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2001
Why North Korea Deported Me
By Norbert Vollertsen
AEI.org | June 15, 2005

The authors in the current issue of The American Enterprise magazine paint a sometimes terrifying picture of North Korea. Kim Jong Il?s mad regime has never formally renounced its pledge to swallow up the southern half of the Korean peninsula, even if it takes a devastating conventional war to do it. And its recent nuclear announcements have given citizens of Tokyo?possibly even Los Angeles?cause for serious concern.

It?s clear the United States and the world have to do something to end, or at least control, this potential nuclear nightmare. But the real problem of North Korea goes beyond the crazy bluster of its leaders, the appeasement of the South Koreans, the lack of cooperation from China, and the other subjects discussed in this TAE issue. There?s a human element that sometimes gets lost in the Washington debates. Very few Westerners understand what life is really like for the average North Korean, because the country?s dictatorship keeps all conduits of information and trade sealed as tight as a drum.

I know, because I?ve witnessed the stunning reality of daily existence in the North.
 
In July 1999, I traveled to North Korea as a member of a German medical aid organization offering humanitarian medical assistance.I remained in North Korea for 18 months, and worked in ten different hospitals around the country.
 
Early on during my stay, I was summoned to treat a factory worker who had been badly burned by molten iron. A colleague and I volunteered to donate our own skin tissue for a skin graft?in order to help the patient, and also as a gesture of friendship with ordinary North Koreans. For this action, we were nationally acclaimed by the state-run media and awarded the Friendship Medal, making us the only two Westerners ever to receive this high honor. Along with this recognition came two fringe benefits that would later prove very valuable: a ?VIP? passport, and a driver?s license. These allowed me to travel to many areas of North Korea inaccessible to foreigners, and even to its ordinary citizens.
 
In my role as an emergency doctor, I also visited a number of other medical institutions besides the ten hospitals and three orphanages to which I was assigned. In every locale, I witnessed horrific conditions. There were no bandages, no scalpels, no antibiotics, no operating rooms?only ramshackle wooden beds supporting starving children waiting to die. Doctors used empty beer bottles as vessels for intravenous dripping. Safety razors were used as scalpels. I even witnessed an appendectomy performed without anesthesia. Meanwhile I found out, through my own investigations, about government storehouses and diplomatic shops carrying large stocks of bandages and other medical supplies for privileged classes.
 
There are two worlds in North Korea: One is the world of senior military officers, Communist Party members, and the country?s ruling elite. They enjoy a lavish lifestyle, fancy restaurants, diplomatic shops with European foods, nightclubs, even a casino.
 
The world for ordinary people in North Korea is completely different. In their world, one can see young children, undersized, undernourished, mute, with sunken eyes and skin stretched tight across their faces, wearing uniform blue-and-white-striped pajamas. Anyone who?s seen pictures of Dachau or Auschwitz would find the scene distressingly familiar.
 
Most of the patients in the hospitals suffer from psychosomatic illnesses. They?re worn out by compulsory drills, innumerable parades, mandatory assemblies beginning at the crack of dawn, and constant, droning propaganda. They are tired and at the end of their tether. Clinical depression is rampant. Alcoholism is common. Young adults have no hope, no future. Everywhere you look, people are beset by anxiety.
 
Everyday workers and farmers are starving and dying. Unwarranted arrest and detention are common, and one can only imagine what the conditions are like in the so-called ?reform institutions,? where entire families are imprisoned when any member does or says something to offend the regime. These camps are closed to all foreigners, even to stringently non-confrontational organizations like the International Red Cross. If the main ?medical? diagnosis of North Korea?s sick society is fear and depression brought about by a horrendous government, what is the cure?
 
The only way to rescue the people of North Korea from obscene poverty and hardship is to let the world know the real state of this country. In the fall of 2000, using the unprecedented freedom granted me when I was awarded the Friendship Medal, I guided a group of journalists around Pyongyang who had arrived to accompany Madeleine Albright, then Secretary of State. While traveling on a highway north of the capital, we came across a soldier lying dead in the middle of the road. Over the objections of my government minder, we stopped  to investigate. The signs that the soldier had been tortured were obvious.
 
In response, I handed over a statement of humanitarian principles to the North Korean government. My government minder at that time?who had been given the responsibility of controlling my activities closely?was abruptly exchanged. I never saw him or his family again.
 
My behavior offended the party leaders, who of course prevented me from attending at any more hospitals. My car was sabotaged, and finally I was forced to leave the country. Against the wishes of the North Korean authorities, I went directly to Seoul instead of going home to Germany, where I spoke to international journalists.
 
I interviewed hundreds of North Korean defectors at the Chinese-North Korean border and elsewhere, in order to learn more about the cruel realities of life in their home country. Former prisoners of North Korean concentration camps told me about mass executions, torture, rape, murder, and other crimes against humanity?all performed as punishment for ?anti-state criminal acts.?
 
The international community, working closely with the media, must put serious pressure on the North Korean regime to open up to the outside world and save the lives of their ordinary citizens. As a German born after World War II, I know all too well the guilt of my grandparents? generation for remaining silent while the Nazis committed indescribable crimes. I believe it is my duty as a human being to expose the crimes and tyranny of the North Korean regime.
 
I have visited the United States, Japan, and Europe with my findings, and I will continue to travel the world for the express purpose of exposing the criminality of the secret state of North Korea. My hope is that someday soon I will have much company, and that a resulting wave of international pressure will lead to the reform of this depraved and mad corner of humanity.

2002
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To ensure the privacy of participants, we have built an anonymous analysis process. Your Participation Kit will be mailed with a randomly-generated, non-sequential Genographic Participant ID number (GPID). Although we will have mailed a Participation Kit to your address, we do not know the random code included in the Kit. When you send in your DNA sample with your consent form, they will only be identified by your GPID. Therefore, your cheek cells will be analyzed completely anonymously.

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Public participation may be restricted in some countries where the export of genetic material requires government approval. China is one country that has such restrictions in place. The Genographic Project will work with the relevant authorities to achieve the broadest level of public participation possible.

https://www5.nationalgeographic.com/genographic/participate.html

2003
Politics & Religion / The Guantanamo Bay Gripes
« on: June 15, 2005, 09:25:36 AM »
I dunno, this piece comes dangerously close to allowing logic and good sense into the discussion. . . .


June 15, 2005, 7:48 a.m.
Gitmo by Any Other Name?
?is still necessary.
Jonah Goldberg


There?s a lot I don?t understand about the current hysteria over our prison facility at Guantanamo Bay. At the top of the list is why no one has mentioned Louis Pepe or Mamdouh Mahmud Salim.

Salim, a reputed top lieutenant of Osama bin Laden, was being held at the Metropolitan Correctional Center, a high security federal jail in lower Manhattan. Pepe was a guard there. On November 1, 2000, Salim plunged a sharpened comb into Pepe?s left eye and three inches into his brain. Salim and a compatriot also beat Pepe savagely, in their effort to get the guard?s keys and orchestrate an escape for himself and two fellow terrorists awaiting trial. Believing Pepe was dead, the attackers used his own blood to paint a Christian cross on his torso. Pepe was an experienced correctional officer, a member of the elite MCC Enforcers Disturbance Control, and he weighed in at 300 pounds. He survived the attack with brain damage, crippling disabilities, and an unending stream of surgeries.

The reason Pepe and Salim are relevant should be obvious. There are good guys and bad guys in this story, and as much as it pains some to hear it, we are the good guys. We are not talking about confused teenagers caught up in events larger than themselves. We aren?t talking about mistaken identities. We?re talking about the cream of our enemy?s crop in the war on terror.

Critics of the Bush administration are fond of the argument that the war in Iraq is a distraction from the real war on terror. John Kerry, Howard Dean, and countless others have argued that Iraq diluted our efforts in Afghanistan, the hunt for Osama Bin Laden, and the worldwide consensus on the need to destroy al Qaeda. That?s an argument worth having ? and we have had it many times over. But if it were all true and we had never invaded Iraq, we would still have Guantanamo and the problem of what to do with hardened, dedicated terrorists like Salim.

Of course, we could close Guantanamo, but if you actually support the war on terror you must recognize that we would still need someplace like it. A rose by any other name and all that. We can?t summarily execute every al Qaeda member we capture. Not just because that would raise legitimate moral and legal problems, but because we can?t win unless we interrogate these guys.

Senator Joe Biden said that while we should close Gitmo and release the occupants, we should also ?keep those we have reason to keep.? Huh? This is the logical equivalent of Solomon saying, ?Hey, let?s cut the baby in half after all.? Imagine if, instead of Gitmo, the issue was the death penalty. ?The death penalty should be abolished, but let?s execute the folks there?s a reason to execute.?

If we kept the ones ?we have reason to keep? ? which would probably mean all 500 or so current detainees ? but closed Gitmo, we could bring them to the United States. But this would be a legal quagmire, as it isn?t clear what their rights would be on U.S. soil. And it would be a disaster to treat them like common criminals with all of the usual constitutional rights. Nobody read these murderers their rights when they were seized in Afghanistan, and it?s not like the cast of ?CSI: Kabul? or ?Kandahar PD Blue? collected all the necessary forensic evidence to build a case against them. Does that mean we should just let them go? We certainly can?t set them free on American soil. And if we send them back to Afghanistan or Pakistan, it would be like giving them a do-over.

Any new Gitmo would quickly gain the same reputation as the old one because a) al-Qaida is under strict orders to allege all manner of abuses for propaganda purposes, especially now that such tactics have proved so useful, and b) because the ?international community? and other lovers of runny cheese desperately want such allegations to be true, regardless of the evidence. That the head of Amnesty International could call Gitmo, where we spend more money on the care and feeding of detainees than we do on our own troops, the ?Gulag of our time? is all the evidence we need for that. Caving into such bullying would send the unmistakable message that American can be rolled.

Now, none of this is to say that the U.S. military should have carte blanche to torture or harass detainees. There must be rules, and it is perfectly fair to debate what those rules should be. But unlike the lawless calamity of Abu Ghraib, the evidence is sparse that Guantanamo is anything like the house of horrors depicted by its detractors. In other words, if there are abuses, remedy them. If allegations are propagandistic lies, rebut them as best you can.

But caving into a defamation campaign in order to please those who cannot be pleased and aiding those who must not be aided is no way to support the war on terror or prevent more victims like Louis Pepe.
   
http://www.nationalreview.com/goldberg/goldberg200506150748.asp

2004
This is a pretty inside baseball matter; few who live outside the DC area will give a hoot. Still in the context of the above, amazing, post it does shed some light on the Washington Post's journalistic ethics, or lack thereof.

June 07, 2005, 7:50 a.m.
Political Post
Was the Washington Post used by Democratic operatives in Maryland?

By Stephen Spruiell

Last week, Vanity Fair scooped the Washington Post when it revealed the identity of the Post?s legendary anonymous source Deep Throat. Once Vanity Fair had reported that Deep Throat was actually W. Mark Felt of the FBI, speculation began to circulate about his motives for feeding information to the Post. Bob Shieffer on Face the Nation Sunday argued that Felt?s motives were unimportant, because his actions had saved America from becoming ?a nation of men, not laws.?

Fair enough. Suppose, however, that Deep Throat had orchestrated the Watergate break-in and then leaked to the Washington Post in order to frame his co-conspirators. Would his motives matter then? Judging by the Post?s recent reporting on a political scandal in Maryland, the motives of anonymous sources feeding information to the paper are not important if the result is a chance to relive the Post?s glory days of Watergate, if only in some small way.

E-spionage
In October of 2004, a Maryland state employee named Joseph Steffen entered into a discussion on FreeRepublic.com using the screen name ?NCPAC.? Another Free Republic user (or ?freeper?) using the screen name ?MD4Bush? engaged Steffen in a friendly way on the public message board. The two began exchanging private e-mails, in which they discussed longstanding rumors about the personal life of Baltimore mayor and likely 2006 Maryland gubernatorial candidate Martin O?Malley (D).
In early 2005, the e-mails were ?given? to the Washington Post by a source that remains unidentified in the paper?s reporting. Post reporter Matthew Mosk confronted Steffen, who verified that he had written them. When Maryland Governor Robert Ehrlich (R) found out that the Post was planning to portray Steffen as part of a coordinated effort to spread rumors about O?Malley, Ehrlich had little choice. He accepted Steffen?s resignation.

February 8, 2005 ? hours before the Post?s story appeared online ? MD4Bush posted excerpts from the private e-mails to a Free Republic message board. MD4Bush had underlined damaging passages and only posted e-mails that NCPAC had written ? even though according to Free Republic spokesman Kristinn Taylor, posting such private e-mails (or ?freepmails?) without permission is a violation of Free Republic posting guidelines. MD4Bush then vanished from the site and has not posted since.

The most obvious explanation for this behavior is that someone who knew that Steffen was NCPAC set him up. The Post did not report this strange activity. Instead, on February 11 Mosk and David Snyder co-wrote a story headlined: ?Uproar brings focus on role of bloggers.? The first half of the article focused on Free Republic, its history and its nature as a place where people traffic in rumors and gossip. But the last half posted more of the exchanges between MD4Bush and NCPAC. The Post chose paragraph 12 to reveal that MD4Bush ?drew Steffen into a private conversation and appeared to coax him to share more details about his role in spreading the rumor.? The Post printed the following exchange at the end of the article:

A few weeks later, MD4BUSH contacted NCPAC again, asking, ?If some of my friends and I were interested in keeping the story floating, do you have suggestions for us on how best to do it??
Here, Steffen backed away: ?I am sure you will understand, I cannot and will not offer suggestions that may be considered unethical concerning what you should do, campaign-wise. This is especially true concerning [Mayor O?Malley?s] personal life.

(Mosk declined to comment on the placement of information in the article.)

The Post abruptly shifted the focus of its coverage of the Steffen matter to his relationship to Gov. Ehrlich and his role in Ehrlich?s administration. Meanwhile, several other reporters, including Dave Collins and Jayne Miller of WBAL TV in Baltimore, started to investigate some of the more curious aspects of the story. For instance, it seemed interesting, Collins said, that the story breaking when it did simultaneously solved a political problem for the mayor (rumors that had plagued him for years) and focused the blame for those rumors on someone connected to his chief political opponent.

Over the course of the following months, reporters for WBAL TV, WBAL Radio and the Maryland Gazette uncovered the following bits of information that the Post neglected in its reporting:

Real Source of the Rumors

Rival coverage: WBAL Radio reported on the existence of a story that appeared in March of 2000 in the Washington Post, in which Mayor O?Malley?s wife mentioned the rumors (?That he?s running around on me. That he has been running around on me for years.?) and attributed them to political opponents from O?Malley?s days on the Baltimore City Council.

Post coverage: In its initial coverage of the Steffen story, the Post reported that the rumors had been ?widespread? for at least 18 months. However, the Post did not report that these rumors, according to the Mayor?s wife herself, originated from local political opponents from O?Malley?s days as a councilman. This information could have provided context for O?Malley?s charges, aired in the Post, that for 18 months Ehrlich himself had overseen an orchestrated campaign to smear him. After WBAL Radio reported on O?Malley?s wife?s comments, the Post also did a story.

Nature of the Private E-mails

Rival coverage: WBAL TV posted more of the e-mail exchanges between MD4Bush and NCPAC, demonstrating clearly that MD4Bush had asked leading questions and trying to prompt replies from NCPAC that would look as damaging as possible.

Post coverage: The Post reported extensively on Steffen?s e-mails, even creating a webpage for some of them. However, the Post failed to report the extent to which MD4Bush attempted to put words into NCPAC?s mouth (compare the WBAL TV story to the Post?s most thorough treatment of this angle: the ?Uproar brings focus on role of bloggers? story).

Blackmail Attempt

Rival coverage: Collins and Miller of WBAL TV, Thomas Dennison of the Maryland Gazette and others noticed that a third person had been cropped out of a now-famous picture of Gov. Ehrlich with his arm around Steffen ? a picture that had been anonymously distributed to all the local news outlets including the Post. Curious, Collins asked Ehrlich?s office about the identity of the missing person. At first, the governor?s office refused to cooperate with Collins. Then, Dennison asked the governor about the photo in public. Ehrlich spokesman Paul Schurick said, ?We had been very reluctant to release that photograph, because we didn?t see any advantage to it, but once that horse got out of the barn, we decided to go with it.?

On March 24, the governor?s office revealed that the third person in the photograph was a former state employee named Michelle Lane. Further, Ehrlich revealed that Lane had sent his office an e-mail on February 12, accusing him of masterminding a ?whisper campaign? against her and threatening to release information about Joseph Steffen that she said would damage the administration. Collins and Miller started looking for more information about Lane. From their reporting, the following timeline emerges:

 Lane and Steffen were friends at one point. When both worked for Ehrlich, they became close and exchanged e-mails often. At some point, however, they had a falling out and stopped communicating.

 While working for the state of Maryland, Lane asked for a promotion three times. Instead, in July 2004 she was let go.

 Weeks after she was fired, Lane began meeting with key members of the O?Malley administration. In one e-mail, according to Miller, she wrote that she had ?potentially useful information to share.?

When Collins started reporting these facts, he began to receive calls from important state Democrats, who all sounded like they were reading from the ?same script,? he said. ??Why are you guys trying to expose Deep Throat?? They all asked me that. And I said, ?Deep Throat was a source of information, and MD4Bush was possibly an operative. Don?t you see the difference?? And [they] didn?t.?

As Collins and Miller were filing these reports, someone sent an anonymous letter to the Baltimore City Paper attacking Collins?s credibility as a journalist. ?I do find it coincidental that it occurred in the middle of our aggressive pursuit of who is MD4Bush and trying to answer the question, ?Was this an orchestrated effort??? he said.

Post coverage: The Post story focused on Lane?s attorney?s claim, supported by documents she produced, that she was fired for trying to draw the governor?s attention to the state?s broken foster care system. The next day, the Post ran a story headlined, ?Md. foster care draws scrutiny; Ehrlich?s challenge to media on former state worker backfires.? The headline referred to Ehrlich?s challenge to reporters to identify MD4Bush, which he made during the press conference. Instead of accepting the challenge, the Post wrote a fawning profile of Michelle Lane as a courageous whistleblower who was fired for daring to speak truth to power. To date, the Post has not reported on Lane?s rebuffed attempts to get promoted or her recently acquired ties to Democrats.

The Post continues to focus its coverage almost exclusively on items that reflect well on O?Malley and poorly on Ehrlich. The Post has focused primarily on two things: Democrats in the state legislature who complain about Steffen?s role in the hiring and firing of state employees; and Steffen?s personal eccentricities. In the 28 stories Mosk wrote or co-wrote about Steffen, only three stories mention MD4Bush. One is the aforementioned story that focused more on Free Republic than anything. The other two quote Ehrlich officials challenging reporters to find out who MD4Bush is ? a challenge the Post has thus far refused to accept.

None of this necessarily proves an anti-Ehrlich bias at the Post. However, it is increasingly clear that the Post has been used by political operatives to simultaneously help O?Malley and hurt Ehrlich, and that the Post doesn?t seem to care. When asked if he shared this view of things, Mosk said, ?The articles about Steffen?s behavior reported on the actions of a man long associated with Ehrlich?s campaign activities ? actions that weren?t previously known. The reaction of the governor was to fire the aide, and the reaction of the mayor was to express concern and ask for an apology.

?What the reporting did is what we were supposed to do as reporters,? Mosk said. ?The reporting exposed an area of government activity that was not previously known to the public. I feel comfortable that the reporting did a public service.?

This answer does not address the matter of what a newspaper owes its readers when it uses (or is used by) anonymous sources. Post editor Leonard Downie Jr. tried to articulate a policy on the use of anonymous sources when he wrote in March of 2004:

? we will try to explain to readers why a source is not being named. We also will strive to tell our readers as much as we can about why such a source would be knowledgeable and whether the source has a particular point of view? We want at least one Post editor to know the identity of each unnamed source cited in the newspaper, as was the case during Watergate, so that editors can help decide whether to use the source in a story.

When I asked Mosk how he could trust the source who gave him the private e-mails from Free Republic, he reminded me that Steffen had confirmed that he had written the e-mails. But this does not tell his readers anything about the way in which these private e-mails were brought to the attention of the Post in the first place. Isn?t that important for readers to know? Don?t readers deserve to know why this source wasn?t named? What does this source have to hide? And why hasn?t the Post made available to its readers the entire e-mail exchange between NCPAC and MD4Bush? Or told its readers about how MD4Bush posted excerpts of the e-mails on Free Republic on February 8 and then vanished? By failing to answer these questions, the Post has failed to live up to its own guidelines.

Who is MD4Bush? ?We will find out,? Dave Collins told me. ?I have full confidence it?ll come out.? In addition to the reporting of Collins and Miller, Joseph Steffen has retained a lawyer, who said he is attempting to get MD4Bush?s account information from Free Republic. Hopefully the truth will come out before it gets to that point.

Does the Post care about MD4Bush?s identity? Mosk would not tell NRO whether the Post is investigating. It would be in the Post?s best interest to do so. It has already been scooped on the identity of one anonymous source this year.

? Stephen Sprueill reports on the media for National Review Online's new media blog, which debuts today.

2005
Politics & Religion / Shaking the Sword in the Sheath
« on: June 07, 2005, 06:59:52 PM »
Hmm. . . .

Think it's safe to say a strike North Korean nuclear assets is implicit. Not likely, but it certainly complicates NK's calculus.


U.S. stealth fighters arrive in South Korea
Reuters
Jun 6, 2005, 12:34

Some of the 15 radar-evading stealth fighters which the United States is deploying to South Korea have arrived there, a U.S. military spokesman said on Monday.

North Korea has bitterly denounced the deployment of the F-117A Nighthawks in its official media, saying it is part of U.S. plans for an invasion of the reclusive country.

The U.S. Air Force has said the planes, from Holloman Air Force base in New Mexico, are being deployed for training in the region for four months.

But it not clear whether the planes are in addition to the two dozen stealth fighters which the Air Force sent to Kunsan Air Base in South Korea last summer or are part of a regular rotation.

"The deployment has begun but it has not been completed," a U.S. Forces Korea spokesman said.

He did not say when the first batch of planes arrived or when the deployment would be completed.

The deployment comes as tensions are running high with North Korea, which said in February it had nuclear weapons and was boycotting six-party talks aimed at ending its nuclear programs.

The Air Force has said there is no relation between the current turmoil over the North Korean nuclear issue and the deployment of the stealth fighters.

URL of this article:
http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/article_002497.shtm

2006
Politics & Religion / Terminal Futility
« on: June 07, 2005, 03:04:50 PM »
My sentiments exactly. . . .

fighting words
Terminal Futility
Routine airport security won't thwart jihadists, but it does inconvenience and endanger the rest of us.
By Christopher Hitchens
Posted Monday, June 6, 2005, at 1:02 PM PT

Is there anyone reading this column who would agree with Mark O. Hatfield Jr., spokesman for the Transportation Security Administration, that in the past year "the average peak wait time at [airport] checkpoints has dropped a minute ... to about 12 minutes"? This is what he was cited as having said, in a New York Times report of a confidential document from the Department of Homeland Security. The last time I was at Dulles Airport, the line for security began at the entrance to the terminal and wound itself in several rope-line convolutions, like a clogged intestine, for about 40 minutes. I had allowed the usual two hours and was checking no luggage, but this and other banana-republic conditions almost made me miss my plane. Nor was it a "peak time." In any case, a passenger cannot know what a "peak time" will be. Only the TSA knows how many people are booked on how many flights at a given hour and can make provision of enough machines and personnel. Or not, as the case may be.

So, Hatfield was telling me something that I didn't know. The rest of the report, however, contains things that everyone does know to be true. We learn that there is no real capacity to detect explosives, for example. And we learn that, "If, say, a handgun were discovered, the terrorist would have ample ability to retain control of it. TSA screeners are neither expecting to encounter a real weapon nor are they trained to gain control of it." Who hasn't worked that out?

I think I had also noticed that there are not enough plastic bins or tables to line them up on, and that "X-ray machines that examine carry-on baggage sit idle as much as 30 per cent of the time." The time elapsed between Sept. 11, 2001, and today's writing (1,364 days) is only slightly less than the time between Pearl Harbor and the unconditional surrender of Japan (1,365 days). And airport security is still a silly farce that subjects the law-abiding to collective punishment while presenting almost no deterrent to a determined suicide-killer.

There is one mercy at least: One no longer sees people smiling and saying, "Thank you" as their wheelchairs and their children are put through pointless inspections. But the new form of servile abjection?standing in sullen lines and just putting up with it?is hardly an improvement. One sometimes wants to ask, "What's my name?" or, "To what database is this connected" when someone has just asked for the third time for you to put down a bag and produce a driver's license. But I think the fear of making some inscrutable "no-fly" list may inhibit many people. There has never yet been a hijacker who boarded a plane without taking the trouble to purchase a ticket and carry an ID. Members of the last successful group were on a "watch list," for all the difference that made. The next successful group will not be on a watch list.

Flying from London to Washington the other day, I was told that I was no longer required to take my computer out of its case. Apparently, there are scanners that can see though soft cases as well as through the hardened lid of a laptop (and apparently the United States hasn't managed to invest in any of these scanners for its domestic airports). On the other hand, I was asked if I had packed my own bags and if they had been under my control at all times. This exceptionally stupid pair of questions?to which a terrorist would have to answer "yes" by definition?is now deemed too stupid for U.S. domestic purposes and stupid enough only for international travel. This makes as much sense as diverting a full plane that carries a notorious Islamist crooner, the artist formerly known as Cat Stevens, from one airport to another.

Routines and "zero tolerance" exercises will never thwart determined jihadists who are inventive and who are willing to sacrifice their lives. That requires inventiveness and initiative. But airport officials are not allowed to use their initiative. People who have had their names confused with wanted or suspect people, and who have spent hours proving that they are who they say they are, are nonetheless compelled to go through the whole process every time, often with officials who have seen them before and cleared them before, because the system that never seems to catch anyone can never seem to let go of anyone, either.

While people are treated as packages, we learn from the same New York Times account of the still-secret Homeland Security document that "air cargo on passenger planes is rarely physically inspected today." Imagine, if you will, the wolfish grin of an al-Qaida fan who reads that sentence. I sometimes don't want to mention all the other loopholes, in case it gives ideas to the wrong people, but just imagine for a second that we imposed our current airport rules on trains, or the subway, or the tunnels and bridges ?

What we are looking at, then, is a hugely costly and oppressive system that is designed to maintain the illusion of safety and the delusion that the state is protecting its citizens. The main beneficiaries seem to be the pilferers employed by this vast bureaucracy?we have had several recent reports about the steep increase in items stolen from luggage. And that is petty theft that takes place off-stage. What amazes me is the willingness of Americans to submit to confiscation at the point of search. Every day, people are relieved of private property in broad daylight, with the sole net result that they wouldn't have even a nail file with which to protect themselves if (or rather when) the next hijacking occurs.

Last month, cigarette lighters were added to the confiscation list. There's probably some half-baked "shoe-bomber" justification for this, but I hear that at Boise airport in Idaho there's now a lighter bin on the way out of the airport, like the penny tray in some shops, that allows you to pick one up. Give one; take one?it all helps to pass the time until the next disaster, which collective punishment of the law-abiding is doing nothing to prevent.

Christopher Hitchens is a columnist for Vanity Fair. His most recent book is Thomas Jefferson: Author of America.

Article URL: http://slate.msn.com/id/2120330/

2007
Politics & Religion / We the Unorganized Militia
« on: June 07, 2005, 11:17:21 AM »
Hmm, interesting. Other versions I've read about the above incident have an exchange of gunfire initiated by the bad guys. . . .

2008
Politics & Religion / The Liberal Lexicon
« on: June 02, 2005, 07:29:40 PM »
Not quite the Devil's Dictinary, but it gets an A for effort:

http://www.trilobyte-mag.com/lexicon.htm

2009
Politics & Religion / Unwitting Eugenics
« on: June 02, 2005, 04:58:20 PM »
The strokes are quite broad here, but the thesis interesting:

The evolution of intelligence

Natural genius?
Jun 2nd 2005
From The Economist print edition

The high intelligence of Ashkenazi Jews may be a result of their persecuted past

THE idea that some ethnic groups may, on average, be more intelligent than others is one of those hypotheses that dare not speak its name. But Gregory Cochran, a noted scientific iconoclast, is prepared to say it anyway. He is that rare bird, a scientist who works independently of any institution. He helped popularise the idea that some diseases not previously thought to have a bacterial cause were actually infections, which ruffled many scientific feathers when it was first suggested. And more controversially still, he has suggested that homosexuality is caused by an infection.

Even he, however, might tremble at the thought of what he is about to do. Together with Jason Hardy and Henry Harpending, of the University of Utah, he is publishing, in a forthcoming edition of the Journal of Biosocial Science, a paper which not only suggests that one group of humanity is more intelligent than the others, but explains the process that has brought this about. The group in question are Ashkenazi Jews. The process is natural selection.


History before science
Ashkenazim generally do well in IQ tests, scoring 12-15 points above the mean value of 100, and have contributed disproportionately to the intellectual and cultural life of the West, as the careers of Freud, Einstein and Mahler, pictured above, affirm. They also suffer more often than most people from a number of nasty genetic diseases, such as Tay-Sachs and breast cancer. These facts, however, have previously been thought unrelated. The former has been put down to social effects, such as a strong tradition of valuing education. The latter was seen as a consequence of genetic isolation. Even now, Ashkenazim tend to marry among themselves. In the past they did so almost exclusively.

Dr Cochran, however, suspects that the intelligence and the diseases are intimately linked. His argument is that the unusual history of the Ashkenazim has subjected them to unique evolutionary pressures that have resulted in this paradoxical state of affairs.

Ashkenazi history begins with the Jewish rebellion against Roman rule in the first century AD. When this was crushed, Jewish refugees fled in all directions. The descendants of those who fled to Europe became known as Ashkenazim.

In the Middle Ages, European Jews were subjected to legal discrimination, one effect of which was to drive them into money-related professions such as banking and tax farming which were often disdained by, or forbidden to, Christians. This, along with the low level of intermarriage with their gentile neighbours (which modern genetic analysis confirms was the case), is Dr Cochran's starting point.

