Fire Hydrant of Freedom

Biden admin has not been a good ally. They keep doing the things that pi$$ off Indians.

- Biden backed out of India's Republic day parade at short notice, Macron filled in. This is a parade watched by nearly all of India.
- US keeps supporting well known Khalistani terrorists, such as Pannu, the Canadian American, to keep the pressure on India and so that India behaves!.
- India recently passed a law the CAA which allows non-muslim minorities from neighboring countries to seek citizenship in India, since after the partition of India beyween India and Pak they were left behind on the wrong side. Typically, these are hindus, sikhs, parsis, christians etc, all except muslims since muslims are not oppressed in Pak, Afghanistan, Bangladesh. Ofcourse the US passed comments on it as being oppressive to muslims. This is considered ridiculous, since both Bangladesh and Pak were created on the basis of religion, so that muslims could be safe in their own homeland !. The intent of the law is to save the oppressed non-muslims living in muslim lands.

A recent exchange between Garcetti US Ambassador and Jai Shanker Foreign Minister of India.

US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti : "US can't give up on principles. US is concerned about CAA & closely monitoring it."

EAM S Jaishankar : "Then, I have my principles too 🔥🔥. One of my principles is an obligation to the people wronged during partition." “You remove historical contexts & make an argument, and say oh I have principles and you don't have principles" ⚡ "You reacting as if partition of India never happened" - EAM S Jaishankar roared

Here's an Indian journalist asking about the matter. The hypocrisy of the west is obvious. Fast tracking of citizenships to various minorities and ethnicities has been done multiple times in the USA and Europe. https://twitter.com/i/status/1769433752340730264

- Keeps pressurizing India by holding back approved weapons purchases.

Trump got along very well with Modi.

The main disagreement with the Biden admin, is India's close relationship with Russia which is time tested and not fickle like with the USA. Biden wants India to stop purchasing Russian oil, even though India processes the oil and sells it back to Europe at high price or uses oil for its own use. The Europeans need the oil, its a face saving way for them to purchase it. The US continues to trade with Russia, eg uranium and other commodities.

wow

Ya, do you think India Pakistan union is possible?

No India does not want a Union with Pak, only POK which is still mostly Shia and provides connectivity to Afghanistan. Mainland Pak is full of wahabbi sunnis, that even the Arabs dont want. i do see Pak breaking up, Balochistan becoming free, the Pashtun areas going to Afghanistan and southern pak (Sindhudesh) becoming free. The land locked state of paki Punjab would retain all the crazies.

If India gains economic strength and China continues to gobble up portions of Bhutan, they could join India too. Their neighboring region Sikkim which is similar to Bhutan, became an Indian state.

Not Pak, but Gilgit Baltistan loosely called Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), which is Indian Territory per the Constitution of India and India has a strong legal basis for it. Since independence, the Parliament has empty seats for representatives from POK. Gilgit and Baltistan are the major areas that are being contested

.

These are Shia areas. There is a small sliver of land near Muzaffarabad so called Azad Kashmir or Free Kashmir (seen on the map, left middle side), that is Sunni and India has no interest in it, though the people from there too are protesting to join India as the 3 areas Gilgit, Baltistan and Azad Kashmir comprise POK. The map also shows Aksai Chin that China has occupied and adjacent to it is territory that Pak ceded to China, which is also Indian territory per legal documents.

To understand India's historical civilizational ties with Afghanistan, Balochistan, Tibet etc, You may want to read about Akhand Bharat (separate issue), which shows the old Indian territories, from not too long ago.

POK stands for Pak Occupied Kashmir. Before India got Independence from the British in 1947, it was ruled by princely states and they were given a choice to either join the Union of India or Pakistan. The ruler of Kashmir chose to join India (Hindu king), so all parts of his kingdom became part of India. Due to strategic mistakes by Indian PM Nehru, Pak managed to occupy some parts of it but India has never given up its claims to it. Infact in the new parliament which was inaugurated in India last year, India re-allocated 24 seats for people of POK. India's strategy is to weaken Pak economically and strengthen itself economically and militarily incase China decides to interfere in favor of pak. Its only a matter of time, that POK will come back to India. India will then have a direct land connection to Afghanistan through the Wakhan corridor. This will cut the geopolitical importance of Pak, as well as block China's Belt and Road Initiative which goes thro POK occupied Kashmir to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea through the port of Gwadar.

BTC hopium from Tim Peterson. He is very conservative, posted a chart showing BTC at 1 million in 2 years

Watch the inflows

Great note by Stackhodler.

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1766045760477372603

Welcome aboard, Musashi. BTC is time.

Free BTC booklet, by the amzing Anil Patel

https://thebitcoinhandbook.com/

Try this

https://youtu.be/nJeddv1QbeQ

Gold ETF's are losing funds (are being demonetized), while BTC ETF's are gaining funds. Overtime, BTC will exceed the Gold market cap of 11 Trillion, which should be worth 500 K in BTC terms.

GBTC still has some selling going on, this relates to some funny business Barry Silbert was involved in. This will subside soon.

Watch the rate of inflow in $ or BTC to the ETF's. Even at 50 % of the current inflow rate, BTC will be over 100 K/coin by the end of 2024. However, this assumes no black swans, though some like war could actually expedite this.

India plays hardball, cuts UN funding by 50 %, threatens to withdrawn UN peacekeeping forces. Demands UN Security Council seat.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/india-cuts-un-funding-expert-wants-end-to-peacekeeping/

In Laos and Sierra Leone, if you hold 1 BTC, you hold a billion of their currency. Where the heck are these places ?

Gold funds are being demonetized. Money is moving from Gold Funds to BTC funds

Look at the upper panel on the right side, the retail guys are currently selling (red-orange), but the whales (large buyers owners of 100 + BTC, blue color) are holding.



An updated chart shows that even the small holders are now buying.

Zoom out

Please all remember that BTC does pull back, so no one get over their skis. Though, my estimation is that the next 2 years 2024-2025 are likely to be up (based on past performance). And we all know what they say about past performance.

ETF flows should be monitored, these will fluctuate over time. The top 4 ETF's are now obvious. Note: that 900 new coins are mined every day, after April, new supply will shrink to 450/day. Current inflows (demand) are about 10x the daily supply. At some point, prices must go up.

Martin Armstrong is calling for increased market volatility and a pull back and or consolidation in the Dow for Feb...he does expect 2025 and 2026 to be higher.

Depending on the time period looked at, BTC may correlate or not with the stock market. i.e. It can be both a risk on and risk off asset.

I mean they are generally right, but Fidelity has the most balanced and accurate takes on BTC. ARK is also good, particularly if you like to hear about million $/coin. Overall, I am very bullish, there is much going on in the background. Over 1ooK is very likely this year, not trying to get very bullish, but staying grounded.

- Investment advisors need to wait 3 months after a new ETF, to invest in them. We have not even seen peak FOMO as yet.
- All we need is a sovereign country like Saudi Arabia or Qatar to add BTC to their sovereign funds or Treasuries and price could double overnight.
- New FASB accounting regulations come into force at the end of this year, this makes it easy for companies to buy BTC directly.
- Europe still is missing some forms to allow them to buy US BTC ETF's.
- My suggestion is to have a plan as to when you will take profits this cycle, but never selling all your coins. Ofcourse, this depends on your age too. Once the parabolic run starts, BTC fever and greed can mess you up.
- My conservative case is 125 K, probable 200 K and bull case is 500 K for this cycle by 2025 end of year.
- Ofcourse, I cannot predict the future, so the above is hopium. Black Swans do happen.