Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 223266 times)

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Ukraine's will to fight
« Reply #300 on: January 29, 2022, 11:53:08 AM »
KYIV, Ukraine—In a forest one frigid recent morning, this country’s last line of defense was training for the nightmare scenario of a Russian invasion reaching deep into the interior.

An architect dove in the snow to practice taking cover. A 51-year-old mother of three toted an assault rifle as she pivoted to engage an enemy.

Ukraine is fleshing out a territorial-defense force to take on the might of Russia’s military if it breaches front-line defenses. The aim is to have a brigade of reservists in each of the country’s regions, able to react quickly if the enemy blasts or sneaks its way through.

“We are the weekend army,” said Yuriy Bredak, a 33-year-old architect and father of two young children.


Denis Semyrog-Orlyk, a 46-year-old architect, instructs his unit during training in a Kyiv park last week.
The units aim to address a core problem Ukraine had when Russia sent an invasion force in 2014: Citizens were willing to fight, but weren’t prepared or organized. One-third of respondents in a survey late last year said they were ready to take up arms if Russia invades.

Eight years ago, thousands of poorly trained volunteers headed to the front to fight equally chaotic separatists and Russian fighters. Their derring-do helped liberate some towns, but when they faced covert Russian army units, they were crushed.

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The Ukraine government is seeking to avoid that scenario this time by offering training and a structure for those who don’t want to make a full-time commitment to the army. These reservists are valuable partly because Russia has a strategic advantage: It can attack from the north, south or east, or even stage armed attacks inside the country. Starting from last spring, the citizen-soldiers are activated if martial law is declared.

Territorial battalions were established in 2014, then were rolled into the army. They have now been re-established with a clear structure. Officials say they are adding large numbers of new recruits, aiming for a total reserve force of some 130,000.

“They will defend cities, villages, critical infrastructure, bridges, tunnels, roads, et cetera,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said.

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Joining requires a conversation with the local unit commander, medical checks, proof of no criminal record and signing a contract. Then training begins, including practical and theoretical classes.

Some participants of the recent training session were a little skeptical that the authorities have managed to rally as many volunteer fighters as the government projects.

Some of the 420,000 veterans of the eight-year war in Ukraine’s east said they were waiting for more clarity about whether a conflict will break out before they commit, and prefer to band together with former comrades-in-arms over joining new groups.

Most have jobs and families that they are hoping not to abandon for the front line unless absolutely necessary.

Satellite Images Show Russia’s Military Buildup Near Ukraine
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Satellite Images Show Russia’s Military Buildup Near Ukraine
Satellite Images Show Russia’s Military Buildup Near Ukraine
The U.S. said about 100,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the Ukrainian border. Satellite images show the growing presence of military equipment at several locations. Photo: Maxar Technologies
Ukraine has been under threat so often, for so long, that many people have grown complacent about the need for urgent preparedness, particularly in recent years when the pandemic added to their daily struggles.

“Our military preparation is a problem—a lot of Ukrainians don’t want to fight,” said Yuri Boyko, who at age 68 is considered too old to fight, but attends the training as an adviser. “Life is busy and Ukrainians lost a lot of energy due to the long war, now Covid, [and] other issues.”

“Much more needs to be done to be ready in case Russia attacks,” he added.

Participants are a mix of veterans and ordinary folk energized by the desire to resist.


Reservist Marta Yuzkiv at home outside Kyiv on Tuesday. Speaking of Russia, she said, ‘They have been trying to destroy Ukraine for a long time.’
Marta Yuzkiv, 51 years old, said she is fired up by memories of Soviet rule of Ukraine, part of a long history of Moscow’s domination of her country.

“I know what will happen if Russia comes here,” she said, expressing particular concern that Russian forces will be holding military exercises at the start of February in Belarus, which has a border with Ukraine 75 miles from Kyiv.

“They have been trying to destroy Ukraine for a long time,” she said. “They destroyed our churches, they stole our history…. It is something I don’t want to repeat.”

Ukraine is training younger reservists as well. About 180 male and female students from a local university stood at attention, side-by-side in snow some 3 inches thick, watching Ms. Yuzkiv and her fellow fighters conduct training exercises. Some grew fidgety as training dragged on in the cold, but they acknowledged that they recognize the threat to their country is real and they could be called to battle.


Students at a local university watched the Territorial Defense Battalion training in a Kyiv park last week.
PHOTO: \
Military customs are difficult for civilians to get used to, especially the need to give and follow precise orders, said Denis Semyrog-Orlyk, a 46-year-old architect and reservist.

He said he was alarmed by the news of the Russian military buildup, mostly because he recalled the destruction wrought by Russian forces in Syria.

Mr. Semyrog-Orlyk also worried about how his family would cope if he has to go fight. He had kept a reserve of savings in case of war, but with the long conflict and economic troubles, he has already spent it. “It is like that for most people,” he said.

Still, he said, Ukraine had become a different country in recent years, and people would be motivated by defending their homes against an invader.

“In war the main thing is will to win,” said Mr. Semyrog-Orlyk. “The Russians don’t have the same motivation as we do.”

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Ukraine's growing sense of national identify
« Reply #301 on: January 29, 2022, 12:19:37 PM »
Ukraine’s Growing Sense of National Identity Puts It in Putin’s Crosshairs
Russian leader has long argued that the two countries are inseparable, but Ukrainians have other ideas, increasingly speaking their own language and celebrating their independence from Moscow
Kyiv residents celebrate Ukrainian Unity Day on Jan. 22.
By James Marson
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 | Photographs by Anastasia Vlasova for The Wall Street Journal
Jan. 28, 2022 10:53 am ET


KYIV, Ukraine—In December, the local edition of lifestyle magazine Elle announced a new fashion on its cover: It would publish only in Ukrainian, not Russian.

The switch in languages for a publication that is hardly a hotbed of nationalist ferment goes some way toward explaining why Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the issue of Ukraine now. Since Russia first invaded portions of the country in 2014, Ukraine has been severing cultural ties with its old imperial ruler and developing a keener sense of what it means to be Ukrainian. That undermines the argument Mr. Putin routinely cites as justification for his interventions here—that Ukrainians are essentially Russians.

In the subsequent eight years, Ukrainians have torn down hundreds of Lenin statues and changed the names of cities and streets connected with the country’s Soviet past. The language of conversation in Kyiv, which a decade ago was usually Russian, is now more frequently Ukrainian. In 2019 the country won its own Orthodox Church after centuries in which believers were part of Moscow’s flock.

Mr. Putin has fought back with pen and sword. Last year he wrote a 7,000-word essay describing Ukraine as an artificial creation of Soviet leaders made up largely of historically Russian lands. He has railed against the changes, suggesting they were driven by radical nationalists and part of a plot by foreign intelligence agencies to divide the two countries. Now he is massing more than 100,000 troops around Ukraine as a possible prelude to another invasion.

“The clock is running against Putin,” said Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister. “The country is changing.”


The Kyiv offices of Elle Ukraine.

Editor Sonya Zabouga transitioned the magazine away from Russian.

The cultural changes have been mirrored by political and economic shifts. Before 2014, polls showed a roughly even split in support among the population for joining the European Union or a Moscow-led economic bloc. In a November survey, however, 58% favored the EU, with 21% for Russia’s group. Polling data show that even people in the south and east, where there are many ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, are now in favor of the EU.

Ukraine’s exports, once almost evenly led by trade to Russia and to EU members, now predominantly flow westward. In 2020, sales to Poland, Ukraine’s smaller western neighbor, overtook exports to Russia.

It has been a long road for Ukraine, which struggled for centuries to assert its own identity under the rule of Russia and other empires. Several attempts at establishing a Ukrainian state were snuffed out, and Ukrainian culture was repressed. In Soviet times, promoting Ukrainian as a distinct identity was a dangerous undertaking that frequently ended in Siberian labor camps, while official propaganda often portrayed Ukrainian culture as a folksy curiosity.

After declaring independence in 1991, when the Soviet Union dissolved, Ukraine remained strongly under Russian influence, owing to economic, cultural and political ties. The Orange Revolution in 2004, where hundreds of thousands hit the streets to overturn the disputed election of a Russia-backed leader, was a turning point. Ukrainians showed that, unlike in Russia, street protests could effect change, even against the will of Moscow.


People sing the Ukrainian anthem in Kyiv’s Sophia Square this month.

The new president, Viktor Yushchenko, his face scarred by an unsolved poisoning during the campaign, promoted recognition of the Holodomor, the starvation by famine of millions in Ukraine under Stalin. He threw open KGB archives to facilitate research. He sent weapons to a fellow pro-Western leader in Georgia who fought a brief war against Russia. Moscow pushed back, calling Mr. Yushchenko anti-Russian.

He was voted out in 2010, dogged by an economic crisis and failure to fulfill pledges to uproot corruption. The winner of the election was Viktor Yanukovych, the very candidate the Orange Revolution had blocked in 2004. Mr. Yanukovych vacillated between Russia and the West, but he squeezed some of those who promoted an independent Ukrainian identity. He enacted a language law that gave Russian official status in some regions. Mr. Putin gave the Ukrainian lawmakers who penned the legislation a Russian state award.

Mr. Yanukovych denounced Ukrainian nationalist insurgents who fought Soviet rule. Security services detained a historian who ran a museum in Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, which documented the killings of hundreds of Ukrainians by Soviet secret police.

“They wanted to shut the mouths of historians,” said the detained researcher, Ruslan Zabiliy, in an interview in 2016. “They wanted to spread the understanding of one historical space of Ukraine and Russia.”

At the same time, Moscow pressured Mr. Yanukovych to abandon plans for a trade-and-political pact with the EU by restricting trade and threatening more serious measures.

