Author Topic: The US Congress; Congressional races  (Read 303476 times)


Crafty_Dog

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GA
« Reply #1251 on: October 31, 2022, 09:00:16 AM »
STACEY ABRAMS MIGHT BE KAMIKAZE-ING DEMS’ SENATE CHANCES… JIM GERAGHTY: Is Abrams Dragging Down Warnock in Georgia?

Last night, Zaid Jilani offered an intriguing theory about the dynamics between the two statewide races in Georgia. “National press is missing what’s happening in this race. Walker isn’t dragging Kemp down. Abrams’ underperformance is threatening Warnock’s numbers and the chances of Dems holding the Senate.”

And there’s some evidence to support that theory. The Insider Advantage survey puts Kemp up by eight percentage points, Rasmussen and Data for Progress puts Kemp up by ten, and Trafalgar and East Carolina University put Kemp up by seven. You notice you just don’t hear as much about Stacey Abrams lately; FiveThirtyEight calculates that Kemp has a 91 percent chance of winning reelection.

In fact, we might be witnessing a candidate meltdown, as Abrams declared during a debate with Kemp on Sunday night that 107 sheriffs had endorsed her opponent, incumbent Republican Brian Kemp, because they “want to be able to take black people off the streets.” (Note that Warnock is running on his endorsements by certain sheriffs and touting his support for funding law enforcement.) […]

Abrams has been crafting a public image and running a campaign ideal for the MSNBC audience, not for the Georgia electorate. She helped chase the Major League Baseball All-Star game away from Atlanta, supports reparations for slavery, wants to repeal Georgia’s permitless-carry law and campus-carry law, opposes any limits of any kind on abortion, says that illegal immigrants should be eligible for state-funded scholarships, supports eliminating cash bail, served on the boards of organizations promoting “defund the police” . . . and then there was that infamous photo of her, maskless, surrounded by masked elementary-school kids. That is a really hard-left agenda for a candidate running in a state where Democrats didn’t win a statewide election between 2000 and 2018.

 

ABRAMS ACCUSES GEORGIA SHERIFFS OF TRYING TO ARREST ‘BLACK PEOPLE’ … FOX: Stacey Abrams slams Georgia sheriffs as ‘good ol’ boys club’ while claiming to support law enforcement

“Miss Abrams on CNN got asked the question, would she defund the police? And she said, ‘Yes, we have to reallocate resources.’ That means defunding the police. She proposed in 2018, eliminating cash bail,” Kemp said before repeating his endorsement of 107 county sheriffs across Georgia.

Abrams shot back that she was not a member of the “good ol’ boys club” of 107 sheriffs who, she allegedly, “want to be able to take Black people off the streets, who want to be able to go without accountability.”

She then qualified her statement, saying she didn’t believe “every sheriff wants that.”

“But I do know that we need a governor who believes in both defending law enforcement, but also defending the people of Georgia,” Abrams said.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1252 on: November 01, 2022, 02:58:07 PM »
"Libertarian candidate drops out of AZ Senate race."

This is HUGE!

Respect to the Libertarian candidate!!! (Name?)

DougMacG

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Senate, PA, Fetterman and fracking
« Reply #1253 on: November 01, 2022, 09:08:40 PM »


DougMacG

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Gallup, right direction, 17%
« Reply #1255 on: November 03, 2022, 05:55:58 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/02/politics/republicans-advantage-midterms-analysis/index.html

Biden upside down 40-56%.

GOP preference increasing.

This is CNN.

I think the October Surprise was that Den House and Senate candidates aren't any smarter or more honest than their President.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2022, 06:04:45 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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NRO: The Wuhan Effect
« Reply #1256 on: November 03, 2022, 07:22:56 AM »
By MICHAEL BRENDAN DOUGHERTY
November 2, 2022 6:30 AM
The government’s authoritarian overreach has shifted voters’ allegiances and redrawn the political map.
Arecent Morning Consult poll held out that the Covid-19 pandemic is just not a top-of-mind issue for voters anymore. U.S. News summed it up: “The share of voters who see the COVID-19 pandemic as a main issue in the midterm election has dropped to 31% — its lowest point since tracking began in January.”

It’s true, in the strict sense, that voters are less and less inclined to feel that politicians should filter everything through the Covid-19 prism.

But give me a break. We have just gone through a national political trauma and disruption to our way of life the likes of which we’ve never experienced before, and many never want to experience anything like it ever again. Voters currently cite the economy and inflation as their top issues, far outranking abortion and guns. Crime is often second or third in the priority list of voters, according to all pollsters. This is all downstream of Covid. We are still climbing out of our pandemic response, and our politics reflect that. The 2020 election was about Donald Trump. The 2022 election is about where you stood on Covid, and the aftermath.

Worldwide, the economic dislocations, the supply-chain problems, and inflation are all downstream of the Covid response. We spent trillions on an experiment in sudden-onset guaranteed income, which was combined with forcibly lowered productivity. So did many other governments. China is still shutting down huge sectors of its society to stop the spread of Covid, thereby slowing the manufacturing of all sorts of goods upon which worldwide industry relies. Of course inflation was going to be one result.

