Author Topic: Political Economics  (Read 966181 times)

DougMacG

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Political Economics, End of the Obama Biden era
« Reply #2600 on: January 01, 2025, 05:08:16 AM »
Credit card default rate highest since, um, Barack Obama.

https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/credit-card-default-rate-us-reaches-highest-level-14-years

Under Trump, the key measure was real wage gains especially for minorities. Credit card default seems to be the key measure for economic life under these folks.

Good riddance. Happy New Year. Everybody seems to know that things will at least gradually get better now, starting inauguration day.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 07:44:47 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Compare to the pre-pandemic job trend line
« Reply #2601 on: January 01, 2025, 05:40:07 AM »
We are 6 million jobs behind the pre-pandemic trend line.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/12/how-bidenomics-sank-kamala/

Even with false jobs reports (and false crime data and so on), people knew this economy sucks.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2025, 12:31:39 PM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

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The minimum wage in Seattle is zero, not $21
« Reply #2603 on: January 03, 2025, 07:39:19 AM »
You are not required to hire anyone, although it may be against the law to fire them even if you run out of money.

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2025/01/03/seattle-set-minimum-wage-over-20-and-youll-totally-believe-what-happened-next-n4935623
« Last Edit: January 03, 2025, 01:09:37 PM by Crafty_Dog »

DougMacG

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DougMacG

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Continuing the Jimmy Carter discussion from the RIP nm thread
« Reply #2605 on: January 09, 2025, 07:11:44 AM »
What cost $100 to buy when Jimmy Carter took office cost $150 to buy when Jimmy Carter left office.

He took a 6% inflation rate, doubled it, and blamed it on the victims.

In the Hugo Chavez recall election that he went to observe, Chavez was losing 40 to 60, but the official count ended up with Chavez winning 60 to 40. That's a 40 point error, aka cheat, but former President Jimmy Carter advised US Secretary of State Colin Powell and President George W bush to recognize and honor the false result as an honest result. From that we now have Venezuelan gangs here terrorizing our citizens.

Forgive me if I remain silent during the celebration of this public figure's life.

Maybe he was kind to his wife. He was not kind to me or to our country.

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics, Inflation
« Reply #2606 on: January 11, 2025, 11:43:49 AM »
"I'm getting stronger with age, I can now lift $100 worth of groceries with one hand."

DougMacG

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Political Economics, CTUP
« Reply #2607 on: January 13, 2025, 02:00:12 PM »
CTUP = committee to unleash prosperity

Trump already stole Kudlow and Steve Moore from them.

"Unleash Prosperity's Chief Economist Casey Mulligan Tapped To Be Trump's Deregulation Czar

What are we? An Executive Branch job training program?

Another one of our ace senior team has been poached by President Trump. Mulligan will run the Office of Advocacy at the Small Business Administration, where he will assess the costs and benefits of federal rules on small businesses. If they're a net negative - as most are - they can be rescinded."

Sign up if you haven't already.  - Doug
https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotline/?utm_source=MailChimp&utm_medium=click

DougMacG

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Inflation running 45% above Target
« Reply #2608 on: January 15, 2025, 11:08:44 AM »
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/01/15/cpi-report-december-data/77705910007/

Inflation at 2.9% isn't just a hair over target, it's 45% over target, and target at 2% is 10 fold too high. Inflation target should be 0.2%.

CPI up 2.9% is over and above all the other increases we've had over the past 4 years, growing and compounding.

No wonder Treasury bills and mortgage rates are stubbornly high. The housing market is screwed interest cost s are eating a trillion dollar hole in the budget and all future budgets.

Vance said it, Biden left us with a dumpster fire. That is quite an understatement!

DougMacG

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Bidenomics: Worst start to a fiscal year EVER:
« Reply #2609 on: January 16, 2025, 08:24:40 AM »
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni

This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER:
- Spending is up 10.9%
- Receipts are down 2.2%
- FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion
They're handing Trump a ticking time bomb...

(Doug) This is fact, not opinion.

Pres. Joe Biden:  "It will take time to feel the full impact of all that my Administration has done,"

   - More true than he knows.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2025, 08:30:39 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2610 on: January 16, 2025, 08:33:00 AM »
From the previous post:

Receipts are down 2.2%

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Body-by-Guinness

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2611 on: January 16, 2025, 02:12:27 PM »

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Talking point > fiscal reality. So long as the rhyme “fair share” can be spat at a camera fiscal reality will have to crouch at that back of the bus so far as the MSM & equity uber alles types are concerned.

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics, "Fiscal Reality"
« Reply #2612 on: January 17, 2025, 12:11:04 PM »

Higher taxes "on the wealthy" don't bring in more Revenue. How many times do we have to learn that?

Talking point > fiscal reality. So long as the rhyme “fair share” can be spat at a camera fiscal reality will have to crouch at that back of the bus so far as the MSM & equity uber alles types are concerned.

I like it!  They way they control the language and the discussion has been overwhelming for decades.  Hence the success of Trump (and Elon) as the only or among the very few people able to push back against that.

So many examples of Leftist mutilation of our language that people just accept, gender 'affirmation' the latest to come to mind.  The term refers to people who acting out the denial their actual gender.  Good grief.