After dozens of protesters were gunned down in February 2014, Mr. Yanukovych fled to Russia, which seized Crimea and fomented a conflict in eastern Ukraine that has cost some 14,000 lives. That sparked an outpouring of patriotism. Volunteer fighters rushed to fight at the front, while others stashed food and clothes in cars to supply them. People painted bridges and fences in blue and yellow, the colors of the national flag. Many adopted a nationalist greeting: “Glory to Ukraine!” and the response: “Glory to the heroes!”

At Elle magazine, the sands were shifting, too. Like most magazines, it had always published in Russian. Ukrainian was long scorned as the language of uneducated villagers while Russian was seen as the language of the urban elite.

Sonya Zabouga, Elle’s chief editor since 2008, said she made a decision to allow authors to choose which language they would prefer to write in.

Ukrainian has much in common with Russian, including its use of Cyrillic script, but most linguists say it is a separate language with many other regional influences, including Polish.

Events of 2014 were “a strong booster,” said Ms. Zabouga. “A lot of people changed their attitude and understanding of what a Ukrainian is.”

The magazine soon mixed Ukrainian and Russian, she said. That reflected Ms. Zabouga’s own life, having grown up speaking Russian with her father and Ukrainian with her mother. She switches seamlessly between the two.

Horizons broadened after the EU allowed visa-free travel with Ukraine in 2017 and low-cost airlines expanded flights to European cities. Hundreds of thousands now study and work in Poland and other EU countries.

The foreign ministry led a campaign against Russian spellings of Ukrainian names, which led many foreign media and airports to switch to calling the Ukrainian capital Kyiv instead of Kiev.


Rita Burkovska, a Ukrainian actress, used to speak Russian with her friends.

Rita Burkovska, a 32-year-old actress who spoke Russian with her friends until 2014 now uses Ukrainian. She had studied in a Russian-language high school but remembered visits as a child to her grandparents’ house in the countryside where she would be surrounded by Ukrainian. She even thought in Russian, she says, but considered Ukrainian her mother tongue.

“There was an attitude that it was shameful to speak Ukrainian, that it was not cool,” she said.

A law came into force in January 2021 obligating stores, cafes and other businesses to provide services in Ukrainian. This January, legislation ordered newspapers and magazines to print at least as many copies in Ukrainian as any other language.

Change has also swept places far from the swanky offices of Elle.

After 2014, villagers in dozens of parishes revolted against priests from the local arm of the Russian Orthodox Church, which has dominated Ukraine for centuries. The church, which claims Ukraine as part of its canonical territory, is closely aligned with the Kremlin. Critics said the church was promoting Russia’s view of the conflict in Ukraine as a “fratricidal war” and not condemning Mr. Putin.

Ukrainians began switching to the Kyiv Patriarchate, a locally run church that supported the 2014 revolution and war effort. The church began displaying photos of the military dead on the walls of St. Michael’s Cathedral in Kyiv, which now number thousands.


In the western Ukrainian village of Soloniv, locals jimmied the lock on their wooden church and held a vote to switch allegiance after the priest refused to pray for those killed in the war.

“People have grown up,” said retiree Kateryna Polyova, a villager, in 2015. “People understood that no one should tell us what to do, but that we are masters in our own home.”

The Kyiv Patriarchate wasn’t recognized by the global Orthodox community, so its leaders and Ukraine’s pro-Western President Petro Poroshenko launched a campaign for Kyiv to have its own church.

Mr. Putin opposed the move, and the Russian Orthodox Church lobbied against it. The Russian president stepped up efforts to emphasize religious and cultural ties with Ukraine, unveiling a statue close to the Kremlin to Vladimir the Great (or Volodymyr in Ukrainian), the Kyiv leader who adopted Christianity more than a millennium ago.

In 2019, the leader of global Orthodoxy in Istanbul, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, granted Ukraine its own church. “It’s a slow process that broke the chains which united Ukrainian society with the Soviet and Russian imperial past,” said Archbishop Yevstratiy, a leader of the independent church. “It’s a slow process, but not reversible or stoppable.”

Write to James Marson at james.marson@wsj.com

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #302 on: January 30, 2022, 06:01:27 PM »
Some snippets from Martin Armstrong...He and his Socrates computer is right more often than not, having followed him for over 2 decades, he tends to get the macro trends correct.

As background he is suggesting that US and European govts cannot pay back their debts. This is what govts have done historically in the French revolution as well as the American revolution, debts of previous govts are not paid back. COVID via Klaus Schwab was an attempt to engineer world collapse and wipe out debts, but that did not work out. So war is another way out.

"Now, these tyrants NEED war as the next great distraction. The refusing to yield to any demands of Russia and then refusing to defend Ukraine is an invitation for Putin to invade. The new strategy is that a war will present the UN as the great peacemaker and validate its claim to rule the world. Russia could also move to establish bases in Cuba and Venezuela to increase the tensions now while they have a senile leader of the claimed free world whose administration is obsessed with climate change as self-evident by the collapse in the supply chain and the soaring inflation that they wanted to terminate fossil fuels without comprehending how much the economy relies upon that energy source.

Washington and the EU have abandoned Ukraine and they will never become part of NATO. Meanwhile, US/NATO missile bases in Poland and Romania will be quietly removed or Russia will establish such bases in Cuba and Venezuela. There is no Kennedy in the White House this time. The Biden Administration will continue to make empty threats for a show, but Putin realizes as does China, that the Biden Administration is so incompetent, they could not lead the world to cross the street no less to stand up to both China and Russia.

While some think that Putin will allow Washington to save face in some meaningless way, all the real people behind the curtain know that Putin has won. There is no possible way that the US and NATO can prevail against China and Russia combined. Now is the time for both China and Russia to make their move. The West is impotent and this is the demise of Western power our computer has been forcasting.

NATO was created on April 4th, 1949. Cyclically, this is 72 years and this is the danger point. That is even the timing for Taiwan. But this 72-Year Revolution Cycle has appeared throughout history and this presents a serious crisis as we now head into March 14th. February is showing up around the world as an important turning point and it is a Panic Cycle in the Russian share index."
« Last Edit: January 30, 2022, 07:05:08 PM by ya »

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #303 on: January 31, 2022, 05:27:33 AM »
"Meanwhile, US/NATO missile bases in Poland and Romania will be quietly removed or Russia will establish such bases in Cuba and Venezuela. There is no Kennedy in the White House this time."

Kennedy did give up missile site in Turkey and 
revealed, as far as I know,  many decades later:

"During the Cuban Missile Crisis, leaders of the U.S. and the Soviet Union engaged in a tense, 13-day political and military standoff in October 1962 over the installation of nuclear-armed Soviet missiles on Cuba, just 90 miles from U.S. shores. ... Kennedy also secretly agreed to remove U.S. missiles from Turkey.Oct 22, 2021"

How was this kept out of the papers?

I guess. the same way we never knew about his affairs and his Addison's disease.......

Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Ukrainian civilians train up to fight
« Reply #304 on: January 31, 2022, 06:46:27 AM »
Civilians Prepare to Defend Ukraine
‘We will never surrender,’ says a Kyiv architect at a training session. ‘Putin should be afraid of us.’
Ukrainian civilians train on the outskirts of Kyiv on Jan. 22. JILLIAN KAY MELCHIOR
By Jillian Kay Melchior
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Jan. 30, 2022 4:18 pm ET
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Kyiv, Ukraine

Denys Semyroh-Orlyk, a 46-year-old architect, has a message for Russia: “We will never surrender. We are using every opportunity to train. So I think Putin should be afraid of us.”

He speaks from the woods on the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital on a frigid Saturday in January, alongside a large group of camouflaged civilians. They’re training to defend their city and resist a Russian occupation. Their weapons are decoys, at least at the session I attended, but their ferocity is genuine and aimed straight at the enemy. They practice an attack and counterattack, making a stark contrast with Kyiv residents taking their dogs out for a morning walk.

The training session reveals much about the strength of Ukraine’s civil society and the citizenry’s determination to remain independent from Russia. Meanwhile, the government’s approach to this civilian defense and resistance movement says something about Ukraine’s current anxieties.

Mr. Semyroh-Orlyk says that before 2014 he was a “cosmopolite.” Bearded, burly and at ease in command, he looks far from one now. Everything changed when Russian fighters—“green pieces of s—,” in his words—seized Crimea. He would like “to thank Mr. Putin for helping us wake up.”

Mr. Semyroh-Orlyk began attending weekly training sessions taught by retired military men, organized in coordination with the Territorial Defense Forces, a part of Ukraine’s military. He’s now a platoon sergeant of the 130th Territorial Defense Battalion, as well as the head of a nongovernmental organization, Territorial Defense of the Capital.


PHOTO: JILLIAN KAY MELCHIOR
The NGO’s training sessions bring together reservists with combat experience and civilian volunteers—several dozen Kyiv residents, men and a few women, mostly in their 30s. Some train with the goal of joining the active-duty ranks, while others belong to a pool from which the army can draw if hostilities flare up. Some were experienced hunters, while others had never used a firearm before they showed up here.

Together they learn and drill to handle a weapon, defend buildings and infrastructure, patrol, ambush adversaries, stanch a battlefield wound, lead and communicate, and other valuable wartime skills. Training entails a major commitment of time, but Mr. Semyroh-Orlyk says he believes Russia will invade eventually, and “we have to do what we can to help Ukraine.”

A December survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that “every third respondent” of some 2,000 it polled “is ready to put up armed resistance” against the Russians. The Warsaw Institute, a Polish think tank, estimated in 2018 that Ukrainians have “almost four and a half million weapons at their homes,” most of them unregistered. That’s in line with estimates from Ukrainian defense experts.






Kyiv residents gather on a frigid day in January to train for how to defend their city and infrastructure and resist Russian invasion.

