Fire Hydrant of Freedom
Politics, Religion, Science, Culture and Humanities => Politics & Religion => Topic started by: Crafty_Dog on March 31, 2022, 12:33:35 PM
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10667971/BlackRock-president-warns-entitled-generation-needs-brace-shock-shortages.html
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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-detail-plans-tackle-us-trucking-challenges-monday-2022-04-04/
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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-detail-plans-tackle-us-trucking-challenges-monday-2022-04-04/
I wonder if he’ll discuss how he used to drive a truck.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1957664/another-supply-chain-fire-this-time-on-the-island-of-madeira
Edited to add:
"1. Independent Portuguese island, Madeira has allowed use of BTC"
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1960834/complexities-of-high-end-warfare
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1960834/complexities-of-high-end-warfare
War will be fought here. Have no illusions.
Plan accordingly.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1972876/another-interesting-fire
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second
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1973155/slaves-scream-from-shanghai-prisons-their-apartments
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second
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1973155/slaves-scream-from-shanghai-prisons-their-apartments
My wife says the Shanghainese are signing "We are the world" in English at night as a form of protest.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1976625/so-many-fires-so-many-questions
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If you can't keep it.
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg)
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If you can't keep it.
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg)
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/830/077/original/4f0abc34c69a086c.jpeg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/830/077/original/4f0abc34c69a086c.jpeg)
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If you can't keep it.
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/962/210/original/20374242886e15c6.jpg)
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/830/077/original/4f0abc34c69a086c.jpeg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/103/830/077/original/4f0abc34c69a086c.jpeg)
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/massive-protests-communist-president-inflation-surges-food-shortages-hit-peru-protesters-hurl-rocks-police-buses/
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1995569/we-appear-to-be-under-famine-attack
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/1995569/we-appear-to-be-under-famine-attack
Crash the economy, starve the population, impose the social credit system.
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https://www.cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/union-pacific-shipping-restrictions?fbclid=IwAR1wsd1v_QdOsvEREHKrVdCn-UaUNkhXnimdY_2dd5yPvmQAQfhfRzLyKzA
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https://www.cfindustries.com/newsroom/2022/union-pacific-shipping-restrictions?fbclid=IwAR1wsd1v_QdOsvEREHKrVdCn-UaUNkhXnimdY_2dd5yPvmQAQfhfRzLyKzA
It sure looks like someone is trying to sabotage food production.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2007436/significant-for-numerous-reasons
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2007683/remember-when-you-were-a-kid-and-parents-warned-about-starving-chinese-children
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2008672/americas-food-supply-under-deliberate-attack
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ore fertilizer. Russia increased export quotas for mineral fertilizer producers until May 31. The boost will add 231,000 metric tons of nitrogen fertilizers and 466,000 metric tons of complex fertilizers to the market. Meanwhile, Russia’s agriculture minister announced over the weekend that the government would release an estimated 500 billion rubles ($6 billion) in assistance for the agriculture sector this year to help with lending, seed production and transport.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/3-factors-which-are-about-make-coming-food-shortages-even-worse
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/why-food-prices-are-expected-to-skyrocket_4410862.html?utm_source=Health&utm_campaign=health-2022-04-19&utm_medium=email&est=1zhzVdVcetMiz8FoMDrqIsdFtJ%2FxZ5kOriv5M3Np%2B9OZSY2i99lkURm3iKBHsR9FZMDQ
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Food Shortages Risk Destabilizing Sub-Saharan Africa's Fragile Governments
4 MIN READApr 19, 2022 | 18:27 GMT
In sub-Saharan Africa, a surge in global commodity prices, inflation and supply shortages — combined with major regional droughts — are increasing food insecurity, which will trigger unrest and could destabilize some governments. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, many Africans were already struggling to find affordable food due to the lingering global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. But the ongoing war in Ukraine and the West's subsequent sanctions campaign against Moscow have only worsened food insecurity across countries in sub-Saharan Africa by exacerbating global inflation and creating more supply shortages. According to a recent U.N. report, 25 of the 69 countries that are currently seeing an increase in hunger due to disruptions in food, energy and finance systems are in Africa. Domestic inflation compounds the effects of global price hikes for basic food supplies like wheat, sorghum, rice, millet and yams, significantly reducing Africans' purchasing power. Environmental crises, meanwhile — increasing the ongoing droughts in the Western Sahel and the Horn of Africa — are also adding to agricultural shortages by reducing farmers' crop yields, which then further increase the prices of scarce commodities.
The U.N. humanitarian office warned that Kenya and countries in the Horn of Africa (including Somalia, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Djibouti) are facing the worst drought in 40 years, leaving 29 million people in affected areas at severe risk of famine.
The World Food Program predicts that nearly 22 million Sudanese will face hunger this year, in part due to the fact that in previous years, Sudan imported 35% of its wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine.
The price of a gallon of oil in Ghana's Agbogbloshie market, one of the busiest trading hubs in the country, rose from 105 Ghana cedis (about $13) in August 2021 to 400 cedis (around $52) in April 2022.
Nearly 90% of Kenya's open water sources have dried up, leading to a 70% drop in crop production that is causing acute hunger for 3.5 million people in the country.
Food insecurity has historically been a key driver in political instability in Africa, a trend that the current economic crisis could exacerbate. Multiple factors have historically led to social resistance to central governments in Africa, like high unemployment, economic inequality, political repression and armed conflict. Severe hunger, however, is often a leading cause of extreme political volatility. Indeed, many of those who participated in recent anti-government protests in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan cited hunger and/or an inability to feed their families as a key reason for taking to the streets.
In 2018, protests over food and fuel prices in Sudan evolved into the political revolution that ultimately ousted the country's long-time authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir and paved the way for a transitional government.
Food insecurity and other economic grievances in Kenya helped fuel the massive wave of violence following the country's 2007 election, during which nearly 1,300 people reportedly died.
In January, a military coup in Burkina Faso ousted former President Roch Marc Christian Kabore. In the weeks leading up to the coup, hundreds of protesters took to the streets nationwide to demand economic relief after price increases resulted in widespread hunger, as well as government accountability for the deteriorating security situation in the country's north.
Riots over food insecurity will risk compounding unrest that could destabilize and, in extreme cases, even topple fragile regimes in sub-Saharan Africa. As food staples become increasingly expensive and harder to find, demonstrations demanding relief are likely to intensify over the next few months across sub-Saharan Africa. The risk of extreme political volatility will be highest in countries that have recently witnessed military coups and/or are battling ongoing insurgencies — including Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Somalia and Sudan. Protests against the price of food supplies or lack of access to basic products have the potential to escalate into violence and looting, further undermining the stability of the already fragile governments in these countries. If security forces respond by cracking down on protesters (as they have most recently done in Sudan), a broader movement against the government in question could gain momentum. In countries with less vulnerable central governments (such as Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Ghana and South Africa), food insecurity will still likely result in unrest that could trigger security crackdowns, business disruptions and political uncertainty. Nigeria and Kenya are at particular risk of these factors, as they are both approaching general elections.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2016414/burned-down-hq-of-nation-s-largest-independent-food-supplier
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2016414/burned-down-hq-of-nation-s-largest-independent-food-supplier
People better take this seriously.
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https://nationalfile.com/wef-advisor-yuval-harari-ponders-how-world-will-deal-with-useless-people/
The ClotShot was one way for a "soft kill".
Starvation and war are next.
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Fascinating point, but somehow this is not the thread for it. Perhaps the Intelligence thread?
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Fascinating point, but somehow this is not the thread for it. Perhaps the Intelligence thread?
Maybe we need a "Great Reset" thread.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-rice-production-may-plunge-threatening-half-humanity
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"The ClotShot was one way for a "soft kill"."
One problem with the intentional theory is the upside down motive. A bad vax kills the government compliant people. Don't they want exactly the opposite?
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"The ClotShot was one way for a "soft kill"."
One problem with the intentional theory is the upside down motive. A bad vax kills the government compliant people. Don't they want exactly the opposite?
The compliant are just the low hanging fruit. That’s what the starvation and war is for. If you want your cyberdollars for your allotment of gruel and insect paste, better get vaxxed and turn in your guns.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2027562/what-do-you-think
BTW, Tucker noted this phenomenon last night.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/rockefeller-foundation-president-starts-countdown-until-all-hell-breaks-loose
"The ClotShot was one way for a "soft kill"."
One problem with the intentional theory is the upside down motive. A bad vax kills the government compliant people. Don't they want exactly the opposite?
The compliant are just the low hanging fruit. That’s what the starvation and war is for. If you want your cyberdollars for your allotment of gruel and insect paste, better get vaxxed and turn in your guns.
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https://www.dcclothesline.com/2022/04/21/food-production-is-going-to-be-substantially-lower-than-anticipated-all-over-the-globe-in-2022/
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Too bad the click bait ads accompanying the article are there-- makes it hard to share , , ,
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Too bad the click bait ads accompanying the article are there-- makes it hard to share , , ,
I know, very irritating!
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China’s Economic Suicide: ‘Zero COVID’
Antonio Graceffo
Antonio Graceffo
April 22, 2022 Updated: April 22, 2022biggersmaller Print
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has been adamant that he will maintain his “zero-COVID” policy even as it destroys China’s economy.
By the first week of April, approximately 75 percent of China’s 100 largest cities, which account for over half of the GDP, have imposed COVID-19 restrictions. Shanghai’s draconian lockdown was the most widely publicized. Jilin, a major agricultural and commercial center, was also subjected to harsh restrictions. In March, the manufacturing city of Shenzhen saw a suspension of nearly all economic activity for a week.
With school closures and travel restrictions being implemented in Guangdong, home to tens of millions of people, another lockdown with dire implications for international trade may be on the horizon.
Going into 2022, the central government had already set the lowest GDP growth target in decades, which was 5.5 percent. But now, the Ukraine war and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) adherence to a “zero-COVID” policy are slowing the economy even further.
The Caixin/Markit services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a measure of general economic activity, dropped from 50.2 in February to 42 in March. A Caixin index of less than 50 means that the economy is contracting.
To put the economic damage of the Shanghai lockdown into perspective, this financial hub generates 3.8 percent of the country’s GDP and 10.4 percent of its trade. More than 800 hundred multinational firms have regional or country headquarters in Shanghai, and 70,000 foreign-owned businesses are located there.
Shanghai’s seaport is the largest in the world, with a volume four times that of the Port of Los Angeles, and it accounts for 16.7 percent of China’s shipping.
As a result of COVID measures, export container costs in Shanghai are five times higher and air freight rates are double what they were before the pandemic. Lockdowns are also causing port congestion.
As of April 11, the number of container ships waiting off the coast of Shanghai had increased by 15 percent since March. A shortage of port workers is delaying the processing of documents necessary for unloading, and trucks are unable to transport goods to the processing mills. Consequently, port usage has seen its first contraction since 2020.
Across the country, restrictions on truckers—such as mass testing and the need to show negative COVID results at multiple checkpoints—are causing log jams, shortages, and production stoppages.
During the first week of April, freight traffic in China dropped by about 25 percent. The number of passenger trains is down to 30 percent. Flight ticket prices have also declined steeply as fewer people are able to travel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) had expected to see China’s jet fuel consumption grow by 10,000 barrels per day; however, jet fuel demand is expected to fall by 3.5 percent compared to last year.
Metal producers have cut production due to an inability to ship raw materials or finished products. A Shanghai Metals Market survey found that 6 of 12 copper rod plants in Shanghai’s neighboring provinces had halted or planned to halt output. Consequently, the purchase of raw materials is declining. In March, iron ore that is used in steelmaking and in construction was down 14.5 percent.
With transportation, construction, and manufacturing restricted, crude imports dropped by 14 percent year on year, and natural gas imports reached a low not seen since 2020.
Technology companies were already hampered by a shortage of raw materials and regulatory crackdown. As the extreme lockdowns came, many firms terminated production. Among them were Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., and iPhone maker Foxconn Technology Group. As of April 13, 30 Taiwanese companies, including Pegatron Corp. and Macbook maker Quanta Computer Inc., had ceased operations.
Other tech companies have adopted a closed-bubble system for employees. This may allow them to restart manufacturing, but they will still be plagued by the problems of shipping, transportation, and port congestion.
Compared to figures seen in February, passenger car sales in March decreased by 10.9 percent. Shanghai’s Tesla factory has been closed since March 28, while Volkswagen AG and Chinese EV maker Nio Inc. suspended production in April. Auto parts maker Robert Bosch GmbH (commonly known as Bosch) also closed two of its factories in April.
Domestic sales of excavators, a proxy measure for the health of the construction sector, decreased by nearly 64 percent in March from last year.
Home sales dropped 53 percent last month from a year ago.
While residents under lockdown scramble to find food, the price of fresh vegetables has risen more than 17 percent nationwide. The National Bureau of Statistics’ data showed that farmers in the northeast, where much of China’s food comes from, were prevented by COVID restrictions from plowing their fields and sowing seeds. This can only add to food inflation and shortages in the coming year.
Consumer confidence and spending are down, with Bloomberg estimating that retail sales declined by 3 percent in March compared to 2021. While Beijing plans to inject economic stimulus, its effectiveness is limited if people are unwilling to spend.
Goldman Sachs is predicting a mere 4.5 percent GDP growth this year, but that number presumes that lockdowns will end at some point.
Xi remains adamant that he will stick to the zero-COVID policy and make it the top priority. All provinces have been told to prepare quarantine camps as lockdowns may be extended.
Impact on the US
China’s imports were down .1 percent in March, which is considered a lagging indicator. This means that if imports are down now, exports will be down later. A decline in imports is having direct impact on China’s trading partners.
U.S. exports to China have already fallen by 11.6 percent. Meanwhile, for all of the talk over the past two years about diversifying supply chains, many U.S. companies are still dependent on China. For this reason, as Chinese exports decrease, the United States experiences supply chain disruption.
China’s March producer price index is currently up 8.3 percent. Factory gate inflation and the cost of goods at the factory are expected to rise even further, driving up the cost of imported consumer goods in the United States.
Inflation in the United States already stands at a 40-year high, and the situation in China will just make things worse.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/fbi-warns-imminent-cyber-attacks-food-plants-after-mysterious-rash-fires
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https://tnc.news/2022/04/23/trudeau-government-targets-grain-growers-as-worst-emissions-offenders/
Or not…
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/union-pacific-railroad-announces-delays-cutbacks-in-fertilizer-shipments_4411512.html?utm_source=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-04-24-2&utm_medium=email&est=9wJJgjOHXMqRwIh%2FgEzBq8e2dsqitlosD4tYm0vneV4zuSrsz5HKNOBUnNFAVgUXjfdE
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/union-pacific-railroad-announces-delays-cutbacks-in-fertilizer-shipments_4411512.html?utm_source=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-04-24-2&utm_medium=email&est=9wJJgjOHXMqRwIh%2FgEzBq8e2dsqitlosD4tYm0vneV4zuSrsz5HKNOBUnNFAVgUXjfdE
It’s almost like they are planning on creating a famine…
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/22/northern-ireland-faces-loss-of-1-million-sheep-and-cattle-to-meet-climate-targets
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2048714/significant-russia-just-said-shutting-yamal
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-halts-natural-gas-supplies-poland-european-energy-prices-spike-local-reports
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https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chronic-shortages-few-items-now-will-evolve-chronic-shortages-hundreds-products-later
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https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-science-business-india-global-trade-4d32889d982bf0a60396ff4ba817ca16
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2069821/am-jumping-out-the-overton-window-again
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2070401/flash-to-bang-ccp-lockdowns
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2070621/real-or-more-war-in-our-food-supply-i-do-not-know-results-are-same
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2070635/africa-will-march-right-through-darien-gap-this-route-is-being-streamlined
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second
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-regime-locks-down-worlds-largest-wholesale-hub-under-its-zero-covid-policy_4437329.html?utm_source=Morningbrief-ai&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mb-2022-05-01-ai&est=WT1zneH2YiqG6lQmtQrGRrfbybkXK6wWfPouUYPvFlziP15LYoBrgDMGHxFurA4qEq6c
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second
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-regime-locks-down-worlds-largest-wholesale-hub-under-its-zero-covid-policy_4437329.html?utm_source=Morningbrief-ai&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mb-2022-05-01-ai&est=WT1zneH2YiqG6lQmtQrGRrfbybkXK6wWfPouUYPvFlziP15LYoBrgDMGHxFurA4qEq6c
Once again, Orange Man Bad proven correct.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/never-let-crisis-go-waste-samantha-power-celebrates-fertilizer-shortages-will-force-farmers-transition-natural-solutions-video/
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/never-let-crisis-go-waste-samantha-power-celebrates-fertilizer-shortages-will-force-farmers-transition-natural-solutions-video/
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/alarming-signs-farmers-reduce-fertilizer-may-wreck-crop-yields
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/food-shortages-six-months-globalists-are-telling-us-what-happens-next
Plan accordingly.
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China’s Lockdowns of Tens of Millions Inflicts More Pain on Global Supply Chains
By Dorothy Li May 1, 2022 Updated: May 2, 2022biggersmaller Print
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Seeing China’s financial hub Shanghai, home to 25 million, come to a standstill amid more than four weeks of lockdown has made those in Beijing nervous. The capital city has detected growing COVID-19 outbreaks and has rushed to conduct mass testing in a bid to contain the virus.
Almost all 22 million inhabitants in Beijing completed three rounds of testing on April 30. The results may determine whether they will be destined to experience the same fate as those in Shanghai, where fenced-up people have been banging pans on their balconies at night to protest a month-long lockdown.
Shoppers in Beijing have rushed to stock up on food, just in case. Officials have closed schools, without specifying a reopening date, and more venues. Workers have set up blue metal barriers around residential blocks where infections have been recorded. A sign placed outside such a residential complex read, “Entry only. No exit.”
The scenes in Beijing are reminiscent of other Chinese cities battling the fast-moving Omicron variant. As the Chinese regime appears determined to contain the outbreak under its heavy-handed “zero-COVID” policy, lockdowns and mass testing—and the well-documented suffering that it causes—are likely to remain commonplace.
As of April 28, at least 26 cities across the country are currently in partial or full lockdown, covering some 78 million people, according to calculations by The Epoch Times based on notices by local authorities. These cities range from northern Baotou, a major supplier of rare earths, to eastern Yiwu, an export center that produces everything from Christmas trees to presidential campaign merchandise.
Epoch Times Photo
A bicycle is parked in front of a barricaded fence of a locked-down residential complex in Beijing on April 29, 2022. (Andy Wong/AP Photo)
Those living in areas not under lockdown still face restrictions. The tech hub Hangzhou is testing its residents every 48 hours. About 12.2 million students and workers must provide proof of negative results if they want to take public transportation and enter schools or offices. Similar measures will be effective in Beijing after May 5, with officials at an April 30 briefing calling it “normalized nucleic acid tests.”
Foreigners Flee
The Chinese regime’s relentless zero-COVID fight has forced foreigners to rethink their lives in the international financial hub of Shanghai. The month-long closure of the city, home to numerous multinational firms, has left even white-collar professionals struggling with food shortage issues.
While many are allowed to walk around in their neighborhood now, concerns about being taken into quarantine remain. The city’s 25 million people will continue to take more tests until May 7, local officials said at a May 1 press conference. A positive result means separation from families and living in crowded quarantine facilities, with 24-hour lights and no hot water.
“Until the lockdown, I really couldn’t feel the authoritarian government, because you’re more or less free to do what you want,” said Jennifer Li, a foreigner who is making plans for her family to leave the city that has been their home for 11 years.
The regimes’ handling of COVID-19 “made us realize how human lives and human mental health is not important to this government,” she added.
The European Chamber of Commerce recently warned that the “number of foreigners in China have halved since the pandemic began and could halve again this summer.”
Economic Toll
The strict restrictions are also crushing economic activity. The gauge of manufacturing activity contracted at a steeper pace in April, reaching the lowest point since February 2020, when lockdowns halted industrial production and disrupted supply chains for the first time.
The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in April from 49.5 in March, offering a first glimpse into the economic pain inflicted by lockdown measures.
Analysts from several investment banks have further cut their forecasts for the country’s economic growth rate as the lockdown in Shanghai drags on. The lowest is from Nomura, with a prediction of 3.9 percent, down from 4.3 percent previously, well below the official target of a 5.5 percent increase.
In a worst-case scenario, “China can expect a decrease in GDP by 53 percent if all cities are forced into lockdown,” Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow of global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told an April 26 virtual panel.
China’s yuan currency fell more than 4 percent in April, its biggest monthly drop in 28 years, while its stock markets have been the second-worst performers this year after sanctions-hit Russia.
The slowdown is likely to weigh on global recovery as the lockdown will hurt companies’ sales in China and ripple through the supply chain, said professor Yen Huai-Shing, deputy director of the Taiwan Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research.
Supply Chain Woes
Carmakers and phones are experiencing shortages of components sourced in China. The United States imports close to 18 percent of all products from China and 33 percent of electronics, according to official data.
U.S. giants, including Apple and Microsoft, have warned that China’s lockdowns have intensified global supply chain disruption and raises uncertainty about their business outlook.
A main source of the supply chain troubles has been from severe delays in transportation: frequent COVID-19 testing has disrupted the work of truckers and port workers. “Once the lockdown is lifted and economic activity once again springs to life, a pileup of products from accumulated orders will surge into the United States,” Sara Hsu, a clinical associate professor of supply chain management at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville wrote in The Diplomat. This means that the backlogs that Los Angeles and Long Beach ports experienced last year will happen again, she added.
Yen doesn’t see the supply chain disruptions ending soon.
“[China’s] COVID lockdown brings more uncertainty to foreign investors and damage to their confidence,” Yen told The Epoch Times.
She suggested that multinational companies should consider relocating their supply chain elsewhere. Some firms in the semiconductor hub of Taiwan have already started diversifying supply chains since 2018 during the U.S.-China trade war, Yen noted.
Unwavering in Zero-COVID
As zero-COVID batters the country’s economy, Chinese leader Xi Jinping on April 29 announced an infrastructure push to boost demand, a method Beijing used during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 that created a mountain of debt. However, he didn’t provide key details including the amount of spending and the specific timeframe.
Still, Xi, who is seeking an unprecedented third five-year term in office this autumn, showed no sign of changing the course at Friday’s meeting of the 25-member Politburo, the center of power within the Chinese Communist Party led by Xi.
The leadership called for the country to “persist with dynamic zero,” according to the meeting summary released by the official Xinhua news agency, referring to another name of zero-COVID.
“For now, China is not getting out of the corner the president [Xi Jinping] has maneuvered the country into,” Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, told Swiss media outlet Market NZZ.
“They are prisoners of their own narrative. “It’s rather tragic: China was the first to get into the pandemic, and it’s the last to get out. And in the meantime, they’ve been telling the whole world that they’re the best.”
Luo Ya and Reuters contributed to the report.
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second
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2076341/do-it-now-read-at-least-5-books-on-famine-reading-recon
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What’s Really Going On with These Food-Facility Fires?
We made it to Friday! First, with two small planes crashing into or near food-processing plants, and reports of fires at various food-processing plants and facilities, it’s fair to wonder if something sinister is going on, but the evidence is pointing in one clear direction; I would sincerely love it if unnamed “senior U.S. officials” would just shut up about how we’re helping the Ukrainians kill lots of Russian soldiers; and if you think filling up your tank with regular gasoline is painful these days, don’t look at the price of diesel — and I don’t mean Vin.
What’s Really Going on With Food-Processing-Plant Fires
In a typical year, how many planes crash into food-processing plants?
You’d figure the answer would be “zero,” and in a bad year, maybe get all the way up to “one.” This year, we’re up to two so far — or more specifically, one crash into a plant, one crash about 300 yards from one.
