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Good time to buy...SOPR indicator discussed before.

Check out this read on Hyperbitcoinization. The author has written a decent book on BTC

Then what is GBTC?

GBTC is considered a Trust. For example, they dont allow withdrawals at all times. However, there is a very high probability it is in the process of being converted into an ETF, it might become the largest ETF because of their massive BTC holdings.

Below is a chart model predicting 300 K for the top. Scroll to the right.

No, there is no ETF in the USA.

GBTC price is messed up due to its premium. Need an ETF ASAP. I have some BITW which has the same issue. Am planning to sell on this spike and then wait for the ETF. I read somewhere that Fidelity acct holders can buy the Canadian ETF, but you have to call their international desk.

Wildly bullish. The BTC peak is far away. Outflows from exchanges means no one is selling. The peak inflow, corresponds to 2017 BTC peak.

Politics & Religion / crypto market cap exceeds that of banks
« on: April 06, 2021, 04:13:20 AM »
Crypto market cap exceeds that of banks

Open an acct with Coinbase and Coinbase Pro. Fees are less on Coinbase pro. If you want to store them with the exchange, it can be done free at Coinbase, or you can store them yourself. Self custody is a learning curve and worth it, if you are investing a significant amount. Start with a small amount and learn the process.

ETH has its supporters, but some pros feel that it will never be money, though it will have many applications on the ETH blockchain. The reason to buy should not be unit bias, i.e. its cheaper, because one can also buy a fraction of a BTC. Plotting a long term chart of ETH-USD (expressed in $) and ETH-BTC (expressed in BTC) is instructive and eye opening, see chart from 2017 onwards Check out

ETH expressed in BTC looks pathetic, ETHBTC
ETH expressed in USD looks great, ETHUSD

Help me understand Ethereum and its interaction/competition with BTC please.

Please see this free site

"BTC can only go up"

   - Reminds me of some things I may have said about tech in the time leading up to the tech crash.  Some specific stocks come to mind.  I don't want to be the naysayer or spoil any fun but I think there are at least two directions it can go at any time.  Limited supply is definitely its strength, but demand, it seems to me, is the main determinant.

Yes you are right theoretically...but if you scroll to the right, supply shortage has never been more acute, institutional demand is rising, pension funds are starting to take positions, sovereign states are likely getting involved. Today BNY Mellon came out with their BTC note, they will allow their clients to buy and store BTC, many other banks doing the same. Every day only 900 new BTC can be mined...the rest must come from people willing to sell.

See Institutions below

BTC supply is shrinking...BTC can only go up

GBTC is having issues because there are many BTC funds now to share the wealth (Canada, Brazil Europe etc). This has lead to a decline in the premium. This is a "normal" BTC pull back so far.

Unbelievable, 1 BTC=1kg Gold

This sounds weird today...clipping from the year 2000. We are around the year 1997 in BTC terms.

1. BTC mining is shifting towards renewable energy or use of excess energy.
2. We can always produce more energy, read about the Kardashev scale.
3. That BTC uses a lot of energy is true, but it is less than many other activities that we are fine with me. Several articles on the topic.

"What does this chart tell us?" 100K in 2-3 months

Watch the blue line...thats the line which shows the actual path and price of BTC. The yellow is the average of the 2 previous post-halving paths.

One model is predicting a BTC high of 300 K by the end of the year. The redline shows where we are and how far still to go. Pl. scroll to rt.

There is an ETF called INFL for inflation that I started to invest in.

Thank you. However, my understanding of GBTC etc is rudimentary. Re: BTC I have put in my 10,000 hrs to study it  :-)

BTC on track ..P.S; is there a way to make the pictures smaller!

Based on recent job openings at Grayscale, looks like they are preparing for a BTC ETF. They will likely convert the GBTC to an ETF. This may be a good thing for GBTC holders.

Politics & Religion / Re: Afpakia: Afghanistan-Pakistan
« on: March 06, 2021, 03:40:30 PM »

Will Biden withdraw from Afgh as planned ?

See how small is BTC as compared to other asset classes, all we need is a 5 % flow from the other asset classes and things will rock.

Simple answer BTC going up, Fibonacci level of 70K+. Every cycle in BTC has had 3 peaks so far, we just finished the first peak at 58K. With some luck 2 more peaks to be expected. HODL waves represent BTC holder peaks, the orange color shows the market peaks when the short term (1 month) hodlers peak (orange).

BTC Fibonacci levels, pl. scroll to right

Here's some hopium
The author is considered a serious guy and just wrote a book.

Fidelity is out with a positive piece on BTC.
Similarly Citibank has a positive research note out today.
Goldman is starting their crypto desk again.
Lots of positive news with Institutional investors...$70 K by end of April.

