Fire Hydrant of Freedom

So SEC just approved a BTF short ETF, before the spot ETF. Either Gensler is trying everything in his power to bring BTC down, or the spot ETF will be approved on july 6. As I have said before, GBTC plans to sue SEC if the spot ETF is not approved. Exciting times. Might be ironic if the short ETF marks the BTC bottom.

Yes, the US should push back against China. The problem in Indian and Taiwan govt circles is that no one knows the true committment of the USA. If the US gets a good deal with China, both India and Taiwan will be dumped. Under Trump, the Europeans were threatened with weakening of NATO. Under Biden, the Saudi Alliance is weak. We throw around our weight willy nilly, but the almighty petrodollar is not what it used to be and rivals are coming up. Ukr. will be dumped by the USA and it will further damage our credibility. If tomorrow Putin decides to use a nuke on Ukr, does anyone think anybody is going to do anything about it ?. Ukr has no treaty with the USA. This is the reason, Putin will win in the final escalation. Infact, even if Putin nukes a NATO country like Poland, Estonia etc, the US may not respond with nukes (best guess), even though there would be war. Nukes will only be used, if there is a direct attack on America. Otherwise the complete destruction of the US (and Russia) is assured. I do not see any US president making that decision.

Yes.

Russia will win.

Minor correction...has already won. It occupies 20 % or more of territory, not a single sq.mile is likely to be returned. The question now is how much more will Ukr lose. Unless Zelensky. quickly compromises, Odessa and Transnystria will also go in this round. If Europe gives up on Russian energy, their economies go into recession, or at best are severely hampered due to high costs of purchasing oil from elsewhere. Oil is a zero sum game, countries need oil, if they purchase from the Middle East, Russian oil simply gets diverted to the rest of the world. News reports are that Russian oil is purchased cheaply by India,  refined and resold at a higher price back to Europe.

This ZH article offers insights into Russian thinking https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-russias-new-rules

With the economy in a tail spin, someone is sure to ask Biden why are we sending billions to Ukr.  Ukr survives as long as the US funds them.

We are near anger-depression

Ukr-Russia war has become a proxy war run by the U.S. Russia is escalating by stopping/reducing gas flows to developed economies like Italy and Germany. Very soon they will cry Uncle. European unity may not last too long come winter. Giving Ukr heavy weapons does not change the result, Russia starts using heavier weapons. More civilians die and Ukr infrastructure gets damaged.

BTC is most oversold in history. Unless someone thinks its done for, it will be higher again in the future. In the meantime, it is very painful. If I had more powder, I would buy more.

Pope sides with Putin
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/14/pope-nato-may-have-provoked-russian-invasion-ukraine-not-pro/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1655216267-1

Worth a quick perusal, skip the first few pages..

https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2022_06_14.pdf

Nice thread on twitter about markets

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1536283396053291008

So BTC is at 25 K, it could go down to 22K. This is analogous to 2018, where BTC was at $ 3400 and everybody thought, it would go to $ 1000. I am holding. What this bear market does is, it kills many of the $hitcoins and while BTC bounces back, the $hitcoins get killed. This cycle BTC seems correlated with the general markets, so until the markets start to recover, BTC may not recover. In times like this I review the chart below. Here the red line GDP pays for the blue line (debt). There is no way that GDP will increase so much that the debt will be paid off. Neither can interest rates rise very much, for then the debt becomes unaffordable. So the only way to pay off the debt is by more money printing. This will take the form of UBI, student loan forgiveness, more stimulus checks, or even a good monkeypox scare. All of this is good for BTC, the only asset where the supply (inflation) reduces over time. Lots of other positive developments, eg Sen.Lummis/Gillebrand have a BTC related bill in the Senate under review.

It is understandable that the US govt wants India to side with the west and the USA. The problem is that there is decades of Indian experience where the US has imposed sanctions on India, or supported Pak with weapons that kill Indians. In contrast, Russia has been a steadfast ally, though that is changing as it moves closer to China, while India moves closer to the USA. India is completely dependent on Russia for weapons and supplies, around 70 % of which are Russian in origin. Russia also shares technology that the US would never do, eg that relating to nuclear subs, it also leases nuclear powered subs to India. Even today, the US keeps threatening to put CAATSA sanctions on India for buying Russian S-400 missiles. France is another country, which has always supported India, especially with military technology and there is good mutual trust.

