Author Topic: Ukraine  (Read 224214 times)

Crafty_Dog

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GPF: The role of nuclear power in the Ukraine War
« Reply #550 on: April 04, 2022, 06:30:56 AM »
April 4, 2022
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The Role of Nuclear Power in the Ukraine War
It’s an important source of Russian leverage.
By: Ridvan Bari Urcosta

Russia’s ultimate goal in invading Ukraine is to bring as much of the country as possible under Moscow’s influence, or, absent that, to pry it away from the West. One of the more overlooked strategies to that end is to deprive Ukraine of traditional energy sources in the central and eastern parts of the country. Moscow is particularly keen to take control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and uranium deposits.

Put simply, Russia wants to beat the West to the punch of monopolizing Ukraine’s nuclear industry. Doing so, it hopes, will prevent Ukraine from ever being a nuclear power and, as important, keep Ukraine dependent on Russia for energy needs, creating new options for power sourcing in areas of Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine’s east.

Nuclear Inheritance

It wasn’t that long ago that Ukraine's nuclear weapons potential was greater than Britain’s and France’s. It housed the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, designed specifically to target the United States. In the 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, Kyiv pledged to become a permanently neutral state that does not participate in military blocs and adheres to three nuclear-free principles. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, it pledged to give up its weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S., the U.K. and Russia. This was no small thing: At the time, the government in Kyiv possessed nearly 2,000 nuclear warheads and some 2,500 tactical warheads – all holdovers from the Soviet era.

Indeed, Ukraine possesses, at least theoretically, all the requisite institutions to restore its nuclear power status. It inherited massive scientific and technological research and development from the Soviet Union. Ukraine can potentially produce rocket launcher systems, solid propellant engines, rockets, and fuel and necessary software for them. The R&D center of nuclear studies in Kharkiv has an experimental nuclear facility. (Russia accused Ukraine of creating enriched uranium there.) Until recently, Ukraine has been operating four other plants: the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant, the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Chernobyl.

Unsurprisingly, Ukraine relied heavily on nuclear power for its energy consumption. Before the war, the share of nuclear power was between 40 percent and 51 percent, and 27 percent came from thermal power stations located mostly in central and eastern Ukraine. Until the invasion, Ukraine still received nuclear fuel for its power plants from Russia. (Spent fuel is also problematic; Kyiv sent its waste to various Russian facilities.) Ukraine has reserves of nuclear fuel that will last until at least the beginning of next year.

It’s little wonder, then, that Ukraine has started to reconsider its stance on nuclear weaponry. Discussions to that ended started when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, but they never got far. The invasion of the rest of Ukraine has revitalized the issue. At a recent conference in Munich, for example, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that if the Budapest Memorandum guarantor states won’t convene and guarantee Ukraine's security and territorial integrity, then Kyiv will become a nuclear power again.

Access to uranium isn’t a problem. Ukraine has some of the largest reserves in the world – about 1.8 percent of global deposits. Ironically, only a few months before the invasion, Kyiv announced plans to produce enough uranium to meet its nuclear energy needs. It was as much a political decision as an economic one: Kyiv needed to wean itself off its fuel dependence on Russia, and it had a hard time affording oil and gas for its thermal power plants. More, after the war in Donbas in 2014-15, Kyiv lost access to its primary coal mines. To offset these losses, Ukraine diversified its energy resources, eventually including nuclear. In 2021, Ukraine planned to start the process of domestically producing zirconium dioxide – an important component of nuclear fuel.

Ukraine’s decision is in keeping with global trends. Nuclear energy is having somewhat of a renaissance as many countries consider it the ideal response to the global energy crisis. Countries with large uranium mines may be able to provide their own energy. Russia wants in on the party and is thus trying to enhance its footprint in nuclear-generated electricity at Ukraine’s expense. Russia is already a leader in enriched uranium production, and if it were to wrest control of Ukraine, it would certainly restore uranium mining and production.

Leverage

Of Ukraine’s five nuclear plants, Russia gained control of Zaporozhe and Chernobyl (though Russian troops recently abandoned the one at Chernobyl) and is approaching the South Ukraine plant. So far, this has not changed the energy balance in the country. All produced electricity from these two plants continues to be a part of the Ukrainian energy system.

Even so, it became clear at the outset of the war that because the shortest route for Russian forces to Kyiv went through Chernobyl, Russia would occupy the region and would, according to Ukraine, initiate different types of provocations and blackmail the West with the threat of nuclear disaster. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that though it is concerned about Chernobyl and Zaporozhe, both are still “operating safely and securely.” (The agency recently said it plans to visit Zaporozhe.)

But it’s unclear how long that can last. Russian forces entered the Zaporozhe nuclear power plant on March 4 after clashes with the Ukrainian army. Both stations are now operated by Russian specialists from Rosatom, together with Ukrainian personnel. For Moscow, it would be dangerous for Ukraine’s entire nuclear network to fall into the hands of the West. But, as important, the network is a valuable source of leverage, especially in the face of imminent defeat. After all, what’s to stop Russia from destroying it on its way out?

The future of the rest of Ukraine’s nuclear plants is uncertain, but it is clear that in the upcoming weeks Russia will try to reach and occupy the South Ukraine plant. Anticipating as much, Ukraine has already fortified and reinforced the area. It’s hard to imagine that Russia will try to attack western Ukraine, where two nuclear plants are located, but if worse comes to worst, Russia won’t shy from destroying them or using them against the West to soften the blow of a defeat.


Crafty_Dog

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D1
« Reply #552 on: April 07, 2022, 08:31:34 AM »
The latest Pentagon assessment: Russia's northern tactical retreat appears to be complete. Moscow's forces near Kyiv and Chernihiv "have completed their withdrawal from the area to re-consolidate and refit in Belarus and in Russia," a senior defense official told reporters Wednesday.

And the southern port city of "Mariupol remains isolated, but it has not been secured by the Russians despite some open-source reporting to the contrary of Ukrainians surrendering Mariupol," the official said.

But overall, Russia is still very much committed to this invasion. Of its "nearly 130 [battalion tactical groups] that they applied to this invasion, we still assess that they have, you know, a good many inside, you know, more than 80." As for what's next, the U.S. defense official said, "Our assessment is that they won't want to spend too much time on refit and resupply because they have made a very public show of saying that they're going to, you know, prioritize their efforts on the Donbas region."

