Military Science, Military Issues, and the Nature of War

[Crafty_Dog]

The Future of Warfare Is Electronic
An audacious Ukrainian incursion into Russia shows why. Is the Pentagon paying enough attention?
By Porter Smith and Nathan Mintz
Sept. 4, 2024 12:35 pm ET

The Ukrainian army has launched a stunning offensive into Kursk, Russia, under a shield of advanced electronic weapons. The war in Ukraine is demonstrating that 21st-century conflicts will be won or lost in the arena of electronic warfare.

Think of electronic warfare as casting spells on an invisible battlefield. Combatants strive to preserve their own signals, while disrupting those of the enemy. In Kursk, the Ukrainians took advantage of their technical knowledge to achieve a leap in battlefield tactics. Using a variety of electronic sensing systems, they managed to figure out the key Russian radio frequencies along the invasion route. They jammed these frequencies, creating a series of electronic bubbles that kept enemy drones away from Ukrainian forces, allowing reconnaissance units, tanks and mechanized infantry to breach the Russian border mostly undetected. This is the chaotic way of modern combat: a choreography of lightweight, unmanned systems driven by a spiderweb of electronic signals.

During visits to Ukraine over the past year, we observed the convergence of unmanned systems and electronic warfare, increasingly conducted by front-line troops. An island in the Dnipro River delta south of Mykolaiv is held by a contingent of Ukrainian special forces. These units would normally be supported by heavy artillery, attack aviation, and air-defense missiles, and resupplied by traditional maritime assets. Today, short on conventional resources but buoyed by Ukrainian tech entrepreneurs, they are pioneering the development and use of quadcopters and drone boats for resupply, reconnaissance, evacuation and amphibious assaults.

The Russians have so far been unable to dislodge these innovators but have begun using their own jammers to counter the waves of Ukrainian drone fleets supporting them, effectively creating a classic blockade. With the local electronic environment scrambled, Ukrainian drones have difficulty operating. If the Russians succeed, they could isolate the Ukrainian forces on the island. As these struggles reveal, the ultimate prize in modern warfare is spectrum dominance: ensuring one’s own control of drone networks while detecting and denying the adversary’s.

Connectivity has become as important to war as supply lines. Three decades of innovation have transformed cell phones from a luxury to some 15 billion internet-linked devices today. War zones are jam-packed with electronic brains. Unlike Cold War jets, tanks and ships, each system is primarily controlled by software and relies on the same connectivity found in doorbell security cameras, electric vehicles and consumer mobile apps. The value of a smartphone isn’t necessarily the aluminum rectangle in your hand, but the software it contains and the network to which it’s connected. This is also now true of military devices.

America has a reputation as a global innovator, yet it trails in the dark arts of electronic warfare. Improvised jamming systems and dozens of counter-drone systems have created a spectral environment that the U.S. military isn’t yet prepared to navigate. American drones and munitions frequently can’t overcome the jamming of their guidance systems. Yet we send them to Ukraine, where the Russians often scramble them before they reach their targets.

Our core jamming platforms, such as the EA-18G Growler and antiradiation missiles, are effective but expensive and difficult to build at speed and scale. Using a $1 million missile to destroy a $10,000 jammer and clear the way for a $1,000 drone is absurd. With our current platforms, it will be the norm.

The Ukrainians outside Mykolaiv solved their electronic-warfare woes, however temporarily, without seven-figure munitions. Their marines dangled direction-finding antennas inside PVC piping from a first-person view drone for rough triangulations of Russian jammers using tested, decades-old signals techniques, before using artillery to strike the locations. When we asked why a marine unit, which doesn’t typically specialize in electronic warfare, was running improvised hunter-killer missions on jamming sites, the Ukrainians reacted with surprise. Their electronic intelligence expert explained, “You can’t do anything in this war without first figuring out the jamming.”

A military that can’t build a dynamic electronic shield around its own forces will likewise be unable to maneuver in the coming drone wars. Modern electronic-warfare systems mounted on low-cost drones are now as necessary as munitions. New companies are in the early stages of building the right weapons but need the Pentagon to recognize the same future—and spend accordingly.

We aren’t the only ones watching Ukraine. China moves at the speed of war, while the U.S. moves at the speed of bureaucracy. If we retool our approach to electronic warfare, America will tip the scales in favor of deterrence and, if necessary, victory. If not, we will be subject to the harsh lessons inevitably faced by those who fight the last war.