April 14:
A plane crashed into an Idaho potato and food processing plant, killing the pilot, police said. It hit Gem State Processing in Heyburn in East Idaho at about 8:35 a.m. on Wednesday, city police said. The pilot was the only person in the plane and died during the crash, police said. None of the employees at the processing plant were injured.
April 22:
Covington [Georgia] firefighters responded to a plane crash that killed two people Thursday at the General Mills food processing plant. The small plane crashed apparently after taking off from the runway of the Covington Municipal Airport. Six tractor-trailers were damaged as a result of the crash. Both occupants of the plane died. However, the local officials were grateful that the plane did not strike the plant building, which could have resulted in greater loss of life.
Two plane crashes near food-processing plants in eight days is indeed a weird coincidence, and some folks on the Internet — and Tucker Carlson — started noticing other news reports about other fires at other food-processing plants:
February 5: A “massive fire swept through Wisconsin River Meats in Mauston on Thursday, destroying part of the facility.”
February 22: “The Shearer’s Foods plant in Hermiston, Oregon caught fire after a propane boiler exploded.”
March 17: “A structure fire at the Walmart Distribution Center in Plainfield, Indiana broke out about noon on Wednesday. About 1,000 employees were inside but none were injured, officials say. One firefighter suffered minor injuries.”
March 22: “A fire that broke out at a Nestle Hot Pockets plant in Jonesboro, Arkansas on March 16 had the facility still closed as of March 21.”
March 25: “Officials believe a deep-frying machine is behind the fire that destroyed a potato processing facility in Belfast.”
April 13: “Firefighters from several departments in Maine helped battle a massive fire that destroyed a butcher shop and meat market in Center Conway, New Hampshire.”
April 30: A soybean-processing tank caught fire at the Perdue Farms plant in Chesapeake, Va.
So, what’s going on? Is this a nefarious conspiracy of arsonists, terrorists, or foreign agents? At this point, there’s no evidence of that and no reason to think it is the case.
For starters, not all the fires or crashes did significant damage. In the Chesapeake soybean-facility fire, a plant manager said that the fire will have little to no impact on their operations. In the Georgia crash, the plane didn’t hit the building, no employees were harmed, and General Mills spokesperson Mollie Wulff said, “The plant did not experience any disruptions and it remains fully operational.” The pilot in that crash was identified as a student pilot, and the other person was a flight instructor — with no signs of terrorism and no signs of ties to a hostile foreign government.
Second, none of the fires so far have been declared cases of arson. If we had confirmed or likely cases of arson at food-processing facilities from coast to coast, then yes, this would indeed be suspicious. (I know, I know, the Cigarette-Smoking Man showed up and covered it up.) But in any given year, there are a half-million fires reported to local fire departments, and about 5,300 of them are in “manufacturing or processing” facilities. That comes out to about 440 per month, and if there are fires in 440 manufacturing or processing facilities a month from coast to coast, we would expect at least a handful each month to be at food-processing facilities. In fact, the list above stretches the definition of food-processing facilities, because the Walmart Distribution Center also stored clothes and cardboard, and the New Hampshire fire happened at a butcher shop.
Third, if you were a terrorist or foreign agent attempting to choke off the American food-distribution network . . . would you start with an obscure potato-chip maker in Oregon? Then move on to the source of Hot Pockets in Arkansas? Then move on to a soybean-processing tank in Virginia? Are these the right targets if you’re trying to cripple America?
If you were a nefarious terrorist group or hostile foreign power and you had not merely one suicide pilot, but two of them — and in the case of the Georgia crash, someone willing to ride along as a passenger — would you really aim for a potato-processing plant in southern Idaho and then the Georgia plant where they make Cinnamon Toast Crunch? Does this terrorist group just hate carbohydrates or something? Does Dr. Atkins have an alibi?
If you hated America and had the ability to crash two planes into separate targets . . . wouldn’t you pick something a little more high-profile? The last guys did!
How is this plan to attack and disrupt the U.S. food-supply chain going to work, anyway? As of 2017, the U.S. had 36,486 food- and beverage-processing establishments. Is the plan to pick them off, one by one, every two weeks or so?
What we’re likely experiencing is the “Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon,” a.k.a. “frequency illusion” — when you hear a term and then feel like you’re suddenly seeing it everywhere. In reality, whatever you’re observing is occurring at the same frequency, it’s just that you didn’t notice it or ignored it before.
Because of the empty shelves earlier this year, people are paying much closer attention to supply chains these days. During the pandemic, many of us experienced sudden disruptions to our usually steady supplies of many varieties of food, as some meatpacking plants briefly shut down because of Covid outbreaks, and potato growers found it harder to get their spuds to consumers. (There was also that hacker attack on a major beef supplier in early 2021.) Then in January, tens of millions of Americans caught the Omicron variant at the same time, leading to disruptions to shipments of all kinds of products, and thus empty shelves and product shortages across the country. And those supply-chain problems still haven’t been worked out.
Lots of Americans have become much more aware of all the steps between the creation of a particular good and when they purchase it, and just how many things can go wrong in between. (And just about everything can go wrong: The Felicity Ace, a cargo ship full of Porsches, Bentleys, and Lamborghinis, caught fire and sank to the bottom of the ocean in early March.) It is not surprising that something genuinely unusual — like two small planes crashing in or near two food-processing facilities in a short span of time — would catch people’s eyes and get them to start looking for a pattern.
But so far, with no evidence of foul play, this appears to be just another random set of fires in a country that has a lot more fires at industrial sites than we previously thought. The world has a genuine food-supply crisis, as discussed yesterday, and that is likely going to increase prices on certain foods here in America. But the higher food prices we are seeing are thankfully not occurring because of small plane crashes or fires across the country.
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https://ace.mu.nu/archives/399003.php
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/us-east-coast-diesel-supply-is-running-on-fumes/2022/05/04/1ef4623e-cb83-11ec-b7ee-74f09d827ca6_story.html?fbclid=IwAR15jqxv_Tw6Y0-oi4wYz-I07k9OLIWUVra6WYvyeLLwI_923J3-0V57CkU
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second post:
Recommended by MY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0RDGmwH45E
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https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2022/05/monster-trains-and-risks-they-entail.html
Like the supply chain issues weren't bad enough...
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https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg)
Plan accordingly.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/illegal-migrants-first-to-get-pallets-of-hard-to-find-baby-formula
MUST!
VOTE!
HARDER!
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg)
Plan accordingly.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/biden-gang-shuts-largest-producer-baby-formula-us-causing-national-crisis/
Not accidental.
Be sure to vote harder!
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/illegal-migrants-first-to-get-pallets-of-hard-to-find-baby-formula
MUST!
VOTE!
HARDER!
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg)
Plan accordingly.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/another-crisis-looming-major-trucking-firms-prepare-imminent-diesel-shortage-eastern-half-us-blame-emergency-joe-biden/
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https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/469/038/original/6e5ed6743f56202b.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/469/038/original/6e5ed6743f56202b.jpg)
Infant Formula priority:
1. Ukraine
2. Illegal Aliens
3. Dem dependent class
4. Americans who work to feed their children.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/biden-gang-shuts-largest-producer-baby-formula-us-causing-national-crisis/
Not accidental.
Be sure to vote harder!
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/illegal-migrants-first-to-get-pallets-of-hard-to-find-baby-formula
MUST!
VOTE!
HARDER!
https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/106/365/387/original/f8eea0e17b880d6a.jpg)
Plan accordingly.
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https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2022/05/motorists-beware-diesel-shortage-may.html
Plan accordingly.
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https://amgreatness.com/2022/05/15/got-milk/
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2143357/study-famine-now
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2143357/study-famine-now
Good thing that can't happen here!
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/now-we-are-being-told-expect-food-and-diesel-shortages-foreseeable-future
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/now-we-are-being-told-expect-food-and-diesel-shortages-foreseeable-future
https://summit.news/2022/05/16/tv-presenter-warns-global-food-shortages-will-lead-lead-to-cannibalism/
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/now-we-are-being-told-expect-food-and-diesel-shortages-foreseeable-future
https://summit.news/2022/05/16/tv-presenter-warns-global-food-shortages-will-lead-lead-to-cannibalism/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/05/16/goya-ceo-issues-dire-warning-on-looming-food-crisis/#more-269178
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTz92zkgpCY&t=197s
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTz92zkgpCY&t=197s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLgY7KF46p4
Typical Lake Mead accidental drownings, where the victims forget to remove themselves from 50 gallon drums filled with cement before jumping into the water...
https://www.kcra.com/article/las-vegas-water-intake-now-visible-at-drought-stricken-lake-mead/39868301
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https://www.zerohedge.com/political/now-we-are-being-told-expect-food-and-diesel-shortages-foreseeable-future
https://summit.news/2022/05/16/tv-presenter-warns-global-food-shortages-will-lead-lead-to-cannibalism/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/05/16/goya-ceo-issues-dire-warning-on-looming-food-crisis/#more-269178
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/bank-england-governor-warns-apocalyptic-food-shortages-fallout-russia-ukraine-war/
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A recurring theme (hat tip to Michael Yon) popping up here is how events are triggering/causing mass migration. Perhaps doing things to trigger this is a feature and not a bug?
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A recurring theme (hat tip to Michael Yon) popping up here is how events are triggering/causing mass migration. Perhaps doing things to trigger this is a feature and not a bug?
The destruction of the US and the rest of the west is the plan. Cloward-Piven and then the great reset.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2154181/sri-lanka-checkmate-fooled-into-going-organic-now-they-will-starve-to-death
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2154181/sri-lanka-checkmate-fooled-into-going-organic-now-they-will-starve-to-death
"If USA runs out of fuel or suffers significant power outages, worse shall befall us. We are under attack. My estimate is there will be no real mid-term elections in United States. OGUS is making revolution and using energy and food as WMD just as Mao and Stalin did same, killing tens of millions."
Why would Michael Yon suggest that voting wasn't a viable option?
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https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-washington-gas-stations-run-out-of-gas-add-extra-digit-in-anticipation-of-10-dollar-prices
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crisis-hit-sri-lanka-default-debt-country-runs-out-fuel
Good thing that can't happen here!
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-invokes-defense-production-act-220331456.html
screwing up prior to big election requires big moves. :wink:
CNN hot on the story
WOLF with that serious face
to tell us, with his chosen guests how bold this is.
Axel douche will be on
maybe Dana bash of Gloria borga
of course Sanjay
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Pasting this here from the Energy thread
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/vast-swath-of-us-is-at-risk-of-summer-blackouts-regulator-warns-1.1767730
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/18/officers-should-use-discretion-over-stealing-to-eat-says-uk-police-watchdog
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2161279/another-food-fire-barely-reported
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2161279/another-food-fire-barely-reported
The Beast is knocking out our energy such as diesel. No diesel come harvest = famine in United States. And no voting of course. No real voting.
The only way to avoid this kinetic fight is surrender to the ovens.
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Complete:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEqWpXzbpdE
Part 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0I92fRcMU0
Part 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwNJjgV3578&t=37s
Part 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HximVqhvRQM
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https://dailyreckoning.com/we-are-on-the-precipice/
Plan accordingly.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/analysts-warns-world-10-weeks-wheat-supplies-left-storage/
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https://www.aier.org/article/preparing-for-payment-system-fragility/
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https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-05-24/california-spills-10x-water-pacific-residents-use-governor-blames-residents
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https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/cp-rail-train-derailment-hwy-3-fort-macleod-alberta-rcmp-1.6462783
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https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=399292
Infants hardest hit...
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https://acecomments.mu.nu/?post=399292
Infants hardest hit...
https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1050,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/107/472/329/original/93fcad81e975f416.png
(https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1050,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/107/472/329/original/93fcad81e975f416.png)
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https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2022/05/our-economic-misery-isnt-accident-its-plan-daniel-greenfield-0/
Plan accordingly.
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Exceeding expectations. Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture said the country’s grain harvest in 2022 could significantly exceed last year’s. Russia expects to produce 130 million tons of grain, including 87 million tons of wheat, in 2022, compared to 120.7 million tons in 2021. It would be the largest harvest in Russian history.
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https://www.theblaze.com/news/egg-farm-fire?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
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https://www.theblaze.com/news/egg-farm-fire?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
Were they playing with matches or smoking in bed?
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I confess I wondered if the mass culling of chickens due to disease tempted someone with insurance , , ,
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"Plans to"
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/turkey-russia-agree-on-ukrainian-grain-exports-from-odessa-izvestia
Notice the % of food to certain African countries that comes from Russia/Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAbBfiXlMHM&t=40s
Meanwhile in the real world:
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2254554/someone-mined-the-seas
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/small-explosion-texas-lng-export-terminal-sends-us-natgas-crashing?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=716
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June 6, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF
Diesel Supplies and Food
At worst, shortages could shrink the global food supply.
By: Allison Fedirka
Diesel supplies appear to be the next casualty of global energy disruptions. In fact, they started the year in a weak position, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. Inventories were tight, and global refining capacity dropped to 78 million barrels per day from 82.1 million bpd. Things got only worse after Russia invaded Ukraine. The United States, Russia and China have the three highest crude oil distillation capacities, while the U.S. and Russia are the two leading diesel exporters, accounting for 22 percent of global trade by value.
Supplies from Russia have been severely disrupted or have been taken offline entirely. Just under a third of Russia’s refining capacity has been idled due to Western sanctions, and in April, Rosneft announced it would no longer export diesel. Consequently, market experts estimate that 1.3 million bpd from Russia will remain offline for the rest of the year, and Russian production is likely to stay down given its dependence on technology it no longer has access to so long as sanctions remain in place.
The biggest concern over potential diesel shortages is how they will hurt the agriculture sector, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. Diesel and gasoil – both middle distillates – are the primary fuels in Latin American freight transport and farming machinery. U.S. farming and trucking also use a ton of diesel because it’s usually cheaper than gasoline. In other words, a threat to crop production and shipment is a threat to food supplies.
Three of the world’s leading grain and oil seeds exporters – Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. – are especially vulnerable. Last year, the U.S. was the world’s second-largest wheat exporter, Argentina the seventh. Together they accounted for a fifth of global wheat exports by value. The U.S. is the global leader in corn exports, Argentina is the second, and Brazil is the fourth. They account for nearly 63 percent of global corn exports. Brazil leads global exports in soybeans, while the U.S. ranks second and Argentina fourth. They dominate the global soy market, accounting for 87 percent of exports. Brazil and Argentina have already reported concerns over diesel supply and have warned of the impact it will have on their crops. The U.S. is better positioned but will find itself increasingly constrained when it comes to rising prices and distributing the diesel supplies it has available.
Brazil
For Brazil, the problem with diesel shortages is three-fold: high prices, import constraints and domestic political battles. If current trends hold, shortages will begin in September, according to state-owned oil company Petrobras, just in time for the seasonal spike in agriculture demand. These concerns have prompted some Brazilian farmers to reduce their sowing area for the upcoming season and have raised concerns about truckers’ ability to distribute what crops are harvested.
Despite producing roughly 75 percent of its own diesel, Brazil has a hard time securing imports, which have risen as Brazil fails to increase refining capabilities. In recent weeks, Brazilian importers have reported a notable decline in the number of responses to calls for fuel purchases. (Past calls would receive offers from about 20 ships; now that number is two or three.) About 80 percent of its imports come from the U.S., but Brazil isn’t sure that it can count on Washington, which may experience its own shortages and has begun to look for other supplies in West Africa and India.
Either way, domestic political considerations will constrain Brazil’s management of diesel shortages. Through Petrobras, the Brazilian government can set domestic fuel prices. The Petrobras pricing mechanism also affects imports. If the company imports fuel at a market price higher than the domestic price, it must absorb the difference so that the cost isn’t passed on to consumers. This framework has discouraged Petrobras from importing diesel at its current price and has paralyzed the company from being able to raise prices. Containing food and fuel prices is paramount to the sitting government’s strategy for reelection, and the government has therefore strongly resisted efforts to hike prices.
Composition of Average Diesel Prices in Brazil
(click to enlarge)
The government and Petrobras, however, are looking for ways to redress the issue. For one, they are calling on distributors to increase mandatory inventory levels, which currently stand at three to five days. Leading distributors such as Vibra have already started doing as much on their own and have set inventories at seven to nine days. A second option involves increasing the percentage of biodiesel in diesel from 10 percent volume to 12-13 percent. Last, the government is considering legislation that would allow private companies to use state-run terminals and pipelines, with the ultimate goal of reducing prices. Ultimately, Brazil’s efforts to resolve the diesel crisis pit its interest in keeping fuel prices low against importing greater volumes of needed diesel.
Argentina
Argentina is no stranger to shortages. In fact, the government’s economic intervention has played a notable role in the development of shortages. Demand for diesel fuel in Argentina has risen 17.7 percent this year. According to the Energy Secretariat, this is due to seasonal demand, increased economic activity and, most important, sales to vehicles crossing the border from Paraguay and Brazil. In Argentine provinces bordering those countries, diesel demand increased 37-57 percent. The spike in foreign purchases of Argentine diesel is a direct result of the government price controls that keep Argentine diesel much cheaper than diesel sold in neighboring countries. Argentine freight drivers have already reported difficulties acquiring enough gasoil and diesel fuel. The latest survey by the Argentine Federation of Freight Transportation Entities showed that only a third of freight transporters can freely access fuel. The majority (57 percent) have some limitations or difficulties with acquiring fuel for their vehicles, while 10 percent reported no access at all.
Argentina’s diesel shortage overlaps with its agriculture production. The country’s agriculture activity is concentrated in Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe provinces. Agriculture activity also extends farther north to the Paraguayan border and the northeast, where fuel shortages are even more severe. The shortages started in late May, toward the end of soy and corn harvesting season, which runs from mid-March to early June. The lack of diesel supply and depleted inventories have already made farmers worried about harvesting what remains of current crops and about their ability to sow new ones in the coming months.
Gasoil Supplies in Argentina
(click to enlarge)
The government’s options for managing diesel shortages are limited. State-owned oil company YPF plans to increase fuel imports in June and July from two or three ships to four. But unknown time frames and volumes cast doubt on whether incoming volumes can do much good. The country’s larger macroeconomic problems, particularly revolving around U.S. dollar supply and debt, also put into question the government’s ability to pay for increased energy imports. These financial constraints will limit the government’s ability to import diesel, which will become increasingly more difficult as prices rise.
The United States
One of the shared challenges facing Argentina and Brazil is that their main supplier of diesel, the U.S., is dealing with diesel supply problems of its own. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. must support Europe as it reels from decreased energy supplies from Russia. Before the Ukraine war began, Europe relied on Russia for 45-50 percent of its diesel imports and Russian oil products to feed its domestic refineries. In an effort to offset these losses, the U.S. exported 1.47 million barrels of diesel and gasoil to Northern Europe in March, a significant rise compared to the 300,000 barrels in February. April and May shipments are on par with or higher than the March values.
Weekly U.S. Diesel Prices
(click to enlarge)
The question, then, is how long the U.S. can sustain exports and meet domestic demand without prices skyrocketing. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts diesel exports to average 1.3 million bpd this summer, a 38 percent increase from last summer. At the end of May, U.S. distillate stocks totaled 106.8 million barrels after reaching a 14-year low at the start of May with 104 million barrels. Current inventories are about 20 percent lower than the pre-pandemic five-year average and can last about 28 days. This decline has been most heavily felt on the East Coast, where inventories are the lowest since 1996 due in large part to declining refinery capability in the region. Select service stations like Pilot and Love’s have started warning about diesel shortages at some East Coast locations. And with U.S. refineries already running at 92-95 percent capacity, there’s only so much Washington can do to goose production.
Weekly U.S. Distillate Inventories
(click to enlarge)
U.S. farmers are in a less dire situation than their South American counterparts but remain wary about the impact diesel prices and possible shortages may have on their crops. Most of the U.S. spring season has already been harvested; the rest will be done by the end of the month. However, the planting season for most grains and oil seeds is in August and September. Diesel demand will dramatically increase at that time, further pressuring prices and supply. The White House is contemplating an emergency decree that would allow access to 1 million barrels of diesel in strategic reserves. Such a move could be a stop-gap measure for rising summer demand but falls short of solving any of the structural supply and production issues afflicting the country.
At the very least, the rising cost of diesel will jack up food prices at a time when they are already high. At worst, they could lead to material declines in vital food-exporting countries, which would strongly aggravate the food supply crisis.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2276125/another-food-fire-reported
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https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/whats-really-going-on-with-these-food-facility-fires/
of course
we can't really believe anything anymore so I don't know.
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At present I file this under "odd series of coincidences that bears watching"-- apart from the implications for supply chains.
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/06/updated-list-us-based-food-manufacturing-plants-destroyed-biden-administration/
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https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/viral-video-seems-show-100s-dead-cattle-hit-kansas-heatwave
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2287792/food-shopping-in-mexico-today
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second
Strained food banks see rising fear, desperation
Money for necessities spent on gas to get charity
BY SUSAN FERRECHIO THE WASHINGTON TIMES JACKSONVILLE, FLA. | Recordhigh gasoline prices, coupled with rapidly rising costs for food and other goods, have begun to cripple individuals and families at the lower end of the income scale, sending them in droves to food banks and other charities.
Some people are virtually stranded at home, unable to travel anywhere because they cannot afford to fuel their cars.
Amy, a mother of two who lives in Callahan, Florida, near the border with Georgia, said she spent $110 Monday at a local gas station, where a gallon of regular gasoline costs $4.81. She then hit the grocery store, where she pushed her cart past many of the items her family needed because she couldn’t afford them.
She said she left the grocery store feeling “ripped off” — and panicked.
“We’re just very, very careful,” Amy, who did not want her last name used, said as she broke down in tears. “And it almost scares me to the point where it’s like, how high is it going to go?”
Consumer prices rose by 8.6% in May over last year’s figures, higher than economists expected and up from 8.3% in April. The latest numbers shattered hopes that inflation, which has been
climbing for months, was finally beginning to slow.
President Biden acknowledged the rising costs in a speech Tuesday at the AFL-CIO convention in Philadelphia. He told the crowd that inflation “is sapping the strength of a lot of families.” He did not take credit for the crisis and instead blamed Republicans for blocking additional federal spending and tax increases that Mr. Biden said would lower costs for working families.
Mr. Biden told the union crowd that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered higher fuel prices. “I’m doing everything in my power to blunt Putin’s gas price hike,” he said.
The president said he has a plan to bring down the costs of gas and food that includes tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, persuading other countries to release emergency oil and helping export grain trapped in war-torn Ukraine.
“It’s going to take time,” Mr. Biden said.
In the meantime, more people are turning to food banks in desperation.
On a recent morning, cars lined up with their trunks open at Authentic Impact food pantry in Yulee, Florida, a few miles northeast of Jacksonville. Volunteers loaded boxes of food while outreach coordinator John Sauer scanned statistics on his phone that showed a drastic increase in the number of people seeking help from the pantry over the past few months, averaging a 57% increase over last year.
He blamed the rapid rise in prices for just about everything.
“There were people that were making it month to month,” Mr. Sauer said. “And all of a sudden, with the gas prices and the groceries, they just fell off a cliff and they come here.”
Sami Speaker, 83, a widow who lives a few miles away from the food bank, pulled up with a quarter of a tank of gas left. Mrs. Speaker said it costs $85 to fully fuel her car and she can no longer afford soaring food prices. She now rarely leaves the house and has stopped making the trips to Jacksonville that she used to enjoy.
“It’s getting hard for me to get gas to get the free food,” Mrs. Speaker said. “It’s gotten where I can’t go anywhere now. I just sit at home.”
Julie, a server at the Ritz Carlton in Fernandina Beach, said she makes decent tips but not enough income to cover rent and higher prices for necessities.
She decided to go back to the food bank. “I have not come for years,” Julie said. “I make good money, but it’s still not enough.”
