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Messages - xtremekali

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1
Politics & Religion / Re: WW3
« on: December 15, 2006, 09:34:50 AM »
Is it any surprise that James Baker wants to sell our only real Allies in the Middle East (Israel) down the river.  Not only this but we should invite Iran and Syria to the table and ask for their input on Iraq.  The Bush admin has finally lost its mind.

When did the American people become sheep!  All we have done is shown Islamic Radicals that if they hold out long enough that America no longer has the stomach for war and is weak.  If times get hard we will run and hide.

Someone once asked how do you win a political correct war?  Answer, you don't.  WWII will be the last war we win unless the politicians stop worrying about being re-elected and let generals fight wars. 

Myke

2
Politics & Religion / Lebanon
« on: August 04, 2006, 02:55:58 PM »
rogt,

I have to admit I for one do not understand your support of Hamas and Hezbollah.  Or maybe you have a personel dislike for the State of Israel.

Do you believe Israel has the right to defend itself? or is it you dislike the U.S.'s support of Israel.  If this is the case then you need to put the blame on the Kennedy admin.  It was he who set the policy that the U.S. what defend Israel since in his view Israel was seen as the only true "friend" in the region.

As for Iran's tolerance of Jew's.  What do you think would happen if the Terrorist President of Iran start slaughtering these Jew's.  Israel would not stand for it.  Then the S would hit the fan.

I my have missed it and if so I apoligize but could you flesh out your arguement against what Israel is doing and please do so without the leftist propaganda.

I have to admit I am old school when it comes to middle eastern fanatics.  Having been involed in a war against Hamas and Hezbollah as well as their forefathers.

I must have been asleep for some time who ever came up with the idea that terrorist are political parts.  Most recently the IRA, Arafat and now H and H.  

Sorry for the rambling.  Just want to understand your position.

Myke Willis

3
Politics & Religion / Geo Political matters
« on: August 02, 2006, 01:24:10 PM »
Daily News & Analysis
 
Friday, July 21, 2006 8:36:00 PM  
 
Permission to reprint or copy this article or photo must be obtained from DNA.
 
Somali Islamists declare jihad against Ethiopia
 
MOGADISHU: The leader of Somalia's Islamic courts union on Friday declared a "holy war" against neighbouring Ethiopia, whose troops have moved into the country to protect its weak transitional government.

"The Somali people have to fight against Ethiopia, this is a holy war in which we are defending our country," Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys said on local radio, speaking from his native Galgudud region in central Somalia.

"The Ethiopians have invaded our country and we must force them out of the country and this will be a holy war of Jihad."

Aweys' Islamists, who have taken control the capital Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia, have demanded the immediate withdrawal of Ethiopians who according to eyewitnesses sent more military vehicles into Baidoa, the seat of the transitional government, overnight.

In Baidoa, about 250 kilometers (155 miles) northwest of Mogadishu, residents said at least nine more large Ethiopian military vehicles carrying supplies, but no troops, moved into the town early on Friday.

These followed an initial convoy of more than 100 trucks with several hundred Ethiopian soldiers that witnesses said rolled into Baidoa and surrounding areas Thursday, after Islamist militia advanced on a nearby town.

Ethiopia has said it will defend the transitional government from any attack by the Islamists, who it and the US accuse of harboring extremists, including Al-Qaeda members wanted for attacks in east Africa.

Somalia has been wracked by lawlessness since the 1991 ouster of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre, which plunged the nation of about 10 million people into anarchic bloodletting.

COPYRIGHT? 2006 DILIGENT MEDIA CORPORATION LTD. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

4
Politics & Religion / Geo Political matters
« on: August 02, 2006, 01:19:55 PM »
Back to Story - Help
Somali gov't struggles with resignations By MOHAMED OLAD HASSAN, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 55 minutes ago
 


Somali leaders struggled to regroup Wednesday after a week in which 29 ministers quit the government, with the defectors urging the virtually powerless administration to reconcile with Islamic militants who have seized the capital.

Eleven ministers stepped down Tuesday and Wednesday, adding to the 18 who resigned late last week.

For the time being, Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi's government is secure, because he has the support of more than half the 42 remaining ministers. Of those who resigned only 11 were full ministers; the rest were deputy ministers.

Yet his already weak government ? isolated by the success of the hard-line Supreme Islamic Courts Union ? has been further incapacitated by the resignations. In previous months, five other ministers quit or were fired, though for reasons unrelated to the current crisis.

"The prime minister has failed to talk to the Islamic Union," said Hasaan Abshir Farah, who quit late Tuesday.

The group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, said in a radio broadcast that the former ministers were welcome in his group.

Others also urged the government to at least form contacts with the Islamic group, whose militia seized most of southern Somalia including the capital, Mogadishu. The U.N.-installed transitional government is located in Baidoa, one of the only places in the south not in the Islamic group's control.

In Mogadishu, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Somalia, Eric Larouche, told journalists that the Somali capital's security had improved, but "there can be no full security unless there is dialogue between all sides in Mogadishu."

Larouche spoke after he and nine other U.N. officials met with top officials of the Islamic group. He said the United Nations wanted to help people displaced by months of fighting in Mogadishu, including providing tents for children to study under when school starts in September.

Abdirahman Janaqaw, the deputy leader of the Islamic courts' executive council, said the U.N. is welcome to reopen its offices in Mogadishu but did not say whether any agreement had been reached.

Somalia's government was formed two years ago with the support of the United Nations to help the Horn of Africa nation emerge from more than a decade of anarchy, but it has no power outside Baidoa, 150 miles from Mogadishu.

Infighting, including the wave of recent resignations, has further weakened the government.

On Wednesday, President Abdullahi Yusuf said a delegation was heading to Khartoum, Sudan, for peace talks with the militants. But the prime minister said the Arab League mediators had postponed the talks, and it was unclear whether the militants planned to show up.

"I don't know why this team is going to Khartoum or who they would represent," Gedi said.

The government has watched helplessly in recent months as Islamic militants seized the capital and much of southern Somalia, imposing strict religious courts and raising fears of an emerging Taliban-style regime. The United States accuses the group of harboring al-Qaida leaders responsible for deadly bombings at the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

On Tuesday, Yusuf told Baidoa residents they have a week to give up their weapons, after which "every single gun" will be seized by force. Somalia's government has no military, but relies on a militia loyal to Yusuf for security.

He did not say why his government had decided on the measure now, but two lawmakers have been shot in Baidoa over the past week, one of them killed.

Foreign ministers from eastern Africa met in Nairobi, Kenya, on Tuesday to discuss the deteriorating situation in Somalia. The coalition of nations, known as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development urged countries in the region to obey a U.N. arms embargo imposed in 1992. All sides in the Somali conflict have violated it.

___

Associated Press writers Salad Duhul and Mohamed Sheikh Nor in Mogadishu, and Elizabeth A. Kennedy in Nairobi, Kenya, contributed to this report.

5
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 31, 2006, 03:30:00 PM »
Back to Story - Help
Raise readiness, Assad tells Syrian Army By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
 12 minutes ago
 


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told the Syrian military on Monday to raise its readiness, pledging not to abandon support for Lebanese resistance against Israel.

In an annual address on the anniversary of the foundation of the Syria Arab Army, Assad called on the military to "work on more preparedness and raise readiness of all units.

"We are facing international circumstances and regional challenges that require caution, alertness, readiness and preparedness," Assad said in the written address.

Diplomats in Damascus say the Syrian army has been on alert since the Israeli onslaught on Lebanon began on July 12 after Hizbollah fighters captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border operation.

Assad said Israel's war on Lebanon was an attempt by Israel to settle scores with Hizbollah, whose war of attrition forced Israel to pull out of southern Lebanon in 2000 after a 22-year occupation.

"The barbaric war of annihilation the Israeli aggression is waging on our people in Lebanon and Palestine is increasing in ferocity," the 40-year-old president said.

"All these threats by the powers supporting the aggression will not stop us from the liberation march and from supporting the resistance."

Over the last three weeks Israel has raided targets just inside the Lebanese side of the border with Syria, but it has not attacked Syria proper since 2003, when it raided installations belonging to a pro-Syrian Palestinian group near Damascus.

The Israeli army, which has forces in the occupied Golan Heights, 35 km (22 miles) from Damascus, has repeatedly said it has no intention of attacking Syria.

On Monday, an Israeli official said a Syrian-made bomb was detonated next to an Israeli army patrol in the Golan Heights, causing no casualties.

Israel's Channel Two television quoted military sources as saying the blast in the Golan, which Israel occupied in 1967, was believed to be an act of solidarity with Hizbollah.

Syrian officials have occasionally said they could consider activating the Golan front, which has been quiet since a 1974 ceasefire with Israel.

6
Politics & Religion / Geo Political matters
« on: July 31, 2006, 07:49:31 AM »
China Freezes N. Korean Accounts

 
A case of North Korea's counterfeit U.S. bills at a bank in Seoul. (AP/Lee Jin-man)
July 26, 2006
Prepared by:  Esther Pan


Following a U.S.-led crackdown on North Korea?s money laundering, the Bank of China has frozen millions of dollars of North Korean assets (FT) held in its Macau branch. The newly revealed move is surprising, since China had been reluctant to support U.S. and Japanese efforts (McClatchy) to impose UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea after Pyongyang?s July 4 missile tests.

The U.S. efforts have focused on Macau, where the Banco Delta Asia was accused by Washington of laundering counterfeit dollars for North Korea and blacklisted in September 2005 (CNN).  

North Korea is reported to have perfected a highly sophisticated counterfeit $100 bill, known as the ?supernote,? which is nearly impossible to tell from its legitimate counterpart (NYT Magazine). In addition to U.S. banknotes, Washington says Pyongyang also peddles counterfeit cigarettes and pharmaceuticals and runs an international drug trafficking operation, all of which bring in between $500 million and $1 billion per year in hard currency?money that goes straight to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. North Korea?s illegal financial activities are detailed in this Congressional Research Service report (PDF).

The sanctions are causing a bleak picture for Pyongyang on the money front. Japan is considering cutting cash remittances (CNSNews.com) to North Korea from ethnic Koreans in Japan, a move that follows Tokyo?s leadership in pushing through UN Security Council resolution 1695 condemning the July 4 missile tests. Japan?s Yomiuri Shimbun calls for international unity on sanctions, saying the measures must have enough bite to prevent Pyongyang from launching further missile tests. But such unity may be difficult to muster. South Korea has refused to condemn the missile tests, instead criticizing Japan and the United States for ?overreacting? (Korea Times). Seoul has been diverging from U.S. interests on North Korea for a while; its attempts to take a more assertive regional role are explained in this Backgrounder. South Korea?s historically combative relationship with Japan has complicated attempts to confront the North.

Nuclear nonproliferation expert Paul Kerr writes in Arms Control Today that the United States, for its part, is extending sanctions to include international firms that do business with or support North Korea. This has led foreign banks and firms to limit their involvement with the Pyongyang regime even further; after the U.S. action against Banco Delta Asia in September 2005, there was a run on the bank as investors rushed to reclaim their deposits.

Pyongyang, reportedly seriously hurting from the U.S. measures, has said it will not return to six-party talks until the financial restrictions are lifted. James Hackett writes in the Washington Times that North Korea?s recent missile tests show U.S. pressure on the regime is working, and calls for that pressure to continue until the regime changes or collapses. But others say the pressure is having the opposite effect, and pushing North Korea to increasingly risky behavior. As this New York Times analysis points out, every time Kim Jong-Il feels his demands are not getting enough attention, he provokes a crisis.

7
Politics & Religion / Lebanon
« on: July 31, 2006, 07:47:42 AM »
Daily Analysis
Crisis Sparks Fears of Wider War

 
The punishing Israeli offensive continues. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)
Updated: July 27, 2006
Prepared by:  CFR.org Staff


After Israel suffers its bloodiest day since launching an offensive against Lebanon two weeks ago, the country's security cabinet decides not to expand its mission in Lebanon (Haaretz). The government does, however, call up thousands of reserve troops in preparation for a wider war (WashPost). The conflict could well spill into other regions; Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number two leader, called July 27 for Muslims around the world to join in the fight against Israel (Guardian).

Talks in Rome between U.S., European, and Arab foreign ministers, joined by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, failed to find a formula for a ceasefire (MSNBC) between Israel and the Lebanon-based militia of Hezbollah. But a broad consensus emerged that a strong international peacekeeping force has to be part of the longer-term solution (al-Jazeera), and most argued over American objections that Syria and Iran had to be part of the discussion. CFR President Richard N. Haass tells cfr.org's Bernard Gwertzman in this interview that the United States should open talks with Syria and Iran, calling Washington's reluctance to deal with the two countries a major impediment to achieving U.S. objectives in the Middle East. This Washington Post analysis says the wide gap between the United States and Europe over how to deal with the ongoing crisis is yet another setback to President Bush?s foreign policy in a second term full of missteps and disappointments.

In Israel on Tuesday, Rice won conditional support from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for the idea of a foreign peacekeeping force (LAT), possibly led by NATO, on the southern Lebanese border. But officials in Israel, and American officials in unattributed comments, underscored Washington's support (CSMonitor) for the Israeli aim of degrading Hezbollah militarily, even if there are disagreements on methods. Middle East expert Martin Indyk writes in the Financial Times that the United States should push for a UN-sanctioned ceasefire that forces Hezbollah to recognize the authority of the Lebanese government. But external forces have had a mixed history in the region. This Backgrounder examines the legacy of multinational intervention in the Middle East.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni tells Newsweek the military offensive is focused on weakening Hezbollah, and says Israel does not want a wider regional war. But the ferocity of the Israeli attack on Lebanon, which has driven more than 500,000 people from their homes and killed more than 400 civilians so far, is increasing support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and across the Middle East (CS Monitor).

Lebanese Foreign Minister Fouad Siniora has been desperately trying to get a ceasefire for his battered country. But his government is too weak to negotiate one on its own; the reasons behind that are examined in this Backgrounder. Lebanon's Daily Star points to increasing carnage in Iraq, as well as the continuing battering of Lebanon by Israel, as signs that George W. Bush's vision of democracy in the Middle East is being "engulfed in the flames of the current shortsighted American foreign policy." The Weekly Standard says Bush is just being consistent in his policy of support for Israel, but Judith Kipper writes in Newsday that Washington should use its clout to push not just for a resolution, but a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As many look to Iran and Syria?both of which are playing strong roles in the crisis?to help contain the violence, those two countries are facing problems of their own. TIME says many Iranians are angry at Hezbollah, rejecting the militia's attempts to turn the crisis into a regional conflict, and worrying that the violence is threatening Tehran's status in the world.

8
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 31, 2006, 07:42:47 AM »
From the Weekly Standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weak Horses
Most liberals (and the odd conservative) don't want to fight--Bush does.
by William Kristol
07/31/2006, Volume 011, Issue 43



On Tuesday, July 18, in Tehran, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke to his countrymen. He reminded them of the connection between Israel and the liberal West: "The final point of liberal civilization is the false and corrupt state that has occupied Jerusalem. That is the bottom line. That is what all those who talk about liberalism and support it have in common." He went on to explain that when the Muslim world erupts, "its waves will not be limited to this region." That same day, Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, issued a warning to the Zionists who had intruded into the Muslim Middle East: "Today, the land of Palestine is painted red with your contemptible blood. . . . No place in Israel will be safe."

Meanwhile, on that same summer day, the Washington Post appeared as usual on the doorsteps of most residents of Washington, D.C., the capital of the liberal civilization Ahmadinejad so dislikes. Its editorial page featured three of its distinguished columnists.

Two were liberals. One, E.J. Dionne, was worried--very, very worried. He saw only "disaster" and "calamity" ahead in the Middle East, no silver lining to the "frightening" developments taking place. He judged that "alarmism is the highest form of realism in this case"--and called for "at least a brief cease-fire." The other, Richard Cohen, was less alarmed, more philosophical. Cohen concurred in part with Ahmadinejad, judging that "Israel itself is a mistake." He dissented in part from Ahmadinejad because Cohen allowed that Israel is, after all, "an honest mistake, a well-intentioned mistake, a mistake for which no one is culpable." So Israel should not be destroyed. But neither should Israel, when it is attacked, go on the offensive. It should "hunker down."

The other regular columnist was a conservative, George F. Will. Will felt it important to remind his readers of the conservative truth of "the limits of power to subdue an unruly world." He mocked the possibility of military action against Syria or Iran. In passing, he cast an ironic eye--perhaps a disapproving one--on the fact that, while Israel has patiently borne the "torment" of terrorism "for decades," the United States "responded to two hours of terrorism one September morning by toppling two regimes halfway around the world with wars that show no signs of ending." (If the 9/11 attacks had lasted a little longer, would one's fine sense of proportion be less disturbed by the vigor of the American response?) In any case, Will concluded, things could get worse.

That's a lot of "weak horses," to borrow an Osama bin Laden formulation, for one op-ed page. Fortunately, there are at least a few strong horses in the nation's capital as well. One was to be found on the Post's own editorial page, right across from Dionne and Cohen and Will. The clear-eyed liberalism of the Post's own editorial, "A War With Extremists," was bracing, as the editors argued that "this Middle East conflict should end with the defeat of its instigators," Hamas and Hezbollah, and warned against accepting a premature cease-fire or any result other than a "decisive defeat" for the terrorists and their state backers in Damascus and Tehran.

And on the news pages were reports of a couple more strong horses--George W. Bush and Tony Blair. Bush and Blair were, famously, caught on an open mike at the G-8 summit in St. Petersburg. Blair demonstrated a shrewd understanding of what was at stake for Syria's dictator, Bashar Assad: "He thinks if Lebanon turns out fine, if we get a solution in Israel and Palestine, Iraq goes in the right way . . . he's done." And Bush explained, simply and correctly, that the first step was "to get Hezbollah to stop doing this s---."

Israel is fighting to stop, and defeat, Hezbollah. Bush, Blair, and the Post editors understand that the right policy is to stand behind Israel, and to support that nation in defeating terror--for its own sake, and on behalf of liberal civilization. They understand that we are at war with an axis of jihadist-terrorist organizations and the states that sponsor them. They understand that we need to win the war. With Bush's leadership, we have a good chance to do so.

--William Kristol

9
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 31, 2006, 07:40:17 AM »
July 26, 2006:
The Evolution of Improvised Explosive Devices (back to list)    
International Analysis Alert Level: Severe


World

None

TRC Analysis:
Many insurgents and terrorists around the world are examining and embracing the successful use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) in Iraq (Country Profile) and integrating them into their battle plans. Defeating the IED threat requires a comprehensive approach.

Insurgents in Iraq have made the IED a central component of their overall 'bleed until bankruptcy' strategy. According to CENTCOM, in 2004, there were 5,607 IED attacks; in 2005, there was massive increase of 10,953 IED attacks, as insurgents realized the cost effectiveness of this weapon (source). Overall, IEDs have accounted for 873 of the over 1,600 Coalition fatalities in Iraq since the start of the war (source). This analysis examines how IEDs are constructed and used in Iraq; how the IED fits into the insurgents' overall strategy in Iraq; how the strategy governing the use of IEDs has proliferated to Afghanistan (Country Profile) and other fields of battle; and what the successful use of IEDs in Iraq means for the future national security of the United States (Country Profile).

IEDs were first used in Iraq in the fall of 2003 as the insurgency gathered steam. The devices were smaller and relatively unsophisticated. Early generations of IEDs in Iraq were typically constructed via a single mortar round or 152mm artillery round. Coalition forces soon adapted to these early IEDs by up-armoring their vehicles. However, insurgents responded by developing both more powerful and technically sophisticated devices and a networked web of cells capable of avoiding detection and carrying out attacks.

The IED

From a technical standpoint, IEDs in Iraq have evolved into devices capable of penetrating a 22-ton Bradley Fighting Vehicle. The increase in destructive power of insurgent IEDs is due in part to technical innovations such as stacking multiple heavy artillery rounds or anti-tank mines together. Additionally, insurgents mastered the construction and use of explosively formed projectiles, which can be constructed with readily available threaded pipe. A steel plate is screwed on to one end of the pipe, which is packed with high explosives, and a metal concave cap, which becomes the projectile upon detonation, seals the other end. The August 3, 2005 roadside bombing that killed 14 US Marines (Terrorist Incident) demonstrated the destructive power of explosively formed projectiles.

