, 07:21:53 AM
The author of the Clinton Cash book that could very well take down Hillary Clinton says that he has researchers 4 months into a look at Jeb Bush's financial affairs. (Fox News Sunday today) Too early to comment he says but hints that they are finding similar patterns, with the main difference being that the stakes with a Governor are smaller and less global.  Bush seems like a moral, standup and straightforward guy and can probably explain quite well every action he took as Governor.  But somehow these well-connected people stumble into big money quite easily.  The timing of it is that it follows the Hillary scandal and in the context of a little Clinton-Bush fatigue.  It could turn out that his big money advantage for Bush will turn out to be a negative in the campaign. 

That said, I doubt he was responsible for the transfer of our nuclear fuel assets to one of our largest, state enemies.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile, I see that both Cruz and Rubio or up and that Marco Rubio moved into first place (within the margin of error) in the latest two polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

The goal at this early stage is probably just to poll high enough to stay relevant.





Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, debunking Clinton Bush electoral juggernaut myth
Post by: DougMacG on April 28, 2015, 08:57:37 AM
Daily Caller has a piece debunking the electoral clout of these alleged dynasties.  George HW Bush ran for President 3 times.  Lost in 1980.  Won once, the so-called Reagan 3rd term in 1988.  Got only 37% of the vote in 1992 running on his own record.  Hardly a electoral powerhouse.

Bill Clinton ran and won twice, both with less than 50% of the vote, 43% and 49%.

George W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 with 49%.  Won as a post 911 war time President with only 50% - over a dolt, and was never popular again.

Hillary was part of Bill 43% win in 1992 and was unpopular by 1994.  She ran and lost in 2007-2008 to an almost unknown in her own party.  (Running unopposed and still floundering now.)

Jeb was a popular Governor, last won an election in 2002, 14 years prior to 2016, (and currently trails Marco Rubio in his home state polling).
------------------------------
http://dailycaller.com/2015/04/26/history-shows-clintons-and-bushes-are-not-electoral-juggernauts/
History Shows Clintons And Bushes Are NOT Electoral Juggernauts
Title: 2016 Presidential: Martin O’Malley’s Terrible Fiscal Record
Post by: DougMacG on April 28, 2015, 09:05:03 AM
Striving for equal time for all the competitors.  )  Thanks to Cato for covering this.

C'mon Dems, are these really the best leaders you can find?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/martin-omalleys-terrible-fiscal-record

From the article:
He raised just about every tax in Maryland. Governor O’Malley:

Raised the top personal income tax rate from 4.75 to 5.75 percent. With local taxes on top, Maryland’s top rate is 8.95 percent.
Raised the corporate tax rate from 7.0 to 8.25 percent.
Raised the sales tax rate from 5 to 6 percent and expanded the sales tax base.
Raised the sales tax rate on beer, wine, and spirits by 50 percent.
Raised the gas tax by 20 cents over four years, almost doubling the rate from 23.5 cents.
Doubled the cigarette tax from $1 to $2 per pack.
Imposed higher taxes on vehicle registration.
Imposed a stormwater mitigation fee on property owners, or a “rain tax.”
After eight years, O’Malley had hit income earners, businesses, consumers, smokers, beer drinkers, wine drinkers, and drivers, which probably means everyone in the state. He didn’t just punish the top 1 percent often targeted by Democrats — he gave a tax spanking to all 100 percent of Marylanders.

By 2014 Marylanders had finally had enough. In the gubernatorial election, Republican Larry Hogan pulled off a stunning upset over Democrat Anthony Brown. As the Washington Post said, Hogan’s win was powered by “relentlessly promising to roll back tax increases,” and it was a “repudiation of the eight-year tenure” of O’Malley. Hogan is focusing on rolling back some of the tax hikes, starting with the rain tax.
...
Maryland’s pension funding ratio is just 64 percent, below the 50-state average of 71 percent, and much less than the full-funding ratio of 100 percent. That means that Marylanders could face more tax hikes down the road unless bloated state worker benefits are scaled back.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 29, 2015, 10:03:27 AM
"C'mon Dems, are these really the best leaders you can find?"

Many liberals would prefer a candidate even  *farther* to the left.   :?
Title: Morris: Obama and Dems say "Not yet!"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 01, 2015, 10:16:33 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/obama-to-hillary-not-yet-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 01, 2015, 10:22:53 AM
Second post

I saw Bret Baeir interview ex-Gov. Pataki of NY last night.   Who?  Exactly, but he is the Rep who beat Mario Cuomo and got re-elected.   I was pleasantly surprised at the quality of his answers and at his grounded, self-deprecating sense of self.   He's not likely to go far, but he may add to the quality of the conversation.
Title: Surprise! Hillary supports amnesty
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 05, 2015, 08:33:50 AM
y
Laura Meckler
May 5, 2015 6:00 a.m. ET
122 COMMENTS

LAS VEGAS—Hillary Clinton, making her first visit to Nevada since she announced her 2016 presidential run, will call for a path to citizenship for some 11 million people in the U.S. illegally, and contrast that position with Republican contenders who stop short of that stance.

In 2013, the Senate passed legislation with some GOP support that offered the chance for citizenship for those who qualified. But that bill died in the Republican-controlled House, and GOP support for the idea has dried up. Mrs. Clinton plans to meet with young people at a Las Vegas high school.

“She will say that the standard for a true solution is nothing less than a full and equal path to citizenship,” said a Clinton aide, previewing her remarks. “She will say that we cannot settle for proposals that provide hardworking people with merely a ’second-class’ status.”

That is a reference principally to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the all-but-declared presidential candidate who once supported a path to citizenship but now is promoting the opportunity for a legal status short of citizenship. Even that is unpopular among many GOP primary voters. Critics of a path to citizenship or other legal status say it would reward people who broke the law.

Many Democrats see Mr. Bush as a strong general-election contender in part because of his potential to appeal to Hispanic voters, who overwhelmingly supported Democrat Barack Obama in his two elections. Mr. Bush has long spoken of immigration in welcoming terms, speaks fluent Spanish and is married to a Latina woman.
Negative views of Hillary Clinton have risen in the past month amid news of controversial fundraising practices by her family's charitable foundation, a new WSJ/NBC News poll shows. How should her supporters interpret the new numbers? WSJ’s Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer.

Mrs. Clinton has supported a path to citizenship at least as far back as 2006, though she has taken more cautious positions on other immigration issues. She at one point opposed driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, though an aide recently said that she now supports that policy. Last summer, she upset some immigration advocates when she said that unaccompanied children coming across the border illegally should be sent back to their home countries.

Mrs. Clinton’s appearance on Tuesday is meant to begin laying the groundwork to tell Hispanic voters that Mr. Bush isn’t as supportive of a liberalized immigration policy as Mrs. Clinton and other Democrats are.

“Clinton will talk about her commitment to fixing our broken immigration system by passing comprehensive immigration reform that provides a path to citizenship, treats everyone with dignity and compassion, upholds the rule of law, protects our border and national security, and brings millions of hardworking people out of the shadows and into the formal economy so they can pay taxes and contribute to our nation’s prosperity,” the aide said.

Mrs. Clinton, the leading Democratic candidate for president by a wide margin, will meet with young people who were brought to the U.S. illegally as children. Mr. Obama took executive action to protect these people among other undocumented immigrants from deportation. GOP candidates including Mr. Bush say his move overstepped presidential authority and have said they would roll it back.

She will appear at Rancho High School, which has a student body that is about 70% Hispanic, the Clinton campaign said.

Nevada is one of a handful of states with large Hispanic populations that have been closely fought in recent presidential races.

Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 05, 2015, 08:44:10 AM
There are a lot of federal laws the Clintons don't want enforced.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 05, 2015, 09:41:51 AM
There are a lot of federal laws the Clintons don't want enforced.

Pardon me?  Pardon Bill.  Pardon Sandy Burglar.  Marc Rich.  Anyone who knows a Rodham brother.  Pardons for sale in the Lincoln Bedroom.  'Prosecutorial discretion'.  Lighten up a little on commodities trading.  Pardon all white collar criminals whose party affiliation starts with a D.  Restore the voting rights of felons.  There are just too many Democrats people incarcerated these days!

There she is, blatantly mixing political gain with executive overreach, on her first stop - without apology.  Besides an extra-constitutional immigration policy, why not add IRS targeting of political opponents to the list of Obama policies she hopes to continue?

No matter your view on taxes, spending or the Middle East, what kind of voter believes the next Attorney General of the United States should report to Hillary Clinton?
Title: WSJ
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 05, 2015, 11:22:32 AM
A mere three U.S. Presidents—Taylor, Grant and Eisenhower—have been elected without previously holding political office. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina now aspire to be the fourth, and they promise to enrich the Republican field even if they’re long shots.

The 63-year-old Mr. Carson, who declared his candidacy Monday in his native Detroit, rose from poverty to become one of the world’s pre-eminent neurosurgeons. At age 33 he was the youngest doctor appointed director of the Johns Hopkins pediatric neurosurgery unit and performed path-breaking operations such as the first separation of twins conjoined at the head.
Opinion Journal Video
Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina joining the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Photo credit: Getty Images.

In 1994 he and his wife started a college scholarship fund that has distributed $700,000 in awards to mostly poor middle- and high-school students. The fund is purely philanthropic—no donations and speaking fees with uranium deals—and predates Mr. Carson’s political activities.

Mr. Carson has long been admired for his Horatio Alger story, and his autobiography “Gifted Hands” has inspired many young people. In 2006 the NAACP accorded him the same honor it has bestowed on Rosa Parks,Oprah Winfrey and Congressman John Lewis. But now that Mr. Carson is running for President as a Republican, and criticizing President Obama, the Washington Post greeted his entry into the race with an odd piece saying he’s diminishing his legacy.

This is a familiar liberal attempt to force the races into partisan boxes, as if no black American should criticize the first black President. This is unfair to Mr. Carson and bad for the country. Mr. Carson’s appeals to individual liberty and personal responsibility echo civil-rights leaders including Martin Luther King Jr. and Frederick Douglass, among others. Race relations would be far healthier if voters divided more by personal philosophy than by racial identity. Civil-rights leaders should want black Republicans to aspire to the highest office.

Mr. Carson’s views such as his support for a flat tax and health-savings accounts are also in the mainstream of the GOP. His weakness is that he’s new to the political game, which makes him a fresh voice but also has caused him to stumble in recent months with some public comments—for instance, comparing the IRS bias against conservative groups to Nazi Germany.

Ms. Fiorina, age 60, also has an impressive resumé and has been a political student since she was a child in a politically active family. She rose from secretary of a real-estate firm to the top of Hewlett-Packard, no small accomplishment. While she was ousted in a boardroom brawl, her strategy that involved acquiring PC-manufacturer Compaq was largely vindicated by later events.

Although Ms. Fiorina lost a California Senate race to Barbara Boxer in 2010, she outperformed Meg Whitman on the Republican ticket despite spending a fraction as much. She has also impressed on the stump this year with her grasp of the issues, including health-care reform, the Export-Import Bank, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Russian revanchism.

Both candidates can make a contribution to the GOP debate, and they’ll have a chance to test their theory that the party wants a political outsider rather than career politicians. That’s a harder sell after Mr. Obama’s failures from inexperience, but then they aren’t burdened with his bad ideas.
Title: Pravda on the Hudson: Hillary gaining favor
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 05, 2015, 04:01:09 PM
Hillary Rodham Clinton Gaining Favor, Times/CBS Poll Says
Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state and the practices of her family’s foundation, an indication that she is starting her second presidential bid with an unusual durability among Democratic voters.
Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and as a stronger leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics, a New York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a female president.
READ MORE »
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-gains-favor-times-cbs-poll-says.html?emc=edit_na_20150505

Title: Re: Pravda on the Hudson: Hillary gaining favor
Post by: G M on May 05, 2015, 05:04:47 PM
Hillary Rodham Clinton Gaining Favor, Times/CBS Poll Says
Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state and the practices of her family’s foundation, an indication that she is starting her second presidential bid with an unusual durability among Democratic voters.
Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and as a stronger leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics, a New York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a female president.
READ MORE »
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-gains-favor-times-cbs-poll-says.html?emc=edit_na_20150505



Translation : lie, lie, lie.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 05, 2015, 06:24:13 PM
"Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state and the practices of her family’s foundation ..."

So that's how it works; never answer, apologize or even comply with the law and then go back out and start pandering policies to the downtrodden - like illegal aliens.  Running for President is her defense.  Because she is running, everything against her is partisan no matter how valid.

"nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a female president."

And “4 out of 5 dentists surveyed recommend sugarless gum to their patients who chew gum.”

What do the other dentists recommend?  What voter is not ready for a woman to be President IF SHE HAD ALL THE RIGHT QUALITIES to be President?  What conservative is not ready for an American Maggie Thatcher to emerge?  What Dem would not support Hillary if she had ANY good qualities.  They're going to support her without any.

Yes, lies, noise and deception.  They poll to make news.  Manipulate the timing, questions and sample chosen to get the desired result, then report the phony result as news which makes it tend to come true.  If people are allegedly over the email scandal just because of freshness dating, is that more newsworthy than the fact she hasn't answered for it yet?
Title: Sanders vs. Paul on Health Care as a right
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 11, 2015, 06:19:54 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUXwDMqjC-A&app=desktop
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 13, 2015, 06:05:23 PM
y
Fred Barnes
May 13, 2015 7:13 p.m. ET
12 COMMENTS

Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, the two most prominent candidates for president in 2016, are gambling. Their campaign strategies are risky. Mr. Bush is hovering closer to the political center than his rivals for the Republican nomination are. Mrs. Clinton is moving to the left in her bid for the Democratic nomination.

Their strategies are perilous for different reasons. Mr. Bush wants to avoid sounding too conservative now and thus present a more broadly appealing candidate in the general election later. In doing so, he could lose the race for the GOP nomination.

Mrs. Clinton is an overwhelming favorite on the Democratic side, but she is taking no chances. The energy in her party is on the left, personified by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.). By adopting Ms. Warren’s stance on issues, Mrs. Clinton hopes to keep her out of the race. But this could make Mrs. Clinton seem too left-wing to win the general election.

Oddly enough, these game plans match those of David Cameron and Ed Miliband in last week’s British election. Mr. Cameron, the Conservative prime minister, tacked to the center during the campaign. Mr. Miliband, worried about the appeal of the socialist Scottish National Party, moved Labour to the left. Mr. Cameron’s Tories won overwhelmingly.

This led to speculation that the U.K. outcome has implications for the U.S. presidential race—that the result supports Jeb Bush’s strategy and raises doubts about Mrs. Clinton’s. It has been noted that the election of President Reagan in 1980 followed the emergence of Margaret Thatcher as prime minister in 1979, as if one conservative’s victory led to the other’s.

But politics doesn’t usually work that way. President Bill Clinton and Labour’s Tony Blair were similar in pulling their parties away from the left in the 1990s. But in that case Mr. Clinton’s election in 1992 preceded Mr. Blair’s in 1997.

As governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007, Mr. Bush was a hard-nosed conservative. In Florida “we shifted toward a conservative philosophy,” he told a New Hampshire audience in April. “We cut taxes every year,” totaling $19 billion, he said, and “I vetoed 2,500 separate line items in the budget.”

But there were deviations from conservatism back then, too. Mr. Bush refused to sign the antitax pledge sought by Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform. He has never flinched on that position, recently saying that he opposed such pledges on principle.

For years, Mr. Bush has favored immigration reform to allow illegal immigrants to become legal residents. He doesn’t support a special path to citizenship. In campaigning for governor, he ran an ad with flags of Latin American countries, welcoming immigrants who had legally come to the U.S. from those nations.

Well before running for president, Mr. Bush became an advocate of Common Core, which would set national standards for math and English in schools. The federal government, he said in April in New Hampshire, shouldn’t be involved in Common Core at all. Nonetheless, his backing of Common Core upsets many conservatives.

As a candidate, Mr. Bush can be subtle in his tacking to the center. He spoke last Saturday at Liberty University in Virginia, where Republican Sen. Ted Cruz announced his candidacy for president on March 23. Mr. Bush didn’t mention Mr. Cruz. But his unapologetic defense of Christianity was more persuasive than that of other Republicans. It had few applause lines. He warned against fueling Democratic claims of excessive religiosity in the GOP.

“The mistake is to confuse points of theology with moral principles that are knowable to reason as well as by faith,” he said. “And this confusion is all part of a false narrative that casts religious Americans as intolerant scolds, running around trying to impose their views on everyone.”

Mr. Bush backs traditional marriage but speaks respectfully of proponents of same-sex marriage. “I hope that we can show respect for the good people on all sides of the gay and lesbian marriage issue, including couples making lifetime commitments to each other who are seeking greater legal protections,” he said at the Conservative Political Action Conference in February.

Hillary Clinton’s moves to the left have been both rhetorical and substantive as she echoes liberals like Ms. Warren. “The deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top and there is something wrong with that,” Mrs. Clinton said while campaigning in Iowa a month ago. After a supposedly off-the-record meeting with economists, she was quoted in the New York Times as having said that the economy required a “toppling” of the richest 1% of Americans.

Her boldest step has been to call for expanding President Obama’s executive order legalizing up to five million illegal immigrants. “I would do everything under the law to go even further,” she announced in Las Vegas last week.

On issues that divide Democrats, such as the Keystone XL pipeline and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade treaty, she has declined to take a position. But her desire to gain labor-union support may force her to publicly oppose both.

Mrs. Clinton seems unmindful of the problem that Democrats can face when they drift too far from the center. They lost the presidential races in 1972, 1980 and 1984, with George McGovern, Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale, when this happened.

And that, for what it’s worth, is precisely what doomed Labour’s Ed Miliband in the U.K. election. Mr. Cameron, meanwhile, appears to have been helped by “shy Tory” voters who declined to tell pollsters that they would vote for Conservatives.

An American version of that phenomenon may come to the aid of Mr. Bush. He is constantly under attack from noisemakers in the Republican orbit—talk radio, tea party activists, conservative bloggers, critics of political dynasties. And so his soft supporters may have been intimidated. Until voting begins next year, we won’t know how many “shy Bushies” there are.

Mr. Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard, is a Fox News commentator.
Title: 2016 Presidential: Blood Feud, Michelle Obama vs. Hillary Clinton?
Post by: DougMacG on May 14, 2015, 02:39:31 PM
Somewhere in the archives I said that it was Michelle Obama, not Hillary Clinton, that I fear most as a Republican.

Did anyone see the First Lady's angry, passionate commencement address?

Rasmussen Reports picked up on it.

What If Michelle Obama Challenged Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Nomination?http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/may_2015/what_if_michelle_obama_challenged_hillary_clinton_for_the_democratic_nomination

This solves all the Democrats problems.  Hillary and Obama aren't getting along.  Warren and Obama aren't getting along.  The Dem runs with the President's baggage no matter what, and need the support of his political machine to win.  With Hillary, they gain on gender advantage but lose the authentic African American advantage.  Michelle really is an authentic African-American, and really is a woman.  She isn't expected to turn against the incumbent, yet can say she will be her own person.  Anyone who differs with her can be called both racist and sexist.  And Dems still get what they really want, someone totally unqualified to be President who can continue the dismantling of everything that made this nation great.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 15, 2015, 10:05:49 AM
The Reps should already have the act together on the Iraq War, but still struggle.  Some relevant points made here:

Republicans and Iraq
How Jeb Bush could have answered the gotcha question.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ENLARGE
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush Photo: Getty Images
May 14, 2015 7:35 p.m. ET
155 COMMENTS

Knowing what we know now, would we have urged President George W. Bush to invade Iraq, as we did at the time? A version of this question was put to Jeb Bush by Fox News’s Megyn Kelly the other day, and, well, oh dear.

The former Florida Governor and presumptive Republican presidential candidate told Ms. Kelly Monday that he would have authorized an invasion, adding “and so would have Hillary Clinton”—a reminder that the Democratic frontrunner is the only person in the 2016 race who cast a vote for the war. But Mrs. Clinton long ago recanted that vote, and Mr. Bush recanted his answer, too, telling an Arizona audience on Thursday that he would not have invaded “knowing what we know now.”
Opinion Journal Video
Best of the Web Columnist James Taranto on the former Florida Governor’s position on the Iraq war. Photo credit: Getty Images.

We’ll leave aside what Mr. Bush’s struggles with the inevitable question say about his preparedness as a candidate—and his team’s as a campaign. The right answer to the question is that it’s not a useful or instructive one to answer, because statesmanship, like life, is not conducted in hindsight. Knowing what we know now, we wouldn’t have been in equities in 2008, or bet on the Green Bay Packers in January. Sigh.

The better question, and one that would better address Mr. Bush’s fitness as a potential Commander in Chief, is what lessons he would draw from Iraq that would inform his own decision-making if confronted with similar circumstances.

Plainly one lesson would be that Presidents cannot take the claims of their intelligence agencies as conclusive. George W. Bush took the country to war in the sincere belief that Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction was a “slam dunk” case, as then-CIA Director George Tenet believed.

Mr. Bush’s critics, both the dishonest and the foolish, called him a liar for the mistake. But as the 2005 bipartisan Robb-Silberman report on the intelligence leading up to the war noted, it was the CIA’s “own independent judgments—flawed though they were—that led them to conclude Iraq had active WMD programs.”

So how to do better? Mr. Bush could cite the experience of his father, George H.W. Bush, who as CIA director in the Ford Administration organized a “Team B” panel of outside experts to question his agency’s estimates of Soviet military power and strategy. Historians still debate the merits of Team B’s conclusions, but the point is that the quality of intelligence, like everything else, improves with choice and competition.

A second lesson Mr. Bush could draw is that when America does go to war it should fight to win—and win fast. The 2007 surge was an act of military genius and political courage, but it came four years too late.

Before then, Iraq policy suffered when military planners and the CIA both failed to anticipate that Saddam Hussein would fight the war as an insurgency after Baghdad fell. It suffered, too, when the White House decided to impose the Bremer Regency on Iraq instead of immediately handing the reins of political power to Iraqi leaders, so they could solve their own problems.

At the same time, Mr. Bush might note that the war in Iraq wasn’t fought simply on account of Iraq’s presumed possession of illicit weapons. It was Saddam himself who was Iraq’s most destructive WMD, a one-man killing machine who had destabilized the Middle East for 25 years while killing hundreds of thousands of people. And there was also the question of what Saddam might have done had no war taken place.

“Saddam wanted to re-create Iraq’s WMD capability—which was essentially destroyed in 1991—after sanctions were removed and Iraq’s economy stabilized,” noted the 2004 report of the Iraq Survey Group. “Saddam aspired to develop a nuclear capability—in an incremental fashion, irrespective of international pressure and the resulting economic risks—but he intended to focus on ballistic missiles and tactical chemical warfare (CW) capability.”

One other lesson is that, just as there are unintended consequences to military action, there are also consequences to inaction. By 2008 al Qaeda in Iraq was a spent force, demoralized and defeated even according to its own internal communications. It came back and transmogrified into the Islamic State only after President Obama had squandered the gains of the surge by withdrawing all U.S. forces from Iraq, against the wishes of his senior advisers, including then-CIA director Leon Panetta and, yes, Mrs. Clinton.

The media love easy retrospective judgments—we specialize in shooting the wounded—and so do political candidates who want to score easy points. But we suspect voters are smarter than to credit the breezy claims of ex-post-facto wisdom by Mr. Bush’s GOP competitors.

What voters should care about is that the next President will have to confront the new global disorder bequeathed by this Administration. The ultimate lesson of Iraq is that there are no easy calls in foreign policy, and that intelligence of the sort generated by spooks can never substitute for the judgment required of statesmen.
Title: Christie's tax proposal
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 15, 2015, 11:54:42 PM
 May 15, 2015 6:50 p.m. ET
29 COMMENTS

The Washington smart set has all but written off Chris Christie’s presidential chances, but you wouldn’t know it from the way the New Jersey Governor is staking out positions as a conservative reformer. On Tuesday he rolled out a significant tax reform outline as part of a larger agenda for restoring an economic growth rate of 4%.

This follows Mr. Christie’s proposal last month for reforming entitlements for seniors, including an increase in the retirement age and reducing future benefits for the affluent. Perhaps Mr. Christie feels he needs to be out front on policy to overcome the political setbacks in his home state, but his forays are welcome and will help to shape the Republican primary debate if he does formally enter the presidential race.

Mr. Christie puts his policies in the proper context by focusing on faster economic growth as the most important policy goal for the next President. The Obama era has seen the worst recovery since the 1930s despite record federal “stimulus” spending and six years of near-zero interest rates. Without faster growth every problem becomes harder to solve, and the American faith in upward economic mobility will ebb.

The 4% goal is ambitious, and some might say politically injudicious if Mr. Christie happens to be elected. Critics would throw back the target as a rebuke if it wasn’t met. But voters understand it’s not a guarantee but an aspiration, and having such an overriding growth goal makes it easier for a White House to judge every policy by whether it helps meet it. If not, don’t do it.

One of President Obama’s tragic mistakes has been putting social-policy goals—health care, climate change, income redistribution—above faster growth. This has consequences, not least that growth hasn’t exceeded 2.5% in a single year of his Presidency. By contrast, the U.S. averaged more than 4% growth from 1983-1988 and did it again from 1997-2000. Those were periods of rapid poverty reduction and rising wages for all income groups, and we should be able to do it again.

The centerpiece of Mr. Christie’s proposal is a tax reform that would simplify the code by cutting rates in return for fewer deductions. The Governor proposes an individual income tax with three rates and a top rate of 28%. He’d also cut the corporate rate to 25% from 35%, including a one-time rate of 8.75% for businesses that repatriate capital they have parked overseas.

Mr. Christie’s focus on tax rates is crucial for growth and important politically. The Washington fashion these days is to believe that tax reform with substantially lower rates is all but impossible. You know, so 1980s.

But the economic evidence is substantial that lower marginal tax rates provide the biggest growth bang. Mr. Christie’s reform is thus superior to Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s reform plan, which pegs the top individual rate at 35%. Mr. Rubio devotes $1.6 trillion over 10 years to tax credits for families with children, which does nothing for growth.

Mr. Christie tells us he hasn’t decided how to treat dividends and capital gains, which are now taxed at a top rate of 23.8%. But those preferential rates become less important economically if the overall income tax rate is low enough. Mr. Christie also says his reform would be “a net tax reduction, or in the worst case deficit neutral.” But he tells us he’d also want revenue scoring to account for the positive impact on growth “because that’s what happens in the economy when things are going in the right way.” He’s right.

As for deductions, Mr. Christie preserves them for charitable contributions and mortgage interest “at least for a first home.” This is a bow to the popularity of these two deductions among middle-income Americans, though they have little economic justification. The better news is that Mr. Christie says every other deduction would be up for negotiation, including the costly and politically sensitive breaks for state and local taxes and employer-sponsored health insurance.

Mr. Christie’s plan has many other planks, some worthier than others, but as important as the details is how a candidate sells them. One reason Mitt Romney failed in pitching his tax reform in 2012 is that he never seemed to believe it. At some level he internalized the Democratic critique that he lacked credibility because he was rich.

Mr. Christie has never suffered from such self-doubt, and it will be fascinating to see the New Jersey brawler make the populist case for a pro-growth reform. He is putting down a marker for other candidates to meet.
Title: Re: Christie's tax proposal
Post by: DougMacG on May 16, 2015, 07:51:05 PM
"The centerpiece of Mr. Christie’s proposal is a tax reform that would simplify the code by cutting rates in return for fewer deductions. The Governor proposes an individual income tax with three rates and a top rate of 28%. Mr. Christie’s reform is thus superior to Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s reform plan, which pegs the top individual rate at 35%. "

True.

Mr. Rubio devotes $1.6 trillion over 10 years to tax credits for families with children, which does nothing for growth.

Also true. 

Omitted by critics is that Rubio's plan eliminates all capital gains and estate taxes allowing people to at least accumulate after-tax wealth.  Not much of an analysis or comparison if you skip that.

The candidate has to get elected for the tax plan to matter, and a campaign tax plan is a starting point for negotiation with congress, not an actual, future law.

Last time around all of the R's had great plans, right down to Huntsman, Pawlenty, even Romney!  No one made the sale and what we got was 4 more years of Obama-Alinsky-Marx.
Title: Bush blows it.
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 16, 2015, 08:39:20 PM
Good comments on the tax proposals Doug.

I think Bush has made what will turn out to be a fatal error with his failure to assert the ultimate success of Iraq due to the surge.  Obama was handed a winning hand, and threw it away.

Rubio has missed a big opportunity in not taking the initiative here.

Instead, the Reps are accepting the meme that "Iraq was an error".   

It might be politically scary, but IMHO asserting the defeat of AQ and the success of establishing a democratic government and that leaving troops was no different than what we did in Germany, Japan, and Korea is the way to go.  As the fustercluck in the Middle East continues to spiral out of control, this doubling down on our part would prove to be politically wise as well.
Title: Clinton--Castro?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 18, 2015, 07:37:29 AM
Really? We Can Pencil It In Already? Clinton-Castro 2016?
If you were a clear-thinking Democrat, this is the sort of news that would make you burst into tears of despair:
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is likely to choose Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Julián Castro or another Hispanic politician to be her running mate, former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros said in an interview that will air Sunday.
“What I am hearing in Washington, including from people in Hillary Clinton’s campaign, is that the first person on their lists is Julián Castro, the . . . Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, who use[d] to be the Mayor of San Antonio,” he said in an interview with Univision’s “Al Punto.”
“They don’t have a second option, because he is the superior candidate considering his record, personality, demeanor and Latin heritage.”
“I think there is a very high possibility that Hillary Clinton may choose Julián Castro,” he said.”
A one-option veep list? That Democratic bench isn’t just thin, it’s anorexic. And do Democrats really want to put the 40-year-old Castro a heartbeat away from the presidency? If this pans out, we’ll get to watch Democrats and the media insisting that Castro’s time as mayor of San Antonio and two years at HUD represented some sort of American policy renaissance and an era of bold leadership.
Back in 2012, when Castro was giving the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention, I pointed out that San Antonio hadn’t gotten much better on his watch, particularly in the areas he claimed to emphasize, education and crime. By 2014, as he was joining HUD, his record as mayor included a few more local political scandals and a barely-budging poverty rate, even as the area economy soared from the shale boom. Castro left San Antonio in roughly the same shape as it was before he became mayor – and yet somehow became one of the Democratic party’s biggest stars and, if Cisneros is right, the only serious option to be Hillary’s running mate.
As I summarized last year:
Castro leveraged his rise-from-humble-roots narrative and the occasional wacky joke into national press coverage that most senators and governors would envy — major national-magazine profiles, a TED talk, an appearance on Meet the Press, a six-figure memoir deal. It’s fair to wonder whether Castro would get the same attention if he were not a member of a demographic increasingly important for national politics.
Cisneros’s appearing on the ticket would demonstrate that identity politics is to Democrats like that old quote about winning is to sports coaches: It’s not everything, it’s the only thing.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 18, 2015, 07:41:41 AM
Surprised it wasn't Fidel.
Title: depressing
Post by: ccp on May 18, 2015, 08:23:07 AM
I have held out that Clinton the First was the worst President we ever had by dumbing down the integrity of the office of Presidency. 

Now Clinton the Second is even far worse.   What a criminal organization!

It's a total shake down of the entire business industry.

Reminiscent of minions laying tributes down at the feet of the emperors to gain favor or avoid their wrath.

This is exactly what our founders wanted to avoid.

The corruption is astounding and up front for all of us to behold what a terrible world we live in.

Very sad.   As GM says why bother to play by rules, be an honest person, or do good in the world.   A world that is ruled by such scum.

With all the immigrants invited in by the Democrat party and the inside Republicans for cheap labor or because they are afraid to offend them - as soon as they start voting - legally or illegally - the game will be over.

Almost there. 

And with the continued chip driven world controlled by select companies and the government cronies the future for freedom and liberty looks doomed.

Many people my age feel as I do.  Glad they will not be around much longer.

The newer generations have no clue.
Title: Re: Clinton--Castro?
Post by: DougMacG on May 18, 2015, 10:20:53 PM
Yes, it will be interesting to see who she picks if she wins the nomination.  I knew Castro was on the short list; I didn't know he was the only one on it!

The way the process and calendar is set up, Democrats will have their convention in late July, immediately after they see what the Republicans do, although its possible that these selections are made before then.

There are so many scenarios.  If it is Rubio and the attack planned on him is that he is too young and too inexperienced, do you pick someone younger yet and even less experienced? 

Shouldn't she pick a woman if the argument is that they are a better choice?  What if the Republican picks a woman and Hillary doesn't.  Who is looking out for women then?

Untested and unvetted is high risk.  Let's assume she is risk averse, shouldn't she pick Joe Biden?  He already knows how to do the job, how to sit still in the chair behind the State of the Union speech, and to grope the families of the federal officials being sworn in.

The strategy is to double down on leftist and genitalianism, why not pick Elizabeth Warren?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 18, 2015, 10:34:12 PM
Look for Rand Paul to win the Iowa straw poll this August.  He won the CPAC straw poll 3 times.  The Pauls know how to turn out activists in the smaller settings.

https://www.predictit.org/home/SingleOption?contractID=633#sthash.DU09L4sK.dpbs
Title: 2016 Presidential, Bobby Jindal: Iran isn't Iraq and this isn't 2003
Post by: DougMacG on May 20, 2015, 10:05:28 AM
Jindal isn't getting traction yet but this is a long campaign and having a two term Governor speak out with wisdom on foreign poicy is a very good thing for the process.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/418634/iran-isnt-iraq-and-isnt-2003-bobby-jindal

Instead of rehashing the Iraq War, let’s face today’s much more serious threat from Iran. You have to give the media credit for trying. Last week saw a manufactured debate about a manufactured subject — whether our country should have invaded Iraq in 2003 based on what we know in 2015 about the course of events in the Middle East. But there’s a reason why the phrase “hindsight is 20/20” contains more than a kernel of truth — because Monday-morning quarterbacking, however nice it might make others feel, doesn’t change the past one whit.

In the real world, presidents have to play the hand of cards they are dealt. President Bush did just operating off the information he had, and he did it well. Unlike President Obama — who decided to withdraw our forces in Iraq precipitously, endearing himself to war-weary voters but creating a vacuum for terrorists — President Bush kept our country safe after 9/11, and Americans appreciate him for it. I supported his decision to get rid of Saddam Hussein, and I will not second-guess him now even for one minute.

But if the media are going to play these games, then let me add a few. I’m pretty sure that President Roosevelt would have increased patrols around Oahu on the morning of December 7, 1941. I don’t think King Philip II of Spain would have sent his Armada into the English Channel in the summer of 1588. And I’m fairly certain that Red Sox owner Harry Frazee would not have sold Babe Ruth’s contract rights to the New York Yankees.

But the more important question is not how Hillary Clinton and others have changed their minds on Iraq; it’s how she and the president she worked for have learned the wrong lesson from that conflict. Because this decade’s answer to an Iraqi regime that did not in reality possess large numbers of chemical and biological weapons is not to leave Iran within easy striking distance of a nuclear bomb. RELATED: Iran: Isolated No Longer

Consider for a moment the October 2002 remarks of a then-unknown state senator named Barack Obama. Prior to the Iraq conflict, the future president said he did not oppose all wars, just “dumb wars.” He believed that “Saddam [Hussein] poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States or to his neighbors, that the Iraqi economy is in shambles, that the Iraqi military [is] a fraction of its former strength,” and that the international community could contain what he considered a “petty dictator.”

Contrast his comments about Iraq then to the situation in Iran now. Iran refuses to recognize Israel’s right to exist; its leaders have talked about “eliminating” the state. Just last week, President Obama himself called Iran a “state sponsor of terrorism” for fomenting rebellion within the Middle East and elsewhere. The Wall Street Journal reported that “Iran could receive somewhere between $30 billion and $50 billion [just for] signing the agreement” — an economic boon and a funding source for more new munitions. Yet as it is, Iran has not lacked for military strength: The Russian military just sold Iran a passel of new missiles — belying the belief that this rogue regime can be easily contained. Iran is much more of a threat now than Iraq was then. But President Obama seems ready to pay any price to get a deal — any deal — out of Iran.

In short, Iran is much more of a threat now than Iraq was then. But President Obama seems ready to pay any price to get a deal — any deal — out of Iran. So unwilling to contemplate a military engagement in the Middle East is he, he appears scared of his shadow. Yet if the shadow of Barack Obama circa 2002 were around today, he would not call Iran a “dumb war.” To the contrary, he might even consider taking the military option off the table to be, well, dumb.

I don’t relish this criticism, nor the thought of armed conflict with Iran. I deprecate war in all its forms and consider it the ultimate last resort. But a last resort it must always remain.

It’s possible to over-learn the lessons of history.  In retrospect, it’s easy to argue that Britain, France, and the United States should have fought German and Italian aggression in Europe well before Hitler invaded Poland. But after the horrors of Verdun, Passchendaele, and the Somme, Neville Chamberlain and his contemporaries so feared the outbreak of another Great War that for years they handsomely rewarded aggression in their midst — setting the stage for an even bloodier global conflict.

That’s why the media hype of the past week hasn’t just been irrelevant; in many respects, the Iraq obsession is dangerous. Every minute we spend arguing about what should, could, or would have happened in Iraq a dozen years ago is a minute our nation is not talking about what must happen about Iran now. We ignore the current threat — and the greater threat — at our peril.

A generation ago, Bill Clinton campaigned in 1992 using the Fleetwood Mac song “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow.” The ongoing parlor game over Iraq now echoes a song remade during that era: “It’s So Hard to Say Goodbye to Yesterday.” But our country needs to stop fixating over the debates of the past — and the candidates of the past. The better question is whether we have learned the right lessons from the past, and how they affect the policies of the present. Because if we fail to stop the Iranian regime now, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East could greatly darken our children’s future.

— Bobby Jindal is the governor of Louisiana.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 21, 2015, 07:21:53 AM
Should We Be Excluding GOP Candidates From Debates This Early?
Fox News and CNN are drawing a line in the sand -- er, on the debate stage. If you want to be part of the big show in the first Republican presidential debates, you have to be in the top ten in polling. Otherwise, you’re consigned to other appearances on the network, or as Byron York called it, “the kiddie table.”
“The CNN Republican primary debate on September 16 will be divided into two parts featuring two different sets of candidates: those who rank in the top 10 according to public polling, and the remaining candidates who mean a minimum threshold of one percent in public polling, the On Media blog has learned.”
For college basketball fans, think of the second CNN debate as the NIT Tournament. If everyone agrees you won the second debate, you get to chant, “We’re number eleven! We’re number eleven!”
Ace makes the case that at this point, no serious candidate should be left out:
People don’t know enough to make informed judgments yet. That is the point of a debate -- and that’s the point of a first debate, surely.
We are in the very beginnings of this process, and FoxNews is using polls of uninformed people (and I don’t mean that negatively; most of us are uniformed at this point) to decide who is allowed to run for President.
And yes, this poll -- based on nothing but name recognition -- will in fact knock five or six people out of the contest entirely. Once you’re excluded from a debate, you are labeled “fringe” forever -- and good luck trying to get free media, volunteers, and donors once you’ve been labeled fringe.
. . . This isn’t a normal year. We have a lot of serious candidates. So do we stick with the usual, or do we adjust our practices to take into consideration the unusualness of this season?
I think the latter. My proposal is that they split debate night into two panels, over two nights. (Or two panels on one night-- but that would be a long night, with around three hours total debate time plus time in between.)
The top six in the polls would do a random draw to be split between the panels, three and three. Everyone else would do another random draw to determine which panel they’d be in.
You’d end up having about 6-8 people per panel, which is a workable number.
Note that the Fox “solution” solves little -- having ten people on the stage, answering the same questions, will be a huge [bad word for mess]! It’s barely an improvement over having fifteen -- do the math. Assuming about an hour, all told, answering questions (once the questions themselves, commercials, and basic traffic direction are excluded), ten people would have about six minute each to answer questions.
Fifteen people would have four minutes each.
So we’re fighting to get “four minutes of actual answers per candidate” up to six minutes?
A lot of us have the cynical suspicion that some of the candidates know they have no shot at the nomination, and are running to achieve some lesser goal: the vice-presidential slot, a cabinet post, a television gig, bigger speaking fees and book deals after the election. Last cycle’s experience demonstrated that even the longest of long-shots can end up being the flavor-of-the-month.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 21, 2015, 03:47:17 PM
“The CNN Republican primary debate on September 16 will be divided into two parts featuring two different sets of candidates: those who rank in the top 10 according to public polling, and the remaining candidates who mean a minimum threshold of one percent in public polling"

The first thing wrong with the information above is that CNN is allowed to host.  They should be in at least a 4 year penalty box for their behavior last time.

The Republican party leaders face a good but difficult situation.  As it sits now, there are candidates excluded that I would like to see included.  But if one person like Reince Priebus made that determination, the story would be about him instead of about the candidates.  If you set up stadium seating for 19 or so, the event becomes unmanageable and unwatchable for most viewers.  Early polling data is a lousy criteria, though probably better than all the alternatives.  We are talking about 9 debates over an extended period?  If so, the big news coming into debates 2, 3, 4, etc. is that candidate so-and-so is the new face to watch.  It is a game of momentum, among other things, so missing the first few debates is not necessarily a knockout punch unless a campaign is not organized and managed to survive that.

If not CNN, another network, even if it is pj media (or dbma), can host competing forums to showcase the best of the excluded candidates and ask the same questions - or better ones.  Candidates can cut their own answers out and run ads or post their own videos to promote on the internet.

Bobby Jindal is a two term Governor of a crucial state.  He handled the Katrina aftermath, the gulf oil spill, has immigrant heritage, was a Rhodes Scholar, etc., is young with good ideas; he deserves a look.  People love Ben Carson, fresh face, amazing personal story, big thinker, really accomplished guy; he deserves a look.  I believe he is black, too, which would be good for the party's reach out efforts.  Carly Fiorina has unique qualifications and is showing a unique ability to challenge the front runner of the other side.  She may have an advantage trying to connect with a certain side of the electorate.

Still, reaching the top ten of the Republicans before the 9th debate is very do-able for anyone that is capable of winning the nomination and the general election.  It is not that hard for the top 19 to get a look on conservative media coverage.  Candidates at or near the top will stumble, and this is a very long process.

Title: Pataki goes after CAIR
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 07, 2015, 09:31:04 AM
The man would seem to have no chance whatsoever, but maybe this idea will resonate with some of the others , , ,

https://www.dropbox.com/s/no8zlkltuct0l5x/Gnat%20Warfare%202-HD%201080p.mov?dl=0
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 11, 2015, 09:10:28 PM
I think you've got the wrong link here.  Very interesting anyway.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 11, 2015, 09:48:40 PM
You are right, that is NOT the link I thought I was posting. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Trump
Post by: DougMacG on June 17, 2015, 01:13:36 PM
Hopefully we will not need a trump thread.

It is a mistake to take people like Perot and Trump lightly.  Trump has appeal, and he and Perot both had a superb skill of pointing out what is wrong - with both parties in some cases.

As I understand it, Trump can talk big like a candidate but needs to file very complete financials now within 15 days.  Hopefully that hurdle keeps him from taking up a chair.

So what's wrong with Trump?

Kevin Williamson rips him persuasively here with many facts.  http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419853/witless-ape-rides-escalator-kevin-d-williamson

One tidbit I take from it is 4 bankruptcies.  You may want to run the government more like a business but it isn't a business and you don't run it like a Trump business.  The federal government doesn't need to take risks; it needs to provide a solid foundation for private sector risk taking. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 17, 2015, 02:39:20 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/17/the-man-with-a-plan-donald-trumps-5-part-strategy-to-make-america-great-again/

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419853/witless-ape-rides-escalator-kevin-d-williamson
Title: Racist killer donated money to Cruz, Paul, and other Reps
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 21, 2015, 11:06:21 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/22/us/campaign-donations-linked-to-white-supremacist.html?emc=edit_na_20150622&nlid=49641193&ref=cta&_r=0
Title: Going for the balck vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 29, 2015, 12:12:25 PM
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/06/28/how-small-gains-with-black-voters-could-boost-gop-in-2016/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on June 29, 2015, 07:12:14 PM
Americans get the government they deserve.

Sometimes, since having moved here to Mexico, learning everything in brutality that I have (it's impossible not to), I am certain that we here are already four steps ahead of where America will be before Obama (got to love multiculturalism) leaves office.

You will soon be straddled with Hilary, or yet another Bush crown, and so many still think either the Left or the Right, is the answer they need. Libertarianism is the way to go (peacefully)... barring that, I prefer things the way they are here.

My two cents, but I'm crazy, what do I know?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 30, 2015, 06:36:34 AM
DDF posts, "Sometimes, since having moved here to Mexico, learning everything in brutality that I have (it's impossible not to), I am certain that we here are already four steps ahead of where America will be before Obama (got to love multiculturalism) leaves office."

Interesting.   Would be willing to elaborate?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on June 30, 2015, 06:53:27 PM
Interesting.   Would be willing to elaborate?

Not really. You're watching it all unfold. It's what happens in any country where the people look to the government to grant them their rights (or take them away if people think "safety" actually can exist). It's amusing to watch.

Also amusing, is watching what happens in any country where more than one cultural identity (not to be confused with skin tone), is housed under one flag. I wonder how multiculturalism is going in North Korea, for example. Insert the Bram Stoker's "Dracula" laugh here....because I think it's funny as hell. People will do anything to remain politically correct, even if it means losing their rear end... can't be racist by saying something controversial...heavens no.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 01, 2015, 07:30:02 AM
"People will do anything to remain politically correct, even if it means losing their rear end... "

The internet has really been a boom for the Left.   With immediate excoriating, shaming, marginalizing, and ridiculing of anyone who opposes their world view.  .
It seems to work.  Who wants their face going around the world being shamed

Couldn't have come at a worse time for America.

The Right cannot compete.  Just can't.

Even Fox is in retreat.    I didn't hear much comment at all about the recent SCOTUS decisions.  Almost like they ignored them.

Must be hoping for JEB.  Appease appease appease while the LEFT keeps moving forward with their shoulders in driving us back with zero thoughts of retreat.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 01, 2015, 09:06:21 AM
"People will do anything to remain politically correct, even if it means losing their rear end... "

The internet has really been a boom for the Left.   With immediate excoriating, shaming, marginalizing, and ridiculing of anyone who opposes their world view.  .
It seems to work.  Who wants their face going around the world being shamed

Couldn't have come at a worse time for America.

The Right cannot compete.  Just can't.

Even Fox is in retreat.    I didn't hear much comment at all about the recent SCOTUS decisions.  Almost like they ignored them.

Must be hoping for JEB.  Appease appease appease while the LEFT keeps moving forward with their shoulders in driving us back with zero thoughts of retreat.

Yes the internet helps them but helps us more in the sense that they have a monopoly on almost everything else.

The so-called news on conservative radio, separate from the shows, comes with all the bias of the regular networks - and it drives me nuts.  They need a Mark Levin type to hit pause after every idiocy and set them straight or at least present the other side with it.  Sometimes Fox News could use that too.

Chris Christy says we need more compromise.  Speaking of Mark Levin, I heard his reaction to Christy:  Compromise isn't a principle.  Compromise isn't a vision.  Compromise on what?  With whom?  Compromise is what we do now; it's what got us where we are.

The contradiction between how far left the left has gone / how left we have become, and the fact the Republicans have taken back the House, the Senate and the state houses is astounding.  Yet liberalism is still the driving and governing force.  Conservatism of a sort is starting to win again elsewhere around the globe as well.  As GM said, we are fcuked.  Either that or the table has almost never been set so perfectly for a real leader to emerge and persuasively make the case for a resurgence of freedom and prosperity. 

We are looking for something like a Reagan - without the Anthony Kennedy appointment!  If I were Marco Rubio or any of the others I would offer to put Ted Cruz on the Supreme Court. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 01, 2015, 10:01:21 AM
"Chris Christy says we need more compromise.  Speaking of Mark Levin, I heard his reaction to Christy:  Compromise isn't a principle.  Compromise isn't a vision.  Compromise on what?  With whom?  Compromise is what we do now; it's what got us where we are."

Exactly.  Christie totally misses the point.   So does Jeb.   AS we've noted for some time there simply is NO compromise from the left.  Every time we reach something called a compromise the very next day the libs are pushing for more.   There is no end.  Remember the end game is vanquish the world of religion, and country.  One world government with the central planners controlling everything.  THAT is their dream.  THEIR end game.  They will not cease till this is achieved - ever.

So I don't know what the pretend conservatives are talking about with compromise.

Someone who called into Levin's show last night  quoted Gen Patton as saying the way to win is to get the other side to compromise not for us to do it.

Most of the present Republicans are interested in these above points.  They just seem to want power and money.

Except for a few like Jeff Sessions and other real conservatives.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on July 01, 2015, 05:05:38 PM
I don't hope for a Right candidate, and certainly not a Left. Libertarian would be the way to go.... failing that, I'd hope for a right leaning Pol Pot type person.

Some would call that evil... I call it survival. Give them the choice to leave first.

People can take that how they want. In the end, it's a fact, whether people want to admit it or not.
Title: Joe Biden leaning towards running
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 02, 2015, 10:10:43 PM
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/1/joe-biden-likely-to-join-2016-white-house-race-nex/
Title: That's curious , , ,
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 04, 2015, 12:07:11 PM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/07/03/mitt-romney-hosting-two-rival-gop-presidential-contenders-for-holiday-sleepover/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Firewire&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%207-4-15%20FINAL
Title: Biden
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 06, 2015, 08:52:43 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/will-biden-be-obamas-candidate-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 08, 2015, 02:16:57 PM
Very interesting , , ,

Bernie Hogties Hillary
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on July 7, 2015
With Bernie Sanders creeping up on Hillary Clinton for the 2016 presidential nomination -- closing to within 8 points in New Hampshire and holding her to 52 percent in Iowa -- the new and unanticipated threat he poses presents an important challenge to the former secretary of State. Unfortunately for her, she has no good choices.

Her current strategy of ignoring Sanders has failed abysmally. While she has been hiding from the media and avoiding questions about her emails, Sidney Blumenthal and Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation and her speaking fees, the Vermont senator has been catalyzing the left base with bold proposals. His advocacy of a reduced retirement age, a confiscatory top bracket on the income tax, a single-payer socialized medicine system and a $15 minimum wage, as well as opposition to free trade, have all generated an enthusiasm among liberals that has totally stolen the thunder of the first serious chance at a female president.

The humble act has failed. Clinton's listening tour has accomplished nothing. Carrying her own baggage, flying coach and driving to Iowa are all being dismissed as the gimmicks they are.

So how can Hillary Clinton counter the rise of Bernie Sanders?

She can't attack him without giving him more credibility than he has. All hope of dismissing him as an also-ran would evaporate when she mentions his name. Indeed, the more he appears as a harmless protest vote against the party establishment in general and the Clintons in particular, the easier it is to back him in the primary.

She can't attack his issue positions without alienating a big part of her base. Sanders, even without much polling, has identified new hot buttons to elicit a strong response from liberals. She doesn't dare oppose this new agenda for the left. She can move to the center once she has the nomination in hand, but not now.

Nor can she attack Sanders personally or go after his record. First, many liberals support him when he has strayed to the left, and second, she cannot give him the legitimacy of criticizing him. Personal attacks, such as on his sexual fantasies and writings of 40 years ago, look strained and artificial and like the product of an overly active negative researcher.

Her most likely approach is to say that Sanders can't win, raising fears among Democrats that he might steal the party's chances for victory. Just as the Clintons and the Kennedys torpedoed Howard Dean's candidacy in 2004 after he surged in the wake of his approval of a gay marriage bill in Vermont, so Hillary's people will warn of disaster if Bernie is nominated.

In a sense, Clinton will abandon the strategy of ignoring Sanders and try to fast-forward the campaign to a Sanders victory, warning of the consequences -- just as the Clintons did with Dean.

The problem is, Clinton can't know how the rebound off Sanders would carom. In a simple two-way zero-sum race between the two, his negatives are her positives. Perhaps her other opponents for the nomination, like former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, might be able to capitalize, however.

But what could paralyze Clinton is the prospect of Joe Biden entering the race. If the vice president makes it a three-way contest, her shots at Sanders will likely push votes to Biden. If the rap is Sanders can't win, what is the logic that says doubts about his electability will cause voters who once supported Clinton and have since abandoned her to move back to her? If Sanders can't win because he's too liberal, what makes anyone feel that Clinton can overcome her various scandals, particularly voters who themselves have dropped her precisely because of those scandals?

Clinton is stuck. And the more she appears to be stuck in the dilemma of how to handle Sanders, the greater is the likelihood that Biden jumps in.

If Biden does run, how does Clinton attack him without pulling President Obama into the debate as collateral damage? How can she go after the vice president without her attacks reflecting ill on the sitting and, among Democrats, wildly popular president?

Clinton's in a tough spot.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on July 08, 2015, 05:12:40 PM
Nice to see the dems finally embrace their socialist core.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 08, 2015, 09:37:09 PM
"His advocacy (Bernie Sanders) (and hers, Hillary Clinton) of a reduced retirement age, a confiscatory top bracket on the income tax, a single-payer socialized medicine system and a $15 minimum wage,... have all generated an enthusiasm among liberals..."

Speaking of 'why not socialism', isn't that exactly what Greece has done?

almost 75 percent of Greek pensioners retire before the age of 61.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/03/retirement-at-45-and-8-other-simple-reasons-greece-is-imploding-right-now/

46% income tax + 15% social security + 23% VAT + 26% corporate, capital gains taxed as ordinary income!
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/corporate-tax-rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/greece/personal-income-tax-rate
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/070615-760392-tax-evasion-high-in-greece-due-to-high-taxes.htm

Public health services are provided by the National Healthcare Service
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_health_coverage_by_country
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on July 08, 2015, 09:41:24 PM
Public healthcare brings the same level of cleanliness and safety as public bathrooms and public housing. At twice the price.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 12, 2015, 11:41:30 PM
Morris may be right about Biden.  Why wouldn't he jump in?  Losing a son is a good reason for getting in late.  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/13/us/politics/still-reeling-from-sons-death-joe-biden-weighs-his-political-future.html?_r=0  
With the backing of the Obama machine (against the Clinton machine), this thing gets weird and ugly.  
And the Dem nominee becomes my prediction, none of the above.

Is Elizabeth Warren really smart enough to know she isn't Presidential?  Wouldn't she be Valerie Jarrett's first choice?  in that scenario, the Obama machine would be backing neither Hillary nor Biden...

A point of trivia, the family name Hickenlooper has won statewide elections in Iowa 17 times:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bourke_B._Hickenlooper
Both sides need swing state Colorado to win.
Colo Gov John Hickenlooper is showing no signs of warming up in the bullpen.  But don't rule him out.

Jim Webb:  http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/12/jim-webb-dems-have-moved-way-far-to-the-left-thats-not-my-democratic-party/

Both Clintons ordered to give depositions regarding email server:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/10/bill-and-hillary-clinton-ordered-give-depositions-/

Trump helps R's by making others look sane.  Hurts by showing how many identify with his message and tone.  Destroys the party by running as an independent.  There needs to be a contract that you don't take up a valuable place on the debate stage for the nonination and then run outside of the nomination
Title: Morris: Biden could get 50% of Dem vote in primaries.
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 15, 2015, 02:52:57 PM
Poll: Biden Could Get 56% Of Dem Primary Vote Against Hillary

By DICK MORRIS

Published on DickMorris.com on July 15, 2015

A July 9th national poll by Monmouth University shows that 56% of Democratic primary
voters would be "very" or "somewhat" likely to "consider supporting Biden for the
nomination over your current choice" if he enters the race.
 
The survey first asked voters for whom they would vote if the primary were held now.
 Hillary led the field, although barely eked out a majority:
 
•  Hillary   =  51%
•  Sanders   =  17%
•  Biden     =  13%
•  Webb      =   1%
•  O'Malley  =   1%
•  Undecided =  17%
 
Then, they asked the votes who were not voting for Biden (87% of the sample) "Joe
Biden has not yet indicated whether he intends to run.  If Biden does get into the
race, how likely would you be to consider supporting him for the nomination over
your current choice?"  The results are a real boost to Biden's chances:
 
•  Already for Biden          =  13%
•  Very likely to switch      =  12%
•  Somewhat likely to switch  =  31%
•  Not too likely             =  19%
•  Not at all likely          =  19%
•  Undecided                  =   6%
 
When you drill down, Hillary's unshakeable base in the Democratic Primary is only
38% (those who said it was not likely that they would switch).
 
Hillary's weakness is apparent when one notes that 49% of the voters in the initial
poll chose to be undecided or to vote for another candidate.
 
The myth of her invincibility is being shattered.
Title: Cruz and Trump siiting in a tree , , ,
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 15, 2015, 05:10:00 PM
http://www.tpnn.com/2015/07/15/cruz-and-the-donald-to-meet-in-nyc/
Title: Re: Cruz and Trump siiting in a tree , , ,
Post by: G M on July 15, 2015, 05:42:21 PM
http://www.tpnn.com/2015/07/15/cruz-and-the-donald-to-meet-in-nyc/

When the Donald tires of playing candidate, Cruz can step in.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 16, 2015, 03:00:07 PM
http://m.weeklystandard.com/blogs/trump-ghost-ross-perot_991539.html?nopager=1
Title: Wall Street loves Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 22, 2015, 10:50:08 AM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/07/21/i-was-not-expecting-that-see-how-millennials-react-when-they-learn-who-gets-most-wall-street-cash/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Firewire&utm_campaign=FireWire%20-%20HORIZON%207-22-15%20FINAL
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 23, 2015, 03:28:14 PM
http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-doesnt-condemn-questioners-apartheid-slur-against-israel/
Title: How far will Hillary fall?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 29, 2015, 11:51:16 AM
How Far Will Hillary Fall?
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on July 28, 2015
As Hillary Clinton's favorability drops week after week in the polls -- it's down to 43 percent -- the real question is: Will she start losing the support of those who are the core of President Obama's electoral strength?

In every poll of Obama's favorability or job rating, his positive numbers have never fallen below 39 percent. This is because his coalition of African-Americans, Hispanics, students, single mothers, gays and union people stand by him.

Regardless of events, reversals or failing conditions, the president never loses their support. His favorability is measured on a scale, not 1 to 100 but rather 40 to 100. Those first 40 points are like a golf handicap for our president.
 
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George W. Bush, by contrast, had no such safety net as president. When the Iraq War and then the economy fell apart, his approval rating fell to 27 percent near the end of his second term.

So, as Clinton's ratings drop, will she fall through the 40 percent safety net Obama has used to bolster his numbers? Phrased differently, will the Obama coalition stand by Clinton or abandon her as times turn tough?

This is, of course, the question on which the whole 2016 presidential election hinges.

The Obama base seems to be suspending judgment. Gallup polling shows a 7 percentage-point drop in Clinton's favorability rating since early May. She dropped from 50 percent to 43 percent in that timespan. But her unfavorable rating remained flat at 46 percent. No increase there. So the Americans in those 7 points moved from being Clinton fans to being undecided about her.

The initial indications are that Clinton cannot count on the loyalty of the Obama base and that the 40 percent threshold will not be a firewall for her candidacy.

While her overall favorability is not yet low enough to test the firewall, her ratings for being honest or trustworthy indicate that she can, indeed, drop below 40 percent without being rescued by the Obama base.

When Quinnipiac pollsters asked whether Clinton is "honest and trustworthy," only 33 percent of Iowa voters said she was. In Colorado 34 percent saw her as honest and trustworthy and in Virginia 39 percent. So, at least as far as integrity is concerned, the firewall is not holding.

Those who today say she is neither honest nor trustworthy but are undecided about their overall opinion of her are likely to come down on the negative side within a few months.

As the debates near, the impact of Clinton's diminishing popularity among Democrats will become clearer. When liberals see Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) live and in the flesh, embracing their programmatic fantasies -- a $15 minimum wage, a lower retirement age, a 90 percent top tax bracket, a single-payer healthcare system -- there will be no residual affection for Clinton to hold them back.

Democrats are likely to go through a process: First they won't trust Clinton, then they won't like her, then they will be undecided, and finally they will end up backing Sanders or one of her other rivals.

If the Obama firewall won't hold for Clinton, look for her to fall even further behind in head-to-head match-ups with Republican candidates.

Already, tracking polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia show her trailing the likes of GOP candidates Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. When she starts losing these swing states by double digits and begins to fall behind in national polling, the Democrats will get the clear message that Clinton can't win.

Their discontent will stimulate others to join the race. Vice President Biden will look at entering. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.) may come in. Or Sanders could begin to beat Clinton in key states.

It is all unraveling for Clinton. So, will the Obama safety net hold? If it doesn't, we will have a Republican president.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 29, 2015, 12:03:15 PM
"It is all unraveling for Clinton. So, will the Obama safety net hold? If it doesn't, we will have a Republican president"

Take it from Dick.   And Romney was a great President too....  as predicted.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 29, 2015, 04:34:41 PM
"It is all unraveling for Clinton. So, will the Obama safety net hold? If it doesn't, we will have a Republican president"

Take it from Dick.   And Romney was a great President too....  as predicted.

The right was wrong on that one and the demographic deck keeps getting stacked more steeply against us.  Still, for a major, leading candidate to drop from 50 to 43 in a short time based on factors that aren't going away is significant.  She also dropped to trailing key Republicans in swing states in polls.  Of course it's early and polls are flawed, but ths is not a good sign for her.

I am more worried about losing to some Democrat than losing to Hillary specifically.  They are name dropping not just Warren and Biden, but also Gore and now Kerry.  It's not too late for any of them because a shorter campaign means more excitement and less scrutiny.

We need to fight back against the governing philosophy common to all of them, not just watch and hope Hillary implodes.

Disclosure: Like Morris,  I was wrong with my last prediction and owe 1 dinner so far...
Title: 2016 Presidential, Ramesh Ponnuru, National Review on Lee-Rubio Tax Plan
Post by: DougMacG on July 29, 2015, 04:51:16 PM
A very different take than we have heard on this from WSJ etc.  "... it pursues supply-side goals on investment taxation too avidly".  That was my thought as well.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/421446/lee-rubio-tax-plan-conservative-analysis?target=author&tid=1843

Evaluating the Lee-Rubio Tax Plan Lee and Rubio on Capitol Hill. SHARE ARTICLE ON FACEBOOKSHARE   TWEET ARTICLETWEET   PLUS ONE ARTICLE ON GOOGLE PLUS+1   PRINT ARTICLE   EMAIL ARTICLE   ADJUST FONT SIZEAA by RAMESH PONNURU   July 22, 2015 4:00 AM @RAMESHPONNURU From the July 6, 2015, issue of NR   

Of the top three candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, judging from the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, only one has released a detailed tax plan: Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida. Not surprisingly, then, his proposal — made along with Senator Mike Lee of Utah, who proposed an earlier version of it on his own — has become the focus of the party’s tax debate.

When New Jersey governor Chris Christie, currently in eighth place in that average, outlined his own plan, the editors of the Wall Street Journal praised it by saying it was better than Rubio’s. Stephen Moore, writing in favor of a flat tax in The Weekly Stan­dard, included an aside blasting the Rubio plan. This could be a useful debate for conservatives — if it is conducted on accurate premises. Judging from the press coverage, so far it has not been. The real flaws of the Lee-Rubio proposal are being obscured by misguided criticisms.

The Los Angeles Times, for example, reports that Rubio is trying to alter “party orthodoxy” on taxes by moving away from cutting the top income-tax rate: “Rubio’s plan tests whether Re­pub­lican primary voters are willing to go beyond that supply-side view.” Po­li­ti­co claims that Rubio is “running on a tax plan that tosses out decades of GOP allegiance to the idea of simply slashing rates across the board and expecting faster economic growth to follow.”

Such descriptions may hurt Rubio by making him look out of step with his party, or help him by making him look fresh and new. But they are false. Re­pub­li­can tax policy has never been purely about supply-side tax-rate cuts to spur economic growth. Especially when it has been politically successful — when it has actually changed tax policy — the GOP has combined supply-side tax-rate cuts with tax relief that puts money in middle-class families’ pockets. Rubio’s plan is squarely within that tradition.

 Supply-side economics has often been criticized, unfairly, as a cover for plutocratic interests. That’s because a particular concern for the tax rate paid by the very highest earners is built into its logic. They pay the highest, and therefore the most distortionary, rate. They are the ones who are most responsive to changes in their incentives to work, save, and invest. The real flaws of the Lee-Rubio proposal are being obscured by misguided criticisms.

And there’s another feature of a progressive income tax that requires a little unpacking: The top rate is the only one that acts as a marginal tax rate on every person who pays it. Let’s say you cut only the 15 percent tax rate that applies to married couples making between $18,000 and $74,000 in taxable income. Making it 10 percent would improve those couples’ incentives to work: Now instead of keeping 85 cents of every extra dollar they earn from the IRS, they would keep 90 cents, an increase of about 6 percent. But every couple that makes more than $74,000 would get the benefit of that tax cut, too, pocketing an extra $2,800 — and their incentives to earn would not have changed at all, because all of their earnings above that threshold would continue to be taxed at the same rates as before. That’s fine if the goal is to let people keep more of their money. But if the goal is to maximize the effect of a tax cut on incentives — if the tax cut is to be judged, that is, on supply-side terms — then the top rate is the one that most needs lowering.

All of this helps to explain why, when he evaluated the Reagan tax cuts in his book The Growth Experiment, Lawrence Lindsey concluded that the reduction of the highest income-tax rate — it went from 70 percent at the start of Reagan’s term to 28 percent at the end of it — had resulted in additional revenue, but the reduction of low-end tax rates had lost revenue. It’s why some supply-siders groused that George W. Bush’s reduction of the lowest tax rate was a waste of money. And it’s a large part of the reason that many supply-siders are enthusiastic about flat-tax proposals that would bring the top tax rate down a lot while raising the lower tax rates.

But Republican presidential nominees have never run on such proposals. They have never taken the only goal of tax policy to be maximizing economic growth while yielding a targeted level of revenues. Reagan could have offered a tax cut as large as the one he did while cutting the top rate much more, if he had left the lower tax rates alone and let bracket creep (whereby inflation pushed people into higher tax brackets) continue. But he wanted to cut middle-class taxes, he wanted a plan that could be enacted, and he wanted to be elected and reelected. So he offered across-the-board reductions in tax rates and an end to bracket creep. The

Republicans running for Con­gress in 1994 again offered middle-class tax relief in their Contract with America: Its major tax proposal was the creation of a $500 tax credit for children. In 1997 that proposal made it into law, paired with a capital-gains-tax cut. George W. Bush, running for president in 2000, also combined supply-side and middle-class tax cuts. He cut the capital-gains, dividend, and estate taxes and the top income-tax rate; he also cut most of the other income-tax rates and increased the tax credit for children to $1,000.

The Lee-Rubio plan, too, has supply-side elements. It eliminates the taxes on capital gains, dividends, and estates, and the alternative minimum tax. It cuts the top income-tax rate. It cuts the tax rate on business income and allows businesses to write off the expense of investments immediately. But it also has two major middle-class-friendly features: It expands the child credit, adding $2,500 to it and applying it against payroll taxes as well as income taxes. (The senators say the credit is necessary to correct for the way entitlements overtax parents, who contribute extra to the programs by raising children.) And it taxes a lot of income that now falls in the 25 percent bracket at 15 percent.

What isn’t new in the plan, then, is that it includes tax cuts other than tax-rate cuts, that it is not just a list of supply-side priorities, and that it expands the child credit. Politico noted that lowering the top tax rate from 39.6 to 35, as Lee-Rubio does, still leaves it “far higher than many Republicans would like.” That’s true, but it also leaves it in the ballpark of previous Republican proposals. It’s the rate George W. Bush and congressional Republicans enacted in 2001. We have had a top tax rate lower than 35 in only five of the last 80 years — and in those years, investment was taxed more heavily than it would be under Lee-Rubio. Re­pub­li­can tax policy has never been purely about supply-side tax-rate cuts to spur economic growth.

Some supply-siders argue that Lee-Rubio should have proposed bringing the top tax rate still lower, which would do more to improve incentives to work, save, and invest, and thus encourage growth. The Journal prefers Christie’s top rate of 28. But this lower rate would not be likely to have a large economic effect. First, we should expect diminishing returns. When Reagan cut the top rate from 70 to 50, the after-tax return on a dollar earned rose 67 percent. Cutting the top rate from 35 to 28 would raise it only 11 percent.

Second, Republicans have repeatedly overestimated the growth effects of income-tax rates — predicting a bust when Clinton raised taxes and a boom when George W. Bush lowered them. Neither occurred, and in fact growth rates were better under the higher Clinton income-tax rates than under the lower Bush ones. Any positive effect of lower tax rates on growth are small enough that other factors can overwhelm them.

Third, it’s not clear that getting the rate on high earners so far down is politically realistic. A tax package that combined some reduction in the top rate with tax cuts that directly benefitted the middle class would almost certainly stand a better chance of enactment. That is, after all, how such tax-rate reductions have been achieved before.

 Lee-Rubio does not break precedents, then, in its approach to the top tax rate. But other aspects of the plan are genuinely new. Over the last generation the payroll tax has become a bigger burden for the middle class than the income tax, but Republicans have generally left the payroll tax alone. Mitt Romney, for example, offered an across-the-board reduction in income-tax rates, but middle-class income-tax liability is too low for it to have helped people as much as previous proposals in that vein. Lee-Rubio reduces ­payroll-tax liabilities for many people. Lee-Rubio is also a bigger tax cut than most previous proposals: The Tax Foun­dation estimates that it would reduce federal revenues by $4 trillion over a decade unless it raised economic growth. Some Republican-primary candidates have run on zeroing out taxes on capital gains and dividends, but no nominee has. The proposed treatment of business is new, too, and reflects an increased concern about competition among countries for capital investment. And the child-credit proposal is also much larger than previous candidates have suggested.

Finally, Lee-Rubio raises taxes on some people. Single people making more than $75,000 and married people making more than $150,000 a year would pay a 35 percent tax rate on income above that amount. These are high earners: The Census Bureau reports that in 2013, the median income for married couples was $76,000. Many of these high earners are now in the 25, 28, and 33 percent brackets, so mar­gin­al tax rates would go up on them. A good many of them would, however, have lower total tax bills. Take a couple making $200,000 a year. The new rate structure in Lee-Rubio would leave them ahead: They would save more from the lower taxes on income between $75,000 and $150,000 than they would pay from the higher taxes on income above that level. They would come out even farther ahead if they had children.

Republican tax reforms have sometimes proposed raising tax rates and tax bills for some people. Most flat taxes, for example, would raise taxes on many more people (and on people with lower incomes) than Lee-Rubio would. Re­pub­li­can nominees, though, have usually avoided proposing tax increases on anyone.

We don’t yet know how the plan will play in the 2016 elections. Most Republican-primary voters have not been supply-side purists, which is why nominees have not been either. Voters might find the $4 trillion impact on revenues too large. And the combination of raising taxes on some affluent households while also nearly eliminating income-tax bills for wealthy people who derive most of their income from investments seems politically problematic, to say the least. Proposing to end the capital-gains tax, as opposed to cut it, was unwise: If it was meant to buy supply-side support for the plan, it has not worked. (The Journal hardly mentions that feature of the plan when it de­nounces it.)

The problem with Lee-Rubio, in other words, isn’t that it breaks with the Republican party’s supply-side traditions; it doesn’t. The problems are that it pursues supply-side goals on investment taxation too avidly, and that it’s too large. Put the plan on a diet and both problems are solved.
 — Ramesh Ponnuru is a senior editor of National Review.
Title: But he loses to Hillary by 12 points , , ,
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 30, 2015, 12:18:11 PM
http://reviveusa.com/shock-poll-trump-leads-bush-in-florida/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 30, 2015, 01:10:11 PM
So say Jeb could beat Hillary.  What have we won?  I say not much.
What's the point.  His father was great with Iraq with the caveat that he established a serious precedent of turning over our sovereignty to the court of public opinion on at least  war decisions.  His brother was great with 911.   But otherwise not much else.  Bushes are not able to reset conservative values.   I don't hear Jeb saying anything that is impressive, convincing, or even motivating that is not just  status quo, appeasing, compromising, in and bed with the lobbyists speak.
 
Jeb is Hillary lite IMHO.

I will stay home if it is him or someone like him.

Even Christie has my ear and has sounded better!   I might even be able to give HIM another chance.   :-o  But no more Bushes.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 31, 2015, 07:00:19 AM
So say Jeb could beat Hillary.  What have we won?  I say not much.
What's the point.  His father was great with Iraq with the caveat that he established a serious precedent of turning over our sovereignty to the court of public opinion on at least  war decisions.  His brother was great with 911.   But otherwise not much else.  Bushes are not able to reset conservative values.   I don't hear Jeb saying anything that is impressive, convincing, or even motivating that is not just  status quo, appeasing, compromising, in and bed with the lobbyists speak.
 
Jeb is Hillary lite IMHO.
I will stay home if it is him or someone like him.
Even Christie has my ear and has sounded better!   I might even be able to give HIM another chance.   :-o  But no more Bushes.

Let's say it somehow shakes out that it is not Trump or Bush.  What do we have left?  Top tier left is Walker, Rubio, Cruz.  Second tier who might move up: Kasich, Fiorina.  I would argue that all are good choices.  Of them, I think Rubio and Fiorina might be the most electable, Cruz  the most pure in his stances, and Governors Kasich and Walker having the closest executive experience for the job.

I think the unsettled side is with the Dems.  Republican candidates are all announced and known.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Republican Field, Stephen Hayse
Post by: DougMacG on July 31, 2015, 07:10:35 AM
One question of each candidate;

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/crowded-field-dreams_996630.html#  (more at the link)

At the center of each candidacy lies a fundamental question, the answer to which will determine whether the candidate becomes the Republican nominee. Some of those questions are philosophical, some of them political. With all 16 candidates formally in the race as of last week, and with the first debate just two weeks away, here is a look at the field and those questions.

For nearly half of the candidates, the fundamental question is the simplest one in politics: Am I viable?

This is the question now facing Jindal, Santorum, Fiorina, Graham, and even Perry. The top 10 candidates will be invited to the Fox News debate in Cleveland on August 6. At press time, none of these candidates would qualify on the basis of the Real Clear Politics average of national polls. If you’re not in the debates, you have no shot.

Mike Huckabee and Ben Carson will both make the debates, but they face the same question. Huckabee is a good communicator, but he appeals largely to social conservatives, and his only hope is a strong showing in Iowa, where he’s currently running sixth. Carson has a strong grassroots following, and his early-state supporters seem more committed to their candidate than are the early backers of other candidates. His challenge is to expand his appeal beyond that core group.

Kasich: Will primary voters rally to a candidate arguing that the good Lord wants him to expand government?

Kasich, the governor of Ohio, entered the race with a 45-minute extemporaneous speech that served as a strong reminder of the importance of speechwriters. More than once, Kasich seemed to end up in a rhetorical cul de sac, pausing momentarily to wonder how he’d gotten there before abruptly heading out in a new direction.

There is an authenticity about Kasich that could well be appealing, particularly in a state like New Hampshire, where voters are often open to quirky Republicans. And if government experience were the most important qualification for the presidency, Kasich, with 18 years in the House of Representatives before his two terms as Ohio governor, would be the Republican nominee.

But Kasich, who portrays himself as a budget hawk, chose to expand Medicaid under Obamacare, arguing that anyone who decided otherwise would be disappointing God. “When you die and get to the meeting with St. Peter, he’s probably not going to ask you much about what you did about keeping government small,” Kasich told  an Ohio lawmaker skeptical of his expansion. “But he is going to ask you what you did for the poor. You better have a good answer.”

It’s an argument without a limiting principle that could be used to justify any expansion of government. And Kasich’s Medicaid expansion is already over budget—some $1.4 billion over budget in just 18 months.

Christie: Will voters, and donors, give him a second look?

Four years ago, with Mitt Romney the odds-on favorite in the Republican primary, a group of six influential Iowa Republicans flew to New Jersey to implore Chris Christie to consider a presidential run. He declined. Christie is running this time, and none of those six men is supporting him. In the RCP average of polls, Christie registers a paltry 2.8 percent.

There are several explanations for this. Being governor of New Jersey means extra attention in the media capital of the world, particularly from the broadcast networks. That’s an advantage, but also a liability, as Christie discovered during the “Bridgegate” scandal in 2013. The story received widespread coverage on television and in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, newspapers with national readership. The governor of Oregon, forced to resign amid scandal, didn’t receive a fraction of the coverage that Christie has on the bridge.

Beyond that, conservatives have grown increasingly skeptical of Christie for reasons both substantive and symbolic. Christie, like Kasich, opted to expand Medicaid in New Jersey, a deal with the devil that will inevitably mean vastly more state-level spending when the federal support for the expansion ends. Christie once proclaimed that failure to reform Medicaid and other entitlements put America “on the path to ruin.” And in 2012, he said: “Obamacare on Medicaid to the states was extortion.” But facing reelection in a blue state in 2013, Christie agreed to the expansion, and he now defends it as necessary. That would be a problem for anyone, but it presents a particular challenge for Christie, who is running as a “telling-it-like-it-is” candidate who will deliver the hard truths on entitlements.

But for many conservatives, it was Christie’s embrace of Obama in the days before the 2012 presidential election that left them skeptical. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, as Christie sought federal help for his battered state, he toured the coast with Obama and offered praise for the president. It was a brief moment of little actual consequence, but for many conservative voters, it is an enduring memory.

Cruz: Can the mad-as-hell conservative base be converted to mad-as-hell supporters of Ted Cruz?

Cruz has money and arguably the clearest, most consistent message in the entire field: He’s had it with Washington, he’s had it with the Democrats who have expanded government, and he’s especially had it with the Republicans who have enabled them. The good news for Cruz is that large parts of the American electorate agree with him; the bad news is that they’re not yet prepared to make him their spokesman. Cruz, at 5.4 percent in the RCP average, correctly understands that Trump is occupying space that he’s fought for several years to own. And he correctly understands that Trump is only renting that real estate, so he’s been very friendly to Trump in the hopes of staking a claim to it when Trump is evicted.

But there’s a risk to this approach. If Cruz is seen as too close to him, Trump’s inevitable collapse, spectacular as it is likely to be, could damage Cruz, too.

Paul: Is the novelty wearing off?

For years, Rand Paul has attracted attention by being a different kind of Republican. He challenged the hawks who dominate the party and campaigned in places Republicans have ignored for too long. Time magazine dubbed him the “most interesting man in American politics.”

Are Republicans losing interest? Paul is at 5.6 percent in the RCP polling average, and his second-quarter fundraising totals were well below what many observers had expected.

Paul has inexplicably focused on issues where his libertarianism is out of step with the Republican base (national security and civil liberties) and spent less time on those where his party is naturally more libertarian (taxes, regulation, health care). Last week, Paul released a video in which he destroys the U.S. tax code in a variety of ways—chainsaw, bonfire, woodchipper. Perhaps the video is an attempt at a course correction, but it feels like desperation.

His anti-interventionism played better as a theory than it has in real life, with Barack Obama as its chief practitioner accumulating failures around the globe. So Paul has sounded less dovish in recent days, reversing his onetime embrace of Obama’s Iran deal and even suggesting last week that military force might be required if the mullahs move toward nuclear weapons. The irony is that, as Paul has tailored his idiosyncratic views to appeal to a more conventional conserv-ative electorate, he has begun to look more and more like the traditional politicians he deplores.

Bush: Is Jeb Bush the strong conservative reformer he was as governor of Florida or the more cautious and moderate Republican he has been over the past few years? During a brief press availability at St. Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire, on April 17, a reporter asked Jeb Bush whether he was comfortable with the growing perception of him as a “moderate” Republican. “No, look, I have a conservative record,” Bush replied, adding, in case there were any doubt, that he considers himself an “I’m-not-kidding conservative.” The coda: “Perhaps moderate in tone is misinterpreted to moderate in terms of core beliefs.”

And yet Bush has been vocal about his concern that the Republican party has become too conservative in recent years. He worried that Ronald Reagan wouldn’t have a place in the modern GOP. He famously said Republicans must be willing to “lose the primary to win the general,” a declaration that he wouldn’t allow himself to be pulled to the right in order to win the nomination. It was a lesson he learned from the 2012 Republican primary. He later described his feelings this way: “I used to be a conservative, and I watch these debates and I’m wondering, I don’t think I’ve changed but it’s a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people’s fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective. And that’s kind of where we are.” Beyond that, Bush backs comprehensive immigration reform—he says illegal immigration is often an “act of love”—and he remains an unwavering supporter of Common Core, the education standards loathed by many conservatives.

But the fact that many primary voters see him through the prism of Common Core and immigration could allow him to surprise in the debate. Conservatives who assume that Bush is moderate across the board might well be more open to supporting him when they learn he is not.

The other big question, of course, is his name. Even if voters warm to Bush over the course of the fall campaign, will they be willing to embrace the dynasty and throw out what will likely be at the heart of the Republican case against Hillary Clinton if she’s the Democratic nominee—that she’s a relic of a bygone era, a professional politician by marriage, with stale ideas and who doesn’t understand the lives of everyday Americans?

Rubio: Will voters see him as the Republican Obama?

Five years ago, when Rubio was running for Senate, many of those who saw him on the trail compared him to Barack Obama. At the time, it was the highest compliment they could imagine. But six years into the Obama administration, and in the context of a Republican primary, it’s not a compliment but a critique.

The similarities are obvious. Rubio, like Obama, is a great communicator, would come to the presidency with relatively limited experience, and would take office as a young man by historical standards. Rubio skeptics say: We’ve done this with Obama, and look how that turned out. But that assessment assumes that the problem with Obama was his lack of experience or relative youth. It wasn’t. As Rubio is fond of pointing out, Obama is a failed president because “his ideas don’t work.”

Rubio’s team pushes back hard on suggestions he’s like Obama, pointing to his experience as speaker of the Florida house and contrasting it with Obama’s unremarkable tenure as a state senator in Illinois. And they point out that Rubio will have had two more years of experience on national security, with seats on the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees, than Obama did when he took office.

But the smartest move for Rubio might be to embrace the comparison, rather than reject it. If Rubio can convince people that he would do as much to limit government as Obama has done to expand it, he will have a winning argument.

Walker: Will voters view Walker as a battle-tested, reform-driven governor with a string of electoral and policy victories, or will the changes he’s made, in tone and sometimes in substance, erode the reputation he built during his tenure in Wisconsin?

Walker ran for governor in 2010 on a pledge to create 250,000 jobs and balance the budget. He didn’t accomplish the former but did, after a nasty and exhausting fight, implement reforms that allowed him to achieve the latter. So the $3.6 billion deficit that Walker inherited was eliminated. He has cut taxes, reformed state welfare programs, and won election three times in a purple state.

But since floating his name as a potential candidate last winter, Walker has equivocated on several issues. Walker had been for comprehensive immigration reform, but now opposes such reform as “amnesty” and is open to greater restrictions even on legal immigration to protect American workers. He once opposed renewable fuel subsidies but now prefers a gradual phaseout. In his 2014 reelection campaign, he ran an ad in which he declared that he was pro-life but said the “final decision” is between “a woman and her doctor.”

Asked in a recent interview about these changes in position, or at least in tone, Walker told The Weekly Standard: “It’s totally overblown. The only position I’ve changed on is my position on immigration, which was a pretty limited position as a governor to begin with. There are a lot of people covering this race who don’t get how people have to talk in a state that’s as swing a state as we are. And talking in a way that doesn’t alienate people doesn’t equate to flipping positions. It means articulating it in a way that maybe isn’t the same red meat that they’ve heard from conservatives in Washington.”

But enthusiasm for Walker’s grit—demonstrated in his fight against public-sector unions and Democratic special interests during a failed recall attempt—remains. And many Republicans are in the mood for a fighter—or, as Walker prefers, a “fighter who can win” on “commonsense conservative reforms.”

But these days, GOP primary voters are behaving as if they would settle for a fighter who has no chance of winning, no common sense, and isn’t a conservative. Which brings us back to Donald Trump.

Trump is without question a fighter. He seems to spend much of his day fighting with his Republican rivals, mainstream journalists, high-profile pollsters—anyone, really, who has said anything negative about him.

But before his recent conversion, the views he expressed over the years would make him a mainstream Democrat. This is the great irony of the current moment in American political life: The man leading the primary of a party whose recent success owes largely to a shift rightward has never really been a Republican.

Trump described himself as “very liberal on health care” and was an advocate of a single-payer health insurance system, a view that puts him to the left of Barack Obama. He long considered himself “very pro-choice” and was in favor of drug legalization. Trump once called Mitt Romney’s self-deportation proposal “crazy” and “maniacal.” Trump said Obama’s $787 billion stimulus was “what we need” and added, “It looks like we have somebody that knows what he is doing finally in office.”

As those comments suggest, Trump didn’t think George W. Bush did a very good job in office. But he didn’t stop there. Trump said Bush was “evil.”

Trump’s financial support for Democrats over the years has been well documented, with checks to Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid, Hillary Clinton, and others. That’s no surprise, since he said in 2004, “I identify more as a Democrat.” He praised Nancy Pelosi as “the best” when she became speaker of the House in 2007. That same year, he said of a prospective Hillary Clinton in the White House: “I think Hillary would do a good job.”

To put it mildly, Trump is an uncomfortable fit in the Republican party. And that’s why he is unlikely to be there at the end of this process.

That doesn’t mean he won’t run for president. Trump’s political activism has its roots in the Reform party movement of the late 1990s. He flirted with a presidential bid in 1999 on the Reform party ticket. He has in recent days repeatedly declared his openness to running as an independent candidate in 2016. Last week, he told the Hill that “so many people want” him to run as an independent if he doesn’t win the GOP nod and acknowledged that revenge could play a role if he loses. “Absolutely, if they’re not fair, that could be a factor.”

If he does run, all of the strategizing, planning, and campaigning that those mentioned above are currently engaged in could well be for nothing. With an evenly divided electorate and an angry conservative base, if Trump runs as a third-party, right-wing populist he could well siphon off enough votes to make Hillary Clinton the next president.

On the other hand, perhaps Trump won’t run. And, given her current troubles, with polls showing more Americans disapproving than approving of her, Hillary seems increasingly not a terribly formidable candidate. She seems eminently beatable. But which Republican can win the nomination and defeat her?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2015, 11:47:29 PM
Joe Biden is said to be taking new look at presidential run

Saturday, August 1, 2015 2:55 PM EDT

Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and his associates have begun to actively explore a possible presidential campaign, an entry that would upend the Democratic field and deliver a direct threat to Hillary Rodham Clinton, say several people who have spoken to Mr. Biden or his closest advisers.
Mr. Biden’s advisers have started to reach out to Democratic leaders and donors who have not yet committed to Mrs. Clinton or who have grown concerned about what they see as her increasingly visible vulnerabilities as a candidate.
The conversations, often fielded by Mr. Biden’s chief of staff, Steve Ricchetti, have taken place in hushed phone calls and over quiet lunches. In most cases they have grown out of an outpouring of sympathy for the vice president since the death of his 46-year-old son, Beau, in May.
Title: Trump and Cruz team up against Planned Parenthood
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 04, 2015, 05:45:48 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/04/trump-and-cruz-partner-to-strip-planned-parenthoods-funding/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 05, 2015, 09:53:39 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/will-hillary-be-indicted-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: 57% of the people are persuadable for R's. Romney's 47% was off by 10%.
Post by: DougMacG on August 06, 2015, 06:20:20 AM
Interestingly, the number 57% keeps coming up.  At this point where we have fully gotten to know Hillary, 57% don't trust her.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/17/politics/poll-2016-elections-hillary-clinton-trustworthy/
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/01/2016.poll.pdf
"42% of Americans consider her honest and trustworthy, while 57% don't."

Of course she isn't honest, so that means 42% believe the ends justify the means and 57% are willing to tell a pollster what is obvious in front of them.

Switching over to Iran, 57% think Obama is wrong on Iran:

http://www.jns.org/news-briefs/2015/4/24/poll-57-of-americans-disapprove-of-obamas-policies-on-iran#.VcNWavlViko=
http://unitedwithisrael.org/poll-57-of-americans-disapprove-of-obamas-iran-policies/
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/29/fox-news-poll-obama-not-tough-enough-on-iran/
"Poll: 57% of Americans disapprove of Obama’s policies on Iran, Only 2 percent said Obama is “being too tough” with Iran. Sixty-five percent said they believe Iran poses a real threat to national security."

The trustworthiness of the candidates and the popularity of the incumbent and his policies are crucial determinants of how this election will go.  Since Hillary is unlikely to be the nominee, the second number of people questioning the President on foreign policy and national security is even more important.  One party is going all out to appease the world's number one sponsor of terror.  The other is not.  And a good majority of the American seem to be aware of it.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/28/politics/obama-approval-iran-economy/
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/03/approval-for-obamas-iran-deal-craters-in-the-polls/
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/03/poll-americans-oppose-obamas-iran-deal-2-to-1/

I'm not saying the election is over.  I'm saying there are enough people out there who could be receptive to the right candidate with the right message.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, First Republican debate tonight
Post by: DougMacG on August 06, 2015, 06:42:17 AM
Any predictions?

The story line coming in is that this is Donald Trump and the other nine.  Expect Trump to be better, more ready and more knowledgeable than most people expect.  The other nine need to ignore him in this format and put out their own best performance.  If you mention a candidate's name they get an automatic 30 seconds extra to respond.  If people keep challenging him, it will be all about him, especially the news story coming out of it.  In that sense, this is not a debate, just a question and answer session.

The media is looking for is gaffes.  I don't expect any, but who knows.

Each candidate is looking for the opportunity to say something memorable that will be the story.  We'll see about that, but they will be looking for their own best excerpts to make ads and campaign videos.

Candidates like Rubio, Walker and others need to move from having good favorables to being first choice of a larger number of people.

The other event, so called consolation round, is important too.  People will be looking for who should move up and who should move down for future events.  I would like to see Carly move up and maybe Huckabee move down.  Whoever moves up will get a boost in publicity coming into the next debate.  Soon this will be a game of momentum. 

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 06, 2015, 09:58:33 AM
It would not surprise me if Carson surprises to the upside.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 06, 2015, 01:21:19 PM
"Any predictions?"

Yes Bobby Jindal will excite at 5 PM before the debate.   :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 07, 2015, 06:20:07 AM
Overall, I thought it was a well run debate with good questions and good to very good performances from most of the candidates.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 07, 2015, 09:22:31 AM
Overall, I thought it was a well run debate with good questions and good to very good performances from most of the candidates.

The questioners in the early debate were not good, putting negativity and liberal, msm bias into every question.

The main event moderators/questioners were strong, but took more than 30% of the time away from the participants.

Glenn Beck along with his radio sidekicks just picked Marco Rubio as the big winner last night, not for any one answer but for his total presentation.

Paul Mirengoff of Powerline also picked Rubio:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/08/ten-thoughts-about-tonights-debate.php

Interestingly, both had been ruthless toward Rubio over immigration in the past.  

If Republicans want to win this election they would put Rubio and Fiorina together on a ticket and take the message out to everyone.  And then somehow put forward a Obamacare replacement package led by Ben Carson.

Krauthammer and others picked Trump as the big loser:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/08/06/charles_krauthammer_declares_the_end_of_trump.html

Trump was Trump, but in a different format.  If you liked him before, I don't see why you would like him less now, maybe just that he can't unite the party and win. Those who openly fought each other last night probably all lost.

I listened on the radio, missed a little, and saw parts on video highlights.  It seemed that some didn't have many opportunities to shine.  

Jeb probably disappointed, was all convoluted over common core, one of his weaknesses.  Christy was making a valid point and then became a jerk with the blowing hot air comment.  Senate Intelligence committee meetings are important, if not glamorous.  Walker held his ground, didn't screw up or stand out.  Huckabee is good at this format, but wrong on some policy choices.  Cruz is great on substance.  The question on him to me is whether he brings people in or turns them away. Carson is still a wild card, probably not going to be President as this narrows down, but a great guy who needs to play an important role changing the country and the electorate.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 07, 2015, 01:06:18 PM
Trump was clearly set up with a hatchet job but he should have been better prepared.  It is no secret Ailles doesn't like him.  That first question was obviously designed for him and was a gift to the RNC perhaps for letting Fox have the debate.

I didn't think the participants had enough time to answer.   

Plus I thought the debate was presented too much in a circus format at least in the beginning and with ridiculous commercial honky-tonk fanfare.

I also question the wisdom of having an audience cheering or jeering for their favorite or least favorite candidates.

Plus Kelly's comments about them being nervous and glad its over and stuff like that should be left out.

My opinion (we all have one don't we):

Kasich and Bush were the Rinos we expected.   Rubio was good.   Carson was very good.

Christy was decent.   Paul is just not a likable person to me.  He is like the doctor who matter of factly tells you you have glaucoma with absolutely no compassion, warmth or sympathy. 

Huckabee was ok.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential- debate coverage continued, Rubio the winner?
Post by: DougMacG on August 09, 2015, 10:06:48 PM
Cherry picking my coverage...

The Federalist:  "Marco Rubio is likely the most gifted and well-positioned candidate in GOP field, and this debate only reinforces that belief."
http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/07/the-gop-debate-was-awesome-we-need-more-like-it/

Byron York:  Marco Rubio had the only truly standout performance in the prime time debate.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/byron-barone-winners-and-losers-of-gop-debate/article/2569797

Stephen Hayes, Weekly Standard:  Rubio wins the main event
Marco Rubio consistently gave strong and substantive answers that at times emphasized the compelling story of his family and at others demonstrated his depth of knowledge on the subject matter discussed. He told the audience that he would not be lectured by Hillary Clinton on the struggles of modern American families. “If I'm our nominee, how is Hillary Clinton going to lecture me about living paycheck to paycheck? I was raised paycheck to paycheck. How is she -- how is she going to lecture me -- how is she going to lecture me about student loans? I owed over $100,000 just four years ago.” If the debate had a winner, it was Rubio.
https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rubio-wins-main-event_1006625.html

Dan Pfeifer, CNN, Winner: Marco Rubio. On a night of very uneven performances, Rubio showed flashes of why Democrats fear him most.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/07/opinions/opinion-gop-debate-roundup/

Bloomberg:  Why Marco Rubio May Have Won the First Republican Debate
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-07/why-marco-rubio-may-have-won-the-first-republican-debate

Politico:  Marco Rubio steps out of Jeb’s shadow
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/marco-rubio-jeb-bush-2016-showdown-121172.html

CNBC:  No contest: Why Rubio is clear winner of debate
Rubio was polished, optimistic, strong on issues, from immigration to education to the economy
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/no-contest-why-rubio-is-clear-winner-of-debate.html

Besides all these positive reviews in mainstream and conservative publications, see also Glenn Beck and Powerline quoted in a previous post, both also very influential.  Pretty good publicity IMHO for a forty-something year old starting in 7th place.  The best path to the nomination and Presidency is to keep moving up slowly and steadily, not to jump off to a big lead for a brief moment. The best ticket right now is Rubio-Fiorina.  My two cents.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 10, 2015, 06:53:11 AM
Hi Doug,

Overall I LIKE Rubio Too.  He does have charisma.  He could be a good front man for the Right like Obama is for the Left. 
I am not sure how good he is with policy or political strategy.  We know all of Obama's strategy and policy has been set by people behind the scenes and been planned over decades.
 
Fiorina so far is very good.   Not sure her staying power.  But she clearly prepares well and can articulate well.

One thing I am very unhappy with was the debate format, the circus atmosphere, the fact that the commentators with of course the narcissistic Kelly making themselves part of the story.  This is NOT about them.

The debate was too much of a show akin to the competition show- biz programs like 'America's got talent', 'the Voice' and entertainment shows like those.

I feel this debases the political process and participants even more.   I am not against tough questions.  I do agree that these candidates need to be prepared to have all their negatives placed front and center .  If Fox doesn't do it we know the lefty media, Hollywood, and the DNC sure will.

The candidates need to be totally prepared for this.

But getting back to the debate - no problem with tough questions but a big problem with the debate for all the other reasons listed.

That said I doubt Fox network will care.  To them it is all about the show.  More reason for Americans to be cynical.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 10, 2015, 08:05:41 AM
ccp:  Agreed.  The moderators think the show is about them.  The future questioners from other networks will be worse with a few exceptions. 

It wasn't a debate except for a couple of sparring incidents; it was just series of very short interviews with candidates.

In my view, a candidate or political interview should be split about 50-50 worst case between confronting a candidate on a perceived shortcoming and letting the candidate give his or her vision of how things should be.

It doesn't have to be so clever or take up 31% of the candidate's limited time:

Iran poses a serious problem in the world. What would you do about it?

What is your view of what economic growth should be and how would you accomplish that?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 10, 2015, 10:36:28 AM
FWIW I thought the debate quite well done by the FOX team.  The pointed, aggro questions were good examples the sort of thing attack that the Dems will bring.  Best to see now who can handle it.

As my posts on the Carly thread have stated all along, I have found her quite interesting.  With the debate she has moved up further in my estimation.  I confess, given my initial gut reaction to her announcement of her candidacy, I am surprised to realize that I can imagine supporting her for the presidency.  The others currently in that category for me (and this is a VERY fluid thing) are Ben Carson and Ted Cruz.

Carly handles aggro questions VERY well (see e.g. the Chris Matthews interview I posted on her thread on Saturday) by reframing them without a hint of snarkiness and packs a tremendous amount of real content into her answers in a very concentrated way.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 11, 2015, 11:30:39 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/11/will-rick-perry-rand-paul-be-first-through-the-exits/
Title: WSJ: A Moderate Rep analysis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 12, 2015, 08:45:42 AM
After their first presidential debates, it is time for Republicans to get serious. Donald Trump won’t be their nominee. Neither will Ben Carson. Nor will any of the men in the 5 p.m. undercard event last week. Despite Carly Fiorina’s strong performance, it is hard to believe that the GOP would turn to someone who was fired as Hewlett-Packard ’s CEO in 2005 after a tenure charitably described as controversial, and whose only run for elective office resulted in a landslide loss in 2010 to Sen. Barbara Boxer in California.

There are only five candidates with a plausible path to the Republican nomination: two sitting senators ( Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz), two sitting governors ( Scott Walker and John Kasich), and a former governor ( Jeb Bush). They represent a choice among very different persons, but also—and more fundamentally—between competing strategies for the future of the Republican Party.

First, the candidates as individuals. Ted Cruz is running as the tea party’s Mr. Conservative—aggressively antigovernment except for national defense, with an explicit appeal to Christian social conservatives. John Kasich is this generation’s compassionate conservative, who cites his faith as justification for expanding Medicaid and extending “unconditional love” to gays and lesbians. Scott Walker is the fighting conservative who fires supporters’ hopes that he will stick it to the liberals in Washington, as he did to public-sector unions in Wisconsin.
Opinion Journal Video
Assistant Editorial Features Editor Kate Bachelder on the Democratic presidential candidate’s latest plan to soak the rich. Photo: Getty Images

Although Jeb Bush may have been quite conservative by the standards of the 1990s, today he is the voice of the moderate conservative establishment, most comfortable talking about economic growth and opportunity, and about education and immigration as the means to them. And Marco Rubio is running as the future of conservatism—a perfect match of message and messenger.

On the personal front, Mr. Kasich comes across as warm, passionate, almost hectic. Mr. Rubio too is warm—genial, welcoming, a clear and fluent speaker with more self-control than the Ohio governor. Mr. Walker is competent but doesn’t seem as forceful as his record, or quite large enough for the higher office he seeks. Mr. Bush is workmanlike, well-versed in the issues but without the ability to present his positions concisely. Mr. Cruz knows what he wants to say, so much so that he often sounds rehearsed, with an ever-present edge of barely suppressed anger.

When it comes to preparation and experience, Republicans will have to choose between candidates who have substantial executive experience and those who don’t. The party may well hesitate to nominate an eloquent senator still in his first term—Messrs. Cruz and Rubio fit that description. At a time when Americans are wringing their hands about Washington’s dysfunction, candidates who are able to say “I can get it done” and back up their claims with hard evidence will enjoy an advantage over those who can’t.

This brings us to the strategic choice Republicans face—whether to focus on broadening the party’s appeal or doing a better job of mobilizing its base.

In 2012 Mitt Romney garnered only 47% of the popular vote, even though he received 59% of the white vote—56% of whites with a college degree and 61% of those without one. The problem for Republicans is that the white share of the electorate is falling about two percentage points every four years.

The white-working-class share is falling even faster—about three points each quadrennial cycle. In 1988 whites made up 85% of the electorate. By 2012, whites were down to 72%, and their share will be even lower—about 70%—in 2016. In 1988 whites without a college degree accounted for 54% of the electorate; in 2012 the percentage had dropped to 36%; the projection for 2016 is 33%. With each election, it becomes harder for Republicans to parlay a base-mobilization strategy into national victory.

The advantage of this strategy is that it requires no shifts of positions that risk intraparty strife. Not so for the alternative of broadening their appeal. Republicans who think that a different tone without substantive changes can do the job are fooling themselves, just as status quo Democrats did in 1988. Mr. Romney got only 27% of the Hispanic vote, 25% of Asian votes and 38% of young adults.

As the Republican National Committee’s postmortem report on 2012 argued, winning the White House without endorsing comprehensive immigration reform and adopting a more-welcoming stance toward gays and lesbians would be difficult at best.

That could happen. John Kasich has endorsed a path to legal status for persons who entered the U.S. illegally. So has Jeb Bush. Scott Walker went further as recently as two years ago, advocating a path to citizenship, before reversing himself and opting for a hard-line anti-immigration stance. Marco Rubio pushed for comprehensive immigration reform but then hit a conservative stone wall and backed off.

From a Democratic standpoint, a moderate-conservative Republican ticket representing the two largest swing states would be cause for concern. In fact, Bush-Kasich would be scary, and Kasich-Rubio even more so.
Popular on WSJ

 
 


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 12, 2015, 01:08:15 PM
"From a Democratic standpoint, a moderate-conservative Republican ticket representing the two largest swing states would be cause for concern. In fact, Bush-Kasich would be scary, and Kasich-Rubio even more so."

Bush Kasich is most scary to me forget about the Democrats.  These two are Democrat-lites.

WSJ forgets that Bush senior went from an approval rating of over 90% from the Iraq Kuwait invasion to less than 50% by 1991.

Bush jr.  went from 90% to 26%.

But no matter.  He is their guy.

Kasich is a liberal with a Republican label.

Rubio I am still not sure.

I don't see why Cruz is mentioned as a plausible but Fiorina, Jindal, and others are not.

The WSJ may as well be the Huffington post as far as I am concerned.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 13, 2015, 07:27:41 AM
"From a Democratic standpoint, a moderate-conservative Republican ticket representing the two largest swing states would be cause for concern. In fact, Bush-Kasich would be scary, and Kasich-Rubio even more so."

Bush Kasich is most scary to me forget about the Democrats.  These two are Democrat-lites.

WSJ forgets that Bush senior went from an approval rating of over 90% from the Iraq Kuwait invasion to less than 50% by 1991.

Bush jr.  went from 90% to 26%.

But no matter.  He is their guy.

Kasich is a liberal with a Republican label.

Rubio I am still not sure.

I don't see why Cruz is mentioned as a plausible but Fiorina, Jindal, and others are not.

The WSJ may as well be the Huffington post as far as I am concerned.

That piece was by Bill Galston who is hired by the WSJ to write an opposing or different view than the editorial writers, as Al Hunt and others have done.  Crafty prefaced it with 'moderate Republican view'.  CCP comparison with huff post is about right.  But given the rino or centrist perspective, Bush-Kasich might be a dream ticket for him, and might win, which is better for America than when we let Obama win, or Bernie winning, or Hillary, etc.  I still hold out hope that a really sharp and talented true conservative can run win and change people's minds on some things.

Recent history tells us though that the pale shades of pastels don't in fact give us better results than painting in bold colors, paraphrasing someone successful in this business.

Bush and Kasich were two popular governors of two very key states. Almost a dream ticket.  Hillary is almost a dream candidate for Dems on paper too, but in fact she is miserable.  So we play the game and watch them perform...
Title: Henninger
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 13, 2015, 09:12:12 AM
 By
Daniel Henninger
Aug. 12, 2015 6:44 p.m. ET
294 COMMENTS

Donald Trump has achieved the most coveted role in American politics—presidential kingmaker. Whichever man or woman occupies the Oval Office in January 2017, history will note that the man who enabled it was Donald Trump.

The path to ordaining Hillary Clinton as president is worn and beaten: Mr. Trump, like Ross Perot in 1992, would run as a third-party candidate and default the second member of the Clinton family into office with less than 50% of the popular vote. Bill Clinton got all of 43%.

Mr. Trump could pay a high reputational price for this. Holding open the back door to the White House for Hillary Clinton will fracture post- Obama America into ungovernable divisions, but . . . whatever.

Donald Trump isn’t going to crown himself the next Republican president. Reversing Mr. Trump’s negatives with voters beyond his affinity group would make the loaves and the fishes look like child’s play. But Mr. Trump just did something unique in presidential politics: He delivered 24 million prospective voters to the Republican Party in its Aug. 6 primary debate on Fox News. It is a mind-boggling number.

In 2008, wunderkind Barack Obama debated Hillary Clinton—favored then as now—and 10.7 million watched, less than half Thursday’s audience. The earlier, happy-hour GOP debate Thursday had six million viewers.

The next day, I walked by a bar in hip Williamsburg, Brooklyn, which still had its chalkboard sign on the sidewalk: “Watch the DEBATE here!” Folks, if they are promoting Republican debates in Brooklyn bars, we’ve entered another dimension. (!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Donald Trump’s rowdy fame delivered a monster audience, but what did 24 million Americans see? More to the point, what did they expect to see?

They came for blood sport. After the wild buildup (the Mexican rapists, John McCain is no hero) they expected to see Donald Trump do a World Wrestling Federation number with nine opponents, verbally flying off the turnbuckles to flatten Scott Walker, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. That didn’t happen. Instead, WWF showman that he is, Mr. Trump climbed out of the ring to take on Megyn Kelly down in the seats.

Many of the 24 million also came to see the 2015 edition of the Republican Party’s notorious presidential zoo. Anytime Republicans collect onstage together, you expect cringe-making eruptions. You expect from experience that at least one will say something crackpot. Those moments in the 2011-12 debates diminished all the Republicans onstage.

Against this backdrop, what happened instead last Thursday was eye-opening—as in millions of opened eyes.

This wasn’t 2011 all over again. In the past four years, something has changed. The party’s nine strong and winning Senate candidates in 2014 were an intriguing upgrade. But now this group.

You expect Republicans to take the “social-issues” questions and drive themselves into a ditch. But asked about gay marriage, John Kasich gave a remarkably thoughtful, apparently spontaneous, answer.

They asked Ben Carson if he’d bring back waterboarding. After a moment, Dr. Carson replied, “There is no such thing as a politically correct war.” It was a good answer.

Chris Christie got into exchanges with Mike Huckabee on Social Security and Rand Paul on surveillance that offered a look into where the lines are drawn on two relevant issues.

Immigration questions have been the GOP’s Bermuda Triangle for two presidential election cycles. Now, they handle them.

Jeb Bush’s answer on Common Core, that the real goal should be an education system parents believe will lead to jobs for their kids in the 21st century, was at least adept.

Marco Rubio, another political prodigy, was concise and focused. Ted Cruz, the Senate’s flamethrowing freshman, was steady and articulate. Carly Fiorina’s summary attack on Hillary Clinton’s integrity was bare-knuckle but not out of bounds.

A liberal viewer might have disagreed with every word spoken in two hours. But this wasn’t the famous zoo.

Winning presidential nominations, and then the general election, is about assembling votes at the margin, among minds still open to persuasion. How public opinion forms in elections has become more complex than ever.

Nielsen Social reported that while Jon Stewart’s final hour on Comedy Central produced 233,000 tweets on Twitter, the GOP debate produced 3.2 million. Mix together Facebook, texting, the Web, the still-huge carry of traditional media, and real conversations in all the country’s Brooklyn-like bars. Result: The audience for the GOP primary race is bigger and more open to hearing from the party’s candidates than anyone would have predicted a month ago.

This isn’t good for Donald Trump. Mr. Trump’s audience saw during the debate that most of his opponents aren’t puppets. The kingmaker will not be king. The phenomenon he helped create—a competitive, highly watched race—will now grind him down. Modern campaigns are too professional, too long and too expensive for him to win a 50-state delegate battle that doesn’t end until next June. Consult Rick Perry.

Third-party spoiler? That will be a one-way ticket to American history’s Palookaville.

Write to henninger@wsj.com.

Write to Daniel Henninger at henninger@wsj.com

Title: Whispers of Al Gore
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 13, 2015, 06:23:12 PM
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/al-gore-insiders-figuring-out-if-theres-a-path-for-him-to-ru#.qgRKwwE93
Title: Re: Whispers of Al Gore
Post by: DougMacG on August 14, 2015, 10:08:33 AM
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/al-gore-insiders-figuring-out-if-theres-a-path-for-him-to-ru#.qgRKwwE93

Al Gore without Tipper.  He is a divorced man now; what was that all about?  Plenty of new gaffes, statements, video clips and transactions to scrutinize since he thought he would never run again.  It's been 16 years (in 2016) since 2000 and 24 years since the 43% electoral 'landslide' of 1992.  He is a little bit out of the loop. 

If Warren gets in, she splits the Bernie vote, helping Hillary...

Also mentioned is current Secretary of State John Kerry, trying so hard to step up his game right now as this plays out with Hillary.  Kerry is a story of his own.  He will be 73 at inauguration.  His cutting off ears in Vietnam talk was more than a half century ago.  Married for money - twice.  Already lost to a relatively weak Republican.  Is betting the farm on Obama's foreign policy where 57% disapprove before it even faces scrutiny.  He is probably the smoothest talker of the old guard. 

But where is the new guard?  Who is the Marco Rubio of the Dems?  Debbie blabbermouth Schultz?  I have been saying Hickenlooper:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/mine-disaster/colorado-governor-john-hickenlooper-drinks-animas-river-water-story-behind-photo
He will be 65 just after inauguration.  If he was a Republican, Crafty would call him a boring white guy.  )

Biden might become the choice of the Obama machine, with Obama front and center pleading for America to continue his destruction, and the choice of VP becoming crucial for the Dem future. 

Don't rule out Michelle.  I feared she would follow the Hillary route, run for Senate and stake out her own ground.  But she is an Obama and an elitist, why wait for that?

Most likely, because they don't have one who can do it, they will all get in and the Dems will have a mess worse than the Republicans to straighten out with the clock ticking down. 

All this happened after we called Hillary inevitable for the 16th year in a row.  If you didn't care about the future of the country, this would be fun to watch.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 15, 2015, 06:21:01 AM
"Sure, we've got a lot of reasons to be angry. But the country is in a very Dark-Side-of-the-Force mood, convinced that anger is empowering, not blinding. At some point, a person enveloped in relentless, fiery anger and grievances stops making sense to anyone else. When a movement's philosophy is so easily summarized by 'GFY,' it's hard to believe they're being unfairly 'bashed.'" —Jim Geraghty
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 15, 2015, 04:15:28 PM
Well Obama has been saying to one half the country GFY for over 6.5 yrs.  (I had to look that one up)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 15, 2015, 06:01:23 PM
Frankly, this is all rearranging the deck chairs on the deck of the Titanic at this point.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 18, 2015, 11:06:11 AM
I gave $20 each to Carson and Fiorina this morning.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 19, 2015, 07:45:17 AM
    What If Donald Trump Really Is . . . Electable?

Do a dance, Donald Trump fans, because the “he’ll lose a general election in a landslide ” argument just took some damage in the CNN poll out this morning:

The poll finds Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by just 6 points, a dramatic tightening since July. Trump is the one of three Republican candidates who have been matched against Clinton multiple times in CNN/ORC polling to significantly whittle the gap between himself and the Democratic frontrunner. He trailed Clinton by 16 points in a July poll, and narrowed that gap by boosting his standing among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (from 67% support in July to 79% now), men (from 46% in July to 53% now) and white voters (from 50% to 55%).

It will be fascinating to see if applying likely voter screens changes these numbers. Usually, Republican candidates do a few points better among a sample of likely voters than overall registered voters. But Donald Trump’s name identification among the general population is so high, his numbers might be the same.

Why Democrats Can’t Confront What Hillary Has Done

The Democratic party is about to have a breakdown.

For at least the past four years, if not longer, the average Democrat, when asked about the nominee-in-waiting, will respond, “Hillary Clinton is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I’ve ever known in my life.” Oh, sure, they may not be able to think of any accomplishments, and they may gripe about her ties to Wall Street. They may openly acknowledge that she lied about her e-mail server. Her team may openly gloat that no one cares whether she followed the rules or the laws about government archiving. But most of that they hand-wave away. She’s just doing it because she has such ruthless enemies. Everybody does it, she’s judged by an unfair, harsher standard than everyone else.

The problem is that there isn’t really a good reason to keep lots of classified information on a private server. We’re talking about information from the National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (spy satellite images), the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the Central Intelligence Agency.

The Director of the DIA at the time Hillary was at the State Department said there’s a “very high” chance her e-mails were hacked by foreign intelligence -- Chinese, Russians, or others. “Likely. They’re very good at it. You know, China, Russia, Iran, potentially the North Koreans. Other countries that are quote-unquote our allies, because they can.”

And here’s who was running the server:

The IT company Hillary Clinton chose to maintain her private email account was run from a loft apartment and its servers were housed in the bathroom closet, Daily Mail Online can reveal.

Daily Mail Online tracked down ex-employees of Platte River Networks in Denver, Colorado, who revealed the outfit’s strong links to the Democratic Party but expressed shock that the 2016 presidential candidate chose the small private company for such a sensitive job.

One, Tera Dadiotis, called it “a mom and pop shop” which was an excellent place to work, but hardly seemed likely to be used to secure state secrets. And Tom Welch, who helped found the company, confirmed the servers were in a bathroom closet.

This sort of decision is just stupid. It’s dangerous for herself, for everyone she e-mails, for the Obama administration, and of course, for national security. It’s an astonishingly short-sighted risk-reward calculation, to escape Freedom of Information Act requests and Congressional subpoenas by putting your communications at risk of being read by Russia’s foreign-intelligence service or the Chinese Ministry of State Security or God knows who else.

The problem for Democrats is that their worldview rests upon their leaders’ being the smart ones. They’re the ones who are wrapped up in “smart power.” They’re the ones sophisticated enough to “empathize with our enemies.” It’s those knuckle-dragging Republicans, those neocon warmongers, those paranoid xenophobes, those backwards hicks who just don’t understand how the world works. All it takes to get Russia to behave better is a reset button. The fall of Muammar Qaddafi in Libya deserves a “victory lap.” Syria’s Bashir Assad is a “reformer” and “the road to Damascus is the road to peace.”

If Democrats acknowledge Hillary made a stupid and consequential decision, everything else built upon that perception of intellectual and judgmental superiority crumbles. Yes, it erodes the case for her to be commander-in-chief. But what’s more, it forces Democrats to look at what their foreign-policy philosophy has really generated. Has the outstretched hand really thawed relations with hostile states? Have the concessions made to hostile states changed their behavior, rhetoric, or policies? Are international institutions really responsive to horrific mass violence? Is the world safer? Are human rights more respected? Are extremist groups waning or thriving and expanding?
Coming to terms with all of that is just too hard. So many Democrats will choose to believe that the Federal Bureau of Investigation is involved in a partisan witch hunt.
Meanwhile, in that CNN poll:

Clinton maintains this edge in the general election race despite a growing perception that by using a personal email account and server while serving as secretary of state she did something wrong. About 56% say so in the new poll, up from 51% in March. About 4-in-10 (39%) now say she did not do anything wrong by using personal email. Among Democrats, the share saying she did not do anything wrong has dipped from 71% in March to 63% now, and just 37% of independents say she did not do wrong by using the personal email system.

And positive impressions of Clinton continue to fade. Among all adults, the new poll finds 44% hold a favorable view of her, 53% an unfavorable one, her most negative favorability rating since March 2001.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 19, 2015, 08:12:13 AM
Check the Huff Post.  The rationalizations and denial and corruption of Dem party on display for all to see.

Still "right wing conspiracy" allegations abound.

They have all their eggs money sweat blood and corrupt machine invested in her alone.

It is certainly enjoyable to see her squirm (with a cloth or something) but it will take a lot more to knock her unconscious.

Her handlers have surrounded her and propping her up.

Even the Feminist CNN though replayed the snarky wiping response this morning.  If the lib gals at CNN even do this then there really is a crack in the machine.

 :-D :-D :lol: :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 19, 2015, 08:39:10 AM
I gave $20 each to Carson and Fiorina this morning.

This is the right strategy.  Either of those two could win and be a great President, but only if people step forward and support them.  This is how you vote now from a state where your vote later will not really matter.  Great timing in terms of hitting both of them as they build momentum.  Like every non-profit raising money, they are looking at numbers of contributors, not just the size of the donation.  Everyone who is informed and wants to make a difference should pick now or pick soon and send support.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 19, 2015, 09:10:54 AM
Thank you Doug.  You understand my thinking precisely.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 19, 2015, 09:47:27 AM
...
It is certainly enjoyable to see her squirm (with a cloth or something) but it will take a lot more to knock her unconscious.
...
Even the Feminist CNN though replayed the snarky wiping response this morning.  If the lib gals at CNN even do this then there really is a crack in the machine.
 :-D :-D :lol: :lol: :lol:

Yes.  We saw this coming but we couldn't even imagine it playing out this badly for her  It is so surreal that it seems intentional.  She has very current statements running where she says no classified material was sent or received while the classified email count is over 300 and still rising.  Then she switched to saying 'marked or designated classified' as if the people who may have removed marking weren't under her responsibility or that she wouldn't know that spy satellite aerial photos of Yemen with terrorist locations marked aren't classified, marked or not??

Now the joking about it , talk about tone-deaf - jokes require timing.  She forgot to put this behind her first before lame attempts to poke fun at it all, snapchat with automatic delete and wiping clean with a cloth, ha ha.  That ought to build trust and make felony breach of security charges go away.

I wonder if our best interest is to watch her keep limping toward winning the nomination and losing the general election rather than hope for some newcomer ride in, unscrutinized, and save the day for Dems.

Meanwhile, none of our central questions about her biggest crisis as Sec State (Benghazi) have been answered.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 19, 2015, 09:52:02 AM
Remember the bribes through the Clinton Foundation too!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - immigration
Post by: DougMacG on August 19, 2015, 10:25:05 AM
The elephant in the presidential election room is still immigration policy.  It was the starting point and remains the central appeal of frontrunner Trump.  It is the main source of conservative distrust of Bush, and also Rubio.  It was a central argument here on the board too.

Clinton has been clear; she will continue and even expand all of Obama's efforts to ignore current law and write new law expanding our country with new arrivals, regardless of existing law.

Trump says send them home, they've got to go, and goes further - he says don't break up families, send entire families back.  Deport is the only way to follow the law.  Others can stop Trump by stealing his issue and running on it too.

But polls say only 30% of Republicans support widespread deportation. and much lower for the whole electorate.  Any candidate taking that side will compete for a share of the 30%, but not win the Presidency.  

Ann Coulter's research and book has landed a few, very serious, valid points.  Our legal immigration flow is out of control too.  We are not acting at all in our own best interest.  Securing the border is only a part of the problem and solution.

On the other side of it is Jeb - 'they invade as an act of love.'  It is partly true, they love their family and want the best for their children.  But that doesn't speak to our best interests.  Paradoxically, the new people bring voting habits that support the dysfunction they are fleeing.  

In the middle is almost every other candidate and they are floundering.  Someone needs to emerge with a plan tougher than the compromise reforms we have been hearing but still practical and compassionate enough to win. There needs to be a comprehensive plan to overhaul every aspect of the system.  Every overstayed visa needs to be dealt with.  Every illegal family I'm afraid needs to be scrutinized.  Not only rapists and murderers, but people who came here illegally only to become chronic dependents on our generosity need to go back and start over.  Don't confuse the Merican safety net with the American dream.  This process won't be easy or pretty.  But running away from the elephant in the room just isn't working.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 19, 2015, 11:13:54 AM
The 14th Amendment argument will be a very tough one to make too.  There is a lot of headwind against the reading Trump is advocating, even from a lot of right of center talking heads.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 19, 2015, 03:49:03 PM
The 14th Amendment argument will be a very tough one to make too.  There is a lot of headwind against the reading Trump is advocating, even from a lot of right of center talking heads.

Screw the talking heads. The actual victims of the criminal invasion are much more compelling.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 19, 2015, 04:26:10 PM
If people think that Donald is just blowing off the Constitution, that will not be good.  He has to make the case well.    Maybe he can lurk here and go back to the threads where we discussed this a couple of years ago.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 20, 2015, 07:59:57 AM
"Screw the talking heads. The actual victims of the criminal invasion are much more compelling."

 I agree as do many others who support Trump because he is saying what needs to be said and the rest of the pack are too cowardice to say.

They are "anchor babies" they come here illegally abusing our laws have babies at our expense and then turn around and demand resources and benefits and call us racist or xenophobes (the new left name - aka 'homophobes') and the rest.

They undermine all those who come here legally including Puerto Ricans who are Americans.

What about them?  They are Latinos.  What rights do they have in all this.?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 20, 2015, 10:24:08 AM
Last night O'Reilly affirmed that in 1985 that SCOTUS declared the birthright reading of the 15th (INV vs. Fernandez?).

If we can't address that then we got a problem.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Birthwrong citizenship
Post by: DougMacG on August 20, 2015, 09:00:59 PM
From our own threads it looked to me like the wrong interpretation of the 14th amendment came in a footnote to a case and became precedent and thus the law of land, subject to either some new case being set up to overturn it or the passing of an amendment that makes restores the amendment to its original, intended meaning.

The President plays no direct role in the constitutional amendment process.  The common way to do it is to have 2/3 of the House and 2/3 of the Senate pass it and send it to the state legislatures where 3/4ths of them (38) are needed to ratify it.  70% of the state chambers are now Republican; getting all of those still leaves you 4 states short.  Passage in 34 Republican states plus 4 Democratic states would do it.  Counting in the other direction, passage in all but the 12 most leftward states is required to amend the constitution with a conservative reform. 

A constitutional convention is another way, same difficulty, I believe.

5 Justices could fix this too.  But they won't.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2015, 11:41:07 PM
Correction:  INS vs. Pineda.  Anyone have a URL?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2015, 11:47:13 PM
Ted Cruz told Megan Kelly that there are quality C'l scholars on both sides of the question.

MK reminded him that previously he had supported the birth right interpretation.  He acknowledged but repeated that there are reasonable scholars on both sides and suggested that both seeking judicial change and C'l change because birthright is bad policy.

Worth noting is that the language on subject to the jurisdiction and Congress making law to effectuate the intent had Indians excluded until Congress passed a law in the 1940s (sorry I have no citation for this).   Question: If Congress can expand those subject to the jurisdiction, why can't it contract those subject to the jurisdiction?
Title: Noonan: America is so in play
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 28, 2015, 06:58:32 AM
So, more thoughts on Donald Trump’s candidacy, because I can’t stop being fascinated.

You know the latest numbers. Quinnipiac University’s poll this week has Mr. Trump at a hefty 28% nationally, up from 20% in July. Public Policy Polling has Mr. Trump leading all Republicans in New Hampshire with 35%. A Monmouth University poll has him at 30% in South Carolina, followed 15 points later by Ben Carson.

Here are some things I think are happening.

One is the deepening estrangement between the elites and the non-elites in America. This is the area in which Trumpism flourishes. We’ll talk about that deeper in.

Second, Mr. Trump’s support is not limited to Republicans, not by any means.

Third, the traditional mediating or guiding institutions within the Republican universe—its establishment, respected voices in conservative media, sober-minded state party officials—have little to no impact on Mr. Trump’s rise. Some say voices of authority should stand up to oppose him, which will lower his standing. But Republican powers don’t have that kind of juice anymore. Mr. Trump’s supporters aren’t just bucking a party, they’re bucking everything around, within and connected to it.

Since Mr. Trump announced I’ve worked or traveled in, among other places, Southern California, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey and New York’s Long Island. In all places I just talked to people. My biggest sense is that political professionals are going to have to rethink “the base,” reimagine it when they see it in their minds.

I’ve written before about an acquaintance—late 60s, northern Georgia, lives on Social Security, voted Obama in ’08, not partisan, watches Fox News, hates Wall Street and “the GOP establishment.” She continues to be so ardent for Mr. Trump that she not only watched his speech in Mobile, Ala., on live TV, she watched while excitedly texting with family members—middle-class, white, independent-minded—who were in the audience cheering. Is that “the Republican base”? I guess maybe it is, because she texted me Wednesday to say she’d just registered Republican. I asked if she’d ever been one before. Reply: “No, never!!!”

Something is going on, some tectonic plates are moving in interesting ways. My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular “El Vacilón de la Mañana,” and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts. I later spoke to one of them, who identified himself as D.J. New Era. He backed Cesar’s story. “We were very surprised,” at the Trump support, he said. Why? “It’s a Latin-based market!”

“He’s the man,” Cesar said of Mr. Trump. This week I went by and Cesar told me that after Mr. Trump threw Univision’s well-known anchor and immigration activist, Jorge Ramos, out of an Iowa news conference on Tuesday evening, the “El Vacilón” hosts again threw open the phone lines the following morning and were again surprised that the majority of callers backed not Mr. Ramos but Mr. Trump. Cesar, who I should probably note sees me, I sense, as a very nice establishment person who needs to get with the new reality, was delighted.

I said: Cesar, you’re supposed to be offended by Trump, he said Mexico is sending over criminals, he has been unfriendly, you’re an immigrant. Cesar shook his head: No, you have it wrong. Immigrants, he said, don’t like illegal immigration, and they’re with Mr. Trump on anchor babies. “They are coming in from other countries to give birth to take advantage of the system. We are saying that! When you come to this country, you pledge loyalty to the country that opened the doors to help you.”

He added, “We don’t bloc vote anymore.” The idea of a “Latin vote” is “disparate,” which he said generally translates as nonsense, but which he means as “bull----.”

He finished, on the subject of Jorge Ramos: “The elite have different notions from the grass-roots working people.”

OK. Old style: Jorge Ramos speaks for Hispanic America. New style: Jorge Ramos speaks for Jorge Ramos. Old style: If I’ve lost Walter Cronkite, I’ve lost middle America. New style: How touching that an American president once thought if you lost a newsman you’d lost a country.

It is noted that a poll this week said Hispanics are very much not for Donald Trump. Gallup had 65% with an unfavorable view of him, and only 14% favorable. Mr. Trump and Mr. Ramos actually got into that, when Mr. Ramos finally questioned him after being allowed back into the news conference. Mr. Trump countered with a recent Nevada poll that has him with a state lead of 28%—and he scored even higher with Nevada’s Hispanics, who gave him 31% support.

I will throw in here that almost wherever I’ve been this summer, I kept meeting immigrants who are or have grown conservative—more men than women, but women too.

America is so in play.

And: “the base” isn’t the limited, clichéd thing it once was, it’s becoming a big, broad jumble that few understand.
***

On the subject of elites, I spoke to Scott Miller, co-founder of the Sawyer Miller political-consulting firm, who is now a corporate consultant. He worked on the Ross Perot campaign in 1992 and knows something about outside challenges. He views the key political fact of our time as this: “Over 80% of the American people, across the board, believe an elite group of political incumbents, plus big business, big media, big banks, big unions and big special interests—the whole Washington political class—have rigged the system for the wealthy and connected.” It is “a remarkable moment,” he said. More than half of the American people believe “something has changed, our democracy is not like it used to be, people feel they no longer have a voice.”

Mr. Miller added: “People who work for a living are thinking this thing is broken, and that economic inequality is the result of the elite rigging the system for themselves. We’re seeing something big.”

Support for Mr. Trump is not, he said, limited to the GOP base: “The molecules are in motion.” I asked what he meant. He said bars of support are not solid, things are in motion as molecules are “before combustion, or before a branch breaks.”

I end with this. An odd thing, in my observation, is that deep down the elite themselves also think the game is rigged. They don’t disagree, and they don’t like what they see—corruption, shallowness and selfishness in the systems all around them. Their odd anguish is that they have no faith the American people can—or will—do anything to turn it around. They see the American voter as distracted, poorly educated, subject to emotional and personality-driven political adventures. They sometimes refer to “Jaywalking,” the old Jay Leno “Tonight Show” staple in which he walked outside the studio and asked the man on the street about history. What caused the American Civil War? Um, Hitler? When did it take place, roughly? Uh, 1958?

Both sides, the elites and the non-elites, sense that things are stuck.

The people hate the elites, which is not new, and very American. The elites have no faith in the people, which, actually, is new. Everything is stasis. Then Donald Trump comes, like a rock thrown through a showroom window, and the molecules start to move.
Title: Elites: George Will
Post by: ccp on August 28, 2015, 10:37:12 AM
From CD's post,

"One is the deepening estrangement between the elites and the non-elites in America"
Speaking of elites who are out of touch:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-havoc-that-donald-trump-wreaks--on-his-own-party/2015/08/26/7418c2c8-4b4c-11e5-84df-923b3ef1a64b_story.html

Seeing him on cable seems to me he has just as much snarl as he claims Trump has.  Not unlike the smirks the Democrat liberals have on their faces whenever challenged.

And I don't believe the numbers he throws around in his articles.  Does anyone for one second believe the number of illegals in this country is the same or lower than it was years ago?

Who is kidding who?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 28, 2015, 01:25:20 PM
Will has been a serious commentator on the scene for decades now.  IMHO he raises a number of fair points in this piece, whether one agrees with it or not.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on August 28, 2015, 01:29:03 PM
CCP,

I loved the Peggy Noonan article. She is beginning to pick up on what the "commoner's" are thinking.

"Since Mr. Trump announced I’ve worked or traveled in, among other places, Southern California, Connecticut, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey and New York’s Long Island. In all places I just talked to people. My biggest sense is that political professionals are going to have to rethink “the base,” reimagine it when they see it in their minds."

The professionals and the elites do not and cannot understand what is going on across the US. They don't have the interactions with those outside of their "class" so they cannot conceive of the anger, distrust, and the longing for a true leader, no matter what is going on.

For at least the last decade, the US is perceived to have been leaderless, and likely much longer. Obama did not show the qualities of a leader, and that has been shown by the state of the country now. 43 was no better, except in his initial response to 9-11. He squandered that beginning in 2003 and lost it completely soon after.

Clinton turned out to be no leader who could motivate the masses. He did a bit within his party, but that was lost as well. 41 could never produce real leadership qualities.

Among those who have run for President and lost, neither Gore or Kerry for the dems, nor McCain or Romney on the right. And currently, Hillary, Jeb, Rubio, or the others inspire others, so they are lacking as well.

Leadership is the ability to engage and pull together people from across all sectors of the population. It involves being able to communicate to the people that there is hope for improvement of their lives, and their futures and it inspires people to believe that there can be a positive outcome.

Since FDR, there has been only Reagan who could inspire the masses to believe in something better. Reagan brought together people of all stripes into the Reagan coalition with his "shining city on the hill", a belief that we could turn around the failures of the 70's.

Trump is doing the same with his "Make America Great Again". He is offering a vision that no politician has offered since Reagan. Instead of condemning America, he is praising America and offers hope that we can return to the days of yore.

This is what leaders do. They offer a hope that all can embrace and offer a road map to get there. Their appeal comes from all corners and are not just limited to one sector.

The GOP and the media do not understand the concept of leadership. They think that just being elected means leadership, and that is not so. Leadership must inspire, but the GOP candidates outside of Trump show no clear indication of leadership qualities. Carson could offer such in the future, and Cruz might as well. But they need to grow to the task.
Carly, not likely, and the others, not at all.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on August 28, 2015, 01:32:40 PM
Let's see. Will has condemned all who would support Trump as vulgar, uneducated and much more. He is a damned elitist who has lived in the Beltway far too long. BTW, his wife is on the Walker team.

As for me, I am a  "Vulgarian" and proud of it.  Thank you very much, George Will.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 28, 2015, 01:36:48 PM
Pat:

Of course you make good points in favor of Trump , , , AND there is good cause to be concerned.  Why is it he is getting a pass from some of us on Kelo or the small homeowner he bullied with his crony capitalist powers in Atlantic City, on having proposed a 14% wealth confiscation tax, pro-abortion, money to Hillary, and so much more?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on August 28, 2015, 02:57:42 PM
Why?

Pro abortion at one time. BFD.  The abortion issue is a ruse designed to keep the country divided. Abortion will never be banned in the US. it is now too ingrained. So why the continued controversy? Both side use abortion through special interest groups to keep the donations coming in to fund their own pockets.

His new tax plan is coming out in 4 weeks. We see what that is and then if it warrants complaint. But, I go with what he wrote in his 2012 book, and I am comfortable with his stand.

As to Kelo, I guess I am going to have to look at the entire decision, arguments, the reasons for the ED before I comment on it. It will all depend upon the facts.

Money to Hillary...........come on............a business man is going to donate to each side at that level.  His donation to the Clinton Foundation.........no one knew at the time what they were really doing.

Why not talk about the other things that Trump has done that no one hears about.

1. A couple of months ago, a young girl in CA needs to go to New York for major medical reasons. The airlines refused to sell her a ticket because to transport her, seats would have too be removed, as well as some specialized equipment being boarded. What happened? Trump heard about it and sent his private jet to pick her and her family up and transport them to NY for the medical care. No expense to them at all.

2. Remember the Marine who was held in Mexico for several months on the weapons charge? Obama and the other DC politicians did nothing. After the marine was released, Trump gave him a significant amount of money to restart his life.

3. Back in the late 1980's, a husband and wife were losing their farm in Texas. Just before the foreclosure, the husband committed suicide. Trump heard about the foreclosure and the suicide. he contacted the local bank and got the foreclosure postponed. Then he worked with other businessmen to buy out the loan and then eventually forgave the amount owed.

Bet you never heard about any of this. The only way these stories come out is because the people affected tell others what happened. Trump doesn't talk about it.

How many of the current politicians running for office would do things like this?  Hillary? She would steal the money. Bush? He would "no habla anglais" if she called. Rubio? i don't have any money to help?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 28, 2015, 06:04:22 PM
I think I'd  vote for Trump, because there really is nothing left to lose at this point.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on August 28, 2015, 07:06:11 PM
Trump nailed the CNN reporter tonight. Thousands of people for Trump and CNN wanted to ask him about a couple of protesters present.

Cantor endorses Bush.....Bush should have said "don't do me any favors".

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 28, 2015, 07:10:36 PM
Trump nailed the CNN reporter tonight. Thousands of people for Trump and CNN wanted to ask him about a couple of protesters present.

Cantor endorses Bush.....Bush should have said "don't do me any favors".



Wow! The coveted Cantor endorsement. Election over!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 28, 2015, 07:16:47 PM
Trump nailed the CNN reporter tonight. Thousands of people for Trump and CNN wanted to ask him about a couple of protesters present.

Cantor endorses Bush.....Bush should have said "don't do me any favors".



The more Trump bitchslaps the corrupt media, the more I like him.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 28, 2015, 07:35:24 PM
Just to be clear, unless things change I'd certainly vote for Trump over any of the Dems.  I'm just saying we need to see a lot more before putting our good name in his hands.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 28, 2015, 07:52:08 PM
Just to be clear, unless things change I'd certainly vote for Trump over any of the Dems.  I'm just saying we need to see a lot more before putting our good name in his hands.

It is not like we have a lot of choices. No one I would prefer  has near the attraction. Trump beats what the pub establishment would shove down our throats.
Title: Summary of candidates' positions on Islam...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 29, 2015, 04:31:56 PM
This, as I told Crafty recently, is a critically important issue, and based on her position, one that eliminates Fiorina from my consideration until/unless she educates herself on the subject:

www.barenakedislam.com/2015/08/05/update-on-republican-presidential-candidates-positions-on-islam-and-the-islamic-threat-to-america/

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 29, 2015, 06:29:18 PM
That is a good URL Obj.
Title: Steyn
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 29, 2015, 09:43:34 PM
http://www.steynonline.com/7138/hillary-is-deleting-herself
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Scott Walker
Post by: ppulatie on August 30, 2015, 03:49:47 PM
Why Scott Walker will not go anywhere.....build a wall to stop Canadians from coming here for

1. Health care

2. Starbucks

3. Vegetable and fruit harvesting


http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/canadian-border-wall-idea-draws-attention-to-scott-walker-s/article_babe634e-adda-5b07-97ef-27661c50b101.html (http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/canadian-border-wall-idea-draws-attention-to-scott-walker-s/article_babe634e-adda-5b07-97ef-27661c50b101.html)

Canadian border wall idea draws attention to Scott Walker's 'Meet the Press' interview

In a wide-ranging, 30-minute interview with "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd in Washington on Saturday, Gov. Scott Walker tried to explain his sagging job-approval numbers, pushed back on negative comparisons between Wisconsin and Minnesota and continued to hammer on the nuclear deal with Iran.

Some of the most-cited comments in early headlines after portions of the interview were broadcast on Sunday morning's show, however, were about a border wall.

No, not that one. A Canadian border wall.

Referencing a Walker foreign policy speech Friday in which the Republican presidential candidate said securing the borders was a top priority, Todd asked why no one's talking about building a wall on the United States' northern border to protect from terrorists gaining entry.

Walker said he recently heard just such an idea from law enforcement officials during a town-hall meeting in New Hampshire, which shares a 58-mile border with Canada and has one border crossing.

"So that is a legitimate issue for us to look at," Walker said.

The more popular idea among some Republican candidates, however, is a wall at the Mexican border, something Walker earlier this month followed frontrunner Donald Trump in calling for.

"If we're spending millions of dollars on TSA at our airports, if we're spending all sorts of money on port security, it only makes sense to me that if part of what we're trying to do is protect ourselves — and set aside immigration for a minute — and protect ourselves from risk out there, we should make sure we have a secure border," Walker said on "Meet the Press."

Todd opened the interview by asking about comments made by Walker ally and Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that the governor's campaign was "stuck in neutral" and needed a spark.

"I think the biggest spark for us is getting the message out that now's not the time to put in place someone who hasn't been tested before," said Walker, who fell to third behind Trump and Ben Carson in a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll conducted last week. "We saw what a mistake that was under Barack Obama. What we need is someone who's been tested. I've been tested unlike anybody else in this race on the Republican side."

Speaking of Obama, why does the president have a higher job-approval rating than Walker in Wisconsin, Todd asked. In a Marquette Law School Poll conducted Aug. 13-16, 48.5 percent of Wisconsin registered voters approved of Obama's performance while just 39.4 percent approved of Walker's.

It's nothing new, Walker said.

"Four years ago, I was so low in the polls they called me 'Dead Man Walker,'" Walker said. "Because back then we were pushing big, bold reforms, kind of like the big, bold reforms again we pushed in this latest budget. A year later, I won the recall with a higher percentage of the vote and a higher number of votes. Why? Because our reforms worked.

"For all the hype and hysteria of the 100,000 protestors, our schools are better. In fact, ACT scores again are second-best in the country. Our graduation rates are up. Our third-grade reading scores are up. The same thing will hold true here when people see that for students like my son, who's a junior at the University of Wisconsin, the reforms are going to work there as well. Property taxes continue to go down. When people see the benefits of our reforms, just like they did four years ago, I think our numbers will go up again."

Here's what Walker said on some of the other topics:



Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/canadian-border-wall-idea-draws-attention-to-scott-walker-s/article_babe634e-adda-5b07-97ef-27661c50b101.html#ixzz3kLDyxQcg
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 30, 2015, 11:32:49 PM
Actually, there's some real concerns about northern border security, but jihadis from Canuckistan would have to work hard to inflict a greater loss of life and money on the US to eclipse what we get from south of border.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on August 31, 2015, 11:16:40 AM

Bush new campaign photo


(http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/2459/9670/original.jpg?w=800&h)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on August 31, 2015, 12:00:29 PM
THE LAST DAYS OF HILLARY

Hillary Clinton’s worst punishment will be her failure.

August 28, 2015  Daniel Greenfield   


Hillary Clinton has spent a third of her adult life trying to become president. All for nothing.

The first time around, she wasted $200 million just to lose to Obama. $11 million of that money came from the notoriously "flat broke" couple. This time around she was determined to take no chances.

Together with her husband she built up a massive war chest using money from foreign governments and speaking fees from non-profits, funneled into her own dirty non-profit and a complex network of unofficial organizations staffed by Clinton loyalists, secured an unofficial endorsement from Obama and carefully avoided answering questions or taking positions on anything. There was no way she could lose.

Now she’s losing all over again.

Hillary has a ton of money, but can’t buy the nomination. She’s spending a quarter of a million a day on a campaign operation with no actual organized opposition to speak of. Even before Biden officially enters the race, she’s falling behind the joke candidacy of Bernie Sanders in key states.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign has spent tens of millions of dollars without making an impact. She spent almost a million on polling only to see her poll numbers drop every week. She dropped $2 million on ads about her mother to try to make women like her. It didn’t work. Nothing is working anymore.

Obama gave Biden his blessing to run. White House spokesman Josh Earnest praised Joe Biden to reporters, saying that there is “no one in American politics today who has a better understanding of exactly what is required to mount a successful national presidential campaign.”

It wasn’t a subtle message.

Earnest suggested that Obama might endorse a Democratic primary candidate. Despite the deal that the Clintons made in which Bill would campaign for Obama in 2012 in exchange for a Hillary endorsement, it’s looking less and less likely like that he will back Hillary Clinton. Instead Biden appears to be his man.

Biden is already polling better than Hillary in a national election. With Obama’s backing, he can strip away Hillary’s minority vote while Bernie Sanders takes the leftist vote. Hillary Clinton is already doubling down on gender politics by accusing pro-life Republicans of being terrorists, but it won’t work.

It didn’t work last time. It won’t work this time. Once again, Hillary has lost.

The only lesson that Hillary Clinton drew from her last election was to double down on all the things she did wrong. Her organization was big last time so she made it even bigger. It got so big that the different Super PACs were fighting each other over fundraising for her campaign. She had lots of money last time, so she was determined to have even more money this time. But that money has been wasted paying an army of useless people who couldn’t even do something as basic as produce a good logo.

Hillary Clinton was paranoid, controlling and dishonest last time. She decided to be twice as paranoid and dishonest this time around and it destroyed her image and her campaign.

Even before the rope lines and the interview boycotts, the media hated her. Once she began to aggressively shut out the media, its personalities gleefully reported on every email server scandal detail that her enemies in the White House fed to the New York Times and other administration mouthpieces.

It wasn’t a vast right wing conspiracy or even a more real left wing conspiracy that destroyed Hillary Clinton. If she were a stronger candidate, Obama and the left would have fallen in line behind her.

Once again, Hillary Clinton destroyed her own candidacy. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows that the top three words people associate with her are “liar,” “dishonest” and “untrustworthy.” If she hadn’t planned a cover-up before there was even anything to cover up and then responded to its disclosure with a series of terrible press conferences climaxing in asking reporters if they meant that she had wiped her email server with a cloth, her old reputation might have stayed buried long enough to win an election.

Now Hillary is right back where she was last time around. She has lots of money, but no one likes her. She’s trying to build a cult of personality, but none of the myriads of people who work for her will tell her the truth about her personality. She inspires no one and there’s no actual reason to vote for her.

With her popularity rapidly vanishing, Hillary is moving to her Führerbunker. Her aides plan to absorb defeats in early states and concentrate all the money and organization on crushing the opposition on Super Tuesday. They’re conceding that Hillary isn’t going to out-campaign her rivals individually, but are betting that her war machine is big enough to destroy them in eleven states at the same time.

Hillary still hasn’t learned that she can’t just buy an election. And she may not have the money to buy it. Donors lost a lot of money funding her failed campaign last time. They came on board again because they were convinced that she had a smooth ride to the nomination. Once Biden enters the race, donors will wait rather than pour more money into the struggling campaign of an unpopular candidate.

And many of the Obama donors who haven’t committed to Hillary will open their wallets for Biden.

ClintonWorld is an expensive theme park to run. All those staffers the Clintons have picked up have to be paid. And the Clintons can’t stop paying them because they have no true loyalists, only mercenaries. If their checks don’t clear, they’ll be working for Biden or O’Malley before you can say "Whitewater."

It will take that machine some time to slow to a halt. Hillary Clinton burned through $200 million fighting Obama. Elections have only gotten more expensive since then. But her donors will learn the hard way that money alone can’t make an unlikable politician with no charisma or compelling message, president.

Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a message, she has ambition. Her obsession with becoming president has overshadowed any reason that anyone might have to vote for her. She offers no hope and less change. Her candidacy is historic… but only for her. There is no promise she can make that anyone will believe.

After having spent much of her life trying to become president, she will leave once again a failure.

Some are hoping that Hillary will go to jail. But the anger, frustration and bitterness that will gnaw on her after wasting decades and a small fortune on two failed efforts to win the White House in which she had every advantage only to lose before even leaving the starting gate will be worse than any prison.

In January 2017, Hillary Clinton will be sitting in front of a television set watching someone else take the oath of office. Nothing the penal system has to offer would be a harsher punishment than that moment.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 31, 2015, 03:24:00 PM
Bush new campaign photo

I wonder what this race looks like if Bush drops out first.  Not much different I suppose.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Scott Walker
Post by: DougMacG on August 31, 2015, 03:33:45 PM
Liberals are giddy with the comparison between Wisconsin and Minnesota and Walker has failed to back up his claim of why that is apples and oranges.  Deflecting that question as he did here just makes it keep coming up.

If I have to answer it for him, he is already done.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2015, 06:54:10 PM
For a bit of fun, predictions on the first five candidates to drop out?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 01, 2015, 07:00:35 AM
Walker was on Levin's radio show last week.  Levin asked him questions and he started rambling in a rather disorganized fashion and frankly and not exaggeratingly after a few minutes of listening to him I literally fell asleep.

Thank God the car was parked and I wasn't driving down the highway.  I would have died or hurt someone else.

He has zero charisma, zero oratory skills, and without a doubt zero chance of going anywhere.

He would make a great hypnotist.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 01, 2015, 08:37:11 AM
For a bit of fun, predictions on the first five candidates to drop out?

Sounds like good way to continue showing my prediction deficiencies...   Like my prediction that Hillary won't run, it requires them to know they have no chance, not just for me to know.

Looking at the bottom of the draw it ought to be:
Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, and Gilmore and Pataki if anyone is counting them.  Also Jindal and Christie.  I would like to see Jindal stay in but it is tough to do without support.  Of course we may lose key people like Lincoln Chaffee too, lol.  Jim Webb isn't making an impact but may want a seat at the debate.

I think people like Scott Walker (and Tim Pawlenty last time) would make fine Presidents.  CCP and others have been too hard on him but are right, not enough sizzle to sell the steak.  Also, not enough excitement to cover up their errors and move forward.  Walker will get out as soon as he knows he won't win Iowa, but that might be after the results are in.

I would like to see Huckabee and Rand Paul out but it's probably not going to happen.  Rand in particular is way below expectations and has a Senate campaign to run.  Maybe Huck will fizzle when people start focusing on electability.

First big one out could be Jeb Bush.  He may have already found out he doesn't like doing this.  With Walker, that would make 2 of the original top three out.  And Rubio has a trend line down and is starting to make unforced errors.  All three out?

Of the August outsiders, Trump, Carson and Fiorina, you would think at least one may fall hard and fall soon.  My hope is that it's Trump but right now that's hard to see.  He looks stuck in the polls now but doesn't need to gain much ground as frontrunner to keep making an impact.  And he's having a great time doing it.

More importantly, who that is running in place and under-performing now that will step up their game into the big time?  More than one of them, I hope.

Also, who else will still get in?  Another independent?

Yes I realize I dodged your question.  )


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 01, 2015, 09:10:47 AM
Here is why no one will want to be the first to drop out.


Perry's smart glasses prevents him from dropping out fast. The glasses lead him to think that he still has a chance.

Graham is an attorney and politician. He is too arrogant to drop out fast.

Walker is still reading his press releases. He believes he can win yet.

Rubio can't drop out. His next job position depends upon him staying in the race, splitting anti Bush votes and allowing Bush to win so that he can get a cabinet post.

Bush is the "GOPe" choice. He can't drop out. He is the third coming of Bush.

Christie is too arrogant to drop out.

Rand is too much like his dad. He will stay in because he has nothing to lose but everything to gain with his Senate campaign.

Huckabee needs G-d to tell him to stop. Right now, he is receiving word from G-d to continue.

Santorum won't because the media is keeping him afloat.

Carly has the media attention, so she will remain for some time, even with her liberal beliefs like man made global warming and amnesty/immigration.

I expect  that Pataki and Gilmore will be the first two to go.

Go Trump!!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 01, 2015, 10:40:43 AM
"Go Trump"

I have to admit here I wish he would stop with the name calling.   I don't disagree with him in point but his name calling of Huma and Weiner is distracting from himself in my opinion.

If only he had Carson's temperament and Carson has his oratory skills;  that would = one big winner.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 01, 2015, 11:10:05 AM
It is red meat for his supporters.  "Advertisers puff."

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2015, 05:38:00 PM
FWIW I can imagine the current flame war between Trump and Jeb damaging both and leaving people fed up , , , and very receptive to Carson, from whom I hope for a strong performance at the next debate.

I could be wrong, but FWIW concern may seem soft, but IMHO he has a will of steel.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 01, 2015, 06:26:09 PM
The Trump supporters can live with a flame war.....in fact they are loving it right now. And all too many of them, myself included, will sit out if Jeb is the nominee.

There are rumors that the GOPe is pushing Carson now as a foil to Trump. Carson splits the vote to allow Jeb to be nominee.

BTW, in Iowa, the airwaves are filled right now with Carson ads running continuously. This is why he is doing so well at the moment. But this is not sustainable at his pace of fund raising.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 01, 2015, 06:39:07 PM
Sorry, but IMHO Jeb is done for more than one reason.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 02, 2015, 08:26:23 AM
Hopefully he is done. But the GOPe is still pushing him over all others. Conservative Treehouse has a full accounting of the Bush strategy.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/08/09/gope-2016-road-map-to-victory-tree-house-challenge/ (http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/08/09/gope-2016-road-map-to-victory-tree-house-challenge/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 02, 2015, 09:58:36 AM
Interesting read.
Title: WSJ: The No-Growth Campaign
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 02, 2015, 12:29:53 PM


The No-Growth Campaign
Clinton and Trump are offering nothing to improve the economy.


Stocks took another tumble on Tuesday on a weak manufacturing report out of China, and investor shivers about Japan, the oil patch and the U.S. are increasing. The shaky markets and underlying economy seem relevant to the presidential debate—yet the front-runners of both parties have next to no pro-growth ideas to contribute.

Hillary Clinton favors higher taxation, heavier regulation, more political shackling of business, and centralizing more economic control inside the White House. So does Donald Trump—at least as far as we can tell.

Mrs. Clinton is promising Obamanomics Plus: continue the agenda of the last eight years, with bonus corrections toward the left as necessary. She’s proposed to nearly double the top tax rate on some capital gains to 43.4% from 23.8%, for example, up from 15% as recently as 2012.

On energy, one of the few U.S. growth areas of the Obama era, she is even further to the left. The green elites used to tolerate support for the U.S. oil and natural gas boom if gas could be levered as a transition fuel toward a post-carbon future. Now they favor massive subsidies for wind and solar today and no fossil-fuel drilling, and Mrs. Clinton is moving their way.

About the only growth component of Mrs. Clinton’s agenda is immigration, and there she beats Mr. Trump in a romp. A larger workforce adds to GDP, and economists of all political persuasions agree that increasing human capital drives prosperity and offsets an otherwise aging population.

Mr. Trump’s candidacy is more attitude than substance, and his quicksilver positions change day to day, even minute to minute in the same interview. But he has been consistent about rounding up illegal immigrants and deporting them to their home countries—if they have one, in the case of kids born on U.S. soil. He supports “a pause” in legal immigration too.

The real-estate tycoon is also running as the most antitrade candidate since Herbert Hoover. He has assailed the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico and the pending Pacific Rim pact as “disasters” that are “killing us.” Mr. Trump promises to reopen these agreements and do better, though without saying how, apart from his alpha-male negotiating skills. He’s proposing tariffs as high as 30% on imports, and he has already promised to punish Ford and Nabisco for expanding production south of the border.

On taxes, Mr. Trump promises to release a “comprehensive” reform plan soon. So far, though, his only specifics have been some kind of tax relief for the middle class coupled with class warfare. He said in a recent interview that “I would take carried interest out, and I would let people making hundreds of millions of dollars a year pay some tax, because right now they are paying very little tax and I think it’s outrageous.”

Carried interest is the accounting term for a share of profits from investments in general partnerships—private equity, hedge funds, (ahem) real-estate outfits. Congress taxes this at-risk capital at a lower rate than ordinary wages because it only pays out if a fund invests wisely, but this treatment should be reconsidered as part a larger tax reform.

Mr. Trump doesn’t engage these facts, much less anything else that might help the real economy. Carried interest is a sideshow. Much like Mrs. Clinton and President Obama, he’s trying to stoke resentment of the rich, or the merely affluent, or foreigners, people dumber than he is, whoever.
***

This makes it all the passing stranger that some conservatives are embracing Mr. Trump as a truth-teller speaking to the anxieties of middle-American voters. On this view, he’s a hero for challenging the GOP policy consensus of low marginal tax rates, free trade, less regulation and entitlement reform.

Thus instead of modernizing the tax code for the 21st century, offer tax relief that does nothing to reduce complexity and distortion or to improve the incentives to work and invest. Rather than fixing a broken immigration system to attract the hard-working and ambitious, distract low-wage American workers by scapegoating illegal workers. Instead of making the U.S. economy more competitive, attack foreigners and adopt a divisive platform and rhetorical style designed to polarize a justifiably frustrated electorate.

But following Mr. Trump down these cul de sacs—a Canadian border wall?—is a formula to lose and deserve to. After seven years of slow growth and stagnant incomes, the GOP is well positioned to make the case against liberal economic policies while stumping for an optimistic agenda that offers disaffected voters the opportunities that faster growth and tight labor markets create.

But in the anti-reality of the current campaign, the GOP field is attacking each other and giving Hillary a pass. The candidates who break out will invoke something more inspiring than the no-growth future that the front-runners are offering.
Title: Re: WSJ Article on Trump and Clinton...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 02, 2015, 12:57:05 PM
The WSJ has made it clear that it despises Trump, for various reasons, I suspect most importantly because he is beholden to no one and thus the investor class fears him.  There is an absolutely vicious piece in the WSJ today that Rush Limbaugh quoted from on his radio program this afternoon.  This article makes a lot of assumptions about Trump's policies before they have even been articulated - such as his tax plan.  We simply don't know what it entails yet.  Then there is this from Dick Morris, which I happen to agree with:

www.dickmorris.com/hillarys-negatives-are-irreparable-trumps-are-not-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on September 02, 2015, 04:51:28 PM
Trump has one job. Illegal aliens.

I care less about anything else.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 02, 2015, 04:56:13 PM
Agreed....and to build a Wall.

Interesting, building the Wall would even be easier than building the Highway System, or in this case, repairing the Highway System.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 03, 2015, 10:08:58 PM
BTW apparently in various one on one polls, Trump beat all over Rep candidates by sizable margins , , , except for Ben Carson, who beat Donald by 19 points.
Title: Trump now outpolling all Dems
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 06, 2015, 10:03:46 AM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/09/05/new-election-poll-measures-trump-against-hillary-head-to-head-heres-how-it-turned-out/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%209-6-15%20Build-SUN&utm_term=Firewire
Title: Sanders ahead of Hillary in NH and more
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 06, 2015, 12:52:58 PM
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) has bounded ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among Democrats in New Hampshire and has narrowed the gap in Iowa, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll.

The poll also shows businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in strong positions in both states, with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fading.


In the New Hampshire poll, Mr. Sanders draws the support of 41% of Democratic voters, with Mrs. Clinton at 32%. Vice President Joe Biden, who has said he is considering a run but hasn’t entered the race, gets 16%. In the July NBC/Marist poll, Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Sanders 42% to 32%, with Biden at 12%.

When Mr. Biden isn’t included in the choices, Mr. Sanders leads Mrs. Clinton 49% to 38% in the new poll, a reversal from July, when Mrs. Clinton led 47% to 34%.

In Iowa, Mrs. Clinton now has an 11-point lead over Mr. Sanders, whether or not Mr. Biden is included, according to the poll. Her lead was more than twice that in the July poll.

While Mr. Sanders has been drawing big crowds to his liberal message at rallies, Mrs. Clinton has been on the defensive for months, hurt by continuing questions about the private email system she used while at the State Department. Senior aides have reached out to reassure supporters amid her slide in recent polls.

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, who has been pressing the Democratic party to expand the number of debates, remains mired in the low single digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire. The Democratic National Committee has scheduled six debates, four of which come before the first contests — the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 1 and New Hampshire primary on Feb. 9.

On the Republican side, Mr. Trump leads in Iowa at 29%, up from 17% in July. Mr. Carson is next, at 22%, with Jeb Bush in third at 6%. Mr. Walker has faded to 5%, down from 19% in July. In New Hampshire, Mr. Trump has 29%, with Ohio Gov. John Kasich in second with 12% and Mr. Carson at 11%.

The Iowa poll was conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 2 of 998 registered voters overall. Of those, 390 were potential GOP caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/- five percentage points, and 345 were potential Democratic caucus-goers, with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 points. The New Hampshire poll was conducted Aug. 26 to Sept. 2 of 966 registered voters. Of those,  413 were potential GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 points, and 356 were potential Democratic primary voters, representing a margin of error of +/- 5.2 points.


 

______________________________________________________



Title: Small turnout for Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 10, 2015, 10:34:16 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/10/hillary-clinton-speaks-to-mostly-empty-hall-in-columbus-ohio/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Perry drops out!!!!
Post by: ppulatie on September 11, 2015, 02:23:50 PM
First one gone!!!!!

Rick Perry drops out.  The smart glasses failed him!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 12, 2015, 08:09:06 AM
Well, arguably Gilmore is the first, though he did not self-select, he was pushed by CNN not including him in the upcoming debate.

.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Jeb out next? Biden in?
Post by: DougMacG on September 13, 2015, 10:00:27 AM
For a bit of fun, predictions on the first five candidates to drop out?

Since this post, Rich Perry is out and Scott Walker is scaling back to just Iowa and South Carolina.  The drive from Madison to Dubuque costs about $10 so there is no urgency for walker to drop out except to save face.

What happens to this race if Jeb drops out?  One thing I noticed on the Colbert clip is that he doesn't seem to be enjoying this process.  He has a good message on economics but shows no fire in the belly and has steadfastly refused to address his weaknesses and blind spots.  The Jeb candidacy IS the rationale for the Trump phenomenon.  He has  refused to acknowledge any aspect of the immigration problem that Trump attacked head on.  Jeb came out with a great tax plan this past week, yet his support of it conveyed none of the excitement of the 4 good economists who wrote it.  Jeb will either up his game, which he doesn't seem capable of, or drop out well before the Florida primary where he is not going to let his political career end by taking 3rd place or worse at home.

Of the major state, 2 term Governors, that leaves Kasich, also not exactly Mr. Excitement.

All of those out of the top ten need to either start gaining traction or should drop.  OTOH, folks like Huckabee, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham love to be seen and heard for as long as they can and the noise in the room keeps others from being heard.
---------------------------------------------

Joe Biden.  When you face a loss like he just did, you sit and grieve and then you decide what you want to do with the rest of your life.  Biden will announce in 2 months, in time to be on the Des Moines Democrat debate stage Nov 14 and on the ballots in 50 states and he will win the nomination.  His running mate will be Elizabeth Warren.  The Biden choice is really up to Valerie Jarrett and Obama.  If they tell old Joe he has the 100% backing of the Obama machine, Joe is in and instantly the frontrunner. If Hillary drops out and jumps on board, the war in the Dem party is over. The right had better get focused on the wrongness of the Obama policies, not just the character defects of one presumed candidate.

-------------------------------------------

Sean Trende of RCP has the math on winning after a two term Presidency.  Call this election gift wrapped for the Republicans - unless they don't nominate the best Republican.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 13, 2015, 10:38:31 AM
If you accept that Wall Street and Big Money are behind all the political manuevering, then here is something to consider from Sundance at Conservative Treehouse.

1. Wall Street and Big Money are pulling the strings, along with groups like the COC.

2. The plan was to get Jeb into the presidency, and if not him, settle for Hillary.  (They are one and the same.)

3. Bush is failing because of Trump. They must get Trump out if they can.

4. If they cannot get Trump out and he proves inevitable, then they must get Hillary out because Trump would take her out as well.

5. This leads to the movement to get Biden in, with Warren as VP. It  is believed that this could thwart Trump.

Of course, if you do not believe that our politics is manipulated, then all of this means nothing.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 13, 2015, 09:19:37 PM
If you accept that Wall Street and Big Money are behind all the political manuevering, then here is something to consider from Sundance at Conservative Treehouse.
1. Wall Street and Big Money are pulling the strings, along with groups like the COC.
2. The plan was to get Jeb into the presidency, and if not him, settle for Hillary.  (They are one and the same.)
3. Bush is failing because of Trump. They must get Trump out if they can.
4. If they cannot get Trump out and he proves inevitable, then they must get Hillary out because Trump would take her out as well.
5. This leads to the movement to get Biden in, with Warren as VP. It  is believed that this could thwart Trump.
Of course, if you do not believe that our politics is manipulated, then all of this means nothing.

My 2 cents on that. 
Jeb isn't the same as Hillary.  He is wrong on two issues; she is wrong on everything.
Groups and terms like The Establishment, Chamber of Commerce, Wall Street, Big Money, RINOs, have been around for a long time, formerly known as Rockefeller Republicans and Country Club Republicans. They are a legitimate, competing faction, by whatever name they go by or that we call them.  They need to be defeated in the primaries without burning the bridge to win their vote and turnout in the general election.  All out war within the party filled with irreparable personal hatred isn't the answer, but winning somehow is.  Ronald Reagan won 93 states without ever being RINO establishment.  In 1980, defeated Republican moderate John Anderson ran as an independent, won 6.6% of the vote,  6 million votes, and Reagan still carried over 50% of the vote and won 44 states. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1980   In Florida in 2010, just ten years after the 2000 deadlock/recount fiasco, moderate Republican Charlie Crist, a sitting Governor, lost the primary and stayed in the race as an independent, but Rubio carried Florida by a million votes.  These people can be beat without all the bravado and name calling.

They talk about Hillary's (paid) organization on the ground now and Bernie Sanders has almost none of it and is leading her.  In the end it is the votes, one per person, not money or power. We have a Governor who bought his way in.  The Dayton family started Target, (ex) wife, largest contributor, is a Rockefeller, not from here.  He has zero charisma, is a drug addict, but still - he got the votes.  Sometimes the big money backfires.  Trump is leading now I think with his media personality, not his money.  There are plenty of examples of big money and big organizations failing when the candidate doesn't connect with the people.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 13, 2015, 09:28:34 PM
"Sean Trende of RCP has the math on winning after a two term Presidency.  Call this election gift wrapped for the Republicans - unless they don't nominate the best Republican."

Correction.  Author is: Jeffrey H. Anderson.    Here is the link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/09/11/what_will_obamas_unpopularity_mean_for_2016_128046.html

Very well researched article.  Democrats have huge odds to overcome just based on Obama's job disapproval rating.
Title: Erickson: Planned Parenthood Funding Issue Exposes Republican Corruption...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 14, 2015, 12:42:53 PM
It’s Not About a Shutdown

Erick Erickson - RedState.com

“This is a fight on principle over whether the Republican Party should stand by and let our tax dollars be used to subsidize the American Mengeles of Planned Parenthood or not.”

Republican Leaders and their friends in the Circle of Jerks that make up the Washington Press Corps are pushing a “there they go again” line against conservatives fighting to defund Planned Parenthood.

They are making this about Ted Cruz, blaming Cruz. They fear Ted Cruz. They know he is on a pretty good course toward the nomination. They have to make it about him. This is cynical Washington politics at its best.

In fact, the Washington political elite and the Circle of Jerks cannot contemplate what is happening. They do not relate to people who stand on principle. In Washington, everything and everyone is supposed to have a price. They should be able to buy off pro-life voters as they’ve done with some of the groups.

My Comment: (Which is EXACTLY why Washington insiders FEAR Donald Trump.  He doesn't have a price, and cannot be bought.)

Pay attention over the next two weeks. Notice which pro-life groups come out strongly and uncompromisingly in favor of defunding Planned Parenthood and those that stay quiet or offer only platitudes.

Children in the United States of America are being cut up and sold for scrap. That Republicans in Washington think they can excuse their way out of a fight says too much damning about them. This is not a Ted Cruz fight. This is not a Mike Lee fight. This is not a Jim Bridenstine or Jim Jordan or Tim Huelskamp fight.

This is a fight on principle over whether the Republican Party should stand by and let our tax dollars be used to subsidize the American Mengeles of Planned Parenthood or not. This is a fight about whether our tax dollars should be used to subsidize harvesting children’s brains and hearts and lungs and livers.

This is not a fight about politics. This is a fight about life and death. That Washington Republicans refuse to see that explains why they’re getting their butts kicked by a guy like Donald Trump. Their cynicism will be their death, even as they try to keep the death train rolling for Planned Parenthood.

Pay attention. Look at which pro-life groups are standing up and which are sitting in Mitch McConnell’s office.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 16, 2015, 09:57:16 AM
I follow the belief that the GOPe is manipulating the nomination process toward Bush, as I have mentioned several times. Conservative Treehouse has written another good  article about the process, but it is a bit complicated to get the first time through. So I will summarize.

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/09/16/the-modified-gope-strategy-road-map-the-full-monte/ (http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2015/09/16/the-modified-gope-strategy-road-map-the-full-monte/)

The beginning of the plot:

1. 2014 Internal Polling by the RNC showed Bush with no more than 15% - 20% support. People did not want another Bush presidency. (Romney was at 25-30% at a similar point.) Bush could not win in a fair fight with those numbers.  How to compensate? Change the rules.

2. First change - Any Primary held prior to Mar 15, would have proportional delegates assigned. What this meant is for a winner take all, 50% plus 1 had to be achieved. If under 50%, the delegates would be split equally.

This was a very important change. Upstart candidates who win in the early primaries would be limited in the delegates that they could receive. Additionally, since most were limited in campaign funds, it made the gathering of delegates and primary operations after Mar 15 much more difficult. So, the more candidates in the early stages, the greater the negative impact on the Upstart Candidate.

3. Starting Mar 15, the Primaries were winner take all, even if they won with 20% of the vote. The reason for this approach was that the early upstart candidates that survived would not have the campaign funds to continue running in all states, so they were at a distinct disadvantage.

4. The final part of the plan was that in previous years, to be nominated, a candidate needed to win 5 primaries. This was changed to 8 primaries. So if a candidate has won 7 primaries, each with 95% of the vote, they cannot be placed into nomination at the convention. Their delegates are then free to go wherever.

Looking at this scenario in 2014, it is easy to see that the person who would most benefit from this strategy was Bush. He had the money commitments, the name recognition, and could run in all primary states. The "other" potential candidates could not run for the full time, so even if Bush got only a total of 30% of the support, he could win the nomination and run against Hillary, and of which it was expected that he would beat.

Enter Trump.

Trump screwed up everything by his entry into the field. He had the money to go the full route to the convention. He was not beholden to the special interests. Trump could screw up everything planned.

This is why you are seeing every action taken, all the pundits, the writers, and even the "vote splitter" candidates attacking Trump. He must be taken out for Bush to win.

What happens if Trump is taken out? That is the easy answer.

Carson becomes the new spoiler. But Carson is actually pretty easy to take out. Again, money is a problem, and several of his views are such that a GOPe attack could render Carson gone. Then it goes to Cruz.

Cruz is even easier to go after. He will be hit as the favorite of the Tea Party, and we see how that goes. Cruz will be demonized until he becomes the nightmare of little children across the country.

Is the GOPe and the Wall Street money capable of being this devious? Absolutely so. And they will do it to get their man into the Presidency. After all, it is all about the money and power.

But where the GOPe is making their mistake is in voter turnout. In 2012, Romney had at least a 4% less turnout than from before. This was in large part the Evangicals, who would not vote for a Mormon. This time, what happens:

1. Those going with Trump are much more likely to sit out. They support Trump because they have been betrayed by the GOP too many times. They support the Trump position on immigration and with the others, even Carson, Amnesty is their accepted position. The Trump voters  sitting out will throw the election to Hillary by itself.

2. The Carson voters remain to be seen with what will happen. Many may sit out. It just depends upon how much of a conviction they have.

3. Cruz and the Tea Party. The Cruz supporters here could sit out in large numbers as well, just adding to the severity of the loss to Hillary.

Does the GOPe, Chamber of Commerce and others care? No, because with Hillary or Bush, the end result is just about the same.
Title: Newt on the debate tonight
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 16, 2015, 10:02:45 AM
Trump, Carson and the Reagan Library Debate
Originally published at the Washington Times

The big debate Wednesday night at the Reagan Library really centers around two candidates.

If Donald Trump was the surprise focus of the first debate, it was because no one three months ago would have predicted that he would be polling ahead of every other candidate.

Now the focus will widen because Dr. Ben Carson is joining Trump in the extraordinary group of candidates we never expected to be this dominant.

In the new CBS News poll out this week, Donald Trump is at 27 percent with Dr. Carson having risen from 6 percent in August to 23 percent today. Governor Jeb Bush is a distant third at 6 percent. The most recent Iowa poll had Trump at 29 percent, Carson at 25 percent, and Senator Ted Cruz a distant third at 10 percent.
When two candidates are above 50% and the rest of the field is far behind, the focus of the debate is inevitably on these two.

The analysts are predicting the focus will be attacks on Trump. Between the media and a number of other candidates, there are plenty of folks lining up to pile on "the Donald."

An anti-Trump focus may simply shift votes to Carson, however, and turn him into the new frontrunner.

The contrast in style between the two leading candidates could not be greater. Trump is loud, constantly moving, permanently on offense, and enthusiastic about making lavish claims. Carson is quiet, calm, centered and very hard to rattle.

What the political media and consultants have not yet seemed to fully digest is that both of these men have been remarkably successful people prior to their runs for president.

Trump got his first cover of Time Magazine in 1989. He has owned or managed office buildings, hotels, golf courses, restaurants, the Miss Universe pageant, a line of clothing, and a very popular television show. He is used to complexity, negotiations, and stress. And as this video of Trump on Oprah Winfrey more than 25 years ago proves, he has been thinking about public policy for a long time.

Carson became the youngest department head in the history Johns Hopkins Hospital at 33 years of age. In 1987, he led a 70-person operating team for 22 hours and separated conjoined twins for the first time in history. In 2009, Cuba Gooding, Jr. played Ben Carson in a movie (Gifted Hands) about his life and achievements. Carson learned to make decisions under stress, while exhausted, in a very different world than any elected official I have met except for former Senate Majority Leader Dr. Bill Frist, who was himself a heart and lung transplant specialist.

These are serious, successful, complex, and accomplished people.

