Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 80256 times)

Crafty_Dog

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More Zeihan
« Reply #800 on: September 14, 2022, 11:12:14 AM »


Crafty_Dog

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G M

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DougMacG

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Re: Russian TV says GM's bloggers are wrong
« Reply #804 on: September 14, 2022, 11:50:07 AM »
How close are the Uke forces to Moscow?

It might be time to define what a Russia loss is.

I think Crimea (they already had it) and some other coastline gains are a win.  The rest starts to look like a quagmire, a loss, a mistake, a miscalculation, an opportunity they found to show weakness to other rivals and at home. 

The loss of Sweden and Finland to NATO is a loss for Russia no matter how energy and winter come out.

(I've said) they should be stripped of their "permanent" stature at the UN.  That would be a loss.

Russia doesn't know how to win, how to lose or how to save face at this point.

Russia has nukes.  So what.  What are they going to do, blow one up in the middle of Ukraine, and that would gain them what??  A surrender?  I doubt it.

We had nuclear capability, plenty of it, during Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.  That and a quarter, as they say, doesn't buy a cup of coffee.

G M

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Re: Russian TV says GM's bloggers are wrong
« Reply #805 on: September 14, 2022, 11:59:40 AM »
If Russia has to kill every last Uke to win, they will.



How close are the Uke forces to Moscow?

It might be time to define what a Russia loss is.

I think Crimea (they already had it) and some other coastline gains are a win.  The rest starts to look like a quagmire, a loss, a mistake, a miscalculation, an opportunity they found to show weakness to other rivals and at home. 

The loss of Sweden and Finland to NATO is a loss for Russia no matter how energy and winter come out.

(I've said) they should be stripped of their "permanent" stature at the UN.  That would be a loss.

Russia doesn't know how to win, how to lose or how to save face at this point.

Russia has nukes.  So what.  What are they going to do, blow one up in the middle of Ukraine, and that would gain them what??  A surrender?  I doubt it.

We had nuclear capability, plenty of it, during Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan.  That and a quarter, as they say, doesn't buy a cup of coffee.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #806 on: September 14, 2022, 01:54:28 PM »

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #807 on: September 14, 2022, 02:12:28 PM »

Crafty_Dog

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« Last Edit: September 14, 2022, 04:23:14 PM by Crafty_Dog »

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #809 on: September 15, 2022, 04:57:13 AM »
Is Russia losing ?
Stoltenberg admitted that there has been “no sign” that Putin or Moscow is giving up its objectives in Ukraine. He keeps insisting that Russia’s ultimate goal in the conflict is “taking control of Ukraine.” He knows that is not true and perhaps is begging Putin to adopt that goal. If that were true, Putin should do as the USA did in Iraq – (1) take down the power grid, (2) take down the communications, (3) attack the water supply, and (4) attack the food supply.


https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/is-russia-losing/

The above scenario seems to be playing out ?. Power grid, dams, food supply.....

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #810 on: September 15, 2022, 05:09:47 AM »
"Putin is certainly aware that the internal front is under some pressure. He refuses even partial mobilization. A perfect indicator of what may happen in winter is the referenda in liberated territories. The limit date is November 4 – the Day of National Unity, a commemoration introduced in 2004 to replace the celebration of the October revolution (it already existed in imperial times).

With the accession of these territories to Russia, any Ukrainian counter-offensive would qualify as an act of war against regions incorporated into the Russian Federation. Everyone knows what that means."

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-kharkov-game-changer



Crafty_Dog

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DougMacG

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Re: Why bridge to Crimea has not been destroyed
« Reply #813 on: September 16, 2022, 09:26:29 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE5afkEqG08

VERY interesting.

I like this one, giving Russian troops an easy escape route when Ukraine retakes the peninsula.   )

Crafty_Dog

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D1: 5 Russian installed officials killed?
« Reply #814 on: September 16, 2022, 10:54:22 AM »
Developing: Five Russian-installed officials have reportedly been killed on occupied Ukrainian territory in the past 24 hours, according to Mathew Luxmoore of the Wall Street Journal, reporting from Kyiv on Friday. That includes "Two in Luhansk, one in Kherson, and two more in Berdyansk," he tweeted. If confirmed, "it would demonstrate the growing reach of its intelligence deep inside Russian-held territory and could further demoralize Russian forces at a time when they have suffered stinging defeats on the battlefield," he added.


Germany's military chief says Russia's reserve troops may be a much smaller force than outsiders had initially believed, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht told Reuters in an interview on Friday. "Nevertheless," she cautioned, "one should not be mistaken: Russia is far from defeated and still has various military options." Read more from that interview here and (with an eye to China) here.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #815 on: September 16, 2022, 05:31:43 PM »
Luke Gromen tweeted this.  Something I was not aware off.
Putin's Paradox:

The higher the USD goes against every currency in the world (except the RUB), the greater the incentive every  nation in the world will have to buy oil from Russia in non-USD, just to survive (thereby de-dollarizing their oil imports.)

ya

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G M

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Crafty_Dog

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WSJL Does this solve Putin's manpower and ammo shortages?
« Reply #819 on: September 17, 2022, 01:50:50 PM »
Russia’s Use of Iranian Kamikaze Drones Creates New Dangers for Ukrainian Troops
Shahed-136 drones supplied to Russia carried out several devastating strikes in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region over past week, Ukrainian commanders say

By Yaroslav TrofimovFollow
 and Dion NissenbaumFollow


Russia has inflicted serious damage on Ukrainian forces with recently introduced Iranian drones, in its first wide-scale deployment of a foreign weapons system since the war began, Ukrainian commanders say.

