Iran

[Crafty_Dog]

Formidable summary there!

[Body-by-Guinness]

Good thing he’s reestablished Obama’s Iranian appeasement strategy, if it can be called that. But hey, how could nuclear armed Shiites possibly harm the US or its interests?

Biden should know by now why his message to Iran isn't getting through
The Hill News / by Jonathan Sweet and Mark Toth / February 08, 2024 at 07:02AM

A “tiered approach” is how National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby described the U.S. response to the Jan. 28 attack against Tower 22 in Jordan. That attack, carried out by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, killed three American soldiers and wounded another 40. 

President Joe Biden's goal is to “degrade" the group's ability to attack American troops and facilities, while sending a “strong signal to their backers,” namely Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder, the initial tier of the air strikes on Feb. 2 included “more than 85 targets that Iran's IRGC and affiliated militias have used to attack U.S. forces. The facilities struck included command-and-control operation centers, intelligence centers, rockets, missiles, unmanned aerial vehicle storage and logistics and munition supply chain facilities.” The general added that 80 of the 85 targets were “destroyed or functionally damaged.” 

Casualty account figures vary. According to the Middle East Institute, “of the 34 confirmed fatalities, all were locals, except four Afghan members of Liwa Fatemiyoun (an Afghan Shi’a force founded and supported by Tehran). In a separate report, the head of Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdurrahman, said “23 people were killed in the Syria strikes, all rank-and-file fighters.”

Contrary to Ryder’s announcement, Hussein al-Mosawi, spokesperson for Harakat al-Nujaba, one of the main Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, said the targeted sites in Iraq were mainly “devoid of fighters and military personnel at the time of the attack.”

Of note, not one of the 85 targets was in Iran, and not one member of the IRGC was a casualty. Conversely, in a single airstrike hours before the U.S. response, Israel killed IRGC military advisor Saeid Ali Dadi in south Damascus — their third airstrike against IRGC targets in Syria since Christmas. 

Israel has repeatedly made clear it “will not allow Iran to expand its presence.” Tuesday evening, it backed that up by striking “Shuyrat airbase and several locations on the outskirts of Homs, Syria,” killing two Hezbollah fighters. No forewarnings, just steel on target, removing the threat from the battlefield.

Groundhog Day was another day of empty messaging for the Biden administration. And the message, having been received, was promptly ignored as Iranian proxies launched at least three more suicide drone attacks against U.S. bases. The drones were supposedly intercepted.

That does not include the Houthi response to joint U.S.-United Kingdom strikes in Yemen. Houthi rebels continue to fire anti-ship ballistic missiles at commercial shipping and U.S. Navy ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and recently employed subsurface vessels. Houthi rebels have used subsurface vessels successfully against the Saudi Navy in their war against the Saudis.

A fourth attack occurred on Monday that resulted in six U.S.-backed fighters from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) being killed in a drone strike on the U.S. base at al-Omar oilfield in Syria’s eastern Deir ez-Zor province. Eighteen were wounded in the attack. While no American casualties were taken, it was an American base.

The common denominator in all cases is Iran.

So the only message Iran seems to be getting loud and clear from the airstrikes conducted last Friday is that the White House is reluctant to strike targets inside Iran. Their proxies? Yes, but not Iran directly. Therefore, Iran’s response was to launch still more attacks through its proxies. Although Iran respects the capabilities of the U.S. military, it does not fear Biden, the man who would be responsible for giving the order to escalate.

When Biden and his spokespersons say they “do not want a war with Iran,” or they “do not want to widen the war in the Middle East,” Tehran believes them. That is the only message Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei hears — everything else is noise. For Iran, it is part of the cost of doing business to have the U.S. target its proxies in northern Iraq and southeastern Syria. They are simply tools in Iran's toolbox, to be discarded when their usefulness is complete.

What seemingly is not at risk are the instruments of war that Iran maintains within its own borders — IRGC facilities and leadership, the Shahed-136 UAV production facility in Esfahan, nuclear facilities weaponizing uranium, and oil production facilities funding their proxies. And even some senior leadership of these proxy groups does not make the target list.

Conspicuously missing from the list of targets are Abu Fadak Al-Mohammedawi, chief of staff of Iraq’s Shiite-led Popular Mobilization Forces (Iraq’s equivalent of the IRGC) who likely ordered the attack on Tower 22, and Abdul Malik al-Houthi in Yemen.

It was not until Wednesday night that the U.S. targeted Abu Baqir al-Saadi and Arkan Al-Alawi in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad. They were leaders within Kataib Hezbollah and were likely involved in the decision to strike Tower 22 on Jan. 28.

Biden and his National Security team need to get out of the messaging business with Iran. They are now 0 for 3 at effective messaging. The next tier of the “multiple actions” described by Kirby must hit closer to home for the message to resonate in Tehran. Washington must quit swatting at flies and start hitting nails on their heads. General Michael E. Kurilla and his team at U.S. Central Command are the hammer. The other instruments of national power can be applied post-strike to reinforce the message.

Iran is already preparing for the next tier. Biden needs to change his calculus. Iran likely believes he lacks the political will to take them on directly during a president election campaign. It is time for the president to prove them wrong before the next U.S. soldier is killed or wounded.

Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy.

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4454113-biden-should-know-by-now-why-his-message-to-iran-isnt-getting-through/

[DougMacG]

The whole reach out to Iran initiative never made any sense.  Pay them ransom and they will love and respect us?  Listen to them, the leaders, they hate us.  What part of "Death to America" all these years does our leadership not understand?

Toward the end of the Bush administration some of us wondered if Cheney would ever talk the President into taking out Iran's nuclear capability.  Didn't happen, and then we had the Obama American Apology Tour where we took the blame instead of them, and sent them planeloads of cash.  'We were only sending their money back to them', they said.  True only if you think the assets were wrongfully frozen.

What part of "world's number one state sponsor of terror" do they not understand about Iran?  How many of the American deaths in Iraq were Iranian-made IEDs? 

A proxy in terror is what a shell company is in money laundering.  Sure, shut it down but don't think you've addressed the problem. 

One interesting part of both Reagan and Trump was that the opposition, including media, made them out to be so trigger happy that adversaries feared them, cf. Kim Jung Un climbed back in his hole, Putin waited for a Democrat administration for his next attack.

I just don't get what Dem leadership or Dem voters are thinking.  The regime of Iran is a group you can work with?  Israel isn't?  Having no border security won't attract terrorists, espionage, worse?  We don't need fossil fuels?  Taxes and endless regulations don't harm regular people?  Chopping off genitalia is affirmation?  Men entering women's sports won't harm it?  What are you people thinking?  (Sorry about topic drift but the missing logic is the common thread.)

