Author Topic: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia  (Read 257580 times)

Crafty_Dog

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #800 on: May 15, 2025, 06:27:53 PM »
" the hypocrisy is that US supports Pak, its own proxy who creates terror in India and all over the world. This is what the argument is about. Instead of denouncing Pak terror for the last several decades, the US sells weapons to Pak, which then are used against India."

Would you flesh this out please?

Of course I get that during the Afghan War we engaged in a lot of duplicity, but what are the facts since then?

DougMacG

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ya

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #802 on: May 16, 2025, 03:19:31 AM »
I am using GrokAI to avoid my own bias and am outlining terror activities against the world and then specifically against India. Since the US is the main sponser of Pak since its independence, it is widely considered a US proxy until now, with it becoming a Chinese proxy in the last few years.

I. Pakistan’s Alleged Role in Terror Activities Worldwide

Pakistan has faced accusations from various countries and international organizations of supporting or tolerating terrorist groups, particularly those operating in South Asia and beyond. While Pakistan denies state-sponsored terrorism and attributes such activities to non-state actors, critics point to its military and intelligence agencies, notably the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), as enablers.
Support for Militant Groups in Afghanistan
Taliban and Haqqani Network: Pakistan has been accused of providing safe havens, funding, and logistical support to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network, particularly in its northwestern tribal regions along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. These groups have targeted U.S., NATO, and Afghan forces since 2001. The United Nations and Western media have criticized Pakistan’s inability to control these areas, describing them as terrorist sanctuaries.

Motivations: Pakistan’s alleged support is driven by strategic interests, including countering Indian influence in Afghanistan and ensuring a pro-Pakistan government in Kabul. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 2018 suggested the government turned a blind eye to cultivate the Taliban to counter Indian-friendly Afghan regimes.

International Response: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Pakistan on its grey list multiple times (last removed in 2022) for deficiencies in countering terrorist financing, reflecting global concerns about its role.

Alleged Links to Global Terrorist Organizations
Al-Qaeda and Affiliates: Pakistan’s tribal areas, particularly the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), have been described as safe havens for al-Qaeda operatives post-9/11. While Pakistan has aided in capturing some al-Qaeda members, critics argue it has selectively targeted groups threatening its own security while tolerating others.

Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM): These Pakistan-based groups, designated as terrorist organizations by the UN and the U.S., have been implicated in attacks beyond South Asia, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks, which killed 166 people. LeT and JeM are accused of receiving ISI support, though Pakistan denies this.

Global Perception: In 2008, the Brookings Institution labeled Pakistan, alongside Iran, as one of the world’s most active sponsors of terrorism, citing its support for groups posing threats to the U.S. and its allies.

Counterterrorism Efforts and Contradictions
Domestic Actions: Pakistan has conducted military operations, such as Operation Zarb-e-Azb (2014), targeting groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), al-Qaeda, and others in North Waziristan, leading to a significant decline in domestic terrorism (89% reduction by 2017).

Criticism of Selective Targeting: Analysts argue Pakistan distinguishes between “good” militants (those serving its strategic interests, e.g., anti-India or anti-Afghan groups) and “bad” militants (those attacking Pakistan, like TTP). This duality has led to accusations of playing both sides in the global fight against terrorism.

U.S. Relations: The U.S. has oscillated between viewing Pakistan as an ally (post-9/11) and a problem, suspending military aid in 2018 over inaction against groups like LeT and JeM. Pakistan’s prosecution of LeT’s Sajid Mir in 2022 was a notable step, but critics say it falls short of dismantling all terrorist networks.




ya

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #803 on: May 16, 2025, 03:23:37 AM »

II. Pakistan’s Alleged Terror Activities Against India


India has consistently accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism to destabilize its territory, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and other regions. These allegations center on Pakistan’s military and ISI support for insurgent and terrorist groups, a charge Pakistan denies, claiming these are indigenous movements or non-state actors.

Insurgency in Jammu and Kashmir
Historical Context: Since the 1947 partition and the First Kashmir War, Pakistan has been accused of using irregular troops and militants to challenge Indian control over Jammu and Kashmir. This strategy was evident in 1947, 1965, and the 1999 Kargil War, where Pakistan allegedly sent infiltrators followed by regular forces.

Militant Groups:
Groups like Hizbul Mujahideen, LeT, JeM, and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, based in Pakistan, are accused of conducting attacks in Indian-administered Kashmir. India claims these groups receive training, funding, and arms from the ISI. For example, the 2019 Pulwama attack, which killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, was claimed by JeM.

