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Messages - ya

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4
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 25, 2024, 04:19:31 AM »
For months now, Martin Armstrong has been beating the war drums. May 7 2024 is a critical and long forecasted date, based on his proprietary Socrates arrays. A lot of things are lining up, together with some other currency data. It takes some experience to read these arrays. the rouble is also getting stronger.



6
Posted by Fiat hawk on X

"Buckle up.  Things are about to get wild.

One thing I rarely see discussed about the game theory of #Bitcoin is that the incentives are aligned in such a way that the game speeds up over time.

During the initial phases of the game, #Bitcoin was a strange foreign idea in cyberspace. It was risky, it was uncertain, it was hard to buy, and hard to store. Only the outcasts, the explorers, and the free thinkers joined during the early wave, and they were handsomely rewarded for doing so.

Now, the talk I frequently hear is that the best gains are behind us. What's the point? I missed Bitcoin. I should have bought it when it was cheap. Etc...

While it is true that the biggest percentage gains are behind us, the biggest and fastest adoption is just around the corner. Also, even if you have dismissed #Bitcoin, the cost of ignoring it will soon become unbearable.

The game theory will soon switch from greed to fear, and for the first time ever, fear will drive #Bitcoin higher and higher instead of lower and lower.

Why is that?

The bitcoin network grows stronger and becomes more valuable with every person that joins.

At the same time, the fiat monetary system becomes weaker with every person that leaves.

While adoption was still tiny, the cost of ignoring Bitcoin was negligible. You missed out on the gains, but otherwise, it was not important. Soon, however, that will no longer be the case. Everyone knows that fiat money is being debased at an accelerating pace. With every person that exits into Bitcoin, it means that those left with fiat will now have to carry the burden of those that have left. In other words, the cost of staying with fiat will exponentially increase over time.

Think about it. Does the national debt decrease if people leave the US? No. The same is true with monetary networks. Unfortunately for those holding fiat, it is a debt-based system, and the people opting out with #Bitcoin no longer have to care or worry about that debt.

This is why the best money always wins, and why there can only be one winner. I also believe that's why the fastest growth in Bitcoin adoption is just ahead of us. It will go from a trickle, to a rush, and end in a stampede.

At some point, you won't be able to exchange fiat for #Bitcoin at any price, and all of your models will be destroyed."

7
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 24, 2024, 05:00:03 AM »
Somebody on Twitter.

"One of the questions people are asking is why the IS attacked in Moscow and why now. First, it is not since yesterday. In the case of the Russian Federation, its years of repression in the Caucasus, its intervention in Syria, and its role in Central Asia are among the reasons Russia has been targeted. This news rarely makes the Western web pages, but there are frequent reports in the Russian media of "anti-terrorist" operations by Russian security forces in the Caucasus regions, Chechnya and Ingushetia. Most recently, the FSB conducted 13-hour-long gun battles with armed men in a town in Ingushetia who have no connection to the IS but are anti-government and attacked police posts.

Interestingly, unlike the attack in Moscow, in that case in Ingushetia, Russian authorities announced that they had eliminated IS fighters. Now that the heart of the empire has been struck by IS, things look different. The Kremlin will not admit that security has been compromised, that the group that the Russian army claimed to have destroyed in the ruins of Palmyra is not at the gates of Moscow but has already broken through.

There is hardly a message from the IS as ignored as the one on the Moscow attack. The Russian government has launched a narrative that Ukraine was behind the attack, and the narrative has been building over the past twenty-four hours. Although the organization released footage of the attack itself - very brutal footage showing the brutality of the attack - the Russian Federation is sticking to its Ukrainian thesis and will use it repeatedly. In the meantime, Russia remains exposed to more terrorist attacks due to its inability to deter them."