We're not waiting for another fly swat of 'retaliation' to appease the critics, that Biden advisers and controllers apparently can't agree on.  We're waiting for deterrence, a disproportional response that makes them regret they ever did it and makes them not want to try it again.  The kind of response that these people and the UN would criticize if Israel did it, like take down the regime.  Whatever the response was going to be, it should have been ready before each of these attacks.  These weren't surprises.  These weren't black swan events.  They were as predictable as the sun coming up, especially after they saw the bungling of Afghan retreat and everything else happening in Washington, Ukraine etc.

[ccp]

If I hear MSM reiterate one more time "we don't want war with Iran"

 

PS we are at war.

[Crafty_Dog]

I would like to pat myself on the back for being quite emphatic at the time here that Obama-Biden pulling our main force out of Iraq as they did was a huge historic error.  First ISIS, now this. 

[Crafty_Dog]

https://amgreatness.com/2024/02/09/could-joe-biden-order-a-u-s-attack-on-iran/D

Off the top of my head I would say:

A) real good idea as a practical matter, (especially with this lurking in the very near future https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20384/global-order-nuclear-iran ) and

B) YES as a C'l matter.

[ccp]

when I click on top link this is what I see:

D.C. Jury Finds Michael Sussmann Not Guilty of Making a False Statement to the FBI

[Crafty_Dog]

I put the title of the desired article in Qwant and nothing came up, weird.   Could the piece have been pulled?

[ccp]

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rasmussen-reports-iran-poll/2024/02/19/id/1154157/

[ccp]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/02/isis_renews_calls_for_terror.html

[Crafty_Dog]

GPF

Iran and Hungary signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement during Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s visit to Tehran. He met with his Iranian counterpart and signed a roadmap for cooperation in the agricultural sector. The ministers also exchanged views on regional and international issues.

[Crafty_Dog]

Bombing Iran
Nobody should welcome the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. But bombing the place is not the answer
Feb 25th 2012 | from the print edition

FOR years Iran has practised denial and deception; it has blustered and played for time. All the while, it has kept an eye on the day when it might be able to build a nuclear weapon. The world has negotiated with Iran; it has balanced the pain of economic sanctions with the promise of reward if Iran unambiguously forsakes the bomb. All the while, outside powers have been able to count on the last resort of a military assault.

Today this stand-off looks as if it is about to fail. Iran has continued enriching uranium. It is acquiring the technology it needs for a weapon. Deep underground, at Fordow, near the holy city of Qom, it is fitting out a uranium-enrichment plant that many say is invulnerable to aerial attack. Iran does not yet seem to have chosen actually to procure a nuclear arsenal, but that moment could come soon. Some analysts, especially in Israel, judge that the scope for using force is running out. When it does, nothing will stand between Iran and a bomb.

The air is thick with the prophecy of war. Leon Panetta, America’s defence secretary, has spoken of Israel attacking as early as April. Others foresee an Israeli strike designed to drag in Barack Obama in the run-up to America’s presidential vote, when he will have most to lose from seeming weak.

A decision to go to war should be based not on one man’s electoral prospects, but on the argument that war is warranted and likely to succeed. Iran’s intentions are malign and the consequences of its having a weapon would be grave. Faced by such a regime you should never permanently forswear war. However, the case for war’s success is hard to make. If Iran is intent on getting a bomb, an attack would delay but not stop it. Indeed, using Western bombs as a tool to prevent nuclear proliferation risks making Iran only more determined to build a weapon—and more dangerous when it gets one.

A shadow over the Middle East

Make no mistake, an Iran armed with the bomb would pose a deep threat. The country is insecure, ideological and meddles in its neighbours’ affairs. Both Iran and its proxies—including Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza—might act even more brazenly than they do now. The danger is keenly felt by Israel, surrounded by threats and especially vulnerable to a nuclear bomb because it is such a small land. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, recently called the “Zionist regime” a “cancerous tumour that must be cut out”. Jews, of all people, cannot just dismiss that as so much rhetoric.

Even if Iran were to gain a weapon only for its own protection, others in the region might then feel they need weapons too. Saudi Arabia has said it will arm—and Pakistan is thought ready to supply a bomb in exchange for earlier Saudi backing of its own programme. Turkey and Egypt, the other regional powers, might conclude they have to join the nuclear club. Elsewhere, countries such as Brazil might see nuclear arms as vital to regional dominance, or fear that their neighbours will.

Some experts argue that nuclear-armed states tend to behave responsibly. But imagine a Middle East with five nuclear powers riven by rivalry and sectarian feuds. Each would have its fingers permanently twitching over the button, in the belief that the one that pressed first would be left standing. Iran’s regime gains legitimacy by demonising foreign powers. The cold war seems stable by comparison with a nuclear Middle East—and yet America and the Soviet Union were sometimes scarily close to Armageddon.

No wonder some people want a pre-emptive strike. But military action is not the solution to a nuclear Iran. It could retaliate, including with rocket attacks on Israel from its client groups in Lebanon and Gaza. Terror cells around the world might strike Jewish and American targets. It might threaten Arab oil infrastructure, in an attempt to use oil prices to wreck the world economy. Although some Arab leaders back a strike, most Muslims are unlikely to feel that way, further alienating the West from the Arab spring. Such costs of an attack are easy to overstate, but even supposing they were high they might be worth paying if a strike looked like working. It does not.
Striking Iran would be much harder than Israel’s successful solo missions against the weapons programmes of Iraq, in 1981, and Syria, in 2007. If an attack were easy, Israel would have gone in alone long ago, when the Iranian programme was more vulnerable. But Iran’s sites are spread out and some of them, hardened against strikes, demand repeated hits. America has more military options than Israel, so it would prefer to wait. That is one reason why it is seeking to hold Israel back. The other is that, for either air force, predictions of the damage from an attack span a huge range. At worst an Israeli mission might fail altogether, at best an American one could, it is said, set back the programme a decade (see article).

But uncertainty would reign. Iran is a vast, populous and sophisticated country with a nuclear programme that began under the shah. It may have secret sites that escape unscathed. Even if all its sites are hit, Iran’s nuclear know-how cannot be bombed out of existence. Nor can its network of suppliers at home and abroad. It has stocks of uranium in various stages of enrichment; an unknown amount would survive an attack, while the rest contaminated an unforeseeable area. Iran would probably withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which its uranium is watched by the International Atomic Energy Agency. At that point its entire programme would go underground—literally and figuratively. If Iran decided it needed a bomb, it would then be able to pursue one with utmost haste and in greater secrecy. Saudi Arabia and the others might conclude that they, too, needed to act pre-emptively to gain their own deterrents.

