Author Topic: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)  (Read 160248 times)

ccp

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #650 on: September 09, 2023, 12:15:42 PM »
wow

Ya, do you think India Pakistan union is possible?

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #651 on: September 09, 2023, 05:08:29 PM »
Not Pak, but Gilgit Baltistan loosely called Pak Occupied Kashmir (POK), which is Indian Territory per the Constitution of India and India has a strong legal basis for it. Since independence, the Parliament has empty seats for representatives from POK. Gilgit and Baltistan are the major areas that are being contested

.

These are Shia areas. There is a small sliver of land near Muzaffarabad so called Azad Kashmir or Free Kashmir (seen on the map, left middle side), that is Sunni and India has no interest in it, though the people from there too are protesting to join India as the 3 areas Gilgit, Baltistan and Azad Kashmir comprise POK. The map also shows Aksai Chin that China has occupied and adjacent to it is territory that Pak ceded to China, which is also Indian territory per legal documents.

To understand India's historical civilizational ties with Afghanistan, Balochistan, Tibet etc, You may want to read about Akhand Bharat (separate issue), which shows the old Indian territories, from not too long ago.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2023, 05:12:56 PM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #652 on: September 10, 2023, 03:34:32 AM »
That was clarifying.

Thank you.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #653 on: September 10, 2023, 06:48:49 AM »
G20 had the Japanese PM's wife dress in Indian clothes.



Rishi Sunak, PM of UK and wife going all into Hinduism mode

IMF Pres. Giorgina C (sp ?) showing Indian dance moves.

I am seeing a move away from China.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #654 on: September 10, 2023, 11:10:41 AM »
Somehow different from when Fidel's son from Canada did it.

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: India-Europe Corridor
« Reply #655 on: September 14, 2023, 03:21:54 PM »


September 13, 2023
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The Viability of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
The ambitious new connectivity project will likely run aground in the Arabian Peninsula.
By: Kamran Bokhari

We live in an age of interregional connections. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, after a decade and hundreds of billions of dollars in spending, has faced significant setbacks but remains the most prominent example. Attempts to develop the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, have gained momentum since Russia invaded Ukraine, spurring other countries to seek ways to bypass Russian territory for east-west commerce and to reduce dependency on Russian hydrocarbons. The latest connectivity corridor emerged last weekend at the G20 summit, during which the United States, India, Saudi Arabia and others signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a network of maritime and rail routes connecting the Indian subcontinent with Europe via the Middle East.

Details are scarce, but the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor will consist of rail lines and seaports linking India and Europe across the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. In addition to reducing transit times for goods, the IMEC project is expected to include infrastructure for the production and transport of green hydrogen and an undersea cable to enhance telecommunications and data transfers. The most interesting aspect of the corridor came from the U.S. deputy national security adviser, who said it was not just an infrastructure project but was informed by a U.S. strategy of “turning the temperature down” in the Middle East, which historically has been a “net exporter of turbulence and insecurity.”

Proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor
(click to enlarge)

It appears the United States’ growing alignment with India is enabling Washington to stitch together four key landmasses – Europe, the Middle East, South Asia and East Asia – from the Atlantic to the Pacific. This resembles the British strategy during that empire’s heyday, when England saw the Middle East as a critical junction between it and its colonial possession of India. During the 19th and 20th centuries, the Arab world remained a strategic challenge for the United Kingdom. It is all the more so for the United States in the 21st century. As the most unstable element of the planned corridor, the Middle East will be the focal point.

Therefore, it is unsurprising that the envisioned corridor bypasses the major hot spots of the region, such as Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, which together comprise Iran’s sphere of influence. Additionally, the Levant, though a key piece of geopolitical real estate between the Arabian Peninsula and the European continent, is in disarray, especially after the Syrian civil war. This would also explain why Turkey, which is the landbridge between the Middle East and Europe, is not part of the corridor. Egypt is the other major exclusion, likely due to its economic problems, which are worsening despite several billions of dollars of financial assistance from the energy-rich Gulf Arab states just in the past 10 years of President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi’s rule.