Pandemics are times of moral mania, going back to the Middle Ages. The mania, mid-Covid, to defund police departments after the George Floyd tragedy shattered police forces in cities such as Portland, Ore. Cities that took this turn lost experienced leadership and have remained understaffed ever since. Seattle’s own woman-of-color police chief was asked to take a pay cut before she resigned. Progressive prosecutors, such as Philadelphia’s Larry Krasner, in an effort to bring about racial justice, have refused to enforce laws against illegal gun possession. Gun crimes are on the rise, and truly appalling murders are now occurring in neighborhoods not previously known for crime. And we had the repeated spectacle of leaders selectively breaking their own draconian Covid rules in order to march with crowds of Black Lives Matter protesters.

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Whole patterns of life were upset by the Covid protocols; in the upheaval, people’s institutional allegiances shifted. Citizens in some states saw their churches closed down for more than a year. Many churches that complied with mandates out of meekness to the state, or conviction, never reopened again. They were outflanked by those shepherds who did tend their sheep in a crisis. Public schools saw enrollment decrease by 2 million students. Parochial schools saw their decade-long trend of decline suddenly shift into reverse. Private-school enrollment soared, as did the number of students being homeschooled. The sum of these facts is that the new populist orientation of individual voters organized itself under the pressure of the pandemic into new social groupings and budding institutions. These churches and schools will provide form and leadership to a prolonged populist insurgency in our politics for a long time to come.

What’s to explain the huge shift of suburban women back into the GOP fold? They haven’t forgotten Trump, who repulsed them. They know about the fall of Roe v. Wade. But many of them also remember that their little kids were masked at school — even at speech therapy — for months or years, only for health authorities to eventually call these masks “little more than useless decorations.” They see the speech delays, the social-development milestones missed, the low reading scores. They see crime rising. And local school boards that became obsessed with eliminating “whiteness” rather than illiteracy.

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Over 352,000 New Yorkers left their state from mid 2020 to mid 2021. Over 100,000 New Yorkers in 2021–22 have moved to Florida. Despite the exodus of likely Republican-leaning voters, New York governor Kathy Hochul is seen as a drag on the Democratic ticket up and down the state, and her challenger, relative unknown Lee Zeldin, is at least within striking distance, according to most polls. His standing attracted the campaigning zeal of Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin and Florida’s Ron DeSantis.

And speaking of Ron DeSantis. Can anyone even remember four years ago? He was considered a punch line by the corporate political press, an improbable victor over his opponent in a tight race, abasing himself to Trumpian populists to win. Meanwhile, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan was considered by the same press to be presidential timber. She even got a serious look to be a vice-presidential contender. Guess which one of these governors is cruising to reelection, and which one is struggling?

Now, Ron DeSantis is seen as a serious threat, not only in a run for president but toppling Donald Trump while doing so. Why? Because of his response to Covid-19. DeSantis rejected what he called “Fauci-ism” while Donald Trump kept the famous doctor front and center.

Covid-19 completely reordered our politics. This is the first election where we’ll see what that looks like.

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ on NH Senate
« Reply #1257 on: November 03, 2022, 07:25:49 PM »
Concord, N.H.

Reporters and political analysts wove a single story line through this year’s U.S. Senate races: Poor Republican candidate selection put multiple winnable races in jeopardy for the GOP. There’s truth to that. Yet its quick acceptance left an equally obvious story underreported: Many of the Democrats are terrible candidates too.

Sometimes these two story lines collide. That’s the case in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race between Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan and outsider Republican Don Bolduc. When GOP primary voters in September rejected a more experienced candidate in favor of Mr. Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, seasoned political observers agreed that Ms. Hassan had an easy path to re-election.

OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH
WSJ Opinion Potomac Watch
Joe Biden's One-Sided Fears About Democracy


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The day after Mr. Bolduc’s nomination, Vox declared national Democrats the winner. On Oct. 7, Politico declared that “New Hampshire appears increasingly out of reach for the GOP.” Now the race is a statistical tie. The two most recent polls show Mr. Bolduc nosing ahead. The outsider Republican who’s never held elective office has a real shot at beating the polished attorney whose decadeslong political résumé includes stints as state Senate president, governor and U.S. senator. Team Hassan has to be wondering how it wound up in this position.

Ms. Hassan’s campaign and the national Democratic Party were so sure they wanted to face Mr. Bolduc that the Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC spent more than $3.2 million in the Republican primary to attack his leading opponent, state Senate President Chuck Morse. Democrats and Republicans alike assumed that Mr. Morse, a 10-year veteran of the state Senate, would have broader appeal. Insiders in both parties believed the brash Mr. Bolduc would turn off independents and suburban voters. And there was the money issue. Mr. Bolduc didn’t spend a dime on TV ads during the primary. He couldn’t afford them.

Mr. Morse knew the issues, appealed to moderates, and could raise money. But Republican voters weren’t in the mood for someone who’d spent time in the political system. Vikram Mansharamani, a newcomer who ran in the primary against Messrs. Bolduc and Morse, said that everywhere he went in the state, the message from GOP voters was resounding: We want an outsider.

