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Summary

 
ROMEO GACAD/AFP/Getty Images

A Filipino man harvests bananas in Mindanao

Philippine President Benigno Aquino III said May 14 that banana growers should seek alternatives to the Chinese market. The statement follows May 9 reports that Chinese customs agents would begin inspecting banana and pineapple shipments from the Philippines for "harmful organisms." Under the heightened scrutiny, Chinese customs agents have impounded ships carrying bananas from the Philippines, causing the cargo to spoil at the expense of Philippine growers. The tensions over China's import restrictions on Philippine fruit come as travel agencies in China and Taiwan stop Chinese tourism in the Philippines due to the Scarborough Shoal maritime dispute.

As the third-largest destination for Philippine exports, China possesses significant economic leverage over the relatively small island country. It will use this leverage to persuade the Philippines to relax its claims in the South China Sea.

Analysis:

China seems to be focusing on sectors large, strategic and urgent enough (fruit spoils quickly, and there are no reserves to mitigate a dip in tourism) to send Manila a message without seriously damaging the Philippine and Chinese economies. By contrast, targeting things like electronics or machine parts would harm both economies and risk a regional backlash against China.

Bananas are the Philippines' most important fruit export, providing a major source of employment on the poor and politically unstable island of Mindanao. Bananas account, however, for just about 1 percent of the Philippines' total export value. China is currently the second-largest destination of Philippine bananas after Japan, importing $75 million worth of the fruit in 2011 -- 16 percent of Philippine banana exports. Thought it is a distant second behind Japan, which consumes more than half of Philippine banana exports, China is the fastest growing market for Philippine bananas. Imports more than doubled each year from 2009 to 2011. Even when Philippine exports to other countries dipped drastically after El Nino hit in 2010, exports to China leapt from $14 million to $33 million. This rapid growth and a declining or relatively steady demand in other markets like South Korea and Iran suggest that Philippine growers will not willingly give up the market in China.

Bolstering this perception, the president of the Pilipino Banana Growers and Exporters Association (PBGEA) warned that losing the Chinese market could have political, social and economic implications. He noted that up to 200,000 workers would be affected by the current situation, the first such incident since the Philippines started exporting bananas to China in 2001. The PBGEA has played an important role in developing and consolidating the country's banana growers. As such, it constitutes the largest unified voice in the Philippine fruit industry and the strongest potential lobby to affect national policy.

PBGEA's efforts to develop Mindanao's banana industry have paid off in recent years, with the Philippines emerging as the third-largest exporter worldwide and the largest by far in Asia. Most Philippine bananas are grown on Mindanao. The island long has been a hotbed for political and ethnic struggle, with several competing separatist groups inhabiting different parts of the island. Poor and relatively underpopulated, the island embodies the Philippines' struggle to integrate its rural, agriculture-based and heavily indigenous southern islands with the more prosperous urban north. While these tensions are not directly tied to the island's banana industry (the majority of bananas are grown in Davao del Norte, which is not occupied by separatist groups), they form part of a larger political context that Manila treats with caution.

Beijing may hope its tougher banana inspections and tourism boycott will impel the Philippine agriculture and tourism lobbies to coax Manila into toning down its maritime territorial rhetoric. Despite the relatively small value of banana exports compared to electronics or machine parts, the PBGEA plays a central role in the country's key agricultural export product. That and bananas' important Mindanao employer may give the PBGEA -- and other parts of the country's agriculture sector that fear wider Chinese sanctions -- a significant say in crafting Manila's response to China.

This would allow Beijing to resolve a territorial dispute without acting overly aggressive toward the Philippines, a move that could deprive third parties, including the United States, of any reason to intervene. That Manila has joined Beijing in denying any connection between banana import restrictions and the Scarborough Shoal affair helps efforts to cast the spat as a trade issue rather than a political issue, as does a Philippine Department of Agriculture delegation's visit to China to seek a resolution to the issue. (Representatives of that department have said the particular bacteria the Chinese claimed to find do not even typically affect bananas.)

In some ways, China's strategy toward the Philippines is reminiscent of its rare earth elements export ban, which was seen as directed against Japan. It may extend this strategy of using less overt ways of reinforcing its territorial claims against countries with competing claims in the South China Sea.

46252
I know some of us enjoy snarky commentary about Wesbury, but at the moment his track record is quite a bit better than ours.  He's a smart guy, well grounded in supply side economics, and I continue to post him because I think him well worth our time.

http://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2012/5/17/the-golden-drachma

46253
Politics & Religion / Re: US Foreign Policy
« on: May 17, 2012, 08:50:24 AM »
Please see today's entry on the Venezuela thread concerning growing alliance with Iran and the attendant risks to the US.

46256
Politics & Religion / Hamilton: Federalist 35
« on: May 17, 2012, 08:41:58 AM »
"There is no part of the administration of government that requires extensive information and a thorough knowledge of the principles of political economy, so much as the business of taxation. The man who understands those principles best will be least likely to resort to oppressive expedients, or sacrifice any particular class of citizens to the procurement of revenue. It might be demonstrated that the most productive system of finance will always be the least burdensome."

--Alexander Hamilton: Federalist No. 35

46257
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Hamilton, taxes, Federalist 35
« on: May 17, 2012, 08:35:50 AM »
"There is no part of the administration of government that requires extensive information and a thorough knowledge of the principles of political economy, so much as the business of taxation. The man who understands those principles best will be least likely to resort to oppressive expedients, or sacrifice any particular class of citizens to the procurement of revenue. It might be demonstrated that the most productive system of finance will always be the least burdensome." --Alexander Hamilton: Federalist No. 35

46258
Politics & Religion / Re: california
« on: May 17, 2012, 08:28:29 AM »
I disagree on Prop 13.  

First of all, if I am not mistaken, there is an adjustment mechanism limited to 2% a year.  

Second, and more importantly in my opinion, is the notion that someone should be buy a property knowing what the taxes on it will be and not be driven off it should the market value of the property go up.

In my case I bought my home in 1997.  It went up over 100% in the next 11 years.  Had the taxes gone up concomittently, I would have been forced to sell, which would have incurred me capital gains taxes, broker commissions, title search fees, etc etc etc and I would have been forced to leave my neighborhood-- with attendant disruptions on the lives of my family (e.g. children would have had to change school) and me.

Prop 13 makes perfect sense to me.  Just as I don't pay capital gains tax when the value of a stock I hold goes up, nor should I pay more when the value of my home goes up.

46259
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Solar Eclipse this Sunday!
« on: May 16, 2012, 04:53:50 PM »
Q: What's the best place to view the eclipse in Southern California?

 A: The partial solar eclipse will occur late in the day in Southern California on Sunday, beginning at 5:24 p.m., reaching its maximum coverage at 6:38 p.m., and exiting the sun's path at 7:42 p.m., just 10 minutes before sunset. "That means the sun is fairly low in the northwest, and you want a clear view of the northwest horizon," said Griffith Observatory director Ed Krupp.

He suggested a place with a clear view of the northwest, with an elevated view and a clear horizon, to see the moon obscure the sun's beams. Griffith Observatory, which is run by the city of Los Angeles, will have extra telescopes and staff on hand to help people view the eclipse for free.   

"They'll be seeing something that is really unusual -- a big bite coming out of the sun. And that's the real charm of this event," Krupp said.

Q: How big of a bite will the moon's shadow take of the sun?

A: According to the Griffith Observatory, 86% of the sun's diameter will be covered up by the moon. (That statistic is the standard one astronomers like to use; lay people may prefer knowing that 79% of the area of the sun will be covered up.) "It's a pretty deep eclipse here in Los Angeles," Krupp said

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Politics & Religion / US caving in negotiations w Iran?
« on: May 16, 2012, 02:29:01 PM »

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3580/tehran-west-caving-on-iranian-nuclear-program

Tehran: West Caving on Iranian Nuclear Program
by Joel Himelfarb  •  May 16, 2012 at 11:06 am

http://www.investigativeproject.org/3580/tehran-west-caving-on-iranian-nuclear-program


Iranian and United Nations officials claimed to have made progress in negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program on Tuesday. But initial reports have provided little substantive information beyond an announcement that representatives of the Iranian regime and the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will meet again next week in Vienna, Austria.

Iranian officials waxed optimistic, claiming the West is coming to terms with the inevitability of Iran's nuclear program. In a New York Times interview, Hamidreza Taraghi, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, bragged that Tehran had managed to skew the current nuclear negotiations in its favor by making uranium enrichment (a potential path to nuclear weapons) a reality that the West cannot stop.

Taraghi told the Times that Iran had convinced the West of the importance of a fatwa against the possession of nuclear weapons that Khamenei issued. Iranian officials emphasized that edict during last month's negotiations in Istanbul.

American officials countered that they brought up Khamenei's fatwa in an effort to provide the Iranians a "face-saving" way to reach a compromise. But Iranian negotiators left Istanbul believing they had prevailed. "We have managed to get our rights," Taraghi said. "All that remains is a debate over the percentage of enrichment."

That may be posturing. But a new analysis by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggests the Islamist regime has good reason to believe it has the upper hand in the nuclear standoff.

The IAEA's own reports show "that Iran has moved far beyond the point where it lacked the technology base to produce nuclear weapons," Cordesman writes. "Iran has pursued every major area of nuclear weapons development, (and) has carried out programs that have already given it every component of a weapon except fissile material." Moreover, "there is strong evidence that it has carried out programs to integrate a nuclear warhead on [to] its missiles."

Cordesman finds that Iran's nuclear efforts are diversified and can be concealed from international inspectors. Even if it were to suspend uranium enrichment, Tehran could "pursue nuclear weapons development through a range of compartmented and easily concealable programs without a formal weapons program."

Even if Tehran agreed to controls on its current enrichment facilities or saw them destroyed in a military strike, it would not necessarily put an end to the regime's nuclear capability. It "would take an amazing amount of intelligence access to prevent" Iran from creating replacement enrichment facilities if its existing programs were destroyed in bombing raids, Cordesman writes.

In short, "Iran could appear to agree to arms control or appear to have had its programs destroyed and still go on creating better future enrichment capability."

Read the full article here.



continued

46262
Politics & Religion / Gold dropping
« on: May 16, 2012, 02:22:21 PM »
I note that gold has been dropping rather sharply and it was reported this afternoon that it has broken its four year trend line.

This would seem to be rather contrary to some of the prevailing wisdom around here , , , though I might add that I have cautioned on gold more than once , , ,

====================

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

46264
Politics & Religion / GB takes on Eva Longoria
« on: May 16, 2012, 12:49:33 PM »
second post:

I haven't had a chance to look closely at this but it seems likely to be lively

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/we-never-occupied-mexico-beck-schools-eva-longoria-on-her-mexican-history/

46267
Politics & Religion / Schumpter in the White House
« on: May 16, 2012, 12:22:53 PM »
Schumpeter in the White House
How to talk about creative destruction
GUY SORMAN

The 2012 presidential race will be, in part, a showdown between two different models of economic growth. President Barack Obama and his Democratic administration will defend the once-discredited and now-resurgent theory that government must act as the economy’s “tutor” and use public funds to stimulate it. The Republican nominee, presumably Mitt Romney, will advance the free-market argument that the main source of new growth is the innovative energy of American entrepreneurs and that government needs to get out of the way.
 
An essential part of the free-market argument is “creative destruction,” a theory proposed by the great Austrian economist and Harvard University professor Joseph Schumpeter. If you don’t understand Schumpeter’s insight—expressed most powerfully in his classic 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy—you’ll have a hard time understanding why free markets work so well to generate prosperity. Yet creative destruction is a complicated concept, poorly understood by the general public and not always easy to defend. As November nears, the Republican nominee will have to figure out a way to show voters how essential it is to American prosperity.

Schumpeter believed that progress in a capitalist economy requires that the old give way constantly to the new: production technologies in a free economy improve constantly, and new products and services are always on offer. But this creative transformation also has a destructive side, since it makes earlier products and services—and the workers who provided them—obsolete. Today’s consumers have little reason to buy an oil lamp instead of a lightbulb, or a Sony Walkman instead of an iPod—which can be bad news for the people who manufacture the oil lamp and the Walkman.

Looking back at the history of Western capitalism, we can see how the discovery of new energy sources, new communications systems, and new financial instruments regularly demolished old ways of doing things. When this happened, the result was typically short-term pain, as certain workers found themselves displaced, and sometimes even what appeared to be economic crises; but there was also substantial long-term gain, as the economy became more efficient and productive. Economists W. Michael Cox and Richard Alm point to transportation as a striking example of the process. “With the arrival of steam power in the nineteenth century, railroads swept across the United States, enlarging markets, reducing shipping costs, building new industries, and providing millions of new productive jobs,” they write. Automobiles and airplanes had similar effects. Yet “each new mode of transportation took a toll on existing jobs and industries. In 1900, the peak year for the occupation, the country employed 109,000 carriage and harness makers. In 1910, 238,000 Americans worked as blacksmiths. Today, those jobs are largely obsolete.”

Creative destruction can take place not just across sectors of the economy but within particular firms, too. Since the invention of the automobile, many automakers have disappeared, unable to improve their products; those that survived have had to transform themselves radically to stay competitive. Sometimes firms even change their business to stay alive. Think of IBM, which started in 1930 by building calculating machines, shifted to computers in the 1950s, and today is a service company.

Trying to prevent creative destruction brings economic torpor or worse. At the extreme were the twentieth century’s totalitarian Communist regimes. I vividly recall the Soviet economy under Brezhnev and the Chinese economy under Mao Zedong. In these state-controlled societies, competition was illegal and existing factories were never shuttered; every industrial complex contained layers of antiquated technologies to which more recent ones had been added. To close down a factory, after all, would imply that the central planners had made mistakes—an impossibility, since socialism was supposedly scientific.