Recent Incidents: The April 2025 Pahalgam attack, killing 26 tourists, was attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a LeT splinter group. India alleged “cross-border linkages” to Pakistan, which Pakistan denied, calling for an international investigation. India responded with Operation Sindoor, targeting nine terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

High-Profile Terror Attacks in India
2001 Indian Parliament Attack: Five Pakistani nationals attacked India’s Parliament, killing nine. India alleged ISI involvement, a claim Pakistan rejected.

2008 Mumbai Attacks: LeT executed a four-day assault, killing 166 people. David Headley, a key planner, testified to ISI involvement, and India claimed the attackers were in contact with Pakistani handlers. Pakistan denied state involvement but faced a UN ban on LeT’s affiliate, Jama’at-ud-Da’wah, which it has not fully enforced.

Other Incidents: The ISI has been linked to attacks like the 2006 Mumbai train bombings, 2006 Varanasi bombings, and 2007 Hyderabad bombings, though Pakistan attributes these to non-state actors.

Support for Separatist Movements
Khalistan Movement in Punjab: India accuses Pakistan of supporting Sikh separatist groups to revive the Khalistan movement, citing ISI funding and training. A Punjab MLA claimed this is retaliation for India’s role in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Former Pakistani army chief Mirza Aslam Beg endorsed using the Kartarpur corridor to assist Khalistan activists.

Northeast Insurgencies: Pakistan is alleged to have supplied arms to groups like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), though evidence is less conclusive compared to Kashmir.

Strategic Objectives and Indian Responses

Pakistan’s Alleged Goals: India claims Pakistan uses terrorism as a “thousand cuts” strategy to weaken it economically, politically, and militarily, avoiding direct conventional warfare due to India’s superior strength.

Indian Countermeasures: India has responded with “surgical strikes” (2016), airstrikes (2019), and Operation Sindoor (2025) targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. Diplomatic measures include suspending the Indus Water Treaty and downgrading ties post-Pahalgam.

Escalation Risks: Both nations’ nuclear capabilities and frequent border skirmishes (e.g., 3,000 cross-border strikes in 2017) heighten the risk of escalation. India’s revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019 further strained relations.

III. Pakistan’s Perspective and Denials

Official Stance: Pakistan denies sponsoring terrorism, asserting that groups like LeT and JeM operate independently. It accuses India and Afghanistan of supporting anti-Pakistan groups like TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), citing the 2016 arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, whom Pakistan claims was an Indian spy. India denies this, calling Jadhav a retired naval officer abducted from Iran.

Domestic Terrorism: Pakistan highlights its own suffering from terrorism, with 971 fatalities in 2022, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. It argues that its military operations and losses (e.g., in FATA) demonstrate commitment to fighting terrorism.

Geopolitical Context: Pakistan claims its actions are defensive, aimed at countering Indian hegemony and securing strategic depth in Afghanistan. It points to U.S. support for anti |Soviet mujahideen in the 1980s as a root cause of regional militancy, indirectly implicating Western policies.

IV. Critical Analysis
Evidence and Bias: India’s allegations are supported by testimonies (e.g., David Headley), UN designations, and FATF actions, but public evidence linking Pakistan’s state directly to attacks is often limited, fueling Pakistan’s denials. Indian media and political rhetoric may amplify the narrative, while Pakistan’s selective counterterrorism undermines its credibility.

Regional Dynamics: The India-Pakistan rivalry, rooted in Kashmir and partition, drives mutual accusations of terrorism. Afghanistan’s role in supporting TTP against Pakistan complicates the narrative, suggesting a cycle of proxy warfare.

Global Implications: Pakistan’s alleged support for groups like LeT and JeM risks isolating it diplomatically, as seen in U.S. aid suspensions and FATF scrutiny. However, its nuclear arsenal and strategic location limit international pressure.

Domestic Factors:
Pakistan’s internal instability, including military dominance and radicalized segments of society, enables militant groups to operate, even if not always state-directed. Public opinion, per Pew polls, shows limited but notable support for groups like LeT (14% favorable in 2015), particularly among younger and educated cohorts.

V. Conclusion
Pakistan’s alleged role in global terrorism centers on its support for groups like the Taliban, LeT, and JeM, driven by strategic interests in Afghanistan and against India. Against India, Pakistan is accused of a decades-long campaign of proxy warfare, particularly in Kashmir, with high-profile attacks like Mumbai 2008 and Pahalgam 2025 escalating tensions. While evidence suggests ISI involvement, Pakistan’s denials and its own terrorism challenges highlight a complex picture. The lack of conclusive public evidence and mutual accusations of terrorism between India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan underscore the need for diplomatic efforts to break the cycle of violence, though nuclear risks and entrenched rivalries make resolution elusive.


ya

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #804 on: May 16, 2025, 03:43:18 AM »
US direct aid to Pak is summarized below. In Trump's first term, Trump stopped most aid, but now he is upset with Modi. You wont read this anywhere, but here's what I believe is Trump's peeve with Modi. During the US Presidential election, Modi visited the UN general assembly for a meeting, Trump as he is wont to do, declared to his followers that Modi is a great friend and loves "hindus" and Modi will come and visit him. Being peak election season, Modi did not want to interfere with US election politics and politely declined the invitation. This made Trump lose face.