A few miles up the road, Yulee Baptist Church is operating a food pantry. Administrator Michelle Springer said the number of people seeking help from the food bank has increased by 25% in recent weeks.
“It’s obviously food inflation, and gas,” Mrs. Springer said. “People are just paying more for everything.”
More bad economic news arrived this week.
The Labor Department announced that the Producer Price Index, which measures the costs of wholesale goods before they make it to store shelves, rose 10.8% in May over the previous year, largely because of higher fuel costs. Consumer goods rose 1.4% in May, marking five months of increases.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Wednesday, the biggest increase in nearly three decades, in an effort to tame inflation.
On the day The Washington Times visited Mr. Sauer’s food bank, volunteers had given away 460 boxes of food by noon and planned to keep it open for another hour and a half. The food bank reopens at 5 p.m., when more cars typically arrive.
The food bank provided food for 832 families last week and needs more donations, Mr. Sauer said.
“I think we are headed toward nothing better,” he said about the economy.
-
Roughly 1/3 of Americans make 15 dollars an hour or less. They are being slammed by Bidenflation.
second
Strained food banks see rising fear, desperation
Money for necessities spent on gas to get charity
BY SUSAN FERRECHIO THE WASHINGTON TIMES JACKSONVILLE, FLA. | Recordhigh gasoline prices, coupled with rapidly rising costs for food and other goods, have begun to cripple individuals and families at the lower end of the income scale, sending them in droves to food banks and other charities.
Some people are virtually stranded at home, unable to travel anywhere because they cannot afford to fuel their cars.
Amy, a mother of two who lives in Callahan, Florida, near the border with Georgia, said she spent $110 Monday at a local gas station, where a gallon of regular gasoline costs $4.81. She then hit the grocery store, where she pushed her cart past many of the items her family needed because she couldn’t afford them.
She said she left the grocery store feeling “ripped off” — and panicked.
“We’re just very, very careful,” Amy, who did not want her last name used, said as she broke down in tears. “And it almost scares me to the point where it’s like, how high is it going to go?”
Consumer prices rose by 8.6% in May over last year’s figures, higher than economists expected and up from 8.3% in April. The latest numbers shattered hopes that inflation, which has been
climbing for months, was finally beginning to slow.
President Biden acknowledged the rising costs in a speech Tuesday at the AFL-CIO convention in Philadelphia. He told the crowd that inflation “is sapping the strength of a lot of families.” He did not take credit for the crisis and instead blamed Republicans for blocking additional federal spending and tax increases that Mr. Biden said would lower costs for working families.
Mr. Biden told the union crowd that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered higher fuel prices. “I’m doing everything in my power to blunt Putin’s gas price hike,” he said.
The president said he has a plan to bring down the costs of gas and food that includes tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, persuading other countries to release emergency oil and helping export grain trapped in war-torn Ukraine.
“It’s going to take time,” Mr. Biden said.
In the meantime, more people are turning to food banks in desperation.
On a recent morning, cars lined up with their trunks open at Authentic Impact food pantry in Yulee, Florida, a few miles northeast of Jacksonville. Volunteers loaded boxes of food while outreach coordinator John Sauer scanned statistics on his phone that showed a drastic increase in the number of people seeking help from the pantry over the past few months, averaging a 57% increase over last year.
He blamed the rapid rise in prices for just about everything.
“There were people that were making it month to month,” Mr. Sauer said. “And all of a sudden, with the gas prices and the groceries, they just fell off a cliff and they come here.”
Sami Speaker, 83, a widow who lives a few miles away from the food bank, pulled up with a quarter of a tank of gas left. Mrs. Speaker said it costs $85 to fully fuel her car and she can no longer afford soaring food prices. She now rarely leaves the house and has stopped making the trips to Jacksonville that she used to enjoy.
“It’s getting hard for me to get gas to get the free food,” Mrs. Speaker said. “It’s gotten where I can’t go anywhere now. I just sit at home.”
Julie, a server at the Ritz Carlton in Fernandina Beach, said she makes decent tips but not enough income to cover rent and higher prices for necessities.
She decided to go back to the food bank. “I have not come for years,” Julie said. “I make good money, but it’s still not enough.”
A few miles up the road, Yulee Baptist Church is operating a food pantry. Administrator Michelle Springer said the number of people seeking help from the food bank has increased by 25% in recent weeks.
“It’s obviously food inflation, and gas,” Mrs. Springer said. “People are just paying more for everything.”
More bad economic news arrived this week.
The Labor Department announced that the Producer Price Index, which measures the costs of wholesale goods before they make it to store shelves, rose 10.8% in May over the previous year, largely because of higher fuel costs. Consumer goods rose 1.4% in May, marking five months of increases.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Wednesday, the biggest increase in nearly three decades, in an effort to tame inflation.
On the day The Washington Times visited Mr. Sauer’s food bank, volunteers had given away 460 boxes of food by noon and planned to keep it open for another hour and a half. The food bank reopens at 5 p.m., when more cars typically arrive.
The food bank provided food for 832 families last week and needs more donations, Mr. Sauer said.
“I think we are headed toward nothing better,” he said about the economy.
-
"Roughly 1/3 of Americans make 15 dollars an hour or less. They are being slammed by Bidenflation."
we have to convince them Dem policies do NOT work
all the while people like Sanders Warren AOC
are pushing the socialist marxist class warfare agenda
their way of courting these votes of course is to bash corporations the Musks and Bezos of the world , not paying their fair share
and promising free this and that
etc
how do we counter that logic ( or illogic )
-
Bernie "Tres casas" Sanders?
I'm sure Warren lives in a humble dwelling, much like her ancestors did long ago...
Doesn't AOC drive a Tesla?
"Roughly 1/3 of Americans make 15 dollars an hour or less. They are being slammed by Bidenflation."
we have to convince them Dem policies do NOT work
all the while people like Sanders Warren AOC
are pushing the socialist marxist class warfare agenda
their way of courting these votes of course is to bash corporations the Musks and Bezos of the world , not paying their fair share
and promising free this and that
etc
how do we counter that logic ( or illogic )
-
GM/CCP: Probably better on a The Way Forward thread.
========================================
New data suggest that the U.S. baby-formula shortage is deepening, particularly hitting states in the South and the Southwest.
Feb. 17Abbott recall
May 2222.8%
Jan. 2022
May
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
Nationally, 23% of powdered baby formula was out of stock in the week ended May 22, compared with 21% during the previous week, according to the latest figures from market-research firm IRI. In the first week of January and before the recall of formula produced by Abbott Laboratories, 11% of powdered baby formula was out of stock because of pandemic-related supply-chain shortages and inflation. Before the pandemic, the normal out-of-stock range for powdered formula was 5% to 7%, according to IRI.
President Biden met virtually with baby formula manufacturers Wednesday, pledging to continue efforts to speed domestic production, as well as import formula from other countries.
“We will continue to work around the clock with manufacturers, states, doctors and families,” Mr. Biden said.
The CEOs of companies that produce formula said they had increased production to meet demand. Several used the word “crisis” to describe the situation. Attendees included representatives from Gerber, Reckitt Benckiser Group and Perrigo Co., which manufactures formula for private label brands.
Abbott wasn’t in attendance.
Mr. Biden told reporters it would take “a couple more months” before things were back to normal.
The Biden administration last month announced a program to increase imports of formula until U.S. production returns to normal. On Wednesday, Mr. Biden announced more Operation Fly Formula flights, which will include Kendamil infant formula made by U.K.-based Kendal Nutricare and Australia-based Bubs Australia.
States including Kansas, Georgia, Texas, Montana and Tennessee have continued to experience the worst of the shortage.
Powdered baby formula, weekly out of stock
5%-7% U.S. prepandemic average out of stock
U.S.*
40%
22.8%
Darker red denotes the
10 highest out-of-stock states
Alaska
Maine
0%
Jan.
2
May
22
Vt.
N.H.
Wash.
Mont.
N.D.
Minn.
Wis.
Mich.
N.Y.
Conn.
Mass.
Idaho
S.D.
Iowa
Ill.
Ind.
Ohio
Pa.
Del.
N.J.
R.I.
Ore.
Calif.
Nev.
Wyo.
Neb.
Mo.
Ky.
W.Va.
N.C.
Va.
Md.
D.C.
Utah
Colo.
Kan.
Ark.
Tenn.
Ala.
S.C.
Ariz.
N.M.
Okla.
La.
Miss.
Ga.
Hawaii
Texas
Fla.
*Includes states where data aren’t available individually. Based on sales at store formats such as grocery, club stores and pharmacies, which represent 80% of total formula sales.
Notes: As of week ended May 22. IRI has several criteria that restrict some state data. States where an individual retailer makes up more than 60% of the market share have been excluded.
Source: IRI
Government officials have said the shortage is especially acute for families that rely on subsidies from the federally funded Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, or WIC, as well as for infants with special dietary needs. The Access to Baby Formula Act of 2022 signed by Mr. Biden last month allows families to buy formula products beyond what the WIC program rules allow.
Some 1.6 million infants were eligible for WIC assistance as of 2019, the most recent year for which data were available. The program is designed to provide formula at no cost to families and positions the federal government as the largest purchaser of infant formula.
About half of infant formula nationwide is purchased by participants using WIC benefits, according to the White House. More than 50% of infants born in Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama and Louisiana received WIC benefits in 2019, according to a WSJ analysis of census and U.S. Agriculture Department data.
Advertisement - Scroll to Continue
Share of births that are participating WIC infants
+
20%
30
40
50
Has contract with Abbott
AK
ME
VT
NH
WA
MT
ND
MN
WI
MI
NY
NY
CT
MA
OR
ID
SD
IA
IL
IN
OH
PA
DE
DE
NJ
RI
CA
DC
NV
WY
NE
MO
KY
WV
NC
VA
VA
MD
UT
CO
AR
TN
AL
SC
KS
AZ
NM
LA
MS
GA
OK
FL
HI
TX
Sources: WSJ analysis of Census Bureau 2020 Current Population Survey data (births) and USDA data (WIC participants); USDA and state WIC offices (Abbott contracts)
The program’s exclusive sales contract system ensures that in each state, one of the major formula brands has the majority of market share.
The result is a marketplace with little competition and little flexibility, making it vulnerable if something goes wrong.
WIC state agencies reimburse retailers the full retail price of the formula purchased with WIC vouchers. The agencies then request rebate reimbursements from manufacturers. Program participants are required to use their vouchers for formula made by the state’s designated manufacturer, dramatically increasing that company’s market share in a given state.
The program’s exclusive sales contract system with major formula brands makes it difficult for smaller makers to gain market share. Abbott’s Similac brand is the most widely used in WIC, covering 34 states and the District of Columbia.
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second
ICYMI: The U.S. will help build grain bins for Ukraine to help with the looming food crisis from Putin's invasion, President Joe Biden said Tuesday. The idea is to circumvent Russia's Black Sea blockade by using Ukraine's rail system to ship tons of Kyiv's delayed grain exports to at least some of the world's markets.
Context: "Since late February, Ukraine has been shipping agricultural exports via rail, road, and river routes at a fraction of its previous seaport capacity," the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported Wednesday in a new analysis featuring satellite imagery of a destroyed rail bridge and food warehouse. "Tens of millions of tons of agricultural products are blocked in port cities, alternate export routes face bottlenecks in neighboring states, and Ukrainian farmers are quickly running out of storage for harvested grain."
"We're going to build silos, temporary silos, in the borders of Ukraine," Biden said Tuesday in Philadelphia, "including in Poland, so we can transfer it from those cars into those silos, into cars in Europe, and get it out to the ocean, and get it across the world. But it's taking time."
-
Too little, too late.
second
ICYMI: The U.S. will help build grain bins for Ukraine to help with the looming food crisis from Putin's invasion, President Joe Biden said Tuesday. The idea is to circumvent Russia's Black Sea blockade by using Ukraine's rail system to ship tons of Kyiv's delayed grain exports to at least some of the world's markets.
Context: "Since late February, Ukraine has been shipping agricultural exports via rail, road, and river routes at a fraction of its previous seaport capacity," the Center for Strategic and International Studies reported Wednesday in a new analysis featuring satellite imagery of a destroyed rail bridge and food warehouse. "Tens of millions of tons of agricultural products are blocked in port cities, alternate export routes face bottlenecks in neighboring states, and Ukrainian farmers are quickly running out of storage for harvested grain."
"We're going to build silos, temporary silos, in the borders of Ukraine," Biden said Tuesday in Philadelphia, "including in Poland, so we can transfer it from those cars into those silos, into cars in Europe, and get it out to the ocean, and get it across the world. But it's taking time."
-
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/real-deadpool-americas-drought-worse-you-think
Domestic food production will plunge.
Got food?
Got water?
-
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/what-your-plan-make-it-through-worst-global-food-crisis-any-our-lifetimes
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sri-lankas-economy-has-completely-collapsed-pm
-
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2332623/biblical-famines-unfolding-more-gas
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Can you guys see this? 76 pages
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022_World_Economy.pdf?utm_source=GPF+Customers&utm_campaign=43be080945-20220623_global_econ_SR&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa39571b29-43be080945-264975290&mc_cid=43be080945&mc_eid=415e14f76b
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Can you guys see this? 76 pages
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/2022_World_Economy.pdf?utm_source=GPF+Customers&utm_campaign=43be080945-20220623_global_econ_SR&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa39571b29-43be080945-264975290&mc_cid=43be080945&mc_eid=415e14f76b
I can.
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Another Food Processing Plant Shutters Operations, Adding To Long List Of Closures
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 - 10:55 AM
A top food processing plant will be closing down one of its facilities in Campbell County, Tennessee, adding to the long list of closures over the last year.
George's Prepared Foods announced its chicken processing plant in the small town of Caryville would be shuttering operations by the end of the summer.
The reason for the closure was not disclosed and has caught local officials by surprise. Campbell County Mayor E.L. Morton told local news WVLT that he's trying to keep the plant open to save hundreds of jobs.
"I have contacted the Tennessee Economic and Community Development staff to request assistance in keeping the plant open or facilitating a sale to another operator
"I have requested Governor Lee's assistance as well. My primary concern is for the welfare of the dedicated workers who have been the backbone of this operation. Our prayers go out to them as well as our very best efforts to keep them employed in Campbell County," Morton said.
Senior Vice President of George's Food, Robert George, released a statement about the closure, citing it's "a challenging time to be in the prepared foods business, and we have been carefully evaluating how we navigate the volatility in beef and pork markets."
George didn't explain what "challenging time" meant and if that was due to rampant inflation pressuring operating margins.
The announcement of the closure pushed up the number of closed US food processing plants over the last year to 100. The list below are plants destroyed, damaged, or impacted by "accidental fires," disease, or other causes (courtesy of The Gateway Pundit):
1/11/21 A fire that destroyed 75,000-square-foot processing plant in Fayetteville
4/30/21 A fire ignited inside the Smithfield Foods pork processing plant in Monmouth, IL
7/25/21 Three-alarm fire at Kellogg plant in Memphis, 170 emergency personnel responded to the call
7/30/21 Firefighters on Friday battled a large fire at Tyson's River Valley Ingredients plant in Hanceville, Alabama
8/23/21 Fire crews were called to the Patak Meat Production company on Ewing Road in Austell
9/13/21 A fire at the JBS beef plant in Grand Island, Neb., on Sunday night forced a halt to slaughter and fabrication lines
10/13/21 A five-alarm fire ripped through the Darigold butter production plant in Caldwell, ID
11/15/21 A woman is in custody following a fire at the Garrard County Food Pantry
11/29/21 A fire broke out around 5:30 p.m. at the Maid-Rite Steak Company meat processing plant
12/13/21 West Side food processing plant in San Antonio left with smoke damage after a fire
1/7/22 Damage to a poultry processing plant on Hamilton's Mountain following an overnight fire
1/13/22 Firefighters worked for 12 hours to put a fire out at the Cargill-Nutrena plant in Lecompte, LA
1/31/22 a fertilizer plant with 600 tons of ammonium nitrate inside caught on fire on Cherry Street in Winston-Salem
2/3/22 A massive fire swept through Wisconsin River Meats in Mauston
2/3/22 At least 130 cows were killed in a fire at Percy Farm in Stowe
2/15/22 Bonanza Meat Company goes up in flames in El Paso, Texas
2/15/22 Nearly a week after the fire destroyed most of the Shearer's Foods plant in Hermiston
2/16/22 A fire had broken at US largest soybean processing and biodiesel plant in Claypool, Indiana
2/18/22 An early morning fire tore through the milk parlor at Bess View Farm
2/19/22 Three people were injured, and one was hospitalized, after an ammonia leak at Lincoln Premium Poultry in Fremont
2/22/22 The Shearer's Foods plant in Hermiston caught fire after a propane boiler exploded
2/28/22 A smoldering pile of sulfur quickly became a raging chemical fire at Nutrien Ag Solutions
2/28/22 A man was hurt after a fire broke out at the Shadow Brook Farm and Dutch Girl Creamery
3/4/22 294,800 chickens destroyed at farm in Stoddard, Missouri
3/4/22 644,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, Maryland
3/8/22 243,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in New Castle, Delaware
3/10/22 663,400 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, MD
3/10/22 915,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Taylor, IA
3/14/22 The blaze at 244 Meadow Drive was discovered shortly after 5 p.m. by farm owner Wayne Hoover
3/14/22 2,750,700 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Jefferson, Wisconsin
3/16/22 A fire at a Walmart warehouse distribution center in Plainfield, Indiana has cast a large plume of smoke visible throughout Indianapolis.
3/16/22 Nestle Food Plant extensively damaged in fire and new production destroyed Jonesboro, Arkansas
3/17/22 5,347,500 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Buena Vista, Iowa
3/17/22 147,600 chickens destroyed at farm in Kent, Delaware
3/18/22 315,400 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, Maryland
3/22/22 172,000 Turkeys destroyed on farms in South Dakota
3/22/22 570,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Butler, Nebraska
3/24/22 Fire fighters from numerous towns are battling a major fire at the McCrum potato processing facility in Belfast, Maine.
3/24/22 418,500 chickens destroyed at farm in Butler, Nebraska
3/25/22 250,300 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Franklin, Iowa
3/26/22 311,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
3/27/22 126,300 Turkeys destroyed in South Dakota
3/28/22 1,460,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Guthrie, Iowa
3/29/22 A massive fire burned 40,000 pounds of food meant to feed people in a food desert near Maricopa
3/31/22 A structure fire caused significant damage to a large portion of key fresh onion packing facilities in south Texas
3/31/22 76,400 Turkeys destroyed in Osceola, Iowa
3/31/22 5,011,700 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Osceola, Iowa
4/6/22 281,600 chickens destroyed at farm in Wayne, North Carolina
4/9/22 76,400 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/9/22 208,900 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/12/22 89,700 chickens destroyed at farm in Wayne, North Carolina
4/12/22 1,746,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Dixon, Nebraska
4/12/22 259,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Minnesota
4/13/22 Fire destroys East Conway Beef & Pork Meat Market in Conway, New Hampshire
4/13/22 Plane crashes into Gem State Processing, Idaho potato and food processing plant
4/13/22 77,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/14/22 Taylor Farms Food Processing plant burns down Salinas, California.
4/14/22 99,600 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/15/22 1,380,500 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Lancaster, Minnesota
4/19/22 Azure Standard nation's premier independent distributor of organic and healthy food, was destroyed by fire in Dufur, Oregon
4/19/22 339,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/19/22 58,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Montrose, Color
4/20/22 2,000,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Minnesota
4/21/22 A small plane crashed in the lot of a General Mills plant in Covington, Georgia
4/22/22 197,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/23/22 200,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/25/22 1,501,200 chickens destroyed at egg farm Cache, Utah
4/26/22 307,400 chickens destroyed at farm Lancaster Pennsylvania
4/27/22 2,118,000 chickens destroyed at farm Knox, Nebraska
4/28/22 Egg-laying facility in Iowa kills 5.3 million chickens, fires 200-plus workers
4/28/22 Allen Harim Foods processing plant killed nearly 2M chickens in Delaware
4/2822 110,700 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
4/29/22 5 million honeybees are dead after a flight carrying the pollinator insects from California to Alaska got diverted to Georgia (New)
4/29/22 1,366,200 chickens destroyed at farm Weld Colorado
4/30/22 13,800 chickens destroyed at farm Sequoia Oklahoma
5/3/22 58,000 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/3/22 118,900 Turkeys destroyed Beadle S Dakota
5/3/22 114,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/3/22 118,900 Turkeys destroyed Lyon Minnesota
5/7/22 20,100 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/10/22 72,300 chickens destroyed at farm Lancaster Pennsylvania
5/10/22 61,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/10/22 35,100 Turkeys destroyed Muskegon, Michigan
5/13/22 10,500 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/14/22 83,400 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/17/22 79,00 chickens destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/18/22 7,200 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/19/22 Train carrying limestone derailed Jensen Beach FL
5/21/22 57,000 Turkeys destroyed on farm in Dakota Minnesota
5/23/22 4,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/29/22 A Saturday night fire destroyed a poultry building at Forsman Farms in Howard Lake, Minnesota
5/31/22 3,000,000 chickens destroyed by fire at Forsman facility in Stockholm Township, Minnesota
6/2/22 30,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
6/7/22 A fire occurred Tuesday evening at the JBS meat packing plant in Green Bay, Wisconsin
6/8/22 Firefighters from Tangipahoa Fire District 1 respond to a fire at the Purina Feed Mill in Arcola, Louisiana
6/9/22 Irrigation water was canceled in California (the #1 producer of food in the US) and storage water flushed directly out to the delta.
6/12/22 Largest Pork Company in the US Shuts Down California Plant Due to High Costs
6/13/22 Fire Breaks Out at a Food Processing Plant West of Waupaca County in Wisconsin
6/14/22 Over 10,000 head of cattle have reportedly died in the recent Kansas heat wave
6/23/22 George's Inc.: Poultry and Prepared Foods announced it will close one of its food processing plants in Campbell County, Tennessee
Meanwhile, in London, Ontario, Aspire Food Group recently announced that its new insect production facility would produce 9,000 metric tons of crickets yearly for human and pet consumption across North America, according to Canadian Manufacturing.
As a reminder, the World Economic Forum (WEF) technocrats urged people weeks ago to ditch meat for "climate beneficial foods" such as seaweed, algae, and cacti.
Part of the new world order is to reset the global economy and reengineer what people eat. This is being accomplished by influential billionaires, politicians, celebrities, biased academics, wealthy philanthropists, and the bureaucrats of international organizations and institutions.
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I haven't figured out yet what "PanFa" means.
-
I haven't figured out yet what "PanFa" means.
