Mexico-US matters

[G M]

Some thoughts on the recent noise, started by AG Barr and echoed by many others about going military in Mexico blah blah.

Profoundly foolish IMHO.

Note the Zeihan 2 above wherein he makes the point about Sinaloa and others being BUSINESSES with an attitude of "don't shit where you eat", thus enabling them to integrate into the local fabric.  Witness the "apology" and turning over those responsible for the attack on the four black Americans in Matamoros.

Our military would have no fg idea at whom to shoot, and would be disrupting lots of business "understandings".  When blended with the STRONG traditional Mexican hostility to American interventions, the result would be chaos.

Note too Zeihan's comment about NG Jalisco going full Chicago in Phoenix and elsewhere.   Few people realize just how deeply we ALREADY are penetrated, nor of the quasi-military capabilities of the Cartels.

My understanding is that the Cartels now make more money on human trafficking/the illegal alien trade than on drugs.    The first order of business must be to fg fully seize control of our border and shut down the illegal alien trade.   Invading Mexico simply not necessary or wise.

Where are our top Libertarian thinkers advocating that we legalize human trafficking to deprive the cartels of money?

[Crafty_Dog]

Silenced by the bitch slap of reality.

[G M]

Mexico and the cartels are the enemy of the American people, as is Deep State Barr.

Some thoughts on the recent noise, started by AG Barr and echoed by many others about going military in Mexico blah blah.

Profoundly foolish IMHO.

Note the Zeihan 2 above wherein he makes the point about Sinaloa and others being BUSINESSES with an attitude of "don't shit where you eat", thus enabling them to integrate into the local fabric.  Witness the "apology" and turning over those responsible for the attack on the four black Americans in Matamoros.

Our military would have no fg idea at whom to shoot, and would be disrupting lots of business "understandings".  When blended with the STRONG traditional Mexican hostility to American interventions, the result would be chaos.

Note too Zeihan's comment about NG Jalisco going full Chicago in Phoenix and elsewhere.   Few people realize just how deeply we ALREADY are penetrated, nor of the quasi-military capabilities of the Cartels.

My understanding is that the Cartels now make more money on human trafficking/the illegal alien trade than on drugs.    The first order of business must be to fg fully seize control of our border and shut down the illegal alien trade.   Invading Mexico simply not necessary or wise.

[Crafty_Dog]

Mexico Can Get Worse
By JOHN FUND
March 7, 2023 12:23 PM
Its election-integrity agency is in danger.
No one denies that our southern neighbor Mexico is plagued by drug cartels that pump fentanyl across our border, cronyism that smothers economic growth, and rampant corruption.


But one thing Mexico can be proud of is its National Electoral Institute (INE), an independent, nonpartisan but government-funded organization. It was formed in the 1990s as disgust with the country’s authoritarian rule and the accompanying voter fraud became so pervasive that reforms were implemented. Mexico’s transition from one-party rule to the peaceful transfer of power to an opposition party in 2000 was enabled in large part by the trust people had in the INE.

But Mexico’s term-limited president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is trying to neuter the INE so he can ensure that a loyal sycophant will succeed him when he leaves office next year. His plan would slash the INE’s budget and limit its supervisory powers. Some 85 percent of its staff would have to be let go.

That could have catastrophic effects on whether a future election result stands. INE official Ciro Murayama told the Atlantic magazine that “the law establishes that if 20 percent of the polling stations in one election are not installed, that election should be annulled. It never happened in our history.” A lack of staffing could lead to such an annulment for the first time in over 100 years.

López Obrador is deadly serious about steamrolling his plan into law. He has nursed a grudge against INE ever since it presided over his narrow loss in the 2006 presidential election. The Mexican Senate voted 72 to 50 last month to curb the INE, prompting opponents of the bill to challenge it in the Supreme Court.

Mexicans are outraged, with more than 500,000 people jamming the streets of Mexico City in February to protest. López Obrador, a leftist demagogue, accused protest leaders of having “been part of the corruption in Mexico, they have belonged to the narco-state.”


Ironically, López Obrador has also descended to gaslighting his fellow citizens by declaring that the highly respected INE has ignored “the stuffing of ballot boxes, falsification of election records, and vote buying.”

“Let them go cheat somewhere else, they just want to keep stealing votes,” he said.

In reality, Mexico has an election system that is far more secure than ours. To obtain voter credentials in Mexico, a citizen must present a photo, write a legible signature, and give a thumbprint. To guard against tampering, the voter card includes a picture with a hologram covering it, a magnetic strip, and a serial number. In the United States, at a time of heightened security and rules that require citizens to show identification to travel or enter a building, states representing half of the country’s population don’t require any form of documentation in order to vote.


 
It’s encouraging that liberal groups such as the Brennan Center, which never met a voter-identification law it could support, have come to the defense of the INE’s anti-fraud and honest-election mission. A strong critic of the often-preposterous election claims of Donald Trump, it nonetheless noted that “the attack by a leftist president on Mexico’s independent electoral body is a reminder that resurgent authoritarianism can come from both the right and the left.”

Others on the left have fallen into a party line. The U.S. socialist magazine Jacobin called criticism that López Obrador is undermining democracy “a baseless charge.” The INE “is widely recognized to be riddled with excess expenditure and a top-heavy bureaucracy,” it added. “The new law simply mandates similar cost-saving measures to those that the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has applied to other governmental departments.”

Cleta Mitchell, a legal fellow at the Conservative Partnership Institute in Washington, says Mexico’s struggle mirrors the one that blocked President Biden’s plan to effectively nationalize U.S. elections. Biden’s plan almost became law in 2021 but was blocked by renegade Democratic senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.

“In the 1990s, Mexico had a set of laws enacted by one party to ensure their continued rule,” Mitchell told me. “That’s what I think about whenever I hear about another one of our blue states enacting laws to protect their power permanently. It is nothing short of tyrannical. And it is happening all across our country today.

[G M]

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/03/mexicos-socialist-president-lopez-obrador-threatens-to-interfere-in-american-elections-announces-plan-to-ensure-not-one-vote-goes-to-republicans/

[ccp]

sound like he is working for the cartels ! 

you won't see any Mexico -  Biden/Democrat  election interference discussed in detail  on the beady eyed Vanderbilt's Democrat propaganda show. (well there might be quick mention but the countered with a well placed Democrat operative who will then immediately discount it - so white hair can say he did mention it and claim he is a real journalist and be able to move on with Democrat talking points.

I watched part of his "town hall" on fetanyl

The part I did see , the name Biden never came up and a bunch of people pretending the open border has zero to do with it.

all drugs flown floated here and sent in by Fedex. 