Perhaps America could bomb Iran every few years. But how would it know when and where to strike? And how would it justify a failing policy to the world? Perhaps, if limited bombing is not enough, America should be aiming for an all-out aerial war, or even regime change. Yet a decade in Iraq and Afghanistan has demonstrated where that leads. An aerial war could dramatically raise the threat of retaliation. Regime change might produce a government that the West could do business with. But the nuclear programme has broad support in Iran. The idea that a bomb is the only defence against an implacable American enemy might become stronger than ever.

Get real

That does not mean the world should just let Iran get the bomb. The government will soon be starved of revenues, because of an oil embargo. Sanctions are biting, the financial system is increasingly isolated and the currency has plunged in value. Proponents of an attack argue that military humiliation would finish the regime off. But it is as likely to rally Iranians around their leaders. Meanwhile, political change is sweeping across the Middle East. The regime in Tehran is divided and it has lost the faith of its people. Eventually, popular resistance will spring up as it did in 2009. A new regime brought about by the Iranians themselves is more likely to renounce the bomb than one that has just witnessed an American assault.

Is there a danger that Iran will get a nuclear weapon before that happens? Yes, but bombing might only increase the risk. Can you stop Iran from getting a bomb if it is determined to have one? Not indefinitely, and bombing it might make it all the more desperate. Short of occupation, the world cannot eliminate Iran’s capacity to gain the bomb. It can only change its will to possess one. Just now that is more likely to come about through sanctions and diplomacy than war.****

[ccp]

https://spectator.org/dea-halts-weapons-grade-plutonium-en-route-to-iran/

 

I thought Robert Mitchum kicked their ass back in '74 :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Yakuza

[Crafty_Dog]

Iranian satellite. Relatedly, Russia launched an Iranian-made satellite into orbit on Thursday. According to Iranian media, the satellite will be used for imaging, collecting domestic remote sensing data and testing of satellite technology.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/obama-deal-to-give-iran-zero-breakout-time-in-13-years/?fbclid=IwAR2Qz1B1nYxrc9Opc-MmMq6f51psIk1wqd7xS1V1vG2yybH0yPLOlT4vpms

[ccp]

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/03/14/biden-rewards-irans-murder-of-3-us-troops-with-a-cool-10-billion-n4927293

Unless I am missing something (a good reason to do this not reported in the story) the idiocy of this speaks for itself.

[DougMacG]

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/03/14/biden-rewards-irans-murder-of-3-us-troops-with-a-cool-10-billion-n4927293

Unless I am missing something (a good reason to do this not reported in the story) the idiocy of this speaks for itself.

The idiocy of this speaks for itself.

For some reason (most) voters of the Left don't see the problem.  Being tough on Iran should be a 90-10 issue or 100-0.

Hard to generalize with voter groups but my moderate Dem Jewish friends seem fed up with Biden, though (it appears) they will never come to Trump or to being Republican.  And then he is losing Muslim support as well for not going far enough in that direction.

I've been puzzled for years how Jewish Americans and Muslim Americans find a home in the same party.  It seems the massacre of Oct 7 has brought this to a head.  (Also strange that gay Americans and Muslim Americans find home in the same political party.  Am I missing something - or are they?)

No one seems to dispute Iran is the world's number one state sponsor of terror, even when Obama was sending them planeloads of cash.  More money means more sponsoring of terror, and we send them more money.  Even if it is 'their' money, assets were frozen for a reason.

Now we know they are sponsors of Oct 7 massacre and sponsors of the war Yemen is launching against commerce.  And we send them more money?

It is pure, self destructive idiocy.  I'm shocked our leaders come up with these policies.  I'm even more shocked and offended that their followers will follow them, apparently anywhere no matter how idiotic or destructive.

[ccp]

https://www.newsweek.com/why-jimmy-carter-owes-iranian-people-apology-opinion-1813190

[DougMacG]

https://www.newsweek.com/why-jimmy-carter-owes-iranian-people-apology-opinion-1813190

Historians will always debate one question about Jimmy Carter, was his domestic or foreign policy dumber?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/05/07/jimmy-carter-gets-it-wrong-on-venezuela-again/

[ccp]

" Historians will always debate one question about Jimmy Carter, was his domestic or foreign policy dumber?"

if only they would do the same for Brock/and his puppet

[Crafty_Dog]

April 10, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF

Iran’s Strategic Patience Dilemma
Israel’s recent strike on an Iranian consulate put Tehran in a difficult spot.
By: Hilal Khashan
Iran faces a dilemma in the wake of the Israeli attack last week on its consulate in Damascus, which killed seven senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It’s under pressure at home to respond to the strike but is concerned about the possibility of igniting a broader conflict. The escalation comes amid repeated direct attacks on Iranian targets that could weaken its regional power. Over the past few months, Israel has been stepping up attacks on Iranian assets, specifically in Syria. Since October, the rules of engagement between Israel and Iran’s so-called axis of resistance have tilted in Israel’s favor. Israel’s military does not believe that Iran will launch a direct military strike in retaliation for the Damascus attack, but it has taken exceptional precautions by calling up air force reservists and canceling military leaves. The assumption is that Iran will bide its time and pursue a policy of “strategic patience.”

Patience as Policy

In 2015, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama was the first to articulate a policy of strategic patience. Obama stressed that the United States’ unique set of challenges required perseverance and used this policy to pursue goals related to democracy, human rights, energy security, climate and nuclear security.

The U.S. applied this strategy in dealing with North Korea by maintaining political dialogue with Pyongyang while keeping open the option of military action. China has also used it with Taiwan, as Beijing awaits the right time to reunite the island with the mainland. In both cases, the United States and China can impose their conditions on their opponents, even though they prefer not to antagonize them. By definition, this concept can be used only by countries that enjoy a surplus of military power over their opponents and have other options but prefer to exhaust diplomatic means before resorting to decisive military force.

Iran, however, cannot prevail over the United States and Israel. It instead uses its regional agents to distract its opponents, pushing them to recognize it as a legitimate partner in managing the region’s affairs while falsely asserting that they are independent in making their decisions.

Iran does not see either country as an eternal enemy, even though Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s revolution in 1979 designated the United States as the Great Satan and Israel as the absolute evil. These labels are not necessarily historical inevitabilities but rather convenient slogans that can be waived under opportune situations. After the nuclear agreement in 2015, Iranian authorities removed many of the revolutionary slogans that described the U.S. as the Great Satan from the walls of Iranian cities.

Iran began to use the concept of strategic patience after the U.S. assassinated Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020. Since then, Tehran has opted for a subtle conflict with the United States rather than direct confrontation. It has not taken actions that could seriously harm U.S. interests; it even warned the Trump administration before striking American targets in Iraq to avenge Soleimani’s killing. Over the past four years, it has also tried to strike back at the United States using Iraqi militias.

