India/Indian Ocean, India-China, India Afpakia

[G M]

If India formally recognized Taiwan and signed a mutual defense treaty, that would be a gut punch for Beijing.

India will almost certainly (near 100%, IMHO) take advantage of the situation, if Taiwan benefits that would be great. India has for decades faced the threat of a two front war with Pak and China ganging up together as they are doing right now, and prepared for it (however imperfectly). Missing such an opportunity would be the biggest strategic blunder! and the current Modi govt is unlikely to let such an opportunity go by.

Infact my guess is India would not directly attack China but make a dash for Gilgit Baltistan and POK through which passes the CPEC. China will be in no position to defend Pak or get involved to save CPEC, nor do they have any legal rights in the matter. Once Gilgit-Baltistan is taken back, China's border access with Pak ends and China will agree to demarcate border between India and China. At that point Aksai Chin captured by China in the 1962 war and the few sq miles of current border issues will be renegotiated, perhaps exchanged in lieu of Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar which are hindu pilgrimage sites (abode of Lord Shiva per mythology). China needs Aksai Chin as an important highway G219 passes through it, for India that is just barren land and would be happy to take Mt.Kailash and Mansarovar instead.

China is aware that they could lose access to CPEC roads through POK which lead to Gwadar port (Pak) and have recently made alternate arrangements with Iran (40 billion investment) to have access to Chabahar port (Iraq) for warm water access. It is the official stated position of the BJP govt to take back POK/Gilgit-Baltistan soon.

As much as I wish that China will make a grab for Taiwan (and fail), it wont happen. Per the Indian news channels, China is being given a face saver to withdraw with their dignity intact. Many in the west have not given much attention to the Indian Chief of Defense Staff's statement, that if diplomacy with China will not work, military options are on the table. Indian military generals are very careful and never make such direct statements or empty threats. 6 Army Cmdr level talks, as well as several Foreign Secretary level talks have failed. Patience is running thin.

Based on the above thinking, China cannot attack Taiwan, unless they plan to remain a bystander while India takes back Gilgit/Baltistan. So yes, attacking Taiwan runs the risk of a difficult war, or at the very least loss of CPEC and access to POK.

China is $crewed, with whats going in the world and asia-pacific, not everyone appreciates this. Huawei is being rejected world wide, supply chains are being re-directed, new alliances are being formed. This megalomania of Xi has been very expensive and premature for the Chinese.

[DougMacG]

'what a great post.

"China is $crewed, with what''s going in the world and asia-pacific, not everyone appreciates this. Huawei is being rejected world wide, supply chains are being re-directed, new alliances are being formed. This megalomania of Xi has been very expensive and premature for the Chinese."


Yes.  Huawei almost enabled China to take over the world.  They didn't see Trump, Pompeo and Modi coming. We thought patience  was their strength, but if this aggression could have waited ten years, maybe they could have passed up everyone economically and militarily first.

Now they are surrounded, and screwed.

[ccp]

so the best option for dealing with the Chinese is multi-national containment

if only the Europeans would contribute more

[ya]

Looks like one more border clash with Chinese  in the Chushul area, opposite Pangong Tso. News trickling in. As in Galwan more beating for Chinese from initial news.

[Crafty_Dog]

YA-- good stuff.  The Taiwan variable is not one I had put together in my mind.

[ya]

Looks like 300-500 chinese soldiers tried to occupy some strategic heights, Indian army detected them and took the heights first, perhaps a few km in Chinese occupied territory. India now has command of much of that region. India has a few thousand soldiers of the Tibetan Special Frontier Force who participated in this. These are Tibetan exiles and sons of the soil, who have an animosity to China. They are attuned to the mountainous region, which is around 15000 feet. Rumors of Chinese prisoners and a chinese post being overrun!.

the general map of the region

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3099642/us-seeks-formal-alliance-similar-nato-india-japan-and-australia-state?utm_content=article&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1598909439

[ccp]

asian nato?

somebody read my idea on 8/30/20.

 

[DougMacG]

asian nato?

somebody read my idea on 8/30/20.

 

Yes.  Famous people reading the forum.

https://dogbrothers.com/phpBB2/index.php?topic=2134.msg125529#msg125529

[ccp]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/how-growth-in-family-business-of-cpec-chairman-asim-bajwa-mirrors-his-rise-in-pak-army/articleshow/77864802.cms

could be the Pelosi Feinstein or Biden families

[ya]

India does its own salami slicing (probably first time ever), after the Chief of Defense Staff warned about military options and the Chinese dont like it. According to news reports, the southern side of Pangong Tso is now under Indian control and the Chinese are not liking it. They tried to recapture some heights and were  pushed back.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eastern-ladakh-on-knife-edge-army-foils-fresh-action-by-pla/articleshow/77879958.cms

China has about 2 months to complete its offensive. From Nov onwards it is likely too late as it gets quite cold. The cold starts from the northern Tibetan plains and gradually moves south towards north India. Thus, India can hold on longer and also the spring thaw occurs first in Indian Ladakh and then moves north towards Tibet.

China is under pressure, they need to do something as they lost the heights on the south side of Pangong Tso. This is a dangerous period.

[Crafty_Dog]

By: Geopolitical Futures

India and Russia get close.

Several developments this week indicate the current state of Russia-India relations. First, the co-director of the Russian-Indian joint venture BrahMos said the company hopes to develop its hypersonic cruise missile by 2028. He also said that orders for the missile had increased by $1 billion in the past six months, despite the global economic uncertainty produced by the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, India said it planned to increase its purchase of Russian coking coal and anthracite from less than 1 million tons per year to 40 million tons per year (worth about $4.5 billion at current prices). Russia’s total coking coal and anthracite exports amount to 46 million tons, meaning India would be buying nearly all of Russia’s exports. Russia’s Ministry of Energy has asked for state support to help develop the southern terminal at Taman, located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, to help deliver the products at cost-effective prices.

Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly expressed interest in having India help produce a vaccine against COVID-19. And it was announced on Monday that India’s foreign minister plans to visit Russia in September ahead of the next Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit and on the eve of the large-scale strategic exercise called Kavkaz-2020, which will be hosted by Russia and attended by India and Pakistan. These developments are all indicators that the two countries are looking to each other for support, and indeed, New Delhi relies on Moscow for energy and collaboration on military matters, but their ties are limited by potential disapproval from both the United States, a key partner for India, and China, a strategic ally for Russia.

[ya]

With reference to above..India has indicated it will not attend the Kavkaz-20 exercises, because China and Pak are participating (official reason is due to COVID).

Here's a short Indian news video, about the sigbnificance of the recent action by Indian troops on the border.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1301123775866441728

[ya]

Nice article on what happened at the India -China border a week ago. There has been a paradigm shift in how India will deal with China. For years, India has been defensive wrt to Pak, with airstrikes and surgical strikes, India changed that, Pak has been relatively quiet after that. With respect to China, India has been defensive and reactive for decades. Now that has changed and the Chinese are surprised, looks like they never factored that in.

As I have said before, when going to war Indian soldiers pray to their gods. The Sudarshan Chakra is a weapon wielded by Lord Krishna, who  was known only to play the flute. It is difficult to translate...the shloka referred to below, its a poetic form of Sanskrit discussed in the article below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudarshana_Chakra#:~:text=The%20name%20of%20the%20disc,Sudarshana%20Chakra%20a%20few%20times.

https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/indian-offensive-retake-chinese-seized-territory-hidden-story

Indian offensive to retake Chinese seized territory: The hidden story

Danvir Singh
Published : September 6, 2020, 12:19 am | Updated : September 6, 2020, 2:39 PM
 

New Delhi: On 3 July, the Prime Minister of India arrived at Leh on a surprise visit. Flanked by his Army Chief and the Chief of Defence Staff, he was received by the Army Commander of Northern Command, Lt Gen Y.K. Joshi and the GOC 14 Corps, Lt Gen Harinder Singh. Both of them are responsible for the defence of Ladakh at strategic and operational levels, respectively.

This visit came in the backdrop of the unfortunate incident at Galwan on the night of 14-15 June. The nation was outraged. The death of 20 soldiers sent shockwaves through the country. The situation was really grim. The world was eager to hear Narendra Modi. The nightmarish thought of a repeat of 1962 was on everyone’s mind.

The Dragon appeared to be too aggressive and dangerous. He had moved up and close with 20,000 troops of the 4th Motorized Division and 6th Mechanized Division, equipped with light tanks, rockets and heavy artillery, ready to strike deep. India was caught off guard.

Soon after his arrival at Nimu, Prime Minister Modi was briefed by the Generals on the ground. Lt Gen Harinder Singh briefed him about what action the Chinese army had taken and what they were likely to do next. The Prime Minister listened to his General and somewhere during the course of the briefing he said, “I am not interested in what the Chinese have done and what they will do, I am interested in what you have done and what you will do.” The interjection was set to alter the future course.

He, after being updated, addressed the freshly inducted troops of 17 Corps acclimatizing at Nimu. These were the troops of India’s only mountain strike corps. They were inducted recently to deal with the dual threat from China and Pakistan. The PM’s message was for the world, India’s belligerent neighbour and his mighty military machine.

He quoted a shloka to convey that message. It was heard all across the globe. He said, “A brave-heart protects the motherland with the power of his weapons. This land is for the brave. Our support, strength and resolve for its defence and security are as high as the Himalayas. I can see this ability and resolve in your eyes right now. It is clearly visible on your faces. You are the heroes of the same land that has repulsed the attacks and atrocities of many invaders for thousands of years. This is our identity. We are the people who worship Lord Krishna who plays the flute. We are also the same people who follow Sudarshan Chakradhari Krishna as an ideal. With this inspiration, India has emerged stronger after every attack.”

TIME TO REWRITE HISTORY

This morale boosting massage was signalling India’s strategic intent that ran too deep. More than anyone else, they were the Indian Army Generals who were listening very carefully.