8
I am not so smart, just read smart people :-D but thanks.

BTW, India is undergoing general elections in May 2024. Modi is expected to sweep the polls by the largest number of seats ever. The west is still not recognizing the Modi juggernaut, for they continue to diss him. Here's a typical election song for Modi, one of many. Modi has pushed Indian nationalism and Hinduism. Many of the visuals are from holy places that Modi visits, or the huge crowds that come to see Modi.
https://youtu.be/nndR8gHEsBw

9
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 23, 2024, 12:24:43 PM »
UKr will get blamed.. ISIS bombing Russia does not make sense. Russia is a major supporter of the muslim world at the moment. From Hamas to Saudis to Iran.
Obama was visiting London a few days ago..probably carrying a message.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1769821700198105301

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Politics & Religion / Re: European matters
« on: March 23, 2024, 09:17:00 AM »
"“Europe is a digital colony of the United States… an economic colony of China… a demographic colony of Africa… and is about to become a religious colony of Islam.”

11
Politics & Religion / Re: Inidan nuke capable missile tests
« on: March 23, 2024, 08:33:46 AM »
India Adds Firepower to a Missile Program Focused on China
India tested a missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, the latest advance in its homegrown Agni-V program
By
Rajesh Roy
Follow
March 11, 2024 1:49 pm ET

NEW DELHI—India has successfully conducted the maiden flight test of an indigenously developed ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, a development that enhances the country’s nuclear deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan.

The intercontinental ballistic missile called Agni-5, which in Sanskrit means “fire,” is equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or MIRV technology, that allows it to launch multiple attacks in one go across different locations, according to two senior serving government officials.


India has been developing and testing its Agni series of missiles for more than a decade as it looks to catch up with China’s military strength. It first tested the Agni-5 series in 2012, and since then has been adding technological advancements to it and retesting. The country has said its Agni-5 program is in line with India’s stated policy to have a credible minimum deterrence and its commitment to no first-use of nuclear weapons.

In 2019, India successfully tested a missile capable of destroying a satellite in space, technology also held by only a few powers.

The surface-to-surface Agni missile is capable of striking targets of more than 5,000 kilometers, or 3,100 miles, with a high degree of accuracy. That trails the capabilities of China’s longest-range missiles.

Still, this puts Beijing and its neighborhood within the direct target range of India’s Strategic Forces Command, the dedicated tri-services nuclear force under the direct control of the prime minister, said New Delhi-based defense analyst N.C. Bipindra.

The MIRV-capable ballistic missile can target multiple strategic sites about 1,500 kilometers, or 930 miles apart, and “that is a significant nuclear strike capability for any nation to have,” he said. He added that Agni-5 development was largely focused on China, which New Delhi now views as the most serious military threat to India.


So why is MIRV capability important in the Indian context: China has an advantage in the number of nuclear warheads over India and also has access to larger kiloton nuclear bombs. MIRV capability neutralizes this edge, because each missile can carry multiple war heads (3-10), many of which will serve as decoy missiles. No body can be sure of shooting down tens of nuclear capable missiles. Expect more such tests, possibly also from submarine based missiles. The Agni V missiles brings all parts of China under missile reach. No place to hide.

12
Lets discuss a bit, China's problems with India.

1. Northern Land Borders: Only India and Bhutan have unsettled borders with China in the North. They dont want to settle the land borders, so that India stays distracted in the mountains and not focus on the Indian Ocean region, where lies major vulnerability for the Chinese.
2. China's Indian Ocean vulnerability Most are aware of the Malacca strait choke point, from where China's shipping lanes can be choked, all export/import of goods  mostly comes to a stop, if that were to be blocked.

However, there are other choke points.
a) As you come out of the Malacca straits, Chinese ships have to pass to the south of the Andaman Nicobar islands (which belong to India). Its a major naval base (Andaman Nicobar command). So called 10 degree channel.

b) Recently, Maldives (muslim state on the south west of Sri Lanka)), tried to kick out India and replace them with China, forgetting that they are completely reliable on India for their economy, tourists and even fresh water!. No doubt a lot of money exchanged hands after their new President was elected. China thought they gained a major foothold in the Indian Ocean (no base as yet). Problem is that India activated a new naval base in the Minicoy islands (India owned) between Minicoy and Maldives, the so called 8 degree channel. this creates a new choke point.

c) Further north of Minicoy are major naval bases in the Lakshdweep islands (India owned), so called 9 degree channel, which is another choke point.

d) Look south of the Maldives, there lies Diego Garcia a part of the Chagos Islands, a major US base.

e) Even if Chinese subs were to cross south of these choke points, India has additional listening stations in Madagascar, Seychelles, Mauritius etc, These islands have many Indian origin people due to historical trade routes and relations are very close with India.

