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1
Politics & Religion / Coinbase BTC ad.
« on: April 22, 2024, 04:56:43 AM »
BTC ad. Coinbase has always been anti BTC, because they made their money from $hitcoins. But now even they are changing.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1782231740368507218

2
Politics & Religion / Re: Ukraine
« on: April 21, 2024, 08:00:07 PM »
Martin Armstrong has been saying war is coming for months. His Socrates arrays and other models point to May 7 for something big. Thats also the day Putin is sworn in office. This is a big projection...so lets see how it goes.

3
To confiscate Russian assets, the bill must be approved in the Senate too.

4
If this is approved, thats likely the end of the US $ as global reserve currency. Why would any nation hold US $/Treasuries if it can be confiscated. The world already lost trust, when we kicked Russia from transacting on SWIFT. This is good for BTC and gold.


5
Wokeness is destroying America., will leave it at that!.

6
ETF flows have been consolidating.



7
This presents a different angle. Choose your number, as to how how high BTC goes this cycle. Blue, Red or Green line (previous BTC runs after the halving). This time we have the institutions joining in, Hong Kong going live with in kind BTC ETF this month for capturing Eastern money flows, countries starting to buy/mine BTC.


8
BTC is supposedly not going up fast enough, but we were at 8.5K at the last halving, this time we were nearly at 64 K. No one who has held BTC for 4 years has been at a loss.



9
Politics & Religion / Alexander Dugin on India
« on: April 20, 2024, 04:27:31 AM »
I was impressed with the understanding of India by Alexander Dugin, a Russian thinker close to Putin. His understanding of things is very close to that of the Indian mind. Have not seen any other Western commentator, and definitely no American commentator with this level of accuracy. Dugin by the way says Russia should side with China!, which may be the correct response for Russia.

https://twitter.com/Agdchan/status/1781435242865123423



10
Politics & Religion / No BRICs currency
« on: April 19, 2024, 04:51:29 AM »

12
The pullback at this time, close to the halving is a well known phenomenon (15-30 %). Happened the last 3 times. It takes a few months for the reduction in supply to have an effect.
https://youtu.be/i1RGsduLxJ4

14
Are others seeing the images I just posted ?. Looks like a browser problem, because the images look fine to me.

15
I posted 2 images, nothing critical.

17
The BJP released their 2024 Election Manifesto. No direct mention of POK (but that would not be a good idea, as it would give the timing away). The below national defense related items were listed.

1.Continuing Zero Tolerance towards Terrorism: This is directed at Pak. They remind the readers of 2 previous surgical strikes against Pak.
2. Theaterization of Military Commands: For better efficiency. This will help in the next big war, and is China oriented. They have to be prepared for a two front war with Pak-China, along the NW borders, Eastern borders and in the sea.
3. Robust Infrastructure along the borders. They specifically  refer to India-Pak, India-China and India-Myanmar borders.
4. Reinforcing fight against drugs: This is Pak oriented, who sends a lot across their border.
5. Implementing the new Indian Penal Code: India used the old British rules, these have been updated to present times to deal with Terrorism and anti-national elements.
6.Implementation of the CAA: This is the new Citizenship act, where minorities (non muslims) of previous Indian territories (Pak, Afgh, Bangladesh) who sought shelter in India are given citizenship in India.
7. Enhance capabilities of armed forces and central armed forces (police) to deal with any threats.
8.National Forsensics Mission: To speed up crime related decisions.
9. To protect India's (Bharat) security interests in the Indian Ocean. This is China focussed.
10. Safeguarding India's Digital Sovereignty: This relates to internet based threats. India has low tolerance for misuse of FaceBook etc. Tik-Tok and tons of Chinese apps are banned.
11. Developing Robust Cybersecurity Policies.

Overall, all this is needed before we can fight China, but should the opportunity arise POK will be taken. Modi and the defense minister have said that many times. When the people of POK start demanding to merge with India, we will know its time.


19
aka, US shot itself in the foot. Who's winning now ?. The rise of gold portends lack of confidence in govt.



and then see how BTC does wrt to Gold


20
Politics & Religion / The Yen, US Bond Rates, and BTC
« on: April 11, 2024, 04:31:26 AM »
Here's a good explanation of why the Yen is important for US Bond rates and BTC.