Mr. Smith is a former U.S. Army attack aviator and officer of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment. Mr. Mintz, an aerospace engineer, was founding CEO of the defense startups Epirus, Spartan Radar and now CX2.

[Body-by-Guinness]

... and imports perhaps inferior or compromised parts used in critical military systems and weaponry, recieving a pro-forma fine for it:

State Department Fines RTX While US Security is Compromised
Many of the Violations Happened at Rockwell Collins, now Collins Aerospace, an RTX company

STEPHEN BRYEN
SEP 11, 2024

The State Department has let RTX corporation off the hook on serious violations of US export control laws that resulted in the compromise of major US military systems.  The transactions involved China, Iran and Russia among others and procurement of important parts for defense systems from China.


The RTX chalet at the 2023 Paris Air Show shows off both the rebranded company name and its older Raytheon Technologies title. (Aaron Mehta/Breaking Defense)
Despite reporting more than 750 violations, RTX was fined $200 million, although the real fine is only half that amount. No other action was taken.  Apparently no referrals were made to the Department of Justice.  No estimate was made of damages to US security.  The fine is just a number pulled out of a hat and is, in fact, a meaningless action given the severity of the violations.  RTX revenues are around $69 billion annually.

According to the State Department, most of the violations happened in the Collins Aerospace division of RTX, but there also were export violations in other parts of RTX.


Officials from Collins Aerospace and CASC at the contract signing ceremony.
The State Department says that its response was not harsher because the company voluntarily disclosed the violations and cooperated with the State Department on strengthening export compliance.

The violations include Iran, Lebanon, Russia and China.  China was used as a parts subcontractor for US defense systems and received export controlled technical data and design information so they could manufacture components.

These transactions allowed Collins, now a division of RTX, to buy cheap and potentially inferior components from China.  Collins has operations in Shanghai and is partnered with China Aerospace Systems Corporation

The US has three systems for controlling US exports.  The State Department administers the Arms Export Control Act and publishes regulations known as the International Traffic in Arms regulations (ITAR).  Defense companies know that most of what they produce is covered under ITAR regulation.

The Commerce Department administers Export Administration Regulations and publishes regulations known as the Commodity Control List (CCL).  CCL covers includes national security, foreign policy, short-supply, nuclear non-proliferation, missile technology, chemical and biological weapons, regional stability, crime control, and terrorist concerns.

The Treasury Department administers various US export sanctions managed by the Office of Foreign Asset Controls.  The US has sanctions on Russia, China and Iran. All three countries also run aggressive spying operations against the United States including extensive cyber hacking, often described as an “advanced persistent threat.”

While the above three agencies administer the programs there is sometimes overlap and controversy over categories, and there are interagency mechanisms to sort them out.  In addition other agencies, most notably the Defense Department, the Department of Energy (especially for nuclear-related technology) and US Intelligence (mainly the CIA) participate in establishing technology controls, tracking adversaries, and adjudicating export license applications.

Collins Aerospace

Rockwell Collins was acquired by United Technologies Corporation (UTC) on November 27, 2018 for $30 billion and now operates as part of Collins Aerospace, a subsidiary of the RTX Corporation (formerly Raytheon Technologies). A significant part of the company's business is commercial aviation (but many of the same products are used in military aviation).  In terms of defense projects Rockwell Collins was involved with the Common Avionics Architecture System (CAAS), Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS), Tactical Targeting Network Technology (TTNT), Defense Advanced GPS Receiver (DAGR), and Future Combat Systems. Importantly, Collins Aerospace, the successor division of RTX, specializes in integrated battlefield management.  As the company says, "With our long history of providing software-defined radios, gateway solutions and communication systems, we know what it will take to connect the battlespace. We’re bringing new technologies and capabilities to allied forces faster with innovative solutions that integrate legacy and new assets, open systems architecture, digital engineering and militarized commercial technologies."  Collins Aerospace has revenues of $26.2 billion.

According to the State Department, since 2020 there have been 27 voluntary disclosures concerning Collins Aerospace. "In at least two cases, such unauthorized exports resulted in the manufacture of thousands of defense articles (comprising approximately 45 distinct part numbers) in the PRC [China], importation of those defense articles into the United States, and the eventual integration of those defense articles into multiple U.S. and partner military platforms. In 16 cases, Respondent [Collins? or RTX?] or its foreign affiliates exported or reexported without authorization defense articles related to military aircraft and missile system programs..."  The State Department contends that most of these violations occurred before Rockwell Collins was acquired by UTC in 2018.