The core component of the IMEC is Saudi Arabia, which under Mohammed bin Salman is experiencing a social and economic revolution. The crown prince’s ambitious Vision 2030 roadmap seeks to transform the country from a religiously ultraconservative kingdom heavily reliant on crude oil exports into a modern country with a diversified economy that is deeply integrated with the rest of the world. Saudi Arabia (together with the UAE) has increasingly close geoeconomic ties with India. Therefore, this project is very much in keeping with Riyadh’s imperatives.

However, the newly announced corridor has a major chokepoint: Jordan. Bordering Iraq, Syria and the Palestinian territory of the West Bank, the small Hashemite kingdom occupies a highly unstable strategic environment. Jordan’s infrastructure will also need serious upgrading, especially considering the country’s weak economy, which has been burdened by hosting more than a million Syrian refugees. But perhaps the most significant factor is the country’s proximity to the West Bank, where the meltdown of the Palestinian Authority and the growing number of Jewish settlements has created a precarious situation.

The corridor project also comes as the Biden administration has been pushing Saudi Arabia and Israel to establish formal ties. Washington and Riyadh have already agreed on the broad parameters of such a deal. It is in the Saudis’ interest to normalize relations with the Israelis, but they cannot do so at the cost of disregarding the Palestinian issue. In the past two weeks alone the Palestinian Authority has signaled that it is willing to settle for modest territorial concessions from Israel vis-a-vis the West Bank. Meanwhile, the Saudis are engaging the Palestinians over financial assistance.

Integrating the West Bank into the project would be a way for the Saudis to forge relations with Israel while also developing the corridor. The Palestinian territory sits between the Jordanian capital of Amman and the Israeli port city of Haifa, whence the second maritime segment of the corridor begins the journey through the Mediterranean to Eastern Europe. Of course, this would be a massive undertaking and would depend on an unlikely level of relative peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians in the West Bank. Even if the route bypasses the West Bank, growing political instability and polarization within Israel is its own risk.

As if all these Middle Eastern factors were not enough of an impediment, the European stretch of the corridor through the Western Balkans entails its own insecurity. The closest European destination from Israel is Greece, and to get to the wider continent the route goes through the Balkans.

Considering all the issues that would need to be addressed, the IMEC project will struggle to become a significant economic connectivity channel. For now, the corridor will likely be limited to the maritime route connecting India to the Gulf Arab states – a route that is still in many ways commercially vibrant.

ya

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Angry response coming?
« Reply #656 on: September 14, 2023, 06:21:15 PM »
Yesterday, India lost 3 army men (Col, Major and a senior police man) in Kashmir to terrorist action from Pak. India is up in arms. Just heard a fiery speech from Modi, saying he will make Pak pay, that he has had enough, the country has had enough. Modi is not known to speak like that. He is mad as hell. Expectations of a severe response are being raised.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2023, 06:53:41 AM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #657 on: October 01, 2023, 04:53:48 PM »
In the last few weeks the rate of assassinations of Paki terrorists to include Pak funded Khalistanis in Canada, UK and of course in Pak has shot up. They are falling like flies. Indian secret agencies and Modi is getting a lot of credit for this, but ofcourse no one knows who is responsible. The Khalistanis in Canada have interpol notices on some of them, or are declared terrorists for killing innocents, plane hijacking etc that canada has for some reason given them citizenship. This has vitiated the India-Canada atmosphere.

Based on the speeches by Modi and Indian Foreign Min, India will take a hard line from now on.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #658 on: October 01, 2023, 05:17:27 PM »
Another development...now Indian Muslims are demanding that POK be allowed to merge with India. They believe only Modi can do that. The momentum for re-unification is building...

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #659 on: October 02, 2023, 06:19:09 AM »
YA:

What do you make of the hit on the Sikh guy in Canada?