It was time to rewrite history. The unthinkable so far was to be done. It was to be an offensive action of quid pro quo into Chinese-seized territory. The Prime Minister in his address had also said that “the weak cannot initiate peace. Bravery is a precondition to peace.” The Generals were quick to understand the shifting paradigm.

From the initial stages of these border tensions, the Chinese had successfully drawn the Indian troops into various face-offs, spreading in penny packets and minor tactical manoeuvres. Indians were caught in a reactive mode. Indian troops were tied down at a number of places over wide frontages. Stretching from Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in the north to Pangong Lake in the south, this was roughly 300 kilometres in extent. The initiative was completely with the Dragon.

By early July, India had also deployed its troops from the Northern Command reserve. Soon after the Galwan clashes this Division was moved up from Himachal Pradesh, directly into the frontlines in Ladakh, thus beefing up the defences. The holding 14 Corps, however, demanded more and more troops that were ever insufficient—a typical defender’s syndrome where the troops are never enough and there is always a piece of ground left to be occupied.

But this was exactly the way Indian Army was made to behave while dealing with the Chinese, right from the 1950s onward. The debacle of 1962 had forced upon us a strong defensive mindset. India stood psychologically paralysed in the aftermath. The Chinese exploited this state and made transgressions and intrusions with impunity: an annual feature of sorts.

The differing perceptions of the LAC worked to China’s advantage. They would come forward by two steps and retreat by one; thus in five decades we lost hundreds of square kilometres to their salami slicing tactics.

STATIC DEFENCE IS A THING OF THE PAST

However, the Doklam crisis of June 2017 changed all that. The handling of this crisis with alacrity instilled the much-needed confidence into our establishment. The Chinese were dealt with firmly from a position of strength. Indians had pre-empted the PLA’s move by occupying the dominating ridge line and stalling their planned ingress. General Bipin Rawat was the Army Chief at the helm of affairs, and is now India’s first CDS.

Presently, General Manoj Mukund Naravane, Chief of Army Staff, is handling the current crisis. His vast hands-on experience in dealing with the Chinese is a blessing. Offensive plans were drawn under his watch and vetted at the highest levels. The strategy of static defence was an antiquated idea by now.

Concurrently to this planning, defences were bolstered all across the LAC. Additional divisions were mobilised, building upon the existing force levels already deployed right across to the last bend of Arunachal Pradesh.

To deny the Chinese any surprises from air, Indian Air Force was conducting round the clock airspace domination. Indian Army had also carried operational deployment of various strategic assets like the land version of Brahmos cruise missiles by the end of June. All avenues of Chinese ingress, if any, were plugged by now.

The LAC held firmly in strength, the defensive plans over land were all in place, complemented by those at sea and in the air. This seriousness and resolve beckoned India’s intention to defend every inch of her territory.

Indian Navy had also set sail into the deep blue waters of Indian Ocean. Our warships were well poised, threatening the Chinese supply lines passing through the Malaca Strait, just in case the balloon went up. In the Far East, Indian naval warships were also carrying sea manoeuvres alongside the ships of friendly world powers in the disputed waters of South China Sea. Global support had been mobilised in India’s favour.

Earlier in Ladakh, a brigade had been pulled out of the Army Headquarters’ reserve Mountain Division and brought into 14 Corps zone. The great strategic airlift by C-17 Globe Masters of Indian Air Force was executed. These gigantic machines ferried tons weapons, ammunition and logistics alongside the troop build-up throughout May and June.

On 21 May, the first brigade of this reserve arrived in Leh. Initially, they were tasked to augment the existing resources of 14 Corps in holding role. However, the Galwan incident of mid-June changed the dynamics. Since an offensive action was on the table, it was decided to bring in the rest of this Mountain Division. The air lift began soon thereafter and this Division closed in by 20 June, now armed with fresh operational mandate.

The 17 Corps, India’s sole strike corps, was fully acclimatized and prepared for any eventuality, though not to be committed at this early stage. However, the GOC 17 Corps, Lt General Sawneet Singh was given an additional task: to exercise operational control of this newly inducted crack Mountain Division. Trained to infiltrate and strike deep behind enemy lines. They were capable of turning the enemy’s defences.

By now, the reserve Division of Northern Command was also deployed, beefing up the entire defences along the LAC in Ladakh. Deployments were from the Depsang plains to the occupying heights around Galwan, providing depth to the Shyok-Dubruk-DBO road and strengthening the Dungti-Demchok corridor.

The military to military negotiations continued. A number of rounds were conducted, with each talk lasting for hours. The efforts were to amicably resolve the dispute through talks. Unfortunately, all these talks failed to make any substantial headway. In the meanwhile, our plans for a quid pro quo were in place with multiple options.

OVER OPTIMISTIC CHINA

The haplessness of the Indian establishment was also clearly manifesting with each failed talk. This in turn made the Chinese over-optimistic of their strategy. Their grand plan appeared to be to hold fast and not relent to the Indian demand of pre-April positions. The idea seemed to be to exhaust the Indian Army through the winter deployments. The huge economic cost of prolonged military mobilization was likely to prove unsustainable for a de-growing economy in these Covid times. Thus China would win this war without firing a single shot.

On our side, amongst other challenges, there was strong unhappiness in the rank and file of the Indian Army. They were unhappy in the manner they were used at Pangong and Galwan, fighting the PLA with sticks and stones.

This failed strategy had led to the death of 20 soldiers, with an equal or a greater number of casualties on the other side. The scenes of soldiers throwing stones and using clubs to defend themselves had brought a lot of embarrassment to the professional Army. It was now the time to test our tactical acumen and flex our muscles.

OFFENSIVE PLANS

In early August, this newly inducted Mountain Division was fully acclimatized. They had started to carry out reconnaissance and validate their offensive plans. These plans were so secret that even the holding formation troops were unaware of what was going on. Options were carefully drawn and diligently vetted.

By 24 August, one plan was finally given the go ahead. Simultaneously, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat also cautioned the nation to stay prepared for any eventuality, even if that meant war.

At ground zero, the company commanders and platoon commanders of this elite mountain division had by now selected their routes of infiltration, identified tactical heights to be occupied and timed their paces for speedy retaking.

From the word go, the final phase of the retaking was planned to be completed in 120 minutes flat. Artillery was put in place, ready to support the infiltrating troops should the need arose. Armoured elements were well poised, ready to out-manoeuvre and destroy any PLA attempt, if they thrust into the Chushul valley. Air defence troops were also deployed with shoulder fired anti-aircraft Igla missiles, networked and coordinated to shoot down any Chinese aircraft interfering with our advancing troops.

The Chinese on their side had their mechanized Combat Team located in Spangur near Moldo. They had 33-ton T15 light tanks designed to fight a battle in this high-altitude region.

GEARED FOR ACTION

The Indian troops were fully geared for action, all ends tied, contingencies catered for and rehearsed. We were ready to strike. The objective was Spangur Bowl, an area south of Pangong and east of Chushul.

The features dominating the Spangur gap provided great tactical dominance and huge strategic advantages. Black Top, Helmet, Magar and Gurung Hills stretching right up to Rezang La were these features. Under the cover of darkness, Indian infiltrating troops moved up to the LAC, established their release points and waited for the green signal. Some troops mounted on high mobility vehicles and drove straight up to the objective—the 3 km ridgeline on the hill alongside Requin.

At the word go, these troops crossed over into the enemy claimed territory with lightning speed. The mountain division of Tibetan troops of the Special Frontier Force occupied the hill features, beating their own planned timings well under 120 minutes.

Before the break of dawn, one complete infantry brigade with over 2,000 troops was holding the heights overlooking the Spangur Bowl. Armed with French Milan anti-tank missiles and Carl Gustav rocket launchers, the Indians had literally rendered the Chinese armoured tanks at Moldo redundant and out manoeuvred. On 31August, the garrison at Moldo was virtually under siege.

Surprised and shocked, the Chinese mustered their club wielding troops and advanced towards the positions now held by the Indians. More shock was in wait. The Indians troops warned the advancing troops, but the PLA men continued with their advance. The Indians had to fire a few warning shots in the air, and this brought in new realities to the fore. The Chinese, on seeing the aggressive posture, fled, only to return a little later.

This time they came with their armoured personnel carriers, driving on their cemented road from Moldo to Rezang La. But this advance also came to a halt and was followed by a hasty retreat. The Indian troops were at a stone’s throw from the Moldo garrison, dominating each and every move of the PLA. The sight of anti-tank missiles and rocket launchers had deterred the move of the Chinese armoured personnel carrier and halted them in their tracks.

The Chinese had realised by now that they were not only outnumbered but totally out-flanked, making their position untenable. Any armed clash hereafter would prove suicidal. The annihilation of Moldo garrison was assured for the Chinese had clashes erupted. The Indians by now were firmly dug in.

The way of doing business on the borders with China has undergone a paradigm shift. In the past five decades this was the first ever offensive operation carried out against the Chinese. The initiative is now with India; the shoe is on the other foot. Having enhanced India’s negotiating power manifold, the unthinkable so far is now a new reality.

Col Danvir Singh (R) is an Associate Editor with Indian Defence Review. He commanded 9 Sikh LI and served as a Company Commander in Chushul Garrison in 2004-2005.