Why the intense interest in Donbas? Consider this rail map of Ukraine; it hints at the industrial output stretching out of Donbas. There's also this bit of history from the Crisis Group:

"Under the Soviet Union, Donbas was an industrial powerhouse, producing disproportionate shares of the Union's coal and steel. Its population consisted largely of first- and second-generation migrants sent from other Soviet republics to staff its mines and factories. The region thus earned a reputation as one of the most 'Sovietised' parts of the Union—a place where pre-existing identities, languages and patterns of life had been supplanted by a multicultural society held together by common pride in industry, with Russian as the lingua franca."
On the diplomatic front, Moscow is newly upset by Ukraine's desire to negotiate over Crimea and the eastern Donbas, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in a statement Thursday. During the last round of talks in Turkey, "the Ukrainian delegation proposed a 15-year negotiating process for Crimea, the peninsula that Russia seized in 2014," the New York Times reports. And this week, Belarus's own autocratic leader insisted future peace talks must include someone from his government, declaring, "There can be no separate deals behind Belarus's back."

Crafty_Dog

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Rail map
« Reply #553 on: April 07, 2022, 08:32:22 AM »


DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine, The war is over
« Reply #555 on: April 08, 2022, 11:25:17 AM »
Small news item, the war is over.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-08/kremlin-says-russias-operation-in-ukraine-could-end-in-foreseeable-future

Rather than force Ukraine to agree to it terms. Russia will (eventually) fall back to keeping the areas it already controls.

Until the next war...

We taught them almost nothing but have the opportunity to be more prepared next time.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #556 on: April 08, 2022, 12:18:13 PM »
Hold in place means that Russia has seized major Uke oil & gas deposits (including in the Black Sea), the mouth of the Dnieper, devastated a goodly % of Uke infrastructure, dispersed millions of Ukes (25% of the population?) and stands ready to continue when convenient.  If they seize Odessa before signing off for now, then the Ukes are landlocked. 

Will Ukes fight again down the road after seeing these results from this round?

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #557 on: April 09, 2022, 07:17:24 AM »
Almost like Russia is winning...

Unpossible, per our professional journalists...

Hold in place means that Russia has seized major Uke oil & gas deposits (including in the Black Sea), the mouth of the Dnieper, devastated a goodly % of Uke infrastructure, dispersed millions of Ukes (25% of the population?) and stands ready to continue when convenient.  If they seize Odessa before signing off for now, then the Ukes are landlocked. 

Will Ukes fight again down the road after seeing these results from this round?

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #558 on: April 10, 2022, 04:51:40 PM »
May 9 is Russia's Victory Day parade...they need to show a clear victory.

G M

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Ukraine and the Biden Crime Family
« Reply #559 on: April 11, 2022, 03:20:56 PM »
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/the-riptide/

The Riptide
These dangerous currents amount to a huge riptide in global events that will carry many people and whole societies out to sea….


Have you stopped to ask yourself: what exactly are the USA’s interests in Ukraine? The answer: just about none whatsoever if you discount all the effort and capital expended there the past decade to make it a problem for our designated hobgoblin, Russia. During these eight years, since the Maidan “revolution,” Ukraine was an ATM for “Joe Biden’s” family, an inconvenient embarrassment for the US State Department, which has not been able to cover it up.

In fact, their first attempt to do so — the seditious maneuvers leading to Trump impeachment no. 1 — only shined a light onto the dishonest activities of US Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch and her State Department colleagues, in collusion with George Soros’s Atlantic Council, to conceal their involvement in Ukraine’s corrupt political affairs. This gang included agent provocateurs rotating in-and-out of government such as Jake Sullivan and Antony Blinken, now the two top foreign policy officers in “Joe Biden’s” government (National Security Advisor and Secretary of State).

Donald Trump enabled more mischief by sending what he proudly called “lethal aid” in the form of Stinger missiles and other arms to Ukraine in a foolish attempt to out-hawk his predecessor, Mr. Obama, whose main weapon against Ukraine was Vice-president Biden and his grifting family. Poor Mr. Trump apparently had to do something to prove that he was not “Putin’s puppet,” and that something was to give Ukraine tacit permission to bombard the breakaway Donbas region on Russia’s border. Was that supposed to not have consequences?

Throughout all this, NATO has acted as a conduit for arming and training a 400,000-troop Ukrainian army, a violation of several formal agreements between Russia and the West. NATO, otherwise, does not have the will, or even the means, to engage militarily with Russia. And America, at the head of NATO, has so far refrained from starting World War Three by way of sending US troops or war-planes into Ukraine. So, Russia has gone about the plodding business of neutralizing Ukraine’s trouble-seeking military and rearranging the map so that Ukraine won’t be able to act as a proxy antagonist in America’s ill-conceived campaign to destroy Mr. Putin and his country.

The operation will probably end this month. My guess is that Mr. Zelensky will be allowed to remain president of what remains on the map, minus Donbas and the region along the Black Sea coast from Mariupol to Odessa. Mr. Zelensky will not have a functioning military to make trouble with. Other patches of Western Ukraine may be distributed among Poland, Moldova, Romania, and Hungary, leaving a large rump of Ukraine between Lvov and the Dnieper River devoted mostly to the growing of wheat. A stable, agricultural Ukraine will be a benefit to a hungry world, while it will no longer be in a position to launch hostilities or be of much use as a money-laundering facility. In short, with some luck, Ukraine will cease to be a threat to world peace.

Ukraine may have been “Joe Biden’s” last opportunity to screw things up on the world scene. As the military conflict resolves, Ukraine can’t be used by the White House as a shield to divert America’s attention from the political cancer of Biden family corruption, and the systemic illness of the nation’s institutions. Merrick Garland may not be able to contain the open case against Hunter Biden to mere rinky-dink tax violations — and if he tries to limit the US Attorneys in charge of the case, he will be setting himself up for an obstruction of justice rap some months from now. The laptop is out now, too many people have copies of the hard drive, and some are working diligently to make the mess of it more easily searchable. So, expect much more to come.