Resisting Pressure to Retaliate

However, recent developments in the Middle East indicate that Tehran actually suffers from strategic deadlock. Iran once again faces the problem of wanting to respond to deter Israel from launching more attacks while also being careful to avoid an all-out war. Tehran believes it must respond to show its readiness for confrontation but in a calculated manner without causing an escalation or inflicting casualties. Its hesitation to retaliate is an indication that the Islamic Revolution is nothing but a paper tiger.

Tehran has repeatedly promised a response. The IRGC issued a statement reassuring the Iranian people that it will make Israel regret its actions in Damascus. Iran’s joint chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, said in a speech during the funeral of senior Quds Force commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was killed in the strike, that Israel’s demise is near. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said recently that an Iranian response is inevitable – though he did not specify whether it would come from inside Iran or from its Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. And Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened Israel with defeat.

These statements, however, are mere chest-thumping. Iran does not want its proxies in the Middle East to perceive it as weak because it would erode the impression it’s trying to build of itself as a strong and feared country. Still, Iranian media and some officials have called for restraint, arguing that the bombing of the consulate might be a trap meant to stir up anger within Iran and threaten its internal stability. The Iranian press is preparing citizens to accept that retaliatory military strikes are futile.

Despite Tehran’s repeated threats of revenge, its long-term strategy is based on preserving its achievements over the past decades and avoiding any knee-jerk reactions. It aspires to reach a deal with the United States in which the latter acknowledges it as a leading regional power. This objective lies at the center of its dispute not only with the United States but also with Israel, which refuses to recognize Iran as a country with equal regional influence.

Pro-Iranian analysts have sought to justify the delay in responding to the Israeli strike by arguing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should not be able to remain in power under the pretext that his country is at war. They believe Iran must maintain its patience to defeat its enemies’ plans. Iranian leaders will thus adopt a strategic patience policy in dealing with this incident as they have done on many occasions since the Iranian Revolution. They will refrain from escalating regional tensions that might lead to direct conflict with Israel or the United States. However, they face the challenge of continuing Iran’s regional meddling, especially with the increasing strategic costs and risks.

Avoidance of War

For 30 years, Iran has tried to create a deterrent aura around itself. Missile parades, drills and animated videos are meant to publicly display Iran’s strength and permanent combat readiness, but the reality on the ground is entirely different. Avoidance of confrontation and eschewal of confidence-building measures with Israel are constants in Iranian foreign policy.

Given the norms that govern relations between countries, Iran must respond to the Israeli strike, but it is careful to avoid inviting Israel’s military wrath. Tehran even informed its Shiite proxies, just as it did with Hamas, that it would not participate directly in the fighting against Israel. It will arm and finance them but not to the extent of triggering a regional war requiring Iran’s involvement.

For Israel, Iran’s subversive agenda is too apparent to hide, let alone tolerate. The building that Israel bombed in Damascus was not a consulate in the internationally recognized sense but rather a center for military planning. Why, after all, would senior IRGC officers be working out of a diplomatic facility? Iran often uses its diplomatic missions to spread its influence worldwide, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. For example, it used its cultural centers to spread the Shiite doctrine, which led to the closure of some of them in several countries. But Israel’s destruction of the Iranian consulate in Damascus is a pivotal event because it puts Tehran in a difficult position, indicating that the rules of engagement between the two countries have changed in Israel’s favor.

Deep in their collective consciousness, Iranians believe that no one can defeat them. The reason has nothing to do with military balance. The Iranian people are patient and persevering. However, the past two centuries did not go well for Iranians as they suffered frequent defeats by Russia and Britain. Modern warfare is about technological innovation, not just patience. The Israelis highlighted their technological superiority at the beginning of the recent confrontations, which differ radically from previous Arab-Israeli wars. Israeli operations have depended more on high-tech equipment and weapons than on conventional warfare. Intensive shelling and bombardments of border villages have given way to targeted attacks.

The Israelis say they can target warehouses, drone operating rooms and missile launching pads with absolute ease. Nasrallah even had to ask his fighters to refrain from using cell phones and to block and turn off surveillance cameras from the internet. However, these actions didn’t stop Israeli drones from successfully targeting Hezbollah commanders. It’s no wonder that Iran is adhering to a policy of strategic patience.

[ccp]

just wondering if Iran will give us the excuse to bomb and hopefully destroy their nucs sites once and for all.

if possible.

I certainly am not one to understand all the risks and rewards but it seems like the prudent thing to do.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://nypost.com/2024/04/15/opinion/how-biden-helps-iran-pay-for-its-terror-by-refusing-to-enforce-current-sanctions/?fbclid=IwAR3kmRe1swcOPFQmb9DiBpooW7opF494RnSB9B331h6MUKc8ReHhTUjti7c

[ccp]

https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0

of course since this is AP, the last part of the article implies this is so due to Trump pulling out of the Iran "deal".

And Iran has has built this nuc site for *peaceful purposes* - 300 ft underground.

we Let it get this far ......

In the article it is suggested it cannot be removed from the air.
Will need ground assault then and likely both.

Iran leadership represents the "Crazy King" scenario that Jacobson tells us that Richard Garwin feared is the joker card that could break the deterrence strategy leading to nuc winter.

By the way Richard Garwin who is still alive who as a 23 yo who put into practical application Edward Teller's physics theories.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Garwin

[DougMacG]

"this is so due to Trump pulling out of the Iran "deal". "


  - The deal that "paved the path", and paid for it. The deal that made the US a state sponsor of terrorism.  The deal that paid for Oct 7 2023. 

Who are these people that think the 'Iran deal', mega cash for vague, unkept promises, was a good deal?

[Body-by-Guinness]

Astounding the Biden admin keeps playing pattycake w/ Iran, given their behavior.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/iran-america-october-massacre

[Body-by-Guinness]

Someone I follow posted this re the recent crash death of Iran's president:

"William of Ockham would like you to know that flying a helicopter in pea soup fog in the mountains is all you need for a crash. Mossad didn't bag Kobe Bryant and they didn't bag Raisi, either. Get-There-itis kills more people than any other factor in general aviation."

BBG again; I'd add Steve Ray Vaughn to that list, who very tragically died in a fog shrouded helicopter crash in the flatland of IL into what would amount to less than a bunny hill most places at a downhill ski place in Northern Illinois called "Wilmot Mountain." I wouldn't bet the mortgage that Israel had no role, but Ockham's Razor perhaps ought to be applied when evaluating the nefarious claims.