Innovation is very rare under such state-stifled conditions. In East Germany, factories produced the same car—the only one available—for three decades: the infamous Trabant. Without competitors providing consumers with other choices, there was no incentive to do anything else. Visiting Communist countries during the seventies and eighties, as I frequently did, was to enter a museum of industries past. In the poorly stocked shops, one would come across outmoded devices, like mechanical watches, long gone from advanced capitalist economies. In- deed, most of the innovative products that did surface in the Communist world—usually for the benefit of the military—were stolen or smuggled in from the West.

The same weakness affects, though less dramatically, the watered-down form of state economic planning often practiced in European democracies and renascent in America under the Obama administration, with its Keynesian stimulus spending, massive bailouts of the auto industry, partial takeover of General Motors, and subsidies of alternative energy. The track record of such economic intervention in democratic societies has been stagnation, though it has occasionally proved useful in emerging economies, like Japan’s in the 1950s, when capital is scarce and entrepreneurs are thin on the ground. Even in Japan’s case, though, many of the government-backed industries failed, while sectors of the economy that weren’t nurtured by the state’s “industrial policy”—cars, components, ceramics—flourished.

Central planners can never match the private innovators of a competitive economy. (Friedrich Hayek called this bureaucratic arrogance the “fatal conceit.”) A bureaucrat would need omnipotence to anticipate, let alone invent, the paradigm shifts that capitalist economies, churning with creative destruction, have regularly birthed. Economies open to creative destruction have innovated more, created more employment, and enjoyed higher growth rates than their statist rivals.

No place has been more open to creative destruction than the United States, where whole cities, left behind by technological advance, have crumbled into ruin, with abandoned factories standing forlornly alongside rusted railroad tracks and many workers long since departed to clear new lands, like the pioneers of yesteryear. The willingness of Americans to endure creative destruction has allowed their economy to outperform European economies for decades. But creative destruction always runs the risk of ruining the lives of individuals along the way, which poses a significant political problem for defenders of free markets. Consider an example from overseas. Rail now allows travelers to zoom easily and quickly from London to Paris and back. Who, then, needs the slow-moving ferry that links Dover and Calais? But just try explaining Schumpeter’s virtues to a unionized sailor!

Yes, free-market advocates can point out that when a state steps in to help a dying sector of the economy, it is actually harming economic growth by sinking financial capital—a limited resource—into inefficient activities and diverting funds from more innovative enterprises. A job saved in an obsolete economic sector, they will say correctly, is a job—often many jobs—forgone elsewhere in the economy. But that’s a very hard argument for a politician to make. As the great free-market economist Milton Friedman frequently observed, a business closing gets on the television news, while the new businesses that get created from the reallocated capital go unnoticed because they are so widely dispersed.

Mitt Romney has run smack into this problem during his campaign for the Republican nomination. Bain Capital, the firm he led, was a pure engine of creative destruction: a private investment fund that bought troubled businesses, restructured them (often by firing people), and sold them for a profit. Even some of Romney’s Republican opponents, who know better, couldn’t resist attacking him for his entrepreneurial work; Newt Gingrich went so far as to run ads featuring workers who had lost their jobs because of Bain’s restructuring. Romney contended that Bain had helped create 100,000 new jobs, which may be true, but—underscoring Friedman’s point—no one knows exactly where they are.

It may therefore be necessary for defenders of creative destruction to balance Schumpeter with some form of social support. It is misguided to protect superseded firms and industries, they would maintain, but helpingpeople displaced by economic progress is a moral imperative. They would argue for the implementation of a “compassionate capitalism,” perhaps including unemployment benefits, retraining, and various welfare services. (These should be designed not to become disincentives to work, as they frequently have been in the past.) A compassionate capitalism wouldn’t merely be humane; it would also help preserve capitalism, because in a democracy, creative destruction cannot occur without some type of safety net. Workers who risk losing their jobs and lack any social support will soon vote an end to free markets.

Private Equity, Capitalism’s Secret Weapon

Created in the United States in 1946, private equity funds are collective investment schemes that didn’t become serious economic players until the 1970s in Silicon Valley. Early private equity investors, also known as venture capitalists, would buy shares in promising new industries like high-tech and sell their investments at a considerable profit. Eventually, private equity funds spread beyond Silicon Valley and invested in a wider range of industries. Today, they raise capital from cash-rich investors—pension funds, insurance companies, wealthy individuals—or borrow it from commercial banks and other financial institutions. Then they invest in various companies. The goal of the private equity fund is to sell those investments—often to another private equity fund—and turn a profit.

Smart investors at private equity funds select poorly managed companies whose value can be increased by extending, reducing, or reshuffling their activities. After buying a significant number of shares in such a company, a private equity fund can redirect or replace its management structure. Private equity managers may terminate redundant workers to increase productivity; scale back or eliminate less profitable departments; or use the company’s existing business to extend its brand and reach. For instance, Bain Capital, the private equity fund founded by Mitt Romney, turned Staples from a local brand into a national office supplier.

In the simplest sense, private equity investors reallocate capital where it will be most effective—from less productive uses to more profitable ones. Private equity funds propel capitalism’s creative destruction: by promoting innovation and punishing obsolescence, they fuel economic growth.

At the same time, by speeding up processes that might otherwise take a long time—such as the decline of an old industry and the emergence of a new one—private equity funds make the social costs of creative destruction more visible. Those who defend free markets, creative destruction, and private equity must do a better job of explaining their genuine benefits while supporting effective social policies to help workers make smoother transitions from old industries to new ones.
Schumpeter himself prophesied that the unpopularity of capitalism would eventually kill it. He doubted the capacity and willingness of the bourgeoisie to defend capitalism’s legitimacy, and he doubted the heirs of capitalist entrepreneurs even more. He knew many, both in his native Austria and in the United States, who squandered the capital that their parents and grandparents had accumulated and who were eager for the Left to forgive them for having inherited their wealth.
The ultimate enemies of capitalism, in Schumpeter’s view, were intellectuals, many of whom found it outrageous that businessmen had so much more money than they did. Envy—and the indisputable imperfections of capitalism—made these thinkers and writers, including some of Schumpeter’s Harvard colleagues, yearn for a better economic system. Ironically, the wealth created by capitalism had bankrolled a massive expansion of the educational system, empowering the intellectual class that hated that wealth. “Capitalism inevitably . . . educates and subsidizes a vested interest in social unrest,” Schumpeter noted. The rhetorical talent of the intellectuals, he predicted darkly, would help bring capitalism to its knees.
Schumpeter’s pessimism about capitalists’ heirs may have gone too far: some of them, especially in America, have put their money to good use in philanthropies, museums, and foundations that don’t lobby against capitalism. His characterization of intellectuals, though, remains as accurate today as when he made it decades ago. And while it’s true, of course, that socialism as Schumpeter feared it has all but disappeared, the Obama administration’s enthusiasm for economic intervention shows that American openness to creative destruction is not a given. Perhaps the most virulent opponent of creative destruction is the riotous antiglobalization movement. Perpetually laying siege to G-20 meetings, the antiglobalists refuse to accept—or fail to understand—that competition spurs innovation and that innovation spurs economic growth and human progress. Thanks to trade, market competition has become global, establishing a worldwide division of labor that dramatically reduces the costs of consumer goods, from food to cell phones and beyond. In the antiglobalists’ dreamworld, everything would become local again—a fantasy that, were it ever to become reality, would limit access to many goods to the wealthy alone.

Can a Schumpeterian candidate make it to the White House in 2012? Yes, but in the current climate of economic uncertainty, he will need to be a talented rhetorician. Otherwise, America in a second Obama term will probably continue to move in a European direction, with the government playing an increasingly activist role in the economy, protecting out-of-date ways of doing business. And without the liberating fire of creative destruction, America will follow Europe down the path of slow growth, high unemployment, and decline.

Guy Sorman is the author of Economics Does Not Lie.

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303360504577408320289444822.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Fed Flags Fiscal Risks
By KRISTINA PETERSON And JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

Federal Reserve officials in April flagged concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and its impact on the economy, according to minutes of their last policy meeting released Wednesday.

Central bank officials overall thought the economic outlook was still on a path of "moderate" economic growth that would gradually pick up, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's April 24-25 meeting, released after the customary three-week lag.

While Fed officials have indicated they aren't planning to take any immediate new actions to spur economic growth, "several" officials "indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough," the minutes said.

Among the concerns that Fed officials noted last month was the U.S. fiscal situation. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned lawmakers about the potential effect of the "fiscal cliff," which includes the Bush-era tax cuts and a payroll-tax break expiring at the end of this year, as well as more than $1 trillion in spending cuts scheduled to kick in at the beginning of 2013.

Fed officials expected that the government sector would be a "drag on economic growth over coming quarters" and saw the U.S. fiscal situation as a "sizable risk." If lawmakers don't reach agreement on a plan for the federal budget, "a sharp fiscal tightening could occur at the start of 2013," the minutes noted. That uncertainty "could lead businesses to defer hiring and investment," officials worried at the meeting. Agreement on a long-term plan could alleviate some of that uncertainty.

Fed officials also debated how much of the weakness in the job market would ease when the economic recovery accelerates.

"Participants expressed a range of views on the extent to which the unemployment rate was being boosted by structural factors such as mismatches between the skills of unemployed workers and those being demanded by hiring firms," the minutes stated.

The officials also explored making changes to the Fed's new communications strategy and agreed to discuss further the advantages and drawbacks of using "simple monetary rules" as "guides for monetary policy decision making" and for external communications about their policy.

In April, the Fed's policy-making body reaffirmed its plan to keep short-term interest rates near zero through late 2014. However, projections released on the same day showed some Fed officials expected the central bank to start raising interest rates earlier than they had in January.

For instance, only four Fed officials now expect the Fed to wait until 2015 for its first-interest rate increase, down from six in January. The minutes noted that views ranged in part because officials had different projections for how the economic recovery would proceed and the pace of the decline in unemployment. Some officials also thought it was appropriate to keep short-term interest rates lower for "a longer period" when the federal-funds rate had been near zero.

All 17 Fed officials make quarterly projections, but only the central bank's board of governors and five regional bank presidents vote on the path of monetary policy at FOMC meetings.

The Fed also decided to change the schedule for the meetings of its policy-making body. The FOMC will now meet over two days, instead of alternating one- and two-day meetings. Quarterly economic projections will be released and Mr. Bernanke will conduct a press conference after the meetings in the third month of each quarter: March, June, September and December.

Some Fed officials had "expressed a preference for the two-day format over the one-day format" and Mr. Bernanke raised the possibility of changing the meeting schedule "to incorporate more two-day meetings to allow additional time for discussion," the minutes noted.

In their assessment of the economy at the April meeting, Fed officials viewed the economy as continuing to "expand moderately." Strains in global financial markets continued to pose a risk. Labor-market conditions showed improvement, although Fed officials noted that unusually warm weather may have inflated employment figures earlier in the year. Most officials thought the inflation outlook was balanced, though "some" officials worried that "maintaining the current highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run could erode the stability of inflation expectations and risk higher inflation."


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http://frontpagemag.com/2012/05/16/warrens-story-falls-apart/print/

Warren’s Story Falls Apart

Posted By Arnold Ahlert On May 16, 2012 @ 12:45 am In Daily Mailer,FrontPage | 28 Comments

The wheels have finally fallen off Massachusetts Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren’s diversity wagon. The reliably leftist Boston Globe has issued a retraction of Warren’s claim that she is 1/32 Cherokee Indian. “Correction: Because of a reporting error, a story in the May 1 Metro section and the accompanying headline incorrectly described the 1894 document that was purported to list Elizabeth Warren’s great-great-great grandmother as a Cherokee,” the paper writes. “The document, alluded to in a family newsletter found by the New England Historic Genealogical Society, was an application for a marriage license, not the license itself. Neither the society nor the Globe has seen the primary document, whose existence has not been proven.” The original story? A headline piece in the Sunday Metro section. The correction? The third item on the correction page, typically buried deep in the paper. The larger issue? The transparent efforts of a biased media to maintain the fiction as long as possible.

The Globe’s original story, published on May 1st, reported that a document proved Warren’s claim. “A record unearthed Monday shows that US Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren has a great-great-great grandmother listed in an 1894 document as a Cherokee, said a genealogist at the New England Historic and Genealogy Society.” The same day the Boston Herald reported that “the Harvard Law professor’s campaign last night finally came up with what they claim is a Cherokee connection–her great-great-great-grandmother.” ABC News also did a May 1st report, noting that genealogist Chris Child of the New England Historic Genealogical Association ”set out to hunt down Warren’s ancestry last Thursday. In less than a week, he discovered documents citing an 1894 marriage record that lists Warren’s great-great-great grandmother, O. C. Sarah Smith as Cherokee, meaning that Warren is 1/32nd Native American.”

On May 4th the New York Times  took it a step further, claiming that Republican opponent Scott Brown’s questioning of Warren’s assertion “is straight from the Republican cookbook of fake controversy,” and that “Massachusetts Republicans place doubts on her racial claims to portray her as an opportunistic academic seeking special treatment.” Writer Kevin Noble Maillard, a law professor enrolled as a member of the Seminole Nation of Oklahoma, offer his own take on the controversy. “For the Cherokee Nation, Warren is ‘Indian enough;’ she has the same blood quantum as Cherokee Nation Chief Bill John Baker,” he wrote.

The meme, “Warren is 1/32 Cherokee” continued to be promoted by several different news outlets, most of which did nothing more than regurgitate the original story, absent any independent fact-checking. These included CBS News, the Huffington Post and the Associated Press. The most hilarious assertion regarding Warren’s claim came courtesy of the Washington Post’s David Treuer. In a column entitled, “Elizabeth Warren says she’s Native American. So she is.,” Treuer makes the absurd claim that “an Indian identity is something someone claims for oneself; it is a matter of choice.” He further excuses Warren’s assertion, contending that “to be a woman from Oklahoma of working-class upbringing — and to want not only to walk the halls of power but to help build them — you have to press whatever advantage you have. Doing so might seem distasteful to those who’ve never had to do it because they were born into privilege and power.” In other words, lying is acceptable — as long as one’s lower class and purported ethnicity qualifies one to do so.

