Fire Hydrant of Freedom

The US is in a bind. It cannot, not send Pelosi, otherwise all credibility as a super power and that the US will defend Taiwan is gone. If we cannot even send Pelosi, just how strong is our support for Taiwan ?. China is just huffing and puffing, IMHO.

India ready to launch new bullion exchange...Gold is what attracts Indians

https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/pm-narendra-modi-to-launch-international-bullion-exchange-on-july-29-122072501153_1.html#.YuApx5T_yvM.twitter

Credit Suisse wealth report
https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html

Might be interesting. We have used the USD as a weapon, and thus forfeited our standing as the world's reserve currency. Locking Russia out of SWIFt was a monumental mistake. In the past, the US could punish Saddam and Gaddafi for pricing oil in Euros, we are now trying to do that with Russia. So far Russia has a better balance sheet than the US from what I understand.

- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dollar-dominance-russia-china-rouble-yuan-brics-reserve-currency-imf-2022-6
- The high USD is causing havoc all over the world.

Luke Gromen has written a lot about this, infact his website has a free pdf (email reqd) that reads almost like a thriller, written several years ago, but explains the current Ukr-Russia war quite well.

The US thinking so far has been that dollar=oil and we can print dollars as much as we want. Gromen's thinking is that all the power is in the hands of the guy with the commodity. Gromen says, the world will pay for oil in their own currencies which will not be backed by a fixed price gold, but a floating gold rate. Apparently, China already does this for Yuan transactions.

He also thinks, the US will have to devalue the currency, significantly to deal with our deficits and solve the Triffin dilemma. Please do read this...I loved it
https://fftt-llc.com/

https://thebitcoinlayer.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-an-inflation-hedge-yes

muchas gracias..

Well CDS rates are rising across the world. SriLanka has collapsed, many so called Frontier economies will collapse too. Famine could come to Africa, India has restricted wheat exports. All we need is Putin to shut oil/gas to Europe and if they run out of heat, things could get interesting.

My spanish language knowledge is non existent, but I think the below means that, paraguay has passed a law that will allow use of excess hydroenergy to mine BTC.

https://www.criptonoticias.com/regulacion/senado-paraguay-ley-bitcoin-presidente/

Fed Reserve getting interested in BTC
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4142590

There was a contagion due to all the investors, invested in shit coins and in companies which rehypothecate your BTC and give high yield. Sam is buying these companies very cheaply. With BTC, as long as one is not margined, BTC always comes back whereas these altcoins will disappear and go to zero. Next bull market a new batch of altcoins will emerge and the cycle repeats. BTC has had four 80-85 % pullbacks. Every all time high has been higher than before, same with the lows. Unless, I am misunderstanding the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) proposal, they will allow banks to hold 1 % of crypto. Once the document is finalized...this should be bullish. Neither the EU, nor the US has any plans to try and ban BTC...perhaps because it is very difficult to ban it, as China has learned.

Responded..thank you

YA:  Sent you two emails-- have you received them?

Sorry, did not get any, perhaps you mistyped the address ?

 This is good new, its still a draft from BIS, second consultative effort published June 30, 2022  https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d533.htm
If finalized, 1 % of bank reserves is a lot of moolah.

"Group 2 exposure limit
The large exposure rules of the Basel Framework are not designed to capture large exposures to an asset
type, but to individual counterparties or groups of connected counterparties. This would imply, for
example, no large exposure limits on cryptoasset where there is no counterparty, such as Bitcoin. The
Committee proposes, therefore, to introduce a new exposure limit for all Group 2 cryptoassets outside of
the large exposure rules. The Group 2 exposure limit is set out in SCO60.121 to SCO60.124 and has the
following features:
• Provisional limit set at 1% of Tier 1 capital, to be reviewed periodically."

July 6 big decision for GBTC
https://grayscale.com/spot-bitcoin-etf-comment-analysis/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=pr,sales+biz+dev+ir&utm_content=7161705164&utm_campaign=gbtc+etf+filing&linkId=170671008

Looks like the ETF was denied. GBTC has filed to sue the SEC.

July 6 big decision for GBTC
https://grayscale.com/spot-bitcoin-etf-comment-analysis/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_term=pr,sales+biz+dev+ir&utm_content=7161705164&utm_campaign=gbtc+etf+filing&linkId=170671008

This is an interesting take on the impact of industrialization capacity between US and Russia

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-better-buy-more-bullets

BTC

So SEC just approved a BTF short ETF, before the spot ETF. Either Gensler is trying everything in his power to bring BTC down, or the spot ETF will be approved on july 6. As I have said before, GBTC plans to sue SEC if the spot ETF is not approved. Exciting times. Might be ironic if the short ETF marks the BTC bottom.

Yes, the US should push back against China. The problem in Indian and Taiwan govt circles is that no one knows the true committment of the USA. If the US gets a good deal with China, both India and Taiwan will be dumped. Under Trump, the Europeans were threatened with weakening of NATO. Under Biden, the Saudi Alliance is weak. We throw around our weight willy nilly, but the almighty petrodollar is not what it used to be and rivals are coming up. Ukr. will be dumped by the USA and it will further damage our credibility. If tomorrow Putin decides to use a nuke on Ukr, does anyone think anybody is going to do anything about it ?. Ukr has no treaty with the USA. This is the reason, Putin will win in the final escalation. Infact, even if Putin nukes a NATO country like Poland, Estonia etc, the US may not respond with nukes (best guess), even though there would be war. Nukes will only be used, if there is a direct attack on America. Otherwise the complete destruction of the US (and Russia) is assured. I do not see any US president making that decision.

Yes.

Russia will win.

Minor correction...has already won. It occupies 20 % or more of territory, not a single sq.mile is likely to be returned. The question now is how much more will Ukr lose. Unless Zelensky. quickly compromises, Odessa and Transnystria will also go in this round. If Europe gives up on Russian energy, their economies go into recession, or at best are severely hampered due to high costs of purchasing oil from elsewhere. Oil is a zero sum game, countries need oil, if they purchase from the Middle East, Russian oil simply gets diverted to the rest of the world. News reports are that Russian oil is purchased cheaply by India,  refined and resold at a higher price back to Europe.

This ZH article offers insights into Russian thinking https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-russias-new-rules

With the economy in a tail spin, someone is sure to ask Biden why are we sending billions to Ukr.  Ukr survives as long as the US funds them.

We are near anger-depression

Ukr-Russia war has become a proxy war run by the U.S. Russia is escalating by stopping/reducing gas flows to developed economies like Italy and Germany. Very soon they will cry Uncle. European unity may not last too long come winter. Giving Ukr heavy weapons does not change the result, Russia starts using heavier weapons. More civilians die and Ukr infrastructure gets damaged.

BTC is most oversold in history. Unless someone thinks its done for, it will be higher again in the future. In the meantime, it is very painful. If I had more powder, I would buy more.

Pope sides with Putin
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/14/pope-nato-may-have-provoked-russian-invasion-ukraine-not-pro/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1655216267-1