Pandemic Famine War
-
what stocks to buy in a famine
Campbells soups?
https://investorplace.com/2022/03/7-food-stocks-to-buy-shortages-impose-pressures-gis-cost-cag-mdlz-k-tsn-sjm-pbj-xlp/
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/five-grain-investments-to-buy-for-income-amid-famine-inflation/
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Make sure you have 2 years of food in a secure location and the ability to defend it before you spend a penny on a stock.
what stocks to buy in a famine
Campbells soups?
https://investorplace.com/2022/03/7-food-stocks-to-buy-shortages-impose-pressures-gis-cost-cag-mdlz-k-tsn-sjm-pbj-xlp/
https://www.dividendinvestor.com/five-grain-investments-to-buy-for-income-amid-famine-inflation/
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Make sure you have 2 years of food in a secure location and the ability to defend it before you spend a penny on a stock.
somehow I had a suspicion you would say something to this effect. :-D
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2353637/netherlands-alert-farmers-fighting-globalists
-
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rationing-has-already-started-europe-entire-globe-plunges-horrific-economic-nightmare
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https://www.jpost.com/international/article-710989
-
second
https://www.theepochtimes.com/dutch-farmers-protest-climate-mandates-that-would-cut-livestock-by-30-percent_4570267.html?utm_source=Morningbrief-ai&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mb-2022-07-02-ai&est=XJK%2F%2F8WjD6YFeCEjo%2BkUfBXYjhnOvRof1PGNMIBs%2BKvN8brATFfd%2F32hV9E4GI94J6NV
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/biden-blocksg-offshore-drilling-limiting-oil-production-begging-oil-companies-produce/
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/supreme-court-refuses-to-hear-truckers-challenge-to-ab5-californias-anti-freelancing-law_4573995.html
on the face of it seems like crony capitalism
not free market capitalism
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2381027/most-productive-farmers-in-the-world-under-attack
Agents provocateurs? Say it ain't so!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4aR0qV9fGc&t=104s
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https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/expert-green-agenda-causing-us-power-grid-be-incredibly-vulnerable
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2399436/ag-report-additive-pressures
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https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/06/complete-collapse-esg-destroyed-nations-economy/
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climate change fools
caused this
without thinking through the ramifications
now China is already planning on moving in to help (exploit ) them I am assuming
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https://twitter.com/lewis_brackpool/status/1546261625736511490?s=21&t=mxzZ4lUTGpuIFyVyY-2ySQ
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The people pushing this know exactly what will happen. The plan is to kill off much of the world's population.
climate change fools
caused this
without thinking through the ramifications
now China is already planning on moving in to help (exploit ) them I am assuming
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https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/07/09/trudeaus-nitrogen-policy-will-decimate-canadian-farming/
Not accidental.
People in N. America are going to starve to death.
Plan accordingly.
https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/06/complete-collapse-esg-destroyed-nations-economy/
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NR PLUS MEMBER FULL VIEW
Sri Lanka’s Collapse Points to Global Gloom
On the menu today: You probably saw that footage of seemingly unending throngs of people swarming and overtaking the president’s residence and prime minister’s house in Sri Lanka. Our Dominic Pino has been keeping an eye on that troubled island nation for a while, and he lays out the sadly predictable path to chaos: a dumb ban on chemical fertilizers, corruption and mismanagement, the interruption of the usual trade routes and tourism, and a devastating wave of runaway inflation. Meanwhile, down in Georgia, there’s good reason to doubt that Quinnipiac survey showing Herschel Walker trailing Senator Rafael Warnock by ten points.
Why Sri Lanka Suddenly Matters
Back in March, as the world was still watching the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reuters filed an ominous dispatch from Sri Lanka about the consequences of its government’s attempt to ban the use of artificial fertilizers:
I cannot recall any time in the past when we had to struggle so much to get a decent harvest,” said [W.M.] Seneviratne, a lean 65-year-old with a shock of silver hair, who has been farming since he was a child.
“Last year, we got 60 bags from these two acres. But this time it was just 10,” he added.
The dramatic fall in yields follows a decision last April by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to ban all chemical fertilizers in Sri Lanka – a move that risks undermining support among rural voters who are key to his family’s grip on Sri Lankan politics.
Although the ban was rolled back after widespread protests, only a trickle of chemical fertilizers made it to farms, which will likely lead to an annual drop of at least 30% in paddy yields nationwide, according to agricultural experts.
A month later, the Guardian’s correspondent sent back a dispatch with similarly grim warnings:
“We are a tropical country full of rice paddies and banana plantations, but because of this stupid fertilizer ban, now we don’t even have enough food to feed ourselves,” said Rajith Keerthi Tennakoon, 52, former governor of the southern province. “We have had past economic crises, security crises, but never in Sri Lanka’s history have we had a food crisis.”
But the Guardian being the Guardian, it had to add a paragraph insisting that a ban on artificial fertilizers was good in theory:
On the face of it, a push to organic farming would be seen as laudable, given concerns over the use of chemical fertilizers. Yet it was the sudden and obtuse manner in which the ban was introduced — imposed virtually overnight and with no prior warning or training – and the questionable motives behind it, that have left even organic farming advocates furious.
Sri Lanka is a small island nation off the coast of India. When Hollywood needs a jungle, it films there. The Bridge on the River Kwai, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and one of the Jungle Book movies all included scenes shot on the island. It is about as far as a country can get from the United States, and when news about the country has reached Americans, it was usually bad news — such as the government’s long battle against the Tamil Tigers terrorist group, or the devastating 2004 tsunami.
Yet with the Tamil insurgency defeated, in the past few years, Sri Lanka had begun to look like a success story by the standards of the region. As our Dominic Pino laid out:
By 2019 it had been elevated from a lower-middle-income country to an upper-middle-income country by World Bank classifications. Its GDP per capita, adjusted for purchasing power, is about double that of India, about the same as the poorer countries of Eastern Europe such as Ukraine and Moldova, and only slightly behind Brazil. Its largest city of Colombo had become a tourist destination. It’s not a wealthy country by any stretch of the imagination, but it was doing well for its neighborhood, and its 22 million inhabitants saw a dramatic improvement in their quality of life in the past decade.
But everything fell part fast: Inflation is raging out of control, the government defaulted on its debts, an energy crisis led to rolling blackouts, and the food shortages spurred massive crowds of people to storm into the houses of the country’s wealthy rulers and effectively topple the government. Inflation in Sri Lanka has reached jaw-dropping levels: “Consumer prices rose 54.6 percent in June from a year earlier, with transport surging 128 percent from the previous month and food 80 percent.”
Back in May, I noted that the Russian invasion of Ukraine meant that two of the world’s biggest grain exporters were effectively taken out of the market, as well as Russian exports of fertilizer. I also said that:
The global fertilizer shortage is likely to reduce crop yields in a lot of places, which means we may be dealing with a worse problem in the coming months and years. Using less fertilizer usually translates into fewer crops… hungry people do things that well-fed people do not. They protest and they riot. Hungry people move across borders as refugees. They are more easily recruited into terrorist or extremist groups. . . . Hungry populaces are more likely to turn to demagogues promising an easy solution. Where there is hunger, there is conflict.
Back in early June, when very few Western minds were paying much attention to Sri Lanka, Dominic wrote an unnervingly prescient piece entitled, “Sri Lanka’s Collapse and the End of Globalization”:
Coming out of the pandemic, Sri Lanka was counting on the return of tourism, a vital industry to the island country with many beaches on the Indian Ocean. One problem: The first- and third-largest tourism markets for Sri Lanka were Russia and Ukraine. Russia is also a major buyer of Sri Lankan tea. The realities of the war and the sanctions on Russia have upended that plan. . . .
Protesters are in the streets, some of them setting politicians’ homes on fire, and police used tear gas to disperse them. Parkin writes that there are miles-long lines for gasoline, and some people are only eating one meal per day.
Sri Lanka’s default may just be the start of a wider financial crisis in the developing world as a result of worsening global economic conditions. The country had the disadvantage of exceptionally poor leadership and bad timing of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. But poor leadership is common in the developing world, and less robust economies are especially susceptible to bad luck.
Countries are economically connected in strange ways. In many cases, those connections only become widely known in hindsight, after a crisis has made them obvious. It would be an overstatement to say that fewer Russians and Ukrainians going on vacation plunged Sri Lanka into crisis, but that seemingly innocuous fact was one of many contributing factors. Those in the prosperous West who are cheering for the end of globalization should be careful what they wish for.
And as the Wall Street Journal warns this morning, there are other debt-ridden countries that are probably not too far from Sri Lanka’s dire position:
Countries such as Zambia and Lebanon are already in the grip of crises and are seeking international help to provide loans or restructure their debts, while Pakistan’s new government, which came to power in April, says that it narrowly averted a debt default in recent weeks, driven by a soaring fuel-import bill. Foreign-exchange reserves held by the central bank dwindled to cover less than two months’ worth of exports, largely closing off Pakistan’s prospects of tapping international financial markets. China, a close ally, provided a $2.3 billion loan in June to shore up the foreign-currency reserves.
Bloomberg News adds El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, and Tunisia to the troubled list.
But Pakistan stands out, as that country has an estimated 165 nuclear weapons. One Indian business publication’s assessment of the Pakistani economy reads like a horror show, and it explicitly compares that country to Sri Lanka: runaway foreign debt; skyrocketing cost of foreign imports; a collapsing currency; falling exports; shortages of food, fuel, and medicines; hoping for rescue from the International Monetary Fund but having no negotiating leverage; and a recovery plan that relies on people drinking less tea and exporting donkeys to China.
You would like to think that a country with a large nuclear arsenal would also know how to manage its borrowing, pay its debts, and keep its economy running smoothly. Then again, there’s probably some Pakistani out there, wondering how an American could have the nerve to make that criticism.
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https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2335913/russian-gas-supply-cuts-threaten-worlds-largest-chemicals-hub
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4xJ2G1fjbw&t=4s
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2424680/holland-uprising-growing-king-must-get-off-his-knees
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/climate-mandates-imposed-on-dutch-farmers-will-ruin-their-livelihood-war-correspondent_4593308.html
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Sri Lanka’s Green New Deal Was a Human Disaster
An ill-advised national experiment in organic farming yielded starvation, poverty and political chaos.
By Tunku Varadarajan
July 14, 2022 6:32 pm ET
The Green Revolution of Norman Borlaug, the American agronomist who did more to feed the world than any man before or since, set Sri Lanka on the path to agricultural abundance in 1970. It was built around chemical fertilizers and crops bred to be disease-resistant. Fifty-two years later, Sri Lanka has pulled off a revolution that is “antigreen” in the modern sense, toppling its president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In an uprising that has its roots in Mr. Rajapaksa’s imperious decision to impose organic farming on the entire country—which led to widespread hunger after the agricultural economy collapsed—Sri Lanka’s people have wrought the first contra-organic national uprising in history.
Footage of protesters swarming the presidential palace—splashing in the swimming pool, watching cricket on television in the bedroom, making tea in the lavish kitchen—resembled the mass break-in at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, but with none of the menace of the American trespass. Mr. Rajapaksa was in fact an American citizen until 2019, the year he was elected Sri Lanka’s president. He has now fled the country.
Will this environmental visionary be offered refuge at Berkeley? At the headquarters of the Sierra Club? Or even by the Biden administration? Perhaps not, for he bears on his head some serious accusations of war crimes that would make housing him inconvenient. But the truth is, Mr. Rajapaksa was driven from office in part because he was an overzealous green warrior, who imposed on his countrymen a policy that the American environmental left holds sacred.
Sri Lanka came to detest Mr. Rajapaksa for other reasons too. He was an autocrat, the latest in the Rajapaksa political dynasty to be president after his elder brother Mahinda, who held the office from 2005-15. Mahinda was a ruthless president, waging a scorched-earth war against Tamil separatists in the country’s north that resulted in a resounding victory for the Sri Lankan army in 2009. Gotabaya Rajapaksa was defense secretary during the war and is accused of signing off on tactics that resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
The Rajapaksa method—take the action you want, the consequences be damned—may have worked to win one of the bloodiest civil wars in modern times. But it was jarring in peacetime, as Sri Lankans found themselves ruled by a pair of brothers who consulted no one and did as they pleased. Corruption soared alongside the nepotism and despotism. Sri Lankans, whose literacy rate is among the highest in Asia and who are classified as middle-income by the World Bank, found this state of affairs increasingly intolerable.
Perhaps because of the seven years he spent living in America during the late 1990s and early 2000s, Mr. Rajapaksa was in thrall to green nostrums. He campaigned for president in 2019 on a platform that promised a form of technocratic utopia, including the commitment to turn Sri Lankan agriculture completely organic in a decade. He was particularly attentive to Vandana Shiva, a rabid Indian opponent of modern scientific agriculture. She considers Borlaug the enemy.
Covid hit Sri Lanka particularly hard, wiping out tourism, its economic mainstay. Heedless of this calamity, and of the wider impoverishment caused by lockdowns, Mr. Rajapaksa took a step that poleaxed Sri Lanka. On April 27, 2021—with no warning, and with no attempt to teach farmers how to cope with the change—he announced a ban on all synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Henceforth, he decreed, Sri Lankan agriculture would be 100% organic. Agronomists and other scientists warned loudly of the catastrophe that would ensue, but they were ignored. This Sri Lankan Nero listened to no one.
Except, of course, to Ms. Shiva and other woke environmentalists, who rejoiced at the epochal nature of Mr. Rajapaksa’s decision. “Let us all join hands with Sri Lanka,” Ms. Shiva tweeted on June 10, 2021, “taking steps towards a #PoisonFree #PoisonCartelFree world for our health & the health of the planet.” Lost in all the ideological ululation was another likely explanation for Mr. Rajapaksa’s action: So debt-ridden was Sri Lanka—to China, in particular—that he may have decided to forgo imported fertilizer and pesticide as a money-saving measure.
What happened next? Rice production fell by 20% in the first 180 days of the ban on synthetic fertilizer. Tea, Sri Lanka’s main cash crop, has been hit hard, with exports at their lowest level in nearly a quarter-century. Whether from indignation over the new laws or an inability to go organic, farmers left a third of all farmland fallow. Food prices soared as a result of scarcity and Sri Lanka’s people, their pockets already hit by the pandemic, began to go hungry. To add to the stench of failure, a shipload of manure from China had to be turned back after samples revealed dangerous levels of bacteria. The farmers had no synthetic fertilizer, and hardly any of the organic kind.
So extensive was the damage done by his organic diktat that Mr. Rajapaksa had to reverse himself by November 2021. His scientific ineptitude was now matched by his economic illiteracy. Battling to salvage his political reputation, he agreed to compensate farmers for their losses, the bill for which totaled more than the money he’d ostensibly saved the country by banning imports of fertilizer in April 2021.
Organic activist groups are still in denial. The U.K.-based Soil Association tweeted this: “Lots of lessons to be learnt from Sri Lanka, but ‘see, organic doesn’t work’ isn’t one of them.” Mr. Rajapaksa, for his part, has had to pay for his hubris with his job. Had he not fled the country, it is more than likely that he would have paid for it with his life. Would that have made him a Green Martyr? We’ll never know. Sri Lanka must now turn to better ways: accountability, democracy, the rule of law and yes, modern scientific farming that can feed all of its 22 million people.
Mr. Varadarajan, a Journal contributor, is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and at Columbia University’s Center on Capitalism and Society.
===============
ET
Sri Lanka and the Start of a Starvation Pandemic
Gregory Copley
Gregory Copley
July 13, 2022 Updated: July 13, 2022biggersmaller Print
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8:15
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Commentary
Poor governmental decisions in many countries are leading to mass starvation–and public retaliation against their governments.
Sri Lanka’s current dire problems—in which popular street action has thrown out, first, a sitting prime minister, then his replacement, and then the sitting president—seem likely to be a precursor to similar actions elsewhere in the world.
And Sri Lanka’s problems are nowhere near being resolved as its population starves.
Moreover, eradicating the immediate symptoms of popular discontent does not guarantee that underlying structural problems have been eliminated. A significant and growing number of countries are presently facing mass discontent over economic and security issues, and some are close to the Sri Lankan situation.
Sri Lanka’s growing economic and political crisis seemed to have moved a step closer to resolution on July 11 when Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe announced—only two months after being appointed to his position—that he and his entire Cabinet would resign, along with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, to clear the way for a new all-party unity government.
On July 13, Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka with his wife, Ioma, to Male, the capital of the Maldives, on an old Sri Lankan Air Force Antonov An-32 twin-turboprop transport aircraft. Maldives air traffic control refused permission for the aircraft to land until the speaker of the Maldives Parliament intervened. There was no evidence that Rajapaksa had provided the constitutionally-necessary written resignation to the speaker of Parliament, but, de facto, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe became acting president and the focus of new mass public protests.
Therein lay some of the challenges.
Constitutionally, once the Sri Lankan president and prime minister formally resign (and the president must resign by letter to the speaker of Parliament), the speaker could then be appointed as acting president. Parliament would then vote within 30 days for a new president to complete the current presidential term, which is scheduled to end in 2024.
The problem of creating the new “all-party” government would lie, however, in the fact that Parliament itself remained dominated by the Rajapaksa-dominated People’s Freedom Alliance (SLPFA), which controls 145 of the 225 seats in Parliament, with only the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), formed in 2020, with any substantial number of seats (45), and the remainder held in ones and twos by small parties.
In other words, the new government to be formed after the collapse of the Rajapaksa administration would still, in essence, be controlled by the Rajapaksa family, at least in the eyes of the protesters who had demanded an end to the Rajapaksa era.
Epoch Times Photo
A demonstrator wearing a mask of Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa takes part in a demonstration over the country’s crippling economic crisis near the parliament building in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on May 6, 2022. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)
This was not lost on the protesters, who had targeted the homes of at least 40 ruling party parliamentarians in recent weeks.
However, in the interest of maintaining continuity as Sri Lanka continued to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over possible financial support, Central Bank Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe would remain in his post, saying he would serve out his six-year term.
The final collapse of the Rajapaksa administration occurred due to mass protests on July 9, targeting (and occupying) the homes of Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe. And although the prime minister and speaker of Parliament announced that the president and government would step down on July 13, the president himself remained silent. Rajapaksa had been whisked to safety just before the mob descended on his official residence. Wickremesinghe’s private home was set on fire.
Border control officials on July 12 stopped the president’s brother and former finance minister, Basil Rajapaksa, from flying out of Sri Lanka. Still, it was understood he finally was able to leave. Meanwhile, no word was heard from another brother, former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who had been removed from office on May 12 and replaced as an emergency measure by Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Sri Lanka’s economy had seemingly collapsed overnight in 2022, but the seeds of that collapse and ensuing food shortage had been sewn earlier. And the COVID-19 global health crisis had meant that tourism—Sri Lanka’s economic mainstay (12.6 percent of GDP in 2019)—had been wiped out between 2020 and 2022.
For various reasons, Sri Lanka was already on the way to an economic meltdown by the time then-Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa began his fifth premiership term on August 10, 2020.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the former prime minister’s younger brother, in May 2021 compounded the problem by instituting a policy to make Sri Lanka the world’s first fully organic farming nation, banning all importation of agrochemicals, including fertilizers and pesticides. The move was ostensibly instituted to address a rise in kidney disease—thought to be the result of fertilizer exposure—among farmers.
But food production plummeted immediately (between 20 percent and 70 percent, depending on the crop), severely impacting the local supply of foods and major export crops, such as tea. This problem, the loss of local food and export revenues, coupled with a shortage of foreign exchange holdings, escalated the country’s economic crisis.
Epoch Times Photo
A farmer prepares a paddy field for sowing in Biyagama on the outskirts of Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Oct. 21, 2020. (Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP via Getty Images)
Farmers make up some 30 percent of the Sri Lankan labor force. And their output of rice, a staple of the local diet, fell between 40 and 50 percent during the growing season, known as Maha. As a result, Sri Lanka imported some 330,000 tons of rice in the first three months of 2021, compared with the 15,000 tons imported in 2020.
By May 2022, the government said that it would reinstate the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, but it was too late: many farmers had left the land or had been bankrupted, and no funds were available to import fertilizer. In any event, the Ukraine war with Russia, which began in February 2022, severely impacted the availability of chemical fertilizers that had previously been key export commodities from Ukraine and Russia.
At the same time, Sri Lanka was forced to default on interest payments on its sovereign debt; it had run out of cash, and the country faced the reality that it had little food and no reserves of petrol and petroleum products. Widespread and rolling power cuts followed.
Riots and protests arose against the government in major urban areas. Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned on May 9, 2022, and his Sri Lanka Podujana Party offered to support a new government under an opposition leader. Still, it was clear that protesters also sought the resignation of the prime minister’s younger brother, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, 73, was sworn in on May 12, attempting to form a new unity government. Harsha De Silva, a member of the SJB, the largest opposition group in Parliament, was offered the finance ministry but rejected it, saying he would work with “the people” to remove the Rajapaksa administration. The Tamil National Alliance said the administration had “completely lost legitimacy” with the reappointment of Wickremesinghe.
A significant number of other societies face similar challenges to those of Sri Lanka, particularly in Africa. Popular discontent has recently been a key factor in other countries, such as Sudan. It looms in Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, South Africa, mainland China, and elsewhere as food shortages begin to show. This is a starvation pandemic—caused by government decisions—that is about to burst onto the global stage.
Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2430744/panama-going-into-food-and-fuel-crisis
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Some good background info in this one -- unmentioned by MY
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/07/the-dutch-farmers-revolt-a-sign-of-turmoil-to-come/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CAPL_20220715&utm_term=Capital-Letter-Smart
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2432855/germany-revolt-brewing-among-farmers-and-port-workers
Edited to add:
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2435551/panama-serious-trouble-unfolding
================
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2433596/important-from-panama-home-of-panama-canal-and-ccp-desires
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTIlbcWURHY&t=123s
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2440039/panama-is-strategically-vital-for-usa-we-are-losing-it
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MY themes abound here:
===========================
Why What Happens Next in Sri Lanka May Be More Dangerous
undefined and Director of Analysis at RANE
Sam Lichtenstein
Director of Analysis at RANE, Stratfor
11 MIN READJul 19, 2022 | 14:51 GMT
Opposition activists outside Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's private residence on June 22, 2022, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Opposition activists outside Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's private residence on June 22, 2022, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.
(ISHARA S. KODIKARA/AFP via Getty Images)
It is hard not to sympathize with the people of Sri Lanka. For months, they have endured a painful economic crisis that has left the country of 22 million people with widespread shortages of electricity, food, fuel, medicines and other basic necessities. Many of these need to be imported, but the country is flat broke. Perhaps even more frustratingly, the main reason for the crisis — years of corruption, mismanagement and consolidation of power by a small elite led by the Rajapaksa family — is largely to blame. Therefore, seeing protesters, who have endured violent crackdowns on their demonstrations, finally succeed in forcing President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and resign last week can only naturally elicit a feeling that he had received his comeuppance. His brother, Mahinda, who served as prime minister, already stepped down under public pressure in May, while their third brother, Basil, left his post as finance minister in April.
Nonetheless, despite this feeling of a near-term victory for the common people, there are also a variety of reasons why what has transpired in Sri Lanka augurs poorly for the country's future internal security and stability. While not discounting the well-placed frustration of average Sri Lankans, as analysts we need to think critically about the long-term consequences of these popular outbursts. Sri Lanka will by no means be the last country to witness what amounts to a grassroots uprising, making it incumbent upon us to consider what happens next.
What Goes Around, Comes Around
My colleagues have done an excellent job covering what initially began as an economic crisis that quickly spiraled into a political and security one. To be sure, the Rajapaksa government is not wholly to blame for the sad state of the country. Even before Gotabaya and Mahinda came to power in November 2019, the Easter terrorist bombings in April of that year devastated tourism, a key source of employment and foreign exchange, while the onset of the global pandemic in early 2020 wrecked economic havoc like that seen in every country.
But even if the country's leaders cannot be blamed personally for these events, they still compounded these problems with a variety of missteps that turned challenges into a full-blown economic emergency. Upon taking office at the end of 2019, the Gotabaya administration indulged in populism by undertaking the largest tax cuts in the country's history, despite being woefully short of funds. Tragically, these were needed more than ever to cover growing foreign debt repayments and stimulate economic activity after tourism plummeted following the terrorist attacks earlier in the year. Then, in April 2021, just as tourism was beginning to return as the country slowly reopened, the government without warning banned the import of chemical fertilizers in a quixotic move to transition the country toward organic farming.
The upshot of these twin policies was entirely predictable but utterly tragic: government revenue (and reserves) plummeted, while food production collapsed and prices shot up. This has left the government wholly unable to respond effectively to the global reverberations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, namely, a sharp uptick in global prices already on an upward trajectory. Despite rising food insecurity, poverty and unemployment, the government had little ability to borrow (its debt having been downgraded) and a minuscule reserve of foreign exchange it could use to fund imports to offset these challenges. This has meant a vicious cycle of widespread shortages of basic necessities causing major economic damage and in turn forcing the government to run down its scarce reserves, thereby continuing the cycle. Even though the government reversed the chemical fertilizer ban in late 2021 and its massive tax cuts earlier this year, the damage was done and it was simply too little, too late.