In Mr. Bolduc, they got one. And that’s why Ms. Hassan is in trouble. If the mood of the electorate is such that plain-spoken authenticity beats focus-grouped inauthenticity, then Ms. Hassan is at a distinct disadvantage. She is smart and accomplished, but in 20 years of public service she has carefully crafted a public persona rooted in late-1990s Democratic centrism. When she speaks to the public—which isn’t often—she is cautious to a fault. Every statement seems painstakingly crafted to mystify rather than clarify.

Mr. Bolduc still doesn’t have any money. His campaign has raised a paltry $2.2 million and spent $1.9 million. Ms. Hassan’s campaign has raised $38.2 million and spent $36 million. Despite being outgunned financially, Mr. Bolduc has managed to tie the race going into the final weekend. How?


Most obviously, Mr. Bolduc is more aligned with a majority of New Hampshire voters on the issues. He supports cutting federal spending and taxes, increasing domestic energy production, controlling the border, protecting Second Amendment rights and limiting foreign military engagements. He talks about inflation and energy prices constantly. Reluctant to draw attention to her voting record, Ms. Hassan relentlessly attacks Mr. Bolduc on abortion and Social Security. Whenever she mentions the Democratic Party, it’s to say that she stood up to it on some small, forgotten bill.

Ms. Hassan’s campaign thought Mr. Bolduc would crumble under her attacks on abortion and his previous claims, since renounced, that the 2020 election was stolen. But painting him as an extremist is a challenge in a state where many of his views are essentially mainstream.

Beyond policy, there’s culture, and here Mr. Bolduc has another advantage. He has an everyman appeal that Ms. Hassan lacks. He’s no conventional politician. Asked a question, he gives a plain and direct answer. From his regulation Army haircut to his sensible shoes, he maintains an image that many in a rural state find familiar. Nothing about him seems the slightest bit calculated.

He’s taken this show on the road, to great effect. Since losing a bid for the Republican nomination against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in 2020, he’s traveled the state in a continuous conversation with voters. He’s held dozens of town-hall meetings during this campaign, where he not only talks, he listens. At baseball games, fall fairs and town gatherings, it’s not uncommon to see Mr. Bolduc chatting amiably with strangers and letting kids pet his dog.

Ms. Hassan, by contrast, has a public persona that screams “political establishment.” She doesn’t release her public schedule, hasn’t had an open press conference in years, and studiously avoids engaging with anyone who isn’t screened by her staff. She had agreed to a debate hosted by the Nashua Chamber of Commerce, then said she would attend only if she and Mr. Bolduc weren’t on stage together.

New Hampshire is a quirky state that doesn’t mind sending unconventional outsiders to Washington. Mr. Bolduc is an outsider’s outsider. If he pulls this off, it will be an upset for the ages, due in part to his opponent’s impressive effort to maintain a protective buffer between herself and those she represents.

Mr. Cline is president of the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy.

DougMacG

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Marco Rubio, America, closing message
« Reply #1258 on: November 03, 2022, 10:24:13 PM »
Marco Rubio goes positive.

https://youtu.be/d4PJX_Ra3lw

Crafty_Dog

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1259 on: November 04, 2022, 11:59:39 AM »

ccp

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can Dr Chen be sued for malpractice ?
« Reply #1260 on: November 04, 2022, 02:14:00 PM »
https://apnews.com/article/mehmet-oz-2022-midterm-elections-health-business-stroke-cd5e3188b74933566ba5a8f95b2c426f

any doctor who claims Fetterman is qualified to be a US Senator should have license revoked

 :wink:

I know I am not in that situation but I would refuse to write such a letter
plus dr chen is. a PCP like me,  and we are not  brain experts specialist in strokes,

though OTOH, you don't need to be a brain expert to see the guy is not qualified!
« Last Edit: November 04, 2022, 02:15:54 PM by ccp »

ccp

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This is VERY interesting
« Reply #1261 on: November 05, 2022, 10:22:22 AM »

DougMacG

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Congressional races, The Chief weighs in
« Reply #1262 on: November 07, 2022, 09:05:03 AM »
Shut down coal across the nation
“We’re going to be shutting these (coal) plants down all across America and having wind and solar power.”

(Doug)  Of course he means clean natural gas as well.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2022/11/joe-biden-boasts-about-plans-to-shut-down-coal-plants-all-across-america-three-days-before-midterms/

(Doug) 38,000 Terawatt hours worth?  There is some math the bungling chief never pondered before he started shutting off our heat and shutting down our transportation and drove this economy into a tailspin.


It reminds me of the big mistake Republicans are making (as usual) this cycle.  We don't want your vote for this one candidate on your ballot this Tuesday.  We want you to join the cause for freedom, including the freedom from government imposed poverty.  That fight includes your vote now, up and down the ballot, and goes MUCH further than this Tuesday, no matter the outcome of the election.

BTW, somebody please remind me to vote tomorrow morning.   )


ccp

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Trump like a sprinter who can't wait to take off
« Reply #1263 on: November 07, 2022, 02:03:19 PM »
aids must be holding him back

with chains

maybe they can stuff toilet paper down that volcano of a mouth of his

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/trump-might-announce-hes-running-in-2024-as-soon-as-tonight.html

wonder if GM will vote harder tomorrow ?