Anyone expecting them to disintegrate or, as some analysts like to say, "have the bubble burst" is in for a very long wait.

It is a long way to the nomination and there is plenty of time for others to gain support and compete.

Wednesday night's debate is important, however, because it is the first real test in which Trump will have a peer who is as nontraditional, as confident, and as articulate as he is.

Your Friend,
Newt
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 16, 2015, 06:31:37 PM
Watching the Beat up on Trump debate. Pure take down of him.

Best joke......Carly will not speak with Putin. She will give him the silent treatment. Put him on a No Sex Time Out.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 16, 2015, 06:39:54 PM
Trump:  Carly would never run one of my companies.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 16, 2015, 06:56:57 PM
Thoughts:

Christie, Carly, Trump and Cruz are doing really good. I expect that Carly will rise, as will Christie. Cruz, only his current supporters will continue, unless Trump or Carson go to the wayside.

Carson is "lost"...his comment about americans not wanting to work will hurt.  BTW, I have to go back and listen to Carson again. Each time he speaks, I fall asleep.

Bush appears to be a bust..............he is not getting anything out of this. Rubio? Sounds good, but not going anywhere.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 16, 2015, 07:05:19 PM
Oh crap............Jeb says his advisors will be those who helped 41 and 43.

I smell toast...burning...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 16, 2015, 09:33:03 PM
Several strong performances tonight.

It may be that when we look back at tonight amongst the things that will be said will be that this was the night that Trump peaked.

A few snap impressions in no particular order:

Carly:  A very strong night with several home runs-- the passion she brought to her statement on Planned Parenthood was as potent as it was unexpected-- her press, polls, and money likely to respond pretty strongly;

Christie: Very strong night, more than once he executed really nice pivots; first time I have found him likable-- not sure what effect though on his polls or money, though likely to get something of a bump in ;

Paul: Started out pretty weak, but late in the night got in some good entries on the Middle East;

Huckabee:  Surprised me with the quality of his defense of the KY court clerk and statement of the issues involved; not his only strong statement during the night but some of his replies struck me was blowhard political BS;

Walker:  a better night, but mostly he was outshone

Carson:  I continue to like the man a lot and he certainly had a number of fine moments, but there were also a few where I have like more substance

Jeb:  A better performance but to my eye the apparent weaknesses remain

Rubio:  Several superb answers of foreign affairs stuff, the man has genuine strength here and presents it well; I thought he also did well on several other issues as well.  Not sure how much press, polls, and money he will get out of it, but I certainly think respect for him will greatly increase.  At the very least he remains a genuine player in the race.

Trump:  Due to the first question, the first many minutes of the debate where a food fight between Trump and most everyone there.  Eventually things turned to content and Donald had a lot less to say, particularly when it got to the Middle East.  Carly hit him some solid shots between the eyes here.  I thought his statements on immigration did a very good job of smoothing some previously present rough edges.  My wife's pity comment "He started looking like a one trick pony of one liners."

Kasich: Very much a "Compassionate Conservative" but had a number of serious grown up contributions to the conversation.   I can imagine his standing in New Hampshire to be improved.

Cruz:  Had a number of good moments, (including some really good ones on legal issues but I suspect they will go over most people's heads) FWIW my sense is that he will maintain where he is in the running. 
Title: Performance art is no way to assess a potential President...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 17, 2015, 06:46:55 AM
Of course - Dan Calabrese is correct here.  Unfortunately, precious few Americans will ever take the time to research the candidates' positions themselves, and the ONLY impressions they get of these candidates are what they see during these debates, and what is then said about them by the media.

Most American voters are incredibly lazy and ignorant.  That's just a sad fact.

Debates are no way to assess a potential President

By Dan Calabrese - Thursday, September 17, 2015.

I realize how furiously I'm swimming against the tide here, but I'll give it a shot anyway. Let's start with a fact that has nothing to do with what happened last night on CNN, or what happened a month ago on Fox News: You can tell pretty much everything you need to know about every presidential candidate by spending a few hours on Google.

You can look up their policy positions and their backgrounds. You can find video clips of them speaking. You can find articles by their critics containing lots of arguments against them. You can do this and, if you're a serious voter, you should do this.

And if you do, then nothing you see in a media-contrived "debate" should change the assessment you arrived at as a result of your own research. You should not reject a candidate who has all the attributes you're looking for because he "looked small" on stage (whatever that means) or because he "disappeared for 45 minutes at a time" or because he said "oops".

Your initial research pertains to the actual policy positions and governing capabilities of a prospective president of the United States. Stuff that matters. Stuff that reflects what this person might do in office, and how well that person might do it.
What happens on stage at a media-contrived "debate" allows you to assess that person's skill in the realm of performance art, which apparently is quite fascinating to Americans, but is almost completely irrelevant to the attributes required to be a good president.

Americans are drawn for reasons unknown to very big televised events. Baseball fans are drawn to the World Series. Football fans are drawn to the Super Bowl. Some people like American Idol and Dancing With the Stars for reasons that I cannot explain to you. And apparently the run-of-the-mill political junkie likes to watch these debates - assessing moment-by-moment who did well, who uncorked a memorable line and who "moved the needle" or some such thing.

This has become relevant in the parlance of American politics precisely because the hardest thing about running for president is not to become qualified or to develop solid positions. It's to get people's attention. And the debate serves as an opportunity for candidates to get your attention because the media don't cover them unless they're insulting another candidate's face or doing some other thing deemed newsworthy by the guardians of the First Amendment - the very same people asking the questions at these reality shows for political junkies.

And because the only value of the debate is to provide attention for candidates who are otherwise not getting it - even though they may very well deserve to get it - the goal of every candidate is to do something that makes you remember them, which is understandable but again is completely irrelevant to the challenges inherent to the presidency.

Ultimately, the importance of the debates represents a failure of the electorate. Failing to do your homework, then sitting down to watch this two-hour Vaudeville act and making up your mind on that basis, reveals you to be an unserious voter. And if you want to watch it for the purpose of providing your own on-the-spot analysis, that's fine, but you too are providing something more akin to a theater review than you are a serious assessment of who would make the best president.

I know this is what none of you want to hear because everyone wants to talk this morning about who did well, who helped themselves, who landed a blow, etc. Do what you want. None of it is really important.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 17, 2015, 09:06:46 AM
Forget about who one. How did last night affect the Nomination process?

1. The GOPe needed to score a knockdown of Donald to blunt his support. Even with Tapper leading the charge against Donald, it failed. Trump supporters will stay with him. He might not pick up support, but he should not lose any. As to the nomination, nothing changes. Note: The audience was clearly against him all night. To be expected since the goal was to knockdown Trump.

2. Carson was clearly the loser. He looked and acted like he had taken a dose of downers prior to going on stage. Worst for him was his comment about 9-11 and that he would not have attacked Afghanistan, but would have used the "bully pulpit". Carson will lose support, but this will have little effect on the nomination process and him being a vote splitter.

3. Fiorina is clearly the winner. She should pick up much of the support that Carson loses. However, some of the enthusiasm could be blunted as a result of her answer to Putin. She would ignore him and start arming every state around Russia. With Fiorina, she sounds more and more hawk. She takes over the splitter position from Carson.

4. Bush did nothing to help his game. He may slow or cease dropping in support, but other than that, nothing. Donors who were in a panic before, and even worse now. Expect them to begin deserting Bush.

5. Rubio helped his case and should pick up a bit of support from Carson and the dwarfs. Expect Bush money to flow to him. He now becomes the GOPe alternative to Bush, and if Bush continues to fall, then the push for Rubio begins in earnest.

6. Cruz, neither good or bad. He was left out of most things, but the few times he did speak, it was decent. Not yet his time. Maybe VP with Trump or SCOTUS.

7. Christie did very good. He might pick up a bit of support, but he can't win.

8. The others are just out in the cold.

For the convention nomination, things do not change. Trump remains the elephant because he has loyal support, and can win the 8 states needed to be put into nomination status. Bush still has the money, but his falling status poses major concerns for the GOPe. With all the candidates still running, Bush would appear to not be able to stem Trump.

Carly now becomes the spoiler factor if she can get the support. But she remains an enigma. When she talks, she reminds me of a pissed off ex-wife. More important, she is in favor of Cap and Trade, a Global Warming partisan, Amnesty H1B supporter, and has tax issues.

Essentially, unless something occurs otherwise, Trump has the nomination to win or lose. No one else can disable Trump otherwise.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 17, 2015, 09:42:41 AM
Forget about who one. (sic  :lol: ) How did last night affect the Nomination process?

1. The GOPe needed to score a knockdown of Donald to blunt his support. Even with Tapper leading the charge against Donald, it failed. Trump supporters will stay with him. He might not pick up support, but he should not lose any.

MD:  Trump has benefitted from a positive feedback loop, one which IMHO may have peaked last night.  He looked over his head on the discussions of the Middle East and IMHO his response to the question about Putin was quite vacuous.

2. Carson was clearly the loser. He looked and acted like he had taken a dose of downers prior to going on stage. Worst for him was his comment about 9-11 and that he would not have attacked Afghanistan, but would have used the "bully pulpit". Carson will lose support, but this will have little effect on the nomination process and him being a vote splitter.

MD:  Agreed, not a good night for Dr. Ben.  I continue to like him, but I'm looking elsewhere at the moment.  Christie dinged him well on the lack of response to 911.

3. Fiorina is clearly the winner. She should pick up much of the support that Carson loses. However, some of the enthusiasm could be blunted as a result of her answer to Putin. She would ignore him and start arming every state around Russia. With Fiorina, she sounds more and more hawk. She takes over the splitter position from Carson.

Splitter?  I don't think so-- As they say, she is in it to win it.  Very strong night for her last night on many levels.

4. Bush did nothing to help his game. He may slow or cease dropping in support, but other than that, nothing. Donors who were in a panic before, and even worse now. Expect them to begin deserting Bush.

MD:  Not quite that bad, but not enough I suspect.

5. Rubio helped his case and should pick up a bit of support from Carson and the dwarfs. Expect Bush money to flow to him. He now becomes the GOPe alternative to Bush, and if Bush continues to fall, then the push for Rubio begins in earnest.

MD:  Excellent night for Rubio.  He will get increased attention and respect and is well-positioned to get his campaign moving.

6. Cruz, neither good or bad. He was left out of most things, but the few times he did speak, it was decent. Not yet his time. Maybe VP with Trump or SCOTUS.

MD:  or Attorney General?   If Trump implodes, which does strike me as possible, he could surprise to the upside.

7. Christie did very good. He might pick up a bit of support, but he can't win.

MD:  You might be right, but he too is going to be getting a lot more attention and respect.  Let's see what he does with it.

8. The others are just out in the cold.

Carly now becomes the spoiler factor if she can get the support. But she remains an enigma. When she talks, she reminds me of a pissed off ex-wife. More important, she is in favor of Cap and Trade, a Global Warming partisan, Amnesty H1B supporter, and has tax issues.

MD:  I will be looking out for these issues.

Essentially, unless something occurs otherwise, Trump has the nomination to win or lose. No one else can disable Trump otherwise.

MD:  I know you really like Trump, but I agree, he may well turn out to be his own worst enemy.
Title: WSJ:
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 17, 2015, 11:10:18 AM
Naturally, no presidential debate would be complete without some rank dishonesty. This includes Mr. Trump’s insistence that he didn’t pursue casino-gambling in Miami. You can look that one up on Google.

That was surpassed only by Senator Ted Cruz’s claim that he somehow opposed the nomination of John Roberts for the Supreme Court. If Mr. Cruz had some inner doubt about the Roberts selection in 2005, he didn’t advertise it at the time as far as we can find. The shameless rewriting of history to serve his latest political needs is becoming a Cruz hallmark.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 17, 2015, 11:30:15 AM
This is a "technical" distinction on the casino. It can be interpreted in two different ways.

1. The casino would be built on Seminole tribal land. Therefore, it is not technically Florida.

2. The tribal issue is immaterial.

Who knows?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 17, 2015, 03:02:57 PM
"That was surpassed only by Senator Ted Cruz’s claim that he somehow opposed the nomination of John Roberts for the Supreme Court. If Mr. Cruz had some inner doubt about the Roberts selection in 2005, he didn’t advertise it at the time as far as we can find. The shameless rewriting of history to serve his latest political needs is becoming a Cruz hallmark."

Cruz pushed the for other guy (over Roberts) for Bush to nominate.  Then he supported confirmation of Roberts (over voting him down).   The underlying point is important; Cruz is saying he would appoint proven constitutionalists to the Court, and that Pres. Bush made a mistake.  But the confusion didn't play well.

The Rand Paul - Christy argument over pot was similar.  They kept muddying the question between how each feels about the underlying issue with what to do with the fact that these state laws are in conflict with existing federal law.  Rand Paul had it right but I don't think that came across well either.

40% of the questions were about Trump.  The rest were mostly about Bush's family and what do you think of anything controversial the others have said.  It was funny to  agreement break out in the climate 'skeptic' discussion.  At least two said, I like what Marco said.

No one won the early debate.  Some said Graham won; some said Santorum won.  No one won.

Rubio's vision of landing Air Force One in a free Cuba was a key moment, symbolizing the contrast between accommodating tyranny and advancing freedom.

I can't remember the details, but some controversial group endorsed Reagan and he survived it saying their endorsement of him did not constitute him endorsing them.  Same goes for Marco Rubio and the so-called GOPe.  Rubio might be as good of a find that the centrists will accept that can win.  That does not make him part of the 'establishment'. He is much closer to Reagan than he is to Rove, McConnell, Boehner.  PP may be right that establishment money and support intended for Bush will move to Rubio, but that does not make him beholden to them.  If he wins, he won't be someone's puppet; he will be President of the US and leader of the free world.  His debt and gratitude will be to the American people, not the donors.  His promise to them is simply to do his best.  And he would be the best advocate for freedom the world has had in a very long time.  (MHO)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 17, 2015, 03:36:46 PM
Doug,

Money does not buy influence with Rubio? I will believe it when I see it. The Chamber of Commerce, Rove and others will prevail.

And I guess Amnesty becomes the new normal.

BTW, if it is Rubio, expect Biden to win if he runs. Too many people will go back on the sidelines and not vote for the GOP candidate.
Title: It's Not the Job of Republicans to "Correct" People Who Hate Obama...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 18, 2015, 10:35:45 AM
IT'S NOT THE JOB OF REPUBLICANS TO "CORRECT" PEOPLE WHO HATE OBAMA

Since when is it the job of Republicans to defend Obama?

September 18, 2015  Daniel Greenfield   


Recently MoveOn, an organization close to Obama, accused senators opposed to Iran getting nukes of being traitors. It also attacked the Jewish Schumer by claiming, "We don't need another Lieberman in the Senate." (It might be gratifying if all the liberals calling out Ann Coulter's Tweets were as willing to call out blatant anti-Semitism by one of their own organizations.)

I don't recall Obama condemning MoveOn. Instead he added to the chorus by accusing opponents of being behind the Iraq War.

Obama plays dirty. But that's politics. What's obnoxious is when the media cheers on Obama and the left for ugly tactics and then whines when Scott Walker won't praise Obama and when Trump won't defend Obama.

Since when is it the job of Republicans to defend Obama?

We've thrown out civility and all of the rules a while back. Obama began his campaign with a planted viral video accusing Hillary Clinton of being 1984's Big Brother. Hillary responded by having her people accuse Obama of being a Muslim.

Let's recall that Hillary pal Sidney Blumenthal, who invented the term "vast right-wing conspiracy" was pushing material from conservative sites accusing Obama of the same things that they now find unacceptable.

That kind of stuff doesn't get talked about much. But the media is all outraged because Trump won't interrupt his campaign to defend Obama against charges that he's a Muslim.

That's not Trump's job. It's Obama's job to defend himself against accusations. Maybe if he showed some civility in his political conflicts, he would be entitled to expect some civility from Republicans. But this is the guy whose proxies constantly accuse critics of being racists or traitors or warmongers.

Republicans should make it clear that it's not their job to defend a nasty campaigner like Obama against the hostile atmosphere his political tactics have created. They are here to campaign for themselves and their party.

Obama already has numerous political organizations formed to promote his agenda, not to mention a vast network of leftist non-profits and the entire media. If they can't protect him against the anger of the American people, maybe he should just recognize that he is part of the problem.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 18, 2015, 11:31:18 AM
With both Trump and Walker, it is all part of the plan to take them down. And with Trump by the D's, media and the GOP.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 18, 2015, 12:22:30 PM
Interesting Poll of Debate Watchers taken yesterday using Reps who watched the debate.

Both Carly and Trump increased their support. Carson lost support. His loss was to Carly's gain.

4.4 Margin of Error

http://morningconsucom/2015/09/poll-fiorina-wins-debate-trump-still-leads/lt. (http://morningconsucom/2015/09/poll-fiorina-wins-debate-trump-still-leads/lt.)
Title: Hillary started the Kenyan meme
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 18, 2015, 07:34:47 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2008/02/obama-slams-smear-photo-008667
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 19, 2015, 09:19:57 AM
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/09/the-week-in-pictures-fiorina-trumps-edition.php
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Republican Debate 2, CNN, full video
Post by: DougMacG on September 20, 2015, 07:53:33 AM
A little late, but I finally took the time to watch the full video.  At 3 hours, it was long to watch when I had already heard most of it on the radio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WwzXkJd8aY

Some additional observations:

They all were winners in the eye of the beholder; every candidate played pretty well to their own strengths and therefore mostly pleased their own supporters.  In another sense, since almost everyone is really undecided, all the subtleties matter.

Even though all the questions were designed to pin down top candidates on their biggest weaknesses, they missed doing that on all counts, in my view.  Trump's blind spot to me is the Kelo/ takings question and no one pressed that on him except Rand Paul,  and Trump wasn't pressed to acknowledge or answer it.  For Fiorina, not the difficulties at HP but the tripling of her own salary during that time, it didn't come up  Rubio wasn't truly challenged on his weakness.  That will come when he is the frontrunner.

Rubio and Fiorina looked ready on national security and foreign policy.  Others leave open the question of being ready on day one. 

Bush didn't present himself that well, about equal to his poll numbers, but currently has perhaps the best economic plan and message, grow the economy and right to rise.  I say right message, wrong messenger.  I don't expect him to go the distance.

Huckabee looked good and touted the flat tax but didn't even mention that it requires repeal of the income tax amendment in order to not become one more way to take more from us and grow government even though that isn't his intention.  Carson said he was looking at all of that in addition to the flat tax with no details.  On another topic, Fiorina mis-spoke on how many states it takes to amend the constitution.  She said 2/3rds of the states, when it is 2/3rds in the House and Senate and 3/4ths of the state legislatures.  That is a big distinction because it means amendment can't be done without wide support in both parties.  It can't be done for things like repealing the income tax in our lifetime much less in the immediate term.  Therefore that tax plan is not a serious plan for day one or year 4.  Just bloviating.

40% of the questions were in some way about Trump.  Missed on radio and punditry were the visuals of Trump standing in the center of the stage and camera with expressions and gestures all the way through as if he was presiding over the meeting and challenging his subordinates.  That played fine I'm sure  to his strategy and supporters. He did so-so in terms of the substance of answering the obvious attempt to expose the frontrunner.  I agree with those who think this debate marks the peak of his candidacy.  He isn't going to either collapse or gain any further ground based on momentum or bandwagon.  His support will narrow to his fit with the electorate which is still significant.

Trump's strategy was to keep telling himself to be humble, hence the joke about his secret service handle.  But that isn't him and it isn't what got him here. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 20, 2015, 08:15:00 AM
Recent Poll results after the debate

CNN/ORC

Trump: 24%
Fiorina: 15%
Carson: 14%
Rubio: 11%
Bush: 9%
Walker < .5%


NBC

Trump: 29%
Fiorina: 14%
Carson: 11%
Rubio: 7%
Bush: 8%
Walker 3%

The NBC poll was SurveyMonkey, which is supposed to be a "good" online designed poll. CNN is..............CNN.

Can't tell too much more than we already know from this. Carly did well and increased her support. Carson took a negative, and Trump suffered a bit, but was not knocked out.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 20, 2015, 10:24:52 AM
Recent Poll results after the debate
CNN/ORC
Trump: 24%
Fiorina: 15%
Carson: 14%
Rubio: 11%
Bush: 9%
Walker < .5%   ...

The outsiders hold all of the top 3 places and one of them may win.  Trump's upward momentum is stopped, but first by a lot is still a good position in a crowded field.  The other question is who is winning among the Senators and Governors in case the outsiders fizzle (as expected) as we get deeper in the process.  As a Rubio fan, I like the slow speed that he is moving up, gradually impressing almost everyone who hears him.  He is in a much better position than Bush and Walker, and most of the others aren't getting traction either.  I hope he is ready for when the scrutiny is all aimed at him. 

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 21, 2015, 09:41:04 AM
The new  Zogby poll is out, done after the last debate. In that debate, Zogby said he lost. Oops...........his polls don't indicate that.

Interesting what has been going on with the media and pundits after the debate. Media attacks on Trump are even stronger than before. It is WWF take sown time for him, but it does not appear to be working. Carson has had a few more attacks now against him, most likely the result of his poor showing in the debate. It is likely the thought that he has lost his opportunity and now it is time to push someone else. That else is Snarly Fiorina.

Rove has been on pushing Snarly. It is his antidote to Trump, and then he can turn on Snarly to get back to either Bush or Rubio.


http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?action=post;topic=2419.350;num_replies=397 (http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?action=post;topic=2419.350;num_replies=397)

Zogby Poll: Trump Widens Lead After GOP Debate

Real estate mogul Trump has widened his lead to 20 points in a brand new Zogby Analytics poll taken after the second Republican presidential debate. The new poll of 405 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, conducted September 18-19, shows Mr. Trump with 33% (up 2 points from his pre-debate 31%). In second place is neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson who actually dropped 3 points to 13%. Former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, widely considered to be the big winner in the debate, moved up from just 2% last week to 7% and fourth place in the new poll – just 2 points behind former Florida Governor Jeb Bush’s 9% (which is exactly where he was last week).

Texas Senator Ted Cruz moves up a point to 5%, followed by Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Ohio Governor John Kasich all tied at 4%. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who by many accounts, had a good debate night, stayed at 3%.

The biggest losers in the post-debate poll – besides Dr. Carson’s drop – were Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who fell from 5% to 2% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who polled 2% (down from 4%).

Mr. Trump’s lead is across the board, among most major sub-groups – 36% among men, 30% with women, 30% Republicans, 39% independents, 29% moderates, and 31% conservatives.

Dr. Carson’s best showings were among Republicans 14%, and conservatives 16%. Mrs. Fiorina did better among men (9%) than women (5%) and Republicans 8% than independents (5%). Mr. Bush scored 10% with women, 8% with men, 12% moderates, but just 6% among conservatives.

The poll was conducted in the middle of controversies regarding negative attitudes toward Muslims expressed by both Mr. Trump and Dr. Carson. Mrs. Fiorina gained the most traction from the debate but no one besides Mr. Trump has broken away from the pack.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 21, 2015, 09:48:14 AM
Why Don't the Candidates Ever Talk About Money?
By Larry Kudlow - September 19, 2015

While there were some great moments in the latest GOP debate, and some terrific individual performances -- Carly Fiorina seemed to grab all the buzz in the aftermath -- one thing that barely came up was the economy. It was very much like the first debate.

The day after the candidates faced off, Fed chair Janet Yellen announced a stand-pat, no-interest-rate-liftoff policy. Now, I don't expect presidential candidates to be Fed watchers. But Yellen did raise the issue of a still-soft economy, despite all the QE and zero-interest-rate policies. And I think Yellen was right. There will be a time to normalize Fed target rates. But not yet.

That said, it would have been a good thing if any of the candidates talked about our money. A strong and steady dollar -- the world's unit of account (in theory) -- is pro-growth, as we saw in the '60s, '80s, and '90s. A collapsing greenback smothers growth, as we saw in the 2000s.

I would have loved to have seen one or more of the candidates talk about a strong dollar, a rules-based Fed policy and international monetary coordination. Alas, it was not to be. Maybe we'll hear about the dollar at the CNBC debate on Oct. 28. But an opportunity was missed on Sept. 16.

Interestingly, on the day of the debate, the Census Bureau revealed another round of stagnating incomes for the middle class. But the words "middle class" and "economic growth" were mentioned by the GOP debaters only four or five times, according to AEI economist Jim Pethokoukis. He laments that Republicans have been missing great opportunities to show a modern vision about growth.

Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the director of Economics21 at the Manhattan Institute, lists a slew of important economic issues that weren't addressed at the debate, including the minimum wage, regulatory policy, education and alternatives to Obamacare. There were brief mentions of tax policy, with Gov. Huckabee slipping in his fair-tax proposal and Sen. Paul touting his 14.5 percent flat tax. But there was no room for Sen. Rubio to pit his child tax credit against Jeb Bush's 20 percent corporate tax rate.

Meanwhile, Gov. Christie spent his economic time on a plea for reducing Social Security benefits. Ugh.

There also was no mention of socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, who may be the Democratic frontrunner right now. The Wall Street Journal estimates that Sanders' Greece-like spending spree would come to $18 trillion over a decade. That's pretty wild. And it gets the Democrats firmly back as the tax-and-spend party. Sanders at various times has proposed income-tax rates of 70 to 90 percent, but not one Republican blasted his tax-and-spend program at the debate.

Nor did anyone attack Hillary Clinton's proposal to double the capital-gains tax rate if the asset holding period is not long enough. Her plan is pure anti-growth and anti-risk-taking. It's just what we don't need, but no GOP debater took it on.

Jeb Bush does deserve credit for a summary statement that emphasized 4 percent economic growth. He said tax, regulatory, energy and immigration policies could generate that 4 percent and help solve bottom-fifth poverty and middle-class stagnation. He concluded, Reagan-like, that strong growth at home would revive American leadership around the world. Good for him.

But one of the reasons why the GOP base is angrily up in arms at the so-called political-class establishment is that nothing has gotten done, even with Republican majorities in the Senate and House.

I thought the House and Senate would pass a broad energy-reform bill that not only includes the XL pipeline, but removes limits on oil exports and drilling on federal land (that would lower gas prices at home and weaken Vladimir Putin's European stranglehold). But no bill emerged. A bill to repeal Obamacare with an alternative vision? Never happened. A corporate-tax-cut reform that slashes the rate, provides cash tax expensing for investment and brings more than $2 trillion back home with a repatriation plan? Never happened. Ditto for immigration reform: never happened.

And Godfather-like, the GOP now must "go to the mattresses" to stop the Iran deal, which will hand over $150 billion to a rogue country so that it can kill more American soldiers, try to extinguish Israel and increase its Middle East hegemony. Will it happen? The GOP congressional track record is not encouraging.

The strategy was to put serious bills on President Obama's desk where he could veto them if he so chose. That would have set the stage for a battle of ideas in 2016. But somehow the congressional leadership lost its way.

There's still time, however, for the GOP presidential contenders. I'd like to hear them tell us how they would solve all these problems if elected president. Doing so might rebrand the Republican Party much for the better.

Lawrence Kudlow is a senior contributor at CNBC and the host of The Larry Kudlow Show on WABC Radio. He is also a former Reagan economic advisor and a nationally syndicated columnist.
COPYRIGHT 2015 CREATORS.COM
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 21, 2015, 10:18:17 AM
Larry,

Get off your damned horse! You want to see all the friggin little details, but now is not the time. Haven't you ever taken a marketing class?

Each candidate is marketing themselves to the population. The population wants "basics", not detailed nitty gritty that they cannot understand. They are not friggin know it all elitists like you.

The greater the details, the greater the likelihood that opponents of each candidate will use the info to attack the candidate. They will misrepresent,  obfuscate, lie and do whatever else to take down the candidate.

KISS, Keep It Simple Stupid. The details don't sell.

I remember when I first got into sales. I wanted to impress my customers with my product knowledge and guess what? It did not work. I could not sell hot coffee to an eskimo. People  don't care about the details. They just want to know your objectives, see if it fits with their own objectives, and that you have a general idea of how to proceed. Nothing else. Heck, in Ludlow's case, they would not understand anyway.

Damn, I hate these fools.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 21, 2015, 02:15:16 PM
lol....National Review confirms what I and others have been saying about the GOPe rigging the primaries to stop "non-conventional" candidates.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/386913/new-rnc-rules-stymie-conservativesin-primaries-henry-olsen (http://www.nationalreview.com/article/386913/new-rnc-rules-stymie-conservativesin-primaries-henry-olsen)

From the article written in 2014:

This is a potential death sentence for the conservative candidate. Most of the highly conservative southern states traditionally hold their primaries inside of the March 1–14 window. If that occurs again in 2016, a conservative candidate will probably not gain many delegates over the establishment choice by winning the states in his base. Even if a southern state in the window allocates, as many non-southern states do, three delegates to each congressional district on a winner-take-all basis, the proportional allocation of the statewide delegates will place a conservative statewide winner at a severe disadvantage. He or she will then have to compete in less hospitable states that have the freedom to select all of their delegates by winner-take-all methods.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 21, 2015, 06:47:35 PM
A bit of "Candidate Casino":

a) IMHO Trump is less strong than he appears, the anti-Trump vote is divided amongst many and as the many become fewer, the survivors vote percentages will go up.

b) Very well positioned in this regard in Rubio, he is the second choice of many will relatively low negatives.

c) Carly is going to go under the microscope now for her time at Lucent and HP.  The ads that Boxer ran against her to good effect here in CA are likely to be resurrected.  PS:  If I have it right, Boxer's manager is highly ranked on Hillary's staff.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Walker out, etc.
Post by: DougMacG on September 22, 2015, 09:18:05 AM
It seemed to me Walker and Perry were running by looking in the rear view mirror.   Others are guilty of it too.

Perry had an amazing economic record in Texas, outperforming the whole rest of the country and he didn't mind telling us..  That didn't translate into people believing he could do the same with the country especially if he was seen as unelectable.

Walker took a strong stand against the wrongful public employee unions in Wisconsin and won.  He won 3 statewide elections in Wisconsin in the last 4 years, and he told us and told us.  Did that mean he was ready to win nationwide or even carry his own state in a national election?  No.  Breaking the federal employee unions isn't the heart of what is wrong.  Foreign policy, immigration and economic plans are.  I would say his work in Wisconsin isn't done.  Wisconsin still has big government and old economy problems, its economy has not passed up its Democrat-led neighbors yet, they don't have the tax rates of SD, TX or FL yet and Walker is still young.

Chris Christie might as well drop out too.  He is touting accomplishments in a state still burdened by big government problems and leftism.  He hasn't moved New Jersey away from voting left except for his own election.  How he would prosecute the war on terror is interesting, but doing for the country what he did for NJ is not a compelling story.

Kasich has a heck of a track record.  If this was a resume election, he would win.  It clearly isn't.

Conventional wisdom says we tend to elect Governors to be President while Senators get bogged down in wonkiness and procedural talk.  This year is different.  We have 31 (?) Republican Governors available plus some great former governors.  In the race are (or were) the Governors from the biggest states and biggest swing states possible, Ohio, Florida, Texas, even New York, plus NJ, LA and Wisc.  None are catching on so far.

The Senators running are not the type we normally think of as Senators running for Peresident.  All are junior Senators.  All are first term.  All are leaders of a movement more than they are proceduralists and compromisers from the smoke filled rooms of Washington.  Rand Paul is trying to strike a balance between libertarianism and reality, carrying the torch of the Ron Paul movement, the smallest but most energetic wing of the conservative movement.  Paul also carries the Republican torch for anti-interventionism.  (Carson leans that way too.)  Ted Cruz is closest (other than Paiul) to being a pure conservative and consitutionalist.  Rubio is the conservative leader of the pro-freedom, pro-growth wing, in my view. These are philosophical leaders, not people who made their careers in the Senate.  None of them suffer from the conventional problems of being a Senator except for the lack of executive experience and having their campaigning constrained by vote roll calls in Washington.

Carly had kind of a tough time running the world's largest tech company through tumultuous times.  She touts those accomplishments only when confronted with the bad sides of it.  Her rise is based on her focus on the task ahead, leading America.  She may have learned more out of that executive experience than if she had led the company during a time when everything they touched just turned to gold.

Trump is more of a project manager than a CEO as I see it.  Carson is a unique case outside of known rules.

Walker led in April, was second on Aug 1, did almost nothing wrong, and is now out.  This race is fluid.
--------------------------------------

With everything now upside down, Trump is now where Bush was supposed to be when he entered.  There was the Bush support, known and measured, and there was the rest splitting the anti-Bush sentiment.  The best Bush could do was hold his ground and he didn't.  He under-performed.  Now there is Trump support, from low 20s to the 30s, back to low 20s.  He is the most known now so everyone inclined to prefer him already does.  As he gets more specific on issues, some of his support could erode.  If he looks unelectable, more support erodes.  Not too many who are now anti-Trump now are going to change their mind and back him for the nomination as I see it.

Disclosure, my prediction accuracy rate is not very good and the candidates I like best tend to lose.  (
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2015, 10:04:42 AM
I just made a small donation each to Rubio and Carson
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 22, 2015, 10:24:29 AM
And a big one to Trump.    :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2015, 02:03:21 PM
MAJORITY OF NEW YORKERS, JEWS DON'T LIKE HILLARY CLINTON
New Yorkers rate Hillary unfavorably by 51 to 46 percent.
September 22, 2015
 
Daniel Greenfield
 
 
 
Hillary Clinton used money and political connections to carpetbag herself into a Senate seat in New York. Now for the first time, she's viewed unfavorably by a majority of New Yorkers.
New Yorkers rate Hillary unfavorably by 51 to 46 percent. Among Jews, 54 percent rate Hillary Clinton unfavorably to a 45 percent favorable. Those are worse numbers than Obama, who also polls underwater among Jews, but polls favorably among New Yorkers.
Donald Trump is leading in New York, which is what you would expect. Ben Carson comes in second. Jeb Bush third. Not that it's a contest either way. No Republican is going to win New York, though Trump comes closest to splitting the Jewish vote against Biden 43 to 54 percent. Trump does slightly better with New York Latinos than Jeb Bush, but his presence also moves more Latino undecideds to Biden.
Hillary Clinton though is just unpopular in New York. No Republican actually beats her, but she performs worse against Biden in most matchups. And she splits the Catholic vote and 43 percent of the Jewish vote goes to her opponent.
Biden is very competitive among Catholics if his opponent is Jeb Bush (even though Jeb is Catholic) or Donald Trump. Ben Carson splits Catholics. But Hillary splits Catholics. And this isn't a Latino issue, because Hillary does better with Latinos than Biden. Hillary has a problem with white Catholics.
Also interestingly, Hillary ties Jeb Bush and Trump among white New Yorkers, but Ben Carson decisively wins white New Yorkers. (He doesn't do anything with black voters.)
Against Jeb Bush, Bernie Sanders actually does worse with Jewish New Yorkers than Hillary. (And she isn't popular either.) Sanders also gets the lowest level of black support and is barely above 50 percent with Latino voters.
Ben Carson actually gets 39 percent against Bernie Sanders' 46 percent. It's also one of the few scenarios where Ben Carson picks up any amount of the black vote. Against Carson, Sanders' Latino support falls to 42 percent.
Sanders wins white voters over Bush, but loses white voters to Carson.
This is an interesting scenario. You have to wonder what's going on there. Which white voters is Carson unlocking.
Meanwhile the big issue is still the economy. Nobody cares about immigration. Even among Latinos it only pulls 13 percent. That's average.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 22, 2015, 02:21:49 PM
Thought it time to post the latest polling data from the Morning Consult.  This is certainly different than the CNN/ORC poll that all the media keep citing. The Morning Consult and the NBC poll (not even quoted by NBC, they are using the CNN/ORC poll) are similar.  Based upon the polling subsequent to the 2nd debate, the CNN poll is an outlier.

No wonder Trump went off on Fox last night. Fox continues to promote the worst poll and ignore the NBC and other polls. The Fox/GOPe/Rove attack continues.

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/presidential-candidates-morning-consult-national-poll-sept-22nd.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Hillary ill?
Post by: ppulatie on September 22, 2015, 02:59:03 PM
This is the second article that I have seen today on this.

Edward Klein is writing a book whereby he cites that "The 67-year-old Democratic front-runner has been “frequently plagued” by “blinding headaches” and a series of strokes over the course of the campaign which have left her second-guessing her chances of winning in 2016, says the upcoming book “Unlikeable — The Problem with Hillary.”

http://nypost.com/2015/09/22/hillary-is-dealing-with-mounting-health-issues-new-book-claims/ (http://nypost.com/2015/09/22/hillary-is-dealing-with-mounting-health-issues-new-book-claims/)

The book is up on Amazon and is being released Sep 28, which would be next Tuesday.

http://www.amazon.com/Unlikeable-Problem-Hillary-Edward-Klein/dp/1621573788 (http://www.amazon.com/Unlikeable-Problem-Hillary-Edward-Klein/dp/1621573788)

If Klein does report these illnesses, Hillary will have to respond by releasing her medical records. If not, then she only reinforces the idea that she is not well, and is hiding it.

This could be the tipping point and could force her out of running for President. it would be the proverbial stake in the heart of the vampire.

BTW, Hillary just came out against Keystone. This was two days after saying that she was going to wait until after the election to say something on it.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on September 24, 2015, 10:49:45 AM
Donald Amongst the Eggheads

They don’t like him for some strange reason.

By R. Emmett Tyrrell, Jr. – 9.23.15 - The American Spectator.

Hold on to your toupees, the conservative intellectuals are in a stew.

One candidate in the race for the Republican presidential nomination is not playing by the rules. He is rude and crude and having a very good time of it. Oh, and by the way, he is leading the field by a lot. He has 29 percent of the vote among Republicans, according to an NBC online survey the other day. His next closest opponent is Dr. Ben Carson with 14 percent and after that Carly Fiorina with 11 percent. Both, incidentally, are new to politics as is the target of the conservative intellectuals’ wrath, Donald Trump. Interestingly the intellectuals are markedly out of touch with the conservative rank and file.

Trump’s rambunctious presence in the race is responsible for a miracle. The conservative intellectuals have finally thrown in with the left intellectuals. Both disrelish Trump, and, if truth be known, they are not very happy with Carson or Fiorina, who with Trump account for over 50 percent of the Republican vote. A year ago these three would be sitting in the politicians’ audience.

Meanwhile Trump is flying around the country having a great time discomfiting the intellectuals and gathering abundant support from conservative voters, independents, and even from the left. How is this happening? Well, Trump speaks boldly. He has taken the measure of the political class and finds it wanting. And he has identified issues that most of the other candidates are too timid to tackle. He is an optimist. Like Ronald Reagan he sees America as a shining city on a hill, and it does not make him wince. My guess is that Trump likes movies starring John Wayne and Clint Eastwood. He is a regular American.

The think tank eggheads bring to politics neatly tailored plans to address such problems as income distribution or the immigration conundrum. Trump clarifies issues. To income distribution he brings plans for economic growth and jobs. To the immigration question he identifies the problem. It is illegal immigration, and the illegals leap to supply him with evidence by murdering and raping the citizenry. Trump’s solution is to build a wall and to return the illegals. As for those immigrants who arrived here legally, they can continue to prosper. There is evidence the legals approve.

Aside from identifying and clarifying issues, Trump spots as issues matters that the establishment politicians hardly notice, for instance, political correctness. Somehow he has perceived that political correctness rankles average Americans. It angers them when political correctness intrudes into school curricula, political discourse, and how government treats its citizens. When Trump speaks out against it, the ordinary American discovers that Trump is their kind of guy. He is also their kind of guy when he speaks out against tax loopholes and for fairness in the tax code. Trump has his finger on the pulse of average Americans. His touch for markets that has made him billions he applies to finding constituencies, and it appears he has been brilliant at finding constituencies or, as he says, “The Silent Majority.” He, and for that matter the other late arrivals to politics Carson and Fiorina, have caused anxiety in the establishments of both parties, to say nothing of the intellectuals.

How is it that Trump anticipates the issues better than the establishment politicians? Well, despite his fortune, Trump is a regular American. I think a lot of Americans recognize this. The best of America is like Trump, optimistic, self-confident, energetic, can-do, and they enjoy a good laugh. Trump has made running for political office fun again, much as Ronald Reagan made running for office fun again after the lugubrious Jimmy Carter. Reagan spoke of “Morning in America.” Trump has trademarked “Make America Great Again.”

How is Trump going to do when the voting begins? I can see him getting at a minimum 25 percent of the vote going into the convention, maybe more. It depends on his ability to develop an organization to get out the vote, his continued anticipation of issues, and his continued ability to address them boldly. If he succeeds, as I think he will, he will have a strong hand to play in the convention. I suspect his strongest opponent will be Jeb Bush, but Carson and Fiorina will also be candidates to reckon with. Then the players will sit down and cut a deal, but remember they will be dealing with the billionaire who wrote The Art of the Deal. I am looking forward to an exciting summer in 2016.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 24, 2015, 11:36:49 AM
Tyrel writes a good piece about Trump and what motivates his supporters, but the motivations cited are symptoms of the problems that we have, and that it is hoped that Trump can address.  But before I discuss this, two personal observations:

1. I do the grocery shopping in the family. The last two times I have gone and while waiting in line, I hear discussions on Trump. Most people are genuinely enthused by Trump and hope that he can bring change. The comments come from all groups and not just whites. (Now, I live in a middle class, liberal Northern California city. It has a mix of ethnic groups, about 15% black, 25%  hispanic, 20% asian and the rest white.) When I do hear negative, it is easy to determine the liberal persuasion of the person.

2. I was given a Make America Great Again ball cap. Since I am a "shit disturber", I will wear it to the malls and other shopping areas. The response that I get to the ball cap is overwhelmingly positive. I am stopped and asked time and again where the question is always about where they can get a cap. Also, I am engaged in conversations about how good Trump will be for the country.

The question for why this is occurring goes far beyond what Tyrel writes about. To understand, I would direct people to reading "The Fourth Turning"  (TFT) by Strauss and Howe, written in 1996.

TFT does a historical analysis of the past going back to the 1400's, and identifies that history operates on not a "a straight time line" but that it is circular. Essentially what they mean is that history does repeat itself in general trends.  The trends come from a "generational basis" and each generation covers about an 20 year period. Every 4th Generation, the country/society "resets" and begins anew.

TFT identifies the US as having gone through 4 cycles to date, with us currently being in the 4th Turning of the 4th cycle. They identify the cycles as The Revolutionary War, The Civil War, The Depression/WW2, and the newest cycle being the Financial/Housing Crisis.

Each 4th Turning has certain general characteristics that indicate a type of malaise which has settled over the country. People find that the "old ways" no longer work, people are disillusioned, and the leaders of the country cannot or will not engage in efforts to cure the issues. Financially, things are just as bad with Debt Leverage at unacceptable levels. Often, a "general" war is experienced.  The result of the 4th Turning is that people look for change, and the change begins with the search for a new leader who they fell can counter what is occurring.

The leader that is most often chosen is one who is accepted as "strong and decisive". He might be good or bad. For example in the previous 4th Turning from the Depression Era, the US looked to Roosevelt, the UK Churchill, Germany Hitler and the USSR Stalin. Previous turnings saw the US going to Lincoln and Washington.

If this premise is accepted, then it becomes obvious why so many are looking to Trump to lead. He is considered strong, decisive and a problem solver. (Snarly may fall for a time into this category.) Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, and the dwarves do not meet the strong and decisive standards, so they fail to attract the support. The Dem candidates fall into this same category, except for perhaps Warren.

The problem for any country entering into a 4th Turning is that absolutely no one knows how it will turn out. Society will change, but where these changes will occur and how are unknown. Society may take entirely unpredictable paths, especially if a general war occurs.

TFT is really a good book to consider reading for this perspective.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - John Kasich: Life is about balance
Post by: DougMacG on September 28, 2015, 08:55:24 AM
He hasn't earned his own thread yet, but Kasich is moving like a turtle toward the nomination.  If we assume the top 3, Trump, Carson and Fiorina will fizzle, and Jeb Bush too, and that Cruz isn't electable, that leaves Rubio and Kasich.  Rubio is young, articulate and charismatic.  Kaaich is older, wiser and more experienced (at compromising).  Take your pick.

Kasich says he will focus on New Hampshire and then sweep the country (good luck with that.)  Yet this powerline sighting was in Council Bluffs Iowa on Saturday:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/09/live-from-council-bluffs-its-john-kasich.php

In the first place he [Kasich] has decent poll numbers. The Real Clear Politics average has him at 10 percent or fourth in New Hampshire. Nationally, Bloomberg has him at 4 percent. The second point to consider is that he has been a successful governor of the large and electorally important state of Ohio. He claims to have taken an $8 billion dollar state deficit and turned it into a $2 billion dollar surplus. But then again Scott Walker and Rick Perry had at least equally impressive records and they are both out.

John Kasich appears to be a happy warrior. It’s a quality that has appeal to many voters.

The event at the county fairgrounds was well-attended with the largest contingent of local elected officials at any GOP event I have been at. It is easy to forget that in Iowa and New Hampshire the endorsement and campaign infrastructure of the locals can be critical to success. Congressman David Young was in attendance. He did not endorse Kasich but spoke favorably of him.

At the outset Kasich reminded the crowd of his blue collar roots and his father’s occupation as a mailman. He said he would speak for the people who have no one to speak for them. Bear in mind, however, that he used to work as an investment banker and has friends on Wall Street. Kasich therefore has a background in three worlds: politics, media (at FOX News) and finance.

One of his strengths is his background in budget and spending issues in the state and federal government. He claims to have written the first balanced federal budget since roughly forever. He claims to have left Congress with a huge fiscal surplus surplus, but “the GOP spent it.” Not the Democrats, but the Republicans. He used the line: “When you know the budget, you know everything.” Look for that in the next debate.

He said he will restore defense spending but will be prudent about it. Kasich claimed credit for stopping the spending on the legendary $800 hammer.

Government shutdowns are in the news again and he was part of the first one. He said he supported the Clinton-era shutdown because he “knew he could bend Clinton.”

His populist message was expressed in his desire not to exclude anyone. Kasich’s happy warrior message was conveyed with his promise to compromise without compromising principles.

Kasich took up Pope Francis’s visit. He attributed the Pope’s popularity to a message of hope. Kasich avows that his campaign for president is meant to lift us up and stop the negativity.

I asked him about his reputation as a moderate Republican. Kasich asserted that today Ronald Reagan would be considered a moderate Republican. The other aspect of his moderate reputation is one of tone. He will talk publicly about average people’s problems and his work to solve them. He claims: “I’m a mainstream conservative and a reformer.”

In  answer to a question about the overbearing EPA he worked in the assertion that Hillary is most fearful of him winning the nomination. He seeks to remind voters that the nominee needs the votes of many voters who are middle-of-the-road. He puts it this way: “Life is about balance.”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 28, 2015, 09:37:38 AM
My three problems with Kasich are:

1. He is pro Amnesty and really not supportive of a Wall.

2. He expanded Medicaid in Ohio significantly, supported Medicare 4 which was for prescription medicine.

3. He supports Commoncore.

For things like Abortion, he is "pragmatic". He is against abortion personally, but will not go against it legally. Probably the same with Planned Parenthood. (On this stuff, it is simply a device to splinter both sides, so as the special interests can keep money coming in and keeping up the division.)

He talks of smaller government, but I have no idea where he really stands, but I suspect he will expand it if elected.

Gun control, he has supported assault weapon issues, but he also has been more conservative on other issues.

I figure he is also bush lite.
Title: Hillary Worked to Silence Bill's Sexual Assault Victims...
Post by: objectivist1 on September 28, 2015, 10:32:46 AM
ROGER STONE: ‘PETS KILLED, TIRES SLASHED, LATE NIGHT PHONE CALLS’ TO SILENCE BILL CLINTON’S SEXUAL ASSAULT VICTIMS

by ROBERT WILDE  27 Sep 2015

Long time political operative and strategist Roger Stone appeared on Breitbart News Sunday, broadcast on SiriusXM patriot radio channel 125, with Breitbart’s senior investigative political reporter Matt Boyle.

Stone who cut his political teeth working for Richard Nixon’s infamous Committee to Re-elect the President, later campaigned for Ronald Reagan, and until recently worked for Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, shared a few nuggets from his new book The Clintons’ War on Women, which he co-wrote with Robert Morrow.

Stone told Boyle that Hillary Clinton promoting herself as an advocate for women and children is hypocrisy. The author reminded Breitbart News Sunday listeners that as recently as last week Hillary spoke about the rape issue and that raped victims should be believed.

“Unfortunately, this doesn’t match her own history,” Stone pointed out. “She has been an enabler of rape. She has been the person to enable the serial rape and sexual assaults by her husband Bill Clinton. Some of which are known publicly: Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick, and Kathleen Willey.”

Stone stated that there were “many, many others who were not known publicly.” He charges that the main stream media is protective of the Clintons and supressed the other incidents to the public.

In The Clintons’ War on Women, Stone told Boyle that “We have laid out Hillary’s real record on women.”

Stone accused Bill Clinton of violating the women physically and that Hillary came to his rescue and hired detectives, to gather information on the women. She then used the information to “run a terror campaign to intimidate Bill’s victims into silence.”

According to Stone, Hillary’s motivation is clear. She does not want  anything to get in the way of growing their power and wealth.

Stone added that the book includes not only the serial rapes committed by Bill Clinton and Hillary’s cover up, but the “horiffic things” that were done to his victims. “Pets Killed. Tires slashed. Windshields Smashed in and bullets left in the front seat of cars. Late night phone calls: We know where you’re children go to school,” all of these threats were part of the Clintons intimidation tactics.

“This is very sick stuff.  It is the psychological abuse of women and Hillary is responsible for it. Women voters need to know her real record,” the political firebrand asserted.

Ironically, Stone observes, that Hillary advocates for equal pay, but that “in no job where she was the boss did women make as much as the men.”

“Hillary is really not a friend to women,” he insists. “That is really what this book is about.”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 28, 2015, 07:07:21 PM
North Carolina just manipulated its Primary Election. Guess who benefits?

NC was a winner take all primary. It was always assumed to be in the Jeb corner in support.

Jeb's support has dropped from 12% to 5% in the last month. Rand Paul is at 0%. And Mrs Graham now has 2 supporters, up from  0 last month. She is surging.
Trump has gone in one month from 24 to 26% support.

So what did NC do on Sat? They changed the rules to:

1. Proportional Primary so that the delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis.

2. Increased the number of delegates from 12 to 72. NC now has the 6th highest number of delegates to the convention.

3. 3 of the delegates are "at-large" and can vote for whoever they want.

So who does this benefit? It benefits Bush or Rubio, whoever remains, because they will now get a portion of the delegates that would otherwise go to the winner, likely to be Trump.

The poll is Public Policy and the results will be released tomorrow.
Title: Geraghty
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 29, 2015, 08:57:05 AM
The State of the Race as September Comes to an End

Donald Trump: A lot of Trump critics are confident he will burn out. I’m not so sure. Sure, it’s not that hard to picture scenarios where Trump trips up and can’t recover: a series of statements akin to “Look at that face!” makes him unacceptable even to Republicans who agree with him on the issues, or running for office stops being fun for him and his interest wanes, or he finally goes to events like the one by Heritage Action in South Carolina and withers when he’s in a format that requires policy details instead of applause lines. But Trump foes would be fools to count on this. Trump may have stopped gaining momentum inthe polls, but he’s still the front-runner.
Yes, there’s some polling evidence that Trump supporters aren’t the voters most likely to vote in a GOP caucus or primary . . .

Trump supporters lag behind Republican primary voters in general in high-engagement voter categories. Trump also lags significantly in penetration of issue-driven voters. Conversely, he enjoys a significant concentration of support among unengaged voters. One might assume that these unengaged voters are attracted to Trump's brash style and talent for creating sound bites.

. . . but some of those folks taking a newfound interest in politics because of Trump will get up off the couch, register as Republicans, and vote for him. (Speaking as a rabid Trump critic, this is an accomplishment.)

Recall Fred Barnes’s observation of the focus group of Trump supporters: “Their tie to him is almost mystical. He’s a kind of political savior, someone who says what they think.” Even if Trump never builds upon the 20-some percent he’s getting in most polls right now, just holding that level of support would leave him with a big pile of delegates and maybe the ability to play kingmaker.

Throw in the front-loading of primaries next year, and whoever is hot in February and March is probably going to be the nominee. We know Trump will have the money to run whatever positive messages he needs and to go negative on anyone he wishes. He’s pretty much dominated the political discussion almost every week since mid-June.
Even if Trump departs the race, Trump-ism will live on well past 2015. The modern conservative movement/Republican party is going to have a significant minority, if not a plurality, yearning for vehement opposition to illegal immigration, wariness of trade deals, the intermittent rhetorical denunciation of hedge-fund managers, and the insistence that most foreign-policy problems can be resolved by simply meeting with foreign leaders to “look ’em in the eye and say, ‘Fellas, you’ve had your fun. Your fun is over.’”

There will always be an appetite for someone who comes along and insists the solutions are easy.

Ben Carson: The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza ranks Carson the sixth-most-likely person to win the GOP nomination, which seems really low. He observes, “Carson’s recent comments about his wariness about electing a Muslim president further stoked concerns from establishment Republicans that he is simply not ready for prime time.” Forget making and breaking candidates; so far this cycle, have we seen any indication that “establishment Republicans” can influence the rise or fall of candidates?

Ben Carson raises money in bunches. He’s got the indisputably impressive life accomplishments. He’s got . . . Kanye West. You could see him cleaning up in Iowa or South Carolina. And you can’t help but wonder that as race relations get worse, a broad swath of the public might yearn for a message like Carson’s final statement in the first debate:

CARSON: Well, I think the bully pulpit is a wonderful place to start healing that divide. You know, we have the purveyors of hatred who take every single incident between people of two races and try to make a race war out of it, and drive wedges into people. And this does not need to be done. What we need to think about instead -- you know, I was asked by an NPR reporter once, why don’t I talk about race that often. I said it’s because I’m a neurosurgeon. And she thought that was a strange response. And you say -- I said, you see, when I take someone to the operating room, I’m actually operating on the thing that makes them who they are. The skin doesn’t make them who they are. The hair doesn’t make them who they are. And it’s time for us to move beyond that. (APPLAUSE) Because our strength as a nation comes in our unity. We are the United States of America, not the divided states. And those who want to divide us are trying to divide us, and we shouldn’t let them do it.

Carly Fiorina: She’s undoubtedly rising; she was at 3.3. percent in the RealClearPolitics average on September 19. Now she’s at 11.6 percent. If the race comes down to who the best communicator is, she may have the best shot. But I wonder how many Republicans have this nagging doubt that the Democrats would “Romney-ize” her over the layoffs . . .

Marco Rubio: To hear Terry Sullivan, Marco Rubio’s campaign manager tell it, they’re perfectly comfortable where they are right now -- in the middle of the pack, not high enough to attract flak from the other candidates, not low enough to stir talk of a lost cause. “People don’t stop running for president because they run out of ideas, or they run out of a desire to give speeches; they stop because they run out of money,” Sullivan told Rich Lowry at our event last week. “When you’re paying people for three months, it’s not too bad; when you’re paying them for twelve months, it’s different . . . Everybody on our campaign has taken a pay cut from whatever job they had, myself included.” Every expense over $500 has to be approved by Sullivan. With budgeting like that, Rubio won’t be leaving the race anytime soon, and it’s easy to imagine Republicans who aren’t comfortable with the first-time candidates unifying behind Rubio.

Jeb Bush: Hey, remember how Bush’s super PAC started running $24 million in ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina back in mid-September? There have only been two polls conducted in those states since then, so it’s too early to see if they’ve had an effect. But if there isn’t some pop in those numbers for Bush, it might be time to hit the panic button. It’s near-impossible to imagine Jeb Bush dropping out before votes start getting cast, but if he’s stumbling along in single digits in January . . . how long will he stay in the race?

Everybody at this level and down is husbanding resources and hoping to get a boost out of either Iowa or New Hampshire. The buzz is that Rand Paul is being pressured to drop out and focus on running for reelection to the Senate.

Ted Cruz: Is the Cruz strategy really to be warm and fuzzy to Trump, positioning himself if Trump stumbles or withdraws? If you were on Team Cruz, wouldn’t you want to start formulating a plan just in case Trump doesn’t withdraw? Cruz has the money to stick around a long time; it’s just not clear that he’s got a plan to transfer Trump’s supporters to himself without Trump’s approval.

John Kasich: Obviously getting some traction in New Hampshire, but he seems like the antithesis of what a lot of conservatives want to see in their nominee this year.
Chris Christie: Most people thought he had a good debate, but we haven’t seen much pop in his poll numbers. It appears that in to move the numbers in the current media environment, you need more than just a “good debate,” you need “a moment” -- either a speech or exchange that people gush about the next day. Lindsey Graham is in a similar situation.

Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum: Both of these guys keep hanging around, obviously operating on a shoestring, hoping that Iowa will fall in love with them again and catapult them to the first tier. The only Republican who won a contested Iowa caucus twice was Bob Dole (1988, 1996).

Bobby Jindal: Yes, yes, he’s lower than pi in just about every poll. He’s pretty clearly focusing on Iowa and hoping for the best. Still, he’s the candidate who simultaneously can’t stand GOP leadership in Washington (“It appears that even though voters gave Republicans control of the Senate in 2014, Harry Reid is still running the Senate.”); the current front-runner (“Donald Trump is a madman who must be stopped.”); and President Obama (“The president told the pope that, in America, people must be free to live out their faith without fear of intimidation. That’s the opposite of reality in America today.”) Maybe there’s a sweet spot in between there.

NBC News: Hey, It’s Time to Trim the GOP Field

Urgh.

Though the debate will be on NBC partner CNBC, Chuck Todd, NBC’s political director and the moderator of Meet the Press, is taking part in establishing the debate set up and criteria. And Todd has publicly expressed skepticism about the need to include 10 or 11 candidates, the numbers featured in the first two debates.

“Let’s just say the goal is to create a threshold that candidates have to meet to qualify for the stage rather than committing to putting 10 candidates on the stage. And I don’t think we should commit to more than 10-candidate debates. You have to be viable. So now we’re in debate three it’s time to show viability and only the viable ones survive,” Todd said during an interview on ESPN radio last week.

First, why are we learning, or at least getting hints, about the debate criteria from ESPN radio?

Second, can you think of a better rallying cry for the guys left off stage -- presumably Jindal, Santorum, Pataki, Graham, and maybe Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee -- than for them to be left out by NBC News? “The liberal media, the parent company of MSNBC, has decided my voice shouldn’t be heard . . .”

Third, in an era where campaigns are fueled by the fundraising surges that come from televised “moments” -- and in a cycle where the RNC set strict rules on how many debates could occur, thus limiting the opportunity for these “moments” -- why would the RNC accept NBC News’ effectively knocking four or five guys off the stage?

Fourth, Fox News and CNN enjoyed monster ratings for having both debates. Why would CNBC want to limit what’s likely to be the most-watched program in their history?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 29, 2015, 09:18:24 AM
Here is a question that needs to be asked........

Does the GOP even want to win the Presidency? Or do all they really care about is retaining control of the Senate and House? Why do I ask?

1. The GOP has been pushing for Jeb since Romney. And we all know that Jeb cannot win. No more Bushes. Heck, just looking at Bush on the campaign trail, and he looks like he does not want to win, that he is going to the dentist when he campaigns. Why push him then?

2. The GOP is pushing Amnesty, which the public does not want. What is with that?

3. Carson is mostly concerned with abortion and gay marriage, against both.  He is a 7 Day Adventist.....and look what happened with Romney and his Morman beliefs. Carson considers greater NSA spying against Muslims in the US, including search and seizure. Does it stop there? What about the 4th Amendment?  Carson thinks everyone should be able to buy a gun without a registration requirement, yet he turns around and says that Assault Weapons are okay in the country areas, but not cities. Where is he on the 2nd Amendment?

4. Carly is unelectable. This week she is against abortion, wants to turn back Roe v Wade, but two years ago, she was pro abortion. Additionally, she is a believer in mad made global warming,  amnesty, and Common Core. Plus, she has a credibility issue.

5.   Rubio is Jeb lite. Amnesty, Common Core, etc. He appears to be the alternative if Jeb fails, but who really wants him?

The other candidates that the GOP supports, Kasich, etc., have their issues as well.

Cruz, he is not electable since he will be hit with the Tea Party label.

The only potential candidate that could likely win in the general election would be Trump. But the GOP is attacking him at every point, even though he is actually getting increasing support from blacks and latinos.

So the question remains, does the GOP really want to win? I would suggest that they do not. Here is why.

The US is facing critical issues, both financially and socially over the next 10 years. The debt is continuing to climb, and contrary to those who view debt as a percentage of GDP and thus as long as it remains about 22% of GDP, all is fine. But that is unsustainable.

Employment is another problem that needs real resolution. The participation rate is at the lowest in decades. People cannot work or get full time work. People are working 2-3 jobs, just to get by. Yet the government claims that the employment rate is 5.1%, which is considered full employment.

The banks are financially insolvent. They survive only by manipulating mark to mark and not mark to market. Their profits are being generated by market actions, not traditional lending practices.

The housing market remains broken. No one is taking the steps needed to get it going again.

Fed rates remain at ZIRP levels. 0% interest rates. Once they are forced to increase, there goes the economy, housing, employment, etc.

Simply put, the US is broken and may not be fixable, at least with "traditional" practices. Only extraordinary means of attacking the problems might work, and that is questionable.

So the question again..........does the GOP want to win the election? Do they want the blame when things go to the bad again? Do they expect a general collapse and another Great Depression, so they want to "hide"?

The GOP actions would seem to suggest so.
Title: Larry Correia's election predictions
Post by: G M on September 29, 2015, 10:01:34 AM
http://monsterhunternation.com/2015/08/11/my-election-predictions/

My Election Predictions

    August 11, 2015   correia45   381

I was talking to Mike Kupari about this yesterday, mostly being my usual optimistic self, and telling him don’t worry, the election wasn’t going to be Donald Trump versus Bernie Sanders, so there was no reason to flee and build a compound in Costa Rica just yet. He suggested I write it up for the blog, so what the heck, here goes.

Note, these aren’t endorsements, they’re predictions. So you don’t need to yell at me for not backing your dude. Yes, I’m sure your Candidate X is super awesome, and I’m a stupid jerk face for not seeing it.

My prediction is that the republican nominee will be Ted Cruz. The democrat nominee will be Hillary Clinton.  At this early point in the campaigns I got Dole, Bush, and Romney right. McCain surprised me, but I think I was just blinded by my dislike for him. I predicted Obama as soon as he got done with that first original DNC speech, and sadly got that one right. Though I was surprised how fast he usurped the Clinton machine.

Here is my reasoning. First, the democrat side is really easy to predict. You’ve got one batty old socialist and a slightly battier old socialist. Though I’ve been told that Hillary Clinton isn’t actually a socialist because the way she loves taking bribes is very capitalistic. Good point.

Bernie is nuts, but he’s honest. He skips right over all the typical democrat feel good, heart string tugging reasons why they think the government should control everything, and gets right to the government controlling everything. He is economically illiterate. Those Occupy Democrat memes going around Facebook where they are quoting Bernie fucking up some basic economic principle are literally painful. Every time you share one of those, an accountant dies.

The only reason Bernie is actually polling surprisingly decently is because many democrats sense just how lackluster Hillary is. However, Hillary is still going to get the nomination. Because as much as democrats like to think that they’re all about tolerance, there is something incredibly emasculating about watching your candidate get chased off the podium of his own rally. There’s a reason the Black Lives Matter protestors haven’t invaded Hillary’s space, because we all suspect she’d shriek “GUARDS! SEIZE THEM!” super villain style, and then have them devoured by her nanotech enhanced attack weasels.

Hillary may be a liar and a cheat, and she’d sell your children’s organs to Russian mobsters to make five bucks, but at least she’s not a total chicken shit. So, barring the highly unlikely event that Hillary gets arrested by the FBI for one of her multitude of scandals between now and the primaries, Hillary is it.

On the GOP side it gets really hard to predict just because there are a slew of candidates. Right now I see it going Cruz, with an outside chance of Rubio or Walker. Yes, I know that isn’t what the polls say right now, but this is how I see it playing out.

Trump is a stunt candidate. He’s sitting around twenty percent, lots of people are flipping out about it, and the media is loving that. But the rest of the GOP can’t stand him. As we head into the primaries we always do this thing, where somebody will pop up, the voters will say Oooooh New and Shiny, they’ll surge, and then once people have a chance to actually look at what they’ve really done, they come back down.

The thing everybody needs to remember is that every single election cycle we go through this period where the media tries to pick the eventual GOP candidate for us. Their criteria are A. Can the democrat eventually beat them? And B. If they do somehow win, will they not rock the boat too bad for democrats? McCain is the greatest example of that ever. This time around their obvious pick was Jeb Bush. For weeks it was Jeb, Jeb, Jeb. Only Jeb was dull and Trump makes great TV. If you look at early polling it almost always correlates with how much media attention the candidate is receiving. So, a candidate polling at 5% is usually getting 5% of the coverage, etc.

Trump comes along, he’s bombastic, unapologetic, and simply does not give a shit. The real lesson to be taken from Trump and Bernie is that many Americans are so damned tired of the establishment and the media that they’ll root for anybody, no matter how crazy they are, if they’ll just quit sucking up and actually stand for something.

But here is the problem with Trump, and it isn’t his personality or being willing to insult people (because if I’m judging these people on personality, I’d probably get along with him in person way better than most of the others, and the Rosie line made me do a spit take). It is because he’s been a Republican less time than Bernie has been a Democrat. When I’ve talked to the hard core Stormtrumpers they’ll say he’s great on the border! Okay, but what about his record on abortion, guns, crony capitalism, government intervention, eminent domain, and single payer healthcare? Suck, suck, suck… oh but on that one he evolved… This week.

For the people convinced that Trump is the Real Conservative in the race, and that the other 15 are all RINOs, put down the crack pipe. This is the same guy who a couple of years ago was outraged about violent videogames and saying how somebody needed to do something about them. Yeah, there’s a dude totally grounded in the Bill of Rights.

And before any fanatical Trump fan yells at me again about Megan Kelly was mean and how I just listen to FOX News, I cancelled cable like a year ago, so I don’t watch TV news unless I’m on it. Sheesh. The hard core Trump fans remind me a lot of the old hard core Ron Paul fans.

So with all the attention in the world, he’s leading at 20%, but that’ll die down as the novelty wears off. Most people aren’t single issue voters, and they’ve already put up with two terms from a malignant narcissist, why pick another? Trump will eventually drop out and use his celebrity to make even more money, much of which he’ll donate to democrats and democrat causes.

Then it gets really complicated.

Carly Fiorina did really well on the first debate, and then kicked Chris Matthews’s ass (see that thing above about people being hungry for anyone who will stand up to the media). I’ve got several friends who are hard core Fiorina supporters, but I have another friend who worked for her at HP who really found her business practices shady, but I’ve not had a chance to delve into that enough to comment.

A lot of people are thinking it would be a good match up because Fiorina is a woman and Hillary is a sort of woman shaped carbon based life form. And it could possibly derail Hillary’s main campaign platform of Vote For Me Or You’re a Misogynist Pig. Which will probably be similar to Obama’s Vote For Me or You’re Racist and Vote For Me or You’re Racist 2: Extra Racist.

However, according to the media we all know that Republican women aren’t real women. Just like Ben Carson, Tim Scott, Mia Love, Clarence Thomas, Condi Rice, and Walter Williams aren’t actually black people either.

The strategic problem for Fiorina is that because she is a Republican woman, and she has done well, expect the media to go full Palin on her. If she does have any questionable business dealings, they’ll be huge headlines for weeks on end (unlike deleted emails, missing classified documents, and getting ambassadors killed, because what difference does it make?). She’s still a possibility, but if there is anything even vaguely shady or potentially shady, the media will use it as a club to discredit her. Nothing freaks out the media worse than female or minority republicans.

Once people get tired of the Trump show, that hunger for bucking the establishment and telling the media to bugger off will still be there. And this is why I think Ted Cruz will move into the lead. He’s been a pain in the establishment’s ass. The left wing media hates him. And you can usually tell who the media really fears by how much they try to ignore them, or talk about them, rather than to them (gee whiz, I can’t imagine where I came up with that theory!).

Cruz has an elected track record. He’s got actual conservative cred. He’s one of the Tea Party generation that’s been replacing the greying and thankfully dying off big government GOP. Is Cruz a fantastic candidate? Nope. His track record isn’t perfect and he looks a lot like a young Grandpa Munster. Once they can’t safely ignore him, expect the media to go after him extra hard. The thing Cruz has going for him on that front is that they’ve been trying for years, and they’ve already spilled every bit of dirty laundry they had to discredit him back during the government shut down fight.

The biggest hurdle Cruz has won’t be the DNC or their tame news media, it will be the McCains, Hatches, and Grahams of the GOP. Because they really want a Jeb or a Christie. (note, I didn’t put Lindsey Graham in that list of potential presidents, because nobody, and I’m including Lindsey Graham, think that Lindsey Graham can be president).

On Jeb Bush… Ain’t gonna happen. He was the media’s initial pick, and it was even more painfully obvious than when all the democrats showed up in our open primaries to “cross the aisle” to nominate McCain, and then promptly ditched him for Obama on election day. But Jeb’s got zilch. Actual conservatives don’t like him, the Tea Party hates him. On the issues, he’s mumble mumble amnesty and mumble mumble that’s not what Common Core was supposed to mumble. Seriously, do you know any actual voter who likes Jeb? Can you think of one? I can’t. Jeb has all the suck of the old, dying, big government GOP, so the conservative base will be even less enthusiastic for him than they were for Romney and McCain, with the added benefit that his last name is Bush, so automatically half the country hates him.

Chris Christie is beloved by the media because he’s loud, and the biggest big government big republican they can have lose to Hillary, and if Christie happened to somehow beat Hillary, then they’d only be stuck with a republican who was electable in New Jersey. Christie came to prominence because of that same phenomena that is floating Trump now—which I think will eventually give it to Cruz—in that he’s willing to be disagreeable. Sadly, he’ll buck the media, but he won’t buck the establishment because Christie is the establishment. By volume, he’s half the establishment. And I’m saying that as a 6’5” 300 pounder myself.

On the far side of Christie is Rand Paul. Now personally, I really like Rand. I think he’s actually got real convictions and he’s got guts. As hipsters where whining in one tweet about the horrible evil Tea Party, and their next tweet was lamenting how bad it was the government was reading their emails, a guy elected by the Tea Party was the one fighting to get the NSA to quit reading their mail.

If you had to name three elected officials in the GOP who have been the biggest pain in the establishment GOP’s collective ass over the last few years, it would be Paul, Cruz, and Mike Lee (that’s my senator! I don’t claim Hatch). Luckily, I think Lee is too antisocial to ever run for president, which is good, because I want him to eventually replace Mitch McConnell and his weird turtle face.

But between Rand and Cruz, Cruz is polling better now, and seems to be having a better run of it. Gut feeling, barring a really good showing, I think Rand is principled enough that he’ll drop out after the first couple of primaries to not split the Tea Party contingent, and the liberty minded republicans who are backing Rand will go to Cruz. That’ll be the jump. Of the other candidates, who else would they support? A regular Rand ally, or one of the bigger government types? That’s a no brainer and several percentage points.

That’s if the Tea Party side coalesces into one favorite. The establishment side is split too, so it’ll be interesting if they all get behind one person.

There are two others that I still see as strong possibilities, Rubio and Walker.

Scott Walker is an election winner and a union buster, two things that really appeal to the base. He had a pretty vanilla showing in the last debate. He’s squishy on some core issues, but the feeling I get is that for some reason he’s a relative unknown to most primary voters. Which again shows that who the media most fears, they ignore, until they can’t, then they lie. They did the lie/fear thing in Wisconsin, but at the national level it has mostly been ignore. So if Walker does something really interesting enough to sneak past the Trump circus sucking up all the coverage and oxygen in the room, he could still have a shot.

Rubio is an interesting one. If you’d asked me four years ago who I thought the GOP front runner would be today, he probably would have been my call. It seems like he’s got a lot of national electability, but his problem is that he straddles the line between big government establishment republican and small government conservatism way too much. Note, to all aspiring young politicians, if perpetual loser John McCain wants you to team up with him on a big controversial issue, RUN AWAY! The whole fishing boat, speeding tickets, NYT expose helped him more than anything else. It humanized him and made him relatable. But there are too many issues he has sucked on with the base, so I think he’s going to fall by the wayside.

If several of the candidates drop out and toss their support behind Rubio or Walker, it could very well go their way.

Cruz and Rubio are both Latinos. Some republicans seem to think that is like a magic bullet, and suddenly republicans are going to get the Latino vote. That’s stupid. Just stop. The concept of “Latino” as a demographic is horribly flawed and unrealistic to begin with. How in the hell can you expect to stick people whose ancestors originate from one whole continent, the bottom half of another continent, and the west end of a third continent, islands in every hemisphere, spread over like 30 countries, in America between one and ten generations, and expect them to be this homogenous voting block?

Though since Cruz and Rubio are both Cuban, I expect to see the media declare that Cubans aren’t real Latinos. Sort of like when the government declared that Portuguese are Latino, and I was all like MWA HA HA HAAAAA I’M OFFICIALLY A MINORITY and they were all like oh shit what have we done?

On the same note, some republicans seem to think that if we run Ben Carson, republicans will suddenly get the black vote. I like Ben Carson. I think he’s probably a really good man. I also think focusing on his race is an incredibly stupid philosophy, and one that the democrats will beat republicans at every time. Identity politics are stupid democrat games. Don’t be surprised when you play their game and lose. That’s because they make the rules and game is rigged. You want to win, convince people that you’re worth voting for.

The problem with Ben Carson is that he’s not a politician, and it shows. You’d think being a non-politician at a time when everybody hates politicians would be a winning proposition, but they still have to know how to play the game. Trump isn’t a politician either, but he is a consummate game player. Fiorina isn’t a politician, but judging by how she rolled Jabba the Matthews, she’s got game. As a brain surgeon Carson is probably the smartest guy on the stage, but he’s not a political animal. Hillary has 1/3 of Carson’s IQ and none of his humility, but my gut feeling is that she’d walk all over him in a debate. Then Carson had to go and suck on guns, which is a kiss of death issue with the base.

Kaish… I’m not even going to bother to look on Google to see if I spelled that right. I have no idea why he is there. Non-entity. He could be the best candidate ever, who is right on every single issue, but I wouldn’t know, and neither do any of the voters. Perry just can’t seem to shine. Lots of Texans seem to love him, but he’s got zero momentum. Jindal, same thing. Barring any sort of super brilliant coup maneuver, I don’t see these guys moving up.

Lindsey Graham… Holy shit, just shoot me now. If Lindsey Graham got elected president I’d volunteer for that one way trip to Mars, and if that was a no go, I’d build my own rocket. He’s everything wrong with John McCain and the GOP, only he’s not a war hero, and has a lisp.

Again, these are just my guesses. I could be totally wrong. I also predicted Romney was going to win in the electoral college (to be fair, he only lost by like 600k spread across four swing states, so it wasn’t like I totally blew it). But the democrat side is going to be Hillary, unless she is arrested and can’t make bail.  Republican side, I figure Cruz, with an outside chance of Fiorina, Rubio, or Walker.

However you look at it, no matter who wins, we’re going to end up with somebody better suited for the job than Barack Obama. Sadly, I’m including Bernie Sanders in that equation, and that’s really saying something.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 30, 2015, 10:54:22 AM
From Trump thread:   (PP)  Doug,

I am serious now. It will be either Hillary (if she survives the email scandal) or Biden.

You make good points on  the Trump Plan. But the problem is that Trump will not be "allowed"  to defend his plan in a rational manner. The liberal media will claim that it is unworkable, and they will drive the narrative. Meanwhile, the GOP will push the narrative that everyone must pay something, so that will drive off those who don't pay anything now.

It is becoming more apparent that the GOP ticket will likely be Rubio/Fiorina. With this ticket, the GOP can claim support for women and hispanics and for them, hopefully increase hispanic and women support. It might work to a degree, but it will be offset by the tax issue.

The problem is that Rubio/Fiorina is no better than what the Dems offer. They are all indebted to Wall Street and K Street. So nothing will really change.

What the GOP is ignoring is that with Rubio/Fiorina, once again a large part of the GOP electorate will stay home and not vote. I will be one of them. Why vote if nothing will change? It is all the Uni-Party.

With my post yesterday, I am really coming to the conclusion that the GOP would prefer to lose the Presidency again. After all, we all recognize that the next 4 years are fraught with economic danger, homeland security dangers, and society dangers caused by the ethnic divide. The next President will face all of these issues and reality suggests that there will be no easy solution.

Would you want to be President for the next four years, or eight and be responsible for handling what is coming? I would not...........and I bet that the GOP actually feels the same way.
 8-)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At this point I think either Rubio or Fiorina will be the nominee.  Rubio may be Carly's VP choice.  I don't know if she will be his.  Maybe.

There is another dynamic in play.  The statisticians like Jay Cost at Weekly Standard and Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics look at conditions and results from previous election cycles and believe that most of it, after a two term President, comes down to the approval of the incumbent and the performance of the economy under his direction.  If those are both lousy, the other party wins.  The details of each party picking their most electable candidate take care of themselves, from this point of view.

Those measures look lousy for the Dems right now, whether it turns out to be Hillary, Biden or someone else.  The approval numbers of the incumbent and the economy should be driven even lower and lower by the opposition, the way Dems did it on Bush during the Iraq war.  Why should we tolerate this level of economic incompetence and wrongheadedness.  Just the story of Carson and a Muslim President or backing a county clerk in Kentucky (?) are interesting but diversions away from winning this election.

FWIW, Marco Rubio politically is no Bob Dole, John McCain, or wishy washy Romney.  He rose from the tea party, ran against a moderate Republican, sitting governor (for Senator), tried to solve problems given the existing makeup of Congress (Dems controlled the Senate then).  He hasn't lost sight of the differences between the parties.  The contrast will be screaming-obvious in the general election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 30, 2015, 11:48:05 AM
Jay Cost is correct in past times, but I wonder now. Just think Romney is 2012. He should have won the election, but he really whimped out.

For Rubio, there is this.

1. He is for Amnesty, a problem with 62% of the population.

2. Voted against the Mike Lee amendment for balancing the budget by 2017 and reducing government size by half by 2025. Voted in 2013 against balancing budget in 5 years without tax increases.

3. He misses votes more than any other candidate. He missed votes for both the Planned Parenthood funding and also TPP.

4. He supports TPP.

5. He wants Permanent Extension of FISA, the Foreign Intelligence Survelliance Act.

6. He voted for the NSA and against the requirement of needing warrants for wiretapping of US citizens.

7. He votes against reforms to the NSA Mass Survelliance and the privacy issues.

8. Supports Medicare Part D

9. Against privatizing Social Security

10. Cosponsored legislation calling for private business to consider race in interviewing

11. Supports sugar subsidies and Import Export bank

12. Supported federal subsidies in student loans

13. Supported arming Syrian rebels and getting rid of Assad. Also supported US intervention.

14. Was in favor of US intervention in Libya.

15. Voted to block conservative amendments to the Iran Nuclear Agreement

16. Voted for Florida's Cap and Trade.

Rubio concerns me because though he appears to be a conservative, his positions like Cap and Trade and NSA/FISA suggests that he is for government expansion.





Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 30, 2015, 04:01:41 PM
Doug writes,

"It will be either Hillary (if she survives the email scandal) or Biden"

It will be clinton again.

the Clintons are all over the airwaves with their accomplisses in the media.

Erin Burnett interviewing Bill for the "clinton foundation" front.

A big announcement today on Yahoo news that Hill "breaks with Obama" on Obamacare:  She says she is against the Cadillac tax.  (big fn deal)

Showing her "humor" on the interview with ms analingus whatever the sleezeball's hoolywood name is.

And Bill telling us how "proud" he is of Hillary.  AFter telling one lie after another.
 :x
Title: Regarding "amnesty"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 30, 2015, 07:08:34 PM
Putting aside the merits of the issue, it seems to me that we here need to recognize that if someone was brought here illegally as a baby or young child and has grown up here and feels and thinks he is an American, speaks English only, etc it is going to be seriously bad politics to say he should be shipped to a "home" he does not remember where the language is one he does not.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on September 30, 2015, 07:54:04 PM
CD,

These are negotiating points to be hammered out. Art of the Deal. But since I no longer believe that Trump will be nominated, it is immaterial.

Guess I need to start a thread on my thinking about how the GOP will manipulate things so as to get their person nominated.
Title: Re: Regarding "amnesty"
Post by: G M on September 30, 2015, 08:07:50 PM
Putting aside the merits of the issue, it seems to me that we here need to recognize that if someone was brought here illegally as a baby or young child and has grown up here and feels and thinks he is an American, speaks English only, etc it is going to be seriously bad politics to say he should be shipped to a "home" he does not remember where the language is one he does not.



And how would you presume we do that? The "dreamer" program is already up to it's neck in fraud.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 01, 2015, 09:58:01 AM
PP:  I agree-- details to be hammered out  AFTER we regain control of who gets in.

GM:  My question and implied point is a political one for those who assert, as Trump does, that ALL illegals are to get shipped out.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 01, 2015, 10:15:26 AM
CD,

I cannot believe that I am going to say this but I will. Look to the Courts.  Ouch!!!!!!!!! What a mess this will be..............

Over the past several years, many immigration attorneys got into foreclosure law because of their clients being legal, illegal, and who knows what else. These attorneys are going to clog the courts with litigation with all of this if passed. It will be never ending...........

Thanks for the headache.......................

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 01, 2015, 06:08:55 PM
Most of the time the polls covered are of Rep primary voters or some sub-category like that.  I would like to see more polls of ALL voters, especially of one-on-one match ups.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 02, 2015, 02:53:50 PM
Trump's money allows him to jet anywhere he wants, anytime he wants, a luxury people like Walker, Pawlenty, santorum don't have.  Mostly, though, he has used the threat of using his money to give him credibility.  So far, it was his name, reputation, skills and message that he used to make the entry that an average outsider could never make.

The roadmap pp points to will be crucial soon and they need to be planning for it now.  It will take big money to have a serious presence everywhere at once when we get to the primaries.  All the low drawing candidates will have to decide whether to spend their donors' last dollar, take on bad debt and lose, or drop out sooner.  That is when this thins out quickly and the real fight for the nomination begins.

I think both Trump and Bush will leave this race for other reasons.  Bush because he is just not catching on.  Trump will leave the race IF he sees his numbers are about to slide.  Easy exit, Trump says, 'I made my point, now others can do it.  I have a business to run.'

The money concern for Trump is different.  I doubt he plans to spend a billion of his own money.  I also doubt that he can.  He is building up his brand as long as he is seen as a winner.  He gives that away if he fights to the end while losing.  Also, WAAAAY too much ego there to leave seen as a loser.  Instead, his exit will come as a surprise.  He must see this campaign as a distraction costing him a fortune in terms of being away from his business, and worth nothing if it isn't building his brand any further.

Also possible with Trump is that he wanted to prove he could win the election.  He may not really want the day to day duties AND SCRUTINY of the job.  He has a pretty good life already!

The latest poll pp shows puts Rubio in first of the so-called politicians which I think is a great position for him - even at 8%.  It is the first time I've seen Fiorina fall back.  I don't expect Carson to hold up as we get closer. I don't know what his end game is, maybe just step up his game and win!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 02, 2015, 03:31:11 PM
Here is the website interactive polling cite. It is using a 5 day rolling average. Trump is kicking ass on this one.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150808-20151002/collapsed/false (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TR130/type/smallest/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150808-20151002/collapsed/false)

Here is the most recent Gravis Poll coming out

http://www.oann.com/trump-dominates-one-america-news-networks-national-poll/ (http://www.oann.com/trump-dominates-one-america-news-networks-national-poll/)

Both polls are showing Trump in the 30's.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 02, 2015, 03:43:33 PM

Here is an image of the Reuters Interactive Poll. Notice a couple of things.

Carson is in a downward trend.
Fiorina is a downward trend as well, since Sep 28.
Jeb is bouncing off a bottom.
Trump took a dive after the debate, but appears to be recovering some of the losses
Rubio appears to have gained support after the debate, but he is now wavering up and down off the high.
Cruz is bouncing along his bottom, not showing any real recent change.

Go to the website for a real look.

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/reuters-tracking-poll-3.jpg?w=1920&h=1110)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 04, 2015, 08:36:02 AM
Pretty good analysis here along the thought lines of this election having brackets with quarterfinals, semi-finals and finals.
(If you buy the idea that these candidates compete for the same space, it follows that one will emerge as the victor of that space.  It seems to me that Rubio passed up Bush and that Bush will drop if he doesn't gain traction.  Kasich is the McCain/Romney-like favorite of this cycle for all the media types that will turn on him in the general election anyway, and he also isn't catching on.  A lot of experience and wisdom there, but not much for message or delivery.  But I don't see him dropping if he thinks he can do well in NH.  I would think a Rubio nominee would pick a governor for a running mate - and not from his own state.  In that sense having Kasich stay in for vetting is a good thing for the ticket.)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bush-rubio-and-kasich-eye-one-another-in-the-shadow-of-trump/2015/10/03/f3cff3f2-69dc-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html

Bush, Rubio and Kasich eye one another in the shadow of Trump
 
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush outlines his energy policy during a visit to Rice Energy, an oil and gas company based in Canonsburg, Pa. (Gene J. Puskar/AP)
By Dan Balz October 3 at 12:59 PM 
The Republican presidential contest is not, regardless of what it seems some days, all about Donald Trump. There’s another dynamic unfolding that has almost nothing to do with the businessman-politician currently atop the polls but that will have a major influence on who becomes the party’s nominee.

This other struggle involves the competition among former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. History suggests that whoever emerges triumphant in this three-way rivalry will be in a strong position to claim the nomination, though admittedly the past has been a poor predictor of events so far in this campaign.

Ever since Trump surged to the top of the polls, the other candidates have been trying to assess both his staying power and the cost-benefit analysis of engaging him. Trump and Bush have clashed almost from the start, with growing intensity. More recently, as Rubio has risen, Trump has taken aim at him, and Rubio has responded in kind.

None of the other candidates has a clear strategy for taking down Trump. But they all think he will look like a different candidate — and in their assessments, a less formidable candidate — once the field narrows to three or four finalists after the voting begins. So they are beginning to focus on one another as much as they are worrying about him.

With the first contests still months away, none of the three yet looks like a front-runner. In the average of recent national polls, Rubio and Bush run fourth and fifth behind Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina. Neither Bush nor Rubio breaks double digits. Kasich doesn’t even break 5 percent.

  Marco Rubio speaks during a meet-and-greet event Friday in Iowa. (Jessica Reilly/AP)
National polls at this stage are less meaningful than state polls. In Iowa, where the first caucus will take place in early February, Trump and Carson lead, with Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) currently third. Bush and Rubio trail the first three, and Kasich is even deeper in the pack. In New Hampshire, Trump also has a big lead, but Kasich is jockeying with Fiorina for second, with Carson and Bush next and Rubio farther back.

In recent days, Bush, Rubio and Kasich have shown how much they’re worrying about one another. They’ve been sniping at each other and making other moves that underscore the significance of their competition.

Rubio has long emphasized that the party needs a fresh candidate, not one tied to the past, an implicit criticism of his fellow Floridian who is part of an American political dynasty. Bush, a two-term former governor, has belittled Rubio’s experience, or lack thereof. Kasich, a two-term governor and longtime House member, has claimed that his experience and record are unmatched by any of the other candidates.

Advisers to the three anticipate more attacks ahead. “The Bush campaign is feverishly doing their opposition research on Governor Kasich and Senator Rubio,” said John Weaver, Kasich’s chief strategist. “An empire like that is not going to go quietly into the night. We’re expecting pretty sharp elbows to be thrown. We’re going to handle it head on.”

Past Republican nomination contests often have devolved into competition between a candidate from the center-right or mainstream conservative wing of the party and a candidate from the hard right or populist conservative wing. Most times, the candidate from the mainstream conservative wing becomes the nominee.

This year, the race is more scrambled because of the added factor of the apparent desire by many Republicans for an outsider or non-politician. That has elevated Trump, Carson and Fiorina and has forced the others to adapt. Rubio has been stressing that, despite being in the Senate, he’s really not of Washington.

Instead of establishment vs. tea party, one GOP strategist describes the race this time as a competition between those in the anger, or anti-Washington, lane, vs. those in the aspirational lane. Bush, Rubio and Kasich all fall more into the aspirational lane.

What will make the difference? Based on how the three candidates are running, it’s clear that they see the path ahead in slightly different ways, though each has handicaps he must overcome to win.

Bush has repeatedly pushed back at Trump by arguing that anger and insults cannot win the presidency. He seeks to be the aspirational candidate, conservative enough because of his record in Florida to be acceptable to a conservative party, while offering a positive and inclusive message that reaches beyond the GOP coalition.

But many Republicans see Bush as least able to appeal across the entire party — not much more able to appeal to the hard right than Cruz would be able to attract mainstream conservatives.

Lodged firmly in the establishment wing as the son and brother of former presidents, he faces resistance on the far right and among those yearning for an outsider. His hope is that he can change perceptions of himself, outlast his rivals with superior resources and persuade Republicans that he’s their best hope to win a general election.

Sally Bradshaw, Bush’s senior adviser, said the key remains what it has been from the start of the campaign: to portray Bush as a conservative reformer by stressing what he did in Florida. “People don’t know that yet,” she said. “When that message burns in, his numbers are going to change. That’s his

Kasich is looking to the traditional model. He is the compassionate conservative of 2016 who hopes to strike first in New Hampshire and build from there. His advisers believe that, eventually, he can reach across the divide in the party to become the nominee.

But the party has not only moved right in the past decade, it also has developed a harder edge than when George W. Bush ran as a compassionate conservative in 2000. Kasich’s support for expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act is just one example of a position that will not sit well with many conservatives.

Rubio’s team sees crosscutting appeal as vital, a race that will favor a candidate who can best unite a fractured party. The senator’s goal is to demonstrate skills as a communicator, to show depth on the issues, to turn his personal story into a positive message for the party, to make as few errors as possible and over time generate enthusiasm across the GOP coalition.

Rubio, too, has vulnerabilities. His past support for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, from which he has backed away, remains an obstacle in his path. So too does his personal profile, that of a youthful first-term senator with limited experience trying to become president — a profile not unlike that of President Obama when he first ran eight years ago.

David Axelrod, who was Obama’s chief strategist in both campaigns, often has said that voters look for a replacement rather than a replica in picking a new president. The adviser to one of Rubio’s rivals put it this way: “When was the last time this country elected two presidents with similar attributes?” Rubio will be trying to dissuade his fellow Republicans that he isn’t another Obama.

There are wild cards in the calculations of all three camps. Maybe New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who occupies similar space, will catch fire in New Hampshire and elsewhere, although the resistance to him within the party is significant. Fiorina has demonstrated fearlessness that has jarred even Trump and can appeal across the party. Carson remains a candidate of unknown potential.

Last, there is the Trump factor and what his support represents. For now, he remains the dominant force in the GOP race. But the advisers to Bush, Rubio and Kasich see a turn in the campaign heading into the final months of the year, one that will heighten the competition among them with significant consequences for their party.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 04, 2015, 10:21:33 AM
I expect that some people/pundits are going to be "hawking" the new IBD poll showing Carson with a substantial lead, 24 to 17 over Trump.  I have tried to find the "internals" and the "methodology" to the poll, but none of it is being published. So to determine credibility, I direct everyone to the third candidate from the bottom. Ryan has 3% support.

WTF? Ryan isn't even running.  Toss this poll out in the trash.


(http://s3.legalinsurrection.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/WEBprez100515_345.gif.cms_.png)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 04, 2015, 12:05:26 PM
I would love to see more emphasis on polls that pit each Rep vs. Hillary, each Rep vs. Biden, and each Rep vs. Sanders.

Of course I get the relevance of likely Rep primary voter polls, but we should remember to keep our eye on winning the White House.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 04, 2015, 08:34:31 PM
I would love to see more emphasis on polls that pit each Rep vs. Hillary, each Rep vs. Biden, and each Rep vs. Sanders.

Of course I get the relevance of likely Rep primary voter polls, but we should remember to keep our eye on winning the White House.

I'm sure there will be more and more of them after the field gets narrowed a little.  Here is the most recent I have seen.  Doesn't cover everything but sheds some light.
monday Sept 28, 2015
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)   Poll   Results   Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Clinton 49, Trump 39   Clinton +10
General Election: Fiorina vs. Clinton   NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Clinton 44, Fiorina 45   Fiorina +1
General Election: Bush vs. Clinton           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Clinton 45, Bush 44   Clinton +1
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton   NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Carson 46, Clinton 45   Carson +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Biden 56, Trump 35   Biden +21
General Election: Fiorina vs. Biden           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Biden 47, Fiorina 41   Biden +6
General Election: Bush vs. Biden           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Biden 48, Bush 40   Biden +8
General Election: Carson vs. Biden           NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Biden 49, Carson 41   Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders   NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   Sanders 52, Trump 36   Sanders +16
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 05, 2015, 03:21:38 AM
Well! That has a way of clarifying things a bit!

Trump loses to Sanders by 16 points?!?  To Hillary by 10?!?  To Biden by 21?!?  Indeed ALL the Reps lose to Biden?!?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 05, 2015, 08:56:32 AM
Well. that has a way of clarifying things a bit!

Trump loses to Sanders by 16 points?!?  To Hillary by 10?!?  To Biden by 21?!?  Indeed ALL the Reps lose to Biden?!?

If all are losing, it may indicate sample error.  Best to look at relative strength.

Biden carries the sympathy of losing his son.  Check back after he defends the Obama record for a year.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 05, 2015, 09:32:43 AM
"Biden carries the sympathy of losing his son.  Check back after he defends the Obama record for a year"

It won't be him anyway.  It will be the disgusting pig.  In the end she could commit murder and the libs will support her and deny everything else.   As the Democrats always do.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 07, 2015, 08:15:02 AM
I saw some polls this morning that show Trump continuing to lead the Reps among likely primary voters, but when various Reps were put one-on-one seriatim with Hillary, Biden, and Sanders among ALL voters, his poll numbers were quite inferior to those of other Rep candidates.  As I have stated here previously, in that the general election is the one we have to win, we need to keep this in mind.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 07, 2015, 08:29:39 AM
Of course, those polls have show considerable improvement from past polls for Trump. What happens when Trump begins his $20m add buy at the end of the month? Think this might have a positive affect on the polls?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 08, 2015, 09:03:33 PM
http://theweek.com/speedreads/582068/hillary-clinton-compares-gun-rights-activists-iranians-communists
Title: Moving Pat's post to here
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 09, 2015, 07:35:39 AM
Then you will love this.....follow the money. It shows who the big donors are, including the PACS.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/top-presidential-donors-campaign-money.html

Notice the Wall Street Investment type firms and energy firms supporting Cruz, Rubio and Bush. How much of the energy firms are about Keystone?

(I suppose everyone here supports Keystone.)
Title: Rubio Attacks Trump on Eminent Domain
Post by: DougMacG on October 12, 2015, 07:48:10 AM
Who could have seen THIS coming?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rubio-hits-trump-eminent-domain_1042161.html

Rubio Hits Trump on Eminent Domain
10:50 AM, OCT 7, 2015 • BY JOHN MCCORMACK

Manchester, N.H.
Florida senator Marco Rubio responded Wednesday morning to Donald Trump's comment that the use of eminent domain for private projects is a "wonderful thing."

"He's wrong," Rubio told THE WEEKLY STANDARD following a campaign event at a tech company in New Hampshire. "In Florida when I was a state legislator, we passed what has become model legislation for other states around the country--that I actually passed--both a law and a constitutional amendment that keeps developers like Donald Trump from using eminent domain to take private property away from an owner and give it to another private owner, which is what the Kelo decision said should be legal unless states barred it. So he's wrong about that. One of the most important rights Americans have is private property."

In an interview Tuesday evening with Bret Baier on Fox News, Trump praised the government's seizing private property from individuals in order to "build this massive development that’s going to employ thousands of people, or you’re going to build a factory, that without this little house, you can’t build the factory."

Conservative commentators widely criticized Trump for supporting the government trampling on individual rights.
Title: Re: Rubio Attacks Trump on Eminent Domain
Post by: G M on October 12, 2015, 07:58:08 AM
Rubio could do worse than to read up on Doug.  :-D

Who could have seen THIS coming?

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/rubio-hits-trump-eminent-domain_1042161.html

Rubio Hits Trump on Eminent Domain
10:50 AM, OCT 7, 2015 • BY JOHN MCCORMACK

Manchester, N.H.
Florida senator Marco Rubio responded Wednesday morning to Donald Trump's comment that the use of eminent domain for private projects is a "wonderful thing."

"He's wrong," Rubio told THE WEEKLY STANDARD following a campaign event at a tech company in New Hampshire. "In Florida when I was a state legislator, we passed what has become model legislation for other states around the country--that I actually passed--both a law and a constitutional amendment that keeps developers like Donald Trump from using eminent domain to take private property away from an owner and give it to another private owner, which is what the Kelo decision said should be legal unless states barred it. So he's wrong about that. One of the most important rights Americans have is private property."

In an interview Tuesday evening with Bret Baier on Fox News, Trump praised the government's seizing private property from individuals in order to "build this massive development that’s going to employ thousands of people, or you’re going to build a factory, that without this little house, you can’t build the factory."

Conservative commentators widely criticized Trump for supporting the government trampling on individual rights.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 12, 2015, 09:33:37 AM
From this, I guess Rubio is against the Keystone Pipeline.

Keystone benefits private companies, but to implement, it will require Eminent Domain use.

Hmmmm.....what to do?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 12, 2015, 11:30:39 AM
Interesting question.  Can we pin this down gents?
Title: Private beneficiaries of Eminent Domain
Post by: ppulatie on October 12, 2015, 11:38:34 AM
http://www.law360.com/articles/709025/transcanada-to-drop-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-suits (http://www.law360.com/articles/709025/transcanada-to-drop-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-suits)

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-carney-on-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-i-respectfully-dissent/article/2544461 (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-carney-on-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-i-respectfully-dissent/article/2544461)

http://insideclimatenews.org/content/keystone-xl-texas-high-court-gives-hope-landowners-eminent-domain-fight (http://insideclimatenews.org/content/keystone-xl-texas-high-court-gives-hope-landowners-eminent-domain-fight)

Here are three of many articles.

See?  Not quite so black and white......
Title: Re: Private beneficiaries of Eminent Domain
Post by: DougMacG on October 12, 2015, 07:59:09 PM
http://www.law360.com/articles/709025/transcanada-to-drop-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-suits (http://www.law360.com/articles/709025/transcanada-to-drop-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-suits)

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-carney-on-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-i-respectfully-dissent/article/2544461 (http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tim-carney-on-keystone-xl-eminent-domain-i-respectfully-dissent/article/2544461)

http://insideclimatenews.org/content/keystone-xl-texas-high-court-gives-hope-landowners-eminent-domain-fight (http://insideclimatenews.org/content/keystone-xl-texas-high-court-gives-hope-landowners-eminent-domain-fight)

Here are three of many articles.

See?  Not quite so black and white......



From the link:  "A Nebraska landowner has sued to block the taking of his property (actually, an easement across his property)"

It is a 36" pipe, a public utility easement as I understand it.  No property deeds were stripped and no one was shackled and forcibly removed from their homes in the way Suzette Kelo and Vera coking were by public officials at the direction of Pfizer and Trump.

No one near mainstream opposes eminent domain for PUBLIC USE including things like roads, bridges, airports, hospitals, prisons, even though these may have a private operator or house a private business.

The Kelo controversy is about public taking for a preferred PRIVATE USE.

So what about public utility right of ways?  Public utility commissions regulate quasi-private companies that operate a utility - like a pipeline.  Are they public use?  Yes.  Is that a gray area?  I don't think so.

Is Keystone XL for public use?  Yes.  How?

The way I see it, every ambulance, every police car, every fire truck in America uses this product and it needs transporting across the country, one way or another.  Places like the WHITE HOUSE are heated with this product, a very basic example of public use of the product in need of transporting.  That is not the same as a factory, a mall or a casino that could be located somewhere / anywhere else.

The product has public use, requires transport and the pipeline is the safest way  and most efficient to transport it by a factor of something like 10 fold compared to trucking it which is used now absent the pipeline.

I don't know about the structure of the company operating the pipeline or why it is Canadian or if that matters.  I imagine they are regulated like every other public utility company.  The way it should work in my view is that the public should own the right of way and the company pays for operational rights that entice them to make the investment.  

Is this different than a public taking for private development?  Yes, in a couple of ways.  It's only a 36" pipe, an easement, an inconvenience, not a displacement as far as I know.  It is a partial taking and those also require compensation according to Supreme Court precedent.  

But the crucial difference is public use.  I made the argument above that this is a public use. But if it is not, if it is merely our crony government helping out one preferred economic interest over everyone else, well then it is only legal under the Breyer, Souter, Trump rule - which is '"wonderful" - if you are the preferred private economic interest who has the government clear out properties for you.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 07:43:04 AM
Doug,

Yes, it is a 36 inch pipe, but what does that entail? This "little" pipe requires building all total over 1000 miles of pipe. That  requires:

1. The building of roads along the route to lay down the pipe and on both sides of the pipe.

2. The ground underneath where the pipe will be laid must be prepped and solidified so that there is no chance of pipe movement outside of tolerance levels.

3. Temporary material storage sites all along the route as the pipe is being built.

4. Access roads to the pipe along around the route.

5. Additional pumping facilities  along the route to ensure adequate pressure for the oil to flow.

6. Who knows what else will be required.

As to Eminent Domain versus easement, you cite easements, but Forbes cites Eminent Domain and this Nebraska ruling on Keystone cites Eminent Domain, so ED is an issue. (Most landowners have allowed for use of easements and agreements have been made with TransCanada. But there are holdouts who do not want the pipeline. So ED comes into play.)

http://www.dominalaw.com/documents/LB-1161-Court-Order-Feb-19-2014.pdf (http://www.dominalaw.com/documents/LB-1161-Court-Order-Feb-19-2014.pdf)

You cite Kelo again, but Kelo also stated the following:

1. Under Connecticut law, ED for the private use was allowed. If the SCOTUS did not agree, they could have ruled the law invalid.

2. SCOTUS also stated that it was up to the Congress to define what Public Use was. They have not done anything yet on it, of course.

3. Since Kelo, certain states like Florida have changed their laws to prohibit private use. So this comes to a 10th Amendment States Rights issue potentially.

As to how the oil will be used, since refined oil in the US is decreasing in use, it is likely that much of the oil will be refined and exported. Of course, there is no way to determine which gallon will stay in the US and which gallon exported.

Will the oil be for public or private use? Both.

Finally, you make the comment about a casino, mall, etc being able to be built anywhere for the people's use. Take Manhattan Island for instance. Not possible.

As I have said previously, this stuff is not black and white. It is filled with gray areas everywhere. But what is important to note, like with Trump in New Jersey, the homeowner took it to court and won. The parking lot was not built.

This is how the controversies should be treated, not by just outright denials of ED. Let the courts decide.

BTW, per Trump, he was willing to pay the homeowner many times more than what the property was worth, which was $500k. She would not accept it. A few years later, she sold and moved to California. She got $500k for the property. Now you may say that Trump was not telling the truth, but as he said, even $5m at the time would have been worth it to him over litigation.  Now, Trump thanks her for not selling because it kept the deal from going through and it would have been another loser casino at this time.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 13, 2015, 08:41:32 AM
"Will the oil be for public or private use? Both."

Yes, like a hospital.  The point is that the project includes an authentic public use.  You can't arguably not use the services of a hospital or fire department or the roads or fuel that the ambulance uses because the use by its nature is unplanned.  Casinos, factories, malls, not so much.


"Finally, you make the comment about a casino, mall, etc being able to be built anywhere for the people's use. Take Manhattan Island for instance. Not possible."

No.  What I meant is that they can buy land further out where there will be willing sellers.  Or they can pay more and buy Manhattan Island for 5 times value if that will bring willing sellers and the buyer wants to pay the price.  It is not a proper public policy function for me to locate their business for them.


The constitution, by and large, lays out LIMITS on the powers that future majorities of people might want exert over their fellow citizens and their liberties, such as to be secure in their own home.  What the Kelo decision and private use eminent domain view fails to offer in my view is any limit to the abuse of this enormous, government power.  The public benefit of economic development argument is often false but more importantly has no limit to its use.  If a rich person could tear down my home and build the neighborhood standard $3 million house, construction jobs benefit and the tax revenues to the community would increase.  So what.  Does that make it right to take, force me out and transfer the ownership based on city council majority rule?  Yes under tyranny and no under freedom.  It's as simple as that.

Trump never finished the acquisition of Vera Coking's property, but it did proceed to the point of her being served notice that she will be forcibly moved.  The political point is that he has doubled down on the "wonderful" desirability of that process.  

It is also true that the condemnation-happy central planners of both New London and Atlantic were proven wrong in their economic vision of central planning.  So was the Soviet Union, Japan, Inc. and the central planners of Jonestown where he Jim Jones followers (literally) drank the Kool Aid.  But that isn't the point.  The point is that we don't want to be puppets controlled by central planners even when their projects appear to succeed.  I don't want to be offered one of their alleged thousands of Casina service jobs or Trump Tower Concierge, limo driver or big pharma tech or stadium special events vending job or anything else forcibly created against my will.  I would like to CHOOSE my job and choose my house based on the options available to me in a free market.

If I'm right about this, someone please tell Trump.  He promised he would apologize if he was ever wrong.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 11:10:21 AM
"You can't arguably not use the services of a hospital or fire department or the roads or fuel that the ambulance uses because the use by its nature is unplanned.  Casinos, factories, malls, not so much."

This is a 3rd Party Beneficiary type of argument. If this is acceptable, then so is the argument that the taxes incurred from private uses also benefits those same public services. So there would be no difference in the two.

As to moving further out where land could be bought for the use needed, where are you going to find land on Manhattan Island for a needed project in the city?  Build an island next to Manhattan? Underwater?

No one is talking about using ED to tear down one home and replace it with a $3m home. This is about commercial developments that serve to benefit the entire community and where other options are not readily available.

If your position is taken that there can never be a use of ED for any "non-public" use such as a road, then any person can stop development of something solely for their own perceived bias and there would be no recourse.

Do you think that developers want to litigate these actions? No way. They want to make reasonable offers to people and do so. Usually, these offers will be in excess of the value of the property. And if the offer is declined, then negotiations take place. Only when everything breaks down does either ED or litigation begin to take place and that is only after the local government has deemed it appropriate. Of course, one can always claim crony capitalism exists at every point, but there are reasonable actions that also occur not as a result of crony capitalism.

Guess we just have to disagree on this.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 12:23:14 PM
On other matters...the new Fox Poll with head to head match ups for CD's review....

In a head-to-head match-up

Carly Fiorina beats Hillary 42% – 39%

Jeb Bush wins by 44% to 40%

Donald Trump is up +5%, 45% to 40%.

Carson, who wallops Hillary by +11%, 50% to 39%.

Last month Hillary beat Trump 46% to 42%. That’s a +9 point jump for the Republican frontrunner. Bush has gained +2 points since September.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/10/13/epic-media-fail-trump-carson-hold-sizable-leads-over-hillary-clinton/ (http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/10/13/epic-media-fail-trump-carson-hold-sizable-leads-over-hillary-clinton/)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 12:35:47 PM
In another matter, North Carolina has changed how the delegates get split up in the Primary.

13 congressional districts = 39 delegates, 30 state delegates totaling 69 (+ 3 party delegates):

This was how it was before the change......and after the change.....

https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/proportion-4-changed-rules.jpg?w=640 (https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/proportion-4-changed-rules.jpg?w=640)

It is easy to see how the manipulation helps those candidates who have less actual vote totals. Also notice how Fiorina and Carson are effected.  As the delegate count changes to the worse, money dries up and does not allow for full continued operations.

The key points still remain

1. Win 8 primaries to get placed into nomination.
2. Prevent others from winning 8 primaries so as to have their delegates "freed" and allowed to vote for whom they desire.
3. Primary goal......STOP TRUMP from getting 8 wins.
4. If Trump gets 8 wins,  then work to get the "loser" delegates to support the non Trump 8 wins candidate.

Here is the question.........what happens if Trump is the only person to get 8 wins? Will the GOPe support him, or float a 3rd party candidate? Can the GOPe put a rule into place to deny Trump the nomination? If they can then what happens to the Trump supporters?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 06:12:27 PM
Dem debate....this is worse than painful..........at least Anderson is being a bit aggressive.

First time listening to Sanders....yawn.

Malley boring.....

Chaffee a "blockhead" of granite.....

Webb......fell asleep.....

Hillary, when does she get hit by lightening?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 13, 2015, 06:36:31 PM
Dem debate....this is worse than painful..........at least Anderson is being a bit aggressive.

First time listening to Sanders....yawn.

Malley boring.....

Chaffee a "blockhead" of granite.....

Webb......fell asleep.....

Hillary, when does she get hit by lightening?

Did Anderson advise viewers of his connexrions to the crime family ?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 07:12:43 PM
No. And neither did Hillary. (hic)

Biden will jump in after this fiasco. (hic)

I think I am going to be sick. I had a drinking game..........every time Hillary lied, I would take a drink of Johnny Walker......working on second case now.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Democrat debate #1
Post by: DougMacG on October 13, 2015, 07:21:02 PM
Nearly over, I have been listening on the radio.  PP and others, please tell more about how these people look on stage.  What was the lightening comment, her attitude or look? 

Johnny Walker probably would have been a good idea for dealing with this.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 07:33:31 PM
Oh my........Hillary just made a plea for first woman president being a good thing. 

Chaffee looks like he forgot his  dentures. Comes off looking very bad.

Webb has a shirt collar too tight which makes him look weird.

Sanders is very animated. I think that he will be deemed the winner.

O'Malley comes off looking good, but is certainly to the left.

Hillary is wearing a tent. She is trying to tone down her voice and seem less shrill. The lightening comment was when she was asked about the emails and she went into her canned response that it was all allowed and she has been totally transparent. Also with the Bengazi questions.

Sanders wants to give everyone healthcare, even illegals, and also free college to all. Good part avoid foreign entanglements.

Webb said no to a no fly zone, contradicting others.

The crowd is totally Hillary driven..............

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 13, 2015, 07:35:04 PM
Hillary just said that she is an outsider as being the first woman president. Then she contradicts herself by talking about her experience.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 13, 2015, 08:02:52 PM
Some observations overlapping pp's:

The debate quickly turned to foreign policy, not exactly a Dem strong point.  Makes Jim Webb sound relevant.  Hillary is a bigger hawk than at least one Republican running.  No one could make a coherent defense of the Obama years.

The moderator is doing a far better job than expected.  Some good questions.  Some good followups.  Pretty much sticking to relevant topics.
The crowd sounds like hired shriekers for Hillary.  Some for Bernie as well.

Bernie's agenda and all the other 'progressive' ideas need to be rebutted before they take root any deeper with young people.  I have been pushing hard for that over on another thread.

So many lies, so much misleading, so many mischaracterizations.  So many misdiagnoses of what is going wrong.

For the first time I can say that Hillary is running.   (ccp and I had a bet on that.)  She sounds far better in this setting than other settings where she kept flopping.  The veracity of her very confident sounding answers needs to be confronted.

Jim Webb:  'I am a strong supporter of nuclear energy.  It is safe.  It is clean.'
He sounds like the adult in the room.  If they nominated him, they might actually win.
(I miss having Bigdog participate in these discussions.)

Hillary seems desperate to run with President Obama's support, very careful not to split with him.  Maybe it is her defense against Biden but also she needs to use his power of incumbency.

Nice closing by O'Malley, pulling Democrats together.

Looking back to the beginning, what was the visual when Cooper asked who else can say they are not a capitalist?
No one mentioned that free market capitalism brought more people out of poverty, famine and every other malady that any other system in the history of the planet.

Game on!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 14, 2015, 07:07:18 AM
After digesting the "debate" overnight, I have changed my mind on somethings.

1. Hillary won and providing the emails don't nail her, she will be the nominee.

2. Biden is going to wait a bit more before making a decision. He needed a TKO with Hillary and that did not occur.

3. Anderson was asking Hillary questions designed to inoculate her from future attacks by opposition. This is evidenced by the lack of real follow up questions.

4. Sanders cannot win against Hillary.

5. The GOPe candidate cannot win against Hillary. Rubio/Bush will fail unless they give away the country. Cruz is too conservative.  Carson is too nice and low key. He will get eaten up. Fiorina does not have any lasting power.

6. Trump is the only hope because it will take a populist candidate to win. But the GOPe is going to stop him from being the nominee as I have outlined previously.

Expect either Hillary or Biden to be the next president. After all, buying the election is the american way.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - debate cont.
Post by: DougMacG on October 14, 2015, 07:19:29 AM
As I listened on the radio I was curious what others were seeing that might leave a different impression.  Now that I read the media and pundit reports I find out it was ALL about how they looked on stage.  Clinton won by all accounts because she looked self-assured on stage.

I would seem to me that whoever won, to each viewer,  would depend on the CONTENT of what they said, whether it was right or wrong, persuasive or unpersuasive, in the view of that voter.

It makes me wonder if there will even be a debate on the issues in the general election or if it will all be determined based on style - in the age of Obama.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What are the issues of POLICY coming out of the Dem debate that need to be addressed by the Republicans - and is anyone doing that?

Trump live tweeted the debate, also hit mostly on style.

Rubio, I see now, had a debate bingo game going that rivaled pp's drinking game.  Players needed to listen for these 16 events to happen:

Praises Planned Parenthood    - Did they skip that?

Violates religious liberties    -

Praises Obama    - They praised him only in the context of needing to go further

Supports Obamacare    - Did they skip O's greatest accomplishment?

Host mentions private server    - Didn't come up?  Consensus that they don't want to talk about the damn emails.

Blames free enterprise    - Hillary, we needed to save capitalism from itself.  Bernie: capitalism is casino gambling.

Increasing federal spending:    - At every turn, on every issue.

Blames Republicans     - Yes.  Everything is still Bush's, from the economy to foreign policy.  Bush screwed up Centerfield so badly no one can play it.

Attacks FoxNews

Higher energy costs   - Unspoken result of all their energy policies

Panders to Unions    - Have they lost their clout?

Proposes higher taxes    - All the time!  The freeloading rich.  It never came up that they already repealed Bush's tax rate cuts on the rich and added two dozen more layers of taxes.

Blasts GOP donors    - REally not much about Republicans except them blocking the agenda.

Commentator mentions Clinton Foundation    - Didn't come up!

Someone mentions Benghazi    - Webb specifically said he wasn't talking about that; he was opposing the Libyan intervention.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is there a DEMe conspiracy that these people are all up there specifically to make H look better, play to her strengths, ignore her weaknesses?

If you wanted to win, wouldn't you try to bring the fropntrunmner down a notch?  

Webb didn't follow the script, actually opposed her record as Sec of State, was kept out of the conversation as much as the moderator could.

Watch for 3 of them to disappear off the stage for the next event.
________________________________________________

PP:
"1. Hillary won and providing the emails don't nail her, she will be the nominee.
2. Biden is going to wait a bit more before making a decision. He needed a TKO with Hillary and that did not occur.
3. Anderson was asking Hillary questions designed to inoculate her from future attacks by opposition. This is evidenced by the lack of real follow up questions.
4. Sanders cannot win against Hillary."

I agree with you up to this point.   )






Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 14, 2015, 07:50:58 AM
I heard it was worth watching because of the sexual tension between Bernie and Anderson Cooper.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 14, 2015, 08:00:00 AM
I am actually quite depressed this morning after listening last night. I am very glad that I will likely not be alive 20 years from now so I won't be able to see what has become of the country.

Last night was pure socialism on display. The true contenders worship at the alter of Marx and it showed. The media is fully in the tank for Her Highness (HH). They agree fully with her positions and will not do anything to prevent HH from being elected.  The DEMe definitely exists to fully promote HH in her quest. Debbie Wasserman Schultz will do anything necessary, and in public, to ensure HH wins.

It is my belief that whether it is HH or the GOPe, the Cold War is back on. In fact, I expect to see that there will be at least one plane shot down in Syria, rapidly escalating tensions with Russia.

As long as politicians can spend other people's money and give it to their supporters, truly bought and paid for, the US cannot continue to exist as a viable country.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 14, 2015, 08:52:00 AM
Hillary will be the nominee.

Webb reminded me of my father's era, when the Dem party was full of honorable Dems like him.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 14, 2015, 09:10:24 AM
PP:  As long as politicians can spend other people's money and give it to their supporters, truly bought and paid for, the US cannot continue to exist as a viable country.

That's right and that view will prevail unless confronted with its shortcomings and unless the voters are seriously offered a better vision.

The time to be depressed about losing this election is Wed morning, Nov 9 of next year, not in the early minutes of the first quarter.


CD:  Hillary will be the nominee.    - Yes.  I now owe ccp dinner and lunch on my failed predictions while we fight over breakfast.

Webb reminded me of my father's era, when the Dem party was full of honorable Dems like him.

   - That's right.  Webb is a Democrat but has some nice qualities and relatively honest positions on the issues.  You would think a number of pragmatic Dems and non-Republican independents would jump on his campaign as an alternative to Bernie Socialist and the return of Clinton crime and corruption.  He is no flake, was Secretary of the Navy, is right about China, and he defeated a rising, prominent, incumbent Republican to win his swing state of Virginia Senate seat.  By electing to not run for a second term, he is the closest of the bunch to being a true outsider, certainly outside the DEMe, while having served on the inside enough to know his way around.  He is the Dem that R's would have the hardest time running against.  Too bad no Dems can see that.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 14, 2015, 10:33:11 AM
"For the first time I can say that Hillary is running.   (ccp and I had a bet on that.)  She sounds far better in this setting than other settings where she kept flopping."

Does anyone think for one second she didn't know the questions in advance?   

Yep there certainly WAS a conspiracy to inoculate Hilliary from the illegal activity with the emails much less cover-up of Benghazi.

For Sanders to stand there and with a straight face tell us lying, integrity, illegal activity is NOT important to be concerned with for someone to be the leading role model of this nation is sickening.  They are "f" pigs.

Vasserman Schultz with her great big smile.  The party knows she is their only hope so naturally lying, breaking multiple laws, and the rest just is going to be ignored.

I am sure the disgusting circus of Clinton talking about someone else jeopardizing our national security.  Or her comments about others on the stage changing their positions and there was more that I must have blocked out of my mind.

"I now owe ccp dinner and lunch on my failed predictions while we fight over breakfast" 

This is the first bet I (so far) have ever one that I am disgusted about! 

"Webb reminded me of my father's era, when the Dem party was full of honorable Dems like him."

I have read part of Joe Califano's bioptic as LBJ's aid while he was the President.  There were some of the same games the Dems play now in his politics but nothing as dishonest and communist as now. 

I don't think he would have opened up the borders to hordes of tens of millions of foreigners who don't love America like today.   And the thought that he would refuse to call out radical Islamist (like the communist we have today) is simply impossible to imagine.



 
Title: Dems: Now officially socialist
Post by: G M on October 14, 2015, 10:42:40 AM
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/359520.php

Worth reading.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 14, 2015, 11:06:56 AM
Looks like Ace has our same feelings.

As to being depressed about this, when you have an ineffective offense, and a group of candidates who are too PC, it does not matter whether it is the opening minutes or the final two minutes. The GOPe is going to lose.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 14, 2015, 01:13:36 PM
CCP:  "Does anyone think for one second she didn't know the questions in advance?   
Yep there certainly WAS a conspiracy to inoculate Hilliary from the illegal activity with the emails much less cover-up of Benghazi."

PP previously:  "Anderson was asking Hillary questions designed to inoculate her from future attacks by opposition. This is evidenced by the lack of real follow up questions."


And inoculating him, the phony questioner. The format of it stuck in my mind.  Cooper asked her the tough question that everyone knew he had to ask.  She spoke for a minute but failed to answer it.  Then he asked ONE tough followup telling her she didn't answer it.  And she failed to address it again, and it was dropped it as if it had been asked and answered or that any further pursuit would be seen as bullying.  She seemed to know she would face that exact sequence on those two issues, email server and changing positions (TPP etc.).  When no opponent picked up on it, it was over.  Not because she addressed it but because she had no opponent or real questioner.  Less scripted, Bernie looked to be blindsided on guns and Chaffee destroyed on Glass Steagall (banking law).

There was no debate except on a couple of side issues with side candidates.  It was just a series of interviews.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 14, 2015, 01:36:31 PM
If you look at this from a DEMe perspective, this "debate" accomplished exactly what the DEMe wanted to do. It essentially eliminated the three dwarfs. It also pretty much eliminated the Sanders push, especially when he blew off the email issue.

This also put a crimp into Biden's plans. He was hoping for a TKO that did not occur. So it now is incumbent upon what the next polls read to determine what he does. Look to see if Hillary still retains an edge against the GOP candidates one on one. If she drops further and it can be perceived a result of the debate, then Biden will run. If HH actually picks up support and looks better, Biden will let it go and leave it to HH.

(This is more fun than a 10k word article I am doing now on HAMP.)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 14, 2015, 05:38:01 PM
Here is a release from CNN on the most recent release of polling data for Nevada and South Carolina. Trump is leading big in each.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/285056152/ORC-South-Carolina-and-Nevada-Republican-Polls-October-14-2015 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/285056152/ORC-South-Carolina-and-Nevada-Republican-Polls-October-14-2015)

Here are the states being covered so far.  

Trump Leading Big
North Carolina
South Carolina
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Connecticut
Virginia
Georgia

Trump Ahead
Ohio (Trump 23, Carson 18, Kasich 13, Cruz 11, Fiorina 10, Rubio 7)
Iowa (Trump 24, Carson 19, Fiorina 8, Cruz 6)
Texas (Trump 21, Cruz 16, Carson 12)

Carson Ahead
Louisiana


Toss Up
Pennsylvania (Trump 24, Carson 23,  3 different polls with Mercy and PPP showing race equal. Quinnipac showing Trump leading by 7)
California (Toss up with Trump 17, Carson 15, Fiorina 13, Rubio 10, Bush 8)
Wisconsin ( Trump 16, Carson 14, Rubio 12)

Looking at the results so far, Trump has 8 states pretty much wrapped up and should have his name placed into nomination at the convention. No one else has a state at all, but Carson is fighting hard against Trump in 4 others.

The Road Map

Looking at things strategically, the only GOPe course right now is to take Trump out of the race in some way or another. There just simply no other option for the GOPe at this time. If Trump can not be taken out, then the options become very limited.

1. Keep Cruz, Carson and Fiorina in the race so as to pull from Trump. This assumes that Carson and Fiorina support comes more from Trump than other candidates. If not, then it hurts the GOPe by them remaining in. But even then, some of their support will go to Trump.

2. Get rid of the dwarfs and hope that their support will go to a main stream candidate.

3. Get Rubio in a position to pick up support from the dwarfs and Jeb. Hope that this can get Rubio into position to challenge Trump and win at least 8 primaries.

Key actions now are to attack Trump and re-position Rubio.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 14, 2015, 07:13:51 PM
"Looking at the results so far, Trump has 8 states pretty much wrapped up ..."

... if the election were held today...  but it wasn't.   :wink:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 14, 2015, 08:43:51 PM
Again, we must remember the difference between polls of Rep primary voters and of general election voters.   The former gets one to the latter, but the latter determines who gets the White House.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 15, 2015, 08:00:43 AM
"The Dark Side is strong with these two."   :evil:

New Rutger's Poll has Trump in the 30's and both Carson and Rubio behind him in the single digits. So add New Jersey to the Trump column.

I believe that I was writing about getting the nomination and where things stand, not the actual election. And at this point, the nomination is the most important part. So the question becomes how Trump can be derailed. What has happened so far.

1. Fox tried desperately to take Trump out in the first debate. This failed miserably and proved that Trump had real appeal. His support increased to where he began to lead all other candidates.

2. CNN tried in the next debate, turning it into the moderators and the other candidates against Trump. The result was a bit of an increase in support for Snarly and a few others, but it was not enough to prove that anyone else other than Carson posed a threat. After a few days, the upward movement ceased.

3.  The media then began to attack Trump continuously, especially Fox. Trump turned the tables against them by threatening to boycott Fox. Fox has now quit the incessant personal attacks, but they do take every opportunity to show the "worst polls" and provide airtime to the Rove anti Trump forces. Rick Lowry screwed this strategy up with his Snarly cut off Trump's balls comment.

3. The media then began to promote first Snarly and then Rubio as viable candidates against Trump. Snarly is now ignored and Rubio is not getting any real traction.

4. The next chance to TKO Trump is the CNBC debate later this month. The probable plan of attack will be to focus upon policy and try to make Trump look totally uninformed on policy matters. So far, this avenue has not worked in non-debate arenas so it remains to be seen what will happen in the debate.

After the debate, the only remaining avenue appears to be endless advertising buys attacking Trump. This will be the SUPER PACs engaging in this tactic. The Chamber of Commerce has dedicated up to $100m to go after Trump. The Koch Brothers will be next and who knows who else.

This raises the question of how Trump will respond to the adds and how the people who support him will react. Trump will commit his own money to advertising buys attacking the SUPER PACS. The Trump supporters will not be swayed. So the SUPER PAC buys will have to be aimed at trying to sway non Trump supporters of the non viable candidates to go for Rubio/Jeb or whoever.

This has to be done before the first primaries take place. Trump must be eliminated or else the first 4 primaries will establish his strength and prove him to be almost unstoppable up to Mar 15. After that, the strategy is to get one other candidate at least 8 primary wins to have another name placed into nomination. That way, "released delegates" can move to the other candidate to blunt Trump.



Title: Punch back twice as hard!
Post by: G M on October 15, 2015, 08:04:35 AM
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/10/photos-state-police-eject-black-lives-matter-latino-protesters-from-richmond-trump-rally/

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 15, 2015, 08:16:44 AM
Notice that it was a few protesters only. If this had been with a Sanders or Hillary event, they would have caved to the protesters. Instead, Trump simply says "That is Freedom of Speech" and then continues with his speech.

BTW, the video of the guy who it was claimed was spit upon appears inconclusive. There is no spittle seen and the protester did not appear to react. But what is known is that the protester admits to being from Lima.  Can I seen his Green Card?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 15, 2015, 10:28:47 AM
" But what is known is that the protester admits to being from Lima"

Could anyone imagine what would happen in Peru if an American did this?
Title: Coulter: Hispanics Won't Vote Republican...
Post by: objectivist1 on October 15, 2015, 10:54:15 AM
HISPANICS WON'T VOTE GOP

Why pandering to Latinos is a losing proposition for Republicans.

October 15, 2015  Ann Coulter


At the Democratic debate on Tuesday night, Sen. Bernie Sanders bragged about getting a "D-minus" from the National Rifle Association (which was also Lincoln Chafee's GPA in high school).

Nonetheless, Hillary Clinton attacked Sanders for having voted against an insane bill that would have held gun manufacturers and sellers legally liable for the behavior of anyone who uses one of their guns in a crime.

I would be open to such a law -- but only after we pass a law holding psychiatrists liable for crimes committed by their patients; lawyers for crimes committed by their clients; and sanctuary cities for crimes committed by the illegal immigrants they released in violation of federal law.

Gun dealers are a lot more careful about whom they sell guns to than psychiatrists, lawyers and sanctuary cities are about the criminals they loose on the public.

In several recent mass shootings, the psycho was at least temporarily delayed when gun shops refused to sell him guns -- such as the Colorado gun range owner who put his whole staff on red alert in case James Holmes ever wandered in, simply on the basis of having heard Holmes' strange voicemail message.

As Sanders himself once said, holding gun sellers liable for the crimes of their customers would be like holding "a hammer company responsible if somebody beats somebody over the head with a hammer." (As happened to Lincoln Chafee.)

To cheers from the Democratic audience, Hillary denounced Sanders for his vote against imposing unprecedented liability on gun makers, saying, "It's time the entire country stood up against the NRA."

Sanders bowed and scraped, finally saying he'd "take another look" at the gun bill.

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley bragged about passing the strictest gun-control laws in the country (which explains why Baltimore is such a safe city). Asked which "enemy" he was proudest of, O'Malley said: "The NRA." (Loud applause -- especially from the radical Muslims in the audience!)

I gather Democrats have written off the gun vote.

Plenty of Democrats own firearms -- or at least have armed bodyguards, such as Rosie O'Donnell, Jim Carrey, Michael Moore and Michael Bloomberg.

But Democrats have made a calculated decision that they are not going to win a majority of gun owners, so they denounce them with abandon, making no concessions at all.

Why don't Republicans do that with the Hispanic vote? Somehow, the left has convinced the GOP to obsess over winning people who will never give us a majority of their votes, which is the exact opposite of the Democrats' strategy for themselves.

I would wager that Democrats get more votes from NRA members than Republicans do from La Raza members (0). But try to imagine a Republican answering the "enemies" question: "La Raza."

Republicans don't need to treat Hispanics with the contempt that Democrats treat gun-owners. We do not dislike Hispanics. We do not dislike any group.

We just have to protect Americans first -- American jobs, American taxes and American social programs being bankrupted by immigrants . Most voters don't think it's an outrageous imposition to ask people to obey our laws.

Donald Trump opened his campaign talking about Mexican rapists, pledged to build a wall and deport illegals -- and has soared to the top of the polls.

The massive Hispanic blowback consists of this: Trump is getting about the same percentage of the Hispanic vote as Romney did.

I have no doubt that the 73 percent of Hispanics who will be voting against Trump are prepared to be much angrier about it than the 73 percent who voted against Romney. But the result won't look any different on election night. Voting machines don't register angry glints in people's eyes.

On the other hand, by driving up the white vote -- to say nothing of the black vote -- we will see a difference in the Republicans' box score on election night.

The Holy Grail year for Republicans is supposed to be 2004, when President Bush won a record-breaking 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. He had to turn his entire White House into a Hispandering operation to do that -- and he still lost the Hispanic vote.

It's crazy to deform our whole platform in pursuit of some group that won't give us at least 51 percent of its vote, anyway. The Democrats ignore white voters and they were 73.7 percent of the electorate in 2012. Hispanics were only 8.4 percent that year.

I haven't seen an estimate of the electoral percentage of gun-owners, but with one-third to half of all Americans owning guns, it's a lot more than 8.4 percent.

Democrats know not to fritter time on constituencies they can't win, but have buffaloed Republicans into wasting resources on a quixotic bid to win a slightly larger -- but still losing -- percentage of the 8.4 percent of the electorate that is the Hispanic vote.

You've been conned, GOP. You are never going to beat the Democrats at sucking up to foreigners. And your conservative base will flee.

The GOP should expend precisely as much effort fawning over the Hispanic vote as Democrats do over the gun vote, the pro-life vote and the white vote.

Republicans have got to stop believing The New York Times line that the only honorable votes are from minorities. It's honorable to get votes from taxpayers, too.



Title: Re: Coulter: Hispanics Won't Vote Republican...
Post by: DougMacG on October 15, 2015, 12:37:53 PM
One of my new friends is both gay and of Mexican descent by way of California.  We talked politics for the first time yesterday.  He kept saying he was Democrat, would end up voting for Hillary if she's the nominee.  I kept saying we have a year left for me to change his mind.   I told him I liked Rubio.  He kept telling me Rubio is a fake-Hispanic, meaning he looks, talks (thinks) like a white guy, meaning he has no advantage over other R's pursuing Mexican and other Hispanics.  We will see about that.  Language at least gives him an opportunity to give it a try and the softer stance on immigration will be a benefit.  As gay, he thinks R's will take his rights away, whatever that means.,  I told him they want to give him more rights - got a blank look back on that.

In another conversation with a black elderly woman tenant who has become a good friend, she said she is a Democrat.  Pressed on that, I could only determine it was something hereditary, she was born that way and wouldn't re-examine it.

Nonetheless, we can't write off entire groups who are not benefiting from their monolithic vote for failure.  We need to confront it and sell our alternative at every turn.  Broken record, but it only takes a small change to start in each demographic group to win and change the direction of the country.

No we don't have to pander to do it.  But we also can't ignore, exclude or forget about them.  These are often the people who would benefit the most from an economic turnaround.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 15, 2015, 02:00:20 PM
Doug,

For the vast majority of these people it is about the money.

They want the socialist welfare state.

They want the rest of us to pay for them.

They won't tell us that but that is it.

Don't you agree?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 15, 2015, 03:57:38 PM
3rd Quarter Fundraising


Jeb Bush  (Currently Polling 6% Reuters Average)
Raised: $13,384,832
Cash on hand: $10,271,229

Ben Carson  (Currently Polling 20% Average)
Raised: About $20 million

Ted Cruz (Currently Polling 6% Average)
Raised: $12.2 million
Spent: $7.2 million
Cash on hand: $13.5 million.

Marco Rubio (Currently Polling 6.5% Average)
Raised: About $6 million
Cash on hand: $10,975,988.78

Carly Fiorina (Currently Polling 4.7% Average)
Raised: $6.8 million
Spent: $2.2 million
Cash on hand: $5.5 million

Chris Christie (Currently Polling 2.3% Average)
Raised: $4.2 million

Rand Paul (Currently Polling 3.1% Average)
Raised: $2.5 million
Cash on hand: $2 million

Bobby Jindal (Currently Polling .06% Average)
Raised: $579,438.39
Spent: $832,214.02
Cash on hand: $260,939.01

Donald Trump
Raised $3.9 million

The key is the burn rate. Apparently Carson has a heavy burn rate, as does Jeb.  How much cash is needed monthly for a large organization and ground game in each state? Has to be at least $2.5m to stay in the game.  We should expect the dwarfs to begin dropping out soon.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 15, 2015, 03:59:52 PM
 :-D  Trump and Carson both just told CNBC that if the debate is over 2 hours, commercials included, they would not participate. There goes the ratings...........

Watch CNBC panic.
Watch CNBC run.
Watch CNBC cave in.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 15, 2015, 09:51:23 PM
Doug,
For the vast majority of these people it is about the money.
They want the socialist welfare state.
They want the rest of us to pay for them.
They won't tell us that but that is it.
Don't you agree?

Naively, I still believe that if given the choice for their children and grandchildren, 51-54% would choose a dynamic, growing, flourishing, opportunity society with an adequate safety net, over collective poverty declining into ruin. 

It's all about how you frame the (Nov 2016) push poll.  Even with the premise presented that we want to put black people 'back in chains', castrate gay people, banish Latin people, take away Grandma's meds and steal everything produced for ourselves, still around 48% can see through the liberal BS.
Title: Brilliant!
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 02:04:12 AM
http://cdn.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thatsbrilliant.jpg

(http://cdn.pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/thatsbrilliant.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - CNBC Caved
Post by: ppulatie on October 16, 2015, 07:19:37 AM
Yep, CNBC caved into Trump. It will be 2 hours of debate.

Advertising had been sold at high rates based upon Trump appearing. Without Trump, CNBC would have had to drop rates and refund money.
Title: About the electorate in 2015
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 07:24:34 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/10/15/dems_revolution_already_is_here_128425.html

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 16, 2015, 08:31:25 AM
change "illegal" to "undocumented" to "dreamer"

change "global warming" to "climate change"

change "gun control" to "gun safety"

One can hear the damn liberal university schyster professor thinking to him/herself how smart he is by using the child psychology on us.   Nothing more the simple propaganda and lies basically.

Unfortunately the libs control the airways and media so the overt propaganda is presented as fact and truth.

Yep we are screwed.




Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 16, 2015, 08:37:23 AM
change "illegal" to "undocumented" to "dreamer"

change "global warming" to "climate change"

change "gun control" to "gun safety"

One can hear the damn liberal university schyster professor thinking to him/herself how smart he is by using the child psychology on us.   Nothing more the simple propaganda and lies basically.

Unfortunately the libs control the airways and media so the overt propaganda is presented as fact and truth.

Yep we are screwed.

And 'requires subsidy' now means: "affordable".
Title: Webb and the debate
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 09:20:32 AM
http://neveryetmelted.com/2015/10/14/james-webbs-debate/

Choices.
Title: Re: Webb and the debate
Post by: DougMacG on October 16, 2015, 09:49:37 AM
http://neveryetmelted.com/2015/10/14/james-webbs-debate/

Choices.

Interesting situation Webb is in and strange that he has no followers.  I used to fear the centric, reasonable sounding Dems, but now they are homeless.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 16, 2015, 10:16:35 AM
Could it be that those centric and reasonable sounding Dems will go to Trump in the general election? Word is that he is getting significant Reagan Democrat support...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 10:19:41 AM
Could it be that those centric and reasonable sounding Dems will go to Trump in the general election? Word is that he is getting significant Reagan Democrat support...

The Free Shit Army is now the vast majority of dems. Reagan Democrats? Both of them are watching Matlock right now.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 16, 2015, 10:25:52 AM
Could it be that those centric and reasonable sounding Dems will go to Trump in the general election? Word is that he is getting significant Reagan Democrat support...

This could be, if there are any.  It's hard to know where Trump is getting all his support from.  I am limited to studying it here with a sample size of one.  )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 10:32:20 AM
Could it be that those centric and reasonable sounding Dems will go to Trump in the general election? Word is that he is getting significant Reagan Democrat support...

This could be, if there are any.  It's hard to know where Trump is getting all his support from.  I am limited to studying it here with a sample size of one.  )

If you have access to any Moonies, Hari Krishnas or Obama fans that just woke up from a coma that started in late 2009, there are similar dynamics to observe.  ; )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, The Obama Economy and the Dem Surge to Leftist Economics
Post by: DougMacG on October 16, 2015, 11:03:16 AM
Here is Bernie, but the point is that they all basically agreed with him:

“I think most Americans understand that our country today faces a series of unprecedented crises,”...  “The middle class of this country for the last 40 years has been disappearing. Millions of Americans are working longer hours for lower wages, and yet almost all of the new income and wealth being created is going to the top one percent.”

Sanders always frames his complaint over a longer period than the Obama Presidency and neglects to mention that Democrats including Hillary and Obama controlled the domestic agenda in Washington via the Pelosi-Reid Congress for the two years before Obama took office.  Still, what can be said of Obama economics and what should have been driven home in 2012 about President Obama and his economic agenda: he made it worse.

The answer according to everyone on the stage was - do more of everything that made it worse.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, The Obama Economy and the Dem Surge to Leftist Economics
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 11:06:40 AM
He bases his position on all the places where marxism has worked, like....um....well....


Here is Bernie, but the point is that they all basically agreed with him:

“I think most Americans understand that our country today faces a series of unprecedented crises,”...  “The middle class of this country for the last 40 years has been disappearing. Millions of Americans are working longer hours for lower wages, and yet almost all of the new income and wealth being created is going to the top one percent.”

Sanders always frames his complaint over a longer period than the Obama Presidency and neglects to mention that Democrats including Hillary and Obama controlled the domestic agenda in Washington via the Pelosi-Reid Congress for the two years before Obama took office.  Still, what can be said of Obama economics and what should have been driven home in 2012 about President Obama and his economic agenda: he made it worse.

The answer according to everyone on the stage was - do more of everything that made it worse.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, The Obama Economy and the Dem Surge to Leftist Economics
Post by: DougMacG on October 16, 2015, 01:44:43 PM
He bases his position on all the places where marxism has worked, like....um....well....


Was I the only one who took Bernie's wish for the USA to be more like Denmark to be racist?

The Danish population is extremely homogenous. As of 2000, 97 percent are Danes (ethnic Scandinavians), and the rest are Inuit (Eskimo), Faroese, and Germans.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Denmark.aspx

Bernie, America 2016 is not your grandfather's Vermont.

As in Sweden, the world's most generous safety net works (worked) only in a monolithic culture that includes a universal work ethic.  In the less productive sectors in America, that went the way of the choomg gang.  In Norway, oil revenues balance the equation.  Let's drill offshore and in Alaska to copy the Scandinavians.  In all of them, add in a dose of over run borders and the apple cart tips very easily on its side.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, The Obama Economy and the Dem Surge to Leftist Economics
Post by: G M on October 16, 2015, 01:56:47 PM
He bases his position on all the places where marxism has worked, like....um....well....


Was I the only one who took Bernie's wish for the USA to be more like Denmark to be racist?

The Danish population is extremely homogenous. As of 2000, 97 percent are Danes (ethnic Scandinavians), and the rest are Inuit (Eskimo), Faroese, and Germans.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Denmark.aspx

Bernie, America 2016 is not your grandfather's Vermont.

As in Sweden, the world's most generous safety net works (worked) only in a monolithic culture that includes a universal work ethic.  In the less productive sectors in America, that went the way of the choomg gang.  In Norway, oil revenues balance the equation.  Let's drill offshore and in Alaska to copy the Scandinavians.  In all of them, add in a dose of over run borders and the apple cart tips very easily on its side.

This Denmark?

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/425544/somethings-awesome-state-denmark-kevin-d-williamson

Title: Democratic Socialism
Post by: G M on October 17, 2015, 06:30:00 AM
http://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2015/10/Greek-Socialism-copy.jpg

(http://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2015/10/Greek-Socialism-copy.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 17, 2015, 04:29:33 PM
I have mentioned several times about the GOPe strategy to get Bush nominated by using "splitter" candidates. These candidates are designed to solely draw off votes from non Bush candidates so that Bush could win with less than 25% of the vote.

Another strategy used by the GOPe involves changing the delegate awards in  each primary. Now, some people who have been following changes to delegates in different states have found something of interest.

Virginia requires a candidate to get 5000 signatures from registered republicans in the state and of which 200 must be from each county in the state. Only Jeb and Trump are engaging in signature gathering activities.

This same thing is going on in Illinois, Wisconsin and Florida.

Iowa and New Hampshire have Jeb and Trump working hard on this, with Carson, Cruz and Fiorina doing some. Nevada is similar to Iowa in activities.

After the Feb primary states, the only signature gathering activity in states are from the Jeb team and Trump team.

What does this mean?

There are only a few weeks left for vote gathering in the early states, and only a bit longer for the March states. Why are Paul, Kasich, Rubio and the others not engaged in any such activity? One cannot do this in a weekend or two.

Why are the Jeb and Trump teams the only ones active in all the states? Why not Rubio, Carson, Cruz and Fiorina?

For Rubio, Carson, Cruz and Fiorina, it is likely the issue of money. They must get the "boost" from early primary wins to gather enough money in to move forward. (SUPER PACS cannot engage in this type of activity. It must be done from the campaigns.) With Paul, Kasich and the others, it is either ego or other political considerations.

Rubio may be counting on Jeb to drop out, especially since it seems that their "friendly relationship" is gone. If Jeb goes, then Rubio could get campaign donations to further build the state origanizations, but without this money, he cannot otherwise proceed.

This may also explain why Trump is only focused upon the Jeb campaign. Only Jeb has the funds to move forward, but even now, it appears that those donations are drying up, and with the Bush burn rate, there may not be even to  continue moving forward either.

Title: Establishment Finally Accepts Trump Could Win Nomination...
Post by: objectivist1 on October 19, 2015, 07:33:20 AM
The Establishment Thinks the Unthinkable: Trump Could Win the Nomination

 ELIANA JOHNSON - National Review Online    October 19, 2015

It began as whispers in hushed corners: Could it ever happen? And now, just three months from the Iowa caucuses, members of the Republican establishment are starting to give voice to an increasingly common belief that Donald Trump, once dismissed as joke, a carnival barker, and a circus freak, might very well win the nomination.

“Trump is a serious player for the nomination at this time,” says Ed Rollins, who served as the national campaign director for Reagan’s 1984 reelection and as campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee in  2008. Rollins is not alone in his views.

“Trump has sustained a lead for longer than there are days left” before voting begins in Iowa, says Steve Schmidt, who managed John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign. “For a long time,” Schmidt says, “you were talking to people in Washington, and there was a belief that there was an expiration date to this, as if there’s some secret group of people who have the ability to control the process.” But for Trump, a dip in the polls after the second debate that many predicted was the beginning of the end has arrested; and for nearly four months, he has remained at the top of the polls.

Now, long-time GOP strategists who were expecting Trump’s act to wear thin a couple of months ago worry that he can’t be stopped, or at least that he has a significant chance of winning the nomination.

It’s a drastic departure from the near-universal sentiment of the Republican establishment voiced when Trump announced his candidacy in June. In the weeks following his campaign launch, many Republicans fretted not that Trump would win the nomination, but that his incendiary remarks about illegal immigrants would irreparably harm the GOP brand. (The former Bush-administration press secretary Ari Fleischer compared Trump to a roadside accident. “Everybody pulls over to see the mess,” he told Politico in late June. “And the risk for the party is he tarnishes everybody.”) Now, many members of the GOP establishment are concerned less that Trump will hurt the brand than that he’ll become its standard-bearer.

“I know all of us dismissed Trump, early on, all of the so-called experts,” Fox News’s Chris Wallace said Sunday. “‘Summer fling,’ ‘momentary amusement.’” But Wallace, who interviewed Trump late last week and aired portions of the interview on his show Sunday, said he finds himself feeling differently now. “As I watched that interview and I heard what he had to say . . . I am beginning to believe he could be elected president of the United States,” he said.

Wallace was struck by the sheer force of Trump’s personality, but there are other reasons to think he has a real shot at the nomination. Poll after poll this election cycle has registered the distaste of Republican voters for political experience; they prefer an outsider with a fresh approach to a battle-tested veteran. For instance, the latest survey from the Pew Research Center, published in early October, shows that by more than a two-to-one margin, Republican and Republican-leaning voters prefer a candidate with new ideas to one with a proven record. That’s a change: Republicans have traditionally preferred governors to senators, for example, because they prized their executive experience. And Pew notes that this is a shift in attitude that coincided with Trump’s ascension. “Just five months ago,” the polling company writes, “GOP voters valued experience and a proven record over new ideas, 57 percent to 36 percent.”

Trump is not the only candidate who lacks political experience, and Pew’s findings help to explain why the retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is surging in the polls as well. But Trump has done something they haven’t, something that now-former presidential candidate Scott Walker demonstrated is difficult to do — sustain the momentum he developed in the weeks after he launched his campaign.

Republican strategists say that momentum is key to notching wins in the early primary states, which themselves are essential to securing victories later on. “He has the potential to win Iowa and New Hampshire and more,” says Rollins. “No one seems to be developing to challenge him at this time.” “Momentum matters a great deal,” says Schmidt. “You have to win in the early states to win in the larger mega-state primaries that fold out over the balance of March and April.”

Skeptics remain. Stuart Stevens, who served as a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, notes that Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire haven’t elected renegade candidates when they’ve had an opportunity to do so, as recently as last year. “I think a reasonable way to look at this is to look at who gets nominated for governor or Senate in these states,” Stevens says. In Iowa, the mustachioed Terry Branstad, whose political network is largely supportive of New Jersey governor Chris Christie, is the longest-serving governor in state history. In the 2014 Senate primary, Joni Ernst, then a state senator, beat back challenges from both the right and the left. New Hampshire elected the moderate Kelly Ayotte to the Senate in 2010. “So,” Stevens asks, “could Donald Trump win a nomination for the Senate or governor in Iowa or New Hampshire?” “Not in a million years.”

Then again, the early states have surprised before.

As Trump has become a more permanent fixture on the political scene, other questions linger. Can he vary his routine? Is he serious about building a ground game? Over the past few weeks, the Trump campaign has begun at least to hint that it is interested in rounding out the picture of its candidate. Trump’s four children opened up to People magazine about their father for an article published earlier this month; on the cover, Trump shared the spotlight with his wife and his youngest son, Barron. Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, and his son, Eric, have begun making television appearances on behalf of their father. (Showing that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, the younger Trump told Fox News’s Greta Van Susteren last week: “Everything he touches turns to gold.”) Profiles of Trump’s wife, the former Melania Knauss, and of Ivanka, published in the New York Times and Politico magazine, respectively, have also provided glimpses of Trump the family man.

And while Trump is beginning to make traditional campaign expenditures and build a ground game in the early-voting states, he is spending less on these measures and undertaking them later than other campaigns, which have been putting the gears in motion for the past year or longer. Typically, in caucus states such as Iowa and Nevada, these sorts of political fundamentals matter. But Trump has already defied supposedly immutable laws of politics. Trump’s supporters will surely cheer the emerging consensus, but, as Trump would be the first to point out, the establishment has been wrong before. Right now, it might find consolation in that fact.

— Eliana Johnson is Washington bureau chief of National Review.



Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425750/gop-establishment-thinks-trump-could-win?target=topic&tid=1707
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, General election polling, Trump loses to Sanders by 9?
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2015, 08:22:34 AM
All disclaimers disclaimed, such as all sampling errors and that this is early, more than a year before the election etc.  Still, we look for trends and patterns as the candidates have now been running for a significant period of time.

CNN latest:
Clinton 50, Trump 45   
Carson 48, Clinton 47

Sanders 53, Trump 44   
Carson 48, Sanders 46

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

My take:
1. If Trump is the known and Carson is the unknown, people prefer the unknown to Trump. 

2. If people are following this somewhat closely, they are liking Bernie Sanders by 9 points over Trump and not just because he is Democrat, since Carson is beating Sanders.

3. Hillary, post debate, is still an injured candidate.  I took their Biden polling to be premature and unrealistic, he polls about 5 points better than Hillary, which to me means anyone but Hillary in the general election.  They just can't find anyone but Hillary.

4. If a Bumbling Biden can be leading (at the link) as he runs for Obama's third failing term, it is most crucial that Republicans choose their most persuasive, most articulate, most charismatic nominee bogged down with the least amount of baggage and distractions, that can reach people directly and reach into all the currently non-Republican demographic groups and pull out a few more votes than usual.  This is not a resume election; it is potentially a change of direction election.  You change direction in Washington by changing minds and votes out in the heartland.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on October 19, 2015, 08:30:17 AM
I think a Trump-Carson ticket would be excellent.  Witness the fact that multiple black pastors in Atlanta of all places - have come out strongly in support of Trump.  This simply doesn't normally happen.  Trump IS reaching into traditionally non-Republican groups and garnering support.  Carson I think, understands the Islamic threat and ideology better than Trump, and this is important.  Trump needs to educate himself on Islam and sharia law.  He appears to be ignorant of the fact that both are diametrically opposed to the U.S. Constitution.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 08:54:41 AM
And in all fairness to counter CNN, the Fox poll released on last Tuesday shows....

Trump 45, Clinton 40

Carson 50, Clinton 39

It does not show match ups with Sanders.....

What I look for in polling when Carson is up as to what part of the segment polled is evangelicals. The higher the evangelicals polled, the better Carson does. The internals really tell the story at the moment the poll is taken.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2015, 09:14:46 AM
"What I look for in polling when Carson is up as to what part of the segment polled is evangelicals. The higher the evangelicals polled, the better Carson does."

This is a good point.  Also the general R or D bias in polling.  What we are looking for at this point is relative strength or weakness which seems consistent between the two polls.  Carson is polling stronger than Trump (or Bush) in general election matchups, and Rubio slightly ahead of Carson.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Who can win the general election will very quickly become a top criteria.  Trump has a good eye for getting out of a good investment before it tanks.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/donald-trump-2016-quit-business-deals-213264

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 09:31:34 AM
Ahhh, Political............is this reason #312 or 313 why Trump will bail out in the next few weeks?

Though Carson right now polls better in the general election than Trump, everything at this time also goes to who can win the nomination. At this point, Trump leads in all but two states where Carson is leading. The problem is how to derail Trump in the primaries. So far, nothing has worked. And unless Trump really screws up, there is little to indicate that anyone can derail him.

Can Carson work with both sides if he is elected president? Does he have the strength to push through his programs? Being a nice guy is not enough.

As to the other candidates......we have voted time and again for the "electable" candidate promoted by the GOPe. All are the old Rockefeller Republican style of politician. And what happens? Each time we are disappointed. The definition of insanity...............doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting the results to be different.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2015, 10:07:45 AM
I don't see Ben Carson as the nominee or the President either.  Like Trump but in a different way, it is very interesting to see how well he is doing right now.

As an aside, not related to anyone else specifically, we have too many candidates to not have any scandals come out other than the drip, drip, drip of the Clinton Crime Family.  (Mrs. Rubio drives too fast?)

Yes it sounds cliche and yes we picked some bad ones lately, but we still want to nominate someone who is electable in the general election.  Looking back at HW Bush (without Reagan at his side), Bob Dole, McCain and Romney, or the partial success and partial failures of the W Bush administration doesn't change the fact that we need to nominate the best candidate who can win.

Trump is falling into Romney's trap.  He can't address major issues effectively or relate outside of his core group because of his own background and experience.  Romney could not tell you why free market capitalism works or why government is not the best provider of healthcare and Trump cannot tell you he doesn't favor the rich and powerful over the poor and powerless.

Cruz is the most pure, but not seen as the most electable.  JEB cannot reform the tax code without having them called the Bush tax cuts.  Carson will need more dynamism to get a word in edgewise with the wicked witch, although underestimated Carson has also been a losing proposition.  Nothing will be easy for Rubio either, especially if immigration conservatives don't get behind him, but all Dem advisers in private admit he is the candidate the Hillary team fears most.  Young, sharp, conveys a positive message (in 2 languages) and able to stand up to her and her failed record and policies on all issues.



"we have voted time and again for the "electable" candidate promoted by the GOPe. All are the old Rockefeller Republican style of politician."

What are the similarities between John McCain, Bob Dole, Mitt Romney and Marco Rubio?  None that I see.  Rubio was considered tea party on all issues, not Rockefeller on anything.  Then he strayed on immigration, learned and came back.  That learning experience I have argued will turn into a strength in the general election debates and in dealing with the other side of the aisle going forward.
Title: Trump Correct About Immigration and 9-11 Hijackers...
Post by: objectivist1 on October 19, 2015, 10:54:29 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/18/flashback-jeb-bush-admitted-leaky-immigration-led-911/

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 11:01:17 AM
Through them all in the camp of Compassionate Conservatives. And yes, Rubio did "change his mind" on immigration, but what is not mentioned that two months ago he pulled a Jeb. Talking to hispanic groups in Spanish, he reversed course again.

The problem is that any candidate is going to have to pull from the Dem party to win. Can Rubio do so? I doubt it. Can Carson? He can get some, but his own views on immigration will lose him Rep support. Additionally, he just comes across as too nice.

I still say that at the very end, the GOPe will pull something to get a candidate other than Trump as the nominee. Here is a potential scenario......

1. Trump does not get 50% plus one to outright win the nomination. All other delegates are released to support the non Trump candidate and that person takes the nomination.

2. Trump is the only candidate with 8 plus wins. He does not have 50% plus 1 though and the other released delegates decline to vote. This throws the convention into the backrooms as a brokered convention. Someone else is "nominated" and wins in the smoke filled back room.  Trump is out.

Under either scenario, the Rep candidate will lose to the Dem in the general election. That is because the Trump base will walk and will not vote. Just like with Romney and the evangelicals that refused to vote for a Mormon candidate.
Title: Dems: No Soution for Inequality, No Interest in Economic Growth
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2015, 11:23:40 AM
Michael Barone, right on the money.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/10/19/democrats_have_no_solution_for_inequality_no_interest_in_growth_128457.html

Democrats Have No Solution for Inequality, No Interest in Growth
By Michael Barone
October 19, 2015
You may not have noticed, but Lincoln Chafee, the erstwhile Republican U.S. senator and independent-turned-Democratic governor, had one penetrating comment at the Democrats' debate Tuesday night. "But let me just say this about income inequality," he said toward the end. "We've had a lot of talk over the last few minutes, hours or tens of minutes, but no one is saying how we're going to fix it."

Chafee offered no solution himself and showed his confusion about the issue by saying that inequality "all started with the Bush tax cuts that favored the wealthy." Actually, as my Washington Examiner colleague Timothy Carney has demonstrated, Bush's cuts actually made the tax system more progressive, with the highest 10 percent of earners paying a larger share of federal income taxes than before.


But every once in a while a pig sniffs out a truffle and Chafee, after standing silently for tens of minutes, found one. For the policies proffered by the others on the stage would do little or nothing to reduce income inequality — just like the increase in high earner rates Obama got in 2013 (which no one mentioned).

Nor did anyone call for higher rates now, though on the stump Bernie Sanders has mentioned favorably the 90 percent high rate in place during the 1950s.

One possible reason is that when middle-income voters hear talk of a tax increase they assume it will fall on them. Another is that higher rates would hit many East and West Coast Democratic voters.

Another good reason, though not one appealing to the candidates, is that history shows that no matter how high rates go, top earners' effective tax rates aren't much higher than currently. And current rates are the most progressive in the advanced OECD countries. The Scandinavian countries praised by Sanders have value-added (= sales) taxes around 25 percent.

A recent study by Brookings economists William Gale, Melissa Kearney and former Obama budget director Peter Orszag concluded that raising the high rate to 50 percent and distributing all proceeds to the lowest-income 20 percent would have an "exceedingly modest" effect in reducing income inequality. In response to critics, they wrote that "no single policy within the realm of the politically feasible could in fact substantially offset the long-term, powerful trends in income inequality."

Democrats' other proposals would not make much difference either, like Hillary Clinton's call for more spending on "early childhood education," despite repeated studies showing that it has no lasting effect, and "schools that meet needs," whatever that means.

Clinton, Sanders and Martin O'Malley called for "tuition-free college," echoing Barack Obama's free-junior-college proposal. But junior college is already free for most low-income students, and increases in government aid have produced administrative bloat. Which Clinton at least recognized, by calling for getting college costs down, without specifying how.

It's also worth asking what is progressive about a policy that forces taxpayers, many of whom lack the skills or inclination for college, to pay for the college costs of people who on average start off higher on the income ladder and may climb higher still.

Another favorite proposal was government-mandated paid family and medical leave. We need to join the rest of the advanced world on this, said Clinton, Sanders and O'Malley. And each called for a higher minimum wage ($15 for Sanders).

Naturally they avoided mentioning the costs — the elimination of some jobs, closing of some businesses, price increases to consumers. Wal-Mart's self-imposed $10 minimum resulted in sharply reduced profits and may mean higher prices for consumers. Somebody has to pay for free stuff.

Moreover, most minimum wage earners aren't sole household earners and aren't in low-income households. Paid family and medical leaves, presumably welcome to many, would cover only a few months of working lifetimes.

The Democrats' dirty little secret is that the inequality they complain of is most common in places where they have put policies like minimum wage increases and paid leave into place. California has the highest poverty rate (compared to living costs) in America, New York City the most economic inequality.

French economist Thomas Piketty, who advocates massive wealth redistribution, notes that inequality was reduced sharply in the first half of the twentieth century—by two world wars and a worldwide depression.

One thing you didn't hear the Democrats talk about was how to increase overall growth above the anemic 2 percent Obama levels. Do they have anything to say about that?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Time Magazine on GOPe Primary Rules
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 01:09:13 PM
Here is time magazine writing about how the GOPe could manipulate the nomination by a change in rules at the convention. Any reason to believe that they would not do it> If they do, then the Dems win the election.

http://time.com/4065953/gop-rules-could-bring-a-messy-fight-to-the-nominating-convention/ (http://time.com/4065953/gop-rules-could-bring-a-messy-fight-to-the-nominating-convention/)

They will consider such thorny issues as what to do about the 2012 rule requiring nominees to have won eight states. That rule can always be rewritten at the convention, say party bigwigs, if it will help speed selection of a nominee. But last-minute rule changes by party insiders would likely be met with fury from a rank and file not accustomed to the tyranny of the smoke-filled room. The fear in Washington is that the forces that have propelled Donald Trump and Ben Carson in the polls and exiled Speaker of the House John Boehner from Congress will unify to challenge other convention rules as the event approaches.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 02:00:37 PM
Fox News, Ed Henry, and other sources are reporting that Biden is entering the race. 

This will be interesting to say the least. Can Biden beat Hillary? Likely.

Who among the GOPe candidates can beat Biden? Bush or Rubio? No way. The dwarfs? Not at all.  Carson? We wait to see.  Trump? I don't know.

Can you imagine all the fun things that Trump would say about Biden when he makes his gaffs?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 03:06:41 PM
Webb considering running as an Independent. Too bad he has no support.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 19, 2015, 09:01:23 PM
 :-D Pat Buchanan asking my same question............and coming to my own conclusions.


http://www.wnd.com/2015/10/can-trump-be-stopped/ (http://www.wnd.com/2015/10/can-trump-be-stopped/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 20, 2015, 01:15:15 PM
Hillary's testimony on Thursday may be pivotal.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 20, 2015, 01:38:25 PM
CD,

Can I have some of what you are smoking? Not going to matter at all................ :wink:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Hillary testimony
Post by: DougMacG on October 20, 2015, 05:28:00 PM
I doubt she will say anything meaningful, just try to use this as a photo opp and a political appearance.  It will get interesting if the questioner Gowdy can make the case or the followup of exactly what is being asked that isn't being answered and why it matters.  

The format in the debate was, ask tough question, ignore the question, ask tough followup, ignore again, then drop it as if it was asked and answered.  That isn't going to be the format here.  She could be asked 5 or 6 followups and it could get combative if Gowdy has meaningful questions and presses for an answer.

They have already questioned staff and are just receiving the Stevens emails now.

Hillary's practice answers in current interviews are that for her to address the Ambassador's pleas for help would have been "political", and to let the security professionals handle it was proper, even though they got it wrong and she is supposed to be running the department.  

The Stevens emails went to Hillary but she passed the buck somewhere else.  Gowdy can't say it, but is that going to be her method of governing as President, 'well we have professionals who handle that and it's not my job to override their deicisions...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 20, 2015, 08:59:40 PM
Gowdy has a reputation as being more than a little skilled in the art of examining a witness , , ,
Title: Jim Webb is done with Democrats
Post by: ccp on October 21, 2015, 07:21:44 AM
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/oct/19/inside-the-beltway-jim-webb-could-go-rogue-as-an-i/
Title: Trump-Carson?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 21, 2015, 07:28:53 AM
http://www.westernjournalism.com/trump-just-got-asked-if-he-would-team-up-with-carson-his-response-is-turning-heads/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=ConservativeHeadlinesEmail&utm_campaign=AM2&utm_content=2015-10-21
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 21, 2015, 08:01:19 AM
I like the idea of a Trump - Carson team. Let Carson work on health care issues directed by Trump. 

This would have full cross over appeal, especially since Trumpeteers know that he would control Carson and his even more liberal leanings. Of course, the GOPe will still have the plans in effect that would derail Trump in the Convention.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 21, 2015, 09:23:52 AM
Joe Biden not running.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 21, 2015, 09:26:30 AM
I like the idea of a Trump - Carson team. Let Carson work on health care issues directed by Trump. 

This would have full cross over appeal, especially since Trumpeteers know that he would control Carson and his even more liberal leanings. Of course, the GOPe will still have the plans in effect that would derail Trump in the Convention.

At this point in time, that is the right ticket.  I'm guessing about a dozen major things are going to happen between now and March 1 or so to shake things up dramatically.

I have said the Republicans need to find a prominent role for Carson if he is not the nominee.

Trump is the one who can pick Carson who is now a resident of Florida.  
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/dr-ben-carson-im-running-for-president/nk8Cw/
West Palm Beach resident Ben Carson confirmed Sunday he’s entering the Republican race for president,
Rubio, Bush and Carson perhaps should not pick each other to be VP.
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/apr/16/lawrence-odonnell/president-vice-president-same-state-allowed/
Constitution...prevents electors in the Electoral College from voting for a president and vice president who are both from their home state.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 21, 2015, 09:31:47 AM
Joe Biden not running.

One dumbsh*t liberal wacko down, two to go.

This means Hillary will not be indicted.  Joe knows.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 21, 2015, 09:32:55 AM
Joe Biden not running.

One dumbsh*t liberal wacko down, two to go.

This means Hillary will not be indicted.  Joe knows.

Yup.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 21, 2015, 09:36:17 AM
Doug & GM

My thoughts exactly.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 21, 2015, 09:36:57 AM
OTOH Joe frequently gets it wrong  :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 21, 2015, 09:44:45 AM
OTOH Joe frequently gets it wrong  :lol:

You raise a good point.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuvfCnMizAA[/youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuvfCnMizAA

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 21, 2015, 01:11:04 PM
Carl Icahn to create $150m SUPER PAC.  Icahn is a "true shark". How, if any, does this change things with Trump?  Is this a sign that others will enter to do battle?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/us-usa-election-icahn-idUSKCN0SF2AK20151021?utm_source=twitter (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/21/us-usa-election-icahn-idUSKCN0SF2AK20151021?utm_source=twitter)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 21, 2015, 02:28:13 PM
Interesting Website, Hillary is 44. It was a website supporting Hillary in 2008.

Currently they are posting about the Rep candidates and doing a good job evaluating the situation. 

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2015/10/20/realdonaldtrump-walks-away-with-the-clinton-coalition/#comments (http://www.hillaryis44.org/2015/10/20/realdonaldtrump-walks-away-with-the-clinton-coalition/#comments)
Title: Extremist dems no place for Jim Webb
Post by: G M on October 22, 2015, 05:05:30 AM
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/102015-776518-extremist-democratic-party-has-no-place-for-jim-webb.htm

(http://news.investors.com/photopopup.aspx?path=ISS2__151021.jpg&docId=776518&xmpSource=&width=1565&height=860&caption=&id=776517)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 22, 2015, 07:18:59 AM
Iowa

Carson leading Trrump 28 to 20

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291)


Mass Poll

Trump 28, Carson 14

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_republican_presidential_primary-5205.html (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_republican_presidential_primary-5205.html)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 22, 2015, 07:59:52 AM
Iowa

Carson leading Trrump 28 to 20

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291[/
 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2291)


I was going to post this but see PP already got it.  A minute ago Trump was leading in all states (including the previous 13 polls in a row in Iowa), but is down dramatically since late August in that first state contest.  You know what a smart businessman will do when his trend line starts to drop ...   )

In next Wednesday's debate, it is Rubio who will stand next to Trump in center stage, with Jeb moving one step to the side - closer to the exit.  With debates still not really Carson's strength, the focus, attention and contrast could quickly become Trump and Rubio.  

Rubio's slow, slow climb in poll numbers is a good thing for him only if he can keep it up.  If he continues to poll better than others in general election polling and continue to inch up in nomination polling, he could very possibly peak at just the right time.

We still haven't really had one big gaffe or one big personal failing hit any of these 17 candidates.  There have to be at least a few surprises coming...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 22, 2015, 09:37:37 AM
The question that comes to mind is whether this is an outlier or not.  There is no mention of how much evangelicals were represented in the polls as a total percentage of those polled. This would certainly affect Carson results.

Carson has certainly increased his position, at the expense of all others. I do know that he has been doing an extensive advertising blitz in the state.

But this is where the ground game really comes into play. How big of a ground presence does Carson have. I know that both Jeb and Trump have significant presence there. Trump has the most paid employees and they are using some unique methods for signing up volunteers for Get Out the Vote efforts.

What happens when Trump kicks in the advertising?

Interesting times...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 23, 2015, 08:09:24 AM
Trump - sinking like a stone in Iowa:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

Okay, down just one more point but showing the Quinnipiac wasn't an outlier.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From Hillbillary thread:
PP:  "The GOPe cannot put up a candidate that can beat her. They will run Rubio, Jeb or in a pinch, Cruz. Each will lose.
Carson will lose if he runs, because he is too nice and with his previous stands on  issues,  very vulnerable.
Trump would have a hard time, but he could probably win. But the GOPe will not let him be the nominee."


These are good candidates.  The winner will emerge from a position of strength.  It could even be Trump.  The biggest problem always is that they have to run against the Democrat and they have to run against the media too.  It' very hard to get a message out.  Maybe we say this every time, but I think next Wed debate will be crucial.  Trump succeeded in getting it to two hours, making it very watchable.  Now we sort of know all the candidates, we know the opponent, we know the time frame and we know the issues.  The learning curve is mostly over.  Now we need to see, hear and visualize which one of them can step up and do this, run, win and govern.

Most likely it will be Rubio running with Fiorina or Trump running with Carson.  (Running against Hillary and Castro.)  With 17 running, why pick someone who skipped the vetting process, and why pick someone who didn't already show wide appeal.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 08:39:08 AM
Doug,

You are correct. Any GOP candidate will be running against the Dems, Hillary, the media, and the free giveaways. That is why I see Hillary winning. (From all indications, Trump would  also be running against a large portion of his own party.)

The country is screwed..................
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 23, 2015, 08:56:28 AM
Doug,
You are correct. Any GOP candidate will be running against the Dems, Hillary, the media, and the free giveaways. That is why I see Hillary winning. (From all indications, Trump would  also be running against a large portion of his own party.)

The country is screwed..................

The other factors the experts track are this.  When a candidate runs to hold the White House after a two term incumbent two factors predict the result more than anything the actual candidates of either party do:
1)  The approval of the President leaving office.  He is now upside down by 5 points, 45.1% approval, 50.2% disapproval.  A small margin but stuck in place.
2)  The condition of the economy.  This is the heart of our argument with Brian Wesbury.  He predicted last time the condition of the economy alone was not bad enough to defeat Obama and was right.  I would argue that the perception of the condition of this economy is roughy the same as Obama's job approval, 45-50 upside down.  The view of it should be 0% approval, 100% disapproval, but politics gets in the way.

These factors play against the Democrats.  The changing demographics plays against the Republicans.  This is going to be a close one.  Small margin, huge consequences.

My backup plan of finding lakeshore in conservative Canada is now screwed too!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 09:09:20 AM
All true Doug. My backup plan will be a cardboard home that gets replaced with each rain.

BTW, just signed up for Social Security yesterday. Decided to take it since if I did not, it would go to some illegal or welfare dependent. 

Here is interesting stuff on Jeb. Looks like he is about finished....

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/jeb-bush-struggles-to-galvanize-his-familys-donor-base-as-campaign-falters-1445557025 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/jeb-bush-struggles-to-galvanize-his-familys-donor-base-as-campaign-falters-1445557025)

The entire focus for Jeb now is Iowa. He must have a good showing, or else he is gone. Expect there to be more positive articles about Rubio.

As to Snarly being a Rubio running mate, I don't think that is likely. Notice her support is gone...........kaput.  Any bounce she got is over and done.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 23, 2015, 09:38:34 AM
Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum did so in 2012.  The evengelical vote and the unique process in Iowa make it a sui generis state and in the present election one uniquely favorable to Carson.

Catching my eye as a small but perhaps telling moment is a late night Trump tweet explaining the Iowa poll by saying Monsanto corn must have rotted the pollees views.  He thought better of it  , , , and blamed the post on an aide/intern.   :roll:  As we say in NY "Yeah, right."  :roll:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 10:43:29 AM
This was a "retweet" of what some person had tweeted earlier. Obviously, the original tweet was a joke. Should it have been retweeted? No..............but if this is going to change somones viewpoint, then that person would not have gone for Trump anyway.

Of course, this tweet was way far worse than what Hillary says about Republicans..........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 23, 2015, 10:55:25 AM
Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum did so in 2012.  The evengelical vote and the unique process in Iowa make it a sui generis state and in the present election one uniquely favorable to Carson.