Over the past week, Shahed-136 delta-wing drones, repainted in Russian colors and rebranded as Geranium 2, started appearing over Ukrainian armor and artillery positions in the northeastern Kharkiv region, said Col. Rodion Kulagin, commander of artillery of Ukraine’s 92nd Mechanized Brigade.

In his brigade’s operational area alone, the Iranian drones—which usually fly in pairs and then slam into their targets—have destroyed two 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, two 122-mm self-propelled howitzers, as well as two BTR armored infantry vehicles, he said.

Before the current wide-scale use of the Shaheds, Russia carried out a test last month, striking a U.S.-supplied M777 155-mm towed howitzer with the drone, Col. Kulagin said. Another Iranian drone malfunctioned and was recovered, he said.

So far, the Iranian drones seem to have been mostly deployed in the Kharkiv region, where the 92nd Brigade and other Ukrainian forces carried out a major offensive this month, retaking some 8,500 square kilometers, or roughly 3,300 square miles, of land occupied by Russia and seizing or destroying hundreds of Russian tanks, artillery pieces and armored carriers.

“In other areas, the Russians have overwhelming artillery firepower, and they manage with that. Here, they no longer have that artillery advantage, and so they have started to resort to these drones,” Col. Kulagin said.

Independent experts who examined photographs of recent drone wreckage from the Kharkiv region say that it appears to be Shahed-136, the latest evolution of Tehran’s delta-wing design.

Scott Crino, founder and chief executive of Red Six Solutions LLC, a strategic consulting firm, said the Shahed-136 could provide Russia with a “potent counterweight” to the high-tech weapons systems, such as Himars missile launchers, that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine.


“The presence of Shahed-136 in Ukraine war is undoubtedly changing the operational plans of Kyiv,” he said. “The sheer size of Ukraine battlefield makes it hard to defend against the Shahed-136.”

Mr. Crino said the Shahed-136 can be used with great effect with one targeting a radar system and the second one hitting artillery pieces. Iran also has antijamming systems that can make it hard for Ukrainian forces to counter, he said. “Once a Shahed locks onto target, it will be hard to stop,” he said.

Russia’s use of Shahed-136 drones in Ukraine represents the most challenging expansion of Tehran’s arsenal beyond the Middle East, where Iran has successfully used its unmanned aerial vehicles to pressure America and its allies in the region. It also highlights the deficiencies in Russia’s own drone program, which hasn’t been able to match the firepower of armed UAVs deployed by Ukraine.

Israel and the West have accused Iran and its proxies of flying armed drones to attack Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, American soldiers in Syria, as well as tankers in the Gulf of Oman in recent years.

The British Ministry of Defense, in its intelligence update on Sept. 14, also said it was highly likely that Russia had deployed Iranian drones in Ukraine for the first time. Noting that the Shahed-136 has a claimed range of 2,500 kilometers, it added that so far, it appears that Moscow is using these drones for tactical strikes near front lines rather than to destroy more strategic targets deep into Ukrainian territory.


The Iranian drones are relatively small and fly at a very low altitude, making it hard for Ukrainian air-defense systems to detect them, Col. Kulagin said. He said he hoped the U.S. and allies could provide Ukraine with more advanced antidrone technologies, or would step in to disrupt Iranian drone shipments to Russia.

In July, U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Russian defense officials had visited Iran, preparing to purchase up to several hundred Iranian drones, including the weapons-capable ones, on an expedited timeline. At the time, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian denied the plan in a phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart and said that Tehran opposed the war on Ukraine, according to a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Russia hasn’t publicly commented on Iranian drone purchases. Iran’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to a recent Wall Street Journal request to comment on the matter. The Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

On Sept. 8, the U.S. Department of the Treasury said it had sanctioned Iranian company Safiran Airport Services for coordinating Russian military flights that transported Iranian drones and related equipment to Russia, and Iranian drone-manufacturing companies Paravar Pars, DAMA and Baharestan Kish.

Drones of different kinds play an important role in the Ukrainian conflict, in part because neither side has air superiority and is, therefore, reluctant to use manned aircraft over enemy positions. Hundreds of military and commercial reconnaissance drones hover in the air daily along the front lines, spotting targets and guiding artillery fire.

Ukraine, unlike Russia, also operates a fleet of drones armed with missiles. These Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones destroyed several Russian armored columns in the early days of the war and are being used more frequently once again, now that Kyiv has been able to weaken Russian air defenses in many areas, in part thanks to U.S.-supplied AGM-88 HARM antiradar missiles.


The U.S. accused Iran of using delta-wing drones as part of a coordinated 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, including in Jeddah.
PHOTO: ANDREJ ISAKOVIC/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Both Russia and Ukraine also use what are known as kamikaze drones, or loitering munitions. Russia’s Kalashnikov Group has developed a homemade drone known as Kub-Bla, while Ukraine is flying Polish-made Warmate and U.S.-supplied Switchblade drones, as well as some locally made UAVs. These munitions have a much shorter range and flying time than the Iranian-developed Shahed drones, and carry a significantly smaller payload.