While the economic outlook worsened, popular frustration turned into outright anger, with much directed squarely at the Rajapaksas, who were widely seen as corrupt and inept. This was not only because they presided over the current crisis, but also because they have long dominated Sri Lankan politics. Prior to a brief interlude between 2015-2019 when the opposition was in power, Mahinda served as president from 2005-2015. While foreign investment poured into the country and the economy grew significantly during his tenure, this was primarily due to large-scale infrastructure projects that sent the country's foreign debt soaring, provided comparatively few returns on investment and were beset with corruption in which elites connected to the Rajapaksas were widely seen as the prime beneficiaries. Both between 2005-2015 and upon reassuming power in November 2019, the Rajapaksas also consolidated government authorities in the executive branch, weakened rival centers of governmental power, sidelined political rivals, and put a lid on public dissent.
Unsurprisingly, therefore, by March 2022 when the first major protests broke out in which demonstrators explicitly demanded that the Rajapaksas step down, whatever popular goodwill the family once possessed had largely eroded. Any remaining support then quickly collapsed as authorities portrayed the demonstrators — the vast majority of whom were peaceful and many of whom had previously supported the Rajapaksas — as violent agitators even as security forces cracked down, in some cases violently, on the protesters. This set the stage for what has now been months of unrest, punctuated by various futile attempts by the Rajapaksas to calm tensions, and ultimately culminating in Gotabaya fleeing the country and resigning last week after being chased out of the presidential palace by demonstrators.
Peering Over the Precipice
With that background, it is hard not to understand the protesters' rage and view their moves to storm government buildings last week as a last resort to finally force a change in government they had been demanding for months. Nonetheless, even if we can sympathize with a proverbial David vs. Goliath story, we must also consider the manifold reasons why the popular uprising raises various risks, and will undoubtedly pose future challenges.
Start with the coming days. While the process of electing a new president is certainly a necessary and positive development, it is also fraught with risk. Demonstrators have moved beyond their initial ultimatum that the Rajapaksas step down and have begun to call for more transformative political change. With no clear leader and no clear set of demands, however, it is far from guaranteed that whoever emerges as the country's next president will satisfy the popular demand for greater change. While demonstrators point to a five-point plan they released earlier this month, only one (the president's resignation) has been achieved and the others include broad ideas that, while laudable, will be hard to implement. These include inaugurating a new government "which subscribes to the economic, social and political aims and aspirations of the 'people's struggle'" and creating a "new constitution that endorses people's sovereignty". Even with the protesters' provision of some specific demands to meet those criteria, it is easy to see such topics could merely stoke further divisions or are wholly impractical. Consider, for example, the protesters' demand that a new government oversee the "cancellation of microfinance and farmers' debts" or that the new constitution endorses a "right of the people to education and health" and "eradicate racism and racial oppression." In short, protesters seem to be setting themselves up for disappointment.
These challenges are compounded by the fact that many politicians appear either too tainted by association with the Rajapaksas — notably, parliament remains dominated by members and allies of their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party — or too politically weak to lead a fractious polity. This suggests that street protests could continue for weeks or dissipate only to resume later this year once widespread disenchantment reemerges. Indeed, the sad truth is that whoever leads the country will still inherit a full-blown economic emergency that will require millions of Sri Lankans to suffer ongoing pain for weeks if not months to come, making further unrest likely. In this respect, the move by interim President Ranil Wickremesinghe — himself someone protesters have demanded step down — to announce another (undetailed) state of emergency in advance of presidential nominations July 19 and voting July 20 may merely serve to harden popular grievances that will once again bubble over in the future, even if it succeeds in temporarily clearing streets. This could happen sooner rather than later should Wickremesinghe become full-time president, a development that would all but certainly galvanize another round of angry street protests seeking his removal. The ballot will occur in secret and Wickremesinghe's main challenger, Dullas Alahapperuma, is from the Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna — albeit from a different faction — and even served in the former Rajapaksa government. This also could raise protesters' concerns about the legitimacy and outcome of the election, even though Alahapperuma is backed by the main opposition party.
But no matter what happens in the immediate future, this then sets the stage for a longer-term concern: Sri Lankans have now demonstrated that a popular uprising can force the collapse of a government. While in more than one respect this is an awe-inspiring illustration of "people power," it also has a more concerning potential consequence: what if such popular pressure tactics become the norm, leaving whatever is the government of the day effectively paralyzed? There is a difference between using popular pressure tactics as a last resort and coming to rely on them whenever people are unhappy. The risk going forward will be that in a political system they see as illegitimate and unrepresentative, people may come to rely on taking to the streets as the only way to achieve anything.
This risk will be particularly salient under the assumption that whatever government takes shape in the coming days and weeks will not survive for long. It will presumably have an incredibly weak mandate and any reforms to get the economy back on track will undoubtedly prove unpopular. The next presidential election is not until 2024 and the next parliamentary one is not until 2025, though it could easily get moved up if the next president chooses after concluding that the people have lost confidence in the government. Rather than generate unity, in such a scenario early elections are just as — if not more — likely to catalyze greater division as elites jockey to protect their interests and demonstrators feud among themselves. While protesters agree that the current political system needs to change, beyond a few general demands they differ on precisely what should take its place, thereby setting up future disagreements that could play out in further unrest. This risk would be all the greater as the excitement over ousting the Rajapaksas erodes and the truly hard work of rebuilding the country begins, thereby likely exposing a range of societal fault lines.
The interests of foreign powers — most notably China and India, which have been competing for influence in Sri Lanka — must also be considered as potentially disruptive forces. Beijing will be loath to see transformative political change that would undermine its interests, while New Delhi — which has been a crucial economic lifeline for Colombo in recent weeks — will expect some form of return on its support to the country. Their interests will surely diverge and, despite what leaders in both countries say, they do not necessarily share the same goals as those of the Sri Lankan people. For a populace that just overthrew a government, any perceptions of foreign meddling would only add proverbial fuel to the fire, but Sri Lanka will also need foreign support to get itself out of the current economic crisis.
This is of course a recipe for insecurity and instability that could undermine Sri Lanka's future potential — all the more so if what has been a united popular movement splits into competing factions with different demands. Aside from the security risks this would pose, in this scenario a split and/or further aggrieved protest movement combined with political paralysis would also make it all the more challenging to secure precisely the developments that would alleviate Sri Lanka's economic crisis over the long-term, such as signing deals with foreign creditors and agreements to increase foreign investment. Tragically, this would merely help to sustain the economic hardship Sri Lankans are raging against.
Sri Lanka Today, Where Next Tomorrow?
The biggest risk, however, may not be in Sri Lanka itself. No matter what happens there, it is by no means the only country facing a combination of high inflation, low foreign currency reserves, high debt burdens and other challenges that could quickly morph from an economic crisis into a political one. Elsewhere in South Asia, Bangladesh and Pakistan (despite the latter's recent agreement with the International Monetary Fund) look vulnerable, as do plenty of other countries across the globe, ranging from El Salvador to Ghana to Laos to Tunisia. While turbulence in each of these countries would have its own unique contours, demonstrators would undoubtedly take heart from Sri Lankans' demonstration of "people power." The danger, however, is that in focusing on an immediate demand to force out an unpopular government, protesters would be unintentionally setting themselves on an uncertain and potentially dangerous new course — one in which political violence, government repression and long-term political instability and economic damage are all on the table.
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https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2022/07/dont-be-roadkill.html
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Alex Newman Explains UN Agenda 2030 Behind Farming Restrictions
By Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Philipp July 20, 2022 Updated: July 20, 2022 biggersmaller Print
The United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for sustainable development informs government policies to restrict farming and transform the food systems in different parts of the world, said Alex Newman, an award-winning international journalist who has covered this issue for over a decade.
The 2030 Agenda is a plan of action devised by the United Nations (U.N.) to achieve 17 sustainable development goals (SDG). The goals and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development were adopted by all UN member states in 2015.
Then-Secretary General of the U.N. Ban Ki-moon called the 2030 Agenda “the global declaration of interdependence,” (pdf) Newman said in a recent interview on EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program.
“In my opinion, [it] was a direct swipe at our Declaration of Independence … So instead of being independent nations, we will all be now interdependent.”
The 2030 Agenda “covers every element of human life, every element of the economy,” including global wealth redistribution not only within the nations but also among the nations, Newman commented. The Agenda “specifically says that we need to change the way that we consume and produce goods,” he added.
Goal number two on the 2030 Agenda deals specifically with food, Newman said.
In September 2021, the U.N. held the Food Systems Summit, which emphasized the need “to leverage the power of food systems” for the purpose of achieving all 17 sustainable development goals by 2030, according to a U.N. statement.
“Everyone, everywhere, must take action and work together to transform the way the world produces, consumes, and thinks about food,” the statement said.
Taking Over Farmland
The sustainable development agenda emerged in the 1970s when the United Nations tried to define it at a conference in Vancouver, Canada, in 1976. Newman said.
The conference, which was the first U.N. Conference on Human Settlements known as Habitat I, adopted the Vancouver Declaration (pdf), a report that provided recommendations for U.N. member states.
Newman quoted an excerpt from this report: “Land cannot be treated as an ordinary asset controlled by individuals and subject to the pressures and inefficiencies of the market. Private land ownership is also a principal instrument of accumulation and concentration of wealth, therefore contributes to social injustice.”
Newman said that, in his view, the U.N. ultimately wants to get rid of private land ownership. “We see this all over the world. This is not just happening in the Netherlands.”
He thinks that a war is taking place against farmers and ranchers, especially those who are independent or those who are not part of the system. “They want to remove small farmers, even medium farmers, from their land, and they want to bring it all under the control of these—I think there’s no other term to describe it—fascistic public-private partnerships.”
Newman noted some examples to illustrate his opinion: The Chinese regime forces peasants to move to megacities, farmers are killed in South Africa, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the United States proposed a new rule that could bankrupt small and medium farmers.
In March 2022, the SEC proposed a regulation that “would mandate publicly traded companies to report on their carbon emissions and other climate-related information,” as well as report similar information from any companies with which they do business, according to an SEC statement.
As a consequence, all companies in the business supply chain of a publicly traded entity would have to report their carbon emission and climate-related data.
U.S. Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and John Hoeven (R-N.D.) led 30 lawmakers to urge SEC to repeal its proposal, calling it a “regulatory overreach.”
”Imposing regulatory overreach on farmers and ranchers falls outside of the SEC’s congressionally provided authority,” the senators said in a statement. “This substantial reporting requirement would significantly burden small, family-owned farms.”
The American Farm Bureau Federation said in a statement that the proposed rule could create “substantial costs” for farmers because they do not have teams of compliance officers or attorneys like large corporations. Moreover, it may push out of business small and medium-sized farmers and force food-processing companies to look for agricultural raw products outside of the United States, the statement asserted.
Centralizing Food Supply
1.tagreuters.com2022binary_LYNXMPEI6B10I-FILEDIMAGE
People shop in a supermarket as inflation affects consumer prices in New York on June 10, 2022. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters)
“If you control the food supply, you control everything,” Newman said.
“One of the things that the communists loved to do is create scarcity and create dependents. As long as you have independent people who are able to take care of themselves, there really is no need for the government to run your life and to control everything that you do,” Newman said.
“Americans are good examples,” Newman continued. “As long as the food production is widely diffused, and it’s in the hands of independent producers, it becomes very difficult to get people to bend to your will.”
The whole idea of using food as a weapon has been a hallmark of communist regimes for 100 years, Newman explained. “It’s also been a hallmark of the very same people who are openly promoting the U.N. Agenda 2030, the sustainable development goals, and even the World Economic Forum.”
Those who contrived “the controlled demolition of our food supply … want to completely restructure it,” in order to gain total centralized control of that because it gives them absolute power over everybody under their jurisdiction, Newman said.
For example, the Chinese regime and the mega-corporations formed a public-private partnership to centralize control of the food supply, Newman said.
It’s similar to what occurred in Nazi Germany, where on paper private companies own the business and ostensibly manage their businesses, but, ultimately, the private companies will be taking their orders from the government, Newman explained.
In the United States, the ESG metrics are used to “hijack control of the business sector, of the individual companies, and put them at the service of the goals of what I call the predator class—the people behind the World Economic Forum, behind the United Nations,” Newman said. (ESG stands for environmental, social, and governance criteria that are used to evaluate companies on how compliant they are with sustainability.)
The food supply centralization is just one component of their agenda, but it is a very critical one, which along with energy and other things, allows them to control humanity, he added.
In January 2021, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the government of the Netherlands launched a new initiative called Food Innovation Hub, according to a WEF statement. The Hub, joined by several public and private sector partners, is a key platform that will use technology and innovations for food systems transformation, the statement said.
The Food Innovation Hub secured “multiyear funding “ from the Netherlands’ government and established its Global Coordinating Secretariat that would coordinate the efforts of the regional food hubs as well as align with global food processes and initiatives such as the UN Food Systems Summit, the statement read.
The global food Secretariat would be located in Wageningen, Netherlands, at the heart of the Dutch agrifood ecosystem, and would direct the development of global, regional Food Innovation Hubs, according to the “Invest in Holland” website.
“The work of these regional hubs is already underway, with more than 20 organizations leading the initiative across Africa, ASEAN [Association of Southeast Asian Nations], Colombia, and India, and the European hub,” the website said.
Ramon Laguarta, CEO of PepsiCo, said in the WEF statement: “Food is one of the main levers we can pull to improve environmental and societal health. With the right investment, innovation, and robust collaboration, agriculture could become the world’s first sector to become carbon negative. … Unlocking this potential will take ambitious multi-stakeholder, pre-competitive collaborations to transform the food system—exactly what these Hubs are designed to cultivate.”
Among the solutions advocated by the WEF to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions is replacing livestock-derived foods with alternative forms of protein, such as insects, and lab-cultured proteins, according to a 2019 white paper (pdf) commissioned by the WEF.
In response to this recommendation, several indoor agriculture start-ups have emerged, including Ÿnsect, “the first fully automated vertical insect farm in the world, able to produce 100,000 tons of insect products a year,” a WEF report said.
In March, France-based Ÿnsect acquired Jord Producers, a U.S. mealworm manufacturer, to expand its operations in the United States by entering the American chicken feed market, said a company statement.
How People Can Stop Food Takeover
If people want to prevent food supply from being used as a tool to control them, they need to find alternative sources of food locally, Newman said. “You need to have a relationship with the local farmers in your community, get to the local farmers market, deal with the local farmers, come up with some agreement,” such as getting delivery of fresh, seasonal produce from the local farms for 100 bucks a week, he said.
“We need to really start providing an alternative economic structure, because if we let them get control of the entire food supply, I guarantee you, it will be used as a weapon to take your freedom, to get you to do things you otherwise wouldn’t want to do, to undermine the sovereignty of your nation, whether you’re in the United States or another country, and ultimately to dispossess people of their private land and of their freedom.”
“If you have agricultural land, do not sell out to these people. They’re trying to bribe the farmers to leave their land.
Modify message
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https://www.iceagefarmer.com/
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/07/going-ireland-joins-canada-netherlands-targets-farmers-carbon-emissions-cuts-endangering-global-food-shortages/
Not an accident.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/post/2470739/president-trump-stands-with-dutch-farmers
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https://americafirstreport.com/ranchers-are-selling-off-their-cattle-in-unprecedented-numbers-due-to-the-drought-and-that-has-enormous-implications-for-2023/
Stock up now!
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https://americafirstreport.com/ranchers-are-selling-off-their-cattle-in-unprecedented-numbers-due-to-the-drought-and-that-has-enormous-implications-for-2023/
Stock up now!
Don't stock up in your freezer unless you have power that works during brownouts.
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Stock up now!
Don't stock up in your freezer unless you have power that works during brownouts.
or if we don't have the vehicles to ship it.
or if we can't afford it in the first place.
or if china decides they will shut down the grid
what could go wrong?
:wink:
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2479480/cause-of-coming-famines-russia-is-least-of-it
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Posted by MY, blocked by FB from posting it at all:
https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-07-24-british-government-paying-farmers-sell-land-stop.html
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third
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2491258/haber-bosch-process-and-the-coming-famines
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https://www.farmersjournal.ie/devastating-blow-for-farming-farm-organisations-react-to-emissions-target-712975
https://www.farmersjournal.ie/farmers-to-be-paid-5-000-to-cull-cows-712590
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https://www.freightwaves.com/news/traffic-jam-of-waiting-container-ships-is-now-as-bad-as-ever
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-farmers-no-food-no-life
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https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/29/pay-attention-to-the-dutch-farmer-protests-because-america-is-next/
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LNG supply. Australia, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas exporter, will decide in October to restrict natural gas exports unless domestic producers can prove the country has adequate supplies for next year. It follows a consumer watchdog’s forecast of a 10 percent supply shortfall in 2023.
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https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=52147
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2520387/potash-potassium-and-the-great-famine
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https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/05/chinas-taiwan-wargames-threaten-disruptions-global-supply-chain/?utm_medium=email&pnespid=5ro6BSccMrgah.ibqia0AYid5Qr0WJF7fO6mnu549gBm9WVZ4V26_MZq0PAcwDsg.e5oCWzc
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NSIDE CHINA
China Locks Down World’s Largest Wholesale Hub, South China Sea Port Due to New COVID-19 Outbreak
By Alex Wu August 7, 2022 Updated: August 7, 2022 biggersmaller Print
The Chinese communist regime has put the world largest wholesale hub, Yiwu city in east China, under semi lockdown due to a new outbreak of COVID-19. Meanwhile, “China’s Hawaii” in the South China Sea has also locked down due to a sudden outbreak. The new lockdowns have renewed concerns for disruptions to global trade and supply chains.
According to official data, since new infections were reported on Aug. 2, COVID-19 has quickly spread in Yiwu, a city of 1.85 million, and to many neighboring counties and cities. A total of 135 cases were officially reported a few days later by Aug. 4.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Chinese regime has concealed the real scale of its local outbreaks and being suspected by the outside world for underreporting the number of cases in the country.
The rapid spread in this wave of COVID-19 infections in the city is caused by the more infectious Omicron variant BA.5.2.
Yiwu authorities ordered a series of control measures on Aug. 4, putting the city in an indefinite semi-lockdown status. All residents are required to take COVID-19 PCR tests, are prohibited from entering and leaving their residential communities unless deemed necessary by the authorities; and must hold a negative COVID-19 test result from within the last 24 hours to enter a public place. Meanwhile, public transportation and non-essential services have been suspended, and most tourist areas are closed.
Yiwu City has been an important port and export center for various small commodities around the world for many years. It’s the world largest wholesale hub. There are more than 2 million small and medium-sized enterprises in mainland China with business connections to Yiwu.
Economic Losses, Disruptions to Global Supply Chain
The indefinite lockdown of the city has raised concerns that the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) COVID-19 restrictions will further aggravate China’s economic downturn and disrupt global supply chains, especially that of small commodities.
Xie Zhanwen (pseudonym), the owner of Qingkou Baolong Plaza in Yiwu, told The Epoch Times that infection cases were found in Qingkou Night Market and that the whole area has been locked down. The authorities haven’t told local businesses anything about how long the closure will be in place.
Zhang Xiaofeng (pseudonym), a seller at the Small Commodity City in Yiwu, said, “The outbreak this time is serious, and there are many confirmed cases in Jiangdong district. Most businesses in Yiwu Small Commodity City are temporarily shut down, and the economic loss is huge. Dining-in is prohibited, but takeaways are still allowed, for now.”
In the meantime, Omicron variant BA.5.1.3 has caused a rapid outbreak of COVID-19 in Sanya, a famous resort town in China known as “China’s Hawaii” and an important port of the South China Sea since Aug. 4. Authorities have locked down the city and shut down all inbound and outbound flights on Aug. 6, leaving 80,000 tourists are stranded in the city. The “zero-COVID” measures are expected to cause further damage to China’s declining economy as well as international trade.
Adding to that, tensions across the Taiwan Strait have been escalating as the socialist CCP pushes for its “One China” principle to the exclusion of liberal democratic Taiwan, which could further damage global trade and supply chains. Following the historic visit of Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taiwan, the CCP has been conducting military drills, sending warships to the Taiwan Strait, and launching missiles in the South China sea and international waters, including inside Japan’s EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone).
The military drills have been disrupting the key maritime shipping routes for cargo and commodities in the region, as ships have to navigate around the Strait in surrounding waters.
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https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2022/08/04/islands-biggest-vegetable-producer-ceases-deliveries/
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2569536/rhine-river-drying-up-this-season
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2570721/europe-rivers-low-farms-dry-energy-crisis
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2571458/venezuela-oil-shipments-to-europe-suspended
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https://summit.news/2022/08/14/potato-shortage-emerges-in-idaho-as-prices-surge-at-supermarkets/
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August 19, 2022
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Global Migration Trends
Food and energy crises will make an unprecedented situation even worse.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Global Migration
(click to enlarge)
The COVID-19 pandemic, ensuing economic crisis, changes in travel restrictions and increased incidents of conflict displacement have created an unprecedented scenario for global migration.
Globally, there are more than 280 million migrants, a record 3.6 percent of the world’s population. Remittances from migrants play a crucial role in low- and middle-income countries, many of which are leading sources of migration, like Mexico and India. It’s also no coincidence their destination countries, like the U.S. and UAE, are among the wealthier countries. Since the mid-1990s, remittances have heavily outweighed official development assistance in developing states. Of the $702 billion worth of international remittances that circulated in 2020, $540 billion went to low- and middle-income countries.
Insecurity also plays a large role in driving global migration and displacement. Nearly 35 million migrants were refugees or asylum seekers, and an additional 55 million were internally displaced. Refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, South Sudan, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo constitute more than half the world’s refugee population. However, as economic strains magnify food and energy crises, the incidence of conflict will likely increase, spurring new flows of security-related migration.
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I'm guessing these price increases are due more to supply issues than demand:
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2606181/germany-marching-into-another-weimar-winter
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2606881/europe-being-destroyed
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https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/113/950/115/original/a8024b78d8e9fac7.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/system/media_attachments/files/113/950/115/original/a8024b78d8e9fac7.jpg)
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/im-shocked-us-crop-tour-reveals-drought-stricken-cornfields
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2621794/switzerland-preparing-for-energy-riots
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2621794/switzerland-preparing-for-energy-riots
Good thing that can't happen here!
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Unleash Prosperity Hotline
Issue #604
08/24/2022
New to the Hotline? Click here to subscribe–it's free.
1) The Left’s New War On Fertilizer Could Cause Mass Hunger And Starvation
Those over a certain age will recall that what gave birth to the modern “green movement” was Rachel Carson’s book “Silent Spring” about how DDT was killing all the birds (stet). Not only was it completely fatuous, but the resulting war against pesticides contributed to the death of millions of poor people in third-world countries from the horrors of Malaria.
We might be facing a similar nightmare scenario as many advanced and supposedly educated countries are now declaring war on fertilizer – you know the stuff that makes plants and crops grow.
The Wall Street Journal reports that “Canada is urging farmers to reduce fertilizer emissions to curb greenhouse gases, triggering a backlash from farmers and concerns amid global food shortages.” Other developed nations have declared "emissions from agricultural sources" a threat to humanity, and they have set a goal of reducing 30% by 2030 and eventually ban nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer.
The net result could be a catastrophic decline in the aggregate food supply, and people may starve.