Regarding "raising taxes on the wealthy", here is another upside down example: see tax thread, the cut in the corporate tax rate surged the revenues to the Treasury.  A counter-intuitive(?) "fiscal reality".

Revenues to the Treasury are the only justification for taxation, and more is more; it's not a "cut". 

Lowering the burden of government increased the prosperity of the working class, resulting in a huge increase in revenues.  Capital investment makes working people more productive.

It's really not counter-intuitive if you're capable of second level thinking.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2025, 12:18:53 PM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2613 on: January 17, 2025, 07:19:58 PM »


"They way they control the language and the discussion has been overwhelming for decades.  Hence the success of Trump (and Elon) as the only or among the very few people able to push back against that."

In the past few days I have been ruminating on Trump's reframing "Conservative" as "Common Sense".  Not only it it is really quite brilliant in that it allows Dems by habit an honorable way of making the shift, in the deeper sense it is a call to the Natural Law of our Declaration of Independence and our Ninth Amendment.

Body-by-Guinness

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Neoliberalism Never Happened …
« Reply #2614 on: January 22, 2025, 10:59:47 PM »

… but neostatism did. To my mind, here’s the piece’s money shot:

“Part of the answer lies in its rhetorical utility. Framing economic challenges as the result of unfettered markets absolves the state of responsibility. It shifts blame for crises onto “market excesses” while justifying further state intervention.”

Think this Orwellian perversion of meaning is an element root of much of what ails the republic, and is certainly embraced by those seeking to abrogate inconvenient constitutional guarantees:

Neoliberalism Never Happened

The Beacon / by Emmanuel Comte / Jan 22, 2025 at 6:03 PM

Neoliberalism is a myth. The concept suggests that starting in the 1970s Western economies have been shaped by free-market principles, the state has retreated, and markets have reigned supreme. And yet, the last fifty years were not about liberalizing, but about strengthening the state. Neoliberalism never happened. Instead, what unfolded was neostatism—a strategy where governments restructured their role to protect and expand their power. From the late 1970s onward, policies branded as “neoliberal” were crafted not to relinquish state control but to reassert it. And today, as overt state intervention returns with a vengeance, it becomes clear that the “neoliberal era” was a carefully managed illusion.

The 1970s marked the end of an era. State intervention in Western economies, bogged down by stagflation, soaring unemployment, and social unrest, faced an existential crisis. The Phillips Curve, which posited a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, was undeniably disproven, along with the broader framework of Keynesian economics. For decades, governments had directly managed economic and social life. But by the mid-1970s, this approach had run aground, eroding trust in state legitimacy.

Faced with collapse, political elites reinvented the role of the state. What emerged was not a retreat but a recalibration. Inflation was reframed as public enemy number one and wage growth was aggressively controlled to shield monetary policies from blame for inflation.

Margaret Thatcher’s privatizations in the UK did not cede control to markets; they concentrated economic power in state-regulated industries. Ronald Reagan’s tax reforms in the US, far from dismantling the state, switched its financial base more resolutely to monetary expansion. In both cases, the state simply shifted its strategy.

Governments moved from direct management to indirect regulation, all while maintaining the ultimate levers of control. The graph that follows demonstrates that, despite claims of austerity, government spending did not decline over the decades—on the contrary. Far from shrinking, the state merely changed its appearance.

Despite limited privatization in sectors like telecommunications and energy, governments retained control through regulatory bodies. These were not free markets, but hybrid systems designed to protect state interests.

Deregulation, too, was a misnomer. Take the financial sector. Deregulation in the 1980s and 1990s did not unleash the market; it restructured it under state supervision. Central banks gained independence, but this “independence” merely insulated them as tools of state policy. The 2008 financial crisis laid this bare as governments and central banks coordinated massive bailouts.

This approach extended beyond economics, reaching into every aspect of public life. The subsequent graph reveals this trend, showing that welfare spending expanded as governments reshaped their programs. Initiatives such as workfare in the United States and active labor market policies in Europe paved the way for new government programs.

Far from a retreat, this was the state consolidating its power. Neostatism thrived under the guise of neoliberalism, with policies serving the strategic needs of the state rather than free-market principles.

By the late 2000s, many declared the death of neoliberalism. The rise of tariffs, state bailouts during economic crises, and resurgent nationalism were seen as signs of markets losing their dominance. But these shifts were not a retreat from neoliberalism; they were its logical evolution. Neostatism was adapting, consolidating the state’s grip.

Take the 2008 financial crisis. Governments around the world intervened massively, rescuing banks supposedly to stabilize markets. Far from exposing the limits of neoliberalism, this revealed its core: markets only existed under the watchful eye of the state. The crisis did not kill neoliberalism—it unmasked its true nature as neostatism.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this trend, with economic lockdowns, massive stimulus packages, and unprecedented public health measures showcasing the state’s ability to control both the economy and society. Regulations mushroomed, from mandates for businesses to surveillance measures on citizens. Far from abandoning its role, the state doubled down, proving that neoliberalism’s alleged decline was nothing more than neostatism’s culmination.