Iran has emerged as one of the world’s most resourceful developers of combat drones, in part by reverse-engineering American drones that went astray over the past two decades in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Since Iran unveiled its kamikaze drones in 2016, versions of them have been used to carry out attacks across the Middle East. Last year, the British government accused Iran of using Shahed-136 drones to strike an Israeli-affiliated oil tanker off the coast of Oman, in an incident that killed two crew members. A U.S. military investigation recovered drone debris from the MT Mercer Street tanker and concluded that these were parts of Iranian made delta-wing drones.


Washington also accused Iran of using delta-wing drones as part of a coordinated 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry.

The U.S. and Israel have accused Iran of providing militants everywhere from Yemen to Lebanon with the training and the parts they need to develop their own drones.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly used delta-wing drones to carry out attacks on neighboring Saudi Arabia. In February, Israeli officials said, U.S. jet fighters brought down two Iranian delta-wing drones over northern Iraq. Israeli officials said the drones were heading for Israel.

While the Biden administration has been warning for months that Iran was preparing to provide Russia with hundreds of drones to use in Ukraine, the U.S. initially expected Tehran to have shipped drones capable of carrying missiles, not the kamikaze-style Shaheds.

Michael Knights, a military specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank, predicted that Ukrainian forces would be able to quickly counter the threat posed by Iranian kamikaze drones. “Iran’s drones look snazzy in Yemen and Syria and Gaza, but they’re increasingly blockable,” he said.

Ukraine, he said, is “a serious counter-air environment and electronic warfare environment that Iran hasn’t really experienced before.” These drones, Mr. Knights added, “tend to have effect at first and then the shock effect wears off.”


Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com and Dion Nissenbaum at dion.nissenbaum@wsj.com

DougMacG

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Re: Putin: No hurry in Ukraine
« Reply #820 on: September 17, 2022, 05:00:04 PM »
https://summit.news/2022/09/17/putin-tells-allies-no-hurry-in-ukraine-warns-of-more-serious-action-to-come/

Of course that's what you say when you have no immediate answer for the humiliating events on the ground.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #821 on: September 17, 2022, 05:55:50 PM »
Those Iranian drones might be/become a serious problem , , ,

Crafty_Dog

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Zeihan
« Reply #822 on: September 19, 2022, 10:05:29 AM »



Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman
« Reply #825 on: September 20, 2022, 08:02:38 AM »
September 20, 2022
View On Website
Open as PDF

    
Russian Options
By: George Friedman
Last week, I discussed the nature of tactical nuclear weapons. They are built for tactical effect, not strategic effect. Strategic nuclear weapons, such as the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can devastate a large area, with both the blast and the nuclear fallout. The blast area would be devastated, and the fallout would increase the lethality and carry it a significant distance downwind. However, it must be remembered that regardless of casualties, neither city was completely abandoned, and both were populated and functioning at a reasonable level about a year after the bombs were detonated. The power of tactical nuclear weapons (depending on the type) is less than 1 percent of the Hiroshima blast, and as important, they yield little nuclear fallout.

Tactical nuclear weapons can determine the outcome of a battle but not a war, and would not make the land unlivable. Therefore, Russia’s other nuclear option is strategic: to destroy Ukrainian cities with a Hiroshima-type weapon. This option has two weaknesses. The winds in Ukraine are variable and in eastern Ukraine, for example, blow to the northeast. A strategic nuclear detonation would send fallout blowing into Russia and in this example toward Voronezh, a strategic Russian city. Any use of a strategic nuclear weapon would likely affect Russian territory.

A second risk, however unlikely, concerns the Western response. The United States, the United Kingdom and France all possess strategic nuclear weapons. Any of them might take a Russian strike on Ukraine as a potential threat to themselves, triggering an exchange. This may be farfetched and none of the three might imagine it, but in a command center, fears are magnified. Given the limited value of tactical nukes and the potential disaster of strategic nukes, Russian nuclear threats are excellent psychological warfare (unless a Russian enemy takes the threat seriously) but cannot solve Russia’s military problem.

Its problem consists of four parts. The first is that the Russians are deployed in Ukraine as they began the war, on salients vulnerable to flank attacks, which happened. A retreat into more defensible formations would make sense but would also have serious political consequences, as it would indicate another retreat after the one in the north earlier in the war. A second problem appears to be insufficient, poorly trained and unmotivated forces with which to mount a counterattack sufficient to force a major Ukrainian retreat. A third problem is the long-standing Russian/Soviet problem: logistics. In order to mount a counterattack, the Russians must have not only initial supplies but also massive additional supplies arriving reliably where they are needed. This leads to their fourth problem. U.S. satellites are providing constant, accurate intelligence on all forces, including logistical movements. In addition, U.S. artillery of various sorts is capable of cutting the Russian line of supply, leaving an offensive paralyzed. And finally, Ukrainian forces are sufficiently dispersed that a last-ditch tactical nuclear strike would likely impact the Russian offensive.