As Doug Casey, an investment guru and scholar, notes in his latest Newsletter: “The invention of synthetic nitrogen is what created the real “green revolution”- which was mass food production that allowed humanity to grow from a population of under 2 billion to almost 8 billion within a century.
His warning is worth heeding: “The hobgoblin of climate change is being used to obtain full and total control over the entire food industry. Quite a feat.”
We worry that this nutty idea will travel south from Canada to fill the brains of American intellectuals, who will also endorse crippling domestic food production. What happens when the planet’s two largest agriculture exporters cut their food output?
World food security is already at dangerously low levels as the chart below shows.
First, the greens set out to destroy our modern energy sources (so far they are succeeding), and now they want to restrict global food production.
We will say it again: climate change fanaticism is the world’s greatest existential threat to the health and prosperity of the planet.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2647472/five-phases-of-famine-europe-and-usa
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn6c-UkqlHo
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2664126/europe-energy-emergency
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2664126/europe-energy-emergency
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-declares-energy-crisis-emergency-us-will-not-be-immune
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-brink-70000-czech-protesters-flood-prague-over-energy-crisis?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=899
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-brink-70000-czech-protesters-flood-prague-over-energy-crisis?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=899
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/long-reads/ceausescu-romania-bucharest-communism-politics-history-a9234806.html
The global “elites” think they are untouchable.
They will find out.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2685823/significant-power-disruption-in-flevoland-netherlands
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1663521/Bosphorus-strait-Black-Sea-access-blocked-lady-zehma-cargo-grain-run-aground
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https://fortune.com/2022/08/13/salsa-spaghetti-sauce-under-threat-california-worst-drought-1200-years-threatens-tomato-crop/
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2715504/where-did-all-the-ships-off-los-angeles-go
Effect of possible rail strike on shipping:
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2717249/rail-strike-potential-serious-incremental-damage-to-supply-chain
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2725686/maximum-peril-will-basf-die
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2729994/we-have-no-southern-border-wide-open
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https://brownstone.org/articles/a-world-on-fire/
Fire and ice.
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https://ace.mu.nu/archives/400936.php
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/15/gas-rationing-germany-basf-plant-europe-crisis
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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Natural-Gas-Shortage-Could-Trigger-A-Food-Crisis.html
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September 21, 2022
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Russia Hits Europe in the Bread Basket
When it comes to fertilizers, Europe has no good alternatives.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova
It’s autumn in Europe, which for European farmers means it’s time to start placing orders for fertilizer for the spring. Of course, prices have been much higher recently. World nitrogen prices are up significantly since the start of 2021, driven by elevated demand for agricultural produce and pandemic-related supply disruptions. European prices of natural gas – a factor in nitrogen-based fertilizer production – since the second half of 2021 have shot up by even more. And the elevated price of nitrogen fertilizers has already pushed purchasers toward phosphorus or potash fertilizers, bringing their prices to multiyear highs as well. Then, in February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was added to the mix.
Higher energy and fertilizer prices means higher food prices, without a fanciful surge in output or state intervention. This will increase the risk of social unrest in Europe, a major concern for European governments and the European Union. It’s clear that Europe must do something, but the most important factors in the soaring costs are the war in Ukraine and – indirectly, in the case of fertilizers – Western sanctions against Russia. For Moscow, one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers, this is crucial leverage, which it will use to try to extract significant concessions on sanctions. Europe’s next best alternative — finding supplies somewhere else in the next few months – is unlikely to pan out, and it may eventually have to give the Kremlin some of what it wants.
Disruptions, Real and Imagined
Put a large market with lots of manufacturing capacity next to a treasure trove of natural resources, and you get interdependence. Over the years, infrastructure and commercial linkages, made possible by proximity and circumstance, have tied the European and Russian markets together. In addition to being a massive natural gas exporter, Russia supplies approximately 45 percent of the world’s ammonia nitrate fertilizers, 20 percent of potash fertilizers and just under 15 percent of phosphate fertilizers. Most of this production goes to Europe. Russia receives a constant influx of foreign currency, reinforcing the regime’s stability. Europe, most of the time, receives a cheap, steady flow of critical inputs: About 40 percent of its gas imports and, for example, about a third of its ammonium for the production of fertilizers. Roughly a quarter of Europe’s fertilizers are imported from Russia, and together with Belarus, a Russian ally, provides more than half of Europe’s potash fertilizers.
Fertilizer Nutrients and Imports' Share in EU Consumption
(click to enlarge)
EU Fertilizer Production by Nutrient, 2019
(click to enlarge)
Since December 2021, the Kremlin has had quotas in effect on exports of nitrogen and compound nitrogen fertilizers to states outside the Eurasian Economic Union, but those quotas have been gradually relaxed without spurring a significant increase in Russian fertilizer exports to Europe. Western sanctions do contribute, but not directly. There are sanctions in effect that target individuals who run Russian fertilizer companies, but no measures target the fertilizers themselves. The European Union did adopt a quota on the import of Russian potassium fertilizers for one year, but the quota limit is very close to typical trade volumes. Instead, the effect of Western sanctions is mostly transmitted through logistics and finance.
In terms of logistics, Baltic ports that usually receive shipments have become less accessible to Russian producers. Buyers have encountered difficulties chartering large bulk carriers, forcing them to rely on smaller vessels and raising transport costs and delivery times. Financially, some Russian banks are blocked from using SWIFT, the dominant messaging system for interbank transactions. As a result, payments are more complicated, and some potential buyers are avoiding Russia entirely for fear of blowback. In total, nearly 300,000 tons of fertilizers are reportedly blocked from European ports and can’t reach the buyers.
Toliatti-Gorlovka-Odessa Ammonia Pipeline
(click to enlarge)
With respect to ammonia specifically, the war in Ukraine is a direct obstacle to the delivery of supplies. The 2,500-kilometer (1,550-mile) Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline is capable of transporting 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year from Russia’s Volga region to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, near Odesa. But it also happens to traverse the parts of Ukraine witnessing the most intense fighting, including Kharkiv. And since ammonia is highly toxic and corrosive, the war is a problem.
Europe’s Options
An additional problem for Europe is the lack of alternative suppliers. Domestically, the nearly 30 percent increase in natural gas prices put a damper on Europe’s own fertilizer production. As much as 15 million tons of European ammonia capacity has been shuttered or is at risk of it, equivalent to almost a third of Europe’s annual output. Producers of nitrogen fertilizers face significant competition for scarce natural gas from other industries as well as households. And Europe lacks the capacity to significantly raise production of other types of fertilizers. Ideally, Europe would try to develop homegrown resources –preferably not nitrogen, whose processing for fertilizers requires lots of natural gas. Mines in east Germany have started test-drilling for potassium, but again, it would take time to spin those up to meaningful production levels.
European buyers have reached out to other gas and fertilizer producers in the Middle East, North Africa and Canada. The bloc is discussing natural gas with Algeria and fertilizer with Morocco, which already provides 40 percent of Europe’s phosphate imports and contains more than 75 percent of proven world reserves of phosphorite. But Europe faces obstacles here as well. Gas-producing countries are already taking advantage of their access to cheaper gas and running fertilizer plants producing nitrogen at near full capacity. Quickly raising production of other fertilizers is even more difficult. Lastly, importing more fertilizers does nothing to help domestic fertilizer firms stay afloat.
European Fertilizer Consumption by Crop
(click to enlarge)
Then there are the long lead times. Although fertilizer is usually applied a couple of months before planting season (February-March), farmers usually order fertilizer between September and November. The European Union is working on a strategy to increase domestic fertilizer production, protect and create jobs, and diversify supplies, but such a reform will take more time than Europe has – and possibly more unity too.
This leaves Europe with two options: muddle through, or compromise with Russia. Already, there are indications that Europe is investigating the latter. According to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the West is discussing increasing ammonia nitrate supplies through the pipeline in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already given his support to the idea. And the United Nations proposed that gaseous ammonia owned by Russian fertilizer maker Uralchem be piped to the border with Ukraine, where U.S.-based trader Trammo would buy it.
Compromised
But Russia is aware that Europe does not have many options, so Moscow is in no hurry to respond to appeals to make better use of the Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline. The Kremlin intends to squeeze Europe to, for instance, ease restrictions on logistics or payment for Russian goods. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently called on Europe to ease restrictions on port access for fertilizer shipments bound not just for Europe but for non-European markets as well. Several ports, including Rotterdam and Finland’s Kotka, have responded positively to proposals to make exceptions for Russian fertilizers. However, Brussels is nervous that simplifying logistics or otherwise easing up the pressure will restore maritime or rail connections and give Russia more access to foreign currency and trade.
Given the likely shortages of fertilizers for the spring, the prospects for Europe’s 2023 harvest are murky but downbeat. Moscow can use the situation to promote its interests and seek favorable contract terms. It will delay restoration of pipeline supplies for as long as possible under various pretexts, from unexpected repairs to retribution for refusal to pay in rubles. Therefore, food prices are unlikely to stabilize by next summer, and prices in the EU as a whole will remain elevated, heaping more pressure on the bloc.
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Don't worry about the Russian military, food and energy is how Putin breaks NATO and the EU.
September 21, 2022
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Russia Hits Europe in the Bread Basket
When it comes to fertilizers, Europe has no good alternatives.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova
It’s autumn in Europe, which for European farmers means it’s time to start placing orders for fertilizer for the spring. Of course, prices have been much higher recently. World nitrogen prices are up significantly since the start of 2021, driven by elevated demand for agricultural produce and pandemic-related supply disruptions. European prices of natural gas – a factor in nitrogen-based fertilizer production – since the second half of 2021 have shot up by even more. And the elevated price of nitrogen fertilizers has already pushed purchasers toward phosphorus or potash fertilizers, bringing their prices to multiyear highs as well. Then, in February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was added to the mix.
Higher energy and fertilizer prices means higher food prices, without a fanciful surge in output or state intervention. This will increase the risk of social unrest in Europe, a major concern for European governments and the European Union. It’s clear that Europe must do something, but the most important factors in the soaring costs are the war in Ukraine and – indirectly, in the case of fertilizers – Western sanctions against Russia. For Moscow, one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers, this is crucial leverage, which it will use to try to extract significant concessions on sanctions. Europe’s next best alternative — finding supplies somewhere else in the next few months – is unlikely to pan out, and it may eventually have to give the Kremlin some of what it wants.
Disruptions, Real and Imagined
Put a large market with lots of manufacturing capacity next to a treasure trove of natural resources, and you get interdependence. Over the years, infrastructure and commercial linkages, made possible by proximity and circumstance, have tied the European and Russian markets together. In addition to being a massive natural gas exporter, Russia supplies approximately 45 percent of the world’s ammonia nitrate fertilizers, 20 percent of potash fertilizers and just under 15 percent of phosphate fertilizers. Most of this production goes to Europe. Russia receives a constant influx of foreign currency, reinforcing the regime’s stability. Europe, most of the time, receives a cheap, steady flow of critical inputs: About 40 percent of its gas imports and, for example, about a third of its ammonium for the production of fertilizers. Roughly a quarter of Europe’s fertilizers are imported from Russia, and together with Belarus, a Russian ally, provides more than half of Europe’s potash fertilizers.
Fertilizer Nutrients and Imports' Share in EU Consumption
(click to enlarge)
EU Fertilizer Production by Nutrient, 2019
(click to enlarge)
Since December 2021, the Kremlin has had quotas in effect on exports of nitrogen and compound nitrogen fertilizers to states outside the Eurasian Economic Union, but those quotas have been gradually relaxed without spurring a significant increase in Russian fertilizer exports to Europe. Western sanctions do contribute, but not directly. There are sanctions in effect that target individuals who run Russian fertilizer companies, but no measures target the fertilizers themselves. The European Union did adopt a quota on the import of Russian potassium fertilizers for one year, but the quota limit is very close to typical trade volumes. Instead, the effect of Western sanctions is mostly transmitted through logistics and finance.
In terms of logistics, Baltic ports that usually receive shipments have become less accessible to Russian producers. Buyers have encountered difficulties chartering large bulk carriers, forcing them to rely on smaller vessels and raising transport costs and delivery times. Financially, some Russian banks are blocked from using SWIFT, the dominant messaging system for interbank transactions. As a result, payments are more complicated, and some potential buyers are avoiding Russia entirely for fear of blowback. In total, nearly 300,000 tons of fertilizers are reportedly blocked from European ports and can’t reach the buyers.
Toliatti-Gorlovka-Odessa Ammonia Pipeline
(click to enlarge)
With respect to ammonia specifically, the war in Ukraine is a direct obstacle to the delivery of supplies. The 2,500-kilometer (1,550-mile) Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline is capable of transporting 2.5 million tons of ammonia per year from Russia’s Volga region to the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Yuzhny, near Odesa. But it also happens to traverse the parts of Ukraine witnessing the most intense fighting, including Kharkiv. And since ammonia is highly toxic and corrosive, the war is a problem.
Europe’s Options
An additional problem for Europe is the lack of alternative suppliers. Domestically, the nearly 30 percent increase in natural gas prices put a damper on Europe’s own fertilizer production. As much as 15 million tons of European ammonia capacity has been shuttered or is at risk of it, equivalent to almost a third of Europe’s annual output. Producers of nitrogen fertilizers face significant competition for scarce natural gas from other industries as well as households. And Europe lacks the capacity to significantly raise production of other types of fertilizers. Ideally, Europe would try to develop homegrown resources –preferably not nitrogen, whose processing for fertilizers requires lots of natural gas. Mines in east Germany have started test-drilling for potassium, but again, it would take time to spin those up to meaningful production levels.
European buyers have reached out to other gas and fertilizer producers in the Middle East, North Africa and Canada. The bloc is discussing natural gas with Algeria and fertilizer with Morocco, which already provides 40 percent of Europe’s phosphate imports and contains more than 75 percent of proven world reserves of phosphorite. But Europe faces obstacles here as well. Gas-producing countries are already taking advantage of their access to cheaper gas and running fertilizer plants producing nitrogen at near full capacity. Quickly raising production of other fertilizers is even more difficult. Lastly, importing more fertilizers does nothing to help domestic fertilizer firms stay afloat.
European Fertilizer Consumption by Crop
(click to enlarge)
Then there are the long lead times. Although fertilizer is usually applied a couple of months before planting season (February-March), farmers usually order fertilizer between September and November. The European Union is working on a strategy to increase domestic fertilizer production, protect and create jobs, and diversify supplies, but such a reform will take more time than Europe has – and possibly more unity too.
This leaves Europe with two options: muddle through, or compromise with Russia. Already, there are indications that Europe is investigating the latter. According to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the West is discussing increasing ammonia nitrate supplies through the pipeline in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already given his support to the idea. And the United Nations proposed that gaseous ammonia owned by Russian fertilizer maker Uralchem be piped to the border with Ukraine, where U.S.-based trader Trammo would buy it.
Compromised
But Russia is aware that Europe does not have many options, so Moscow is in no hurry to respond to appeals to make better use of the Togliatti-Gorlovka-Odesa pipeline. The Kremlin intends to squeeze Europe to, for instance, ease restrictions on logistics or payment for Russian goods. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently called on Europe to ease restrictions on port access for fertilizer shipments bound not just for Europe but for non-European markets as well. Several ports, including Rotterdam and Finland’s Kotka, have responded positively to proposals to make exceptions for Russian fertilizers. However, Brussels is nervous that simplifying logistics or otherwise easing up the pressure will restore maritime or rail connections and give Russia more access to foreign currency and trade.
Given the likely shortages of fertilizers for the spring, the prospects for Europe’s 2023 harvest are murky but downbeat. Moscow can use the situation to promote its interests and seek favorable contract terms. It will delay restoration of pipeline supplies for as long as possible under various pretexts, from unexpected repairs to retribution for refusal to pay in rubles. Therefore, food prices are unlikely to stabilize by next summer, and prices in the EU as a whole will remain elevated, heaping more pressure on the bloc.
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Entirely possible!
https://www.13abc.com/2022/09/20/crews-battling-fire-bp-refinery/
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/09/united-nations-food-chief-urges-warns-chaos-wide-spread-food-shortage-next-year-world-facing-perfect-storm-top-perfect-storm/
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September 30, 2022
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Global Food Insecurity
There is little cause for short-term optimism.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Food Insecurity and Hunger Hotspots
(click to enlarge)
Widespread food insecurity is back on the table. War and organized violence are the main drivers of acute food insecurity, followed by weather events and post-pandemic economic disruption. For some places this is a near-constant problem, but right now there are several new areas experiencing difficulty. In the Americas, for instance, migration, organized crime and abusive government policies have put food security at risk. Ukraine stands out not only for its own food issues but also its role as a provider of food for the rest of the world. In North Korea and Myanmar (and to a lesser extent Sri Lanka), food insecurity could destabilize regimes and cause regional crises.
There is little reason to believe the global situation will improve anytime soon. A prolonged Russia-Ukraine war will have lasting effects on local production and grain export infrastructure that will take many months, if not years, to repair. And distortions in the fertilizer market and high prices will also affect crop prices in 2023.
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With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?
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With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?
I would assume that Russia will serving us some cold dishes, especially once winter arrives in N America.
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With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?
The bridge is a big deal. Yes, presumably the Ukrainians did it (since they are at war). Are we waiting for the Russian retaliation, or are they already blowing up everything they can?
The pipeline attacks are a mystery to me. Very hard to do armchair geopolitics (and war) right now from a half world away without knowing who did that and why.
Biden said (implied?) we would do it. One post here opined the US did it, "100% chance". I don't buy it, (and I don't have a better theory). Just that Biden's lips moving and reality have no correlation.
IF the US did it, what is Putin's retaliation?
IF anti-energy, anti-pipeline people did it, how? And why? Too strange to believe.
For Russia', the pipelines are itheir cash register. For Europe, it is life saving energy. No motive.
Meanwhile, Yes, we should increase security on canals etc.
Or as some (not me) might say, not in the US, not our problem.
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With the hit on NS 2 (by America?) and now on the Kerch Bridge (presumably by the Ukes) do others begin to get similar ideas e.g. hitting the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, transoceanic internet cables, etc?
The bridge is a big deal. Yes, presumably the Ukrainians did it (since they are at war). Are we waiting for the Russian retaliation, or are they already blowing up everything they can?
The pipeline attacks are a mystery to me. Very hard to do armchair geopolitics (and war) right now from a half world away without knowing who did that and why.
Biden said (implied?) we would do it. One post here opined the US did it, "100% chance". I don't buy it, (and I don't have a better theory). Just that Biden's lips moving and reality have no correlation.
IF the US did it, what is Putin's retaliation?
IF anti-energy, anti-pipeline people did it, how? And why? Too strange to believe.
For Russia', the pipelines are itheir cash register. For Europe, it is life saving energy. No motive.
Meanwhile, Yes, we should increase security on canals etc.
Or as some (not me) might say, not in the US, not our problem.
It prevents Germany from cutting a side deal with Russia, after Germans get tired of freezing this winter.
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Concur.
Also, solidifies demand for the new pipeline out of Norway.
Here's this from MY today:
https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2859902/natural-gas-problems-and-islands-of-doom
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"Concur"
Crafty, do you believe the US under Biden blew up the energy supply line to Europe - with winter coming?
If yes, implications?
If no, whodunnit?
What does ya think?
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"It prevents Germany from cutting a side deal with Russia, after Germans get tired of freezing this winter."
This makes sense to me. Indeed, enabling Germany to backstab its East Europe allies was precisely the point of the NSs IMHO.
So, qui bono?
America? Poland? Norway?
Given Biden's statement in 2/21 and the military-tech capabilities required, I'm guessing it was us, though giving a wink to someone else is entirely possible as well.
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2861954/shallow-water-significant-logistics-issues-on-mississippi
also see
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/barges-grounded-mississippi-river-water-levels-approach-record-lows?fbclid=IwAR3ocAqF-Ma5QJG9FReMpkdSfm00fUcXC_4o9oOr3NV00Z_IJnRosKKVDQ8
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second
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMMbSpE5N_Y
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2894845/rape-of-the-seas
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2914266/this-ain-t-rocket-science
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/2930318/freedom-fighting-without-paywall
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/helium-shortage-doctors-worried-running-110000674.html
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/commercial-barge-lines-struggle-as-drought-stricken-mississippi-river-levels-plummet_4813431.html?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-10-23-2&src_cmp=breaking-2022-10-23-2&utm_medium=email&est=C6KWaf3sNLqPKd55ES8zhZeKlnF5zTBx8oQsA27wYF3Z6Bc2%2F9vHcJid5q0JiYa%2FSp4%2B
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US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply; Shortage Could Cripple Economy
By Jack Phillips October 23, 2022 Updated: October 23, 2022biggersmaller Print
The United States is down to 25 days of diesel supply as a top White House official declared the stockpile levels to be “unacceptably low.”
Data provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that diesel stockpiles are at their lowest level for October in records that date back to 1993, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. EIA data show that the United States, as of Oct. 14, has 25.4 days of supply—down from 34.2 days of supply four weeks prior.
National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, a top adviser to President Joe Biden, told Bloomberg News last week that current diesel levels are “unacceptably” low and that “all options are on the table” to increase supplies.
The diesel crunch comes just over two weeks before the November 2022 midterm elections and will likely drive up prices even more. Diesel is the fuel used by freight trains and commonly used by long-haul truckers to transport goods and food.
“Most of the products we use are transported by trucks and trains with diesel engines, and most construction, farming, and military vehicles and equipment also have diesel engines,” the EIA’s website states. “As a transportation fuel, diesel fuel offers a wide range of performance, efficiency, and safety features. Diesel fuel also has a greater energy density than other liquid fuels, so it provides more useful energy per unit of volume.”
Prices, meanwhile, remain relatively elevated, according to AAA data. The average price for a gallon of diesel stands at around $5.33 nationwide, or up nearly $2 since the same time in 2021, the data shows.
Wholesale diesel prices at the New York spot market spiked last week to more than $200 per barrel.
It comes as the Biden administration recently announced it would release another 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of the 180 million Biden authorized in March, that Republicans say is a bid to keep Democrats politically afloat ahead of the midterms. But Biden and his allies say that it’s not a political tactic, and the administration says it will refill the reserve when prices drop to $67–$72 per barrel.
“The United States government is going to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when prices fall to $70 a barrel,” Biden said on Oct. 19. “And that means oil companies can invest to ramp up production now, with confidence they’ll be able to sell their oil to us at that price in the future: $70.”
The move came after the International Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) announced that it would cut oil production.
“Now, after draining our emergency reserves to a 40-year low, Democrats want billions more of taxpayer dollars to refill the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] at more than double the price,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told the New York Post last week. “This is a direct attack on every single American struggling to fill their tanks and heat their homes.”
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/commercial-barge-lines-struggle-as-drought-stricken-mississippi-river-levels-plummet_4813431.html?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-10-23-2&src_cmp=breaking-2022-10-23-2&utm_medium=email&est=C6KWaf3sNLqPKd55ES8zhZeKlnF5zTBx8oQsA27wYF3Z6Bc2%2F9vHcJid5q0JiYa%2FSp4%2B
Yes. Low water levels. Lowest in 10 years. In other words, well within normal range. Droughts are normal.
Shipping grain downstream by barges on rivers is not only efficient, it's almost free to ship massive volumes.
And then when the water levels are low, in a resilient economy, you ship it some other way.
Problem is, all other ways of 'shipping', like trucks and trains running on diesel (oops, what diesel?), run head-on into the chosen war on fossil fuels. And now we're screwed.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Widespread drought, by the way, is not caused by the combustion of fossil fuels:
CH4 + 2 O2 = CO2 + 2 H20
For natural gas used to heat water and heat our homes, 2 molecules of H2O are emitted for every hydrocarbon molecule combusted.
Twice as much water created as CO2. Who knew.