The IED Network

Technology was not the insurgent's only area of innovation. In an effort to increase efficiency and improve operational security, the Iraq insurgency has organized itself as a series of loosely affiliated groups and operational cells. Many of the IED attack cells are contracted out on an ad-hoc basis to terrorist and insurgent groups operating in Iraq. Moreover, these IEDs cells are organized in a modular manner: each member of the cell fills an organizational function?fundraising, acquiring components, constructing the bomb, choosing a target, concealing the IED, and detonating the device (source). IED cells may work together as a unit, or an individual specialist may organize an attack on an ad hoc basis. Typically, there are no more than 5-10 members in a single IED cell, and US intelligence estimates that there are approximately 100 IED cells operating within Iraq (source). The loosely coupled nature of IED cells to insurgent networks and the networked nature of the IED cells themselves reduced their exposure to attack and disruption from Coalition forces.

Defeating the IED Threat

The insurgents' growing sophistication in both the technology of their devices and the tradecraft used to build and deploy weapons have left the US military with the difficult choice of attempting to defeat the IED itself or the insurgent network responsible for the IED attacks. Both are required. Attacking the individual cells responsible for the construction and detonation of an IED is a temporary, albeit life saving, solution. Even if an individual IED cell is eliminated, there are other cells left to carry out attacks. Moreover, when Coalition forces develop a successful defense against IEDs, insurgents are able to respond with a low-cost countermeasure that can defeat the newly developed defense. This cycle of innovation typically favors the insurgents, as their innovations are less expensive and developed with greater speed than Coalition forces' defense.

One example of this cycle of defensive and offensive innovation can be seen in the insurgents' innovative use of various triggering devices. In response to the insurgents' use of radio signals to detonate an IED remotely, Coalition forces developed a jammer device, the Warlock, that blocked all radio signals within a set range. The Warlock system cost millions of dollars to deploy to the field, and it only worked for a short time until insurgents developed infrared and other wire-triggering devices that used no radio signals and circumvented the Warlock's radio-jamming defense. As a result, the low-cost innovation of new triggers invalidated millions of dollars of research and development. This example helps illustrate how the insurgents' individual tactical innovations fit into their overall strategy of bleeding the Coalition forces' capability and will to fight.

IED Proliferation

The use of IEDs in Iraq and elsewhere is a threat to US national security. Recent evidence demonstrates that the lessons learned from the successful use of IEDs in Iraq are bleeding out to other theaters of battle, Afghanistan in particular, creating a greater threat to US national security. Powerful IED designs proliferate rapidly from one theater to another in part through the Internet. According to Lt. Col Shawn Weed, an Army intelligence officer, "the Internet has changed the nature of warfare. Someone can learn how to build a new bomb, plug the plans into the Internet and share the technology very quickly." IEDs are increasingly used in Afghanistan, as Taliban insurgents (Group Profile) adopt the proven tools and tactics of Iraq's insurgents. Examples of the Taliban's increasingly sophisticated use of IEDs can be found in the April 9, 2006 attack against the Afghani military (Terrorist Incident).

Bomb recipes, generated from the Iraqi battlefront, will continue to proliferate across the Internet to other insurgent and terrorist groups around the world. Insurgents or terrorists in other battlefields will not always use the artillery shell IED design favored in Iraq; rather, homegrown cells adopt a design suitable to their local conditions and appropriate to their desired type of attack. For example, the London bombers constructed a bomb, based in part on a recipe from the Internet (source), and concealed the weapon in a backpack to avoid suspicion. As the disrupted plot against the PATH transit system in New York (Intel Report) and the successful Mumbai rail bombings (Intel Report) have demonstrated, terrorist cells continue to demonstrate preference for the cheap, easy, yet potentially spectacular, IED attack.
By Ned Moran, TRC Staff

10
Politics & Religion / Lebanon
« on: July 29, 2006, 03:03:12 PM »
Islamic Jihad: Israel killed militant head 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
 


Israeli troops killed two Islamic Jihad militants on Saturday, including the man the group described as the leader of its militant wing in the West Bank city of Nablus.

The group initially said in an announcement over mosque loudspeakers that the slain militant, Hani Awijan, 29, was the leader of its military wing in the West Bank. However, other members of the group later said Awijan headed gunmen in Nablus only.

Initial reports said Awijan was shot by Israeli undercover troops trying to arrest him while he played soccer with friends and relatives.

The army confirmed soldiers operated in Nablus and said a militant was killed in an exchange of gunfire.

Israel Radio said Awijan was responsible for a series of attacks on Israelis.

News of the arrest raid spread through Nablus, and large crowds gathered at the hospital. Militants burned tires in the streets and called for a general strike in the city. Shops were quickly closed.

11
Politics & Religion / Homeland Security
« on: July 29, 2006, 01:28:46 PM »
Seattle security raised after Jewish center shooting By Daisuke Wakabayashi
1 hour, 45 minutes ago
 
SEATTLE (Reuters) - Police stepped up security at Seattle synagogues and mosques on Saturday, a day after a Muslim man who said he was angry at        Israel shot dead one woman and wounded five others at a Jewish center.

Naveed Afzal Haq, 31, burst into the Jewish Federation of Greater Seattle on Friday afternoon. He surrendered without a struggle and police arrested him on charges of murder and five counts of attempted murder.

Amy Wasser-Simpson, the federation's vice president, told the Seattle Times that Haq got past security at the building and shouted, "I'm a Muslim American; I'm angry at Israel," before he began shooting.

Police officers circled Seattle's Seward Park area, the city's traditional Jewish neighborhood and home to three major synagogues. Uniformed guards stood outside the neighborhood's Bikur Cholim-Machzikay Hadath synagogue and the Sephardic Bikur Holim synagogue.

"There is high security," said Robin Boehler, chairwoman of the Jewish Federation. "This is the thing we dread the most happening."

She said three of the victims were not Jewish.

Authorities said they were "taking every precaution," searching for explosives and additional suspects, and were monitoring the city's synagogues and Jewish organizations.

Police said Haq is a U.S. citizen and that their initial conversation with him by phone while he was inside the building indicated that he was a Muslim. Police would not disclose the content of the conversation.

The Jewish federation, a group covering the Jewish community around the Puget Sound region, had organized a large rally last weekend to demonstrate support for Israel in its fight against Hizbollah in southern Lebanon.

"A CRIME OF HATE"

A silent march to protest Israeli actions in Gaza planned for Saturday morning in the Seattle suburb of Kirkland was canceled due to safety concerns, according to Arsalan Bukhari, president of the Seattle chapter of the Council of American-Islamic Relations.

There are no plans to scale back weekend schools or any other religious activities, he said.

"The events that are happening in the Middle East should not spill over into our city," said Bukhari.

In light of the fighting in the Middle East, Seattle police alerted its officers earlier this week to carefully monitoring synagogues, temples and mosques, but Seattle Police Chief Gil Kerlikowske said they had received no specific threats.

At a news conference on Friday, Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels said, "This was a purposeful, hateful act as far as we know, by an individual acting alone. ... This is a crime of hate."

The        FBI was working with local authorities on the case.

Local media reported Haq was on medication for a bipolar disorder and had a misdemeanor lewd conduct charge pending. He allegedly exposed himself at a shopping mall.

A hospital spokeswoman said three of the victims remain in critical condition. The surviving women range in age from 23 to 43, and one is pregnant. The dead woman's name has not been released.

Rob Jacobs, the executive director of the Anti-Defamation League of the Pacific Northwest, said acts of anti-Semitism are on the rise in region. Bias and discrimination complaints reported to the League in the Pacific Northwest quadrupled in the last three years.

"We see ourselves as very tolerant and accepting of all people, but the reality is that, on a day to day basis, we are sadly not too different from many other places," said Jacobs.

(Additional reporting by Elaine Porterfield)

12
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 24, 2006, 01:22:11 PM »
Hezbollah negotiator rejects peace proposal
Rice holds tense meetings with parliament speaker in surprise Beirut visit
The Associated Press


Updated: 2:22 p.m. CT July 24, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Lebanon?s parliament speaker, Hezbollah?s de facto negotiator, rejected proposals brought by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday, insisting a cease-fire must precede any talks about resolving Hezbollah?s presence in the south, an official close to the speaker said.

An official close to parliament speaker Nabih Berri said his talks with Rice failed to ?reach an agreement because Rice insisted on one full package to end the fighting.?

The package included a cease-fire, simultaneous with the deployment of the Lebanese army and an international force in south Lebanon and the removal of Hezbollah weapons from a buffer zone extending 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, said the official. He spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks were private.

Berri rejected the package, proposing instead a two-phased plan. First would come a cease-fire and negotiations for a prisoner swap. Then an inter-Lebanese dialogue would work out a solution to the situation in south Lebanon, said the official.

Root cause of violence
The United States has insisted that no cease-fire can take place without dealing with what it calls the root cause of the violence ? Hezbollah?s domination of the south along the Israeli border. Israel has rejected any halt in the fighting until two soldiers captured by the guerrillas are freed and the guerrillas are forced back.

The U.S. has said an international force might be necessary to help the Lebanese army move into the south. The central government has long refused to send the army in, insisting Hezbollah is a legitimate force and fearing that doing so would tear apart the country because of the guerrillas?s strength.

In her surprise visit to a battered Beirut, Rice met for about 45 minutes with Berri, an ally of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah and considered friendly to Syria, which held political and military sway in Lebanon for decades before pulling out troops last year.

Berri is an influential figure in Lebanon?s complicated and factionalized political structure. Although the United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist group and has no dealings with it, Rice has met with Berri before. She could use her discussions with him to send an indirect message to Hezbollah, and to try applying pressure on Syria.

?Backwards 50 years?
Rice also met with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, who told her that his government is looking to ?put an end to the war that is being inflicted on Lebanon.? Bush administration officials have so far said that a cease-fire would be premature unless it addresses the threat Hezbollah fighters pose to Israel.

Rice?s talks with Prime Minister Fuad Saniora appeared to have been tense. Saniora told Rice that Israel?s bombardment was taking his country ?backwards 50 years? and also called for a ?swift cease-fire,? the prime minister?s office said.

In a sign of the differences between the United States and Lebanon, Saniora presented his own package for a permanent solution that contained long-standing Lebanese complaints that must be addressed before ?Lebanese authority can be spread over all areas,? his office said.


It included a call for a ?swift cease-fire.? Then would come an over-all solution guaranteeing the return of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel, Israel?s withdrawal from the Chebaa Farms ? a tiny border region that Lebanon claims ? and the provision of minefields lain in south Lebanon during its 18-year occupation of the region.

Rice?s five-hour visit, which opened her trip to the Middle East, marked the first high-level U.S. diplomatic mission to the area since fighting erupted 13 days ago. Her stay was marked by tight security as motorcades whisked her through a pummeled capital city, passing cross streets that were blocked off by armed Lebanese security forces.

?Thank you for your courage and steadfastness,? Rice told Saniora after he greeted her with a kiss on both cheeks.

Rice arrived in Israel late Monday as darkness fell. She planned to meet with her Israeli counterpart, foreign minister Tzipi Livni.


Blair: ?Enormous diplomatic efforts?
In Washington, meanwhile, the White House announced that President Bush has ordered helicopters and ships to Lebanon to provide humanitarian aid. Presidential spokesman Tony Snow said Rice discussed the assistance with Lebanese officials during her visit would announce the U.S. commitment later in the day as she continued on to Israel.

Rice and Saniora shook hands across a conference table on which there were two flags, one Lebanese and one American. Half a dozen other diplomats sat around the table.

Though south Beirut has been heavily targeted by Israel because it is home to Hezbollah leaders, there have been no bombings in the city since Sunday afternoon. Reporters with Rice heard no explosions during their brief stay.

Rice said President Bush wanted her to make Lebanon the first stop on her trip to the region, which has been embroiled in combat between Israel and Hezbollah since July 12. It was her third visit to Lebanon and was intended to make a show of support and concern for both the Saniora government and the Lebanese people, administration officials said.

Meanwhile, Britain hopes a peace plan will emerge for Lebanon within days that could lead to a cessation of hostilities, Prime Minister Tony Blair said on Monday.

?There have been as you might expect over the past few days enormous diplomatic efforts to get us to the point where I hope at some point within the next few days we can say very clearly what our plan is to bring about an immediate cessation of hostilities,? Blair said during a news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in London.

Rice also met with members of the Lebanese parliament who have been staunch opponents of Syria?s influence in Lebanon. She was also scheduled to travel to Israel and to Rome, where she expected to meet with officials of European and moderate Arab governments.

Saniora and other Lebanese officials have been pushing Rice to call for an immediate cease-fire, something the Bush administration has resisted on grounds that it would not address the root causes of hostilities ? Hezbollah?s domination of south Lebanon.

?We all want to urgently end the fighting. We have absolutely the same goal,? Rice told reporters traveling with her.

Stringent security
Rice?s mission took a dramatic turn with her surprise arrival here under stringent security. Under heavy guard, Rice flew by helicopter over the Mediterranean from Cyprus. Her motorcade sped through Beirut on the way to her meeting with Saniora.

R. Nicholas Burns, U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs, said Monday that Rice will seek to use ?our influence to see if there can be a cessation of hostilities.?

However, he told CBS? ?The Early Show,? any cease-fire would have to be long-lasting and involve a removal of Hezbollah rockets on the Israeli-Lebanese border and a return of Israeli soldiers taken captive.

En route to the region, Rice discussed the role of Syria, which the U.S. considers one of the world?s state sponsors of terror. In recent weeks, the Bush administration has blamed it, along with Iran, for stoking the recent violence in the Middle East by encouraging the Lebanese Hezbollah militia to attack northern Israel.

Rice pointed out that there are existing channels for talking with Syrian leaders about resolving the Middle East crisis when they?re ready to talk.

Diplomacy from all sides
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are working to entice Syria to end support for Hezbollah, a move that is central to resolving the conflict in Lebanon and unhitching Damascus from its alliance with Iran, the Shiite Muslim guerrillas? other main backer.

Arab diplomats in Cairo said the United States had signaled a willingness to re-engage Syria through Washington?s encouragement of the Egyptians and Saudis to lean on Damascus to stop backing Hezbollah.

In a brazen raid into Israel on July 12, Hezbollah killed eight and captured two Israeli soldiers, provoking Israel?s biggest military campaign against Lebanon in 24 years. The fighting has left hundreds of civilians dead, mostly in Lebanon.

? 2006 The Associated Press.

13
Politics & Religion / Howl of Respect to our Soldiers/Veterans
« on: July 24, 2006, 09:24:35 AM »
Vets of '83 Beirut Bombing View Current Ops With Pride, Resolve
By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

 
WASHINGTON, July 21, 2006 ? Watching TV coverage of Marines from their former unit helping Americans leave Beirut churns up a host of emotions for former Marines who served there when a barracks was bombed in October 1983.

Marine Gen. P.X. Kelley (left) and Col. Tim Geraghty (right) take then-Vice President George H.W. Bush on a tour around the site of the Beirut barracks bombing two days after the Oct. 23, 1983, explosion killed 241 servicemembers, mostly Marines, at the Beirut International Airport. Photo by Randy Gaddo    
 
Randy Gaddo was a Marine staff sergeant with the 24th Marine Amphibious Unit serving in Lebanon when a terrorist attack in the early morning hours of Oct. 23, 1983, claimed the lives of 241 U.S. Marines, sailors and soldiers. Hundreds more were wounded or disabled when a truck laden with the equivalent of 20,000 pounds of TNT detonated on the ground floor of the 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment, Battalion Landing Team barracks.

Four days after the attack, then-U.S. President Ronald Reagan praised the fallen troops for their sacrifice in helping bring a better future to the people of Lebanon. "We cannot and will not dishonor them ... and the sacrifices they've made by failing to remain as faithful to the cause of freedom and the pursuit of peace as they have been," Reagan said in a broadcast to the American people.

Yesterday, Gaddo and his former boss in Beirut, retired Maj. Bob Jordan, juggled their emotions as they watched televised images of Marines and sailors making good on that promise. Marines returned to Beirut this week for the first time in more than 20 years to help U.S. citizens caught in the crossfire between Hezbollah terrorists and Israeli air and artillery forces.

Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit -- the new name for Gaddo's and Jordan's former unit -- ferried some 1,200 Americans from a Beirut beach to the USS Nashville yesterday.

Gaddo said he felt immensely proud watching the Marines carry out their mission. "They're going in there to bring people out and following on what we established there," he said from his Peachtree City, Ga., home. "It makes you feel pretty proud."

"We're in awe," Jordan said of the Marines. "These young men and women are so professional, so well-trained and so well-equipped. ... Their motivation is so high."

Jordan said he's particularly proud that Marines from 1st Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment -- the first and last unit he served with during a career that spanned almost 30 years -- are conducting the mission.

But Gaddo acknowledged that he's also concerned about the Marines' well-being. "Those of us who were there can picture exactly what the Marines are seeing," he said.

He remembers all too clearly the events of a beautiful Sunday morning 23 years ago when a terrorist truck bomb exploded in his barracks building.

Gaddo, 31 at the time, was a photojournalist from Marine Corps Air Station Beaufort, S.C., attached to the 24th MEU for the peacekeeping mission in Beirut. He had awakened early to process some film in a makeshift photo lab he'd set up on the third floor of the barracks building. After that, Gaddo had planned to join other Marines in laying plastic sheets and sandbags over a bunker to prepare it for the upcoming rainy season.

But before tackling the day's work, Gaddo headed to the command operations center in a tent about 250 yards away from the barracks to grab a quick cup of coffee. He figures it was that decision that ultimately saved his life. "Another three minutes and I would have been in the (barracks) building," he said.

From the command tent, Gaddo heard M-16 rifle fire, then a blast that threw him back 6 feet from where he was standing. "It was an amazing concussion," he said. "It was like somebody hit me with a two-by-four. I could feel my face being pushed back as the shock wave approached."

Dazed, Gaddo looked over the two- or three-story building that stood between him and the barracks building and saw a big mushroom cloud rising from the area. The leaves had been blown off all the trees. Gaddo realized that he could see the air traffic control tower of Beirut International Airport -- a landmark the barracks building should have blocked from his vantage point.

Suddenly the realization sunk in: the barracks had been hit. "What had normally been a four-story building was down to a story and a half of rubble," he recalled. "The dust was all still rising and it started to all become clear."

Gaddo and his fellow Marines sprung into action, grabbing cots and litters and running toward the building to search for survivors. They dodged incoming sniper fire and worked amid the fires throughout the area, some sparked by exploding ammunition that had been in the barracks building.

"There was a lot of chaos. We were all in shock," he said.

The rescuers struggled to get a grip on their emotions: anger at their attackers, sadness for those lost, and for some, guilt that their lives had been spared when others' had not.

"You go through a whole range of emotions," Gaddo said. "We lost a lot of Marines that day."

Gaddo, Jordan and fellow veterans continue to remember those Marines through the Beirut Veterans of America, a group dedicated to ensuring that servicemembers killed in Beirut aren't forgotten.

As founding vice president of the group, Gaddo is busy planning the "23rd Remembrance" event Oct. 21 to 23 in Jacksonville, N.C., home of the Beirut Memorial. The memorial includes a wall with the names of all those willed during the peacekeeping mission in Lebanon from 1982 to 1984.

The event will include a candlelight vigil at 6 a.m. on Oct. 23, when all the names on the wall will be read aloud. "Reading their names aloud ensures that these men are remembered for their courage and their sacrifice," said Jordan, the group's founding president.

Jordan expressed hope that Americans will remember not just those lost, but also the lessons of Oct. 23, 1983. "We were being tested, and we failed the test," he said of the U.S. response to the attack.

Jordan calls the attack on the Marine barracks "the first skirmish in ... the battle against terror" and said it's critical that the United States not falter in its war on terror.

The United States must work with Muslims to counter the threat Islamic extremists present, he said. "We need to understand that these people believe in what they are doing" and won't stop until they re-establish an extremist state under a supreme Islamic ruler, he said of the terrorists.

"We need to understand that they are willing to die for it and willing to kill us to achieve it," he said.

