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Recent Posts
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Politics & Religion / Promoting tariffs, a dangerous game
« Last post by DougMacG on Today at 01:18:34 AM »"Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each."
"Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable? What would you have us do?"
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1. China is a special exception, they steal from us and they are a military adversary.
2. The unrecipical nature of the trading world Trump walked into justifies the tactics he is currently taking.but my understanding is the end game of reciprocal tariffs is zero tariffs.
3. Propping up our noncompetitive industries while breaking down trading partner barriers seems contradictory to me. For every import tax we levy, we can expect more tariffs against our exports. No?
4. A tariff is a tax on our consumer. If they are widespread, then we are poorer. A tough tradeoff.
5. I come into this with with an exporter career bias. A small manufacturer here may have half its business overseas. While tariffs may protect some here they jeopardize others with retaliatory tariffs overseas. Not win-win.
6. Again, the list of countries with lowest barriers to trade and highest barriers, like the Heritage economic freedom index, all point to a direct correlation between economic freedom, low taxes, low tariffs, and prosperity. Prosperity is a big deal, number one except for maybe freedom and security, and it plays a big role in those.
7. Old data but its been posted, docunented here that the high VAT countries of Europe would be the 46th richest state here if a US state (among the poorest) adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity, because of high consumption taxes.
8. Sorry but I have yet to see the raising and levying of new taxes make existing taxes go down. We have a $2 :trillion deficit. These revenues at best will chip that down, but not if new taxes and trade wars trigger recession or worse.
9. I side with Laffer, Steve Moore, Sowell, Adam Smith on this, here is Jude Wanniski:
Wanniski's 1978 book, The Way the World Works, documented his theory that the United States Senate's floor votes on the Smoot–Hawley tariff legislation coincided day to day with the Wall Street stock market Crash of 1929, and that the Great Depression was the result of the Smoot–Hawley tariff, rather than any failure...
https://en.wikipedia.org
Jude Wanniski, ki - Wikipedia
10. Trump is playing a high stakes poker game with this. I hope he wins. Winning means (to me) both sides taking their reciprial tariffs down to zero, like India, Vietnam, Britain have suggested.
11. I don't trust government industry technocrats to strike the aforementioned perfect protectionist balance.
12. Back to 1. China is special case. Mexico is a special case, we have goals other than trade. Carve out too many exceptions to free trade and per no. 6. above, prosperity suffers. With economic failure will come political failure, more socialism, less freedom.
JMHO.
Okay, one more, 13. Herman Cain's rule of 9-9-9. If you're going to tax something, let's not be talking in double digits, 25%, 50%, etc. State and local sales taxes I'm seeing across the nation already round to 10%, are bad enough. Add 10 more, the federal tariff to that and we're at 20%. There won't be a lot of consumin" goin' on out there even at that rate. I'm afraid we'll have the economic dynamism of socialist Europe.
"Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable? What would you have us do?"
-----------------------
1. China is a special exception, they steal from us and they are a military adversary.
2. The unrecipical nature of the trading world Trump walked into justifies the tactics he is currently taking.but my understanding is the end game of reciprocal tariffs is zero tariffs.
3. Propping up our noncompetitive industries while breaking down trading partner barriers seems contradictory to me. For every import tax we levy, we can expect more tariffs against our exports. No?
4. A tariff is a tax on our consumer. If they are widespread, then we are poorer. A tough tradeoff.
5. I come into this with with an exporter career bias. A small manufacturer here may have half its business overseas. While tariffs may protect some here they jeopardize others with retaliatory tariffs overseas. Not win-win.
6. Again, the list of countries with lowest barriers to trade and highest barriers, like the Heritage economic freedom index, all point to a direct correlation between economic freedom, low taxes, low tariffs, and prosperity. Prosperity is a big deal, number one except for maybe freedom and security, and it plays a big role in those.
7. Old data but its been posted, docunented here that the high VAT countries of Europe would be the 46th richest state here if a US state (among the poorest) adjusted for PPP, purchasing power parity, because of high consumption taxes.
8. Sorry but I have yet to see the raising and levying of new taxes make existing taxes go down. We have a $2 :trillion deficit. These revenues at best will chip that down, but not if new taxes and trade wars trigger recession or worse.