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1778359505601908930

21
Hong Kong BTC ETF expected to trade by end of this month. This will bring a lot of Chinese money.

https://cryptonews.com/news/hong-kong-poised-to-unveil-first-spot-bitcoin-etfs-on-april-15.htm

22
This is just an attempt to needle India and keep it focussed on the land border, away from the Indo-Pacific which is China's weak point.

23
Each time BTC has closed for 2 months over the upper Bollinger band, it has doubled over the next few months. Interesting times ahead


24
With the election season heating up in India, everyone is waiting for the BJP (Modi's party) to issue their manifesto. The important thing is that they have completed about 90 % of the major promises made in the previous 2 election manifestos. Everyone is waiting to hear comments about POK. A second hot topic is to register all citizens (NRC bill). This would be key to preventing illegal immigration from Pak, Bangladesh, Myanmar border etc. Infact the NRC might be a pre-requisite to taking back POK, because of all the jihadis who will be trying to come in.

If anyone is interested, the 2019 manifesto is https://www.bjp.org/manifesto2019 page 11-12 has the national security aspects (all done).  They talk about the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Bill) which has irked the US for no reason. This is where they give citizenship to non-muslim refugees (Indians) from India before it was partitioned (Afghanistan Pak, Bangladesh), after 75 years of independence!. Removal of article 370/35 A from Kashmir, which was thought to be "permanent" and a source of corruption and Paki interference. Since the removal of article 370, there is now peace in Kashmir, violence has died down and development is proceeding at a rapid pace.

In election rallies, Modi speaks of his "guarantee" that he will do what he says.

25
BTC halving schedule and mining rewards. Absolute scarcity is coming in a few years. It would not be wise to sell your entire stack, knowing whats coming over the next decade.



26
Yesterday, Indian defense minister, Rajnath Singh again reiterated, that POK is ours. When asked about the timing of taking POK back, he said the when the people of POK themselves demand to merge with India. This has now been repeated several times. The strategy is clear, that India develops Indian Kashmir massively, such that the people in POK demand to merge with India. There have been several agitations already demanding that. When India is ready, the signal will be given to the people of POK to demand merger.

There have also been reports in the Guardian that India/Indian proxies have killed over 20 high level terrorists in Pak. This is the softening of  Pak, so that the trouble makers are eliminated before the big move for POK. When asked about that, he did not deny it. Even Modi has recently said that we will enter the homes of Paki terrorists and kill them there.

It would not surprise me if this happens in Modi's next term. He is 73 yrs old, his term is of 5 years. I am guessing he wants to retire as the best PM of India, which will include taking back POK.

27
As dmg from a time gone by, might have said, below are the keys to the adytum. Its not seen very clearly on the chart, but where the 2 moving averages meet, will be the top of the market. Worked the last two times. Will post a clearer chart when its time.  If you count the green MACD bars (2 month bars), the next 3-4 bars will give the next major top, which coincides with what I have indicated before, October 2024. Having said that, the market always humbles everyone, it cant be so easy!


28
You mentioned a 90 day waiting period before the big funds can buy in or something like that.  What does that period end?

ETF's went live Jan 11...the 90-100 day period ends soon.

29
BTC ETF net inflows have been flat, GBTC outflows have slowed. Soon it will be time to complete consolidation and move up.

31
India-US relationship had a bad week. My comments in green.

"US-India partnership had a bad week. Kejriwal row (corrupt politician, possible CIA). CAA controversy (US comment on India offering citizenship to minorities in muslim countries). Biden letter to Pakistan (Biden congratulating pak PM). US embassy invites Kashmiris to Iftar party (Basically inviting anti-India elements). Jaishankar (India's Foreign Minister) says India and Russia take good care of each other."

35
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 25, 2024, 04:19:31 AM »
For months now, Martin Armstrong has been beating the war drums. May 7 2024 is a critical and long forecasted date, based on his proprietary Socrates arrays. A lot of things are lining up, together with some other currency data. It takes some experience to read these arrays. the rouble is also getting stronger.



37
Posted by Fiat hawk on X

"Buckle up.  Things are about to get wild.

One thing I rarely see discussed about the game theory of #Bitcoin is that the incentives are aligned in such a way that the game speeds up over time.

During the initial phases of the game, #Bitcoin was a strange foreign idea in cyberspace. It was risky, it was uncertain, it was hard to buy, and hard to store. Only the outcasts, the explorers, and the free thinkers joined during the early wave, and they were handsomely rewarded for doing so.