14
Politics & Religion / Homeland Security
« on: July 24, 2006, 09:21:44 AM »
FBI Eyes Hizbollah In U.S. as Tensions with Iran Rise

By CAROLINE DREES, REUTERS, NEW YORK


The FBI is trying to ferret out possible Hizbollah agents in the United States amid concerns that rising U.S.-Iranian tensions could trigger attacks on American soil, FBI officials said.
Relations between Washington and Tehran, which soured after the 1979 Islamic revolution, have deteriorated further recently over Iran?s nuclear program and its support for Hizbollah, the militant Islamic group whose capture of two Israeli soldiers last week prompted Israel to launch retaliatory strikes in Lebanon.
American law enforcement officials are concerned the Lebanon-based Hizbollah, which has so far focused on fund-raising and other support activities inside the United States, could turn to violence in solidarity with Iran.
"If the situation escalates, will Hizbollah take the gloves off, so to speak, and attack here in the United States, which they?ve been reluctant to do until now?" said William Kowalski, Assistant Special Agent in Charge of the FBI in Detroit.
Detroit is home to one of the largest Muslim communities in the United States.
"Because of the heightened difficulties surrounding U.S.-Iranian relations, the FBI has increased its focus on Hizbollah," said FBI spokesman Paul Bresson in Washington.
"Those investigations relate particularly to the potential presence of Hizbollah members on U.S. soil."
There is no specific or credible intelligence pointing to an imminent U.S. attack by Hizbollah, which the United States considers a terrorist group, Bresson added.
But Iran?s Hizbollah -- which claims links to the Lebanese group -- said on July 18 it stood ready to attack U.S. and Israeli interests worldwide.
FBI Director Robert Mueller told reporters in Toronto that agents were keeping a close eye on Hizbollah, especially "when the international situation heats up."
AMERICAN MUSLIMS WORRY
Muslim American groups worry that fear of Hizbollah violence in the United States could again cast an unwelcome spotlight on their community, which has often felt a target of surveillance or discrimination since the Sept. 11 attacks.
Ibrahim Hooper, a spokesman for the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Washington, said his advocacy group fielded almost daily complaints from Muslims who felt singled out or intimidated by government officials.
Muslim American groups say that while they support fighting against terrorism, they are concerned the focus is unfairly on them.
"There are individual concerns that the government does interviews with individuals, with kind of subtle threats that they could be arrested or deported if they don?t cooperate. That is really the concern for a lot of these groups right now," said Salam al-Marayati, head of the Los Angeles-based Muslim Public Affairs Council.
"That fact in itself will alienate, frustrate and perhaps even push these young people further to the margins, which creates a very problematic situation for all of us," he said. "In a way, this is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Marayati, who consults regularly with government officials, said they were listening to his concerns, but should do more to show Americans that their Muslim compatriots are just as determined as they are to fight terrorism.
"Since the relationship is not publicized, people think we?re not contributing and Muslims continue to be seen as a problem in our society as opposed to part of the solution," he said.

15
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 24, 2006, 09:15:22 AM »
Let Israel Take Off the Gloves
Author:  Max Boot, Senior Fellow for National Security Studies


July 19, 2006
Los Angeles Times

A lot has been written in recent years about stateless terrorism. The events of the last few weeks show, to the contrary, that some of the world?s most malignant terrorist groups continue to rely on state support. Hamas runs its own quasi-state?the Palestinian Authority. Hezbollah is a state-within-a-state in Lebanon. And lurking behind both are the real troublemakers: Iran and Syria.

The current crisis exposes the inadequacy of American policy toward this new axis of evil. The problem is not, as so many have it, that President Bush?s ?cowboy diplomacy? has unsettled the region?s vaunted stability. It is that Bush hasn?t been enough of a cowboy.

Working with France, the U.S. succeeded last year in forcing Syrian troops out of Lebanon, thus allowing free elections to be held. But Lebanese democracy will remain hollow until Hezbollah disarms in accordance with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, something that no one has been willing to enforce?until now.

The U.S. should have done more to stop Syria from supporting not only the terrorists targeting Israel but those targeting U.S. troops in Iraq. Syrian strongman Bashar Assad appeared to be down for the count when a U.N. investigation found evidence linking his regime to the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But Bush let him get up off the mat. Senior U.S. officials keep proclaiming that Syria?s support for terrorism is unacceptable, but by not doing more to stop it, they have tacitly accepted it.

The same is true of Iran. The mullahs continue to develop nuclear weapons and smuggle explosives into Iraq, and our only response has been talk and more talk. Perhaps this is a prelude to eventual military action, but in the meantime the administration should have done more to aid internal foes of the mullahocracy. It has taken until no?five years into the Bush presidency?for the U.S. to commit any serious money ($66 million) for Iranian democracy promotion, and the State Department has blocked efforts on Capitol Hill to spend even more.

The Jewish state is now paying the price for American inaction. The Katyusha, Kassam and Fajr rockets raining down on Israel are either made by Iran or with Iranian assistance. The same is true of the C-802 cruise missile that hit an Israeli warship. Syria facilitates the delivery of these weapons and provides a haven for Hamas political head Khaled Meshaal. The Iranians and Syrians are as culpable for the aggression against Israel as if they had been pulling the triggers themselves?which, for all we know, they may have been.

And world leaders such as Vladimir V. Putin (he of the scorched-earth policy in Chechnya) have the chutzpah to criticize Israel for its ?disproportionate? response? What would a proportionate Israeli response to the snatching of its soldiers and the bombardment of its soil look like? Should Israel kidnap low-level Hamas and Hezbollah operatives? Those organizations wouldn?t mind in the slightest; they want as many martyrs as possible.

The real problem is that Israel?s response has been all too proportional. So far it has only gone after Hamas and Hezbollah. (Some collateral damage is inevitable because these groups hide among civilians.) Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is showing superhuman restraint by not, at the very least, ?accidentally? bombing the Syrian and Iranian embassies in Beirut, which serve as Hezbollah liaison offices.

It?s hard to know what accounts for this Israeli restraint, for which, of course, it gets no thanks. It may just be a matter of time before the gloves come off. Or Olmert may be afraid of upsetting the regional status quo. The American neocon agenda of regime change is not one that finds favor with most Israelis (ironic, considering how often the rest of the world has denounced neocons as Mossad agents). The Israeli attitude toward neighboring dictators is ?better the devil you know.? That may make sense with Jordan and Egypt, which have made peace with Israel, but not with Syria, which serves as a vital conduit between Tehran and Hamas and Hezbollah.

Iran may be too far away for much Israeli retaliation beyond a single strike on its nuclear weapons complex. (Now wouldn?t be a bad time.) But Syria is weak and next door. To secure its borders, Israel needs to hit the Assad regime. Hard. If it does, it will be doing Washington?s dirty work. Our best response is exactly what Bush has done so far?reject premature calls for a cease-fire and let Israel finish the job.

This article appears in full on CFR.org by permission of its original publisher. It was originally available here

16
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 24, 2006, 06:33:55 AM »
Captiancss,

Shis Inde is the correct name of the tribe called Apache.

Pastme-oma is my native name.

Myke

17
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 23, 2006, 07:14:05 PM »
Captianccs,

I have no problem with Israel.  All for their right to self defense.  But when you bring up the treatment of how the Anglos treated the native tribes.  Then I will speak up.  When you talk about genocide and the stealing of land then the Anglos are experts.

Take it from Shis Inde.

Myke (Pastme-oma)

18
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 23, 2006, 02:22:10 PM »
Captianccs,

I hope you are not suggesting that the Israeli's use genicide as a tactic against their Arab neighbors.  Like the Anglo's used against the native tribes of the America's.

Myke

19
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 23, 2006, 12:37:54 PM »
Bowser,

I would assume if someone invaded your small piece of land in NZ then you would do whatever it took to defend it.

Don't you believe that Israel also has the right to self defense?

Please excuse my ignorance but what is a "watcher"?

Myke Willis
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hunker Down With History

By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, July 18, 2006; A19



The greatest mistake Israel could make at the moment is to forget that Israel itself is a mistake. It is an honest mistake, a well-intentioned mistake, a mistake for which no one is culpable, but the idea of creating a nation of European Jews in an area of Arab Muslims (and some Christians) has produced a century of warfare and terrorism of the sort we are seeing now. Israel fights Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south, but its most formidable enemy is history itself.

This is why the Israeli-Arab war, now transformed into the Israeli-Muslim war (Iran is not an Arab state), persists and widens. It is why the conflict mutates and festers. It is why Israel is now fighting an organization, Hezbollah, that did not exist 30 years ago and why Hezbollah is being supported by a nation, Iran, that was once a tacit ally of Israel's. The underlying, subterranean hatred of the Jewish state in the Islamic world just keeps bubbling to the surface. The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and some other Arab countries may condemn Hezbollah, but I doubt the proverbial man in their street shares that view.

There is no point in condemning Hezbollah. Zealots are not amenable to reason. And there's not much point, either, in condemning Hamas. It is a fetid, anti-Semitic outfit whose organizing principle is hatred of Israel. There is, though, a point in cautioning Israel to exercise restraint -- not for the sake of its enemies but for itself. Whatever happens, Israel must not use its military might to win back what it has already chosen to lose: the buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip itself.

Hard-line critics of Ariel Sharon, the now-comatose Israeli leader who initiated the pullout from Gaza, always said this would happen: Gaza would become a terrorist haven. They said that the moderate Palestinian Authority would not be able to control the militants and that Gaza would be used to fire rockets into Israel and to launch terrorist raids. This is precisely what has happened.

It is also true, as some critics warned, that Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon was seen by its enemies -- and claimed by Hezbollah -- as a defeat for the mighty Jewish state. Hezbollah took credit for this, as well it should. Its persistent attacks bled Israel. In the end, Israel got out and the United Nations promised it a secure border. The Lebanese army would see to that. (And the check is in the mail.)

All that the critics warned has come true. But worse than what is happening now would be a retaking of those territories. That would put Israel smack back to where it was, subjugating a restless, angry population and having the world look on as it committed the inevitable sins of an occupying power. The smart choice is to pull back to defensible -- but hardly impervious -- borders. That includes getting out of most of the West Bank -- and waiting (and hoping) that history will get distracted and move on to something else. This will take some time, and in the meantime terrorism and rocket attacks will continue.

In his forthcoming book, "The War of the World," the admirably readable British historian Niall Ferguson devotes considerable space to the horrific history of the Jews in 19th- and 20th-century Europe. Never mind the Holocaust. In 1905 there were pogroms in 660 different places in Russia, and more than 800 Jews were killed -- all this in a period of less than two weeks. This was the reality of life for many of Europe's Jews.

Little wonder so many of them emigrated to the United States, Canada, Argentina or South Africa. Little wonder others embraced the dream of Zionism and went to Palestine, first a colony of Turkey and later of Britain. They were in effect running for their lives. Most of those who remained -- 97.5 percent of Poland's Jews, for instance -- were murdered in the Holocaust.

Another gifted British historian, Tony Judt, wraps up his recent book "Postwar" with an epilogue on how the sine qua non of the modern civilized state is recognition of the Holocaust. Much of the Islamic world, notably Iran under its Holocaust-denying president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stands outside that circle, refusing to make even a little space for the Jews of Europe and, later, those from the Islamic world. They see Israel not as a mistake but as a crime. Until they change their view, the longest war of the 20th century will persist deep into the 21st. It is best for Israel to hunker down.

cohenr@washpost.com

20
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 22, 2006, 01:09:41 PM »
Back to Story - Help
Israel seizes Hizbollah base: army By Lin Noueihed
 40 minutes ago
 


Israel ousted Hizbollah guerrillas from a stronghold just inside Lebanon on Saturday after several days of fierce fighting, the army said, as it bombarded targets across the south of the country.

Ground forces commander Major-General Benny Gantz said Israeli soldiers took the hilltop village of Maroun al-Ras, where six Israeli commandos have been killed this week, inflicting dozens of casualties on Hizbollah.

Israel said it planned no full-scale invasion of Lebanon for now, but warned villagers near the border to leave.

In the town of Marjayoun, about five miles from the border, cars packed with people waving white flags fled north fearing Israel will step up an 11-day-old war which has killed 351 people, mostly civilians.

There was no immediate comment from the Shi'ite Muslim guerrilla group, which had said in an earlier statement its fighters had inflicted casualties on the Israeli side.

An Israeli army spokesman had said troops backed by around a dozen tanks and armored vehicles had been fighting in Maroun al-Ras, about two km (one mile) inside Lebanese territory, and found Hizbollah bunkers and weapons stores.

He said Israel might widen its military action, but was still looking at "limited operations." "We're not talking about massive forces going inside at this point."

Resisting growing calls for a ceasefire, the United States stressed the need to tackle what it sees as the root cause of the conflict -- Hizbollah's armed presence on Israel's border and the role of its allies, Syria and Iran.

"Resolving the crisis demands confronting the terrorist group that launched the attacks and the nations that support it," U.S President George W. Bush said on Saturday, a day before Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was to head to Israel.

Israeli forces had urged residents of 14 villages in south Lebanon to leave by 4 p.m. (1300 GMT) ahead of more air raids.

TROOP BUILD UP

Israel has built up its forces at the border and called up 3,000 reserves. Defense Minister Amir Peretz has spoken of a possible land offensive to halt rocket attacks that have killed 15 Israeli civilians in the past 11 days.

But Israel is wary of mounting another invasion, only six years after it ended a costly 22-year occupation of the south. Already, 19 soldiers have been killed in the latest conflict.

Israeli air raids hit transmission stations used by several Lebanese television channels and a mobile telephone mast north of Beirut, cutting mobile phone services in northern Lebanon.

The official in charge of the station transmitting LBC programs was killed, the channel said. A nun at a nearby church said two French nationals were also lightly wounded.

Israel's army said it hit a Hizbollah radio and TV transmitter and an antenna for frequencies "used by Hizbollah." Hizbollah's al-Manar television was still broadcasting after the strikes.

Israeli medics and the army said at least 10 Hizbollah rockets hit towns in northern Israel, wounding 10 people.

Across south Lebanon, families piled into cars and trucks -- flying white sheets they hoped would ward off attack -- and clogged roads north after Israel warned residents to flee for safety beyond the Litani river, about 12 miles from the border.

But witnesses said an Israeli air strike hit one of the few remaining crossings over the river early on Saturday.

The war started when Hizbollah captured two soldiers and killed eight in a July 12 raid into Israel, which had already launched an offensive in the Gaza Strip to try to recover another soldier seized by Palestinian militants on June 25.

Washington supports proposals for an expanded international force on the Israel-Lebanon border but details were not fixed, a senior U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. A 2,000-strong U.N. force monitors the border at present.

Amid growing concern about the plight of civilians in Lebanon, Israel said it would ease humanitarian access.

U.N. relief agencies have called for safe passage to take in food and medical supplies. An estimated half million people have fled their homes.

Foreigners have also flooded out of the country. Ships and aircraft worked through the night scooping more tired and scared people from Lebanon and taking them to Cyprus and Turkey.

(Additional reporting by Jerusalem, Nicosia, Washington bureaux)

21
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 21, 2006, 11:25:29 AM »
Q&A: Somali Islamist advance

A militia run by Islamic courts is in control of 99% of the Somali capital, Mogadishu, raising fears in the west that they could provide a safe haven for Islamic radicals from al-Qaeda.
But many Mogadishu residents are glad that the city has been reunited, after being fought over by various warlords for the past 15 years. Almost all Somalis are Muslim and have no problem with the idea of being governed according to Islamic law.

What is the Union of Islamic Courts?

A network of 11 Islamic courts has been set in recent years in Mogadishu, funded by businessmen who preferred any semblance of law and order to complete anarchy.

The courts' stated goal is to restore a system of Sharia law in the city and put an end to impunity and fighting on the streets.

Whilst they are widely credited by some residents in Mogadishu as having clamped down on criminal activity in the city before the recent upsurge in violence, there are elements within the Islamist militia pushing for an Islamic state.

The militias became increasingly powerful as a military force after Mogadishu's main warlords formed the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism this year.

The alliance - widely believed to have been backed by the US - said it wished to root out al-Qaeda members being sheltered by the courts.

Who supports them?

As a grassroots movement they have become increasingly popular among city residents and the business community desperate to see an end to the rule of the gun.


Where the Islamic courts militia has obtained its substantial weaponry and financing is unclear though.
A United Nations report, which called for a tighter arms embargo on Somalia, said that Ethiopia was supplying weapons to the interim government while Eritrea was arming the Islamic courts.

Some fingers have been pointed towards Saudi Arabia and others to wealthy foreign supporters of Islamic militancy.


They are not reported to be seeking money from Somalis at their checkpoints in the city, as militias loyal to warlords did.

What about the al-Qaeda links?

The main source of concern for the United States is al-Qaeda involvement.


The Islamic courts deny any links, or that there are terror training camps in Somalia.

But diplomats believe that small groups of al-Qaeda militants, including foreigners, are operating in the country.




There have been at least four attacks on US and Israeli targets in east Africa - all linked in some way to Somalia.

Has life changed in Mogadishu?

Not much - for the moment.

The Islamic courts have stressed that they will not set up a Taleban-style government and the courts themselves have not changed much.

There are fewer check-points where gunmen working for the warlords used to stop vehicles and demand money.


And life is obviously much better now than for much of this year when the Islamists were battling the warlords, leading to hundreds of deaths - mostly civilians.
But life for most Mogadishu residents remains extremely tough.

There are very few jobs - many depend on money sent home by relatives abroad.

The city is home to many people who have fled fighting in other parts of the country over the past 15 years.

Many live in abandoned buildings or shelters cobbled together from whatever they can find - branches, pieces of material or cardboard.


However, it remains far too dangerous for all but the very bravest aid workers to operate in Mogadishu - as well as the interim government which is based some 250km (158 miles) away in Baidoa.


What has happened to the alliance of warlords?


Most of them have fled Mogadishu.


 WHERE ARE THE WARLORDS?
Ex-Jowhar
Mohamed Dhere : exiled in Ethiopia, believed to be very ill
Ex-Mogadishu
Abdirashid Shire Ilgayte : exiled in Dubai after Kenya deported him
Mohamed Afrah Qanyare : in his home-town of El Bur
Muse Sudi Yalahow : with Qanyare in El Bur
Bashir Ragge : with Qanyare in El Bur
Omar Finish : changed allegiance to the courts, believed to be in the capital
Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid : defeated by Islamists, probably fled  

Only Abdi Hassan Awale Qeybdid, one-time commander of troops loyal to the late warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed who fought US peacekeepers in Mogadishu in the early 1990s, was the last warlord to remain in the capital, but went missing after his forces were defeated in a two day clash in July.


Omar Finish is believed to be still in Mogadishu and says he will now support the Islamic courts.

Abdirashid Shire Ilgayte, owner of Mogadishu's Salafi Hotel, was deported from Nairobi after the Kenyan authorities said they would no longer host those responsible for destabilising Somalia.

He is now in exile in Dubai.

Mohamed Afrah Qanyare has returned to his home-town of El Bur in central Somalia.

He has been joined there by Muse Sudi Yalahow and Bashir Ragge, who are reported to be seeking US help to find refuge outside Somalia.

Jowhar's former warlord Mohamed Dhere has fled to Ethiopia, where he is believed to be very ill.

So will peace now prevail?

The key issue now, with the power of the Mogadishu warlords eroded, will be how the Union of Islamic Courts gets on with President Yusuf's interim government.

Mr Yusuf was elected by MPs in 2004 as part of a peace process based in neighbouring Kenya.

He controls only a very small part of the country.

Some had argued that the unification of Mogadishu for the first time in 15 years could make peace easier to achieve - as the government would only have one group to talk to.

His government at first welcomed the Islamists and talks were started but they have since fallen out over the question of whether foreign peacekeepers are needed in Somalia. It is unclear if they will resume.

The Islamic courts say they can guarantee security but the government does not seem convinced and has asked for African peacekeepers.

Mr Yusuf also insists that the courts recognise his authority before any more talks.

Even more worryingly, the Islamic courts say that Ethiopian troops have crossed the border.

Ethiopia has denied this but it has supported Mr Yusuf against Islamic groups in the past and it raise the possibility of a regional conflict.

If Baidoa were attacked by the Courts, the Ethiopians might intervene.

Securing a lasting peace is not easy in Somalia.