It would seem that Russia has been forced into a permanent defensive posture. If this were World War II, Russia would be able to rebound. But Russia has not fought a multidivisional war for 77 years. We saw the Russians open the war with three armored thrusts largely unable to cope with logistical problems and anti-tank weapons. In effect, they were forced to retreat from offensive missions, regroup and wind up in the position they are in. They are fighting an enemy in the same position, but one that does not have a logistical problem thanks to the U.S., which has also had its share of failure but whose most robust capability is logistics.

The Russians must obviously change the dynamic of the war if they are not going to be forced into a political settlement. The key is to pose threats to the Ukrainians from multiple directions, both tactically and strategically. Indeed, their primary need is to diffuse U.S. logistics by creating a serious military threat to another American ally or directly attacking one. It is not clear that the U.S. would be unable to supply two fronts, but it might unbalance the U.S. and force it to reduce support for Ukraine, possibly opening opportunities for Russia.

Geography provides few options for this, but the most likely ones are Moldova and Romania, two countries connected to one another. It could not be an overland offensive but would have to take advantage of the Black Sea, landing significant forces in Romania, a NATO member and host to an American naval force. To achieve this, the Russians would have to first use missiles to eliminate Ukrainian anti-ship missiles like those that sank the Moskva. Having done this, they would have to achieve and maintain air or missile superiority over the Black Sea and then land and lodge sufficient force to compel Romanian forces into combat with substantial American forces. Given that there are American naval forces outside the Bosporus, and given that NATO’s mandate or sheer necessity would force the Bosporus shut, this would pose a serious threat to the Russians. Add to this an air attack on Russian forces, and this operation would likely fail.

There are perhaps other viable diversionary actions of sufficient significance to compel the United States to divert its forces, but all of them would be built on land movements at a time when Russia is hard-pressed. An attack on the Baltics would bring a significant Polish attack on Russia’s flank, and mounting an attack on Finland, for example, would be detected and anticipated. The same is true with Romania, but with somewhat lower opportunity.

Of course, the Romanian gambit itself is highly dubious, but here we are assuming that Russia has been forced to the defense and that it is unwilling to abandon the war. Few options are attractive at this point, but the political cost of abandoning the war is enormous. If they must continue and the Russians can’t regain the initiative, then a Hail Mary is the only option.

The final option is one I wrote about before, which is massing forces in the east and then attacking Ukraine with new forces. That remains the most likely solution for Russia, assuming it can mass, train and motivate a large force. If not, Russia might achieve a poor draw, but it cannot impose its will on Ukraine.

Crafty_Dog

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A poster on my FB page
« Reply #826 on: September 20, 2022, 12:18:55 PM »
"Russia is facing a no win situation. They can use battlefield nukes, or even larger ones which could allow them to win the war but at a terrible cost. Let's assume that because the Ukraine isn't NATO that NATO doesn't attack Russia. That would avert war, but it wouldn't be the end of it. Few nations would back Russia's play, and those that do would be fair weather friends dependent on Russia oil.

"China is not going to back Russia, neither is India. You might get a few African nations but that isn't a majority of nations, or even a respectful near minority. In the case above Russia could claim victory, remain in the area's they seized in 2014, and retreat behind their borders. Of course Russia would be a pariah nation, I expect they would be booted from the UN, no one is going to issue Russia visas. Trade will be reduce from places like Europe, America, and even the far east. Sanctions will remain, and the Russian economy will wither and die.

"So, what is Russia going to do? Well, Putin is going to give a speech tonight and as I understand it he is going to declare war or at least a general mobilization. Start calling up men up to as old as 50, and continue doing what Russia has always done. They will attempt to overwhelm an enemy. First, they bomb and rocket a target, send in men to destroy what remains, declare victory, kill the inhabitants and move on to the next village. It can work given enough men, rockets, artillery shells, and men willing to kill and rape across the Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Will it work in the Ukraine and greater eastern Europe? My answer is short and quick, no. Russia is taking the chance that using nukes will trigger Article 5 of the NATO accords. Then Russia will be fighting not just the Ukraine, but the combined fire power of NATO. In the meantime what will Putin do?

"I think in the end Putin will opt for a full scale mobilization, sending in slightly trained men, using old equipment taken out of Museums, call back units from all over the world, and do what has worked in the past. And when this too doesn't work, and he gets to the point that battlefield nukes are the only way to not lose a war. He will give the orders, and he will be removed. Who cares how, whoever takes over will declare Putin crazy a traitor, or both. This new leader will work out the best deal he can, hope in 5 or 10 years the world will forget, and Russia can rebuild from this drastic mistake....

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #827 on: September 20, 2022, 07:48:53 PM »
Putin will hold a referendum in Donbass etc, they will become Russian Territory. Any future fight by Ukr will therefore be against the Russian federation. That will allow Putin to use more force and perhaps even partially mobilize.

G M

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Re: A poster on my FB page
« Reply #828 on: September 20, 2022, 09:00:47 PM »
Obviously someone who only knows what has been spoonfed by western propaganda.

"Russia is facing a no win situation. They can use battlefield nukes, or even larger ones which could allow them to win the war but at a terrible cost. Let's assume that because the Ukraine isn't NATO that NATO doesn't attack Russia. That would avert war, but it wouldn't be the end of it. Few nations would back Russia's play, and those that do would be fair weather friends dependent on Russia oil.

