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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: December 02, 2024, 04:09:38 AM »
In the meantime, the Indian Rupee.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: December 01, 2024, 07:10:06 PM »
Trump is just bloviating against China, Trump being Trump. As I said a while ago, there is no BRICS currency to replace the $ in the near future. They have talked about having a means to trade amongst themselves using their own currency and settling any balances in gold.
Putin has said, all this is happening because the US weaponized the $ against Russia by kicking them out of SWIFT. As a result China created its own system and trading in local currencies started. I expect in 2025, Trump will lift the currency sanctions against Russia because it hurts the reputation of the US $.
The US will create a BTC strategic reserve, think of it as digital gold, just like we have gold and oil as strategic reserves. BTC might save the $. Already stablecoins such as tether are becoming huge buyers of treasuries, in effect replacing the lack of demand from China. BTC will become the store of value currency like gold, while $ will remain the preferred currency for payments. Just like gold used to back the $, BTC could end up backing the $. Thats the purpose of the BTC strat.reserve.
Putin has said, all this is happening because the US weaponized the $ against Russia by kicking them out of SWIFT. As a result China created its own system and trading in local currencies started. I expect in 2025, Trump will lift the currency sanctions against Russia because it hurts the reputation of the US $.
The US will create a BTC strategic reserve, think of it as digital gold, just like we have gold and oil as strategic reserves. BTC might save the $. Already stablecoins such as tether are becoming huge buyers of treasuries, in effect replacing the lack of demand from China. BTC will become the store of value currency like gold, while $ will remain the preferred currency for payments. Just like gold used to back the $, BTC could end up backing the $. Thats the purpose of the BTC strat.reserve.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: December 01, 2024, 05:18:34 AM »
Friendly reminder
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 26, 2024, 04:23:47 AM »
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 23, 2024, 05:48:04 AM »
Yes, its a taxable event. The ideal holding period is 10 + years, or decades. However, at some point one must take profits, if the intent is to retire or use the gains. All I am saying is that for those who plan to take profits next year, have a plan and dont make any emotional moves. This thinking is based on the current 4 year cycles where BTC peaks and then goes into a bear market, followed by 3 up years (and we are coming to the 3rd up year in 2025). The 4 year model of supply shock is expected to break down, since it was based on a shrinking of the mining reward every 4 years, the current mining reward is only 450 BTC/day, a small amount, so its effect will be negligible going forward and from the next cycle (2028), when it shrinks to 225/day. The ETF's on somedays are buying 5000 BTC/day, so I think the reward no longer plays a big role.
All of this could change, if Trump establishes the Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) which he has promised and his Treasury secretary supports. Several states such as TX, PA have their own bills cooking to establish the strategic reserve. If the SBR is established, then the above 4 yr cycle will not hold, and BTC goes on a pathway to a Million over the next couple of years or less. Which is why I also said, dont sell everything.
P.S. The above is my current thinking, but I do not have a crystal ball, so please do your own research
All of this could change, if Trump establishes the Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) which he has promised and his Treasury secretary supports. Several states such as TX, PA have their own bills cooking to establish the strategic reserve. If the SBR is established, then the above 4 yr cycle will not hold, and BTC goes on a pathway to a Million over the next couple of years or less. Which is why I also said, dont sell everything.
P.S. The above is my current thinking, but I do not have a crystal ball, so please do your own research
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 22, 2024, 03:54:43 AM »
Guys have a plan to exit out, if you are holding BTC.
- Plan ahead, it could get crazy, if BTC makes a parabolic move.
- If your age and circumstances allow, always keep some coins, dont sell everything. These will help fight inflation.
Keep in mind two big events that may occur.
1. Trump establishes the BTC Strategic Reserve. If so,
2. Every country will have to do that.
3. Were this to pass, you need to have some coins to benefit from the once in a life time opportunity.
- Plan ahead, it could get crazy, if BTC makes a parabolic move.
- If your age and circumstances allow, always keep some coins, dont sell everything. These will help fight inflation.
Keep in mind two big events that may occur.
