Author Topic: Pathological Science  (Read 551418 times)

DougMacG

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Body-by-Guinness

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Re: Scientist left out full truth to get published
« Reply #1251 on: May 21, 2024, 12:43:16 PM »
https://phys.org/news/2023-09-scientist-left-full-truth-climate.html

"When it comes to science, Nature does not have a preferred narrative," says Editor in Chief Magdalena Skipper. Sure thing, Maggie. Kindly list all the articles published in Nature that take issue with climate alarmism. I'll wait.

But no, instead she cops to publishing pieces that, gasp, consider forest management practices and their role in wildfires. For her next act she'll cite all the pieces that acknowledge water is wet, the heterodox harlot!

The reflexive denials and kill-the-messenger habits tell us all we need to understand here.

Body-by-Guinness

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The Sky Only Falls Like This Once Every 7.5 Billion Years!!!!
« Reply #1252 on: May 22, 2024, 08:46:59 PM »
I’ve been running into this Antarctic-Ice-is-at-an-all-time-low alarmism among various Usual Suspects (it’s like they coordinate this stuff or something, eh?); this vid takes that foolishness apart. And yes, the 7.5 billion claim on 3.5 billion year old earth is indeed made with not only a straight face, but an ever so alarmed one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt9KMlJVVas&t=319s
« Last Edit: May 22, 2024, 08:51:18 PM by Body-by-Guinness »

ccp

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Climate change began with colonialism
« Reply #1253 on: May 26, 2024, 03:13:20 PM »
esp. the British
in Palestine

now it continues with those darn Jews in Palestine:

https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/05/26/the-epa-says-palestine-is-a-climate-justice-issue-n4929354

15 % of Muslims need to stay in their own nations   :x  You don't like it here go back.
What does one call Caliphates if not a form colonialism
What does one call convert or kill all the infidels if not an iteration of  colonialism, and worse.

Body-by-Guinness

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Hottest Summah Evah
« Reply #1254 on: May 28, 2024, 05:34:42 PM »
Steve McIntyre is one of the gents that backward engineered the source code for the fallacious “Hockey Stick” foolishness purveyed by Michael Mann. Here he also takes apart the current “hottest summer” handwringing. Piece is graphics heavy so only the conclusion is posted below:

Conclusion

Whether or not the comparison of an observed temperature point to the confidence envelope of a reconstruction to draw conclusions about “warmest year in 1000 years” was precisely what either Mann or Jones defined as “Mike’s Nature trick”, it can be fairly described as a trick (sensu mathematics), whereas plotting an estimate and observed on same figure is so commonplace and trivial that it cannot reasonably be described as a trick (sensu mathematics.)

In that spirit, I think that it is fair to describe “Mike’s Nature trick” (and the similar trick employed by Esper et al 2024) as a confidence trick.  In the mathematical sense, of course.

As a caveat, readers should note that the question of whether tree rings (ancient or otherwise) show that 2023 (1998) was the warmest summer (year) in 1000 or 2000 years is a different question than whether 2023 was the warmest summer in 1000 years.  My elevator take is

that 20th and 21st century warming are both very real, but that the 19th century was probably the coldest century since the Last Glacial Maximum and that the warming since the 19th century has been highly beneficial for our societies – a view that was postulated in the 1930s by Guy Callendar, one of the canonical climate heroes;

per Esper et al 2012, given the failure of tree ring chronologies to reflect major millennial-scale changes in summer insolation and temperature, what possible reliance can be attached to pseudo-confidence intervals attached to 2000-year tree ring chronologies in Esper et al 2024 (or any other tree ring chronologies)

in addition, we know that there is global-scale “greening” of the planet over the past 30-40 years that has been convincingly attributed to enhanced growth due to fertilization by higher CO2 levels. So, in addition to all other issues related to tree ring chronologies, it is necessary to disaggregate the contribution of CO2 fertilization from the contribution of increased warming – an effort not made by Esper et al 2024 (or its references.)

In a follow-up article, I will examine details of the Esper et al 2024 reconstruction, which, among other interesting features, connect back to Graybill bristlecone sites and the Briffa sites under discussion in the period leading up to the Climategate emails.

https://climateaudit.org/2024/05/24/jan-and-ulfs-nature-trick-the-hottest-summer-in-2000-years/

Body-by-Guinness

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The Implosion of the Paper Mills
« Reply #1255 on: May 28, 2024, 06:41:33 PM »
2nd post. There are a fair number of folks writing about paper mills, citation fraud, and related problems in science. Don’t see much about the 800 lbs. gorilla in the room: climate “science,” where IMO the perverse incentive are ever so amplified. As that may be, a well written piece re paper mills and related topics:


Why Scientific Fraud Is Suddenly Everywhere
 Portrait of Kevin T. Dugan

By Kevin T. Dugan, staff writer at Intelligencer, who covers money and business

 Marc Tessier-Lavigne, the president of Stanford University, in Palo Alto, Calif. on May 2, 2022. (Carolyn Fong/The New York Times)
Marc Tessier-Lavigne, who resigned as president of Stanford University in 2023. Photo: Carolyn Fong/The New York Times/Redux

Junk science has been forcing a reckoning among scientific and medical researchers for the past year, leading to thousands of retracted papers. Last year, Stanford president Marc Tessier-Lavigne resigned amid reporting that some of his most high-profile work on Alzheimer’s disease was at best inaccurate. (A probe commissioned by the university’s board of trustees later exonerated him of manipulating the data).

But the problems around credible science appear to be getting worse. Last week, scientific publisher Wiley decided to shutter 19 scientific journals after retracting 11,300 sham papers. There is a large-scale industry of so-called “paper mills” that sell fictive research, sometimes written by artificial intelligence, to researchers who then publish it in peer-reviewed journals — which are sometimes edited by people who had been placed by those sham groups. Among the institutions exposing such practices is Retraction Watch, a 14-year-old organization co-founded by journalists Ivan Oransky and Adam Marcus. I spoke with Oransky about why there has been a surge in fake research and whether fraud accusations against the presidents of Harvard and Stanford are actually good for academia.