He argues that the professions occupied by European Jews were all ones that put a premium on intelligence. Of course, it is hard to prove that this intelligence premium existed in the Middle Ages, but it is certainly true that it exists in the modern versions of those occupations. Several studies have shown that intelligence, as measured by IQ tests, is highly correlated with income in jobs such as banking.

What can, however, be shown from the historical records is that European Jews at the top of their professions in the Middle Ages raised more children to adulthood than those at the bottom. Of course, that was true of successful gentiles as well. But in the Middle Ages, success in Christian society tended to be violently aristocratic (warfare and land), rather than peacefully meritocratic (banking and trade).

Put these two things together?a correlation of intelligence and success, and a correlation of success and fecundity?and you have circumstances that favour the spread of genes that enhance intelligence. The questions are, do such genes exist, and what are they if they do? Dr Cochran thinks they do exist, and that they are exactly the genes that cause the inherited diseases which afflict Ashkenazi society.

That small, reproductively isolated groups of people are susceptible to genetic disease is well known. Constant mating with even distant relatives reduces genetic diversity, and some disease genes will thus, randomly, become more common. But the very randomness of this process means there should be no discernible pattern about which disease genes increase in frequency. In the case of Ashkenazim, Dr Cochran argues, this is not the case. Most of the dozen or so disease genes that are common in them belong to one of two types: they are involved either in the storage in nerve cells of special fats called sphingolipids, which form part of the insulating outer sheaths that allow nerve cells to transmit electrical signals, or in DNA repair. The former genes cause neurological diseases, such as Tay-Sachs, Gaucher's and Niemann-Pick. The latter cause cancer.

That does not look random. And what is even less random is that in several cases the genes for particular diseases come in different varieties, each the result of an independent original mutation. This really does suggest the mutated genes are being preserved by natural selection. But it does not answer the question of how evolution can favour genetic diseases. However, in certain circumstances, evolution can.

West Africans, and people of West African descent, are susceptible to a disease called sickle-cell anaemia that is virtually unknown elsewhere. The anaemia develops in those whose red blood cells contain a particular type of haemoglobin, the protein that carries oxygen. But the disease occurs only in those who have two copies of the gene for the disease-causing haemoglobin (one copy from each parent). Those who have only one copy have no symptoms. They are, however, protected against malaria, one of the biggest killers in that part of the world. Thus, the theory goes, the pressure to keep the sickle-cell gene in the population because of its malaria-protective effects balances the pressure to drive it out because of its anaemia-causing effects. It therefore persists without becoming ubiquitous.

Dr Cochran argues that something similar happened to the Ashkenazim. Genes that promote intelligence in an individual when present as a single copy create disease when present as a double copy. His thesis is not as strong as the sickle-cell/malaria theory, because he has not proved that any of his disease genes do actually affect intelligence. But the area of operation of some of them suggests that they might.

The sphingolipid-storage diseases, Tay-Sachs, Gaucher's and Niemann-Pick, all involve extra growth and branching of the protuberances that connect nerve cells together. Too much of this (as caused in those with double copies) is clearly pathological. But it may be that those with single copies experience a more limited, but still enhanced, protuberance growth. That would yield better linkage between brain cells, and might thus lead to increased intelligence. Indeed, in the case of Gaucher's disease, the only one of the three in which people routinely live to adulthood, there is evidence that those with full symptoms are more intelligent than the average. An Israeli clinic devoted to treating people with Gaucher's has vastly more engineers, scientists, accountants and lawyers on its books than would be expected by chance.

Why a failure of the DNA-repair system should boost intelligence is unclear?and is, perhaps, the weakest part of the thesis, although evidence is emerging that one of the genes in question is involved in regulating the early growth of the brain. But the thesis also has a strong point: it makes a clear and testable prediction. This is that people with a single copy of the gene for Tay-Sachs, or that for Gaucher's, or that for Niemann-Pick should be more intelligent than average. Dr Cochran and his colleagues predict they will be so by about five IQ points. If that turns out to be the case, it will strengthen the idea that, albeit unwillingly, Ashkenazi Jews have been part of an accidental experiment in eugenics. It has brought them some advantages. But, like the deliberate eugenics experiments of the 20th century, it has also exacted a terrible price.

2010
Politics & Religion / Lionization Tamer
« on: June 02, 2005, 02:13:11 PM »
Whenever the MSM all start singing from the same hymnal I figure it's time to seek another opinion. Found this in my wanderings.

For those who weren't around in those days in the mid-70s, there were a lot of spooky things going on. Back in my hippy days I hung with a lot of street worker and social activist types. Many of 'em had the special garbage truck show up to haul off their trash. A buddy of mine sent an unflattering cartoon featuring Richard Nixon to the National Lampoon; he was very proud of the letter he got back that basically said "Burn this thing, kid, or you'll end up on an enemies list so fast it'll make your head spin." I recall the Church hearings and remember being scandalized when some of the details of COINTELPRO were reported. In short I don't feel Felt is quite ready to be fitted with a halo. . . .



My Secret Life with W. Mark Felt
His agents probably broke into my office, and may have monitored my bedroom one night. Even as journalists hail the deeds of Deep Throat, no one should forget he was also an architect of the nefarious COINTELPRO spy program. The man truly knew a thing or two about illegal break-ins.

By Greg Mitchell

(June 01, 2005) -- I'll never know for sure, but it's possible that I was once on, ahem, fairly intimate terms with W. Mark Felt, the leak artist formerly known as Deep Throat.

Journalists and many others lionizing the former FBI official -- rightly -- for his contribution in helping to bring down Richard Nixon, should not overlook the fact that Felt was one of the architects of the bureau's notorious COINTELPRO domestic spying-and-burglary campaign. He was convicted in 1980 of authorizing nine illegal entries in New Jersey in 1972 and 1973 -- the very period during which he was famously meeting Bob Woodward in a parking garage. Only a pardon, courtesy of Ronald Reagan, kept him out of jail for a long term.

So the man knew a thing or two about illegal break-ins. COINTELPRO was the Patriot Act on steroids. And that's where I come in.

Back in the bad old/good old days of the early 1970s, a fellow I'll call "Stew" used to write, off and on, for a rather legendary magazine that I helped edit in New York City, before I went straight, called Crawdaddy. (We had plenty of other contributors, including Joseph Heller, P.J. O'Rourke, Tom Waits, Richard Price, William Burroughs, and Tony Kornheiser, to name a few.) Stew was a proudly left-wing guy, but from the fun-loving ex-Yippie side of the antiwar spectrum, as opposed to the violent Weatherman sector. By 1973, he had a bad ticker, and was pretty much retired from any organized political activity.

Stew had both the good and bad fortune to live in an isolated area of the Catskills, sharing a humble cabin on a hilltop near Hurley, N.Y., with his wife Judy (also a politico). Occasionally I spent a weekend with them there, or stopped by on the way to somewhere else.

In those days, at least one famous left-wing fugitive seemed to be on the loose at all times, ranging from Patty Hearst to Abbie Hoffman. Given their location, and backgrounds, Stew and Judy were, at least on paper -- or in the fertile minds of Mark Felt's FBI agents -- plausible candidates to, perhaps, shelter at least one of the runaways. So they'd joke about their phone being tapped, or spotting spooks hiding behind trees in the woods, or expecting to find a listening device installed somewhere in their house.

Well, as we used to say, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't watching you. Turns out all of those fears were justified, and then some, thanks to Mr. Deep Throat and the program he helped organize.

Our fears first spiked when someone broke into the Crawdaddy office on lower Fifth Avenue one night. The intruder busted the gate protecting our rear entrance, and opened a few drawers, but nothing of true value or embarrassment was missing. You might say, in the parlance of the time, that we were only "Felt up." Unfortunately, we had very little to hide, beyond Bruce Springsteen's home phone number.

Then, I got a call from Stew on a Sunday morning, Dec. 11, 1975. He had come out to his old car, parked in front of a friend's house in Greenwich Village, and noticed the band of grime on his rear bumper was brushed away in one spot. Investigating, he reached under the bumper -- and found a crude homing device, about the size of a pack of cigarettes, with a cute little antenna sticking out. He had no idea how long it had been there or who, exactly, had been following them.

Naturally, Crawdaddy's editor, Peter Knobler, called a photographer, and we published a story about the episode the following month, which drew national attention. Pardon my French, but I recall that we called the story, "Bug Up My Ass!" (Remember: I was still a boy.)

With this rather firm evidence in hand, the couple launched a lawsuit against the government. During the course of it, FBI documents were released, and we all learned that, indeed, G-men had hidden in the woods watching them -- and worse, had broken into their cabin at least half a dozen times. The feds also monitored all their mail at the local post office, and opened some of it. Of course, in my editorial duties, I had sent them many letters: Remember snail mail? They also perused the couple's bank records. What incriminating evidence did they find? Zip. Nada.

One of the agents, according to the documents, had the wonderful name of George T. Twaddle.

Oh, one more thing: A listening device had been planted in their bedroom. I used that bedroom at least once while I visited them -- with a girlfriend, no less.

This was all standard fare for many FBI agents at the time, when they weren't infiltrating, or even starting, lefty political groups. "There was no instruction to me," Felt later told Congress, "nor do I believe there is any instruction in the Inspector's manuals, that inspectors should be on the alert to see that constitutional values are being protected."

Stew and Judy managed to win a cash settlement from the government, though I forget the figure and the details. Still, I doubt if they are joining in the chorus of hero worship today for W. Mark Felt, who has good reason to prefer going down in the history books as Deep Throat, not Deep Doodoo.

________________

ADDENUDUM

Some of my fellow geezers may recall that the chief probe of COINTELPRO and similar lawless intelligence operations was carried out by the so-called Church Committee (headed by Senator Frank Church). It issued a chilling report in 1976 that briefly had tremendous impact. Here is one section that deals with Felt:

"Internal inspection at the FBI has traditionally not encompassed legal or ethical questions at all. According to W. Mark Felt, the Assistant FBI Director in charge of the Inspection Division from 1964 to 1971, his job was to ensure that Bureau programs were being operated efficiently...He could not recall any program which was terminated because it might have been violating someone's civil rights.

"A number of questionable FBI programs were apparently never inspected. Felt could recall no inspection, for instance, of either the FBI mail opening programs or the Bureau's participation in the CIA's New York mail opening project. Even when improper programs were inspected, the Inspection Division did not attempt to exercise oversight in the sense of looking for wrongdoing. Its responsibility was simply to ensure that FBI policy, as defined by J. Edgar Hoover was effectively implemented and not to question the propriety of the policy. Thus, Felt testified that if, in the course of an inspection of a field office, he discovered a microphone surveillance on Martin Luther King, Jr., the only questions he would ask were whether it had been approved by the Director and whether the procedures had been properly followed.

"When Felt was asked whether the Inspection Division conducted any investigation into the propriety of COINTELPRO, the following exchange ensued:

"Mr. FELT. Not into the propriety.

"Q. So in the case of COINTELPRO, as in the case of NSA interceptions, your job as Inspector was to determine whether the program was being pursued effectively as opposed to whether it was proper?

"Mr. FELT. Right, with this exception, that in any of these situations, Counterintelligence Program or whatever, it very frequently happened that the inspectors, in reviewing the files, would direct that a certain investigation be discontinued, that it was not productive, or that there was some reason that it be discontinued.

"But I don't recall any cases being discontinued in the Counterintelligence program."





Greg Mitchell is editor of E&P and author of, among other books, "Tricky Dick and the Pink Lady" (Random House, 1998).

2011
Politics & Religion / "Spoons Don't Make Us Get Fat"
« on: June 01, 2005, 03:51:47 PM »
On Target ? Gun Owners Against Violence

By John J. Cahill
May 30, 2005

There is no group organized as Gun Owners Against Violence. At least no group with that name was found in a web search. There is an obvious reason. At least a reason obvious to gun owners. No such group is needed because all gun owners are against violence. Gun Owners Against Violence would be a redundant nomenclature, like Mammals for Breathing.

Gun owners are categorically against violence in our communities because that is a natural position for law-abiding civic minded members of our society. Violence involving firearms is particularly repugnant because too often the result is an illogical condemnation of equipment. Some people get mad at guns.

Gun owners I know get confused by emotional responses to hardware. These are folks like myself that have been at shooting matches large and small and have never observed a gun act out violently. At the Winter Range shooting match near Phoenix I was with 500 or so shooters in an area of a few acres. Each had a minimum of four guns as required to compete in that SASS Cowboy Shooting event. Most had spare guns too. Hardware does break. Spare hardware is a good thing.

Every shooter had at least two hundred rounds of ammo for each gun. None of those many guns or that considerable ammo acted out violently. All were well behaved, for several days. If you believe some guns are good and some are bad then you might conclude that was an impressive gathering of quite well mannered good guns. I don?t ascribe human qualities to machinery, so I just saw some real fine hardware and noted the pleasant and polite people, and great costumes.

I worked in corrections many years. I worked juvenile, not adult, but officers pay attention to the whole business so I made observations on the adult side. I observed that when guns are removed from a community, completely and totally removed, violence does not end. In fact, the result is the highest murder rate per capita of any community in our nation. But how can this be true?

Violence follows individuals who have threaded violence into their lives. Prisoners who have no access to guns will kill each other with toothbrushes melted and shaped into thrusting weapons, or with any scrap of metal, plastic, glass, even wood that can be fashioned into a stabbing or slashing implement. They will kill and maim each other with tools designed for kitchen work, custodial work, manufacturing, or with their bare hands. There is much violence in that population group, inside or outside of a controlled community, with or without guns.

My conclusion is that violence resides in the individual. Circumstances and backgrounds affect the behavior of each and every person, for better or worse. But the individual makes the decision. Guns don?t make anybody kill, cars don?t make anyone speed or drive drunk, spoons don?t make us get fat.

Never doubt that gun owners are against violence, but please do allow doubt to form when you are told that eliminating guns will decrease violence in a community.

http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/viewArticle.asp?articleID=507

2012
Politics & Religion / 64 Year Old Widow Shoots Intruder
« on: May 31, 2005, 03:11:44 PM »
Widow uses gun, instincts to fend off burgler

By Pedro Ruz Gutierrez
Sentinel Staff Writer

May 31, 2005

Judith Kuntz, 64, hunkered down in her darkened bedroom late Sunday evening, arming herself with a revolver.

A burglar had just broken into her Indialantic home and, fearing for her life, she said she let her instincts take over.

When the burglar, who had a flashlight, entered the room, Kuntz fired one round from her .38-caliber handgun.

Hit squarely in the chest, the unidentified intruder ran outside, where he collapsed and died.

On Monday, Kuntz was still shaken, but she briefly recalled her ordeal.

"I'm doing fine under the circumstances," she said. "I don't take any joy in somebody being dead. My self-preservation instinct took over."

She would not discuss the incident further.

"I don't feel real safe," said Kuntz, who has lived alone since her husband died nearly five years ago. "This has been a horrifying experience."

The Brevard County Sheriff's Office said she was justified in defending herself and will not face charges. The revolver was hers, inherited through her family, investigators said.

Agent Lou Heyn of the Sheriff's Office said the unidentified man entered Kuntz's home on Avenida del Mar by pulling the window off a back door.

"Occupied burglaries are rare, and this underscores that it is dangerous for the burglar and the homeowner," Heyn said. "Crime can be a tough career."

The intruder, who was not carrying identification, was described as a white male 35 to 45 years old, with dark-brown hair and a dark-brown mustache. He was wearing light-blue swim shorts, tennis shoes and a blue T-shirt.

Investigators are hoping to identify him through his tattoos. He has a cross on his right hand between his index finger and thumb and a Harley-Davidson motorcycle on his upper left arm. There also are the names of at least four women tattooed on his upper right arm.

Anyone with information about the man is encouraged to call the Sheriff's Office at 321-633-7162 or Central Florida Crimeline at 1-800-423-TIPS.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/orl-locwidow31053105may31,0,6453419.story?coll=orl-news-headlines

2013
Politics & Religion / Hanging the Last Capatalist
« on: May 31, 2005, 09:18:06 AM »
I've some qualms about this piece--I'm not sure the US-China trade parity advocated here makes much sense, for instance--but I do think I'll keep an eye out for this book as I've read other positive reviews.


Renowned Strategist Warns of Dire Threat from China
William R. Hawkins
Friday, May 27, 2005

The new book China: The Gathering Threat by the late Constantine Menges deserves to become a best seller.  Menges first presents a well documented history of the last half-century of U.S.-China relations, showing how Beijing has expanded its ambitions as its economy has grown, until it now plans to dominate not just Asia, but events globally.

Dr. Menges then turns his attention to the situation in Russia, where out of national weakness and anger over the collapse of the Soviet Union, President Vladimir Putin has aligned with Beijing, even though China poses a major threat to Russian interests in both Central Asia and the Far East.  Finally, Menges proposes a comprehensive strategy to contain China until internal democratic forces can change the regime into one that can be trusted.  

Constantine Menges devoted his entire life to the service of the United States.  His untimely death in 2004 left a void among that small cadre of strategic thinkers who are also experienced activists on the world stage.  Menges was born September 1, 1939, the day Germany invaded Poland to start World War II in Europe.  He was born in Turkey, to which his parents had fled because of their outspoken opposition to Adolf Hitler, and came to America at age four.  Menges would spend his career fighting against the spread of tyranny.  

As a student in Prague when the Berlin Wall was being built, he smuggled refugees out of East Germany.  Menges earned his doctorate from Columbia University, then went to the Rand Corporation where he wrote papers that anticipated the Reagan Doctrine, which brought down the Soviet Empire.  He argued that ?communist regimes are very vulnerable to a democratic national revolution that is conducted with skill and determination.? He served the Nixon and Ford administrations in the field of civil rights, having worked for voting rights in Mississippi and marched with Martin Luther King, Jr.

Menges warned President Jimmy Carter in 1977 that the friendly government in Iran might be overthrown and replaced by a radical Islamic state.  In 1979 this happened, imposing one of the greatest strategic defeats on U.S. policy of the post-war era ? one that still haunts us today as the Tehran mullahs develop nuclear weapons.  

When President Ronald Reagan took office, Menges worked for the CIA and then on the National Security Council.  He played a vital role in fighting the spread of Communism in Central America and drew up the plan for the 1983 invasion of Grenada, which toppled a pro-Castro tyrant.  Menges warned President George H. W. Bush of the rising tide of terrorism and drew up a plan to combat it (Menges never talked of a threat without providing a counter-plan), but the incoming Clinton administration had no interest in the subject.  

During the Clinton interregnum,  Menges moved from government to academia as a professor of international relations at George Washington University.  He was active as an advisor to many members of Congress, which is where I met him while working for Rep.  Duncan Hunter (R-CA).  Under the joint sponsorship of Hunter?s office and Menges? ?Transitions to Democracy? project, we hosted discussion sessions among Congressional staff members who dealt with national defense, foreign policy and international economics.  

I had read several of Menges? books before I met him.  His memoir of the Reagan years, Inside the National Security Council, made my blood boil.  It exposed the ways in which the State Department ?career? bureaucracy had tried to sabotage the president?s foreign policy.  This is a problem that plagues President George W. Bush today.  

I was thus honored to be asked to appear on a panel at the Hudson Institute to promote China: The Gathering Threat.  My role was to discuss China?s economy and Menges? concern that U.S. trade policy was helping to give Beijing the resources needed to challenge American security interests around the world.  Menges advocates an immediate end to trade deficits with China to bolster American industry and to aid democratic allies whose economies are also being ravaged in competition with Chinese exports.  The gains from trade should be shared between countries who have compatible interests and values, not used to increase the capabilities of rivals.  

Such a change in U.S. trade policy would also dramatically slow the Chinese economy and discredit the Beijing dictatorship, opening the door for democratic reformers to make their case that China can only progress if it adopts a liberating system of popular government.   Menges does not want to fight a war with China, but to promote change in Beijing before the regime thinks it is powerful enough to risk a war.  

Rapid economic growth under a dictatorship that views the United States as its ?main enemy? poses a threat even more potent than the Soviets.  The USSR eventually imploded because of the inherent flaws in the Marxist model.  China has sought to avoid the same fate by ?opening? to capitalism.  Many in the West have naively hoped that this alone would bring about political reform and an eventual move towards democracy.  But what has actually transpired is the movement of Beijing from communism to fascism ? the use of capitalist energy to fuel the ambitions of a tyrannical government.  

The Cold War strategy of containment was based on cutting Moscow off from outside sources of capital, technology, and trade until the system collapsed.  In stark contrast, China has benefitted from a flood of outside support.  Since 1993, the United States alone has given China some $800 billion in hard currency from its expanding trade deficit.  The 2005 deficit will likely give Beijing over $200 billion more, putting the cumulative total of wealth transferred from America to China at over a trillion dollars.  Add to that the surpluses China has run with Europe and Japan, plus foreign investment, cheap credit, and technology transfers, and it is clear that transnational corporations and banks are primarily responsible for the rise of Beijing?s power.

And here is where democracy cuts both ways.  Corporate lobbyists work very hard to prevent the U.S. government from taking action to contain or deter Beijing.  Chinese strategists assume, writes Menges, ?that all private businessmen are self-interested and self-seeking and that they do not consider or care about the broader national or geopolitical consequences of their actions? and that the transnational corporations ?will continue to help China accomplish its purposes in the years ahead.? It is imperative that in Washington ?government officials, not businessmen, decide what is in the broader national interest of the United States.? But weaning politicians from corporate influence (and money) is not an easy task.

Exactly a week before the Hudson Institute event, the annual Fortune Global Forum opened May 16 in Beijing.  The Global Forum was an invitation-only event ?limited to chairmen, CEOs, and presidents of major multinational corporations? according to its website, though Chinese government officials (including President Hu Jintao) were more than welcome.   The description of the event stated, ?As the world's economic center of gravity shifts to Asia, the dynamics of the global economy are changing dramatically.  Already a dominant force in trade, China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by mid-century....  The focus of the 2005 Forum will be how multinationals can tap into the enormous potential of China. Among the featured speakers were presidents and CEOs from General Motors, Motorola, Wal-Mart, and Goldman-Sachs, which has put together the financing for many major Chinese projects.
 
President Bill Clinton?s Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, had been a co-chairman of Goldman Sachs.  He recently told the Associated Press, ?China is likely to be the largest economy in the world and a tough-minded geopolitical power equal to any other geopolitical power on the globe.?  So the business execs can?t say they don?t know what they?re doing.  Menges is right, they just don?t care.  

It is the duty of those in government, however, to care about the trends that threatened to shift the balance of power in the world against the United States.  They must be willing to act against the entrenched special interests who have decided they can profit from building China into the next Great Power.  To do this in a democracy, U.S. government leaders need the active support of the American people.  The work of patriots like Constantine Menges are vital to inform the views of both officials and voters.  That is why the appearance of China: The Gathering Threat is so timely and important; and why Menges poured his last energies into completing this book before his death.  Everyone should be concerned about the rise of a China still ruled by a communist-fascist dictatorship; and anyone so concerned should read Menges? book, which lays out the situation in encyclopedic detail (the book runs 565 pages) while providing bold, but realistic, scenarios for meeting the threat.

William R. Hawkins is Senior Fellow for National Security Studies at the U.S. Business and Industry Council.

http://www.americaneconomicalert.org/view_art.asp?Prod_ID=1953

2014
Politics & Religion / Surge Control
« on: May 28, 2005, 01:27:43 PM »
It's interesting to note that the devices people are carrying are held responsible for this surge in crime. Maybe the fact the law abiding are denied the tools and the legal structure to resist these attacks has something to do with this surge.


iPods fuel rise in robberies
By Justin Davenport Crime Correspondent, Evening Standard

The iPod generation is helping to fuel a surge in street crime, Britain's top policeman claimed today.

Met Commissioner Sir Ian Blair said the latest generation of mobile phones and iPods with their distinctive white leads were partly behind a shock 26 per cent jump in street robbery last month.

New figures published today show gun crime also leapt by 35 per cent in April compared with the same month last year and the number of violent offences increased by 13 per cent.

In a report to the Metropolitan Police Authority, the Commissioner said the Met had suffered "a bad few weeks" but that crime in the capital was still falling.

He said urgent measures had been put in place to tackle the increases and he believed they were now under control.

The rise in some offences last month was partly due to the early Easter break, which meant the traditionally quiet period fell in March rather than April.

Senior officers admitted the battle against street crime had also suffered because of the loss of a ?12 million government grant which funded anti-robbery task forces in London.

Assistant Commissioner Tim Godwin said there had been a rise in opportunistic robberies, mainly by schoolchildren. Many involved the "happy slapping" craze in which children use mobile phones to film assaults.

The leap in robbery is a serious setback to the government-driven campaign against street crime. It is driven mainly by gangs, some of whom are as young as 10. One group on BMX-type bikes robbed 100 people in two months outside a Tottenham Tube station, concentrating on the latest phones which can be sold on for ?30-?40.

More than half of all street crime in London involves the theft of a mobile and it is believed more than 700,000 phones are stolen each year.

MPA member Cindy Butts said she was concerned about an unprecedented 35 per cent increase in gun crime in London. She hit out at Home Secretary Charles Clarke for failing to take gun crime in the black community seriously.

Find this story at http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/londonnews/articles/18888921?version=1

2015
Politics & Religion / Space Arms Race?
« on: May 26, 2005, 08:51:14 AM »
Several articles of China's developing space program and possible points of conflict with the US can be found at:

http://www.space.com/adastra/china_special_report.html

China?s Future in Space: Implications for U.S. Security
By Phillip C. Saunders


China?s October 2003 manned space flight highlighted its dramatic achievements in space technology. Although Chinese space technology is not state-of-the-art, China differs from other developing countries by having a space program that spans the full range of capabilities from satellite design to launch services. China builds satellites on its own, and is involved in international commercial and scientific collaborations with Europe, Russia and Brazil. The People's Republic of China has a robust commercial satellite launch industry capable of launching payloads into geosynchronous and polar orbits. Its space program is also notable for the movement of personnel and technology between the civilian and military sectors.

Beijing?s space aspirations pose significant security concerns for Washington. Most of China?s space programs have commercial or scientific purposes, but improved space technology could significantly improve Chinese military capabilities. China may also seek to offset U.S. military superiority by targeting U.S. space assets. This article reviews Chinese efforts to exploit space for military purposes, explores the potential for China to attack U.S. military use of space, and considers whether a Sino-American space race can be averted.

Leveraging Space for Military Operations

China already employs space to support military operations in the areas of satellite communications, intelligence and navigation, albeit at a relatively basic level. Chinese space capabilities will improve in the coming decades, producing significant boosts in People?s Liberation Army (PLA) military capabilities. The potential for Washington to restrict access to commercial satellite imagery or satellite navigation systems during a crisis is an important rationale for China to develop independent capabilities.

Secure, redundant communications are critical if the PLA is to achieve its stated objective of winning local wars under "informationalized" conditions. China employs satellites for both civilian and military communications; many satellites carry both types of signals. Satellite signals permit mobile communications and are harder to intercept or locate compared to radio communications. Commercial communications satellite programs will enhance military communications, but will not provide access to military-specific technologies such as jamming resistance and spread-spectrum transmission.

China uses satellites for the collection of photographic and electronic intelligence. China?s imagery satellites use film canisters that are dropped back to earth for processing--a first-generation technology that does not provide near-real time intelligence. But the Sino-Brazilian Earth Resources Satellite program incorporates digital sensors that transmit images electronically. Low resolution limits the satellite?s intelligence potential, but China is developing systems with high-resolution sensors that will provide near-real time imagery. China almost certainly exploits commercial high-resolution imagery for intelligence purposes. Chinese scientists are also exploring synthetic aperture radar technologies to provide radar imagery. China?s capabilities will improve significantly as advanced technologies developed indigenously, and acquired through collaborative scientific programs, are incorporated into reconnaissance satellites.

China currently uses the U.S. global-positioning system (GPS) and the Russian Glonass system and will participate in Galileo, a European satellite navigation system. China also operates its own two-satellite Beidou system, a less sophisticated system with significant limitations for military applications. These satellites provide PLA units and weapons systems with navigation and location data that can potentially be used to improve ballistic and cruise missile accuracy and to convert "dumb bombs" into precision-guided munitions. Chinese scientists have explored using GPS signals to improve missile accuracy, but it is unclear whether current missiles employ this technology.

China?s Ability to Deny U.S. Military Use of Space

The U.S. military also makes extensive use of space for intelligence, communications, meteorology and precision targeting. Chinese analysts note that that the United States employed more than 50 military-specific satellites plus numerous commercial satellites in the 2003 Iraq war. They also highlight the extensive U.S. reliance on GPS to support precision-guided munitions. The United States? space dependence will deepen as transformation and network-centric warfare increase the importance of rapid collection and dissemination of information down to tactical units and individual soldiers. Satellites also play a crucial role in U.S. missile defenses.

As U.S. dependence on space increases, concerns have grown about the potential for adversaries to attack U.S. space assets. According to current Department of Defense (DOD) doctrine, "The United States must be able to protect its space assets ? and deny the use of space assets by its adversaries. Commanders must anticipate hostile actions that attempt to deny friendly forces access to or use of space capabilities." The 2001 Rumsfeld Commission report warned of a potential "space Pearl Harbor" if adversaries attack U.S. satellites. Underpinning these concerns is the possibility that China might target U.S. space assets in a future conflict.

Chinese strategists view U.S. dependence on space as an asymmetric vulnerability that could be exploited. As one defense analyst wrote: "for countries that can never win a war with the United States by using the method of tanks and planes, attacking the U.S. space system may be an irresistible and most tempting choice." Chinese strategists have explored ways of limiting U.S. use of space, including anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, jamming, employing lasers to blind reconnaissance satellites, and even using electro-magnetic pulses produced by a nuclear weapon to destroy satellites. A recent article highlighted Iraq?s efforts to use GPS jammers to defeat U.S. precision-guided munitions.

Chinese scientists have conducted theoretical research relevant to ASAT weapons, including the use of lasers to blind satellite sensors, kinetic kill vehicles, computations for intercepting satellites in orbit, and maneuvering small satellites into close formation. Efforts to develop high-powered lasers and mobile small-satellite launch capabilities involve technologies with both commercial and ASAT applications. China probably already has sufficient tracking and space surveillance systems to identify and track most U.S. military satellites. The extent to which interest in exploiting U.S. space dependence has translated into actual ASAT development programs remains unclear. Some reports claim that Beijing is developing microsatellites or direct-ascent weapons for ASAT purposes, but the open source literature does not provide definitive proof. However, based on Chinese strategic writings, scientific research and dual-use space activities, it is logical to assume China is pursuing an ASAT capability.