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #660 on: October 09, 2023, 06:21:25 AM »
These Khalistanis are terrorists, with a long trail of murders etc in India. Nijjar entered Canada on false pretences, using a non-Sikh name, should have never been given Canadian citizenship. They are supported by Pak's ISI. Turdeau supports them for the vote bank. It will come back to bite Canada, guaranteed. There is zero chance, they will ever get a homeland in India, their only purpose is to break harmony between hindus and sikhs in India. Modi is getting tough on these guys, their properties in India have been taken over by the govt, their visas and "green cards" to India have been cancelled.

Not clear who ordered the killing, could be the Indian govt, or a gang war. The rapid demise of multiple anti-India elements over the last few months, including Muslim and Khalistani terrorists in Pak, Canada, UK might not be a coincidence. When I see the multiple independence movements in Pak (Sindhudesh, Balochistan, Khyber belt, POK), something is happening, is being supported by someone. Oct 23 has been declared by the people of POK as the date by which Pak army must vacate POK. While I dont expect much to change on that date, it is a timepoint when the struggle will intensify as will their demand to merge with India. Indian elections are in May 2024. If Modi comes back (almost certain), things could get interesting with respect to Pak.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2023, 06:23:41 AM by ya »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #661 on: October 09, 2023, 10:40:42 AM »
Thank you.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #662 on: October 10, 2023, 04:50:36 AM »
Here's the Khalistani leader Pannu (sitting in Canada), threatning India in his strong Punjabi accent. He is a marked man.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1711709022582387189

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #663 on: October 19, 2023, 04:44:47 AM »
Oct 22 is coming. Its not on anyone's radar in the west. On this day, POK will declare independence from Pak control. While much will not change that day (apart from public agitations), it will start  the process of a public demand to merge with India. A mental switch will occur in the populace from Pak to India. It is obvious that India has decided to take back POK using a soft power approach, where the people demand to merge with India. They see it to their advantage with respect to India's advances in space (moon mission, solar mission), hospitals, education etc and no one wants to stay with Pak. In a few years India will be the 3rd largest economy in the world.

DougMacG

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #664 on: October 19, 2023, 05:30:56 AM »
ya,  I really appreciate those updates.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #665 on: October 19, 2023, 06:06:43 AM »
Yes, me too!

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #666 on: October 22, 2023, 05:10:33 PM »
So Oct 22 was celebrated as a black day in POK. In other news, Pak broke the ceasefire on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) after 3 years. the LAC represents the agreed upon border, whereas the LOC (Line of Control) is the contested border in POK.

I think China is trying to get the US embroiled in the middle  east conflict, so that the US is depleted of weapons, before it makes its move on Taiwan. If the US is out of weapons, it also means that they may not have spare capacity to supply India in case India makes a move on POK and needs weapons.! This is all speculation, but considering Pak's precarious financial condition, they would not break a ceasefire agreement without Chinese backing.

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« Last Edit: November 20, 2023, 05:40:45 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Gilgit/Baltistan (POK) residents demand to join India 2.0
« Reply #668 on: December 07, 2023, 06:06:38 PM »
Gilgit/Baltistan (POK) residents demand to join India.

https://youtu.be/8NUaenPADh4

If we look at how Bangladesh  was created (from E.Pakistan), the same playbook is playing out (it rhymes). Resident's are oppressed by Pak, no food, water, electricity, jobs nothing. Will demand to join India and India will oblige. India might even accept refugees from POK, as their number increases, India will move in. This year, India heads the G20 Presidency, so it will likely be 2025. May 2024 is elections and Modi will get a new 5 yr term. The writing is on the wall.

- Amazing amount of weapons are being purchased, missiles being fired, new subs, fighter air planes, heavy guns etc being purchased or manufactured. This cannot be all China centric. Something larger is afoot.
- Agniveer civil/military soldier recruitment scheme. 50,000 recruits per year! for a 4 year military training course, of which 1/4th get permanent military cadre and 3/4 are militarily trained civilians who can join the paramilitary forces. These will be needed if India intends to hold POK.
- Unrest rising in Pak, who knows if India is funding them ?
- Massive border infrastructure development against China, incase China makes a grab for Tawang monastery in a two front war.
- Gilgit area has a lot of Buddhist roots, Baltistan is mostly Shia. Even though Pak has tried to change demograhics (Sunnis), the base population is expected to be friendly.