22
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 21, 2006, 09:31:42 AM »
Last update - 02:17 17/07/2006    
 
 
ANALYSIS: Israel-Hezbollah fighting yet to reach its zenith
 
By Ze'ev Schiff, Haaretz Correspondent
 
The fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah, which is backed by Syria and Iran, has still not reached its zenith. The Israel Defense Forces' operational plans against the Shi'ite organizations have not yet been carried out. The next two days are the most critical and a lot depends on whether Tehran decides to take a chance and authorize Hezbollah to launch long-range missiles with more powerful warheads. This is a capability Hezbollah still retains, despite the heavy blows it has suffered in the IDF air strikes.

On Sunday, Israel bore witness to the use of more powerful rockets against Haifa, which killed eight people and injured dozens more. The Syrian-made 220 mm rocket has a warhead weighing more than 50 kilograms. Hezbollah was supplied with these rockets as the Syrian armed forces were receiving them off the production lines. The decision to give Hezbollah the rockets was made when it was concluded that the group would be considered part of the Syrian army's overall emergency preparedness.

The risk to Iran is not military, but rather that Hezbollah would suffer such damage that it would no longer be counted as the sole external element of Iran's Islamic Revolution. It is difficult to assess what the Iranian leadership will decide. If it does opt for aggravating the situation, it will certainly encourage the Syrians to become involved in the confrontation, but all indications suggest that Damascus is not eager to get dragged into war.

Israel is also not interested in a third front, so long as Syria does not intervene in the fighting on the side of Hezbollah.

Another option is that Iran will decide that it is not advantageous for Hezbollah to launch "one too many" rockets at Israel's civilians. In the past 24 hours, there has been a slowing in the air strikes against Lebanese national infrastructure. Now attention is focused on
Hezbollah infrastructure, including rockets, positions and bunkers, in southern Lebanon, the Beka'a and Beirut.

From a military standpoint, the mobile Fajr rockets pose a special problem because they are more difficult to locate and destroy. On Sunday, the air force concentrated on attacks against regular Katyusha rockets whose range is shorter and many of which have already been launched against towns in the Galilee. But the presence of some 600 Hezbollah storage bunkers, a third of which were prepared for the longer range rockets, makes the task difficult.

Israel will also try to target the 12 most senior members of Hezbollah, who are hiding in bunkers deep in the Dahiya quarter in southern Beirut. These men are strategic targets and they include Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Ibrahim Akil, Imad Mughniye and others. These senior figures constitute the group's equivalent of a General Staff and its political-diplomatic cabinet.

One of the reasons for the repeated attacks against Dahiya is that the Hezbollah's top headquarters are situated there. The area is described by IDF as a "terrorist center" and although the aim is not to harm civilians, the IDF hopes that the permanent residents will leave their homes so that they will not be hurt. A total of 40 targets have been marked in Dahiya, some linked by underground tunnels; one of them is a subterranean factory for special types of ammunition.

23
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 21, 2006, 09:28:53 AM »
Last update - 18:05 15/07/2006    
 
 
IDF officer: Israel has no plans to attack Syria
 
By Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondent, and News Agencies
 
Responding to a report in a pan-Arab daily newspaper that Israel presented Damascus with an ultimatum, an Israel Defense Forces officer said Saturday that targeting Syria is currently not on Israel's agenda.

"We're not a gang that shoots in every direction," the officer said. "It won't be right to bring Syria into the campaign."

The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported Saturday that Israel issued an ultimatum to Syrian President Bashar Assad, according to which a regional war would erupt within 72 hours if Damascus does not prevent Hezbollah attacks.

According to the report, a Pentagon source said that if Syria does not try to influence Hezbollah, Israel could bomb essential installations in Syria. The source neither confirmed nor denied rumors that Israel had given Damascus 72 hours to comply with international demands.

The IDF officer emphasized that the Golan Heights frontier has been quiet since 1974, a factor which Israeli views as a vital security asset. The officer said that the Syrian air force as well as additional units are on high alert, a fact which hasn't escaped Israel's attention.

The source added that even though Syria is playing a negative role in the latest crisis, he believes that it had no direct role in the outbreak of fighting.

"Syria is a negative factor, but it is not strong enough in order to instigate all these events," the source said.

U.S. President George W. Bush called on Syria on Saturday to exert its influence to persuade Hezbollah to stop attacks against Israel.

At a joint news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Bush laid the blame for the upsurge in Middle East violence on Hezbollah.

"The best way to stop the violence is for Hezbollah to lay down its arms and to stop attacking. And therefore I call upon Syria to exert influence over Hezbollah."

In recent days, senior U.S. administration officials, led Bush blamed Syria for the escalation of violence in the region. Syria's ambassador to the U.S. regarded U.S. policy in the region as favoring Israel, which he said was not helping the situation.

According to analysts and senior officials in Syria, Damascus is aware of the threat of an Israeli strike. In recent days, senior officials warned Israel against attacking. Lawmaker Muhammad Habash stated that if Damascus is attacked, another front would open on the Golan Heights. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned Israel against attacking Syria.

Syria's ambassador to London said Friday that Damascus wants to remain outside the conflict in Lebanon. He went on to say that Syria demanded that Hezbollah stop launching Katyusha rockets at Israel.

On Friday, the ruling Baath Party said Syria will support Hezbollah and Lebanon against Israel's attacks on the country.

"The Syrian people are ready to extend full support to the Lebanese people and their heroic resistance to remain steadfast and confront the barbaric Israeli aggression and its crimes," said a communique from the party's national command issued after a meeting.

It said Israel and the U.S. "are trying to wipe out Arab resistance in every land under occupation" and that Assad was aware of the seriousness of the situation in the region.

The national command is the highest echelon of the Baath Party, which has been in power since 1963.

Assad, who has resisted Israeli and American pressure to abandon support for Hezbollah, was not at the meeting.

Hezbollah's capture of two Israel Defense Forces soldiers and barrage of rocket attacks incited major Israeli military action against Lebanese targets for the first time since it withdrew from south Lebanon in 2000 after a 22-year occupation.

Ahmadinejad: Israel would not dare to move against Iran
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that Israel would not dare to move against the Islamic republic, state television reported.

Iran has denied Israeli suggestions that Hezbollah guerrillas could take the captured soldiers to Iran.

"The Zionist regime does not dare to cast a look with bad intentions at Iran," the president was quoted as saying by state television.

On Thursday, Ahmadinejad said an Israeli strike on Syria would be considered an attack on the whole Islamic world that would bring a "fierce response", state television reported.

"If the Zionist regime commits another stupid move and attacks Syria, this will be considered like attacking the whole Islamic world and this regime will receive a very fierce response," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying in a telephone conversation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

The president made the comments after Israel struck Beirut airport and military airbases and blockaded Lebanese ports in reprisals that have killed 55 civilians in Lebanon since Hezbollah gunmen captured two Israeli soldiers a day earlier.

"He (Ahmadinejad) also said it was a must for the Organisation of the Islamic Conference to become more active regarding the new crisis created by the Zionist regime," state television reported.

Arab governments have agreed to send their foreign ministers to Cairo for an emergency meeting on Saturday to discuss the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

But the 22-member League has not yet seen specific proposals for a joint Arab response to the Israeli attacks.

Major Arab governments other than Syria are not expected to give unqualified backing Hezbollah, or the Palestinian militant group Hamas which is holding an Israeli soldier hostage.

24
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 21, 2006, 09:23:46 AM »
Back to Story - Help
Hezbollah 'heroes' hailed in Iran for their 'great job' by Hiedeh Farmani
Fri Jul 21, 8:06 AM ET
 


Top Iranian cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has hailed Lebanon's Hezbollah as "heroes", but rejected mounting allegations that Iran and Syria were behind the Shiite movement's conflict with Israel.

"The Hezbollah forces have done a great job and have resisted well. They and their leader, our dear brother Hassan Nasrallah, are heroes," the influential cleric and former president said in his Friday prayer sermon in Tehran.

Iran has been accused of financing Hezbollah, although the Islamic regime insists it only gives "moral" support to its fellow hardline Shiites.

"It is misleading to say that Iran and Syria are carrying this out," Rafsanjani said of Hezbollah's fight against the Jewish state. "These are careless statements."

Israel launched its offensive against Lebanon on July 12 after Hezbollah seized two Israeli soldiers.

"Destroying a country is not proportionate to capturing two hostages," Rafsanjani said, attributing the ongoing Israeli assault against Lebanon as "part of an evil US plot for the Greater Middle East".

"The United States and Britain do not allow the Security Council to order a ceasefire. The UN Secretary General (Kofi Annan) makes proposals favoured by Israel," Rafsanjani added.

But he said that "most deplorable of all" were fellow Muslim nations.

"Arab and Islamic countries... do not even bother to condemn the fact that Muslims are being butchered by non-believers. This is a historic catastrophe," he fumed.

According to state television, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also telephoned Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to call for an emergency meeting of the 57-nation Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the "activation of the Islamic world to stop these Zionist crimes".

Ahmadinejad has previously described Israel as a "tumour", and has said it should "wiped off the map" or moved as far away as Alaska.

On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert accused Iran of helping to coordinate Hezbollah's capture of two Israeli soldiers in a bid to distract attention from the controversial Iranian nuclear programme.

"The moment for the abduction owed nothing to chance, it was determined with Iran to distract the attention of the international community from the Iranian nuclear programme," Olmert said, according to army radio.

"Hezbollah is supported by Iran and Syria," British Prime Minister Tony Blair also said on Tuesday.

It is supported "by the former in weapons -- weapons, incidentally, very similar if not identical to those used against British troops in Basra -- and by the latter in many different ways and by both of them financially."

25
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 19, 2006, 01:50:06 PM »
Bowser,

After reading your post I myself felt like swatting your nose with a rolled newspaper for the blatant disrespect.

I maybe wrong but I feel you are against this war.  Many people in this "tribe" share your feelings.  Instead of throwing out insults why not share why you are against this action.

Since I have started my training with Marc I have been to the Middle East/Southwest Asia and the Horn of Africa more times than I want to count.  I am extremely gratful that Marc has taken his time and shared his personel knowledge in warcraft.  More than once it has saved my backside.

Have you been to Iraq?  If not, why not?

Myke Willis
Tulsa OK

26
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 19, 2006, 10:28:46 AM »
Witnessing the random violence of war
Hezbollah rockets strike without warning, with devastating effect
By Martin Fletcher
Correspondent
NBC News


Updated: 6:48 p.m. CT July 18, 2006
HAIFA, Israel - We started our day in a bomb shelter in the northern town of Nahariya, Israel. I asked the kids in the shelter, "Do you understand why you're here?"

"Hezbollah," they reply.

"They are bad people. They want to kill us," adds 11-year-old Tal.

His sister Michel feels safe here.

But as we leave: Panic. New rocket attacks around us.

"Katyushas," shouts one woman, then, "a bomb!" "Where are my children?" she cries.

A man points to the smoke, and we run there. Half a mile. Past another bomb shelter, more frightened people pointing the way. When we get there, cars are destroyed, gasoline flowing down the street, burning embers. Live electric cables on the ground, water mains broken. Deadly combinations.

A man is in shock. The Katyusha rocket, with its 50-pound warhead, made only a small hole in the ground. But it spread terror.

Close by, a second hit. But nobody was wounded in either attack.

One house was hit by a rocket, but everybody was inside the bomb shelter.

Then, a third rocket. Terror on the homefront. We run another half mile. A quick response can save lives. But for all three bombs, we got there before the ambulances.

One man we saw had no chance. A direct hit.

?Where are you??
People are just waiting for the ambulance to arrive. Yet again, it happened right next to a bomb shelter. Most people were inside, and that's how they stayed safe. The man we saw was clearly in the wrong place at the wrong time.

At the shelter, one lady is desperate. "Where are you? Where are you?" she cries.

A man says, "She's lost her husband."

The woman calls him.

Everybody hears a phone ring.

It's by the dead body.

Randomness sparks fear
This is just one example of the suffering Israelis and Lebanese people are feeling since fighting began with Hezbollah seven days ago.

Hezbollah fired several missiles at northern Israel Tuesday, killing the man in Nahariya and wounding several others, Israeli officials said.

Twenty-five Israelis and more than 237 Lebanese people have died so far in the conflict. The violence has displaced an estimated 500,000.

Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets at northern Israeli towns from the Lebanese border, forcing hundreds of thousands of Israelis to take cover in underground shelters or flee to the south.

The randomness of the missiles has substantially increased the fear in Israel. There is no forewarning. It could happen anytime. The bomb just falls out of the sky.

Because Nahariya is so close to the border, there is no siren warning citizens before a missile strikes. There?s nowhere to run or hide. Peple stay close to bomb shelters to stay safe.

Israeli army air strikes continue
The Israeli air force kept up its strikes across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, hitting a military base at Kfar Chima as soldiers rushed to their bomb shelters, the Lebanese military said. At least 11 soldiers were killed in an engineering unit and 35 were wounded, it said. The base is adjacent to Hezbollah strongholds often targeted by recent Israeli strikes.


Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr denounced the strike as a ?massacre,? saying the regiment?s main job was to help rebuild infrastructure. The Lebanese army has largely stayed out of the fighting, confining itself to firing anti-aircraft guns at Israeli planes. But Israeli jets have struck Lebanese army positions.

Israel did not give a reason for the strike on the base.

Nine members of the same family were killed when a bomb hit their house in the village of Aitaroun, near the border, Lebanon?s state-run news agency said, citing the police. Israeli warplanes also struck southern Beirut, and hit four trucks that Israeli officials said were bringing in weapons.

?That is intolerable terrorist activity,? said Capt. Jacob Dallal, an Israeli army spokesman. In total, Israel?s attacks Tuesday killed 27 people.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

27
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 17, 2006, 11:34:45 AM »
If Hezbollah bombs Tel Aviv.  The gloves will come off and no one will be able to control Israel.  

Israel has been looking for a reason to attack Iran.  Due to the Iranian nuclear sword rattling and the Israeli view that the rest of the world is dragging their feet to prevent Iran.  They also feel Bush is weak and unable to drum up support to help Israel.

So if Tel Aviv is lite up watch for Iran, Lebanon and maybe Syria to pay the price.

Myke

28
Politics & Religion / Lebanon
« on: July 17, 2006, 08:55:41 AM »
MSNBC.com


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Israeli troops briefly enter southern Lebanon
Overnight incursion widened air assault; Israel denies aircraft downed
The Associated Press


Updated: 9:58 a.m. CT July 17, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Israeli ground troops entered southern Lebanon to attack Hezbollah bases on the border, a government spokesman said Monday, but rapidly returned to Israel after conducting their military operations.

Hezbollah, for its part, again fired rockets at the Israeli city of Haifa, destroying a three-story building and wounding at least two people, Israeli medics said.

The medics said other victims may be trapped in the rubble of the building in Israel?s third-largest city. The attacks came one day after a Hezbollah attack on the port city killed eight people.

Israel's six-day-old offensive against Hezbollah following the capture of two Israeli soldiers has been primarily an aerial campaign, but government spokesman, Asaf Shariv, said the Israeli army chief of staff confirmed that ground troops had gone into Lebanon, if only briefly.

A military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information, said that a small group of Israeli troops had crossed into Lebanon overnight to attack a Hezbollah position, but then returned to Israel.

"There was a small operation in a very limited area overnight," the source said. "That is over."

Israel has been reluctant to send ground troops into southern Lebanon, an area that officials say has been heavily mined by Hezbollah and could lead to many Israeli casualties.

Meantime, Lebanese television stations reported an Israeli aircraft had been shot down over Lebanon and showed footage of burning debris falling from the sky. However, an Israeli security source denied the report to Reuters. "There was no such thing," the source said.

Earlier Friday, Israeli fighter bombers targeted Hezbollah's strongholds in southern Beirut and pummeled Lebanese infrastructure, firing missiles whose detonations shook the capital city.

But Hezbollah retaliated by firing rockets that flew further into Israel than ever before, with Katyusha rockets landing in the town of Atlit, six miles south of Haifa. Nobody was hurt in the Monday attack, but Hezbollah rockets had killed eight people in Haifa on Sunday.

G-8 summit
In Moscow, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called Monday for the deployment of international forces to stop the bombardment of Israel and to persuade the Jewish state to stop attacks on Hezbollah.

Speaking on the margin of the Group of Eight summit in St. Petersburg, Blair said the fighting would not stop until the conditions for a cease-fire were created. "The only way is if we have a deployment of international forces that can stop bombardment coming into Israel," he said.

The European Union said it was considering the deployment of a peacekeeping force in Lebanon.

Annan appealed to Israel to spare civilian lives and infrastructure.

A senior European Union official returned Monday from the Middle East and said he is pessimistic about the chance of a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah militants.

Javier Solana, the EU?s foreign and security chief, said the best that could be hoped for was a ?de-escalation? of the fighting. He was to brief a meeting of EU foreign ministers on his weekend talks in Beirut.


Olmert: 'Far-reaching consequences'
In overnight raids, Israeli planes and artillery guns killed 17 people and wounded at least 53 others, Lebanese security officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Israel said its planes and artillery struck 60 targets overnight. Its military sought to punish Lebanon for the barrage of 20 rockets on Haifa, the country's third largest city and one that had not been hit before the current round of fighting began on Wednesday.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed "far-reaching consequences" for the Haifa attack, Hezbollah's deadliest strike ever on Israel.

Israel accused Syria and Iran of providing Lebanese guerrillas with sophisticated weapons. Israeli officials said the missiles that hit Haifa had greater range and heavier warheads than the previous rockets which Hezbollah has fired into northern Israel. Israeli military officials said four of the missiles were the Iranian-made Fajr-3, with a 22-mile range and 200-pound payload, and far more advanced than the Katyusha rockets the guerrillas rained on northern Israel in previous attacks.

In their raids on Beirut on Monday, Israeli planes killed two people in the harbor and started a large fire, that was later extinguished. A French ship was due to arrive in the port later Monday to evacuate Europeans.

The Israeli jets also set set fire to a gas storage tank in the northern neighborhood of Dawra, and another fuel storage tank at Beirut airport, sending plumes of smoke billowing into the sky. The airport has been closed since Thursday when Israeli jets blasted its runways.

Elsewhere in Lebanon, Israeli planes again hit the Beirut to Damascus highway, which has been targeted as part of a strategy of severing Lebanon's links to the outside world. Monday's attacks struck the highway in the eastern Bekaa Valley and killed two people.

In another attack, eight Lebanese soldiers who were killed when Israeli aircraft attacked a small fishing port at Abdeh in northern Lebanon near a highway leading to Syria. Witnesses and security officials said 12 Lebanese soldiers were wounded in the attack.

An Israeli army spokesman said his force was investigating the attack because, "in principle, the Israeli military does not target Lebanese soldiers."

Hezbollah: 'Stockpiles are still full'
Hezbollah is not known to operate in northern Lebanon, but the Israeli army said it had targeted radar stations there because they had been used by Hezbollah to hit a warship on Friday. It all but accused the Lebanese military of lending its support to Hezbollah.

"The attacks ... are against radar stations used, among other things, in the attack on the Israeli missile boat, by Hezbollah in cooperation with the Lebanese military," an Israeli army spokesman told The Associated Press.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said Sunday that despite Israel's attacks, the guerrillas were "in their full strength and power" and that their "missile stockpiles are still full."

"When the Zionists behave like there are no rules and no red lines and no limits to the confrontation, it is our right to behave in the same way," Nasrallah said in a televised address, looking tired. He said Hezbollah had hit Haifa because of Israel's strikes on Lebanese civilians.

The Israeli military warned residents of south Lebanon to flee, promising heavy retaliation after the Haifa assault.

In one airstrike on southern Lebanon early Monday, an Israeli missile missed its apparent target ? a Hezbollah site ? and hit a private house, killing two people, according to security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak to the media.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

29
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 17, 2006, 06:51:08 AM »
Something I found in the New York Post
Myke

KILL, DON'T CAPTURE
By RALPH PETERS

July 10, 2006 -- THE British military defines experience as the ability to recognize a mistake the second time you make it. By that standard, we should be very experienced in dealing with captured terrorists, since we've made the same mistake again and again.

Violent Islamist extremists must be killed on the battlefield. Only in the rarest cases should they be taken prisoner. Few have serious intelligence value. And, once captured, there's no way to dispose of them.

