Author Topic: Energy Politics & Science  (Read 612896 times)

G M

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Re: Could be huge-- Israel set to become major Euro supplier?
« Reply #900 on: June 18, 2022, 08:02:21 AM »
Too little, too late for euroweenies.


ET

Israel-Europe Gas Deal Will Transform European Geopolitics and Energy Security
Israel becomes a major player on the world’s energy stage and directly threatens Russian economy and influence in Europe
James Gorrie
Writer
 June 17, 2022 Updated: June 17, 2022biggersmaller Print


This week, Israel officially positioned itself as a natural supplier to Europe, one of the largest markets on earth.

The announcement of an agreement signed by Israel, Egypt, and the European Union on June 15 at the East Mediterranean Gas Forum will be a huge deal for both Europe and Israel. The Europeans’ drive to find alternative sources of natural gas is a direct result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A Big Deal for Europe and Israel
For decades, Europe has relied on Russian natural gas, and Russia’s good graces, for energy. Moscow has repeatedly shut off gas to European nations at will as a way of influencing policy.

Gaining new access to Israeli natural gas allows it to pivot away from Russia as its source for energy, particularly for its natural gas supply.

It’s also a huge advancement for Israel, as it leverages its Leviathan natural gas fields just off its coast in the Eastern Mediterranean as an entree into a global energy supplier. The transportation plan is simple and will allow gas exports to begin sooner than many expected.

A Change in Plans
Initially, the long-term plan had been to build a pipeline from the gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean to Cyprus, then to Greece, and on into Western Europe. Those plans have been challenged by Turkey, which claims ownership of natural gas. It has also claimed territorial rights to any pipeline that runs through Cyprus or crosses the maritime line that Turkey and Libya have claimed exists between their two countries.

But according to the new agreement, no new pipelines will need to be constructed, at least not right away. Instead, the plan is to use existing pipelines that run from Israel and Jordan to Egypt’s liquified natural gas facilities. From there, the liquified natural gas (LNG) will be transported directly to European markets via existing shipping lanes to European port(s) within a couple of years.

Israel’s Gain Is Russia’s Loss
As exports of LNG to Europe ramp up over the next couple of years, Israel will gain tremendous revenue inflows from its European customers at Russia’s expense. Currently, Europe relies on Russia for about 40 percent of its natural gas supplies. In 2021, that represented $119 billion in annual revenues flowing from Europe to Russia. Revenue flows will be even higher as energy prices continue to rise. Natural gas is nothing short of a strategic asset, as it is the single biggest portion of Russian-European trade, comprising 36 percent of the country’s total budget.


A Diplomatic Victory Across the Arab World

The deal is more than just an economic windfall for Israel. It demonstrates just how well Israel and its Arab partner, Egypt, can work together for their mutual economic benefit.

That message of cooperation and mutual benefit will be seen and heard loud and clear across the Arab and Islamic world. It’s not wishful thinking that Egypt’s cooperation will attract the same from other Arab nations that could benefit from better relations with Israel.

Furthermore, when liquified natural gas shipments begin to arrive in Europe, that will fundamentally alter the balance of power between Russia and Europe.

Bad News for Russia

That’s good news for Europe and Israel, but it’s very bad news for Russia and Vladimir Putin. From an economic standpoint, the impact of Europe ditching Russia as a supplier of both oil and natural gas will be catastrophic for the Russian economy.

Russia may have to find new markets quickly.

It’s worth noting that China is already buying Russian energy, providing Russia with revenues that rival the European market, even at discounted prices—but that may not last forever.

But the Israeli-European gas deal is also very problematic for Russia from a geopolitical perspective. Without the power to sway or punish Europe with threats of withholding natural gas supplies, Russia will have very little else with which to influence European policy.

Indeed, Moscow understands this as well as anyone, which adds a definite level of complexity, if not risk, to the new agreement.

How Will Moscow React?

How, for example, will or could Moscow react to this development?

As noted, it could be considered a threat to Russia, if not an economic act of war. It’s certainly not a deprivation of energy or food per se, but the net effect could be similar.

Moscow could interpret the new natural gas agreement in the context that the EU and Israel (two prominent critics of the Ukraine invasion) are cooperating—if not conspiring—to deprive Russia of its most important market.

That’s true. And it could well cause Russians to suffer great economic hardship. Moreover, Russia’s geopolitical influence in Europe and the rest of the world would diminish as well.

