Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Forgive my ego/vanity, but I would point out I have been questioning here the Chinese miracle for a number of years now-- including for shoddy, dishonest bookkeeping and bubble dynamics.

Marc

Very good post from GM-- in a similar vein to what I just posted in the American Creed thread, good posts from Doug too.

I should mention that the posts just now under Maija's name are from me, Marc

STRATFOR
---------------------------
October 7, 2011


WEIGHING AN EXTENDED U.S. PRESENCE IN IRAQI KURDISTAN

Kurdish officials in northern Iraq on Wednesday raised the possibility of some 1,500
U.S. troops remaining stationed at the airport in the contested city of Kirkuk past
January 2012, the deadline for all American military forces to withdraw from the
country under the current U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement.

"What is at stake for Washington is not the fate of Iraqi Kurds, but the most
powerful means of leverage the United States has left in Iraq: its military
presence."

Washington has been pushing for an agreement that would keep U.S. troops in Iraq
past the deadline as a way to counter Iran, and some Iraqi factions would also like
to see an extended U.S. presence for their own reasons -- especially the Kurds, who
see the prospect of U.S. troops in northern Iraq as a way to ensure Kurdish
autonomy. However, other Iraqi factions, many of which are influenced by Iran, have
thus far been successful in preventing any such accord from being struck. Given the
fractious nature of Iraqi politics and the logistical requirements for removing
forces by the deadline, the longer these factions delay an extension, the more
difficult it becomes to enact one.

What is at stake for Washington is not the fate of Iraqi Kurds, but the most
powerful means of leverage the United States has left in Iraq: its military
presence. The U.S. State Department plans to maintain the largest embassy in the
world in Baghdad and the Iraqi government will continue to accept American aid and
military hardware (as well as the contractors necessary to maintain it). But neither
the diplomatic presence nor U.S. aid and equipment can provide the deterrent to Iran
that military forces stationed in the country could, and the removal of troops will
inevitably erode U.S. influence, along with situational awareness and
intelligence-gathering capabilities. In addition, the advisory and assistance
support the U.S. military has provided its Iraqi counterpart in areas of planning,
logistics, intelligence and air sovereignty (among others) will be denied, meaning
that Iraqi security forces will be somewhat less capable, particularly in the near
term.

By invading in 2003, the United States destroyed the Iranian-Iraqi balance of power
that had defined American foreign policy in the region since the fall of the Shah in
1979, and the Iraq of today is not capable of containing and counterbalancing Iran.
This is not a problem that can be solved by military force, or at least by the
military force the United States is willing to keep committed to the region. Because
of this, a political accommodation and understanding with Iran is necessary. The
question is about the terms of that accommodation and understanding, and at the
moment the U.S. negotiating position is weak. Some sort of residual American
military presence in Iraq is ultimately intended to buy time for the American
negotiating position to improve while attempting to provide allies and partners in
the region like Saudi Arabia enough reason to stay with Washington instead of
reaching an independent accommodation with Iran on Iranian terms.

This is the context in which any residual American military presence in Iraq must be
understood. That presence -- however it is officially described -- could be
composed, equipped and positioned to serve as a credible conventional blocking force
in coordination with U.S. forces stationed in Kuwait (though this looks increasingly
unlikely). Alternately, the remaining U.S. forces could take the shape of a training
mission with very limited applicability to the larger strategic problem
(particularly if it is limited to 1,500 troops in Kirkuk). Either way, it will be
vulnerable to attack by Iranian proxies while failing to address the real means of
Iranian power in the region -- its extensive network of covert operatives that are
able to move quite freely across the Persian Gulf region.

The United States wants to prevent Tehran from filling the power vacuum that would
be left in Iraq after the withdrawal until other means of leverage can be brought to
bear against Iran -- ideally when most U.S. and allied forces have also withdrawn
from Afghanistan and the global economy is not being held hostage to skirmishes in
the Strait of Hormuz. A residual military presence can be can be composed in ways
that make it  better- or worse-suited to deal with this, but it cannot solve the
underlying problem of Iranian power in the region.