It won’t be easy for the Democratic Party to get rid of “Joe Biden.” Nobody can feature Kamala Harris in the oval office, and were she to somehow gracefully remove herself from the scene, next-in-line would be Nancy Pelosi who, in addition to being long-in-the-tooth, seems to be literally drunk half the time in her public appearances. And behind her: Patrick Leahy, Senate President Pro Tem, who is nearly as senile and incoherent as “Joe Biden.”

Lots of other spooky things are churning meanwhile in the zeitgeist. Overnight, with his blundering sanctions, “Joe Biden” killed the little credibility left in the shreds of Bretton Woods and gave a green light for Russia to start a world-wide move to gold-backed currencies. That could easily turn the current US dollar inflation from an annualized 8 percent to a runaway hyperinflation, where prices double in weeks or days. It’s becoming ever clearer that special counsel John Durham means business and many a swamp creature must be quivering in its burrow awaiting indictment. The controversy over the 2020 election will prove to be not as over as many have hoped and imagined. And we await developments on the after-effects of all those vaxxes and boosters carried out all over Western Civ. These dangerous currents amount to a huge riptide in global events that will carry many people and whole societies out to sea.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2022, 03:51:53 PM by G M »

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #560 on: April 12, 2022, 08:04:29 AM »
Impressive piece of advocacy there, and several strong points made, but unfortunately IMHO it blows right by dealing with the notion that fomenting breakaway regions (not for the first time see e.g. Georgia) and invasion of neighboring countries is OK.  On this important point it is entirely too glib.

Crafty_Dog

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G M

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Crafty_Dog

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Gen Keane on the fight for Donbass
« Reply #564 on: April 20, 2022, 09:53:56 AM »

G M

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Billions of dollars in cutting edge weapons
« Reply #565 on: April 21, 2022, 08:00:16 AM »

DougMacG

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Ukraine New Word:рашизм means ruscism or Russian Fascism
« Reply #566 on: April 23, 2022, 11:17:04 AM »
NY Times.com:
Russian Fascism.
The aggressor in this war keeps trying to push back toward a past as it never happened, toward nonsensical and necrophiliac accounts of history. Russia must conquer Ukraine, Vladimir Putin says, because of a baptism a thousand years ago, or because of bloodshed during World War II. But Russian myths of empire cannot contain the imagination of the Ukrainian victims of a new war. National identity is about living people, and the values and the futures they imagine and choose A nation exists insofar as it makes new things, and a national language lives by making new words.

The new word “рашизм” (rough translation: ‘ruscism” or Russian fascism) is a useful conceptualization of Putin’s worldview. Far more than Western analysts, Ukrainians have noticed the Russian tilt toward fascism in the last decade. Undistracted by Putin’s operational deployment of genocide talk, they have seen fascist practices in Russia: the cults of the leader and of the dead, the corporatist state, the mythical past, the censorship, the conspiracy theories, the centralized propaganda and now the war of destruction. Even as we rightly debate how applicable the term is to Western figures and parties, we have tended to overlook the central example of fascism’s revival, which is the Putin regime in the Russian Federation.

G M

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Re: Ukraine New Word:рашизм means ruscism or Russian Fascism
« Reply #567 on: April 23, 2022, 11:31:01 AM »
They still miss Stalin. At last the Walter Duranty Times found a Russian strongman they don’t like.


NY Times.com:
Russian Fascism.
The aggressor in this war keeps trying to push back toward a past as it never happened, toward nonsensical and necrophiliac accounts of history. Russia must conquer Ukraine, Vladimir Putin says, because of a baptism a thousand years ago, or because of bloodshed during World War II. But Russian myths of empire cannot contain the imagination of the Ukrainian victims of a new war. National identity is about living people, and the values and the futures they imagine and choose A nation exists insofar as it makes new things, and a national language lives by making new words.

The new word “рашизм” (rough translation: ‘ruscism” or Russian fascism) is a useful conceptualization of Putin’s worldview. Far more than Western analysts, Ukrainians have noticed the Russian tilt toward fascism in the last decade. Undistracted by Putin’s operational deployment of genocide talk, they have seen fascist practices in Russia: the cults of the leader and of the dead, the corporatist state, the mythical past, the censorship, the conspiracy theories, the centralized propaganda and now the war of destruction. Even as we rightly debate how applicable the term is to Western figures and parties, we have tended to overlook the central example of fascism’s revival, which is the Putin regime in the Russian Federation.

Crafty_Dog

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Uke-CA Nat Guard connection
« Reply #568 on: April 23, 2022, 01:55:38 PM »
Ukraine’s battlefield success no surprise to their National Guard trainers in U.S.
California Guard has long history training, working with Ukrainian troops




|


https://trends.newsmaxwidget.com/cl...vRzr1rcbfci0+6ZVuWWlerA9uQhrgdpvq7yfEE2&s2s=1
Ukraine's battlefield success no surprise to their National Guard trainers in U.S. - Washington Times

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Ukrainian National Guard, Armed Forces, special operations units exercise as they simulate a crisis situation in an urban settlement, in the abandoned city of Pripyat near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine, Feb. 4, 2022. When fighting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in power cuts to the critical cooling system at the closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant, some feared that spent nuclear fuel would overheat. But nuclear experts say there’s no imminent danger because time and physics are on safety's side. (AP Photo/Mykola Tymchenko) **FILE**
Ukrainian National Guard, Armed Forces, special operations units exercise as they simulate a crisis situation in an urban settlement, in the abandoned city of Pripyat near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Ukraine, Feb. 4, 2022. When fighting from Russia’s invasion ... more >

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By Mike Glenn - The Washington Times - Friday, April 22, 2022
Leaders in Kyiv began reaching out to U.S. military officials for help soon after Russia rolled into Ukraine following a tense build-up along the border that lasted several months. One of the first calls went out to the California National Guard.

For nearly 30 years following the demise of the Soviet Union, California’s soldiers have had a close working relationship with Ukraine as part of the National Guard‘s State Partnership Program. Maj. Gen. Dave Baldwin, the state’s senior officer, known as the adjutant general, has been friends with top Ukrainian military leaders for a decade, officials said.