[Crafty_Dog]

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/03/20/invading-mexico-is-yet-another-terrible-idea-n2620857

[Crafty_Dog]

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico
undefined and Latin America Analyst at RANE
Carmen Colosi
Latin America Analyst at RANE, Stratfor
undefined and Global Security analyst with RANE
Caroline Hammer
Global Security analyst with RANE, Stratfor
12 MIN READMar 21, 2023 | 21:21 GMT


The recent armed attack on four U.S. citizens in the Mexican border city of Matamoros, Tamaulipas state, illustrated well-documented security risks in Mexico's many crime hotspots, where gang and cartel violence disrupts daily life and hinders business operations. But while the demonstrated risks are nothing new, much about the incident was out of the ordinary, including the abnormal targeting of American civilians, the subsequent calls by U.S. Republicans for military intervention, and the cartel's highly out-of-character note apologizing for the whole affair. The oddities of the incident and the response to it by the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm and expand on long-standing security, political and logistical risks from organized crime in Mexico.

The Attack
On Friday, March 3, the four American citizens entered Matamoros from Brownsville, Texas, in order to receive cosmetic surgery. A few hours after crossing the border, armed gunmen in trucks shot at their vehicle while they drove through the city, leading to a crash, after which the gunmen forced them out of their vehicle and into one of their trucks. During the incident, a stray bullet killed a Mexican woman at the scene of the initial attack. In a video of the attack that subsequently circulated on social media, three of the Americans appeared unconscious. Over the next few days, word of the kidnapping spread in U.S. media and the FBI announced a $50,000 reward for the return of the victims. Mexican authorities discovered two of the victims alive and two dead on March 7 in a cabin southeast of Matamoros. On March 8, the Mexican government deployed 200 members of the army and 100 members of the National Guard to Matamoros to strengthen security in the border region. Based on the location of the incident, it was clear that the Gulf Cartel — once one of Mexico's most powerful criminal groups — was likely behind the attack. This appeared to be confirmed on March 9, when five men were left beaten and tied up in the street, along with a narco banner apologizing for the attacks signed ''the Scorpions,'' a faction of the Gulf Cartel. The banner claimed the men were the perpetrators of the attack and that the attack was a mistake ''caused by lack of discipline.''

The Cartel's Response
Mexican cartels are widely understood to not want to target U.S. citizens or tourists from other countries, except in circumstances where they're involved in drug trafficking. While the response to the murder or kidnapping of Mexican citizens or migrants from poor countries would barely make national Mexican news, security risks to Americans (and other, usually Western, foreigners) create an outsized backlash that cartels view as simply bad for business and thus not worth it. This was acutely demonstrated by the response to the Matamoros attack and kidnapping; the level of media coverage, the FBI reward and the hundreds of newly-deployed Mexican troops all make cartel operations more difficult and threaten their ability to make money.

The Gulf Cartel faction's apology note — an uncharacteristic action for a group with a penchant for extreme violence — also demonstrates the Scorpions leaders' immediate recognition that their people made a mistake. Criminal groups elsewhere in Mexico have similarly learned this lesson, with massive security deployments to Baja California Sur state in 2017 and Quintana Roo state in 2021 and 2022 following violence in tourist areas that killed and injured foreigners. Cartels know the Mexican government will devote ample resources to ensure the safety of foreigners and particularly tourists, and they'd prefer to avoid such encroachment into their territory.

Intentions aside, the attack and murder of two Americans in Matamoros was not the first incident that illustrates that mistakes can and do occur. In January 2020, gunmen likely belonging to the Northeast Cartel in Ciudad Mier, another border town in the Tamaulipas state, attacked an American family and killed their 13-year-old child. The attack may have occurred because the perpetrators believed the family's SUV resembled the SUVs used by rival cartels. Mexican cartels vary in size and structure, but while all are hierarchical, they tend to also be decentralized, providing lower-ranking members the leeway to launch rash attacks to gain their leadership's approval, in retaliation for violence by rivals, or for personal financial gain. When cartel attacks on foreign tourists do occur, they are most likely cases of mistaken identity in which cartels think the victims belong to a rival cartel, making such incidents far more likely in areas experiencing intense inter-cartel territorial struggles (Tamaulipas among them).


The Matamoros attack additionally shows how U.S. citizens and other foreigners who look like they may be locals or migrants may be at greater risk. Matamoros, like other Mexican cities and towns located near U.S. border crossings, has seen its population of migrants from other parts of the Americas surge over the last decade. In recent years, people escaping the poor security and economic conditions in Haiti have made up an increasing portion of Matamoros' migrant community. In February, NGOs estimated a total of 1,000 Haitian migrants were in Matamoros. Cartels and smaller local gangs commonly target migrants for kidnapping for ransom, human trafficking, or to recruit (and sometimes outright force) them into their criminal enterprises, including drug trafficking.

The four Americans who were targeted in the recent attack were Black and it is possible the cartel members racially profiled them, believing they were migrants or Haitian traffickers encroaching on the Scorpion's territory (as Mexican and U.S. authorities reportedly theorized). The possibility that the gunmen racially profiled the Americans prior to the attack has already fueled fear among the city's migrants, leading 100 Haitian asylum-seekers to flee one of Matamoros' camps following the attack. Hispanic and Latino U.S. citizens have long faced similar risks in Mexico, and the Matamoros attack demonstrates that Black tourists and business travelers may be similarly at greater risk of a mistaken identity attack in Mexico's high-violence regions, especially those with large Haitian migrant populations. 

The Mexican Government's Response
The Mexican government's quick reaction to the kidnapping illustrates the trend of Mexican authorities conducting a highly public and elevated security response when U.S. citizens or other tourists are victims of violent crime, given the importance of tourism to the Mexican economy. Tourism accounted for just over 7% of Mexico's total GDP in 2021 as the country attracted over 31 million visitors that year. The Mexican government will likely continue to prioritize sending security forces to areas where tourism serves as the lifeblood of the local economy (like Quintana Roo, Baja California and Baja California Sur) in an effort to maintain the image of low criminal activity in these popular tourist destinations, despite Mexico's overall high rate of violent crime.

But the kidnapping of the four U.S. citizens is unlikely to change Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's overall approach to containing cartel violence in his country. The Lopez Obrador administration has never clearly outlined a security strategy since taking office in December 2018. But the president's catchphrase of approaching cartels with ''hugs, not bullets'' has reflected his government's broadly non-interventionist approach to cartels' presence. As such, Mexico's security forces rarely seek to proactively combat cartel influence, opting instead to simply keep violent crime statistics down in tourist areas and major cities. This strategy relies heavily on the use of a militarized policing force created under his presidency called the National Guard, which has absorbed units and officers from the Federal Police, Military Police and Naval Police. The Lopez Obrador government will almost certainly continue to utilize the National Guard to attempt to curb migration patterns, protect critical infrastructure and ensure increased safety in tourist destinations. But these areas of emphasis will likely continue to leave certain areas vulnerable to the influence of cartels — especially in states where rival cartels are fighting for control over territory, which include Tamaulipas (where the four U.S. citizens were kidnapped), Michoacan, Mexico State and Guerrero.