It is especially disturbing that the State Department took no action for four years after being informed about these violations that included purchases of Chinese products for US defense systems.  Was the US military informed about Chinese parts showing up in its military systems?  There is no information in the State Department report.

The State Department "Charging Document" also reveals that the US AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) was also compromised. "In two disclosures that Respondent initially submitted to the Department in 2021 and 2022, it disclosed unauthorized exports that occurred at Respondent’s facility in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in the form of unauthorized releases of USML [US Munitions List, namely the ITAR] ... technical data related to the Boeing E-3 Sentry Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft and the Embraer KC-390 Millennium Medium Weight Transport Plane to a Chinese foreign-person employees (FPE)."  There is no comment why a Chinese citizen was employed by Collins Aerospace or any other follow up regarding other Chinese employees of the company.  Are these employees still in Cedar Rapids?

Collins, through its subsidiary in Shanghai, China also sought Chinese-company bids for an aluminum display housing components for the US stealth F-22 fighter bomber.  At least two Collins Chinese employees were involved. Collins also also "contemporaneously and separately exported without authorization the same technical data to four entities in the PRC."

In another disclosure in 2023 RTX reported that Collins "released certain circuit card assemblies" to PRC companies.  These are printed circuit boards that are covered under ITAR rules (e.g. specially designed for military use).  Collins claims they were inadvertently mis-classified as falling under Commerce Department Export Administration Act rules.  No information is given that the Commerce Department actually issued any license to Collins, so we are left with the impression that Collins treated the transaction as a commercial transaction not requiring an export license.  The Charging Document does not reveal what defense products were involved.

According to the Charging Document Rockwell Collins also sought printed wiring circuits (printed circuit boards) from China for the following US systems:

• VC-25 Presidential Transport Aircraft (Air Force One)

• A-10 Thunderbolt II Close Air Support Attack Aircraft

• B-1B Lancer Supersonic Strategic Heavy Bomber

• B-52 Stratofortress Strategic Bomber

• C-17 Globemaster III Strategic Airlifter

• C-130J Super Hercules Military Transport Aircraft

• CH-53 Super and King Stallion Cargo Helicopter

• F-15 Eagle Fighter Aircraft

• F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Aircraft

• F/A-18 Hornet Fighter Aircraft

• KC-46 Pegasus Tanker Aircraft

• KC-130 Tanker Aircraft

• KC-135 Stratotanker Tanker Aircraft

• MQ-4 Triton Surveillance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

• MQ-8 Fire Scout UAV Helicopter

• MQ-9 Reaper Combat UAV

• MQ-25 Stingray Refueling UAV

• P-8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft

• U-2 Reconnaissance Aircraft

The Charging Document does not reveal information about the "wiring boards" beyond saying that Collins was trying to subcontract them to China.

The company also disclosed that it reexported and retransferred to 25 countries including China items (not otherwise described) that are parts of the following military systems:

• Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System

• B-2 Spirit Bomber Aircraft

• F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet Fighter Aircraft

• F-15 Eagle Fighter Aircraft;

• F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Aircraft

• F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft

• F-35 Lightning II Fighter Aircraft

• National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System

• PATRIOT Air Defense System

• Phalanx Close-In Weapons System

• RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile

Iran and Russia

"In March 2019, an employee hand carried a company-issued laptop, which contained ITAR-controlled technical data, to Iran. The company detected the employee’s attempt to use the laptop to connect to the internet while in Iran and initiated a “freeze” in response, restricting access to the laptop’s hard drive.

Following the employee’s return to the United States, the company determined that the laptop contained USML Category...  technical data related to the B-2 Spirit Bomber Aircraft and F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft," according to the Charging Document.  The employee's name is not included, nor what division of the company employed this person.

Similarly, in 2021 an RTX employee traveled to St. Petersburg, Russia with a company issued laptop. Unlike the Iranian laptop which the company was able to "freeze," that did not happen in St. Petersburg, as the cyber team in RTX decided that the use of the laptop in St. Petersburg, Russia was a "false positive."  It isn't clear if this trip was for personal reasons but the Document says the employee made four personal trips to Russia to see his fiancé.  The laptop contained highly sensitive information. The laptop hosted 152 files that contained technical data "related to the F-15 Eagle Fighter Aircraft, F/A-18 Hornet Fighter Aircraft, the F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft, the F-35 Lightning II Fighter Aircraft, and the U-2 Reconnaissance Aircraft."

