Fire Hydrant of Freedom

YA: Not sure why, but sometimes I don't see the content of your posts.

No one else has had this problem ...

TechDev thinks we should go up soon.

He mentions "expanding criminal and civil forfeiture".

I am of the strong opinion that both of these are quite terrible and were they to be properly considered, unconstitutional.

The actual strategies to be used have not yet been disclosed, the above link was just someone's ideas of the possibilities. More importantly, the EU is going for the CBDC, ideally by Oct 2025, while the US goes for BTC and bans CBDC. see Christine Largard at 1:17 mark. https://x.com/efenigson/status/1898382481184993711

A few years ago, people who held BTC were called drug dealers and criminals. Today the WH had its first BTC/Crupto conference. Michael Saylor (genius) presented this to the WH (read it slow and twice). https://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategy

The Lummis bill has bipartisan support. Lets see. Its a way for the US to maintain dominance and pay off trillions in deficits.

BTC reserve is here. the market did not like it, because they are not buying more. Its still a big thing, they wont be selling anything. Other countries will also set up similar. We have to wait for the Lummis bill.

Looks like I was right, BTC at 91.3K 

BREAKING NEWS

They were using a Ledger hardware wallet, perhaps the worst in the business.

YA:  Would this be like the idea underlying the book Softwar that you recommended here sometime ago?

Not sure which post you are referring to...but enjoy the below. The left is BTC and right is altcoins.

The institutions are coming...Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Fund also bought 436 Million $ worth of ETF's.

TechDev's work below as well as Martin Armstrong's Socrates arrays (different technique), have suggested a first peak in the end of Feb/March 2025 for many months now.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/01/fact-sheet-executive-order-to-establish-united-states-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/

BTC stockpile is coming together with a purchase of BTC via legislation.

Important read on the BSR

https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/can-trump-order-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

Please enjoy some Christmas Hopium. Note the Q1 2025 quadrant, we are now at the 100K line, but also look at the 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 lines too. This is the best time of the season, when we start to cross the line (ring) sharply and this could happen since Trump is very pro BTC. If it goes up, I will sell some. Based on current best estimates, we will have the first peak by Feb-March. Lets see. Blue dots are the halvings and the black dots are the tops.

I have posted earlier, things are not going well for Bangladesh. Likely under US pressure, with the help of Pak ISI they ousted the moderate Sheikh Hasina, who is now sheltering in India. The fight with the US was about US bases/access in St.Martins island. Now it seems that the Myanmar rebels have taken over some of the southernmost parts (Teknaf) of Bangladesh.

If the BSR gets approved, there is no falling back for BTC, its up only!. I would expect the mythical Omega (green candle), i.e. 100 K candle on the charts. The article is mixing up BSR and a falling BTC dominance that can be associated with an an ALT rally. As a side note, Eric Trump recently gave a BTC presentation in Abu Dhabi, he said he strongly believed that BTC is going to a Million. I think early in the Trump presidency, Trump will likely use an executive order to protect the 200 K BTC pile that the US possesses. To buy more BTC, the Lummis bill for the BSR must be passed and she is very optimistic since Trumps Treasury Secretary is supportive.

This is huge, the US Treasury calling BTC as digital gold, see slide 108 in pdf. I have discussed the use of Tether as a demand source for US Treasuries, and the tokenization of US Treasuries is also coming.

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/CombinedChargesforArchivesQ42024.pdf

BTC is larger than Facebook, Silver. Soon it overtakes Google, the race is to become the top dog and beat Gold. If Trump creates the SBR, this could happen quickly.

In the meantime, the Indian Rupee.

Friendly reminder

Yes, its a taxable event. The ideal holding period is 10 + years, or decades. However, at some point one must take profits, if the intent is to retire or use the gains. All I am saying is that for those who plan to take profits next year, have a plan and dont make any emotional moves. This thinking is based on the current 4 year cycles where BTC peaks and then goes into a bear market, followed by 3 up years (and we are coming to the 3rd up year in 2025). The 4 year model of supply shock is expected to break down, since it was based on a shrinking of the mining reward every 4 years, the current mining reward is only 450 BTC/day, a small amount, so its effect will be negligible going forward and from the next cycle (2028), when it shrinks to 225/day. The ETF's on somedays are buying 5000 BTC/day, so I think the reward no longer plays a big role.

All of this could change, if Trump establishes the Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) which he has promised and his Treasury secretary supports. Several states such as TX, PA have their own bills cooking to establish the strategic reserve. If the SBR is established, then the above 4 yr cycle will not hold, and BTC goes on a pathway to a Million over the next couple of years or less. Which is why I also said, dont sell everything.

P.S. The above is my current thinking, but I do not have a crystal ball, so please do your own research 

What we should be watching


Senate bill S.4912 re: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (aka path to a million$)
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text

90 K tonight would be fine.