[DougMacG]

What kind of condolence do you send to a country that just lost a murderous, oppressive, war starting tyrant?

https://nypost.com/2024/05/20/us-news/state-department-nato-un-criticized-for-offering-condolences-to-iran-over-dead-butcher-of-tehran/

[Crafty_Dog]

Operation Appeasement rolls on , , ,

[Crafty_Dog]

(3) FIRM TELLS COURT DOJ COVERED UP U.S. BANK IRAN SANCTION VIOLATIONS: Brutus Trading LLC told the Federal District Court for the Southern District of New York that the Department of Justice (DOJ) “perpetrated a colossal fraud” by falsely denying Brutus turned over “damning evidence” to the DOJ that Standard Chartered Bank violated Iran sanctions by facilitating financial transactions.
Standard Chartered Bank and the DOJ entered into deferred prosecution agreements in 2012 and 2019 over allegations of violating sanctions against Iran.

Why It Matters: The timeline of deferred prosecution agreements line up roughly with the Obama administration and incoming Biden administration, which focused on the Iran nuclear deal as a major foreign policy victory. The Obama, and now Biden, focus on maintaining the Iran nuclear deal is a likely explanation for little public action on what appears to be an infiltration of the government by the Iran Experts Group and Iran envoy Robert Malley. This is also a possible explanation for the DOJ’s deferred prosecution agreements with Standard Chartered Bank over sanctions violations that facilitated billions of dollars in transactions. – R.C.

[Crafty_Dog]

Space initiative. Iran is building the Middle East's largest space base at its Chabahar port, the country’s communications minister said. The facility is already 56 percent completed, according to the minister. Tehran reportedly plans to conduct the first space launch from the base in 2024.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20745/iran-hitler-nuclear-bombs

[Body-by-Guinness]

They be playing the US Gaza protestors:

STATEMENT FROM DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AVRIL HAINES ON RECENT IRANIAN INFLUENCE EFFORTS

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 17-24
July 9, 2024

 

Statement from Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines on
Recent Iranian Influence Efforts

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines today released the following statement:

“The Intelligence Community recognizes the importance of informing the public of foreign efforts to influence our democratic processes and, consequently, leading into the Presidential and congressional elections this year, we are launching today the first of what will be regular updates regarding such threats.

Our updates can be expected to cover a range of foreign malign activities and election security threats, as you will see in today’s update. In particular, I would like to take this opportunity to draw your attention to concerning Iranian activity.

As I noted in testimony to the Congress in May, Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive in their foreign influence efforts, seeking to stoke discord and undermine confidence in our democratic institutions, as we have seen them do in the past, including in prior election cycles. They continue to adapt their cyber and influence activities, using social media platforms and issuing threats. It is likely they will continue to rely on their intelligence services in these efforts, as well as Iran-based online influencers, to promote their narratives.

In recent weeks, Iranian government actors have sought to opportunistically take advantage of ongoing protests regarding the war in Gaza, using a playbook we’ve seen other actors use over the years. We have observed actors tied to Iran’s government posing as activists online, seeking to encourage protests, and even providing financial support to protesters.

I want to be clear that I know Americans who participate in protests are, in good faith, expressing their views on the conflict in Gaza – this intelligence does not indicate otherwise. Moreover, the freedom to express diverse views, when done peacefully, is essential to our democracy, but it is also important to warn of foreign actors who seek to exploit our debate for their own purposes.

Furthermore, Americans who are being targeted by this Iranian campaign may not be aware that they are interacting with or receiving support from a foreign government. We urge all Americans to remain vigilant as they engage online with accounts and actors they do not personally know.”

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2024/3842-statement-from-director-of-national-intelligence-avril-haines-on-recent-iranian-influence-efforts

[Crafty_Dog]

July 11, 2024
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Why Iran’s Establishment Let a Reformist Become President
It has a calculated reason for allowing a moderate candidate to win election.
By: Kamran Bokhari

For the first time in nearly a generation, Iran has elected a reformist who is not a cleric as president. But Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory doesn’t change the fact that the country’s political establishment is dominated by ultraconservatives, and that it was they who allowed him to run in the first place.

The Guardian Council, which vets candidates based on ideological suitability, has since 2004 made sure to keep reformists out of the presidency and the parliament. In recent years, in fact, it has sidelined more moderate conservatives in favor of fringe ideologues. The establishment knows that in a competitive race, the public would cast their ballots for the least ideological candidate. It’s good at bending elections to its will, and it remembers all too well when reformists 20 years ago controlled both the executive and legislative branches of government as well as the municipalities. So, why let Pezeshkian run at all?

Other than miscalculation – which seems highly unlikely – the only explanation is that the powers that be – the supreme leader, his closest clerical associates and commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular armed forces – wanted a moderate candidate to win. It wouldn’t have been the first time: In 2013, former pragmatic conservative national security chief Hassan Rouhani won the presidency after eight years in office for his hawkish predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The important difference here is that Pezeshkian is further to the left of Rouhani, and that his ascension comes amid a looming power transition. The supreme leader is 85 years old, and there’s a good chance he will either die or be incapacitated during Pezeshkian’s term. Iranian law dictates that under either scenario, a leadership council consisting of the president, the head of the judiciary and a jurist from the Guardian Council selected by the Expediency Council will discharge the duties of the supreme leader until the Assembly of Experts elects a successor.

The establishment understands that public dissatisfaction is at an all-time high, and as a product of revolution itself, it is extremely wary of potential counterrevolutions. The hybrid nature of the Iranian political system – a Shiite Islamist theocracy woven into Western republicanism – has allowed the establishment to maintain enough support to forestall any threats to its preservation. Voter turnout has been essential in that regard. However, there has been a major slump in turnout lately. In 2021, when Pezeshkian’s hawkish predecessor Ebrahim Raisi won the presidency, official voter turnout reached a historic low at 49 percent. (Notably, he owes much of his victory to the electioneering efforts of the Guardian Council.) Four months ago during the parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, turnout was around 25 percent. Allowing a moderate to run was a near-surefire way to gin up voter participation and thus allay at least some public concern.

Pezeshkian’s victory is a consequence of that decision – but it isn’t an unintended one. A former health minister and lawmaker, he is a regime insider who will work within the constraints of a system dominated by officers and clerics. He has gone out of his way to present himself as both a reformer channeling popular discontent and a principalist (the preferred designation of the conservatives) devoted to the ideological foundations of the regime. No doubt he has also learned from the mistakes of his ideological forebears such as former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami and prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Meanwhile, many ultraconservative factions have to be feeling threatened by the sudden rise of a reformist to the presidency. For them, the most perturbing issue is the timing: They’ve worked feverishly to see one of their own succeed the supreme leader and prevent a pragmatist from taking over. Pezeshkian’s ascension is thus an intensification of the power struggles between pragmatists and ideologues. And as they intensify, it tips the balance of power from the clergy to the military.