Is a Sino-American Space Race Ahead?

Efforts to exploit space for military purposes, and strategic incentives to target U.S. space assets, have put China on a collision course with a U.S. doctrine that emphasizes protecting U.S. space assets and denying the use of space by adversaries. Whether a Sino-American space race can be avoided will depend on strategic decisions by both sides and the priority placed on space control versus commercial, scientific and other military applications of space.

A key question is whether the United States can prevent potential adversaries from using space for military purposes without making its own space assets more vulnerable. United States doctrine envisions using a range of diplomatic, legal, economic and military measures to limit an adversary?s access to space. However China will almost certainly be able to use indigenous development and foreign technology to upgrade its space capabilities. Non-military means may limit Chinese access to some advanced technologies, but they will not prevent the PLA from using space.

Despite U.S. economic and technological advantages, an unrestrained space race would impose significant costs and produce few lasting strategic advantages unless the United States can dominate both offensively, by destroying an adversary?s space assets, and defensively, by protecting U.S. space assets. Otherwise, the likely result would be mutual (albeit asymmetrical) deterrence, with China building just enough ASATs to threaten U.S. space capabilities. This outcome would also legitimize anti-satellite weapons.

There are some incentives to avoid confrontation. Proliferation of space weapons would inhibit scientific cooperation and raise costs of commercial satellites. (The global trend in both sectors is towards international collaboration to reduce costs.) Actual use of anti-satellite weapons could create space debris that might damage expensive commercial satellites. Commercial users of space are therefore likely to resist efforts to deploy counter-space capabilities.

Beijing?s strategic incentives may also change over time. Mindful of the Soviet Union?s demise due to excessive military spending, Chinese leaders are wary of entering into an open-ended space race with the United States. Moreover, as Chinese military space capabilities improve and are integrated into PLA operations, the negative impact of losing Chinese space assets may eventually outweigh the potential advantages of attacking U.S. space capabilities.

Despite incentives to avoid a space race, arms control solutions face significant obstacles. China has long advocated a treaty to prevent an arms race in outer space. The joint Sino-Russian U.N. working paper, tabled in May 2002, called for a ban on weapons in orbit and on any use of force against outer space objects. The United States has been skeptical about the utility of such a treaty, believing verification would be difficult and that it might limit future missile defense options. A ban on ASAT weapons would be one means of protecting U.S. satellites, but a verifiable ban would be hard to negotiate.

U.S. policymakers must address a number of difficult questions. Is space domination an achievable, affordable and sustainable objective? Will efforts to dissuade Beijing from developing ASAT weapons require tolerating significant improvements in Chinese military space capabilities? Can arms control protect U.S. space assets? The United States has legitimate security concerns about China?s improving space capabilities, but will face tough choices in deciding on its best response.

Dr. Phillip C. Saunders is a senior research professor at the National Defense University?s Institute for National Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.

http://www.space.com/adastra/china_implications_0505.html

2016
Politics & Religion / The High Ground
« on: May 25, 2005, 01:46:49 PM »
I'm not feeling particularly apocalyptic either, though various scents I'm picking up suggests the US military is looking at space as a tactical arena very seriously, my guess being that space warfare technology is at a place where stealth warfare technology was in the late '80s. The fact China's official news organ is taking notice suggests China is concerned about ceding the strategic high ground, though I doubt there is much they can currently do about it besides bang the gong and hope to stir up arms race fears ala the ?Star Wars? hand-wringing of the ?90s.

2017
Politics & Religion / WWIV?
« on: May 25, 2005, 12:36:33 PM »
Time to start a WWIV thread?


China ready to counter US space plans
(Agencies)
Updated: 2005-05-23 09:56

China takes U.S. plans to boost its space military capabilities very seriously and is likely to respond with energetic counter-measures of her own, a leading expert on the Chinese space program told United Press International.

Chinese experts and leaders fear if the United States achieves absolute military and strategic superiority in space it could be used to intervene in China's affairs, such as the Taiwan issue, Hui Zhang, an expert on space weaponization and China's nuclear policy at the John F, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University told UPI.

He was discussing issues he had presented earlier this week in a paper to a conference on space weaponization at Airlie, Va., organized by the Washington-based Nuclear Policy Research Institute.

Chinese leaders have noted that the Taiwan issue was included as a hypothetical threat in the 2001 Rumsfeld Commission report on space weaponization. Also, in a January 2001 U.S. war-gaming exercise China was taken as an assumed enemy, Zhang said.

Hu Xiaodi, China's veteran senior negotiator on space weaponization, expressed Beijing's fears at a Committee on Peace and Disarmament panel on October 11, 2001.

"It is rather the attempt toward the domination of outer space, which is expected to serve to turn the absolute security and perpetual authority (many people call this hegemony) of one country on earth," he said. "The unilateralism and exceptionalism that are on the rise in recent months also mutually reinforce this."

Chinese strategists believe that U.S. missile-defense plans pose a great threat to China's national security, Zhang said. They believe such defenses could be used to neutralize China's nuclear deterrent and give the United States more freedom to encroach on China's sovereignty, including on Taiwan-related issues, he said.

Washington's readiness to conclude an agreement on cooperative research and the development of advanced Theater Missile Defense with Japan has fed such fears, he said.

The Chinese were also concerned about the Bush administration's 2002 Nuclear Posture Review that called for the United States to develop the ability to target mobile missiles. "A U.S. demonstration of the linkage between long-range precision strike weapons and real-time intelligence systems may dissuade a potential adversary from investing heavily in mobile ballistic missiles," it said.

Zhang said such weapons would pose a huge threat to China's future mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles.

But China would not stand passively by and do nothing if the United States pushed ahead with its ambitious plans to develop new weapons for force projection from and through space, Zhang said.

"Historically, China's sole purpose for developing its nuclear weapons was to guard itself against the threat of nuclear blackmail," he said.

"China first (intends to) pursue an arms control agreement to ban space weaponization, as it is advocating now," Zhang said. However, "If this effort fails, and if what China perceives as its legitimate security concerns are ignored, China would very likely develop responses to neutralize such a threat."

These responses would depend on the specific infrastructure of the U.S. missile defense and space weaponization programs, Zhang said. But they could include producing as many as 14 or 15 times as many ICBMs with a range of more than 7,800 miles that are able to threaten the United States, he said.

Currently, China has about 20 liquid-fueled, silo-based ICBMs with single warheads. But if the United States deployed a Ground-Based Missile Defense system with 100 to 250 ground-based interceptor rockets, China would probably be willing to build and deploy anything from 100 to almost 300 more warheads and the missiles necessary to carry them, Zhang said.
Chinese scientists and engineers would also work on passive countermeasures against missile defense, Zhang said. These could include deploying decoys and anti-simulations and reducing the radar and infrared signatures of nuclear warheads during the midcourse phase of their flights.

"These cheaper and effective countermeasures are accessible to China," Zhang said.
China also had options to protect its ICBMs from interception and destruction during their first and most vulnerable boost phase of their flights, Zhang said. These include deploying fast-burn boosters, lofting or depressing the ICBM trajectories and spoofing the interceptor missiles' tracking sensors, he said.

China could also react to boost-phase interceptors by seeking to overwhelm them through the tactic of simultaneously launching several ICBMs from a compact area, Zhang said.

Another option would be to protect the missile's body with reflective or ablative coatings. Or the missile could also be rotated in flight, he said.

"Given the inherent vulnerability of space-based weapons systems (such as space-based interceptors or space-based lasers) to more cost-effective anti-satellite, or ASAT, attacks, China could resort to ASAT weapons as an asymmetrical (defense) measure," Zhang said.

Another option would be to develop ground-based kinetic-energy weapons such as miniature homing vehicles or pellet clouds," he said.

"China should be able to develop these low-cost and relatively low-technology ASATs," he said.

However, Zhang emphasized that China would only adopt these more aggressive counter-measures if the United States pushed ahead with its own ambitious missile defense and space weaponization plans first.

Beijing still adhered to the policy set out in its 2000 national defense white paper that continued nuclear disarmament and the prevention of an arms race in outer space were preferable strategic options for both China and the United States, he said.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-05/23/content_444886.htm

2018
Politics & Religion / Knee Jerk Marketing
« on: May 23, 2005, 09:11:03 AM »
More silliness originating in Venuzuela and now passing through the knee-jerk ranks.

Shilling for Citgo
May 19th, 2005

In the U.S., it's come like a wave. All of a sudden, far-left media outlets are shilling, embarrassingly enough, for a dreaded Giant Corporation (an oil company!), Citgo, the refining and gasoline retailer once known as Cities Service. Formerly best-known for a massive neon advertising sign over Boston's Kendall Square, easily visible in nightime panoramas of the Back Bay skyline, Citgo was acquired by the Venezuelan government oil company a number of years ago.

This left wing apostacy from the doctrine of corporate original sin is ridiculous. It has happened in the last two days like a coordinated effort from some central planning authority in Venezuela. And given the out-of-the blue quality to it, that might be what it is. Common Dreams,  Pacifica Radio, Indybay,  Democrats.com  and others are suddenly hawking Citgo gas to American consumers like a 1960s-era advertising campaign, the same era giving birth to the Boston neon extravaganza, which once had preservationists urging Boston to declare it a landmark. The current left-wing shilling for Citgo is a landmark of sorts, marking a willingness to alter doctrine to suit craven considerations unseen since the the day the American Communist Party switched from urging peace with Hitler to clamoring for war, when Germany turned on its former Soviet ally.

The move comes, ironically, a couple months after Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez declared Citgo an evil organization that gave no benefit to Venezuela because (get this!) he found out that each Citgo gas station was independently owned. Anathema!

Chavez was so angry at Citgo for this that he threatened to sell the chain last February. Someone apparently whispered to him the insanity of it: getting rid of  a huge refining and marketing network in the world's largest consumer market would be lunacy. Venezuela produces a heavy high-sulfur grade crude oil, the hardest kind to sell when oil prices drop because of its higher cost of refining into gasoline. The idea was quietly dropped.
 
But it's true that Citgo doesn't make as much money as it should in an era of sky-high oil prices. There are at least three reasons for it. One is the squeeze all U.S. gasoline retailers are feeling with prices at the pump going sky-high. Consumers are buying less gasoline, so sales volume is down. Another reason is that the company is not public, but owned by the inefficient state oil company. Last March, Miguel Octavio proposed the idea of making Citgo a publicly traded company, which would bring needed capital into the company at a time of high oil prices. That lucrative opportunity's out of the question with market-phobic Chavez at the helm.

A third reason is in the atrocious way Citgo is being run. The New York Times, of all papers, published a devastating article in April about mismanagement at Citgo now that Chavez's cronies have taken control. It wasn't hard for the Times to find U.S. sources who'd quit Citgo, appalled at the pit of corruption and thuggery it was becoming. It definitely looked like Chavez's men were running it.
 
The turmoil at Citgo, though, doesn't begin to touch on the depth of destruction  Chavez has wrought on PDVSA, the once mighty Venezuelan state oil company. The state oil company is bankrupt and falling apart, its production far lower than anyone imagined. Against the leftwing flackery urging U.S. consumers to buy Citgo gas in the fringe presses, Venezuela is awash in news stories about the corruption,  mismanagement, and declining production at Venezuela's state oil company. It's unbelievable. Daniel in Yaracuy has a good rundown of the recent news stories exposing the extent of the decline. One important detail from all this: Chavez himself is extremely upset about the stories, and last Sunday railed away about the news on his personal television show in Venezuela.
 
The oil-company story that upset Chavez the most was in El Universal, by Roberto Giusti. He wrote an article citing $120 billion (with a b) in state oil revenue that's done nothing to benefit Venezuela, and much of which seems to be unaccounted for. He built it around the recent essays of Gustavo Coronel (an American Thinker contributor), who's done more than anyone to show how badly Venezuela has fallen as an oil power, citing his work. Daniel has a great photo of the enraged Chavez pointing to the news article close to where Gustavo's Coronel's name appears in the paper.
 
With Citgo and its parent company on the skids, it's no surprise that word from on high in Caracas would come down to urge consumers to buy Citgo gas. But it's a losers' effort, rather like newspapers believing their revenues would go up if they bash internet bloggers. A simple ad campaign would likely be more effective than this ridiculous "grassroots" effort.
 
But there is no doubt Venezuela is in trouble, because its oil earnings are neither matching what they could be if this was run like an ordinary oil company, nor high enough for the amount of waste and fraud its leaders feel entitled to. There just isn't enough money to go around for all the corruption they'd like. So, they are calling out their best troops, scattered sandalista shills in the U.S., to bring in the bacon for them.
 
It's pathetic.

Thanks are extended to reader Bill Ellet for his editorial suggestion.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles.php?article_id=4507

2019
Politics & Religion / Second Amendment Resource
« on: May 17, 2005, 02:51:17 PM »
Very comprehensive site devoted to second amendment and gun control issues:

http://www.guncite.com/

2020
Politics & Religion / The Business of Terrorism
« on: May 17, 2005, 10:24:39 AM »
This piece is a lot to wade through, most may want to scroll down to to the Al-Qaida section. With that said, there is a lot to be gleaned here, and more can be found at the author's website:

http://www.ex.ac.uk/politics/pol_data/tandoc/

One thread I note is that the two terrorist organizations examined here, the IRA and Al-Qaida, are both tied to the construction business. It appears this can lead to multiple funding avenues: in Ireland, for instance, it's deduced that a pro-IRA tavern might be blown up by the IRA, insurance collected, a non-licensed "safe" drinking establishment set up to fill the market void (with the funds going to the terror organization and the informal tavern serving as a recruitment ground), while an IRA established construction firm rebuilds the bombed tavern.

Next time I hear about some edifice being blown up for murky reasons, I'll be looking at it through a new lens.

This piece is well sourced and appears to be peer reviewed.

THE BUSINESS OF TERRORISM

W.A.TUPMAN

Submitted for publication by the Centre for Strategic and Global Studies, Moscow.

Some of the argument is taken from an article previously published in the Journal of Money Laundering Control
Vol 1 No 4 pp.303-311
April 1998
And two short articles published in Intersec :
"The Business of Terrorism"
Intersec, The journal of International security Vol 12
no 1 Jan 2002 pp 6-8
"The Business of Terrorism Part 2"
 Intersec The Journal of International Security Vol 12 no 6 June 2002 pp 186-8


This article explores such information as exists with regard to funding firstly in relation to the IRA, and then to activities associated with Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda.  The purpose is to demonstrate the complexity of organizations that are called ?terrorist? and to examine whether it can be demonstrated that there is convergence with organized crime groups. It begins by discussing Gambetta?s work on organized crime as a business before recording the Financial Action Task Force?s statement on sources of terrorist financing. It then looks at the variety of funding mechanisms known to have been used, first by the IRA and secondly by Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda.
 
 Any study of a terrorist organisation raises questions about the legitimacy of the state and the morality of challenging it by violent means. Although individual terrorists are charged before the courts with individual criminal acts, there is an acceptance that the phenomenon is primarily a political one and that a debate is possible over the relationship between a just cause and the employment of illegal means to achieve it. There is little study of terrorism as an economic phenomenon and the methods by which organisations fund themselves. Elsewhere, this author has argued that successful terrorist groups survive by resorting to funding  methods copied from organised crime [Tupman 1998].

This raises several interesting theoretical and practical questions. If funding follows the organised crime model, how much effect has this had on the structure of the organisations concerned? Gambetta and others have argued that organised crime is increasingly a business [Fiorenti and Peltzman 1995]. It follows the successful contemporary business model characterised by networks, or loose associations of individuals and groups. It is no longer dominated by centralised , hierarchical organisation. If a group such as the IRA has gone down the same road then how ?terrorist? is it?  An organisation may be called ?terrorist? because it engages in acts of paramilitary violence. Those organisations that survive for a significant period of time, however, do so by engaging in many activities other than paramilitary violence. Funding has already been mentioned, but they also have to recruit; they have to train; they have to engage in peaceful political activity and so on. The individuals that engage in these latter activities are much more loosely organised than the individuals that engage in the paramilitary violence, yet are associated with them in a non-hierarchical relationship.

Organised crime has also converged to some degree with "terrorist" organisation, copying the cellular structure. Increasingly it consists of networks of people who may only come together for a specific operation and the rest of the time may be engaged in completely different organisations and completely different and even legal work, especially where these individuals are lawyers or accountants. The same individuals engaged collectively in illegal activity may also simultaneously be engaged collectively in legal activity. This is equally true of the IRA. Post 1968 terrorism was based on 5 man cells, or Active Service Units [ASUs] in the Northern Ireland context. These are operationally autonomous and may have been engaged in their own fund raising as well as other activities quite independently of the central Army Council, the body that allegedly ?runs? the IRA. We need to know the degree to which these operations were audited by a central body, or whether the IRA has followed organised crime in becoming what Van Duyne has described as ?non-organised?. [Van Duyne 1993 p10]. This would also provide those attempting to control money-laundering in this area with some clues as to where to look.

Gambetta has also argued that violence is itself a business; that it is a service that can be bought and sold. Terrorist organizations are well placed to sell violence and to replace the traditional purveyors of violence to organized crime. Terrorists also need weapons. In the process they have to set up smuggling services. They thus have a second business activity from which they can sell spare capacity. It is only a small step from that realization to the linked idea that it makes sense to smuggle small volume, high value goods in order to obtain the funds necessary for the weapons themselves. Drugs and high value raw materials such as diamonds and other precious and semi-precious stones are obvious commodities.

There is a third relevant aspect of Gambetta?s analysis which began with a study of the Sicilian Mafia. Where the state is weak, it is difficult for suppliers and purchasers of goods to enforce contracts. Those who can sell violence can, in effect, become contract insures and enforcers. It is only a short step to becoming licensers of business activities. Organised crime, too, has a problem of contract enforcement. It is no good taking someone to court for failure to pay for a consignment of illegal narcotics. Terrorist movements that survive over a period of years can move into this role, particularly where they have effective control of neighbourhoods or regions.

The FATF Statement on terrorist Financing

In 2001, the Financial Action Task Force identified the following major sources of terrorist funding:

Drug trafficking
Extortion and kidnapping
Robbery
Fraud
Gambling
Smuggling and trafficking in counterfeit goods
Direct sponsorship by states
Contributions and donations
Sale of publications [legal and illegal
Legitimate business activities

Their pre-September 11th discussions concluded that with the decline in state sponsorship of terrorism, terrorist groups increasingly resort to criminal activity to raise the funds required. The world moved on with the attack on the twin towers. Consequently, FATF decided to expand its mission to focus on combating terrorist financing as well as money-laundering.This makes redundant previous disagreement about funds raised by terrorist organisations from non-criminal activity and whether this could strictly be said to constitute money-laundering. There is still disagreement about the need for special legislation. Some of the FATF experts believed existing legislation adequate for dealing with terrorist money-laundering while others thought terrorist money-laundering to be a distinct variety of money-laundering that required special measures. The origin of terrorist funds is often quite legal, but the purposes to which they are put are not. They thus can behave differently from funds derived from illicit business in that they do not have to be moved around quite so quickly. They can be invested and accumulate before being diverted to illicit purposes. This has led to the growth of perfectly legal business enterprises that in effect wholly or partly belong to terrorist organisations.

When discussing terrorism, the definitional problem still remains central. What is a terrorist organisation and how is it to be distinguished from national liberation movements? It has become more acceptable to refer to ?the paramilitaries? in the context of the Northern Ireland peace process. This has the advantage of being value-neutral. The UN also continues to find this a political conundrum, especially where the Arab-israeli dispute is concerned. The US has followed British legal practice of listing proscribed movements and includes Hezbollah, Hamas and the PFLP, without whose consent a peace settlement in the Middle East is simply unachievable. Nevertheless executive order 13224 blocks their assets and property.

THE SURVIVORS

Only a small number of the hundreds of terrorist and paramilitary groups that have existed since the 1960s have survived into the third millennium. In Northern Ireland, there is the Irish Republican Army [IRA] and  a number of Protestant paramilitaries: the Ulster Defence association [UDA] with which is associated the Ulster Freedom Fighters [UFF]; the Ulster Volunteer Force [UVF] and its breakaway movement, the Loyalist Volunteer Force [LVF]. Of these, the majority are supposed to be on cease-fire and involved in the ?peace process?, but all continue to maintain their organization and are alleged to be involved in various forms of violence.

In Spain, the Basque separatist movement, ETA [Euskadi ta Askatasuna ?Basque Fetherland and Liberty]

In Corsica, the FLNC [Front de Liberation Nationale de la Corse].

In Colombia, the FARC Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia

In Asia, the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka

In the Middle East, a number of paramilitary organizations associated with the PLO and Hezbollah.

And perhaps the first truly globalised group, the Afghan veterans association known to us as al Qaeda.

The article concentrates on the IRA and al Qaeda, because it is easier to document a variety of funding sources with which they have been involved. Later studies will examine the other groups.

 IRA FUNDRAISING

Following the Gambetta school, I have attempted to produce an analysis of the finances of the IRA in the form of a business prospectus. Previous versions of the table that follows have appeared in the proceedings of International Symposium of Organised and Economic Crime and an analysis of the funding of all UK terrorist groups has been published elsewhere [Tupman 1998]. An updated version of the prospectus follows:
 Table 1
IRA PLC
Company activities

A small international company providing executive and leisure services in the British Isles and North West Europe. Overseas offices in the United States and Australia. Courier services available to various parts of he world.

Subsidiary companies provide construction and demolition services. IRA PLC also franchises clubs and  a ?get you home? service. Private security services also provided for housing estates. Insurance quotations against bomb damage can also be brokered.

The company has recently secured a niche in the import-export market, particularly of livestock and CDs.

Statement of income
                                                                                                   ?
Contributions from overseas subsidiaries                1,500,000
Shebeen subsidiaries: bar and machines                 4,275,000
Import-export business                 2,250,000
Fire and Bomb Damage Insurance    [Protection plc]                 6,150,000
Construction                 5,000,000
Involuntary bank and post office contributions                 1,250,000
                        Total Cash               20,425,000
   
Non-cash contributions     
Demolition equipment and executive toys   Too sporadic to quantify

Statement of expenditure

Executives in UK [4]                                     Salaries                       80,000
Warehouse and Support staff UK   [20]           Salaries                      400,000
Transport and accommodation                      200,000
                                                                 sub-total                      680,000
Executives in Northern Ireland                      400,000
Warehouse and Support staff                      600,000
                                                                 sub-total                    1,000,000
                                                                BALANCE                       1,680,000
Pay-outs from executive family insurance fund                    2,000,000
Semi-retired staff in Eire              [50]                    1,000,000
                                                                BALANCE                    4,680,000
Demolition equipment and executive toys [depreciation]                    1,500,000
                                                                BALANCE                     6,180,000
Investments                   13,500,000
                                                                BALANCE                                                                                   19,680,000
Petty cash fund                        745,000
   
                                                                 TOTAL                    20,425,000
   

In discussing the income and expenditure of the IRA one is immediately involved in propaganda. It clearly suits the security forces to portray the IRA as no more than another organised crime group. This is of course to paint a distorted picture of the IRA, who are not primarily in business for the purposes of making money but who need to have ways of making money in order to stay in business. Indeed, although ?IRA-PLC? is a catchy title, it would be more correct to talk of ?Republican Movement PLC?. Irish commentators  prefer to use this latter term. The former title gives the impression that the IRA controls all branches of the Republican Movement and this cannot safely be asserted.  Sinn Fein, the women?s movement, social clubs, Gaelic Sports associations, the Catholic ex-Servicemen?s Association, prisoners' support organisations and various businesses are all organisations within a broader movement. Who controls whom, who interacts with whom and how are not only matters for research but occasionally matters disputed before the courts. The money-making ventures alluded to in the prospectus may or may not be under the control of the Army Council, may or may not pay a percentage to the Army Council and may or may not take place in areas considered to be under Republican Movement ?control?.

Related problems must appear frequently on the agenda of IRA Army Council meetings. How far should they engage in fundraising and how far in armed operations? Should the same personnel be involved in both? Should they be kept totally separate? How can they be used against the movement as propaganda? The essence of every act of terrorism is propaganda. Terrorism could be said simply to be armed propaganda. So fundraising in itself presumably should be used as a weapon to undermine British state. Fraud committed against the northern Ireland Housing Department would be legitimate, as would fraud against the Ministry of Agriculture Food and Fisheries, customs duties evasion or similar. Fraud against domestic Irish credit unions would presumably be unacceptable.

Equally dealing drugs in the UK might be acceptable where dealing drugs in Belfast would not be. In Dublin, however there are strong suspicions that IRA personnel are involved in trafficking in soft drugs, if not in street dealing. Certainly the IRA has taken a leaf out of the pages of their Basque colleagues, ETA, in gaining popular support by kneecapping or placing orders of  exile on well known drug dealers in Belfast, Derry city and elsewhere. Equally what the British security forces would call protection rackets the IRA would say are in the nature of a revolutionary tax, following the Basque model again.

Another problem in discussing this subject is the nature of the sources. Various officers of the RUC and Garda Siochana have briefed study groups led by the author in the past, but where documentary material has been shown, it has been on a confidential basis. The figures given above have had to be justified by reference to press sources, and these are often dubious. At one stage the stories were all about security forces' successes against the IRA's financial network. At another the IRA?s links with the US were exaggerated to bring pressure to bear on visiting US politicians. At all times stories are exaggerated in order to sell newspapers and the Sunday Times clearly thinks IRA scare stories keep its readers interested. Nevertheless, it has received a number of major security forces leaks over the years and devotes more space and depth to Northern Ireland than its broadsheet rivals. The  problem of verifiability needs to be borne in mind constantly when considering the pseudo data of which the IRA-PLC prospectus consists.
 
Returning to the prospectus: post office and bank raids throughout Ireland are used as acceptable ways of blooding recruits and finding out how serious their commitment may be. Unattributable briefings given the author allege that 50% of post office and bank raids in the south have some form of IRA connection. The figure in the Table above reflects the total amount stolen in post office and bank raids in Ireland and 50% of that total has been calculated and  entered in the Table as income.[Unattrib 1995]

The figure of contributions from overseas subsidiaries reflects published statements of the North American organisation Noraid which vary annually from $160,000 to $800,000. [Bishop and Mallie 1988 p297. See also McKinley pp203-218.] Added to this are contributions from the UK, Australia and Canada [McKinley pp201-3 analyses the Canada connection in some detail]. Early in the 1970s contributions were also made by Libya. [Bishop and Mallie p305, McKinley p196 gives a figure of ?5million by 1977] This is generally presented as being money raised for the welfare of prisoners? families and  is balanced in the statement of expenditure by an estimate that money to prisoners? families costs the republican movement as a whole ?2million. This illustrates the problem of distinguishing between legal and illegal aspects of the business of the republican movement. Noraid would presumably claim that to support the families of prisoners is legitimate business and in no way relevant to the IRA as an armed illegal organisation. These categories remain in my statement of income and expenditure because there have long been allegations that funds raised for prisoners' families have been used for other purposes. [McKinley p208 alleges that up to $4million per annum was actually being remitted from the US to Ireland.]

 Contributions from overseas obviously fluctuate. When the British security forces have carried out high profile operations such as the killings in Gibraltar contributions tend to rise significantly. Collections are regularly made in various public houses in English and Scottish cities as well as the more formal fundraising organisations in the United States, Canada and Australia. One and a half milllion pounds is probably on the low side for these contributions. The point needs to be made however that very little of this money would have anything to do with weaponry or bombmaking equipment in the 1980s and perhaps the 1970s because of the amount of munitions smuggled in from Libya during this period. [unattrib. 1996] Libya apparently admitted to shipping 130 tonnes of weaponry between 1985 and 1987, of which about half has been used or found by security forces.[ Sunday Times, 24 Dec 1995 journalist's claim supported by unattributable briefings.] Iran has also been accused of maintaining a ?20million slush fund in the mid to late 80s, of which some went to the IRA.[Sunday Times 21 Aug 1994]. Taking clandestine contributions from states together with declared and undeclared contributions through individual sympathisers, ?1,500,000 seems a fairly conservative figure.

"Shebeen subsidiaries" refers to one of the curious consequences of "the Troubles".  During the early 70s many pubs were bombed. As a result shebeens or illegal unlicensed drinking clubs grew up as places where the community could drink safely. In the 1970s it was very difficult to tell to what degree these were actually ?owned? by the paramilitaries on both sides. Whoever "owned" them, they certainly provided opportunities for fundraising or for money laundering. In 1989 new regulations were brought in by the authorities to try to estimate the income of gambling machines and so on and compare that with figures returned by the legal accounts of these businesses for taxation purposes. [Sunday Times 1st Aug 1993]  Again in discussing this it is difficult to decide where the Republican Movement ends and the IRA begins. Where these bars are run by committees from the community and everything is done in a legal fashion they may simply be involved in the payment of "protection" to the IRA rather than being wholly owned businesses.

The heading "Import- Export Business" covers the increasing allegations that the "IRA? is involved in the import of counterfeit computer software, videos and music CDs. The security forces apparently attribute this to their ?success? in clamping down on the drinking clubs, which they estimate cost the IRA ?7million per annum [Sunday Times 1st Aug 1993}. If this is true, the figure given in the table for income from clubs and gaming machines is an under-estimate pre-1989 and an overestimate for post-1989. When discussing illegal imports, the problem is two-fold: the degree to which the IRA shades into Northern and Southern Irish organised crime groups and the degree to which the reports in the Sunday Times are propaganda aimed at discrediting the movement with the community. On the other hand, the community is hardly going to be antagonised by the provision of the above commodities at cheap rates, so if this is propaganda, it can't be terribly effective! Nevertheless an early attempt to estimate income from these activities alleged ?1million per annum from fraud and extortion, ?2million from smuggled goods and video piracy, ?750,000 from the black taxis, ?500,000 from fruit machines , ?250,000 from charities ,and ?250,000 from overseas sympathisers [Sunday Times 12 March 1995

 UCLAF, the fraud investigation unit of the European Commission, has alleged that the IRA is also involved in the movement of cattle across the northern-southern Irish border and back again in order to attract import subsidies and  evade various forms of duty.[Fight Against Fraud 1995] If this is being carried out by individual members of families normally associated with IRA membership, it may not necessarily follow that these individuals consider the activity to be IRA activity as opposed to private enterprise. Again our friends in the Sunday Times and the Times linked the ?IRA? to a South African fraud of ?41million,[Times 20 May 1995], a US heist of $7million, [Times 15 Nov 1993], a London bond robbery of ?292 million, and a US bank fraud of ?150 million [Sunday Times 22 May 1994]. If all this is true, then the IRA could probably buy Executive Outcomes to do its job for it! The table above gives a more sober figure.