Why, then, does the myth of neoliberalism persist? Part of the answer lies in its rhetorical utility. Framing economic challenges as the result of unfettered markets absolves the state of responsibility. It shifts blame for crises onto “market excesses” while justifying further state intervention.

For example, rising inequality is often attributed to neoliberal policies like tax cuts or deregulation. However, a closer look reveals that inequality flourished under monetary expansion, regulation, and cronyism, which were anything but laissez-faire.

The public and academic discourse around neoliberalism fuels this myth. Terms like “market fundamentalism” obscure the state oversight. The confusion enables the narrative of neoliberalism to thrive and the state’s role to expand.

The truth is simple: the state never let go. Under the guise of market liberalization, it has steadily extended its reach. Today, we see this clearly in the rise of tariffs, censorship, and direct economic interventions that shape markets according to political imperatives.

Neoliberalism is a misnomer. The last fifty years have been defined not by the retreat of the state but by its consolidation. Neostatism has driven policies branded as liberalization, concealing the state’s enduring power and control.

Recognizing the reality of neostatism is not just an academic exercise—only by shedding the myth of neoliberalism can we confront the real challenges of state overreach.

The greatest irony of our time is this: at the peak of state power over the economy and society, most still believe they live in an era of unfettered neoliberalism.

https://blog.independent.org/2025/01/22/neoliberalism-never-happened/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=neoliberalism-never-happened

DougMacG

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Political Economics, Before and after the new Administration
« Reply #2615 on: January 26, 2025, 06:34:16 AM »
https://www.ntd.com/59-percent-of-americans-dont-have-enough-savings-for-a-1000-emergency-report_1043121.html

59% couldn't handle a $1,000 unexpected emergency expense.

Let's check back on that in 4 years.

If that doesn't improve we can have Gretchen Whitmer et al for more of the same - equal poverty for all, but them.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2025, 07:07:01 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Gramm & Summers oppose tariffs
« Reply #2616 on: January 31, 2025, 06:48:36 AM »


Gramm and Summers: A Letter on Tariffs From Economists to Trump
Like our predecessors in 1930, we oppose the use of tariffs as a general tool for economic policy.
By Phil Gramm and Larry Summers
Jan. 30, 2025 1:55 pm ET


In an extraordinary act of unity, 1,028 American professional economists in the spring of 1930 signed a letter urging Congress to reject and President Herbert Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Yet that June, Congress passed it and the president signed it into law. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff helped turn a stock market rout and a building financial crisis into a worldwide depression and triggered a global trade war that halved American exports and imports.

Today, we write this letter in a similar spirit of unity. While the professional economists who have signed today’s letter differ on many issues, we are united in our opposition to tariffs as a general tool of economic policy. Even in efforts to promote national security, tariffs are prone to abuse. Many of the worst restrictions on trade, such as the Jones Act, have been implemented in the name of promoting national security.

Our united opposition to non-defense-related tariffs is based not on our faith in free trade but on evidence that tariffs are harmful to the economy. Protective tariffs distort domestic production by inducing domestic producers to commit labor and capital to produce goods and services that could have been acquired more cheaply on the international market. That labor and capital are in turn diverted from producing goods and services that couldn’t be acquired more cheaply internationally. In the process, productivity, wages and economic growth fall while prices rise. Tariffs and the retaliation they bring also poison our economic and security alliances.

The primary argument for the implementation of broad-based tariffs is that they will reverse the hollowing out of American manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit, which is causing a “hemorrhaging of America’s lifeblood.” Contrary to the repeated claim, there has been no hollowing out of American manufacturing. Industrial production in the U.S. is at an all-time high. The U.S. is producing 2.5 times as much real industrial output as it did when we last ran a trade surplus in 1975. We are producing that record output with the smallest percentage of the labor force involved in manufacturing since America became fully industrialized. The percentage of the civilian nonfarm labor force employed in manufacturing peaked during World War II and has been in secular decline ever since. This has been a great success for productivity and not a failure of trade, as today’s full employment attests.

It is telling that the Trump tariffs implemented in mid-2018 and the Biden expansion of those tariffs didn’t stop the secular decline in manufacturing employment as a percentage of the total labor force. The decline in manufacturing employment as a percentage of total employment is being driven by the same secular forces that caused employment in agriculture during the 20th century to fall from 40% to 2% of the labor force: a vast increase in labor productivity and a decline in the demand for manufactured products relative to services. This is a worldwide phenomenon occurring in both developed and developing countries.

In the long history of the country, there is little evidence to substantiate the claim that America prospers more when trade deficits fall than it does when they rise. During the Reagan recovery, as the level of economic growth surged, foreign investment rushed into the U.S. and the trade deficit soared. The same phenomenon occurred during the Clinton boom: So strong was the attractiveness of investing in America that the trade deficit continued to grow even as the federal government ran budget surpluses. The annual real trade deficit nearly doubled during the four years in which the U.S. government was running a budget surplus. When the economy started to grow faster in 2017 and 2018 during the first Trump term, the trade deficit rose despite the tariffs that were imposed in mid-2018.

