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Most of the money laundering is done using the US $ and other major currencies. Crypto is a very small portion of that. Furthermore, calling it "crypto" is not useful. There are 8000 crypto currencies.

Politics & Religion / Layered Money
« on: July 25, 2021, 08:12:21 AM »
This is a great read, highly recommended, especially the last few chapters. Nik Bhatia's Layered Money

The "experts" think there is no issue with Tether. As BTC rises and banks get disrupted, there will be lots of FUD, talk of govt bans, taxation etc. BTC has forced nearly every nation to come up with CBDC's, but CBDC's are just unlimited fiat digital $. Gresham's law predicts that bad money drives out good money i.e.  BTC will be hoarded as a store of value, while fiat will be spent.
Stablecoin legislation is coming.

Good decision...BTC  is a long term play. If you can hold for 2 halving cycles, i.e. 8 years, that should be rewarding.
Tomorrow important BTC conf in the afternoon. Should be interesting.  A sharp move is coming, Bollinger bands have been narrowing. Cathie Wood of Ark Investments, bought a ton of GBTC in the last few days. Exciting times.

China realized that they could not win over India, in the last standoff. They are now correcting their weaknesses and will try again.

BTC make or break time...

See this interview of Jack mallers, the maker of Strike. Super eye opening, the way forward. According to him, banks, Coinbase, Paypal etc are toast.

No specific info on security, I assume its safe, otherwise the BTC community would have already discussed it.
Coinbase is hated in the BTC community...may not be a great investment, though Cathy Wood of ARKK investments is buying heavily,

You have it exactly right. Transactions on layer 1 (BTC blockchain) are intended for large transactions like buying a house, car etc, where you can wait for 20-30 min for the transaction to clear. On the other hand, small transactions, like buying coffee, need to be instantaneous and "free", that is where the lightning network comes in. STRIKE app
 is the leader in the field and is gaining tens of thousands of members on a daily basis. Expect the banks to be disrupted, they cant even send a wire transfer instantly after charging 25 $.

See the exponential growth of the BTC lightning network, this is the second layer network which is currently used for instantaneous payments. VISA or Mastercard. And did you know that the actual transaction behind a VISA/Mastercard takes 4-5 days to settle, unlike the Lightning Network which is in seconds.

The growth curves are getting vertical, expect a near vertical growth curve for BTC.

 Expect a large move in the next couple of weeks, most likely UP. GBTC unlock period starts July is unclear if that is going to be bullish/bearish. Below is a note from Willy Woo.

Top level summary for 15th July 2021 (current price $31.8k):

Macro cycle: User growth is on a parabolic climb. Structurally we are in the middle of a bull market. This has not been reflected in price due to the size of the selling pressure of large investors (likely hedge funds) months ago, it’s forced a sideways re-accumulation band, where speculators who absorbed the coins are selling down their inventory to long term investors. The long term picture is strongly bullish once re-accumulation is complete.

Supply shock: The market is undergoing supply shock at levels that price it above $50k. Price needs to climb +50% to find balance with historical levels of valuation. This is expected to happen once fear subsides from the market. To do this price needs to break above its current resistance trend-line.

A large move is probable: Price action is setting up for a large squeeze, a significant move is expected soon. 17 Jul - 24 Jul is a high probability zone for a large price move.

Short term on-chain metrics are bullish: Smart money has ceased selling. Long term investors are absorbing coins at peak levels. Exchange outflows are signalling consistent buying demand.

Price action expectation: I’m expecting price to break from its bearish sideways band in the coming week followed by a recovery to the $50k-$60k zone before some further consolidation.

Not sure how accurate that news it..I have seen some alternate interpretations of that. Can we be sure that those missiles are for India ?. They would hit Indian population centers, at which point India will respond by hitting Chinese cities. Could it be they are not for use against India...

Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: July 10, 2021, 06:15:51 AM »
This is a nice short read, with some unique view points by a knowledgeable source as to whats happening between Pak, Haqqanis, Taliban and the US.