[Crafty_Dog]

Breaking norms in the Himalayas. On Monday night, the Chinese military accused Indian troops of crossing the so-called Line of Actual Control, the vaguely defined de facto border in parts of the Himalayas disputed between India and China. China also accused Indian troops of firing warning shots near the hotly contested Pangong Lake in eastern Ladakh. India on Tuesday made counteraccusations, saying it was Chinese troops who ventured across the Line of Actual Control and fired warning shots in an effort to intimidate their Indian counterparts. Tit-for-tat transgressions and low-level standoffs are nothing new in the theater, but if someone did indeed fire warning shots, it would mark the first shots fired in the area in more than two decades.
The informal ban on the use of any firearms, much less heavy weaponry, has helped keep a lid on escalation in the Himalayas for years. If the ban is scrapped, deadly incidents will be more likely, making it more difficult politically for either side to back down – even if geographic constraints continue to make another large-scale conflict in the high Himalayas nearly impossible. This comes less than a week after the Indian and Chinese defense ministers met in Moscow and ostensibly agreed to defuse tensions along the Line of Actual Control

[DougMacG]

[Moved here.] Strange bedfellows, Islamic extremists and a country that imprisons and worse a million Muslims in their country.
[https://nypost.com/2020/08/27/china-secretly-built-hundreds-of-prison-camps-to-hold-minority-muslims/?_ga=2.144715060.1044975406.1599602349-2137530746.1593048396]
-------------------------------
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Belt-and-Road/Reunified-Pakistani-Taliban-threatens-China-s-Belt-and-Road
BELT AND ROAD
Reunified Pakistani Taliban threatens China's Belt and Road
Factions regroup under an al-Qaeda umbrella with foothold near Xinjiang

September 8, 2020 15:04 JST
PESHAWAR, Pakistan -- As peace negotiations between the Afghan Taliban and the government in Kabul continue, Pakistan's leading Taliban group, which operates from Afghanistan, has announced the reunification of various breakaway factions.

Analysts believe this will cause internal security problems for Pakistan and also raise threats to projects linked to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the country's northwest.

"In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province's various remote areas, several Chinese development projects, mainly in the field of hydro-electricity generation and infrastructure, are going on," an Islamabad-based security official told the Nikkei Asian Review on condition of anonymity. "The Pakistan Taliban's recent reunification has increased concerns about the safety of Chinese nationals and projects."

The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, the Hizb ul-Ahrar, and Hakeemullah Mehsud group were the three major factions in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) until they splintered in 2014 over leadership issues. Last month, it was announced they were all getting back together, and also being joined by a faction of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a banned sectarian group that operates in the western province of Balochistan.

As a strong ally of al-Qaeda, the TTP became an umbrella organization for militant groups after its formation in December 2007 and has been involved in numerous terror attacks.


Pakistani Taliban fighters arrested by Afghan border police were paraded before the media with their weapons in Kabul in January 2016.    © Reuters
The TTP started out in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and in semi-autonomous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The terror group later expanded into other parts of the country, but was countered by a massive military operation launched in June 2014. The offensive shattered the TTP's command and control structure in tribal areas and forced the group to take sanctuary over the border in Afghanistan.

The rapidity of the TTP's reunification has surprised many. Analysts believe the various TTP splinters recognized that they would no longer be viable alone in a changing Afghanistan. In order to meet its peace talk commitment to stop harboring foreign militants, the Afghan Taliban would no longer be able to shelter the TTP.

"The self-realization of the threats for its survival in the changing political landscape of Afghanistan, and then possible pressures from the Afghan Taliban, could have played a more significant role behind this process of reunification," said Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher on Jihadi groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, told Nikkei.

The TTP reunification has alarmed China, which was already pressing Pakistan to crack down on ethnic separatist groups in Balochistan and Sindh provinces because of projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a prominent BRI component.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Chinese companies are working on several energy and infrastructure projects, including the Karakoram Highway Phase II. The Suki Kinari Hydropower Station and the Havelian Dry Port lie along the highway, which ends at the Khunjerab Pass in Gilgit-Baltistan. Over the border, it becomes China National Highway 314 leading to Urumqi, capital of the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.


Old Taliban threat rekindled -- Pakistani policemen carry the flag-draped coffin in 2011 of a colleague killed by a suicide bomber past their headquarters in Peshawar.     © Reuters
Increased militancy along the highway could jeopardize a key BRI link. Anti-China rhetoric has already increased immensely in TTP and al-Qaeda media. Among Baloch and Sindhi separatist groups, CPEC projects are already propaganda targets -- foreign intrusions that remind some analysts of the British East India Company's efforts in the 1850s.

"The TTP often issues detailed statements against the China state, condemning the situation faced by Chinese Muslims in their own country," said Sayed. "More importantly, targeting CPEC projects can create severe economic problems for the Pakistani state -- destabilizing it is the ultimate goal of TTP and its allied anti-state Jihadists."

In 2013 at China's request, Pakistani authorities outlawed three transitional militant groups linked to al-Qaeda -- the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Islamic Jihad Union. The Chinese believed they had established sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal areas with the help of the TTP.

Although China was initially less of a concern for the TTP than U.S. and Pakistani security forces, analysts believe that some transnational actors operating in Pakistan's tribal areas have encouraged the Pakistani Taliban to target Chinese projects as retaliation for the mistreatment of Muslims in Xinjiang province by Chinese security personnel.


An ethnic Uighur woman walks in the main square of Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. China's treatment of the Muslim minority has seriously riled the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.    © Reuters
In a 2014 video message titled "Let's disturb China," Mufti Abu Zar al-Burmi, an influential al-Qaeda ideologue who is a Pakistani national of Rohingya descent, described the pullout of U.S. forces from Afghanistan as "a victory for the Taliban movement in the region." He said China would be the next target, and directed all Jihadi groups, including TTP, to carry out attacks on Chinese embassies and companies, and to kidnap or kill Chinese nationals.

The TTP has already killed and kidnapped a number of Chinese, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces. With the TTP reunification, Pakistan security personnel have been beefing up numbers and intelligence to protect Chinese present in the region, according to security officials.

"The TTP's reunification can pose a threat in some districts of Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as the terror group has networks in these areas," Muhamamd Amir Rana, director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank, told Nikkei.

In 2019, the TTP and its splinter groups were the main causes of instability, carrying out 97 terrorist attacks, mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Balochistan that killed 209 people, according to a PIPS report.
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[ya]

Breaking norms in the Himalayas. On Monday night, the Chinese military accused Indian troops of crossing the so-called Line of Actual Control, the vaguely defined de facto border in parts of the Himalayas disputed between India and China. China also accused Indian troops of firing warning shots near the hotly contested Pangong Lake in eastern Ladakh. India on Tuesday made counteraccusations, saying it was Chinese troops who ventured across the Line of Actual Control and fired warning shots in an effort to intimidate their Indian counterparts. Tit-for-tat transgressions and low-level standoffs are nothing new in the theater, but if someone did indeed fire warning shots, it would mark the first shots fired in the area in more than two decades.
The informal ban on the use of any firearms, much less heavy weaponry, has helped keep a lid on escalation in the Himalayas for years. If the ban is scrapped, deadly incidents will be more likely, making it more difficult politically for either side to back down – even if geographic constraints continue to make another large-scale conflict in the high Himalayas nearly impossible. This comes less than a week after the Indian and Chinese defense ministers met in Moscow and ostensibly agreed to defuse tensions along the Line of Actual Control

It would be the first time in 4.5 decades not 2 decades. Things continue to slide downhill. Pictures on the web of Chinese soldiers from yesterday spotted with hand made weapons. There is a Foreign Minister meeting in the next few days, which may be the last chance to resolve the crisis. The defense minister meeting was not fruitful, same the commander level meetings. Dont think Xi or Modi are planning to talk anytime soon. What is interesting that China has not provided any maps as to where the LAC may lie and the LAC remains undefined. So how do they know who crossed the LAC ?.

[ya]

China has progressed from barbed wires on sticks to guandaos.

[ya]

China's Baghdad Bob threatening India..YA

Outside forces are misreading China's desire for peace
By Hu Xijin Source: Global Times Published: 2020/9/8 22:18:40


People familiar with the frontline situation along the China-India border told me that the People's Liberation Army (PLA)  has a firm control over the overall situation, and that in the event of a war, no matter how it is fought, the PLA will have the absolute certainty of defeating the Indian army. China will not lose an inch of territory along the China-India border. Chinese people can be rest assured.

Recent events have shown that China's overall deterrence has not been big enough to deter Indian troops from taking risks. The Indian side is still taking chances, misjudging and underestimating China's will to never compromise on the territorial issue. The Indian side always believes that China does not dare, will not or cannot go to war with the Indian side. Perhaps the fundamental reason is that China has not fought a war for more than 30 years and is committed to peaceful development. Some outside forces question our willingness to fight if necessary, arguing that we will compromise beyond the bottom line in order to ensure development.

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China's several foreign wars were all the result of the other side's miscalculation and underestimation of China's determination to fight. Before the 1962 war, India had no fear, encroaching on China's territory and challenging the PLA, and eventually India paid a heavy price. The situation today is very close to that before the outbreak of the 1962 war. As far as I know, the frontline situation is quite tense and there is a serious possibility of direct exchange of fire between the two sides.

I have close contact with the Chinese military and I am also a former soldier, I must warn the Indian side that the PLA does not fire the first shot, but if the Indian army fires the first shot at the PLA, the consequence must be the annihilation of the Indian army on the spot. If Indian troops dare to escalate the conflict, more Indian troops will be wiped out. The Indian army, which lost 20 soldiers in a physical clash (many of them froze to death after being injured in group fights), is no match for the PLA. Yes, we have some contempt for the combat capability of the Indian army.

China really wants peaceful development, so we haven't been a war with other countries for more than 30 years, and now we find that some outside forces are misreading China's desire for peace as weakness. Many Chinese are regretfully thinking that perhaps peaceful development is not the destiny of China as a great power, and probably fighting a war to demonstrate China's determination that it "dares to fight" is the price China has to pay. I want to warn New Delhi, it should be responsible for its actions, not to force China to demonstrate its strong will by striking provocative Indian troops who repeatedly crossed the LAC.   

China's policy toward India is backed by strength and if ordinary people are not afraid of Indian provocateurs, how could the PLA be intimidated by them? How can the country be weak in dealing with India? Everyone must believe that China has an upper hand over India. We have all kinds of initiatives in our hands and we will not allow India to take advantage of China, no matter it is negotiation or fighting a war.