Catching my eye as a small but perhaps telling moment is a late night Trump tweet explaining the Iowa poll by saying Monsanto corn must have rotted the pollees views.  He thought better of it  , , , and blamed the post on an aide/intern.   :roll:  As we say in NY "Yeah, right."  :roll:

Right.  Iowa doesn't pick the right winner, but they are among those watching the closest so the trend lines do matter.

As Trump gets more careful and Presidential in the debates and interviews, maybe the gaffes will come from the late night tweeting.


Carly lost momentum partly because it is hard to stay relevant and in the news.  She still has proved to be the toughest antidote to Hillary as a running mate.  She should make sure that is her focus in Wed's debate.  Lindsey Graham, former military prosecutor, who I otherwise don't like makes a very good

Bush's lost momentum (that he never had) is now the big news story.  It blows his theory for winning.  He is insurmountable because of money, but is cutting salaries by 40%. In other words, he is not insurmountable.  He was a good Governor.  Other than being completely unchangeable on open immigration (and a last name not suited to the political times), he should have been a very strong candidate and wasn't.  

This is over when Rubio names Carly VP, puts Carson in charge of healthcare, appoints Trump to build the wall - non-profit, Cruz to the Supreme Court and Jeb back to fundraising.  Santorum can lead the national prayer breakfast, Chris Christie can be Attorney General, Bobbie Jindal Secretary of Energy.  Am I missing anyone?  Kasich to head OMB, Huickabee back to pundit and elevate Rand Paul to majority leader of the senate.  Can't we all just work together - like Democrats do?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 23, 2015, 11:08:31 AM
This was a "retweet" of what some person had tweeted earlier. Obviously, the original tweet was a joke. Should it have been retweeted? No..............but if this is going to change somones viewpoint, then that person would not have gone for Trump anyway.

Of course, this tweet was way far worse than what Hillary says about Republicans..........


A joke, yes.  Poll numbers down, blame the pollees.  Don't think Trump is laughing much about what could be trend line down. There isn't aline to follow his favorite one which is that I am leading in all the polls. 

This was dangerously close to catching a Manhattan New Yorker making fun of Iowa or Iowans.  A Walker aide lost his job over that - and he was from a neighboring state.

Trump's strength of (saying/writing whatever comes to mind) is also his weakness - and may be his downfall.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 23, 2015, 11:26:21 AM
Yup.

This was a "retweet" of what some person had tweeted earlier. Obviously, the original tweet was a joke. Should it have been retweeted? No..............but if this is going to change somones viewpoint, then that person would not have gone for Trump anyway.

Of course, this tweet was way far worse than what Hillary says about Republicans..........


A joke, yes.  Poll numbers down, blame the pollees.  Don't think Trump is laughing much about what could be trend line down. There isn't aline to follow his favorite one which is that I am leading in all the polls. 

This was dangerously close to catching a Manhattan New Yorker making fun of Iowa or Iowans.  A Walker aide lost his job over that - and he was from a neighboring state.

Trump's strength of (saying/writing whatever comes to mind) is also his weakness - and may be his downfall.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 11:45:32 AM
Perhaps, but he then changes the dialogue again.  He has disavowed alll Super Pacs alligned with him and told them he does not want the money. Then he challenges all other candidates to do the same.

Was this done because there were claims of the Pacs getting too close to his campaign? Likely, but there is no way that the other campaigns are not working with the Super Pacs in one way or another. But it is a great move to challenge others to disavow the Pacs.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 11:47:00 AM
DOJ/FBI will not bring charges against Lois Lehner............just breaking..

So anyone still think that Hillary will be held liable for her actions?

The fix is in.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 11:57:36 AM
If anyone here believes in String Theory, I fear that we have crossed a string membrane and entered an alternative string universe. Here is why:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign)

This new universe actually has a Bush cutting expenses and budgets......................what other reason can there be for this?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 23, 2015, 03:04:09 PM
"This is over when Rubio names Carly VP, puts Carson in charge of healthcare, appoints Trump to build the wall - non-profit, Cruz to the Supreme Court and Jeb back to fundraising.  Santorum can lead the national prayer breakfast, Chris Christie can be Attorney General, Bobbie Jindal Secretary of Energy.  Am I missing anyone?  Kasich to head OMB, Huickabee back to pundit and elevate Rand Paul to majority leader of the senate.  Can't we all just work together - like Democrats do?"

This is the way winners think  8-)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 03:27:39 PM
Then the Dems resurrect Harry Reid and nothing goes anywhere............... :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 23, 2015, 03:42:30 PM
If we win (e.g. with the Rubio team of previous post) and hold the Congress, amazing things can get done-- Dingy Harry be damned.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 23, 2015, 03:50:45 PM
Forget what you are smoking, I want what you are drinking!!

Title: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016
Post by: DougMacG on October 23, 2015, 04:49:53 PM
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/10/14/forget-what-you-saw-last-night-two-simple-reasons-a-republican-is-likely-to-win-in-2016/

First, a Republican will win because voters typically shy away from the party currently in power when an incumbent isn’t running.
In fact, a successor candidate is three times less likely to win. Second, President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are too low to
suggest a successor candidate will take the White House.

This far from Election Day, published poll data is off by an average of 8 percentage points compared with the true election outcome.

Time before election,  Average error of polls (compared to final results)
One week      1.7%
One month       2.7%
Two months   3.8%
Three months  4.8%
Six months      5.8%
Nine months   6.9%
Twelve months  7.9%

In order for a successor candidate to have better than even chances of winning, the sitting president must have an approval rating of above 55 percent.
Because Barack Obama’s average approval rating is now at 45 percent

President (Govt) approval rating,  SUCCESSOR probability of victory

40%          6%

45%        14%

50%        28%

55%        49%

60%        71%
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential- More Evidence for Alternative Universe
Post by: ppulatie on October 24, 2015, 08:02:15 AM
Okay, there is now more evidence that we are in an Alternate String Universe.

Cher had good words for Trump and was against Carson.

What happened to my "old universe"?

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/10/say-what-far-left-cher-promotes-donald-trump-a-giant-among-gop-front-runners/ (http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/10/say-what-far-left-cher-promotes-donald-trump-a-giant-among-gop-front-runners/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 25, 2015, 12:02:39 PM
Jeb Bush had a "stompy feet" reaction yesterday in South Carolina yesterday. His comments:


"If this election is about how we're going to fight to get nothing done, then ... I don't want any part of it. I don't want to be elected president to sit around and see gridlock just become so dominant that people literally are in decline in their lives. That is not my motivation," he said.

"I've got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. That is a joke. Elect Trump if you want that," Bush added.


I can now see the new Trump ads coming out:

Make American Great Again - Elect Trump if you want that

Border Wall - Elect Trump if you want that,

Immigration Control - Elect Trump if you want that,

Tax reform -  Elect Trump if you want that,

Jeb is finished, kaput........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 25, 2015, 03:07:24 PM
Both Jeb and Trump looked whiney in the past day or so.  Trump overreacting that his Iowa polls are dipping, taking a shot at Carson over religion, at the Des Moines Register as a terrible newspaper, Quinnipiac as a terrible university.  He has built too much of his reason for being around leading in all the polls to handle the ups and downs of it all.

More twists and tuirns in this road are coming.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 25, 2015, 03:41:16 PM
Trump's "attack" on Carson was "perfect".

Remember that Carson made the original comment on faith and Trump and implied that the Trump faith was less than to be desired.

Trump responded yesterday with the comment about not knowing much about Carsons' 7 Day Adventist Faith. When Trump mentioned 7 Day Adventist, my immediate thought was that on a Sat morning, I would be having a cup of coffee and the door bell would ring. Open it up and there would be Carson asking me about my faith in God and mentioning that the end was near.

How many other people will have the same reaction, especially the evangelicals that are not 7 Day Adventist?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 25, 2015, 03:45:06 PM
Now I have commented numerous times about the Chamber of Commerce influencing the election in favor of RINO's pushing their agenda. Now this......

Paul Ryan's Speaker Chief of Staff will be David Hoppe, lobbyist for the Chamber of Commerce.

COC is:

Pro Amnesty
Pro TPP
Pro ObamaCare
Pro Common Core
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 25, 2015, 06:51:30 PM
Without hesitation Carson backed off his comment about the sincerity of Trump's claims of faith, so properly Trump should not be casting the aspersions that he is casting here.   FWIW my sense of things is that Trump's proclivity for creating food fight snark fests is starting to wear rather thin with a lot of people; it may not have reached critical mass, but he may be setting himself up for a fall.

PP:  Thanks for the heads up on Hoppe.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 25, 2015, 07:31:11 PM
 "FWIW my sense of things is that Trump's proclivity for creating food fight snark fests is starting to wear rather thin with a lot of people; it may not have reached critical mass, but he may be setting himself up for a fall."

Yup.  My thoughts on this too.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 26, 2015, 08:21:53 AM
Does this mean that Trump cannot address things about Carson until attacked?  What things are off the table then to challenge Carson on?

In the case of the 7 Day Adventist comment, Trump cited that he did not know anything about the religion. That was all that was said. For him to make that statement, it is now deemed an attack on Carson. 

But how many people really know anything about the 7 Day Adventist religion?  Do many people know that the 7DA believes in the complete accuracy of the Bible? Every word is truth, even though the Bible contradicts itself in Genesis about the creation of the world? That before Eve, there was Lillith? Creationism versus evolution? The earth is no more than a few thousand years old?

If one is going to vote on evangelical concerns, is it not important that those voters understand the nature of the religion and its beliefs? It was certainly somewhat applicable to Romney and his religion is one significant reason that he lost.

What about Carson's beliefs that abortion should not be allowed in the case of rape or incest, or threat to the life of the mother? This is all a direct result of his religious beliefs.

How much does his religious beliefs affect his policy positions? If his religion is against war and he is a complete pacifist, should not this be a valid subject to consider?

One may not like the method that Trump uses, the 10 second sound bite, but the questions raised are of a concern. After all, religious beliefs can be a huge influence to the "true believer"?

I apologize if I offend anyone for some of what I have written, but IMO, a person's religious beliefs that have formed him must be considered in any context of public officer. After all, Carson raised the issue himself when he stated that a Muslim should not be elected to the presidency because their beliefs are contrary to the Constitution. If so, why should Carson and 7DA be any different?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 26, 2015, 08:34:57 AM
PP,
I don't know anything about the back and forth religious claims of Trump and Carson.

I suppose it is relevant to the Evangelicals but I for one couldn't care less about these minor points.

I am just saying, and I think Craft is too, that this is all side show stuff anyway.

We really want to hear him talk about taking the country back in the direction we believe it should be going and away from the path of tyranny.

I for one do not want to spend the little time I have left living in a country where every moment of my life is controlled by left wingers from the Political, wealthy class, and IVY league know it alls.

That said it seems more and more people, including a big majority of those who are coming here from elsewhere ( and of course the reason immigration law is not enforced) are ok with this.

In any case that is what I want Trump to be focusing on.  Not back and forth bitty stuff.  I don't recall Reagan ever wasting time on the detail stuff.   But my memory may be off.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 26, 2015, 08:42:22 AM
You make your points reasonably Pat.  In response:

a)  Saying he did not know anything about 7DA is a bit disingenuous-- he is deliberately calling attention to doubts that evangelicals have about 7DAs, just as they did about Romney to his loss;

b) My fiercely atheistic 16 year old son mocks Christianity as a "cult dedicated to the worship of a Jewish zombie".  Certainly there is much challenge that can be made to standard Christian doctrine (How did the baby Jesus get past the hymen that was still there due to Mary being a virgin?) but really, is this how we want our political discourse to go?  

c) Are you seeing any signs that BC is a pacifist?  I'm not.  

d)  With regard to a Muslim becoming president, what Dr. Ben said was that he, OR ANYONE OF ANY RELIGION,  must hold the Constitution first just as he, Dr. Ben, did.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 26, 2015, 09:39:05 AM
"but really, is this how we want our political discourse to go? "

Right, that seems to be the heart of it.  Trump was clearly trying to raise the doubts of Carson's religion.  Relevant if you could tie it to a fault in how he would govern.  He didn't.  PP points out the literal belief in the bible as if the others don't have some of that too.  Again relevant if it fit a mold that Carson seemed to be an idiot who might deny the age of the planet etc.  Tearing the other guy down to build yourself up is soooo Christian - NOT.

Trump repeated 3 or 4 times, "I am a Presbyterian", meaning what?  That he belongs to some non-controversial, vanilla - milk toast type of church?  I don't know.  Evangelicals that I know call themselves Christians.  Presbyterians I know also call themselves Christians.  The Presbyterian Church is a place where they practice Christianity, not Presbyterianism.  Saying it over and over makes it sound like you aren't one.  So does the life he leads and the way he conducts himself, casting aspersions at every opportunity.  Not something I ever saw taught at the Presbyterian Church.

"Presbyterian theology typically emphasizes the sovereignty of God, the authority of the Scriptures, and the necessity of grace through faith in Christ."  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presbyterianism

Putting religion aside, I used to want to consider myself a self made man, that I put myself through college and did other things all by myself, as if my family and others weren't a crucial part of every opportunity that came to me.  Over time I came to learn how false that was.  Trump self-centeredness and lack of humility reminds me of my own immaturity about 35 years ago.  Neither of us accomplished as much as we think we have or had. 

Carson had a great answer for Connor, but I can't find the recent quote, so I paraphrase, Do you know scientists who can create something out of nothing or have seen life evolve out of non-life?  I don't.
http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/ben-carson-evolution-life-evolve-non-life-incredible-fairy-tales

I put it this way before I knew Carson's line.  I will let you pick all the top scientists in the world, give you complete access to unlimited quantities of all elements and molecules known in the universe, and no time limit.  Create life.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 26, 2015, 12:11:59 PM
I use religion only as an example of how it can influence a person's biases and beliefs, and how that could effect how they might govern.

The truth is that in the name of religion, some of the most devastating wars have been fought time and again, caused by those who are true believers and who will wage war on those beliefs. In fact, we are engaged in one right now with radical Islam.

Religions were established to control people and populations and to guide them in the way that others perceived life should go. This is the same as the tax code is used today. The problem is that religion must adapt and change as the times change, like the great Reformation in Europe. Failure to do so means that problems like Islamic Fundamentalism occurs.

500 years have passed since the Reformation. Society and technology changes now in just a few decades. Religious thought must accept those changes and adapt to them.

This is the problem I see with Carson today as well as others. Has his own religious thoughts, so based in a literal interpretation of the Bible, influenced him that he cannot see beyond his current beliefs? Is he willing to consider other options that might conflict with his religious beliefs?

I don't know the answers, but before I could support a candidate like him, I would have to know more where he stands..........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 26, 2015, 12:26:50 PM
"Ben Carson has overtaken Donald Trump in Iowa, surging to a 14-point lead, according to a new poll.  A Monmouth University survey released on Monday found Carson taking 32 percent support in Iowa, followed by Trump at 18 percent."

The problem with this poll is that it was 55% evangelicals and 45% non-evangelicals.  Think this would have a difference in the result?  Naaa.........no way. (sarcasm off)



http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/258081-poll-carson-opens-up-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-iowa (http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/258081-poll-carson-opens-up-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-iowa)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 27, 2015, 05:11:05 AM
Carson leads in latest national poll.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbsnyt-poll-ben-carson-edges-out-donald-trump/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 27, 2015, 05:43:11 AM
Evangelical change of heart?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 27, 2015, 07:44:18 AM
Margin of Error is 7% on Republican voters. Other sub groups 6%. 4% overall.  No other internals were released.

What we now have is Iowa where the polls have changed to Carson heavily in the last 3.  A trend here clearly exists. Of course, Iowa is highly predictive. Just ask President Huckabee in 2008 and President Santorum in 2012. (Also, heavy ad buys for Carson by his PACs and CFG/COC in favor of Carson or attacking Trump.)

The NYT/CBS poll showing Carson over Trump nationally for the first time, but the internals are not released, so who knows. Is it an outlier? All other national polls show Trump ahead. Must wait to see other polls.

Trump winning in every other state except Oklahoma an Louisiana. If Trump keeps up in those states, then what does the NYT/CBS poll mean?

On the nomination front, this would suggest that Carson would have 3 of 8 states needed for his name to  go into nomination. How does he get to eight? Trump needs to be knocked out.

For Trump, if there is a shift, he must stop the bleeding. He does this through heavy advertising buys in the first states, as he has said will begin in November. Then he goes after the opposition on issues.

For Rubio, he has a problem. If he takes out Trump, much of the Trump support will go to Carson or Cruz. It really does not do him much good. Otherwise, he must take out Carson. It is believed that he would pick up quite a bit of the Carson support. So if he takes out Trump, then it becomes more difficult to challenge Carson.

Sounds like for Rubio, he must go after the Carson/Cruz faction, gain some of that support and then hope that Trump drops further.

Now, notice what is really happening over the last month:

1. Media and others have been pushing Carson heavily. Lots of airtime and articles on him, mostly positive.

2. Media has stopped covering Trump rallies, and puts him into negative light. All negative polls are referenced day and night, and positive polls ignored.

3. COC and CFG have aligned to go after Trump.

4. GOPe has been pushing Rubio more.

5. Polls in Iowa and the new NYT/CBS polls are pushed heavily suggesting a trend against Trump. Positive polls in the other states are ignored.

There has obviously been a concerted effort to blunt Trump by the "usual suspects". The Wed night CNBC debate and then the Fox debate two weeks later will show whether there is a true media "hit job" in progress. The polls in between will show whether there is a real trend for Carson against Trump.

Again, I expect that Rubio will be the nominee due to the GOPe and Media efforts. And then Hillary will win in the General Election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 27, 2015, 08:40:33 AM
Morning Consult Poll

http://morningconsult.com/2015/10/poll-carson-rises-to-challenge-trump/ (http://morningconsult.com/2015/10/poll-carson-rises-to-challenge-trump/)

"Billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump’s lead over the Republican presidential field faces a new challenge from retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, a new survey shows, as conservative voters show a strong preference for outsider candidates rather than established politicians.

Trump continues to lead the GOP field with 35 percent of the vote, down from the 40 percent who said they would support him in last week’s Morning Consult tracking survey. Carson finishes in second place, with 20 percent of the vote."


What this means is that the polls coming out are finding results based upon the internals of the poll. Some like the NYT/CBS and IDB who are not providing internals are circumspect for that very reason. There may be trends going to Carson, but this could be due to the heavy emphasis placed on him right now by the media. And that could be why Trump is falling.

Where things go from here depends on the next two debates.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 27, 2015, 12:34:44 PM
Gravis Poll out. Trump leading nationally, 35.6% to 21.7% over Carson. Internals provided which were not done with the NYT/CBS poll.

"Who's on first? What's on second.....?"


http://www.oann.com/pollnational/ (http://www.oann.com/pollnational/)

(http://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/gop-777x300.png)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 27, 2015, 12:56:42 PM
Gravis Poll out. Trump leading nationally, 35.6% to 21.7% over Carson. Internals provided which were not done with the NYT/CBS poll.

"Who's on first? What's on second.....?"
http://www.oann.com/pollnational/ (http://www.oann.com/pollnational/)
(http://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/gop-777x300.png)

Looks good for your prediction   -   that Rubio is the nominee.  Marco starting to pull away from both Bush and Cruz.

I hear conservatives like Mark Levin, Glenn Beck and Rush start to move toward the conservative candidate   -  Cruz.  All 3 have way too cozy with Donald Trump for different reasons, now starting to get serious.

Carly is back, see WSJ today, 'someone' please post.  Beck had her on this am.  I heard just the end
  When she left, they said that wasn't her best interview.  Will check podcast at glennbeck.com.

Big event is the debate tomorrow.  We already knowostly what they will say.  What we learn is what other people's perceptions of it is.

If Trump's trend line is not down, we should be able to post similar or better results for h to this one in 2-3 weeks.  I bet not.

Carson takes out Trump then fails to win the nomination.  Rubio is frontrunner of the rest.  Cruz becomes the challenger left chasing Rubio, making Rubio look centrist, reasonable and electable.  Hillary is exposed as a liar (that was hard to see coming.  :wink: ). Everyone lives happily ever after.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 27, 2015, 01:52:09 PM
We live in interesting times!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 27, 2015, 02:23:00 PM
The GOP, COC, media and CFG have all stepped up to push Carson and Rubio at this point. But time is running short.

Trump must be negated by the beginning of the primaries for Rubio to move forward. Anything else is too late. If he starts winning primaries, then he will increase in strength. Also, his money will allow him to continue after March 15.

These next two debates are the key to eliminating Trump. If he gets past them with little damage done, then barring a Trump self destruction, he should go into the first primaries in pretty good shape.

If Trump can be taken care of and gotten out, Carson becomes a much easier target especially after March 15. Prevent him from winning too many primaries, and then without Trump, the road is clear for Rubio.

Cruz is not a real factor unless Carson supporters will move to him in large numbers.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 27, 2015, 03:15:00 PM
The GOP, COC, media and CFG have all stepped up to push Carson and Rubio at this point. But time is running short.

Trump must be negated by the beginning of the primaries for Rubio to move forward. Anything else is too late. If he starts winning primaries, then he will increase in strength. Also, his money will allow him to continue after March 15.

These next two debates are the key to eliminating Trump. If he gets past them with little damage done, then barring a Trump self destruction, he should go into the first primaries in pretty good shape.

If Trump can be taken care of and gotten out, Carson becomes a much easier target especially after March 15. Prevent him from winning too many primaries, and then without Trump, the road is clear for Rubio.

Cruz is not a real factor unless Carson supporters will move to him in large numbers.

We can only hope. Cruz is the best option.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 27, 2015, 03:26:31 PM
What the hell is going on with the polling? Latest PPP poll in North Carolina showing massive Trump lead. Most other states showing the same.

Compare and contrast the state polls with the National Polls which are now jumping around and no one has a clear idea of what is happening. Likely it all comes down to the assumptions being made about the electorate characteristics and then the sample of voters that meet those characteristics.

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/presidential-candidates-ppp-poll-north-carolina-10-27.jpg?w=1866&h=1797)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 27, 2015, 05:29:22 PM
Next one out is Rand Paul.  He needs to run for Senate.  Lindsey Graham, Santorum, Pataki could get out (and no one would notice).  Huckabee can get out; he's had his turn.  And then Bush, obviously.  That would thin it enough for now.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, USATODAY: polling strength makes Rubio a top target (?)
Post by: DougMacG on October 27, 2015, 06:51:11 PM
New polling strength makes Marco Rubio a top target at debate
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/10/27/new-polling-strength-makes-marco-rubio-top-target-debate/74696708/

WASHINGTON — Marco Rubio may find himself in an unusual position — a magnet for attack — when he takes the stage at Wednesday’s Republican presidential debate in Boulder, Colo.
When his poll numbers were lower, Rubio largely avoided taking fire from his rivals. But strong performances at two previous debates — and stumbles by former Florida governor Jeb Bush and other candidates — have made Rubio the top GOP establishment candidate. He's now in third place overall behind retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businessman Donald Trump.
------------------------------------------------------

No it doesn't.  Attacking Rubio just gives him more time and attention in the debate.  Makes him look like the leader.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 27, 2015, 08:16:14 PM
With the focus on economics in tomorrow night's debate I have my eye out for the following:

a) Trump dropped off a tax reform plan with a drive by presentation a couple of weeks ago without sticking around to defend it.  Will he come back to it?  Will it be brought back to him?

b) Similar questions with Rubio.   As we discussed here at the time, the WSJ had some serious questions about Rubio's tax plan.  I remember being surprised at the time at how little Rubio engaged with the questions-- they could have provided an opportunity for him to evolve the plan.

c) Huckabee has a chance to shine here with his national sales tax.

d) IIRC Carson has a flat rate?  Anyway, this can be a pivotal moment for him to see if he can run with the big dogs on economics.

e) This can be a chance for Rand Paul to delay the inevitable  :lol:

f) Carly?  With her business career as a cornerstone of her pitch, she needs to shine here.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 10:28:19 AM
CD,

a. Trump has defended the plan many times. As to having the lower income not paying any taxes, he has said that for most of them, it costs more to process the tax return than what is paid. Good point on that.

b. Haven't heard anything on the Rubio plan since he presented it.

c. Huckabee will have problems with the National Sales Tax from the Dems and the poor. Sales Tax is regressive in nature for the lower income. So there will have to be some sort of exemptions to offset the regressive nature.

d.  The Carson Flat Tax is interesting, but the parameters must be fleshed out.

e. Paul has to get out soon and focus upon his Senate Seat. 

f.  Snarly?  Is she still around? 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 28, 2015, 10:57:53 AM
CD,

a. Trump has defended the plan many times. As to having the lower income not paying any taxes, he has said that for most of them, it costs more to process the tax return than what is paid. Good point on that.

b. Haven't heard anything on the Rubio plan since he presented it.

c. Huckabee will have problems with the National Sales Tax from the Dems and the poor. Sales Tax is regressive in nature for the lower income. So there will have to be some sort of exemptions to offset the regressive nature.

d.  The Carson Flat Tax is interesting, but the parameters must be fleshed out.

e. Paul has to get out soon and focus upon his Senate Seat. 

f.  Snarly?  Is she still around? 

a.  Trump needs to change the focus of people dropping off the tax rolls to people moving their income up to where they do contribute!  Does it cost more than it's worth to process their FICA taxes?  I don't think so.

b.  Agree, it will be interesting to see if Rubio still defends the Rubio-Lee tax plan.  For the time being it removes him from the obvious questions aimed at Carson and Trump about exploding the deficit or asked to name $xx trillion in cuts.

c.  The 'Fair Tax' has a 'prebate' for the downtrodden.  Great, that's what poor people are good at is managing money and having available and with them every time they get charged a 30% tax to buy a car, house or replace their furnace.  The Fair Tax is a replacement for the entire tax system, and requires repeal of the income tax amendment, which in 2015-2016 means you are living in a fairy tale world.  Gov Huckabee, please name 38 states that support repealing all income taxation even on the rich.  Otherwise adding a federal sales tax is just another case of conservatives handing liberals another way to tax us to death.  For Huckabee, it is a poliitcal distraction aimed at misleading the gullible to advance his candidacy. (IMHO)  Does Europe use a VAT tax instead of an income tax, or in addition to it?

d.  Carson's comparison of taxation to tithing was illustrative, not a serious policy proposal from a Presidential candidate as far as I know.  Yes, he will have to answer for that and it is getting late to just talk about vague principles (for taking $4 trillion away from the people) when others have actual plans on the table.

e.  Paul, agree, needs to run for his Senate seat.

f.  Carly - perhaps makes the strongest case spelling out the utter failure of Obama-Hillary-onomics.  Watch for her to have a great moment on that. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 11:19:20 AM
DMG,

a. Trump has stated exactly that.  Increase income and jobs so that people reenter into the tax rolls. (Any candidate will lose to the Dems if they promote everyone paying something right now. This is just reality. Reentering into tax rolls by income increases is the only viable approach.)

c. Agreed. The Fair Tax is not going to happen. This would require the repeal of the Income Tax and loss of tax related jobs, plus a reduction in the IRS. Isn't going to happen. 

The National Sales Tax is likely to end up a VAT approach at some point. Every point in the sales process would be taxed and added to the price. Just like Europe. Easier to hide the taxes that way.

f. Yeah, but Snarly so far is a one trick pony. After any debate, she falls back to earth again.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 28, 2015, 11:23:44 AM
VAT is a surefire way to really cripple our economy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 11:28:35 AM
So is a National Sales Tax without repeal of the Income Tax. But all of our money belongs to the government, so what the heck?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 11:54:38 AM
New Economist/YouGov poll results below

Okay, once again we see the mess in the polling going on. Does one believe the NYT/CBS poll or the large number of National Polls showing other results? BTW, on the NYT poll, there are some "issues".  The methodology was finally released. It includes:

…” The nationwide telephone poll was conducted Oct. 21-25 on cellphones and landlines with 575 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points for each candidate. Additional findings from the full poll will be published Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.“…

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/27/poll-watch-ben-carson-edges-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/ (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/27/poll-watch-ben-carson-edges-ahead-nationally-in-timescbs-news-poll/)

…”[…] For purposes of analysis, Republican registered voters were oversampled in this poll. Phone numbers at which a self-identified Republican registered voter had been interviewed in recent SSRS polls were recalled, and a random member of the household was interviewed. If that person was a Republican registered voter, he or she was included in the oversampling. The Republican oversample was adjusted to account for possible nonresponse to the callback. All partisan categories were then weighted to their proper proportion of the overall population, as determined by averaging the partisan shares from several recent SSRS polls.

Interviewers made multiple attempts to reach every phone number in the survey, calling back unanswered numbers on different days at different times of day and night.

The combined results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to geographic region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, age, education and (for landline households) the number of adults and number of phone lines.

In addition, the sample was adjusted to reflect the percentage of the population residing in mostly Democratic counties, mostly Republican counties and counties more closely balanced politically.”…

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/us/politics/how-the-new-york-times-cbs-poll-was-conducted.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/us/politics/how-the-new-york-times-cbs-poll-was-conducted.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

That’s only a small portion of their explanation. They were polling people that they had previously called and polled in addition to new calls. Then additional "adjustments" were made.

This wasn’t even a random poll, but instead an agenda driven poll.


(https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2015-10-28/GOPOct-27.png)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 28, 2015, 12:01:17 PM
VAT is a surefire way to really cripple our economy.

You mean even further...  Thank you GM and PP for picking up on this.

We had a 'discussion' on the forum some time ago IIRC where it was alleged (bigdog?) that France and Germany had per capita incomes comparable to or better than in the US.  But when the per capita income was measured in PPP, purchasing power parity, which would mean after paying your VAT tax, both France and Germany were found to be poorer than 45 out of 50 states.

The question of comparing consumption taxes and production taxes is that IF we were designing our tax system from scratch and if everyone had the country's best interest in mind, then which type of tax system would be better.

The Founders had tariffs because they didn't want a 1776 IRS or a big, expensive federal government.  But small sources of taxes don't work INSTEAD of income taxes after we already have $4 trillion in unretractable spending and have more than half the people dependent on receiving a check from the government.

We are a union of states and most of us already pay a sales tax, so a 30% tax becomes a 40% tax and all economic activity starts again to move to black market, or do without.

It would still be far easier and fairier to apply a 10% flat tax to all income if that would pay all our bills.  But that can't be passed and it wouldn't pay all our bills.

Maybe the debate will help sort out who is serious and which plans are not.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 12:06:04 PM
Hyperinflation solves everything.........except for the people's ability to eat.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 12:11:38 PM
Wonder if anyone will ask the candidates tonight about the new GOP 2 year budget deal with the Dems?

The deal increases the budget limit, and sets the budget for the next two years. This takes budget campaign issues off the table.

Again I ask............."why should I vote for any politician"?

Title: Limbaugh: "This Budget Paves The Way for President Hillary Clinton"...
Post by: objectivist1 on October 28, 2015, 12:43:31 PM
Rush Limbaugh makes an excellent point here.  This is how far the Republican Party leadership has sunk.  I might add that Paul Ryan's supposed "disgust" for the process is an act - the fix was in from the beginning - and he agreed to it with Boehner.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2015/10/28/how_the_budget_deal_paves_the_way_for_president_hillary_rodham_clinton

Title: Prediction: Trump blows it tonight
Post by: G M on October 28, 2015, 01:06:49 PM
Trump will be targeted by the dem political operative "moderating" and will not do a good job.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 01:44:08 PM
GM,

That is what I expect. It is part of the strategy to take him out.

And the moderator, John Harwood, is a known Dem and Hillary shill.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on October 28, 2015, 02:04:06 PM
I wouldn't be at all surprised if REPUBLICAN operatives have given this moderator ammunition to take out Trump.  That's how much he is despised by the Republican establishment.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 02:30:42 PM
Okay, things get more interesting. Jeb PACs have started ads against Rubio. The them is "Is he Working" and going after the missed votes.

Jeb must feel that he needs to take out Rubio fast to counter "the threat" of Rubio massing more support. The question is where the Rubio support might go.  Likely not to Jeb.

Going to get very interesting.........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 28, 2015, 02:38:36 PM
Rubio is a open borders rhino!-Jeb
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 03:38:38 PM
Kettle calling the pot black........they are both open border RINOs........and they lie
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 05:34:28 PM
Debate

First Question on each person's weakness......

Only Trump and Carson answered. the others did political statements. Screw them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 05:50:31 PM
Definitely Jeb is out to destroy Rubio now. I guess that the Sunday/Monday meeting with Mommy and Daddy found that he had to eliminate Rubio while others tried to take out Trump. After Trump and Rubio fall, then the GOP and Bush go after Carson.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 05:56:23 PM
Cruz did the Gingrich moment attacking the media. Moderators don't know what to do.

He just "won" the debate. His standing will increase significantly.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 28, 2015, 06:44:26 PM
Cruz did the Gingrich moment attacking the media. Moderators don't know what to do.

He just "won" the debate. His standing will increase significantly.

Cruz is a brilliant guy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 07:03:50 PM
The Huckster just scored a Hat Trick!!!!

"I have gone up against the Clinton's time and again, and I have won...........and I have lived to tell about it!!!!"

My respect for him just went up, but I won't vote for him.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 07:20:40 PM
Snarly,

Here is what I cannot get past.

1. continuous eye blinking

2. Head bobbing and moving

3. Condenscending tone

4. Misrepresentations

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 28, 2015, 07:50:29 PM
I thought it was a great debate tonight, with pretty much everyone having good moments, with some having a number of great moments.  I liked the way they more or less came together as a team and underlined the overall strength of Republican bench.  A good night for the home team!


OTOH the moderators got anally raped repeatedly. :evil: :evil: :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 07:56:50 PM
After the Debate analysis......

1. Cruz scored major points leading the attack on the media and moderators. This will increase his support.

2. Carson did himself no harm, but he may lose a bit of support due to the strength of Croz.

3. Christie did okay, but it won't change his position any.

4. Snarly did not improve her position at all. No stand out moment. She may lost a point to Cruz.

5. Rubio did good against Jeb. It was a TKO.

6. Bush is now cooked. It is over. His donors will go to Rubio. He may try to hang on, but his numbers are going to drop.

7. Huckabee did good, but it will not increase his numbers unless he can pull from Carson.

8. Rand, stick a fork in him. The quicker he is gone, the better.

9. Kasich got handed his head. Say goodbye in a month.

10. Trump did no harm. In fact, he is becoming more polished. He did score at the end. This should stem any potential bleeding. (Watch his latest Iowa stop and you see how much better he is becoming.)

Final thoughts........

It is now between Carson, Rubio, Trump and Cruz. So what has to happen from here.

1. Rubio must finish off Jeb and gather his support. Expect the dwarfs support to move more to him.

2. The PACs have to take out Trump. No one else can.

3. Carson and Cruz must develop a strategy to minimize Trump without alienating his support. If they can do that with the PACs efforts, then it could stop further support going to Trump. It will not cause the Trumpkins to move away from him.

Based upon current polling, Trump is in the key position going into the primaries and the convention. If he cannot be stopped from winning the majority of the primaries, then the only alternative is for the GOP to change Rule 40 in the early convention days. Then they turn the convention into a brokered convention. But if they do this and throw the nomination to Rubio, then the Trumpkins stay home and Hillary wins.

CD,

I knew a girl who liked that.......she is about 60 now. Would you like to meet her?   :evil: :evil: :evil:  ( I am so bad!!!)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 28, 2015, 08:47:22 PM
"But if they do this and throw the nomination to Rubio, then the Trumpkins stay home and Hillary wins."


   - I missed the debate.  Enjoying the commentary here.   Wondering...

What does it say about Trumpkins if they can't see a difference between Rubio and Hillary?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 09:01:46 PM
The Trumpkins don't find any difference. Both are supported by the COC and Wall Street firms. And both are politicians.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 28, 2015, 09:08:48 PM
Packing to leave the house tomorrow at 0500.  Would love to dive into an assessment of tonight but I must pack.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 09:17:26 PM
Yeah right.  Are you doing a Hollywood actor and moving  to Europe because Trump will be the next president?  :-D

Can we declare CNBC and MSNDC officially DOA after tonight?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 28, 2015, 09:44:27 PM
About Cruz.....

I like Cruz but he’s like me, a technical type best suited for SCOTUS in his case. (As I told some people today when we were discussing issues,  I know the problems and have the models to resolve the problems, but I cannot market them. I don't have the personality or demeanor. In many ways, Cruz is the same.)

Cruz knows the arguments and can present them, but he can't win it alone as proven by his attempts and failures in the Senate. At best he can only deliver a tie.

The country doesn't have much time left in the game  and this could be it for us and our chance to save the country. There is no overtime. We can’t wait for some smooth setup. What we need right now is a hard charging, hard hitting, run you over, smash mouth full back who runs over the competition. Otherwise we lose.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 29, 2015, 08:22:46 AM
Rubio ended Jeb Bush’s campaign with the kind of body shot that buckles your knees. That’s on Bush, who never should have come after Rubio in that spot for a host of strategic and tactical reasons. But what should scare Hillary Clinton is how effortless Rubio is even with throwaway lines, like “I’m against anything that’s bad for my mother.” Most people have no idea how fearsome raw political talent can be. Clinton does know because she’s seen it up close. She sleeps next to it for a contractually-obligated 18 nights per year.

   - Jonathon Last, Weekly Standard
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 29, 2015, 09:22:02 AM
Agreed. Rubio took a lesson from Tyson.
Title: Ben Carson's Campaign Manager Wants to Re-Invent the Debates...
Post by: objectivist1 on October 29, 2015, 01:16:31 PM
Sounds like an excellent plan to me.  It's time for Reince Priebus to be fired, btw.  Last night was a travesty.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/point/260610/ben-carsons-campaign-manager-wants-reinvent-daniel-greenfield
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 29, 2015, 01:40:37 PM
"It's time for Reince Priebus to be fired,"

Yup.  Clean them all out.

I vote for Doug to take over the party.   Or probably not popular here but Bobby Jindal.   :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 29, 2015, 02:13:47 PM
I think the growing disgust with the GOPe will lead to the end of the GOP unless serious reforms are made now.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 30, 2015, 07:37:06 PM
"It's time for Reince Priebus to be fired,"

Yup.  Clean them all out.

I vote for Doug to take over the party.   Or probably not popular here but Bobby Jindal.   :-D

Blushing. )  Let's go with Bobby Jindal.  I've already agreed to serve as Crafty's VP if the convention can't agree on any of the others.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 31, 2015, 08:22:31 AM
Doug,

So you plan on going to a lot of "state" funerals in place of Crafty?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 31, 2015, 09:49:46 AM
Doug,
So you plan on going to a lot of "state" funerals in place of Crafty?

I can't divulge all our plans but I believe we are already planning a state funeral for the little shit in North Korea.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on October 31, 2015, 01:19:29 PM
Then you need my yorkie to assist in any operations.......he is Force Ruff.......

(https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7203/6932348457_08d4239dc0_z.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 01, 2015, 03:27:42 PM
He looks ready to go!  Was that his Halloween costume or just a typical day defending the pp compound?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 01, 2015, 05:49:46 PM
Neighborhood watch...................Black Lives Matter does not come around here.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 02, 2015, 04:27:37 PM
How will this affect the election?  Obama considering ignoring the courts on immigration amnesty.

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/the-administration/258689-leaked-dhs-memo-shows-obama-might-circumvent-dapa (http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/the-administration/258689-leaked-dhs-memo-shows-obama-might-circumvent-dapa)

How will Rubio, Jeb and Cruz respond?  I KNOW what Trump will say.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on November 02, 2015, 04:43:53 PM
Obama is hell-bent on making sure a Republican can't win this next election.  Make no mistake.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 02, 2015, 05:29:50 PM
For those who believe Rubio is against Amnesty, I direct you to

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/02/marco-rubio-jorge-ramos-will-keep-obamas-first-executive-amnesty-place-legislative-amnesty-enacted/ (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/02/marco-rubio-jorge-ramos-will-keep-obamas-first-executive-amnesty-place-legislative-amnesty-enacted/)

Put Rubio in with Paul Ryan who is in favor of Amnesty, we just might as well open all borders. After all, that is what Soros wants.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 03, 2015, 10:03:11 AM
Yup.  That is a big problem with me too.

Dissolving the concept of nation, country, sovereignty is the major goal of the leftists with Soros one of the biggest ones.  Along with Obama.

Naturally these tyrants believe they should also lead the world under one government with total control over 7 billion people.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 03, 2015, 10:05:45 AM
Andrew Malcolm of the Investors Business Daily really shows his bias. He cites the current WSJ/NBC poll showing Carson at 29% and Trump at 23% nationwide. Then he cites the IDB/TIPP poll in early October showing similar results and the new WSJ poll is confirming the movement.

http://news.investors.com/politics-andrew-malcolm/110315-778808-ben-carson-jumps-in-new-polls-ted-cruz-donald-trump.htm (http://news.investors.com/politics-andrew-malcolm/110315-778808-ben-carson-jumps-in-new-polls-ted-cruz-donald-trump.htm)

What this ass ignores is the newest IDB/TIPP poll for Oct 31 that shows Trump at 28% and Carson at 24%.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/103015-778378-donald-trump-leads-ben-carson-second-in-ibd-tipp-poll.htm?ref=HPLNews (http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-polls/103015-778378-donald-trump-leads-ben-carson-second-in-ibd-tipp-poll.htm?ref=HPLNews)

This is the intellectual dishonesty of the media and pundits. Ignore more recent polls from the company for which you write and present older polls from them to support your bias.

Here is a question for anyone who can answer:

Trump is leading in every state poll except Iowa (and it is moving back and forth) Oklahoma and Louisiana. Carson leads in those states and no one else is close. Trump also leads in most national polls significantly.

How in the world does IDB and WSJ/NBC come in with pools showing Carson leading nationally?  (Wonder what election parameters that they are using to reach their results? How much bias is built in?)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 03, 2015, 10:07:28 AM
But we really know why the push for amnesty. Get amnesty going, then eliminate the borders and we can have the Western Hemisphere Economic Union, just like the ECU. And what a success that has been. :x
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on November 03, 2015, 10:52:44 AM
Also notice how the media today (as Rush Limbaugh illustrated with a media montage of clips) is giddy with excitement that Carson is supposedly overtaking Trump in the polls.  Never mind that they don't take Carson seriously, either.  As Newt has pointed out - these two have been the front-runners from the beginning, and the press is acting as if they aren't serious candidates, and can't wait for them to go away.  These people are in for a very rude awakening.  I think George Will is already constipated just thinking about it...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 03, 2015, 11:08:45 AM
Also, they talk about if Trump begins to lose, he will drop out. They miss the point that Trump is the ultimate competitor. He will not accept dropping in the polls. He will fight like no one else.

When the going gets touch, the tough get going..................
Title: What's up with the Republican VAT tax? Herman Cain's 9-9-9 is alive and well??
Post by: DougMacG on November 03, 2015, 06:55:29 PM
The tax plans from Bush, Trump and Rubio-Lee are all of the same general framework.  Rubio doesn't cut the rates low enough and Trump doesn't raise enough revenue - these are details to be negotiated with congress to get a final bill - if the candidate wins. 

On the other side of it, in addition to Huckabee and his fair tax (VAT tax), are Rand Paul and Ted Cruz who have both come out with tax plans that rely on a new VAT tax.  Paul calls for a 14.5% flat tax on income and a 14.5% Vat tax called a 'business transfer tax'.  Ted Cruz is proposing a 10% flat tax on income plus a 16% 'tax on business', VAT tax.  Great if you think this country with all the tax the rich rhetoric is going to change  that suddenly and switch the emphasis over to the more regressive consumption tax. 

It isn't realistic to me, that we would could a) pass near repeal the income tax on the rich, and b) implement a whole new layer of taxation and c) hope that liberals wull not someday come to power and raise up both tax rates to the sky, on top of the 8-10% tax many states and localities already put on sales and consumption.

My view is that we can't and won't agree to a new consumption tax (or any other new tax) without repeal of the income tax - and that isn't ever going to happen.

On the income tax side. bold cuts like Reagan's would be great but are also not likely to be politically possible, so we have to steer this big ship around a little more gently and gradually.  Propose cuts that are significant enough to grow the economy but modest enough to get elected..  Pass tax reform and regulatory reform and see results enough to turn the corner.  Turn around the trend of people leaving the workforce and businesses closing faster than new ones are opening, grow incomes, grow startups, grow the participation rate enough to curb spending demands.  Then cut again, both tax rates and spending.  And again.  Why not have our growth spiral be upward?

Hong Kong did something like this.  Their flat tax and free trade policies were so effective that they needed to keep lowering the rate to get rid of the excess revenues.

http://archive.freedomandprosperity.org/Papers/hongkong/hongkong.shtml
http://www.forbes.com/2010/02/18/hong-kong-tax-system-law-business-opinions-books-michael-littlewood.html
http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2006/03/flat-tax-is-the-way-of-the-future
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 04, 2015, 10:31:49 AM
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2299&utm_source=jolt&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Jolt11042015&utm_term=Jolt
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 10:42:37 AM
CD,

Are you doing a Fox News?  Only  post the bad Trump polls and not the good ones?   :lol:

As I posted under Carson, the National Polls are all over the place. Quinnipac and others are doing national polls where only 400 people might be polled, but they claim that this is "representative" of the country. This is just too small of a sample for nationwide accuracy.  (Plus, they don't give the true internals nor the "assumptions" that they are making about the electorate.

That said, there does appear to be movement towards Carson after all of the positive publicity he has received over the last few weeks. Cable has been promoting him consistently in a positive light, while doing Trump in a negative light.

What is most important at this stage are the state polls. One must get nominated first in the convention and then go on from there. At this point, Trump does remain the front runner by far for the nomination, unless Carson can remove enough support to take over as front runner in the states.

Again, watch for Convention shenanigans to rule the day in the convention and in backroom deals, through everything to Rubio. And then, Rubio loses in the national election to Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 11:47:43 AM
pp:  "...And then, Rubio loses in the national election to Hillary."

That last part makes no sense.    :wink:

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 04, 2015, 11:54:47 AM
In that the trend has been for ALL polls showing Trump in the lead (ignoring the ones that compared him with Hillary) it is worth noting a change in the trend AND this thread certainly has you to represent it here so no need for me to duplicate your work  :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 12:20:16 PM
Doug,

If it takes GOPe shenanigans in the convention to get Rubio nominated, then a large part of the GOP insurrection group will sit out, throwing the election to Hillary. Why bother to vote when the GOPe does not listen to its members, but instead to what Wall Street, the COC and other special interest groups do?

CD,

As to the polls, again I ask............"why are the National Polls showing such different results among themselves and also the State Polls?  What is the difference and what is being missed"?

Title: More Emails Show Hillary to be a Liar...
Post by: objectivist1 on November 04, 2015, 12:42:48 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/03/emails-released-state-dept-contradict-hillary-clintons-benghazi-testimony/

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Trump still trashing his Republican colleagues
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 12:45:33 PM
Trump:  Carson doesn't have the temperament to be President.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/11/03/trump_carson_doesnt_have_temperament_experience_for_president.html

The calling the kettle _____, well whatever.


Donald Trump on Marco Rubio: "He's An Overrated Person"
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/11/02/donald_trump_on_marco_rubio_hes_an_overrated_person.html
. Marco doesn’t show up to votes," Trump said, "he doesn’t do things that you’re supposed to do."

Trump goes on and on and on and doesn't land a punch.

Here is a little info on candidates rated and over-rated.  

Rubio (I have pointed out) won swing state Florida by a million votes over a popular sitting governor.  He beat the Dem by a million and a half.  This is just 10 years after the Bush v Gore fiasco, 10 years of demographics allegedly moving away from conservative Republicans.  

Trump and Carson (obviously) have never won a primary or an election.
Cruz defeated a popular, sitting Lt Gov in his primary and won the election, in red state Texas.
Hillary Clinton has never won an election outside of bluest state New York.
Only Jeb and Kasich can match or surpass Rubio's swing state success.

If Rubio is nowhere in the polls and over-rated, why is he the fixation of Trump's attention?  Rubio moved through a pack of 17 from "nowhere" to 3rd place, and first place of those who have politcal experience, in case that turns out to be a positive factor.

Trump's bragging rights include pretending to foresee the future.  1st place now might or might not be better than 3rd place now, but 1st place Aug-Oct is not better than 1st place in March - May.

The delegate score right now is zero to zero to zero...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 04, 2015, 12:45:54 PM
Pat:

Of course you raise fair points above the diverse results of the various polls.  I'm certainly not claiming the one I posted is the one true poll.

That said, the Trump comments described by Doug in his post immediately prior to this one to me sound like a one trick pony getting a bit desperate when the crowd has seen his one trick more than one time too many.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 12:57:51 PM
Why attack Rubio from a purely tactical perspective:

1. Rubio is the heir apparent to Bush and his failure. Supporters leaving Bush and going to Rubio is a large part of the surge of Rubio.

2. Attacking Rubio right now may cause some hesitation by Bush supporters to move to Rubio.

3. For a Trump splitter strategy, it is important to keep Bush running. As long as Bush stays in, Rubio has less of a likelihood of winning many states.

4. Negating Rubio may allow Trump to garner some of Carson's support if Carson falters.

5. These actions may also serve to lessen Cruz strengthening in the polls a bit.

This is all about positioning for the primaries and keeping other candidates from gaining too much strength. It is in many ways the original Bush strategy for winning the nomination with 25 - 30% of the vote. Trump is simply using the GOPe tactics against them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 01:00:42 PM
Doug,

If it takes GOPe shenanigans in the convention to get Rubio nominated, then a large part of the GOP insurrection group will sit out, throwing the election to Hillary. Why bother to vote when the GOPe does not listen to its members, but instead to what Wall Street, the COC and other special interest groups

pp,  If the polls today are the same as the polls during the primaries, Trump will win under all sets of rules.

That said, getting people friendly to your cause elected to delegates and positions of power and influence in the state and national parties is part of politics and part of the process.  But in the primary when it counts, the chair and the committee members get only one vote just like everyone else.  

If you, Trump or anyone else want to tell us they will stay home to get Hilary elected because Rubio or someone else won the most votes and delegates to win the nomination, I can't stop you, but I will share the consequences that you deserve.

As honest and smart of a fellow that I believe you are, I don't believe you won't see a difference between Rubio (or any of them that might win) and Hillary by this time in November of 2016.

I favor Rubio for just exactly that reason; I believe he can inspire the most people to turn out and vote our way.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 01:22:19 PM
"Rubio is the heir apparent to Bush and his failure. Supporters leaving Bush and going to Rubio is a large part of the surge of Rubio."

True, but Trump is saying the opposite, that both are basically losers, getting no support.  As an old boss of mine said after having it pointed out that my division doubled our sales and won a national award for it, two time sh*t is still sh*t.  By attacking, Trump is acknowledging the reality of a 'Rubio surge' - before it happens.

Along the same lines, Trump is calling for Bush to 'drop out "like Walker did', when he knows that him saying that just pressures Bush all the more to stay in.  Clever or strategic you might say, but reveals he is hardly a straight shooter or non-politician.

Meanwhile we still haven't heard anything close to a straight answer on how he would execute his headline issue, the promise to deport 11 million illegals.  I will try

We haven't heard how because he won't do it.  Just a run of the mill, typical politician, political promise.   No? 

http://forums.talkingpointsmemo.com/t/discussion-trump-dodges-specific-questions-on-how-he-will-facilitate-mass-deportation/26788
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/08/23/as-rivals-snipe-trump-dodges-questions-on-details-of-immigration-plan/?_r=0
http://politicalwire.com/2015/08/24/trump-dodges-questions-on-details-of-immigration-plan/

Trump did not detail how he would handle illegal immigrants en masse, arguing that the only reason these questions are being asked is because of his tough stance on the issue.
http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/08/24/donald-trump-defends-mass-deportation-illegal-immigrants-oreilly-factor
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 01:28:22 PM
Doug,

I go back to what I have seen time and again over the decades, and I am through with the entire mess. What I mean:

1. 2012 - Romney is the electable one. He will represent the values of the Conservative Movement. He learned his lesson on Romney Care. He is a winner. And what did we get? A loser who had the best position in which to win an election with an incumbent president who should never have been re-elected. And now he brags about Romney Care leading to ObamaCare.

Would he have made a difference if elected? Not likely. A nice guy who would not make waves.

2. 2008 - McCain, the RINO who was also electable. Yeah right. His team even sabotaged his own VP selection. If elected, he would have only initiated RINO type legislation and allowing amnesty. Just an absolute joke.

3. 2000 through 2008 - Bush, the compassionate conservative. Another term for a RINO republican. Bush added more social programs and spending that anyone before him. Hell, Bush could not even beat Gore in the popular vote.

4. 1996 - Dole, another "winner". Yawn.....

5. 1988 to 1992 - Bush Sn. Read my lips, no new taxes............and we got new taxes.

6. 1980 to 1988 - Reagan, the only good Republican in my lifetime. And the GOPe did not want him. They wanted Bush.

7. 1976 - Ford. I will give Ford credit on one thing. No Republican, even Reagan, could have won in 1976. Carter was purely the result of the Nixon calamity.

8. 1968 to 1976 - Nixon. What can I say? Terrible "economic" president. Wage/Price Controls, Dropping the Gold Standard.

I haven't seen a good Republican President or candidate since Ronald Reagan. Now, I am expected to believe that someone like Rubio will be any different?

Rubio was elected by the Tea Party support, and then he dropped them. Rubio was for amnesty before he was against it, and now with Ramos, he speaks in spanish and essentially says he is for it. His Super PACS are all Wall Street or COC groups. His latest PAC is put together by another Amnesty supporter.

Voting for Rubio or most others will not change the direction of the country.

The truth is that if anyone but Cruz or Trump is the nominee, I will stay home and so will many others. Might as well hasten the fall of the country so it can start all over.

(Just like Bernacke and the Fed with Housing. Get out of the way and let it collapse and rebuild. If we had done what was needed in 2009 to correct things, then housing and lending would be well corrected by now and not just stumbling along.)

Why do we NEED professional politicians in DC? They are no better than attorneys. Just paid prostitutes who will screw you any chance they get......................





Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 01:37:10 PM
Doug,

First, do you think that Trumps' reputation means anything to him? If he is not "honest" to the point that he can be, he will destroy his "brand". There ends his business career and also future profits.

If he details point by point how he is going to get rid of the illegals, he is doing the same damned thing that Obama did in Iraq. "We are leaving Iraq in 2011, pulling everyone out." And what happened, the enemy laid low until we left, and then there went the country..........all the lives and money wasted. This is the same thing that will occur if Trump details a complete plan.

Why isn't anyone asking for all the details on immigration from Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina or others?  Why are they not asked what they will do and how they will accomplish it? Isn't it fair to ask them the same thing?

As to attacking before Rubio does surge, doesn't that make sense tactically? Why let Rubio gain ground where he can take control when you can stop him before that point?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 01:42:55 PM
Great story pp and I share your frustration on those others but Rubio's vision and capabilities are nothing at all like Bob Dole, Gerald Ford, McCain, Romney etc. (To be debated further no doubt)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Now this:

Rubio backs Cruz on tougher penalties for illegal immigrants
http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/257867-rubio-backs-cruz-on-tougher-penalties-for-illegal-immigrants

And this:

Jorge Ramos:
 “those Latinos, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, have decided not to defend undocumented immigrants.
http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/11/02/ramos-trump-promoting-bigotry-cant-understand-why-rubio-and-cruz-arent-defending-immigrants/

The real difference in policy between Trump and Rubio on immigration is not as clear as you make it out to be (IMHO), while the difference between Rubio and Hillary is.
(That he negotiated with the Democrats to try to get a bill into conference to head off a worse action by Obama is a stubborn truth that he can't make go away.)


If you care about this issue only and it comes down to Rubio and Hillary, you will have a simple choice to make.  Sit home against your own interest or go out, hold your nose and pull the lever.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 01:51:04 PM
Doug,

First, do you think that Trumps' reputation means anything to him? If he is not "honest" to the point that he can be, he will destroy his "brand". There ends his business career and also future profits.

If he details point by point how he is going to get rid of the illegals, he is doing the same damned thing that Obama did in Iraq. "We are leaving Iraq in 2011, pulling everyone out." And what happened, the enemy laid low until we left, and then there went the country..........all the lives and money wasted. This is the same thing that will occur if Trump details a complete plan.

Why isn't anyone asking for all the details on immigration from Rubio, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina or others?  Why are they not asked what they will do and how they will accomplish it? Isn't it fair to ask them the same thing?

As to attacking before Rubio does surge, doesn't that make sense tactically? Why let Rubio gain ground where he can take control when you can stop him before that point?

The rhetoric is extreme; the policy will be pragmatic.  If he spells out some system of identifying and hunting down every illegal he will scare the electorate half to death.  If he admits the he like everyone else will only send the newest and the worst of them back, then he loses his edge and his policy falls into the no-gray-area definition you have been using of "supporting amnesty".

I am accusing him of being a typical politician on this.

Wouldn't you agree that we learned a lot about the candidates and also about the advisers they will rely on when we demanded actual tax reform details instead of just the it-will-be-great rhetoric - from all of them.

Speaking of wishy washy people like Ford and Romney, isn't it a waste of our time to follow these people so closely, watch them get questioned, listen for all the subtleties, and then still not get to learn the details of their central reason for running. 

And no, this is not like telling the world your war strategy.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 02:36:10 PM
Here is how to go after illegals once elected.

Day 1

1. Start construction on the Wall. Let everyone know that you are serious.

2. Immediately order real enforcement of the Border. Apprehend and send back anyone crossing immediately.

3. Order customs to develop an immediate plan to investigate and verify status of people applying for entry. This should be expedited and ready to go within three months.

4. Develop logistics for returning to different countries criminal aliens in the US held in prison or who are gang members. Start immediate deportation.

Yes, this will scare the hell out of people and show that the country is serious.


Now, for those who are here illegally but working.

5. First assumption to be made is that they want to stay and to do so legally. If so, then once the legal verification system is in place, have it set up where a person goes across the border, does the paperwork and then can re-enter on successful application. What this does is to encourage them to leave and return and in shortest time possible. The large majority would presumably want to do this.

6. For those who do not want to do this, we make it very difficult for them to continue to work. Current employment measures exist to make sure that people are here legally who want to work, enforce the regulations that require employers to check the person out. If the person cannot work, then he will go across the border and fill out all paperwork so as to return.

7. For those collecting benefits unlawfully, cut off the benefits. They go back or starve. And if they leave and fill out the paperwork to return, they do so knowing that the benefits will not be available to them. So they work or starve.

8. Those that remain are to be found and sent back to whence they came. They don't want to be here legally, then they have no right to be here at all and get sent home.

The key is to set up the programs and then to create a voluntary plan for illegals to follow if they want to be legal. This way, they self deport and do things right. Anyone else, and to hell with them.

As to sitting home or voting for the lesser of two evils, I have done that too many times. And look at the shape of the country based upon this type of voting.

IMO, we are only a few years away from complete collapse anyway. Neither side has the will or determination to do what is needed to correct the current course. So collapse ins inevitable unless something changes dramatically.

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results that never come. The results of either Rubio or Hillary will be the same, maybe just taking a bit longer with one or the other. Isn't it time to try something different?

I am running into this same situation right now dealing with the banks, the GSEs and the Regulatory Agencies on mortgage lending issues. They are doing the same things that caused the housing collapse in 2008, in 1993, in 1988 with the S & L's and numerous other times. The problem is that each time, it gets worse and worse. Yet no one wants to do what is necessary to correct the problems because it will be harmful to their own personal interests. The only avenue forward then is to destroy the GSE's, FHA, and the banks and start over again.

So be it with the country..........

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 04, 2015, 07:45:14 PM
PP,  You and I aren't very far apart on the issues and the common sense plan you propose sounds a lot like what I would expect someone like Rubio, Cruz or Carson to propose if pinned down, Trump too.

"For those collecting benefits unlawfully, cut off the benefits."

Unfortunately I think the benefits they are collecting like free public schools and healthcare for example are legal, so first step there is to make them unlawful.  (Good luck with that.) 

All the emphasis is on employer verification but what about housing?  Is it illegal to rent or sell housing to an illegal to reside in, or (far more likely) is it illegal not to?  Why not crack down on that next?  (Another thing that will never happen.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 04, 2015, 08:31:49 PM
For public schools, the problem is that each school gets to dip into the public trough for each student enrolled. The more students and the more attendance, the more money coming their way. For example, in my city there is the new high school built about 15 years ago. Literally, those from surrounding cities and from Oakland or Richmond over 30 miles away, make arrangements for their kids to attend school here. They claim that the kids live with "family" in the city, and therefore entitled to go to school here. Of course, the school district will not question a thing because it means that they would have to deny enrollment and therefore miss out on the government dollars.

As to the question of legality of non-legal students to attend school here, I am not sure that it is legal. Take the case of someone who is here on a Visa for 6 months and has a kid of school age. Would this impose upon the local district the requirement to educate the student? I don't believe that there is legal requirement under the law.

For hospitals, it is probably a legal requirement. Hospitals face heavy government regulation regarding treating people. Though it may be possible to turn away people if you are a private hospital and the patient does not have insurance or means to pay.  Circumstances will certainly dictate, as well as the DOJ under Obama.

Housing is interesting. Under the law, lenders can only lend to those who are here legally. An illegal would not be allowed to get a loan. Of course, during the housing boom, companies under the GM umbrella like RESCAP ignored the requirement. They would simply not ask for proof of legal residency.

For those renting, there are no legal requirements. But if they haven't a job, credit or other verifiable information, they will not be able to rent, so that should not be an issue.
Title: Seriatim polls vs. Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2015, 08:31:06 AM
As I have mentioned before, the most important poll is the one against the Dowager Empress of Chappaqua. (DEC)

Working from memory, polls reported on FOX showing the following candidates beating DEC.

a) Carson (by 10 points?!)
b) Chris Christie (!) by 4-5
c) Marco Rubio by 4-5
d) Ted Cruz by 3

Losing to DEC was the Donald, by 3.

Again, I may not have the margins right, but am rather sure about the gist of it.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 05, 2015, 09:35:37 AM
Yes, that is  the Fox poll. But others show him winning against Hillary.

The more important polls are the state pools that show him winning against Hillary in the various states. That is all about the electoral votes needed to win the Presidency.  Watch for the trends there.
Title: Rove: It may take more than one round at the convention
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2015, 09:37:36 AM
The Path to a Wild GOP Convention
Primary rules open the possibility that no candidate will win a majority of delegates.
By Karl Rove
Nov. 4, 2015 7:17 p.m. ET

At the past 16 Republican National Conventions, the party’s presidential nominee has been selected on the first ballot. That long streak might end next year. For the first time since 1948, when the GOP nominated Thomas E. Dewey for president after three rounds of voting, Republicans might take more than one ballot to settle on their nominee.

A few factors have increased the chances of a multi-ballot convention. First, Republicans have the largest field of serious contenders in history: 17 candidates entered the race and 15 remain. The bigger the field, the longer it could take to settle the contest.

Five candidates are polling as asterisks in the Real Clear Politics average: Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. It’s hard to imagine them breaking out.

Another five candidates are polling at less than 5% on average but have enough money or stage presence to last at least through February’s Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. They are: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. They might not endure past the early contests unless they dramatically beat expectations.

That leaves five contenders who today appear to have the message, money, organization and poll numbers to play the long game: neurosurgeon Ben Carson, real-estate magnate Donald Trump, Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

What complicates the picture is the GOP’s rule requiring the 28 jurisdictions (states, territories and the District of Columbia) that vote before March 15 to award their delegates proportionally. The exception is South Carolina, whose winner-take-all primary was grandfathered in. Add in the eight states voting on or after March 15 that also award their delegates proportionally, and some 60% of the convention’s likely total of 2,470 will be allotted that way.

Of these delegates awarded on a proportional basis, some states require a candidate to hit a floor—say, 20% or 15% of the vote. Others have lower thresholds or none at all. For example, Iowa’s 30 delegates will be divvied up proportionately with no minimum, meaning candidates win a delegate for each 3.3% of the vote they receive. The upshot is that by mid-March the top three or four candidates may be separated by only a small number of delegates, giving the leader a plurality, not a majority.

Then comes the Ides of March, when winner-take-all contests kick off. On March 15 five states and one territory, awarding 361 delegates, will vote. Of these, 292 will be winner-take-all. This day could play a critical role in culling the field. The four final March contests that follow could cut the contenders to two.

The survivors will move on to scattered contests throughout April and May—the exception being April 26, when five northeastern states vote, with Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates as the big prize. The final primaries will be held June 7, when 294 delegates, all but 21 chosen by winner-take-all, will be at stake. California and New Jersey will dominate that day.

Still, with only around 40% of the delegates chosen in winner-take-all contests, they may be splintered enough that no candidate commands an outright majority. A complicating factor is that roughly 8% of the delegates will arrive at the convention unbound, free to vote for their choice of candidate. The delegates from Wyoming (29), North Dakota (28) and Guam (9) will be officially uncommitted, as will all but 14 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates.

Moreover, GOP rules allow for the creation of “superdelegates,” with more than half of state parties exercising the option to make their chairman, national committeewoman and national committeeman automatic delegates. These uncommitted delegates, 210 in all, could be the most fluid force in the convention if no candidate has locked in victory.

It is unlikely that the GOP will reprise 1880, when it took 36 ballots to nominate James A. Garfield, who wasn’t even a candidate when the convention began. But it is possible that the nomination will still be up for grabs when the GOP convention opens on July 18, and that delegates could need more than one ballot to select the party’s candidate. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. After all, Republicans took three ballots in 1860 to pick a fellow named Lincoln.

Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of “The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the 1896 Election Still Matters,” out Nov. 24 from Simon & Schuster.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 05, 2015, 10:42:14 AM
Thank you for posing this. This is the beginning of the Road Map for having Bush or Rubio as the nominee which was created by Rove and the GOPe.  And the plan was for a Wild Convention based upon Bush initially having only 25% support levels.

1. Notice the 210 super delegates. These are all GOPe insiders. Guess where they will go............Bush/Rubio.

2. Any candidate without 8 primary wins cannot be placed into nomination at the convention. Their delegates are released to go to whomever they chose. Usually, they will follow the GOPe lead.

3. How many candidates have a realistic chance of getting 8 wins at this time? Trump, maybe Carson, and Rubio. Take out Trump and then add Cruz.

4. Watch for Rule 40 changes during the convention. If Trump or Carson have been the only ones to have met the 8 win requirement, Rule 40 changes will allow the requirement to be waved so that Bush or Rubio can be put into nomination. Then they can get the at large and released delegates.

This is why I expect Rubio to be the nominee (or Bush if he can turn it around). The GOPe has the ability to manipulate the outcome and that is why Rove wrote this article. He is prepping everyone for just this event.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 05, 2015, 01:00:39 PM
Okay. I absolutely surrender trying to figure out the polls. There are not enough internals given to understand what is really going on. For example, today comes the Elon University Poll of North Carolina. 

Carson 31 and Trump 19

But the week before, PPP finds:

Trump 31 and Carson 23

The differences are all coming from the assumptions that are being made about the electorate. Depending upon the assumptions, the results are going to be different.

Guess the real polling is looking at the crowds at rallys............
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 05, 2015, 02:33:21 PM
Polling is notoriously inaccurate this early.  We are looking for trends but just finding things are still bouncing around.  This race is very fluid.  If I was the presumed frontrunner, I would be quite nervous about that.   )
Title: Trump and others in FL seriatim vs. Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2015, 02:59:58 PM
No idea as to the reliability of this site:

http://reviveusa.com/trump-beats-bush-with-hispanics-in-florida/

Do note that most Latinos in Florida are Cuban-Americans and they tend to have very different voting patterns from Mexicans, Central Americans, and South Americans.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 05, 2015, 03:38:15 PM
Doug,

Just watch and listen to me............I AM the trend....... :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 05, 2015, 03:47:44 PM
"Do note that most Latinos in Florida are Cuban-Americans". 

Also depends on which county.  Miami-Dade yes.  Some of the orange groves and agricultural counties are mostly Mexican Latins.  Others like Orange (Orlando) are majority Puerto Ricans:   

http://www.floridatrend.com/article/15517/hispanic-diversity-in-florida-map
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 05, 2015, 08:36:18 PM
Fair enough.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Primary Rules Advantage to Moderates
Post by: ppulatie on November 06, 2015, 10:13:46 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/

This article addresses the advantage of moderates with the Primary Rules, but IMO, he misses the mark. Essentially he is talking about delegate numbers going into the convention and how the distribution of delegates in the larger states favor the moderates.

Wasserman is correct as far as he goes, but he does not address the elephant in the room. A candidate must win 8 states to have his name placed into nomination. Without this, the candidate is DOA at the convention unless the GOPe changes Rule 40 to allow candidates to have their named placed into nomination with less than 8 wins.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 07, 2015, 08:59:13 AM
I just took another look at Rule 40 for the RNC Convention. This rule governs placing a name in nomination. It took effect for this election cycle.

2012:  RNC rule No. 40(b) states:
Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a plurality of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

2016:
a candidate to have a majority of delegate votes in at least eight states as a prerequisite to nomination.

Under the change, the winner of a state must have 50% + 1 of the total votes case to count towards the 8 needed states.

Who does this benefit? The candidates with the most money to be able to run strong in all 50 states. And at this point, probably the only people are:

Jeb
Rubio
Carson
Cruz
Trump

In reality, what does this mean?

1. While the dwarfs remain in the process, each will drain votes away so that no one will obtain a majority of votes to count towards the 8 wins needed for nomination. So essentially all the states prior to Mar 15 will not otherwise count towards the 8 wins.

2.  After Mar 15, majority wins will be difficult until at least 2 and probably 3 others fall out. So if all 5 remain running until the last primary in Jun, it is likely that no one will have the 8 wins needed.

3. If no one has 8 wins, then Rule 40 must be changed so that one or more candidates can have their names placed into nomination.

The strategy:

1. Trump - Trump must stay in the race and continue to gain votes. His strength must persuade at least three others to drop out, including Cruz and Carson. Otherwise he cannot win the 8 states necessary and any change in Rule 40 would have negative consequences to him. After all, all delegates that are pledged to a candidate that does not get placed into nomination are free to go to whom they want, probably to RNC favored candidates.

2. Carson - Carson must employ the same strategy, and really focus on Trump and knocking him out.

3. Cruz - Cruz has the same issues with Carson and Trump.

Here is where either Rubio or Jeb have it different.

They only need to keep everyone running past Mar 15. This dilutes the primary voting so that no one gets 8 wins. Then Rule 40 comes into play and everything gets manipulated so that either Bush or Rubio are the nominee.

For the GOPe, if it appears that the nomination has been manipulated in favor of Bush or Rubio, all credibility for the future is lost. The mini-revolution in the party will result in all out warfare that will tear the party apart for a decade or two. The reason is that the GOPe will be seen as pushing their own interests and not that of the people who make up the party.

If Rubio can win under these circumstances, and using Romney as an example of not winning, Rubio cannot keep advancing the goals of the COC and Wall Street. He will have to pay attention to the Trump/Carson/Cruz faction. If he does, he can help heal the party. But if he takes the GOPe route, it will do even greater harm to the GOP and end any hope of future control.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 07, 2015, 09:50:50 AM
That was very helpful Pat, thank you.

Inter alia, it sheds light on why yesterday I heard Rubio expressing regret at Christie and Huckabee not being included.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 07, 2015, 10:12:30 AM
Now you see why I say that Rubio will be the nominee, assuming a complete Bush collapse. There is simply no way that the GOPe would ever allow Trump, Cruz or Carson to be the nominee, even with overwhelming support for one of them.

And you can see why if Rule 40 is invoked, it is all over for the GOP in the future.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 07, 2015, 10:56:26 AM
Something upon which to reflect.

Changing subjects:

A quick list please of who is for and who is against the TPP Treaty?

Title: WSJ: Cruz vs. Rubio
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 08, 2015, 07:53:25 AM

By Janet Hook
Updated Nov. 8, 2015 10:26 a.m. ET
17 COMMENTS

Two of the presidential candidates who gained the most traction out of the last Republican debate are a pair of 44-year-old Cuban-Americans who are first-term U.S. senators.

There the similarity ends, and their differences define a fork in the road for the Republican Party.

Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, after standout performances at the debate in Colorado last month, have both seen a spike in media attention, donations and poll standings. But they are appealing to very different wings of the GOP electorate, with Mr. Cruz rallying anti-Washington conservative forces and Mr. Rubio drawing strength from to the party’s business-friendly establishment wing.

Their differences of both style and substance will surface again Tuesday in the fourth GOP debate in Milwaukee, where both senators will try to keep the momentum going in a forum focusing on economic issues.

Mr. Cruz rails against illegal immigrants; Mr. Rubio takes a more welcoming approach. Mr. Cruz opposed President Barack Obama’s fast-track trade bill; Mr. Rubio supported it. Mr. Cruz traffics in the highflying oratory of an evangelical minister’s son; Mr. Rubio’s brand of eloquence is more low key.

Both senators still trail the political novices— Donald Trump and Ben Carson—who lead the GOP field. But the Cruz-Rubio surge raises a surprising prospect: Two Cuban Americans are moving from long-shot to top-tier candidates in a party that has struggled to win support from Hispanic voters.

Mr. Cruz said in a recent CNN interview it was “plausible” that the primary would wind up being a Rubio-Cruz faceoff, citing a history of GOP contests that pitted a conservative against a more-moderate candidate.

“I think Marco is certainly formidable,” Mr. Cruz said. But, he added, ”once it gets down to a head-to-head contest between a conservative and a moderate…I think the conservative wins.”

A super PAC supporting Mr. Cruz took off the gloves last week in an ad in Iowa that attacked Mr. Rubio for his record on immigration.

“We all loved how Marco Rubio took apart Jeb Bush in the debate,” says the narrator of an ad from the pro-Cruz PAC, Courageous Conservatives. “But what’s Rubio ever done?…Marco Rubio looks good on TV, but that’s about it.’’

That is very different from the tone of a major Senate debate in 2013—the filibuster to block funding for Obamacare—when Mr. Cruz showered his colleague with praise. “I don’t know if there is anyone more effective, more articulate, or a more persuasive voice for conservative principles than my friend Marco Rubio,” Mr. Cruz said.

Mr. Rubio’s spokesman declined to comment.

Both senators were propelled to new prominence by signal moments in the Colorado debate. Mr. Cruz grabbed center stage when he attacked the CNBC moderators for what he said were biased questions. That drew viewer interest so strong that his campaign website crashed during the debate. In the 22 hours following the debate, he raised $1.1 million.

Mr. Rubio’s standout moment came in his withering riposte to Jeb Bush, after the former Florida governor tried to scold him about his Senate attendance record. Just days later, Mr. Rubio picked up the coveted endorsement of GOP megadonor Paul Singer, a wealthy hedge-fund investor. He was also endorsed by three members of the Senate, an institution where Mr. Cruz has alienated many colleagues.

Their poll ratings also rose after the debate, and they consistently showed in third and fourth place behind Messrs Carson and Trump.

The two are colliding after following parallel paths to the Senate: Both were elected—Mr. Rubio in 2010 and Mr. Cruz in 2012—with tea-party support in primaries against establishment-backed candidates.

They have similar immigrant-family roots, but they tell their story to different ends in their campaigns, and have arrived at different conclusions on immigration policy.

Mr. Rubio, who speaks fluent Spanish, is the son of a bartender and maid who emigrated from Cuba in 1956. Hs life story is a cornerstone of his stump speech, and he tells it—sometimes in Spanish—in part to build appeal with Hispanic voters.

He was an architect of the comprehensive 2013 immigration bill, which included a path to citizenship for the millions of people in the U.S. illegally. He backed away from the bill when it died in the House. He now argues for a piecemeal approach to policy change. And he has hardened his position against President Barack Obama’s executive order granting legal status for young, undocumented immigrants.

Mr. Cruz is a harsh critic of offering citizenship to illegal immigrants, which he calls “amnesty,” and focuses like a laser on securing the border. Javier Palomarez head of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, sees that hard line as rooted in Mr. Cruz’s training in the law and constitutional conservative theory.

“He welcomes and celebrates legal immigration—but he will stop right there and not go one inch further,” said Mr. Palomarez, who has held a question-and-answer forum with Mr. Cruz and is awaiting one with Mr. Rubio.

Mr. Cruz doesn't speak fluent Spanish, and he tells his family story less to connect with Hispanics than to appeal to evangelicals. His father, who left Cuba to escape the Batista regime, developed a drinking problem and left his son and wife; but he recovered when he found God, came home to his family and became an evangelical minister.

While both senators benefited from initial tea party support, Mr.Rubio kept his distance from the movement after going to the Senate. Mr. Cruz, by contrast, is a tea party icon, and the movement’s support is central to his presidential campaign. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Mr. Cruz was the first choice of 22% of tea party voters; 9% picked Mr. Rubio.

The senators share a history of supporting free trade policies. But Mr. Cruz, facing a backlash from tea party activists and conservative media, this year switched positions and ended up voting against “fast track” legislation to expedite approval of trade deals. Mr. Rubio supported fast track. Mr. Cruz is “skeptical” of the Trans Pacific Partnership; Mr. Rubio is inclined to support the deal, a priority of business groups.

Scott Reed, political analyst for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, declined to comment on the GOP candidates but said the election will be hugely consequential for the business community.

“The country is at a real fork in the road,“ Mr. Reed said, ”and this is shaping up to be the most important election of our lifetime.”

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Meet the Press panel
Post by: DougMacG on November 08, 2015, 07:38:46 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/11/08/meet_the_press_panel_hugh_hewitt_and_rachel_maddow_battle_over_ben_carson.html

The first argument is interesting, Hugh Hewitt vs. Rachel Madow .  Gwen Ifill and Politico's Mark Caouto.

They also get into the non-story on Rubio's credit card.
Title: Judge Andrew Napolitano: Hillary Clinton Unfit for Public Office...
Post by: objectivist1 on November 09, 2015, 11:54:07 AM
We cannot allow Hillary Clinton, 'midwife to chaos' and a public liar, to be our next president

By Judge Andrew P. Napolitano
Published October 29, 2015
FoxNews.com

The New York Times’ Maureen Dowd captured the moment last weekend when she referred to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as “the midwife to chaos” in Libya. Dowd apparently came to that conclusion after watching Clinton bobbing and weaving and admitting and denying as she was confronted with the partial record of her failures and obfuscations as secretary of state, particularly with respect to Libya.

The public record is fairly well-known. In March 2011, President Barack Obama declared war on Libya. He did this at the urging of Clinton, who wanted to overthrow Libyan strongman Col. Moammar Gadhafi so she could boast of having brought “democracy” to the region.

She and Obama conspired to do this even though former President George W. Bush and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair had publicly praised Gadhafi as an ally in the war against terrorist groups and even though the U.S. was giving the Qaddafi government more than $100 million a year in foreign aid.

Obama did his best to avoid constitutional norms. He deployed American intelligence agents on the ground, not troops, so he could plausibly deny he had put “boots” on the ground. He did not seek an American national consensus for war because Libya presented no threat whatsoever to the U.S. He did not obtain a congressional declaration of war as the Constitution requires because he couldn’t get one. And he did not seek United Nations permission, which is required to attack a fellow U.N. member.

Every four years, we entrust awesome power to a person who swears to protect the Constitution. How could we give that power to a consistent public liar?

He did obtain a U.N. embargo of the shipment of weapons into Libya, and he secured a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over portions of Libya. In order to enforce the no-fly zone, NATO sent jet fighters over the skies of Libya. The jets were guided and directed by American intelligence agents on the ground to bomb Libyan planes on the ground, which had been paid for by American taxpayers.

To pursue her goal of a “democratic” government there, Clinton, along with Obama and a dozen or so members of Congress from both houses and both political parties, decided she should break the law by permitting U.S. arms dealers to violate the U.N. arms embargo and arm Libyan rebels whom she hoped would one day run the new government. So she exercised her authority as secretary of state to authorize the shipment of American-made arms to Qatar, a country beholden to the Muslim Brotherhood and friendly to the Libyan rebels and a country the U.S. had no business arming -- unless the purpose of doing so was for the arms to be transferred to the rebels.

Once this plot was hatched, Clinton and her fellow conspirators realized that some of these rebel groups were manned by al-Qaida operatives; and selling or providing arms to them is a felony -- hence the reason for months' worth of missing and destroyed Clinton emails. How could someone running for president possibly justify providing material assistance to terrorist organizations in the present international climate?

Flash-forward to Clinton’s public testimony before the House Benghazi Committee last week. Clinton had three audiences to address. Her immediate audience was the committee, whose members generally did not know how to ask questions of a witness trying to hide the truth. Her second audience was the American people, who will recall little more than 15-second sound bites and general impressions of her testimony. Her third (unseen) audience consisted of the FBI agents and federal prosecutors who are investigating her.

That audience was looking for perjury, misleading statements and what federal law calls “bad acts.” Perjury is lying under oath. Misleading Congress is criminal and consists of testimony that employs deceptive language so as to create an untruthful impression. Bad acts constitute repeated behavior demonstrating moral turpitude -- usually a pattern of deception.

The FBI agents surely heard Clinton mislead Congress when she answered a hard question about arms going to rebels by saying “I think the answer is no” and again when she answered a question about arming private militias by saying it may have been considered but wasn't “seriously” considered. And they heard her directly commit perjury when she was asked whether she knew about our country's supplying arms to Libyan rebels directly or indirectly and she answered, “No.”

How could she answer "no"? She not only knew about the sending of arms to rebels but also personally authored and authorized it. How could she answer "no"? The FBI and CIA advised her -- in documents that are now public -- that U.S. arms were making their way to known al-Qaida operatives. How could she answer "no"? This reached a crisis point when some of those operatives used their American-made weapons to murder U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens at the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi.

Then the cover-up began. At the same time Clinton was telling her daughter and the Egyptian prime minister within hours of Stevens’ death that al-Qaida killed him and after the CIA told her the plot to kill Stevens had been hatched 12 days earlier, she told the public that Stevens was killed by spontaneous demonstrators angered about a cheap anti-Islam video, the producer of which she vowed to “get.” She later angrily dismissed questions over this cover-up by arguing, “What difference, at this point, does it make?”

The difference it makes goes to the heart of the American electoral process. Every four years, we entrust awesome power to a person who swears to protect the Constitution. How could we give that power to a consistent public liar who, for personal political gain, midwifed terror and chaos in a country that was our ally and whose words and behavior have continually demonstrated that she is utterly unworthy of belief?

Andrew P. Napolitano, a former judge of the Superior Court of New Jersey, is the senior judicial analyst at Fox News Channel.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 12:02:22 PM
One question.

What presidential candidate does not lie?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2015, 12:29:16 PM
One question.

What presidential candidate does not lie?

If it is only a matter of degree, then let's study the different degrees.

If you tell a small lie to one person in order to save a hundred lives, maybe that it is one on a scale of 0-100.  A justifiable lie.

The Susan Rice episode, going out on all shows and all networks to give a known false explanation of events that involved live and death, 4 times over, was done intentionally,  to draw the false understanding with the viewers in the hundreds of millions, was done strictly for partisan political gain -  that would be a 100, full scale, world class, pathological lie.  Rice was the mouthpiece, but Obama and Clinton were the ones who knew it was false, and proved by their own statements and actions they were complicit in the whole deception.

How many other politicians are THAT BAD?  None that we would ever knowingly put up with.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 12:43:56 PM
If I were the other side, I would argue Bush, Cheney and others on WMD in Iraq.  (Yes, I do know all the arguments.)

However, there are reports, reliability unknown, that Bush and Cheney were plotting on taking Saddam out prior to being elected. If this is so and the WMD was simply an excuse, then this would certainly go above and beyond Hillary. (Can't believe that I am writing that?)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2015, 12:58:12 PM
WMD in Iraq as an 'excuse' to go to a war that killed thousands of Americans would be the biggest lie IF not for the fact that all the best intelligence agencies in the world at the time said yes, Saddam had WMD, making it not a lie.   In fact it was the ones knowingly false accusing that as a lie who where telling the biggest lie.  IMHO.  They knew better.  Read Hillary's explanation of her vote.  Read the 23 reasons written in the Authorization:  https://www.congress.gov/bill/107th-congress/house-joint-resolution/114/text

Of course reasonable and humane people wanted Saddam, tyrant of millions, deposed.  I hope we all did.  Read the case he was hanged for ( du Jaille sp?).  Hanged once was not enough punishment for him.  Used WMD on his own people.  Attacked 4 neighbors.  State sponsor of terrorism.
Title: Iraq and WMD...
Post by: objectivist1 on November 09, 2015, 01:03:40 PM
ppulatie is accepting the Left's false premise that the primary reason the Bush administration decided to go into Iraq was that they were presumed to have had WMD.  By the way - it has now been established that they DID IN FACT have WMD - as demonstrated by the stockpiles of chemical weapons later uncovered.

That aside - the PRIMARY reason we went into Iraq is that Saddam Hussein had defied multiple U.N. resolutions mandating inspections.  The Bush administration decided this could not be tolerated any longer.  I suggest you read David Horowitz's superb book "Party of Defeat," which sets the record straight in excruciating, precise detail.  The Left has re-written history regarding the reasons for going to war in Iraq with the willing participation of the establishment media and the Democrat Party.

There simply is no parallel whatsoever with Hillary Clinton's career-long record of virtually non-stop lies going back at least as far as the Watergate committee, where she was fired by a Democrat, who explicitly stated that she was dishonest and had deliberately tampered with evidence.  This was the reason for her termination.  But once again - the establishment media - a virtually fully-owned subsidiary of the Democrat Party, has chosen to downplay and/or not report this and any of countless other instances of dishonesty by Mrs. Clinton and her husband.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 02:04:03 PM
Objectivist1,

I did not say I was accepting it, I said that if I  were on the other side, here is what I would argue. A bit difference...........and I like to point such things out from the opposite perspective.

Yes, WMD has been found, but was it in the amounts represented to exist? And how much was shipped out to Syria? The info has not been disclosed by anyone. Why not?

As to the reports that Bush and Cheney had been considering going to war with Iraq prior to the election, does one just dismiss that, or does one check it out. I remember in all to vivid detail what was going on in the UN, with Inspections and everything else. But do I just accept the Horowitz book and believe that there might be other unstated reasons for acting in Iraq? Personally, I would like to know more about whether Bush/Cheney did plan to go in prior to the election, if it did so occur. If so, it would have to change my perspective even more on Bush.

Yes, I am well aware of Hillary's lies, and that the media will not report it. But what if the same exists on the GOP side?

In an email I sent to Doug, I tried to describe where I was coming from. It might be time to post it here. Here is the relevant part:

"To give you an idea of the way I think, for the past 8 years I have had to look at every piece of paper, document, legal filing, etc with a critical eye. Nothing is sacrosanct. And when I look at this stuff, I am evaluating things on the basis of “intent, wording, actual processes, time line, and motivation”. I accept nothing as written or said, but look to see the other motivations, etc that might exist."

I do the same with the political and economic arenas. I trust what no one says any longer in either arena. The simple fact is that all are misrepresenting things,  manipulating statistical analysis and trying to claim that everything is right in this country. Each side does it and will continue to do it.

Frankly, each side has the US pointed in the same direction. The only difference is how long it takes to get to the next point. Unfortunately, not a damned one of them has any clue of how to get there, even if the goal is good. Anything that they do will further screw things up. '

All I  know is that the next crisis is going to be much worse that the last, and it will fundamentally remake this country, but who knows how?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 02:09:13 PM
Here is the latest out in South Carolina from PPP.  Carson is neck and neck with Trump and leading by 1 point. Carson has almost doubled in strength since last August.  BTW, the owner of PPP is a democrat supporter.

But what did I find of interest? 65% of all the people polled were evangelicals.  How absurd is that? Of course Carson is going to surge.  See why I don't believe crap anymore?



(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/patrick-murray-3.jpg?w=640)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on November 09, 2015, 02:59:31 PM
ppulatie,

One cannot compare documented evidence with "what IF the other side does this too?" and then say that there is equivalence.  There is a HUGE difference between documented evidence of lying and criminal activity, and rumor and innuendo without any proof.  The former generally applies to Hillary Clinton and her husband, Barack Obama, Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, Valerie Jarrett, Lois Lerner, et. al.  Accusations without evidence form the bulk of the "argument" the Democrats present against going to war in Iraq.  Yes - there is corruption in both parties - but it cannot be said that it is unknowable which side is more credible in a particular circumstance.  Horowitz's book presents mountains of documented evidence.  One needn't "take his word" for anything.  Show me the evidence that Bush and Cheney were plotting to go to war with Iraq before 9-11, and I will take that assertion seriously.  Certainly the liberal press would love to prove this.  Yet they haven't been able to.  Yet we have mountains of evidence of Bill and Hillary's wrongdoings.  Show me the equivalence.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 03:09:20 PM
Absence of proof does not mean innocence. Just like absence of a body does or does not mean a person is dead or murdered.

I deal with this type of stuff every day. Just because the proof is currently not available does not mean that it does not exist. It has simply not yet been uncovered. Just take Nixon and the tapes.............
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on November 09, 2015, 04:24:29 PM
No sh*t Sherlock.  That's not what I'm arguing and you know it.  A wise man considers the evidence before believing a claim.  You can't PROVE I didn't fly to Mars yesterday and have sex with an alien, so that claim deserves equal weight to the evidence that Hillary lied under oath, I suppose???  Let's not play childish games here on a serious forum.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2015, 04:40:20 PM
I am being serious and not playing games. I don't believe that Bush and Cheney had plans prior to the election for invading Iraq, but to just dismiss the claims outright is the same thing that Dems do every day with Pubbies, making the Pubbies angry.

Maybe you just have more trust in various government agencies and politicians that I have. Personally, I have no trust in any of them, Dems or Pubs. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, GOP Debate No. 4 Tonight
Post by: DougMacG on November 10, 2015, 08:43:10 AM
Again, on a channel that I don't get.  Whatever happened to using free TV.  I criticized Obama for having a press conference with corporate sponsors, now the GOP does it with debates.

On the agenda other than pressing economic issues, is Carson a pathological liar, Trump a comic villain?  Will pro-life Bush attack pro-life Rubio for being too pro-life to get elected.  And now a word or two from our sponsors.  

Will Carson score a point on Trump for jumping on the attack bandwagon before getting the facts?  Will he do the same in war policy as President?

Will someone get Bush to explain why his focus is on his known friend when Trump and Carson have 2-3 times the support?

Will they attack each other over the details of their similar tax plans or will they join together in condemning the damage that the current tax code is doing to our country?

Will Trump demagogue TPP or give a plan of how he would get 20 nations to sit down again in 18 months and get it right, and what that would entail.  Will anyone acknowledge that it will take at least a month full time to even know the implications of the terms of the agreement?
Title: Re: Tonight's Debate...
Post by: objectivist1 on November 10, 2015, 09:02:52 AM
Doug:

If you have Internet access, you can go to the Fox Business Network site, and watch the debate live online.  Also - many local Fox affiliates are carrying the debate on their channel tonight.
Title: Re: Tonight's Debate...
Post by: DougMacG on November 10, 2015, 11:12:21 AM
Doug:
If you have Internet access, you can go to the Fox Business Network site, and watch the debate live online.  Also - many local Fox affiliates are carrying the debate on their channel tonight.

Thanks. My internet will be too slow for streaming and our local Fox has Judge Judy and Scream Queen to play.  I will follow it on radio and others can tell me how they looked.  Fox and the RNC would rather have maximum revenues than maximum viewership.  If you are watching a Republican debate on Fox Business Channel, Channel 778 on the local tuner, you were probably already planning to vote Republican.  Not much of a reachout.  I wonder how many inner city blacks, how many Hispanic Trump hotel workers, how many white kids attending liberal colleges will see it.  Probably close to none, none, and none..
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential Tonight's Debate continued
Post by: DougMacG on November 10, 2015, 12:37:37 PM
Both Carson and Rubio can easily predict the attacks that will be made on them by the questioners and the opponents.  Because of that, look for them to be ready with a response.  That is what Bush got wrong last time.  He opened the door for Rubio with a lame and predictable charge and got back what he had coming.

I would look for Trump to go after Carson on policy and leadership skills, but to back off of the character charges floating around.  I could be dead wrong on that.

The Cruz moment of the last debate was where he took his own time away from an answer to recap and attack the quality of the  questions.  He showed courage, but also showed off his superb ability to accurately track and recount all that had just occurred.  You can't rehears that.  From Cruz' perspective, he hopes to be handed a similar opening.

If Rubio is rated the best prepared and best communicator of this group for the 4th straight time, this could finally be his big breakout.  He also could be stung by the attacks if his rebuttals are not persuasive.  We have not yet seen that happen.

I am looking for Trump or Carson to make a perceived mistake on policy, knowledge or delivery.  It is quite unusual for anyone at all much less an inexperienced frontrunner to go through ths entire campaigns without a major gaffe.  I don't wish it anyone but we are due.

Mentioned earlier, I would like to see who takes the argument best to the real opposing view, Obama-Clinton, rather than to see how well they attack and respond to each other.  I look to see Rubio rise above the fray and do that, but that challenge is open to all.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 10, 2015, 04:10:30 PM
Santorum in the debate Tax Proposal

Flat Tax

20% on Corporations
20% on People

What the hell?  Doesn't he understand that the 20% on corporations will be passed on to the consumer?  But I guess that this is happening anyway now, so it makes no difference.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 10, 2015, 05:19:36 PM
Santorum in the debate Tax Proposal

Flat Tax

20% on Corporations
20% on People

What the hell?  Doesn't he understand that the 20% on corporations will be passed on to the consumer?  But I guess that this is happening anyway now, so it makes no difference.

That's a way better plan than what we have now.

That said, it sounds like he doesn't plan to win the nomination.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 10, 2015, 05:40:15 PM
Grew bored with the kiddie debate.  Decided to work on a potential lawsuit against lenders.  Shows how boring it was....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 10, 2015, 07:59:35 PM
Actually I thought the JV debate was quite good, with Christie really showing well.  Having only four candidates allowed for much more time and substance in the answers.

Halfway through the main event right now, taking a breather.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, GOP Nov 10 debate
Post by: DougMacG on November 11, 2015, 07:54:13 AM
It seems like the final stretch, yet it is a year until the election and more than a year left of Obama.

I watched the whole main debate and heard a few clips of the early one.   Hard to recap, most of it went according to expectations, each hitting what their supporters wanted to hear.  Observers I have read basically say this won't cause any re-shuffling.

Trump didn't have a great night but came across very strong on his strong issue, immigration/deportation.  Won't go up but won't go down either at least based on just this.  He acts more Presidential over time, observers called it a pivot.  But still he couldn't help himself from taking a couple of elementary school plyaground cheap shots at candidates who most likely pose no threat to him, Kasich and Fiorina.  One thing a good debater needs to learn is to let your own answer already delivered stand on its own two feet, not needing to keep repeating it and attacking those who see it differently.

I thought Carson was a little weak at times and largely out of the fray, but he hit his own home runs, thanking the questioner for not asking him what he said in 10th grade and turning policy matters back to the core principles that made this country great.

Rubio was strong for the 4th time in a row and he managed to stay out of the fray on his biggest vulnerability, the immigration argument.  Rubio was among the strongest on foreign policy / commander in chief questions and in articulating how big government favors big business and big banks over everyone else.

Cruz did fine, had his own great moments.  He was first to back up Trump on deportation and rule of law against the compassion arguments of Bush and Kasich, and one of the best to explain why American leadership is necessary around the world in response to Rand Paul.  Still I don't see Trump voters flocking to Cruz if Trump gets out or see any reason why Trump would get out.

Fiorina had great moments.  I don't see her winning but having her in 5th or 6th place proves this is still a very strong field.  She would make a fine President, a thousand times better than the Dem alternative.

Bush did a couple of things right but probably doesn't move up either.  He rose up to just short of the level where he should have been 3 debates ago.  Wisely he changed his strategy from attacking his friends to pivoting on each answer to draw the contrast with Hillary.  He stumbled slightly a couple of times, looked a little uncomfortable, and didn't budge at all on illegal immigration.  Ironically though, the comparison with Hillary reminds us that we don't want a candidate that causes our own side to stay home and lose to her.

Kasich was mostly annoying but had a moment where he took us around the world and commented in lightning round fashion on all the key spots.  Again, I don't like this guy but Democrats would kill to get a candidate in 8th place with his background and readiness.  Like Bush, he had no answer to Trump on how we are a nation if we don't have borders or a basic rule of law.

I also find Rand Paul annoying.  He made his main point very clearly and repeatedly, that you aren't a (fiscal) conservative if you favor unlimited defense spending.  But then he has no answer to the charge that the world goes to hell without American leadership, instead he just repeats the hollow point he already made.  He is the perfect candidate for the 2-3% of Republicans who agree with him.  If he wanted to broaden his appeal, he would lead with the areas of agreement, smaller government at home and greater individual liberties.  

Christy seemed to win the early debate.  He is the only one who could move up.  He is strong and still young, I wonder if his turn is later...   Jindal put too much emphasis on attacking Republicans.  Too bad Santorum doesn't have more appeal, he is pretty close to right on the big issues, fiscal conservative, tough on immigration and national security, etc.  Everybody needs to play a role; his isn't going to be serving as President.  He should have been a Senator from a red state where he could have been reelected and made more of an impact.  As with my complaint with others, he speaks conservatism well but doesn't lead more people over to our side.  Lindsey Graham is also not going to be Republican nominee or President.
------------------------------------

What should come out of this?  No serious re-shuffling, but if there is no re-shuffling and no more debates for a long time, some should reconsider their chances and get out.  I can't say who should get out without throwing my own bias into it, but here goes...  The top 4 should stay in, Carson, Trump, Rubio and Cruz.  Carly, maybe yes too.  For Rand Paul, Kasich and Bush, they should consider this a win of sorts and go out on top.  )   I don't expect Kasich to get out, he can wait and see if he inherits Bush's support.  Two problems with that, there isn't any and we don't know that Bush will get out.

And for Jeb Bush.  His candidacy only makes sense as a frontrunner.  If he was far and away the strongest Republican, the question would remain - do we really want to nominate another Bush?  As a 5th or 6th place guy, still learning how to campaign and debate in his 60s, when his last contested primary was 22 years ago, he is not exactly young and exciting and has decided to carry the full baggage of his father and brother.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 11, 2015, 09:02:45 AM
I would like to begin by saying I thought it was a very well thought out and very well run debate. The questions were excellent and everyone got a fair amount of time. The overall level of the candidates was quite good, even the under card. The longer time allotted for answers enabled more substantive discussion and most of the candidates stepped up their respective games.

Some snap impressions:

Under Card:

While Santorum made the best of his weak hand, I thought Christie showed very well here and showed some grit as a man in how he dealt with the fact of being there. Maybe he will return to the main stage?

Main Event in no particular order:

Kasich: The man has a very strong resume (serious work on serious committees as a long time Congressman and as governor of Ohio) and seems very angry that the voters are interested in non-politicians. On a human level I can understand that, but on a number of issues he misses the mark for me. With regard to the back and forth Cruz and he had over whether to bail out a large failing bank, I confess to being baffled at the idea that depositors might be wiped out. What about the FDIC? (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) Isn't if for exactly this sort of situation? Anyway, I think he comes out of the night worse for the wear.

Bush: Did much better than previously, and scored well against Trump with the need for America to be the Leader and not the Policeman. Did well in describing how Dodd-Frank favors the big banks over community banks, but then got too far into the weeds (along with Kasich) I think with the capital requirement thing, though perhaps the point was to show his depth. His plain statement in favor of Amnesty will remind the great majority of Rep voters who oppose this of just how much he means it. Scored well against Trump on Trump's "Fine with me to have Putin in Syria" strategy. Still, I think it was not enough to change his rankings or flat trajectory-- and his closing statement was very weak.  Doug's assessment that his candidacy only makes sense if he is a front runner (who can win) seems dead on to me.

Fiorina: Once again, impresses, I particularly liked her point about how the government created the bubble and when it burst created the "solutions" that it now creates the problems it will "solve" with even more government and how this is the road to socialism. She through a really nice elbow at the Donald after he did a name drop thing about getting along with Putin when they both appeared on "60 Minutes" when she commented that she too had met with Putin but that it had not been in the waiting room for a TV show. Not sure why, but my intuition is that despite another strong showing she will not get a big bump in the polls. She remains positioned well for VP however.

Rand Paul: A very good night for him, he seems to have found his mojo. A major bitch slap scored against Trump when in response to a question about the TPP Trump blathered on about China and it's currency manipulations Rand interjected to point out that China was not a signatory to the TPP. Though Rubio answered well, he engaged strongly with Rubio on Rubio's family credit in his tax proposal and spending increases. Although I don't see him as becoming a major contender, I feel he added to the night and very much hope he is reelected in Kentucky-- and given how much noise he made about coal it would appear that this is on his mind wink emoticon

Cruz: A very good night for Ted. I have always had great respect for Ted. His legal career is simply extraordinary. His grasp and love for our Constitution is superb. He has shown political courage. That said I have worried about the narrowness of his life experience and his political skills in reaching those less intelligent than him (i.e. most people) but he continues to move up in my estimation in these things e.g. his tax plan and his ability to describe it as benefiting real people.

Rubio: As usual displayed tremendous ability to handle questions on his own terms, tremendous preparation on a wide range of issues especially foreign affairs, and superb speaking skills. As other candidates drop out I can see him picking up a lot of their supporters.  

Carson: Of course everyone was curious to see how he would handle the inevitable question about the challenges to the credibility of his life story and I thought he came through with flying colors. Turning to the merits I confess to being pleasantly surprised at the depth and specificity of his answer to a "what to do in the Middle East?" question. Though he does not push for the spotlight as the others do, he turned in a fine night. Superb closing statement. In the spin zone after he continued to invite deep substantive questions on all issues; it would not surprise me if he surprises with quality answers when those questions come.

Trump: Though his numbers may remain where they are, IMHO this was not a good night for the Donald. No more domineering the stage and the moderators for him as the substance level goes up! He statements that previously seemed bold now seem lacking and his insults (to Kaisch and Fiorina last night) small and petty instead of witty. IMHO Trump has peaked. He has the support he is going to get and will not go up from here. He has served the process well by breaking the mold by taking on the PC police and the media but my prediction is that as various candidates drop out, their supporters will not go to him but instead to other of the remaining candidates.

Overall I came away from the night encouraged by the depth of the Rep bench. The contrast with the Dem bench is glaring. Name me 12 Democrats you could put to a crucible like last night. Regardless who gets the nomination, should the Reps win a lot of these people would make for an absolutely extraordinary cabinet. Should the Reps hold both houses of the Congress, amazing things could get done and maybe, just maybe, America can turn things around.

The three that have most of my attention in this moment are Carson, Rubio, and Cruz.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 11, 2015, 10:33:54 AM
Picking a couple of things out of Crafty's excellent post:

"I confess to being baffled at the idea that depositors might be wiped out. What about the FDIC? (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) Isn't if for exactly this sort of situation?"

   - Exactly my thought.  The depositor gets bailed out for exactly the limit of the FDIC insurance.  That is a different question from rescuing the institution, which is wrong.  That's how they got too big to fail!  The Fox Business commentators thought Bush and Kasich looked like idiots on this, and they both work for big banks.

Crafty again:  "Fiorina: Once again, impresses, I particularly liked her point about how the government created the bubble and when it burst created the "solutions" that it now creates the problems it will "solve" with even more government and how this is the road to socialism."

   - I just wanted to repeat that!  Almost all of what we are arguing are government 'solutions' for government-caused problems - and we never hear that.   It is quite a good sign that she gets that.

Crafty excerpt on Carson:  "Superb closing statement"

   - That was one of many times that he completed his answer without talking over the bell, unlike others.  It reflects and internal confidence to not have to repeat endlessly, make canned points or shout others down.

Comments missed in my first post: 

Cruz made a nice dig at "sugar subsidies" - without naming Rubio.  He made the point gracefully and substantively without making it unnecessarily personal and by doing it that way took away Rubio's opportunity and obligation to respond.

Lastly, doesn't Bush have a lot of other cool things he could be doing.   )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 11, 2015, 11:38:10 AM
Time for my thoughts after watching the Big Dogs play:

The debate format and moderators set the standard hopefully for future debates. This was not “gotcha” questions, but actually went to real issues.

Kasich:
 
His comments on the Bail Out obfuscated the issue at the very least. FDIC insurance covers any single account up to $250k in the event of a bank failure. Depositors can change the names on the account in various ways that will provide for each account having $250k of insurance. So this is a non-issue.
Kasich also talked about increasing the capital requirements held by banks so that depositors would not be wiped out in the event of a failure.  This is a technical issue covered by BASEL 3. The requirements have already been increased from 3.5% to a range of from 8% to 12.5%. Is this enough? Probably not, but this increase is designed to protect banks from runs, and with the Fed as lender of last resort, probably be enough to stop failures caused by runs.

Let the banks fail? The plans are now in place to deal with failures, so to hell with bailouts unless the entire financial system will collapse. And if that is the case, bailouts won’t help anyway. Kasich had to avoid this part since it would cost him financial entities campaign contributions.

Kasich came off okay in the early going, but got very annoying as time went on. He needed a breakout moment, but that did not come. He should have no movement up in the polls.

Maybe he is playing for VP.

Bush:
Better performance than before, but still lackluster. He hurt himself on amnesty for sure. And his statements on bank bailouts was too wonkish as well. His comments on Syria may have to be walked back. Putin has apparently been bombing the hell out of ISIS positions in the last 72 hours. Over 448 sorties.
Did not help to stop the bleeding of support overall. He might get a short boost, but it will quickly disappear. (More on this in next post.)

Fiorina:

Did well and may pick up of bit of support, but she was constantly jumping in. Her comments on Syria and the No Fly Zone and further military action scare the hell out of me. Her posturing would mean a return to the Cold War.

Also with Fiorina, when she talks and I watch, I cannot get her head and body movements and  facial expressions out of my mind. They are very distracting and IMO seem to lessen her arguments and appealability. Each time, it is like being lectured to by an ex-wife.


Paul:

Seemed impressive until his views are considered. The question on military spending was way off as mention by Doug and CD. But he misrepresented TPP and Trump. Trump said that China had a backdoor into TPP whenever they wanted it, and this is true. In fact, this is evidenced by Kerry just offering China to joint TPP.

He should drop out and go back to Kentucky.


Cruz:

A very good night for him. He may pick up a bit of support from Carson people, but not much elsewhere. If Trump drops out, he might get some support. The problem is that he cannot win in the general election. Tea Party associations will destroy crossover appeal. And he probably cannot beat Rubio at the convention.



Rubio:
Good performance, but showed again his true colors on Immigration. He is the new GOPe candidate if Bush crashes. (More on this in next post.)

Carson:

Did good to stop the questions on the 10th grade. This will help him, but has damage already been done? Still, TPP, Immigration and other issues will continue to haunt him. Syria? Contrast that with his comments after 9-11 and Afghanistan. He may temporary pick up some support, but should drop to previous levels.


Trump:

Did what he had to do………….not harm himself. The comment about Snarly interrupting will be viewed solely in the mind of where the person stands with regard to Trump and Snarly. It won’t have any affect except in the media’s mind.

TPP, he is against as is only a couple of other candidates. As the details become know, it might help him, but it is still a wonkish issue.

Immigration is still the biggest issue in the campaign. Watch to Europe and as things worsen there, it will only help Trump.

It appears that the goal of the moderators and GOPe is to keep Trump out of the spotlight since it only appears to help him. That is why he is being “ignored” in the debates for all intent and purposes.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 11, 2015, 12:19:18 PM
"Cruz made a nice dig at "sugar subsidies" - without naming Rubio.  He made the point gracefully and substantively without making it unnecessarily personal and by doing it that way took away Rubio's opportunity and obligation to respond."

I too noticed this , , , and forgot to mention it in my commentary above.  Very shrew play by Cruz, including not mentioning Rubio by name.  It seems quite likely we will be hearing more about this  :wink:  Also, his one liner about illegals with journalism degrees was devastating IMHO.

"Lastly, doesn't Bush have a lot of other cool things he could be doing.   )"

 :lol:

"Trump said that China had a backdoor into TPP whenever they wanted it, and this is true. In fact, this is evidenced by Kerry just offering China to joint TPP."

I missed this.  Someone please flesh this out on the TPP thread.

"Also with Fiorina, when she talks and I watch, I cannot get her head and body movements and  facial expressions out of my mind. They are very distracting and IMO seem to lessen her arguments and appealability. Each time, it is like being lectured to by an ex-wife."

 :lol:  I think you may have nailed it.  :lol:  OTOH major kudos to Carly for her repeated attacks on baseline budgeting!!!  8-) 8-) 8-)

"TPP, he is against as is only a couple of other candidates. As the details become know, it might help him, but it is still a wonkish issue. Immigration is still the biggest issue in the campaign. Watch to Europe and as things worsen there, it will only help Trump."

Good points.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 11, 2015, 12:49:20 PM
Okay, now from the Primary/Nomination view.......

For the first four primaries, this debate and others will have no effect at all on the outcome towards nomination. None of the candidates will have 50 plus one to win the state under Rule 40. So it is all about just winning delegates that are to be split.

The next few primaries in Feb sill also have little substance towards the nomination other than delegates. That is because there will still be at least 6 candidates in the running, Carson, Trump, Rubio, Jeb, Cruz and Fiorina which all serve to split the vote and will prevent anyone winning a majority of votes.

Once March 15 hits, the goal will be to either eliminate Trump, but if not possible, keep the others in the race to split the vote and deny the nomination to Trump using Rule 40. This allows for the GOPe to go into the  convention and "back room" pick the nominee.

So the debates really mean nothing at this stage, other than keeping many candidates in the race to blunt Trump  Force in the first four primaries. And unless Trump steps on his crank, no harm can really come to him.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 09:00:11 AM
Did RNC pack debate audience with Rubio supporters?

http://dcwhispers.com/say-it-aint-so-marco-gop-stuffed-debate-hall-with-pro-rubio-supporters/ (http://dcwhispers.com/say-it-aint-so-marco-gop-stuffed-debate-hall-with-pro-rubio-supporters/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 09:04:11 AM
Trump and Cruz tied in Texas. Is Cruz piking up Carson supporters?  (This is the first poll of Texas by this firm since Jun.)


http://www.texastribune.org/2015/11/12/uttt-poll-cruz-trump-tied-clinton-well-ahead/ (http://www.texastribune.org/2015/11/12/uttt-poll-cruz-trump-tied-clinton-well-ahead/)

(http://static.texastribune.org/media/images/2015/11/11/UT-TT-Polls-102714C_jpeg_312x1000_q100.jpeg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 12, 2015, 10:18:17 AM
Did RNC pack debate audience with Rubio supporters?

http://dcwhispers.com/say-it-aint-so-marco-gop-stuffed-debate-hall-with-pro-rubio-supporters/ (http://dcwhispers.com/say-it-aint-so-marco-gop-stuffed-debate-hall-with-pro-rubio-supporters/)

No mention that Scott Walker (or Reince Priebus or hardly anyone else) has endorsed Rubio yet.

It seemed to me the crowd went wild for a number of things not related to Rubio.  They booed Trump a couple times when he reverted to old, immature ways.  That is helpful feedback for him IMO and insulates the party from endorsing the playground insults.  Overall the crowd seemed polite, attentive and well-behaved.  Kudos to the organizers.  )

It should be no surprise that outsiders don't have as much influence on the inside.  Isn't that the point of being an outsider?  On the other side of it, isn't it the point of doing thankless political work (in Wisconsin or anywhere) should come with some perks like being able to attend big events like this?

In our area in recent years it was the Ron Paul people who tried to disproportionately take leadership in the party, but only to advance their candidate not to advance the interests of the party.  Many Trump supporters like yourself (pp) make clear their interest to support only one candidate, not the eventual nominee if he loses or the down ticket work.

Next up on the site:  http://dcwhispers.com/marco-rubio-hates-little-white-kids/
Title: Morris on Reagan Democrats (Cruz was effective)
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 12, 2015, 10:30:36 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/the-key-to-2016-reagan-democrats-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 10:58:26 AM
Doug,

How can you advance the interests of the Party, when the party only cares about itself and just continuing to serve corporate interests only?  The GOPe regularly dismisses what their supporters want, and then do what benefits themselves financially?  Think Boehner and McConnell................

Also, think how the RNC has come out and stated that those who support Trump are no longer welcome in the Party unless they conform to RNC wishes. Does this sound like a Party interested in considering all sides and that people could work within to improve?  Think what the GOPe did in 1976 and 1980, going against Reagan and wanting Bush. Here we have the same again, except Trump is now Reagan, and we still have a Bush.

Work within the party to support an eventual nominee who will once again lose to the Dems? Work with a nominee who could just as easily be a member of the other party?

The GOP is in a fight for the soul of the Party. This fight has been ongoing since 1960 at the very least. It pits moderate republicans against conservative republicans.

Why do you think more and more people are leaving the GOP party and going Independent? They are fed up with the Party. But that does not concern the GOPe for one reason....it makes its favored candidate easier to get on the ballot because it reduces opposition to their goals. And, they know that generally those Independents will vote for the GOP in the end, so what does it matter?

After the Primary in CA, I am re-registering as an Independent. I am through with the Party. I will "waste" my vote on a candidate who says what I believe in from now on, over someone just pretending to believe in the things I want. To hell with the GOP.

Title: WSJ: See you in Cleveland
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 12, 2015, 11:23:07 AM
GOP Voters: See You in Cleveland
​None of the candidates is likely to win a majority of primary delegates.​
By Daniel Henninger
Nov. 11, 2015 6:54 p.m. ET
490 COMMENTS

Dive into the political Web and somewhere you’ll find this now-unavoidable headline: 10 Things We Learned From the GOP Debate. Let’s keep it simple. What we learned at the debate in Milwaukee was one thing: This campaign won’t end until it gets to Cleveland.

None of these candidates looks likely to pull away and capture the majority of primary delegates before the party’s nominating convention in Cleveland next July.

After Tuesday’s debate, the fourth evening we’ve all spent with these people, it’s hard for me to see why a round of brokering in Cleveland isn’t the most likely outcome.

This is the most volatile presidential nominating race in memory. Opinion polls, with all their statistical limitations, are playing a dominant role determining who stays on Debate Island and who gets thrown off.
After the GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee, Nov. 10. ENLARGE
After the GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee, Nov. 10. Photo: joshua lott/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Buried in this polling, however, is the reality that these preferences aren’t much more than sentiments. Most voters admit they haven’t picked a horse. Tuesday’s debate showed why.

In the third debate, on Oct. 28, after strong performances by Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, conventional tea-leaf reading said they would rise as Donald Trump and Ben Carson inevitably faded.

Ben Carson just spent a week passing through an intense crucible over his biographical credibility. After Tuesday evening’s good performance, I’d say Ben Carson isn’t going to fade.

As to Donald Trump, well, we’re close to the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, and every year you simply marvel at how those fabulous balloons stay afloat.

On Tuesday, Mr. Trump, wending his way through the minimum wage issue, said: “Wages are too high.” He survived saying John McCain isn’t a war hero and George W. Bush didn’t keep us safe on 9/11. But this?

Mr. Trump’s blue-collar base is entering its eighth year of Barack Obama’s low-wage economy. If saying wages are too high doesn’t sink him, then he isn’t going to fade from the primaries.

Still, that crack just gave Hillary Clinton’s campaign its Mitt Romney Moment. They would plaster the billionaire’s “wages are too high” across every TV market in the Midwest’s battleground states.

These debates are largely presentation exercises, and Donald Trump survives because his presentation skills are astonishing. Last Friday evening on “The O’Reilly Factor,” Mr. Trump blew right through every direct question Bill O’Reilly asked him. It’s an amazing performance, when he isn’t bellowing.

Jeb Bush, meanwhile, is obviously prone to brain cramps. The people of Washington, Iowa, likely will forgive him for clutching on why they aren’t like Washington, D.C. John Kasich’s remark about what Jeb was “trying to say” about bank capital requirements was nasty if irresistible.

But Mr. Bush did what everyone knew he had to. He kept himself on the field with strong comments on the Obama regulatory blizzard, energy policy and especially his own mockery of Hillary’s “A” grade for the wheezing Obama economy.

Mr. Bush needs to finish no worse than fourth in Iowa’s February caucuses and notch a win or second in New Hampshire. If he survives those tests, the Bush money and campaign machinery will make him competitive through South Carolina and Super Tuesday.

But “competitive” is his minimum baseline now, not last June’s “front-runner.” Mr. Bush looks like a Kentucky Derby favorite running deep in the pack along the rail on the backstretch. His fade tightened the odds for everyone else in the race.

Maybe it’s unfair that the debates have such an outsize role in sorting candidates for the U.S. presidency, but the presentation exercises are useful and revelatory.

Take Ted Cruz. His strategy is to collect “outsider” support if the Carson or Trump campaigns falter. It’s a plausible gambit. But . . .

On one hand, Mr. Cruz Tuesday gave a handsome summary of how to achieve higher growth through Reaganomics: low taxes, deregulation and sound monetary policy. He’s impressive on these important but complex subjects.

But his top pander line—“If Republicans join Democrats as the party of amnesty, we will lose”—fell flat with the Milwaukee audience. Set aside the substance of this issue. The problem is that it was so patently opportunistic. It’s a Cruz quirk and liability. At the margin, it could suppress his vote in big-state primaries, such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—battleground states in the general election.

Marco Rubio swings from home-run rhetoric (the minimum wage will “make people more expensive than a machine”) to trite plug-and-play speeches. Did you know his father was a bartender?

Carly Fiorina often starts strong, then talks past any point of interest. Rand Paul demolished Marco Rubio’s family tax credit as a trillion-dollar outlay, then left his chin hanging on national security. Mr. Rubio ducked the tax credit and flattened him.

Undercard king Chris Christie is now the contest’s legitimate dark horse. If he talks personally to every GOP voter in New Hampshire, he may win there. But he’s sooo far back everywhere else.

Get used to hearing “no clear winner” and “no clear front-runner.” Until Cleveland. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 11:53:21 AM
" round of brokering in Cleveland isn’t the most likely outcome"

Yep, true............
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 12, 2015, 12:00:25 PM
Doug,

How can you advance the interests of the Party, when the party only cares about itself and just continuing to serve corporate interests only?  The GOPe regularly dismisses what their supporters want, and then do what benefits themselves financially?  Think Boehner and McConnell................
...

I'm not saying that view isn't valid. (My congressman called me for my endorsement when he first ran.  Now he won't return my calls or respond to my emails, positioning himself as a centrist and knows that he is pisses off conservatives every time he funds liberalism.)   I'm just saying that's not how you get the seats on the inside, when now you want a say in the debates, the primary rules, timing, etc.

NH has independents in the primary, but for the most part these are Republican primaries heading to a Republican convention.  You (Trump, Carson, etc.) can't blow off party work and then wonder why you're not fully represented on the inside.

Just before my mom passed away, we attended a political function featuring her good friend Phyllis Schlafley, a VERY conservative woman, also age 90, who among other things wrote the Goldwater book, "A Choice, Not an Echo", also led the fight to defeat the 'equal rights amendment' which slowed down today's liberalism by a couple of decades.  Certainly the betrayal of RINOs was among her biggest concerns, but one of her central points in closing was that this is a two party system, a two party country.  Conservatives are always fed up and tempted to go their own way, but you make a difference by winning IN the party and by winning in the elections.  Boehner and McConnell have/had power because we don't win enough primaries and elections.  

Still, the activists in the party tend to be more conservative, not less conservative, than the party voters and the country at large.  That the insiders favor Rubio (allegedly) does not mean they are Chamber of Commerce liberals.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 12:14:19 PM
I guess that you see a much greater difference in the two parties than I do.  There may be significant differences on Gun Control but not much else.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 12, 2015, 05:35:46 PM
I guess that you see a much greater difference in the two parties than I do.  There may be significant differences on Gun Control but not much else.

Distracted by the problems on our side, I think you are in denial of exactly where the Democrat party is today.
Maybe others can help fill in the details here, let's get this list of questions right.

Do you believe government should set your pay, your benefits, your hours, and all your work rules?
Do you think government should own or control all businesses?
Do you think Derek Jeeter's batboy should make the same income as Derek Jeeter (or same analogy for some other great performer) and the same as some guy too drunk or high to work at all?
Are you ready for world government to replace all cities, counties, states, countries and private decision making?
Should (world government) decide how much water you can use, how much energy, what kind of energy you can use?
Would you like government to decide for you what you eat, when you eat, how much you can eat?  How about what you drink?
Would you like them to decide for you what you can drive, when you can drive, how far you can drive?
Would you like them to decide for you where you can live, how big your house can be, what it is made out of, and have routine inspections?
Would you like them to decide for you that you cannot fly, while they jet unlimited distances to advance their control over you?
Would you like them to decide when you can speak, where you can speak and what you can say?
Are you ready to have all of us register and then surrender our weapons?  (I think you already conceded this point.)
Do you think they should be able to take your home on a whim?  (Okay, skip that one.)
Do you think an Iran-Palestine alliance should rule the world and Israel should be destroyed?
Do you believe constitutional limits on power should be waived when it is for a good liberal cause?
Do you fear freedom more than you despise tyranny?
If so, you may be a Democrat.
Do you think I exaggerate?
Do you think someone like Rubio or Carson or Ryan, Priebus, Gigot, Boehner or McConnell are the same as today's Dem on these points?
I don't.
Let me know if you found this helpful.   )

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 12, 2015, 05:38:04 PM
The majority in this country would say yes, as long as they still get the free shiznit.


I guess that you see a much greater difference in the two parties than I do.  There may be significant differences on Gun Control but not much else.

Distracted by the problems on our side, I think you are in denial of exactly where the Democrat party is today.
Maybe others can help fill in the details here, let's get this list of questions right.

Do you believe government should set your pay, your benefits, your hours, and all your work rules?
Do you think government should own or control all businesses?
Do you think Derek Jeeter's batboy should make the same income as Derek Jeeter (or same analogy for some other great performer) and the same as some guy too drunk or high to work at all?
Are you ready for world government to replace all cities, counties, states, countries and private decision making?
Should (world government) decide how much water you can use, how much energy, what kind of energy you can use?
Would you like government to decide for you what you eat, when you eat, how much you can eat?  How about what you drink?
Would you like them to decide for you what you can drive, when you can drive, how far you can drive?
Would you like them to decide for you where you can live, how big your house can be, what it is made out of, and have routine inspections?
Would you like them to decide for you that you cannot fly, while they jet unlimited distances to advance their control over you?
Would you like them to decide when you can speak, where you can speak and what you can say?
Are you ready to have all of us register and then surrender our weapons?  (I think you already conceded this point.)
Do you think they should be able to take your home on a whim?  (Okay, skip that one.)
If so, you may be a Democrat.
Do you think I exaggerate?
Do you think someone like Rubio or Carson or Ryan, Priebus, Gigot, Boehner or McConnell are the same as today's Dem on these points?
I don't.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 12, 2015, 05:43:10 PM
quote author G M
"The majority in this country would say yes, as long as they still get the free shiznit."

Yes, the goodies, I think Carson called them.  Those are the Dems.  Don't be that guy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Dem debate this Sat 9:00 Eastern CBS
Post by: DougMacG on November 12, 2015, 05:49:02 PM
They want as few debates as possible and as few people as possible to see it.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 06:27:58 PM
Okay, this article, if true, shows how stupid the GOPe is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html)

"According to other Republicans, some in the party establishment are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking anew about drafting Romney — despite his insistence that he will not run again. Friends have mapped out a strategy for a late entry to pick up delegates and vie for the nomination in a convention fight, according to the Republicans, who were briefed on the talks, though Romney has shown no indication of reviving his interest."

The late entry strategy would consist of invoking Rule 40 for Romney.

There is no way I would ever vote for the 4th Stooge, Romney.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 12, 2015, 06:38:57 PM
At this point, winning the presidency is probably not the best interest of the republicans.

Okay, this article, if true, shows how stupid the GOPe is.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/time-for-gop-panic-establishment-worried-carson-and-trump-might-win/2015/11/12/38ea88a6-895b-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html)

"According to other Republicans, some in the party establishment are so desperate to change the dynamic that they are talking anew about drafting Romney — despite his insistence that he will not run again. Friends have mapped out a strategy for a late entry to pick up delegates and vie for the nomination in a convention fight, according to the Republicans, who were briefed on the talks, though Romney has shown no indication of reviving his interest."

The late entry strategy would consist of invoking Rule 40 for Romney.

There is no way I would ever vote for the 4th Stooge, Romney.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 12, 2015, 06:58:51 PM
I hear Harold Stassen is available to run again...........

If you believe as I do that there will be another massive financial event, followed by a "general war", then winning the Presidency is not a good investment. But things would be even worse with the Dems in the Presidency if those events occur.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Rubio responds to Cruz, immigration
Post by: DougMacG on November 13, 2015, 06:56:08 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/11/12/rubio_hits_back_at_ted_cruz_ted_is_a_supporter_of_legalizing_people_here_illegally.html
Rubio in a press conference:
"Ted is a supporter of legalizing people who are in this county illegally.
He supported a massive expansion of the green card.
He supported a massive expansion of the H1B program, a 500% increase.
I don't think our positions are dramatically different.
Everyone on that stage has supported the legalization of people who are here illegally.
Some define that as amnesty.  I don't.
I think amnesty is the forgiveness of a violation without a consequence.
Are you friends with Sen. Cruz?  Yes, absolutely.  We share the same background and the same views on many of the issues.
I'm not running against any of them.  I'm running for President."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 13, 2015, 07:12:57 AM
After seeing the Cruz v Rubio and the Trump v Carson battles breaking out, I have concluded that we are now into the next phase of the Primary battles. 

All candidates are certainly aware of the implications of Rule 40 and also the large number of candidates in the field. The lower ranked candidates mean little in the scheme of things and don't represent a threat to the major candidates except for a handful of support that would probably be split across the major candidates. So it is safe to ignore them for now.

The Big 4 are faced with the votes being split so that no one can get a majority of votes in any state. Hence, any win of a state does not count for Rule 40 purposes. So it behooves all four to begin to whittle down at least two of the Big 4. By doing so, the odds increase of being able to win a state with a majority of votes.

We can expect that the verbal heat is going to increase dramatically from this point on, especially since the next debate is about 4 weeks off and will not be as well viewed as the  holidays are coming up. So it becomes even more important to remain in the news cycle and to try and knock out the competition.

Watch for the Student Protests on Campus. If this continues to gain steam, then it is going to have a large impact later down the road. Add to that Europe and the immigration crisis ongoing there, and the winter and spring will be very interesting.............
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Minimum wage amateur hour
Post by: DougMacG on November 13, 2015, 08:52:43 AM
PP from Trump thread:  "Certainly the issue is who gets to determine "minimum wage", but revoking minimum wage is not going to sell in any election."

That's right.  The political question is about raising the minimum wage, not ending it.  Min wage is both popular and counter-productive.  This nomination contest is allegedly about who is willing to speak the truth even if it's not what people want to hear. 

On minimum wage, Carson showed his learning curve, getting it half-right, learning more and then getting it half-right in a different way.

Trump was attempting a valid point when he stepped in it like a political neophyte, wages are too high already.

Rubio understood that raising the minimum wage is a false question.  "If it would better their lives I would support it."

The question about min wage isn't about min wage; it is about how to help those people, and he seamlessly pivoted to the real question, very specifically and persuasively answering how he would help those people.

You will not win by accepting and playing on the liberal premise playing field.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Ready to rumble or stumble?
Post by: DougMacG on November 13, 2015, 09:08:36 AM
After seeing the Cruz v Rubio and the Trump v Carson battles breaking out, I have concluded that we are now into the next phase of the Primary battles.
...We can expect that the verbal heat is going to increase dramatically from this point on, especially since the next debate is about 4 weeks off and will not be as well viewed as the  holidays are coming up. So it becomes even more important to remain in the news cycle and to try and knock out the competition.
---------------------------------

Yes, but who can knock out whom?  Trump called Carson pathological.  Does that help Trump?  Doubtful.  Cruz is sharpening his differences with Rubio.  But as Rubio clarified back, it weakened the Cruz's argument for trying to pull from Trump's support.  

Negativie attacks work, but likability is one of the top traits people vote on.  The hard-hitting one may not be the beneficiary of the hard hit.

Candidates stay in the news cycle by making themselves available and going on the shows.  Our so-called 'professional journalists' all want to be the one who draws the quote that takes them down.  Who breaks the grain story.  Who got Hillary to say the VA wasn't that widespread.  Who got JEB to say there are a lot of other cool things he could be doing.  Who breaks the next one?

Events unknown will play a role.  Like pp says, the immigration mess in Europe elevates that issue.  The rise of ISIS made candidates like Rand Paul irrelevant.  What next?  Events could shake the Dems too.

Like Crafty said, watch the head to head matchups with Hillary.  As the primaries get close, this becomes a contest of who can win the general election.  In the latest, Carson is still matching up the best and Trump the worst. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Small samples, lousy polling.  It's still fluid.  

Supporters of certain candidates may decide they like their guy but maybe not for President.  The majority polled are still undecided.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 13, 2015, 09:30:43 AM
"(W)atch the head to head matchups with Hillary.  As the primaries get close, this becomes a contest of who can win the general election.  In the latest, Carson is still matching up the best and Trump the worst. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Small samples, lousy polling.  It's still fluid. Supporters of certain candidates may decide they like their guy but maybe not for President."

Yes.  I would add that for a while now many of these small sample polls are showing the same thing-- Carson polling the best against Hillary and Trump the worst of the Rep majors.  IIRC one had Carson up by 11 against Hillary and Trump down by 3.

I defend Carson against what I perceive the be the excesses and imprecisions of Pat's criticisms of him, but of course I am aware of what may turn out to be some seriously weak links in Carson as a candidate and as a president.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 13, 2015, 10:59:35 AM
You defend Carson because you think Snarly is a real babe and you want her on the ticket with him. :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 13, 2015, 11:49:27 AM

Whatever.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 13, 2015, 12:52:16 PM
PP,

"You defend Carson because you think Snarly is a real babe and you want her on the ticket with him"

I don't agree.  CD is a very open minded fair guy.

Carson does make excellent points, but I have to admit I find it hard to think of him as President.

But this endless recurrent talk of dusting off Romney and bringing him back makes me want massive anti-nausea medicine.
Title: Sanders vs. Paul debate?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 13, 2015, 01:04:40 PM
https://www.change.org/p/bernie-sanders-bernie-sanders-to-accept-rand-paul-s-debate-challenge?recruiter=22408728&utm_source=share_for_starters&utm_medium=copyLink
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 13, 2015, 02:11:11 PM
ccp,

That was my terrible sense of humor showing through.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 14, 2015, 08:46:10 AM
Now is the time to consider how the Paris attacks will affect the National Elections. We can assume:

1. ISIS takes a front and center stage among candidates on both sides. How to respond to ISIS will be the question. Do we wage all out war, or do we go with a piecemeal approach, just using Special Forces in limited attacks on various facilities? Since ISIS is heavily in Iraq, how do we handle that? Go back in with troops, or use air power which will not defeat them?

What about Syria? Destroy ISIS, but how?  And what about the other Syrian insurgents? Who are they and will the side with ISIS and fight us as well? Take out Hassad or not? If we do, who takes over? Will they be any better or worse?

How long and what forces do we commit? What are the goals? What is the exit strategy? Do we want a scenario where 15 years later, we are still "in country"?

2. Immigration now becomes more important than ever as a topic. Do we cease the Obama policy in admitting Syrian refugees? If not, how do we vet them? If Obama continues to accept Syrian  refugees, should Congress act to stop it before the election?

How does this affect border control arguments? How will Americans react to building a wall? Now, candidates will have to place on the table whether they will build a wall. They will also have to describe now what they will do with the illegal immigrants? Blanket Amnesty? Path to Citizenship? Or ship them out?

Rubio, Cruz and Carson are now going to have to address all issues like Trump has already done. The plans can be general in nature. But they must address the basic concerns. Build a wall, deport, or granting legal status.

For Trump, he is one lucky SOB. This just took away the potential problems with his Iowa speech this week. It is all now about Syria and Immigration.

I have been saying watch to Europe and see what happens, and that will have a major effect in the election. This is the beginning event. If more attacks occur or more problems with the immigrants happen, all bets are off. And if there is a successful attack in the US prior to the primaries, then Trump becomes even stronger.

What a mess of a world......
Title: Hillary's supporters support Sharia
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 14, 2015, 03:55:16 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKosd0xJadE#t=94
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Dem debate
Post by: DougMacG on November 14, 2015, 06:50:07 PM
I am live blogging, just kind of a slow typist.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Dem debate
Post by: DougMacG on November 15, 2015, 08:13:38 AM
I am live blogging, just kind of a slow typist.

I already posted everything memorable, nothing, now on with the rest.

First, they wanted no one to watch and the attacks in Paris certainly helped them keep this out of the news.

Hillary made no new gaffes, looked and sounded about the usual, positioned herself as carefully as should could between sounding reasonable enough to win and sounding socialist enough to compete with her current opponents.

For only about the second time I noticed that ccp is right, Hillary is running for President.

Backing up, let's meet Martin O'Malley first.  I haven't seen him much before.  Seemed like a pretty normal, middle aged aged, white guy, Democrat.  Looks to me like he was a two term Governor of Maryland, two term Mayor of Baltimore and two term councilman before that.  Served as chair of the Democrat Governor Association.  What you might call a professional politician.  He is not as unqualified or unimaginable of a nominee as people seem to think.  If Baltimore were a model city or Maryland a model state for the future success of the union, then he is your guy!  Unfortunately, the facts indicate otherwise.

Twice O'Malley pointed out that Maryland has the highest median income in the country.  Not tied to any of his policies that we know, but maybe tied into the wealth that surrounds Washington DC.  Our family business, T Rowe Price, is in Baltimore and so is Johns Hopkins.  Neither were created by O'Malley.  Baltimore and MD are also home of the riots and all the signs of abject failure in the city.  

With the debate following the terror coverage, all gave strong words.  O'Malley said ISIS is evil and our role is to confront evil.  The Middle East is a mess but that does not mean boots on the ground.  Call it what it is, "Radical Jihadis perverting one of the world's great religions".

Maryland raises taxes, he bragged, on everyone with the sales tax and on the 'top 14%' with the income tax and maybe a dozen other ways, brandishing his credentials.  Note that Ben Carson changed his residency to Florida upon his retirement.

Borders should have a welcome sign, the Statue of Liberty is our symbol, not a wall.

Hillary's Wall Street reform he called "weak tea".  He favors "gun safety".  MD decriminalized small amounts of marijuana.  And "Black Lives Matter", which is when I first noticed that R's have a black frontrunner, 2 Hispanics and a woman with executive experience, while the Dems have 3 pretty boring whites running.  They face a real challenge trying to keep their 95% hold and large turnout of blacks under Obama.  Recall that when Obama was off the ballot in 2010 and 2014, they lost nearly everything.

Asked what crisis he faced that shows he is ready, I liked his answer.  No Governor faces a crisis similar to what a Commander in Chief will face.

Bernie Sanders.  First, he looks and sounds exactly like a parody of himself, an SNL character.  He tried to take it to Clinton but wouldn't hit her directly on her weakest points.  Answering Bernie's charges and proposals is an important task for conservatives even after he leaves the national stage.

Bernie says "the system is rigged."  "People are working longer hours for lower pay."  "The benefits all go to the rich."  "Climate change is directly related to the rise of terrorism."  "The disastrous invasion of Iraq led to the rise of al Qaida and ISIS" (an attempt at a direct hit on Hillary).  "Regime changes have unintended consequences"  All policies have uninteded consequences he later admitted related to the raising of minimum wage causing job losses.

In our defense budget of $600B,  less than 10% of it goes to fight international terrorism.  We must destroy (radical Islam).  "The cold war is over".

Bernie was asked how high he would go with his top tax rate on the rich.  He said he would keep it lower than that socialist Eisenhower who had it at 90%.  Still looking into it, "we don't have a number yet" (or didn't want to say).

Healthcare, repeal Obamacare go single payer, Medicare for everyone.  "Healthcare is a right."  Wanted Hillary pinned down on that point, but the moderator wanted a commercial break.  Real unemployment is 10%.  Something else is over 50% (black teenage unemployment?).  No disposable income.  When we raise minimum wage and with mandatory living wage someday, all that new money in circulation will [trickle down / trickle up?] through the whole economy bringing prosperity to all.  Obvious follow up missed, why not more, why not sooner if it is all that simple.

Wall Street banks, break them up!  Credit unions are the model of the future.  Wall Street is part of corrupt campaigns, implying and really saying that Hillary is an example.  The current Wall Street business model is fraud and greed.

1 in 4 African American (males?) ends up in our criminal justice system.  The system is broken.  End minimum sentences [don't examine the welfare state that pushes those males out of responsible for the family.]  Send marijuana laws back to the states.  [What?  They oppose that for almost everything else.]

Free college, make states pay 2/3rds.  Study hard and you have hope.  [Students who are poor AND have a great academic record can already write their own ticket.]

The greatest crisis Bernie faced was the reforming of our veterans programs.

He hates the way America is now; we need a revolution to take it back.  [Take it back to when?]


Hillary Clinton, On terrorism and ISIS, she will "do a better job".  [Than Obama, than she did as Sec of State?]  WIll use tools like diplomacy and law enforcement.  [Huh?]  ISIS threat, must defeat, not contain.  [She is a hawk, just doesn't really have any direction.]  "We support those who take up the fight."  [Lead from behind]   Dickerson, moderator, you missed it? [The ISIS threat]  Answer:  A ramble about AssAd and blaming the region.  "Middle East is complicated, can't paint it with a broad brush."

Dickerson:  Did you get it wrong with Libya?    HRC:  Khadafy had American blood on his hands, turned on his own people, the people elected moderate leaders.

Dickerson:  Rubio called it Radical Islam, will you use that term?  Rambling no, violent extremists use religion for power and oppression.

Fighting ISIS, we already have authorization "AUMF", and we will have to go to congress for authorization to update it.  Which is it?  We will screen 65,000 Syrian refugees.  [Even though there is no resource or database.]

More programs, more spending, how will you pay for it all?  "No tax increase on the middle class." "Tax the wealthy more."  "Close loopholes."  She will not raise the debt!  [That literally means no deficits from Day One, possibly a lie?]

Healthcare, keep Obamacare, improve it.  "Republicans want to throw it back into debate".  [True.]
Keep the costs down.  [No plan to do that.]

Dreamers legal, make a pathway.  People that have been here for decades stay.  [Let's lock in that point in agreement.  That was decades plural.  If you have been here illegally for 20 years and otherwise tax paying, law abiding, then that is where we set up the pathway to becoming legal.  Maybe she meant, been here for minutes...]

Minimum Wage:  Go $12 nationwide, not $15.  Let other places like Seattle And NYC go further.
[Why not go higher if it is a good policy and delivers what it promises?  It isn't; it doesn't.]

Guns:  "No immunity for gun makers."  This is her liberal attack on rural state US Senator Bernie.  "This is an emergency."  "90% of Americans support gun safety."  [4 out of 5 dentists support sugarless gum for their patients who chew gum.]

The Clinton gaffe: The 9/11 defense of her Wall Street campaign contributions.  A nice angry clip that has NOTHING to do with the question asked, how dare you Bernie question me on my billions!  (Bernie voted for all the same NY 9/11 funding.  So did everyone else in the Senate.)

Dickerson took another shot at the emails, wanted to know if there is another shoe to drop.  "After 11 hours I think the answer is clear!"  [Huh?]  Followed by ramble.  Asked in follow up, people want us to talk about the issues, no answer again.  In this format, one tough question, one tough followup, no one points out that we did not get an answer.  There is an FBI investigation going on with Hillary and her aides, IS THERE ANOTHER SHOE TO DROP?

Dickerson to each:  What was the biggest crisis you faced that shows you are ready to be President?

HRC:  It was the planning for the bin Laden raid.  [Not Benghazi??!!]

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 15, 2015, 08:28:14 AM
That was the dem debate? I thought it was some sort of infomercial for Depends...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Dem, Radical Islam?
Post by: DougMacG on November 15, 2015, 11:24:14 AM
Meanwhile as they pick up the pieces in Paris, Dem candidates cannot bring themselves to utter the words, 'radical Islam'.
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/11/radical-islam-whats-that.php

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 15, 2015, 12:01:32 PM
It was the French Tea Party........didn't you get the memo?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 17, 2015, 08:53:29 AM
The Latest Morning Consult Poll.  It is interesting, especially seeing that of Obama voters in 2012, Trump pulls 29% of them.  This is only the second poll since the debate to be released. The other was the Reuters/Ipsos poll with the last tracking day of Nov 13.  Both polls show consistency with Trump leading and Carson second.

The questions are:

1. Why have no other polls been released yet for after the debate? And after Trump's attack on Carson?  Have any others been done, and if so, why not released?

2. What doe the polls mean?  At this stage until other polls are released, who the hell knows?

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2,LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150823-20151113/type/smallest (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2,LIKELY_PRIMARY15:1,PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150823-20151113/type/smallest)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUBD6_rWIAIr1OR.jpg:large)
Title: Trump in trouble against Clinton so far
Post by: ccp on November 17, 2015, 11:00:13 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 17, 2015, 11:07:17 AM
Newest Reuters Ipsos Tracking Poll just came out.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150817-20151117/type/day (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20150817-20151117/type/day)

The debate and subsequent Iowa speech appears to have had a minor effect, dropping Trump down about 1.7%. He is still higher than before the debate. (Two days polling were over Sat and Sun,  which could account for a bit of the drop.  Weekends do have a statistical effect, often negative in nature.)

Carson appears to have had a 4% drop, not good.

Rubio and Cruz appear to have had a bit of a bump from the debate, but nothing too significant. Jeb, a tiny bump.  All expected.

Paul got a pretty good bump, but that too was expected.

The next couple of days with Reuters should be very interesting. We shall begin to see how the Paris attacks affected things.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 17, 2015, 11:13:01 AM
ccp,

Yes, Real Clear Politics does show Hillary beating Clinton, but if you notice, RCP ignores a lot of other polls on their averages. They don't even use the Reuters poll, just primarily media pools, and PPP, which is owned by a Dem/Clinton supporter.

And the Marist Poll was so totally out of left field, it was incredible.  It seems a total outlier, but is in the RCP average.

BTW, Morning Consult shows Hillary 44 v Trump 43. Carson leads Hillary, 43 to 43%.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 17, 2015, 03:44:21 PM
Jindal gone from race.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 17, 2015, 04:32:47 PM
Everyone is asking where is the Jindal 0% support going to.......... :evil: :evil: :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 17, 2015, 06:19:08 PM
Everyone is asking where is the Jindal 0% support going to.......... :evil: :evil: :evil:

Cruz first and then Rubio.  Both could go up by...  0%.

Jindal is a good man.  Two term Governor, successful record, young, smart, conservative.  Didn't connect.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 17, 2015, 07:01:32 PM
Woof.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 18, 2015, 06:07:48 AM
Rubio tied for second in NH latest poll  This is starting to get interesting.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

Trump 23, Rubio 13, Carson 13.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 18, 2015, 06:16:32 AM
Rubio leads Clinton in Colo by 16 points, 52-36.
Carson leads Clinton in Colo 52-38.
Quinnipiac.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2303
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 18, 2015, 07:17:58 AM
On Quinnipac:

Trump is leading Hillary 48 to 37%

Quinnipac also proclaimed the Carson surge in Iowa. And Q missed the 2013 Governor Race in Colorado by only 13 points. Finally, Colorado cancelled their primary, so this is of little importance.

The NH polling is interesting, but there is certainly a lot of volatility to it.

Sep  23 Trump at 26%;  Nov 1 Trump at 18%.;  Nov 15 Trump at 23%

Carson bleeding support which appears to go to Rubio.

These were all done by WBUR.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 18, 2015, 07:28:23 AM
 :-o
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 18, 2015, 09:15:32 AM
"Trump is leading Hillary 48 to 37%"

Too good to be true.   If true watch for the liar to come out real strong on the Isis crises.

We know 40% of the nation will never vote in any way except to keep out ANY republican.

So these numbers are very hard to believe.
Title: Morris: Dems going over a cliff on ISIS
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 18, 2015, 10:04:54 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/democrats-going-over-the-cliff-on-isis-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 18, 2015, 11:49:00 AM
ccp,

If you look at the internals, Sanders does better than Hillary against all of the candidates in Colorado. But that said, Quinnipac has been showing some weird results in most of their polls this time around.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 18, 2015, 11:55:24 AM
Say what? New government Dept of Values?  What is this guy thinking?

http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/18/john-kasich-its-time-for-a-new-federal-agency-to-promote-judeo-christian-values/ (http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/18/john-kasich-its-time-for-a-new-federal-agency-to-promote-judeo-christian-values/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 18, 2015, 03:00:49 PM
"Rubio leads Clinton in Colo by 16 points, 52-36.
Carson leads Clinton in Colo 52-38."
Cruz tops Clinton 51 - 38 percent
"Trump is leading Hillary 48 to 37%"
"Sanders does better than Hillary against all of the candidates in Colorado"

Yes, weird poll, not reliable, but interesting.  Trump is 4th best out of 4 in the general election matchup in a swing state, but at least nearly within the admitted margin of error.

Colorado voted blue quite a bit lately and has regretted it.  They also have a significant illegal population.

It would be even more interesting to see the internal polls the DNC sees, getting too late for Dems to panic and swap her out.

Rubio has the highest, positive favorability spread.  Hillary Clinton has the lowest.  The matchup Dems fear most!

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 18, 2015, 03:13:33 PM
Kasich:  Yeah, weird-- and it will hit a lot of people that way.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 18, 2015, 08:29:21 PM
Kasich:  Yeah, weird-- and it will hit a lot of people that way.

It might be a good idea to fund the department of defense and close 4 other departments first.

That would make 25 in the room.  Even the teachers' union would call for a smaller class size.

Do you know anyone including Obama and Biden who can name them all?

The Glibness

Vice President of the United States
Joseph R. Biden

Department of State
Secretary John Kerry

Department of the Treasury
Secretary Jack Lew

Department of Defense
Secretary Ashton Carter

Department of Justice
Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch

Department of the Interior
Secretary Sally Jewell
 
Department of Agriculture
Secretary Thomas J. Vilsack
 
Department of Commerce
Secretary Penny Pritzker

Department of Labor
Secretary Thomas E. Perez

Department of Health and Human Services
Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell
 
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Secretary Julián Castro
 
Department of Transportation
Secretary Anthony Foxx
 
Department of Energy
Secretary Ernest Moniz
 
Department of Education
Secretary Arne Duncan
 
Department of Veterans Affairs
Secretary Robert McDonald
 
Department of Homeland Security
Secretary Jeh Johnson

The following positions have the status of Cabinet-rank:
 
White House Chief of Staff
Denis McDonough

Environmental Protection Agency
Administrator Gina McCarthy

Office of Management & Budget
Director Shaun L.S. Donovan

United States Trade Representative
Ambassador Michael Froman

United States Mission to the United Nations
Ambassador Samantha Power

Council of Economic Advisers
Chairman Jason Furman
 
Small Business Administration
Administrator Maria Contreras-Sweet

25.  New Kasich Secretary of Happy Thoughts
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential: Fox poll, NH, Nov 2015
Post by: DougMacG on November 19, 2015, 08:44:03 AM
Trump 27
Rubio 13
Cruz  11

Sanders 45
Clinton  44

But look at the general election matchups:

Clinton 47
Trump  40

Rubio 47
Clinton 40

This is a small, swing state.  Trump matches up worst; Rubio matches up best.

PP,  Let me guess, Northeastern Cuban Americans were over-sampled ...      :wink:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2015, 09:43:34 AM
Underlining the point I have been making for a while now-- we need to keep our eye on the 1-on-1 with Hillary numbers!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 19, 2015, 11:25:26 AM
No...not Cuban Americans.......just Rockefeller Republicans and elitist commies.

1 on 1 numbers really mean nothing now either because it is all about how the nomination process goes. And as long as there are at least three strong candidates, no one will when a majority of voters in any one state, so the cigar smoke filled backroom will name the nominee.

Glad everyone likes that scenario................especially since they will try to give us Jeb if he is still in it.  I still expect this will result in Rubio.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2015, 11:37:28 AM
Actually 1-on-1 numbers mean EVERYTHING and should be a major if not THE factor in determining the Rep candidate.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 19, 2015, 11:44:41 AM
No...not Cuban Americans.......just Rockefeller Republicans and elitist commies.

  )    It is a tiny electoral state but R's need all the electoral votes they can get in a close election.  Think Bush-Gore 2000, 4 votes matters.

1 on 1 numbers really mean nothing now either because it is all about how the nomination process goes.

   Clinton 47, Trump  40
   Clinton 40, Rubio   47    

   - It's early but it means something.  As Crafty suggests, people eventually will want to win.

And as long as there are at least three strong candidates, no one will when a majority of voters in any one state, so the cigar smoke filled backroom will name the nominee.

   - First the primary voters will have their say and everyone will know the result.  Trump leads now but cannot win the nomination without being seen as best to win the general election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 19, 2015, 01:44:49 PM
Watch for the National Ipsos poll coming out in 3 days. If the scuttlebutt is correct, there should be medical personnel standing by to treat Doug and Crafty. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2015, 03:03:54 PM
My guess is Dr. Ben will be moving down noticeably.  He is not handling foreign affairs questions well. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 19, 2015, 03:41:31 PM
 :-D :-D :-D  Just a part.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 19, 2015, 04:19:41 PM
Here it is. In a 3 way race of Trump, Carson and Rubio

Trump 43%
Carson 26%
Rubio 25%

Page 7 & 8 for some interesting results.

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15090 (http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15090)
Title: Hillary: Muslims have nothing to do with terrorism
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2015, 04:32:25 PM
http://therightscoop.com/hillary-clinton-muslims-have-nothing-whatsoever-to-do-with-terrorism/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 19, 2015, 05:03:01 PM
The Right Scoop is correct. They are just practicing their religion.  How can we deny them the right to practice what they preach?
Title: Morris
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 19, 2015, 06:29:14 PM
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on November 19, 2015
In the wake of the ISIS Paris attacks, Donald Trump has moved to a clear lead over Ben Carson and the rest of the GOP field.

Carson's laid back style and his reluctance to use force against terrorism -- he said that he would not have sent troop stop Afghanistan after 9/11 -- is costing him support in the post-Paris, post-debate polling.

In the six polls before the November 10th GOP debate and the Paris attacks on November 13th, Trump and Carson were tied at an average of 24 points each.  In two poll since -- by Bloomberg and PPP -- Trump averages 25% while Carson fades to 20%.

In the aftermath of the debate and the terror attacks, Cruz and Rubio have both gained with the Texan doubling his vote share from an average of only 6% beforehand to 12% afterwards. Rubio also rose, but only from 11% to 12.5%.

Bush continues to languish in the second tier.  Before the debate/attacks, he registered 6% in national polls and he has stayed there after them.

The surveys confirm the view that the race has boiled down to the final four: Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 20, 2015, 07:16:34 AM
For the record, here is how it stands for me right now:

Regarding Carson, I continue to have liking for him but I have given him more than enough time to display foreign affairs chops and feel that he has come up short; likewise with his ability to make his case on various other policy issues in a way that could stand up to and defeat Hillary.   If I had to vote today, he would be my third choice with Cruz and Rubio tied at first and second. 

In sorting out who gets my vote and admittedly tiny financial backing I will be placing great weight on who polls better one-on-one versus Hillary.

Again, this is only a snap shot.  My thoughts remain as before-- quite fluid.
Title: Who could have seen this coming? GOPe vs. Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 20, 2015, 03:28:10 PM
GOP Operative Plans ‘Guerrilla Campaign’ Against Donald Trump
Move comes as growing number of Republicans fear damage to party’s image and ‘Hillary Clinton will become president’
By Beth Reinhard And
Janet Hook
Updated Nov. 20, 2015 3:36 p.m. ET
WSJ

The Republican establishment, increasingly alarmed by the enduring strength of Donald Trump’s presidential bid, is ratcheting up efforts to knock him out of the race, including the first attempt to unite donors from rival camps into a single anti-Trump force.


A well-connected GOP operative is planning a “guerrilla campaign” backed by secret donors to “defeat and destroy” the celebrity businessman’s candidacy, according to a memo obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

A super PAC supporting Ohio Gov. John Kasich is airing a series of ads attacking him. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush struck with his bluntest attacks yet on Friday, and the Club for Growth, an economic conservative group, plans to resume attack ads that it has run in Iowa against Mr. Trump.

Together, the efforts seem to represent a turning point in the Republican contest, in which other campaigns have previously been skittish about taking on Mr. Trump so directly. The sense of urgency has mounted in part because Mr. Trump continues at or near the top of GOP polls, even after many predicted that the Paris terrorist attacks would lead voters to turn to a more seasoned candidate.

The most concerted effort is Trump Card LLC, the guerilla campaign being launched by Liz Mair, the former online communications director of the Republican National Committee.

“In the absence of our efforts, Trump is exceedingly unlikely to implode or be forced out of the race,” according to the Trump Card memo. “The stark reality is that unless something dramatic and unconventional is done, Trump will be the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton will become president.”

Opposition research, grass-roots organizing and donor outreach has been going on for weeks, Ms. Mair said, while declining to name any backers. “It’s loosely organized and highly confidential,” she said. “I certainly know donors who are very happy that their fingerprints will be kept off things.”

Asked about Ms. Mair’s campaign on Friday, Mr. Trump declined to respond in detail, but said through his spokeswoman Hope Hicks that Ms. Mair “worked for Scott Walker and lost her job—who can blame her?”

Ms. Mair worked briefly for Wisconsin Gov. Walker while he ran for president, but quit after her pre-campaign postings disparaging Iowans were unearthed.

As a limited liability company, Trump Card LLC wouldn’t have to disclose its donors to the Federal Election Commission. Viveca Novak, communications director for the Center for Responsive Politics, said she was aware of no restrictions on the kinds of political activities that could be funded through an LLC. “Anyone can set one up,” she said. “You don’t know who is behind it.”

Ms. Mair, who has ties to the libertarian movement and the GOP establishment, said that donors backing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Mr. Kasich and Mr. Bush are interested, and that some worry that going public could hurt their candidate.

Rick Wilson, a Republican media consultant, said in an interview that he is prepared to make ads for the new group. Mr. Wilson isn’t involved in fundraising but predicted that a number of Republican donors will start bankrolling an anti-Trump effort.

“People are finally taking the threat that Trump will destroy the Republican Party and lose the general election to Hillary Clinton seriously,” said Mr. Wilson, who recently started working for a new super PAC backing Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

The super PAC supporting Mr. Kasich, New Day for America, on Thursday began airing a series of ads that show Mr. Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson while invoking the Nov. 13 Paris terrorist attacks. “On-the-job training for president does not work,” an ad says.

Mr. Trump responded by threatening to sue the super PAC. “John Kasich should focus his special-interest money on building up his failed image, not negative ads on me,” Mr. Trump said in a stream of posts on Twitter.

Mr. Bush, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday, criticized Mr. Trump’s proposals to tighten U.S. security with measures such as closing mosques. Mr. Trump also recently seemed to endorse setting up a Muslim registration database, but backed away from that on Friday.

“You talk about closing mosques, you talk about registering people, that’s just wrong,” Mr. Bush said. “It’s manipulating people’s angst and their fears. That’s not strength, that’s weakness.”

The new anti-Trump effort is planning a more direct and blunt approach than previous efforts. The group’s memo said it would be pitching opposition research to media in early-voting states, as well as radio and television ads and Web videos that attract media attention based on their “outrageousness and boundary-breaking or bizarre nature.”

One possible ad would link Mr. Trump’s views and style to his celebrity foe, Rosie O’Donnell, in hopes of provoking a reaction from Mr. Trump, according to the memo.

Other possible tactics include fake pro-Trump ads that show him supporting socialized medicine, seizing property through eminent domain and taking other positions that stray from GOP orthodoxy; using a Trump impersonator to show him insulting people; and attacking his business record in “stark, nasty terms.”

The goal, according to the memo, isn’t to covert Mr. Trump’s supporters into backing other candidates, but to dissuade them from voting altogether, especially in New Hampshire’s influential first-in-the-nation primary.

For financing, the memo said the group is seeking $250,000 from donors in multiple GOP presidential camps.

Ms. Mair helped lead the online media campaign for 2008 Republican nominee John McCain while at the RNC, and advised presidential candidate Carly Fiorina during her 2010 Senate race.

Until Mr. Kasich’s super PAC ads, there has been little paid advertising attacking Mr. Trump. That is in part because donors have been reluctant to invest in such efforts, because they assumed that his candidacy would fizzle on its own.

Some candidates, such as Mr. Cruz, have been reluctant to attack Mr. Trump because they hope to inherit his supporters if and when his candidacy fades. Others candidates willing to criticize him, including Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, have either remained at the back of the pack or dropped out of the race.

Club for Growth, which also doesn’t disclose its donors, earlier this fall spent $1 million on anti-Trump ads that ran for three weeks in Iowa. The ads attacked Mr. Trump’s positions on taxes, trade and other issues that the group said exposed him as a liberal—a contention that Mr. Trump denied.

Doug Sachtelben, a Club for Growth spokesman, said they believed the ads contributed to a drop in Mr. Trump’s standing in Iowa polls in early October, when Mr. Carson rose to first place in several surveys.

Mr. Sachtelben said the group hoped to run more ads like that in Iowa and New Hampshire but couldn’t say when.

“We’re still in the fundraising stage,” he said.

Write to Beth Reinhard at beth.reinhard@wsj.com and Janet Hook at janet.hook@wsj.com
 
Title: FOX poll one-on-one vs. Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 22, 2015, 10:04:25 AM
THIS is what should have our attention!!!

Rubio
40 to 42

Bush
45-39

Carson
47-42

Trump
46-41

Cruz
45-41

Christie
46-43

Firorina
42-42
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 22, 2015, 10:27:50 AM
I hope Trump wins it. His attitude is exactly what America needs....not an apologetic one.

If he was saying the same things he's saying, but another color, and in any country, he'd be being cheered and everyone knows it.

It's high time the majority attitude of society is changed. That usually requires use of force.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 22, 2015, 11:01:21 AM
DDF...

Hear! Hear!

Glad to know that there is other support for Trump here.

The Fox Poll that CD just posted is now being born out across the board in Trump v Hillary match ups and the small sample polls are now showing Trump at 10% over his closest rivals. And of most interest, the media polls are showing Trump increasing his lead.  No matter what type of "take down" of Trump is attempted, it fails. And....after each attempt, Trump appears to gather more strength.

CD (this may not apply to you), I heard a couple of reliable sources say that those who are against Trump have lost in the "he won't run" argument, then the "he will drop in support" argument, and now they go to the "head to head" argument. It shall be interesting to see what the new arguments will be.

Barbara Walters had a very good interview of Trump and his family Friday night. It showed the "real" Trump and not just the "campaign trail" Trump. I can only see the inverview helping him.

Why Trump is getting such support is that there is a "reaction" to the Obama Years and the PC cultural that has persisted in the country for decades. The "common person" is fed up with it, with the Occupy and BLM movements, and all the other b.s. They are looking for someone who speaks for them, which has not occurred probably since Gingrich.

We do live in interesting times.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 22, 2015, 12:33:32 PM
I'd like to live in peace.

The unfortunate problem is, that so many of the liberals have zero problem trampling people's rights (including the right to even be racist or bigoted), all the while telling everyone else that they must be fined $100,000 dollars for refusing to make a cake, telling people who they have to serve, who they have to live with, how they have to defne marriage, that they have to vaccinate their children, that hey're privileged for being born a certain color, ad nauseum.

They really are starting to sound like they need their own utopia.

I say, let's give it to them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Arthur Laffer on best tax plans
Post by: DougMacG on November 23, 2015, 09:12:16 AM
The Paul And Cruz Flat Tax Plans Are Best Tax Proposals

    - only if they win.

As we've cheerfully noted on these pages, the good news on the presidential campaign trail is that almost all Republicans are now for serious pro-growth tax reform and simplification. Every candidate wants lower rates (some a one-rate flat tax), fewer loopholes and carve-outs, and a reduced role for an abusive IRS.

    - That was also true in 2012, Cain's 9-9-9. Romney's plan, etc.

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-brain-trust/112015-781892-paul-and-cruz-flat-tax-proposals-best-candidate-tax-plans.htm#ixzz3sKqJB7Vn


You have to win to enact tax reform.  Critics of these plans (at the link) are right about the dangers they open for future tax abuse.
Title: Morris
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 23, 2015, 03:23:46 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/presidential-race-takes-shape-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, favorability ratings, PPP
Post by: DougMacG on November 24, 2015, 08:28:29 AM
That ABC Washington Post poll (Trump thread) was the most recent I could find with candidate favorability data.  Here is another, PPP.  First I re-post our PP's view of polling organization PPP:
"PPP, which is owned by a Dem/Clinton supporter"

My disclaimer, I don't believe any of them in absolute numbers but we are looking for trends, patterns, relative strengths and relative weaknesses as compared to other candidates.

In this one, PPP 11/19/2015, they all have pretty low ratings.  They're all politicians now.
------------------------------

Barack Obama approval  43-52, -9

Jeb Bush        22-55, -33
Ben Carson     40-40, even
Hillary Clinton  39-53, -14
Ted Cruz        33-45, -12
Carly Fiorina    31-41, -10
Marco Rubio    39-37, +2
Bernie Sanders 31-49, -18
Donald Trump  34-55, -21

In the matchups, Rubio beats Clinton by 2, the only one to beat her. Clinton beats Trump by 1, Cruz by 2, Carson by 2.  Not very significant.
It possibly shows how few votes there are to chase in the middle.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_111915.pdf

It's still early.  All polls are flawed.  Still we need every point we can get.  Any 3-4 point lift in a close election makes a big difference on the electoral map.  More important to me is which candidate with a good campaign could turn this into a blowout and which ones will always be polarizing.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 24, 2015, 08:37:04 AM
If you looked at the Trump thread, the WAPO poll had a   23% Republican Sample, 33% was Dem with the rest Independent.

How can anyone trust a poll using a 23% Rep sample?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 24, 2015, 08:51:35 AM
Interesting that the PPP sample used 44% Rep and 39% Dem.

Yet when you look at the match ups, the Rep/Dem divide does not show up. In fact, it would appear that 17% not mentioned, likely Independents, break heavily towards Hillary.

Wonder what other non-disclosed parameters existed with this poll?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 24, 2015, 09:12:08 AM
If you looked at the Trump thread, the WAPO poll had a   23% Republican Sample, 33% was Dem with the rest Independent.

How can anyone trust a poll using a 23% Rep sample?

'Republican' is not a very popular brand name.  Neither is 'Democrat'.  But the questions force people answering to make choices.

Also, there is no money to be made in early detailed polling, so as you suggest, some organizations are doing it as part of an agenda.

If the agenda here is to support Hillary, they aren't doing a very good job. 

Still these polls are uncovering relative strengths and weaknesses.  Trump and Cruz are the most polarizing.  They are the first choice or only choice of their strongest supporters, but the same strong rhetoric drove up their disapprovals with the rest.

In the end, if she's not indicted, convicted or hanged, Hillary's dishonesty will be pushed mostly to the side and people will vote on issues and direction.  Republicans will need to put their very best foot forward if they want to step on her. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 24, 2015, 01:27:50 PM
Interesting report from CNBC. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/voters-would-show-up-if-trump-is-on-2016-ballot.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/voters-would-show-up-if-trump-is-on-2016-ballot.html)

Quote
No matter what party affiliation you consider, Trump brings them out. Republicans, Democrats and independents are all most likely to show up if Trump is on the ballot. (In our analysis, we assumed a constant variable: the Democrats nominating Hillary Clinton.)

Not only do they show up to vote, but they vote for Trump. He's got the highest percentage of voters — across both parties and independents.

This part is telling.........Trump will get cross over votes last seen with Reagan.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2015, 05:56:24 PM
Now that IS interesting!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 24, 2015, 06:31:00 PM
I be telling you this :evil: :evil:

Trump is pulling support from the Dems in droves. You don't see it because most polling is in the primary portion, and when it is national, the partisan representation is skewed to the Dems because they are using 2014 voter stats and with Romney, at least 4% of expected voters did not go to the polls.

If you really want to get a feel for the "new" Trump, you should watch his current rallies. He is becoming more polished every day.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 24, 2015, 06:39:08 PM
We live in interesting times!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 27, 2015, 09:58:10 AM
At this point in the 2012 cycle, through about the second week of December, Newt Gingrich was the front runner.

What that means for this year is - - -  I have no idea!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 27, 2015, 11:46:29 PM
Reuters Ipsos, Trump down 12 points in one week.
Lib poll, under sampled R's, previous poll was an outlier, etc.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0TG2AN20151127?utm_source=Facebook
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 28, 2015, 08:25:38 AM
Good morning Doug!

I have been waiting for you to post this.  Love your reasons for not believing the poll. But let's look at it from another perspective.

Reuters uses a 5 Day Rolling Average to arrive at the new daily numbers. So what does that tell us with this poll?


                           N16          N17       N18       N19      N20       N21     N22       N23       N24       N25      N26        N27

Trump                 37.6           35.8     36.2       36.6      35.8      36.0      32.0     32.0       33        30.0      28.0       35.0

Cruz                     11.2           11.2      11.3      10.0       11.3     12.6      18        19          20        19         19         13

Carson                15.4            15.9     16.7       16.7      17.1     17.4      17        12.7       12.2       9.2        9.4          10

Rubio             14              13.8     13.5       13.3      12.9      11.6     12.1      12.5       11.9      16         15            14

Jeb                      5.1              5.2       5.1         5.1       5.1        4.5      5.3        7.2         7.7        8.3        9            11


Sample                636             697      687        660       550       328     237      222         199       182        178        165


1. The sample size daily dropped from 697 down to 165. The smaller the sample, the greater the "weighting" of the poll. Weighting adds significant biases and increases the margin of error on small sized polls.

2.  For Trump, on Nov 21 and N 22, a 4% point drop occurs, down to 32%.  The Nov 22 sample was a much greater drop than 4%, since with a rolling average, the drop also had to take into account the previous 4 days at 36%. For N22 to be at 32%, then the actual daily results were about 20%. Add in that the sample was 237 people for the day, and you have a major issue with the poll.  (The reserve happened for Cruz that day, going from 12.6 to 18%.)

3. Look at N26 and N27, you see the same issue pop up again, based upon a 165 person sample.

Obviously, the sample size is a major determinate, along with the weighting used. Add to this that the polling is occurring during a holiday week which is generally accepted to cause reliability issues, and the results become circumspect, especially when looking at the N27 response where Trump jumped back up to 35%.

I would simply toss this week results out the window and only consider results beginning about the end of next week as being more reliable indicators, provided that sample size increases significantly.

(If not for the N27 increase in Trump's numbers to 35%, I would have looked at the results a bit differently, wondering if Trumpisms had finally caught up with him, though I would have wanted to see more daily polling to reach any conclusion.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 28, 2015, 10:04:44 AM
Found out what happened with the Reuters Poll.  They did a "correction (weighting)" to the statistical model after Trump started hitting over 40%. This dragged it down for a couple of days, but is beginning to correct.
Title: Dowd, NYT
Post by: DougMacG on November 30, 2015, 07:05:28 AM
Maureen Dowd NYT has a smart family.  Who knew.  Here is her brother reporting at Thanksgiving.  Best Maureen Dowd column ever.  BTW, she has slipped a little herself off of the Hillary bandwagon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/opinion/king-kevin-versus-queen-cersei.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

While liberals and the mainstream media may regard the myriad Republican presidential candidates as a “house of crazies,” I see an embarrassment of riches. It is the ultimate irony that the Republican field blows the Democrats away on one of their favorite topics —

Here’s how I see the Republican contest and the Democratic coronation:

Donald Trump: With all his bombast and incivility, Trump has joyfully debunked political correctness for the complete fraud that it is. With his talent for making debate ratings soar, he has allowed all the other candidates to be seen and heard at celestial levels unreachable without him. He has touched a nerve because people are fed up with liberal groups being offended at every slight, real or imagined. (I can assure you none of these people were taught by Jesuits.) Three Ivy League schools are currently under siege, with students at Princeton demanding the removal of Woodrow Wilson’s name from a building. Washington and Jefferson are up next as former slave owners, leaving Al Sharpton as the default “father of our country.” We are tired of apologies for America’s exceptionalism.

Ben Carson: Not since Eisenhower has a complete novice politician been so legitimate a contender. Can he avoid the traps set for him by the media? He presents intriguing possibilities as part of the ticket, forcing African-Americans to choose between him and the wife of the man Toni Morrison called our “first black president.”

Marco Rubio: Young, whip smart and self-assured, he has an encyclopedic knowledge of foreign affairs and is a stunning contrast to Hillary Clinton both in generation and vision. Wait until he starts delivering his speeches in Spanish.

Ted Cruz: The Hispanic heir apparent to Barry Goldwater had the best moment in the third debate, calling out an obscure cable TV host looking for his 10 minutes of fame.

Jeb Bush: I like the Bushes, all of them. Jeb would have been the perfect Republican candidate from 1988 to 2000. In this age of instant gratification, his wonkish grasp of policy does not move the needle. Too bad.

Chris Christie: Trump with better manners. A certain pick for attorney general if this gig does not work out.

Contrast our informed candidates with the Democratic lineup of Queen Cersei, the socialist Doc Brown from “Back to the Future” and the lead singer of O’Malley’s March. I keep waiting for Martin O’Malley during debates to whip out his guitar for a few Irish songs. It would be more entertaining.

Clinton: She’s seeking the highest office in the land even though 60 percent of the country does not trust her and her emails are currently under F.B.I. review for potential national security breaches.

Bernie Sanders: His proposals for free health care, free college and expanded Social Security have a price tag of $18 trillion with no way to pay for it. Not even a candidate for budget director.

The next president will have to deal with a severely weakened hand, at home and abroad. The bill for “leading from behind” has come due. After the Radical Islam (dare I say thy name?) attack on France, the president who called ISIS “contained” was left to issue his familiar disclaimer that Islam is a religion of peace. In dealing with foes, Clinton, in a 2014 speech at Georgetown University, called for “trying to understand, and insofar as is psychologically possible, empathize with their perspective.” Note to Hillary: Any enemy with beheading as a menu item does not deserve empathy.

A peeved President Obama lashed out at Republicans for daring to pass a bill asking for a more robust screening process for the Syrian refugees. His adviser, Ben Rhodes — the political hack behind the deceitful Benghazi talking points — assured us that our screening was airtight even as 47 Democrats voted for the bill. The president has been forced to face the inconvenient truth that others will lead the world in this battle while he continues his lonely quest against the world’s “greatest threat”: climate change.

Our enemies do not fear us, and authority at home is being questioned by a disgraceful campaign since Ferguson to undermine the police. I am the son of a policeman, and a police officer is killed in the line of duty every 60 hours. The thin blue line is the only thing that separates our society from anarchy. There will be awful shootings by police officers like the one in Chicago, but these are exceptions. My dad told me that any job where you can legally carry a gun will occasionally draw the wrong type of person. Police officers certainly do not deserve to see the media turning criminals into celebrated victims. The next time you see a police officer, say thank you.