“When the invasion started, they started receiving phone calls: ‘Hey, we’re getting attacked,’ followed by phone calls shortly later that said, ‘Hey, here’s what we need,’” recalled Army Gen. Daniel Hokanson, the chief of the National Guard Bureau who also serves on the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The State Partnership Program links former Warsaw Pact countries with a U.S. state. Ukraine drew the California National Guard in the lottery. The relationship was intended to help their forces operate more easily alongside NATO and provide guidance about the proper role of a military in a democracy.

“We initially worked on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to help them to respond to their communities [and] to help them take care of their countries,” Gen. Hokanson said recently at a session hosted by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington.



Ukraine and the California Guard have had about 1,000 different opportunities to work with each other over the past 27 years. “Over time, you continue to build on what you’ve learned,” Gen. Hokanson said.

The California Guard soldiers — many of them combat veterans with tours in Iraq and Afghanistan — trained the Ukrainians on a variety of subjects, ranging from the basics of small-unit tactics to conducting larger joint operations. They also helped Ukraine develop a capable corps of non-commissioned officers — the sergeants in any military who are crucial for accomplishing a mission.

“That makes all the difference in the world,” Gen. Hokanson said.

Many military analysts and strategic thinkers predicted the larger and more powerful Russian army would easily defeat the Ukrainians in direct combat, a misconception apparently shared by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his military aides. The California Guard troops who knew the improving quality of Ukrainian forces over the years were more confident, however. For them, the Ukrainian army’s success at blunting Russia‘s attack for nearly two months did not come as a shock.

“They said, ‘Hey, we’re not surprised they’re doing that well. We’ve trained with them and we knew how good they were,’” Gen. Hokanson said. “You’re seeing that every single day right now.”

Maj. Gen. Baldwin, the California adjutant general, told DOD News in a story last month on the California-Ukraine nexus that his long experience with Ukrainian forces led him to believe they were being badly “underestimated” by the West.

“We knew that they had radically improved their ability to do kind of Western-style military decision making,” he said. “I have been impressed, though, with their ability at the national level to work through some of the challenges we thought they still had in terms of logistics and command control.”

Ukraine’s air force, Gen. Baldwin added, was a particular bright spot.

“Our fighter pilots have been telling everyone for years that the Ukrainian Air Force is pretty good,” he said. “… “Well, the proof is in the pudding. Their Air Force is a lot better than everyone thought — except for the California Air National Guard, who knew that these guys were pretty good.”
Ukraine‘s ability to mount a nimble, adroit form of maneuver warfare stands in stark contrast to the rather stolid, heavy-handed tactics of Russia now on display, tactics that rely heavily on overwhelming artillery firepower to level cities and try to cow the opponent into submission.

“By working with [Ukraine] to establish leaders at the lowest level, really at the small-unit action level, they can seize the initiative, see an opportunity and take advantage of it,” Gen. Hokanson said. “We’re seeing that every day over there right now.”

The State Partnership Program was initially intended to guide the armies of satellite countries that had been under the thumb of the Soviet Union for decades. It has expanded dramatically since then with 93 countries linked to state National Guard contingents from all 50 states, three territories and the District of Columbia.

Ukraine‘s success on the battlefield against Russia might convince other countries to sign on with the State Partnership Program. The input from the combatant commanders — such as the heads of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; the Middle East-focused Central Command, or Southern Command for Latin America — will be crucial, Gen Hokanson said.

“We’ll maintain a very close conversation with them on where they see potential opportunities for future state partners,” he said.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.

G M

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« Last Edit: April 26, 2022, 02:14:01 AM by Crafty_Dog »

Crafty_Dog

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George Friedman: The Uke War, redefined
« Reply #570 on: April 26, 2022, 03:45:40 AM »
April 26, 2022
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The Ukraine War, Redefined
By: George Friedman

The war in Ukraine began under a faulty assumption shared by many, including the United States, that if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly. The Russians deployed their forces carelessly, without much regard for the Ukrainians. When the Russians encountered resistance against their disorganized armored and infantry forces, operating pretty much without air support, they acknowledged problems but continued to assume that the problems they faced were simply the friction of the battlefield rather than something that risked the outcome they assumed was theirs.

The United States still tended to share that view but sent supplies to Ukraine via Poland, a move meant to show that Washington was committed more to the resistance than to a belief that Russia was at risk. Moscow continued to press on three fronts: from Belarus in the north, through the Donbas in the east, and from Crimea in the south. It was a chaotic advance thanks to a lack of coordination of the fronts and the inability to supply three separate fronts simultaneously. The Russian failure was symbolized by the 40-mile backup of tanks moving south from Belarus toward Kyiv.

The most startling thing, and one likely to be studied by military historians for years to come, is that the Ukrainian resistance did not break and in many instances intensified. This led to a reevaluation by both Americans and Russians that the Ukrainians might successfully resist for an extended period of time, embarrassing the Russians so much that it would cost them badly needed credibility with partners like China. From the American point of view, Ukraine shifted from being a lost cause, in which defeat had to come gracefully, to a strategic opportunity.

The shift was made possible by Russian failures. Washington had already made what it felt was the least dangerous strategic move in waging economic and financial warfare against Moscow, and in uniting NATO to support the mission. But that doesn’t explain Russian problems on the battlefield: logistics, the inability to mount mobile warfare because of logistics, and the shortage of trained infantry. It’s why, even as Russia abandoned its armored thrust toward Kyiv from Belarus, and as it adopted a much more cautious strategy of moving against Donbas, where it already had substantial influence, and a southerly attack toward Odesa, time wasn’t on Moscow’s side.

So Russia brought in a new commander who had operated in Syria using both conventional warfare and counter-population attacks. The same tactics applied to urban areas worked but more slowly and with greater casualties to infantry than Russia could readily sustain. At this point, it became clear that Ukrainian forces were highly motivated and reasonably well trained. They could take casualties, replace them and not have their force collapse. Not so with Russia. Ukraine could very possibly fight the Russians to a stalemate that the Russians couldn’t afford militarily or politically. Given the paucity of Russian reserves, it was possible that Ukraine might force the Russians to retreat or even withdraw.