I am planning to get out of BITW a crypto fund over the next month or so. I think the ETF will be approved sometime this year, at which point any funds with high premiums (GBTC, BITW etc) will lose the premium and the price will go down.

On chain analysis data suggests, BTC should go up soon. Re: GBTC folks need to be wary of a few more things.
1. Fees: 2 %, these add up over time.
2. Premium over NAV, i.e. one is paying more than what the asset is worth. In return you get convenience.
3. The biggest danger lurking is that Bloomberg reported that an ETF is around the corner. Once the ETF comes out, GBTC will lose its premium, i.e. price will match NAV.

If one is concerned about these dangers, the wise thing is to consider selling on the next up swing (@around $60k BTC) and buy BTC instead.

P.S. My understanding of NAV is rudimentary at best!, so above scenario may or may not occur.

BTC is gold 2.0. Since Microstrategy (MSTR) put BTC on its balance sheet (in part by getting low interest rate money from govt to buy BTC an appreciating asset), MSTR stock has sky rocketed. They followed up by holding a free conference that was attended by 20,000 company execs on how others can do the same and revealed their playbook to buy BTC, legal issues etc. This play book will be replicated by hundreds and thousands of companies as the US $ is printed to infinity.

The below chart shows a nice correlation, suggesting that capital may be moving from gold to BTC. Gold is no longer the store of value it once was. The dotted vertical line shows when MSTR started BTC purchases and the world started to notice.

Well written article

Worth pointing out that the 2017 bull run had 9 pullbacks of about 33 % each. This cycle we have had 2 pullbacks of 20% each. Also check seasonality

ETH is a good trade and it has its supporters. Bitcoin maximalists, people who did some of the early work for BTC and who interacted with satoshi, so called cypherpunks dont think much of it. They think it cannot scale and it is impossible to audit how many coins there are. Another negative is the supposedly 70 % premine of coins by the Vitalik Buterin and other developers for themselves. There was no premine by Satoshi and every coin can be counted. ETH is centralized to some extent as the developers exercise a lot of control. Having said that, it is a useful coin, but is not likely to become a store of value or a currency like BTC. The standard advise when holding altcoins is to use profits from their rapid price appreciation to buy BTC. ETH is also popular because of the smaller unit of acct, these days around 2000$ for a coin vs 56000$ for BTC.

Another tip while looking at altcoins is to plot a long term chart  in ETH/BTC as opposed to ETH/USD. This can be revealing.

Your meme is incomplete, #7 is BTC

Past performance does not predict future results  :-D, due to changes in the market structure namely arrival of institutions, the drawdowns after the bull peak are not likely to be 85 % as before**. In the previous 2 bull markets, the corrections were severe because these runs were due to retail traders.

With the arrival of institutions and big money, the corrections have been only 30 % or less in this bull cycle. I expect at most a 50 % correction from the peak.

The graph below tries to compare the % gains after the halving in the 3rd cycle (ongoing) as compared to earlier cycles, using a common scale.

** If you believe you will get a deep draw down, some rich hodlers are planning to sell at the perceived peak, buy a used ferrari that will retain value, use it for a year or so and sell it to buy back BTC at the nadir.

No, not necessarily. There are several companies now that allow you to borrow money at (6-10 %) against your BTC. You keep ownership, no sales, no capital tax. Unchained Capital charges 10 % or so, but you keep ownership (multisig), whereas Blockfi charges less interest, but rehypothecates (less safe). If one assumes that BTC is still going up 200-300 % per year, this is a great way to live off BTC without selling any.

China is finally acknowledging some casualties, offering medals to 5 killed in the Galwan barbaric attack incident. Indian army general says Chinese casualties were 2x Indian casualties (around 45) Lots of meltdown in Chinese media, Indian media talking about China running away from the battlefield in Ladakh !

Here's a simplified chart of the above. Horizontal lines are the proposed limits based on various models. Nothing is guaranteed, ofcourse. IMHO, 100K is 95 % probable, 200K 50 % probability based on what I am seeing.

The Chinese soldiers are in a hurry to go back to their Oxygen enriched barracks and eat Chicken Kung pao and humble pie. :-D The disengagement is going fine so far. The agreement was to take apart all construction in the region of the Pangong Tso lake bank since April 2020, when they started their intrusions.