So, ask yourself three questions: Do you want a president who refuses to name the enemy? Who do you want to appoint the next three Supreme Court justices? And who will protect the homeland and honor the Constitution? Then pray that you got it right.

Title: Herman Cain Slams Jeb Bush, Defends Trump...
Post by: objectivist1 on December 01, 2015, 06:23:12 AM

Published by: Herman Cain on Monday November 30th, 2015
Herman Cain

Big talk from Mr. 5.5 percent.

Someone should tell Jeb Bush that I’ve accepted an invitation to speak at Donald Trump’s rally this coming Monday in Georgia. I accepted for a simple reason: He asked. But Gov. Bush seems weirdly interested these days in the connection – if only in his own mind – between what he thinks happened to me and what he thinks is going to happen to Trump.

I’ve heard this one before, of course. Herman Cain was leading the 2012 primary race only to “flame out,” and the same thing is going to happen to Trump. This is how Bush tried to reassure disappointed supporters this past Monday, invoking “the fall of Herman Cain”:

Jeb Bush cited the rise and fall of 2012 GOP presidential hopeful Herman Cain as he sought to reassure supporters at a Longboat Key fundraiser Monday that their faith in him is well placed.

By noting that Cain led in the polls at this point in 2012 only to flame out, Bush implied that current GOP front-runners Donald Trump and Ben Carson could follow the same path.

I’m sure his supporters were really reassured by this. Hey, don’t worry that I’m way behind and gaining no ground whatsoever, but there was once this one guy who led and didn’t win.

So let’s talk about this. In late October 2011, the polls had me leading the Republican race for president with 24 percent. After that, of course, I was the target of accusations that I’ve already explained were complete B.S., and you can read about that if you want to here. This precipitated my fall in the polls to the point where, by late November, I was in third place and polling at 14 percent. This is when I decided to leave the race because the turn it had taken was imposing too much hardship on my family.

But there’s a reason I bring up these numbers. At the height of my campaign I was in first place at 24 percent. Even when I left the race I was in third place at 14 place. Who am I? A guy who ran a pizza company and had a successful corporate career before hosting a talk show in Atlanta. I was not anonymous but I was hardly famous.

Who is Jeb Bush? He is the former governor of Florida and he has one of the most famous political last names in America. He has more political money behind him than any candidate in this race with the possible exception of Hillary Clinton. And how is he doing in the polls? The current Real Clear Politics average shows him in fifth place at 5.5 percent.

If you want to say I had a “fall,” go ahead, I guess. You can’t fall when you’ve never gotten any higher than the floor in the first place, and that’s the state of the Jeb Bush campaign. A guy with his name, his money and the team behind him should be one of the top-tier contenders, and he should certainly not be letting Donald Trump wipe the floor with him if Trump is as unserious and unqualified as Bush would have you believe.


And yet, Jeb Bush can’t break out of the middle single-digits.

As for the suggestion that Donald Trump and Ben Carson will surely flame out because Herman Cain did, you’ll probably not be surprised that I’m getting a little tired of that one. But I would tell you two things.

First, I was and remain proud of what my campaign accomplished. No, we didn’t get to the finish line, but most of the people who run me down have never gotten anywhere near as far as we did – and as I mentioned above, that certainly includes Jeb Bush.

Second, it’s a different year, and Donald Trump is a different guy. I realize that the Bush political cabal may see all icky outsiders as the same, and thus assume that all will have the same fate. I wouldn’t bet on that. Trump is very smart, has done his homework and has learned a lot from what happened in many previous campaigns – including mine. He’s stayed atop the polls a lot longer than I did, and his rivals haven’t accomplished much by sitting around invoking whatever it is that they think happened to me.

But if I were to give Jeb Bush a piece of advice – not that he probably thinks he needs any from me – it would be to focus on coming up with a rationale for a Jeb Bush presidency. To date, I haven’t heard one that’s got many people very excited. And to judge from the polls, 94.5 percent of Republican primary voters agree with me.

Even if Trump does come back to the pack at some point, there are other candidates much better positioned to pick up support because they’re much more appealing than Mr. Famous Political Name. And really, when you haven’t come anywhere close to what some pizza guy once did, you sound pretty desperate trying to use the pizza guy as your defense.

At least I was once winning. Jeb Bush has been doing nothing but losing throughout this entire campaign. His problem is him.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Quinnipiac
Post by: DougMacG on December 02, 2015, 07:57:13 AM
http://townhall.com/tipsheet/christinerousselle/2015/12/01/watch-megyn-kelly-n2087464

Trump 27, Rubio 17, Cruz 16, Carson 16, all others 5 or less.

Dems win in general election matchups (Dems oversampled?). 
Rubio   -1
Carson -3
Cruz    -5
Trump -6

The relative differences between these candidates and the presumptive Dem nominee have been quite consistent.

If I wanted the most conservative nominee to prove a point, I would pick Cruz.

If I wanted the one who draws the biggest crowd, biggest audience, most attention, I would pick Trump.

If I wanted the best chance to win the election and turn the country around, I would pick Rubio.

If I was single issue against illegal immigration, for border control around all of that, I would pick the one with the best chance to win over Hillary.

If I cared about the next 4 decades of governance by the judiciary, I would be scared to death of letting Hillary nominate the next 3-5 Supreme Court Justices, especially with the Senate vulnerable to go back to the Dems.  I would choose the candidate most likely to defeat her.

Unless the facts change, it's kind of a simple choice.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on December 02, 2015, 08:29:48 AM
I don't for a moment believe these polls.  Something is amiss here.  I simply do not believe that a majority of voters would choose Hillary over Trump or Cruz or Rubio, not even over Carson.  The organization(s) doing these polls are either being lied to, or have serious flaws in their methodology.

Rubio is an establishment Republican and will not change much.  There is a good reason the lobbyists are overwhelmingly supporting Hillary and Rubio.  That is NOT a good thing for the future of the country.  Further - I don't trust Rubio on immigration.  He is for sale to the highest bidding donors and lobbyists.  We have seen his naivite and willingess to go along with the establishment Gang of Eight.  Not a good choice.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 02, 2015, 09:00:20 AM
The Q poll is only one of two polls that shows Hillary beating all Reps. All other polls either show a time or in most cases, the Rep beating Hillary, and in huge numbers. Even the NBC polls are showing Reps beating Hillary.

Q has been the most out of line poll of all the polls being done. It appears to under poll on Trump by about 10 points and over polls on Rubio significantly as compared to other polls.
What might be in effect with this poll is the "holiday factor". Polls done during holiday periods are well known for being significantly wrong.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 02, 2015, 09:08:52 AM
"I simply do not believe that a majority of voters would choose Hillary over Trump or Cruz or Rubio,"

I hope your right Objectivist, but I am not so sure.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 02, 2015, 09:40:22 AM
My humble opinion:

Rubio is an "establishment Republican" because he has been accused of that?  I would not like to take on all the labels I have been accused of being.  I wouldn't even want to list them here.

The establishment begged Rubio to not run against establishment incumbent Governor Charlie Crist for Senate in Florida, 2010.

The establishment begged Rubio to not run against Jeb Bush for the nomination Jan-March of this year.  That is standing up to them recently.

Rubio's position now on border security proven first before negotiating further does not match the wishes of his so-called establishment puppet masters.  It matches the will of the people and the state of the congress, not the wished of the chamber of commerce or whoever.

Nothing about him looks like a man controlled by his donors.  He looks like a man who lives and breathes for limited government, national security and individual liberty.

All the commercials running here right now are for Ted Cruz.  Big PAC, Texas money, but he's not a puppet either.  Trump gets his publicity without spending money - so far.  The one with the biggest money in this race will be Hillary.  Being able to attract large donors based on the quality of your message and your candidacy is a good thing IMHO.  Selling out to them is not.

I understand the fear of donor control over a young candidate on the way up who relies on others instead of himself to make decisions.  I don't get how someone who wins an office often called leader of the free world on his own merits and talents is beholden to anything other than doing what he promised to do.  He has bigger things to do than donor payback.  Defeat ISIS, get his economic agenda through congress and persuade the American people to support it.  Appoint judges.  Repeal executive orders.  Talk to the American people.

Rubio isn't running for payback to contributors, a zero sum game.  Nor is Cruz.  Hillary... well that's different, they already have a game going.


OTOH, that you don't trust him on immigration is a valid concern that he will have to overcome.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 02, 2015, 09:51:52 AM
The Q poll is only one of two polls that shows Hillary beating all Reps. All other polls either show a time or in most cases, the Rep beating Hillary, and in huge numbers. Even the NBC polls are showing Reps beating Hillary.

Q has been the most out of line poll of all the polls being done. It appears to under poll on Trump by about 10 points and over polls on Rubio significantly as compared to other polls.
What might be in effect with this poll is the "holiday factor". Polls done during holiday periods are well known for being significantly wrong.

All polls have sampling problems.  In the only recent poll where Trump leads Hillary, Rubio leads her by more.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/11/20/fox-news-poll-2016-matchups-syrian-refugees/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 02, 2015, 12:02:31 PM
"I simply do not believe that a majority of voters would choose Hillary over Trump or Cruz or Rubio,"

I hope your right Objectivist, but I am not so sure.





I had a liberal finally admit to me (after cornering them with facts as to whether the Constitution mattered or not), that they simply didn't care if Obama was an American and still would have voted for him.

There comes a point when we finally have to admit, that at a minimum, there are two perspectives in which direction the American future should take. People no longer share common values, and Americans are NOT united, not at all.

This will end badly for someone. It remains to be seen as to who it will end badly for.
Title: NRO on Cruz vs. Rubio
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 02, 2015, 12:07:44 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427854/marco-rubio-ted-cruz-split-conservatives
Title: Re: NRO on Cruz vs. Rubio
Post by: DougMacG on December 02, 2015, 01:56:06 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427854/marco-rubio-ted-cruz-split-conservatives

Other than the small matter of getting Trump and Carson out of the lead, this article accurately sums up the race. (IMHO)
Title: WSJ: Reps various POVs on foreign policies
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 04, 2015, 06:12:02 AM
The spreading threat of terrorism is exacerbating a schism in the Republican 2016 presidential field, pitting hawkish candidates against those urging restraint in what could be the most robust foreign-policy debate in years.

Their arguments are taking on a fresh sense of urgency after the mass shootings in San Bernardino, Calif. Although questions remain about the perpetrators’ motives, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Thursday directly linked the event with killings elsewhere in the world, saying he was “convinced” it was a terrorist attack.

“We need to come to grips with the idea that we are in the midst of the next world war,” the former U.S. attorney told hundreds of members of the Republican Jewish Coalition gathered a few blocks from the White House.

The resurgence of interest in national security has put a finer point on the candidates’ world views—from the anti-interventionism of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul to the more aggressive stances of Mr. Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and others.

The downing of a Russian plane over Egypt, the attacks in Paris, and—perhaps—the California shootings are giving voters growing reason to consider national security as central to the choice of the next president. That raises a tricky political issue because, while Americans may be fearful and anxious, there is no obvious consensus about what the U.S. role should be.
In a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson recounted his recent trip to Israel and stated his support for actions it has taken to defend itself amid violence in the Middle East. Photo:AP

On the hawkish end of the spectrum, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has called for a big military expansion. He argued at the GOP Jewish forum that the U.S. military withdrawal from the Middle East has destabilized the region and made the U.S. less secure. He wants to increase the Pentagon budget to add some 40,000 soldiers to the Army and rebuild the naval and air fleets.

Mr. Christie has been trying to boost his stature by focusing on his experience as a prosecutor after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. He was first nominated for the position by former President George W. Bush the day before the attacks and used the Patriot Act to prosecute terrorism-related crimes as the state’s top prosecutor. He criticized Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Mr. Paul for voting for legislation earlier this year to end a National Security Agency program to collect the phone records of millions of Americans.

Mr. Cruz recently accused Mr. Rubio of advocating “military adventurism.” Mr. Rubio Thursday took a veiled swipe back at Mr. Cruz, as well as Mr. Paul, for supporting legislation that would cut military spending and international aid. Without naming his Senate colleagues, Mr. Rubio took his rivals to task for opposing a bill authorizing funding for the “Iron Dome” missile shield that protects Israel.


“I believe those who speak about their pro-Israel views but carelessly support a gutting of our international affairs budget, including assistance to Israel, or who vote against legislation funding U.S.-Israel defense programs, need to check their priorities,” Mr. Rubio said. “You cannot be pro-Israel while also attempting to eliminate assistance that Israel uses to defend itself.”

Mr. Rubio also has criticized Messrs. Cruz and Paul for supporting reforms of the NSA program, which Mr. Rubio has argued would make the U.S. safer in the aftermath of the Paris terror attacks.

Mr. Cruz has seemed lately to be trying to straddle the party’s divide. He has been bellicose in his rhetoric but reluctant to commit to expanded U.S. troops in the fight against Islamic State. “Our enemies are at war with us.…Our nation needs a wartime president to defend it,” Mr. Cruz said Thursday. But he also criticized U.S. efforts to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, arguing that past efforts to depose strongmen in Iraq and Libya were misguided and contributed to instability in the region.

“Toppling a government and allowing radical Islamic terrorism to take over a nation is not benefiting our national security interests,” he said.

That argument puts Mr. Cruz in league with Mr. Paul, who has asserted that the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Moammar Gadhafi in Libya fueled the rise of ISIS. In the last GOP presidential debate, Mr. Paul criticized Mr. Rubio for supporting American military assistance to the uprising in Libya that deposed Gadhafi. “Marco supported Hillary’s war in Libya which destabilized the region,” Mr. Paul said.

The heightened concern about terrorism has also put a sharpened focus on candidates’ experience and ability to be commander-in-chief.

“Who has the right stuff?” asked Mr. Bush in his speech to the GOP group Thursday. “Who has the experience?”

Meanwhile, the candidacy of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has suffered as a result of the shifting dialogue. He has seen his standing in polls drop amid questions about his command of foreign policy. He didn’t seem to do much to quell those doubts Thursday when he addressed the Republican Jewish Coalition.

He read his 30-minute speech from notes, looking down at his lectern and not at the audience. He repeatedly botched the pronunciation of Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, making it sound instead like the chickpea dish hummus.

Businessman Donald Trump may have lost some support Thursday when he refused to recognize Jerusalem as the undisputed capital of Israel—a litmus test issue for many U.S. Jewish voters.

And while he tried to show common cause with the attendees, he touched on a Jewish stereotype to do so. “This room negotiates deals, probably more than any group I’ve spoken to,” Mr. Trump said, winning applause and some laughter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 05, 2015, 08:02:17 AM
(http://americanmajorityaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AMACBumperSticker-FireObama.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - NSA Metadata
Post by: DougMacG on December 06, 2015, 08:14:57 AM
 "you need the haystack to find the needle."

My understanding of where the candidates stand on the so-called NSA metadata issue:

Erring on the side of 'security', as front runner Trump put it:
Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Chris Christy, Lindsey Graham

Erring on the side of 'privacy':
Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Bernie Sanders.

Rand Paul wants a "smaller haystack". 

The data only adds security if you use it and also aggressively use all the other tools available to track potential terror attacks.

I argue that: 
1)  We received essentially none of our lost privacy back through the ending of this program.
2)  Chasing down records via lawyers and courts means it is not immediately available to those we wish were tracking terror leads.
3)  Storing the same information at the phone companies still leaves a similar risk of a hack or misuse.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 06, 2015, 08:42:03 AM
Useful post Doug!

Let's discuss the politics of it here and the merits of it on Intel Issues.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on December 06, 2015, 09:08:22 AM
Rather than a massive NSA dragnet, you could actually do aggressive police work and target bad guys and their networks. Like the ton of uncollected evidence left at the berdoo jihadi lair.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 06, 2015, 10:16:07 AM
Rather than a massive NSA dragnet, you could actually do aggressive police work and target bad guys and their networks. Like the ton of uncollected evidence left at the berdoo jihadi lair.

Not mutually exclusive choices, IMHO.  Give them the tools and do the hard work.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 06, 2015, 11:21:07 AM
Merits on the Intel thread please.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 07, 2015, 12:02:48 PM
Newest Monmouth Poll from Iowa. This month, Cruz leading at 24%.  Last month, it was Carson in the lead with 32%. August, it was Trump and Carson tied at 23%.

It is all about the assumptions that one makes on the electorate. In this case, Monmouth took people who had participated in 2012 and 2014 elections only. So it now comes to get out the vote of which Trump has a very strong organization. For Cruz, I have heard little on that.

Next month in Iowa, it will be

Cruz at 70%
Rubio at 55%
Carson at 15%
Jeb at 25%
Trump at -65%

(http://media.hotair.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/ia.jpg)

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 07, 2015, 02:13:39 PM
Oops..............CNN ORC poll of Iowa...


Trump 33%

Cruz  20%

Carson  16%

Rubio   11%


http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/poll-results-ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/poll-results-ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa/index.html)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 07, 2015, 05:45:39 PM
Going in the right direction:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/07/hillary-clinton-poll-free-fall/

I worry about the Senate races.  Mostly Republicans at risk this time around.

Can anyone imagine Repubs win the Presidency and then lose the Senate?

Also definitely get rid of the filibuster.   I recall when the Repubs had the Senate and Congress and WH for two years nothing could get done due to the Dems controlling the floor.  Is that ridiculous?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 07, 2015, 07:01:23 PM
Quite at variance with other polls cited her which show her losing to about 5 of the Reps, including by 12 to Rubio.

For the record, though I could gladly vote for Rubio, at the moment Cruz is in first place for me:

I like his tax proposal best.  I like that he is willing to stand for privacy from the Orwellian state even in the heat of the emotions of this moment in time.  I like that he now opposes the TPP (only Trump also does).  I wish he supported increasing spending for military like Rubio does, and wish he was tougher on China in the South China Sea (contrast Rubio).  I like Rubio, but sometimes wonder if he fully gets how the world has changed from the bi-polar military era of Reagan or the uni-polar era the Clinton-Bush era.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 07, 2015, 07:21:03 PM
Cruz gets better and better on the podium.

That to me is a sign of a real genius.  We still haven't seen his peak.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 09, 2015, 09:23:19 AM
Lead tightening, Cruz and Rubio have taken over statistical tie for 2nd. 
Carson on a down trend.
Bush stuck, 4% even with heavy advertising.
Christy who has been the talk lately - at 2%
Kasich, Lindsey Graham, others all 1% or less.
If Carson doesn't correct his slide this is a 3-way race.
3-way races are, shall we say, awkward.
The lower tier needs to clear themselves out unless we want our leaders to win with a plurality instead of a majority

USA Today/Suffolk   12/2 - 12/6
   
Trump    27   
Cruz      17
Rubio    16   
Carson   10   
Bush       4   
Christy     2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Clinton   56
Sanders  29

Clinton will win with weak support.  44% of Dems won't say Clinton!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

And, you guessed it, Rubio is the only one to lead Clinton in the general election matchup with a 7 point advantage over Trump, 5 better than Cruz.
That is starting to look like a pattern.  Let me know when that starts to be important to you people...   )

Clinton 48, Trump 44    Clinton +4
Clinton 47, Cruz 45       Clinton +2
Rubio 48,   Clinton 45   Rubio +3
Carson 45,  Clinton 46   Clinton +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/

Warning, polls have statistical error and often over and under sample subgroups.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 09, 2015, 09:41:21 AM
Also, Real Clear ignores a large number of polls, especially those that use on-line sampling. Curiously, all of those have Trump ahead by 10 points or more, and many by double.

This election is going to determine whether on-line or phone calls will be the new practice.

Real questions?

Can Cruz win in a general election?  No, Tea Party associate will knock him out and he will not get cross over votes. He will not even be the Presidential candidate.

Can Rubio win in a general election?  Maybe the polls say so, but he has not been subjected to the strong attacks that will be mounted by the Dems. Also, Amnesty will pose a big problem.  He is Jeb lite.

Can Trump win the general election?  Only if the GOP gets behind him, and they will not. The donors will go to Hillary since it benefits them and they only care about their bank accounts. 

Again, Trump will not be the candidate because everything possible will be done to stop him at the Convention. And when that happens and Rubio gets the nod, say goodbye to the GOP, whether Trump goes 3rd Party or not. 

Why support a party that believes its true base, the Middle Class, means nothing and are too ignorant to know what is good for them?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 09, 2015, 10:10:39 AM
Pat:  "everything possible will be done to stop him at the Convention."

You may be right but there are a lot of primary votes and delegates to be selected before the convention.

This has been a divided race, but so far no reason to think it will be a close race.

If it gets to the convention and if GOP has superdelegate votes like the Dems do, we can expect those votes to go to:
a) The superdelegate's preference, presumably Rubio over Trump if that is the choice, or
b) to the leader in vote count so far, or
c) to the candidate who is more likely to win the general election.
In other words, we don't know which way they will go, but if it swings against Trump, well that is his fault or responsibility to court those votes.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 09, 2015, 10:32:57 AM
DMG,

1. There are 3 Super Delegates in each state.  All total, there are 159.  All are RNC Party officials and these will go to the RNC/GOP pick which is Rubio. So that means 10% of the total needed.

2. In the first 10 states or so, proportional representation occurs. What this means is that unless the winner gets 50% plus 1 of the total vote, the votes are split among the top two or three in most cases. So figure Rubio will get 1/3rd of all cast.

3. Most of the primaries after Mar 15 are winner take all. So if trends hold, Trump would get most. Or if Trump falters, Rubio.

With Rubio, Cruz and Trump all running in each primary, unless something catastrophic happens, no one will get more than 50% of the actual vote. Then comes Rule 40.

Under Rule 40, to have a name placed in nomination, the person must have won 8 primaries by at least 50% plus won. So it is likely no one will have that number of states to have their name placed into nomination. (Even if Trump had the number of delegates pledged to win, he could not have his name placed into nomination.) In that case, the RNC has the authority to change the rules. Here is where the fun begins.

The RNC could pull any sort of things, including that pledged delegates could move to the candidate of their choice. Promises and deals could be made that would effectively ruin any opportunity for either Trump or Cruz to come out in front. And then, Rubio is the nominee.

Does anyone think that this is far-fetched? Look at what the RNC has already tried in attempts to stop Trump. They will not stop at anything to prevent Trump from being the nominee. And they will do the same to Cruz.

Once they do that, the GOP is finished as a major party. The Middle Class base will desert them, as well they should.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 09, 2015, 10:45:50 AM
Wow, here is a surprise................Dole does not like Trump or Cruz.

1. Who knew that Dole was still alive?

2. Who was that who beat Dole in 1996, and this loss occurring after Gingrich had the stunning 1994 win in the off year elections?  Oh, yeah, Clinton....

3. Who opposed Ronald Reagan every time he ran?  Oh, Dole.....

4. Who should pay attention to this loser, GOPe politician?  No One.


http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/election/article48657165.html (http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/election/article48657165.html)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 09, 2015, 11:11:19 AM
On this we agree.  Dole was, and is, an irrelevancy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 09, 2015, 12:37:33 PM
If Trump has the support claimed, especially from outside the traditional Republican voter base, outside of the 2012 Romney vote base, outside of the people who voted in the primaries last time, then he can and should bring in new voters and win 8 (or all) primaries with 50% or more and end this question.  It doesn't take that many voters to do that in the big picture of it all.

If it comes down to a tiebreaker and Trump has a recent history of running against the party, working and donating against the party and matching up worse in the general election, and he wasn't able to seal it up with new voters before the election, he would expect extra support ? 

Giving credit where credit is due (in the Republican Party), Trump bumped up viewership in 3 debates, somebody else built the rest, such as winning 32 governorships, taking out the Pelosi-Reid-Trump congress and winning 70% of the legislatures, making it possible that there is a major party with debates and endorsements for Trump to enter.

If Trump wins the nomination, at the ballot box as he should, he has said he doesn't want anyone else's money, so from the party purse perspective, that is settled.

The party is being blamed for a whole lot of shenanigans here that haven't even happened.  This is a pretty open process.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 09, 2015, 12:52:55 PM
DMG

We shall see.

But I have no faith in the Party of McCain, Romney, McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, Ryan, King, Rubio, Bush 1, 2 & 3, and all of the others. Betrayed by them too many times. Lied to by them too many times.

After 2012 and the Romney debacle, I decided not to bother in 2016. I would not repeat the same mistake a third, fourth or fifth, or even 20th time. The only reason that I have any enthusiasm for 2016 is Trump. If he is not involved, I go back to my original position and sit things out. And........I will not be alone.

The Middle Class is through with politics as usual. It is change or "let it fail".

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 09, 2015, 03:24:31 PM
 :-D :-D :-D

Zogby....polling after Trump's comments on Muslims


• Donald Trump: 38%
• Ben Carson: 13%
• Marco Rubio: 12%
• Ted Cruz: 8%
• Jeb Bush: 7%
• Chris Christie: 4%
• Carly Fiorina: 3%
• Others/Not Sure: 16%

Small sample with 6% MOE. But largest lead for Trump yet with Zogby polling.

Fox has a North Carolina poll done on the day before and day after. It finds on the day after, another similar jump in support for Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 07:28:19 AM
New CBS Poll

Trump at 35%, up from 22% in Oct

Cruz at 16%.

Rubio is SURGING and up to 9%.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Laying Odds on the GOP race, Sean Trende
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2015, 09:00:12 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/10/laying_odds_on_the_gop_presidential_race_128994.html

Good article, kind of agrees with Pat.  First place is no winner before the convention.  Second is Trump with only 20% odds.  80% says he doesn't get it and 33% chance it either Rubio or Cruz, evenly split.  The only one really left to make a rise is Christy, who is in the 'Trump lane' should he falter.

Trende also points out the floor and ceiling problem that Trump seems to face.

In other words, no one knows where this is going.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 01:54:50 PM
What have I been saying about the GOPe manipulating the Convention?   I don't remember............

This might help me remember.........

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gop-preparing-for-contested-convention/2015/12/10/d72574bc-9f73-11e5-8728-1af6af208198_story.html)

Quote
Considering that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened, several longtime power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight, in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.

Quote
“The RNC is neutral in this process and the rules are set until the convention begins next July. Our goal is to ensure a successful nomination and that requires us thinking through every scenario, including a contested convention.”

Quote
Attendees included Ward Baker, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee; Rob Simms, his counterpart at the National Republican Congressional Committee; Ron Kaufman, an RNC committeeman and Mitt Romney confidant; and pollster Linda DiVall. Whit Ayres, an adviser to Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), and Vin Weber, an ally of former Florida governor Jeb Bush, also were there, among others.

Quote
RNC members will huddle in January in South Carolina to discuss the convention. Although no rule changes can be implemented until the convention, the people familiar with the meeting said top Republicans would like to begin that winter meeting with more clarity about how the RNC would handle a contested convention.

Okay, I remember now. These sons of bitches will ignore the "will of the people" if Trump is leading in votes and delegates. They will manipulate the rules to put in Rubio or Jeb. To hell with the people, it is all about doing what their patrons want.

They do this, and it will totally destroy the GOP. It will splinter into 2 different parties, and the lovely Dems will be all for it.  (BTW, had a talk with one of the attorneys I deal with regularly. She is a big Clinton supporter. Talk about the glee in her voice when she told me that the GOP was preparing to "divorce" (her words) Trump.)

Guess I have not been imaging things.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2015, 02:33:29 PM
If Trump can't handle the GOP and the RNC, they are just too evil and conspiratorial, how is he going to handle N.K., Iran, ISIS, China, Putin?  He seems to have no tools in the arsenal except whine and threaten to leave.  Another approach would have, could have been to join the party, back candidates and causes over a long period of time and give money to the party and the important races.  How much has he given to Ron Johnson in Wisconsin I wonder.  Doesn't care if arch liberal Russ Feingold comes back in over a tea party businessman and swings the Senate to the Dems, or like foreign policy, maybe he just isn't interested in it?

Instead of helping Republicans, Trump was with Hillary and Pelosi and Reid, neutralizing thousands of GOP'ers contributions over those years and he expects them to forget that and jump in his parade?  Actually he doesn't expect them to join him; that is why he starting up these preemptive shots at them.

Trump built the ceiling on his support that keeps the rest of the people out, and its a solid one.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 03:34:43 PM
Trump did what he had to do for his business. New York, you pay off everyone to get things done. And payoff of politicians in any part of the country is standard fair. So is unions, etc.

Uuh....per different people, including Dan Quayle, Trump has been interested in running for decades, at least to 1992. But the time was not right. Okay, he gave money to Dems, but he also did to Reps. He did what was needed to get his own needs met. So is that wrong? If so, what about every SuperPac, corporation, and rich person in the country? They all do the same thing.

This is not about Trump having supported or not supported Reps in previous elections. Look at what these same fools tried with Reagan. This is about saving the Country from the professional politicians. Politicians on both sides bought and paid for by Crony Capitalists, Wall Street Financial firms. Health providers and who knows what else?

You say to work withing the Party, well good luck with that. At all levels, the Party is controlled by those who will fight to avoid change and the disruption on their own little empires. Just take the GOP fostering upon us McConnell, Ryan, Romney, Boehner, McCain, Dole and the many others. 

We don't have time to work through the parties, The country is only a few years from collapse at the most. We must take action now. And that does not include the other fools running................they are simply more of the same......
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 10, 2015, 03:37:08 PM
"She is a big Clinton supporter"

Nothing greater than the idea of lawyers supporting an obvious serial law breaking attorney for the top job in the country to give us confidence in our "justice system".

 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 03:49:09 PM
What is even better is that she is a very religious Catholic. When I asked her about Hillary, Juanita Brokerick, Paula Jones and others, she had nothing to say except that "gotta take this call. Going to trial this week with this client."

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 10, 2015, 03:52:24 PM
People say "Stalinist Russia" like it's a bad thing.

It wasn't all bad.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 04:10:20 PM
DMG,

I must ask this......

From a Party perspective, I can understand your view, though I don't believe in it. But how about this?

A majority of the GOP voters in most states vote for Trump and he wins those states, though it is not a 50% plus one majority.

As a whole, the majority of GOP votes go for him when all states are counted.

Trump has a majority of the delegates.

So, what does the GOP powers say to those who voted for Trump when they manipulate the Convention to get their way and to prevent Trump from being nominated?

What reason do they provide?

What reason do they give for Trump supporters to vote for the GOP candidate?

Do you think that this will cause the Trump supporters to give in and support the GOP pick?

Just asking....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2015, 04:57:03 PM
"You say to work withing the Party,..."

No, I'm not saying he should, I'm pointing out that he didn't.  He still attacks his own side as if they are the enemy, then acts surprised that somebody isn't with him.  

He wrote the rules of this.  It wasn't something the party did to him.  And it's all wimpering about a wrong that did not happen yet.
-------------------------------------

The Sean Trende article I posted earlier addresses the 3 scenarios going to the convention:

"My most likely scenario (25%) is still that no one wins a sufficient number of delegates to claim the nomination. As Nate Silver lays it out, this comes in three different “flavors”: (1) No one wins, but someone is close enough that the writing is on the wall; (2) no one wins, but things get sorted out at the convention; (3) no one wins, and it is fought out on the convention floor. I agree with Silver that these are presented in decreasing order of likelihood, and actually put the overall percentages lower than he did (and lower than I did last winter)."

Under scenario 1, No one wins, but someone is close enough that the writing is on the wall:  That is the only scenario where the superdelegates should feel obligated to vote the way others want them to vote.  It isn't unique to a Trump candidacy that tipping a close party endorsement, one way or the other, risks being seen as illegitimate.  

Note the distinction between winning a plurality and a majority.  What we see right now is that Trump built a strong plurality.  He leads in all polls where the others can not get over his ceiling of about 25-35%.  

The endorsement conventions I've been to (mostly state and local) typically require a 60% threshold to endorse.  After they announce the result of each ballot you see who is gaining ground and who is losing.  People want it to end and go home.  There is a lot of pressure on those losing ground after 2 ballots to drop out.  In a convention floor fight, I see Cruz as a bigger threat to Rubio than Trump.  The activists tend to be more conservative in my experience, mostly not the moderate chamber of commerce type.

The distaste Trump built with the others outside his 25-35% support is his doing.  It isn't pretty watching an 11-fold billionaire dish it out ruthlessly ("just look at her face!") and then play the victim card.  It's his job to persuade those delegates.  That he refuses to do that is one reason people never took his candidacy seriously, even into the second half year of him being the frontrunner.

You're right, he knows how to win over a politician, a union or a mob on a project in Manhattan.  If his political strength is that he's not a politician and never run for office before, it could also be his undoing.  The other risk he runs is that when he does be more conventional, he loses his edge and becomes just one of the pack.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 10, 2015, 05:30:18 PM
Two things:

1. Trump can't get over 35% now.  Well what about the other candidates? If they can't beat Trump here, how can they beat Hillary?

2. Again, what will the GOP say to the Trump supporters to get them to support their pick? The party cannot win the presidency without the Trump supporters.

IMO, I just see the professional political class once again imposing their own views on the party.  And they will leave the party with more ineffective leadership.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 10, 2015, 07:12:45 PM
Two things:
1. Trump can't get over 35% now.  Well what about the other candidates? If they can't beat Trump here, how can they beat Hillary?
2. Again, what will the GOP say to the Trump supporters to get them to support their pick? The party cannot win the presidency without the Trump supporters.

IMO, I just see the professional political class once again imposing their own views on the party.  And they will leave the party with more ineffective leadership.

1.  Yes, we wouldn't be discussing this if one of the others was polling well over 50%.

2. That goes both ways.  They need to unify to win in spite of what you say about Trump's crossover appeal.

3.  Rubio doesn't win if he is mainly seen as a professional politician, you are right. He must be seen as an agent of change to win.  He will also be seen in contrast to Hillary.  The perception of hanging around Washington too long will fall on her, not the first term senator.  She will try to paint him as tea party extremist, not Washington establishment.  All the accusations now that he is too moderate and centrist will only help him in the general election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 11, 2015, 04:42:13 PM
Two things:
1. Trump can't get over 35% now.  Well what about the other candidates? If they can't beat Trump here, how can they beat Hillary?
2. Again, what will the GOP say to the Trump supporters to get them to support their pick? The party cannot win the presidency without the Trump supporters.

IMO, I just see the professional political class once again imposing their own views on the party.  And they will leave the party with more ineffective leadership.

1.  Yes, we wouldn't be discussing this if one of the others was polling well over 50%.

2. That goes both ways.  They need to unify to win in spite of what you say about Trump's crossover appeal.

3.  Rubio doesn't win if he is mainly seen as a professional politician, you are right. He must be seen as an agent of change to win.  He will also be seen in contrast to Hillary.  The perception of hanging around Washington too long will fall on her, not the first term senator.  She will try to paint him as tea party extremist, not Washington establishment.  All the accusations now that he is too moderate and centrist will only help him in the general election.


Year after year, we do do this.... Libertarians and Tea Party members expected to give in and support Republican mainstrain candidates.....


I have a better idea.... "NO!. Not this time."

Let Clinton win it, let it all burn, because you (the other half of the GOP voters who won't be inclusive of teapartying conservatives or conservative libertarians, won't play ball.... so let's forfeit the match until we can all fight this out because things have putrified to that extent.

Bear in mind, to many, the only ones that GOP lifestyles are sacred to, are to the so called political elite and wealthy. There is a growing sector of the country that gets tired of being called "cracker," having their children taken away from them in divorces so they can pay even more to a greedy pig, even though they paid everything in years of marriage, gets tired of being told they have to give their own country away, and that they're guilty for being White....

No more. Let the whole thing f ing burn.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 11, 2015, 05:47:59 PM
Thank you DDF for that response. You cite exactly why the Trumpkins/Vulgarians have simply said to hell with the GOP.

I might note that the GOP has indicated that the Trumpkins are welcome back in the Party, but only under GOP conditions. Otherwise we are not welcome.  Certainly sounds like the Big Tent Party they profess to want.

More and more people are seeing that with Trump, the GOP will suffer irrepairable damages either way. If Trump is the nominee, the GOPe losses control and the base becomes a force to be reckoned with. They stop Trump when Trump would otherwise be the nominee, and the Party is destroyed because the base will simply part ways.

Is the GOP willing to give up control? Not likely, so it is the end of the Party.

And Yes............Let It Burn!!!



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 11, 2015, 05:54:56 PM
"If Trump is the nominee, the GOPe losses control and the base becomes a force to be reckoned with."


Strangely....this is what voting was supposed to be used for....

All's well that ends well.


To hell with it.

How about that affirmative action American Dream?

I'll never forget the day that I called the Small Business Administration to get a loan from my own taxpayer dollars and was told flat out that because I was White and a male, that I wouldn't qualify....if only I was making that up.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 11, 2015, 06:32:36 PM
I known what you mean. With lending, it is a new situation, but in the opposite. A lender can deny a loan to a minority for legitimate reasons like bad credit or ability to pay. But if the denials affect a large number of the minority class, then the lender can be sued for disparate impact, even though the decision was correct. And even worse, if they give the loan but the loan defaults, they can be sued because the loan defaulted, even though they were forced to fund the loan.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 12, 2015, 06:47:16 AM
Pro-immigration economist Lawrence Kudlow now says, this is war, seal the borders.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/12/ive_changed_this_is_war_seal_the_borders_stop_the_visas_129021.html

Why didn't Trump say that?

Not all Muslims look like Muslims or how was Trump going to sort them out?  That wasn't his concern;  he wanted this moment of shock and awe in the campaign and the media (again and again) and he got it.

Nate silver says Rubio was  more cautious than Bush, Christy, Kasich, Graham etc and waited 3 hours to say he disagreed. 
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-republicans-and-polls-enable-donald-trump/

As I tried to make the point earlier, these candidates are not trained monkeys or seals, required to sit up there and respond to whatever the leader is uttering.  

It's more complicated than that, they need war room type fast responses when called for, but they also need to choose their moments to refuse to be put on defense.  The successful candidate needs to dictate play, as coaches tell their athletes.  Trump is doing that but in a bizarre way.

When interrupted out on the trail to comment on the latest thing Trump said that they haven't even heard yet, they need to be able to say, hey, what I'm talking about here is more important than that.  And that had better be true.  Otherwise they need a little ear piece so their team can signal in whatever the latest Trump just said, like the guy who who interrupted the kindergarten reading to tell Bush the country was under attack.

The ones who handle the unexpected easiest are the ones who already know what they believe.  They can say no, we aren't going to single out all Muslims, but that doesn't answer the question:  WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO TO PROTECT US?!


A journalist studying Trump voters pointed out the difference in messaging.  Carly was explaining how she implemented encryption on something at HP, showing her security competence in a tone deaf sort of way in the context of the threat we face.  Meanwhile, Trump got in front of all the cameras said, THESE PEOPLE ARE ANIMALS!  He is communicating on a different level, base level, while demonstrating again and again that he doesn't care if people draw some politically incorrect meaning out of that.

I've been saying Trump won't win but that isn't right if it turns out he is the only one seen as serious about recognizing and addressing our fears and this threat.


The other story helping him that others seem to not connect on is the economy.  Less than 50% of the people are now in the middle class.  When I red that I thought it was just some bogus measure, but it is measured based on percentage away from the median.  As we have been saying here in response to Wesbury et al, the 5% unemployment economy with however many consecutive months of (pathetic) job growth is a misrepresentation of what people are actually experiencing.  The message, Make America Great Again is making a connection with working people and people who want to be working, saving and chasing the American Dream.  Bush, with Right to Rise, has almost the same message  but isn't connecting. Rubio is also selling the idea that greatness is ahead if we successfully change course, but Trump is connecting better right now on a more base level than all the others on the economic insecurity people are feeling.

Take away Trump's negatives and you have a winner.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 12, 2015, 07:49:40 AM
Why is Trump connecting with the Middle Class and the working man?

1. He has given "permission" to the people to do away with the PC crap that they so hate.

2. He talks with the Middle Class and speaks their language. When you listen to the others, especially Jeb, they are talking "at" them, in a manner that poorly communicates an idea.

As I remember from Communication Courses, and as I have found in writing evaluations for the Courts, keep everything to a 12th grade level. Don't make it complicated whereby a person has to think about what you wrote, or said. If you don't, you lose the essence of what you want to get across.

I was surprised to see you surprised about the Middle Class being less than 50% now.  This is one of the points that I have been trying to make in both the housing and the political threads, but obviously in a very poor manner. Income is down since 2002 and for many it is reaching levels for 1996. And in terms of real income, back into the 70's for many. Add to this the number of people who are now part time so that businesses can comply with Obamacare restrictions, and there is a real problem.

How to identify how bad things are? If the government would do studies and release them of how many people:

1. Have less than 3 months of living expenses in bank and retirement accounts.

2. Have Middle Class incomes and Credit Cards Limits equaling more than 35% of their Gross Income Yearly.

3. Have Credit Card Balances that are greater than 50% of the maximum limit.

4. Make the Minimum Payments due on those cards.

5. Have no further access to cash.

The Middle Class is living paycheck to paycheck. They are one to two months away from living on the streets and they are one hospital stay from the same. And the Lower Class is even worse.

But those in power do not understand this, or even care about it. Instead, they offer platitudes about just work harder and you will be where we are. It is just not that simple.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 12, 2015, 07:52:29 AM
(http://i.imgur.com/ISgidUa.png)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 12, 2015, 12:29:30 PM
Pat,  I am a landlord so I am the first to know when income is down.  This Nov and Dec have been  perhaps my worst 2 months ever for collections.

Trump isn't communicating at the 12th grade level.  He is connecting on an emotional and primal instinct level.  At the 12th grade level people would  see his positions are all over the map.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 12, 2015, 02:12:22 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ben-carson-rnc-washington-post-216674
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 12, 2015, 03:02:56 PM
Maybe so Doug. But the numbers keep going up for Trump support. What does that really say for us and who we are?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 13, 2015, 07:42:59 AM
"the numbers keep going up for Trump"

12 Hillary v. Trump polls since Oct. 1.  Hillary leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, even in 1.

Trump says 10 of these are flawed, 2 are accurate.

NBC/WSJ lastst poll: 59% have negative view of Trump.  49% say very negative.
These aren't the numbers Pat is referring to.  )

Asked about the Muslim entry ban, Rubio says 1) it won't happen, and 2) we need the cooperation of the American Muslim community to uncover radicalization and terror plots in this country.  True?

Obama struck a climate agreement with no enforcement and requires no congressional approval.  He brags that we lead the world in reducing our emissions.  No mention by anyone of the number one step we took to accomplish this, outside of Washington, which is the switch to natural gas made possible by fracking.  

Republican Debate this week, Tues Dec 15.  
Democrat Debate 8 pm Sat night Dec 19.  Was the 2am time slot already soid out?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 13, 2015, 08:46:22 AM
Please provide the source for the polls you cite so I can take a look at them, observe trend lines, etc.

Also, you cite NBC/WSJ on the negatives. Seems to me that many other polls are showing much less on negatives and many have him in positive territory. 

The bottom line is that if  Trump wins the primaries and has the most delegates, the GOP has a major problem. They give in to Trump and cede their control of the party to the common person. Or they deny Trump and the supporters of Trump leave the party for good.

Either way, the GOP as it stands today is over.  And that would be well deserved based upon the last two decades.

Yes, I have GDS. GOP Derangement Syndrome. And I have plenty of company.....

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 13, 2015, 08:59:43 AM
BTW, the NBC poll cites Cruz at 22% when the last 6 National Polls had him on average at 12%. 

Trump was at 27% with NBC, but the last 6 had Trump at 38%.

What gives?  (Besides the fact that NBC has consistently been lower than the other polls.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 13, 2015, 09:22:51 AM
"12 Hillary v. Trump polls since Oct. 1.  Hillary leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, even in 1."

"Please provide the source for the polls you cite so I can take a look at them, observe trend lines, etc."

It was a claim made this morning by one of the neutral, unbiased pundits like Karl Rove...  )   The source was the Real Clear poll tracking and averages.  Turns out Clinton wins 9 of the last 10.  I know, the 9 are flawed and the other one is accurate.   :wink:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

RCP Average   11/15 - 12/6   --   --   47.0   43.7   Clinton +3.3
USA Today/Suffolk   12/2 - 12/6   1000 LV   3.0   48   44   Clinton +4
CNN/ORC   11/27 - 12/1   930 RV   3.0   49   46   Clinton +3
Quinnipiac   11/23 - 11/30   1473 RV   2.6   47   41   Clinton +6
MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist   11/15 - 12/2   2360 RV   2.0   52   41   Clinton +11
FOX News   11/16 - 11/19   1016 RV   4.0   41   46   Trump +5
PPP (D)   11/16 - 11/17   1360 RV   2.7   45   44   Clinton +1
McClatchy/Marist   10/29 - 11/4   541 RV   4.2   56   41   Clinton +15
Quinnipiac   10/29 - 11/2   1144 RV   2.9   46   43   Clinton +3
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   10/25 - 10/29   847 RV   3.4   50   42   Clinton +8
CNN/ORC   10/14 - 10/17   956 RV   3.0   50   45   Clinton +5
------------------------

"What gives?"

We're going over the same ground but Trump is connecting strongly with a good number of people while strongly turning away too many others.

He doesn't know how to move higher (doesn't even want to at this point) and the others don't know how to take him out, much less how to do it without alienating his large number of supporters.
------------------------

On this day in the 2012 race, Newt was winning, FWIW.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 13, 2015, 10:07:47 AM
I prefer the Huffington Post which is tracking 33 different pollsters and not a selective few.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 13, 2015, 02:30:28 PM
I prefer the Huffington Post which is tracking 33 different pollsters and not a selective few.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary)

I didn't see any general election polling data at that link.  

Try this one:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
They have a wider margin against Trump than RCP.

HuffPost Model Estimate

  Hillary Clinton 47.5%
  Donald Trump 43.5%


Cruz fares even worse than Trump.  Rubio has the best chance of winning by their numbers.

At some point, winning is going to matter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 13, 2015, 03:40:48 PM
Thanks. I forgot to send you that link.

You are right about at some point, winning is the key. But first, it is getting the nomination. And I still believe that the GOP will manipulate things to go with Rubio.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 13, 2015, 05:46:56 PM
"At some point, winning is going to matter."

Which is why it is reasonable to prefer Rubio and to not regard it as a dastardly plot to want him to win.

Again, at the moment, my first choice is Cruz.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 13, 2015, 05:50:57 PM
Pat wrote:

"I see now that PAC reform is needed. The Citizen's United ruling though correct, left too many ways to exploit campaign laws."

Disagree completely.

SCOTUS has held  (Buckley v. Valeo?) that individuals cannot be blocked from spending their own money on their own speech.  Are you against this too?  Or only against others raising money to compete?

THANKS in great part to Citizens United, we now have the most competitive race any of us have ever seen.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 14, 2015, 06:07:50 AM
Hypothetical if this poll is true I would have to vote for Cruz.  He is not my first choice but he is acceptable.  Hillary is not.  I would MUCH rather have him and be more confident in keeping the crook out:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/poll-clinton-would-sail-to-win-over-trump/ar-BBnwdK8?li=BBnb7Kz
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 07:15:51 AM
I said PAC Reform.

Just look at the people behind each of the PACs. They are billionaires or half a billionaires who are throwing money around like candy. They have interests or businesses that are in real estate, oil and energy, financial and investment firms. Each benefits from government programs and all fall into the realm of chrony capitalists. Does anyone really believe that they are NOT buying the candidates with their PACs?

Worse, though the law does not allow it, they are actively working with the candidates campaigns. Have a rally in Texas? The PAC supporting the candidate puts it all together, pays most of the expenses, provides all types of other services.

Then you have the PACs that are supporting one candidate donating to another candidates cause so as to stop a third upsurgent candidate. The worst part is that with the PACs, additional contributors do not have to be identified. They remain hidden, as well as the amounts contributed.

Citizen's ruling was taken totally to the extreme with what could be done. Now there are no more rules. And the candidates are being totally bought off. If nothing is reformed, wait to see what happens in 2020.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 07:26:20 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CWJokdBUAAAE5R3.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 14, 2015, 08:46:04 AM
Pat wrote:
"I see now that PAC reform is needed. The Citizen's United ruling though correct, left too many ways to exploit campaign laws."

Disagree completely.

SCOTUS has held  (Buckley v. Valeo?) that individuals cannot be blocked from spending their own money on their own speech.  Are you against this too?  Or only against others raising money to compete?

THANKS in great part to Citizens United, we now have the most competitive race any of us have ever seen.


Yes,  Amen to that.  You have the right to pay for your own free speech and the right to support the candidate of your choice to carry your voice forward if you have free speech at all.  Did they need a separate amendment for political speech when it is already written so clearly in the first paragraph of the bill of rights?  We need to exercise that right vigorously to match the influence of our biased mainstream media, liberal colleges, schools and teachers unions exert in the process. 

Founders didn't say free speech with limits.

Two ways to fix the disproportionate influence of 'billionaires in the system without tromping on the constitution:
1)  If everyone who can afford to would put as much money into supporting freedom or tyranny as you pay for laundry soap, that message would get heard loud and clear over the so-called special interests.
2)  Vote for zero tolerance for the system of preferences in taxes, spending and regulations and the so-called big money will have nothing of interest to purchase.

BTW, Bush and Trump just proved that money isn't what buys votes.


CCP,  That poll like all the others says vote for Rubio if you want to win.

Pat,  Regarding the evil billionaires, what it is that Koch, Bramen Mercer, Adelson, Friess want for America that I don't want?  They don't really need government help at this point.  I notice that Mercer works in the low taxed hedge fund industry and Cruz wants low taxes for all.  Koch brothers have done mroe to support liberty than anyone I know.  Seems to me we need more billionaires and more of them to support freedom over tyranny.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 10:12:17 AM
Maybe it is because I have seen the influence that the banks and financial firms had and still have over government, using money to buy influence and then to get their own pet programs put into play. Then we see the results like the financial collapse.

Take Dodd Frank. The banks had a large amount of influence in it, and now we have TBTF fail banks and the local banks are disappearing. New banks? There has only been one created since Dodd Frank because it is now far too expensive to create a new bank. Meanwhile the Big 5 get even bigger.

What about Glass Steagal? That push by the banks and financial firms eliminated the lines between commercial and wholesale banks. This then led to the predatory lending practices, securitization and the ultimate Boom and Bust.

Obamacare? The Health Care industries even participated in writing the damned regulations. Look what has happened.

Just because the interests of the billionaires match yours does not always mean that they are good for the country. 

Star Chamber controlling the country and politicians through money?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 14, 2015, 10:15:07 AM
I mean these billionaires and these candidates...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 10:42:56 AM
And what makes them different than any others?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 10:48:11 AM
New  Monmouth Poll (which I have previously questioned their methodology)

Trump 41% up from 28%  in Oct 15 poll

Cruz 14% up from 10%

Carson 9% down from 18%

I need to check the methodology and compare to previous polls they have done. If there has been no change, then this is either an outlier with some unlucky statistical variation in calls, or else there is a strong movement to Trump.  Other polls this week will be very interesting.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 14, 2015, 10:55:35 AM
Skip it then.  I thought you were making a specific charge.

What makes it different it that our side does not want a system of spoils that is for sale to the high bidder.  We want a level playing field with all welcome to come out and work, save, invest, produce, etc.  This process is for figuring who will do that.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 14, 2015, 05:59:34 PM
Interesting article and perspective by an RNC delegate and North Dakota committeeman.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/14/gop-field-must-use-2016-to-force-conservative-primary-reform/ (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/14/gop-field-must-use-2016-to-force-conservative-primary-reform/)

He writes that the primaries should only be "beauty contests" and the RNC must save the Party from lo-info voters.   He admits that the rule changes in 2012 were to protect the Romney candidacy. And he does not to give up the power of the delegates to pick the candidate by primary results.

As he writes:

Quote
In short, the Progressive Republicans have attempted to transfer the act of official voting for the purpose of determining the party’s nominee from the convention delegates to the voters in primaries and caucuses.

This destruction of the rights of the Republican individuals who have succeeded in earning the high honor of becoming a delegate to the National Convention of their chosen party is unconscionable.

Each delegate to the Republican National Convention has a rules protected right and a constitutionally guaranteed right to vote their conscience on all matters that come before the convention.

Like the other First Amendment rights of freedom of speech and religion, the freedom to choose those with whom you associate politically carries with it the right to participate in the private affairs of that association without interference from the government or others who are not associated with you, such as non-Republican primary voters.

This only proves the arrogance of the GOPe and confirms to me that even if Trump wins all the primaries, he will not be the nominee.  lf this is the typical attitude of the RNC/GOP towards the base and those who vote in the primary, then the GOP and RNC can go to hell.

Let Hillary win.

Let it burn.

Title: Morris: Gun Control misfires for Dems
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 14, 2015, 06:03:01 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/shock-poll-gun-control-support-collapsing-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 15, 2015, 06:45:37 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/15/opinion/campaign-stops/is-it-ted-cruzs-party-or-marco-rubios.html?emc=edit_th_20151215&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 07:06:55 AM
More from the Convention article I posted above.

Hoaglund writes: 

Quote
In the 2000 National Convention, the order of the Rules of the Republican Party was inexplicably reversed.  Prior to 2000, the rules were in proper chronological order with the PROCEEDINGS OF NATIONAL CONVENTION first, then followed by THE RULES FOR THE ELECTION AND GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE until the next convention.

This subtle change gives the false impression that the rules printed AHEAD of the temporary rules for the next convention actually apply to the next convention!

They simply do not. The preamble is clear and unambiguous, even given the reversal of the rules order, where it states “…the following…are adopted as the Rules of the Republican Party, composed of the rules for the election and government of the Republican National Committee until the next national convention…” Keep in mind, these are the 2012 party rules.

In other words, the current Republican National Committee ceases to exist when the 2016 Republican National Convention convenes and, if re-authorized, a new Republican National Committee will re-organize following the convention to govern the party until the 2020 convention.

In short, the Progressive Republicans have attempted to transfer the act of official voting for the purpose of determining the party’s nominee from the convention delegates to the voters in primaries and caucuses.

This destruction of the rights of the Republican individuals who have succeeded in earning the high honor of becoming a delegate to the National Convention of their chosen party is unconscionable.

What the above section is saying (along with other portions of the article) all the current rules for the Convention ease to exist when the Convention opens and the delegates vote on new rules. So the delegates can change the rules to whatever they want and install whomever as their Dictator Nominee.

It also reveals the absolute DISDAIN that the delegates have for the party members and voters as a whole. They know better than everyone else and don't care what the primary voters want. If this is the type of party that the GOPe wants, then they can keep it.

If anyone other than the vote winner and delegate winner from the primary process is chosen, I will never vote for a major Pub candidate again. And as more Trumpkins see this, they will feel the same way.

The GOP deserves to go the way of the Whigs.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 07:22:00 AM
Here is another poll that is obviously flawed,,,,,,,it cannot be correct. It shows Trump at 38% and Cruz at 15% and is some rinky dinky outfit called ABC/WAPO.

Just can't be correct. 

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/presidential-candidates-abc-washington-post-12-12-15.jpg?w=1866&h=1797)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 15, 2015, 09:01:29 AM
BIG debate tonight.  Seems like no one is promoting it though I don't get cable so I guess I wouldn't know.

I hope they are able to delve into the issues that separate them without the distraction of questioner agenda and bias.  Also I hope they spend at least half their time emphasizing differences with Obama, Clinton and the status quo, not just picking at small differences with each other.

Hugh Hewitt is committed to asking tough foreign policy questions.  The liberals in charge will probably give him about 10 seconds to do that.

Watch for Trump to continue the attack on Cruz and look for a well-planned response from Cruz rising above that and talking to Trump's supporters instead of to Trump.  Look for Cruz and Rubio to go at it briefly.  I don't expect anything to get settled there, but maybe the differences are clarified.  Will Trump suddenly change tone and impersonate a reasonable, professional politician?  If so, will it hurt him?  Who will Christy take on to make himself relevant?  I predict he will follow one of the infighting episodes with a prosecutorial assault on Hillary's record on policy and her neglect of her national security responsibilities as his breakout moment.  I would like to see Rubio beat him to that punch.

What they say in the debates tends to be what we already heard them saying on the trail.  Only one or two things should surprise.

I think it is too late for Bush, Kasich, Paul, Huckabee or even Carson to make a ripple in the water, but we will see.

Between this debate and the holidays, those who know they can't win should throw in the towel.  Everyone is already calling this a 3 way race.  Let's reduce it to 4 or fewer soon.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 09:05:37 AM
None are going to throw in the towel until after the first four primaries. The "lure" of the campaign and the ego trip, plus the money, will not allow the losers to do so.

And Jeb? He is still the choice of the Party Rulers.  He can't give in.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 15, 2015, 12:07:17 PM
Carson has called for war to be declared by Congress against ISIS.  Interesting.

For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 01:15:43 PM
You mention first Carson, then Cruz. Is this a mistake or intended. 

Declaration of War by Congress?  Carson's lack of understanding scares the hell out of me.

Cruz is against involvement there.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 15, 2015, 02:24:19 PM
"For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,"

Please post Bret Stephens column today - The Cruz Imposture - if possible.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 03:19:17 PM
I would like to see it as well.............I saw it somewhere, but while posting here and getting my ass chewed, and then working on a lawsuit, I forgot where I saw it.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on December 15, 2015, 03:34:00 PM
"For the record, the more I learn about Cruz's weakness on military budget the more concerned I am about this aspect of his candidacy , , ,"

Please post Bret Stephens column today - The Cruz Imposture - if possible.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/14/a-stark-choice-ted-cruzs-jacksonian-americanism-vs-marco-rubios-wilsonian-internationalism/

A Stark Choice: Ted Cruz’s Jacksonian Americanism vs. Marco Rubio’s Wilsonian Internationalism

by STEPHEN K. BANNON & ALEXANDER MARLOW14 Dec 20152,396
I. A Tale of Two Candidates

Here’s a question: During the recent Libya coup—that is, the Obama administration-orchestrated effort to topple Muammar Qaddafi from power in 2011—which prominent American made the following statement:

When an American president says the guy needs to go, you better make sure that it happens because your credibility and your stature in the world is on the line.

Was it a) Hillary Clinton? b) John Kerry? c) Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)2%
?

And the answer is, it was none of them. It was d) Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79%
, quoted in The Weekly Standardon March 31, 2011. You know, the Senator from Florida. Yes, Rubio is a Republican, not normally thought of as a fan of Obama, but in this instance—and, as we shall see, in many other instances—he eagerly lined up behind Obama.

Lest there be any doubt as to Rubio’s Obamaphile views back in 2011, here’s how the Weekly Standard’s Stephen F. Hayes introduced the above-cited quote:

Senator Marco Rubio offered his full-throated support Wednesday for the U.S. intervention in Libya and called on President Barack Obama to be clear that regime change is the objective of America’s involvement.

Indeed, Rubio went further than just supporting Obama in this particular endeavor. He declared that it was vital that Obama succeed, so as to preserve “credibility”—that is, the credibility that Obama would need to launch future endeavors. As journalist Hayes, clearly a Rubio fan, explained four years ago,

In an interview yesterday afternoon, Rubio said that failing to remove Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, after Obama publicly called for him to go, would have grave consequences for America’s reputation in the region and in the world.

Although Obama, with the help of Rubio’s cheerleading, was successful in removing Qaddafi, as we know, the overall mission in Libya has not been so successful; the country has been in chaos ever since Qaddafi’s death. Indeed, it’s fair to say that the 2012 assassination of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans in Benghazi is the direct result of the Obama-Rubio intervention.

So why would Rubio be such a strong supporter of Obama on a key foreign-policy issue? That’s a good question, especially since Rubio is now running for president on a mostly anti-Obama platform.

So yes, by all means, let’s drill down on the question of how Rubio can support Obama so much on critical policy, even as he opposes him politically. We can ask: How does Rubio, in his own mind, make sense of that split?

The answer comes from a deep ideological current in American foreign policy, of which Rubio is a vital part. And this ideological current, as we shall see, elevates bipartisanship to near fetish-like status. Moreover, this current oftentimes seeks to subordinate, even ignore, America’s national interest—in favor, we might say, of abstract and arcane intellectual ideals. We will detail this ideology in Section II.

But first, another quote-quiz. Who said this, on December 5, about ISIS?

We will utterly destroy ISIS. We won’t weaken them. We won’t degrade them. We will utterly destroy them. We will carpet bomb them into oblivion. . . . We will do everything necessary so that every militant on the face of the earth will know if you go and join ISIS, if you wage jihad and declare war on America, you are signing your death warrant.

Who said that? Was it a) Donald Trump? Or b) the head of the Air Force’s Strategic Air Command? Or c) Bill O’Reilly, or some other tough-talker on Fox News?

Nope, it was d) Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97%
, campaigning in Des Moines, Iowa.

Thus we can see the contrast: While Rubio was talking about supporting Obama on a complicated mission that seemed—and seems—dubious to most Americans, Cruz was saying something much simpler: Kill the bad guys.

Indeed, Cruz is quite capable of expressing himself in such blunt terms. Yet, as we know, he is no simpleton: Once a national-champion debater, he went to Princeton and Harvard, and law-clerked for the Chief Justice of the United States, William Rehnquist. So his simple words represent a great deal of complicated thought; he, too, can cite a distinct political tradition, which we will come to in Section III.

So yes, we can marvel at the difference between Rubio and Cruz, even as we note their similarities: Both are Cuban-American first-term senators from the Sunbelt, both are 44 years old, and both are smart men. Indeed, both are uniquely articulate advocates for their very divergent foreign-policy traditions.

Rubio, as we shall see in the next section, is a passionate and devoted exponent of the well-established foreign-policy school known as Wilsonianism, which traces its origins back to our 28th President, Woodrow Wilson, who served from 1913 to 1921.

And Cruz, as we shall see in the third section, is an equally passionate and devoted exponent of a much less well-known foreign-policy school, Jacksonianism, which can be linked to our 7th President, Andrew Jackson, who served from 1829 to 1837.

The differences between the two men, Rubio and Cruz, are important, and they deserve our close attention; they speak volumes about the difference in the way they would conduct foreign policy in the White House.

 

II The Wilsonian Tradition

When we say that Rubio is a Wilsonian, we are simply noting that he has chosen to identify himself with a tradition that emphasizes the high-minded but forceful application of American power around the world, often aimed at advancing democracy and human rights. Wilson was a Democrat and a progressive, but at the same time, he was nothing like, say, George McGovern; McGovern was virtually a pacifist. No, Wilson was not a dove at all—he was perfectly willing to use American military power to achieve his idealistic goals.

Yet Wilson, nevertheless, was an idealist. The son of a Presbyterian minister, he was a brilliant Ph.D. student, then a professor at Princeton, then president of Princeton University. And after a brief stopover as governor of New Jersey, he was elected president of the United States in 1912.

In the White House, Wilson set about improving the world. He launched a series of armed interventions in Latin America and the Caribbean; as he declared in 1913, “I am going to teach the South American republics to elect good men.” That turned out to be an impossible mission, but his supporters admired and revered him for his devotion to duty as he saw it—even as critics derided him as a messianic zealot.

Yet the signature aspect of Wilson’s presidency, and of Wilsonianism as we know it today, was a seeming twist on the use of American power: We should use force, but we should not cheer for it, nor wave the flag on its behalf. And that’s what distinguishes Wilsonianism from plain old patriotic nationalism; that’s what makes it so counter-intuitive to Americans. Indeed, this element of Wilsonian policy was, and is, deeply confusing to the average American. Nevertheless, for nearly a century now, leading American intellectuals have loved it—perhaps, in its disdain for traditional patriotic trappings, because it is so different from conventional thinking.

Indeed, we can observe that Wilsonianism, shorn of traditional patriotism, even during wartime, is deeply appealing to elites, here and around the world. That is, the class that is normally embarrassed by patriotic displays usually loves Wilsonianism—because it seems to be higher, more cerebral, more intellectual. Without a doubt, Wilsonianism has snob-appeal.

Yet the yawning gap between elite Wilsonianism and mass-appeal patriotism can make Wilsonianism problematic politically.

The ordinary American, for example, might think that it’s a good idea for the US to win its wars and that it’s an equally good idea to rally ‘round the flag in wartime. Yet Wilsonians tend to have a different view. Back in 1917, President Wilson offered this curious articulation of US war aims in World War One: Yes, America should fight against the Kaiser, and yes, the goal was a military triumph—but the ultimate goal, Wilson told Congress and the country, was “peace without victory.” In other words, American doughboys should fight and die in France, but they shouldn’t savor the patriotic and nationalistic pleasures of such victory.

Yes, you read that right: Wilson wanted to win, but he didn’t want Americans to feel triumphant. He felt that excessive nationalism here in the US would make it harder to build the post-war multilateral peace that he hoped to achieve with the League of Nations, the forerunner to the United Nations.

Wilson’s vision was noble, many thought. And the president himself was astonishingly articulate and erudite. Moreover, he was acutely conscious of doing the right thing, as he saw it. He once said, “Tell me what is right and I will fight for it.” But of course, most of the time, Wilson already knew what was right, or at least he thought he did. And that’s one more reason why his adherents love him: To this day, he epitomizes the I’d-rather-be-right-than-popular spirit that animates many intellectuals.

And so, in the minds of his brainy supporters, it didn’t really matter that the average American didn’t quite get Wilsonianism; indeed, public confusion about Wilsonianism was something of a badge of honor—that is, proof that the Wilsonians were a higher species than mere Americans and their “boorish” values and folkways.

And yet because Wilsonianism was so difficult for the masses to comprehend, it wasn’t particularly popular. As noted here at Breitbart, Wilson’s idealistic vision foundered on the rocks of reality; in the 1918 midterm elections, just days before the Allied victory in the Great War, the opposition Republicans won the Congress, turning out Wilson’s Democrats. And in 1919-20, the roof caved in on the Wilson administration and its grand plans for a new architecture of international organizations.

Yet even so, Wilsonianism has been a strong strain of foreign-policy thinking ever since; the elites seem perpetually entranced by the idea that they are leading America on some grand national mission, the full complexity of which only they can understand.

Nevertheless, even if the details of Wilsonianism are hard to understand, the broad outlines of the doctrine easily lend themselves to sweeping statement. President John F. Kennedy, for example, was an unabashed fan of his predecessor; his 1961 Inaugural address was ringingly Wilsonian, as when he famously declared,

We shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.

Kennedy’s warmed-over Wilsonianism quickly ran into difficulty in Vietnam, but even so, everybody knows JFK’s famous speech.

Meanwhile, over the last half-century, old-style Wilsonianism has easily blended with a newer dogma, “neoconservatism.”

The neoconservatives, too, are eager to use military force around the world, and they, too, tend to express their policy objectives in non-nationalistic terms. To the neocons, the key issue isn’t that America should win, it’s that America should be right.

And so it is right, for example, that America should advance democracy and freedom around the world. Yet, as we have seen, this emphasis on changing the hearts and minds of foreigners—that is, getting them to embrace democracy and freedom—is far more difficult than merely winning a war. If the goal is simply to kill the other guy, the US military can do that. But if the goal is to transform the thinking of the other guy, well, that’s not what they teach at West Point.

Yet once again, the neoconservatives tend to see American power in abstract terms that oftentimes skip over practical difficulties, including the matter of costs. And interestingly, not all neoconservatives are, in fact, conservative.

For example, in 1996, Bill Clinton’s future Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, challenged then-General Colin Powell to answer her question about the looming commitment of US ground troops, simply for the purpose of helping to liberate Muslims in Kosovo and the Balkans. “What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about,” she asked Powell, “if we can’t use it?” In his memoir, Powell wrote that when he heard Albright’s words, he feared that he was going to have an “aneurysm”; “American GIs,” he added, “are not toy soldiers to be moved around on some global game board.”

Yes, Powell, who served two combat tours in Vietnam, had strong feelings about civilians who would over-use US troops in willy-nilly missions. In his mind, the only valid reason for using the US military was to protect the national interest—and he did not see the US national interest at risk in the former Yugoslavia. But Albright and her boss, President Bill Clinton, saw things differently; to them, helping the Muslims in Southern Europe was a wonderful idea.

Interestingly, back then, in the mid-90s, Albright and Clinton had the strong support of many prominent neoconservatives, including Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)36%
, the editorial writers at The Wall Street Journal, and William Kristol, publisher of The Weekly Standard—the publication that would later admiringly extoll Marco Rubio.

Again, thinking back to the Clinton administration’s Balkan intervention, we are reminded that Wilsonian neoconservatism typically transcends party, as well as patriotism. That is, Wilsonian goals—starting with saving the world—are seen as larger than any mere parochial concern.

So Bill Clinton, the former McGovernite, who actively avoided the draft during the Vietnam era, sprouted into a Wilsonian as president; one could even say he was sort of a neoconservative. In fact, one of the strengths of Wilsonian neoconservatism is that it has a left wing, as well as a right wing. So Bill Clinton was a left-wing neocon, and his successor in the White House, George W. Bush, was a right-wing neocon.

And of course, Bush, who fused his right-wing Wilsonianism with Christian zeal, was infinitely more energetic and ambitious for his ideas than Clinton had been.

Indeed, after 9/11, Bush seemed to think he had a God-given chance to remake the world. And so, as a savvy politician, he was willing to play somewhat to nationalist passions in the wake of the attacks on America; yet ultimately, his Wilsonianism got the best of him. And as a result, he himself chose to communicate in the abstract language of Wilsonianism, fortified with his own born-again Christian theology.

So, on September 17, 2001, Bush assured Americans that “Islam is peace.” Those words must have been confusing to ordinary Americans, who knew that, just six days earlier, Islamic radicals had killed 3,000 of their fellow citizens.

So as a result, as was the case with Wilson nearly a century before, Bush was perfectly willing to send Americans to fight and die for fuzzy abstractions. We might note, in contrast, that during World War Two, Admiral Halsey had told his warriors in the Pacific, “Kill Japs, kill Japs, kill more Japs”; those were not politically correct words, but they encouraged our fighting men to kill, and thus defeat, the enemy. On the other hand, Bush was making the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan much harder: The mission was never just to kill the enemy; instead, it was to win the enemy over to our way of thinking.

As Bush said in his second inaugural address in 2005, it wasn’t enough for America militarily to defeat the terrorists; instead, we had to bring the terrorists, or at least their societies, around to our point of view. As the re-elected president said:

The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world.

In other words, Bush was setting a high, even impossible, standard. Our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan couldn’t just kill bad guys; instead, they had to fight to expand freedom. So US warriors, trained in the art of kinetic warfare, had, instead, to become warriors for polemic ideology. We can recall that neoconservative intellectuals, well versed in the fine points of argumentation, adored Bush’s message—although the average American still simply scratched his or her head.

Indeed, at the time, back in 2005, Peggy Noonan spoke for many when she published an opinion piece, bluntly titled, “Way Too Much God.” If Noonan, a devout Catholic and one of the more visible champions of religion in the public square, thought that Bush had gotten carried away—well, she undoubtedly spoke for most Americans. Here’s how she put it:

The administration’s approach to history is at odds with what has been described by a communications adviser to the president as the “reality-based community.” A dumb phrase, but not a dumb thought: He meant that the administration sees history as dynamic and changeable, not static and impervious to redirection or improvement. That is the Bush administration way, and it happens to be realistic: History is dynamic and changeable, not static and impervious to redirection or improvement. . . . On the other hand, some things are constant, such as human imperfection, injustice, misery and bad government. This world is not heaven.

No, the world is not heaven. And in fact, it’s heresy to think that this world can be made perfect. But Bush, suffering from what Noonan called “mission inebriation”—her play on “mission creep”—had lost his once-sound perspective.

Thus the American people felt they had no choice but to restrain Bush’s remake-the-world impulses at the ballot box. And so in the 2006 midterm elections, voters put the Democrats back in charge of the House and Senate, and in 2008, they gave the Democrats another big victory in Congress, as well as dramatically awarding the White House to Barack Obama. With the benefit of hindsight, we might say that the voters made a mistake with Obama, but at the time, in their defense, Obama was an unknown, and Bush—and his anointed would-be successor, John McCain—were all too well known.

So George W. Bush’s right-wing Wilsonianism, or neoconservatism—like Woodrow Wilson’s left-wing Wilsonianism nine decades earlier—was soundly rejected at the polls.

Yet, as Obama has proven to be such a huge failure, we can observe that Bush 43 has made something of a comeback. Indeed, in contrast to the foreign-policy mess that we have now, even Bush’s neocon Wilsonianism has started to look pretty good.

In fact, given that the neocons, as a group, are not only highly academically credentialed, but also wealthy, we can see why an ambitious fellow such as Rubio would seek to come climbing onto their bandwagon.

So Rubio might think that he has chosen well. In embracing Wilsonian neoconservatism, he instantly found his speeches lauded by neocon pundits, and his campaign coffers filled by neocon donors—so what’s not to like?

As a result, Rubio was soon positioned as the Great Neocon Hope for the next presidential election. On October 6, 2014, National Review’s Eliana Johnson published an important piece, entitled, “The Neocons Return: Meet their 2016 candidate, Marco Rubio.” And there, big as life, was a picture of Rubio. As Johnson wrote,

Since his election four years ago, the first-term senator has consistently articulated a robust internationalist position closest to that of George W. Bush.

She added:

Rubio’s views are strikingly similar to those that guided George W. Bush as he began navigating the post-9/11 world.

So of course, Rubio supported Obama and Hillary on Libya and Syria. Wilson, too, as well as Bush 43, would have done no less.

Yet we can observe that one of the problems of Wilsonianism/neoconservatism is that in its ideological enthusiasm for remaking the world, it tends to be oblivious to such “small” issues as homeland security and border security. That is, in the minds of the Wilsonians, we should think macro, not micro. Up there in the Olympian heights, the best and the brightest should think about solving the world’s problems, not just tending to America’s little garden.

So yes, in the big-thinking minds of the Wilsonians, traditional American nationalism must yield to high-brow internationalism. After all, the thought-process seems to be, how can one let oneself get lost in the weeds of mere national self-interest, when the fate of the world is at stake?

Thus we come to a vital tool in the Wilsonian “arsenal”: immigration.

To the Wilsonian neocons, immigration to the US is indeed crucial. That is, if the issue is saving the world—and it always is—then part of the save-the-world plan means accommodating, and welcoming, refugee flows.

Yes, refugees from Somalia, Syria, anywhere—they all must come here, so that the US can “show leadership.” That is, we must take immigrants by the thousands, even millions, as a way of pointing other countries, as well, to the virtuous path. And in this way, the Wilsonian thinking goes, America will save the world.

Thus it should come as no surprise that National Review’s Johnson reports that one of Rubio’s mentors is former Bush 43 national-security adviser Stephen Hadley. In the White House, Hadley was a champion of open borders, and just recently, he signed a letter with 19 other foreign policy savants, from both parties, calling for the US to take in Syrian refugees.

Hadley and his fellow Wilsonians seem unable to come to grips with the nagging reality that Uncle Sam does a relentlessly poor job at “vetting.” As The New York Times reported on Saturday, Tafsheen Malik, one-half of the San Bernardino shooting couple, was open about her Islamic zealotry on social media. Yet even so, she passed no fewer than three “background checks.” Most likely, Hadley & Co. don’t really care about background checks: Yes, there will be some tragedies inflicted on Americans as a result of mass immigration, but the internationalist foreign-policy experts see a “greater good” that transcends mere Americans and their petty preoccupation with not getting shot.

In addition, the Wilsonians, always seeking to advance their doctrine of remaking the world, tend to have another troublesome blind spot: To them, concerns over national character and identity are just so much benighted “oldthink.”

That is, as a matter of ideology, the neoconservatives just can’t bring themselves to acknowledge that one culture is different from another culture, and thus, maybe, they shouldn’t be blended together suddenly, as happens with a huge refugee influx. Indeed, that happens to be common sense to traditional conservatives, but to the neoconservatives, well, such thinking is not allowed.

Here we might pause to note that such “post-nationalist” thinking is one reason why the Wilsonian neoconservatives tend to retain substantial support from the political left; as noted, there are left-neocons, as well as right-neocons.

Many progressives, in other words, admire the Wilsonians for their willingness to forsake the normal trappings of conservatism, such as national security and national sovereignty. In the minds of liberals, if the Wilsonians are willing to abandon patriotism and the the preservation of national identity, then they can’t be all bad.

And that’s a further reason why open borders is such a key element of neoconservative thinking: It unites the parties.

We might recall that George W. Bush was a champion of “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.” Today, leading neocons, including McCain and his senatorial colleague, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)38%
 of South Carolina, are staunch supporters not only of expanded refugee programs, but also of “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.”

And that’s why critics have summed up neocon policy as, “Invade the world/ Invite the world.”

But of course, the neocons would never let a low variable such as public opinion get in the way of their grand plan.

And so, in keeping with state-of-the-art Wilsonian thinking, back in 2013, Marco Rubio was a strong supporter of the “Gang of Eight” immigration reform, alongside such prominent Democrats as Sen. Chuck Schumer.

And although Rubio has supposedly backed off from the idea over the last two years, asBreitbart’s Julia Hahn has noted, the Florida Senator continues to push Gang of Eight talking points. Indeed, it’s perfectly fair to say that, were he to be elected president, he would resume the push for “comprehensive immigration reform,” aka, “amnesty.”

Indeed, Rubio has never stopped seeking to advance Wilsonian causes. Here, for example, is Rubio looking for new places to give away foreign aid money, in a speech to the liberal Brookings Institution on April 25, 2012:

In every region of the world, we should always search for ways to use U.S. aid and humanitarian assistance to strengthen our influence, the effectiveness of our leadership, and the service of our interests and ideals.

And just two months later, in June 2012, Rubio expressed his strong support for Obama’s Syria policy, which was indeed a half-hearted attempt to replicate the Libya coup. In his favorite publication, The Wall Street Journal, under the bold headline, “Assad’s Fall Is In America’s Interests,” Rubio wrote,

Empowering and supporting Syria’s opposition today will give us our best chance of influencing it tomorrow, to ensure that revenge killings are rare in a post-Assad Syria and that a new government follows a moderate foreign policy.

Of course, some have said that the Wilsonians are now biting off more than they can chew. One observer here at Breitbart has noted that the Wilsonians don’t seem disciplined when it comes to limiting American commitments. In other words, is it really possible that the US, with about 21 percent of the world’s economic output, and with less than five percent of the world’s population, can really do it all? The Breitbart author mocked the left-Wilsonians of the Obama administration for their attempted five-way containment:

So there we have it: the Quintuple Containment: The US seeking to contain Russia, China, Iran, terror, and the equally dreaded threat of climate change.

We might note that the right-Wilsonians of the Republican Party are more limited in their ambitions; they mostly disdain “climate change.” So for them, America need undertake only a quadruple containment, albeit with more military force applied to each of the remaining four objectives.

And yet we would do well to remember that Wilsonians of both stripes, right and left, put a huge premium on bipartisanship—so who can say for sure that Republican neocons, after all, wouldn’t yet be sucked into a deal on that fifth “threat,” namely “climate change”?

Again, we must remember that bipartisanship is a siren song to Wilsonians. That’s one reason why, for example, Sen. Joe Lieberman, Democrat of Connecticut, was such a hero to Republicans. Toward the end of his career, Lieberman was really a “DINO”—Democrat In Name Only—yet even so, Wilsonian neocon Republicans, hungering always for bipartisan cred, continued to trumpet Lieberman as a D.

Thus, because bipartisanship is so important to the neoconservatives, one can never say that Republican Wilsonians wouldn’t be interested, after all, in a “climate change” deal if they thought it would bring in Democratic support on other policy objectives. And by the same token, Democratic Wilsonians, who are totally obsessed with “climate change,” might find themselves supporting wars they wouldn’t otherwise support—if it could mean “building bridges” with Republican Wilsonians on stopping CO2.

Indeed, such bridge-building was the subtext of a remarkable joint opinion piece in the December 9 Politico, co-signed by Danielle Pletka, a neoconservative at the American Enterprise Institute, and Brian Katulis, a liberal at the Center for American Progress. In the piece, Pletka and Katulis, good Wilsonians both, lamented the “worrisome bipartisan crisis of U.S. leadership in the world.” And so the two, one on the left, one on the right, proposed to fix that policy gap, with a plan for collaborative action, starting with the US taking in more—many more—refugees. As Pletka and Katulis wrote, in words that must be cheering to the next Tafsheen Malik who wishes to come here and kill Americans,

Calls to close America’s doors to refugees risk undermining who we are as a nation. Instead of slipping into fearful isolationism, Republicans and Democrats should dedicate their efforts to enhancing the background checks on refugees fleeing conflict. This is eminently doable, and there is ample room for the Obama administration to negotiate a reliable system with Congressional leaders. At minimum, we should strive to achieve the Obama administration’s target goal of admitting 10,000 refugees from Syria in the next fiscal year.

And then, Pletka and Katulis added the usual ringing Wilsonian rhetoric:

Why do it? Because we are the richest and freest country in the world. If we lack the moral fortitude to dedicate resources to screen and admit those fleeing the horror of war, we cannot ask other countries to do the same.

That’s Wilsonianism for you: The national interest must come in second to the international interest. And out of that fusion, left and right, it’s not hard to see that the left-Wilsonians could talk the right-Wilsonians into a deal on “climate change.” And so both kinds of Wilsonians would be pulling in the same harness, leading America to oppose all the world’s bad guys and solve all the world’s problems.

 

III. The Jacksonian Tradition

But of course, not everyone in America is a Wilsonian. There are other traditions, too, in US foreign policy. Two other traditions are Jeffersonian and Hamiltonianism. We can look quickly at both:

The Jeffersonian tradition, of course, is named after Thomas Jefferson, our Third President. It is, in a word, liberal: George McGovern, whom we met earlier, qualifies as a Jeffersonian. To be sure, an historical purist might say that the real Jefferson, in the White House, wasn’t so liberal; after all, he started West Point, defeated the Barbary Pirates, and doubled the size of the US with the Louisiana Purchase. And yet even so, his writings—mostly from the period before he became president—have deeply inspired liberals, libertarians, and other peaceniks. Today, one might be tempted to think of Obama as being in this category, although it would seem, perhaps, that he is too quick to order drone strikes to be a true Jeffersonian. So we might count Obama as a diffident and uncertain Wilsonian; he might seem hesitant and incompetent, although in the end, he is perfectly willing to kill to achieve his policy ends.

As for the Hamiltonian tradition, it comes to us from Alexander Hamilton, our first treasury secretary. The Hamiltonians were, and are, commerce-minded. So when President Coolidge said, “The business of America is business,” that was a great statement of the Hamiltonian credo. A Hamiltonian today, for example, would be strongly in favor of lower taxes, and would also would likely support the Ex-Im Bank. Yet even as Hamiltonianism enjoys a revival on, of all places, Broadway, it’s easy for critics to make fun of “money-grubbing” Hamiltonians. And so while Hamiltonianism has arguably been the default position of the United States throughout its history, it is usually submerged behind one of the other two traditions, Wilsonianism and Jeffersonianism.

So having identified three traditions—Wilsonianism, Jeffersonianism, and Hamiltonianism—we can now espy a fourth, Jacksonianism. If the first category, Wilsonianism, seems best to describe Marco Rubio, it’s this fourth category, Jacksonianism, that seems best to describe Ted Cruz.

So what is Jacksonianism? Although the impulse goes back centuries, the name itself traces only to 1999, when political scientist Walter Russell Mead laid it out in a 13,000-word article in The National Interest. Mead, at the time a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, outlined this fourth tradition, “a warrior tradition,” in honor of Andrew Jackson, our Seventh President, who served in the White House from 1829 to 1837.

Jackson was Scots-Irish, a people whom Mead accurately described as “hardy and warlike,” toughened by life on the frontier. Thus we might say that Jacksonianism is all about ferocity in war.

Just as Jackson himself gained personal power in the early 19th century, so did his “ism,” because, frankly, Jacksonianism is useful in winning wars. And we have had lots of wars that we had to win.

To illustrate the Jacksonian approach to war-fighting, Mead recalled a moment in World War Two in which US armed forces inflicted staggering civilian casualties on Japan—and this was before the A-bomb. As Mead notes, “In the last five months of World War II, American bombing raids claimed the lives of more than 900,000 Japanese civilians.” He zeroes in on one particular date:

On one night, that of March 9-10, 1945, 234 Superfortresses dropped 1,167 tons of incendiary bombs over downtown Tokyo; 83,793 Japanese bodies were found in the charred remains—a number greater than the 80,942 combat fatalities that the United States sustained in the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined.

We can look back and ask: Were we too tough on the Japanese? And that’s a question that Jeffersonians, or Hamiltonians, or even Wilsonians, might ask—but not the Jacksonians. The Jacksonians weren’t the least bit apologetic; in their tough martial worldview, the Japanese needed killin’, and that was all there was to it. Our 34th President, Harry Truman, of Independence, Mo., the man who dropped the A-bomb on Japan, was a Jacksonian. And so it might not be a surprise that Truman was once the Presiding Judge (the equivalent of county executive) of Jackson County, Mo.—which was named, of course, after Andrew Jackson.

In his essay, Mead was moved to observe that this militarily tough tradition simply could not be ignored:

The American war record should make us think. An observer who thinks of American foreign policy only in terms of the commercial realism of the Hamiltonians, the crusading moralism of Wilsonian transcendentalists, and the supple pacifism of the principled but slippery Jeffersonians would be at a loss to account for American ruthlessness at war.

Indeed, surveying Andrew Jackson’s war record, we can see that he left a large impression in US history. Old Hickory, as he was called, was famously brave, famously effective, and famously ferocious—beating Indians and the British, both. His victory at the Battle of New Orleans in 1815 was the greatest American victory in The War of 1812. And a century-and-a-half later, it was still being celebrated; in 1958, the country & western singer Johnny Horton released a Top-40 pop song about the battle.

So yes, even though Jackson, unlike Wilson, was neither a scholar nor a speechmaker, he nevertheless created a tradition. As Mead noted,

Once wars begin, a significant element of American public opinion supports waging them at the highest possible level of intensity. The devastating tactics of the wars against the Indians, General Sherman’s campaign of 1864-65, and the unprecedented aerial bombardments of World War II were all broadly popular in the United States. During both the Korean and Vietnam Wars, presidents came under intense pressure, not only from military leaders but also from public opinion, to hit the enemy with all available force in all available places.

And yet still, if the Jacksonian tradition is less known, well, there’s a reason for that—the Jacksonians aren’t writers:

A principal explanation of why Jacksonian politics are so poorly understood is that Jacksonianism is less an intellectual or political movement than an expression of the social, cultural and religious values of a large portion of the American public. And it is doubly obscure because it happens to be rooted in one of the portions of the public least represented in the media and the professoriat. Jacksonian America is a folk community with a strong sense of common values and common destiny; though periodically led by intellectually brilliant men—like Andrew Jackson himself—it is neither an ideology nor a self-conscious movement with a clear historical direction or political table of organization.

So Mead, himself from South Carolina, which was also Jackson’s home state, took it upon himself to identify the key elements of the “Jacksonian Code”: These were, honor, self-reliance, and military meritocracy. As Mead put it, Jacksonians enjoy “a love affair with weapons.” And oh yes, he concludes, “Finally, courage is the crowning and indispensable part of the Code.”

So we can see, clearly, that Jacksonianism is a good deal different from Wilsonianism; to quote Mead again:

Jacksonian patriotism is not a doctrine but an emotion, like love of one’s family. The nation is an extension of the family. Members of the American folk are bound together by history, culture and a common morality.

In other words, Jacksonianism, based on the ties that bind kith and kin, is light-years away from the austere abstractions of Wilsonianism.

Needless to say, the Jacksonian spirit is big in in places such as Houston—which happens to be Ted Cruz’s hometown.

So let’s talk more about Cruz. Yes, Cruz is an Ivy Leaguer—he went to Princeton, in fact, the same as Wilson—but then, not every Ivy Leaguer comes away with Ivy League values; we might note that Mead went to Yale, and yet he freely volunteers in his National Interest essay that he is a fan of the Jacksonians. Why? Because, as he says, it’s better to win wars than lose them. And Jacksonians, in their single-minded focus on killing the enemy, are good at winning.

And Cruz, too, has that same keep-it-simple spirit. Whereas the Wilsonians are all about trying to master the nuances of the Middle East—never mind that they have never come close to doing so—the Jacksonians see things in starker, and sharper, terms. As Cruz says of Syria,

Instead of getting in the middle of a civil war in Syria, where we don’t have a dog in the fight, our focus should be on killing ISIS.

Yes, when Cruz argues for killing ISIS, he is talking like a Jacksonian.

Let others worry about democracy and human rights and all that jazz; Cruz’s view is, if they need to killed, then they need to be killed. Otherwise, let’s not worry about them.

Indeed, Cruz doesn’t seem the least bit interested in bringing “democracy” to such benighted countries as Iraq or Syria. The Texan is obviously passionate about constitutional democracy for Americans, and for others who yearn for it, but unlike, say, Bush 43, he doesn’t seek to impose “democracy” on hostile peoples at gunpoint.

 

IV The Wilsonian vs. Jacksonian Tradition in 2016

So we can see the gap between Rubio and the Wilsonians, and Cruz and the Jacksonians. On the one side, Rubio is channeling neoconservatism; on the other side, Cruz is channeling Jacksonian Americanism.

To look at the matter more deeply, we might even say that the Wilsonian neoconservatives have a stubborn belief in the perfectibility of man, whereas, by contrast, the Jacksonians have the more orthodox Christian view: We live in a fallen world, and, as the philosophers say, out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.

Of course, other factors, too, are likely at play. For example, Marco Rubio’s campaign seems to be extraordinarily well-funded; he won the endorsement, for instance, of Paul Singer, the New York City-based billionaire who combines support for gay marriage, open borders, and Israel into one juicy check-writing package.

To be sure, Rubio is free to seek out support wherever he can, but others are equally free to criticize; in October, Donald Trump tweeted out a jeering reference to Rubio’s relationship to another one of the Republican Party’s biggest donors:

Sheldon Adelson is looking to give big dollars to Rubio because he feels he can mold him into his perfect little puppet. I agree!

Of course, Rubio also has his ardent supporters. The Wall Street Journal editorial page, for example, is solidly in his corner. Yes, that page has made quite an ideological odyssey over the last few decades; in the 70s and 80s, when many believe it was at the height of its influence, the Journal edit page was virtually single-minded in its support for supply-side economics. Yet more recently, while still supporting free markets, it has become preoccupied with neoconservative foreign policy—which is great news for a neocon such as Rubio. Yet others have noticed this shift as well, and so the Journal’s impact has been diminished. As Cruz himself said recently, the Journal should change its name to “The Marco Rubio for President Newspaper.”

In fact, even outside of the Journal, the split between Rubio and Cruz has become evident. Under the headline, “Marco Rubio Gets Benghazi’d By Ted Cruz,” TalkingPointsMemo quoted Cruz as saying, “Senator Rubio emphatically supported Hillary Clinton in toppling [Muammar] Qaddafi in Libya. I think that made no sense.” Cruz added, “The terrorist attack that occurred in Benghazi was a direct result of that massive foreign policy blunder.”

Moreover, Cruz opened up on the Wilsonian neocons:

If you look at President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and for that matter some of the more aggressive Washington neocons, they have consistently mis-perceived the threat of radical Islamic terrorism and have advocated military adventurism that has had the effect of benefiting radical Islamic terrorists.

As the late Sen. Strom Thurmond liked to say, that puts the hay down where the horse can get it.

Yet Cruz had more to say on the topic. As the Texan told Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle on December 11:

On foreign policy, Sen. Rubio’s foreign policy judgments have been consistently wrong. When Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton made the decision to intervene in Libya, to topple Qaddafi, Sen. Rubio chose once again to stand with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. … And the result of that was that Libya was handed over to radical Islamic terrorists and is now a chaotic war zone of battling Islamists. And that is much, much worse for U.S. national security. The tragedy at Benghazi, four Americans murdered including the first American ambassador to be killed in the line of duty since the 1970s under Jimmy Carter, the tragedy of Benghazi was the direct result of the failed foreign policy in Libya that was championed by Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and supported by Marco Rubio.

To be sure, Rubio has his responses to Cruz, but the plain fact remains: Rubio supported Obama and Clinton on Libya. Moreover, Rubio supported Obama and Clinton on Syria, too. That’s what Wilsonians do: They support whoever is in charge, regardless of party, if the issue is the use of force to “do good” overseas.

And so, for example, we can fully expect that left-Wilsonians—for example, Brian Katulis, whom we cited earlier, in league with the right-Wilsonian Danielle Pletka—would happily support a President Rubio on some new round of foreign-policy adventurism. And as we already know, Katulis-type Democrats stand ready to support a President Rubio in the cause of opening up America’s border to new immigrants—including, one supposes, the next Tafsheen Malik.

So as we have seen, Rubio’s invade-the-world-invite-the-world ideology is perfectly consistent with the Wilsonian tradition.

What remains to be seen, however, is whether or not the Republican Party, which is increasingly enamored of Trump-Cruz-type Jacksonian Americanism, is interested in seeing the elite Wilsonian internationalists regain power—so that they can continue their mission of saving the world.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 07:22:56 PM
Idiots with the debate.

1. Take out Hassad in Syria and it will be more stable. Try another Libya.

2. Bomb ISIS with only a few Spec Forces on the ground.  Air power does not win wars.

3. Be nice and avoid killing family members. No collateral damage.  Maybe we can also pay them for their losses of their terrorist family members.

4. Have a no fly zone in Syria.  ISIS does not have aircraft. Who are they trying to stop?  This is cold war surrogate parties.

5. Jeb is so desperate, attacking Trump every second. And he started to lie on his stance with immigration. His "anger" looks almost deranged.

6. Audience needs to shut up.

7. Christie now for the No Fly Zone and challenging Russia.  "That is not reckless."

8. No one in the audience realizes that we can stop other countries internet.

9. CNN trying to knock out Trump. 

10. Jeb deranged. Trump lets him have it. I am at 42%, you are at 3%.

11. Trump even smacked down the audience.  :-D  Now he goes after CNN.....every question to others, Trump said this. Trump said that.

12. Say goodbye Carson.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
Great line by Cruz.

I will build a wall and I will get Trump to pay for it.

Trump says..........I will do it.


Rubio trying to hide his position on Amnesty. Trying to also claim Cruz was for Amnesty also.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 15, 2015, 08:49:02 PM
Trump: What's a nuclear triad?
I just know nuclear is big. Really big.
What we really need is somebody who knows what he's doing.

The early group got something right and Carson touched on it.
To take down a Caliphate, you take back the land.  Shrink the territory to nothing.

Christy said Rubio has this right.  Rubio had a good night.  Showed a mastery of knowledge on foreign policy.  Too bad for him that Trump and Cruz didn't want to fight each other.

Metadata, all 4 in the early debate seemed to back the security side over alleged privacy.  It was well explained.  As they look at the numbers that a terror nukmber contacted, they don't see names until it goes further and they hit something of interest.  Cruz is pretty much alone over on the Rand Paul side of this.  Rubio answered Cruz that the new legislation doesn't give them any new capability they didn't already have.

Carly was right that the larger question is why didn't they discover the Boston brothers or the San Bern. couple.  It's the algorythm.  We aren't looking at the right things.  Our government lags behind the terrorists.  Need to ask for private sector help.

Trump was Trump, a little subdued.  Sounded petty in his fight with Jeb but nothing worse than usual for both of them.  Trump didn't help or hurt himself, still in first place in nomination race, last in the general.

Cruz still not showing himself to be a national champion debater.  Good but not better than his main competitors.
A couple of times Cruz wouldn't stop talking.  Awkward moments on one in particular.

Carson was good but not enough to catch his fall.  It will be interesting to see if anyone in the polls liked Christy.

Fiorina was good in her way, not enough to move up.  Early group ditto.  Bush, best night yet, won't move up.

Conclusion:   Nothing changed.  All the same dynamics we have discussed govern this race.

Next polls will be roughly same.  Then in January this gets serious.  Trump shows he can win the general or people look for who can.

Still waiting for big gaffes or personal failings discovered.  Not much of that this election other than Hillary.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 15, 2015, 08:56:16 PM
Agreed.

What is funny is that it is easy to see that Trump is totally in  Jeb's head. Jeb just goes nuts and can't think or speak straight, he is so flustered.

Carly was the Snarly Ex Wife much of the time.

You are right that Trump probably did not understand TRIAD.

Take back the land to win, that is correct. But who has the will for Jacksonian warfare. And that is what it will take. Interesting reading the article on Wilsonian and Jacksonian warfare, and then watching the debate. You could see the difference. Though I still think that most of them would start WW III.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 15, 2015, 09:16:56 PM
"What is funny is that it is easy to see that Trump is totally in  Jeb's head. Jeb just goes nuts and can't think or speak straight, he is so flustered."

He just can't believe this (Trump 41, Bush 3) is happening.  Bush was irrelevant. Moderators put him in the middle of it by setting up that fight.  By fighting Trump he gets the automatic reply.  He is, after all, a two term Governor.  Of course, so is Kasich, and Huckabee, and Petaki, and Walker, and Jindal, and Rick Perry.

Rubio says we need more tools to fight terrorism, not less tools.

For the second time, that would be, not fewer tools.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 15, 2015, 09:30:23 PM
Trump keeps looking better and better. Nice showing tonight.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 15, 2015, 11:42:37 PM
My snap impressions:

My understanding is that the significance of the no fly zone is that ASSAD has an airforce that fux badly with the opposition and by so doing is a major factor in creating refugees.  Thought you would know this Pat.  Certainly Carson did  :evil: :-D :lol:

Carson had an interesting play with his call for a declaration of war against ISIS.  I would have thought that Rand would engage with this idea-- hasn't he been calling for Congress to defecate or get off the pot in exactly this way?  I also thought he spoke with good specificity, actually with more specificity than Cruz and the others.  Very much worth noting is that at this moment he is the ONLY candidate other than Rubio who beats Hillary.  This is worthy of reflection!!!

Carly was determined to duck the question about encryption.  In that this is definitely in her wheelhouse this is noteworthy.  Other than that she did fine but viscerally is not appealing but probably would do good work in the right cabinet job.

Agree that Trump did not understand Triad  :roll:  Generally I thought he sounded simplistic but probably did not do himself any harm though I thought Bush dinged him with pointing out that the Kurds are Muslims and using the example of the Muslims in India.  He bitch slapped Rand on the subject of what he meant about "closing some of the interent".    I was VERY glad to see him thoroughly renounce any thoughts of doing a Ross Perot and to speak respectfully of all the other candidates, but then disappointed to see him sort of take it back in the after debate conversation with Chris Cuomo.

I thought Rubio really dinged Cruz on military spending.

As best as I can tell there really isn't much difference between Rubio and Cruz on immigration; as best as I can tell both are willing to go for legalization without citizenship at some point.  Rubio has retrenched on the subject in a way I can live with.    Couldn't tell whether Cruz's defense against Rubio's attack on meta data to the effect that MORE powerful and focused surveillance was enabled was sound or not.   I don't understand why he doesn't claim the benefit of his position-- that even in time of crisis he has not panicked and continues to defend our privacy, our freedom etc.  Regardless, Christie effectively stomped on the two of them as they squabbled by effectively distinguishing debating in the Senate and being an executive having to make decisions when the excrement hits the fan.

I liked the way Christie's opening statement focused on the betrayal (excellent choice of word!  It hints at treason without saying it directly) by Baraq and Hillary.  I gather he is in third in New Hampshire?  A solid showing there could do him good, and I think he has really honed his skills and his personality in the town halls of NH.  IMHO he may surprise some of us here.

Kasich?  Ummm , , , who cares?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 16, 2015, 06:49:07 AM
But Syria is against ISIS!!!  So they are our allies!  And the Russians too.

Except in Obama World where the enemy of our enemy is our enemy.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 16, 2015, 07:02:39 AM
When Jeb brought up the Kurds on the Trump immigration plan, Trump should have come back with "The Kurds don't want to come here. They want to stay and fight."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 16, 2015, 07:12:23 AM
Doug writes:

"Conclusion:   Nothing changed.  All the same dynamics we have discussed govern this race."

That is why I didn't even bother watching the debate.  I have seen enough.  We know their strengths and weaknesses.

Bottom line for me is who can beat Hillary. 

The 'Get on Up' movie of James Brown was better than I thought it would be.   I never much cared for his music but he sure could sing and dance.   Much more entertaining than the debate. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - foreign policy debate
Post by: DougMacG on December 16, 2015, 08:47:05 AM
Right ccp, nothing changed but things start to get clarified for a wider audience.  Seeds are planted that might or might not turn into shifting allegiances later.  Like the recent Cruz surge in Iowa, people gradually become aware of liking or respecting someone but the move in support happens later. 

My guy Rubio did well.  He didn't knock out any GOP contenders or even move himself up but a lot of people are finding him acceptable to be their President, and ready.  It was mysterious how he was so gentle letting the frontrunner off the hook for what he didn't know about nuclear arsenal and strategy.  They all wait for their moment to pounce, but the moment came and instead he held his hand and helped him out.  It means for one thing Rubio is not feeling desperate - like Bush.  He doesn't see it as his job to take him down, just to show himself as ready for the job.  Rubio also seemed taken aback by either classified material slipped out by Cruz or classified material he was not able to use in rebuttal.  On radio, I missed some of the expressions in that moment. 

Either it is too bad that Rand Paul was included, making the foreign policy debate so divided, or it is good that he was, airing out that view and making them answer it.  Hillary is a hawk so this will be a very strange general election to have either two hawks bragging who will be tougher and alienating the 40-50% who don't want us involved anywhere or if we could have a Republican to the left / dove side of her criticizing American foreign interventions.

I love Ted Cruz, a conservative hero to me, but not a President.  It seems to me that he hides his more isolationist tendencies and limited Middle East regional knowledge and foreign policy experience with Trump-like tough talk:  I will utterly destroy them.  I will carpet bomb them.  I will kill them.  I will kill all of them.  I will bomb them over and over, again and again.  I will be the best ISIS bomber the world has ever seen.  But we all know that air power doesn't ever end this and as Bigdog's posts suggests, letting this go on forever with our planes flying over and bombing is a recruiting tool more than an agent of victory.

In that sense too, our open democracy process is recruitment tool for ISIS.  All these people audition on worldwide video to see who can talk the toughest, always about killing them, killing terrorists and killing everyone around them, instead of having a Commander in Chief who already did that and was by now leading the rebuilding effort in the area, opening hospitals and schools like Osama bin Laden used to do.

I don't know about regime change on Assad while we fight ISIS.  The focus first to me has to be to urgently shrink the territory that the ISIS caliphate controls to zero.  Every year we wait is a generation or two the war goes longer IMO.  Assad is an ally of Iran and Russia.  Rather than topple Assad first meaing a fight with Russia and Iran, you contain him for now and take out ISIS first, from all fronts, with all allies, using all means.  Then what?  I don't know, but terror training and export camps aren't going to be allowed to openly operate anywhere on this planet -is the policy.  Refugee camps must go in the re-captured territory, not in Europe and America.  The West can offer humanitarian aid, not American citizenship.  If they are peaceful, then that is who we want re-building and re-populating the area.

Immigration policy is starting to come to a Republican consensus.  Trump won't really send them all back.  Cruz is still tough but wishy washy on details and Rubio is committed to security first and then a long, careful process regarding legalization.  I say, 'e Pluribus Unum'.  If the many aren't coming to be one with us, then they aren't coming.  The pause should have been on all, not just Muslims, and there should be exceptions for highly scrutinized and beneficial to us applicants.  We shut down illegal immigration - for security reasons if nothing else -  and then focus legal immigration on American economic and demographic advantage.  To help us where we need help, not to take what we have.  Building a 500 ft. wall across our southern border doesn't stop the plotting terrorist who has made it to Vancouver or Montreal, or Boston.  'Border security' is far more encompassing than a wall or fence on one side (visitors, overstayed visas, northern border, etc.) but that is the most visible and highest traffic part of it.

Reading Nate Silver's column today, that one frontrunner who dominates the news might only slip if he is ignored by news coverage rather than constantly called out and criticized - so I barely mentioned him.  )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 16, 2015, 09:29:42 AM
" It means for one thing Rubio is not feeling desperate - like Bush."

Bush should really bow out and either return all the money  to his investors before he wastes it all.

Or give it to charity.  Why waste it on the MSM for ads and marketing.

Or send me a check  :-)

The Bush's need to wake up and smell the coffee.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 16, 2015, 10:46:42 AM
"Bush should really bow out and either return all the money..."

Agree.  Leave now, leave quietly, leave gracefully.  Spend more time with your family.  And don't endorse anyone.  I think the PAC can change directions anyway it wants.  What Jeb wants right now mostly is for that one guy to not win.  Best way to do that is shrink the field.  Lindsey Graham too, and Santorum, Huckabee.  You each had your time, now you're wasting ours.  Rand Paul wanted to air out his big difference on foreign policy.  He did that, so if the polls still don't move, get out and on with your other campaign.  Fiorina and Carson can stay a couple more debates (affirmative action) and then out before the first votes are cast unless they see a meaningful, upward move.  Christie, get out after NH unless you win it.  Better yet, get out before NH if the writing is already on the wall.  Your time will come.  Christie is also a strong VP possibliity to prosecute the case against Hillary.

I like Bush, but he came out of the gates insulting the base and running against us (while he talks about this other guy insulting people).  And with his last name baggage, he needed to win this by a mile or let it go.  Like Bobby Jindal, Jeb didn't connect, so give it up.

Between Cruz and Rubio, which one can win and remain reasonably popular and effective, getting their agenda passed and implemented - for 8 years.  Maybe neither but put your best bet down. 

Crafty:  "As best as I can tell there really isn't much difference between Rubio and Cruz on immigration; as best as I can tell both are willing to go for legalization without citizenship at some point.  Rubio has retrenched on the subject in a way I can live with.    Couldn't tell whether Cruz's defense against Rubio's attack on meta data to the effect that MORE powerful and focused surveillance was enabled was sound or not."

No one changed sides now but Rubio succeeded in blurring that distinction - since it IS a blurry distinction.  None of them are going to win and hunt down people who have been productively established here for more than a decade.  Might as well admit it now instead of chasing away every Hispanic and Asian American legal vote forever.  Over-promising (threatening) what you won't do anyway costs us the general election later even if it works for you now.  They all need to stay focused on the prize which is not the nomination.  McCain and Romney have that pennant hanging in the trophy case, yet we only see them as losers.
Title: Morris: Money Doesn't Matter
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 16, 2015, 11:38:32 AM
Money Doesn't Matter
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on December 15, 2015
Money doesn't matter (much). In this year's Republican nominating race, the standing of the candidates for the presidency is in inverse relationship to the amount of funds they have spent.

The front-runner, Donald Trump, has spent about $250,000 on advertising. The current party runner-up, Ted Cruz, has invested just shy of $1 million. In third place -- a distant third in the New York Times/CBS poll -- is Marco Rubio, who has spent over $14 million on media. And bringing up the rear is Jeb Bush, who has garnered a hearty 5 percent of the vote by spending over $35 million on ads in his campaign and is en route to winning the John Connally Award for amount of money spent per delegate vote at the convention.
 
The lesson is clear, or should be: The importance of money is highly overvalued in a high-profile presidential race, though it is still a deciding factor in down-ballot races like those for senator and governor and is the be-all and end-all for congressional or state legislative races.

The free media coverage of a presidential race simply overwhelms what paid media can bring to a campaign. We see wonderfully produced ads for the likes of Bush and Rubio, only to see the real thing in a debate a few weeks later. This disjuncture is disturbing: The figure conjured in the ads has only the most tenuous relationship with the guy we see at the podium. Who are we to believe, the ads or our own eyes?

Paid media has some specific purposes but is hardly a cure-all for what ails a campaign.

It can provide biographic depth, particularly with a candidate with a moving life story like John McCain or Ben Carson.

It is very useful for hitting an opponent with negatives (as Mitt Romney did to Newt Gingrich and President Obama did to Romney). But, when debates come as frequently as they do in the GOP nominating process, it is easy for a candidate to debunk the accusations and nullify the ad buy, no matter how extensive.

Its greatest use is to rebut opposition attacks and to make the attacker appear untruthful or ruthless as a counter-punch.

So why do candidates spend their entire waking lives raising money if it's not that important?

Money has become a status symbol with the media, a gauge of how seriously one should take a candidacy. For example, Mike Huckabee's inability to raise funds solidified his status as a minor candidate. Likewise with Rick Santorum. This means the winners of the last two Iowa caucuses (Santorum in 2012 and Huckabee in 2008) are way down in the polls in this year's Iowa contest. Why? Their limited fundraising caused the media to marginalize them and focus on Carson -- who raised vast amounts -- instead.

Federal Election Commission filings have become like campaign posters, attesting the strength of a candidacy -- they're show pieces to be paraded about but not actually spent. Cruz first won respectability as a candidate when he out-raised others in the first reporting period (and he continues to out-raise many of his competitors). But Cruz never had to spend the money; having it and displaying it was enough.

So, curiously, the very press that deplores the Citizens United decision and castigates the amount of campaign spending that has followed in its wake perpetuates the myth of the importance of money.

Before voters get to cast their first ballots in the primaries, candidates have to prove their credibility in the money primary and in the debate primary. These winnowing processes -- rather than the decisions of the voters themselves -- spell inclusion or exclusion in these pre-primary rounds.

So having a large bank account is like owning a fancy car or living in a mansion -- a symbol of wealth worth more than the money itself.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 16, 2015, 11:42:59 AM
I don't know people say that Trump can't get Mexico to pay for the wall?

He has gotten the media to pay for his campaign. :-D :-D :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 16, 2015, 11:53:06 AM
I don't know people say that Trump can't get Mexico to pay for the wall?

He has gotten the media to pay for his campaign. :-D :-D :-D

That IS funny that the richest guy running hasn't had to spend any money.  Those who think he's an idiot underestimate him.

DT does however have the ability to jet from here to there and back and again in luxury and comfort, anywhere he wants, anytime he wants.  People like Pawlenty, Walker were driving to Iowa; flying to NH, SC etc with staff was a big deal.  Jindal, Santorum and nearly all the rest, same.

Even at home, he lives in the media capital of the world.  Doesn't need to spend a cent to have a media event in the fanciest hotel.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 16, 2015, 12:06:40 PM
Pat:

When Jeb brought up the Kurds on the Trump immigration plan, Trump should have come back with "The Kurds don't want to come here. They want to stay and fight."

That is both pithy and funny.

OTOH, I'm guessing you would be ripping Dr. Ben a new anus if he did not know what the Nuclear Triad is and if he thought the internet could be shut down and had no problem with Russia forming an axis with Iran, Shiastan Iraq, Assad Syria, and Hezbollah Lebanon.  :evil:

All:

Some additional thoughts:

1) I'm thinking the foreign policy split underlying Rep thought, as exemplified by Rubio and Cruz, needs some serious thought on our part.   In my opinion our side is making a serious error by not making the point that Lindsay Graham made last night.  The anarchy and rise of Islamo Fascism is NOT because of Bush.  It is because Baraq through away what Bush finally achieved with the Surge and undermined Egypt, Libya, and spread guns all over the place to dubious and perfidious recipients at best, and evil mofos at worst.  

Trump plays right into this error with gusto as he says "I was against going into Iraq blah blah".  That's all well and good, but the point I make here needs to be a central point for our side.  Without it we are left with the inadequacies of both Cruz's strategy and Rubio's strategy.

What happens AFTER Cruz carpet bombs Isis-stan?!?  Is Rubio looking to re-do the Surge?  To what end?  With whom?  Will this fly with the American people who understandably at this point properly doubt the competence of our government and the plausibility of such goals in the aftermath of Baraq?

2) Have Trump and Cruz made a deal?  Interesting body language in Trump's back slap of Cruz and Cruz's response.

3) Excellent work being done on this thread with regard to polls.  I'd like to request that these efforts expand their focus to individual match-ups with Hillary.  Without this, the work is incomplete.



Title: Noteworthy
Post by: DDF on December 16, 2015, 12:17:08 PM
"Cruz made a claim during an exchange with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio about the new USA Freedom Act, which Cruz supported and Rubio opposed. Cruz said that "nearly 100 percent" of phone numbers can be checked for terror ties under the new program, compared to "20 percent to 30 percent" under earlier Patriot Act provisions."

When Trump gets elected (and he will) . It won't be Hillary nor socialist Sanders.... Trump will choose Cruz in order to pick up Latino and Democratic votes - Even Blacks will vote for Trump because even though they hate Whitey at times, they aren't so stupid as to give their country away...

When Trump and Cruz are in office, we can know they both favor East German information gathering tactics (which....I do too.....as long as the people in office are people that share my way of life).

This.... is what will happen.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 16, 2015, 12:29:31 PM
Great post and great questions posed.

" the point that Lindsay Graham made last night.  The anarchy and rise of Islamo Fascism is NOT because of Bush.  It is because Baraq through away what Bush finally achieved with the Surge and undermined Egypt, Libya, and spread guns all over the place to dubious and perfidious recipients at best, and evil mofos at worst. "

For the moment I would add the same goes for the economy for the general election.  Dems blame the Pelosi-Reid collapse and the Obama stagnation on Bush and Republicans and Republicans are too lazy or distracted to go back and set the record straight.

The Republican governing  error was to go along with Democrat policies like CRAp that brought down the economy.  This was government policy failure, not a defect of economic freedom.

If we wrongly concede these two points, we lose.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 16, 2015, 12:44:46 PM
Actually I would not have cared whether Carson knew what TRIAD was or not. And I did mention first that I thought Trump did not know what TRIAD was.

As to the Internet, we could shut down overseas ISPs so that people in the US did not have access to them. China does it all the time.  So there are ways to cut off communication that would not affect general use of the Internet.

As to Russia, lI am all in favor of letting Russia do the heavy lifting. We are not going to engage in Jacksonian warfare to stop them, so what the hell?  Ally with Iran, Iraq, etc? You reap what you sow and if you are not going to do what it takes to win, then others will step in and form what alliances are needed.

What I heard in the debate are a bunch of fools who would restart the Cold War and likely start a shooting war with Russia?  Do we need that? Not with our present leadership and not with those who are running and advocating more engagement.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 16, 2015, 01:01:58 PM
The funny thing about the nuclear triad was that DT was on Hugh Hewitt's show many times and Hugh kept warning him that he was going to ask specific questions on weapons numbers and programs that he thinks a Commander in Chief ought to know.  DT wasn't interested and didn't care.  I doubt he doesn't care about hundreds of billions of cost items in his own projects.  He was not damaged because of lowered expectations and how it was handled, but we are going to elect a guy not interested in strategic thinking?

Russia isn't going to do heavy lifting for us.  Watch the ending of that.

I agree with DT on the internet shutdown statement.  I was in technology export.  My biggest project was the rebuilding of Kuwait.  We weren't allowed to sell to enemies of the US as defined by several departments of the federal government.  If it is in our interest to shutdown the internet in Syria, Yemen or wherever and we have the power to do it, do it.

I was also squeemish at the audition for amateur tough talk about who would shoot whom down.  I agree with T (trying not to keep saying his name); that kind of message can be sent more subtly.  Those who talk the toughest might actually do the least or be required to do the most. Like Carly said, first take a few steps that tell people you're serious, missile defense in Poland for example.  Like I said, take out NK and Iran nuclear facilities first.  People see we are under new management without directly threatening Russian planes that are allegedly flying our missions.
Title: Frank Cagle: Trump’s foes must appeal to supporters
Post by: G M on December 16, 2015, 01:30:13 PM
http://www.knoxnews.com/opinion/columnists/frank-cagle/frank-cagle-trumps-foes-must-appeal-to-supporters-26f33c9e-7cf2-71ed-e053-0100007ffa88-362532971.html?d=mobile

Frank Cagle: Trump’s foes must appeal to supporters

3:00 a.m.
If Donald Trump was a grocer he would throw chickens off the roof of his store, bury a stuntman in the parking lot and threaten to beat the crap out of panhandlers in front of his business.

Old-timers might remember these antics as a few of many from legendary millionaire grocer Cas Walker, a Knoxville city councilman and sometime mayor. The irascible Cas loved attention and had his own reality television show — on daily and featuring people like Dolly Parton, Chet Atkins and the Everly Brothers. He would say anything, usually crude, to attract attention, and people loved him for it. He was also a bully who used his show and his newspaper, the Watchdog, to attack anyone who opposed him. To this day there are people in Knoxville who are big fans and nostalgic for the days when he was a political force in East Tennessee.

Historian and author Bruce Wheeler has written about Walker standing athwart any sign of progress in Knoxville, a constant thorn to the establishment. Whether it was fluoride in the water or expensive sewer lines, Cas was "agin it."


What I don't understand about the Republican establishment these days is that they fail to recognize that Trump uses outrageous statements to garner attention, but he taps into issues of real concern to the American people. But if you want to stop Trump, don't attack him; appeal to the people who support him. Offer sensible solutions to problems he has identified, rather than his half-baked, unrealistic rhetoric.

For example, when the Syrian refugee controversy erupted Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz suggested that maybe we could take only Christian refugees from the Middle East. They were excoriated for the idea. President Barack Obama stood in the Oval Office and said America could not have a religious test for admission and it was un-American. He should know better.

The 1965 immigration reform act, which still governs, has specific criteria for the admission of refugees: people fleeing religious persecution. Who is facing more religious persecution than the Christians in Syria and other areas controlled by ISIS? Beheading, buried alive, machine gunned. Any country has the right to decide who can be admitted and who cannot. Until 1965 Third World immigration was prohibited. There are Christian relief agencies in the Middle East that could help vet refugees facing persecution and help them resettle here.

Did Bush double down, make the case and provide an alternative to Trump's bellicosity? No, he just attacked Trump's idea to stop Muslim immigration temporarily, instead of making the issue his own. Trump's plan? How would that work? Offer anybody getting on the plane a ham sandwich and bar anybody who didn't eat it? His half-baked idea is about as practical as his plan to have Mexico pay for the border wall.

I think a Trump presidency would be a disaster. While he talks a good game, he has no practical way to carry out his promises. Like Cas, he will say anything to grab attention, get a headline and get on television. But his success should be a warning to the political establishment. The American people are fed up with political correctness, and if you do not provide sensible solutions to the issues Trump has raised, don't be surprised when he stand on the podium as the GOP nominee.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 16, 2015, 04:29:57 PM
Here is a thought for everyone.  Scenario is that Trump and Hillary are the nominees.  Hillary agrees with doing a debate.  (She may have a headache and have to cancel, if she even dared to agree with having one.)

Trump to Hillary

1.  You talk about violence against women and rape.  What about Juanita Broderick and Paula Jones? 

2.  I made money by working and building things. How did you make your money?

3.  What has your Foundation really done?

4.  What caused you to fall in Dec 2012 when you were going to have to testify?  How you been out drinking and dancing again like in Columbia?

5.  When Stevens was killed in Bengazi, were you sober enough to take the call?

6.  What happened to all your wrinkles? More botox?

7.  And I thought I was having a "bad hair" day! You could take some advice from me.

The PC candidate with  all the bagged versus the Non PC candidate who doesn't give a damn. Isn't that worth a vote for Trump?

I would pay money to see that.......
Title: Military strategist analyzes via the lens of the OODA loop. Very intelligent!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 17, 2015, 08:02:12 AM
http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/16/military-strategist-explains-why-donald-trump-leads-and-how-he-will-fail/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 17, 2015, 08:17:43 AM
We know Clinton will have all the answers and responses for every single possibility all written down just like the flowchart guidelines we see in medical care.   But frequently issues turn up that don't fit neatly into the flow in medical care and neither do political campaigns.

The one thing I do really like in Trump is when he says he will not discuss certain policy issues with regard to Isis etc.  He reasonably asks why should he tip off his enemy his every move?

He and any other  Republican candidate would do well to do the same when dealing with the Democratic criminal.   She and her mob cannot know in advance what the opposition is doing (though of course bribing for inside information must always be going on like on Wall St etc) so as to throw Hillary off.  We know she cannot think on her feet.  She freezes like a deer in headlights when she is surprised.  Too afraid of saying anything.   
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 17, 2015, 08:46:39 AM
That is why Trump would be so successful and fun to watch in a debate with Clinton. He would provoke her into a full blown melt down. No one else would do that because they are afraid of the PC police.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Rubio v Cruz
Post by: DougMacG on December 17, 2015, 09:13:39 AM
The aftermath of the debate has gotten interesting.  I was having a hard time understanding Rubio's strategy, giving Trump a pass on not knowing the basics of our military  while taking it to Cruz on immigration and intelligence.

But look what has followed, Cruz is now all tangled up on immigration.  He has staked out the most extreme position on the issue, further over than Trump, while the record and sound bites of the past show that Rubio was right.  Cruz supported legalization of illegals and expansion of the already legal programs.

Don't get me wrong.  I am a hard core conservative.  I would like to see us follow the rule of the law to the letter (except on the laws I break).  But I also want to win elections.  Does anyone remember when Rick Perry entered the 2008 race in the summer of 2007.  He was an unknown to the rest of us outside of Texas and had an amazing economic record governing the largest Republican state.  But then as he came out with positions, he was 100% pure conservative on all issues, no nuance, too good to be true, and too good to win. (He fell for other reasons.)  Cruz is different and more skilled but keeps running to prove to the already conservative that he is the most conservative running.  Well good for him, but I want a conservative to win the general election and change the nation's course, n ot to be a symbol of how I fell on principle back in 2016 when our country went all the way under.

Right now immigration is that issue.  It was frontrunner's launching point.  He went from a joke to first place.  It was the fight of the Senate.  It is the fight of this race.  Rubio wasn't saying Cruz is worse than him on the issue; he was saying they are all essentially the same on the issue.  We need to secure the country and we need to draw some really difficult line on who stays and who goes.  Cruz attacked on that issue unnecessarily because every conservative already knows Rubio's problem on it.  there isn't a far right site that has a pro-Rubio post in years.  But Rubio helped Cruz back himself into a corner on it.  And Cruz' response is to make himself 100% unelectable.  Now he has the choice of flipflopping further or answering the question DT can't answer, tell us how you are going to round them all up and send them home, 11 million or more.  And you don't get to use the ISIS tough talk of kill them all.  You get to describe the sheriff-led eviction lockout scenario where they pound on every door, round em up and take them away.  Like Crafty says, how will that play?

BTW, there isn't a let them stay but never be citizens or vote answer.  That just leaves a permanent issue on the table for Democrats, second class 'citizens', 3/5ths of a person etc.

Here is how that closet liberal, establishment puppet, Charle Krauthammer described what happened:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/12/17/krauthammer_trashes_cruz_over_immigration_he_crossed_the_rubicon_when_he_crossed_rubio.html

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: What was interesting about your interview [with Sen. Ted Cruz], is that it was one quotation or soundbite from the guy you were interviewing after another.

It wasn't as if he said, well I interpret what you say, you just said that you've told us you never supported legalization, here's the clip.

I was surprised, because I have never seen him in a place where he looked trapped.

He pretended that this was a poison pill, he said well, you did say three times that you wanted to pass it, you wanted to get something that the country would agree on, and then when you hit him with that, the only place he could go, is to try to slide away and talk about other things.

When at the end, he was reduced to saying, look, what you're saying can't be true, Bret, that I'm contradicting myself, because it would imply that Jeff Sessions was for amnesty, so it can't be true.

That is, really reaching, and basically, I'm surprised, because he is not only a great debater, but he sure knows how to shift into another mode, to try to change the subject, but he is also prepared.

You would think he would have that answer prepared, or did the staff not tell him that you crossed, I hate to say this, a Rubicon last night, when [Rubio] made him say that [he never supported legalization].

He stumbled into saying he never supported legalization.
--------------------------------

And now he really doesn't.

We'll see what happens with polls on this.  Most likely Cruz goes the way of the frontrunner, up in nomination numbers and down in general election numbers.  Rubio's bet is that in the end, we will want to pick the one who will win.
------------------------------

Conservatives like Beck, Levin and Rush who trash Rubio over this are in denial that what Rubio was trying to do in the first place was pre-empt what Obama did anyway and the details of the bill would have had to be negotiated re-written to get through a conservative House.

If you think this is going to go away without difficult negotiations and compromise unfortunately, get used to losing.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 17, 2015, 02:47:32 PM
Here is the Front Line video on the Immigration Battle. Very interesting because Immigration lost because not Cruz, but when Brat beat Cantor that night in Virginia. Otherwise, it would have passed.

https://youtu.be/-SeQdreN4MQ (https://youtu.be/-SeQdreN4MQ)

Go to 5:38 in the video. Not good for Cruz.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 17, 2015, 05:27:07 PM
Uh , , , it only runs 31 seconds , , ,
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Who is winning Iowa?
Post by: DougMacG on December 17, 2015, 05:39:48 PM
First, it would be nice if 'winning in Iowa' meant winning in Iowa, meaning that you HAVE TO walk away with the 6 electoral votes there if you are going to win the election, not just win the Republican caucuses.  That said, here are today's polls:

Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton   PPP    Trump 43, Clinton 45   Clinton +2
Iowa: Cruz vs. Clinton   PPP    Cruz 47, Clinton 44   Cruz +3
Iowa: Rubio vs. Clinton   PPP    Rubio 48, Clinton 41   Rubio +7
Trump also TRAILS Bernie Sanders in Iowa in the same poll.  Why is he trumpeting polls when polls show him finishing last?
Rubio is winning Iowa (in this one, flawed poll).  Trump and Cruz are within the margin of error in this partly conservative state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

We don't need margin of error.  We need to win 270 electoral votes minimum and really about 300 to shut down the post election, Democrat lawyer, cheating machine.  Iowa is 6 votes but the upper midwest region of MN, WI, MI and IA is 42 votes, all commonly lost in a Republican loss.  Reagan won 3 of those 4 states twice.

Has anyone else noticed (okay, other than Crafty) how consistent this pattern has been?
If the polls don't matter or are all wrong, why do we call one guy the frontrunner?  Why do we use them to decide who is in the debates?

There isn't a nationwide, general election poll listed on Real Clear Politics where Trump outperforms Rubio against Clinton, so I went to the superior site of Huffington Post and found this:
HuffPost Model Estimate
  Hillary Clinton 49.7%
  Donald Trump 42.7%
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Nominee Trump = President Hillary Clinton
If election were held today.  If these polls are indicative.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 17, 2015, 07:07:42 PM
Here is the video.

http://www.pbs.org/video/2365587196/ (http://www.pbs.org/video/2365587196/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 17, 2015, 07:19:18 PM
This whole election is going to be about turnout and the get out the vote effort. Nothing else. Unfortunately, the assumptions made on the models will not reflect turnout.

Isn't it amazing that Trump is kicking ass in most states, leading by more than double the other candidates, but versus Hillary, others are leading and not him? It tells you that something is wrong in the polling and the assumptions being made, or else the GOP will simply sit out if Trump is the nominee. 

After the Senate vote on the Omnibus Bill, I am even more convinced that the GOP needs to collapse and another party take its place. Since that won't happen...........

LET IT BURN!!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 17, 2015, 08:29:49 PM
"Isn't it amazing that Trump is kicking ass in most states, leading by more than double the other candidates, but versus Hillary, others are leading and not him? It tells you that something is wrong in the polling and the assumptions being made, or else the GOP will simply sit out if Trump is the nominee."

No, it tells you that Republican primary voters are not representative of all voters. 


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 07:19:37 AM
So let me get this straight.  You say that Primary Voters are not representative of the GOP electorate.  How do you account for:

1. Prior to Trump, Jeb was the general leader. Now he can't muster enough support to fill a McDonalds.

2. Since before announcing when his support was no more than 5-7%, Trump has increased in support to over 40% in some polls.

3. Trump's unfavorables have fallen from over 60% down to the low 30's.

4. Trump versus Hillary has had him closing the gap in most polls.


Now, what has accounted for this change?  Has:

1. The mix of Primary voters suddenly changed so that those who would normally vote in primaries no longer are going to vote so other candidates support are down?

2. Have those who have decided not to vote in the Primary been replaced by people suddenly deciding to vote in the Primary and they will all be Trump supporters?

3. Have the models suddenly changed to unfairly represent Trump support?


Nowhere in the internals am I seeing anything that could account for those changes...........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 18, 2015, 07:36:12 AM
"You say that Primary Voters are not representative of the GOP electorate."

It looked to me like he is pointing to the difference between primary and general election voters.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 18, 2015, 08:54:00 AM
"It looked to me like he is pointing to the difference between primary and general election voters."

Exactly so.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 09:13:18 AM
The polls are using the same population sample and asking preference in the Primary and then doing Head to Head Samples.  So how can there be such a difference?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 18, 2015, 09:38:30 AM
The polls are using the same population sample and asking preference in the Primary and then doing Head to Head Samples.  So how can there be such a difference?

No, the difference between Trump leading in the primary and trailing in the general election matchups.  You say his negatives are improving or he can deal with that later but at this point he is not the strongest Republican candidate in the general election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 12:33:36 PM
 Running for President is “Marketing”. You go out and

1.   Build initial interest and Create Initial Demand.

2.   Solidify the base of supporters.

3.   Appeal to others by shifting the marketing strategy which he is beginning now.

4.   Continue to create new demand and interest by improving the product (issues), and then introducing new products.

With a Marketing Strategy, you never let the product get to the Mature Phase. A Mature Product does not increase demand and actually loses demand after a period of time. When in the Mature stage, you reinvent yourself, or you go into decline.

At this point:

Snarly has matured and gone into decline. She must reinvent or drop out.

Carson has matured, declined and is now about gone. He must reinvent himself or drop out. It is doubtful he can reinvent himself.

Kasich, Huckabee, and Graham came in as matured and quickly went into decline. Kasich did try to reinvent himself, but the old product image was too strong and that has failed.

Christie came in matured, but in the debates has reinvented himself. But he must now increase demand and there is doubt that he can increase it much at this stage, though New Hampshire is looking good for him at this point. But will that transfer to other states? Not likely.

Rubio and Cruz both came in as new products. They have finally managed to create demand, and are gaining support. But how much further can they increase support, especially if they keep going after each other?  What new product can they insert into their campaigns at this point that would increase further demand?  I expect some additional growth from one or the other, but a mature product stage should soon materialize and the new product brought in.

As to Trump, he came in as a new product, saying the things that others were afraid to say, but believed. He gained initial support, but still garnered heavy resistance. Once it was confirmed that he was in to stay, support increased because the product was gaining acceptance and credibility.

Promotional marketing continued with a massive media campaign, funded by the media itself, increasing product exposure and gaining more support. Product comparison  tests (the debates) further cemented the differences over competing products, gaining further acceptance.  Current events (San Bermardino) reflected a further need for the product and support edged upward.

Now, the promotional phase has ended so a new marketing strategy must be implemented to keep from going stale and maturing.  There is evidence of it already being implemented……..

1.   The statement that the product would not challenge as a 3rd party candidate, but would work and believed in the party.

2.   A mellowing of statements in rallies and showing a more subdued personality that previously exhibited.

3.   Smaller Town Hall meetings where in more intimate settings, the products true personality showed through.

4.   Today’s statement that the product would be less devisive.

5.   Going after the other Party candidate.

The purpose of these changes are to expand market segment and favorability.

What is interesting is that he is now transitioning himself to being the Party Leader. This transition is being helped by the other candidates themselves by echoing his positions after having had other positions. 

Interesting also is that this transition is taking place while he is still gaining support. He is doing this before he hits the mature stage, the mark of a master marketeer.

It will be interesting to see the reaction to his comments about Ryan and the new budget. This should drive him higher and if others echo his position later, it make him even stronger.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 18, 2015, 01:58:05 PM
Interesting analysis Pat.

Some thoughts I would contribute:

1) Rubio misses a big opportunity when he fails to call himself the front runner per my previous posts in this regard.

2) Rubio missed a big opportunity in the debate to paint/point out Trump as the ignoramus for not knowing what the Nnuclear Triad is.  Is he afraid to go cage fight with Trump?

3) His food fight with Cruz on metadata and immigration serves neither of them and helps Trump.

4) ALL of the candidates should have jumped on the Ryan budget HARD as the betrayal that it is.

=====================================================================

Who needs “Star Wars VII”? We’ve got the Republican presidential competition. As alternative universes go, this one has been hard to beat.

Out of nowhere, Donald Trump (Is he Darth Vader? Luke Skywalker? Both?) landed in his celebrity starship to challenge and terrorize . . . the Establishment. The genius of the American political system is that it has built-in reality checks. The next one arrives in February with the start of 50 individual state primary elections or caucuses. Opinion-poll politics gives way to voting-booth politics.

Will Donald Trump, master of our alternative political universe, survive in the real-world primaries? This question forced itself upon us toward the end of the Las Vegas debate, when Hugh Hewitt asked Mr. Trump about the “nuclear triad.”
Opinion Journal Video
Assistant Editorial Page Editor James Freeman on the fifth Republican presidential debate. Photo credit: Getty Images.

This excerpt conveys the gist of his answer: “But we have to be extremely vigilant and extremely careful when it comes to nuclear. Nuclear changes the whole ballgame. Frankly, I would have said get out of Syria; get out—if we didn’t have the power of weaponry today. The power is so massive that we can’t just leave areas that 50 years ago or 75 years ago we wouldn’t care. It was hand-to-hand combat.”

That answer raises the recent Ben Carson question: How much does a candidate for the U.S. presidency actually need to know about anything in the real political world? The Las Vegas debate suggests we are moving closer to the realities of a voting-booth campaign, made clear in the fascinating, important exchanges between Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Notably, their discussion of dictators.

Wolf Blitzer asked Mr. Cruz about his past assertion that the U.S. should have left in place Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadhafi and Hosni Mubarak. Let’s focus on Gadhafi.

Mr. Cruz replied that Hillary Clinton and President Obama “led NATO in toppling the government in Libya. They did it because they wanted to promote democracy. A number of Republicans supported them. The result,” he said, “is Libya is now a terrorist war zone run by jihadists.” He also opposed “toppling Assad.”

Mr. Cruz’s remarks are meant to attract the swath of GOP voters who get upset by the phrase, “nation building.” He hopes that when Sen. Rand Paul’s libertarian campaign inevitably folds, that isolationist base will move into the Cruz column. The Cruz campaign’s political math is: Evangelicals plus anti-immigration conservatives plus libertarians equals the nomination.

Sen. Rubio challenged Mr. Cruz’s elision of Gadhafi with Mubarak: “Moammar Gadhafi is the man that killed those Americans over Lockerbie, Scotland. Moammar Gadhafi is also the man that bombed that cafe in Berlin and killed those Marines.” He added that if “anti-American dictators like Assad, who help Hezbollah, who helped get those IEDs into Iraq, if they go, I will not shed a tear.”

Besides surfacing a substantive foreign-policy divide inside the GOP, the Cruz-Rubio exchanges yielded useful political insights about these two.

If one, bloodless qualification for the GOP nominee is, very simply, who’d best compete with Hillary Clinton in the debates, it looks to me like Marco Rubio would demolish her equivocations. We knew Mr. Rubio’s set-speech skills were impressive, but the mastery he routinely displayed in this debate of spontaneously compressing events and arguments into a coherent argument was impressive.

Mr. Cruz was a legendary debater at Princeton, a great political asset that may prove a problem. Mr. Cruz is running a debater’s campaign. In debate, rhetorical power depends on leaving out details. His frantic attempt later to get Mr. Blitzer to let him clarify his dictator comments suggested he knew Mr. Rubio had damaged him on an important point.

These two are formidable politicians, but Mr. Rubio’s ability to identify vulnerability and stick a shiv through the Cruz armor was unexpected.

Second best at this rapier is Carly Fiorina, who cut Donald Trump after he said Middle East military funds should have been spent on U.S. roads and airports. That, she said, is precisely Barack Obama’s position: “I’m amazed to hear that from a Republican presidential candidate.”

Ben Carson upped his policy game, but why didn’t he do that from day one? The delay is fatal. Jeb Bush also waited too long to learn the debate format, but the way he, of all people, made Donald Trump blow his top was great TV. For Mr. Bush, Chris Christie (whose ridicule of the Senate metadata debate was a gratuitous misfire) and John Kasich, the whole game now is New Hampshire. It’s win, place or go home.

We come out of Vegas with the same question we brought to Vegas: Is Donald Trump more than an opinion-poll phenom? Will they still love him inside the voting booths? Maybe. But this debate and the decline of Ben Carson suggests it’s time for Mr. Trump to up the substance of his game. The politicians are starting to catch up with the starship.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 02:31:46 PM
Interesting thought for Rubio to try and claim that he was the front runner. However, Trump would come back and claim that other polls show him as being the front runner. Also, Trump would hit him with all the polls showing him in the primaries at from 35 to 41% and Rubio in the low teens. And then, "son, you gotta win the primary first".

As to TRIAD, how many people in the country actually understand what TRIAD means? Unless you were in the military, you would generally not know much about it. So as an issue, it is nothing to worry about. And if it was and ever came up again, I would answer if I were Trump, "you mean the sub force, the missile force and the air force..........we make our military strong enough, then we don't have to use TRIAD".

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 02:52:00 PM
The PPP poll now showing Trump increasing in strength.  This is the most comprehensive PPP poll yet. It is supporting a surge for Trump seen in other polls in both support and favorability.

PPP has had, along with IBD and NBC, the worst polls for Trump. Now they are catching up.  Have they changed methodology? If not, then this just collaborates a surge for Trump.

Carson is now "over" with this. Just more confirmation that he is through. Rubio? No change in support. Cruz an increase in support.

It is definitely a three person race. Trump, Cruz and Rubio.  If Rubio did not pick up any support from the last debate, it is not good for him at all. Yet, he is the only GOPe favorable candidate left.

Quote
Trump is the biggest gainer since our last national poll in mid-November, going from 26% to 34%. He’s also become more broadly popular with GOP voters, with his favorability rating going from 51/37 up to 58/34.

Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate holds true with most segments of the party. He leads with 36% among voters most concerned with having a nominee who’s conservative on the issues, and with 34% among voters most concerned about being able to beat a Democrat in the fall. He leads among both Evangelicals with 35%, and among non-Evangelicals with 33%.

He leads with both women (34%) and men (also 34%). He leads with both younger voters (38%) and seniors (32%).

There are only 2 groups of the electorate Trump doesn’t lead with- the closely related groups of Tea Party and ‘very conservative’ voters. Cruz has the upper hand with each of those. He’s at 38% with ‘very conservative’ voters to 32% for Trump, with no one else getting more than 8%. And he’s at 41% with Tea Party voters to 32% for Trump with no one else getting more than 9%.

Cruz has been the second biggest gainer since our last poll, going from 14% to 18%. There are other positive signs for Cruz in the poll. He’s the most frequent second choice of GOP voters with 14% picking him on that front to 10% each for Carson and Trump. He’s also the second pick of Trump voters specifically (25% to 13% for Carson) so he’s well positioned to benefit if Trump ever does falter.

Marco Rubio is really treading water. He was at 13% last month, and he’s at 13% this month. He’s losing second choice support- 13% said he was their next man up in November, now it’s just 9%.



http://www.scribd.com/doc/293631794/PPP-National-GOP-Poll-12-18-15 (http://www.scribd.com/doc/293631794/PPP-National-GOP-Poll-12-18-15)

(https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/presidential-candidates-ppp-poll-12-18-15.jpg?w=1866&h=1797)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 03:04:11 PM
Fox poll just released....

Trump 39%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 11%
Carson 9%
Bush 3%

All polling done after the debate.

More confirmation that the Party base is moving towards Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, General election polling
Post by: DougMacG on December 18, 2015, 04:21:43 PM
Same poll you cite shows Trump losing to Clinton by 11, Rubio leading Clinton by 2,  a 13 point difference!

I keep looking for those numbers to move against Rubio but the spread keeps widening.

You may not see this but if Trump can't reverse that problem by primary time, people are going to pick someone who can win. 
You say have to win the primary first.  But you have to show you can win the general to win the primary, IMHO.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 49, Trump 38   Clinton +11
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 45, Cruz 45   Tie
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   FOX News   Rubio 45, Clinton 43   Rubio +2
General Election: Carson vs. Clinton   FOX News   Clinton 46, Carson 44   Clinton +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 18, 2015, 05:16:45 PM
Doug writes:

"Same poll you cite shows Trump losing to Clinton by 11, Rubio leading Clinton by 2,  a 13 point difference!

I keep looking for those numbers to move against Rubio but the spread keeps widening."

This makes me think this is exactly why Rush included Rubio in the "anti" establish group with Cruz and Trump.

I have concluded this is a good idea unlike Levin who continues to diminish Rubio.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 18, 2015, 05:17:42 PM
Interesting comparing the previous result to now.

This month Trump down 11 and in Nov up 5.

With Cruz it is a tie and in Nov, Cuz +4

Rubio, +2 now down from +8


Also, Trump wins on being the most effective on ISIS, Commander in Chief, and Economy

Key Point,

The Poll has

43% Dem
39% Rep
16% Ind

Theses numbers are NOT representative of the electorate as a whole. Too many Dems and Reps and not enough Ind.

For only the Top 4 candidates, Trump is at 49 followed by Cruz at 25.

The problem is the number of people who say that they consider Trump a "side show".  Dem 76, Rep 36, Ind 56.  So what can be observed with this is that many Reps or Indies will desert the party at this time if Trump is the nominee.

And yet the Trumpkins are the ones being castigated about throwing the election to Hillary if we don't support an other than Trump nominee?  Go figure............ (http://And yet the Trumpkins are the ones being castigated about throwing the election to Hillary if we don't support an other than Trump nominee?  Go figure............)




Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 20, 2015, 12:47:52 PM
Looking at this Obama-Boehner-Ryan budget, what was needed was conservative strength and conservative leadership and it was needed way earlier in this process.  It didn't come from anywhere in congress so it has to come from a new administration.

All here are in agreement I believe that last time R's controlled both chambers plus the White House, government was expanded.  Distracted by war you could say, but they grew the government and made things worse.

We can't survive another W Bush on the issue of failing to limit and reform government.  Of these 3 who would do it best if elected?   Among the group here, I see 3 different answers to that.  `Of the who can and will get elected?  We are watching the numbers on that. 

Trump projects strength in leadership, but I don't know to what extent his priorities match mine.  I know Cruz is conservative and strong and true enough, but I don't know that he can win.  Pat disagrees but I say Rubio is sufficiently conservative, would stand up on principle on all priorities including immigration to the best extent possible.  There will be legalization in different amounts depending on who is negotiating and how it goes, but if Rubio fails to secure the borders and deal effectively with visa issues first as promised, his legitimacy is lost and he knows it, like HW Bush on read on my lips.  I don't see that happening.  I see a growth economy and positive agenda coming out of a Rubio election, and at this point I see him as the only one who is running to win the general election.

There is no reform of the R party or the country or lesson learned that comes out of losing this Presidential election no matter which one wins the nomination.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 20, 2015, 01:44:18 PM

Quote
Looking at this Obama-Boehner-Ryan budget, what was needed was conservative strength and conservative leadership and it was needed way earlier in this process.  It didn't come from anywhere in congress so it has to come from a new administration

We were promised "conservative strength and leadership" in 2010, 2012 and 2014. It never happened. Why should it be any different under Rubio?  (Of course, he can't even catch Trump in one state, needless to say win the nomination.

How is Rubio going to win the nomination? What is his "road map" where his support exists now?

As a throw away to DMG. here is the latest Iowa poll.  Cruz expanding the lead. Carson support moving to Cruz, unlike in other states where most Carson is going to Trump.

 Relevance? President Kasich. President Huckabee.

(http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/2015/12/19/8b7804e5-fe4c-4a3a-93e5-af29f5181421/b3215a4c1d5a0627ece9e3f89f6f617c/horseracegopiadecember.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 20, 2015, 03:22:29 PM
Maybe this is the video that ISIS is showing to recruit

https://youtu.be/Hkge4bVRQ08?t=197 (https://youtu.be/Hkge4bVRQ08?t=197)

If you haven't watch Trump rallies, notice in the video the pull he has. Where is pull like that for Hillary, Cruz, Rubio?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 20, 2015, 03:28:15 PM
Needed to add something to the Iowa poll...

Quote
[…]  For the October, November, and December waves, all respondents from previous waves were contacted to participate. Recontact rates ranged from 42% to 53% for each state. In addition, new respondents were selected from the YouGov panel each wave. Approximately 60% of the October wave consists of reinterviews, with the remainder coming from new additions. Approximately 70% of the November wave consists of reinterviews from the previous waves, and approximately 90% of the December wave consists of reinterviews. (link and complex pdf methodology below)

So they are recontacting people that they had contacted earlier to see where they stand now. And who knows what the criteria was for selecting those that they would recontact.

This is not a real poll of where all people stand today.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 20, 2015, 04:02:50 PM
"If you haven't watch Trump rallies, notice in the video the pull he has. Where is pull like that for Hillary, Cruz, Rubio?"
"... where his support exists now?"

No doubt DT was the man of the year - 2015.  Bummer for him it didn't happen to be an election year.    )

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 20, 2015, 06:18:21 PM
Trump is now where Giuliani and Hillary were in 2008.

=================

No, There Won't Be a Brokered National Convention
By Michael Barone
December 18, 2015
All around the political blogosphere you can find folks smacking their lips over the prospect of a "brokered" Republican national convention. They look forward to the spectacle of delegates assembling in Cleveland with no candidate having a majority, of multiple ballots with governors, floor demonstrations after nominating speeches, congressmen running as favorite sons and delegates demanding that state delegations be polled.


Political junkies relish the idea of watching hours of convention proceedings with the same frisson of ignorance about the outcome that makes sports broadcasts the only live television still commanding a large audience.


I have bad news for those looking forward to a brokered convention. It. Isn't. Going. To. Happen.


That's because it's impossible for party national conventions to serve the same function they did for more than a century after the first Democratic National Convention assembled in Baltimore in May 1832.


Over those years the national convention was a unique communications medium, the only place where politicians from across the nation could meet face-to-face, conduct confidential negotiations and reach an agreement.


In those days, men of business -- and the few women of business -- communicated with each other in written letters. Presidents and party chairmen, like business executives and middle managers, spent their days reading their correspondence and dictating responses to stenographers and secretaries. At the end of the day they would proofread the letters, sign them and see that they were put in the mail.


One such man of business was James A. Farley, Franklin Roosevelt's postmaster general and 1932 and 1936 campaign manager, who signed all his correspondence in green ink. In his memoirs Farley wrote how he arrived at Chicago's Union Station for the 1932 national convention with no idea how many delegates his candidate had or how he could put together enough votes for the nomination. There was no medium in which he could engage in serious negotiations except face-to-face during the convention.


Farley also explained how he correctly predicted that Roosevelt would carry 46 of 48 states in 1936. During the fall campaign he took the extraordinary step of placing a long-distance phone call every week to one well-informed politician in each non-Southern state. To double check, he placed another long-distance call to each the weekend before the election.


Long-distance calls in those days were placed through operators and were expensive -- $1 a minute when average earnings were maybe $50 a week. The first direct distance dialing call was not placed until 1951. They weren't available in major cities until the late 1950s and countrywide until the 1960s.


In those days politicians outside of Congress didn't see much of each other in person. Train travel was time-consuming and plane travel hazardous. Regularly scheduled jet travel began when the Boeing 707 was launched in 1958.


It's no coincidence, then, that the last multi-ballot national convention was in 1952, when Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson. As long-distance calls and jet flights became more common, some of the communication that could occur only at the convention started happening earlier.


The parties' switch to choosing most delegates in primaries, between 1968 and 1972, also changed things. Before many delegates were chosen by party bosses and did their bidding, like the Tammany, New York, mayor who, when asked who his police commissioner would be, said, "They haven't told me yet." You had to wait until the convention to see how these people would vote.


Not so after 1968, when CBS' Martin Plissner conducted the first media delegate count. Network delegate counts were vindicated in the close 1976 contest between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. In 1984 Walter Mondale, just short of a majority after the last primary, got commitments from additional delegates and gave their names and numbers to Associated Press delegate counter David Lawsky. By noon the next day he was effectively nominated.


So what happens if no Republican candidate emerges with a delegate majority from the 2016 primaries and caucuses? Does everybody wait for the convention to convene in Cleveland to see who emerges as the nominee?


The answer is yes -- if you do a few things first, such as ban long-distance telephone calls, ban jet travel, ban media delegate counts and shut down the Internet. Then the national convention can function again as national conventions did up through the 1950s.


Otherwise, the negotiations and shenanigans that used to go on only at national conventions will be happening all around us -- as they already are and have been for many months.




COPYRIGHT 2015 CREATORS.COM
Michael Barone is Senior Political Analyst for the Washington Examiner, co-author of The Almanac of American Politics and a contributor to Fox News.
 

Title: In case no one notices
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 21, 2015, 07:08:23 AM
In case no one notices, Lindsay Graham has dropped out of the race.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 21, 2015, 07:11:38 AM
How will his support be divided up? All two voters...........
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 21, 2015, 07:27:36 AM
Interesting analysis of the different types of polling methods and why Trump performs better with online polls.

http://morningconsult.com/2015/12/why-donald-trump-performs-better-in-online-polling/?utm_content=23140621&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter (http://morningconsult.com/2015/12/why-donald-trump-performs-better-in-online-polling/?utm_content=23140621&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)
Title: Re: In case no one notices
Post by: DougMacG on December 21, 2015, 07:56:57 AM
In case no one notices, Lindsay Graham has dropped out of the race.

This changes everything.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 21, 2015, 08:20:40 AM
You are right. With Mrs. Graham out, Trump is finished..............again..................and again..................and again..........................
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 21, 2015, 09:19:06 AM
You are right. With Mrs. Graham out, Trump is finished..............again..................and again..................and again..........................

Rubio is hoping and praying he doesn't get the endorsement of Graham and Bush.
Title: Re: In case no one notices
Post by: DDF on December 21, 2015, 11:12:10 AM
In case no one notices, Lindsay Graham has dropped out of the race.

This changes everything.

Who is going to get all three of Graham's voters?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 21, 2015, 12:04:39 PM
They go to

McCain  (They still think that it is 2008.)
Title: 2016 Presidential Undersampling Trump Supporter?, Sanders leads Trump by 13 pts
Post by: DougMacG on December 22, 2015, 06:34:31 AM
Isn't that what we call it when Trump loses a third of his support in 2-3 days?

Quinnipiac has Trump back in the 20s, near his 'ceiling'.  Cruz almost within the margin of error.  Rubio flat but still relevant in third place.

Cruz and Rubio tied and within one point of Clinton.

Trump loses to Clinton by 7 points and Trump loses to Bernie Sanders by 13 points.

Election Polls,  Tuesday, December 22
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 47, Trump 40   Clinton +7
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Clinton 44, Cruz 44   Tie
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac   Rubio 43, Clinton 44   Clinton +1
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Sanders 51, Trump 38   Sanders +13
General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Sanders 43, Cruz 44   Cruz +1
General Election: Rubio vs. Sanders   Quinnipiac   Rubio 45, Sanders 42   Rubio +3
Title: Re: In case no one notices
Post by: G M on December 22, 2015, 06:40:38 AM
In case no one notices, Lindsay Graham has dropped out of the race.


He wanted to spend more time with his pool boy Lorenzo.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Ramesh Ponnuru, Cruz v Rubio
Post by: DougMacG on December 22, 2015, 06:55:33 AM
A pretty good summary of this big war over small differences on three fronts (even though he discloses being a friend of Cruz for two decades).

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428855/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-republican-primary-fight
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 07:39:00 AM
DMG,

 :-D I knew that when I looked, you would have posted this. Unfortunately, Q once again fails to give a full breakdown of the demographics.  But ignoring that:

1. Q is consistently about 10 points less with their Trump support than almost all other polls. Apparently, it is something in their polling method.

2. All other polls show Trump generally at double the Cruz support. This poll says 4? 

3. Q polled far more Reps than Dems.  And there is just that little bit of difference between Hillary and all other candidates.  Huh?  This makes no sense.

4. Every other poll shows Trump leading at 50 on the economy. Yet here he has 19.  In other categories, the same occurs as well.

5. Rubio is 3 points higher than Trump on jobs, but is at 12% support.

6. Q has been the poll that started the Carson surge.

7. Trump is leading by 15 to 20 points in every state poll other than Iowa, but only 4 nationally.  Didn't know that Iowa was so heavily populated that it could swing the country.

8. Every other post debate poll had Trump winning by double digits, but Cruz won it 40 - 20 in this poll.

The numbers do not add up in any way, shape or form. Wonder if CFG paid for this poll.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 22, 2015, 07:46:43 AM
Pat,  Good points but I already conceded they were underpolling Trump supporters.    :wink:

More interesting is to ponder why Sanders is performing better than Clinton against Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 08:38:54 AM
Yeah, Sanders better than Clinton............

There is no consistency in the Q poll when you look at the questions asked. It makes no sense, especially when other polls are consistently different. What is Q doing that others do not do?

How can Q poll 508 Reps and 462 Dems and get the head to head results that they do? 

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 03:04:04 PM
Just so DMG does not get too excited about the Q poll, here is Reuters 5 day rolling average.   :evil:

December 22, 2015

672 RESPONDENTS

Donald Trump     36.7%

Ben Carson         11.3%

Ted Cruz            11.0%

Marco Rubio         8.3%

Jeb Bush               6.7%

Wouldn’t vote        6.3%

Chris Christie         4.3%

Mike Huckabee      4.2%

Carly Fiorina          3.6%

Rick Santorum       3.1%

Rand Paul             2.7%

John Kasich          1.4%

George Pataki        0.2%

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 04:26:23 PM
Here is the Q Internals regarding the sample.  Comments below in red:


 REGISTERED VOTERS....................................
                                                                                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                                      Tot         Rep       Dem        Ind            Men           Wom          Yes         No
Weighted Percentage        100%     30%      33%        28%          47%            53%        32%      68%
Unweighted                     1,140      374       360         334            610              530          587       553
MoE (+/-%)                      2.90     5.07       5.17        5.36           3.97             4.26        4.04       4.17

The sample of Registered Voters looks to be pretty good. Weighting appears to be fairly correct.
 
AGE IN YRS..............
                                       18-34      35-49      50-64      65+
Weighted Percentage           20%       26%        28%    21%
Unweighted                         117         191         364      423
MoE (+/-%)                       9.06        7.09         5.14     4.76

Here lies a major problem. Based upon other polls and past elections, the 50-64 and 65+ brackets are woefully low. Normally, these are several points higher and the younger brackets lower. This would reduce Trump numbers because he performs better among the older groups.
 

REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS.....................................
 Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
 
                                                  Tea        BrnAgn     CONSERVATIVE Mod/                                  COLLEGE DEG
                                    Tot         Party       Evang        Very        Smwht      Lib       Men     Wom      Yes       No

Weighted Percentage     100%       17%         31%         34%         35%       29%     54%     46%      31%    69%
Unweighted                   508            88           156          173           179        146      306      202       252      256
MoE (+/-%)                  4.35        10.45         7.85          7.45         7.32        8.11     5.60      6.90     6.17     6.13

What a mess this one is. 

Tea Party at 17%, too high. These would go to Cruz.

Born Again Evangelicals, way to high. This would reflect again in a push for Cruz.

Conservative/Moderate, probably about correct.

Men and women..probably about correct. Most forecasts are suggesting that Trump is going to bring out more men, so this would be consistent. 

College level, probably correct.

Bottom line, some of the demographics are out of normal range and would provide Cruz more support than with normal levels. Looks like this was a partial push poll.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 04:28:32 PM
BTW, for the GOP group, only 4% valued gun ownership higher than climate change in the Q poll.  That by itself says there is a huge problem with the sample.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 22, 2015, 06:23:49 PM
What makes you think Trump might will open his mouth and insert his foot sometime over the 6-8 mos between when he is the nominee of he wins the states he is leading in and the general election?  Just because he does that now on a regular basis...

Today Trump said Hillary got schlonged in 2008.  Yes she did but that's not what the leading candidate for President is supposed to say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/12/22/donald-trumps-schlonged-a-linguistic-investigation/
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-chooses-odd-yiddish-vulgarity-to-slam-hillary-clinton/ar-BBnOPb4?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=wispr

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 08:10:17 PM
So what is Trump supposed to say? (Hell, most people did not even know what schlonged meant until the press made a big deal of it.) 

So what if what he said is not supposed to be Presidential? Well, Presidential image ended with Clinton and his whoring ways. And it worsened with O'bummer, though one wonders how it could have gotten any worse? And now with Her Highness, it will get even worse. It's time to end this pc crap.

Guess what? His supporters love it when he talks like that. Why? Because he speaks like then and doesn't give a damn about what the elite thinks,

But since according to the elite on both sides we are nothing more than Vulgarians, racists, nazi's, uneducated rednecks, hicks, homophobes, exnophobes, slobs and whatever else you can think of, maybe we should just do like in corporations and sign proxies giving others the right to vote on our behalf since we are not smart enough to understand what the world is about.

Oh wait, we have been doing that for the last two decades and look what it has got us? Dole, McCain, Romney, Boehner, McConnell, Ryan and all the others.  Guess the elites are just as stupid as us.




Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 22, 2015, 08:52:40 PM
Donald J. Trump Retweeted
Jeff Greenfield ‏@greenfield64 2h2 hours ago

On further review, Trump is right on this. “I got schlonged” is a commonplace NY way of saying: “I lost big time,” w/out genital reference.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 23, 2015, 12:04:22 AM
Sorry, but as a NY Jew born and raised, the word "schlong" pertains to the penis.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 23, 2015, 05:12:25 AM
"Well, Presidential image ended with Clinton and his whoring ways. And it worsened with O'bummer, though one wonders how it could have gotten any worse?"

I agree.  This is one of the reasons I love GW Bush.  Many of us could rightly question his policies but I for one really appreciated and respected his 100% effort at bringing dignity back to the WH.

He kicked the sleaze out the back door.   He led by example. 

I can live with Trump's verbal indiscretions for now.   But if he turns out to be a lib in his policies I won't be able to tolerate it.

Dignity, respect, exemplary behavior, honesty is very important to me.  Without at least a semblance of that we have anarchy.

None of us are perfect but....

 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 07:22:39 AM
Yes, he clearly is saying, penetrated by a penis, orifice unspecified.

This is a gender discriminatory term as a woman could not be at the other end of a schlonging without artificial or surgical adaptation. 

Terrible gender bigotry with the analogy in that the male end is associated with the winning and the female side with losing, getting schlonged.

Along with Megyn Kelly "bleeding out of wherever", is Trump bringing dignity back?  Not so much!  Not exactly the return of Reagan or even George W to the White House.  Even Jimmy Carter was so clean that the admission of lust became a major scandal.


Previous usage Trump can point to for cover:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yurpga7CXDE
NPR in their Geraldine Ferraro obit.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 23, 2015, 10:58:26 AM
So Jeff Greenfield who does not like Trump is not credible. 

Would it have made any difference if Trump had said that Hillary got "screwed" in the election? Probably for the Trump haters..............but for the working class, no.

Actually, Trump's comment was GREAT. He uses a throw away line and the entire media is once again talking about it. More free publicity. Bet the rest of the candidates wish they were getting the publicity. (BTW, publicity is good even if it sounds bad. In this case, it just cements Trump supporters to him. Others will find the whole thing just another media hit job, and only the Trump deniers will jump on it.)

How many people do you actually think knew what schlong meant? Even more, how many really care? And if the media had not jumped on it, few would even know that the statement was ever made.

This is just another diversionary tactic to distract from what Trump is saying because the media and the elitists do not want their apple cart disrupted. Same as with Megyn Kelly and the bleeding comment.  If you remember, Trump had previously made the same comment about a Fox male anchor.  (So maybe the anchor was transgendered.) No one made a fuss at that time. Just when it was the Ice Princess Prima Donna Kelly.

Yes, let's bring back dignity with some weak kneed RINO candidate. That way, no one will pay attention to what is being passed that screws the middle class over again and again.

Let's also keep campaigning on subjects that will never be changed:

1. Abortion. It is here to stay, but it makes a good distraction from what is otherwise going on, and it keeps generating money for those on each side of the issue.

2. Defunding Planned Parenthood. Another distraction which will never be changed, but keeps bringing in money.

3. Balanced budget. Something else that will never be changed, except with tax increases. (Yeah, I know...Trump.)

4. Repeal of ObamaCare. It can never be fully repealed, only modified. After all, there are all these new people with insurance who are subsidized and if repealed, what happens there? Does one simply forget about that now?

5.  Social Security reform. Neither side has the guts to do what is needed, so it will remain the same. But it does remain as another election distraction.

6. Immigration reform. Nothing substantial going to happen there. COC wants the cheap labor.

7. Military spending........more distraction. And more crony capitalism. Think the F-35 brought in to also serve as a replacement for the A-10. No military leader is going to take an F-35 and put it into a Close Air Support role. Too much danger of losing them to ground fire and other weapon systems. That is, even if it can dogfight.

I could go on and on but all of this stuff is designed to keep the American public divided and separated. That way, the DC elites and Wall Street can continue to reap the benefits at the expense of the people.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - New Party
Post by: ppulatie on December 23, 2015, 11:02:19 AM
Let's see. Trump had to provide a no 3rd Party pledge.  What happened?

1.  Bush and others making talk about a 3rd Party run.

2. Bill Kristol now on a 3rd Party run.

What is good for the GOP is not good for others.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2015/12/21/bill-kristol-well-start-new-party-trump-wins-nomination/ (http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2015/12/21/bill-kristol-well-start-new-party-trump-wins-nomination/)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, who is the betting favorite?
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 12:06:30 PM
Strangely, while another guy leads in the Republican polls, Rubio still leads in betting odds, where professionals put their money on the eventual outcome. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

All the candidates seem to be treating Marco Rubio as the front runner as well:
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/marco-rubios-opponents-treating-him-like-the-front-runner/article/2578979
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 12:11:34 PM
Bush and his voter (singular) aren't going to start a new party.  Nobody even wants his endorsement.

Bill Kristol is an individual with freedom of speech, not an official of the Republican party.

As stated with Trump, something like 44 states have a loser law where you can run and lose on the ballot in one party in the primary and then get on the ballot of another party in the general election.  Who does that leave, Romney, Ford, Dole?

PP is successfully pushing over straw men.   )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 23, 2015, 12:26:02 PM
Bill Kristol represents the old GOPe as well as many others. Then there was the DC dinner with Prebius in attendance where the talk was about manipulating the convention to get their candidate in....denied by Prebius of course.

Then you have Super Pacs pushing for a 3rd Party candidate if Trump wins. Also you have the Romney threat of a 3rd Party. And there have been GOP officials make remarks about it was better to support Hillary rather than Trump, also against the pledge to support the GOP nominee. Where there is smoke,  there is fire.

Straw men?   :-D   No I am along with millions others pushing over an old and useless party that exists only to keep itself in power and money.  Just like the old Communist Party in the 1980's. 

It's time for them to go.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 12:49:06 PM
So Jeff Greenfield who does not like Trump is not credible.  

Would it have made any difference if Trump had said that Hillary got "screwed" in the election? Probably for the Trump haters..............but for the working class, no.

Actually, Trump's comment was GREAT. He uses a throw away line and the entire media is once again talking about it. More free publicity. Bet the rest of the candidates wish they were getting the publicity. (BTW, publicity is good even if it sounds bad. In this case, it just cements Trump supporters to him. Others will find the whole thing just another media hit job, and only the Trump deniers will jump on it.)

How many people do you actually think knew what schlong meant? Even more, how many really care? And if the media had not jumped on it, few would even know that the statement was ever made.

This is just another diversionary tactic to distract from what Trump is saying because the media and the elitists do not want their apple cart disrupted. Same as with Megyn Kelly and the bleeding comment.  If you remember, Trump had previously made the same comment about a Fox male anchor.  (So maybe the anchor was transgendered.) No one made a fuss at that time. Just when it was the Ice Princess Prima Donna Kelly.

Yes, let's bring back dignity with some weak kneed RINO candidate. That way, no one will pay attention to what is being passed that screws the middle class over again and again.

Let's also keep campaigning on subjects that will never be changed:

1. Abortion. It is here to stay, but it makes a good distraction from what is otherwise going on, and it keeps generating money for those on each side of the issue.

2. Defunding Planned Parenthood. Another distraction which will never be changed, but keeps bringing in money.

3. Balanced budget. Something else that will never be changed, except with tax increases. (Yeah, I know...Trump.)

4. Repeal of ObamaCare. It can never be fully repealed, only modified. After all, there are all these new people with insurance who are subsidized and if repealed, what happens there? Does one simply forget about that now?

5.  Social Security reform. Neither side has the guts to do what is needed, so it will remain the same. But it does remain as another election distraction.

6. Immigration reform. Nothing substantial going to happen there. COC wants the cheap labor.

7. Military spending........more distraction. And more crony capitalism. Think the F-35 brought in to also serve as a replacement for the A-10. No military leader is going to take an F-35 and put it into a Close Air Support role. Too much danger of losing them to ground fire and other weapon systems. That is, even if it can dogfight.

I could go on and on but all of this stuff is designed to keep the American public divided and separated. That way, the DC elites and Wall Street can continue to reap the benefits at the expense of the people.

You keep defining a coalition less than 50%.  Abortion IS a big deal.  Trump gets that or it wouldn't have been worth his flip-flop.

Defunding Planned Parenthood is fundamental to any positive change on about a dozen levels, one being equal protection under the law if you are not concerned with the illegality and morality of killing and selling off body parts.  It is crony capitalism which is banned in my interpretation of the constitution.  It is also the state establishing a religion.

Megyn Kelly didn't deserve that and you have to be deep into the political world to know beyond that Fox is far right to know that they aren't.  Trump brought on the accusation himself and then demonstrated it.

Schlonging and giving and getting a Lewinski are terms and visions that ought not come out of the Oval Office.  This is 'GREAT' if distraction instead of action is the objective.  " It just cements Trump supporters to him."  Perfect if again your goal is a coaltion far below 50%.  He gets attention and it divides instead of unites.  I know the polls yet keep getting reminded that (as a 1%er says) Trump isn't a serious candidate.

"How many people do you actually think knew what schlong meant?"  - Unlike Crafty, I was born and raised in the midwest, hardly knew a Jew in my childhood, don't speak Hebrew, but I know what schlong is.  Yes he could have said she got fucked or screwed.  Raped is more the meaning; she didn't consent to what Barack did to her in 2008.  It's all still locker room or playground stuff, not Oval Office material.

Let's bring back "Weak kneed RINOs."   - Again, you are capable of arguing against more than an imaginary straw man.  Cruz is a solid conservative, an anti-RINO and Rubio is anything but weak kneed.  He is authentic, tea party, disagrees with you on the edges of only one (important) issue, and is the best communicator in a generation, many say.  

Obamcare is going to fundamentally changed - even if we let Bernie Sanders do it.

Immigration reform is going to happen - unless we nominate someone who loses to Hillary.

Military spending is more than a distraction.  We are disarming while enemies are arming and proliferating.

"all of this stuff is designed to keep the American public divided and separated"  - I know you mean that but it is easily turned around to describe almost everything Trump is saying.

Why not answer two questions on Trump and please link his answer:

a)  If you count families, children etc of the illegals, the number kicked around is 20 million people living among us.  It is his marquee issue, so show us where he specifies how many he will actually round up and send home and exactly how will it be done.  Rubio asks what to do with people who have been here 10-12 years of more which I believe is 60% of them.  What evidence is there to make us believe Trump will send any or all of them home?  When he says, they all go with no answer to how, I don't count that as a serious answer or policy, just a sure way to lose the general election and ensure they all stay.

b)  What are the limits that stop abuse of the private takings clause of Trump's imaginary constitution it the 4th, 5th and 9th amendments of the Bill of Rights no longer apply.  (About my 6th time trying to get this answered.)  What kind of justices will he appoint that also have their own constitution and what else does it say or not say in it?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, low ceiling is still his problem
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 01:13:23 PM
Funny that he runs from inside the party and brings new people in - to destroy it.  Since he is winning in this party, why not reform it from the inside.  Obama is the de facto head of the Dem party.  What is his pull and influence versus Debby Blabbermouth?  Others in the R party are 'plotting' to get their own guy elected, how do you spell wah, wah for crying victimhood?  Meanwhile the candidate offers silence on the other issues important to people like me and hides from specifics on his own issues.  He won't even have to wiggle to shake free of conservatism in the general election.  He never claimed to be one.

Speaking of schlongs, he alternatively could have had the balls to run from outside the two parties in the first place rather than using the building that someone else built.

There has always (in my lifetime) been a contest between some form of RINOs who act like Democrats to get reelected and conservatives.  ( A Choice Not an Echo, 1964, written by a Trump supporter).  Washington isn't run the way we would like because we haven't been winning enough primaries and elections.

And if you do want to win, don't intentionally alienate 60% of the people.

Trump's problems are his own doing and they are the flip side of his strengths.  Like Jeb but in a different way, he is the one who chooses to not be on my side.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 23, 2015, 01:37:28 PM
DMG,

I will reply to your posts later. Time to do some work.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 23, 2015, 02:14:38 PM
DMG,
I will reply to your posts later. Time to do some work.

Understood.  Just voicing my own frustrations.

There is no doubt that Trump is connecting with people on their problems.   I question his solutions.

I ran a for-rent ad for a nice condo in Florida and got no response in 3 weeks.  I ran a craigslist ad offering to pay someone here $20 to serve eviction papers today and got 20 replies in 10 hours counting overnight.  Tried to reach and get someone to do it and still can't get it arranged.  Strange world and strange economy we live in.  No one outside of the rich has money and no one it seems is willing to go out of their way to earn a little.

Everyone i meet in some parts of my life, sports etc., seems to be top 1% rich and everyone I meet in other parts of my life, rentals etc. seems to be dead broke.  What I see is motivation and work-ethic inequality.
Title: Maybe she's just fear mongering to raise money?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 23, 2015, 04:41:28 PM
Hillary Hints At Defeats In Iowa And NH
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on TheHillaryDaily.com on December 23, 2015
On the heels of polls showing Bernie Sanders chopping 15 points off Hillary's lead in Iowa -- narrowing her advantage to 50-45 -- Hillary Clinton has sent out an email to her supporters today (Wednesday, Dec. 23) warning them to brace themselves for the chance that she might lose Iowa or New Hampshire.

In a highly unusual email headlined "If We Lose Iowa Or New Hampshire", Hillary speculates that she might meet defeat in the first two contests with Bernie Sanders.

Urging her supporters to be "realistic" and warning that "winning the nomination is no sure thing," she appeals for money to rev up her campaign.

Anticipating the possibility -- or likelihood -- of one or two early defeats, she writes: "If we lose in Iowa or New Hampshire, we're going to need to dig in and work that much harder to make sure we win the nomination. I'm going to fight as hard as I can to earn every last vote."

The stunning admission that Sanders might capture one or even both of the two earliest states is unprecedented.  Sanders has always led in New Hampshire with RealClearPolitics.com polling average showing him up but 51-43 over the last seven polls.

But, in Iowa, once considered safe for Hillary, the only post-debate poll, by CNN, has her ahead by only 50-45, a dramatic comedown from the lead PPP found prior to the debate of 52-34.

For Hillary to admit, this far in advance, that she might lose Iowa and/or New Hampshire, we can only speculate on what her private polls must be showing.

After Iowa and New Hampshire on the nominating calendar come South Carolina, where Hillary can likely count on a firewall since African-Americans dominate the Democratic contest.  Sanders has repeatedly trailed far behind Hillary there and among black voters.

But then it is on to Nevada and the March 1 primaries.  If Hillary limps into these states, having lost both New Hampshire and Iowa, she can be in real trouble. 