The tariffs on steel and aluminum created only a small number of jobs, but since for every worker in the steel and aluminum industries there are 36 workers employed in American industries that use steel and aluminum in production processes, those modest gains were offset by the jobs losses in industries that use steel and aluminum as inputs. With foreign retaliation, the estimated cost to the economy of jobs created by the 2018 tariffs on washing machines, steel and aluminum clearly amounted to many times what the jobs paid in wages.

In sum, tariffs don’t have a predictable effect of reducing trade deficits, and trade deficits aren’t necessarily an adverse economic development. Indeed, trade deficits often arise as foreign investors choose the U.S. as a preferred destination for their capital.

Foreign capital has always played an important role in American economic development. The history of America is the history of foreign capital—initially from Britain and Holland—and labor from all over the world coming together to create the American economic colossus. Foreign capital today performs the same role. The countries whose citizens today make the largest investments in America—Japan, Canada, Germany and the Netherlands—invest in the U.S. because they see the investments as being more productive than the alternatives in their home countries or elsewhere. At least in the modern era, it seems that when the American economy is working well, it becomes an irresistible magnet for foreign workers and foreign investors.

The argument that foreign investment is making America poorer flies in the face of recorded history. From the settlement of Jamestown, foreign investment has enriched America and those who have invested in it. A review of the economic history of our nation yields no credible evidence that broad-based tariffs have benefited the nation as a whole. Protectionists often point to the 19th century as a period of high tariffs and strong economic growth. But a close look at the data for the 19th century shows conclusively that the country industrialized fastest when tariffs were falling, not when they were rising.

Sound fiscal policy and effective incentives to work, save and invest can increase economic growth, but the implementation of broad-based tariffs impedes that growth and in a full-blown trade war would overwhelm it. While we have fundamental differences in our views of how to produce a sound fiscal policy and implement effective incentives for productive efforts, we are united in our belief that broad-based tariffs will impede economic growth, risk triggering a trade war, and inflict long-term harm on the economy.

We therefore urge Congress not to adopt the administration’s proposed tariffs and urge the president not to implement those tariffs by executive order.

Mr. Gramm, a nonresident senior fellow at The American Enterprise Institute, served as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, 1999-2001. Mr. Summers, a Harvard University Professor and president emeritus, served as Treasury secretary, 1999-2001. Economists wishing to sign this letter can go to https://bit.ly/Gramm-Summers.

Crafty_Dog

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Trump's tariff thinking.
« Reply #2617 on: February 03, 2025, 04:37:54 PM »
I think Trump's thinking includes the notion of SUBSTITUTING revenues from tariffs to REPLACE the income tax and other taxes on American domestic economic activity.

DougMacG

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Political Economics, Calvin Coolidge
« Reply #2618 on: February 17, 2025, 06:10:21 AM »
"President Harding had slashed the top income tax rate from 71 percent to 46 percent. However, Coolidge went further. He signed into law three Revenue Acts that reduced the total tax rate to 25 percent. Secretary of Treasury Anthony Mellon coined the phrase “Scientific Taxation,” which turned out to be a winning formula for the 1920s economy.

For instance, the real GDP surged to a yearly rate of 4.7 percent between 1922 and 1929, and the unemployment rate plummeted from 11.9 percent in 1921 to 3.2 percent in 1929. The Coolidge Administration reduced the national debt from $22.3 billion to $16.9 billion (one-third) by producing a surplus each year due to balancing the budget and cutting federal spending. Coolidge was only President for six years but left office with a smaller federal budget than when he arrived in Washington, a feat that no President, Republican or Democrat, has been able to replicate to this day."

He won his election in 1924 with 54% of the vote.  UNFORTUNATELY did not run for reelection in 1928.

https://spectator.org/the-greatest-president-you-never-learned-about/
« Last Edit: February 17, 2025, 06:16:31 AM by DougMacG »

Body-by-Guinness

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Re: Political Economics, Calvin Coolidge
« Reply #2619 on: February 17, 2025, 06:22:09 AM »
"President Harding had slashed the top income tax rate from 71 percent to 46 percent. However, Coolidge went further. He signed into law three Revenue Acts that reduced the total tax rate to 25 percent. Secretary of Treasury Anthony Mellon coined the phrase “Scientific Taxation,” which turned out to be a winning formula for the 1920s economy.

For instance, the real GDP surged to a yearly rate of 4.7 percent between 1922 and 1929, and the unemployment rate plummeted from 11.9 percent in 1921 to 3.2 percent in 1929. The Coolidge Administration reduced the national debt from $22.3 billion to $16.9 billion (one-third) by producing a surplus each year due to balancing the budget and cutting federal spending. Coolidge was only President for six years but left office with a smaller federal budget than when he arrived in Washington, a feat that no President, Republican or Democrat, has been able to replicate to this day."

He won his election in 1924 with 54% of the vote.  UNFORTUNATELY did not run for reelection in 1928.

https://spectator.org/the-greatest-president-you-never-learned-about/

Taking Trump at face value rarely makes sense. Think you are on the right track here, Doug.

DougMacG

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Political Economics, Krugman
« Reply #2620 on: February 17, 2025, 09:31:52 AM »
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/clay-waters/2025/02/14/elitist-krugman-low-income-trumpers-lack-sophisticated-view

On PBS, "where even the conservatives are liberal".