1. Trump establishes the BTC Strategic Reserve. If so,
2. Every country will have to do that.
3. Were this to pass, you need to have some coins to benefit from the once in a life time opportunity.
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Politics & Religion / Senate Bill BTC Strategic Reserve
« on: November 16, 2024, 05:58:37 AM »
What we should be watching
Senate bill S.4912 re: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (aka path to a million$)
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text
Senate bill S.4912 re: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (aka path to a million$)
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text
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Politics & Religion / BTC Strategic Reserve can be established by EO
« on: November 15, 2024, 04:53:31 AM »
Trump can establish the BTC Strat Reserve by executive order.
https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/can-trump-order-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve
https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/can-trump-order-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 11, 2024, 05:30:19 PM »
90 K tonight would be fine.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 11, 2024, 05:20:30 AM »
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 11, 2024, 04:14:09 AM »
Important:
What is your goal?
Do you want to take profits this cycle, and if so, how much (USD or BTC)?
Are you planning to continue stacking during the bull, or are you HODL only?
What is your goal?
Do you want to take profits this cycle, and if so, how much (USD or BTC)?
Are you planning to continue stacking during the bull, or are you HODL only?
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 11, 2024, 04:07:03 AM »
We are now at the first rally stage. Please have your plan ready. Sorry the image is large!, so scroll to the right too.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 10, 2024, 04:23:05 AM »
The BTC strategic reserve is a huge development. This has been a big topic of discussion in the BTC community and infact the website to the BTC policy institute has crashed due to the number of people wanting to read their report. The pdf is available here, in particular read the questions/answers. https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/627aa615676bdd562bec97cd/6728fc69a46dd5394bf3e73d_BPI%20Policy%20Brief%20Digital%20Gold.pdf
The game theory is that nation states will front run the USA and this is happening. Soon BTC will be considered a new asset class and strategic reserve item like gold, silver etc. Once Trump sets up the strategic reserve in the USA, there will be a massive race by central banks world wide to do the same. However bullish you may be, you are not bullish enough.
The good thing is that the USA can print $ to purchase a hard asset like BTC, this exorbitant privilege is not available to most countries.
The game theory is that nation states will front run the USA and this is happening. Soon BTC will be considered a new asset class and strategic reserve item like gold, silver etc. Once Trump sets up the strategic reserve in the USA, there will be a massive race by central banks world wide to do the same. However bullish you may be, you are not bullish enough.
The good thing is that the USA can print $ to purchase a hard asset like BTC, this exorbitant privilege is not available to most countries.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 08, 2024, 04:33:27 AM »
Watch the ETF flows, they are accelerating
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: November 03, 2024, 06:11:44 AM »
Hopium
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Politics & Religion / BTC
« on: October 31, 2024, 04:30:42 AM »
IBIT ETF flows accelerate. MSTR reports strategy to buy 42 Bill of BTC. Things are looking good.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Decrypto: Trump backed platform to launch a stablecoin?
« on: October 30, 2024, 03:41:10 AM »World Liberty Financial, the Donald Trump-backed DeFi platform, is planning to launch its own stablecoin, Decrypt has learned. Sources familiar with the firm’s plans said that World Liberty plans to create and issue its own stablecoin, or a crypto token typically pegged to a fiat currency (like the U.S. dollar) and backed by collateral assets.
Stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC are among the most-traded cryptocurrencies, as they’re used by crypto traders to quickly enter and exit trades without worrying about volatility. They’re also critical on- and off-ramps between traditional financial markets.
But the prospect of a platform backed and promoted by Trump—who could well be elected to a second presidential term next week—carries with it added legal and ethical concerns. It also could be a massively profitable move for the World Liberty team, given how critical stablecoins are to the crypto economy.
The Trump WLF coins is a scam, its already failed. Unfortunately, when noobs get into crypto, they always start with scam coins, before moving on to BTC.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 28, 2024, 05:50:45 PM »Many cycles are lining up for both Oct 28, and the week of Oct 28 re: BTC for a meaning event. Lets see.