The Lopez Obrador administration's reaction to the Matamoros attack will also raise the risk of protests in Mexico by showcasing the government's continued failure to address security threats facing Mexican citizens. Many Mexicans have already expressed anger on social media over their government's swift response to the kidnapping of U.S. citizens, which stands in stark contrast to the historically slow or nonexistent response to the daily kidnappings of Mexican citizens. According to data compiled by the Mexico-based Alto Al Secuestro (Association to Stop Kidnapping), there were 5,256 reported kidnappings in Mexico between December 2018 and January 2023 — an average of four per day. But Mexican authorities rarely respond to these kidnappings in a proactive manner unless U.S. citizens and other foreigners are involved.

Activists have previously organized mass protests over kidnappings in the country — most prominently in response to the kidnapping of 43 student teachers in Guerrero state in 2014, which saw some demonstrations turn violent. Against this backdrop, incidents that highlight the disparity in security reactions for foreigners and locals — like the Matamoros kidnapping — raise the risk of renewing such protests by reminding Mexican citizens of their government's apparent disregard for their safety.

The U.S. Government's Response
The United States remains highly unlikely to directly intervene in the fight against cartels in Mexico, despite Republican lawmakers' increased calls for such action following the Matamoros incident. In recent weeks, certain members of the Republican Party have used the kidnappings to criticize the Mexican government's record on security, with some — including Representative Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) — going so far as to propose legislation that would allow the U.S. military to intervene in Mexico. The draft bill would seek to designate nine of the most powerful Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, thus allowing U.S. armed forces to be dispatched to Mexico. Former U.S. President Donald Trump also suggested labeling Mexican cartels as terrorist entities, though his administration never followed through on the effort. While the legislation is currently being debated by the House Foreign Affairs Committee, it is highly unlikely to be passed as it has been criticized by Democrats and some Republicans for proposing to interfere with another country's security policy. But even on the off-chance that the bill is ratified, Lopez Obrador has indicated that his government would not cooperate with any U.S. armed forces sent to his country to contain cartel violence, stating such a deployment would ''breach Mexico's sovereignty.''

But while the United States is unlikely to respond at the federal level, U.S. state governments could make regulatory changes in an effort to push Mexico to increase security efforts. Similar violent events against U.S. citizens could spur U.S. authorities to implement increased border security measures in an effort to prevent cartel violence from spilling across the border. Such measures would most likely come from Texas Governor Greg Abbott, who previously implemented inspections along his state's border with Mexico in response to a surge in illegal border crossings in April 2022. The measures imposed by the Texan state government slowed cross-border traffic to a crawl and angered truckers, who formed a blockade at the Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge that nearly stopped traffic in both directions for three days. Economists estimated that delays from the inspections, which were only in place for less than two weeks (from April 6 to April 15), led the U.S. economy to lose an estimated $8.97 billion, with Texas alone losing $4.23 billion, as fruits and vegetables rotted in trucks. The re-implementation of such measures would risk similar logistical and financial challenges.

The United States will also likely continue to release periodic statements to further warn citizens about the dangers of traveling to Mexico. In the aftermath of the U.S. citizens' deaths in  Matamoros, ​​the U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Mexico released a statement warning the thousands of U.S. students expected to visit the country in the coming weeks for spring break to exercise caution and to avoid visiting Mexican states designated ''Do Not Travel'' on the U.S. State Department's website. The advisory is the latest in the U.S. diplomatic push to educate American citizens about the dangers of traveling in Mexico. Such statements will continue to appear in the future, particularly in reaction to U.S. citizens falling victim to violent crime.

Sticking to the Script
In Mexico's criminal landscape, there is little room for a change of course. Cartel members must always fight for their survival, lest risk being assassinated by rival criminals or arrested by authorities. The Mexican government must balance between enforcing security to keep high-priority areas safe (like economically-important tourism destinations), while still granting cartels enough leeway to stave off a larger backlash. And the U.S. government must respond verbally to threats to its citizens and provide whatever direct security assistance to Mexico that its southern neighbor will accept. Barring massive (and unlikely) changes to the economic and/or political environments in the United States and Mexico, or to the U.S. market for illegal drugs, the parties involved will be confined to these roles. Both countries' 2024 general elections provide potential wildcards in the form of opposition candidates. But for all their bluster, any new president in either country will almost certainly return to the standard script amid economic, security and political pressures.

Cartel violence is a slow-moving tragedy — Mexico's personal forever war. Organized crime bleeds the Mexican economy and contributes to poverty, even as new manufacturing facilities and tech startups improve conditions for few. Incidents like the attack on the four Americans in Matamoros, while horrific, are sadly the norm for locals in much of the country. And that grim reality is unlikely to change anytime soon. With no serious, existential threat from domestic security forces, cartels and smaller gangs will continue to threaten the lives and livelihoods of locals, foreigners and businesses alike, requiring constant vigilance as crime rates forever fluctuate between ''acceptable'' and ''catastrophic.''

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amlo-criticizes-dea-for-unauthorized-operations-in-mexico/?utm_source=jeeng&utm_medium=email&trigger=click

[ccp]

How dare him criticize those in the US who want to stop illegals from coming here

by the millions and the drugs:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-president-tells-florida-hispanics-174848052.html

sounds like he is in the pocket of cartel money being made off the illegas

HE IS ENEMY OF THE US AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED
at least on this topic

[G M]

Mexico is an enemy country.

How dare him criticize those in the US who want to stop illegals from coming here

by the millions and the drugs:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-president-tells-florida-hispanics-174848052.html

sounds like he is in the pocket of cartel money being made off the illegas

HE IS ENEMY OF THE US AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED
at least on this topic

[Crafty_Dog]

"Pobre Mexico.  Tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca a Los Estados Unidos"   

Porfirio Diaz

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amlo-promises-justice-for-nuevo-laredo-extrajudicial-killings/

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jun/19/public-backs-gop-calls-us-military-attack-mexican-/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=subscriber&utm_campaign=newsalert&utm_content=newsalert&utm_term=newsalert&bt_ee=HHWLvgi5%2FyO%2BRehVKc%2BkBg5IiyUBAZ4918HCbk81dsTffGVKKmGmywjj9UEcBqky&bt_ts=1687264740696

As emotionally satisfying as this sounds, it is not at all clear to me that this is a good idea.

[G M]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jun/19/public-backs-gop-calls-us-military-attack-mexican-/?utm_source=Boomtrain&utm_medium=subscriber&utm_campaign=newsalert&utm_content=newsalert&utm_term=newsalert&bt_ee=HHWLvgi5%2FyO%2BRehVKc%2BkBg5IiyUBAZ4918HCbk81dsTffGVKKmGmywjj9UEcBqky&bt_ts=1687264740696

As emotionally satisfying as this sounds, it is not at all clear to me that this is a good idea.