Low income voters favored Trump because they don't really pay attention, according to Krugman. Isn't it exactly the other way around? He's the one not paying attention. Nobel Peace Prize or not. He admits not really paying attention to prices now that he makes a lot of money.

Inflation peaked in 2022 and then came down, says krugman.

In the economics journals, they show their math when they are demonstrating the second derivative, the rate of change of the rate of change. But that's not what these voters in question are facing. Inflation peaked at over 9% around 2022 and the inflation that followed was more than 50% over target and it was compounding the hyper inflation that already happened. In all prices went up over 20% in Just 4 years.

Low income voters saw the prices of the things they need go up, and they never came down, they only kept going up. If you can't see that, you are a moron. If you won't admit it you are a liar by omission.

As crafty points out for us, there is a difference between price increase and inflation. The price of electricity is four times what it should be because of taxes and regulations and policy choices. The price of gasoline is way higher than it needs to be. The price of food is way higher than it needs to be. These aren't all inflation but they are all policy choices that hurt low-income voters.

Sorry Professor, but people who got their life learning outside of the Princeton bubble are not less smart than you.  They don't read your journals but they understand what is in front of them better than you do. In fact, the more they listen to you the less they know.

That's that's why we have elections instead of rule by royalty.

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2621 on: February 17, 2025, 09:37:34 AM »
One follow-up point on inflation.

"In all, prices went up over 20% in just 4 years."

Roughly translated, that means the dollar when he took office was worth 79 cents at the end of one term.

At that rate of bidenflation, how much dollar would we have left if we had what they wanted, two terms of Joe and two terms of Kamala, 16 years of Bidenflation?

By my calculation, a dollar they started with would have 39 cents of value remaining in it after just two presidencies of two terms each.

Krugman favors that or does he think that doing more of the same will lead to a different outcome?  aka insanity.

Either way, the low income voters couldn't afford to take that chance.

And it's not because they can't do calculus or don't read the news.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2025, 09:44:09 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Politico: Was Bidenomics a BIG Mistake? (yes)
« Reply #2622 on: February 20, 2025, 06:38:15 AM »
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/20/was-bidenomics-a-mistake-00204951

From the article :

"Jason Furman, the former top economist for then-President Barack Obama who now teaches at Harvard University, is wrenching open a debate about the former administration, writing in a lengthy Foreign Affairs piece that inflation was principally caused by too much government spending and that some of the White House’s key initiatives didn’t live up to what was promised."
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 07:16:49 AM by DougMacG »

DougMacG

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Jason Furman,Foreign Affairs,The Tragedy of Bidenomics,Post-Neo-Liberal Delusion
« Reply #2623 on: February 20, 2025, 06:46:42 AM »
"The Tragedy of Bidenomics"

(aka. Why Trump is President)

Post-Neo-Liberal Delusion

Jason Furman is Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University. He was Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

(Harvard doesn't have enough money to hire an economics professor without having an insurance company sponsor?)

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/post-neoliberal-delusion

Registration required, which is why I am taking some of the text from other sources.

https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=1467.msg179151#msg179151
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 07:23:56 AM by DougMacG »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2624 on: February 20, 2025, 07:36:46 AM »


"In all, prices went up over 20% in just 4 years."

I know this is the official number, and I heartily disagree.   IMO the true number is more like 30%. (Food, car and other insurance, gasoline, car repair, etc etc)

DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2625 on: February 20, 2025, 08:02:56 AM »


"In all, prices went up over 20% in just 4 years."

I know this is the official number, and I heartily disagree.   IMO the true number is more like 30%. (Food, car and other insurance, gasoline, car repair, etc etc)

I agree and the causes of it are mostly still in place, mostly still doing damage.

I didn't want to get ahead of what I can link to.

Do the math at that number, the US$ losing 30% of its purchasing power in one Presidential term. How much is left if you had two presidents with two terms each eroding our country at that rate?

We already know what can happen. The dollar lost 98% of its value since the Federal Reserve took charge. Now we just see the same thing happening on steroids.

On the personal side I see two family members losing jobs. One tied to federal grants not continued related to firefighting and the other in the US Forest Service, retired on Friday to avoid being fired on Monday.

Assume for a moment those were valuable people in valuable positions, this kind of disruption came about because the people with the purse strings exhibited zero restraint on all these other spending desires to the point where we were spending 40% more than we take in. Worse than most third world countries.

It's a travesty of words that they even call it a budget when it had no budget constraints. Also you can't call anything a "priority" when you just spend without limit on everything.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 08:07:30 AM by DougMacG »

Body-by-Guinness

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"The Tragedy of Bidenomics"

(aka. Why Trump is President)

Post-Neo-Liberal Delusion

Jason Furman is Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University. He was Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2013 to 2017.

(Harvard doesn't have enough money to hire an economics professor without having an insurance company sponsor?)

