Iran

[DougMacG]

"Yes I know he [Wesley Clark] is a Democrat."

  - It used to be that partisan differences ended at the water's edge.

[Crafty_Dog]

October 31, 2024
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In Iran, Israeli Attacks Create the Ultimate Dilemma
Tehran’s 40-year-old national security policy has run its course.
By: Kamran Bokhari

Israel attacked Iran last Friday in a large-scale air assault that struck targets across the country. The implications of the attack – long-feared by Tehran – are many. Israel showcased its ability and willingness to hit Iran proper, while Iran demonstrated the fecklessness of its air defenses. With the destruction of Hezbollah, Iran’s most important regional proxy, the attack dealt a major blow to Iran’s ability to project power in the Middle East. And, crucially, it has done all of this amid an important political transition within the Iranian government.

The reaction of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s octogenarian supreme leader, was telling. He appeared to delegate responsibility to “our officials,” who he said should be the ones to properly assess what needed to be done and “whatever is in the best interests” of the country. This comes after he reportedly called on state officials to neither downplay nor exaggerate the significance of the Israeli strike, even as various officials and news agencies tried to dismiss its importance. His comments show that the government was, indeed, shaken by the attack and for several reasons.

First, the attack was unprecedented. Some even doubted Israel’s ability to carry it out. Second, it involved nearly a hundred aircraft and required mid-air refueling capability at a scale that Israel’s air force had never before shown. Third, most of the aircraft remained within Iraqi airspace, using stand-off munitions to strike at military targets in four different provinces. Fourth and most important, the strikes took out Iran’s air defense systems, including the Russian-supplied S-300 system, and attacked ballistic missile production facilities.

Operation 'Days of Repentance'

(click to enlarge)

Though the exact extent of the damage remains unclear, Israel appears to have degraded Iran’s ability to strike back on its own territory and defend itself against another round of airstrikes. Iran, then, now faces a dilemma: If it retaliates against this most recent strike, Israel’s next response could be worse. Future ones will likely be more lethal and more destructive and will probably go after higher-value targets such as oil facilities, transportation infrastructure and perhaps even nuclear sites.

This explains why the supreme leader did not simply order counterstrikes as he did after earlier Israeli attacks. He and his regime have been forced into a situation in which any additional attacks on Israel could further expose their weaknesses. Tehran was already in an impossible situation after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s death: It knew that unlike the April 19 Israeli counterattack, which was relatively tame, this time Israel would respond with much more force. But it was not an option to ignore the killing of Nasrallah and the degradation of his group. Tehran could not afford to be seen as having stood by when Hezbollah was being pummeled; doing so would undermine its credibility among its Iraqi, Syrian and Yemeni proxies, which would question Iran’s commitment to their cause if it did not come to the aid of its crown jewel in Lebanon. Thus, Tehran decided to proceed with the Oct. 1 barrage of Israel.

For nearly a generation, Iran has bet that the proximity and potency of Hezbollah would deter any Israeli attack on its home turf. This assumed that Israel lacked the ability and/or the will to mount a crippling attack on Hezbollah. But as Hezbollah struggled to defend itself against Israel’s onslaught, Tehran knew the calculus no longer held. And now after last Friday’s airstrikes, Iran is much worse off knowing that Israel has the ability to hit it directly.

It’s not in Iran’s interest to let this become the status quo. But to keep that from happening, it has to halt further hostile actions against Israel. This means Tehran has to cut its losses and accept that Israel will continue to weaken Hezbollah. The Iranian strategy is now one of trying to salvage its proxy network and, by extension, its regional position.

Importantly, this isn’t just a loss for Iran on the foreign policy front. It will have domestic implications for a country that is on the cusp of a historic political transition. The country’s 40-year-old national security policy has run its course. It’s now a liability. The major stakeholders of the regime – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regular armed forces, or the Artesh, both of which have eclipsed the clergy as the political establishment’s center of gravity – understand as much and will need to determine how aggressive their foreign policy can actually be.

The conundrum that Tehran faces is that it cannot simply alter course. The regime is bitterly divided from within between the more ideological elements and the pragmatists. Any abrupt change on the foreign policy front can lead to serious infighting at home and at a time when public support for the regime is at its lowest. How the Islamic Republic deals with itself is about to become far more critical now that its power projection capabilities have taken a serious hit.

[ccp]

This is not good.

I guess SA is thinking better to make peace with Iran.  I thought they were afraid of their nucs program.

This can't be good for Israel.

Would like to see detailed theories or hypothesis of what this means.

[ccp]

I did not know the CIA was tipped off about 9/11 in July '01 by an Iranian defector who with evidence claimed Arabs wer planning and hijacking planes and flying them into the WTC Pentagon White House and CIA building, but brushed it off as nonsense.