Better secure the border first.

[Crafty_Dog]

AMEN!!!

I have reached out to a BP friend for his thoughts on this.

IIRC he previously commented to me that declaring the Cartels to be terrorist organization would backfire by giving fresh legal basis for asylum claims.

High risks with this idea:

How do identify who to shoot? 

What about likely STRONG nationalist anger from Mexican people?

[G M]

AMEN!!!

I have reached out to a BP friend for his thoughts on this.

IIRC he previously commented to me that declaring the Cartels to be terrorist organization would backfire by giving fresh legal basis for asylum claims.

High risks with this idea:

How do identify who to shoot? 

What about likely STRONG nationalist anger from Mexican people?

The cartel corruption runs through every element of Mexican society. Much like our own corruption.

We need to unfcuk ourselves first.

[Crafty_Dog]

Indeed.  Mexican Presidents get rich by getting paid by rival cartels to go after other cartels.

[G M]

Indeed.  Mexican Presidents get rich by getting paid by rival cartels to go after other cartels.

Exactly.

[Crafty_Dog]

BTW at my recent seminar in Mexico City I was asked about the name for my knife system "Chupacabra" (roughly "meaning sucks blood of goats"-- something of a vampire like demon of semi-canine appearance) because in Mexico it was the nickname for now former President Salinas de Gortari.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/community/is-amlo-that-bad-or-that-good-a-perspective-from-our-ceo/?utm_source=jeeng&utm_medium=email&trigger=click

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/culture/who-is-santa-muerte/

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caFtIPwNDlI

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.judicialwatch.org/no-cbp-outbound-inspections/?utm_source=deployer&utm_medium=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=tipsheet&utm_term=members

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amlo-unveils-first-interoceanic-railway-car-in-veracruz/?utm_source=jeeng&utm_medium=email&trigger=click

[Crafty_Dog]

Mexico: Opposition Coalition Solidifies Around Single Figure
Aug 22, 2023 | 16:16 GMT





What Happened: President of the Chamber of Deputies Santiago Creel announced that he is dropping out of the race for the nomination of the opposition coalition's presidential nominee and put his support behind National Action Party Senator Xochitl Galvez Ruiz, La Jornada reported on Aug. 21.

Why It Matters: Galvez Ruiz, a relative political newcomer, could potentially satiate Mexico's strong anti-incumbent sentiment, while having a single strong candidate could also improve the opposition coalition's chance at winning Mexico's presidency. While Galvez Ruiz has voiced support for the government's existing social welfare programs, she has also pushed for an improved healthcare system and better employment opportunities for youth. Her strong pro-business stance will likely lead investors in the energy sector, and more specifically renewables, to look favorably upon her candidacy.

Background: The Broad Front for Mexico opposition coalition narrowed down the opposition candidates to three people on Aug. 15: Galvez Ruiz, who is currently polling at a 38.3% approval rating; the next highest opposition candidate is Beatriz Paredes of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), who has 26% of the vote and finally Santiago Creel with just over 20% of the vote.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/special-report-how-mexican-narcos-use-remittances-to-wire-u-s-drug-profits-home/ar-AA1frmf5?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=c01fa62f12954c4a940c7b29911cedf7&ei=68&fbclid=IwAR0BPMoGQ-oQJc5p-cHH2XXx7e7SFMU9xJ9utXFg7R5ODPn2Q8PxJUyh_OU

[Crafty_Dog]

https://supportwin.co/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIq-eHvO-TgQMVPRaICR0wFQHAEAEYASAAEgJcnfD_BwE

[Crafty_Dog]

Mexico: Morena Nominates Sheinbaum as Presidential Candidate
Sep 7, 2023 | 15:25 GMT





What Happened: Former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum secured the ruling Morena party's presidential nomination with 39.4% of the preferences, El Pais reported on Sept. 6. However, Former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who garnered 25.8% of the preferences, urged Morena to conduct a fresh selection of its 2024 presidential candidate, citing alleged irregularities in the polling process.

Why It Matters: Sheinbaum's win guarantees that the Morena presidential nominee will continue current President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's economic and political vision of high spending on welfare and major public infrastructure projects. However, Sheinbaum may pursue more clean energy projects (likely under state-owned energy companies) in adherence to her policies as Mexico City mayor. Lopez Obrador is highly likely to serve as a special advisor to Sheinbaum should she win in 2024 and will likely maintain a high profile in the media in an effort to maintain control over Mexico's political arena. Meanwhile, Ebrard's comments signal that he may break from Morena.

Background: Mexico will hold general elections in June 2024. The Broad Front for Mexico opposition coalition chose Xochitl Galvez as its presidential nominee on Aug. 30, essentially guaranteeing that Mexico will elect its first female president in 2024.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/mexico-ayotzinapa/2023-09-26/keeping-secrets-us-silence-about-ayotzinapa?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=820cdb21-cf17-4d21-9a31-cb3ef50342dc

[DougMacG]

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/mexico-ayotzinapa/2023-09-26/keeping-secrets-us-silence-about-ayotzinapa?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=820cdb21-cf17-4d21-9a31-cb3ef50342dc

Wow that's creepy. Seems to be a pattern that we don't take care of children.

[Crafty_Dog]

This affair has been a big deal in Mexico.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://mtntactical.com/knowledge/designating-mexican-cartels-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-implications-and-challenges/?utm_source=Mountain+Tactical+Institute&utm_campaign=eadab58ec2-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_11_05_08_34_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-337f701e76-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D&mc_cid=eadab58ec2&mc_eid=5a5a04a3b5

Designating Mexican Cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations: Implications and Challenges
November 27, 2023 by Charlie Bausman


Recent proposals by politicians, attorney generals, and the State Department to label Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) has far-reaching implications, from law enforcement strategies to international politics and economics. This move could reshape U.S.-Mexico relations, impact border security, and influence the global fight against drug trafficking.

The push for such designations often cites the cartels’ involvement in acts that resemble those of traditional terrorist organizations, such as carrying out violent attacks, destabilizing regions, and challenging governmental authority. This topic has been further highlighted US by the incredible increase in fentanyl use in the United States, overwhelming violence within Mexico, and border security/immigration issues between the two nations.

However, there have been significant concerns and counterarguments against this approach. Critics argue that labeling cartels as terrorist organizations could complicate U.S.-Mexico relations, impact economic ties, and potentially lead to unintended consequences in law enforcement and immigration policies.