Would Moscow take a wait-and-see attitude toward Israel and the European Union, hoping that it will be able to convince either party not to go through with the deal?


Or would it resort to a naval blockade of natural gas shipments into Europe to protect its economic interests?

Much may depend on the state of the outcome of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which is not readily foreseeable. But once Europe is free of Russian gas, it will no longer be a hostage to Russian blackmail, though it still risks being bullied by Moscow militarily.

That same reasoning also applies to Israel, and it is keenly aware of Russia’s military presence on its northern border. More war from Russia over this deal could be in the cards.

After all, what other card does Russia have to play?

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #901 on: June 18, 2022, 12:18:17 PM »
Of course, the contrary argument is "Only if we fold in Ukraine".

G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #902 on: June 18, 2022, 10:29:47 PM »
Of course, the contrary argument is "Only if we fold in Ukraine".

"the plan is to use existing pipelines that run from Israel and Jordan to Egypt’s liquified natural gas facilities. From there, the liquified natural gas (LNG) will be transported directly to European markets via existing shipping lanes to European port(s) within a couple of years"

They don't have time.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #903 on: June 19, 2022, 07:47:05 AM »
Of course, the contrary argument is "Only if we fold".

G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #904 on: June 19, 2022, 08:17:15 AM »
Of course, the contrary argument is "Only if we fold".

Please flesh that out for me.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #905 on: June 19, 2022, 08:37:05 AM »
The argument would run something like this:

If the fight continues until Europe gains courage from the presumed incipience of this deal coming on stream, then the momentum turns.

G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #906 on: June 19, 2022, 08:41:19 AM »
This would be the same europe that allows muslim rape gangs to openly prey on their women and children, lest they be called racist?


The argument would run something like this:

If the fight continues until Europe gains courage from the presumed incipience of this deal coming on stream, then the momentum turns.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #907 on: June 19, 2022, 08:48:07 AM »
OK, so if after all the noise the Cabal Named Biden has made about knocking Russia down now backs off as you suggest (and the deal is likely to suck for what leverage would we have in such negotiations?) what does the geopolitical landscape look like for America in the aftermath of the shame of Afghanistan, the failed bluster in Ukraine, and Iran going nuclear?


G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #908 on: June 19, 2022, 08:52:03 AM »
If I was China, Russia, Iran or anyone else, I'd see the US for what it is. Morally, spiritually and financially bankrupt.

We'll force career warriors out for not taking the ClotShot, but HIV+ deviants are fine to serve.



OK, so if after all the noise the Cabal Named Biden has made about knocking Russia down now backs off as you suggest (and the deal is likely to suck for what leverage would we have in such negotiations?) what does the geopolitical landscape look like for America in the aftermath of the shame of Afghanistan, the failed bluster in Ukraine, and Iran going nuclear?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #909 on: June 19, 2022, 08:58:21 AM »
Well, duh.

But my question remains unanswered.  If we do as you recommend, does it not add to the accelerating decline dramatically?  Whereas if we hold/have some success, does this open the door to re-establishing credibility as an ally?

G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #910 on: June 19, 2022, 09:07:38 AM »
WE

WON"T

EVEN

PROTECT

OUR

OWN

BORDER.

Want to regain credibility? Let's start there.

Baby steps.



Well, duh.

But my question remains unanswered.  If we do as you recommend, does it not add to the accelerating decline dramatically?  Whereas if we hold/have some success, does this open the door to re-establishing credibility as an ally?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #911 on: June 19, 2022, 12:03:44 PM »
Well, certainly a big hearty AMEN on asserting our border, but that still does not get to our credibility after the Iraq exit, the Afghanistan fustercluck, and GM's recommendation of pulling the rug from under the Ukes.

G M

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #912 on: June 19, 2022, 08:43:16 PM »
Well, certainly a big hearty AMEN on asserting our border, but that still does not get to our credibility after the Iraq exit, the Afghanistan fustercluck, and GM's recommendation of pulling the rug from under the Ukes.

No one takes us seriously, because we aren't a serious nation.