Interestingly India's last outpost is just before finger 4 see ITBP post in picture, from there to finger 4 there is no road and its just a single file walk way carved into the mountainside. India's claim line is till finger 8 and the Chinese have a post just after F8  called Sirijap. Chinese claim line is till F4. During the Kargil war with Pak, India moved away its forces and could not afford to raise objections to Chinese motorable road building from finger 8 to finger 4. As a result of that, Indians patrol from Finger 4 to 8 by foot, whereas the Chinese could just cruise in their humvees. Since April 2020, they were not allowing Indian patrols beyond the narrow ledge after Finger 4. Now they have had to remove the jetty as well as other posts they had created in the fingers region. The region between F4-8, will not be patrolled by both sides for the present.

Both the charts are related. My explanation powers are not the greatest..

In first chart: We know that BTC goes up after the halvings (every 4 years, mining reward is cut by 50 %), i.e. supply goes down 50 % and price will go up even if demand is the same. These halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and  in May 2020. The chart shows the % increase for the 2012 post halving period (purple line), the 2016 post halving which peaked in Jan 2018 (greenish line) and the average of the two (yellow line), assuming the 2020 post-halving will behave somewhere in between the 2 halvings. We can see that the actual path being traced by the blue line post the 2020 halving, matches the yellow line so far. If this were to continue, the peak is around 200-300 K.

The second chart shows that BTC balances on exchanges are declining post 2020 halving in May. A decline in balances means that investors are withdrawing them from the exchanges for long term storage in their own private hardware wallets. When they want to sell BTC at the top, you will see that they will send their BTC's back to the exchange and the Exchange's balances will rise. This happened in 2017 and continued well after the peak in 2018, so its not a precise indicator.

The supply is being locked up ...internationally.

See how BTC is behaving as compared to the 2 previous halvings, the average of the two and where it is now. Pl. scroll to right.

 There is very little supply, < 4 million coins available, most are in cold storage. There are still 499 companies in the SP 500 that still have not added BTC to their treasury.
Looks like Taleb had a bad trading day...must have shorted and got rekt (wrecked).

Yes, a new emphasis on increased military spending and preparedness is visible. As soon as China calms down, military spending will turn down. Having said that it is clear, that India will not back down due to a threat of military aggression from China. China knows, that they would have suffered great pain, in any war on the Indo-China border, which is why they were forced to sheepishly  pullback their tanks first.

Like in a B movie western, China will be back again, perhaps after they have settled the Taiwan issue.

India does not have the financial or military heft to support Taiwan in this way. India does not even teach Pak a serious lesson, let alone China. There is a defensive mindset in India, does not want to spend on weapons...development is more important..yada yada..The question is why is the world's sole super power not doing any of this ?.

GBTC vs BTC, are you looking for investment gains (GBTC) only or investment gains + freedom + money that cannot be confiscated (BTC). Both are good options for different individuals.

The central banks and IMF are in a panic. Their CBDC's cannot compete with BTC, so a lot of FUD will be created. China has tried to ban BTC, I think like 4 times, they were unsuccesful. BTC is now a 900 Billion asset, it will soon be worth over 1 Trillion dollars. New money keeps pouring in.

The two areas where one should anticipate FUD is 1. A lot of terrorists and drug dealers use it. Reality is that BTC is a ledger, everything is trackable. the US $ is what is used for >90 % of drug money. Drug dealers are smart, they no longer use it. 2. BTC's energy consumption. Much has been written about it, but more and more BTC is being mined using flared gas or reusable energy.

FUD can cause a temporary fall in price, but it will not stick. As an example. the SEC recently called XRP token illegal (it is a security) and asked US exchanges to delist it. The price collapsed, but a month later it is back up again because the asian exchanges did not delist.

In 4-5 years there will be a billion users of BTC and it becomes something that cannot be banned. Even today, it cannot be banned due to game theory considerations. All one needs is one country in the world to allow its use and BTC will continue to function. If a country were to spend 100's of billions of dollars to buy and capture BTC using a 51 % attack technique, even that would not work. The block chain would be forked and a new chain would start. All the billions of dollars expended would be wasted.

The China initiated aggression on the Indian border, did not pay any dividends to them. No gain in territory, turned public opinion in India against China, lost a ton of contracts and business in India. India came closer to the US and Quad countries, India raised military spending, updated a lot of weapons, redoubled infrastructure spending at the border, increased maritime security and updated the Andaman Nicobar island commands etc. Finally, they are now forced to eat humble pie and start the withdrawal first, followed by the Indian side.

Looks like they overestimated their strengths and realized,  a 2 front war with India and Taiwan was a no-win situation.
India is fully aware of its maritime strengths in the Indian Ocean, it just choses to not flex in that area. Were a mountain war to start, India could put pressure on the Malacca Straights and choke Chinese traffic. China has a lot of money, but even they would not have the resources to maintain their 1000 + mile long supply lines to the Ladakh region.

Are you concerned that you are too late to the party..

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