DougMacG

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Re: Trump like a sprinter who can't wait to take off
« Reply #1264 on: November 07, 2022, 04:19:03 PM »
aids must be holding him back

with chains

maybe they can stuff toilet paper down that volcano of a mouth of his

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/trump-might-announce-hes-running-in-2024-as-soon-as-tonight.html

wonder if GM will vote harder tomorrow ?

"The man wants attention."

I heard he will be on the radio show Clay / Buck, and they hinted strongly he may have something to announce.  [Update:  I think he will announce his announcement date, Nov 15.]

Those trying to win tomorrow want so much for this to be a referendum on Biden not Trump.

Arguably he screwed up the Senate in the GA runoff Dec 2020.  Look at the damage that caused, every party line vote of the last two years!  Trillions of dollars wasted and double digit inflation the result.  Did he forget we may have one more of those?  Screw this up (again) and I'll never forgive him.

He is three years younger than Joe Biden.  He will be older in the next term than Biden is in this one.

I'll say now, I'm for someone else until he is the best choice remaining.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2022, 09:27:10 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1265 on: November 08, 2022, 06:32:19 AM »
"I'll say now, I'm for someone else until he is the best choice remaining."

Well said.

ccp

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Byron York : '22 was not about Trump
« Reply #1266 on: November 08, 2022, 07:56:50 AM »
athough Democrats and of course Trump desperately wanted it to be

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-campaign-that-wasnt-about-trump

DougMacG

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Congressional races, waiting for results
« Reply #1267 on: November 08, 2022, 05:38:09 PM »
Waiting for results.  Bolduc lost big, NH, that's bad.

Update:  At this hour, midnight eastern, it almost all looks bad to me.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2022, 09:12:49 PM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1268 on: November 08, 2022, 11:08:54 PM »
Fetterman wins.  I don't see a path to saving this country that includes losing that race under these circumstances.
----------

I don't know what all the final results will be but it's not too early to say I was wrong.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 04:00:30 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1269 on: November 09, 2022, 05:25:57 AM »
".I don't know what all the final results will be but it's not too early to say I was wrong."

and so was and is Trump

the mail in ballots since corona have screwed us over
they had their ballot collecting machines in progress

To think we could beat a stroked out person with heart failure who walks around with a hoodie and never had a real job ....

people could simply not stomach Oz - thanks Trump

people could not stomach Mastriano - thanks Trump

Youngkin and Desantis who stayed away from Trump do well.

I am not sure how much abortion hurt us but surely it did.

But I agree,  if we can't do better in this economy and with 70% saying they don't like the direction of the country then the country is lost

expect to see GM back posting soon .

he is right about likely long term outcome just not about what to do about it - simply give up
and squirrel away in the woods somewhere - or at least yet



ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1270 on: November 09, 2022, 05:29:10 AM »
the only good news [for me] is this is curtains for Trump

though he will continue to beat his chest like and enraged gorilla...


ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1271 on: November 09, 2022, 05:40:08 AM »
I would also say open borders has helped Dems as designed to do. look at the whole southwest

which used to red

the reparations and affirmative action for Blacks keeps their attention

I don't know why they keep electing those who have not helped them but they do






DougMacG

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1272 on: November 09, 2022, 12:15:24 PM »
Note:  I deleted some overly optimistic thoughts of mine replaced by the statement:  "I was wrong."

Afterthoughts:
1.  ccp's post on the under 30 crowd.  We didn't even target them and probably don't know how.  We did scoff at student debt forgiveness.  Don't scoff at vote buying.  It's the most reliable trick in the Left arsenal.
2.  There were candidates in NH and PA more electable than the ones chosen.  Maybe so for Arizona too.  Maybe so for Herschel Walker.  All these had in common Trump backing at least partly based on loyalty to him.  In some of these, AZ and NH at least, Republican Leader withheld support, based at least partly on personal loyalty to him.

Dump these "leaders".  We need to start over.

Update:. McConnell poured millions into Alaska opposing the Republican endorsed candidate as well.
https://alaskapublic.org/2021/07/26/alaska-gop-gives-murkowski-a-thumbs-down-nationally-republicans-still-give-her-campaign-cash/

For years republicans repeated each cycle the old expression, we need the next Reagan, until we couldn't stand hearing it again.  There wasn't one.  (Not even H.W. or Bob Dole!)

We need the next Reagan now.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2022, 01:13:33 PM by DougMacG »

ccp

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Jason Miller : all up to Herschel
« Reply #1273 on: November 09, 2022, 02:05:11 PM »
we got to get Herschel over the goal line

https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/jason-miller-donald-trump-herschel-walker/2022/11/09/id/1095662/

I can't believe it is coming down to Ga AGAIN

we need the entire Republican team to step onto the offensive line!!

Crafty_Dog

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Patriot Post
« Reply #1274 on: November 09, 2022, 02:37:35 PM »
A Big Winner and Two Losers From Yesterday's Midterms
Ron DeSantis stole the show yesterday, but a key swing state and a former president lost unequivocally.

Douglas Andrews


Just one day before the 2018 gubernatorial election in Florida, a Quinnipiac poll showed Republican Ron DeSantis trailing former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by a whopping seven points.