These developments come at a time of increasingly aggressive Iranian foreign policy in the Middle East. Through its various proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran is in the process of enhancing its power projection capabilities in the region. The resulting strategic situation has increased the risk of a greater collision with Israel, which the regime needs to manage while it consolidates its regional position. It also needs to reach an understanding with the United States on the nuclear issue to secure badly needed sanctions relief and thus balance its foreign and domestic policy commitments. Having a government of pragmatists instead of ideologues will be helpful in that regard.

The United States has also indirectly influenced Tehran’s acquiescence to Pezeshkian. There may well be a new presidential administration in Washington soon, and if Donald Trump wins, Iran will need capable leadership to steer the country through what could be some tough dealings.

Ultimately, Iran does not have a solution to its problem of perpetually oscillating between governments led by ideologues and pragmatists. This is woven into the country’s fabric; its stakeholders both fear and need pragmatists. For now, Iran hopes it can use a Pezeshkian administration to achieve its goals without diluting the ideological essence of the regime. But given the unprecedented nature of upcoming changes in the offing and the fluidity of its geopolitical environment, Iran is unlikely to achieve both

[Crafty_Dog]

Where’s the Report to Congress on Iran’s Nuclear Program?
The White House has missed legal deadlines for more than a year.
By The Editorial Board
Updated July 10, 2024 6:46 pm ET



President Biden says Donald Trump is a lawbreaker, but his Administration is hardly any better. A case in point is its failure to file a report to Congress required by law on the status of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

Sen. Lindsey Graham helped to write Public Law 117-263, Section 5593 of the Iran Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022. It requires the Administration to send Congress an assessment every six months about Iran’s progress on uranium enrichment and other nuclear weapons development.

Mr. Graham has been asking the White House for weeks about the report, and he’s finally lost patience. In a letter Wednesday to Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, the Senator said the Administration is “in violation of the law” for “missing two Section 5593 assessment deadlines over the past year and failing to submit Section 7413 assessments” when Iran reaches a major enrichment threshold.

He said he’ll put a hold on DNI nominations, and he’ll work with colleagues to condition funding for DNI headquarters, until the reports are sent to Capitol Hill.

There’s good reason to be worried. The board of the International Atomic Energy Agency recently censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the United Nations nuclear watchdog and escalating its uranium enrichment. Mr. Graham’s letter cites the agency as saying Iran has increased its stockpile of enriched fuel up to 60% purity to 313.3 pounds as of May this year.

As Mr. Graham’s letter points out, this is only “a small technical step away from weapons grade 90% purity” and that much closer to being able to stage a bomb breakout. Israeli officials are expressing their growing alarm in private conversations with U.S. officials. They’re concerned enough that talk of some military operation, long dormant, is back on the table.

Iran’s progress may be a reason for the failure of Ms. Haines’s office to provide the information to Congress. If it tells the truth about the program, members of both parties would increase the political pressure to do something. Yet the White House has been striving mightily not to say or do anything regarding Iran that could lead to more tension before the November election.

News reports have said the U.S. opposed the IAEA’s censure before finally going along with the Europeans. The White House has also failed to help the public understand Iran’s role as the head of the terrorist hydra of proxy militias behind the war in Gaza, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, and attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan.

An Iranian government with a nuclear weapon would make all of these threats exponentially more dangerous. It is therefore “unacceptable,” as Mr. Graham puts it, that the Administration isn’t providing “an updated assessment that outlines the exact status” of Iran’s nuclear program.

Anonymous intelligence sources somehow found it important to leak to the press this week that Russia wants Donald Trump to win the presidential election. After the fiascoes of 2016 and 2020, there’s no reason to believe anything the intelligence services say about the presidential race. But the least the Biden spooks can do is follow the law and be honest with Congress about Iran’s nuclear threat.

[Body-by-Guinness]

NYT claims Israel’s recent assassination in Iran was in fact a bomb positioned 2 months in advance, rather than a missile. If so, implies serious infiltration of Iran by Israeli agents:

https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/08/hamas-leader-haniyeh-assassinated-by-bomb-planted-in-tehran-apartment-two-months-ago-not-by-missile-nyt-reports/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=hamas-leader-haniyeh-assassinated-by-bomb-planted-in-tehran-apartment-two-months-ago-not-by-missile-nyt-reports

[ccp]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-might-the-axis-of-resistance-respond-to-israel-s-escalation/ar-AA1oanHj?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=b4b84dab4cbb4605b759eff3e65196c0&ei=37

[Body-by-Guinness]

Let’s hope this circular blame game morphs into a circular firing squad:

Analysis: Mass arrests and conflicting narratives following the Haniyeh assassination

BY JANATAN SAYEH | August 5, 2024 |

In response to the assassination of former Hamas Political Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, the Islamic Republic has arrested over 20 senior intelligence officers and military officials, as well as staff workers at the military-run guesthouse, The New York Times reported on August 4. A day prior, The Independent Persian claimed that some 40 members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Ansar al-Mahdi Protection Unit were arrested shortly after the assassination.

Some reports even claim that officials as high-ranking as Law Enforcement Special Units Commander Hassan Karami were also arrested in the raids. The regime was quick to address any allegations related to the mass arrests, and the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News promptly rejected some claims, stating that Karami was still the commander of the special units.

The Independent Persian and The Telegraph claim that the IRGC’s specialized intelligence unit for espionage has taken over the investigation into Haniyeh’s assassination, with The Independent Persian reporting that the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) was not allowed to participate in the ongoing manhunt. If true, this further strengthens existing claims about a rivalry among the regime’s security and intelligence institutions.

The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization and MOIS have a long history of competition to dominate the regime’s security apparatus, whether regarding foreign-sponsored espionage or nationwide protest movements. Iranian civic activists who endured torture at the regime’s secret holding cells have claimed that intelligence officers from IRGC and MOIS competed over which faction would be first to find the “culprit” through violent interrogation that obtained confessions, particularly after incidents associated with the Mossad.

This ongoing rivalry might be the reason behind contradictory reporting on how the assassination unfolded. The New York Times and The Telegraph both cited IRGC officials alleging that a bomb was placed in Haniyeh’s room two to three months in advance and detonated remotely from outside Iran. The Telegraph reporting added that two agents placed explosive devices in three rooms of the IRGC safe house and later snuck out of the country but still had a source in Iran.

The IRGC and Hamas, on the other hand, have publicly stated a different story about how the assassination unfolded. Tasnim News reported on the IRGC’s third official statement on the assassination, where it claimed that Israel, with the help of the US, targeted Haniyeh’s room with a short-range projectile with a 7kg (15lbs) warhead from outside the compound.

