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Starving the Hungry Tapeworm: How Businessmen May Reform Health Care Cost
Laurence F. McMahon Jr., MD, MPH; Vineet Chopra, MD, MSc
In 2016, U.S. health care spending reached $3.3 trillion, a figure representing 17.9% of the nation's gross domestic product. Sadly, the skyrocketing cost of health care is not headline news. Rather, as aptly summarized by Warren Buffett, “The ballooning costs of health care act as a hungry tapeworm on the American economy” (1). Like a tapeworm, our health care cost problem degrades the overall vitality of our economy. Therefore, news that the CEOs of Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway, and JPMorgan Chase are coming together to combat health care cost has been met with anticipation and skepticism (1): anticipation—because these business giants may help solve what ails our health system—but also skepticism—because what do highly successful entrepreneurs, investment bankers, and money managers know about health care? Could blindness to the usual approaches to reducing health care cost be a strength?
After all, it's not as if health care costs have been ignored. The health system has been subjected to several innovations focused on decreasing the cost of care. We have seen the rise of HMOs (now ACOs [accountable care organizations]) with incentives for health systems to lower cost and improve outcomes. Likewise, efforts have been undertaken to identify and target patients who receive costly—and sometimes unnecessary—interventions. Even changing how we pay for services, from diagnosis-related groups to resource-based relative value systems for hospital and physician payment, has not bent the cost curve. Furthermore, studies, including a recent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, have highlighted how all these approaches have failed (2, 3).
In contrast, a principal strength of the collaboration among Buffett, Jeff Bezos, and Jamie Dimon is that these 3 highly successful businessmen operate outside the health care delivery structure. Thus, their decisions do not come with the inherent conflict of those who are subject to the results of those decisions. We do not yet know what tactic they will use to address health costs. On one hand, they may wield their collective influence or market power merely to gain discounts for their employees or to promote products they wish to develop. If they do so, they will only become part of the problem, because obtaining price discounts is rampant, from Medicaid to Blue Cross plans. Fortunately, reports suggest that this will not be the case; rather, the new partnership will not seek to profit from health care, as many others have done (4). What, then, might their approach look like?
Health care expenses may be quantified simply by multiplying the cost of a service by its volume. To decrease health care cost, one has to decrease the price of a service, the volume of the service, or both. Thus, regardless of the approach, the end result must affect price or volume (3). We anticipate that these industry leaders will use a business strategy to address this deceptively simple equation. One such method might be Six Sigma (5).
In brief, Six Sigma is a structured, stepwise approach to improve a process: define, measure, analyze, improve, and control. The first step is to define the structure of the health care cost problem. In doing so, several truths are revealed, one of which is that cost is not evenly distributed. For example, we learn that 5% of patients consume 50% of health care cost (6). The second step in Six Sigma is measurement. During this phase, we learn that patients individually are not the problem. In fact, efforts concentrating on individual patients to control cost have never succeeded. Rather, “high-cost” patients are consumers of high-cost services (such as major surgery, cancer treatment, and trauma care). The third step, analysis, focuses on quantifying the value of a service. For example, for some patients, a service may be life saving (for example, a cardiac stent for a patient with acute myocardial infarction). In contrast, for patients with stable angina, the same procedure has substantially less clinical value. Any businessperson would recognize that paying the same for these services with disparate clinical value makes little sense. We expect this will be a key change in the next phase, improvement. We believe that these business pioneers will push for either a decrease in specific services or “repricing” of services that are of low clinical value.
After all, this approach mirrors the structure commonly seen in the consumer marketplace and is most familiar to these business leaders. The creation of a market structure built around relative clinical value has the net effect of both directly affecting the price component of the health care cost equation and, by lowering the price point, sending a signal to decrease the volume of the service. To follow through with the cardiac stent example, the price of the less efficacious use of the service in patients with stable angina would be set lower than its most efficacious use in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. Thus, hospitals and health systems would focus on redirecting resources to higher-margin activities and not invest where they lose payment. In the final Six Sigma step, control, we expect an emphasis on ensuring that the price and volume of low–clinical value services do not increase to offset the price-based savings. Such control will probably require a multifaceted approach, including interfacing with Medicare and private payers to promote similar messages.
How may these changes be executed through a Six Sigma–like process? We expect that these corporate leaders will turn to disruptive technologies to help keep costs low. Just like Amazon dabbled with drones to lower package delivery costs and JPMorgan Chase revolutionized banking through apps, many processes in health care are ripe for innovation. For example, annual health checks (which are controversial given their dubious value) (7) might be automated through publicly available health kiosks that measure blood pressure and blood sugar, and then dispense medications or make referrals if warranted. This is hardly science fiction. Indeed, technology-heavy kiosks that do all this and more are currently available (
. Likewise, virtual consultation with physicians (through an Uber for Doctors–like app) might improve access and wait times while reducing costs—doing to health care facilities what Uber did to taxis. In addition, gaming strategies to promote healthier eating and living (á la Pokémon, which already has been shown to improve activity among sedentary populations) (9) are just a few examples of changes that may be emphasized by these visionaries. Of importance, all these concepts will focus on controlling (and reducing) health care costs—bending the supply-and-demand curve that currently relies on large hospitals and health systems.
Business leaders of the caliber of Bezos, Buffett, and Dimon, who are not steeped in the biases of health care pundits, can provide a fresh look at our cost problem. We believe their use of a business approach will ultimately lead to the repricing of much of what we do in health care. Just as an item with a 1-star rating on Amazon or a poorly performing mortgage product from JPMorgan Chase is quickly removed or repriced, so too could such a business value system change the health care cost problem. Although Medicare is moving to a “value-based” payment system, the pace of that movement is too timid and slow. Moreover, the current political climate (and that of Medicare itself) guarantees incremental not revolutionary progress. The business focus has fewer constraints and has the necessary bottom-line paradigm to be effective. If we do not focus on prices and value (10), we will not be able to starve our hungry tapeworm—and that, quite simply, is bad medicine.
References
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