Energy Politics & Science

[DougMacG]

https://www.americanexperiment.org/how-to-destroy-the-myth-of-cheap-wind-and-solar/

https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-03-at-5.39.26-PM.png

[LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy is a measure that includes some costs and omits others in order to show a desired, misleading result.]

LCOE estimates can make wind and solar look cheap, so long as you ignore most of the costs of integrating them on to the grid and backing them up.

Comparing LCOEs makes sense when examining reliable, dispatchable power plants because these power plants can be turned on or off to meet electricity demand. It makes very little sense when you start including intermittent and weather-based energy sources that don’t provide the same value as thermal generators.

The intermittency of wind and solar imposes unique expenses on the electric grid that require an evaluation of the entire electric system in order to derive meaningful cost estimates from these generators. This is difficult to do, which is why most people don’t do it.

Our modeling attempts to provide this apples-to-apples comparison of running a reliable grid with dispatchable energy sources like coal, natural gas, and nuclear versus that of intermittent facilities like wind and solar. In every case, the answer is clear: wind and solar are by far the most expensive.

[Body-by-Guinness]

https://www.americanexperiment.org/how-to-destroy-the-myth-of-cheap-wind-and-solar/

https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/04/Screenshot-2024-04-03-at-5.39.26-PM.png

[LCOE Levelized Cost of Energy is a measure that includes some costs and omits others in order to show a desired, misleading result.]

LCOE estimates can make wind and solar look cheap, so long as you ignore most of the costs of integrating them on to the grid and backing them up.

Comparing LCOEs makes sense when examining reliable, dispatchable power plants because these power plants can be turned on or off to meet electricity demand. It makes very little sense when you start including intermittent and weather-based energy sources that don’t provide the same value as thermal generators.

The intermittency of wind and solar imposes unique expenses on the electric grid that require an evaluation of the entire electric system in order to derive meaningful cost estimates from these generators. This is difficult to do, which is why most people don’t do it.

Our modeling attempts to provide this apples-to-apples comparison of running a reliable grid with dispatchable energy sources like coal, natural gas, and nuclear versus that of intermittent facilities like wind and solar. In every case, the answer is clear: wind and solar are by far the most expensive.

An understandable and damning piece, Doug. Any idea what the difference between “natural gas CC” and “natural gas CT” is? Substantial cost difference shown in the graph and I’m trying to account for it.

[DougMacG]

I had the same question while posting that.

From the links below:
"Natural gas can be burned to produce electricity in a traditional combustion turbine (CT) power plant or a more modern and efficient combined cycle (CC) power plant.

A combined cycle power plant is a modern electrical generating plant that captures the energy from burning natural gas in two ways.

First - the gas turbine burns fuel and generates electricity:
The gas turbine compresses air and mixes it with fuel.
The mixture is ignited, creating an explosion that propels the very hot gas through the turbine.
The hot gas spins the gas turbine blades which rotates the turbine shaft.
The fast-spinning turbine shaft drives a generator that converts the spinning energy into electricity.
Second - the steam turbine utilizes the waste heat from the gas turbine exhaust that would otherwise escape through the exhaust stack to create additional electricity:
A heat exchanger captures exhaust heat from the gas turbine and boils water to create steam.
The steam spins the steam turbine blades which rotates the turbine shaft.
The steam turbine shaft drives a generator that delivers additional electricity.
This is the most efficient type of fossil fuel power plant. By combining these two systems, the overall net efficiency of the combustion process can be increased by 50 - 60 percent. Thus, from an overall efficiency of about 35% in a single cycle system one can achieve to an overall efficiency of 50-60% in a combined cycle system.

Either a single shart or multiple shaft configuration can be used for the combined cycle plant. In a single shaft system, the gas and steam turbines turn a common shaft with a single generator. This is the most efficient configuration. However, in larger plants it is more economical to have multiple gas turbines and a single steam turbine.

For large-scale power generation, a typical gas/steam turbine set would be a 270 MW gas turbine coupled to a 130 MW steam turbine giving a total of 400 MW. A typical power plant might consist of between 1 and 6 such sets. GE currently manufactures the largest gas turbine available at just over 500 MW."

https://www.ourworldofenergy.com/vignettes.php?type=electrical-power-generation&id=15

https://www.ourworldofenergy.com/vignettes.php?type=electrical-power-generation&id=9

[Body-by-Guinness]

I had the same question while posting that.

From the links below:
"Natural gas can be burned to produce electricity in a traditional combustion turbine (CT) power plant or a more modern and efficient combined cycle (CC) power plant.

A combined cycle power plant is a modern electrical generating plant that captures the energy from burning natural gas in two ways.

First - the gas turbine burns fuel and generates electricity:
The gas turbine compresses air and mixes it with fuel.
The mixture is ignited, creating an explosion that propels the very hot gas through the turbine.
The hot gas spins the gas turbine blades which rotates the turbine shaft.
The fast-spinning turbine shaft drives a generator that converts the spinning energy into electricity.
Second - the steam turbine utilizes the waste heat from the gas turbine exhaust that would otherwise escape through the exhaust stack to create additional electricity:
A heat exchanger captures exhaust heat from the gas turbine and boils water to create steam.
The steam spins the steam turbine blades which rotates the turbine shaft.
The steam turbine shaft drives a generator that delivers additional electricity.
This is the most efficient type of fossil fuel power plant. By combining these two systems, the overall net efficiency of the combustion process can be increased by 50 - 60 percent. Thus, from an overall efficiency of about 35% in a single cycle system one can achieve to an overall efficiency of 50-60% in a combined cycle system.