Killing terrorists during a conflict isn't barbaric or immoral - or even illegal. We've imposed rules upon ourselves that have no historical or judicial precedent. We haven't been stymied by others, but by ourselves.

The oft-cited, seldom-read Geneva and Hague Conventions define legal combatants as those who visibly identify themselves by wearing uniforms or distinguishing insignia (the latter provision covers honorable partisans - but no badges or armbands, no protection). Those who wear civilian clothes to ambush soldiers or collect intelligence are assassins and spies - beyond the pale of law.

Traditionally, those who masquerade as civilians in order to kill legal combatants have been executed promptly, without trial. Severity, not sloppy leftist pandering, kept warfare within some decent bounds at least part of the time. But we have reached a point at which the rules apply only to us, while our enemies are permitted unrestricted freedom.

The present situation encourages our enemies to behave wantonly, while crippling our attempts to deal with terror.

Consider today's norm: A terrorist in civilian clothes can explode an IED, killing and maiming American troops or innocent civilians, then demand humane treatment if captured - and the media will step in as his champion. A disguised insurgent can shoot his rockets, throw his grenades, empty his magazines, kill and wound our troops, then, out of ammo, raise his hands and demand three hots and a cot while he invents tales of abuse.

Conferring unprecedented legal status upon these murderous transnational outlaws is unnecessary, unwise and ultimately suicidal. It exalts monsters. And it provides the anti-American pack with living vermin to anoint as victims, if not heroes.

Isn't it time we gave our critics what they're asking for? Let's solve the "unjust" imprisonment problem, once and for all. No more Guantanamos! Every terrorist mission should be a suicide mission. With our help.

We need to clarify the rules of conflict. But integrity and courage have fled Washington. Nobody will state bluntly that we're in a fight for our lives, that war is hell, and that we must do what it takes to win.

Our enemies will remind us of what's necessary, though. When we've been punished horribly enough, we'll come to our senses and do what must be done.

This isn't an argument for a murderous rampage, but its opposite. We must kill our enemies with discrimination. But we do need to kill them. A corpse is a corpse: The media's rage dissipates with the stench. But an imprisoned terrorist is a strategic liability.

Nor should we ever mistreat captured soldiers or insurgents who adhere to standing conventions. On the contrary, we should enforce policies that encourage our enemies to identify themselves according to the laws of war. Ambiguity works to their advantage, never to ours.

Our policy toward terrorists and insurgents in civilian clothing should be straightforward and public: Surrender before firing a shot or taking hostile action toward our troops, and we'll regard you as a legal prisoner. But once you've pulled a trigger, thrown a grenade or detonated a bomb, you will be killed. On the battlefield and on the spot.

Isn't that common sense? It also happens to conform to the traditional conduct of war between civilized nations. Ignorant of history, we've talked ourselves into folly.

And by the way: How have the terrorists treated the uniformed American soldiers they've captured? According to the Geneva Convention?

Sadly, even our military has been infected by political correctness. Some of my former peers will wring their hands and babble about "winning hearts and minds." But we'll never win the hearts and minds of terrorists. And if we hope to win the minds, if not the hearts, of foreign populations, we must be willing to kill the violent, lawless fraction of a fraction of a percent of the population determined to terrorize the rest.

Ravaged societies crave and need strict order. Soft policies may appear to work in the short term, but they fail overwhelmingly in the longer term. Wherever we've tried sweetness and light in Iraq, it has only worked as long as our troops were present - after which the terrorists returned and slaughtered the beneficiaries of our good intentions. If you wish to defend the many, you must be willing to kill the few.

For now, we're stuck with a situation in which the hardcore terrorists in Guantanamo are "innocent victims" even to our fair-weather allies. In Iraq, our troops capture bomb-makers only to learn they've been dumped back on the block.

It is not humane to spare fanatical murderers. It is not humane to play into our enemy's hands. And it is not humane to endanger our troops out of political correctness.

Instead of worrying over trumped-up atrocities in Iraq (the media give credence to any claim made by terrorists), we should stop apologizing and take a stand. That means firm rules for the battlefield, not Gumby-speak intended to please critics who'll never be satisfied by anything America does.

The ultimate act of humanity in the War on Terror is to win. To do so, we must kill our enemies wherever we encounter them. He who commits an act of terror forfeits every right he once possessed.

Ralph Peters' new book, "Never Quit the Fight," hits stores today.

30
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 14, 2006, 02:52:13 PM »
Syria, Iran stand to the side, watching
Mideast powers seen as behind kidnapping, using clash to their advantage
The Associated Press


Updated: 1:24 p.m. CT July 14, 2006
BEIRUT, Lebanon - Iran?s warning against any Israeli retaliation on Syria and its taunts that Israel can?t hurt Iran highlight what many see as the real hand behind Hezbollah?s capture of two Israeli soldiers.

At the White House and in Arab capitals, the belief is strong that the Mideast?s top two hard-line states, Iran and Syria, are playing a dangerous game to increase their influence. However, analysts say it could backfire and weaken Hezbollah, and by extension its two patrons.

?We would be idiots if we believed it was only about the Israeli captives,? Hazem Saghieh, a senior Lebanese columnist with the London-based Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat, told The Associated Press.

?The issue, at the end of the day, is all about Syria and Iran, and Hezbollah is just giving them more trump cards,? Saghieh said.

Wednesday?s seizure of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas came at a time of mounting tensions between the two Mideast powers and the West.

Iran is embroiled in a diplomatic fight with Europe and the U.S. over its nuclear program. Washington accuses Syria of sending insurgents to Iraq, interfering in Lebanon and hosting the Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Syria is also believed to have been behind the collapse of a deal that would have led to the release of an Israeli soldier captured by Hamas militants along Israel?s frontier with Gaza on June 25.

Iran and Syria, analysts say, believe the intensified violence will help strengthen their positions in their conflicts with the West and show they hold the key to a settlement of the Arab-Israeli issue.

The White House said Wednesday, hours after Hezbollah took the two Israelis, that it holds Iran and Syria responsible.

On Friday, French President Jacques Chirac implicitly suggested the two states might have a role in the expanding crisis, saying he has ?the feeling, if not the conviction, that Hamas and Hezbollah wouldn?t have taken the initiatives alone.?

Moderate Arab governments like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia appear to have the same belief ? though they haven?t said so outright because of a reluctance to show splits with fellow Muslim nations. Instead, it?s reflected in their mild criticisms of Israel?s air campaign in Lebanon and their indirect denunciations of Hezbollah.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Friday that Israel couldn?t hurt Iran in its campaign, declaring Israel and its Western supporters ?do not even have the power to give Iran a nasty look.?

Earlier, he called Syrian President Bashar Assad and assured him that if Israel attacks Syria ?it will be equivalent to an attack on the whole Islamic world and the regime (Israel) will face a crushing response.?

Ahmadinejad has often fanned anti-Israeli sentiment to bolster his image as a fierce opponent of the West, saying Israel should be ?wiped off the map? and casting doubt on the Nazi Holocaust.

The Iranians ?have an interest in fomenting as much trouble here as they can and think that it will benefit them somehow in terms of their ambitions in the region and ultimately how they resolve the nuclear question,? said Dennis Ross, a former U.S. Mideast envoy.

?In the case of Syria ... they feel this makes them a factor, that people have to pay attention to them,? he said.

But they may have miscalculated.

In Lebanon, there is mounting resentment against the Hezbollah action, which has killed a tourism season many had expected to be one of Lebanon?s best.

If Hezbollah fails to win a prisoner swap for the soldiers and if Israel carries out its threat to push Hezbollah away from its border, the group will be blamed for the damage to Lebanon.

?Hezbollah will definitely emerge as a loser,? said Saghieh, the columnist for Al-Hayat. ?It?s hijacked the country and is demanding the Lebanese pay with their lives for its actions.?

?The people and other political parties are going to demand that Hezbollah account for its actions since it has always claimed that its resistance offered us protection,? he said.

Paul Salem, director of the Middle East Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Hezbollah?s military presence in the south was seen by many Lebanese as a deterrent against any Israeli attack on Lebanon and even on Iran.

?But if you use your military power, you lose it,? said Salem. ?It will no longer be a deterrent.?

While Iran doesn?t have a stake in seeing the violence end, Syria might ?if they decide that it?s becoming more costly to them,? Ross said.

?That?s where the Saudis could play a major role,? by pressuring Damascus, he said.

Saudi Arabia has harshly criticized Hezbollah, without naming it directly, for escalating the situation, saying ?uncalculated adventures? could precipitate a new Middle East crisis.

31
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 12, 2006, 02:48:03 PM »
Analysis: Nasrallah's gamble


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
yoav appel, THE JERUSALEM POST  Jul. 12, 2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In killing seven soldiers, kidnapping two more and re-igniting Israel's northern border with Lebanon Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has taken a gamble that violence will quickly dissipate and negotiations on a prisoner exchange will soon begin, an expert on Lebanon said Wednesday.

Attacks against Israel, in particular kidnappings of Israelis that could lead to prisoner exchanges, boost Hizbullah's popularity in the Middle East, especially at a time that the militia group is under regional and international pressure to disarm, said Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center.

But in the eyes of many groups, some within Lebanon, who call the group a "danger to stability," Wednesday's activities may just prove them right, Zisser said.

"It's good for their prestige," Zisser said, referring to Hizbullah. Based on previous incidents, the militia group was gambling that Israel's response to Wednesday's attack would be restrained, he said.

Hizbullah forces took control of southern Lebanon when Israel withdrew from its "security zone" leaving a vacuum there in 2000. The group's leaders say they are defending Lebanon from Israel. The group also claims Lebanese sovereignty over the Shebaa Farms area, a small parcel of land Israel captured from Syria in 1967, and have said they will continue to attack Israel until the area is liberated.

But a wide-scale outbreak of violence could backfire for the group, especially if Lebanese citizens feel Hizbullah is to blame.

"These operations reinforce [Nasrallah's] position. It's an issue of image," Zisser said. Nasrallah "is a gambler. He is hoping he will benefit from these actions."

Hizbullah gained much recognition in the Arab world in 2004 when it won the release of hundreds of prisoners in Israeli jails in exchange for the bodies of three IDF soldiers it captured and one Israeli businessman. It is also widely seen as responsible for Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation.

Zisser said from Hizbullah's perspective, it's actions Wednesday were not an escalation, because it had both attempted and carried out similar operations in the past. "They don't see this as a step up, this is a step they've taken before," he said. "Hizbullah has an interest that this will end and they will begin negotiations," he added.
The group was taking into account Israel's muted responses to previous Hizbullah provocations, he said.

Within Lebanon, "Hizbullah is under a lot of pressure because ... of the many groups that want it to disarm, who say that it is a danger to stability," Zisser said.

But Iran and Syria, both considered to be enthusiastic sponsors of Hizbullah's activities, would not come to the group's aid if Israel begins wide-scale operations inside Lebanon.
The next steps in the conflict would be up to Israel, he said, which would have no choice but to respond.

Israeli military operations in Lebanon would probably work on two levels, one aimed at isolating the area near the initial attack and returning the kidnapped soldiers, and a second that would exact a high price from Lebanon for a military action initiated from within its territory, said Maj. Gen Danny Rothschild, President of the Council of Peace and Security.

An operation to return the kidnapped soldiers would involve bombing bridges and attempting to contain the area around where the abduction took place, although only within a very limited timeframe, Rothschild said. "In that sense you have a window of operation which is closing every minute," he said.

"The other layer of operation is a signal to Lebanon that there is a price," Rothschild said, adding that could be via military or political pressure. Politically, Israel could request foreign governments including the US and the European Union to pressure Lebanon for the release of the soldiers, he said.

Military options would include bombing Hizbullah's headquarters in Beirut and destroying infrastructure, he said.

Another concern is Hizbullah's military arsenal, which is said to contain around 11,000 short to mid-length missiles, some capable of reaching as far south as Hadera, about 30 miles from Tel Aviv. The missiles pose "a serious threat to civilians in Israel," Rothschild said, pointing out that the missiles are spread in a range that covers most of northern Israel.

And "nobody knows," how long an operation inside Lebanon might last, he said, acknowledging the possibility existed that Israeli forces could still be operating in southern Lebanon months from now.

32
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 12, 2006, 01:04:44 PM »
Israelis attack just 10 miles from Beirut
AP - 46 minutes ago

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Israeli warplanes and gunboats struck a Palestinian guerrilla base 10 miles south of Beirut late Wednesday, Lebanese security officials said, in the closest raid to the Lebanese capital since fighting erupted in southern Lebanon after guerrillas captured two Israeli soldiers. Warplanes flew over the Naameh base in the hills overlooking the Mediterranean, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) south of Beirut. Gunboats sailed facing the position, and explosions rang out across the area.

33
Politics & Religion / Homeland Security
« on: July 10, 2006, 09:39:51 AM »
Back to Story - Help
Ahmadinejad warns of Islamic 'explosion' By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer
Fri Jul 7, 10:33 AM ET
 


Iran's hard-line president warned Friday that continued Israeli strikes against Palestinians could lead to an Islamic "explosion" targeting Israel and its Western supporters.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told thousands of demonstrators gathered in the capital, Tehran, to condemn the strikes in the Gaza Strip that Israel's supporters could be the target of revenge by Muslims.

"They should not let things reach a point where an explosion occurs in the Islamic world," he said. "If an explosion occurs, then it won't be limited to geographical boundaries. It will also burn all those who created (Israel) over the past 60 years," he said.

Ahmadinejad once again questioned Israel's right to exist.

"This is a fake regime ... it won't be able to survive. I think the only way (forward) is that those who created it (the West) take it away themselves," the president said.

Ahmadinejad, who last year called for Israel to be "wiped off the map," has repeatedly voiced fiery rhetoric against the Jewish state.

Iran supports ? and has varying degrees of influence on ? Islamic militant groups in the region including Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

The Islamic republic also is locked in a standoff with Western nations, over its purportedly peaceful nuclear program, which the U.S. and its allies suspect is camouflage for developing an atomic bomb.

At least 24 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier have been killed in fighting since Israeli army moved into northern Gaza on Thursday.

The offensive is aimed at freeing a soldier captured by Palestinian militants on June 25, as well as destroying the increasingly powerful rockets that militants have been firing at Israel.

Hamas' representative in Iran, Abu Osamah Abdulmota, said Cpl. Gilad Shalit would only be set free in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.

"They (Israel) should know that Palestinian combatants won't release this Israeli prisoner ... (unless) Palestinian prisoners are freed from Zionist jails," he said in a pre-sermon speech before weekly Friday prayers in Tehran.

34
Politics & Religion / Homeland Security
« on: July 10, 2006, 09:37:57 AM »
CIA Reportedly Disbands Bin Laden Unit
Jul 4, 11:19 AM EDT

NEW YORK (AP) -- A CIA unit that had hunted for Osama bin Laden and his top deputies for a decade has been disbanded, according to a published report.

Citing unnamed intelligence officials, The New York Times reported Tuesday that the unit, known as "Alec Station," was shut down late last year. The decision to close the unit, which predated the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, was first reported Monday by National Public Radio.

The officials told the Times that the change reflects a view that al-Qaida's hierarchy has changed, and terrorist attacks inspired by the group are now being carried out independently of bin Laden and his second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The CIA said hunting bin Laden remains a priority, but resources needed to be directed toward other people and groups likely to initiate new attacks.

"The efforts to find Osama bin Laden are as strong as ever," said CIA spokeswoman Jennifer Millerwise Dyck. "This is an agile agency, and the decision was made to ensure greater reach and focus."

A former CIA official who once led the unit, Michael Scheuer, told the Times that its shutdown was a mistake.

"This will clearly denigrate our operations against al-Qaida," he said. "These days at the agency, bin Laden and al-Qaida appear to be treated merely as first among equals."

35
Politics & Religion / 7:7 Rememberance
« on: July 10, 2006, 09:27:10 AM »
Something from the TRC:

 
London 7/7 bomber Shahzad Tanwir from anniversary video
Location:
London, United Kingdom

Nature of Advisory/Report:
The London bombings a year ago brought to light several fundamental counterterrorism related issues affecting the United States and Europe. On the eve of the anniversary, and based on the release of a terrorist anniversary video today, the Terrorism Research Center offers three terrorism-related observations for a post-?7/7? world.

Recommendations:
None

Analyst Comments:
The Jihadist 7/7 Anniversary Video ? Tactics and Strategy

The release of an anniversary video underscores that the July 7, 2005 London subway bombings (Terrorist Incident) remain highly significant in the minds of many Islamic terrorists and further outlines a continuing strategy of global violence. In this video, bomber Shahzad Tanwir reveals the specific terms of a ?deal? into which he believes the United Kingdom, and other western countries, have unwillingly fallen whereby terrorists articulate complaints over their foreign policies with violence in the home territory. ?What you have witnessed is only the beginning of a series of attacks which will continue in number and increase in intensity until you withdraw your troops from Afghanistan and Iraq and stop your financial and military support for America and Israel,? Tanwir explains.

Accordingly, a lesson of particular importance learned by radical Islamic militants regarding the evolution of Jihadist strategy from both the London attack and the Madrid commuter train bombing a year earlier in 2004 (Terrorist Incident) is that terrorist violence could and perhaps should be designed to achieve political results rather than vengeance. Terrorist strikes may also function, as al-Qaeda (Group Profile) strategist Abdulaziz al-Muqrin would say, as ?a way to direct messages?a form of diplomacy that writes in blood and uses torn limbs as letters?? The contemporary strategy of Jihadist terrorism, like other terrorist movements before it, is evolving towards an advanced understanding of the use of violence for carefully calibrated political ends.

The London bombings and one-year anniversary video release targeting the British public and carefully articulating the rationale behind the attacks as well as the terms of any future peace clearly illustrate this principle not only to the western ?enemy? but also to the next generation of al-Qaeda terrorists.

Both the Madrid and London bombings are clear illustrations of Islamist Abu Bakr al-Najy as the ?Pay-the-Price? principle for the international community of radicals. Al-Najy?s Pay-the-Price theory dictates that nations that commit offenses against the Islamic world must be retaliated upon so that they understand clearly that they are ?paying the price? for their own policies. He writes:

Any offending action by any group of any kind requires a reaction to make the enemy pay the price of his crimes and to reconsider one thousand times over before undertaking to attack us?

This is not necessarily a new idea; Osama bin Laden has spoken of the need ?to bring the battle into the hearths of their homes,? which he did successfully with the 9/11 attacks (Terrorist Incident). However, those attacks spawned more unpopular US actions in the Middle East, whereby London and Madrid strikes demonstrate that terrorist violence can be used effectively to send a message to the European public. While the London bombings have not yet yielded the pullout of British troops from Iraq (Country Profile), a general dissatisfaction prevalent among much of the British public with the war has been commented upon in Jihadist discourse.

The idea that western countries can be made to ?pay-the-price? with terrorist violence in their homelands for their unpopular actions and policies vis-?-vis the Islamic world has become an entrenched part of modern Jihadist strategy. At least one Iraqi insurgent group has threatened to attack the US homeland. The Global Islamic Media Front, an al-Qaeda-affiliated propaganda distribution organization, threatened Italy (Country Profile) with a terrorist attack if it did not extract its troops from Iraq, and the al-Qaeda-linked GSPC in Algeria has threatened to carry out attacks in France (Country Profile) due to French support for the Bouteflicka government in Algeria.

Videos, statements, and publications aimed at enemy populaces are considered of utmost importance to communicate the terms and logic behind threats and acts of terrorist violence. Al-Najy writes, ?It is also necessary to remind the enemy of this by issuing statements, which justify any Pay-the-Price operation.? The video of the will of London bomber Mohammed Siddiq Khan provides a telling example of this; Khan communicates to his countrymen?in British-accented English?exactly why they were being attacked. ?Your democratically elected governments continuously perpetuate atrocities against my people and your support of them makes you directly responsible?? he explains as the justification to the attack.

7/7 and European Security

Apart from the recent video and its insights into Islamic terrorists' strategy, and tactics, while the vast majority of Muslims value their adopted countries, many face lingering inequalities and challenges. A portion of the Muslim minority enclaves in Europe continue to turn to a more fundamental strain of Islam, adhering to radical views and abiding by the most austere adaptations of Islam. These clusters are spread over most of Europe and are accruing a dangerous set of followers. Contributing factors to their ability to grow and develop are radical Imams who recruit and mobilize thousands of followers. Their radical messages have been protected by the West's own primary values of freedom of speech, and it is not until recently that amendments have been made to national laws to enable law enforcement to obstruct their firebrand rhetoric. Still, there are many militant groups that manage to circumvent regulations, and their messages still reach many, especially Muslim youth who are an easy target for radicalization.