Lucky for DeSantis — and lucky for the people of Florida — that voters, not polls, decide elections. The following day, DeSantis ended up winning by seven-tenths of a point. Since then, the governor has enacted staunchly conservative policies, waded into the culture wars against Disney and its ilk, and counterpunched smartly at a mainstream media that's inclined to twist the news against him at every turn.

Yesterday, DeSantis won 62 of the state's 67 counties and beat Democrat challenger Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points. Where he won by some 30,00 votes in 2018, he won by 1,500,000 yesterday. Yes, by Election Day, everyone was predicting a DeSantis win. No one, though, was predicting a win of this magnitude.

If you're not stirred by this Churchillian passage from his victory speech last night, you might want to check your pulse:

We have embraced freedom. We have maintained law and order. We have protected the rights of parents. We have respected our taxpayers, and we reject woke ideology.

We fight the woke in the legislature. We fight the woke in the schools. We fight the woke in the corporations. We will never ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die!

"USA! USA!" some supporters chanted during DeSantis's rousing victory speech in Tampa last night. "Two more years! Two more years!" others shouted, in a not-so-subtle call for DeSantis to run for president in 2024.

"We saw freedom and our very way of life in so many other jurisdictions in this country wither on the vine. Florida held the line," he said. "Florida was a refuge of sanity when the world went mad. We stood as a citadel of freedom for people across this county and indeed across the world."

DeSantis thus sent a thunderclap across the political landscape, and he made Florida look like Arkansas in terms of its political imbalance. Indeed, it's the first time since Reconstruction that Florida hasn't had a single Democrat holding statewide office.

So Ron DeSantis and the people of Florida were big winners yesterday. But there were big losers, too. Among them: The people of Pennsylvania.

In the darkest moment of yesterday's election, the least qualified, least capable, furthest left candidate, John Fetterman, prevailed over a heart surgeon and highly successful businessman, Republican Mehmet Oz. Perhaps the worst part of this outcome was that nearly a million Pennsylvanians had cast their ballots before Fetterman's painful and utterly disqualifying debate performance. So now Pennsylvania will send to The World's Greatest Deliberative Body a man who is medically incapable of deliberating at any real depth, a man who has hardly held a real job in his life, and a man whose past policy prescriptions include freeing convicted murderers, creating heroin-injection sites, and banning fracking.

Another loser was Donald Trump. Things clearly didn't go the former president's way last night. There was no red wave, and there was no streak of wins by Trump-endorsed Republicans. There were, however, large and glaringly high-profile losses for Trump candidates, including Oz, Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano, Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, New Hampshire Senate candidate Don Bolduc, and, it appears, Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters. Kari Lake is down but not yet out in the governor's race in Arizona.

And two candidates whom Trump publicly opposed — Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — won big last night, while Trump's candidate for Senate there, Herschel Walker, appears to have barely limped his way into a December 6 runoff against hard-left Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock. Walker may yet win that runoff, and the GOP may yet eke out a 51-49 Senate, but that doesn't discount the weakness of Walker's candidacy — a candidacy that caused some 200,000 Georgians to split their tickets by voting for both Kemp and Warnock.

Let's wrap up by going back to the big winner, Ron DeSantis: "We have accomplished more than anybody thought possible four years ago," he said toward the end of his victory speech, "but we've got so much more to do — and I have only begun to fight."

That last part was a reference to a fellow sailor and patriot, John Paul Jones, and it would serve his fellow Republicans well to remember it going forward. Conservative principles are attractive and popular when articulately conveyed and competently carried out.

But candidates clearly matter to Republican voters. And that message must be remembered as well.


Crafty_Dog

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Why Walker May Fare Worse in a Runoff
« Reply #1276 on: November 10, 2022, 01:49:02 AM »
Did not realize he was "no exception on abortion".

Why Herschel Walker may fare worse in a runoff
Opinion by Tiana Lowe - Yesterday 3:31 AM




Outside of the red bloodbath of Florida helmed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, election night proved a pittance for the Republican Party. Dr. Mehmet Oz, former President Donald Trump's hand-picked Senate candidate for Pennsylvania, lost to a barely sentient stroke victim, and the possible pickups of Nevada and Arizona have receded from the GOP's grasp. Mere hours after conservative pollsters proudly predicted the party would close out the midterm elections with 53 or even 54 seats in the Senate, control of the chamber may yet again come down to a Georgia runoff.

When Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue lost their runoff elections in January 2021, that was a calculated choice, the obvious consequence of Donald Trump lying in service of his own ego that the Georgia elections were stolen. This time, however, Republican prospects are in peril without Trump's meddling.


For starters, Herschel Walker would head to a runoff election without the significant coattails of Brian Kemp, who won reelection for governor by nearly double digits. Oz suffered the spillover effects of Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano. While Kemp's popularity may have kept incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock from reaching the crucial majority share of the vote this time, in a standalone election, Walker may not be so lucky.