So things are changing slowly, my guess is it takes another decade or so before their is enough trust. Indian purchases of US weapons are increasing all the time, but it will take one obtuse move by the US to set back Indo-US relations by decades.

What the US needs to learn is that the carrot and stick (threats) approach does not work with India, it only hardens anti-US resolve. US India policy needs to be stable and ironclad (like how it was by the Russians). The second thing is that any pro Pak overtures are perceived very negatively in India. This pro Pak policy stems from the US desire to strengthen Pak, so that India does not gain an upper hand against pak. Now they do the same vis a vis China, though in this instance it benefits India. The concern is that as soon as US-China relations improve, India will be sacrificed and so full trust is never obtained.

Will Pak implode...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/40000-factories-risk-closing-pakistans-capital-amid-fuel-crisis

Here's a nice article Casares. It was written in 2019.
https://www.kanaandkatana.com/valuation-depot-contents/2019/4/11/the-case-for-a-small-allocation-to-bitcoin

Note: How he estimates the price of BTC

My preferred way of guessing how the price of Bitcoin may evolve is much more prosaic. I have noticed over time that the price of Bitcoin fluctuates around ~ $7,000 x how many people own bitcoins. So if that constant maintains and if 3 billion people ever own Bitcoin it would be worth ~ $21 trillion (~ $7,000 x 3 billion) or $1 million per Bitcoin.

That means if there are 1 billion users by 2025 (several estimates of BTC users growing faster than the internet), BTC is priced at 333K. The halving is in 2024 and BTC usually peaks 1 year later, so 2025 would be a good time to cash out, unless of course BTC peaks this year.

Even the NYT has given up on Ukr.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/new-york-times-dramatic-shift-victory-ukraine

Only money printing can help us.

Anyone understand this stuff ?, Greg Foss 35 y. experience Bond veteran says BTC should be at 400K now, based on CDS swaps of sovereign nations. Part 3 is where he shows his calculations.

https://rockstarinnercircle.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Why-Every-Fixed-Income-Investor-Needs-To-Consider-Bitcoin-As-Portfolio-Insurance.pdf

Some historical perspective on Ukr

https://contra.substack.com/p/the-road-to-the-russo-ukrainian-war?s=w

Many $hitcoins are going to Zero this time, Luna, Hex and Celsius are a few examples. They are not coming back. History repeats.

BTC needs some time to mature, note what is happening to the BTC supply, very little supply will come over the next few years. Infact after 8 years, practically speaking no more new supply and anything new that is available, will likely be balanced by people losing their keys!. Patience is the name of the game. Several billionaires like Michael Saylor and Bill Miller in the US, Ricardo Salinas in Mexico and others have significant BTC holdings. OTOH, BTC demand is increasing world wide, with many jurisdictions making it legal tender. When demand increases and supply cannot meet it, prices go up. That is the reason you are seeing BTC hold its price around 29K, while the $hitcoins are going to zero. BTC could still go down to 22K, but it has never in its history gone below a previous all time high (20K). So, I wait and buy more, anytime I have some spare cash.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1530506101774376960

Martin Armstrong is anti-Crypto and is misinformed on BTC. But this is an important wide ranging interview and where we are headed, along with Ukr, Putin, Neocons, Money and how to handle the next few years. Not sure which thread would fit this..so here.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-in-the-media/interview-food-shortages-economic-collapse-the-failing-great-reset-how-to-prepare/

Slowly, then suddenly. Hyperbitcoinization will happen.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/russia-reportedly-mulls-allowing-crypto-international-payments

Dotted pink/yellow areas are recent Russian advances

There is only one king...The $hitcoins are puking. Happens every cycle. Many will go to zero and a new crop of coins will be peddled to noobs, and the cycle of life begins again. See my previous chart on altcoin longevity. LTC is the longest living altcoin, but its lost its place too.

Why one should not buy $hitcoins

Ukraine could have held a referendum in Donbas (Minsk agreement) and agreed to Crimea as Russian territory. Its too late now. Russia is focussed on getting the whole of Donbas, once that is done, Odessa will be challenged and after that a land bridge to Transnystria. Over the longer term, Russia has more resources and potent weapons and will win.

The loss of the nazi Azov battalion was a big psychological victory for Russia and a loss for Ukr. After their surrender, Russia has been gaining territory and Zelensky is starting to talk peace.