Photo: Jillian Kay Melchior
Kyiv residents practice attack and counterattack in the woods on the outskirts of the city. On this day, they're practicing with artificial weapons. Not far away, residents walk their dogs and take morning strolls.

Photo: Jillian Kay Melchior
Denys Semyroh-Orlyk, center, says that before 2014 he was a “cosmopolite.” He's now training to be ready to defend Ukraine from Russian aggression.

Photo: Jillian Kay Melchior
A recent poll by the by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that one in three Ukrainians are "ready to put up armed resistance” against the Russians. Other Ukrainians told The Wall Street Journal they are prepared to support Ukraine's defense by donating blood, money and time.

Photo: Jillian Kay Melchior
A cluster of journalists gathered to watch as a young Ukrainian drilled with an artificial weapon.

Photo: Jillian Kay Melchior
There are risks to a bunch of gun-toting Ukrainian civilians willing to lace up their boots and fight—especially when a bellicose Russia is run by a KGB alum like Vladimir Putin. Discipline matters as Ukraine faces an adversary looking for a plausible excuse to launch an attack. Ukrainians also worry that Mr. Putin will try to destabilize their country. Chaos, panic and violence could provide an opening for him to promote one of his puppets here as a “peacemaker,” who would then invite Russian intervention to restore stability. So it’s important to guard against Russian infiltration of these civilian defense and resistance groups.

A new law took effect on Jan. 1 that seeks to impose structure, military control and a chain of command on would-be civilian fighters. The NGOs that train them must register with the government, participants undergo background checks, and the training itself is prescribed by the military, says Gen. Victor Muzhenko, a former top commander of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Civilians wouldn’t decide when they fight. Instead, Ukraine’s president would declare war with the approval of Parliament, and the military would decide how to mobilize civilians and give the orders. “The trigger would not be their trigger,” Mr. Muzhenko says. “It would be the military trigger to say, ‘Now pick up your arms and go to this place.’ ”


Sannikov Oleksii
PHOTO: JILLIAN KAY MELCHIOR
That all looks neat on paper. “How it will work now that we have this law—I don’t know, nobody knows,” says Valeriy Kravchenko, a senior research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a governmental think tank. “We have manpower capacity. We are not sure about the capability of that capacity.” Sannikov Oleksii of the Ukrainian Legion, another NGO involved in training civilians, expressed uncertainty how groups like his would be funded, among other areas of legal ambiguity.

But “at a minimum, Putin has to know that nobody will welcome him here,” Mr. Oleksii says. At maximum? “Ukrainians will cut the throats of the Russians.”

Ms. Melchior is a Journal editorial page writer.


Crafty_Dog

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WSJ: Luhansk and Donetsk are fuct
« Reply #306 on: February 04, 2022, 09:10:40 AM »
STANYTSIA LUHANSKA, Ukraine—The Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions were once the engines of the country’s economy and dominated its politics.

They produced its richest man, billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, as well as former President Viktor Yanukovych, ousted by the street protests that triggered the Russian invasion in 2014.

Since then, however, the two areas—now nominally independent “people’s republics” inside the larger regions of Luhansk and Donetsk—have turned into impoverished, depopulated enclaves that increasingly rely on Russian subsidies to survive. As much as half the prewar population of 3.8 million has left, for the rest of Ukraine, more prosperous Russia or Europe. Those who remain are disproportionately retirees, members of the security services and people simply too poor to move. Current economic output has shrunk to roughly 30% of the level before the Russian invasion, economists estimate.

As Russian President Vladimir Putin is massing more than 100,000 troops for a possible broader invasion of Ukraine, the developments in Donetsk and Luhansk show what many fear could happen to the rest of the country if he were to carry that out. The dismal record of Russian rule is one reason so many Ukrainian citizens, including Russian-speakers, are ready to take up arms so that their hometowns won’t meet the same fate.


Russia-controlled territory

RUSSIA

Kharkiv

KHARKIV

Severodonetsk

Stanytsia Luhanska

LUHANSK

POLTAVA

Slovyansk

Luhansk

DONBAS

DONETSK

DNIPROPETROVSK

Donetsk

Area of detail

Kyiv

DONBAS

UKRAINE

ZAPORIZHIA

50 mi

CRIMEA

Sea of Azov

50 km

Source: Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
Emma Brown/The Wall Street Journal
“The nightmare that started in 2014 in Donetsk has transformed the popular attitudes in mostly Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine,” said Oleksiy Goncharenko, a lawmaker from Odessa, one of the cities in southern and eastern Ukraine rocked by large-scale pro-Russian protests at the time.

“Back in 2014, the majority here were undecided—their main priority was to keep living normally, working in their businesses, sending their kids to school,” Mr. Goncharenko said. “Since then, they’ve seen very clearly that life is quiet only in the areas where the Ukrainian flag remains. They said: We don’t want to live in such a zombie zone, in some kind of Somalia.”

Borys Korolyov, a native of Luhansk city, is now studying at a university in the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, some 220 miles away. On a recent day, he lingered for a few minutes while his cellphone still worked in Stanytsia Luhanska, a crossing point from Ukrainian-controlled to Russian-held areas. Then he picked up his suitcase and headed across a bridge into Luhansk, to visit his parents.

“In Kharkiv, there are new, unexpected things, opportunities at every corner,” said Mr. Korolyov. “In Luhansk, there is nothing to do except stay at home. Boring. No prospects for the future.”


A market stall near the Stanytsia Luhanska crossing point.

Buildings of a psychiatric hospital in the Slovyansk area last week that were damaged in the fighting in 2014. The area is in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk region.
The Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics are among a number of breakaway statelets Russia has fostered on its periphery as it seeks to undermine pro-Western neighbors. Russian troops also occupy the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and the Transnistria republic in Moldova. These territorial conflicts hamper the moves by Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova toward possible membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

When unrest began in eastern Ukraine following Mr. Yanukovych’s ouster and the Russian takeover of Crimea in February 2014, it was led by local pro-Russian militants with the tacit support of local law enforcement and some oligarchs. In April 2014, heavily armed Russian military veterans led by former Russian intelligence officer Igor Girkin seized the city of Slovyansk in the Donetsk region, heralding the start of more open Russian military involvement.

Hastily formed Ukrainian volunteer battalions and the country’s then-dilapidated military responded with a bloody counteroffensive, retaking Slovyansk and a string of other rebel-held towns in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, an area collectively known as Donbas.

When Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Donetsk and Luhansk cities in August 2014, Russia amped up its involvement, sending tanks, anti-aircraft batteries and long-range artillery across the border and imposing a cease-fire agreement on Kyiv.

Front lines have remained largely static since the latest Russian tank offensive in February 2015, even though sniper fire and artillery exchanges continue almost daily, with casualties on both sides.

Serhiy Shakun, known in Luhansk for his openly pro-Ukrainian opinions, operated one of the city’s largest taxi companies, with a fleet of 200 vehicles before the Russian takeover. In 2014, pro-Russian gunmen came to his office looking to detain him. Warned by a phone call, he took his family and escaped, eventually settling in Severodonetsk, the government seat of the Kyiv-held part of the Luhansk region. “They have taken everything. Nothing is left,” he said.


Serhiy Shakun in Severodonetsk.
Many other businesses and institutions were similarly expropriated. Isolyatsiya used to be a popular contemporary art space in Donetsk, hosting exhibitions and performances at a Soviet-era insulation materials factory. When Russian-backed militants took it over in 2014, saying the space was needed to store Russian humanitarian aid, they allowed staff to rescue a collection of Soviet-period social-realist paintings but smashed the contemporary art pieces, melting some of the statues and installations for scrap metal.

The Russian-installed official in charge of the facility, Leonid Baranov, went on television at the time to say that degenerate art had to be destroyed because it ran counter to the values of the new state, prevented young families from procreating and promoted hatred of the Russian idea.

Weeks later, Isolyatsiya’s compound turned into a detention facility operated by the Donetsk republic’s ministry of state security. One of the hundreds of prisoners there was Ukrainian novelist and journalist Stanislav Aseev, who was detained in 2017 after local security officials discovered he was contributing under a pen name to Ukrainian news outlets. Mr. Aseev, who says he was repeatedly tortured with electric shock, was freed in December 2019 as part of a prisoner exchange and now lives near Kyiv.

“They’ve managed to rebuild a Soviet system in the occupied territories—and not the Soviet system of the 1960s and 1970s, but a Soviet system of the 1930s and 1940s, with dungeons, with torture chambers, a system where lives are ruined if you dare to write or say something negative about these republics and their authorities,” Mr. Aseev said.

Russia still doesn’t formally recognize the self-proclaimed independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, something it has already granted to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A bill to do so is making its way through the Russian parliament. Meanwhile, Russia has increasingly absorbed the two enclaves into its own economy.

The breakaway areas have switched from the Ukrainian currency to the Russian ruble; their citizens have been issued Russian passports; their students receive Russian diplomas; and the leaders of both republics last year publicly joined Mr. Putin’s political party, United Russia. Mr. Putin recently ordered the extension of Russia’s welfare benefits to the residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics.

“We see what Ukraine does to us: It shells and blockades Donbas, incites hatred of its residents. In this context, Russia’s actions clearly demonstrate who really cares about the people and their legitimate rights, and who is only interested in gaining territory,” the speaker of the Donetsk people’s republic parliament, Vladimir Bidyovka, said as he thanked Mr. Putin for the move.


An ATM in Stanytsia Luhanska.
PHOTO: ANASTASIA VLASOVA FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A family crossed at the Stanytsia Luhanska entry point.
PHOTO: ANASTASIA VLASOVA FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Donetsk, once one of Ukraine’s wealthiest cities, hosted the 2012 European soccer championship with a new international airport, stadium and swanky hotels built for the event. Its buildings now are covered with billboards praising unity with Russia and honoring several separatist commanders who were mysteriously assassinated after 2014, such as Givi, the leader of a battalion called Somalia.

