Author Topic: Political Economics  (Read 931047 times)

DougMacG

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Political Economics, End of the Obama Biden era
« Reply #2600 on: January 01, 2025, 05:08:16 AM »
Credit card default rate highest sinse, um, Barack Obama.

https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/credit-card-default-rate-us-reaches-highest-level-14-years

Under Trump, the key measure was real wage gains especially for minorities. Credit card default seems to be the key measure for economic life under these folks.

Good riddance. Happy New Year. Everybody seems to know that things will at least gradually get better now, starting inauguration day.

DougMacG

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Compare to the pre-pandemic job trend line
« Reply #2601 on: January 01, 2025, 05:40:07 AM »
We are 6 million jobs behind the pre-pandemic trend line.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/12/how-bidenomics-sank-kamala/

Even with false jobs reports (and false crime data and so on), people knew this economy sucks.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2025, 12:31:39 PM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

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The minimum wage in Seattle is zero, not $21
« Reply #2603 on: January 03, 2025, 07:39:19 AM »
You are not required to hire anyone, although it may be against the law to fire them even if you run out of money.

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2025/01/03/seattle-set-minimum-wage-over-20-and-youll-totally-believe-what-happened-next-n4935623
« Last Edit: January 03, 2025, 01:09:37 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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DougMacG

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Continuing the Jimmy Carter discussion from the RIP nm thread
« Reply #2605 on: January 09, 2025, 07:11:44 AM »
What cost $100 to buy when Jimmy Carter took office cost $150 to buy when Jimmy Carter left office.

He took a 6% inflation rate, doubled it, and blamed it on the victims.

In the Hugo Chavez recall election that he went to observe, Chavez was losing 40 to 60, but the official count ended up with Chavez winning 60 to 40. That's a 40 point error, aka cheat, but former President Jimmy Carter advised US Secretary of State Colin Powell and President George W bush to recognize and honor the false result as an honest result. From that we now have Venezuelan gangs here terrorizing our citizens.

Forgive me if I remain silent during the celebration of this public figure's life.

Maybe he was kind to his wife. He was not kind to me or to our country.

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics, Inflation
« Reply #2606 on: January 11, 2025, 11:43:49 AM »
"I'm getting stronger with age, I can now lift $100 worth of groceries with one hand."

DougMacG

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Political Economics, CTUP
« Reply #2607 on: January 13, 2025, 02:00:12 PM »
CTUP = committee to unleash prosperity

Trump already stole Kudlow and Steve Moore from them.

"Unleash Prosperity's Chief Economist Casey Mulligan Tapped To Be Trump's Deregulation Czar

What are we? An Executive Branch job training program?

Another one of our ace senior team has been poached by President Trump. Mulligan will run the Office of Advocacy at the Small Business Administration, where he will assess the costs and benefits of federal rules on small businesses. If they're a net negative - as most are - they can be rescinded."

Sign up if you haven't already.  - Doug
https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotline/?utm_source=MailChimp&utm_medium=click

DougMacG

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Inflation running 45% above Target
« Reply #2608 on: January 15, 2025, 11:08:44 AM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/01/15/cpi-report-december-data/77705910007/

Inflation at 2.9% isn't just a hair over target, it's 45% over target, and target at 2% is 10 fold too high. Inflation target should be 0.2%.

CPI up 2.9% is over and above all the other increases we've had over the past 4 years, growing and compounding.

No wonder Treasury bills and mortgage rates are stubbornly high. The housing market is screwed interest cost s are eating a trillion dollar hole in the budget and all future budgets.

Vance said it, Biden left us with a dumpster fire. That is quite an understatement!

DougMacG

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Bidenomics: Worst start to a fiscal year EVER:
« Reply #2609 on: January 16, 2025, 08:24:40 AM »
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni

This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER:
- Spending is up 10.9%
- Receipts are down 2.2%
- FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion
They're handing Trump a ticking time bomb...

(Doug) This is fact, not opinion.

Pres. Joe Biden:  "It will take time to feel the full impact of all that my Administration has done,"

   - More true than he knows.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2025, 08:30:39 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2610 on: January 16, 2025, 08:33:00 AM »
From the previous post:

Receipts are down 2.2%

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Body-by-Guinness

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2611 on: January 16, 2025, 02:12:27 PM »

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Talking point > fiscal reality. So long as the rhyme “fair share” can be spat at a camera fiscal reality will have to crouch at that back of the bus so far as the MSM & equity uber alles types are concerned.