Since the modern primary system was created in 1972, only George McGovern in '72 and Bill Clinton in '92 has ever gotten the Democratic nomination after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire.  Nine times, the candidate who lost the first two states lost the nomination.

Ominous implications for Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 23, 2015, 07:31:29 PM
Dick is fun to read and he does sometimes have a unique take but this:

"Ominous implications for Hillary"

Yeah sure.  I'm holding my breath....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 24, 2015, 06:51:50 AM
Dick is fun to read and he does sometimes have a unique take but this:
"Ominous implications for Hillary"
Yeah sure.  I'm holding my breath....

Hillary copying Bernie on policy and philosophy while potentially losing Iowa and NH to him and yet still beating the R front runner is a reminder to conservatives of how far we have NOT come over the last decade of liberal failure.

A little more detail on that CNN poll favoring Trump.  If you want to win the election you need to pick the guy at 10%, not 39%.  How that is going to happen, I have no idea...  Aren't we a bunch of tough conservatives, not forgiving Rubio for his gang of 8 error, and willing to spend the next decade living the government involved 'Life of Julia' under Pres. Hillary Clinton while she packs the Supreme Court with nine young liberals who could give a rat's ass about our creed and former rights.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Clinton 49, Trump 47   Clinton +2
General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Clinton 46, Cruz 48   Cruz +2
General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton   CNN/ORC   Rubio 49, Clinton 46   Rubio +3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Remember, this was a poll favorable to Trump, and undercounting Rubio, 39-10!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 24, 2015, 08:35:35 AM
Long night crunching numbers. More to follow. But in the schlong view of thought..........guess that the expression has been used before in politics.  And, it was the paragon of virtue Truman holding up the paper.  Much ado about nothing.  But

Trump is finished!!!!  (for the 872nd time)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CW9oHLkWkAAsjqV.jpg)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on December 24, 2015, 08:41:22 AM
Very funny!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 24, 2015, 09:47:20 AM
DMG, To your comments above:

1.   Abortion will NEVER be reversed and that is the reality of the situation. It is used to divide the country and to get political donations for the advocates on each side. It may be an issue to a segment of the right, but most conservatives I know support abortion. It is the moderate conservatism position.

2.   Defunding Planned Parenthood falls in the same category as abortion.

3.   Megyn Kelly did not deserve it? You forget that in the debate she, Baier and Wallace deliberately set up Trump for a fail. First with the pledge and then the war on women. Baier even admitted afterword that they had alerted security and had a plan in place to have Trump forcibly removed. Is that not a set up and deserving of Trump’s reaction?

You also seem to forget that in the minutes earlier in the interview, Trump said the exact same thing about Baier. So was Trump suggesting he was a girl? Or did Trump plan to use it first on Baier so as to be able to use that as an excuse for the comment on Kelly?

You also ignore that Kelly was going after Trump every night on her program. Her attacks and her guests against Trump was at the level of MSNBC going after all Reps. And it continues to today.

But I guess that the above means nothing……

4.   Schlonging should not be coming out of the White House, etc.  And the less than 50% support. And Trump is not a serious candidate.

At least someone has the balls to attack the Dems, instead of laying down with them. And the support? Each poll brings him closer to 50% levels, even with 13 candidates in the race. If nominated, then most of those not supporting him should vote for him in the general election. If not, then blame them for a Hillary presidency.

Not a serious candidate? Even the pundits have given up on that argument.

5.   Cruz and Rubio? I almost wish that either would win and then watch what happens. They will flip and flop all over the place like they do now. Under them, TPP moves forward, Amnesty is granted. HIBI visas increase. Rubio gets us into a Syrian way and maybe one with Russia.

You complain about Trump changing his views from years ago, but ignore the Cruz/Rubio flip flops and also their connections to Big Money and the Super Pacs.

6.   How will Obamacare be changed? Certainly not repealed. It will have to be a compromise between the parties and Cruz has so totally pissed off his side, he could not get anything through. Rubio? Depends upon who is in his pockets at the time.

7.   Immigration reform. If you want Amnesty, both Cruz and Rubio will deliver it, no matter what they claim now.

8.   Military spending must be done with an eye to the force structure, not by politicians who push their local industry products. We have to ask serious questions about what is needed to meet the threats. First among the questions is “what is the threat”? What is needed to meet the threat?  We have to quit procuring weapon systems based upon the last war fought.

Right now, we have far too much “support” personnel and not enough shooters. We need to focus on increasing the shooters and design the weapon systems to support them. We don’t design weapon systems that take forever to bring into service and cost hundreds of millions per unit like the F-35 which appears to have serious deficiencies in what it can do?

9.   How to get rid of the illegals? You want full details. And the second he releases all details, everyone attacks him and starts to figure out ways to ensure any plans do not get implemented.

This is classic “Art of the Deal” Trump. You tell them what you can do, and then when they are ready, the negotiation occurs on what will happen. For example, with the proposal I just finished, I let the client know what I could do, what I brought to the table. Did I provide details of how I would do it? No way. Did I give them for a price what I could do the work with a small profit? No way. I provide them a price that is commiserate with the value of what I do. Trump is doing the same thing.

10.   You and I have different views on the Eminent Domain issue and the public interest which we will never agree on. As to what type of Judges to appoint, well that worked out well with Souter, Kennedy and Roberts, didn’t it?

11.   As to Trump bringing in new people into the party who will destroy it, the people that Trump is appealing to are the same people that the GOP has “claimed” that they wanted to bring into the Party. These people are more moderate and not purity ideologues. They come with their own desires, opinions and needs. Yet the GOP wants them to convert to the GOP fully and without retaining their own views. And if they do not convert, then the GOP does not want them. No wonder the GOP keeps losing.

The GOP left its base long ago. With people like Ryan, McConnell, Boehner, McCain, Romney and the other fools running things, they will not appeal to the base. That is why the GOP cannot win nationally any longer.  And until they change, they will continue to lose, and that is if they can even remain a viable party.

Parties must change to reflect the wishes and the views of the electorate, especially their base. If they don’t change, they will become more and more ineffective in the future as the base leaves them which is now occurring.  That is what is happening with the GOP and the Dems now.


BTW, when Trump made the Schlong comment, he knew exactly what he was doing. He was baiting Hillary and setting a trap which she has fallen into. She played the woman card as she loves to do when her position on something is weak or worse. Now, Trump can nail her on the woman card, doing something that no other candidate would ever do. That is bringing up the contradictions in her “support for woman”, and especially with issues like rape. Trump can beat her over the head on how Hillary would support Bill with the Bimbo eruptions. And it will be fun to watch.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on December 24, 2015, 11:09:32 AM
PP,
I assume you know that photo is faked?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 24, 2015, 11:39:43 AM
 :-D

Damn, you caught it!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 24, 2015, 01:32:35 PM
DMG.... I suppose the technical term would be "internment camps, pending repatriation." If you're here illegally, you have to go. You're already a criminal by legal definition and have no right to a voice, a hearing, or any other right other than to be repatriated post-haste.

I don't know what part of that is unclear, but I understand why people don't like that... because they have personal family members that will be deported. Too bad. Go back and do it legally, just like I had to with my own damn daughter. 1000's in legal bills and about two years in waiting.

Illegal aliens can pound sand as can their supporters.
Title: TrumpClinton poll: DEAD HEAT
Post by: ccp on December 24, 2015, 05:51:15 PM
Wow.   I think it is a CNN poll.

PP, check this out:

https://gma.yahoo.com/video/poll-results-show-trump-clinton-234317361.html

Crude grade school language "trumps" lies, sleaze, corruption  :-D :-o :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 25, 2015, 08:14:10 AM
ccp,

I saw that but did not post it. I did not want to ruin DMG's Christmas.  :-D

Much of the difference in the polls are the assumptions being made about turnout. If 2008 or 2012 election turnouts are the basis for the assumptions, then there is a huge problem. With 2008, we saw massive turnout for O'Bummer that had not been seen before. And with 2012, we saw a lack of GOP turnout due to Romney.

Can Trump turn out the numbers? All appearances so far seem to indicate yes. (Contrary to the NYT article last week, he does have a large GOTV effort in all the states. It is just "unconventional" from previous efforts.) Will the new turnout be greater than the GOP non-Trump stay at homes?  That will be the question.
Title: The bookies vs. the pollsters
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 25, 2015, 10:04:02 AM
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4c912406-a5b1-11e5-a91e-162b86790c58.html#axzz3vAottJQ2

Look beyond the polls for the real odds on Donald Trump

A canny Scots acquaintance observed the other day, “you can lie to a pollster any time you want but you don’t lie to your bookmaker.” Anybody can lay off or hedge bets, but his fundamental point has validity, never more so as the 2016 presidential election gets closer.

Public opinion polls are a dime a dozen but some have shown, as the Republican Donald Trump repeatedly asserts, that he could beat Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, next November. Others have suggested that Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, the two Republican senators apparently on the rise, could run her close.

The betting shops, however, paint a different picture. The higher messrs Trump, Rubio and Cruz rise in the GOP, the heavier favourite Mrs Clinton becomes to win it all. It probably helps her that she has established a dominant lead over her only real challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders, who seemed a bit of a threat in the summer. As it stands a repetition of 2008, when she was sandbagged by Barack Obama en route to the nomination, appears unlikely.
She has also been campaigning pretty much under the radar, so much attention having been devoted to the Republican contest, which in turn, as Mr Trump says with every waking moment, is all about the polls — where he sits on top.

The problem is with the polls themselves, both generically and specifically. Everybody, not least the reporters who now use them as the crutch without which they could not write or say a word, should read Professor Jill Lepore’s damning dissection of their reliability in the New Yorker magazine last month.
Initially, in the days where Thomas Dewey “beat” Harry Truman — as the Chicago Tribune so famously miscalled the 1948 presidential election on its front page — there was a fascination with polling. The very notion that ordinary people could be asked for their opinions was seductive, with upwards of 90 per cent of those approached responding. Today, that percentage is in single-digits — and not only because half the country now uses only mobile phones, difficult for pollsters to reach, and not landlines.

Polling’s demographic models look increasingly suspect and their samples smaller and smaller, often as few as 300-400 people. Of those, some respondents surely lie about their opinions or indeed whether they intend to vote at all (Mr Trump’s supporters are believed not to be regular voters, which may be true, but the evidence is not exactly persuasive).

Also, polls have focused almost exclusively on the Republican contest and Republican voters in the first two states where actual ballots will be cast, Iowa and New Hampshire. Attempts have been made to extrapolate such findings to the general election, but, again, they are inherently suspect. They have tended to show even the rank outsiders in the Republican field within spitting distance of Mrs Clinton, which defies credulity.

A cruise through the betting websites (PaddyPower, Bovada, Intrade, the University of Iowa’s futures contracts and so on) paints a much less volatile — though not static — picture, in which Mrs Clinton has strengthened her standing. PaddyPower at the moment makes her the 8/11 favourite to win it all in November, against Mr Rubio at 5/1, Mr Trump at 6/1 and Mr Cruz at 6/1. That translates into giving her a 55-58 per cent chance of becoming the next president. The University of Iowa market puts it slightly higher at just over 60 per cent.

Using the US method of expressing odds, in which the number 100 means evens and a minus number reflects odds on — in other words, that it is more likely to happen — Bovada has Mrs Clinton at -130, up from -110 in August.

She is trailed by Mr Rubio at 400, Mr Trump at 600 and Mr Cruz at 1000*. It may be noted that the oddsmakers rank Mr Trump only second favourite to win the GOP nomination, in sharp contrast to the opinion polls that have him ahead by streets. They must have some faith that the party establishment — which loathes both Messrs Trump and Cruz — will find a way of asserting itself.

Of course stuff does happen and change the odds, as when people actually cast a vote rather than express opinions. Before the Iowa caucuses in 2008 Mrs Clinton was given a 70 per chance of winning the Democratic nomination against Mr Obama with 25 per cent. Even after the caucuses, which he won, she was given a 52-44 per cent edge. By April, however, with several big state primaries remaining in her strongholds, he was north of 80 per cent while she was logging in at barely 12 per cent.

Stuff could happen again. The populist anti-establishment wave sweeping over the Republicans could engulf the wider electorate. The Clinton name could prove a liability, just as the Bush one has to Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor whose campaign is flailing, especially if the mantra of change again takes hold. Terrorists could strike again at home and the Middle East deteriorate further, if that is possible. The economy could turn sour, although the Federal Reserve does not think so. All the demographic factors favouring Mrs Clinton (with women, minorities of all colours and sexual persuasions) will be worth less if people do not vote. Pigs might even fly.

But the bookmakers, who generally win, calculate all this in laying their odds. If only the pollsters, proven so wrong in too many elections around the world to count, could do the same
Title: A long piece on the merits or not of polls
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 25, 2015, 10:15:19 AM
second post

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/16/politics-and-the-new-machine 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 25, 2015, 12:09:34 PM
I am really beginning to love this!!!! Here is why:

The arguments against Trump.

1. He is not going to run. He is just seeking publicity. Oops, he announced.

2. He is not going to file the preliminary paperwork. This is all a game. Oops, he did.

3. He is not going to file his financials. He is running a bluff.  Oops, he did.

4. He is not a serious candidate.

5. He is only at 7%. No one supports him. He will not go any higher.

6. Trump is now at 15%. That is his ceiling. He can't go higher.

7. Trump's disapproval ratings are about 70%. He only gets about a 30% approval. With his negatives, he can't go any higher.

8. The Fox debate and his performance was pitiful. He will lose support.

9. Trump is at 20+%. He has hit the ceiling and he cannot go any higher.

10. Trumps approval ratings are up to 40%. Negatives are 60%. He can't go any higher.

11.Head to Head Trump against Hillary and Hillary wins by 20%. Trump can't win the election.

12. Trump's Kelly comments.........he is finished.

13. Trump only appeals to lo-fo voters. He cannot go higher with them.

14. Trump at 30%. He is at his ceiling. These are online polls. They are not accurate.

15. Trump at 38%. Let's quote Q showing him at 28% and running behind Hillary. No one will know.

16. We can't let Trump win. Run a 3rd Party or else support Hillary.

17. The schlong statement is not Presidential. Trump is finished.

18. The bookies are betting against Trump. Bookies are winners so they know what is going on.

19. Trump supporters will not go out and vote.

I wonder what the next round of excuses and rationalizations will be.
Title: Re: TrumpClinton poll: DEAD HEAT
Post by: DDF on December 25, 2015, 02:02:37 PM
Wow.   I think it is a CNN poll.

PP, check this out:

https://gma.yahoo.com/video/poll-results-show-trump-clinton-234317361.html

Crude grade school language "trumps" lies, sleaze, corruption  :-D :-o :lol:

When Clinton says that she "really deplores the tone of his campaign," that can only be a good thing.

Noteworthy is the fact that Hillary was all too silent while Bill was showing off the presidential cigar collection. Who is generating a war on women? It isn't Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on December 25, 2015, 02:59:09 PM
DDF

The war on women attitude is exactly what Trump is prepared to attack Hillary on. He is setting her up for the kill. Any other Rep nominee would be too afraid to go there.

I cannot wait for her and Trump to debate. He will get her off the "canned sound bites" and she will totally lose it. That will be the point that Trump wins the election.  (This should have happened with O'Bummer in 2012, but Romney or the others were not the "men" to do it.)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 25, 2015, 03:12:26 PM
Well, if Trump is the Rep nominee, "From your lips to God's ear."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on December 25, 2015, 09:06:04 PM
I am really beginning to love this!!!! Here is why:


19. Trump supporters will not go out and vote.



If ever there was an election that I am going to make sure I vote in, this will be it.

"If Trump is the Rep nominee..." First the chief gripe was that he couldn't beat Hillary....not it's  "From your lips to God's ear."

Trump is ruffling people's feathers. I like it. It's refreshing. As it should be.

Trump is going to win this....or Hillary will destroy it.

I have to wonder how the majority of Republicans feel to be put in the independent voters' places and be forced to support one of our candidates for once. It seems, they don't much like it.

It makes me smile.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Clinton
Post by: DDF on December 27, 2015, 10:28:08 AM
There's been much chatter on here about Trump being able to get the better of Clinton, but nothing concering Clinton possibly being a 3rd party candidate. Why not? She certainly carries a good amount of baggage.

Go Trump.

Clinton, Sanders....have fun splitting your voter base too.

http://www.allenbwest.com/2015/12/look-which-democrat-is-now-eyeing-an-independent-run-for-president/
Title: WaPo surprises
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 29, 2015, 10:48:27 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-is-right-bill-clintons-sordid-sexual-history-is-fair-game/2015/12/28/70a26bdc-ad92-11e5-b711-1998289ffcea_story.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 31, 2015, 04:18:57 PM
Gave $20 each to Cruz and Rubio today , , ,
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 01, 2016, 09:33:58 AM
Gave $20 each to Cruz and Rubio today , , ,

 :-D

Everyone should do everything they can right now to make a difference - before we get to that point where we spend the rest of the year and the rest of our lives whining about the lousy choices on the ballot.
Title: Beeting sites more accurate than polls
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 08, 2016, 12:06:32 PM
Hat tip to Big Dog for this one:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/bettors_know_better_than_pundits
Title: Re: Betting sites more accurate than polls
Post by: DougMacG on January 08, 2016, 01:46:45 PM
Hat tip to Big Dog for this one:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_john_stossel/bettors_know_better_than_pundits

Rubio is the GOP betting favorite still.  Trump leads Rubio in some polls by 41 to about 10.  Hillary is flawed.  11 cents buys a dollar of a President Trump.  A tenth of a cent buys a dollar of Fiorina payout.  Our Trump supporter predicts Rubio over Trump but then Hillary over Rubio.  This is better than sports betting.

Cruz fell below Trump since the posting.  There is quite a bit of game left to be played - or whatever Yogi Berra used to say.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Latest Fox poll
Post by: DougMacG on January 09, 2016, 09:12:44 AM
In the GOP contest, it is the same 1,2,3, Trump, Cruz, Rubio.

Trump has improved in the general election matchup with Hillary because she is down, Cruz has improved, but Rubio still matches up the best.

Take the one of these three who matches up the best.  Otherwise take one of the two plus term Governors to know they are ready to govern, manage bureaucracy and so on - but not Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, John Kasich or Chris Christie.
-------------------------------------
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
RCP Average   12/16 - 1/7   --   --    Clinton 44.6   Trump 42.6   Clinton +2.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html#polls
RCP Average   11/16 - 12/20   --   --   Sanders 44.3   Trump 42.3   Sanders +2.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html
RCP Average   12/16 - 1/7   --   --   Rubio 46.5   Clinton 43.5   Rubio +3.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_sanders-5564.html
RCP Average   10/29 - 12/20   --   --   Rubio 44.0   Sanders 43.0   Rubio +1.0

In 2012 the 'experts' told us we were fools for not believing the polls.

And don't be surprised if Sanders is the Dem nominee.  He also matches up best.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 09, 2016, 09:26:40 AM
" whatever Yogi Berra used to say":  If I am not mistaken it was "It ain't over until its over"  :-)

Stunned at how well Sanders is showing in these match ups!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 09, 2016, 09:39:08 AM
It's hard to imagine a scenario where Trump loses the nomination.  But people keep trying:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/opinion/campaign-stops/how-donald-trump-loses.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fross-douthat&action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection&_r=1

Cruz consolidates Iowa, knocks out Huck, Carson, Santorum and beats Trump in the south.  That takes away Trump magic and inevitability, makes him one of the pack.

But in New Hampshire, the people who seem to hate Trump the most, Kasich and JEB, stay in, split potential Rubio vote and enable a Trump win.  If Rubio edges them out he takes second or third, Trump gets a win, but then they drop and other states and other regions like mountains and west come into play.

If Kasich can win Ohio and have other midwest strength, that continues the vote split an Rubio never emerges.

I don't know what Pat was saying about so many candidates being an establishment conspiracy.  The split of support clearly favors Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on January 10, 2016, 12:45:05 PM
I found this interesting.

http://marylandreporter.com/2015/09/03/irs-data-again-shows-taxpayers-leaving-maryland/

This will have a lot to do with the voting block this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/28/the-states-that-are-seeing-a-boom-in-population-and-the-states-that-arent/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 12, 2016, 11:28:49 AM
3 scenarios for the GOP, none seem very likely but one will happen:

1)  Trump's vote comes out as strong as his polling numbers or better.  He wins Iowa, wins by more in NH, continues to grow, wins SC, FL, etc. and truly becomes the front runner.

2)  Cruz wins Iowa by more than expected, wins southern states and places better than expected elsewhere like NH.  Becomes the darling of the conservative movement and a real contender.  Knocks out or knocks down Trump with his strength.

3)  Cruz beats Trump in Iowa.  Rubio or could be someone else places third in Iowa, much closer to the top two than expected, takes first or second in NH, better than expected and starts to become the story.

My bet in order of likelihood is 3)  Rubio or someone else, 2) Cruz, and then 1) Trump, meaning this race right now is exactly backwards.  I also have money on Hillary not being the Dem nominee...

Next debate is this Thursday.  Some of the questions each have to address are obvious (like are you eligible to President).  How well they handle them the obvious important.  Who will rise above the pettiness?  Who will look and sound the most Presidential?  Who will send us chasing shiny objects?  We are still looking for a blunder or a gaffe (or scandal).  I don't expect one.  Will one of the questioners become the story (again)?  Everything until now was pre-game.  The image they leave going forward combined with how the early state results start coming in will determine the outcome.
Title: NRO Cruz vs. Rubio
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 13, 2016, 03:35:44 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/429640/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-republican-nomination
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 14, 2016, 10:05:10 AM
With Iran seizing and humiliating our sailors, tonight could be a perfect moment for Rubio to hit Cruz with a full broadside on his repeated votes against increasing military spending.

For good measure he could go after Trump for his open sympathy to the Russian-Iranian axis.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 14, 2016, 11:28:57 AM
With Iran seizing and humiliating our sailors, tonight could be a perfect moment for Rubio to hit Cruz with a full broadside on his repeated votes against increasing military spending.

For good measure he could go after Trump for his open sympathy to the Russian-Iranian axis.

Interesting, or at least he may go after them in counterattack.

George Will and Nate Silver were beating up on Rubio today in different ways.  The Will peice is all over the map, never stopping to complete a full point, immigration, Libya, sugar and something else.  Sugar is one case of Rubio failing a purity test.  Libya is more complicated than that.  Immigration on Rubio has already been beaten to death; he would probably have a 75% market share with that, and I didn't follow his last complaint, but it wasn't the parking tickets. The Nate Silver piece is more about how every other candidate still sees Rubio as their main threat.  Hard to say that is a negative on Rubio.  Rubio at some point and timing is everything, silver argues, Rubio will have to make a show of strength.  The word is that Bush and Christie will gang up on Rubio giving him more time and attention to make his case and make all these questions fully vetted.  Trump and Cruz are expected fight and each other.  Rubio may be the one who is not seen as attack his own challengers, hopefully just making his own case to be President.  In all cases it will be important to see how each is able to stand their ground on the mostly predictable challenges they face.

Rush today lamented how hard Republicans are taking down one of their own (Rubio).  I think it is too soon to write his 2016 political obituary.  So far he always seems to hold his own in debates.

I wonder if a questioner will try to expose limits on the front runner's knowledge.

Ben Carson says he will push harder to get his own message out.

http://www.unionleader.com/George-Will-Rubios-record-of-misjudgment
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-week/?#livepress-update-23079219

Take a look at Nate Silver's ideology map. (Who is most electable?)
https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/silver-gop-five-ring-circus-jan141.png
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 15, 2016, 08:49:38 AM
Great debate last night.    Comments?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 15, 2016, 12:10:24 PM
well I posted on the other thread no one except Christy answered the questions on the national debt or social security shortfalls.

The debt is to me the biggest threat the US faces.  If capitalism cannot address this we are in for a big mess to say the least.

I thought Cruz sounded bad on NYC but I thought it ironic that Trump was criticizing him for being insulting.

Other than that Christy was decent as was Kasich though we know they are conciliators.

Bush just cannot accept he is done.

Boy Hank Greenberg must have really felt like he owed the Bush family big time for bailing out AIG to be stupid enough to give Jeb $10 million at this point.

Talk about throwing good money after bad.....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 15, 2016, 03:54:38 PM
I thought Bush did well when he challenged Trump to "change his mind" on a blanket Muslim moratorium", but although he is done for he won't go.

Kasich-- done for, time to go though he looks to do well enough in NH that he won't.

Dr. Ben:  I continue to like and respect him him and think he has many admirable qualities that would serve him well, but this is simply a bridge too far for him.  Time to go.

Christie:  A good candidate in many ways but , , ,

I very much liked Rubio's formulation of "If we can't figure out who you are you aren't getting in"; this is far defter than Trump's blanket moratorium.   I liked his articulation of strategy against Islamo fascism (Intel finds them, Military kills them, the captured go to Gitmo).  I VERY much liked his articulation that the EDC is not fit to be CiC for her mishandling of national secrets and for lying to the parents of the fallen of Benghazi.  He looked bad for his cheap shot attacks on Christie.  Attacked Cruz well on immigration but I felt a certain  :roll: because we have already been through this many times.  Of all the candidates, Rubio articulates and inspires best with the American Creed and this is something I believe to be quite important.  The timing of his attack on Cruz about votes against military spending (as predicted by me here yesterday) got vaporized in the aftermath of Christie's attack on squabbling senators (Cruz and Rubio)

Cruz, overall a very strong night (IIRC Frank Luntz called him the clear winner) but he got creamed on the NY values 911 counter riff from Trump for which he should have been ready and for which they were plenty of good rejoinders, but he certainly spanked Donald on the birther issue (breaking Donald's alpha aura for once), though not in a way sufficient to put it to bed I suspect.  Definite KO of the "secret Goldman Sachs loan" issue.   Likely to go over most people's heads, but he was quite strong on his tax policy and definitely bested Rubio there.  Very shrewd to take advantage of his opening statement to talk about our captured navy sailors and military strength.  I think it safe to say Rubio WILL be returning to his anti military spending votes.

Trump was Trump.  The tone of his NY 911 words was both effective on the issue in question with Cruz (which in point of fact was rather insignificant IMHO) but also in that he actually looked like a man of some emotional depth for a moment.

Title: Does Bernie have hemeroids?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 16, 2016, 08:30:41 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/clinton-surrogate-to-demand-sanders-release-medical-records-217880
Title: Morris: Trump and Cruz won
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 16, 2016, 08:51:41 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/who-won-the-debate-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert-17/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

"In a two way match up Cruz beats Trump by 8."
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 17, 2016, 05:31:24 AM
I think Cruz would destroy Hillary in a debate.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 17, 2016, 07:53:52 AM
I agree.

He really is as fg smart as people say IMHO.  I watched him the other night after the debate (i.e. after 150 seriously intense minutes) and engage with Frank Luntz's focus group on the Kelly files.  He engaged easily with the people and as things warmed he spoke with a flow of consciousness that really impressed me with his ability to keep track of various details, recognize the themes, and put them together in a coherent strategy.  He has what it takes to be a bloodhound of logic and lead the American people along Hillary's incredibly sneaky and disingenuous spoor to her pravda protected lair and drive her out of it and tree.

I like Marco Rubio A LOT, but in the last day or two I have whiffed a scent of "I wish he were a bit older and more seasoned".    I know something of the IQ that Cruz has rubbed elbows with for pretty much all of his adult life (e.g. clerking for the Chief Justice of the SCOTUS is a REALLY BIG FG DEAL and one operates in a truly extraordinary environment) and even the people there who loathe his views fear his intellect.

Watch those clips and IMHO you can see a man who planned to be where he is right now upon his arrival in the US Senate.  Appreciate the details of his defense of his loan from Goldman Sachs.    With little time on the Texas political scene (how much attention does Solicitor General get?) he took on a man worth over $200 who bankrolled his campaign with $25M of his own money.  To do this Ted (and his wife) bet pretty much EVERYTHING they had.  (and yes Rubio did something similar against Crist).   His willingness to piss off pretty much the entirety of Washington was purposeful and shows no little testicular fortitude.

For all the extremist bomb thrower tropes thrown at him rattle him not at all.  Watch him on Leno.  He does not rattle.  He calmly gives Jay room and then calmly earns the audience's respect with his calm, articulate, and reasoned manner.

Title: Morris: Women abandoning Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 17, 2016, 08:52:44 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/brunch-alert-the-week-before-hillary-died-weekly-wrap-up/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 17, 2016, 08:46:27 PM
I have been traveling, crossed paths with DT in IA, now at the Top of the Rockies mostly out of my internet range.  Meanwhile you guys went all Cruz on me...

These were some comments I typed after the debate, a lttle dated at this point:

I listened to most of it.  A good night for each in his own way.  (Some of Crafty's comments helped fill the gaps of what I missed at the beginning.)

First, I still see Kasich, Fiorina and Carson as good potential VP picks.  

It seems to me that Christie's pretend tough guy demeanor is a space already occupied by Trump.  Christie would need Rick Perry's economic record to match his big talk, and he doesn't have that.

The top 3 all did what they needed to stay top 3 in that order, Trump, Cruz, Rubio, for now, though seeds are planted already that we may notice later if/when things begin shifting.

Cruz looked good, a lot of conservatives think he won.

Cruz has answered the million dollar loan question from Goldman Sachs question perfectly but he is losing at any moment where that is the topic.  Most of us don't have an open million in a stock account or make a million combined a year.  

Trump was masterful with his defense of the people during 9/11 - but that wasn't the question.  Collectively NY politics is far left.  The easy turnaround by Trump  exposes something in Cruz; he has a sort of code speech to conservatives similar to what liberals have talking to their own.  He says to a SC crowd, you know what I mean by NY politics.  They do and I know what he means, but that is code aimed at conservatives.  Same with his attack Rubio by linking him over and over with Schumer.  That rings the bell for hard core conservatives, but they already know that about Rubio and it doesn't reach any further to people want one side to try to reach agreements with the other side.  What is missing is to fully explain why our way is better, not just to point out the divide. 

Cruz's short history of standing alone on principle displays some good character qualities, but not leadership when the other lawmakers don't follow.

The VAT tax argument is important to me.  Rubio asked my question about it.  What is it that stops some future leftist President of Congress (certain to eventually follow) from raising the VAT tax rate way up in the future once it is in place?  The answer is nothing stops them and they will do exactly that for sure.   Look at their history; look at their intentions. Cruz could not and did not answer that (so now I pass it to Crafty).  Rubio effectively invoked Pres Reagan for opposing the VAT along with his reasons to oppose it.  Cruz noted that Art Laffer endorses it.  Laffer is right; this would be great for growth if it were enacted, but that is not to say that it is politically realistic, or if it was, wise to do knowing your opponents will most certainly raise the rates up in the future.  Cruz's plan as it sits raises too little revenue even under dynamic scoring to get passed the deficit hawks, without an equally bold set of spending cuts.  Gutting defense doesn't get you there either.  Liberals aren't going to go along with repealing those other taxes.  What is it in our politics that makes people think we are about to lower the top marginal income tax rate to 10% and let people making a billion a year keep 90%.  This isn't the time in the political process to pose wouldn't it be great ideas.  We are about to make a decision that affects us for the rest of our lives.  What have we seen in politics that makes us think if Ted Cruz proposes even R's will get behind.  What bill of his has he had a moderate sign on with that makes us think this is possible?  I haven't seen it.  Instead the table is set for Hillary or the Dem nominee to correctly point out huge tax cuts for the rich. I don't mind that criticism if he is going to win the argument but nothing in recent political history indicates that is the case.
Title: The dem debate in one image
Post by: G M on January 17, 2016, 10:12:18 PM
(https://mobile.twitter.com/jtLOL/status/688923269563547652)

https://mobile.twitter.com/jtLOL/status/688923269563547652
Title: Dem (darn) debate
Post by: ccp on January 18, 2016, 04:26:47 AM
Did you notice how many bathroom breaks, ah, oh, I mean, commercial, breaks there were?
Title: Christie loose with the facts
Post by: ccp on January 18, 2016, 05:04:51 AM
As noted before i don't follow state or local politics, the plan is to get the hell out of this state (like half of the people who live here) as soon as possible.  The only thing I can say for certain is that I think he has held the line on taxes.   Once he is gone the frothing at the mouths Democrats, and public and private unions will be hitting the election cycle like a D day invasion with there marines attacking the entire state from all fronts, land, air, and sea/

That all said this sounds more like it.  I don't recall Christy being a big backer of gun rights:

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/christie-lied-record-national/2016/01/17/id/709837/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 18, 2016, 03:40:02 PM
Any post debate polls?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on January 18, 2016, 07:16:47 PM
Any post debate polls?

I looked today. All I found were dated the 16th.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 19, 2016, 10:54:50 AM
Love the headline:  "Lenin vs. Nurse Ratched"

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/261506/democratic-partys-choice-lenin-or-nurse-ratched-daniel-greenfield#.Vp4zTXZaZOM.facebook
Title: Morris: It is becoming a two way race
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 19, 2016, 11:40:36 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/moving-towards-a-two-way-gop-race-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on January 19, 2016, 12:52:10 PM
Love the headline:  "Lenin vs. Nurse Ratched"

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/261506/democratic-partys-choice-lenin-or-nurse-ratched-daniel-greenfield#.Vp4zTXZaZOM.facebook

I saw "Ho Chi Minh vs. Imelda Marcos"
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 20, 2016, 02:19:29 PM
If Hillary Loses
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on January 19, 2016
The contrast between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, startlingly evident in their debate Sunday night, could not be clearer. While devotees of the establishment can tell themselves that Clinton held her own, it is clear she did not.

Sanders had all the passion, anger, force and emotion on his side, and the best Clinton could do was to try to keep it in the park as her rival hit ball after ball. Since primaries are about motivation in getting out the vote, the Vermont senator has it all over Clinton.

So what happens if she:

(a) loses Iowa;

(b) loses New Hampshire;

(c) falls behind Sanders in the national polls and Donald Trump or Ted Cruz in the head-to-heads?

The Democratic howls of concern will be deafening. "She's blowing it again," will be the least of what they will say. Democrats will feel trapped with a candidate who is showing before their eyes that she cannot even win a primary, much less a general election.

Some will worry that Sanders, should he be nominated, will be as weak a candidate as George McGovern was in 1972 or Barry Goldwater proved to be in 1964. Others will think that Clinton might skate through with the aid of superdelegates, setting up a replay of 1968 with Sanders winning the primaries and the party bosses nominating Clinton.

All Democrats will be looking frantically for a way out.

Meanwhile, the FBI will amass evidence that the former secretary of State acted illegally in sending or receiving classified material over a non-secure email server. And it will investigate the uncomfortably close nexus between donations to the Clinton Foundation, speaking fees to the Clintons and State Department actions.

In the end, the decision as to whether to indict a presidential candidate in the middle of an election will rest with the Justice Department and, indirectly, with the president.

If Clinton is cruising to the nomination, winning the primaries and running well against her likely Republican opponent, they will likely decide that indicting her would be an undue interference with the political process.

But if Sanders does his job and the race is close and Clinton is behind her general election challenger, then all bets are off.

There will be a frantic scramble to head off the certain defeat that would come either through nominating Bernie Sanders or a badly beaten up Hillary Clinton. Because of the lateness of the hour, no new candidate could qualify delegates to form slates in the primary states. The pressure will grow on Clinton to withdraw and release her delegate slates to another candidate: Joe Biden. Should she refuse, the chances of her indictment -- or the threat of it -- might increase.

The party could try to get Martin O'Malley to turn his delegates into Biden slates. Or the Democrats could do worse than to nominate O'Malley.

All is possible in a post-Clinton world.

To make matters worse for Clinton, the former secretary stupidly boxed herself in on ObamaCare. Trying to frame Sanders's "Medicare for All" alternative as "starting over," she pleaded for staying with ObamaCare rather than making a new departure. In doing so, she opened herself up to an attack on the issue.

Now, anyone who feels that premiums are too high, deductibles too large and co-payments too expensive -- despite their overall support for the program -- has to see Sanders as offering a hope of improvement and Clinton as being wed to the status quo. Her argument -- that we should build on ObamaCare rather than start over -- is the kind of inside-the-Beltway rationalization that works well with people who are not in trouble or in pain.

The future is bleak for Mrs. Clinton.
Title: Even CNN is reporting this now , , ,
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 20, 2016, 02:25:42 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/hillary-clinton-emails-server-classified-ig-report/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 20, 2016, 04:18:01 PM
She must have some sort of personality disorder.

Narcissistic?

Psychopathic?

I am not sure but she ain't normal.

I remember reading a book on psychopaths.  One trait they have is they lie without any conscience and are perfectly comfortable lying even when everyone in the room knows they are lying and they know everyone knows they are lying.  They just will not stop.

This is her.

Well, we have said before she will have to be literally dragged out of the race kicking and screaming like a banshi before she will get off the damn stage.

But to Crafty's point - even CNN is now reporting this.   :-D :-o  The signs are growing that this may FINALLY get to big for even the worst Democrat hacks to ignore.

There is a God who is watching afterall  :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on January 20, 2016, 04:22:18 PM
Clinton with this, and Sanders with "I believe in redistribution," even the most liberal of voters won't be keen on voting for Sanders, because they don't believe in wealth redistribution so much that they want to pay for it themselves....

The Republicans are going to have a banner year if they can get Trump followers on board.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 20, 2016, 04:28:11 PM
Gutfield riffed today about Bill servicing the females and Hillary' server and the emails , , , or something like that  :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 20, 2016, 05:25:42 PM
ccp:  ... psychopaths.  One trait they have is they lie without any conscience and are perfectly comfortable lying even when everyone in the room knows they are lying and they know everyone knows they are lying.  They just will not stop.  This is her.


That is why I cringed when there was talk by the Benghazi victims' families that she should take a lie detector test about what she said / didn't say to them.  I don't think psychopaths or pathological liars are affected by lying.  To them it's just breathing.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Jan 2016
Post by: DougMacG on January 21, 2016, 09:21:29 AM
Trump has a huge GOP lead in Florida among many other places. (Mentioned in the Rubio thread)

Cruz is having problems gaining traction on Trump but has solidified second place.  The strange birther charge slowed him and Trump's Sarah Palin endorsement cuts right into Cruz's presumed strength.  (There is no prize for second place.)

Rubio is still 3rd nationally, not gaining at all, staying relevant but ONLY if he can make a move up at some point, meaning soon.

Rubio still has the best general election matchup numbers of any of them.  
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Why does that not seem to matter to anyone / everyone conservative who wants to win?  I don't know.  Hard to say it is still too early for polls to matter.

Trump trails commie-socialist Sanders by 15 points!  http://www.scribd.com/doc/295919133/NBC-WSJ-January-Poll  So stay on the current path and we can say about the leftist Obama years, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

Bush, Christie, Kasich and Fiorina have GOP still polling nationally at 2.4 - 4.8%.  Huckabee, Paul and Santorum even less. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html  
Make a plan to win (and you didn't), so get out of the way.  Now!  Each one hates the idea of a Trump nomination or Presidency and yet everything they are doing is helping him by diluting the rest of the field.  If this race comes down to Trump, Cruz, Rubio, let's clear the field and see how that goes.

My advice to Trump supporters.  Stay with him right up until voting time if you believe he is the one with the strength to make a difference and make America great again.  But if you don't see him as the general election winner at primary voting time, jump ship or cause the end of this once great nation under Bernie the Socialist or equivalent.

My advice to Cruz supporters, I hear you.  Show your support now for the most conservative candidate running, but at voting time switch to the most conservative candidate who can win.  If that is Cruz, fine.  But as I questioned yesterday, when was the last time a candidate ran on a platform of conservative purity and won, never?

The question is not who is most conservative, the question for conservatives is, who can bring the most people over to our side?

Or else, everybody, just hold your stubborn positions and watch America elect and spiral down European failed socialism or worse!  Conservative and Republican voters aren't known for being either great strategists or communicators against their leftist rivals.  Note who has been winning and which direction we have been heading for most of the last half century.

My two cents.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 21, 2016, 09:42:59 AM
"Why does that not seem to matter to anyone / everyone conservative who wants to win?  I don't know.  Hard to say it is still too early for polls to matter.

Trump trails commie-socialist Sanders by 15 points!"

Good questions.  I can only guess that people feel that when Trump has a chance to go up directly against the (C)rat he will punish her.

The elites in Davos are aghast at Trump but not Sanders only makes me want to vote more for Trump frankly.

I don't believe the polls anyway that Sanders is so ahead of Trump.  Just not true.  No way.

Got to laugh when we here the DESPERATE Clinton mob calling Bern a socialist.  Why just recently they blew those names off.  Slutty Schultz couldn't even tell Chris Matthews, no less, the difference between a Dem and a Socialist.  Even Hillary is on record fo zipping her mouth at the question.  The Clintons are really clowns.  Unfortunately so many fall for their crap.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 21, 2016, 05:08:38 PM
"I don't believe the polls anyway that Sanders is so ahead (15 points) of Trump.  Just not true.  No way."


Agree.  Trump only trailed Sanders by 13% in the next most recent one.  (

I don't fully believe things like that either, but their is some truth to the preponderance of the polls.

The larger point is that while consistently leading the Republicans, DT consistently matches up the worst in the general election.  

Yes that could change.  It could get worse.

My harping point is that there needs to be a big asterisk every time they say he is leading in the polls.  He is leading us into disaster - if you believe the polls, at least up until now.

People on the right hate the entire George W Bush Presidency because he did some things right and some things wrong.  Likewise for Trump; you can see it already.  His supporters are right, he will be great on certain things.  He will also be horrible on other things if you take him at his word, Supreme Court Justices and worldwide trade wars if you take him at his word, and if you are a Republican or an American, he will be doing those things and saying all those things in our name.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 21, 2016, 06:29:21 PM
Again I say it-- Rubio misses a great opportunity by failing to call himself the front runner.

IMO Trump is truly sliming Cruz on the loans, which WERE reported, only not to all the necessary bureaucracies, and on the birther issue. Trump goes pure cronyism on the ethanol while Cruz stands true.  Trump does a driveby with his tax proposal, not defending it after releasing it while Cruz has Art Laffer design his and he explains and defends it well.  Trump supported TARP.  Cruz did not.  Cruz makes all the right enemies by standing up to the Washington Cartel only to have Trump criticize him for "not getting along".  Are you kidding me?!?

I sent Cruz $50 today, my biggest donation to anyone yet.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 22, 2016, 09:11:39 AM
Threshold Requirements Will Force A Two-Way GOP Race By March 1ST
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on January 22, 2016
When will some of the dozen or so Republican candidates withdraw so we can focus on a two-way race and make a clear decision?

Will Rubio, Kasich, Bush, Christie, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum et al ever get the message and pull out?

They won't have to. The party rules will force them out, de facto, on March 1st.

On that date, 14 states will select their delegates to the national convention. A total of 701 delegates will be selected, more than two-thirds of the total needed to win the nomination. But, of these, 388 will be awarded by proportional representation with a minimum threshold to qualify for delegates. To have a shot at 298 of these delegates (including Texas' 152) a candidate will need to win at least 20 percent of the vote. Anyone falling short of that total won't get in on splitting the delegates by proportional representation.

So, if Trump gets, for example, 35 percent in a given state and Cruz gets 30 percent, they will divide the delegates proportionately. But if Rubio, Bush, Paul, Kasich, Christie and the others get less than 20 percent of the vote each, they will get no delegates at all. There is little chance of the field whittling down sufficiently for any of these candidates to break the 20 percent threshold, and certainly it would be impossible for more than one to do so.

Thus, de facto, the GOP nomination process will be a two-way race after March 1. Like a freeway that merges from a dozen lanes to two, there will be a mess of traffic and angry campaign managers, but the process is inexorable.

In Texas, there is a 20 percent threshold for the statewide at large delegates and a separate 20 percent threshold for each congressional district's delegates.

Another 90 delegates will be selected on March 1 by states with either a 15 percent or a 13 percent threshold, making a two-way race in these states somewhat likely.

On March 5 and March 8, 93 more delegates will be selected in 20 percent threshold states and another 81 from 15 percent threshold states.

So, by March 8, 562 delegates will have been chosen by proportional representation from states with 15 percent or 20 percent threshold requirements -- for all practical purposes high enough to keep all but two candidates out.

Over the same period, 370 delegates will be selected in states with low or no thresholds. There would be no bar to Rubio, Bush, Kasich, Christie or Paul getting at least a slice of these delegates, but so will Trump and Cruz. Combined, the Trump and Cruz vote totals from these states and from the high threshold states will likely be so high that the small number of delegates these candidates might win in low or no threshold states will not matter much in the final outcome.

And then come the winner take all primaries beginning with Florida, Missouri, and Ohio on March 15th. These will deal the final deathblow to all other candidates (especially to Bush and Rubio should they lose Florida).

A by-product of forcing a two-way race at the outset is that the nominee will likely be known by March 16th. We will have a pretty clear idea of who will win by then.


Title: Morris
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2016, 01:02:34 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/brunch-alert-hillary-flailing-trump-cruz-exchange-fire-weekly-wrap-up/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: Morris
Post by: DougMacG on January 25, 2016, 07:49:48 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/brunch-alert-hillary-flailing-trump-cruz-exchange-fire-weekly-wrap-up/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports

Hillary is accusing Sanders of being establishment because he has been in the Senate so long.  That's it, I think I'll vote against Bernie because he is too establishment!

She is not the brightest light, is she?
-----------------------------------------------------

On a related matter, I see Obama's numbers creep up.  His disapproval rate is what will determine the outcome of the election more than anything else.  R's should stay focused on running against HIS record, leftist and WHY leftism fails.  Instead we are on birtherism, footwear, shiny objects and 50 shades of amnesty.

Our media and our message is noise.  We are about to got through 8 years of Obama, 10 years since Nov 2006 if you count when they actually took over Washington, and people aren't going to know what went wrong.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 25, 2016, 08:27:55 AM
"On a related matter, I see Obama's numbers creep up."

Unbelievable how some will people will change their minds with the wind isn't it?

Either you agree with Brock or not.  How can one change their minds from week to week?

Sickening.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on January 25, 2016, 08:41:15 AM
"On a related matter, I see Obama's numbers creep up."

Unbelievable how some will people will change their minds with the wind isn't it?

Either you agree with Brock or not.  How can one change their minds from week to week?

Sickening.

I'll never forget the day a Herion junkie told me that they voted for Obama and didn't realize until later that they did.

It all makes perfect sense.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2016, 09:39:58 AM
"50 shades of amnesty"

Great turn of phrase!
Title: Challenge debates
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 25, 2016, 02:09:12 PM
My son tells me Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders are going to have a debate of their own.

This is a REALLY good idea!  Cruz (or Rubio) should challenge Trump to a 1 on 1 or a three way debate.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on January 26, 2016, 04:53:26 AM
Off of Breitbart, this article highlights some good points by Pat Caddell.  I agree with him that Elizabeth Warren missed her moment.  She could have beaten Hillary I think.  My very liberal Republican aunt who HATED republicans (except for hopefully me; but she recently passed :(( )     stated she did not like Clinton.  I looked at her with shock and she immediately burst my bubble to say she liked Warren.

Warren would unlike Sanders not only attract younger Crats but the older ones who are tired of Hillary's stench.

BTW my aunt also thought Rachel Maddow was brilliant and great.  I never had ANY chance of having a bllateral political conversation with her.  But I miss her dearly otherwise.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - General Election Matchups
Post by: DougMacG on January 26, 2016, 09:28:22 AM
Cruz keeps scoring better than expected, IMHO, way better than Trump, slightly behind Rubio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/#

I like what Crafty said, that Rubio should be touting his advantage here.  Problem there is that it is to act Trump-like, bragging about your polls as a reason to elect you President.  Maybe more powerful (and also Trump-like) would be for one of these guys to paint Trump with a big "L" on his forehead for the general election poll "Loser" that he is.  I would expect something like that to come out shortly, after all the polls are released before an important contest.

Anyone want to predict the next 3 momentum shifts in this race.  I'll come back and post the right answer later...   )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 26, 2016, 05:49:02 PM
From Doug's posted URL


New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton    CNN/WMUR    Clinton 48, Trump 39    Clinton +9
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Sanders    CNN/WMUR    Sanders 57, Trump 34    Sanders +23
New Hampshire: Cruz vs. Clinton    CNN/WMUR    Clinton 47, Cruz 41    Clinton +6
New Hampshire: Cruz vs. Sanders    CNN/WMUR    Sanders 56, Cruz 33    Sanders +23
New Hampshire: Rubio vs. Clinton    CNN/WMUR    Rubio 45, Clinton 44    Rubio +1
New Hampshire: Rubio vs. Sanders    CNN/WMUR    Sanders 55, Rubio 37    Sanders +18
New Hampshire: Kasich vs. Clinton    CNN/WMUR    Kasich 43, Clinton 43    Tie
New Hampshire: Kasich vs. Sanders    CNN/WMUR    Sanders 54, Kasich 33    Sanders +21
New Hampshire: Christie vs. Clinton    CNN/WMUR    Clinton 45, Christie 42    Clinton +3
New Hampshire: Christie vs. Sanders    CNN/WMUR    Sanders 57, Christie 34    Sanders +23
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton    Florida Atlantic University    Trump 47, Clinton 44    Trump +3
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders    Florida Atlantic University    Trump 47, Sanders 42    Trump +5
Florida: Cruz vs. Clinton    Florida Atlantic University    Clinton 47, Cruz 42    Clinton +5
Florida: Cruz vs. Sanders    Florida Atlantic University    Cruz 43, Sanders 43    Tie
Florida: Rubio vs. Clinton    Florida Atlantic University    Rubio 46, Clinton 46    Tie
Florida: Rubio vs. Sanders    Florida Atlantic University    Rubio 47, Sanders 42    Rubio +5
Florida: Bush vs. Clinton    Florida Atlantic University    Bush 45, Clinton 42    Bush +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Clinton 43, Trump 45    Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders    PPP (D)    Trump 44, Sanders 43    Trump +1
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Cruz 46, Clinton 43    Cruz +3
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Sanders    PPP (D)    Cruz 43, Sanders 38    Cruz +5
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Rubio 47, Clinton 42    Rubio +5
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Sanders    PPP (D)    Rubio 43, Sanders 39    Rubio +4
North Carolina: Carson vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Carson 47, Clinton 44    Carson +3
North Carolina: Carson vs. Sanders    PPP (D)    Carson 44, Sanders 40    Carson +4
North Carolina: Bush vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Clinton 43, Bush 45    Bush +2
North Carolina: Bush vs. Sanders    PPP (D)    Bush 42, Sanders 41    Bush +1
Title: Cruz challenges Trump to a 1-on-1!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 26, 2016, 06:20:01 PM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/01/26/after-donald-trump-announced-hed-skip-fox-news-debate-ted-cruz-offered-him-this-challenge/
Title: Sanders eating into Hillary's black support; two way race by 3/15
Post by: Crafty_Dog on January 27, 2016, 09:22:06 AM
Hillary's Black Wall Shows Cracks
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on TheHillaryDaily.com on January 26, 2016
The latest Fox News poll (Jan 24th) shows Bernie Sanders gaining nineteen points against Hillary nationally among black voters.  In the Fox News poll of January 4th, Hillary bested Sanders among black voters by 71-20.  But on January 24th, Sanders had closed much of the gap and trailed by only 59-27.

As Hillary fights to fend off the unexpectedly strong challenge from Bernie Sanders, the African-American vote is key.  Blacks cast one-quarter of the vote nationally in Democratic primaries and caucuses and are heavily concentrated in states -- beginning in South Carolina -- that must provide a firewall for Hillary if she is to recover from defeats in New Hampshire and/or Iowa.

Sanders had been stuck at 20% among black voters nationally in previous Fox News polls.  In their surveys of November 16, December 16, and January 4, Sanders drew 20% of the African-American vote.  Now, he has risen to 27% -- a key development.

Sanders' growth among blacks is likely a key reason for Hillary's recent efforts to drape herself in Obama, attacking Sanders for wanting to start over on health care and saying she wants to "build on" Obama's accomplishments.

But the data suggests that Bernie is punching through among African Americans.  As his campaign gathers momentum over Hillary's dependence on Wall Street for campaign money and personal income, he is attracting more African-Americans than he had previously.

If this trend continues among blacks, and accelerates following possible Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie could actually win.
=============================
A Two-Way Race By March
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on January 26, 2016
Nobody has been paying attention to the rules governing the Republican Party's early caucuses and primaries. They make it inevitable the 12-person field will be winnowed down to a two-way race by March 15. Here's how:

It will take 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination in July.

Of the nearly 700 delegates Republicans will parcel out on March 1, 363 of them -- 52 percent -- will be in states that require candidates to reach a threshold of either 20 percent or 15 percent to share in the proportional allocation of delegates. Only two candidates are likely to meet that threshold. The others will win no delegates, even if they win 10 or 12 percent of that state's vote.

Of the next 356 delegates, chosen on March 5, 6, 8 and 12, 215 (or 60 percent) will be selected according to rules setting a 20 percent or 15 percent threshold.

So, before March 15, 578 delegates -- about 47 percent of those needed to for the nomination -- will have already been selected from threshold states. It is very unlikely a third candidate can reach this level. Right now, for example, neither Jeb Bush nor Marco Rubio nor Chris Christie nor John Kasich nor Ben Carson can point to any single state in which they top 20 percent of the vote.

Before March 15, 478 delegates will be selected from states that do not require a threshold to receive delegates. But, having been excluded from winning delegates in threshold states, a third or fourth candidate would have to win an unrealistically high proportion of those 478 delegates to get back into the race.

If we assume, for the sake of argument, that the two candidates who do pass the threshold -- at the moment it would be Donald Trump and Ted Cruz -- evenly divide the available delegates in high-threshold states, that would give them each 289 votes. If we further assume that Bush, Rubio, Christie, Carson and Kasich evenly divide half of the delegates chosen in non-threshold states and that Trump and Cruz evenly divide the other half, Trump and Cruz would have about 400 delegates apiece and Bush, Rubio et al. would limp along with only approximately 48 delegates each. Even were one of the candidates excluded by the threshold to win a disproportionate share of the non-threshold delegates, it is hard to see how he could catch up.

Of course, a candidate might get lucky on March 15 and win some of the big winner-take-all states that vote that day, like Florida (99 delegates) or Ohio (66 delegates) but the lead that the two front-runners will have amassed before then is likely too big to overcome.

So all the talk about when Bush or some other candidate will drop out is quite irrelevant. It doesn't matter when reality dawns on them -- they will be forced out by the math of the process in the month of March.

Unfortunately, the voters in the March 1 proportional threshold states may not understand all this, with many casting wasted ballots for candidates who have no chance of passing the threshold. In early March, this lack of understanding of how the process works will cost the two front-runners delegate votes, but the voters will soon catch on and vote primarily for one of the top two.

This will create a new dynamic in the GOP nominating process. Now, in a dozen-person beauty contest, we vote for who we like the best. But when it comes down to two candidates, many voters who may not have voted for Trump or Cruz as their first choice will have to choose the lesser of these two "evils."

Ironically, with two such iconoclastic and sui generis people as Trump and Cruz, the nomination could go to the one who is most broadly acceptable -- or least widely unacceptable.
View my
 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Debate tonight!
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2016, 09:46:04 AM
From Iowa, Fox News, 9pm ET, 6:00 pacific?

Trump already knew the ratings would be down.  Everybody watch!   )

I don't know anything about Megyn Kelly's politics, but for a mainstream media personality, she is smart, good looking and asks tough questions.  Same goes for Bret Baier and Chris Wallace - minus the good looking part.

Smaller stage, better conversation is possible.  I hope they don't spend all their time on scorched earth politics, taking down their own friends who may end up being the nominee.  Instead they should be calling out Obama's failures, explaining why leftism doesn't work, and laying out their own positive agenda.

Next debate in a week and a half in NH.  One month to go until March 1, after which Dick Morris says the field narrows to two.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Debate is Thursday!
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2016, 01:13:36 PM
Correction to previous post where I said it is tonight.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, 1980 Iowa GOP Presidential Debat
Post by: DougMacG on January 27, 2016, 01:37:06 PM
http://reason.com/blog/2016/01/27/about-that-1980-iowa-debate-ronald-reaga
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on January 29, 2016, 08:44:51 AM
(ccp from Rubio thread)

"Rubio is the most likable , but I still cannot see him as leader of the country but then again may be best to beat the Democrats.
Cruz's positions are best for me but there is something about him that he is not warm and fuzzy.  Not many think he would be great to beat Democrats.
Trump is really losing me.  I am beginning not to like him much at all but he is best on some of the positions by far, but then again has very high negatives.
Kasich is likable, talented and probably could beat any Democrat but his policies are way to leftist.

In conclusion a Presidential race that should be a blowout for us is leading down to the wire."


I would post more from around the internet,  but this is the best analysis I have seen.   )


"BTW as for the debate I watched for about 10 to 15 minutes and got bored.  Not because T wan't there but because it was a lot of the same old questions and answers.  Just getting tiring and redundant to me.  Did you hear anything new perhaps that I missed?"

I listened to the whole thing on the radio as an excuse to keep working into the evening and that question stumped me.  I thought it was a very good and substantive debate but maybe I didn't hear anything new.  All in all, they did a nice job of attacking the Obama agenda and showed some restraint attacking each other.  People were given chances to clarify past positions and make a stronger emphasis on the main points they want to leave with their audience, either in Iowa or NH.  It is probably good that we get to a point where nothing new comes out.

From the bottom, Rand Paul had a good night.  Didn't go after anyone real hard.  I think he clarified that people who agree with him particularly on foreign policy should support him.  He already has that and shouldn't move up.  His defense of his father paled as it followed JEB calling his own father the greatest man alive.  Jeb also had a good night but probably won't move up either.  He was the only one to seriously challenge Trump, which was fine but I thought the other strategy of silence about the missing man was better.  A serious Presidential debate on issues and leadership went on just fine without him.  

Nothing new to say about Christie.  He would make a strong general election candidate and President if not for the others running.  He sometimes is a jerk, but DT already has that lane.  He is a strong personality, executive experience, but other Governors have better records of accomplishment.  He would prosecute Hillary very well in a general election debate if given the chance, but others can do that and I would rather have our candidate lay out our vision and why their policies are wrong than just tear down their messenger.  He tried jumping in again after a re-run of Rubio-Cruz debating what happened in the Senate and didn't really pull it off.  His experience in a Governor's mansion in a Dem state with a Dem legislature where no conservatism gets done is not that much different that their experience in the Senate where nothing good got done either.  Presumably that's why they all are running for higher office.

Kasich was Kasich.  Answered his questions well.  Seems to be in the race in case 6 others stumble, or he believes in the lanes theory, but he doesn't attack or compare with Bush or Christy, so maybe he is running for VP.  Kasich is doing pretty well in NH, still a number of them need to get out after NH.

Ben Carson had an off night and won't move up either.  He had moments that were great, another where he seemed to lose his track.  At the beginning they seemed to ignore him, then a gave him a tough foreign policy question which is where he had shown weakness previously.  Another question was all asked and then the questioner said out of the blue, Dr. Carson, that one was for you.  He sounded surprised like being called up from the audience.  Like I said, I was listening, I wonder how that looked.  Carson made a valid point about ethanol.  Govt subsidies are bad policy, but people have made investments relying on them so the ending must be done with care.

This is shallow and obvious to say about Dr. Carson, but having him black and still among the GOP leaders has temporarily shut down the false criticism by the shallow left of conservatism being for whites.  Carson's support comes largely from whites and it is genuine.  I would love to see him continue on in some role where he is able to reach more demographics with his and our message.

Rubio had his best night.  He raised up his energy and oratory to higher level, clips you will hear in ads...  A few moments not so.  Cruz beat him on one immigration point and his attack on Cruz was overly harsh, Cruz will say anything to get elected.  When they used film to corner Rubio on immigration, he had promised not to offer blanket amnesty and all the deals entered were clearly not blanket amnesty so that attack failed in one sense but conservatives who don't forgive him for Gang of 8 are once again reminded of it.  For those not following old Senate business, Rubio is very strong now on border security and stopping ISIS from coming in.

With Trump gone, Cruz took arrows from various directions.  He did fine, not great.  Beat Rubio on one immigration point.  (paraphrase)  'In our campaigns, Marco and I made the same promise.  I kept mine; he didn't.'  As G M has pointed out, Cruz showed backbone on ethanol.  And as I suggested, he put it in the context of ending the whole practice of government picking winners and losers.  Amen to that.  That could play at least neutral in Iowa and makes a strong setup for a conservative and populist argument general election argument against team crony-Solyndra.
Title: The Rubio Gamble
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 01, 2016, 09:15:37 AM
The Rubio Gamble
There’s a method to his unusual strategy. It all depends on a strong showing in Iowa.
Sen. Marco Rubio in West Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 27. ENLARGE
Sen. Marco Rubio in West Des Moines, Iowa, Jan. 27. Photo: Reuters
By Kimberley A. Strassel
Jan. 28, 2016 6:12 p.m. ET
259 COMMENTS

Marco Rubio is suddenly everywhere in Iowa. He’s campaigning alongside Joni Ernst, the state’s popular senator. He’s in the headlines of the Des Moines Register and Sioux City Journal, both of which endorsed him. He’s playing to standing-room-only crowds, jamming in three or four events a day.

That is a change for the Florida senator—and a carefully planned one. Of all the Republican candidates, none is playing a more complex (or longer) game than Mr. Rubio. Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz are following the conventional route of betting that big early victories will lock in the nomination. Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich are using another classic approach—putting all their chips on one state, hoping to jump-start a move.

Mr. Rubio by contrast is flouting the usual rules, playing everywhere at once and nowhere on top. It’s the Wait Them Out strategy. The plan hinges on edgy calculations and big risks. Yet given the unusual nature of this primary cycle, the approach may prove as plausible as any other.

The first of those Rubio calculations is that he has the ability to finish strong in Iowa. The Rubio team has bided its time in the state, convinced that it is possible to peak too soon. And Iowa voters do tend to be last-minute deciders. Rick Santorum, a few weeks from the 2012 Iowa caucuses, was averaging about 7%; he finished with nearly 25% of the vote. Newt Gingrich, by contrast, saw his numbers tank in the homestretch.

Mr. Rubio’s relatively low-key approach to early campaigning in Iowa all but guaranteed he would never match Trump-Cruz heights. His final, feisty Iowa push is instead designed to produce a surprisingly strong finish that gives him momentum out of the state.

The follow-on Rubio calculation is that the loser of Monday’s Trump-Cruz death match goes into New Hampshire wounded. A Trump loss would certainly inspire a rethink of the real-estate mogul. Mr. Cruz, meanwhile, has based his candidacy on a strong pitch to Iowa’s evangelicals and activists that he is the only true conservative in the race. Yet if Mr. Cruz can’t win in Iowa, of all places, where does he win? He would limp into New Hampshire, where even now he is only polling in the middle of the pack.

Cue the next Rubio calculation—that after Iowa, a lot more votes will be up for grabs. Surveys show that both Mr. Rubio and Mr. Cruz are vying for the same voters. Any Cruz pain is potentially Rubio gain. Meanwhile, a poor showing by Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee will likely knock them out of the race. Iowa also might spell the end for Ben Carson or Rand Paul or Carly Fiorina. Collectively, this latter group commands about 12% of New Hampshire voters—who would be looking for a new candidate.

An Iowa boost for Mr. Rubio would separate him from the Bush/Christie/Kasich scrum, allowing him to present himself as the viable alternative to Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz, assuming one of them is the front-runner. And the calculation would hold from there on out. Mr. Rubio has been building his presence in all the states that follow Iowa, ready to scoop up voters as other candidates drop out, until it’s a two-man race between him and either Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz.

If all this sounds tenuous, it is. And plenty can go wrong. Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump could both finish strong in Iowa, leaving Mr. Rubio an afterthought. The Florida senator is facing an onslaught of negative advertising from his rivals in New Hampshire (Jeb Bush’s super PAC has spent about $20 million attacking him). The barrage will only increase, and weathering it may prove impossible.

Some of Mr. Rubio’s mainstream competitors might stay in the race longer than expected, muddying his two-man hopes. The longer the field stays crowded, the harder it will be for Mr. Rubio to raise the money needed to keep fighting. Even if he gets the two-man race he wants, the specifics matter. Many Republicans think Mr. Trump—given his high negatives—is beatable in a one-on-one match. A Rubio-Cruz face-off, however, could prove a longer, harder battle over who has the better conservative credentials.

What Mr. Rubio may have going for him is time, and timing. This primary cycle is truncated—starting late, moving briskly, ending early. Yet the early section, including the March 1 Super Tuesday voting in more than a dozen states, is stacked with contests that award only “proportional” delegates—the states aren’t winner-take-all. That makes it harder for any one candidate to stand out quickly in the delegate count. The real crunch comes on March 15, when the first winner-take-all states kick in.

And so back to Iowa, where the latest polls show Mr. Rubio inching up, and where his team is fervently hoping that anything in this race is still possible.
Title: Re: The Rubio Gamble
Post by: DougMacG on February 01, 2016, 11:00:01 AM
Makes sense to me.  A perfect start for Rubio is to go third, second, first in the first three.  If he finishes distant third three times in a row or worse, I don't see how he gets it turned around.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, O'Malley out
Post by: DougMacG on February 01, 2016, 07:33:39 PM
Average age of Dem candidates goes to 71.

(CNN)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, 76% of Iowa GOP vote against Trump
Post by: DougMacG on February 01, 2016, 07:46:03 PM
Cruz, Trump Rubio, 28, 24, 23
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/694360776639942656

It turns out the Trump 'ceiling' in Iowa wasn't 40, 50 or 100.
Doug calls on Trump to drop out and stop splitting the Cruz-Rubio vote.

Clinton 50, Sanders 49.

Updates welcome...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 01, 2016, 09:28:15 PM
I am quite happy to see this result.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 02, 2016, 04:21:31 AM
Clinton by 5.  I wonder how many they bribed to come in at the last few hours.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, GOP delegate count is 8-7-7
Post by: DougMacG on February 02, 2016, 06:50:13 AM
I am quite happy to see this result.

Yes, it seems good all the way around.  Cruz gets a win but not any kind of runaway.  Trump is now just a politician.  Rubio made as good of a comeback and third place finish as was possible, essentially tying Trump and soundly defeating 4th through 17th place.  Carson in the highest single digits is in a very respectable place for an exit.  He, Fiorina and others should 'suspend' now with their head held high.

We are probably lucky to have Clinton ease out Sanders as well, keeping the excitement of the Dem race near zero.

My biased readings tell me Rubio gave a great 'victory speech'.  Trump was uncharacteristically gracious, and Cruz went on and on until coverage cut out to Hillary. 

"Every vote counts" they say but oddly, the Iowa Dem party won't release the raw vote tallies. (?) 
"Clinton so far awarded 699.57 state delegate equivalents and Sanders awarded 695.49 state delegate equivalents"   Huh?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/01/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-iowa-caucuses/79664210/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 02, 2016, 06:58:42 AM
¡Jeb! did 3 times the vote I expected.
Title: Clintonistas caught cheating at Iowa caucus?; lucky coin flips too
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 02, 2016, 07:36:32 AM
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4578575/clinton-voter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus

http://www.conservativeoutfitters.com/blogs/news/85864001-clinton-caucus-caught-on-camera-committing-voter-fraud-in-iowa

=====================

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/02/02/hillary-clinton-has-the-most-statistically-improbable-coin-toss-luck-ever/

Title: A Trump supporter counters
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 02, 2016, 08:05:13 AM
Ted Cruz wins Iowa, but he won’t be the GOP nominee for president
By Charles Hurt - - Tuesday, February 2, 2016 - The Washington Times.

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

DES MOINES — Well, that's settled. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will not be the 2016 Republican nominee for president.  At least not if recent history is any guide. It has been 16 years since Republican caucus-goers here have accurately picked the eventual GOP nominee for president. In other words, not once in this entire century has Iowa picked the winner for Republicans.

Ted Cruz joins former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum, who won the caucuses in 2008 and 2012, respectively.
Neither Mr. Huckabee nor Mr. Santorum were able to convert those Iowa victories into any kind of groundswell of support outside the frozen cornfields of Iowa.

Mr. Cruz carefully followed the same playbook deployed in the caucuses won by his predecessors.

First, he built a massive and highly organized grassroots ground game. It was impressive. Also, Mr. Cruz spend significant money and a huge amount of time and energy courting Iowa voters.

Mr. Cruz was handsomely rewarded with the highest number of caucus votes of any Republican in history. Which means he is really popular — in Iowa.
Similarly, Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Santorum bet their entire presidential campaigns on Iowa, and it paid off for them as well. At least, in terms of winning Iowa. In the end, of course, those victories turned out to be meaningless.

Mr. Cruz also followed in the footsteps of previous Iowa winners in that he shamelessly and overtly deployed his religious faith as a guiding — perhaps overriding — reason for electing him. The man was literally quoting scripture during his campaign events. This preaching culminated in the creepy footage of Mr. Cruz directing his supporters to "awaken the body of Christ." Ick.

Obviously, it is a strategy that works in Iowa. But I am also pretty sure that God is not so hot about somebody awakening the body of Christ for personal political purposes. Sounds, well, a little self-centered and diabolical.  And, unfortunately for Mr. Cruz, it doesn't usually work so well going forward. Even in a place like South Carolina where they love their Christian politicians, Mr. Trump is beating Mr. Cruz by 15 points, according to the polls.

The problem for Mr. Cruz is that it is undeniable that Mr. Trump has at least broken through to Christian voters. Many of them trust him and believe that he is serious about fighting for them and protecting religious liberty.

Mr. Cruz's impressive win Monday night, of course, sparked a wildfire of giddy gloating among the Great Punditocracy who find Donald Trump so vulgar and repellent. It is like the only thing that matters to them is winning.

But Donald Trump had the last laugh when he walked out on the stage to deliver his concession speech.

For weeks and months we have been told that Mr. Trump cannot handle losing. His entire campaign is built around winning every time. And if he loses Iowa, we were told again and again and again, Mr. Trump would fall apart. The first chink in his armor would utterly crumple him to the ground.  Only, instead, Mr. Trump came out with his family and delivered a wonderfully gracious and funny and hopeful concession speech and told his supporters how honored he was to come in second place in Iowa.

Alas, the Great Punditocracy keeps alive their perfect streak of being wrong about everything when it comes to Donald J. Trump.

• Charles Hurt can be reached at charleshurt@live.com. Follow him on Twitter at @charleshurt.
 
Title: Every one knew this would happen
Post by: ccp on February 02, 2016, 02:13:38 PM
We all knew that in a close election there was 100% of fraud from the Clinton campaign and likely the DNC.  It never ceases to amaze me how much democrats hate republicans that they will persist till their dying days supporting these corrupt slobs:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/02/sanders-campaign-iowa-democrats-lost-5-of-the-vote/
Title: Quinnipiac Match Ups
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 05, 2016, 08:57:47 AM
Things that make you go hmmmm , , ,

Clinton 44    Sanders 42

Clinton 46    Trump 41
Clinton 45    Cruz 45
Clinton 41    Rubio 48

Sanders 49  Trump 39
Sanders 46  Cruz 42
Sanders 43  Rubio 43

I'd love to see a discussion of the implications of these numbers, especially the Sanders numbers.  Along with this forum, Sanders is a big critic of the corruption between big business and the government.  IMHO this is resonating strongly and our side should be making similar noises.  Cruz shows courage and good instincts with regard to ethanol, but IMHO this is not enough.  Isn't Sanders right when he calls for the reinstatement of Glass Steagal?   

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2016, 09:08:20 AM
Iowa demonstrates that Clinton will win any close ones within "the margin of error".
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 05, 2016, 10:00:57 AM
Things that make you go hmmmm , , ,

Clinton 44    Sanders 42

Clinton 46    Trump 41
Clinton 45    Cruz 45
Clinton 41    Rubio 48

Sanders 49  Trump 39
Sanders 46  Cruz 42
Sanders 43  Rubio 43

I'd love to see a discussion of the implications of these numbers, especially the Sanders numbers.  Along with this forum, Sanders is a big critic of the corruption between big business and the government.  IMHO this is resonating strongly and our side should be making similar noises.  Cruz shows courage and good instincts with regard to ethanol, but IMHO this is not enough.  Isn't Sanders right when he calls for the reinstatement of Glass Steagal?   

I like some of these numbers, Rubio 48, Clinton 41, that Rubio is still matching up best.

Regarding this, Sanders 43  Rubio 43, I would just say that I like that matchup.  If Bernie's socialist ideas and proposals can hold up to scrutiny and defeat the optimism of greater liberty and opportunity presented by our best spokesman, we deserve the result.

My two cents on Glass Steagall, it didn't cause the collapse and reinstating it doesn't solve or address any of our top 100 problems.   But yes, government insured institutions unfortunately need to be highly regulated and Republicans can't just leave this mundane work to the occupy Wall Street left.

Crafty, please expand on your thoughts...

Glass Steagall explained:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass%E2%80%93Steagall_Legislation
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - PPP polling, Feb 2-3, 2016
Post by: DougMacG on February 05, 2016, 10:31:10 AM
Trump down 9 points nationwide, Rubio up 8.  If the field could narrow, Rubio runs away with Republicans, not just leads in general election matchups.

Given the choices of just Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz who would you support for the Republican nomination for President?
Trump 33% Rubio 34% Cruz 25%

Who would you prefer as the Republican candidate if you had to choose between just Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio? Cruz 40% Rubio 46% ....between just Ted Cruz and Donald Trump? Cruz 47% Trump 41%

Between just Marco Rubio and Donald Trump?
Rubio 52% Trump 40%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf
PPP Feb 2-3, 2016
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 05, 2016, 10:41:08 AM
Can i cheat and pick the someone who has the best qualities, and none of the worst qualities of all 3?

One can dream, no?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 05, 2016, 12:57:22 PM
Can i cheat and pick the someone who has the best qualities, and none of the worst qualities of all 3?  ...

We can't do that but they can take and learn from the strengths of their competitors and I hope they do!  For one thing, have Trump build the wall and pay for it.

Both Cruz and Rubio have been acknowledging what Trump tapped into, and both probably see the weaknesses in their own tax plans as they argue out the positives.

Learning and adapting without being branded a flipflopper is difficult but sometimes needs to be done.
Title: Last Night's Democrat Debate...
Post by: objectivist1 on February 05, 2016, 01:05:36 PM
Bernie Sanders Beats Hillary in a Lying Contest

The angry old leftist future of the Democrats.

February 5, 2016


Daniel Greenfield - frontpagemag.com


The future of the Democratic Party was two angry old leftists screaming at each other for two hours to decide who hates capitalism more.


With the MSNBC and the Democratic Party's logos on a red background, the stage was set for a redder than red debate. Red was everywhere, reflected in the thick glasses of Bernie Sanders and in the garish red lipstick around Hillary Clinton's orifice of lies, and in their clamorous rants about Wall Street and the evils of capitalism that could have come from a back alley Communist pamphleteer in the 50s.


Bernie Sanders promised to end “a rigged economy” with Socialism, which is the very definition of a rigged economy. Both candidates showed their Socialist bona fides by rattling off the names of the corporations they hated the most. Bernie Sanders cheered normalizing relations with Cuba, ridiculing the idea that being Communist is objectionable. But he did express some concerns about the nuclear weapons being held by his fellow Socialists in the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea.


NBC’s Chuck Todd, who was born for Archie Bunker to call him “Meathead”, and MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, whose giant fake eyelashes made it impossible for her to wear her trademark glasses, moderated a debate that had no reason for existing because none of the participants had developed a new idea since the 1970s (and in Bernie Sander’ case, possibly even the 1870s) and were just yelling the same things that they had yelled at all the previous debates, only louder, as if we hadn’t heard them the first time. The MSNBC audience applauded every line as if it were the only job they were qualified for.


Except maybe teaching gender justice or reviewing organic cruelty-free smoothie places on Yelp.


Meanwhile Bernie Sanders picked his ear and Hillary Clinton nodded frantically during every question as if she were a bobblehead doll that had come to life and wanted to go right from plastic to president.


Anyone who had the misfortune to sit, stand or sleep through the previous Democratic debates kept hearing the same tired lines both candidates have been repeating for months; rigged economy, Donald Trump's kids, the middle class bailed out Wall Street, a progressive is someone who gets thing done, political revolution, not radical ideas, not only did I vote against the bill and “Moozlimb” countries.


Maybe it’s too much to expect two career leftists with a combined total age of 142 to come up with any new ideas, but would it really have killed Bernie and Hillary to come up with some new lines?


Instead the future of the Democratic Party recited their memorized lines and rants from the previous debates. It got so bad that in response to a question about Afghanistan, Bernie Sanders reeled off the same exact rant about ISIS, Muslim souls and the King of Jordan that he had recited in the last debate until Chuck Todd gave up on the senile Socialist as a hopeless case and switched to Hillary Clinton.


The only thing that Bernie Sanders appeared to know about foreign policy was that Hillary Clinton had voted for the Iraq War twelve years ago and he hadn’t. That is the only thing he will ever know.


Don’t ask Bernie Sanders to find Afghanistan, Iran or Ukraine on a map. But wake him up in the middle of the night and he’ll tell you that he voted against the Iraq War and that we need to raise taxes.


But what Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders lacked in the way of ideas, they more than made up for in volume. Hillary Clinton screamed, "I can get things done" as if she were pitching a product on an infomercial. Bernie Sanders ran his own telethon, stumbling over words as he boasted how much moolah he had taken in, “a million people” and “27 bucks a piece”.


Eat your heart out, Wall Street. Bernie is better at suckering small-time investors than you are.


Hillary Clinton compensated for her complete lack of likability by falling back on playing the victim. She accused Bernie Sanders of ignoring feminism, black people and gay rights. She sputtered that, “Senator Sanders is the only one who would describe me, a woman running to be president, as exemplifying the establishment.” Somehow a fabulously wealthy woman who is backed by the entire Democratic political establishment isn’t the “establishment” because of her gender.

Hillary Clinton had tried to use 9/11 as a shield for her Wall Street donations and now she switched to using Obama's Wall Street donations as her human shield. Accusing her of being bought by special interests was engaging in an “artful smear”, she indignantly insisted. Like Picasso or Jackson Pollock.


It was neither artful, nor a smear though. It was just common sense that no one was giving Hillary Clinton money because of 9/11. And a genuinely honest opponent would have made that case.


But when Hillary Clinton dared Bernie Sanders to accuse her of being bought off by special interests, the courageous political revolutionary turned tail and fled. Instead of confronting her with the facts, he began mewling something about Republicans and the Koch Brothers. Just as with the emails, Bernie Sanders backed off his criticism and showed that he didn’t have the spine to stand up to Hillary Clinton.


Under all the “authenticity”, Bernie Sanders is just as fake as Hillary. He paradoxically insists that he wants a political revolution, but that his ideas are not radical. After all his rants about the SuperPAC devil, he admitted that he had contemplated setting up his own SuperPAC.


Between Hillary Clinton’s painfully tight smiles and Bernie Sanders checking his watch, this debate was just another infomercial for a fake election between two candidates who voted the same way 93 percent of the time. All that was left was the inane rhetoric and memorized applause lines.


“A progressive is someone who makes progress,” Hillary Clinton blathered. No one asked her what progress she had ever made. Besides the progress from defending a 12-year-old girl’s rapist in Arkansas to defending her rapist husband in the White House.


“I want to see major changes in the Democratic Party,” Bernie Sanders demanded. He could just rename it the Communist Party.


“I have a record,” Hillary Clinton boasted. But that’s really up to the FBI. She promised the country half-a-billion solar panels, which it needs about as much as it needs another Clinton in the White House.


There was no truth in the New Hampshire Democratic debate, but it was child’s play to spot the three biggest lies.

“I say what I believe,” Hillary Clinton said. And somehow, no one laughed.


“I have been moved by my heart,” Hillary Clinton said in her closing statement. “I will bring my heart with me.” Medical records have already revealed that Hillary Clinton has no heart.


“I love this country,” Bernie Sanders said. And for once, someone else beat Hillary in a lying contest.

Title: WaPo: Time to warm up Joe Biden
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 06, 2016, 06:25:28 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/clinton-email-scandal-why-it-might-be-time-for-democrats-to-draft-joe-biden/2016/02/05/cd69dfea-cc18-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 06, 2016, 07:24:50 AM
Well that article is as grudgingly as good as it gets from a liberal newspaper.  King admits it is serious, and even she sounds almost as bad as "I did not have sex with that woman"  but then rather disassembles it to be as lenient on Clinton as possible.  Even suggesting someone else purposely or inadvertently sould have set her up.
And in the very end of course takes the view of worrying about the Democrat Party.  Instead of calling for her to go to jail or at least drop out of the race he calls to "warm up" Bien.

If I had the time I would go back and see how lenient the Wash compost was to Nixon.   By now they were almost certainly calling for his resignation or impeachment.

That all said this is a crack in the Democrat machine's armor.

 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 07, 2016, 08:26:22 PM
I notice we have not had much overall commentary on the debate.

I thought Trump's opening statement very good, almost presidential.  Woefully inadequate on Obamacare and its replacement (and the other day he sounded like he was advocating single payer.  Pathetically evasive in his response eminent domain.  Sounded like a real yahoo on waterboarding.

The governors gang attack on Rubio looks to neuter his surge, thus leaving victory to Trump.  Glad to see Rubio double down this morning.  Also, I thought he had several good sallies last night.  Quite eloquent on Life.

I thought Cruz had some excellent moments where he sounded presidential , though the IQ, thoughtfulness, and precision of his responses on North Korea and waterboarding probably went over the head of most with nary a look back.  Stunned at the rare display of emotion about his sister.  It was well outside his usual modes and all the more powerful for it.

Though his closing statement was bland, I thought Carson had some good moments; I wish the moderators had taken up his challenge to be questioned on North Korea.

Bush now calls on his brother and his mommy.  Oy fg vey.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 07, 2016, 08:54:43 PM
Bush really needs to drop out and issue refunds at this point.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on February 07, 2016, 09:14:11 PM
I missed the first 30 minutes of the debate.  Overall, I thought the moderators did a surprisingly fair job, considering we are talking about ABC.  For the most part it was substantive, but very little new information was presented by any of the candidates.  Crafty's observations about Cruz are on the money.  His personal disclosure about his sister's heroin addiction was welcome and moving.  

As for his analysis of the North Korea situation and waterboarding likely going over most viewers' heads, that's possible, but methinks we here on this forum tend to underestimate the intelligence and common sense of much of the voter base - at least those who take an interest in these Republican debates.  

It's very easy to be influenced by the narrative that media spin and selective reporting creates.  For example, though I'm not a big fan of Rubio, and don't trust him after his "gang of eight" betrayal despite his protestations that he's rethought his position on amnesty - I thought the Fox News media piled on a bit much over his exchange with Christie and the fact that he repeated his line about Obama being very deliberate in his destruction of the economy and diminishing the U.S. on the world stage.  The pundits insisted that this made Rubio look weak and as though he were simply reciting memorized talking points. They said Christie landed a decisive blow and diminished Rubio in that exchange.  What crap. To the contrary, I think that point needed to be made and deserved emphasis.  

Finally, yes - Trump's evasive non-answer to the eminent domain challenge issued by Bush was frustrating and cause for concern.  

Can't see this debate making any difference whatsoever in the voting results on Tuesday.  All this media hype and minute-by-minute analysis strikes me as nothing more than B.S. designed to fill air time and convince viewers they're getting deep insights where none exist.  Not unlike stock analysts with horribly wrong predictions' Monday morning quarterbacking explaining why the market moved up or down in retrospect.  How convenient for a gullible audience.  What these pundits say prior to the vote is often diametrically opposed to the explanations they offer after the results have come in, yet they never seem to be held to account for this.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 07, 2016, 10:02:19 PM
I too was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the questions.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 08, 2016, 02:28:42 PM
I find myself wondering why no one is going after Christie for not going after Trump.

Kasich might find strong resonance in NH.
Title: 2016 Presidential, live free, drive fast, New Hampshire is on
Post by: DougMacG on February 08, 2016, 09:09:31 PM
http://theodysseyonline.com/colgate/you-know-youre-from-new-hampshire-when/186872

Since the whole game is to beat expectations let's set up the expectations:
1. Trump  2. Kasich  3. Rubio

Trump is polling at about 30%. If he hits high 30s, NH is a win for him.  30 or less with all this confusion among his competitors and his low ceiling is an insurmountable fact.

In the second position, Kasich, Bush and Christie bet the farm and have one shot to move up and onward.  One of them needs to hit 20%.

As for Rubio, he needs 3rd.  If they all pass him up then real damage was done.

If Cruz breaks into the top 3, its a win for him.  If he doesn't, he's a regional candidate who will have other strong states.

And if Trump, Cruz and Rubio finish 1, 2, 3 - again - the rest are irrelevant, just playing spoilers.

My two cents.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 09, 2016, 07:22:21 AM
I enjoyed hearing Mark Levin rip Chris Christie last night.  Second highest taxed state in the nation and he supported Sonia Sotomayor.  '"I support her appointment to the Supreme Court and urge the Senate to keep politics out of the process and confirm her nomination."http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/jan/15/chris-christie/marco-rubio-says-chris-christie-supported-sonia-so/

He changed positions on a lot of issues.  Levin had no shortage of material to work with . And they put together a montage of his repetitions.  

But senators just give speeches, don't have to make tough choices..
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 09, 2016, 09:05:52 AM
"But senators just give speeches, don't have to make tough choice"

But governors do not have to support SS court nominees either.
Title: Carson people defecting to Cruz in NH
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 09, 2016, 02:16:29 PM
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/01/11/ben-carson-entire-super-pac-staff-quit-and-joined-ted-cruz-campaign/mTaafD40dEsjPsbFiLrRpO/story.html?s_campaign=bcom:gigya:facebook
Title: Cost per vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2016, 10:43:25 AM
Working from memory of a graphic on FOX this AM:

Cost per vote:

Hillary:  $120
Bernie:  $60

Bush:   $1200  :-o :-o :-o
Christie $900    :-o
Rubio   $500
Kasich  ???
Trump   $38   :-o
Cruz      $19   :-o :-o :-o

That's right, Bush spent approximately 50 times as much per vote as Cruz!
Title: WSJ on NH vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2016, 11:18:04 AM
The Left-Right Revolt
Sanders and Trump ride very different populist uprisings in New Hampshire.
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks to supporters after winning the New Hampshire Democratic Primary on Feb. 9. ENLARGE
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders speaks to supporters after winning the New Hampshire Democratic Primary on Feb. 9. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images
Feb. 9, 2016 11:52 p.m. ET
433 COMMENTS

Americans keep telling pollsters they’re unhappy—or worse—with their political leaders, and on Tuesday they proved it in New Hampshire by handing victories to a 74-year-old socialist and a blustery businessman with no political experience. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are still a long way from the White House, but their victories reveal parallel but very different popular revolts on the left and right.
***

The uprising on the left is perhaps most surprising given that Democrats hold the White House, and Hillary Clinton campaigned to build on President Obama’s record. But in New Hampshire the revolt was ideological and personal against Mrs. Clinton and the status quo.

Mr. Obama tilted before the Iowa caucuses toward Mrs. Clinton as his preferred successor, but New Hampshire shows that his Presidency has been a hot-house garden for nurturing progressives. According to the exit polls, nearly seven in 10 Democrats described themselves as liberal, up from 56% in 2008. Roughly a quarter described themselves as “very liberal,” and Mr. Sanders won them two to one.

Mr. Obama calls inequality the defining issue of our times, and Democrats believe him. A third of Democrats said it is the most important issue facing the country, and about 70% of those voted for Mr. Sanders.

Mrs. Clinton won the New Hampshire primary in 2008, but this year Democrats seem to have rejected her on personal and character grounds. Mr. Sanders won nine of 10 voters in the exit polls who said that only Mr. Sanders or neither of the two candidates were “honest and trustworthy.” The Clinton campaign has tried, as it always does, to plow through her email scandals by portraying them merely as Republican attacks. But even many Democrats don’t believe her anymore.

Mrs. Clinton now finds herself in a populist showdown she never anticipated and doesn’t play to her strengths. She’s best as a machine candidate of the unions, feminist volunteers and wealthy environmentalists. Mr. Sanders is motivating the younger liberals who were also drawn to Mr. Obama and who are voting for the Vermonter by three or more to one.

The Clinton campaign will console itself that the campaign now moves to states where the electorate will have more minorities and fewer gentry liberals. And to win the nomination Mr. Sanders will have to show that he can expand his support among minorities, especially the black voters who are so important in southern primaries.

The Vermont Senator’s other great obstacle is that many Democrats still fear that a self-avowed socialist can’t win in November. But that argument becomes less damaging as it becomes clearer that Mrs. Clinton has weaknesses that also could be fatal in the fall. As Republicans get closer to nominating the mercurial Mr. Trump, more Democrats may also conclude that even Mr. Sanders could win so why not take a chance on their true heart?

Which brings us to Mr. Trump and the revolt on the right. This is less about ideology and policies than the businessman’s political style and Republican disgust with Washington. The New Yorker dominated the field with some 34% of the vote as we went to press, while no other candidate broke into the high teens. The victory showed that, contrary to Iowa, Mr. Trump could translate polling leads into actual votes. And it showed that the ceiling in his support is higher than many Republicans have believed.

The businessman did especially well among voters without a college degree, but his support was strong across most demographic and ideological groups. He’s the choice of voters who like that he “tells it like it is” and think he can change Washington. But the exit polls also showed some signs of potential weakness. A little less than a third of his voters said they liked Mr. Trump but had reservations. And his share of voters who said he could best handle an international crisis was below his overall vote share.

As for the others, Mr. Trump will be happy that no clear alternative emerged. John Kasich’s investment in the Granite State—100 town halls—paid off with a second-place finish. The Ohio Governor did well among independents and especially moderates. His challenge going forward will be that there are fewer of both of those voting blocs as the primaries head to South Carolina next week and elsewhere in the South on March 1. He will have to raise money fast to be competitive, as well as show he can win over more conservative voters.

Jeb Bush spent heavily in the state and has to be disappointed to finish in the mix for third or fourth place as we went to press. He has been performing better in debates and has the money to fight on in South Carolina, but he will have to show he can beat Mr. Kasich and Marco Rubio to go much beyond that.

Mr. Rubio may be the most disappointed by Tuesday’s result because the Florida Senator couldn’t build on his Iowa surge and suffered from his debate brain-freeze on Saturday. More late deciders turned to other candidates, and some two-thirds said that debates influenced their votes.

Ted Cruz also failed to capitalize on his Iowa victory, notably in failing to make inroads among voters who aren’t evangelicals or very conservative. The Texas Senator will find more fertile territory in the South, but his showing in New England bodes ill for winning swing states if he is the GOP nominee in November.
***

All of which means that New Hampshire hasn’t performed its traditional role of winnowing the field as much as usual. Chris Christie will find it hard to continue after his sixth-place finish, as will also-rans Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. The rest have a case to fight on. But one big lesson of New Hampshire is that if the non-winners want to become the GOP nominee, they will sooner rather than later have to stop attacking each other and start educating voters about Donald J. Trump
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 10, 2016, 11:36:29 AM

"Which brings as to Trump and the revolt on the right.  This is less about ideology and policies than the businessman’s political style and Republican disgust with Washington. "

Depends what one means about ideology.  I suppose if one means strict "conservatism" or strict "constitutionalism", I would agree.

But if one means the ideology of putting America first, dealing with the world with our interests first, immigration, loss of jobs overseas, trade deals that may not be the best for us, being wimps with other countries, no giving ourselves away for globalization then I would say ideology has a lot to do with Trump.
Title: A superdelegate strapped Hillary schlongs Bernie
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2016, 01:58:10 PM
http://usuncut.com/news/the-dnc-superdelegates-just-screwed-over-bernie-sanders-and-spit-in-the-faces-of-voters/

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268935-clinton-likely-to-leave-nh-with-same-number-of-delegates
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 10, 2016, 02:36:15 PM
I saw this too.

yet we have BSers still saying they don't understand what is meant by "establishment" .  That it is merely a myth   

Just like steroids is not rampant in the NFL , UFC etc.

Just like there is no theft in entertainment industry.

Just like those who insist Hillary is honest.

I could go on.

Title: Rove: Go after Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2016, 09:00:12 PM
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
Donald Trump on Tuesday in Manchester, N.H., after winning the New Hampshire Republican primary. ENLARGE
Donald Trump on Tuesday in Manchester, N.H., after winning the New Hampshire Republican primary. Photo: Jim Bourg/Reuters
By Karl Rove
Feb. 10, 2016 6:48 p.m. ET
53 COMMENTS

Tuesday’s outcome in New Hampshire means two things: First, Donald Trump, while not unstoppable, is more likely than any other Republican to be the GOP nominee. Bet on Donald, but heavier on the field. Second, Bernie Sanders will win plenty of delegates, enough to influence the Democratic platform.

Mr. Trump had a very good night. He outperformed his poll numbers, receiving 35% of the vote, four points higher than his Real Clear Politics average going into Tuesday. The businessman ran equally well among Republicans and independents (who can vote in the state’s open primary).

The Donald’s tone in his victory speech was much improved. He movingly paid tribute to his parents. Gone were incessant references to polls. So, too, were insults about his competitors, replaced by praise of them as “really talented people . . . terrific.”

Mr. Trump even strung together a rudimentary platform, pledging to negotiate better trade deals, take care of veterans, build a border wall, replace ObamaCare, create jobs and “knock the hell out of ISIS.” He now must flesh out and defend these platitudes, as Republicans hit him for supporting single-payer health care and saying that he won’t increase the defense budget.

Second-place finisher John Kasich benefited enormously from having hosted 106 New Hampshire town halls, a feat he cannot replicate in South Carolina before its Feb. 20 primary. The Ohio governor is likely a one-state candidate—or, at best, a regional one, with future strength only in the central Midwest.

The overwhelming nature of Mr. Trump’s victory threatens Tuesday’s third-place finisher, Ted Cruz. He played down his chances in New Hampshire but quietly focused on carrying the state’s evangelicals, who made up 23% of the GOP turnout. Even so, Mr. Trump beat Mr. Cruz among evangelicals, 28% to 24%. If that happens in South Carolina, and in the southern “SEC primaries” on March 1, the Texas Senator is toast. Mr. Cruz must confront the New York hotelier, and not just on social issues as he pledged to do Tuesday night.

Then there are the Floridians, former Gov. Jeb Bush, finishing fourth, and Sen. Marco Rubio, fifth. After his surprise Iowa performance, Mr. Rubio was expected to do well in New Hampshire—until his robotic meltdown in Saturday’s debate. Now Mr. Bush is the one with a semblance of momentum.

The Granite State winnowed the GOP field to those five. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina dropped out Wednesday. Poor showings and an empty war chest will end the candidacy of surgeon Ben Carson. Still, five candidates is too many. If they all hang on until mid-March, the chances of nominating a mainstream Republican may dissipate.

Messrs. Kasich, Cruz, Bush and Rubio must resist the temptation to go after one another—which only wastes vital time—and instead concentrate fire on Mr. Trump. South Carolina is a great venue to pop him on defense spending and health care. They must also bring up the front-runner’s greatest weakness: Americans have never elected a serial bankrupt. Populist South Carolinians may not understand why, when Mr. Trump’s companies went under, such a wealthy man didn’t dip into his fortune to do right by the people who were hurt.

There is also Mr. Trump’s claim to be a great businessman: His casinos never reported a profit. The only person who may have made big money on them was The Donald, when he sold. So far Mr. Trump’s response to the bankruptcy charge has been that he “took advantage of the laws.” Thoroughly airing the issue will provide an opportunity for him to give a better answer—or for Republicans to decide they don’t want a nominee with such baggage.

Democrats are also in a pickle. Mr. Sanders beat Hillary Clinton across the board: among voters of both genders and most racial, age, education, income and ideological groups. Mrs. Clinton won only voters 65 and older and those making over $200,000 a year.

The self-proclaimed socialist celebrated by promising a raft of free things, and stirring up envy and class resentment. He is firmly inside Hillary Clinton’s head, causing her to offer a paler version of his left-wing agenda. Still, she leads in states coming up, where the Democratic electorate is not 93% white, as in New Hampshire. And even Democrats may realize how toxic his socialist vision is.

If you had predicted last summer that Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders would overwhelmingly win New Hampshire, you might have been placed in an institution. Now, you would be seen as prophetic.

Mr. Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is the author of “The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the 1896 Election Still Matters” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).
Title: Henninger: Trump among the canaries
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 10, 2016, 09:03:16 PM
second post

Donald Trump Among the Canaries
Trump owns persona. His opponents have to go after him on policy and substance.
Wonder Land Columnist Dan Henninger on the results of the state’s Republican presidential primary. Photo credit: Getty Images.
By Daniel Henninger
Feb. 10, 2016 6:56 p.m. ET
162 COMMENTS

The one reliably true thing we are witnessing in this 2016 election season is a bipartisan repudiation of Barack Obama’s presidency.

When Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire vote for a socialist senator because 79% of them say they are worried about the direction of the economy, the incumbent president’s seven years in office takes the fall.

When Republican voters make clear that their state of angst and anger is such that they will cast their unhappy lot with Donald Trump, that reflects disgust with Barack Obama’s conduct of the American presidency.

This isn’t raised merely to throw sand on Mr. Obama’s last year. It is more serious than that. New Hampshire’s voters, all present for the Obama experience, are the canaries in the coal mines of American political life.

Just as dying canaries warned coal workers that the shaft was filling with toxic gases, New Hampshire’s voters have told the political status quo, to coin a phrase, you are killing us.

Donald Trump owns the 35% of the Republican electorate that is hacked off about everything. In nearly every exit-poll category—age, ideology, the economy, terror—Mr. Trump has at least 35% secured.

What this means for the other candidates is they cannot possibly compete with Donald Trump on his terms, on display in his victory speech Tuesday, which began contained and ended semi-unhinged.

A story from the political past will illustrate. In 1958, when George Wallace, then considered something of a Southern liberal, lost the Alabama governorship to a segregationist candidate, he remarked, “I will never be out-segged again.” Wallace became the premier angry-man populist of his era, running in four presidential races.

No one is going to out-rant Donald Trump about the state of America. Chris Christie got in as the tough-guy candidate. He’s gone, unable to compete with the Marvel Comics character Donald Trump created.

Ted Cruz especially had better reflect. Mr. Cruz’s path to the nomination runs through the Southern states and leans heavily on evocative rhetoric and buzzwords—primarily immigration and attacking Washington and “them.”

But Donald Trump owns all of that, and will so long as four or five candidates are dispersing the other 65% of the GOP vote. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have the money and mutual animosity to go on. Ben Carson won’t quit. John Kasich is talking about winning Michigan—in a month.

If Mr. Trump’s persona is impermeable, the other candidates will have to go after him on substance.

Mr. Trump has been floating in an inch-deep pool of policy and shows no inclination to expand his pre-existing knowledge of anything. It will require patience and persistence, but his opponents have no choice but to start challenging the implications of what he says and criticizing it in detail.

At the core of the Trump campaign is one policy idea: imposing a 45% tariff on goods imported from China. In his shouted, red-faced victory speech Tuesday, he extended the trade offensive to Japan and Mexico.

Some detail: Combining the value of goods we sell to them and they to us, China, Mexico and Japan are the U.S’s Nos. 1, 3 and 4 trading partners (Canada is No. 2). They are 35% of the U.S.’s trade activity with the world. The total annual value of what U.S. producers—and of course the workers they employ—sell to those three countries is $415 billion.

Wal-Mart has 1.4 million U.S. employees in stores filled with foreign-made consumer goods. With a 45% price increase, many won’t be working for long.

Mr. Trump says the threat alone of a tariff will cause China to cave. Someone should ask: What happens if they don’t cave? Incidentally, unlike Mexico, China has between 200 and 300 nuclear warheads and 2.4 million active-duty forces. Irrelevant?

He said Tuesday about drugs: “We’re going to end it at the southern border. It’s gonna be over.” How?

He said: “I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.” How?

Another campaign venue Donald Trump owns is the national debates. In New Hampshire, 67% said the debates were important to their decision, suggesting the debates are backing out retail politics. If so, the survivor candidates need a new debate strategy.

They will always finish behind Donald Trump if they let the moderators design their performances by making the debate a pinball machine, as ABC did in New Hampshire. The randomness, baiting and irrelevance (immigration, the inevitable debate whipping post is the lowest-rated issue in exit polls) make it hard for voters to shape an impression beyond persona, which Mr. Trump owns.

Iowa and New Hampshire revealed there are three GOP voting issues in the primaries: economic anxiety, Islamic terrorism and voters’ emotional belief in their candidate. A competitive Trump opponent will find a way to drive those subjects—and ignore the rest—across two hours in 30 to 60-second increments.

Donald J. Trump reinvented modern media politics. Somebody has about three months to reinvent his invention
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 11, 2016, 08:07:46 AM
Hillary Lost Because She Lied
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on February 11, 2016
New Hampshire exit polls in the Democratic Primary indicate that Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton among self-described liberals by 60-39. Okay.  But he also beat her among moderates and conservatives by a nearly identical 60-37 margin.

They also show that among the one-third of all voters who said "honesty and trustworthiness" were the most important qualities of a candidate in determining their vote, Sanders beat Clinton by 95-5.
 
These data indicate that Sanders' victory was not the result of an ideological vote for a socialist but was due to a personal repudiation of a liar.  It was Hillary's dearth of personal ethics and her lack of veracity, not her political ideology or her issue positions, that led to her smashing defeat in New Hampshire.

So when Hillary sought to co-opt and plagiarize Bernie's rhetoric in her concession speech, she did nothing to solve the problem that brought her low.  Nor will any shift in her message or beheadings of her staff do much to help her. 

It is not her position on the banks, TARP, Glass-Steagall, or campaign finance reform that is dragging her down.  It is her email scandal, Benghazi, and her personal speeches for fees that are causing her candidacy to crash.

Hillary can change her issue positions as frequently and as totally as she changes her hair style.  She can flip on the Keystone Pipeline and flop on the Trans Pacific Trade Deal.  But she cannot go back and delete her lies, evasions, half-truths, and distortions.  They live on video tape and in our memories, ready to spring to life as soon as she lies again.

This personal reputation is not something a new consultant can fix.  All the king's horses and all the king's men cannot put Hillary back together again.
New Hampshire means Hillary is outed.  It's downhill from here.
Title: Sandernistas go after the black vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 11, 2016, 11:22:10 AM
http://www.thenation.com/article/hillary-clinton-does-not-deserve-black-peoples-votes/
Title: Gingrich sees Cruz as strongest challenger to Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 11, 2016, 11:24:52 AM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/02/10/newt-gingrich-says-this-candidate-is-in-an-excellent-position-to-be-donald-trumps-major-competitor-for-the-gop-nomination/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%202-11-16%20FINAL&utm_term=Firewire
Title: The Coming Dem-adgeddon
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 12, 2016, 09:43:59 AM
The Coming Dem-aggeddon . .

In 2008, we saw the Democrats, after a long, hard-fought and divisive primary, unite and win the general election by a big margin -- helped along by the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Can that party unite again?

It’s overstating it to say that the 2016 Democratic presidential primary is rigged. But it’s pretty reasonable to argue that the party’s establishment -- the Democratic National Committee, the elected lawmakers and movers and shakers -- have put a thumb on the scale for Hillary Clinton that will be difficult to overcome:

This is what makes Clinton so powerful in the Democratic race -- even while she and Sanders battle it out among rank-and-file voters, she has a massive lead among superdelegates. Altogether, she already has 394 delegates and superdelegates to Sanders’s 44 -- a nearly ninefold lead.

Think about that -- we’ve had one tie (Iowa) and one landslide Sanders win (New Hampshire) and she’s ahead by 350 delegates.

Superdelegates can’t give Hillary the nomination if she keeps losing by landslides. But if it’s reasonably close, she could overcome the gap. According to the Associated Press, Democrats have 4,763 delegates in all; to win the nomination, you need 2,382. About 15 percent -- 712 -- of all of the delegates are “superdelegates.”

More background:

Q: Who gets to be a Superdelegate?

A: Every Democratic member of Congress, House and Senate, is a Superdelegate (240 total). Every Democratic governor is a Superdelegate (20 total). Certain “distinguished party leaders,” 20 in all, are given Superdelegate status. And finally, the Democratic National Committee names an additional 432 Superdelegates -- an honor that typically goes to mayors, chairs and vice-chairs of the state party, and other dignitaries.

Q: So they have way more importance than an ordinary voter?

A: Oh yeah. In 2008, each Superdelegate had about as much clout as 10,000 voters. It will be roughly the same in 2016.

In other words, in the most extreme scenario, if Sanders won 2,380 regular delegates and Hillary won 1,670 . . . a 58 percent to 42 percent split . . . and then all 712 superdelegates backed Hillary, she would finish with 2,382 and win the nomination.

That won’t happen, but it’s easier to imagine a scenario where a less overwhelming lead among super-delegates -- an 80/20 split? 75/25? -- helps Hillary overcome a more reasonable deficit among regular delegates.

Shane Ryan, writing at Paste, argues that Democrats would never do that:

Superdelegates have never decided a Democratic nomination. It would be insane, even by the corrupt standards of the Democratic National Committee, if a small group of party elites went against the will of the people to choose the presidential nominee.

This has already been an incredibly tense election, and Sanders voters are already expressing their unwillingness to vote for Clinton in the general election.

When you look at the astounding numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire, where more than 80 percent of young voters have chosen Sanders over Clinton, regardless of gender, it’s clear that Clinton already finds herself in a very tenuous position for the general election. It will be tough to motivate young supporters, but any hint that Bernie was screwed by the establishment will result in total abandonment.

Democrats win when turnout is high, and if the DNC decides to go against the will of the people and force Clinton down the electorate’s throat, they’d be committing political suicide.

Democrat elites would never do something insanely self-destructive and attack their own grassroots voters, right?

 “You’re all going to burn in hell, sinners!”

Hillary Clinton is not going to graciously concede to this little-known senator running to her left, who came out of nowhere and has the media swooning over his big crowds of young people on college campuses . . . again.

She and the Clinton team have a long history of pulling out all the stops to slime their opponents. Yesterday Representative John Lewis (D., Ga.) suggested Sanders is either exaggerating or lying about his youthful work in the civil rights movement:

An icon of the civil rights movement is casting doubt on the senator’s civil rights credentials.

Rep. John Lewis, D-Ga., implied Sanders might be overstating his involvement in the movement of the 1960s, including the Vermont senator’s claim he marched with Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

“I never saw him. I never met him,” Lewis, a close ally of King’s, said of Sanders, in a response to a reporter’s question. Lewis was speaking Thursday at an event announcing the Congressional Black Caucus PAC supports Hillary Clinton over Sanders for the Democratic presidential nomination.
“I was chair of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee for three years, from 1963 to 1966,” Lewis said. “I was involved with the sit-ins, the Freedom Rides, the March on Washington, the march from Selma to Montgomery [Alabama] and directed [the] voter education project for six years. But I met Hillary Clinton. I met President [Bill] Clinton.”

If they have to paint Sanders as mentally unstable, or the destroyer of Medicare, they’ll do it. Remember Sanders’s bizarre 1972 newspaper column about rape fantasies? You really think Hillary Clinton will leave that untouched if she thinks Sanders is about to deny her the nomination?

And let’s face it, Bernie Sanders is doing his best possible job of convincing Democrats that Hillary Clinton represents an acquiescence to Wall Street at best and bribed subservience at worst. Last night at the debate, he came close to calling her a warmonger, saying, “In her book and in this last debate, she talked about getting the approval or the support or the mentoring of Henry Kissinger. I’m proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend. I will not take advice from Henry Kissinger.”

Do you see Democrats just hugging it out after the primaries? Letting bygones be bygones? Either Sanders wins, and the party has nominated a socialist in open revolt against the vast majority of the party’s leadership . . . or Hillary wins, and the Millennial Democrats watch the Clinton machine crush their vision for the party and the country through their trademarked shady, underhanded, ruthless tactics. In that scenario, it’s not unthinkable that a lot of Sanders activists conclude politics really is a rigged game, and walk away from traditional political activism entirely.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 13, 2016, 08:45:42 AM
Debate tonight.  I am still pulling for Rubio.  More important than how he does seems to be what the story line coming out of this is.  His 'gaffe' is  lasting and fatal if he is not able to instantly prove that characterization is wrong.  The question of whether there is time to recove is intertwined with how strong the appeal of his competitors really is, and what kind of message do voters want to send.

Trump won NH big and leads in SC by double digits.  Yet 2/3rds of Republicans in both states aren't supporting him even though he has been leading for going on a year.  He still has the highest negatives, lousy general election appeal, and a ceiling much lower than his supporters can see. 

Cruz is (also) still competing to win a plurality, not a majority.  Everything I hear him say is aimed to prove he is the Senate's most conservative member, which he is, and the race's most conservative candidate, which he is.  Obama was the Senate's most liberal member (but didn't run on ideology).  Does that logic work in reverse for a conservative in a liberal media world?  I don't think so.  Cruz makes precious little effort to reach out and tell others why conservatism is better.   We are to assume he has the ability without seeing evidence of it.  The idea that the furthest right can win against the furthest left leaves out the wildcard possibility that a centrist choice might be added to the mix.  If we win just because the opponent is a crook or a socialist, the win won't translate into any change much less lasting change.

Kasich has a strong background, emphasizes moderation and competence, but has limited appeal.  His candidacy is reminiscent of other centrists who let us down.  He might make a fine President if this was a time for electing experience and competence.  But Trump and Sanders have read these times better; it is a time for a major directional shift, like the shift to the right we should have had after G.W. Bush.  (Instead we went left.)

Jeb is making an all out push in SC, for the 5th or 6th attempt at restarting.  Maybe SC voters can give him a clarifying message back. 

Christy is out.  What a jerk.  Yes he caught Rubio repeating himself, while they all do, intentionally, right while he was also telling us for the 19th time that he was once a federal prosecutor and therefore knows everything there is to know about fighting terrorism, after they are arrested.  Like the mistake of attacking Trump, those who have attacked Rubio have not benefited much from it.

It would have been nice to see Carson, Fiorina, Jindal, Walker, Nikki Haley and others all join forces in one camp if they want the nominee to be someone other than Trump or Cruz. It seems like the deadline for that is quickly approaching, if not past.  Maybe Bush can show that kind of leadership in his SC concession speech. 

Rubio got where he is by challenging the establishment.  In his first two years he was rated the Senate's third most conservative Senator, behind Jim Demint and Mike Lee, before Ted Cruz and Gang of 8.  His conservatism comes across to the middle with a softer edge than Cruz and others.  His message discipline was a strength, now a weakness to overcome.  His consistent lead in general election matchups will come back if his setback can be overcome - in the debates, in the media appearances and in the primary results.  If not, he is toast and I don't see a good outcome for this race.

P.S.  I wish Pat was here; he might know who benefits most from Gilmore leaving the race.  )
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 13, 2016, 09:45:24 AM
Doug all good points and I agree with you on everything.

One reason we think that Rubio (or Cruz) may be good is their Latino heritage.

One would think that is the case but then I see this:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/12/no-joke-trump-can-win-plenty-of-latinos.html    :-o
Title: 2nd post today
Post by: ccp on February 13, 2016, 09:56:04 AM


Obviously Davide Alexrod is not my favorite guy, yet  sometimes he does make some good points that I can relate to and are not simply partisan:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/12/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-pronouns/

OTOH Obama could be the most "I" and "me" president that ever lived so his theory there falls apart.

Trump is an interesting example when looking at it from this perspective.  Surely he is about him but his message "make America great again" is about us.  And quite inclusive.
Kind of a paradox. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 14, 2016, 08:45:28 AM
(What would Pat say?)  :-(   Pat always pointed to Huffington Post for poll conglomeration and Reuters for the most accurate, up to date poll. (?)

Over at HuffPost they show Trump leading Clinton in the NONE of the last 10 polls, now down by double digits on Reuters.  
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

They show Cruz leading Clinton in NONE of the last 7:  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-cruz-vs-clinton

In contrast, Rubio is leading Clinton in 4 of the last 5: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-rubio-vs-clinton


Ted Cruz says how great his Supreme Court appointments will be.  But second place doesn't get to make court appointments.  Everything he said again last night was to prove he is most pure, not to prove most electable.

Donald Trump says he will make America great again, doesn't really say how, by winning again I guess.  But down 10 polls in a row when everyone knows both candidates well is not exactly winning again. Romney didn't make America great again and his agenda for the most part was as good or better than Trump's.  Nor did he make great Supreme Court appointments.  

Might as well endorse Hillary.
                                                 Clinton  Trump
Ipsos/Reuters   2/6 - 2/10   1,337 RV   44   34   10   Clinton +10
Morning Consult   2/3 - 2/7   2,197 RV   45   40   15   Clinton +5
Quinnipiac   2/2 - 2/4   1,125 RV   46   41   10   Clinton +5
PPP (D)   2/2 - 2/3   1,236 RV   47   40   13   Clinton +7
Ipsos/Reuters   1/30 - 2/3   1,434 RV   44   36   10   Clinton +8
Morning Consult   1/21 - 1/24   4,001 RV   45   39   16   Clinton +6
CNN   1/21 - 1/24   907 RV   48   47   4   Clinton +1
ABC/Post   1/20 - 1/24   850 RV   54   42   6   Clinton +12
Zogby (Internet)   1/19 - 1/20   843 LV   45   45   10   -
Morning Consult   1/14 - 1/17   4,060 RV   44   42   14   Clinton +2
NBC/WSJ   1/9 - 1/13   800 RV   51   41   -   Clinton +10

                                                 Clinton   Cruz
psos/Reuters   2/6 - 2/10   1,337 RV   44   34   12   Clinton +10
Morning Consult   2/3 - 2/7   2,197 RV   45   42   13   Clinton +3
Quinnipiac   2/2 - 2/4   1,125 RV   45   45   3   -
PPP (D)   2/2 - 2/3   1,236 RV   46   44   10   Clinton +2
Ipsos/Reuters   1/30 - 2/3   1,434 RV   44   34   11   Clinton +10
Morning Consult   1/21 - 1/24   4,001 RV   45   38   17   Clinton +7

                                               Rubio   Clinton
Morning Consult   2/3 - 2/7   2,197 RV   44   43   14   Rubio +1
Quinnipiac   2/2 - 2/4   1,125 RV   48   41   4   Rubio +7
PPP (D)   2/2 - 2/3   1,236 RV   46   44   10   Rubio +2
Morning Consult   1/21 - 1/24   4,001 RV   39   44   16   Clinton +5
CNN   1/21 - 1/24   907 RV   50   47   3   Rubio +3
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 14, 2016, 10:13:03 AM
And I am not sure that should Clinton be forced out (not holding my breath) that Trump could beat Sanders or Biden.

Can we run all 3?  We get the conservatism of Cruz, the backbone of Cruz and Trump, the oratory skill of Trump, the likability of Rubio.    Maybe they can all marry and we get 3 for 1.
Title: Trump's sister the judge
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 16, 2016, 10:51:20 PM
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/02/15/trump-sure-said-sister-supreme-court-idea-believes/?utm_content=buffer32f34&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Title: Yes!!!!!!!
Post by: ccp on February 17, 2016, 03:13:47 PM
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 17, 2016, 08:52:23 PM
It gets even better-- Cruz invites Trump to follow through on his threat to sue so that he, Cruz, can get to be the one who deposes him!  OMFG!  Please let this come to pass!!!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 18, 2016, 06:32:53 AM
When Does Marco Rubio Start Winning? And Where?

Our Tim Alberta asks a fair question about Marco Rubio: When does he start winning states?

Rubio’s team insists they are focused on winning a long-term delegate fight against Trump and Cruz. Yet both of those candidates have already notched wins. Sooner or later, to sustain the perception of viability, Rubio will need to win somewhere. And it’s not unreasonable to ask, as Miller did: If Rubio can’t win here, with most of the state’s Republican apparatus supporting him, where can he?

The danger for Rubio isn’t that he flops without a first-place showing here. South Carolina, at this early stage and with six candidates still alive, isn’t a must-win for anyone. But with Haley now on board, and the wind clearly at his back, Rubio would be devastated by finishing behind Cruz. That’s the scenario Cruz’s campaign -- which is deceptively strong on the ground here -- is teeing up as the media seizes on the narrative of Rubio’s rise. (Polls showed the two senators battling for second place behind Trump prior to Haley’s endorsement.)

To be clear: Rubio’s expectations are rightfully high here not just because he has these three influential state Republicans in his corner, but because his campaign has deep roots in South Carolina and always viewed it as Rubio’s best chance to score an early-state victory.
 
Every non-front-runner campaign plots a strategy that includes some element of, “and then we beat expectations in this state, and then BOOM! -- it gives us momentum and donations and we jump ahead of our rivals!” But Ted Cruz is doing about as well in South Carolina after winning Iowa as he was before. After John Kasich’s second-place finish in New Hampshire, a couple of polls showed him jumping up from the 9–10 percent range to the mid-teens in South Carolina . . . and he’s still in single digits just about everywhere else. He’s not betting much in the Palmetto State; he won’t be there on Election Night.
What if winning or coming in second in an early state doesn’t give you a sudden, dramatic boost of support in later states? If people in the March 1 SEC primary states don’t care if Iowans or New Hampshire voters liked you . . . what then?

Yesterday NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed both Cruz and Rubio beating Trump among Republicans head-to-head. The problem for both of them is that there’s no sign this is going to be a two-man race anytime soon. I suppose if Rubio did abominably badly in South Carolina, he might drop out.
A two-man race? Heck, we may not get a three-man race after South Carolina. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, and John Kasich don’t sound like they’re ready to quit anytime soon.

Bush was sarcastic when he said yesterday: “It’s all been decided, apparently. The pundits have already figured it out. We don’t have to go vote. I should stop campaigning maybe.”

Yes, yes, those mean, awful pundits who can look at polling and see that Bush has never finished higher than a tie for third, with 15 percent in South Carolina since July. Not only are Bush, Kasich, and Carson not doing particularly well in South Carolina; you have to look far and wide to find a poll of any other state conducted in 2016 where they’re in double digits.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 22, 2016, 07:59:19 AM
More questions than answers at this point.  On the Dem side, I think I just lost my second bet with ccp, Hillary just won the Dem nomination if she manages to stay out of prison long enough to pardon herself.

Trump is winning the Republican race.  He won NH and SC by double digits and leading in many others.  The other side of that coin is that he is confirming the high floor, low ceiling theory.  2/3rds of Republicans don't go to him even though he is clear and away the long-standing front runner.  

Cruz is also a plurality candidate judging from his record and talk.  He is aiming to capture the 20-25% of the GOP that is furthest to the right with no interest in the rest.  He is a smart guy, and conservatism is better than leftism, so we assume he could win  arguments with Hillary or whoever in a general election, but for the time being he has only aimed his campaign only at those who are already the most conservative.

Bush is out.  His meager support goes to Rubio or Kasich.  

Kasich is now 4th place by default.  He has an impressive background, in congress and being the last of the two term governors remaining (only because he refuses to get out).  He is the last of the 'compassionate conservatives'.  I think he lacks charisma, but maybe that is a good thing.  It will be interesting to see if he carries Ohio the way he did in his reelection.  Like Rubio in Florida, these things aren't always as easy as they look.

Ben Carson is staying in after finishing last.  Great guy.  He adds something to the race, but no one sees him as President.  

If Bush, Carson and Kasich were all out, we would have a better opportunity to judge the top three.  A divided race favors Trump, who can win with 32%.  Either Cruz or Rubio might beat Trump in a one on one, but that isn't going to happen.  Neither Cruz or Rubio is going to go down or get out from where they are now.

Then what?  Trump runs the table as it appears now?  Or Cruz wins the most conservative states, Kasich wins Ohio, Rubio wins a couple and this goes to the convention and all but one end up feeling cheated?

As Hillary emerges as the Dem nominee and her coverage starts to look like someone who can win, R's start to focus their vote on who can win the general election, not just who takes the hardest line on their own biggest issue?  

Maybe that is Rubio, but all the concerns about him are valid.  Is he too young, too scripted, too untested, too easily moved to compromise?  He has no executive experience.  Has he pissed off conservatives too much to every unite our side, turn them out and win?   Is it just no good this time around to be everyone's second choice?  The way I see it, his downside risk comes with the upside risk that his message of conservative inspiration could win and win big.

Or can one of the others start to look like a general election winner?

It's still hard to see where this is headed.  Did we really start with 17 great candidates and  are going to end up with one that can't or won't win against a totally flawed Dem in a year that should have Republican written all over it?  Or lose to a 3rd party or win in a negative or divided way that the Senate goes to the Dems?

A lot is going to happen in the next two weeks or so.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 22, 2016, 06:49:06 PM
" I think I just lost my second bet with ccp, Hillary just won the Dem nomination if she manages to stay out of prison long enough to pardon herself."

Did you see the pick a card bet in Nevada in the one county that was tied.  Unlike in NH where the flip a coin (hillary won 6 of 6), in Nevada they pick one card from a deck and the one who ocks the highest card wins.

Of course, she picks an ace.

The whole process will be rigged for her till the finish line.  That includes her email problems.
And what is going on with her chairman Mao outfits?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 23, 2016, 04:23:06 PM
Paul Mirengoff at Powerline sees only one scenario is left for the anyone-but-Trump nomination outcome and that is if Kasich underperforms in the 'Big Ten' primaries and gets out and either Cruz or Rubio underperforms the SEC primaries and gets out and the field is narrowed to two by March 15. 

In a 3-way where Trump is near 40%, either Rubio or Cruz has to consistently beat the other by a 2:1 margin to stay even with Trump.

None of this seems likely.

Kasich's best shot at VP is by helping Trump and Cruz and Rubio don't see each other as teammates except that each wishes the other would drop and support him.

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/02/can-the-gop-be-reduced-in-time-to-two.php

My view: if they can drop to 3 candidates fast and if Trump falls to the low 30s like he got in SC, then the stronger of Cruz or Rubio could prevail.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 23, 2016, 11:24:52 PM
At this point, I think Trump has the nomination. Hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 24, 2016, 10:39:59 AM
At this point, I think Trump has the nomination. Hope I am wrong.

The other-than-Trump candidates have from now, Wednesday, until about Thursday, tomorrow's debate, to pull heads out of asses and figure out how to counter this before it looks like a steamroller running over a domino board, assuming you and I are right that nominating Trump is a bad thing.

Kasich's plan to win is what? 

Carson's plan to win is what?

Cruz and Rubio have roughly an equal claim on 2nd place.  What could Rubio demand from Cruz in order to drop out?  What could Cruz demand from Rubio in order to drop out?

Latest national poll is Rasmussen:  2/21 - 2/22, Likely voters
Trump 36, Rubio 21, Cruz 17, Kasich 12, Carson 8.  Trump +15 (over Rubio)
Other polls less recent give 2nd place to Cruz. 

Kasich support goes more to Rubio; Carson support goes more to Cruz.  Using this poll, Rubio has the better path.  Rubio still has better general election numbers.  Trump and Cruz both plan to fight the general election fight later.  But how?

As it stands Trump will beat Rubio in Florida, Cruz in Texas and Kasich in Ohio.  Texas is the first of those.  Cruz has no path after that if he loses, can only point to Rubio having no path either.  Lose, lose, lose, because they are all caught up in ego instead of country and cause.

Rubio leads Clinton in MN, also leads Trump and Cruz.  Every hour on conservative radio Cruz(PAC) has an attack ad running against Rubio, not Trump.  Good grief.  Cruz' goal is to take second place in the second place party.  No other candidates are advertising here.

If Kasich and Carson drop out sooner rather than later, the race tightens.  If Cruz is going to lose Texas, why not make that dramatic move out sooner, tighten the race.  Again, but how?  Have all the R Senators supporting Rubio agree to support Cruz for majority (or minority) leader of the Senate next January?  From there he controls amnesty, O'care funding, spending, deficits, tax reform, etc.  (Cruz can't offer Rubio the same.  He doesn't have support from Senators and Rubio is out of the Senate in January.)

If Rubio got out in support of Cruz, what can Cruz assure back?  In my view, Cruz is still running to lock in the most conservative 17-25% of the more conservative party, not the general electorate.  Rubio jumping out suddenly doesn't set up a general election win for Cruz according to the preponderance of the polls; it only opens up the center for someone else to jump in.

It would be interesting to see (accurate) general election polling in all the contested states.  It's kind of irrelevant to see which R leads in Massachusetts, California or Texas.

Most likely we all just keep acting stupid.

This week I went to see Rubio, cheered a little for the cameras and helped fill the auditorium on 2 days notice, sent him (a very small amount of) money, and wrote an email to each of the others mentioned about doing the right thing and getting out.

That ought to do it...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on February 24, 2016, 03:29:17 PM
Having a hard time focusing on this, shrouding my badge again for another fallen officer as I get ready for my 4th 12 HR shift this week. I wonder how many White House representatives will be sent to the funeral. I'm sure the president will express his concern.
Title: Newt
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 24, 2016, 05:35:11 PM
The State of the Race After Nevada
Originally published at the Washington Times

Nevada has already sent a strong signal on the Democratic side.

Barring a major scandal (an indictment, for example) the odds are now good that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat nominee.
Bernie Sanders had to win Nevada to sustain his momentum and the simple fact that he couldn't do it is a severe blow to his campaign.
Sanders had spent much more than Hillary on advertising in Nevada and despite his efforts and her weaknesses, she won by a significant margin (albeit one much narrower than anyone would have believed a year ago).

Sanders will have to dramatically sharpen his attacks on Hillary to get back into the race.

If he can't win the nomination, however, he may yet win the war of ideas within his own party. He is in this to the convention because he can raise money from small donors and he is the voice of those who want a socialist "revolution"( to use the word Sanders uses).

There are two big dangers in this for the Democrats.

First, Sanders is pulling Clinton further and further left. For example, to sustain her vast majority among African Americans, Clinton is using more and more radical language. None of that will be sustainable in a general election.

Second, Sanders is highlighting embarrassing weaknesses in the Clinton record. For example, the whole question of releasing her speech transcripts to Wall Street companies would not have come up without a Sanders candidacy.

For Clinton, the path is clear.

Deny every allegation, keep growing the Clinton machine based on past and future favors, shift far enough to the left and to radicalism to blur Sanders's appeal.

The Republican Race

After Nevada can we stipulate that Trump is the frontrunner?

As importantly, can we also acknowledge that the Trump-Cruz-Carson outsider vote is in the 62-70% range?

The old elites have to come to grips with the fact that their "mainstream" champion of last resort was in 2010 a Tea Party insurgent fighting the Washington establishment to win a Senate seat.

Marco Rubio is the most conservative candidate the political and donor classes have ever supported. He is also much more independent. (There is a sound reason so much of the old order donated to Jeb Bush and not to Marco Rubio.)

The anti-Trump advocates keep hoping that as the field narrows, all the votes will go to the anti-Trump candidate. There is no reason to believe that is true. With each candidate who drops out, Trump gains some of their support. If Cruz and Carson dropped out he would gain more of their supporters than Rubio would.

There is an additional challenge coming for Rubio: Can he beat Trump in Florida?

If Rubio loses Florida, he will lose any rationale for his candidacy.

Cruz seems better positioned to win Texas, a victory that would boost his overall delegate count.

Three Big Points

1. In every state we know about, the GOP turnout is up and the Democrat turnout is down. That is a bad sign for the Democrats.

2. The Republican old order still hasn't come to grips with the fact that two out of three of their own voters are repudiating them. This isn't about Trump the personality. It is about Trump, Cruz, Carson and the genuine grassroots revulsion against a political class that has failed to solve America's problems.

3. A Stop-Trump movement will be self-defeating because Trump isn't going away. When Andrew Jackson was blocked by the old-order from becoming president in 1824, he spent four years assailing them and creating the Jacksonian movement which transformed the Democratic Party. The idea that Trump could win almost everywhere (he is currently behind only in Utah and Texas--and even in Texas he’s close) and then be denied the nomination is hopeless. Either Trump will be stopped in the primaries or he will be the nominee.
Your Friend,
Newt
Title: Rubio-Cruz ticket a way to beat Trump?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 24, 2016, 05:53:07 PM
Secpnd post

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/431778/marco-rubio-ted-cruz-stop-donald-trump?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Wednesday%20Trending%20Email%20Reoccurring%202016-02-24&utm_term=NR5PM
Title: Rolling Stone: How America made Trump unstoppable
Post by: Crafty_Dog on February 25, 2016, 09:34:52 AM
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224?page=13
Title: 2016 Presidential, The Economist: Time to Fire Trump
Post by: DougMacG on February 26, 2016, 09:10:37 AM
People need to either support Trump (or Hillary) or figure who is best positioned to beat Trump (and Hillary).  The Economist liked Kasich.  Others liked Cruz.  I liked Jack Kemp.  At some point we unite and move forward or remain divided and lose, lose, lose.
 - - - - - -
"If the field remains split as it is now, it is possible for Mr Trump to win with just a plurality of votes. To prevent that, others must drop out. Although we are yet to be convinced by Mr Rubio (see article), he stands a better chance of beating Mr Trump than anyone else. All the other candidates—including Mr Cruz, who wrongly sees himself as the likeliest challenger—should get out of his way. If they decline to do so, it could soon be too late to prevent the party of Abraham Lincoln from being led into a presidential election by Donald Trump."
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Time to fire him
Donald Trump is unfit to lead a great political party   -  The Economist  Feb 27, 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693579-donald-trump-unfit-lead-great-political-party-time-fire-him

In a week’s time, the race for the Republican nomination could be all but over. Donald Trump has already won three of the first four contests. On March 1st, Super Tuesday, 12 more states will vote. Mr Trump has a polling lead in all but three of them. Were these polls to translate into results, as they have so far, Mr Trump would not quite be unbeatable. It would still be possible for another candidate to win enough delegates to overtake him. But that would require the front-runner to have a late, spectacular electoral collapse of a kind that has not been seen before. Right now the Republican nomination is his to lose.

Worse, it might not stop there. Polls show that 46% of Americans of voting age have a “very unfavourable” opinion of Mr Trump, which suggests his chances of winning a general election are slight. But Mr Trump’s political persona is more flexible than that of any professional politician, which means he can take it in any direction he wants to. And whoever wins the nomination for either party will have a decent chance of becoming America’s next president: the past few elections have been decided by slim margins in a handful of states. When pollsters ask voters to choose in a face-off between Mr Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner wins by less than three percentage points. Mr Trump would have plenty of time to try to close that gap. An economy that falls back into recession or an indictment for Mrs Clinton might do it for him.

In this section
Time to fire him

Donald Trump

That is an appalling prospect. The things Mr Trump has said in this campaign make him unworthy of leading one of the world’s great political parties, let alone America. One way to judge politicians is by whether they appeal to our better natures: Mr Trump has prospered by inciting hatred and violence. He is so unpredictable that the thought of him anywhere near high office is terrifying. He must be stopped.

The world according to Trump

Because each additional Trumpism seems a bit less shocking than the one before, there is a danger of becoming desensitised to his outbursts. To recap, he has referred to Mexicans crossing the border as rapists; called enthusiastically for the use of torture; hinted that Antonin Scalia, a Supreme Court justice, was murdered; proposed banning all Muslims from visiting America; advocated killing the families of terrorists; and repeated, approvingly, a damaging fiction that a century ago American soldiers in the Philippines dipped their ammunition in pigs’ blood before executing Muslim rebels. At a recent rally he said he would like to punch a protester in the face. This is by no means an exhaustive list.

Almost the only policy Mr Trump clearly subscribes to is a fantasy: the construction of a wall along the southern border, paid for by Mexico. What would he do if faced with a crisis in the South China Sea, a terrorist attack in America or another financial meltdown? Nobody has any idea. Mr Trump may be well suited to campaigning in primaries, where voters bear little resemblance to the country as a whole, but it is difficult to imagine any candidate less suited to the consequence of winning a general election, namely governing.

With each victory, the voices trying to make peace with Mr Trump’s hostile takeover of the Republican Party grow louder. He has already been endorsed by some Republican congressmen. Some on the left point out that he is less conservative on social and economic questions than some of his rivals (while privately hoping the Republicans nominate him so that Mrs Clinton can give him a shellacking). Some on the right argue that Mr Trump is merely playing a role, blowing chilli powder up the nostrils of the politically correct, and that in essence he is a pragmatic New York property developer who likes to cut deals. Were he to win the nomination, their argument runs, he would be privately intimidated and would appoint sensible advisers to whom he would defer.

This is wishful thinking by those who want their side to win at any cost. There is nothing in Mr Trump’s career—during which he has maintained close control of the family business he runs, and often acted on instinct—to suggest that he would suddenly metamorphose into a wise chairman, eager to take counsel from seasoned experts. For those who have yet to notice, Mr Trump is not burdened by a lack of confidence in his own opinions.

Republican in name only

For too long, the first instinct of Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, the leading alternatives to Mr Trump, has been to avoid criticising the front-runner in the hope of winning over his voters later. The primaries may at times resemble a circus, but they also provide a place to test candidates for leadership and courage. So far both men have flunked that test. Republicans need to take Mr Trump on, not stand transfixed by what is happening to their party. More than 60m people voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. A big majority are decent, compassionate, tolerant people who abhor political violence, bigotry and lying. Thoughtful conservatives will be heart-broken if asked to choose in November between a snarling nativist and a Democrat.

If The Economist had cast a vote in the Republican primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada we would have supported John Kasich. The governor of Ohio has a good mixture of experience, in Congress and in his home state as well as in the private sector. He has also shown bravery, expanding Medicaid in Ohio though he knew it would count against him later with primary voters, as indeed it has. But this is not Mr Kasich’s party any more. Despite his success in New Hampshire, where he came second, Mr Kasich is the preferred choice of less than 10% of Republican voters.

If the field remains split as it is now, it is possible for Mr Trump to win with just a plurality of votes. To prevent that, others must drop out. Although we are yet to be convinced by Mr Rubio (see article), he stands a better chance of beating Mr Trump than anyone else. All the other candidates—including Mr Cruz, who wrongly sees himself as the likeliest challenger—should get out of his way. If they decline to do so, it could soon be too late to prevent the party of Abraham Lincoln from being led into a presidential election by Donald Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on February 26, 2016, 09:22:57 AM
I mostly agree with the Economist.  That said I used to subscribe to it and I can tell you nearly always they lean left.  They are liberal in most ways.

I would feel better if they come out and also say Hillary is totally unfit to lead the free world because she is corrupt. a Federal law breaker, probably a bribe taker and a habitual untrustworthy liar.

When they do this I will give more credit to them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on February 26, 2016, 09:40:06 AM
ccp,  I agree.  I only like them when they agree with me. )  I also used to subscribe.  They had nice coverage and insights from events around the globe before we had internet and Stratfor and so many other sources.  Their opinions are intended as centrist but too liberal for me.  I canceled my subscription one day when they were debating the details of what should go into Hillarycare without considering the possibility of rejecting it outright.  I will read the enemy view but not support it financially.
Title: Could Trump put NY and other states in play?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 01, 2016, 12:04:21 AM
http://nypost.com/2016/02/28/hillary-could-lose-to-trump-in-democratic-new-york/

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_20000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party

Title: Dick Morris on why Rubio cannot win
Post by: ccp on March 01, 2016, 05:18:33 AM
but does he think Trump could win the general?

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-rubio-cant-win/
Title: Re: Dick Morris on why Rubio cannot win
Post by: DougMacG on March 01, 2016, 09:50:41 AM
but does he think Trump could win the general?

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-rubio-cant-win/

Dick Morris is partly right and partly wrong.  One thing he misses is the value of the endorsement.  If Carson supporters still have loyalty to Carson after he withdraws and he endorses Rubio and actively campaigns with him, that makes at least a small difference.  Even more so for Cruz. If he got out, he would become Rubio's biggest supporter very quickly and maybe even take down the anti-Rubio ads!  Kasich's support goes more to Rubio in the first place.  The bigger problem is that none of them show any indication that are getting out.

I will be at my caucus tonight.  Who else here gets to vote today?

Three candidates need to get out tonight when the polls close and caucuses adjourn.  I'm hoping one of them will be Trump!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 01, 2016, 10:28:26 AM
Trump - he seems dead set to not even try to reverse his negatives.

He could be the most reviled man to run for President. 

I would vote for him over any Democrat candidate but otherwise I will be holding my nose.  He has lost me.

Title: Morris: Path to Victory?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 01, 2016, 01:49:56 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/a-path-to-victory-for-cruz-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: POTH: Hillary's strategy
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 01, 2016, 08:56:16 PM
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In the days after Donald J. Trump vanquished his Republican rivals in South Carolina and Nevada, prominent Democrats supporting Hillary Clinton arranged a series of meetings and conference calls to tackle a question many never thought they would ask: How do we defeat Mr. Trump in a general election?

Several Democrats argued that Mrs. Clinton, should she be her party’s nominee, would easily beat Mr. Trump. They were confident that his incendiary remarks about immigrants, women and Muslims would make him unacceptable to many Americans. They had faith that the growing electoral power of black, Hispanic and female voters would deliver a Clinton landslide if he were the Republican nominee.
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But others, including former President Bill Clinton, dismissed those conclusions as denial. They said that Mr. Trump clearly had a keen sense of the electorate’s mood and that only a concerted campaign portraying him as dangerous and bigoted would win what both Clintons believe will be a close November election.

That strategy is beginning to take shape, with groups that support Mrs. Clinton preparing to script and test ads that would portray Mr. Trump as a misogynist and an enemy to the working class whose brash temper would put the nation and the world in grave danger. The plan is for those themes to be amplified later by two prominent surrogates: To fight Mr. Trump’s ability to sway the news cycle, Mr. Clinton would not hold back on the stump, and President Obama has told allies he would gleefully portray Mr. Trump as incapable of handling the duties of the Oval Office.

Democrats say they risk losing the presidency if they fail to take Mr. Trump seriously, much as Republicans have done in the primary campaign.

“He’s formidable, he understands voters’ anxieties, and he will be ruthless against Hillary Clinton,” said Gov. Dannel P. Malloy of Connecticut. “I’ve gone from denial — ‘I can’t believe anyone would listen to this guy’ — to admiration, in the sense that he’s figured out how to capture everyone’s angst, to real worry.”

During the first Republican debate last summer, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, shushed a room full of people at the campaign’s Brooklyn headquarters when Mr. Trump started to speak, almost giddily captivated by the wildness of his remarks. “Shh, I’ve got to get me some Trump,” he said.

Now, Mr. Mook and his colleagues regard Mr. Trump as a wily, determined and indefatigable opponent who seems to be speaking to broad economic anxieties among Americans and to the widely held belief that traditional politicians are incapable of addressing those problems. Publicly, the Clinton operation is letting the Republicans slug it out. But privately, it and other Democrats are poring over polling data to understand the roots of Mr. Trump’s populist appeal and building up troves of opposition research on his business career.

“The case against Trump will be prosecuted on two levels,” said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster and Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist in 2008. “The first is temperament,” and whether he is suited to be commander in chief, Mr. Garin said, echoing conversations that have dominated Democratic circles recently. The second “will be based on whether he can really be relied on as a champion for anyone but himself.”

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But the tactics the Clintons have used for years to take down opponents may fall short in a contest between the blunt and unpredictable Mr. Trump and the cautious and scripted Mrs. Clinton: a matchup that operatives on both sides predicted would be an epic, ugly clash between two vastly disparate politicians.

“Hillary has built a large tanker ship, and she’s about to confront Somali pirates,” said Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for former President George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign, who is now an independent.

This article is based on interviews with more than two dozen advisers, strategists and close allies of the Clintons, including several who have spoken directly with Mr. Clinton. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss strategy publicly.
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‘Against Bigotry’

The greatest weapon against Mr. Trump, the Clintons believe, is his tendency to make outrageous, even hateful comments that can come across as unpresidential. During the most recent Republican debate on Thursday, Mr. Trump traded schoolyard taunts with his rivals and threatened to build an even bigger wall on the Mexican border because he did not like a rebuke of his original wall proposal by a former president of Mexico.

In South Carolina and Tennessee, Mrs. Clinton began to lay the groundwork for what advisers call “a campaign against bigotry,” in which she will present herself as the fair-minded foil to Mr. Trump. She declared that Americans needed more “love and kindness.”

“Instead of building walls,” she has started to say, “we need to be tearing down barriers.”

During the Republican debate on Thursday, the Clinton campaign posted an image on Instagram that said, “These are not American values: Racism, sexism, bigotry, discrimination, inequality.”

Mr. Trump emphatically denies being bigoted, saying he is simply not “politically correct.” But he has already signaled that he would be vicious against Mrs. Clinton. He said that she should be indicted for her use of a private email server as secretary of state and that Mr. Clinton’s extramarital affairs were “fair game” in the election because they were an “abuse of women.”
An All-Out Assault

While Mrs. Clinton radiates positive energy on the trail, Democratic groups are beginning to coalesce around a strategy to deliver sustained and brutal attacks on Mr. Trump.

The plan has three major thrusts: Portray Mr. Trump as a heartless businessman who has worked against the interests of the working-class voters he now appeals to; broadcast the degrading comments he has made against women in order to sway suburban women, who have been reluctant to support Mrs. Clinton; and highlight his brash, explosive temper to show he is unsuited to be commander in chief.

American Bridge, a pro-Clinton “super PAC,” has formed a “due diligence unit” of tax and business experts who are poring over Securities and Exchange Commission documents and court records related to Mr. Trump’s business career.

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A staff member for an affiliated group, Correct the Record, which coordinates with Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, has collected footage of comments that have not hurt Mr. Trump’s standing among Republican primary voters, but that could be stitched together in what the group’s founder, David Brock, described as a montage of hateful speech that would appall a general electorate.

“There is something to this idea that nothing has stuck,” Mr. Brock said, but that, he argued, is because the Republicans have been too restrained to avoid offending Mr. Trump’s supporters.

In the coming weeks, Priorities USA Action, a super PAC supporting Mrs. Clinton that effectively portrayed Mitt Romney as a cold corporate titan in the 2012 campaign, will begin scripting and testing ads that use a similar approach against Mr. Trump.

As Mrs. Clinton tries to remain above the fray, Mr. Clinton would be unleashed to respond when Mr. Trump lashed out. Mr. Obama has already argued that Mr. Trump should not be trusted with the job and has told allies he will continue that charge. In February, asked about Mr. Trump, he said the president has “the nuclear codes with them and can order 21-year-olds into a firefight.”

Jennifer Palmieri, a Clinton spokeswoman, said that she was focused on the primary, but that “she was the first person to call Trump out on either side, and we reserve the right to do that depending on the circumstances.”

Even as Democrats prepare to take on Mr. Trump, there remains deep anxiety that the messages may not break through.

In January, Clinton advisers were startled after Senator Ted Cruz of Texas released an ad that alleged that Mr. Trump had used eminent domain to try to bulldoze an elderly widow’s home in Atlantic City, making way for a parking lot to accompany one of his namesake casinos.

The woman won the legal battle and remained in her home, but the ad, which Mr. Trump disputed, did not dent his support.
Photo
Donald J. Trump sighed backstage after a difficult rally at Radford University in Virginia, at which he was interrupted repeatedly by protesters. Credit Damon Winter/The New York Times
A Shifting Map

Unless these attacks are effective, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers worry that Mr. Trump could pose a threat in some states Mr. Obama won in 2008 and 2012, including some the party once considered safe.

Mrs. Clinton’s uneven performance with male voters so far, especially white men, could create an opening for Mr. Trump to attract Democrats and independents who are socially and culturally moderate and open to his call for a strong military, fearless foreign policy and businessman’s approach to the economy. Those voters could give him an edge in places like North Carolina, which Mr. Obama won in 2008. But Clinton advisers also worry about Ohio, Florida and Democratic-leaning states in presidential elections that Mr. Trump has vowed to contest, like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Edward G. Rendell, a former governor of Pennsylvania who is supporting Mrs. Clinton, said that he thought she would ultimately win Pennsylvania, but conceded that he could be wrong. “He has crossover appeal with some blue-collar working-class Democrats,” Mr. Rendell said. The key to defeating Mr. Trump, he said, was to keep coaxing him into making offensive or extreme comments that would alienate independents and others who might normally vote for a Republican nominee.

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“For every one of those blue-collar Democrats he picks up, he will lose to Hillary two socially moderate Republicans and independents in suburban Cleveland, suburban Columbus, suburban Cincinnati, suburban Philadelphia, suburban Pittsburgh, places like that,” he said.

Former Gov. Jim Hodges of South Carolina, who campaigned there on Thursday with Mr. Clinton, said the former president was girding for a hard-fought election if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee. “The president sees Trump as formidable, no question,” Mr. Hodges said. “He takes him seriously. The campaign takes him seriously.”
Fueling the Outrage Machine

“They’ll flip their top, and they’ll flip their panties...” read the subject line of a recent news release from Emily’s List, a group that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights. The quote came from comments Mr. Trump made about women on “The Howard Stern Show” in the 1990s, unearthed by BuzzFeed last month.

Those types of comments, spoken by Mr. Trump over the years as he served as a tabloid regular and reality TV star, could help Mrs. Clinton excite suburban women and young women who have been ambivalent or antagonistic toward her candidacy.

Stephanie Schriock, the president of Emily’s List, said that an expanded research shop at the organization had compiled “an endless amount of misogynistic and outrageous comments towards women.”

The strategy highlights a concern among Mrs. Clinton’s allies that her chance to become the first female president has not led to widespread excitement among young women. Mr. Trump is the perfect solution to the enthusiasm gap, many Democrats say.

They also say that, while Mr. Trump has proved adept at emasculating his male opponents, as with his “low energy” slight at Jeb Bush, his insults directed at Carly Fiorina and the Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly have fallen flat or backfired. Ms. Fiorina had the best week of her short-lived campaign after Mr. Trump insulted her face and she rallied women around her candidacy.

And Mrs. Clinton has benefited in her career when male opponents have overstepped or appeared to bully her.
A Clash of Styles

But as Democrats hold their breath for the next sexist comment, they also acknowledge a problem that opposition research cannot fix: Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are polar opposite politicians, and Mr. Trump’s direct and visceral style could prove difficult for Mrs. Clinton, whose inclination is detailed policy talk and 12-point plans.

“Can you imagine what he’ll do?” Mr. Dowd, the former Bush strategist, said. She will bring up equal pay for women and abortion rights, Mr. Dowd said, “and he’ll turn to her and say, ‘You can’t even handle your stuff at home.’ ”

Mr. Clinton calls Mr. Trump ideal in the era of the “Instagram election,” when voters want bite-size solutions (“Build a wall!” “Ban the Muslims!”) to complex problems. Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, can appear scripted and static when she tries to hurl planned one-liners in debates.

It will be hard for Mrs. Clinton to focus on policy and stay above the fray as her opponent and her own operation dig in for a brutish campaign. “Hope and change, not so much,” said David Plouffe, who managed Mr. Obama’s 2008 campaign, referring to the slogan that defined that race. “More like hate and castrate.”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 01, 2016, 09:37:19 PM
Super Tuesday is behind us.  Largest (Republican) caucus turnout ever in our small town.  Democrat turnout continues to be down.  Trump rolls in several states.  Cruz beat him in TX and OK.  Rubio ran a strong second in swing state VA. 

Metaphor alert, Hugh Hewitt says Hurricane Trump has been downgraded from a Category 5 to a Category 3 as it hit land.

Rubio wins Minnesota.

This changes everything.
Title: Geraghty
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 02, 2016, 07:49:06 AM
Trump continues to score about 35% net of the votes.  Very good victory press conference last night.  Debate tomorrow night should be HUGE!

====================================

Stupor Tuesday

Super Tuesday was a bad night for the anti-Trump forces and a bad night for Rubio. It’s not the end, but it’s a disappointing setback.

The worst news for Trump foes: Trump has won ten states. Cruz has won four; Rubio, one.

The best news for Trump foes: For all of his state wins, Donald Trump has 34.2 percent of the overall votes cast in the primary so far. Cruz and Rubio combined have 49.7 percent.

In the past week, Trump’s rivals and a critical press have spotlighted the collapse and victims of Trump University, his past use of illegal immigrants on Trump Tower, his massive use of legal-immigrant temporary workers in his Florida resorts, the collapse of Trump Mortgage, his strange reluctance to passionately denounce David Duke and the KKK, and the fact that only $650,000 of the $6 million Trump raised for veterans can be accounted for. To top it off, they made fun of his orange spray tan and short fingers.

And Trump won seven out of eleven states Tuesday. He underperformed his polls in some states, but in far too many places, GOP primary voters either didn’t hear the criticism or didn’t care. “Give us the con artist! He makes the offer sound really good! We’ll sign on the dotted line, no need to read the fine print!”

Now the thinking is that the best way to beat Trump might not be for the field to narrow to a two-man race. Maybe if Cruz or Rubio and John Kasich quit, not enough of their supporters will unite behind the remaining non-Trump option. Some might prefer Trump. Some might stay home. Maybe the most likely way to keep Donald Trump from winning the 1,237 delegates needed for the convention is to keep everybody in, and fight it out at the convention, probably resulting in a Cruz-Rubio or Rubio-Cruz unity ticket.

I don’t know who on the Rubio team made this comment to Bloomberg . . .

But in the final hours before polls close on Super Tuesday -- the single biggest day of voting in the Republican primary -- Rubio’s team is telling potential supporters that they have significant momentum in at least four states and could even win outright in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Virginia and Minnesota.
. . . but it was disastrous expectations-setting. In Arkansas, Rubio finished third with 25 percent. In Oklahoma, Rubio finished third with 26 percent. In Virginia, he was second with just under 32 percent (2.8 percentage points behind Trump). In Minnesota, he won with 36.8 percent.

At least with the Minnesota win, the “when is Rubio going to win a state” line will retire. And Kasich’s campaign spin is insufferable:

Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product. That’s the Rubio campaign’s problem. Behind the nice packaging, voters are discovering there is little substance. A candidate isn’t going to out-talk Donald Trump to the nomination. It’s going to take a candidate who has produced results. Only John Kasich can consolidate the Republican Party and win in November.

Governor Kasich, let’s put aside the fact that you haven’t won a state. You’ve won 6.6 percent of the vote in the primary. You finished in fourth place in a five-man race in Texas and Virginia. You finished in fifth place in a five-man race in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Tennessee.
Ben Carson Will Campaign and Ask for Money Forever

Don’t worry, America. No matter how badly Ben Carson does, he will continue to ask people for money. Shortly after the polls closed on Super Tuesday, Carson addressed a crowd of several hundred supporters gathered at The Grand in his hometown of Baltimore, Maryland.

“I am not moved or discouraged when the political class count me out,” said Dr. Carson. “When I began my campaign more than a year ago, there were 17 viable candidates seeking the GOP nomination. Today, because “We the People” continue to show unprecedented support, I remain one of five. Millions of Americans plead with me to continue. They want to have a choice and a representative voice to ensure people of faith are not marginalized and that integrity is restored to leadership, with a focus on common sense solutions to the myriad problems we face as a nation. They know I am a citizen candidate, not a politician, who won’t do what is expedient, but what is right.  As long we continue to receive their support, and the Lord keeps opening doors, I will remain in this presidential race. The stakes are too high to willingly hand our country over once again to the pundits and the political class.”

At this point, it’s not “the pundits and the political class” that are rejecting Carson. It’s Republican primary voters. He’s gotten 6 percent of the overall vote so far. He hit 10 percent in just two of the 15 contests. He’s spent $53 million.  Last night, there were 632 delegates at stake. Ben Carson won 3 of them.
At least his old friend Armstrong Williams is standing . . . oh: “It’s not about a pathway to him. There is no pathway.”

It’s not just that Carson is losing; it’s that his behavior and arguments are starting to get more odd. This was his big announcement on Super Tuesday:
Concerned with the lack of civility currently being displayed in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Dr. Ben Carson is personally calling for a private meeting of all of the candidates in Detroit, Michigan before the FOX News GOP debate scheduled this Thursday, March 3, 2016.  And just think, yesterday’s Jolt featured John Kerry imploring Assad’s regime in Syria to “show some decency.”  In November, Donald Trump argued Carson had a “pathology” and compared him to a child molester. But now Carson is concerned about a lack of civility?

Governor Shine-box

You could see it in Chris Christie’s sad eyes last night as he awkwardly, silently stood behind Donald Trump during the entire press conference: The belated recognition that he was, in the best case scenario, setting himself up to hold Donald’s coat for four to eight years.

Alexandra Petri:

Chris Christie spent the entire speech screaming wordlessly. I have never seen someone scream so loudly without using his mouth before. It would have been remarkable if it had not been so terrifying.

Sometimes, at night, do you still hear them, Clarice? The screaming of the Christies?

His were the eyes of a man who has gazed into the abyss, and the abyss gazed back, and then he endorsed the abyss.
 
Ron Fournier: “He looked resigned last night, resigned to a life of carrying Trump’s spray tan and hair spray.”

Some New Jersey voices want a different kind of resignation:

The six newspapers including the Asbury Park Press, the Cherry Hill Courier-Post and the Morristown Daily Record -- all Gannett-owned papers that are part of the USA TODAY NETWORK -- were apparently spurred to editorial outrage by a Monday press conference in which Christie refused to answer questions about anything other than his nomination of a state Supreme Court judge. Asked why, Christie replied, “Because I don’t want to.”

“We’re fed up with Gov. Chris Christie’s arrogance,” the papers wrote. “We’re fed up with his opportunism. We’re fed up with his hypocrisy.”

The joint editorial notes that Christie spent part of 261 days out of state last year and traveled out of state to endorse Trump and campaign with him after he quit the race Feb. 10.

“For the good of the state, it’s time for Christie to do his long-neglected constituents a favor and resign as governor. If he refuses, citizens should initiate a recall effort,” the editorial said.

If Christie doesn’t want to be governor anymore, he should step aside. Few moments of this cycle have been as nauseating as last Friday, when Chris Christie, technically the sitting governor of New Jersey, who spent about 100 days in his home state in 2015, went to Texas for the Trump rally and attacked Marco Rubio as a “no-show senator.” Apparently Christie is so blinded by ambition, so spectacularly un-self-aware, that he saw no irony or hypocrisy there.

The “shine-box” reference is from the movie Goodfellas, when one mobster keeps mocking another by reminding him he used to shine shoes. (Scene here, language warning.) The insinuation is that no matter how big a guy tries to act, he’s still the same inferior subservient figure to greater men -- and the dismissive “Go home and get your shinebox” does sound a little like Trump’s “get on the plane and go home. It’s over there. You go home,” order to Christie.

If that reference is a little off-color for your tastes, this one came to mind last night .
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 02, 2016, 07:56:41 AM
Yes it is no less then astonishing to see Christie standing behind Trump last night.

This soap opera never seems to disappoint with all the twists and turns.

"As the Primaries Turn" could be a good tile.  Better than any movie.  God I only hope the ending is a good and happy one (at least for our side and for the country).
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 02, 2016, 09:12:32 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/03/02/so-far-trump-wins-open-primaries-and-cruz-wins-closed-and-the-calendar-is-starting-to-change-toward-more-closed-primaries/

This supports the notion that Trump draws reasonable Dems over to his/our side in a way the Cruz does not.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 02, 2016, 09:40:00 AM
Cruz and Rubio combined won more delegates than Trump.  Outside of Texas, Rubio won more votes in the South than Cruz, taking second in Georgia and Virginia. 

The dynamic of this race needs to change.

Rubio and Kasich have the best general election matchups.  Latest from RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
                                                 Clinton (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/27   --   --   46.5   43.5   Clinton +3.0
CNN/ORC   2/24 - 2/27   920 RV   3.0   52   44   Clinton +8
FOX News   2/15 - 2/17   1031 RV   3.0   47   42   Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   43   45   Trump +2
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   44   43   Clinton +1


General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton
                                                 Cruz (R)Clinton (D)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/27   --   --   46.5   45.0   Cruz +1.5
CNN/ORC   2/24 - 2/27   920 RV   3.0   49   48   Cruz +1
FOX News   2/15 - 2/17   1031 RV   3.0   46   45   Cruz +1
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   46   43   Cruz +3
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   45   44   Cruz +1

General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton
                                                 Rubio (R)Clinton (D)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/27   --   --   48.5   43.5   Rubio +5.0
CNN/ORC   2/24 - 2/27   920 RV   3.0   50   47   Rubio +3
FOX News   2/15 - 2/17   1031 RV   3.0   48   44   Rubio +4
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   48   41   Rubio +7
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   48   42   Rubio +6

General Election: Kasich vs. Clinton
                                                Kasich (R)Clinton (D)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/17   --   --   47.7   40.3   Kasich +7.4
FOX News   2/15 - 2/17   1031 RV   3.0   47   44   Kasich +3
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   47   39   Kasich +8
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   49   38   Kasich +11

General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
                                                 Sanders (D)Trump (R)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/27   --   --   49.8   41.8   Sanders +8.0
CNN/ORC   2/24 - 2/27   920 RV   3.0   55   43   Sanders +12
FOX News   2/15 - 2/17   1031 RV   3.0   53   38   Sanders +15
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   48   42   Sanders +6
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   43   44   Trump +1
All General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Polling Data

General Election: Cruz vs. Sanders
                                                Sanders (D)Cruz (R)Spread
RCP Average   2/10 - 2/27   --   --   50.0   40.3   Sanders +9.7
CNN/ORC   2/24 - 2/27   920 RV   3.0   57   40   Sanders +17
Quinnipiac   2/10 - 2/15   1342 RV   2.7   49   39   Sanders +10
USA Today/Suffolk   2/11 - 2/15   1000 LV   3.0   44   42   Sanders +2
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 02, 2016, 10:44:00 AM
Doug,
since you are more closely involved then me what would you say that Trump will have to do to reverse this gap?

I really don't believe his changing the consideration for temporarily banning Muslims is truly the key.  That is just a leftist tool.  I don't really think the goal of dealing firmly with illegals is the key.

Perhaps if he stops the vulgarity?  What do you think?

More conservatism?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 03, 2016, 09:48:32 AM
Doug,
since you are more closely involved then me what would you say that Trump will have to do to reverse this gap?

I really don't believe his changing the consideration for temporarily banning Muslims is truly the key.  That is just a leftist tool.  I don't really think the goal of dealing firmly with illegals is the key.

Perhaps if he stops the vulgarity?  What do you think?

More conservatism?

ccp,  This new health care plan is an example of how he can improve the campaign and so was his tax plan, which he also hasn't read or pushed.  He couldn't go into one more debate not having a clue and siding with Sanders on healthcare.  He promised to quit swearing.  He acted Presidential, they say, in his press conference Tuesday.  All of that said, I don't think he can quit being himself, and if he did he would just be a regular politician.  You also don't get another try at a first impression.  Theone he has made now is lasting.

He can 'clarify' his Muslim comment and follow with a more detailed proposal, like with healthcare.  He said, paraphrasing, ...until the Obama administration knows what is going on and who is coming in.

Trump has crossover appeal, but that is already built in to his numbers.  His support is roughly 33% of the Republican vote, with 2/3rds preferring someone else.  His overall disapproval is over 60%, a record for a winning politician.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/187607/donald-trump-known-not-liked.aspx  91% are familiar with him and 32% approve.

To me it isn't how Trump can close his general election losing gap, it is this: why are Republican voters choosing the candidate most likely to lose - the White House AND the Senate?

To beat Trump his opponents need to drive his support down from 33% to about 29%, that is, break off one out of ten remaining Trump supporters.  Closed primaries and the fact that after Kentucky and Louisiana he is starting to run out of southern states will help with that. 

Also, the rest of the remaining field to get its act together!
Title: Morris: Clinton v. Trump not inevitable
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 03, 2016, 12:26:12 PM
Trump And Clinton Are Not Inevitable
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on March 3, 2016
Amid the celebrations of the successful Dunkirk evacuation of World War II, saving most of the British and much of the French Army, Prime Minister Winston Churchill cooled the festivities by saying: "This is not the end. This is not the beginning of the end. This is, however, the end of the beginning."

Super Tuesday isn't even the end of the beginning. It is the beginning of the end of the beginning. The beginning will end when Rubio and Kasich drop out of the Republican field and the FBI reports the outcome of its investigation of the Democratic candidate.

Once the GOP field is reduced to two, the process will unfold in the months ahead. It may not be fully resolved until June 6 when California (proportional) and New Jersey (winner-take-all) vote. And we will have no real measure of Bernie Sanders' strength until the FBI sings.

Rubio denies that he is dropping out, but death comes slowly to the political candidate. First rigor mortise sets in around his wallet and the money dries up. Then the polling goes to hell and, finally, he loses his home state. Measure Rubio's life expectancy as two weeks. Same with Kasich.

And, with Ben Carson out of the race, his evangelical votes will likely go to Cruz.

Once it is Trump vs. Cruz, we start the real battle. In this era of precision-guided munitions, if they can see you, they will kill you. The only way to win is to advance in stealth, usually in the shadow of your opponent. But Trump is very far from stealth. He is a big brassy band, noisily making his way to the front-runner's circle.

Now, every business deal, every laid-off worker, every stiffed contractor, every disgruntled or evicted tenant, every defrauded student, every disappointed business partner is going to be heard from week after week, month after month. Nobody will pay the slightest attention to Cruz. He can't win, after all. And, gradually, he will start winning primary after primary as the Trump brand is -- rightly or wrongly -- besmirched.

Can Trump evade the precision-guided missiles that will come his way? Can he dodge the bullets? Will they bounce off?

And can Trump begin to get 50 percent plus one of the vote any place? Every place?

We don't know. He is nothing if not sui generous. But the challenge is coming. Don't bet on the end yet.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders proved on Super Tuesday that Hillary can't win any state that does not have a significant black population. Colorado, Oklahoma, Vermont, and Minnesota have little in common except their color: pure lily white.

Sanders will carry the white states. On March 5th, look for him to do well in Kansas and Maine (but not Louisiana or Kentucky). He'll lose Michigan, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina on March 15.

But then he will win Oregon, Washington, Montana, Utah, and the prairie states. These victories will keep him alive and in play. His losing proportion of the vote in the big states will keep him close.

Then we will see the results of the FBI primary. Just as Yogi so eloquently said, "It ain't over till it's over," this one is not over until the FBI is heard from.

As long as Sanders is in the race, there is a receptacle for anti-Hillary votes. And with a coming recommendation of an indictment highly possible, that receptacle can fill up pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Morris: Clinton v. Trump not inevitable
Post by: DougMacG on March 03, 2016, 12:47:57 PM
[After it's down to Trump and Cruz] "Nobody will pay the slightest attention to Cruz. He can't win, after all. And, gradually, he will start winning primary after primary as the Trump brand is -- rightly or wrongly -- besmirched.

If Trump brand is going to fall, why not sooner rather than later?
Title: Now here is a different strategy
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 03, 2016, 12:58:39 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/432261/ted-cruz-marco-rubio
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 03, 2016, 02:49:52 PM
great idea  :-D

Title: 2016 Presidential - GOP Debate #11
Post by: DougMacG on March 04, 2016, 10:09:23 AM
I listened only on the radio so I missed some of the fighting where they talk over each other.  I have a bias and not undecided so what I think of each isn't crucial anymore.  The media highlights are the fights and the vulgarity, not the substance.  

The feedback I heard from people less political is that this level of 'discussion' is embarrassing and un-Presidential.

What should have happened in the primary process was 17 pretty strong candidates auditioning to see who can best articulate what has gone wrong over the Obama years (and before that) and who is in the best position to fix it with the best proposals to put us back on the right course.  The large field and the large number of debates should have served to expose the failures of the current regime to the point where all but the most hardcore leftists can see failure.  

And then along came Trump, and now the result of this process is that Republicans are in total disarray, mostly off-topic, perceived totally off-topic, while Obama's approval/disapproval rating has actually improved over the process.  We are picking the candidate to represent us who polls worst of the whole field against the opposition.  He is a caricature of what opponents think is all wrong about Republicans and his belief in conservative principles less than skin deep.

Contenders like Cruz, Rubio and others tried to defeat Trump on substance throughout this process, made no headway and ran out of time.  So Rubio in particular tried to attack him back in kind.  That makes Rubio look desperate and no better than the vulgar one.

Instead of seeing the failure of the Obama Presidency, we just see the failure of this process that is promising to get worse.

Meanwhile, Obama and Hillary elevate as people tune out the Republican side show.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 04, 2016, 04:17:31 PM
Moved here by request.
"Paul Ryan isn't going to be the President"

That is right.  So why is there a pac trying to rally him to run?

These last minute desperation moves by establishment types is not helping ( and I don't want to hear these very same people suggest there is no "establishment" - they know who and what we mean)

I can only conclude that the people behind these pacs are con artists taking money from people who have money.

None of this helps the right.

Who knows.  What I would not rule out in this bizarre election year is that if Trump and Hillary are the nominees and #neverTrump is a serious viewpoint that this becomes, not a 3-way, but maybe a 4-way race and conservatives could run someone who was not on any ballot in any primary, in addition to Bloomberg running or whoever challenges the felon on the left.  For me, a ticket with the names Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal or Scott Walker come to mind.  Not Romney.  Not Ryan.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 04, 2016, 05:44:30 PM
Speaking of Bobby Jindal


The new leftist socialist (I mean democrat) governor is already trashing him for a budget deficit.

No mention that a lot of it has to do with a crash in oil prices.  So what do you do when your state is in recession?  Well if you are a damn liberal you - hike taxes - to squeeze the people who produce even more so they can pay for the wealth re distribution programs.

You want to keep the second poorest state poor.  Watch what happens in the next 4 yrs.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 05, 2016, 08:28:10 AM
A Daily Expression of (Political) Gratitude:  As I have been trashing the youngest generation of voters, even to my daughter, this group that helped bring us Obama and is now so excited about Bernie and socialism.  These young 'adults' are ignorant to the failures of socialism and unlike our generation who believed at least in questioning authority instead of just voting the same as your teachers, professors and media who are at least 90% ultra liberal. This week I found out that my daughter, feared to be turning left, went out to the caucus in her small college town with no prompting from here and unlike her peers voted for the same conservative candidate as me!  That won't turn the country around but it makes me feel better about it all.  I am so proud that the destruction of our country that is about to happen is not her fault!  :-D

Liberal and leftist ideas sound great but they don't work.  I wish someone would tell the rest of her generation that.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 05, 2016, 10:02:47 AM
 8-) 8-) 8-)

In a similar vein here is this from my sixteen year old son (sorry for the swearing):

"Bernie Sanders is cancer. He's tweeted things a myriad of times which demonstrate a lack of basic Econ 102 material, he only uses emotional appeals, his budget will add trillions to the debt, he'll raises taxes for literally EVERY SINGLE TAX BRACKET, he doesn't know shit about foreign policy, and his moral code makes me want to blow my fucking brains out.

"But that's all irrelevant, since he wouldn't pass a single fucking law, considering most democrats hate him and republicans probably imagine him to be Darth Vader sitting on a throne of American soldiers eating babies and damning Christ. Not only that, he wouldn't be able to do anything as a commander in chief, since his response to the only question he's been asked about ISIS on national television was to talk about climate change. Have you EVER seen him talk foreign policy? Even once? It's pathetic.

"We would effectively have no fucking president, just a whiny, emotion-worshipping, altruist, pseudo-socialist moron sleeping in a bed in the Oval Office.

"And on the front of ideology, he can't even name his own positions correctly, since he's not a socialist, or a democratic socialist, but a social democrat. He's so fucking adenine he doesn't know that "Democratic socialism" still involves appropriating the means of production.

"He's a fucking joke of a presidential candidate, and this picture is a pretty accurate description of the annoying Sanders posts that holier than thou mental 12 year olds love to spam. "
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on March 05, 2016, 04:49:49 PM
Awesome! "Mental 12 year olds".

 :-D

You have raised your son right.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 05, 2016, 05:09:47 PM
I confess to being more than a tad proud  :-D :-D :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 06, 2016, 11:47:00 AM
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/03/05/gop-congressman-warns-donald-trump-release-the-taxes-or-obamas-irs-will/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%203-6-16%20FINAL&utm_term=Firewire
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 07, 2016, 08:45:29 AM
I confess to being more than a tad proud  :-D :-D :-D

He is scary-good at this!  I take back my proposal to raise the voting age to 30.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 07, 2016, 10:07:29 AM
Bringing some of this over from the Clinton Crime Family thread.

"Donald is who brought this down, single-handedly"

I meant the tone, profanity and vulgarity.  The fault is Trump, the media, and Trump's mastery of the media.  We ought to be able to invite the children to watch a "Presidential" Debate.  Rubio made the hands joke but it was more subtle.  He joked that hand size correlates with trustworthiness, got bad feedback and dropped it.  Then Trump went on national television and started making public assurances about his manhood.  Coincidentally, he is close friends with the guy who "did not have sexual relations with that woman...", and is still the most popular of the living former Presidents.

But before that Rubio and others went after him on every issue only to be ignored while the media attention was going to Trump by a ratio of 58:1.

Case in point, Crafty asked why no one is bringing up China's provocations in the South China Sea, but Rubio has made that point is every stump speech he has given - to the brink of being disqualified for repetition - and the reporter following speech tells his editor nothing newsworthy happened there, no gaffes and no over the top rhetoric, and they switch back to Trump's proposal to ban all Muslims from entering.   He went to the levity and the edge of the gutter only after everything else failed in a 17 way race and then a 4 way race.  Compare the coverage of defending the South China Sea with a hand joke.  Trump knows where people want there reassurances.  Trump is right unless people vote either for the guy who would defend the South China Sea (or the one was against legalization from the beginning).

On immigration, there is no doubt that Trump brought this up with a landmine in his opening, linking illegals to crimes committed here - taking real data right out of Ann Coulter's book and making it sound like all of them are rapists.  Ever since he didn't back down on the followup to that, the media has been addicted to him.  He constantly attracts more attention than he deserves - even here!

Crafty:  "Certainly he brought spotlight to the [immigration] issue, but as Cruz says, he was donating to 5 of the Gang of Eight when they were looking to pass Amnesty while Cruz was fighting it."

True, but that is not what is visible to the casual viewer.  The cameras don't follow Cruz or Rubio except to wait for a gaffe or an overstep and then they are disqualified, not worshipped.  Trump brings out the issue by saying it irresponsibly and insincerely.  He knows they aren't all rapists and he knows he was giving money to Pelosi-Reid just a minute ago and that just adds to the shock value.  His way is better (in the current media world) than Cruz being right and consistent or Rubio struggling to address both sides and solve the issue.  The boldness of his talk makes people think he will get it done, but as Crafty mentioned, the "off the record" tapes along with his previous opposing positions might make you think otherwise. 

But ccp is right.  The party has ignored these people and the law on this issue, taken our country down the tubes out of fear that Democrats would take it down the tubes without them.  25-40% would rather lose and be heard and represented than be part of the RINO liberal ruling coalition.  Same goes for shutting down destructive and counterproductive programs and agencies like the Fannie Mae CRAp that brought down our economy last time.  But the ones who would actually do that get no voice, no audience and no coverage.