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https://www.powderbulksolids.com/chemical/fertilizer-manufacturing-plant-destroyed-massive-fire
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/diesel-market-to-stay-tight-into-winter-chevron-chairman_4829028.html?utm_source=News&src_src=News&utm_campaign=breaking-2022-10-31-1&src_cmp=breaking-2022-10-31-1&utm_medium=email&est=T5PFOLNZqj1LNe00NAkiclIrHC9hg505wF6qxN6yvqTrHHCD67PAleZHPzWvCm%2Bv0l3T
https://www.theepochtimes.com/fuel-company-issues-diesel-shortage-warning-says-us-rapidly-devolving_4829797.html?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2022-10-31&src_cmp=mb-2022-10-31&utm_medium=email&est=YHviuT%2B%2BzHxFFFXYfxuks7aPhkbFndbx0o6iuZJdaInS9aBwW5suCUDCn3IJvmvjJy%2Ft
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Daily Memo: Ukrainian Grain Leaves Port Despite Deal Suspension
Kyiv organized a plan with mediators to ensure its grain can still leave Ukrainian ports, for now.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Deal is off. Russia announced over the weekend that it was suspending its participation in a U.N.-backed deal that facilitated the transport of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. Moscow said the move was in response to a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet, though Russia had raised doubts about the agreement's future for weeks. Wheat futures jumped more than 5 percent on Monday, and corn futures rose more than 2 percent. Still, the U.N., Ukraine and Turkey, which helped broker the deal, agreed on a plan to sail some ships stocked with Ukrainian wheat through the Black Sea despite Russia's withdrawal. The original agreement was reached in July to help ease food shortages, particularly in developing countries, but Moscow has repeatedly criticized its execution, claiming that most of the ships went to Europe instead.
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November 17, 2022
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Daily Memo: Ukraine Grain Deal Extended
The agreement was meant to alleviate global food shortages.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Making deals. The deal that enabled Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea will be extended by 120 days, according to the president of Turkey, who helped mediate the agreement. He thanked U.N., Ukrainian and Russian leaders for negotiating the extension. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that Russian fertilizer deliveries to Africa via a special corridor through Europe will begin in the coming weeks. The arrangement seems to be a Western concession to Moscow, which had earlier indicated that an extension of the grain deal would be conditioned on fertilizer deliveries.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-preparing-emergency-cash-deliveries-bank-runs-ahead-winter-power-cuts?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1075
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https://www.americanrifleman.org/content/industry-supply-chain-woes-to-continue-survey-says/
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/28/with-rail-strike-looming-tech-companies-reroute-chips-to-trucking-.html?fbclid=IwAR3sbSy0wxwAv_IPWC2gjrLhgUkDo1M1dRXyb_q3o0Yz1mubEdXZ2OW0mms
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3151649/spoonful-of-reality
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3281451/signs-and-symptoms
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I had a patient yrs ago
who was a train/train track buff
and yes he took pictures and was even in some sort of club
he would come in and show me pictures and talk about it.
I never quite understood what attracted him to this
perhaps the romanticism of associating trains with travel, intrigue, getting away,
leaving, arriving, starting over, change scenery, or something like that
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3292251/disruption-potential-localized-chicken-famine-unfolding
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3305810/storm-gathers-energy
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3371036/fertilizer-not-enough
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDVH_JJIRWI
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https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1050,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/126/871/659/original/7f1f12be28b779e2.jpg
(https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1050,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/126/871/659/original/7f1f12be28b779e2.jpg)
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Never able to see your media.gab posts.
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Never able to see your media.gab posts.
Have you tried clicking on the links?
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Duh. My point is when I do click I get a Not Allowed to See type response.
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Duh. My point is when I do click I get a Not Allowed to See type response.
Is this new? Anyone else having this problem?
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/02/massive-5-acre-fire-breaks-kissimmee-florida-warehouse-storing-plastic-plant-pots-flames-two-stories-high-residents-breathing-issues-told-stay-inside/
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https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1627093225579360258
Would it look different than what we are seeing now?
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You make a good point here that sabotage need not be limited to food supply.
That said, I'm thinking sabotage issues will organize better in the Homeland Security thread than here and I now change the subject heading in that thread to so reflect.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11775153/Supermarkets-ration-fruit-veg-shelves-supply-shortage.html
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11775153/Supermarkets-ration-fruit-veg-shelves-supply-shortage.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uk-rationing-vegetables-its-all-about-normalization
The new normal.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11775153/Supermarkets-ration-fruit-veg-shelves-supply-shortage.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/uk-rationing-vegetables-its-all-about-normalization
The new normal.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/academics-call-wwii-style-rationing-food-and-fuel-stop-climate-change
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Food security. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on Thursday with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. Top of the agenda was food security. Putin outlined Russia’s approach to the deals to allow Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea and the export of fertilizer from Russia to international markets. Countries dependent on Ukrainian supplies are concerned about the future of the grain deal, which expires on March 18. Egypt’s Ministry of Internal Trade recently estimated that current wheat stocks could meet domestic demand for four and a half months.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/tyson-foods-shut-two-us-chicken-plants-with-nearly-1700-workers-2023-03-14/
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6wZXosAcwo
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkiMn-CzL1o
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaHxRStxL2w&t=83s
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Can you guys see this?
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023_SR_Food-Water.pdf?utm_source=GPF+Customers&utm_campaign=d259593752-20230405_PL_Food_Water_Crisis_SR&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa39571b29-d259593752-264975290&mc_cid=d259593752&mc_eid=415e14f76b
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Yes
Can you guys see this?
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/2023_SR_Food-Water.pdf?utm_source=GPF+Customers&utm_campaign=d259593752-20230405_PL_Food_Water_Crisis_SR&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fa39571b29-d259593752-264975290&mc_cid=d259593752&mc_eid=415e14f76b
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https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/mass-casualty-incident-declared-after-explosion-at-dairy-farm-in-dimmitt-texas-nearly-20000-cattle-die-video/
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Daily Memo: Future of Black Sea Grain Deal,
Moscow is signaling it may not extend the agreement past May.
By: Geopolitical Futures
In jeopardy. The future of the Black Sea grain deal, which facilitates the shipment of Ukrainian grain to global markets, is in doubt. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said extension of the agreement beyond May 18 is contingent on making progress on five points: reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the SWIFT banking system; resuming supplies to Russia of agricultural equipment, spare parts and services; lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance and the ban on access to ports; restoring the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline; and unblocking foreign assets and accounts owned by Russian companies in the food and fertilizer business. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said prospects for an extension “are not so good.” Russia remains one of the world's most important suppliers of grain, especially wheat.
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https://legalinsurrection.com/2023/05/eu-approves-dutch-governments-plan-to-shutter-farms-forced-sales-not-ruled-out/
HT to our GM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQUgJ4Te6Bc
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https://michaelyon.locals.com/upost/3939597/see-a-pattern
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/epic-collapse-egg-prices-shown-one-chart?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1498
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Some relevant comments on the dam sabotage affecting food supply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlrUkIRCSWI
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https://en-volve.com/2023/06/08/there-are-now-250-out-of-control-fires-in-canada-heres-why-some-say-its-all-planned/
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https://en-volve.com/2023/06/08/there-are-now-250-out-of-control-fires-in-canada-heres-why-some-say-its-all-planned/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/06/09/canadian-wildfires-climate-lockdowns-begin/
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Not really sabotage of food supply here (https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=404.2800 would be better) and the theories about skullduggery are intuitively unpersuasive for me. For me, if sabotage, then the simplest (Occam's Razor) would be that fifth columnists were at work.
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Not really sabotage of food supply here (https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=404.2800 would be better) and the theories about skullduggery are intuitively unpersuasive for me. For me, if sabotage, then the simplest (Occam's Razor) would be that fifth columnists were at work.
Working for whom?
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https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/01/17/whistleblower-reveals-who-he-believes-was-responsible-for-fires-at-u-s-food-plants/#more-291300
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Not really sabotage of food supply here (https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=404.2800 would be better) and the theories about skullduggery are intuitively unpersuasive for me. For me, if sabotage, then the simplest (Occam's Razor) would be that fifth columnists were at work.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021AFF0054-001739
It's ok, lots of bugs for people to eat!
NOTE: Yes, it's an old PR release, just pointing out that wildfires seriously impact agriculture.
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Not really sabotage of food supply here (https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=404.2800 would be better) and the theories about skullduggery are intuitively unpersuasive for me. For me, if sabotage, then the simplest (Occam's Razor) would be that fifth columnists were at work.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2021AFF0054-001739
It's ok, lots of bugs for people to eat!
NOTE: Yes, it's an old PR release, just pointing out that wildfires seriously impact agriculture.
https://everythinggp.com/2023/05/10/dunes-west-wildfire-update-local-farmers-called-to-disc-or-seed-land-canadian-military-arrives/
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Fifth columnists for whom?
Many possibilities. The Chinese? The Russians? The Iranians? Jihadis?
Test runs for something bigger? Or just simply ramping up with disruption after disruption?
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Fifth columnists for whom?
Many possibilities. The Chinese? The Russians? The Iranians? Jihadis?
Test runs for something bigger? Or just simply ramping up with disruption after disruption?
Don't forget elements from the FUSA feral government and Soviet Canuckistan.
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https://en-volve.com/2023/06/08/there-are-now-250-out-of-control-fires-in-canada-heres-why-some-say-its-all-planned/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/06/09/canadian-wildfires-climate-lockdowns-begin/
https://twitter.com/markmaycot/status/1667451131490979845
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https://en-volve.com/2023/06/08/there-are-now-250-out-of-control-fires-in-canada-heres-why-some-say-its-all-planned/
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/06/09/canadian-wildfires-climate-lockdowns-begin/
https://twitter.com/markmaycot/status/1667451131490979845
https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=852,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/140/216/741/original/b81876f2985bbdaa.png
(https://media.gab.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=852,quality=100,fit=scale-down/system/media_attachments/files/140/216/741/original/b81876f2985bbdaa.png)
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/media-blames-climate-change-for-canadian-wildfires-despite-arrest-of-multiple-arsonists/?utm_source=popular
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kansas-wheat-harvest-will-be-smallest-1957-and-us-corn-being-absolutely-devastated-drought
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kansas-wheat-harvest-will-be-smallest-1957-and-us-corn-being-absolutely-devastated-drought
https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/wef-orders-us-govt-to-forcibly-seize
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!!!
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The Implications of Russia’s Exit From the Black Sea Grain Deal
10 MIN READJul 17, 2023 | 22:48 GMT
Russia's decision to leave the Black Sea grain deal nearly a year after it was signed will strain its relations with Turkey, further imperil Ukraine's war-torn economy and elevate global food prices, with poorer countries in the Global South being hit hardest. On July 17, Russia's foreign ministry announced the country would leave the agreement that has helped bring Ukrainian grain to the world's markets over the past year. As part of its withdrawal from the deal, Russia said it would no longer guarantee the safety of ships transiting the maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea. It also said that the Joint Coordination Center, which had monitored the deal's implementation from Istanbul, would be disbanded. Russia claimed it decided to leave because its demands for extending the deal had not been met. But the announcement also came hours after an apparent Ukrainian maritime drone strike damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge linking Russia to Crimea. The attack fueled speculation about the extent to which the Ukrainian strike played a role in Russia's withdrawal from the grain export deal, though Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has denied the incident factored into Moscow's decision.
On July 22, 2022, Russian and Ukrainian officials each signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations allowing the export of grain from select Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, in exchange for a memorandum of understanding aiming to facilitate shipments of grain and fertilizers from Russia to world markets.
In March, Russia's U.N. ambassador named five ''systemic problems'' that needed to be resolved to allow the continuation of the grain deal: returning the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) to the SWIFT payment system; a resumption of supplies to Russia of agricultural machinery and spare parts; lifting restrictions on insurance and access to ports for Russian ships and cargo; unblocking accounts and financial activities of Russian fertilizer companies; and the resumption of an ammonia pipeline from the Russian city of Togliatti to the Ukrainian city of Odesa (the pipeline was damaged on June 7 but has not been in operation since the war began in February 2022). Russian officials explicitly left open the possibility of Russia returning to the deal, but indicated that progress toward the satisfaction of the above demands would have to be met first.
Moscow's frustration with the deal had been growing amid pressure from Russian nationalists who argued it was not in Russia's interests. Russia's abandonment of the deal is in part motivated by domestic political calculations. Over the past year, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian authorities have struggled to make a compelling case to the Russian people about why the deal was needed — mainly claiming that it would benefit Russia's relations with foreign partners in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, which worried about agricultural price spikes. But this message failed to resonate, as Russian think tanks, state television and independent far-right bloggers regularly questioned whether the deal was ever in Russia's interest, and if it was, whether it remained so. Many of these skeptics saw the agreement as providing significant hard foreign currency flows to help Kyiv's cash-strapped economy stay afloat, thereby reducing financial costs that would otherwise have to be shouldered by the West. They also argued that the West would never observe the part of the deal pertaining to easing Russia's own agricultural exports because neither the United States nor the European Union, which were not parties to the agreement, showed signs they'd be willing to ease their sanctions regime on Moscow in exchange for the continuation of the grain deal. The Kremlin was likely keen not to further alienate these nationalist hard-liners who had long been calling for Russia's withdrawal — especially on the back of the Wagner Group's recent armed revolt.
According to the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, Ukraine's agriculture industry generated 9% of the country's GDP in 2022, making it a key economic sector despite the large overall fall in Ukrainian agricultural exports over the past year amid Russia's invasion. Influential Russian commentators had argued that ending the deal would not only serve a major blow to Ukraine by denying its government significant revenue, but would also exacerbate war fatigue in the West (and in particular Europe) by further elevating food prices.
Prior to last month's Wagner uprising, the Kremlin may have thought that it could point to the significant domestic opposition to the grain deal as a way to increase its leverage in negotiations with the West. But the idea of using domestic opposition to gain greater concessions from the West has become much less attractive following the Wagner mutiny, which has made Moscow all the more hesitant to appear weak by highlighting the risks to the Kremlin of not having full control of domestic narratives opposing its policies.
Global food prices are unlikely to experience as intense and expansive of a shock as they did in spring 2022 in the wake of the deal's collapse, with the effects instead falling on poorer and more vulnerable countries. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)'s global food price index reached a record high in July 2022 — the same month the export deal was originally signed, which was some four months after Russia began blockading Ukrainian wheat exports as part of its invasion. The global supply shocks brought on by the sudden loss of Ukrainian grain caused food prices to rise across the world in the spring of 2022. But the impact was particularly acute in poorer countries in the Global South, as well as among countries where Russia maintained defense and diplomatic ties (including Turkey, Egypt, India and nations throughout sub-Saharan Africa). The collapse of the grain deal following Russia's withdrawal will likely see price pains re-emerge in these countries. Food shortages risk worsening in Africa, in particular, as the agreement had reportedly seen Ukraine double its grain exports to African countries over the past six months, according to comments recently made by Turkey's transport minister. But global food prices are unlikely to reach the levels seen before the agreement was signed, as the loss of Ukrainian grain exports will this time be offset by above-average harvests expected from countries like Brazil and Argentina. The deal's collapse is expected to have a modest overall impact on global food prices thanks to these harvests — especially in the developed world, where stronger currencies will allow countries to affordably import food staples from abroad.
The U.N. food price index declined 11.6% year-on-year after Russia and Ukraine signed the grain deal on July 22, 2022, enabling Ukrainian grain to reach global markets. But a sign of the declining impact of the deal came in the spring of 2023, as Ukraine reported fewer exports because of increased Russian inspections of Ukrainian grain ships. These inspections also resulted in the complete collapse of exports from Ukraine's Yuzhny port, which accounted for up to a third of exports previously. Despite this slowdown, the FAO continued to report declining food prices.
Global climate conditions fueled improved harvest conditions, with El Nino bringing extra rain to places like Argentina, Brazil, and southern and western United States, where harvests in major agricultural hubs like California and Texas would benefit.
The grain deal also helped support the United Nations' World Food Program, which brought much-needed relief to countries like Somalia, Ethiopia and Yemen. The program was already facing funding shortfalls caused by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation and commodity shocks caused by the war in Ukraine.
Moscow's withdrawal from the grain deal will make Western countries even less likely to facilitate Russia's agricultural exports, forcing Moscow to consider unattractive military operations to stop Ukraine from exporting its own grain. Upon exiting the grain deal, Russia lost significant leverage over the West. As a result, the European Union will cease its efforts to connect a subsidiary of the Russian Agricultural Bank to the Brussels-based SWIFT international payments system, which means Russia will continue to struggle to export its agricultural goods. To compensate for this loss, Russia will be tempted to intervene militarily to prevent Ukraine from continuing to export its grain by sea. However, there are few attractive ways to do this, as attempting to reimpose a full-scale blockade would put Russia's naval and air assets at high risk. Furthermore, directly sinking non-Ukranianian civilian vessels would damage Russia's image and could spark a military confrontation with the West. Therefore, Russia will likely instead seek to degrade Ukraine's civilian infrastructure by stepping up strikes on port and transit routes. But the effectiveness of such strikes would be questionable and could cause Moscow to waste its precious precision munitions.
While Ukraine's overland export capability has expanded since 2022, Ukraine can export only a small portion of its grain overland, meaning it will be highly motivated to continue sea exports. Kyiv will work with the United Nations and insurers to continue coverage for any ships willing to continue using the grain corridor, meaning that in theory, some sea exports could continue, further reducing the strain on global prices.
Russian naval and air assets have rarely sortied into the Black Sea en masse since the sinking of the missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, in April 2022, largely moving in small groups to avoid Ukraine's anti-air and anti-shipping missile capabilities.
The end of the grain deal may also stoke fears of grain shortages and panic from Russia's partners in the Global South while causing minor harm to bilateral relations with Turkey. Moscow will face an uphill battle assuring partners in Asia, Africa and the Middle East that it can replace any loss of Ukrainian grain from the global market. But Moscow likely calculated that a relatively modest price shock will allow it to avoid significant backlash from partners in these regions. Moscow's first test will be on July 26, when African leaders — many of whom had urged Putin in person to stay in the grain deal just a month earlier — are in Moscow for a Russia-Africa summit. Relations between Moscow and Ankara will also grow more strained, as the end of the grain deal will exacerbate food price inflation in Turkey, as well as hurt Ankara's diplomatic clout and public support for its government at home. However, following the May reelection of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom Putin has a close working relationship, Moscow likely believes that any worsening of bilateral relations would be inconsequential, with Ankara seeking to preserve their close contacts even as it explores options to respond to Moscow.
After renewing the grain deal for the first time on Nov. 2, 2022, Putin said Russia could still leave the deal but would not obstruct Ukraine's grain deliveries to Turkey ''in any case,'' demonstrating the importance of the deal to Russia-Turkey relations. But recent moves by Ankara likely angered the Kremlin, including Turkey's recent support for Sweden's NATO bid, the release of Ukrainian commanders that were supposed to stay in Turkey under a prisoner exchange, explicit support for Ukraine's NATO aspirations, and a new agreement to build Turkish military hardware in Ukraine.
Russian media has speculated that the Turkish navy could play a role in securing grain exports from Ukraine. But NATO's involvement in securing the grain corridor remains highly unlikely given that one of the alliance's primary stated goals is avoiding direct conflict with Russia.
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https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/tornado-damage-to-pfizer-plant-could-trigger-nationwide-drug-shortages-health-officials-5414079?utm_source=Morningbrief&src_src=Morningbrief&utm_campaign=mb-2023-07-23&src_cmp=mb-2023-07-23&utm_medium=email
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July 24, 2023
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Much Hangs in the Balance of the Grain Deal
Russia’s regional influence and monetary policy depend on the outcome.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
On July 21, Russia's central bank increased its key interest rate to 8.5 percent, citing inflationary risks from a tight labor market and strong consumer demand. This marks the first time the bank has lifted rates in over a year, and more may be in the offing. The move comes days after Russia withdrew from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal because, Moscow claims, it failed to live up to its promises, which included reconnecting a Russian bank to the international SWIFT system, the reopening of an ammonia pipeline and allowing Russian ships to dock in international ports.
The grain deal was established several months into the war in Ukraine to make sure Russia and Ukraine – two of the world’s most important grain producers – could safely bring their products to market and thus help keep global food prices down. The Black Sea is vital in this regard, accounting for roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports and 20 percent of global corn exports. But Russia has begun to lose interest in the agreement. Most of its grain exports are bound for Asia and, increasingly, Latin America, and therefore don’t need to pass through the Black Sea. (The recently inaugurated North-South corridor has become the first step in a global network of ports and routes that enables Russia to bypass the Black Sea entirely.) Meanwhile, Moscow has reason to curb exports. Doing so would protect domestic consumers, correct harvesting imbalances due to environmental factors and relieve pressure on the ruble.
This last point is critical. Propping up the ruble is the reason Russia needs to keep the grain deal going and why connecting the government-controlled agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT system is the key Russian demand. Increasingly, Russia relies on the Chinese yuan rather than on Western currencies. According to the central bank's latest financial stability review, the share of the yuan in the exchange market rose to roughly 40 percent, and in foreign trade operations reached 25 percent for exports and 31 percent for imports in May 2023. Along with the increase in the share of the yuan, the share of the ruble in foreign trade also continued to grow, reaching 39 percent of exports and more than 30 percent of imports.
This has complicated things with traditional Russian allies. Russia’s prolific use of the yuan, a currency that’s not freely convertible, has essentially made its monetary policy dependent on Beijing while contributing to domestic inflation. Meanwhile, recent news reports suggest a weak ruble has caused problems in Central Asia, where Russia has an imperative to help keep populations safe and stable.
Dynamics of U.S. Dollar/Russian Ruble Exchange Rate
(click to enlarge)
All of this makes Moscow want to control the flow of dollars and euros – both of which are convertible currencies. While there are private Western banks working in Russia, and though there are a few Russian banks that are still connected to SWIFT, they are not controlled by the Russian government. Motivated by profit, these banks will keep the flow coming in and make use of it for their own purposes. Increasing the interest rate is pretty much all Moscow can do to address inflation. Hence why it wants to reconnect its public banks to SWIFT via the grain deal.
However, Moscow could not persuade the West to accept its terms, and it has given the West a three-month ultimatum to do so. To show that it still has some leverage in the talks, Moscow has upped its attacks on the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Mykolaiv and Chornomorsk. (Most recently, according to the Ukrainian media, the ports of Ismail and Reni, both on the Danube, were also hit - marking a first attack on ports inside the country.) It announced that it would treat all ships going to Ukrainian ports across the Black Sea as carriers of military cargoes, called for new military drills and has declared that it has the right to block the exclusive economic zones of Black Sea region states – even those in NATO.
Black Sea Major Ports
(click to enlarge)
So far, Moscow has blocked the Ukrainian coast and, according to local sources, part of the Bulgarian economic zone – all under the pretext of holding naval exercises. By claiming it suspects all cargo going toward Ukrainian ports of carrying military cargo in support of Kyiv, Russia says it has the right to inspect ships passing through the Black Sea. This is likely why Russia blocked the perimeter within the Bulgarian economic zone: so its warships could stop commercial ships for inspection, considering the perimeter is nearby the Western coast of the Black Sea, where naval commercial traffic is still working from and into the Bosporus. It is unclear what Russia would do should a commercial ship not stop for inspection.
Russian Naval Exercise Perimeters, Jan 1 - Feb 17, 2022
(click to enlarge)
This points to a growing danger to essential Black Sea trade routes, which raises the prospect of global market instability for everything from oil to foodstuffs to fertilizers. Wheat prices have been on an upward trend for nearly a week, and the shipping and insurance industries are trying to remove the uncertainty in the market. The Lloyd's of London insurance market has already placed the Black Sea region on its high-risk list. However, on July 18, Lloyd’s insurer Ascot said the insurance facility is on pause, leaving open the possibility that Russia could re-enter the grain deal. It’s unclear what the insurer thinks after days of heavy attacks on grain facilities in Odesa and the other ports, but it is obvious that war risk premiums are increasing by the day for all shipping corridors in the Black Sea. Russia’s decision has effectively reinstalled the blockade and turned the Black Sea into a heightened-risk war zone.