"China is not going to back Russia, neither is India. You might get a few African nations but that isn't a majority of nations, or even a respectful near minority. In the case above Russia could claim victory, remain in the area's they seized in 2014, and retreat behind their borders. Of course Russia would be a pariah nation, I expect they would be booted from the UN, no one is going to issue Russia visas. Trade will be reduce from places like Europe, America, and even the far east. Sanctions will remain, and the Russian economy will wither and die.

"So, what is Russia going to do? Well, Putin is going to give a speech tonight and as I understand it he is going to declare war or at least a general mobilization. Start calling up men up to as old as 50, and continue doing what Russia has always done. They will attempt to overwhelm an enemy. First, they bomb and rocket a target, send in men to destroy what remains, declare victory, kill the inhabitants and move on to the next village. It can work given enough men, rockets, artillery shells, and men willing to kill and rape across the Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Will it work in the Ukraine and greater eastern Europe? My answer is short and quick, no. Russia is taking the chance that using nukes will trigger Article 5 of the NATO accords. Then Russia will be fighting not just the Ukraine, but the combined fire power of NATO. In the meantime what will Putin do?

"I think in the end Putin will opt for a full scale mobilization, sending in slightly trained men, using old equipment taken out of Museums, call back units from all over the world, and do what has worked in the past. And when this too doesn't work, and he gets to the point that battlefield nukes are the only way to not lose a war. He will give the orders, and he will be removed. Who cares how, whoever takes over will declare Putin crazy a traitor, or both. This new leader will work out the best deal he can, hope in 5 or 10 years the world will forget, and Russia can rebuild from this drastic mistake....

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #829 on: September 21, 2022, 12:40:05 AM »
I didn't remember the details, but my FB friend does have resume in the area-- I have messaged him asking him to refresh my memory.

Here it is:

"Sure, in 1965 the US Army sent all the guys from my intel school to Korea or Vietnam, they sent the Jewish kid to Germany. I live in Germany for three years picked up German, and actually lived with a German family. During my time living in Germany, I traveled around Europe. Saw everything from the tip of Spain, to as far north as Bergen Norway. For one year I lived in Berlin, right next to one of the canals that separated East from West Germany. In fact, the Bridge that they exchanged Gary powers was only a short drive away. Which meant I could clearly hear the sounds of machine guns going off when the Vopo's shot at people trying to flee to freedom.

"I was lucky in that I got to actually ask real live former Nazi soldiers what it was like fighting for Hitler. I got some interesting answers. One group of former soldiers told me the holocaust never happened, and if it did happen Hitler never knew about it. And I had a German friend whose father had been a SS Major, who fought so he said on the Eastern Front. He never said anything anti-Semitic, but I asked him about the war and he told me he had fought against the Russian. In fact, he had dozens of photos on his Kitchen walls of him in his black SS uniform. He was the local Graf, so I'm sure everyone in the dorf, (Village) he was Graf in knew what he had done in the war.

"Not to get too wordy, but the Germany of the 1960's is far different today. Which is why I push back against people who try and tie modern Germans with those who were around in the 30's and 40's. A huge amount of change, Germans today by and large have brought German Jewish history back to the forefront of German history. All of the history both good and bad. In the 1960's I couldn't find the remains of a Synagogue that had been destroyed on Kristallnacht. Today those building are memorials.  They have signs on them and only in German telling the reader what they were. The signs are to remind the Germans, they aren't to impress tourists. I've been to Germany three times in the last four years, and I fly on my Israeli passport. I've never had one bit of problem, but then I don't wear my Jewishness on my sleeve. And while my German isn't as good as it was, it's still the dialect of the Heidelberg area. Which means its farmer German not high German.....Anyway, I hope that answered your question....."


Anyway, here is his post of this morning.
======================

"What is interesting is how similar the current situation is with pre-war Europe. The annexation of the Sudetenland by Germany was, to a large degree, prepared by the Sudeten Germans, who—after accepting with great reluctance the Treaty of Saint-Germain, which had placed them under Czechoslovak rule in 1919—responded with increasing approval to the German nationalist. Today Russian's living in the Crimea are talking about a plebiscite to become part of Russia. This will of course mean that Russia can claim aggrieved status if the Ukraine with the help of NATO takes back what Russia will claim as Mother Russia."

"In 1938 Germany was saber rattling because the Sudetenland had so many native German speakers. Today Russia claims that wherever Russian is spoken is Russia. Hitler threatened war if he didn't get his way, today Putin does the same. The onset of the Second World War demonstrated that the League had failed in its primary purpose, the prevention of another world war. There were a variety of reasons for this failure, many connected to general weaknesses within the organisation. Those same weaknesses that plagued the League also plague the UN. Back in the 1930's the League was mostly silent in the face of major events leading to the Second World War, such as Hitler's remilitarisation of the Rhineland, occupation of the Sudetenland and Anschluss of Austria, which had been forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles. Today the Russians are part of the Security Council, but they failed to take their problem with the Ukraine to the UN for arbitration. Proving once again that there are things the UN does well and things they don't. Preventing wars apparently is one of the jobs that they don't do well."
« Last Edit: September 21, 2022, 12:55:22 AM by Crafty_Dog »

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #830 on: September 21, 2022, 05:26:16 AM »
His experiences in Germany applies to Russia?

