Fire Hydrant of Freedom

TechDev's work below as well as Martin Armstrong's Socrates arrays (different technique), have suggested a first peak in the end of Feb/March 2025 for many months now.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/01/fact-sheet-executive-order-to-establish-united-states-leadership-in-digital-financial-technology/

BTC stockpile is coming together with a purchase of BTC via legislation.

Important read on the BSR

https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/can-trump-order-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve

Please enjoy some Christmas Hopium. Note the Q1 2025 quadrant, we are now at the 100K line, but also look at the 10, 100, 1000, 10,000 lines too. This is the best time of the season, when we start to cross the line (ring) sharply and this could happen since Trump is very pro BTC. If it goes up, I will sell some. Based on current best estimates, we will have the first peak by Feb-March. Lets see. Blue dots are the halvings and the black dots are the tops.

I have posted earlier, things are not going well for Bangladesh. Likely under US pressure, with the help of Pak ISI they ousted the moderate Sheikh Hasina, who is now sheltering in India. The fight with the US was about US bases/access in St.Martins island. Now it seems that the Myanmar rebels have taken over some of the southernmost parts (Teknaf) of Bangladesh.

If the BSR gets approved, there is no falling back for BTC, its up only!. I would expect the mythical Omega (green candle), i.e. 100 K candle on the charts. The article is mixing up BSR and a falling BTC dominance that can be associated with an an ALT rally. As a side note, Eric Trump recently gave a BTC presentation in Abu Dhabi, he said he strongly believed that BTC is going to a Million. I think early in the Trump presidency, Trump will likely use an executive order to protect the 200 K BTC pile that the US possesses. To buy more BTC, the Lummis bill for the BSR must be passed and she is very optimistic since Trumps Treasury Secretary is supportive.

This is huge, the US Treasury calling BTC as digital gold, see slide 108 in pdf. I have discussed the use of Tether as a demand source for US Treasuries, and the tokenization of US Treasuries is also coming.

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/CombinedChargesforArchivesQ42024.pdf

BTC is larger than Facebook, Silver. Soon it overtakes Google, the race is to become the top dog and beat Gold. If Trump creates the SBR, this could happen quickly.

In the meantime, the Indian Rupee.

Friendly reminder

Yes, its a taxable event. The ideal holding period is 10 + years, or decades. However, at some point one must take profits, if the intent is to retire or use the gains. All I am saying is that for those who plan to take profits next year, have a plan and dont make any emotional moves. This thinking is based on the current 4 year cycles where BTC peaks and then goes into a bear market, followed by 3 up years (and we are coming to the 3rd up year in 2025). The 4 year model of supply shock is expected to break down, since it was based on a shrinking of the mining reward every 4 years, the current mining reward is only 450 BTC/day, a small amount, so its effect will be negligible going forward and from the next cycle (2028), when it shrinks to 225/day. The ETF's on somedays are buying 5000 BTC/day, so I think the reward no longer plays a big role.

All of this could change, if Trump establishes the Strategic BTC Reserve (SBR) which he has promised and his Treasury secretary supports. Several states such as TX, PA have their own bills cooking to establish the strategic reserve. If the SBR is established, then the above 4 yr cycle will not hold, and BTC goes on a pathway to a Million over the next couple of years or less. Which is why I also said, dont sell everything.

P.S. The above is my current thinking, but I do not have a crystal ball, so please do your own research 

What we should be watching


Senate bill S.4912 re: the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (aka path to a million$)
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text

90 K tonight would be fine.

Important:

What is your goal?

Do you want to take profits this cycle, and if so, how much (USD or BTC)?

Are you planning to continue stacking during the bull, or are you HODL only?

The BTC strategic reserve is a huge development. This has been a big topic of discussion in the BTC community and infact the website to the BTC policy institute has crashed due to the number of people wanting to read their report. The pdf is available here, in particular read the questions/answers. https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/627aa615676bdd562bec97cd/6728fc69a46dd5394bf3e73d_BPI%20Policy%20Brief%20Digital%20Gold.pdf

The game theory is that nation states will front run the USA and this is happening. Soon BTC will be considered a new asset class and strategic reserve item like gold, silver etc. Once Trump sets up the strategic reserve in the USA, there will be a massive race by central banks world wide to do the same. However bullish you may be, you are not bullish enough.

The good thing is that the USA can print $ to purchase a hard asset like BTC, this exorbitant privilege is not available to most countries.

Hopium

On BTC
https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1851564754151538800

Many cycles are lining up for both Oct 28, and the week of Oct 28 re: BTC for a meaning event. Lets see.

Looks like we hit 70 K...on oct 28

I have posted this before, but worth a re-listen. Why stable coins like USDT will be the new source of demand for US treasuries, in the face of declining demand from China. The corollary is that USDT will then be used to buy BTC.
https://x.com/i/status/1849918286634332625

The other important news is that Microsoft share holders are voting on Dec 10, whether MSFT should buy BTC. The outcome is irrelevant, for now every large and small corporate board will do the same. Hundreds of billions of $ are going to come into the space. If you are not familiar with this strategy, study MSTR they have done this and has been the best performing stock in the SP500. If I were a betting man, and they decide to buy BTC, MSFT will shoot up (if not it might dump a bit).

We probably need a BRICS thread.

In the meantime..

Many cycles are lining up for both Oct 28, and the week of Oct 28 re: BTC for a meaning event. Lets see.

Friendly atmosphere at BRICS. Xi smiling thats rare. Putin joked to Modi in their dialog, that India-Russia relationship was so tight, that Modi did not need a  translator.

This is the Khalistani terrorist, who is threatning to blow up Air-India flights and break up India that the US is supporting. It cannot be justified. Video is in Punjabi language, which is typical when they dont want the west to understand what they are saying.

https://x.com/i/status/1848591453125284175

Gold on the monthly leads BTC on the weekly chart.

The betting markets are showing a 60:40 split in favor of Trump since a long time now. Trump is coming back.

https://polymarket.com/elections