It is well known that the Russians and the Iranians have extensive cyber-hacking capabilities.

Conclusion

RTX was fined $200 million, but the State Department allowed that half that amount could be used by the company for export compliance.  One hundred million dollars for export compliance does not make any sense, since a few million invested in compliance would be more than enough, even in a large company.  We can thus conclude that the actual fine is $100 million and the $200 million figure is just for public relations purposes.

No effort was made to determine the actual cost to the US in compromised security systems or in illegal Chinese products stuffed into US weapons.

The fact that the State Department has been sitting on this information for years is greatly disturbing. 

The lack of prosecutions and punishments is equally problematic. No one is being held accountable.

Nor do we know if the voluntary disclosures actually cover what happened, since there is not a shred of evidence that the State Department investigated any of the disclosures to see if they truly reflected what took place.

The bottom line is that the enforcement agencies really did as little as possible to protect American security interests.

https://weapons.substack.com/p/state-department-fines-rtx-while?r=1qo1e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

[Crafty_Dog]

https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2024/08/25/navy-to-sideline-17-ships-due-to-lack-of-manpower-n2400105?fbclid=IwY2xjawFUf1FleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHf1bbHhplVlKRW-NLA7foRSholhCf4Si_kTyx97bjHMkg2L-qAOi4LIlig_aem_PElzUZkc3RVw2moAZlawvQ

Not to worry though , , ,

https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2024/09/15/navy-launches-gender-neutral-submarien-n2400987?utm_source=twdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl&bcid=a1714aba6c197395707aecde9ada65a65090b7be5f45291f6611e9cf3bd6bace&lctg=2677215

[ccp]

armed with sea to air missiles, torpedos, and stealth

nicknamed "Jersey Girl"  it includes condoms, birth control medicines and plenty of azithromycin and doxycycline and even ceftriaxone just in case they come against an enemy  third generation  - gonorrhea  .

but we are safe!   

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/railgun-revolution-why-the-u-s-navy-s-abandoned-dream-could-be-china-s-next-big-thing/ar-AA1qIjL2?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=1d7fb8b57e534fb88ec5a50d8d46098b&ei=20

[Crafty_Dog]

Hezbollah: Behind the Headlines
Israel infiltrates with exploding pagers, but against what target?
Robert W Malone MD, MS
Sep 18

Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary
12 killed, 3,000 wounded in unprecedented security breach

Hezbollah ordered pages months ago; vows retaliation

Pagers made by Europe firm BAC, Taiwan-based firm says

Devices modified by Israel at production, Lebanon security sources say

Israel makes not comment

A new phase of the war between Israel and Hezbollah has begun, another ethical boundary has been breached, and a wide variety of state and non-state actors will now adopt and adapt this strategy. This new battlefront involves personal electronic devices and the integration of triggered explosives into those devices. In the current embodiment, these devices were deployed using non-specific personnel targeting. However, it seems likely that future deployment will involve both non-specific and individually targeted exploding devices. The implications for public transportation (including air transport) and crowded environments are self-evident. Beyond the damage done to an individual, the potential of this strategy to evoke terror, existential fear, and a variety of forms of disruption is immense. To illustrate the point, remember that psychological bioterror strategies and events are associated with 100 to 1000 times the economic and societal damage related to a bioterror agent's actual, physical deployment. In this current example, current reports indicate something in the range of 10 - 20 direct deaths attributable to exploding personal electronic devices and up to 3,000 wounded. However, the indirect psychological effects will be far more damaging. And this is undoubtedly what was intended. Not only Hezbollah fighters, but virtually the whole world now must be alert and actively mitigating the possibility that their personal electronic devices may incorporate explosives capable of killing or maiming them. Of course, this will include pagers, laptops, cell phones, and all other electronic devices.

Please remember that we are rapidly approaching an age of General artificial intelligence, drones, and robot warriors. The lithium batteries that most personal electronic devices employ are notorious for exploding or otherwise burning. It seems highly likely that there will be many variations and derivatives of this strategy. In a sense, this is an extension and escalation of the “Improvised Explosive Device” (IED) tactic that has been so successfully deployed in Afghanistan and throughout the Middle East by insurgent and resistance cells.