9. I side with Laffer, Steve Moore, Sowell, Adam Smith on this, here is Jude Wanniski:
Wanniski's 1978 book, The Way the World Works, documented his theory that the United States Senate's floor votes on the Smoot–Hawley tariff legislation coincided day to day with the Wall Street stock market Crash of 1929, and that the Great Depression was the result of the Smoot–Hawley tariff, rather than any failure...
https://en.wikipedia.org
Jude Wanniski, ki - Wikipedia
10. Trump is playing a high stakes poker game with this. I hope he wins. Winning means (to me) both sides taking their reciprial tariffs down to zero, like India, Vietnam, Britain have suggested.
11. I don't trust government industry technocrats to strike the aforementioned perfect protectionist balance.
12. Back to 1. China is special case. Mexico is a special case, we have goals other than trade. Carve out too many exceptions to free trade and per no. 6. above, prosperity suffers. With economic failure will come political failure, more socialism, less freedom.
JMHO.
Okay, one more, 13. Herman Cain's rule of 9-9-9. If you're going to tax something, let's not be talking in double digits, 25%, 50%, etc. State and local sales taxes I'm seeing across the nation already round to 10%, are bad enough. Add 10 more, the federal tariff to that and we're at 20%. There won't be a lot of consumin" goin' on out there even at that rate. I'm afraid we'll have the economic dynamism of socialist Europe.
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Politics & Religion / This is what Trump's bully mouth can produce.
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 07:37:42 PM »4
Politics & Religion / Crypto down, Gold up
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 01:27:48 PM »BTC drops to 83 and Gold now above $3100.
In that core argument for each is hard money, how can that be?
In that core argument for each is hard money, how can that be?
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Politics & Religion / White German Woman transitioning to black
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 01:24:58 PM »6
Politics & Religion / Re: Trade, Tariffs, Globalization, Strategic Mercantilismm and Globalism itself
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 10:32:56 AM »Strategic tariffs and reciprocal tariffs and punititve tariffs are distinct and different criteria apply to each.
Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable? What would you have us do?
Yes there are serious balancing challenges for each of these categories, but is continuing what we have now acceptable? What would you have us do?
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Politics & Religion / Atlantic Council and USAID and CIA
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 10:30:03 AM »8
Politics & Religion / Trump Kills National Security Unions
« Last post by Body-by-Guinness on March 28, 2025, 10:16:29 AM »Hmm, how will the unions respond?
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Exempts Agencies with National Security Missions from Federal Collective Bargaining Requirements
The White House
March 27, 2025
PROTECTING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order using authority granted by the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 (CSRA) to end collective bargaining with Federal unions in the following agencies with national security missions:
National Defense. Department of Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and Coast Guard.
VA serves as the backstop healthcare provider for wounded troops in wartime.
NSF-funded research supports military and cybersecurity breakthroughs.
Border Security. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) leadership components, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, U.S.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Executive Office of Immigration Review, and the Office of Refugee Resettlement within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
Foreign Relations. Department of State, U.S. Agency for International Development, Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, and U.S. International Trade Commission.
President Trump has demonstrated how trade policy is a national security tool.
Energy Security. Department of Energy, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Environmental Protection Agency, and Department of Interior units that govern domestic energy production.
The same Congress that passed the CSRA declared that energy insecurity threatens national security.
Pandemic Preparedness, Prevention, and Response. Within HHS, the Secretary’s Office, Office of General Counsel, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Food and Drug Administration, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. In the Department of Agriculture, the Office of General Counsel, Food Safety and Inspection Service, and Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.
COVID-19 and the recent bird flu have demonstrated how foreign pandemics affect national security.
VA is also a backstop healthcare provider during national emergencies, and served this role during COVID-19.
Cybersecurity. The Office of the Chief Information Officer in each cabinet-level department, as well as DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and the General Services Administration (GSA).
The FCC protects the reliability and security of America’s telecommunications networks.
GSA provides cybersecurity related services to agencies and ensures they do not use compromised telecommunications products.
Economic Defense. Department of Treasury.
The Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA) defines national security to include protecting America’s economic and productive strength. The Treasury Department collects the taxes that fund the government and ensures the stable operations of the financial system.
Public Safety. Most components of the Department of Justice as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Law Enforcement Unaffected. Police and firefighters will continue to collectively bargain.
ENSURING THAT AGENCIES OPERATE EFFECTIVELY: The CSRA enables hostile Federal unions to obstruct agency management. This is dangerous in agencies with national security responsibilities:
Agencies cannot modify policies in collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) until they expire.