Now, the talk I frequently hear is that the best gains are behind us. What's the point? I missed Bitcoin. I should have bought it when it was cheap. Etc...

While it is true that the biggest percentage gains are behind us, the biggest and fastest adoption is just around the corner. Also, even if you have dismissed #Bitcoin, the cost of ignoring it will soon become unbearable.

The game theory will soon switch from greed to fear, and for the first time ever, fear will drive #Bitcoin higher and higher instead of lower and lower.

Why is that?

The bitcoin network grows stronger and becomes more valuable with every person that joins.

At the same time, the fiat monetary system becomes weaker with every person that leaves.

While adoption was still tiny, the cost of ignoring Bitcoin was negligible. You missed out on the gains, but otherwise, it was not important. Soon, however, that will no longer be the case. Everyone knows that fiat money is being debased at an accelerating pace. With every person that exits into Bitcoin, it means that those left with fiat will now have to carry the burden of those that have left. In other words, the cost of staying with fiat will exponentially increase over time.

Think about it. Does the national debt decrease if people leave the US? No. The same is true with monetary networks. Unfortunately for those holding fiat, it is a debt-based system, and the people opting out with #Bitcoin no longer have to care or worry about that debt.

This is why the best money always wins, and why there can only be one winner. I also believe that's why the fastest growth in Bitcoin adoption is just ahead of us. It will go from a trickle, to a rush, and end in a stampede.

At some point, you won't be able to exchange fiat for #Bitcoin at any price, and all of your models will be destroyed."

38
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 24, 2024, 05:00:03 AM »
Somebody on Twitter.

"One of the questions people are asking is why the IS attacked in Moscow and why now. First, it is not since yesterday. In the case of the Russian Federation, its years of repression in the Caucasus, its intervention in Syria, and its role in Central Asia are among the reasons Russia has been targeted. This news rarely makes the Western web pages, but there are frequent reports in the Russian media of "anti-terrorist" operations by Russian security forces in the Caucasus regions, Chechnya and Ingushetia. Most recently, the FSB conducted 13-hour-long gun battles with armed men in a town in Ingushetia who have no connection to the IS but are anti-government and attacked police posts.

Interestingly, unlike the attack in Moscow, in that case in Ingushetia, Russian authorities announced that they had eliminated IS fighters. Now that the heart of the empire has been struck by IS, things look different. The Kremlin will not admit that security has been compromised, that the group that the Russian army claimed to have destroyed in the ruins of Palmyra is not at the gates of Moscow but has already broken through.

There is hardly a message from the IS as ignored as the one on the Moscow attack. The Russian government has launched a narrative that Ukraine was behind the attack, and the narrative has been building over the past twenty-four hours. Although the organization released footage of the attack itself - very brutal footage showing the brutality of the attack - the Russian Federation is sticking to its Ukrainian thesis and will use it repeatedly. In the meantime, Russia remains exposed to more terrorist attacks due to its inability to deter them."

39
I am not so smart, just read smart people :-D but thanks.

BTW, India is undergoing general elections in May 2024. Modi is expected to sweep the polls by the largest number of seats ever. The west is still not recognizing the Modi juggernaut, for they continue to diss him. Here's a typical election song for Modi, one of many. Modi has pushed Indian nationalism and Hinduism. Many of the visuals are from holy places that Modi visits, or the huge crowds that come to see Modi.
https://youtu.be/nndR8gHEsBw

40
Politics & Religion / Re: US-Russia
« on: March 23, 2024, 12:24:43 PM »
UKr will get blamed.. ISIS bombing Russia does not make sense. Russia is a major supporter of the muslim world at the moment. From Hamas to Saudis to Iran.
Obama was visiting London a few days ago..probably carrying a message.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1769821700198105301

41
Politics & Religion / Re: European matters
« on: March 23, 2024, 09:17:00 AM »
"“Europe is a digital colony of the United States… an economic colony of China… a demographic colony of Africa… and is about to become a religious colony of Islam.”

42
Politics & Religion / Re: Inidan nuke capable missile tests
« on: March 23, 2024, 08:33:46 AM »
India Adds Firepower to a Missile Program Focused on China
India tested a missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, the latest advance in its homegrown Agni-V program
By
Rajesh Roy
Follow
March 11, 2024 1:49 pm ET

NEW DELHI—India has successfully conducted the maiden flight test of an indigenously developed ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Monday, a development that enhances the country’s nuclear deterrence against rivals China and Pakistan.