Current State of the Drug Trade in the US
The American War on Drugs began in 1971 by President Nixon, and the DEA was established shortly thereafter. In recent years, annual spending on anti-drug trafficking often exceeds $40 billion and over a trillion since it’s inception. Despite these efforts, the drug trade has grown exponentially, leading to an equally meteoric rise in addiction and overdose deaths.


Source: ChatGPT

Source: ChatGPT
The fentanyl epidemic in the U.S., with drugs predominantly supplied by Mexican cartels, is a major public health concern. For Americans aged 18-45, the leading cause of death is fentanyl and is responsible for 70% of US drug overdose deaths.

The drug is reported to be responsible for 71,000 deaths in 2021, and 73,000 deaths in 2022. From 2016 to 2021, the rate of drug overdose deaths involving fentanyl increased from 5.7 per 100,000 people to 21.6 per 100,000​​. Drug seizures of fentanyl at the border have also increased 300% in the past two years, indicating the incredible volume proliferation of the drug.

 


Source: US Dept of Commerce
Cartel Violence in Mexico
Cartels in Mexico have led to an astounding increase in violence, most dramatically viewed by the homicide rate. The Mexico Peace Index found that the national organized crime rat has risen 64.2% in the past years. Homicides related to organized crime have taken over 20,000 lives annually for the past five years, and total annual homicides average approximately 35,000 in the same time frame.


Corruption is rampant amongst Mexican governmental entities that would serve as the front line of anti-trafficking efforts.

Law enforcement, the judicial system, the prison system, and the political system are regarded as compromised by cartel corruption efforts. Bribery is commonplace, and both local and national police forces were considered so tainted in the fight against the cartels that it was put into the hands of the Mexican military (where there have also been numerous implications of corruption).

Even the former Mexican President, Enrique Pena Nieto, was accused of receiving bribes from the Sinoloan Cartel during the US trial of famed drug lord ‘El Chapo’ Guzman.

Mexican journalism on the drug trade is inherently risky, leading to the murder of 76 journalists in the country since 2017. This is greater than the total of all of Latin America in the same time frame.

While reliable statistics on drug addiction and overdoses in Mexico are more challenging to acquire, it has been noted by several organizations that both have spiked in recent years, primarily due to fentanyl.

The Call for Cartels to be Classified as FTO’s
Former President Trump has consistently campaigned on naming Cartels as FTO’s, and called on the military to plan for strikes on Cartel leadership and infrastructure, despite rejections from his Secretary of Defense and Joint Chief of Staff.

Following the March, 2023 kidnapping of four American citizens and the deaths of two of the kidnapped, the FTO debate was renewed. Senator Lindsey Graham spearheaded the Ending the Notorious, Aggressive, and Remorseless Criminal Organization and Syndicates (NARCOS) Act along with five other GOP Senators. This was supported by a letter sent from twenty-one Attorneys General.

In the current Republican primary run, many of the candidates have stated they would support moves to classify cartels as FTO’s and the use of military force against them.

In response, Secretary of State Blinken made public statements that the department, responsible for the classification, would consider the move.

Potential Drawbacks
While the designation of Mexican cartels as FTOs could provide additional tools for combating their activities, it also carries significant risks and complexities, particularly in diplomatic and legal arenas.

Diplomatic Strain:
Such a designation could strain diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Mexico. Mexico might view this as an infringement on its sovereignty and an overstep into its internal affairs. This could hinder cooperation in areas like drug enforcement, immigration, and border security.

Impact on Trade and Economy:
Designating these cartels as FTOs could impact the vast trade relationship between the U.S. and Mexico. It could lead to stricter scrutiny of transactions, affecting businesses and economies on both sides of the border.

Legal and Law Enforcement Complications:
This designation would allow for more aggressive law enforcement actions against these groups. However, it could also complicate legal proceedings, potentially leading to broader interpretations of what constitutes support or association with these cartels.

Impact on Immigration:
Individuals fleeing violence in Mexico might be implicated or associated with these organizations, complicating asylum claims or leading to unjust treatment of immigrants and refugees.

Potential Escalation of Violence:
The designation might escalate violence, as cartels might respond with increased aggression both within Mexico and potentially against U.S. interests.

Challenges in Targeting Financial Networks:
While the designation aims to disrupt the financial networks of these organizations, it could also inadvertently affect legitimate businesses and individuals who might be unknowingly connected or coerced to do business with the cartels.

It Might Not Change Anything
The demand side of the drug trade remains incredibly strong in the US. The Commission on Combating Synthetic Opioid Trafficking stated the fentanyl crisis cannot be resolved without curbing addiction in the US, fueling the demand for illegal opioids.

While FTO enables financial tools to freeze cartel assets, experts say there is little to no gain in financial enforcement measures compared to the measures already in place.

Succession Issues: Would military action cause meaningful results in reducing the drug trade, or just cause further de-centralization and newer, more extreme organizations?

Potential Benefits
FTO designation would enable “Targeted actions against cartel leaders,” in the context of law enforcement and counter-terrorism operations. This refers to focused efforts to disrupt or neutralize the individuals at the highest levels of criminal organizations. These actions can take various forms and are typically more strategic and precise compared to broader law enforcement operations. Here’s a detailed look at what this could entail:

Military-Style Operations

Precision Strikes: In some cases, especially under a terrorist designation, military assets might be used to carry out precision strikes aimed at eliminating key cartel figures. This could include drone strikes or specialized military raids.

Special Forces Deployment: Deployment of special forces or specialized law enforcement units to capture or neutralize high-value targets in hostile environments.

Enhanced Surveillance and Intelligence

Advanced Surveillance: Utilizing sophisticated surveillance technologies, including satellite imagery, intercepted communications, and cyber surveillance, to track the movements and activities of cartel leaders.

Intelligence Sharing: Increased sharing of intelligence between agencies and international partners to build a comprehensive understanding of cartel operations and hierarchy.

Financial and Legal Measures

Asset Freezing and Seizures: Targeting the financial assets of cartel leaders, including bank accounts, properties, and other investments, both domestically and internationally.

Legal Prosecutions: Focusing legal efforts on building strong cases against cartel leaders, potentially leading to extradition requests and trials in jurisdictions with stringent anti-terrorism and organized crime laws.

Targeted Sanctions

Individual Sanctions: Imposing sanctions on cartel leaders, including travel bans and prohibiting international financial transactions, to limit their global reach and access to resources.
Collaborative International Operations

Joint Task Forces: Forming joint task forces with other countries, especially those where cartels have a significant presence, to conduct operations aimed at capturing or neutralizing cartel leaders.

Extradition Agreements: Strengthening extradition agreements to facilitate the transfer of cartel leaders to face charges in countries with the legal framework to prosecute them effectively.