The Sunday Times also has the IRA smuggling ?2million a year in stolen antiques to dealers in the British Midlands, selling illegal growth promoters for cattle to farmers, selling counterfeit designer jeans, computer games and videos and engaging in major building -site fraud. [ Sunday Times 1st August 1993] Again, these activities may be taking place, but the IRA cannot have the time or the personnel to run them all. Much more likely is that, as with legal businesses, illegal businesses pay a ?licence fee? to the IRA to operate. This is one way of explaining the different signals coming from the security forces on drugs. Indeed, there are suggestions, that, in the case of drugs, some of this licensing was freelance. During the ceasefire, the IRA turned to attacking drug dealers to keep its activists battle-hardened, but it was possible to pay local commanders to prevent one's name being put forward for approval as a target by the Army Council [Sunday Times 31st Dec 1995].

"Fire and bomb damage insurance" refers to the allegation that various businesses pay money to the IRA to protect themselves from a bombing campaign. The Sunday Times alleged that a major bakery chain for example paid ?2million a year to the IRA through an international security consultancy to prevent its bakeries being destroyed. In fact it appears that this was not an annual payment but related to the kidnapping of Don Tidey, an executive.[Coogan 1987, p 659.] A one-off payment of ?2million  for one large business suggests that a total of ?6milllion for all businesses to insure against kidnapping and bombing is not actually that high and the income in this area may indeed be higher. Again the same paper, the Sunday Times, in one of its colour supplements, quoted a meeting of ?black taxi? drivers as being called on to raise their weekly contribution to ?8. [Sunday Times 1996] That would give a figure of ?400 per driver per year, which needs to be multiplied by the number of drivers. Similar calculations need to be made for other individual small and large businesses, legal and illegal, around Northern Ireland. But as already mentioned above, elsewhere, the same newspaper has quoted security forces sources as calculating an income of ?750,000 per annum from taxis.


The heading "Construction" refers to fraud carried out against the Northern Ireland Housing Office during the reconstruction of bombed buildings. An estimate of ?15million lost has been given in newspapers. [Times] There have also been allegations of IRA involvement in social security fraud on the British mainland. Again the problem is that anything with an Irish connection is going to be called ?IRA?.

Turning to the expenditure statement, the category of ?executives in the UK? is based on the assumption that the IRA have moved away from the totally independent 5 man cell [ASU] as their basic unit. They now use surveillance and intelligence teams whose job it is to set up particular operations. These are represented by the category ?20 warehouse and support staff?. Operatives tend to operate in pairs when actually carrying out a bombing or shooting. These are the ?4 executives?. The table is based on the assumptions that full time personnel would be provided with an income of ?20,000 per year and that the whole team would have access to a budget for hiring cars as well as stealing them and for obtaining legitimate accommodation.

These figures may be high and on the Northern Ireland side have been halved on the assumption that the individuals concerned are drawing unemployment benefit or obtaining incomes from legitimate sources. The total assumed by the security forces of full time genuinely IRA units is about 100. [?If the politicians would only let us take 100 of them out, this nonsense would all be over?].  [unattrib.]This table doubles that assumption to err deliberately on the expensive side. 50 are allocated to the South of Ireland, 24 to the UK and 100 to Northern Ireland, 40 in the executive role and 60 in the warehouse and support role. This may be a complete misunderstanding of the way the IRA operates and the idea that there genuinely are 100 full time personnel is probably be a security forces fantasy. Such an assumption leads to the conclusion that all that has to be done in Northern Ireland is to lock up 100 people and everything will stop.

As long as the Republican Movement remains as multi-faceted as it is at present, this is clearly not the case and the notion that there is such a thing as a full time IRA operative is not borne out by such memoirs as have been produced from within the organisation.[Collins 1997 ] In fact a survey produced in New Society in the late 1970s argued that something like three quarters of all the personnel in prison for IRA membership in the north of Ireland had actually been in work at the time of their imprisonment. [New Society 1976] The notion that the IRA consists of unemployed personnel hanging around street corners waiting for a bombing to be suggested is a newspaper fantasy rather than a security forces one.

The obvious point to be deduced from the Table is that the IRA is actually quite a cheap organisation to run. As the Libyan weapons and explosives cache is exhausted this will of course change. The second point is that it is a profitable operation. Somewhere those profits have been invested. The figures given are of course purely speculative, and other, more official sources would put the figure at ?10 million profit per annum [unattrib 1995], whereas this table estimates it as closer to ?15 million. To reiterate a word of caution, these figures probably refer to the Republican Movement as a whole, and it may or may not be mistaken to leave the reader with the impression that the IRA runs the whole Republican Movement.

Who taught whom what? Studying in the universities of crime

The IRA has a long history of involvement with various forms of what we now call money laundering and fraud. Back in the 1916-22 period money was raised for the independence of Ireland and according to Tim Pat Coogan?s biography of Eamonn de Valera a large proportion of it was siphoned off by de Valera to found a newspaper under his own control. Not only did it remain under his own political control but also, as the majority share holder, it became his family?s business and this lasted right through into the early 1960s. [T.P.Coogan 1993 pp417-21]  Tim Pat Coogan discusses the legality and morality of this. He also discusses the role of the famous American fundraiser Joe McGarrity who kept the IRA going during the 30s and 40s.[Coogan 1993 pp193-4] There is further discussion of the role of members of the Irish government in the setting up, funding and arming of the IRA after 1968 in another of Tim Pat Coogan?s books.[ Coogan  1987  ]

Certainly the leaders of the Provisional IRA had mostly been in prison during the 1956-62 campaign and mostly held in English jails because of a refusal to treat them as political prisoners. [ Coogan 1987 }Without reading their memoirs, if they ever come out, it is impossible to know to what extent they formed links with English and Scottish criminals during that period.  Joe Cahill, allegedly the IRA?s financial expert, was in jail during this period. [Sunday Times 28 March 1993]. It is more certain however that the members of the IRA and other republican groups arrested during the mainland campaign after 1973 and held in British and Irish jails rather than the H-blocks would have had the opportunity to make links with organised crime circles and to learn their techniques. The criminal spirit of the 70s and 80s was certainly entrepreneurship . Research may eventually demonstrate that the real intermediaries were the cannabis dealers of the early 1970s who saw themselves as part of an ideological commitment to change society rather than as simply involved in the process of making money. Howard Marks? autobiography suggests that such thoughts did motivate people like himself and entrepreneurs in the cities of Cork, Limerick, Dublin would almost certainly have been motivated similarly. His autobiography also describes a network of connections between himself, Jim McCann of the IRA and  Dutch interests in the early 1970s. [Marks 1996 pp77-107]

He actually claims to have pointed out to McCann that , if you can smuggle arms you can smuggle drugs. The principle was reversed when the last four shipments of arms from Libya were brought in by a professional smuggler, who was paid a ?100,000 fee for arranging shipment. [Unattrib. 1995] The US fiasco alluded to above also involved an arrangement with an alleged professional arms dealer. [Bishop and Mallie] The arms trade is thus another source of contacts between terrorism and organised crime.

Increasingly in Dublin, Limerick and to a lesser extent other towns in Ireland the IRA finds itself having to take policy decisions about its relationship with domestically based organised crime. The shooting of Martin Cahill ?the General? in Dublin in 1994 by the IRA was a clear warning to organised crime that the true holders of the monopoly of violence were neither the state nor the ?state within the state? of nonpolitical organised crime but the provisional IRA. [Independent 12 May 1996]

In addition, although it was found by the courts to be a case of CIA entrapment, during a US trial links were claimed between the American end of the Republican Movement and a figure ?close to the Mafia? in a conspiracy to supply arms to the IRA. The USA is thus another possible place where connections to organised crime might have been created. [Bishop and Mallie 1988 p 298]

The role of IRA members in the drugs business needs more research. Marks suggests that members of the IRA were involved in smuggling marijuana, an "acceptable" drug. It is alleged that the Provisionals did briefly lose a lot of street credibility in the 70s when they were identified with heroin dealing in Belfast ghettoes and very quickly had to remove themselves from the trade. [unattrib ] That they were involved in heroin suggests that they had been involved in other drugs previously and certainly it has been alleged that they remain involved in trafficking and wholesaling but not in retailing and street dealing both south and north of the border. This has equally been alleged of Protestant paramilitaries. There have been further allegations that in the drug trade all the paramilitaries actually work together and have the turf well divided up in northern Ireland.[unattrib ] Protestant paramilitary organisation would presumably also reach into the west of Scotland just as IRA organisation reaches down into the south of Ireland. If the intelligence organisations of the paramilitaries are as efficient as they are supposed to be, it is hard to believe that drugs can be sold in the areas under their control without their knowledge. The introduction of Ecstasy as a youth drug of choice has created new opportunities for profit, not only from selling the drug but by providing secure venues for ?raves? to take place. Ecstasy has broader ideological acceptance in the community. It is seen as being in the same category as marijuana rather than heroin.


More recently there is evidence of the emergence of a network of different individuals specialising in different roles. To that extent the structure of the IRA appears to be converging with the changing structure of organised crime. A network of specialists is coordinated by a central planner for a one-off purpose or for a more long term enterprise. Just as organised crime has its ?enforcers?, its specialists in violence, so too do the IRA. Equally organised crime has its smuggling or transportation specialists. Here the IRA either has its own or buys in a specialist from organised crime, as it did to move the consignment of arms and explosives from Libya. [unattrib 1995]. This might point to a centralised laundering operation via a financial specialist employed for the purpose either in the USA or Caribbean.

There is, thus, some evidence that the IRA has moved into contract enforcement and licensing for those involved in illicit businesses in both Northern and Southern Ireland. There is evidence of organizational change, but changes in the organization of ?terrorist? incidents have more to do with security requirements than with the impact of fund-raising activities. One of the most interesting aspects of the IRA is the way in which it has succeeded in maintaining its political priorities despite its ventures into a variety of questionable fund-raising areas. The mechanisms by which it preserves a high degree of integrity and thereby legitimacy with significant sections of the Catholic community in Northern Ireland, Southern Ireland and the United States require further study.



OSAMA BIN LADEN AND AL QAEDA


Al Qaida's funding and Osama bin Laden's business affairs are difficult to disentangle as they involve organizations which perform totally legitimate functions as well as being used as conduit for his activities. He has used the hawala system as well as Islamic banking. ?His? companies have made profits from legitimate business. Companies such as al Taqwa and al Barakat have been added to the list of proscribed organisations by the USA under suspicion that they are used by al Qaida for the movement of money and that they may even pay a proportion of their profits to bin-Laden?s central bankroll. Nevertheless, closing them down will harm their smaller customers, in particular the ability of the Somali overseas workforce to repatriate funds to their families.

Extortion from private individuals has taken place on a scale unimaginable in the West to the tune of over $1 million per individual. Wealthy individuals in the Islamic world now have to choose between risks: detection by the US or murder by al-Qaida. Equally charitable donations by governments to foundations which dole out money to Islamic causes will have to be more carefully monitored by the donors as will the performance of the charities themselves.

At first sight bin Laden has a complex track record. Honey traders, internet providers, hawala banking, cattle breeding, shrimp boats, construction, import-export, stock market trading and perhaps manipulation, even drug smuggling and other illegal businesses all had a place in his empire. He is alleged to have spent large sums on infrastructural projects for governments. Before his expulsion he carried out many philanthropic projects for the Sudanese government and more recently is alleged to have bankrolled the Taliban. He has run training camps and allegedly put armies into the field in Chechnya, Bosnia and Kosovo as well as Afghanistan. Individual terrorist cells seem to have been kept on a shoestring, resorting to credit card and cheque fraud to stay operational. Cells even repatriated money to the Middle East, the reverse of what might have been expected. The other organisations associated with al-Qaida have still to be investigated financially and may present a different picture. If anyone emerges from the caves around Jalalabad and Kandahar to employ lawyers to fight the confiscation of assets around the world, it will be a truly fascinating case. The business of terrorism appears to have been raised to a new plateau.  

Al-Qaida

Al Qaida was formed in 1988. In 1998 Osama Bin Laden formed an umbrella organisation called "The Islamic World Front for the struggle against the Jews and the Crusaders" [ Al-Jabhah al-Islamiyyah al-'Alamiyah li-Qital al-Yahud wal-Salibiyyin]. This organisation included the Egyptian groups al-Gama'a al-Islamiyya and al-Jihad, the Egyptian Armed Group, the Pakistan Scholars Society, the Partisans Movement in Kashmir, the Jihad movement in Bangladesh and the Afghan military wing of the "Advice and Reform" commission led by bin Laden himself. This represented a move from cooperation between organisations to a new level. A shura or consultative council was established led by Osama Bin Laden. An Arab security service has estimated that Al-Qaida has 2,830 members of which 594 are Egyptians, 410 Jordanians, 291 Yemenis, 255 Iraqis, 162 Syrians, 177 Algerians, 111 Sudanese, 63 Tunisians, 53 Moroccans and 32 Palestinians.   The Centre for Non-proliferation Studies commenting on these figures says that they should be taken as an indication of the proportions of the origins of membership, not as an exact count. To these figures need to be added Pakistanis, Kashmiris, Chechens, and links with Bosnians, Albanians and Philipinos. Saudi Arabians are also absent. All in all a perfect network for laundering funds.

It needs to be borne in mind, therefore, that the wider structure of al-Qaida involves a number of pre-existing groups with their own sources of funding as well as Osama bin Laden's personal financial empire.

OSAMA BIN LADEN

In Saudi Arabia before Afghanistan

His family is rich. His father owned a major construction company. He is, however, only one of 52 siblings. The size of his personal fortune during the pre-Afghanistan period is a matter of dispute. Figures range from $30 million to $300 million.

In Afghanistan for the first time

He and his colleagues are alleged to have raised money both from his family and from other important Saudi families, and from others in the Gulf for the struggle against the USSR and the regime it had imposed after 1978. the Pakistan intelligence service was involved There are even alleged to have been donations from the US intelligence services. Funding from Islamic governments and charities continued into the 1990s with the war in Bosnia and in Chechnya and even Albania/Kosovo. Most of this money was channelled through either pre-existing Islamic humanitarian aid organisations or, one created specially for the purpose and controlled by himself and his associates. The struggle to create independent, and possibly Islamic states, from the states that succeeded Communism was seen by many as a legitimate cause.

He emerged from Afghanistan with an international network of veterans who had difficulty adapting to a peaceful existence.

In Saudi Arabia after Afghanistan and perhaps in Somalia

It was the American intervention in Somalia that turned bin Laden into an enemy of the USA. In Afghanistan, Chechnya and perhaps even Bosnia and Albania, his goals had been congruent either with mainstream US foreign policy or with that of individual American right-wingers. It is probably for this reason as well as the involvement of Gulf and other interests that it is fairly difficult to obtain hard information on funding before this period. Funding to the Balkans is alleged to have been funneled through the Albanian-Arab Islamic Bank and the Advisory and Reformation Committee, established London 1994.
 
In the Sudan 1991-6

The main source of information for this period is a tainted one: the supergrass Jamal Ahmed Al-Fadl and the evidence he gave in the trial of bin Laden's associates in Manhattan in early 2001. It is tainted because he admits he had to flee al Qaida after he was discovered to have embezzled some of its funds. It also suffers the same problems as all defector testimony: the danger of repeating a story that his interrogators want to hear and the danger of exaggerating what he knows in order to increase his importance. Nevertheless, it is the most important published source for this period.

In 1991 bin Laden was expelled from Saudi Arabia. He is alleged to have received anywhere between $30 and $300 million before being cut off by the family. Subsequent investigation has failed to demonstrate any further financial link to his family. He moved to Sudan and invested in commercial enterprises and infrastructural projects. He was highly valued by the regime and is unusual for a terrorist in that both in the Sudan and in Afghanistan he has a track record of subsidising governments in their political and economic programmes. In this period he was associated with:

? A Construction company: el-Hijrah for Construction and Development Ltd.
? Wadi al-Aqiq co. an export-import company
? Taba Investment Co. Ltd. Which dealt in global stock markets
? Part-owner of the el-Shamal Islamic Bank
 
? He also ran several farms, raising peanuts sunflowers etc., which were also used as training camps for terrorists. In addition, there were:
? Laden International Import-Export Company
? a Bakery
? a Furniture company
? Bank of Zoological Resource cattle-breeding programme
? International al-Ikhlar Co. making honey and other sweets

Because of sanctions against Sudan, his financial committee had to learn how to disguise the origin of his products routing them through various countries, including Cyprus. He claimed to have lost $150 million on farming and construction projects while in the Sudan. Nevertheless, there is evidence of a world-wide empire: ostrich farms and shrimp boats in Kenya, forests in Turkey, diamond mining in Africa, agriculture in Tajikistan. The minor enterprises were themselves used as cover for terrorist operations. All enterprises in Sudan were supposedly liquidated when he left [expelled] in 1996.

The picture that emerges from this period is one of a large diversified enterprise with highly-paid specialists at the top. The central bureaucracy expanded faster than the income and this may be why subsequent organisation has appeared to be more penny-pinching. It is worth noting that a construction company is, by chance, central to the operation. His father had founded such a company, and bin Laden?s original expertise was in that area. Construction work was also related to the Republican movement, again presumably because so many Irishmen went to Britain to do casual work in the building trade. Their return during the early years of Thatcher, when infrastructural programmes were choked off to cut government spending may simply have created a need to institute a job-creation programme. If you can plant bombs that can destroy buildings, you can create construction opportunities. You can also create insurance fraud for proprietors who would like a refurbishment programme.

Bin Laden, however, was, during his time in the Sudan, trading skills in upgrading infrastructure for a sanctuary from which operations can be planned and fighters trained. It could be argued that these businesses would not have been a primary focus of interest for his group. Skills learnt, however, would become useful in unexpected ways. In a globalised political system, many things other than weapons need to be transported: money, information, orders and potential soldiers. These required new businesses and created new business opportunities.

In Afghanistan for the second time1996-2001

By the time bin-Laden left the Sudan, his money was supposed to be scattered around Europe and Arab world. For example, the Ottawa Sun on the 8th November 2001 announced that the investigation into the activities of al Barakaat and al Taqwa in Canada had discovered Internet Service Providers linked to US companies alleged to have provided al-Qaida terrorists with Internet service, secure telephone communications and other ways of sharing information. The crash in IT-related companies may have affected the total assets of Al Qaida, but it is worth noting that owning an ISP is an excellent way to guarantee the security of internal communication. Al Barakaat and al Taqwa have a number of variants in a number of countries, and al Taqa in Lugano had changed its name to Nada Management early in 2001.

Al Qaida and the other groups in the Front have continued to tap various Islamic charitable and relief organisations for funds. Funding for Chehchen fighters is alleged by Al Fadl to have been $1500 per head. The Wafa Humanitarian Organisation has been identified by the US Treasury as one of the organisations supporting terrorism.

Private individuals have continued to donate money, either because they believe in the cause or to avoid unpleasant consequences [ie protection money]. This may well be the single largest source of funding for the movement and needs to be addressed. Such individuals will need to be guaranteed protection if they are both to come forward and give an account of the moneys passed to al Qaida and to feel safe enough to discontinue paying. Some of these people are victims of extortion, not necessarily zealots.

As with the IRA, there have been continuous whispers of al Qaida association with drug trafficking, mostly opium from Afghanistan. Al Qaida militants are alleged to have acted as smugglers or smugglers escorts. It is not yet known as to how high a degree opium has been used as a funding source, but there was no ideological problem with the Canadian and North American cell resorting to petty crime such as credit card fraud to fund itself during 2000. Al Qaida morality seems to be extremely flexible when it comes to Western-regarding behaviour.

AFTER AFGHANISTAN AND THE FALL OF THE TALIBAN

We must beware of turning Osama bin Laden into a Superman. Successful terrorist organisations have had to solve the funding problem. Analysis of the Republican movement suggested that it was making a profit of ?10-15 million per annum durin the 1990s. ETA still extracts a 10% levy on income from its supporters. Given the personal funds with which bin Laden and his associates started, they will have been able to achieve more. They have been more successful at using new businesses as cover for their activities and, so far, at obtaining safe havens in individual states. Whoever succeeds both bin Laden and Al Qaida will develop these strategies further and will learn from organised crime in their turn.

The major problem in discussing this period is a lack of knowledge of al Qaeda's aims, who is running it on a day to day basis and whether the Afghanistan theatre needs to be distinguished from other theatres around the world. Without a clear notion of the enemy's goals, it is rather difficult to measure the effectiveness of the response.

Al Qaeda's complex goals

It has been argued that bin Laden may actually want the USA to have a military presence in Afghanistan, Kirgizia, Turkmenstan, Georgia and other former Soviet republics, because he wishes to refight the war against the USSR that he considers he and his brethren won. He, or whoever is in charge, be it Mullah Omar [if the resistance in Afghanistan is a matter for the Taliban, rather than al Qaeda] or others, still possess whatever funds were in the Afghan Government Treasury when the Taliban left. These have presumably passed through one of Afghanistan's neighbours since then. Finance will come from and through the tribal areas of Pakistan.

But in addition to funding a guerilla war in Central Asia, it must be assumed that the individual groups comprising al Qaeda continue to require funding for their domestic causes, be these in North Africa, East Africa, South East Asia the Caucasus, the Balkans or the Indian sub-continent. Arms, training and subsistence all cost money, although many were already in place at the fall of the Afghan cities. It is unclear how many al Qaeda veterans made their way home and how many have stayed to fight in Afghanistan. Individual soldiers in individual conflicts were funded through the charitable foundations and expansion of these numbers should have been disrupted by the steps taken after September 11th.

Next, it must be assumed that funding is required for the cells that remain in Western Europe and the USA. Western Europe still remains a recruitment target and perhaps a target for a spectacular atrocity, as does the USA. The problem is predicting the nature of the planned atrocity and the funding that might be required to achieve it. Previous operations suggest a diversity of modus operandi, including petty fraud and the use of businesses as cover.

Although the war on terrorism seeks to identify and confiscate the assets of al Qaeda, it does not appear to be Osama bin Laden's assets that have been successfully identified and seized so far. Concentration has been on routes along which funds have travelled. In the process of blocking these, many innocent people have found themselves with frozen accounts. There was a global emergency in September 2001 which justified harsh measures. But by the middle of 2002 we should have moved to more sophisticated instruments so as to reduce potential pools of recruitment for terrorism.

The US Treasury, May 3rd 2002, summarised the blocking of assets of 210 alleged Terrorist-related entities and individuals in the US as amounting to $34 million and by its international partners as $82 million, totalling $116 million worldwide. So far, 161 countries and jurisdictions have been involved in this campaign. The UN at the end of March, estimated that 144 countries had been involved in blocking $103.8 million in assets of which approximately half represents assets connected with Osama bin laden and Al-Qaida. The majority of these funds had been blocked by December 2001. If there are new leads, then they are being kept very quiet. This may be because it has been realised that money trails provide intelligence and help to identify possible sleepers and cells.

The Underground banking connection

A large amount of the assets blocked belong to al Barakaat and al Taqwa. Al Barakaat is a Somali banking and telecommunications group. It may well be that al Qaeda took advantage of its services, but its closure has created wider problems for Somalis overseas, who used it to send funds home and to communicate with relatives. According to the BBC [12th March 2002], the transitional Somali government has proposed that an American Bank should take it over in order to unfreeze the thousands of accounts of individuals who have no link to al-Qaeda. According to the US Treasury's own News Release of March 11th, "disruption to al Barakaat's worldwide cash flows could be as high as $300 to 400 million per year. Of that?$15 to $20 million per year would have gone to terrorist organisations."  There are several articles disputing this in the media. Colin Powell has claimed that 5% of turnover was going to Al Qaeda, but this would have left very little operating profit. Al Barakaat may simply be unfortunate in its Somali connection.

Al- Barakaat appears to be a legitimate business that has been used by terrorists for money-laundering. Al Taqwa, according to Lucy Komisar in an article in Salon, March 2002
[ http://www.salon.com/tech/feature/2002/03/15/al_taqwa/print.html ],
 is a more murky organisation and has been under investigation by the Italian secret Service and others since the mid-1990s. Its shareholders, however, include prominent figures from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. With headquarters in Lugano, Switzerland and renamed the Nada Management Organisation after its president, it is or was primarily a hawala operation. But it is alleged to have handled funds for the PLO, Hamas, the Algerian GIA, and the Egyptian Gama'a al-Islamiya as well as former Afghan Mujahedin with a connection to bin Laden. This information was originally published in 1995 in the Swiss newsweekly Facts.

Other assets blocked belong to charities; in December 2001, the assets of "the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development" were frozen. This was linked to Hamas, not to al-Qaeda. In March 2002 the Somali and Bosnia-Herzegovina branches of Al-Haramain Islamic Foundation were blocked jointly by the US and Saudi Arabia. These were linked, allegedly to al-Qaeda, the Somali group Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya and to the Egyptian group Al-Gama'at Al-Islamiyya. Suspicions were aroused from study of the accounts that money was being skimmed for the benefit of radical Islamic movements elsewhere.

The Benevolence International Foundation of Chicago has also been accused and is involved in a federal court case there with allegations of specific involvement in operations in Bosnia. Under Operation Green Quest a number of other organisations have been raided and evidence gathered that will result in a series of further prosecutions.


Commodity smuggling and money moving- the tanzanite saga

On November 16th the Wall Street Journal published a piece by Robert Block and Daniel Pearl ("Much-Smuggled Gem Called Tanzanite Helps Bin Laden Supporters)." It claimed that tanzanite, a rare gem that comes from a small area near the base of Mt. Kiliminjaro, has been used by operatives of the Bin Laden network as a means of raising funds. Its popularity stems from the fact that Kate Winslet wore a necklace of it in the film "Titanic". It is high value, and easily transportable, like diamonds or cocaine and can thus be used as a substitute currency to move purchasing power from one economy t another. It now has a $380 million annual market in the United States.

It is alleged, partly as a result of evidence from the diary of Wadi el Haga, on  trial for the bombings of US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam,  that a group of fundamentalist Muslim middlemen have taken control of a considerable share of the trade in tanzanite stones, which they channel through free trade zones in places like Dubai and Hong Kong, setting aside the profits for Al Qaeda and other fundamentalist Islamic networks and projects. The jewellry industry hotly denies that this is the case, presumably because the market would be badly hit if wearing tanzanite turned out to involve an unpatriotic act. Small miners in Tanzania have accused the South African company AfGem of leaking the stories in order to corner the market by insisting that all gems are branded for identification purposes, using technology that only it possesses. Pearl, of course, was later murdered in Pakistan by an al Qaeda associate.

It is difficult to know how to take the tanzanite story. It has the same ability to arouse incredulity as the allegation that Al Qaeda had a monopoly on the honey market in East Africa and the Gulf, or at least skimmed a percentage off the profits. But the victims of the embargo on sales of tanzanite by Tiffanys and the other big gemstone outlets of the US are small miners not Osama bin Laden.

Despite the tales told by defectors and other individuals turned State's evidence, al Qaeda seemed to adopt a policy post-Sudan of making each operation self-financing. On 23rd May, a UN group of experts warned that al_Qaeda appeared "to have diversified the base and security of their finances by acquiring valuable commodities and using the Internet to move money." We need to anticipate their methods, not simply respond to what they did in the past. Generals tend to fight the last war, which is a guaranteed way of losing the present one.

:CONCLUSION


The IRA has had to follow the changing fashions of organised crime to continue raising money. At one time armed robbers were the aristocracy of organised crime and for a period the IRA obtained its funding by robberies. As mentioned above this still goes on, but like organised crime, the IRA flirted with drugs and now has followed organised crime into the much lower risk area of fraud, especially cross border fraud and the importing of counterfeit products. It has also been suggested that, in order to obtain guns, vehicles and forged documentation, IRA operatives on the British mainland have begun to pretend to be ?normal? criminals and have ?infiltrated the criminal infrastructure?. [Independent 4 Mar 1996] But an equal possibility is that organised crime has infiltrated the IRA. In a world of interpenetrating networks, it is difficult to know who controls whom. It will make an interesting court case.  

On the other hand, the IRA has deliberately engaged in what it calls ?economic warfare? since the early 1970s. It may be that its ?profits? have been used to regenerate places like Derry and West Belfast and that ?one man?s construction fraud is another man?s job creation scheme. The relationship between business activities and organization is not a unideterminal one. The need to raise money can also produce opportunities to provide services where the state is failing. Contract reinforcement is not the only role played by the modern state. Security involves income now as well as freedom from violence. The picture is more complex than that of Nineteenth Century Italy.

Al Qaeda/ bin Laden has also made a virtue of economic necessity. For individual operations, companies have been set up to provide operational cover as well as income. Because the capital available has been greater, possibly more than any paramilitary group has ever had at its disposal, the businesses created have been more imaginative and wider-ranging in their technology and global scope. If the rumour of stock market movements ahead of 9/11 is true, then it may be possible to organize future operations, or even to threaten future operations, such as to make money out of the consequent movement in stock market prices. Just like the IRA, though, al Qaeda remains more than a business. Both are political organizations who require money but have managed to keep fund-raising subordinate to their political goals.