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics, "Fiscal Reality"
« Reply #2612 on: January 17, 2025, 12:11:04 PM »

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Talking point > fiscal reality. So long as the rhyme “fair share” can be spat at a camera fiscal reality will have to crouch at that back of the bus so far as the MSM & equity uber alles types are concerned.

I like it!  They way they control the language and the discussion has been overwhelming for decades.  Hence the success of Trump (and Elon) as the only or among the very few people able to push back against that.

So many examples of Leftist mutilation of our language that people just accept, gender 'affirmation' the latest to come to mind.  The term refers to people who acting out the denial their actual gender.  Good grief.

Regarding "raising taxes on the wealthy", here is another upside down example: see tax thread, the cut in the corporate tax rate surged the revenues to the Treasury.  A counter-intuitive(?) "fiscal reality".

Revenues to the Treasury are the only justification for taxation, and more is more; it's not a "cut". 

Lowering the burden of government increased the prosperity of the working class, resulting in a huge increase in revenues.  Capital investment makes working people more productive.

It's really not counter-intuitive if you're capable of second level thinking.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2025, 12:18:53 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2613 on: January 17, 2025, 07:19:58 PM »


"They way they control the language and the discussion has been overwhelming for decades.  Hence the success of Trump (and Elon) as the only or among the very few people able to push back against that."

In the past few days I have been ruminating on Trump's reframing "Conservative" as "Common Sense".  Not only it it is really quite brilliant in that it allows Dems by habit an honorable way of making the shift, in the deeper sense it is a call to the Natural Law of our Declaration of Independence and our Ninth Amendment.

Body-by-Guinness

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Neoliberalism Never Happened …
« Reply #2614 on: January 22, 2025, 10:59:47 PM »

… but neostatism did. To my mind, here’s the piece’s money shot:

“Part of the answer lies in its rhetorical utility. Framing economic challenges as the result of unfettered markets absolves the state of responsibility. It shifts blame for crises onto “market excesses” while justifying further state intervention.”

Think this Orwellian perversion of meaning is an element root of much of what ails the republic, and is certainly embraced by those seeking to abrogate inconvenient constitutional guarantees:

Neoliberalism Never Happened

The Beacon / by Emmanuel Comte / Jan 22, 2025 at 6:03 PM

Neoliberalism is a myth. The concept suggests that starting in the 1970s Western economies have been shaped by free-market principles, the state has retreated, and markets have reigned supreme. And yet, the last fifty years were not about liberalizing, but about strengthening the state. Neoliberalism never happened. Instead, what unfolded was neostatism—a strategy where governments restructured their role to protect and expand their power. From the late 1970s onward, policies branded as “neoliberal” were crafted not to relinquish state control but to reassert it. And today, as overt state intervention returns with a vengeance, it becomes clear that the “neoliberal era” was a carefully managed illusion.

The 1970s marked the end of an era. State intervention in Western economies, bogged down by stagflation, soaring unemployment, and social unrest, faced an existential crisis. The Phillips Curve, which posited a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, was undeniably disproven, along with the broader framework of Keynesian economics. For decades, governments had directly managed economic and social life. But by the mid-1970s, this approach had run aground, eroding trust in state legitimacy.

Faced with collapse, political elites reinvented the role of the state. What emerged was not a retreat but a recalibration. Inflation was reframed as public enemy number one and wage growth was aggressively controlled to shield monetary policies from blame for inflation.

Margaret Thatcher’s privatizations in the UK did not cede control to markets; they concentrated economic power in state-regulated industries. Ronald Reagan’s tax reforms in the US, far from dismantling the state, switched its financial base more resolutely to monetary expansion. In both cases, the state simply shifted its strategy.

Governments moved from direct management to indirect regulation, all while maintaining the ultimate levers of control. The graph that follows demonstrates that, despite claims of austerity, government spending did not decline over the decades—on the contrary. Far from shrinking, the state merely changed its appearance.

Despite limited privatization in sectors like telecommunications and energy, governments retained control through regulatory bodies. These were not free markets, but hybrid systems designed to protect state interests.

Deregulation, too, was a misnomer. Take the financial sector. Deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s did not unleash the market; it restructured it under state supervision. Central banks gained independence, but this “independence” merely insulated them as tools of state policy. The 2008 financial crisis laid this bare as governments and central banks coordinated massive bailouts.