The author is editor-in-chief of the Global Times. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

[Crafty_Dog]

Another Border Clash Heightens China-India Tensions
3 MINS READ
Sep 9, 2020 | 19:16 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS

Renewed altercations between Chinese and Indian forces in the disputed region of Ladakh reflect a growing risk of military escalation as China's growing presence along the two countries' border prompts India to more assertively defend its claimed territory. China and India have accused each other of firing shots during a Sept. 7 incident south of Pangong Lake, marking the first official claims of small arms fire on the border since 1975. While the situation in Ladakh had calmed down after the deadly June 15 melee in Galwan Valley, a resurgence of tensions is now occurring in a separate area of the disputed territory. Since Aug. 29, Chinese forces have allegedly been trying to cross into Indian controlled territory in the mountainous area between Pangong and Spanggur Lakes. India reportedly deployed troops to block these Chinese incursion attempts in several separate incidents. ...

Renewed altercations between Chinese and Indian forces in the disputed region of Ladakh reflect a growing risk of military escalation as China's growing presence along the two countries' border prompts India to more assertively defend its claimed territory. China and India have accused each other of firing shots during a Sept. 7 incident south of Pangong Lake, marking the first official claims of small arms fire on the border since 1975. While the situation in Ladakh had calmed down after the deadly June 15 melee in Galwan Valley, a resurgence of tensions is now occurring in a separate area of the disputed territory. Since Aug. 29, Chinese forces have allegedly been trying to cross into Indian controlled territory in the mountainous area between Pangong and Spanggur Lakes. India reportedly deployed troops to block these Chinese incursion attempts in several separate incidents.

India's recent move to grant commanders on the border with greater freedom to respond to Chinese threats has significantly raised the risk for localized violence that could escalate beyond New Delhi's strategic intent. India's rules of engagement previously restricted the use of firearms or explosives in this disputed area, which had limited the potential for escalation into broader violence during past incidents. After the bloody border clash with Chinese forces in June, however, the Indian army provided frontline commanders with complete freedom of action to respond to Chinese incursions as they saw fit. The impact of the rule change was not immediately apparent, as both Indian and Chinese moved to de-escalate their tensions in the weeks following the Galwan Valley incident. But the new reports of the use of firearms by Indian forces and deployments of Indian tanks near the Line of Actual Control, as well as even unconfirmed claims of anti-personnel mines being used. These developments demonstrate how India's new delegation of command authority has changed the dynamics for escalation along the Chinese border.

China, meanwhile, has shown little appetite for diplomatic engagement with India and has instead broadcasted its intent to remain on the path of escalation by continuing to expand its military infrastructure along the border. Efforts to hold high-level political negotiations over the Ladakh crisis have so far failed, including Russia's attempt to bring Chinese and Indian government officials together during BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization summits Russia hosted just last week. Without a committed push for a peaceful resolution, China's ongoing efforts to build up its air bases, air defenses and other military facilities along its border with India can only be read as an attempt to continue to aggressively pursue Beijing's disputed territorial claims with New Delhi over the longer term. India has struggled to provide an answer to this mounting challenge, but it is now taking more decisive action within the border region itself through a more assertive military posture. But as evidenced by the recent claims of exchanged gunfire, such moves come with an added risk of spurring an actual military confrontation with China.

[ya]

China is caught in a bind, for decades they could just walk-in anywhere and occupy territory. This time there has been pushback. Not only that, India has occupied the dominant heights on the South side of Pangong lake. The Northern shore of the lake (Fingers 4-8) which had been occupied by China, has also had what the Indian army calls "readjustments". The Indian army now occupies higher ground than the Chinese in the fingers region. As a result, China has had to withdraw from Finger 4.

The foreign minister talks yesterday seem to not have made any progress. There are reports that the crisis is now being managed from Beijing by CCP with little operational authority to local commanders. Overall, Xi is damned if he attacks and damned if he does not!. India it seems has decided to not fire the first bullet, but is prepared for war, should the Chinese initiate it.

In a short to medium term war, India has the upper hand. In a long drawn out war China has the edge because of their greater MIC and industrial strength. Chinese have tried to reoccupy some heights but have been pushed back. The Chinese soldiers have a few choices, attack India and die immediately or go back to re-education camps and die slowly.

[Crafty_Dog]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2020/09/09/china-is-arming-its-soldiers-with-medieval-halberds-to-fight-india/#6734ebb25180

[ya]

Indian military has changed SOP's, medieval weapons will be responded to with bullets. Its all psyops.
There are plenty of reports of Chinese soldiers living in oxygen supported tents, food supplied by delivery drones just an app click away. All of this makes the chinese soldiers a weakling army of 19 year old conscripts. As long as men and not equipment wins wars, China will lose.

https://youtu.be/34L8ttiuSeg

[ya]

Nice article on what India did a few weeks ago. Now all the commanding heights are in Indian hands. China will take heavy casualties if they want them back.

China has their CPC meeting next year. Xi needs to show some wins, now that the whole world is angry with China for their virus. China has 3 regions to show case domination, India border, S.China sea or Taiwan. Looks like action in the S.China sea against some small country might be the only winnable option.

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/the-big-story/story/20200921-border-brinkmanship-1720877-2020-09-12

[ya]

Bhutan is another neighbor that China wants to gobble up. Last time India saved their territory at Doklam. Not sure how much longer they can survive without merging into India..like Sikkim, which is now part of Indian states.

https://www.news18.com/news/india/amid-border-row-with-india-china-now-readies-new-expansion-plan-this-time-it-is-bhutan-2873683.html

Amid Border Row with India, China Now Readies New Expansion Plan. This Time it is Bhutan

The PLA has intruded into five areas of western Bhutan and laid claim to a new boundary extending about 40 km inside Bhutan, to the east of Chumbi Valley, diplomats based in Thimpu and New Delhi said.
NEWS18.COM NEW DELHI
LAST UPDATED: SEPTEMBER 13, 2020, 10:50 PM IST

Ahead of the 25th round of boundary talks between China and Bhutan, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is set to open a front against the Kingdom with a build-up in its western and central parts to settle the border on terms favourable to Beijing, people in the know told the Hindustan Times.

In the forthcoming negotiations, China may use transgressions and encroachments in central Bhutan by the PLA for a trade-off on already encroached areas and the Kingdom's western part, the people said. However, Bhutan has been sensitised about the PLA threat at the highest levels, they added.

India and China recently reached a five-point consensus to resolve the four-month-long military standoff in eastern Ladakh, agreeing to "quickly disengage" troops, avoid any action that could escalate tensions and take steps to restore peace along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

However, as Bhutan lies next to the Siliguri corridor, any territorial compromise by Thimpu would have an adverse effect on India's defences in the area, the report states.

In 2017, India had assisted Bhutan in holding its own against the PLA during stand-off at Doklam which lasted for 73 days. But people from India’s military, diplomatic and security establishment told HT on condition of anonymity that the PLA had not stopped testing the Indian and Bhutanese armies in the area.

Beijing's territorial claims in Bhutan include 318 sq km in the western sector and 495 sq km in the central sector. The PLA continues to build roads and construct military infrastructure to intimidate the Bhutanese Army by ways of aggressive patrolling and denial of access, the people said.

The PLA has intruded into five areas of western Bhutan and laid claim to a new boundary extending about 40 km inside Bhutan, to the east of Chumbi Valley, diplomats based in Thimpu and New Delhi said.

PLA patrols crossed the main stream of Torsa nullah (Dolong Chu) into south Doklam and asked Bhutanese herders (who were grazing their livestock) to vacate the area near Raja Rani lake on August 13 and 24, the report mentions.

Through these moves, the Chinese Army wants India and Bhutan to agree that the country's boundary extends to Gyemochen on Jhampheri ridge rather than on the Sinche la -Batang La axis, the true alignment of the trijunction. This is what Indian Army had stopped the PLA from doing in 2017.

National Security planners said PLA had increased surveillance in north Doklam by installing surveillance cameras. It continues "aggressive military technical upgradation" on the Chinese side of the contested plateau, they said.

Bhutan has asked its Army to prepare for a reaction plan by deploying additional troops to prevent PLA from coming south of Torsa nullah or unilaterally alter the disengagement lines which Beijing agreed to in Doklam in 2017.

China had also raised an objection against Bhutan's Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) Project in June, on the contention that it was located in a disputed border area. The 750 sq km sanctuary is located in the eastern Trashigang Dzongkhag of Bhutan, and borders India and China. India may become part of this contest as the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary abuts Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims as its territory.

This new claim by China was a surprise for Thimpu as Beijing had never before claimed any land in Eastern Bhutan, analysts said. China had not even mentioned the area in the 36 years of diplomatic talks with Bhutan to resolve their boundary disputes.

Thimpu has rejected the claim and conveyed that Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary is 'not disputed' and is a sovereign territory of Bhutan. However, China's Foreign Ministry has made an official declaration stating that “the boundary between China and Bhutan has never been delimited. There have been disputes over the eastern, central and western sectors for a long time”.

[ya]

https://www.thestatesman.com/opinion/battle-chinas-hands-1502923854.html
A battle on China’s hands

HARSHA KAKAR | New Delhi | September 15, 2020 7:40 am

After India occupied dominating features along the Line of Actual Control, China resorted to intense propaganda warfare, threatening India with war. The levels of propaganda kept rising with each passing day. The Global Times, accused India of initiating firing and said on 8 September, “the Indian army outrageously fired warning shots at Chinese border defence patrol personnel who were attempting to negotiate, which is a serious military provocation and very vile in nature.”

Colonel Zhang Shuili, spokesperson for the Western Theatre Command of the PLA stated, “We request the Indian side to immediately stop dangerous actions, immediately withdraw cross-line personnel, strictly restrain front-line troops, and strictly investigate and punish personnel who fired shots.” This Chinese statement was released at 3 am, China time, displaying it was a desperate move and fake.