U.S. Firearms and Citizens in the Drug Trade
A critical aspect of the drug trade is the use of U.S.-sourced firearms as currency by Mexican cartels. The U.S. is a significant source of the firearms used by these cartels, often traded for drugs. This cycle fuels violence both in Mexico and the U.S. Designating cartels as FTOs could lead to stricter controls and monitoring of firearms exports and transactions, potentially disrupting this aspect of the trade. However, it may also drive these activities underground, making them harder to track and combat.

While there is a commonly held belief that cartels are responsible for the transit of drugs into the US, Customs and Border Patrol statistics report that 86% of convicted traffickers are US citizens, and 0.02% of illegal migrants possess any fentanyl whatsoever. The use of US citizens in trafficking further complicates how FTO enforcement would be handled by law enforcement agencies.

Retribution – Impact on US Law Enforcement & Military Personnel
Should US law enforcement and military personnel become actively involved in targeting cartel personnel under an FTO designation authority, the ramifications are unclear.

Unlike actions against terror organizations elsewhere, the geographic proximity enables the cartel violence to easily and rapidly strike back. Law Enforcement officers and their families work and live in the towns and cities along the border and could be targeted. US-based Mexcian gangs involved in the drug trade could be co-opted to target officers and military personnel nationwide.

Approximately 25 million US tourists travel to Mexico annually, and 1.6 million US citizens live Mexico. US diplomats, business representatives, expats, and tourists could be similarly targeted within Mexico.

The unanswerable question is would cartels react to US actions with the same level of violence exacted on Mexican law enforcement, military, and civilian populations? With an estimated 175,000 active cartel members, the potential for violence is severe.

Economic Impacts
Designating cartels as FTOs could profoundly affect business relations between the U.S. and Mexico. Mexico is the US’s second-largest trade partner (second to China), with 600 billion dollars in total annual trade value. US foreign investment in Mexico is over 100 billion annually.

Of note, Mexico is the fifth largest automobile exporter in the world with factories of all major US-based automobile companies, including Ford, GYM, Honda, Nissan, and Chrysler. This represents an annual 68 billion dollar industry, with further factory expansion plans.

The FTO designation might impact foreign investment in Mexico. Investors could become wary of potential legal ramifications and the heightened security risks associated with investing in a country where FTOs operate.

Enhanced scrutiny and security measures might slow down trade processes, affecting industries and consumers in both countries.

These points become increasingly important as the US seeks other manufacturing options as a result of deteriorating China relations.

Conclusion

The potential designation of Mexican cartels as FTOs presents a complex matrix of benefits and challenges. While it promises enhanced law enforcement capabilities and a stronger stance against drug trafficking and related crimes, it also brings potential diplomatic strains, impacts on trade and foreign investment, and complex legal and ethical dilemmas. The decision will significantly influence U.S.-Mexico relations, the broader fight against international drug trafficking, and the future of border security and public health, particularly in light of the escalating fentanyl crisis.

[Crafty_Dog]

Americans going to or returning from Rocky Point have a choice to travel west through San Luis. That’s considered a relatively safe area. Or they can travel east, through Nogales. That route would send them straight through Caborca and Altar. Territory that is at the heart of the recent gang violence.

The violence is not isolated to Sasabe. Farther south, the towns of Altar, Caborca and Benjamin Hill have all seen flare-ups since the gangs began fighting. Photos and videos posted by Mexican media show rival gang members hanging from light posts – one of them on fire. And example after example of gunfights playing out along major Sonoran highways.

[Body-by-Guinness]

Interesting piece how banks enable cartels while insulated from accountability:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/drugs-elites-and-impunity-paradoxes-money-laundering-and-too-big-fail-concept

[Crafty_Dog]

My eyes started to glaze over reading that.

I found myself wondering about the consequences of an all-seeing all-knowing financial system.

Instead of destroying financial privacy in the name of fighting the cartels, maybe we should hit China over the head with a baseball bat for its role in the trade and actually control our borders instead?

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.oann.com/newsroom/mexico-calls-for-probe-into-why-mexican-drug-cartels-are-in-possession-of-u-s-military-grade-weapons/

My short answer is that they got them from the Mexican military and various Central American militaries.

[Body-by-Guinness]

My eyes started to glaze over reading that.

I found myself wondering about the consequences of an all-seeing all-knowing financial system.

Instead of destroying financial privacy in the name of fighting the cartels, maybe we should hit China over the head with a baseball bat for its role in the trade and actually control our borders instead?

I think there were two big takeaways in the piece:

- The scope of Mexican dysfunction. 90% of crimes NEVER reported? The body count? The breadth of the corruption? All well sourced? With some in the US appearing to work so hard to bring something similar our way?

- The lack of US prosecutions where the bank in question was concerned. Why? Are pockets getting lined? Are spooks banking dark funds? It’s not like both haven’t happened….

[Crafty_Dog]

I've lived, travelled, studied, and worked in Mexico.  Not reporting crimes to the police goes back to before the narco wars.  The police were, and are, held in low regard.

One time I was knocked off my motorcyle by a car.  It stopped for a moment then drove off but not before I got its license.   I tried reporting this hit and run to various places and always got the runaround.  No one could be bothered.

Now with the cartels it is far worse.   Depending on the crime, reporting it can get you killed.

As for the bank thing, my concern remains-- having a capacity to go after laundering also means an end to banking privacy.

[Body-by-Guinness]

As for the bank thing, my concern remains-- having a capacity to go after laundering also means an end to banking privacy.

I’m certainly not arguing for more regs, rather trying to figure which shell the pea is under. When you have congress critters & amok regulators yodeling for more enforcement tools while failing to use the ones at hand I wonder why. It appears to parallel the “gun control” effort: thousands of laws on the books that aren’t enforced vigorously (yo Hunter, how they hangin’?) while onerous new laws that primarily impact the law abiding are demanded.

At the end of the day our overlords aren’t all that creative: foster a set of circumstances that can be used as a poster child, wave that poster tither and yon, accuse anyone that fails to join the “solution” stampede of being cruel to baby ducks, children, & the favored class du jour, while our overlords utterly ignore any rules & regs that do result ala Diane Feinstein carrying a concealed firearm while denying that right to her constituents. The pattern is distinct. It’s time to call it out every time it’s seen.

[ccp]

Just thinking:

we always hear the phrase "threat to democracy"

such as Russia ,  Communist China, nuclear war, climate change, Republicans, lawfare, right leaning SCOTUS, and of course the daily cries of Trump.

In Mexico political cartel corruption is rampant.
and the government is infiltrated the press is intimidated so the average citizen is a pawn a punk with no real say.....

I think we should keep in mind simple age old plain ***corruption***

What protects us from corruption.   Supposedly inspector generals, judicial system, law and order etc. When these invariably fail we have the free press freedom of speech, but now when these fail we are simply screwed over.

There is a fine line between corruption vs influence.

Is offering Kari Lake millions to stay out of the Arizona race corruption?
Is Zuckerberg coming up with hundreds of millions to help Democrats win corruption?