 :roll:


I didn't remember the details, but my FB friend does have resume in the area-- I have messaged him asking him to refresh my memory.

Here it is:

"Sure, in 1965 the US Army sent all the guys from my intel school to Korea or Vietnam, they sent the Jewish kid to Germany. I live in Germany for three years picked up German, and actually lived with a German family. During my time living in Germany, I traveled around Europe. Saw everything from the tip of Spain, to as far north as Bergen Norway. For one year I lived in Berlin, right next to one of the canals that separated East from West Germany. In fact, the Bridge that they exchanged Gary powers was only a short drive away. Which meant I could clearly hear the sounds of machine guns going off when the Vopo's shot at people trying to flee to freedom.

"I was lucky in that I got to actually ask real live former Nazi soldiers what it was like fighting for Hitler. I got some interesting answers. One group of former soldiers told me the holocaust never happened, and if it did happen Hitler never knew about it. And I had a German friend whose father had been a SS Major, who fought so he said on the Eastern Front. He never said anything anti-Semitic, but I asked him about the war and he told me he had fought against the Russian. In fact, he had dozens of photos on his Kitchen walls of him in his black SS uniform. He was the local Graf, so I'm sure everyone in the dorf, (Village) he was Graf in knew what he had done in the war.

"Not to get too wordy, but the Germany of the 1960's is far different today. Which is why I push back against people who try and tie modern Germans with those who were around in the 30's and 40's. A huge amount of change, Germans today by and large have brought German Jewish history back to the forefront of German history. All of the history both good and bad. In the 1960's I couldn't find the remains of a Synagogue that had been destroyed on Kristallnacht. Today those building are memorials.  They have signs on them and only in German telling the reader what they were. The signs are to remind the Germans, they aren't to impress tourists. I've been to Germany three times in the last four years, and I fly on my Israeli passport. I've never had one bit of problem, but then I don't wear my Jewishness on my sleeve. And while my German isn't as good as it was, it's still the dialect of the Heidelberg area. Which means its farmer German not high German.....Anyway, I hope that answered your question....."


Anyway, here is his post of this morning.
======================

"What is interesting is how similar the current situation is with pre-war Europe. The annexation of the Sudetenland by Germany was, to a large degree, prepared by the Sudeten Germans, who—after accepting with great reluctance the Treaty of Saint-Germain, which had placed them under Czechoslovak rule in 1919—responded with increasing approval to the German nationalist. Today Russian's living in the Crimea are talking about a plebiscite to become part of Russia. This will of course mean that Russia can claim aggrieved status if the Ukraine with the help of NATO takes back what Russia will claim as Mother Russia."

"In 1938 Germany was saber rattling because the Sudetenland had so many native German speakers. Today Russia claims that wherever Russian is spoken is Russia. Hitler threatened war if he didn't get his way, today Putin does the same. The onset of the Second World War demonstrated that the League had failed in its primary purpose, the prevention of another world war. There were a variety of reasons for this failure, many connected to general weaknesses within the organisation. Those same weaknesses that plagued the League also plague the UN. Back in the 1930's the League was mostly silent in the face of major events leading to the Second World War, such as Hitler's remilitarisation of the Rhineland, occupation of the Sudetenland and Anschluss of Austria, which had been forbidden by the Treaty of Versailles. Today the Russians are part of the Security Council, but they failed to take their problem with the Ukraine to the UN for arbitration. Proving once again that there are things the UN does well and things they don't. Preventing wars apparently is one of the jobs that they don't do well."

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #831 on: September 21, 2022, 07:06:10 AM »
Well, as part of the US Army he was in Germany precisely to defend against Russia/the Soviet Union/the Warsaw Pact so yes, it would be a big part of his professional interest and would add to his sense of European geopolitics.  Perhaps "spoon fed by Western media" is not applicable?

Anyway, moving on, this seems quite like what one of the Zeihan posts predicted above Russia finding in a real pickle around Kherson:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-troops-boxed-ukrainian-forces-dnieper-river-barge-carrying-supplies-russian-troops-sinks?fbclid=IwAR18Q1B6QTk6cRCbPB4FXOGcZ0CY5skNiN1-lpfyNLoUloPQxlzz9Lk93To

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #832 on: September 21, 2022, 02:04:36 PM »
When did the Warsaw Pact end?



Well, as part of the US Army he was in Germany precisely to defend against Russia/the Soviet Union/the Warsaw Pact so yes, it would be a big part of his professional interest and would add to his sense of European geopolitics.  Perhaps "spoon fed by Western media" is not applicable?

Anyway, moving on, this seems quite like what one of the Zeihan posts predicted above Russia finding in a real pickle around Kherson:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-troops-boxed-ukrainian-forces-dnieper-river-barge-carrying-supplies-russian-troops-sinks?fbclid=IwAR18Q1B6QTk6cRCbPB4FXOGcZ0CY5skNiN1-lpfyNLoUloPQxlzz9Lk93To

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #833 on: September 21, 2022, 03:14:47 PM »
You are relentless!

 :-D


ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #835 on: September 22, 2022, 04:47:21 AM »
Putin will hold a referendum in Donbass etc, they will become Russian Territory. Any future fight by Ukr will therefore be against the Russian federation. That will allow Putin to use more force and perhaps even partially mobilize.