Also, the CIA had tracked something like 8 of the 10 hijackers prior to the attack.

I did not know only around couple hundred people rule Iran and could probably easily be "eliminated"

He also states, though he did not say when, that Israeli Mossad agents slipped into Tehran  one night and broke into a location where designs and plans for the Iran nuclear program were being stored, and escaped with all the plans unharmed. 

He states IAE claimed Iran has enough materials to build 5 bombs in one week and 15 in 5 months.

I think we heard that before.

He is not sure if Iran has put it all together into a bomb yet.  He thinks if they had, we have seen one go off by now.
The hope is they would do a demonstration that is not on Israel.

https://gingrich360.com/2024/10/28/newts-world-episode-768-israel-iran-and-the-middle-east-conflict/

[Crafty_Dog]

Energy industry leaders predict Donald Trump will again impose crushing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, predicts that Trump will target ports that take Iranian oil and make the issue a top priority in his talks with China, which is one of Iran’s top buyers. According to McNally, “Iran policy is the most important consequence of the election. The vote between Harris and Trump was literally up or down on Iranian supply. Trump is going to crack down on Iran from day one.”

[ccp]

Frack Fine and Force

frack in Us
fine Iran
force them to stand down their nuc program

[Body-by-Guinness]

@Osint613

Get ready, Khamenei regime. Hook is no softie.

Brian Hook, is reportedly being tapped to begin assembling the State Department for a potential new Trump term.

Hook, recognized for his hardline stance on Iran and as an architect of the “maximum pressure” strategy involving sanctions, covert actions, and targeted operations against Tehran, has been assigned to help shape the new foreign policy team. - CNN

[Crafty_Dog]

Trump’s Win Means It Isn’t Iran’s Middle East Anymore
Shock waves from the Republican sweep are felt throughout the region.
By The Editorial Board
Updated Nov. 7, 2024 5:53 pm ET


News of Donald Trump’s victory sent the rial, Iran’s currency, to an all-time low this week. The party may be over for the Iranian regime, which took in more than $40 billion in extra oil revenue during the Biden years owing to nonenforcement of U.S. sanctions. The rolling bribe bought America nothing and gave China cheap oil.

Shock waves from the U.S. election are felt throughout the Mideast, which noticed Wednesday’s CNN report that Brian Hook is expected to lead the State Department transition team. Mr. Hook led the first Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran, and he has been living under Iranian threats on his life. His presence is a signal that America means business again.

As Iran weighs striking Israel a third time, it must know that its defenses are down after Israel’s recent retaliation—and not only the Russian equipment. The Biden Administration can no longer protect the Iranian regime. President Biden’s leverage over Israel has largely collapsed, thanks to U.S. voters.

When Mr. Biden deemed Iran’s nuclear facilities off-limits to Israeli retaliation, Mr. Trump disagreed. “That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” he said Oct. 4. “The answer should have been: Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later.” You can bet that one landed on Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s desk.

The election also sends a warning to the International Criminal Court, which is abusing its powers to bring up Israel’s leaders on politicized charges. America is next on the ICC’s target list. Tough U.S. sanctions against the ICC are all but guaranteed after Republicans take control of Congress.

President Biden and Sen. Chuck Schumer could stop blocking bipartisan sanctions on the ICC right now. Freed from pandering to voters in Dearborn, Mich., they can head off those ICC arrest warrants, which may be issued shortly. If Democrats don’t, and the court acts first, it will be too late to save the court from the consequences of its overreach.

The Middle East awaited Nov. 5 to determine the conclusion of the war. The election of Mr. Trump—who wants Israel to finish up and win, as opposed to handcuffing it and pressuring it to lose—improves Israel’s bargaining position with Hezbollah and Hamas.

The pressure is on them to succumb to Israel’s terms. In one of Mr. Trump’s biggest applause lines at the Republican convention, he warned, “We want our hostages back, and they better be back before I assume office or you will be paying a very big price.” That threat is now operative, and the clock is ticking.

On Jan. 20, 1981, during President Reagan’s inaugural address, Iran released 52 U.S. hostages after 444 days in captivity. Today some 50 hostages are believed to be alive in Gaza, including four Americans: Edan Alexander, Omer Neutra, Sagui Dekel-Chen and Keith Siegel. We’re coming up on 400 days.

The 1980 election aftermath could be a precedent to follow for Hamas and its patrons in Qatar and Iran. Each has plenty to lose if a motivated U.S. President wants to act.

[Crafty_Dog]

Preparations. The U.S. Central Command said a squadron of F-15E Strike Eagles from an air base in England arrived in its area of responsibility, a day after the Times of Israel reported that the U.S. decided to temporarily deploy fighter jets to Jordan. The deployment comes as Israel and Washington continue to anticipate that Iran will launch a retaliatory strike against Israel.