Give me a sense of how big a problem these paper mills are.

I’ll start by saying that paper mills are not the problem; they are a symptom of the actual problem. Adam Marcus, my co-founder, had broken a really big and frightening story about a painkiller involving scientific fraud, which led to dozens of retractions. That’s what got us interested in that. There were all these retractions, far more than we thought but far fewer than there are now. Now, they’re hiding in plain sight.

That was 2010. Certainly, AI has accelerated things, but we’ve known about paper mills for a long time. Everybody wanted to pretend all these problems didn’t exist. The problems in scientific literature are long-standing, and they’re an incentive problem. And the metrics that people use to measure research feed a business model — a ravenous sort of insatiable business model. Hindsight is always going to be 20/20, but a lot of people actually were predicting what we’re seeing now.

Regarding your comment that paper mills are symptoms of a larger problem, I read this story in Science and was struck by the drive for credentialing — which gets you better jobs, higher pay, and more prestige. In academia, there aren’t enough jobs; are the hurdles to these jobs impossibly high, especially for people who may be smart but are from China or India and may not have entry into an American or European university?

I actually would go one step higher. When you say there aren’t enough jobs, it’s because we’re training so many Ph.D.’s and convincing them all that the only way to remain a scientist is to stay in academia. It’s not, and that hasn’t been true for a long time. So there’s definitely a supply-and-demand problem, and people are going to compete.

You may recall the story about high-school students who were paying to get medical papers published in order to get into college. That’s the sort of level we’re at now. It’s just pervasive. People are looking only at metrics, not at actual papers. We’re so fixated on metrics because they determine funding for a university based on where it is in the rankings. So it comes from there and then it filters down. What do universities then want? Well, they want to attract people who are likely to publish papers. So how do you decide that? “Oh, you’ve already published some papers, great. We’re gonna bring you in.” And then when you’re there, you’ve got to publish even more.

You’re replacing actual findings and science and methodology and the process with what I would argue are incredibly misleading — even false — metrics. Paper mills are industrializing it. This is like the horse versus the steam engine.

So they’re Moneyballing it.

Absolutely. They’ve Moneyballed it with a caveat: Moneyball sort of worked. The paper mills have metricized it, which is not as sexy to say. If you were to isolate one factor, citations matter the most, and if you look at the ranking systems, it’s all right there. The Times Higher Education world-university rankings, U.S. News — look at whichever you want, and somewhere between like 30 percent and 60 percent of those rankings are based on citations. Citations are so easy to game. So people are setting up citation cartels: “Yes, we will get all of our other clients to cite you, and nobody will notice because we’re doing it in this algorithmic, mixed-up way.” Eventually, people do notice, but it’s the insistence on citations as the coin of the realm that all of this comes from.

Your work gets to the heart of  researchers’ integrity. Do you feel like you’re a pariah in the scientific community?

I’m a volunteer. Adam is paid a very small amount. We use our funding to pay two reporters and then two people work on our database side. We approach these things journalistically; we don’t actually identify the problems ourselves. It’s very, very rare for us to do that. Even when it may appear that way on a superficial read — we’ve broken some stories recently about clear problems in literature — it’s always because a source showed us the way. Sometimes those sources want to be named, sometimes they don’t.

We’ve been doing this for 14 years. There are various ways to look at what the scientific community thinks of us. We’re publishing 100 posts a year about people committing bad behavior and only getting, on average, one cease-and-desist letter a year. We have never been sued, but we do carried defamation insurance. Our work is cited hundreds of times in the scientific literature. I definitely don’t feel like a pariah. Me saying I’m a pariah would be a little bit like, you know, someone whose alleged cancellation has promoted them to the top of Twitter.

People are unhappy that we have do what we do. If you talk to scientists, the things we’re exposing or others are exposing are well known to them. Because of the structures, the hierarchies, and the power differentials in science, it’s very difficult for them as insiders to blow the whistle. There’s a book out by Carl Elliott about whistleblowers, mostly in the sort of more clinical fields. That’s the vulnerable position. That’s where you end up being a pariah even though you should be considered a hero or heroine.

Are some fields better at policing their own research than others?

Yes. Going back to the origin story of Retraction Watch, Adam broke a story about this guy named Scott Reuben, who came from anesthesiology. We have a leaderboard of the people with the most retractions in the world, and at least three out of the top ten right now are anesthesiologists. That is a much higher percentage than one might expect. Some people may say, “Oh, does anesthesiology have a problem?” No, in fact, anesthesiology has been doing something about this arguably longer than any other field has.

What is it about anesthesiology that makes it so anesthesiologists are more willing to scrutinize the work in their own field?

It had a crisis earlier than others, and it’s small. Journal editors are generally considered pretty august personages, leaders in the field. They got together and it was like a collective action by the journal editors when they realized they had problems. I’m not saying anesthesiologists are better, but they’re a more tight-knit community, which I do think is important. The same thing happened in social psychology and in psychology writ large. There’s a higher number than you would expect of people on leaderboards in that field. So it’s a question of, When did they get there, and how did they react to it? There are fields that haven’t actually gotten there, even though it’s been a while. So maybe there are some sociologists who could tell you better than me why that might be the case.

That wasn’t the reason I expected. I thought you would say something along the lines of, well, it’s life or death and anesthesiologists don’t want to see people dying on the table.

If anything, sometimes when the stakes are higher, fields are more resistant.

Geez.

There’s a guy named Ben Mol. Ben is an OB/GYN, and he is a force to be reckoned with. Fascinating character. He’s a pit bull, and he has found tons and tons of problems in the OB/GYN literature. I would characterize the leaders in that field now as still a bit more reluctant to engage with these issues than some of the other fields I mentioned.

Can you tell me how you go about authenticating real language from AI, especially in papers that can be hard to parse and are laden with jargon to begin with?

We rely on experts. We’re not really doing that ourselves. You don’t need to be an expert; you just need to know how to use Ctrl+F if you see certain phrases in a paper. And by the way, a lot of journals are perfectly fine with people using chat GPT and other kinds of AI. It’s just whether you disclose it or not. These are cases where they didn’t disclose it.