This approach extended beyond economics, reaching into every aspect of public life. The subsequent graph reveals this trend, showing that welfare spending expanded as governments reshaped their programs. Initiatives such as workfare in the United States and active labor market policies in Europe paved the way for new government programs.

Far from a retreat, this was the state consolidating its power. Neostatism thrived under the guise of neoliberalism, with policies serving the strategic needs of the state rather than free-market principles.

By the late 2000s, many declared the death of neoliberalism. The rise of tariffs, state bailouts during economic crises, and resurgent nationalism were seen as signs of markets losing their dominance. But these shifts were not a retreat from neoliberalism; they were its logical evolution. Neostatism was adapting, consolidating the state’s grip.

Take the 2008 financial crisis. Governments around the world intervened massively, rescuing banks supposedly to stabilize markets. Far from exposing the limits of neoliberalism, this revealed its core: markets only existed under the watchful eye of the state. The crisis did not kill neoliberalism—it unmasked its true nature as neostatism.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend, with economic lockdowns, massive stimulus packages, and unprecedented public health measures showcasing the state’s ability to control both the economy and society. Regulations mushroomed, from mandates for businesses to surveillance measures on citizens. Far from abandoning its role, the state doubled down, proving that neoliberalism’s alleged decline was nothing more than neostatism’s culmination.

Why, then, does the myth of neoliberalism persist? Part of the answer lies in its rhetorical utility. Framing economic challenges as the result of unfettered markets absolves the state of responsibility. It shifts blame for crises onto “market excesses” while justifying further state intervention.

For example, rising inequality is often attributed to neoliberal policies like tax cuts or deregulation. However, a closer look reveals that inequality flourished under monetary expansion, regulation, and cronyism, which were anything but laissez-faire.

The public and academic discourse around neoliberalism fuels this myth. Terms like “market fundamentalism” obscure the state oversight. The confusion enables the narrative of neoliberalism to thrive and the state’s role to expand.

The truth is simple: the state never let go. Under the guise of market liberalization, it has steadily extended its reach. Today, we see this clearly in the rise of tariffs, censorship, and direct economic interventions that shape markets according to political imperatives.

Neoliberalism is a misnomer. The last fifty years have been defined not by the retreat of the state but by its consolidation. Neostatism has driven policies branded as liberalization, concealing the state’s enduring power and control.

Recognizing the reality of neostatism is not just an academic exercise—only by shedding the myth of neoliberalism can we confront the real challenges of state overreach.

The greatest irony of our time is this: at the peak of state power over the economy and society, most still believe they live in an era of unfettered neoliberalism.

https://blog.independent.org/2025/01/22/neoliberalism-never-happened/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=neoliberalism-never-happened

DougMacG

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Political Economics, Before and after the new Administration
« Reply #2615 on: January 26, 2025, 06:34:16 AM »
https://www.ntd.com/59-percent-of-americans-dont-have-enough-savings-for-a-1000-emergency-report_1043121.html

59% couldn't handle a $1,000 unexpected emergency expense.

Let's check back on that in 4 years.

If that doesn't improve we can have Gretchen Whitmer et al for more of the same - equal poverty for all, but them.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2025, 07:07:01 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Gramm & Summers oppose tariffs
« Reply #2616 on: January 31, 2025, 06:48:36 AM »


Gramm and Summers: A Letter on Tariffs From Economists to Trump
Like our predecessors in 1930, we oppose the use of tariffs as a general tool for economic policy.
By Phil Gramm and Larry Summers
Jan. 30, 2025 1:55 pm ET


In an extraordinary act of unity, 1,028 American professional economists in the spring of 1930 signed a letter urging Congress to reject and President Herbert Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Yet that June, Congress passed it and the president signed it into law. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff helped turn a stock market rout and a building financial crisis into a worldwide depression and triggered a global trade war that halved American exports and imports.

Today, we write this letter in a similar spirit of unity. While the professional economists who have signed today’s letter differ on many issues, we are united in our opposition to tariffs as a general tool of economic policy. Even in efforts to promote national security, tariffs are prone to abuse. Many of the worst restrictions on trade, such as the Jones Act, have been implemented in the name of promoting national security.

Our united opposition to non-defense-related tariffs is based not on our faith in free trade but on evidence that tariffs are harmful to the economy. Protective tariffs distort domestic production by inducing domestic producers to commit labor and capital to produce goods and services that could have been acquired more cheaply on the international market. That labor and capital are in turn diverted from producing goods and services that couldn’t be acquired more cheaply internationally. In the process, productivity, wages and economic growth fall while prices rise. Tariffs and the retaliation they bring also poison our economic and security alliances.