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/post-neoliberal-delusion

Registration required, which is why I am taking some of the text from other sources.

https://firehydrantoffreedom.com/index.php?topic=1467.msg179151#msg179151

Imagine if Harris had won the election; would this and other acknowledgments of the obvious be forthcoming or would the media/Deep State/federal oligarchy/WEF cabal be telling us to disbelieve our lying eyes instead?

DougMacG

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Imagine if Harris had won the election; would this and other acknowledgments of the obvious be forthcoming or would the media/Deep State/federal oligarchy/WEF cabal be telling us to disbelieve our lying eyes instead?

Good point although some did warn of the economic damage this would do. Lawrence Summers comes to mind, also a Harvard economics professor and Democrat economics advisor.

Rep Jim Clyburn famously said, "we all knew" . We knew this spending would lead to this inflation.

What they didn't know was that it would lead to them losing power.

There has been a historic connection between spending largess and winning elections. (Elected Republicans are also guilty.)

As one left leaning person close to me said about socialism destroying Venezuela, "maybe they went too far" (too far with those policies the US Left, Bernie etc want for us).

Back to the obvious and your good point, without losing power the Left would not be asking where did we go wrong.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 09:01:46 AM by DougMacG »

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Lawrence Summers May 2021 Warns of Burst of Inflation
« Reply #2629 on: February 20, 2025, 09:04:24 AM »
Larry Summers is urging Washington to tap the brakes on stimulus — or risk unleashing a serious burst of inflation.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/economy/inflation-larry-summers-biden-fed/index.html
« Last Edit: February 20, 2025, 09:06:02 AM by DougMacG »

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Re: Political Economics, Kevin Warsh, Next Fed Chair
« Reply #2630 on: February 25, 2025, 04:32:39 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcj-mNZbLZQ

Founder of RealClearPolitics interviews Stanford Professor Kevin Warsh.

Stop inflation now.

DougMacG

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Political Economics, WSJ, Repeal the Inflation Tax!
« Reply #2631 on: February 27, 2025, 04:44:53 AM »
WSJ Today. Very persuasive!

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/congress-can-repeal-the-inflation-tax-capital-gains-inflation-income-90672e76

Congress Can Repeal the Inflation Tax
‘Bracket creep’ is gone—unless you’re on Social Security, have capital gains or pay state taxes.
By Michael Solon
Feb. 26, 2025 5:08 pm ET

As the debate heats up about whether and how to extend the 2017 tax cuts, the jury is out on a key question: Did the cuts generate enough economic growth to pay for themselves? The answer is complicated by the effects of inflation, which during the Biden years functioned as a tax increase larger than the 2017 tax cut. The pandemic spending spree pushed up prices, which expanded federal revenue but also sapped consumer purchasing power. What taxpayers lost to inflation is exactly what government gained.

That several major tax thresholds aren’t indexed for inflation accounts for the inflation-fueled fiscal windfall. The income thresholds for taxing Social Security benefits aren’t indexed. Neither is the child tax credit, the $10,000 cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes, or the investment income threshold above which the ObamaCare surtax is applied. The basis used to measure and tax capital gains has never been indexed. As a result of all this, even if workers and investors saw their earnings rise by enough to offset inflation during the Biden administration, their real, after-tax incomes fell.

The early days of the Reagan administration hold a lesson for today’s congressional Republicans. Four decades ago, inflation was a major factor driving federal revenue. From 1973-81, the U.S. endured 9.2% average annual inflation. With an unindexed tax code that contained 33 income-tax brackets, federal revenue swelled as rising nominal income pushed families into higher tax brackets solely due to inflation. This process was called “bracket creep.” A Congressional Budget Office report in 1980 described it: “During much of the past decade, many taxpayers have found themselves paying larger fractions of their incomes to the federal government in income taxes.”

Good for the Treasury. Not so good for the average working family. As the CBO noted in 1980, if incomes simply matched the 1979 inflation rate of 13.3%, the tax liability for an average family of four “would increase by an average of 23.8%.” Instead, real median household income from 1973-80 fell by 3.1%, with after-tax incomes falling by more. Every working family was affected by this bracket creep—even those already in the highest tax bracket, for whom a larger share of the same real income was subject to the top rate. So was anyone who realized taxable nominal capital gains. On Jan. 2, 1973, the S&P 500 closed at 119.1. Nearly nine years later, on Dec. 31, 1981, it closed at 122.3, reflecting a meager 2.9% increase in nominal value. When adjusted for inflation, the value of the original 1973 investment had fallen by 55%. Yet taxpayers who sold an S&P 500 index fund paid capital-gains taxes on the nominal 2.9% gain. This occurred when any asset, including a home or business, was sold.

When the Reagan tax cuts reduced tax rates by 25%, most of that reduction simply offset bracket creep on ordinary income produced by inflation in 1979, after the last tax cut aimed at ameliorating inflation’s effect was adopted. The CBO in 1980 had sounded the alarm that “by 1982 . . . the increased tax burden under current law would reach an unprecedented level, constituting a significant fiscal drag on the economy.” Yet to this day, critics attack the Reagan tax cuts as irresponsible.

Then as now, debate raged about whether to index major parts of the tax code. Reagan ended the debate when he declared “we must protect the taxpayers from government.” His 1981 tax cut adjusted the personal exemption, the standard deduction and the tax brackets for inflation.