Such evidence as exists suggests that the form of organisation adopted by both organised crime and terrorism is also dictated by the nature of police response. The interest in cellular structure and network arrangements is partly to make prosecution on the basis of "shared purpose" difficult to prove. The nature of business will affect the organisational structures of organised crime as a whole, but only the fund-raising structures of terrorist-related movements. The structure of the coercive apparatus will be governed by the relationship between the number required to deliver a violent event and the requirements of internal security. The specialised nature of a paramilitary arm of a political movement may make it attractive for organised crime to employ such a group for the purpose of contract enforcement on an occasional basis. There is no evidence of this as yet, although there have occasionally been allegations that individuals have been used to provide armed  escort for consignments. As well as violence, the IRA has available for hire a relatively large network of disciplined individuals who can launder small sums through a multitude of bank accounts without triggering the existing alert systems, which are oriented to noticing the movement of relatively large sums.

Obviously, a great deal of further research is required, and the information on which much of this article is based is both controversial and unreliable. That has not stopped the international law enforcement community responding to 9/11 with anti-terrorist legislation providing for the confiscation of assets related to terrorism. Where long-lived terrorist groups rely on wider popular movements to sustain and support them, a double duty of care lies upon a banker or accountant to assess the ultimate source of the funds passing through accounts. Relationships between the components of these groups, who may be families, associates or merely resident in the same area, are complex and non-hierarchical. Freezing and confiscating assets without distinguishing between the innocent user and the ?terrorist? will create more support for the terrorists in the long run.

A final area of interest for students of money-laundering is the question, how do the IRA and al Qaeda move their funds around? If they have set up  independent systems are they available for use by other organisations, for a price. This is possibly yet another are where necessity has created another business opportunity. The lesson of Gambetta?s study of Sicily is that where the state cannot provide

2021
Politics & Religion / We the Well-armed People
« on: May 16, 2005, 07:01:15 PM »
Article published May 15, 2005
In praise of not being a good victim

Ever notice that even courage is subject to a double standard? We honor those who overcome the innate fear of death to act in defense of our country. Yet, those who do likewise in defense of life and property are frequently admonished for not being good victims. People like Tony Nader must find this hard to take.

Nader was working one April evening at Bella Variety, a convenience store on Chestnut Street in Nashua. Customers present knew Nader carried a sidearm, but there?s always some doofus who doesn?t get the word.

Sure enough, a would-be robber wielding a revolver and wearing a bandana charged through the door. He threw a bag on the counter and yelled at Nader to fill it with cash.

While threatening to kill everybody, the robber stuck his gun in Nader?s face. To motivate Nader, the gunman punctuated his threats with profanity and cocked the revolver.

Nader picked up the bag as though he were going to comply with the demand. Instead, he dropped it. This distracted the gunman for an instant. That?s all Nader needed to grab the robber?s pistol with one hand and pull the semiautomatic from his belt with the other.

When faced with resistance, the robber?s tough-guy facade wilted like an over-watered petunia. He pulled away and ran. Nader gave chase, but called it quits.

Not so for the robber. He went where victims are more cooperative and held up another market.

One might be forgiven for thinking Nader?s bravery would at least be mentioned by someone. Not in today?s society. What Nader did was politically incorrect.

Nashua police implied Nader should have been a good victim and freely given his property to the criminal. The spokesman said, ?The more weapons become involved, the more chance somebody could get hurt.?

Obviously, the spokesman was regurgitating department policy, but is insisting that people always be good, defenseless victims sound advice? An Internet search on convenience store robberies raises serious doubts. Numerous incidents are documented in which robbers murdered helpless and compliant victims for reasons known only to those robbers.

In Westland, Mich., Michael Lamont Schofield robbed a convenience store. In the process he killed four people and wounded two others. His girlfriend, Leslie Gordon, acted as lookout while Schofield methodically fired one shot into each of the two unarmed clerks and four customers. That they were all good victims while they waited to die was irrelevant to the killers.

In another instance, two men killed an unarmed convenience store clerk in Houston, Texas. Neighbors told investigators the clerk was a nervous person in fear of the local crime rate. They said he?d have given no resistance and would have given his money over freely. Once again, being a good victim didn?t matter to the criminals.

These and other such stories lead to an ominous conclusion: criminals are incapable of feeling sympathy for their victims. Hence, posing no threat holds little promise of avoiding harm. And that?s not all. In many cases, the absence of a threat actually attracts criminals.

John Lott is a former economics and law professor at the University of Chicago. In his book, ?More Guns, Less Crime,? he argues that very point. It was exemplified when Minnesota?s recently adopted concealed carry law went into effect.

Most businesspeople quickly armed themselves, but a minority who equated guns with evil were appalled. To protest their armed colleagues, they put up signs proclaiming their businesses ?gun free.? Guess where the criminals went.

After several armed robberies in gun-free stores the intellectual light went on. Anti-gun proprietors quietly stopped advertising the fact they were not armed.

However, this change of heart pales beside that of the nationally acclaimed Charleston, S.C., Police Chief Reuben Greenberg. He had always viewed citizens defending themselves with firearms negatively.

That changed when Greenberg encountered evidence contrary to his views. A good example is the record of one downtown business in a high-crime area. Despite its location, it hadn?t been held up in 20 years. Greenberg found criminals avoided it because they were aware the owner and the employees all packed pistols.

The radical, UC-Berkely educated Greenberg reassessed his self-defense position. Now, he no longer discourages those who wish to protect themselves. This inflames some people and impresses others. Regardless, it shows that Charleston?s first black police chief is not a prisoner of ideology. If only this were true of more law enforcement people.

It certainly wasn?t true of the Nashua police spokesman, who said of Nader?s action, ?Not only do we not encourage it, we seriously frown on it.? In making that remark he not only showed contempt for Nader?s courage, but he also conveyed a veiled threat to others who might someday be faced with the choice of defending their lives or becoming good victims.

That?s just more grief for people in crime-risky occupations to worry about, but for Tony Nader it shouldn?t be a concern. He?s already established that Bella Variety is not a good place to rob.

2022
Politics & Religion / Long Line
« on: May 16, 2005, 05:44:39 AM »
Tom sez:

Quote
In closing also let me wish you good luck in staying out of prison for something you believe in!


My misspent youth is a couple decades behind me so I don't expect to occupy a cell anytime soon. Unless dissing government policy becomes a crime, in which case I'll doubtless be invited to join a very long line.

2023
Politics & Religion / Libertarian themes
« on: May 15, 2005, 01:08:53 PM »
Tom avers:

Quote
Woof buzwardo, I briefly scrolled the fbi.org link and didn't see anything that even remotly eluded to the increase in marijuana busts.


Like I said, it?s raw data. You can pour through it if you?d like and draw your own conclusions. I note the Excel file you can find at:

http://www.fbi.gov/filelink.html?file=/ucr/cius_03/xl/03tbl69.xls

breaks down crime by state and category. Folks like those at the Sentencing Project, whose data you did not comment on, then take that information, render and analyze it. Seeing how I don?t have the time, motivation, or mathematical skills to run my own data analysis, I?m content to use the results of those who do, at least until their analysis is thrown into question. Do you dispute the Sentencing Project?s data?

An aside: I note often when I post a piece I?m then asked to account for the author?s methodology. Sometimes the germane aspects are easily gleaned from the piece itself, other times a second raw data source isn?t hard to find, while in other instances the post is clearly an opinion piece lending itself only to speculation rather than empiric debate.

Bottom line is I?m just another Internet wanderer posting his occasional warblings. If someone wants to pay me to I?d be glad to repost cited material, chase down primary sources, and attempt to interview authors. Until someone with the requisite magnanimity arises, though, I?m not inclined to put more effort into answering questions than the folks who post ?em do.


Quote
Thats ok. You talk of the penalty fitting the crime, in Ohio its a misdemeanor of 100 dollar fine for possesion of 112 grams or less. I don't find that to be extremly harsh  . I don't think they haul you away in handcuffs for it either. Pretty sure its just a ticket and on your way type situation.(do you find this harsh?)


Do we really want to start scrambling up this slope? Can you abide a year in jail for someone holding 112.25 grams? Are the benefits of incarcerating someone for the substances they imbibe worth the costs of turning a taxpayer into a felon? Are the deaths and health issues caused by the poor quality control the current regimen foists a net benefit for society? Do we really want to line the pockets of distant drug lords and create lucrative markets our enemies can exploit to fund their attacks against our citizens? If a hundred bucks is the issue, I say suck it up. Alas I think the equation is a lot more vast and complex.

 
Quote
When you refer to "all" the laws being enforced i asume your speaking of some law written two hundred years ago type thing. Like beating your wife on the county court steps. Then the answer is of course not.

 If your refering to the laws that everyone is aware of and knows the penaltys for and knows are illegal, like the drug laws. yea i want them enforced.


And who makes the call about what ?everyone is aware? of? Ever taken a look at the Annotated Code of the United States? Fills a shelf or two in most libraries. Add on the tomes generated by sundry states and municipalities and the reading list gets kinda long. Bottom line is that I don?t think a law?s efficacy can be measured by who understands what about it. I think analyzing benefits and costs associated with a given law is a much better measure and by that yardstick I?d argue American drug laws are an utter abomination.

Quote
Dosen't my desire to have our drug laws enforced make me as much a liberatarian as your desire to have them challenged and broken?

If not then please give me your definition of a libertarian.


Uhm, if the question is whether your willingness to arrest and incarcerate citizens to an unproductive end makes you more libertarian than me, my reply would be both obvious and ardent. If there is some nuance I?m missing, please fill me in.

As for defining the term, I suppose I should confess I?m not really a libertarian so I?m probably the wrong guy to ask. Philosophically the rational anarchy espoused in Robert Heinlein?s The Moon is a Harsh Mistress most closely parallels my thoughts, while neo-antifederalist best describes my political views in an American context. And if you?d like me to explain at length what either of those terms means, tell me what the gig pays and I?ll tell you if I?ll take it.
 :wink:

2024
Politics & Religion / Draconina Winks
« on: May 14, 2005, 06:34:21 PM »
Tom winks:

Quote
I wonder if Buzwardo can give any statistical evidence to back up this claim? Maybe he's just blowin smoke?


Please refer to the Rich Lowry piece posted above. In it you'll find:

Quote
According to a new report by the Sentencing Project, in a trend Walters heartily supports, annual drug arrests increased by 450,000 from 1990 to 2002. Marijuana arrests accounted for 82 percent of the growth, and 79 percent of that was for marijuana possession alone. Marijuana arrests are now nearly half of all the 1.5 million annual drug arrests. Marijuana-trafficking arrests actually declined as a proportion of all drug arrests during this period, while the proportion of possession arrests increased by two-thirds.


If you want to wade through the raw data, you can do it here:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm

With that said, this thread is titled "Libertarian Themes" so it shouldn't surprise anyone when exercise of government power is questioned here. Do we really want police agencies enforcing every law on the books, and when they do, telling the folks they haul off that, since they broke the law, they had it coming?

The law is often an @$$, the punishment should fit the crime, and the government should have a compelling end before it hauls a citizen off it handcuffs. And if those notions strike you as too radical, start a "Draconian Themes" thread and post your responses there. :wink:

2025
Politics & Religion / Evolutionary Biology and Psychology
« on: May 13, 2005, 03:35:54 PM »
Like the helmeted water flea noted above, I find these sorts of comparitive studies fascinating.

Genetic divergence of man from chimp has aided human fertility but could have made us more prone to cancer, Cornell study finds

By Krishna Ramanujan

ITHACA, N.Y. -- Chimpanzees and humans share a common ancestor, and even today 99 percent of the two species' DNA is identical. But since the paths of man and chimp diverged 5 million years ago, that one percent of genetic difference appears to have changed humans in an unexpected way: It could have made people more prone to cancer.
A comparative genetic study led by Cornell University researchers suggest that some mutations in human sperm cells might allow them to avoid early death and reproduce, creating an advantage that ensures more sperm cells carry this trait. But this same positive selection could also have made it easier for human cancer cells to survive.

"If we are right about this, it may help explain the high prevalence of cancer," says Rasmus Nielsen, lead author of the paper, and a former assistant professor of the Department of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology at Cornell who is now a professor at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. The study, published in a recent issue of PLoS Biology (Vol. 3, Issue 6), a peer-reviewed, open-access journal published by the Public Library of Science (PLoS), focuses on identifying biological processes where positive selection -- adaptations that lead to new directions -- produced evolutionary changes that can be identified in the genomes of both humans and chimps.

To make these comparisons, the researchers used chimpanzee DNA sequence data generated by Celera Genomics of Rockville, Md. The chimpanzee and human versions of each gene were aligned, and on average they differ at only slightly more than 1 percent of the positions in the DNA.

The researchers' searched out the relatively few genes (13,731 sequences) that have diverged the most since sharing a common ancestor, most likely a primate that looked like a cross between a gorilla, chimp and human. While the scientists more or less expected to see that immune defense systems in each species have rapidly evolved separately to keep pace with attacking, mercurial bacteria and viruses, they were surprised to find that genes associated with the brain were practically the same.

One of the more interesting observations occurred in some genes that govern cell death in sperm cells and tumor cells alike. Both types of cells use a mechanism called apoptosis -- a pathway that includes genes that program a cell's demise and death. During the production of sperm cells, for example, apoptosis kills many of the cells before they reach maturity. But mutations in these genes could inhibit apoptosis in some sperm cells, allowing more sperm to reach maturity, reproduce again and ensure that future cells will carry the gene that defuses early self-destruction.
Unfortunately, this same machinery also allows cancer cells to live on. The researchers suspect that some mutations that allow sperm cells to increase their chances of reproduction might also diminish an organism's ability to turn off tumor cell growth and fight cancer.

"Eliminating cancer cells by apoptosis is one of the main processes used by the organism to fight cancer," says Nielsen.

According to the study, immune defense genes also have evolved quickly, creating greater genetic differences between humans and chimps.

"The main reason why immune- and defense-related genes have diverged is probably because they are involved in an evolutionary arms race with pathogens," says Nielsen. "Viruses and other pathogens evolve very quickly, and the human immune system is constantly being challenged by the emergence of new pathogenic threats." Pathogens such as the bubonic plague, AIDS and influenza put constant pressures on the human immune system to adapt by positive selection.
Surprisingly, the study found that genes associated with the brain could not explain apparent differences in brain form, function and power between humans and chimps. The researchers wonder if a few small genetic changes had big effects on how the brains of each species have developed.

"It could be relatively few switch genes that account for the difference," says Andrew Clark, a co-author on the study and a professor of molecular biology and genetics at Cornell. Carlos Bustamante, an assistant professor of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology at Cornell, was also a major contributor to this study.

Related World Wide Web sites: The following sites provide additional information on this news release. Some might not be part of the Cornell University community, and Cornell has no control over their content or availability.
PloS Biology: http://biology.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=index-html
Rasmus Nielsen's homepage: http://www.binf.ku.dk/users/rasmus/webpage/ras.html
Andrew Clark Web page: http://www.mbg.cornell.edu/MBG_Faculty_Detail.cfm?id=8

2026
Politics & Religion / Physics and Technology Site
« on: May 13, 2005, 09:54:47 AM »
Interesting and well organized site containing stories about leading edge physics and technology news. Check it out at:

http://www.physorg.com/

2027
Politics & Religion / Running the Gauntlet
« on: May 13, 2005, 06:29:26 AM »
Tom asks:

Quote
Woof, Just out of curiosity, how do you guys feel about cops who sit outside night clubs, bars and the local watering holes and nab guys for dui as they leave?


Something akin to evolution in action is my feeling. Back in my drug addled youth I dodged my share of cops, Rule 1 was don't do illegal things where they can see you. Outside the bar at closing time, moreover, is often times a dangerous place regardless. If you do get hauled off in cuffs, perhaps you should count it as a cheap lesson.

With that said, I've seen this tactic taken too far. In the 'burb where I grew up there was a bar that opened just over the county line. Annoyed I suspect about missing out on tax revenues as much as anything else the town fathers had the local yokel PD show up in force to pull over anyone leaving the bar most evenings.

Common tactics included an unmarked police car coming up quickly on the rear of a vehicle, if the driver hit his brakes he was pulled over for "improper signaling," or a cop car would pull in front of a car and hit the brakes; when the driver swerved to avoid a collision he was pulled over for "improper lane usage" and so on. After a couple years of these tactics the bar went out of business 'cause no one wanted to run the gauntlet.

IMO the cops more than crossed the line in that instance, but for the most part I've no problem when they go trolling for drunks, though the sobriety checkpoints they've been setting up of late look to me to be a violation of civil liberties.

2028
Politics & Religion / You go, girl
« on: May 11, 2005, 08:39:43 PM »
Wow, an MSM story that casts the Second Amendment in a positive light. Who'd a thunk it?

Rice: Gun Rights Important As Free Speech
By BARRY SCHWEID, AP Diplomatic Writer

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, recalling how her father took up arms to defend fellow blacks from racist whites in the segregated South, said Wednesday the constitutional right of Americans to own guns is as important as their rights to free speech and religion.

In an interview on CNN's "Larry King Live," Rice said she came to that view from personal experience. She said her father, a black minister, and his friends armed themselves to defended the black community in Birmingham, Ala., against the White Knight Riders in 1962 and 1963. She said if local authorities had had lists of registered weapons, she did not think her father and other blacks would have been able to defend themselves.

Birmingham, where Rice was born in 1954, was a focal point of racial tension. Four black girls were killed when a bomb exploded at a Birmingham church in 1963, a galvanizing moment in the fight for civil rights.

Rice said she favored background checks and controls at gun shows. However, she added, "we have to be very careful when we start abridging rights that the Founding Fathers thought very important."

Rice said the Founding Fathers understood "there might be circumstances that people like my father experienced in Birmingham, Ala., when, in fact, the police weren't going to protect you."

"I also don't think we get to pick and choose from the Constitution," she said in the interview, which was taped for airing Wednesday night. "The Second Amendment is as important as the First Amendment."

The First Amendment protects religious, press and speech freedoms as well as the rights to assemble and petition the government. The Second Amendment guarantees "a well-regulated militia" and "the right of the people to keep and bear arms." Gun-rights supporters and those who favor gun control disagree over whether the amendment guarantees individual gun ownership.

2029
Politics & Religion / Reefer Madness
« on: May 10, 2005, 10:17:15 AM »
As someone who has given folks grief for tinfoil hat conspiracy twaddle I suppose I'm risking being lumped that category. It freaks me out, however, that the US if devoting vast resources and criminalizing the behavior of a broad swath of its citizens in its pursuit of pot arrests. As far as I'm concerned stuff like this serves as the model for how various government entities can blithely conspire to deprive citizens of freedom in pursuit of a dubious end.

May 10, 2005, 8:08 a.m.
The War on Pot
Wrong drug, wrong war.
Rich Lowry


As the nation's "drug czar," John Walters is supposed to be saving us from the ravages of hard drugs like heroin and cocaine. At least that was the original sales pitch for the "war on drugs" in the 1980s. But the war has evolved into largely a fight against marijuana, which no one has ever claimed is a hard drug. Walters is nonetheless committed, Ahab-like, to arresting every marijuana smoker in the country whom law enforcement can lay its hands on.

It used to be that drug warriors denied that marijuana was much of a focus for them, because they understandably liked people to think they were cracking down on genuinely dangerous, highly addictive drugs. No more. We are waging a war on pot, a substance less addictive and harmful than tobacco and alcohol, which presumably friends of Walters enjoy all the time with no fear of being forced to make a court appearance.

According to a new report by the Sentencing Project, in a trend Walters heartily supports, annual drug arrests increased by 450,000 from 1990 to 2002. Marijuana arrests accounted for 82 percent of the growth, and 79 percent of that was for marijuana possession alone. Marijuana arrests are now nearly half of all the 1.5 million annual drug arrests. Marijuana-trafficking arrests actually declined as a proportion of all drug arrests during this period, while the proportion of possession arrests increased by two-thirds.

Has the use of other drugs declined, prompting the focus on marijuana? No. According to the Sentencing Project: "There is no indication from national drug-survey data that a dramatic decrease in the use of other drugs led to law-enforcement agencies shifting resources to marijuana. Indeed, there was a slight increase in the use of all illicit drugs by adult users between 1992 and 2001. Over that same period, emergency-room admissions for heroin continued to increase." Drug warriors simply think it's a good thing in and of itself to arrest marijuana smokers.

Their crusade bears little or no connection to law enforcement. Crime generally has been declining from 1990 to 2002, even as pot arrests have increased. Are we to believe that crime is at its lowest rates in 30 years, but the nation is beset by rampaging marijuana smokers who are kept under minimal control only by ever-increasing arrests? Every major county in the country, except Fairfax, Va., saw an increase in marijuana arrests during the past 12 years. That Washington, D.C., suburb has not been notably overrun by hemp-crazed hordes.

The fight against marijuana isn't even working on its own terms. According to the Sentencing Project, since 1992, the price of marijuana has fallen steadily, declining by 16 percent. In 1990, 84.4 percent of high-school seniors said it was easy to get marijuana. In 2002, 87.2 percent said it was easy. Daily use by high-school seniors tripled from 1990 to 2002, going from 2.2 percent to 6 percent ? the same level as in 1975.

As Allen F. St. Pierre, executive director of the pro-decriminalization group NORML, puts it, "Increased arrest rates are not associated with reduced marijuana use, reduced marijuana availability, a reduction in the number of new users, reduced treatment admissions, reduced emergency-room mentions, any reduction in marijuana potency, or any increases in the price of marijuana." Besides that, the war on marijuana is a smash success.

Marijuana is not harmless, and its use should be discouraged, but in the same way, say, smoking a pack of cigarettes a day should be discouraged. The criminal-justice system should stay out of it. Twelve states have decriminalized marijuana to varying degrees, fining instead of arresting people for possessing small amounts. They recognize that ? as the authors of a new study for the conservative American Enterprise Institute argue ? "the case for imposing criminal sanctions for possession of small amounts of marijuana is weak."

John Walters, of course, will have a ready answer for the ineffectiveness of the war on marijuana. It's the answer drug warriors always have ? even more arrests.

? Rich Lowry is author of Legacy: Paying the Price for the Clinton Years.

2030
Politics & Religion / The Kicker
« on: May 09, 2005, 03:27:54 PM »
Crafty writes:

Quote
Also, as the piece gets around to noting, India and the US are growing closer in various ways.


The piece certainly glossed over US/India relations, though I guess the kicker for me is that I think we're only one major Indo/Pakistani border skirmish away from enmity out that way.

One of my pet peeves is that the American attention span is defined by the last and next election cycle, while that of other major players, notably China and India, and to a lesser degree Russia, can span a generation or more. I note in Russia for instance major attention is being paid to the end of the "Great Patriotic War," an anniversary that can barely find a stifled yawn out this way.

I guess the bottom line is I'm more forgiving when a piece slaps America upside its myopic head. Think future entanglements are being defined in places like India, China, Russia, and indeed Venezuela, though most American eyes are haphazardly fixed on Iraq and November 2006.

2031
Politics & Religion / Semantic Slippery Slope
« on: May 09, 2005, 03:07:13 PM »
May 09, 2005, 9:21 a.m.
Recruitment Killer
Army semantics and sophistry over women in combat are dangerous.

By Elaine Donnelly

If the moms and dads of America find out what the Army leaders are planning for their sons and daughters considering military service, recruiters are going to have a much tougher job than they do now.

General Peter Schoomaker, speaking at an American Enterprise Institute symposium on April 11, raised eyebrows when he dismissed the women-in-combat controversy as not a ?gender issue.? The Army chief of staff was responding to a questioner who rightly praised the courage of female soldiers, but expressed concern about the unprecedented number of women being maimed or killed in Iraq (33, to date) and Afghanistan (5).

General Schoomaker?s rambling answer confirmed a supposedly ?unofficial? plan for women in combat, being implemented in the 3rd Infantry Division despite frequent denials that anything has changed. The blueprint appears to be a ?Women in the Army Point Paper? prepared by the office of Army Secretary Francis Harvey on January 24, which includes a subtle but significant change in the wording of Defense Department regulations.

Current directives exempt female soldiers from direct ground-combat units such as the infantry and armor, and from smaller support companies that ?collocate? (operate 100 percent of the time) with land-combat troops. The new, unauthorized wording narrows the ?collocation rule? to apply only when a combat unit is actually ?conducting an assigned direct ground combat mission? (Emphasis added).

General Schoomaker recited Defense Department regulations, but claimed (without justification) that the Army has separate rules that exempt female soldiers from collocation with land-combat battalions ?at the time that those units are undergoing those operations? (Emphasis added). By adding the words ?conducting? or ?undergoing? (a direct ground-combat mission) to the collocation rule, the Army has created a new regulation that has not been authorized by the Secretary of Defense, or reported to Congress in advance, as required by law.

Secretary Harvey?s plan presumes to alter the ?gender codes? of 24 of 225 positions ? mostly mechanics ? in order to accommodate women in a typical forward-support company (FSC). Unlike transportation units that come and go intermittently, these units are designed to operate in constant proximity with combined infantry/armor battalions.

Army officials say they don?t have to notify Congress of any rule change because women in those formerly all-male positions are ?not collocating.? For this to be true, officials would have to compromise organizational efficiency, or remove female soldiers from embedded forward support companies when their infantry/armor battalions begin ?conducting? land combat. Never mind that spare helicopters and armored vehicles for evacuation purposes would be as rare as ?beam me up Scotty? transporter machines.

The insurgent battlefield in Iraq has not reduced enormous demands on infantry, special-operations forces and Marine units that engage in deliberate offensive action against the enemy. In the fierce battle for Fallujah, great physical strength and psychological bonds essential for unit cohesion made it possible for soldiers and Marines to accomplish combat missions and survive.

The politically correct view is that training alone can prepare female soldiers for land combat alongside such men. According to General Schoomaker, ?we have a moral responsibility to prepare those women that are serving in our armed forces?by providing them with the warrior skills and tasks that are required?.? Improved training on how to evade or survive ambushes makes sense, but gender-normed ?warrior ethos? training ? an oxymoronic concept ? cannot prove feminist illusions of interchangeable men and women in or near land combat.

When the British military replaced ?gender fair? training standards ?appropriate to women?s physique? with an egalitarian ?gender free? regimen, injuries more than doubled. At the Naval Academy, a 1998 study documented knee-ligament injuries among women at rates nine times greater than men.

Women are smart and courageous, but Army would never send female football players to beat Navy on the gridiron. The same officials seem to believe that a few weeks of ?warrior? training is sufficient to transform black-bereted female ?S?oldiers into the functional equivalents of men.

Physical disparities are not the only issue. Noting that many parents teach their sons to be protectors of women, the questioner respectfully asked General Schoomaker whether such a moral upbringing can be reconciled with the Army?s current policy of sending women into hostile circumstances to kill or be killed. Admitting that he hadn?t thought about the questioner?s moral reservations, Schoomaker seemed to equate them with the attitudes of conscientious objectors, or with people who would say that ?men and women can?t even share the same tornado shelter in Oklahoma" ? whatever that means.

The response did not inspire confidence, especially when the Army is implementing an unauthorized ?stealth? plan to gender integrate combat-collocated support companies. Secretary Harvey?s plan even eliminates several land combat units from the list required to be all male.

If the Army succeeds in circumventing law and policy, consequences will be felt in seven major areas, starting with doubts about Army leadership and legal consequences with regard to Selective Service. Military complications could needlessly cost lives and social/cultural dynamics will detract from discipline, leading to readiness/deployability problems and precedent that will eventually apply to special-operations forces and eventually the Marine Corps.

There is no military justification for an incremental, ?little bit pregnant? plan for gender-integration that undermines the advantages of modularity in the Army?s new, smaller ?unit of action? combat brigades. There is no evidence of a shortage of male soldiers, but if there is a need for more men, Army officials should end counterproductive recruiting quotas for women.

Recruiting is difficult, but forcing young women and mothers in or near land-combat units would degrade respect for women, and make it tougher to enlist male recruits that the Army needs now more than ever. If Army leaders are serious about its new recruiting campaign aimed at parents, they need to stop the sophistry and semantics, and take this issue seriously.

The law requires that the Secretary of Defense provide formal advance notice to Congress of policy changes regarding female soldiers, accompanied by an analysis of proposed revisions on women?s exemption from Selective Service obligations. This is a national security matter, not a less important ?women?s issue.? Members of Congress, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, and President George W. Bush should intervene to enforce the law. The future of the volunteer force depended on principled leadership now.

? Elaine Donnelly is president of the Center for Military Readiness, an independent public-policy organization that specializes in military personnel issues. A shorter version of this appeared in the Washington Times.

http://nationalreview.com/comment/donnelly200505090921.asp

2032
Politics & Religion / Trilateral Alliance?
« on: May 05, 2005, 10:15:45 AM »
A long way from happening but worth keeping an eye on, IMO.

Trilateral Alliance
Russia, China, and India may be on a collision course with the U.S.

By Ilan Berman

Back in the fall of 1998, Russian premier Yevgenni Primakov threw down a gauntlet at the Clinton administration?s feet when, during a visit to New Delhi, he proposed the formation of a ?strategic triangle? encompassing India, China, and Russia as a counterweight to the United States.

Back then, Primakov?s grand plans did not find much purchase: Russia was in the throes of a disastrous economic meltdown, while China and a newly nuclear India both rejected the idea of such an axis outright.

Six and a half years later, much has changed. Today, worrying signs suggest that Primakov?s idea for an anti-American coalition in Asia may be finding a new lease on life.

During his visit to New Delhi last month, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao took pains to stress the similarities between Russia, China, and India, and to urge ?coordination and cooperation? between the three countries as a means of promoting international ?peace and security.? Jiabao?s comments were notable, insofar as they represent the first public endorsement by a Chinese official of a trilateral alliance between Beijing, Moscow, and New Delhi.

But is such a construct possible? Many observers remain deeply skeptical. Earlier this year, Moscow?s Nezavisimaya Gazeta ridiculed the idea. ?China, Russia and India are not forming and will not be able to form such a conglomerate,? the opposition paper insisted in a January editorial, stressing the historically-rocky ties between Beijing and New Delhi and Moscow?s wariness over China?s expanding energy ambitions. Some Chinese scholars are likewise incredulous, citing competing priorities between China and India and the long-standing premium placed by the PRC on independent foreign policy decision-making.

Indeed, for the past decade, an Asian ?triple entente? has remained more rhetoric than reality, with Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi all charting vastly different political trajectories. Now, however, a convergence of factors suggests that the historical impediments to such an alliance could be diminishing.