At this point, U.S. strategy shifted. Over the weekend, the U.S. secretary of state and secretary of defense went openly to Kyiv, showing disregard for Russian interception, and offered the Ukrainians a massive infusion of weapons from unmanned aerial vehicles to artillery, radar and everything else needed to arm a modern army. The fact that the arrival of these weapons via Poland would take some time showed another degree of confidence, which was that the fighting would be going on in the weeks and months that delivery would take. When we look at the full array of weapons, we can glimpse that the U.S. is now arming a force capable of going on the offense.

The war has always involved the U.S. and Russia, but in a sense, it is now an open duel between them. The Russians must provide troops and equipment. The U.S. is providing equipment but not troops. The American bet is that Ukraine can field more and better-trained forces armed with advanced weapons, while Russia will have to struggle to replace its losses. It is far easier for the United States to produce and ship weapons than it is for the Russians to sustain losses.

This puts Russia in a difficult position. Given the weapons flows announced and the other weapons likely to be supplied, it must try to end the war in the next month or so, only against a much better-armed and motivated Ukrainian force. And having failed to break them so far, the direction of the war is going against the Russians.

The visit by two senior cabinet officials, and the very open listing of at least part of the arms shipments, is clearly intended to signal to Moscow that not only will it not defeat the Ukrainians but Ukraine might force Russia from the battlefield altogether. Obviously, a Russian preemptive attack is now a possibility, but an obvious strategy for Ukraine is to hold, retreat and rearm. Perhaps the Americans are also hoping that this will force the Russians to the negotiating table. That would be the lesser risk. Certainly, the Russians, whose intelligence likely knew this was coming, will have to recalibrate a war that was never really calibrated.

Crafty_Dog

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To get to Moldova, Russkis must take Odesa
« Reply #571 on: April 26, 2022, 02:06:01 PM »
The blasts were reported in Moldova's breakaway region of Trans-Dniester.
By: Geopolitical Futures
Moldova on edge. Moldovan President Maia Sandu is convening a meeting of the country’s Security Council following explosions in the Russian-backed breakaway region of Trans-Dniester over the past two days. According to Trans-Dniester’s Interior Ministry, Tuesday's explosions hit communication towers that were used to broadcast Russian radio. On Monday, Trans-Dniester’s Ministry of State Security headquarters building in central Tiraspol was reportedly hit by a grenade launcher.

Crafty_Dog

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Odessa is on the way to Moldova
« Reply #572 on: April 27, 2022, 01:34:07 PM »
Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War
5 MIN READApr 27, 2022 | 20:09 GMT





Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022.

(OLIVIER DOULIERY/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

While Russia is unlikely to invade Moldova in the short-to-medium term, a series of explosions in a Moldovan breakaway region near Ukraine could eventually grant Moscow a justification for doing so, in addition to destabilizing the pro-EU government in Chisinau. The attacks also risk distracting Kyiv from Russia's renewed offensive in the eastern Donbas region by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine. A spate of suspicious explosions in the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniestria starting on April 25 has stoked fears that Russia may soon launch an attack toward Transdniestria from the Ukrainian territory it's seized during the ongoing war. The explosions did not result in casualties, but prompted Transdniestria's government to raise the unrecognized republic's terrorist threat level to high and order the erection of checkpoints outside towns and cities and at the borders with the rest of Moldova and Ukraine.

The three incidents took place within 24 hours at Transdniestria's Ministry of State Security in the capital of Tiraspol, a military base near the village of Parkany, and the towers broadcasting Russian radio and television near the village of Mayak. On April 27, Transdniestrian authorities also claimed that shots were fired at housing in the village of Kolbasna after drones from Ukraine flew over a Russian arms depot there.
The explosions are probably an attempt by Russian or pro-Russian Transdniestrian political forces to stoke anti-Ukrainian sentiment and provide Russia justification to eventually intervene in the region by creating an alleged threat to Russian citizens of Transdniestria. After holding an emergency meeting of the country's Supreme Security Council on April 27, Moldovan President Maia Sandu told reporters that the Ukraine crisis had split Transdniestrians into two competing factions — presumably referring to those who seek to fuel tensions or even join Russia's fight against Ukraine, and those seeking to avoid escalation or getting involved in the war for fear of the massive casualties and destruction it could cause to the breakaway region. Sandu added that the recent explosions were indicative of this rift. Such increased tensions could serve to destabilize Moldova's pro-EU government with the threat of a Russian intervention, which the country's woefully understaffed and underfunded military is completely unprepared to resist.

On April 22, shortly before the series of explosions began, the acting commander of Russia's central military district said that if Russian forces were successful in seizing full control of southern Ukraine, Moscow could create a corridor to Transdniestria, where ''there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.'' Prior to the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Kyiv of discriminating against the Russian-speaking population in the country's eastern Donbas region. Many now, in turn, see the commander's use of similar language just days before the explosions as confirmation that Moscow is preparing to justify an imminent military action toward Transdniestria, where Russia already maintains approximately 1,500-2,500 troops, and where around half of the region's 500,000 residents are believed to hold Russian passports.

Transdniestrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky claimed that ''traces of [the recent] terrorist attacks'' came from Ukraine and urged Kyiv to investigate the infiltration of militant groups within its borders that could carry out such attacks in Transdniestria.

Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on April 26 that Russia was responsible for the terrorist activity in Transdniestria, and noted the explosions indicated Russian leaders saw occupying Moldova as necessary and wanted to open another line of attack against Ukraine to accomplish this. Arestovych later in a separate statement said that Transdenistria ''was not capable of capturing Chisinau,'' but Moldova ''could still be in big trouble and should turn to Romania and Ukraine for help.''

A Russian attack from occupied Ukraine linking up with Transdniestria is not feasible at this time, suggesting the recent explosions are in part aimed at pressuring Ukraine to deploy more troops near its southern border with Moldova, thereby distracting Kyiv from the main fight in Donbas. Russian military forces in southeastern Ukraine are currently not capable of conducting an attack toward Transdniestria, as such a move would involve capturing or bypassing the heavily defended cities of Odessa and Mykolaiv. But such a thrust into the region could be conducted in the future following an expansion of Russia's war efforts and national mobilization efforts, as well as mobilization and training of additional forces in Transdniestria. Additionally, as Ukraine is already de facto under complete naval blockade, there is little strategic urgency for Russia to launch a risky operation to seize all of southern Ukraine and link up with Trandneistria at this time. Therefore, the region playing a significant role in Russian affairs remains unlikely for the foreseeable future, though such discussions could resume following a mobilization in Russia or significant battle successes in the east that free Russian forces to reconsider offensive operations in that direction — a possibility that is likely months away at the earliest.