Furthermore, Walker benefited from the distraction of Democrats, who were stuck focusing on flawed candidates across the country. The former football player's numerous personal scandals, including allegations that he paid for multiple mistresses' abortions, evaded the spotlight as the media focused on issues ranging from inflation and crime to internecine party warfare. However, for a matter of weeks, Walker v. Warnock would be the only race in the country.


Warnock is hardly purer than the driven snow. Recall that Warnock's wife alleged that the Democrat reneged on his court-ordered child support and that he ran over her with his car, but Walker is a candidate who has said he wants to ban abortion without exceptions for rape or incest. He's not just accused of being a philandering deadbeat dad; he's accused of hypocrisy over one of the most divisive political issues of our time.

It's possible that the consequences of Democrats controlling the Senate sink in, and Georgia voters ultimately bite the bullet and vote based on party preference rather than personal loyalty. But Walker had ample coattails and limited national attention on Tuesday, and it still seems like he blew it. That doesn't bode well for yet another risky Republican runoff.

ccp

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AOC wins by over 40%
« Reply #1277 on: November 10, 2022, 05:24:57 AM »
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-new-york-us-house-district-14.html

looks like she will with future generations  long after we are gone ......

demographics of 14 th Congressional district :

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/50000US3614-congressional-district-14-ny/

foreign born 44%

speak language other then English at home:

age 18+ - > 41%
less than 18 -> 45 % (even higher! )



DougMacG

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Election aftermath:
« Reply #1278 on: November 10, 2022, 08:58:45 AM »
Steve Hayward Wed morning: 
"Democrats are certain to take their relative success as evidence that there is nothing wrong with their message or their policies."
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/11/wot-happened-2.php


Pres. Biden Wed afternoon:
"We're going to do nothing different after the midterm election."
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/11/09/biden_were_going_to_do_nothing_different_after_midterm_election.html
« Last Edit: November 10, 2022, 09:01:37 AM by DougMacG »

ccp

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more thoughts
« Reply #1279 on: November 10, 2022, 09:17:07 AM »
"Democrats are certain to take their relative success as evidence that there is nothing wrong with their message or their policies."

AND CONVERSELY THE REPUBLICANS WILL SAY THE PROBLEM IS GETTING THE MESSAGE OUT

we have problems not simply getting messaging out
but with the messages

something is missing
I don't understand how pollsters could SO FAR off - even our conservative pollsters

not clear to me how much is ballot harvesting , abortion, lack of anything about climate change (for the younger generation )

or threats to government spending
HALF THE FREAKING COUNTRY NOW RELIES ON

I remember during 1/6 riot a cabbie had picked me up to a podiatry visit (I had broken foot)
We were listening to the capital breaking and entering on the radio

somewhere in the conversation he said he was grateful for the government assistance during corona . "ok with me if they want to send me a check"

this is a BIG problem

I don't know how we can compete
as long as it is someone else's money
somehow we have to convince people THEY  will also have to pay up in the end if this continues

Thatcher
socialism works till you run out of other people's money




DougMacG

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Congressional races, |CNN Exit polling
« Reply #1280 on: November 10, 2022, 09:39:31 AM »
Married men:  R +20

Married women:  R +14

Unmarried men:  R +7

Unmarried women:  D +37

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house/21
https://www.dailywire.com/news/exit-poll-shows-nearly-70-of-single-women-voted-democrat-in-midterms
------------------------------

In my search for someone compatible, I seem to be targeting the wrong group.

ccp

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unmarried women
« Reply #1281 on: November 10, 2022, 10:02:40 AM »
Unmarried women:  D +37

Doug

very interesting

do we know why?

my guess :

1) abortion
2) they want government to be their sugar daddy

and with over 50% of mothers now being unmarried this is devastating

breakdown of nuclear family marriage and fact it is almost a badge of courage to state "I am a single mother!"

I see it occasionally in medical practice

would stopping abortion simply make the problem worse?

where are all the God darn fathers ?


DougMacG

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Re: more thoughts
« Reply #1282 on: November 10, 2022, 10:17:22 AM »
ccp:  "I don't understand how pollsters could SO FAR off - even our conservative pollsters"

   - The Republican pollsters tried to correct for the (past) silent Trump vote, but like the Republican messengers, did not know how to reach young voters.  My daughter's phone ringer is always off...

"not clear to me how much is ballot harvesting"

  - On this topic, I hope we wait for real, prosecutable evidence, and not get scorched by speculation and false starts.

"abortion"

   - Republicans pro life (me included) need to tone down the laws to match public opinion.  What 50% think is not murder and can easily be done by crossing state lines should not be murder equivalent in law.  We had some agreement at 15 weeks (?), plus exception for rape incest and life of the mother.  Also by determining laws state by state.  We need to find the right political answer and have some party discipline to stick to it.  Candidates and politicians espousing a no exceptions rhetoric are killing us on this issue. 

None of that says you can't argue that life is precious and convenience abortions as a woman's right is a denial of science.

ccp:  "lack of anything about climate change (for the younger generation )"

   - Yes!  Let's come back to this.  Let's develop a real plan and message.

ccp:  "or threats to government spending"  ... "this is a BIG problem"
 ... somehow we have to convince people THEY  will also have to pay up in the end"

   - Right.  This is the hardest sell.  No bumper sticker will do it.