For one thing, Russia appears to be reverting to old habits. Over the past year and a half, through a series of electoral victories and not-so-subtle power grabs, President Vladimir Putin has succeeded in virtually monopolizing Russian foreign and security policy. More ominously, these successes have been matched by the return of an assertive, neo-imperial foreign policy ? one very much on display in the ?post-Soviet space? and, increasingly, well beyond it. As a result, Russia today is drifting away from cooperation with the United States, and toward a distinctly counterproductive stance on an array of issues of serious concern to the Bush administration ? from arms sales to Syria to continued nuclear assistance for Iran?s ayatollahs. And a Russian-Chinese-Indian triangle is increasingly part of these new priorities; during his December 2004 visit to India, Putin explicitly echoed Primakov?s vision of an anti-American axis in Asia when he declared that strategic cooperation between the three countries ?would make a great contribution to global security.?

An evolution is also increasingly visible in Sino-Indian ties. While rivalry over commercial and energy contracts with the Central Asian republics, as well as Beijing?s vibrant strategic partnership with Pakistan, remains the order of the day, recent weeks have seen competition begin to give way to cooperation. In early April, the two countries convened a landmark summit in New Delhi, at which they settled long-running border demarcation issues, agreed to significantly boost bilateral trade, and codified an array of cooperation agreements on civil aviation, finance, education, and technology exchanges ? laying the groundwork for what officials in both countries are already terming a ?strategic and cooperative partnership.?

To be sure, practical constraints are still present, chief among them India?s burgeoning partnership with the United States. Since September of 2004, as part of the new strategic framework between the Bush administration and the Indian government (dubbed ?Next Steps in Strategic Partnership?), Washington and New Delhi have drifted toward expanded cooperation on an array of military and security issues. This convergence was on display during secretary of state Condoleezza Rice?s recent tour of Asia ? a visit that included American offers of new defense and security incentives to India, including advanced fighter aircraft and U.S.-made theater missile defenses.

Nevertheless, for the first time, both Moscow and Beijing have formally articulated their support for an architecture expressly designed to diminish American influence in Asia. Policymakers in Washington would do well take notice. And, given the growing opposition to American policies now evident in Russia, as well as China?s increasingly aggressive, expansionist foreign-policy agenda, they would do even better to begin planning how to prevent such a construct from becoming a reality.

? Ilan Berman is vice president for policy at the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.

http://nationalreview.com/comment/berman200505050754.asp

2033
Politics & Religion / ED Transplant
« on: May 04, 2005, 10:13:30 AM »
Over on the Eskrima Digest (ED) a discussion arose about the impact of concealed carry on crime, among other related tangents. The EDs moderator, Ray Terry, prefers to keep things focused on Eskrima, so I thought I?d move the discussion to Crafty?s forum. What follows is my response to a post by PD, an escrimador in the UK.

PD avers:

Quote
y the reference to an increase in the attacks on tourists, its obvious that the crime is simply being displaced. Now while it may not register on people being shot, where is the crime being displaced to as i dare say the demand is still there to satisfy drug habits and the other motivations for terrorising people into handing over their property.


There is a choice here that is being utterly overlooked: rather than risk encountering a piece of lead moving at 1000 feet per second plus, criminals may choose instead not to commit crime. Can?t speak for the UK where, as I understand it, various nanny state policies have created a rather permanent rate of high unemployment, but here in the US it?s not too hard to find a job flipping burgers, an avocation folks with a criminal penchant may view with increased favor if one of the alternatives is intimate acquaintance with 230 grain hollow point moving at high speed.

Indeed, my guess is that most crimes are ones of opportunity; when the opportunity fails to present itself, so does the crime. There?s a saying that locked doors keep honest people out, which I take to mean that a prudent measure can provide people with reason to make the proper choice. I think concealed carry takes this notion to the next level; those predisposed to criminal behavior never really know if they are looking at an opportunity or a locked, dangerous, vault. The bottom line is the notion that a criminal who can?t commit the crime he originally intended automatically moves on to another crime is a false dichotomy in my estimation. Some crime may be displaced, but overall crime rates drop in US concealed carry states.

Quote
For me (dare i even suggest others) to be impressed with the argument that arming people works as well as playing devils advocate, until the people perpetuating this claim can prove where the displacement is showing up only leaves a shallow argument, not worthy of the intellect clearly abundant here on this list.


Clearly abundant intellects aside, there is plenty of evidence out there for those who care to look, with most sources cited in various ED and Dogbrothers threads if you are indeed interested in finding them. I?m not much inclined to recapitulate what can easily be found if you are truly interested in investigating the question, though I will cite a survey of the relevant literature that can point you the right direction, John Lott?s The Bias against Guns. One of the nice things about Lott?s work is that he cites the opposition in a well-annotated manner as he demonstrates the specious nature of their arguments. All sides of the question, in short, are well sourced and represented in his book.

An aside here: one of the dirty little secrets of this argument and many others is that both government and media have made it difficult to wage an informed debate. I know someone, for instance, whose job more or less is to write term papers for the US Congress. When the congress critter that requested a report doesn?t like the conclusion supported by the data, the report is often quashed or otherwise messed with. On many occasions my acquaintance has said cavalierly something along the line of ?the requester didn?t like our findings so we?re recasting the question,? which to my ear sounds like they?re cooking the data, though the practice is so common in Washington that most don?t bat an eye at it.

Similar practices are common in the media: most second amendment scholarship confirming the right goes unreported, though when a researcher claiming to have found that 18th century probate records demonstrated few guns were owned in the colonial US, various MSM organs trumpeted the finding as it suggested seminal colonial second amendment practices are a myth. When this researcher was shown to have faked the data, however, few members of the MSM found call to pay that turn of events commensurate attention. Similarly, when a Center for Disease Control report found numerous ?gun control? measures had no impact on crime, few members of the MSM felt compelled to relay the information at length, preferring instead to focus on an anecdotal, and to my mind demonstrably spurious, claim regarding concealed carry.

Be all that as it may, since I maintain that any expectation of crime ?displacement? amounts to a false dichotomy and that there is plenty of peer reviewed material out there for people inclined to find it, I suppose the ball is in your court. What beyond outlining the arguments and pointing you toward the source material is required to establish the available depths? Are you indeed seeking to be impressed or instead setting an expectation for proof that can?t be met without some work on your end?

Quote
n the UK, after years of finding your car stereo missing amongst the broken window glass, the car manufacturers made great improvements in the design and security of the said item. Since this is no longer an easy way for someone to generate the quick funds for bag of scag, we have seen a dramatic rise - at least in my city - of handbags being snatched from women and youngsters held up for mobile phones, mp3 players and bikes.


Train, license, and arm law abiding citizens and I?d be quite willing to bet, and give long odds, that women, kids, phones, mp3 players, bikes, et al could walk the streets unscathed. Don?t see that happening, alas, in the UK where every policy failure seems to result in calls for more policies doomed to failure, witness efforts to ban knives in Scotland.

Quote
[N]ow to me it would seem that while treating the symptoms, we should also deal with the cause. For the drug trade, in the war on terror for example we have seen the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan restored and the poppy fields blossom. A fair question would be to ask if the people who are profiting off selling the military armour might be the same people who are also profiting from the increase in sales of civilian weaponry. Perhaps to those people, the war on drugs doesn't make good business sense?


Hmm, never had a greedy-corporate-combines-conspiring-with-an-evil-government exchange do anything but devolve into further non-sequitur and gibberish so I?m not much inclined to engage here. Will say that the few times I have tried to sort through this kind of amorphous mess it became clear that not only is everything the US doing wrong, but also everything it isn?t doing is wrong, too. Bottom line is this stuff is good for working up a self-righteous froth, but of limited utility otherwise, IMO.

With that said, I do have some strong opinions about aspects of what?s mentioned above. I think US drug policy is a counterproductive abomination, for instance, that does little more than create an immense profit motive while assuring poor quality control. Alas, think much of the relevant information isn?t disseminated in a useful manner thus assuring jingoistic gibberish instead of informed policy choices.

Quote
Where i live, the crime is a result of poverty or drugs. I agree with empowering people to be able to defend themselves but i also think we need to deal with the root of the issue otherwise we bring up our children in a far less secure society.


And what causes poverty and drug problems? My political bent is pretty Libertarian; I?d argue an intrusive and reactionary government is a root cause. Governments rarely create wealth, but they?re great at siphoning it off; poverty is often a result. The drug policies of most Western democracies exacerbate the associated pathologies instead of addressing them. Any ?solution? that requires more government meddling it tantamount to ordering additional ice for the Titanic, IMO. I?m all for attacking root causes, let?s just make sure it?s the right root and not some tinfoil hat circumlocution.

2034
Politics & Religion / No Prisoners!
« on: April 29, 2005, 10:15:53 AM »
VDH takes no prisoners. . . .

April 29, 2005, 8:03 a.m.
On Being Disliked
The new not-so-unwelcome anti-Americanism.
Victor Davis Hanson


Last year the hysteria about the hostility toward the United States reached a fevered pitch. Everyone from Jimmy Carter to our Hollywood elite lamented that America had lost its old popularity. It was a constant promise of the Kerry campaign to restore our good name and "to work with our allies." The more sensitive were going to undo the supposed damage of the last four years. Whole books have been devoted to this peculiar new anti-Americanism, but few have asked whether or not such suspicion of the United States is, in fact, a barometer of what we are doing right ? and while not necessarily welcome, at least proof that we are on the correct track.

The Egyptian autocracy may have received $57 billion in aggregate American aid over the last three decades. But that largess still does not prevent the Mubarak dynasty from damning indigenous democratic reformers by dubbing them American stooges. In differing ways, the Saudi royal family exhibits about the same level of antagonism toward the U.S. as do the Islamic fascists of al Qaeda ? both deeply terrified by what is going on in Iraq. Mostly this animus arises because we are distancing ourselves from corrupt grandees, even as we have become despised as incendiary democratizers by the Islamists. Is that risky and dangerous? Yes. Bad? Hardly

At the U.N. it is said that a ruling hierarchy mistrusts the United States and that a culture of anti-Americanism has become endemic within the organization. No wonder ? the Americans alone push for more facts about the Oil-for-Food scandal, question Kofi Annan's breaches of ethics, and want investigations about U.N. crimes in Africa. If we are mistrusted for caring about those thousands who are inhumanely treated by a supposedly humane organization, then why in the world should we wish to be liked by such a group?

EU bureaucrats and French politicians routinely caricature Americans, whipping up public opinion against the United States, even as they fly here to profess eagerness to maintain the old NATO transatlantic ties. Is it to our discredit that what Europe has now devolved into does not like the United States?

Mexico, we are told, is furious at the United States. Mexico City newspapers routinely trash Americans. Vicente Fox usually sounds more like a belligerent than the occasional visitor at the presidential ranch. That is not so bad either.

In short, who exactly does not like the United States and why? First, almost all the 20 or so illiberal Arab governments that used to count on American realpolitik's giving them a pass on accounting for their crimes. They fear not the realist Europeans, nor the resource-mad Chinese, nor the old brutal Russians, but the Americans, who alone are prodding them to open their economies and democratize their corrupt political cultures. We must learn to expect, not lament, their hostility, and begin to worry that things would be indeed wrong if such unelected dictators praised the United States.

The United Nations has sadly become a creepy organization. Its General Assembly is full of cutthroat regimes. The Human Rights Commission has had members like Vietnam and Sudan, regimes that at recess must fight over bragging rights to which of the two killed more of their own people. The U.N. has a singular propensity to find flawed men to be secretary-general ? a Kurt Waldheim, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, or Kofi Annan. Blue-helmeted peace-keepers, we learn, are as likely to commit as prevent crimes; and the only thing constant about such troops is that they will never go first into harm's way in Serbia, Kosovo, the Congo, or Dafur to stop genocide. Even worse, the U.N. has proved to be a terrible bully, an unforgivable sin for a self-proclaimed protector of the weak and innocent ? loud false charges against Israel for its presence in the West Bank, not a peep about China in Tibet; tough talk about Palestinian rights, far less about offending Arabs over Darfur. So U.N. anti-Americanism is a glowing radiation badge, proof of exposure to toxicity.

The EU is well past being merely silly, as its vast complex of bureaucrats tries to control what 400 million speak, eat, and think. Its biggest concerns are three: figuring out how its nations are to keep paying billions of euros to retirees, unemployed, and assorted other entitlement recipients; how to continue to ankle-bite the United States without antagonizing it to the degree that these utopians might have to pay for their own security; and how not to depopulate itself out of existence. Europeans sold Saddam terrible arms for oil well after the first Gulf War. Democratic Israel or Taiwan means nothing to them; indeed, democracy is increasingly becoming the barometer by which to judge European hostility. Cuba, China, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah ? not all that bad; the United States, Taiwan, and Israel, not all that good. Personally, I'd rather live in a country that goes into an anguished national debate over pulling the plug on a lone woman than one that blissfully vacations on the beach oblivious to 15,000 elderly cooked to well done back in Paris.

Mexico, enjoying one of the richest landscapes in the world, can't feed its own people, so it exports its poorest to the United States. Its own borders with Central America are as brutal to cross as our own are porous. Illegal aliens send back almost $50 billion, which has the effect of propping up corrupt institutions that as a result will never change. Given its treatment of its own people, if the Mexican government praised the United States we should indeed be concerned.

Who then are America's friends? Perhaps one billion Indians, who appreciated that at a time of recession we kept our economy open, and exported jobs and expertise there that helped evolve its economy.

Millions of Japanese trust America as well. Unlike the Chinese, who on script vandalized Japanese interests abroad in anguish over right-wing Japanese textbooks, Americans ? who at great cost once freed China ? without such violence urge the Japanese to deal honestly with the past. After all, the Tokyo government that started the war is gone and replaced by a democracy; in contrast, the Communist dictatorship that killed 50 million of its own and many of its neighbors is still in place in China. At a time when no one in Europe seems to care that Japan is squeezed between a nuclear North Korea and a nuclear China, the United States alone proves a reliable friend. The French, on spec, conduct maneuvers with the ascendant Communist Chinese navy.

Eastern Europeans do not find the larger families, religiosity, or commitment to individualism and freedom in America disturbing. Apparently, millions in South America don't either ? if their eagerness to emigrate here is any indication.

It is the wage of the superpower to be envied. Others weaker vie for its influence and attention ? often when successful embarrassed by the necessary obsequiousness, when ignored equally shamed at the resulting public impotence. The Cold War is gone and former friends and neutrals no longer constrain their anti-American rhetoric in fear of a cutthroat and nuclear Soviet Union. Americans are caricatured as cocky and insular ? as their popular culture sweeps the globe.

All that being said, the disdain that European utopians, Arab dictatorships, the United Nations, and Mexico exhibit toward the United States is not ? as the Kerry campaign alleged in the last election ? cause for tears, but often reason to be proud, since much of the invective arises from the growing American insistence on principles abroad.

America should not gratuitously welcome such dislike; but we should not apologize for it either. Sometimes the caliber of a nation is found not in why it is liked, but rather in why it is not. By January 1, 1941, I suppose a majority on the planet ? the Soviet Union, all of Eastern Europe, France, Italy, Spain, and even many elsewhere in occupied Europe, most of Latin America, Japan and its Asian empire, the entire Arab world, many in India ? would have professed a marked preference for Hitler's Germany over Churchill's England.

Think about it. When Europe orders all American troops out; when Japan claims our textbooks whitewash the Japanese forced internment or Hiroshima; when China cites unfair trade with the United States; when South Korea says get the hell off our DMZ; when India complains that we are dumping outsourced jobs on them; when Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinians refuse cash aid; when Canada complains that we are not carrying our weight in collective North American defense; when the United Nations moves to Damascus; when the Arab Street seethes that we are pushing theocrats and autocrats down its throat; when Mexico builds a fence to keep us out; when Latin America proclaims a boycott of the culturally imperialistic Major Leagues; and when the world ignores American books, films, and popular culture, then perhaps we should be worried. But something tells me none of that is going to happen in this lifetime.

? Victor Davis Hanson is a military historian and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His website is victorhanson.com.

2035
Politics & Religion / We the Well Armed Pilots
« on: April 28, 2005, 05:21:21 PM »
A subtle point made in this piece has to do with the folly of making concealed carry permitees (CCP) repeatedly unholster and reholster their weapon. Many accidental discharges (AD) are caused by un- and re-holstering, but as a feel good measure CCPs often have to remove their firearms, potentially resulting in ADs far more dangerous than keeping the firearm holstered in the first place.

Armed pilots
Posted by David Hardy ? 28 April 2005 12:28 PM
Times magazine has an interesting article on armed airline pilots, noting that they are now making more flights than are air marshals!

In his state of the union address, President Bush singled out federal air marshals?undercover armed agents who fly on U.S. airlines?for helping make "our homeland safer." But he neglected to mention a flying security force that has quietly grown even larger than the marshals: the nation's pilots. Two years ago, the Federal Flight Deck Officer program began training pilots who wanted to carry guns on flights to protect the cockpit.
Aviation sources tell Time that more than 4,000 pilots are authorized to carry guns, and each day they fly armed on more flights than do air marshals. The gun-toting pilots, who fly unidentified, now constitute the fourth-largest federal law-enforcement group in the U.S. Pilots in the program, as well as the Transportation Security Administration (tsa), which runs it, claim it has been a big success.

Rather humorous, considering the massive TSA resistance to the idea when it first came up. Here's a recent (yesterday's Congressional Quarterly) story on how it's still resisting....

Guns in Cockpits Program Still Half Cocked, Some Say

By Caitlin Harrington
CQ Homeland Security Daily
April 27. 2005

Two years after the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) launched a program to train pilots to carry guns in the cockpit, critics say lingering problems with the Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO) program still discourage pilots from participating.

Since the program's inception in 2003, pilots groups have expressed frustration with TSA policies on gun storage and identification. The policies, they say, put the safety of deputized pilots at risk and run contrary to the intent of Congress, which wanted as many pilots as possible to participate.

"They've created a program that is so unfriendly that tens of thousands of pilots have changed their mind about volunteering," said David Mackett, president of the Airline Pilots Security Alliance (APSA), a group formed after the Sept. 11 attacks to lobby for the arming of pilots.

The Department of Homeland Security's inspector general is investigating the program.

APSA estimates that only about 4,000 pilots have been trained and deputized - a fraction of the approximately 95,000 commercial pilots in the country. APSA estimates about 50,000 pilots who were initially interested in the program changed their minds after learning about certain TSA policies.

TSA defends the program, which has been widely praised by both Democrats and Republicans as a cost-effective deterrent to hijackings. The agency continues to deputize more pilots every week, said TSA spokeswoman Amy Von Walter.

But critics say participation would be greater if TSA changed some of its policies.

One of the most controversial requires pilots to store their guns in boxes whenever they are not in the cockpit. Both APSA and the Air Line Pilots Association, the nation's largest pilots union, say it is far safer to carry the gun in a holster at all times than to frequently transfer it to and from a box.

As it stands, a pilot might have to handle a loaded gun up to 10 times a day, APSA says.

Pilots have also raised concerns about the plastic cards that identify them as federal flight deck officers. They say they need to be able to hold up a shiny badge to prove their credibility if an incident occurs on an airplane. They also say they sometimes run into problems carrying guns at the security checkpoints because they do not have a badge.

TSA chief David M. Stone told The Washington Post earlier this month that "one or two" pilots authorized to carry guns have been put on the TSA's selectee list in the past year. Selectees are singled out for additional screening at checkpoints.

DeFazio Goes Forward

Rep. Peter A. DeFazio, D-Ore., was expected to offer a package of aviation security amendments to the first homeland security authorization bill on Thursday evening, including a provision designed to fix some of the problems with the FFDO program.

"We need to enhance their ability to [protect passengers] by removing any obstacle that discourages otherwise willing pilots from being trained and armed," he said.

"The FFDO program has been successful, but I believe it would see more participation if improvements were made," DeFazio said.

His bill would require DHS to issue badges to deputized pilots; set up a program to allow pilots to carry guns in holsters rather than in a lockbox; and make it  easier for pilots to get the training required to become deputized.

Pilots groups have also voiced concern that federal flight deck officers are not allowed to carry guns on international flights, and say that there need to be more training facilities in the event more pilots decide to join. Today, all federal  flight deck officers are trained in Artesia, N.M.

DHS' inspector general is investigating the training procedures and efficacy of the program, and is expected to release a report in June.

"TSA dropped the ball in a big way, and that's basically why we have the shell of the program that we should have," Mackett said.

2036
Politics & Religion / Reading Minds
« on: April 28, 2005, 04:02:31 PM »
Scientists Say Everyone Can Read Minds
By Ker Than
Special to LiveScience
posted: 27 April 2005
07:01 am ET
   
Empathy allows us to feel the emotions of others, to identify and understand their feelings and motives and see things from their perspective. How we generate empathy remains a subject of intense debate in cognitive science.

Some scientists now believe they may have finally discovered its root. We're all essentially mind readers, they say.

The idea has been slow to gain acceptance, but evidence is mounting.

Mirror neurons

In 1996, three neuroscientists were probing the brain of a macaque monkey when they stumbled across a curious cluster of cells in the premotor cortex, an area of the brain responsible for planning movements. The cluster of cells fired not only when the monkey performed an action, but likewise when the monkey saw the same action performed by someone else. The cells responded the same way whether the monkey reached out to grasp a peanut, or merely watched in envy as another monkey or a human did.

Because the cells reflected the actions that the monkey observed in others, the neuroscientists named them "mirror neurons."

Later experiments confirmed the existence of mirror neurons in humans and revealed another surprise. In addition to mirroring actions, the cells reflected sensations and emotions.

"Mirror neurons suggest that we pretend to be in another person's mental shoes," says Marco Iacoboni, a neuroscientist at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Medicine. "In fact, with mirror neurons we do not have to pretend, we practically are in another person's mind."

Since their discovery, mirror neurons have been implicated in a broad range of phenomena, including certain mental disorders. Mirror neurons may help cognitive scientists explain how children develop a theory of mind (ToM), which is a child's understanding that others have minds similar to their own. Doing so may help shed light on autism, in which this type of understanding is often missing.

Theory theory

Over the years, cognitive scientists have come up with a number of theories to explain how ToM develops. The "theory theory" and "simulation theory" are currently two of the most popular.

Theory theory describes children as budding social scientists. The idea is that children collect evidence -- in the form of gestures and expressions -- and use their everyday understanding of people to develop theories that explain and predict the mental state of people they come in contact with.

Vittorio Gallese, a neuroscientist at the University of Parma in Italy and one of original discovers of mirror neurons, has another name for this theory: he calls it the "Vulcan Approach," in honor of the Star Trek protagonist Spock, who belonged to an alien race called the Vulcans who suppressed their emotions in favor of logic. Spock was often unable to understand the emotions that underlie human behavior.

Gallese himself prefers simulation theory over this Vulcan approach.

Natural mind readers

Simulation theory states that we are natural mind readers. We place ourselves in another person?s "mental shoes," and use our own mind as a model for theirs.

Gallese contends that when we interact with someone, we do more than just observe the other person?s behavior. He believes we create internal representations of their actions, sensations and emotions within ourselves, as if we are the ones that are moving, sensing and feeling.

Many scientists believe that mirror neurons embody the predictions of simulation theory. "We share with others not only the way they normally act or subjectively experience emotions and sensations, but also the neural circuits enabling those same actions, emotions and sensations: the mirror neuron systems," Gallese told LiveScience.

Gallese points out, however, that the two theories are not mutually exclusive. If the mirror neuron system is defective or damaged, and our ability to empathize is lost, the observe-and-guess method of theory theory may be the only option left. Some scientists suspect this is what happens in autistic people, whose mental disorder prevents them from understanding the intentions and motives of others.

Tests underway

The idea is that the mirror neuron systems of autistic individuals are somehow impaired or deficient, and that the resulting "mind-blindness" prevents them from simulating the experiences of others. For autistic individuals, experience is more observed than lived, and the emotional undercurrents that govern so much of our human behavior are inaccessible. They guess the mental states of others through explicit theorizing, but the end result is a list -- mechanical and impersonal -- of actions, gestures and expressions void of motive, intent, or emotion.

Several labs are now testing the hypothesis that autistic individuals have a mirror neuron deficit and cannot simulate the mental states of others.

One recent experiment by Hugo Theoret and colleagues at the University of Montreal showed that mirror neurons normally active during the observation of hand movements in non-autistic individuals are silent in those who have autism.

"You either simulate with mirror neurons, or the mental states of others are completely precluded to you," said Iacoboni.

http://www.livescience.com/humanbiology/050427_mind_readers.html

2037
Politics & Religion / CIA Tradecraft critique
« on: April 26, 2005, 03:04:55 PM »
Interesting interview from the NewsHour where problems with CIA tradecraft are examined.

MARGARET WARNER: In the early days of the Cold War, the CIA excelled at the cloak-and-dagger side of spycraft, human intelligence collection on the ground. It was the agency's strength, and the stuff of film legend.
ACTOR: My department authorized me to engage you to do some work for us.

ACTRESS: Why should I?

ACTOR: Patriotism.

MARGARET WARNER: But today it's clear that bad human collection was a major culprit in the two big recent U.S. intelligence disasters: 9/11 and Iraq's nonexistent weapons stockpiles. The commission investigating the Iraq WMD blunder was scathing.

JUDGE LAURENCE SILBERMAN: So the bottom line answer is, they had very little collection.

FORMER SEN. CHARLES ROBB: They clearly had an opportunity to do a good job with respect to tradecraft, and didn't

MARGARET WARNER: So fixing human spycraft is one of the toughest challenges facing John Negroponte, the new director of national intelligence.

JOHN NEGROPONTE: Our intelligence effort has to generate better results. That is my mandate, plain and simple.

MARGARET WARNER: But what exactly is the problem? Several former spies have shed their cloaks, though not their daggers, to address that in books about their CIA years. They describe an agency that simply hasn't adapted the art of human spying to today's world.

We met two of them in a Washington neighborhood whose parks were a favorite locale for Cold War espionage, to talk about what Negroponte faces. Lindsay Moran wrote "Blowing My Cover: My Life as a CIA Spy" after just five years with the agency.

LINDSAY MORAN: The agency has relied on really dated methods of espionage and training for way too long.

MARGARET WARNER: Melissa Boyle Mahle, who penned "Denial and Deception" after a 14-year CIA career, reached much the same conclusion.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: They do not want to a change to their methods. They don't want to change their power structure, because it's all very well-ingrained for the last 50 years.

MARGARET WARNER: Both women joined the CIA with impressive credentials and dreams of serving their country. Both endured the CIA's clandestine operative training camp in Virginia, known as "The Farm."

The Berkeley-educated, Arabic-speaking Mahle then went under diplomatic cover to the Middle East, ultimately rising to the rank of CIA chief in Jerusalem. She was forced out in 2002 over an unreported contact with a Palestinian militant.

The Harvard-educated Moran took her Serbo-Croatian language skills to the Balkans in the tense years after the Kosovo War. But after a brief stint back at Langley headquarters, she quit the agency in frustration in 2003.

MARGARET WARNER: What's wrong with spycraft at the agency, the human intelligence side?

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: The real problem is that the agency hasn't updated its methods since the end of the Cold War, and we're stuck doing things old-fashioned ways. And we're not thinking outside of a box and trying to say, you know, "We have a new target set; how are we going to go after it in a very aggressive way, in a different kind of way so they don't see us coming?"

MARGARET WARNER: Give me an example of doing something the old way, something from your own experience.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: Sending our officers out to work the diplomatic circuit and to think that on this diplomatic circuit overseas we're going to meet terrorists, or we're going to meet narco-traffickers, or we're going to meet proliferators. We're just not going to find them there. We don't look like the right people. We're not speaking the right languages, and we're not going to really the ends of the earth where we need to be.

MARGARET WARNER: The failures begin, they said, with the recruiting process for clandestine officers.

LINDSAY MORAN: There was nobody in my training class who spoke any of the languages that the CIA needs to go after terrorist groups, such as Arabic, Pashtu or Urdu. Also, the agency has completely ignored a whole pool of potential employees of second-generation Americans who a lot of times are just as patriotic-- if not more so-- than people whose families came over on the "Mayflower."

And because there's this inherent distrust of foreigners within the agency, they're unwilling to hire these kinds of people, exactly the kinds of people that we need in order to gather effective intelligence in the Middle East.

MARGARET WARNER: Mahle spent a year recruiting other officers, and was appalled at how often the agency preferred hiring white Midwesterners who'd had no contacts with any foreigners ever.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: I'd be very excited if I had people that I was going to be talking to that were native Arabic speakers, particularly native Arabic speakers, because we were looking for them, or Pashtu speakers, or even Chinese Americans or Korean Americans.

And, you know, I'd run them through all the loops, hoops, and test them to see if they could do the job, if they had, you know, the intuitive capabilities. And I would say, "Okay, this guy or this gal passes muster." And then you'd send them through security or psychological testing, and they would get washed out.

MARGARET WARNER: And why?

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: We were penetrated by a mole, and, therefore, we're so frightened of anybody that might have loyalties elsewhere, we overcompensate. And that's to the loss of the capabilities of the agency.

MARGARET WARNER: She was shocked when she attended the graduation of the first post-9/11 class of recruits.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: It was a sea of white faces. And you know why? Because they were easily cleared. We wanted to have a big first class after 9/11 to make the point. And I think they made the wrong point.

MARGARET WARNER: Next came training, and a lot of it-- not just the paramilitary exercises, but the recruitment role playing-- seemed dated, too.

LINDSAY MORAN: Well, I think that all of us in my training class were rather unimpressed, because, as I said, we knew that terrorism was the primary threat. This notion that particularly young female case officers, that we would be able to target men in the Middle East and take them out to lunch or dinner, I think is realistic if you're going after one kind of target. But to really go after terrorist groups, I don't think that's a realistic way of infiltrating or even targeting a terrorist group.

MARGARET WARNER: Once overseas, their main job wasn't to spy themselves, but to recruit foreigners to betray secret information. Even after 9/11, Moran found there were red lines she couldn't cross.

LINDSAY MORAN: I started to target someone who, although he wasn't a terrorist himself, had ties to terrorist networks or Islamist extremist groups, and was writing back to headquarters asking for their approval to go ahead and develop this person and potentially recruit him as a foreign agent.