Media reports suggest many Transdniestrians believe joining the fight against Ukraine is not in the breakaway region's best interest. However, that will not stop local authorities or Russian troops from acting on Moscow's behalf at the needed moment.

Ukraine and Moldova may consider launching a preemptive attack on Transdniestria to ensure the pro-Russian separatists in the region don't have time to mobilize the population or launch an attack from the area at a time of Moscow's choosing. Russia, however, would see this as a major provocation, which will deter Kyiv and especially Chisinau from conducting such a risky operation.

Crafty_Dog

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NRO: The Dangers of a Desperate, Hostile Russia
« Reply #573 on: April 28, 2022, 03:27:45 PM »
Hmmm , , , which would we rather have?  An intact neutral Ukraine with Russia not dependent upon China, or , , ,

NRO:

The Dangers of a Desperate, Hostile Russia

On the menu today: As the reports of its atrocities against Ukrainian civilians pile up, the Russia before us today is both less frightening and more frightening than the one our diplomats thought they knew as recently as last year. The Russian military is now revealed to be “undisciplined rabble,” and we now know that its fearsome reputation was built on lies and propaganda. But a losing, humiliated Russia is a desperate, hostile entity, now openly talking about “demilitarizing NATO,” and that a nuclear strike is more likely than not.

Meanwhile, back here in the U.S., the risk of recession is very, very real.

The End of One Russia, the Birth of Another

Last spring, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine was still just an unusual buildup of troops at the border, President Biden declared that he wanted a “stable, predictable” relationship with Russia. As recently as October, Putin used similar terms to characterize the U.S.–Russia relationship: “Putin said Russia’s relations with the Biden administration have been ‘quite constructive’ and he personally has developed ‘working, stable relations’ with President Joe Biden.”

And that, in the eyes of many foreign-policy thinkers, was reasonable; Putin’s Russia was difficult but rational, a former great power that still commanded considerable influence around the globe, and a potential ally to the U.S. on arms control, fighting terrorism, and other issues. Last July, John Kerry, Biden’s special envoy on climate change, spoke with Putin for an hour and called the Russian leader “very forthcoming and thoughtful” about ways to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. “We can continue to feel the kind of cooperative possibility that emerged in the course of our conversation,” Kerry said.

Today, that perspective sounds unspeakably naïve. That vision of Russia as ornery but rational was always a polished public-relations illusion, meant to lull conflict-averse Western leaders into a false sense of security.

After the Bucha massacre, the use of cluster munitions near a preschool where civilians were sheltering, airstrikes hitting public squares, the Mariupol-theatre airstrike, the Mariupol-maternity-hospital airstrike, the two mass graves near Mariupol, the airstrikes on civilians lining up for food in Cherniv, the “deliberate killings, unlawful violence, and widespread intimidation against unarmed civilians across the Kyiv region,” the forced deportation of at least 500,000 Ukrainian citizens from Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine to Russia, the rape and impregnation of Ukrainian women as young as eleven, and so many other utterly indefensible horrors, only the most eagerly self-deluded have any illusions about the true Russia anymore.

The Russian army is brutal, dumb, sadistic, disorganized, poorly trained, and often incompetent. Its troops are the nastiest of bullies against the defenseless, but wilt in the face of organized resistance.

In the third month of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia looks both less scary and scarier than before. Russia is less scary because, clearly, its military forces are nowhere near as fearsome and capable as their reputation suggested. The Economist offers an anecdote about how the recent training successes of the Russian military were mostly smoke and mirrors:

Organizing NATO’s biggest military exercise since the Cold War kept Admiral James Foggo, then the commander of American naval forces in Europe and Africa, busy in the summer of 2018. Trident Juncture was to gather 50,000 personnel, 250 aircraft and 65 warships in the European Arctic in October. As logistically taxing as that sounds, it was small fry compared with what Russia was planning in Siberia in September. The Vostok exercises would be the biggest since the Soviet Union’s mammoth Zapad drills of 1981, boasted Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister: they would involve 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft and 80 warships.

This was a huge feat. “It was a big lift for us to get 50,000 people in the field,” recalled Admiral Foggo recently. “How did they do that?” The answer, he eventually realized, was that they did not do it. A company of troops (150 at most) at Vostok was counted as a battalion or even a regiment (closer to 1,000). Single warships were passed off as whole squadrons. This chicanery might have been a warning sign that not everything was as it seemed in the Russian armed forces, even before they got bogged down in the suburbs of Kyiv.

“It’s not a professional army out there,” said Admiral Foggo. “It looks like a bunch of undisciplined rabble.”

Perhaps we should be using the past tense when discussing the Russian military, because that army is a lot smaller than it was when the war started:

Russia has also lost more than 3,000 pieces of large equipment in battle, according to Oryx, an open-source intelligence tracker. The tally includes more than 500 main battle tanks, 300 armored fighting vehicles, 20 jet fighters and 30 helicopters.

Russia in recent years has produced around 250 tanks and 150 aircraft annually, according to Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington. That means Ukrainian forces in two months have destroyed the equivalent of at least two years of Russian tank production.

The U.S. believes Russia overall has lost roughly one-fourth of the combat force it initially had to invade Ukraine, a senior Pentagon official said last week, without providing details.

Tanks can be replaced, but the dead cannot be resurrected; this week, the U.K. Ministry of Defense estimated that 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed during the war so far. In a little more than two months, Russia’s military has suffered about half as many combat deaths as the U.S. military did in the three-year Korean War.

Despite the best propaganda efforts of the state, some Russians can see that what was supposed to be a quick and clean “special military operation” to decapitate the current regime in Kyiv and turn Ukraine into an obedient client state has turned into a long, ugly, bloody, and expensive slog that is just trying to grab some territory. And for those Russians most emotionally invested in the reputation of their country’s military, this invasion has brought little beyond epic humiliation:

In a viral rant posted by YouTuber and Spetsnaz special forces veteran Alexander Arutyunov, whose channel Razvedos has almost 18 million views, Arutyunov slammed the pivot to the eastern Donbas region.