Despite the mainstream media pile-on, it didn’t take long to prove that Elizabeth Warren’s assertion was nothing more than wishful thinking. Breitbart.com was apparently willing to do something most other news organizations were unwilling to do: conduct an actual investigation of Warren’s assertion. They reviewed original marriage records found in the files of the Logan County, Oklahoma Court Clerk’s office in Guthrie, Oklahoma, and spoke with Logan County Court clerk ReJeania Zmek. Breitbart discovered that the original May 12, 1894 marriage license and the corresponding May 13, 1894 certificate of marriage of William J. Crawford, great-great-grand uncle of Elizabeth Warren, and Mary E. (Long) Wolford contains a column for the race of the bride and the groom — but both of them left it blank

Zmek offered another indication that something was amiss. “In modern times we keep marriage license applications,” she said. “The way they’re issued now, you do the application, then you do the license. We currently do keep records of marriage license applications.” Yet she revealed that this practice didn’t begin until 1950.

Zmek then revealed (probably inadvertently) why many Americans consider mainstream media claims of even-handed reporting beneath contempt. She confirmed to Breitbart that “no other news organization had contacted her to date on any national topic or to inquire about the validity of this purported 1894 Logan County, Oklahoma marriage license application or anything related to the 1894 marriage of William J. Crawford.”

Such “errors of omission” might be acceptable were it evenly applied to both sides of the political spectrum. Yet one need only compare the Washington Post’s recent effort to portray Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney as an anti-gay bully based on a single incident that happened 47 years ago with the mainstream media’s calculated incuriosity regarding large portions of president Obama’s life, which still remain off the record almost four years into his time in office. Furthermore, as the Journolist scandal of 2008 reveals, leftist media members coordinated efforts to keep Jeremiah Wright and his incendiary rhetoric from damaging the president during that election run.

Elizabeth Warren can continue to insist that she is part Cherokee, whether based on dubious assertions, like her grandfather having “high cheekbones,” or ridiculous rationale such as the claim that she did so “in the hopes that it might mean that I would be invited to a luncheon, a group something that might happen with people who are like I am.” And the leftist media can continue to protect her by asserting that she didn’t use such claims to advance her career. But the fact remains that the University of Pennsylvania, who listed her as a minority in a “Minority Equity Report” from 1987 to 1994, and Harvard University, who listed her as a diversity hire in 1996, were more than willing to do so based on nothing more than hearsay. And the mainstream media, as well as the New England Historic Genealogical Association, which is now saying that “the original [marriage license] application cannot be located” were also willing to take Warren at face value, or base their entire assertions of proof on an unsubstantiated March 2006 family newsletter quoting an amateur genealogist.

Yet it remains to be seen if the people of Massachusetts will be as flexible regarding the truth on election day next November. Undoubtedly they will base their votes for either Republican Scott Brown or Warren on a number of issues. Warren might want to hope that personal credibility isn’t one of them.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article printed from FrontPage Magazine: http://frontpagemag.com

URL to article: http://frontpagemag.com/2012/05/16/warrens-story-falls-apart/


46270
Data Watch
________________________________________
Housing starts rose 2.6% in April to 717,000 units at an annual rate, well above consensus To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury - Chief Economist
Bob Stein, CFA - Senior Economist
Date: 5/16/2012
Housing starts rose 2.6% in April to 717,000 units at an annual rate, well above the 685,000 rate the consensus expected. Starts are up 29.9% versus a year ago.
The gain in starts in April was due to a 2.3% rise in single-family units and a 3.2% rise in multi-family units. Single-family starts are up 18.8% from a year ago, while multi-family starts are up 63.0%.
Starts rose in the South and Midwest, but declined in the Northeast and West.
New building permits fell 7.0% in April to a 715,000 annual rate, coming in below the consensus expected pace of 730,000. Compared to a year ago, permits for single-unit homes are up 18.5% while permits for multi-family units are up 35.6%.
Implications: The recovery in home building is definitely underway. Housing starts rose 2.6% in April to 717,000 units at an annual rate and are up 29.9% from a year ago. In addition, March housing starts were revised substantially higher from 654,000 to 699,000 units at an annual rate. The total number of homes under construction (started, but not yet finished) increased for the eighth straight month, the first time this has happened since 2004-05. Permits to build homes, although declining 7.0% in April, are up 23.7% from a year ago. Some people may see the April decline as a sign of weakness, but this weakness was all focused in multi-family permits which fell 20.8% in April after a 32.3% rise in March. Single-family permits actually rose 1.9% in April and are at the second highest level in two years, signaling continued gains in home building in the coming year. It looks like the second quarter of 2012 will be the fifth straight quarter where home building boosts real GDP. Multi-family activity – both starts and permits – has been leading the way and we expect that to continue, particularly now that a legal settlement means more foreclosures can move forward. Some people occupying homes they have not been paying for will now have to go elsewhere and rent. Based on population growth and “scrappage,” housing starts should eventually rise to about 1.5 million units per year (probably by 2016), which means the recovery in home building is still very young. For more on the housing market, please see our research report (link).
===========

here it is:

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2011/11/2/housing-at-an-inflection-point

46271
Politics & Religion / Good thing we are shrinking our navy
« on: May 16, 2012, 08:19:43 AM »
Stratfor

The Chinese Marine Surveillance (CMS) announced May 9 that 36 new vessels are expected to join its surveillance fleet by 2013. The CMS fleet's new ships reportedly include seven 1,500-ton ships, 15 1,000-ton ships and 14 600-ton ships. The CMS is one of five Chinese maritime law enforcement agencies, and is tasked with maintaining China's presence in disputed waters and enforcing and surveilling Beijing's claimed economic exclusive zone, which is extensive and difficult to monitor. The new shipbuilding announcement comes while China is locked in a standoff with the Philippines over Huangyan Island in the South China Sea. The standoff began April 8 when two CMS ships blocked a Philippine warship from boarding eight Chinese fishing vessels anchored in the contested region. While both Manila and Beijing have publicly committed to resolving the standoff diplomatically, the situation remains tense and Chinese authorities say they are prepared for an escalation by Manila. The growing capabilities of China's maritime enforcement agencies allow Beijing to strengthen its presence within China's claimed maritime territory and to better position itself to respond to any clash, such as the current Huangyan Island standoff. China's bolstered maritime enforcement fleet and assertive maneuvering will increase the likelihood of maritime confrontation in a region rife with other claimants.


46272
second post of day

Allysia Finley writing May 15 in the Journal's online Political Diary:


California Gov. Jerry Brown's revised 94-page budget isn't exactly a scintillating read, but literati might appreciate its irony. Just take the governor's narrative explaining why his January revenue forecast was $4.3 billion off the mark.

While overall personal income tax collections have increased modestly, capital gains revenues are down by 5% (after growing by 92% in 2010), and corporate returns have fallen by 14% over the past year. That's "atypical," the budget notes, because capital gains usually only slip in recessions, and national corporate profits are growing smartly. Mr. Brown, a Democrat, attributes the economic aberration to a "sudden and unexpected increase in the use of tax credits."

Of course, what he really means is that corporations are exploiting loopholes that legislators have carved out for their favored industries (solar being the biggest). Many businesses wouldn't play in California otherwise. High-income individuals, meanwhile, are likely seeking shelter from the state's confiscatory tax regime, which takes 10.3% of every dollar they earn. That could be in Texas or tax-exempt investments.


46273
Yes, its happening pretty much everywhere.  The question presented is the nature of the response.

46274
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Democracy and the Euro
« on: May 16, 2012, 08:03:50 AM »
One way to look at this week's events in Greece is as George Papandreou's revenge. As Prime Minister last November, he proposed that Greeks vote on whether they could live with the conditions the EU and IMF were imposing in return for a bailout. The idea sent markets into a tizzy, Mr. Papandreou lost his job, and the referendum never occurred.

But Greek voters are having their say anyway. On Tuesday Greek President Karolos Papoulias called a new election for next month, after no party could put together a majority following this month's splintered election.

The far-left Syriza coalition, which finished second in the voting, is rejecting the bailout terms and demanding an end to fiscal restraint and economic reform. Presumably the Greeks will now have a no-holds-barred debate about the consequences of their policy choices, including possible ouster from the euro zone.

The rest of Europe may find this inconvenient, but this strikes us as progress and in any event was inevitable. That was the wisdom behind Mr. Papandreou's stillborn idea. Like every other country in the EU, Greece is still a democracy. Greek voters reserve the right to say no to Brussels, or even to elect those willing to abrogate agreements made in their names by former governments.

For decades, the European conceit has been that voters would gladly cede their national right to democratic accountability in return for Continental peace and prosperity. This worked as long as there was prosperity. But now that pan-European governance includes painful policy choices imposed from afar, the national publics want their franchise to mean something.

Angela Merkel may want to enshrine fiscal rectitude for all time in a fiscal pact. The German Chancellor may even be right as a policy matter to want to do that given that her taxpayers will otherwise have to pay. But the fatal flaw in her vision is that she can't control the course of democratic events outside Germany's borders. All the more so when she has become arguably the main issue in Greek politics, complete with demagogic posters of her in Nazi garb.

In a sense the Greeks are using their elections as a way to renegotiate the terms of their most recent €130 billion bailout by the rest of Europe. They assume that if they refuse to go along, the Germans and the European Central Bank will give in and ease the terms of fiscal retrenchment and reform.

The belief, at least on the Greek left, is that the country will be able both to stay in the euro and keep its generous welfare state, albeit with some mild adjustment. Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras is even proposing to hire 100,000 more public employees.

European leaders will be doing everyone a favor if they make clear that there is no such easy way out. If Greeks want to continue being rescued by the rest of Europe, they must meet European terms. If Greeks can't manage that, then Athens will get no more bailout cash and will have to find the money to pay its own bills.

Enlarge Image

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Greek President Karolos Papoulias.
.And if Athens fails to do so, then default and ouster from the euro zone are likely, with all of the predictably terrible consequences for Greek living standards following the return of the drachma and devaluation. Instead of staying as part of modern Europe, Greece will slide toward a Third World future.

European leaders need to deliver this message not as a threat, but as the reality of what Greeks are risking if they reject reform. At least this is a choice Greeks will be making for themselves. The lesson will not be lost on voters elsewhere in the euro zone.

Europe's leaders can't repeal democracy on the Continent, and therefore they can't ask countries in the euro zone for more than their politicians can deliver or their populations can take. This means admitting that the bailout model that Europe adopted for Greece two years ago has failed and is increasing political polarization across Europe, and not only in Greece.

The euro zone was conceived as a currency union among countries adhering to certain basic fiscal rules. Had it stuck to that vision in this crisis—rather than turn it into a fiscal or debt union—and let Greece face the consequences of its economic mismanagement from the beginning, Greece might have defaulted and stayed within the euro.

Now so much damage has been done that it's hard to see such an outcome. Trying to turn the euro into a larger political union has put the entire euro zone in jeopardy.


46275
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Brown vs. Christie
« on: May 16, 2012, 07:19:54 AM »
In his January 2011 inaugural address, California Gov. Jerry Brown declared it a "time to honestly assess our financial condition and make the tough choices." Plainly the choices weren't tough enough: Mr. Brown has just announced that he faces a state budget deficit of $16 billion—nearly twice the $9.2 billion he predicted in January. In Sacramento Monday, he coupled a new round of spending cuts with a call for some hefty new tax hikes.

In his own inaugural address back in January 2010, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie also spoke of making tough choices for the people of his state. For his first full budget, Mr. Christie faced a deficit of $10.7 billion—one-third of projected revenues. Not only did Mr. Christie close that deficit without raising taxes, he is now plumping for a 10% across-the-board tax cut.

It's not just looks that make Mr. Brown Laurel to Mr. Christie's Hardy. It's also their political choices.

When the Obama administration's Transportation Department called on California to cough up billions for a high-speed bullet train or lose federal dollars, Mr. Brown went along. In sharp contrast, when the feds delivered a similar ultimatum to Mr. Christie over a proposed commuter rail tunnel between New York and New Jersey, he nixed the project, saying his state just couldn't afford it.

On the "millionaire's" tax, Mr. Brown says that California desperately needs to approve one if the state is to recover. The one on California's November ballot kicks in at income of $250,000 and would raise the top rate to 13.3% from 10.3% on incomes above $1 million. Again in sharp contrast, when New Jersey Democrats attempted to embarrass Mr. Christie by sending a millionaire's tax to his desk, he called their bluff and promptly vetoed it.

On public-employee unions, Mr. Brown can talk a good game—at Monday's press conference, he announced a 5% pay cut for state workers, and he has proposed pension reform. Yet for all his pull with unions (the last time he was governor, he gave California's public-sector unions collective-bargaining rights), Gov. Brown, a Democrat, has not been able to accomplish what Republican Gov. Christie has: persuade a Democratic legislature to require government workers to kick in more for their health care and pensions.

Now, no one will confuse New Jersey with free-market Hong Kong. Still, because the challenges facing the Golden and Garden States are so similar, the different paths taken by their respective governors are all the more striking. And these two men are by no means alone.

Our states today are conducting a profound and contentious rethink about the right level of taxes, spending and government. Most obvious is the battle for Wisconsin. There Republican Gov. Scott Walker finds himself pitted against public-sector unions that successfully forced a recall election for June 5 after the legislature adopted the governor's package of labor reforms last spring.