The Indian army refuted Chinese claims, stating, “In the instant case, it was China’s PLA troops who were attempting to close-in with one of our forward positions along the LAC and when dissuaded by own troops, PLA troops fired a few rounds in the air in an attempt to intimidate own troops.” The game of claims and counter claims has just begun. Since India’s offensive actions, CCP controlled Chinese media has been on an overdrive warning India of dire consequences.

Most Chinese media compared the current scenario with 1962. The Global Times stated on 8 September, “China claimed victory in the 1962 war, which should be a lesson for India. Moreover, the military capability of the PLA is not what it used to be decades ago. Now, the PLA is a modern one with information capability, systematic combat capability and joint combat capability.” Another article on the same day stated, “the PLA does not fire the first shot, but if the Indian army fires the first shot at the PLA, the consequence must be the annihilation of the Indian army on the spot. If Indian troops dare to escalate the conflict, more Indian troops will be wiped out.”

These comments appeared on social media seeking to influence the Indian public, opposition politicians and peaceniks, hoping for pressure on the government to scale back and withdraw from locations which have placed Chinese positions under threat. Currently, the only option open to China is launching assaults leading to high cost of Chinese lives.

There are many aspects which Chinese media will never mention as it would prove their propaganda fake. In 1962, Indian forces, lacking ammunition, winter clothing, artillery and air support, fought in isolated posts till the last man and last round, causing such high casualties that the Chinese were shocked and in cases had no resources to push operations ahead. These shortcomings no longer exist.

China will never mention the September 1967 Nathu La and Cho La clashes, where it suffered heavy casualties and was forced to withdraw in defeat. Nor will they declare their high casualties at Galwan, despite internal pressure, which would be embarrassing. Nor will China mention the valour and experience of Indian forces assaulting dizzying heights of Kargil and Siachen successfully.

Another fact which the CCP-controlled Chinese media will hide is that Chinese Han soldiers are at a major disadvantage in Ladakh. Sixty per cent of the Chinese army consists of conscripts recruited for a limited tenure from rural China. They join to gain benefits in future employment, not for fighting wars. These soldiers can never survive the winters of Tibet and Ladakh. Historically, the PLA sends Chinese soldiers back to mainland China from November to April every year, leaving only locally recruited Border Defence Regiments and militia to patrol the LAC.

Expecting Han Chinese soldiers to stay back and survive winters, challenging a hardened Indian army, for whom such tenures are routine is almost impossible. It is for this reason that China is not desirous of dragging the current standoff into the winter. India, on the other hand is in no rush to end the standoff, unless it concludes on its own terms. It has already begun preparing for a long haul.

Another factor is that in 1962, the PLA could accept casualties, as the nation was still to push through the one-child norm, which commenced in 1979. Nor were there multiple media networks where casualty figures were demanded. The scenario is vastly different today. Each Chinese soldier, if a bachelor, has six adults, parents and grandparents, who have pampered him and would be devastated by his loss. If married, dependents only increase. Hence, China cannot accept body bags in the manner they did in the 1960s. Despite all technology and high-end weapons, common to both sides, ultimately their soldiers would need to assault Indian defences. Further, China last fought a war with Vietnam in 1979, where it was forced to withdraw in shame.

Expecting soft, inexperienced and family-dependent troops to assault a voluntary army, comprising of battle hardened, trained soldiers is asking for the moon. Releasing Kargil and Siachen videos, as part of counter-propaganda warfare, would make the Chinese realise what the current Indian army is made of. Chinese propaganda videos of exercise firing would pale in comparison to the accurate Indian firing during the Kargil war against the heights occupied by Pakistani troops.

The major problem in the ongoing propaganda game is that global social media sites are banned in China and their own are difficult to penetrate. Obtaining a gateway into these sites and pushing forth Indian forces’ capability could impact morale of Chinese public and forces, which are currently being fed one-sided inputs. This avenue must be explored and exploited.

Within India, many are influenced by writings in Chinese statecontrolled media, which project topics determined by their CCP. On the other hand, India has no formal organisation to counter propaganda projected by the Chinese. Unless this is done, Indians would never realise the truth and continue being influenced.

The Indian army, which has encountered Chinese soldiers through the years is aware of the soft Chinese soldier and hence is prepared to maintain its presence in difficult terrain through winters. The army also knows its capabilities and ability of its forces to withstand Chinese assaults.

The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.

[ya]

Gordon Chang ...Chinese army has flopped, what China will do next.

https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-army-flops-india-what-will-xi-do-next-opinion-1531170?amp=1

[ya]

An important read, see link if you want to see maps.https://www.gunnersshot.com/2020/09/sino-indian-logjam-facts-risks-options.html?m=1

SINO INDIAN LOGJAM : FACTS, RISKS, OPTIONS AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS By Lt Gen P R Shankar (R)

Battle Indicators.‘ Global Times’ videos indicate that PLA is rehearsing for an offensive. Air Defence drills around Lhasa.  Fibre optic cables being laid  in Spangur. Early battle indicators. The real indicator will be dumping Artillery ammunition and build up. When that happens - real business  is afoot. Till then relax or chew your nails.  Notwithstanding, since the Chinese are chafing to teach us a lesson. So what is in the offing? 

Hardening Defences. Indian Infantry has dug in at the heights since two weeks. The defences are hardening and getting coordinated. It means overhead protection,  stocking and obstacle laying. A defensive fire plan is evolving with IAF, Artillery, Tanks and Infantry Mortars in the mix. Selected  and surveyed targets would be Chinese assembly areas, routes of ingress, forming up places(FUP) for assault, enemy gun areas, hqs and more. Suffice to say that the Chinese will get a hell of a whack. The Chinese have focussed on mechanisation by rote. That is contained in their White Paper as a doctrine. They did not realise that High Altitude warfare is vastly different. Why? Simple. Difference between political and professional armies.  I hope that ‘Global Times’ editor is around to photograph hilarious Chinese sergeant majors blowing whistles and trumpets to commence ferocious attacks. His story will be different now – how drones used for food are being multitasked for body bag delivery. Everyone says that China will attack and teach India a lesson. Good. Let’s do some honest analysis.   

Isolation Reinforced. After Wang Yi’s visit to EU states, Germany has opted on the side of democracies in the Indo Pacific region. That  was  inevitable. Indonesia refused to provide any bases for the Chinese. They are now objecting to Chinese transgressions in the Natuna Seas. The spat with Australia is worsening. India and Japan have signed a defence pact. The Taiwanese have warned that any more violation of their airspace will invite retaliatory action. There are reports which say that a Sino-US armed conflict is getting more real. China is more isolated than ever. Internally , Inner Mongolia continues to fester. Tibet is getting revived. Xinjiang issue is on the verge of revival. India can help both along. Hong Kong is not out of the news. The right time to ramp up the conflict with another Nuclear Power? Great Chinese strategic thinking.   

Lebensraum and Persecuted Victimhood.   Before Nazi offensives and pogroms, Hitler sold the ‘Lebensraum Dream’ and the ‘Persecuted Victimhood Complex’ to Germany. Something similar is happening in China. Initially  Xi Jinping  sold the ‘China Dream’,  pronounced a period of great strategic opportunity and started building the greatest military on earth.  He  brainwashed Chinese that the CCP way was the best during  the Wuhan Virus crisis. Pogroms  against the Uighurs are well documented. He has spoken of solidifying Tibet security and communising religion. Wayward  Hong Kongers are brought in line. He  pronounces that China will follow the Communist economic model come what may. He popularises himself  with people by visiting them during floods.  He is invoking people to overcome hardships due to denial of technologies - imported seeds for agriculture,  critical components in manufacturing, dependence on oil imports, distribution of water resources and pharmaceuticals and medical equipment for an ageing population. The position of the CCP inside China is being constantly consolidated. The emerging picture - ‘Persecuted Victimhood Complex’ of China  being denied and pushed into a corner by a disintegrating and inimically jealous world. External picture.  China is ordained to rule the world. Only China can win - at any cost. Every one falls in line. Political, economic, diplomatic or military coercion works, always and every time. China will expand based on some mythological irredentism. ‘Aggressive Lebensraum’. The world, ravaged by the Virus from China is being herded into a corner to establish Chinese supremacy. Everything is Xi  centric to  rule the world. A bipolarity  is emerging. Internal portrayal of being unfairly cornered and an external reality of coercively cornering everyone.  Such a diabolic schism was last seen in Hitler’s Germany. Nitin Gokhale was right. The transformation to Xitler is complete. We should know who we are dealing with. “The Man Who Would Be King”  not by Rudyard Kipling!

Xitlerian Concept. In the Xitlerian concept, India has no right to defend itself. It must subjugate itself to the lord and emperor of the great Chinese people. If not, be prepared for punishment.  The great PLA will defend every inch of Chinese territory recently usurped from India by attacking and punishing India for India asking vacation of its territory. The Idea is to take what it wants. Force an unequal peace. Afterall, China is the greatest. Are there risks and options in this new one sided game?

Risks. There are four risks in this attempt to teach India a lesson. Firstly. With the available troops India cannot be taught a lesson. The fight will be long, hard and bloody. Everything will be at a cost. That cost will be collected by USA in the South China Sea who will not miss the opportunity. A firefight starts there. Taiwan could declare Independence. End of superpower China. Secondly, after the bloody battle, even if India is defeated, the long guerrilla campaign will start. Tibet and Xinjiang will be in flames. Srinagar Valley is only 15948 sq km. Tibet is 1.22 million sq km and Xinjiang is 1.6 million sq km. See the difference?  China, of the nose bloodied, will have to commit a lot more of PLA to handle the situation on a real long term basis. Its entire global plans go for a toss. Thirdly, there are very good chances that China will be taught a lesson. In fact I am sure of it. If they start a shooting match and India finishes it, the next stop could be Rudok. That will automatically put Tibet and Xinjiang on flame. Fourthly. What happens if China cannot force victory? The saga of defeat continues. Pakistan has the best Army never to have won a war. China will compete for that honour with its rusty iron brother. Whichever  way it goes, China’s dream will evaporate. Guaranteed. Risk a war? Go ahead China.  BTW. When does the Nuclear factor  kick in?

