Author Topic: China  (Read 352121 times)

Body-by-Guinness

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Chinese “Shadow Bank” in Default
« Reply #900 on: January 24, 2024, 10:27:12 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China
« Reply #901 on: January 25, 2024, 05:21:48 AM »
BTW compliments on the perfect choice of thread for this one  :-D


ccp

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above post China overbuilt housing
« Reply #903 on: February 02, 2024, 09:25:11 AM »
~ 1.5 billion or more unfilled housing units in China!?  WOW

A collapse in China would be both good and bad for us I am thinking,
since we are so intertwined with them.




DougMacG

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Re: above post China overbuilt housing
« Reply #904 on: February 02, 2024, 10:58:42 AM »
"A collapse in China would be both good and bad for us I am thinking,
since we are so intertwined with them."

  - Yes, during the Trump temporary tariffs policy, I was watching and hoping for them to feel the squeeze and come to the fairness and reciprocity trade window instead of what we have now.  As posted then, we had four times the leverage in trade negotiations but it did not work and was interrupted by covid, where their worldwide culpability should have hurt them even worse but it didn't.  The decoupling has begun, both ways, and they have no intention of stepping up anything other than their trade and espionage war against us and to invade Taiwan.

None of that will change under a weak President.  It didn't even change under a strong one.

To the point made, we want them to feel the sueeze and change their ways.  Complete economic collapse is another matter with far higher risks (for us). 

I favor whatever brings about the fall of the oppressive regime. 
« Last Edit: February 02, 2024, 11:00:33 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China
« Reply #905 on: February 02, 2024, 03:21:33 PM »
"A collapse in China would be both good and bad for us I am thinking,
since we are so intertwined with them."

Or we could say that it is a certain slice of our elites who are so intertwined with them and that this will be a very good thing for clarifying their "loyalty" to America once again while diminishing their influence in our government.

Body-by-Guinness

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China & Red Sea Shipping: Heads they Win, Tails they Win Too
« Reply #906 on: February 08, 2024, 10:06:32 AM »
The reason Beijing seems so relaxed about the crisis is obvious: this is a situation in which China wins either way. Either the threat continues but shipping is safer for Chinese vessels than for others, in which case sailing under the protection of the red and gold flag may become a coveted competitive advantage, or Beijing finally tells Iran to knock it off, in which case China becomes the de facto go-to security provider in the Middle East. Both outcomes would be geopolitical coups. No wonder China is willing to accept a little short-term economic pain as the situation plays out.

– Nathan Levine

https://www.samizdata.net/2024/02/samizdata-quote-of-the-day-either-way-china-wins/

Crafty_Dog

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Re: China
« Reply #907 on: February 08, 2024, 02:33:22 PM »
BBG: This thread is for domestic Chinese issues.

Yours could go on the FUBAR thread or the Iran thread.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: China's Deflation Spiral
« Reply #908 on: February 17, 2024, 06:43:44 PM »


February 17, 2024
View On Website
Open as PDF

China's Deflation Spiral
Reversing the trend becomes more difficult the longer it lasts.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Chinese Economic Deflation

(click to enlarge)

Recent data show China experiencing its sharpest decline in consumer prices in over 14 years, while producer prices fell by 2.5 percent, dropping for the 16th month in a row. This situation indicates a significant risk of prolonged deflation in China, exacerbated by challenges like a real estate slump, stock market downturn, loss of investor confidence, weaker exports and low consumer demand. Despite expectations for a temporary price rebound in February due to Lunar New Year demand, China's economic issues – excess supply, insufficient demand and financial strain – persist.

China's deflation is impacting the global economy, potentially accelerating interest rate cuts in emerging markets reliant on Chinese goods and raising concerns in the West about competitive disadvantages due to cheaper Chinese exports. This scenario suggests a global influx of low-priced imports as China seeks international buyers, which, while tempering inflation in some regions, poses broader economic challenges.

Crafty_Dog

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