And I received a missive from headquarters saying, "We found out that this person has ties to terrorist groups. Cease and desist all contact with him." And I was astounded, and I think my boss in the field was equally as astounded, but we both felt sort of powerless to do anything about it.

Another problem that I saw there was a culture that I think rewards quantity over quality. For instance, we were all made to believe that our career progression depended solely on the number of recruitments that we could accrue.

MARGARET WARNER: No matter how good or bad the quality of his information is?

LINDSAY MORAN: Yes. I argued for the termination of a case that I was running in the Balkans, where this person was really peddling pretty useless information and receiving a very substantial salary from the CIA. And this was post-Sept. 11, so the information was particularly irrelevant.

And I kept arguing to terminate this case; that this person should not be on the CIA payroll and was told again and again by headquarters, "No, you should be keep running the case." And ultimately the reasoning that headquarters gave me, or that the management at headquarters gave me, was "This looks good for your career."

And that's when I felt just completely disillusioned with the agency. It occurred to me that most American taxpayers probably don't care what's good for my career progression. They want quality intelligence.

MARGARET WARNER: So she wasn't surprised when the WMD Commission found that the CIA had relied on bogus weapons information fed by dishonest Iraqi informants.

LINDSAY MORAN: I think the example of "curve ball," upon whom it seems we based our entire decision to go to war in this, ended up being a really unreliable source. That's a perfect example of how the quality of recruitments and the quality of information is not properly assessed.

MARGARET WARNER: Mahle had equally disheartening run-ins with Langley. She was sent to Qatar in 1995 to determine if al-Qaida figure Khalid Sheik Mohammad was, as reported, hiding there.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: We didn't know very much about him, but we did know that he had been somehow involved in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, and also in the Philippines airplane plot. Anyway, so I go out. I determined that, yes, indeed, this is the guy.

MARGARET WARNER: She urged Langley to snatch him rather than formally request extradition because she didn't trust the Qatari authorities. But Washington went the official extradition route, and, as she had predicted, Khalid Sheik Mohammad disappeared.
So how did you feel about that?

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: I was upset beyond, because I realized this guy was very dangerous, and I realized we had let a terrorist go free, and it didn't have to turn out that way. You've got to ask yourself, if he had been picked up in 1995, the guy who had the idea of hijacking lots of airplanes and the guy who had the idea of running, of blowing up tall towers in New York City, would 9/11 have happened?

MARGARET WARNER: So, Melissa, what is your analysis of what the problem is at headquarters?

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: We have managers whose job is to manage out risk. We have other managers whose job is to check to make sure those other managers have managed out risk. So by the time you, as a field operative, you set forward your great idea, you're going to have it rejected, because ultimately, from their perspective, there's going to be a flap.

MARGARET WARNER: One reviewer described you, Lindsay, as saying, "she expected to find James Bond, and she found James Bureaucrat."

LINDSAY MORAN: We used to joke in our training class that there was this policy at the agency called reverse Darwinism, whereby the most mediocre people would rise to the top; that it wasn't survival of the fittest; the best would end up leaving. And I found that to be true. From my training class, I think the best case officers and potential case officers left within the same span of time that I did, in five years.

MARGARET WARNER: That's why they don't believe adding more spies into the same old system-- by 50 percent as President Bush has ordered-- will solve the problem. What would be your piece of advice to John Negroponte about human intelligence?

LINDSAY MORAN: Well, I think that the agency could certainly start by developing a cadre of spies that is not under official cover. It's riskier, but a lot of people are drawn to this profession because they're drawn to risk.

MARGARET WARNER: Above all, they both endorsed the same bold recommendation: Set up a new elite unit within the existing CIA

LINDSAY MORAN: There's been, you know, a lot of talk: Don't throw the baby out with the bath water, in terms of the CIA; I tend to think that maybe you do have to start over and start a whole new clandestine service.

MELISSA BOYLE MAHLE: If you stand up to a new office or a new director within the CIA And you can say, "Okay, we're going to now do something completely different, and we're going to start small, but we know that it's the future, and you build that new incentive structure where you get rewarded for risk-taking, where you get rewarded for actually, really getting down deep into a society and learning how it works."

And then sooner or later everybody else in the agency is looking around and saying, "Hey, those are the people that are doing the best ops, those are the people that are getting promoted," and then they're going to say, "I want to be a part of that action." And that's how you're going to change the organization.

MARGARET WARNER: It's a tall order for the new DNI.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/fedagencies/jan-june05/spy_4-25.html

2038
Politics & Religion / Happy Slapping Fad
« on: April 26, 2005, 01:07:59 PM »
It's kind of hard to imagine this UK "fad" catching on in a concealed carry state. When criminals know 100 percent of the potential victim pool is disarmed this kind of petty thuggery becomes fairly risk free.


Concern over rise of 'happy slapping' craze

Fad of filming violent attacks on mobile phones spreads

Mark Honigsbaum
Tuesday April 26, 2005
The Guardian

In one video clip, labelled B*tch Slap, a youth approaches a woman at a bus stop and punches her in the face. In another, Knockout Punch, a group of boys wearing uniforms are shown leading another boy across an unidentified school playground before flooring him with a single blow to the head.

In a third, Bank Job, a teenager is seen assaulting a hole-in-the-wall customer while another youth grabs the money he has just withdrawn from the cash machine.

Welcome to the disturbing world of the "happy slappers" - a youth craze in which groups of teenagers armed with camera phones slap or mug unsuspecting children or passersby while capturing the attacks on 3g technology.

According to police and anti-bullying organisations, the fad, which began as a craze on the UK garage music scene before catching on in school playgrounds across the capital last autumn, is now a nationwide phenomenon.

And as the craze has spread from London to the home counties to the north of England, so the attacks have become more menacing, with increasing numbers of violent assaults and adult victims.

In London, British Transport police have investigated 200 happy slapping incidents in the past six months, with eight people charged with attacks at south London stations and bus stops in January alone.

The Metropolitan police have no overall figures but recorded a number of attacks in London boroughs earlier this year.

Following a spate of random attacks last December on pupils at Godolphin and Latymer girls' school in Hammersmith, west London, police posted extra officers in the area as a deterrent.

But as police have become more vigilant, so the gangs have become more sophisticated, seeking victims in parks or public areas where their crimes are unlikely to be spotted by the authorities or captured on CCTV.

Liz Carnell, the director of Bullying Online, a Yorkshire-based charity set up to combat bullying in schools, said that since the start of the year she has heard of increasing attacks both on children and on adults. But she fears many incidents are not reported.

"In most cases the worst that happens is a minor scratch or a bruised ego," she said.

"What the people behind these attacks have to understand is that technically they are committing an assault. And if they then upload the images on to the internet or a phone system they could be prosecuted for harassment."

What makes the attacks all the more bewildering is that many victims do not realise they have been happy slapped until after the event.

Earlier this month James Silver, 34, a freelance journalist, was attacked while jogging on the South Bank in London. While one youth blocked his path, another hit him with a rolled-up magazine.

When he spun around another teenager - who had been hiding behind nearby scaffolding - leapt out and hit him hard in the head. When he staggered to his feet he noticed the rest of the gang were jeering and pointing their mobile phones at him.

Silver admits that while the attack left his "ego smarting" he did not think it worth reporting. "At the end of the day I was unharmed but it was pretty shocking at the time," he said. "The worry is that while the bulk of the attacks are trivial, some of these youths could be carrying knives."

Earlier this year, schools in Lewisham, south London, and St Albans banned camera phones because of worries that the fad was leading to an increase in playground bullying.

In a comment recently posted on a London community web forum, "Happyslapper2" described the craze as a "joke", writing: "If you feel bored wen ur about an u got a video phone den b*tch slap sum norman, innit."

However, in a sign of a gathering backlash, other forum members disagreed. "It's hardly a joke ... it's f*ckin rude and pea-brained," wrote "slappersidiots".

"If this happy slapping fad continues it will only be a matter of time before someone is seriously hurt," predicted another.

2039
Politics & Religion / The Art of WW III
« on: April 22, 2005, 03:22:47 PM »
April 22, 2005, 7:43 a.m.
Winning the War
But don?t forget the rules of this strange conflict!
Victor Davis Hanson

If we look back at the war that started on September 11, there have emerged some general rules that should guide us in the next treacherous round of the struggle against Islamic fascism, the autocracies that aid and abet it, and the method of terror that characterizes it.

1. Political promises must be kept. Had the United States postponed the scheduled January elections in Iraq ? once the hue and cry of Washington insiders ? the insurrection would have waxed rather than waned. Only the combination of U.S. arms, the training of indigenous forces, and real Iraqi sovereignty can eliminate the vestiges of hard-core jihadists and Saddamites.

Given our previous record ? allowing Saddam to survive in1991, restoring the Kuwaiti royals after the Gulf War, subsidies for the Mubbarak autocracy, and a moral pass given the Saudi royals ? we must bank carefully any good will that we accrue if support for democracy is going to be a credible alternative to the old realpolitik. Reformers with no power in Egypt or the Gulf, who oppose such ?moderate? autocracies, must, despite all the danger that such a policy entails, be seen in the same positive light as those dissidents in far more peril in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Consistency and principle are the keys, and they will be worth more than a division or an air wing in bringing this war to a close.

2. Any warnings to use force ? much less unfortunate unguarded braggadocio ? should be credible and followed through. The efforts of the terrorists are aimed at the psychological humiliation and loss of face of American power, not its actual military defeat. Appearance is as often important as reality, especially for those who live in the eighth rather than the 21st century.

After the horrific butchery of Americans in Fallujah in late March 2004, we promised to hunt down the perpetrators, only to pull back in April and May, and allow the city a subsequent half-year of Islamic terror, before retaking it in November. The initial hesitation almost derailed the slated elections; the subsequent siege ensured their success. Nothing has been more deleterious in this war than the promise of hard force to come, followed by temporization. Either silence about our intent or bold military action is required, though a combination of both is preferable.

3. Diplomatic solutions follow, not precede, military reality. Had we failed in Afghanistan, Musharraf would be an Islamic nationalist today, for the sake of his own survival. Withdrawing from Iraq in defeat would have meant no progress in Lebanon. Some hope followed in the Middle East only because the Intifada was crushed and Arafat is in paradise. The Muslims scholars of Iraq talk differently now than a year ago because thousands of their sympathetic terrorists have been killed in the Sunni Triangle. The would-be Great Mahdi Moqtada Sadr is more buffoon than Khomeini reborn since his militia was crushed last year.

A quarter century, from the Iranian hostage-taking to 9/11, should have taught us the wages of thinking that an Arafat, bin Laden, assorted hostage-takers, an Iranian mullah, Saddam, or Mullah Omar might listen to a reasoned diplomat in striped pants. Our mistake was not so much that appeasement and empty threats made no impression on such cutthroats. The real tragedy instead was that onlookers who wished to ally with us shuddered that the United States either would talk to, or keep its hands off, almost any monster or mass murderer in the Middle East ? if such accommodation meant sort of a continuation of the not so bothersome status quo. In contrast, that bin Laden and Mullah Omar are in hiding, Saddam in chains, Dr. Khan exposed, the young Assad panicking, and Colonel Khadafi on better behavior will slowly teach others the wages of their killing and terrorism and that the United States is as unpredictable in using force as it is constant in supporting democratic reformers.

4. The worst attitude toward the Europeans and the U.N. is publicly to deprecate their impotent machinations while enlisting their aid in extremis. After being slurred by both, we then asked for their military help, peace-keepers, and political intervention ? winning no aid of consequence except contempt in addition to inaction.

Praise the U.N. and Europe to the skies. Yet under no circumstances pressure them to do what they really don?t want to, which only leads to their gratuitous embarrassment and the logical need to get even in the most petty and superficial ways. The U.N. efforts to retard the American removal of Saddam interrupted the timetable of invasion. Its immediate flight after having its headquarters bombed emboldened the terrorists. And a viable U.S. coalition was caricatured by its failed obsequious efforts to lure in France and Germany. We should look to the U.N. and Old Europe only in times of post-bellum calm when it is in the national interest of the United States to give credit for the favorable results of our own daring to opportunistic others ? occasions that are not as rare as we might think.

5. Do not look for logic and consistency in the Middle East where they are not to be found. It makes no sense to be frustrated that Arab intellectuals and reformers damn us for removing Saddam and simultaneously praise democratic rumblings that followed his fall. We should accept that the only palatable scenario for the Arab Street was one equally fanciful: Brave demonstrators took to the barricades, forced Saddam?s departure, created a constitution, held elections, and then invited other Arab reformers into Baghdad to spread such indigenous reform ? all resulting in a society as sophisticated, wealthy, free, and modern as the West, but felt to be morally superior because of its allegiance to Islam. That is the dream that is preferable to the reality that the Americans alone took out the monster of the Middle East and that any peaceful protest against Saddam would have ended in another genocide.

Ever since the departure of the colonials, the United States, due to its power and principled support for democratic Israel, has served a Middle Eastern psychological need to account for its own self-created impotence and misery, a pathology abetted by our own past realpolitik and nurtured by the very autocrats that we sought to accommodate.

After all these years, do not expect praise or gratitude for billions poured into Iraq, Egypt, Jordan, or Palestine or thanks for the liberation of Kuwait, protection of Saudi Arabia in 1990, or the removal of Saddam ? much less for American concern for Muslims in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya, Somalia, the Sudan, or Afghanistan. Our past sins always must be magnified as much as our more recent benefactions are slighted.

In response, American policy should be predicated not on friendship or the desire for appreciation, but on what is in our national interest and what is right ? whose symbiosis is possible only through the current policy of consistently promoting democracy. Constitutional government is not utopia ? only the proper antidote for the sickness in the Middle East, and the one medicine that hateful jihadists, dictators, kings, terrorists, and theocrats all agree that they alike hate.

The events that followed September 11 are the most complex in our history since the end of World War II, and require far more skill and intuition than even what American diplomats needed in the Cold War, when they contained a nuclear but far more predictable enemy. Since 9/11 we have endured a baffling array of shifting and expedient pronouncements and political alliances, both at home and abroad. So we now expect that most who profess support for democratization abroad do so only to the degree that ? and as long as ? the latest hourly news from Iraq is not too bad.

One of the most disheartening things about this war is the realization that on any given day, a number of once-stalwart supporters will suddenly hedge, demand someone?s resignation, or bail, citing all sorts of legitimate grievances without explaining that none of their complaints compares to past disappointments in prior successful wars ? and without worry that the only war in which America was defeated was lost more at home than abroad.

Yet if we get through all this with the extinction of Islamic-fascist terrorism and an end to the Middle East autocracy that spawned and nurtured it ? and I think we are making very good progress in doing just that and in less than four years ? it will only be because of the superb quality of the American military and the skilful diplomacy of those who have so temperately unleashed it.

? Victor Davis Hanson is a military historian and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His website is victorhanson.com.

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Politics & Religion / Intelligence Gathering Piece
« on: April 20, 2005, 09:34:19 AM »
This is the first time I've encountered this blog so I'm hesitant to post this piece; for all I know this author should sport a tinfoil hat. Still, this is the best survey of DOD intelligence practices I've encountered, and all quotes are sourced (go to the URL at the end of the article; the original links to all citations).

The most compelling element here, IMO, is the argument for an intelligence apparatus that has both data gatherers and end users in the same chain of command. A simple conclusion, one, alas, that standard CIA practices prevent.


Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Spy Vs. Spy

Linda Robinson's compelling opening paragraph in US News and World Report is at once suggestive and accusatory. It is suggestive of what human intelligence gathering and analysis can achieve while subtly asking why it was not done before.

In the second week of December 2003, U.S. Special Forces captured an Iraqi man named Fawzi Rashid, a top insurgent leader in Baghdad. Rashid was carrying a letter from Saddam Hussein, U.S. News has learned, that was less than a week old. It would prove to be the key break in the 10-month manhunt for the Iraqi dictator. Military intelligence specialists, working with the Green Berets, persuaded Rashid to identify the courier who had delivered the letter. Two days later, the courier led U.S. forces to Saddam's grim spider hole. The lightning-fast sequence of events was the result of a decision to have intelligence analysts work side by side with soldiers, known in Pentagon-speak as "collectors." "Analysts were telling the collectors what they needed, and collectors were giving their collections right back to the analysts," says a senior Pentagon official, describing Saddam's capture. "What's new . . . is that you had analysts and collectors all under the same chain of command."

If the target in the story was Saddam Hussein, the target of the story was the Central Intelligence Agency. But the Washington Post describes the US military efforts to create a human intelligence gathering infrastructure in less glowing terms, depicting it as a Rumsfeldian dodge to conduct operations without Congressional oversight.

The Pentagon, expanding into the CIA's historic bailiwick, has created a new espionage arm and is reinterpreting U.S. law to give Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld broad authority over clandestine operations abroad, according to interviews with participants and documents obtained by The Washington Post.

The previously undisclosed organization, called the Strategic Support Branch, arose from Rumsfeld's written order to end his "near total dependence on CIA" for what is known as human intelligence. Designed to operate without detection and under the defense secretary's direct control, the Strategic Support Branch deploys small teams of case officers, linguists, interrogators and technical specialists alongside newly empowered special operations forces. ... Pentagon officials emphasized their intention to remain accountable to Congress, but they also asserted that defense intelligence missions are subject to fewer legal constraints than Rumsfeld's predecessors believed. ... Under Title 10, for example, the Defense Department must report to Congress all "deployment orders," or formal instructions from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to position U.S. forces for combat. But guidelines issued this month by Undersecretary for Intelligence Stephen A. Cambone state that special operations forces may "conduct clandestine HUMINT operations . . . before publication" of a deployment order, rendering notification unnecessary. Pentagon lawyers also define the "war on terror" as ongoing, indefinite and global in scope. That analysis effectively discards the limitation of the defense secretary's war powers to times and places of imminent combat.

At a Department of Defense briefing, an unnamed senior Defense official flatly denied these charges, emphasizing that these Strategic Support Teams were in fact lineal descendants of earlier units called "Human Augmentation Teams"; that they would operate directly under senior commanders -- but not the Secretary of Defense -- and that the tasks of the teams were coordinated with the Director of Central Intelligence. That hardly mollified some critics. AP writer Robert Burns reports "Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., and other Democrats called for hearings, but Republicans balked. According to The Washington Post, the Department of Defense is changing the guidelines with respect to oversight and notification of Congress by military intelligence. Is this true or false?" Feinstein wrote in a letter to Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld." One key difference, according to the IHT was that ""DOD is not looking to go develop strategic intelligence," said one senior adviser to Rumsfeld who has an intelligence background. "They're looking for information like, where's a good landing strip?"

It appears that they are looking for slightly more than that. Global Security reports that the Pentagon is building up a constellation of human intelligence support systems including:

J2X CONOPS -- a system for providing analytic support to HUMINT operations at the strategic, theater, and tactical echelons;
ROVER -- a geospatial Information System-Palmtop- Digital camera system;
FALCON, FORUM and SMINDS -- which are automatic translation systems enabling people of different languages to speak to each other simultaneously or interpet documents in foreign languages while in the field.
WMD1st and Digital RSTA -- WMD analysis and a targeting tool; and
a HUMINT laptop system to house all the relevant tools.
This looks very much like a closed-loop system in which intelligence leads can be prosecuted iteratively until they lead to action, with no discernible boundary in between. But it is not the philosophical abolition of the barrier between thought and deed that really rankles. It is also about turf. Linda Robinson asserts that the scale of the Pentagon effort effectively threatens the CIA monopoly on spying, whatever the Department of Defense says.

A key flashpoint has been the recruitment and handling of sources. For many years, all intelligence sources recruited by U.S. agencies, including the Pentagon, were registered and maintained through the CIA's InterSource Registry. Now the Pentagon has begun registering the human sources it uses for military purposes under a separate registry, called J2X.

Whether or not the Pentagon succeeds in its endeavors remains to be seen. What is less debatable is the need to improve human intelligence operations. Marc Ruel Gercht in a Weekly Standard article described the CIA's currently human intelligence system as seriously broken. He believed that as presently constituted the Agency had no chance of significantly penetrating the ranks of the terrorist enemy.

One can, however, grade intelligence services on whether they have established operational methods that would maximize the chances of success against less demanding targets--for example, against Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda, which is by definition an ecumenical organization constantly searching for holy-warrior recruits. It is by this standard that ... the CIA will continue to fail, assuming it maintains its current practices. ... It was in great part structurally foreordained: Not only the promotion system but also the decision to deploy the vast majority of case officers overseas under official cover--posing as U.S. diplomats, military officers, and so on--set in motion a counterproductive psychology and methods of operation that still dominate the CIA today. ... And there is simply no way that case officers--who still today are overwhelmingly deployed overseas under official cover or, worse, at home in ever-larger task forces--can possibly meet, recruit, or neutralize the most dangerous targets in a sensible, sustainable way.

It is into that gaping breach that the CIA's rivals will sail.

posted by wretchard at 11:34 AM

http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/

2041
Politics & Religion / Cross Training & Compartmentalization
« on: April 15, 2005, 11:52:27 AM »
Jayceblk relays:

Quote
Sgt. Dennis Tueller, Salt Lake City Police published an article "How Close Is Too Close" in SWAT magazine (Survival Weapons and Tactics) 1983. In this article, he discussed the results of a series of tests he had run. His tests showed that, with people of various ages, weights, and heights, they could on average close a distance of 21 feet in about 1.05 seconds.

That time: 1.05 seconds was the "drill time" taught by Col. Jeff
Cooper at GunSite for drawing a handgun and firing two aimed shots. Knowing  that people who have been shot do not always or perhaps even often fall down instantly, or otherwise stop dead in their tracks; Tueller
concluded that a person armed with a knife or club at the so called
"intermediate range" of 21 feet was a potentially lethal threat. The
"Tueller drill" is a standard part of my Personal Protection Course, along with a similar drill I can't tell you about because it only works once.


IMO this is why cross training with a variety of weapons at a variety of ranges is so important. Think the foot jab is a great tool when being rushed, but shooters don't practice it, nor do MA practitioners train it while drawing a practice gun. Think those of us who are accustomed to drifting across curriculums and snagging what works have a leg up, so to speak, on those whose training is more compartmentalized.

2042
Politics & Religion / China's Latin American Foray
« on: April 09, 2005, 09:31:03 PM »
This kind of stuff doesn't appear to be on the MSM's radar, but is well worth heeding IMO.



April 9, 2005
China's Foray Into Latin America
By Frederick W. Stakelbeck, Jr.


Over forty years after the Cuban Missile Crisis, America once again finds itself in the crosshairs of a determined, Cuban-based adversary possessing the capability to inflict incalculable damage to U.S. democracy efforts and regional stability. That adversary is China.

For two decades, Soviet defense, economic and intelligence assistance allowed Fidel Castro?s Cuba to project its own brand of Stalinist totalitarianism throughout Latin America infesting countries such as Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Chile. Castro?s dream of leading a new Latin American empire ended abruptly in the early 1990?s with the fall of the Soviet Union, sending the island nation into a catastrophic, decade-long economic freefall.

Recognizing an opportunity for a permanent base of influence and operations in the Western Hemisphere, China has stepped into the void caused by the Soviet collapse to embrace Castro, giving the Cuban leader a second chance to secure a place among the world?s communist immortals.

Castro?s fondness of China is well-known. In fact, Cuba was the first Latin American country to establish relations with China in 1961. Since that time, Cuba and China have attempted to balance domestic economic expansion with a strong, central control of the political process. As a result, natural synergies have emerged allowing the two countries to develop a mutually beneficial relationship in the areas of defense, finance, education, energy, intelligence, science, and telecommunications.

The bilateral relationship has grown in both its diversity and intensity recently, heightened by Cuba and China?s mutual disdain for what they see as America?s global hegemony and intrusiveness. Their joint, anti-democracy stance was further solidified in March when Cuba?s Foreign Ministry Office issued a statement supporting the ?one China? principle and the Chinese anti-secession law.

Recent diplomatic overtures and a renewed commitment to the Castro government make it clear that China views Cuba as a valuable ally moving forward. In November 2004, Chinese President Hu Jintao and 200 Chinese businesspersons took part in the China Investment and Trade Forum in Havana. As a result of this increased economic cooperation, China has become the island?s third largest trading partner behind only Venezuela and Spain. This, as Chinese President Hu Jintao reaffirmed his country?s commitment to Latin America by announcing an astounding $100 billion investment in the region in the next decade.

But China?s primary interest in Cuba is not related to commerce. Rather, the country is interested in fostering defense ties with the island and developing a state-of-the-art intelligence infrastructure to monitor US activities in the region. Intelligence and spying, not Cuban cigars and sugar cane, motivates Beijing.

Since the late 1990?s, independent Cuban journalists have reported an increasing number of Chinese diplomats, scientists, engineers, and military advisors arriving in Cuba. As a result, the Cuban Chinese community now makes up 1 percent of the island?s total population of 11.3 million people.

In the face of an increasing Chinese presence only 90 miles off the Florida coast, the question remains: Will Fidel Castro become a conduit for Chinese expansionist aspirations in the region setting the stage for another confrontation with the US? Given Cuba?s dismal economic condition, Castro?s deteriorating health, and a consensus within the Cuban government that China offers a formidable ally against American regional authority and control ? the answer is increasingly yes.

When considering the possibility of another confrontation with Cuba, it is important to remember that Fidel Castro is the same man who in 1962 pleaded with the Soviet Union to initiate a nuclear attack on the US He is directly responsible for a Latin American communist insurgency that has resulted in regional destabilization and illegal immigration over America?s southern border. After coming to power, he nationalized billions of dollars worth of American property without compensation to its owners. His clandestine support of Latin American drug smugglers and trafficking is well known.

In March, Cuba?s Deputy Foreign Minister Alberto Moreno took a page out of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez?s book of socialist paranoia by stating,

US officials are publicly speaking of regime change in Cuba. They were already attacking us as sponsors of terrorism. Now we are told we are an outpost of tyranny. We do not discount the possibility of military action.

These are merely diversionary comments designed to conceal illicit or subversive actions on the part of both China and Cuba.

Both countries are working together to penetrate US intelligence, collect classified information on US ports and navel assets, and secure information on the latest US science and technology. China and Cuba have increased their cooperation in the areas of cyber-terrorism, biological and chemical weapons research and development, and missile capabilities. In addition, China?s use of the Bejucal base in Cuba, as well as facilities in Wajay and Santiago de Cuba, pose a growing threat to US national security.

In the face of international pressure, comprehensive US legislative action such as the Cuban Democracy Act, which prohibits foreign-based subsidiaries of US companies from trading with Cuba, and the Helms-Burton Act, which denies certain visas and gives American citizens the right to sue foreign investors, should be continued and strengthened. In addition, a ?Cuban Contingency Plan? should be formulated to counter any increased defense and intelligence activities initiated by Cuba which may involve hostile, non-hemispheric foreign powers such as China.

Moreover, bulk carriers and transports offloading at Cuban ports should be closely monitored for offensive or intelligence-oriented contraband including: advanced satellite communications and jamming equipment, missiles and their components, mobile launch platforms, sophisticated military hardware, and tracking devices.

It is no coincidence that China is positioning itself in the Gulf of Mexico, Panamanian Peninsula, Canada?s British Columbia, and Venezuela. It is also no coincidence that the Chinese are spending billions of dollars to upgrade antiquated Soviet military facilities in Cuba. Not surprisingly, escalating Chinese economic involvement in Latin America since the 1990?s has brought with it a resurgence of socialist behavior and empathy.

Recent actions by the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere are designed to secure state-sponsored outposts at strategic ?choke? points that one day can be used by Beijing to place acute pressure on the US and its allies. In this regard, recent comments made by Chinese sympathizers such as Venezuela?s Hugo Chavez that a ?new geopolitical map of alliances is emerging? support a troubling trend of inflammatory comments by Latin leaders. Otto Reich, a Cuban-born US diplomat under the first President Bush stated in March.

The US needs a secure and prosperous hemisphere not only to ensure a peaceful neighborhood in which to live, but also to be able to project its power to the farthest reaches of the globe.

Fidel Castro is an increasingly isolated man frustrated by a communist strategy that has produced 40 years of suffering for the Cuban people. As his years as president wind down, he is seeking to solidify his socialist legacy. What better way to achieve this goal than by playing one final cruel joke on America by allowing communist China unrestricted access to the Western Hemisphere?

One final question for Washington. If an aggressive, Cold War-era Soviet Union made bilateral defense agreements with countries in Latin America; purchased large quantities of vital raw materials from Canada; obtained vast amounts of crude oil from Venezuela; and established ports in Cuba and Panama, would America have stood by and watched?

Frederick W. Stakelbeck, Jr. is a freelance journalist based in Philadelphia and a contributor to the The American Thinker.

2043
Politics & Religion / Review of the Silberman-Robb Commisssion Report
« on: April 08, 2005, 07:34:52 AM »
Perhaps this is misfiled; it's a review of a recent report on the state of US intelligence gathering. Think the most salient point the author raises here is that we'd be far better off greatly reducing the size of our intelligence community by dumping the dead weight and then rebuilding. As someone who has made a living over the years by walking into dysfunctional organizations and making them work--often times by firing all the boneheads first--I couldn't agree more.

April 07, 2005, 8:08 a.m.
Intelligence Failures
Virtues and sins of commission.
Michael Ledeen

Two cheers for the Silberman-Robb Commission Report, which for the first time raises some of the basic issues about the rot that has long festered within the intelligence community. Yes, it?s too long, (much too long), and unfortunately the authors are forever telling us ?we think, we recommend, we believe,? rather than just writing simple declarative English. But okay, that?s the way commissions work, and there is a lot here that makes it worth the heavy plowing to get through the 600 pages. Unfortunately, the entire argument ? one of the great merits of the enterprise is that there is actually a sustained and coherent argument from beginning to end ? rests on an unprovable assumption that is unnecessary and, alas, quite likely misleading.

The good things are very good, and the very best thing is that they recognize that intelligence is more an art than a science, and they therefore rightly insist that the success or failure of the intelligence community will ultimately depend on the quality of the people and how they are treated. I can?t remember the last time that was said in a public document, or even in the mounting pile of commentary on the report, and it?s really the most important thing. Silberman/Robb say it, say it often, and try to figure out how best to do it. They recognize that the culture of the community is rotten ? the results speak for themselves, after all ? and they suggest ways to retain talented people, ranging from attractive side benefits like travel, sabbaticals, and greater opportunities to mix with the outside intellectual world.