With the Russian-occupied territories cut off from the international financial system and trade, Western brands’ stores and chain restaurants have shut down. McDonald’s outlets have rebranded as DonMac, offering fries and burgers in similar red packaging. Because of a curfew, most shops and restaurants close early. Property prices have plunged and transactions are difficult because of the legal limbo.

Little remains of the airport, the site of some of the war’s most intense combat in 2014. Mobile network service is patchy and reliable connections with the rest of Ukraine are usually only possible via internet messaging services.

With the bulk of prominent Donbas businesspeople—including Mr. Akhmetov—escaping to Ukraine-controlled territory, the republics have seized most of the region’s biggest mines and industrial enterprises. The most valuable ones now are controlled by Russian investor Yevgeni Yurchenko. In a recent interview with Donetsk TV channels, Mr. Yurchenko said he plans to raise salaries threefold by 2024, bringing them on par with the nearby Russian regions to stem the exodus of skilled workers.

Ukraine recognizes the residents of the occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk as its own citizens, and allows them to enter to renew their documents, obtain medical, mail and banking services unavailable in the breakaway republics—or resettle permanently if they so choose. Even residents who opt for Russian citizenship usually keep their Ukrainian passports, which allow visa-free entry to the European Union.

The crossings into Russian-occupied areas were relatively easy before the Covid-19 pandemic. Currently only the checkpoint at Stanytsia Luhanska, just across the river from Luhansk city, operates daily.

The crossing is usually open only to Luhansk residents, so Donetsk residents wishing to travel to and from the rest of Ukraine have to drive for over 24 hours, making a giant loop via Russia proper.

Only people registered as the occupied areas’ permanent residents are allowed to enter without special permission. The Wall Street Journal was denied accreditation processing by the Luhansk people’s republic, which required proof of residence in Russia to consider requests. The Donetsk people’s republic didn’t reply to an accreditation request.


A bus departed from Stanytsia Luhanska.

Larysa Kandakova waited to cross the border at Stanytsia Luhanska.
On a recent afternoon, Larysa Kandakova, a native of Luhansk currently living in Kyiv, was spending her second day in a small service center at the Stanytsia Luhanska crossing point, waiting for permission from the Luhansk republic to enter to bury her mother, Livia. Aged 72, Ms. Kandakova’s mother died of a heart attack earlier that week. “I am so afraid, I really want to be able to get across,” she said, her eyes swollen. She was last able to see her mother two years ago.

Outside, coarse-voiced taxi and bus drivers touted rides to Kharkiv, Odessa and Severodonetsk to Luhansk residents who had just walked across the bridge separating Stanytsia Luhanska from Russian-held areas. The new bridge, running parallel to one destroyed in 2014, was built by Ukraine to be too narrow for tanks and heavy vehicles. A nurse in a booth just by the gate dispensed Pfizer -BioNTech Covid-19 vaccines, which are unauthorized in Russia and the breakaway republics. Some 3,000 people cross here daily.

Many were reluctant to discuss life in the Russian-controlled territory, casting a wary eye at potential informers in the crowd. “You have to keep your tongue between your teeth all the time because, otherwise, there will be trouble,” said Oleksandr, a gold-toothed retired worker from the town of Stakhanov who crossed to visit his children and declined to provide his surname.

Andrey, who owns an ice-cream wholesaler in Luhansk and was crossing with his wife and child to visit relatives, said it was pointless for ordinary people like him to discuss politics. “Nothing depends on us. Let other people decide for us—the only thing we want is for the war to end,” he said as his wife urged him to ignore “provocative” questions. “For many people, there’s no reason to be nostalgic about Ukrainian rule,” he said. “They had nothing back then, and they have nothing now. For them, nothing has changed.”

While Ukraine has pumped money into jobs and infrastructure across the parts of Donbas it controls, Stanytsia Luhanska is hardly a showcase of prosperity. Frequent shelling by pro-Russian forces has created streetscapes of collapsed roofs and pockmarked walls. Outside the cluster of outlets by the border checkpoints—a grocery, a kebab restaurant, a pharmacy and a Covid testing clinic—few businesses operate.

Development is much more visible in Slovyansk, which is well outside artillery range. New espresso bars, restaurants and hotels have opened throughout the city, as have retail outlets. Many of them are owned by newcomers from Russian-controlled parts of Donbas. Anastasia Monda, a 26-year-old from the town of Shakhtarsk near Donetsk, has worked as a barista in one such coffee shop for the past three years and travels to the occupied areas to visit her mother twice a year.


Anastasia Monda at the coffee shop where she works in Slovyansk.
“My hometown is gloomy. But in Donetsk city, everything looks fine, except that few people remain,” she said. Like many people in Ukrainian-controlled Donbas, Ms. Monda wouldn’t be drawn into talking about a possible Russian invasion. “I am not a political person,” she said. “The less you know, the sounder you sleep.”

Unlike in the wars of the former Yugoslavia, where religion and ethnicity created a permanent identity marker, here whether to consider oneself Ukrainian or Russian is a matter of choice and ideology rather than blood.

“There are so many families here that have broken up because one part supported Ukraine and another backed the Russian aggression,” said Maryna Oliynyk, head of the culture department at the Slovyansk civil-military administration. She no longer speaks to her uncle and cousin, who live in a nearby Ukrainian-controlled town, binge on Russian TV and adore Mr. Putin. “I am a patriot,” she said.

At the Slovyansk local museum, a room is dedicated to the 84 days when the town remained under the control of Russian militias in 2014. Exhibits include rocket-propelled grenades, artillery fragments and ballots of the referendum on independence from Ukraine that pro-Russian forces carried out at the time. Some 100 local residents died in Slovyansk, and more than 2,000 buildings were destroyed or damaged in the fighting. A suburb along the main highway still stands in ruins.



Maryna Oliynyk is the head of the culture department at the Slovyansk civil-military administration. Oleksandr Gayevoy is a curator at the Slovyansk history museum.
“It’s a big stress. Everyone is afraid, God forbid, that it will happen again,” said one of the museum’s curators, Oleksandr Gayevoy, who lived through the fighting in 2014. “People now prefer not to talk too much, because who knows who will come here next.”

Mr. Gayevoy added that one of his brothers, who remained in the Russian-controlled town of Yenakiyevo, former President Yanukovych’s hometown, was an ardent supporter of the Russian-installed regime there but has since changed his views.

“There used to be a lot of enthusiasm for the Donetsk people’s republic in the beginning, everyone chanted DPR, DPR, DPR! Now, there’s just a lot of disappointment,” said Mr. Gayevoy, who last visited the Russian-held areas in 2019. “My brother now tells me that they are ruled by cretins. The economy there has crumbled, the jobs are gone. There’s nothing good over there.”


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NYT: Ukes displaying American supplied weaponry
« Reply #308 on: February 05, 2022, 02:58:19 AM »
With a missile shot, Ukraine sends a public warning to Russia.

By Maria Varenikova
Feb. 4, 2022
YAVORIV, Ukraine — With television cameras rolling, a Ukrainian soldier heaved an America-made missile launcher onto his shoulder and pressed a red button. The missile streaked out and blew a target — a pile of tires — to smithereens.

For the more than two months after Russia began its military buildup near Ukraine last fall, the United States was quiet about its military aid to Kyiv, merely acknowledging sending arms that had been scheduled for delivery long ago.

That has changed now. American cargo planes bringing weaponry and ammunition are arriving openly at Kyiv’s Borispol airport. And the Ukrainian army is making a point of showing media these newly delivered weapons at a military training area.

In the last two weeks, seven U.S. cargo planes carrying a total of about 585 tons of military assistance have landed in Kyiv. After the latest plane arrived, on Thursday, Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, posted on Twitter, “this is not the end! To be continued!”

Along with ammunition for small arms, the planes also delivered a significant number of missiles to Ukraine. These include Javelin anti-tank missiles, which the United States has been providing to Ukraine since 2018.

It also included a type of American-made, shoulder-launched missile that can blow up sandbagged fortifications and destroy partially buried bunkers. On Friday, Ukrainian soldiers fired 10 of the so-called “bunker busters” for international media, including a Japanese television crew.

To critics of the policy of arming Ukraine, this weapon seems provocative. Within Ukraine, nearly half the respondents to an opinion poll published on Wednesday said they believed Western weaponry will deter Russia, but a third said they thought it would do the opposite — provoke an attack. The Russian government has objected to the weapons transfers, and Germany is staunchly opposed to them.

“I do not think it’s realistic to believe such weapons exports could turn around the military imbalance,” Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said on a visit to Kyiv on Monday.

Ukraine’s policy of publicly displaying the new weaponry adds to their value as a deterrent, said Maria Zolkina, a political analyst at Democratic Initiatives Foundation. The media events, she said, will help “destroy the myth that an unprotected Ukraine as an easy catch for Russia.”

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said the weapons airlifts strengthen Ukraine’s hand in dealing with Russia.

“The stronger Ukraine is the lower are the risks of further Russian aggression,” he said in a video conference with journalists this week. “The more defensive weapons we get today the less likely we will need to use them.”

The United States is not the only country that has been arming Ukraine in the airlifts that began last month. The United Kingdom sent about 2,000 light anti-tank missiles. With approval from the United States, the Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia said they would transfer Stinger antiaircraft missiles, filling gaps in Ukraine’s weak air defenses. Poland has also said it will send antiaircraft missiles.