Hamas’s representative in Tehran, Khaled Qaddoumi, echoed these remarks and stated that the “damage to the wall and ceiling” made it “evident” that the attack was carried out via a “projectile or missile.” Many other regime-funded outlets covered Qaddoumi’s statement and highlighted that “the purpose behind suggesting that a bomb was placed in the room is to “disclaim Israel’s direct responsibility.”

Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack. When asked about Haniyeh’s assassination, Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated that the military did not conduct any additional airstrikes overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, other than the targeted killing of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in Beirut.

This discrepancy in reporting indicates that various parties, such as IRGC Intelligence, IRGC Ansar Al-Mahdi, MOIS, etc., are intentionally crafting differing narratives to deflect blame and avoid being seen as incompetent.

Given that the assassination occurred within an IRGC-controlled compound, the security breach likely originated within the IRGC rather than other intelligence factions. It would also make sense for the IRGC to exclude MOIS from the investigation to protect its reputation.

Amid internal chaos, miscommunication, and a lack of unified messaging, the IRGC has adopted the ‘projectile attack’ narrative. This approach suggests that the strike came from an external source, implying a lesser security failure than an internal breach. The notion that multiple rooms were rigged with remote-controlled explosives is far more humiliating for the IRGC than an external missile hitting what was considered a “safe zone.”

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence.

https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/08/analysis-mass-arrests-and-conflicting-narratives-following-the-haniyeh-assassination.php?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=analysis-mass-arrests-and-conflicting-narratives-following-the-haniyeh-assassination

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-vows-support-for-iran-as-tehran-threatens-retaliatory-attack-on-israel/ar-AA1oCGyz?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=410eb42c55944d28b24f95b4468871a3&ei=27

[Crafty_Dog]

U.S. Tells Allies Iran Has Sent Ballistic Missiles to Russia
European officials say Europe and U.S. are working on a sanctions response to Iran’s move
By Laurence Norman, Michael R. Gordon, and Alexander Ward
Updated Sept. 6, 2024 3:51 pm ET



Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, according to U.S. and European officials, a move that gives Moscow another potent military tool in its war against Ukraine and follows stern Western warnings not to provide those arms to Moscow.

The development comes as Russia has stepped up its missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, killing dozens of civilians in recent days. Washington informed allies of Iran’s shipments this week, European officials said, including a briefing for ambassadors in Washington on Thursday.

A U.S. official confirmed the missiles “have finally been delivered.”

The National Security Council didn’t respond to a request for comment. Neither the Iranian mission to the United Nations in New York nor the Russian Embassy in Washington commented.

Russia has already received Iranian drones, which it has used in Ukraine. It has also been using ammunition and missiles from North Korea to pummel Ukraine.

The missile deliveries also could have implications for the hopes of the new Iranian government to tamp down tensions with the West. The country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said he hopes to improve the domestic economy by winning sanctions relief from Europe and the U.S.

Iran’s military ties with Russia are largely overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

In March, Group of Seven leaders warned they would impose coordinated sanctions on Iran if it carries out the missile transfer.

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Iran’s Shahed drones have disrupted Red Sea shipping, threatened U.S. troops in the Middle East, and caused chaos in Ukraine. These cost-effective, precise suicide drones mark a major shift in drone warfare. Photo Illustration: Getty Images
The shipment involves a couple of hundred short-range ballistic missiles, according to Western officials. Iran has a variety of such weapons, with a range stretching up to around 500 miles.

“This is not the end,” a senior European official said, noting that Iran is expected to keep weapons flowing into Russia.

The deliveries come as Ukraine’s air defenses are being severely challenged by the Russian missiles and drone barrages, a point that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made to Western officials gathered to discuss Ukrainian’s military needs on Friday at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

“The world has enough air-defense systems to ensure that Russian terror does not have results,” Zelensky said.

Ukraine has struggled to contain the ballistic missiles fired by Russia so far. In the six months to March, for instance, Ukraine shot down just 10% of Russian-launched ballistic missiles, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from the Ukrainian Air Force.

Ballistic missiles are too fast and large for most air-defense systems.

The Patriot missile-defense system is Ukraine’s only reliable way to shoot down these missiles, but Kyiv has few of them.

The Iranian missiles could work alongside Russian glide bombs and drones to try and overwhelm Ukraine in the battlefield, said Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. “Accuracy is easier to achieve over shorter ranges,” he said.

European officials said Friday that they were working with their U.S. counterparts on a response that would involve levying additional sanctions. With the Iranian move widely expected in recent months, preparatory work on those measures had been done over the summer.

The Europeans are likely to ban Iran’s flag carrier Iran Air from flying to European airports, which could significantly impact remaining trade ties. They are also set to target a series of Iranian businesses and people involved in the missile transfers, including transport companies.

However, while EU officials had said earlier this year that Iranian missile transfers to Russia would be a red line that could see them directly wind back some of the sanctions relief Tehran won in the 2015 nuclear deal, they have been more tentative in recent weeks. One senior European diplomat said last week that beyond the airline sector, other economic or banking ties with Iran won’t be severed.

European and Iranian officials had been hopeful that Pezeshkian’s election could mean improved engagement with Tehran as the start of a process to calm tensions over Iran’s regional policy and its nuclear program. Tehran was expected to use the coming U.N. General Assembly to signal its outreach.

However, European capitals have repeatedly warned Tehran that Russia’s war in Ukraine is their top security concern and that further Iranian support for Moscow could undermine any improvement in ties.

The U.S. has held periodic talks with Iran, mediated by Omani officials, over the past 18 months and also warned against the missile transfers. U.S. officials had said they were looking to continue those conversations in the coming months.

Moscow’s desire to obtain the missiles became clear in December when a Russian delegation visited a training area in Iran to observe ballistic missiles and related equipment, including the short-range Ababil missile.

That visit followed a September trip by Sergei Shoigu, who was then Russia’s defense minister, to the headquarters of the IRGC aerospace force in Tehran. During that visit, Shoigu observed a display of the Ababil and other missile systems, U.S. officials said. He also met Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and boasted that Russian-Iranian relations were reaching a new level.

Alistair MaDonald contributed to this article.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://nypost.com/2024/09/13/opinion/iran-is-set-to-go-nuclear-thanks-to-biden-and-the-mullahs-want-harris-to-win/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFSoVBleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHYEEHzAQjJalybzdCtQWN9p-9CGwFl6Yn0z8MJm3gG8JK7IWXOmwY01GVQ_aem_4fLEMQcJfV9vXasUuWA0Lw

[Crafty_Dog]

The State Department Inspector General said officials failed to follow standard procedures when they suspended Iran special envoy Robert Malley’s security clearance in April 2023, allowing Malley to continue accessing classified information after his clearance was suspended. According to Congressional staffers who attended a closed door briefing from the Inspector General, the State Department worked to shield Malley from embarrassment and misled lawmakers about Malley’s clearance suspension

[Crafty_Dog]

October 3, 2024
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Iran’s Regional Position Is Crumbling
Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership is radically transforming the region.
By: Kamran Bokhari

A day after Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at targets across the country, Israeli officials on Oct. 2 announced plans for major retaliation, potentially against Iranian oil production and nuclear facilities. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan similarly warned Tehran of “severe consequences,” as Washington said it would support Israel’s response. Separately, Israel started a ground offensive in southern Lebanon to drive Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River.