For Ukraine, this has forced a massive amount of grain to be transported by river, road and rail – all of which are difficult and expensive. Right now, the primary alternative route for the grain corridor from Odesa to the Bosporus is the Romanian port of Constanta, which, like the rest of Romanian infrastructure, has grown only more important since the outset of the war. Ukrainian grains are shipped to the mouth of the Danube and, from Sulina, the load is transported further into Constanta (through the Danube and its channels) and then taken either by sea, rail or road into the market. Despite the fact that Romania modernized its infrastructure over the past year – about 2.5 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain now transit through the country, from 300,000 metric tons in March 2022 – logistical problems abound due to limited shipping and storage capacity.
While limited, Romania could still implement several enhancements to expand the flow from Ukraine and partially compensate for the collapse of the grain deal. At the moment, because of the risk posed by undersea mines and the lack of night signals on Sulina Danube Channel, ships are sailing only during the day. Furthermore, the average weight for vessels passing through Sulina is around 5,600 metric tons. By introducing night sailing, increasing vessel capacity to 15,000 metric tons, increasing use of the railway network and increasing use of the Galati port facilities on the Danube, Romania could handle up to 3.5 million metric tons more of Ukrainian grain on average each month. However, because offload capacity will largely remain the same, the result may only be greater congestion. Furthermore, with the annual crop just entering harvesting season, challenges will increase.
Importantly, Russia has reasons to escalate attacks in southern Ukraine independent of the grain deal. Moscow would prefer to reconnect with SWIFT, of course, but flexing its military muscles at a time of perceived weakness is politically valuable too. It shows the Russian people that the military is still capable despite its setbacks, and it shows the West that there are consequences if Moscow doesn’t get its way.
Black Sea Maritime Traffic, October 2022
(click to enlarge)
For its part, the West doesn’t have many viable responses. Romania and Bulgaria have improved coastal anti-ship missile capabilities, but they are still behind the curve. Delays in U.S. defense deliveries have put more pressure on coastal states in the immediate proximity of Ukraine. Turkey has an advanced naval capability, and in theory it could partner with Romania and Bulgaria (all NATO member states) to provide an armed escort for commercial ships in the Black Sea. Romania and Bulgaria are coordinating on minesweeping along the coastline, and NATO could also provide shore support. However, NATO is a military organization with a political component, much of it driven by the United States. Black Sea countries have advocated that the U.S. adopt a Black Sea strategy in the hope that NATO might follow suit. These kinds of strategies take time to develop.
Black Sea Maritime Traffic, July 2023
(click to enlarge)
Russia will use that time to its advantage. Hitting Black Sea shorelines and Ukrainian port infrastructure serves the long-term strategic goal of Russia: to destroy the most productive sector Ukraine has left, agriculture, which makes up about 40 percent of Ukraine's GDP. There are about 18 million metric tons of grain stored in the Ukrainian silos from last year –more than half of annual production – because it couldn’t get them out. The grain deal helped, of course, as did the creation of new routes through Romania and Poland, but it hasn’t been enough.
The blockade and the Russian attacks on port infrastructure make it unlikely that Ukraine will be able to move its production to the market soon either. The end result that Russia is looking to achieve is that Ukraine doesn’t participate in the international grain market this year or in the foreseeable future. Its inability to move surplus grain to the market has already killed much of the Ukrainian grain business this year.
With no industry to rely on (most was located in eastern areas now occupied by Russia) and no functioning agriculture, there isn’t much of a Ukrainian economy left. Even if the West promises to help Ukraine rebuild it, there is nothing easy in the process of socio-economic reconstruction. For Russia, making things hard in the long term is a safe way to bring Kyiv under its influence. Russia is likely to have problems of its own, so its pressure on Kyiv might be less aggressive than it would like, but its current actions are designed to be able to pressure Kyiv later, even if it loses the kinetic war.
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For some reason I have LR filed under the heading of "Sketchy guy" (anti-semitism) so caveat lector:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/08/no_author/global-elites-secret-plot-against-food/
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September 6, 2023
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Three Seas Bloc Could Alleviate Ukraine’s Grain Crisis
A regional forum to promote connectivity could overcome Europe’s increasingly fraught politics.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
Russia appears to have moved on from the Black Sea grain initiative, notwithstanding this week’s meeting between the Russian and Turkish presidents on the deal. Moscow’s new strategy – to eliminate Kyiv’s ability to export grains and other goods from any Black Sea or Danube ports – was on display mere hours before the Sochi meeting, when Russian drones rained down on the Danube River port of Izmail in southern Odesa. Since Russia withdrew from the grain deal in July, its drone and missile strikes have destroyed nearly 220,000 metric tons of Ukrainian grain and inflicted lasting damage on port infrastructure, according to Kyiv. In other words, Ukraine is unlikely to heed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s advice to “soften its approach” in order to revive the agreement.
Russia’s attacks threaten to cut off Ukraine from cheap Black Sea transport routes and pressure the European Union to provide alternate land and water routes. However, the redirection of tens of millions of tons of low-cost Ukrainian grains through Europe has already overwhelmed local markets and transport infrastructure and aggravated EU farmers. The resulting grain glut threatens to widen rifts within the EU, but an informal grouping of a dozen Eastern European countries could alleviate the crisis while advancing regional economic convergence and integration.
The Growing Cost of Support
In the early days of the war, the European Union opted to permit Ukrainian grains to enter the single market duty-free and quota-free. By November 2022, five governments on the frontline of the Ukrainian grain deluge (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) appealed to Brussels to do something to help their farmers. Unbound by the EU’s stringent quality standards, Ukrainian producers and traders were dumping grain in these countries, suppressing local prices. In April 2023, the five EU states in question came to an agreement with Brussels to support their farmers and ban imports of Ukrainian grains (though transit through their territory was still permitted).
Extended once already, the ban expires on Sept. 15, but Poland and Hungary have pledged another extension – in contravention of the EU’s common trade rules – with or without the European Commission’s consent. Meanwhile, Ukraine has said it will sue the EU and member states at the World Trade Organization if they proceed with the import ban extension. (Ukraine previously accused Poland of violating WTO rules with its farm subsidies.) Such an appeal would have no short-term effect, but it would trigger lengthy and complex negotiations that could be damaging to the EU in other areas. Specifically, the EU needs flexibility and unity to make the most of the global trade restructuring that is underway, but its attempts to strike new trade agreements could be hampered if it is simultaneously locked in a high-profile dispute with Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Europe is locked in a debate over the future of the so-called Ukraine Facility, a pot of EU money intended to support Ukraine’s public finances in the short term and help fund the country’s reconstruction and modernization down the line. Politically, the program symbolizes Europe’s support of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression and along its path toward EU membership. The European Commission is seeking to raise 50 billion euros ($54 billion) for the facility from member states. On top of this, the EU executive is asking for another nearly 50 billion euros for migration, industrial subsidies, interest on pandemic recovery debt, staffing and contingencies. Both sums are part of a revision of the bloc’s 2024-27 budget and require the approval of the European Parliament as well as member states, where one veto can derail the process.
With European Parliament elections coming in June 2024, in addition to several important elections within the member states, debates on increasing the EU budget will likely be fierce. Already the eurozone is in a technical recession, meaning its voters – geographically the farthest from the Ukrainian frontline – will have little appetite to pony up even more cash to support Kyiv. The ensuing debates could exacerbate the resurgence of populism in Europe.
An Off-the-Shelf Solution
The outcome of these budget negotiations could also influence how the EU responds to Ukraine’s need for alternative transit routes. Last year, the commission established so-called solidarity lanes to streamline border procedures and expand infrastructure and capacity, including 220 million euros spent to improve infrastructure in Germany, Poland and Romania and another 250 million euros on border links between Ukraine, Moldova and the EU. Brussels also commissioned a study to integrate the Ukrainian and Moldovan railway systems with the EU’s.
In spite of this spending, logjams remain. Because of proximity and the lower cost of waterborne shipping, most of Ukraine’s grain has been shipped through Romanian waterways, where port congestion is a persistent problem. It’s not just Ukrainian produce that is overwhelming infrastructure in Eastern and Southeastern Europe; the war has blocked Asian goods destined for Europe from transiting through Ukrainian land routes, shifting the burden onto the “Middle Corridor” through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and eventually Southeastern Europe.
Any new European infrastructure projects, to be effective, need to be feasible and attractive to investors. The only EU instrument that is not susceptible to election season and involves the business community is the Three Seas Initiative, established in 2016. An informal political forum, the initiative brings together 12 countries that connect the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas. It has the support of the United States, which values its economic and strategic potential. Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. struck a preliminary agreement to provide the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund (established in 2019) with as much as $300 million to finance energy and infrastructure investments.
(click to enlarge)
It is not by chance that, ahead of the Three Seas Initiative Forum to be hosted in Bucharest on Sept. 7, it was announced that Greece will join the grouping. After all, besides intermodal infrastructure, Europe’s most important concern currently is energy security, especially regarding Russia. Until Romanian Black Sea offshore fields can start production around 2027, the U.S. is using Greek (and Polish) ports to supply liquefied natural gas to the region. In addition to hosting an LNG terminal, the Greek port of Alexandroupolis is linked to Romania’s port of Constanta via a newly renovated road.
The EU is split over political debates and still lacks effective crisis management tools, but flexible platforms such as the Three Seas Initiative could play a more important role in countering Russia’s strategy and supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction. Investment in the region not only would benefit Ukraine but also would support post-pandemic recovery and economic convergence among some of the poorer EU and NATO countries. However, success requires not just private sector appeal but also greater political appreciation of the challenges and opportunities that the war in Ukraine poses. After all, the Three Seas Initiative countries form the new containment line between the West and the East. The war is closer to them than it is to Western Europe or most of the eurozone. So is Russia, whose hybrid warfare to complicate or block Europe’s responses will not stop.
At first, the war revived NATO and to a degree united the EU. Those effects appear to be fading as the economic costs accrue, especially for the EU. This wasn’t unexpected; Central and Eastern Europe are naturally more concerned about the war in Ukraine than the rest of the Continent. Divisions old and new are appearing. Even the potential solutions appear to bypass the EU and entail cooperation among a smaller group.
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Fertilizers at risk. War-related disruption at Israel’s Port of Ashdod, located just north of Gaza, is putting about 3 percent of the global potash supply in danger. In addition, were Iran to be drawn into the conflict, it could jeopardize supplies of nitrogen-based fertilizers, since Iran is an important nitrogen exporter. Global fertilizer prices cooled this year after surging last year because of the war in Ukraine, and renewed concerns over supply could drive up prices for food and other goods.
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https://resistthemainstream.com/attempted-ohio-train-derailments-part-of-alleged-terrorist-plot-court-docs/?utm_source=newsletter2
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November 17, 2023
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Drought Disrupts the Panama Canal
Low water levels have caused problems before, but the issue is becoming more frequent.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Panama Canal Drought
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The idea of the Panama Canal suffering from water shortages may seem counterintuitive considering that it spans just 50 miles between two oceans. However, the functioning of the canal’s lock system relies on freshwater supplies coming primarily from the manmade lakes Gatun and Alajuela. Due to a lack of rain, the Panama Canal Authority this year has implemented several water conservation and canal restriction measures to accommodate lower water levels, and bids to secure passage have hit record highs.
Droughts have threatened to disrupt the canal’s operations at other times in recent memory, namely 2019-20 and 2014-16. What is concerning is that droughts have been occurring more frequently. Reduced traffic at the canal is expected to last for at least another four months, sparking concerns about supply chains and inflation.
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Important— I went to Groningen, NL in March warning they may shut Groningen gas field. Groningen is biggest gas field in Europe. And now they shut Groningen. This is in part to create famine by shutting down nitrogenous fertilizer production. Now they going for USA: https://foxnews.com/politics/un-delegates-circulate-petition-shut-down-us-natural-gas-production-global-climate-summit-kicks-off
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anuary 3, 2024
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What Red Sea Disruption Means for Global Supply Chains
It’s far from business as usual for global shipping.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
The Red Sea is a vital waterway for commercial shipping that connects markets in Europe, Asia and Africa. In recent weeks, however, it has been the site of multiple attacks launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in support of Hamas in its war with Israel. The group claims to target only ships leaving from or going to Israel, but others with no clear Israeli connections have been attacked while sailing through the sea. On Dec. 18, the U.S. announced that it would set up a task force to strengthen security in the area. But as Washington calls for more governments to contribute to the effort, the Houthis say the attacks will continue.
The Red Sea is a sort of junction between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that separates the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa. It’s connected to the Indian Ocean through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, one of the most critical chokepoints in the world. Three countries occupy the coastline along the strait: Eritrea, Djibouti and Yemen. Djibouti hosts military bases from several foreign countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China and Saudi Arabia, while Eritrea maintains close ties with China and Russia. (It voted recently against a U.N. resolution to stop the conflict in Ukraine.) Yemen, meanwhile, is engulfed in a brutal, eight-year war between the internationally recognized government, supported by a Saudi-led military coalition, and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The Red Sea
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In 2014, Houthi insurgents overthrew Yemen’s government. The following year, the Saudis led a coalition of mainly Gulf Arab states to oust the Houthis – which was ultimately unsuccessful. The country has remained divided ever since, with the Houthis controlling much of the north, the government holding the seat of power from the southern city of Aden, and several other armed factions pursuing their own agendas. Peace negotiations have been held but have so far failed to result in a deal.
Iran’s partnership with the Houthis, including its supply of weapons, has grown deeper since 2014. But this isn’t a typical patron-client relationship. The Houthis are financially self-sufficient, earning revenue through taxation, customs charges and service fees, as well as smuggling operations. They’re seeking international recognition as a legitimate military and political force in Yemen – a goal they can’t accomplish solely with Tehran’s help. Yet they’re undeniably a proxy of the Iranian regime, which has supported them throughout the Saudi-led campaign. The group is thus an unpredictable force and major source of uncertainty, especially since the war in Israel began.
The danger to shipping through the Red Sea adds another layer to global economic challenges in 2024. An estimated 10-12 percent of global trade passes through the sea. While the Bab el-Mandeb lays on its southern tip, the Suez Canal sits on its northern edge as a pathway to the eastern Mediterranean. The 120-mile-long (190-kilometer-long) artificial waterway runs along the Isthmus of Suez, a small strip of land that connects the African and Asian continents. Approximately 14 percent of global oil exports pass through the canal, while more than 30 percent of global container traffic is conducted through the Red Sea.
Since the Houthi attacks began, some ships have tried to broadcast their neutrality in an effort to pass safely through the route. Others are now avoiding the area altogether. Oil giant BP recently stopped all Red Sea shipping operations. European shipping companies Hapag-Lloyd and MSC, as well as Japanese shipping firms Mitsui O.S.K. Lines and Nippon Yusen, are also avoiding the sea. On Tuesday, Denmark's Maersk announced that it would divert its container ships away from the Red Sea following an attack over the weekend on one of its vessels – though it had said late last month that it would resume transit through the region after the U.S. announced the establishment of a naval force to protect commercial shipping. France's CMA CGM said on its website that it would increase its container shipping costs from Asia to the Mediterranean region by up to 100 percent as of Jan. 15 compared to Jan. 1.
Either way, international shipping has taken a hit, fueling new concerns over the global economy. The most obvious worry is that the situation could cause a spike in energy prices, given that the region is a major exporter of oil to markets around the world. According to S&P Global, 24 percent of the vessels redirected from the Suez Canal since Dec. 15 were crude oil tankers. Bulk carriers accounted for about 35 percent and container ships were another 24 percent.
Approximately 90 percent of the oil that flows through the Bab el-Mandeb comes from the Persian Gulf and is destined for Europe and Africa. The other 10 percent is oil from the Horn of Africa. The Red Sea is also a transit route for roughly 80 percent of Russia’s petroleum destined for Asian markets and 8 percent of the global liquified natural gas trade. In the first 11 months of 2023, 42 percent of Russian-loaded crude and products traveling through the Red Sea.
Bab el-Mandeb Transit Calls: October-December 2023
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However, the situation isn’t as problematic for Moscow as it may appear; none of the attacks in December targeted Russian shipments, and Russia will benefit from the increased oil prices that will likely result from higher transport costs. The price of carrying oil through the Red Sea has jumped by about 25 percent, while the alternate route along the Cape of Good Hope is not just longer but also 10 percent more expensive than before the attacks. One industry analyst estimates that rerouting vessels destined for Europe from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope could raise shipping costs by 80 percent.
Europe stands to lose the most from higher energy prices. As it tries to transition away from Russian energy, it’s relying more heavily on LNG. Most of the LNG flowing through the Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal is headed for Europe. The good news so far is that Qatari LNG supplies to Europe continue to pass through the Red Sea and Suez Canal without any diversions. European gas prices increased by more than 10 percent after BP ceased shipments via the Red Sea on Dec. 18, but prices have declined since then. European underground gas storage facilities are now 97.89 percent full, and the winter so far has been mild. However, the situation is still fluid as the Houthis continue to launch more assaults.
Supply chains for other sectors have also experienced disruptions. Given that the Red Sea is used for transporting commodities and other resources between large markets, disruptions in traffic here can have serious economic effects. This is especially the case at the moment because a severe drought has reduced traffic via the Panama Canal, causing U.S. grain shipments destined for Asia to take lengthy detours through the Suez Canal and southern Africa. The number of vessels passing through the Panama Canal daily has fallen by nearly 40 percent, resulting in significantly longer wait times – and longer journeys, which directly influences freight costs and product pricing.
The Panama Canal Authority said on Dec. 15 that it would increase daily transit through the canal from 22 vessels to 24 in January due to increased rainfall and water levels. But even this figure is well below normal volumes. Rerouting though the southern tip of Africa is also costly. A ship traveling from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal would require an extra 15 days to make the journey via the Cape of Good Hope, plus additional time to navigate new operational costs, insurance and legal frameworks.
Shipping companies are now not only diverting their vessels from the Red Sea but will likely have to renegotiate insurance contracts due to the added risks. The lengthy alternate journeys are straining shipping capacity during the peak shipping season for U.S. grain – most of which was traveling through the Panama Canal but is now also rerouted because of the drought – aggravating the situation even more. The uncertainty will undoubtedly translate into higher costs and, if this continues, even higher inflation. It’s also exacerbating the global supply chain disruptions that were already in effect throughout last year, making calls for deglobalization even louder.
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Pasting this here from the Agriculture thread:
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/gun-police-against-unarmed-farmers-the-new-siege-of-paris/
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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/02/a_tale_of_two_canals.html
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Good point pairing the supply chain issues of Panama and Suez at the same time.
I would add the Chinese capabilities at both ends of the Panama Canal, and note MY's point about the Chinese military age males having way stations as they move north from the Darien Gap to the American non-border.
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February 23, 2024
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European Farmer Protests
With European elections looming, politicians are scrambling to respond to farmers' demands.
By: Geopolitical Futures
European Farmer Protests
(click to enlarge)
Farmer protests have recently surged across Europe, shaking its agricultural heartlands. In Poland, a deep and broadening coalition of farmers is forming against the influx of cheaper, reputedly lower-quality Ukrainian agricultural goods that are threatening their markets. Farmers in the Netherlands were agitated even before the war in Ukraine, triggered by Dutch government plans to cut nitrogen emissions. In Germany, the last straw was when Berlin, under intense political pressure to start balancing the budget, suggested axing fuel subsidies for farmers. Taken together, European farmers are facing rising costs against falling prices; they fear that pro-climate laws will lead to their disenfranchisement; and they feel they are suffering disproportionately from Europe's approach to supporting Ukraine's wrecked economy.
The approaching European Parliament elections in June have started to energize the European Commission and national governments, which lately have been quick to make concessions to get tractors off the highways. But the farmers are not satisfied, and opposition parties – most notably those from the far right – are hoping to benefit, starting this summer.
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February 23, 2024
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European Farmer Protests
With European elections looming, politicians are scrambling to respond to farmers' demands.
By: Geopolitical Futures
European Farmer Protests
(click to enlarge)
Farmer protests have recently surged across Europe, shaking its agricultural heartlands. In Poland, a deep and broadening coalition of farmers is forming against the influx of cheaper, reputedly lower-quality Ukrainian agricultural goods that are threatening their markets. Farmers in the Netherlands were agitated even before the war in Ukraine, triggered by Dutch government plans to cut nitrogen emissions. In Germany, the last straw was when Berlin, under intense political pressure to start balancing the budget, suggested axing fuel subsidies for farmers. Taken together, European farmers are facing rising costs against falling prices; they fear that pro-climate laws will lead to their disenfranchisement; and they feel they are suffering disproportionately from Europe's approach to supporting Ukraine's wrecked economy.
The approaching European Parliament elections in June have started to energize the European Commission and national governments, which lately have been quick to make concessions to get tractors off the highways. But the farmers are not satisfied, and opposition parties – most notably those from the far right – are hoping to benefit, starting this summer.
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(1) LAWMAKER CONCERN GROWING ON MEDICINE SHORTAGES: In a bipartisan letter to the Department of Defense, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) said drug shortages in the U.S. have reached their highest level in ten years and supply chain disruptions due to drug maker quality failures is a growing concern.
According to the letter, in many cases, only a handful of drug companies make a particular generic drug, increasing the risk of widespread supply chain disruptions if even a few companies experience quality or manufacturing issues.
Why It Matters: Lawmakers are growing more concerned over ongoing shortages of key medicines and precursors that are dependent on Chinese and Indian labs and drug makers. A conflict between the U.S. and China, which officials expect as soon as 2027, would likely remove more than half of medicines and precursors from the U.S. market due to supply chain disruptions or Chinese export blocks. – R.C.
(2) GALLAGHER: CHINA WAGING DAILY ECONOMIC WAR ON U.S.: During a House hearing on the Farm Bill, Representative Mike Gallagher (R-WI) said the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is “engaged in economic warfare against the United States daily,” and “agriculture and our critical food supply chains are no exception.”
Former Ambassador to the U.N. Tom Kip said the U.S. is increasingly vulnerable to disruptions from the gradual offshoring of key agricultural pesticides and crop nutrients. China now produces 40% of phosphate and 28% of nitrogen globally.
Why It Matters: U.S. agricultural inputs, like nitrogen fertilizer, are sensitive to supply chain disruptions due to Chinese market share. China would likely block nitrogen and phosphate exports to the U.S. during a conflict, disrupting a U.S. response by crippling critical infrastructure and hitting domestic agriculture production. – R.C.
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(2) TEXAS REPORTS FIRST BIRD FLU JUMP FROM CATTLE TO HUMAN: The Texas Department of State Health Services reported the first human infection of avian influenza (H5N1), which authorities believe was transmitted from cattle infected with H5N1.
“Every single time is a little bit of Russian roulette,” and eventually H5N1 will adapt to spread among humans, former Biden official Ashish Jha said.
Brown University Pandemic Center director Jennifer Nuzzo said authorities have been concerned about H5N1 for more than twenty years, and it is “remarkable” how far across the globe H5N1 has spread over the last year.
Why It Matters: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say the human infection risk is still low, but their assessment could change if more cases of cattle-to-human transmission are discovered. If H5N1 does mutate to allow cattle-to-human and human-to-human transmission, the case fatality rate is the most significant concern. The World Health Organization is tracking global H5N1 human infections, and they say the case fatality rate is above 50%. The situation is still developing but could become a food security threat due to the vulnerability of U.S. food supply chains to biosecurity threats. – R.C.