At the demonstration firing of the American bunker busters, only Ukrainian soldiers handled the weapon. They had been through a three-day course taught by instructors from the 53d Infantry Brigade of the Florida National Guard. The Americans stood aside, declining to appear on camera.

The launching tube and missile weigh about 15 pounds and look like a small, green log. When a missile was fired, the whooshing noise rattled dishes on a picnic table set up to provide snacks for the visiting journalists. Ukrainian soldiers cheered when missiles hit the targets of tires and exploded in a red flash.

“It’s very simple, just a gadget,” said Ivan, a 25-year-old Ukrainian senior sergeant, now trained in firing the new missile, who declined to give his last name for security reasons. The soldiers also covered their faces with balaclavas to protect their identities.

But the training itself was simple, Ivan said. “A boy or a girl of any age can fire it. It’s like an iPhone.”

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #309 on: February 05, 2022, 06:36:38 AM »
sending arms and threatening sanctions

seems like the best option
apart from sending US soldiers

which no one wants beside the Lincoln project crowd

and if he was still here - John McCain

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GPF: What Russian people think about conflict with Ukraine
« Reply #310 on: February 07, 2022, 03:48:21 AM »
February 7, 2022
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What Russians Think About the Conflict With Ukraine
They are more worried about their day-to-day lives than the palace intrigue of Kyiv.
By: Ekaterina Zolotova

By now, tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and therefore Russia and the West, are well documented. Russia amassed troops at the border, the U.S. objected, and the negotiations to resolve the issue have gone nowhere, raising the possibility that a military operation is in the offing. One question ignored in the headlines is whether the Russian people actually want to go to war. So far, the answer appears to be a resounding no.

Russian polling agencies have confirmed as much. Less than 5 percent of Russians are ready to participate in a war, according to one poll. In fact, only 20 percent of Russians are closely following the current standoff. Many public figures argue that Russia does not need a war since there is no real threat, and that there is simply no appetite among the people to fight.

The explanations are many for why this is so. One is geography. Though most of the Russian people live on the “European” side of the country, most of the territory lies on the “Asian” side. Unsurprisingly, the threat of war in Ukraine is perceived as a minor security threat for the Asian part of Russia. For the east, the issue is out of sight, out of mind.

Another is culture. Russia is a multinational state with more than 190 ethnicities and nationalities represented in the predominately Russian population. Put simply, this means many Russians identify with the Ukrainians living among them instead of seeing them as enemies. Other nationalities that don’t have a historical and cultural connection with Ukraine don’t really care about the reclamation of Russian borderlands, however important it may be to the government.

Then there is an economic aspect. War is a resource-intensive business, one seen as far less pressing as the Russian economy is stalling, inflation is rising and more than half the population earn incomes below the national average and wait for state-directed projects to improve their living standards. It’s hard for them to care much about geopolitics when they are trying to make ends meet.

Even so, there is a geopolitical explanation for why Russians don’t care so much about the conflict. For them, it’s one issue of many, not an existential issue itself. They see it through the prism of Western-Russian tensions, one that for them is all too similar to the Cold War. Though many Russians blame the U.S. and NATO for the current escalation, those old enough to remember also understand that the fall of the Soviet Union and the associated loss of territory contributed to many of the problems Russia has today. They understand that all these recent events – Moscow setting its red lines, reengaging in the former Soviet space, the arguments about Nord Stream 2, the Belarusian border crisis, NATO exercises in eastern Europe, the constant threat of new sanctions, attention to Cuba and Venezuela from Russia, the demonstrative movement of troops from one part of Russia to another, as well as the reduction of gas supplies through the Yamal gas pipeline – are attempts by both sides to test the possibilities and limits of their opponent.

Poll: Who is the initiator of the aggravation of the situation in the east of Ukraine
(click to enlarge)

In that sense, the Ukraine conflict is just one aspect of a larger confrontation between the interests of Russia and the West. For most Americans, it’s a relatively new issue. For most Russians, it’s an issue that has been unfolding since 2014, from the beginning of hostilities in Donetsk and Luhansk and the annexation of Crimea by Russia, over which the talk of war has loomed large for a year. So to the average Russian citizen, this is just informational noise.

Fear of Sanctions

What Russians care about is how this whole confrontation will affect their living standards. They are concerned about the West’s response and thus Russia’s future in international trade and finance because fluctuations in the ruble, inflation and the stability of the financial system will affect their well-being.

Poll: Russian Economic Crisis
(click to enlarge)

Indeed, whipping up military and sanctions hysteria usually costs Russia dearly. The economy is already suffering from accelerating inflation, currency depreciation, stock market crashes and foreign exits from government securities. Conflict-related uncertainty causes an outflow of capital as foreign investments freeze in anticipation of possible sanctions. In January 2022, the share of foreign investment in Russian government bonds decreased to 18.8 percent compared to 34.9 percent in March 2020.

Moreover, the Russian ruble is especially sensitive to events like this. Just the announcement that sanctions were possible caused the ruble to fall. It likewise fell at the end of January when the U.S. Embassy recommended that American citizens leave Ukraine. A weak ruble is worse for Russian citizens than it is for the state, which can still find ways to patch up holes in the budget. People buy foreign products like cars, smartphones and household appliances, so a weak ruble drives up the costs of their consumption.

Russian Ruble Exchange Rate
(click to enlarge)

There are also more general fears that a military engagement would disrupt Russian gas supplies to Europe and food supplies to Asia, Africa and the Middle East, leading to higher prices at home. These fears are not unfounded: The International Monetary Fund recently noted that a possible escalation of the conflict would lead to an increase in energy prices and further acceleration of inflation in the world.

For all these reasons, most Russians aren’t interested in the Ukraine conflict. To the extent that they are, it’s part of a bigger problem in which further deterioration in ties between Russia and the West could harm their quality of life. They live their lives worried about the pandemic, their bottom lines, difficulties in the economy and future sanctions regimes. But not Kyiv itself.


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George Friedman: Is invasion of Ukraine imminent?
« Reply #312 on: February 08, 2022, 04:08:49 AM »
February 8, 2022
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Is an Invasion of Ukraine Imminent?
By: George Friedman
Over the past few days, the United States has warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Russia could take Kyiv in as few as three days. Moscow, for its part, has insisted that it has no intention of invading Ukraine. But Moscow has every reason to lie. The truth behind Washington’s statements is harder to parse.

Obviously, U.S. intelligence might have information indicating that the Russian military will invade this week. If so, publicly saying as much might be meant to deter Russia. The problem is that it won’t. The U.S. has made clear that it would respond to an invasion with extreme economic sanctions rather than with military force. So if Moscow has made up its mind to invade in spite of the consequences, acknowledging the imminence of the attack isn’t much of a deterrent.

That changes if an invasion triggered an American military response. If that were the case, Russia would have to be deeply concerned that U.S. intelligence knows exactly what it can do and what it plans to do. So by advertising the imminence of an attack, the U.S. could be assuming that Russia doesn’t want Ukraine badly enough to risk war, which always has an uncertain and messy outcome. If Moscow believed a fight was at stake with the U.S., it might reconsider its options.

It makes sense that Washington would want to deter Russia. The United States is not eager for a war with Russia, to say the least, and the best way to avoid a war is to threaten a counterstrike. Equally valuable is a public demonstration that American intelligence had penetrated Russian war plans. The Russians would have to assume that their war plans had been more broadly penetrated. If the U.S. knows the timing of the invasion, perhaps it also knows the formations to be used and movements and timing of movements. A three-pronged armored assault, each moving hundreds of miles and being refueled along the way, has to be choreographed like a ballet. If it’s disrupted by air and missile attacks, the entire movement could collapse for want of logistical support and loss of communication.

Under these circumstances, the U.S. – not wanting a war in Ukraine but feeling compelled to engage anyway – would be sending a very clear message: “We know your plans, and will strike at you.” The problem with this theory is that if the U.S. intended to counter a Russian attack by means other than sanctions, it would have made its intentions clear far in advance of the eve of an invasion. More important, the Russians would have seen American preparations. Russia was clearly capable of reconsidering its plans if it was genuinely concerned about the U.S. response.

And yet, the U.S. has refrained from saying outright that war is coming and that it will respond with all the power at its disposal. It has announced only Russia’s “intentions,” without any public hint that the U.S. intends to do something about it. It’s as if the U.S. wants the world to know it knows Russia will soon attack without doing anything other than raising an alarm. This is a strange way to build credibility. If you do not intend to act, it would be better to feign surprise. Having knowledge and still being beaten is a poor option.

If the U.S. is planning to counter the Russian attack, then advertising the fact that it has penetrated Russian war plans is perhaps the clumsiest move of all because Moscow will cancel the attack, create a new plan, and look for and shut down the leak. It is therefore difficult to assume Washington is planning a surprise counterattack, even if it is trying to convince Moscow that it is. It could be that Russia will call off the attack because it has no idea what America’s intentions are. Considering how good Russian intelligence generally is, that’s not very likely.

At this point, it’s all smoke and mirrors. The U.S. says Russia will attack, Russia says it won’t. One of them is either lying or wrong. Either way, the U.S. is drumming up war fever. It may be designed to keep allies like Germany in line, but it’s hard to see how shouting fire but not gathering fire engines will instill enough confidence to rally allies to the United States' side. They may lose all confidence in Russia, but it is amazing how a victory rebuilds confidence.

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GPF: Competing drills on the same days
« Reply #313 on: February 08, 2022, 09:49:18 AM »
Competing exercises. Ukraine said it would hold military drills on Feb. 10-20 in several regions of the country. Russia and Belarus also plan to conduct joint exercises on the same days. Russia's Southern Military District, meanwhile, has already begun tactical drills.


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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #315 on: February 10, 2022, 07:15:53 AM »
I noted the logic of Ukraine in NATO means it can invoke Article 5 to recover Crimea.