Changing the culture club
They recognize that the community will need both generalists and specialists, and they properly insist that there must be room for both. If an analyst wants to spend her career studying Yemen, and Yemen alone, it might be a good thing. If a case officer wants to spend decades in Central Asia, we should probably encourage him to do it. I agree entirely, but this requires a radical revision in the way promotions and awards are handed out, and it?s not going to be easy to find leaders with the confidence and courage necessary to do it. Which puts us back in front of the basic problem once again. How do you find good people, and how do you keep them once you?ve found them?

They are also alarmed at a recent brain drain that has left the community bottom-heavy with new arrivals, and they suggest the creation of an ?intelligence university? where the recruits can be properly trained. They hope that this, combined with their recommendations to make life in the community more attractive, will help solve the manpower problem. But here, too, the chickens and eggs often become indistinguishable from one another. We?re dealing with a failed culture, as the commission tells us over and over again. Who?s going to staff the university? If it?s the remaining ?experts? (that is, mostly the mediocre ones who didn?t or couldn?t join the brain drain), how can Intel U produce good graduates? It just becomes a method of perpetuating the failed culture, doesn?t it?

The commission vigorously endorses ?competitive analysis,? and is remarkably open-minded about the best way to accomplish this. I think they are right to recognize that this will often depends on the subject; sometimes it will be best to ask outside analysts to take a fresh look, other questions will be best addressed by ?Teams B? from inside the community. Their insistence on the urgency of intellectual conflict within the community is one of the most refreshing parts of the report, and one can only hope that Negroponte, Goss, and Jacoby take it to heart.

The report suffers from the community?s favorite conceit: that there is something called ?tradecraft? that distinguishes an intelligence analyst or case officer from every other scholar or investigator. In the case of analysis, this is nonsense; it?s one of the little clouds that intelligence officers use to dismiss conflicting views and criticism. Yes, those who analyze satellite images need special skills, but so does a sociologist analyzing urban turmoil. And the ?tradecraft? of the real spooks, the case officers and deep cover spies, has been perhaps the greatest community failure for at least a generation. Here, the commission identifies one of the prime reasons for that failure: The community rewards ?recruitments? rather than finding precious secrets from our enemies. This in turn puts a premium on getting ?assets? to accept money, so that the case officer can add a notch to his ?asset belt.? But there are many cases in which people with invaluable information won?t take money from CIA or DIA or the FBI; they?re willing to cooperate with us, but not work for us. Yet the community culture is famously bad at dealing with such people.

All of which leads to two conclusions that the commission could not reach, even though, reading between the lines, it seems pretty clear they would have if they could have: First, there must be accountability, and this means that lots of people should be fired (and should have been fired long since, especially after 9/11). And second, that, instead of expanding personnel ? as the president requested and Congress obliged after the terrorist attacks three and a half years ago, and as the president again requested and Congress again obliged following the dreadful recommendations of the 9/11 Commission just before last year?s elections ? we should drastically reduce manpower, and then, if necessary, slowly rebuild.

If talent and accountability are indeed the crucial issues ? and, to repeat, the great strength of the report is its recognition that these are the crux of the matter ? then it is impossible to get a good intelligence community by shuffling the failed bureaucrats around in new configurations, and then providing them with lots of new bodies to badly train and educate. It is a guaranteed formula for worse intelligence because it produces more and more bad analysts and ineffective case officers. The intelligence community needs a big-time purge, not a brainless expansion accompanied by a monster reshuffle of boxes, connections, and interagency groups.

The commission couldn?t say these things, because they were not part of its mandate. Instead, they occasionally hint at these conclusions ? I can?t imagine such a great talent as Larry Silberman (who should be sitting on the Supreme Court) submitting to total censorship on such an important matter ? and probably raised the matter, verbally, when they briefed the top congressional and executive-branch officials.

Dead Wrong?
Finally, the unprovable assumption I started with: that there were no WMDs in Iraq. The report says, over and over, that the assessment that Saddam had an active WMD program, and that there were significant quantities of WMDs, was ?dead wrong.? But we don?t know that. Indeed, we can not possibly know it. All we know, at the moment, is that we didn?t find any, and the current wisdom has it that we didn?t find them because they weren?t there in the first place.

To which one must ask: Were all the intelligence services of the world ?dead wrong?? Were the others as bad as we were? Did Brits, French, Germans, Russians, Israelis, Italians, Egyptians, Jordanians, and Spaniards, to name a few, all come to the same wrong conclusion? What are the odds on that? Why should anyone believe that? Aging readers of NRO may recall that, months before the onset of Operation Iraqi Freedom, I wrote that WMDs were being smuggled to Iran and Syria. Others, including people on the ground, have said the same or similar things. On what basis are those hypotheses dismissed?

They are dismissed by constant reference to the Iraq Survey Group. Without putting too fine an edge on it, the ISG comes from the same intelligence community that the commission savages for hundreds of pages. Why should this particular group?s findings (actually non-findings) be taken as canonical? It makes no sense to me.

I don?t think it would have weakened the commission?s critique one iota to have said, ?We do not know whether Saddam actually had these things. We only know that none has been found. If there were none, it is one kind of intelligence failure. If there were WMDs but don?t seem to be there now, it?s another kind of failure. Either way, we failed.?

The great advantage of taking that position ? aside from its logical superiority to the unprovable assumption ? is that it reminds us that the war against the terror masters is not a war in a single country, but a life-and-death struggle over a vast region, in which our enemies help one another in many ways. And our failure to recognize that, and plan accordingly, is truly the greatest intelligence failure of them all.


? Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. He is resident scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute.


http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200504070808.asp

2044
Politics & Religion / Eureka Alert
« on: April 02, 2005, 01:53:29 PM »
Eureka Alert is a site that compiles recent scientific findings. They can be found at:

http://www.eurekalert.org/

2045
Public release date: 1-Apr-2005

Contact: Joanna Downer
jdowner1@jhmi.edu
410-614-5105
Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions


US-India research team completes analysis of X chromosome


Dozens of new genes identified
By intensely and systematically comparing the human X chromosome to genetic information from chimpanzees, rats and mice, a team of scientists from the United States and India has uncovered dozens of new genes, many of which are located in regions of the chromosome already tied to disease.

Regions of the X chromosome, one of the two sex chromosomes (Y is the other), have been linked to mental retardation and numerous other disorders, but finding the particular genetic abnormalities involved has been difficult.

The team's accomplishment, described in the April issue of Nature Genetics, should speed research into diseases associated with the X chromosome and encourage similar analyses of other chromosomes.

"To our knowledge, this is the first time critical analysis of an entire chromosome has been done by a group that wasn't involved in determining the chromosome's genetic sequence," says study leader Akhilesh Pandey, M.D., Ph.D., an assistant professor in the McKusick-Nathans Institute of Genetic Medicine at Johns Hopkins and chief scientific adviser to the Institute of Bioinformatics (IOB) in Bangalore, India, where the analyses took place. "We didn't start small. We wanted to prove that complete annotation can be done, and done in a way that lets you find new and unexpected things."

For 18 months, 26 Indian scientists pored through the publicly available sequence of the X chromosome (information generated by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute in England and others) to identify genes and other important parts of its DNA.

But unlike other efforts, the team didn't just "mine the data" by using computers to search for known patterns in the genetic sequence. Instead, Pandey decided they would look for similarities between the human X chromosome's protein-encoding instructions and corresponding regions in the mouse. Regions that were identical or nearly so were then examined carefully by IOB biologists.

"We didn't want to start out by saying that genes had to look a certain way," says Pandey. "So our only initial assumption was that if a genetic region is important and codes for a protein, the sequence will be conserved at the protein level. Thus, even if the genetic sequence is different here and there, the protein sequence could still be the same."

Essentially, the researchers took advantage of the redundancy inherent in the genetic code. DNA's four building blocks -- A, T, C and G -- act as instructions for proteins in select three-block sets. These three-block sets each "code" for just one of the 20 possible protein building blocks, or amino acids, but some of the sets code for the same amino acid. For example, the DNA sequences TTGAGGAGC and CTACGATCA are quite different, but both specify the same three amino acids -- leucine, arginine and serine, in that order.

"Instead of telling the computer what to look for, we let nature tell the computer what was important," says Pandey. "When you align the protein-encoding instructions of the human and mouse, the genes jump out at you."

In the regions that were the same between species, the scientists found 43 new "gene structures" that encode proteins. Some of the newly identified genes sit in regions long tied to X-linked mental retardation syndromes, which appear only in boys, or other disorders. Quite remarkably, Pandey says, almost half of the new genes don't look like any previously known genes, nor do they look like each other.

"These would not be found any other way, because no one knew to look for them," he says. "No one had ever identified any aspect of their sequences as being important."

The IOB scientists and the U.S. members of the team experimentally investigated a few of the new genes to confirm the comparative approach's validity. Their results, as well as data created by other scientists since the U.S-India team started working, confirm the existence of some of the newly identified genes. The team's work also showed that some so-called pseudogenes on the X chromosome are actually expressed, or transcribed, which contradicts the widespread idea that they are functionless.

"We're really trying to show that complete annotation of chromosomes can be done, and that doing it this way means you can find things you don't expect to find," says Pandey. "It's long, painstaking work, but it's worth it."

Pandey hopes that researchers will take the initiative to annotate sequenced genetic information and validate regions used in their work.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2005-04/jhmi-urt040105.php

2046
Politics & Religion / SOL in NJ
« on: April 01, 2005, 08:33:25 PM »
I wish this was an April fools joke, but it appears there is a NJ Assemblyman who wants to confiscate homes where an "illegal" gun is found. Maybe we can quarter British troops in these confiscated homes and thus violate the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, and probably the 14th amendments in one fell swoop.


Manzo favors house seizure in gun cases

Wednesday, March 30, 2005
By Michaelangelo Conte
Journal staff writer

The spate of slayings over the first three months of the year has prompted Assemblyman Louis Manzo, D-Jersey City, to introduce a bill which would make it possible to confiscate a home or car in which an illegal firearm is found - even if the gun doesn't belong to the owner.

"Simply put, we cannot afford to lose another life, at a time when it has become a daily routine to read about another life lost in our neighborhoods as a result of gun violence," Manzo says in a letter asking state Assembly Speaker Albio Sires, D-West New York, to expedite a vote on the bill.

"Now is the time to send a message that the consequences for harboring an illegal firearm are severe and will not be tolerated by our law-makers, communities or families," Manzo says in the letter.

Manzo said the bill will make the stakes so high that people will "think twice about driving a friend (they) know carries a gun, and about allowing a family member to harbor an illegal gun in the home."

Even if the bill were passed, however, it would likely be challenged as unconstitutional, said Frank Askin, director of the Constitutional Clinic at Rutgers University in Newark.

"I'm skeptical the New Jersey Supreme Court would uphold it under the state constitution," Askin said yesterday. "I think under the state constitution there would at least have to be a innocent owner exception.

"The New Jersey Supreme Court has been much more protective of private property rights than the Supreme Court has been in recent years," Askin said.

Askin said confiscating a person's house, especially in a case where the gun found did not belong to the owner, would likely be seen by the court as excessive.

"Taking the house is so disproportionate to the crime, I think it would constitute cruel and unusual punishment," Askin said. "I would certainly say the American Civil Liberties Union would challenge that."

2047
Politics & Religion / Head in the Sand Inteligence Education
« on: March 31, 2005, 10:37:10 AM »
No doubt many of those whining loudest about the failure to find WMDs in Iraq are also opposed to the program discussed below.


March 31, 2005, 7:47 a.m.
Who Will Defend the Defenders?
The academy takes aim at the Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program
Stanley Kurtz

America's intelligence agencies need recruits who understand the languages and cultures of the Middle East. The lives of our soldiers depend on it. Trouble is, the leftist professors who control America's universities want to stop their students from joining the CIA. The ROTC has long been banned from our most prestigious campuses. For decades, area-studies professors have undermined scholarship programs designed to bring knowledgeable recruits into our defense and intelligence agencies. And now, 40 years of anti-military scheming has created what may become the sharpest campus conflict of all ? a fight over the newly established Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program.

These new scholarships are named after Senate Intelligence Committee chairman Pat Roberts (R., Kan.). Graduate students receive up to $25,000 a year for their studies, in exchange for a promise to serve in an intelligence agency for at least 18 months after graduation. The identities of Roberts Scholars are not made public, and this has provided leftist professors with a pretext to oppose the program. The claim is that Roberts trainees will spy on their professors. It's also alleged that the Roberts program may give some countries an excuse to ban American field-researchers.

Opponents of the Roberts program say it's not the spying they object to, just the secrecy. If someone wants to work for the CIA and do fieldwork in another country, that's just fine, says anthropologist David H. Price, the Roberts program's most outspoken critic. So long as CIA recruits openly identify themselves to every Pakistani villager they talk to, Price is happy.

Assisted suicide for aspiring CIA analysts may be morally acceptable to Professor Price, but I suspect Roberts Fellows may feel differently. It's tough to take the secrecy excuse seriously when our leftist professorate has banned and boycotted utterly transparent military and intelligence programs for decades. ROTC participation is public. So why aren't the Roberts Programs' critics agitating to bring the ROTC back to campus?

NOTHING NEW IN THE IVORY TOWERS OF ACADEMIA
We wouldn't need the Roberts Fellowships to begin with if it weren't for decades of misbehavior by America's professors. Every time Congress creates a scholarship program designed to bring language and area experts into our national-security apparatus, the academy subverts it. And every time a scholarship program is undermined, Congress responds by creating an even more targeted program. Now Congress has been forced to create the most targeted program of all ? an advanced scholarship expressly designed to train mature intelligence analysts. Naturally, the program requires secrecy. But of course, if the academy had allowed the earlier, broader, and fully transparent programs to work the way they were supposed to, we wouldn't be looking at the Roberts program today.

Back in the 1950s, a Cold War Congress passed the National Defense Education Act for the express purpose of funneling foreign-language experts into our defense and intelligence apparatus. Eventually, the National Defense Education Act was incorporated into the Higher Education Act of 1965 as Title VI. Slowly but surely, the academy turned Title VI into a liberal arts subsidy, de-emphasizing the linguistic expertise and government recruitment that were the original focus of the program. With the advent of Edward Said's "post-colonial studies" in the 1980s, area-studies programs pocketed millions of federal dollars, even as professors claimed it was immoral to put their knowledge at the service of the American government.

Just after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, then Senate Intelligence Committee chairman David Boren (D., Okla.) saw that Title VI wasn't working. Despite millions of dollars in government subsidies to Middle East and other area-studies programs, our defense and intelligence agencies had few personnel who understood the languages and cultures of the Middle East. That's why Boren established the National Security Education Program (NSEP), a scholarship that required beneficiaries to serve in a national security related agency after graduation.

The leftist professorate immediately set out to gut the NSEP. First, they expanded the definition of "national security-related agency," until students could serve almost anywhere in government after graduation. Even that didn't stop professors from trying to destroy the NSEP altogether, as I showed in "Boycott Exposure." Is it any wonder that Sen. Roberts is still trying to solve the problem that confronted Chairman Boren 15 years ago?

The academy is complaining about the Roberts program because it's specifically targeted to produce mature and knowledgeable intelligence analysts, and because the names of those analysts remain secret. Well, what do you expect? For decades the academy deliberately diluted and subverted broader and more transparent programs. Under pressure from the war on terror, Congress has been left with no choice but to create a highly targeted program designed to accomplish precisely what our leftist professors have spent decades trying to prevent.

PROTECTING ROBERTS FELLOWS, ABROAD AND AT HOME Why does the Roberts program have to be secret? Unfortunately, it's not just a matter of protecting lives abroad. Fellows also need to be protected at home. Clearly, were participants publicly named, they would be liable to harassment by leftist professors and students alike. While some professors pretend that all they object to is the program's secrecy, we know that other professors openly admit to refusing letters of recommendation to students in the NSEP. Given the history of vicious scholarly boycotts against the NSEP (see my "Boycott Exposure,") it's obvious that Roberts scholars will be subject to similar harassment, intimidation, and retaliation.

But isn't higher education built on the principle of transparency? No, it is not. The Roberts Program's opponents claim that "secrecy has no place in academe." Actually, the academy is virtually built on institutionalized secrecy. Everything from faculty hiring, to promotion, to tenure, to juried journal submissions, to decisions to publish university press books, to the authorship of student evaluations of professors, is secret. And in every case, the secrecy is designed to protect those vulnerable to retaliation. I fear that under the guise of fair and neutral scholarship, academic secrecy is too often used to protect the Left's political monopoly on campus. But no one can claim that institutionalized secrecy designed to protect those susceptible to retaliation is unheard of in academe. In the case of intelligence fellowships, secrecy is justified by a long and ongoing record of professorial hostility and retaliation ? not to mention the fact that, overseas, the lives of Roberts Fellows are literally at stake.

Roberts Program opponents point to the abuses of the McCarthy era and claim that recruits will be asked to spy on their professors. According to Sen. Roberts himself, that's absurd. Roberts points to the vast array of safeguards against domestic spying abuses put in place in the 1970s. It's perfectly fair to temper our intelligence needs with attention to the dangers of abuse. But what's the point of instituting all those safeguards if we give up on training knowledgeable intelligence analysts altogether? Despite their denials, that sort of surrender is exactly what Roberts Program opponents want.

The great exception here is the courageous Felix Moos, the anthropologist who first floated the idea for something like a Pat Roberts program. Moos knows perfectly well that Title VI subsidies aren't bringing recruits into our defense or intelligence agencies. "I'm a former director of a Title VI center," he says, "and I think it would take a decade to reform that system or to create a new title from scratch." All honor to Felix Moos, and to Sen. Roberts, for creating this new program. But the need for the Roberts program only highlights the necessity of finally doing something about Title VI. The sooner we establish an Advisory Board to reform Title VI, the better.

Ironically, the same academics who oppose an Advisory Board for Title VI are demanding an Advisory Board for the Roberts program. Their strategy is to destroy the Roberts Program by putting scholars on the board who would "out" student participants. Of course, both Title VI and the Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program ought to have boards. But the point of these boards is to represent the requirements of the government agencies served by the programs. The academy wants to pack these boards with scholars so that, in effect, the professors can oversee themselves. Instead, the boards of both the Roberts Program and Title VI should be composed of representatives of government agencies and congressional appointees. A Roberts Program Board might also benefit from scholars with a proven track record of cooperation with the intelligence community.

THE ACADEMY'S DUTY TO THE STATE
The controversy over the Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program is just the latest episode in the American academy's shameful betrayal of its duty to our country. It wasn't enough for leftist scholars to dissociate themselves from Title VI or the NSEP. They had to actively dilute and undermine these programs for others, until these scholarships could no longer fulfill the purpose for which they were intended.

The deeper issue here is the relationship between the academy and society. The many opponents of the Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program argue that the academy should be independent of the state. But the Roberts program's isolated and courageous defender, Felix Moos, responds that scholars have a duty to help their country. Moos faced down his critics during a fascinating colloquium sponsored by The Chronicle of Higher Education, repeatedly making the point that "we are at war." (The Chronicle also published "Cloak and Classroom," an excellent article describing the larger battle over the Pat Roberts program.)

To Moos's critics, saying we're at war is a non sequitur ? a point with no bearing on the debate over the Roberts fellowships. Funny, but when the higher-education lobby comes to Capitol Hill looking for more Title VI money, it's happy to tell Congress that professors care about national security. But unmasking higher education's hypocrisy is less important than exposing the illusion that the academy can be entirely divorced from society. It isn't just a question of the academy's unquenchable thirst for federal money. Scholars are quick to bridle at the thought that America's intelligence needs might complicate their lives. Yet these professors can't see that their decades-long war against defense and intelligence scholarships has endangered the lives of every American. Ultimately, the academy's freedom and prosperity are guaranteed by our soldiers.

With any luck, the bitter battle over the Pat Roberts Intelligence Scholars Program will expose the delusions of the academics for what they are. The entire system of federal scholarships for area-studies students has to be reformed. The shame of excluding the ROTC and military recruiters from our campuses has to end. Most of all, we've got to find a way to break the intellectual monopoly of the leftist professorate and revive the marketplace of ideas on our college campuses.

http://www.nationalreview.com/kurtz/kurtz200503310747.asp

2048
Politics & Religion / Fascism Rising in Russia?
« on: March 29, 2005, 07:28:13 PM »
Russian Politics, Playing With Fuhrer


By Masha Lipman

Tuesday, March 29, 2005; Page A15

Sergei Mironov, speaker of the Russian upper house, was talking recently about the "real threat of a fascist putsch in Russia" -- "a new fuhrer with fascist-type, nationalist ideology" emerging in the 2008 presidential campaign.

But while it would seem that so grave a danger calls for urgent and resolute action, Mironov sounded vague and nerveless about what should be done. Perhaps, he mused, the looming threat would simply impel the Russian people to ask President Vladimir Putin "to stay, not to leave" in 2008, when his constitutional term expires.

The idea that the Kremlin might use the risk of a nationalist takeover as a justification for scrapping the election and extending Putin's tenure is but one of several 2008 scenarios thought to be circulating in that body. It's telling that the one scenario missing from the political rumor mill and analysts' forecasts is a democratic transfer of presidential authority, something that has never occurred in Russia.

As in any "soft" authoritarian regime, the prospect of yielding power to a political rival is unacceptable to the ruling elite. Putin presides over a political system in which state power is basically usurped by the administration. Other branches of government are reduced to mere decoration, and decision making is confined within the Kremlin walls.

Laws and courts are bent to fit the needs of the regime. In addition, the new Putin elite has increasingly gained control over huge chunks of Russia's resources, the most striking example being the destruction of the oil company Yukos, followed by the sale of its best asset in a farcical auction and its prompt resale to a state-run company controlled by Putin's top aide. Big power and big property have become so closely entangled in Putin's Russia that a change of supreme authority would be bound to result in a new round of property redistribution, stripping those in the Kremlin's inner circle and their clients of their gains. The example of Ukraine's former president, Leonid Kuchma, provides a horrible prospect for Russia's ruling elite: Kuchma failed to preserve the status quo, and now he may be facing legal action at the hands of his political rivals.

Hence the urgency of "the challenge of 2008," as the effort to preserve the political status quo has been called in political circles.

Rumors have it that the Kremlin may attempt a replay of the anointment that propelled Putin to power in 2000, or that it might consider a change in the constitution that would provide for a transition to a parliamentary system, with Putin assuming the role of an all-powerful prime minister and leaving the now-powerless presidency to a trusted puppet. Whatever scenario the Kremlin might opt for, it is not at all sure that it would be able to handle it without provoking a political crisis.

Capitalizing on the nationalist threat appears to be especially destabilizing. Nationalism and xenophobia are not invented dangers but very real ones. Ethnic violence and even the murder of non-Russians -- ranging from Tajik children to African diplomats -- have become almost routine on the streets of Moscow and other cities. Nationalist literature is abundant in respectable Moscow bookstores. In the polls, an increasing number of Russians support ideas such as "Russia is for Russians." Young people are more likely than older ones to share the view that "ethnic minorities have too much power in our country." Overall, more people accept this idea than reject it.

Putin's policies have played a large role in the rise of ethnic bias and hatred. The ongoing, atrocious war in Chechnya has had a brutalizing effect on those who have served in it (about 1 million altogether in the past decade) and on the nation as a whole. Putin and his aides have stirred the besieged-fortress mentality by resorting to militant, Soviet-style rhetoric and implying that the West is seeking to harm Russia. A raving nationalist journalist is granted prime time on television and radio professing extreme anti-Western views to the broad public. Almost invariably the police respond to ethnic violence by denying the ethnic element in it and qualifying such crimes as "mere hooliganism."

Rather than taking drastic measures to curb the nationalist threat, the Kremlin opts for a policy of using it to its own advantage: Such a threat is a sure justification for tough policies. Even the squeamish West is unlikely to insist that democratic procedures be observed if there's real risk of a fascist lunatic emerging as the leader of a nuclear state. Putin or one of his trusted men may come to be regarded as acceptably benign compared with a "fuhrer."

Before the parliamentary election of 2003 the Kremlin masterminded creation of a nationalist party, Rodina, headed by Dmitry Rogozin. Rodina drew the nationalist vote, but it did even better than the Kremlin had expected, and today it is on the rise. To what extent Rogozin himself is controlled by the Kremlin -- or whether he'll be able to keep control of the sentiments and impulses of his constituency -- is an open question. In seeking to ensure the survival of the current political elite, the Kremlin is engaged in a highly dangerous game.

Masha Lipman, editor of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Pro et Contra journal, writes a monthly column for The Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8329-2005Mar28.html

2049
Politics & Religion / That Every Man be Armed
« on: March 25, 2005, 05:16:01 PM »
Stephen Hallbrook's book That Every Man Be Armed, the Evolution of a Constitutional Right does the best job I've seen of comprehensively examining the genesis of the second amendment. Many of the quotes cited above are examined in context. Well worth a read, IMO.

2050
Politics & Religion / 00 on the High Seas
« on: March 20, 2005, 06:43:40 AM »
The martial spirit in action:


"We are safe in port of Aden. It?s been 3 days repairing the damage. 30 bullets holes in deck, cabin house, dodger, and alas, newly varnished mast. Our bow shows evidence of a satisfying crunch. Our new paint job was not meant to be. Dinghy on deck was seriously wounded but in stable condition, much repatched. No wine was hurt.

This is the "official" report filed with the Yemen Coast Guard, Yemen Navy, Aden Port Control, US Coalition 5th Fleet, US Embassy and State Department? but not Carol?s mother. Unfortunately, the poor guy that shoots has to write up the paper work. The one that rams does not engender any paper-work, except sand paper work.

March 11, 2005, written by Rodney J. Nowlin, USN Retired
Pirate Attack off Yemen Coast

On Tuesday, March 8, 2005 at position 13 Degrees 28 North / 49 Degrees 07 East, in the infamous Pirate Alley of the Gulf of Aden, two sailing yachts, Madhi and Gandalf, were moving SW 30 miles off the coast of Yemen proceeding to the port of Aden from Salalah, Oman.

At about 0900 local, two outboard powered fiberglass longboats, about 20 feet long, each containing 3 men, passed off our sterns moving south at about 25 knots into the open Gulf between Yemen and Somalia. An hour later they returned, one coming quite close and looking us over carefully. The second boat passed off our bows but quite a ways away. These boats were obviously not engaged in a normal activity like fishing. At that time we were south of Al Mukalla, Yemen. The area around Al Mukalla is well documented as being a piracy, drug & people smuggling problem area and we maintained a careful watch for anything out of the ordinary.

At about 1600 we observed two different boats approaching us head on from the west with the glare of the sunset in our eyes. These were 25-30 feet long, had inboard diesel engines and higher freeboard. We immediately motored closer together. As soon as they saw us close ranks they started coming very fast directly at us. There were 4 men in each boat. They separated at about 200 yards with one boat coming down Madhi?s port side, shouting and firing into the cockpit. The other boat, firing automatic weapons came at Gandalf. There were no warning shots. Carol on Gandalf began sending Maydays on every frequency.

The first boat swung around behind Mahdi?s stern to come up and board us. At that point, I , Rod Nowlin aboard Mahdi and armed with a 12 gauge shotgun loaded with 00 buckshot, started shooting into their boat. I forced them to keep their heads down so they could not shoot at us. I am not sure I hit anyone at that point. I could see the driver of the boat crouched down behind the steering console. After firing three shots at them, their engine started to smoke and I swung around to try to shoot at the second boat ahead. At that point I saw Jay Barry on Gandalf ram the second boat amidships almost cutting it in two and turning it almost completely over. I turned back around to shoot at the boat still behind Mahdi. That was when they turned away from Mahdi and headed toward the stern of Gandalf. Gandalf was beside us about 100 feet away. The bow of the pirate boat came right up against Gandalf?s stern and two men stood up on the bow with guns to board Gandalf. That was a serious and probably fateful error on their part. I shot both of them. That boat then veered away and I shot the driver, although I am not sure of the outcome because they were farther away and I didn?t knock him down like the other two trying to board Gandalf.

Mahdi & Gandalf kept going at full speed to put as much distance between the pirates and us as possible. As soon as we were out of rifle range, we looked back and both attack boats were drifting and seemed to be disabled.

A merchant ship nearby finally answered our Mayday and diverted course to position itself between the floundering pirates and the fleeing yachts. They said they would contact the authorities? by Sat phone and then sailed alongside us for 4 hours after dark to make sure we would be all right. Best speed was made to the Port of Aden 180 miles away.

If Jay on Gandalf had not had the presence of mind to veer over into one boat and ram it, the outcome of this attack would have been totally different. All the guys needed to do was stand off a ways and shoot us to pieces with automatic weapons. We were extremely lucky. We broadcast Mayday calls on VHF 16 and all HF radio frequencies, including two HF frequencies that were supplied by the US Coast Guard near Oman only a few days before. Frequencies which the Coalition Forces Warships in this area were supposed to be monitoring. There was no response. The pirates were well organized and well armed. There were at least 4 boats involved. They had set up a picket line out from the Yemen coast probably covering 75 miles out, so if you transited the area during the day they would not miss seeing you. The two attack boats appeared to have come from the south before positioning themselves ahead of us in the sunset.

There has been speculation in the past that this ongoing piracy problem off Yemen?s coast was being carried out by Somali pirates. Given the number, the types of boats involved, and the direction the supposed spotter boats were coming from, this does not appear to be the case. The men in the attack boats looked both African and Arab.

There was no evidence that this was a people smuggling operation. There were no men, women or children cowering in the boats. These were not fishing boats with nets or overhead sun protection. They appeared to be purpose-built boats, 25-30 feet long, with wooden splines or poles fashioned above the gunwales to which a plastic tarp or shield was hung chest high for the men to hide behind after shooting. The problem is getting worse and the pirate attacks are getting deadly. One could only expect that the Yemen Government will take more direct action At very least, allow yachts to group in Salalah, Oman and at some point along the NW Yemen coast request an escort until Aden or the Straits.

Rodney J. Nowlin, USN Retire
March 11, 2005

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