With the resignation of Stanford’s and Harvard’s presidents, do you worry about the way the general public has been using these tools?

The fact that they’re giving speeding tickets to certain groups of people doesn’t mean we’re not all speeding. It means they’re getting targeted in, I would argue, an unfair way. We’re in a great reckoning with Harvard’s Claudine Gay being the key example. Former Stanford president Marc Tessier-Lavigne is not an example of that. The targeting is a concern. And clearly, there are false positives. The flip side of this is that AI is being used to find these problems.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-scientific-fraud-is-suddenly-everywhere.html

Body-by-Guinness

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Good Source Material Here
« Reply #1256 on: May 30, 2024, 06:52:30 PM »
A peer reviewed paper that does a good job of questioning many alarmist arguments. Good fodder for citation when tangling with CACA True Believers:

https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Carbon-Dioxide-and-a-Warming-Climate-are-not-problems_Final_Submission.pdf

Body-by-Guinness

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More Heat, Less CO2 5000 Years Ago
« Reply #1257 on: June 05, 2024, 07:10:08 PM »
A video raining on numerous “settled science” and “the Arctic will soon be ice free” parades:

https://realclimatescience.com/2024/06/hockey-match-2/#gsc.tab=0

Body-by-Guinness

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IR Absorption Rate of CO2 Has a Ceiling that Can’t be Exceeded?
« Reply #1258 on: June 09, 2024, 11:58:24 AM »
Wonder if our friend seeking to maneuver us on to ground where he could rattle on about the IR absorption rates of CO2 has read this piece. Abstract and conclusion below:

Abstract
This article provides a brief review of research on the impact of anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on Earth's climate. A simplified analysis of resonant radiation absorption in gases is conducted. Building upon the material from the cited articles, theoretical and empirical relationships between radiation absorption and the mass of the absorbing material are presented. The concept of saturation mass is introduced. Special attention is given to the phenomenon of thermal radiation absorption saturation in carbon dioxide. By comparing the saturation mass of CO2 with the quantity of this gas in Earth's atmosphere, and analyzing the results of experiments and measurements, the need for continued and improved experimental work is suggested to ascertain whether additionally emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is indeed a greenhouse gas.

Significance statement
• The impact of anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration on Earth's climate is analysed. • The concept of saturation mass is introduced. • By comparing the saturation mass of CO2 with the quantity of this gas in Earth's atmosphere, and analyzing the results of experiments and measurements, the need for continued and improved experimental work is suggested to ascertain whether additionally emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is indeed a greenhouse gas.

Conclusions
The presented material shows that despite the fact that the majority of publications attempt to depict a catastrophic future for our planet due to the anthropogenic increase in CO2 and its impact on Earth's climate, the shown facts raise serious doubts about this influence. Without delving into the accuracy of the utilized models, we should closely examine the possibilities of gathering reliable input data for these models. These data are directly related to the distribution of temperature on Earth's surface and in the atmosphere, the distribution of water vapor concentration in the atmosphere, the distribution of wind speed and direction, and the distribution of aerosols and particles in the atmosphere (clouds, aerosols above fluctuating oceans). It is obvious that simultaneous measurements of these variables across the entire globe are not feasible, and averaging them in situations where strong nonlinear dependencies exist can lead to significant errors. Moreover, the atmosphere exhibits high dynamics, which further complicates such measurements. Therefore, it is not surprising that the results in various significant works such as Schildknecht (2020) and Harde (2013), differ greatly from those presented by the IPCC, which is widely regarded as the sole reliable authority. This unequivocally suggests that the officially presented impact of anthropogenic CO2 increase on Earth's climate is merely a hypothesis rather than a substantiated fact. Resolving these dilemmas requires further experimental work to verify the results of theoretical studies at every possible stage. To answer the question of whether the additionally emitted CO2 in the atmosphere is indeed a greenhouse gas, it would be necessary, among other things, to conduct additional research for a radiation source with a temperature similar to Earth's surface temperature and measure the absorption of thermal radiation in a mixture of CO2 and air at different temperatures and pressures, as is the case in Earth's atmosphere at various altitudes. It would also be beneficial to conduct field studies using an appropriate balloon, as suggested in (Kubicki et al., 2020b). By measuring the absorption of Earth's thermal radiation in atmospheric CO2 under atmospheric pressure in a cuvette placed in the basket of a balloon in the upper layers of the troposphere, we could obtain results that would decisively settle many controversial issues. For example, if it turned out, just like in the case of thermal radiation from the Moon, that there is no noticeable absorption of Earth's thermal radiation in CO2, it would mean that the spectrum of radiation emitted into space, as presented in the illustrative Fig. 1, exhibits a "funnel" created as a result of absorption in gases and water vapor in the atmosphere. It should be noted that CO2 absorption lines at different altitudes are narrower than CO2 absorption lines under atmospheric pressure, and thus, it could be authoritatively stated that we are dealing with atmospheric saturation, and the additional CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, regardless of its altitude, will not be a greenhouse gas.

However, the intention of the authors of this article is not to encourage anyone to degrade the natural environment. Coal and petroleum are valuable chemical resources, and due to their finite reserves, they should be utilized sparingly to ensure they last for future generations. Furthermore, intensive coal mining directly contributes to environmental degradation (land drainage, landscape alteration, tectonic movements). It should also be considered that frequently used outdated heating systems burning coal and outdated internal combustion engines fueled by petroleum products emit many toxic substances (which have nothing to do with CO2). Therefore, it seems that efforts towards renewable energy sources should be intensified, but unsubstantiated arguments, especially those that hinder economic development, should not be used for this purpose.