Is CNN bribing anti Trumpers jobs corruption?

Is Trump calling Ga gov asking to find more votes (not necessarily to make them up etc) corruption?

Is the U of Penn Blinken Biden Chinese connections corruption?

I could go on forever.

I am thinking the biggest threat to Democracy in the US is corruption

of the legal system
of the financial system
of the very rich
of the press

JW is a breath of fresh air in this regard.

[Crafty_Dog]

Love JW.  I regularly donate.

"Is Zuckerberg coming up with hundreds of millions to help Democrats win corruption?"

No, it is rigging the election.

[Crafty_Dog]

January 29, 2024
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Open as PDF

How Mexico Plans to Reclaim Its Economy
There are competing ideas on how to dislodge organized crime from the formal economy.
By: Allison Fedirka

In Mexico, security and economic recovery are intertwined. Politicians and citizens alike understand that the country’s powerful criminal groups threaten both, and though they broadly agree that something should be done, no one agrees on the best path forward.

Partly this is because of geography. Throughout history, mountains, deserts, peninsulas and other features have divided Mexico into various subregions, many of which are too remote or too inaccessible for Mexico City to effectively govern. These power vacuums have given rise to independence movements, warlords, revolutions and even parallel governments. Organized criminal groups such as the Sinaloa and the Jalisco New Generation cartels are simply a contemporary expression of a historical reality.

Mexico's Physical Geographic Regions

(click to enlarge)

The problem for the federal government is the power these groups have been able to amass. Ignoring the sheer wealth generated from the lucrative drug trade, one of the biggest contributions to their power is the mass defection of Mexican armed forces. When Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (or PAN) assumed office in 2000, his government fundamentally redefined its relationship with the military, and servicemen lost a lot of the immunities, operational freedoms, financial benefits and social status afforded to them through 70 years of rule under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (or PRI). Whatever their reasons for joining, the cartels’ capabilities improved markedly, gaining the sophistication, organization and discipline typically reserved for the forces meant to police them.

More recently, cartels were able to massively expand their local influence at a low cost during the COVID-19 pandemic. In many remote locations, they stepped in to ensure the delivery of basic goods where the national government could not. This allowed organized crime to permeate even deeper into remote communities across the country.

Organized crime groups now control large portions of the formal and informal economies. To be sure, they still engage in illicit activities such as human, arms and narcotics trafficking, but increasingly they function like multinational corporations, with chief operating officers earning MBAs from top universities, assuming control over all branches of the business, working with the equivalent of subsidiaries and having strong ties to business in the rest of Latin America as well as Caribbean criminal groups. In the formal economy, they tend to function as adjuncts to government services. They monopolize local control of internet providers, source and provide pharmaceuticals, and engage in legitimate business activities such as manufacturing and selling their own cigarette brands. Nationally, they impose taxes and quotas on the avocado and lime industries, and they have even made inroads in the beer market.

The increased presence of organized crime groups in areas traditionally part of Mexico’s formal economy poses a new level of threat to the country. In years past, their presence might have scared off foreign investors or increased security and transportation costs. But now, it raises the question of who controls which parts of the national economy. This is particularly important as the country continues to recover from the pandemic – a tall order in its own right that becomes much more difficult if the government is limited on what it can do with its economy.

Politically, there is consensus that regaining control of the economy is essential for economic recovery and requires redefining the role of organized crime in the country. However, Mexican political circles remain divided over what strategy would be the most effective in achieving their goal. The two leading strategies are represented by Mexico’s top two presidential candidates. The candidate from the ruling Morena party, Claudia Sheinbaum, wants to double down on the strategy used by the PRI: a gentleman’s agreement whereby the cartels operate relatively freely within the parameters set forth by the government. The benefit of this strategy is that the government wouldn’t necessarily have to reclaim control of certain sectors or retake territory – both of which would eventuate in violence. Instead, negotiated agreements would enable the government and the cartels to work together on economic matters. The problem, of course, is that this strategy would reward the cartels by giving them power over the government. It would also likely see the weakening of key government institutions needed to subjugate the cartels. Unsurprisingly, there is opposition to this strategy within security and defense circles, which would be inclined to slow implementation or impede it entirely.

The second strategy – advocated by opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez, whose view represents the PRI, PAN and the Party of the Democratic Revolution – calls for a strong state offensive to retake what it has lost. The upside here is that it would target corruption and the economic power propping up organized crime, and if it succeeds, it would eliminate a security threat that has plagued Mexico and its economy for decades while giving Mexico City undisputed control over its economy. The downside is that it requires a ton of political capital, which will be hard to come by if the government is purging corrupt rank and file, struggling to keep up morale and buy-in among security forces, and managing the political fallout of what is sure to be mass death and destruction. The latter would scare off the foreign investment the country's economic recovery depends on. (A similar strategy was tried under President Felipe Calderon, with little success.)

Each strategy will shape Mexico’s economic recovery in its own way. The Morena strategy will minimize violence but could hamper national businesses and reduce FDI as investors will find it hard to trust such an arrangement in the long term. The second strategy will require a massive amount of money and resources, increasing the likelihood of economic pain in the short term for potential gains in the long term. Neither strategy will be immune to the vagaries of political implementation.

Geopolitically, the fight against organized crime seeks to answer one of Mexico’s most fundamental questions: Can the government find a way to be in full control of its territory and economy despite the country's geography and history? The Morena strategy essentially wants to work within those constraints, while the other believes Mexico can break out of its constraints – if it’s willing to pay the price.

Andres Araujo contributed to this analysis. Mr. Araujo is an intern at Geopolitical Futures and a student at the University of Valle de Atemajac in Guadalajara, Mexico, where he studies international relations.

[Body-by-Guinness]

Some thoughts on the recent noise, started by AG Barr and echoed by many others about going military in Mexico blah blah.

Profoundly foolish IMHO.

Note the Zeihan 2 above wherein he makes the point about Sinaloa and others being BUSINESSES with an attitude of "don't shit where you eat", thus enabling them to integrate into the local fabric.  Witness the "apology" and turning over those responsible for the attack on the four black Americans in Matamoros.

Our military would have no fg idea at whom to shoot, and would be disrupting lots of business "understandings".  When blended with the STRONG traditional Mexican hostility to American interventions, the result would be chaos.

Note too Zeihan's comment about NG Jalisco going full Chicago in Phoenix and elsewhere.   Few people realize just how deeply we ALREADY are penetrated, nor of the quasi-military capabilities of the Cartels.

My understanding is that the Cartels now make more money on human trafficking/the illegal alien trade than on drugs.    The first order of business must be to fg fully seize control of our border and shut down the illegal alien trade.   Invading Mexico simply not necessary or wise.

Where are our top Libertarian thinkers advocating that we legalize human trafficking to deprive the cartels of money?

