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The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction
undefined and Director, Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE
Rodger Baker
Director, Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, Stratfor
6 MIN READMay 30, 2024 | 16:34 GMT
The Geopolitics of Water
The Geopolitics of Water
(Getty Images; RANE)
Editor's Note: This article is the first installment in a RANE series on the geopolitical impacts of water stress. This series will be published periodically throughout the remainder of 2024.
The unequal distribution of natural resources often shapes geopolitical patterns. Throughout history, competition for resources has sparked both conflict and trade, creating opportunities for development and growth in some areas while disadvantaging others and influencing the pace and direction of technological advancements. Though rarely the direct cause of conflict, fresh water is one of the most important mineral resources, critical for agriculture, industry and domestic uses. Water stress, characterized by the narrowing gap between available water resources and the demand for water use, is a growing challenge driven by urbanization, agricultural practices, mining and industry, and climate change. Water stress contributes to social and political instability, food insecurity, and industrial, electricity and transportation disruptions. Over the next several months, this RANE series will look at water stress from several different perspectives to better understand how water contributes to geopolitical shifts and changes, and to assess where new risks and opportunities may emerge.
According to the 2024 United Nations World Water Development Report, agriculture remains the dominant draw on freshwater resources, amounting to nearly 70% of human use, followed by industrial uses (around 20%) and domestic use (around 10%). While this balance is generally accurate on a global scale, it often varies significantly at the local level. In high-income countries, industry accounts for nearly 40% of water withdrawal, while in low-middle and low-income countries, agriculture may account for nearly 90% of water usage. Thus, water stress and the more severe water scarcity have vastly different impacts in different regions of the world and even within individual countries.
While agriculture remains the largest single category of water consumption (even in high-income countries, accounting for 44% of usage), urbanization has played a significant role in expanding water usage, with domestic water use increasing by some 600% between 1960 and 2014, according to a report by the World Resources Institute. While in part, this should not be surprising (globally, urbanization rates rose from around 33% in 1950 to an estimated 56% in 2022), urbanization can see water use dramatically increase in a very narrow geographic range. This may trigger heightened competition between agricultural and urban uses, particularly for shared river resources. It may also lead to more severe water crises, as China saw in the mid-2010s with cities losing water, and more recently in the evolving crisis in South Africa. Reduced river flows can impact the availability of water for urban uses and electricity production, adding additional social and economic risks.
Seasonal changes and increasing extremes of weather often impact agricultural water availability. Traditional rainy seasons in some areas appear to be shifting, which can lead to greater draws of groundwater for irrigation or break patterns of traditional growing seasons. In India, for example, shifts in monsoon patterns are likely contributing to groundwater depletion, as the rains are changing location and intensity, and natural aquifers are not being recharged. With some 90% of Indian groundwater withdrawal already going toward agricultural production, the combined expansion of draw and reduction of recharge could presage a major water scarcity crisis — one that would also threaten India's basic food security. Changing rainfall patterns can also impact the movement of grains and other crops along inland river networks, requiring either intensified dredging or a shift to more expensive rail transport for critical food commodities.
Industrial water use includes both electricity production (steam generation or cooling, or water use in mining and oil extraction) as well as in localized water-intensive industries themselves. Hydroelectric power production, while not always included in industrial water use, also plays a significant role in the impact of water stress on countries and regions. In China and Latin America, reduced river flows have caused electricity shortages, undermining all aspects of local economies. Similar concerns abound regarding the Colorado River in the U.S. Southwest, threatening electricity production, urban use and agriculture. More direct industrial implications have been seen in recent years, from water availability for hydraulic fracturing in the oil and gas industry to the impacts of localized droughts on Taiwanese semiconductor fabrication plants. Frequently, water stress in urban areas forces governments to choose between domestic and industrial uses, each with its own economic, social and political implications.
Although water availability is rarely the primary trigger of full interstate conflict, increased water stress does play a significant secondary role in geopolitical competition and tension. Localized water disputes can escalate to draw in state security forces or lead to isolated conflicts and property and infrastructure damage. Water stress can encourage large-scale migrations, often from rural to urban areas, and between developing and developed nations, contributing both to political and social stresses and to potential future urban water security issues. Water infrastructure, including supplies and treatment, has come under cyberthreat from state and non-state actors, raising concerns about overall infrastructure security and questions of equivalent responses when cyber action has physical consequences.
Concern over agriculture irrigation, riverine food resources and overall river flow for transport make new dam construction a frequent source of stress between nations, most recently in northeast Africa and along southeast Asia's Mekong River. Cambodia's plans to build a new canal to bypass the mouth of the Mekong River have raised concerns in Hanoi about river flow and security threats, while it may also reduce Vietnam's economic influence over its smaller neighbor. Reduced rainfall has slowed operations in the Panama Canal, as a freshwater lake is a critical supply of water for the locks, impacting overall global shipping patterns and prices. With further shifts in rainfall patterns expected due to changing global climate patterns, the scope and frequency of water-induced crises are likely to increase over the coming years.
Throughout this series, we will look at the intersection of water availability through the lens of political, social and economic factors, assess how water stress may impact intra- and inter-state competition, look at industry and technology as both significant consumers of water and potential mitigators of water stress, explore the relationship between water and energy production and availability, and consider food and human security in the face of changing patterns of water availability. As with any natural resource, water presents a complex picture where not merely the relative availability but the economic and social context amplifies the significance of stress.