Parallel to, and feeding into, al-Qaeda?s global evolution and expansion are sustained tensions within European society between Muslim and immigrant communities?including second and third generation descendants of Muslim immigrants?and the indigenous European societies in which they live. This tension is driven by perceptions of social inequality, alienation, and grievances toward the nation?s foreign and domestic policies vis-?-vis the global Muslim community. Second and third generations of Muslims compose a diverse and dispersed group, some of whom struggle with substandard living conditions in troubled, poor suburbs of major European cities (WAR Report). These groupings have become the prime focus of anti-terrorism law enforcement officials who have identified them as malleable and sometimes sympathetic to violence. Some Muslim youth seek mentorship, camaraderie, and a place to belong. The latter is critically important, as some of these youth feel displaced, and out of touch with both their countries of ancestral origin or their country of current nationality (Intel Report). While other issues?alienation, exclusion, and religious intolerance?are key components to integrating any religion or ethnicity (WAR Report), Maher Othman of the al-Hayat newspaper, focuses on humiliation as a primary radicalizing factor. These perceived injustices have the potential to encourage radicalization and rallying of politically and socially-motivated violence. In particular, this environment could easily provide the soil in which Islamist militancy and terrorism take root throughout Europe. These societal and political grievances seem to provide many of the underlying motivations for recent political violence and terrorism in Europe and the emergence of jihadist ?vanguard outpost? cells: from the Madrid and London subway bombings, to the assassinations and death threats from Islamist terrorists against public figures and politicians (Terrorist Incident) in the Netherlands (Country Profile), to the recent riots among the young descendents of some immigrants in France (WAR Report).

Further, Islamist militant and terrorist groups seek to exploit some members of the Muslim immigrant community who feel unrest or grievance to recruit and seek operational support for jihadist activities. Particularly concerning for counter-terrorism officials is the potential connections by members of these communities to Iraq and Afghanistan (Country Profile) to provide either training and experience for European-based militants to refine terrorist tradecraft or the deployment of veterans from these fronts to establish, participate in, or otherwise offer their battlefield expertise to European cells.

The United States and Europe

Finally, radicalized-autonomous Islamic terrorist cells of second and third generation immigrants who have European citizenship pose a continuing risk to European countries. They are difficult to detect by local authorities. Further, procedures designed to encourage international travel within Europe unintentionally facilitate terrorist travel as well. Schengen visas are temporary visitor visas issued to citizens of foreign countries who are required to obtain a visa before entering Europe. The issuance of the Schengen visa permits the holder to enter all member countries with the minimal restrictions. The United Kingdom (Country Profile) is not a party to the treaty; therefore, its citizens are considered foreign nationals to the European Union and must obtain a Schengen visa to enter mainland Europe.

Radicalized European terrorists of foreign descent could potentially threaten the United States (Country Profile). Passport holders from the United Kingdom can enter the United States as tourists via the visa waver program (VWP). This allows legal entry to the US for 90 days, and if a person is not in various security databases, he could go undetected. The VWP program is not limited to UK citizens; most European nations have favorable visa arrangements with the US.

In conclusion, Europe?s Muslim minorities, the corrosive influence of radical ideology, streamlined travel documents, and rapid transit across borders and oceans will continue to challenge both European and US counterterrorism forces and counterterrorism policy for the foreseeable future

36
Politics & Religion / Geo Political matters
« on: July 07, 2006, 08:03:01 AM »
Jailed Italy spy chief questioned over CIA kidnap By Emilio Parodi
 25 minutes ago
 


Prosecutors questioned the jailed deputy director of Italy's military spy agency on Friday, two days after arresting him on suspicion of involvement in the alleged CIA kidnapping of a terrorism suspect in 2003.

Marco Mancini, arrested on Wednesday, has said through his lawyer that he had nothing to do with the alleged "rendition" of Muslim cleric Hassan Mustafa Osama Nasr, also known as Abu Omar.

Prosecutors believe a CIA-led team grabbed Nasr off the street in Milan, bundled him into a van and drove him to a military base in northern Italy. He was then flown to Egypt and, Nasr says, tortured under questioning.

Twenty-six Americans, most believed to be CIA agents, also face arrest warrants for the abduction.

"I never kidnapped anyone and I never participated in the kidnapping of anyone. I'm at ease. I have faith in justice," he was quoted as saying by one of his lawyers before the questioning.

Another official from the Sismi military intelligence agency was placed under house arrest and is expected to be questioned by prosecutors next week.

Domestic spying allegations have also sprung up since the arrests. Italian media, without citing sources, reported that prosecutors believe Sismi was building secret archives on journalists, magistrates and even politicians.

That has prompted calls for a parliamentary inquiry and Italy's Interior Minister Giuliano Amato said this week that he was willing to discuss reforming the intelligence services.

The prosecutor's office in Milan declined comment.

Any proof of Italian involvement would confirm one of the chief accusations made by Council of Europe investigator Dick Marty in a report last month -- that European governments colluded with the United States in secret prisoner transfers.

"It seems difficult to me that an operation of this sort, which would involve top-level intelligence agents, happened without the political authorities knowing absolutely anything about it," Foreign Minister Massimo D'Alema said on Thursday.

In Strasbourg, the European Parliament backed up the Council of Europe's accusations in a resolution adopted on Thursday.

It said it was "implausible ... that certain European governments were not aware of the activities linked to extraordinary rendition taking place on their territory."

Nasr's lawyer said he planned to visit Italy within the next two weeks to sue Italy for 10 million euros ($12.73 million) for its alleged role in the kidnapping. He is being held in prison in Egypt without charge, his lawyer, Montasser el-Zayyat, said.

Nasr had political refugee status in Italy. But he faces a pending arrest warrant in Italy on suspicion of terrorist activity including recruiting militants for Iraq.

37
Politics & Religion / Why July 4th matters
« on: July 05, 2006, 10:50:21 AM »
Funny I just read this on Monday.  It shows what wonders a small group of men can accomplish when they put their minds to it.

Myke Willis

38
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 03, 2006, 08:52:20 AM »
Iraqis say US exit plan should await security By Scott Peterson and Awadh al-Taee
Tue Jun 27, 4:00 AM ET
 


News of a possible US military reduction in Iraq, beginning as early as this fall, is being met in Baghdad with the deep skepticism of a war-weary people who have witnessed many other American exit plans go unfulfilled.

Most Iraqis want an end to the 127,000-strong US presence, which they consider an occupation. But they are concerned, too, that Iraqi forces, while growing in size and capability, still can't cope with the insurgency and sectarian killings that have killed tens of thousands of Iraqis.

"I want the Americans to leave as soon as possible, so the reason to attack Iraqi troops will end, because insurgents are always accusing us of being agents and supporting these foreign troops," a first lieutenant of Iraq's Interior Ministry said Monday, while commanding a checkpoint on Baghdad's airport road.

"Before they leave, they should destroy the [sectarian] militias and make sure the security elements are strong," says the officer. "I don't want them to leave completely; they should stay in bases. But if they don't lower their numbers, we will pressure them to do so."

The apparent plan, initially reported by The New York Times on Sunday, projects that US combat brigades in Iraq, of 3,500 troops each, would be cut from 14 to five or six by the end of next year. An initial two brigades now slated to go home this September would not be replaced, according to the Times.

But, says Ismael Zayer, editor of Baghdad's Sabah al-Jadiid newspaper, "We need to face the fact that if security ... does not improve in a very crucial way, there is nothing to talk about.

"We have the impression that a battle of Baghdad has begun already now," says Mr. Zayer. "Pulling out small troops or something bigger is good, it's welcome, but it has to be part of a ... genuine plan; not propaganda."

US officials have "emphasized that any withdrawals would depend on continued progress" and strength of Iraqi units ? the same caveat that has undermined every previous pullout plan ? and that the newly formed Iraqi government had yet to be consulted, the Times noted.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday unveiled a 24-point plan for national reconciliation, and called on Iraqi forces to take control of growing slices of Iraq, to enable US-led coalition troops to leave. He gave no timeline for a US pullout.

"When they finish supplying us Humvees, tanks, cannons, and airplanes like their army, [US forces] should leave today, before tomorrow," says Captain Mohammad, of the Iraqi Army, who would not give his full name. "We originally did not even want to smell their perfume, or [for them to] leave any footprint in Iraq."

US forces are "not more courageous than us, and they do not care more about our homes than we do," asserts Mohammad, though newly trained Iraqi units have disintegrated in past years when ordered to quell uprisings.

Poll results in late March from the US-funded International Republican Institute (IRI) indicate that, at least relative to security, withdrawal of US troops is not a top demand. When asked to list priorities for the new government, 48 percent said security should rank first; more than 85 percent listed security as one of the top three most important issues.

Among more than 2,800 Iraqis polled, withdrawal of coalition forces from Iraq ranked a distant third, the top priority of just 9 percent of Iraqis. In the IRI poll, withdrawal was 1 point ahead of fixing the economy and job creation.

In some cases, US lawmakers have been as skeptical as Iraqis. Democrats in Congress were criticized for trying to vote on an exit timeline for Iraq last week, during heated debate in both houses.

"The [Defense] Department's drawn up plans at all times, but I think it would be wrong now to say that this is the plan we are going to operate under," Sen. John Warner (news, bio, voting record) (R) of Virginia said on FOX News Sunday, when asked about US General George Casey's reported plan.

Monday, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow said, "I would caution very strongly against everybody thinking, 'Well, they're going to pull two brigades out.'

"Maybe they will, maybe they won't," he said. "It really does depend upon a whole series of things that we cannot at this juncture predict. I would characterize this more in terms of scenario building and we'll see how it proceeds."

According to the Associated Press, Mr. Snow said the general has "a number of scenarios in mind for differing situations on the ground," that would depend on conditions on the ground.

Regardless of any pullout strategy, US Marine units in Iraq's western Anbar Province ? where, along with Baghdad and central Iraq, the insurgency has been most violent and widespread ? have no plans to reduce numbers, the Times reported on Monday.

Lt. Gen. John Sattler, who commands Marines across the Middle East, told The New York Times Monday that he could foresee "no reductions" in US troop strength in Anbar "at least through next summer, because of the restiveness there. Al Anbar is going to be one of the last provinces to be stabilized."

In fact, US commanders in late May ordered a reserve force of 1,500 from Kuwait to Anbar for a short tour of perhaps four months to deal with the "challenge" in that province. Already, one-fifth of all US troops in Iraq are deployed in Anbar.

"When the Americans leave, the militias will eat us," predicts Khalil Mohammad, an air conditioning specialist in Baghdad. "The hands that came here to help us ? the Americans ? should finish their work and leave.... They should increase the power of the law, and should not leave completely but stay in bases."

One US military assessment last April predicted that it would take two to five years of continual US backup before Iraqi security forces could stand on their own. One senior Iraqi official spoke in April about an understanding with US officials that troop numbers might dip below 100,000 by the end of 2006, with an eventual total pullout by mid-2008.

But sectarian killing and a six-month security vacuum between mid-December elections and formation of new government last month has complicated efforts to build up Iraqi units. According to the Brooking Institution's Iraq Index, the total number of security forces is 265,600.

"The situation steadily deteriorated more quickly than Iraqi forces could be brought online. Ethnic and sectarian fighting vastly broadened that area where security was a major problem," writes Anthony Cordesman, a veteran defense and Iraq analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, in a draft assessment made public last week.

"These issues were not addressed in coalition and Iraqi reporting. Claims that Iraqi forces could take control of large areas of battle space in Iraq had never been honest or realistic," writes Mr. Cordesman. "Performance was so mixed that US forces had to constantly intervene, embedded advisors were often critical to Iraqi success, and Iraqi forces remained heavily dependent on US [firepower]."

The results are felt on the ground in Baghdad, where a two-week-old security clampdown has barely dented insurgent attacks. Gunmen took on a checkpoint during a curfew Friday, sparking street battles.

"We are not sure that the development of Iraqi security forces will be strong or sufficient enough in the future, because the indicators are almost all negative," says editor Zayer, comparing the sectarian divisions in Iraq to those that defined civil war in Lebanon for 15 years, from the mid-1970s. "If the Americans don't manage to find a solution, and remedies for this deterioration, then there is no hope."

"I am afraid there is a trend we notice in the American media ... with the position of the administration, the White House, the Pentagon, which tries to put a rosy view of the situation which is not fact, not honest, [and] not the reality we have now," adds Zayer, about reports of US withdrawal. "There is a sort of propaganda-like line; I don't like it. It doesn't mean anything."

39
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: July 03, 2006, 08:43:46 AM »
June 28, 2006:
Saudi Arabia detains 43 suspected militants (back to list)    
International Analysis Alert Level: High


Saudi Arabia

Saudi security forces have detained 43 suspected Islamist militants, including two Somalis, an Ethiopian and an Iraqi, the interior ministry said Saturday after a deadly gunbattle in the capital. The ministry said the arrests had been made in different parts of the oil-rich kingdom since May 9. Two arrests followed a firefight in Riyadh Friday in which six suspected Al-Qaeda militants and a policeman were killed. Full Story

TRC Analysis:
The recent arrests and killings of more than 40 militants in Saudi Arabia (Country Profile) is continuing testament of the capabilities of the Saudi security forces, who have hunted, pursued, killed, and captured militants in the Kingdom with such a dogged persistence that the once fearsome al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (Group Profile) has been unable to pull off a major attack in almost two years. At the same time, the repetitive emergence of new militants in the country shows that Saudi Arabia still has much reform to do of its educational, cultural, and religious environment. The existence of more than 40 people in the Kingdom who were planning terrorist attacks also demonstrates that the country is still very much at risk of another terrorist attack. In addition to the militants themselves, Saudi security secured weapons, documents, and money being prepared to carry out an attack.

The presence of foreigners in these militant networks in Saudi Arabia demonstrates the extent to which the Kingdom is seen as a legitimate target of the international Jihad, not just a target for local dissidents. The absorption of foreigners into militant networks is dangerous for Saudi Arabia, as foreigners are more difficult to identify and intercept in terror networks in other countries. The vast traffic of Muslim foreigners into Saudi Arabia, not only during the pilgrimage season but for jobs that Saudi citizens refuse to work, makes the population difficult to police, and their ill treatment by the Saudi government can fuel tendencies toward militancy and the desire for revenge.

Also notable of those arrested in this recent campaign is that they have not been characterized as part of the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula organization. They seem to have been examples of distinct, spontaneously emerging terrorist cells that were not recruited by the existing, prevailing terrorist organization in the Kingdom. While the al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula organization is thought to have been severely weakened by the campaign against it, the emergence of new, separate terrorist groups or cells demonstrates that Saudi Arabia will continue to suffer from terrorist threats even if the al-Qaeda organization within the Kingdom is eradicated.

A parallel of this dynamic has occurred recently with the media wing of the Mujahideen in Saudi Arabia. The "Sawt al-Jihad" media arm of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has nearly ceased all production, but recently a new media company, called "al-Bisha'ir," has announced its existence and put out its first two productions. Al-Bisha'ir has announced that it is not part of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula but is concerned with the plight of the Mujahideen in the Kingdom generally.

By Rebecca Givner-Forbes, TRC Staff

40
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: June 26, 2006, 10:00:03 AM »
Hundreds of chemical weapons found in Iraq: US intelligence by Charlotte Raab
Thu Jun 22, 6:39 AM ET
 


US-led coalition forces in Iraq have found some 500 chemical weapons since the March 2003 invasion, Republican lawmakers said, citing an intelligence report.

"Since 2003, Coalition forces have recovered approximately 500 weapons munitions which contain degraded mustard or sarin nerve agent," said an overview of the report unveiled by Senator Rick Santorum and Peter Hoekstra, head of the intelligence committee of the House of Representatives.

"Despite many efforts to locate and destroy Iraq's pre-Gulf war chemical munitions, filled and unfilled pre-Gulf war chemical munitions are assessed to still exist," it says.

The lawmakers cited the report as validation of the US rationale for the war, and stressed the ongoing danger they pose.

"This is an incredibly -- in my mind -- significant finding. The idea that, as my colleagues have repeatedly said in this debate on the other side of the aisle, that there are no weapons of mass destruction, is in fact false," Santorum said.

A Pentagon official who confirmed the findings said that all the weapons were pre-1991 vintage munitions "in such a degraded state they couldn't be used for what they are designed for."

The official, who asked not to be identified, said most were 155 millimeter artillery projectiles with mustard gas or sarin of varying degrees of potency.

"We're destroying them where we find them in the normal manner," the official said.

In 2004, the US army said it had found a shell containing sarin gas and another shell containing mustard gas, and a Pentagon official said at the time the discovery showed there were likely more.

The intelligence overview published Wednesday stressed that the pre-Gulf War Iraqi chemical weapons could be sold on the black market.

"Use of these weapons by terrorists or insurgent groups would have implications for coalition forces in Iraq. The possibility of use outside Iraq cannot be ruled out," it said.

Santorum said the two-month-old report was prepared by the National Ground Intelligence Center, a military intelligence agency that started looking for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq when the Iraq Survey Group stopped doing so in late 2004.

Last year the head of Iraq Survey Group, Charles Duelfer, said that insurgents in Iraq had already used old chemical weapons in their attacks.

Nevertheless, "the impression that the Iraqi Survey Group left with the American people was they didn't find anything," Hoekstra said.

"But this says: Weapons have been discovered; more weapons exist. And they state that Iraq was not a WMD-free zone, that there are continuing threats from the materials that are or may still be in Iraq," he said.

Asked just how dangerous the weapons are, Hoekstra said: "One or two of these shells, the materials inside of these, transferred outside of the country, can be very, very deadly."

The report said that the purity of the chemical agents -- and thus their potency -- depends on "many factors, including the manufacturing process, potential additives, and environmental storage conditions."

"While agents degrade over time, chemical warfare agents remain hazardous and potentially lethal," it said.

Reporters questioned the lawmakers as to why the Bush administration had not played up the report to boost their case for continued warfare in Iraq.

"The administration has been very clear that they want to look forward," Santorum said. "They felt it was not their role to go back and fight previous discussions."

Fear that Saddam Hussein might use his alleged arsenal of chemical and biological weapons was a reason US officials gave for launching the March 2003 invasion of Iraq.

41
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: June 26, 2006, 09:48:51 AM »
A North Korean Missile Test: Implications for the U.S. and the Region
by Balbina Y. Hwang, Ph.D.
WebMemo #1134

June 20, 2006 |   |  

 

According to international intelligence reports, for the last five weeks, North Korea has been steadily moving towards a test launch of the Taepodong 2, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range up to 6,000 kilometers ? enough to reach Alaska. Satellite intelligence reveals that Pyongyang has loaded booster rockets onto a launch pad in Musuduan-ri, in the North Hamkyong Province of northeastern North Korea, and moved fuel tanks in preparation for fueling. This action is in violation of North Korea?s international agreements and appears designed to goad the United States into direct bilateral talks. The U.S. must not take the bait. No good will come from rewarding North Korea for its belligerent behavior.

A missile test is problematic for the region and the United States because it would end North Korea?s 1999 self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests ? a moratorium that was reiterated in the Pyongyang Declaration when Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in September 2002. The test would spell further trouble for the stalled Six-Party negotiations over the North?s nuclear ambitions. More broadly, a test would raise questions about the future stability and security of the region and North Korea?s enduring role as the region?s troublemaker.

If the missile test does occur, the Bush Administration must not succumb to pressure to enter into in bilateral talks with North Korea. The United States has been clear that all diplomatic negotiations must go through the Six-Party framework involving North Korea, the United States, South Korea, Russia, Japan, and China. The Bush Administration should make clear that aggressive behavior by the North Koreans will not cause the United States to alter its position.

Why Test?
North Korea last tested a long-range missile in August 1998, when it fired a Taepodong 1, with a range of 2,000 km, over northern Japan. That test took many by surprise and confirmed that North Korean capabilities had progressed beyond previous estimates. A launch of the Taepodong 2 would put North?s Korea?s military efforts back into the spotlight and demonstrate that it now has a missile with the range to reach the U.S. mainland.