In science, especially in the natural sciences, we should strive to present a true picture of reality, primarily through empirical knowledge.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666496823000456

Body-by-Guinness

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Global Disasters Down, UN Reports of Same Up
« Reply #1259 on: June 09, 2024, 04:58:48 PM »
2nd post. As the piece points out, it’s almost like” satellites, phones, antibiotics, bulldozers and fire trucks are better at saving lives than horse drawn carts and hessian bags.” Too few mull what will happen should “Progressive” greens get their way: all the horrors they’ve predicted WILL prove true:

https://joannenova.com.au/2024/06/global-deaths-and-disasters-down-un-shameless-lies-up/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=global-deaths-and-disasters-down-un-shameless-lies-up

Body-by-Guinness

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Inconvenient Antarctic Evidence
« Reply #1260 on: June 14, 2024, 12:36:28 PM »
Dear me, Antarctic arial photos from 1937 get compared to modern satellite imagery and, sh!t oh dear … little change is noted. Rains a wee bit on the CO2 ol’ Z”climate change” nattative:

https://scitechdaily.com/challenging-modern-climate-narratives-forgotten-1937-aerial-photos-expose-antarctic-anomaly/

DougMacG

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From sky is falling to the coast is falling into the sea
« Reply #1261 on: June 16, 2024, 10:47:48 AM »
Somebody tell the Obamas, stay off the Vineyard.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13533893/Wealthy-beach-lovers-devastated-slash-price-seaside-homes.html

My Grandpa knew 75 years ago, buy (south Florida) ocean property a block back from the ocean, with the building turned sideways, not facing straight into the storm.  They had bad storms back then.  And before air conditioning, Midwesterners only went to the hot humid south for 6 months and a day of the year.

Interesting question, if the coasts fell in, would the country be worse off?

ccp

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here we go again with the Climate language con
« Reply #1262 on: June 16, 2024, 01:38:34 PM »
"heat dome"

to describe next weeks over 90 degrees.

add this to "atmospheric river"

add it to "polar vortex"

control the language and thus control us.


Body-by-Guinness

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Re: From sky is falling to the coast is falling into the sea
« Reply #1263 on: June 18, 2024, 07:41:11 AM »
Interesting question, if the coasts fell in, would the country be worse off?
I refuse to answer on the grounds it might get me put on a list....

DougMacG

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Climate Denial and Climate Hoax denial
« Reply #1264 on: June 19, 2024, 01:33:28 PM »
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c133r4gyx1no
How a Kenyan farmer became a champion of climate change denial
(He can't grow food without oil.)

But he is wrong because fossil fuel caused climate change is "proven":
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-24021772

"What is climate change? A really simple guide"

  - [Doug]  A simple guide because climate is a simple subject?  Maybe in George Orwell's world.

Source: UN IPCC

When did they get anything wrong?

Nothing but awful effects of "climate change" (at the link), brought to you by the people who lie to exaggerate temperature rise.  ("Adjusted data.")

Ask any scientist, what's more accurate, real data or adjusted data?

"Scientists have proven that the Earth is heating up because of greenhouse gases that are emitted into the atmosphere when we burn fossil fuels - like oil, gas, or coal."

[Doug]  If scientists are so sure for so long that is the cause, the only cause, 1) why are they altering the data, 2) why did they oppose the massive capability of carbon-free nuclear energy for the last 48 years?  And why do they fly private planes and wine and dine themselves at climate conferences every year all around the world like there's no tomorrow, um no crisis?
« Last Edit: June 19, 2024, 02:03:40 PM by DougMacG »


Body-by-Guinness

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This could be filed in more than on place, but given the pattern it reveals—federal minders defining what the “science” should be, feeding those who walk in lockstep funds, starving those who don’t, enlisting the MSM to promote the narrative and ignore the rotten “deniers,” as all the while Big Pharma gets fat off of “cures” that don’t stand up to what little empiric study there is—I’ll drop it here:

Fauci Was Just a Symptom
By Jeffrey H. Anderson
June 20, 2024

Editor’s Note: Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, Anthony Fauci has emerged as a living symbol of federal abuses: lockdowns, mask mandates, and myriad other arbitrary restrictions that unduly burdened the lives of ordinary citizens. Yet there is nothing exceptional about the former NIAID head; he is merely one of countless bureaucrats in Washington who feel entitled to rule their countrymen by the mandate of expertise. Jeffrey H. Anderson reviews RFK Jr.’s recent book on America’s most controversial doctor and concludes that Fauci is not just a bad scientist, but an embodiment of the grave threat posed by a new regime to our Constitution and our way of life.

The mainstream press corps prefers to deal with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. by pretending that he doesn’t exist. This is true both for his presidential campaign—which is thought to pose too much of a threat to President Biden to risk acknowledging it—and for his popular book, The Real Anthony Fauci.

Relegated to Skyhorse Publishing, which Wall Street Journal film critic Kyle Smith describes as “something of a refuge for the cancelled,” Kennedy’s book nevertheless cracked the top 15 on the New York Times hardcover nonfiction best-seller list for 15 consecutive weeks—topping out at #7. Yet apparently it did not merit space in the Times for a review. Wikipedia quickly dismisses The Real Anthony Fauci as a “controversial” book by a “conspiracy theorist” who unjustifiably “attacks” Fauci and “offers disinformation.”

In truth, however, Kennedy’s book is a valuable and generally well-researched indictment of the public health establishment, and more broadly of anti-republican rule by “experts.” While the book’s claims should not be taken as gospel in the way that the credulous press corps hangs on Fauci’s every muddled word, Kennedy shows impressive willingness to stand strong against the current, and his informative and rather countercultural book is very much worth a read. He makes a compelling case that—from AIDS to Covid—Fauci and friends have been pursuing their own agenda at the expense of the American people.

Kennedy chronicles a federal public health establishment that wields nearly monopolistic control over America’s medical research, funding, and messaging. That establishment ensures that university researchers are almost entirely dependent upon federal grants, regularly stifles free inquiry and open debate, effectively “cancels” those who deviate from the establishment orthodoxy, seems uninterested in any sort of care or prevention not involving a pharmaceutical patent, ensures that government public health employees are enriched by pharmaceutical royalties, and—all in all—represents one of the worst examples of the pitfalls of centralized power and control anywhere on our shores.