G M

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G M

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https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Screen-Shot-2022-06-22-at-8.33.26-AM-600x579.png



https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/04/germanys-inflation-surpasses-30-percent-highest-since-1949/

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/full-embargo-russian-oil-would-send-brent-185bbl-jpmorgan

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germanys-economic-minister-warned-unrest-if-russian-gas-immediately-cut

The five stages of grief
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Paying in Rubles

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-will-collect-321-billion-windfall-partially-thanks-sanctions

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/german-retailers-increase-food-prices-20-50-monday

Suddenly getting real for der Chermanz.


https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-ive-never-heard-so-many-lies/

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/clever-tactics-putin-gets-his-way-rubles-energy-demand


How do you say "Checkmate" in Russian?


https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/basf-ceo-warns-germany-total-collapse-if-russian-gas-supply-cut

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/putin-signs-decree-ordering-gas-exports-be-halted-if-buyers-dont-pay-rubles


https://www.dailycaller.com/2022/03/07/donald-trump-warned-united-nation-relying-russian-oil-german-delegation-laughed

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-getting-distinct-feeling-deja-vu-about-its-exploding-inflation

https://summit.news/2022/03/29/government-minister-tells-germans-to-cope-with-soaring-energy-costs-by-wearing-warmer-sweaters/


DougMacG

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #917 on: June 27, 2022, 01:20:39 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #918 on: June 27, 2022, 01:49:27 PM »
URL please?

DougMacG

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Crafty_Dog

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Re: Energy Politics & Science
« Reply #920 on: June 28, 2022, 06:00:58 AM »
Thank you.

Crafty_Dog

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Crafty_Dog

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G M

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Clown show
« Reply #923 on: June 29, 2022, 10:04:10 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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G M

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As the Biden Junta ships oil from the SPR overseas...
« Reply #929 on: July 07, 2022, 07:53:30 AM »



G M

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July 22
« Reply #932 on: July 12, 2022, 04:33:11 PM »





DougMacG

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Re: "Ze Trump is so stupidt"
« Reply #937 on: July 18, 2022, 07:58:19 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely
--------------------------------

For Russia, to shut off the gas is to shut off the cash register. 

But there is a world market for oil?  To ship it the other direction (FOB Beijing?) and around the world requires pipelines, tankers, infrastructure.  He also has to ship oil to his own tanks and planes in Donbas etc.

To the Europeans, to rely on Putin for life depending fuel in latitudes north of Saskatoon was, to say the least, risky business.

Yes.  Trump had it right and Palin was mocked for saying what we still needed to do aloud:  Drill, baby, drill.

More importantly, Germany shut down nuclear power right when they needed to expand it tenfold.  For an inland risk of tsunami?  Stupid.

Merkel's governance is not aging well.

G M

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G M

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G M

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Re: "Ze Trump is so stupidt" When politicians accidentally tell the truth
« Reply #942 on: July 23, 2022, 10:54:58 AM »
https://twitter.com/vonderburchard/status/1550398698701656064

“If we don’t get the gas turbine, then we won’t get any more gas, and then we won’t be able to provide any support for Ukraine at all, because then we’ll be busy with popular uprisings.” She immediately backtracked but damage was done.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-declares-force-majeure-will-halt-gas-flows-germany-indefinitely
--------------------------------

For Russia, to shut off the gas is to shut off the cash register. 

But there is a world market for oil?  To ship it the other direction (FOB Beijing?) and around the world requires pipelines, tankers, infrastructure.  He also has to ship oil to his own tanks and planes in Donbas etc.

To the Europeans, to rely on Putin for life depending fuel in latitudes north of Saskatoon was, to say the least, risky business.

Yes.  Trump had it right and Palin was mocked for saying what we still needed to do aloud:  Drill, baby, drill.

More importantly, Germany shut down nuclear power right when they needed to expand it tenfold.  For an inland risk of tsunami?  Stupid.

Merkel's governance is not aging well.


DougMacG

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Energy: Nothing we do, even banning its use, reduces the use of coal
« Reply #944 on: July 25, 2022, 11:34:22 AM »


Scroll right and look to the top of the chart.

This is not forecast.  This is actual.

American SUVs did not cause the 0.01 degree increase in temp last year.

Maybe we could shame China a bit if we put out own grid 100% on carbon-free nuclear.

Chart from:  https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-7-17-when-will-they-figure-out-that-reducing-us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-is-pointless
« Last Edit: July 25, 2022, 12:24:13 PM by DougMacG »

G M

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Re: Energy Nothing we do, even banning its use, reduces the use of coal
« Reply #945 on: July 25, 2022, 12:16:48 PM »
We are the carbon they wish to eliminate.





Scroll right and look to the top of the chart.