Take the under 30 voters right now.  It is THEY who will have to pay for this.

Even the ones supposedly receiving 10 or 20,000 right now.  In total, they will pay for this and they are paying for it right now.  Their education, for one thing, was SO expensive because of programs like this.  It's hard to explain second level thinking, but making it all free would make it even more expensive!

In the art of persuasion, telling people they're wrong has not been working for me.

ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1283 on: November 10, 2022, 10:32:14 AM »
"In the art of persuasion, telling people they're wrong has not been working for me."

I am not a parent
but telling children something that will affect them in the distant future

against their more immediate needs and urges must be very difficult

they have been persuaded by the LEFT that climate change is real and a huge threat

now we have to persuade them there is a right and a wrong way to deal with

and yes hard to do against a DNC that owns academia , media, big tech, global elites

 this is our delema


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Re: unmarried women
« Reply #1284 on: November 10, 2022, 10:39:07 AM »
quote author=ccp

Unmarried women:  D +37

Doug

very interesting

do we know why?

my guess :

1) abortion
2) they want government to be their sugar daddy

and with over 50% of mothers now being unmarried this is devastating ...
--------------------------

First I laugh at the idea of me opining on the liberalism of unmarried women.  Who understands it less than me?

Abortion, yes.  Most have come to believe abortion is empowering to women. 

On the second point, not sugar daddy but their financial security.  Like a husband with a solid career and earnings and big life insurance policy is.

1)  Why do we have to scare them with overreach we can never enact.  Even in deep red states, be aware your rhetoric is hurting the national political cause.  We got Roe, a wrongly decided case, overturned.  Take a breath for a moment and read the will of the people.

2) Another case of second level thinking, so hard to sell.  Like the cab driver, I cashed my check.

We want a robust economy with a real safety net - for real people in real need.  Not a manipulated system with government the main operator in every industry.  If I knew how to sell that, we wouldn't be having this conversation. (

Even prosperity makes women (all people) want to give back more, help others.  But 'giving back' and coercive taking are two different things, intentionally conflated.

ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1285 on: November 10, 2022, 10:53:47 AM »
"not sugar daddy but their financial security."

haha

yes you are right

no *sex* in return

just their vote !

is vote for money a form of prostitution?

Crafty_Dog

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1286 on: November 10, 2022, 12:41:40 PM »
"We got Roe, a wrongly decided case, overturned.  Take a breath for a moment and read the will of the people."

Contrast Herschel Walker; if I have it right, no abortion for raped women.

DougMacG

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1287 on: November 10, 2022, 04:57:57 PM »
"We got Roe, a wrongly decided case, overturned.  Take a breath for a moment and read the will of the people."

Contrast Herschel Walker; if I have it right, no abortion for raped women.

Walking it back.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/14/walker-warnock-georgia-abortion-00061971

DougMacG

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What Herschel (and others) should have said on abortion
« Reply #1288 on: November 11, 2022, 05:42:59 AM »
What Herschel (and others) should have said on abortion:

The Supreme Court returned the issue to the states.  I'm running for federal office.

ccp

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McConnell will live on to rule Senate as minority or majority leader
« Reply #1289 on: November 11, 2022, 08:31:15 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/rick-scott-mitch-mcconnell-senate/2022/11/11/id/1095923/

I am very ambivalent  of him
certainly some shenanigans with his wife finances
among other concerns

DougMacG

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Re: McConnell will live on to rule Senate as minority or majority leader
« Reply #1290 on: November 11, 2022, 09:57:01 AM »
It's time for new leaders but we don't need a public fight over it right now, not until Georgia is settled.

Regarding Scott, McConnell and Trump, there is enough blame to go around.  McCarthy vastly underperformed as well.  Better start pulling together, or get used to losing. 

McConnell is some kind of expert on process and legislative strategy.  Staffers could provide that guidance.  We need a public face, voice and message to represent us, especially as the minority or opposition party.

This isn't a sporting event.  It's our country we are losing.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1291 on: November 11, 2022, 10:38:09 AM »
Black Republicans elected to Congress in historic numbers

McDaniel: Minority engagement is ‘paying off’

BY KERRY PICKET THE WASHINGTON TIMES

At least five Black Republican lawmakers will serve concurrently in Congress next year, a number the GOP has not seen since the early 1870s.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, Reps. Burgess Owens of Utah, Byron Donalds of Florida, Reps.-elect John James of Michigan and Wesley Hunt of Texas will serve in the 118th Congress together.

Mr. Hunt was recruited by House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California to run in Texas’ 38th Congressional District. Mr. James, who graduated from West Point with Mr. Hunt and roomed with him at the military academy, won the race for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District.

Janiyah Thomas, the Black media affairs manager at the Republican National Committee, heralded the “new group of diverse leaders in the party.”

“Under the leadership of RNC Chairwoman Ronna Mc-Daniel, Republicans have been making inroads with Black voters by showing up in our communities and listening to Black voters at our RNC community centers,” she said in a statement to The Washington Times. “The Republican National Committee has made minority engagement a top priority and it is paying off. America is lucky to have these newly elected officials that will restore our country” Although the number is small compared to Black Democrats who had 55 Black members from congressional districts and two delegates from the District of Columbia and the U.S. Virgin Islands in the 117th Congress, it is still a new highwater mark for GOP diversity on Capitol Hill.

