https://1drv.ms/b/s!AtUhx4XAwKlQg1hwX1ByFxsikWB4?e=FtGZkdFriend of Crafty's here. Honored to be let in. If the topic of Bitcoin interests you, I wrote a paper covering the dynamics and cycle history (see link above).
Mostly macro and technical analysis. If you look at page 18 you'll see a break from the fibbionaci channel. This indicates a break from the pattern of previous patterns. I suspect that it has to do with the Bitcoin ETF that dropped in December. This indicates a potential supercycle, left translated cycle, or something else. As such, I've shifted my strategy to utilize realtime indicators such as RSI data, Stock to flow models, simple moving averages, interest rate vs risk on asset correlations, liquidity cycle/bitcoin cycle overlays, whale metrics, and google trend data.
I saw what's happening as a potential outcome. So I built in adaptability into my investment strategy (see page 22: offsetting blackswans/risk management). My personal investment strategy is based around leveraging liquidity drips, and investing in layer 2 and 3 networks built on layer 1 networks with high survivability (like Hbar, has many partners in the defense industry like Boeing as well as google and others-they will rely on this network for infastructure and won't let it die).
I started with 10ishk$ in december, I have approximately 43k now (not cashed out). So it's been working out fairly well.
In regards to bitcoin: The universe consists of networks and cycles at a macro level, and energy and frequency at a micro level. This cycles expand and contract like they are breathing, and their expansion and contractions effect other networks and the cycles within them, depending on how closely they are correlated. This applies across domains. According to Strauss–Howe generational theory, every 100ish years we experience major shifts in the established systems, and chaos occurs (a reorganization of these networks). These are "
phasal shifts". In phasal shifts, asymmetric strategic advantages lie in the hands of smaller players who are the most adaptable (due to rapidly changing environment) and able to identify the highest points of leverage for maximal ROI.
While some see chaos as a threat to established systems, or something to be viewed with fear,
phasal shifts offer
opportunities to smaller players, if they can identify points of leverage. In economics we are seeing a phasal shift from traditional sources of power (banking, ect.) to decentralized digital networks (de-fi, bitcoin). The highest points of leverage for smaller players are the emergent networks that have highest levels of survivability (this offsets risk) and growth potential (this is the level of leverage). The optimal strategy for a smaller player (someone who's not a gazillionaire like Elon musk or Jeff Bezos), is to identify the highest points of leverage in these emergent networks and hop on the ride.
Cross domain application: This applies to all things. In Judo, for example the highest point of leverage for a smaller judoka is to create chaos in the enviornment (pull opponent off balance), then leverage it with their own weight and body mechanics. In relationships: A smaller player may not be able to pick up the phone and call Elon Musk or Bill Gates, but do you know what he can do? Wait for a transitional environment (emergence of AI for example), then identify, make partnerships/friendships with the future Elon Musks of that domain.
"If you know the way broadly you will see it in everything"
-Miyamoto Musashi
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