The potential economic impacts should not be overlooked, particularly for personal electronic device markets. This will inevitably lead to the need for some packaging and validation solutions to reassure consumers that a purchased device is certified and free of explosive risk, as well as new screening and monitoring processes for air travel. The implications are profound, and I doubt that the Mossad or whatever organization is responsible for this has fully considered the blowback.

Returning to the Reuters wrap-up summary:

BEIRUT, Sept 18 (Reuters) - A Taiwanese pager maker denied on Wednesday that it had produced devices that wounded thousands of Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon when they exploded, an audacious attack that raised the prospect of a full-scale war between the Iran-backed group and arch-foe Israel.

Gold Apollo said the devices were made by under license by a company called BAC, based in Hungary's capital Budapest.

Israel's spy agency Mossad, which has a long history of pulling off sophisticated attacks on foreign soil, planted explosives inside pagers imported by Hezbollah months before Tuesday's detonations, a senior Lebanese security source and another source told Reuters.

The death toll rose to 12, including two children, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said on Wednesday. The attack wounded nearly 3,000 people, including many of the group's fighters and Iran's envoy to Beirut.

Iran-backed Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel, whose military declined to comment on the blasts. The two sides have been engaged in cross-border warfare since the Gaza conflict erupted last October, fueling fears of a wider Middle East conflict that could drag in the United States and Iran.

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi accused Israel of pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war by orchestrating a dangerous escalation on many fronts.

"Hezbollah wants to avoid an all-out war. It still wants to avoid one. But given the scale, the impact on families, on civilians, there will be pressure for a stronger response," said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Hezbollah, Iran's most powerful proxy in the Middle East, said in a statement it would continue to support Hamas in Gaza and Israel should await a response to the pager "massacre" which left fighters and others bloodied, hospitalized, or dead.

One Hezbollah official said the detonation was the group's "biggest security breach" in its history.

Footage from hospitals reviewed by Reuters showed men with various injuries, some to the face, some with missing fingers, and gaping wounds at the hip where the pagers were likely worn.

The plot appears to have been many months in the making, several sources told Reuters. It followed a series of assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and leaders blamed on Israel since the start of the Gaza war.

TRAIL LEADS TO BUDAPEST

The senior Lebanese security source said the group had ordered 5,000 pagers from Gold Apollo, which several sources say were brought into the country earlier this year.

Gold Apollo founder Hsu Ching-Kuang said the pagers used in the explosion were made by a company in Europe that Gold Apollo named in a statement as BAC.

"The product was not ours. It was only that it had our brand on it," Hsu told reporters at the company's offices in the northern Taiwanese city of New Taipei on Wednesday.

The stated address for BAC Consulting in Hungary's capital Budapest was a peach building on a mostly residential street in an outer suburb. The company name was posted on the glass door on an A4 sheet.

A person at the building who asked not to be named said BAC Consulting was registered there but did not have a physical presence. The CEO of BAC Consulting, Cristiana Barsony-Arcidiacono, says on her LinkedIn profile that she has worked as an adviser for various organizations, including UNESCO. She did not respond to emails from Reuters.

BAC's registered activities are wide-ranging, from computer game publishing to IT consulting to crude oil extraction.

The senior Lebanese security source identified a photograph of the model of the pager, an AR-924. Hezbollah fighters have been using pagers as a low-tech means of communication in an attempt to evade Israeli location-tracking.

Gold Apollo AR924 Rugged Pager


The senior Lebanese source said the devices had been modified by Israel's spy service "at the production level." Israeli officials did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

"The Mossad injected a board inside of the device that has explosive material that receives a code. It's very hard to detect it through any means," the source said.

The source said about 3,000 of the pagers exploded when a coded message was sent to them, simultaneously activating the explosives.

Another security source told Reuters that up to three grams of explosives were hidden in the new pagers and had gone "undetected" by Hezbollah for months.