President Trump has committed to eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits and lifting the cap on the deductibility of state and local taxes. An affordable compromise might be to index both thresholds retroactively back to the beginning of the Biden administration. This would raise the excluded amounts for taxing Social Security for a single person to $30,250 from $25,000 and the SALT deduction to $12,100 from $10,000 and index both prospectively.

Given the recent inflation surge, it is time to consider indexing capital gains for inflation. This would do more than any provision in the 2017 tax cut to create an incentive for investing in America. If the objective of the pending tax cut is to stimulate economic growth, there is a strong argument for indexing the capital-gains tax. If this election had any single defining economic issue, it was repairing the damage done by the Biden inflation.

With the gross federal debt having more than tripled since President Obama was elected, and interest rates having risen by 364%, indexing the tax code is long overdue. It becomes more urgent as the probability of future inflation rises. Most government entitlement programs are indexed to rise with inflation, and the entire federal budget is effectively inflation-adjusted. Only workers, retirees and investors aren’t protected from inflation. It is time to treat the people pulling the wagon as well as we treat those who are riding in the wagon.

Mr. Solon served as an assistant to two Republican Senate leaders.

« Last Edit: February 27, 2025, 06:20:22 AM by DougMacG »


DougMacG

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2633 on: March 04, 2025, 07:17:55 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/a-poor-north-carolina-county-is-counting-on-trump-for-a-comeback-f6f1c82b
(sorry, paywall blocked.)

(Doug) Economically we are in a period called the Biden Hangover. Trump is President but the policies promised are not yet in force.

The argument of the last election was that those policies had those results. And now those same policies still have those results, even though we supposedly changed horses.

The current law of the land is that we will have the biggest tax increase in history on January 1, if the Trump tax cuts are not extended. And they haven't been. Who would make long-term Investments facing that?

While it seems we are turning things around at Breakneck speed, the biggest things are not happening yet.

Republicans control the House, Senate and White House. I get it that the majorities are slim and there isn't 100% agreement on our own side, but where is the reconciliation bill?

Last week I posted a Wall Street Journal opinion article called, Repeal the Inflation Tax. Maybe I should have been more clear in my words, do it bleeping now! This isn't an item for idle discussion or long-term goal. It's an action item and the window to do it is closing.

What is the alternative argument, keep the tax on inflation?!?!

The Ukraine ball is now in Zelensky's and Europe's court. How about we fix ours? Wasn't that the point?

Tonight president Trump will address a joint session of Congress and the nation. He will talk about the American Dream. How is that going to come about, by wishful thinking or flowery rhetoric? We need action. We need change, and respect for The Law of Holes. When you're in one, stop digging. The impending tax increase and the tax on inflation are both examples of the economy digging itself into a hole. Do we want results like Biden's?

The recent actions of DOGE show that change can happen fast. We need way more than that to build our way out of this. The time is now.

Disruption is difficult. We need positive results that start now.

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2634 on: March 04, 2025, 08:31:07 AM »
additionally Mexico and Canada has called Trump's bluff on tariffs. Now we are in a tariff war.

a total game of chicken

insulting them to begin with only made their leadership want to save face and dig in deeper.

I expect poll numbers to drop for us.

And the alternative party has NO clue NO concern other then to maintain status quo and maintain their power while we go broke.

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2635 on: March 04, 2025, 09:18:06 AM »
"insulting them to begin with only made their leadership want to save face and dig in deeper."

That seems right but the old approach is what got us to this point.

Watching sausage being made...  The end game is what really matters and we need the end game sooner!

Didn't the labor party prime minister of the UK already say he wants free trade with the United States.

These tariffs and trade wars hurt us and they hurt the other country even more. Yes yes, a game of chicken, I hope they give in quickly.

Our demands need to be made more clear.

The head of Ontario has promised to shut off electricity crossing the border. The US obtains less than 1/1000 of our electricity from Canada.

This whole thing is going to hit Canada harder, but it is hitting us.

Meanwhile, he picked these fights before he has put his own agenda through Congress. I expect him to put some urgency on that in the speech tonight.

DougMacG

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Political Economics, Newt
« Reply #2636 on: March 04, 2025, 09:21:04 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GoO6FoVZ6Mc

Newt starts at about the 2-minute mark. The whole thing is good. One point is that we will lose the house and probably the Senate if we don't pass our agenda and get positive results from it. He says by July 4th. I think that's ridiculous, it needs to happen now.

ccp

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Guests at speech tonight
« Reply #2637 on: March 04, 2025, 10:02:05 AM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-guests-speech-address-congress-2025/

I hope he spends REAL time on the debt and economy
and discussed tariffs tax cuts , for every taxpaying American and NO not just for the rich.

Look at who the crats are inviting = fired Fed government workers

So their response AS ALWAYS is more government .  Why should most Americans give 2 poops for a small minority of Fed Employees who were not needed.   Trump should address this too BEFORE Slotkin opens he bid DEM mouth to whine about Bureaucracy employess to the 98% who are not in that group.

Do we really need Linken Riley again?

and some of the others great for the base but absolutely NOT top of the  list for the masses.