To me, it appears that China is preparing for war with Taiwan. If that happens, they dont want India to take advantage of the situation and claw back territory and hence they are upping their defenses.

BTC will rise again soon.

GBTC premiums are rising again (see chart) and secondly BTC will soon undergo its largest difficulty (decrease) adjustment due to the shift of mining capacity out of China. This is hugely bullish.

China has banned BTC many times, I think if the choice is between the Chinese CBDC and BTC, BTC will win every time. However, this is a strategic blunder by China, as all the mining is moving to the US, where most of it is done with reusable energy. This is actually good for the space and for the USA. In the past there was a concern that most of the mining was located in China. Mayor of Miami wants to provide cheap nuclear energy to miners!.

Re: BTC, there is strong support at 30K, if it breaks that, might be a rare opportunity to buy more, cheaply. Last year the low was 3500, now its about 35,000 $, not bad.

We may have seen the bottom...30-42K is the chop zone.

China has banned BTC many times, I think if the choice is between the Chinese CBDC and BTC, BTC will win every time. However, this is a strategic blunder by China, as all the mining is moving to the US, where most of it is done with reusable energy. This is actually good for the space and for the USA. In the past there was a concern that most of the mining was located in China. Mayor of Miami wants to provide cheap nuclear energy to miners!.

Re: BTC, there is strong support at 30K, if it breaks that, might be a rare opportunity to buy more, cheaply. Last year the low was 3500, now its about 35,000 $, not bad.

Fascinating interview with Jack Mallers of Strike, 1 hr long but worth it. He got El salv do make the Bitcoin standard. Why BTC will be a world currency someday.

The US $ and currency notes in particular is the currency of choice for illegal dealings. The smart crooks dont use BTC, after all its a public ledger. There are coin mixers available, which can make your original BTC untraceable but most dont use them.

Some may remember the Galwan incident where the Chinese treacherously attacked Indian troops with barbaric weapons. The Chinese hid their casualties. Now more details are coming out.

Politics & Religion / Re: Group 2 cryptos
« on: June 10, 2021, 06:38:29 PM »
Hi Ya,

thanks for post :

"Group 2 cryptoassets - are those, such as bitcoin, that do not fulfil the classification conditions. Since these pose additional and higher risks, they would be subject to a new conservative prudential treatment."

I do not know how to translate what this means into English.  :-o

treated more like stocks ?

Aslo googling BIS  it represents 63 national Central Banks

but I do not see the US federal reserve Central Banks on list:

I dont know a lot about BIS, except that its very important organization. Re:BTC they want banks who hold BTC to have fiat reserves in a 1:1 ratio. BIS thinks this ratio will discourage banks, but actually its great for BTC, as leverage will not be encouraged.

BTC is now an official asset class, It will not be criminalized or banned.

BTC bill has been submitted  in El Salv Congress. The Prez has a majority so the bill will likely go through.

Politics & Religion / Re: Scott Grannis against BTC
« on: June 08, 2021, 08:37:06 PM »
Bitcoin has so many potential pitfalls (hard forks, many hundreds of competing crypto currencies, wildly unstable bitcoin/dollar exchange rate, huge potential for loss—think forgotten codes to $billions!—and the ginormous cost of mining and processing). Not to mention the fact that the US government is already mandating the reporting of all bitcoin-dollar transactions that occur at bitcoin exchanges, which in turn removes one of the key attractions (anonymity) of using bitcoin. I think it will take many, many years before it could—maybe—garner a meaningful percentage of global transaction volume. Between now and then what will be its eventual (stable?) price?

-Scott Grannis

YA:  I thought you had a good response to this, chart and all.  May I ask you to post it here?
1. Hard forks: All of them are failed currencies (BCH, BSV). There is only one king.
2. Hundreds of competing currencies: Most are centralized scams, BTC is decentralized. No serious competition, BTC has13 yr history, tried and tested. Its like competing with Facebook, network effects rule.
3. Wildly unstable $ rate: Please remember 1 BTC=1BTC, but still see this list of corrections

El Salvador Prez sending bill to Congress to make BTC legal tender. I dont know enough about the politics, but if that were to happen, game theory would predict that other nations would want to get in.