Looks like we hit 70 K...on oct 28
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 27, 2024, 07:19:22 AM »
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 26, 2024, 06:38:52 AM »
I have posted this before, but worth a re-listen. Why stable coins like USDT will be the new source of demand for US treasuries, in the face of declining demand from China. The corollary is that USDT will then be used to buy BTC.
https://x.com/i/status/1849918286634332625
The other important news is that Microsoft share holders are voting on Dec 10, whether MSFT should buy BTC. The outcome is irrelevant, for now every large and small corporate board will do the same. Hundreds of billions of $ are going to come into the space. If you are not familiar with this strategy, study MSTR they have done this and has been the best performing stock in the SP500. If I were a betting man, and they decide to buy BTC, MSFT will shoot up (if not it might dump a bit).
https://x.com/i/status/1849918286634332625
The other important news is that Microsoft share holders are voting on Dec 10, whether MSFT should buy BTC. The outcome is irrelevant, for now every large and small corporate board will do the same. Hundreds of billions of $ are going to come into the space. If you are not familiar with this strategy, study MSTR they have done this and has been the best performing stock in the SP500. If I were a betting man, and they decide to buy BTC, MSFT will shoot up (if not it might dump a bit).
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Politics & Religion / Re: Russia/US-- Europe
« on: October 24, 2024, 05:08:33 AM »
The list of countries (global south) queing up to join BRICS keeps increasing. Amazingly US policies brought Russia and China together and now China & India trying to improve relations with each other. US hegemony is based on the carrot and stick approach, BRICS on mutual respect. Even Turkey has applied !, more EU countries would join if allowed. Mark my words, EU countries will join sooner or later.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Russia/US-- Europe
« on: October 24, 2024, 04:47:08 AM »
We probably need a BRICS thread.
In the meantime..
In the meantime..
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 24, 2024, 04:28:03 AM »
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 24, 2024, 04:08:19 AM »
Many cycles are lining up for both Oct 28, and the week of Oct 28 re: BTC for a meaning event. Lets see.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 23, 2024, 06:07:56 PM »
Nearly every country is now trying to trade using local countries. India has agreements with 18 countries including Germany and France. This reduces the importance of the dollar. All of this, because the US froze Russian reserves.
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Politics & Religion / Brics
« on: October 22, 2024, 06:48:12 PM »
Friendly atmosphere at BRICS. Xi smiling thats rare. Putin joked to Modi in their dialog, that India-Russia relationship was so tight, that Modi did not need a translator.
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Politics & Religion / Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« on: October 22, 2024, 05:09:50 AM »
In the meantime, India launches its 4th Nuclear SSBN. This is the second one launched this year, in the meantime 2 Chinese nuclear subs have sunk due to error or malfunction.
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Politics & Religion / Khalistani Terrorist
« on: October 22, 2024, 05:05:30 AM »
This is the Khalistani terrorist, who is threatning to blow up Air-India flights and break up India that the US is supporting. It cannot be justified. Video is in Punjabi language, which is typical when they dont want the west to understand what they are saying.
https://x.com/i/status/1848591453125284175
https://x.com/i/status/1848591453125284175
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Politics & Religion / Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« on: October 21, 2024, 04:49:17 AM »
There is news out today that India-China have reached agreement on the border patrolling issues which rose after clashes in 2020 and that Modi and Xi will meet at Kazan for the Brics conf.
If India-China resolve their differences, the world geopolitics changes completely. India-Russia and China-Russia relations are already close. The USA needs to be careful in dissing India, which they seem to do repeatedly. Recent friction has been over US support to Khalistanis (Canadian Sikhs who want to break India) and holding back on jet engines for fighter aircraft, which has caused severe heart burn in India. US arrogance will end up weakening the USA.
If India-China resolve their differences, the world geopolitics changes completely. India-Russia and China-Russia relations are already close. The USA needs to be careful in dissing India, which they seem to do repeatedly. Recent friction has been over US support to Khalistanis (Canadian Sikhs who want to break India) and holding back on jet engines for fighter aircraft, which has caused severe heart burn in India. US arrogance will end up weakening the USA.