The intercontinental ballistic missile called Agni-5, which in Sanskrit means “fire,” is equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, or MIRV technology, that allows it to launch multiple attacks in one go across different locations, according to two senior serving government officials.


India has been developing and testing its Agni series of missiles for more than a decade as it looks to catch up with China’s military strength. It first tested the Agni-5 series in 2012, and since then has been adding technological advancements to it and retesting. The country has said its Agni-5 program is in line with India’s stated policy to have a credible minimum deterrence and its commitment to no first-use of nuclear weapons.

In 2019, India successfully tested a missile capable of destroying a satellite in space, technology also held by only a few powers.

The surface-to-surface Agni missile is capable of striking targets of more than 5,000 kilometers, or 3,100 miles, with a high degree of accuracy. That trails the capabilities of China’s longest-range missiles.

Still, this puts Beijing and its neighborhood within the direct target range of India’s Strategic Forces Command, the dedicated tri-services nuclear force under the direct control of the prime minister, said New Delhi-based defense analyst N.C. Bipindra.

The MIRV-capable ballistic missile can target multiple strategic sites about 1,500 kilometers, or 930 miles apart, and “that is a significant nuclear strike capability for any nation to have,” he said. He added that Agni-5 development was largely focused on China, which New Delhi now views as the most serious military threat to India.


So why is MIRV capability important in the Indian context: China has an advantage in the number of nuclear warheads over India and also has access to larger kiloton nuclear bombs. MIRV capability neutralizes this edge, because each missile can carry multiple war heads (3-10), many of which will serve as decoy missiles. No body can be sure of shooting down tens of nuclear capable missiles. Expect more such tests, possibly also from submarine based missiles. The Agni V missiles brings all parts of China under missile reach. No place to hide.

43
Lets discuss a bit, China's problems with India.

1. Northern Land Borders: Only India and Bhutan have unsettled borders with China in the North. They dont want to settle the land borders, so that India stays distracted in the mountains and not focus on the Indian Ocean region, where lies major vulnerability for the Chinese.
2. China's Indian Ocean vulnerability Most are aware of the Malacca strait choke point, from where China's shipping lanes can be choked, all export/import of goods  mostly comes to a stop, if that were to be blocked.

However, there are other choke points.
a) As you come out of the Malacca straits, Chinese ships have to pass to the south of the Andaman Nicobar islands (which belong to India). Its a major naval base (Andaman Nicobar command). So called 10 degree channel.

b) Recently, Maldives (muslim state on the south west of Sri Lanka)), tried to kick out India and replace them with China, forgetting that they are completely reliable on India for their economy, tourists and even fresh water!. No doubt a lot of money exchanged hands after their new President was elected. China thought they gained a major foothold in the Indian Ocean (no base as yet). Problem is that India activated a new naval base in the Minicoy islands (India owned) between Minicoy and Maldives, the so called 8 degree channel. this creates a new choke point.

c) Further north of Minicoy are major naval bases in the Lakshdweep islands (India owned), so called 9 degree channel, which is another choke point.

d) Look south of the Maldives, there lies Diego Garcia a part of the Chagos Islands, a major US base.

e) Even if Chinese subs were to cross south of these choke points, India has additional listening stations in Madagascar, Seychelles, Mauritius etc, These islands have many Indian origin people due to historical trade routes and relations are very close with India.

China is in no position to exert force in the Indian Ocean, unless they are dealing with small nations such as Phillipines, Vietnam etc.

44
Interesting Interview by Martin Armstrong. I think he is really good with his understanding of global markets, but he is not in favor of BTC. I think understanding of BTC eludes him. Just to be on the safe side, I plan to lighten my BTC position sometime this cycle, but keep some for another 10 years or more.

https://www.smartinvestor.de/2023/03/22/es-scheint-als-wolle-jeder-krieg-2/

45
Politics & Religion / Re: ya clarifies India's intentions
« on: March 23, 2024, 04:21:03 AM »
"The media has created a false narrative that India wants to dedollarize via BRICS. This is all fake news. Except Russia and China, no one wants to dedollarize. Infact  the BRICS group is not coming out with a new currency, inspite the propaganda by the media. Infact, India has been clear, there is no BRICS currency. To know the facts, search for any Indian govt official saying that there will be a BRICS currency. The only one who can destroy the $ is the USA itself.!"

wow

why is the media making this up?
is this CCP propaganda?

or from other sources other political reasons?