A book ostensibly about a particular villain in the play, The Real Anthony Fauci ultimately reveals that the problem goes well beyond one especially truth-eschewing, self-serving, camera-hogging bureaucrat. Anthony Fauci was never elected, has essentially never practiced medicine in a clinical setting, is not a health policy expert, and is not even an epidemiologist. Why would anybody have listened to him or cared what he thought during two of the largest-scale public health crises in recent history? The answer is that he was a senior representative of the public health establishment. That goes a long way with a leftist press corps that loves the idea of rule by government, of rule by “experts,” and especially of rule by “government experts.”

To be sure, it matters greatly who leads, and if Fauci’s role had been filled by Scott Atlas or Jay Bhattacharya, the Covid response would have been quite different. Or maybe Covid-19 wouldn’t have existed, as Fauci’s fondness for “gain of function” research raises “the ironic possibility,” as Kennedy writes, “that Dr. Fauci may have played a role in triggering the global contagion that two US presidents entrusted him to manage.”

But high-level bureaucrats are rarely like Atlas or Bhattacharya. People like Fauci rise to power by expertly navigating the bureaucracy, not because they are impressive thinkers or even skilled managers. Moreover, the problems at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)—within which reside the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and (within NIH) the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)—extend well beyond just the career staff. The political appointees housed at HHS generally either know nothing and trust the career “experts” or are themselves on loan from Big Pharma, etc. This combination of undesirable personnel is a large part of why HHS is the center of the federal swamp.

Older than Joe Biden, Fauci has been swimming in that swamp for a long time. The year that Fauci was first employed by the federal government, Mickey Mantle was still wearing pinstripes. By his own admission, Fauci joined the Public Health Service to avoid serving in Vietnam.

Raised Roman Catholic but now a self-described “humanist,” Fauci seems to have had a particular knack for talking those with the last name of Bush into doing things he wanted them to do. He managed to get George H. W. Bush to say during a presidential debate that Fauci was “a very fine researcher, top doctor at National Institute of Health, working hard doing something, research on this disease of AIDS.” And he managed to coax George W. Bush into saying in his 2003 State of the Union address, “I ask the Congress to commit $15 billion over the next five years, including nearly $10 billion in new money, to turn the tide against AIDS in the most afflicted nations of Africa and the Caribbean.” This effort, the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), would become a pillar of Bush’s so-called “compassionate conservatism.”

HHS now brazenly asserts that PEPFAR has saved “over 25 million lives.” The sole basis for this dubious claim seems to be that over 25 million people (counting babies in the womb) have been given antiviral drugs. HHS’s apparent dual assumption is that every one of those people would have died without the drugs, and every one of them has subsequently survived because of the drugs. This is what passes for scientific rigor at HHS.

Kennedy references Fauci’s “libertine approach to facts.” He elaborates, “Tony Fauci does not do public health; he is a businessman, who has used his office to enrich his pharmaceutical partners and expand [his] reach of influence.” Kennedy quotes Dr. Jonathan Fishbein, a former division director at NIAID under Fauci, as saying, “Dealing with Tony Fauci is like dealing with organized crime. He’s like the godfather.” But much like the mafia problem is bigger than any boss, the problem of the swamp is much bigger than Fauci.

The NIH has an annual budget of about $50 billion, enough to give 20,000 separate entities—or an average of 400 per state—$1 million apiece and still have most of that budget left over. One can see how this federal largess can buy influence. Indeed, all 210 drugs that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved from 2010 to 2016 received funding from NIH.

Kennedy is sometimes inclined toward hyperbole, and it can be hard to tell where the healthy skepticism ends and the embrace of conspiracy theories begins. But his book is chock-full of helpful citations, so one can check his claims. His last chapter appears to have been rushed to press without being properly edited and fact-checked. For example, Congress didn’t issue a “declaration of war on Iraq”—we haven’t bothered to follow that essential feature of our Constitution since the Second World War—and it’s not true that Scooter Libby “went to prison” before his “subsequent prison release by President Donald Trump.” In fact, Libby never went to prison and was working down the hall from me at the Hudson Institute at the start of the Trump administration. In general, however, Kennedy seems to be a mostly reliable guide who possesses the important virtue of being willing to question the prevailing orthodoxy in an era of widespread groupthink.

The mainstream press seems incapable of mentioning RFK Jr.’s name without attaching the term “vaccine denier.” He is certainly skeptical of vaccines, and of Bill Gates and his (apparently quite lucrative) vaccine empire. But JFK’s nephew may well have a point that Big Pharma has taken a lot more credit than is justified for Americans’ improved health over the past century or more. The Annual Summary of Vital Statistics: Trends In the Health of Americans During the 20th Century—authored by, among others, the director of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) at HHS and the director of NCHS’s Division of Vital Statistics—says that “nearly 85%” of the extraordinary decline in non-infant child mortality in the U.S. during the 20th century, and “nearly 90%” of the decline in such mortality from infectious diseases, “occurred before 1940, when few antibiotics or vaccines were available.” Kennedy attributes the bulk of this decline to improved sanitation and nutrition.

The public health establishment, as Kennedy observes, could hardly have failed more miserably than it did during Covid. Its ugly authoritarian streak and myopic worldview were both on full display. Public health officials amazingly denied the existence of natural immunity, stubbornly insisted on the efficacy of masks, and blithely suggested that they couldn’t care less whether locking down the economy and shutting kids out of schools caused the ruination of many thousands of businesses, the borrowing of many trillions of dollars, and the impoverishing of many millions of childhoods. Public health officials also wildly asserted, in the words of Biden’s CDC director Rochelle Walensky, that “vaccinated people do not carry the virus” and “don’t get sick”—a claim shown to be pure nonsense.

Yet Covid merely shined a spotlight on a public health establishment whose ineptitude, self-interestedness, insulation, and indifference to genuine scientific inquiry dates back at least 40 years, to the AIDS crisis. Instead of having independent research be conducted by inquisitive, truth-seeking scientists from coast to coast, almost all such research has been funneled through a small cabal of interested individuals who control, shape, and limit that research. Essentially all of the money for such research flows through the federal government, and only those who toe the party line get the government’s—that is, the taxpayers’—money.