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Politics & Religion / BTC and Gold
« on: October 20, 2024, 06:03:49 PM »
Gold on the monthly leads BTC on the weekly chart.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 19, 2024, 11:18:02 AM »
Gold and BTC
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Politics & Religion / Re: Sen/VP Kommiela Kamala Harris
« on: October 19, 2024, 06:44:44 AM »
The betting markets are showing a 60:40 split in favor of Trump since a long time now. Trump is coming back.
https://polymarket.com/elections
https://polymarket.com/elections
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Politics & Religion / BNY Mellon and BTC
« on: October 19, 2024, 06:42:23 AM »
Why the recent permission for BNY Mellon to custody BTC is important
https://x.com/i/status/1847396631173615649
https://x.com/i/status/1847396631173615649
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 14, 2024, 07:33:26 AM »This analyst, whom I think highly off has analysis using various techniques, such as liquidity, a top in Jan 2025, or 1Q 2015. Interestingly, Martin Armstrong's array model using entirely different technique gives a panic cycle in Feb 2025 too.
This post from Aug 2024 seems about right so far..BTC at 66K
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Politics & Religion / Re: Russia
« on: October 14, 2024, 07:18:31 AM »
Here's Russia's proposal on the BRICS currency. It does not exist as I indicated a while ago. Now if they were wise enough to adopt BTC..as the global reserve asset.
https://pdfupload.io/docs/e1231f66
https://pdfupload.io/docs/e1231f66
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Politics & Religion / Re: Russia
« on: October 13, 2024, 08:19:43 AM »
Just thought I should comment the India-Russian relations in light of US sanctions.
1. India is buying a lot of Russian oil, what it does not use, it sells back to Europe. This is great because the cheap oil which built the German economy is now moving to India. This will lead to the decline of Europe, for nothing beats cheap energy.
2. The US has also restricted India and rest of world from trading with Russia, i.e. USD cannot be paid to Russia via the SWIFT network. This has forced countries such as India to trade with Russia in local currencies, i.e. India pays for the oil in rupees. This is happening with multiple countries which trade with Russia for commodities. So a lot of rupees have accumulated in Russia and Russia did not know what to do with the accumulating Rupees. In some cases, the residual balance is paid back in Gold. Well now Russia is investing Rs in India, for machinery etc. Latest is the deal to make ice-breakers in India, this is in advance of the developing Northern/Arctic trade route which will shorten the shipping times for trade with Asia and will also be cheaper. In essence, the economy is shifting from Europe to the east. Dedollarization is happening, at the very least nations are shaking off the iron grip of Uncle Sam that payments must be in $.
3. This ice-breaker deal is also important for it gives India a foothold into the arctic trade route and not just to China.
The US has made many self goals..kicking Russia out of SWIFT was the biggest error.
1. India is buying a lot of Russian oil, what it does not use, it sells back to Europe. This is great because the cheap oil which built the German economy is now moving to India. This will lead to the decline of Europe, for nothing beats cheap energy.
2. The US has also restricted India and rest of world from trading with Russia, i.e. USD cannot be paid to Russia via the SWIFT network. This has forced countries such as India to trade with Russia in local currencies, i.e. India pays for the oil in rupees. This is happening with multiple countries which trade with Russia for commodities. So a lot of rupees have accumulated in Russia and Russia did not know what to do with the accumulating Rupees. In some cases, the residual balance is paid back in Gold. Well now Russia is investing Rs in India, for machinery etc. Latest is the deal to make ice-breakers in India, this is in advance of the developing Northern/Arctic trade route which will shorten the shipping times for trade with Asia and will also be cheaper. In essence, the economy is shifting from Europe to the east. Dedollarization is happening, at the very least nations are shaking off the iron grip of Uncle Sam that payments must be in $.
3. This ice-breaker deal is also important for it gives India a foothold into the arctic trade route and not just to China.