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Gen. Keene three days ago
« Reply #316 on: February 10, 2022, 02:45:18 PM »

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George Friedman: The Phases of War
« Reply #317 on: February 11, 2022, 05:43:14 AM »
As always GF is thoughtful, but I'm not seeing here any consideration of the little green men in the Donbass variations.
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February 11, 2022
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The Phases of War
Thoughts in and around geopolitics.
By: George Friedman
As we consider the American claim that Russia intends to attack Ukraine – which the Kremlin denies – it is useful to consider in skeletal form the phases of warfare in order to understand not only the sequence but also the difficulty and risks of war.

There are four phases in attacking and occupying a country:

Phase 1: Intelligence. Understand who you are fighting, his intentions and capabilities, and what war is meant to achieve.

Phase 2: War. Initiate movement and firepower intended to break the enemy’s will and ability to resist.

Phase 3: Occupation. Occupy the country, or that portion that is necessary to achieve the political end desired.

Phase 4: Pacification. Pacify the occupied terrain and break the will of the people to resist.

This is an orderly summary of what is likely the most disorderly thing humans experience. Each stage is more complex and disorderly than might seem possible, and the number of stages can boggle the mind. Nonetheless, simplifying and ordering the chaos of war will help us pose the proper questions and perhaps glimpse the answers.

Intelligence is the first phase, and it precedes the decision to fight. Understanding the intentions of a potential enemy tells you whether what he intends is compatible with your interests. Understanding his capabilities tells you whether you should take the enormous risk of going to war. Intentions and capabilities are things that all countries seek to understand about even the least likely adversary. They tell you who you have to fight and who might fight with you. Intelligence can also guide you on who the enemy might be. When Japan invaded China, it did not anticipate that in due course it might be facing the United States. If there is a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. has a fairly clear idea of who it might be fighting if it intervenes. (China is unlikely to have the capability to project decisive force during the timeframe of any U.S.-Russian conflict.) Russia does not know the order of battle facing it, although it might be clear on what kind of force a potential adversary could bring to bear. The political uncertainty creates military uncertainty.

The second phase is the initiation and prosecution of war. The aggressor decides for the defender. When Germany, allied with the Soviet Union, invaded Poland, Berlin’s intelligence did not tell it about the array of nations and long-run capabilities it would be facing. A decision to go to war is meant to anticipate the shape of the war in the end. Political intelligence is far more difficult to gather than military intelligence. The engines of war can be hidden only imperfectly. The intentions of countries are difficult to fathom, as even those countries are unaware of what they might do. Nevertheless, it is essential to evaluate what they will do when confronted with the war you are launching, either now or in the long run. You must know this in order to know the order of battle you will have to defeat. Hitler understood his potential enemies. He did not appreciate the order of battle the United States would bring to bear or the resilience of the Soviet defense. Whatever Russia’s objective in Ukraine, its uncertainty about who its enemy might be is a deterrent. This is true unless Russian intelligence has deeply penetrated American decision-making.

The third phase is the occupation of the territory or country targeted. Occupation is an end. The means to this end must be the destruction of the enemy’s military, physically or as a matter of morale. France had the material ability to continue resisting Nazi Germany but lacked the morale. The occupation of a country is a difficult and time-consuming process even when there is no resistance. There is first the sheer physical size of the country and the caution that must accompany imperfect intelligence about the enemy force. Then there is the matter of logistics. Soldiers must eat, and in modern warfare, gasoline must be delivered to vehicles, along with ammunition to replace what was consumed. In an armored assault, such as would be the case in Ukraine, armored vehicles, even when well maintained, have a tendency to break down. When 50 tons of moving parts encounter the road, parts may fail. And we should not underestimate the anti-tank weapons given to Ukraine. Any assault would have to be methodical and aware of possible threats, and the logistic movement itself is more vulnerable than the main thrust and just as essential. If the occupation faces resistance, movement will be slowed dramatically. If not, concern about the possibility of resistance will slow the movement. This has political ramifications, as a rapid defeat of a force precludes reinforcement by foreign powers – they would have to invade anew. An extended process of occupation increases the likelihood of foreign powers feeling pressure to intervene on behalf of the defenders – or at least the offensive force has to consider the possibility.

The fourth phase may be the most time-consuming and politically vexing. Some occupied populations accept defeat. Others do not. The best example of the military effectiveness of post-occupation resistance is Russia itself, where military and civilian forces continued resisting behind the advancing Germans, forcing the Germans to divert forces to pacification, which further alienated the population and increased resistance behind the front line. Britain in India faced this problem in the 19th century. Pacification is a political issue pivoting on the population’s loyalty to its government and the hostility of the occupiers. From the occupiers’ point of view, pacification is a double-edged sword, both limiting resistance and encouraging it through its brutal nature. It is, of course, not clear how loyal the Ukrainian people are to the government or the principle of an independent Ukraine, nor is it clear how much they dislike the Russians and how much a Russian pacification might encourage resistance.

In the case of Russia and Ukraine, the Russians cannot be certain whether the U.S. would become involved or what weapons they would use. In modern warfare it is not necessary to come within a kilometer of a tank to destroy it. Long-range missiles can attack the force and, more profitably, the logistical system that supports that force. A U.S. intervention would be the most dangerous for Russia, and Moscow can’t trust whatever Washington says, particularly if Ukrainian resistance is stiff, casualties are high and the U.S. finds itself under pressure to intervene. It is a case where the Americans themselves don’t know what they will do. In that case, what the Russians intended to be a short war could drag out, with the likelihood of successful pacification uncertain.

Military operations require the minimization of uncertainty. It is, however, in the nature of war that uncertainties multiply. The U.S. dismissed the idea of a German counteroffensive late in World War II. The Battle of the Bulge resulted. The U.S. expected North Vietnam to abandon its desire to unite Vietnam. It miscalculated. And Stalin did not expect a German invasion in 1941.

Intelligence frequently fails. Military operations suffer failures of command, communication and morale. The resistance to the invader unexpectedly surges. Allies of the defender emerge as a surprise, with military and non-military attacks. Superb sources of information from the enemy’s capital turn out to be working for the enemy. To go to war, there must be an overriding interest for which no other solution or mitigation is possible.

When we use the stages of war as a skeleton on which to drape the various phases, war becomes an unattractive idea. For the Russians, who have not conducted an extended multidivisional war in nearly 75 years, the option might seem attractive. Time hides truths. But in the case of Russia, the truth of war will take centuries to forget. The Russians remember World War II in their bones. They also remember how many things Hitler miscalculated, from Russian resistance to the nations that supported Russia. And in remembering that war, considering the model I tinkered with here and the vast unknowns, the Russians, I don’t think, will initiate another. It would make little sense

ccp

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Harris - assigned Ukraine
« Reply #318 on: February 11, 2022, 05:53:41 AM »
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kamala-harris-joe-biden-biden-administration-ukraine/2022/02/09/id/1056241/

 :-o

what we really need is the most qualified Dem for this ->

Hillary !    :wink:

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Re: Harris - assigned Ukraine
« Reply #319 on: February 11, 2022, 06:31:34 AM »
How's Kamala doing on that border issue?

She's going to Europe because Joe can't, not because she can solve anything, obviously.

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Re: Harris - assigned Ukraine
« Reply #320 on: February 11, 2022, 06:44:48 AM »
How's Kamala doing on that border issue?

She's going to Europe because Joe can't, not because she can solve anything, obviously.

Perhaps she can "Willie Brown" Putin into an agreement?

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Re: Harris - assigned Ukraine
« Reply #321 on: February 11, 2022, 06:53:11 AM »
Her mind might be valuable than her body at this point.

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Re: Harris - assigned Ukraine
« Reply #322 on: February 11, 2022, 07:04:50 AM »
Her mind might be valuable than her body at this point.

Oooof!


Well, at least she fixed the border!

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #323 on: February 11, 2022, 09:05:55 AM »
The Cackling Kommiela?

Truly we are fuct , , ,

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Re: Gen Keane on Maria's show
« Reply #326 on: February 12, 2022, 06:44:02 PM »
https://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6296309579001#sp=show-clips

Good interview, thanks.

Putin does not want to own Ukraine, just wants to accomplish certain objectives, keep NATO out.

The new Iran deal will be worse than the first, negotiated by China, Russia, Arabs and Israel don't want it.  We will again be giving them planeloads of cash to buy weapons to blow up us and allies.

At my age I hate to be wishing 4 years, this jackass's term, go by faster.

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Ukraine and the end of the Gay American Empire
« Reply #327 on: February 14, 2022, 09:24:32 AM »
https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=26699

The End Of Empire
Posted on February 14, 2022
Note: The Monday Taki post is up. The subject of it and today’s post is the rather bizarre crisis in Europe. Of course, Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door for those needing audio stimulation. Much of it is about the situation in Europe.

The question that has not been given much consideration over the last few decades is how exactly will the Global American Empire end? All empires come to an end, but not all of them end the same. Usually, they dissolve into their constituent parts like we saw with the Soviet Union. This may or may not bring with it a spasm of violence, but the unnatural combination eventually returns to its nature. What makes each empire unique is its birth and its death.

Like every empire before it, the Global American Empire will end. This may be what we are seeing with the current crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Russia is well past the dissolution of the Soviet Empire. Europe has also evolved past the old arrangements made necessary by the Cold War. The only player stuck in the past is the Global American Empire, which is carrying on like it is 1960. We are now seeing the hints of the end for the American empire in Europe.

The starting place is the fact that the stuff coming from Washington is so bizarre that not even the Ukrainians understand it. The rhetoric has gone well beyond the normal sort of moralizing that has distinguished the American empire. Washington and now London have conjured a reality in which the Russians are ready to launch into Ukraine while the Russians and Ukrainians are happy to find a peaceful solution. The whole thing is making Washington look a bit nuts.