Both during AIDS and during Covid-19, Fauci and company fought the use of inexpensive, repurposed drugs to help people’s immune systems fight off the threats. Kennedy argues that they were motivated by a desire to bring pharmaceutical products to market—both antivirals and vaccines—without facing cheap competition, as a portion of Big Pharma’s profits would make their way into the public health officials’ pockets. Indeed, NBC News reports that NIH researchers have personally collected up to $150,000 a year in royalty payments for drugs they have helped develop at taxpayer expense. NBC says that in 2004 NIH researchers pocketed a total of $8.9 million. That’s in addition to their taxpayer-funded salaries. More recently, royalties from Covid vaccines appear to have been quite a boon to NIH, as in 2022 the agency’s overall royalties (not just the portion paid out to employees) skyrocketed to nine times what they were in the pre-Covid year of 2019.

NBC writes, “For instance, two top managers”—Fauci and his deputy—“in NIH’s infectious disease division have received tens of thousands of dollars in royalties for an experimental AIDS treatment they invented.” (In reality, it’s unlikely that either of these two bureaucrats “invented” anything.) “At the same time,” NBC writes, “their office has spent millions in tax dollars to test the treatment on patients across the globe, the records show.” So, those funding, and perhaps ordering, the studies on whether a drug works have a personal financial interest in having those studies come out favorably. This might help explain why, as Kennedy writes, one NIH scientist told Pulitzer-winning New York Times reporter John Crewdson, “It’s hard to be an honest person in this place.”

Take how the public health establishment dealt with hydroxychloroquine, a medicine used for about 70 years for various ailments. Many practicing doctors claimed that—especially when used in combination with zinc and azithromycin—hydroxychloroquine could help keep people from getting Covid-19 and also help treat the disease in its early stages. Kennedy writes that hydroxychloroquine therefore posed “a momentous threat to the pharmaceutical cartel”—somewhat to the Covid-19 vaccine program, and especially to Gilead’s hopes of making a fortune from the antiviral remdesivir, which the federal government spent $162 million by the end of 2020 to help develop, according to the Government Accountability Office. Hydroxychloroquine generally costs less than $1 per tablet, while remdesivir’s price “for a typical treatment course” for those with private health insurance was set, as of mid-2020, at $3,120.

The timeline of events concerning these two drugs is curious and suggests support for Kennedy’s claims:

On March 24, 2020, in the very early days of Covid-19, radio show host Chris Stigall asked Fauci whether he would prescribe hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19 if his patient wanted it. Momentarily transporting himself into a hypothetical world in which he actually saw patients, Fauci replied, “Yeah, of course…it really is an individual choice.”
On March 28, the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for use of hydroxychloroquine, saying that “it is reasonable to believe that…hydroxychloroquine sulfate may be effective in treating COVID-19” and stating that the “potential benefits…outweigh…potential risks.” With remdesivir not yet available, the FDA added, “There is no adequate, approved, and available alternative to…hydroxychloroquine sulfate for the treatment of COVID-19.”

On April 9, the NIH began clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine, to last 15 months.
On May 1, the FDA issued an EUA for remdesivir.
On May 18, President Trump told the press he’d been taking hydroxychloroquine.
On June 15, the FDA revoked its EUA for hydroxychloroquine, basically saying—with no compelling rationale—that it had changed its mind.
On June 20, the NIH aborted its clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine, 13 months early.
On October 22, the FDA approved remdesivir on a non-emergency basis, which Science magazine said “baffled scientists who have closely watched the clinical trials of remdesivir unfold over the past 6 months—and who have many questions about remdesivir’s worth.” Science also noted that a fortnight earlier, in “a deal potentially worth $1 billion,” Gilead had “inked an agreement to supply the European Union.”

(Our federal government had already purchased large quantities by that time.)

Cochrane, an independent British organization that provides highly trusted reviews of medical evidence, has subsequently examined the effectiveness of both drugs in treating Covid-19. While Cochrane found no evidence that hydroxychloroquine works on patients who are sick enough to be hospitalized, it said, “We are uncertain whether hydroxychloroquine affected the number of people whose symptoms improved after 28 days,” how many people “developed COVID-19,” or “how many people were admitted to [a] hospital with COVID-19, compared with those receiving a placebo treatment.” This uncertainty is unsurprising, since there have been few randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on hydroxychloroquine, and not all of those have tested the drug as an early treatment, or in combination with zinc and azithromycin.

For remdesivir, Cochrane found that for hospitalized patients, it “probably makes little or no difference to deaths after 28 days…60 days, or…150 days.” As for treatment of patients outside of hospitals, Cochrane writes, “We are uncertain whether remdesivir increases or decreases the chance of symptom alleviation by day 14.” In other words, it could make things better—or worse.

Despite these rather similar reviews, the U.S. public health establishment green-lighted the expensive remdesivir and not only wouldn’t approve the cheap hydroxychloroquine but cancelled the major clinical trial designed to test it and revoked its authorization even on an emergency-use basis. This seemingly fits Kennedy’s description of the “pattern” of Fauci, and other public health officials, “consistently prioritiz[ing] pharmaceutical industry profits over public health.”

Ivermectin appears to have posed an even bigger threat to Big Pharma than hydroxychloroquine did. Cochrane, which describes evidence of ivermectin’s effects on Covid-19 as “conflicting,” notes that there “is a complete gap in the evidence investigating ivermectin for preventing a SARS-CoV-2 infection after high-risk exposure.” Cochrane did report an observed 40 percent reduction in all-cause mortality among patients hospitalized with Covid-19—that is, 40 percent fewer people in the ivermectin group died than in the control group—but it wasn’t statistically significant. Another meta-analysis of RCTs, conducted by U.K. researchers and published in the American Journal of Therapeutics, found almost the same percentage reduction in deaths—38 percent, in this case for patients in all settings—and this finding was statistically significant. That study’s authors conclude, “Moderate-certainty evidence finds that large reductions in COVID-19 deaths are possible using ivermectin.” What’s more, “Using ivermectin early in the clinical course may reduce numbers progressing to severe disease.”