The US has made many self goals..kicking Russia out of SWIFT was the biggest error.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 08, 2024, 05:45:18 AM »
Waiting for this...remember Oct and feb/March are the big turning points
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 06, 2024, 05:56:00 PM »
Two BTC charts, slightly different tops
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: October 05, 2024, 02:54:25 PM »42
Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 27, 2024, 03:49:34 AM »This analyst, whom I think highly off has analysis using various techniques, such as liquidity, a top in Jan 2025, or 1Q 2015. Interestingly, Martin Armstrong's array model using entirely different technique gives a panic cycle in Feb 2025 too.
So far things moving per plan. Oct 2024 and Feb-March 2025 are the dates t watch.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 20, 2024, 05:46:28 PM »
Two things happened today, both are huge events. 1.BNY Mellon bank is now allowed to custody BTC and offer services. Its one of the oldest and largest banks. soon other banks will follow suit. That means normies can now hold BTC in their bank accts. This will bring thousands of new buyers. 2. ETF options on BTC are now allowed. This also brings huge new money and options provide yield, which has not been possible so far. Pl. see attached write up.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 18, 2024, 04:54:46 PM »
It does not matter who wins.
Trump is good because he will make BTC a reserve asset, that's huge. Kamla is also good, because she will spend like crazy. There are too many democrats who support BTC, its really a bipartisan issue, so I am not concerned. There are two small countries that are officially stacking BTC, El Salvador and Bhutan. There are likely others, who have not disclosed their positions. We have Black Rock's Larry Fink strongly supporting BTC, see their report linked above. The future is really bright.
Trump is good because he will make BTC a reserve asset, that's huge. Kamla is also good, because she will spend like crazy. There are too many democrats who support BTC, its really a bipartisan issue, so I am not concerned. There are two small countries that are officially stacking BTC, El Salvador and Bhutan. There are likely others, who have not disclosed their positions. We have Black Rock's Larry Fink strongly supporting BTC, see their report linked above. The future is really bright.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 18, 2024, 05:17:57 AM »
Here's the BlackRock report https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/literature/whitepaper/bitcoin-a-unique-diversifier.pdf
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 18, 2024, 04:58:18 AM »
From Blackrock.When one asks why is BTC going down in a crisis situation. Look at the 60 day behaviour. BTC is the only asset that trades 24 hrsx 7 days, so when there is a crisis, its the first thing sold to gain liquidity.
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Politics & Religion / Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« on: September 14, 2024, 07:55:26 AM »
This happened recently. China withdraws from 4 areas on the India-China border so far (over the last 2 years). So the question is why is China doing this ?, this would improve relations with India. The logical answer is they dont want strained relations with India, when tensions increase elsewhere. Question is where is elsewhere ? Taiwan ? or is this in anticipation of NATO getting involved in Ukr-Russia war. Something that likely will worry the US a great deal is what happens if India-China resolve their border issues. Russia already has close relations with both China and India. This could change the trade relationships around the world. The global south is already strongly behind India.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 13, 2024, 06:20:44 AM »
Here's a report on BTC adoption https://river.com/learn/files/business-bitcoin-report-2024.pdf
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 10, 2024, 04:07:46 AM »
In hind sight the arrays I posted were off by a couple of days. Typically these identify turning points and can be off by one unit, i.e. a daily can be off by 1 day. In this case, they signified the end of the downward phase. As was posted a while ago, the monthly arrays show Oct 2024 and March 2025 as the next major turning points. I will add that I think, BTC starts rising in Oct and by Feb-March peaks (atleast the first peak). Thats my reading of the tea leaves.
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Politics & Religion / Re: Money/inflation, the Fed, Banking, Monetary Policy, Dollar, BTC, crypto, Gold
« on: September 09, 2024, 05:03:39 PM »
I am sensing conflict between the hypothesis of BTC as a haven from a disintegrating financial system and what we are seeing in BTC's price. Or is this me once again being a near perfect contrary indicator haha? and that what we are seeing is squeezing out the greed mo-mo money from the last surge and laying the foundation for the next leg up?
Answer: Perfect Contra Indicator