The outgoing Biden Administration renegotiated many agencies’ CBAs to last through President Trump’s second term.
Agencies cannot make most contractually permissible changes until after finishing “midterm” union bargaining.
For example, the FLRA ruled that ICE could not modify cybersecurity policies without giving its union an opportunity to negotiate, and then completing midterm bargaining.
Unions used these powers to block the implementation of the VA Accountability Act; the Biden Administration had to offer reinstatement and backpay to over 4,000 unionized employees that the VA had removed for poor performance or misconduct.
SAFEGUARDING AMERICAN INTERESTS: President Trump is taking action to ensure that agencies vital to national security can execute their missions without delay and protect the American people. The President needs a responsive and accountable civil service to protect our national security.
Certain Federal unions have declared war on President Trump’s agenda.
The largest Federal union describes itself as “fighting back” against Trump. It is widely filing grievances to block Trump policies.
For example, VA’s unions have filed 70 national and local grievances over President Trump’s policies since the inauguration—an average of over one a day.
Protecting America’s national security is a core constitutional duty, and President Trump refuses to let union obstruction interfere with his efforts to protect Americans and our national interests.
President Trump supports constructive partnerships with unions who work with him; he will not tolerate mass obstruction that jeopardizes his ability to manage agencies with vital national security missions.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-exempts-agencies-with-national-security-missions-from-federal-collective-bargaining-requirements/
Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Exempts Agencies with National Security Missions from Federal Collective Bargaining Requirements
The White House
March 27, 2025
PROTECTING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order using authority granted by the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 (CSRA) to end collective bargaining with Federal unions in the following agencies with national security missions:
National Defense. Department of Defense, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and Coast Guard.
VA serves as the backstop healthcare provider for wounded troops in wartime.
NSF-funded research supports military and cybersecurity breakthroughs.
Border Security. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) leadership components, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, U.S.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Executive Office of Immigration Review, and the Office of Refugee Resettlement within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
Foreign Relations. Department of State, U.S. Agency for International Development, Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration, and U.S. International Trade Commission.
President Trump has demonstrated how trade policy is a national security tool.
Energy Security. Department of Energy, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Environmental Protection Agency, and Department of Interior units that govern domestic energy production.
The same Congress that passed the CSRA declared that energy insecurity threatens national security.
Pandemic Preparedness, Prevention, and Response. Within HHS, the Secretary’s Office, Office of General Counsel, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, Food and Drug Administration, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. In the Department of Agriculture, the Office of General Counsel, Food Safety and Inspection Service, and Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.
COVID-19 and the recent bird flu have demonstrated how foreign pandemics affect national security.
VA is also a backstop healthcare provider during national emergencies, and served this role during COVID-19.
Cybersecurity. The Office of the Chief Information Officer in each cabinet-level department, as well as DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), and the General Services Administration (GSA).
The FCC protects the reliability and security of America’s telecommunications networks.
GSA provides cybersecurity related services to agencies and ensures they do not use compromised telecommunications products.
Economic Defense. Department of Treasury.
The Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA) defines national security to include protecting America’s economic and productive strength. The Treasury Department collects the taxes that fund the government and ensures the stable operations of the financial system.
Public Safety. Most components of the Department of Justice as well as the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Law Enforcement Unaffected. Police and firefighters will continue to collectively bargain.
ENSURING THAT AGENCIES OPERATE EFFECTIVELY: The CSRA enables hostile Federal unions to obstruct agency management. This is dangerous in agencies with national security responsibilities:
Agencies cannot modify policies in collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) until they expire.
The outgoing Biden Administration renegotiated many agencies’ CBAs to last through President Trump’s second term.
Agencies cannot make most contractually permissible changes until after finishing “midterm” union bargaining.
For example, the FLRA ruled that ICE could not modify cybersecurity policies without giving its union an opportunity to negotiate, and then completing midterm bargaining.
Unions used these powers to block the implementation of the VA Accountability Act; the Biden Administration had to offer reinstatement and backpay to over 4,000 unionized employees that the VA had removed for poor performance or misconduct.
SAFEGUARDING AMERICAN INTERESTS: President Trump is taking action to ensure that agencies vital to national security can execute their missions without delay and protect the American people. The President needs a responsive and accountable civil service to protect our national security.
Certain Federal unions have declared war on President Trump’s agenda.
The largest Federal union describes itself as “fighting back” against Trump. It is widely filing grievances to block Trump policies.