Yet, amazingly, the FDA launched an anti-ivermectin publicity campaign that featured the slogan, “You are not a horse!” The clear implication, lapped up by what Kennedy calls our “brain-dead” and “scientifically illiterate media,” was that this was a veterinary medicine that no one but a barnyard rube would suggest you should take. Never mind that Cochrane says ivermectin “is widely used” (by humans) and “has few unwanted effects,” that it’s on the World Health Organization’s list of “Essential Medicines,” or that the CDC recommends that all Middle Eastern, Asian, North African, Latin American, and Caribbean refugees “should” take it. Despite all of this, an inexpensive medication that apparently offers more promise in treating Covid-19 than the expensive pharma favorite was pilloried by the public health establishment and portrayed as being unfit for our species.

One would think that a free press corps would call out the public health bureaucrats over such ludicrous claims, which could easily have been checked. But as Kennedy observes, “The now-popular term ‘misinformation’ has come to mean any expression that departs from official orthodoxies.” Those who depart must be rebuked or censored by the mainstream press and social media.

It is also interesting to read what Cochrane has to say about the experimental mRNA Covid-19 vaccines. It found that they worked extremely well—in the short run—in preventing people without (known) natural immunity and without weakened immune systems from getting Covid-19. Cochrane says we don’t know whether the vaccines’ effects wane over time—anecdotal evidence now suggests that their benefits greatly diminish—or what effects they might have, for good or ill, on people who have been strengthened by natural immunity or are vulnerable due to weakened immune systems. We also don’t know the vaccines’ effects on pregnant women.

Perhaps most interestingly, Cochrane found no statistically significant evidence that the vaccines reduce all-cause mortality. Instead, Cochrane reports that slight increases in all-cause deaths were observed for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in comparison to the control groups. These slight increases are nowhere near statistically significant, but they certainly don’t point toward the vaccines reducing deaths. Indeed, there appears to be more evidence that ivermectin reduces the chance of death in connection with Covid-19 than there is that the mRNA vaccines do. Yet the federal government spent a fortune on the latter and disingenuously suggested that the former was fit only for four-legged patients.

As Kennedy makes clear, the general playbook for much of the public health establishment’s response to Covid—with the big exception of the lockdowns—traces to the AIDS crisis. Fauci, White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator Deborah Birx, and Trump’s CDC director Robert Redfield—the troika of mediocrities whom Scott Atlas (an advisor in the Trump White House) says “shared thought processes and views to an uncanny level”—all emerged from the AIDS world. So did Walensky.

Kennedy writes that by 1987, his uncle, Senator Ted Kennedy, “was beginning to suspect that Dr. Fauci was either inept or ‘in the tank’ with Pharma.” The eclectic list of people dissatisfied with the Fauci-led efforts at that point included not only Kennedy but Representative Henry Waxman, Representative Nancy Pelosi, and President Ronald Reagan. But Fauci’s principal life skill is that, in Kennedy’s words, he’s a “master of bureaucratic survival.” He survived that threat, and decades later was still in a position to help steer the country’s response to Covid using the AIDS playbook.

The AIDS experience involved a massive misinformation campaign. Almost from the beginning, the evidence clearly pointed toward AIDS being almost exclusively a disease afflicting homosexual men and intravenous drug users—and especially those who were in both categories. Yet the public health establishment launched a huge propaganda effort to try to convince the citizenry of essentially the opposite—that AIDS was everyone’s disease. From 1987 to 1992, the federal government ran television “public service announcements” a reported 59,000 times as part of the CDC’s “America Responds to AIDS” campaign and its message that “anyone can get HIV/AIDS.” Even before that, in 1983, Fauci had said that it is “important” to note “the possibility that routine close contact, as within a family household, can spread the disease.” This fear-stoking, anti-scientific approach should sound familiar to anyone who watched the public health establishment pretend that schoolchildren were at similar risk from the Wuhan virus as octogenarians.

If the “anyone can get HIV/AIDS” message were true, HIV/AIDS would have broken out into the general population in great numbers. But it was plainly false, as was suggested by a Pulitzer Prize-winning Wall Street Journal article on HIV/AIDS that noted that “for most heterosexuals, the risk from a single act of sex was smaller than the risk of ever getting hit by lighting.” Fast-forwarding about four decades, a publication on the CDC’s own website now estimates (Figure 1) that the number of Americans with HIV peaked in the mid-1980s and has remained at less than half that peak since the early 1990s. In predicting that HIV’s reach would exponentially expand when it actually contracted by more than half, the public health establishment could hardly have been more wrong.

But being wrong has never seemed to hurt Fauci, for whom the onset of AIDS was like striking oil. Kennedy writes that the “critical foundation stone” of Fauci’s career was placed in 1984, when his colleague and ally Robert Gallo claimed to have discovered that HIV causes AIDS. Pioneering the technique that Kennedy calls “science by press release,” Gallo got his boss, Reagan’s HHS Secretary Margaret Heckler, to announce that “the probable cause of AIDS has been found”—proof to follow. Kennedy writes that this claim was crucial to Fauci because it allowed him “to capture the AIDS program and its attendant cash flows from the National Cancer Institute”—where federal AIDS efforts had primarily been housed—“and launch the project of building NIAID into the world’s biggest drug-production empire.”

Peter Duesberg—the first person to isolate a cancer gene and, per the Los Angeles Times, “the first virologist to map the genetic structure of retroviruses”—was utterly unconvinced by Gallo’s claim. Duesberg observes that HIV “was adopted as the cause of AIDS by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services…even before the first American study on the virus was published.”

While the notion that HIV causes AIDS is now as widely accepted by the general population as the notion that wind propels kites, Kennedy argues that “no one has been able to point to a study that demonstrates their [Gallo and Fauci’s] hypothesis using accepted scientific proofs.” When it comes to the HIV/AIDS orthodoxy—Kennedy would say dogma—Duesberg is the leading skeptic. Duesberg’s theory is basically that the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s was caused by extensive drug use (perhaps particularly of “poppers,” which Kennedy describes as “a mainstay of the gay social scene in the late 1970s”) combined with “multiple acute parasitic infections” and “chronic malnutrition”—of the type resulting from lifestyles that are unhealthy in the extreme—all over the better part of a decade or more.