[Body-by-Guinness]

Hezbollah: Behind the Headlines
Israel infiltrates with exploding pagers, but against what target?
Robert W Malone MD, MS
Sep 18

Hezbollah exploding pager trail runs from Taiwan to Hungary
12 killed, 3,000 wounded in unprecedented security breach

Hezbollah ordered pages months ago; vows retaliation

Pagers made by Europe firm BAC, Taiwan-based firm says

Devices modified by Israel at production, Lebanon security sources say

Israel makes not comment

I will note this Rubicon was long ago crossed by the US, China, and others where insertion of passive spyware etc. was concerned, and indeed the high speed uranium enrichers (bet that phrase will attact NSA attention) that rotated themselves into high speed oblivion were a result of stuxnet insertion. In short, not quite the Brave New World the above indicates....

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-world-s-largest-shipyard-is-helping-the-u-s-catch-up-to-china-s-navy/vi-AA1qOjxU?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=fc9ec13e1d1c40d299680811ff7e9317&ei=38#details

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-navy-hasn-t-got-the-ships-and-hasn-t-got-the-men/ar-AA1qYvCu?ocid=msedgntp&pc=HCTS&cvid=cd125a44beb9435fa7b0dbf0812b7fa4&ei=68

US Marines and sailors on the flight deck of USS Bataan as the ship passes the Statue of LIberty on the way to Fleet Week in New York City. The US Navy is struggling to recruit - Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty
US Marines and sailors on the flight deck of USS Bataan as the ship passes the Statue of LIberty on the way to Fleet Week in New York City. The US Navy is struggling to recruit - Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty
To keep pace with an expanding Chinese fleet, the US Navy is still clinging to an ambitious – but so far unrealised – plan to grow its front-line fleet from around 290 warships to at least 350.

But the Navy doesn’t have enough sailors to fully man the ships it has already – to say nothing of the extra ships it wants. Equally troubling, the manpower shortage means fewer sailors are doing the hard work of keeping ships in top condition during deployments. That could shorten the ships’ service lives, further delaying any fleet expansion.

Yes, the Navy has a hardware problem. But its people problem is far more vexing.

The Navy’s 2024 budget, which – incredibly – is still awaiting Congressional approval, authorises the service to have 347,000 active-duty personnel. But as of January, the service actually employed just 324,599 active-duty sailors – 269,628 enlisted and 54,971 officers. That’s a shortfall of more than 22,000 people, or seven per cent.
The manpower gap means more ships with incomplete crews. It takes 84,400 enlisted sailors to fully man all the fleet’s vessels. As recently as November, however, there were just 70,700 enlisted sailors at sea – a 16 per cent shortfall.

“We found that across the fleet, the Navy is assigning fewer personnel to positions than required,” the US Government Accountability Office explained in a September report. Ships’ crews with too few sailors struggle to perform routine maintenance at sea: patching hulls, fixing machinery, keeping computers running smoothly.

Related video: Inside the US Navy's $500 Million Littoral Combat Ship (Sam Eckholm)

Sam Eckholm
Inside the US Navy's $500 Million Littoral Combat Ship
“The Navy risks not being able to maintain equipment and not achieving the equipment’s expected service life,” the GAO warned.

And where captains do perform all the required maintenance, they often do so by overworking their too-small crews. “According to sailors on the ships we visited, increased workloads can lead to fatigue risks to readiness, and low morale,” the GAO found. And low morale can drive sailors out of the fleet at the ends of their enlistments, further exacerbating the manpower shortfall.

It’s a mess. And the Navy is scrambling to fix it as it awaits much-delayed Congressional action on its 2024 and 2025 budgets. As an expedient, the fleet deliberately neglects entire classes of warships that are scheduled for imminent retirement. The fleet’s few remaining Ticonderoga-class cruisers – 1980s stalwarts that have struggled with outdated and unreliable hulls and machinery – are sailing with practically skeleton crews.

Altogether, the 11 cruisers need 5,100 enlisted sailors. But according to the GAO, they actually have just 3,900 – a gap of more than a third.

How the Navy got into this predicament is complex. The COVID pandemic interrupted recruiting. Post-COVID, the US economy quickly recovered to nearly full employment, with monthly unemployment rates hovering around three percent. Less slack in the labor market means fewer young people finding their way into military service.

Moreover, one key demographic – young men – is less enthusiastic about joining the military. Navy Times cited a study that found just 11 percent of men between the ages of 16 and 21 were interested in military service in 2021, down from 22 percent in 2014.

The Navy’s not alone in its struggle to hire. With the exception of the Marine Corps, all the US military services – even the quasi-military US Military Sealift Command – have fallen short of recruiting goals in recent years. Even the Navy’s industrial base is grappling with a labor crisis and, as a result, falling behind on the production of new ships.