China is in no position to exert force in the Indian Ocean, unless they are dealing with small nations such as Phillipines, Vietnam etc.

13
Interesting Interview by Martin Armstrong. I think he is really good with his understanding of global markets, but he is not in favor of BTC. I think understanding of BTC eludes him. Just to be on the safe side, I plan to lighten my BTC position sometime this cycle, but keep some for another 10 years or more.

https://www.smartinvestor.de/2023/03/22/es-scheint-als-wolle-jeder-krieg-2/

14
Politics & Religion / Re: ya clarifies India's intentions
« on: March 23, 2024, 04:21:03 AM »
"The media has created a false narrative that India wants to dedollarize via BRICS. This is all fake news. Except Russia and China, no one wants to dedollarize. Infact  the BRICS group is not coming out with a new currency, inspite the propaganda by the media. Infact, India has been clear, there is no BRICS currency. To know the facts, search for any Indian govt official saying that there will be a BRICS currency. The only one who can destroy the $ is the USA itself.!"

wow

why is the media making this up?
is this CCP propaganda?

or from other sources other political reasons?

The gold bugs are the main group pushing the BRICS currency narrative. Since the US keeps printing $, deficits are 34 Trillion and rising at the rate of a Trillion $ every 100 days. In other words, the value of the US $ is declining and foreigners holding US $ see the value of their holdings decline. The US dollar is very liquid, no other currency can provide that liquidity for world trade, bond holdings etc. The $ is king, the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry. Having said that, the US $ is losing influence and there is an increasing trend to do bilateral trade in local currencies, but even this does not work well beyond a certain point. eg Russia sells India oil, India pays back in Rupees (due to US sanctions on Russia), but now Russia has billions of Rupees and does not know what to do with them since the Rupee is not a $ convertible currency (think of Chuck-e-Cheese tokens), everyone wants $ or a $ convertible currency. Now Russia is being forced to invest the Rupees in India !.

China is the other big holder of US Treasuries and they are dumping them as fast as they can (see a chart of the Chinese long term holdings of US Treasuries). US wants to go to war with China, why would China hold any US Treasuries  and support the currency of an "enemy" nation.

The US is abusing its reserve currency (printing into oblivion), freezing Russian assets and pushing to give them to Ukr (this is against International law), kicking Russia out of SWIFT the international currency exchange system (international trust is lost, now the Chinese and Iranians have built their own system).

The push by the US to use frozen Russian assets for rebuilding Ukr is a smart geopolitical move by USA, this will destroy Europe! and make it a US vassal state. The frozen assets are in European banks, and international law does not allow unilateral seizure of assets, so if Europeans being broke themselves, were to give them to Ukr, they would be breaking the law and the Russian counter-retaliation would be against European assets held in Russia, i.e. Europe ends up losing its assets in Russia. This is a bit like the US blowing up the Nordstream pipeline, supposedly to hurt Russia, but it actually hurts Europe more since their economies cannot function without cheap Russian oil and now Germany is in recession. A smart way to destroy the European economy, so that Europe behaves and remains under US influence. Can you fault India for trying to stay non-aligned ?.

15
" What India craves is consistent pro India policy from the US. The US is not sure who they want to support, its fickle. On and off the US starts to support Pak or China to exert pressure on India, even though the US needs India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific."

if the US was consistently pro India would Modi reciprocate

I mean India is part of the BRIC nations trying to undermine the US dollar.

seems like Pakistan is a frenemy, we are trying to balance our interests with both ways.
Kind of like our relationship with Turkey .

The media has created a false narrative that India wants to dedollarize via BRICS. This is all fake news. Except Russia and China, no one wants to dedollarize. Infact  the BRICS group is not coming out with a new currency, inspite the propaganda by the media. Infact, India has been clear, there is no BRICS currency. To know the facts, search for any Indian govt official saying that there will be a BRICS currency. The only one who can destroy the $ is the USA itself.!