Knowledge of the Taepodong 2 is limited, in part because the system has never been tested. A 2001 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate forecast that a three-stage version of the missile could reach North America carrying a sizable payload. It could be fitted with a chemical or biological warhead but probably not a nuclear payload, because North Korea has likely not yet developed the capability to miniaturize a nuclear weapon.

The United States ? along with Japan, South Korea, and Australia ? has urged North Korea to abandon its plans to test the missile, stating clearly that a launch would be dangerous and provocative and damaging to North Korean interests. But Pyongyang may have reached the opposite conclusion. From a North Korean standpoint, a missile test launch would further three goals:



Pyongyang?s strategic objective is to raise the stakes for the Six-Party talks, which have stalled since North Korea?s refusal to return to the table last November. With little incentive for Washington to relent on its long-standing insistence that Pyongyang must first agree to return to the talks without preconditions and the global perception that Iran has become Washington?s top priority, a missile test would raise the level of tension and bring focus back to North Korea. Further, a test launch would put yet another issue on the negotiating table and, Pyongyang hopes, distract attention from the core issue of its nuclear weapons program.


North Korea wants to test years of investment in missile research and development. Ultimately, the only way to prove that a missile works is to test it. A test would not only serve as a stern warning to the region about the strength of North Korea?s ballistic missile capabilities, but also would enhance the legitimacy of North Korean missiles in the weapons proliferation marketplace. In part due to the U.S. crackdown on North Korea?s illicit financial activities, a major source of income of the Kim Jong Il regime, Pyongyang may turn its attention elsewhere, such as the lucrative weapons and missile markets. The missile test preparations are being conducted in open view of foreign satellites; Pyongyang is clearly showing off.


Domestic pressure may also be at play. A missile test would demonstrate the military?s supremacy in national policymaking. A launch could also be a tremendous morale boost for the North Korean public. The regime has been testing engines for a new missile since at least 2002, and a successful test would bolster Kim?s claims that he is developing advanced technology for his people. This would have the added benefit of boosting nationalism as a counterweight to increased international pressures on the regime.
Regional Response
Is Pyongyang fully prepared for the negative repercussions of a launch? Japan is deeply concerned about a launch that it would consider a direct threat to its security. North Korea?s Taepodong 1 test over Japan in 1998 was a wake-up call that led Tokyo to cooperate with Washington on a missile defense system. A new launch would not only bolster Japanese efforts to erect defensive capabilities against North Korea but would also likely spur the U.S. Congress to increase its support for missile defense efforts. Furthermore, such aggression from North Korea could play a role in selecting the future leadership of Japan. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is preparing to step down in September, and polls indicate that Shinzo Abe, who has taken a strong stance against North Korea and China, trails moderate candidate Yasuo Fukuda. A North Korean missile test could aid Abe?s campaign, reducing the possibility of a diplomatic reconciliation between North Korea and Japan.

Seoul?s reaction is more uncertain. A North Korean missile test would further undermine President Roh Moo Hyun?s policy of engagement with Pyongyang, which is already under pressure due to the North?s lack of reciprocity. A test launch would attract criticism both domestically and internationally. Former President and Nobel laureate Kim Dae-Jung would have to cancel his scheduled trip to Pyongyang on June 27th. Yet, it is unclear if a missile launch would be enough to turn public opinion against engagement with the North. While critical voices will grow stronger, a new missile test will be perceived much the same as the previous one was in 1998: an abstract concern that does not directly threaten South Koreans.

North Korea may hope that South Koreans will focus on strongly negative U.S. and Japanese reactions rather than the North Korean threat, thereby driving a wedge between Seoul and Washington. There is precedent: The 1998 missile launch did not slow down Kim Dae Jung?s ?Sunshine Policy.?

Options
Unfortunately, the range of policy options for the international community should Pyongyang proceed with its test are limited. Washington and Tokyo already have strict economic sanctions in place, and there is little additional economic leverage they could exercise. They can, and likely will, continue to pressure the North Korean regime by aggressively targeting its illicit activities, but unless China and South Korea decide to halt their economic assistance to the North, this will have limited effect. A military option ? such as shooting down the North Korean missile with responding interceptors ? should be kept on the table. In the event of a launch, the U.S. should bring North Korea?s aggression before the United Nations Security Council. While UN sanctions would have minimal practical impact, they would carry important symbolic value.

The United States and its partners in the Six-Party process must not succumb to North Korea?s manipulation and brinksmanship. Undoubtedly, one of Pyongyang?s goals is to put pressure on Washington to re-engage in direct bilateral talks to resolve not only the missile issue, but its nuclear programs. North Korea has some reason to believe this will work: After its missile launch in 1998, the Clinton Administration engaged in concerted high-level bilateral efforts with Pyongyang over its missile programs ? to no avail. The Bush Administration, therefore, should continue to insist that the diplomatic process must occur within the context of the established multilateral format. It should not allow aggressive North Korean actions to alter this.

The five parties engaging with North Korea agree that a North Korean missile test would be a dangerous act and only isolate Pyongyang further from the rest of the international community. Ironically, such isolation is an important step towards successful conclusion of the Six-Party process.

 

Balbina Y. Hwang, Ph.D., is Senior Policy Analyst for Northeast Asia in the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.

42
Politics & Religion / Geo Political matters
« on: June 26, 2006, 09:38:59 AM »
Order Code RS21968
Updated June 15, 2006

CRS Report for Congress

Received through the CRS Web

Iraq: Elections, Government, and Constitution
Kenneth Katzman
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division

Summary

Elections in 2005 for a transition government (January 30, 2005), a permanent
constitution (October 15), and a permanent (four year) government (December 15)
were concluded despite insurgent violence, progressively attracting Sunni participation.
On May 20, a unity government was formed as U.S. officials had been urging, but it is
not clear that the new government will be able to reduce ongoing violence. (See CRS
Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman.)

After Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) deposed Saddam Hussein in April 2003, the
Bush Administration linked the end of U.S. military occupation to the adoption of a new
constitution and national elections, tasks expected to take two years. Prominent Iraqis
persuaded the Administration to accelerate the process, and sovereignty was given to an
appointed government on June 28, 2004, with a government and a permanent constitution
to be voted on thereafter, as stipulated in a Transitional Administrative Law (TAL, signed
March 8, 2004 [http://cpa-iraq.org/government/TAL.html]. Elections were held on
January 30, 2005, for a 275-seat transitional National Assembly; a provincial assembly
in each of Iraq?s 18 provinces (41 seats each; 51 for Baghdad); and a Kurdistan regional
assembly (111 seats). The Assembly chose a transitional ?presidency council? (a
president and two deputies), a prime minister with executive power, and a cabinet. The
transitional Assembly was to draft a constitution by August 15, 2005, to be put to a
referendum by October 15, 2005. The draft could be vetoed with a two-thirds majority
of the votes in any three provinces. A permanent government, elected by December 15,
2005, was to take office by December 31, 2005. If the constitution was defeated, the
December 15 elections would be for another transitional National Assembly (which
would re-draft a constitution).

January 30 Elections

The January 30, 2005, elections, run by the ?Independent Electoral Commission of
Iraq? (IECI), were conducted by proportional representation (closed list); voters chose
among ?political entities? (a party, a coalition of parties, or individuals). Seats in the
Assembly and the provincial assemblies were allocated in proportion to a slate?s showing;
any entity receiving at least 1/275 of the vote (about 31,000 votes) won a seat. A female

Congressional Research Service ? The Library of Congress


CRS-2


candidate occupied every third position on electoral lists in order to meet the TAL?s goal
for at least 25% female membership. A total of 111 entities were on the National
Assembly ballot: 9 multi-party coalitions, 75 single parties, and 27 individual persons.
The 111 entities contained over 7,000 candidates. About 9,000 candidates, organized into
party slates, ran in provincial and Kurdish elections.

In the January 30 (and December 15) elections, Iraqis abroad were eligible to vote.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) was tapped to run the ?out-of-country
voting? (OCV) program. OCV took place in Australia, Canada, Denmark, France,
Germany, Iran, Jordan, Sweden, Syria, Turkey, UAE, Britain, Netherlands, and the United
States. (See [http://www.iraqocv.org].) About 275,000 Iraqi expatriates (dual citizens
and anyone whose father was Iraqi) registered, and about 90% of them voted (in January).

The Iraqi government budgeted about $250 million for the January elections, of
which $130 million was offset by international donors, including about $40 million from
the European Union. Out of $21 billion in U.S. reconstruction funds, the United States
provided $40 million to improve IECI capacity; $42.5 million for Iraqi monitoring; and
$40 million for political party development, through the International Republican Institute
and National Democratic Institute. OCV cost an additional $92 million, of which $11
million was for the U.S. component, but no U.S. funds were spent for OCV.

Violence was less than anticipated; insurgents conducted about 300 attacks, but no
polling stations were overrun. Polling centers were guarded by the 130,000 members of
Iraq?s security forces, with the 150,000 U.S. forces in Iraq available for backup. Two
days prior to election day, vehicle traffic was banned, Iraq?s borders were closed, and
polling locations were confirmed. Security measures were similar for the October 15 and
December 15 votes, although with more Iraqi troops and police trained (about 215,000)
than in January. Polling places were staffed by about 200,000 Iraqis in all three elections
in 2005. International monitoring was limited to 25 observers (in the January elections)
and some European parliament members and others (December elections).

Competition and Results. The Iraqi groups that took the most active interest in
the January elections were those best positioned: Shiite Islamist parties, the Kurds, and
established secular parties. The results of this and the December 2005 election are shown
in the table below. The most prominent slate was the Shiite Islamist ?United Iraqi
Alliance? (UIA), consisting of 228 candidates from 22 parties, primarily the Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Da?wa Party. The first
candidate on this slate was SCIRI leader Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim; Da?wa leader Ibrahim
al-Jafari was number seven. Even though radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
denounced the election as a U.S.-led process, 14 of his supporters were on the UIA slate;
eight of these won seats. The two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) offered a joint 165-candidate list.
Interim Prime Minister Iyad al-Allawi filed a six-party, 233-candidate ?Iraqi List? led by
his Iraqi National Accord (INA) party.1

Sunni Arabs (20% of the overall population), perceiving electoral defeat and
insurgent intimidation, mostly boycotted and won only 17 seats spread over several lists.

1 See CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman.


CRS-3


The relatively moderate Sunni ?Iraqi Islamic Party? (IIP) filed a 275-seat slate, but it
withdrew in December 2004. The hard-line Iraqi Muslim Scholars Association (MSA),
said to be close to the insurgents, called for a Sunni boycott.

After the election, factional bargaining over governmental posts and disagreements
over Kurdish demands for substantial autonomy delayed formation of the government.
During April and May, the factions formed a government that U.S. officials said was not
sufficiently inclusive of Sunnis, even though it had a Sunni (Hajim al-Hassani) as
Assembly speaker; a Sunni deputy president (Ghazi al-Yawar); a Sunni deputy prime
minister (Abd al-Mutlak al-Jabburi); a Sunni Defense Minister (Sadoun Dulaymi); and
five other Sunni ministers. Most major positions were dominated by Shiites and Kurds,
such as PUK leader Jalal Talabani as president and Da?wa leader Ibrahim al-Jafari as
Prime Minister; SCIRI?s Adel Abd al-Mahdi was second deputy president. In provincial
elections, the Kurds won about 60% of the seats in Tamim (Kirkuk) province (26 out of
41 seats), strengthening the Kurds? efforts to gain control of the province.

Permanent Constitution and Referendum

The next step in the transition process was the drafting of a permanent constitution.
On May 10, the National Assembly appointed a 55-member drafting committee, chaired
by SCIRI activist Humam al-Hammoudi. The committee included only two Sunni Arabs,
prompting Sunni resentment, and 15 Sunnis (and one member of the small Sabian
community) were later added as full committee members, with 10 more as advisors.
Missing the August 15 deadline to produce a draft, the talks produced a document on
August 28 that included some compromises sought by Sunnis ? the Shiites and Kurds
declared it final. The Kurds achieved a major goal; Article 136 set December 31, 2007,
as a deadline for resettling Kurds in Kirkuk and holding a referendum on whether Kirkuk
will join the Kurdish region.

The draft (Article 2)2 designated Islam ?a main source? of legislation and said no
law can contradict the ?established? provisions of Islam. Article 39 implied that families
could choose which courts to use to adjudicate family issues such as divorce and
inheritance, and Article 34 made only primary education mandatory. These provisions
provoked opposition from women who fear that the males of their families will decide to
use Sharia (Islamic law) courts for family issues and limit girls? education. The 25%
electoral goal for women was retained (Article 47). Article 89 said that federal supreme
court will include experts in Islamic law, as well as judges and experts in civil law.

The remaining controversy centered on the draft?s provision allowing two or more
provinces together to form new autonomous ?regions.? Article 117 allowed each ?region?
to organize internal security forces, which would legitimize the fielding of sectarian
(presumably Shiite) militias, in addition to the Kurds? peshmerga (allowed by the TAL).
Article 109 requires the central government to distribute oil and gas revenues from
?current fields? in proportion to population, implying that the regions might ultimately
control revenues from new energy discoveries. These provisions raised Sunni alarms,
because their areas have few known oil or gas deposits. Sunni negotiators, including
chief negotiator Saleh al-Mutlak of the National Dialogue Council opposed the draft on

2 [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201450.html].


CRS-4


these grounds. Article 62 establishes a ?Federation Council, a second chamber of a size
with powers to be determined, presumably to review legislation affecting regions.

After further negotiations, on September 19, 2005, the National Assembly approved
a ?final? draft, with some Sunni proposals, such as a statement that Iraq has always been
part of the Arab League. However, no major changes to the provisions on new regions
were made and Sunnis registered in large numbers (70%-85% in some Sunni cities) to try
to defeat the constitution. The United Nations printed and distributed 5 million copies.
The continued Sunni opposition prompted U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad
to mediate an agreement (October 11) between Kurdish and Shiite leaders and a major
Sunni party, the Iraqi Islamic Party, providing for (Article 137) a panel to convene after
the installation of a post-December 15 election government and, within four months,
propose a bloc of amendments. The amendments require a majority Assembly vote of
approval and, within another two months, would be put to a public referendum under the
same rules as the October 15, 2005 referendum. As of its seating on March 16, 2006, the
new parliament was expected to begin work on amending the constitution, as provided
in Article 137. It has not done so, to date, and might not do so until September 2006,
according to observers. Some believe that the Sunnis are not pressing the amendment
process because they fear that the UIA will not agree to major amendments, and the
Sunnis do not want to force a political confrontation.

The October 15 referendum was relatively peaceful. Results, released October 25,
were 78.6% in favor and 21.4% against, nationwide. The Sunni provinces of Anbar and
Salahuddin had a 97% and 82% ?no? vote, respectively. Mostly Sunni Nineveh province
voted 55% ?no,? and Diyala, believed mostly Sunni, had a 51% ?yes? vote. The draft
passed because only two provinces, not three, voted ?no? by a 2/3 majority. The
Administration praised the vote as evidence that Sunnis support the political process.

December 15, 2005, Elections

In the December 15 elections, under a formula designed to enhance Sunni
representation, each province contributed a pre-determined number of seats to the new
?Council of Representatives.? Of the 275-seat body, 230 seats were allocated this way,
and there were 45 ?compensatory? seats for entities that did not win provincial seats but
garnered votes nationwide, or which would have won additional seats had the election
constituency been the whole nation. A total of 361 political ?entities? registered: 19 of
them were coalition slates (comprising 125 different political parties), and 342 were other
?entities? (parties or individual persons). About 7,500 candidates spanned all entities.

Most notably for U.S. policy, major Sunni slates competed. Most prominent was
the three-party ?Iraqi Concord Front,? comprising the IIP, the National Dialogue
Council, and the Iraqi People?s General Council. The UIA slate formally included Sadr?s
faction as well as other hard line Shiite parties Fadila (Virtue) and Iraqi Hizballah.
Ahmad Chalabi?s Iraqi National Congress ran separately. Former Prime Minister Iyad
al-Allawi?s mostly secular 15-party ?Iraqi National? slate was broader than his January
list, incorporating not only his Iraq National Accord but also several smaller secular
parties. The Kurdish alliance slate was little changed from January.

Violence was minor (about 30 incidents) as Sunni insurgents, supporting greater
Sunni representation in parliament, facilitated the voting. However, results suggest that


CRS-5


voters chose lists representing their sects and regions, not secular lists. The table gives
results that were court-certified on February 10, 2006. According to the constitution:
within 15 days of certification (by February 25), the Council of Representatives was to
convene to select a speaker and two deputy speakers. The Council first convened on
March 16, but without selecting these or any other positions. After choosing a speaker
the Council was to select (no deadline specified, but a thirty-day deadline for the choice
after subsequent Council elections), a presidency council for Iraq (President and two
deputies). Those choices required a 2/3 vote of the Council. Within another 15 days, the
presidency council (by consensus of its three officials) was to designate the ?nominee of
the [Council] bloc with the largest number? as Prime Minister, the post that has executive
power. Within another 30 days, the prime minister designate was to name a cabinet for
approval by majority vote of the Council.

With 181 seats combined (nearly two thirds of the Council), the UIA and the Kurds
were well positioned to continue their governing alliance. However, their alliance frayed
when the Kurds, Sunnis, and Alawi block protested the UIA?s February 12 nomination
of Jafari to continue as Prime Minister. In March 2006, attempting to promote comity,
Iraqi leaders agreed to a U.S. proposal to form extra-constitutional economic and security
councils including all factions. On April 20, Jafari agreed to step aside, breaking the
logjam. On April 22, the Council of Representatives approved Talabani to continue as
president, Abd al-Mahdi to continue as a deputy president, and another deputy president,
Concord Front/IIP leader Tariq al-Hashimi. National Dialogue Front figure Mahmoud
Mashhadani was chosen Council speaker, with deputies Khalid al-Attiya (UIA/Shiite) and
Arif Tayfour, a KDP activist (continuing in that post). Senior Da?wa Party figure Jawad
al-Maliki was named Prime Minister. Maliki, who was in exile in Syria during Saddam?s
rule, is considered a Shiite hardliner, although he now professes non-sectarianism.

New Cabinet. Amid U.S. and other congratulations, Maliki named and won
approval of a 39 member cabinet (including deputy prime ministers) on May 20, one day
prior to his 30-day deadline. However, three key cabinet slots (Defense, Interior, and
National Security) were not filled permanently until June 8 because of factional
infighting. Many believe that Iran has substantial influence over the Iraqi government
because of the presence of several officials who belong to Shiite Islamist organizations
that have had close ties to Iran.

Of the 37 ministerial posts, a total of eight are Sunnis; seven are Kurds; twenty-one
are Shiites; and one is Christian. Kurdish official Barham Salih and Sunni Arab Salam
al-Zubaie are deputy prime ministers. Four ministers are women. KDP activist Hoshyar
Zebari remained Foreign Minister. The Defense Minister is Gen. Abdul Qadir
Mohammad Jasim al-Mifarji, a Sunni who had been expelled from the Iraqi military and
imprisoned for criticizing the invasion of Kuwait in 1990. More recently, he commanded
operations of the post-Saddam Iraqi Army in western Iraq. The Interior Minister is Jawad
al-Bulani, a Shiite who has been associated with a number of Shiite Islamist trends,
including Sadr?s faction, and the Fadila (Virtue) party that is prominent in Basra. The
Minister for National Security is Sherwan al-Waili, a Shiite who is from a different
faction of the Da?wa Party. He has served since 2003 as head of the provincial council
in the city of Nassiriyah and as adviser in the national security ministry. The Minister of
Trade and Minister of Education are from this Da?wa faction. Reflecting Shiite strength:


CRS-6


! Sadr followers are Ministers of Health, of Transportation, and of
Agriculture. Another is Minister of State for Tourism and Antiquities.

! From SCIRI, the most pro-Iranian party, Adel Abd al-Mahdi, is one of
two Vice Presidents. Bayan Jabr is Finance Minister, moving there from
Minister of Interior. The Minister of Municipalities and Public Works
is from the Badr Organization, SCIRI?s militia wing.