Options. China  is reinforcing Eastern Ladakh with additional troops. The area can hold that many troops only. Any further increase  will diminish returns. Secondly, mountains are good for defenders. It is difficult  to dislodge entrenched defenders unless there are repeated headlong attacks. China has to also decide where to attack. North of Pangong Tso or South of it. (see picture) North of Pangong Tso offers some scope for employment of armour in the Depsang Plains. However it is a shooting match without manoeuvre space. There is a fair bit of mountainous area North of Pangong Tso also. India can play some tricks, infiltrate and reverse the situation.  While it may be  feasible to get hold of some territory there is a good chance of losing it too for the Chinese.  The key to the whole affair will be the Chusul Gateway , South of Pangong Tso. Can China dislodge us from the strategically important Kailash Range? In an area devoid of cover and a single avenue of approach the attacker is exposed (see picture – 3d view of area beyond Spangur). Headbutting will be very costly. Results will be minimal. Of course, China can expand into other sectors further South. In which case its commitment and imbalance will expand. It  will slowly be sucked in and stretched to a point when a counter offensive will happen. Where? Has to be decided between USA and India. The short point is that China is already in a trap of its own making. So far China has used Sun Tsu’s maxim of winning wars without fighting. This is one war they will have to fight to win but will lose. Want to be a superpower? Bleed a little on the battlefield.

Own Option. What should we do? Hold tight. Till winter sets in maintain a low profile. Stay vigilant. Do not get complacent. The enemy is desperate. Do some talking. Stall for time. Play the Chinese game. Two steps forward and no step back - on ground. Once winter sets in, start harassing the Chinese in the rear and spook them in the front. Imbalances and opportunities will surface. It is the first high altitude winter for his mainline force. He will suffer environmental casualties. His morale will be low. his troops will suffer disorientation. Rub it in.  Incremental actions to attain tactical and strategic significance or opening up offensive options will be of great value. Create small criticalities. Change 'Status quo' in baby steps. No Hurry. Patience. Vigilance. Go for the kill. A discredited PLA will do greater damage to China.  'Soft' frontline PLA troops should be targeted. They are our 'Centre of Gravity'. Up front within reach. Mountains offer great manoeuvre space. Develop offensive options. Beyond the Kailash range there are no great obstacles or ridge lines till Rudok and the Western Highway. The Pangong Tso gives a secure flank. At some point we must go on the counter offensive. We need to generate some options to force a recoil. I might sound outlandish. However think coolly. We have their measure. Occupation of the Kailash range has opened up options. Hats off guys. Well done.

Story of India. I need to tell a story. Summer  of 99. Op Vijay broke out.  My regiment (all Rajputs ) was mobilised overnight from the Eastern to the Northern sector. A number of young soldiers on completion of post  recruit training were posted to make good our strengths. All of them reported to Siliguri. Around a dozen of them with a couple of NCOs, retuning from leave, were despatched to join the regiment in the staging area.  War rumours were abound. At Delhi railway station, two young soldiers (from neighbouring villages) gave the slip and went AWOL. They went home and told their mothers that they came on leave. One of the mothers suspected something unusual and quizzed her son. Out came the  AWOL story. She gave him a couple of tight slaps, took him to the other village and told the other boy’s mother about it. She in turn slapped her son. How could they become AWOL from the regiment when the nation was at war? One village elder was entrusted to deposit these young soldiers with the unit. He brought them to me and said “ CO sahab inko maaf  kar dena. In dono ka mathaon ne inke saath bahut gussa kiya.  Rajputon ka be-izzati ho gaya. Desh ka Raksha karna hamara kartavya hai.  Bcahhe hain. Inko asli Rajput banao aur ladai mein sabse aage le jao.”  That was that and life went on. When I last visited the unit those ‘boys’ are now experienced and tough gunners and junior leaders.

The Sum of All Fears. Indian mothers will send their sons to war as a matter of IZZAT and desh ka Raksha irrespective of caste, creed, Arm or unit. Phillip Mason called it a ‘Matter of Honour’. This spirit of sacrifice is deeply ingrained in Indian blood streams even now. It was on display in Galwan. A country which has such deep rooted patriotism cannot be defeated by some soft ‘one child Chinese’. Why am I recounting this story? Have faith in our men they will deliver. The sum of all my fears is that some weak bellied and ill-informed politician or diplomat will develop cold feet and fritter away the gains during negotiation. That is our history. We felt diplomacy and international stature will guard the Sino Indian border in 1962.  We gave back Haji Pir in 1965. We gave back 93000 prisoners in 1971. We even went about saving Chinese ‘face’ during Doklam despite stopping them in their tracks. How wrong were we? Totally. There is a palpable fear swirling around that some jittery character will give away everything we have gained by blood sweat and tears.  ‘Status Quo Ante’ of April has lost value. The Kailash Range should not be traded at any cost. It is ‘off table’ in all negotiations. We need to look at a new status post ante. That could be Northwards into Aksai Chin! Stay tight. This is a defining fight for India. There is more on the cards. The Chinese need a lesson and we will give it to them. Rub their ‘face’ in.

Paki Preoccupation. Where are the Pakis? Aah! Paki Generals…lost half their country. Partnering with them , The USA lost its war on terror. Their advice cost the Saudis two oilfields. They are now advising Chinese.  Any guesses…..? ha ha.  Well these deep state worthies  of the frontline nation  are at their frontline at Papa John’s having a board meeting of their remunerative businesses with Dawood as special consultant. What is on their menu? Chinese! What about war fighting? That is for idiots.

[Crafty_Dog]

A Military Drive Spells Out China's Intent Along the Indian Border
Stratfor
5 MINS READ
Sep 22, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

China's intensified development of military infrastructure on the Indian border suggests a shift in Beijing's approach to territorial disputes, forcing New Delhi to rethink its national security posture. China is expanding and upgrading a large number of military facilities along its entire border with India as tensions continue to run high in the wake of the bloody clash between Indian and Chinese forces in June, followed by the reported exchange of gunfire in late August. New Delhi has struggled to come to terms with these recent escalations, but the new strategic reality created by Beijing's permanent infrastructure drive will nonetheless force New Delhi to shape its future defense posture around long-term outlooks of China's growing capabilities in its border regions.

China's construction drive projects a future military capability that will see long-term regional tensions with India sustained beyond the two countries' recent standoffs. The 2017 Doklam crisis appears to have shifted China's strategic objectives, with China more than doubling its total number of air bases, air defense positions, and heliports near the Indian border over the past three years. The rapid expansion of permanent Chinese military infrastructure points to intentions that span a wider timeframe than current and recent border standoffs.

Indian and Chinese forces clashed in the Doklam region in June 2017. Since then, China has started constructing at least 13 entirely new military positions near its borders with India, including three air bases, five permanent air defense positions and five heliports. Construction on four of those new heliports started only after the onset of the current Ladakh crisis in May.
These long-term developments rise above the more immediate deployments that China conducted in its previous border standoffs with India, and indicates future intent to ramp up Chinese assertive military posturing in border disputes with India.
China's strategy aims to confront India with an insurmountable challenge in territorial disputes by leaning on broad support capabilities that provide Beijing with a tremendous ability to mobilize forces into disputed border areas. Such an approach is similar to China's strategy in the South China Sea, where a buildup of permanent defense facilities supports Chinese localized military superiority and significantly raises the potential cost of military opposition to Beijing's maritime claims in the region. In applying this same strategy on the Indian border, China aims to discourage Indian resistance or military action during future border disputes by ostentatiously demonstrating its ability and intent to engage in military confrontations.

China's current emphasis on air power, in particular, also enables it to project military strength deep into the complex Himalayan terrain by exploiting existing gaps in India's capabilities. A significant portion of Beijing's recent infrastructure developments is aimed directly at strengthening its ability to project air power along the entire Indian border at a time when New Delhi itself is struggling to rebuild its air power. Additional air bases, runways and air defense sites would all help China achieve air superiority over disputed areas in future conflicts, as well as provide cover to ground movements to stake actual territorial claims.
The Chinese military is currently building four similar air defense positions within existing air bases and other facilities. This includes additional runways, as well as aircraft shelters that will help obscure the true presence of combat aircraft at these bases from observation. In addition to the development of infrastructure, China has also been deploying more air defense systems and fighter aircraft to existing facilities.

India, meanwhile, has faced repeated setbacks in its attempts to modernize its aging fighter fleet. Recent deliveries of French Rafale fighter aircraft have started to provide India some relief, but more time will be required to see indigenous production and foreign acquisitions truly rebuild the strength of India's air force.

By forcing India to respond in kind, China's aggressive strategy is leading to a greater concentration of military assets in heavily disputed areas along the border that could raise the risk of potential escalations and sustained conflict. The ongoing escalation in the Ladakh border region has started to formulate an Indian response to the broader strategic threat posed by China's ongoing military infrastructure drive. India's Ministry of Defense announced on Sept. 14 that it will build six new runways and 22 military helicopter facilities across Ladakh. While these new developments are geographically focused on the region of current tensions, Chinese activity across India's entire border will likely drive future expansions of Indian military infrastructure near disputed borders at Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. New Delhi will also continue to upgrade its overall military capabilities, particularly in those fields where capability gaps exist vis-a-vis China, such as air power, ground-based air defenses and missile forces. Efforts by both India and China to translate these capabilities into dominance during future border disputes will increase the possibility of direct confrontations. And with strong logistical structures supporting frontline forces on both sides, such incidents could rapidly devolve into greater military engagements between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

[ccp]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-regime-weaponizes-tibets-rivers-choking-asias-water-supply-expert_3501234.html

got sample of Epoch Times via print

this article I thought interesting

seems like this news outlet might be good source of conservative news.