Amid the turmoil—Democratic legislators fled the state to prevent a vote, while union-backed protesters occupied the Capitol—Mr. Walker looked weakened. Now he has taken the lead in polls. More than that, voters have taken the lesson: A recent Marquette University Law School poll showed only 12% of Wisconsin voters listing "restoring collective bargaining rights for public employees" as their priority.

Indeed, the American Midwest today is home to some of the biggest experiments in government. Republicans now hold both the governorships and the legislatures in Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, and in Wisconsin they control all but the Senate. In each they are pushing for smaller, more accountable government. The outlier is Illinois, where Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and his Democratic legislature pushed through a tax increase on their heavily indebted state.

Enlarge Image

CloseGetty Images
 
California Gov. Jerry Brown
.Now ask yourself this. Can anyone look at Illinois and say to himself: I have seen the future and it works?

Indiana's Mitch Daniels, a Republican, is probably the only governor who can truly claim to have turned around a failing state. That may change if we get eight years of Mr. Christie in New Jersey. Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, also a Republican, may be another challenger for the title, having just succeeded in pushing through arguably the most far-reaching reform of any state public-school system in America.

Hard economic times bring their own lessons. Though few have been spared the ravages of the last recession and the sluggish recovery, those in states where taxes are light, government lives within its means, and the climate is friendly to investment have learned the value of the arrangement they have. They are not likely to give it up.

Meanwhile, leaders in some struggling states have taken notice. They know the road to fiscal hell is paved with progressive intentions. The question regarding the sensible ones is whether they have the will and wherewithal to impose the reforms they know their states need on the interest groups whose political and economic clout is so closely tied with the public purse.

Mr. Brown's remarks Monday suggest the answer to this question is no.


46276
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Frost: Big Danger w Big Banks
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:49:43 AM »


Tom Frost: The Big Danger With Big Banks
Taxpayer safety nets such as the FDIC should be available only to banks that are in the loan business, not those in the investment business..
By TOM C. FROST

In the early 1950s, when I was a young college graduate and a new employee of the Frost Bank, my great-Uncle Joe Frost, then CEO, told me that the very first goal we had was to return the deposits we received from customers. Our obligation was to take care of the community's liquid assets and manage them safely so others could use them (via loans) to grow.

Frost Bank was not big enough to be saved by the government, Uncle Joe told me at the time, so we would always need to maintain strong liquidity, safe assets and adequate capital. I was impressed that making money was not high on his list of priorities, but he implied that profits would come if we observed sound banking principles.

When we look at banking in the United States today, Uncle Joe's values seem so long ago and far away. The industry is now dominated by a few large banks.

In 1970, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the five largest U.S. institutions owned 17% of banking industry assets; in 2010 that share was 52%. Their business has expanded well beyond the role as steward of the community's assets into riskier endeavors that chase supersized returns.

As the financial crisis of 2008 showed, the very diversification, structure and size of most of our largest banks put the community's assets at tremendous risk. They had become "too big to fail," and the government—really the American taxpayers—had no choice but to keep their colossal mistakes from bringing down the economy.

But as Harvey Rosenblum, the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's executive vice president and director of research, wrote last year, "These rescues have penalized equity holders while protecting bondholders and, to a lesser extent, bank managers." In other words, by protecting people from the consequences of their errors, the bailouts raised the risk that the same errors will be made in the future.

There are many good proposals for minimizing, if not entirely eliminating, the likelihood of another "too big to fail" crisis of the sort we faced in 2008. Perhaps most prominent among them is the recommendation that we require banks to hold additional capital to protect themselves (and the rest of us) from loans and investments gone sour.

But even these recommendations would allow the big banks to keep their traditional FDIC-insured deposits, alongside their investment enterprises within the parent company. I suggest that we divide the two functions into separately owned, managed and regulated entities. That's the only way we can ensure that their riskier businesses don't undermine the insured deposits that are the foundation of a stable and healthy economy.

Taxpayer safety-net programs, such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), should be available only to banks in business to provide insured deposits. Financial institutions that provide primarily investment, hedging and speculative services don't deserve protection either by the FDIC's explicit guarantees or by an implicit understanding that taxpayers will bail them out because there is no other alternative. Indeed, this kind of protection is a perversion of capitalism and can distort its good outcomes.

Uncle Joe was not a fan of the FDIC—he said it took his money to subsidize his inefficient competitors. I support the FDIC as a protection for the depositor, but, with a nod to my uncle's wisdom, I believe this safety net should apply only to banks that are allowed to receive FDIC-insured deposits.

There are actually two business cultures in the banking business, and they should be separated. The first focuses on establishing long-term customer relationships, building the communities in which the bank does business, and preserving depositors' liquid assets. Most of America's smaller banks do business this way, and this banking culture needs to be sustained for the sake of local, regional and national economic well being.

The second culture allows, and even encourages, risk taking that threatens the first culture if the two are bound within one institution. Please don't misunderstand: Financial institutions should be free to engage in services that insured-deposit banks can't. But they shouldn't expect taxpayers to bail them out when their risky activities fail.

We need a real and impregnable firewall that keeps one part of the banking system—and the economy—from being consumed when the other goes into flames.

The combination of both banking cultures in a single institution—which had been separated for decades by the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 until the 1990s—brought us to the doorstep of global financial-system collapse a few years ago. If the nation stays on its current path, we could see another crisis.

We are approaching a state of affairs in which an oligopoly of a few major institutions dominates our entire banking system. There's little evidence those institutions will share the concerns and dedication of my Uncle Joe—and many like-minded bankers in his time and since. If we truly separate the cultures of commercial and investment banking, the clients of both will prosper.

Mr. Frost is chairman emeritus of San Antonio, Texas-based Frost Bank.


46277
Politics & Religion / WSJ: Iranian rapper fatwa'd
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:45:49 AM »


Iranian Rapper Fears for His Life After Fatwa
by FARNAZ FASSIHI

BEIRUT—Iranian rapper Shahin Najafi expected his song calling on a Shiite saint to save Iran from its current rulers to stir up controversy, but he never imagined it might cost him his life.

He is now being dubbed the Salman Rushdie of music after two influential clerics in Iran issued fatwas—religious edicts—justifying his murder on grounds of blasphemy.

"I am still in disbelief. I'm only 31, with my whole life ahead of me," said Mr. Najafi in an interview from Germany, where he lives and, since last week, has been in hiding under the protection of German police.

Mr. Najafi says he doesn't regret the song and refuses to apologize, arguing that invoking a saint's name is a freedom of expression and not a religious insult. "Each person has to pay a price for what they want. I will never apologize for my art and for speaking the truth about Iran's government," said Mr. Najafi.

Iranian officials haven't commented on the fatwas or denounced them. But the case could present a new public-image problem for Iran ahead of talks next week with the international community in Baghdad over its nuclear program.

In recent months, Iran has sought to improve its image as a rogue nation by offering conciliatory remarks to build trust with the West. The efforts paid off to some extent at an initial meeting in March in Istanbul, where both sides claimed the negotiations ended on a positive note, paving the way for a second round set to begin on May 23 in Baghdad. Iran says the world should trust its word that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

The senior clerics empowered to issue fatwas act independently of the government—but anyone who carries out a death fatwa is granted impunity under Iranian law.

"Iranian authorities could make it very clear that people who are inciting murder could be held accountable, and that's something they aren't currently doing," said Ann Harrison, Amnesty International's deputy program director for Middle East and Africa.

After Mr. Najafi released his song "Naqi" online on May 7, Iranian media and conservative bloggers said it was in violation of an earlier fatwa calling for the execution of anyone who blasphemes the 10th saint of Shiite Islam, Ali an-Naqi. A subsequent fatwa by another grand ayatollah declared that a singer who had been insulting the saint was guilty of blasphemy—giving the green light for his followers to kill Mr. Najafi, though the fatwa didn't mention the rapper by name. Both rulings have been repeated in Iranian media.

An Iranian website, Shia-Online, subsequently put a $100,000 bounty on Mr. Najafi's head, and more than 100 people, joining an online "campaign to execute Shahin Najafi," have pledged further rewards.

Mr. Najafi, a native of a small port town in southern Iran, fled to Germany in 2005 after he said an intelligence agent threatened him for staging underground concerts. His angry lyrics touch on rights abuses, stifling social norms and other difficulties of life in Iran, and in "Naqi," he calls on the saint to save the country. He says he is too young to go into hiding, but fears he might never be safe in Europe.

After the fatwa issued by the Iranian revolution's founding father Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini against Mr. Rushdie in 1989, the British-Indian writer went into hiding for years, and Iran suffered diplomatic fallout with Europe. While Mr. Najafi isn't nearly as renowned as Mr. Rushdie and the clerics who issued the fatwa aren't as powerful as Iran's supreme leader, the threat to his life is serious, human-rights organizations say.

—David Crawford contributed to this article.
 
A version of this article appeared May 16, 2012, on page A10 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Rapper Fears for His Life After Fatwa.


46278
Politics & Religion / Stratfor: Zeta-Sinaloa conflict intensifies
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:35:31 AM »
second post of morning

Mexico Security Memo: Zetas-Sinaloa Conflict Intensifies
May 16, 2012 | 1255 GMT

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 Criminals have assembled dramatic displays of corpses throughout Mexico since May 4, when 23 victims were arranged in two separate displays in Nuevo Laredo. Narcomantas accompanied both, the first signed "El Chapo" and the other unsigned but denouncing Gulf cartel leaders and a former sicario, or hit man, for the Sinaloa Federation. On May 9, Mexican authorities discovered 18 bodies near Guadalajara, Jalisco state. According to state authorities, Los Zetas and the Zetas-affiliated Milenio cartel were responsible. And in the highest-profile incident, 49 dismembered bodies were dumped along a highway near Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state, along with a narcomanta in which Los Zetas claimed responsibility.

These public displays of violence all relate to the ongoing conflict between the Sinaloa Federation and its allies and Los Zetas and their allies in northeastern Mexico, in particular over Nuevo Laredo, a critical plaza for Los Zetas. This conflict has security implications throughout Mexico.

Since September 2011, the Sinaloa Federation and its allies, the Gulf cartel and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), have challenged Los Zetas in cities along routes leading to Nuevo Laredo, such as Veracruz, Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria. Sinaloa announced its recent challenge to Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo in a March 27 narcomanta. Los Zetas responded in kind along the route from Veracruz city to Nuevo Laredo and in traditional strongholds of Sinaloa and its allies, including Culiacan, Sinaloa and Guadalajara, Jalisco state, areas as critical to Sinaloa as Nuevo Laredo is to Los Zetas.

Continuing pressure from Sinaloa in Nuevo Laredo may force Los Zetas to divert resources from their other plazas to defend Nuevo Laredo. This limits Los Zetas' ability to defend plazas from additional incursions or to counter existing incursions like one in Cancun, where CJNG is competing for control of the plaza.


.The Mexican military also is mounting strong efforts against Los Zetas in states such as Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Nuevo Leon and Coahuila. The arrests or deaths of Los Zetas members like the March loss of two Nuevo Laredo plaza bosses in military operations open up even more opportunities for the Sinaloa Federation and its allies. This could well translate into additional turf wars in Zetas-controlled territory -- and in the turf of the Sinaloa Federation and its allies when Los Zetas strike back. While Nuevo Laredo is critical for Los Zetas, it is only one battlefield in the war.

May 7
■Authorities seized 32 metric tons of monomethylamine, a chemical precursor used for the production of methamphetamine, from a ship in Veracruz city, Veracruz state. The shipment, which originated in China, was labeled falsely as containing aluminum sulfate.
May 8
■Authorities rescued 12 kidnapping victims from a house in Tala, Jalisco state. Authorities were alerted to the house after one of the victims escaped.
■Gunmen killed a Centro de Readaptacion Social prison guard director in Torreon, Coahuila state, in his vehicle at an intersection.
■Authorities detained six members of La Oficina in Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes state. At the time of their arrest, the six were planning to kidnap a person who did not pay an extortion fee.
■Gunmen established several roadblocks in central Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, by forcing motorists from their vehicles and then setting the vehicles ablaze.
■Gunmen ambushed a group of police officers along a road near Xalostoc, Guerrero state, killing two officers.
May 9
■Authorities discovered 18 headless bodies along a road in Ixtlahuacan de los Membrillo, Jalisco state, accompanied by a narcomanta signed "Milenio-Zetas alliance."
■Authorities seized 766.35 kilograms (1,689 pounds) of marijuana from a vehicle in Tijuana, Baja California state.
■Authorities seized approximately 14,700 liters (3,880 gallons) of chemical precursors used in the production of illicit drugs in Frontera Hidalgo, Chiapas state.
May 10
■Gunmen opened fire on a police patrol in Torreon, Coahuila state. Casualty information was not available.
■Authorities detained four people in possession of illegal drugs, a sidearm, seven cellphones, a radio and 135 voter ID cards in San Nicolas de los Garza, Nuevo Leon state.
■A firefight between gunmen and the military in Salvador Alvarado, Sinaloa state, killed five gunmen after gunfire ignited their vehicle. Elements of the 9th Military Zone initiated the exchange after encountering a checkpoint set up by the gunmen on Highway 15.
May 11
■Gunmen fired on newspaper El Manana's office in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state, for several minutes and spray-painted an undisclosed message on the building. No injuries were reported.
May 12
■Authorities arrested four people in Tala, Jalisco state, in connection with decapitated bodies found May 9 in Ixtlahuacan de los Membrillos, Jalisco state.
May 13
■Forty-nine dismembered bodies in black bags were dumped near Cadereyta, Nuevo Leon state, along a highway leading to Reynosa, Tamaulipas state. "Z-100%" was spray painted on a nearby wall, suggesting Los Zetas carried out the attack.
■Authorities found the body of Orta Salgado, a police reporter with 20 years of experience, handcuffed and bearing signs of torture in the trunk of a vehicle in Cuernavaca, Morelos state.
■Authorities discovered a dismembered body in Ixlan, Michoacan state, along a highway. A narcomanta signed CJNG and threatening the Knights Templar accompanied the body.
May 14
■Authorities in Luvianos, Mexico state, arrested suspected La Familia Michoacana (LFM) operator Juan Castelan Martinez "El Virulo" on the Tejupilco-Luvianos road. He is believed to have reported to "El Pony" and "La Marrana," the two principal LFM operators in Mexico state.
■Soldiers in the municipality of Chapala, Jalisco state, discovered five bodies in an industrial freezer on a farm. The bodies matched severed body parts found May 9 in Jalisco state.
■Seven men are being held in Chiapas state for allegedly trying to smuggle 6.4 kilograms of methamphetamine through a roadblock in Margaritas, Chiapas state. The drug shipment allegedly originated in Comitlan de Dominguez, Chiapas state, and was bound for Mexico state.
■Authorities seized 136 metric tons of chemical precursors aboard a ship in Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan state. The shipment originated in China and had Honduras listed as its final destination.