All of this happening against the reality that if the Russians want to invade Ukraine there is nothing NATO can do about it. If the Russians wanted to move onto Berlin there is not much NATO could do to stop them. Over time, the West would be able to rally and cripple the Russians economically, then roll them back militarily, but in the short term everyone gets that NATO is a paper tiger. It is also a pointless vestige from a bygone era that should have been scrapped a generation ago.

This is one entry point into the crisis. The Germans want to finish Nord Stream 2 and build closer economic ties with Russia. The Russians want to restore their ancient relationship with Western Europe. They will not accept the American conditions that they must embrace the religion of the West. There will be no rainbows and transsexuals in the Russian culture. There will be no scenes of Russian soldiers walking around in pumps claiming to be sorry for their ancestors.

The Germans and the French seem to be ready to make the deal with the Russians and begin a new era for both sides. The Russians can maintain their traditional model for organizing themselves and Europe will begin to normalize economic relations with the rest of Eurasia. This leaves little room for the Global American Empire, which is based on an assertion that there is only one moral way to organize a society. This potential new arrangement is a rebuke of the very idea of empire.

Another entry point into viewing the current crisis as a stage in the dissolution of the Global American Empire is in the reaction itself. Even the American media has lost track of how many times the Biden people have claimed an invasion is imminent. It feels like it is a weekly thing now. The State Department swears the tanks are revving their engines and then nothing happens. European leaders have to be wondering if the empire is losing its grip on reality.

The hysteria could very well be the only thing left. Again, if Russian draws the line on NATO expansion and takes over Ukraine, there is very little Washington can do about it other than make a lot of noise. The promise of crippling economic sanctions is as ridiculous as the rest of the bellowing. Europe needs to buy important stuff from Russia in order to exist. Germany and France will go along with superficial stuff to please Washington, but they are not committing suicide over Ukraine.

What we may be entering is a final phase of the Global American Empire in which conflicting realities create a lot of friction. One reality is that America’s dominion over Europe was always unnatural for both sides. In the Cold War it was seen as a necessity, so it was a tolerable contradiction. Those conditions have not existed for over a generation now and reality is reasserting itself. Western Europe will be dominated by France and Germany and Eastern Europe by Russia.

Another set of conflicting realities is that the heritage stock of America never wanted to be a major player in world affairs. The sales pitch by the imperial leaders was always based on this assumed reluctance. The Global American Empire was a necessity born out of war and tragedy. That necessity is long over and yet the managerial elite of the empire insists on maintaining the empire. Meanwhile the public is dealing with cultural and economic collapse.

There has never been a time when the average American has felt more divorced from his government than now. The guy the empire counts on to wave the flag and respond to war drums is not sure which side to support. This is one of those unspoken truths about this Ukraine affair. The reservoir of patriotism is now dry among the cohort of Americans who have always been the most patriotic. The response from these people over Ukraine is a shrug or maybe a wry smile.

This may be what the end empire is like from the inside. We will have spasms of bellowing and shouting from Washington, but the world will slowly crawl out from under the shadow of Washington. Meanwhile, domestic politics will grow increasingly untenable, with populist revolt replacing electoral organizing. The system simply stops working as the reason for it to keep working no longer makes sense. The end of empire is a million small breakdowns in the system.

G M

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Re: Ukraine and the end of the Gay American Empire
« Reply #328 on: February 14, 2022, 10:00:28 AM »
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/02/14/speed-wobble/#more-260178


https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=26699

The End Of Empire
Posted on February 14, 2022
Note: The Monday Taki post is up. The subject of it and today’s post is the rather bizarre crisis in Europe. Of course, Sunday Thoughts is up behind the green door for those needing audio stimulation. Much of it is about the situation in Europe.

The question that has not been given much consideration over the last few decades is how exactly will the Global American Empire end? All empires come to an end, but not all of them end the same. Usually, they dissolve into their constituent parts like we saw with the Soviet Union. This may or may not bring with it a spasm of violence, but the unnatural combination eventually returns to its nature. What makes each empire unique is its birth and its death.

Like every empire before it, the Global American Empire will end. This may be what we are seeing with the current crisis in Europe over Ukraine. Russia is well past the dissolution of the Soviet Empire. Europe has also evolved past the old arrangements made necessary by the Cold War. The only player stuck in the past is the Global American Empire, which is carrying on like it is 1960. We are now seeing the hints of the end for the American empire in Europe.

The starting place is the fact that the stuff coming from Washington is so bizarre that not even the Ukrainians understand it. The rhetoric has gone well beyond the normal sort of moralizing that has distinguished the American empire. Washington and now London have conjured a reality in which the Russians are ready to launch into Ukraine while the Russians and Ukrainians are happy to find a peaceful solution. The whole thing is making Washington look a bit nuts.

All of this happening against the reality that if the Russians want to invade Ukraine there is nothing NATO can do about it. If the Russians wanted to move onto Berlin there is not much NATO could do to stop them. Over time, the West would be able to rally and cripple the Russians economically, then roll them back militarily, but in the short term everyone gets that NATO is a paper tiger. It is also a pointless vestige from a bygone era that should have been scrapped a generation ago.

This is one entry point into the crisis. The Germans want to finish Nord Stream 2 and build closer economic ties with Russia. The Russians want to restore their ancient relationship with Western Europe. They will not accept the American conditions that they must embrace the religion of the West. There will be no rainbows and transsexuals in the Russian culture. There will be no scenes of Russian soldiers walking around in pumps claiming to be sorry for their ancestors.

The Germans and the French seem to be ready to make the deal with the Russians and begin a new era for both sides. The Russians can maintain their traditional model for organizing themselves and Europe will begin to normalize economic relations with the rest of Eurasia. This leaves little room for the Global American Empire, which is based on an assertion that there is only one moral way to organize a society. This potential new arrangement is a rebuke of the very idea of empire.

Another entry point into viewing the current crisis as a stage in the dissolution of the Global American Empire is in the reaction itself. Even the American media has lost track of how many times the Biden people have claimed an invasion is imminent. It feels like it is a weekly thing now. The State Department swears the tanks are revving their engines and then nothing happens. European leaders have to be wondering if the empire is losing its grip on reality.

The hysteria could very well be the only thing left. Again, if Russian draws the line on NATO expansion and takes over Ukraine, there is very little Washington can do about it other than make a lot of noise. The promise of crippling economic sanctions is as ridiculous as the rest of the bellowing. Europe needs to buy important stuff from Russia in order to exist. Germany and France will go along with superficial stuff to please Washington, but they are not committing suicide over Ukraine.

What we may be entering is a final phase of the Global American Empire in which conflicting realities create a lot of friction. One reality is that America’s dominion over Europe was always unnatural for both sides. In the Cold War it was seen as a necessity, so it was a tolerable contradiction. Those conditions have not existed for over a generation now and reality is reasserting itself. Western Europe will be dominated by France and Germany and Eastern Europe by Russia.

Another set of conflicting realities is that the heritage stock of America never wanted to be a major player in world affairs. The sales pitch by the imperial leaders was always based on this assumed reluctance. The Global American Empire was a necessity born out of war and tragedy. That necessity is long over and yet the managerial elite of the empire insists on maintaining the empire. Meanwhile the public is dealing with cultural and economic collapse.

There has never been a time when the average American has felt more divorced from his government than now. The guy the empire counts on to wave the flag and respond to war drums is not sure which side to support. This is one of those unspoken truths about this Ukraine affair. The reservoir of patriotism is now dry among the cohort of Americans who have always been the most patriotic. The response from these people over Ukraine is a shrug or maybe a wry smile.

This may be what the end empire is like from the inside. We will have spasms of bellowing and shouting from Washington, but the world will slowly crawl out from under the shadow of Washington. Meanwhile, domestic politics will grow increasingly untenable, with populist revolt replacing electoral organizing. The system simply stops working as the reason for it to keep working no longer makes sense. The end of empire is a million small breakdowns in the system.

DougMacG

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Joe Biden policies paid for the Ukraine crisis
« Reply #329 on: February 16, 2022, 07:50:41 AM »
Gas at the pump here is now double what I paid under Trump.  Natural gas to heat our homes already doubled and has gone up more with the 'surprisingly' harsh winter.  World oil prices have more than doubled.  Not from the Covid lockdown lows but from the pre-covid times of rapid economic growth.  D

More than anything, this is the result of Joe Biden being president.

Guess who is empowered by that and by American weakness in general?  Vladimir Putin, whose otherwise tenuous economy depends on the world price and scarcity of oil and gas.  Biden closed a pipeline in his first minute in office, shutdown drilling on federal lands and is basically cancelling the industry to the best of his ability with all the levers of government.  The world's biggest producer (US) has stopped much of its production, stopped exporting, and can barely supply its own pumps and consumers.

The whole Ukraine thing, centered around words and troop movements, is likely a head fake by Putin designed to get whatever he wants from Ukraine and from the West.  It costs money to move those troops around and to fire up those old tanks.  Guess what?  They have plenty of money now after being starved by the Trump policies, and they have plenty of oil and gas.  Thanks to Joe Biden and those with TDS who supported him, Putin is back in power, like a kid in an unattended candy store.