16
Politics & Religion / Modi in Bhutan
« on: March 22, 2024, 04:52:11 AM »
See the warm welcome that Modi got when he visited Bhutan. Its just a few minutes long. The dance in the last few minutes is an Indian dance from Modi's home state, danced by Bhutanis. This is why China can never take over Bhutan, or even Nepal (inspite the communist regime in Nepal at the moment).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1771102165530034187

P.S. He was awarded Bhutan's highest civilian award, this visit. Modi keeps getting highest national awards from several muslim/arab countries, even France.

17
What India craves is consistent pro India policy from the US. The US is not sure who they want to support, its fickle. On and off the US starts to support Pak or China to exert pressure on India, even though the US needs India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

With Trump relations were excellent, one should see the welcome that Trump got when he visited India. Trump never supported Pak and was very pro India.

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Politics & Religion / Denmark: Relative Violent Crime Rates by Nation
« on: March 22, 2024, 04:40:26 AM »

19
Those following BTC, most of the decline is due to the massive selling by GBTC. Yesterday was 7000 BTC and day before 9600 BTC. Infact, GBTC CEO came out and said, at some point, they will reduce the fees. GBTC has lost half its stack so far. Not clear what is happening or why they are doing this to themselves, probably related to the shenanigans of Barry Silbert/DCG. DCG is bankrupt and they need the high fees to pay off that debt.

Having said that historically, previous 2 halvings have had similar volatility at this stage of the cycle, so this is not outside the ordinary. I still think July-Oct will be a an excellent period, thats what my interpretation of the tea leaves suggest.

21
EBITDA: Great explanation, for people less familiar with it.
BTC should never be shorted, or purchased on leverage. That way, you wont lose your position. people with money place market orders to catch these kind of moves.

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Politics & Religion / EBITDA
« on: March 19, 2024, 04:13:47 AM »

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Politics & Religion / US-India
« on: March 17, 2024, 01:12:03 PM »
Biden admin has not been a good ally. They keep doing the things that pi$$ off Indians.

- Biden backed out of India's Republic day parade at short notice, Macron filled in. This is a parade watched by nearly all of India.
- US keeps supporting well known Khalistani terrorists, such as Pannu, the Canadian American, to keep the pressure on India and so that India behaves!.
- India recently passed a law the CAA which allows non-muslim minorities from neighboring countries to seek citizenship in India, since after the partition of India beyween India and Pak they were left behind on the wrong side. Typically, these are hindus, sikhs, parsis, christians etc, all except muslims since muslims are not oppressed in Pak, Afghanistan, Bangladesh. Ofcourse the US passed comments on it as being oppressive to muslims. This is considered ridiculous, since both Bangladesh and Pak were created on the basis of religion, so that muslims could be safe in their own homeland !. The intent of the law is to save the oppressed non-muslims living in muslim lands.

A recent exchange between Garcetti US Ambassador and Jai Shanker Foreign Minister of India.

US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti : "US can't give up on principles. US is concerned about CAA & closely monitoring it."

EAM S Jaishankar : "Then, I have my principles too 🔥🔥. One of my principles is an obligation to the people wronged during partition." “You remove historical contexts & make an argument, and say oh I have principles and you don't have principles" ⚡ "You reacting as if partition of India never happened" - EAM S Jaishankar roared

Here's an Indian journalist asking about the matter. The hypocrisy of the west is obvious. Fast tracking of citizenships to various minorities and ethnicities has been done multiple times in the USA and Europe. https://twitter.com/i/status/1769433752340730264

- Keeps pressurizing India by holding back approved weapons purchases.

Trump got along very well with Modi.

The main disagreement with the Biden admin, is India's close relationship with Russia which is time tested and not fickle like with the USA. Biden wants India to stop purchasing Russian oil, even though India processes the oil and sells it back to Europe at high price or uses oil for its own use. The Europeans need the oil, its a face saving way for them to purchase it. The US continues to trade with Russia, eg uranium and other commodities.

25
As an example of development, India brings F4 racing to Kashmir, while Pak still focusses on donkey racing. This excites the locals. Many universities, top hospitals, airports, malls etc opening in Kashmir these days.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1769359507820622164

26
wow

Ya, do you think India Pakistan union is possible?