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Read more: Mexico Security Memo: Zetas-Sinaloa Conflict Intensifies | Stratfor

46279
Politics & Religion / NE Senate Race
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:34:08 AM »
WSJ
By NAFTALI BENDAVID
A state senator who had been stuck for weeks in third place in polls has won the GOP nomination for a U.S. Senate seat from Nebraska, continuing a pattern of challengers successfully taking on prominent Republicans in party primaries.

State Sen. Deb Fischer capped a remarkable surge by capturing the Senate nomination on Tuesday. She will face Democrat Bob Kerrey, a former Nebraska senator and governor, in the November election.

Ms. Fischer beat state Attorney General Jon Bruning, who had long been the front-runner, by 41% to 36% with all precincts reporting. Mr. Bruning had won statewide election three times before and raised far more money than Ms. Fischer.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed Ms. Fischer last week, and a political action committee backed by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts spent $200,000 over the weekend on ads criticizing Mr. Bruning and promoting Ms. Fischer.

The result was a setback for powerful conservative groups that backed the third major candidate in the race, state treasurer Don Stenberg.

Mr. Stenberg, who had 19% of the vote, positioned himself as the tea party-style challenger to Mr. Bruning. He benefited from roughly $2 million spent on his behalf by Club For Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks, but he faded at the end.

With the retirement of Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson, Nebraska is considered one of the GOP's best opportunities to pick up a Senate seat. Mr. Kerrey may be the one Democrat who gives his party even a small chance of victory.

Ms. Fischer's surprise win comes a week after an Indiana primary that saw state Treasurer Richard Mourdock upset veteran Sen. Richard Lugar. Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah was forced into a June runoff election with former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist.

Democrats hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, but they are defending more seats than the Republicans. That leaves the two parties in a close fight for the majority, with a chance that the election will yield a 50-50 Senate, requiring the vice president to break ties.

It isn't clear what accounted for Ms. Fischer's last-minute surge, but many voters were apparently turned off by the harsh battle of words between Messrs. Bruning and Stenberg.

The platform of Ms. Fischer, whose family owns a ranch, echoes that of many other Republican candidates. It calls for reducing the size of government, repealing the federal health-care law and balancing the budget.

Democrats said her victory could play into Mr. Kerrey's hands. Ms. Fischer has never run for statewide office, they noted, and her record has received little scrutiny, leading Mr. Kerrey's supporters to question whether she is prepared for the challenges of a major campaign.

Mr. Kerrey was a Navy SEAL in Vietnam whose right leg was amputated after a war injury. He owns a chain of restaurants and fitness clubs in Nebraska. He was elected governor in 1982 and senator in 1988.

Mr. Kerrey has been emphasizing his pattern of reaching across party lines, while Republicans are painting him as a carpetbagger, noting that he lived in New York for a decade while serving as president of the New School in Manhattan.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney won Tuesday's Republican presidential primaries in Nebraska and in Oregon. In Nebraska, the presumptive GOP nominee had 71% of the vote with 93% of precincts reporting, with Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich—all of whom have stopped campaigning—winning the remainder. In Oregon, Mr. Romney had 73% of the vote with 59% of precincts reporting.

The Associated Press also declared Oregon Democratic incumbent Peter DeFazio has won the Democratic primary for his seat in the state's 4th Congressional District. Congressman DeFazio, seeking his 14th term, was facing Oregon State University graduate student Matthew Robinson. Mr. Robinson is the son of Art Robinson, a Cave Junction, Ore., candidate who ran against Mr. DeFazio as a Republican candidate for Congress in 2010 and is again his party's candidate to unseat Mr. DeFazio in November.

In a statement the DeFazio campaign said: "Oregon voters saw through Art Robinson's stunt and soundly defeated his son's bizarre bid for the Democratic nomination." With 57%of the vote tallied Tuesday night, Mr. DeFazio had 90%, to 10 percent for Matthew Robinson, a nuclear engineering student. Matthew Robinson changed his party affiliation to run against Mr. DeFazio.

Write to Naftali Bendavid at naftali.bendavid@wsj.com


46280
Politics & Religion / Stratfor: North Waziristan
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:26:30 AM »

North Waziristan and the U.S. Strategy for Afghanistan
May 16, 2012 | 1244 GMT


U.S. President Barack Obama (R) and Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani in Seoul on March 27

U.S. and Pakistani officials have been intensely negotiating the reopening of a NATO supply route that has been closed for almost six months. On May 14, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said Pakistan needed to close the supply route to make a point, but Islamabad is now ready to move forward. Washington welcomed her comments but cautioned that the two sides are still working on a deal.

After months of hard bargaining a new agreement will probably lead to the reopening of the supply route. The agreement will not resolve every issue, especially since Pakistan wants to redefine the nature of its cooperation with the United States on Afghan security. Pakistan will continue to demand that Washington end its unilateral unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes, which largely target militants in Pakistan's North Waziristan. Pakistan could use the U.S.-Taliban negotiations to extract concessions from the United States on this issue.



Analysis

North Waziristan is the only tribal agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that Pakistan has excluded from its ongoing offensive against Taliban rebels and their transnational allies. Pakistan has avoided attempts to bring North Waziristan under state control. Any such effort would be complicated by the intricate relationships among the area's tribes and militant groups, the region's difficult terrain, Islamabad's lack of resources and other domestic constraints.

.Control of North Waziristan is split between tribal warlord Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the Taliban's Haqqani faction. Neither entity is hostile toward Pakistan. Bahadur is based in the southwestern stretches of North Waziristan, and his militiamen fight NATO and Afghan security forces across the border in Afghanistan. The Haqqanis use their base in the northeastern end of the agency to attack eastern Afghanistan and Kabul. Transnational jihadists such as al Qaeda and its Pakistani allies also sustain themselves in the region by working with Bahadur and the Haqqanis.

Islamabad will have to manage the situation on its Afghan border long after NATO has withdrawn; Pakistan cannot afford belligerent relations with Bahadur or the Haqqanis. Because of this, Pakistan is reluctant to expand its counterinsurgency operations in North Waziristan, but does not consider the area to be permanently outside of state control.

Islamabad's FATA Strategy
Islamabad has tried since the spring of 2009 to retake northwestern areas that fell under Taliban control in great part due to the U.S. war in Afghanistan. Currently the focus is on clearing and holding areas, but eventually Islamabad wants to integrate the tribal areas into the state better than their historically autonomous status would allow.

Pakistan's strategy for North Waziristan is linked to U.S.-Taliban negotiations and the withdrawal of NATO forces. As an integral wing of the Taliban, the Haqqanis would participate in any power-sharing agreement coming out of U.S.-Taliban negotiations and would no longer need to operate out of North Waziristan. Islamabad could then recognize Bahadur's territory and formalize his status. In return, Bahadur and the Haqqanis might assist in isolating and dealing with al Qaeda and its allies in the region.

Islamabad has always preferred this long-term and rather vague counterinsurgency strategy. Pakistan would rather avoid further aggravating the insurgency and being drawn into a protracted fight in the tribal areas that could reverse the modest gains made in the other six agencies. This strategy directly conflicts with Washington's need for the Pakistanis to crack down on both al Qaeda and the Haqqanis. As a result, the United States focused its unilateral UAV strike campaign on North Waziristan, which has caused increased anger in Pakistan over the past five years.

Negotiating With the United States
U.S.-Pakistani relations fell to their lowest point in 2011 after a critical series of events. Meanwhile, the country's civilian leadership experienced an unprecedented surge in power relative to the historically powerful security establishment, leading to a democratization of policymaking. These trends collided on Nov. 26, 2011, when U.S. aircraft killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at a paramilitary outpost on the Afghan border. Islamabad reacted sharply to the incident, shutting down the supply route and linking its reopening to a renegotiated security cooperation relationship.

A key demand in the negotiations has been Pakistan's call for the United States to end unilateral UAV strikes, which have come to symbolize general U.S. unilateral capabilities in the country. Islamabad is especially worried about a repeat of last year's U.S. Special Operations Forces raid that killed al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden in a major urban area in the country. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton exacerbated those concerns during her visit to India in May when she said that Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second most important figure, is hiding in Pakistan.

The Pakistanis realize that an end to UAV strikes will be tough to extract from the United States. On May 4, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani asked legislators to keep in mind that all foreign fighters should be expelled and that Pakistani territory should not be used against any other country. Gilani added that his government will discuss these issues with the Obama administration.

Gilani was signaling to Pakistan's political and security stakeholders that the Pakistanis have a strong incentive to consider expanding their ongoing counterinsurgency offensive to North Waziristan. Such a move could negate Washington's justification for unilateral UAV strikes. But before his government can negotiate with the Obama administration on this matter, Gilani needs majority support, which is why a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry told reporters May 3 that Islamabad is looking into alternatives to the UAV strikes.

However, such a move is not certain to lead Washington to actually halt its UAV strikes. The Pakistanis have another option in this regard. The U.S.-Taliban negotiations offer Islamabad an opportunity to tie North Waziristan's main militant forces into the United States' attempts to craft a political settlement in Afghanistan.

The Diplomatic Route
Washington has long demanded that Afghan insurgents part ways with al Qaeda as a key condition for a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban. The Taliban intend to comply, but enforcement capabilities on both sides of the border are questionable, especially since most of the remnants of the old al Qaeda core are actually in Pakistan. In October 2011, Clinton said the Obama administration sought negotiations with the Haqqanis. Clinton confirmed that Pakistani officials arranged a meeting with representatives of the insurgent faction in the summer of 2011. If Pakistan can bring the Haqqanis and Bahadur to the negotiating table with the United States, Islamabad might stake out a key role in the shaping of a post-NATO Afghanistan.

This arrangement could help the Pakistanis re-establish control over North Waziristan and thus significantly reduce Washington's need for unilateral action on Pakistani territory. Not only does this sync with the U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, but it also addresses Pakistan's need for cooperation from North Waziristan's two principal players to drive out al Qaeda and other hostile militants.

To get Bahadur and the Haqqanis to cooperate, Pakistan would build upon existing understandings. This is very similar to how Islamabad worked with Maulvi Nazir, the pro-Pakistani warlord in South Waziristan, when it launched its limited offensive in that area in the fall of 2009. Any undertaking to rid North Waziristan of hostile militant factions would require Pakistan to take a careful approach that avoids tampering with the interests of Bahadur and the Haqqanis.

What North Waziristan Stands to Gain
The Afghan Taliban, the Haqqanis, Bahadur and other smaller factions have always known that at some point they would have to move away from the transnational jihadists -- but they wanted to gain power first. Over the years, however, the situation was complicated by the rise of an anti-Pakistan insurgency and the souring of U.S.-Pakistani relations. These actors know that Pakistan can help them realize their goals only when it is internally secure and on decent working terms with the United States.

Both North Waziristani groups are interested in working with Pakistan, the only state actor that can facilitate a deal with the United States. The Haqqanis are eyeing a future role as the main political force in eastern Afghanistan and want to gain major representation in Kabul. Bahadur is interested in expanding his territory in North Waziristan. He wants to secure his political and economic interests across the border and he wants formal recognition as a pre-eminent stakeholder in the tribal agency.

Well aware that their interests are best served when the Pakistani side of the border is secure, the Haqqanis and Bahadur have in fact been trying to prevent Pakistani Taliban rebels from fighting Islamabad. These efforts have been largely unsuccessful, but they suggest that both players are willing to do more for the right price, though both factions oppose a major ground offensive in their areas because it could undermine their authority.

To justify turning against other militants, Bahadur and the Haqqanis would also need to show their constituencies that they gained something substantial. If tribes and jihadists in their territory see the factions as having turned against them, they could resort to violence. But just as Islamabad appreciates the need to adjust its policy toward North Waziristan, Bahadur and the Haqqanis realize they need to shift gears. Their ability to take advantage of negotiations and to gain more power in the post-NATO period depends on it.

As was the case when the United States cut a deal with Iraq's Sunni tribes in 2007 to end the anti-U.S. insurgency and fight al Qaeda, both North Waziristani factions know that they will have to end any support to the hostile militants, or at least not oppose the Pakistan army when it moves to flush those militants out. They will only do so if they gain international recognition as legitimate political actors, which requires considerable progress in U.S.-Pakistani talks.

However, the United States will not negotiate with either player until it knows that Pakistan will actually engage in sanctuary denial efforts -- and more critically, that Bahadur and the Haqqanis will actually sever their ties with irreconcilable jihadists. There is a strong view within Washington that the North Waziristanis are too close to al Qaeda to truly cut their jihadist ties and that Pakistan cannot be trusted either. The Pakistanis are caught between Washington's need for Islamabad to bring the insurgents to the table and the Taliban's need to stage attacks to shape U.S. behavior in negotiations.