About to post in this thread when I noticed this bit of abject sophistry. As has been pointed out by this libertarian deep thinker time and again, there is a difference between crimes with victims and supposed crimes where the person impacted is person partaking of the “criminal” behavior. The fact that this red herring is rolled out time and again reflects far more deeply on the person employing these sorts of facile distractions than on anyone advocating for liberty.

[Body-by-Guinness]

This piece is more about Mexico than any US matter, though the US certainly plays an outsized hand in the pathologies examined here, and it certainly embraces its share of academic onanism, but with all that said it does fruitfully examine the current state of Mexico and the various forces leading to the current human catastrophes it endures:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/organized-crime-groups-and-their-discourse-mexico

[ccp]

https://dnyuz.com/2024/03/01/mexicos-presidential-race-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-blowout/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum

Mexico is ~90 % Christian

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Mexico

[Crafty_Dog]

The world retains its ability to surprise.

BTW The Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores from back in the 70s IIRC named Rabassa was Jewish.  There is a small but powerful Jewish community in Mexico City.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://washingtontimes-dc.newsmemory.com/?token=a352e7aec37a1d4b278cb4826a047f27_65e5e2b2_6d25b5f&selDate=20240304

[Crafty_Dog]

In Upcoming Elections, Mexico Weighs Its Political Future
The two leading candidates support divergent paths to the same end.
By: Allison Fedirka

The biggest question facing Mexico in the upcoming presidential election is how the country can balance democratic governance while also supporting strong centralized authority. The two leading candidates in the race represent opposite sides in this debate. The approach that prevails on June 2 will serve as the cornerstone of the administration and will shape its strategies toward security, economics and international engagement for years to come.

Despite the two leading candidates’ differing approaches, there is consensus among Mexican politicians and the general public on the main problems facing the next president. They agree on the need for a strong central authority that promotes national development and can wield control over regional governments. They also agree on the need to end the country’s drug war and find ways to take advantage of China’s economic decline and other opportunities created by the global economic climate. Where they differ is on how they believe Mexico can achieve these goals.

Mexico’s geography and history dictate that a strong central government is needed to keep the country together. National unity has been a challenge for Mexico as far back as Spanish colonization. Mountains, deserts, plateaus and peninsulas naturally segment the country, resulting in power vacuums, disparities in economic development and strong popular support for local leaders over distant federal ones. Over the years, this challenge has manifested in various forms, from separatist movements to parallel governments to revolutions. These internal fault lines tend to get aggravated during times of insecurity, economic hardship and political uncertainty.

Historically, the Mexican government dealt with governance challenges by centralizing power. Porfirio Diaz, who ruled the country from 1876 to 1880 and again from 1884 to 1911, and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled from 1929 to 2000, stand out as the most prolific sources of centralized power in Mexican history. Diaz’s stints in office, known as the Porfiriato, were characterized by economic growth, modernization and limited personal freedoms. (This period did not end well, and helped kick off the Mexican revolution in 1910.) The PRI’s dominance differed in that the party ruled by relying on clientelism, rotating party figureheads and controlling political leadership at both the national and state levels.

The end of the PRI’s power monopoly set the stage for Mexico’s current governance dilemma. Politicians initially adjusted the constitution with the aim of reducing executive authority and empowering other government institutions, particularly the judiciary. This was viewed domestically as a democratization push, resulting in the expansion of political participation throughout Mexico and the decentralization of political power, with three different parties – the National Action Party, the PRI and the Morena party – occupying the presidency since 2000. However, the changes also undermined the power structure that kept order among the different interest groups vying for influence. Over the past 25 years, the democratization process has largely stalled, with some institutions weakening or collapsing completely due to political fragmentation. However, others have evolved and improved their standing – including, most notably, the Supreme Court. From this situation, a key question arose: How does a country that requires strong central control maintain democratic governance?

Traditional political theory offers two schools of thought. The first, institutionalism, prioritizes building institutions and enforcing existing norms. Constructivism, on the other hand, calls for building a strong public consensus around shared ideas and values and then creating norms based on these ideals. Both schools of thought revolve around constructing a strong foundation and enforcement mechanisms that, if executed successfully, will allow the government to project power across the country and, eventually, abroad. While the general concepts and end goals are similar, the strategies for achieving them drastically differ.

Mexico’s two leading presidential candidates each embody one of these schools of thought. The candidate of the ruling Morena party, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, has adopted a constructivist approach. Morena views the political party as the main vehicle connecting the central government with local governments and the people based on shared views and values. It also supports reducing the power of government institutions in favor of prioritizing the role of political parties, with the aim of reasserting control over the country. The party has reached deals with diverse groups to allow them to operate in exchange for their support during elections. Morena argues that this approach is democratic because it does not advocate the dissolution of state institutions, but the party’s outreach to groups outside the government has raised concerns that it could eventually undermine democratic institutions. Morena has faced opposition from different interests, like the Supreme Court and security forces, that have gained power in recent years and feel threatened by its governance strategy.

Meanwhile, opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez has adopted an institutionalist approach. The opposition has called for professionalization of institutional structures, which would help make them the center of the country’s political system and the main source of power projection within Mexico. Some of the more hardline members of this camp also support modernizing the constitution to formally change the country’s political system to one dominated by technocrat-run institutions. A major challenge facing this strategy is that it would require tearing down the old power structure before installing a new one. This would inevitably create political tensions and irk some powerful economic actors that benefit from the remnants of clientelism and crony capitalism.

Mexico's choice in the upcoming election is ultimately between returning to a governance system that worked in the past or transitioning to a new one. The outcome of this struggle will decide the future of influential groups in Mexico like the military and teachers' unions. It also runs a high risk of creating conflict among business elites who support different governance paths, based on what better serves their interests. Mexico’s ability to resolve this issue will also directly affect its ability to project power abroad and improve its international standing.

Andres Araujo contributed to this analysis. Mr. Araujo is an intern at Geopolitical Futures and a student at the University of Valle de Atemajac in Guadalajara, Mexico, where he studies international relations.

[Crafty_Dog]

(6) SHEINBAUM PROPOSES INDUSTRIAL PARKS FOR MIGRANTS: Mexican presidential candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, who is likely to be the next president, proposed the construction of 10 new industrial parks in Mexico’s southern states in order to employ migrants.

“Migrants go to the United States because in their country they don’t have [opportunities]. The southern [Mexico] border is going to serve to employ migrants in a considerable percentage,” a Morena party official said.

Why It Matters: Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has repeatedly requested more money from the United States in order to improve economic conditions. This may become an attractive target for U.S. foreign development aid for two reasons. First, because Mexico is a near-shoring option for U.S. manufacturing. And second, because it could make a small dent in the numbers of migrants headed towards the U.S. border. – M.S.