To solve the manpower crisis over the medium term, the Navy is assigning more sailors to its recruiting command – and boosting enlistment bonuses and educational benefits. But arguably the biggest factor in the naval enlistment shortfalls – competition from well-paying civilian jobs – is entirely outside the Navy’s control. Enlistments will improve when the economy worsens.

In the meantime, the Navy plans to cheat. The service expects to ask for nearly 15,000 fewer funded billets as part of its 2025 budget: in essence, eliminating jobs it can’t fill. But where the billets will come from is critical. If fleet leaders reduce at-sea manning without actually redesigning ships to function with smaller crews, they’ll just paper over the manpower problem.

Ships will still break while underway … or wear out years ahead of their planned decommissioning dates. And the Navy’s ambition for a bigger fleet will continue to founder.

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/28/china-navy-us-royal-buildup-taiwan-strait-missiles/

Tom Sharpe
China’s navy is now growing at terrifying speed
Like a chess game where one player keeps getting more and more pieces



tmg.video.placeholder.alt QRq-_ImJnxg
Tom Sharpe
29 May 2024 9:32am
Tom Sharpe
Four days ago, Exercise Joint Sword finished, an annual exercise by the Chinese armed forces that sees increasing numbers of Chinese ships and aircraft encircle Taiwan. This year China described it as “strong punishment” in response to the inauguration of Taiwan’s newly elected President Lai – the candidate Beijing did not want to win. Forty-six People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships encircled the island and 82 of the 111 aircraft detected violated the Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), the highest count on record.


Meanwhile the PLAN has just produced the first of a new class of corvette, taking less than a year to build it.

Whether improved global influence, economic growth, countering US hegemony or increasing national security and sovereignty is President Xi Jinping’s priority, the protection and expansion of trade is a golden thread that runs through all these themes. Recent events, in different ways, all support this objective.

Putin’s war in Ukraine, although existential to Ukrainians, will be seen through Xi’s lens as a useful drain on Western resources. The encircling of Taiwan shows ever-improving military cohesion which in turn increases the demand signal to the US and others to consider ‘what if?’

On the back of this, China’s military build-up continues at a remarkable pace. China is currently building the equivalent of the entire Royal Navy every two years. It was recently reported in these pages that they have built the first of a new class of stealth corvette in under a year. The US Navy’s equivalent, the Littoral Combat Ship, took four years (and is so useless that some are being paid off after only five years at sea). America’s new frigate, although bigger and more complex (assumption), will take seven years from laying down to sea trials. The Royal Navy’s equivalent, the Type 26 Frigate, about five (that is from keel being laid to trials. The timeline from ‘concept’ to ‘operational’ is much longer). Our industrial capacity to build ships is being outstripped by a factor of five.


Corvettes are interesting in their own right. They generally sit somewhere between offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) and frigates in terms of size and armament (although the Thaon di Revel class Italian ‘OPV’, which is as big as a British frigate and more heavily armed, proves that there is no universal convention when it comes to classifying warships). Normal, small corvettes are not limited by their ability to carry weapons, it’s more that they can’t fight as well in bad weather (though they can usually cross oceans), they don’t have the crew numbers to be able to multi-task and they lack the power generation, connectivity and bandwidth to contribute to the wider picture in the way destroyers and above can. Because they are small, they are also less flexible and adaptable over their lifespan.

Start putting expensive weapons and sensors in corvettes and you quickly have a ship inherently limited by these factors but that costs nearly as much as a frigate or destroyer. This is why the Royal Navy has never considered them. In fact, for the duration of my service, the word was forbidden for fear that it could be seized upon by the Treasury as a cheap alternative to ‘proper’ warfighting ships. The French have come to the same conclusion.

But the Chinese got into the corvette game in 2012, building 79 of their Type 056 of which 50 went to the PLAN, 22 to their coastguard and seven were exported. Then in 2021 they stopped. Maybe they thought that these ships were too small to project power globally but not survivable in a conflict closer to home – the classic ‘corvette trap’.