Before Pakistan can effectively mediate between the United States and the North Waziristanis, Islamabad and Washington have to sort out their issues and then agree that the Haqqanis and Bahadur constitute reconcilable insurgents. It is not clear whether this can be accomplished, but any agreement on North Waziristan will have to involve deals with the tribal and militant forces that operate there -- similar to the deal that the Obama administration is seeking with the Afghan Taliban.



46281
Politics & Religion / This amendment sounds really good
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:20:21 AM »


Gun Owners of America
________________________________________
Two Representatives Looking
to Neuter the NDAA
-- Amendment would protect you from indefinite detention
 
Representatives Justin Amash (R-MI) and Adam Smith (D-WA) are looking to fix one of the most troubling pieces of legislation that have passed during Barack Obama’s presidency.
 
As you know, at the end of last year, Congress passed and Barack Obama signed a defense authorization bill which contained two very dangerous provisions.
 
The first of these troubling provisions in the National Defense Authorization Act [NDAA] is section 1021.  It would allow American citizens to be arrested on American soil, detained indefinitely, tried in a military court, and deported to a Third World country for torture.
 
And all of this could be done without a trial!
 
An American could be detained if he “substantially supported” an individual who engaged in a belligerent act against the U.S. or its allies, whether knowingly or unknowingly.  Thus, if you were to sell a gun to a Timothy McVeigh, unaware of his intentions, you could have all of your constitutional rights summarily taken away by Barack Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder under the terms of this law.
 
The Amash provision would amend section 1021 by barring the U.S. military from putting any citizen into indefinite detention without a charge or trial.
 
Another provision in the NDAA [section 1022] actually requires the military to put certain civilian suspects into military detention.  While the administration has waived this provision’s applicability to certain groups of people, the underlying law could still be enforced one day by the Obama administration (or a future administration).
 
The Amash amendment would repeal section 1022 entirely.
 
ACTION:  Please click here to ask your representative to support the NDAA-neutering amendment to H.R. 4310.

http://capwiz.com/gunowners/issues/alert/?alertid=61337441

46282
Politics & Religion / The Night Watchman
« on: May 16, 2012, 06:15:22 AM »
                                                             THE NIGHT WATCHMAN

Once upon a time the government had a vast scrap yard in the middle of a
desert.

Congress said, "Someone may steal from it at night." So they created a
night watchman position and hired a person for the job. Then Congress
said, "How does the watchman do his job without instruction? " So they
created a planning department and hired two people, one person to write
the instructions, and one person to do time studies. Then Congress said,
"How will we know the night watchman is doing the tasks correctly?" So
they created a Quality Control department and hired two people. One was
to do the studies and one was to write the reports. Then Congress said,
"How are these people going to get paid?" So they created two positions:
A time keeper and a payroll officer then hired two people. Then Congress
said, "Who will be accountable for all of these people?" So they created
an administrative section and hired three people, an Administrative
Officer, Assistant Administrative Officer, and a Legal Secretary.

Then Congress said, "We have had this command in operation for one year
and we are $918,000 over budget, we must cut back." So they laid-off the
night watchman.

NOW slowly, let it sink in.

Quietly, we go like sheep to slaughter... Does anybody remember the
reason given for the establishment of the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY during
the Carter administration?

Anybody?

Anything?

No?

Didn't think so!

Bottom line is, we've spent several hundred billion dollars in support
of an agency....the reason for which not one person who reads this can
remember!

Ready?

It was very simple... and at the time, everybody thought it very
appropriate.

The Department of Energy was instituted on 8/04/1977... ......... ......

To LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.

Hey, pretty efficient, huh?

AND NOW IT'S 2012 -- 35 YEARS LATER -- AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS
"NECESSARY" DEPARTMENT IS AT $24.2 BILLION A YEAR. IT HAS 16,000 FEDERAL
EMPLOYEES AND APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES; AND LOOK AT THE
JOB IT HAS DONE!

(THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY, "WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?")

34 years ago 30% of our oil consumption was foreign imports.

Today 70% of our oil consumption is foreign imports.

Ah, yes -- good old Federal bureaucracy.

NOW, WE HAVE TURNED OVER THE BANKING SYSTEM, HEALTH CARE,

AND THE AUTO INDUSTRY TO THE SAME GOVERNMENT?

Hello!

Anybody Home?

Signed,

The Night Watchman

46283
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/16/world/cartwright-key-retired-general-backs-large-us-nuclear-reduction.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120516
Former Commander of U.S. Nuclear Forces Calls for Large Cut in WarheadsBy THOM SHANKER
Published: May 15, 2012
 
WASHINGTON — Gen. James E. Cartwright, the retired vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a former commander of the United States’ nuclear forces, is adding his voice to those who are calling for a drastic reduction in the number of nuclear warheads below the levels set by agreements with Russia.

General Cartwright said that the United States’ nuclear deterrence could be guaranteed with a total arsenal of 900 warheads, and with only half of them deployed at any one time. Even those in the field would be taken off hair triggers, requiring 24 to 72 hours for launching, to reduce the chance of accidental war.

That arsenal would be a significant cut from the current agreement to limit Russia and the United States to 1,550 deployed warheads each, down from 2,200, within six years. Under the New Start agreement, thousands more warheads can be kept in storage as a backup force, and the restrictions do not apply to hundreds of short-range nuclear weapons in the American and Russian arsenals.

“The world has changed, but the current arsenal carries the baggage of the cold war,” General Cartwright said in an interview. “There is the baggage of significant numbers in reserve. There is the baggage of a nuclear stockpile beyond our needs. What is it we’re really trying to deter? Our current arsenal does not address the threats of the 21st century.”

The proposals are contained in a report to be issued Wednesday by Global Zero, a nuclear policy organization, signed by General Cartwright and several senior national security figures, including Richard Burt, a former chief nuclear arms negotiator; Chuck Hagel, a former Republican senator from Nebraska; Thomas R. Pickering, a former ambassador to Russia; and Gen. John J. Sheehan, who held senior NATO positions before retiring from active duty.

General Cartwright’s leading role in the study is expected to give heft to the proposals; he was the top officer at the United States Strategic Command, overseeing the entire nuclear arsenal. The report’s proposals also may help shape the election-year debate on national security.

President Obama has pronounced a goal of eliminating nuclear weapons, but the specific steps and timetable remain aspirational.

Pentagon officials have drawn up options for the president, ranging from an arsenal that remains at New Start levels to one with 300 to 400 warheads. But officials emphasized that this internal review was still under way and that no decisions had been made.

In March, Republicans criticized Mr. Obama after he was overheard telling his Russian counterpart during a nuclear terrorism conference in South Korea that he would have more flexibility to deal with Moscow’s concerns on arms control after the November election.

Among the striking Global Zero proposals is one to eliminate outright the fixed, land-based intercontinental nuclear missiles that form one leg of the three-part nuclear arsenal, and instead rely solely on submarines, which are nearly impossible to detect, and long-range bombers, which can be summoned back from an attack should a crisis ease. The proposal calls for 360 warheads deployed aboard submarines and 90 gravity bombs aboard strike aircraft, and calls on Russia also to limit its arsenal to 900 warheads.

Given the low likelihood of a huge nuclear exchange with Russia or China, General Cartwright said, these steep reductions in the American arsenal are necessary if the United States wants credibility to urge restraints on the weapons programs of smaller nuclear powers like India and Pakistan — and on potentially emerging nuclear states like Iran and North Korea.

General Cartwright said that countries like India and Pakistan viewed their weapons more as a shield to protect their sovereignty than as a sword to be used in conflict. They and some potentially emerging nuclear powers ignore Washington’s calls for curbing their nuclear aspirations, saying that the United States is guilty of hypocrisy because it maintains a huge arsenal.

“A significant number of countries are not part of the dialogue” on reducing nuclear weapons, he said. And as more nuclear weapons are held by more nations — whose arsenals are not guarded by the layers of high-tech security systems in place over American weapons — the greater the opportunity for them to fall into the hands of terrorists, General Cartwright noted.

The Global Zero study also says that the large reductions make sense in a time of constrained Pentagon spending. The delivery systems in the American nuclear arsenal are nearing the end of their service life at nearly the same time, presenting a bill of hundreds of billions of dollars just as the Defense Department must cut spending.

Bruce Blair, who directed the study and is a co-founder of Global Zero, said that decisions should be made soon on nuclear arms reductions, so that money is not wasted on weapons programs that should be eliminated.

Mr. Blair said that land-based intercontinental missiles “have no role to play any longer.” In fixed silos, they are vulnerable to targeting. And the study includes maps to show that America’s land-based missile force would have to fly over Russia to reach potential nuclear adversaries like North Korea or Iran. That route “risks confusing Russia with ambiguous attack indications and triggering nuclear retaliation,” he said.

The report emphasizes the importance of missile defense in bolstering American deterrence in an era of smaller offensive nuclear arsenals.


46285
"Sometimes it is said that man can not be trusted with government of himself. Can he, then, be trusted with the government of others? Or have we found angels in the forms of kings to govern him? Let history answer this question." --Thomas Jefferson, First Inaugural Address, 1801

46286
Politics & Religion / CA is fuct
« on: May 15, 2012, 10:20:41 PM »
For residents of this U.S. state, things just got a whole lot worse
Monday, May 14, 2012
   
From The Economic Collapse:

Why does the state of California seem to be so incredibly hopeless? These days, California can't seem to do anything right, and if you live in California, things just got a whole lot worse.

Governor Brown has announced that the state budget deficit for this year is going to be much larger than projected, that more government services are going to be cut, and that voters are going to vote on another round of tax increases in November.

Meanwhile, unemployment is sitting at 11 percent and extended federal unemployment benefits for workers in the state are ending. Because California is one of the worst places in the nation to conduct business, there has been a steady flow of companies leaving the state. Those companies have taken a whole lot of good jobs with them.

Due to the lack of jobs and a steady stream of impoverished immigrants coming in from Mexico and other countries, poverty in the state has exploded and crime is rapidly increasing. California may be the land of "endless sunshine," but for the California economy, there are only dark clouds on the horizon. The state is coming apart at the seams, and there is not much hope that things are going to turn around any time soon.

These days, California is very similar to Greece in many ways...

Read full article...

More on California:

Sixteen reasons to get out of this popular state immediately

Outrageous report shows California is desperate for cash any way it can get it

Wall Street Journal op-ed: California is making the same insane mistakes as Greece 


46288
Politics & Religion / Re: UN Small Arms Trade Treaty
« on: May 15, 2012, 06:17:21 PM »
My second post of the evening.

I have realized that we have forgotten about this thread dedicated to UN SATT and have had a number of quite relevant posts on the Gun Rights thread, so in the interest of thread coherency I have pasted all of them into this one post here.   If you have any questions about who is saying what please refer to the posts of the Gun Rights thread in the days preceding this posts.

Please remember to use this thread for this subject from here forward.

Marc
=========================



http://www.dickmorris.com/obamas-secret-gun-control-plan-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/

BD, is he right in what he says about the legal force of a treaty viz our Constitutional rights?

====================

There is a great deal in that 3 minute video. 

He says that President Obama could backdoor the small arms ban without congressional approval.  He then, correctly, notes that a treaty must be passed by the Senate.  He then goes on to say that this could happen "easily with a Democratic lame duck Senate."  This I find hard to believe for a few reasons.  First, I think he "misunderestimates" the role of the filibuster.  Second, it takes a supermajority of two thirds for the treaty to be ratified.  Third, I suspect that there are Democrats who are not leaving, but are up for reelection in 2014 who might think twice about voting for the treaty.  But all of that is not what you are asking about.

The answer is sort of.  According to Art. VI, "This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding."  So, Dick Morris seems to want to focus on the portion I bolded.  However, the portion that follows is really key to the argument, and somehting I think Morris is likely overlooking.  "[A]ny Thing in the Constitution to the Contrary notwirhstanding" is extremely important.  It would seem, especially with the incorporation of the Second Amendment (fingers crossed for its continued recogniton), that there is protection against what Morris claims Obama is attempting.  (See http://iapcar.org/?p=567 for a nice discussion.)


I think he wants to sell books. 

Quote from: Crafty_Dog on May 09, 2012, 11:54:48 AM

http://www.dickmorris.com/obamas-secret-gun-control-plan-dick-morris-tv-lunch-alert/

BD, is he right in what he says about the legal force of a treaty viz our Constitutional rights?


What is the meaning of "any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding."?

Does it mean that even if contradicted by some part of the Constitution, it still is legally valid?  It seems to say that to me , , ,  sorry to be slow-witted here , , ,

=======================

According to the best interpretation of the Constitution, and the specific clause you are asking about, treaties do NOT supercede the Constitution.

====================

So, there is dispute about this point?

I hope I do not impose with my request, but would you flesh this out further please?

=========================

I know nothing of this website or its organization, but it does a nice job summarizing the discussion/dispute.  I don't really understand the dispute (as in, it seems facially obvious to me what the Framers were doing).  But, here it is:

"In spite of the clear evidence that the treaty power was intended to be limited, promoters of big government in our century have attacked our constitutional protections through a deliberate misinterpretation of Article VI. They read it as "Treaties...shall be the supreme Law of the Land...any Thing in the Constitution...to the Contrary notwithstanding." They claim that the mention of a Constitution refers to the US Constitution, when the grammar in this clause and usage elsewhere in the document clearly shows that it is referring to the "Constitution or Laws of any State." In other words, while treaties are to take precedence over state laws and constitutions, the would-be tyrants assume that they take precedence over our federal Constitution."

http://www.neusysinc.com/columnarchive/colm0093.html

=================

Bingo-- the foundation of my confusion, and the nature of the danger, is now made clear.   Thank you.