The primary argument for the implementation of broad-based tariffs is that they will reverse the hollowing out of American manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit, which is causing a “hemorrhaging of America’s lifeblood.” Contrary to the repeated claim, there has been no hollowing out of American manufacturing. Industrial production in the U.S. is at an all-time high. The U.S. is producing 2.5 times as much real industrial output as it did when we last ran a trade surplus in 1975. We are producing that record output with the smallest percentage of the labor force involved in manufacturing since America became fully industrialized. The percentage of the civilian nonfarm labor force employed in manufacturing peaked during World War II and has been in secular decline ever since. This has been a great success for productivity and not a failure of trade, as today’s full employment attests.

It is telling that the Trump tariffs implemented in mid-2018 and the Biden expansion of those tariffs didn’t stop the secular decline in manufacturing employment as a percentage of the total labor force. The decline in manufacturing employment as a percentage of total employment is being driven by the same secular forces that caused employment in agriculture during the 20th century to fall from 40% to 2% of the labor force: a vast increase in labor productivity and a decline in the demand for manufactured products relative to services. This is a worldwide phenomenon occurring in both developed and developing countries.

In the long history of the country, there is little evidence to substantiate the claim that America prospers more when trade deficits fall than it does when they rise. During the Reagan recovery, as the level of economic growth surged, foreign investment rushed into the U.S. and the trade deficit soared. The same phenomenon occurred during the Clinton boom: So strong was the attractiveness of investing in America that the trade deficit continued to grow even as the federal government ran budget surpluses. The annual real trade deficit nearly doubled during the four years in which the U.S. government was running a budget surplus. When the economy started to grow faster in 2017 and 2018 during the first Trump term, the trade deficit rose despite the tariffs that were imposed in mid-2018.

The tariffs on steel and aluminum created only a small number of jobs, but since for every worker in the steel and aluminum industries there are 36 workers employed in American industries that use steel and aluminum in production processes, those modest gains were offset by the jobs losses in industries that use steel and aluminum as inputs. With foreign retaliation, the estimated cost to the economy of jobs created by the 2018 tariffs on washing machines, steel and aluminum clearly amounted to many times what the jobs paid in wages.

In sum, tariffs don’t have a predictable effect of reducing trade deficits, and trade deficits aren’t necessarily an adverse economic development. Indeed, trade deficits often arise as foreign investors choose the U.S. as a preferred destination for their capital.

Foreign capital has always played an important role in American economic development. The history of America is the history of foreign capital—initially from Britain and Holland—and labor from all over the world coming together to create the American economic colossus. Foreign capital today performs the same role. The countries whose citizens today make the largest investments in America—Japan, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands—invest in the U.S. because they see the investments as being more productive than the alternatives in their home countries or elsewhere. At least in the modern era, it seems that when the American economy is working well, it becomes an irresistible magnet for foreign workers and foreign investors.

The argument that foreign investment is making America poorer flies in the face of recorded history. From the settlement of Jamestown, foreign investment has enriched America and those who have invested in it. A review of the economic history of our nation yields no credible evidence that broad-based tariffs have benefited the nation as a whole. Protectionists often point to the 19th century as a period of high tariffs and strong economic growth. But a close look at the data for the 19th century shows conclusively that the country industrialized fastest when tariffs were falling, not when they were rising.

Sound fiscal policy and effective incentives to work, save and invest can increase economic growth, but the implementation of broad-based tariffs impedes that growth and in a full-blown trade war would overwhelm it. While we have fundamental differences in our views of how to produce a sound fiscal policy and implement effective incentives for productive efforts, we are united in our belief that broad-based tariffs will impede economic growth, risk triggering a trade war, and inflict long-term harm on the economy.

We therefore urge Congress not to adopt the administration’s proposed tariffs and urge the president not to implement those tariffs by executive order.

Mr. Gramm, a nonresident senior fellow at The American Enterprise Institute, served as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, 1999-2001. Mr. Summers, a Harvard University Professor and president emeritus, served as Treasury secretary, 1999-2001. Economists wishing to sign this letter can go to https://bit.ly/Gramm-Summers.

Crafty_Dog

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Trump's tariff thinking.
« Reply #2617 on: February 03, 2025, 04:37:54 PM »
I think Trump's thinking includes the notion of SUBSTITUTING revenues from tariffs to REPLACE the income tax and other taxes on American domestic economic activity.