Recent buyers (within prior 3 months) sold and are at a loss. Long term holders are accumulating, as are the miners. Miners accumulating, means they expect higher prices in the future. Miners finance their operations by selling BTC when prices are high. Overall, nothing suggests that a bear market is imminent, though the consolidation could last a while.

BTC has undergone a correction, the 2017 bull run had many such corrections. The On-chain data does not suggest this is a bear market.

BTC consolidation phase will end soon. So far on track.

Yes, money usually flows from large cap (BTC) to Ether to small caps..who may take profits and buy BTC. All of this can change quickly if BTC shoots up.

The BTC level at 53 K is important, thats the 1 Trillion market cap. Strong support here. BTW, I am not selling.

Good time to buy...SOPR indicator discussed before.

Check out this read on Hyperbitcoinization. The author has written a decent book on BTC

Then what is GBTC?

GBTC is considered a Trust. For example, they dont allow withdrawals at all times. However, there is a very high probability it is in the process of being converted into an ETF, it might become the largest ETF because of their massive BTC holdings.

Below is a chart model predicting 300 K for the top. Scroll to the right.

No, there is no ETF in the USA.

GBTC price is messed up due to its premium. Need an ETF ASAP. I have some BITW which has the same issue. Am planning to sell on this spike and then wait for the ETF. I read somewhere that Fidelity acct holders can buy the Canadian ETF, but you have to call their international desk.

Wildly bullish. The BTC peak is far away. Outflows from exchanges means no one is selling. The peak inflow, corresponds to 2017 BTC peak.

Politics & Religion / crypto market cap exceeds that of banks
« on: April 06, 2021, 04:13:20 AM »
Crypto market cap exceeds that of banks

Open an acct with Coinbase and Coinbase Pro. Fees are less on Coinbase pro. If you want to store them with the exchange, it can be done free at Coinbase, or you can store them yourself. Self custody is a learning curve and worth it, if you are investing a significant amount. Start with a small amount and learn the process.

ETH has its supporters, but some pros feel that it will never be money, though it will have many applications on the ETH blockchain. The reason to buy should not be unit bias, i.e. its cheaper, because one can also buy a fraction of a BTC. Plotting a long term chart of ETH-USD (expressed in $) and ETH-BTC (expressed in BTC) is instructive and eye opening, see chart from 2017 onwards Check out

ETH expressed in BTC looks pathetic, ETHBTC
ETH expressed in USD looks great, ETHUSD

Help me understand Ethereum and its interaction/competition with BTC please.

Please see this free site

"BTC can only go up"

   - Reminds me of some things I may have said about tech in the time leading up to the tech crash.  Some specific stocks come to mind.  I don't want to be the naysayer or spoil any fun but I think there are at least two directions it can go at any time.  Limited supply is definitely its strength, but demand, it seems to me, is the main determinant.

Yes you are right theoretically...but if you scroll to the right, supply shortage has never been more acute, institutional demand is rising, pension funds are starting to take positions, sovereign states are likely getting involved. Today BNY Mellon came out with their BTC note, they will allow their clients to buy and store BTC, many other banks doing the same. Every day only 900 new BTC can be mined...the rest must come from people willing to sell.

See Institutions below

BTC supply is shrinking...BTC can only go up

GBTC is having issues because there are many BTC funds now to share the wealth (Canada, Brazil Europe etc). This has lead to a decline in the premium. This is a "normal" BTC pull back so far.

Unbelievable, 1 BTC=1kg Gold

This sounds weird today...clipping from the year 2000. We are around the year 1997 in BTC terms.

1. BTC mining is shifting towards renewable energy or use of excess energy.
2. We can always produce more energy, read about the Kardashev scale.
3. That BTC uses a lot of energy is true, but it is less than many other activities that we are fine with me. Several articles on the topic.

"What does this chart tell us?" 100K in 2-3 months

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