Two more datapoints.
1. There is an ongoing campaign in Pak, where their leading anti-India terrorists are being killed. This may be a preparation for when India takes POK, these elements will have been eliminated.
2. While India holds 24 seats empty in the Parliament for POK representatives, this week they passed a law whereby 1 seat is reserved and will be filled by the Governor of Kashmir by a person who migrated from POK. This will ofcourse light a fire in the POK movement and has been their demand for long.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2023, 06:12:07 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #669 on: December 11, 2023, 04:12:27 AM »
Yesterday, breaking news from India. The Indian Supreme Court held that the removal of Article 370 from Indian Kashmir was valid and that Kashmir is a regular part of India.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/landmark-judgment-supreme-court-upholds-abrogation-of-article-370-says-it-was-temporary-provision/articleshow/105889393.cms

Under article 370 the money from the central govt would go to certain Congress affiliated political parties who had ruled Kashmir for decades, Kashmir had semi-independent status and Pak was able to create a lot of nuisance and terrorism. Naturally, the opposition was against removing article 370. Now after removal of art 370, there is massive development in Kashmir, terrorism has practically died down.

Corollary of this decision is that it applies to the whole of Kashmir, including POK. This ruling allows India to take back POK.

Comments from X https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/1734141418170663260
« Last Edit: December 11, 2023, 04:31:57 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #670 on: December 24, 2023, 06:03:51 AM »
Two developments of note:
1. Pak has raised the temp across the LOC. They are sending terrorists across who have now killed a few Indian soldiers and also mutilated them. Not sure whats happening, because Pak has no appetite for a war, its broke. This must be at China's prodding, why ?.

2. Yesterday supposedly Iranian drones attacked Indian tankers, in the Indian Ocean close to Indian coast. Not sure what that's about. India has friendly relations with Iran and Russia.

Added: Dec 25. What is also noteworthy is that the Govt of India has not said a peep, no condemnation of the mutilation of soldiers nothing.

- Pak army chief visits US a few days ago, soon after it unleashes terrorists in India.
- Indian defense minister and Chief of Army staff visits the front.
- Indian foreign minister in Russia during Christmas Dec 25-29. Very unusual for the FM to travel during holidays. What could be this urgent ?
- US-India relations have gone south in recent times. Biden backed out of attending India's Republic day parade (Macron steps in). The republic day parade is considered very prestigious invite in India. Furthermore US supporting Khalistani terrorist Pannu (US-Can citizen). Pannu is a well recognized terrorist and has openly said he would bomb Indian parliament in recent days.

Time to connect the dots...
« Last Edit: December 25, 2023, 08:06:08 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #671 on: January 02, 2024, 04:12:30 AM »
Biden/US puts pressure on India, on what was essentially a signed deal. In recent times, things are not going well between India and USA. The thinking in India is that the US is an unreliable partner. So now, India may buy the French engine, or build a Russian 5th Gen plane.

https://idrw.org/us-puts-additional-scrutiny-on-f-414-engine-deal-for-india/

ya

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Indian C-130 landing capbilities in the mountains
« Reply #672 on: January 08, 2024, 03:58:42 AM »
There is a video released by the Indian Air Force (IAF), thats gone viral. It shows the IAF landing a C-130 plane near the Pak border in mountainous terrain using terrain masking at night to make the big plane undetectable, without any runway lights, and the plane was full of Garud (airforce) commandos. The message is that they could land it also at Skardu in Gilgit Baltistan (POK) which is close to the border to capture the air-strip. At the very least, it shows capability to land troops near the border in an undetectable manner.

The red circle on the left is Gilgit Baltistan (POK) and the arrow marks the air strip.

« Last Edit: January 08, 2024, 07:26:58 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: India 2024 forecast
« Reply #673 on: January 11, 2024, 08:29:39 AM »


January 11, 2024
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2024 Annual Forecast: India’s Transformation
Domestic political strife threatens to impede India’s rapid ascent.
By: Kamran Bokhari


Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not provide a systematic forecast. The method, no matter how tested in the past, cannot produce one. Only a grasp of history, filtered through a forecasting method tested consistently and repeatedly, will yield a realistic forecast. We don’t look at a nation’s every issue; we focus on the issues that reveal patterns and indicate change. Thus, our forecasts will look at the past before they look at the future.