Trump did something similar again, took credit for a cease-fire with Pak, when none was due. Again, the Indian establishment pointed out the facts and Trump is big mad. So you may wonder why India did not let Trump take credit for it. Its a big deal in India for that determines who won the war. What  happened was the Pak Dir Gen of Military Operations (DGMO) called and asked for a cease fire, suggesting Pak cried Uncle. If Trump brokered the cease fire, it would mean the war was a draw and Pak was given a get out of jail card free.

He is slowly backing down from "brokering" the cease fire to "helping" the cease fire. Similarly he publicly pressured Tim Cook of Apple to not invest in India, but he is backing down from what I hear. The fact remains if Apple manufactured iphones in the US, the cost would triple, since labor costs are quite high in the USA.

You will note, Zelensky did visit the US at the same time and rallied in support of Biden and also visited US weapons factories with democrat politicians. This is one reason why Trump is not supportive of Zelensky at all.

Summary of Estimates
Military Aid (1947–2019): ~$40–50 billion, with $7.89 billion post-9/11 alone (CSF-dominated).

Economic Aid (1947–2019): ~$20–30 billion, peaking in 1962 ($2.3 billion) and 2009–2014 ($7.5 billion via Kerry-Lugar).

Total Aid (1947–2016): $78.3 billion (2016 USD), per some estimates, with higher figures ($147.6 billion through 2023) including reimbursements and covert aid.

Post-2018: Military aid largely suspended, with $397 million allocated in 2025 for counterterrorism-specific programs. Civilian aid remains low (~$200 million in 2022).

« Last Edit: May 16, 2025, 03:51:27 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India, Pak, WSJ
« Reply #805 on: May 16, 2025, 03:59:16 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-trump-calmed-the-india-pakistan-clash-40bdbca7

The article has some truths and broadly outlines Pak terror activities against India, but his conclusions are incorrect "In the longer term, the U.S. has an obvious stake in securing peace between India and Pakistan. Mr. Trump needs India as part of his strategy to contain China. The more secure you make India against Pakistan, the freer India will be to help take on China. If India is to be useful to the U.S. as a counterforce to Beijing, it has to be relieved of its Pakistan headache."

If India is to be relieved of the Paki headache, Pak needs to be destroyed and broken up. Only after that, India can take on China, otherwise in any war against China, Pak will join it, resulting in a two front war. One would think the author would understand basic geopolitics of India.

ya

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #806 on: May 16, 2025, 04:14:02 AM »
Modi in an address to the nation, declared a new doctrine, after Rubio declared that India-Pak will have talks in a  neutral location, another misstep by the USA that India never agreed to.

Modi has declared the below and he does what he says..
1. The only thing left to discuss is the Return of Pak Occupied Kashmir.
2. Nuclear Blackmail and sabre rattling wont work anymore. This was something that Pak has done ever since they got the atom bomb and the western media amplifies it. India broke this threat narrative by bombing certain a-bomb storage sites and stopping the flow of Indus water rivers (which was going to lead to a nuclear war).

India has put the unfair Indus Water Treaty which gives 80% water to Pak on hold, even though the rivers originate in India (India is the upper riparian). Not only that, India periodically opens the dams to flood Pak and at other times closes the dams, so that no water flows. This will destroy the crop sowing season in Pak and food shortages could result. In the meantime work is ongoing to permanently shift water flows away from Pak in the form of building of canals, increasing pondage, new dams etc.

Pak is screwed.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2025, 04:40:56 AM by ya »

ya

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Re: India, India-China, India Afpakia, India-Russia
« Reply #807 on: May 16, 2025, 04:28:38 AM »
And right on cue, Balochistan declares independence on May 9. To be sure, they have not received recognition from India or the world, but  support is rising to establish a Baloch consulate in India. Modi has been very supportive of the baloch people, with close ties to India. Pre-independence, it was part of undivided India. The break-up of Pak is ongoing. Pakhtunkhwa will be taken by the Taliban, the so called region of the Durrand Line. Province of Sindh (southern Pak) could rejoin India.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2025, 04:32:11 AM by ya »

ya

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India-Pakistan water wars
« Reply #808 on: May 16, 2025, 05:08:21 AM »
Water wars with Pak are ongoing.
https://x.com/i/status/1923027775901880800
« Last Edit: May 16, 2025, 03:17:15 PM by Crafty_Dog »