[Crafty_Dog]

Tehran is building tunnels to facilitate mass medical evacuation and harden its defenses for the first time, according to Iran’s state media. (Increasing capital defenses suggest Iran expects further escalation and strikes on its capital. – J.V.)

[ccp]

Tehran is building tunnels to facilitate mass medical evacuation and harden its defenses for the first time, according to Iran’s state media. (Increasing capital defenses suggest Iran expects further escalation and strikes on its capital. – J.V.)

the longer we wait the harder it will be.....

[Body-by-Guinness]

I’d heard speculation that Israel used the Iran attacks to also hit secret nuclear sites, knowing Iran couldn’t object without copping to the fact they are after nukes. This, though, is the first confirmation I’ve encountered:

Scoop: Israel destroyed active nuclear weapons research facility in Iran, officials say

Barak Ravid

The Israeli attack on Iran in late October destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin, according to three U.S. officials, one current Israeli official and one former Israeli official.

Why it matters: The strike — which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive — significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

One former Israeli official briefed on the strike said it destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it.

Iran has denied it is pursuing nuclear weapons. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement last week that "Iran is not after nuclear weapons, period."

The Iranian mission to the UN declined to comment for this story.

The incoming Trump administration will include several key national security and foreign policy officials who are hawkish on Iran, which could lead to increased U.S. pressure on the Islamic Republic.

Driving the news: One of the targets of the Israeli strike on Oct. 25 was the Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran.

The facility was part of the Iranian Amad nuclear weapons program until Iran halted its military nuclear program in 2003. It was used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.

High-resolution satellite imagery acquired by the institute after the Israeli strike showed the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed.
Behind the scenes: Israeli and U.S. officials said the activity that took place recently at the Taleghan 2 facility was part of an effort inside the Iranian government to conduct research that could be used for the development of nuclear weapons but could also be presented as research for civilian purposes.

"They conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't," a U.S. official said.

Israeli and U.S. intelligence began detecting research activity at Parchin earlier this year, including Iranian scientists conducting computer modeling, metallurgy and explosive research that could be used for nuclear weapons.

Flashback: Last June, the White House officials privately warned the Iranians in direct conversations about the suspicious research activities, Axios reported.

The U.S. hoped the warning would make the Iranians stop their nuclear activity, but they continued, the officials said.
A U.S. official said that in the months before the Israeli attack "there was concern across the board" about the Iranian activity at the Taleghan 2 facility.

The Iranian nuclear weapons research even led the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to change its assessment about the Iranian nuclear program.

The Wall Street Journal reported in August that a DNI report to Congress didn't include a sentence that had appeared in intelligence assessments in recent years, which said Iran "is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device."

Between the lines: When Israel prepared its retaliation for Iran's massive Oct. 1 missile attack, the Taleghan 2 facility was chosen as a target.

President Biden asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities in order not to trigger a war with Iran, U.S. officials said.

But Taleghan 2 was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program so the Iranians wouldn't be able to acknowledge the significance of the attack without admitting they violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

"The strike was a not so subtle message that the Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government," a U.S. official said.

What to watch: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors will meet next week and is expected to vote on a censure resolution against Iran for its lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog. Iran has said it could respond by limiting its cooperation with the IAEA.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi visited Iran on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the board meeting.

Araghchi told Grossi that Iran is willing to negotiate with the E3 — France, Germany and the UK — "on its peaceful nuclear program ... but not ready to negotiate under pressure and intimidation."

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/iran-israel-destroyed-active-nuclear-weapons-research-facility

[ccp]

I saw that report too and was wondering why we have not heard more about it
but it will likely be fodder for talking heads over the wknd.

[Body-by-Guinness]

I saw that report too and was wondering why we have not heard more about it
but it will likely be fodder for talking heads over the wknd.

It appears to me that everyone from Iran to the talking heads think they are better off pretending like no illicit nuke sites were hit as it leaves the whole nuclear weapon development in Iran act deniable. As soon as Iran or their supporters acknowledge a nuclear program they hand Trump an excuse to act, and that’s the last thing the mullahs want, hence this patently silly tact.

[DougMacG]

Iran was behind 10/7 attacks.

Another one of those, who could have known, type of revelations...

https://jewishinsider.com/2024/11/iran-gaza-hamas-oct-7-terror-attacks-hezbollah/

Still not answered, Obama Biden paved the road to Iran going nuclear, and financed it, why?

Unless you want Israel destroyed and endless war in the middle east, Iran is our enemy and Israel is our ally. Looking at it from any other angle is bunk.  IMHO.