! Several officials in the new government are from other pro-Iranian Shiite
organizations. Deputy parliament speaker Khalid al-Attiyah spent time
in exile in Iran. The Minister of Civil Society Affairs is from the Islamic
Action Organization, a Shiite Islamist grouping based in Karbala. A
minister of state (no portfolio) is from Iraqi Hizbollah, which represents
former Shiite guerrilla fighters against Saddam?s regime based in the city
of Amarah. The Minister of Oil (Hussein Shahristani) is an aide to Shiite
leader Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The Minister of Electricity and the
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs are independent UIA Shiites.

Table 1. Election Results (January and December)

Slate/Party
Seats
(Jan. 05)
Seats
(Dec. 05)
UIA (Shiite Islamist); Sadr formally joined list for Dec. vote
(Of the 128: SCIRI~30; Da?wa~28; Sadr~30; Fadila~15; others~25) 140 128
Kurdistan Alliance (PUK and KDP) 75 53
Iraqis List (secular, Allawi); added some mostly Sunni parties for Dec. vote 40 25
Iraq Concord Front (Sunni). Main Sunni bloc; not in Jan. vote ? 44
Dialogue National Iraqi Front (Sunni, Saleh al-Mutlak) Not in Jan. vote ? 11
Iraqi National Congress (Chalabi). Was part of UIA list in Jan. 05 vote ? 0
Iraqis Party (Yawar, Sunni); Part of Allawi list in Dec. vote 5 ?
Iraqi Turkomen Front (Turkomen, Kirkuk-based, pro-Turkey) 3 1
National Independent and Elites (Jan)/Risalyun (Mission, Dec) pro-Sadr 3 2
People?s Union (Communist, non-sectarian); on Allawi list in Dec. vote 2 ?
Kurdistan Islamic Group (Islamist Kurd) 2 5
Islamic Action (Shiite Islamist, Karbala) 2 0
National Democratic Alliance (non-sectarian, secular) 1 ?
Rafidain National List (Assyrian Christian) 1 1
Liberation and Reconciliation Gathering (Sunni, secular) 1 3
Ummah (Nation) Party. (Secular, Mithal al-Alusi, former INC activist) 0 1
Yazidi list (small Kurdish, heterodox religious minority in northern Iraq) ? 1

Number of polling places: January: 5,200; December: 6,200.
Eligible voters: 14 million in January election; 15 million in October referendum and December.
Turnout: January: 58% (8.5 million votes)/ October: 66% (10 million)/ December: 75% (12 million).



43
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 24, 2006, 03:09:38 PM »
Milt,

An infidel is a "non believer" one is not of the Islamic faith.  Just like a heathen is not of the Christian faith.

Myke Willis

44
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 24, 2006, 11:18:40 AM »
My apologizes if this is fragmented but I am heading out the door for a training session. This is what I have been exposed to.  It is not my intention to degrade or insult anyone.  I spoke of breaking bread only to make a point where I have seen and taken part or a culture.  The good and the brutial.

The reality is that the mainstream Muslim population is not going to speak out.  For whatever their reasoning.  Why? Basicly in the extremeist point of view the people that support my enemy are my enemy.

For whatever internal troubles they have to take the "Infidel" side is against how they believe.  Unless it benifits them in some way.

Here is a example of what I mean.  In the Muslim community of the Middle East there is no love lost when it comes to the Palestinians. The Palestinians are in the eyes of most just a little a head of Israel. They could care less if they get a home land.  But as long as they are willing to kill Israelis then they will receive all the help and support they want.

When the U.S. decides to pull our troops out of Iraq within six months to a year there will be civil war.  Why, because you cannot force feed democracy to a country that has no concept of what it  really is.  You have to want to earn these freedoms for yourself and it is too hard for those who are use to being told what to do, what to think.  Look at the former USSR, they are not flourishing without the comminist regime.  Most would like the old ways to return.

Myke Willis

45
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 23, 2006, 12:20:28 PM »
The best way to understand the nature of Islam and Muslims is to read the Qur'an.  Then study the life of Muhammed.

Bryan, I must admit I have very little contact with the American Muslim community.  My personnal experience comes from my dealings with Muslims in the Middle East, Eastern Africa and Southwest Asia.  

I have said before I have broken bread with many families and found them to be nothing but gracious.  I have personally seen the good and
experienced the bad. In these dealings I have found that when it comes to "believers and non believers" that the believers will look the other way and mind their own business as to avoid conflict with fellow Muslims.

Muslim speaking against Muslim, Muslim killing Muslim in strictly prohibited.  The terrorist kill their Muslim brothers becaus they see them as working with the Great Satan so they are viewed as tratiors to Islam.

This conflict has been around since the Crusades.  Will it get any better?
Only when both sides decide to stop trying to convert to other to their ways of thinking.

Myke Willis

46
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: June 23, 2006, 07:45:55 AM »
U.S.: New bomb plot aimed to 'kill all the devils'
Court documents: Black Muslim group thought informant was with al-Qaida

Charles Rex Arbogast / AP file
Chicago's Sears Tower, the tallest highrise on the city's skyline, was allegedly the focus of a bomb plot, officials said Thursday after seven men were arrested in Miami.
 
MIAMI - Following a warehouse raid and their arrests a day earlier, seven young men were charged Friday with conspiring to work with al-Qaida to blow up Chicago's Sears Tower and federal buildings. Court documents obtained by NBC News said the ringleader boasted of wanting to "kill all the devils we can" in a mission "just as good or greater than 9/11."

The seven individuals indicted by a federal grand jury were taken into custody Thursday when authorities swarmed a Miami warehouse that had been used by a Black Muslim group.

According to the court documents, a man identified as Narseal Batiste was the recruiter who wanted to organize "soldiers" to build an Islamic army to wage holy war.

The others were identified as Patrick Abraham, Stanley Grant Phanor, Naudimar Herrera, Burson Augustin, Lyglenson Lemorin, and Rotschild Augustine.

Batiste allegedly met last December in a hotel room with someone posing as a representative of al-Qaida ? someone law enforcement officials say was actually an agent of a country friendly to the United States.

The indictment described the alleged scheme this way:

Batiste initially asked for "boots, uniforms, machine guns, radios, and vehicles," as well as $50,000 in cash, to help him build an "Islamic Army to wage jihad.?

'Good or greater than 9/11'
In February, Batiste told the foreign agent that he wanted him and his men to attend an al-Qaida training camp so as to "kill all the devils we can" in a mission he said "would be just as good or greater than 9/11" ? beginning with the destruction of the Sears Tower.

At a meeting on March 16 at a warehouse in the Miami area, the seven defendants discussed a plot to bomb FBI buildings in five cities, and each swore an oath of loyalty to al-Qaida before the purported al-Qaida representative.

The person they believed to be an al-Qaida representative gave Batiste a video camera, which Batiste said he would use to film the North Miami Beach FBI building, the indictment said. At a March 26 meeting, Batiste and Augustin provided the foreign agent with photographs of the FBI building, as well as video of other Miami government buildings, and discussed the plot to bomb the FBI building.

But on May 24, the indictment said, Batiste told the foreign agent that he was experiencing delays ?because of various problems within his organization.? Batiste said he wanted to continue his mission and his relationship with al-Qaida nonetheless, the document said.

The informant's ability to track the group from its early stages had neutralized the threat.

?There is no imminent threat to Miami or any other area because of these operations,? said Richard Kolko, spokesman for FBI headquarters in Washington. He declined further comment.

One source said the suspects had been trying to buy weapons and other things needed to carry out attacks. Ammonium nitrate, a fertilizer compound that can also be used as an explosive, was reportedly among the items.

U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is scheduled to hold a news conference Friday to discuss the arrests. A news conference also will be held in Miami.

'Like military boot camp'
Neighbors who lived nearby said young men, who appeared to be in their teens and 20s, slept in the warehouse, running what looked like a militaristic group. They appeared brainwashed, some said.

?They would come out late at night and exercise,? said Tashawn Rose. ?It seemed like a military boot camp that they were working on there. They would come out and stand guard.?

Residents living near the warehouse said the men taken into custody described themselves as Muslims and had tried to recruit young people to join their group. Rose said they tried to recruit her younger brother and nephew for a karate class.

She said she talked to one of the men about a month ago. ?They seemed brainwashed,? she said. ?They said they had given their lives to Allah.?

Residents said FBI agents spent several hours in the neighborhood showing photos of the suspects and seeking information. They said the men had lived in the area for about a year.

Benjamin Williams, 17, said the group sometimes had young children with them. At times, he added, the men ?would cover their faces. Sometimes they would wear things on their heads, like turbans.?

A man who called himself Brother Corey and claimed to be a member of the group told CNN late Thursday that the individuals worship at the building and call themselves the ?Seas of David.?

He dismissed any suggestion that the men were contemplating violence. ?We are peaceful,? he said. He added that the group has ?soldiers? in Chicago but is not a terrorist organization.

Xavier Smith, who attends the nearby United Christian Outreach, said the men would often come by the church and ask for water.

?They were very private,? said Smith.

Sears Tower
Managers of the Sears Tower, the nation?s tallest building, said in a statement they speak regularly with the FBI and local law enforcement about terror threats and that Thursday ?was no exception.?

Security at the 110-floor Sears Tower, a Chicago landmark, was ramped up after the Sept. 11 attacks, and the 103rd-floor skydeck was closed for about a month and a half.

?Law enforcement continues to tell us that they have never found evidence of a credible terrorism threat against Sears Tower that has gone beyond criminal discussions,? the statement said.

The warehouse owner declined comment. ?I heard the news just like you guys,? George F. Mobassaleh told the AP. ?I can?t talk to you.?

South Florida has been linked to several terrorism investigations in the past. Several of the Sept. 11 hijackers lived and trained in the area, including ringleader Mohamed Atta and several plots by Cuban Americans against the government of Fidel Castro have also been based in Miami.

Jose Padilla, a former resident once accused of plotting to detonate a radioactive bomb in the country, is charged in Miami with being part of a North American terror support cell to al-Qaida and other violent Islamic extremist organizations. He has been in federal custody since 2002 and is scheduled for trial in September.

Padilla was originally designated an "enemy combatant" and held for three years without charge by the Bush administration shortly after his May 2002 arrest at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport.

NBC News? Pete Williams, Jim Popkin, Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

47
Politics & Religion / WW3
« on: June 19, 2006, 08:26:15 AM »
BITING THE HAND THAT FED THEM:
KURDISH INSURGENCY TESTS IRANIAN CONVENTIONAL MILITARY POWER

Ali M. Koknar*
April 26, 2006

??I wanna bite the hand that feeds me.
I wanna bite that hand so badly.
I want to make them wish they'd never seen me??
Radio Radio
from the album: This Year's Model
By Elvis Costello
1978

There is much speculation in Washington these days about whether Iran will respond to a
preemptive strike by the United States and/or Israel in order to damage or destroy its nuclear
weapons program. The deficiencies in the human intelligence collection and analysis capability of
the United States resulting in the confusion about Iran?s war fighting ability is a major factor in
this current speculation. American experts are finding it hard to gauge Iran?s military strength and
effectiveness. One way to measure Iran?s might with some degree of accuracy is to study how it
has been fighting recently. Iran has not fought a conventional campaign since the end of the Iran-
Iraq War in 1988, almost two decades ago. Since then, Iran?s military industrial complex and
manpower evolved significantly. Some of this new technology and training has been put into
action by the Tehran regime in a limited extent at Iran?s periphery, which offers a window to
peek at the Iranian military under actual combat conditions. Except for the two proxy campaigns
in Lebanon and Iraq which Iranian military and intelligence are engaged in, Iran?s only direct
military action on its enemies has materialized in the form of a few surface-to-surface missile
attacks on Mojahedin-e-Khalq camps in Iraq in the late 1990s and its ongoing conflict with the
Kurdish terrorist organization PKK (Partiya Karkaren Kurdistan-Workers? Party of Kurdistan)
inside Iran and in Northern Iraq at present, which this analysis is about.

Starting in 1979, the Islamic regime continued the Shah?s policy of attacking the armed
ethnic Kurds (as represented by the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan and Komala, the
Marxists) with conventional military forces. These clashes continued during the Iran-Iraq War,
until the mid 1990s and resulted in the deaths of around 10 thousand Kurdish insurgents, 50
thousand Kurdish civilians and thousands of troops from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC-Pasdaran). A de facto cease-fire came into effect in 1995. Paradoxically, the Islamic
regime in Tehran harbored and supported the Maoist PKK against Turkey in the 1980s but
especially after the removal of PKK?s leader from Syria in 1998. The Iranian intelligence service
(Ettelaat-SAVAMA) managed the PKK presence inside Iran and the infiltration of PKK terrorists
into Turkey. Interestingly enough, during the same period of time Ettelaat supported the activities
of the Islamist Turkish Hezbollah, an ethnically Kurdish organization which organized itself in

* Ali M. Koknar, a private security consultant in Washington, DC, specializing in counterterrorism and international
organized crime, is an Associate of the Terrorism Research Center. His e-mail is akoknar@aol.com

the 1980s to oppose the PKK in southeast Turkey. In fact, the Turkish intelligence services
believe that the Ettelaat engineered a truce between the PKK and the Turkish-Kurdish Hezbollah
in the late 1990s. At the peak of its relations with the Iranian regime in 1995, the PKK maintained
about 1,200 of its members at around 50 locations in Iran. The Ettelaat even used the PKK
against other Kurdish groups in Iran such as Komala, eight leaders of which the PKK ambushed
and killed in June 1998. Fed up with Iran?s harboring the PKK, Turkey sent a direct message to
Tehran in July 1999, when Turkish F16s attacking a PKK camp in Iran, accidentally bombed a
Pasdaran base, killing a Pasdar officer and four Pasdaran troops and wounding ten. A new
Turkish government elected at the end of 2002, developed a d?tente with Tehran in 2003, making
it possible for Ankara to press Tehran into cutting off its support to the PKK.

With its charismatic leader, Abdullah Ocalan captured by Turkey in 1999, the PKK
withdrew about 3,000 of its 4,000 field cadres from Turkey and Iran to its dozen or so camps
strewn along the Qandil mountain range which straddles the Iran-Iraq border across from Turkey.
The PKK used the period between 1999 and 2003 to reorganize its command structure, recruit
new members and especially after Saddam?s quick defeat in April 2003, to acquire ex-Iraqi Army
weapons and explosives. They also set up a front, Part?ya J?yane Azad?ya Kurdistan (Kurdistan
Free Life Party-PJAK) in Iran (heretofore referred to as simply ?PKK? for practicality). Despite
sporting its own leader, Haji Ahmedi, its operations are conducted under orders from PKK?s
strongman, Murat Karayilan, and like other PKK teams operating in Turkey, its armed cadres are
ethnic Kurds recruited from Iran, Iraq and Turkey. The PKK operates camps housing about 500
of these on Mount Asos, which is on the Iranian side of the Qandil Range.

In 2004, from their Asos bases the PKK terrorist started operating in northwestern Iran,
near the Iranian towns of Selmas, Mahabad, Serdest, Bane, P?ranshahr, Mer?wan, Sine, and
Hewraman. By July that year, the Pasdaran started mounting battalion-level operations in the area
against the PKK, to total about eight such operations by the end of the year. In 2004, the PKK
claimed killing about 20 Pasdaran troops, but did not admit its own casualties as a result of a
brigade-level Pasdaran operation near Xoye/Urumiyeh in October, during which the Pasdaran
deployed Katyusha artillery rockets.

A Pasdaran brigade, accompanied by hundreds of Basej paramilitaries, conducted sweep
operations in the sector between the Iraqi border and the town of Piranshahr in late May and early
June 2005 using AH-1J Cobra attack helicopters, but did not report any PKK terrorists killed or
captured. As they did in Turkey, the PKK made attempts to foment a Kurdish uprising in Iran in
2005 to affect the outcome of the presidential elections. As if in response to the Pasdaran/Basej
sweep a month earlier, in July, these attempts materialized in the ethnically Kurdish populated
Mahabad and clashes between armed PKK terrorists, their civilian Kurdish supporters and the
Pasdaran and Basej resulted in the declaration of martial law and curfew. The PKK claimed that
they had killed 16 Pasdaran and Basej for a loss of four of their own during the July clashes.

The seasonal nature of contacts between the PKK and Iranian security forces was
somewhat altered in 2006 as the PKK mounted attacks in Iran during the snowy winter months
just as they did inside Turkey. In February, there were about a dozen PKK and Pasdaran on each
side killed in action and at least a dozen wounded. In March the Pasdaran staged heliborne
assaults killing at least 2 PKK terrorists. The PKK claimed they killed seven Pasdaran.

As the weather improved in April, the Pasdaran launched a division-level operation against the PKK for
the first time, deploying towed howitzers. The PKK also claimed that the Iranian Air Force
fighters bombed one of its camps near Xinira next to the Haji Umran Iran-Iraq border crossing.
The Pasdaran also hit a PKK camp near Sidakan, about 50 miles north of the Iraqi city of Arbil
and about 6 miles from the Iranian border, with Katyusha artillery rockets. These attacks killed at
least three PKK terrorists (as admitted by them) and probably up to a dozen more. The PKK
claimed that they engaged the Pasdaran along the border and killed six and wounded eight, which
the Pasdaran did not admit. The Pasdaran did admit however, that they lost 100 troops between
2003 and 2006 in contacts with the PKK. The PKK admits losing no less than 50 terrorists in
contacts with the Pasdaran between July 2005 and March 2006.

The cyclical nature of the PKK operations to date in Iran suggest that the coming months
will bring more contacts with Iranian security forces. Based on the escalation of the conflict in the
last three years, it is plausible that the size of the Iranian troop movements will be large (from
battalion-level in 2004 to division-level in 2006) and will involve heavy weapons such as artillery
pieces and may also be conducted as combined-arms operations with the participation of regular
Iranian Army units in addition to the Pasdaran. These developments will offer a unique
opportunity to observe the Iranian military in action using its inventory against a real enemy, as
opposed to the recent war games they conducted in the Persian Gulf during which reverse-
engineered Russian weapons systems were showcased. Iran?s success or failure against an
insurgent force of no more than a battalion or two will be indicative of its conventional
warfighting ability against a larger opposing force, such as the United States Army or Marines.

48
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 16, 2006, 04:13:00 PM »
Bryan,

I am glad that you have found a way of life that has brought you inner peace.  I too have found peace in the ways of the my grandfathers (Apache).  

First, As a Vet I want to thank you for your service to our country.  I too have spent many a cold night sitting on some isolated air field waiting to go to some place unknown. I have also spent many nights in the Middle East doing the biding of Uncle Sam.  As a soldier/contractor it is not my place to make policy.    

I feel the hostility coming from your post.  Maybe the cartoon was in poor taste. It is not my place to defend someone elses work.  But as you can see the actions of 9/11 have certain effects on different people.  I maybe wrong, and please correct me if I am,  but it seems you take issue with certain freedoms that we have. I can understand this to a certain extent coming from a people that the U.S. commited genocide against.  That made everything we believed and praticed "against the law".  Forced us to pray to their God and forced us to learn their english.  Know after saying this I will get to the point.

I will  share a few things that I have a hard time with that your Islamic brothers/sisters have done.  Burning and cursing our flag, hanging and setting our public figures in effigy, flying planes into buildings full of innocent civilians, boarding buses full of women and childern and blowing themselves up and watching such actions of cowards being celebrated, ect...

Marc, I will apologize to you and the rest if I have overstepped the "be friends at the end of the day"  rule.

Myke Willis

49
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 15, 2006, 08:39:20 AM »
Sitbatan,

Christians and Muslims are alike after all.  :lol:

Myke Willis

50
Politics & Religion / Invitation to dialog to Muslims
« on: June 13, 2006, 12:06:38 PM »
Salam Sitbatan,

When I hear what can we do about thugs, that it is up to Governments to take care of the problem.  I would agree to a point if it where a local problem.   The terrorist activities are not under any one Government.  But under God.  So IMHO if the moderate and peace loving Clerics took a more active stance against car bombing, the killing of inocent people then maybe more young people would listen.  But by their silence then they let the religion be controled by madmen filled with hate.  We did not want this holy war but it was thrust upon us.  We reacted in self defense.

Like most Mulims we Americians want to work, go to school and raise our kids.  But as Americans it is our duty to get involved no matter if we are for or against.

It is good that something like the FMA can at least bring a small group of people together.

Myke Willis

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