No India does not want a Union with Pak, only POK which is still mostly Shia and provides connectivity to Afghanistan. Mainland Pak is full of wahabbi sunnis, that even the Arabs dont want. i do see Pak breaking up, Balochistan becoming free, the Pashtun areas going to Afghanistan and southern pak (Sindhudesh) becoming free. The land locked state of paki Punjab would retain all the crazies.

If India gains economic strength and China continues to gobble up portions of Bhutan, they could join India too. Their neighboring region Sikkim which is similar to Bhutan, became an Indian state.

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Politics & Religion / Re: Questions for Ya
« on: March 17, 2024, 09:07:52 AM »
Agree with Doug.  We never hear anything in msm about India .

Items 1-3 must happen, before India voluntarily takes POK, unless China forces India's hand by moving on Taiwan earlier

Ya
what do you mean takes POK ?  what does that stand for POK?

And force India's hand if China takes Taiwan.  What would India's response be?

Is India contributing to the defense of the Taiwan strait with other Countries?

POK has been explained above.
India has friendly relations with Taiwan, infact they are planning on building a semiconductor factory in India. If China were to take Taiwan, India could support them through an international US lead coalition to block Chinese goods traffic through the Malacca straits. However, since China cannot fight a two front war with both Taiwan and India, India is likely to make its move for POK while China is distracted.

28
Not Pak, but Gilgit Baltistan loosely called Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), which is Indian Territory per the Constitution of India and India has a strong legal basis for it. Since independence, the Parliament has empty seats for representatives from POK. Gilgit and Baltistan are the major areas that are being contested

.

These are Shia areas. There is a small sliver of land near Muzaffarabad so called Azad Kashmir or Free Kashmir (seen on the map, left middle side), that is Sunni and India has no interest in it, though the people from there too are protesting to join India as the 3 areas Gilgit, Baltistan and Azad Kashmir comprise POK. The map also shows Aksai Chin that China has occupied and adjacent to it is territory that Pak ceded to China, which is also Indian territory per legal documents.

To understand India's historical civilizational ties with Afghanistan, Balochistan, Tibet etc, You may want to read about Akhand Bharat (separate issue), which shows the old Indian territories, from not too long ago.

POK stands for Pak Occupied Kashmir. Before India got Independence from the British in 1947, it was ruled by princely states and they were given a choice to either join the Union of India or Pakistan. The ruler of Kashmir chose to join India (Hindu king), so all parts of his kingdom became part of India. Due to strategic mistakes by Indian PM Nehru, Pak managed to occupy some parts of it but India has never given up its claims to it. Infact in the new parliament which was inaugurated in India last year, India re-allocated 24 seats for people of POK. India's strategy is to weaken Pak economically and strengthen itself economically and militarily incase China decides to interfere in favor of pak. Its only a matter of time, that POK will come back to India. India will then have a direct land connection to Afghanistan through the Wakhan corridor. This will cut the geopolitical importance of Pak, as well as block China's Belt and Road Initiative which goes thro POK occupied Kashmir to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea through the port of Gwadar.

29
I have been following Modi govt's talk and actions with respect to China and POK.

1. India is spending billions on new weapon purchases, the rate at which new contracts are being signed and weapon systems being implemented is impressive. There is a time line that they are trying to meet. All of this is China focussed, including the MIRV capability.
2. Border infrastructure, new tunnels and all weather capability at the China border is being developed massively. Huge funding upgrades have been done.
3. The Modi govt's stated goal within the next 3 years is to become the 3rd largest economy in the world, after the USA and China. India is close to overtaking Japan and Germany. This is critical. Currently, the difference between India and China in terms of economic power is huge. 
4. Another important focus is to develop Indian Kashmir to world standards, such that the people of POK who watch development in in Indian Kashmir, agitate to join with India, without a bullet being fired.

Items 1-3 must happen, before India voluntarily takes POK, unless China forces India's hand by moving on Taiwan earlier.

30
BTC hopium from Tim Peterson. He is very conservative, posted a chart showing BTC at 1 million in 2 years


31
My prediction ! We should touch 100 K BTC  latest by Oct 2024, possibly within 30 days.  Note: I have no crystal ball, just an informed guess. Dont take this seriously.