Either a single shart or multiple shaft configuration can be used for the combined cycle plant. In a single shaft system, the gas and steam turbines turn a common shaft with a single generator. This is the most efficient configuration. However, in larger plants it is more economical to have multiple gas turbines and a single steam turbine.

For large-scale power generation, a typical gas/steam turbine set would be a 270 MW gas turbine coupled to a 130 MW steam turbine giving a total of 400 MW. A typical power plant might consist of between 1 and 6 such sets. GE currently manufactures the largest gas turbine available at just over 500 MW."

https://www.ourworldofenergy.com/vignettes.php?type=electrical-power-generation&id=15

https://www.ourworldofenergy.com/vignettes.php?type=electrical-power-generation&id=9

Thanks! My quick search mostly returned “closed caption” or “Connecticut” hits so I quit wading through the results. Your deep dive into it here is appreciated?

[Body-by-Guinness]

I know, in the name climate change let’s battle CO2 by leveling balsa forest carbon sinks for wind turbine blades, all supported by ton after ton of concrete which out-gasses huge amounts of CO2 both in its production and while it cures. That’ll fix the planet: 

https://the-pipeline.org/thicker-than-concrete-dumber-than-dirt/?fbclid=IwAR37W4c8U5AUnidHRR7vEk_JlOgafBDZ32WDnUo77ze-QQAp62WeYtSP2Ds

[Crafty_Dog]

(2) INDUSTRY WARNS NEW SOLAR PANEL TRADE WAR COMING: The American Clean Power Association and the Solar Energy Industries Association said a major U.S. solar manufacturer will file a petition with the Biden administration, urging the government to investigate solar panel dumping in the U.S. market by Asian manufacturers.

At least one major U.S. solar wafer maker, CubicPV, scrapped plans for a U.S. factory, citing “a dramatic collapse in wafer prices.”
Why It Matters: China is using trade tactics to corner the solar wafer market, which it has used in other key infrastructure sectors, including port cranes, to undermine the U.S. domestic industry. Biden administration loans and grants to build a domestic green energy industry are effectively giving money to the Chinese government since U.S. battery, electric vehicle, and solar makers are reliant on Chinese components and supply chains. The Biden administration is putting pressure on the Chinese tech industry over semiconductors but is signaling reluctance to take stronger steps against China on trade in other industries. – R.C.

[Crafty_Dog]

Texas Gets a Spring Energy Scare
The Lone Star State power grid is already swooning and it’s only spring.
By
The Editorial Board
April 15, 2024 5:36 pm ET


Summer is two months away, yet the Texas power grid is already swooning. On Friday the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (Ercot) asked power generators to postpone scheduled maintenance early this week “to help alleviate potential tight conditions” as temperatures rise into the not-so-sizzling 80s.

The grid typically has excess power-generating capacity in the spring owing to mild weather. There’s also an abundance of solar and wind power. This is why plants go off-line for repairs in the spring to prepare for the summer when electricity use surges as people ramp up the air conditioning.

Yet merely warm spring weather is now enough to push the Texas grid to the brink. Tuesday’s high is forecast to be 89 degrees in Dallas and 84 in Houston. These temperatures shouldn’t force grid operators to break a sweat to keep the lights on, but they are.

One culprit is skyrocketing electricity demand from population growth, new data centers and manufacturing plants. A surge in Bitcoin prices has also made cypto-mining more profitable. Many miners located servers in Texas because—get this—they can arbitrage grid crunches to get paid to reduce power usage.

Data centers accounted for about 2.5% of U.S. electricity in 2022 and are expected to make up more than 20% by 2030. Artificial intelligence is magnifying this demand. A web search uses less than one watt of power while an AI-powered search can require 100 watts. Training an AI search uses around 1,000 watts.

The spring grid S.O.S. doesn’t augur well for the summer or the rest of the country. The past winter was one of the mildest on record, which eased the growing strain on the grid. Yet this summer is forecast to be one of the hottest, which means Americans will almost certainly be told to conserve power to prevent outages—i.e., don’t plan on plugging in your Tesla after getting home from work.

One risk is that power-plant maintenance that is delayed or canceled will lead to more plants failing in the summer when they are needed. Better get that emergency generator while it’s still in stock.

[Crafty_Dog]

BTW oil has dropped $3-4 in the last few days.

FO:

(1) BIDEN WILL KEEP IRAN OIL FLOWING DESPITE SANCTIONS BILL: Capital Alpha Partners director Jim Lucier said, “Oil traders are nonchalant because they know Biden will certainly sign whatever waivers are necessary to keep Iranian oil flowing into the market just as he is keeping Russian barrels flowing into the market.”

A person familiar with the matter said the Biden administration is still analyzing the Iran sanctions bill, but no impact on oil markets is expected before the fall.

According to Clearview Energy Partners, the sanctions bill, if implemented, would increase global oil prices by $8.40.

Why It Matters: The Biden administration is focused on maintaining energy price stability ahead of the election and is more likely to pursue sanctions against Iran in other sectors like military production to prevent global oil price fluctuations. The Biden administration ran into similar issues with sanctions against Russia, and economic interdependence means the U.S. economy will be impacted by sanctions against foreign adversaries that produce energy or other critical inputs. – R.C.

[ccp]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/long-term-coal-power-plants-must-control-90-of-their-carbon-pollution-new-epa-rules-say/ar-AA1nDvbv?ocid=msedgdhphdr&cvid=6946e73529e24cafbe2e75acd0cc8dc2&ei=25

" all while "supporting the long-term reliable supply of the electricity needed to power America forward."   

"Together, the rules are expected to spur up to $370 billion in climate and public health net benefits over the next two decades"   

promises, promises.........