Horace Cooper, chairman of the Project 21 National Advisory Board, said that the significant gains by Black conservatives are evidence that the “freedom message is penetrating Black America.”

“It’s family, it’s faith. It’s personal responsibility that are going to solve the problems in the Black American community, and now with new leaders in Washington. That idea is likely to get a number of proponents to tackle and push,” he said.

The first five Black members of Congress, all Republicans, were sworn into the 42nd Congress in 1871. Their ranks increased to seven by 1873. That remained until the beginning of the 45th Congress in 1877, when the number of Black Republicans decreased to just three lawmakers.

That number continued to dwindle following the end of Reconstruction in the South. Between 1901 to 1929, no Black GOP lawmakers served in Congress.

After Rep. Oscar Stanton DePriest of Illinois left office in 1935, Congress had no Black Republicans until Rep. Gary Franks of Connecticut took the oath of office in 1991.

The number of Black Democrats in Congress has grown steadily every decade since 1935, starting with Rep. Arthur Mitchell of Illinois.

Back in March, the National Republican Congressional Committee this year counted 81 Black candidates running as Republicans in 72 congressional districts, up from 27 in the 2020 election cycle.

The NRCC called the number at the time “a record in the modern era” for the party

DougMacG

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Congressional races, Mike Lee, Utah, wins
« Reply #1292 on: November 11, 2022, 12:19:12 PM »
I didn't notice this one, Mike Lee won 55-41.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/utah-senate-results

No thanks to Mitt.

If you count McMuffin as a Republican, Republicans won 96 to something like 0.

ccp

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Re: The US Congress; Congressional races
« Reply #1293 on: November 11, 2022, 02:09:11 PM »
"I didn't notice this one, Mike Lee won 55-41"

 :-D

and that was the race in which a former R ran as an I with democrat funding
is that right!

both are "friends of Mitt"

yes I remember now

my nephew worked for Mitt back in '12
not sure if he would tell me what he thinks of Mitt now
he is very careful with his words   :wink:

DougMacG

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Congressional races, Vance, Ohio
« Reply #1294 on: November 11, 2022, 04:42:30 PM »
Great article I think about how Vance won by 7 in Ohio.

This is how it should go in 50 states.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2022, 05:11:43 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Kelly wins in AZ
« Reply #1295 on: November 12, 2022, 08:18:03 AM »
Arizona Republican Hopeful Blake Masters Loses Senate Race to Dem Incumbent Mark Kelly
By ARI BLAFF
November 11, 2022 10:59 PM

Following the release of a new batch of votes by Arizona’s Maricopa County on Friday night, it became clear that incumbent Democratic senator Mark Kelly had held off the challenge by Republican hopeful Blake Masters, multiple media outlets reported.

Masters failed to close the gap of roughly six percentage points, with a margin Friday night of 51.8 percent to 46.1 percent. Approximately 120,000 votes separated the two candidates, with nearly 2.2 million ballots cast.

Pollsters had projected the Arizona Senate race on Election Day to be a virtual dead heat.

Although Masters has trailed Kelly consistently in the vote tallying since Tuesday, media outlets have been hesitant to declare the incumbent the winner, given the large percentage of outstanding votes across the state.

Vote-counting woes have continued to plague Arizona since residents went to the ballot box Tuesday for the midterm elections. By Friday evening, less than 80 percent of the overall Senate votes had been counted and verified, according to the New York Times.

However, the newly released ballots have cleared up any uncertainty.

Masters was initially spurned by Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell and relied on his boss and close Trump ally, Peter Thiel, for financial backing and support. In recent weeks, Masters ratcheted up his denunciations of establishment conservatives such as McConnell, saying the senator would “not own me” and that he would operate more detached from strict party lines.

Masters ran a considerably less competitive race than Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has narrowed the gap with her Democratic opponent, Arizona secretary of state Katie Hobbs. That race has yet to be called.


DougMacG

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Re: Kelly wins in AZ
« Reply #1297 on: November 12, 2022, 09:29:27 AM »
September, McConnell pulls funding from Blake Masters.

It's hard to run against both parties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/20/slf-arizona-senate-funding/

DougMacG

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Congressional races, Herschel Walker, GA
« Reply #1298 on: November 12, 2022, 10:22:07 AM »
Herschel Walker - more than a stump speech.  This video came up for me after the officer Tatum video.

Very good speech, full of wisdom and passion.  Don't tell me he's a weak candidate!   )

https://youtu.be/tjw4DKzvIhc

ccp

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Sean Spicer
« Reply #1299 on: November 12, 2022, 11:52:46 AM »
sean spicer - when it is pointed out how much Dems outspent Repubs in all these vulnerable races that loss -

he puts the fundraising blame squarely on the candidates

he criticized Republicans who lost for not going out and raising their OWN funds

they all sat around waiting for funding to be handed over but he says they completely ignored the most important part of campaigning - raising money!

he was a newsmax show 2 to 3 days ago pointing this out

but I cannot find it now.

anyone else see this?