Enjoy the video for those thinking about buying BTC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1769027637182394541

35
Welcome aboard, Musashi. BTC is time.

Some are starting to suspect it's also power

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfYDSE7T_cQ&t=20s

There's an Airforce major named Jason Lowery who presented a thesis that bitcoin will be used as a means to wage war in cyberspace. Honestly, his explanation may be a bit too convoluted than it needs to be, but I don't really blame him, it's a fairly abstract idea.

Essentially, BTC will act as a means of exerting soft power through resource application. BTC will kind of act like the cyberspace version of "gold", and other web3 networks will resemble nations with their own local currencies (XRP, Polygon, Polkadot, ect.).

You can exert power over other nations and actors via BTC by using transactions as sort of a defensive paywall (you send BTC to address 1 from address 2 and we sent it back along with access).

That's the simplest way of explaining it, but don't take it as gospel, I'm gonna have to read his book to confirm this is the proper interpretation, probably will try to contact him and talk about it someday if I get the opportunity and the right lines.

I suspect nations are going to start buying up BTC in the future as well, just a matter of time. There are some rumors that an oil state is doing just that right now in fact. Just rumors. Fatwah committees in Oman and UAE just recently declared BTC halal a year and a halfish ago, so it wouldn't be too surprising. If it's true, I'd guess Dubai, Oman, or Saudi Arabia based on Fatwahs and recent legislative regulations.

Yes, we discussed Lowry's book a while ago. Nation State Game Theory is coming soon. Edward Snowden says a large nation holding BTC in their treasury will be declared this year.

37
Its a matter of time, every pension fund will allocate a few percent to their retirement funds. Studies show the returns improve significantly, considering that most pension funds are not doing well.

38
Welcome aboard, Musashi. BTC is time.



40
Politics & Religion / Ani Patel: Free BTC booklet
« on: March 03, 2024, 04:43:29 PM »
Free BTC booklet, by the amzing Anil Patel

https://thebitcoinhandbook.com/

41
Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: March 03, 2024, 08:56:58 AM »
Shehbaz Sharif elected PM of Pak a second time (after the army exiled his bro Nawaz Sharif earlier), but it was better to bring him back than letting Imran Khan win. Another rigged election.

44
Politics & Religion / Gold vs. BTC
« on: March 02, 2024, 05:59:06 AM »
Gold ETF's are losing funds (are being demonetized), while BTC ETF's are gaining funds. Overtime, BTC will exceed the Gold market cap of 11 Trillion, which should be worth 500 K in BTC terms.


45
This is not a new idea, but certainly a well articulated one, as to what the end game for the sovereign default crisis may be. A corollary of this is that the US govt confiscates Bitcoins from Blackrock etc and gives ETF holders the fiat value. This is why holding real BTC is best, but is complicated for most.

In other important news, CEO of Vanguard got fired. He was against BTC, his clients missed a 50 % move by refusing to offer BTC ETF's.

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1763500294481092952

46
GBTC still has some selling going on, this relates to some funny business Barry Silbert was involved in. This will subside soon.


47
You mentioned a 90 day waiting period before the big funds can buy in or something like that.  What does that period end?

Around the halving in April. Yesterday Blackrock Quant at a conf recommended a 28 % allocation.

48
Watch the rate of inflow in $ or BTC to the ETF's. Even at 50 % of the current inflow rate, BTC will be over 100 K/coin by the end of 2024. However, this assumes no black swans, though some like war could actually expedite this.


49
India will be # 3 economy in a year or two, it has the largest population in the world.  Smaller countries like France and UK are Security Council members, almost sounds like a joke these days. Its within 0.2 Trillion of Germany and Japan. The only one objecting is China and interestingly from what I understand in the 50's the Permanent Council membership was offered to India and the strategically dumb PM of India, Nehru said China should take it.

50
Politics & Religion / India demands Security Council Seat at UN
« on: February 25, 2024, 08:32:42 AM »
India plays hardball, cuts UN funding by 50 %, threatens to withdrawn UN peacekeeping forces. Demands UN Security Council seat.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-cuts-un-funding-expert-wants-end-to-peacekeeping/

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