The stunning economic transformation of India over the past three decades is one of the most important and underappreciated implications of the end of the Cold War. For 44 years after its independence from Britain, India functioned as a command-style economy. Forced by a severe balance of payments crisis to turn to international financial institutions for assistance, the country embarked upon a path of economic liberalization in 1991. Over the next two decades, economic growth doubled to well over 6 percent per year, and the share of Indians living below the poverty line dropped from nearly half in the early 1990s to 34 percent in 2010.

India’s rise as a global geoeconomic player is the driving factor behind its emerging strategic alignment with the United States. After China, India has been the fastest growing economy for about two decades. It went from being the 11th largest economy in 2012 to the fifth largest in 2022. Last year, it overtook China as the most populous nation on the planet. Washington hopes to leverage India’s economic growth to manage the challenge it faces from a more assertive China.

However, domestic political strife threatens to impede India’s ascent. In parallel with its massive economic reforms and growth, India’s politics have transformed over the past 30 years. From independence until the 1990s, the country’s main secular left-of-center party, the Indian National Congress, faced no major challengers at the national level. For much of India’s history, it was firmly under the control of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, which provided three generations of Indian prime ministers. But severe economic problems, coupled with a leadership crisis in the wake of two major assassinations (Prime Minister Indira Gandhi in 1984 and former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1992), weakened the hold of the party.

Around the same time, right-wing Hindu nationalism emerged as a significant social and political force, represented by the new Bharatiya Janata Party. Founded in 1980, the BJP went from two seats in Parliament in the 1984 elections to well over 150 when it formed its first government 12 years later. Although the Congress party played a key role in the liberalization of the economy in the 1990s and during its two stints in power from 2004 to 2014, the political culture of the country had significantly changed by the early 2010s, with religious nationalism having replaced secularism as the dominant national ideology.

Under the leadership of current Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP made a roaring comeback in the 2014 elections, more than doubling its parliamentary seats. Paradoxically, however, Modi’s India has experienced faster economic growth combined with intensifying right-wing Hindu nationalism. The latter threatens to undermine the stability of the country.

Elections are slated for the spring, and the ruling BJP is expected to at least retain its majority, giving Modi a third term as chief executive. India’s economy will likely continue to surge ahead as it benefits from the diversion of Western investment away from China. And barring any unforeseen developments, Modi will probably continue to balance the economic imperatives of the state with the growth of a new Indian identity centered on the majority Hindu religion, which is key to his political success. However, over the medium to long term, the rise of Hindu nationalism could corrode the secular foundations of the state, destabilizing it in the process.

On the foreign policy front, India’s role in the international security space will continue to increase. For much of India's history, the military was tied down in South Asia by its regional rival Pakistan, but the weakening of the Pakistani state, especially in the past five years, has enabled India to look beyond the region. This trend will continue to enable India to focus on building its capabilities to deal with China on land and at sea.

Being a key partner of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region places India in the middle of the U.S.-China struggle. If Washington and Beijing are unable to reach an accommodation in the coming year, then we can expect increased conflict between the Chinese and the Indians. Meanwhile, violence in the Middle East has undermined the security of shipping in the northwestern Indian Ocean basin, forcing New Delhi to take a greater role in the region’s maritime security. This, in addition to tensions along their shared Himalayan border, could become a point of friction between the Indians and the Chinese.

ya

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Re: India/Indian Ocean (and India-afpakia and India-China)
« Reply #674 on: February 11, 2024, 07:52:56 AM »
Elections ongoing in Pak at the moment. Imran Khan is in prison, but looks like he won the election. Army does not like that, so the other two parties of Nawaz and Bhutto will form a coalition. Imran stays in prison. The army gets what it wants.
Cartoon says " Never won a war, never lost an election" !