[Crafty_Dog]

I subscribe online for something like $3 a month.  Definitely recommended!

[ya]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/09/25/commentary/world-commentary/china-paying-high-price-provoking-india/

NEW DELHI – China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, recently declared that aggression and expansionism have never been in the Chinese nation’s “genes.” It is almost astonishing that he managed to say it with a straight face.

Aggression and expansionism obviously are not genetic traits, but they appear to be defining President Xi Jinping’s tenure. Xi, who in some ways has taken up the expansionist mantle of Mao Zedong, is attempting to implement a modern version of the tributary system that Chinese emperors used to establish authority over vassal states: Submit to the emperor, and reap the benefits of peace and trade with the empire.

For Xi, the COVID-19 pandemic — which has preoccupied the world’s governments for months — seemed like an ideal opportunity to make quick progress on his agenda. So, in April and May, he directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to launch furtive incursions into the icy borderlands of India’s Ladakh region, where it proceeded to establish heavily fortified encampments.

It wasn’t nearly as clever a plan as Xi probably thought. Far from entrenching China’s regional preeminence, it has intensified the pushback by Indo-Pacific powers, which have deepened their security cooperation. This includes China’s most powerful competitor, the United States, thereby escalating a bilateral strategic confrontation that has technological, economic, diplomatic, and military dimensions. The specter of international isolation and supply disruptions now looms over China, spurring Xi to announce plans to hoard mammoth quantities of mineral resources and agricultural products.

But Xi’s real miscalculation on the Himalayan border was vis-a-vis India, which has now abandoned its appeasement policy toward China. Not surprisingly, China remains committed to the PLA’s incursions, which it continues to portray as defensive: Late last month, Xi told senior officials to “solidify border defenses” and “ensure frontier security” in the Himalayan region.

India, however, is ready to fight. In June, after the PLA ambushed and killed Indian soldiers patrolling Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, a hand-to-hand confrontation led to the deaths of numerous Chinese troops — the first PLA troops killed in action outside United Nations peacekeeping operations in over four decades. Xi was so embarrassed by this outcome that, whereas India honored its 20 fallen as martyrs, China refuses to admit the precise death toll.

The truth is that, without the element of surprise, China is not equipped to dominate India in a military confrontation. And India is making sure that it will not be caught off guard again. It has now matched Chinese military deployments along the Himalayan frontier and activated its entire logistics network to transport the supplies needed to sustain the troops and equipment through the coming harsh winter.

In another blow to China, Indian special forces recently occupied strategic mountain positions overlooking key Chinese deployments on the southern side of Pangong Lake. Unlike the PLA, which prefers to encroach on undefended border areas, Indian forces carried out their operation right under China’s nose, in the midst of a major PLA buildup.

If that were not humiliating enough for China, India eagerly noted that the Special Frontier Force (SFF) that spearheaded the operation comprises Tibetan refugees. The Tibetan soldier who was killed by a landmine in the operation was honored with a well-attended military funeral.

India’s message was clear: China’s claims to Tibet, which separated India and China until Mao Zedong’s regime annexed it in 1951, are not nearly as strong as it pretends they are. Tibetans view China as a brutally repressive occupying power, and those eager to fight the occupiers flocked to the SFF, established after Mao’s 1962 war with India.

Here’s the rub: China’s claims to India’s vast Himalayan borderlands are based on their alleged historical links to Tibet. If China is merely occupying Tibet, how can it claim sovereignty over those borderlands?

In any case, Xi’s latest effort to gain control of territories that aren’t China’s to take has proved far more difficult to complete than it was to launch. As China’s actions in the South China Sea demonstrate, Xi prefers asymmetrical or hybrid warfare, which combines conventional and irregular tactics with psychological and media manipulation, disinformation, lawfare, and coercive diplomacy.

But while Xi managed to change the South China Sea’s geopolitical map without firing a shot, it seems clear that this will not work on China’s Himalayan border. Instead, Xi’s approach has placed the Sino-Indian relationship — crucial to regional stability — on a knife edge. Xi wants neither to back down nor to wage an open war, which is unlikely to yield the decisive victory he needs to restore his reputation after the border debacle.

China might have the world’s largest active-duty military force, but India’s is also massive. More important, India’s battle-hardened forces have experience in low-intensity conflicts at high altitudes; the PLA, by contrast, has had no combat experience since its disastrous 1979 invasion of Vietnam. Given this, a Sino-Indian war in the Himalayas would probably end in a stalemate, with both sides suffering heavy losses.

Xi seems to be hoping that he can simply wear India down. At a time when the Indian economy has registered its worst-ever contraction due to the still-escalating COVID-19 crisis, Xi has forced India to divert an increasing share of resources to national defense. Meanwhile, cease-fire violations by Pakistan, China’s close ally, have increased to a record high, raising the specter of a two-front war for India. As some Chinese military analysts have suggested, Xi could use America’s preoccupation with its coming presidential election to carry out a quick, localized strike against India without seeking to start a war.

But it seems less likely that India will wilt under Chinese pressure than that Xi will leave behind a legacy of costly blunders. With his Himalayan misadventure, he has provoked a powerful adversary and boxed himself into a corner.

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including “Asian Juggernaut,” “Water: Asia’s New Battleground” and “Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.” © Project Syndicate, 2020.

[ya]

Imran Khan, baki PM passes an eye test.

[ya]

A good overview map of the region

[ya]

Nice overview of the Chinese claim lines in Ladakh.

https://youtu.be/l5kgfqQqVUk

[Crafty_Dog]

China Moves to Freeze Its Border Dispute With India Before the Winter Does
3 MINS READ
Oct 9, 2020 | 18:52 GMT

China’s recent reassertion of its 1959 border line with India has left little room for a compromise in the two countries’ territorial dispute in Ladakh ahead of the approaching harsh winter, which will enable Beijing to both reinforce its claims in the Himalayan region come spring, as well as test Indian resolve with actions at other areas along the border. In late September, the Chinese Foreign Ministry sent a statement to the Hindustan Times confirming it still recognizes its unilateral 1959 line along the Indian border as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which was drawn before the two countries’ war in 1962. Military officials from the two sides are set to meet Oct. 12 for the seventh round of Corps Commander talks aimed at resolving the border standoff in the eastern section of Ladakh, but China’s reassertion of the 1959 line makes any resolution difficult before the winter season sets in a month.

Though China has hinted at the 1959 line in recent years, this marks one of the clearest assertions of Beijing’s claim.
India asserts it has never recognized China’s 1959 unilateral border claim, and efforts in recent years to exchange maps to reassess claims have fallen through.

The most likely path in the near term is limited disengagement along the frontier, but there will not be a major withdrawal by Chinese or Indian forces. In addition to reinforcing their frontline forces in the western section, both countries continued infrastructure construction in the area, and there are reports Chinese forces have also moved in equipment to provide shelter and medical care for their forces through the winter. India has demanded that Chinese forces withdraw from newly-occupied territory, to which China has retorted by demanding that Indian forces first leave the high ground they have taken up in response to Chinese forward forces.

In a five-point joint statement between their foreign ministers, who met in Moscow in early September, India and China agreed that they did not want to see tensions escalate further and agreed that their forces should disengage along the disputed border.

While there is room for further de-escalation, there appears little trust or interest by either side to make any major withdrawal, for fear the other side moves first in the spring to occupy disputed territory.

With a dozen areas along the LAC in dispute, China is likely to press its sovereignty claims in different sectors come the new year. China has increased attention to its claims of national territory, whether at sea or on land, and is unlikely to back down along the Indian frontier. Even as China has pulled some forces back from their furthest extensions this year, it has maintained and reinforced positions in formerly unoccupied territory just a little ways back from its furthest forward positions. There are 12 main areas of dispute along the LAC, but only half of them have seen flare-ups in recent years. If China follows its pattern from the South China Sea, it will de-escalate in one area, only to step up pressure along another front.

In 2017, the two sides clashed further south and east, at the Doklam Plateau near Bhutan. There are concerns that the next confrontations may take place even further east, near Arunachal Pradesh.

With Arunachal Pradesh in the east administered by India but claimed by China, and Aksai Chin in the east administered by China but claimed by India, there is the possibility that China will later offer some concessions in the east in return for its forward claims in the west, though any significant territorial adjustments will be politically untenable in India.

[ya]

Stand-off now 6 months old. Chinese soldiers live in oxygen enriched barracks, while Indian soldiers rough it out. Is that a good idea ?, Chinese think Yes, India No.

https://youtu.be/YUrte_1hLM0

[ya]

India test-fires 10 missiles in 35 days. A message is being sent to China. China knows it cannot win a conventional war in the mountains. China thinks it has an edge because if the balloon goes up, they can use their superiority in missiles to cow down India. India is messaging that may be another wrong assumption on their part. Problem with missiles is you never know is it a regular or a nuclear tipped missile heading your way.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-races-to-upgrade-its-armoury-fires-a-missile-every-4-days/story-UB5RQaMY4zVlTlYbNFR8EL.html

[DougMacG]

Stand-off now 6 months old. Chinese soldiers live in oxygen enriched barracks, while Indian soldiers rough it out. Is that a good idea ?, Chinese think Yes, India No.

https://youtu.be/YUrte_1hLM0

Bud Grant: no heaters on the sidelines at -20.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/nfl-live/afc-nfc-wild-card/bud-grant

I would think the middle of a battle would be the wrong time to get acclimated.

[ya]

Watch this 14 second video of a young kid saluting Indian soldiers from Ladakh, India. With a populace like this, the morale of the soldiers remains very high. Compare that with the situation of Chinese soldiers in hostile Tibet.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1315135255041302529

[ya]

https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/ladakh-on-a-hair-trigger-1731953-2020-10-15

" “Restoration of status quo ante is no longer beneficial to us,” says an Army official. “[Talks] should now [decide] the settlement of the international boundary.”