This is not forecast.  This is actual.

American SUVs did not cause the 0.01 degree increase in temp last year.

Maybe we could shame China a bit if we put out own grid 100% on carbon-free nuclear.

Chart from:  https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-7-17-when-will-they-figure-out-that-reducing-us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-is-pointless

DougMacG

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New_evidence_renewables_dont_reduce_carbon_dioxide emissions
« Reply #946 on: July 25, 2022, 12:33:44 PM »
emissions declined only 0.8%. CO2 emissions would have declined more if there had been no wind or solar on the grid.

https://www.caesarrodney.org/pdfs/New_evidence_renewables_dont_reduce_carbon_dioxide_emissions2.pdf

This comparison of actual regional grid carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions between 2019 and 2021 shows increased use of wind and solar did not reduce emissions. Wind and solar electric generation are actually poor technologies no one would use without permanent government mandates and massive subsidies and taxes that are adding $1 billion a year in power cost. They are also unreliable, non-recyclable, have negative environmental impacts, have shorter productive life spans than alternative power sources, and take up a lot of ground. If it doesn’t reduce carbon dioxide emissions why are we using wind and solar?

Study covers 13 states and the District of Columbia. ..

Table 1: PJM electric generation by technology 2019 to 2021
Fuel 2019 2021 Change MWh Change %
Coal 195,288,353 181,354,222 -13,934,131 -7.1%
Oil 833,249 1,469,140 635,891 76.3%
Natural Gas 299,925,492 313,750,191 13,824,699 4.6%
Other Gas 2,941,982 2,882,541 -59,441 -2.0%
Sub Total 498,989,076 499,456,094 467,018 0.1%
Hydro 11,047,831 10,509,639 -538,192 -4.9%
Nuclear 278,794,565 272,524,267 -6,270,298 -2.2%
Bio/wood/landfill 5,574,896 5,650,284 75,388 1.4%
Solar 2,734,753 7,336,368 4,601,615 168.3%
Wind 24,147,354 27,628,094 3,480,740 14.4%
Sub Total 322,299,399 323,648,652 1,349,253 0.4%
Total 821,288,475 823,104,746 1,816,271 0.2%
CO2 systems mix 851.1926 843.3056 7.8870 -0.9%

G M

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Re: New_evidence_renewables_dont_reduce_carbon_dioxide emissions
« Reply #947 on: July 25, 2022, 09:55:29 PM »
"If it doesn’t reduce carbon dioxide emissions why are we using wind and solar?"

1. It makes stupid people feel good.

2. It puts sweet, sweet taxpayer money in the pockets of the politically connected.



emissions declined only 0.8%. CO2 emissions would have declined more if there had been no wind or solar on the grid.

https://www.caesarrodney.org/pdfs/New_evidence_renewables_dont_reduce_carbon_dioxide_emissions2.pdf

This comparison of actual regional grid carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions between 2019 and 2021 shows increased use of wind and solar did not reduce emissions. Wind and solar electric generation are actually poor technologies no one would use without permanent government mandates and massive subsidies and taxes that are adding $1 billion a year in power cost. They are also unreliable, non-recyclable, have negative environmental impacts, have shorter productive life spans than alternative power sources, and take up a lot of ground. If it doesn’t reduce carbon dioxide emissions why are we using wind and solar?

Study covers 13 states and the District of Columbia. ..

Table 1: PJM electric generation by technology 2019 to 2021
Fuel 2019 2021 Change MWh Change %
Coal 195,288,353 181,354,222 -13,934,131 -7.1%
Oil 833,249 1,469,140 635,891 76.3%
Natural Gas 299,925,492 313,750,191 13,824,699 4.6%
Other Gas 2,941,982 2,882,541 -59,441 -2.0%
Sub Total 498,989,076 499,456,094 467,018 0.1%
Hydro 11,047,831 10,509,639 -538,192 -4.9%
Nuclear 278,794,565 272,524,267 -6,270,298 -2.2%
Bio/wood/landfill 5,574,896 5,650,284 75,388 1.4%
Solar 2,734,753 7,336,368 4,601,615 168.3%
Wind 24,147,354 27,628,094 3,480,740 14.4%
Sub Total 322,299,399 323,648,652 1,349,253 0.4%
Total 821,288,475 823,104,746 1,816,271 0.2%
CO2 systems mix 851.1926 843.3056 7.8870 -0.9%