Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Mostly anedoctel evidence for now.  Will try and get you some sources.

FL 211k early votes now separate

Reps closed gap by 36k already today.

At this pace, by Tues morn, all will be about equal.  Of course, depends upon who the Indies come out for.

CCP

DOOOOM!

EV in FL now down to 231 Dem lead.

Dropping fast.

Unless Reps have really pushed forward their Election Day voting, it will be a solid Trump win.

Should hold Senate with 51 or 52.

House, gone again.

Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:
48.4% @realDonaldTrump,
47.6% @JoeBiden,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
0.7% Other,
1.0% Und. See Report: https://t.co/qf16dkxc...

Yesterday InsiderAdvantage had Trump up by 2 in PA.

IBD has 65 yo+ breaking strongly towards Trump now.

2016 all over again.

Based upon Biden's no more oil comment, have just moved PA into the Trump column.

Now 306 EV for Trump

Florida 

In-person early voting totals after day 3.

Republicans
    483,443

Democlowns
     392,530

Also want Dems to vote early before the Hunter stuff becomes mainstream.

At 51 Senate seats now for Reps with 2 outstanding.

Have no idea. But he gotta be good to match me.

Have moved Wisconsin into Trump locked in. 

286 EV now
40 up in air

One poll has Biden down to 50% in CA v Trump at 40%.  8% drop since the Hunter news came out. If this is accurate, then gonna get a wave and maybe tsunami election.

First, Soutameyere has some major health issues. So that seat could open up as well if something happens.

Second, my Minnesota friend says that the MLPS Tribune is all in for Biden. And the Somali vote is huge and will go Biden.  Rural goes Trump.  Burbs could go Trump but the Wine Moms will tend to support Biden there.  Expect fraud to be high, giving Biden the win.

Still at 278 locked in for Trump.  Another 44 very possible.  15 others could fall into place as well.
And if a wave truly builds, could be up to 370.  Will not go much higher than 370 though.

Polls are more and more showing a tightening race. Trying to adjust models slowly to affect reality and not trying to "persuade" voters towards Biden.

If Trump gets 20 or more of the black vote, then it becomes a tsunami and the Dems could be wiped out down ticket.  Then the Civil War begins.

Have Trump with 276 locked in today
Biden with 218 locked in.
44 up for grabs

Appears that the pollsters are beginning to tighten up their polls to reflect more realistic numbers.  About time with two weeks to go.

Still have Trump at about 320 EV.  Pretty much 2016 all over again.

Can Klaatu come back sooner than later?

Trump Train is picking up speed!

GAWD!  Las Vegas Review...........Trump within 2 points of Biden.  Factor in the "shy" Trump voter, and it could be even, or maybe Trump with a small lead!

 history and historical trends.

The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19. There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present). '

m-Many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers.
This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy.

There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend. Since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. 2 of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.

In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama. Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote.

We've never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M. The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.

We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.

Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections.

What about polls?

Well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19 point enthusiasm advantage. Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, has won the election.

Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.

All polls show voters expect Trump to win. The expectation question is more accurate than the voter intention question that has Biden leading.

Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.

On Polls

The larger the class divide in the electorate, the larger the polling error

There has been many elections where polls just failed to predict anything. 1948, 1952, 1976, 1980, 1996, 2000, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 all had major polling errors.

In 2012, the current trend of low response rates began. Since 2012, polls have gotten worse.

The 2018 polls were not better than 2016, they were worse. Polls are incapable of predicting anything. especially with cancel culture and pollsters insistence on going in the field during major news events. 2020 has been one long major news event....
so the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year.

Joe Biden also has a history against him.

No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years.
The 14 year rule - No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Biden needed 36 years to become VP.

History is against Biden and in favor of Trump.

The only thing that shows Biden winning are polls. By every historical metric and trend, Donald Trump will win this election.

Taking a very negative review of the polls, I have Biden at 278 v Trump at 260.   (Optimistic view has Trump at 320 v Biden at 218)

Critical states that could swing to the opposite candidate before election day are

Currently Trump

Florida +29

Currently Biden

Michigan + 16
Minnesota + 10
Nevada + 6
New Hampshire +6
Pennsylvania +20
Wisconsin +10

Trump flips just 10 Ev's, he is the President Elect under my worst case scenario.

Biden gets Florida, then he is President Elect unless Trump can perform a miracle and get Penn, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Bottom line, I think Trump keeps Florida and gets one other minimum to win.

N-95 protects down to 3 microns.  Covid is 2 microns.

My brain is 1/2 of 1 micron.

Not sure I can take much more of 2020. Can we just fast forward?

Live in a liberal hood that went 2-1 for Hillary in 2016.  Have only seen 2 Biden/Harris lawn signs so far. One was the lesbian wife/wife couple. Other a guy who claims to be conservative but hates Trump.

The guy in the neighborhood who wishes Trump would be "cancelled" will actually vote for him over Biden.  He has no signs out.

No Trump signs.......too dangerous to put them out.

CCP

Other polls are showing a race tightening. Makes no sense right now. Am changing leaner states back and forth like crazy if the polls are to be believed.

Still looking at the State Polls and Trump appears to be in good shape. But then again, who the hell knows this time. Especially after last night.

Some movement back to Biden in the polls since RBG died.  May be noise.

Waiting to see what the Barrett announcement will bring. And the debate.