Trump saw an unaddressed market and knew that 25-40% is yuuuge in a crowded field.   He knew something powerful in terms of media manipulation but what he knew is ugly.  We are worse off for the tone of Donald and like other societal decay, the country will never be the same again.  "Bleeding from wherever"[Kelly], "just look at her! [Fiorina]", "He's a nasty, nasty guy"[Cruz], "Bush Lied and People Died", "believe me, there's no problem [down] there", "little Marco" [a former college football player of average height], "Third rate radio show, nobody listens" [Hugh Hewitt radio show where Trump has been a guest at least a dozen times].

The best chance we have to control the border now is to nominate someone who would do that, is electable, can help hold the Senate, and can work something acceptable through Congress.  Trump brought it to the spotlight; someone else can see it through.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 07, 2016, 10:48:57 AM
These could go under media and professional journalism.

1.  Hillary needs to release Wall Street speeches.  Bernie says that at a quarter million each, these must be great speeches.  Why can't we see her at her very best?

2.  Trump needs to direct NY Times to release off the record conversation with their editorial board.  Why can't we know now he plans to run in the general election and how he plans to govern?  It might affect our vote...

3.  Trump needs to release his tax returns.  HE is the one who makes a big deal out of his finances.  They are great.  They are huge.  It's Missouri primary time, show us!  Show us now!  You know they'l be 'leaked' in the general election.

4.  Obama needs to release his college transcripts.  I had to throw that in there, point being that when it doesn't favor the media agenda, nobody makes it happen.  Young students ought to know what it takes to get into Columbia, Harvard Law School and elected President.

5.  None of this will happen.  Let's vote without knowing the most important things about the most important people.  What could possibly go wrong.  The media thinks it is the opponents' responsibility to press these (when it doesn't fit their agenda) and then they don't cover the opponents when they do so.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 07, 2016, 11:26:07 PM
Be warned-- you will not be able to unsee this!  :lol:

https://www.facebook.com/darren.kendrick.18/videos/10153991752484993/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 10, 2016, 01:18:42 PM
http://www.glennbeck.com/2016/03/10/fox-news-makes-trump-look-presidential-cruz-look-cheap/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20160310GlennBeckDaily&utm_term=Glenn%20Beck
Title: "We stopped Trump!"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 12, 2016, 07:34:34 PM
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-trump-protesters-20160312-story.html

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-bernie-sanders-supporters-shut-down-donald-trump-rally-chicago#
Title: Re: "We stopped Trump!"
Post by: DDF on March 12, 2016, 09:37:46 PM
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-trump-protesters-20160312-story.html

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-bernie-sanders-supporters-shut-down-donald-trump-rally-chicago#


The protestors are going to regret that. This will get ugly.
Title: Re: "We stopped Trump!"
Post by: G M on March 12, 2016, 09:41:47 PM
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-trump-protesters-20160312-story.html

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-bernie-sanders-supporters-shut-down-donald-trump-rally-chicago#


The protestors are going to regret that. This will get ugly.

So, in America in 2016, violence is the proper response to speech you don't like. Lovely.
Title: MoveOn takes credit?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 12, 2016, 10:45:27 PM
Reliability of this source is unknown

http://www.teaparty.org/soros-funded-moveon-org-takes-credit-violence-chciago-148626/
Title: Soros
Post by: ccp on March 13, 2016, 04:07:38 AM
Surviving the holocaust partly by giving up information on his own people to the Nazis messed up his brain.
Title: Re: "We stopped Trump!"
Post by: DDF on March 13, 2016, 07:21:03 PM
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-trump-protesters-20160312-story.html

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/how-bernie-sanders-supporters-shut-down-donald-trump-rally-chicago#


The protestors are going to regret that. This will get ugly.

So, in America in 2016, violence is the proper response to speech you don't like. Lovely.

Evidently, I'm not alone in that thought, "Frauke Petry, who leads the Eurosceptic party, has suggested German border guards should open fire on illegal immigrants."

And neither are you... you carry a weapon, in order to protect yourself against, or impose yourself (depending upon a certain point of view of what is right or wrong, depending on the individual), against thugs.....do you not? If you don't, you certainly support people who do.

The world is a violent place, and in lieu of me whining about people that might be violent against me.... I say "let them.... they better be better at it than I am, and I make it my living to do so."

Not being smug.... just very matter of fact.

Liberals....

Not so much on Trump..... but a great reflection on what is going on with US politics currently.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3489936/Angela-Merkel-set-punished-voters-open-door-refugee-policy-Germany-s-Super-Sunday-state-elections.html

As I have stated previously.... I'd have zero problem serving a military totalitarian that I agreed with.... to the death..... I don't think I'm alone in that sentiment.... in fact....you serve one too whether you know it or not. If someone resisted arrest sufficiently.... would you take the force continuum all the way to the top? ;) I know my answer. It's the same thing.
Title: Morris: Cruz surging
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 14, 2016, 02:50:16 PM
Polling begun and completed after the March 10th Republican debate shows radical changes in Ohio and Illinois ahead of their March 15 primaries. In both primaries, Ted Cruz is surging, on the strength of a strong debate performance.

In Ohio, a winner take all primary with 66 delegates on the line, the latest poll by CBS, conducted from March 9-11, shows Trump and Kasich tied at 33% each with Ted Cruz surging to 27% up from his pre-debate showing of 19%.

Easy to dismiss as an outlier? Not if you also look at CBS’ Illinois poll that has Trump leading by 38-34 over Cruz after he had held a 34-25 lead earlier in the week.

And then there is Wyoming. Not a poll, but an actual caucus where Cruz won with an overwhelming 68% of the vote. Rubio ran second with 20% and Trump finished third — his first third place finish — with only 7%.

All these findings suggest that the March 10th debate may have been a big winner for Cruz. When Trump said that there were only two candidates who could win — him and Cruz — he may have unintentionally caused a massive exodus from Kasich and Rubio to the Texan.

Now, Cruz has a real shot at winning Ohio and Illinois. Coupled with North Carolina and Missouri — in both he has been polling a close second — March 15th could be the turning point of the race.
- See more at: http://www.dickmorris.com/cruz-surging-ohio-illinois-wyoming/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports#sthash.R4mdwmRD.dpuf
Title: Trump = Electoral Defeat of Epic Proportions
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 15, 2016, 08:18:23 AM
My Latest Exercise in Telling People Something They Don’t Want to Believe

Right now all indications are that Hillary Clinton will crush Donald Trump in a general election, and there will be no big surge for Trump in longtime blue states like New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

In New York, the most recent Siena poll has Clinton beating Trump, 57 percent to 34 percent. This is not a reflection of phenomenal popularity on her part; the survey finds 48 percent of registered voters in the Empire State feel favorable to her, and the same percentage feels unfavorable. But, the protestations of Root and other boosters aside, voters in Trump’s home state like him even less than Clinton; only 29 percent have a favorable view of him, compared with 59 percent who see him unfavorably. And what limited support Trump does get in New York doesn’t come from blue-collar voters, either: He does best among those who make more than $100,000 per year, and a full 64 percent of voters in that group still have an unfavorable opinion of him.

The outlook is equally grim across the river in New Jersey, where Trump’s Atlantic City casinos once made him a key employer. Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind survey, conducted last week, shows Clinton leading Trump 52 percent to 36 percent among registered voters in the Garden State. When asked to offer one word that describes Trump, New Jerseyans most commonly answered “arrogant,” “idiot,” “good,” “bad,” “obnoxious,” and “ass.”
In Michigan, the latest Marist poll has Clinton ahead of Trump, 52 percent to 36 percent. The exit poll from that state’s GOP primary found that 48 percent of its participants would be “dissatisfied” if Trump won the nomination, and 50 percent did not think Trump was “honest and trustworthy.”

Trump is at least within single digits of Clinton in the two biggest Rust-Belt states. The Republican firm Harper Polling finds Clinton ahead of Trump, 45 percent to 40 percent, in Pennsylvania, while in Ohio, PPP has Clinton ahead by the same margin and CNN has her ahead 50 percent to 43 percent.
When you say this to a Trump fan, they insist, “those polls mean nothing right now.” Even if the head-to-head numbers are not necessarily predictive, the favorable-unfavorable numbers are pretty relevant. Right now Donald Trump is detested by the general electorate -- the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, an astonishing 56 percent of respondents had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Trump -- and he would begin the general election as the most unpopular figure ever nominated to be the presidential candidate for a major party.

Or they point to the fact that 4.3 million people have already voted for him as a sign that he’s popular, blissfully ignoring the fact that the general election will feature around 130 million voters.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2016, 08:42:47 AM
Yup.  We are doomed.

Even if hillary is indicted (very unlikely) it won't mean squat.  She will continue to run or at best Biden jumps in and he trounces Trump.
Title: Arrest the Thugs...
Post by: objectivist1 on March 15, 2016, 02:19:09 PM
Arrest the Thugs

The Left’s bullies cannot be allowed to hijack freedom of speech for an entire nation.

March 15, 2016

Frontpage Editors

First the Left unleashed anti-war rallies against President Bush in support of Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda. Then it brought out Occupy Wall Street to push the radical Marxist agenda that Bernie Sanders is now riding like a red wave through the Democratic Party. Finally, it unleashed the racist hate mobs that looted and burned neighborhoods and cities, singled out white people for harassment over the color of their skin, terrorized campuses and incited the murder of police officers.

The common agenda of all these hateful campaigns was to radicalize, intimidate and terrorize Americans into submitting to the totalitarians of the Left. From the inner city neighborhood to the Ivy League campus, from a couple having brunch in the morning to a police officer on patrol being shot in the head, from a political rally to the Thanksgiving Day parade, these thugs of the Left are out to enforce their tyrannical Party Line through political terror.

While the media call these so-called protesters “non-violent,” they completely ignore the fact that suppressing someone else's free speech is an act of intimidation. To prevent someone else from speaking is not a debate. It's the refusal to have a debate. Protesters have the right to be heard, but silencing views you disagree with is not a protest. It is the exercise of totalitarian power. And the Left’s organized efforts to prevent opposing points of view from being heard have now migrated from the campus to the city. The media call these crybullies the victims. But they are not victims. They are thugs who are using brute force to suppress the free speech and political freedoms of others.

Donald Trump has as much right to hold a rally as Bernie Sanders. His supporters have as much right to come out to hear him speak. The Left's refusal to accept this is a definitive rejection of freedom of speech and democracy.

For all his faults, Donald Trump is to be commended for standing up against all this, and for his cool under fire. When a leftist fascist attempted to attack him recently at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, and succeeded in grabbing his foot before he was subdued by Secret Service agents, Trump quipped: “I was ready for him but it’s much easier if the cops do it, don’t we agree?”

Trump’s opponents, both Republican and Democrat, and the Obama administration should realize what’s at stake – if, that is, they have any interest in preserving the American tradition of non-violent political disagreement. The unseemly haste of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich to blame Trump’s rhetoric for the violent shutdown of his Chicago rally is extraordinarily disappointing: they should realize that the same violence can and will be turned against them if they stray too far from the thugs’ idea of what constitutes acceptable political discourse.

There is only one answer to a movement that is determined to thuggishly shut down the speech of others. And that is prison. We can either have speech democracy or speech tyranny in which the biggest thugs and the nastiest bullies decide who gets to speak and who has to shut up. The leftist fascists who shut down Trump’s Chicago rally should be arrested and energetically prosecuted. Barack Obama, so quick to issue statements about black and Muslim victimhood, should (if he cared at all about the principles that allow for a republic) immediately issue a statement stressing the importance of civility and respect for political dissent, and decry the shutdown of the Trump rally.

Obama won’t issue any such statement, of course, and that’s a large part of the problem. Much, much more is at stake in the shutdown of Trump’s rally than most Americans realize. As it becomes increasingly perilous to dissent from the leftist line in America, we can only hope that a sufficient number of Americans will awaken to what is happening in time to hold today’s political and media elites to account for the damage they have done and are doing to the American public square.

The political thugs of the Left cannot be allowed to hijack freedom of speech for an entire nation. Either we arrest the thugs or we will all exist confined in a prison where a handful of thugs can tell us what to we may say and what we may think.
Title: Prager: The Left may well get Trump nominated
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 15, 2016, 06:21:40 PM
http://www.dennisprager.com/the-left-may-well-get-trump-nominated/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on March 15, 2016, 07:11:56 PM
Trump is Darth Vader. He just grows stronger the more you hate him.  :mrgreen:


Dahnoled..... I am yo Fadah!

Dying with laughter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2016, 07:25:44 PM
I don't think so.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on March 15, 2016, 07:27:33 PM
I don't think so.



It's a free country. I know this is making a lot of people quite upset. Me? I love chaos.
Title: kasich is now looking like a jerk
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2016, 07:30:29 PM
And Kasich sounds like a fool

He can only win 43 % of *Republicans* in his state when 54 % vote against him and he gets slaughtered in every other primary and yet he stands there and gives a speech  like he is a victor?!   What a schmuck.

Get our of the race damnit !  Clear the road for Cruz.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 15, 2016, 07:36:48 PM
"I don't think so."

DDF ,

Trump has 67 % negatives.  Many *republicans* will never vote for him.

He is getting crushed in the national election.  The numbers against Hillary or Sanders are WIDENING in their favor.

He has yet to garner 50% of any Republican electorate.

I don't want to spend the next 8 years with another Clinton.  That is what we are headed for.  We will lose the Senate too.  And the Supreme Court.

If Trump supporters have a better view of the planet then I do good luck.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on March 15, 2016, 07:37:01 PM
Cruz can't win.....

"Trump has won at least 159 delegates in Tuesday's contests. John Kasich has picked up at least 73 delegates — most of them for winning Ohio — while Ted Cruz has won at least 24 and Marco Rubio will get at least four.

There are still 107 delegates left to be allocated.

The overall race for delegates:

Trump: 619.

Cruz: 394.

Rubio: 167.

Kasich: 136.

It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president."


The only way Cruz can even get on the ballot is for the RNC to steal the nomination from Trump, in which case.... the GOP will be sending a Clinton (God help us all), or a Communist (equally distasteful), to the Whitehouse.


I posted this a while ago. Trump will be the next president, or the GOP has to accept something even worse. The complete evisceration of the GOP party as we know it.

Pretty simple.
Title: Re: kasich is now looking like a jerk
Post by: DDF on March 15, 2016, 07:38:17 PM
And Kasich sounds like a fool

He can only win 43 % of *Republicans* in his state when 54 % vote against him and he gets slaughtered in every other primary and yet he stands there and gives a speech  like he is a victor?!   What a schmuck.

Get our of the race damnit !  Clear the road for Cruz.

CCP.....Love to play you a game of correspondence chess sometime.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Hillary beats Trump and takes the Senate too
Post by: DougMacG on March 16, 2016, 08:25:59 AM
Rubio lost his home state by 19 points.  Kasich won his with less than a majority.  Judge by that standard, Trump loses his home state NY to Hillary by 20, not exactly bringing more states into play as promised.

A sad moment for me.  My endorsement now goes to Cruz, but I can't see a path to victory for him even though he has beaten all expectations I had for him earlier.  

Yes, Kasich is playing the role of jerk and spoiler, but he us right on one thing.  Paraphrasing, if you are in school and you know all semester that 90% is required for an A and you get 87, 88 or 89% your grade is not an A.

1237 delegates is an arbitrary number but not a random one.  It is a majority, 50% +1 just like the party has had for 160 years.  In state and local politics, the threshold to nominate is often 60%.  To be extreme, let's say Trump gets 1236 but pisses of all of the others.  Does he get the nomination?  That depends.  If 'the party' then 'throws' it to someone else after the first ballot, his supporters will call that stealing it.  But if Trump wins the extra vote by threatening riots as he is, that is endorsement by extortion or intimidation.  A political convention is run by the 'seated' delegates, not the people who sent them there -after the first ballot.  On the second, third ballots etc. they will do what they think is right or best.  If not-Trump becomes a team and has more votes than Trump, so be it.  Either way we are divided and screwed.  To leave Cleveland without making an endorsement is another (obscure) possibility.

Reagan said someone who agrees with you 80% of the time, agrees with you.  Trump isn't there for me.  His tax plan is good (but he can't enact it).  But he won't cut spending to make up the difference.  The wall is good, but most of his immigration talk is hype.  Where else do I agree with him?  Or trust him?  Did he call for shrinking the size and scope of government?  If so, I missed it.  He is courting the trade protectionists, running against free trade, which also happens to be the Sanders view.  His view on Kelo and private property is abominable.  Small issue, says Pat?  No, it is core foundation of private property rights vs crony government power.  It defines where he would go with judicial appointments which is to the left of Sandra Day O'Connor, making constitutional limits on power even more meaningless.  He sides with the Bush Lied People Died Left on foreign policy and doesn't know what a nuclear triad is much less whether to rebuild it.  Basically stay home until attacked.  Good luck with that.  Planned Parenthood does good work; he would federally fund it. 50 million slaughtered, 50 million injured.   Under the authority of what Article or Amendment is the rest of the work they do authorized under the constitution?  Who cares about that when you are a living, breathing, shrinking constitutionalist.

His politics ensures a loss in the Senate meaning that enacting his tax plan and the rest is not do-able.  What is he going to do now, go from state to state campaigning for the Republican establishment Senate candidates, hyping up their records to the electorate while running against them?  The Senate for 2017-2018 is 50-50 if you count 3 tossups as going to the Democrats.  http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-senate/  Pres. Hillary gets the majority (but not 60).  Pres. Trump does worse than 50-50 in the Senate if he continues running against his own party.  Whether he wins or loses the Presidency, he already lost the Senate.

The likely outcome now is that Trump gets the endorsement by virtue of his lead, and twice as many conservatives and Republicans stay home as did with Romney and the Republicans lose the Presidency, Senate, Supreme Court and possibly the House.  But hey, the Trumpests got what they wanted.  They sent a message to Washington and that message is that the R establishment sucks and Republicans will never unite and get their act together.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 16, 2016, 10:37:14 AM
There Will Be No Republican Unity in 2016

The Alliance wins the Battle of Serenity Valley. Agent Cooper gets trapped in the Black Lodge. Kylo Ren kills Han Solo. Buffy’s mother dies. Jon Snow gets stabbed in the back. Dan Conner suffers a heart attack. Jack can’t save Teri Bauer. Chinatown remains Chinatown. Bambi’s mom gets shot.
And Marco Rubio loses Florida to Donald Trump.

This year should tell us that nothing in politics is certain, but right now, there’s just no way for the Republican party to leave the convention in Cleveland unified. You can’t square this circle. A certain percentage of Trump voters won’t support anyone but their man as the nominee. On the flip side, 37 percent of Republican voters yesterday said they would “seriously consider” voting for a third party or other candidate if Trump is the nominee.

Barring a sudden Ted Cruz surge in the final 20 contests, the Trump folks will argue their guy won the most votes, the most states, and has the most delegates. We know how quick Trump is to hurl accusations he’s being cheated -- even when they’re baseless. Nothing we’ve seen in Trump’s behavior going back years indicates he’s capable of graciously conceding defeat and pledging to do his part to help elect the Republican nominee. Nothing we’ve seen from his supporters suggests they’re amenable to voting for Cruz or some other Republican.

On the flip side, the #NeverTrump crowd believes that voting for Trump is selling their souls, reducing themselves to the humiliating subservience of Chris Christie. They’ve seen religious leaders compare Trump to King David, Senator Jeff Sessions endorse the guy who hired illegal immigrants for construction jobs and off-the-cuff endorsed expanding the H-1B visa program, journalistic institutions turn themselves into propaganda outlets for him, and the media turn themselves into an all-Trump, all-the-time frenzy of alternating adulation and denunciation. (“Nothing too hard, Mika.”) The allegedly conservative party is now ready to sign on to the guy who defends Planned Parenthood, opposes entitlement reform, speaks warmly of Vladimir Putin, boasts he’ll be able to get the military to violate the law, won’t rip up the Iranian nuclear deal, mocks Carly Fiorina’s appearance, and lies constantly, obviously, and shamelessly. Trump corrupts everything he touches, and one plurality in the party can’t believe the other plurality is eager to give him the powers of the presidency and authority over the FBI, Department of Justice, and IRS.

And despite the overwhelming hype, he’s won 37 percent of the cast votes so far.

All the polling indicates Rubio would have crushed Hillary Clinton in a general election. Cruz looks like he’s got a shot -- not a great shot, but a shot. Donald Trump’s general-election numbers are sinking like a stone. (If you can stand him, John Kasich matches up quite well.)

Trump’s fans walk around with great confidence about his general election strengths for which there is no real evidence. They’re convinced he will win over traditional blue-collar Democrats. So far, he doesn’t. They’re convinced he will win over African Americans. Polling in February puts his support among African Americans between 4 and 10 percent. (Romney won 6 percent.) They’re convinced he’ll win a lot more Latinos than everyone thinks. (He’s currently at less than half Mitt Romney’s level of support.) They’re convinced he’ll win Democratic states like New York, New Jersey, and Michigan. (He trails by 18 to 23 points in those states in the most recent polls.)

Trump fans gleefully point to his 7.5 million votes in the primary so far, and forget that the universe of voters in the general election will be on a completely different scale -- probably 130 million voters. (Mitt Romney won 10 million primary votes.)

When you mention Trump’s awful head-to-head polling with Hillary Clinton, you hear a lot of references to Ronald Reagan’s trailing Jimmy Carter in March 1980. Ronald Reagan never had the unfavorable numbers Trump has now.

When everybody says, “Oh, the pundits and the elected officials and the other campaigns didn’t see the GOP grassroots embrace of Trump coming . . .” well, yeah; the pundits and the elected officials and the other campaigns thought better of the GOP grassroots.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 16, 2016, 02:03:40 PM
Many important points in that post.

"despite the overwhelming hype, he’s won 37 percent of the cast votes so far."

"Trump fans gleefully point to his 7.5 million votes in the primary so far, and forget that the universe of voters in the general election will be on a completely different scale -- probably 130 million voters"

"We know how quick Trump is to hurl accusations he’s being cheated -- even when they’re baseless."


We also heard he is the world's greatest deal maker.  What 'deal' does he offer me if I am a Rubio-Cruz-Kasich delegate that would cause me to back him versus forming an alternative coalition in the later ballots of a contested convention?  The only offer on the table is the promise of riots if I don't switch to him against my will.

For the record, I don't have an answer for the dilemma.  At this point, I wouldn't want Rubio offered up as an illegitimate candidate sure to piss off all Cruz and Trump supporters and lose.  Making it Cruz doesn't get us a win. Kasich is unacceptable unless he won it outright.  There are no uniters available or we would already have heard from them.  A third party conservative cannot beat Hillary with Trump still in, endorsed or not.  As already stated endlessly, we are screwed.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 18, 2016, 07:50:54 AM
Is Ted Cruz Going to Be Able to Pull This Off?

Right now, as a #NeverTrump guy, I’m rooting hard for Ted Cruz. We haven’t seen any polls conducted after Rubio’s departure from the race -- either in key upcoming states or nationally -- so we don’t have a good sense of whether anti-Trump Republicans are coalescing around him.

Tuesday Arizona holds its primary and Utah holds its caucus. At first glance, those are natural Cruz states, right?

[Cue ominous music.]

Notice that we’ve had two polls of Arizona Republicans -- you know, right next to Texas -- and Trump’s well ahead of Cruz in both. The two polls were conducted before Rubio dropped out, so maybe Rubio’s 10 to 12 percent will shift to Cruz and help the Texas senator make up the deficit of . . . 12–14 points. Uh-oh.

The last Utah poll was in mid-February, and had Rubio 24, Cruz 22, Trump 18. Caucuses usually have low turnout, but the Utah one may turn out quite different:

For its presidential preference caucus next week, the Beehive State’s Republican Party will allow any Utahn outside or inside the state to vote online. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation.

“We’re stepping out on the national stage in a way we never have before,” Bryan J. Smith, the executive director of the Utah Republican Party, said during a recent Utah caucus preparatory meeting. “This time it matters in more ways than you think.”

The Utah Republican Party said its new method of voting will mainly help families, workers, missionaries and military workers throughout the world, who can’t
be in town for voting. It also may help Utah mothers, who find themselves swamped with child care and work.  A week from now, if Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah . . . do people begin to doubt whether Cruz can win a one-on-one race against Trump? Or do anti-Trump Republicans begin to really turn their ire on Kasich for sticking around?

Politico reports, “Marco Rubio is close to endorsing Ted Cruz, but the two proud senators -- and recent fierce rivals -- have some details to work out first. Cruz has to ask for the Rubio’s endorsement, and both sides need to decide that it will make a difference, according to sources familiar with the thinking of both senators.”

If you’re Cruz, why wouldn’t you ask?

Meanwhile, one more ominous note for the #NeverTrump forces. According to the Associated Press count, Trump has 678 delegates, and needs 1,237. He’s 559 delegates away from winning the nomination, and 1,059 remain. Can Trump win 53 percent of the remaining delegates?

Even if you feel confident in saying “No, Trump won’t win that many delegates” -- and yeah, that’s a high bar to clear going forward -- so far Trump has won about 46 percent of the delegates available so far. (He’s done so with 37 percent of the votes cast in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.) Assume Trump maintains his current level of support throughout the rest of the process, and he’ll get 46 percent of the remaining 1,059 delegates. That gives him 492 more delegates.

Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates, just 67 short of what he needs. (It’s easy to picture Trump’s first phone call going to John Kasich, currently sitting there with 144 delegates.) Yes, you might hear talk or calls for a Cruz–Rubio ticket, but Trump will argue, with justification, he’s won 94 percent of what was needed to be the nominee.

Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on March 18, 2016, 08:08:57 AM
I don't think it's going to happen. I expect the GOPe to pull a "brokered convention" and serve us a giant shiite sammich. Which will shatter the pubs.

Is Ted Cruz Going to Be Able to Pull This Off?

Right now, as a #NeverTrump guy, I’m rooting hard for Ted Cruz. We haven’t seen any polls conducted after Rubio’s departure from the race -- either in key upcoming states or nationally -- so we don’t have a good sense of whether anti-Trump Republicans are coalescing around him.

Tuesday Arizona holds its primary and Utah holds its caucus. At first glance, those are natural Cruz states, right?

[Cue ominous music.]

Notice that we’ve had two polls of Arizona Republicans -- you know, right next to Texas -- and Trump’s well ahead of Cruz in both. The two polls were conducted before Rubio dropped out, so maybe Rubio’s 10 to 12 percent will shift to Cruz and help the Texas senator make up the deficit of . . . 12–14 points. Uh-oh.

The last Utah poll was in mid-February, and had Rubio 24, Cruz 22, Trump 18. Caucuses usually have low turnout, but the Utah one may turn out quite different:

For its presidential preference caucus next week, the Beehive State’s Republican Party will allow any Utahn outside or inside the state to vote online. This will be the first time any political party has allowed online voting for a presidential primary election in the nation.

“We’re stepping out on the national stage in a way we never have before,” Bryan J. Smith, the executive director of the Utah Republican Party, said during a recent Utah caucus preparatory meeting. “This time it matters in more ways than you think.”

The Utah Republican Party said its new method of voting will mainly help families, workers, missionaries and military workers throughout the world, who can’t
be in town for voting. It also may help Utah mothers, who find themselves swamped with child care and work.  A week from now, if Trump wins Arizona and Cruz wins Utah . . . do people begin to doubt whether Cruz can win a one-on-one race against Trump? Or do anti-Trump Republicans begin to really turn their ire on Kasich for sticking around?

Politico reports, “Marco Rubio is close to endorsing Ted Cruz, but the two proud senators -- and recent fierce rivals -- have some details to work out first. Cruz has to ask for the Rubio’s endorsement, and both sides need to decide that it will make a difference, according to sources familiar with the thinking of both senators.”

If you’re Cruz, why wouldn’t you ask?

Meanwhile, one more ominous note for the #NeverTrump forces. According to the Associated Press count, Trump has 678 delegates, and needs 1,237. He’s 559 delegates away from winning the nomination, and 1,059 remain. Can Trump win 53 percent of the remaining delegates?

Even if you feel confident in saying “No, Trump won’t win that many delegates” -- and yeah, that’s a high bar to clear going forward -- so far Trump has won about 46 percent of the delegates available so far. (He’s done so with 37 percent of the votes cast in Republican primaries and caucuses so far.) Assume Trump maintains his current level of support throughout the rest of the process, and he’ll get 46 percent of the remaining 1,059 delegates. That gives him 492 more delegates.

Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates, just 67 short of what he needs. (It’s easy to picture Trump’s first phone call going to John Kasich, currently sitting there with 144 delegates.) Yes, you might hear talk or calls for a Cruz–Rubio ticket, but Trump will argue, with justification, he’s won 94 percent of what was needed to be the nominee.

Derailing Trump will require a big surge from Cruz from here on out. Can he do it?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 18, 2016, 08:28:36 AM
I think there IS a chance for Cruz. 

Ideally for an outright win, but at the least to force an open convention with Trump a goodly distance from the finish line, allowing Cruz to shoot for majority status by getting Rubio and Kasich's delegates on the second round.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 18, 2016, 08:59:06 AM
'Trump has won 37% of 'GOP' votes cast'
"...Trump would enter the convention in Cleveland with 1,170 delegates"

And his only shot at 1237 is to bully delegates who vehemently oppose him to switch their vote.

I have attended as a delegate many state conventions that were 'contested'.  And hardly anyone has experience with a national convention that was truly contested.  (I believe Gerald Ford in 1976 was nominated on the first ballot though the convention was considered 'contested'.  Maybe Crafty remembers the Dems in 1968.  Wikipedia shows results of a 'final ballot' and violence but nothing on ballot result sequence.

Back to Trump, 2016.  He called Fiorina a what? "Just look at her!"  Ugly hag might be the words he meant if you listen to his rant.  He called Cruz "a nasty, nasty guy".  Among other things he called Rubio, "Little Marco", and so on.  Christie and Carson have endorsed Trump, neither has many delegates.  Kasich is the wild card with maybe or maybe not enough votes to swing Trump over the top if he tried.

Before the deal making begins (as I understand it), the first ballot goes the way of the scorecard.  Guessing from current trends, Trump in first, a little short of 1237, Cruz in second a few hundred back.  Kasich and Rubio have most of the remainder.

On the second ballot, if no deals were made and delegates just vote their preference, my guess is that Trump's numbers go slightly down.

Then what?  None of the anti-Trump people want the VP slot.  Kasich is the one who might take it for the country.  I guess any of them could.  Otherwise, what deal does Trump offer other than his promise to bring down the whole party if not awarded what he did not win.

Lindsey Graham's thinking is that the deadlock opens up the elevation of Kasich.  My earlier thinking was that it opens up the elevation of Rubio, but not after losing Florida and losing momentum everywhere else first.

More likely, the only alternative to 1st place short of a majority is second place, Ted Cruz.  Will Rubio endorse Cruz (yes) and will the Cruz and Rubio delegates combined be more than Trump?  (I don't know.)  Would Rubio want his delegates to go to Cruz for better governance or to Trump for legitimacy, finishing in first place?  I don't know.

Between ballots, there are delays and speeches.  Rubio, for one, steps up to the podium and "releases" his delegates to vote for (Trump or Cruz).  [Bush has delegates, probably doesn't make a long speech] Kasich is the wild card, probably keeps campaigning for himself on the second ballot, hoping to win on the 15th.  Then they vote again and delegates vote for whomever they please.  Slow process, results are announced and so on.

At the state level, delegates tend to be more conservative than the constituency.  That favors Cruz.  Cruz supporters probably also tend to be more involved in the party than Trump people, also favoring Cruz.  At the national level, you might find more of the so-called 'GOPe' types, more likely to favor Kasich.  Kasich polls better against Hillary; that becomes more relevant as time goes on and the other two can't get to 1237.

The question of stealing is to ignore the rules established for the process.  All along, Trump has wanted to use the benefits of the party while trashing it and its workers who made it all possible.

Where this ends, no one knows, but my point is that whatever the delegates decide on is the legitimate result, more so than elevating someone short of a majority who is (deservedly) strongly opposed by the majority.
Title: Judge Jeanie rants, no always logically
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 18, 2016, 09:19:37 PM
https://www.facebook.com/DJT2016/videos/1565022860492224/
Title: Some interesting tidbits
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 20, 2016, 06:12:18 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party.html?emc=edit_th_20160320&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193

Cruz: Trump is scared to debate
Title: If Hillary sits at the desk in the Oval Office
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 20, 2016, 08:23:16 AM


https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpf1/v/t1.0-9/10400857_811311805669525_7172680356484240413_n.jpg?oh=919576a5e7474dc9339deb8743961382&oe=574E2707
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 20, 2016, 08:40:49 AM
And she will have Monica back to work  at her old job.
Title: WSJ: Cruz's stealth delegate hunt
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 22, 2016, 09:27:55 AM
Ted Cruz’s Stealth Delegate Hunt
Senator’s campaign operates under-the-radar effort to prepare for contested Republican convention against Trump
Ted Cruz’s campaign has been laying the groundwork at local political events that choose delegates to the national GOP convention in case that gathering doesn’t select a candidate on the first vote. ENLARGE
Ted Cruz’s campaign has been laying the groundwork at local political events that choose delegates to the national GOP convention in case that gathering doesn’t select a candidate on the first vote. Photo: Courtney Pedroza/The Arizona Republic/Associated Press
By Janet Hook and
Reid J. Epstein
Updated March 21, 2016 8:05 p.m. ET
139 COMMENTS

MORELAND, Ga.—Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign has been operating an under-the-radar effort to prepare for a contested Republican convention this summer, and those moves appear to be bearing fruit in places such as this Atlanta exurb.

Though front-runner Donald Trump carried Georgia’s Coweta County by 12 percentage points three weeks ago, it was Cruz supporters who dominated an early stage of the arcane process of choosing the people who will serve as delegates at the Republican National Convention.

The goal: If Mr. Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot—freeing most delegates from voting for the candidate who won their state’s primary or caucus—Cruz supporters would dominate the convention, paving the way for the Texas senator to win the nomination on a later vote.

It is at events like the Coweta County Republican Convention last weekend where Mr. Cruz must prevail to have any reasonable chance of wresting the GOP nomination away from Mr. Trump. “We started preparing to get our folks to the convention in 2015,” said Scott Johnson, a top Cruz organizer in Georgia.

Heading into Tuesday’s contests in Arizona and Utah, Mr. Trump has secured 678 delegate slots—255 more than Mr. Cruz, who is a distant second. Mr. Trump needs to take about 56% of the delegates in the 22 states left to allocate them to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold to win the nomination on the convention’s first ballot.

Mr. Cruz’s path to a first-ballot victory is far harder: He must secure 81% of the remaining delegates—a herculean task in a three-man race given that many of the remaining states award delegates proportionally or by congressional district.

Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has gathered 143 delegates, has no mathematical chance of winning a first-ballot vote. His only hope is for a contested convention that turns most of the delegates bound to candidates into free agents.

But Mr. Trump’s rivals have another, less visible path to influence over the national convention. In Georgia and elsewhere, the campaigns are navigating a little-known political process that occurs after each state’s primary or caucus sets out how many delegate slots each candidate is allotted.
ENLARGE

In precinct, county, district and state meetings, Republicans now are determining which people will get delegate slots at the national convention. These party activists will fill the arena floor in Cleveland and be called on to shout out the number of delegates awarded to each candidate from their state, until one hits 1,237.

At a Washington news conference Monday, Mr. Trump predicted he would win enough delegates in the remaining state votes to avoid a contested convention, but he said he has a delegate-selection team in place in case he doesn’t.

“I think I’ll get the votes. We’ll see what happens. Maybe I won’t,” Mr. Trump told about 200 reporters at the site of a hotel he is developing five blocks from the White House.

Mr. Cruz’s presidential hopes increasingly rest on a convention scenario not seen since 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas E. Dewey won the GOP nomination on the third ballot. To succeed, he is relying on organizers like Brant Frost, a 25-year-old mortgage broker in Georgia who began volunteering for his campaign last July.


Mr. Frost estimates that Cruz supporters will make up 90% of Coweta County’s delegates at Georgia’s coming state and district gatherings, from which delegates to the national convention will be chosen. “We’re trying to get Cruz supporters there so when delegates can vote for whoever they want, they will vote for Ted,’’ Mr. Frost said.

As for Mr. Kasich, for weeks his campaign had focused entirely on last Tuesday’s Ohio primary. The day after he won, Mr. Kasich’s aides held a five-hour meeting to adopt a strategy to secure delegate slots for supporters. The aides declined to disclose any details.

“Were plotting all that out,” said John Weaver, Mr. Kasich’s senior strategist. “We’ll have people at every state convention and at every district convention. It’s going to be hand-to-hand combat.”

Meantime, Mr. Trump will try to harness the same voter energy he used to win 20 primaries and caucuses to capture seats for supporters at the national convention, said Ed Brookover, a former Ben Carson strategist who now serves as the New York businessman’s head of a delegate-selection team.

“This is not difficult to figure out in any one state,” Mr. Brookover said. “It only sort of begins to get complicated when you’re talking about 56 different places,” he added, referring to every state and the U.S. territories that participate in the nomination contest.
Utah's Republican party is attempting one of the biggest online voting rollouts in U.S. history, allowing residents to cast ballots on phones, tablets and computers. WSJ's Shelby Holliday explains how the process works in WSJ's Campaign Q&A. Photo: iStock

Even before Mr. Trump romped to victory in Georgia’s March 1 primary, Cruz supporters dominated the first stages of the complex process for selecting the state’s delegation to the national convention. The Texas senator’s supporters made up the preponderance of would-be delegates who on Feb. 20 attended precinct and county meetings to enroll at county conventions.

In straw polls that day conducted by the Georgia Association of Republican County Chairmen, 63% of attendees backed Mr. Cruz, compared with 13% who were Trump supporters.

It was more a measure of organizational strength than electoral clout; Mr. Trump went on to win the Georgia primary with 38.8% of the vote. Mr. Cruz was third, at 23.6%.

“A lot of Trump supporters are new,” and so didn’t know they had to be at Georgia precinct meetings a month ago, said Phoebe Hobbs, a Trump backer attending a GOP convention Saturday in Cobb County, northeast of Atlanta. “There’s a reason they are upset [with the political system]. They don’t know how the party is run.”

After his primary victory, Mr. Trump sent his top Georgia organizer to Florida, an indication his campaign didn’t put a premium on the post-primary delegate-selection process.

Last week, Mr. Trump’s campaign tried to play catch-up. An email Thursday evening from the campaign’s Georgia state director urged supporters to attend the Saturday county conventions and explained the rules.


“Just because we won the primary election, doesn’t mean our job is finished,” wrote Brandon Phillips, Mr. Trump’s Georgia chief. “Media reports indicate that career politicians and the political class are plotting to deny Mr. Trump the nomination by preventing our supporters from representing Mr. Trump as his delegates at the Republican National Convention.”

On Saturday, dozens of people arrived at the Cobb County convention without having met the party’s requirement of attending prior precinct and county meetings. Most of them were likely Trump supporters.

Randy Evans, a veteran party official who was chairman of the convention, waived those and other requirements.

But it remains unclear how many of them will be able to attend the state and district conventions at which national convention delegates will be selected, because most delegate slots were already allocated.

That seemed not to matter to Trump supporters like Yvonne Malin, a 62-year-old retiree from Marietta, Ga., whose presence at the Cobb County convention marked her first attendance at such a Republican gathering.

“The country is falling apart; I don’t feel safe anymore in my own country,” Ms. Malin said, adding she is so anxious that she bought a gun for the first time.

Ms. Malin probably will qualify to be an alternate at the next-level congressional district convention in April, but she may have joined the effort too late to gain access to the state convention in May. “I am so excited just to be here,” she said.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, weak opponents
Post by: DougMacG on March 24, 2016, 10:26:51 AM
This illustrates the problem for Republicans:

President Obama Job Approval (Real Clear Politics)
Approve 48.8
Disapprove 46.8
Approve +2.0

He was at a significant negative when 17 pretty good Republicans set out to replace him.  With available and obvious facts, they should have been able to drive his approval to rock-bottom.  Hillary running and winning on a platform of more-of-the-same was inconceivable.

60% of Republican voters are embarrassed by this campaign while the persuadable in the middle see it worse.  Caliphate it the Middle East, ISIS in Europe, global stagnation and the worst US economic recovery in history are all the new normal, the results of this governance, and the Republicans are seen as offering a circus sideshow instead of an about-face change of direction in policy and results.

First place for the Republicans is the guy who matches up worst against Hillary and second place is the one who matches up second to the worst.

She could beat these guys wearing an orange jumpsuit.

Is there some good news I missed in this?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 24, 2016, 01:00:47 PM
We keep hearing rumors about brokered conventions. 

I don't know which is worse.  We nominate Trump and almost certainly lose. 

Or nominate someone else and he goes 3rd party like the vindictive guy he can be and his  followers will vote for him out of spite and we lose the election anyway.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 24, 2016, 02:10:24 PM
Umm , , , forgive me but as far as I can tell it is a matter of "open" or "contested" but not "brokered" convention.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on March 24, 2016, 02:25:58 PM
IMHO, Trump will beat Hillary or any Democrat easily.  I know this directly contradicts the poll data that is being reported - but I simply don't trust it.
Say what you will, but I simply don't believe Trump's negatives are anywhere near as bad as they are being portrayed by the media.  I am highly suspicious - since a Trump presidency would demonstrate that current presidential campaign advisors are devoid of value.  Add this to the fact that many K Street lobbyists would no longer be able to buy influence, and you have a recipe for the wholesale destruction of many high-dollar advisory, media, and influence-peddling careers inside the beltway.

The people who will be directly affected by this are NOT going to go quietly into the night.  They will fight tooth and nail to maintain relevancy.  Thus I believe you have a  massive disinformation campaign regarding Trump on the part of the media and traditional paid consultants.

Rush Limbaugh spoke about this at length on the air a couple of days ago.  Time will tell - but my gut tells me the idea that Trump will necessarily lose the general election to Hillary or any other Democrat is pure manufactured B.S.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 24, 2016, 06:09:58 PM
objectivist: 

With due respect I think you are mistaken to think that every poll if way off mark.

I for one am getting more offended every day by Trump.  I started out very open minded and agreed with immigration etc but his behavior is getting really ridiculous as is this latest back and forth with Ted Cruz about the wives. 

I want a President not a reality show or a gossip column.

You are with all due respect very mistaken on how many other Republicans very much dislike him and mean what they say when they will not vote for him

Probably nearly every Black most Latinos and Asian will vote against him. 

He is driving voters away at least as fast as he brings them in. 

Hillary will run even in the unlikely event of an indictment in my humble opinion.

Even if indicted she will have her terror lawyers go after a misdemeanor "just like Petreaus".

And she will still run.

Either way to just ignore sky high negatives for Trump is putting one's head in the sand.

If I am wrong Doug McG will buy you breakfast   :-D
Title: appears dick morris agrees with objectivist
Post by: ccp on March 24, 2016, 07:20:14 PM
http://www.dickmorris.com/trump-draws-14-million-new-republican-voters/#more-17539
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 24, 2016, 07:28:48 PM
Yet, if I am not mistaken, the EDC has more votes in her primaries than Drumpf has in his.

Yes, Rep vote totals are up dramatically, but perhaps Drumpf is a bit of the rooster who thinks his crowing caused the sun to rise.

OTOH
a) LOTS of Americans are REALLY concerned about where the country is headed; and
b)  Plenty of Americans are plenty worried about Drumpf and are voting to stop him.
Title: Re: appears dick morris agrees with objectivist
Post by: DougMacG on March 25, 2016, 07:31:18 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/trump-draws-14-million-new-republican-voters/#more-17539

"The Trump voter is exactly the type that stayed home in 2012."

Yes, his support comes from new or alienated voters but it comes at the cost of 70% disapproval of all women and many other negative factors.  He loses nationwide by double digits (current polling), loses NY by 19 points.  I was wrong about him not bringing new states into play; he could be the first Republican to lose Utah.

Some polls are wrong, but Republicans can believe all polls are wrong to their peril. 

Trump supporters believe that with his talent he will change those polls, we have 7 months to go.  He hasn't fought that fight yet.  But just as supporters stand by him, detractors are pretty set in their opinion of him too.

No one here may vote for Hillary but I might admit she is better on foreign policy and on trade policy.  Trump won't be competitive in my state.  He will cost us the state house and 2 congressional seats.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz
Post by: DougMacG on March 25, 2016, 07:45:02 AM
The GOP nomination now comes down to process.  If Trump has 1237 before the election, he wins on the first ballot.  Experts say that will be really really close.  If the rest of the states were proportional he would fail, but he wins NY, leads in Calif, etc.

If Trump fails to win on the first ballot, the advantage goes to Cruz:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433136/republican-contested-convention-favors-ted-cruz-over-donald-trump

Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz
...
there are states such as New Hampshire, Georgia, and Ohio, which have open primaries that allow Trump-leaning Democrats and independents to cast ballots, but where delegates are elected through processes set up by state Republican parties who are by definition, well, Republicans.
...
There is perhaps no better example of Trump’s potential weakness on the floor in Cleveland, and of Cruz’s strength, than South Carolina. Trump won every single one of the 50 delegates up for grabs in the state’s February 20 primary, which was open. But to serve as a delegate from South Carolina, one has to have been a delegate to the 2015 state convention, held before Trump even announced his candidacy.
...
[Arizona] Trump won the state’s primary on Tuesday evening, but regardless of what any campaign does, the majority of Arizona’s 58 delegates, who are unbound after the first ballot, are likely to defect to Cruz on subsequent votes.



Title: CAIR busy registering Muslims to vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 25, 2016, 06:26:21 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/25/cair-scrambles-to-register-millions-of-muslim-voters-to-stop-trump-movement/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on March 27, 2016, 08:51:40 AM
I just read the number of Muslims in the US in now 7 million not 3.

It was obvious to me it is more than just 3 because here in NJ there is an explosion of Muslims from Northern Africa and the Middle East.

The problem is that it is hard if not impossible which ones harbor a hatred of the US, Christians, and Jews.

I lot of the Hindu Indians also have huge frictions with the Muslims from ancient wars etc.

Trump has driven any hope of attracting or keeping any Muslims in or to the Republican party down the whirlpool.

Title: Mexico's Glass House
Post by: G M on March 28, 2016, 06:01:36 AM
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2009/01/13/mexicos-glass-house-2/
J. Michael Waller
Mexico’s Glass House
mexico_southern_border
Articles | January 13, 2009 | Borders

     EmailPrint
Every country has the right to restrict the quality and quantity of foreign immigrants entering or living within its borders. If American policymakers are looking for legal models on which to base new laws restricting immigration and expelling foreign lawbreakers, they have a handy guide: the Mexican constitution.

Adopted in 1917, the constitution of the United Mexican States borrows heavily from American constitutional and legal principles. It combines those principles with a strong sense nationalism, cultural self-identity, paternalism, and state power. Mexico’s constitution contains many provisions to protect the country from foreigners, including foreigners legally resident in the country and even foreign-born people who have become naturalized Mexican citizens. The Mexican constitution segregates immigrants and naturalized citizens from native-born citizens by denying immigrants basic human rights that Mexican immigrants enjoy in the United States.

By making increasing demands that the U.S. not enforce its immigration laws and, indeed, that it liberalize them, Mexico is throwing stones within its own glass house. This paper, the first of a short series on Mexican immigration double standards, examines the Mexican constitution’s protections against immigrants, and concludes with some questions about U.S. policy.

 

Summary

In brief, the Mexican Constitution states that:

Immigrants and foreign visitors are banned from public political discourse.
Immigrants and foreigners are denied certain basic property rights.
Immigrants are denied equal employment rights.
Immigrants and naturalized citizens will never be treated as real Mexican citizens.
Immigrants and naturalized citizens are not to be trusted in public service.
Immigrants and naturalized citizens may never become members of the clergy.
Private citizens may make citizens arrests of lawbreakers (i.e., illegal immigrants) and hand them to the authorities.
Immigrants may be expelled from Mexico for any reason and without due process.
 

The Mexican constitution: Unfriendly to immigrants

The Mexican constitution expressly forbids non-citizens to participate in the country’s political life. Non-citizens are forbidden to participate in demonstrations or express opinions in public about domestic politics.  Article 9 states, "only citizens of the Republic may do so to take part in the political affairs of the country."  Article 33 is unambiguous: "Foreigners may not in any way participate in the political affairs of the country."

The Mexican constitution denies fundamental property rights to foreigners. If foreigners wish to have certain property rights, they must renounce the protection of their own governments or risk confiscation. Foreigners are forbidden to own land in Mexico within 100 kilometers of land borders or within 50 kilometers of the coast. Article 27 states,

"Only Mexicans by birth or naturalization and Mexican companies have the right to acquire ownership of lands, waters, and their appurtenances, or to obtain concessions for the exploitation of mines or of waters. The State may grant the same right to foreigners, provided they agree before the Ministry of Foreign Relations to consider themselves as nationals in respect to such property, and bind themselves not to invoke the protection of their governments in matters relating thereunto; under penalty, in case of noncompliance with this agreement, of forfeiture of the property acquired to the Nation. Under no circumstances may foreigners acquire direct ownership of lands or waters within a zone of one hundred kilometers along the frontiers and of fifty kilometers along the shores of the country." (Emphasis added)
The Mexican constitution denies equal employment rights to immigrants, even legal ones, in the public sector. Article 32: "Mexicans shall have priority over foreigners under equality of circumstances for all classes of concessions and for all employment, positions, or commissions of the Government in which the status of citizenship is not indispensable. In time of peace no foreigner can serve in the Army nor in the police or public security forces."

The Mexican constitution guarantees that immigrants will never be treated as real Mexican citizens, even if they are legally naturalized. Article 32 bans foreigners, immigrants, and even naturalized citizens of Mexico from serving as military officers, Mexican-flagged ship and airline crew, and chiefs of seaports and airports:

"In order to belong to the National Navy or the Air Force, and to discharge any office or commission, it is required to be a Mexican by birth. This same status is indispensable for captains, pilots, masters, engineers, mechanics, and in general, for all personnel of the crew of any vessel or airship protected by the Mexican merchant flag or insignia. It is also necessary to be Mexican by birth to discharge the position of captain of the port and all services of practique and airport commandant, as well as all functions of customs agent in the Republic."

An immigrant who becomes a naturalized Mexican citizen can be stripped of his Mexican citizenship if he lives again in the country of his origin for more than five years, under Article 37. Mexican-born citizens risk no such loss.

Foreign-born, naturalized Mexican citizens may not become federal lawmakers (Article 55), cabinet secretaries (Article 91) or supreme court justices (Article 95).

The president of Mexico, like the president of the United States, constitutionally must be a citizen by birth, but Article 82 of the Mexican constitution mandates that the president’s parents also be

Mexican-born citizens, thus according secondary status to Mexican-born citizens born of immigrants.

The Mexican constitution forbids immigrants and naturalized citizens to become members of the clergy. Article 130 says, "To practice the ministry of any denomination in the United Mexican States it is necessary to be a Mexican by birth."

The Mexican constitution singles out "undesirable aliens." Article 11 guarantees federal protection against "undesirable aliens resident in the country."

The Mexican constitution provides the right of private individuals to make citizen’s arrests. flagrante delicto, any person may arrest the offender and his accomplices, turning them over without delay to the nearest authorities."  Therefore, the Mexican constitution appears to grant Mexican citizens the right to arrest illegal aliens and hand them over to police for prosecution.

The Mexican constitution states that foreigners may be expelled for any reason and without due process. According to Article 33, "the Federal Executive shall have the exclusive power to compel any foreigner whose remaining he may deem inexpedient to abandon the national territory immediately and without the necessity of previous legal action."

 

Notional policy options

Mexico and the United States have much to learn from one another’s laws and practices on immigration and naturalization. A study of the immigration and citizenship portions of the Mexican constitution leads to a search for new policy options to find a fair and equitable solution to the immigration problem in the United States.

Two contrary options would require reciprocity, while doing the utmost to harmonize U.S.-Mexican relations:

1. Mexico should amend its constitution to guarantee immigrants to Mexico the same rights it demands the United States give to immigrants from Mexico; or
2. The United States should impose the same restrictions on Mexican immigrants that Mexico imposes on American immigrants.
These options are only notional, of course. They are intended only to help push the immigration debate in a more sensible direction. They simply illustrate the hypocrisy of the Mexican government’s current immigration demands on the United States – as well as the emptiness of most Democrat and Republican proposals for immigration reform.

Mexico certainly has every right to control who enters its borders, and to expel foreigners who break its laws. The Mexican constitution is designed to give the strongest protections possible to the country’s national security. Mexico’s internal immigration policy is Mexico’s business.

However, since Mexican political leaders from the ruling party and the opposition have been demanding that the United States ignore, alter or abolish its own immigration laws, they have opened their own internal affairs to American scrutiny.  The time has come to examine Mexico’s own glass house.

– – –

J. Michael Waller, Ph.D., is the Center for Security Policy’s Vice President for Information Operations.

 

[1] The official text of the Constitution of Mexico appears on the Website of the Chamber of Deputies, or lower house of Congress, of the United Mexican States: http://www.cddhcu.gob.mx/leyinfo/txt/1.txt. An authoritative English translation of the Constitution of Mexico, published by the Organization of American States, appears on the Website of Illinois State University: http://www.ilstu.edu/class/hist263/docs/1917const.html. Quotations in this document are from the OAS translation.
Title: Hillary trickery in AZ vote?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2016, 07:56:39 AM
Site unknown

http://usanewsflash.com/breaking-hillary-clintons-election-fraud-in-arizona-exposed/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2016, 12:41:29 PM
Pasting Doug's post from the Trump thread here:

The polls are right - except for the little preface, if the election were held today.  Hs supporters have the belief that when Trump turns his attention to Hillary, he will destroy her.  (Just as I know Rubio is the best communicator, won Florida by a million votes, etc.) Trump supporters may be right, but the polls today already take all that into consideration, her felonious existence and his own pluses and minuses.  There isn't much left to say about either one of them (that hasn't already been said).


"November will be a blood bath.  Even Alexander the Great couldn't get us out of this jam."
BEGIN
Isn't it strange that with 7 months to go, no one can think of a solution.
Our alternatives:
1) Go with Trump now, hope he runs and governs well.
2) Go with Trump after he hits 1237 delegates, hope he runs and governs well.
3) Go with second place Cruz on the second ballot.  Lose all Trump supporters.  Lose the election.
4) Take Rubio, Kasich, Ryan or somebody else on the second (or 50th) ballot, Lose all and Cruz and Trump supporters.  Lose the election.
5) Run a conservative 3rd party candidate against Hillary and Trump, Scott Walker, Rick Perry, anyone who wasn't on the primary ballots.  Trump Supporters stay with Trump.  Hillary wins.
6) Merge a ticket, Trump-Cruz, Trump-Rubio, Trump-Kasich.  But the only one who gains from that is Trump, offering the false promise that any veep will have 2 cents of influence over how he governs.

I lean toward 3) , 4) and 5) above, the not-Trump options.
END

I go with Cruz.  It is not impossible he wins on the first round.  He has a very good chance of winning on the second round.  He has been doing the hard backroom work that means that delegates that are committed to Trump on the first round are his on the second.  The establishment has already conceded that it can live with him in order to stop Drumpf.

In addition to his hard line Constitutional principles, his positions, I think Cruz's tactics during the campaign leave the door open for him to appeal to Trump voters.  Cruz too has not yet turned his sights on the Empress Dowager, (nor has the FBI?). 

Cruz can beat Hillary.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 28, 2016, 01:40:42 PM
Crafty:  "I go with Cruz.  It is not impossible he wins on the first round.  He has a very good chance of winning on the second round.  He has been doing the hard backroom work that means that delegates that are committed to Trump on the first round are his on the second.  The establishment has already conceded that it can live with him in order to stop Drumpf.

In addition to his hard line Constitutional principles, his positions, I think Cruz's tactics during the campaign leave the door open for him to appeal to Trump voters.  Cruz too has not yet turned his sights on the Empress Dowager, (nor has the FBI?). 

Cruz can beat Hillary."


Agree.  First, hold Trump short of 1237. 
I agree Cruz is in a good position to win on the following ballots if he gets that far. 
His nomination in this way is totally legitimate, but won't be seen that way by opponents.
Start now by separating Trump supporters from Trump.  We want Trump supporters; we don't want Trump (as the nominee).  We didn't create his negatives.  He did.
Because this endorsement would be totally legitimate, whoever gets to 1237 first, I see Trump eventually endorsing Cruz.  (Probably didn't want the job anyway, or why would he act like this?)

Once Republicans unify, Cruz is at about -3% in the popular vote against a failed Democratic felon, losing the electoral college by about 40-50 votes.  That is a better starting point than all the other remaining alternatives. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2016, 01:45:11 PM
Not familiar with the projected electoral college numbers for Cruz, but the polls I currently see have him beating the EDC by about 3, Kasich beating her by 11 and Drumpf losing by 11 (working from memory here on Kasich and Drumpf).

Title: More viagra for Bernie!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2016, 01:46:21 PM
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/274470-clinton-aide-new-york-debate-depends-on-tone-of-sanders
Title: Re: More viagra for Bernie!
Post by: DougMacG on March 28, 2016, 01:59:25 PM
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/274470-clinton-aide-new-york-debate-depends-on-tone-of-sanders

Hillary's other moniker was 'the nutcracker'.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 28, 2016, 02:04:19 PM
"Not familiar with the projected electoral college numbers for Cruz..."

That was just my own, off the cuff estimate.  Most believe she wins the electoral college at a popular vote tie, so the electoral win is significant at 3 points of margin.

"RCP Average   3/16 - 3/22   --   --   46.7   43.8   Clinton +2.9
FOX News   3/20 - 3/22   1016 RV   3.0   44   47   Cruz +3
Bloomberg   3/19 - 3/22   815 LV   3.4   51   42   Clinton +9
Quinnipiac   3/16 - 3/21   1451 RV   2.6   45   42   Clinton +3
CBS News/NY Times   3/17 - 3/20   1058 RV   4.0   47   44   Clinton +3
Title: Dem Skullduggery in AZ
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 29, 2016, 09:30:41 AM
https://www.facebook.com/hevding/videos/10153332327186394/
Title: 2016 Presidential: Team Rubio asks Minnesota GOP not to release delegates - yet
Post by: DougMacG on March 30, 2016, 12:42:30 PM
Team Rubio asks Minnesota GOP not to 'release' delegates — yet.
http://www.startribune.com/team-rubio-asks-mn-gop-to-not-release-delegates-yet/374012961/

A fight is looming in Cleveland.
Title: Morris: Cruz victory possible
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 30, 2016, 06:08:06 PM
Cruz Victory Possible
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on March 29, 2016
Donald Trump is most likely to win the GOP presidential nomination. But Ted Cruz definitely has a path to victory if he can win key contests.

Trump's current delegate lead over Cruz and John Kasich (Trump has 736 delegates, Cruz 463 and Kasich 143, according to The Associated Press) is more apparent than real. At some point, Marco Rubio is likely to endorse Cruz and release his 171 delegates. Since the Rubio campaign was conceived in the womb of the establishment's anti-Trump initiative, his delegates are likely to go to the Texan en masse, giving Cruz 634 delegates, only 102 behind Trump.

If Cruz wins Wisconsin, he will take most of its 42 GOP votes. And if, on April 9, he prevails in the Colorado delegate selection caucus -- there will be no presidential primary or caucus in that state this year -- he will get the bulk of the state's 37 delegates. That should cut Trump's lead substantially -- perhaps to 70 or so.

A Wisconsin win by Cruz, which would be the Texan's first victory in a major Northeastern industrial state, would show that as Trump's popularity among women declines, Cruz is in a position to pick up important victories.

The senator can expect to lose the April 19 race in New York (for 95 delegates), the next state in line, but proportional rules may allow Cruz and Kasich to win a third of the delegates.

After New York, Cruz will be competitive and get his share of the delegates in most of the remaining states: Connecticut (28), Maryland (38), Rhode Island (19), Indiana (57) and New Mexico (24). He will likely pick up Nebraska's 36 delegates and Montana's 27 in their winner-take-all format, but may lose New Jersey's 51 and Delaware's 16 winner-take-all delegates.

Then comes California, with 172 delegates to be allocated proportionately under rules where the winner gets the vast bulk of the seats.

The latest poll, by the Los Angeles Times, shows Trump only 1 point ahead of Cruz in California, 36 percent to 35 percent (Kasich takes 14 percent). That means in March, the billionaire's lead has dwindled from 11 to 5 to 1. Cruz is catching up fast. If he can keep growing, he will win a large share of the state's delegates.

At the convention, Pennsylvania and North Dakota could make the difference. While the GOP binds its superdelegates, unlike the Democrats, to vote proportionately as their state has voted, the delegates from Pennsylvania (71) and North Dakota (28) are free to vote as they wish.

In all, it appears unlikely that Trump will win a first ballot majority. With Rubio's support, Cruz will may well come within a 100 votes of Trump, setting up a second ballot.

At that point Cruz could have an ace in the hole, since he has moved in skillfully behind the primaries that have already been held to get as many second ballot delegates as possible. In many states, like South Carolina, delegates are not selected in the primaries but at subsequent caucuses. If Cruz can fill the seats with delegates favorable to him, they can switch on the second ballot, having satisfied their legal obligations by backing Trump on the first ballot.

At some point, Kasich must realize he has no hope. The fundamental fact is that most Cruz delegates, if released, would probably go to Trump rather than to Kasich, and most Trump delegates would back the Texas senator rather than the Ohio governor. The basic establishment/anti-establishment fault line still has Trump and Cruz on one side and Kasich on the other.

So Cruz may be in good shape to win on the second ballot. If, that is, he can win in Wisconsin and repeat his victories in other Northeastern states.
Title: Cruz goes after the Empress Dowager on Benghazi on Erin Burnett
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2016, 06:36:00 AM
A bit out of date but shows Cruz's ability to handle disruptive questions and stay on point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81yahgUJBSw
Title: Re: Morris: Cruz victory possible, Chaos in Cleveland
Post by: DougMacG on March 31, 2016, 08:58:09 AM
Good analysis - except for the part where he calls Wisconsin a northeastern state. (?)
---------------------------------------------------------

Cruz is saying we can't change the rules, but setting the rules for the convention is what they always do coming into a convention.

"Rule 40" was written and passed by Romney's people to keep Ron Paul off the ballot in 2012.  You have to receive 50% or more of the vote in 8 states won to be on the ballot.  That is not a very reasonable criteria for state contests that had 17 candidates competing.  Not reasonable, that is, unless if it favors your candidate.

Some states release their delegates after the 1st ballot.  Others release their delegates from their state's vote after the 3rd ballot.  One area where the RNC needs to get ahead of the game is to set scheduled times for balloting.  Republicans might still be fighting and mudslinging instead of having speeches aimed at the general election on prime time.

The 1237 majority of possible delegates threshold does not go down if the convention drags on and delegates have left the floor or the building.  Are they going to set up porta-potties in the delegations? The delegate and the alternate who could step in might very well not be supporting the same candidate.   Delegates may need food and drink tasters...  The seating of alternates is a political matter in a contested convention.

The thought now is that Trump falls just short on the first ballot, and his count goes down each ballot after that.  What if the Cruz total goes down too and the convention is more divided than expected?  Can a rule change be proposed and enacted from the floor in between ballots?

One oddity of a contested convention is that multiple candidates will be vetting and announcing their VP selections to attempt to gain advantage and momentum.  (See Reagan-Schweiker, 1976.) That could mean there are 4 to 8 or more actual candidates roaming the floor, wooing delegates, looking for cameras.

We have never had a realtime contest like this in the age of twitter, vidku, etc.  Besides information traveling fast, so does dis-information.  False stories, cell phone and email hacking, and cell signal overload all possible in an arena of 20k with everyone scrambling for communications.


The Copper Clapper Caper involving Claude Cooper from Cleveland might have been easier to follow.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjquGpmgwOo
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on March 31, 2016, 01:34:30 PM
The GOPe will torpedo both Trump and Cruz. The convention will be more rigged than a North Korean election.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on March 31, 2016, 03:06:45 PM
The GOPe will torpedo both Trump and Cruz. The convention will be more rigged than a North Korean election.

They can game the rules, but they can't really control how the delegates vote.

I believe that if Trump doesn't clinch it, the nomination moves to Cruz.  The only others with delegates are Kasich and Rubio.  Kasich moved to the moderate wing, has no support from conservatives who started with Trump or Cruz.  Rubio must know he is jinxed if he wins this without earning it.  He has enough political trouble already, losing his Presidential run, giving up his Senate seat,  By losing Florida to Trump he lost the enthusiasm for a gubernatorial run.  He won't be Trump's VP pick and it's hard to see how he is Cruz' best choice, being a nearly identical demographic - and didn't carry Florida.  I don't think you go further down the chain than Kasich or Rubio.  Not Romney, not Ryan, not Jeb.  Not the people that are already surrogates of someone else, Christy, Jindal, Fiorina, Walker, Graham.  Not Boehner, not Mitch McConnell, not McCain,  I could go on.  None has any better claim than Cruz to say they could or should be the nominee if the anti-Trump vote is bigger than Trump.

Cruz is better off winning this in an open format than by limiting the choices.
Title: Heh heh, no Third Party run for Drumpf
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2016, 08:31:30 PM
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/03/trump-independent-bid-all-but-impossible

Hat tip CCP
Title: Save the Constitution!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 03, 2016, 06:58:19 AM
https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/04/we-must-not-destroy-the-constitution-to-save-it?utm_source=c-internal&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=save-the-constitution-4-1-2016
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 03, 2016, 12:11:37 PM
Strangely it is the (non-existent?) Republican Party of California in June that will determine what the Presidential ballot will look like for the nation in 2016.  If Trump can't clinch, someone else eventually will.

Trump is 500 delegates short of the 1237 needed right now, with 848 remaining.  He could lose Wisconsin, win NY and some other states and get within the 172 Calif. delegate reach by June 7.  

California for the most part is 53 separate, congressional district elections, very difficult to sweep if votes tend to go with regions or demographics.

Primary Calendar    G.O.P. delegates   
Delegates Remaining   848   
APRIL 5   Wisconsin   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-MOST  42   
APRIL 8   Colorado Republican Conventions  37
APRIL 19   New York   95   
APRIL 26   Connecticut   28   
Delaware   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL   16   
Maryland   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-MOST   38   
Pennsylvania   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-MOST   71   
Rhode Island      19   
MAY 3   Indiana   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-MOST  57
MAY 10   Nebraska Republican Primary  G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL  36   
West Virginia   34   
Oregon   28   
MAY 24   Washington State Republican Primary  44   
JUNE 7   California   172   
Montana   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL   27
New Jersey   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL   51
New Mexico      24   
South Dakota   G.O.P. WINNER-TAKE-ALL   29  JUNE 14   
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0
--------------------------------------------------------------

After all the Kasich hoopla, I notice that Marco Rubio is still in third place in the delegate count.  Depending on rules not yet set, if Trump cannot win on the first or second ballot and if Cruz cannot win on the 3rd or 4th ballot, and if they start taking more names into nomination, I would look for Kasich and Rubio to re-enter the contest, not Romney or Ryan or a "fresh face".  What happens after that is all legitimate if it follows the agreed rules of the process.  

In a contested convention, it becomes a game of momentum.  Let's say Trump is a  delegate or 2 short on the first ballot and 3 or 4 delegates short on the second ballot.  He will only go down from there.  Same will be true for Cruz after delegates are gradually released.  If he is rising while Trump is falling but peaks short of 1237, once his momentum stops, he is done.

My current prediction is Cruz on the third ballot.  Failing that, Rubio on the 27th ballot.  Then, as Priebus pointed out, it is the delegates who decide the VP choice, not the Presidential nominee.

Take the advice of the exciting governor of Ohio, better get your seat belt on...

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, frontrunner Hillary Clinton has a close race going with FBI Director James Comey.
Title: Morris: Ruyle 40 (b)
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 04, 2016, 11:38:55 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/rule-40b-stops-the-gop-convention-from-being-stolen-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 04, 2016, 12:46:03 PM
second post

By Reid J. Epstein
Updated April 4, 2016 11:18 a.m. ET
376 COMMENTS

WEST ALLIS, Wis.—With a potential loss looming in Wisconsin’s Tuesday primary, Donald Trump’s path to clinching the Republican presidential nomination ahead of July convention is increasingly narrow.

Making the climb to the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the GOP nomination tougher for the front-runner are states where the local GOP doesn’t bind delegates to candidates: Delegates from North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming aren’t required to back a specific candidate, nor are 54 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates. Heading into the Wisconsin vote, Mr. Trump must win two-thirds of the remaining bound delegates in other states to clinch the GOP presidential nomination on the convention’s first ballot, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

Regardless of the results Tuesday in Wisconsin, Mr. Trump can’t clinch the GOP nomination before June 7, when California and four other states complete the party’s nominating calendar.

Mr. Trump’s steep path to 1,237 delegates drastically increases the likelihood of a contested Republican National Convention in July.
Title: a lot of behind the scenes jockeying.
Post by: ccp on April 05, 2016, 05:23:38 AM
I don't know what to think.  On one hand I am not happy with establishment Ryan but I cannot see how Trump could win a general election. (He is our of favor with me.  It is 100% clear he lacks the impulse control to be President.)   And I just do not seeing Cruz winning either:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/charles-koch-paul-ryan-nomination_us_57029099e4b083f5c6082b95
Title: Re: a lot of behind the scenes jockeying. Ryan, Presidential, Rule 40b
Post by: DougMacG on April 05, 2016, 08:22:21 AM
I don't know what to think.  On one hand I am not happy with establishment Ryan but I cannot see how Trump could win a general election. (He is our of favor with me.  It is 100% clear he lacks the impulse control to be President.)   And I just do not seeing Cruz winning either:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/charles-koch-paul-ryan-nomination_us_57029099e4b083f5c6082b95

One problem with Paul Ryan for President is that it puts the Republican House back in disarray.  Other than that he didn't run for President or win a delegate, I think he would be a fine President.  I don't see how he would have fared any better in the primaries than Rubio.  Strong on most issues, no executive experience, favored comprehensive immigration reform.  He already has a chance to make a place in history by taking over as Speaker of the House at 45.  

I was really hoping to never have to know the exact wording of RNC Rule 40b, just like I hate the tax code, but here goes...

Rule 40b

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8 ) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-[/b]pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

In other words, if they keep this rule in the age of twitter and private and group messenging, anyone can place anyone in nomination at any time just by submitting a petition from a majority of delegates in 8 states to the convention secretary, an hour before the next ballot.  That kind of organization and support is way below what is necessary to win anyway.  A majority of delegates can vote that candidate down too.


Trump has won 37% of the votes cast so far and is likely to fall short of 1237 before the convention.  Just like the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers, he is not deserving of the nomination - unless that is what a majority of the seated delegates want.  If the 1st place candidate can't reach the magic number in the first couple of ballots, the delegates logically turn to the second place candidate and we will see if he can clinch it on the 3rd or 4th ballot.  Let's say Cruz also fails to clinch it.  I don't see why the 3rd and 4th place finishers don't have the same claim at that point to try to reach a majority that Cruz had when Trump fell short.

If this drags on, the feeling in the hall is that if we fail to endorse, this is not a major national party and Hillary will essentially run unopposed.  Time and patience run down and attention will keep turning to who might win and make the deadlock end.  At one point, Rubio was everyone's second choice.  No one knows who that is now; people are guessing its Cruz.  The other scenarios only come into play if both Trump and Cruz fall short.

The RNC's responsibility is to make sure ballots start very early in the week (Saturday 8am?) and keep happening on scheduled intervals until done.
Title: WSJ: The case for Kasich
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 05, 2016, 09:51:29 AM
ll of a sudden the two Republican presidential front-runners seem unnaturally preoccupied with the guy in third place, and they’re teaming up to demand that John Kasich drop out. Why not let the voters decide, as Donald Trump and Ted Cruz otherwise like to say?

“Every day John Kasich stays in the race benefits Donald Trump,” the Texan said late last month, and over the weekend his campaign put up attack ads on Wisconsin TV accusing the Ohio Governor of cronyism. The Badger State has also been carpet-bombed with Cruz mailers challenging Mr. Kasich’s mostly excellent economic and fiscal record.

Mr. Trump is even more offended by Mr. Kasich’s existence. “If I didn’t have Kasich, I automatically win,” he said at a Sunday rally. The businessman added to reporters in Milwaukee on Monday that Mr. Kasich “shouldn’t be allowed to continue, and the RNC [Republican National Committee] shouldn’t allow him to continue. . . . He doesn’t have to run and take my votes, because he’s taking my votes, and he’s not taking Ted Cruz’s votes, he’s taking my votes.”

Mr. Trump’s understanding of democracy is unusual—candidates don’t own voters, and the party committee doesn’t dictate nominees. But he and Mr. Cruz do share a self-interest in trying to drive Mr. Kasich to the sidelines.

Mr. Trump is the only candidate left with a limited mathematical path to the 1,237-delegate majority to win the nomination before the July convention, and if he loses in Wisconsin on Tuesday Mr. Trump must win about two-thirds of the remaining bound delegates in 17 states. Mr. Kasich has more political appeal than Mr. Cruz in the southern New England and mid-Atlantic states that are more suburban and moderate. If Mr. Trump can threaten his way to a two-man race, he could get to 1,237.

As for Mr. Cruz, he’d have to sweep nearly every remaining primary to get to 1,237. He also knows Mr. Kasich has a better chance than the Texan does of denying Mr. Trump delegates in states like Pennsylvania and Maryland that vote on April 26. But Mr. Cruz wants to drive Mr. Kasich out of the race before the convention even if it means running a greater risk that Mr. Trump can get closer to 1,237. Mr. Cruz wants Mr. Kasich out now because he figures the delegates in Cleveland will choose Mr. Cruz if the choice is down to him and Mr. Trump. But if Mr. Kasich is still an option, the delegates might favor him as a better November candidate.

Mr. Kasich defeats Hillary Clinton by 6.3 points in current head-to-head polls, according to the Real Clear Politics average. Mr. Cruz loses by 3.1 and Mr. Trump by 10.8. Changing these polls would require gut renovations of the Trump and Cruz public images that will be hard for either to execute.

Mr. Kasich did the public service of winning Ohio’s delegates—with which Mr. Trump might have locked up the nomination—and he deserves a chance to see if he can win Pennsylvania or pick up delegates in the East and California. He has no hope of reaching 1,237 delegates before the convention, but what Messrs. Trump and Cruz really fear is that the convention might want to nominate a potential winner.
Title: Re: WSJ: The case for Kasich
Post by: DougMacG on April 05, 2016, 10:32:34 AM
Being a two term governor of a major state is a great credential, so is his service in congress.  But this isn't a resume election; it is a change of direction election according to the votes cast so far.

Kasich, Like Jeb, chose to run against the delegates and conservatism.  I don't know when John Kasich changed or why, but he isn't the same guy that stood by Newt in 1994.

This isn't a federal budget of 1998 and this isn't what we thought was the world threat level of 1990s either.  He hasn't shown an interest in getting up to speed (MHO) and he didn't run a national campaign.  

Ohio ranks 46th in median household income growth.  
http://www.usa.com/rank/us--median-household-income-growth-rate--state-rank.htm

Kasich lacks charisma and the ability to attract voters outside of Ohio.

Big government conservative is an oxymoron.  Kasich doesn't express any regrets for embracing it.

Son of a mailman, Kasich made $1.1 million in 2008 working for Lehman Brothers...
http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/ohiopolitics/entries/2010/04/02/kasich_made_11_m_in_2008_no_go.html/

What percent of those polled so far know that?  What percent will know that on election day?

Yes, he should be considered if Trump and Cruz fail.  No, he isn't the best choice.
Title: WSJ: Taranto: Cruz likely
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 06, 2016, 01:21:37 PM

By James Taranto
April 6, 2016 1:45 p.m. ET
433 COMMENTS

“[Donald] Trump’s second-place finish to Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Republican primary may represent no ordinary setback,” write the Washington Post’s Karen Tumulty, Jose A. DelReal and Robert Costa. “It appears to be a pivot point—although it has yet to be seen whether the trajectory from here points downward or upward.”

That is an absolutely rock-solid analysis. The likelihood that it will be proved mistaken is zero, maybe less. As the Weekly Standard’s Mark Hemingway observes, it illustrates “why national political reporters are so indispensable.” Our column is a solo effort, so if our work shines a bit less brightly than that of the Postly Trio, please show a little forbearance.

Anyway, Cruz did win big in the Badger State, topping Trump by 13% of the total vote, better than his margin in any poll. The Real Clear Politics average had Texas’ junior senator up by just 4.7%, though that was skewed by a late outlying poll in which Trump led by 10%. Asked the name of the firm that came up with that result, its head replied: “Argh!”

Even more intense frustration was voiced by the Trump campaign, which put out a statement accusing “Lyin’ Ted Cruz” of illegally coordinating with the super PAC backing him, and added: “Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet—he is a Trojan horse.” The statement promised victory in New York and wrapped up by claiming: “Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever [sic] is the Democratic nominee.”

That last statement is factually if not grammatically correct—though it’s carefully hedged. In Wisconsin Cruz picked up 36 delegates to Trump’s six, putting Trump’s overall lead (again, as per RCP) at 743-517, with 171 for Marco Rubio and 143 for John Kasich. A majority is 1,237, and it is increasingly unlikely anyone will reach that threshold before the primaries end in June.

David Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight.com writes that Trump needs 58% of remaining delegates; by our calculations that means Cruz would need 85%. Wasserman observes this gives Trump (in contrast, we’d add, with Cruz) “a realistic path to a delegate majority.” So as a practical matter, Trump is indeed the only candidate who can secure a majority.

That doesn’t mean he’s likely to do so, and it doesn’t mean he’s the only candidate who can win a majority. This column is increasingly of the view that Cruz is the likeliest nominee, notwithstanding Trump’s delegate lead.

Andrew Prokop of the young-adult site Vox maps the road ahead for Trump:

    He’d need wins (sometimes big wins) in Northeastern states like New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, and New Jersey. But even those victories wouldn’t be enough. He’d likely have to win the Indiana primary on May 3 too, and pick up a good share of delegates in proportional states like Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico.

    Most importantly of all, there’s the biggest delegate prize—California, which votes on June 7 and will send 172 delegates to the convention. Since the vast majority of the state’s delegates are allotted winner-take-all in its 53 congressional districts (three per district), Trump would likely need to win consistently across this very diverse state to put him over the top.

    All that is doable. But it’s difficult, and there’s little room for error. It is very plausible that Trump will end up falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs—perhaps even quite a bit short.

As we write, ElectionBettingOdds.com puts the likelihood (based on bookmakers’ odds) of a “brokered convention”—i.e., of Trump’s coming up short—at 66.4%, or just under 2 in 3. The likelihood of Trump’s winning the nomination is 50.1%. Subtract the latter percentage from the former, and the betting markets reckon there’s 1 in 6 or better chance of Trump’s winning a brokered convention.

We’re with FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver in thinking that makes little sense:

    If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot, he’s probably [at an impossible disadvantage]. The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump. . . .

    In most states, the process to select . . . delegates is separate from presidential balloting. In Massachusetts, for instance, Trump won 49 percent of the GOP vote on March 1—his highest share in any state to date—to earn 22 of the state’s 42 delegates. But the people who will serve as delegates haven’t been chosen yet. That will happen at a series of congressional district conventions later this month and then a Republican state meeting in May or June. According to Politico, most of those delegates are liable to favor Ted Cruz or John Kasich rather than Trump. Twenty-two of them will still be bound to Trump on the first ballot, but they can switch after that. The same story holds in a lot of other states: in Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina, for instance—also states that Trump won.

    Trump’s delegate problems stem from two major issues. One is his lack of organization: Trump just recently hired a strategist to oversee his delegate-selection efforts; Cruz has been working on the process for months. The other is his lack of support from “party elites.” The people who attend state caucuses and conventions are mostly dyed-in-the-wool Republican regulars and insiders, a group that is vigorously opposed to Trump. Furthermore, some delegate slots are automatically given to party leaders and elected officials, another group that strongly opposes Trump, as evident in his lack of endorsements among them.

While it’s possible Kasich or another candidate could emerge victorious on a second or later ballot, Cruz would be at a decided advantage by virtue of having both won multiple primaries and worked the delegate-selection process assiduously.

The Trump camp’s answer to the prospect of losing at a contested convention has been bluster about violence and intimidation. Trump himself last month spoke of “riots” if he was denied the nomination, though he later equivocated. Now Politico reports Trump trickster Roger Stone “is threatening to make public the hotel room numbers of Republican National Convention delegates who switch from Trump to another candidate”:

    “We’re going to have protests, demonstrations. We will disclose the hotels and the room numbers of those delegates who are directly involved in the steal,” Stone said Monday in a discussion with Stefan Molyneux on Freedomain Radio, as he alleged that Trump’s opponents planned to deny the democratic will of Republican primary voters.

    “If you’re from Pennsylvania, we’ll tell you who the culprits are. We urge you to visit their hotel and find them. You have a right to discuss this, if you voted in the Pennsylvania primary, for example, and your votes are being disallowed,” Stone said.

Most Pennsylvania delegates, incidentally, arrive at the convention unbound. At any rate, this sounds like an empty threat, and one that would likely backfire even if carried out.

The last time he faced the prospect of venturing into hostile territory—when his rally in Chicago was overrun by left-wing disruptors—he ended up bugging out. If he fails to secure a majority of delegates, perhaps rather than endure defeat in Cleveland he will find a way to withdraw ungraciously before the convention.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 06, 2016, 01:30:49 PM
Seems like New Yorkers , being NYers, are giving Cruz the proverbial finger for his comments about "NY values" in one of the debates.

Trump is way ahead and Kasich is second.

NY like California is a pain in the ass.
Title: Hillary then and now
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 06, 2016, 03:38:22 PM
https://www.facebook.com/americanbikers/videos/981831301906040/
Title: Goldberg on contested conventions
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 06, 2016, 03:42:30 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/433729/delegate-power-legitimate
Title: Newt comments
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 06, 2016, 04:49:29 PM
third post

Cruz, Sanders, and the Road After Wisconsin
Originally published at the Washington Times

Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders both had very big wins on Tuesday in Wisconsin.

Cruz had the bigger victory. He won more delegates and, in a three-way race, by as big a margin as Sanders did in a two-way race.
The campaign season is weakening the frontrunners in both parties at a time when the favorites should be consolidating their support.

A large number of Republicans say they would not vote for Trump.

A large number of Sanders supporters say they would not vote for Clinton.

The Wisconsin victory will help both insurgents, Cruz and Sanders, raise more money.

In Sanders’s case, he is already out-raising Clinton and this victory will translate into even more online donors sending even more money. The internet is allowing non-establishment candidates to gather resources even if the major donors refuse to help them. Without the stream of $27 donations pouring in over the internet, Sanders could never have sustained his effort to defeat Clinton.

Wisconsin fatally undermined John Kasich as the alternative to Cruz to stop Trump. Kasich did not win a single delegate in an upper-midwest state which should have been tailor made for the Governor of Ohio.

The news media will increasingly ignore Kasich. His donors will dry up. He can stubbornly continue the fight (as I did for a good while in 2012), but he can't fight his way back into contention.

Cruz and Trump each face big challenges.

Cruz has a great technical campaign with solid professionals who have been building grassroots operations in every state. He is winning the guerrilla war to elect delegates pledged to Trump but loyal to Cruz for all procedural fights and for any votes after the first ballot at the convention.

If Trump can't win decisively before Cleveland, it is likely that Cruz will become the nominee on the second or third ballot.

Trump has to confront the crisis of what has up to now been a remarkable campaign. Reagan faced a similar crisis after he lost Iowa to Bush in 1980. There was a profound shakeup in the campaign as Nancy insisted that they needed a bigger, better team. Without that change, Reagan would not have won the nomination.

Trump's style has made him the frontrunner. It will now stop him from becoming the nominee if he is not able to grow and expand on his achievement.
Trump's very frugal focus on rallies, social media and television have carried him far. But they have also left him unprepared for the much more complex battle at the delegate level.

The New York primary will be an important test for both Trump and Cruz.

Trump has to win a big enough victory to clearly establish a path to 1,237 delegates. That means sweeping or almost sweeping New York.
Trump also has to move toward being more presidential and give several substantive speeches that are as strong his AIPAC speech.
Finally, Trump has to build on the convention organizing talent of his recent hire, Paul Manafort, and develop a grassroots delegate operation that can compete with Cruz.

Cruz has to target key New York districts and try to actually win them. Particularly in some of the overwhelmingly Democratic districts in New York City, he may be able to target the very small number of Republicans effectively. Every delegate Cruz could win in New York would be a blow Trump’s effort to regain momentum.

Cruz has to continue the intensely focused and organized grassroots delegate hunt that is currently serving him well in setting the stage for a shocking upset on the second or third ballot for the nomination if Trump can’t get to 1,237 before then.

Finally, Cruz has to gather up money and endorsements from the establishment wing of the party without becoming the “establishment” candidate himself. If voters think the establishment is coming to Cruz, he will be ok. If they think Cruz is moving toward the establishment, it could ruin his campaign.
One last prediction on the Republican side: the Republican nominee will be named Donald or Ted. No one else will emerge. The rules imposed by the Romney team were designed to create absolute control of the convention. They will now block the emergence of a new candidate.

For the convention to nominate a candidate, he or she must have earned majorities of the delegates from at least eight states before the first ballot. No one other than Trump and Cruz will have done that, and there is no provision to enter new names for nomination later on.

All the folks who are talking about changing the rules simply don't know what they are talking about.

The Rules Committee could propose changes, but they would have to go to the floor of the convention to be voted on by the delegates. More than 80 percent of the delegates will be for either Trump or Cruz. Why would Trump and Cruz agree to change the rules to encourage a new candidate?

Changing the rules to the disadvantage of both contestants is an absurd idea. It simply won't happen.

Your Friend,
Newt
Title: oh no
Post by: ccp on April 09, 2016, 05:44:20 PM
Say it ain't so Mark.  Why just the other day he was saying he would vote for Trump over Hillary.  This is the problem with Trump .  You/me can be for him until he finally insults YOU/ME. 

Not helpful:

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/04/08/levin-i-am-not-voting-for-donald-trump-count-me-as-never-trump/
Title: Roger Stone
Post by: ccp on April 09, 2016, 05:46:31 PM
I posted this a couple of months back.  It is long and verbose but it is an interesting read on a character that as far as I know is unique and for some reason in the airwaves more than usual this election.   From an account written by none other then Jeff Tobin in 2008:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/06/02/the-dirty-trickster
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 12, 2016, 09:02:52 AM
ccp:  PS:  Trump "floats" Rubio for VP  ;   Marco back in the game?   shocked
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/11/trump-floats-rubio-kasich-walker-vice-president-picks/


Rubio holds a good number of delegates and some influence.  He was (supposedly) everyone's choice for VP last time and everyone's second choice earlier in this cycle.

Trump is trying to soften up the attacks he made on all the others.  Good luck with that - should have thought of that then during his burn bridges campaign. 

Not a great analogy, but I think of Dole and Kemp.  Kemp was a lousy VP candidate because Dole wouldn't have ever been his choice for President.  You have to believe in what you are selling.  I doubt Rubio would sign with Trump, but I've been wrong on everything else so far.

We'll see how this plays out.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 12, 2016, 09:32:45 AM
I was shocked when I read the headlines that Trump admitted the posting of Heidi Cruz's picture was a mistake and he shouldn't have done it.

As far as I am familiar with him that is a first.  One small step for man........ :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 12, 2016, 11:48:39 AM
I was shocked when I read the headlines that Trump admitted the posting of Heidi Cruz's picture was a mistake and he shouldn't have done it.

As far as I am familiar with him that is a first.  One small step for man........ :lol:

Yet they won't admit that their guy acusing Cruz's delegate operation in Colo of "Gestapo tactics" was a mistake.

Gestapo, really?? it isn't Cruz who wants to combine the executive and judiciary into one, that favors a national police force, he doesn't support the power to imprison people without judicial proceedings. Thousands of political prisoners didn't 'disappear under his watch, Cruz hasn't sought to suppress any churches or religions, and he hasn't committed any arrests, torture or executions.

As usual, Trump has it exactly backwards.  Cruz supports all the freedoms that, if protected, would prevent us from ever having a national police force develop into a Gestapo like force.

Prescient were the Founders who in the 1700s saw the danger that emerged in 1930s Germany and vowed that the government would never become a stronger force than the people.

Meanwhile, what happened in Colorado.  They passed the rules, published the rules, followed the rules, elected delegates and sore loser lost.  Big deal.  Trump might have been involved earlier in the process if he hadn't been a Democrat when the rules were made or if he could even find Colorado on a map.

Interesting that his kids who are 100% behind him politically don't happen to be Republicans either, and can't vote for him in the NY primary.  That also tells me Trump might score 10 points lower in NY than the polls indicate.  Still a win but not a sweep.
Title: 2016 Presidential, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders Are Delusional on Trade Policy
Post by: DougMacG on April 12, 2016, 02:58:32 PM
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/11/donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders-are-delusional-on-trade-policy.html

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Are Delusional on Trade Policy
We import so many parts—and parts of parts—that tariffs and protectionism will only kill jobs and hike prices.
---------------------------

This issue alone tells me Trump and obviously Sanders don't understand free market economics.

It also blows his analogy to Reagan who had a long held ambition to have a hemisphere wide free trade zone.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Drudge vs. Cruz
Post by: DougMacG on April 13, 2016, 07:10:57 AM
I heard about the Drudge vs Cruz war so I went to the Drudge Report and picked up a couple of juicy headlines designed to make Cruz look bad.

Backtracking here, I know a little about Drudge's politics because he used to have a radio talk show that played here on Sunday nights.  Not heavily promoted or listened to but pretty good content.  I noticed he was from the anti-free trade wing of the Republican party or conservative movement, called protectionism, populism(?), he tended to like Pat Buchanan for example.  That particular stand doesn't make it with me though we probably agree on other issues.  I bring this up because it explains why an otherwise intelligent guy might support Trump.  (

Lead headlines on the Drudge Report last night (and this morning) were these:

VIDEO: COLORADO 'ELECTION DAY' REVEALED...
'Delegates were decided, 10 seconds at a time'...
WAIT! WHAT?
Trump calls process 'a disgrace'...
Cruz email asks for $35 to be 'top deputy delegate'...


Let's start with the video that I suppose at this point would show us cheating or Gestapo tactics at the GOP convention in Colorado.  Yes, 600+ people running for national delegate were given 10 seconds each on the stage.  Yes, that's kind of a joke but way more open than most; everyone getting an equal shot, winners of the real vote count take all.

The second headline is false.  If that 10 seconds is what you were using to make your decision or to run your 'campaign' for national delegate, you either are the joke or are missing the punchline.  Everyone had the same shot to organize and win.  The winners were the top vote getters; hte way they ran the headline you might think money was changing hands or something else nefarious.  Not so.

Serious campaigns organize AHEAD OF TIME.  And they have what they call a slate of candidates and a bullet ballot (can you still call it that?).  So if you are with Cruz and want to be a delegate and sweep the convention, you get on a slate of candidates where everyone on it and more agree to vote the whole ballot.  The CNN video didn't know that or show that and Trump got blindsided because he's never been to one of these and he hired someone to manage these conventions AFTER this happened in Colorado.

The rules were set last August.  How is this unfair or someone else's fault?

Moving on to the second story, 4th headline:

Cruz email asks for $35 to be 'top deputy delegate'...

It looks like a crime commmited, bribery exposed.  Turns out he has a donation solicitation naming the contributor level no worse than NPR would.  Maybe you can be at the "Patron" level or the "ambassador" level.  In this case $35 to Cruz, from your home, puts you at the "top deputy delegate" level.  Was there one person out there that thought this money would give them a seat in the convention hall in Cleveland closer to the stage than their living room?

Too bad.  Because of Trump and his desperate followers, the conservative side is dividing and imploding.

We saw it here first when we learned from Pat that people and places like National Review, Townhall, WSJ, Glenn Beck, Thomas Sowell, Hot Air, Powerline, and many more were all too liberal, the "establishment", and part of a conspiracy to keep Trump out.  He was always able to bring us a Trump source or Trump poll that uniquely told the truth where the others were all telling us wrong.

Does it ever happen in politics that someone else merely holds a different view than you?  Or got more votes than you, as Cruz did over Trump in Colorado?  Or does it always have to be a scandal when your guy gets his clock cleaned?  

I wasted my time following the Drudge leads above and where there was smoke, there was no fire.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on April 13, 2016, 08:00:26 AM
Frankly, at this point the republican party needs to burn.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 13, 2016, 08:46:11 AM
Frankly, at this point the republican party needs to burn.

Already in process.  8 years of Obama and 8 years of Hillary-Castro because George Bush and John Boehner governed like Democrats.

We can replace the failing big tent party with a number of smaller, warring faction parties, the protectionist party, the government takings party, the RINO party, the big spending big government conservative party, the let the rest of the world burn party, and the anarchy party.

I like your earlier Ted Cruz or bust post better!

I was thinking this morning about past posts made on The Way Forward thread and how everything we were calling for didn't happen. 

We needed to get straight and clear and unified on issues, instead it is all chaos and confusion.  We needed to be able to communicate well and pull peole to our side of issues and instead it is moving in the other direction.  And we needed to pick someone to represent our views who will reach into the enemy camp and pull a few people over to our side, and instead we are choosing only those who are the most divisive.

Ted Cruz has all kinds of great views on issues and through all the noise I haven't heard a word of it in weeks if not months.

The next election is still 7 months out and yet we already feel helpless and hopeless.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on April 13, 2016, 09:27:19 AM
My assessment is that there is no hope until the reboot. This country, or what's left of it has to hit bottom before recovery.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 13, 2016, 10:07:18 AM
My assessment is that there is no hope until the reboot. This country, or what's left of it has to hit bottom before recovery.

Pessimism continued, I don't think we will be any smarter after hitting rock bottom.  We will learn all the wrong lessons.  The metaphor fails, but I think it's only downhill from there.

I would still like to see Cruz or someone steal this nomination and start running with a real vision.  Call out socialism for what it is and lay out in detail what needs to be done.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on April 14, 2016, 05:34:11 AM
My assessment is that there is no hope until the reboot. This country, or what's left of it has to hit bottom before recovery.

Pessimism continued, I don't think we will be any smarter after hitting rock bottom.  We will learn all the wrong lessons.  The metaphor fails, but I think it's only downhill from there.

I would still like to see Cruz or someone steal this nomination and start running with a real vision.  Call out socialism for what it is and lay out in detail what needs to be done.

Until the Bernie dummies learn firsthand real poverty, they won't listen.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Nate Silver
Post by: DougMacG on April 14, 2016, 03:41:05 PM
Nate Silver:  Trump finishes 82 delegates short.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-state-by-state-roadmap-for-the-rest-of-the-republican-primary/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Cruz is taking Nebraska
Post by: DougMacG on April 14, 2016, 03:58:57 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/14/ted-cruz-picks-nebraska-delegates-no-show-donald-trump/
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
 can add Nebraska to his list of states where he’s out organized GOP frontrunner Donald Trump in collecting delegates.


Trump is hiring local help a and trying to organize after it's too late.  Is that how he will handle foreign and economic policy too?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Cruz is taking Nebraska
Post by: G M on April 14, 2016, 04:51:31 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/14/ted-cruz-picks-nebraska-delegates-no-show-donald-trump/
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
 can add Nebraska to his list of states where he’s out organized GOP frontrunner Donald Trump in collecting delegates.


Trump is hiring local help a and trying to organize after it's too late.  Is that how he will handle foreign and economic policy too?

Yes.
Title: Larry Elder
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 19, 2016, 11:12:15 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNda7aBI3Co&feature=youtu.be
Title: From Rush : depressing assessment
Post by: ccp on April 20, 2016, 08:21:18 AM
this sounds right. 

http://nation.foxnews.com/2016/04/19/rush-gop-establishment-getting-ready-vote-hillary
Title: Cruz and Kasich coordinating
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 24, 2016, 11:29:20 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html?emc=edit_na_20160425&nlid=49641193&ref=cta&_r=0
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 25, 2016, 07:24:45 AM
Our side never ceases to give the left ammunition.   I dunno.  So what if we keep a database of muslims.  The government has no problem keeping databases of my religion race and back ground.  Does anyone think they don't already keep a database of far right groups.  Nazi Germany my ass.  And I am tired of hearing about Koch.  He can take his money and shove it.  He wants Trump to come to HIM and deal.  With his 'threats' that he may support Hillary. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/charles-koch-trump-nazi_us_571cd383e4b0d4d3f7239eaf
Title: Re: Cruz and Kasich coordinating
Post by: DougMacG on April 25, 2016, 10:57:22 AM
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/25/us/politics/ted-cruz-john-kasich-donald-trump.html?emc=edit_na_20160425&nlid=49641193&ref=cta&_r=0

This will probably backfire(?).  Could help Cruz in Indiana.  Splitting up California will be difficult to pull off.
Title: Mattis
Post by: G M on April 26, 2016, 08:15:13 AM
http://weaponsman.com/?p=31360

This country really wouldn't deserve him. Not anymore.
Title: Re: Mattis
Post by: DDF on April 26, 2016, 09:01:56 AM
http://weaponsman.com/?p=31360

This country really wouldn't deserve him. Not anymore.

I was thinking about it, and if I was charged with protecting any of the current candidates, I think I'd spit out my coffee at the idea of it.

Bernie - The Socialist
Clinton - The criminal, America hating hag
Trump - The Manhattan Realtor (saleperson - you know the type)
Kasich - If ever someone had RINO written all over him
Cruz - The Canadian.... and he is.

I hope God knows what HE is doing in all of this. The worst part is a large swath of America are perfectly fine endorsing a criminal or a socialist that's never earned his own paycheck. What does one do with that?
Title: Re: Mattis
Post by: DougMacG on April 26, 2016, 09:11:41 AM
http://weaponsman.com/?p=31360

This country really wouldn't deserve him. Not anymore.

I was thinking about it, and if I was charged with protecting any of the current candidates, I think I'd spit out my coffee at the idea of it.

Bernie - The Socialist
Clinton - The criminal, America hating hag
Trump - The Manhattan Realtor (saleperson - you know the type)
Kasich - If ever someone had RINO written all over him
Cruz - The Canadian.... and he is.

I hope God knows what HE is doing in all of this. The worst part is a large swath of America are perfectly fine endorsing a criminal or a socialist that's never earned his own paycheck. What does one do with that?

You don't get anywhere in politics by blaming the voters, ... but I blame the voters.

I would write a different description of Cruz, the rest is spot-on from my point of view.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 26, 2016, 10:58:08 AM
Didn't Menken say something about the people deserving the government they voted for , , , in spades?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on April 26, 2016, 07:08:28 PM
Didn't Menken say something about the people deserving the government they voted for , , , in spades?
Indeed....


And I agree also Doug.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 27, 2016, 08:33:55 AM
Didn't Menken say something about the people deserving the government they voted for , , , in spades?

If all the laws applied to all the people equally, if we chose tax rates, tax burdens, rules and regulations same for all, voting would require discipline.  When 51% can vote for rules that apply to the other 49% and benefit only them, like the so-called rob Peter to pay Paul, .

Imagine if we had founded our country under principles like limited government and equal protection under the law with individual rights that the congress and the executive shall not infringe on, none of which could ever be violated without the approval of massive super-majorities of the people and of the states ...   oh, skip it, and make sure you file your new 1095.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 27, 2016, 08:49:27 AM
Really weak numbers for Cruz yesterday and strong ones for Drumpf.  Yes Drumpf was expected to win, but averaging nearly 60% is strong, no way about it.  I'm smelling momentum building for Trump that will get him the nod on the first ballot.

Fuck you very much John Kasich.
Title: Up yours Koch
Post by: ccp on April 27, 2016, 12:39:00 PM
MY post of April 25:

*Our side never ceases to give the left ammunition.   I dunno.  So what if we keep a database of muslims.  The government has no problem keeping databases of my religion race and back ground.  Does anyone think they don't already keep a database of far right groups.  Nazi Germany my ass.  And I am tired of hearing about Koch.  He can take his money and shove it.  He wants Trump to come to HIM and deal.  With his 'threats' that he may support Hillary. *

And today from Brieibart Trump's response to Koch.  Trump's response to Koch is right on the mark!  I couldn't agree more on this point:

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/27/donald-trump-charles-koch-dont-need/
Title: The Empress Dowager vs. Trump on Muslim immigration
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 28, 2016, 06:14:24 AM
https://www.facebook.com/TGNetworknews/videos/509880665885480/
Title: Stratfor on the US Election
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 28, 2016, 06:30:26 AM
second post

By Rodger Baker

Stratfor strives to provide impartial geopolitical analysis and forecasts that identify critical trends in global and regional affairs, explaining the world's complexities in a simple but not simplistic manner. Through the years we have always sought to adhere to these core underlying principles, with mixed success. Remaining "unbiased" in part means staying out of politics, avoiding policy prescriptions (or proscriptions), and addressing issues not from a good/bad or right/wrong approach but rather from a view of effective/ineffective. It means at times stepping away from the emotions of issues, examining deeper compulsions and constraints, and observing how leaders and global actors modify their behavior based on the shifting circumstances in which they find themselves.

It is a difficult endeavor and one that draws various accusations from our readers. We are accused of seeing the world through Cold Warrior lenses, of not caring about human rights and human dignity, of promoting some form of old-school realpolitik. At times, this underpinning philosophy draws equal accusations of being liberal shills, of being too centered on the United States, and of justifying the behavior of dictatorial or repressive regimes. At our best, we garner equal quantities of impassioned responses from all sides of an issue. Criticism is not something we shy from, particularly if our mandate is to ease back the curtains of perception and reveal, as best as possible, the underlying realities of a very complex world system.

For a company accused of being too focused on the United States, we also often receive criticism from our readers for failing to write enough about it. It has been noted more than once that we largely steer clear of covering U.S. politics or even presidential elections. In the grand scheme of geopolitics, over time the role of individuals is largely washed out — to be overly simplistic, the individuals rarely matter. This is, of course, not true, but it is a way to look beyond the subjective desires of leaders and instead to examine the objective realities they face, the circumstances that shape and constrain their options, the structure of the system in which they work, and the upbringing and background that color the way they see and interpret information and make decisions.

In some ways one could argue that, on a broad global scale, the difference in individual presidents, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama to whoever succeeds him, has only minimal implications. Bush did not enter the White House with the intent to invade Afghanistan (it is highly unlikely that any U.S. president could conceive of a worse place for a maritime power to find itself). Obama did not enter the White House intending to be engaged in a conflict in Syria. One could perhaps argue that Franklin Roosevelt did intend to enter the war in Europe. But his initial comments, along with those of Woodrow Wilson ahead of U.S. involvement in World War I, gave little sense that this was the direction in which he was headed. Wilson sought to focus on domestic political issues; Roosevelt led an increasingly isolationist nation. World events placed stark choices before them. Bush had September 11. The Syrian civil war, the overall fight against terrorism and the rebalancing of the Middle East placed Syria on Obama's agenda, despite his grand proclamations of a Pacific pivot, which even at the end of his presidency looks a whole lot more modest than envisioned.

Geopolitics can help us understand the implications and pressures on different states, and the way those may limit or compel certain responses. But geopolitics is predictive of broad trends, not of final decisions. We strongly reject the idea of geopolitical determinism, but we also reject the idea that politics is somehow so fundamentally different from other fields that the human agent is supreme. Few completely reject Adam Smith's assertion of an invisible hand in economics; we argue that geopolitics helps us identify elements of a hidden hand in international politics. The narrower the time frame, the more discrete the geography and the more immediate the decision, the less geopolitics explains. But there are other analytical and collection tools to help account for that. Given our broad mandate to use geopolitics to explain the flow of the world system, rather than looking at individuals as unrestrained decision-makers, we seek to understand the circumstances and environment in which they operate. We don't call elections, but we do seek to identify the forces that shape the processes and the realities that will face the officials who rise to power, through whatever means.
Bias, Intentional or Otherwise

So more immediately, we are asked why we do not address the current U.S. presidential election. The first answer is that the contest is not yet at the election stage. We are watching the intraparty competition play out on the way to the nomination. This is politics at its most basic level: a component of a geopolitical approach, but only a component. Perhaps there is room at this stage to read from the primaries some of the broader undercurrents shaping society that will continue to play a role once a president is elected. But frankly, the market is saturated with assessments of the minutiae of day-to-day campaigning. If we are to help our readers understand the world system, there is only so much that we could add to that daily flow of information, assertions and assessments of the current campaigners — and little at this stage yet rises to broader significance.

Perhaps more directly, we do not cover the U.S. election at the same day-to-day depth as the general news media or political commentators not only because we are not political commentators but also because, for the most part, our staff lives in the United States. And this is where the risk of bias materializes. We are designed to be a neutral, nonpartisan service. On U.S. politics (as opposed to policy), it is hard to maintain that nonpartisan approach. Just by living here, we have a stake in the outcome of the analysis that could taint our perceptions. This is not insurmountable — one does not avoid bias by denying its existence but rather by recognizing openly and honestly what that bias is.

Bias is not always intentional. Intentional bias is the easiest to overcome, since it is the most obvious. On the other hand, subconscious bias requires more intense searching to discover. Bias is a natural result of numerous factors: Upbringing, family life, personal experiences, faith, education, friends and location all shape the individual and the way the individual sees things. We often argue here that one piece of information in five hands is of greater value than five pieces of information in one hand, thanks to the variety of perspectives that can be brought to bear. This is why Stratfor's analytical staff is multinational in composition. Techniques such as acknowledging and identifying bias, using alternative viewpoints in the analytical process, and clearly laying out assumptions as differentiated from facts all serve to help overcome bias. Perhaps the best individuals we could use to cover the U.S. election, then, would be foreign nationals living abroad, able to observe the process through less invested eyes.
A Dispassionate View

If we were to apply our process to the U.S. election, as divested of outcome and involvement as we are with other countries, it would perhaps be jarring to our U.S. readership (and perhaps our foreign readership as well). We would discuss the struggles within the opposition conservative party. With no viable centrist candidate, it is instead torn between a strong right-wing fringe candidate with a reputation among his own party in Congress for being uncooperative and an outsider businessman/media star who has openly donated to both parties in years past and who favors provocative statements (perhaps even intentionally provocative, given his extensive media experience). We would talk about the clashes within the ruling liberal party between an establishment candidate, the spouse of a former president and potentially the first woman to assume the U.S. presidency, and an avowed socialist who, despite his age, has drawn heavily on youth support.

We would look at a nation that is still recovering from a massive economic downturn, one that rocked the world. A country where the financial institutions that contributed to the crisis not only appear to have avoided punishment but also are once again thriving, exacerbating the gap between the status of economic recovery overall and the public's perception of economic stability. It is a country that, not necessarily seeing a strong economic recovery for the middle class or blue-collar labor, is now turning against immigration (once again — this has been a fairly typical cycle since nearly the nation's foundation).

It is a country that has been heavily engaged in overseas conflict for well over a decade, where support for the seemingly interminable, distant war is flagging. A country not only facing an imprecisely defined opponent (is terrorism a thing, an ideology or a group of people?) but also seeing the resurgence of peer rivals (Russia and perhaps China). It is a country dealing with a fracturing Europe, long the center of a global alliance structure. A country coming to grips with the unrequested, but no less real, shift of the global center of gravity from the North Atlantic to the North American continent. It is a country that appears to have a global responsibility but that, after years of extensive involvement, has come to question that duty.

It is a country with a changing population that, like those in Japan, South Korea and even China, is grappling with the changed significance of a college education. Meanwhile, a large segment of the population is soon heading for retirement. It is a country undergoing a new round of internal debates over just what social justice means in the "American" context; each expansion in the concepts of freedom and personal rights is considered by some as advancement and by others as further deviation from a known "ideal." It is a country that, consistent with its relative security, has the leisure to debate morality but also to question whether equality and individual freedom are achievable or even desirable at their extremes.

In short, it is a country that, on the largest scale, is now emerging as the center of the global system. On a narrower scale, it is a country ending a cycle of heavy international military engagement and shifting back toward, if not isolationism, at least the pursuit of (or reliance on) a balance-of-power strategy to manage the world system without policing it. It is a country that is coming out of a major economic crisis and seeing its labor market change with shifting technology. Although the shifts have led to new business methods and economic activity, they have also brought job losses in some sectors. It is a country that, like many other places in the world, is struggling with national identity at a time when globalization appears relevant and desirable.

What we see, then, is not yet the U.S. election, but instead the stage for that election. The process is less about the candidates than about the system that has allowed these individuals, as opposed to others, to rise to prominence. We see not Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders, or even John Kasich. Instead, we see the way these individuals — the systems in which they operate and the undercurrents of society — lead to this broader debate on a national level. What any of them will do as president will be a much different story. We can see the space into which they will emerge and how that might constrain their options. But a president does not exist in a vacuum. There is a Cabinet, a Congress, the courts, a society and the international system. It is not that the individual doesn't matter but rather that the individual will exist in a space that he or she largely does not control. Looking at the candidates, then, if we were to get partisan at all, it would be to find the ones most able to adapt and to act in a rapidly changing environment.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 28, 2016, 04:11:47 PM
I am thinking Trump will win in November against Hillary.   :|

Title: No win scenario
Post by: G M on April 30, 2016, 06:31:38 AM
(http://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2016/04/Kirk-2016-copy.jpg)

http://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2016/04/Kirk-2016-copy.jpg
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 30, 2016, 09:01:35 AM
GM,
Pretty good article in this month's Scientific American on the production of Star Trek.  I cannot seem to find it now to post.
Did you know that the studio that finally accepted and wanted to do the series was Desilu?  Lucille Ball was a big backer of the series that no one else wanted.  It was after her divorce with Desi.

Roddneberry thought about having a female second in command but in those days having a female command a 22 century space ship was too dangerous and controversial.  Now it would be the opposite. 

There was a lot of power feuding between Nimoy and Shatner.  Nimoy actually became more popular that Shatner and the latter hated it.  They fought the first season or two over who would get to read crucial lines.

The show lost money but because it went into 60+ countries and became one of the biggest syndicated show, as well as a franchise that if it went just another 6 months cash would have been rolling in.  Instead it was cancelled after only 3 seasons.

The evolution of the transporter came about by  the fact that it was cheaper than trying to film a ship or craft landing on the surface of the planet, and of got characters to where you wanted them in a hurry saving time and boredom.

Part of the reason so many aliens were simply variations of humans was because it was cheaper.

I generally liked Star Trek but didn't love it.  I actually liked Lost in Space more.  Dr Smith used to crack me up.  Plus I had a crush on Angela Cartwright (Penny).

The brother of a childhood friend of mine had a one line cameo in the first Star Trek movie.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on April 30, 2016, 09:37:45 AM
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-1qas-CL14[/youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-1qas-CL14


My favorite take on sci fi fandom.

Yes, this is off topic, but gotta distract from the nightmare of this election.
Title: One of my favorite movies is
Post by: ccp on April 30, 2016, 10:19:26 AM
'Revenge of the Nerds'

From this site, I like the pick up line, "you make my software into hardware":

https://www.quora.com/What-do-women-think-of-men-who-are-nerds-or-geeks

I know off topic.  :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, post mortem
Post by: DougMacG on May 04, 2016, 08:05:04 AM
We are left with Trump and Clinton and the rest of our short lives to contemplate what went wrong when America was at the tipping point.

Proven wrong by the electorate, I still stand by most of what I said before this started, and have learned almost nothing from the ordeal.

1.  Hillary: shouldn't have run - for all the reasons stated early and often.  But there was no credible Dem alternative.
2.  Bernie: over-performed.  He never had a chance and yet stole the youth vote, moved HRC to the left and nearly took it.
3.  Trump: is Trump.  What is his appeal and how could he have been countered?  These are the mysteries for the ages.  He should have been countered and dismissed, two contradicting strategies, and someone else more thoughtful and qualified needed to match his charisma and excitement, which I don't see so I can't answer.
4.  Cruz: over-performed too.  He has never had to win over the center.  He didn't start with Presidential level charisma.  He never brought people to his side during the fights in the Senate.  He won the niche he entered and took it further than anyone could have expected.
5.  Rubio:  This one hurts.  He started with the best chance to make a new game of this.  Pretty much everyone agrees he has amazing talent.  He won the early debates but never turned it into a movement.  He lacks accomplishments and fell a little short.  The crowded field and the stumble in NH cost him valuable momentum.  Where he almost won Virginia, he needed a win.  The Florida loss was fatal.  In the crucial debate, he needed to recognize his adversary was a prosecutor on a suicide bombing mission aimed at taking take him out and shift gears quickly on the fly.  He didn't.  I never liked his campaign slogan, A New American Century.  Too vague, too packaged, too much like a Clinton or Obama campaign - although those were two, two-term Presidents.  Had flaws in his abortion approach and in his tax plan.  He never touted his main strengths, the ability to reach people outside of the far right or to tout that he was polling best in the general election.  He never fully confronted or overcame his weaknesses, gang of 8 in particular, and no Eisenhower-like accomplishments.  Rubio was hated by the far right.  That doesn't work.  Polling well with moderates just made that distaste stronger.  He should have never let his support for that immigration 'solution' go that far.  His support should have been qualified and his podium appearances with the enemy avoided.  Can't walk that back now.
6.  Others.  Start with the two-term Governors.  How come Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) never ran?  Scott Walker:  Was not fully ready for national issues and the first debate.  Was not funded for the long haul.  Still young.  Bobby Jindal.  Smart but didn't connect.  Had popularity problems at home right while the campaign was heating up.  Christie: Thank God he didn't win.  Jeb:  Had a lot going against him and then under-performed.  Shouldn't have entered the race without being ready to light up the stage.  Rick Perry:  Never overcame the false start of the previous cycle.  He should have had a line ready for when he forgets his lines. He never was ready for the national stage.  Outsiders, Fiorina and Carson: did better than expected, but took wind out of others' sails while doing so.  Santorum, Huckabee:  Their time had passed, they split the conservative vote further, shouldn't have entered.  When you see the miserable list of mere mortals who have won the nomination and won the Presidency, it makes all these people think, why not me?  But why should it be you if you have nothing new to offer.
7. Lastly, Kasich.  Never had charisma, plugs that as a strength.  Became a RINO(?)  Still in?  

Out of all the what ifs, the only interesting one to me was what if Rubio had gained steam instead of stumbled?  Would that have been enough to carry Florida?  Probably not.  The fight between Cruz and Rubio was ugly and neither one had a knockout punch.  Cruz and Rubio would have fought each other to the end and handed the nomination to Trump.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 04, 2016, 08:27:16 AM
"He never fully confronted or overcame his weaknesses, gang of 8 in particular, and no Eisenhower-like accomplishments.  Rubio was hated by the far right."

In my opinion his stance on immigration is what did him in.  I recall Levin stating he did "great damage" to his credibility with his immigration cave in.  And it remains to be seen if he can repair that.  Not only did he never change his immigration stance he solidified it. 

I don't know if it is too late to be strong on immigration.  Yes I know close the borders blah blah blah.  But what about the 15 million who are here illegally?  And they will be working hard to bring in their relatives etc.  So we just say let bygones be bygones?  I know, win their hearts and minds with conservatism.  Yeah right.  They ain't going to leave their beloved Democrats using tax money to buy their votes or those of their kids if they can't vote.

That said I would have preferred him to Trump.  Having him is like playing Russian Roulette.  Sooner or later the gun will go off.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on May 04, 2016, 09:33:42 AM
"I don't know if it is too late to be strong on immigration. "

I know what my answer is...  It's never too late and if you're letting someone tell you it is, those people need to go. Just the way it is. Oddly, you never hear these types of things happening in other more colourful countries, because they'll kill you or deport you....take your pick. The US should be no different.


"Having him is like playing Russian Roulette.  Sooner or later the gun will go off. "

I'm ok with that.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 04, 2016, 09:41:40 AM
DDF you make my point. 

Not that I disagree with you.

Immigration is very important to you and me.  It was a big reason to be on Trump's side.  But for me it is not an issue that makes it all or none for the Presidency for me.
I don't want the whole ship to go down because of it.  Too many other important things at stake.  I Trump personality is a big issue I cannot ignore or approve of.

I am not willing to play Russian Roulette with the future of this great country.  At this point in my view is to support Trump and HELP him do all the right things, as much as we can and as much as he will let us.  Many who know states he does listen........

Title: What is coming
Post by: G M on May 05, 2016, 11:46:52 AM
https://politicallyshort.com/2016/05/03/americas-last-election/

8 months.
Title: Re: What is coming
Post by: DDF on May 05, 2016, 12:51:32 PM
https://politicallyshort.com/2016/05/03/americas-last-election/

8 months.

With any luck, I'll be in Croatia, disarming mines. Wake me up when it's over.

Obama, Trump, Trump, Sanders....Clinton....


I look here, on this very forum, and see people so much more capable (and deserving) of the presidential nod..... and then, I realize, Mexico and other places aren't such bad places to be.

The problem isn't even Obama, Hilary (who I find particularly distasteful) or any one else..... it's the people that fervently support them. There is only ONE WAY to solve that....and that is that they have to go.... you cannot live with cancer; yet, we still attempt to, in the name of freedom.

Dude....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 05, 2016, 12:56:24 PM
"With any luck, I'll be in Croatia,"

Ah those Eastern European girls!

OTOH I was stunned when I was in Mexico on a singles cruise some decades back at how beautiful the Mexican seniorittas are!  I felt like a hot chilli pepper.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Elizabeth Warren rips Trump
Post by: DougMacG on May 09, 2016, 05:44:32 PM
Maybe you have to be a Dem to realize what a perfect story or phonyness all the way through that this is. Warren delays to endorse either Hillary or Bernie, then shuns Hillary to endorse Sanders after she starts to win, then goes back to Hillary with the street-cred to help bring Sanders voters to Hillary.  Now she auditions for the role of Veep by attacking Trump. 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/07/elizabeth-warren-going-on-trump-attack-for-dems.html

Add Newt or Rudy to the Trump ticket and we will have 4 people in their 70s fighting for the youth vote.

But only one Cherokee.
Title: If true, Putin can decide to throw election to Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 10, 2016, 08:42:02 AM
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2036.htm
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 10, 2016, 12:16:01 PM
Trump and the RNC should be on the airplane to see Putin this evening!

Would that be ironic.  The Hill who used the server to hide everything in the end gets screwed by its contents being made public.

How bout we swap Ukraine for San Fransisco?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 10, 2016, 01:17:33 PM
No way should Trump do ANYTHING that smacks of collusion.  As it is, some tongues are already wagging over his kind words for Putin, his apparent acceptance of the Russians in the Middle East, and his convention manager having worked for the former head of Ukraine now in exile in Moscow.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 10, 2016, 03:14:27 PM
second post

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 10, 2016, 03:30:42 PM
second post

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/LA-Presidential-Executive-Summary.pdf

So, Hillary in an Ooompa-Loompa costume beats Hillary?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 10, 2016, 04:19:21 PM
Kerry is on the airplane as well as Sid Blumenthal offering up Ukraine to the Reds.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 10, 2016, 09:25:16 PM
Kerry sold out America for less.
Title: Hillary supporters like Trump's tax plan
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 12, 2016, 10:30:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsxXty6vEBA
Title: Jim Webb endorses Trump!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 17, 2016, 03:56:40 PM
http://spartianlifestyle.com/2016/05/08/breaking-democrat-icon-jim-webb-endorses-donald-trump-over-hillary/
Title: People think backwards
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 23, 2016, 02:30:54 AM
Some of you may remember the ditty I developed during my 1992 Congressional run: "People think backwards.  They choose the position that makes the emotional statement they wish to make about who they are, then they learn the facts and reasons to justify it.  This is why people do not change their minds when confronted with superior knowledge of the facts and/or superior logic.

The following piece from Pravda on the Hudson makes quite a similar point:
=========================================================



Bernie Sanders is widely credited with pulling Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party to the left on major issues like health care, trade, financial regulation and the minimum wage. Now he says he will battle all the way to the convention on behalf of “people who are prepared to fight for real economic and social change.” But the premise animating that battle — that Mr. Sanders’s surprising success in the primary race is because of his liberal policy positions — may be familiar and comforting, but it is greatly exaggerated.

The notion that elections are decided by voters’ carefully weighing competing candidates’ stands on major issues reflects a strong faith in American political culture that citizens can control their government from the voting booth. We call it the “folk theory” of democracy.

When candidates surpass expectations, observers caught up in the folk theory believe that they have tapped some newly potent political issue or ideology. Thus, many analysts have argued that Mr. Sanders’s surprising support signals a momentous shift to the left among Democrats.

But wishing does not make it so. Decades of social-scientific evidence show that voting behavior is primarily a product of inherited partisan loyalties, social identities and symbolic attachments. Over time, engaged citizens may construct policy preferences and ideologies that rationalize their choices, but those issues are seldom fundamental.

That is one key reason contemporary American politics is so polarized: The electoral penalty for candidates taking extreme positions is quite modest because voters in the political center do not reliably support the candidates closest to them on the issues. (Mitt Romney is just the most recent presidential candidate to lose despite being perceived by most voters as closer to their ideological views than his opponent on a spectrum running from “extremely liberal” to “extremely conservative.”)

The most powerful social identities and symbolic attachments in this year’s Democratic race have favored Mrs. Clinton, not Mr. Sanders. She has been a leading figure in the Democratic Party for decades, a role model for many women and a longtime ally of African-Americans and other minority groups. For many primary voters, that history constitutes a powerful bond, and their loyalties are propelling Mrs. Clinton to the nomination despite her limitations as a candidate.

Mr. Sanders, on the other hand, is a sort of anti-Clinton — a political maverick from lily-white Vermont whose main claim to fame has been his insistence on calling himself an independent, a socialist, anything but a Democrat. That history has made him a convenient vessel for antipathy to Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic establishment and some of the party’s key constituencies. But it is a mistake to assume that voters who support Mr. Sanders because he is not Mrs. Clinton necessarily favor his left-leaning policy views.
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Exit polls conducted in two dozen primary and caucus states from early February through the end of April reveal only modest evidence of ideological structure in Democratic voting patterns, but ample evidence of the importance of group loyalties.

Mr. Sanders did just nine points better, on average, among liberals than he did among moderates. By comparison, he did 11 points worse among women than among men, 18 points worse among nonwhites than among whites and 28 points worse among those who identified as Democrats than among independents.

It is very hard to point to differences between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders’s proposed policies that could plausibly account for such substantial cleavages. They are reflections of social identities, symbolic commitments and partisan loyalties.

Yet commentators who have been ready and willing to attribute Donald Trump’s success to anger, authoritarianism, or racism rather than policy issues have taken little note of the extent to which Mr. Sanders’s support is concentrated not among liberal ideologues but among disaffected white men.

More detailed evidence casts further doubt on the notion that support for Mr. Sanders reflects a shift to the left in the policy preferences of Democrats. In a survey conducted for the American National Election Studies in late January, supporters of Mr. Sanders were more pessimistic than Mrs. Clinton’s supporters about “opportunity in America today for the average person to get ahead” and more likely to say that economic inequality had increased.

However, they were less likely than Mrs. Clinton’s supporters to favor concrete policies that Mr. Sanders has offered as remedies for these ills, including a higher minimum wage, increasing government spending on health care and an expansion of government services financed by higher taxes. It is quite a stretch to view these people as the vanguard of a new, social-democratic-trending Democratic Party.

Mr. Sanders has drawn enthusiastic support from young people, a common pattern for outsider candidates. But here, too, the impression of ideological commitment is mostly illusory. While young Democrats in the January survey were more likely than those over age 35 to call themselves liberals, their ideological self-designations seem to have been much more lightly held, varying significantly when they were reinterviewed.

Moreover, warm views of Mr. Sanders increased the liberalism of young Democrats by as much as 1.5 points on the seven-point ideological scale. For many of them, liberal ideology seems to have been a short-term byproduct of enthusiasm for Mr. Sanders rather than a stable political conviction.
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Perhaps for that reason, the generational difference in ideology seems not to have translated into more liberal positions on concrete policy issues — even on the specific issues championed by Mr. Sanders. For example, young Democrats were less likely than older Democrats to support increased government funding of health care, substantially less likely to favor a higher minimum wage and less likely to support expanding government services. Their distinctive liberalism is mostly a matter of adopting campaign labels, not policy preferences.

Abraham Lincoln promised Americans “government of the people, by the people, for the people,” a notable departure from the republican system set up by the architects of the Constitution. In the 150 years since Lincoln, the ideal of government “by the people” has reshaped Americans’ democratic aspirations and their political practices — for example, in the Progressive Era introductions of direct primary elections and referendums and initiatives. It has also altered the way journalists and analysts see and describe electoral politics.

But that ideal makes sense, descriptively and normatively, only if citizens understand politics in terms of issues and ideologies and use their votes to convey clear policy signals that then determine the course of public policy. Americans’ commitment to the folk theory of democracy may make them wish that elections worked that way. But in the case of Bernie Sanders, as so often, belief in the folk theory is an act of faith, not realism.
Title: POTH: Mexico freaking out over Trump, begins to interfere with US election
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 23, 2016, 02:36:03 AM
second post

MEXICO CITY — Vicente Fox, the former president of Mexico, was recently stuck in Mexico City traffic, overcome with frustration — not by the congestion, but by something that was irritating him even more: Donald J. Trump. He grabbed his phone, turned the lens on himself and pressed record.

“Ha! Donald,” Mr. Fox said, holding the phone perhaps a little too close to his face. “What about your apologies to Mexico, to Mexicans in the United States, to Mexicans in Mexico?”

In short order, the 15-second clip was on Mr. Fox’s Twitter feed — another salvo in a personal campaign against the American presidential candidate that has included television appearances, radio interviews and a fusillade of hectoring Twitter posts.

Mr. Fox’s voice is among a growing, if uncoordinated, chorus of influential Mexicans worried about what a Trump victory could mean for the complex relationship between the United States and Mexico — not to mention the impact Mr. Trump’s presidential bid may have already had.

The voices have included at least two former Mexican presidents, top government officials, political analysts, academics, editorial writers and cultural figures.

President Enrique Peña Nieto likened the candidate’s language to that of Hitler and Mussolini in an interview with Mexico’s Excelsior newspaper. And he recently shuffled his diplomatic corps in the United States, replacing Mexico’s ambassador to Washington and installing new consuls general around the country, in part to strengthen his administration’s response to the rise of Mr. Trump and what it reflects about American sentiment toward Mexico.

While many leaders around the world are worried about how Mr. Trump’s campaign, win or lose, could shape American foreign policy, the concerns are particularly pointed in Mexico and throughout the Mexican diaspora because of the exceptionally close geographic, economic, demographic and cultural ties between the two countries.

The two countries are now enjoying one of the more harmonious periods in a turbulent history. But many in Mexico fear that the friendship would rupture should Mr. Trump win the election and follow through on his threats to undo the North American Free Trade Agreement, force Mexico to pay for the construction of a wall between the countries by interrupting remittances and deport the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States, about half of whom are Mexican.

“His threat is cataclysmic, I think, for Mexico,” Enrique Krauze, a Mexican historian and literary magazine editor, said in an interview. “What it would mean for bilateral trade, in social terms, in the tearing of families, in the trauma, the collective panic, the opening of old wounds.”

He added: “I can use one of Trump’s favorite words. Yes, this is huge. It’s a huge danger.”

Mexican critics of Mr. Trump say he has already damaged the image of their country and of the Mexican people with his espousal of views that many regard as xenophobic. At a rally to kick off his campaign in June, the Republican candidate suggested that many Mexican immigrants were drug traffickers and rapists.

Mexican officials, concerned about negative impressions of Mexico in the United States, have been rolling out a strategy to improve the image of their country and show how the relationship between the two nations has been of “mutual benefit,” said Paulo Carreño, the newly appointed under secretary for North America in Mexico’s Foreign Ministry.

The strategy includes “cultural diplomacy,” grass-roots activism and the deployment of Mexican community and business leaders living in the United States, he said.

As part of the strategy, the Peña Nieto administration shook up its diplomatic corps in the United States last month: The Mexican ambassador to Washington, Miguel Basáñez Ebergenyi, who had been in the job less than a year, was abruptly replaced by Carlos Sada Solana, a veteran diplomat. In addition, 26 consulates changed leadership.

A statement from the Foreign Ministry announcing Mr. Sada’s appointment emphasized his experience “protecting the rights of Mexicans in North America, as well as defending the interests of Mexican abroad.”
Photo
Vicente Fox, a former Mexican president. His voice is among a chorus of influential Mexicans worried about what a Trump victory could mean for the relationship between the United States and Mexico. Credit Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

In addition, a few high-level government officials have reacted publicly to Mr. Trump, including Humberto Roque Villanueva, the Interior Ministry’s under secretary for population, migration and migratory affairs. He told the newspaper El Universal this month that the Mexican government was analyzing “how to confront what we would call the Trump emergency.”

“I believe Mr. Trump speaks off the top of his head and doesn’t have a clear idea about financial matters or international accords,” he added. “We live in a globalized world. The United States would have to return to a kind of Middle Ages to prohibit remittances or charge tariffs that aren’t charged in other parts of the world.”

In general, however, the administration has mostly refrained from commenting on the candidate.

That has frustrated many Mexicans, who have called on the government to come to the defense of Mexico and push back at Mr. Trump more forcefully.

“They can package that in the traditional Mexican nonsense: We don’t interfere in elections,” said Jorge Castañeda, a former foreign minister. “The real reason is that they have no idea what to do, so the default option is to do nothing.”

Instead, most of the Mexican agitation against Mr. Trump has come from the general public. At the beginning of his campaign, many Mexicans viewed Mr. Trump with a mixture of alarm and amusement. But the amusement has mostly fallen away.

“Why should we worry?” Mr. Krauze asked, rhetorically. “I couldn’t think of a reason not to worry, no?”

In the fall, Mr. Krauze and Carmelo Mesa-Lago, an emeritus professor of economics and Latin American studies at the University of Pittsburgh, drafted a letter denouncing Mr. Trump’s campaign. Sixty-seven prominent Latinos — academics, scientists, writers and filmmakers in the United States, Spain and Latin America — signed it.

“His hate speech appeals to lower passions like xenophobia, machismo, political intolerance and religious dogmatism,” the letter said.

In recent months, Mr. Castañeda has been pushing a pro-Mexico social media campaign with the hashtag #ImProudToBeMexican. Aiming at an American, English-speaking audience, he has uploaded videos to Facebook and a campaign website extolling the diversity of the Mexican diaspora and its contributions to the United States.

Explaining the American focus of this lobby, he said: “I don’t want to convince Mexicans how nasty Trump is, because everyone knows that. That’s a done deal.”

Mr. Fox’s drumbeat of harangues against Mr. Trump began in February when he declared in a television interview, using a forceful expletive, that Mexicans would not build the candidate’s proposed wall. He escalated from there, chiding Mr. Trump with language that sometimes devolved into schoolyard churlishness.

He called the candidate “a false prophet,” “dictator” and “loser.” He posted a selfie taken against the backdrop of a beach with this message: “Trump, this beautiful Cancun. YOU ARE NOT WELCOME HERE.” He posted photos from his wife’s birthday party, taunting Mr. Trump: “What do you know about love? Or you just know about hating. How sad!”

This month, Mr. Fox expressed contrition for some of his comments in an interview with Breitbart News and apologized to Mr. Trump. But amid blowback from Mexicans on social media and elsewhere who accused him of weakness, he resumed his badgering, posting photos on social media of a Trump-brand tie made in China and a Trump-brand jacket made in Mexico — evidence, he said, of the candidate’s hypocrisy.

Mr. Fox said in a telephone interview from his home in Guanajuato State that he was motivated to attack Mr. Trump by what he called “pure love for that great nation, the United States.”

“I don’t understand why the American public is buying this,” he continued, pain in his voice. “We are partners, we are neighbors, and we should be friends. He’s dividing not only American society, but he’s dividing two nations.

“Why does he pick on Mexico?”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 23, 2016, 03:08:39 AM
Is Vicente Fox a secret Trump supporter?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Hillary goes after Trump taxes
Post by: DougMacG on May 23, 2016, 09:55:16 AM
Right out of the Harry Reid playbook, force the release by telling a bald faced lie: Hillary says Trump pays no federal income tax:

“If you’ve got someone running for president who’s afraid to release his tax returns, because it will expose the fact that he pays no federal income tax, I think that’s a big problem,” the former secretary of state said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”  (HuffPost)

Wouldn't this type of attack hurt her??

On the one hand:  I can't run for public office because I would hate the scrutiny and yet this guy is a complete public figure and runsfor the highest office without disclosing anything he doesn't want to.

On the other hand:  
Larry Elder last week on why Trump won't release his taxes:
http://townhall.com/columnists/larryelder/2016/05/19/heres-why-trump-tap-dances-on-taxes-n2165155
In a nutshell, the biased media botched their handled of the Romney tax return release so badly that there is no way a person in the position of Trump or Romney should ever give them a shred of material to work with ever again.

If I were Trump, my story now would be that she is the career politician, she and her cronies wrote the tax code.  He is the outsider; he opposes this tax code.  His tax return tells how her laws applied to his business and his private data.  If she has a problem with that, why didn't she reform these bad laws when she was in the White House for 8 years, the Senate for two terms and then again in the executive branch another four years?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 23, 2016, 10:06:08 AM
If I were Trump, I'd say I will release my taxes as soon as Hillary releases her transcripts from her speeches to Goldman Sachs.
Title: Can't say Trump lacks balls
Post by: G M on May 23, 2016, 10:26:26 AM
https://www.instagram.com/p/BFwTioiGhQj/

He takes the fight to Hillary, he might well win.
Title: electoral college in Nov
Post by: ccp on May 25, 2016, 08:43:35 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/clinton-versus-trump-pred_b_9848032.html?yptr=yahoo
Title: Re: electoral college in Nov
Post by: DougMacG on May 25, 2016, 09:42:24 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/clinton-versus-trump-pred_b_9848032.html?yptr=yahoo

Spoiler:  Clinton 347; Trump 191

Logic:  Demographics.

Author:  A novelist

As they say in sports, a lot of game left to be played. 
Title: Re: electoral college in Nov
Post by: G M on May 25, 2016, 09:47:24 AM
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-north-patterson/clinton-versus-trump-pred_b_9848032.html?yptr=yahoo

Hillary it utterly unpleasant to see, listen to, or be around. Even her supporters deep down know how evil and corrupt she is.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 25, 2016, 12:56:57 PM
"Even her supporters deep down know how evil and corrupt she is

but do they care?   Not enough obviously.   :cry:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 25, 2016, 04:13:34 PM
"Even her supporters deep down know how evil and corrupt she is

but do they care?   Not enough obviously.   :cry:

Everyone knows, but I guess by definition, her supporters don't care.  Still [lack of] enthusiasm matters in politics.  Nobody is excited to support her.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on May 25, 2016, 04:19:59 PM
"Even her supporters deep down know how evil and corrupt she is

but do they care?   Not enough obviously.   :cry:

Everyone knows, but I guess by definition, her supporters don't care.  Still [lack of] enthusiasm matters in politics.  Nobody is excited to support her.

Hey, the free shit army won't get it's free shit without her. Kind of like her and Bill, it's a marriage of convenience.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 30, 2016, 07:11:52 AM
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/2016-election-hillary-clinton-campaign-loses-defeated-donald-trump-213924
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on May 30, 2016, 07:47:17 AM
Don't worry Hill.  Bill Kristol to the rescue with a third party candidate. Presumable perrenial losers from the Romney family.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/29/bill-kristol-will-independent-candidate/
Title: Male Gender Gap
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 30, 2016, 08:59:51 AM
Does anyone pay attention to Bill Kristol? Last I saw of him he was sent down to the minors some years ago after playing on the panel for FOX's "Special Report with Britt Hume".

=================================================

http://www.dickmorris.com/male-gender-gap-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on May 30, 2016, 07:30:19 PM
Don't worry Hill.  Bill Kristol to the rescue with a third party candidate. Presumable perrenial losers from the Romney family.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/29/bill-kristol-will-independent-candidate/

Seems like they have a timing issue.  There was a window of time to advance other candidates. 
Title: Voter Fraud...
Post by: objectivist1 on June 01, 2016, 05:25:55 AM

The Zombie Voter Apocalypse: California Refuses to Admit Its Voter Fraud Problem

Hans von Spakovsky / Jana Minich / May 26, 2016

Hollywood has always loved making films about the walking dead, but in Southern California it appears they have a real life problem with “zombie” voters.

An investigation by CBSLA2 and KCAL9 found that hundreds of deceased persons are still on voter registration rolls in the area, and that many of these names have been voting for years in Los Angeles.

For example, John Cenkner died in 2003, according to Social Security Administration records, yet he voted in the 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2010 elections. His daughter told the station that she was “astounded” and couldn’t “understand how anybody” could get away with this.

Another voter, Julita Abutin, died in 2006 but voted in 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014. According to CBS, the county confirmed they have “signed vote-by-mail envelopes” from Abutin since she passed away. So either someone has been forging her signature or her ghost has quite an earthly presence.

The investigation revealed that 265 deceased persons voted in Southern California, 215 of them in Los Angeles County. Thirty-two were repeat voters, with eight posthumously-cast ballots each. One woman who died in 1988 has been voting for 26 years, including in the 2014 election.

This report comes 20 years after the contested election of Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Calif., from this same area. An investigation by a U.S. House committee found that hundreds of illegal ballots were cast by noncitizens and improper absentee ballots.

In that 1996 election, when she defeated incumbent Bob Dornan, a winning margin of 979 votes was whittled down to only 35 votes or fewer when that voter fraud was factored in. In cases like these, where elections are decided by only a small number of votes, the harmful effects of voter fraud are most obvious.

Yet here, two decades later, California has still not taken the necessary steps to ensure the reliability of its electoral system.

As a result of the investigation, Los Angeles County supervisors called for an investigation into the findings. Even if these particular zombie voters did not change the outcome of an election, each fraudulently cast ballot stole and diluted the vote of a legitimate voter.

Cases like these and many others show that voter fraud is a real phenomenon and a potential threat to the integrity of the election process.

The Los Angeles County Registrar pointed to the 1200 to 2000 voter registrations removed every month to update records and told reporters, “There’s really no way to connect a person whose death is recorded with a person who is registered to vote unless we get some kind of notification from the family.”

But that is plain nonsense. Other states do frequent comparisons between their voter registration lists and the death databases maintained by the Social Security Administration, and other state agencies consult vital records departments in order to remove voters who have died.

The CBS investigation shows both that voter fraud exists and that this type of fraudulent voting is detectable through proper investigation.

CBS reports that California is the only state that does not comply with the Help America Vote Act of 2002, something the Obama administration has basically ignored.

The Help America Vote Act establishes mandatory minimum standards of accuracy for state voter registration lists and requires states to engage in regular maintenance and updates to remove ineligible voters who die or move away.

California is obviously not complying with these requirements.
Title: The "Never Trump" Lunatics...
Post by: objectivist1 on June 01, 2016, 05:58:43 AM
These people (Bill Kristol, Ben Shapiro, Erick Erickson, et. al.) are pathetic and detestable in my view.  They clearly value their own establishment connections and power base above the general welfare of the country, and are perfectly willing to see Hillary Clinton elected president.  In fact, I think many of them get a perverse schadenfreude moment just thinking about a Hillary victory.  See Erickson's latest article below.

Perhaps No Scapegoat

By Erick Erickson  |  June 1, 2016, 05:00am


Should David French make it on the ballot in Georgia, I would gladly vote for him. David French, unlike any other candidate for President, left his job after 9/11 and joined the military to fight for his country. He is a conservative scholar, has provided a lot of pro bono legal work to good causes, and is someone I could vote for as opposed to having others suggest I choose between the evils of two lessers.

I know who David French is, but had never spoken to him until around 10 o’clock on Monday evening. He appears to be the candidate behind Bill Kristol’s tweet about a third party candidate. I told David on Monday night I thought he needed to come out with a pile of money committed. Kristol’s tweet, however, along with an article mentioning David, rushed the story quicker than David wanted. It was an unforced error that forces David out quicker than I think he intended. A bit humorously, I suddenly find myself getting credit and blame for something I played no role in and did not know about until just over 24 hours ago.

Over the past few weeks a lot of names have circulated for an independent or third party run. I focused on Ben Sasse and Mitt Romney, neither of whom will do it. As friends of mine have increasingly become desperate for a candidate, i have moved more and more to thinking perhaps we should not offer up a candidate.

Donald Trump and his chief supporters have said over and over again that they do not need me or any other conservative in order to win in November. According to Trump, he is going to reshape the Republican coalition and beat the Democrats. More and more I am inclined to let him try.

I do not think Donald Trump will win. Should Trump lose in November, he and his supporters will be desperate to find someone to blame other than Trump himself. An independent candidate provides them a scapegoat to avoid responsibility.

It is very similar to Al Gore in 2000. Gore had Ralph Nader to blame and the Democrats never had to take seriously their fundamental problems. They had to again get clobbered with John Kerry in order to take a hint and find a happy warrior who was going to campaign on “hope and change” instead of piss, vinegar, and Mexican rapists like Trump is doing now.

The Republican Party, with Trump, is embracing a campaign of racism, nativism, and fear mongering wrapped in a Messiah complex of a man who promises everything without limits. If it wins in November, I will gladly say I had no role to play in that victory. If it loses in November, I will gladly cheer Donald Trump’s defeat. But I am increasingly convinced an independent candidate just gives Trump one more excuse and one more target of blame for what I think is his inevitable defeat.

Should David French raise the money and get out the ballot, I’d relish being able to support him and vote for him. I had to hold my nose for McCain. I had to hold my nose for Romney. I will not hold my nose for Trump. I will not vote for the man. I would gladly vote for David French — a man willing to drop everything to serve his country at war, a far more noble endeavor than anything Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump have ever done. I will contribute money to David French. For the first time in two cycles I’d have a candidate I want to vote for.

But more and more I wonder if, for the good of the conservative movement, we should watch Trump fall on his own instead of providing him a conservative scapegoat.
Title: " schadenfreude "
Post by: ccp on June 01, 2016, 12:41:02 PM
If you're like me and needed help with this one:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude
Title: Re: " schadenfreude "
Post by: G M on June 01, 2016, 12:42:46 PM
If your like me and needed help with this one:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schadenfreude

Anyone shocked that the Germans have a word for taking pleasure in the suffering of others?
Title: Jon Stewart rips Dullary a new anus and makes case for Sandernista
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 01, 2016, 07:00:28 PM
http://www.downvids.net/demopocalypse-jon-stewart-comes-out-of-retirement-813527.html
Title: The EDC returns fire, advantage EDC
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 03, 2016, 04:15:59 PM
http://www.liberalamerica.org/2016/06/03/trump-claims-hillary-made-quotes-provides-links/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 04, 2016, 04:14:28 PM
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436189/republican-party-2016-election-chances-dont-look-good
Title: Cops stood aside as Trump people attacked
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 05, 2016, 10:37:44 AM
http://www.youngcons.com/after-trump-supporters-are-beaten-at-rally-cops-confess-they-intentionally-let-it-happen/
Title: Re: Cops stood aside as Trump people attacked
Post by: G M on June 05, 2016, 02:43:06 PM
http://www.youngcons.com/after-trump-supporters-are-beaten-at-rally-cops-confess-they-intentionally-let-it-happen/

When law enforcement doesn't do it's job, or even worse, is politicized,this does not bode well for the nation.
Title: Bret Stephens WSJ: Hillary more surivable than Trump
Post by: DougMacG on June 05, 2016, 09:07:17 PM
Bret Stephens, WSJ Pulitzer Prize winner who I admire very much and agree with on almost everthig, maybe not this, says Hillary ight be more survivable than Trump:

The best hope for what’s left of a serious conservative movement in America is the election in November of a Democratic president, held in check by a Republican Congress. Conservatives can survive liberal administrations, especially those whose predictable failures lead to healthy restorations—think Carter, then Reagan. What isn’t survivable is a Republican president who is part Know Nothing, part Smoot-Hawley and part John Birch. The stain of a Trump administration would cripple the conservative cause for a generation.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/hillary-the-conservative-hope-1462833870
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 06, 2016, 04:30:17 AM
This is certainly a possibility that Trump could do so much damage that he would in the long game screw it up for good for Republicans.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Dem nomination
Post by: DougMacG on June 06, 2016, 08:50:19 AM
Prediction: Bernie will eek out a win in California but Hillary will clinch the nomination (In NJ) before the polls close in Calif.

Obama administration could make that more interesting by indicting Hillary on the same day hoping to help her 'get that behind her'.   Okay, that is 'not likely' but they are running out of time.  What are they going to do, announce the results of the investigation after the election?

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/axelrod-clinton-will-clinch-nomination-before-the-polls-close-in-california/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-leads-hillary-clinton-new-poll-california

Funny that Trump clinched first in a field of 17 than Hillary over Bernie, but after tomorrow that is a footnote in history.

The conventions are only about a month out.  Republicans go first.  Hillary sees Trump's running mate choice first before announcing hers.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 06, 2016, 09:45:03 AM
Bret Stephens analysis is profoundly flawed.  Losing 3-5 SCOTUS picks to Hillary would be a catastrophe from which this country would not recover.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Stephens, Trump
Post by: DougMacG on June 06, 2016, 10:24:11 AM
Bret Stephens analysis is profoundly flawed.  Losing 3-5 SCOTUS picks to Hillary would be a catastrophe from which this country would not recover.

That's right about Hillary, but what about Trump? 

Electing another big government Republican (in name only) is ALSO something from which we will never recover.  Trump already defeated and destroyed the movement of which I was a part.  Win or lose for Trump, limited government conservatism is gone.  And now what the opponents say is true, that Republicans are the party of the rich, support cronyism for the powerful, favor special treatment for their own, hate minorities, want to pick winners and losers, etc.  How do we come back from that and how long will it take?  We can't; it won't happen in our lifetimes. 

In words only and putting her record aside, Hillary has a better grasp of US foreign policy than Trump.  He is clearly running to her left on foreign policy , and trade policy! He may win on both, good for him, but we lose IMHO.

Trump issued a list of acceptable, conservative judges that fully support my principles (and yours most likely).  Great, but what if he appoints Justices that support HIS views, that government knows best in terms of (non-existent) property right, no limits on takings or picking economic winners and losers with preferences and targeted, punitive taxes and regulations?  Uphold all of that over protecting property rights and equal protection under the law and what have we gained?  Nothing I can see.

I moved just recently to where G M has.  It is too late to save the country.  We already upheld the idea forcing us to buy government mandated "insurance".  We already ruled that it is fine for the federal government to prohibit growing your own grain on your own property to feed your own animals.  No one still in the race thinks that went too far, is outrageous.  We already upheld the power of state and local governments to take private property for preferred private property interests.  We already re-defined marriage i the Courts.  We already allow the federal government to run roughshod over all formerly private industries, to set payroll rules for people at the top, middle and bottom of the pay scale - in the "private sector"!  Sorry but no one still in the race is running against any of this.  Our side is represented by the guy who will build the best and biggest government we have ever seen!

Meanwhile, we also blew off the idea of holding the Senate.  That has something to do with Supreme Court appointments too!  Which Justice on the Trump good list gets confirmed in a Shumer-Durbin Senate? 
Title: 2016 Pres, Gary Johnson, Bill Weld, Libertarians blew a great opportunity
Post by: DougMacG on June 08, 2016, 08:32:32 AM
Libertarians are running a ticket with two, two-term Republican Governors.  With Hillary and Trump at maximum, historic disapproval this should be the year and the opportunity to set up a real alternative.  But they refuse to offer any possibility of merging with conservatives to offer a real alternative.

i learned through Ron Paul and Rand Paul foreign policies that liberty is for people who already have it. Screw those who don't even though we received significant outside intervention to gain our own freedom.

How about the liberty of the unborn or the person who chooses to not participate in a gay wedding.  Oops, no liberty or 'pro-choice' for them.
---------------------------------------------
Is This Where Libertarians Say Goodbye to Conservatives?
To right-wingers, Gary Johnson's embrace of "social liberalism" negates his pledge to "sign off on any reduction in the federal government."
Nick Gillespie|Jun. 7, 2016

http://reason.com/blog/2016/06/07/is-this-where-libertarians-say-goodbye-t
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 08, 2016, 09:12:59 AM
Feeling deeply discouraged by Trump's verbal flatulence about the "Mexican" federal judge and Muslim judges being too biased to judge him.

He (and now we too by virtue of our support of him) was already on thin ice with latinos and much of the American public with regard to "Mexican rapists", illegal immigration, Muslim moratorium, and related comments. 

As best as I can tell, any conversation I get into from here forward, be it here, with my 5,000 FB friends, or elsewhere, will be based upon the "fact" that Trump is a bigot, even Paul Ryan says so and even a Rep. Senator has withdrawn his endorsement.  As best as I can tell, the movement towards party unity is done for.  Now any time he talks about illegal immigration the answer will be "bigot" and what will the reply be?  Any time he talks about tightening Muslim immigration and visitor visas (he's already walked away from his original call for a moratorium-- which he uncleverly called a "ban")

Unless we are saved by the FBI, Hillary is the nominee and the pravdas will be celebrating her "historical" success and Obama, now with an approval rating of over 50% (WTF?!?) will be jumping in with two feet, mocking Trump as only he can.  "Official" unemployment is down in the 4s, and the voters will be dazzled with an array of statistical bullsh*t that it would take a more serious analysis to take down than most voters care to comprehend.

Listen to Hillary's so-called "foreign policy" speech of several days ago.  There is actually quite a bit of effective anti-Trump material in there.

The advocacy of torture and killing the families of the enemy (war crimes both), the perceived bigotry of his immigration policies, the stench of Trump University-- how do we make the case to independents?  To Sandernistas? To Latinos?

And so, last night Trump gave a teleprompter speech with fresh content (the Clinton Foundation as hedge fund of corruption fueled by selling out America to her enemies)  But it was flat and dull, and the confidence that used to exude from Melanie and Ivanka, standing behind him was gone-- their faces now grim masks.

At the moment a betting man would say we are fuct.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 08, 2016, 10:32:48 AM
Seconding Crafty's comments [deeply discouraged, f*ct], only worse.

"Unless we are saved by the FBI,..."

No, not even that.  On the Dem side, they couldn't be more crippled already.  No matter what happens on their side we are still stuck without a candidate and without a possibility of ever re-uniting the movement without just selling out to principle that at least for me are not my own.

I predicted, Hillary will not run, will not win the nomination if she runs and will not be elected if nominated.  Further I predicted that Trump would never win the Republican nomination and could never be the strongest candidate to run against Hillary or other leftist.

i was right on all the underlying facts.  Her scandals blew up in her face, her corruption has been fully exposed and her weaknesses as a candidate have been on full display.

On the other side, Trump was so bad people started to accept the Senate's most conservative member as the centrist compromise.  All of what we feared to be bad about Trump came true.

If Hillary were handcuffed, hauled off, locked up and held without bail, it wouldn't solve a single one of our problems.  She would still win or Bernie or Biden etc would in her place.  We are stuck without a leader and without an acceptable candidate to represent our interests with 5 months to go before the election.  That means we are screwed for more than 4 years, probably more than 8 years, for the rest of our lifetimes and likely forever - not to be overly negative about it.

On my bet with ccp, it is time for me to concede.  You were right.  You didn't want to be right but your were right.  I think I will send you my bank transfer codes and you can take what I owe before the big crony government ruling uni-party takes the rest.
Title: Morris: Hillary not over the top yet
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 08, 2016, 10:33:54 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/hillary-still-198-votes-short-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Hillary on immigration in 2006
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 09, 2016, 12:13:58 AM
https://www.facebook.com/numbersusa/videos/1135342756522418/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 09, 2016, 06:39:13 AM
How perfect for the crook.  Pay off her silicon valley donors and bring in millions of new Democrat Party voters to all keep her in power.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 09, 2016, 09:03:32 AM
"On my bet with ccp, it is time for me to concede.  You were right.  You didn't want to be right but your were right.  I think I will send you my bank transfer codes and you can take what I owe before the big crony government ruling uni-party takes the rest."

First time I won a bet and hated it!

To think my taxes will go up MORE!   :x  The Dem party is just going bonkers waiting to get Christy out of NJ and the Democratic mafia will rape us more at the state level as well.

All the while immigrants are just flooding in from all over the world and voting for them .

"Elizabeth the Great" is now "rumored" to be endorsing Hillary.  AS Doug and one of my favorite TV characters would have said , surprise surprise surprise.

She is formidable only because the left media just so adores her.  She can do no wrong.  She is the left's great vaginal hope.  More than Hillary
Title: Stewart Rhodes: Patriots Must Step Up to Protect Americans Against Assault.
Post by: objectivist1 on June 09, 2016, 05:45:33 PM
IN THE WAKE OF SAN JOSE, PATRIOTS MUST STEP UP TO PROTECT ALL AMERICANS AGAINST ASSAULT BY VIOLENT THUGS

An article posted in the morning hours of June 09, 2016, [HERE] is titled:

San Jose Undercover Cops: “Trump Supporters were running for their lives – We were unable to help”…

In light of several key factors arising from the article at Conservative Treehouse, Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes wishes to issue a statement, which I will post below.  However, let us first set the tone by viewing a video clip from YouTube:



In addition to posting the above video in their article, the “Conservative Treehouse” also has furnished some police reports from City of San Jose, California, which include —

Under Cover San Jose Officer #1: […] Throughout the afternoon and evening I watched several individuals wearing “Trump” articles of clothing getting punched, kicked and pushed.

Under Cover #2: […] I was assigned to the Covert Response Unit and dressed in a plainclothes capacity. … As time came closer to 18:00 more protesters arrived; mostly younger males and females between the ages of 14 to 25.  … some began burning the United States flag in the middle of the street. It became inherently dangerous for anyone wearing a hat or T-Shirt in support of Trump.  I observed Trump supporters being spit on, objects being thrown at them, punched, kicked and even robbed of their personal belongings.  In these instances I observed victims running for their lives because protesters began adopting the mob mentality and attacking people.  I was unable to make contact with any of these victims due to my undercover capacity and fear for my own safety as well.

I strongly recommend going to the original article and following their embedded links, where readers will learn about the Mayor’s complicity in the police stand-down and the official policy for police to allow this to take place outside a Trump for President rally on June 02.  Example:

San Jose Police Chief Garcia admitted his officers were instructed not to stop violent protesters from beating the Trump rally attendees. In addition the San Jose Mayor has openly admitted to approving the San Jose police departments plans, and blamed Donald Trump for having the audacity to have a rally in “his city“.

Do go to the original site and check the other embedded links to get yet more insight into what transpired, and did not transpire but should have. And if you want to go up a level or two in your perception of today’s America, check out Michael Shaw’s outstanding work on the Globalization of California.

Message From Stewart Rhodes

No American, anywhere, whether you agree with their views or not, should be attacked for expressing their God given (and Constitution protected) rights of free speech and assembly, and their right to participate in our political process. And no police officer, who has sworn an oath to support and defend the Constitution, should obey any order to not protect the rights of people to peaceably assemble and express their views, and should refuse any order to stand by and do nothing as violent, criminal thugs assault Americans who are simply exercising their rights. It is a disgrace to have the police obey such orders, and an act of treason for the politicians to give such orders.

If officers are so outnumbered that they are concerned for their own safety, that is one thing, but to not intervene because some oath breaking, partisan scumbag politician orders them to stand down, so the politician’s thuggish foot-soldiers have a free hand to terrorize and assault other Americans, is inexcusable. Whatever happened to “Protect and Serve”? The fundamental justification for having police, or having government at all, is to protect people against predatory violence. These violent communist and La Raza racist thugs are the true “Brownshirts” of modern America, attempting to use violence and intimidation to shut down free speech and assembly.

If the police will not protect Americans from violent assault meant to punish them for their political views, and meant to silence them by force, then Americans will have to protect themselves, and each other, from such violence.

I call on all patriotic Americans to step up and protect the weak, the elderly, the vulnerable among them against these thugs, wherever they strike. Veterans, you have a particular obligation and duty, under your oath, to step up and protect your fellow Americans by stepping in between them and these thugs.  In the absence of police protection, Veterans need to step in the gap and form up five to eight man security teams who can serve as escorts and rescue people from being beaten.

As anyone versed in defensive tactics or combatives will tell you, whenever anyone is sucker punched there is a very real and serious risk that they will fall and then hit their head on the concrete, on a parking block, on a curb, on a parked car, etc and that secondary impact can, and does, result in death.  A person can also be stomped and kicked to death by a mob in short order. These are deadly threat mob assaults and must be treated as such.

Anyone attending any event targeted by these radical leftist extremists needs to realize they are in a tactical situation that requires them to prepare for the worst and to take steps to protect themselves. They should go in groups of four or more, and among them needs to be people who are fit enough, and trained enough, to hold their own in a melee. If you are a fit, strong veteran, you have a duty to be the “sheepdog” and walk with those who are less able to defend themselves. Go in groups, and be ready to defend yourselves and others.

Any Oath Keeper who goes out and protects people who are under such threat of assault is doing the right thing. And we need to be willing to do that for ANY American under such threat, even if we disagree with their political views (for example, even if you disagree with Democrats who will be attending the DNC, or any other Democrat gathering, you should be willing to protect them if they are assaulted by violent radicals, and the same for Republicans attending the RNC). This org is non-partisan for a very good reason. We must stand for the rights of all Americans, at all times, in all places.

When we stepped up in Ferguson, MO and protected Natalie, of Natalie’s Cakes and More (who happens to be a black woman), and her neighbors, we didn’t ask them what political party they belonged to, or what their politics were. It didn’t matter. We protected them because it was the right thing to do, and because no American should be assaulted, murdered by arsonists, or raped, robbed, or looted. Same here.

I will be holding an urgent Oath Keepers BOD and leadership call tomorrow night to discuss this situation and how we can help. But all patriots, regardless of what group they are in, need to step up and protect people against such violence and attempts to use force to chill their speech.

These are intolerable acts of thuggery that must be stopped.

For the Republic,

Stewart Rhodes

PS – the San Jose Police Department has issued a statement, defending their inaction, saying:

While several physical assaults did occur, the police personnel on scene had the difficult task of weighing the need to immediately apprehend the suspect(s) against the possibility that police action involving the use of physical force under the circumstances would further insight the crowd and produce more violent behavior.

What a load of bull.  I just got off the phone with veteran police officers and tactical trainers Greg McWhirter (former Indianapolis cop and current Montana corrections) and John Karriman (Missouri Police Academy Defensive Tactics instructor) and both of them stated that standing down is exactly opposite of what the San Jose police should have done, and only emboldened the thugs, producing more violent behavior, since the thugs could clearly see that the police would do nothing to stop them.  The right answer was to drop a hammer on the first thugs to commit assault, including using less than lethal rubber baton shotgun rounds if needed (thugs hate and fear shotguns) and pepper balls.  Make an example of a few, and the rest tend to back off (just like any gaggle of bullies).  The excuse given by the department is akin to a cowardly husband saying “don’t resist Martha, or it will make them angry, just let them have their way” which usually results in rape and murder of both of them.   It gives the thugs a green light and the thrill of doing as they wish right in front of the police.  What’s next?   Will “politically correct” cops let someone be beaten to death in front of them out of fear of inciting the crowd to more violent behavior?   Given how fast someone can be beaten to death by a mob, that nobody was killed here was just blind luck, and certainly not because of anything the San Jose Police Department did.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 12, 2016, 06:03:45 AM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

Could there be any other reason for this other than the easily persuadable group of voters looking at the 2 candidates running and concluding that Obama is not so bad after all?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 12, 2016, 07:28:18 AM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/gallup-daily-obama-job-approval.aspx

Could there be any other reason for this other than the easily persuadable group of voters looking at the 2 candidates running and concluding that Obama is not so bad after all?

Worst recovery in history with domestic ad world security spiraling out of control, 54% approval??!!  This is the failure of the Republican primary campaign. 

We had 17 reasonably strong candidates competing to best explain of how Obama governed wrong and how best for Republicans can set it right.  Trump single-handedly turned that into a circular firing squad.  Now he thinks he won.  Some winner, he trails Hillary by 10 points in his own favorite poll, Reuters.   He has now driven Obama's numbers up over 50.  We know everything wrong with everyone from Jeb Bush to Scott Walker but President Barack Obama got a pass.   Trump's more unpopular than the felon Hillary.  He is poised to lose the Senate.  He still doesn't know how the economy or the nuclear triad works, thinks Mexico is in Indiana and that Indiana's problems are in Mexico.  He doesn't care about balancing the budget, reforming entitlements or stopping Putin.

I said early on that his lack of understanding and appreciation for private property rights is an indication of flaws to come.

Trump makes Barack Obama look like an experienced and effective statesman.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on June 12, 2016, 07:35:08 AM
"Trump makes Barack Obama look like an experienced and effective statesman."

Doug I suspect this is exactly right!
Rather suddenly Brock's numbers are climbing 10 % which must be related to Trump scaring off independents or whatever one wants to call the group that votes with whomever sounds good on THAT day!

Remember how Clinton's numbers went up 15 tp 20 points after a single speech?

All else is forgiven as long as the politician says the right thing on a given day.

WE can be sure Hillary will study this to death.  Trump seems to only know attacks and slogans.
It is looking worse every day he keeps doing the same thing.
Clinton will understand this.  So will some Trump people .  But will Trump?

It worked for him up to this point but I don't think he is going to win over these "day to day reactionary thinkers" who always seem to be (ironically) the group that decides national elections.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 12, 2016, 11:45:06 AM
"Trump seems to only know attacks and slogans.
It is looking worse every day he keeps doing the same thing."


George Will said (paraphrasing), changing Trump would be like telling Mick Jagger and Keith Richards to get off of rock and roll; people want to hear chamber music.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 14, 2016, 06:40:25 PM
I heard the WSJ reported that FBI sources say the EDC is not going to be charged?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on June 14, 2016, 07:25:22 PM
I heard the WSJ reported that FBI sources say the EDC is not going to be charged?



After Buraq Hussein endorsed her? It was clear the fix was in.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2016, 10:41:41 AM
Caught a bit of the EDC with Forked Tongue Warren this morning.

Seems to be good synergy between the two. 

FTW has some very good populist issues (Feds should not be profiting on your students loans , , , on an education which should be free anyway) and that Consumer Protection Board she helped set up. 

Regarding the latter, they ARE some seriously hideous practices by finance companies (See "This Week with John Oliver" episode on this) and FTW's attacks on them and other consumer protection issues will play very well AND allow the EDC to ride the coat tails of her popularity on this issue-- allowing her to shore up her very weak link of being 'for' the little guy.

Also, FTW is a very good attack dog against Trump.  EDC was chortling about how she gets under Trump's skin.


Prediction:  The EDC will choose FTW for VP.
Title: Progressive Fascists vs. , , , various neo-Nazi and others Sacramento, CA
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2016, 11:20:39 AM
http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/crime/article86099332.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on June 27, 2016, 11:46:08 AM
Caught a bit of the EDC with Forked Tongue Warren this morning.

Seems to be good synergy between the two.  

FTW has some very good populist issues (Feds should not be profiting on your students loans , , , on an education which should be free anyway) and that Consumer Protection Board she helped set up.  

Regarding the latter, they ARE some seriously hideous practices by finance companies (See "This Week with John Oliver" episode on this) and FTW's attacks on them and other consumer protection issues will play very well AND allow the EDC to ride the coat tails of her popularity on this issue-- allowing her to shore up her very weak link of being 'for' the little guy.

Also, FTW is a very good attack dog against Trump.  EDC was chortling about how she gets under Trump's skin.


Prediction:  The EDC will choose FTW for VP.

Didn't see that, but agree to a point.  Choosing Warren locks in the woman question.  Trump probably picks a man because he needs some gravitas and the few women that would give him that (Condaleeza Rice?) will not do it.  She gets the historic matchup, men against women, and she has the most (bad) experience.

Warren locks up the Bernie sympathizers, a big part of populism and the hard left.  The downside is that they leave the middle wide open.  Warren isn't any younger, is another phony, has no relevant experience and opens up the potential to paint the ticket far left.  She is not the cautious choice like Biden and won't be excused for gaffes like Biden was.

All said, I agree, very good chance she picks her.  The other choices don't look very good.  This campaign from their point of view is about ripping Trump.
Title: Police: Progressive Fascists started it with the Neo Nazis
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2016, 03:15:54 PM
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-neo-nazi-event-stabbings-capitol-20160627-snap-story.html
Title: Howard Beale
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 27, 2016, 07:07:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE
Title: Very good clip from the Libertarian candidates
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 01, 2016, 08:31:47 PM
http://reason.com/blog/2016/06/30/is-this-gary-johnsonbill-weld-spot-the-g
Title: Huff post
Post by: ccp on July 02, 2016, 05:44:00 PM
This is an anti- semitic nod to the neo nazis from Trump  :roll: :roll: :roll:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hillary-clinton_us_5777e61fe4b09b4c43c0afb4
Title: Re: Huff post
Post by: G M on July 02, 2016, 06:49:37 PM
This is an anti- semitic nod to the neo nazis from Trump  :roll: :roll: :roll:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-hillary-clinton_us_5777e61fe4b09b4c43c0afb4

https://www.mcso.org

I never knew Joe Arapaio was Jewish!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 02, 2016, 07:17:51 PM
"I never knew Joe Arapaio was Jewish!"  He must be, he got the same star on his page!

The idiot posts from all these liberal Jews who are all hard core Democrats.

Who are they kidding?  The day after Trump is giving a speech that we must Defend Israel .  Right.  :-P




Title: Napolitano
Post by: DDF on July 06, 2016, 09:09:31 AM
https://www.facebook.com/WakeUpNewss/videos/513873412071163/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 06, 2016, 12:20:26 PM
Not that that is from quite some time ago.
Title: Distinct potential here for something going VERY seriously wrong.
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 14, 2016, 07:28:44 AM
Imagine some SJW thugs starting shit and some of these people reacting , , ,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/opinion/protesters-plan-to-be-armed-near-the-trump-convention.html?emc=edit_th_20160714&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193
Title: Re: Distinct potential here for something going VERY seriously wrong.
Post by: G M on July 14, 2016, 08:19:31 AM
Imagine some SJW thugs starting shit and some of these people reacting , , ,

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/opinion/protesters-plan-to-be-armed-near-the-trump-convention.html?emc=edit_th_20160714&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=49641193

None of this is accidental.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 14, 2016, 08:44:10 AM
Armed with weapons and even more importantly with cameras ready to document for the world any trouble that they provoke.

Today the war for America is waged with propaganda and not weapons (for the most part).
Title: Gay Billionaire amongst speakers at Rep convention
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 15, 2016, 01:53:50 AM
http://heatst.com/politics/gay-billionaire-peter-thiel-convention/
Title: Hillary on Immigration July 2016
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 15, 2016, 07:52:11 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/14/clinton-resettle-one-million-muslim-migrants-first-term-alone/
Title: Re: Hillary on Immigration July 2016
Post by: G M on July 15, 2016, 08:00:42 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/14/clinton-resettle-one-million-muslim-migrants-first-term-alone/

Yeah, but only 10% will actively wage jihad! So we got that going for us....
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 19, 2016, 09:02:23 AM
Pat Smith: ‘I Blame Hillary Clinton Personally for the Death of My Son’

Hey, remember when grieving mothers of American men slain in battle had “absolute moral authority,” in the words of New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd?

Why would Pat Smith, mother of Sean Smith, one of the four Americans killed in the attack in Benghazi on September 11, 2012, not have that same authority?

From Pat Smith’s remarks Monday night:

My son Sean was one of four brave Americans killed during the 2012 terrorist attack at Benghazi.

Sean was a wonderful son and father to my two amazing grandchildren, Samantha and Nathan, now 10 and 11. He was proud to serve his country with the United States Foreign Service. The last time I talked to Sean, the night before the terrorist attack, he told me, “Mom, I am going to die.”

All security had been pulled from the embassy, he explained. And when he asked why, he never received a response. Nobody listened. Nobody seemed to care.  The very next day, he was murdered by radical Islamic terrorists. To this day, I don’t even know why a computer guy like Sean was sent to Benghazi. That night, we lost sons, brothers, fathers, and husbands. We lost four brave Americans who made the ultimate sacrifice for the country they chose to serve. And the American people lost the truth.

For all of this loss, for all of this grief, for all of the cynicism the tragedy in Benghazi has wrought upon America, I blame Hillary Clinton. I blame Hillary Clinton personally for the death of my son.  In an email to her daughter shortly after the attack, Hillary Clinton blamed it on terrorism. But when I saw Hillary Clinton at Sean’s coffin ceremony, just days later, she looked me squarely in the eye and told me a video was responsible. Since then, I have repeatedly asked Hillary Clinton to explain to me the real reason why my son is dead. I’m still waiting.

Whenever I called the State Department, no one would speak to me because they say I am “not a member of the immediate family.” Sean is my SON. Hillary Clinton is a woman, a mother and a grandmother of two. I am a woman, a mother and a grandmother of two. How could she do this to me? How could she do this to any American family?

It will not surprise you to learn that a lot of members of the media seethed at Smith’s speech. Perhaps it was indeed exploitative for the Trump campaign to put her front and center at the convention; she’s grieving and, some will argue, looking for a scapegoat for her son’s death. (Again, I don’t recall this argument coming from any Democrats during the peak of Cindy Sheehan’s public role in antiwar activism.)

If you’re one of those folks who found Pat Smith’s remarks shamelessly exploitative, I wonder if you’ll see the same grumbling about the speakers at the upcoming Democratic National Convention:

Also scheduled Tuesday are Mothers of the Movement members Gwen Carr, Mother of Eric Garner; Sybrina Fulton, Mother of Trayvon Martin; Maria Hamilton, Mother of Dontré Hamilton; Lucia McBath, Mother of Jordan Davis; Lezley McSpadden, Mother of Michael Brown; Cleopatra Pendleton-Cowley, Mother of Hadiya Pendleton; Geneva Reed-Veal, Mother of Sandra Bland.

Oh, now it’s not okay to invoke tragic deaths in the name of a political agenda? I’ll keep that in mind next week. Or after the next mass shooting.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 19, 2016, 09:13:19 AM
"It will not surprise you to learn that a lot of members of the media seethed at Smith’s speech. Perhaps it was indeed exploitative for the Trump campaign to put her front and center at the convention; she’s grieving and, some will argue, looking for a scapegoat for her son’s death. (Again, I don’t recall this argument coming from any Democrats during the peak of Cindy Sheehan’s public role in antiwar activism.)"

Those who seethed need not worry.  There is 100 % chance we will see adorable illegal immigrant families trying to pull at our heart strings at the DNC.  (what about illegal do they not understand?)
Possible we will see the families of a minority  youth shot by a police officer as well.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 19, 2016, 10:17:47 AM
Didn't Biden have a problem with plagarizing in the past ?  woops here it is courtesy of Maureen Dowd no less.  the lib from the NYT: http://wgntv.com/2016/07/19/remember-when-joe-biden-plagiarized-a-speech-while-running-for-president/

How about this about the guy with a national monument on the Mall mentioned years ago on this board or one of the previous ones:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Luther_King_Jr._authorship_issues
Title: POTH: EDC 76% likely to win
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 19, 2016, 12:00:41 PM
Hillary Clinton has a 76% chance of winning the presidency, our election forecast finds. See the state-by-state breakdown.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016 12:50 PM EDT

Our elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Donald Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.
Title: BAraq borrrows from Duval; Michelle from Alinsky
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 19, 2016, 12:02:05 PM
https://www.facebook.com/donaldtrumppresident/videos/606879372808623/

http://www.youngcons.com/michelle-obama-caught-copying-parts-of-dnc-speech-from-saul-alinsky/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 22, 2016, 04:44:50 PM
I would think he should show a bump in the polls till Clinton mob tears him apart and promise tax payers funds for every interest group they can scrape up next week:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Michael Moore, five reasons Trump will win
Post by: DougMacG on July 24, 2016, 05:03:47 AM
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 24, 2016, 07:06:26 AM
" I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action."