The gold bugs are the main group pushing the BRICS currency narrative. Since the US keeps printing $, deficits are 34 Trillion and rising at the rate of a Trillion $ every 100 days. In other words, the value of the US $ is declining and foreigners holding US $ see the value of their holdings decline. The US dollar is very liquid, no other currency can provide that liquidity for world trade, bond holdings etc. The $ is king, the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry. Having said that, the US $ is losing influence and there is an increasing trend to do bilateral trade in local currencies, but even this does not work well beyond a certain point. eg Russia sells India oil, India pays back in Rupees (due to US sanctions on Russia), but now Russia has billions of Rupees and does not know what to do with them since the Rupee is not a $ convertible currency (think of Chuck-e-Cheese tokens), everyone wants $ or a $ convertible currency. Now Russia is being forced to invest the Rupees in India !.

China is the other big holder of US Treasuries and they are dumping them as fast as they can (see a chart of the Chinese long term holdings of US Treasuries). US wants to go to war with China, why would China hold any US Treasuries  and support the currency of an "enemy" nation.

The US is abusing its reserve currency (printing into oblivion), freezing Russian assets and pushing to give them to Ukr (this is against International law), kicking Russia out of SWIFT the international currency exchange system (international trust is lost, now the Chinese and Iranians have built their own system).

The push by the US to use frozen Russian assets for rebuilding Ukr is a smart geopolitical move by USA, this will destroy Europe! and make it a US vassal state. The frozen assets are in European banks, and international law does not allow unilateral seizure of assets, so if Europeans being broke themselves, were to give them to Ukr, they would be breaking the law and the Russian counter-retaliation would be against European assets held in Russia, i.e. Europe ends up losing its assets in Russia. This is a bit like the US blowing up the Nordstream pipeline, supposedly to hurt Russia, but it actually hurts Europe more since their economies cannot function without cheap Russian oil and now Germany is in recession. A smart way to destroy the European economy, so that Europe behaves and remains under US influence. Can you fault India for trying to stay non-aligned ?.

46
" What India craves is consistent pro India policy from the US. The US is not sure who they want to support, its fickle. On and off the US starts to support Pak or China to exert pressure on India, even though the US needs India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific."

if the US was consistently pro India would Modi reciprocate

I mean India is part of the BRIC nations trying to undermine the US dollar.

seems like Pakistan is a frenemy, we are trying to balance our interests with both ways.
Kind of like our relationship with Turkey .

The media has created a false narrative that India wants to dedollarize via BRICS. This is all fake news. Except Russia and China, no one wants to dedollarize. Infact  the BRICS group is not coming out with a new currency, inspite the propaganda by the media. Infact, India has been clear, there is no BRICS currency. To know the facts, search for any Indian govt official saying that there will be a BRICS currency. The only one who can destroy the $ is the USA itself.!

47
Politics & Religion / Modi in Bhutan
« on: March 22, 2024, 04:52:11 AM »
See the warm welcome that Modi got when he visited Bhutan. Its just a few minutes long. The dance in the last few minutes is an Indian dance from Modi's home state, danced by Bhutanis. This is why China can never take over Bhutan, or even Nepal (inspite the communist regime in Nepal at the moment).

https://twitter.com/i/status/1771102165530034187

P.S. He was awarded Bhutan's highest civilian award, this visit. Modi keeps getting highest national awards from several muslim/arab countries, even France.

48
What India craves is consistent pro India policy from the US. The US is not sure who they want to support, its fickle. On and off the US starts to support Pak or China to exert pressure on India, even though the US needs India to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

With Trump relations were excellent, one should see the welcome that Trump got when he visited India. Trump never supported Pak and was very pro India.

49
Politics & Religion / Denmark: Relative Violent Crime Rates by Nation
« on: March 22, 2024, 04:40:26 AM »

50
Those following BTC, most of the decline is due to the massive selling by GBTC. Yesterday was 7000 BTC and day before 9600 BTC. Infact, GBTC CEO came out and said, at some point, they will reduce the fees. GBTC has lost half its stack so far. Not clear what is happening or why they are doing this to themselves, probably related to the shenanigans of Barry Silbert/DCG. DCG is bankrupt and they need the high fees to pay off that debt.

Having said that historically, previous 2 halvings have had similar volatility at this stage of the cycle, so this is not outside the ordinary. I still think July-Oct will be a an excellent period, thats what my interpretation of the tea leaves suggest.

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