After the referendum, Russia annexes the Donbass + region and declares cease fire, just in time for winter. I dont see any EU support for waging war against Russia, for Russians they are now defending mother Russia, as opposed to being an attacking force in Ukraine. Checkmate.

G M

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ccp

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US "aid " always is defrauded
« Reply #837 on: September 22, 2022, 08:13:55 AM »
wherever US spends "aid"

whether to Americans or overseas countries
 a huge chunk is stolen

leftist cynics would remind us that is "the cost of doing business"

I hate that expression  .......


G M

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Re: US "aid " always is defrauded
« Reply #838 on: September 22, 2022, 08:20:33 AM »
https://www.azquotes.com/vangogh-image-quotes/68/2/Quotation-Ron-Paul-Foreign-aid-is-taking-money-from-the-poor-people-of-68-2-0201.jpg



wherever US spends "aid"

whether to Americans or overseas countries
 a huge chunk is stolen

leftist cynics would remind us that is "the cost of doing business"

I hate that expression  .......

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #839 on: September 23, 2022, 05:08:46 AM »
Does the Kharkiv withdrawal make sense now...Ukrainians were jubilant, that Russia was losing...


Crafty_Dog

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DougMacG

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Re: POTH: Putin getting involved
« Reply #842 on: September 25, 2022, 06:22:50 AM »
I do not have access to this , , ,

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/23/us/politics/putin-ukraine.html?fbclid=IwAR3CcahofRJTcm0j76Gy5yWeaKH5yQYiRbVvQBICjF7AXyk3K1reJh3XktQ

Russia’s Surveillance State
Costs of the War
As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy
The Russian president has rejected requests from commanders in the field that they be allowed to retreat from Kherson, a vital city in Ukraine’s south.

Ukrainian soldiers operate a drone near Kherson, in southern Ukraine. It was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control.
Ukrainian soldiers operate a drone near Kherson, in southern Ukraine. It was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control. Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
Julian E. BarnesHelene CooperEric SchmittMichael Schwirtz
By Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Michael Schwirtz
Sept. 23, 2022
WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. Kherson was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control. Retaking it would be a major accomplishment for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

Focused on victory at all costs, Mr. Putin has become a more public face of the war as the Russian military appears increasingly in turmoil, forcing him to announce a call-up this week that could sweep 300,000 Russian civilians into military service. This month, Moscow has demonstrated it has too few troops to continue its offensive, suffers from shortages of high-tech precision weaponry and has been unable to gain dominance of Ukraine’s skies.

But American officials briefed on highly sensitive intelligence said that behind the scenes Mr. Putin is taking on an even deeper role in the war, including telling commanders that strategic decisions in the field are his to make. Although Mr. Putin has accepted some recommendations from military commanders, including the mobilization of civilians, his involvement has created tensions, American officials said.

The officials said that Mr. Putin’s rejection of a military pullback from Kherson has also led to a decrease in morale among Russian troops who have been mostly cut off from their supply lines, and who appear to believe they could be left stranded against Ukrainian forces.

“The situation in Ukraine is clearly dynamic,” Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview on Friday. “It’s too early for a full assessment, but it is clear to me that the strategic initiative has shifted to the Ukrainians.” But he cautioned that there remains a “long road ahead.”

Mr. Putin’s disagreements over battle lines in Kherson illustrate how critical the war in Ukraine’s south is to both sides, American officials said. Despite Ukraine’s recent advances in the northeast, the area around Kherson is a critical theater in the war, with profound strategic implications for Kyiv and Moscow.

Some American officials said they saw trouble ahead for the Russian military in the southern theater. A senior U.S. official said this week that Ukraine was well on its way to repeating in the south the gains its forces had managed during a lightning offensive in the northeast earlier this month. If Ukraine pushes Russian forces back farther, Mr. Putin’s hard-fought-for land bridge to Crimea, the territory it captured from Ukraine and annexed in 2014, could eventually be threatened, American officials said.

The divisions over Kherson are only the latest disagreements between Mr. Putin and his top commanders. Senior Russian officers repeatedly questioned the early plans for the war, American officials said, particularly an initial stage that envisioned a quick strike on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The Russian officers believed Mr. Putin was going to war with insufficient troops and weaponry, American officials said.

Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine War
Updated
Sept. 25, 2022, 7:46 a.m. ET1 hour ago
1 hour ago
The Kremlin’s mobilization effort includes forcing Ukrainians to fight their own country.
NATO members will hold an ‘extraordinary meeting’ on weapons production.
Zelensky calls on Russians to resist Putin’s conscription.
The Russian officers’ concerns proved correct, and after the defeat of the Russian army outside Kyiv, Mr. Putin eased up his control of military planning. He allowed senior generals to create a new strategy focused on massive artillery barrages, American officials said. The new strategy was effectively a grinding war of attrition that played to the Russian military’s strength and succeeded in pushing the army forward in eastern Ukraine.

Since Mr. Putin ordered his commanders to continue fighting in Kherson, the Russian military has tried to halt the Ukrainian advance there. Last week the Russians blew up a dam on the Inhulets River to make the current counteroffensive more difficult.