He asked Putin directly: ‘Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, please decide, are we fighting a war or are we masturbating?

But Russia is more frightening because Putin has marched his regime and country into a desperate situation. He thought this invasion would end with him guaranteed to be remembered by Russians as the second “Vladimir the Great.” Now, he’s on course to be remembered as the most spectacularly reckless and self-destructive European leader since Adolf Hitler. Russia will be economically ruined, diplomatically isolated, globally denounced, and militarily neutered . . . all for a few stretches of bombed-out land on the other side of the pre-war border.

The worse the situation gets, the less Vladimir Putin has to lose. The stability of his regime and perhaps even his life are on the line.

Russian state media are now characterizing the invasion of Ukraine as a war with NATO — and considering all the aid that NATO countries are sending, all the intelligence the U.S. is sharing, and how the U.S. is helping Ukraine shoot down Russian planes, it’s not the most unreasonable assessment in the world.

God only knows whether the ranting and raving buffoons on Russian state television should be interpreted as just venting rage and frustration, or whether it is actually a deliberate choice to prepare the Russian public for coming military moves. But the rhetoric is getting bizarre and disturbing, talking about the need for a special military operation to “demilitarize NATO,” that NATO is “a collective Hitler,” that a nuclear strike seems probable, and that “we’re all going to die someday.”

ccp

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RIP but
« Reply #574 on: April 29, 2022, 01:23:41 PM »
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/28/politics/american-killed-ukraine/index.html

you have wife and new young child

and you go to Ukraine to risk your life......

what were they paying him to do this ?

not good judgement if you ask me.

""He was just a really thoughtful person. He always put everybody ahead of himself even when situations were so stressful,"

so thoughtful except to his own family


ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #575 on: April 30, 2022, 04:36:13 AM »
There is a lot of discussion in the western press, that Russia is losing, mostly because it has not yet achieved its goals. It should have won as even Stratfor above says the expectation was "if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly".

The criteria for winning a war is to meet objectives and not necessarily timelines set up by the west. While the west keeps harping that Russia withdrew from Kyiv, could it be that was just a feint to draw Ukrainian troops to Kyiv while it gobbled up the south and east. Ukraine is a large country, its near impossible to maintain supply lines up to Kyiv, what Russia can do is capture and keep all the south and east Russian speaking areas and that is what they are doing. They are still expanding near Kherson with a goal to move towards Odessa and threaten Mykolaiv. I also see that Russians are starting to pull back from the Kharkiv region (North east), which was meant to draw Ukrainian forces and keep them busy. Might even make a land bridge to Moldova (Russian speaking area of Transnystria).

Russia has energy and food security. I dont see Putin backing down. If pushed, he will use more force, which means Ukraine will be destroyed into rubble for decades. The wise thing for Ukr was to have elections in the Russian speaking areas and let them align with Russia. I see no scenario where Russia gives back captured territories. May 9 is victory day in Russia.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #576 on: April 30, 2022, 04:59:28 AM »
Pl. see this map and tell me how is Russia losing the war. The purple color is Russian speaking area before the invasion and the red pink is after the invasion. The red/pink areas will not be returned. Secondly, Russia has occupied the land mass adjacent to Crimea up to the Dnieper river, such that Ukr can no longer shut down the water supply to Crimea (which they did in the past). Yes, one can argue that its taking time, but Russia does care about public opinion and will not level everything.

« Last Edit: April 30, 2022, 05:02:26 AM by ya »

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #577 on: April 30, 2022, 05:20:00 AM »
Parity in this war would be if the attacks on Moscow and territory captured inside Russia were equal to the attacks on Kiev and territory captured inside Ukraine.

Assuming the areas not yellow on the map were what Russia wanted in the first place, land bridge to the port, Russia has already won.

G M

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #578 on: April 30, 2022, 06:39:10 AM »
Parity in this war would be if the attacks on Moscow and territory captured inside Russia were equal to the attacks on Kiev and territory captured inside Ukraine.

Assuming the areas not yellow on the map were what Russia wanted in the first place, land bridge to the port, Russia has already won.

Yes.

ccp

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Buchanan how far to we push? ME-> WW2 analogies do NOT hold anymore
« Reply #579 on: April 30, 2022, 12:52:31 PM »
https://www.creators.com/read/pat-buchanan/04/22/will-putin-submit-to-us-imposed-weakening

he uses a General McCarthy analogy

but I am coming to the conclusion that WW2 analogies are useless

there were not nuclear weapons till the end of WW2 and we were the only power to have them

that fact is gone forever

it is now more then ever really down to a game of chicken

so what if Putin does use a tactical nuc

do we respond with one , three , try to annihilate them with a first strike?

or what?


G M

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Re: Buchanan how far to we push? ME-> WW2 analogies do NOT hold anymore
« Reply #580 on: April 30, 2022, 01:59:08 PM »
https://www.creators.com/read/pat-buchanan/04/22/will-putin-submit-to-us-imposed-weakening

he uses a General McCarthy analogy

but I am coming to the conclusion that WW2 analogies are useless

there were not nuclear weapons till the end of WW2 and we were the only power to have them

that fact is gone forever

it is now more then ever really down to a game of chicken

so what if Putin does use a tactical nuc

do we respond with one , three , try to annihilate them with a first strike?

or what?

https://www.military.com/history/russias-dead-hand-soviet-built-nuclear-doomsday-device.html/amp

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #581 on: April 30, 2022, 04:28:03 PM »
If we keep sending weapons, a tactical weapon, perhaps an EMP device above Kiev is a distinct possibility. The USA is not likely to do much.


ccp

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photo op Nanc
« Reply #583 on: May 02, 2022, 06:17:07 AM »
Nancy's "secret" mission to Ukraine

got to get the 33 billion bill passed

her husband will somehow figure way to get cut

to get the funds to Ukraine  :wink:




G M

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Re: photo op Nanc
« Reply #584 on: May 02, 2022, 06:41:17 AM »
Nancy's "secret" mission to Ukraine

got to get the 33 billion bill passed

her husband will somehow figure way to get cut

to get the funds to Ukraine  :wink:

https://nypost.com/2022/01/14/nancy-pelosis-son-linked-to-firms-probed-by-feds/amp/

Crafty_Dog

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D1
« Reply #585 on: May 02, 2022, 08:33:52 AM »
Ukraine's military claims it sank two more Russian boats in the Black Sea. The vessels were allegedly patrol boats this time around, and Ukraine says it used Turkish TB-2 drones for the early morning strikes. That would be a notable contrast with Kyiv's new Neptune anti-ship missile, which Ukrainian officials said was used to sink Russia's much larger Black Sea flagship, Moskva, about three weeks ago.