This hypothesis, if true, would shutter the gold mines full of researchers trying to develop antivirals or (after some 40 years of trying) a vaccine for HIV, as Duesberg’s explanation for the cause of AIDS points toward a largely behavioral, rather than pharmaceutical, solution. As for AIDS in Africa, Duesberg appears to think it’s a sham—that the public health establishment has simply taken a collection of ancient diseases that bear little resemblance to the diseases that define AIDS in the West and renamed them AIDS in Africa. An AIDS patient can board an airplane in Africa, says Duesberg, and somehow no longer have AIDS upon landing in the U.S. or Europe—at least by definition.

As the 1980s gave way to the 1990s, Duesberg thinks “AIDS” (in quotes) was often caused by Fauci and his cohorts telling doctors with HIV-positive patients to prescribe them azidothymidine (AZT), which destroys the immune system so similarly to how actual AIDS does that it’s essentially impossible to distinguish between the two killers. Duesberg calls this “AIDS by AZT.”

Arthur Ashe was a family friend of the Kennedys who had tested positive for HIV antibodies after getting a blood transfusion and was then prescribed what Kennedy calls “an extremely high AZT dose.” In October 1992, Ashe wrote in the Washington Post, “The confusion for AIDS patients like me is that there is a growing school of thought that HIV may not be the sole cause of AIDS, and that standard treatments such as AZT actually make matters worse.” Yet, Ashe wrote, “the medical establishment is too rigid to change the direction of basic research and/or clinical trials.” Four months later, the 1975 Wimbledon champion was dead at 49. 

When Cochrane reviewed AZT in 2000, it found that it “is expensive and has several adverse effects including nausea, vomiting, blood problems…and myopathy,” but it “does not increase survival.” Indeed, for those who took AZT, “there was no improvement in survival in the short or long term.”

Rather than debate Duesberg or provide persuasive evidence to debunk him, the public health establishment simply ostracized him. Kennedy writes that both Larry King and Good Morning America scheduled joint appearances with Fauci and Duesberg only to cancel on Duesberg at the last minute and give Fauci the stage to himself (presumably at Fauci’s insistence). He writes that, when Reagan wanted the two to have a “friendly debate” in front of him, the idea was called off because, in the words of a member of the Reagan administration, Fauci “threw a ‘small fit’…and demanded to know why the White House was interfering in scientific matters.” (Imagine the gall of a president wanting an executive branch employee to defend his theory on one of the most pressing issues of the day!)

One of Duesberg’s colleagues at the University of California at Berkeley told longtime AIDS journalist Celia Farber, “Peter may be right about HIV. But there’s an industry now.” Despite trying for years, journalist and gay activist John Lauritsen couldn’t get a single NIH scientist to respond to Duesberg’s article, as NIH officials told him that the etiology of AIDS was off-limits. Lauritsen told Kennedy, “It was the secular version of the doctrine of Papal infallibility; everyone must just accept the ‘AIDS’ virus theory as a matter of fact because the public health pope declares it.”

Kennedy writes that the Covid mask mandates defied the best scientific evidence, “increased social isolation,” and “atomized any sense of solidarity by preventing the most subtle and eloquent nonverbal communication for which God and evolution gave humans forty-two facial muscles.” Fauci himself admitted in recent testimony before Congress that “there was no science behind” the six-foot social distancing rule, one of his most consequential guidelines during the Covid crisis.

Channeling his inner Ron DeSantis, Kennedy writes, “We can bow down and comply—take the jabs, wear the face coverings, show our digital passports on demand, submit to the tests, and salute our minders in the Bio-surveillance State….Or we can say No. We have a choice.” He quotes President Eisenhower’s Farewell Address: “The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.” And on the book’s penultimate page, he wisely reminds us that “we can reassert legislative control,” adding that “it is ordinary people”—in combination with their elected representatives—“who can rescue us from [executive and administrative] tyranny.”

The crux of the problem with our public health establishment is the consolidation and centralization of power and money. Such power and money is often placed in the hands of people like Fauci who are either incredibly incompetent or (as Kennedy thinks) appallingly corrupt. The only genuine solution would seem to be to break up the monopoly. Whether it is public health research or “climate change” research, a tiny group of career federal employees should not be allowed to control the purse strings, agenda, and messaging for a nation of 330 million people. Perhaps the solution, at least in the public health vein, is to split the NIH’s $50 billion annual budget among the states on the basis of population, with no federal strings attached. 

Whatever the remedy, however, America needs to free its scientists from adherence to bureaucratic groupthink and once again encourage intellectual inquisitiveness and genuine scientific discovery. Such uncorrupted scientific inquiry is essentially incompatible with having almost all scientific funding be funneled through a small cabal of self-interested bureaucrats. It is this arrangement, coupled with the willingness of elected officials to defer to him, that made Fauci so powerful and permitted him to do so much damage.

As uniquely unscrupulous, power-mongering, and slithering as Fauci is, he is more the symptom than the disease—the effect rather than the cause of an overbearing and largely unchecked administrative state. So long as Congress and executive-branch leaders continue to allow the likes of Fauci to wield unconscionable levels of power on the basis of position rather than merit—in a way that is almost entirely detached from voters—American science, and republican government, will continue to suffer.

Jeffrey H. Anderson is president of the American Main Street Initiative, a think tank for everyday Americans. He served as director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice from 2017 to 2021.

https://tomklingenstein.com/fauci-was-just-a-symptom/

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"Wet bulb temperatures"
« Reply #1267 on: June 22, 2024, 02:34:43 AM »
new name the media will run with every time we have a hot humid day
https://www.yahoo.com/news/as-the-us-heat-wave-drags-on-experts-warn-of-deadly-wet-bulb-temperatures-heres-what-those-are-192339242.html

control the language and you can control the mind.