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Political Economics, Tlaibconomics
« Reply #2638 on: March 07, 2025, 09:23:51 AM »
In the push for a million reads to this thread, I offer the opposition viewpoint, in their own words:  Rashida Tlaib-conomics.

They call it economic democracy but of course it's the opposite.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/06/republicans-oligarchy-economic-democracy

I read the opposition right up until I run into the first lie or falsehood in the article, then stop. It's generally found at the start of the first sentence. This one starts with, "Republicans want corporate oligarchy".    - No they don't.

Strange that they equate equal outcomes with democracy. Of course it's just the opposite. Only through coercion and force can there be equal outcomes. It's not the natural state of things. If you wanted to just regulate fairness instead of try to control outcomes, you would probably call yourself a Republican.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2025, 09:32:54 AM by DougMacG »

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DataRepublican’s Political Economics Tool
« Reply #2639 on: March 09, 2025, 01:55:58 AM »
Perhaps misfiled, but given that this tool allows the average citizen to unravel where their tax dollars go and unearth the political ends associated with that spend I’ll drop this link to a video showing how to use the tools created by DataRepublican (small r) to ferret out who and what orgs are beneficiaries of American tax payer largesse, and speculate as to the political end:

https://x.com/TheShawnHendrix/status/1898383103179006244

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Data Republican
« Reply #2640 on: March 09, 2025, 09:29:26 AM »
This thread will be fine for DR content.   She does very good work!

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FO: Trump strategy is to detox economy
« Reply #2641 on: March 10, 2025, 08:40:10 AM »


(1) BESSENT: U.S. ECONOMY TO GO THROUGH DETOX PERIOD: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there will be a “detox period” as the Trump administration shifts economic growth from public spending to the private sector.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump administration economic policies will lead to a “three or four percent growth” in U.S. GDP, and the Trump administration is attempting a pivot to increasing manufacturing jobs while reducing government employment.

Deutsche Bank macro research chief Jim Reid said Trump officials’ statements suggest the administration is prepared for some pain to reorient the U.S. economy, and the Trump administration’s pain level is higher than most believed a few weeks ago.

Why It Matters: Government spending cuts will reduce GDP in the short term, and Hassett’s three to four percent GDP growth estimate is likely an estimate of long term growth. Lutnick and other Trump officials are calling to separate government spending from GDP headline growth statistics, likely with the intent to prevent massive government spending cuts from scaring markets. - R.C.


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Re: FO: Trump strategy is to detox economy
« Reply #2643 on: March 11, 2025, 07:25:43 AM »


(1) BESSENT: U.S. ECONOMY TO GO THROUGH DETOX PERIOD: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there will be a “detox period” as the Trump administration shifts economic growth from public spending to the private sector.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Trump administration economic policies will lead to a “three or four percent growth” in U.S. GDP, and the Trump administration is attempting a pivot to increasing manufacturing jobs while reducing government employment.

Deutsche Bank macro research chief Jim Reid said Trump officials’ statements suggest the administration is prepared for some pain to reorient the U.S. economy, and the Trump administration’s pain level is higher than most believed a few weeks ago.

Why It Matters: Government spending cuts will reduce GDP in the short term, and Hassett’s three to four percent GDP growth estimate is likely an estimate of long term growth. Lutnick and other Trump officials are calling to separate government spending from GDP headline growth statistics, likely with the intent to prevent massive government spending cuts from scaring markets. - R.C.

A lesson already learned, Recession 1979-1980, 1981-82.

If you remove the fake stimulus and delay the real stimulus you will pay a heavy price in the time in between.

Besides downturn and unemployment, you will lose the midterms and the power to govern.

At this moment, investors face the largest tax increase in history at the end of this year. Investors are still taxed on inflation. Government workers are losing jobs. Government was the only component of growth, now gone. Consumers face potential price increases with tariffs.

We are moving at Breakneck speed on all the small stuff. How about passing some big stuff, now!

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tariffs' endgame
« Reply #2644 on: March 11, 2025, 09:00:48 AM »
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/03/10/donald_trumps_endgame_with_tariffs_is_not_what_you_think_1096444.html

Good economic truths in this article but I don't like where he goes with it.

Replacing the income tax requires repealing the power to tax income, and that is not politically possible in our lifetime.

So don't go raising other taxes thinking that it is leading there. It isn't.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2025, 01:44:39 PM by Crafty_Dog »

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Re: Political Economics
« Reply #2645 on: March 11, 2025, 01:55:34 PM »
I have a somewhat different response:

The article's analytical framework is purely economic and IMHO not all that deep even when judged by that standard e.g. its description of effects of a factory moving to Mexico.

Staying with economics, does not a trade deficit mean a flow of money to other countries?  Is this not the raw material out of which the forces for dedollarization feed?  And the money used to buy up our factories, businesses, farmland, etc?

And what of the products and businesses with strategic implications?

"Replacing the income tax requires repealing the power to tax income, and that is not politically possible in our lifetime."

Not necessary to repeal the relevant C'l amendment, only to repeal the laws in question.  This can be done incrementally as tariffs take hold and income tax and other taxes reduced in equal measure.