One would think that there is SCOTUS case law on point , , ,

=======================

One would think:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89100044

http://www.sweetliberty.org/issues/staterights/treaties.htm

As I said, I really just get the feeling that Dick Morris is trying to sell his book.


=============================

Thank you BD.

I note the mention of Harold Koh, now at Hillary's elbow in some Int'l Law post at State, in NPR piece you posted, upset at the logic of the SCOTUS decision.  He is well positioned (and will be well supported by SecState Clinton in these efforts) to negotiate something really cute in the language that will seek to provide a basis for the criteria mentioned in , , , I see the piece does not name the case-- any chance you could find us the case and its citation BD?

This concerns me:

"The court said the president, acting on his own, cannot make a treaty binding on the states.

"The Supreme Court ruled that they are binding only if the treaty explicitly says so or if there is legislation to make that clear. For all of American history, many treaties have been deemed to be what is called "self-executing," meaning that their provisions are automatically binding. But not all treaties fall into this category. The Supreme Court's ruling set a bright line for which treaties are self-executing — namely, those that explicitly say so or have accompanying legislation that says so."

So, the President and the Senate can override the Constitution if the President and a majority of the Senate and House pass supporting legislation?  Doesn't this bypass the defined procedures for modifying the C.?

=================

Name, citation, briefs and oral argument.  http://oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2007/2007_06_984

=======================

"If I remember correctly, the holding of Medellin really focuses on whether or not there is a presumption of self-execution for treaties.  The court found that there is a presumption that treaties are not self-executing unless the treaty itself or the Senate makes clear that the treaty is self-executing. 

"The more on-point case for treaties that conflict with state laws is Missouri v. Holland, where the court found that treaties trump all state laws and constitutions through the supremacy clause.  However, a treaty cannot conflict with the U.S. Constitution.  There is still some question about whether the federal government can accomplish through treaty what it does not have the power to do in Art. I-II of the Constitution.   

"As it currently stands, the Second Amendment provides a minimum floor for a right to arms, states cannot provide lesser rights to their citizens.  There is no upper limit, and many states choose to provide their citizens with a broader right to arms than guaranteed by the Second Amendment.  A treaty could theoretically also make the Second Amendment the upper limit by restricting the right to only what is protected in the Constitution."

This sounds sound to me BD.  What do you think?

Using BD's source, here is a citation for Missouri v. Holland:   http://oyez.org/cases/1901-1939/1919/1919_609

===================
Agreed.

46289
Politics & Religion / ISACS a sham
« on: May 15, 2012, 06:04:44 PM »
http://www.americanhunter.org/blogs/is-isacs-a-sham/

Is ISACS a Sham?
5/4/2012

By Jeff Johnston

The Myth: The International Small Arms Control Standards (ISACS) is not about banning guns, but about making them safer, say Hillary Clinton, NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, George Soros and other known gun banners.

The Facts: ISACS is composed of a bunch of governments such as Iraq and Colombia, among others, organizations such as the Canadian Coalition for Gun Control, the World Health Organization and others. See here for a full list.

But NRA’s Chris Cox, Wayne LaPierre, former United Nations Ambassador John Bolton and scores of evidence say otherwise. They say ISACS was created to use the U.N. as a means to sidestep the U.S. Constitution to lessen or ban small arm ownership in the U.S., under the guise of “firearm safety.”

What Gun Owning Americans Want to Know: Who’s telling the truth?

Despite the NRA’s 100-plus year track-record of being the gold standard in small arms safety training (it trains about a million people each year in firearm use and safety, including law enforcement personnel) it wasn't welcomed to the ISACS meeting. So just taking NRA’s word on it isn’t enough.

But the neutral Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturers Institute (SAAMI) was invited to take part, because it was told that ISACS’ goal was to review and adopt international standards of safety. After all, SAAMI sets the safety standards for firearm and ammo manufacturing in this country, which in turn is very influential all over the world.

Any time you fire a gun, it is due to SAAMI’s tireless, technical research that assures you the gun or ammo is not loaded to hyper-pressures, and the gun is made to tested technical specifications so it will not literally blow up in your face. Any time a new gun or ammo manufacturer wishes to send a new product to market, it must pass SAAMI’s stringent protocols. If it is made elsewhere and is to be imported here, it must first pass SAAMI’s rigorous specs, so obviously not all gun and ammo manufacturers love SAAMI. They work with SAAMI because they must. Since 1926 SAMMI has been keeping them honest, and consumers safe.

So what does SAAMI say about ISACS? A press release issued by SAAMI is telling, and since SAAMI is neutral and has a pristine record of promoting gun safety and nothing else, I’ll point to it as plausible evidence.

The Proof: The following release was taken verbatim from SAAMI’s website days after it withdrew on March 21, 2012:

Quote:
SAAMI Withdraws Its Name from Tainted U.N. Program

The Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturers' Institute (SAAMI), a registered United Nations non-governmental organization (NGO) with roster status, has taken the regrettable but necessary step of withdrawing any reference of SAAMI association from the U.N. agency project to create "International Small Arms Control Standards (ISACS)."

The goal of ISACS, as stated on the U.N. website is "To develop internationally accepted and validated standards that provide clear and comprehensive guidance to practitioners and policy-makers on small arms and light weapons control." SAAMI, being an accredited standards-setting organization, welcomed the opportunity to be part of a standards-setting process which requires rigorous adherence to facts.

"We saw the ISACS as a way to cut through the politics and rhetoric of this issue and get down to core actions that will reduce violence," says Rick Patterson, Managing Director of SAAMI. "Regrettably, the process has been tainted, expert input has been ignored, and the resulting standards represent nothing more than the opinions of the authors—most of whom are affiliated with NGO's supporting gun control." Because the U.N. has ignored contrary facts and opinions, and quelled debate, the U.N. has done itself—and everyone associated with ISACS—a disservice. They have negatively affected the credibility of all parties involved. For these reasons, SAAMI simply cannot allow its reputation for professionalism, integrity and factual expertise to be associated with the ISACS program. 
 

46290
Politics & Religion / Re: 2012 Presidential
« on: May 15, 2012, 05:49:08 PM »
Remember, its not a fight, its a conversation  :-D

46291
Politics & Religion / DC Circuit brushes back Baraq's NLRB
« on: May 15, 2012, 05:46:46 PM »
This is a fund raiser letter.  I've no knowledge of the group and so caveat donor.  I post the letter for the info it offers:
==================

Following on the heels of two National Right to Work Foundation-won victories against Obama Administration lawyers, a federal court has overturned yet another Obama Labor Board power grab.

Yesterday, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia struck down the National Labor Relations Board's (NLRB) ambush elections rule change that generated record opposition last summer from concerned citizens like you.

You see, the former union lawyers on the NLRB were so desperate to enact the rule change in December before radical Member Craig Becker's term expired, they rammed it through without securing the quorum necessary to vote on the rule.

Yesterday's decision prevents implementation of a rule that deprives employees of hearing both sides of the story about unionization.

Ambush elections are designed to make union organizing campaigns as one-sided as possible and to stifle the rights of employees who may oppose bringing a union into their workplace.

Just weeks earlier in a case brought by Foundation attorneys, a federal appeals court enjoined the NLRB from enforcing another new policy that would force most private sector employers nationwide to post biased notices that effectively serve as a roadmap to forced unionization.

And recently the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit rejected arguments by union and Obama Administration lawyers to roll back one worker's groundbreaking victory against a corrupt card check scheme.

While these victories for workers against the ideologically-charged Obama Labor Board are crucial, I'm afraid things could continue to get worse.

As you may recall, President Obama double-downed on his bureaucratic assault on workers and job providers by installing "recess" appointees to the NLRB -- while Congress was still in session.

This cynical move represents an unprecedented defiance of Congress and the Constitution.

Obama's spin doctors claim that the Senate had long stalled on the President's nominations. But that's simply not true.

The White House never even submitted the proper paperwork to the Senate Labor Committee to let the Committee members conduct background checks and interview two of the nominees -- including a lawyer for the International Union of Operating Engineers (IUOE).

With such a flagrant abuse of power by the Obama Administration, I'm grateful for the continued generosity of Right to Work supporters like you who enable us to fight back in the courts and in the media.

These recent victories in court are encouraging and remind us why our legal program is so critical.  Thanks for helping us stand up for worker freedom.

Sincerely,
 
Mark Mix

P.S. The Foundation relies completely on voluntary contributions from its supporters to provide free legal aid.

If you can, please chip in with a tax-deductible contribution of $10 or more today to support the Foundation's programs.

46292
Politics & Religion / Re: 2012 Presidential
« on: May 15, 2012, 02:15:33 PM »
Should you wish to continue, I invite the two of you to carry on on some other thread e.g. Govt. Programs

46293
Science, Culture, & Humanities / Electrical Brain Stimulation
« on: May 15, 2012, 10:31:05 AM »




http://theweek.com/article/index/226196/how-electrical-brain-stimulation-can-change-the-way-we-think
ESSAY
How electrical brain stimulation can change the way we think
After my brain was jolted, says Sally Adee, I had a near-spiritual experience
PUBLISHED MARCH 30, 2012, AT 10:01 AM

Researchers have found that "transcranial direct current stimulation" can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship.   Photo: Adrianna Williams/Corbis
HAVE YOU EVER wanted to take a vacation from your own head? You could do it easily enough with liberal applications of alcohol or hallucinogens, but that's not the kind of vacation I'm talking about. What if you could take a very specific vacation only from the stuff that makes it painful to be you: the sneering inner monologue that insists you're not capable enough or smart enough or pretty enough, or whatever hideous narrative rides you. Now that would be a vacation. You'd still be you, but you'd be able to navigate the world without the emotional baggage that now drags on your every decision. Can you imagine what that would feel like?

Late last year, I got the chance to find out, in the course of investigating a story for New Scientist about how researchers are using neurofeedback and electrical brain stimulation to accelerate learning. What I found was that electricity might be the most powerful drug I've ever used in my life.

It used to be just plain old chemistry that had neuroscientists gnawing their fingernails about the ethics of brain enhancement. As Adderall, Ritalin, and other cognitive enhancing drugs gain widespread acceptance as tools to improve your everyday focus, even the stigma of obtaining them through less-than-legal channels appears to be disappearing. People will overlook a lot of moral gray areas in the quest to juice their brain power.

But until recently, you were out of luck if you wanted to do that without taking drugs that might be addictive, habit-forming, or associated with unfortunate behavioral side effects. Over the past few years, however, it's become increasingly clear that applying an electrical current to your head confers similar benefits.

U.S. military researchers have had great success using "transcranial direct current stimulation" (tDCS) — in which they hook you up to what's essentially a 9-volt battery and let the current flow through your brain. After a few years of lab testing, they've found that tDCS can more than double the rate at which people learn a wide range of tasks, such as object recognition, math skills, and marksmanship.

We don't yet have a commercially available "thinking cap," but we will soon. So the research community has begun to ask: What are the ethics of battery-operated cognitive enhancement? Recently, a group of Oxford neuroscientists released a cautionary statement about the ethics of brain boosting; then the U.K.'s Royal Society released a report that questioned the use of tDCS for military applications. Is brain boosting a fair addition to the cognitive enhancement arms race? Will it create a Morlock/Eloi–like social divide, where the rich can afford to be smarter and everyone else will be left behind? Will Tiger Moms force their lazy kids to strap on a zappity helmet during piano practice?

After trying it myself, I have different questions. To make you understand, I am going to tell you how it felt. The experience wasn't simply about the easy pleasure of undeserved expertise. For me, it was a near-spiritual experience. When a nice neuroscientist named Michael Weisend put the electrodes on me, what defined the experience was not feeling smarter or learning faster: The thing that made the earth drop out from under my feet was that for the first time in my life, everything in my head finally shut up.

The experiment I underwent was accelerated marksmanship training, using a training simulation that the military uses. I spent a few hours learning how to shoot a modified M4 close-range assault rifle, first without tDCS and then with. Without it I was terrible, and when you're terrible at something, all you can do is obsess about how terrible you are. And how much you want to stop doing the thing you are terrible at.

Then this happened:

THE 20 MINUTES I spent hitting targets while electricity coursed through my brain were far from transcendent. I only remember feeling like I'd just had an excellent cup of coffee, but without the caffeine jitters. I felt clear-headed and like myself, just sharper. Calmer. Without fear and without doubt. From there on, I just spent the time waiting for a problem to appear so that I could solve it.

It was only when they turned off the current that I grasped what had just happened. Relieved of the minefield of self-doubt that constitutes my basic personality, I was a hell of a shot. And I can't tell you how stunning it was to suddenly understand just how much of a drag that inner cacophony is on my ability to navigate life and basic tasks.

It's possibly the world's biggest cliché that we're our own worst enemies. In yoga, they tell you that you need to learn to get out of your own way. Practices like yoga are meant to help you exhume the person you are without all the geologic layers of narrative and cross talk that are constantly chattering in your brain. I think eventually they just become background noise. We stop hearing them consciously, but believe me, we listen to them just the same.

My brain without self-doubt was a revelation. There was suddenly this incredible silence in my head; I've experienced something close to it during two-hour Iyengar yoga classes, or at the end of a 10k, but the fragile peace in my head would be shattered almost the second I set foot outside the calm of the studio. I had certainly never experienced instant Zen in the frustrating middle of something I was terrible at.

WHAT HAD HAPPENED inside my skull? One theory is that the mild electrical shock may depolarize the neuronal membranes in the part of the brain associated with object recognition, making the cells more excitable and responsive to inputs. Like many other neuroscientists working with tDCS, Weisend thinks this accelerates the formation of new neural pathways during the time that someone practices a skill, making it easier to get into the "zone." The method he was using on me boosted the speed with which wannabe snipers could detect a threat by a factor of 2.3.