India had started out requesting China to go back to their April 2020 positions, since then, Chinese got more aggressive, India occupied the heights and now the tables are turned...YA

[ya]

https://stratnewsglobal.com/ladakh-standoff-india-negotiating-on-equal-terms-with-outfoxed-china/

Ladakh Standoff: India Negotiating On Equal Terms With Outfoxed China
Nitin A. Gokhale October 23, 2020 6minutes read

LEH, LADAKH: There is a military stalemate along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. And China doesn’t like it.

After nearly six months of attempted military coercion, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been unable to force the Indian military to succumb or retreat. Instead, China finds itself in a cul-de-sac. This was not how it was planned in the Central Military Commission (CMC).

As a result of the impasse, in the last two meetings at the level of Corps Commanders, there is distinct change in the Chinese attitude during discussions. The Chinese now desire to resolve the standoff as soon as possible, informed sources reveal.

What prompted the change of tune? At least three reasons are being attributed by military professionals involved in planning and executing operations on ground. One, India’s swift response and matching deployment along all the friction points in Eastern Ladakh in the first fortnight of May; two, the clash at Galwan on June 15 in which India lost 20 soldiers but China suffered a larger number of casualties and three, India’s simultaneous move to occupy strategic heights along the Kailash range in Chushul and the forbidding peaks above the Finger 4 ridge line on the north bank of Pangong Tso.

When PLA moved two of its mechanised divisions close to the LAC in early May in areas it had not deployed for decades, it certainly took the Indian Army by surprise. The quantum of Chinese forces—who moved from their annual exercise mode in Aksai Chin to an operational deployment within a short span—gave the PLA the first-mover advantage. What it had not anticipated, however, was the quick response by the Indian Army backed up by the Indian Air Force (IAF), matching deployment all along the Eastern Ladakh frontier.

In less than four days of detecting the Chinese movement, additional forces were brought in even as the existing troops stopped the Chinese ingress at various points such as PP 14, Galwan, Hot Springs and PP-17 A. The Chinese attempt to shift the LAC westward was halted in its tracks in less than a week. Only in the area between Finger 4 and Finger 8, the PLA troops managed to plonk themselves along the narrow banks of Pangong Tso. As the standoff entered its second month, tensions mounted and the violent clash at Galwan ensued. However, it was the fierce fightback by soldiers belonging to 16 Bihar, 3 Punjab and 3 Medium battalions that took the Chinese by utter surprise. The bloody encounter was the last thing that the PLA expected.

However, three distinct military actions in the last week of August that negated the advantage the Chinese had thought they had gained in surprising the Indians in early May. First, an excellent tactical ISR put in place on the southern bank of Pangong Tso enabled the Indian forces to race to the top of the peaks in the Chushul sector the moment the PLA showed an aggressive intent. In a lightning move, well-poised and fit Indian troops raced to the top to occupy tactically important peaks such as Magar Hill, Gurung Hill, Rezang La, Rechin La and Mukhpari, outmanoeuvring the Chinese on the southern bank of Pangong Tso (see map). These positions give clear line of sight into the Moldo Garrison of the PLA across the LAC. This was on the night of August 29.



The next day, after a quick clearance from Delhi, Indian Army’s Northern Command also deployed T-72 tanks on some of the above mentioned peaks, once again catching the Chinese unawares. Of course, in the next few days, the PLA also moved tanks close to Indian positions in this sector. Now, in what must be a first anywhere in the world, tanks from both sides are some 400 metres apart at an altitude of 16,000-plus feet, ranged against each other, their barrels facing backwards.

Almost simultaneously with the action on August 29-30, in an operation that must surely have shaken the confidence of PLA soldiers, Indian infantry troops stealthily moved towards the higher reaches of the ridgeline known as Finger 4 from a route that is not visible from the shores of Pangong Tso. As is well known by now, the PLA had pitched tents on the banks as well as on the gentle slopes on the Finger 4 ridgeline. Indian troops climbed the peak of Finger 4 from an unused, a tougher route behind the mountain that is not visible from the shore of the lake, descended on the Chinese positions from the top to take the PLA completely by surprise. All the advantage that the Chinese thought they had gained was nullified in one go, since in the mountains, whoever occupies higher ground straightaway has the edge.

Since then, the Chinese have shown eagerness to de-escalate and disengage. In the last meeting of the Corps Commanders on October 12, the Chinese put forward a couple of proposals and so did the Indians. Details are confidential but indications are that the Chinese have gone to the extent of indicating that they do not mind restoring status quo ante at the Finger area (moving back to Finger on the north bank of Pangong Tso provided India scales down its presence on the heights of Kailash range, something that India is unwilling to do so. Instead, India has proposed a sequential process which can be verified and validated at each step before moving to the final stage of de-induction of troops. India has told China it started the standoff by violating protocols on the border so only the principle of ‘first in, first out’ is applicable here. That is, the PLA must start the process of withdrawal before India can.

The next round of Corps Commanders talks is likely to happen soon. Going by the last joint statement, both sides are willing to work for a solution but India is now negotiating on equal terms, thanks to the military moves in late August.

[ya]

Today is Dussehra a major festival in Hindu India. It symbolizes the winning of good over evil, Lord Rama killing the rakshasa Ravana. Particularly symbolic wrt to China.

India does not have the 2nd Amendment, but weapons worship has a long tradition (Indian defense minister below) on this day. My family worshipped a single bolt rifle! that we had.

[G M]

"India does not have the 2nd Amendment"

You guys need to fix that.

Today is Dussehra a major festival in Hindu India. It symbolizes the winning of good over evil, Lord Rama killing the rakshasa Ravana. Particularly symbolic wrt to China.

India does not have the 2nd Amendment, but weapons worship has a long tradition (Indian defense minister below) on this day. My family worshipped a single bolt rifle! that we had.

[ya]

On Dussehra day, Indian NSA Ajit Doval (superstar NSA) who rarely speaks in public warns China in a short but brilliant speech, Defense Minister also speaks about China and interestingly the head of RSS (a hindu right wing org) speak about the threat and response to China.  Two of these are cabinet level people in Modi govt and the third is like a ideological guide for Modi. The ask is for China to withdraw. This somehow reminds me about the US Fed's governors who all come out and speak on the same topic!. The crisis is 6 months old...to save face China needs a small skirmish, before they can withdraw with dignity, but not without a bloody nose.

[ya]

Thanks to China, India invites Australia to the QUAD group and Malabar exercises. Today India signed the BECA agreement with USA. It provides transfer of detailed satellite information. This would not have happened without China's aggression, as India had resisted these for a decade.

China canceled the 8th round of talks with India, great outcome.

[Crafty_Dog]

October 28, 2020
   

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Brief: India Strengthens Its Grip in Peripheral Regions
Under the changes, any Indian, not just permanent residents, can purchase land in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Background: One of India’s strategic challenges is that it governs a large area with extremely diverse inhabitants. The current government has tried to meet this challenge by implementing measures aimed at centralizing administrative and economic power. Peripheral regions like Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh in the distant northwest are particularly worrisome for New Delhi, as neighboring Pakistan and China contest India’s control over the regions as well as their territorial boundaries.

What Happened: India’s Ministry of Home Affairs changed a series of land laws that affect property ownership in Jammu and Kashmir as well as Ladakh. Under the changes, any Indian, not just permanent residents, can purchase land in the territories. This builds on August 2019’s changes, when the government repealed Article 370 and Article 35-A of the constitution, essentially giving the central government more control in the region. The changes require states and so-called union territories to establish real estate regulators and provide rules under which these regulators must operate. They also give the army the power to declare strategic land for operational and training purposes in the area. Longtime residents of Kashmir oppose the changes, saying they were done without coordination with the local population and that they put their property rights and culture at risk.

Bottom Line: Last year’s constitutional changes paved the way for greater central control on paper, while these latest moves show concrete steps. Hindus and other Indians will now have the opportunity to expand their influence in these areas, which have the highest concentrations of Muslims in India. This comes as India and China are facing off along their border in Ladakh and as Pakistan continues to call for India to have less control over Jammu and Kashmir. The changes also clear the way for the central government to pursue its goal of greater national integration by economically developing these areas.

[G M]

Thanks to China, India invites Australia to the QUAD group and Malabar exercises. Today India signed the BECA agreement with USA. It provides transfer of detailed satellite information. This would not have happened without China's aggression, as India had resisted these for a decade.

China canceled the 8th round of talks with India, great outcome.

The BECA agreement is a Big DEAL! YuuuUUUge!

[ya]

I am still struggling to understand what did China gain by their actions. Looks like a huge miscalculation on their part.

- India lost 20 lives, China likely around 40
- China occupied a few non-strategic heights and gained a few km, India occupied several heights, such that they have a tactical and strategic advantage.
- Over a 100 Chinese apps banned in India
- China lost several major infrastructure contracts
- Chinese investments in India are on hold, Indian public is not buying Chinese products
- India expedited border infrastructure development
- Billions of new weapons purchases done, or orders given. Traditionally, India does not spend much on the military.
- Australia invited to the QUAD grouping, military base sharing agreements with Australia
- India signed BECA the last foundational agreement, the whole process took several decades.


Militarily India and China are at a stalemate. They could not bring India to heel, the neighboring countries, incl. Pak are watching. Certainly, China is not looking like a super power, more like an aggressive thug who has not gotten his way. I am sure Pak is not impressed.

At a suitable time, India should drop the 1 China policy...

[ya]

Today it is Diwali, the Festival of Lights, the main  festival of hindus all over the world. Its now about 8 months of the China-India border stand off. No trust on either side, which complicates stand down. Pak still playing games, the LOC is very hot. Modi visited the front lines and spend Diwali with the soldiers and boosted their morale. Modi master of mind game optics and subliminal messages below