For example, VA’s unions have filed 70 national and local grievances over President Trump’s policies since the inauguration—an average of over one a day.
Protecting America’s national security is a core constitutional duty, and President Trump refuses to let union obstruction interfere with his efforts to protect Americans and our national interests.
President Trump supports constructive partnerships with unions who work with him; he will not tolerate mass obstruction that jeopardizes his ability to manage agencies with vital national security missions.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-exempts-agencies-with-national-security-missions-from-federal-collective-bargaining-requirements/
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Politics & Religion / Re: Trade, Tariffs, Globalization, Strategic Mercantilismm and Globalism itself
« Last post by DougMacG on March 28, 2025, 10:08:43 AM »How would you apply your last sentence to China threatening to shut down its British steel operations?
"Regarding China etc. I don't see a conflict between free trade generally and banning imports, exports with adversaries."
Add 'ban Chinese ownership' to the above, if that's how they behave.
https://apnews.com/article/britain-steel-job-losses-scunthorpe-china-fe3a0edf7ebbc8340115677dddd9ddb5
I agree, free trade doesn't apply to thieves and scoundrels. In all trade policy discussions, China is a unique case.
Also, export licenses have long been required for military and dual use technologies.
I get what you are saying about protecting strategic Industries, but isn't that what Canada is doing with dairy and lumber, what Germany is doing with automobiles, etc. Accept all of that and add in all of ours plus the retaliations and where does it end?
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Isn't there a contradiction between setting tariffs so high that no one Imports steel for example, and having a steady tariff revenue stream?
Our central planners are going to dynamically set tariff rates for every individual product so perfectly that both domestic production and a reliable tariff revenue stream will exist?
Color me skeptical.
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Science, Culture, & Humanities / MY: Pocket Spies
« Last post by Crafty_Dog on March 28, 2025, 09:41:48 AM »Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more
Pocket Spies
Mar 27
READ IN APP
27 March 2025
Panama City, Panama
Electronic security is increasingly on the Global Mind. Masako asked yesterday about phone security. There is none. Zero. Masako found my old dispatch POCKET SPIES published on November 17, 2011.
Below is POCKET SPIES, verbatim. Notice Texas and border reference.
—begin—
My Facebook has more than 48,000 readers. They come from just about any country imaginable, and many walks of life. A few days ago, I was browsing through the menus trying to learn more about Facebook, which amounts to a passive intelligence agency of sorts. This is especially true if you have Facebook (or other similar services) on your smartphone.
And so, with my iPhone4s using a Facebook app, I touched the tab called “Nearby.” An incredible amount of “actionable intelligence” scrolled on. One friend was at the Sheraton at the Pentagon. Another was at the Pentagon. I emailed to her and she confirmed. Another was at the VA Hospital in Long Beach. Ruby Tuesday. iHop. Starbucks Fort Polk. Times Square. Pacific Grill. Home sweet home. Octapharma Plasma. China Café. FBI Academy. Tahlequah Dialysis Unit. Columbus State University. AJ’s Pizza. Farelli’s Pizza. Palladium Theatre. Home. Crossroads Christian Church. 24 Hour Fitness – Mission Valley California. The Exchange Hotel.
And on and on. With my iPhone, I could track their smartphones in real time.
Some people were also typing entries (just got on the train) and they were being tracked. One young Thai woman was typing entries and finally posted she was home at her condo in Bangkok. At the same time, another was 12 time zones away at X-treme Rockclimbing Gym in Miami, Florida.
Touch one button and GoogleMaps instantly appears showing the precise location. Touch one more button and there is a choice: “Open in Maps,” “Get Directions,” “Cancel.”
I scrolled down the list. Numerous people said they were home. Their locators pinpointed their locations. I touched the buttons and saw their locations on Google Earth. And there was one Afghan friend. I could see exactly where he was in Kabul. He is an avowed enemy of the Taliban. They have threatened to kill him. I emailed at once saying to turn that thing off. I know where you are. If he did not email back very quickly, I was going to call. He emailed back, confirmed his location and turned it off.
It’s not enough that we are careful ourselves. If we are tooling around Afghanistan together, and only one of us has not turned off the location service, we are both trackable by anyone. No special gear or warrant is needed. If someone’s child has this option switched on, the whole family is trackable, not to mention that the child is easily trackable in real time everywhere he or she goes.
Enough said.