But Ukrainian strikes have blown up the crossings over the Dnipro River, which has largely cut off Russian troops from their supply lines on the other side. Russians have had to use pontoon bridges to cross the river, only to see them hit by Ukrainian fire, Ukrainian officials said. “They’ve got units in there who, if the Ukrainians break through the lines, will be cut off and surrounded,” said Seth G. Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I cannot overstate how dicey the situation is for them.”

Pulling back past the Dnipro River would likely allow Russian commanders to hold the line in the south with fewer troops. That would give them more latitude to redeploy forces from Kherson to other areas, either pushing back against the Kharkiv counteroffensive in the northeast, solidifying defensive lines in the eastern Donbas region or opening up a new front in the south.

But Mr. Putin has told commanders he will set the strategy.

“In this war there has been a consistent mismatch between Putin’s political objectives and the military means to attain them,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute in Arlington, Va. “At important decision points Putin has procrastinated, refusing to recognize the reality, until the options turned from bad to worse.”

Pulling Russian forces back past the Dnipro River would also be a stark rebuttal to Mr. Putin’s referendum there on joining the Russian Federation. Holding such sham votes is a key objective of Moscow. Blocking them remains one of Kyiv’s top priorities.

With dissent rising in Russia, and military-age men attempting to flee the country to avoid the call-up, U.S. officials say Mr. Putin believes another Ukrainian victory would further erode the popularity of the war, something he cannot risk. Videos widely shared on Twitter in the days since Mr. Putin announced his call-up show angry draftees being scolded by shouting Russian military officials. “Playtime’s over!” yells one military official in one video. “You’re soldiers now!”

Mr. Putin’s conversations with his regional military commanders in Ukraine may also be part of an effort to get more accurate assessments of the campaign. As the war has gone on, American officials have said that Mr. Putin has not been given accurate information from his top military advisers, Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the Russian military’s chief of the general staff.

In addition to blocking a retreat from Kherson, Mr. Putin has raised doubts about Russian efforts to consolidate their position in the northeast near the Oskil River, which the Ukrainian counteroffensive reached this month. Mr. Putin, an American official said, has opposed pulling back there as well, because he is reluctant to hand anything to Mr. Zelensky that looks like a win.

Even as Mr. Putin demands a strategy of no further retreats, American officials said Russian officers themselves are divided on how to respond to the Ukrainian counteroffensives. Some officers believe they should push back hard on Mr. Putin’s directives before the Ukrainians break through their current lines. Others believe they can follow through on Mr. Putin’s directives.

Russia has continued to focus on the south, despite Ukrainian progress east of Kharkiv. While Moscow has sent some reinforcements to embattled northeastern positions, most of the tens of thousands of troops that Russia sent south to the Kherson area — including some of its best combat forces — remain in place.

© 2022 The New York Times Company
« Last Edit: September 25, 2022, 06:25:06 AM by DougMacG »

G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Gen Keane
« Reply #844 on: September 25, 2022, 02:52:20 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-losing-war-ukraine-forcing-annexation-referendum-secure-political-victory-keane-says?fbclid=IwAR3VGK1D8NF4D8wcyDs7xOJXkYb0B8iuYmdnL1ZoCByml2t8Ns95GyB0B0s

What if Putin were to nuke Odessa as response to Ukes going to retake Donbas, which he is now about to assert IS part of Russia?

G M

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Re: Gen Keane
« Reply #845 on: September 25, 2022, 03:37:44 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-losing-war-ukraine-forcing-annexation-referendum-secure-political-victory-keane-says?fbclid=IwAR3VGK1D8NF4D8wcyDs7xOJXkYb0B8iuYmdnL1ZoCByml2t8Ns95GyB0B0s

What if Putin were to nuke Odessa as response to Ukes going to retake Donbas, which he is now about to assert IS part of Russia?

What if Putin let the winter settle in and then took down the Uke infrastructure?

ya

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Re: Gen Keane
« Reply #846 on: September 25, 2022, 04:03:08 PM »
https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-losing-war-ukraine-forcing-annexation-referendum-secure-political-victory-keane-says?fbclid=IwAR3VGK1D8NF4D8wcyDs7xOJXkYb0B8iuYmdnL1ZoCByml2t8Ns95GyB0B0s

What if Putin were to nuke Odessa as response to Ukes going to retake Donbas, which he is now about to assert IS part of Russia?

Odessa is mostly Russian speaking...he has designs on it, nuking it would not make sense. Perhaps some part of Ukr with few Russians, or some part of Ukr closer to Europe.

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DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine, Roger Waters agrees with some here?
« Reply #849 on: September 25, 2022, 07:11:24 PM »
And gets kicked out of Poland.
https://www.startribune.com/pink-floyd-founder-cancels-poland-concerts-after-war-remarks/600209843/
Paywalled

(AP)
WARSAW, Poland — Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters has canceled concerts planned in Poland amid outrage over his stance on Russia's war against Ukraine, Polish media reported Saturday.
...
City councilors in Krakow were expected to vote next week on a proposal to name Waters as a persona non grata, expressing "indignation" over the musician's stance on the war in Ukraine.

Waters wrote an open letter to Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska early this month in which he blamed "extreme nationalists" in Ukraine for having "set your country on the path to this disastrous war." He also criticized the West for supplying Ukraine with weapons, blaming Washington in particular.

Waters has also criticized NATO, accusing it of provoking Russia.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2022, 07:15:38 PM by DougMacG »