Yup , she got a bad rap.  Doesn't deserve the criticism.

"Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated!"

How glorious! Yet when one of 3 or 4 singers sang "all lives matter" during  a baseball game's national anthem the group was forced to apologize.  I agree that all of us white people should be forced into ghettos and forced to pay 90% of our earnings as reparations for all the saintly non white people's of the world.  Starting with the wealthy Michael Moore.

" Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system."

Doug,
Did you vote for Ventura?  I think you have a good sense of humor.
Speaking of humor I think voting the comedian Al Franken to the Senate was pretty great.  I mean Moore doesn't see "dark" humor in that?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 24, 2016, 08:10:41 AM
" I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action."  [ - Michael Moore, not much of an endorsement!]
---------------

" Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system."

Doug,
Did you vote for Ventura?



No, I didn't vote for Ventura but I watched it happen.  He wasn't as crazy then.  Someone before him in the Independence Party or whatever they called it earned the right for him to be in the debates with 15% of the vote in a previous election.  Two totally establishment politicians set the table for people to say f*** you to both parties pretty much the way Moore described it.  That is partly analogous to Trump.  He is a way for people to say f*** you to both sides of the establishment without agreeing with him on issues.

Note the absence of all Bushes, McCain, Romney, Boehner, and Rove at Trump's convention.

We seek reason here but people vote largely on emotion.

Speaking of humor I think voting the comedian Al Franken to the Senate was pretty great.  I mean Moore doesn't see "dark" humor in that?

I was not a fan of Franken's SNL humor and he's not the least bit funny as a Senator. All he knows is sarcasm and leftism.  It was more that he was a celebrity in name and a serious voice in politics from a leftist point of view.  He wrote books on Rush Limbaugh and he hosted the failed Air America radio to challenge him, bringing in leftist thought leaders for 3 hours a day for years.  This work caused him to be fully versed on the leftist side of the issues.  By winning the DFL (Dem) nomination, he won the election in 'blue' MN.  Amy Klobuchar, the other Senator is more popular and probably more liberal.  Think Hillary Clinton without all the charm and charisma.  Trump does not bring MN into play and Hillary will only come here to raise big money.  When Reagan won 49 states, guess which one he lost...
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 24, 2016, 09:17:30 AM
"When Reagan won 49 states, guess which one he lost..."

That is right.  I forgot about that.

"Note the absence of all Bushes, McCain, Romney, Boehner, and Rove at Trump's convention."

I don't blame them.  But for me, they were not missed.  Cruz should have stayed home as well.  I can see why Cruz is so hated by nearly everyone who has to work with him.  Sure I like most of his positions but he is just not charismatic no matter what Mark Levin says.  I am afraid I am not a Ryan fan either.

My thoughts on Trump already noted on the board.  He is the only one who was running on the right or left who was saying America first.  He was the only one saying he would slow down illegal immigration.  The only one.  I have waited 25 years for that. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 25, 2016, 06:23:02 AM
"Note the absence of all Bushes, McCain, Romney, Boehner, and Rove at Trump's convention."
I don't blame them.  But for me, they were not missed.


Right.  I'm not as anti-'establishment' as some but my point is, that rift is a positive for Trump in the eyes of many he wishes to court especially those wanting to express a protest or screw them all vote.     Trump says he is not a Republican (or a Democrat), right as he accepts the Republican nomination!  A majority of voters do not identify as Republican and a majority do not identify as Democrat.  This starts as a 3 point election either way.  They both have challenges holding their base and need to chip away a point here and there in the middle and around the edges. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 25, 2016, 02:23:33 PM
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 26, 2016, 09:14:11 AM
Amazing huh?  All we here from the Democrats now for the first time in many years, is how great America is.   :?
After bashing this country for years. 

After both bamas going around feeling ashamed of this country and apologizing around the globe.

Now , suddenly , now that they are terrified that Trump is registering with a lot of people , they praise America.

Love this one too as they try to keep up with DJT:

http://www.breitbart.com/california/2016/07/26/rep-linda-sanchez-hillary-clinton-is-a-badass/
Title: The clothing parade
Post by: ccp on July 26, 2016, 09:44:08 AM
If Republicans comment on Hill's outfits it is politically incorrect .  Otherwise it is wonderful .  Michelle always looks unbelievable and stunning in her designer clothes
(I thought Donald's suit was sharp and and handsome.) 


I bet the Trumps buy their own clothes.  I bet the bamas and the Clintons get gifts from the designers.  Like celebrities:

https://www.yahoo.com/style/michelle-obama-wears-christian-siriano-1480035383337014.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/fashion/melania-trumps-speech-may-not-have-been-original-but-her-dress-was.html?_r=0

This one was the best choice of all IMHO.  Now this is class (no pun intended)

http://www.vanityfair.com/style/2016/07/ivanka-trump-rnc-dress
Title: Re: The clothing parade, Michelle Obama
Post by: DougMacG on July 26, 2016, 10:06:07 AM
From a Dem point of view, Michelle is the star coming out of this convention.  No doubt she has the highest approval of all Dems.  If Hillary loses, that becomes immediately relevant.  I have posted previously I fear her politically more than Hillary.  Ironic how powerful Dem women make their rise off the accomplishments of a man.  Tonight's big speaker?  Bill Clinton.  Maybe they should suggest that strategy, marrying a rich and powerful man, to the little people.

Also in this election leaks is the fact that little guy Bernie, average contribution $27, was demanding a plane for his entourage for the entire campaign in exchange for his support. 

He doesn't see himself as a phony little guy; he sees himself as a former one.  Next up, book deals!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 26, 2016, 05:26:11 PM
Currently Trump has 23% of the Latino vote.  Romney had 27%.

I'm guessing the Latino vote will have a stronger than usual turnout.

Trump needs to start paying attention to this right now.
Title: Sen. Tim Kaine's Islamist ties
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 26, 2016, 05:37:15 PM
https://www.clarionproject.org/analysis/clinton-vp-pick-tim-kaines-islamist-ties
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on July 26, 2016, 08:48:46 PM
Currently Trump has 23% of the Latino vote.  Romney had 27%.

I'm guessing the Latino vote will have a stronger than usual turnout.

Trump needs to start paying attention to this right now.

That's right.  Maybe he can come up with something like the Rubio plan tempered by how it would have come out of a conservative Republican House.  Keep the people who have been here a period of time and are invested, not the criminals and freeloaders.  Let them pay a fine, earn an opening and agree to join us as law abiding, tax paying citizens.  Build a wall and start securing the country.

Everybody who is a legal, votiing Hispanic knows and likes somebody who isn't legal and faces deportation if we suddenly enforce our laws.

On the other hand, legal Hispanics are probably among those people that Democrats are worried are being under-counted as Trump supporters.  They don't want to tell their friends or strangers but they are among those whose jobs and pay are being crushed by the influx of illegals.  If a day came when we knew that every Hispanic who is here is legal, their own standing and confidence (and income) would rise.

23% versus 27% isn't that bad if it is being under-counted - except that Romney lost!  If Trump can take that proportion up to the mid 30s and win 10-15% of blacks instead of 2-5%, this is whole new ballgame.  And if he can't make progress into traditional Democratic groups, he loses.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on July 27, 2016, 12:00:33 AM
Cruz can't win.....

"Trump has won at least 159 delegates in Tuesday's contests. John Kasich has picked up at least 73 delegates — most of them for winning Ohio — while Ted Cruz has won at least 24 and Marco Rubio will get at least four.

There are still 107 delegates left to be allocated.

The overall race for delegates:

Trump: 619.

Cruz: 394.

Rubio: 167.

Kasich: 136.

It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president."


The only way Cruz can even get on the ballot is for the RNC to steal the nomination from Trump, in which case.... the GOP will be sending a Clinton (God help us all), or a Communist (equally distasteful), to the Whitehouse.


I posted this a while ago. Trump will be the next president, or the GOP has to accept something even worse. The complete evisceration of the GOP party as we know it.

Pretty simple.

I hate being right and never listened too, but I'm used to it.

Here's another prediction:

Not only will Trump be the next president, but Sander's supporters (much more than the 10% reported in some polls), will be flocking to the Green Party (Jill Stein currently, unless Sanders rescinds his endorsement of Clinton, in which case, she'll cede the nomination to him) in droves. We will see three majority parties if Trump doesn't turn the States into a dictatorship, two election cycles from now.

With the difference bewteen Romney and Obama being 4,000,000 votes and Obama squeaking out the victory (assuming they didn't manipulate the vote *I'm pretty sure they did*), Clinton would have won this year in a 51/49 split. Now that she cannot count on Sander's supporters, some will vote for Trump, with a great number switching from blue to green.

Trump will win with 52% of the vote.

Clinton will get 44%.

The rest will be divided between Johnson and Stein, but with enough of an improvement to drive towards a three party political system.

It is noteable that the Democrats were busted with emails, but it is certain that the Republicans do it too, as mentioned by GM earlier, "The RNC will be more rigged than a North Korean" election and indeed, they tried.

This is my prediction. Clinton cannot win it. Trump will. Latinos in substantial numbers, mostly reside in states that are already blue. Having lived in Mexico in the status that I have here, I am priivy to certain things.... such as.... Latinos in the States won't admit it, but they report the majority of illegals there, they don't llike Mexicans taking what they view to be "their" jobs, and Mexicans in particular KNOW that the Mexican government helps illegals get there and the Mexicans in the States legally, have zero interest in seeing other Mexicans come other than immediate family members. O lot of them support Trump secretly.

You should see the line to get visas here. I'll take a picture of it tomorrow. Maybe GM can help me figure out how to post a photo of it.

By the way. The wife became a newscaster today for one of the national television stations. That will provide more insight no doubt.

The way it is.
Title: Sanders Supporters Leave DNC in Flocks
Post by: DDF on July 27, 2016, 08:28:06 AM
I think the fallout from Sanders being cheated will result in a substantially more than 10% (reported) of Sander's supporters leaving the DNC.

Of course the mainstream didn't cover this.

https://twitter.com/sci_solar/status/758198054449143808
Title: Kaine kissing up to Muslim Brotherhood
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 27, 2016, 09:24:12 AM
http://counterjihad.com/tim-kaine-promoted-group-federal-prosecutors-call-overt-arm-muslim-brotherhood
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 28, 2016, 04:34:24 AM
Dems tried to co- op the theme  that they are the party of *patriotism*

Including their conga line (using Mark L's characterization)  of pundits.  From Barack the not so great to the first "I am ashamed of this country" first lady, and Little Joe B who sat by for 8 yrs while his boss went around the globe apologizing and dividing us and giving up our sovereignty.

Clintons did this in '96 when suddenly the big government guy (Bill) gets up to the podium, and with a straight face states, "the era of big government is over".  Sadly it worked with the the crowd that votes for whoever says what sounds good on any given day.

This time we have a good bully pulpit in Trump.  Hopefully he can keep them from getting away with the last minute deception  though he is, as are all Republicans, fighting an antagonistic media.
Title: This man spoke at the Dem Convention
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 28, 2016, 07:14:53 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/26/islamic-radical-homosexuality-rejecting-convention/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Did Trump trap Hillary on deleted emails?
Post by: DougMacG on July 28, 2016, 12:39:23 PM
Trump said:

"I've never spoken to him. I don't know anything about him other than he will respect me," Trump said during a press conference this morning at his golf club in Doral, Florida. "I have nothing to do with Russia."

"By the way, if they hacked, they probably have her 33,000 emails. I hope they do," he continued. "They probably have her 33,000 emails that she lost and deleted."

"Now these are lying, bad people, folks," Trump said of the Clinton campaign. "These are bad, bad people and they're’ incompetent people."

“Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing."
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-spoken-vladimir-putin-urges-russian-president/story?id=40922483

Funny how the news sources omit half of the point he made, losing its meaning:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html?_r=0


The Hillary campaign responded:
"This has to be the first time that a major presidential candidate has actively encouraged a foreign power to conduct espionage against his political opponent. That’s not hyperbole, those are just the facts. This has gone from being a curiosity, and a matter of politics, to being a national security.",
http://thefederalist.com/2016/07/27/donald-trump-just-got-hillary-clinton-to-admit-her-e-mails-are-a-national-security-issue/

Oops, I thought these 33,000 emails were only about yoga and wedding plans, NOTHING to do with national security.  Otherwise they are under subpoena and evidence of obstruction, right?

As James Carville said:  “I suspect she didn't want Louie Gohmert (the oversight committee) rifling through her emails,”
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/carville-i-suspect-clinton-didnt-want-louie-gohmert-going-through-her-emails/
That's why she setup the private server.  If it was in fact secured, Russia and the rest of the hackers in the world won't have her emails.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 28, 2016, 01:49:18 PM
1) I'm NOT pleased with how he phrased this  :x :x :x

2) and WTF with making those comments about Crimea?
Title: Global Guerillas: Russian Interference in our election
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 29, 2016, 06:22:43 AM
The American Autumn
Posted: 28 Jul 2016 03:49 PM PDT

Some thinking you might find useful.  It might sound wild and remote, but we are in a wild and out of control year.  ANYTHING can happen.
A treasure trove of e-mail and voicemail messages from the Democratic National Committee has been leaked.  Here's what happened.

   The first installment of the leaked e-mails was released by Wikileaks at the start of the DNC convention.  More leaks have and will follow.

   The contents of the leak show a brazen attempt by the DNC to help Hillary win the primary.  It also shows Dem campaign staffers to have acted inappropriately and in a prejudiced manner.

   Based on forensic analysis of the leak, it appears that the Russian government is involved
The effects of the leak have been immediate and intense.

   The leak provided the confirmation to Sanders supporters that the primary was rigged against them.  This has led to intense protests both within and outside the convention.  This suggests that the Clinton campaign lost a large number of Bernie supporters forever.

   The media and the US government reaction to the leak has been aggressive.  They claim that the release is a brazen attempt by Putin to influence the US election by helping Trump win. There have been attempts by the media to tie Trump to Putin but those lack evidence of any connection.

   Further, now that the Russian have interfered in our election, it's possible that they will do again.  This could be done through more leaks or as Bruce Schneier has pointed out: a hack of poorly secured voting machines on election day. 
Where could this end up?  This is the interesting part.  This election isn't a normal election.  It is also a good demonstration of something the great scholar of warfare, Martin van Creveld said ~ if you fight barbarians long enough, you become a barbarian too.

   The Trumpification of the Establishment >>  Trump isn't running a campaign, he's running an open source insurgency (see my earlier article on this) that makes him nearly immune to personal attack, and it is working.  He has secured a whopping 7 points (47 to 40) lead over Clinton in a recent national poll by the LA Times/USC -- despite the fact that nearly EVERYONE in the media, academic, government, and political establishment is working against him.  This loss of control has infuriated the establishment, leading to increasing levels of paranoia, hyperbole, and anger (particularly in the media).  In short, the establishment is starting to act increasingly like Trump does -- exaggerating and amplifying everything.

   Intentional Electoral Disruption.   The potential threat of Russian hacking (voting machines, etc.) fits the scenario I outlined in my freakishly popular US Civil War article from earlier this year.  With the tension between the divisions in the country increasing rapidly as both sides amplify and exaggerate every event, any overt attempt to rig (through disruption or hacking) the outcome of the election could result in widespread violence and/or a national fracture.

   The Administrative 'Coup'.  Here's something that I didn't think possible until this week.  The Trumpified establishment might have found an avenue for disqualifying Trump as President:  Trump's rhetorical suggestion that Russian hackers should find Hillary's deleted e-mails.  This has led many people in the establishment to contend that Trump committed 'treason and is now a clear and present danger to the security of the US.'  This national security angle -- the overt interference by Russia in US governance -- could make it possible to block Trump as a candidate on national security grounds.
 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 29, 2016, 07:39:09 AM
 This loss of control has infuriated the establishment, leading to increasing levels of paranoia, hyperbole, and anger (particularly in the media).  In short, the establishment is starting to act increasingly like Trump does -- exaggerating and amplifying everything.   yup



despite the fact that nearly EVERYONE in the media, academic, government, and political establishment is working against him.   yup.

Based on forensic analysis of the leak, it appears that the Russian government is involved  --  Are we the public sure of this.  I mean who is saying this?   Forensic computer people hired by the DNC?

Who here honestly would not love to see the 33,000 emails that Hillary and her lawyers destroyed suddenly appear?  I sure would.   
Title: Hillary the Hawk
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 29, 2016, 10:44:22 AM
Of course I get the logic here, but a candidate asking a foreign power to intervene in our elections sets a REALLY bad precedent.  It would appear that Trump flapped his gums here AGAIN, without really thinking.  There are still plenty of seriously patriotic people still seriously pissed off over his calls for water boarding and more and killing the families of the enemy.   Remember the letter signed by many serious military people saying they would be forced to disobey and his comment in the debate "They'll do it because I said so?".   The four star Marine general who endorsed Hillary at the convention last night does , , ,

===============================

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/27/hillary-the-hawk-a-history-clinton-2016-military-intervention-libya-iraq-syria/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=Flashpoints
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 29, 2016, 11:49:30 AM
"Of course I get the logic here, but a candidate asking a foreign power to intervene in our elections sets a REALLY bad precedent. "

Well I would respond that a Secretary of State trading favors for cash is a rather bad precedent.  I would be in perfect favor if emails were released that prove beyond a reasonable doubt what we already can surmise from massive circumstantial evidence.

That a Democrat nominee was selling us out for cash while SoS is very worthy of an email dump.  THAT is treason. 
Frankly,  I don't care if it comes from Russia.

And Trump was not calling for a hack.  He was just saying if they already have the emails...........

Title: Re: Trump Didn't "Ask"
Post by: DDF on July 29, 2016, 12:33:57 PM
Trump didn't "ask" Russia to intervene in the elections.

He said; "“Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing."

That isn't "interveining." That is a truth that every American except those that have broken the law are interested in learning.

Also.... Mexico is actively campaigning against Trump, through Mexicans here and illegals in the States in an effort to sway Americans of Latino descent - we don't hear a peep in the news or here about that.

In closing, Trump's number of 47 to 40, is going to be Trump with 52% of the vote, Clinton will get 44%, based on the fact that Bernie was slightly behind Hillary with just under half the vote in polls before the emails were leaked.

It is obvious that not every Sander's voter will jump ship, but let's do some basic math for a moment... liberal polls have stated that they are likely to lose a mere 10% of Sander's supporters.

Obama had 66,000,000 voters
Romney had 61,000,000 voters (both figures rounded).
Voter turnout was at 126 million in 2012, down from the 131 million in the previous cycle. It stands to reason, with both HRC and Trump angering people severely, 131 million casting their ballots again is entirely reasonable and probable. I myself will be filling in an absentee ballot for Trump.
Most polls without any shenanigans show either party to be within a point or two (even today CNN admitted that "it was too close to call" in their poll, and we know how they do damage control for the Liberals so....

128/2 = 64 million (leaving Johnson and Stein out of it for the moment because we're factoring Sander's supporters). (Clinton 53.8 % Sanders 39.3 %) http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary (which is pretty liberal and they know what they like)
HRC gets 34.43 million
Sanders gets 29.568 million (roughly).

If the liberals are admitting to a 10% loss of supporters, that's 3 million votes.
If other sources are correct, it could easily be as much as 15 million.

Most Sander's supporters that have left are voting for Jill Stein. Others are voting for Trump, just because they hate being cheated out of their voice.

Either way, if the 2012 results hold true, even using their 10% number (and not counting any Sander's supporters voting for trump, here's what that looks like:

Clinton - 62,000,000
Trump - 61,000,000 (assuming the loss is only 10%, not counting any votes in Trump's favor, assuming that wikileaks doesn't blast the Dems again, and not factoring in a Stein vote in all 50 States).

If Clinton's loss is 50% (and many think it may be just that), still not counting any votes for Trump, this is what that looks like:

Trump - 61,000,000
Clinton - 51,220,000 (giving every single missing vote to either Stein or Johnson) = Trump at 47% of 128 million, Clinton at 40% of 128 million (GC's numbers broken down)

Delving deeper, we know that many Sander's voters won't actually jump ship. I think the actual number is closer to 30% (one in three voters for Sanders) Which means, 10 million voters will either vote for Trump, Stein, or Johnson. If we assign half to Stein, and split the rest between Trump and Johnson, here what it looks like in closing:

Trump - 63,500,000
Clinton - 55,640,000
Stein - 5,469,000 (counting her .5 million from 2012)
Johnson - 3,775,000 (counting the 1.27 mil he had from 2012)

I stated that Trump would get 52% of the vote. With 63.5 million and a voter turnout of 128 milion, he'd have to be at 66.56 million (well within what he could reach with Sanders bailouts).

I stated that Hillary would be at 44% of the vote or 56.32 million voters of 128 million. Based on Barracks numbers of 66,000,000 in 2012, and a 1/3 to 1/2 of Sander's voters jumping ship, the empress could easily find herself 15 million votes short, putting her as low as 51,000,000, well within the target I have proposed.

Needless to say, these aren't electoral college votes, nor are they swing state votes.

1. Most Latinos already reside in Blue states, BUT.... they aren't interested in seeing other Mexicans other than their immediate family come and take their jobs.
2. States that have been blue could go red because of this, with purple states having an even higher turnover.
3. Trump won't get the Black vote, but at 12%-15% (19 million votes) of the population, and most based in Blue states, he doesn't need it.

Basically what I've come up with.

EDIT: It is also my basis behind stating that after two election cycles, we will indeed have a third party. One can laugh off .5 million votes or even 1.7 million votes, but when those numbers rise into the millions of votes, people start getting put on state ballots and invited to debates.

Like the monkey said when the man cut off his tail with an axe, "it won't be long now."
Title: Negative View of Clinton / How They'd Vote
Post by: DDF on July 31, 2016, 02:46:55 AM
Democrats With A Negative View of Clinton - Source The Wall Street Journal https://www.facebook.com/mrjohnson1126/posts/10207205469595295

https://m.reddit.com/r/jillstein/comments/4v9o7t/here_comes_jill_in_the_polls_nbcwallstreet/


How they'd vote:

Donald Trump - 29%
Hillary Clinton - 27%
Jill Stein - 22%
Gary Johnson - 9%

There's obviously 13% missing somewhere, but if we take Clinton's 34.43 million (staunch supporters), and split Bernie's 29.568 million to the above poll stats, we get:

Trump - 8.57 million + 61,000,000 base (based off of 2012 numbers) 69.57 million 54% of 128 million voter base
Clinton - 7.98 million + 34,430,000 (her share of the Clinton/Sanders split *staunch base) 42.41 million 33%
Stein - 6.5 million + 500,000 (her 2012 results) 7 million 5.4%
Johnson - 2.66 million - 1,270,000 (his 2012 results) 3.93 million 3.07%

13% missing of ticked off Clinton supporter votes = 3.84 million... which could shun the vote, or be dispersed amongst any candidate. 3% (I'm thinking Clinton will actually get most of these 3.8, putting her close to the 44% I had stated).

Obviously, I could be completely wrong, but I want to see how close I am when this is all over. I know most head to head polls have Hillary favored, but those polls are junk, because the election will not be a head to head race. We'll see.

Edit: Adding some poll results. CNN having Trump favored by 5 points surprises me. http://www.electionprojection.com/latest-polls/national-presidential-polls-trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson-vs-stein.php

It is interesting to consider, in swing states : http://potus2016.org/swing-states-election-2016/

AZ, NM, CO, IA, WI, OH, PA, VA, NH, NC, GA, and FL....

That Sanders had huge support of 60% or more in states like Colorado and Wisconsin, winning both of those swing states and does surprisingly well against Clinton in several of the other swing states - 2016 primary race map - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#/media/File:Delegation_Vote,_2016_(Democratic_Party,_only_pledged_delegates).svg
carrying 30 to 40% of the vote in several of those states.

Sanders supporters don't even need to necessarily vote for Trump, Stein or Johnson. The mere act of staying home in several of these states, could floor Clinton fast.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on July 31, 2016, 08:32:47 AM
Spectacularly stupid, classless, and ungracious comments by Trump about the Muslim gold star mother not speaking while her husband spoke at the Dem Convention.   :x :x :x

On top of giving a plausible impression of looking like he is asking the Russians to meddle in our campaign, Trump seems determined to prove that the election is his to lose.

 :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x

Also, a bit more care in attacking Gen. Allen would have been nice-- especially when the Dems have the clip of him saying he "knows more than the generals" and of him touting the fact that he went to a military school.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/07/31/general-respond-to-trumps-criticism-of-u-s-attempts-to-combat-islamic-state/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%207-31-16%20FINAL&utm_term=Firewire
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on July 31, 2016, 12:21:43 PM
Spectacularly stupid, classless, and ungracious comments by Trump about the Muslim gold star mother not speaking while her husband spoke at the Dem Convention.   :x :x :x

On top of giving a plausible impression of looking like he is asking the Russians to meddle in our campaign, Trump seems determined to prove that the election is his to lose.

 :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x :x

Also, a bit more care in attacking Gen. Allen would have been nice-- especially when the Dems have the clip of him saying he "knows more than the generals" and of him touting the fact that he went to a military school.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/07/31/general-respond-to-trumps-criticism-of-u-s-attempts-to-combat-islamic-state/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Firewire%20-%20HORIZON%207-31-16%20FINAL&utm_term=Firewire


No one is more supportive that the miltary than I am.


"Allen said he doesn’t think he has to justify himself to Trump, who has never spent time in Afghanistan or Iraq and has never served in the military."

General Allen also said, “We trust her judgment,” that “We know that she as no other knows how to use all instruments of American power — not just the military — to keep us all safe and free," and “She has been training for this moment for decades,” he said. “In the Senate, she worked across the aisle to support wounded warriors and our families. As president, she'll reform the VA, not privatize it. And as commander in chief, she will defeat ISIS.”

A few thoughts about that:

1.) Was hiring Wasserman Schultz the same day she was caught rigging elections "good judgement?"

2.) When she has been caught time and time again, attempting to disarm the US populace, does she really care about freedom?? That's laughable.

3.) As Commander in Chief, "she will defeat ISIS?" The US has arguably the most powerful military in the world. Desert Storm started in 1990. 9/11 was in 2001. The most powerful military in the world, and 15 years later, we're still over there pussyfooting around.

No disrespect at all for the great sacrifice of everyone that served, but just like Obama didn't get Osama, the men on the ground did, Clinton won't ever defeat ISIS, because she lacks the stomach (as do most Americans) to do what is necessary to defeat an ideology.

To date, the British, Indian, Soviet, and American militaries have all tasted Afghani defeat. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12024253

The only way to combat an ideology where the target has no fear of death due to what will happen to them in the hereafter AND are aggresively seeking expansion, due to the commandments of their religion, is genocide.

I've said this for years in regards to Islam, Putin just said it last week (again), “I Swear If They Bomb Russia, In Half An Hour Every Muslim Will Die” - Vladimir Putin (It's hard to find a mainstream link to that), but it's certainly the general mentality, as noted in the Beslan event where, On the third day of the standoff, Russian security forces stormed the building with the use of tanks, incendiary rockets and other heavy weapons. At least 330 hostages were killed, including 186 children, with a significant number of people injured and reported missing.

Trump was wrong in his criticism of the general, but the general is endorsing a fraud (God knows why), and that makes him a target.

If anything, Trump should have blamed Obama and by association, Hillary, for lacking the stomach to do what it takes, causing even more of America's finest their lives. I'm not the only one that has stated this. I'm pretty sure Schwarzkopf, Powell and even Petraeus have said the same thing, asking for more troops and to change the rules of engagement.

I'll add, that I DO NOT agree with Muslims entering military service in MY country, and I don't care who likes it. Anyone that has an issue with that can refer to the Fort Hood attack, and others. CAIR states that the attack "was not in keeping with Muslim teachings."

People underestimate the amount of people that do not want Muslims in the country. A quick glance at the list of Muslim terrorist attacks on wiki (only compiling data since 1980), is a damning one. (they failed to put in a spreadsheet for ease of counting, so, I took the time to do that - we cannot count the total dead because they used number such as "100+" *a liberal tactic I'm sure*) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Islamist_terrorist_attacks

Between 1980 and December 2001 - 58 attacks against civilians attributed to Islam (4685 dead)
2002 - 43 (821 dead, 2897+ wounded)
2003 - 19 (418 dead, 2321+ wounded)
2004 - 25 (1066 dead, 4016+ wounded)
2005 - 16 (348 dead, 1857+ wounded)
2006 - 8 (319 dead, 981 wounded)
2007 - 6 (621 estimated dead, 1730 estimated wounded)
2008 - 7 (350+ dead, 362+ wounded)
2009 - 4 (58 dead, 87+ wounded)
2010 - 17 (673+ dead, >1794 wounded)
2011 - 19 (765+ dead, 1700+ wounded)
2012 - 13 (788+ dead, 1961+ wounded)
2013 - 19 (768+ dead, 1839+ wounded)
2014 - 35 (2120+ dead, 1046+ wounded)
2015 - 116 (that isn't a typo and it's wikipedia's numbers) ODDLY this website, http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/attacks/attacks.aspx?Yr=2015 , took the time to do exactly what I'm doing right now and came up with DRASTICALLY different numbers, and not in Allah's favor.

2016 - 39 in the first half of the year. (Wikipedia didn't total them, so I did, and they have 1055+ dead so far, and who knows how many wounded).

I'll leave out the fact that those are only published incidents and numbers and anyone that has ever served in the military or police knows what that means.

Donald Trump is completely correct in his thoughts about Islam, he should never apologize for it, and people can say what they want, but when you have conservatively, 116 terror attacks in a year, 1000's of civilians dead, and Christians and Jews are nowhere to be found on that list in the quantities one certain religion is, people can phrase it any politically correct way they want... I won't.

America hasn't won the war on terror by design, and they know it. They are DYING to give the states away because it is one of two hurdles to a liberally run world government, brought to you by the central banking system.

My personal experience? We don't have any misconceptions about or enemies here. Obama, Feinstein, and Clinton would have us inviting them into our homes.... hell, they already send them weapons, why not feed them too?

Clinton and anyone supporting her, deserves every bad thing that is said about them.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on July 31, 2016, 01:37:23 PM
"Allen said he doesn’t think he has to justify himself to Trump, who has never spent time in Afghanistan or Iraq and has never served in the military."

I guess General Allen has no problem with Bill Clinton being a draft dodger.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on July 31, 2016, 06:08:42 PM
"Allen said he doesn’t think he has to justify himself to Trump, who has never spent time in Afghanistan or Iraq and has never served in the military."

I guess General Allen has no problem with Bill Clinton being a draft dodger.

Hillary never served either, but General Allen seems to think that "as commander in chief, she will defeat ISIS."

It must be all that experience she has landing under sniper fire is Bosnia.

 :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 07:04:19 AM
The forever election. In a headline-busting interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Republican nominee for president Donald Trump appeared unaware that Russian troops have been fighting in Ukraine. Speaking of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said, “he’s not going into Ukraine, O.K., just so you understand. He’s not going to go into Ukraine, all right? You can mark it down.” When Stephanopoulos pointed out that there are indeed Russian troops in Ukraine, Trump admitted, “OK, well, he’s there in a certain way.”

Trump was also non-committal over what to do about Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, which spurred the international community to slap economic sanctions on Moscow. "I'm going to take a look at it," Trump said. "But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.” The comments come amid increasing scrutiny over business ties many in the Trump camp have in Russia.

In a part of the interview that isn’t receiving as much attention, Trump also went after the military leadership at the Pentagon. “The generals certainly aren't doing very well right now,” he said. And when it comes to retired Marine Corps General John Allen, who harshly criticized Trump at last week’s Democratic convention, Trump said, “after I saw he was on ranting and raving about me, who he never met, I checked up. Guess what? They were not so happy with him. He didn't beat ISIS. He didn't beat ISIS. He didn't do well with ISIS.”

Old boss. Not everyone is happy at the political turn that Allen, and Trump surrogate retired General Mike Flynn have taken. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Martin Dempsey, wrote a letter to the Washington Post over the weekend, saying, “retired Marine Gen. John Allen and retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn weren’t introduced at the Democratic and Republican conventions, respectively, as “John” and “Mike.” They  were introduced as generals. As generals, they have an obligation to uphold our apolitical traditions. They have just made the task of their successors — who continue to serve in uniform and are accountable for our security — more complicated. It was a mistake for them to participate as they did. It was a mistake for our presidential candidates to ask them to do so.”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 01, 2016, 07:56:43 AM
Nearly 100% of the time I turn on the Clinton news network they are bashing Trump.  Every time.  Wall to wall.

Suddenly the father of the Medal of Honor winner is their hero.  They think they finally found an opening to nail Trump.

Hillary back up in the polls.  The whoever says the nicest things on any given day voters are back flocking for her.

The Trump is evil and unprepared theme and the last minute theme of how great America is worked.  Trump is right in a way in not showing his cards to the Clinton mob.  They always steal whatever sounds good and pretend they were doing it all along.  Brock hides his real feelings and goals doing the same thing.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 08:38:28 AM
Worth noting:

Not much attention was given to Hillary in effect calling Gold Star mother Pat Smith a liar for calling her out on what she (Hillary) said over her (PS's) son's coffin.

For all the calls about Trump's tax records, hardly any for the records of the Clinton Slush Fund Foundation.

As for Putin/Russia-- Trump, where's the attention on the bribes Hillary has accepted (e.g. for 20% of US's uranium).  I gather there is a piece in today's WSJ by , , , Schweitzer (sp?) about Russian money to Hillary.  Can someone find it and post it here please?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 01, 2016, 09:16:18 AM
Well there is this headlining Breitbart today on Podesta.  Another syncophant.  He broke laws by FAILING to disclose.  No biggie.  As Crafty would point out,  "lets move along folks nothing here"

Yet all we hear is Donald Trump.  And what about Clintons setting up the Russians to get control of 20% of our uranium.   NO MSM outrage.  And we know why.  The MSM is rigged.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/01/report-hillary-clintons-campaign-mgr-john-podesta-sat-board-company-bagged-35-million-putin-connected-russian-govt-fund-2/
Title: Who is Khizr Khan?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 09:23:26 AM
http://shoebat.com/2016/07/31/what-the-media-is-not-telling-you-about-the-muslim-who-attacked-donald-trump-he-is-a-muslim-brotherhood-agent-who-wants-to-advance-sharia-law-and-bring-muslims-into-the-united-states/
Title: Open Letter to Khizr Khan
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 12:21:55 PM
https://globalriskinfo.com/2016/07/31/an-open-letter-to-khizr-khan/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 01, 2016, 12:25:47 PM
Does it matter whether Mr. Trump has sacrificed “…nothing and no one?”…has Ms. Clinton “..sacrificed” for this nation?  How about Mr. Obama? 

And I would add , Bill dodged the draft.  I am not aware that Trump did.
And as an American I reserve the right to have our country defend itself against Muslim terrorists, who by the way killed your son.
Title: Who is Khizr Khan? 2.0
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 12:33:00 PM
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/khan-specializes-in-visa-programs-accused-of-selling-u.s.-citizenship/article/2598279

No hijab for the Mrs when posing with Baraq:
http://www.cristyli.com/?p=36171

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/01/clinton-cash-khizr-khans-deep-legal-financial-connections-saudi-arabia-hillarys-clinton-foundation-connect-terror-immigration-email-scandals/


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 01, 2016, 01:34:05 PM
Yes.  I am getting tired of this phony "shaming" any Republican that can be construed to be politically incorrect.  Why is she not wearing her sheet over her head with Obama?
But makes a point of it at the DNC?

And who killed her son?  It wasn't Americans.  It wasn't Jews or Christians or Hindus or Buddhists.   Why no outrage over that?

Lets get some people on the airwaves beside a few talk radio hosts who can point out the MSM hypocracy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Kahn
Post by: DougMacG on August 01, 2016, 07:06:11 PM
Once again, we the people are chasing shiny objects,  not discussing or debating crucial issues

"...who killed her son?"

Wouldn't you think that is the question?  Secondly, who squandered the gains his son fought for?  Why?

“If it was up to Donald Trump, he never would have been in America,” said Khan

Actually, Trump made a (different) proposal in 2015.  Khan's son died in 2004.  The statement is not exactly true.  On goes the smear.

Trump said:  "...radical Islamist terrorists who killed him and the attempts by such people to enter the United States and do us further harm represent the real problem."

   - True and something current leadership and their successors are unable to say.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/289932-khizer-khan-was-tr,icked-into-smearing-donald-trump

"he [Trump] doesn’t have the sense to come in out of the rain. The Republicans sent an amateur to do battle with professionals, and so far, the results aren’t pretty."
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/08/amateur-hour-in-the-presidential-race.php
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 01, 2016, 07:28:32 PM
"The Republicans sent an amateur to do battle with professionals, and so far, the results aren’t pretty."

Yes .  He is fighting the entire MSM with tweeting whatever the first thought that pops into his head is.
 :cry:
Title: Pat Caddell: Reuters cooked poll results
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 01, 2016, 10:47:08 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/01/pat-caddell-on-cooked-reuters-poll-never-in-my-life-have-i-seen-a-news-organization-do-something-so-dishonest/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Swing District Omaha and the 269-269 electoral tie
Post by: DougMacG on August 02, 2016, 08:16:19 AM
Red state splits its electoral votes by congressional district, as does Maine.  Obama won Omaha.  Hillary wants it.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/austin-ostro/the-electoral-tie-what-a-_b_2002964.html

The tie goes to the House of Representatives.  I'm hoping they pick neither.  )
Title: Re: Pat Caddell: Reuters cooked poll results
Post by: DDF on August 02, 2016, 11:12:15 AM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/01/pat-caddell-on-cooked-reuters-poll-never-in-my-life-have-i-seen-a-news-organization-do-something-so-dishonest/

That's a given. I'm shocked there's even a story admitting it.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 02, 2016, 12:01:57 PM
finally someone from National Review besides VDH who gets it.  Better late then never.  Unfortunately we didn't have the perfect candidate who got it but the fight is for keeps now.

And screw Obama asking Republicans to renounce Trump as unfit for office.  Not until he tells the truth that Hillary is unfit.  God is he a scumbag.  Standing there telling us he knows no better candidate in history more qualified then her.   A serial felon.   We must not let him, her and the rest of the LEFT get away with this.


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/438590/hillary-clinton-socialism-transforming-america
Title: Khan deletes his firm' website from the internet
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2016, 03:03:25 PM
DDF: Though a Dem pollster, Pat Caddell has shown integrity of this sort more than once.
=====================================================



Khizr Khan, the Muslim Gold Star father that Democrats and their allies media wide have been using to hammer GOP presidential nominee Donald J. Trump, has deleted his law firm’s website from the Internet.

This development is significant, as his website proved—as Breitbart News and others have reported—that he financially benefits from unfettered pay-to-play Muslim migration into America.

A snapshot of his now deleted website, as captured by the Wayback Machine which takes snapshots archiving various websites on the Internet, shows that as a lawyer he engages in procurement of EB5 immigration visas and other “Related Immigration Services.”

Video: Clinton speaks out against call to register Muslims
The website is completely removed from the Internet, and instead directs visitors to the URL at which it once was to a page parking the URL run by GoDaddy.

The EB5 program, which helps wealthy foreigners usually from the Middle East essentially buy their way into America, is fraught with corruption. U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has detailed such corruption over the past several months, and in February issued a blistering statement about it.

“Maybe it is only here on Capitol Hill—on this island surrounded by reality—that we can choose to plug our ears and refuse to listen to commonly accepted facts,” Grassley said in a statement earlier this year. “The Government Accountability Office, the media, industry experts, members of congress, and federal agency officials, have concurred that the program is a serious problem with serious vulnerabilities. Allow me to mention a few of the flaws.”

Grassley’s statement even noted that the program Khan celebrated on his website has posed national security risks.

“There are also classified reports that detail the national security, fraud and abuse. Our committee has received numerous briefings and classified documents to show this side of the story,” Grassley said in the early February 2016 statement. “The enforcement arm of the Department of Homeland Security wrote an internal memo that raises significant concerns about the program. One section of the memo outlines concerns that it could be used by Iranian operatives to infiltrate the United States. The memo identifies seven main areas of program vulnerability, including the export of sensitive technology, economic espionage, use by foreign government agents and terrorists, investment fraud, illicit finance and money laundering.”

Khan spoke alongside his wife Ghazala Khan at the Democratic National Convention last week in Philadelphia, and they were honoring their son U.S. Army Captain Humayun Khan—a hero who lost his life to a suicide bomber in Iraq in 2004. On behalf of Hillary Rodham Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, Khizr Khan ripped into Donald Trump’s policies on immigration—specifically bashing his plan to bar Muslim migration from regions afflicted with rampant terrorism into America temporarily until the United States can figure out what’s going on.

Khan even brought out a pocket Constitution, claiming inaccurately that Trump’s plans were unconstitutional. That’s not true, as Congress has already granted such power to the president under the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952—allowing the president to bar migration of any alien or class of aliens the president sees as a threat to the United States for any reason at any time. Such a class of aliens could be Muslims, or it could be people from a specific region of the world, or any other class—such as someone’s race, weight, height, age, national origin, religion, or anything else.

The media, along with Hillary Clinton and her supporters throughout the Democratic Party establishment, has pushed the line of attack against Trump for days. Now on Tuesday, President Barack Obama has said that Trump is “unfit” to serve as President over the matter. Even a group of anti-Trump congressional Republicans has gone after Trump on the matter.
But as Breitbart News and other new media have exposed Khan’s various deep political and legal connections to the Clintons—and to Muslim migration—the attack line has crumbled. Now, with Khan deleting his website in an apparent effort to hide his biographical information, the attack is falling apart even more.

What’s perhaps interesting is that also on this website that he has now deleted, Khan revealed that he spent nearly a decade working for the mega-D.C. law firm Hogan & Hartson—now Hogan Lovells LLP—which connects him directly with the government of Saudi Arabia and the Clintons themselves. Saudi Arabia, which has retained the firm that Khan worked at for years, has donated between $10 million and $25 million to the Clinton Foundation. Hillary Clinton, despite the repeated urging of Trump, has refused to return the Clinton Cash money to the Saudis. What’s more, Hogan Lovells also did Hillary Clinton’s taxes—and helped acquire the patents for parts of the technology she used in crafting her illicit home-brew email server that the FBI director called “extremely careless” in handling classified information.

What’s more, the entire mainstream has proven negligence with regard to this matter as none of them even thought to look into this Khan guy’s law practice before bandying him about as some kind of magic elixir that cures the country of Trump.

http://kmkhanlaw.com/?reqp=1&reqr=

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/01/clinton-cash-khizr-khans-deep-legal-financial-connections-saudi-arabia-hillarys-clinton-foundation-connect-terror-immigration-email-scandals/

https://web.archive.org/web/20160802121411/http:/www.kmkhanlaw.com/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/06/14/humiliation-huffington-post-doesnt-know-a-president-trump-can-halt-muslim-immigration-without-congress/


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 02, 2016, 03:15:47 PM
If only Trump would let surrogates hit the airwaves with this rather than shooting from the hip like he does.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2016, 04:59:28 PM
He should hire me.
Title: A Valid Thought
Post by: DDF on August 02, 2016, 09:49:54 PM
I haven't seen it mentioned here, so I'll bring it up.

Suppose that Russia has hacked Clinton. Suppose that they have something that Hillary really doesn't want out there, and that they use this to their advantage? How can anyone trust her with the presidency?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 02, 2016, 10:50:11 PM
Actually we here and secret lurker Donald have brought this up  :lol:
Title: Re: A Valid Thought
Post by: DDF on August 02, 2016, 10:51:45 PM
I haven't seen it mentioned here, so I'll bring it up.

Suppose that Russia has hacked Clinton. Suppose that they have something that Hillary really doesn't want out there, and that they use this to their advantage? How can anyone trust her with the presidency?

And, as soon as I posted this on facebook, they locked me out of my account for having @malware@ on my computer and to "fix" my computer, but my wife can get into her account no problem.

I thought, I can trust facebook, right? But I'm still not letting them into my computer to "fix" things.... so I investigate....

Facebook has recently been found to censor wikilinks as malware, but come to find, several users are having the same problem. How odd...

https://www.facebook.com/notes/lawrence-bee/really-i-could-not-make-this-shit-up-by-larry-alger-7-9-16/125716004527528

https://www.facebook.com/notes/facebook-security/malware-checkpoint-for-facebook/10150902333195766/

Zuckerberg wouldn't ever use his liberal monopoly to do his part to help Clinton, would he?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on August 02, 2016, 10:52:42 PM
Actually we here and secret lurker Donald have brought this up  :lol:

All the better. Completely valid.
Title: Repubs for Hillary
Post by: ccp on August 04, 2016, 12:46:33 PM
Rising star Dan Bongino from Levin's Conservative Review website.  There is a very short ad at the beginning but Dan's video is worth the wait:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/08/republicans-for-hillary-are-you-clinically-insane
Title: My response to a passage in an NRO article
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 04, 2016, 06:59:39 PM
"He was criticized by the parents of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq and responded that they were really upset because he plans to keep Islamic terrorists out of the country — “I think that’s what bothered Mr. Khan,” Trump insisted. These are the parents of a fallen American soldier, and Trump accuses them of being enablers of Islamic terrorism based on the fact that they have criticized him."

Sorry, but NRO has allowed it hatred of Trump get in the way of its integrity. This is not even close.

Yes, there may be overheated rhetoric in this URLs but cumulatively they tell quite a different story:

http://shoebat.com/.../what-the-media-is-not-telling-you.../

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/khan.../article/2598279

No hijab for the Mrs when posing with Baraq:
http://www.cristyli.com/?p=36171

http://www.breitbart.com/.../clinton-cash-khizr-khans.../

http://kmkhanlaw.com/?reqp=1&reqr=

https://web.archive.org/.../2016.../http:/www.kmkhanlaw.com/

http://www.breitbart.com/.../humiliation-huffington-post.../

Summarizing: The man advocates Sharia. In my considered opinion this is not only religion, but politics i.e. it is the advocacy of theocracy and as such is contrary to the American Creed and our Constitution. This may be a legal to hold opinion, but it is not a good American one.

He is/was an attorney for a law firm that was a registered agent for Saudi Arabia. He made his living on getting visas for Muslims getting into the US. Trump's proposed moratorium is a direct hit on his livelihood.

As an attorney, particular an expert in visas for Middle Eastern people, he must know quite well that the American president by law can Constitutionally exclude such people. http://www.breitbart.com/.../humiliation-huffington-post.../

Thus his whole speech is a fraud and a lie. One may agree or disagree with Trump's call for a moratorium, but no legally literate person can call his idea unconstitutional.

The plan was to conflate the natural sympathy for the parents of the fallen (and his son's rep with comrades in arms was good) into sabotaging what was developing into one of Trump's most effective and most relevant points: That just as FBI Director Comey and other top officials have plainly stated the enemy is looking to use the refugees to place 5th column enemy agents/soldiers/spies in our homeland and that there is absolutely no meaningful way to vet the refugees.

When Obama brings in 10,000 and Hillary looks to expand that by 550% that is either madness, treason, or sheer lust for political power by continuing to dilute the American population with people who do not belief in America as part of a larger plan to "fundamentally transform America.

Is Trump a profound ass for what he said about the mother? Absolutely-- though the generality is not without merit. But that is far from reason to move America towards the giant fustercluck in which Europe now finds itself.

America's correct response is exactly what Trump has proposed: Actively support refugee camps there.
Title: Re: My response to a passage in an NRO article
Post by: DougMacG on August 04, 2016, 08:48:44 PM
"He was criticized by the parents of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq and responded that they were really upset because he plans to keep Islamic terrorists out of the country — “I think that’s what bothered Mr. Khan,” Trump insisted. These are the parents of a fallen American soldier, and Trump accuses them of being enablers of Islamic terrorism based on the fact that they have criticized him."

Sorry, but NRO has allowed it hatred of Trump get in the way of its integrity. This is not even close.

Yes, there may be overheated rhetoric in this URLs but cumulatively they tell quite a different story:

http://shoebat.com/.../what-the-media-is-not-telling-you.../

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/khan.../article/2598279

No hijab for the Mrs when posing with Baraq:
http://www.cristyli.com/?p=36171

http://www.breitbart.com/.../clinton-cash-khizr-khans.../

http://kmkhanlaw.com/?reqp=1&reqr=

https://web.archive.org/.../2016.../http:/www.kmkhanlaw.com/

http://www.breitbart.com/.../humiliation-huffington-post.../

Summarizing: The man advocates Sharia. In my considered opinion this is not only religion, but politics i.e. it is the advocacy of theocracy and as such is contrary to the American Creed and our Constitution. This may be a legal to hold opinion, but it is not a good American one.

He is/was an attorney for a law firm that was a registered agent for Saudi Arabia. He made his living on getting visas for Muslims getting into the US. Trump's proposed moratorium is a direct hit on his livelihood.

As an attorney, particular an expert in visas for Middle Eastern people, he must know quite well that the American president by law can Constitutionally exclude such people. http://www.breitbart.com/.../humiliation-huffington-post.../

Thus his whole speech is a fraud and a lie. One may agree or disagree with Trump's call for a moratorium, but no legally literate person can call his idea unconstitutional.

The plan was to conflate the natural sympathy for the parents of the fallen (and his son's rep with comrades in arms was good) into sabotaging what was developing into one of Trump's most effective and most relevant points: That just as FBI Director Comey and other top officials have plainly stated the enemy is looking to use the refugees to place 5th column enemy agents/soldiers/spies in our homeland and that there is absolutely no meaningful way to vet the refugees.

When Obama brings in 10,000 and Hillary looks to expand that by 550% that is either madness, treason, or sheer lust for political power by continuing to dilute the American population with people who do not belief in America as part of a larger plan to "fundamentally transform America.

Is Trump a profound ass for what he said about the mother? Absolutely-- though the generality is not without merit. But that is far from reason to move America towards the giant fustercluck in which Europe now finds itself.

America's correct response is exactly what Trump has proposed: Actively support refugee camps there.

Well stated.  Clumsy is the crime.  Debate the issue honestly and Trump wins.  Trump didn't pick this fight but he chose to fight back and screwed it up.  He should have let the speech go by largely unnoticed and should be calling Hillary out from behind her surrogates to debate her failures.  This guy was being a political activist / political hack, but trying to take him out was a major miscalculation.  It cost Trump crucial momentum and time.  At the moment this broke people were talking about what a weak speech Hillary gave and the exposed DNC collusion. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 05, 2016, 04:31:07 PM
http://priceonomics.com/why-is-hillary-clinton-the-favorite-because-of/
Title: Dick Morris : "rigged" debate commsion
Post by: ccp on August 05, 2016, 06:28:36 PM
Dick dispels the supposed impartial nature of the debate "commission".  True the days were picked a year ago but there is more than meets the eye.   And as always Republicans always come up with the short stick.

So why can't the election board switch the days of the debates?  What is the big deal?  Are the days carved in Mt Rushmore?   

No.  The entire debate commission board is anti Trump and a heavy in Clintonites. 

http://www.dickmorris.com/rigged-trump-presidential-debate-commission/

And I have additional questions.  Who decides that the debates have to be at colleges?   Why do we always have to have a live audience?

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 07, 2016, 06:38:41 AM
http://pamelageller.com/2016/08/boom-clintons-vaunted-lead-over-trump-suddenly-evaporates.html/
Title: Black argument for Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 07, 2016, 06:52:43 AM
https://www.facebook.com/masonweaver/videos/10209645300386196/
Title: Wikileaks 2016 Presidential Poll
Post by: DDF on August 07, 2016, 02:42:17 PM
Wikileaks performed a poll with more than 117,000 people participating.

"While Trump scored 50% of the overall vote, Clinton won just 22%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein followed Clinton with 16% of the vote, and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson came last with 12%."

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/07/30/wikileaks-poll-117000-votes-trump-wins-with-50/

EDIT: The date from this poll is July 30th, 2016. Still, it speaks volumes as to what people think. Thus far, I am not aware of any media poll having Trump ahead by 28%, much less with the millenial +(wiki audience) crowd.
Title: Orlando Jihadi's Daddy 2.0
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 09, 2016, 08:15:33 AM
The Orlando Shooter’s Father, the Taliban Fan, Is Behind Hillary . . . Literally

Each morning, you think 2016 election cycle can’t get any more surreal, or bizarre, or disconcerting . . . the news cycle jostles you awake and says, “Oh yeah? Get a load of this!”

What the heck? I mean, really, what the heck?

Clinton held a rally in Kissimmee, FL, a suburb of Orlando, the site of June’s terror attack. She began her rally by paying tribute to those who were slaughtered by Mateen while the terrorist’s father, Seddique Mateen, sat right behind her, prominently displayed and in full view of the camera.

There he is, right behind Hillary’s shoulder:
 
This is no mistaken identity; Mateen spoke to reporters afterwards about why he wants Hillary Clinton to be president. He showed reporters a sign he made for her, declaring she was “good for national security.”
 
Yes, that father:

Florida corporations created by [the shooter’s father] Seddique Mateen, the Provisional Government of Afghanistan Corp. and The Durand Jirga Inc., are related to that border dispute.

And Seddique Mateen announced his candidacy for president of Afghanistan in 2015, one of several YouTube videos posted by Mateen related to the issue. A Washington Post translation of one video has the elder Mateen praising the Taliban: “Our brothers in Waziristan, our warrior brothers in (the) Taliban movement and national Afghan Taliban are rising up,” he said.

The obvious rejoinder: “She says she’ll keep the pro-Taliban folks who are close to terrorists out of our country . . . but she can’t even keep them out of her own rallies. Maybe she should try building a wall.”

Donald Trump might be the luckiest son-of-a-gun to ever run for president. If he can’t make some noise over this and make up five points quick, he should just close up shop and let Pence-Cruz handle it from here.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 09, 2016, 08:28:09 AM
Right .   A "gold star" father who can say whatever he wants and it is gospel that can't be questioned"

He denies Sharia law exists, was a supporter of Clintons for years, and is a immigration lawyer for God's sake.

So what label do you call the father of a murderer?

And the murder's old man  turns it around and turn the travesty  into a political *gun issue!!*  :x

You won't hear much of this on CNN which has become a 24 x 7 vehicle for the clinton campaign and 24 x bashes Trump.  Nearly every time I turn past the station they are bashing Trump.  I have never seen anything  like it .......

How ironic.  The Republicans done in by a Muslim immigrant lawyer for their candidate trying to protect us from Muslim murderers.  I don't see this creepy "gold dad" calling out the murderers.  
And now this "dad" being used by the DNC to promote gun laws?

Again our country is being given away for for votes to the world.

 :x :x :x
Title: Re: Orlando Jihadi's Daddy 2.0
Post by: DougMacG on August 09, 2016, 08:48:29 AM
Yes, surreal.  They think the shooter is one of the victims and the family of the shooter too.  I have no idea if this parent is at all to blame for the actions of his adult kid.  He is just one person who could have, should have known and didn't stop it.

Gun issue, good grief.  That's what mass murderers do is check the local gun ordinance before shooting and check federal gun laws before buying.  Gun laws suppress our ability to stop these shootings.  What about pipe bombs, IEDs, poison gas, and driving a semi truck into a crowd.  Sue Cummings diesel?
Title: Spemngler defends Trump on foreign affairs
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 10, 2016, 09:15:01 AM
http://atimes.com/2016/08/trump-lacks-experience-but-his-detractors-lack-common-sense/
Title: Re: Spemngler defends Trump on foreign affairs
Post by: bigdog on August 10, 2016, 10:16:35 AM
http://atimes.com/2016/08/trump-lacks-experience-but-his-detractors-lack-common-sense/

http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/averting-the-coming-republican-foreign-policy-brain-drain/

"...Republicans stand to lose a generation of intellectuals and practitioners skilled in global affairs. Given the massive loss of the best and brightest, the future portends a steep brain drain within Republican foreign policy establishment, for at least three reasons."

Title: '08 Biden threatens Obama; 2008 Hillary reminds voters of Bobby Kennedy killed
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 10, 2016, 11:08:47 AM
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/video-biden-threatens-shoot-obama-tries-take-guns/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd5_jRFdQ-I

Title: ABC News Live Poll
Post by: DDF on August 12, 2016, 08:24:26 AM
I'm certain that ABC leans left, so where CNN and others are getting their numbers in favor of Hillary, I'd like to know.

Who are you Voting for?

Donald Trump (70%, 40,817 Votes)
Jill Stein (18%, 10,247 Votes)
Gary Johnson (7%, 4,176 Votes)
Hillary Clinton (5%, 2,780 Votes)
Darrell Castle (0%, 152 Votes)
Total Voters: 58,172

http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/

This obviously won't account for voters who get "cold feet" come election day, but none of the other polls stating that Hillary is ahead account for that either. Polls can also easily be manipulated by only calling a small number of voters per state, and then calling in the conservative or liberal district one chooses. Online polls are open to everyone.

Just putting this here for everyone's entertainment.
Title: At this point in 1988 Dukakis was up by 17
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 12, 2016, 08:33:18 PM
https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/08/10/fyi-gallup-had-dukakis-up-by-17-at-this-point-in-1988/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 13, 2016, 09:47:27 AM
"https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/08/10/fyi-gallup-had-dukakis-up-by-17-at-this-point-in-1988/"

Thanks CD.  This gives me vague and distant hope for a "miracle".

 I fear GM was right all along.  I am resigning myself to the worst.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 13, 2016, 10:44:02 AM
"https://pjmedia.com/election/2016/08/10/fyi-gallup-had-dukakis-up-by-17-at-this-point-in-1988/"

Thanks CD.  This gives me vague and distant hope for a "miracle".

 I fear GM was right all along.  I am resigning myself to the worst.

This is different than 1988, but anything is possible.  Trump seems to be digging himself a hole he can't climb out of.  Needs to win most traditional swing states and needs to bring new states into play.  He is failing and flailing mostly at this point.  It's still August, but impressions are being made that he isn't a serious contender for President in the eyes of too many people.  Very hard to reverse that but he doesn't need to change that many minds.  She can't hit 50% either and is loaded with flaws and problems.

This should be a simple choice between policies leading to economic growth and prosperity versus stagnation, and secure our country and our borders versus letting terrorists multiply and flourish.  Instead he makes it about him and not everyone is impressed.
Title: Robert Spencer: Trump Essentially Correct Regarding ISIS "Founders"...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 13, 2016, 08:27:58 PM
https://www.jihadwatch.org/2016/08/media-in-frenzy-over-trump-claim-that-obama-and-hillary-founded-isis-ignores-dia-document-showing-how-they-did
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 14, 2016, 08:57:33 AM
"This is different than 1988, but anything is possible.  Trump seems to be digging himself a hole he can't climb out of.  Needs to win most traditional swing states and needs to bring new states into play.  He is failing and flailing mostly at this point.  It's still August, but impressions are being made that he isn't a serious contender for President in the eyes of too many people.  Very hard to reverse that but he doesn't need to change that many minds.  She can't hit 50% either and is loaded with flaws and problems.

This should be a simple choice between policies leading to economic growth and prosperity versus stagnation, and secure our country and our borders versus letting terrorists multiply and flourish.  Instead he makes it about him and not everyone is impressed."

Doug you were right too.   The question in 1988 was policy.   Now it is two issues :

Policy and CHARACTER.   I was always concerned about Trump's past character and feared that he could bring down the whole ship.  Yet he was saying things I liked that no other candidate was saying as effectively.  So I gave him some support knowing it is risk.   I still would but with less gusto now.

He is proving he does not really have the insight and adaptability to change .  His answer to every thing is to simply yell louder and harder back to confrontation.  He is still doing it.  He is unable to comprehend that kind of campaign is not working with the swing voters.  He refuses to to take responsibility for his own gaffs and keeps turning it around and doing things like "threatening" to  ban the NYT and basically making himself look even less appealing to independents.

It is remarkable that that his character is even more frightening to swing voters then a known corrupt liar but he obviously comes off as more dangerous.

I don't see how he can turn this around with just policy pronouncements.   His character is out there front and center for 40 yrs.  What is surprising to me is that I could forget the past but he has proven he cannot change and be more "presidential".  Someone who is as smart as he is - well, that is surprising to me.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 14, 2016, 10:16:58 AM
http://ijr.com/2016/07/657469-damning-emails-show-anti-trump-protests-were-fueled-by-dnc/?utm_campaign=politics_newlikegate&utm_content=health&utm_medium=promoted&utm_source=facebook&utm_term=ijpolitics
Title: Brandon Smith: Trump Will Win The Election, but He Can't Save The Economy...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 15, 2016, 02:49:16 PM
2016 Will End With Economic Instability And A Trump Presidency

Wednesday, 10 August 2016 02:19 Brandon Smith

Political and economic events tend to swing like a pendulum, or move like the tides.  What you think you know today, according to the mainstream mood, can swiftly change tomorrow.  Sometimes this is mere random coincidence, but often it is engineered by the powers that be.  When discerning coming trends, the only assumption I recommend people operate on is that the globalists will play the long game; the short game is only relevant as far as it serves the long game.

What is the long game?  The globalists have openly admitted their goal in numerous mainstream publications, but my favorite example is the January 1988 issue of the Rothschild run magazine The Economist.  The issue pronounces boldly that investors should “get ready for a global currency” by 2018.  I examine this issue in detail in my article The Economic End Game Explained.

The Economist article mentions the sacrifice of “some” economic sovereignty of nation states, the end of the dollar’s world reserve status and the rise of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket currency mechanism as a “bridge” to a single global currency.  None of these changes can be accomplished without certain parts of the world suffering severe financial instability first.  Not only is this a mathematical inevitability, such crisis is also a useful tool for elitists to mold the public’s collective psychology.

So, let’s make this crystal clear — the long game is the total and OPEN centralization of economic and geopolitical power into the hands of a select few financial elites.  Not the pulling of strings behind the curtain.  Not shadow governance.  OPEN governance of the world by the elites, accepted or even demanded by the people.

There are a lot of assumptions floating around economic conditions and election developments right now that do not take into account this long game.  The first being that globalists “are losing their grip on the situation.”

I would have to disagree.  In terms of political leaders (East and West) and surface economic indicators, the elites have more control than ever.

The argument of the “bumbling globalists” became rather popular the days after the initial success of the Brexit referendum.  This was of course based on the assumption that the Brexit is damaging to the globalists rather than helpful to them.  I outline why the Brexit is a perfect scapegoat for a fiscal downturn engineered by the elites in my article Brexit: Global Trigger Event, Fake Out, Or Something Else?, published before the Brexit vote took place.

Since the referendum, central banks and politicians around the world have begun calling for a single monetary and fiscal policy initiative meant to “head off any ill effects of the Brexit.”  That is to say, the open calls for one economic authority to rule them all have now begun.

The numerous warnings by the financial elites of a coming crisis event have most people in the mainstream and even many alternative analysts scratching their heads.  For those that hyper-focus on stock markets, all seems to be well.  Of course, these people only have an attention span that lasts until the next market ticker opens for the day.  They aren’t looking at the bigger picture.

To be fair, though, the mainstream media is really laying on the fake-out propaganda thick.

July and August have produced considerably strange behaviors from stocks so far, with a record number of days positive, followed by a near-record number of days negative.  I would consider this a form of volatility that should not be overlooked.  The media have so far shrugged off these developments and only noted that stock valuations are still high despite the Brexit “surprise.”  Their assertion has been that the Brexit “had no effect;” completely ignoring the fact that such events can have long term consequences rather than immediate consequences.

Oil prices have plunged back towards lows last seen at the beginning of the year, something I stated would eventually occur after the predictable failure of the OPEC meeting in Doha.  Low global demand continues and production has not slowed in any meaningful way.

There has been a steady correlation the past year between oil and stocks.  The current decoupling is unlikely to last very long and stocks should track down to oil by September as speculators give up trying to hold crude offshore in a useless effort to drive prices higher.  The mainstream has said little to nothing about this decoupling or its eventual consequences.

The past two months of employment numbers have been an epic farce, with the media playing up the supposed number of jobs added while mentioning nothing about the nearly 95 million working age Americans removed from the rolls and no longer counted as unemployed.  That’s almost one third of the U.S. population, and around half of all working age Americans that have no job.

The Bureau of Labor’s claim when cornered by this statistic and the fraudulent nature of their primary employment percentages?  “Those people don’t want to work, therefore they should not be counted…”

The better than expected jobs reports have so far allowed markets to levitate.  I would assert, however, that stocks are merely treading water at the deceptively calm center of a hurricane.

The reality is, they cannot hide an economic collapse forever.  Negative financial effects are going to touch ground somewhere, and the data is going to sneak through.  Case in point; U.S. productivity is now at 37 year lows despite government statistics claiming fully recovered employment.  You would think that in such a happy labor environment portrayed by the BLS productivity would grow.  This is not the case.  Perhaps a total unemployed population of over 100 million people may be contributing to the implosion of U.S. productivity...?

Outside of the U.S., European banks are on the verge of a breakdown, and central bank stimulus measures and rate cuts are adding minimal extra boost to markets.  They aren't currently falling much, but they aren't rallying much either.  In essence, equities are becoming stagnant due to artificial support from central banks and there is little incentive for investors to participate any longer.

In light of the latest manipulations of economic data and the jawboning of stocks since March, some alternative analysts have pronounced that the central banks plan to prop up markets “indefinitely,” or at least until Hillary Clinton can win the election.

This is an unfortunate assumption by the alternative crowd…

I remember before the Brexit vote a vast majority of independent economists and liberty analysts argued that the elites would “never allow” the U.K. referendum to pass — that they had the power to rig the vote however they pleased.  If this is the case (and I agree it is the case), then clearly the elites WANTED the Brexit to pass.

It would serve alternative analysts well to recall specifically the rigged polling numbers in the weeks leading up to the Brexit which showed a definite win for the “Stay” crowd.  Interesting how that all turned out, isn’t it?

I am consistently reminded of the Brexit surprise when I look today at the polling numbers on the U.S. election.  The erratic and inconsistent polling shows Trump climbing, then suddenly sinking days later, then climbing again without any clear catalysts.  Many polls contradict each other, just as the polls did before the Brexit, and, the same kind of circus atmosphere is present, if not more prevalent.

It may be possible, if not certain, that this is all a game.  The Brexit outcome was predetermined, which is how elites like George Soros scored successful investment bets on the referendum passing, and the reason why the Bank for International Settlements gathered central bankers from around the world as the vote was taking place.

I believe that the U.S. presidential election has also been predetermined; with a Trump win.  Some people might be confused by this concept.

Trump’s campaign has been consistently compared to the Brexit campaign by globalists in the media, as well as by mainstream pundits.  They call it a "dangerous" trend of rising populists.

The propaganda surrounding the Brexit asserts that the referendum will eventually lead to global economic crisis; and already, central banks and politicians are attempting to tie the Brexit to anything that might go wrong fiscally in the near future.

The propaganda surrounding Trump is the same; that Trump is unfit to lead America and that his economic policies will end in global financial ruin.

One constant connects the Brexit referendum and Trump — both are supported by conservative movements with anti-globalist leanings.

I submit that there is in fact a wider economic crisis on the way, and that the elites plan to use the Brexit and Trump as scapegoats for this crisis.

I have stated this before, but I think the idea needs repeating:  The globalists need the economy to turn unstable in order to create a rationale for a centralized economic authority and a single global currency system.  This is why they have consistently called for a “coordinated global central banking policy” after the Brexit.  This is why they continue to warn of a fiscal crisis even though stock markets remain at all-time highs.

If Hillary Clinton, a well known globalist puppet deep in the bedrock of the establishment, wins the election only to have the economy tank, then the globalists will get the blame.

If Trump is either allowed in office, or is placed in office, and the economy tanks, CONSERVATIVES, the primary enemy of the globalists, will get the blame for the resulting crisis.

To reiterate, the globalists have created the conditions by which an economic crisis can be triggered at the time of their choosing (within certain limits).  They are then either supporting the success of seemingly conservative based movements and candidates, or simply refusing to interfere with them.  This is being done so that the globalists can then blame the crash they created on conservative movements.

This allows them to demonize not just conservatives, but the conservative philosophy in general; labeling it a poisonous ideal akin to fascism.  Their solution?  Erase all elements of conservatism and sovereignty from society for the sake of the “greater good” of the collective.

This is part of the long game.

As I noted after the U.K. referendum, I believe the Brexit to be part of a “one-two-punch combination,” and that the second punch has not arrived yet.  My view appears to be supported by the number of financial elites warning investors to pull out of markets today before it is too late.  Obviously, they know something the rest of the financial mainstream does not.

This sets up the elites as “prophets” rather than criminals, as economic perception turns negative and the public begins looking for answers.

In the meantime, I believe a softer downturn will begin before the election takes place, most likely starting in September.  This will give a boost to the Trump campaign, or at least, that is what the polls will likely say.  I would also watch for some banking officials and media pundits to blame this downturn on Trump’s rise in the polling data.  The narrative will be that just the threat of a Trump presidency is “putting the markets on edge.”

Many claim the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in 2016 with the election threatened by a Trump candidacy.  I believe the Fed will in fact raise rates, as they always do going into major recessions.  If they do not raise rates before the election, they will most certainly raise rates in December if Trump is in the White House.

I realize that many will argue that Trump will “never be allowed to win,” just look at how the media demonizes him.  But this is what people argued before the Brexit, and they were wrong.  I suggest that this demonization campaign is much like the doom and gloom used by globalists before the UK referendum — it is not meant to stop the event.  It is not meant to prevent Trump from getting into office, it is meant to make Trump and conservatives a scapegoat for an impending crisis once he is IN office.

While I certainly am not advocating Hillary Clinton in the Oval Office, I have to point out that a Trump presidency serves the globalist long game better than a Clinton presidency.

First, the elites need an international financial crisis to encourage the public to support a single central bank policy and authority.  They can blame such a crisis on Trump and the Brexit and divert attention away from themselves.

Second, the elites need to remove the philosophy of conservatism as an obstacle to global collectivism and the destruction of national sovereignty.  Again, conservatives will be blamed as participants and co-conspirators in the fiscal crisis, and painted as so devilish that no future generation would want to be a associated with conservative thought.

Third, the elites need to kill the dollar’s world reserve status.  And yes, even this could be blamed on Trump as Saudi Arabia moves away from the dollar as the petro-currency and multiple nations begin to protest Trump’s “isolationism” by dumping the dollar.  In October, China (with the approval of the IMF) begins spreading SDR-based liquidity around the world, launching the next phase of the end of the dollar as world reserve right before the U.S. election climax.

Fourth, the elites need internal conflict within the U.S. and/or martial law in order to justify international intervention.  A Trump presidency will most likely be met with accelerated violence from social justice activists and general riots from the entitlement class.  I believe Trump will use martial law measures, though he probably will not label this "martial law".  There may even come a day when globalist “leaders” will assert that Trump cannot be allowed access to a nuclear arsenal, and that he must be stopped.

If Trump turns out to be anti-constitution, and the liberty movement acts to stand against him — we will be accused of working for the social justice miscreants, or we will ironically be accused as agents of the globalists.  If we fight against a globalist intervention or the social justice mobs, we will be accused as fascists by the international community.  Truly, with Trump as president, many doors open for the elites.

That said, this does not mean the elites will be ultimately successful in their endeavors.  There are always unknowns to any grand scheme.  As Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”  I believe the elites will be surprised by some sizable punches in the mouth.  Until then, though, their current strategy appears to be running on schedule.
Title: A new governing aristocracy made public deception acceptable
Post by: G M on August 15, 2016, 07:11:00 PM
http://www.canaryinthemineblog.com/2016/08/09/a-new-governing-aristocracy-made-public-deception-acceptable/


A new governing aristocracy made public deception acceptable
Posted on August 9, 2016 by The Canary   

We live in unprecedented times: With both conventions behind us, roughly three months to the November elections, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the political landscape has radically changed; and not only because both big parties selected highly flawed, even in their own parties relatively unpopular presidential nominees.

Disruptions of traditional American politics goes far beyond that point, and the selection of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump as standard bearers of their respective parties, indeed, increasingly looks like only the last step in a decades-long process of declining morality in public policy and politics. It also coincides with a rapidly expanding government, the concomitant growth and ever increasing power of a government-funded administrative “aristocracy,” made up of professional politicians and largely unaccountable government bureaucrats, who no longer listen to the people but believe to have the right to make choices on behalf of the people, while in actuality self-servingly expanding their own interests rather than those of the people.

Administrative “aristocracies” existed throughout history, from ancient Egypt, China and Japan to later European nation states, at times, indeed, similarly to current circumstances in the European Union (i.e. BREXIT) and the U.S. (ratification of the agreement with Teheran by the U.N. rather that the U.S. Congress), more loyal to their “aristocratic” cast members across-borders than to their own nations. This is how, for example, a German rather than British aristocratic family ascended to the British throne creating the House of Windsor or, as recently as in 1921, when a Saudi Arabian “aristocratic” family from Mecca was chosen by the British as rulers of Jordan, creating the Hashemite dynasty that has been in power ever since. Though formal aristocracies lost power in many countries, new administrative “aristocracies” almost always followed. Though, for example, end of aristocratic rule was a declared goal of the French Revolution, Napoleon established elite schools for future government administrators (and politicians), not too dissimilar to how Chinese emperors had ruled their vast empire already in early Chinese dynasties, and thus created a new ruling class (i.e., administrative aristocracy).

Napoleon’s schooling concept has survived in the so-called Grandes écoles of France over a number of French Republics, with the École national d’administration till today seeding governments and the nations administrative as well as business elites, whether from the left or right of the political spectrum. Post WWII, similar administrative “aristocracies” also developed in most other Western European democracies and, when the European Community was established, found its ultimate expression in the Union’s Brussel Bureaucracy, which can be viewed as the principle cause why the BREXIT vote led to the pending departure of the UK from the EU.

Primarily driven by an ever expanding federal government with increasing powers, and by diminished independence of individual states, such a federal administrative “aristocracy” has also been evolving in the U.S. Especially the last 30 years have witnessed exponential growth in the power of this ruling class, at least partially driven by the power of incumbency, offering politicians a high likelihood of reelection, and due to lifetime employment (with practically no legal option of dismissal) for government employees. United by common self-interests of incumbency and ever expanding financial as well as political power, politicians and government bureaucrats now represent our country’s administrative “aristocracy,” not dissimilar to the EU’s administrative “aristocracy” in Brussels. This is why, by income, some of the suburbs of Washington, DC, now are the richest counties in the nation.

Convinced of intellectual superiority, these “aristocratic” bureaucracies create self-perpetuating and self-serving government structures from the ground up by determining what is and what is not politically correct language (and, of course, politically correct thinking); by establishing educational curricula for schools and colleges that “educate” the young, following the old Jesuit dictum, “give me a child until age seven, and I’ll give you the man;” by interpreting laws in thousands of rules and regulations, many never intended by congress; in other words, by removing the administration of the country further and further from the direct will of the people.

Since ideologies throughout history never were able to co-exist with traditional religious believes, it is not surprising that these “aristocratic” bureaucracies are usually agnostic, and often even overtly hostile to the exercise of free religions. The empty space of religion is filled with “modern religiosity,” best defined as abstract concepts of thought, which share with religions the indisputable conviction of absolute and, therefore, indisputable truth; yet, like religions, they are also characterized by absence of all provability and, at times, are empirical illogical.

A good example for such illogical thinking is, for example, the laudable insistence on equality of all religions (i.e., Islam with Christianity and Judaism) while, at the same time restricting the ability of Christians to practice their religion freely. A good example for the results of such illogical thinking is that currently over 50% of U.S. college students allegedly favor socialism over capitalism, even though every student of history would know that in innumerable incarnations socialism has without exception always failed as an economic model, and more often than not, ended up leading to dictatorships and economic misery (see the current Venezuela, the country with the largest oil reserves in the world). This statistical fact is, however, also a good example how radically this new American “aristocracy” has changed America in recent decades. Even President Obama in his first election campaign, only eight years ago, still categorically rejected the label of being a “socialist” for fear of becoming unelectable. Only eight years later, Bernie Sanders, a declared Socialist would, likely, have become the elected Democratic presidential candidate, had the party leadership not undemocratically conspired against his election.

Looking back in history, considering the more recent political climate in the country, it is really quite remarkable that when the Watergate Scandal broke in the 1970s in the second Nixon administration, Republicans were on the forefront of those demanding his impeachment. Contrast that to what happened during the second Democratic Clinton administration, when the truth no longer mattered and relativity of values, suddenly, ruled the day.

Can anybody imagine that an earlier U.S. president would have politically survived a Lewinsky- like Scandal? And, yet in 1997, only a little over 20 years following Watergate, Bill Clinton not only survived, but became one of the country’s most popular ex-presidents. The political value system of the country in those short years had, obviously, radically changed: Doing the right thing for the country was out; and self-preservation of the ruling “aristocratic” class, based on the relativity of human values, was in. Not one Democratic member of the Senate supported Clinton’s impeachment, and many Republican politicians who had pushed for it, saw their political careers destroyed.

After Watergate, the Lewinsky Affair, likely, became the most decisive political event in recent American history because, for the first time, an American president in a televised broadcast literally looked into the eyes of the nation and outright lied, when stating “I have never had sex with this woman.”

Many, maybe even most presidents before Clinton, of course, also have on occasion been less than truthful; but nobody, except of course Nixon (“I am not a crook”), has in recent history so blatantly lied to the American people as Bill Clinton and, yet, gotten away with it, in the process changing American politics for ever by demonstrating that the modern multimedia world practically always offers the opportunity to relativize the truth of the message (to quote Bill Clinton, “it depends what the meaning of ‘is’ is.”).

The political “aristocracy” learned this lesson very quickly and, of course, nobody better than Hillary Clinton. She would never have dared to follow through with the absolute insane idea of establishing her own Internet server while serving as Secretary of State, had she not been convinced that she could manipulate the truth, should it be discovered. Piercing her words, as her husband had done so well during the Lewinsky Affair, she, indeed, has successfully avoided indictment by the Justice Department, even though a majority of Americans, likely, believe that she escaped because of special considerations by Obama’s Justice Department. Completely exposed in her deception by the FBI investigation, she, remarkably, still continues to lie in her statements to the public.

That Hillary Clinton was not indicted also explains why investigations of Fast and Furious and the IRS scandal never went anywhere, why six weeks before national presidential elections the first Obama administration could instruct senior administration officials to claim that the U.S. ambassador’s murder in Benghazi was not caused by terrorists but by a ridiculous irrelevant video produced in Los Angeles. This is also why Hillary Clinton is still a candidate for President of the U.S., even though common sense suggests that she should have been indicted, and why President Obama can with a straight face go on national television, telling the American people that sending 400 million dollars in foreign untraceable currencies on an unmarked plane in the middle of the night to Teheran represents just “routine” government relations between two governments, and had absolutely nothing to do with the concomitant release of four American hostages.

It has quite obviously become routine for senior government officials, including America’s current President, without fear of political or legal retributions, to blatantly lie to the American people. This, of course, does not happen by happenstance: it is a reflection of how much our country’s political morality has changed over the last three decades.

Within the ruling “aristocracy,” loyalty to the ruling class supersedes right and wrong, and even loyalty to the country is only, at best, second. This is why Ms. Lerner took the Fifth when questioned before Congress about the IRS scandal rather than inform Congress on who instructed her to discriminate against potential political opponents of the Obama administration. She knew that she could count on being protected, and that there would be no serious follow up investigation by the FBI. This is also why only one person was fired in the Veterans Affairs Scandal, the Justice Department decided not to defend a law suit this person filed about her dismissal, and the Obama administration announced that it would no longer implement a law Congress passed that allowed the Veterans Administrator to fire government employees for appropriate cause. And this is also why Hillary Clinton had no hesitation of appointing Ms. Wasserman-Schultz to the position of Honorary Chair of her campaign on the day she was forced to resign as Chair of the Democratic Party after public disclosure how the party under her leadership subverted the primary election process in favor of Ms. Clinton. One hand, of course, washes the other; the administrative “aristocracy” protects its own!

The public instinctively feels the growing divide between the ruling administrative “aristocracy” of both major parties and the American people. This is unquestionably a major reason why Congress and both parties have reached a nadir in popularity. The only question remaining is whether the public is upset enough about where the political “aristocracy” has taken the country to revolt, and take the risk in the upcoming election to consider the unknown over the unacceptable. If the answer is yes, then Donald Trump will be the next U.S. president; if the answer is no, then Hillary Clinton will not only be the first female president of the U.S. but, assuming the public’s anger with Washington continues to grow and finally boils over during her administration, she may end up being the first president since Richard Nixon not finishing a full term in the White House.
Title: Trump Calls for "Extreme Vetting"...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 16, 2016, 05:50:45 AM
Trump calls for “extreme vetting” of those who believe “sharia law should supplant American law”

AUGUST 15, 2016 11:12 PM BY ROBERT SPENCER

Common sense. And long overdue. It would be difficult to devise a test that could not withstand a practiced and skillful taqiyya artist, but why should the attempt not be made? Unsurprisingly, the Washington Post is enraged, along with the rest of the mainstream media, and is doing all it can to discredit and defeat Trump.

The obvious fact that they are so deeply threatened by him is the best testimony to his viability as a candidate — better even than his own statements. The political and media elites are frightened to the core, and their globalist and pro-jihad policies are threatened, and that is a very good thing.

Trump081516

“Trump proposes ideological test for Muslim immigrants and visitors to the U.S.,” by Karen DeYoung, Washington Post, August 15, 2016:

Donald Trump called Monday for a Cold War-style mobilization against “radical Islamic terror,” repeating and repackaging calls for strict immigration controls — including a new ideological litmus test for Muslim visitors and migrants — and blaming the current level of worldwide terrorist attacks on President Obama and Hillary Clinton.

In a grab bag of promises to battle the Islamic State organization together with Russia and anyone else who wants to join the fight, the Republican nominee underlined the need to improve intelligence and shut down militant propaganda, recruiting and financing.

But he provided few specifics on how he would expand such efforts beyond those already underway.

“My administration will aggressively pursue joint and coalition military operations to crush and destroy ISIS,” Trump said in a speech in Youngstown, Ohio, using an acronym for the Islamic State. “International cooperation to cut off their funding, expanded intelligence sharing and cyberwarfare to disrupt and disable their propaganda and recruiting . . . It’s got to be stopped.”

The speech was one in a series of prepared remarks the Republican presidential nominee has scheduled, amid criticism of controversial off-the-cuff policy pronouncements that he has later dismissed as jokes or sarcasm. Reading directly from a TelePrompter, a subdued Trump rarely departed from his script.

The principal new initiative was what Trump called “extreme vetting” for “any hostile attitude towards our country or its principles, or who believed sharia law should supplant American law. . . . Those who did not believe in our Constitution or who support bigotry and hatred will not be admitted for immigration into our country.”

“In the Cold War,” he said, “we had an ideological screening test. The time is overdue to develop a new screening test for the threats we face today. . . . I call it extreme, extreme vetting.”…
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 16, 2016, 11:01:48 AM
Of course a leftist publication like Scientific American (i do subscribe and like it otherwise) , I mean anything that is written about university level science is going to, by definition, have a liberal progressive lean . places Trump at the top.  Yet for all of Trump's impulsiveness I just don't sense him as evil like I do for Hillary.   She is truly evil with anyone who gets in her way.  He resorts to somewhat childish name calling but to me he is not evil

In any case:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/mind-guest-blog/of-psychopaths-and-presidential-candidates/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 16, 2016, 11:40:35 AM
Based on this it appears that the 3rd party candidates AGAIN screw over the Republicans:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hillary-clinton-gets-25-point-lead-donald-trump-latest-poll-1576340?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=rss&utm_content=/rss/yahoous/news&yptr=yahoo
Title: 2016 Presidential: Hillbillary Clinton: 'Obama's failure led to the rise of ISIS
Post by: DougMacG on August 16, 2016, 02:39:29 PM
A gaffe for a Democrat is when they get caught telling the truth.  Copying this post into the Pres. thread:

"the failure to build up Syrian rebels battling President Bashar Assad "left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled."   - Hillary Clinton  The Atlantic, Aug 10, 2014  Link below

"It is striking, however, that you have more than 170,000 people dead in Syria. You have the vacuum that has been created by the relentless assault by Assad on his own population, an assault that has bred these extremist groups, the most well-known of which, ISIS — or ISIL — is now literally expanding its territory inside Syria and inside Iraq," Clinton said.

Iran Deal:
"it’s important to send a signal to everybody who is there that there cannot be a deal unless there is a clear set of restrictions on Iran," adding, "little or no enrichment has always been my position."

Clinton said Obama's political message on foreign policy might be different from his worldview, noting, "Great nations need organizing principles, and 'Don’t do stupid stuff' is not an organizing principle."

Her own organizing tactic? "Peace, progress and prosperity."

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton-failure-to-help-syrian-rebels-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/375832/

http://thehill.com/policy/international/214796-clinton-criticizes-obama-foreign-policy
Title: Beck: Trump campaign plays Russian Roulette in plain sight
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 16, 2016, 03:46:25 PM
http://www.glennbeck.com/2016/08/16/trump-campaign-plays-russian-roulette-in-plain-sight/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=top-stories&utm_campaign=homepage&utm_term=Glenn%20Beck
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, 5 ways Hillary can still lose, NY Post
Post by: DougMacG on August 17, 2016, 07:16:07 AM
Political analyst: Five Ways Hillary Can Still Lose

Hillary Clinton “shouldn’t start preparing her inaugural address just yet,” says Niall Stanage at The Hill. He cites five potential pitfalls:
1) A debate disaster, especially since “Clinton cannot win the expectations game”;
2) more e-mail embarrassments, because “trustworthiness is Clinton’s biggest weak spot in polls”;
3) low turnout, in which “liberals … stay home while Trump benefits from an unexpected surge among his white, working-class base”;
4) more Clinton Foundation revelations, given that she’s managed “to skate past questions about her behavior in office; and
5) a terrorist attack, as “Trump has polled respectably” on which candidate can best combat terrorism.
http://nypost.com/2016/08/16/racially-charged-riots-how-hillary-can-lose-and-other-notable-commentary/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 23, 2016, 04:05:02 AM
We here have taken Obama-Hillary-Kerry to task for weakness in front of Putin's slow moving invasion of Ukraine. 

Trump has made some very different noises and recently stated

"Trust me, Putin is not going to invade (the rest of) Ukraine."

If Putin does exactly that, and it looks like he will, inter alia this is going to make for some horribly effective campaign spots against Trump.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 23, 2016, 07:21:43 AM
"Trust me, Putin is not going to invade (the rest of) Ukraine."

Doug,

Agreed.  A foolish statement.  Remember when Carter looked foolish when Russia invaded Afghanistan?  This is the same self set up to look like a dupe.

Similarly, Obama's "line in the sand".

Doug,

You seem to be up on the races.  How bad do the Congressional and Senate races look?  I mean at least if Repubs can at least keep those.  Unless something changes the damage Trump has done to himself is going to result in a electoral landslide.  So say the Presidency is gone and the Sup Ct. ......

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 23, 2016, 08:21:50 AM
Here's what I think is wrong for the Republicans:

President Obama Job Approval
Approve 51.5
Disapprove 44.6
Net Approval  +6.9

Real Clear Politics poll averages.  That approval should be at minus double digits.  Either we aren't messaging or he is doing things right and we've got it wrong. 

But people also know the country is headed in the wrong direction:

Direction of Country
Right Direction 28.0
Wrong Track 64.3
Wrong Track +36.3

Maybe Obama's approval is personal and won't hand off to his successor.  But right now it is Obama and not Bill who is the best campaigner.  Reagan helped pull GHW Bush over the line.  We haven't herd the last from Michelle O in this campaign either.

Who are the Republican power horses that can step in to support Trump-Pence to match the power of this incumbent President?  There are none in the first place and secondly the best among them are lukewarm at best on the candidate.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 23, 2016, 01:08:59 PM
Doug,

How do you account for Obama's above 50% approval numbers?

1)  an adoring 90% of the media?
2)  DNC phony speech about the greatness of America (after nearly 8 yrs of undermining this country and proceeding at warp speed to erasing national borders)?
3)  the obvious comparisons with Trump in regards to temperament and disposition?  Which plays to the ill informed crowd IMO.
4)  emphasis on racial politics?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on August 23, 2016, 08:06:01 PM
Ccp,   All of the above and then some. The poll average probably just tells us where we are right now.  Obama is a known leftist; people lean left.  Left seems normal and common sense when not challenged.

My hope was that the primaries would be 12 months of 17 Republicans taking apart the Obama record and explaining a better alternative.   That didn't happen there, doesn't happen in the media, in the schools, colleges or anywhere else.
Title: Hillary's Race War
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2016, 08:36:36 AM
HILLARY’S RACE WAR
Disgusting lies, smears and hate.
August 26, 2016
 
Daniel Greenfield
 
13
Share to Facebook92Share to TwitterShare to More58Share to Print
 
Daniel Greenfield, a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the Freedom Center, is a New York writer focusing on radical Islam.

Hillary Clinton has met with leaders of a racist hate group responsible for torching cities and inciting the murders of police officers.  Deray McKesson, one of the Black Lives Matter hate group leaders she met with, had praised the looting of white people and endorsed cop killers Assata Shakur and Mumia Abu-Jamal. The Black Lives Matter hate group had specifically made a point of targeting white people in “white spaces” for harassment. It would go on to incite the mass murder of police officers in Dallas and other racist atrocities.

Despite all this, Hillary Clinton has never disavowed the racist hate group. Instead she doubled down on supporting the hate group and its icons at the Democratic National Convention.

Now, after Trump’s appeal to the black community, Hillary is desperately trying to divide us by race.

Despite Hillary’s latest hypocritical and self-serving accusations, Donald Trump has never held a meeting with leaders of a racist hate group. Hillary Clinton has. And she has refused all calls by police unions to end her support for a vicious hate group that has championed the release of cop killers and endorsed BDS against Israel.

When an 83-year-old great grandmother is viciously beaten by racist thugs and then set on fire, Hillary Clinton has nothing to say. She has remained silent about the wave of racist violence by her political allies that is sweeping this country and leaving victims battered or dead.

Hillary is trading on accusations of racism to distract attention from her ugly record of pandering to racists to get ahead. As Trump has said, “It’s the oldest play in the Democratic playbook. When Democratic policies fail, they are left with only this one tired argument. You’re racist, you’re racist, you’re racist!”
It’s not Hillary Clinton who has a consistent track record of opposing racists, but Donald Trump.

Trump’s first entry into presidential politics was a bid to block Pat Buchanan from gaining the Reform Party nomination. Trump accused Buchanan of anti-Semitism, racism and Nazi sympathies.

Hillary Clinton claimed that Trump had refused to disavow racist leader David Duke. But Trump had already rejected Duke back when he was considering a presidential campaign in 2000. "So the Reform Party now includes a Klansman—Mr. Duke, a Neo-Nazi—Mr. Buchanan, and a Communist—Ms. Fulani. This is not company I wish to keep."

If only Hillary Clinton had been as consistent in rejecting the company of Communists, Nazis and assorted racists as Trump has been.

Instead Hillary Clinton met with Black Lives Matter racist DeRay McKesson who spends his time denouncing “whiteness”. And on the other side of the racial line, Hillary Clinton praised the “courage, tenacity and vision” of Margaret Sanger who had delivered a speech to the KKK and whose Negro Project had promoted racial eugenics. Sanger’s pamphlet, “What Every Girl Should Know”, had described Australian aborigines as “the lowest known species of the human family, just a step higher than the chimpanzee in brain development”. If this isn’t racism, I don’t know what is.

But according to Hillary Clinton, killing black babies and promoting hatred against white people isn’t racist. But criticizing what the Democrats have done to black communities is.

In her speech, Hillary Clinton denounced Trump’s criticisms of the Democratic exploitation of black communities as racist. According to Hillary Clinton, when Trump bemoaned poverty, lack of ownership and blight in black communities under Democratic rule, that was bigoted.  It’s the opposite of bigotry. Hillary Clinton is so threatened by Trump’s challenge to Democratic hegemony in the black community that she has been forced to resort to the most “tired” of arguments.

There is no defending the track record of the Democrats in black communities. All that Hillary can do is accuse those who point to the tragedy of the inner city of being racists.

The rest of Hillary Clinton’s accusations are equally absurd.

Hillary Clinton accused Trump of somehow being involved with anti-Semitism. This is the same man who said, “I want to thank my Jewish daughter. I have a Jewish daughter.”  The idea that Trump has anything in common with Richard Spencer, the anti-Semitic bigot who coined the term “Alt-Right”, is absurd. There are members of the Alt-Right using Trump to promote themselves. But Trump has no idea who or what they are. And, unlike Hillary, he has a track record of rejecting them.

But Hillary is rerunning her old “vast right-wing conspiracy” meme. Its purpose is to turn the tables on her critics. But her speech is a bizarre rant which claims that Putin has masterminded some sort of global nationalist conspiracy. But Putin isn’t interested in American nationalism. He doesn’t want a strong America. He wants a weak America. He wants the America of Hillary Clinton stretching out a reset button to one of his lackeys and asking the Russian tyranny to forgive us for George W. Bush.

Hillary Clinton denounces Trump as paranoid, but it’s her speech that is throbbing with unhinged paranoia, vague rumors and guilt by association. Even as she tries to claim the mantle of the optimistic candidate, her campaign runs on conspiracy theories and alliances with the vilest of racists.

The Obama years have been the biggest gift to racists of all shades and colors. During his time in office, both the black and white view of race relations has plummeted dramatically. If racist hate groups of both colors are in ascendance, it’s not because of Trump, but because of Obama.  And four to eight years of Hillary continuing this ugly legacy would see them grow even further.

Why would racists want Trump, who has denounced them, when they can have Hillary?

Why would Putin want a stronger America, when he can have more of the inept fumbling and appeasement of the Obama years?

Why would anyone believe Hillary Clinton’s paranoid conspiracy theories when they make no sense?

If Vladimir Putin had wanted to dictate our foreign policy, he couldn’t have done any better than Obama.

If black and white racists had wanted to divide us by race, they couldn’t have done any better than Obama.  Hillary Clinton’s disgusting accusations are an attempt to divert attention from the real issues that Trump has raised, from black suffering under Democratic rule to Islamic terrorism.

As Trump has said, “People who speak out against radical Islam, and who warn about refugees, are not Islamophobes. They are decent American citizens who want to uphold our values as a tolerant society, and who want to keep the terrorists out of our country.”

Hillary Clinton wants to bring the terrorists to this country. She wants to continue destroying our national security the way that her mentor in the White House has been doing.  And she will tell any lie and launch any smear to crawl her way to power. Now she’s trying to play on racial divisions while trying to attribute her own tactics to Donald Trump.

Title: Caroline Glick: Trump & The American Dream...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 26, 2016, 11:12:41 AM

Trump and the American Dream 

By CAROLINE B. GLICK - The Jerusalem Post
 08/25/2016   
 
 
According to most polls taken since last month’s party conventions, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton enjoys an insurmountable lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump. Consequently, a number of commentators on both sides of the partisan divide have declared the race over. Clinton, they say, has won.

 There are several problems with this conclusion.

 First of all, the “official campaign,” won’t begin until September 26, when Clinton and Trump face off in their first presidential debate. Clinton is not a stellar debater and Trump, a seasoned entertainer, excels in these formats.

 Second, recent polls indicate that Trump is closing the gap. Whereas until this past week Clinton enjoyed a 6-8 point lead in the polls, in two polls taken this week, her lead had contracted to a mere 1-3 points.

 Third, it is quite possible that Clinton’s problems have only begun. Her peak popularity may be behind her. Since her nomination, barely a day has passed without another stunning exposé of apparently corrupt behavior on the part of Clinton and her closest advisers. This week’s AP report that half of Clinton’s non-official visitors during her tenure as secretary of state were donors to the Clinton Foundation was merely the latest blow.

 The continuous drip of corruption stories will have a corrosive effect on Clinton’s support levels. If the revelations to come are as damaging as many have claimed, their impact on Clinton’s candidacy may be fatal.

 In light of Clinton’s weaknesses, Trump’s main hurdle to winning the election may very well lie with the NeverTrump movement. That movement encompasses much of the Republican establishment – that is, the political class of centrist elected officials, opinion-shapers, former officials and ideologues. Its members have vowed not to vote for Trump even if it means that Clinton wins the White House. The fact that so many prominent Republican voices continue to oppose Trump even after he has been nominated hurts his ability to build support among swing voters.

 As far as the NeverTrumpsters are concerned, Trump carried out a hostile takeover of their party.

 The man who discussed his private parts on national television and brutally and personally attacked his opponents may have won more primary votes than any Republican candidate in the past. But he also won the enmity of more members of the party establishment than any other Republican presidential hopeful.

 In an interview with CNN in late May,  Wall Street Journal columnist (and former Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief) Bret Stephens spoke for many in the NeverTrump camp when he said that he wants Trump to be “the biggest loser in presidential history.”

Stephens explained, “It’s important that Donald Trump and what he represents, this kind of ethnic quote ‘conservatism’ or populism, be so decisively rebuked that the Republican Party and Republican voters will forever learn their lesson that they cannot nominate a man so manifestly unqualified to be president in any way, shape or form.”

In June Stephens told radio host Hugh Hewitt that a Trump presidency would be more devastating for the US than a Clinton presidency. Stephens argued that whereas a Clinton presidency would be “a survivable event” he was unsure that the US could survive a Trump presidency.

 He explained, “The United States survives so long as at least one of its major parties is politically and intellectually healthy. I don’t think the Republican Party... as the vehicle for modern American conservative ideas, survives with Donald Trump.”

This week, The Washington Times published a list of 50 senior Republicans who not only will not support Trump, but have switched sides and are publicly supporting Clinton.

 The problem with Stephens’s view, which again, is widely shared by the intellectual and political establishment of the party, is that it ignores the cause of Trump’s primaries victory.

 On the eve of his 2008 electoral victory, Barack Obama pledged to “fundamentally transform,” America.

 He kept his word.

 And it is this fundamental transformation and the Republican leadership’s failure to stop it that transformed a loud-mouthed, brash billionaire into the Republican nominee. It was this transformation, and the Republican establishment’s failure to block it, that made it impossible for moderates like Mitt Romney or Jeb Bush to win the Republican primaries in 2016.

 Not only has the country been transformed, the Republican electorate has been transformed.

 Today America is steeped in crisis. Foreign audiences concentrate on the crisis of American power overseas. Today, due to Obama’s decision to prefer his failed attempt at rapprochement with Iran over longtime US allies in the region, the Americans have lost their strategic superiority in the Middle East and are on the way to losing whatever residual influence they still maintain over regional affairs.

 Turkey’s ground invasion of Syria on Wednesday is a clear sign of the disintegration of America’s regional position. While the invasion was ostensibly launched against ISIS, the plain fact is that its main target is the Kurds. That is, NATO member Turkey invaded Syria to take out the US’s primary ally in its campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

 And the US is providing air cover to the Turkish invaders while abandoning the Kurds.

 Every advance the US has made in its campaign against ISIS has been achieved on the backs of the Kurds. And yet, Vice President Joe Biden, who was visiting in Ankara the day of the Turkish invasion, openly threatened the Kurds. Biden said the US will abandon them if they refuse to conform with Turkey’s demand that they withdraw to the eastern side of the Euphrates River.

 Biden’s move merely reinforced the growing impression that the US is only dangerous to its allies. The Iranians, for instance responded to the Turkish move by harassing the US Navy destroyer USS Nitze as it traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than sink the Iranian vessels that threatened it, the Nitze responded by shooting off a couple of flares. The State Department then whined about the assault, calling Iran’s act of war “unprofessional.”

And the worst part about the US’s strategic crackup is that it is but one of the crises endangering America today.

 Economically, the US has been steeped in stagnation for eight years. Largely as a result of overregulation, entrepreneurship is producing almost no new jobs. The housing crisis has not ended. People who purchased homes before 2008 remain stuck with underwater mortgages, doomed to remain in towns with no jobs because they can’t afford to sell their homes.

 Obamacare has made healthcare unaffordable for people who have insurance. Co-payments have risen so steeply that for many insured Americans, medical care is now viewed as a luxury item.

 In Rust Belt states, tens of millions of blue collar workers find themselves living in ruined towns. In the past two decades company after company closed its factories, shipped its operations out of the US or went bankrupt in the face of foreign competitors. And their former workers, people who believed in the American Dream, and actually achieved it, now have no dreams and no hope of ever getting back what they lost, much less of seeing their children do better than they did.

 The economic crisis has caused deeper crises.First and foremost the US is now in the midst of a crisis of faith. A Pew poll released this week showed that between 2007 and 2014, church attendance declined from 39 to 36 percent over the seven-year period. A significant number of nonobservant Americans no longer believe in God.

 Those numbers themselves are highly inflated. A multiyear study of church attendance data gathered from the majority of churches in the US by sociologists C. Kirk Hadaway and Penny Long Marler and published in 2005 showed that fewer than half of those who claim to go to church regularly actually do so. Hadaway and Marler assessed that a mere 17.7 percent of Americans go to church on a regular basis. The rest just tell pollsters that they attend because they are embarrassed that they don’t attend.

 In other words, what the Pew survey shows is not a reduction in religious worship but a shift in values. Today fewer Americans view church attendance as normatively superior to nonattendance.

 Loss of faith may well be directly correlated with a diminished view of the value of life. In Appalachia and the Midwest, the economic crisis and the spiritual crisis have also engendered a drug epidemic unprecedented in rural America. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 125 Americans die every day from drug overdoses. That is more than the number of Americans who die in car accidents. The most significant rise in drug addiction rates has occurred in rural America. New Hampshire is the heroin capital of the US.

 Just last weekend, 10 people died of heroin overdoses in one rural county in Ohio. The heroin in question was laced with a tranquilizer generally used on elephants.

 This is the American transformation that Obama has brought about. And the suffering and misery it has engendered are the reason that Trump is now the Republican presidential nominee.

 Trump is no Billy Sunday. He is not a champion of free trade or social conservativism. He isn’t a neoconservative interventionist. Trump is the bar brawler who says things no one else will say. And the people who lack faith in the country’s ability to help them, who have lost hope that things that used to work can work again, adore him for it.

 This brings us to the issue of the lessons that will be learned by Republican voters if Trump loses as the NeverTrumpsters hope and expect.

 If Trump loses, his voters will not realize that they were mistaken to believe in him and support him in defiance of their party’s intellectual class. They will blame the NeverTrumpsters for the election results and boot them out of the party altogether. If the Republican Party even exists in 2020 and 2024, its candidates will make Trump look like a moderate.

 If Trump wins, on the other hand, while it is true that the NeverTrumpsters will not maintain their unquestioned control over Republican policies, they will likely get a seat at the table and retain some influence.

 More important, if Trump wins, the US will have a chance of changing back to the country it was before Obama fundamentally transformed it.

 Clinton, who like Obama and the NeverTrumpsters scoffs at Trump’s dark descriptions of American life today, has pledged to double down on Obama’s foreign and domestic policies. Indeed, she even pledged to destroy what’s left of the coal industry.

 So if Clinton is elected, what Republicans think about illegal immigration and free trade and foreign policy will be irrelevant. America’s fundamental transformation will become irreversible.

 In that event, America as a whole – not Trump, and not even the NeverTrumpsters – will be the greatest loser of November’s election.

www.CarolineGlick.com 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 26, 2016, 12:14:19 PM
From her mouth to God's ears.  We need a lightening bolt about now.  :-)
Title: 2 nd post
Post by: ccp on August 26, 2016, 12:52:51 PM
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

I find it hard to believe one or two polls that show it being close when all the others are not showing this.  And the swing states are not good .
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on August 26, 2016, 02:15:02 PM
Donald Trump took any hope of beating the Crooked Hillary machine out onto 5th Ave. and shot it in the head.

Hillary is the next president. Plan accordingly.
Title: Strassel: The US Dept. of Clinton
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2016, 02:56:39 PM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-department-of-clinton-1472167746
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 26, 2016, 06:18:24 PM
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/comic/go-with-the-flow/
Title: Hillary's Long History of Associations with Racists...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 29, 2016, 11:06:20 AM
Hillary's Long, Cozy Love Affairs With Racists

Promoting racial animosity has been the mainstay of her political strategy for years.

August 29, 2016

John Perazzo


There is something otherworldly about Hillary Clinton accusing her Republican rival of running a presidential campaign steeped in “racial resentment,” “divisive rhetoric,” and “racist comments.” Otherworldly, because these are precisely the elements that have been Hillary's stock-in-trade since the dawn of her political career.

During her first presidential campaign eight years ago, Mrs. Clinton spoke at an event held by Al Sharpton's National Action Network, where she crowed about the “long and positive relationship” she had enjoyed with Sharpton and his organization. Noting that “I don't ever remember saying 'no' to them,” Clinton vowed “to remain their partner in civil rights” for as long as there was breath in her body. Sharpton, you may recall, is the vile, foul-mouthed black socialist who has done more to poison race relations in America than virtually anyone other than Barack Obama.

And nothing whatsoever has changed in Mrs. Clinton's estimation of Sharpton in the years since then. This past April, for instance, Madame Hillary again spoke at a National Action Network event where she lauded Sharpton and his group for steadfastly working “on the frontlines of our nation’s continuing struggle for civil rights,”  and “in a million ways lift[ing] up voices that too often go unheard.”

To what voices was Hillary referring, you may ask? Perhaps she meant the voices of people like the family of Yankel Rosenbaum, a Hasidic Jew who was killed in a Brooklyn race riot that Sharpton helped foment; or the voice of a young assistant district attorney in New York whose life Sharpton ruined with what he knew were false accusations of interracial rape and sodomy; or the voices of the white “crackers” whom Sharpton has identified as descendants of early American settlers from Europe; or the voices of the seven people who died in a 1995 Harlem fire set by a lunatic whose rage had been stoked by Sharpton's relentless anti-Semitic rhetoric; or the voices of the three white members of the Duke University lacrosse team whom Sharpton falsely accused of having raped a black woman in 2006.

Yes, Hillary is deeply moved by all the things Al Sharpton has done to “lift up” so many people in need.

It's also noteworthy that Mrs. Clinton has never denounced Black Lives Matter (BLM), a racist movement that openly and proudly reveres the former Black Panther, convicted cop-killer, longtime fugitive, and lifelong Marxist, Assata Shakur; a movement that likewise venerates yet another cop-killer, Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin, formerly known as H. Rap Brown, the Sixties radical renowned for urging blacks to murder “honkies” and “burn America down”; a movement whose supporters and foot soldiers have vocally and repeatedly called for the murder of white police officers.

Instead of condemning the hate-filled racists of BLM, Hillary treats them like dignitaries. Indeed, in one impromptu conversation with three BLM activists complaining about the “mass incarceration” of blacks, Hillary praised their “analysis” as “totally fair,” “historically fair,” psychologically fair,” and “economically fair.” Referring to white people as “sinners,” she dutifully lamented that America “has still not recovered from its original sin” of racism.

On another occasion, Hillary met with BLM leader DeRay McKesson and a number of other race-obsessed grievance mongers. There, she listened to McKesson's insipid musings about “issues related to blackness,” and to his call for the implementation of a massive “New Deal for black people” which would redistribute massive sums of money from whites to blacks as a penalty for historical wrongs.

Following her meeting with McKesson, a slobbering Clinton lauded him as a “social media emperor” (given his 230,000+ Twitter followers). And Hillary herself tweeted: “Racism is America's original sin. To those I met with today, thank you for sharing your ideas.”

And just last month – a mere eleven days after a Black Lives Matter supporter had murdered five policemen in Dallas, and one day after a black gunman had murdered three police officers in Baton Rouge – Mrs. Clinton delivered a campaign speech to a receptive audience of fellow racialists at the NAACP. There, she emphasized exactly what you might expect a classless political whore to focus on in the wake of eight senseless murders of police officers: “how urgently we need to make reforms to policing and criminal justice”; “how we cannot rest until we root out implicit bias and stop the killings of African-Americans”; how tragic it is that “many African-Americans fear the police”; and how unacceptable it is that “African- Americans are disproportionately killed in police incidents compared to any other group.”

Hillary Clinton's worldview is founded on a bedrock belief in the notion that white people have, and always will have, a great deal to atone for. And this, in turn, is founded upon her bedrock belief in tribalism, group-identity politics, and collective guilt. To Hillary Clinton, people aren't individuals. They are members of groups, and the only thing that matters is whether or not the passions of those groups can be manipulated and exploited to help her and her party gain more political power.

Hillary's obsession with race is the flip side of her Marxism. Classical Marxism seeks to divide people along class lines and pit them against one another in an effort to spark a revolution. Modern-day Marxists, like Hillary, seek to also divide people along racial lines. As the great scholar and author Dennis Prager has noted, they firmly reject the American credo of E pluribus unum (“From many, one”). Instead, they promote the very opposite: “From one, many.” A thoroughly divided, tribalized society.

Hillary Clinton pretends to be disgusted and offended by “divisive” and “racist” language. But in fact, her entire political career has been built on it.
Title: To GM...
Post by: objectivist1 on August 29, 2016, 11:08:27 AM
Donald Trump took any hope of beating the Crooked Hillary machine out onto 5th Ave. and shot it in the head.

Hillary is the next president. Plan accordingly.

Your prediction of Hillary's win is highly premature - and I believe influenced by the crooked media's phony polls and wishful thinking (on the media's part) that Trump will go down to defeat.  Don't be so sure.
Title: Re: To GM...
Post by: G M on August 29, 2016, 11:53:53 AM
I come to my conclusion based on the polling in the states that have a potential pathway to victory for Trump. It does not look good at all.

We shall see.

Donald Trump took any hope of beating the Crooked Hillary machine out onto 5th Ave. and shot it in the head.

Hillary is the next president. Plan accordingly.

Your prediction of Hillary's win is highly premature - and I believe influenced by the crooked media's phony polls and wishful thinking (on the media's part) that Trump will go down to defeat.  Don't be so sure.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 29, 2016, 12:29:31 PM
I saw a relative over the weekend who is apparently a Trump fan.

He doesn't believe the polls either.  Just doesn't trust them or the media.  He thinks there is a groundswell of anger at Washington that will sweep in Trump. 

At the same time two other relatives who are reliable Republicans will not vote Trump or Hillary .  One who was my nephew who worded with Jindal said he will vote Gary Johnson while at the same time admitting that is a vote for Hillary.   He cannot stomach voting for Trump.  The other one said she will just sit out the election.   She cannot get herself to vote for either. 

When I was asked who I will vote for I said Trump.  My reason is simple :  I have NO choice.  If Hillary gets in we will become  a one party nation. 

I don't get Trump supporters who are unconvinced of the dire poll results lately.  All these polls cannot be off that much.

I still hold out hope.  But I would say I am very pessimistic about the outcome.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: objectivist1 on August 29, 2016, 12:39:52 PM
I will also say that anyone who claims to care about this nation and its founding principles, but does not vote for Trump in order to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency is either a liar, or someone who will benefit from the status quo.
There is simply no rational argument to be made that Trump would be equally bad or worse than Clinton.  She is guaranteed destruction for the Constitution, and probably a guarantee of civil unrest if not outright civil war following her election.
In addition her presidency pretty much guarantees another massive (if not many) terrorist attack.  It will suit her goal of seizing totalitarian control.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 29, 2016, 12:47:45 PM
"I will also say that anyone who claims to care about this nation and its founding principles, but does not vote for Trump in order to deny Hillary Clinton the presidency is either a liar, or someone who will benefit from the status quo.
There is simply no rational argument to be made that Trump would be equally bad or worse than Clinton.  She is guaranteed destruction for the Constitution, and probably a guarantee of civil unrest if not outright civil war following her election.
In addition her presidency pretty much guarantees another massive (if not many) terrorist attack.  It will suit her goal of seizing totalitarian control."

I agree with you 100%.  I told everyone exactly this.  Like the other Donald said, Donald Rumsfeld,  Trump is "known unknown".  We know who he is but not how he would govern.  But Hillary is a "known known".   We know how she would govern.  And it is ugly for those who love freedom.   I think I will be able to convince my nephew and and his mother to vote for Trump.  Maybe they don't see it that way yet, but they have no choice either.
Title: Bill: Let's rebuild Detroit with Syrian refugees
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 29, 2016, 08:16:51 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/29/bill-clinton-calls-for-rebuilding-detroit-with-syrian-refugees/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on August 31, 2016, 10:46:33 AM
Sorry but I don't believe the hack was necessarily Putin.   Does anyone for one SECOND even have to contemplate whether or not the crats would do the same to the Republicans if they could?
Yes I get the long term implications.  But we are already there thanks to the Democrats of the Clinton and forward era.  All is war in love and politics:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/democrats-russian-hack-republicans-227564
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on August 31, 2016, 08:59:28 PM
IMHO a strong couple of days for The Donald.

Excellent and crafty pitch for the black vote the other day in Milwaukee.

Well played and presidential looking on the international stage with the Mexican President today-- even Krauthammer said so  :lol: :-D and a very strong and politically crafty speech tonight on immigration.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 01, 2016, 02:50:26 PM
" a very strong and politically crafty speech tonight on immigration."

Apparently the nay sayers claim you and I are in the minority.  This from the one chosen to run against Trump who says mainstream Americans do not agree with him:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439610/donald-trump-immigration-speech-smart-message-bad-delivery-wrong-messenger
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 01, 2016, 06:32:40 PM
However , overall the "editors" of NR like his plan:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439624/donald-trump-immigration-reform-2016-speech-phoenix-arizona

 :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 02, 2016, 03:12:39 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/clintons-advisers-tell-her-to-prep-for-a-landslide-227659
Title: Trumps' Black Church speech
Post by: ccp on September 03, 2016, 10:26:35 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79OAyAc3G-M
Title: Gary Johnson on "Illegal Immigrants"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 03, 2016, 06:18:10 PM
https://www.facebook.com/roger.hemond/videos/1152594714797815/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED

 :roll:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 03, 2016, 11:39:39 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/31/polling-firm-trump-surges-into-lead-in-michigan-wisconsin-new-hampshire-maine/
Title: Smartest woman ever!
Post by: G M on September 04, 2016, 09:06:52 AM
https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/dementia-1.jpg

(https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/dementia-1.jpg)
Title: Cesar Chavez for Trump!
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 04, 2016, 11:48:53 AM
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/sean-long/2014/03/27/media-ignore-c%C3%A9sar-ch%C3%A1vezs-opposition-illegal-immigration-racial
Title: Circle Jerk Math
Post by: DDF on September 06, 2016, 02:29:17 PM
What do you get when you combine the following?

Donald Trump + (Goldman Sachs * 2) = A 650 million outstanding loan due to Goldman Sachs from the Donster = GS Employees given charge of his campaign operations and finances, + a probable Secretary of the Treasury position should Trump Win
http://fortune.com/2016/07/19/here-is-who-donald-trump-wants-for-treasury-secretary/
His outstanding loan to Goldman Sachs http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-donald-trump-companies-at-least-650-million-in-debt/

Hillary Clinton + her Foundation + a liberal orgy that's finally named Chelsea + 1 yamika = "the whole Clinton clan will convene at Goldman Sachs headquarters in Manhattan for a meet and greet with top donors to the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation. The New York Times reported last month" http://freebeacon.com/blog/clintons-sachs-ual-relations/ AND a the reality that 25 million dollars from lost hedge funds at Goldman Sachs = a $10,000,000 apartment for love child in Manhattan. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3584863/Chelsea-Clinton-s-husband-Marc-colleagues-Goldman-Sachs-shutter-25million-hedge-fund-losing-nearly-investors-money-good-thing-10million-apartment.html

Crooked Clinton + 2 Guys from Kansas = Yet another way Clinton is attached to Trump and vice versa because....
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/07/koch-brothers-now-supporting-hillary-clinton.html
Is the same as
Goldman Sachs = Koch=Trump=Clinton
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-10/koch-goldman-agree-to-buy-printing-ink-maker-flint-from-cvc

We've gone full circle and haven't even said anything that hasn't been in the news. Vote? What flippin vote?

Title: Re: Circle Jerk Math
Post by: G M on September 06, 2016, 03:06:39 PM
The big money has purchased access to both. Still, this will be the most hacked and fraudulent vote in what is left of this nation's history.


What do you get when you combine the following?

Donald Trump + (Goldman Sachs * 2) = A 650 million outstanding loan due to Goldman Sachs from the Donster = GS Employees given charge of his campaign operations and finances, + a probable Secretary of the Treasury position should Trump Win
http://fortune.com/2016/07/19/here-is-who-donald-trump-wants-for-treasury-secretary/
His outstanding loan to Goldman Sachs http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-donald-trump-companies-at-least-650-million-in-debt/

Hillary Clinton + her Foundation + a liberal orgy that's finally named Chelsea + 1 yamika = "the whole Clinton clan will convene at Goldman Sachs headquarters in Manhattan for a meet and greet with top donors to the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation. The New York Times reported last month" http://freebeacon.com/blog/clintons-sachs-ual-relations/ AND a the reality that 25 million dollars from lost hedge funds at Goldman Sachs = a $10,000,000 apartment for love child in Manhattan. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3584863/Chelsea-Clinton-s-husband-Marc-colleagues-Goldman-Sachs-shutter-25million-hedge-fund-losing-nearly-investors-money-good-thing-10million-apartment.html

Crooked Clinton + 2 Guys from Kansas = Yet another way Clinton is attached to Trump and vice versa because....
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/07/koch-brothers-now-supporting-hillary-clinton.html
Is the same as
Goldman Sachs = Koch=Trump=Clinton
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-10/koch-goldman-agree-to-buy-printing-ink-maker-flint-from-cvc

We've gone full circle and haven't even said anything that hasn't been in the news. Vote? What flippin vote?


Title: Re: Circle Jerk Math
Post by: DDF on September 06, 2016, 03:09:55 PM
The big money has purchased access to both. Still, this will be the most hacked and fraudulent vote in what is left of this nation's history.


What do you get when you combine the following?

Donald Trump + (Goldman Sachs * 2) = A 650 million outstanding loan due to Goldman Sachs from the Donster = GS Employees given charge of his campaign operations and finances, + a probable Secretary of the Treasury position should Trump Win
http://fortune.com/2016/07/19/here-is-who-donald-trump-wants-for-treasury-secretary/
His outstanding loan to Goldman Sachs http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-donald-trump-companies-at-least-650-million-in-debt/

Hillary Clinton + her Foundation + a liberal orgy that's finally named Chelsea + 1 yamika = "the whole Clinton clan will convene at Goldman Sachs headquarters in Manhattan for a meet and greet with top donors to the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation. The New York Times reported last month" http://freebeacon.com/blog/clintons-sachs-ual-relations/ AND a the reality that 25 million dollars from lost hedge funds at Goldman Sachs = a $10,000,000 apartment for love child in Manhattan. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3584863/Chelsea-Clinton-s-husband-Marc-colleagues-Goldman-Sachs-shutter-25million-hedge-fund-losing-nearly-investors-money-good-thing-10million-apartment.html

Crooked Clinton + 2 Guys from Kansas = Yet another way Clinton is attached to Trump and vice versa because....
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/07/koch-brothers-now-supporting-hillary-clinton.html
Is the same as
Goldman Sachs = Koch=Trump=Clinton
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-10/koch-goldman-agree-to-buy-printing-ink-maker-flint-from-cvc

We've gone full circle and haven't even said anything that hasn't been in the news. Vote? What flippin vote?



Johnson, the pothead that he is (actually...he might not be, but he acts like it) (and with the exception of very few people), I'm not big on potheads, at least he and Stein (whom I loathe) at least are not bought and paid for.... yet. I especially like the last section of what you wrote. I personally, think it's time to start over.
Title: Clinton-Trump Commander in Chief Forum
Post by: DDF on September 07, 2016, 10:37:47 PM
My favorite quote of the night?

"I have a lot of experience handling classified material."
                                                       Hillary Clinton

Yes... you do.... you hand it out like candy on Halloween.


Youtube video removed due to NBC copyright violations.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 07, 2016, 11:39:52 PM
I wanted to shoot Matt Lauer for all his interruptions of Trump.
Title: Re: Clinton-Trump Commander in Chief Forum
Post by: G M on September 08, 2016, 06:21:27 AM
Anyone that thinks that China, Russia and others weren't reading everything in Hillary's servers is a child.


My favorite quote of the night?

"I have a lot of experience handling classified material."
                                                       Hillary Clinton

Yes... you do.... you hand it out like candy on Halloween.


[youtube]irTxkWX5Sz0[/youtube]
Title: Re: Clinton-Trump Commander in Chief Forum
Post by: DDF on September 08, 2016, 07:00:41 AM
Anyone that thinks that China, Russia and others weren't reading everything in Hillary's servers is a child.


My favorite quote of the night?

"I have a lot of experience handling classified material."
                                                       Hillary Clinton

Yes... you do.... you hand it out like candy on Halloween.


You got that right. Oddly, the original video had its settings changed to private. Hillary was getting smashed in the comments section.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 08, 2016, 07:17:25 AM
I wanted to shoot Matt Lauer for all his interruptions of Trump.


Hard to say that it wasn't more than biased. Then again, in a country as polarized as the US is currently, one of them was going to get hit.
Title: Gary Johnson cites the Libertarian platform
Post by: G M on September 08, 2016, 08:37:47 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAiFSHfMeio

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAiFSHfMeio[/youtube]

Campaign stop at a convenience store.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 08, 2016, 09:00:55 AM
Evidently NBC is hammering anyone that is using the video. My apologies.

I'll remove it so it doesn't chew up space.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on September 08, 2016, 09:05:45 AM
Evidently NBC is hammering anyone that is using the video. My apologies.

I'll remove it so it doesn't chew up space.



Memory holes gotta eat.
Title: Strassel
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 09, 2016, 09:27:18 AM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-blitz-begins-1473375660?tesla=y

The Trump Blitz Begins
The GOP nominee is finally—relentlessly—arguing that Clinton is unfit for office.
0:00 / 0:00

Potomac Watch Columnist Kim Strassel on Donald Trump’s most effective political attack yet--on Hillary Clinton’s ethics. Photo credit: Reuters.
 
By
KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
Sept. 8, 2016 7:01 p.m. ET
883 COMMENTS

Think of it as the moment when Donald Trump truly learned to throw a (campaign) punch. It came about three weeks ago, amid the latest swirl of stories on the Clintons’ ethics. Hillary Clinton had recently blamed her private email server on Colin Powell.Judicial Watch had released more emails that showed the Clinton Foundation begging the State Department for special favors on behalf of its donors. Bill Clinton had floated laughable plans to reform the foundation.
The Trump campaign pounced. It began blasting out every new revelation about—or editorial-board comment on—Mrs. Clinton’s shady dealings. It unleashed surrogates, in particular the former prosecutors Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie, to make the legal case against her. Mr. Trump devoted a significant portion of a speech in Texas to detailing the lies she had told about her server, and the pay-to-play allegations at the foundation. Within a few days the campaign had cut a web ad hitting her for “corruption” and calling the foundation a “slush fund.”

Mrs. Clinton’s slip in the polls is a direct result of the latest flood of scandal. Less noticed is the skillful way that Team Trump is making those hits land. The Republican nominee’s campaign has been doing more right lately, though nothing more so than this. When it comes to the dissection of Mrs. Clinton’s misdeeds, the Trump campaign is firing on 16 cylinders.

If attacking your corrupt opponent on corruption seems obvious, it wasn’t to Mr. Trump for a long time. The GOP nominee is a scrapper, and part of his draw was the expectation that he would speak bluntly about the Clintons. He did, though as voters would soon realize, only in fits and incomplete starts. He delivered a speech on her ethics in June—then never sustained the argument. He ignored prime opportunities (the State Department inspector general report; FBI Director James Comey’s press conference), flitting to other subjects instead. He seemed to think the occasional #CrookedHillary tweet was enough.

This was frustrating if only because Mrs. Clinton’s venality is the concrete with which Mr. Trump must pave his road to the White House. This is a woman whom close to two-thirds of voters view as untrustworthy. She has based her entire campaign around the argument that she is more credible and competent to lead the nation—a claim utterly undermined by revelations about her foundation’s business model, her cavalier handling of classified information, and her inability to “recall” most of her tenure as secretary of state.

Mr. Trump’s new approach is to unrelentingly hit all sides of that claim—making the case that Mrs. Clinton is “unfit” to hold the top job. Case in point: After Wednesday’s commander-in-chief forum on NBC, the Trump campaign detailed precisely why Mrs. Clinton should not be trusted with national security. Mr. Trump hit her during the forum, while a follow-up press release highlighted her bad judgment in using an “illicit” email server and the risk of a “hack of classified info”; noted how her drone emails would “undermine” security; and flagged her stumbling attempt to tell a vet in the audience why she should be held to a different standard on classified information than military officers. Good, smart stuff.

The unrelenting pressure has put Mrs. Clinton in the spotlight and on the defense. That by consequence has somewhat sheltered the Republican nominee from attacks. Listening to Mrs. Clinton—the subject of an FBI investigation, the facilitator of the Crown Prince of Bahrain—on Wednesday drop a line about Mr. Trump’s “scams” and “frauds” was downright amusing. Sort of like watching Al Capone accuse Eliot Ness of having the occasional light beer.

Also effective has been the campaign’s drumbeat about Mrs. Clinton’s refusal to hold press conferences. (“Hiding Hillary: Day 278!”) Her longtime approach to scandals has been to ignore them and wait for the press to get weary. But the stories keep pouring out this time, and her refusal to address them has made her look shady, arrogant, slippery. She finally succumbed to pressure and took a few cursory questions from reporters Thursday, though none on the email or foundation.

Mr. Trump’s new all-in-on-Hillary approach came about the same time as his staff shakeup. It is likely due in part to the presence of Breitbart’s Stephen Bannon and (more recently) Citizens United’s David Bossie. The press has focused on Breitbart’s fractious role in the conservative world, but Mr. Bannon and Mr. Bossie have both devoted careers to tracking and exposing Mrs. Clinton’s ethical troubles.

Turning voters away from Mrs. Clinton is the groundwork. Mr. Trump still needs to give voters a reason to turn toward him. His sober approach of recent weeks is a start. A challenge will be to translate what has so far been campaign-engineered press releases and speeches into an on-the-fly prosecution of Mrs. Clinton during the presidential debates. Mr. Trump is right that Hillary is unfit to be president. Now, to keep proving it.
Title: For troops, a tone deaf forum
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 10, 2016, 06:08:30 PM

By Jeremy Stern
Sept. 9, 2016 6:43 p.m. ET
83 COMMENTS

Wednesday’s “Commander-in-Chief Forum” between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump showed how out of touch America’s leadership is with the nation’s military. The televised interviews were an opportunity for the candidates to audition for leader of the armed forces. What followed were stale discussions that answered few of the questions troops actually have. Though the forum was held before a group of veterans, the questions asked and selectively fielded from the audience put America’s civil-military divide on full display.

The first sign that politicians and journalists are not at home talking policy with military personnel is their fixation on the Iraq war. Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Trump and NBC host Matt Lauer touched on this topic four times. (How to win the war on terror, by contrast, was asked exactly once.) Like many politicians, the candidates competed for the honor of supporting the 2003 invasion of Iraq the least. The underlying assumption is that, having paid the highest price, troops must have the lowest opinion of that unpopular war. Perhaps, but members of the military have a much more complicated relationship to unpopular wars than ordinary citizens assume.

From the first day of basic training, soldiers are indoctrinated to the principle of civilian control. Every member of the military has taken a solemn oath to obey the president and defend the Constitution. Troops understand that their job is implementation, not policy, and that not every decision made in the White House is going to be the right one. Not every war will be vindicated, not every casualty justified. That’s life in a liberal democracy.

What troops want is a president who will deliver the resources, strategy and public support they need to win once the decision to go to war is made. Far more consequential to troops than the decision to invade Iraq was the Pentagon’s inability to provide them with the equipment they needed and the public’s collapse of support for the war they were asked to fight. Rather than renounce or deny support for Iraq like beauty contestants reciting their wish for world peace, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump should have been asked what lessons they learned from Iraq and why next time will be different.

Another sign that politicians and journalists are unfamiliar with military life is what Mr. Lauer called the “emotional burden” of putting “American men and women in harm’s way,” which was discussed six different times. Troops don’t like war more than other people, and their families certainly abhor it most. But war plays a more complex role in the lives of troops than the hackneyed “boots on the ground” versus “war weariness” debate we often have.

For hundreds of thousands of troops, the military is not just a choice and a job; it is a necessity and a calling. The U.S. armed forces offer a paycheck, pension, health care, housing, community and purpose to many young Americans who would struggle to find them elsewhere. Members of the military understand that in exchange their country may call upon them to go to war.

For most troops, this is not a deal with the devil. Experience in war allows young soldiers to gain the trust and respect of their superiors and subordinates, and combat deployments are essential to their promotion through the ranks. Deployments are also an opportunity for troops to apply their skills and training and to be awarded for doing so with integrity and distinction.

It’s not always popular to say, but there are very few people in the military who haven’t made peace with the dangers that entails. War is a physical and psychological risk, yes, but it is also an opportunity to seek honor and adventure. You might not know it if your contact with millennials is mainly on campuses where political correctness and microagressions can be an obsession, but honor and adventure are very natural things for young Americans to want. Last I heard, the rank-and-file still like Reagan, Roosevelt and Lincoln more than Carter, Hoover or Buchanan.

Apart from so many questions on military intervention and Iraq, only one question was asked about the Department of Veterans Affairs. By contrast, five questions were asked about Vladimir Putin. Each candidate was asked just once about the alarming rate of suicide among veterans, while a combined 14 questions went to Mrs. Clinton’s email scandal and Mr. Trump’s history of controversial, media-baiting comments. Sequestration, which has contributed to the Pentagon’s decision to cut tens of thousands of troops from service and slash billions of dollars from their benefits, was never mentioned.

A leadership class with more military experience and closer ties to the military community would enrich our national-security debate. For now, it seems, we’re stuck with an elite increasingly out of touch with those who serve. No wonder a July survey of Military Times subscribers found that more than 82% of military personnel were “dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with Mrs. Clinton as the Democratic nominee, and more than 61% felt that way about Mr. Trump as the GOP nominee.

The candidate who wins the military vote will be the one who stops using troops to justify campaign positions, and starts speaking to the concerns our men and women in uniform actually have.
Title: Reducing Petraeus to rubble
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 10, 2016, 06:46:20 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjcTb2ORVd0

http://ijr.com/opinion/2016/09/259944-democrats-check-hillary-told-general-petraeus-2007-flipping-trump/?utm_campaign=bencarson&utm_medium=partners&utm_source=facebook&utm_term=prm6
Title: When swinging goes awry
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 10, 2016, 06:59:05 PM
second post

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/new-photos-bill-clinton-trump-melania-227945
Title: Illary medical episode at 9/11 memorial
Post by: G M on September 11, 2016, 07:57:02 AM
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/709501/hillary-clinton-health-9-11-ceremony-medical-episode-coughing-faint

Hidden.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 11, 2016, 08:04:11 AM
The media "barred from leaving the area".

All these episodes do beg the question as to whether she is physically fit to be President.   I guess one could say she will just have to rest and not play golf for 1/4 of the year like Bamster once she is President.

Maybe she needs to speak softly and stop screaming and yelling with her patent scowl in order to rest her larynx more.

Maybe she has HPV from FSF.
Title: Unconfirmed video of medevac from 9/11 memorial
Post by: G M on September 11, 2016, 09:51:10 AM
https://mobile.twitter.com/zgazda66/status/774993814025011200

82 degrees, 38% humidity today.
Title: Basket of health issues
Post by: G M on September 11, 2016, 10:13:24 AM
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/09/11/breaking-video-of-hillary-fainting-after-leaving-911-ceremony/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 11, 2016, 11:58:34 AM
From a different site.

http://libertyviral.com/breaking-new-video-hillarys-medical-episode-emerges-video/#axzz4Jxnla900

This looks like cause for serious attention , , ,
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 11, 2016, 04:57:42 PM
Not going to post another video showing it, but I've worked a significant number of details like these here in Mexico.

You NEVER want to touch the principal.

The point man had to actually smash Clinton's right breast, with his left hand in order to prevent her from going down, until the agent working right flank could support Clinton as well.

She's got more than pneumonia.

Title: "Side of beef"
Post by: G M on September 11, 2016, 07:59:30 PM
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/11/cnn-secret-service-agents-helped-van-law-enforcement-says-threw-like-side-beef/

Panic?
Title: Baraq on the Empress Dowager in 2008
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 11, 2016, 10:32:53 PM
https://www.facebook.com/ProgressiveViewsUSA/videos/1777765265845939/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 12, 2016, 04:11:46 AM
Evan Sanjay Gupta last night reported how the Clinton mob was going to cover up her pneumonia.  Supposedly it was diagnosed Friday.  Though for all we know it was not 3 days ago but the Friday 10 days ago when one thinks about how the Clintons lie using word games.   Either way this was not even going to be reported until they were forced to say something about her condition with the publicity of the the having the Secret Service throw her into the van like a pork roll.  (or a can of span).

Again the Clintons caught in a cover up and lie.  

BTW I was proud of Dr Gupta saying the truth last night about this and was frankly surprised as was obviously Poppy Whorelow whose facial expression gave away at her panic at his saying anything disparaging about her feminist warrior queen.   If I had to listen to one more CNN "host" point out "to be fair"  Trump has released even less health records then her highness the Empress Dowager.  :?
Title: 2 nd post
Post by: ccp on September 12, 2016, 04:24:47 AM
In the very unlikely event Clinton had to drop out ( meaning she drops dead)  picking a replacement would no be straight forward at all according to this:

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/09/if-hillary-had-to-leave-the-ticket-this-is-how-a-n.html

The Supremes again?

Title: Re: "Side of beef"
Post by: DDF on September 12, 2016, 06:08:46 AM
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/11/cnn-secret-service-agents-helped-van-law-enforcement-says-threw-like-side-beef/

Panic?

I'm certain that the Secret Service is better than we are, but we're also pretty good at what we do.

My experience? I've worked the Enrique Peña Nieto's perimeter, the Dalai Lama, UN personnel, the governor, my general, and other things.

First off, they often times don't even like us, so they wouldn't want to be touched by us anyways. In my general's case, as far as myself and my squad are concerned, we almost revere our general, and wouldn't want to touch him because he's our general. In the case for example, of a visiting governor's wife I had to provide security for, the reasons are obvious. If you touch the principal or throw them around, it denotes either danger or carelessness, neither of which are good.

It was damage control at best, and panic at worst. I'm leaning towards the former due to the way they closed, preventing any additional footage from being taken. Also interesting, was the fact that the Secret Service didn't allow certain press members to leave afterwards. I forget where I read that, but I did. I'll see if I can't find it and post it here.

First EDIT: Former SS Agents stating protocol was broken (which I would agree with, if for no other reason than Clinton was left exposed - leaning against the concrete post and with a visible lack of agents surrounding her). http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/secret-service-followed-atypical-protocol-with-clinton-s-early-departure-from-sunday-911-event-a7237706.html

The Secret Service denied that protocol was broken (not surprising), but then again, they sully themselves with prostitutes in foreign countries, so who's to say?

"However, in a tweet Sunday evening the Secret Service said it had not violated protocol. " http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/295353-secret-service-may-have-broken-protocol-while-protecting

In fact, they have tweeted about it twice now. https://twitter.com/SecretService?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"The @SecretService is confident in the actions taken by its Protective Detail earlier today."
and
"FACT CHECK: At no time did @SecretService personnel violate security protocols during the early departure of one of our protectees."

Personally, I think them even explaining it makes the situation look worse.
Title: Re: "Side of beef"
Post by: G M on September 12, 2016, 07:42:36 AM
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/11/cnn-secret-service-agents-helped-van-law-enforcement-says-threw-like-side-beef/

Panic?

I'm certain that the Secret Service is better than we are, but we're also pretty good at what we do.

My experience? I've worked the Enrique Peña Nieto's perimeter, the Dalai Lama, UN personnel, the governor, my general, and other things.

First off, they often times don't even like us, so they wouldn't want to be touched by us anyways. In my general's case, as far as myself and my squad are concerned, we almost our general, and wouldn't want to touch him because he's our general. In the case for example, of a visiting governor's wife I had to provide security for, the reasons are obvious. If you touch the principal or throw them around, it denotes either danger or carelessness, neither of which are good.

It was damage control at best, and panic at worst. I'm leaning towards the former due to the way they closed, preventing any additional footage from being taken. Also interesting, was the fact that the Secret Service didn't allow certain press members to leave afterwards. I forget where I read that, but I did. I'll see if I can't find it and post it here.

First EDIT: Former SS Agents stating protocol was broken (which I would agree with, if for no other reason than Clinton was left exposed - leaning against the concrete post and with a visible lack of agents surrounding her). http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/secret-service-followed-atypical-protocol-with-clinton-s-early-departure-from-sunday-911-event-a7237706.html

The Secret Service denied that protocol was broken (not surprising), but then again, they sully themselves with prostitutes in foreign countries, so who's to say?

"However, in a tweet Sunday evening the Secret Service said it had not violated protocol. " http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/295353-secret-service-may-have-broken-protocol-while-protecting

In fact, they have tweeted about it twice now. https://twitter.com/SecretService?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"The @SecretService is confident in the actions taken by its Protective Detail earlier today."
and
"FACT CHECK: At no time did @SecretService personnel violate security protocols during the early departure of one of our protectees."

Personally, I think them even explaining it makes the situation look worse.

Yes. Typically they never comment at all about their protective details, from what I have seen.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on September 12, 2016, 07:55:36 AM
I have some EP training, the closest to working an EP detail I have done is protect two scantily clad young women promoting a cigarette brand at a biker rally filled with a lot of 1%ers.

Having said that, I know that you want to keep the principal in a secure location until you can move them to their transportation for rapid loading and departure. Having Ill-ary propped up and waiting for a vehicle was not a good thing from a protection perspective.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 12, 2016, 07:57:06 AM
I have some EP training, the closest to working an EP detail I have done is protect two scantily clad young women promoting a cigarette brand at a biker rally filled with a lot of 1%ers.

Having said that, I know that you want to keep the principal in a secure location until you can move them to their transportation for rapid loading and departure. Having Ill-ary propped up and waiting for a vehicle was not a good thing from a protection perspective.


100%. We've been screamed at because of it, when it's happened.
Title: The Dead Witch Crisis
Post by: G M on September 12, 2016, 08:03:44 AM
http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=8546

The Dead Witch Crisis
Posted on September 11, 2016   

The news is now full of reports that Hillary Clinton had some sort of “episode” as she was getting into her assisted living van. It’s possible she was still drunk from the night before or maybe just so hungover she could barely walk. The campaign says she has pneumonia, which could mean anything or nothing. She has disappeared from sight so we’re left to speculate, but she is clearly a woman with serious health problems. The question people are beginning to ask is can she continue to campaign? If not, will she be forced to drop out? What would happen if she did?

The funny thing about all of this is most Americans don’t know how we actually select Presidents. The voting that is done in November will not, as a legal matter, select the next President. Voting merely selects the electors who will then meet on the Monday after the second Wednesday in December. They actually meet in their respective state capitals where they cast their votes for President and Vice President. All but Maine and Nebraska have a winner take all system for selecting electors so your vote sort of matters, unless you live in a one-party state.

Similarly, each state has rules for getting on the November ballot. For example, Evan McMuffin, the Never Trump candidate, missed the deadline to be on many state ballots. This applies to the party candidates, as well, so a last minute change would create complications for the Democrats. If Hillary Clinton was suddenly incapacitated or simply quit the race, the Democrats would have a problem. They would have to go to court in some states to have their new candidate listed on the ballot. It’s not impossible, but it would be a complication.

So, what are the possible scenarios?

At this late date, finding a replacement would be complicated. The Democrat Party has rules for this scenario so they could move quickly. The rules strongly encourage the party to pick the runner up, but they can pick anyone to fill the slot. Bernie Sanders would be the obvious option, but that would mean certain defeat to Donald Trump, the nightmare scenario for both parties. The Bernie Bros are committed, but their numbers are limited. Most Americans would assume his nomination is a surrender.

They could go with a famous person with some traction in the party, but the choices are limited. Joe Biden is famous, but old and prone to saying wildly offensive things to black people and women. Elizabeth Warren is popular with the crazies, but she scares normal people. She’s also a very poor campaigner. She passed on a chance to run and passed on the VP spot. This makes forcing Clinton aside a troublesome scenario simply because the other options are only slightly better than having a corpse at the top of the ticket,

That brings up another option. Imagine that on Halloween it is reported that Clinton fell off her broom again and hit her head, rendering her incapacitated. The Democrats could reach out to Congressional Republicans and ask for a delay in the election. Congress does not have the power to dictate when people vote. They do have the power to decide when the Electors must be selected by the states. Congress could work with the states to postpone the election to December 3 in order to sort things out.

This brings us back to the first scenario, but the difference here is the crisis feel would open another dimension. The Democrats would feel free to pick anyone they like and would probably consult with the Republicans to come up with a “senior statesman” they could offer up as safe choice in a crisis. In other words, this delay would allow both parties to reset the game board so that the election was no longer about the insurgent Trump versus the corrupt system. Instead, it would be about the steady hand in a time of crisis versus the irrational hothead.

Another scenario, the high risk scenario, is for Congress to cancel the election entirely. Article II gives Congress the power to set the date electors are chosen so they can delay this indefinitely. Speaker Ryan would become acting President until Congress could come up with a new election date. Since Republicans control something like 35 state legislatures, they could stall the process so that they can stack the Electoral College with party members, who would pick a party insider. A governor like Kasich or even Jeb Bush could be installed as president.

Those are the Machiavellian scenarios. Given the nature of the political class, it seems unlikely that any of those would happen, even if Clinton drops dead tomorrow. Even so, it offers a little glimpse into the future. Over the last century, we have invested enormous power into the office of President. If you’re wondering how we can flip from republic to empire, a crisis such as the above would offer the opportunity. One candidate that is unacceptable and one that is dead, opens the door for the political class to bypass the voters and install their own man.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 12, 2016, 08:46:21 AM
Dems could consider Debbie Wasserman Schultz for President.  How about Nancy Pelosi?

Lena Dunham?  George Soros?

Chuck Schumer?  Terry McAullife?

Bring back Sanders?

Mike Boomer Bloomberg to save the world?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 12, 2016, 10:14:02 AM
Thanks for the Dead Witch article GM
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 13, 2016, 05:26:01 AM
I'm sure it's not intentional but the Hillary health scare has become the latest shiny object stopping us from discussing the issues and competing ideologies of governing - even in a Presidential election year.

I really like Trump' attack on the inner city black vote going to Democrats.  If he can break into some of these 'groups', blacks and legal Hispanics, it will be a game changer.

Poll have tightened, very divided and still leaning in Hillary's favor.  Pundits seem to skip over the possibility that the landslide could go Trump's direction.

In the end, the Bush, Romney, Rino and purist groups will all get on board.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 13, 2016, 09:35:36 AM
"the Hillary health scare has become the latest shiny object stopping us from discussing the issues and competing ideologies of governing - even in a Presidential election year."

Its been fun, but agreed.  Unless something else develops, let's move on gents.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 13, 2016, 09:41:34 AM
I'm sure it's not intentional but the Hillary health scare has become the latest shiny object stopping us from discussing the issues and competing ideologies of governing - even in a Presidential election year.

I really like Trump' attack on the inner city black vote going to Democrats.  If he can break into some of these 'groups', blacks and legal Hispanics, it will be a game changer.

Poll have tightened, very divided and still leaning in Hillary's favor.  Pundits seem to skip over the possibility that the landslide could go Trump's direction.

In the end, the Bush, Romney, Rino and purist groups will all get on board.

I disagree completely with the polls being "accurate" in any way.

From every internet thread that I have read, from every video that I have seen on youtube (both the comments, and the liek to dislike ratio), Hillary gets hammered, and people still say that she has a "lead?" Not on your life. In fact, Clinton's own youtube channel has to disable her comments because she gets beaten so badly in them. I'd put the ratio of likes to dislikes at roughly 1 "like" to every five "dislikes" on her videos.

Obviously, this isn't high tech "polling algorithms," but is one to say that only conservative Hillary "haters" use the internet, or have a different rate of usage? I don't think so... plenty of section 8 people with cellphones that you paid for.

Here's a great example:

(https://i.redd.it/c2epply6jxhx.png)

By the way, I watched this video live, from her channel. They had initially allowed comments, but was getting chewed so badly, they had to disable them. I still have the screen shots from it. There were almost NO comments in favor of her.

Also, as seen here in Obama's video supporting Hillary, as reported by Breitbart, deleting comments and generating a huge amount of hatred and vitriol. One simply does not generate these types of numbers against them, and remain "ahead in the polls." Doesn't happen.
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/06/10/comments-scrubbed-youtube-video-obamas-hillary-endorsement/
Title: 2016 Presidential Polls - Tuesday, September 13
Post by: DDF on September 13, 2016, 11:38:55 AM
It's a little suspect, when two California based polls (one by L.A. Times/USC, and the other by KABC/Survey USA), have two different results, one placing Trump three points ahead, and the other placing Clinton 25 points ahead:

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton    LA Times/USC Tracking    Clinton 43, Trump 46    Trump +3
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein    NBC News/SM    Clinton 42, Trump 40, Johnson 11, Stein 4    Clinton +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton    NBC News/SM    Clinton 48, Trump 44    Clinton +4
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein    PPP (D)    Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2    Clinton +6
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton    PPP (D)    Clinton 50, Trump 42    Clinton +8
California: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein    KABC/SurveyUSA    Clinton 57, Trump 32, Johnson 3, Stein 1    Clinton +25

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

Which is why, I trust none of the following numbers from this page, which averages 5 polls and gives you the perception that Clinton is winning:

http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/

But when one reads the fine print (and I did), they state; "* The average includes the most recent poll from each source released within the past ten days. If there are fewer than five qualifying polls, we look back, by date, until up to five^ qualifying polls are found. However, no polls older than 30 days are considered in the average."

So which polls do they use? Oddly, the same one that has Hillary up by 25 points in California. From their page, the link to what polls they use for to obtain their "percentages."
http://www.270towin.com/recent-polls-2016-president-senate/
Note:
Date   Poll Source   Office   Location   Results   Lead
9/12   USC / LA Times   President   California   
Clinton   58
Trump   33   
   +25

Even when one switches to the third party candidate polls, the numbers improve slightly for Trump, but the data is still skewed (garbage in, garbage out).

When we switch to the Electoral polls, we get Clinton beating Trump 273 to 175 (but when you have polls in the same city citing a 22 point difference between polls, how can you trust any of the data for any state at that point? You can't:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-pundit-electoral-map

Perhaps it's just the page. Maybe it's set up by Clinton or Soros? We know this - "270towin.com has received an estimated 1,035,800 visits over the last 30 days. The number of visits differs from visitors (or unique visitors). Visits includes multiple visits from the same individual (repeat visits)." http://www.trafficestimate.com/270towin.com

We know that it is one of the first sights to show on the google search engine when searching the query 2016 presidential polls, so it gets a lot of views, but who owns it, or "realclearpolitics" polls (the number one spot)?" The third poll listed is the NY Times, owned by Arthur Ochs Sulzberger, Jr., who uses his position and wealth to drive leftist ideology... to whom, Clinton donated $100,000 (and perhaps more on other occasions) http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-donated-100k-to-new-york-times-group-the-same-year-paper-endorsed-her/

So.... who owns the first two polling websites?

RealClearPolitics - "The web site was founded in 2000 by McIntyre, a former trader at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, and Bevan, a former advertising agency account executive. McIntyre explained "it really wasn't any more complicated than there should be a place online that pulled together all this quality information".
1. John McIntyre - his words - "As a registered Democrat, I have only a detached and anthropological interest in the current ruction within the Republican Party." No bias there.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/language-blog/bal-not-a-member-of-an-organized-political-party-just-a-democrat-20160325-story.html
2. Tom Bevan - "Our guest Tom Bevan, co-founder and Executive Editor of RealClearPolitics, tackles the subject of Trump’s knowledge (or lack there-of)..." http://radio.foxnews.com/2016/03/28/tom-bevan-hillary-vs-trump-democrats-are-nervous/ Again... no bias there. Also, Bevan happens to be a History major. No liberal leanings there.
3. "RealClearPolitics is the trusted news source for the day's critical issues. In a crowded digital media environment, Washington D.C. insiders and national influencers rely on RealClearPolitics to provide authoritative, complete, and non-partisan reporting. - That was a lie. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/media_kit/

270toWin - "270toWin is a non-partisan, educational website covering presidential and congressional elections through content and interactive maps." http://www.270towin.com/advertising/ but are they really? Let's see.
1. Allan Keiter -"For outside perspective, we turned to Allan Keiter, the founder of the 270towin website," in which Democrats are seeking a strategy to prevent Republicans from winning the presidency  - http://politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/sep/12/gilberto-hinojosa/gilberto-hinojosa-says-if-democrat-carries-texas-c/
2. Who is Allen Keiter? - General Manager -270toWin- June 2004 – Present (12 years 4 months) https://www.linkedin.com/in/allankeiter
   Alanta, Georgia, but a Philly native  - https://www.intelius.com/people/Allan-Keiter/060g84sk73w - https://www.facebook.com/allan.keiter
  It's hard to nail this guy's political affiliation down, but he has been quoted by several leftist, news sources, he likes yoga, subscribes to NBC, but not to Fox, and allows for Liberal advertising on his 270toWin website "Inside the Clinton Whitehouse," and every other article on his site are pro democrat. It should also be noted that his wife is also a Democrat, having university connections to Connecticut, and having donated at least a $1000 here ( http://individual-contributors.insidegov.com/d/c/Elizabeth-Clubb ).

The polls are beyond skewed.
  

Title: You might be a deplorable if:
Post by: DougMacG on September 15, 2016, 09:47:54 AM
Didn’t Barack Obama say a few months back that a candidate couldn’t insult his way to the presidency?

You may be a deplorable if you stand for the National Anthem.

Or if you know all the words to the Pledge of Allegiance, especially, “under God” (and liberty before justice).

Or if you [buy groceries] with your own money.

If you’re deployable, you’re definitely deplorable.

If you don’t have an Obamaphone and you don’t believe that global warming is “settled science” — can you say deplorable?

Saying Merry Christmas — Deplorable with a capital D!

You may be a deplorable if you wouldn’t mind showing some ID at the local precinct before you vote.

You may be a deplorable if all of your children have the same last name — and it’s your last name.

Nothing says deplorable like the National Rifle Association.

If you liked your doctor and wanted to keep your doctor — you know what you are.

You may be a deplorable if you don’t think you should have to press one for English.

You may be a deplorable if you identify as a member of the gender in which you were born.

You are a deplorable if you believe All Lives Matter.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/howie_carr/2016/09/carr_some_quick_easy_steps_to_tell_if_you_re_a_deplorable
Title: Re: You might be a deplorable if:
Post by: G M on September 15, 2016, 10:03:20 AM
If you think male and female are actual biologically based concepts.

If you think some cultures are better than others.

Didn’t Barack Obama say a few months back that a candidate couldn’t insult his way to the presidency?

You may be a deplorable if you stand for the National Anthem.

Or if you know all the words to the Pledge of Allegiance, especially, “under God” (and liberty before justice).

Or if you [buy groceries] with your own money.

If you’re deployable, you’re definitely deplorable.

If you don’t have an Obamaphone and you don’t believe that global warming is “settled science” — can you say deplorable?

Saying Merry Christmas — Deplorable with a capital D!

You may be a deplorable if you wouldn’t mind showing some ID at the local precinct before you vote.

You may be a deplorable if all of your children have the same last name — and it’s your last name.

Nothing says deplorable like the National Rifle Association.

If you liked your doctor and wanted to keep your doctor — you know what you are.

You may be a deplorable if you don’t think you should have to press one for English.

You may be a deplorable if you identify as a member of the gender in which you were born.

You are a deplorable if you believe All Lives Matter.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/columnists/howie_carr/2016/09/carr_some_quick_easy_steps_to_tell_if_you_re_a_deplorable
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, state of the economy coming into the election; black vote
Post by: DougMacG on September 15, 2016, 10:22:11 AM
There is something odd about Pres. Obama having a positive job approval rating (just barely).  Maybe it's personal.  These economic results don't deserve approval.  Maybe the numbers quoted here bear more closely on the election possibilities of his chosen successor:

More people rate the economy poor than good or excellent combined.

Nearly twice as many say getting worse over getting better.

4 More Years!  (sarcasm alert)

Last week, 26 percent of people surveyed in Gallup’s poll of Americans’ confidence in the economy rated current economic conditions as excellent or good, while 30 percent labeled them poor. Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said their economic outlook was “getting better” compared with 57 percent who said it was “getting worse.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/business/economy/census-poverty-income-donald-trump.html?_r=0
------------------------

Previously noted:
"I really like Trump' attack on the inner city black vote going to Democrats.  If he can break into some of these 'groups', blacks and legal Hispanics, it will be a game changer."

Trump is now polling 26% support from blacks in South Carolina:
http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/14/trump-gets-nearly-26-percent-of-the-black-vote-in-new-poll/

For Obama nationwide in two cycles I think the black vote was 98% with high turnout.  None of that enthusiasm translates to Hillary.  HRC cannot afford to lose much ground in a close election.  The undecided and discouraged will stay home and some others will give their support to Trump.  What do they have to lose?  

This is also a critical mass question.  People are all of one view because everyone they know is all of that view.  Enter some honest debate and skepticism.  Welfare 'rights' isn't a better life.  Grow the economy stupid. (Paraphrasing Bill Clinton's 1992 staff)

He is also toning down his round 'em up, send 'em home message for the so-called 11 million.  If legal Hispanics vote based on economic opportunity and growth, Trump could beat expectations with them also.  Illegals compete for their jobs too and border security benefits everyone.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on September 15, 2016, 10:25:22 AM
Blacks and Hispanics and blue collar whites are the people hurt most by illegal aliens.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 15, 2016, 12:42:58 PM
"This (black vote) is also a critical mass question.  People are all of one view because everyone they know is all of that view.  Enter some honest debate and skepticism."

Yes.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 15, 2016, 05:05:53 PM
Hillary's Health Gives Trump Huge Opening
By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN
Published on DickMorris.com on September 15, 2016
Hillary's health now gives Donald Trump a second chance to make a good first impression -- something as rare in politics as it is in life.  Already polling is suggesting that Trump is surging in the wake of her collapse at the 9/11 ceremony.  The New York Times/CBS has the race even among all voters and gives Trump a two point lead among likely voters.  Rasmussen has The Donald two ahead. Reuters has it tied. LA Times/USC gives Trump a six point lead.

Animating the data is a sense that she may be far sicker than she is letting on.  Check out this video by a Parkinson's doctor correlating her episodes of fainting etc. with the more serious illness.  Click here to view video.
While Trump's surge is more of a bounce than a shift in the underlying pattern of the race, he has a chance to make it permanent.  If he continues to act presidential and avoid unforced errors, he can assume a permanent, sustainable lead.  Voters are giving him a second look now that Hillary's illness leads them to question her viability.  If they find a dignified, positive alternative in Trump, they are likely to feel more comfortable in backing him.

Already Trump has begun to fill the bill, triggering his surge over the past three weeks -- prior to 9/11.  His visit to flood-ravaged Louisiana, his meeting with the Mexican president, and his policy pronouncements on national security, the economy, immigration, and child care all projected a presidential image effectively.

In the meantime, consider this list, catalogued by WND.com, of Hillary's health episodes:

•  In 1998, while campaigning in New York, her right foot started swelling causing her pain.  Bethesda Naval Hospital doctors diagnosed a large blood clot behind her right knee.

•  In February, 2005, she fainted during a campaign speech and her aides had to catch her to break her fall.  They blamed a gastrointestinal problem.

•  On June 17, 2009, she fell and fractured her right elbow while walking to her car.  The break required surgery.

•  In 2009, Hillary also had a second blood clot that was diagnosed as "deep vein thrombosis," dangerous because the clot could break lose and cause a pulmonary embolism.

•  On January 12, 2011, Hillary tripped and fell boarding a plane.

•  On December 15, 2012, Hillary had to cancel an overseas trip due to a stomach virus.  While ill, she fainted and fell, sustaining a concussion.  Husband Bill said that her injury "required six months of very serious work to get over."

•  On December 31, 2012, during a follow-up exam at New York-Presbyterian Hospital, doctors discovered another blood clot (her third) in a large vein along the side of her head between the brain and the skull.

•  Throughout 2015 and 2016, Hillary has had prolonged coughing fits while giving speeches.  She attributes it to seasonal allergies.

•  On July 21 of this year, Hillary had what appeared to be a seizure while campaigning.  Recorded on video, her head seemed to move uncontrollably for about ten seconds.

•  On September 11th, at a memorial service, she had to leave the event while it was still in progress.  She had to be propped up as she walked to her van and collapsed getting in, losing a shoe in the process.  She revealed later that she had been diagnosed for pneumonia on September 9th but attended the event anyway.

We are entering unexplored territory here.  We have never had a presidential candidate who had to pull out before the election.  If Hillary resigns, the Democratic National Committee, two from each state, will choose her replacement.   While Tim Kaine would get consideration -- and Bernie would get none -- Joe Biden is the likely choice.  And he is harder to beat.  Be careful what you wish for.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 15, 2016, 05:26:32 PM
I notice he picks up on the "parkinson" doctor's theory that she has parkinson's.   

First he is noted to be an anesthesiologist .  Parkisnson's doctors are neurologists so if he is an anesthesiologist he is would not be  a "parkinson's" doctor.

Secondly there is no evidence she looks like the patient in the video .

I don't know if it is her medical  fitness for office or just the fact that she is caught lying again and playing us all for stooges .

In any case thank God for the person who got that video of her falling and the Secret Service agents preventing her from getting  a nose job.

Title: Whoops-- Team Hillary was in at the beginning of the birther riff
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 17, 2016, 05:50:26 PM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/16/hillary-clinton-campaign-manager-admits-birtherism-started/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 17, 2016, 08:06:18 PM
Pravda on the Beach (LA Times) give 19% of black vote to Trump!

Other interesting numbers too.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 17, 2016, 10:18:23 PM
Pravda on the Beach (LA Times) give 19% of black vote to Trump!

Other interesting numbers too.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/


I'm sticking with my original prediction. Trump is going to crush her. Double digits. Even with California letting 3 million illegals vote with their licenses, he'll still kill it.

Edit:

I dropped the ball on Johnson. I didn't think as many people from the Hillary/Sander's camp would support him. Come to find out, he's pretty attractive to them.
Title: Re: Trump Didn't "Ask"
Post by: DDF on September 17, 2016, 10:22:51 PM
Delving deeper, we know that many Sander's voters won't actually jump ship. I think the actual number is closer to 30% (one in three voters for Sanders) Which means, 10 million voters will either vote for Trump, Stein, or Johnson. If we assign half to Stein, and split the rest between Trump and Johnson, here what it looks like in closing:

Trump - 63,500,000
Clinton - 55,640,000
Stein - 5,469,000 (counting her .5 million from 2012)
Johnson - 3,775,000 (counting the 1.27 mil he had from 2012)

I stated that Trump would get 52% of the vote. With 63.5 million and a voter turnout of 128 million, he'd have to be at 66.56 million (well within what he could reach with Sanders bailouts).

I stated that Hillary would be at 44% of the vote or 56.32 million voters of 128 million. Based on Barracks numbers of 66,000,000 in 2012, and a 1/3 to 1/2 of Sander's voters jumping ship, the empress could easily find herself 15 million votes short, putting her as low as 51,000,000, well within the target I have proposed.

Needless to say, these aren't electoral college votes, nor are they swing state votes.

1. Most Latinos already reside in Blue states, BUT.... they aren't interested in seeing other Mexicans other than their immediate family come and take their jobs.
2. States that have been blue could go red because of this, with purple states having an even higher turnover.
3. Trump won't get the Black vote, but at 12%-15% (19 million votes) of the population, and most based in Blue states, he doesn't need it.

Basically what I've come up with.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 17, 2016, 10:42:54 PM
If Hilliary gets the Dem States and the Dem Leaning States she has 272 electoral right now, even if Trump gets all the Undecided plus all the Rep and Rep Leaning States.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 17, 2016, 11:04:37 PM
If Hilliary gets the Dem States and the Dem Leaning States she has 272 electoral right now, even if Trump gets all the Undecided plus all the Rep and Rep Leaning States.


Agreed. I don't think she will though. We've had Mexican delegates come here from Chicago. The president of the Migrants' Clubs of Zacatecas stated that his numbers were,  they have 800,000 illegals registered with the migrants club associated to Zacatecas (from all states, just referring to the ones from Zacatecas), and that of those 800K, that 1.6 million family members (anchor babies, etc.), also depended on them for money (that they were asking from the government here in Zac).

What was interesting, and I quote, "of all the people we have, 20% still live in poverty (hence asking for money), and that 80% have now attained middle class status in the United States."

The Latinos there in the States, are not as friendly to other latinos as one might think, and very well may be the nail in Hillary's coffin because they don't want to risk the jobs they have gained, to other Mexicans. There is very much a rift. I think it will cost the Dems blue states.

Additionally, of the swing states reported right now: http://www.270towin.com/maps/2016-election-toss-up-states

They have AZ listed as a swing state. I don't think it will be. If Trump picks up AZ, CO (almost always blue and has had a huge swing in the polls recently), NV - those aren't that hard to win for Trump. On the Eastern seaboard, obviously Florida is key - lots of upset White people, but also a lot of Cubans and Blacks. I do feel confident that Trump will win PA and VA. NC is a guess, but to say, that if Trump picks up AZ, NV, and CO, with the addition of PA, VA, NC, and FL, he'll have 282 as the map sits right now. Clinton can have OH, MI, WI and IA, and still will only get 250. Florida and NC are what Trump needs to win.
Title: Re: Trump Didn't "Ask"
Post by: G M on September 18, 2016, 12:07:50 AM
National polls don't matter because it's not a national vote. Also, there will be epic levels of fraud and alterations.

Delving deeper, we know that many Sander's voters won't actually jump ship. I think the actual number is closer to 30% (one in three voters for Sanders) Which means, 10 million voters will either vote for Trump, Stein, or Johnson. If we assign half to Stein, and split the rest between Trump and Johnson, here what it looks like in closing:

Trump - 63,500,000
Clinton - 55,640,000
Stein - 5,469,000 (counting her .5 million from 2012)
Johnson - 3,775,000 (counting the 1.27 mil he had from 2012)

I stated that Trump would get 52% of the vote. With 63.5 million and a voter turnout of 128 million, he'd have to be at 66.56 million (well within what he could reach with Sanders bailouts).

I stated that Hillary would be at 44% of the vote or 56.32 million voters of 128 million. Based on Barracks numbers of 66,000,000 in 2012, and a 1/3 to 1/2 of Sander's voters jumping ship, the empress could easily find herself 15 million votes short, putting her as low as 51,000,000, well within the target I have proposed.

Needless to say, these aren't electoral college votes, nor are they swing state votes.

1. Most Latinos already reside in Blue states, BUT.... they aren't interested in seeing other Mexicans other than their immediate family come and take their jobs.
2. States that have been blue could go red because of this, with purple states having an even higher turnover.
3. Trump won't get the Black vote, but at 12%-15% (19 million votes) of the population, and most based in Blue states, he doesn't need it.

Basically what I've come up with.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 18, 2016, 08:57:22 AM
is this possible??? or incorrect? 

 :-o :-o :-o :-D :-D :-D

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-voters-are-turning-from-clinton-to-trump-in-new-poll/
Title: Re: Trump Didn't "Ask"
Post by: DDF on September 18, 2016, 12:43:52 PM
Of course you're correct. Soros and electronic voting. # million illegals voting in California is child's play compared to changing the number electronically. No physical count, nada.

National polls don't matter because it's not a national vote. Also, there will be epic levels of fraud and alterations.

Delving deeper, we know that many Sander's voters won't actually jump ship. I think the actual number is closer to 30% (one in three voters for Sanders) Which means, 10 million voters will either vote for Trump, Stein, or Johnson. If we assign half to Stein, and split the rest between Trump and Johnson, here what it looks like in closing:

Trump - 63,500,000
Clinton - 55,640,000
Stein - 5,469,000 (counting her .5 million from 2012)
Johnson - 3,775,000 (counting the 1.27 mil he had from 2012)

I stated that Trump would get 52% of the vote. With 63.5 million and a voter turnout of 128 million, he'd have to be at 66.56 million (well within what he could reach with Sanders bailouts).

I stated that Hillary would be at 44% of the vote or 56.32 million voters of 128 million. Based on Barracks numbers of 66,000,000 in 2012, and a 1/3 to 1/2 of Sander's voters jumping ship, the empress could easily find herself 15 million votes short, putting her as low as 51,000,000, well within the target I have proposed.

Needless to say, these aren't electoral college votes, nor are they swing state votes.

1. Most Latinos already reside in Blue states, BUT.... they aren't interested in seeing other Mexicans other than their immediate family come and take their jobs.
2. States that have been blue could go red because of this, with purple states having an even higher turnover.
3. Trump won't get the Black vote, but at 12%-15% (19 million votes) of the population, and most based in Blue states, he doesn't need it.

Basically what I've come up with.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Who questioned Obama's birth?
Post by: DougMacG on September 18, 2016, 02:17:38 PM
Barack Obama's publicist called Obama a Kenyan until a week after he announced for President.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/birthers/booklet.asp
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2146622/Barack-Obama-Kenyan-born-2007-according-literary-agency--months-announcing-bid-U-S-presidency.html

Michelle Obama called Barack a Kenyan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E96lAHygeIU&app=desktop   (Approx 2:00 mark)

Hillary Clinton Campaign Manager Admits 2008 Birther Link
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/09/16/hillary-clinton-campaign-manager-admits-birtherism-started/

https://www.americarisingpac.org/video-new-ad-reminds-south-carolina-voters-about-clintons-history-of-shameful-rhetoric/
----------------------------------

What I never understood about the birther question:  If a woman from Kansas gives birth somewhere else, traveling abroad, did the kid just lose his US citizenship?  Did she lose hers?  Are they now citizens, mother and child, of different countries?  I don't think so. 
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 18, 2016, 02:25:23 PM
is this possible??? or incorrect?  

 :-o :-o :-o :-D :-D :-D

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-voters-are-turning-from-clinton-to-trump-in-new-poll/

Yes it's possible!

"Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday. Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent."

That's a 35 point swing.  Undecideds may break for Clinton but the magic is gone in terms of unanimity, enthusiasm and turnout.  There is no offsetting gain for Clinton with whites or anyone else.  Solid liberals are lukewarm on Clinton.

Bill Clinton's magic to help her is gone too, lost his voice, 'd*cking b*mbos' and the fact that the policies he used to grow the economy were Gingrich's, opposite of what HRC supports now.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 19, 2016, 04:59:27 AM
May come down to debates.  Clinton and the moderators will certainly do their best to bait Trump and bring out the worst.  No one can be confident we will not see him give them their wish:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440149/donald-trump-electoral-math-no-path-270-despite-momentum

If only KaliFORicator where still in play. 
Title: Debate rules set by Hillary donors
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 19, 2016, 05:31:53 AM
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/debate-rules-set-hillary-donors/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 19, 2016, 07:29:55 AM
If Hilliary gets the Dem States and the Dem Leaning States she has 272 electoral right now, even if Trump gets all the Undecided plus all the Rep and Rep Leaning States.

Trump will not win this in any kind of a tie or close vote.   He needs to build on the momentum he earned recently and defeat her.  Voting for Trump can't come with shame or embarrassment.  He needs to look and act ready to govern from now until the end of his Presidency.  Anything short of that and he loses.  There will be one or two gaffes.  They need to be corrected quickly.  And there will be mud slung.  He needs to play the part of a great President ready to lead, all day, everyday.  If he wins nationwide by 3-4 points or more, much more, there won't be an electoral vote question.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 19, 2016, 07:59:18 AM
If Hilliary gets the Dem States and the Dem Leaning States she has 272 electoral right now, even if Trump gets all the Undecided plus all the Rep and Rep Leaning States.

Trump will not win this in any kind of a tie or close vote.   He needs to build on the momentum he earned recently and defeat her.  Voting for Trump can't come with shame or embarrassment.  He needs to look and act ready to govern from now until the end of his Presidency.  Anything short of that and he loses.  There will be one or two gaffes.  They need to be corrected quickly.  And there will be mud slung.  He needs to play the part of a great President ready to lead, all day, everyday.  If he wins nationwide by 3-4 points or more, much more, there won't be an electoral vote question.

100% agreed. It needs to be obvious, so much so, that it would cause a national calamity if he isn't elected. Even then, I'm not sure that someone (who that would be, is a good question), wouldn't alter the vote count. In fact, being that we're asking that, who exactly is in charge of insuring votes aren't rigged, are by citizens, and have been counted correctly. What is their method of doing so and the proof required?

Title: Vote Counting
Post by: DDF on September 19, 2016, 12:31:15 PM
In regard to the post I just made, I came across this link: http://www.wanttoknow.info/votingproblems , which makes some extraordinary claims, such as:

1. 80% of all U.S. votes (not just electronic) are counted by these two: Diebold and ES&S.
2. The president of Diebold and a vice president of ES&S are brothers.


What is amazing to me, is that many of the links contained in the page, now turn up 404 error messages that the pages no longer exist.

If these claims are true, it is amazing to me, that electronic votes, that have no physical proof, that are in the hands of two brothers, who hand out management positions to convicted felons, are allowed anywhere near counting the voices of any American. I'll see what else I can find, but I have to say, some of the deleted links come from widely read newspapers or even the Diebold site itself.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 19, 2016, 02:17:01 PM
This is excellent work DDF.  Please post in on the SEIU/Electoral fraud thread as well as here.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 19, 2016, 02:40:57 PM
This is excellent work DDF.  Please post in on the SEIU/Electoral fraud thread as well as here.


Tailwags Guru. In fact, before I post anything else, I need to read the entire SEIU thread to make sure that I'm not replicating anything. I've already turned up some things, but want to make sure that I'm not just regurgitating something that someone else here has posted.

The search function here on the forum only returns three instances of Diebold, zero instances of Premier Election Solutions, and likewise, zero for ESS or (Election Systems and Software). In liue of reading the entire thread, I am going to go with the search results that it isn't widely discussed, though Bigdog has mentioned it here at least once. I will see if I can find his article as well.

The thread started primarily with ACORN fraud as you all know.

Diebold, now know as Premier Election Solutions, is notoriously tight lipped about their operations.
Title: Gates on the EDC and the Donald
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 19, 2016, 09:21:20 PM
Excellent DDF.

==============


By Robert M. Gates
Sept. 16, 2016 6:23 p.m. ET
1285 COMMENTS

You wouldn’t know it from the presidential campaigns, but the first serious crisis to face our new president most likely will be international. The list of possibilities is long—longer than it was eight years ago.

