Here's Trump doing his thing, now dissuading Apple from building I-phones in India, after Apple moved factories from China to India. In response, India also added retaliatory tariffs on US after Trump crossed some of India's red-lines on Pak. It is no longer true that India did not retaliate, I have a feeling things are not going too well and it will be a while, before things settle down. The Indian response will be to move closer to Russia, which will further aggravate Trump. Years of work has gone down the drain.
https://x.com/i/status/1922939560243163523Here's a summary from Grok AI.
Critical AnalysisIndia’s rejection of Trump’s mediation claims is a significant setback for his administration, exposing the limits of his deal-making approach in a region where historical rivalries and domestic politics constrain flexibility. By publicly contradicting Trump, India has signaled it will not be pressured by trade threats or diplomatic grandstanding, which could stiffen its resolve in tariff talks. The US’s 25% steel tariff and proposed reciprocal tariffs already strain bilateral trade, and India’s retaliatory tariff proposal (WTO notification, May 12, 2025) indicates readiness to escalate if provoked.
Trump’s miscalculation—announcing the ceasefire without coordinating with India—has damaged trust, potentially slowing BTA negotiations. India’s offer of zero tariffs on select goods was a goodwill gesture, but the ceasefire dispute may lead New Delhi to demand stricter terms or delay concessions, especially on agriculture, where domestic pressures are high. The incident also risks long-term damage to US-India ties, as India may seek to diversify partnerships to reduce reliance on the US, particularly in defense and technology.
However, Trump retains some leverage. India’s large trade surplus with the US ($36 billion in 2024) and its ambition to boost bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 incentivize a deal. Trump’s promise of increased trade could still appeal to India if he recalibrates his approach to respect its sensitivities. Upcoming talks during Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal “
ConclusionIndia’s rejection of Trump’s mediation claims in the India-Pakistan ceasefire has embarrassed him diplomatically, strained US-India relations, and weakened his leverage in ongoing tariff negotiations. The public rebuff undermines Trump’s narrative of brokering a major peace deal, exposing exaggerations and prompting criticism of his diplomatic immaturity. In the context of tariff talks, India’s distrust may harden its negotiating stance, potentially delaying the BTA or escalating retaliatory tariffs, as seen in its WTO proposal. While Trump’s trade threats carry weight, India’s strategic autonomy and domestic pressures limit his influence, requiring a more nuanced approach to restore trust. The incident underscores the challenges Trump faces in balancing his deal-making instincts with the complexities of South Asian geopolitics and trade dynamics.
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