Another possibility is that the electrodes somehow reduce activity in the prefrontal cortex — the area of the brain used in critical thought, says psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi of Claremont Graduate University in California. And critical thought, some neuroscientists believe, is muted during periods of intense Zen-like concentration. It sounds counterintuitive, but silencing self-critical thoughts might allow more automatic processes to take hold, which would in turn produce that effortless feeling of flow.

With the electrodes on, my constant self-criticism virtually disappeared, I hit every one of the targets, and there were no unpleasant side effects afterwards. The bewitching silence of the tDCS lasted, gradually diminishing over a period of about three days. The inevitable return of self-doubt and inattention was disheartening, to say the least.

I HOPE YOU can sympathize with me when I tell you that the thing I wanted most acutely for the weeks following my experience was to go back and strap on those electrodes. I also started to have a lot of questions. Who was I apart from the angry bitter gnomes that populate my mind and drive me to failure because I'm too scared to try? And where did those voices come from? Some of them are personal history, like the caustically dismissive 7th grade science teacher who advised me to become a waitress. Some of them are societal, like the hateful lady-mag voices that bully me every time I look in a mirror. An invisible narrative informs all my waking decisions in ways I can't even keep track of.

What would a world look like in which we all wore little tDCS headbands that would keep us in a primed, confident state, free of all doubts and fears? I'd wear one at all times and have two in my backpack ready in case something happened to the first one.

I think the ethical questions we should be asking about tDCS are much more subtle than the ones we've been asking about cognitive enhancement. Because how you define "cognitive enhancement" frames the debate about its ethics.

If you told me tDCS would allow someone to study twice as fast for the bar exam, I might be a little leery because now I have visions of rich daddies paying for Junior's thinking cap. Neuroscientists like Roy Hamilton have termed this kind of application "cosmetic neuroscience," which implies a kind of "First World problem" — frivolity.

But now think of a different application — could school-age girls use the zappy cap while studying math to drown out the voices that tell them they can't do math because they're girls? How many studies have found a link between invasive stereotypes and poor test performance?

And then, finally, the main question: What role do doubt and fear play in our lives if their eradication actually causes so many improvements? Do we make more ethical decisions when we listen to our inner voices of self-doubt or when we're freed from them? If we all wore these caps, would the world be a better place?

And if tDCS headwear were to become widespread, would the same 20 minutes with a 2 milliamp current always deliver the same effects, or would you need to up your dose like you do with some other drugs?

Because, to steal a great point from an online commenter, pretty soon, a 9-volt battery may no longer be enough.


©2012 by Sally Adee, reprinted by permission of New Scientist. The full article can be found at NewScientist.com.

46294


"New government data reveals a continuing trend of declining marriage rates. More women have never been married, and cohabitation rates have increased steadily. And more children are born outside of marriage than ever before. The consequences of these trends include lower economic prosperity for families and an array of poorer outcomes for children. Tragically, as marriage declines, even the very physical safety for women and children is compromised. ... The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that never-married women are over four times as likely to be a victim of domestic violence compared to married women. ... Additionally, children living outside of married, biological-parent homes have a far greater probability of experiencing physical and sexual abuse. Most notably, children living with a single parent and the parent's romantic partner are approximately 10 times as likely to be physically abused and 20 times as likely to be sexually abused. Even children living with both biological parents are at heightened risk of physical abuse (over four times as likely) and sexual abuse (nearly five times as likely) if their parents are not married. As marriage rates decline, more women and children are exposed to living situations that jeopardize their safety. As policymakers look to ways to address violence against women, rather than expanding top-down approaches of questionable effectiveness, efforts to promote and strengthen marriage are critical." --Heritage Foundation's Rachel Sheffield

46295
Science, Culture, & Humanities / The Rising Cost of Education
« on: May 15, 2012, 10:07:04 AM »
The rising cost of education
"For decades, American politicians have waxed passionate on the need to put college within every family's reach. ... The College Board, which tracks each type of financial assistance in a comprehensive annual report, shows total federal aid soaring by more than $100 billion in the space of a single decade -- from $64 billion in 2000 to $169 billion in 2010. ... And what have we gotten for this vast investment in college affordability? Colleges that are more unaffordable than ever. Year in, year out, Washington bestows tuition aid on students and their families. Year in, year out, the cost of tuition surges, galloping well ahead of inflation. And year in, year out, politicians vie to outdo each other in promising still more public subsidies that will keep higher education within reach of all. ... Federal financial aid is a major source of revenue for colleges and universities, and aid packages are generally based on the gap between what a family can afford to pay to send a student to a given college, and the tuition and fees charged by that college. That gives schools every incentive to keep their tuition unaffordable. Why would they reduce their sticker price to a level more families could afford, when doing so would mean kissing millions of government dollars goodbye? Directly or indirectly, government loans and grants have led to massive tuition inflation. ... The more government has done to make higher education affordable, the more unaffordable it has become. Doing more of the same won't yield a different outcome." --columnist Jeff Jacoby
===============

"If our students are burdened with oppressive loans, why do so many university rec centers look like five-star spas? Student cell phones and cars are indistinguishable from those of the faculty. The underclass suffers more from obesity than malnutrition; our national epidemic is not unaffordable protein, but rather a surfeit of even cheaper sweets. Flash mobbers target electronics stores for more junk, not bulk food warehouses in order to eat. America's children do not suffer from lack of access to the Internet, but from wasting hours on video games and less-than-instructional websites. We have too many, not too few, television channels. The problem is not that government workers are underpaid or scarce, but that so many of them seem to think mind readers, clowns and prostitutes come with the job. An average American with an average cell phone has more information at his fingertips than did a Goldman Sachs grandee 20 years ago. ... In 1980, a knee or hip replacement was experimental surgery for the 1 percent; now it is a Medicare entitlement. American poverty is not measured by absolute global standards of available food, shelter and medical care, or by comparisons to prior generations, but by one American now having less stuff than another." --historian Victor Davis Hanson

46297
Clinton, Obama, UN To Tell Us How To Raise Our Children
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on May 14, 2012

Printer-Friendly Version
In Screwed!, we expose the Rights of the Child Treaty which is now being negotiated by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and will likely be submitted to the Senate this year (perhaps in the lame duck session).
 
Twenty years ago, during the Clinton Administration, the Senate refused to ratify the treaty.  But now it is being pushed by Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA).
 
The Treaty, literally, tells us how to raise our children.  And it would be legally enforceable in American courts under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.  Only a constitutional amendment could supersede the "rights" it confers on children:
 
•  It bans spanking or any form of corporal punishment of children.
 
•  Article 12 of the Treaty says "when adults are making decisions which affect children, children have the right to say what they think should happen and have their opinion taken into account." Could this proviso establish a due process right of children to challenge their parents' divorce or their decision to move?
 
•  Worried that your children are hanging out with a bad bunch?  Article 15 guarantees children "freedom of association."  It says "Children have the right to meet together and to join groups and organizations, as long as it does not stop other people from enjoying their rights."
 
•  The Treaty would stop states from trying children as adults and incarcerating them with adult inmates.  It would require that even murderers in their teens be sent to children's facilities rather than prison. Article 37 says "children should not be put in prison with adults."
 
The Treaty requires all signatory nations to provide children with adequate levels of food, clothing, housing, education and medical care.  In Britain, Prime Minister Cameroon is facing a lawsuit for violating the Rights of the Child Treaty by proposing a cut in welfare benefits.
 
It also obliges rich nations to "help poorer countries achieve the best health care possible, safe drinking water, nutritious food, and a clean and safe environment for children."  Enforceable in US courts, this provision might create a basis for judicial decisions ordering increases in foreign aid, just as courts now order steps to address overcrowding of prisons.
 
The Treaty would make a new level of busybody intrusion into our lives. 

46298
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/15/science/a-mathematical-challenge-to-obesity.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120515

By CLAUDIA DREIFUS
Published: May 14, 2012

 
Carson C. Chow deploys mathematics to solve the everyday problems of real life. As an investigator at the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, he tries to figure out why 1 in 3 Americans are overweight.

We spoke at the recent annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, where Dr. Chow, 49, gave a presentation on “Illuminating the Obesity Epidemic With Mathematics,” and then later by telephone; a condensed and edited version of the interviews follows.

You are an M.I.T.-trained mathematician and physicist. How did you come to work on obesity?

In 2004, while on the faculty of the math department at the University of Pittsburgh, I married. My wife is a Johns Hopkins ophthalmologist, and she would not move. So I began looking for work in the Beltway area. Through the grapevine, I heard that the N.I.D.D.K., a branch of the National Institutes of Health, was building up its mathematics laboratory to study obesity. At the time, I knew almost nothing of obesity.

I didn’t even know what a calorie was. I quickly read every scientific paper I could get my hands on.

I could see the facts on the epidemic were quite astounding. Between 1975 and 2005, the average weight of Americans had increased by about 20 pounds. Since the 1970s, the national obesity rate had jumped from around 20 percent to over 30 percent.

The interesting question posed to me when I was hired was, “Why is this happening?”

Why would mathematics have the answer?

Because to do this experimentally would take years. You could find out much more quickly if you did the math.

Now, prior to my coming on staff, the institute had hired a mathematical physiologist, Kevin Hall. Kevin developed a model that could predict how your body composition changed in response to what you ate. He created a math model of a human being and then plugged in all the variables — height, weight, food intake, exercise. The model could predict what a person will weigh, given their body size and what they take in.

However, the model was complicated: hundreds of equations. Kevin and I began working together to boil it down to one simple equation. That’s what applied mathematicians do. We make things simple. Once we had it, the slimmed-down equation proved to be a useful platform for answering a host of questions.

What new information did your equation render?

That the conventional wisdom of 3,500 calories less is what it takes to lose a pound of weight is wrong. The body changes as you lose. Interestingly, we also found that the fatter you get, the easier it is to gain weight. An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one.

Also, there’s a time constant that’s an important factor in weight loss. That’s because if you reduce your caloric intake, after a while, your body reaches equilibrium. It actually takes about three years for a dieter to reach their new “steady state.” Our model predicts that if you eat 100 calories fewer a day, in three years you will, on average, lose 10 pounds — if you don’t cheat.

Another finding: Huge variations in your daily food intake will not cause variations in weight, as long as your average food intake over a year is about the same. This is because a person’s body will respond slowly to the food intake.

Did you ever solve the question posed to you when you were first hired — what caused the obesity epidemic?

We think so. And it’s something very simple, very obvious, something that few want to hear: The epidemic was caused by the overproduction of food in the United States.

Beginning in the 1970s, there was a change in national agricultural policy. Instead of the government paying farmers not to engage in full production, as was the practice, they were encouraged to grow as much food as they could. At the same time, technological changes and the “green revolution” made our farms much more productive. The price of food plummeted, while the number of calories available to the average American grew by about 1,000 a day.

Well, what do people do when there is extra food around? They eat it! This, of course, is a tremendously controversial idea. However, the model shows that increase in food more than explains the increase in weight.

In the 1950s, when I was growing up, people rarely ate out. Today, Americans dine out — with these large restaurant portions and oil-saturated foods — about five times a week.

Right. Society has changed a lot. With such a huge food supply, food marketing got better and restaurants got cheaper. The low cost of food fueled the growth of the fast-food industry. If food were expensive, you couldn’t have fast food.

People think that the epidemic has to be caused by genetics or that physical activity has gone down. Yet levels of physical activity have not really changed in the past 30 years. As for the genetic argument, yes, there are people who are genetically disposed to obesity, but if they live in societies where there isn’t a lot of food, they don’t get obese. For them, and for us, it’s supply that’s the issue.

Interestingly, we saw that Americans are wasting food at a progressively increasing rate. If Americans were to eat all the food that’s available, we’d be even more obese.

Any practical advice from your number crunching?

One of the things the numbers have shown us is that weight change, up or down, takes a very, very long time. All diets work. But the reaction time is really slow: on the order of a year.

People don’t wait long enough to see what they are going to stabilize at. So if you drop weight and return to your old eating habits, the time it takes to crawl back to your old weight is something like three years. To help people understand this better, we’ve posted an interactive version of our model at bwsimulator.niddk.nih.gov. People can plug in their information and learn how much they’ll need to reduce their intake and increase their activity to lose. It will also give them a rough sense of how much time it will take to reach the goal. Applied mathematics in action!

What can Americans do to stem the obesity epidemic?

One thing I have concluded, and this is just a personal view, is that we should stop marketing food to children. I think childhood obesity is a major problem. And when you’re obese, it’s not like we can suddenly cut your food off and you’ll go back to not being obese. You’ve been programmed to eat more. It’s a hardship to eat less. Michelle Obama’s initiative is helpful. And childhood obesity rates seem to be stabilizing in the developed world, at least. The obesity epidemic may have peaked because of the recession. It’s made food more expensive.

You said earlier that nobody wants to hear your message. Why?

I think the food industry doesn’t want to know it. And ordinary people don’t particularly want to hear this, either. It’s so easy for someone to go out and eat 6,000 calories a day. There’s no magic bullet on this. You simply have to cut calories and be vigilant for the rest of your life.


46299
Politics & Religion / Re: Gender, Gay, Lesbian
« on: May 15, 2012, 07:14:57 AM »
"The state of the traditional family is so precarious that one wonders how same-sex marriage can appreciably deprave it."

And why is it that the state of the traditional family is so precarious? 

The massive propagandaziation of progressive values seems to me to be the major variable-- and the dilution of the definition of marriage is but another step along that road-- so for me to use the decline which it has caused as a reason to do even more of the same is not a persuasive argument.



46300
The subject of drone use by the police came up on the Bret Baier Report tonight and Charles Krauthammer let rip on drones.  Absolutely positively not!  He doesn't care that their use would save money! The first person to shoot one down will become a folk hero, even if it takes a bazooka!

Bret Baier "I've never seen you so animated!"

Twas true, CK was quite passionate on the point.

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