That development follows news that Russian forces are seeking "permanent control" over territory seized across southern Ukraine. And the Kremlin is working to steal these lands "either as nominally independent 'People's Republics' or by annexing them to Russia," according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, writing Sunday evening.

Scenes from an occupation, week 10: The Russians severed cell phone and internet service across most of occupied southern Ukraine "by cutting fiber-optic cables and turning off power at base stations," the Wall Street Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov reported Sunday from the Zaporizhzhia region. But this phase of Moscow's invasion is stretching well beyond just the information realm; indeed, Trofimov reports, "occupation authorities are swiftly integrating these areas into Russia, appointing collaborationist administrations and introducing Russian documents, education programs and currency." That even includes "issuing newlyweds with Russian Federation wedding certificates" in the port city of Berdyansk.


DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine, WRM
« Reply #587 on: May 04, 2022, 10:07:53 AM »
Walter Mead: “The prospect of tactical nuclear strikes on the European mainland would, Mr. Putin undoubtedly hopes, test the cohesion of the NATO alliance. While nobody wants to be quoted on the record, senior Europeans are already whispering to sympathetic journalists about concerns that the Biden administration is escalating too far and too fast. Would France and Germany continue to back American policy if Russia strikes Ukrainian targets with nuclear warheads? Is American public opinion ready for a replay of the Cuban missile crisis? The Ukraine war is not yet 10 weeks old, and it has already revolutionized world politics. The next 10 weeks could be even more dramatic. President Biden could soon face as stern a test as any American president has since World War II. We must hope, and pray, that he is up to the job.” (Source: wsj.com)

G M

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Re: Ukraine, WRM
« Reply #588 on: May 04, 2022, 10:15:12 AM »
He's totally fine!



Walter Mead: “The prospect of tactical nuclear strikes on the European mainland would, Mr. Putin undoubtedly hopes, test the cohesion of the NATO alliance. While nobody wants to be quoted on the record, senior Europeans are already whispering to sympathetic journalists about concerns that the Biden administration is escalating too far and too fast. Would France and Germany continue to back American policy if Russia strikes Ukrainian targets with nuclear warheads? Is American public opinion ready for a replay of the Cuban missile crisis? The Ukraine war is not yet 10 weeks old, and it has already revolutionized world politics. The next 10 weeks could be even more dramatic. President Biden could soon face as stern a test as any American president has since World War II. We must hope, and pray, that he is up to the job.” (Source: wsj.com)

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #589 on: May 06, 2022, 04:10:21 AM »
All those Stingers arriving in Ukraine, could also end up elsewhere..say Europe. There are reports, that weapons are disappearing from Ukraine. Something to keep a watch on.

Crafty_Dog

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #590 on: May 06, 2022, 06:50:50 AM »
Indeed.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #591 on: May 07, 2022, 06:27:45 PM »
I have been monitoring Ukr/Russia war progress. The only place where Ukr is making progress is around Kharkiv in the North East. This could be real progress, or that Russia has decided taking on Kharkiv the second largest city may be difficult and they are pulling back to defensible positions (from where they still shell Kharkiv). The middle sector, Russia is making small advances. Kherson, near Mykolaiv/Odessa is at a standstill for now. I think they will activate that front, once Mariupol is settled, in the meantime they regroup and replenish supplies etc. My hunch is Russia will make atleast one attempt for Odessa, because that land locks Ukraine, all other major ports are in Russian hands.

Inspite of all the neg news on Russia (poor morale, logistics etc), on the ground situation is still in Russia's favor. My back of the envelope visual math suggests Russia now occupies about 28,000 sq miles, not counting Crimea. Crimea is itself around 10,000 sq miles...so total about 40,000 sq miles in round numbers. Dont think Putin will return anything.

« Last Edit: May 07, 2022, 06:39:00 PM by ya »


ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #593 on: May 08, 2022, 08:57:16 AM »
At some point the world will realize the media is lying...Ukr could lose more territory. We will fight to the last Ukrainian.

ya

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #594 on: May 08, 2022, 09:40:49 AM »
Next week Finland and Sweden decide if they submit their application to join Nato. Interesting times. Finland lost a significant chunk of land (Karjala) the last time they went to war with Russia.

Crafty_Dog

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Ukes will win
« Reply #595 on: May 09, 2022, 09:49:37 AM »

DougMacG

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Russia stealing Ukraine's food
« Reply #596 on: May 10, 2022, 07:06:41 AM »
Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have taken vast stores of grain from Ukraine and exported them to Russia, exacerbating the risk of shortages and hunger in areas under Russian control. Farmers in Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces reported that the Russians were “stealing their grain en masse,” according to a statement released over the weekend by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food. (Source: washingtonpost.com)
------------
Isn't that (another) crime against humanity?

Why do you starve the people you capture?  I thought (Russia alleges) these people want to be under Russian. Stealing their food exposes that tripe as bullsh*t. Does it also expose food shortages in Russia?

DougMacG

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Re: Ukraine
« Reply #597 on: May 10, 2022, 07:22:26 AM »
Trying to figure out the endgame, it looks like the map ya posted tells the story.

It's all complicated but key phrases, warm water port and land bridge describe the map of Russian gains.

ya wrote:  "My hunch is Russia will make at least one attempt for Odessa, because that land locks Ukraine, all other major ports are in Russian hands."

It looks like that is taking place now. I hope they fail.  Otherwise it will be hard to reverse gains already made without a real war risking world war. The map of the status quo is the likely the end point unless Odessa and the rest of the coastline falls.  Russia got (most of) what they wanted.

Crafty_Dog

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