Here is the world the new president will inherit at noon on January 20—a range of challenges for which neither candidate has offered new strategies or paths forward.

Every aspect of our relationship with China is becoming more challenging. In addition to Chinese cyberspying and theft of intellectual property, many American businesses in China are encountering an increasingly hostile environment. China’s nationalist determination unilaterally to assert sovereignty over disputed waters and islands in the East and South China Seas is steadily increasing the risk of military confrontation.

Most worrying, given their historic bad blood, escalation of a confrontation between China and Japan could be very dangerous. As a treaty partner of Japan, we would be obligated to help Tokyo. China intends to challenge the U.S. for regional dominance in East Asia over the long term, but the new president could quickly face a Chinese military challenge over disputed islands and freedom of navigation.

Dealing effectively with China requires a president with strategic acumen and vision, nuance, deft diplomatic and political skill, and sound instincts on when to challenge, when to stay silent and when to compromise or partner.

On this most complex challenge, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump has said or done much to give anyone confidence. All we really know is Mr. Trump’s intention to launch a trade war with a country holding over $1 trillion in U.S. debt and the largest market for many U.S. companies; and Mrs. Clinton’s opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which she helped to craft and the failure of which would hand China an easy political and economic win.

Then there is Vladimir Putin’s Russia, now routinely challenging the U.S. and its allies. How to count the ways. There was the armed seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea; Moscow’s military support of the separatist movement in eastern Ukraine; overt and covert intimidation of the Baltic states; the dispatch of fighter and bomber aircraft to avert the defeat of Syria’s Assad; sales of sophisticated weaponry to Iran.

There is Russia’s luring the U.S. secretary of state into believing that a cease-fire in Syria is just around the corner—if only the U.S. would do more, or less, depending on the issue; the cyberattacks on the U.S., including possible attempts to influence the U.S. presidential election; and covert efforts to aggravate division and weakness with the European Union and inside European countries. And there is the dangerously close buzzing of U.S. Navy ships in the Baltic Sea and close encounters with U.S. military aircraft in international airspace.

The only thing longer than the list of hostile Russian actions abroad is the list of repressive actions inside Russia to stifle dissent and strengthen Mr. Putin’s security services-run state. Mr. Putin will continue to behave aggressively until confronted and stopped.

No one in the West wants a return to the Cold War, so the challenge is to confront and stop Mr. Putin’s aggressions while pursuing cooperation on international challenges that can only be addressed successfully if Russia is at the table—from terrorism to climate change, from the Syrian conflict to nuclear nonproliferation and arms control. Again, neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Trump has expressed any views on how they would deal with Mr. Putin (although Mr. Trump’s expressions of admiration for the man and his authoritarian regime are naive and irresponsible).

North Korea and Iran are sworn enemies of the U.S. North Korean potentate Kim Jong Un is building more nuclear weapons for his arsenal even as he develops ballistic missiles that now, or very soon, can reach all of our allies (and U.S. military forces) in Asia. During the first term of the next president these missiles will be able to reach the U.S. mainland.

On his good days, Kim Jong Un appears to outsiders as a cartoonish megalomaniac; on his bad days, he seems to yearn for a Gotterdammerung finale in which a perishing North Korea takes a lot of Asians and Americans with it. Or is he simply continuing to pursue a strategy designed to preserve his rule and North Korea’s independence through nuclear blackmail? The new U.S. president could face an early North Korean provocation against the South, the Japanese or us, and for sure will be confronted by a long-term strategic nuclear threat to our allies and to America.

Regarding Iran, whatever value Mr. Obama’s nuclear agreement has brought, the deal has led to no decrease in Iran’s aggressive meddling in the Middle East nor any lessening of its hostility to the U.S. Iranian naval challenges to U.S. warship operations in the Persian Gulf have nearly doubled over the last year. Iran will do all it can to embarrass the U.S.—such as allowing Russian planes to use Iranian airfields to attack the Syrian opposition and testing ballistic missiles—even as it strives to eject us from the entire region. Our new president had best be prepared for an early test of U.S. resolve in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s continuing regional subversion.

While Mrs. Clinton gave a speech on Iran over a year ago, she has since offered no inkling of her views and has said little about North Korea. Mr. Trump has said nary a word on the challenge posed by either country.

Both candidates have spelled out how they would deal with ISIS, and terrorism more broadly, but their approach in essence sounds like what President Obama is doing now—with more ideological fervor and some additional starch. Neither has addressed what the broader U.S. strategy should be toward a Middle East in flames, from Syria to Iraq to Libya, and where Gulf Arab states worry about their own stability amid growing doubts they can rely on the U.S.; both Egypt and Turkey are ruled by increasingly authoritarian strongmen; and an Israeli-Palestinian conflict further from resolution than ever.

Mr. Trump has suggested we should walk away from the region and hope for the best. This is a dangerous approach oblivious to the reality that what happens in the Middle East doesn’t stay in the Middle East. Mrs. Clinton has ruled out putting U.S. ground troops in Iraq and Syria “ever again.” That is a politically driven categorical declaration of a sort no president (or candidate) should make, and it raises the question whether she would pull out the 5,000 U.S. troops now in Iraq. She has expressed no new ideas to deal with the boiling caldron that is today’s Middle East.

Each of these challenges may require the use of the American military, the most powerful the world has ever seen. The president commands some two million men and women in uniform, and every previous president would attest that the decision to put those lives at risk is the weightiest burden of office. Yet neither candidate has seriously addressed how he or she thinks about the military, the use of military force, the criteria they would apply before sending that force into battle, or broader questions of peace and war. Based on what each candidate has said and done, who can we trust with the lives of young Americans in uniform?

Both candidates have a credibility problem in foreign affairs. Mrs. Clinton was the senior-most advocate for using the U.S. military to bring ill-fated regime change in Libya and, further, failed to anticipate the chaos that would follow—the same failure she and other Democrats hung around the neck of the Bush 43 administration in post-Saddam Iraq. She was for trade agreements before she turned against them in this election campaign, just as she voted for the Iraq war in 2003 and then, several years later—in her first campaign for president—opposed the troop surge there. She has much-discussed credibility issues apart from national security, but these also influence foreign perceptions of reliability and trust.

When it comes to credibility problems, though, Donald Trump is in a league of his own. He has expressed support for building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico; for torturing suspected terrorists and killing their families; for Mr. Putin’s dictatorial leadership and for Saddam Hussein’s nonexistent successes against terrorism. He also has said he is for using defense spending by NATO allies as the litmus test on whether the U.S. will keep its treaty commitments to them; for withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe, South Korea and Japan and for the latter two developing nuclear weapons—a highly destabilizing prospect.

Mr. Trump has been cavalier about the use of nuclear weapons. He has a record of insults to servicemen, their families and the military, which he called a “disaster.” He has declared our senior military leaders “reduced to rubble” and “embarrassing our country” and has suggested that, if elected, he will purge them—an unprecedented and unconscionable threat. As of late, he appears to be rethinking some of these positions but he has yet to learn that when a president shoots off his mouth, there are no do-overs.

Mr. Trump is also willfully ignorant about the rest of the world, about our military and its capabilities, and about government itself. He disdains expertise and experience while touting his own—such as his claim that he knows more about ISIS than America’s generals. He has no clue about the difference between negotiating a business deal and negotiating with sovereign nations.

All of the presidents I served were strong personalities with strongly held views about the world. But each surrounded himself with independent-minded, knowledgeable and experienced advisers who would tell the president what he needed to hear, not what he wanted to hear. Sometimes presidents would take their advice, sometimes not. But they always listened.

The world we confront is too perilous and too complex to have as president a man who believes he, and he alone, has all the answers and has no need to listen to anyone. In domestic affairs, there are many checks on what a president can do; in national security there are few constraints. A thin-skinned, temperamental, shoot-from-the-hip and lip, uninformed commander-in-chief is too great a risk for America.

I understand the broad anger and frustration against political leaders in both parties. I have written about my disgust as secretary of defense as I watched politicians repeatedly place re-election above the nation’s best interests. Polls make clear that most Americans are dissatisfied with the two major party candidates for president. But as I used to say in the Pentagon, we are where we are—not where we might wish to be. We have to make a decision. Perhaps the debates, if the candidates focus on substance rather than personal attacks, will clarify the choice.

Mrs. Clinton has time before the election to address forthrightly her trustworthiness, to reassure people about her judgment, to demonstrate her willingness to stake out one or more positions on national security at odds with her party’s conventional wisdom, and to speak beyond generalities about how she would deal with China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, the Middle East—and international trade. Whether and how she addresses these issues will, I believe, affect how many people vote—including me.

At least on national security, I believe Mr. Trump is beyond repair. He is stubbornly uninformed about the world and how to lead our country and government, and temperamentally unsuited to lead our men and women in uniform. He is unqualified and unfit to be commander-in-chief.

Mr. Gates served eight presidents over 50 years, most recently as secretary of defense under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
Title: The Bushes vs. Trump
Post by: G M on September 20, 2016, 09:57:15 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaqGBF9nUb8

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaqGBF9nUb8[/youtube]

Trump=Al Czervik
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 20, 2016, 01:09:20 PM
The opinions of Robert Gates are certainly interesting and valuable.
One opinion I notice is remarkably absent is his assessment of Bama who is supposedly so thoughtful and deliberate?

Bama was at the helm for 8 yrs while the international situation has become more complex .  He hasn't helped from my armchair.

So what say Gates?

So WHO does he think would have been able to do anything about it?



Title: Re: Gates on the EDC and the Donald
Post by: DougMacG on September 20, 2016, 02:45:18 PM
ccp,  Your post reminds me that I wrote this, this morning, and it didn't post.  (I am getting filtered out of posting on the forum by McDonald's wifi!)  It looks like our views overlap considerably.
------------------------------------------------------
My comments on Gates opinions:

Gates hates Trump but this is no ringing endorsement of Hillary.

First of his criticisms of Trump is the wall: "He [Trump] has expressed support for building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico".  Yes he has.  The Secretary of Defense opposes border security?  He has a better plan?  If so, mum's the word.  Didn't even enforce the last border fence act passed by congress and signed by a previous President he served.  This is not his department?

Defeating TPP is a political, economic win for China?  Maybe true if TPP was a trade agreement.  What about all the clauses giving up American sovereignty.  We don't know Gates' values and vision in this regard, but they probably don't match mine.  He did happily agree to serve on under Pres Obama and has rarely, openly differed with him, even in his profit-seeking tell-all.

"Dealing effectively with China requires a president with strategic acumen and vision, nuance, deft diplomatic and political skill, and sound instincts on when to challenge, when to stay silent and when to compromise or partner."

Or to put it differently, more of the same, the status quo, the unwillingness or inability to confront a rival and potential enemy that has led to where we are now.  Are we satisfied with where we are now, China in expansionary mode, America in retreat?  Wasting our money on a readiness that everyone knows we are unwilling to use.

North Korea:  The establishment, diplomatic status quo, America walking softly has led us to where we are, NK ready to reach the US mainland with nuclear warheads shortly.  Under their non-provocation doctrine previously we wouldn't have missile defense either.  That came from a President willing to poke the eye of the adversary's position.  There is an upside risk that in dealing tougher with the Chinese, Trump could get China to shut down the NK threat so we don't have to.  There is also the risk he sets off nuclear war.  No one wants that - ever - but I would rather have it now than after our adversaries pass up our capabilities and defeat us.

Iran:  While Gates pretends to speak out candidly - to sell books - he tapdances around what a historic failure this Iran agreement is.  Trump doesn't.  He has been right about it all along, the cash payments, the wrongful removal of sanctions, the support of terrorism and the path to Iran becoming a nuclear power UNDER THIS AGREEMENT.  In this regard alone, Trump looks clairvoyant and Gates looks either ignorant or afraid to speak out his former boss.

Gates: "whatever value Mr. Obama’s nuclear agreement has brought, the deal has led to no decrease in Iran’s aggressive meddling in the Middle East nor any lessening of its hostility to the U.S. Iranian naval challenges to U.S. warship operations in the Persian Gulf have nearly doubled over the last year."

WHAT VALUE DID IT BRING? (the Iran agreement)  Gates in this regard (and TPP/sovereignty) is part of the establishment potentially getting kicked out.  When Bush/Cheney failed to take out Iran's nuclear sites militarily, Iran gained 8 years of nuclear weapons progress.  Under Obama's agreement, they gained financing and legitimacy.  Trump would at least stop sending them cash.

Gates refers to "the boiling caldron that is today’s Middle East."  Exactly right.  That is HIS legacy.  He should own it, tell us where the last 8 years went wrong, against his advice, or STFU and go quietly away as others take a turn at this.

One problem with evaluating these two candidates is that their words unlikely describe how they will govern, lead the military or handle conflicts.  Trump speaks sometimes as a dove, wants to sit out some conflicts in the Middle East.  Except when he says destroy ISIS, bring back water boarding etc.  He probably won't sit still while threats to the US are forming in the region.  Hillary served as a so-called hawk in a dove administration, now courts the anti-war Bernie vote.  Build bridges here instead - for them to blow up.  Trump isn't going to sit still while Russia or the Caliphate take over the Middle East, nor is Hillary going to put hawk or dove ideologies ahead of the immense opportunities to buy and sell favors around the world.

[Gates on Trump] "a man who believes he, and he alone, has all the answers and has no need to listen to anyone. In domestic affairs, there are many checks on what a president can do; in national security there are few constraints. A thin-skinned, temperamental, shoot-from-the-hip and lip, uninformed commander-in-chief is too great a risk for America."

'I alone' sounded awkward when I've heard Trump say something like that.  What he obviously meant is that in the job at the top, you are alone.  Some advisers say invade, others urge restraint, one person makes the final decision.  It's lonely at the top in my business of one, probably more so to be a wartime President.  Shoot from the hip is exactly what Hillary did in Libya.  She gained Obama's go-ahead without winning his support.  Never took it to Congress AS REQUIRED BY THE CONSTITUTION, never planned for the aftermath.  Now Pres. Obama considers it his biggest failure, her mission.  Yet they keep scratching each other's back.

As Gates states or implies, lots of past Presidents had political bravado and a lack of detailed knowledge of military details and the dangers around the world before getting elected.  Then we elevate one of them to Commander in Chief and each transforms into a President with enormous responsibilities in their own way, think Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter.  That Trump won't seek out military advice from the best experts he can call together, that he will make strategic, war starting or response decisions all alone without consulting with Generals or advisers is buffoonery.

Totally missing in the microscope of this former defense secretary is what kind of country are you defending.  One candidate seeks American strength and greatness.  The other seeks to neuter us down to rest-of-the-world mediocrity.  Military strength is tied to economic strength, among other things.  Even the Soviets and the PRC know that.  Yet Gates limits his analysis to assuming those factors are equal or irrelevant, maybe above his pay grade.  He is wrong to ignore that.

Every four years we take the risk of elevating someone to the level of Commander in Chief or leader of the free world as we used to call it before Obama.  If Gates thinks only he knows better than the eight Presidents he served and better than the two now running, then he can run.  For the rest of us, the choice is down to two people.  Choose wisely.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 20, 2016, 02:53:23 PM
"Each of these challenges may require the use of the American military, the most powerful the world has ever seen. The president commands some two million men and women in uniform, and every previous president would attest that the decision to put those lives at risk is the weightiest burden of office. Yet neither candidate has seriously addressed how he or she thinks about the military, the use of military force, the criteria they would apply before sending that force into battle, or broader questions of peace and war. Based on what each candidate has said and done, who can we trust with the lives of young Americans in uniform?"

Well Trump DARED to simply ask what about nucs?

And what did he get for this?

Mocked!!!  I am sure Gates was one of them doing the mocking.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Jewish vote, gap narrowing
Post by: DougMacG on September 21, 2016, 04:28:57 AM
Clinton down 6, Trump up 6, 12 point move.
http://jpupdates.com/2016/09/20/jewish-support-for-clinton-drops-in-ny/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 21, 2016, 05:52:54 AM
"Clinton down 6, Trump up 6, 12 point move."

Wow I am shocked  :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o :-o but happy to see this.   :-D  :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D

I am curious as to why this is happening ?? (if hopefully really true).  Maybe God and country IS STILL more important than the Democrat Party .


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 21, 2016, 11:12:00 AM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/its-still-clintons-race-to-lose-1474413142

It’s Still Clinton’s Race to Lose
Only 38% of likely voters think Donald Trump is ‘qualified’ for the presidency.
Title: Mexico's Vincente Fernandez sings for Hillary
Post by: DDF on September 21, 2016, 08:27:17 PM
I've told you guys that Mexicans are actively working against Trump.

here you have the most famous singer in the entire history of Mexico, who took the time to make a video expressly supporting Hillary.

If you think this hasn't been heard by 80% of the Latino community here, and there you're crazy.

People here will understand enough Spanish to get the just of it.

https://www.facebook.com/PuroZacatecasSax/videos/1314173215310012/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2016, 08:49:47 AM
I thought Mexico/Mexicans didn't believe in meddling in other people's internal affairs , , ,  :-P

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 22, 2016, 04:15:52 PM
Everyone expects Trump to blow his stack in the debates .  If he can get Shrillery to do this that would be very wise:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/clinton-why-arent-i-50-points-ahead-of-trump/2016/09/21/d9142b3e-8072-11e6-9578-558cc125c7ba_video.html

Doesn't this make one think that if this were a different time or a different day she would not be the type to take political enemies in a back room and put a bullet in their head?

She is inherently evil.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 22, 2016, 07:09:47 PM
 :lol: :lol: :lol:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 23, 2016, 07:01:18 AM
I thought Mexico/Mexicans didn't believe in meddling in other people's internal affairs , , ,  :-P



Almost. They don't believe in having people meddle in their affairs. I was at base one day, talking about starting a private military company here with some brothers of mine. One of them told me, "we can't, because we are a nation of peace," vis-à-vis, we can't have something where we would be involving ourselves in another country's affairs, but they'll sure do it this way.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 23, 2016, 09:22:04 AM
"Almost. They don't believe in having people meddle in their affairs."

 :-)
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 23, 2016, 09:42:22 AM
"Almost. They don't believe in having people meddle in their affairs."

 :-)

I'll be the first to admit, the hypocrisy stings. Americans flags I have seen while here (other than at the American embassy)? Zero. They'll through you out with out so much as a court date, for the offense.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 23, 2016, 06:29:49 PM
I am not sure why we keep having to see people in an audience at these debates.  They are distracting and serve no purpose.
As for Cuban I don't know exactly what he thinks Clinton is going to do for him.  He probably thinks he should be CTO at the WH:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/donald-trump-troll-mark-cuban-well-positioned-1st-173502454--abc-news-topstories.html
Title: Hillary's strategy
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 23, 2016, 07:53:08 PM
Interesting implications here on many levels:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/22/hillary-clintons-new-colder-cold-war-russia-putin-election/

I suspect she will be making a play on Monday night along this line-- to show Trump's ignorance, to continue to add to her "bromance" line of attack (with mention of his not meeting with President of Ukraine) to ask if he bombs the hell out of ISIS as promised, won't that help the Russian-Iranian axis, etc etc

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 24, 2016, 01:21:40 PM
second post

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/donald-trump-bill-clinton-gennifer-flowers-presidential-debate
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 25, 2016, 11:33:43 AM
I have been out, traveling in the Boundary Waters.  In the RCP polls with no toss ups, Hillary clinton losing momentum now has 272 electoral votes with 270 needed.  Latest poll in PA has her up by only 2.  Losing Pennsylvania would change everything.  Debate tomorrow?

Trump needs Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, must win.

Clinton must-win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia.

Both must win their must wins plus a little more from the true toss ups to get over the top.

5 Trump paths to victory:  http://www.weeklystandard.com/electoral-mapmaking/article/2004500
Title: 2016 Presidential Debate Strategy - 26 September
Post by: DDF on September 26, 2016, 10:14:06 AM
Critical Points for Donald Trump


1. Uniting the White Conservative and Latino votes. - While recognizing that Blacks are also Americans and just as important as any other demographic, the majority of Americans are either Caucasian or Latino, and while there are critical differences between their respective subcultures, the have much in common.


Trump would be wise to focus on the fact that the traditional values of the country are under attack, and while he shouldn't mention it (the following) specifically, Mexico just had a huge march against same sex marriage and many Latinos are very conservative. It could be reasoned that Trump will be attacked for taking this stance, but he is already. With the LGBT community already siding primarily with the Left, he is over-tasked with winning their votes. Aside from that, the LGBT's comprise roughyl 3-4% of the population; whereas, Latinos account for approximately 17% of the population, with the bulk being either in the southwest and Florida. Additionally, both are groups that will presumably have a very high voter turnout this election. If Trump focuses on family values, the importance of religion, the high percentage of Latino veterans (who are immensely patriotic, but who also lean left much of the time) and of not losing one's traditional background, he won't generate any additional heat that hasn't already been generated, and it will resonate with the Latino community, and been seen as a strength. It will also cast off much of the "racist Trump Brand," because he will be engaging the Latinos directly with this point and the following points concerning Latinos.


The fact of the matter is, many Latinos in the States do not want to help Mexicans come to the States, legally or otherwise. In fact, many Mexicans in Mexico (the bulk of Latino immigrants being Mexican), have stated that "the worst enemy of a Mexican, is another Mexican," which to them means, that people that are of Mexican decent in the States, don't want more Mexicans going to the United States to ruin the life that people of Mexican decent have found for themselves there, and it is overwhelmingly true. The problem with the 14th amendment allowing for the creation of anchor babies is something that the White conservatives want addressed desperately, but the Latinos do as well, because in the end, nobody wants to lose their job or money to someone else. Suggesting a fix for the decades standing problem would also allow for Trump to flaunt his prowess in political terms where every other politician has failed. This odd topic is a key in uniting the two groups. Trump can only win points by championing this cause. It will give the Whites the closure of the border they want by remedying the 14th amendment, but also protect the hard won lifestyles of the Latinos in the States, who also want the problem fixed, in order to secure their own future.

There is another important saying in Mexican culture used directly against Latinos in the States which is "no son de aquí, ni de allá," - "they are not from here, nor from there," which is a point that many Latinos in the States take to heart. If Trump invites them to the table by addressing them, they will feel included. They know they are not welcome in Mexico oftentimes, and also know, that to go back to Mexico (even if they are dual citizens), will only result in an insecure future and bleak financial opportunities. Trump needs to capitalize on this. Again, it can only help him, and unfortunately for the Left, they've already labeled Trump as a racist, which may well prove to be the genius of Trump, in that, the Left has nothing any more disparaging with which to label Trump. He can only win at this point.


The hypocrisy is so thick, that it cannot be denied, and so Trump is virtually immune to being accused of being racist in this regard, and in fact, this too, is something that will resonate with Latinos, if played as an acceptance of their own logical brilliance. The conservative Whites of course agree part and parcel. Establishing voter ID and enforcing immigration law, exactly as it is done in Mexico can only unite the two, betting heavily on the fact and anchoring with, no one wants to lose their job, security, or country.
[/list]

2. Winning the Black votes that can be won. - People wrongly conclude that there is such a thing as "the Black vote." Trump also needs to realize this. Just as there is a huge rift between conservatives and liberals, there are also rifts in the black community. The Black Lives Matter movement, while vocal, and even rampant in social media, fails some important points.



3. White Liberals and Millennials. - This is by far the most troublesome group to win over, due to the fact that they aren't yet old enough to really understand finances on their own, as many of them may still live at home, while attending universities, or be so driven by their flawed, failed and hypocritical philosophy, that winning votes from them will be almost impossible. They don't know enough to be bought, and the ones that do, have been indoctrinated for years, oftentimes, after being sucessful by the same capitalist and "racist" system they hate, which well may be their Achilles heel.


Clinton will undoubtedly attack Trump's "basket of deplorables," claiming them to be a group of racists, hellbent on "making America White again." Trump needs to counter that with the assertion that every American matters, and that claiming that one group matters more than another group is a tactic of division, because by definition, one is stating that another American doesn't matter... as much, and that focus should be thrust upon how to elevate the status of every American that wants to elevate their status, rather than color and division. Trump should also drive home the fact, that Clinton hasn't been campaigning for herself, and if she can't even do that, how can she run a country? She is almost never seen in public and cannot even attend her own fundraising events, even when she isn't "sick."

Clinton will also attack the fact that Trump hasn't released his tax returns. I am certain that this is something that Trump strategists have thought out more than many have at the moment, but stating that it isn't a legal requirement would come across as weak and disingenuous. He should deflect on this one, and point out any one of the numerous flaws with Clinton selling plutonium to Russia and their fortune they have access to in the Clinton Foundation, also pointing out, that any relevant information has been filed with the IRS in accordance to law, unlike the Clintons hiding funds in their foundation.

The debate tonight will be interesting.

[/list]
Title: The SCOTUS issue
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 26, 2016, 03:24:35 PM
https://imprimis.hillsdale.edu/next-supreme-court-justice/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=paid&utm_content=090816f&utm_campaign=scalia
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 26, 2016, 06:05:57 PM
For the record, they're broadcasting the debate live, here in Spanish, on national television.

Edit:

The debate just ended. I took a lot of notes. Mexican television is stating that Donald Trump wasn't prepared and that Clinton was. There were 102.7 thousand online viewers plus the television audience.

I think Trump killed it. The "mistake" remark by Clinton was a coffin nail, as was her initiating the Iran nuclear deal.

Verdict? Points?

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 26, 2016, 08:53:10 PM
I thought is was about even, though Holt was certainly tougher on Trump by far - not unexpected.  I thought Trump held his own.

He did wipe that shit eating grin off her face a few times.  The liberal grin, the sarcastic grin.........

I also though Trump missed a great opportunity when Clinton claimed that our foreign friends can count on her to keep her word.

He could have simply said "well a majority of Americans think your dishonest and with good reason, why should our allies trust you."

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 26, 2016, 08:59:33 PM
I thought is was about even, though Holt was certainly tougher on Trump by far - not unexpected.  I thought Trump held his own.

He did wipe that shit eating grin off her face a few times.  The liberal grin, the sarcastic grin.........

I also though Trump missed a great opportunity when Clinton claimed that our foreign friends can count on her to keep her word.

He could have simply said "well a majority of Americans think your dishonest and with good reason, why should our allies trust you."



AWESOME POINT. I actually accumulate these gems and send them to people that generate articles. My wife working in the news, I'm actually starting to understand how news and media work. This is a GREAT point.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 27, 2016, 06:22:25 AM
Though the chattering class is scoring is for Hillary, and certainly Trump missed many opportunities (and got dinged a few times e.g. birther) I think Trump did fine on the meta issues.  I suspect when the first post debate polls come out (Saturday) once again will be confounded that his polls went up , , , I hope and pray.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 27, 2016, 07:19:50 AM
"Though the chattering class is scoring is for Hillary, and certainly Trump missed many opportunities (and got dinged a few times e.g. birther) I think Trump did fine on the meta issues.  I suspect when the first post debate polls come out (Saturday) once again will be confounded that his polls went up , , , I hope and pray."

CNN and MSNBC people were all cheerful and happy and beaming from ear to ear last night after the debate so sure she knocked him out.  Or so they would like to set the story line and have the "impressionables" believe.

I think they are in for a shock when the find out otherwise.  Just my got.
The birther issue is not an issue for most .   The Left is drumming this up like anyone cares.



Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 27, 2016, 07:29:11 AM
http://thefederalist.com/2016/09/27/trump-clinton-debate-was-an-embarrassment-for-everyone/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 27, 2016, 08:31:50 AM
http://thefederalist.com/2016/09/27/trump-clinton-debate-was-an-embarrassment-for-everyone/

I'm voting for Johnson - This is why:

1. I loathe everything about Clinton; her hypocrisy, her lies, her failures, her coverups, the way she treats good people that have served all parties for decades (Billy Dale, Travelgate, destroying the life of a man that was just doing his job for 30+ years), and more than anything, the fact that she left Americans of all colors to die, alone, never returning to see their families again, and though I've never known what it is to serve the American flag, I know what it is to serve and watch your brothers die. I've seen it, and I'm not alone.

2. It would seem that Trump would be the obvious answer, but he failed too. He completely abandoned the coverup involved between Obama, Clinton, Lynch, Comey and who knows who else, in the debate last night. We sit around talking about BLM and every other thing under the sun, only to have a political outsider, have the chance to throttle people that trounce not just the Flag, but the laws that flag represent, in front of the American people, and Trump didn't even mention it. If that isn't classism and representation of the Elitist class, I don't know what is.

3. Gary Johnson - There are things that I don't like about him; his stance on immigration, the fact that he sticks his tongue out on national TV and didn't know where Aleppo is, but there are things I don't like even more than that, namely, a career politician who lies and holds herself to be above the law, and someone that has the chance to call Clinton and everyone else involved in it, in front of the nation, and failed to do so, when it's never been more necessary to do so. It is the single largest coverup known to the public, in the entire history of the United States. If you can support that, without even considering a person that has started his own business, created numerous jobs (just as Trump has), and actually had the wherewithal to climb Mount Everest as a human, maybe you should reconsider.

I would never be so arrogant as to tell you what to do with your vote, or that I know better than you, because we all have the right to vote and all have our own experiences, but as for me, I cannot support someone who claims to be against everything that is wrong with America, actually has the chance to rip the curtains off of it in front of the American public, and doesn't even broach the subject.

In closing, I'll add, I've guarded generals and heads of State, and I have to say, that the only people I've never trusted, are brothers I've had that couldn't be faithful to their own wives, and I'm not referring to someone that has made a mistake, but to someone who actively shows a pattern of distrust and lacking loyalty, because if your significant other, the one that should matter most to you, can't trust you, how can anyone else? Johnson - that's where this vote is going.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 27, 2016, 08:37:34 AM
 "It would seem that Trump would be the obvious answer, but he failed too. He completely abandoned the coverup involved between Obama, Clinton, Lynch, Comey and who knows who else, in the debate last night."

 I don't know why he didn't bring this up.   Perhaps he knows this will be made into just another "conspiracy" theory and mocked by the Left.
Perhaps he will in coming debates or on campaign trail.

I dunno.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 27, 2016, 09:03:27 AM
"It would seem that Trump would be the obvious answer, but he failed too. He completely abandoned the coverup involved between Obama, Clinton, Lynch, Comey and who knows who else, in the debate last night."

 I don't know why he didn't bring this up.   Perhaps he knows this will be made into just another "conspiracy" theory and mocked by the Left.
Perhaps he will in coming debates or on campaign trail.

I dunno.

If only it was a "conspiracy theory." We all know it's not. People don't plead the 5th over "conspiracy theories." People don't smash Blackberries with hammers over "conspiracy theories," and honest candidates sure as hell don't just give the guilty a pass.

I am certain there are people here that are smarter than I am. I'm sure of it. I do have to say though, there has been one thing that has never failed me, so long as I have exercised it correctly, and that is, doing my best to be a man of principle, and judging myself as harshly as possible. I would never dream of suggesting what others should do, but I know what I am going to do, and this is why. I'll admit, there is much that I don't like about Gary Johnson, but he by far, lacks any of the serious character flaws demonstrated by Clinton and Trump.

Funny, I'm going to law school here, and there are two primary types of felonies - felonies which are of "action," (which mean that one committed an act) and felonies that are of "omission," which means one failed to do that which is required. Trump not calling out the entire Obama, Lynch, Clinton, Comey deal, which is not even bringing to bear Holder and the weapons that he sent here, that we have encountered, into question. If that isn't omission, I don't know what is.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 27, 2016, 10:44:30 AM
In fairness to Trump, he isn't a seasoned debater, and I have to examine more of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that Johnson supports, before I make up my mind.

Trump would do well to pull the covers on Clinton, because I am certain that I am not the only one thinking this.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 27, 2016, 11:01:02 AM
Though the chattering class is scoring is for Hillary, and certainly Trump missed many opportunities (and got dinged a few times e.g. birther) I think Trump did fine on the meta issues.  I suspect when the first post debate polls come out (Saturday) once again will be confounded that his polls went up , , , I hope and pray.

Right.  Tom Brokaw said Trump didn't win any new voters and Bob Scheiffer said Hillary didn't win any new voters.  Millenials are right to be disillusioned.

The missed opportunities are what stand out to us.  He failed to defend capitalism, he missed key points on birther, that questioning it isn't racist and that Obama's publicist was calling him a Kenyan, besides that Hillary started it.

Some of us earlier mentioned that at this point in the campaign it would be nice if the nominee understood and could defend capitalism and free enterprise.

From my point of view Trump wasted his economic case on mostly hollow trade arguments.  Within that, he landed a truth that has to do with consumption-based versus income tax based nations.  (I will expand on that elsewhere.)  But those trade arguments poll at about 65% and Hillary couldn't argue back having herself taken Bernie's position.  They both looked bad but Trump did land some punches.  30 years and you haven't made it better.

On the omissions, stay tuned.  Of course key points of attack were missed, partly by the steering in the questions.  This one needs to be hammered home:

Hillary is running on her husbands good economic record while running against all of his policies that worked for him.  THE REAL GROWTH UNDER CLINTON CAME WHEN HE CHANGED COURSE.  See a previous post, WAGE GROWTH under Bill Clinton was EIGHT TIMES HIGHER after enacting supply side policies with Newt and the Republicans in the last years of his Presidency than they were in the first years when partisan Bill Clinton with a Democratic House and Senate raised taxes and pursued government healthcare.

Trump is running against both parties and all politicians.  This is not an ordinary political year.

He called her out for the results of the last TEN YEARS, not just the Obama Presidency.  Forgive me but this is an ad nauseum point of mine, that the Democrats took power in Washington 2 years before the Obama Presidency.  Hillary and Barack were the de facto majority leaders of Congress in Washington in the lead up and DURING THE CRASH.  The financial collapse wasn't caused by tax rate cuts.  Economic growth came out of that.  The collapse came from Democratic policies, namely CRAp, that yes Republican signed onto.  And it came as a consequence to the notice in Nov 2006 that voters gave investors that TAX RATE CUTS WERE ENDING.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on September 27, 2016, 01:19:01 PM
"The last thing we need to do is to go back to the policies that failed us in the first place."

   - Hillary Rodham Clinton in Debate 1, Sept. 2016


I agree.
Title: Very bizarre question
Post by: ccp on September 27, 2016, 02:53:53 PM
There is something very fishy about this question.  It is almost like if there is a question of cheating would Trump just move on and accept the results:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/09/27/nbc-news-ask-donald-trump-twice-starting-civil-war/
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 27, 2016, 03:09:18 PM
They want to forestall him from complaining about dirty tricks, rigging the vote, stuffing the ballot box, etc. 

This question may well prove to be a big warning flag of serious cheating to come.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on September 27, 2016, 03:31:17 PM
"This question may well prove to be a big warning flag of serious cheating to come."

This was exactly my thought.  Is the election rigged?  Why wouldn't it be?  Who is going to do anything about it?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Debate 1, HRC Fact Check: Egg on Face
Post by: DougMacG on September 27, 2016, 03:51:34 PM
Hillary wants her debate fact checked.  I'll take a shot at her assertions:
(more on this here: http://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=1467.msg98931#msg98931)

HRC:  We also, though, need to have a tax system that rewards work and not just financial transactions. And the kind of plan that Donald has put forth would be trickle-down economics all over again. In fact, it would be the most extreme version, the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country than we’ve ever had.  I call it trumped-up trickle-down, because that’s exactly what it would be. That is not how we grow the economy.

   - This always goes unchecked.  It isn't "trickle down" if all rate cuts apply to everyone.  It is an interconnected economy, not a trickled down one.

Rating:  Straw Argument, Deception, and Lie.


HRC: "He really believes that the more you help wealthy people, the better off we’ll be and that everything will work out from there."

Still not true.  Rating:  Straw Argument, Deception, Lie and Repeating a Lie.


HRC: "I believe is the more we can do for the middle class, the more we can invest in you, your education, your skills, your future, the better we will be off and the better we’ll grow."

   - Government 'investment' is called spending, leads to debt, $20 trillion.

Rating:  Deception, Lie.


HRC: "Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. He said, back in 2006, “Gee, I hope it does collapse, because then I can go in and buy some and make some money.” "

   - Housing was over-priced in 2006.  A real estate buyer benefits from lower prices.

Rating:  Punch not landed.


HRC:  "The last thing we need to do is to go back to the policies that failed us in the first place."

   - She and her group have been in power from before the crash all the way through history's slowest 'recovery'.

Rating:  Egg on Face.


HRC: "Independent experts have looked at what I’ve proposed and looked at what Donald’s proposed, and basically they’ve said this, that if his tax plan, which would blow up the debt by over $5 trillion and would in some instances disadvantage middle-class families compared to the wealthy, were to go into effect, we would lose 3.5 million jobs and maybe have another recession.  They’ve looked at my plans and they’ve said, OK, if we can do this, and I intend to get it done, we will have 10 million more new jobs, because we will be making investments where we can grow the economy. Take clean energy. Some country is going to be the clean- energy superpower of the 21st century."

   - There isn't a serious economic study that uses static analysis.  Government money into investments like Solydra that otherwise don't pay for themselves add no net new jobs.

Rating:  Denial of Science, Lie, Deception.
  

HRC:  "I would not add a penny to the debt."

Pay no attention to the previous record of same policies.

Rating:  Congenital Lie.  There was a column by that name.


HRC:  "What I have proposed would be paid for by raising taxes on the wealthy, because they have made all the gains in the economy. And I think it’s time that the wealthy and corporations paid their fair share to support this country."

   - That's exactly the argument made before Obama was elected.  These policies made it worse.

Rating:  Pathological Lie.


HRC:  "$4 billion tax benefit for your family."

   - You just said in the same debate that he pays NO federal income tax.

Rating:  Lie.


HRC: "Too many young African-American and Latino men ended up in jail for nonviolent offenses. And it’s just a fact that if you’re a young African-American man and you do the same thing as a young white man, you are more likely to be arrested, charged, convicted, and incarcerated.  So we’ve got to address the systemic racism in our criminal justice system. We cannot just say law and order. We have to say — we have to come forward with a plan that is going to divert people from the criminal justice system, deal with mandatory minimum sentences, which have put too many people away for too long for doing too little."

   - Mandatory sentencing was a feature of the Bill Clinton administration, as was the Defense of Marriage Act and repeal of Glass Steagal.

Rating:  Deflection, Deception, Lie.


HRC:  "He has really started his political activity based on this racist lie that our first black president was not an American citizen."

   - What is racial about birth?  And she started that political lie.

Rating:  Lying about your own Lie.


HRC:  "There was absolutely no evidence for it, but he persisted."

  - The evidence was that he was refusing to release his birth certificate for a job that has requirements regarding birth, also that his own publicist was promoting him as a Kenyan.  
Rating:  No one Left to Lie to.  There was a book by that name.  Yes, about her.


HRC:  "I voted for every sanction against Iran when I was in the Senate, but it wasn’t enough. So I spent a year-and-a-half putting together a coalition that included Russia and China to impose the toughest sanctions on Iran.   And we did drive them to the negotiating table. And my successor, John Kerry, and President Obama got a deal that put a lid on Iran’s nuclear program without firing a single shot. That’s diplomacy. That’s coalition-building. That’s working with other nations."

   - She is taking credit for constructing the sanctions regime that they abandoned, and is supporting the abandonment.  There is a "lid" on Iran’s nuclear program"

Rating:  She is a consistently contrary indicator between right and wrong on policy.

HRC:  "Let’s have paid family leave, earned sick days. Let’s be sure we have affordable child care and debt-free college.  How are we going to do it? We’re going to do it by having the wealthy pay their fair share and close the corporate loopholes."

   - You already ran out of other peoples' money, $20 trillion in the red and counting.

Rating of anyone who believes that:  Gullible.
Title: TIME Post Debate Poll
Post by: DDF on September 27, 2016, 10:04:36 PM
Has Trump winning 55% to 45%.

http://time.com/4506217/presidential-debate-clinton-trump-survey/?xid=time_socialflow_facebook

"This question may well prove to be a big warning flag of serious cheating to come."

This was exactly my thought.  Is the election rigged?  Why wouldn't it be?  Who is going to do anything about it?
They want to forestall him from complaining about dirty tricks, rigging the vote, stuffing the ballot box, etc.  

This question may well prove to be a big warning flag of serious cheating to come.

Exactly my concern and an odd question. Trump was smart to just answer "yes," because in doing so, he is supporting law and order. Anything else would have left him open.

Been doing homework all day. Going to edit this with my notes in a few minutes.

Edit... not going to edit it. Any analysis of this at this moment is imprudent based on the fact that no one is going to change their minds. I was thinking Johnson this morning, then got to 5600 pages of TPP junk that I have to skim vs Trump's "stop and frisk" which I also don't support. Have to see what happens at the next debate.

There are just too many variables at the moment. Election fraud is indeed a danger and why the leftist media is attempting to claim that HRC is close in the polls. I doubt she is. Electronic voting leaves no hard proof, which is a point many have mentioned before the debate. When asked of supporting Clinton, I can only laugh.

With a potential of nearly two decades of liberal rule, would you support it, while they destroy every freedom you hold dear, especially if there is a reasonable doubt that they were elected fraudulently? GC just posted an article with the gun laws that have passed... Anyone that is 40 years of age or older, remembers the difference between their childhood and the litany of laws that exist now.

Support? Support what?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 27, 2016, 10:11:42 PM
On line polls are of limited value.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 27, 2016, 10:25:10 PM
On line polls are of limited value.

I agree. I was screen capturing data off of both candidates' pages last night, immediately after the debate had ended, from the top comments on their respective pages, with both publishing posts as soon as the debate had ended.

In 21 minutes, the top comment from Trump's page garnered 5950 likes in 21 minutes (283.333- endorsements of support per minute), with 394 replies.

In 18 minutes, the top comment from Clinton's page had generated 2087 likes (115.9444- endorsements of support per minute) OR 40% of the support Trump was enjoying based on the ratio, per minute. Clinton had 214 replies.

From the replies, we can also garner interest generated by either candidate. I know that is subject to several factors that may sway data (both are from English speaking pages, time zones, amount of households that have internet, and a lack of input from either Stein's or Johnson's pages). Even still, the reverse is also true... those that were awake, on the internet, and had just watched the debate, those are the results of what they had to say.

Interesting to note, is the correlation between Time's result of 55% pro Trump, and the casual data gathered by what I observed last night. More drastic are Youtube ratios which I have generally calculated at roughly 12 in 5 supporting Clinton. I should look into why that is.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Michael Barone, 2nd thoughts on debate 1
Post by: DougMacG on September 28, 2016, 06:48:49 AM
From our point of view Trump missed so many opportunities.  OTOH maybe he did land some lasting punches with his targeted voters.  

[One other point is that Romney destroyed Obama in the first debate of 2012 and lost the election decisively.]

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/did-donald-trump-deconstruct-hillary-clinton-with-marginal-voters/article/2603043

Did Donald Trump deconstruct Hillary Clinton with marginal voters?

By MICHAEL BARONE (@MICHAELBARONE) • 9/27/16 7:39 PM

One way to look at Monday's night presidential debate: Both candidates were speaking, time and again, to marginal voters. Specifically, to young Americans, and for a considerable time to young black Americans in particular, people who may or may not choose to vote, may choose to vote for a third- or fourth-party candidate or may (Democrats hope) turn out to vote in large numbers for Hillary Clinton. Clinton's strategy of replicating the 2012 Obama 51 percent majority requires high turnout among groups that over history have had a low propensity to vote — blacks, Hispanics, young people. Trump's strategy, given his unpopularity with young voters, is to deter them from voting for Clinton, especially considering that the black and Hispanic percentages among young people eligible to vote is higher than those percentages among older people.

"She's been doing this for 30 years," Trump said near the beginning of the debate, while talking about trade. The number's not quite accurate: Clinton has been a national figure for only — only! — 25 years, since Bill Clinton began running for president in 1991, but she was also, as speakers at the Democratic National Convention mentioned over and over, a public policymaker starting at least when Bill Clinton was first elected governor in 1978, 38 years ago. "And Hillary, I'd just ask you this," Trump said some minutes later. "You've been doing this for 30 years." There's no clear antecedent for "this" — Trump was riffing about energy, debt, trade — but the point was made again. He even lapsed into absurdity — "You've been fighting ISIS your entire adult life" — which is impossible because the Islamic State didn't exist for most of that time. Much later in the debate, he chimed in on ISIS. "So she talks about taking them out. She's been doing it a long time." And near the end of the debate, he chimed in, "Hillary's has experience, it's bad experience."

Trump also went after her on flip-flopping, which is to say, sincerity. He brazenly predicted that she would push the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement she's currently and then recalled, accurately, "You called it the gold standard of trade deals." Young people, it seems safe to say, value sincerity and dislike candidates who switch positions for political reasons.

Trump missed a chance to skewer Clinton for her secret email server in response to a question on cybersecurity, but earlier, when moderator Lester Holt (otherwise mum on the emails) asked her to respond to Trump's mention of them, he said, "That was more than a mistake. That was done purposely. OK?" At which point he repeated the previous two sentences. "When you have your staff taking the Fifth Amendment, taking the Fifth so they're not prosecuted, when you have the man that set up the illegal server taking the Fifth, I think it's disgraceful."

So on three critical characteristics Trump tried to get across the message that Clinton is antique, expedient and dishonest — qualities that young people presumably abhor. He underlined the concerns that have young people in some target state polls casting more than 20 percent of their votes for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein or no candidate rather than the Democratic nominee.

How did Clinton try to appeal to young voters? Near the beginning of the debate, as part of a laundry list of policies supported by many Democrats, she called for "paid family leave, sick days" and "affordable child care and debt-free college." She echoed the call for "debt-free college" later but did not describe her plan, adapted from Bernie Sanders' proposal, in any detail. Later, in listing her "plans," she said, "We also have to look at how we help families balance the responsibilities at home and the responsibilities at business." Not all these concerns are shared by many young people, especially those who are marginal voters. Not all want to go to college. The percentage of Millennials who are married is lower than it was of previous generations and most unmarrieds are not in the market for child care. By no means do all have jobs. It's not clear that the policies will help them.

She also attacked Trump for positions and statements presumably unattractive to young people. She charged that "Donald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpretrated by the Chinese" — a slight alteration of a Trump tweet. And at the end of the debate Lester Holt asked a question that gave her a chance to reprise some of the repulsive things Trump has said about women.

"We move into our next segment talking about America's direction," said Lester Holt. "Let's start by talking about race." I don't recall "race" being a subject in any presidential debate in the last four elections (please correct me if I'm wrong), which tells you something about the state of things today.

In response, Clinton echoed the complaints of the Black Lives Matter group: "race still determines too much," there is "systemic racism in our criminal justice system" and "implicit bias is a problem for everyone, not just police." But she said, "It's really unfortunate that he [Trump] paints such a dire negative picture of black communities in our country." She joined Lester Holt in stating, inaccurately, that stop and frisk has been declared unconstitutional (for once, Trump had his facts straight on this and relayed them clearly). But she also said that police deserve respect and "we do always have to make sure we keep people safe." But the clear thrust of her remarks was in line with that of many protesters and of most black elected Democrats, and she called for federal "retraining" of police. Presumably she did so in the hope of rallying black voters, particularly young blacks, to the polls.

In contrast, Trump talked bluntly about the need for "law and order" and made the point, less clearly than he had at the Republican National Convention, that "the people that are most affected by what's happening" — increasing crime and violent riots — "are African-American and Hispanic people. And it's very unfair to them what our politicians are allowing to happen." He didn't cite the FBI figures released Monday showing murders nationally up 11 percent in 2015 — the biggest annual rise in decades. But he did make specific reference to recent events in Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, New York and Dallas which show some acquaintance with what's going on.

My own sense is that Trump got the better of this exchange. Clinton's stance may gin up black turnout, but it's not likely to rise to the levels of 2008 and 2012 when the first black president was running. And if the Democratic percentage among blacks should fall from the 95 and 93 percent of those years to the 84 and 83 percent Bill Clinton got in the 1990s, that would mean 1 point off Hillary Clinton's percentage nationally and more in target states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. And I'm not sure it helps Hillary Clinton to accuse the 70-plus percent of voters who are white that they have a problem with "implicit bias."       (more at link)
Title: NRO
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 28, 2016, 07:55:51 AM
It’s Like No One Remembers Who John Warner Is
Most of the Washington media is acting like it’s an enormous surprise that former senator John Warner of Virginia is endorsing Hillary Clinton.
People, people . . . Sometimes I feel like the only man with memory in land of amnesiacs. It was just two years ago that Warner was endorsing the Democrat in the Senate race.
Retired Republican Sen. John Warner endorsed his Democratic successor and onetime rival Mark Warner on Monday in his race against Ed Gillespie.
The 86-year-old told POLITICO that the state benefits from the seniority in the Senate that the 59-year-old Warner (the two are not related) is accumulating. The former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee also praised the younger Warner – with whom he has developed a friendship since the two squared off in a race nearly two decades ago – for effectively advocating on behalf of the state’s large military presence.
John Warner is the kind of Republican who supported Roe v. Wade and embryonic stem cell research, voted for the Brady Bill, sought to extend the Assault Weapons Ban, voted to reject the nomination of Robert Bork, voted against Bill Clinton’s impeachment, broke with the rest of the party on the Terry Schiavo case, was part of the Gang of 14 on the “nuclear option,” co-sponsored a resolution opposing the 2007 surge of additional U.S. troops in Iraq, and cosponsored cap-and-trade legislation.
John Warner is exactly the kind of Republican you would expect to see endorse Hillary Clinton.
Who Will Win More Votes Where It Counts, Trump or GOP Senate Candidates?
The piece of data that will most illuminate 2016 is Donald Trump’s vote total in key states compared to the vote totals of the Republican Senate candidates in those states.
The easy, lazy narrative is that a tired, unappealing Republican establishment was sputtering, and then Trump came along, energizing working-class white voters, and he represents a better, more broadly-appealing agenda for the party and represents the GOP future.
The current RealClearPolitics averages in each state tell a completely different story.
Right now, Trump is running a little ahead of GOP Senate candidates in a couple of states . . .
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Colorado: 41 percent.
Darryl Glenn’s current level in the RCP average in Colorado: 40.4 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Indiana: 45 percent.
Todd Young’s current level in the RCP average in Indiana: 40.5 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Missouri: 46.7 percent.
Roy Blunt’s current level in the RCP average in Missouri: 44.6 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in North Carolina: 42.3 percent.
Richard Burr’s current level in the RCP average in North Carolina: 42.2 percent.
Trump is running a little behind GOP Senate candidates in a bunch of states . . .
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Florida: 43.3 percent.
Marco Rubio’s current level in the RCP average in Florida: 46.4 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Georgia: 45.4 percent.
Johnny Isakson’s current level in the RCP average in Georgia: 49 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Illinois: 34.5 percent.
Mark Kirk’s current level in the RCP average in Illinois: 37.5 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Nevada: 42.8 percent.
Joe Heck’s current level in the RCP average in Nevada: 45 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Pennsylvania: 41.8 percent.
Pat Toomey’s current level in the RCP average in Pennsylvania: 42.2 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Wisconsin: 38 percent.
Ron Johnson’s current level in the RCP average in Wisconsin: 41.3 percent.
And Trump is running way behind GOP Senate candidates in another couple of states.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Arizona: 40.4 percent.
John McCain’s current level in the RCP average in Arizona: 49.7 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Iowa: 42.8 percent.
Chuck Grassley’s current level in the RCP average in Iowa: 52 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in New Hampshire: 37.3 percent.
Kelly Ayotte’s current level in the RCP average in New Hampshire: 47.3 percent.
Trump’s current level in the RCP average in Ohio: 42.7 percent.
Rob Portman’s current level in the RCP average in Ohio: 49.3 percent.
All appropriate caveats apply: Polls can be wrong, a bad sample can throw off the RCP average, et cetera. After the election, when all the votes are counted, we’ll have real data. Some will argue that this is an imperfect measuring stick, because Trump is competing against Clinton as well as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, and most third-party candidates in Senate races are minimally consequential. Of course, this is part of the point. Trump alienates and repels a portion of the electorate that is usually more open to voting for a Republican nominee.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on September 28, 2016, 08:11:42 AM


I think you're right. I'm trying to do homework and also read the Trans-Pacific Partnership to pick it apart, and maybe send some things to Trump's campaign that he can use.

At 5,544 pages (it's hard to tell because the actual government link with the text is in several links due to its size), it weighs more than 100 lbs. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/05/tpp-trade-deal-hits-5544-pages-longer-obamacare-plus-rubios-gang-eight-cheap-labor-amnesty-bill/

The full text is here: https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/tpp-full-text

Immediately, off of the preamble link, there are already glaring problems -


Liberalise - make liberal or more liberal, of laws and rules. To cause to change; make different; cause a transformation; relax controls.


Basically ceding more power to - "an intergovernmental organization which regulates international trade."


A good question would be, what healthcare systems have to do with international trade, but they've certainly justified it somewhere in their mountain of documents. I am one of few that actually took the time to read Obamacare in its entirety. Pelosi's infamous "you have to pass it so you can see what's in it," was her way of saying, that she hadn't read it herself, and at more than twice the size of Obamacare, the amount of people that get paid to read this, won't.


So the State, wants to regulate the rules by which the State will play by? Clinton, Russia being allowed to buy American plutonium, and cash shoveled into the Clinton Foundation come to mind.


[/list]

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Final-Text-Preamble.pdf

I'll read more of this and see what comes to surface. If anything, someone should pass a law, that makes passing legislation that takes longer than three days to speed read, illegal. When I do read it, I'll post it in the appropriate thread. Just in the preamble, there is even more to pick apart, depending on how much interest and power you think the United States should retain, a fundamental difference in philosophies that cannot be ignored, but that is easy to sell the American public.
Title: Re: NRO
Post by: DDF on September 28, 2016, 08:22:32 AM
All appropriate caveats apply: Polls can be wrong, a bad sample can throw off the RCP average, et cetera. After the election, when all the votes are counted, we’ll have real data. Some will argue that this is an imperfect measuring stick, because Trump is competing against Clinton as well as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, and most third-party candidates in Senate races are minimally consequential. Of course, this is part of the point. Trump alienates and repels a portion of the electorate that is usually more open to voting for a Republican nominee.


That is critical.

I think the appropriate thing to do is find and expose Johnson's negative points. He (Johnson) should be in the debates, but not just for Johnson's sake, but for the sake of finding out the negative portions that don't come to light, such as his support of TPP. The public has been focused so much, on attacking and endorsing Clinton or Trump, that even though the likelihood of a Libertarian victory is diminished with the inherent power of the DNC and GOP, the fact that Johnson (Stein to a much lesser extent), will pull needed votes from either candidate, MUST BE addressed. Johnson should receive much more attention than he is currently receiving, and not all of it positive.
Title: Lesbian for Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 28, 2016, 08:36:52 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0Tp2UUQf2k
Title: WSJ: Lester Holt was quite wrong on Stop & Frisk ruling
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 28, 2016, 09:28:35 AM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fact-checking-lester-holt-1475016937

Fact-Checking Lester Holt
Here’s the legal back story on that stop-and-frisk ruling.
Sept. 27, 2016 6:55 p.m. ET

We told you Tuesday that Donald Trump was right when he pushed back on debate moderator Lester Holt over “stop and frisk” policing. But the story deserves a more complete explanation, not least because the media are distorting the record.

Mr. Trump invoked stop and frisk as a way to “take the gun away from criminals” in high-crime areas and protect the innocent. That provoked Mr. Holt, who said that “stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional in New York.” Mr. Trump then noted that the ruling in the case came from a “very against police judge” who later had the case taken away from her. Mrs. Clinton then echoed Mr. Holt.

Here’s what really happened. The federal judge in the stop-and-frisk case was Shira Scheindlin, a notorious police critic whose behavior got her taken off the case by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. The appellate court put it this way:

“Upon review of the record in these cases, we conclude that the District Judge ran afoul of the Code of Conduct for United States Judges . . . and that the appearance of impartiality surrounding this litigation was compromised by the District Judge’s improper application of the Court’s ‘related case rule’ . . . and by a series of media interviews and public statements purporting to respond publicly to criticism of the District Court.”

The court then remanded the case to another judge who would not present an appearance of bias against the police. In a follow-up opinion, the appellate judges cited a New Yorker interview with Judge Scheindlin that included a quote from a former law clerk saying “what you have to remember about the judge is that she thinks cops lie.”

This is an extraordinary rebuke by a higher court and raises doubts that the merits of her ruling would have held up on appeal. As Rudolph Giuliani makes clear nearby, the judge’s ruling of unconstitutionality applied only to stop and frisk as it was practiced in New York at the time. Such police search tactics have long been upheld by higher courts.

In the end, the clock ran out on Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and new Mayor Bill de Blasiochose not to appeal. We rate Mr. Trump’s claim true and unfairly second-guessed by a moderator who didn’t give the viewing public all the facts.
Title: Re: WSJ: Lester Holt was quite wrong on Stop & Frisk ruling
Post by: DougMacG on September 28, 2016, 10:25:28 AM
Is this a national issue relative to this election, why was it brought up in this debate with time for big issues so limited?  I presume the answer to that was to isolate Trump from blacks, stop and frisk is hugely unpopular with blacks.  Also to distract attention away from current failures.

This is like abortion question, questioners pick apart the most extreme conservative position on rare cases and ignore the 98% where babies are getting slaughtered for convenience reasons.  In this case, the black and Hispanic neighborhoods are becoming war zones.  Bothering innocent people isn't a big part of the fix.

The policy as I understand it is stop, question and frisk, not stop and frisk.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 30, 2016, 06:22:02 PM
ow much money can the Obama Administration seize from banks before triggering a global financial panic? U.S. Department of Justice lawyers decided to find out by running a two-week experiment at Germany’s Deutsche Bank. The experiment appears to have ended on Friday, but not before Washington had ignited a run on one of the world’s largest financial institutions.

The government threat to Deutsche Bank’s safety and soundness began on Sept. 15. That’s when the Journal reported that Justice was demanding an eye-watering $14 billion to resolve an investigation of the bank’s sale of mortgage-backed securities prior to the 2008 financial panic.

Deutsche Bank then had to acknowledge the size of this government stick-up as its stock price proceeded to drop more than 20% in a fortnight. The lack of exuberance among investors was entirely rational. Washington’s proposed withdrawal represented most of the bank’s market capitalization.

Why announce this giant robbery now? Well, on Friday morning the Financial Times quoted two anonymous sources as saying Justice is seeking an “omnibus settlement” from Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Credit Suisse “to achieve maximum public impact by collecting an eye-catching sum in penalties” merely “weeks before the U.S. presidential election.”

The FT is often wrong, but we assume it didn’t make this up. And you don’t have to be a cynic to believe that this Administration would stage a bank raid that it could brag about to rev up voter enthusiasm among Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Democrats.

The problem is that the feds were creating the very systemic financial risk—aka “contagion”—that they claim to want to prevent. The public raid created so many doubts that major hedge funds began to flee Deutsche Bank amid uncertainty about its financial stability. The bank’s travails also called into question the strength of other European lenders, whose stock prices also fell.

Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan had to write a letter assuring employees that despite “speculation in the media that a few of our hedge fund clients have reduced some activities with us,” the bank still had more than 20 million clients and strong fundamentals.

A crisis for the bank was averted when Agence France Press reported Friday that the U.S. government suddenly appeared willing to accept only $5.4 billion from Deutsche Bank, rather than the $14 billion it had been demanding. Not so coincidentally, the new settlement amount is roughly equal to the litigation reserves recently reported by the bank. The news appeared to quell the run, and Deutsche Bank shares rallied strongly.

To summarize this fiasco: The feds leak a giant settlement number of $14 billion against an already shaky European bank to make the Democrats look tough on banks only weeks before an election. But they misjudge the market reaction, and then quickly settle for less than half that amount when they realize they might end up toppling a giant bank and kicking off another global financial panic.

We’d sure like to see the phone and email communications between Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Attorney General Loretta Lynch this week. Maybe Mr. Lew’s Financial Stability Oversight Council should investigate this case of government-induced systemic risk. He could bring in House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling as investigating counsel.

Notably missing here is any thought for proper justice in the creation of either settlement number. It all seems to have been an arbitrary political game. Justice lawyers have never even publicly stated what exactly Deutsche Bank is supposed to have done wrong. Does it even matter in Barack Obama’s Washington? 

WSJ
Title: Larry Kudlow
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 30, 2016, 06:42:42 PM
------
Let me pull out my list of Hillary tax hikes: a $350 billion income-tax increase in the form of a 28 percent cap on itemized deductions (without lowering personal tax rates); a more than $400 billion “fairness” tax hike in the form of a 4 percent surcharge on high-end earners; and the “Buffet rule,” which would establish a 30 percent minimum tax on earners with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million.
 
Clinton also proposes increase the estate tax rate to a range of 45 to 65 percent and reduce the exemption to $3.5 million.

Remember, estate taxes are already hit once by the income tax and again by the capital-gains tax. Here Hillary would end the stepped-up capital gains tax basis and instead value the gain all the way back to the initial transaction.
 
One of my favorite economists, Scott Grannis, calls this legalized theft.
 
Hillary also would raise the capital-gains tax to over 40 percent, unless gains are held for more than six years; cap various business deductions (without lowering the corporate rate); and install some sort of “exit tax” for corporate earnings overseas (which are overseas to avoid the high corporate rates she will not reduce).
 
Then there’s her proposed tax on stock trading, her attraction to a payroll tax hike, her endorsement of a steep soda tax and 25 percent national gun tax, and her openness to a carbon tax.

Now contrast this with Donald Trump’s plan to reduce tax rates for individuals and large and small businesses (while abolishing the death tax).
 
His new 15 percent corporate-tax-rate plan would unleash overseas-profits repatriation and a huge surge in corporate investment. By itself, the business tax reform could grow the economy by 4 percent.

He has a prosperity plan. She has a recession plan.

———

Slashing the corporate tax rate I am certain would result in a new wave of corporate investment, which has been noticeably lacking in the current weak expansion. My brother, who used to be Treasurer at Qualcomm, says that he is positive Qualcomm (and many other companies) would react very positively to such a move. It’s hard to underestimate how powerful the Trump changes would be, in my humble opinion.

Hillary, however, would do everything wrong. Maybe the Republican Congress might play a few more years of deadlock, but then again if Hillary wins the Dems might regain control of the Senate. Who knows the mischief the two establishment parties might wreak. I think voting for Trump is a very sensible gamble that things might improve somewhat or a lot, whereas if Hillary wins it’s only a question of how badly things might deteriorate.

I’m not excusing Trump’s painful ignorance on foreign trade matters, but I don’t think he would be able to do a lot of damage there. I think his bluster is mostly a negotiating tactic. I also note that Steve Moore and David Malpass, both good friends of mine for many years, are among Trump’s advisors, and they are solid supply-siders, so at the very least they might be able to tame Trump’s baser instincts.
Title: Alicia Machado driving get away car from attempted murder
Post by: Crafty_Dog on September 30, 2016, 10:31:45 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we8OnvlWSHg
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 01, 2016, 07:12:05 AM
Although now Clinton is doing the same nonsense with the name calling etc:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tweets-alicia-machado-204233809.html

He could beat her so easily .  If only he would listen to people who could give him the story lines we all know here that most in America are dying to hear , if only someone would say it.
Title: WSJ channels Donald Trump
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 03, 2016, 07:07:06 PM
 By Bret Stephens
Oct. 3, 2016 7:28 p.m. ET
107 COMMENTS

What follows is a draft of a speech Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver Tuesday, Oct. 4 in Prescott Valley, Ariz. We haven’t confirmed its authenticity because, like the rest of the corrupt media, we’re totally dishonest.

Thank you, everybody, thank you. It’s good to be back in Arizona. And you know we’re going to win, right? The polls say we’re going to win in Arizona, and we will.

The polls also say we’d lose the general election if it were held today. But they’re wrong. So wrong. You know how pollsters work? They guess who will show up to vote on election day, and then they poll these “likely voters.”

But let me tell you something. The pollsters have no clue. None. They don’t have a clue who the electorate is, and they don’t have a clue of what’s going on in America. Believe me, folks, on election day they’re going to find out.

The other day, in Colombia—I’m talking about the country in South America—they held a vote. A referendum. President Santos staked his reputation on a, quote-unquote, peace deal with the terrorists of the FARC.

Now the FARC, they’re the worst people in the world. They’ve killed tens of thousands of people. They make their money through drug trafficking and kidnapping. They’ve been terrorizing Colombians for 50 years.

Along comes Santos, and he makes this terrible deal that says to the FARC: We’re not going to send you to jail. We’re going to sentence your leaders to community service. We’re even going to guarantee you seats in the Congress.

And all the polls said the deal was going to win in a landslide. Obama and Kerry lined up behind it. Santos told Colombians they had no choice, that it was the only road to peace.

Guess what? The polls were wrong. The Colombians knew a bad deal when they saw one. They weren’t going to let killers get away with their crimes. The only deal they want with the FARC is the same deal Reagan got from Russia: We win, they lose.

Folks, it was the same story with the Brexit vote in June. All the polls said the Brits wouldn’t vote to leave the European Union. They did. All the experts said the sky would fall if the Brits voted to go. It didn’t. These geniuses said that Britain was too small to be the master of its own destiny. The British people believe otherwise, and I’m with them!

What happened in Britain, in Colombia, it’s going to happen here. Because, like them, we’re sick of it.

We’re sick of hearing ObamaCare is working when even the New York Times admits it’s a total disaster. We’re sick of hearing how great the economy is when it’s floating on a big wave of cheap credit that benefits Wall Street at the expense of savers. We’re sick of hearing how great the Iran deal is, then watching our sailors being humiliated while we secretly fork over pallets of cash.

You know what we’re also sick of? Liberal hypocrites.

I’m not supposed to say the name I’m about to say. Well, two words: Alicia. Machado.

Who is this Alicia Machado, other than a political prop for Hillary? She was a beauty queen for a business I helped run called “ Miss Universe.” The business of beauty queens is to be beautiful, just like it’s the business of athletes to be fit. Duh! And when she gained some weight, I insisted she lose it. Did I call her “ Miss Piggy”? Boo hoo. Get over it.

For this I’m being treated very badly. Let me ask you something: Other than Lena Dunham, when was the last time Anna Wintour ran a fat person on the cover of Vogue? And when was the last time Hillary said no to one of Ms. Wintour’s big fundraisers because of Vogue’s “lookism”?

So spare me the sensitivity lectures. Spare me the business lectures, too. Those tax returns someone stole and the New York Times published? The ones that showed I once lost nearly a billion dollars and used every legal trick in the book to stage a comeback?

All of you here understand this is how business is done in America. Some years you make money. Some years you lose. You take advantage of every tax break you can because the government is trying to screw you every other way.

That’s the real world. It’s only in the unreal world that Hillary lives in that you can make a fortune by being a failed secretary of state and then cash in on obscene speaking fees, or arrange for Bill to get an $18 million salary to be “honorary chancellor” at a for-profit college while the Obama administration destroys every other for-profit. That’s called corruption, no matter whether it’s legal or not.

Folks, there’s a giant wave coming. A tsunami of Americans who won’t stand for being told we don’t know what’s good for us. Who refuse to be lectured by political grifters about how to make an honest buck. Who don’t need our morals improved by Hillary Macbeth and Billy Caligula. And who refuse to accept that we have to make lousy deals, or make do with less, or that America can’t ever be great again.

To all the liberals and Never Trumpers who don’t get why Hillary isn’t ahead by 50 points—I just explained it. To all of you, get ready for Nov. 8. It’s going to be a beautiful thing. Believe me.

Write bstephens@wsj.com
Title: WSJ on the NY AG
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 04, 2016, 05:40:51 AM
We wrote Monday that many liberals believe that defeating Donald Trump justifies anything, and right on time comes the egregious Eric Schneiderman. The New York Attorney General delivered his own personal October surprise for Hillary Clinton by announcing a supposed scandal over Mr. Trump’s charitable foundation.

Mr. Schneiderman’s office, in a letter sent Friday and released Monday, ordered the Donald J. Trump Foundation to cease raising money in New York. According to the letter, the Trump outfit is not correctly registered in the state to solicit funds.

The AG gave the foundation 15 days to turn over reams of paper, including audited financial statements and annual financial reports going back many years. Mr. Schneiderman warned in his letter that failure to comply will be deemed a “fraud upon the people of the state of New York.”

The announcement is Mr. Schneiderman’s latest misuse of his prosecutorial authority to attack his political enemies. The AG’s office first announced it was “investigating” Mr. Trump in mid-September—the better to begin a round of bad headlines—and has also been touting its inquiry into Trump University. While it’s possible the Trump Foundation has violated in some way “section 172 of Article 7-A New York’s Executive Law,” it’s notable that the best Mr. Schneiderman could drum up by way of “fraud” was a paperwork technicality.

The bigger point is timing. Mr. Schneiderman’s cease-and-desist order, coming a month before a general election, smells like partisan politics. The AG has endorsed Mrs. Clinton and sits on the Democratic nominee’s New York “leadership council,” which the Clinton campaign describes as the “in-state leadership” for her campaign, charged with “amplifying the campaign’s national voice to New York families” and “aiding the campaign with rapid response.”

Mr. Schneiderman’s prosecution of her opponent certainly qualifies as “rapid.” He could easily have waited until Nov. 9 to divulge his investigation and unveil his order. If the Trump Foundation has been deficient with its paperwork for as long as the AG’s office says, a few more weeks of delay would hardly hurt.

“To the public it will appear that Schneiderman acted not in the interest of his client, the State, but for whatever influence his announcement might have on the election outcome,” NYU School of Law Professor Stephen Gillers told LawNewz.com, and Mr. Gillers is no conservative.

Witness how responsible prosecutors operate: In Florida, state attorney Mark Ober recently requested that Governor Rick Scott assign a different attorney to look into allegations that Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi was influenced by a Trump campaign donation. Mr. Ober noted that he had worked with Ms. Bondi for decades and viewed her as a “close personal friend,” and that his oversight of the case would be a conflict of interest. Mr. Schneiderman isn’t even feigning an interest in the neutral application of law.

There’s also Mr. Schneiderman’s screaming double standard. A September Scripps News investigation found that “year after year the [Clinton Foundation and Clinton Health Access Initiative] have ignored New York law and related instructions” when it comes to revealing foreign donors. New York charity law requires nonprofits to divulge the name of each government “agency” (foreign or domestic) and “the amount of each contribution” each year. It found that Mr. Schneiderman has the power to force that disclosure but has refused to do so.

This abdication is especially notable given that Mr. Schneiderman has been on a tear to force conservative nonprofits to reveal their confidential lists of donors—the better for the left to know whom to harass and target. The lawless AG has sued an outfit known as Citizens United to get its donor list, and in late August he convinced a federal judge to help him trammel that group’s First Amendment rights. Mr. Schneiderman bragged, as usual, that this disclosure is protecting his state from “fraud and abuse.”

New York citizens deserve to be protected from abuse—of the prosecutorial kind that Mr. Schneiderman is exercising to swing an election. The irony is that Mr. Trump’s critics keep telling us that he must be defeated because he poses a unique threat to the U.S. Constitution and the rule of law. What about the abuses that Mr. Schneiderman is practicing now? Where’s the liberal outrage?
Title: VP debate tonight
Post by: ccp on October 04, 2016, 05:51:13 AM
Hopefully Mike Pence can make the big picture case  we have on this board prayed for during the last 10 years rather than simply listening to narcissism for 90% of an hour and a half:

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/how-to-watch-vice-presidential-debate/
Title: VP debate
Post by: ccp on October 05, 2016, 08:32:07 AM
Republicans seem happy with Pence.  But what about undecideds that is the key?  Personally I didn't think Pence was quite forceful enough or convincing enough to win over undecideds. 
For example,
Just saying tax cuts and deregulation is ok with me but that ain't gonna grab undecided voters while Kaine kept at it with the gigantic tax write off Trump can take that most other people have no comparable ability to do.
I don't think he was convincing to undecideds. 

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440725/vice-presidential-debate-mike-pence-parries-tim-kaine-easily

And the CNN moderator  had 2 *hit* follow up  questions near the beginning of the debate ala Lester Holt and the rest of the CNN crew but I heard zero comparable *hit* questions to Kaine. 

Title: Re: VP debate
Post by: DDF on October 05, 2016, 08:46:27 AM
Republicans seem happy with Pence.  But what about undecideds that is the key?  Personally I didn't think Pence was quite forceful enough or convincing enough to win over undecideds. 
For example,
Just saying tax cuts and deregulation is ok with me but that ain't gonna grab undecided voters while Kaine kept at it with the gigantic tax write off Trump can take that most other people have no comparable ability to do.
I don't think he was convincing to undecideds. 

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440725/vice-presidential-debate-mike-pence-parries-tim-kaine-easily

And the CNN moderator  had 2 *hit* follow up  questions near the beginning of the debate ala Lester Holt and the rest of the CNN crew but I heard zero comparable *hit* questions to Kaine. 



I saw two people that I know are liberals (very liberal), express their like of Pence over Kaine. At this point, I think people for the most part are decided. I saw someone mention that Clinton could throw babies off of the top of a building, and her supporters still wouldn't care. Trump supporters, due to hatred of Hillary and what she has done and stands for, same thing almost, except Trump hasn't done anything that costs people's lives, hasn't deliberately destroyed property of Americans in the way of government documents, denying those Americans their right through the FOIA to see what they contained, but I'm preaching to the choir.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 05, 2016, 08:57:50 AM
"I saw two people that I know are liberals (very liberal), express their like of Pence over Kaine."

Well, hopefully I may be wrong and undecideds will also feel this way.
Title: WSJ
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 05, 2016, 09:45:37 AM
If Donald Trump could make the case for Donald Trump half as well as Mike Pence makes the case for Donald Trump, the New York businessman would be well on his way to the White House. That’s our conclusion from Tuesday’s vice presidential debate, in which the Indiana Governor made the sustained case against the Hillary Clinton-Barack Obama status quo in Washington that Mr. Trump should have made last week.

Mr. Pence is a former radio talk show host, and it showed with his cool, articulate delivery. His earnest, low-key demeanor was a notable contrast to Tim Kaine, whose strategy seemed to be to interrupt Mr. Pence at every opportunity. Perhaps the Virginia Senator studied Joe Biden’s strategy from four years ago when the Vice President did the same against Paul Ryan, but Mr. Kaine is not a natural bully. Our guess is that his endless interruptions grated on millions of viewers.

Mr. Kaine’s marching orders clearly were to absorb the Clinton campaign’s opposition research file on Mr. Trump, keep repeating it, and dare Mr. Pence to defend it. The point seemed to be to remind Americans that Mr. Trump can be crude, nasty and untutored. This fits the Clinton campaign strategy to delegitimize Mr. Trump personally as a potential President. His affirmative case for Mrs. Clinton and her agenda were almost afterthoughts.

For the most part Mr. Pence dodged this trap, going back on offense against the Clinton-Obama record rather than defend every Trump statement, many of which are indefensible. This is a useful lesson for Mr. Trump to take into the next debate on Sunday night, a town hall in which audience members will ask the questions. People want to like their Presidents.

The most notable substantive exchanges occurred on foreign policy, with Mr. Pence offering a detailed critique of Mr. Obama’s record and growing global disorder. Mr. Kaine kept saying that Hillary Clinton was part of the team that killed Osama bin Laden, but that is old antiterror news. Mr. Pence replied that the main terror threat now is Islamic State, which he rightly said grew out of “the vacuum” left when President Obama withdrew all U.S. troops from Iraq.

Also notable was the debate on Russia, with Mr. Kaine claiming that Mr. Trump has business ties with “oligarchs” that cause him to apologize for Vladimir Putin. Mr. Trump’s admiration for Mr. Putin is mysterious and worrisome. But Mr. Pence pointed out that Mrs. Clinton’s hawkishness-come-lately on Russia follows years of weak policy that invited Mr. Putin’s aggression. Mr. Pence reminded the audience what a classic Republican security policy sounds like—if only Mr. Trump would adopt it.

Vice presidential debates don’t typically change the course of an election, but this one could be different if Mr. Trump heeds its lessons in his next debate. The Republican has slid in the polls since the first debate by getting lost in dead-end issues and self-indulgent Twitter bursts. If this is the Trump who shows up on Sunday, he will validate the Kaine critique and the election will essentially be over.

The alternative is to follow the Pence template of doing your homework, sounding presidential, and making the case for change from the failures of the last seven years on the economy and security. If Mr. Trump wants to win, his running mate showed him the way.
Title: Mrrris on the VP debate
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 05, 2016, 09:47:53 AM
http://www.dickmorris.com/pence-won-debate-boost-trump-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/?utm_source=dmreports&utm_medium=dmreports&utm_campaign=dmreports
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, VP Debate, Mike Pence, Tim Kaine
Post by: DougMacG on October 07, 2016, 10:41:32 AM
(A little late to this as a post disappeared in my computer...)

VP choices are supposed to bring you no votes.  Mike Pence may be the exception.  He warms Trump to the middle and firms up the base a little.  I have been speaking highly of Pence since before the entire election cycle and spoke highly of Pence when Trump chose him.  Pence made me proud in this debate.  He projects a lot of good qualities, looks calm, ready and Presidential.  He helps firm up conservative voters for Trump, people like me.  No matter what you think of Trump, the pick of Pence shows good judgment to conservatives and gives hope for the American Creed, something that Pence gets.  On the other side of it, Hillary and Kaine offer none of that.  All their proposals are for a government run 'private sector', to run the country with the exact the opposite policies of what worked for her husband.  Implement Chavez-Venezueala policies and expect Reagan-like results.  Sorry, it doesn't work that way.

Pence has experience with a decade in congress, foreign policy experience, and executive experience running a medium sized state.  Under his conservative watch, unemployment was cut in half in Indiana.  Under Tim Kaine's tax and spend tenure, unemployment doubled in Virginia.  Notice that their relative records were not brought up by the co-conspirator moderator or media.  Pence mentioned that once and Kaine let it go by.

As mentioned, Mike Pence is likable to independents and undecideds and he makes conservatism likable to a wider audience.

Kaine was nothing short of annoying throughout the debate with 72 counted interruptions.  Can someone check in this weekend with SNL and see if they picked up on it.  Kaine focused on Trump gaffes' not his policies.  His claim of eternal peace and serenity in Iran was nothing short of astonishing.  He was called out for being scripted and then stayed with the script until everyone but him felt his embarrassment.  I kind of wish they did have an earpiece to the handlers so that someone could have told him to get off it.  The script was very reminiscent of Susan Rice telling on all networks that a video led to an attack.  The world's number one sponsor of terror has given up its long-held nuclear ambition because of the toughness, charm and ingenuity of the former Secretary of State that no one else can see.  What really happened is what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called, this agreement paves the path for Iran to become a very real nuclear threat.  On top of that, we airlifted them the money.  

In a Presidential tragedy, it would be very easy to see Pence step in, composed and ready to lead the country.

All Pence gained is lost if Trump steps up Sunday with another bad debate of his own.  I look for Trump to show up sharper and readier than he was in the first debate, and the format perhaps favors him.  
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 07, 2016, 03:40:51 PM
Now  we know what the next topic at the town hall will be with liberal leftist moderators.   :cry:
Title: No such luck
Post by: ccp on October 08, 2016, 09:34:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/will-trump-quit-presidential-race-what-happens-2016-10
Title: Re: No such luck
Post by: G M on October 08, 2016, 06:03:04 PM
http://www.businessinsider.com/will-trump-quit-presidential-race-what-happens-2016-10

Wait, wasn't it the left that proclaimed that sex doesn't matter as a topic of morality for public office?
Title: Revenge of the beauty queens
Post by: ccp on October 09, 2016, 06:41:03 AM
Gretchen Carlson, Machado, and now Odell........

"Wait, wasn't it the left that proclaimed that sex doesn't matter as a topic of morality for public office?"

True, but I dream he will turn tonights town hall into a Pence like performance.  I didn't even think Pence did as well as others did because he did not respond to the name calling.  Indeed I was wrong and the strategy  worked!

In my heart I know Trump probably will not, or cannot do that.  Instead of apologizing and moving on he will do what he always does.  And again the always Trumpsters will cheer and the Nevertrumpsters will be disgusted and those in the middle will tip to Clinton and those like me will just lament..........

 
Title: 2016 Presidential Debate 09 October, 2016
Post by: DDF on October 10, 2016, 07:25:38 AM
By far, the best attack of the night:

“It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country,” Mrs. Clinton observed.

“Because,” Mr. Trump replied “you’d be in jail.”

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/clinton-trump-second-debate-election-2016/because-youd-be-in-jail

Edit: I chose this specific op/ed piece, because it shows plainly, the Left's contempt of the law when it's one of their own involved, referring to Trump as a "dictator."
Title: Another great Trump response
Post by: ccp on October 10, 2016, 08:24:53 AM
This one was pretty good too:


"Clinton said Lincoln used different arguments with different members of Congress to get them to abolish slavery, calling his tactics “principled and strategic.” She then condemned the hack, saying she believed it was evidence that Russia was interfering in the U.S. election to favor Trump.

Trump hit back, making fun of Clinton for comparing her comments to the actions of Lincoln.

“She lied. Now she’s blaming the lie on the late, great Abraham Lincoln,” Trump said. “Honest Abe never lied. That’s the big difference between Abraham Lincoln and you. That’s a big, big difference. We’re talking about some difference.”

[Hill,  your no Abe Lincoln!]
Title: Re: Another great Trump response
Post by: DDF on October 10, 2016, 10:24:38 AM
This one was pretty good too:


"Clinton said Lincoln used different arguments with different members of Congress to get them to abolish slavery, calling his tactics “principled and strategic.” She then condemned the hack, saying she believed it was evidence that Russia was interfering in the U.S. election to favor Trump.

Trump hit back, making fun of Clinton for comparing her comments to the actions of Lincoln.

“She lied. Now she’s blaming the lie on the late, great Abraham Lincoln,” Trump said. “Honest Abe never lied. That’s the big difference between Abraham Lincoln and you. That’s a big, big difference. We’re talking about some difference.”

[Hill,  your no Abe Lincoln!]

I agree!

Also..... I think that the fact that every debate moderator this election year, being a liberal (including the upcoming Chris Wallace), should be addressed. Especially when the Commission on Presidential Debates claims to be bi-partisan.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 10, 2016, 12:42:49 PM
Regarding the 'lewd tape', one thing that seems to be overlooked is that it was Hillary's camp I believe that brought this into the public view - so that she could tell you to keep your young boys and girls away from the debate.  The electorate knew he has made comments about women, breast sizes etc.  Certainly it makes it worse to hear this including non-consensual allusions, but if she wanted the debate to be on the issues, she could have made her attacks on the issues.  They have been publicly offering rewards for coming up with material like this.  I expect more.  It's still early (October).

In the debate, Trump fought her to a draw.  Proved he offers a serious alternative to governing.  Proved that electing Hillary and the Clinton's in a binary election is no sure way to make the White House squeaky clean and free of debauchery. 

On the HRC side, it has always been said that the more people get to see her, the less they like her.  Trump has attached her to the status quo and is actively attacking the quality of the status quo on economic and foreign policy arguments.  She likely will still lead as this latest scandal and debate settle, but her numbers everywhere are consistently well under 50%.

Stated earlier on the forum, oddly it was Democrats, liberals and Clinton defenders that argued loudly that personal conduct has no relevance to the office of the Presidency.  I may disagree and argued long and hard for Republicans to choose someone else before this surfaced, but at this point, what choice do we have?

Holier than thou Republicans, purists, Rinos and establishment types better get back on track fairly soon.  This election will have consequences.
Title: Glenn Beck endorses Constitution Party
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 11, 2016, 12:37:06 AM
http://castle2016.com/home/
Title: reason to vote Trump
Post by: ccp on October 11, 2016, 07:27:29 AM
I don't agree that I needed the hysterical mass media to get me upset when I heard Trump's 11 yo rant about sexual assault.  I was just totally offended and disgusted.  Locker room talk about sex-capades or talking about girl's bodies is one thing.  But grabbing women and kissing them or grabbing their private parts is not something I or anyone I knew (with one exception) would approve, though I am sure it may be in some circles.   Yeah , I know , the old John Wayne movies where the leading man grabs the girl and forceably kisses her till she gives in to her passion and moments later is passionately kissing him back.........

I agree with the final conclusion as to why we need still need to vote Trump:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440944/donald-trump-tape-liberal-hysteria

some people I know who are Republican will simply write in candidates .  They refuse to vote Trump.  I admit I don't understand when they know they are helping Clinton but they tell me it is something about conscious......
Title: Dr. Ben to the rescue
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 11, 2016, 08:43:33 PM
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/10/11/ben-carson-stuns-cnn-anchor-with-his-defense-of-trump-s-lewd-200/21580333/
Title: Hillary and Putin sitting in a tree
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 12, 2016, 08:30:21 AM
second post
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2016/10/11/wikileaks-clinton-bragged-putin-taking-private-inner-sanctum/
Title: Lavrov on the 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 12, 2016, 01:50:10 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/12/russias_lavrov_so_many_pussies_around_the_presidential_campaign_on_both_sides_that_i_prefer_not_to_comment.html
Title: Why?
Post by: ccp on October 13, 2016, 06:39:47 AM
 :cry:

Why oh why am I forced to vote and defend this kind of person:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
Yes I know these are just allegations but the same could be said of Cosby, Clinton, etc

Is this fate?
Is this the "folly" of mankind?
Is this some sort of test?
Of morality?
Of my conscious?
Of nihilism?
Of religion?
Of end justifies the means?

Is this a sad joke on us?
I spent decades feeling disgusted by Bill Clinton and blaming the two of them for dragging this country down.

Now I am voting for this guy?

 :x
Title: Trump Repeats Call to Jail Clinton
Post by: DDF on October 13, 2016, 07:58:47 AM
"She has to go to jail," he added, to rousing cheers.

"Based on her crimes, she should not be allowed to run for president. It's time for a new direction," he said, to chants of "Lock her up!" from the crowd.


https://www.yahoo.com/news/explosive-trump-repeats-call-jail-clinton-232642126.html

In regard to the allegations cast against Trump, I don't believe any of it. The accusers had years to accuse Trump, including a case that was even thrown out, and only when he runs against someone that has been found to be a criminal, cheat, corrupt and two-faced, does these accusers come forward, especially in regard to the timing of the wikileaks releases and sheer media bandstanding for Clinton.

It tells me almost everything I need to know.

Trump is going to CRUSH Clinton in November. The ratio of support (disregarding the polls that are ALL run by people from the Left), is vastly in favor of Trump.

Any look at facebook, twitter, youtube likes and comments, will quickly give you the following:

Facebook Support:
Trump - 11,367,570 followers
Trump For President - 1,848,693 followers
Clinton - 7,023,564 followers
Clinton For President - 588,356

Twitter Support:
Trump - 12,421,017 followers
Clinton - 9,684,799 followers

Rally Attendance:
Trump - 337,995
Clinton - 13,970
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/after-first-2-full-months-since-conventions-trump-is-crushing-hillary-in-campaign-event-attendance/

Youtube Channels:
Trump - 69,561 subscribers (Trump allows commenting)
Clinton - 82,540 subscribers (Does not allow comments, because when she has, the response is filled with vitriol & her videos have far more dislikes than likes on average, )
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9W0F2mz1jc 27K likes to 80,000 dislikes

There is NO WAY, that Trump is receiving this type of support, and losing to Clinton. Even Michael Moore and other leftists have said it.

The polls, just like the media, are doing everything in their considerable power, to elect someone that the Attorney General and Obama have protected, and failing outright rigging the voting machines, they're going to fail.

One interesting aspect of polls and online numbers, is the age factor in regard to elderly, that do not have a large online presence, but who may well heavily favor Trump, and the fact that it is socially "safe" to support Clinton. Here, I myself, have to be careful about how much support I show for Trump, and there are many who are in that predicament, especially since the Left is so quick to brand someone as "racist," "xenophobe," etc.

In fact, I was just called that last night by my sister in law (a Liberal Mexican), and when I asked her what Trump said specifically that was racist, she couldn't quote him, so I quoted him for her. When I explained TPP and what it will really mean to Mexico, once the US economy is gutted and what that will mean to Mexico in terms of money sent back being cut to almost zero, she didn't care, and I am sure, she thinks I am a bad man because of it... and she used to love me. She called me a "pendejo, racist, xenophobe," even after explaining the facts and that it wasn't even her right to have an opinion in the matter.

Thankfully she wields no power over me. How many people are afraid of their bosses finding out they support Trump?

Clinton is going to get smashed in November.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 13, 2016, 09:05:35 AM
"Trump is going to CRUSH Clinton in November"

From your mouth to Gods ears so to speak.

 I must say his oratory skills are really good.  He is every bit as good as Obama
 and he has been the only Repub who has said things that need to be said and establish goals that need to be set.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 13, 2016, 09:48:24 AM
"Trump is going to CRUSH Clinton in November"

From your mouth to Gods ears so to speak.

 I must say his oratory skills are really good.  He is every bit as good as Obama
 and he has been the only Repub who has said things that need to be said and establish goals that need to be set.

We're not far off from the results. I remain confident.

Edit: I'm about to quote Michelle Obama from her speech today, to what seemed to be a packed gymnasium. Her speech has garnered some 554,000 views thus far (not sure why Clinton can't get out of bed). Trump's speech yesterday OTOH, was to some 30,000 people, and has garnered 1.5 million views. We'll see where Michelle's speech sits in view count tomorrow.

Far from wishful thinking.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 14, 2016, 01:12:45 PM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/196388/satisfaction-remains-low-leading-election.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

Yet more than 50% are satisfied/approve with/of Obama ?  :?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 15, 2016, 01:10:35 AM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/196388/satisfaction-remains-low-leading-election.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

Yet more than 50% are satisfied/approve with/of Obama ?  :?

Because a good chunk of the population is stupid.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 15, 2016, 04:14:49 AM
"Because a good chunk of the population is stupid."

AND, no matter what, the media left him skate.  Despite abuse of power, deceit, tail wagging the dog, mistakes all over the place on foreign policy. and corruption all the way to the top.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 15, 2016, 10:48:06 AM
Yet more than 50% are satisfied/approve with/of Obama ?

This is a real problem in the dynamic of the race, in addition to the problems with the change candidate.  But maybe that polled approval is personal to Obama and not transferable to his chosen successor.

Here is another measure of the same question:

Right Direction  30.4
Wrong Track     63.6
Spread            -33.2
RCP Average as of today
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

If wrong track out-polls right direction by more than two to one and one candidate clearly represents more of the same, there is a mile-wide opening for a challenger to drive through even with today's electorate where half the people have below average intelligence.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 16, 2016, 10:44:03 PM
You two can sit there and believe the media's polls if you want to. I buy none of it.

I don't know if it's true or not, but I've seen that Reagan was behind 12 points in the polls as well and killed it.

Trumps sells out stadiums... Clinton can't fill a high school gymnasium.

I know you don't like Trump, and that he wasn't favored here. I called that early on. I'm calling this too. Not being arrogant. It's just that numbers of bodies don't lie.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Iowahawk, the choice...
Post by: DougMacG on October 17, 2016, 06:29:11 AM
“A team of 7 people editing your tweets is God’s way of telling you you shouldn’t be president of the United States
Iowahawk:  “your choice is between someone who tweets like an idiot and someone who requires a small army of editors to avoid tweeting like an idiot.”
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on October 17, 2016, 03:04:03 PM
You two can sit there and believe the media's polls if you want to. I buy none of it.

I don't know if it's true or not, but I've seen that Reagan was behind 12 points in the polls as well and killed it.

Trumps sells out stadiums... Clinton can't fill a high school gymnasium.

I know you don't like Trump, and that he wasn't favored here. I called that early on. I'm calling this too. Not being arrogant. It's just that numbers of bodies don't lie.

There are far more people in cemeteries that will turn out to vote for Clinton. Also, it's not about the national numbers, it's about the electoral college.
Title: Re: DNC Violence
Post by: DDF on October 17, 2016, 07:47:31 PM
Rigging the Election - Video I: Clinton Campaign and DNC Incite Violence at Trump Rallies

[youtube]5IuJGHuIkzY[/youtube]
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 17, 2016, 07:49:53 PM
You two can sit there and believe the media's polls if you want to. I buy none of it.

I don't know if it's true or not, but I've seen that Reagan was behind 12 points in the polls as well and killed it.

Trumps sells out stadiums... Clinton can't fill a high school gymnasium.

I know you don't like Trump, and that he wasn't favored here. I called that early on. I'm calling this too. Not being arrogant. It's just that numbers of bodies don't lie.

There are far more people in cemeteries that will turn out to vote for Clinton. Also, it's not about the national numbers, it's about the electoral college.

Agreed.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 18, 2016, 10:10:05 AM
Even for those who disagree with Trump on rigged elections

Trump’s ‘Rigged’ Election—and Bernie’s
Donald is wrong, but where do you think he got the idea?
0:00 / 0:00
Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot on Donald Trump’s warnings about voter fraud and media bias. Photo credit: Reuters.
Oct. 17, 2016 7:01 p.m. ET
631 COMMENTS

Donald Trump recently declared himself “unshackled,” and now we know what he meant: The businessman is in full Steve Bannon-Breitbart mode, invoking an international conspiracy to steal the election and maybe fluoridate the water. As demagogic as this rhetoric is, his critics sure are selective in their outrage.

“The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary - but also at many polling places - SAD,” Mr. Trump posted on Twitter Sunday night. He followed up Monday morning that “of course” there is “large scale voter fraud,” and the plot against him is now a regular line at his rallies. This is Mr. Trump’s response to the oppo-research hits about his personal misconduct and sexual ethics, though he tends to conflate his two “rigging” claims about electoral fraud and media bias.

No presidential candidate should portray U.S. elections as illegitimate, and Mike Pence was right to say Sunday that the GOP will “absolutely” abide by November’s results. Hillary Clinton is not going to steal the White House like Lyndon Johnson stole a Texas Senate seat in 1948. Voting irregularities are real, and cheating sometimes happens, especially in machine cities, but voters should have confidence in the electoral system. There’s zero evidence that the process is compromised across multiple states and precincts.

But the liberal freak-out over Mr. Trump’s allegedly “unprecedented” and “dangerous” remarks could use some perspective. Where would Mr. Trump possibly get the idea that the system is rigged?

Well, maybe he listened to Bernie Sanders, who in January described his “message, which says that the economy today is rigged, that it benefits the wealthy and the powerful at the expense of everybody else, that the campaign finance system that exists today is corrupt and undermining American democracy.” Or maybe Mr. Trump caught Elizabeth Warren at the Democratic convention saying “the system is rigged” or “the rigged system” five times in one speech.

President Obama and Eric Holder also regularly push the canard that voter-identification laws are attempts at racially motivated disenfranchisement. As recently as 2014, Democrats attempting to keep the Senate tried to motivate minority turnout with ads that explicitly played on black fears of intimidation.

African-American registration and voting increased, and at a faster rate than white participation, after allegedly racist North Carolina and Georgia recently passed voter ID laws, but that’s not the point. Democrats can’t sauce this goose and then complain when Mr. Trump adopts their tactics for his purposes.

As it happens, David Remnick reported in the New Yorker last year that John Kerry is convinced that the George W. Bush campaign manipulated the voting machines in 2004 to carry Ohio. The Secretary of State even used this “very personal experience” to reassure Afghans that free and fair elections are hard, even in advanced countries. We can’t recall the media assault on the top U.S. diplomat for subverting U.S. democracy with such baseless speculation, and where Mr. Trump does have a point is when he says the press corps is nearly unanimous against him.

This is usually the case with Republicans, though the difference this year is that journalists say openly that Mr. Trump is a unique threat to democracy. The First Amendment stalwarts would have more credibility if they hadn’t portrayed Mitt Romney as a plundering executive with retrograde family values, or tried to take down John McCain in 2008 with innuendo about philandering. GOP voters understand that it doesn’t matter how admirable their nominee is, the press will still trash him.
***

The question for the media this year is that if Mr. Trump poses a threat to the American way, where were they during the GOP primaries? Back then, progresssive partisans who now say Mr. Trump will end civilization turned out columns like “Why Liberals Should Support a Trump Republican Nomination” or “Why I’m more worried about Marco Rubio than Donald Trump.”

Many in the media cheered on Mr. Trump when it appeared that he might oppose the GOP’s traditional free-market agenda. NBC’s “Access Hollywood” tape with Mr. Trump and Billy Bush is 11 years old, and weren’t Howard Stern’s greatest hits as relevant last autumn as they are said to be now? It’s not a conspiracy theory to think that the stories coming out in late October are no accident.

Disqualifying Mr. Trump with a dump of sleazy passes at women was sure to enrage his supporters who know the history of Bill and Hillary Clinton. Mr. Trump always overreacts and thus he’s on a path to lose—and if he keeps raving about “the illusion of democracy,” as he did last week in West Palm Beach, he’ll deserve to. But in winning ugly, Mrs. Clinton and the left will pay a steep price in even more polarized and divisive politics.
Title: Proof of the Democratic Consiracy to Commit Voter Fraud - 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 18, 2016, 12:08:37 PM
In which people that aren't citizens can be registered to vote, denying American's their right to sovereignty.

[youtube]hDc8PVCvfKs[/youtube]
Title: Last 2016 Presidential Debate
Post by: DDF on October 18, 2016, 07:05:52 PM
I grew up playing chess, with a master chess player.

If I'm Trump tomorrow, I would tell Hillary Clinton that she needs to withdraw from the election. Between the DNC and Sanders, the corruption, the fact that she can't remember, and now this, there's a very good case to be made.

It is obvious that Clinton will not withdraw, but with the mountains of evidence from Wikileaks, from her servers, from the DNC, from the presidential election, being racist, voting machines, Democratic resistance to voter Id's, labeling Americans as "deplorables," all of which show a callous disregard for the guaranteed rights of every American, and Trump can use it to guarantee at least a stalemate should Clinton be "declared" the victor.

There is no denying Democratic resistance to voter Id's and poll rosters being purged.

There is no denying that voter machines are flawed and controlled by outsiders.

There is no denying that Clinton, at every turn, has been inundated with controversies.

There is no denying that her honesty or memory (one or the other), are faulty.

There is no denying that she is pandering to Hispanics in Spanish.

There is n denying that even after Wasserman-Schultz was found to be lacking morals, she still hired her... immediately.

There is no denying the media sent 96% of their contributions to Democrats and are bought, as are the polls.



If I'm Trump, tomorrow night is the night I try to win it all, or fracture the country (and it may well need to be fractured at this point).

The worst he can walk away with is a stalemate and half of the country under his leadership, and with the amount of doubt in the voting machines and the dishonesty shown by the Democrats, calling the election results into question, at this point, isn't unreasonable.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 18, 2016, 07:25:33 PM
Trump is failing to close the deal on his gravitas ("presidential-ness").  Everything else is secondary to that.

He should delegate the muck and the wonkery to his extremely capable team-- i.e. who would be doing what under a President Trump:

Gen Flynn for geopolitics, war with Islamo Fascism, Russia, Cyberwar
Christie for the indictment
Carson for Obamacare
Giuliani for Homeland Security and Law & Order
Gingrich for political tactics, dealing with Congress legislation
Team with Paul Ryan on specifics for enabling development of underclass neighborhoods.  Ryan is a true student of this under Jack Kemp and should have a bunch of stuff ready to go.
Ivanka for interface on women's issues
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 18, 2016, 08:13:57 PM
"Christie for the indictment"

Christie is in real trouble here in NJ and may himself get indicted.
Witnesses are lining up against him as the Democratic machine sharpens there arrows.

Ivanka's recent statement was very good.  Has anyone EVER heard Chelsea say her father was in appropriate.    She is the same as her mother.  Ignore the questions, change the subject , blame the right, lie and just smile with that Web Hubbell smile of hers. 

"Trump is failing to close the deal on his gravitas ("presidential-ness").  Everything else is secondary to that."

7 billion people know this except one.   :-(
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 19, 2016, 08:30:14 AM
Trump is failing to close the deal on his gravitas ("presidential-ness").  Everything else is secondary to that.

He should delegate the muck and the wonkery to his extremely capable team-- i.e. who would be doing what under a President Trump:

Gen Flynn for geopolitics, war with Islamo Fascism, Russia, Cyberwar
Christie for the indictment
Carson for Obamacare
Giuliani for Homeland Security and Law & Order
Gingrich for political tactics, dealing with Congress legislation
Team with Paul Ryan on specifics for enabling development of underclass neighborhoods.  Ryan is a true student of this under Jack Kemp and should have a bunch of stuff ready to go.
Ivanka for interface on women's issues


I agree.  A full team in place could show he is serious about winning and governing and allow people to envision a Trump administration.  Releasing his Supreme Court list helped him, made him look serious, and conservative.  The Pence pick was instrumental, showed wisdom on Trump's part.  Grow the team now.  Add gravitas.  Or lose.
Title: Dem operative behind violence spent lots of time at White House
Post by: G M on October 19, 2016, 12:19:31 PM
http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/18/exposed-dem-operative-who-oversaw-trump-rally-agitators-visited-white-house-342-times/

Just a guy from Obama's neighborhood. Nothing to see here, move along.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 19, 2016, 01:25:38 PM
GM wrote,

"http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/18/exposed-dem-operative-who-oversaw-trump-rally-agitators-visited-white-house-342-times/

Just a guy from Obama's neighborhood. Nothing to see here, move along."


Rivals the WH visits of both ERic Schmidt, and Al Sharpton of race baiting fame.  I wonder if O has some girls on the side when he is not on airplanes?  :wink:

No collusion suspected.  No biggie.  Just friends.  

Rush tried to explain today why Obama has a 55% approval rating while the majority of the people think the country is in the wrong direction.

He says it is because people do not link him to all the things goin wrong.

Another problems is the Republican Party ceased being the opposition party around 10 to 15 years ago.

I don't think he mentioned also that the media is simply not doing its watch dog job like it used to.   I am sure he would agree with this as well.
Title: Pravda on the Beach (LA Times) has Trump ahead?!?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 19, 2016, 04:18:17 PM
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/#perceived-vote
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 20, 2016, 07:23:27 AM
Trump set up again with the would you accept the election results question.  He justifiably set he will look at it at the time.  And the media are like bison running from wolves falling all over themselves to make THAT the all important headline.  totally ignoring multiple reports of election fraud including a Dem operative who visited the WH hundreds of times admitting they commit election fraud all the time.

I agree with Joe Scarborough on this:

https://mediamatters.org/video/2016/10/20/joe-scarborough-lashes-out-media-defends-trumps-refusal-say-whether-hed-accept-election-results/213978

I don't know why so many Republicans talk like LEFTISTS on this and other matters and jump on the me too bandwagon agreeing with the LEFT media onslaught that is trying to make THIS the Trump outrage de jour to diminish his very good debate performance and deflect from their girl.

They just don't get it do they?  Or they refuse to accept it.  Or they are just protecting their personal interests in money and power. 
Title: Remember the 2000 election
Post by: ccp on October 20, 2016, 10:17:23 AM
Here is the synopsis of AlGORe who would not concede the election for 45 days:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/10/why-trumps-election-results-comments-are-no-different-than-what-al-gore-did-in-2000

But Axelrod spins it around calling Gore a hero for conceding (not mentioned - 45 days after election day and trying every trick he could to change the result).

Yet the MSM and Never Trumpers state he should be willing to concede the election results 'up front'

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 20, 2016, 11:46:37 AM
It doesn't matter who wins at this point.

The United States has suffered a marital argument from which, there is no recovery.

Vote rigging in terms of machines, lack of paper ballots and resistance from the Left everytime voter ID comes up.

There is no fixing this, this time around. Smart people already know it.

Whoever wins, the other side (just as Gore has), will contest the vote, feel cheated (and with good reason, congressional hearings on the matter not being the least of them), and will never accept the other side as their leader.

This ends in either a divided republic or a Trump presidency, and even if Trump wins, the country is so balkanized, that it cannot be fixed, due to the disparity in political ideology.

Whether that division is peaceful or not is another matter.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, 3rd debate
Post by: DougMacG on October 20, 2016, 11:58:32 AM
1.  Heller wasn't about toddlers.  It was about the right or lack of a right of a 66 year old retired policeman to own a gun in Washington DC where the local government had banned guns in defiance of the 2nd amendment.  .0001 of gun deaths are toddlers.  Hillary lied.  She opposes the second amendment and is too dishonest and expedient to just propose its repeal.

2. What is 'difficult' about Roe-Wade, pro-life, "pro-choice' and difficult, personal healthcare decisions is that it takes a life.  She can blather with the best about cancer screening, as if only an abortion house can do that, and NEVER mention why the "choice" is difficult. It takes a life, 98% of abortions are for convenience reasons and support for partial birth abortions puts you in the furthest left of the left beyond even her own party.  Hillary lied by omission.

3. Hillary does not support open borders?  But that is exactly what she said and she supports the status quo that every reasonable person categorizes as open borders.  She explicitly supported everything that failed in Reagan's reform and the 2006 border act.

Her Brazilian comment about her dream of open borders was about energy.  Really?  Energy borders??

4. Hillary's described her economic plan only in terms of government making 'investments' in things that used to be private sector.  Distinguished it in NO way from the Obama plan that brought $10 trillion more debt and 1% growth.

5. TPP, She was for it before she was against it.  He will negotiate a better one.  She will do what?  Didn't say.  Just spewing what her pollsters and political advisers wrote.

6. Hillary defended the good work of the Foundation without denying or addressing the question about pay to play that has  been documented and proven.

7.  Hillary blamed Bush for the Obama economy.  Seriously??  What Bush did wrong is fail to oppose Democratic policies she STILL supports.

8.  Most noteworthy are all the things not mentioned.  Number one in my mind, This Clinton opposes all the policies that unleashed private sector growth in the Clinton I administration and supports all the policies that held back growth, income and wages in the Obama and Chavez-Maduro administrations.

The fallout from this is unknown.  Not many are moved on either side no matter what they say but so many undecideds have yet to make their decision.  Hillary looks the readiest to settle in and work with the existing establishment in both parties, the bureaucracy, the media, the allies and the adversaries.  She will be crooked but she is a known crook.  She will steal more furniture, raise the cost of healthcare and government and shrink real wages.  The verdict if she wins is 'more of the same', not 'the first woman' as media will declare.

If Trump wins it will be American Brexit.  The country that polls more than 2:1 wrong track over right direction will have spoken by giving the establishment of both parties and the status quo the back of their hand or worse.  Like Brexit, the country and the new administration will have to pick up the pieces from scratch.  There will be a new tax code.  A deletion of thousands of unconstitutional regulations and a re-opening of all international agreements with an eye toward protecting American interests.  Like or hate Trump personally, that possibility has to be at least tempting for a majority of the people.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 20, 2016, 12:21:43 PM
Doug,


I also had to do five of these  :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

when Hillary said her policies will help small businesses!

That is absurd.   
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, willing suspension of disbelief
Post by: DougMacG on October 20, 2016, 12:35:50 PM
Doug,

I also had to do five of these  :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

when Hillary said her policies will help small businesses!

That is absurd.  

Right and she will also add not a cent to the deficit - by expanding on exactly what caused the last $10 trillion.

For the low hanging curve balls that Trump missed, I wonder if enough viewers get it anyway.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, James Taranto, WSJ
Post by: DougMacG on October 20, 2016, 01:54:25 PM
Let’s try a thought experiment. Suppose that during one of the October 2000 presidential debates, Vice President Al Gore had been asked the following question: “Do you make the . . . commitment that you’ll absolutely accept the result of the election?” Moderator Chris Wallace put that query to Donald Trump last night.

Now for the experimental part: Imagine Gore giving a completely truthful answer—that is, an answer that not only reflected his honest intent but accurately anticipated how he would respond to various scenarios, including the one that actually obtained.

It seems to us that Gore’s hypothetical answer would be similar to Trump’s actual one—not the long back-and-forth in which Trump enumerated complaints including media bias, FBI corruption and poorly maintained voter roles, but the prospective bottom line, to wit: “I will look at it at the time. I’m not looking at anything now, I’ll look at it at the time. . . . What I’m saying is that I will tell you at the time. I’ll keep you in suspense, OK?”

Gore probably wouldn’t have said “I’ll keep you in suspense, OK?”—that’s a distinctly Trumpian bit of showmanship—but if he were being completely truthful, he would say, as Trump did, that he would keep his options open and respond to circumstances as they arose. And did they ever arise. True, Gore delivered a gracious concession speech, but not until Dec. 13, more than a month after Election Day.

It isn’t hard to imagine a counterfactual scenario in which Gore would have conceded on the normal schedule. If George W. Bush’s initial margin in Florida had been, say, 60,000 votes (just over 1% of the total) instead of around 2,000, there would have been nothing to contest. But the narrow margin in a decisive state led to weeks of lawsuits and selective recounts—and, even after Gore’s concession, to years of bitter claims that he wuz robbed.

Among those bitterly clinging to the myth of the stolen election—or at least propagating it for political purposes—was Hillary Clinton.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - 4 seconds, 17 agencies
Post by: DougMacG on October 20, 2016, 04:22:34 PM
"When the president gives the order to launch a nuclear weapon, that’s it. The officer has to launch. It can take as little as four minutes."

   - Wouldn't this information be strategic, if not classified?  Snopes denial that it is classified (they don;t know) makes me think it is classified.
http://www.snopes.com/clinton-four-minute-nuclear/


"We have 17 intelligence agencies, civilian and military, who have all concluded that these espionage attacks, these cyberattacks, come from the highest levels of the Kremlin, and they are designed to influence our election."

PolitiFact says they don't know, therefore true.  Sounds like they made a requested, political determination, subject to change.  Was she also going to reveal methods? 

Same 17 agencies think sending and received classified material of the highest order, like the location of our Ambassador in a war zone, in an unsecured manner, is treason.
Title: WSJ: Hillary's New Constitution
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 20, 2016, 07:43:29 PM


    Opinion Review & Outlook

Hillary’s New Constitution
Clinton explains how she’ll gut the First and Second Amendments.
BakerHostetler Partner David Rivkin on what the final debate revealed about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s vastly different plans for the Supreme Court.
Oct. 20, 2016 7:26 p.m. ET


Donald Trump is no legal scholar, but at Wednesday’s presidential debate he showed a superior grasp of the U.S. Constitution than did Hillary Clinton. Amid the overwrought liberal fainting about Mr. Trump’s bluster over accepting the election result (see below), Mrs. Clinton revealed a view of the Supreme Court that is far more threatening to American liberty.

Start with her answer to moderator Chris Wallace’s question about the role of the courts. “The Supreme Court should represent all of us. That’s how I see the Court,” she said. “And the kind of people that I would be looking to nominate to the court would be in the great tradition of standing up to the powerful, standing up on our behalf of our rights as Americans.”

Where to begin with that one? The Supreme Court doesn’t—or shouldn’t—“represent” anyone. In the U.S. system that’s the job of the elected branches. The courts are appointed, not elected, so they can be nonpartisan adjudicators of competing legal claims.

Mrs. Clinton is suggesting that the Court should be a super-legislature that vindicates the will of what she calls “the American people,” which apparently excludes “the powerful.” But last we checked, the Constitution protects everyone, even the powerful. The law is supposed to protect individual rights, not an abstraction called “the people.”

The Democrat went downhill from there, promising to appoint judges who would essentially rewrite the First and Second Amendments. Asked about the 2008 Heller decision that upheld an individual right to bear arms, Mrs. Clinton claimed to support “reasonable regulation.” She said she criticized Heller because it overturned a District of Columbia law intended merely “to protect toddlers from guns and so they wanted people with guns to safely store them.”

Toddlers had nothing to do with it. What Mrs. Clinton calls “reasonable” was an outright ban on handguns. The D.C. law allowed the city’s police chief to award some temporary licenses—but not even the police officer plaintiff in the case could persuade the District to let him register a handgun to be kept at his home.

Anyone who did lawfully possess a gun had to keep it unloaded and either disassembled or bound by a trigger lock at all times, ensuring it would be inoperable and perhaps useless for self-defense. As Antonin Scalia wrote for the Heller majority, “Few laws in the history of our Nation have come close to the severe restriction of the District’s handgun ban.”

If Mrs. Clinton supports such gun restrictions, then she thinks an individual’s right to bear arms is meaningless. If the Justices she appoints agree with her, then they can gradually turn Heller into a shell of a right, restriction by restriction, even without overturning the precedent.

Then there’s the First Amendment, which Mrs. Clinton wants to rewrite by appointing Justices she said would “stand up and say no to Citizens United, a decision that has undermined the election system in our country because of the way it permits dark, unaccountable money to come into our electoral system.”

Citizens United is the 2010 Supreme Court decision that found that unions and corporations can spend money on political speech—in that specific case for a movie that was critical of Mrs. Clinton. The Democrat seems to take the different view that while atomized individuals might have the right to criticize politicians, heaven forbid if they want to band together to do it as a political interest group.

As for “dark” money, she certainly knows that territory. Does money get any darker than undisclosed Clinton Foundation donations from foreign business magnates tied to uranium concessions in Kazakhstan?

There is at least one right that Mrs. Clinton did suggest she believes to be absolute—to an abortion, at any time during pregnancy right up until birth. She claimed merely to oppose the repeal of Roe v. Wade, which allows some regulation of late-term abortions. But she somehow overlooked Gonzales v. Carhart , the 2007 decision that upheld a legislative ban on so-called partial-birth abortion.

Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote the Carhart opinion that ruled such restrictions are consistent with Roe and the Constitution. Mrs. Clinton kept invoking “the life and the health of the mother” to justify her opposition to any limit on abortion, but Carhart found the life of the mother can be sufficient.

To put all this another way, Mrs. Clinton believes there is no restriction on abortion she would ever support, and there is no restriction on gun rights she would ever oppose. Carhart, Citizens United and Heller were 5-4 decisions, and Mrs. Clinton wants each of them to be litmus tests for her Supreme Court appointments. She mocks Mr. Trump for saying he won’t abide by the election result, but she wants to rewrite the Constitution to fit her own political views.
Title: Now she is ahead in nearly all polls
Post by: ccp on October 21, 2016, 09:47:48 AM
Hilary can get up on stage and proclaim she and most of America are so glad election is almost over.

I can only think that 8 years of her will be much worse to endure.   Especially after 8 years of Obama.   :cry:

Perhaps a good analogy is the remnants of the Republican party is making its way back from Moscow like the French in 1812.

Sure we may come off the island of Elba from one more battle but the end game is assured.

Perhaps I am too dire.  No one can predict the future but this is just the way it appears to me.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Gallup on this day, 2012
Post by: DougMacG on October 21, 2016, 10:23:05 AM
Gallup Poll, October 22, 2012: Romney 52, Obama 45
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49502664
(outlier poll, didn't help Romney's result)

Gallup Poll: Jimmy Carter 47 -- Ronald Reagan 39   09/20/2012
http://lubbockonline.com/interact/blog-post/may/2012-09-20/gallop-poll-jimmy-carter-47-ronald-reagan-39#

Pollsters only get their accuracy checked on their final poll.  Will that cause them to close the gap?  

Trump will close strong, and the race will be closer than the current Oval Office drape measurers think.
Steve Hayward, Powerline.

Trump needs authentic, positive polling give supporters and undecideds reason to think upset is possible.
IBD, Rasmussen and LATimes today have Trump leading.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Is there a shy-Trump vote, where they won't say it but will vote it?  Also, is there a structural polling problem where households as we knew them are no longer reachable?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on October 21, 2016, 10:54:30 AM
Problem is he can't get his message out anymore.  It is buried within the LEFT onslaught of picking and choosing the "news" they wish to release.  CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC, NY and LA TIMES, WASH Post, Google, Facebook, and Associated Press......

Compare this to Drudge, Breitbart, partially Fox, and National and Conservative Reviews, and some talk radio.   
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 21, 2016, 03:16:37 PM
I wonder how many times Stalin was brought up on charges while Lenin was in power.
Title: Some interesting polls
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 21, 2016, 03:35:52 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

http://thefederalistpapers.org/us/poll-shows-trump-5-points-behind-in-az-just-one-huge-problem?utm_source=FBLC&utm_medium=FB&utm_campaign=LC
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, You can vote in America more than once - LEGALLY
Post by: DougMacG on October 24, 2016, 09:50:41 AM
The answer to that is PERSUASION.  Elections matter and elections have consequences.  People ARE influenced by people close to them even though the process is so slow that it seems impossible.

To all the people we all know, especially women and including my daughter and my girlfriend, those from the moderate middle or reasonably persuadable left or even from the right, the answer to their objection to Trump:

IF Trump is a despicable human being, then Hillary is too.  Launching a campaign to DESTROY her husband's accusers only to find out what they all were saying was true, and never repent or try to make these wrongs right makes her a personally despicable human being, a rapist and a groper no further removed from it than the husband she enabled to do it - over a period of DECADES.  She blamed the "right wing conspiracy" for the "attacks on her husband" when all of the accusers were Democrats and supporters of his.  On policy, she lies to the country more often than she tells the truth - and in private, she admits it! You CANNOT base your choice on some kind of personal or political morals and then pull the lever for Hillary.  If you can't cross that moral line to vote Trump, then you can't vote for Hillary either - or else you HAVE crossed it!

For leftists that want to see leftism, loss of sovereignty, declining incomes, absent borders continue, for those 43% or so according to the polls who buy that, HRC is the right choice for them and no amount of last minute persuasion is going to change that.  This is not the time to argue with pure leftists.

For those in the middle and the right who want a change of direction - for the good, Trump-Pence is your only valid choice.  It doesn't mean you endorse his private comments or like his personality.  It means you recognize the republic is in big trouble and if you don't make this choice for change of direction, right now, someone else will make the choice for you.

A friend known to be Republican has already voted absentee.  He told to a group of friends, mostly Democrats, he held his nose and voted.

Hold you nose and vote. 

And spread the word.  We all reach only a relatively small number of people for a relatively short period of time.  Use what influence you have on others wisely.

If Trump is elected and then becomes deserving of removal from office, he can be removed and we end up with President Mike Pence, highly qualified and fully ready.

Hillary cannot be removed from office no matter what laws she breaks.  Democrats have proven that over and over.

Funny that rule of law favors the guy who took advantage of private takings, out-sourced labor, used liberal bankruptcy laws, depreciation, carried interest and loss deductions.  On all these examples  he was complying with the laws as bad as they are.  It's time to change a few laws - and then enforce them for a change.  Hold leaders accountable.  Voting established power out is the only remedy left.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on October 25, 2016, 09:46:51 AM
"We have lost unless by some miracle Trump pulls this out."

Outlier polls that had Trump leading today have Hillary by one.  This is still soooo winnable based on all fundamentals - except the quality of our candidate.  The Obamacare crisis should be filling the news from now until election day.  The failures emerging from our foreign policy and economic woes too.  Trump is connecting on some points with some people.  Now it's a matter of numbers.  I wish this underfunded billionaire would use the last two weeks to put his positive message out in a creative way and reach people.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on October 25, 2016, 11:43:06 AM
"We have lost unless by some miracle Trump pulls this out."

Far from the truth. Even with the machines in Cook County, Illinois, and Counties in Texas, switching votes to Democratic picks, due to "calibration errors," Hillary has only half the support Trump does.

Anything other than that is a bold faced lie and media misrepresentation.
Title: Different scenerios
Post by: ccp on October 31, 2016, 02:22:11 PM
If Clinton wins the election there appear little recourse.   She could not even be impeached for crimes committed prior to being President.  She could and certainly would if she had to pardon herself.
There is ZERO chance of her ever willfully stepping down as one of these scenarios suggest.  So unless Trump wins justice will not be served.  Say Trump wins.  Then Obama will pardon her prior to leaving office.

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/heres-what-could-happen-if-hillary-clinton-is-indicted-or-steps-down/
Title: POTH on Russian connections-- maybe not so much
Post by: Crafty_Dog on October 31, 2016, 09:27:20 PM
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?referer=http%3A%2F%2Fhotair.com%2Fheadlines%2Farchives%2F2016%2F10%2F31%2Fu-s-officials-doubt-trump-has-any-direct-ties-to-russia%2F
Title: Interesting theory from sometimes nut case Lew Rockwell
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 01, 2016, 12:15:44 AM
https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/hillary-arrested-2/
Title: Re: Interesting theory from sometimes nut case Lew Rockwell
Post by: G M on November 01, 2016, 02:12:05 AM
https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/hillary-arrested-2/

That actually makes sense.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 01, 2016, 04:46:12 AM
It also fits into the somewhat surprising response from the WH that Obama feels that Comey is honorable and not partisan.

OTOH bamster did appoint him and would look bad criticizing Comey  now.

OTOH it ain't smart to criticize some one who is investigating just outside your house.
Title: Re: Interesting theory from sometimes nut case Lew Rockwell
Post by: DDF on November 01, 2016, 08:42:32 AM
https://www.lewrockwell.com/political-theatre/hillary-arrested-2/

Should have been filed under "Things That Make You Warm With Happiness."
Title: Re: 2016 election, what if Trump and the Republicans win?
Post by: DougMacG on November 02, 2016, 07:01:21 AM
I have been silent on DDF's prediction of a Trump landslide only because of the failure of my own predictions, that Hillary won't run, won't win the nomination if she does run and won't win if nominated.  That bet seemed well hedged yet I already lost on 2 counts, owing significant meal tabs (canned food from my bunker?) to my friend ccp.

The analysis of this election outside of DDF has focused on what will come of the Republicans Party if they lose it all this year.  20 million new Democrat voters will change things forever.  So will the Court.  The pendulum won't swing back and forth again when we keep adding large weights to one side.

Not mentioned it seems is that the Republicans could win it all next week.

Yes Trump could win.  RCP says Trump already has more than 260 electoral votes if the average of recent polls equal the result.  He has the momentum.  She has disaster, has lost momentum and offense, but has not fully imploded.

Black Vote:  Democrat weakness is reaching critical mass.  When 98% of everyone you know or identify with thinks and votes one way, you don't consider it necessary to think through your own position.  When a number of people whose opinions you respect start to turn the other way, it frees people to consider alternatives and make a different choice.  It may start in the privacy of the polling booth, not in what people tell family, friends and pollsters.  

A 20 point collapse on Hillary's side and a 20 point surge on Trump side of a significant group is a big deal.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/democrats-scrambling-black-vote-surges-trump/
Bigger than that is that it frees other to make a free choice.  Democrat policies have brought failure after failure.  What have you got to lose is a weak argument, but hey, what have you got to lose by re-shuffling the deck and dealing again?  (Meanwhile he polls worse with Hispanics and needs to soften that.)

Women Vote:  Nearly all women I know were disgusted by Trump's words on the secret recording.  Maybe Hillary and the Times or Post came out with that too early.  Now people have had time to consider that it was mostly talk.  Putting someone in the White House who is not disgusting is not the alternative to Trump.  A criminal married to a rapist or a guy who talked dirty years ago in private?  Call it a draw and go back to policy, failed policies versus real change and drain the swamp.  Wong direction outpolls right course by more than 2 to 1.

Never Trumpers:  Conservatives who can't make this choice are crazy and wrong.  I expected most of them to come around.  I still do.  Kasich did a write in.  George W Bush will abstain.  That is two votes lost.  Losing the vote of Republican establishment power has been a net-positive for Trump.  He didn't choose a conventional path.

House and Senate:  The distance between the Republican House and the Republican presidential nominee is also turning into a good thing.  They can work together on policy yet would feel quite free to buck him or even impeach him if warranted.  The removes the need to split the ballot which centrist voters often do to hedge their bet.

Senate race polling has been very close to 50-50 all along.  At 50-50, the Presidential win controls the Senate.  More likely the Presidential win will comes with a surge that also carries one or two Senators the same way, hopefully to the right from my point of view.

Hillary Clinton wins this election in a tie with the big blue wall of electoral votes.  (Gore was the last exception.)  I have believed all along that the Republican needs nearly a 3 point win in the national popular vote to decisively win the electoral college.  That is still possible.  Trump needs to run the table on ALL the swing states and take one or two more that were not believed to be in play about a minute ago.  But that is what happens in a late, national surge.  It is still possible but I make no prediction.

IF IF IF Republicans win the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, which is possible...  Where does that leave
the Democratic Party?  Their last two DNC chairs lost in scandal, wrongly steered the nomination to a crook, liar and a loser.  Both Clintons done.  Obama leaving, and leaving on a loss and with repeal of his agenda coming and also possible investigations into his governance.  Pelosi likely out.  Reid out.  Biden out.  No outside of Washington Dem governors elevated.  Control of state legislatures lost.  Border security in.  Citizenship for illegals out.  Tax reform in.  Economic growth returning.  TPP style sovereignty losses out.  New security agreements with allies coming.  Peace through strength, back.  Respect for law enforcement returns.  Individual responsibility back.  This is a disaster if you are a Democrat who makes a living telling people they are nothing without big government.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 02, 2016, 07:26:43 AM
I still expect the dem fraud machine to win. What is a pyrrhic victory for 1000, Alex?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2016, 07:48:51 AM
 By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
Nov. 1, 2016 7:15 p.m. ET
884 COMMENTS

It’s hard to generalize about Hillary Clinton’s email situation except that she tried to afford herself an extraordinary privilege as a high-ranking official, and then caused for herself exactly the problems (and worse) that she presumably was trying to avoid.

It’s the White House Travel Office, the Rose Law Firm billing records, the Seth Ward option (don’t ask), the health-care task force, etc., all over again.

Mrs. Clinton is a screw-up. And when a trait takes such trouble to announce itself, note must be taken.

Complicating the legal question, of course, is the fact that she didn’t exactly hide her behavior. The State Department knew she was conducting business on a private server. Her boss, the president, exchanged emails with her via what was self-evidently a private email account.

All this being so, many Americans probably would have been happy to see the difficulties bypassed by Mrs. Clinton simply returning all her emails and devices intact to the State Department. This she did not do. In response to reasonable and unavoidable questions about whether her arrangement and subsequent actions violated the law, the Obama administration had no choice but to launch a criminal investigation.
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    ‘Rigged’ Was Hillary Clinton’s FBI Case Oct. 18, 2016

Now a simple home truth is that Mr. Obama and his attorney general, Loretta Lynch, from day one, were hardly indifferent, objective observers of the process. They did not want Mrs. Clinton charged.

In our imperfect world, most will understand the dilemma before FBI Director James Comey: Would it be more damaging for the country, FBI and personal reputation to actively intervene in the election by indicting Mrs. Clinton or to passively intervene in the election by giving her a pass?

A non-act is somehow easier to pass off than an act. Yet events of the last few days point to the absurdity of him clearing Mrs. Clinton when he still hadn’t seen 33,000 pieces of evidence. By definition, unless the FBI is full of remarkably unsuspicious cops, the emails that Mrs. Clinton and her aides deleted would seem the ones most likely to contain evidence of improper activity.

Mr. Comey perhaps failed also to foresee how the server issue would become entangled with the WikiLeaks theft of Clinton Foundation emails, contributing to a rather more multidimensional view of the back-scratching and buck-raking world the Clinton entourage inhabited.

He failed to foresee how the boodle of now-invigorated investigations would probably kill off the happy scenario in which a strong Mrs. Clinton can cut deals with Republicans to move the country ahead despite the ankle-biting of the Elizabeth Warren left.

What a mess. It pays to recall that the federal machinery trying so hard to give her a pass is the same federal machinery that writes millions of rules for the rest of us. It doesn’t give us a pass. The IRS can’t make sense of its own regulations yet expects us to abide by them under pain of criminal prosecution.

Mrs. Clinton’s every plan involves only complicating America’s life with more rules, more legal pitfalls for citizens, more mandates for business. The tax code is not complicated enough for her. ObamaCare is just a down payment on fixing health care with more regulation and government mandates.

Donald Trump (or any candidate) may not be a solution in himself, but an outsider at least can be an instrument to dislodge an elite and replace it, for a while, with an elite less habituated to using public power to favor and enrich itself. With Mrs. Clinton, as with Mr. Obama, a voter naturally struggles to understand what the overarching vision is. There isn’t one. They exist to deliver the wish-list of Democratic lobby groups for more power over the people of the United States. Period.

A few weeks ago Mrs. Clinton was the “safe hands” candidate. If she wins, it now appears hers will be an embattled and investigated presidency from day one. Moderates will flee. Republicans will find it hard to cooperate with her.

She will be forced back on the hard left of her party. The same who already are drawing up “blacklists” of potential appointees suspected of sympathy for the private sector. The same who hesitate least about using government power to attack enemies (see Exxon). The same who are most comfortable relying on administrative diktat to impose policies the public doesn’t support and never voted for.

Her party’s most ferocious warriors will run the Clinton administration because they’re the ones willing to be most unhinged in savaging her enemies. It might seem far-fetched now that President Obama, after Election Day, would try to clear President Clinton’s path by issuing a pardon for offenses committed while secretary of state, but crazier miscalculations have been made by the players in this drama.
Title: Trump's closing pitch
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2016, 08:08:33 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0e05Yz59og
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Holman Jenkins article
Post by: DougMacG on November 02, 2016, 09:05:55 AM
There are so many truths in that Holman Jenkins piece:


"Mrs. Clinton is a screw-up. And when a trait takes such trouble to announce itself, note must be taken."

"The emails that Mrs. Clinton and her aides deleted would seem the ones most likely to contain evidence of improper activity."

"The federal machinery trying so hard to give her a pass is the same federal machinery that writes millions of rules for the rest of us. It doesn’t give us a pass."


Yes, yes and yes.  The whole apparatus of Obamacare restructures America with a system of rules and punishment that applies to all the rest of us just as we watch them clearly operate outside the rules and without punishment.  Does the government ever give us a pass?

Does one have to be a political opponent to recognize and be offended by all this?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 02, 2016, 10:09:36 AM
Trump at 265 on 'No Toss up' map.  (Needs 270 to win and 269 to put it in the House of Representatives.)  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

He needs to win all of his plus steal ONE of hers, New Mexico or Colorado or Virginia or Pennsylvania or NH/Maine2, or Michigan or Wisconsin.  None of these are low hurdles to clear, and several of his are well within the margin of error.

America, this is not over until the fat (corrupt, socialist) lady sings.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I must admit, Trump sounds Presidential in the final stretch and Hillary sounds like an angry defendant.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Trump objectifies women but this (below) passes for acceptable, family entertainment from Hillary's invited guest (J-Lo)performing at her rally:
http://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2016/11/nintchdbpict000278550253-e1477824344470.jpg?w=763

Too explicit to post in our Presidential thread.  

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/11/bums-for-hillary.php
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 02, 2016, 01:48:00 PM
"canned food from my bunker?"

 :lol:

It may as well be.  If she wins the greatest meal in the world would not make up for the disaster.

Asked

"What is going to happen if Trump wins?"  Good question ......

It will be bad for the Democrats but with all the pending serious problems internally and externally in the world and the US  I can only say one thing - God help us!  He won't likely unite us.  And whatever he does he will be blamed for any less the outstanding outcomes or events.  God forbid an Earthquake in So Cal but say that happens,  Trump will be blamed for not being gung ho about the Climate Change agenda.

I would be willing to forfeit the meals for a small corner in your bunker.  I can pay rent.   :-D
Title: no surprise what LEFT will do when desperate
Post by: ccp on November 02, 2016, 02:39:58 PM
Here it comes.  This sounds like total BS:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-rape-accuser-lawsuits-230647
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2016, 06:36:47 PM
It is my understanding that her "coach" in all this came from the Jerry Springer show.
Title: Re: 2016 election, what if Trump and the Republicans win?
Post by: DDF on November 02, 2016, 10:05:00 PM
I have been silent on DDF's prediction of a Trump landslide only because of the failure of my own predictions, that Hillary won't run, won't win the nomination if she does run and won't win if nominated.  That bet seemed well hedged yet I already lost on 2 counts, owing significant meal tabs (canned food from my bunker?) to my friend ccp.

The analysis of this election outside of DDF has focused on what will come of the Republicans Party if they lose it all this year.  20 million new Democrat voters will change things forever.  So will the Court.  The pendulum won't swing back and forth again when we keep adding large weights to one side.

Trump - 63,500,000
Clinton - 55,640,000
Stein - 5,469,000 (counting her .5 million from 2012)
Johnson - 3,775,000 (counting the 1.27 mil he had from 2012)

Trump 52%

Hillary 44%

Needless to say, these aren't electoral college votes, nor are they swing state votes.

So let's cover the swing state votes now... I thought I had a while ago, but can't find it here.

Politico tabulated polls in what they view to be 11 swing states: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states

Clinton winning - NV, CO, WI, MI, NH, PA, VA, and NC or 93 electoral votes
Trump winning - Florida, Ohio, and Iowa or 53 electoral votes

****Just going to say it now.... Politico, a known Clinton hack job is smoking crack****



270toWin, has Clinton ahead 258 to Trump's 157 as of this writing (the owner does a good job at hiding his party affiliation, but his wife donates to the Left). http://www.270towin.com/maps/2016-election-toss-up-states

Their appraisal?

Blue States: WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, MN, IL, MI, NY, PA, VA, VT, HI, MD, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MA, DC, and 3/4's of ME = 258 (20.75 states + DC)

Red States: ID, MT, WY, SD, ND, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, WV, SC, AK, and 4/5's of NE = 157 (19.8 states)

Split States: NV, UT, AZ, WI, IA, OH, NC, GA, FL, NH, 1/5 of NE, and 1/4 of ME = 123 (10.45 states)



Also, to be fair, we should include 538's by Nate Silver (also a liberal hack - I've posted evidence about him and 270 previously)
has called it:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Clinton - 295
Trump - 241

Broken down accordingly:

Blue States - WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, ME, NH, VT, NY, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, PA, VA, HI, NC & DC (24 states + DC)(NV & NC to Clinton by  <1%)

Red States - ID, UT, AZ, AK, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, IA, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, IN, KY, TN, GA, SC, WV, OH, & FL (26 states)(FL to Trump by 1.6%)


Glaring Defects:

Arizona, Iowa and Utah - 538 shows them thoroughly red. 270 shows them split, so doesn't count them against Trump.

Nebraska and Maine - the split states, 538 gives one to each, 270 almost does the same, favoring Clinton by 1 vote from Maine.

Ohio - 270 counts it as a split, 538 has it going thoroughly red.

NC - 538 has it going blue by .2%, 270 doesn't factor it, Politico says Clinton barely wins it.

Florida - Politico and 538 give it to Trump. 270 doesn't factor it.

Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado - all three give them to Clinton, and by several points.



Where they're wrong:

The electoral college, will go like this (assuming GM didn't call the voter fraud correctly - I myself am an ID and paper ballot kind of guy, but I'll stand by this):

Red States: AK, UT, NV, AZ, ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, MO, AR, LA, AL, MS, IN, OH, TN, KY, WV, GA, SC, FL, NC, MI, WI, PA, and 1/2 of Maine. (31 states, each devoid of people that need safe spaces).

I also think that NH and CO stand a good chance of going Trump's way as well.

So, I'm calling Trump with at least 311 electoral votes, knowing full well.... that Clinton has a supporter population between L.A., NYC, Chicago, and Seattle (80 million people between the four states - a major portion of her voting age supporters, and the FULL BULK of her hispanic voters that aren't in Texas), and Trump is STILL going to smash her in the electoral college and popular vote.


To recap:

Trump 52%

Hillary 44%

Trump with a minimum of 311 electoral votes.

If I'm wrong, I'll let you hit me at a gathering.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 02, 2016, 10:16:44 PM
After this evening's news all bets are off!!!  :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 02, 2016, 10:21:53 PM
After this evening's news all bets are off!!!  :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

PGC, of any student you've ever had, few, if any, like to wager more than I do.

How about them Cubs?? Wow!!!

Edit: I used to live down the street from Wrigley Field, and I never even imagined.... wow.
Title: "She’s Dishonest, But So Are You"
Post by: ccp on November 03, 2016, 11:50:12 AM
No question you are dishonest Pharrell and everyone else in the music industry which is a criminal organization similar to the Hillary mob.   (you f'n lyin prick who does not write your lyrics):

http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2016/11/03/pharrell-williams-begs-women-vote-dishonest-hillary/
Title: remember the correspondents dinner from 2011?
Post by: ccp on November 04, 2016, 02:59:32 PM
It is hard to believe it has been over 5 yrs ago but this is it.

Read this and feel ready to send the worst smart ass President a big message on Tuesday:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/05/01/president-s-speech-white-house-correspondents-dinner
Title: Blacks voting for Trump?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 06, 2016, 08:53:24 AM
https://www.facebook.com/notes/the-2016-committee/the-surprising-realignment-of-african-american-voters/1290094361052791
Title: Macedonia a hub for phony pro Trump messages
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 06, 2016, 11:32:55 AM
https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump-misinfo?utm_term=.kuyddBeon#.ckmllzb3B
Title: 60,000 felons in VA pardoned to vote
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 06, 2016, 11:47:30 AM
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/06/exclusive-virginia-gov-pardons-60000-felons-enough-to-swing-election/?utm_campaign=thedcmainpage&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social
Title: Re: 60,000 felons in VA pardoned to vote
Post by: G M on November 06, 2016, 01:12:09 PM
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/06/exclusive-virginia-gov-pardons-60000-felons-enough-to-swing-election/?utm_campaign=thedcmainpage&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social

Understand that there are no limits to what they will do to drag Hillary's evil carcass over the finish line. No limits.
Title: Re: 60,000 felons in VA pardoned to vote
Post by: DDF on November 06, 2016, 03:33:39 PM
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/06/exclusive-virginia-gov-pardons-60000-felons-enough-to-swing-election/?utm_campaign=thedcmainpage&utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social

Understand that there are no limits to what they will do to drag Hillary's evil carcass over the finish line. No limits.

We crossed that finish line in 2008. We are all about to be playing an entirely different game soon.

This gentleman really has an excellent take on all of this.

https://www.facebook.com/bill.whittle/videos/10154934274357454/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED
Title: 2016 Election Predictions
Post by: DougMacG on November 07, 2016, 07:57:44 AM
DDF made the most bold prediction calling it Trump in a landslide long before he was closing the gap.  I will post Wed that 'DDF was Right' if Trump wins the popular vote by anything that rounds to 3 points or more and he wins the electoral count.

My predictions, subject to update with so much time left between now and tomorrow...

1.  Clinton by 1% popular vote and by at least a state or two electorally.   (

2. Republicans hold the Senate 51-49.  If I am wrong by one here, the tie goes to the winner of the White House.

3.  Republicans hold the House, lose 10 seats but keep a solid majority.


In the early returns, if Virginia is near even instead of Clinton up by 6 as the polls suggest, this race turns on its ear.  If Trump wins Pennsylvania, start the math over.  If Trump wins Indiana by way more than 11, this race is different than predicted.  But if Clinton wins Florida, it's over.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential predictions PP, RCP
Post by: DougMacG on November 07, 2016, 03:45:55 PM
Our Pat (surprisingly) thinks the polls are wrong and it will be Trump in a landslide.
https://www.hotgas.net/2016/11/final-election-predictions/
------------------------------------------------------------------------

RCP Average is currently Clinton +2.9%   Assuming a 2-3 point under-count, this is going to be close and the Republican is the underdog.  Prove them wrong! 

There are a number of ways they can be wrong. 

1. People vote differently in the privacy of the polling booth than they tell pollsters.  Each percent of that has a 2 point swing.  A few Hispanics who already have jobs, citizenship and good lives might fall into into this group, not wanting to say they support Trump.
2. Turnout models turn out false.  Blacks aren't excited about Hillary.  Women aren't excited.  The young aren't excited. 
3. Polling methods have worsened since people abandoned home phones.
4. Polling firms tweak their results to fall in line with other polls.

Republicans have been winning non-Presidential year elections and state races.  Perhaps this election year will have more in common with those years.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential predictions PP, RCP
Post by: G M on November 07, 2016, 05:41:30 PM
There will be an epic level of dead and illegal alien voters turning out this year, oh and outright fraud as well.



Our Pat (surprisingly) thinks the polls are wrong and it will be Trump in a landslide.
https://www.hotgas.net/2016/11/final-election-predictions/
------------------------------------------------------------------------

RCP Average is currently Clinton +2.9%   Assuming a 2-3 point under-count, this is going to be close and the Republican is the underdog.  Prove them wrong! 

There are a number of ways they can be wrong. 

1. People vote differently in the privacy of the polling booth than they tell pollsters.  Each percent of that has a 2 point swing.  A few Hispanics who already have jobs, citizenship and good lives might fall into into this group, not wanting to say they support Trump.
2. Turnout models turn out false.  Blacks aren't excited about Hillary.  Women aren't excited.  The young aren't excited. 
3. Polling methods have worsened since people abandoned home phones.
4. Polling firms tweak their results to fall in line with other polls.

Republicans have been winning non-Presidential year elections and state races.  Perhaps this election year will have more in common with those years.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 07, 2016, 05:43:00 PM
"There will be an epic level of dead and illegal alien voters turning out this year, oh and outright fraud as well."

GM

Do you know why zombies are all Democrats.....

see next post to find out.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 07, 2016, 05:51:38 PM
Hillary promised them *free* cemetery care - forever.   Paid for by the "one percent" who have not paid their fair share   :wink:.  (but that includes everyone else who pays taxes )

Every stiff deserves free cemetery care.  (hey just think - the Clinton crime family  could use those funds to pay off their cronies who will all flock to get into the cemetery business).

You know , Tony, Roger, Chelsea , and her hedge fund beau.
Give McAucllife some cemetery stock options membership to the Board for another 300 K per year for another no show graft,  and Podestsa could be a director also but he is worth 400 K.

Cheryl Mills can also be on the board.

Huma can get a 30th full time job while working as side kick to Hildabeast at the WH and getting all the government benefits.
I assume she will ge a pension for which we will all be paying for ever.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - Election Day
Post by: DougMacG on November 08, 2016, 09:10:30 AM
I voted.  Please vote and do everything else you can to make a difference today.   At least 15 states are close (list below) and will decide this election and the future (or end) of this nation.   Hillary polls above 50% in none of these states, nor in any national poll.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

RCP final with no tossups has Trump at 266, 4 electoral votes short with the 4 tossup votes in NH scored for Clinton.  Some of those in the Trump column are vulnerable and some states where Clinton's lead is thin are winnable.  Trump must hold where he leads, FL and NC especially.   Then a win in NH, PA, CO, NM, MI or VA could put him over the top.

Somehow I have the feeling this is all going to turn against us today, toward Hillary and the people who want to rule us rather than let us live mostly in freedom.  (Please don't let that happen!)

Hillary and the Dems have the lists of all Americans likely to vote liberal sorted by demographic group and government benefit programs.  They have been out contacting door to door in person with paid workers to get out their vote.  (Our side has virtually none of that, relying on individuals to read through the distorted news and make the right choice.)  Their best groups include felons, illegals, people dependent on government programs and people most susceptible to the race and class warfare promise.  

All we can do at this point is reach out one by one and try to make the smallest of differences.

This is the moment. Don't wish later that you had done more now.  If you agree this election is crucial, then think of everyone like minded you know and check in with them today, now.  Who do you know in one of the following places that might appreciate having someone they know contact them about how important their vote is?

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Arizona
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Virginia
Wisconsin
Georgia

All of these states matter!

A short time ago I watched Al Franken become the 60th liberal vote in the Senate enabling a historic takeover by big government.  They did that with a margin (312 questionable votes) that could have been overcome with just a little more effort from all the people opposed to that agenda and philosophy.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential predictions, Nate Silver, 538, Drudge
Post by: DougMacG on November 08, 2016, 01:32:17 PM
Nate Silver's predicts 70% chance of Clinton victory, spends his final blog post writing about unprecedented uncertainty.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

Clinton up by 3.  Error of 3% is "common".  If it moves 3 points, that easily could change the outcome.  Trump polls better in swing states than nationally.  Swing states contain more swing voters.  (Go figure.)  Error of 6-10% also possible - either way.  More undecideds than ever, could break one way (or the other) rather than down the middle.  More third party supporters than usual; some will tend to move to their binary choice.  12% of the vote unknown by poll takers even if they are right on the rest.

Polling errors are correlated across states, not random.

Polls understated 2015 UK conservative victory by 6 points.
Republicans beat the polls in 2014 by 3-4 points.
Polls missed Brexit 2016 by 4%.
Polls missed Reagan's win in 1980 by 8 points.
--------------------------
Drudge at this hour:

HILLARY +PA
TRUMP +AZ, GA, IA, NC, OH
COLORADO SHOWDOWN
FLORIDA SHOWDOWN
MICHIGAN SHOWDOWN
NEVADA SHOWDOWN


ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY EVENING VOTERS
--------------------------------------------------------------

Did YOU vote?
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: G M on November 08, 2016, 10:48:38 PM
I have never been so happy to be wrong. Props to DDF for calling it.

This really feels like getting a pardon by the governor a minute before execution.

I honestly pray Trump does a good job. God really loves this country despite our best efforts.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 08, 2016, 11:09:52 PM
I have never been so happy to be wrong. Props to DDF for calling it.

This really feels like getting a pardon by the governor a minute before execution.

I honestly pray Trump does a good job. God really loves this country despite our best efforts.

I miscalled a couple of States.... I'll take the hit for not being completely correct because I'm so happy it isn't her. Tally everything up tomorrow. See what I missed. I already know I missed the popular vote margin.

Cheers GM.... now for term limits.

Ps.... I hope Trump does a good job too. I'm not yet sure of that.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 08, 2016, 11:31:30 PM
Here is the real reason the Empress Dowager appears to have lost:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/madonna-withdraws-oral-sex-promise-hillary-voters-article-1.2864602
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential - DDF was Right! )
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2016, 06:40:39 AM
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

276 Electoral Votes with perhaps 30 more coming from Alaska and close races in Michigan and Arizona making it 307-232.

Final tallies aside, Trump won a close election.  Also Republicans won huge Senate races, held the Senate and the House, which all effects at least the start of the Trump administration. 

The consensus of the polls was wrong.  This election was a tie in the popular vote, Clinton up by a hair, but Trump won Iowa by 10, Ohio by 8 and Wisconsin by 1, where the polls had him down by 6.

Clinton won Virginia roughly by the number of felons and illegals voting and she won Minnesota roughly by the number of peaceful, unvetted Somalis that have settled here.  She won Colorado and New Mexico with margins that come from population influxes there too. 

The Obama-Clinton (and Bush) years are coming to an end.  A new chapter is beginning.  God Bless America.

Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ppulatie on November 09, 2016, 06:59:08 AM
   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2016, 07:13:39 AM
   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   

Yes you did!   )

And Rubio won in Trump's most important swing state -  with 8 times the margin.  This didn't have to be so hard!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Maine District goes to Trump
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2016, 09:54:47 AM
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/11/08/mainers-take-matters-into-their-own-hands-after-bitter-presidential-campaign/

Maine splits its electoral votes for the first time. 

Michigan also called for Trump, thin margin.  Hillary conceded.  Updating electoral count: 308-231. (?)   

Hillary still leads the popular vote by 0.2% with many votes left to count.  Let's hope that doesn't become a footnote to this historic event.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 09, 2016, 10:36:55 AM
I nailed every state except for one, and I was still wrong.

I have seen immigrant after immigrant supporting the Left.

Even with the amount of fraud, illegal voters, etc., that could have taken place, the overwhelming support of who the people allowed into the country support, is of much concern.

I wish I had been correct in the popular vote. Unfortunately, on this component of it, I was dead wrong. I had Trump figured for 8 points. He lost the popular by .249%

That's a problem.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 09, 2016, 11:08:28 AM
DDF and PP and Michael Moore - congratulations on calling it.   What does Nate Silver know?

Amazing he still won with everything against him.

I think this loss (Hillary losing the election)  cancels out the my wins (Hillary running for President, winning the primary and being the DNC nominee) with DougMacG!    I won't need bunker food after all.    :-D

A champaign toast to all !


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 09, 2016, 11:47:13 AM
DDF and PP and Michael Moore - congratulations on calling it.   What does Nate Silver know?

Amazing he still won with everything against him.

I think this loss (Hillary losing the election)  cancels out the my wins (Hillary running for President, winning the primary and being the DNC nominee) with DougMacG!    I won't need bunker food after all.    :-D

A champaign toast to all !




Everyone here has great teachers. Many are surprised when I tell them what I learn from here, from you all. More than anything, an influx of different mindsets, sources, and critical thinking.

The compliment goes to people here. This is great place to learn.

Now.... just hoping he does his job. Without law... we're all back in tribal warfare in an immediate sense.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 09, 2016, 11:50:28 AM
   I TOLD YOU SO!!!   

I don't know where the high five button is.... but that's what the sentiment is.

I'm still puzzled by the amount of suport Clinton got in the popular vote. I will be examining that heavily.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 09, 2016, 01:45:05 PM
This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on November 09, 2016, 01:59:44 PM
"This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential."

It is all academic now but I wonder if Biden could have beaten Trump.  While he is the iteration of Obama he doesn't carry her negatives ( with most Americans - not me).

Of course the Left will continue the racist sexist xenophobic etc mantra. 

Trump will have a really tough time.   
Title: Miley Cyrus
Post by: ccp on November 09, 2016, 02:14:41 PM
Agree with Carly Hoilman.   Surprising!  Sobering.  Hope Trump can win over some of the reasonable people on the LEFT:

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/11/miley-cyrus-reaction-to-trumps-election-was-surprisingly-refreshing

Maybe the LEFt can now appreciate this country now and stop bashing us and it!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 09, 2016, 03:32:08 PM
This should have been a landslide for us.  Trump made it very hard for many of our fellow Americans to see him as presidential.

I think you're right and that is the crux of it.
Title: George Washington
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 09, 2016, 04:24:22 PM
The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.

George Washington
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on November 09, 2016, 06:35:26 PM
After alleged panic overnight, the Dow closed at a record high today on the news of the Trump election.  Or was there some other news...

The world didn't end as predicted.
Title: Repudiation
Post by: G M on November 09, 2016, 08:18:03 PM
http://christianmerc.blogspot.com/2016/11/repudiation.html

 Repudiation

Before the media and the leftists figure out how to make the Trump victory, a victory for them through all the traditional means, such as describing how the Trump victory was really a dying last gasp of white racism; or how Trump fed all of the unemployed a false narrative about jobs aplenty; or that the nation under Obama has made Trump's desires inaccessible, let me explain what the Trump victory meant.


It meant that we want a true nation, with borders and to decide who comes in, what they want to do here and how they intend to embrace the formula, which has made this nation successful over the past two hundred plus years. It meant that the majority of us do not want to invest billions of tax dollars into the "green" industry which is only "green" because it takes money from the many and gives to Silicon Valley hucksters. It meant that the majority of us do not agree with government by phone and pen and want and expect our representatives to vote against budget-busting government giveaways to organizations dedicated to the destruction of the middle-class. It meant that the majority of us do not want the government to be at war with its citizens and taxpayers. It meant that the majority of us do not want the Attorney General's office to obstruct justice. It meant that the majority of us do not want Black Lives Matter to have an adjunct office in the Attorney General's office. It means we like the Second Amendment and intend to deny Obama's Supreme Court the opportunity to do more damage to it than they already have.


In essence, the Trump victory simply means that the average American is tired of being belittled, ignored and trampled on by the various special interest groups all claiming that they have somehow been disadvantaged by a system that is based on merit.


Obama's vision of this nation is flawed, but by sheer bully tactics it got its way for eight years, simply because the people of this nation did not want to hold Obama, or his cronies accountable for his inability to govern a diverse people. Instead, they let the first black president do as he pleased, but now recognize Trump as a means of "draining the swamp" of politicians that take advantage of those good intentions. Reparations? We just paid it for eight years. Now, we are even and we want a nation of accountability and fairness to return. We want to return to a nation of people who work hard and need jobs and don't want to be on the government dole. Obama's constituency of "the needy" did not show up for him, because he was not on the ballot and the good people of this nation had absolved themselves of their sins by tolerating his brand of government corruption. Obamacare? Tried it and didn't like it. Open borders? Tried it and didn't like it. Importing terrorists? Tried it and didn't like it. Giving Iran billions of dollars to foster and encourage worldwide terrorism? Tried it and didn't like it.


The Trump victory is not a repudiation of blackness or brownness or Islam. It is a repudiation of self-annihilation through embracement of those qualities alone. Obama viewed blackness and brownness and Islam as a means of destroying whiteness and Christianness. Trump's victory is a repudiation of that method of reconstructing the nation.


The United States of America is an open society, welcoming of any shade of color or religious fervor, but it is expected that entrance to the bounty of America comes with a corresponding respect for the values and methods by which, for over two hundred years, it has built the society capable of that bounty. It is not a nation to be plundered by those who enter, but bolstered by those who enter and as the creators of the bounty (black, white, brown and whatever other color is associated with people) we have the right and the obligation to protect it by choosing those who enter for their potential ability to build upon that which has been laid as a foundation.


Obama's method of governance was to destroy that which made this nation wealthy and prosperous by allowing the plunderers special access to the bounty. Repudiation of that method of governance is what a Trump victory meant.
Title: We Stopped Hillary
Post by: G M on November 10, 2016, 03:34:51 PM
http://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2016/11/10/we-stopped-hillary-n2243594

We Stopped Hillary
Kurt Schlichter

Posted: Nov 10, 2016 12:01 AM


Well, that could have gone a lot worse.

In the wake of Hillary’s massive, unequivocal, humiliating rejection, I was going to write this column on the critical need for us conservatives to have a big group hug and restore the shattered bonds that should unite us, whether #NeverTrump, #NeverHillary or #IHateEveryone. But that can wait. Right now, I have some savoring to do. Let’s see, we have the executive branch, the legislative branch and we’ll be taking back the judicial branch. The mainstream media is in a state of shock. Liberals are having fits. And the ocean is still rising, as one of my Twitter followers observed, only it’s because of liberal tears.

Tuesday was a good day for everything awesome in America except for my book series. Then again, maybe not. With the #NotMyPresident hashtag happening among devastated millennials who, for the first time in their bubble-wrapped lives got told “No,” maybe they’ll be the ones demanding succession from that hateful, racists, sexist, imperialist, transphobic, and racist big red blob between the liberal cities called “America.”

Don’t worry, libs. California still seems eager to buck the trend and stick with stupid. You can all come out here to slake your thirst for socialist failure, slowly paying off that gender studies degree getting me my dry cleaning as part of your career doing Task Rabbit gigs.


Or, maybe, just maybe, someday you’ll be able to get a decent job that will let you support a family like your parents (or, really, their parents) had. But you’ll have to forgo the palm trees and random Amy Schumer sightings in Santa Monica.

I could take this opportunity to extend my hand to my liberal co-citizens and the non-citizens they wanted to just hand the gift of citizenship in return for the implicit promise to vote for whichever corrupt leftist the Democrats decided to wheel out on a Hannibal Lector handcart. But no. That can wait too – for now, the only thing I’m extending is my middle finger.

You built this. Now suck on it.

You jerks thought we normals were terrible and stupid when you thought of us at all. How do you like us now? Are you worried that an unfriendly executive branch might unleash its dogs at the, say, IRS upon you? That bureaucrats might destroy the entire industry that you work in, that supports your family, to satisfy the whims of the regime’s ideology? That the government is heading toward the time when it might send armed federal agents to your house to arrest you for exercising your constitutional rights?

Welcome to the last eight years as a normal.

Not so big on unlimited executive power anymore, are you? Seeing how maybe those Dead White Cis-Het Males with funny wigs back in olden times might have had a point?

Well, you need to do a little sweating, a little worrying. Fear is the teacher, and class is in session. Maybe you’ll learn something. Maybe you’ll stand up for what’s right the next time your side is honored with America’s steering wheel and some leftist serpent starts hissing that you should throw all that due process and Bill of Rights stuff out the window in the name of progressive expedience.

How’s it feel with the Doc Marten on the other foot?

But I doubt you’ll learn. You’re kind of dumb, and you tend to sniff along behind aspiring fascists. So we’ll still keep buying guns and ammo at record rates, thank you very much, because we doubt you’ll learn anything about the rule of law from your time wondering if you can rely on it.

Heck, if we had any money after eight years of that creased-pants joke’s misrule, we’d use the stock market panic dip as a buying opportunity for loading up on otherwise skyrocketing gun company stocks. Oh, and also shares of whoever makes Crown Royal– I hear that’s Hillary’s booze of choice.

There’s more good news. For at least the next four years we’ll see a renewed interest in that quaint concept called “checks and balances.” Watch for Donald Trump – excuse me, President Donald Trump – to be the most checked and balanced chief exec ever. And that’s terrific.

Oh, and the media will re-discover curiosity about governmental misconduct and inefficiency again – once the collective weeping ends. Watching their faces collapse like the Nazis in Raiders of the Lost Ark when President-elect Donald Trump crossed 270 was one of the great moments of my life. Their collective pain is our collective joy. And they have a long time and a lot of hard work ahead if they hope to ever regain our trust – but, of course, I have zero confidence that they even understand how completely they have destroyed their own credibility. A few professional journalists knew what was coming – Salena Zito saw what was happening because she left the comfortable cities and went out to actually talk to the people who just shocked the world. Any media outlet interested in actually covering America should swoop her up.

Back to savoring.

We rejected corruption. We rejected the elites who hold us in contempt. We rejected the political correctness and its posse of lies that was designed to silence us, to make us kneel, bow and obey. We stopped politely asking for respect – we took it. And there’s nothing you can do about it.

We are the majority – at least of electoral votes, suckers – and we are awake. This election shows that we are no longer going to be silent.

Yeah, that could have gone a lot worse.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 10, 2016, 08:06:06 PM
As this thread presumably winds down, I would like to thank one and all for a fine job.  I like to think that perhaps our efforts here contributed in some small way to the outcome.

Well done gentlemen!

God bless America!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DDF on November 11, 2016, 05:46:55 AM
As this thread presumably winds down, I would like to thank one and all for a fine job.  I like to think that perhaps our efforts here contributed in some small way to the outcome.

Well done gentlemen!

God bless America!

Indeed sir. You as well.
Title: VDH: Why Trump Won
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 13, 2016, 03:38:35 PM
http://www.hoover.org/research/why-trump-won
Title: "You're fuct!"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on November 13, 2016, 07:56:19 PM
http://www.daybydaycartoon.com/comic/fucked/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DayByDayCartoon+%28Day+by+Day+Cartoon+by+Chris+Muir%29
Title: Zombie Hillary
Post by: Crafty_Dog on December 01, 2016, 04:50:56 PM
http://www.westernjournalism.com/clinton-campaign-seeks-volunteers-help-voter-recount-effort/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=PostUp&utm_campaign=WJDailyEmail&utm_content=2016-12-01
Title: The Clinton Archipelago
Post by: G M on December 18, 2016, 01:37:36 PM
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/252219/

Her appeal became more selective. Now, if we could remove the illegal alien and dead votes from the map...
Title: The Terrifying Aftermath of Hillary’s Election Victory
Post by: G M on December 19, 2016, 07:33:39 AM
The Terrifying Aftermath of Hillary’s Election Victory
Kurt Schlichter

Posted: Dec 19, 2016 12:01 AM


In the midst of our joyous celebrations, and as we savor the delicious schadenfreude left in the wake of Hillary’s humiliating rejection by normal Americans, it’s easy to forget that there is a much darker timeline where things could have gone very differently . . . (Hat Tip: John L. Pitts; Mickey White)

The first few weeks after President-elect Clinton won the election set the tone for what she expected would be the next eight years, and that tone was neither gracious nor inclusive. She wasted no time in flaunting her 306 electoral votes and the Democrats’ 52 seat Senate majority. “America has decisively rejected the hate embodied by Donald Trump and his deplorable supporters,” Hillary bellowed, as she gripped the podium unsteadily, still woozy from her 80 proof election night “party.”

She went on: “I have a massive mandate to impose fundamental change and usher in a new America! And let me warn those who would seek to stop us – you do so at your peril!”

Her supporters were even less restrained. As Joan Walsh of Salon crowed: “The message to backward, uneducated, angry cis white males in Jesusland is that you’re not needed and you’re not wanted. You don’t even get in the room, much less a seat at the table!”

Complaints by Trump supporters of voting irregularities in places like Detroit were dismissed by Clinton as “ridiculous whining by losers. All these claims of voter fraud, foreign influence and ‘fake news’ are just pathetic excuses by the side the voters rejected.” She called the complaints of a “rigged election,” the pleas to the electors, and the recounts “attacks on our Constitution’s democracy (sic) and the kind of thing only a bitter, rejected failure would engage in. The losing candidate ought to be embarrassed by this pathetic performance.” The media eagerly joined in savaging anyone who did not absolutely and unequivocally accept the legitimacy of the new President-elect.


Incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was delighted with the opportunities presented by Democrats holding all three branches of government. “With her overwhelming mandate, the Republicans need to understand that their obstructionism won’t be tolerated. The Reid Rule was an important reform that allows a President to have his, her, or xer’s nominees confirmed despite a filibuster. We will certainly use it to confirm President Clinton’s Supreme Court nominee, and to pass critical legislation like single payer. The filibuster is outmoded and it should never, ever, under any circumstances, be used to obstruct a new president from making appointments and pushing through key priorities!”

Incoming House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi remarked that, “The House is ready to work with the new President to ensure the values of enlightened places like Washington and San Francisco will no longer be obstructed by the cis-het male troglodytes who refuse to acknowledge their legacy of evil. This is why my first act will be to introduce the National Restroom Equality Act to ensure that backwards people can no longer avoid confronting the reality of gender fluidity when going to the bathroom.”

She added, “And now that Elizabeth Warren is heading to the Supreme Court, the gun nuts are in for a rude awakening. We are no longer going to tolerate the epidemic of mass murders committed by conservative Christian NRA members. I will be introducing legislation to outlaw dangerous weapons like automatic assault shooting rifles and killer pistol guns that fire 100 bullets a second with their 200 bullet clips.” Gun sales hit five million in November 2016 as the New York Times howled that “Gun confiscation is a moral necessity!”

Hillary even had some Republican support. “I just adore Ms. Clinton and she can count on my loyalty and help,” said a smiling Lindsay Graham. “The key to a successful Republican opposition is cooperation and flexibility in our positions. I’m particularly excited about my new comprehensive immigration reform bill to bring these poor, innocent undocumented workers out of the shadows and into the voting booth!”

Bernie Sanders, asked about legislative priorities in the new Senate, explained, “I think I have lost my shoe. It’s a brown shoe and I thought it was on my foot, but it seems to be gone and I think I have lost my shoe. Do you have my shoe?”

Hillary announced an ambitious agenda for her first 100 days. There was the new law designed to circumvent Citizen’s United; Hillary fully expected her 5-4 liberal Supreme Court to uphold the provision imposing a two-year prison sentence on those making movies critical of progressive politicians. Similarly, Hillary was confident that the new high court would find another exception to the First Amendment to uphold the “Stop Hate Speech Act.” In conjunction with her “Fairness Doctrine” executive order, it promised to eliminate the unregulated cacophony of disruptive voices on radio, cable and on the internet in favor of a reasonable, gatekept consensus. It would also prevent people from writing books that spread dissent.

Then there was the fracking and oil drilling ban; the Saudis who had helped fund her campaign were delighted that America would turn its back on its hard-won energy independence. Noting that this would devastate Texas and other red states, John Podesta wrote, “That will show those yokels they best get in the Clinton Caboose next time.” This comment was revealed in an email obtained by a precocious 16 year-old from Idaho who got access to Podesta’s new AOL account by tricking him into hitting a link in a phishing email with the subject line “What Mary Ann From Gilligan’s Island Looks Like Now Will Take Your Breath Away!”

Hillary got busy making other key appointments. The EPA was filled with climate change “realists” who had faithfully updated their dire predictions of doom each year as the previous year’s dire predictions of doom failed to come true. The new IRS commissioner promised to continue to deny tax-exempt status to troublesome dissidents, and to go further and withdraw the tax deductions from churches and synagogues that refused to sanctify gay marriage. Mosques, however, got a pass.

Hillary’s immigration czar, one of the six “trans, questioning and/or genderfreak” individuals she promised to appoint to key Administration jobs, was very concerned about there being far too few Muslims in America. Xe promised to increase immigration from the Middle East ten-fold. Coincidentally, exit polls had showed that Muslims voted 80% Democrat. As for other immigration enforcement, Hillary ordered ICE to “stand down” and stop all deportations: “The idea that this country can deny citizenship-challenged people their right to be here is part of America’s shameful racist legacy!”

Hillary also announced that she had named Bill Clinton ambassador to Papua-New Guinea.

The media was excited too. “This just reaffirms our relevance,” said Brian Stetler of CNN. “And it shows how important it is for the media to reject so-called objectivity and embrace a new truth-telling style of journalism where we explain things to those citizens who do not live in large, coastal cities and are therefore not wise enough to understand the world without our patient guidance.” Thomas Freidman urged that “We need to move beyond the so-called concern for the ‘rights’ of our ignorant, bigoted conservative minority and move forward aggressively with progressive change, like our friends in China would.” A congratulatory call to Hillary by the President of Taiwan was sent to voicemail.

In a New York Times interview headlined “President Clinton’s Grace and Poise Shines a Bright Light of Justice Upon an Ecstatic Nation,” Hillary talked about those Americans who failed the moral test of supporting her: “The sad fact is that many millions of Americans are sexist, racist, homophobic, Islamophobia, transphobic, homophobic, and … wait, did I already say ‘homophobic?’ I did? Okay, then cut out that second ‘homophobic.’” The Times complied.

She continued: “We will reward our friends and punish our enemies – domestically. I will govern for the benefit of the people who make up the future, not the irredeemable people who make up the past. They need to understand that they are at the back of the line now, that they must adapt for the good of the whole and accept their new status. This means changing their notions of religion, giving up their guns, and realizing that their so-called rights are subject to the needs of the many. They lost, we won, and now they must stop talking and start listening.”

But the Other Americans, as the media began calling them, weren’t ready to do that. On the 101st day after her inauguration, Governor Greg Abbot called the White House to request a meeting with the new President about “an important subject.” White House Chief of Staff Huma Abedin directed that no one return his call. “Texas can wait,” she said, provoking a raucous chorus of laughter among the Ivy League grads staffing the West Wing.

However, Texas and the other red states couldn’t wait. And when they announced their intention to #RedExit the United States, Hillary was furious. But with all the guns in the red states, and most of the military being from them as well, there was little she could do other than shriek and hit the Crown Royal harder than usual.

She decided to seize the initiative, telling the nation, “We’re kicking them out!” But that plan went poorly as well. So when she finally left office, the country split apart and the economic crisis deepening as the blue states discovered that climate change karma can’t generate power and that you can’t eat diversity, Hillary wondered if she had been wrong in starting her term with a ruthless attack on nearly half the population. That thought passed quickly. “No, it’s the fault of those racists and sexists. Yeah, that’s it. It was all the racists’ and sexists’ fault. And probably the Russians.”

But, of course, the timeline didn’t go that way, did it?
Title: Hillary bribed six Republicans?!?
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 03, 2017, 10:00:22 AM
http://yournewswire.com/wikileaks-clinton-bribed-6-republicans/
Title: 2016 Presidential, Minnesota led the nation in turnout, turned right
Post by: DougMacG on March 21, 2017, 11:18:12 AM
Double checking final numbers election night.

"Conventional Wisdom" is that Democrats win when they turnout their voters and Republicans win in the off years, in bad weather and when turnout is down.

All the states that typically have the highest turnout turned distinctly rightward in 2016:
Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa.
http://247wallst.com/special-report/2016/10/17/states-with-the-highest-voter-turnout/2/?utm_source=huffingtonpost.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=pubexchange_article

Minnesota led the nation in turnout, 2016
http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/29/minnesotas-no-1-in-voting-again/

Minnesota was recently considered also the 'bluest' state in the nation, home of Walter Mondale, Hubert Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Paul Wellstone, Amy Klobuchare, Al Franken, Keith Ellison, and the only state Reagan never won.

Barack Obama won MN with 54% of the vote in 2008 and won reelection there in 2012 with 53%.

Hillary Clinton won Minnesota in 2016 with 46% to Trump's 45%, a 7 point fall from Obama's worst result. 

If you combine the other right leaning candidates vote percentages of Libertarian Gary Johnson and conservative alternative candidate Evan McMullen with Trump's total, 53% chose Trump or one of these over Hillary Clinton.

Trump won 78 out of 87 counties in Minnesota.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/minnesota

Adding salt to local leftists wounds, MN Republicans held the state House and took the State Senate in 2016. 

Yet the remaining elected Democrats, the Governor, two US Senators and 5 out of 8 House members, carry on with their pure partisanship in denial of this recent turn of events.


Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on March 21, 2017, 11:57:15 AM
"If you combine the other right leaning candidates vote percentages of Libertarian Gary Johnson and conservative alternative candidate Evan McMullen with Trump's total, 53% chose Trump or one of these over Hillary Clinton."

This raises the possibility of a potential interesting talking point:

If we assign the third party votes to the probable Rep/Dem candidate (e.g. Green to Hillary, Libertarian to Trump, etc) who would have won the popular vote?

Title: Let us pause to gloat a moment
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 12, 2017, 11:32:01 AM
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/328405-clinton-campaign-plagued-by-bickering
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: ccp on April 12, 2017, 01:29:42 PM
I only heard a few minute of Rush today and he was saying it is an excellent read!   :-D
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: DougMacG on April 12, 2017, 03:18:08 PM
I was wondering when we would see her entourage turn against her.  They have been able to use their power to keep people in line for a quarter of a century.  With the closing of the fake charity, they are just figuring out that power is gone - forever.  That leaves staff with nothing but their stories to sell.

Easy to believe they were denying responsibility for failure then; they still deny it now.  It was Bill and Hillary who made the private server decision.  People were supposed to move on, away from the controversy, right while she was still hiding and stalling on the release of documents under subpoena, including documents with all kinds of damning content.

Good riddance Clintons.

From the article:  "...Hillary’s talented and accomplished team of professionals and loyalists simply took it."

Huma, Podesta, et al, a "talented and accomplished team of professionals"?!  Good God.
Title: Taibbi on "Shattered"
Post by: Crafty_Dog on April 20, 2017, 09:05:10 PM
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-on-the-new-book-that-brutalizes-the-clinton-campaign-w477978
Title: 2016 Presidential, Mexico will pay for the wall was a stupid thing to say
Post by: DougMacG on May 01, 2017, 10:14:16 AM
Trump had 18 months to think about how he will do this as he was promising it and has had 100 days to parse what he said any way he wants and tell us how it can be done. He could even tell us he was wrong, gasp!  Instead we have no funding for a wall or even a fence because he never told us it is worth investing our money to do it.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential, Mexico will pay for the wall was a stupid thing to say
Post by: G M on May 01, 2017, 10:46:31 AM
Trump had 18 months to think about how he will do this as he was promising it and has had 100 days to parse what he said any way he wants and tell us how it can be done. He could even tell us he was wrong, gasp!  Instead we have no funding for a wall or even a fence because he never told us it is worth investing our money to do it.

Taxing remittances to Mexico is a easy way to fund the wall, and discourage illegal invaders at the same time.
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on May 13, 2017, 10:54:49 PM
My thought exactly!
Title: Re: 2016 Presidential
Post by: Crafty_Dog on June 07, 2017, 09:34:30 AM
BTW, if we had the Libertarian vote to Trump and the Green vote to Hillary we get:

Trump 67,474,339
Hillary  67,310,847