Iran’s missile barrage – its second against Israel in six months – came only days after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. At least half a dozen other high-ranking figures in the group have died in Israeli airstrikes in a little over a week.

Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and war-making capabilities has paved the way for a massive altering of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. After decades on the offensive, Iran has suffered a huge setback in its strategy for the region. Not only is Tehran facing a regional reversal, but its position at home is also vulnerable given its direct confrontation with Israel. These developments have created a historic opportunity for the United States, Turkey and, to a lesser extent, the Arab states to roll back the disproportionate influence that Iran has built over the past four decades.

Knockout Blow

Hezbollah has never been so weakened. Founded in the early 1980s, the group developed into the dominant force in Lebanon, stronger even than the Lebanese armed forces. In 2000, it forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation. Six years later, it reaffirmed its military prowess when it battled Israel to a stalemate. So impressive were the group’s achievements that Iran made it the foundation of its regional strategy. Tehran modeled its armed proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen after Hezbollah, which became Iran’s junior partner in the cultivation of its proxy network.

Iran's Path to the Mediterranean

(click to enlarge)

The damage to the group’s military capabilities and the destruction of multiple levels of its leadership are thus systemic blows to Iran’s regional sphere of influence and national security. With Hezbollah threatening Israel’s northern flank, Iran could implement an aggressive foreign policy in the Arab world and advance its nuclear program without much threat of an Israeli attack.

For the same reason, Israel determined that the key to countering its strategic encirclement by Iranian proxies was to cripple Hezbollah. An opportunity to execute its plans developed over the past year, in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. As Israeli forces swept through Gaza, bent on Hamas’ annihilation, Iran coordinated with its proxies to drain Israel’s resources while enhancing Tehran’s own position. While the Yemen-based Houthis disrupted commercial shipping with drones and missiles, Hezbollah lobbed rockets and artillery at Israel’s northern townships.

With its Gaza operation ongoing, the Israeli leadership shifted its focus to the northern front, accelerating its attacks against Hezbollah. For months, Israel had been increasingly eliminating Hezbollah leaders and Iranian military commanders, but the turning point came last month when it detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the group and took out much of its senior military leadership in airstrikes. The Israeli campaign culminated last Friday with an airstrike on Hezbollah’s command bunker that killed the group’s leader of 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah, under whose leadership Hezbollah became the formidable force it is known as today.

On Tuesday, Israel launched a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, initially declaring its intent to push Hezbollah away from the border. However, likely due to its early success, Israel enlarged its goals. It now wants to translate Hezbollah’s military losses into political weakening, creating an opportunity for Hezbollah’s opponents to rise up and limit the group's power. If Israel is successful, it could spell the demise of Iran’s regional strategy, but it also risks sparking a civil war in Lebanon, which is no stranger to internal conflict.

Domino Effect

Hezbollah’s weakening has significant implications for Syria. Since 2011, Hezbollah and Iran have been crucial in propping up Bashar Assad’s regime. However, Assad has kept his distance from the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict, focusing instead on mending ties with Arab states and Turkey. He recognizes his overreliance on Iran and Hezbollah, especially after the Syrian civil war, and sees Russia, his other key ally, weakening due to the Ukraine war. Assad will try to manage the situation in Lebanon carefully to prevent it from destabilizing his fragile regime. A weakened Hezbollah and Iran could embolden Syrian rebel groups, a threat Assad wants to avoid. Meanwhile, Turkey, historically checked by Iranian influence in Iraq and the Levant, will likely seek to expand its influence.

The situation marks a severe setback for Iran, jeopardizing its four-decade effort to build a sphere of influence from Tehran to the Eastern Mediterranean. After the events of the past few days, that is the least of Tehran’s worries. Iran now faces the threat of imminent and unprecedented Israeli strikes on its territory and new revelations about the regime’s weakness. Multiple rounds of tit-for-tat strikes are possible, even if the distance between Israel and Iran makes a sustained direct war unlikely.

Iran is far weaker than Israel and stands to lose more in such a conflict. One of Tehran's main concerns is that a conflict could destabilize the country as the regime approaches a historic leadership transition. However, if Israel’s retaliation is extensive, the conflict could spill over into the Gulf and potentially involve the United States. Though the situation remains fluid, what is certain is that Iran, after some four decades as an ascendant regional power, is now in sharp decline.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaMRjR4scAg

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/hamas-built-an-underground-war-machine-to-ensure-its-own-survival/ar-AA1rJkmM?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=843a86748a1a4c77be80cbe29bbff5ff&ei=41

[Crafty_Dog]

HT CCP
=========

https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-natanz-uranium-enrichment-underground-project-04dae673fc937af04e62b65dd78db2e0#:~:text=In%20central%20Iran,%20workers%20are%20building%20a%20nuclear

Even megaton level nuc devices detonated under the ground on top of the Nuc sites would have trouble reaching Natanz.

and there would be nuc fallout .  Outdated (2005) but interesting:

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/earth-penetrating-weapons

I wonder if we have the intelligence on how to get inside these deep nuclear manufacturing facilities. Is there a way to get into them  and destroy from within.

[ccp]

yes I am thinking a 2,000 bomb - the largest conventional we make - so armchair guy, me, has read

a megaton 1 million tons of TNT or equivalent to one million 2,000 lbs bombs couldn't even reach the concrete proof site.

I am wary that the IDF can succeed.  What if Iran has also built tunnels connecting the sites?
The maps show 10 sites though not clear to me if Natanz is the most bomb proof of the ten.

I pray IDF has the full inside skinny on these sites though they were surprised at the extant of Hamas tunnels.

I think the US really has to help.  But who am I?

Is Wesley Clark retired?

Do others in the military agree with him?

[Crafty_Dog]

Why do you ask for Wesley Clark?

[ccp]

Well he is supportive of Israel being aggressive and sounds like he would recommend the US help them.

I think I posted his interview on Newsmax recently.

Here it is.  yes he is retired and it states so right in the headline !   

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/wesleyclark-israel-iran/2024/10/04/id/1182904/

yes I know he is a Democrat.

[Crafty_Dog]

The world retains its ability to surprise!!!

I have him filed under the heading of "politically ambitious and a big Hillary supporter".