That they have started building ships in this space again suggests they’ve realised two things. First, there is a huge swathe of global maritime activity between coastal peacetime operations and high-intensity warfighting in which a corvette has utility. This is the zone in which 99 per cent of naval operations take place. Posturing around Taiwan, operations in the South China Sea and further afield off, say, Africa are all viable in a smaller hull leaving your larger ships to prepare for the 1 per cent. You wouldn’t want corvettes near the Taiwan Strait if the missiles are flying but then when that happens, you wouldn’t want any kind of surface ship there either.

A US Arleigh Burke class destroyer launches a Tomahawk cruise missile. It costs $420m to fully load a US destroyer with missiles
A US Arleigh Burke class destroyer launches a Tomahawk cruise missile. It costs $420m to fully load a US destroyer with missiles Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Carlos M Vazquez II/US Navy via Reuters
Second, China is building corvettes because it can. If you want your fleet to have balance and mass, as any ambitious navy does, eventually you are going to cross a threshold where quantity starts to deliver a quality all of its own. You can add these hulls to the coastguard fleet and China’s thousands of non-fishing fishing vessels around the world and you have a considerable global maritime network to help assure your global trade network – some of which now has teeth.

It will be interesting to see how the new corvettes are armed. One thing is certain: being in the ship-borne missile game is eye-wateringly expensive. Tyler Rogoway of the War Zone did some analysis on this recently showing that even a smaller missile in the US inventory, the RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile, costs $950,000 a round. Tomahawk land attack missiles are $1,890,000 per shot whilst the highest end SM-3 Block IIA used to engage ballistic missile warheads in space is $28,700,000 each. It costs no less than $420m to fully load up an Arleigh Burke class destroyer’s vertical launch cells with a sensible mix of the above and others I haven’t listed. That’s more than it cost to build a British Type 23 Frigate.

It’s clear why so much money is being diverted into developing cheaper methods of knocking out multiple drones and slower missiles but these cheaper methods will forever remain close-in systems. If you want range, missiles (and a large ammo bill) are still the answer.

My bet is that this emerging class of Chinese warship will be fast, have a mix of highly capable missiles, guns and emerging technology. The corvettes will be perfect for trialling new equipment and as an added bonus will provide operational experience to the big ship commanding officers of the future, something that current Chinese destroyer and frigate captains reportedly lack.

Back to the top. Chinese engagements of the last few days are a continuum of the norm: meetings with Putin to see how their invasion of Ukraine can be sustained; Exercise Joint Sword to impose themselves locally and regionally; a tri-lateral diplomacy meeting with Japan and South Korea to discuss trade options. Whether it’s draining western resources, bullying at sea and maritime trade assurance (or denial), then corvettes can contribute very handily – and long before the shooting starts.

If I was head of the PLAN I’d be lobbying hard for 50 of the new stealth corvettes. I’d be delighted that I could get them five times faster than anyone in Nato, and I wouldn’t be worrying too much about the bill either.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwMU0T1AxZg

[Crafty_Dog]

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-92424-pr-tour-sours-as-ukraines?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-666c6a72-2d5f-418e-b04c-71e98c3b0443

[ccp]

https://www.westernjournal.com/shipbuilder-discovers-vessels-provided-u-s-navy-may-intentionally-sabotaged-production/

[Crafty_Dog]

Reminds me of the ships that our Constitution had in mind with "letters of marque".


https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/auxiliary-cruisers-now-more-than?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=247761&post_id=149638909&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=z2120&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

[Crafty_Dog]

Will Schryver
@imetatronink


 Telling Fact

Two US destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean launched TWELVE SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors today in a futile bid to stem the tide of a huge Iranian ballistic missile salvo.

You know how many SM-3 missiles the US produces each year?

TWELVE.

Me: of those 12, how many actually shot down an Iranian missile?

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-u-s-navys-missile-production-problem-looks-dire/


Compared to the previous year’s projections, the 2025 White House defense budget cuts previously planned procurement of SM-3 IB over the next five years from 153 to zero—saving $1.9 billion. However, these savings are not reinvested in SM-3 Block IIA production, of which quantities remain stagnant at 12 missiles annually over the next five years.

Twelve missiles. Per year.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://notthebee.com/article/100m-navy-ship-with-diversity-hire-lesbian-captain-runs-aground-catches-fire-sinks?fbclid=IwY2xjawFxVB5leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfd67t9zUfkjyMzuzRUpWqxYyNlkz6RrAlIr04W6amR-7WzTg_KETOn7-w_aem_Z-cgDi7TT9hO-p1m1NnARQ