$100 Billion in military arms and equipment were left in Afghanistan, given to the Taliban.  We won't be using those to stop him.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #330 on: February 16, 2022, 06:50:54 PM »
February 16, 2022
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Daily Memo: Ukraine Cyberattack, EU Funding Dispute
Kyiv experienced one of the largest cyberattacks in its history.
By: Geopolitical Futures

Cyberattack. Ukrainian authorities said state-owned banks and websites were targeted on Tuesday in one of the largest cyberattacks in the country’s history. Ukraine’s Center for Information Security suggested that Russia may have been behind the attack. Meanwhile, Ukrainian law enforcement conducted several exercises over the weekend to plan a response to the possible seizure of administrative buildings and police departments within 30 kilometers (19 miles) of Crimea, the country’s internal affairs minister said on Wednesday

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Everyone here should try to have this level of training
« Reply #331 on: February 16, 2022, 11:03:29 PM »

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Ukraine, Biden Administration Accuses Putin of Lying
« Reply #332 on: February 17, 2022, 08:10:33 AM »
Biden Administration Accuses Putin of Lying about troop withdrawals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60407010

I find this disheartening. 

Biden Administration also doubled Russia's national income by retreating from the global oil and gas markets.  Thank you Joe Biden, buffoon.  Why would you do that if they are warmongering liars?  Makes no sense, or did it save the planet - only to have it ruled by China or Russia?

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #333 on: February 17, 2022, 09:40:08 AM »
so far the US has called Putin's bluff.

ball in Putin's court...........




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2/18 update
« Reply #335 on: February 18, 2022, 11:41:18 AM »

Crafty_Dog

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Stratfor on Donbass
« Reply #336 on: February 18, 2022, 01:50:15 PM »
GRAPHICS
The Donbas Conflict in Context
2 MIN READFeb 18, 2022 | 21:06 GMT





A Ukrainian soldier stands guard near debris after the reported shelling of a kindergarten in the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 17, 2022.
A soldier stands guard near debris after the reported shelling of a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine on Feb. 17, 2022.

(ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

In recent days, Russia has clearly signaled its willingness to escalate the eight-year conflict in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. On Feb. 18, a day after Russian-backed separatists shelled a nursery in the government-controlled territory, authorities in the two self-proclaimed republics in Donbas ordered a mass evacuation of civilians. The evacuations will make it easier for Russia — which now has an estimated 169,000-190,000 troops stationed near Ukraine — to move equipment and personnel into the war-torn region. This raises the probability of additional cease-fire violations and false-flag attacks as Moscow tries to use the threat of an invasion to gain significant concessions from Kyiv and the West.


Since 2014, Ukrainian forces have been battling Russian-backed separatists in an area in southeastern Ukraine known as the Donbas. On Feb. 15, Russia's parliament approved a non-binding resolution to formally recognize the region’s self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics as independent countries. The vote has spurred controversy, as such a designation would free Russia to openly send troops and weapons to war-torn Donbas. It would also end the Minsk agreements, which see Ukraine regaining control of its eastern border in exchange for giving the separatist regions more autonomy.

The separatists in charge of eastern Ukraine’s two breakaway republics claim sovereignty over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (which effectively span the Donbas region), but they actually control a smaller section between the Russian border and the region’s two major cities. These two separatist-controlled areas are de facto Russian-occupied, as Russians make up the majority of soldiers in both republics. But Moscow denies it has troops in Donbas, claiming these soldiers are instead volunteers and mercenaries.

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GPF: Update
« Reply #337 on: February 20, 2022, 12:31:32 AM »
February 19, 2022
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An Update on Eastern Ukraine
The following is a roundup of events over the past few days.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Editor’s note: The following is a roundup of events over the past few days.

Earlier this week, Russia took steps to de-escalate the situation on its border with Ukraine, announcing the end of the “active phase” of military exercises and posting a video showing their return of troops from the border to their normal locations. Moscow also said that negotiations with the West would continue. For its part, Ukraine made sure to say that the likelihood of military clashes was, but only a few days later, things started heating up in Donbas.

What Happened

The Donetsk People’s Republic said about 600 shells were fired over the past 24 hours.
The head of the Luhansk People’s Republic signed a decree on a general mobilization . DPR leaders followed suit. The head of the LPR signed a decree on the transfer of state bodies, enterprises and organizations to wartime conditions
On Feb. 19, the DPR  was evacuated.
 A group of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia flies to the Rostov region to organize the reception of citizens of the DPR and LPR. A state of emergency is imposed in Rostov.
About the Evacuation

Some 700,000 people are ready to leave the area, according to a statement from the DPR, The evacuation is conducted by the Ministry of Emergency Situations in coordination with local cities and regions.
Russia has not confirmed the evacuation. According to a source at TASS news agency, there are temporary accommodation centers for only 10,000 places and they will be deployed in the Rostov region in the near future.
The largest companies in Yakutia are ready to accept only 1,500 refugees. Alrosa, Elgaugol and Kolmar are ready to help the evacuees, including with employment.
The deputy head of the Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations osaidefugees from Donbass can be sent to seven regions of Russia
Bottom Line: Either the DPR is providing incorrect information about the number of refugees to raise noise, or the Kremlin provide incorrect information because it doesn’t want to show that DPR residents are leaving en masse.
On Military Operations

Still, it seems that Russia still doesn’t want to start on outright war. The number of troops on the border with Ukraine are less than the number of troops in the Ukrainian army, and Russia has not prepared any additional reserves. The West is ill prepared too, judging by a still modest troop presence, and military supplies from the United States and NATO have dropped sharply since Feb. 16.
Russia wants to convey a sense that its moves are a symmetrical response to the evacuation of Western embassies and citizens from Kiev.
Ukraine notes that the situation in the east of Ukraine is under control. The president went  to the Munich conference today.
Donbass is ready for a constructive dialogue in the contact group on specific issues and with specific proposals
Area behind the front lines are not panicked. Stores are full of goods and products, and managers say vendors will carry groceries without interruption.
The situation in the front-line settlements from where the evacuation is taking place (given by the telegrams of the Donbass channel) is also not very similar to martial law
Stray Notes

In the village of Luganskoye, the night passed quietly.

Kalinovka, Molochny, Sanzharovka were  under fire. The Ukrainian army fired 120-mm mortars, grenade launchers and small arms. Though this is somewhat commonplace, the villagers are worried. The first bus left for evacuation yesterday.
In Yasinovataya, Things were relatively quiet. Residents are trying to send out children and the elderly as much as possible.In Panteleymonovka, damage was sustained by shelling from the Ukrainian army.Heavy artillery was heard in Makiivka.
Dokuchaevsk. “It was noisy at night.but  Everything works in the city: shops, market. Communications are working. There is no panic."

Three residential buildings were damaged in Zaitsevo

U.S. President Joe Biden, citing intelligence, said that Vladimir Putin had decided on a new invasion of Ukraine and it would begin in the coming days under the pretext of genocide in Donbass.


ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #339 on: February 21, 2022, 08:32:05 AM »
- Ukraine legalizes BTC,
- Bulgarian exchange for crypto starts functioning
- Huge BTC buys happening in Poland, which borders Ukraine
- Russian parliament is debating legalizing crypto...alternative to SWIFT
- Putin has indicated decision will be made today..

It seems to me that 2 new Republics may be coming up ....

ccp

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #340 on: February 21, 2022, 09:41:53 AM »
Like I said putin is bluffing:
https://populistpress.com/the-biggest-war-in-europe-since-1945/

 :-o

would it not have simply been easier if NATO pledged not to include Ukraine?

Is not that what Putin wanted?

So now many people may die because we had to make a stand for something that was superfluous

Biden the terrible.........

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #341 on: February 21, 2022, 09:52:22 AM »
Finland has said it may well apply to NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #342 on: February 21, 2022, 10:19:34 AM »
Got to wag the dog to distract from the implosion of the US.


Like I said putin is bluffing:
https://populistpress.com/the-biggest-war-in-europe-since-1945/

 :-o

would it not have simply been easier if NATO pledged not to include Ukraine?

Is not that what Putin wanted?

So now many people may die because we had to make a stand for something that was superfluous

Biden the terrible.........

DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #343 on: February 21, 2022, 11:11:42 AM »
Got to wag the dog to distract from the implosion of the US.

“What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?”
    - Clinton’s Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Colin Powell

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #344 on: February 21, 2022, 11:56:38 AM »
Got to wag the dog to distract from the implosion of the US.

“What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?”
    - Clinton’s Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to Colin Powell

Back before the US military was fake and gay...



DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine, [Finland]
« Reply #347 on: February 21, 2022, 12:24:43 PM »
Finland has said it may well apply to NATO if Russia invades Ukraine.

Good luck breaking ties with Russia:

% of gas supply from Russia
north macedonia: 100%
finland: 94%
bulgaria: 77%
slovakia: 70%
germany: 49%
italy: 46%
poland: 40%
france: 24%

DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine, NATO
« Reply #348 on: February 21, 2022, 12:32:50 PM »
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMCb6qrWUAEYaQX?format=png&name=medium



1.  I have the feeling that Putin's no NATO requirement for Ukraine also means no other defense association with them, in terms of successor organizations for NATO.

2.  The expanding 'backyard' argument:  If Russia takes control of it's first tier neighbors like Ukraine, guess what happens next?  Another layer of countries become Russia's first tier neighbors, under an even more credible threat.  For that layer, we ARE committed to coming to their defense?

A complicated web we weave ...
« Last Edit: February 21, 2022, 12:35:50 PM by DougMacG »

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #349 on: February 21, 2022, 05:00:52 PM »
- Ukraine legalizes BTC,
- Bulgarian exchange for crypto starts functioning
- Huge BTC buys happening in Poland, which borders Ukraine
- Russian parliament is debating legalizing crypto...alternative to SWIFT
- Putin has indicated decision will be made today..

It seems to me that 2 new Republics may be coming up ....

Its a done deal, Congrats Putin, well played. Fitting that he did this on US President's day. Hopefully, Biden has finished his ice cream by now.
Russia will take care of the defense of the 2 republiks and later when things calm down, annex them.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2022, 05:38:34 PM by ya »